Don’t Despair…Summer is Still Here! 9/6/21

Hello! Happy Labor Day, to all! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! The weather this past weekend was yet another 50/50 proposition. Saturday was easily a top 10 day across much of New England. With 100% of the possible sunshine, deep blue skies, light winds, low humidity and near perfect temperatures, you’d be hard pressed to find a nicer day anywhere on earth! It was a great day for enjoying anything, outdoors. Unfortunately, a warm front struggled to pass through the region on Sunday. This brought a lot of clouds, higher humidity, and even a few showers to some communities. Lucky for many, Labor Day itself is looking very pleasant, with a good amount of sunshine, and warm temperatures. After the Memorial Day & Fourth of July washouts, I would say this is more than acceptable!

Well, it’s that time of the year again, when the majority of folks believe summer is over. This is a relative concept. While Labor Day signals the unofficial end of summer, the astronomical end of summer does not arrive until September 22nd, when the autumnal equinox arrives. It’s true, we are losing daylight quicker than any other month, and the temperatures do begin to cool off. But I’m here to proclaim September could be the best month of the year weather wise, here in New England! Yes, September is the peak of hurricane season, but more times than not, New England experiences it’s best weather of the year during this month. While summertime heat typically is behind us, we are left with pleasantly warm days, and cool, crisp nights.

It can still get hot. Boston typically averages one ninety degree day in September. This means we can go several years without a ninety degree reading, then get a bunch all at once. I recall a few years ago an unprecedented heat wave in the middle of September here in Boston, when the city recorded 5 straight days of 90 degree heat! In a warming climate, it would not shock me to see 90 degree weather become more common in September around here. In fact, looking at some of the long range data, Boston could still see one or two more 90 degree days this September.

Last year, cool weather arrived early, abruptly ending summer in September. It was the coolest September in approximately 10 years. It wasn’t cold, but there were many brisk days, and it certainly felt like an early fall. However, things reversed in October, and it actually turned warm again. If you recall, October ended on a frigid note, with a historic pre-Halloween snowstorm in Boston, which was the largest on record! Fun fact, it was colder and more wintry on Halloween last year than it was on Christmas Day!

While November began on the cold side, an incredible two week stretch of Indian Summer weather with sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the 70’s is just what the doctor ordered for many before winter settled in.

For this year, I see some changes. For one, I do not see an abrupt end to summer. Rather a very slow step down to fall like weather, which may not truly arrive until the last 10 days of October. After a very brief chill, warmer than normal temperatures are overwhelming the country, and will be slowly pushing east, arriving to New England for the second half of September. How warm are we talking? Well, instead of high temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s, we may see highs in the 70’s and 80’s. As is almost always the case, there still may be brief cool snaps, just to remind us that winter is around the corner. Once beyond October, things begin to look murky. Early high latitude blocking may want to start winter earlier this year, perhaps by Thanksgiving? We shall see. I will look into this possibility the deeper we go into fall.

Overall, I’m expecting a warmer than average September. Typically, September high temperatures start of in the upper 70’s at the beginning of the month, then cool to the upper 60’s by months end. Nighttime lows start in the upper 50’s, and cool to the upper 40’s by months end. September is typically the driest month of the year in Boston, with about 3 1/2″ of rain on average. For this year, I’m expecting September to feature warmer than normal weather. As for precipitation, this is a bit tricky. With Ida blowing through last week, we have already received above average precipitation for the entire month! I’m expecting near average precipitation for the balance of the month. When you add Ida and the remaining rain we receive, it will turn into another very wet month for the record books in Boston.

How did August turn out this year? August continued the theme of extreme weather patterns this summer. While June was the hottest on record, July was one of the rainiest and cloudiest, August was a combination of both, featuring wet and very hot weather at the same time! Boston recorded 9 days of 90 degree temperatures in August, bringing the total up to a whopping 24 days this summer where temperature reached or exceeded 90 in Boston. In fact, when you add up all the departures from June 1st to August 31st, which they call meteorological summer, this summer stands as the hottest summer on record in Boston! Incredible!

Now for your tropical update. Wow, did Boston dodge a bullet with Ida! What a destructive storm, indeed! There are now close to 70 deaths attributed to this storm, with still many more unaccounted for. So tragic! Many of these deaths were linked to the catastrophic flooding not where the hurricane came ashore in Louisiana, but close by to us in New York City and New Jersey! While Boston escaped the flooding rains, the city still reported 4″ of rain. This pales in comparison to the 8 to 12″ of rain which fell as close by as Rhode Island, Connecticut and of course in New York and New Jersey. Let’s also not forget the fierce EF 3 tornado which ripped through southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. This tornado was a direct result of Hurricane Ida.

As in so many cases, when so much destruction occurs in many parts of the east coast, Boston seems to be in a protected bubble of sorts. While we had heavy rain, it could of been so much worse! After such a wet summer, the ground could not hold that much more water. Yes, some folks received water in their basement, but all in all, the severe flooding that was predicted, did not reach its full potential here in Boston. Which is just fine for all!

At this moment, Hurricane Larry is churning in the open Atlantic Ocean, as a category 3 storm. Larry is expected to curve towards the north and northeast, passing east of Bermuda, and well east of New England on Friday. Nevertheless, the ground swells emanating from Larry, will come crashing into east facing New England beaches this Friday and Saturday. If you’re heading to the beach, be on the look out for some big waves and dangerous rip currents.

We are rapidly approaching the peak for hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean, which is typically around September 10th. Conditions in the Atlantic continue to look favorable for more storms to develop and threaten the east coast. High pressure to our north, and low pressure to the south is always a warning sign to watch out for. We also have a second year La Nina emerging, which will limit upper level winds from shearing storms from developing. Add warmer than normal ocean temperatures, and we still should be on guard for more tropical cyclone developing. If no hurricanes have impressed you so far this year, fear not, Peter is on the list this year! Interestingly enough, my late father Nicholas, and late mom Rose are also on the list!

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to make a quick comment on our upcoming fall foliage season. It’s still preliminary, but we are now in the window when the leaves are going to begin to change color! Last years foliage season was variable. Leaves changed extremely early in northern New England, bringing with it some of the brightest colors in years. As is typical in drought years, the color was quick and intense, but mostly faded by Columbus Day weekend! Coastal areas did not fare as well, as many trees remained green right up until the Halloween snowstorm & freeze. From there, many leaves just turned brown, and dropped the second week of November. There was some good color, but it was patchy for sure.

I’m expecting a similar season this year. Northern New England did not see near as much rain as southern New England. However, I believe they received enough to keep leaves healthy enough for a strong season. So far, it hasn’t been as chilly as last year. Many saw frosts and freezes in late August last year, which set off the foliage quickly. There needs to be a light frost in the next couple weeks to begin the process up north.

Here in southern New England, I’m afraid foliage season is going to be another rough one. Too much rain this summer, and warm temperatures are going to prevent trees from changing colors on time. We may not see peak here in Boston until the second week of November, when it typically is the last week of October. Nevertheless, there is always beauty in the eyes of the beholder. There will be areas of brilliant color as always. Mother Nature always has the last say on how things turn out. There are always some surprises. Beginning in two weeks, I will be posting my fall foliage updates from across the region!

Now for your beach, boating and camping outlook. Expect fairly pleasant weather this week for all three outdoor activities. There may be a brief shower this evening, then a more consolidated line of showers and thunderstorms moving through Wednesday night and early Thursday. Otherwise, I’m expecting generally fair and mild weather this week, with mild to warm days, and cool nights. Best beach days appear to be today, tomorrow, Friday and Saturday. Sunday could be good as well, though there may be a few more clouds. I do not see any high winds this week for you boaters, though there could be some scattered storms this evening, then again Wednesday night early Thursday. There’s always the chance of gusty winds near any storms. Also, be aware of those ground swells rolling in from Hurricane Larry! Camping weather looks good this week. Just be prepared for showers Wednesday night. Otherwise expect mild days, and cool nights. Perfect for camping!

Here’s your latest weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I’m giving this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect mainly sunny and warm weather this afternoon, with highs near 80. It will still feel a bit on the muggy side. A late day cool front will be approaching the region, which may bring a scattered shower or thunderstorm to some communities.

After this front clears the coast this evening, look for cooler and drier weather to flow into New England! Skies will clear overnight, and temperatures will fall into the 50’s by dawn.

Tuesday will feature brilliant blue skies, perhaps a carbon copy of last Saturday? Expect near 100% of the possible sunshine, and high temperatures mainly in the 70’s to near 80. Tuesday night should feature no weather problems, with fair skies and light winds.

Wednesday may start off with some sun, but clouds will tend to increase during the day. A cold front will be approaching from the west, and along that front there will be the chance fora line of showers and thunderstorms moving through. In general, expect a quarter to half inch of rain to water the lawns and gardens.

This activity should move off the coast Thursday morning, leaving clearing skies and sunshine for the rest of the day, along with pleasant temperatures. Expect similar weather to continue for your Friday and all day Saturday, with sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, with daytime highs in the 70’s and nighttime lows in the 50’s. Perfect September weather!

A very weak front will be passing through on Sunday. I would not cancel any outdoor plans at this point. I can only see a brief light shower at some point during the day. If anything, it may just bring more clouds than the weather on Saturday. We shall see, it still could turn out to be a stellar day with plenty of sun.

Well, that’s about it for today my friends! It’s almost time for me to resume weekly weather blogs. Let’s say beginning on the week of the autumnal equinox. This is still subject to change, but I will keep you updated. In my next post, slated for September 20th, I will be talking about my fall forecast, and fall timetable such as first frosts and what we typically experience in autumn here in New England. I will also have my first fall foliage and camping forecast! Yes, things are moving quickly! In the meantime, no need to despair just yet, I will inform everyone when it’s time to hit the panic button! Enjoy the beautiful weather!

Happy Anniversary to my sister Pam & her husband, Michael!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

 

Henri (mostly) Spares New England…8/23/21

Hello, friends! I hope everyone is enjoying their, summer! Well, it looks like New England dodged yet another catastrophe! Hurricane Henri (pronounced on-ree) had plans on being the first land falling hurricane to strike New England since Hurricane did Bob back in 1991. As it turned out, Mother Nature had a different idea, and the hurricane drought lives on another day here in New England.

Overall, it was a 50/50 weekend around here weather wise. Saturday was tropical, with billowy cumulus clouds, along with deep blue Caribbean skies. With the warm temperatures, it turned into a pretty nice beach day. While Sunday was not a beach day, you would be surprised to know there was a hurricane watch up for much of Cape Cad just 24 hours prior.

After a couple feeder bands swung through the eastern part of Massachusetts, the rest of the day was just cloudy with a slight breeze at times. In fact, some places even saw the sun come out during the afternoon! This left many folks wondering, what happened with Henri?

The short answer to this question is nothing happened with Henri! Henri arrived, perhaps not exactly how many envisioned. True, the winds were not as strong as we anticipated in our area, and not as much rain fell, but it was never supposed to be a hurricane in Boston. To their credit, National Weather Service out of Norton, never issued a tropical storm watch or warning for the Boston area during the entire event. I say this with every storm I forecast, there are always are going to be some surprises!

We have no control at what these storms do or do not do. Though you can make an argument that some people do think they can control the weather! I have mentioned this before, but there’s just too much build up to these storms. They never have a chance to perform to their expectations. Between social media platforms, chat rooms, the latest & greatest computer models, news media outlets and general technology today, we smother these storms to death, even before they develop!

Perhaps you may not of known, but weather is big business! News media hype theses storms up to attract viewers, which in turn generates more viewers, and ultimately more revenue. I’m not particularly targeting any outlet. Personally, I believe the stations in Boston do a solid job with storm coverage. Maybe a little too much at times, but that’s the nature of the business. The meteorologists are always placed in a very difficult position as to not wanting to over hype the storm, and not sounding urgent enough to prepare folks as to what to expect.

I grew up and still live in Boston, and I still enjoy watching storm coverage, especially when there’s a big one! There’s a fine line of telling it how it is, and embellishing a story. For the most part, I feel Boston news media tells it how it is, in regards to storm coverage.

Forecasting tropical storms is as tricky as it gets! Though computer models have advanced considerably over the years, there is still a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to forecasting the track and intensity of these storms. As fast as they’re inputting data into computer models, the atmosphere is already changing the equation!

At one point, Henry’s track was to bring it straight north towards Buzzards Bay, then towards Boston. This would of been a much bigger deal on the Cape if this track were to verify. Fortunately for us, later computer model runs trended further west. At one point it was over Long Island, before settling on southwest corner of Rhode Island.

With Henri, there were certain factors that made this very concerning for us here in New England. First, computer models were forecasting Henri to strengthen into at least a category 1 hurricane about 500 miles south of New England. The fear was that Henri was passing over the very warm Gulf Stream waters, and was expected to intensify further. Just looking at past history, there have been hundreds of tropical systems that pass over the Gulf Stream that have rapidly intensified, from a category one to a three just within 24 hours!

Fortunately for us, Henri barely achieved hurricane status (74 mph winds) Saturday night. By the time it made it up to the waters south of New England, Henri quickly began to weaken to tropical storm status. Nonetheless, Henri officially made landfall as a tropical storm at 12:15 PM in Westerly, Rhode Island. Oddly enough, tropical storm Elsa made landfall in the exact same location back in July, at 12:15 PM!

While we just had some breezy conditions here in Boston, Cape Cod experienced winds of between 40 and 50 mph. As you moved west towards Rhode Island, winds increased to between 50 and 60 mph. At the height of the storm, winds were clocked between 60 and 70 mph close to the center of landfall. This location received the most damage, with trees and power lines down. Another surprise was the flooding that developed across the Hudson River Valley, New Jersey and down into New York City. My niece Alex messaged us saying there was some serious flooding going on in the subway system in New York. Some locations received up to 10″ of rain!

I have mentioned it before, but I will mention it again. We are on borrowed time here in New England. The last land falling hurricane to strike the region was Hurricane Bob, way back in 1991. Before then, there was a dying and weakening Hurricane Gloria back in 1985. Bob made landfall in Newport Rhode Island as a category 2 hurricane, then cut across southeastern Massachusetts, exiting off the coast in Scituate, Ma. While I just remember it being a wet & windy day here in Boston, the Cape was hit hard in that storm, with winds up to 125 mph, and a 10 foot storm surge!

Back in 1985, Hurricane Gloria suddenly intensified to category 4 hurricane off the mid Atlantic coast. This set off mass panic in the New England region as the storm was tracking basically due north. By the time it was crashed into Long Island, Gloria was rapidly disintegrating, and falling apart.

Nonetheless, it arrived as a category one hurricane, tracking up through western Massachusetts, before bending northeast into Canada. I remember standing on my front porch with my sister Valerie, who was home from college that weekend, watching the fierce hurricane force wind gusts. After the storm we took a walk around the neighborhood and were surprised by how many trees and branches had fallen.  This was my last recollection of a true tropical type of system here in the Boston area that resulted in significant tree damage.

We have to go way back to 1960 when Hurricane Donna took a classic track up the east coast, passing just west of Boston. By reading historic accounts, this was a very dangerous storm, that brought significant tree damage and flooding to the eastern Massachusetts.

It’s not a matter of if, but when the next major hurricane is going to strike the region. With the population and real estate built up so much greater than 60 years ago, there is going to be a huge price to pay with damage and casualties. Just because Henri did not live u to some expectations, this is the second tropical storm of the season to track towards New England and have some impacts on our region. We are only now heading into peak hurricane season, which reaches its maximum on September 10th, but continues through September, even into the start of October some years. There is still plenty of time for another storm or two to threaten our region. The fact we have already had two tropical storms this summer is quite concerning to me. This could be a primer for a bigger storm to track up the coast into New England. If something does develop, I will be sure to inform everyone if a storm threatens!

Just a quick note about the weather patterns for the rest of August and into September. If you enjoy warm temperatures, and an extended summer, I have some good news for you! From what I can see, it does not appear as if summer will be in any hurry to retreat this year. We are currently at 20 ninety degree days in Boston this summer. We could receive another two this week. The all time record is 30 days back in 1983. If we can get up to 24 before the end of August, it’s not out of the question Boston could make a run at the record. Admittedly, it’s a long shot, We would have to have a very hot September. I remember a few years back Boston had a five day heat wave in the middle of September…so it’s not out of the question! The bottom line, I’m expecting summery weather to stick around this year at least up to the autumnal equinox which arrives on September 22nd. Enjoy!

Time for your beach, boating and camping forecast. Best beach days this week appear to be today, tomorrow, Wednesday, most of Thursday, Friday and most of the upcoming weekend! Looks pretty good overall. Best chance of showers is late tonight, then again later on Thursday or Thursday night. Friday may start damp, but should turn into a nice day. This weekend looks mainly dry, but a bit cooler, with lower levels of humidity. Best boating days look to be tomorrow and Wednesday, then again Friday and most if not all of the upcoming weekend! Campers should be on alert for overnight showers tonight, muggy and hot weather Tuesday through Thursday, then more showers later Thursday, followed by cooler and drier weather for the upcoming weekend. A taste of September, perhaps?

Now for your weekly outdoor weekly summer activity forecast. I am rating this week an 8 out of 10. Expect warm and muggy weather for the rest of today. There are some isolated thunderstorms in the area, mainly across the interior this afternoon. There have even been a few isolated weak tornadoes observed. This is due to the unstable air mass from the remnants of Henri.

Speaking of Henri, the remnants still have to track through Massachusetts overnight. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to track across the state from between 8 PM to 2 AM. Some of these storms could contain strong winds, vivid lightning, and torrential downpours.

This activity will clear the coast before morning. Thereafter, expect a very warm to hot Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. It will also be on the muggy side, but we’re all used to that by now!

Watch for hot and humid weather to be the theme both Wednesday and Thursday this week. High temperatures will reach the lower 90’s each day, with high levels of humidity, making it feel even hotter than that! Later Thursday, there will be a cold front approaching. Be on the lookout for late afternoon thunderstorm and evening thunderstorms.

Right now, I’m going with this front clearing the coast, setting us up for a cooler and drier air mass to sweep into New England for the period Friday through the weekend. Highs will be in the 70’s, and lows in the 50’s. Time to open the windows up and let the fresh air in!

Well, that’s about it for today! My next blog will be posted on September 6th, unless otherwise noted, or severe weather threatens. In that post, I will have my review for August, as well as preview September. I will also have a new tropical outlook, as well as a quick preview of autumn! In the meantime, soak up all the summer you can now, the countdown to autumn is on!

Happy Birthday to my niece Alex! (August 28th)

Thanks for reading,

Pete

 

 

 

 

Pendulum Swings >>> Summer! 8/9/21

Hello! I hope everyone is doing, well! While difficult to stay away from the blog, I’m happy to report the break is doing me good! Last we spoke back on July 26th, we talked about this summers quirky weather patterns. Since then, there has been no shortage of “quirkiness” in our weather patterns. From flooding rains, to fall like temperatures, punctuated with temperatures in the 90’s, we have just about seen it all this summer!

This past weekend featured hot & muggy weather returning Saturday, as temperatures soared up into the low 90’s in the Boston area. As has been the case most of this summer, this came with a clause along with it. Yes, it was hot, but that darn haze in the sky made it seemed overcast. Sunday was cooler, but still featured mostly cloudy skies. We just can’t seem to be able to string a few nice days in a row this summer, with genuine blue skies.

I was chatting with my brother John the other day about the summer pattern, and he hit the nail on the head saying,  “we were due for a dud summer!” It’s a bit more complicated than that, but he’s right! Many people forget just how glorious of a stretch we’ve had the past 3 or 4 summers, with nearly perfect beach weather for days on end, week after week, month after month! It hardly ever rained past few summers, and temperatures were warm to hot nearly every day. As an added bonus, several of those summers featured “endless summers” where summers extended deep into September, in some cases even October!

It’s a tale of two climate extremes. While the west is burning with wildfires, the eastern part of the country, including us here in New England, is water logged, with too much rain. To add insult, prevailing jet stream winds have been blowing plumes of smoke across the country, turning our atmosphere into something which you might see if you were on Mars! Smoky skies have led to hazy conditions during the day, and the sun appearing as a red fireball at sunset. Occasionally, winds have actually brought the smoke down to ground level, with many people reporting actually smelling the smoke in the air!

These plumes of smoke are coming all the way from California, and Alberta Canada. My weather friend Remy is currently residing in California, and is posting some astonishing pictures of the wildfire called “Dixie” which is now the second largest wildfire in state history! From wildfires to flooding rains, this summer has seen its share of extremes. But…could it actually turn even more extreme?

The short answer to this question is …yes! There is no signs of the wildfire season diminishing anytime soon in the west. In fact, as we go deeper into late summer, early fall, developing Santa Ana winds typically intensify in California, with near hurricane force winds gusts blowing through mountain canyons towards the coastal plain. These are very dry winds, blowing offshore from the mountains to the seacoast. Unless a major pattern change occurs in the next few weeks, you can expect to hear catastrophic news coming out of California. A developing second year La Nina typically means dry weather patterns for most of California.

Here in the east, as if we haven’t had enough this summer, we are now entering the most active period of hurricane season, which peaks around September 10th. It begins ramping up on August 10th, peaks on September 10th, and begins to diminish on October 10th. So far, it’s been pretty quiet in the Atlantic. However, according to expert tropical meteorologists, things are about to become very active in the Atlantic! I have mentioned it before earlier this season, due to prevailing winds and above average ocean temperatures, New England is vulnerable to be threatened by a tropical storm or hurricane landfall later this summer or early fall.  This would be the icing on the cake for this summer.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I would place our chance at seeing a tropical type storm blow through our area this year at about 60%. The concern is that we haven’t had a bonafide hurricane strike New England since Donna, way back in September of 1960. Yes, there have been several tropical storms that have tracked through our region, some even bringing high winds and some tree damage. As recent as this past July we had tropical storm Elsa blow through, with torrential downpours of rain and gusty winds.

And of course there was “Bob” back in August of 1991. Bob was a category 2 hurricane, as it crossed southeastern Massachusetts, from Narraganset, Rhode Island, passing off the coast of Scituate, Mass. Cape Cod bore the brunt of this storm, as they were on the dangerous right quadrant. Significant damaged occurred, with winds of up to 125 mph, and a very impressive storm surge of between 10 and 15 ft up into Buzzards Bay. Because Boston was on the northwest side of the storm, I just remember it being a windy, rainy day here in Boston. Somewhat like a summer nor’easter.

As we discussed, it’s been a summer of extremes. Boston saw their hottest June on record, capped off with a 100 degree temperature on the last day of the month. The pattern abruptly changed in July, when many recorded their wettest July on record. Boston observed their second wettest month on record, but recorded the most number of rainy days in any July. It was also much cooler in Boston. While we still managed to receive 4 ninety degree days, this was two short of the average. Overall, the month finished nearly 3 degrees below normal, a very rare below average summer month in Boston!

After experiencing the hottest June on record, the wettest July on record, many are wondering what August will bring?? After a shaky start, I believe the pendulum is going to swing the other way, once again. I am seeing signs of a hotter than normal month in Boston. This should come as no surprise, as I was forecasting this to occur from June. A surging second year La Nina is going to overpower any Greenland block, and send the jet stream packing up into Canada for the foreseeable future. This means I am expecting surges of hot weather for the balance of August, and even into September. I am also expecting less rainy weather, so if you thought summer was done, think again!

After Saturday’s 92 degree high temperature, Boston is now up to 16 days of 90 degree temperatures. Normal for the entire season is 14. After a brief cool down today and part of tomorrow, the hot weather is going to surge back into New England starting on Wednesday, and lasting into Friday. If this holds true, it looks like we will be adding another 3 days of ninety degree temperatures. This will bring the total up to 19 days this summer in Boston. My revised forecast made back on the summer solstice increased my number of 90 degree days from 14 – 18,  to 19 – 23. I’m happy it looks like we will reach the bottom threshold of my number.

However, I’m becoming increasingly concerned that it may keep on going. Yes, it will cool off this weekend, but heat & humidity may return again next week, and continue until the end of the month. Then of course we have September. Boston typically averages one 90 degree day in September. But that was using the old averages. I remember growing up as a kid hitting 90 in September was a rare event. Even though we did not hit 90 last September, there have been previous years recently when we not only hit 90, but had legit heat waves, with 5 to 7 ninety degree days.

The most 90 degree days we have on record here in Boston was back in 1983, when Boston received 30 of them. It’s not impossible, that if we receive another 4 or 5 after this week, would bring us up to 23 or 24 days, then have a hot spell in September, that we could challenge that record. If July wasn’t so cool, I believe this record would of been smashed this year! Either way, it looks to be a bookend summer, with hot at the beginning, cool in the middle, and hot again at the end!

Time for your beach, boating and camping forecast. Best beach and boating weather for this week appear to be Wednesday through Friday, then again this Sunday. Wildcard days are tomorrow, and Saturday. While these days may feature some clouds and a shower, it’s dependent on many factors, and could turn into nice days. Best chances for thunderstorms will be the typical summertime afternoon and evening storms, Wednesday through Friday. With the excessive heat & humidity expected, these storms can contain torrential downpours and vivid lightning. If you’re on the beach or boating, keep an eye to the sky. If you see building dark cumulonimbus clouds or hear thunder, seek shelter as soon as possible! Should be decent week for camping, although be prepared for the chance of an afternoon and evening thunderstorm! Otherwise, expect warm temperatures this week. A stronger cold front will push through the region on Saturday, bringing with it more chances of thunderstorms. Sunday should feature nice weather, with sunny skies, and cooler temperatures, but still warm.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect some hazy sun for the balance of your Monday afternoon. A slow moving system off our coast may try to spin in some showers towards evening. Some of these showers may contain localized areas of brief heavy rain. Temperatures will be a bit below average, with highs only in the 70’s.

Expect similar weather tonight. I wouldn’t cancel any plans, just have the umbrella handy, just in case! Skies should be mainly cloudy, with areas of fog and perhaps some drizzle.

Look for similar conditions to continue into Tuesday morning, with cloudy skies and a few scattered showers. As the day progresses, watch for conditions to improve, especially after midday. It should be mainly sunny during the afternoon, with a warm breeze. Tuesday evening should feature pleasant summer weather for outdoor activities.

You can expect heat wave conditions to surge into much eastern Massachusetts for the period Wednesday through Friday. Expect high temperatures to be in the low to mid 90’s each day, with the hottest weather occurring on Thursday, with highs in the mid 90’s. In addition, dew point temperatures will be in the 70’s, which will make it feel very tropical out and downright oppressive! This may lead the National Weather Service to issue excessive heat advisories for much of the Boston metropolitan area, with feel like temperatures between 98 and 105 degrees.

Looking for some relief? Well, if you can’t get to a pool or the beach, Mother Nature will try and help out with some afternoon and evening thunderstorms! If you are lucky enough to receive one, it may offer some temporary relief.

A strong cold front will cross our region on Saturday. Depending upon the time, there may be additional showers and thunderstorms during the day. Timing is difficult to pin down at this point, but it doesn’t look like an all day washout by any means. It will be about 10 degrees cooler off of the heat wave temperatures. This means low to mid 80’s seem reasonable.

After the front clears the coast, Sunday should feature mainly sunny skies and drier conditions, with less humidity. Some models are hinting the front stalls just off the coast, keeping clouds in our region. Right now, I am going with the optimistic model, bringing more sun than clouds on Sunday. Temperatures should be near average, with highs in the lower 80’s.

Well that’s about it for now, friends! My next blog is scheduled for August 23rd., unless otherwise noted. I will let you know if I see any tropical storms that may threaten our region. I will also have a new beach, boating and camping forecast. In addition, I will have a peek into what September may bring! In the meantime, be happy the pendulum is swinging towards summer…when it changes again, we all know what comes next!

Thanks for reading!

Be safe

Pete

Quirky Summer Pattern Continues…7/26/21

Hello! Nice to be back writing again, today! I appreciate everyone’s patience as I continue to need the alternate schedule for the blog. I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Weather wise, it was a 50/50 weekend, around here. Saturday was arguably the best day of the month (maybe the entire summer), with nearly 100% sunshine, warm temperatures, low humidity and light winds. A great day to be relaxing at the beach, going on a hike, or just doing some gardening. These days have been few and far between this July. Sunday, we returned back to old habits. A warm front was traversing the area, which brought lots of clouds, and muggier conditions. There were even a couple rounds of downpours that traversed the region during the course of the day. Certainly not a washout that we’ve seen several times this month, but not the stellar weather we saw on Saturday either.

As the title of the blog says, it’s been a quirky summer around here, to say the least! I wish I could say we are done with the “quirkiness” but that doesn’t seem to be the case, at least for this week! My brother in law Jae just texted me asking if the summer pattern is settling in? No, I do not believe a persistent summer pattern is moving in at this time. In fact, it’s going to feel more like fall later this week into the upcoming weekend. I honestly feel bad for folks who look forward to summertime weather. June is an awfully busy month, and many folks don’t really begin their summer vacations until July. So as summery as it was, most were still wrapping up the school year, work, and spring projects around the home.

As much as I love fall & winter, I can relate with their sentiments. I too love summer, going to the beach, spending time outdoors with family & friends, fishing, hiking and camping. After several of near flawless summer patterns, this year is proving to be much more volatile, to say the least!

After a glorious spring, the transition from spring to summer this year was turbulent this year, as Memorial Day weekend holiday was a complete washout. After the boundary lifted north of New England, searing heat surged into region and persisted right up until the last day of the month. It was so hot, that Boston recorded it’s hottest June in history! Logan Airport recorded an astounding 9 days of 90 degree temperatures, and even 100 degrees on the last day of the month! Add another two in May, and three here in July, and we are already at the average of 14 for the entire season!

The big surprise is occurring here in July. July is typically our hottest month of the year, but it’s actually averaging cooler than June! Boston normally sees six 90 degree days in July, but this year we have only seen 3. If we don’t nick 90 today or tomorrow, there are no more chances for 90 degree heat for the rest of the month. After a record fast start, the 90 degree days have slowed to a trickle. We are running nearly 3 degrees below average this July. This is quite a turn of events since nearly all computer models were forecasting New England to receive well above average temperatures this July.

My official forecast updated on the summer solstice calls for between 19 and 23 ninety degree days in Boston this summer. My original forecast of 14 to 18 was made on May 24th. I’m now wondering just how many more times Boston is going to reach 90. Perhaps my friends and family were correct when they recommended I leave the original forecast?? Interesting to point out, if I had left the forecast as is, it already would of verified, seeing we currently have receive 14 ninety degree days!

Let us not forget the record rainfall many have experienced this month. Worcester has already broken the record for wettest July on record, and Boston is standing at number two, with an outside shot of eclipsing the record before the month ends on Saturday. If Boston does not receive a drop of rain for the rest of the summer, we would still end up having a wetter than normal summer!

I had a nice chat with a weather friend Scott on Twitter last evening. We were discussing the volatility of this summer’s weather patterns, and what could be in store for us the rest of the summer. We completely agreed that the summer has had its high points, but overall, has featured too much rain, at all the wrong times! Scott believes we are pretty much done with the hot weather for the rest of the summer, and it will go into the books as a cooler than average summer!

Indeed, if August continues this cool regime, it may end up being a cooler than average summer…something we have not seen around here since 2009! My thinking is similar, but with a few twists. While on paper it may appear to be a cooler than average summer, the optimal word here is “average.” We have already reached our quota for an a typical summer of 90 degree days. We also experienced the hottest June on record here in Boston. Record keeping can be very misleading. If one were to look back on this summer, they may think it was just a rainy cool summer, especially if just looking at the general averages. If they looked deeper, they may be surprised that we reached the average number of 90 degree days, and also experienced the hottest June on record. To determine whether we see a warmer than normal summer or cooler than normal, the weather in August and September will be the deciding factor in this regard.

I always like to compare the seasons to help people understand where we are at. You wouldn’t say winter is over on January 26th? In fact, Boston’s most severe winter on record of 2014-15 didn’t get fully going until exactly on January 26th! In other words, there is still plenty of summer ahead of us. In my book, we are only about at the mid point of summer. While we may of seen the hottest temperatures of the summer in June, I still believe there will be more surges of warm to hot weather from mid August to mid September this year. In fact, the warm weather may continue into October, as it has the past several years.

It may take its time, but I do believe my updated forecast of 19 to 23 days will eventually be the correct way to go! In the meantime, many folks want to know what the heck is going on?? Well, for one thing, a very unusual pattern featuring the Greenland block,  has strengthened and persisted this July. This has high pressure over Greenland, while forcing the jet stream south of our region. Dr. Judah Cohen just mentioned today that this winter like pattern is difficult to pull off in mid winter, never mind here in July!

What this does is help cold fronts that normally stay up in Canada during this time of the year, to be forced south of New England, allowing cooler air to filter down from southern Canada. While all this is happening, the Bermuda High pressure is flexing its muscles trying to force warm muggy air to push up into New England. Many times this month, the warm air has lifted up over the cool air. With eastern Massachusetts being very close to this boundary, this has resulted in torrential downpours and record rainfall amounts.

This pattern may persist for the first 10 days of August. However, I’m seeing signs that there is another La Nina (cool water in southern Pacific Ocean) is developing. Two things typically occur when this happens. First, you will notice a marked increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, perhaps even here along the east coast. Second, this should be strong enough to kick the trough of low pressure (cool & wet) north of New England, allowing for warm to at times hot weather to make its way back to our region the deeper we go into August and September. This is one reason why I still believe we will reach my forecast for the number of 90 degree days this summer. A very odd summer, indeed!

Now for your beach & boating forecast, as well as a new camping outlook. Expect more rapid changes this week. Expect best beach days this week to be today, tomorrow, then again on Saturday, though maybe a bit too cool for some? There may be other periods, but you’ll have to pick your times around unsettled conditions. Rain showers are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then again on Thursday into early Friday. Saturday looks nice at this point, only to have showers move back in again on Sunday. Not too confident on that Sunday forecast, there’s still an outside shot it remains dry, as timing could change. I do not see any strong winds or rough seas for boating this week, but unsettled weather conditions with periods of showers and fog means keep an eye on the forecast for best times. If you are planning on doing some camping this week, be prepared for rain at times! Also, a sweep of cooler air arriving from Canada later this week will mean chilly night time temperatures, especially across the interior and north.

Now for you weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect mainly sunny and hot weather for the rest of your Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be approaching 90 in many locations. It will also be on the muggy side, so the heat index will be up there too.

I’m expecting a fine mid summer evening out there, with warm breezes, and fair skies. Watch for the waning “Thunder Moon”, rising from the east. Overnight, it will remain fair, and warm, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Watch for another hot day on Tuesday. If we get enough sun, temperatures may make another run towards 90. An approaching cold front means that there is a chance of a late afternoon and evening thunderstorm. As has been the case this whole month, this front will sluggishly move through the region Tuesday night. This means there is the potential for more showers and thunderstorms overnight, into Wednesday morning.

After a damp start, watch for much cooler & drier air to filter into the region during Wednesday. I’m not expecting too much additional rainfall on Wednesday, more than it will feel more September like than anything else. Expect highs to struggle into the 70’s, with mainly cloudy skies, though some sunny breaks can not be ruled out.

Watch for continued cooler than normal weather to be the theme through the rest of the week into this upcoming weekend. A storm system tracking northwest of New England will drag a warm front through our region later Thursday and into Thursday night. Expect unsettled weather to return with the chance of rain. The cold front should sink south of the region early Friday. leading to a drier day, with some breaks of sun by afternoon. It will remain on the cool side, with highs in the 70’s.

Right now, this weekend is looking to be similar to this past weekend. Expect the better of the two weekend days to be Saturday, with plenty of sun, and slightly warmer temperatures. It may be too cool for the beach for some, but the weather is looking very nice for many outdoor activities. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70’s.

Expect another system to approach New England on Sunday. Timing will be critical, but at the very least expect more cloudiness to overspread the region, and depending on the speed of the system, there may be showers developing across the region during the afternoon. Latest guidance shows it moving in a bit slower, holding the rain off until Sunday night and early Monday, but no guarantee for that scenario playing out, either. In any event, it does not look as nice as Saturday does.

Well, that’s about it for this week, friends! My next blog will be written on August 9th! In this post, I will review our final numbers for July, and let you know how I think August will be for us this year. I will also have a new beach, boating and camping forecast, as well as take a quick look to see if anything is cooking in the tropics. In the meantime, for those who love summer weather, please slowly step back from the cliff! As a reminder, below average temperatures this time of the year is still warm!

Be safe, everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

 

Enough Already! 7/12/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their 4th of July holiday last weekend! As expected, the weather was not ideal for many outdoor activities…especially Friday and Saturday, when it was an all out washout around here. There was slight improvement on Sunday and Monday, but showers arrived again just in time for the fireworks display on Boston Common Saturday evening. And it wasn’t just the rain. Record cold high temperatures took the luster away from folks celebrating this national celebration. To put it bluntly…it was brutal.

In fact, most people would agree the weather this entire month up to this point has been brutal. And in fact, every  day has featured at least some rainfall in Boston, with many days featuring torrential downpours. We even had a tropical storm named Elsa blow through the region last Friday. If that wasn’t enough, torrential downpours greeted commuters heading back into work this morning. To nobody’s surprise, this now stands as the 3rd wettest July on record in Boston. The wettest July on record was set 100 years ago back in 1921, when the city measured 11.69″ of rain. So far this July we have received 8.89″. With nearly two thirds of a month left, it’s not out of the question we could break this record, becoming the wettest July in recorded history.

The weather this past weekend was consistent with what we’ve been experiencing. Cloudy and rather cool on Saturday, leading to a cloudy and rather muggy day on Sunday. Showers held off until Sunday night, but it was no beach weekend by any stretch of the imagination. This has led many family and friends expressing their dissatisfaction to me with our current summer pattern! Too bad the weather patterns could not of been reversed, with June being the wettest, and July the hottest! Many folks plan for vacations starting in July, and count on decent summer weather.

I was expecting a summer featuring some extreme swings, but had not envisioned experiencing the hottest June on record, followed by the wettest July on record! I was speaking with my brother in law Jae last evening, and mentioned to him that things could still yet reverse again in August. He lives for summer weather, and has been very disappointed with the weather patterns so far here in July.

So where do we go from here? Are we doomed for a wet and cold summer? I don’t believe so. Certainly we are not experiencing a summer like we had the past two years. I was speaking with my sister Pam today and mentioned to her that those summers were unrealistic for us here in New England. For nearly three straight summers, we experienced I would say a near record amount of beach days.

Does this mean we should be punished with a cold, wet summer? No, I don’t believe Mother Nature works that way. However, I was not anticipating a dry, hot summer, with endless beach days. My summer forecast called for more precipitation than previous years, with rapid changes in temperatures. Though it has been on the extreme side, I would say it’s working out fairly well so far.

I called for a hotter than normal summer too. June set us off on fire, with all time record hot temperatures for the month. Boston recorded nine 90 degree days in June alone. Add the two from May, and another two at the start of July, and we stand at 13 for the season so far. My call at the summer solstice was for between 19 and 23. No doubt, we’ve slowed way down in racking up the 90 degree days. They’re not coming fast and furious as they did earlier. It’s entirely possible June was the hottest month of the summer, against the averages.

I’m very surprised how the cool air has suppressed the heat dome here in July. So far, Boston is experiencing slightly below average temperatures for this month. This is a huge surprise to the folks at NOAA who were calling for well above average temperatures for July here in New England. As I mentioned above, we still have nearly two thirds of the month to go, so it will be interesting to see if the cool air can hold on to keep it below average…a very tough feat to accomplish in a warming climate, and the hottest month of the year. We may sneak one 90 degree day later this week, then a more pleasant air mass could settle into New England come next week, with a good chance of a much drier pattern.

Thereafter, it’s anyone’s guess! August could indeed turn around once again and feature hotter than normal pattern returning. I always say July is the wildcard month as to how the summer is going to go, but this year I believe August is going to determine just hot this summer is going to end up being. While not as hot as June, I can still see us experiencing 7 to 10 more ninety degree days this summer. The pace has slowed, but I believe we’ll keep adding on to the current number in August and even into September. We do have a second year La Nina developing (cooler than normal water off South American coast). Typically, our summers here in New England tend to become hotter the deeper we head into August and even September in second year La Nina’s. A lot depends on how rainy the pattern is. If this pattern persists into August, the entire summer forecast will be in jeopardy!

I was chatting with my weather friends William & Brett from Denver the other night on Twitter, and I mentioned to him that I believe there may be a higher than normal risk of a hurricane striking New England later this summer or early fall. Sometimes, the atmosphere will send a warning shot as a precursor as to what may be coming later. Tropical storm Elsa was the first tropical storm to make landfall in New England in I believe 15 years. It’s possible, the atmosphere is priming our region for a larger tropical cyclone, or hurricane to strike later this summer. The last hurricane to make landfall here in New England was Hurricane Bob back in August of 1991. Nothing is set in stone, but believe me when I tell you, New England is way overdue for a hurricane strike.

How about that beach and boating forecast? Obviously no beach day today, and tomorrow will not be anything to write home about either. However, I do have some hope for the period Wednesday through Saturday this week. While not completely dry, it will become warm to perhaps even hot for a day or two. At this point, I am only seeing some typical late afternoon and evening thunderstorms, where not everyone will be hit. Unfortunately, a cold front looks to stall later Saturday, leading to perhaps yet another wash out for Sunday. If you plan on doing some boating, I do not see winds being a huge factor this week, just keep an eye to the sky for building dark cumulus clouds each afternoon, with thunderstorms rolling through.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. Not great, but a bit of an improvement to where we’ve been! We all know Monday was a washout! Moving on to Tuesday, expect similar weather as we’ve been experiencing. Mainly cloudy skies with cool east winds. With winds coming in off of the ocean, there is the chance of some patch drizzle and fog along east facing coastal communities. It will be cooler than normal for this time of the year, with highs only near 70, when we should be in the lower 80’s. Expect similar weather to continue for Tuesday night, with areas of dense fog along the coast and the Cape.

I’m expecting improving weather conditions for the period Wednesday through Saturday. While not perfect, it will be warming up to close to or even a bit above normal during this period. Wednesday may still feature some murky conditions, with low clouds and fog lingering. As we move deeper into the day, these conditions may burn off, allowing for some sunshine and warmer temperatures during the afternoon and evening. There still is a risk for a late afternoon thunderstorm.

Watch for even warmer weather to even a touch on the hot side for the period Thursday through Saturday. You will also notice a marked increase in the humidity, with dew points rising up into the low to mid 70’s. Yuck! Couple this with temperatures close to 90, and it will feel every bit like July out there! With so much moisture in the air, and weak disturbances, it won’t take much to trigger some late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With weak steering currents, any thunderstorm in localized communities can feature slow moving gully washers.

Later on Saturday, a stronger cold front will be approaching the area. Much like we’ve been seeing the whole month, this front looks like it wants to stall just off our coast on Sunday. If this indeed happens, we can expect numerous showers and even steady rain on Sunday, leading to a end of the weekend washout. I’m not 100% sure about this scenario being 6 days out, but that’s what I’m seeing this evening. The good news is once this weather system clears the coast on Monday, it could be setting us up for a new cooler and drier weather pattern, with less humidity for next week. That would be a refreshing change!

Well, that’s all I have for this evening, my friends! As I mentioned two weeks ago, I will be on a every other week posting schedule for the balance of the summer. As it was, it was very difficult for me to pull off the blog tonight. I’m under time constraints, so it’s possible I may even miss more than one week at a time, until my situation improves. Unless a major weather situation threatens, this will be the schedule moving forward. So in two weeks time, I will be looking at our patterns moving into August, and hoping we have shaken this awful rainy pattern of July. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast! In the meantime, when situations became out of hand, I remember my dad saying, “enough is enough!” I’m sure that’s what everyone is collectively saying about all this rain!

Be safe and enjoy each day, everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

 

 

Two More Scorchers! 6/28/21

Hello! I apologize for the late post! So busy these days! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After a somewhat unsettled Saturday, the weather turned sunny & much warmer on Sunday. Though temperatures didn’t quite hit 90 in Boston, you could feel the heat building. It was a great beach day, for sure!

Today (Monday), marked the first day of a three day heatwave. Temperatures soared into the mid to upper 90’s across the region, with Boston coming in at a searing 97 degrees. As we often say, it’s not the heat, but the humidity. Factor in the dew point temperature, and this gave an intolerable heat index of well over 100 degrees!

With winds shifting more westerly tomorrow, temperatures may actually be a touch hotter. It would not shock me if some towns in eastern Massachusetts registered 100 degrees! This is due to air traveling downslope from the Berkshires towards the coastal plain. When this happens, air compresses, expands and warms.

With similar conditions expected for Wednesday, this should ensure this June of 2021, will be recorded as the hottest June ever observed in the city of Boston! So if you’ve been thinking it feels mighty hot around here for June, you’re correct!

So far, we’ve been averaging about 6 degrees above average on a daily basis. When the numbers are calculated early Thursday, it may show that we averaged close to 7 degrees above average in Boston this June.

With two more 90 degree days coming, the city also observed a staggering 9 days of 90 + degree heat this June. The average is just three. Add the two from May, and the city will have seen 11 ninety degree days already this season.

As I mentioned last week, it’s already been a hot summer. And despite a brief cooldown coming for the holiday weekend, it appears the heat is going to return not long after this upcoming weekend, and be with us periodically throughout the rest of the summer.

For once, I’m happy I updated my forecast at the summer solstice last week, increasing my 90 degree days this summer. The original forecast was for between 14 and 18 days. After reviewing late computer information, I increased that number to 19 and 23 days. Even if we receive just average number of 90 degree days for the rest of the summer, this would leave us with 21 by summers end.

My concern is we could surpass that number and head in to near record territory. As a reminder, the all time record of ninety degree days in Boston was 30, set back in 1983. It’s not out of the question if hot weather patterns persist in to July, August and sometimes even into September some years.

As has been the pattern this summer so far, the weather pattern abruptly changes, sending us scrambling for our sweat tops and jackets. Intense heat has been punctuated by several days of cooler, more comfortable weather.

Later this week will be no exception to this roller coaster pattern. A high amplitude pattern for this time of the year is bringing extreme heat to the Pacific Northwest, with all time record high temperatures recorded in both Portland, Oregon, and Seattle, Washington.

These were not just a degree or two. Portland soared to a unimaginable 115 degrees today, shattering the old all time record high by 8 degrees. Further north up the coast, Seattle also shattered their all time record high temperature by reaching 108 degrees, breaking the old record by 5 degrees.

With heat like this showing up in northern latitudes, it would not surprise me if something like this occurs in Boston later this summer. Our all time hottest temperature in Boston is 104 degrees set back on July 4th, 1911.

Highly amplitude patterns mean big domes of high pressure, bending the jet stream way to the north, allowing for extreme heat and dry weather to persist. Unfortunately, the downstream weather means there has to be a trough of low pressure (cool & rainy). So far, this through of low pressure has been perstinging across areas of the deep south and Texas. It’s been unususually rainy and cool in this part of the country.

Later this week, the jet stream is going to change again, and not for the better for us! A trough is going to try and move into the west coast, cooling them down. Meanwhile, a ridge is going to build in the center of the country. This is going to buckle the jet stream, sending a deep trough of low pressure towards the Ohio Valley, eventually migrating towards New England, you guessed it, over the 4th of July holiday weekend. A frontal boundary is going to stall along the coast, sending impulses of heavy rain across the region, especially Friday and Saturday. NO!!!! Just NO!!!!

I’m hoping it’s not going to be a washout like Memorial Day weekend, but the potential is there for at least 2 out of the three days to feature heavy rain. It’s only Monday, so I would not panic just yet. There’s still time for shifts and timing of the rain. I remember Memorial Day weekend kept looking worse as we headed towards the holiday, and unfortunately that all came to fruition. Let’s see what later computer model information will show as we head deeper into the week.

Needless to say, I can pretty much guarantee it’s not going to be sunny and warm all three days this weekend. In fact, Friday and Saturday look to be a washout. The hope is the system will push far enough off the coast so that we salvage Saturday night and the 4th of July day itself. More unsettled weather could move back into the region on Monday.

Now for your beach and boating forecast. It’s going to be a scorcher for Tuesday and Wednesday this week. These are going to be your best beach days for this week. It’s possible we may salvage Sunday, but that’s very iffy at this point and time. To escape the heat, boating would be a good option both tomorrow and Wednesday. There may be some scattered afternoon thunderstorms building in the heat and humidity each day. Thursday through Saturday will bring more unsettled weather, with periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. After a blistering hot day, overnight temperatures will likely only falll to about 78 in Boston, which will break the record low high temperature of 74 degrees.

Much of the region will be under a heat advisory on Tuesday. Expect air temperatures to reach 95 to 100 degrees across the region, with stifling levels of humidity. This will give much of the area heat indices of well over 100 degrees.

There may be a few scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, but if your community receives one, consider yourself very lucky.

Very warm and muggy weather will continue Tuesday night. Expect low temperatures similar to this evening.

Wednesday will feature another very hot day, perhaps not quite as hot as tomorrow, but it will be just as muggy, with nhighs in the mid to upper 90’s. There is a better chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, as a cool front approaches.

Though we may not hit 90 on Thursday, it will still be very muggy and uncomfortable. High temperatures will likely remain in the 80’s.

As a cold front passes through the region, expect winds to shift onshore later Thursday. This will introduce cooler weather into the region, along with the chance of rain.

As an area of low pressure slides south of New England on Friday, expect periods of heavy rain, which may continue into Friday night and into Saturday. It may not be raining all the time, but the potential exists for between 2 and 3″ of rain across the Boston area.

As I mentioned above, the rain will slowly diminish and move off the coast later Saturday. If we’re lucky, skies may try and brighten, allowing for some sunshine and a decent day for the 4th itself. I am feeling optimistic that it’s going to be a nice day! More light showers may try to develop once again on Monday, but no washout is anticipated at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now! I wish I had a better forecast for the weekend, but things can still change!

Just a quick announcement. I will be taking next Monday off from the blog, and will most likely be writing every other week during the summer months, unless severe weather threatens. As always, I very much appreciate all the positive feedback I receive from family and friends on Facebook & Twitter…it inspires me to keep writing about the passion I love! New England weather!

Stay safe my friends…and Happy July 4th!

Pete

Sailing into Summer! 6/21/21

Hello! Happy summer! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was certainly a summery weekend around much of New England. Admittedly, Saturday turned out to be much nicer than I anticipated in the forecast from last week. Many cities and towns reached or exceeded 90 degrees, even at the beaches! Father’s Day was another summer beauty, with much less humidity in the air. While many communities fell just short of 90, it was still plenty warm out to take a trip to the lakes and beaches.

Not including today, Boston has reached or surpassed 90 degrees 8 times already this season! Logan fell one degree short yesterday coming in at 89. While Saturday surprised many with the 90+ degree heat, expectations fell short yesterday, and so far do not look promising on reaching 90 today, when earlier it looked like a lock.

It’s all about the wind direction. A west southwest wind is key in driving heat right to the coast. When the wind has a more southerly component, areas north and west of Boston are hottest, while it remains slightly cooler in the city, and much cooler across southeastern, Mass. and the Cape.

Sometimes the wind suddenly shifts southwest later in the day, so it’s still not out of the question we touch 90 late in the day. If we don’t, we would remain at 8 for the season so far… two in May, and six so far here in June. On average, the city receives 14 ninety degree days in a typical summer.

But this is not going to be a typical summer around here. My summer forecast called for a warmer than average summer on the way. My initial call was for between 14 and 18 days of 90 degree temperatures. For those who are curious, I base how hot the summer season is by how many 90 degree days the region receives.

True, it’s all relative. Most people have their own threshold on what makes them feel hot. We can have a summer filled with over 20 ninety degree days, but if there was very little humidity to go along with that heat, well, it may not be so memorable for many.

However, every now and again, Mother Nature throws the lethal combination of hot temperatures and torrid levels of humidity in synchrony. When this occurs, as it did in the summer of 2018, it can make for intolerable conditions for outdoor work, sleep, or spending any time indoors without air conditioning. By the way, Boston saw 23 ninety degree days along with record high dew points that lasted well into September that year. Yuck!

On paper, last summer appeared to be exactly average. While Boston received 14 ninety degree days, that was not the whole story. For beach goers, there was a very weak feeble sea breezes right along the ocean edge for a good majority of July last year. This prevented Logan from receiving more than 20 ninety degree days last summer. In fact, looking back at the daily temperature log, Logan reported at least a half dozen days of 89 degrees, very much like yesterday.

This is why I say last summer was a very deceivingly hot summer. Many communities 5 miles inland received between 20 and 30 ninety degree days!

The point I’m trying to make is each summer is different around here. Just because we already have received 8 ninety degree days, does not automatically mean over 20 is a lock. Last year, we had reached 90 degrees 14 times by mid August. Surely we would of surpassed that number before the end of summer on September 20th, right? Nope! That was it, summer abruptly concluded early last year, with no more 90 degree days for the remainder of the season!

On average, Boston sees six 90 degree days in July, another 4 in August, and sometimes one in September. If we are just average over the next three months, that would make for 11 more 90 degree days, which would give us 19 for the season.

With all that being said, I believe this year is different. Ocean temperatures are warmer than last summer. Therefore, I’m not expecting as many seabreezes this July. In addition, we will be entering into a second year La Niña. This alone is a warm signal for hotter weather in the northeast the deeper we go into the summer. Add to this a general warmer climate in recent years, and I think it’s a very clear signal to me to bump up my 90 degree days this summer in Boston.

Based upon this latest information, I’m adjusting my 90 degree days from 14 to 18 up to between 19 and 23 days in Boston this summer. The all time record is 30 back in 1982. I’m stopping short of that, but I can tell you that it’s not out of the question we challenge that record, if everything falls into place.

What could go wrong? So many things! While I do see these signals for a hot summer, Mother Nature always has the final say! It’s possible we evolve into a humid, very warm summer with lots of showers and thunderstorms. This would make for a muggy summer, but the damp soil levels could keep temperatures from reaching 90 very often.

It’s also possible the main heat dome remains out west, with a ridge of high pressure (hot & dry), pushing the jet stream far to the north out there, while here in the east a shallow trough (cool & unsettled) brings frequent cool fronts from Canada into New England, allowing for a a less humid summer with cooler temperatures for the balance of July & August.

Yet another possibilty is to receive heavy moisture from tropical systems riding up along the eastern seaboard. This alone would keep prevent extended heat waves from occurring. A tropical storm is possible later this summer or fall, but I do not believe it will derail the hot summer idea.

Those are just some wildcards that could happen. At this point, I am not expecting any of these to be a major fact this summer. I was advised not to change the original forecast family & friends, but based upon the information I’m currently looking at, a change is warranted. We shall add it all up & see how I do by summer’s end!

Now for your weekly beach & boating forecast. Best beach days this week are going to be today, Wednesday and Thursday, and again next weekend! Tomorrow is one of those iffy days. A cold front will be approaching, at the same time it will turning very muggy. This alone will instigate fog along the south coast and Cape. In addition, there could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. But, as we saw on Saturday, there’s always a chance the sun burns it off, and the day could be salvageable.

After the cool front sweeps off the coast, expect cooler & drier air to work its way back into New England for Wednesday and Thursday. Warmer air moving back into the region could mean some clouds on Friday. The upcoming weekend looks mainly dry and warmer, though a pop up thunderstorm can’t be ruled out.

Best boating days look to be Wednesday and Thursday this week, then again this upcoming weekend. A tropical storm is passing southeast of New England later today and tomorrow, which will kick up the seas. Southwesterly winds may make things a bit choppy this weekend, especially south side of the Cape, though it’s not looking fierce at this time.

Now for your local outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect a warm & fairly muggy afternoon, with building clouds. Temperatures look to top off in the mid to upper 80’s. Though it’s remote, there is a chance of an evening shower, especially towns north and west of Boston this evening. Otherwise, expect mainly cloudy weather overnight, along with muggy feel to the air.

Watch for dense fog in coastal areas and Cape Cod early Tuesday morning. this may or may not burn off during the afternoon to reveal some sunshine. Nevertheless, it will be a warm day, with highs mainly in the 80’s.

There is a chance of some evening showers tomorrow night, mainly south of Boston, and especially the Cape. Expect clearing skies later at night, with dropping dew point temperatures.

Expect mainly sunny and more comfortable weather for both Thursday and Friday this week. Temperatures will be refreshing on Wednesday, with highs in the 70’s, then warm up into the low 80’s on Thursday and Friday. Ther will be more clouds around on Friday, so I’m not expecting a completely sunny day.

Right now, it appears much of New England will be on the eastern side of a rather deep trough of low pressure to our west this weekend. If things work out, most of the weekend could end up being on the warm and muggy side with a southerly flow, and a tropical look to the sky. I can’t rule out a spot shower or thunderstorm, but a washout is not anticipated at this moment.

Well, that’s about it for now, friends! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a very close look into our all important 4th of July weekend forecast! I will also monitor to see if there are any heat waves in our immediate future, along with a new beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, if you are a fan of hot weather, this could be the summer for you!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Heat is Gone…For Now! 6/14/21

Hello! Happy Flag Day! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! The weather cooperated for the most part. Saturday began with some light showers and cloudy weather. Later in the day, the sun broke through allowing for a pleasant afternoon. Sunday also started off with some clouds, but the weather improved more rapidly, allowing for quite a beautiful afternoon. Temperatures were seasonable on Saturday, but warmed up to beach weather on Sunday. All in all, it was a fairly seasonable weekend.

Right on cue, the cold front finally moved through last Wednesday evening, putting an end to the extremely early 5 day heat wave in Boston. When all was said and done, it was the longest stretch of early season heat in Boston since 1925…nearly 100 years ago! If you thought it was early to receive that kind of heat, you were correct!

Funny how some years we can’t buy any 90 degree days in June, but this year we had no problem reaching them 5 times so early in this mostly spring month. Add another two from back in May, and Boston is already half way to their seasonal average total of 14…and it’s not even officially summer yet!

More than the heat, it was the atrocious humidity levels that made it feel so uncomfortable last Tuesday and Wednesday. Last Monday I reported how I thought it didn’t feel too bad, as early season heat waves generally do not come with the high dew point temperatures like we many times see later in July and especially August. Once again, Mother Nature proved me wrong by surging intolerable dew point temperatures at the tail end of the heat wave last week. Yuck!

The much anticipated cold front could not get here soon enough! As expected, winds shifted into the northeast Wednesday night, as much cooler and drier air surged in from the Canadian Maritimes. Most importantly, dew point temperatures plummeted, making for a much more comfortable day last Thursday.

While it just turned cooler & drier here in Boston, it became so cool that there actually was snow reported in Newfoundland, Canada last Thursday! This just goes to show you how cool the airmass was that surpressed the intense heat wave to our south.

In some cases, the heat returns a day or two after a cool front moves through. This is typically the case in July and August, when the Bermuda High is at its peak intensity. Cool air masses charge into New England from southern Canada, giving us New Englanders temporary breaks from intense summer heat.

Not this time however. This pattern change meant business, as the whole upper air pattern has been temporarily rearranged. For now, the pattern retrograted, meaning the big dome of heat has retrograted west, to the western part of the country. Meanwhile, cool high pressure has built in from Newfoundland down the coast alll the way into New England. This has resulted in a trough (cool & wet) of low pressure to settle over New England for at least the next two weeks. This means more chances of rainfall, and certainly no 90 degree days through at least June 28th.

As longtime Boston meteorologist Harvey Leonard explained, “this hot start to June is not sustainable.” We have been running nearly 11 degrees above average. With the cooler weather anticipated for the next couple weeks, we will lower that number somewhat, but it appears this June will be a lock for well above average temperatures in Boston.

Thereafter, it appears as if the Bermuda High will once again begin to flex her muscles, with building heat & humidity for what looks to be arriving the first week of July heading into the 4th of July holiday weekend. While not set in stone, long range computer models are quite bullish on this secenario panning out.

I was chatting with my sister Pam about the possibility of increasing my 90 degree days predicted for this summer. If you recall, my summer forecast posted back on May 24th is calling for between 14 and 18 ninety degree days this summer in Boston.

Pam thinks I should go with my initial forecast, as my updates typically do not pan out! She has a point! I do notice when I make changes to my original forecast, it usually does not work out the way I anticipated it was going to. One theory I have, is that it’s possible I do most of my thorough research on the initial seasonal forecast. When I do the update, I look too much into recent trends, and sway away from my initial thinking.

With that being said, I am very confident a hot summer is on the way. As I mentioned last week, it’s already been hot, and it’s not even officially summer yet! We shall see how the summer pattern evolves. If the heat dome indeed builds back into New England to start July, we could be looking at record amount of 90 degree days July through September. I tend to be conservative with my numbers, but if I see growing evidence of hotter than normal weather patterns settling in to start July, I may indeed increase the number to reflect my thinking.

Some believe early heat waves do not translate into a hot summer. Looking back at the statistics, there may be some truth to that! There have been instances of hot weather in June, only to turn cooler for the rest of the summer! I don’t believe this is the case this year. We are in a very warm cycle. The Bermuda High pressure has been stronger than normal past several summers. As I have mentioned from the spring, I see no evidence of a cool summer this year.

The key is July. If the hot weather returns with a vengeance in July, watch out! We will most likely sizzle here in Boston with over 20 ninety degree days this summer. The record is 30 set back in 1982. My final update to my summer forecast will be posted one week from today.

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. Expect inclement weather for today and tomorrow with some much needed rain. However, expect clearing skies and warmer temperatures for the period Wednesday through Friday. There will be another chance of showers on Saturday only to clear out for a beautiful Father’s Day on Sunday. For this week, good boating weather will match up nicely with good beach days. Expect Wednesday through Friday to be good days, then take the boat out for another great day on Father’s Day itself! Enjoy!

Now time for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10. A nice mix of sunny warm days, along with a few chances of much needed rainfall. Fairly typical June weather.

Expect unsettled weather conditions for today and for part of tomorrow as well, for that matter. It will not be raining all the time, but there will be some downpours and perhaps a few thunderstorms from time to time. Temperatures should be close to average for this time of year…at least it’s not a cold rain, and we do need the water!

Look for improving weather conditions, with a good amount of sunshine for the period Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures may start off in the mid 70’s on Wednesday , but warm up into the lower 80’s by Friday.

If you were looking for a perfect weekend with sunny skies and warm temperatures, this will not be the weekend for you! However, as I mentioned above, after a few showers and thunderstorms move through the region on Saturday, Father’s Day is looking to turn out to be a real gem of a day! Expect mostly sunny skies, and warm temperatures, possibly up into the mid 80’s. Beach day, anyone? Oh, by the way, Sunday is also the official first day of summer! Enjoy!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating my summer forecast, which may have a revision, or not! I will also have my new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, the heat may be singing a different tune the rest of June, but may back to fry us in July!

Happy father’s Day to all the great Dads out there…Incliding my Dad up in Heaven!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Heat Wave…Then Cooler! 6/7/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, I would have to say the weather more like what we would expect in August, not early June. Nevertheless, summer has indeed arrived, and the weather this past weekend was nothing short of spectacular, if you enjoy summer!

We are now in day three of a four day heat wave. Saturday turned surprisingly hot, with high temperatures in Boston reaching 92 degrees. Sunday was even hotter, with low to mid 90’s all the way to the beaches!

The key this weekend was offshore westerly breezes. Winds coming from this direction is a downslope wind, blowing off of the Berkshires, and the hills of Worcester County. As the air travels downslope, it expands and warms when it reaches the coastal plain. Therefore, coastal areas experienced the hottest temperatures yesterday, with Boston coming in at 94 degrees!

During summer, many folks here in New England say, “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” The one saving grace for us yesterday was that the dew point temperatures were only in the 50’s! Dew point temperature measures the amount of water droplets or moisture in the air. The higher the dew point, the heavier the air feels, which makes us feel sluggish with low energy levels.

I enjoy looking at the dew point temperature chart meteorologists show on television. This is a chart that clearly depicts our comfort level, in relation to the dew point temperature. Dew point temperatures between 50 and 60 degrees is relatively dry, and “comfy.” When dew points rise to between 60 and 70 degrees, it becomes uncomfortable, and “muggy.” If the dew point temperature continues to rise to 70 degrees and beyond, we enter the “oppressive” zone. Living in air like this is not good for anyone. It makes us feel very uncomfortable, irritable with low energy. Yuck!

Fortunately for us, this heat wave has featured low dew point temperatures, so far! Later today, and especially tomorrow, dew point temperatures may increase towards 70 degrees, which will make it feel very uncomfortable for being outdoors.

Here in early June, dew point levels are not as extreme as later in the summer. As we head into later July and August, higher levels of humidity continue to increase from the south. A heat wave like this later on in the summer would feature much higher levels of humidity, making it feel much worse!

Nonetheless, we are experiencing our first official heat wave! Hard to believe we were experiencing record low high temperatures just last week on Memorial Day weekend! This is how we achieve our averages. Longtime Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal always says, “it’s the extremes that makes the averages.”

It’s true! Our weather is never constantly the same. It could be similar for a few days in a row, maybe even for a week or two in some cases, but eventually it changes, swinging back the other way. Droughts always lead to floods, and hot temperatures always turn cold. It’s the cycle of weather.

Speaking of heat waves, today will mark the third consecutive day of 90 + degrees in Boston. For an official heat wave, the temperature must reach or surpass 90 degrees for 3 straight days. Tomorrow will be the 4th day, and will also be our 6th 90 degree day of the season…and the official start of summer is still two weeks away!

You may be thinking, it feels awfully hot so early in the season, is this normal? Truth is, Boston has not had a hot stretch in June for several years now. Boston can experience heat waves this time of the year, though it does not happen often. This is the 7th earliest heat wave on record in Boston. The earliest was May 2-4 back in 2001.

Am I surprised? Not really! I was fully expecting a warm to hot June this year. As I mentioned above, it has not been this hot during June for a long time. In fact, real hot weather has waited until July 4th or later to settle into the Boston area past several summers.

Does this mean a hot summer is on the way? Yes…not only do believe a hot summer is on the way, but I believe it’s already here! Tomorrow will be out 6th 90 degree day, already! Last year it took until the middle of July to reach this number. Boston averages 14 days of 90 degree weather each summer.

A couple weeks ago I forecasted between 14 and 18 ninety degree days this summer in my summer forecast. Looking over the latest information, I feel very confident we are going to reach this range. I will have my summer forecast update when the solstice arrives in a couple weeks. There are some strong indications I may be bumping up those 90 degree days.

Some people in the field believe early heat before the solstice typicall does not yield hot summers. And in fact, a major reversal in the pattern later this week is going flip our weather back to cooler pattern, while the west heats up. This is a retrograding pattern, where our heat dome retrogrades out west, while cooler weather builds in from northeast Canada and the Maritimes into New England. This will lead to a refreshingly cooler, drier airmass which will extend into this weekend!

Is this a permanent pattern change for the rest of the summer? I do not believe so. I merely believe this is a temporary break in our hot pattern. I believe this a warning shot for similar pattern to repeat itself during the course of the summer. The hot weather obviously can not continue for 90 straight days. After all, this is Boston, not Phoenix!

Now, there have been years when such a flip this time of the year leads to a permanent pattern change for the rest of the season. I don’t believe this is the case this year. In a warming climate, I believe the warm to hot weather will once again overwhelm the region repetitively over the course of the summer…especially later in the summer extending into September this year.

We are very fortunate to be living in New England. Other parts of the country do not receive many breaks if at all for the entire summer! So far, this is still very early in the season, areas across the north have received more hot weather than southern areas.

A friend on Twitter living in west Texas has been enjoying cooler than average temperatures, with abundant rainfall so far this spring. This is very unusual weather for that part of the country, as they are normally already in the 90’s on a daily basis with drought this time of the year. We’ll see if this continues, or if the heat arrives later in the summer down there.

After a disastrous Memorial weekend, the first weekend of summer (unofficial) certainly was quite the change! With temperatures soaring into the 90’s, many folks flocked to the beach, mountains and lakes across New England! Your best beach days this week are going to be today, tomorrow, and maybe part of Wednesday? Otherwise, next weekend looks like fairly good beach weather, though Saturday may still be a bit too cool for some?

Expect hot weather today and tomorrow, with warm & muggy weather on Wednesday. This will be followed by cooler and drier weather for the period of Thursday through Sunday.

Boaters be aware of the chance of thunderstorms each day through Wednesday, with chances increasing each day as the cold front approaches and passes the region on Wednesday. Also beware of sudden wind shifts to the northeast later Wednesday with increasing rough seas. Thereafter, cooler northerly winds will mean choppy seas north side of Cape Cod later in the week into the weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week another 8 out of 10.

Watch for another scorcher for the rest of this afternoon! The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for much of our area. Look for partly sunny and hot weather for the rest of today. High temperatures will soar into the mid 90’s across much of the area. There is some instability in the region, which may lead to a few scattered pop up afternoon summer thunderstorms in the region.

Air conditioners will be needed overnight, as higher dew point temperatures will lead to uncomfortable levels of humidity. Low temperatures will fall into the 60’s in most locations.

An approaching cold front will lead to more cloudiness tomorrow. This will keep temperatures slightly cooler than today, but dew point temperature will be higher, which means it will most likely feel just as hot, if not a touch hotter tomorrow. High temperatures will mostly be in the low 90’s. With the front in the area, there’s a better chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but no washout is anticipated at this time.

Any storms will diminish tomorrow evening, leaving us with uncomfortable sleeping conditions overnight. Lows will mainly be in the 60’s, with high levels of humidity.

Changes will begin on Wednesday. A strong black door cold front will be sweeping northeast to southwest across the region, reaching Boston during the late afternoon and evening, with shifting winds, and the chance of a few afternoon thunderstorms. These storms typically form over Cape Ann area to Cape Cod, some of which can turn severe. With more clouds, it does not look like we’re going to reach a 5th day of 90. Rather, highs should remain in the 80’s, though it will still feel very muggy.

Watch for much cooler and drier weather moving into New England from the Canadian Maritimes later this week into the upcoming weekend. North to northeast winds will help keep temperatures in the 70’s on Thursday, only 60’s and lower 70’s on Friday, back to low 70’s to mid 70’s on Saturday, and warming up to near 80 on Sunday. It will be mainly dry weather throughout the period, with comfortable overnights.

Well, that’s all I have for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the lookout for when the hot weather may return. I will also have a new beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, in typical New England fashion, if you don’t like the hot weather, just wait a bit, a cooler change is ahead!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

A very Happy Birthday to my sister Pam! (Friday June 11th).

Here Comes Summer! 5/31/21

Hello! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! The weather left lots to be desired in most of New England! I do not believe there are enough adjectives to describe how miserable the weather pattern was this weekend. How ironic that we had such a glorious spring for March, April and most of May, only to have a three day nor’easter punch us right in the gut here on Memorial Day weekend.

It was if Mother Nature was teasing us with a near three day heat wave last weekend, making us believe that summer was truly here! With covid restrictions finally lifted, it seemed to be a perfect weekend to hold social events with family & friends who many have not seen in a long time. Many had plans to go to the beach this weekend, too.

Unfortunately, the weather had other plans for all of us. Last Monday, I had my concerns for the long holiday weekend. I was doing my best to spin an optimistic outlook on the forecast projections. Unfortunately, the unsettled outlook had merit, and went even beyond what I had envisioned.

Impeccable timing from Mother Nature had winds turning onshore and rain surging into the Boston area just after 5:00 pm Friday. Temperatures dropped into the 40’s with gusty northeast winds and a wind driven rain which continued for much of Saturday. Along with the 2 to 4″ of rainfall, many cities and towns shattered records for record high low temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday. There was even accumulating snow in elevations above 3000 ft in Vermont and New Hampshire!

After a brief lull, rain and wind redeveloped on Sunday and continued through much of the night. So far today. the holiday itself, there has been a few splashes of sun, and temperatures are a smidge milder, but there could be a few more showers this afternoon, before the whole system lifts on out just in time for the end of the holiday.

Memorial Day is typically the unofficial start of summer season here in New England. Most people think it’s a time for parties and having a good time. I’m not condoning having a good time, especially when many have been cooped up in their homes for over a year, but I ask people to remember the symbolism this holliday brings.

When we’re enjoying our evening cook out with family & friends, keep the men & women in your thoughts who served and are serving our country to help bring the freedom which we all enjoy today. Freedom does not come without a price.

While we’re at it, why not include first responders, doctors & nurses along with them, who risk their lives everyday to keep us safe during these troubling times! We can also remember anyone who we have lost…from friends, relatives and especially parents on this day.

Back to our normally scheduled program! Many were shocked at how quickly the weather went from mid summer conditions last weekend, to November like weather this weekend. For me, it was not too much of a surprise. I could see cold air building in Canada, and a low pressure developing south of New England.

This is not a good recipe for nice weather any time of the year. We’ve been running welll above average temperatures for many weeks now, so a correction to cooler weather was imminent. It’s also been incredibly dry. After a wet first week of May, much of our region did not record any rainfall for nearly three straight weeks. This is almost unheard of around here.

Many folks were very pleased with the above average warmth the last couple weeks. No doubt, it’s so nice after a fairly long winter with chilly temperatures. However, I cautioned many times that long stretches of summery weather in April & May is very untypical, and too early for New England in most years.

There have been some very rare years when summer weather runs the table from March through October, without any setbacks. The incredible warm year of 2012 comes to mind. In most years, early surges of warm weather retreat back south until finally settling in later in June. Cold ocean temperatures typically hold the wam air at bay until after the summer solstice.

Last week I mentioned of a warmer than normal summer on the way in my summer forecast. Already I’m seeing signs from computer models that this summer could be a lot hotter than what I even anticipated.

According to latest computer guidance, a large ridge (warm & dry) of high pressure is going to begin to build across New England this week. There are some signs this ridge, or I like to explain it as a “warm bubble” of air, is going to persist through much of June this year. There are other indications that show this feature locking in place for the majority of the summer.

As it stands now, I’m expecting a hotter than normal June around here this year. Typically Boston sees around 3 days of 90 degree heat during June. This year, I’m calling for between 5 and 7 days in Boston. It’s going to get hot, so get your a.c.’s ready!

Along with the hot weather, there is still good indications of frontal activity penetrating New England at times. If this indeed is the case, we can expect at or above average rainfall in June this year in the Boston area. Tycially, we would see about 3″ of rain during June. I mentioned that we may see more rain this summer than recent years in my summer forecast, so this is a good sign.

This is coming off a warmer & wetter May here in Boston. There were large swings of dry weather, but the rains at the start of May, and the deluge this past weekend brought levels to above normal this month. May was also our third above average month in a row, and 12 out of the last 13 months above average. Only February was below, and that was only by a tenth of a degree.

Last week I mentioned that I will be updating my summer forecast around the time of the solstice. At this moment, my forecast is calling for between 14 and 18 ninety degree days for Boston this summer. We have already had two this May. If June ends up with as many 90 degree days as what I’m thinking, I may need to bump up the 90 degree days. This is looking like a hot summer folks…possibly even record territory!

Now for your weekly summer beach & boating forecast. Despite the stormy and cold weather of this past weekend, and unsettled weather of today, this week is looking to turn quite summery as the week progresses.

Expect best beach days to be tomorrow and Wendnesday, then again next Saturday and Sunday. There may be some showers on Thursday and Friday, but a washout is not anticipated at this point. Boaters expect a moderate chop out there today, then again possibly on Thursday as a cold front approaches. Building heat will yield to choppy seas on south side of Cape Cod next weekend, as southwest winds increase.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. Big improvement this week, I’m rating this week an 8 out of 10.

Watch for mainly cloudy weather for the rest of your Monday. There could be some patchy drizzle in a few coastal locations. As the storm begins to pull away, there is the possibility of some brightening skies towards evening. If this happens, temperatures may warm a few degrees before sunset. In general, I’m expecting mainly low to mid 60’s across the region.

Look for clearing skies tonight. With light winds, there could be some patchy fog developing in coastal locations and Cape Cod. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40’s and 50’s.

Expect partly sunny and warmer weather as we head back to work on Tuesday. Tomorrow is also June 1st, and the first day of meteorological summer! It will feel summery, with highs reaching between 75 and 80 degrees!

Tuesday night will feature fair and cool conditions, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. patchy ground fog is possible.

Watch for slightly warmer weather for the period Wednesday through Friday. There will be some instability, along with a front crossing the region on Thursday. Therefore, there is the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, mostly focused during the afternoon on Wednesday, and anytime during the day on Thursday. No washout is anticipated, but expect to get wet at one point or another. As I mentioned it will be warmer, with highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.

A building Bermuda High pressure south of New England will bring strengthening southwest winds, along with hotter temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday. At this point, I would say it looks good for the beach! Temperatures should warm up into the upper 80’s close to 90 on Saturday, and possibly lower 90’s on Sunday. This heat may continue into the following week as well.

Well, that’s about it for today, my friends. In next week’s blog, I will be closely monitoring the possibility of our first heat wave. I will also be talking more about our upcoming summer patterns, and have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, we can finally pack away the winter attire for another season…as we welcome the return of summer!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

next entries »
Log in