Stormy Signal! 2/3/25

Hello! I hope everyone is well!  It’s been a while since my last post, December 23rd to be exact! My time continues to be limited, as each Monday is filled with increasing work demands. We have a lot to discuss, but unfortunately this is going to be an abbreviated blog. I wanted to get this important update in to make sure everyone is aware of the upcoming pattern for February.

So far, I’m extremely pleased with how the winter forecast has evolved this year. The initial call was for a colder winter, with Boston possibly observing its first colder than normal in over 10 years. What I mean by colder than normal would-be recording December, January and February with below average temperatures. So far, December and January have featured below average temperatures. February was looking warmer, but now it too appears to be leaning cold. We have had cold months in the past 10 years, some even two in a row, but it’s been over a decade to find three consecutive winter months featuring below average temperatures. We just started the month, so we’ll see where we land.

This has also been an amazing winter for outdoor winter activities. Outdoor skating rinks, ice fishing, pond hockey and snow skiing has been the best it’s been in years! Sustained cold temperatures & minimal snowfalls has led to excellent conditions for ice formation. While there haven’t been any blockbuster storms so far this winter, any storm system crossing ski country has produced lots of powdery snow. In fact, the winds have been so strong crossing Lake Ontario, plumes of snow squalls have been crossing New York state and finding their way to many ski resorts in Vermont. They call this upslope snow, and the amounts have been measured in feet in favored upslope ski resorts! Other resorts that have not seen a ton of snow have been able to make a ton of snow due to the persistent cold temperatures and no disastrous meltdowns.

I also called for between 30 and 40″ of snow this season in Boston, with most arriving here in February and March. So far, we have about 15″ of snow this season. This is running below what normally would have fallen at this point of the winter. Normally, Boston would have already received approximately 28″ at this point in the season. We are running ahead of last year, but still below where we should be this time of the year. Overall, it’s been a colder and somewhat snowier winter than last year, which was what I was expecting.

Interestingly enough, all telecommunications, analogs, seasonal computer models all pointed to one of the warmest and least snowiest winters on record back in the fall. While there were many mixed signals, I saw enough winter signals leading me to believe a more active winter was on the way.

While nothing in weather is for certain until after it happens, I am seeing signs of a stormy period for much of New England this February. To me, the snow falling this past Saturday morning was a bit of tone setter from Mother Nature of what may be coming this month. When most of the storm fell as rain around Boston, many areas in New Hampshire and Maine received 3 to 6″ of snow. As the storm pulled away, a quick wind shift to the north changed the rain to blustery snow showers. This led to a surprisingly wintery scene around here, as temperatures plummeted creating hazardous driving conditions.

The long awaited La Nina (cold ocean temperatures off South American coast) has finally arrived.  La Nina was originally meant to be the driving force this winter. However, the delay opened the door for other teleconnections to flex their muscles. A large, expansive polar vortex has been squashing the southeast ridge this winter, allowing bitterly cold air masses from Canada to plunge south & east out of Canada. During one of these arctic outbreaks, the frigid temperatures drove all the way to the Gulf coast. As this arctic air advected over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it initiated a storm to develop. Many of us were in disbelief as the storm quickly intensified into a massive deep south snowstorm. In some areas blizzard warnings were posted in Louisianna where up to one foot of wind-blown snow fell! The storm then tracked across northern Florida where the state observed its heaviest snowfall ever recorded with up to 9″ falling! Most of this storm missed New England, as the cold air kept it suppressed passing out to sea to our south and east.

Aside from that storm in the deep south, most areas have received below normal snowfall. Exceptions have been around the Great Lakes, the mountains of western New England, and the deep south including Florida! Most of the I95 corridor has seen the multi-year snow drought continue. Aside from Portland, Maine, Boston has seen more snowfalls than other major cities along the I95 corridor. There are growing signals of a major disruptive winter pattern change beginning this week, but I am really keeping a close eye on or around Valentine’s Day. This is not unusual in any way. The period from February 4th to the 14th is known as “Primetime” here in Boston. This is when the atmosphere is most conducive to produce a major winter storm, nor’easter or even a blizzard in Boston. Our most severe winter storm ever recorded was observed on February 6th and 7th back in 1978, also known as “The Great Blizzard of 1978″!

The pattern over the next few weeks will feature a classic battle of the air masses! Longtime Boston meteorologist Harvey Leonard (retired) used to always say to get a good storm, you need a clash of air masses. The more intense the clash, the bigger the storm! Mother Nature has been dormant the past couple of years with benign weather patterns. I believe this is going to change in a big way this month!

In an odd twist of fate, the awakening of La Nina is going to be the catalyst to jump start this volatile pattern. We’ve had the cold air around all winter. There just wasn’t any warm air around to make a storm. With La Nina now here, the southern part of the country is going to turn unseasonably warm. At the same time, the polar vortex is expanding, stretching and is ready to send arctic air slowly into the Northeast like taffy. This is going to set up an intense baroclinic zone (difference in temperature) across the middle of the country and just south of New England. This pattern is very reminiscent of the winter of 1995-96.

What I’m expecting is fast moving winter storms beginning this Thursday with storms following every three or four days thereafter. Depending on where this baroclinic zone sets up, these storms can feature all snow, snow to sleet, and the worse scenario freezing rain with a possible ice storm. If storms track close enough, it may bring enough warm air in off of the ocean to turn coastal areas to plain rain. But frigid air will be lurking close by, so flash freezes will be possible if any precipitation changes to rain. As we move deeper into February, the jet stream may dig deeper into the eastern part of the country and develop a more classic nor’easter or even a possible blizzard around mid-month. More storms may follow through the 24th of February before the pattern relaxes. It’s possible Boston receives two to two and a half feet of snow during this particular storm blitz. This will not be as intense as the epic 2014-15 snow blitz but still could bring the city to a standstill for a time at its peak.

Now for your weekly ski forecast. I will rate ski conditions this week a 10 out of 10. Ski country received 3 to 6″ last night, and another storm coming Thursday, with yet another one coming late Saturday into early Sunday. The dam is about to break! Look for the best conditions in years for pretty much the balance of February! Storm after storm will bury ski country with feet of snow! It may be a case of too much snow, as some folks may have trouble getting to the resorts.

Time for your outdoor winter activity forecast. After a fairly mild and benign weather today, expect temperatures to once again slowly fall across the region come tomorrow. A cold front will pass through New England overnight, bringing blustery winds later tonight and especially tomorrow. High temperatures will be felt early in the day tomorrow, with temperatures dropping during the day. It will feel colder tomorrow compared to today due to the gusty winds.

Tuesday night will feature much colder temperatures compared to tonight. Lows will fall into the teens and lower 20s.

Expect a cold start to Wednesday morning, As the day progresses, sunshine will become filtered through increasing clouds. It will be a cold day, with high temperatures around freezing. Clouds will continue to lower and thicken Wednesday night. Snow should overspread the region before dawn Thursday. Most areas should see a quick burst of 1 to 3” of snow. As the storm tracks close to the region, the snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain. Along the coast and south of the Mass Pike including Boston, the ice will turn to plain rain. However, cold temperatures will remain across the interior north and west of Rt 128 but especially I495 where there may be a light accretion of freezing rain. The storm will move out Thursday afternoon, followed by colder temperatures Thursday night which may lead to a flash freeze with any remaining moisture in the Boston area. Colder but drier weather will follow Friday and Saturday.

A similar storm may follow arriving Saturday night into early Sunday. This storm may take a slightly further south track and may be slightly colder. Therefore, we may receive slightly more snow and ice from this storm overnight Saturday into early Sunday. This too may also change to sleet and freezing rain into the city, and possibly plain rain if it warms up enough off of the ocean. Yet another storm may arrive a few days after Sunday. As I mentioned earlier in the post, I am closely monitoring the potential for a larger storm later next week. I will update everyone if conditions warrant regarding that potential storm.

Well, that’s about it for now! Time is short, but I will make time to keep everyone updated through the month with social media updates as needed. My next full posting may not happen until sometime early in March! In the meantime, keep the snow shovels and snow blowers on alert, as we enter Primetime snow season here in Boston!

~Be safe and thanks for reading! ~

Pete

Winter Update: Festive Flurries! 12/23/24

Hello! Happy winter, Merry Christmas & Happy Hanukkah to all! It was a festive weekend around many parts of New England! Boston received its first significant snowstorm in nearly two years, as 5 to 7″ of wet snow plastered the city on Friday. For once the bullseye was right in the city itself. Many areas just south of Boston received very little snowfall in the quirky storm. I measured nearly 6.5″ at my residence in West Roxbury, which happened to be one area that was in the bullseye for highest amounts. The nature of the wet snow clung to every branch leaving a picturesque landscape across the Parkway region! In the storms wake, bitter cold temperatures this past weekend assured a weekend full of outdoor winter activity fun! The winter storm arrived just in time to whiten the landscape for the holiday season!

Overall, the storm was poorly forecasted. Forecasts the evening before called for a dusting to maybe an inch. Amounts increased up to 2″ the next morning. Hard to believe, but amounts were already surpassing the upgraded amounts with heavy snow still yet to arrive. I was perplexed that morning with many short-range computer models coming in with up to 6″ of snow in Boston, yet the National Weather Service continued to stick with up to 2″ accumulation in the city. I believe this led to a belief that the storm wasn’t going to be anything of significance. Remember, it’s been two solid years since Boston has received any significant snow. I believe people actually became used to having no snow around here. Perhaps snow is a thing of the past, many said? As the snow kept piling up, roads became increasingly treacherous across the city, as city workers seemingly were not deployed to treat the roads. This led to a frustrating commute, as many people headed out at the same time, spinning their wheels on the greasy roads. It wasn’t quite as bad as the infamous “Grid Lock” storm of December 13th, 2007, but it certainly brought back vivid memories!

Many are asking, are we going to have a white Christmas? Indeed, we are! We still have a solid snowpack in Boston from last Friday’s storm! There are a couple of gaps in the coverage, especially south of Boston, but most of New England has enough snow on the ground for a white Christmas. This was the perfect type of snow that can stick around. Sometimes we receive very low-density powdery snow which seems to evaporate and be gone the next day. This was a high-density snow and will take a lot of energy from the atmosphere to melt. Some areas to our north that have low coverage should receive just enough tomorrow to qualify them as well!

Officially, this will be Boston’s first white Christmas since 2009. Growing up back in the 60’s and 70’s we had many white Christmases. Boston used to have about a 33% chance of a white Christmas, or approximately a 1 in 3 chance. As the years passed, this dropped to our current number of 25% or 1 in 4 chances. This percentage is highly skewed, we can go 6 or 7 years without a white Christmas, followed by 2  in a row. It’s true, in recent years the chances of a white Christmas appear to be dwindling. However, I believe it’s cyclical. It’s possible we go on a run of 3 or 4 white Christmases over the next several years! As a reminder, chances are much greater of a white Christmas across the interior of New England.

Unofficially, there was a white Christmas in 2017. According to the National Weather Service, it didn’t count as a white Christmas, because snow started falling after 7:00 AM. There has to be at least one inch of snow on the ground at 7:00 AM Christmas morning for it to officially count as a white Christmas. Yes, snow began falling after 7:00 AM, but when it started, it was a mini blizzard with several inches falling in just a few hours! In my opinion, it was a white Christmas!

A quick moving storm will deliver some festive flurries and patches of light snow tomorrow on Christmas Eve! Fortunately, this will not be a large storm, but the devil is in the details, as they say. An approaching warm front, along with a weak “Alberta Clipper” low pressure will track through New England tomorrow. Latest computer models are weakening this feature on its approach to the coast. A couple of days ago it was showing a good inch or two of snow even in Boston. This system will be tracking across central New England. Locations to the north of the track will see more widespread snowfall than areas to the south. I would say locations north of I90 (Mass Pike) have the best chance of seeing a dusting to 2″ of snow, which includes the New Hampshire seacoast region and coastal Maine. The further north and west you are, the more snow you will receive. Generally speaking, many locations in Vermont, New Hampshire and interior Maine will receive 1 to 4″ of snow. However, some higher elevations could receive between 3 and 6″ with some favorable upslope mountain locations in Vermont receiving 6 to 10″ of powder snow! What a Christmas gift! Another spot that may receive appreciable snowfall is far Downeast Maine, where up to 6″ may fall as the storm intensifies off the coast.

Down here in Boston, there will be a line of snow showers moving through between 7 AM and 11 AM. The snow may briefly come down at a good clip, dropping a fresh dusting of snow. As soon as it looks like a big storm is coming, the snow will whisk off the coast, with clearing skies for the afternoon. It may not be much but be aware if you’re out and about the roads may briefly turn slick if the snow comes down hard enough. Again, not a big storm, but it may be just enough to put everyone in the holiday mood! Enjoy it. How many times in the last 10 years can we say we had snow & cold temperatures around for Christmas?

About a month ago today, November 25th to be exact, I published my preliminary winter forecast for the 2024-25 winter. To refresh your memory, my forecast called for a changeable winter, with periods of cold and warm temperatures. Overall, I leaned towards a slightly colder winter here in Boston. As you know, this statement is all relative! Slightly colder to what? Colder than last winter? Colder than the last five or 10 years? Well, let’s try and keep it simple with a short sample size. What I was trying to communicate is that I am expecting the winter to be both colder than last winter, and slightly colder than the 30-year climatologic average. With winters being so warm of late, this does not seem too much of a stretch. However, in my opinion, it would be a very significant development in a warming climate. If Boston can pull this off, it would defy computer models and most professional scientists that predicted it to be another warmer than normal winter. So far, December is averaging slightly below average temperatures in Boston, which is huge especially considering how warm the past several Decembers has been. Sometimes, a colder than normal December is a precursor to a colder than normal winter.

I also predicted a snowier winter on the way, compared to the last two! Average snowfall in Boston is between 45 and 50″ of snow. Suburbs between 50 and 60″. My forecast called for slightly less than average with between 30 and 40″ of snow in Boston this winter, with near average snowfall for December. Unless we receive a last second snow in December, snowfall is going to be slightly less than normal in Boston, despite the snowstorm this past Friday. Boston averages approximately 9″ of snow each December. However, this is much more snow than we have received in Boston over the last 2 years combined!

Looking over the latest long-range weather guidance, I see no reason to make any changes to my winter forecast. There are some strong indications that snowfall may end up closer to our average than anything else. I could bump up the range to 40 to 50″ of snow in Boston. This could easily verify. However, I feel as if anytime I make any changes to my forecast, I always end up regretting it and wished I left it as is. If snowfall exceeds my forecast, it would be after a very warm November, which would be exceedingly rare! I feel I am on the right path with a colder and snowier winter than the last two! There’s also an increased risk of a major storm greater than 10″, if not even an east coast blizzard. New computer guidance is saying watch out for January!

Why the increased confidence? Well, it appears some of the “snowier” signals for the upcoming winter are indeed holding strong. Some of these signals showing up on computer models are predicting increased high latitude blocking, also known as the negative NAO or “Greenland block”. As high pressure increases over Greenland, it forces warmer than normal air from Canada down into the United States, particularly the east coast and New England. You may say, Pete, that’s great, it’s going to be warm here in New England! Well, no. When warmer than normal air from Greenland gets displaced and arrives down to us in lower latitudes, it’s actually colder than normal relative to averages! Thanks, Greenland!

There’s another teleconnection that has been missing in action the past couple of winters, that is active this year! It’s called the EPO, or Eastern Pacific Oscillation. When there’s a trough (cold & stormy) east of Hawaii, and a ridge (warm and dry) north of it, this is when the EPO is negative. This tele-connects with colder temperatures here in New England like clockwork! So far, the EPO has been mostly negative this winter and has been helping to thwart any sustained warmups here in New England and along the entire east coast for that matter so far this winter!

Another strong signal is that La Nina (ENSO) (colder than normal ocean temperatures in southern Pacific Ocean) has not strengthened as much as earlier thought. In fact, it’s remained weak borderline what we call neutral phase, or “La Nada”. Neither El Nino nor La Nina. You can look at it as a mixture of the two. When this occurs, the stubborn southeast ridge, while still may be present, becomes less of a factor. This allows other signals to become more dominant, such as the Greenland block and EPO. This also allows the polar vortex to weaken at times, which could play a major factor in our upcoming winter. If we were to happen to get a major disruption, or even a split of the vortex, then winter could take a decidedly more severe look, and linger deep into spring. Something to keep a close eye on.

Yet, there are other signals offsetting the cold & snowy signals. The north Pacific Ocean remains cold. This is what is called a negative PDO. The Pacific cycles from periods of warm to periods of cold. When it’s cold, cold troughs can crash the west coast and come inland bringing prolific snowfall to the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and sometimes the Colorado Rockies. When this happens, high pressure tends to build along the east coast, prohibiting Nor’easters or coastal storms from developing. Instead, these storms tend to track across Ontario into Quebec, bring mostly rain and warm temperatures to southern New England. This has been the predominant pattern for the better part of two years now. So far, there’s actually been more ridges than troughs out west, especially here in December. Let’s see if this continues heading into January. In addition, we are just coming off an extremely active solar maximum cycle. Remember all of those Northern Lights we witnessed last fall? These solar flares ejecting from the sun can sometimes alter our weather patterns, resulting in warm winters. We also have low volcanic activity at this time.

For this reason, I’m playing it conservative this winter. While the potential is there for a blockbuster winter, the ingredients may not all be lining up this year, especially for the coast. For sure the cold signals are stronger this year than recent years. However, I still see the warm signals still playing a role this winter. This means a couple of things. The weather this winter will become increasingly volatile. Expect rapidly changeable conditions, especially along the coast. This means more arctic blasts, and more snow than recent years, punctuated by periods of milder, benign patterns. This should lead us to a winter that we’re more accustomed to around here. As mentioned in my initial winter forecast, anything and everything is on the table!

Here’s our weekly updated ski forecast. I will rate ski conditions across northern resorts as an 8 out of 10. This is for the period between Christmas and New Year’s. There will not be an epic meltdown this year, like the disaster of last year. As mentioned above, a fast-moving storm will bring several inches of powder to many resorts tomorrow. Some favored northern resorts may receive much more than that. This will bring epic conditions for anyone thinking about skiing on Christmas Day into this upcoming weekend. Temperatures should moderate, with light winds and no major storms anticipated. As an added bonus, there will be no major meltdown as opposed to last year. A major pattern change could arrive around the New Year. This could initially bring rain and mild temperatures but watch for a turn to colder and stormier conditions as we head into the first week of the New Year. Enjoy!

Now time for your weekly outdoor winter activity & holiday forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. After the quick burst of morning light snow, the rest of the week looks quite pleasant.

Expect increasing clouds this evening. At or just after midnight, an initial patch of light snow and flurries will work across the area. Ther may be a feather dusting in some communities, but this should not affect road conditions. This is associated with warm air aloft overriding the cold air at the surface. It will be cold, with lows dropping into the teens and lower 20’s.

For your Christmas Eve, watch for wintry conditions the first half of the day. A band of snow will be tracking across the state from west to east. The snow should be moving off the coast by noontime, followed by clearing skies for your afternoon. It won’t be much, but many communities will receive a fresh dusting to perhaps one inch. As mentioned above, areas north of the Mass Pike could receive slightly more. If out and about, please be aware of some slippery driving conditions as the snow falls. This is especially true due to the recent cold temperatures. Snow will stick to untreated surfaces, possibly resulting in some icy spots. Remember, it doesn’t take much! Some of our worst traveling conditions are by the result of quick bursts of snow, not blizzards! Snow will be tracking east of Boston by 11:00 AM and clearing the coast by 1:00 PM. Thereafter, expect some partial sun to break through the clouds. Temperatures may break freezing in the afternoon, especially if we see any sun.

Christmas Eve evening should bring tranquil weather conditions. Quite seasonal in fact. I do not see any strong winds, not bitter cold temperatures. Just expect clear skies and cold temperatures, as it should be. Expect low temperatures to fall to the teens and 20’s overnight.

At this time, I’m expecting dry weather & partly sunny skies for Christmas Day. Winds may turn onshore, so we do need to watch for some ocean clouds near the coast. Temperatures should be right where they should be for Christmas Day, perhaps a touch below normal. I’m expecting high temperatures to be in the mid to upper 30’s. Dry weather should persist into Christmas night with lows mainly in the 20’s.

As for the rest of the holiday week, it looks fairly tranquil with a slight moderation in temperatures. One thing to keep an eye on is for onshore winds, which could result in some ocean cloudiness near the coast. Otherwise, temperatures should make it into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s on Thursday, lower 40’s on Friday, and possibly lower 50’s for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures should continue to be mild through New Years Eve. There may even be some rain at that time, but that’s still over one week away and things could still change. Some computer models show a colder solution, which may introduce some wintry precipitation. As for now, expect temperatures to moderate heading into New Year’s, with possibly some changes thereafter.

Well, that’s about it for now! It’s difficult to say when my next post will be written. If time permits, it would be on Monday, January 6th. If patterns remain benign, it could be mid-month. However, if I see signs of an impending winter storm, I will be sure to update everyone. If not the blog, then a special social media update. As mentioned above, I am expecting a more active and at times action packed winter, compared to the last two. I’m sure we will be communicating sooner rather than later! In the meantime, enjoy the festive flurries and the white Christmas!

Wishing everyone a Happy Holiday Season!

Happy New Year!

As the new year approaches, I wanted to thank all my loyal readers for their support, positive feedback and interactions during major weather events through the years! I enjoy looking back and reading all the comments and support! I also want to thank readers for their patience and understanding as the posts have diminished over the past year. This is due not for a lack of passion for the weather, but increasing work demands in my store. Many understand that the posts can be quite time consuming. Much of it is written off the top of my head. As always, I appreciate the kind support.

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter Forecast: Changeable! 11/25/24

Hello!! I hope everyone is well! Sorry it’s been a couple of months since my last post. Believe me, if I had the time to post more often, I would. Work commitments has certainly derailed the weekly postings. In addition, weather patterns became dormant for nearly three months since mid-August. I must say, timing was pretty good not being able to write my weekly weather posts. It just so happened the Boston area observed one of their driest falls on record! The dry spell finally ended with a two-day nor’easter last week which brought 1 to 3″ of much needed rain to the area!

Some highlights observed over this year’s version of autumn included: A rapidly developing drought, which caught everyone off-guard! Near seasonal temperatures. Aside from the exceptional warmth centered around Halloween and the first 10 days of November, autumn featured near seasonal temperatures across much of New England. Frosts and freezes were late once again but eventually arrived to everyone across the region. Logan Airport recorded its first freeze on November 14th, some 10 days behind schedule.

Fall foliage made a big comeback this year across the region. While the Boston area was shut out from fall foliage the past two years, colors returned this year, with brilliant colors arriving in late September and lasting throughout the month of October. A combination of cooler temperatures arriving the second half of August and the exceptionally dry weather, had the leaves changing early. In addition, the lack of any windstorms and rain helped keep the leaves on the trees the entire foliage season. I would say it was our best season in 6 or 7 years! The one downside of all the dry weather this fall was the exceptional number of wild/brush fires across the area…centered in northeast Mass. I have never seen so many red flag warnings posted in my entire life living here in New England! Glad that’s behind us.

As I mentioned earlier, most of the fall featured near seasonal temperatures. However, as we approached Halloween, a massive ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) began to build along the east coast. This sent temperatures soaring to record high levels. I believe it was the second warmest Halloween we ever observed. The warmth continued well into the first two weeks of November, with Boston observing its warmest day ever recorded for so late into the season on November 6th of 82 degrees! Since about the 10th, it’s been a step=down process in the temperature department this November. Around the 20th, the pattern took a decidedly cooler look. Aside from tomorrow, temperatures are expected to remain below average for the balance of the month.

With that being said, November will still go down in the books with having above normal temperatures across much of the region. How much above will still need to be ironed out. The first 10 days of the month averaged approximately 7 degrees above normal. We have chopped down the departure since, but I believe it will still end up being approximately 3 to 4 degrees above average at months end. This is important as I carefully monitor the temperature departure in November to help me assess the upcoming winter forecast. It’s not only temperatures. I also closely monitor storm tracks, precipitation and regions of cold air masses on a global level to help me evaluate the forecast.

In years past, this signal used to work like clockwork. However, with our changing climate, the signal has lost its credibility! I can no longer trust it as I used to! There were many years, going back 30 or even 40 years when a below average November would almost automatically mean above average snow coming to Boston. However, the past three below normal Novembers have proved fruitless! in 2019-20 winter Boston received 27″ of snow. In 2022-23 Boston received 12.4″. Last year was even worse, with only 9.8″ of snow being recorded! All these three years featured below normal November temperatures.  You can spin the data a million different ways and come up with several different conclusions. For instance, this November started out very warm but has since shifted to cool. I don’t think this is going to make a difference, but it could.

While the data for November is now inconclusive for a cold November, the same can’t be said for a warm November. My study shows, temperatures which averaged 3 degrees or more above average in November, featured less than average snow in Boston the following winter in nearly all cases. There were a couple of exceptions. I believe November of 1963 was warmer than average in Boston but ended up above average snow that winter. November of 1975 and 2016 were also well above average, and those winters featured near average snow. So, all is not lost!

This makes this year’s forecast is especially challenging. I see many forces battling against each other to gain the upper hand. With the past two winters being so benign, this makes this year especially volatile in my opinion. Anything and everything are on the table. After nearly two years of tranquil weather patterns, I believe this year is going to feature some interesting events. I was almost ready to write this winter completely off. However, a last second pattern change here in the second half of November brought colder temperatures, along with a two-day Nor’easter. While this storm delivered rain for us here in Boston, it brought close to 2ft of snow in the northeast part of Pennsylvania last Thursday and Friday. This storm stalled off the coast, bringing us a one two punch of heavy rain. Another coastal storm will bring more rain and interior snow on Thanksgiving Day this week! These storms showing up this time of the year can sometimes mean heavy snow in the preceding winter. If anything, it’s better to see these storms show up now, rather than nothing.

Aside from studying November temperature departures, there are many other signals I assess when compiling my winter forecast. Among some of the signals I closely monitor is the state of ENSO (El Nino Sothern Oscillation). This the area in the Southern Pacific Ocean where we observe the ocean temperatures whether it’s in El Nino (warm) or La Nina (cold). For this year, we were expecting a strengthening La Nina. This would have pretty much solidified a warmer than normal winter for the southern and eastern part of the country. However, La Nina sputtered and is now not expected to be as strong as previously thought. In fact, it has even trended more towards what they call La Nada, or neutral phase. These latest trends have significant impacts on our weather patterns coming up this winter. A weaker La Nina or neutral phase can allow other forces to play a more dominant role in our winter patterns. This could allow for high latitude blocking, aka the Greenland Block to flex its muscles, squashing the east coast ridge that has been so dominant the past two winters. This would allow cold blasts of arctic air to plunge southeastward towards the eastern part of the country. Other teleconnections such as a negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation), Positive PNA (Positive North America / western ridge), and the Polar Vortex to name a few all play a significant role in our upcoming winter patterns.

Important to note, other anti-winter signals remain at play. It’s all about what’s happening in the Pacific Ocean! A negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). A negative PNA pools cold water in the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest coast. This promotes troughing (cold & stormy) in the west, while ridging (warm & dry) takes hold in the east.

After compiling all these signals and factors together, here’s my best educated guess for my 2024-25 winter forecast. I am expecting this winter to feature some interesting events! For sure, Mother Nature is not fooling around with our upcoming winter patterns. As I mentioned earlier, anything and everything is on the table this winter. We are caught in the crossfire of dueling natural forces. Therefore, expect wild swings this winter from bitter cold temperatures, punctuated by mild tranquil periods. I’m expecting winter to come in with a bang, with cold weather to open December, possibly leading to our coldest December in 10 years around here. This should put everyone in the holiday spirit, bringing back memories of winters past. This will also allow excellent weather conditions for several outdoor winter activities we have not been able to enjoy in nearly a decade. This includes outdoor ice-skating, homemade outdoor hockey rinks, and local snow making at the Blue Hills ski area, and Wachusett Mountain! If the cold can sustain, ice-fishing can return when the ice becomes thick enough later in the winter.

I’m confident for this cold snap to last at least the first half of December. There are some signs the cold may ease heading towards Christmas, but that’s speculative at this moment. There may be a relaxation to the pattern heading into January. This may lead one to believe winter is over. However, I believe winter will return with a vengeance in February and linger into March next year. It’s tough calling for a colder than normal winter in this climate state we are in. However, with a fading La Nina and more neutral phase in the Pacific, this winter has a good of a chance than any to pull it off. Right now, I would say this winter will finish neutral to one degree below average in Boston. Colder to the north. This is a major change compared to previous years!

Now for the part everyone has been waiting for…how much SNOW are we going to receive this year?? Again, a very slippery slope here! Despite the more wintery feel this winter, I believe we are still in the midst of a low snow cycle. We are now in year 10 of the cycle, which began after the historic 2014-15 winter. In the last nine winters, seven have featured below average snowfall in Boston…some by a lot. These cycles can run anywhere from 10 to 14 years but can be random with no rhyme or reason. We are nearing the end, but I don’t believe this is the year it ends. With that being said, I do believe it snows more than the past couple of winters in Boston this year. It will feel and at times look like what a normal winter should look like. However, there are still complications for people who live along the coast east of I95. This is due to the warmer than normal oceans we continue to see off our coast. This may result in a lot of mixed precipitation events or snow turning to rain. For the city of Boston, I’m expecting between 30 and 40″ of snow this winter. This is significantly more than last winter, but still short of the average of 49″ at Logan Airport. For folks who live along the coast, I believe it’s going to take a while for snows to get cranking. While December is looking colder than average as a whole, it’s also looking quite dry. Nevertheless, I’m expecting several light snowfalls this December, with near average snow of between 7 and 10″ in Boston. As we head deeper into the winter, ocean temperatures should cool sufficiently enough to allow for more snow events closer to the coast. One large snowfall of 10″ or more cannot be ruled out this winter. Most likely in February the way I see it.

Many coastal towns and cities inside of I95 should experience similar fate to Boston but a bit snowier of course due to higher latitude and ocean temperatures slightly colder. I’m expecting between 40 and 50″ of snow in the seacoast region of New Hampshire, ranging to 50 to 60″ as one travels further up the coast to the Portland, Maine region. These are still below average by about 10 to 15″ in these locations.

Down on Cape Cod, expect warm ocean temperatures to hamper snow accumulations the first half of winter. However, more snow can be expected later in January and February as ocean temperatures cool. I am expecting between 10 and 20″ of snow this winter on Cape Cod. Heading off the Cape to Boston’s South Shore communities, between 20 and 30″ of snow can be expected.

I’m expecting above normal snowfall across the interior of New England this winter, including most of the ski resorts. Last winter was a rough one, especially around the holidays. Two late season massive snowstorms in March & April extended the season well into the spring last year. Folks who live across the interior of New England, north & west of I95, but especially north & west of I495 should experience above normal snowfall this winter, I’m expecting an active polar jet stream (cold) to at times phase with the sub-tropical jet stream (moisture) to bring plentiful snowfall to this part of New England. Higher elevations above 1500 ft will do even better, with plentiful snowfall this winter. The cold should be more sustained than last winter, so I am not expecting as many nuclear meltdowns.

As we all know, this is New England! This is my best educated guess at this time. Signals can suddenly change without notice. Mother Nature always has tricks up her sleeve. Just when you think you have all the answers, she changes the questions! It only takes one big storm to throw off the numbers. The coast is especially vulnerable to booms and busts this year. I highly doubt we have a third dud winter in a row in Boston, but anything is possible! It’s all about timing, If the cold air coincides with moisture at the optimal time, more snowfall can occur. Everyone can bump up by 10″ for the season if the storms take an offshore track, keeping us on the cold side. Conversely, we can all deduct 10″ or more if storms take a warmer inland track, leaving us on the warm side of the storm. To be on the safe side, I will update the winter forecast around the time of the winter solstice. Sometimes new patterns emerge around that time, and I can make some adjustments if needed.

Now time for your weekly outdoor activity and Thanksgiving travel forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Spectacular weather today and possibly Wednesday too. Weather goes downhill in a hurry on Thanksgiving Day and part of Black Friday.

Expect some increasing clouds overnight, Low temperatures should bottom out mainly in the mid to upper 30’s warmest in urban and coastal locations.

Watch for rain to move across the region tomorrow. I’m not expecting anything too heavy, but steady rainfall will arrive during the morning commute and will be ending during the evening commute. It will be somewhat milder with highs in the low to mid 50’s. As the storm passes through, expect winds to shift to the northwest tomorrow evening with rapidly clearing skies and colder temperatures overnight Tuesday.

Look for dry and sunny weather for the travel day Wednesday. It will feel like November with highs only in the mid 40’s with a brisk wind.

Here’s the latest for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Anything can happen on Thanksgiving Day around here. This year will be no exception. A poorly timed storm system will be approaching New England on Thanksgiving. This storm is expected to track just south of New England, keeping us on the colder side of the storm. Had it been a little colder, we all would have been looking at a White Thanksgiving. Expect mostly rain to begin early in the morning for areas south of I90 (Mass Pike). This rain should continue for most of the day with high temperatures near 40 degrees. For areas north of the Mass Pike including up into southern New Hampshire, there will be a mixture of snow, sleet and rain which may linger for several hours. This could result in some slippery travel. Please advise. If you live or are travelling anywhere in northern New England from a line from Rutland, Vermont, to Lebanon, N.H. to Concord points north, expect a snowy Thanksgiving Day with several inches of wet snow to even perhaps up to a half a foot of snowfall. This includes much of the state of Maine with the exception of the immediate coast where mainly rain will fall. Not a major storm, but a disruptive one for sure.

Precipitation may linger into Thursday night. Any areas that saw a mix may flip to some light snow. Areas that saw rain will continue seeing rain, especially along the coast. Temperatures will fall to the low to mid 30’s. Watch for slippery travel conditions, regardless of if it’s wet or white.

Any lingering rain or snow should be moving off the coast by midday Friday. Expect mainly cloudy weather for the balance of the afternoon. It will be a chilly, raw day with highs mainly in the low 40’s.

Sunny & dry weather to follow the storm this weekend. Saturday will see highs in the low 40’s. It turns colder on Sunday, with highs mainly in the upper 30’s. Dry weather should persist for much of the first week of December. One thing you will notice is a change to winter-like temperatures, Get the winter gear ready as highs will only be in the 20’s and 30’s next week, with lows in the teens and twenties. Looking way ahead, a clipper type system may bring some light snow next weekend, but that’s just a chance at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now my friends! Please feel free to ask any questions or leave a comment. Now that we are entering winter, I will need to be on the watch for any winter weather that may threaten the region. My next post is scheduled for Monday, December 23rd. I will be updating this winter forecast at that time. If any winter storms or severe weather is imminent, I will be sure to update everyone through social media accounts or my blog. In the meantime, changeable is not all bad. It can also mean warm too!

~Wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! ~

Stay safe & be well.

Pete

Early Fall? 9/23/24

Hello! Happy fall! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It’s been a while since my last post, so there’s a lot to discuss! Unfortunately, my time prohibits a lengthy discussion. Growing work commitments and general lack of eventful weather has taken the steam out of my consistent posts. Nonetheless, I continue to closely follow global weather patterns and their impacts. Twenty-nine straight sunny & dry days beginning in mid-August did not inspire any late breaking weather posts!

My last post was a few days before the Fourth of July! Yes, we have crossed into a brand-new season since then. As mentioned above, most if not all of this period featured very few if any weather events. If you enjoy active weather with frequent changes, this has not been the pattern for you. In fact, this benign weather can be traced back nearly two years now. We now have observed two straight non-winters, and quite possibly a third on its way! But I’m getting ahead of myself!

After nearly two years of lackluster weather patterns, there was finally something to talk about this past weekend. A slow-moving early season Nor’easter developed southeast of New England last week. At first, computer models were keeping the bulk of this storm out at sea. However, as the week progressed, it was becoming more and more apparent that this storm was going to retrograde back towards the coast, bringing with it wind & rain. What computer models were struggling with was just how much? Many models continued to keep the heaviest rainfall offshore.

After weeks of dry weather, Mother Nature began to take control of the situation. Northeast winds freshened along the coast, as bands of moisture began to pinwheel in off of the ocean. It was questionable whether Boston would be included in the heavy rain or not. I was watching the radar closely as the band began to encroach the coast late Friday night. By Saturday morning, soaking rains pushed back as far as I495 with gusty northeasterly winds. As miserable of a day as it was, we were long overdue for a good soaking.

Yet, Boston was far removed from the brunt of the storm. The bullseye for this particular Nor’easter was felt on Cape Cod, where between 5 and 8″ of rain fell. There were even isolated official reports of up to 11″ plus fell in the Chatham, Harwich region. In addition to the rain, northeast gales whipped up the ocean, resulting in moderate beach erosion and pockets of coastal flooding. I was in contact with my friend Laz in Chatham, and he confirmed the deluge as well as some structural damage and boats washing ashore. There were other reports and video of waves crashing over sea walls along the Massachusetts coast. I must say, for a non-tropical system here in September, it was quite impressive.

Before the storm, we enjoyed 29 straight days without any measurable precipitation here in Boston. What a stretch of weather! It just doesn’t get any better than that! After nearly 18 months of non-stop rains, the spigot was finally turned off! I have always said, New England experiences different climates at any given time from all across the country, if not the world! This time around I believe the climate was similar to San Diego, California! Who could argue? Day after day of sunny skies, low humidity, and temperatures in the low 80’s.

With an approaching La Nina, I believe drier weather patterns will be evolving heading into this winter. This doesn’t mean no rain for a month straight, just not the flooding rains we have been experiencing since last summer through this past winter. In fact, we have another rainy day coming up this Thursday.

With autumn beginning yesterday, many friends and family members have been commenting on the early splashes of fall foliage. Indeed, late August and early September offered perfect conditions for the leaves to start thinking fall! The Boston area has not seen a proper foliage season for several years now. Last summer and fall were exceptionally wet with very warm & humid temperatures. This allowed the trees to continue receiving plenty of nutrition deep into the fall. The warm & humid weather tricked the trees into thinking it was still summer. Therefore, the trees remained green all the way through October. A sudden freeze in November ended the party, but by then it was too late. The leaves froze, turned brown and fell off the trees. Awful!

Will this year be different? So far, so good, but I have my concerns. It started out perfect, with a sudden drop in temperatures in mid-August. This brought clear, cool nights with very low humidity. These conditions continued deep into September, with sunny, warm days and clear cool nights. Once again, low dew point temperatures allowed temperatures to drop into the 40’s and 50’s even in Boston. This, along with the exceptionally dry weather, had trees changing colors earlier than normal.

Folks, it’s all relative to be honest. What’s early this year, was actually normal 40 years ago. Back then, the first chill of autumn was felt nearly every year come September. Leaves would begin to change in September, with peak fall colors around Columbus Day weekend around the Boston area. With oceans warming and an overall warming climate, peak fall foliage is now a good two weeks later than what it used to be around here. In addition, colors have not been as bright. Black tar disease and warmer temperatures have left many trees with muted or non-existent colors.

What about this year? So far, colors are running ahead of schedule up north. This too could be as a result of the extremely dry conditions up in that region. While we had rain over the weekend, there was no precipitation up north. One thing that is lacking is some chilly temperatures. If we had just a few nights down into the 30’s it would set the leaves on fire! I do see some temperatures getting down into the 40’s this weekend. This may be just cool enough to active the tree to change colors. Right now, if you plan on heading for a fall foliage trip, you will need to head up to the White Mountains of New Hampshire, and the Green Mountains of Vermont. By this weekend, I’m expecting about 50% leaf change up there. It may be the following weekend when peak foliage arrives up there. With the dry conditions, leaves can change quickly without notice!

For us down here in southern New England, we still have a way to go. As encouraging as it was to see some early fall colors, I’m growing somewhat concerned heading into October. La Nina years can be extremely volatile. At this point, I’m optimistic for a brighter foliage season than past several years. If we continue to observe foliage changing earlier, we could end up with peak colors arriving in Boston the last week of October leading up to Halloween. As long as temperatures don’t warm up too much, and some chilly nights arrive in October. This would be a welcome change from mid-November the past couple of years!

Some La Nina’s bring late season summer temperatures well into November. Other La Nina’s bring an October chill, a severe windstorm or early snow! Does everyone remember October 2011? This was a La Nina year, which brought the historic Halloween Blizzard to interior New England. That winter turned out being one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record! I’m not saying this is going to happen, but I’m going to keep a close eye on October. We have had some strange weather in October in recent years. I could envision early season cold meeting up with a tropical system moving up the coast. This could result in a early season snowfall for interior New England. Computer models have been all over the place. For two months in a row NOAA monthly outlooks have been placing too much emphasis on warmer than normal temperatures in New England. August finished slightly below average, and September is set to finish neutral, or very close to seasonal average.

For what it’s worth, NOAA’s winter outlook is calling for well above average temperatures this winter for much of the eastern part of the United States. This includes us here in New England. Other reliable seasonal forecasts from such models as the ECMWF, known as the European is calling for a blow torch winter with hardly any snowfall for December, January and February. If taken verbatim, this would imply one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record for Boston this year. This is coming off two of the warmest and least snowy winters on record, winters 2022-23 and 2023-24 here in Boston. These were absolute duds!

The outlook for this winter remains uncertain to say the least! At first, I was in agreement with the non-winter outlook. But the more I continue to evaluate the big picture, the more skeptical I become. By non-winter I would be talking about snowfall accumulations of 10″ or less. This would be pitiful. Many would argue accumulations of 20″ or less would qualify as a non-winter. At this point, we would be in uncharted territory. We already broke a record last winter for having back-to-back winters in Boston with less than 20″ accumulations. That had never happened in recorded history. To have a third winter with less than 20″ of snowfall in Boston would be truly unprecedented. I suppose anything is possible these days. I will say this, recent computer models are showing global ocean temperatures beginning to cool. Could this have an impact on our climate this winter? It’s possible computer models are not factoring this latest trend. As we head deeper into autumn, I will update everyone on my latest thinking for our upcoming winter season. At the very least, my winter forecast will be posted on November 25th.

Before the weekly forecast, here’s a quick summer recap. I would give my forecast a B-. What started out so strong, ended up fizzling in the end! My initial forecast called for between 14 and 17 ninety-degree days. After new guidance and a torrid June heat wave, I increased that number to 17 to 20.  Things looked promising after a hotter than normal June, followed by a much hotter than normal July. However, after a hot first week of August, hot temperatures abruptly ended. Overall, it was a much hotter than normal summer across much of New England. When we look back at the raw numbers to this summer in history, it will be very deceiving. Boston’s Logan Airport officially recorded only 12 ninety-degree days! This is actually two less than normal! However, when one looks at observations from other locations, even locations within the city neighborhoods, many places observed 20+ 90-degree days! This was due to a very light and feeble sea-breeze which occurred on nearly a daily basis at Logan Airport, holding temperature just below 90 there. I believe there were at least a half dozen days of high temperature at Logan of 89 degrees! Precipitation was on point! I called for a much better summer than last summer. Dryer, but still with episodes of rain to keep the lawns and gardens happy. I also called for a much drier second half of summer and which indeed happened.

Now for our weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I would give this week a 7 out of 10. Big improvements as we head into Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

After a mainly cloudy day, expect clouds to linger overnight, with low temperatures falling into the low to mid 50’s. Not much difference between urban and rural areas tonight due to the cloud cover.

With a persistent onshore flow, expect low clouds and patchy areas of fog for your Tuesday and Wednesday. This does not mean it will be cloudy all of the time. Expect the most clouds to be during the morning hours, with breaks of sunshine developing late morning and into the afternoon. With a northeast wind, temperatures should remain cool, with highs only in the mid 60’s across the region. This is about 5 degrees cooler than normal.

A warm front will be approaching the region later Wednesday. Expect clouds to increase after any early sun. There actually may be some renegade showers first thin in the morning, especially north and west of Boston. Some computer models are showing this. Overall, it should be a mainly dry day.

As the storm system and associated warm from approaches New England, expect rain to overspread the region later Wednesday evening. Normally, this type of system would bring just a few showers and move north of the region. However, there is a robust -NAO in place, aka the Greenland Block. This is going to slow down the system and allow more precipitation to develop than what normally would. Therefore, expect a rather wet day for your Thursday, with generally a half inch to one inch of rainfall.

High pressure should begin to build down from Canada on Friday and suppress this complex system off to our south. This should allow for some clearing skies building n for your Friday, with temperatures remaining in the 60’s.

Strong high pressure should continue to protect our region throughout the upcoming weekend. At this point, I’m optimistic that we should enjoy dry conditions, with temperatures starting off cool, but possibly eclipsing 70 degrees with sunshine on Sunday. I hope this all works out! Many folks are planning on enjoying outdoor fall activities including hiking, camping, apple picking and fall festivals!

Well, that’s about it for now my friends! Honestly, I do not know when my next post will be written. I made time today, but who knows in the coming weeks. I can promise you at least one post during October, then of course the winter forecast on November 25th. If time permits, I will write more. I appreciate your continued support and understanding! If a severe storm threatens, I will be sure to update everyone through social media. In the meantime, wherever your travels may bring you, take time to enjoy what many believe is our best season here in New England!

Be safe and thank you for reading!

Pete

July 4th Special…Warm & Dry! 7/1/24

Hello! Happy July 1st! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Both Friday & Saturday featured mainly sunny skies and pleasant temperatures. Sunday was also warm, but with the addition of high humidity. During the afternoon, a line of showers & thunderstorms crossed the region. As is typical of afternoon summer thunderstorms, some received more than others. They were worse south of Boston, specifically across Connecticut. Overall, it was a decent summer weekend across the region. Sunday was not the best beach day, but it wasn’t bad to be near the water, or take a stroll in town. I guess anything is better than the blistering heat wave we felt back in June!

As has been the case for what seems like several years now, June was yet another month that featured warmer than normal temperatures across the region. Boston finished close to three degrees above average, thanks in large part to the three-day heat wave. We also reached 90 degrees 4 times last month, which is one above the average of three. By the way, this was the first heat wave in Boston in two years. There were no heat waves recorded in the city last summer. A heat wave is achieved when a location observes three consecutive days of 90-degree temperatures. While it wasn’t excessively wet, we did receive timely beneficial rainfall mainly in the form of heavy showers & thunderstorms.

Looking over some of the long-range information today, I am expecting July to be similar to June, perhaps even a bit more extreme. This means I am expecting warm to at times hot weather this month along with episodes of thunderstorm activity. Boston typically averages approximately 5 ninety-degree days in July. This July, I am expecting between 7 and 10. Despite the heat, rainfall will be plentiful, with no signs of drought conditions. Cooler air will at times filter into New England, bringing with it showers & thunderstorms along the boundary where the cool air meets the hot air. While I do not see a repeat of last summer’s deluge and flooding, there will be enough rain at times to keep an eye on rivers & streams. Hopefully the rain comes at times so many can enjoy outdoor activities this summer. Timing is everything!

Statistically speaking, Boston has its best chance for fair weather on July 4th. This means the city has its lowest chance of rain and cloudy weather on this date. Along with all the anomalies in weather patterns we have seen lately, this was not the case for the past two or three years! Boston fireworks display has been dodging showers and thunderstorms the past couple years. While not raining last year during the display, a sudden wind shift from off the ocean brought an illed timed fog bank into the esplanade from off of the ocean. This obscured the visibility, leaving muted colors, as the fireworks exploded in the thick fog above. Two years ago, the entire esplanade needed to be evacuated from the threat of severe thunderstorms. I can’t remember for sure, but there was another year, possibly three years ago when the entire event was postponed until July 5th due to a soaking rainstorm. Ugh!

Will our fortune change this year? I believe they will! Appropriately timed weather systems look to clear the coast this evening, bringing fair weather to much of New England for both tomorrow & Wednesday. Many coastal towns celebrate the 4th on July 3rd with fireworks displays lighting off from the beach. At this point, Wednesday evening is shaping up to be fine, with clear skies and warm breezes. Conditions on the 4th itself look similar. However, you will notice an uptick in the heat and humidity on July 4th. There will be a frontal boundary approaching New England on Thursday. Right now, I’m expecting this front to remain well north and west of the Boston area and Cape Cod. With that being said, there’s always a chance of some isolated thunderstorms as the atmosphere heats up. Isolated means about 5% of the area may see a storm, which means 95% of us will remain dry. No wash outs of any consequence are expected! In addition, with the increase in humidity, I’m slightly concerned some coastal areas could encounter some areas of fog. Fog is tricky to forecast, as it’s dependent on whether the dew point temperatures match the air temperature, and if winds turn onshore. I’m not expecting anything at this point, but just making you aware these things do occur in summer air masses like this.

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to bring your attention to the southern Caribbean Islands, the lesser Antilles & Grenada. It was barely 48 hours ago a mere tropical disturbance was poised to become our second named storm “Beryl” in this very early hurricane season. Less than 24 hours later the storm rapidly intensified into a strong category 3 storm, with winds of 125 mph. Less than 24 hours later, Beryl is now a strong category 4 borderline 5 storm with winds of 150 mph! This intense hurricane is already breaking records for one of the strongest so early in the season, and as to how quickly it intensified. Being only the second named storm of the season, “B” storms are typically very weak tropical storms, barely lasting a day or two. This should be a huge warning signal for this upcoming hurricane season. June is barely over, and we already are on to the third name of the season, and one catastrophic storm in Beryl. Experts have warned that this season could be the most active hurricane season on record with up to 30 named storms developing. Ocean temperatures are at historic high levels. We have an incoming La Nina, which reduces wind shear, allowing storms to develop quickly. I mentioned it before, if there’s any hurricane season New England needs to be on guard, it’s this one. I will be closely monitoring the tropics this summer and will be sure to update everyone as conditions warrant.

Time for your weekly beach and boating forecast. After today, I am expecting good to excellent beach and boating weather from Tuesday through the 4th itself. Thereafter, the weather looks a bit more shaky, but again, no washouts are anticipated at this time. Friday the 5th looks like another warm summery day. There is an increased risk of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm, so be aware of that. Southwest winds mean there will be a chop on the water, especially off south facing beaches of Cape Cod. There’s another chance of thunderstorms on Saturday. Out of all the days, this may be the most unsettled. This is just a forecast at this point, not set in stone. It could easily turn out nice, with the rain arriving overnight, Sunday may start off murky, but I’m expecting some sun to burn through leading up to a fairly nice beach day. All the time, temperatures should warm into the lower 80’s, along east coast beaches and Cape Cod.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity & holiday forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

A disturbance will be passing through New England today bringing with it a cold pool aloft. This is resulting in an unstable atmosphere. I have noticed a few showers and even thunderstorms pop up around the Greater Boston area. Albeit brief, don’t be surprised if there’s a quick downpour across some communities this afternoon. There may even be some small hail. This activity will diminish as the sun sets this evening. Skies should clear overnight.

Now for the good news. For the period of Tuesday through Thursday, I’m expecting generally fair weather with a warming trend. Watch for high temperatures to warm from the lower 80’s Tuesday, mid 80’s Wednesday, and mid to upper 80’s possibly close to 90 on 4th of July! There’s nothing like a warm summer’s night, as dusk slowly encroaches, awaiting spectacular fireworks! As I mentioned earlier, there will be a slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm on July 4th, but the majority of the regions should remain dry.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday will remain warm, but with a front in the area, there is an increased risk of a few showers and thunderstorms across the region. Highest chance for storms appears to be later Saturday into Sunday morning. Perhaps lingering on the Cape a bit on Sunday morning. Before that, you may sneak in a beach day on Saturday. As mentioned before, timing is everything! Let’s hope it all works out!

Next week may feature a few hot days alternating with seasonable ones. Overall, it’s looking warm to hot for the foreseeable future. Get your AC’s ready!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post is tentatively scheduled for Monday, July 22nd. However, this is dependent on many factors such as work schedule, time off, and severe weather events. In my next post, I will be discussing in more detail our upcoming hurricane season. and what implications this may have on us here in New England. I will also be monitoring our summer heat, and letting you know how long it may continue for. In the meantime, put the umbrella away after today, and break out the beach gear! Nice Fourth of July weather is back in New England…we deserve it!

~Happy Independence Day, everyone! ~

Be safe!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer Arrives…With A Vengeance! 6/17/24

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Father’s Day weekend! After Friday’s thunderstorms, the weekend remained dry and warm. This is especially true on Saturday. Sunday featured onshore breezes which kept the beaches on the cooler side. Overall, we couldn’t ask for a much better weather for the last official weekend of spring. Remember last June was the start of the summer deluge, with weekend and holiday washouts throughout the summer. Just awful!! While Saturday featured perfect summer weather, some would of liked it a bit warmer on Sunday for beach and boating. As the saying goes, be careful what you wish for! By this weekend many will be requesting this weather back, as the whiplash temperature swings continue.

Last post featured my summer forecast. Looking over the latest data, I see no reason to make any significant changes. In fact, if I were to tweak anything, it would be to make the forecast hotter than what I’m expecting. I base how hot summers are with how many 90 degree days we observe. Yes, it may be very warm and humid with many days in the 80’s, similar to last year, but when temperatures reach 90 degrees plus, the heat reaches a different threshold.

After a couple scorching summers, last year Boston only observed five 90 degree days…well short of the average of 14. The reason for the cooler summer was partly due to the excessive rains we received, but also due to the incoming El Nino, Incoming El Ninos are notorious for cooler, wetter summers, and that’s exactly what we received. Still, with all the rainy days, and excessive cloud cover, we still managed to have an oppressively muggy summer, with many warm overnight low temperatures which continued well into autumn. This led to a summer which was much warmer than one would think.

This combination of record rainfall and warm temperatures extending deep into autumn, essentially ruined fall foliage season last year. Due to plentiful nutrients and warm temperatures, leaves remained green and on the trees well into October and in some cases November. Eventually, the warmth could not last, and colder temperatures arrived by mid-November, finally allowing the trees to drop their leaves. By Thanksgiving, all the leaves were off the trees. However, one of these years, I believe it’s going to be such a warm fall, the leaves are going to remain on the trees until December. Could it be this year?

This summer, we have an incoming La Nina. If you love cooler summer temperatures and crisp autumn weather, this is not what you want to see! Contrary, if you love building summer heat and drier weather patterns, La Nina is your go to! La Nina’s signature is strong ridges of high pressure in the eastern part of the U.S. During summer, this can mean heat domes developing (ridge of high pressure) with brutally hot weather under them. For this summer, computer models are forecasting this heat dome to be anchored across the Midwest, occasionally surging into New England. The potential is there for repetitive heat waves and drought. I hate to use the word drought after so much rain we have seen, but it only takes a month or two of below normal rain to see drought conditions return. If you don’t like hot weather, I would say book an extended trip to Alaska!

After studying the weather here in New England practically my entire life, I can tell you one thing with near certainty. Hot weather arriving near on or on the summer solstice only foretells of more hot weather in the coming months. My preliminary summer forecast made on May 20th called for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days in Boston. I am going to bump this up to between 17 and 20 days. I still feel this is a conservative range. But based upon many global factors, it would not shock me if this turns into the hottest summer on record in Boston. I’m not calling for that at the moment, but just wanted to let you know the potential is there. Record warm ocean temperatures, incoming strengthening La Nina and high solar activity is like the triple crown jewel for a seasonal summer forecast.

Not to get too far ahead of myself, but there are indications this pattern could persist into this upcoming autumn and winter. Some long range computer models are showing warm temperatures & below normal snowfall may continue through winter 2024-25. It’s still too early to tell for sure. La Nina’s are fickle, and could have a different look come winter, depending upon how ocean temperatures look globally. While La Nina’s typically mean a hot & dry summer, winter La Nina in New England could mean mild & dry or cold & snowy. I will look into those prospects in more detail come September. We are living in warm times, indeed!

The only fly in the ointment that *could* derail this summer forecast is the upcoming hurricane season. Similar to global factors I mentioned above, record warm ocean temperatures and incoming La Nina’s typically mean an active hurricane season is imminent. Computer models are forecasting a super active season, with possibly up to 30 named storms! Some computer models are indicating a large “fetch” of above normal precipitation across the Caribbean region, slamming into Florida and parts of the U.S. southeast coast.  The dilemma arises on whether some of this precipitation, or possibly even a tropical storm or even hurricane decides to make the turn and head north up into New England. Those same computer models do indeed show enhanced “wetness” across much of New England later this summer into September. This could possibly mean New England could be in line with enhanced tropical rainfall from either remnants of storms, or even a tropical storm or hurricane itself! I believed I mentioned it before, but if there’s any year we really need to be on guard from a tropical threat, it’s this year!

Regardless on whether we hit a record number of 90 days or not, this summer is going to be much hotter than last summer. We may have as many 90 degree days by the end of this week as we had all of last summer! By the way, the hottest summer recorded in Boston dates back to 1983, when the city observed a whopping 30 ninety degree days! The only question is how much rain are we going to see? At this moment, I would say we are going to see less number of rainy days. Already this June is much drier than last June. However, there’s that tropical signal that has me concerned. It may be that we have less rainy days this summer, but if one or two tropical storms hit, we could experience well above normal rain in a day or two leading to flooding across the region. Something I will closely monitor as we head deeper into summer.

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10 for these summer activities. Be prepared, it’s going to get hot! Expect hot weather from Tuesday through Friday this week throughout the New England region. Temperatures are expected to reach into the low 90’s tomorrow, mid 90’s on Wednesday, upper 90’s to near 100 on Thursday, and mid 90’s on Friday. There will be some showers & thunderstorms in the region trying to break the heat wave later on Friday and into the upcoming weekend. If you are looking for some relief, there may be some local sea breezes at are beaches which may keep the beach 5 to 10 degrees cooler. If the temperature is close to 100 Thursday, that would still mean 90 to 95 at the beach. Looks good to be out on a boat. Just monitor southwesterly winds on the south side of New England with an increased chop. Also monitor increased threat of thunderstorms on Friday heading into this weekend.

Here’s your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of your Monday. Enjoy the temperatures today, they will be the most comfortable of the entire week. With that being said, temperatures will be a good 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs in the upper 70’s and low 80’s. Dew point temperatures will be increasing, so it may begin to feel a bit more uncomfortable as we move deeper into the afternoon and evening. Remember, the dew point temperature is the actual indicator on how much moisture there is in the air. The higher the dew point temperature, the more muggy it feels against our bodies.

Look for a warm evening across the region, It will be a pleasant evening for a walk in the park or neighborhood. It will begin to feel more summery as dew point temperatures begin to increase, and air temperatures remain warm. I’m not expecting any widespread rain, however, there is a slight chance for a brief shower or sprinkles as the the real warm air begins surging into New England.

Watch for heat wave conditions to overspread all of New England on Tuesday. With a gusty south to southwesterly wind, the only place you will find relief is along New England’s south coast, Cape & the Islands, and also parts of Cape Ann. Otherwise, expect very warm to hot temperatures to settle into the region. Many locations just west & north of Boston have heat advisories up for feel like temperatures between 100 and 105. This will only increase as we head into Wednesday and Thursday. Air temperatures should make it to 90 to 92 degrees in Boston, and mid 90’s just inland from the city. There may be a feeble sea breeze at Logan Airport for part of the day holding temperatures to just below 90. Just a technicality. It will still be hot everywhere else.

Not much relief Tuesday night or any other night this week, with overnight lows remaining in the low 70’s with high dew point temperatures.

This is an unusual heat wave in where the hottest temperatures may actually be felt across northern New England! Many locations may see their hottest June temperatures on record! Northern Maine has issued heat advisories and warnings for the first time on record. They are expecting air temperatures close to 100 degrees, and heat index between 105 and 110!

It’s not going to be much better around here Wednesday and Thursday. Expect hot temperatures as the heat wave peaks, with high temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees, with a heat index between 105 and 110 degrees. Thursday should be the hottest day, as we welcome the first official day of astronomical summer! These temperatures are incredibly hot any time of the year. However, when they occur on or around the solstice, it has a different bite to it. This is due to the extremely high sun angle on this day, making the heat feel worse. Boston could tie or eclipse the record high of 98 degrees. Boston has hit 100 degrees only three times on record, the last time was on the last day of June as recently as 2021.

Please check in on the elderly and pets. Make sure they have adequate air conditioning and hydration. Take care of yourself too!

There may be more clouds around on Friday as a cool front slowly approaches. There may be a chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. Any storm in this type of air mass could turn severe, so monitor local forecasts. Temperatures may still soar to the low to mid 90’s. If clouds hold off, it could be even hotter than that.

At this point, I do not see any push of cooler & drier air anytime soon. Instead, we may be straddling the intense heat to our south, and slightly less hot air to our north. Therefore, I’m expecting slightly cooler weather for much of New England this weekend, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. With a quasi stationary front in the area, there will be a chance of some showers & thunderstorms. Though I do not expect a complete washout, there will be wet weather at times. This is especially true across inland areas during peak heating hours in the afternoon and evening.

Whatever cooling occurs this weekend will be temporary and fleeting. I’m expecting additional hot weather to return several more times for the remainder of June into at least the first half of July. By the time I post again, Boston may already be approaching the yearly summer average of 14 ninety degree days!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post is scheduled for Monday, July 15th. However, I am planning on a short special “4th of July forecast” post on Monday, July 1st with a forecast for the upcoming 4th of July holiday week and weekend. As always, if any severe weather or storm threatens before then, I will be sure to update everyone. In the meantime, enjoy the upcoming hot weather…the days begin to shorten the day after the solstice!

~Happy Birthday to my sister Pam!!~ (June 11th)

Go Celtics!!!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer Forecast: Hotter…Not as Wet! 5/20/24

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was yet another cloudy, cold and rainy weekend across parts of Massachusetts. It may of not been raining where you live all the time, but I can assure you, many communities across the interior were soaked with between 1 and 2″ of rain on Saturday. If it wasn’t raining along the coast, stiff northeast winds and drizzle made it miserable just the same. Later on Saturday, the rain moved in close to Boston, making for a cold, wet evening. Sunday was still cloudy and drizzly, though most of the heavy rains were done.

I apologize for the lack of posts in recent months. As I mentioned a while back, the combination of mounting tasks at my store, and lack of overall weather events, have meant a prolonged spell of diminished posts. I’m still here, and I am still following our ever changing climate closely! If you love storms and exciting weather as much as I do, well, the past couple of years has not much of anything to write home about..at least here in the Boston area. Yes, I saw norther New England received a couple good late spring snowstorms this year to extend the ski season a few weeks. Other than that, it’s been all about the rain…and lots of it!

Many folks are asking me when all this rain is going to stop? I will try to answer this question to the best of my ability, but the true answer is only Mother Nature knows for sure. After a severe drought two years ago, last summer began with a bang, with heavy rain arriving on June 1st. In fact, last summer was the complete opposite of the previous summer. Rains that dried up on their approach two summers ago, intensified last summer, leading to multiple washouts and floods…mostly on holidays & weekends! It turned out being the wettest summer on record in Boston, and the second wettest in Boston! You would think it would of rained itself out? Mother Nature had other plans. Other than November and February, heavy rains continued through the winter, bringing streams and rivers beyond flood stage multiple times across the region. March was the wettest month, with many locations receiving between 10 and 15″ of rain!

I have no exact answers. However, what I do know is our area has seen a multi-year multi-decade precipitation deficit. You may of thought things were normal, but many towns & communities were running 2 to 4 ft deficits since about the mid 2000’s. The drought two summers ago seemed to be the peak of the dry spell in our region. Since then, it’s been pouring buckets seemingly every three days or so. Many of these rainstorms have been occurring during weekends and holidays. For example, the 4th of July & Labor Day weekends have been a washouts the past couple of years. Not good!

Is it ever going to end. Yes, Mother Nature will eventually balance things off. Longtime Boston area meteorologist Mark Rosenthal frequently says, “The extremes make the averages.” This is so true for our climate here in New England. Eventually, the rains will subside, and we’ll start the entire cycle all over again!

Same goes with the growing snow deficit in and around Boston the past several years. We all remember the epic winter of 2014-15? Boston nearly had three winters in one that season. Mother Nature may still be reverting back to the mean average after that season. In fact, Boston received three well above seasons in a row beginning with the 2012-13 year, culminating with the 2014-15 season. Since then, Boston has recorded two above years, and 7 below average seasons. Eventually, the cycle will change, and the snowy winters will return.

While the weather patterns have been somewhat dormant as of late, the same can’t be said for our solar system! From the epic solar eclipse to the recent northern lights event, the celestial skies are alive, picking up the slack for the dormant weather patterns. Did anyone catch the northern lights event early morning hours of May 11th? Unfortunately, I underestimated the strength of the solar storm, and figured I wouldn’t be able to see them here in Boston. As it turned out, the geomagnetic storm reached record strong levels. Apparently, the KP levels reached an astonishing level 9 that night. The chart ranges from 0 to 9. This was strong enough to bring one of the most intense northern lights shows to many locations in more than 20 years! Yes, colorful lights were strong enough to shine through intense light pollution to be seen in the Boston area! If you were up at Millennium Park, some people took some fantastic photos! Other notable sightings around our area came in from Cape Cod, Gloucester, Needham and many other towns around the area. My weather friend Scott Dunlop posted some amazing pictures from Connecticut! Up in northern New England, the sky lit up with greens, pinks and reds in New Hampshire and Maine. Of course Mt Washington was ground zero for this event, though spectacular photos were also taken at the Nubble Lighthouse in York, Maine.

What causes the northern lights? First, a massive sunspot formed on the southeast corner of the sun. They say this sunspot was 30 times larger than earth. This ejected a massive solar flare of geomagnetic electrons towards earth. It just so happened, the most intense matter collided with earth’s magnetic field at the darkest time of the night. As the electrons hit the magnetic field, it gets deflected towards the poles. These electrons then collide with gases as they enter earth’s atmosphere releasing the intense colors we see here on earth. Because this storm was so intense, the charged particles extended much further south than a typical event. It’s one of natures most fascinating shows! There may be another opportunity for a northern lights show in a couple of weeks as the massive sunspot faces the earth again. We shall see if it still has the energy it once had on the May 11th event.

Circling back to our summer forecast, I have some good news and not so good news this year. The good news is that I’m expecting this summer to be much hotter than last summer. If you recall, Boston only mustered 5 ninety degree days last summer. This was due to the excessive rainfall and incoming El Nino. On average, Boston receives around 14 ninety degree days. This summer, we have an incoming La Nina. Summers with an incoming La Nina typically start off cool, but then become hot to very hot second half of July and much of August. Therefore, I’m expecting many more 90 degree days this summer, possibly triple from last summer. For this reason, I’m expecting between 14 and 17 ninety degree days in Boston this summer. A steady northwest flow should keep the most intense heat away from New England centered in the middle of the country. However, should we get more of a west to southwest flow, we could experience some very hot days, especially in August.

While I believe it will be less wet this summer than last year, it won’t be totally dry either. The wettest month to me appears to be June and September. The driest months should be July and August. I do not see upper level low pressure systems parking themselves over New England bringing endless days of rain like what happened last summer. However, there will be rain from different threats. I’m expecting a higher than average number of thunderstorms this summer across much of New England. These in itself can bring drenching downpours with localized flooding. What will make this summer different is that systems are not going to stall over New England this summer. Thunderstorms will come, may be intense, but continue to move offshore. This should bring a happy medium of enough water for lawns and gardeners, but also bring much better weather for beach goers and summer vacationers this summer. As I mentioned earlier, August looks to be the driest and hottest month of the summer the way I’m seeing things right now.

What’s the bad news? With La Nina returning, volatile weather events may soon follow. Experts are forecasting a much higher than average Atlantic hurricane season this year. With low wind shear, expect storms to have very little trouble blowing up into large hurricanes. In addition, ocean temperatures are running at historic high levels across the MDR (main development region) across the south Atlantic and Caribbean Ocean. Some outlets are calling for between 25 and 30 named storms, with 7 to 10 majors. This is nearly triple the average. This does not automatically mean a devastating season is imminent. A few years ago we had a similar year, but very few storms made landfall.

However, as the saying goes, it only takes one storm to make landfall resulting in billions of dollars in damages. As for New England, it’s always a tough call. At this moment, the steering currents do not look conducive to bring hurricanes up the coast to New England. However, as the season progresses, tropical moisture from storms down south may surge up the coast resulting in heavy rains during September and October this year. I will keep a close eye on how this season evolves. The parameters are there for quite an active season, if not historic.

Time for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. This will include the outlook for the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend. I will give this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect fair weather and mild temperatures overnight with no weather issues.

Watch for mainly sunny weather and much warmer temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, temperatures will finally reach 80 degrees in Boston for the first time this season tomorrow. Highs should be about 82 tomorrow, and possibly as high as 86 on Wednesday. Tomorrow should feature low levels of humidity, but as the temperatures rise on Wednesday, it will feel slightly more humid.

Temperatures will remain warm on Thursday. However, an approaching cold front will swing a line of showers and thunderstorms through the region sometime during mid to late afternoon.

As the front seeps off the coast, expect clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures to settle into New England for both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures should still remain at comfortable levels in the low to mid 70’s with mainly sunny conditions.

Fair weather should continue into Sunday. However, I do see some clouds increasing Sunday afternoon into the evening. Temperatures should reach the lower 70’s once again.

A fairly progressive storm system may bring a period of showers to eastern Massachusetts later Sunday evening into Monday morning.

It’s a ways out, but hopefully that system will be progressive enough to allow for clearing skies during Monday afternoon and evening. If there are any delays in the upper air pattern, this would result in a slower exit of this system, and a more unsettled Memorial Day. Too difficult to say at this point. Check in with local media outlets for the latest weather updates for Memorial Day. Saturday & Sunday appear lovely at this moment.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post will focus on an updated version of the summer forecast. If severe weather or major storms threaten, I will be sure to keep everyone posted. In the meantime, enjoy the Memorial Day weekend with family & friends. Please also remember veterans who made the ultimate sacrifice, and the courageous men & woman who help bring us the freedom we enjoy today.

~Remembering those we love this Memorial Day weekend~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Solar Eclipse 2024 Is Here!! 4/8/24

Hello! It’s been a while! I hope everyone is fairing, well! Unexpected events has prevented me from updating the weather blog. Since we last spoke back at the end of February, Boston has accumulated a whopping .1″ of snow. To say it has been an underwhelming snow season along the I95 corridor is an understatement. In fact, if it holds, it will go down as the third least snowiest winter in recorded history in Boston. The least being the 1936-37 season when only 9.0″ fell. Second place was the dreadful 2011-12 winter, when the city recorded 9.3″. In third place is the 2023-24 winter, where we currently stand, and most likely will remain at 9.8″ of snow. The difference between the three years is so minor, you might as well say it was similar to the least snowiest winter on record.

Two massive late season storms brought close to 4ft of snow to ski country in late March & early April. It was a solid ending to an otherwise miserable ski season than began so promising back last November. For us here in the Boston area, the winter pattern arrived too little too late. There just wasn’t enough cold air to generate snowfall inside of I95 from Boston points south and east. Overall, I liked my ideas for my winter forecast. However when push came to shove, it just didn’t want to snow in Boston this winter, nor for any other major city in the lower 48. Only Anchorage, Alaska recorded above normal snowfall this winter! In my next post I will grade the winter forecast and try to explain what and why this happened. A little hint is has something to do with the record warm ocean temperatures being felt across the earth. Until this changes, I’m afraid winters along the coast are going to be hard to come by.

Time is once again short today. I wanted to focus a bit on the upcoming eclipse and the pattern for April. It seemed so long ago. Our last solar eclipse was back in August of 2017. The weather in Boston was not ideal that day, with considerable cloudiness. Though I do recall watching the eclipse with a friend at Millennium Park and catching a fascinating glimpse of the eclipse through the clouds. Due to the cloud cover, it was possible to look at the disk of the sun without any protective glasses. I would not recommend doing that today! You must have the special eclipse eye wear to view the eclipse! That eclipse featured 63% blockage of the sun here in Boston. While that sounds like a lot, it really isn’t in terms of seeing it turn dark. Perhaps it turned slightly less bright that day, but if you blinked you would of never known it occurred.

Solar Eclipse 2024 is different! If you want to see a dramatic event unfold, you really have to be where totality occurs. In New England, you have to be up in the Burlington, Vt region, northern New Hampshire, extending into northern Maine, in the Houlton, Caribou region. In Burlington, Vt. totality will occur at 3:27 pm. At this time for a few minute, the moon will completely obscure the sun, only leaving a corona of light, or ring of light from the sun glowing around the moon. Sky will turn dark, planets will be seen, birds will stop signing and an eerily silence will cast across the landscape. I have never experienced this first hand, but from what people who have seen it are saying, it’s something that you’ll never forget!

Down here in Boston, the effect will not be nearly as dramatic. However, this year Boston will see close to 93% coverage. Again, this sounds like a lot, and it is much more than back in 2017, but the difference is night & day, Literally! Here in Boston, total partial eclipse maxes out at 3:30 pm! At this time, the sky will darken somewhat, almost like a dark cloud is passing across the sun. This will last for approximately 5 minutes, until the shadow from the moon begins to pass by. You should not look at the sun directly during this process!! Please where the protective eclipse glasses if you have them. If you don’t, you can make a box and poke a hole through one side, place foil on the other side and look at the sun through the hole as the the shadow of the moon passes the sun. You will be able to see the reflection of the sun on the aluminum foil. If you miss this eclipse, the next total eclipse of the sun in our area will occur on May 1st, 2079! During this eclipse, totality will run right along the I95 corridor right through Boston! Anything is possible, but best chances to see it would be people who are less than 30 years old. Enjoy!

April began on a wet & stormy note! As mentioned above a massive nor’easter brought a windswept rain storm mixed with sleet in Boston. However, as you traveled north and west of Boston, snow was more involved. In fact, most of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont received between 1 and 2 ft of heavy wet snow! The exception was along the immediate shore where ocean influenced less snowfall, but was a mess just the same. I don’t see any ending with our wet pattern here in New England. On a more optimistic note, it appears warmer weather will be more of the rule than the exception moving forward. This will get green up going here in southern New England. As a general rule of thumb, the grass will become totally green by April 10th. Mowing could commence shortly thereafter, but most areas mowing season begins on May 1st. Trees will begin to bud beginning after April 15th, and begin to leaf by the end of April . Leaves are typically completely bloomed by May 1th in the Boston area. Gardening can begin, but be aware frost can still occur especially outside of Rt 128 until May 1oth, sometimes later. Overall, I’m expecting periods of wet weather to continue through much of April. After a chilly start, it should warm up enough to see another above normal month in Boston after we average it all out. This does not mean we can’t have any chilly days. This can still occur straight on through May around here.

Here’s your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Not bad today and tomorrow, it goes downhill thereafter,

Expect mainly sunny skies today and pleasantly warmer temperatures. It will feel like Florida compared to the bone chilling winds and cloudy weather we experienced the past few days! However, be on the look out for some high clouds entering the picture later this afternoon. Will these clouds obscure the eclipse to ruin it? They look on the thin side, so I wouldn’t be too worried about them. however, these things are out of our control. It only takes a thicker cloud at the wrong moment to ruin a celestial event. Let’s hope for the best! As mentioned earlier, temperatures will be quite pleasant, with highs between 60 and 65 across the region. A little cooler if you’re up north.

Clouds will tend to linger overnight. It should not be as chilly, with lows mainly in the 30’s and 40’s.

Clouds should tend to diminish on Tuesday, yielding more sunshine. Temperatures will be seasonable, mainly in the 50’s and 60’s, with perhaps a light sea breeze along the coast. It should be fine if you’re planning on going to the Red Sox home opener.

A warm front will be approaching the region on Wednesday. This will bring increasing clouds and the chance of showers. It will remain on the mild side, but with the lack of sun, it will feel more damp.

A strong cold front will be approaching New England on Thursday into early Friday. This will bring strong southerly winds, and heavy rainfall to parts of the region. Right now, I’m expecting between 1 and 3″ of rain. In addition, strong winds will introduce the risk of some scattered power outages and coastal flooding in vulnerable areas especially along the south coast.

Areas of rain and wind may continue into Friday. As the front crosses the region, expect improving conditions by late in the day. Overall, it still looks like an unsettled day.

Real improvement will arrive in time for this weekend. Expect brisk conditions, and cooler temperatures. I’m not expecting cold temperatures, just cooler. This means temperatures mainly in the 50’s during the day, and 30’s at night. With the wind, it may feel cooler than that. However, the strong April sun may offset that and make it feel warmer. It’s a funny time of year, weather-wise.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next blog is scheduled for April 22nd. However, time constraints and other commitments may delay this. I appreciate everyone’s patience! Believe me, if a severe storm threatens, I will update everyone. I keep a very close eye on storm systems. I have yet to see a severe storm to threaten us here in Boston this winter and early spring. The one last week in early April was oh so close! When I write my next post, I will update everyone on the spring timetable, take a peak into May, and possibly an early look at our upcoming summer patterns. In the meantime, if you enjoy celestial events, today is your day! Enjoy!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Early Spring…Or False Spring?? 2/26/24

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a pleasant weekend region wide for any outdoor winter activities. Saturday was cold, but only seasonably so. After a cold start, Sunday featured less wind with temperatures a good 10 degrees milder during the afternoon. Whether you hit the slopes, took a drive along the countryside or just a walk in the park, it was a nice weekend to enjoy the outdoors!

As we count down the days to the end of meteorological winter, we are faced with the reality of yet another dud winter. The long anticipated pattern change to winter never materialized. This is the second such winter in a row, and 6 out of the last 9 with below average snowfall. Whether it’s climate change or low snow cycle, it’s been a very disappointing stretch for winter enthusiasts and for those who depend on snow for business.

Now that winter is almost over, we can see what happened. The problem is, back in November when making the winter forecast, the analogs and teleconnections were stronger, showing a change to wintry pattern beginning after the new year. As time moved along, these signals faded, leaving many wondering what happened. In the end, it didn’t matter whether it was La Nina or El Nino, the results were the same.

At this point, I don’t think it really matters. I have seen snowy winters with El Nino’s and La Nina’s. One warning signal for this winter was the strength of the El Nino. Boston has never had above normal snowfall during a strong El Nino. This El Nino was one of the strongest on record. Just as a reminder, my winter forecast did not call for above average snow. I did mention the possibility that if the El Nino weakened quickly enough, there was a chance snowfall could spike to above average. For the most part, I kept it consistent calling for near average snowfall in Boston this winter, which is generally between 40 and 50″. I also kept the door open that if certain parameters did not come together, we could be looking at a lackluster winter.

But the final call was the final call. I projected for between 40 and 50″ of snow, and it was way off. So much so that this could go down as the third least snowiest winter in Boston. Believe it or not, we’re running behind last years measly total of 12.1″. So far, Boston has only received a total of 9.7″ of snow! The least snowiest winter on record was way back in 1936-37 when only 9″ fell, which was followed by the blow torch winter of 2011-12 when the city only measured 9.3″. There are other low snowfall records either falling or about to fall. Boston has not received a snowfall greater than 4″ in close to 730 days running. Boston has also never gone in recorded history back to back years with less than 20″ seasonal snowfall. Something to place in the back of your mind moving forward.

For what it’s worth, I do not blame this on climate change. I believe we go through periodic cycles of boom years and bust years. This also does not mean I do not believe in climate change. The climate is most definitely changing. The climate is warmer now in New England than it was 50 years ago. However, that doesn’t mean it still can’t snow. I was chatting with my sister Pam the other night and mentioned to her how people have short memories when it comes to weather.

Back in the 1980’s Boston went through a terrible low snow cycle. From the years 1978-79 winter through 1991-92 winter, I believe that’s 14 years, Boston observed only two above average seasons, two close to average, and ten below to well below average season snowfall. That’s a snow drought! It all ended in the 1992-93 winter, when a string of severe winters hit with three out of four featuring well above average snowfall. It’s been on and off since then, leading up to the historic 2014-15 winter, when Boston received the most snowfall in recorded history in a little over a months time. If we are in a similar cycle of the 80’s, we would have approximately 5 more years to go with generally below average snow seasons. However this is speculation. Such cycles can begin and end without much warning.

With the low snow seasons, temperatures have been surging. A big difference from the 1980’s snow drought to today’s is that it was colder back then. So when it wasn’t snowing, it still was wintry cold. People could still enjoy pond hockey or makeshift backyard ice skating rinks as it was cold enough to sustain the ice. Over the past 10 or 15 years, especially the past 5, temperatures have been breaking records each consecutive year. There has been a lot of moisture past couple winters, it’s just that it’s been so warm, especially within 30 miles of the coast a lot of these storms fall as rain. Whether this is climate change induced by human industrialization or natural cycles is yet to be determined in my opinion. Whichever it is, it’s happening, and happening at an alarming rate. Some say it’s the ever increasing ocean temperatures. Judging by the amount of rainstorms compared to snowstorms in Boston over the past few winters, I would tend to agree with this theory.

Ocean temperatures may be at an all time high this upcoming summer. That in combined with a incoming La Nina may set the stage for what experts are calling a hurricane season from hell this summer and fall. Until the ocean temperatures cool off, we will continue seeing shorter, milder winters with more rain. When and if this ever happens is the big question. Experts have theories, but nobody has any solid answers. One thing experts have been able to show, is that ocean temperatures do evolve in 30 to 40 year cycles. You would think it takes years for ocean temperatures to change. However, as I mentioned to my sister, it can happen within one year! It is interesting to note ocean temperatures changed to warm back in 1990, just when temperatures began to rise globally. We are currently 34 years into the warm cycle. It will be interesting to see if oceans dramatically cool over the next several years, and what ramifications that would have on our sensible climate.

On another note, it’s not like it hasn’t been snowing anywhere this winter! Yes, overall it’s a low snow year across the United States. Many cities including Boston are running well below average seasonal snowfall. However, the western third of the nation has seen colder temperatures this winter along with plenty of snowfall. Not record amounts like last year, but good snows nonetheless. California, which had a very slow start to the season. has made up snowfall and precipitation deficits in a big way since the new year. In fact, more cold storms are lined up ready to barrel into the west coast and Rocky Mountain region with significant late season snows. Another region that has seen near record snowfall this winter is coastal Alaska and the city of Anchorage. With two months left to the snow season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they surpass their all time snow record of 134″. I believe they already have close to 120″ for the season. This was a big surprise in the weather community, as strong El Nino’s typically bring warm and wet winters to coastal Alaska.

In contrast, while a huge trough of low pressure sets up out west (cold & stormy) a huge ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) will be building across the east, including here in New England. The first 1o days of March look to be unseasonably warm around here, with high temperatures surging into the 50’s and 60’s. This undoubtedly will set off a case of spring fever across the region. Already, local meteorologists and even some snow enthusiasts have canceled winter and we’re fully onto “spring mode.” Some even mentioned we’re done with snow back on February 22nd!

Now, could this all happen? It’s entirely possible that this is may be one of those years when we don’t have a winter and we slide right into an early spring and it stays. I remember this happened back in 2012. Winter 2011-12 was similar to this winter. Very little snow,  2nd least on record in fact, and warm temperatures. In fact, when March arrived the weather patterns turned excessively warm. Does anybody remember going to the beach on St. Patrick’s Day that year? Yes, we had a whole week with temperatures in the mid 80’s during the middle of March! Whatever winter we had transitioned right to summer! I’m not forecasting this to happen, but I would say anything and everything is currently on the table.

For me, I’m very skeptical. I have lived in New England my entire life and have seen strange things happen as we approach spring. We’re still early in the season. I’m not saying the winter forecast is still attainable. I believe that ship has sailed for another day. However, computer models are still indicating one more stratospheric warming event to take place around mid March. This would mean Greenland blocking may develop and send colder temperatures back into the eastern third of the United States including us here in New England. Could this be the one that does us in? We have waited all winter for this pattern to arrive, it wouldn’t shock me if we revert back to a wintry type of pattern the second half of March into the start of April. This type of pattern would fall in line with a weakening El Nino.

Whatever forces that were holding the winter pattern back during winter, finally weaken. This allows the trough of low pressure and colder air to finally arrive along the east coast. If this does indeed occur, this would set up a false spring alert here in New England for the first 10 days of March. Nothing is guaranteed, but I believe there still is a chance of a late season snowstorm, especially for us here in New England including Boston. I have mentioned this before, it’s pay me now or pay me later. Eventually, winter will want to get one shot in before it leaves for another year. We would want this to come sometime in March or early April, rather in May or June. Sometimes, like last year, the winter pattern arrives in May or June, and can persist and really foul up the summer patterns. For fans of summer weather, you do not want that scenario to happen!

Now for your weekly ski and snowboard report. It’s early yet. There can be plenty left to the ski season in New England. After the Christmas meltdown, conditions have been fairly stable across ski country this year. We haven’t had as much natural snow as we would like, but temperatures have been cold enough for the snow guns to operate to make artificial snow. I am concerned for the first 10 days of March. Some resorts may take a big hit with melting snow and some rain. However, this time of the year, the warm weather is typically overly predicted by the models. There most always is a sneaky back door cold front to keep things in check up north. Yes, there will be melting and warm air, but the hope is it’s not continuous for days on end. After March 10th, I believe the pattern will break down for more wintry conditions heading into April. No major storms this week. However, there may be a burst of snow in the mountains Wednesday night as a strong cold front moves through. Thereafter, expect very cold conditions on Thursday, then a moderation trend as we head into this upcoming weekend. I will give this week a 7 out of 10 for conditions up north.

Time for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will give this week an 8 out of 10. Expect mainly sunny skies and indeed a touch of spring this afternoon! Temperatures are in the mid to upper 50’s across the area. It should be a great evening for a walk in the neighborhood or local park.

Expect mild conditions to continue with fair skies overnight. Lows should drop into the 20’s and 30’s across the area. Warmest along the coast and urban areas, coldest inland rural areas.

A mild southerly flow on Tuesday will bring cloudiness but generally dry weather. Temperatures should remain mainly in the 50’s. However, if we happen to break out into any sunshine, temperatures could warm up into the 60’s.

As strong storm and associated clod front will be approaching New England beginning Tuesday night. Winds will increase along with the chance of some showers. I’m not expecting any washout, but there could be some passing showers if your out and about. Temperatures will be mild, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

As the storm tracks to our west, this will place New England on the warm sector of the storm. Expect stormy conditions Wednesday with strong south to southeasterly winds. Most winds will be between 30 and 40 mph, however there could be some gusts up to between 50 and 60 mph, especially along the coast line and higher terrain locations. In addition, there will be some periods of rain passing through from time to time. However, the main focus with this storm will be the strong winds associated with the cold front as it barrels through New England.

Wednesday night will see a continuation of the stormy weather. In fact, it could become a bit stormier as the cold front approaches and passes through the region. Expect strong winds of between 40 and 60 mph across the region. A squall like line of rain will be crossing New England during the overnight. As the front passes through, winds will abruptly shift to westerly. This will usher in much colder temperatures and perhaps change the rain to a period of snow. There may be enough moisture left so higher terrain locations of the Berkshires and Worcester County could see one to two inches of snow with some slippery travel. Elsewhere, the dry air will simply sweep in too quickly for any accumulations. There may be a crusty coating on cars when you wake up to go to work on Thursday around the Boston area, especially west of I95.

Watch for a sunny but windy day for the last day of meteorological winter on Thursday. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be hard pressed to get out of the 30’s. The wind will make it feel colder! Expect clear and cold weather Thursday night, though winds will subside.

Look for moderating temperatures for the first day of meteorological spring! With lighter winds and temperatures warming to the mid 40’s, it will feel much more comfortable outdoors.

As of this moment, the weekend is looking a bit iffy at this point. Some computer models are trying to bring a weak coastal storm up the coast to dampen our weekend weather. This would be all rain, as it will be much too warm to support any snow. However, there are other computer models keeping us mainly dry. If I would to make a call from now, I would lean mostly dry. However, I would check local forecasts later in the week in case you have any outdoor plans. Regardless, it does not look like anything serious, and temperatures look to remain on the mild side, mainly in the lower to mid 50’s.

Thereafter, I am expecting mild to warm temperatures to continue much of the first 10 days of March. Along with the warm temperatures, there could be some inclement weather at times. There is talk of gardening beginning across the area with the expected warm weather. It’s way way too early to begin any plantings. It’s still officially winter after all, and cold weather and most likely snow will return sometime before spring. Last year we had suburban frost well into May. If you feel the need to begin garden clean up, by all means move forward. Spring officially be here in a few weeks.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post is scheduled for Monday March 11th, unless severe weather or major storm threatens. Vice versa if no severe weather threatens and my time is limited, it may have to wait until the following week. Regardless, whatever is happening with the weather, you can bet I’m keeping a close eye on it! In my next post, I will be discussing whether the relapse to winter is going to happen, or spring is here to stay! I will also have a recap of February and preview what March typically offers us. In the meantime, if we’re not going to have anymore winter…I say bring on spring!!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy Birthday to my niece Nicole!!! (Feb 22nd)

Uncertainty Lies Ahead…2/5/24

Hello! Happy February! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After 11 straight cloudy days, the sun made a glorious appearance on Saturday, and continued into Sunday! With the ever so slight increase in sun angle, it actually felt quite pleasant outdoors yesterday, with high temperatures around 40 degrees. Overall, it was a wonderful weekend to enjoy outdoor winter activities. Unfortunately, there is little to no snow cover down here in southern New England to enjoy. However, it’s a different story up north, especially the ski resorts. Many places received some natural snow last week, and along with the colder temperatures, they have been able to make tons of snow! I will have more details in my ski report and forecast shortly.

So I saw Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow a few days ago on Groundhog Day. I guess that means an early spring…correct? Well, not so fast! Last year the critter claimed 6 more weeks of winter. As we all know, winter was over before it started last year! Too bad Phil’s accuracy only stands at 30%! Yikes! You have a better chance at being correct throwing darts blindfolded! It’s all in good fun! I would love to head down to Pennsylvania one day to attend the festivities! Who knows…maybe Phil is on to something this year?

In many ways, I don’t blame Phil calling for an early spring. For sure, he’s on the right path. Contrary to what my winter forecast called for, this has been one of the most benign, uneventful, boring winters I can ever recall. Even last winter featured more storms and activity than this year. Yes, I realize we’ve had many storms this winter. However, most of them have been warm rainstorms, with sloppy mixes to start or finish. So far, Logan Airport has only received a little over 9″ of snow to show for it. This is less than last year at this point and some 2 ft below where we should be at this time of the year. I called for a slow start to winter, but this is getting ridiculous!

It’s not just Boston. The entire nation as a whole is seeing less wintry events this year. It started off very slow and that theme has continued. This is not to say there hasn’t been pockets of good snowfall. Some areas in upstate New York received large amounts of lake effect snows in December and January…but that’s expected. Just this past weekend and happening right now the Sierra Mountain range in California is getting crushed by a El Nino fueled storm, with many mountain tops receiving 5 to 8 ft of snow, along with winds gusting up to 160 mph! While this is an intense storm, Sierra’s are running below normal for snowfall this winter. This is not a big surprise, as last winter some locations received close to 800″ of snow! That was a historic record winter for them. It can’t be a boon season every year! With the strong El Nino this year, I’m surprised it took this long for a strong storm to hit California.

Of course the other part of the storm is the flooding rains occurring. A fire hose of torrential rains pointed towards southern California today is soaking coastal regions with up to 10″ of rain, and in some cases much more than that in the hilly terrain! This is leading to mudslides, creeks and rivers flooding and life threatening situations in that region. This storm is expected to continue in some capacity through Wednesday.

Shifting locations, a massive winter storm / blizzard absolutely crushed the eastern half of Nova Scotia this past weekend, specifically Cape Breton Island and Sydney locations. This storm, which began on Friday, actually stalled and intensified just south of this region, pinwheeling intense bands of snow off of the Atlantic Ocean back towards the coast. This brought several days of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions to these locations, essentially burying them with up to 5 ft of snow and drifts nearly double that! It was still snowing last time I checked and may continue to do so into tomorrow!

This storm is so massive, the outer edge of the cloud shield and even possible snow showers is projected to retrograde and pivot in off of the Atlantic Ocean and effect some South Shore communities and Cape Cod later tonight and into the day tomorrow. This will not be a big storm by any stretch, however some communities may pick up a coating to an inch of snow with maybe some slippery roads developing during the overnight hours. Boston may also see some flurries from time to time.

I had a good chat with a Twitter weather friend Scott Dunlop last evening on whether New England could ever experience such a storm? The short answer to the question is, yes! In fact, we have seen similar storms in the past. Perhaps not to the degree Nova Scotia experienced, but similar nonetheless. The two storms I recalled was the Blizzard of ’78 and the 100 hour storm of late February 1969. These two storms buried eastern New England with between 2 and 4 ft of snow. In the 1969, storm the White Mountains of New Hampshire received a whopping 96″ of snow! Records are made to be broken. Some day, a massive nor’easter is going to stall somewhere off the New England coast and bring a record breaking snowfall to the region!

With all this being said, what I am I expecting for the rest of our winter? Remember my winter title? “Winter 2023-24…Slow Start;Strong Finish!” After a tranquil start to February, there remains many uncertainties in our weather patterns as we head towards March and beyond. In my opinion, the worst of winter still lies ahead of us. My winter forecast called for between 40 and 50″ of snow in Boston this winter. As I mentioned above we only have received approximately 9″ so far this season. Indeed, it would need to be a frantic finish to end up with this amount of snow I’m predicting in Boston.

How do we arrive there? Beginning next week, the winter pattern is going to shift. A Greenland block is going to develop. In fact, high pressure is going to build across much of Canada and Alaska. When this occurs, the jet stream buckles and is forced south into the mid latitudes. This allows colder air from Canada to settle down into New England and mid Atlantic region. While this is happening, an active sub tropical jet stream will continue streaming moisture across the southern regions of the U.S. Some of these storms may slip south of New England and head out to sea. However, there are some indications the northern jet stream may phase with the southern jet stream and develop a storm along the eastern seaboard. If this occurs, I’m expecting the possibility of a blockbuster blizzard to develop and sock the I95 corridor from D.C. to Boston. If this were to come to fruition, watch the time frame between February 20th to March 15th. It’s complicated, and many parameters need to fall into place. However, if you do the research, and study past El Nino seasons such as this one, many had at least one blockbuster storm in February or early March.

In addition, atmospheric scientist Dr Judah Cohen is monitoring the possibility of a polar vortex disruption or maybe even a collapse to the vortex. This has a lot to do with high pressure building across the pole region, which can disrupt and or even split the vortex. When this happens, it can result in a 4 to 6 week period of severe winter weather conditions. If it’s just a disruption, the vortex can stretch and elongate, resulting in the possibility of wintry conditions for a shorter period of time. Eventually, the vortex recovers with a rebound to milder temperatures. This is a big wildcard moving forward. If there is a major disruption or a split around the middle of February, there still could be a period of severe winter weather conditions from February 20th through March 15th. If it does not happen, we still may see a turn to colder and snowier weather, just nothing too severe. At the very least, it looks like we will be going into a much colder weather pattern from mid February onward. Whether the snow comes or not is still subject to interpretation. I believe it will. If it doesn’t, pond hockey and back yard ice skating rinks will be in high demand!

What I’m concerned about is if nothing happens, and we only experience weather similar to what we have been seeing so far this winter. Eventually the rubber band is going to snap. For those who enjoy spring and summer weather, it’s better for this pattern to snap now, and get the storminess out of the way. If it happens sometimes in March, it could essentially ruin spring and early summer. Believe me, it happened last year at the start of June, and we all know how last summer worked out!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to briefly talk about weather history. The period of February 4th to the 14th is known as prime time here in Boston. This is when the climate is most conducive to produce a major snowstorm here in Boston. This is when the ocean temperatures cool off enough, and cold is at its strongest. Back on this date 46 years ago, Boston was preparing for one of its worst blizzards in history. The Blizzard of ’78 hit on February 6th and continued unabated through the 7th bringing snowfall rates of 2 to 4″ per hour, hurricane force wind gusts, and devastating coastal flooding. When the storm finally diminished, the Boston area was buried with between 2 and 4 ft of snow, many communities received were between 3 and 4 ft with drifts up to 12 ft high! There have been many storms since the blizzard. Some have come close, but to this date none have been able to match the fury of the Great Blizzard of ’78! Possibly a once in a lifetime storm!

After rough December, Ski and snow mobile conditions have settled down up north. They’re still having issues in parts of New Hampshire with lakes not freezing enough. Further north into Maine things are better in that regard. Ski resorts have received some natural snow in the past couple weeks. Temperatures have been colder, and we avoided the major thaw in most cases, so resorts have been able to make plenty of snow. Overall, it’s been a variable ski season. November started out strong, big meltdown in December, stabilized in January with decent snow. After a brief weekend thaw, temperatures look to turn colder than normal beginning next week and possibly remain cold for the remainder of February. I’m sure there’s going to be some natural snow. How much is still a question mark. It doesn’t look like much for this week, or next week for that matter. It may be the cold is so strong it suppresses the moisture to your south. It’s possible your best snows arrive in March this year. Spring skiing??

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I would rate this week a 8 out of 10. Not bad for mid winter! More good news! For those who enjoy more daylight and look towards spring, we have arrived at the first passage today. Today marks the end of solar winter and the beginning of solar spring. This means we have left the darkest period of the year and have entered the period when we gain the most daylight. In addition, we will be turning the clocks ahead on March 10th, making the days even longer.

Expect increasing clouds this evening. As winds freshen from the northeast, there may be some snow showers and flurries coming in form off of the ocean late tonight across South Shore communities and Cape Cod. Some locations may receive a dusting of snow. It will be cold with lows mainly in the 20’s.

Expect northeast winds and mostly cloudy skies across eastern Massachusetts tomorrow. Once again, there may be some snow showers around, mainly across southeastern Mass. There could even be a few spot flurries around Boston tomorrow. It will be chilly with highs mainly in the mid 30’s. The weather will be markedly different west of I95, with bright sunshine and chilly temperatures.

Clouds may linger into tomorrow night along coastal sections, with clear skies inland. Lows will be in the 20’s and 30’s, warmest along the coast.

As the storm loosens its grip, winds will relax along the coast and skies will partially clear on Wednesday. Temperatures should respond and warm up into the 40’s and lower 50’s.

For the period of Thursday through Sunday, expect warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions for Thursday and Friday. Weak disturbances may swing through over the weekend which may produce a chance of light rain showers. If we see any sustained sunshine, temperatures could make a run at 60! Otherwise look for widespread temperatures in the 50’s. You could call this a false spring alert! Don’t be fooled! Colder weather will begin moving back into New England next week and beyond!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next blog is dependent on time. If time allows, I will write my next post on February 19th. Regardless, if wintry weather or any severe weather threatens, I will be sure to update everyone. In my next post, I will be discussing where we stand in the evolution of this wintry pattern. I’ll also discuss the prospects of any major storms we should be aware of. I will also have a new ski and snow mobile forecast. In the meantime, the only certain thing about the future is it’s uncertainty!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete