Active Pattern Continues….2/16/26

Hello! Happy Presidents Day Holiday! Today I bring some good news! A storm system once projected to hit the Boston area with another major snowfall today…is a miss! You may have noticed the mostly cloudy skies today and light onshore winds. Had this storm tracked 150 miles closer, we would have been talking about another major snowstorm! Overall, this past weekend wasn’t too bad for this time of the year. Saturday turned out mainly cloudy, with chilly temperatures. Sunday was a pleasant mid-winters day, with mainly sunny skies along with some increasing afternoon high clouds. Temperatures were on the chilly side, but balmy compared to what it’s been.

We have a lot to discuss, with not too much time to do it in!

Well, my last official blog post was my winter update way back on December 22nd! Due to the active winter, I have posted several updates on my Facebook account. I hope everyone was able to read them! Indeed, it’s been quite a winter, so far! According to records, it has been the coldest winter in Boston in 23 years! This has led to wild photos of Boston Harbor freezing over, and many pictures from Cape Cod showing bays and harbors freezing over down there too! These led to surreal images with our region looking more like Antarctica or the North Pole! Video were seen of coyotes running across the Charles River and even onto Boston Harbor! Ice breaker boats were needed to break up the ice for ferries and cargo ships to pass through.

In addition to the cold, we have received plenty of snow too! The storm on January 25th-26th was doozy! Most areas around the Boston area received between 20 and 24″ of powder! Logan Airport cracked the top 10 all-time greatest snowfalls coming in with a whopping 23.2″ of snow from the storm! The city struggled with clean-up and snow removal, as bitterly cold temperatures persisted for a couple of weeks after the storm, with virtually no melting.

Even people who dislike snow, you have to admit we were way overdue for a good storm! Technically, the last major storm in Boston was way back in January of 2022! We’re not Buffalo, N.Y. here, but we do get our share of snow & cold in a typical winter! Certainly, more than cities to our south. On average, the Boston area receives about 50″ of snow annually. This does not fall evenly every year! Case in point, the last four years the city struggled to receive half the normal snow, and two of those years not even a 1/4 fell! This led to a large deficit in our snowfall departure. When people asked me if it was ever going to snow again, I told them, it’s not a matter of if, it’s when!

For those tired of the cold & snow, I have some good news to share! Meteorological winter ends on February 28th! Meteorological spring begins on March 1st! Of course, living in New England, we all know winter can linger well into March and sometimes even April! On rare occasions even May! For the record, the first day of astronomical spring arrives on March 20th at 10:46 AM. I believe we have passed the most brutal part of winter. From here on out, the days are getting longer, and the sun angle and strength will be increasing on a daily basis. The light is at the end of the tunnel!

That’s the good news. The bad news is that we’re not completely out of the woods just yet! So far, Boston has received 41.5″ of snow. If winter were to end right now, my initial forecast of between 40 and 50″ would have worked out pretty nicely. If you read my forecast carefully, you would have noticed I also added a most severe case of up to 65″ possible this winter. From what I’m seeing on the weather charts, I would not be surprised if we reached the more extreme level, if not surpass it here in Boston this winter! It’s just one of those winters that it wants to snow! You could say it’s a bit of a payback for the lack of snow we’ve received over the last 10 years or so. One thing we have to keep in mind, everything balances out with Mother Nature. Things go in cycles, patterns, precipitation and snowfall. If it makes you feel any better, some places in the Sierra Mountain range in California will be receiving up to 15 ft of snow…only in the next two weeks!

It’s that energy crashing into California, which will be traversing the country and ending up close to New England coast over the next two weeks or so. Normally, systems crashing into California bring milder temperatures and rain to Boston. This winter is different. High latitude blocking will deflect these systems from tracking up into Canada. Instead, these storms will end up passing south of New England. keeping us mainly on the colder side of the storms.

The active pattern kicks off on Wednesday. A large warm front will be stretching from Ontario, Canada southeastward to Connecticut to south of Cape Cod. To the south of this warm front, temperatures will be warm, perhaps even spring-like! To the north, it will be cold and raw. Where this front eventually sets up, will determine what type of precipitation falls. Right now, areas either side of the Mass Pike extending up into southern Vermont and New Hampshire stand the best chance at seeing mainly snow later Wednesday and into Thursday morning. These locations may see 2 to 4″ of snow if not 3 to 6″, including Boston. Further south, temperatures look to be borderline for plain snow. However, low level cold may be stubborn to erode, therefore we could see a mixture of sleet, snow in these areas. This is not going to be a major storm but will bring slippery travel conditions across the region. Plows will need to be deployed.

The next event arrives Later Friday into Saturday. This storm is associated with a fast cross-country flow separating cold air to the north and warm air to our south. Once again, depending on where this boundary sets up, will depend on whether we see snow or an icy mix. It’s too early to tell at this point. Computer models are all over the place with the track of this wave and placement of frozen precipitation or snow. I will try and pin this down in my forecast. I would lean colder with additional snowfall at this point in time.

The third storm of interest will arrive in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The big question here is will there be a storm, or no storm? At this moment, several computer models are showing a storm, but a couple of them just have it being cold & dry. We’ll have to monitor this one closely. After the wave goes by on Saturday, colder air will flow back into New England from southern Canada. The computer models that are showing the storm are showing a significant Nor’easter type of storm slowing tracking south of New England. With the way this winter has been going, this is absolutely something that needs to be monitored closely. I will be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant!

Now time for your weekly ski report. It’s been another banner year for New England ski resorts! Even the Great Blue Hill in Milton is having a great year! Persistent cold and frequent snowfalls have brought ideal ski conditions to most resorts. Expect wintry conditions for school vacation week! Snow showers will traverse ski country tomorrow, bringing a couple of fresh inches of snow. Another wintry system will bring more snow especially to southern resorts on Wednesday, then again later Friday into early Saturday. A more widespread storm could threaten the region later Sunday into Monday.

Here’s your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. Expect unsettled weather at times this week, with rapidly changing road conditions.

Watch for mainly cloudy skies for tonight, with low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 20’s.

Expect another mainly cloudy day tomorrow as a very weak system will be crossing the region. There won’t be a lot of precipitation with this, but you may see some spotty snow showers from time to time, especially during the afternoon. As I mentioned above, snow will be somewhat steadier up north, where an inch or two could accumulate. Temperatures will be mainly in the 30’s to near 40.

Skies may partially clear tomorrow night, which may allow temperatures to drop into the upper teens and low 20’s. Still quite chilly.

Any morning sun will give way to increasing and thickening clouds on Wednesday. A rather thin ribbon of snow will be advancing across central and southern New England during the day. New data is showing a somewhat colder solution for the Boston area. Precipitation may begin as a bit of mix but will likely turn to snow during the afternoon. Watch for snowy conditions further inland across much of the state. Light snow may persist into the overnight and slowly diminish during the early morning hours of Thursday. Right now, I’m thinking 2 to 4″ of snow in the Boston, but possibly as much as 3 to 6″ between Rt 128 and I495. Beyond 495 towards the western part of the state, some locations may see 4 to 7″ of snow. Expect slow travel for your Wednesday evening commute.

After this storm clears, the rest of Thursday we should finally see some breaks of sunshine through the clouds. Temperatures will not be that cold behind the system, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30’s.

Hot on the heels of that storm, another storm will approach New England later Friday and into Saturday. This too would like to track west of the region but will be forced to track south of New England due to the Greenland block, keeping many of us in the cold sector of the storm. At this moment, this does not look like it will be a major storm. However, we have to watch this one carefully, as some models are showing rapid intensification as it slowly moves out to sea. Expect snow or mixed precipitation to approach the region later Friday. Any mixed precipitation should change over to snow Friday night and end early Saturday morning. Some computer data is intensifying this storm as it heads out to sea slowly on Saturday. This could prolong light snowfall especially along the coast Saturday. Something to monitor. This storm could bring several more inches to the area.

If that wasn’t enough, another storm could threaten the region later Sunday into Monday. If this storm materializes, it could pack a punch. However, this is still day 6 and 7, and computer models do not have a good handle on this from this time frame. If this is still a threat by the end of the week, I will be sure to update everyone! Let’s take them one at a time! After the potential third storm, the pattern looks to relax for a time heading into the end of February.

I may not get another chance to post on my blog the rest of February. If a storm threatens, I will update everyone on Facebook. March is looking like a continuation of the present winter to me. I’m expecting more snow, perhaps a good amount of it, and generally colder than average temperatures. Once again, it hasn’t snowed in March for several years now in Boston…we’re over-due. For what it’s worth, it does not look like an early spring to me at this time. When I post next, I will hopefully be talking about our spring timetable and warmer times ahead! In the meantime, sometimes we have to endure some hardship before enjoying pleasure. Just think of how glorious spring is going to be when it finally arrives!

~Happy Birthday to my niece, Coco! ~ Feb 22nd ~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Wintry Scenario! 12/22/25

Hello, friends! Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays to all! Welcome to the first official full day of winter! Since we last spoke, the weather has been decidedly colder since about Thanksgiving. There hasn’t been too much snow to show for it, but that may change soon! Our recent weekend was rather tranquil. After a stormy and warm Friday, Saturday was sharply colder under mainly fair skies. As winds turned southwest, Sunday turned a bit milder, until a cold front passed through later in the day with colder weather moving back in!

Time is limited today, but I wanted to update everyone on our latest weather trends for this week! I also want to update my winter forecast posted back on November 24th. Let’s get right into it!

First, let’s talk about our weather for this week! For those who enjoy wintry precipitation and snow around the Christmas Holiday, I come with good news for you! As a reminder, Downtown Boston and Logan Airport typically has about a 25% chance of a white Christmas. Everyone has their own ideas on what a white Christmas should be. For some, just having some snow piles around is good enough. Others prefer a solid snow cover of at least one inch. Still others feel having snow falling on Christmas Day constitutes a white Christmas. There is no 100% correct answer here. The official definition from the National Weather Service says an official white Christmas is when there is one inch of snow on the ground at 7:00 AM Christmas morning. But what happens if that snow melts away by noontime? Or if it begins to snow later that morning or during the afternoon? All which has happened over the years here in New England. There are many combinations and outcomes for people who keep track of this.

As I mentioned, Boston has about a one in 4 chance of observing a white Christmas. However, these numbers are skewed! For instance, Boston saw a white Christmas last year. The time before that was 2017. And before that was way back in 2009. We may not have a white Christmas for several years in a row but then get two or three together. By the way, the chances increase the further north and west you live away from the coastal plain.

For instance, a location such as Newton may see a white Christmas 30% of the time, and Wayland may be as much as 40%. When you add elevation such as in Worcester County, the percentage goes even higher up to 50%. Northern New England chances are even greater, away from the ocean. Concord, New Hampshire has an approximately 60% chance. The further north you go, the greater odds. Caribou Maine has a near 90% chance! This is not always a guarantee! It’s been a rough go of it in recent years, with absurdly warm temperatures and rain washing away a lot of the snow just before Christmas! The same thing happened this past Friday. However, Mother Nature may be trying to even the score a bit this year!

Leading up to Christmas, weather patterns across the country have gone haywire! After a cold December, much of the country will be experiencing an unseasonable warm & dry Christmas this year! In fact, some locations across the Midwest could see their warmest Christmas in recorded history! Meanwhile, a large Pacific storm will be barreling onshore in much of California, bringing torrential flooding rains and several feet of snow to the Sierra Mountain range. How about here in New England? Are we going to share in the record warm temperatures this Christmas? The short answer to this question is, no!

Computer models have been all over the place regarding Christmas week weather and beyond. However, I think I have it figured out! Overall, it’s looking to be quite wintry across much of New England this week! You may say, Pete, why aren’t we going to share in the coined “torchmas” the rest of the country will be experiencing? Well, our weather is going to coming from the Canadian Maritimes, coming at us from northeast to southwest. This is due to very strong Greenland block developing just in time for Christmas. This block acts as a guard or football tackle, essentially blocking weather systems that would otherwise take tracks not conducive to wintry precipitation.

The first such system will be heading our way for tomorrow. At first glance, this system appeared to be tracking well to our north and west, like so many of its predecessors. This track typically brings a brief period of snow showers which quickly turns to rain along the coastal plain. However, with the Greenland block developing, this storm is actually going to stretch out, elongate, and eventually redevelop south of New England later tomorrow. When this happens, warm air advection gets pinched off from flooding the coastal plain, rapidly changing the snow to rain. Now, I’m not saying there won’t be any rain involved here. It’s almost like a nowcasting event coming. It’s still possible warmer air sneaks into immediate coastal communities and mixes the snow or even flips to rain for a time early tomorrow evening. However, the majority of New England, especially north and west of the I95 corridor is primarily going to see snowfall tomorrow.

And what a snowfall it will be! I would like to be clear here; this is not going to be a major snowstorm by any means! However, many communities just inland from the coast will see a Currier & Ives snowfall, with wet snowfall clinging to all the trees. Roads should be mainly just wet during the day. However, if the snow lingers into tomorrow evening, temperatures may fall to below freezing resulting in some icy conditions across much of eastern Massachusetts. Snow should gradually end by midnight. As mentioned, I’m not expecting significant amounts of snow with this system. With that being said, snow accumulations will be on the tricky side with this. Remember, there is a massive heat dome building to our southwest. This storm is going to ride the boundary between this very warm air, and the cold air building into New England. In general, I’m expecting between 1 and 2″ along the coast plain inside of I95. One inch in Downtown Boston and close to the shore, but close to 2′” as one heads out towards Rt 128.  Beyond Rt 128 I’m expecting 2 to 3″. If you live close to and beyond I495 you can expect 3 to 4″ of snow with the highest totals in higher terrain locations greater than 500 ft. This will be a wet snow, clinging to trees creating a real Winter Wonderland!

I’m expecting a similar scenario for friends up in New Hampshire, with 1 to 3″ near the seacoast, but up to 4″ inland. One thing I will be monitoring is the mid coast of Maine. Computer models are projecting an enhancement up there where 6 to 10″ is possible in locations around the Portland region. As I said, there are many moving parts, there could be some surprises if some things come together at the last second! Some computer models are actually showing a brief enhancement around the Boston area tomorrow evening, which may bring slippery travel and additional accumulating snow. It’s really difficult to pinpoint, I’m just making everyone aware of the possibility.

At this moment, it remains to be seen if there will be enough snow, or whatever snow that does fall, can make it to Christmas morning in Boston to be classified as a white Christmas. Wednesday will be mainly cloudy in the morning with chilly temperatures. Christmas Day itself looks to feature considerable clouds and on the chilly side, but not cold. I don’t see a warm surge melting whatever snow that falls away. Right now, I would give it a 50/50 shot in Boston. For towns north and west of Boston, especially west of I95 I would give it a 90% chance of a white Christmas! This includes much of New Hampshire with the freshly fallen snow!

With snowy weather arriving just after the solstice, I’m encouraged for a snowier winter this year in Boston than the last few!  Back in November, I called for more of a seasonal winter this year in Boston. At that time, I forecasted for between 40 and 50″ of snow this season in Boston. It looked bleak at times, but I do believe the snow season is going to ramp up in Boston this year! Repetitive Greenland blocking keeps developing, along with plenty of cold air to tap up in Canada. We just need the sub-tropical jet to become more active, and I believe the snow will come! Computer models have been volatile and swinging from one extreme to the other. While I do believe there’s going to be a mild break during winter, I also believe it will come back later in the winter, especially in March. Based off my natural signals I observed this past fall, I’m holding my accumulation forecast as planned, which is right around average of 50″. Please keep in mind, I also gave a wider range this winter for higher end possibilities, as the potential is there. For this year, I believe Boston has a strong potential this winter to reach the upper end accumulation of 65″ of snow. Overall, expect a more extreme wintery periods of bitter cold temperatures, punctuated by milder periods. Also expect more disruptive snowfalls with the strong risk of a major storm or two greater than 6″.  Whatever happens, I will be there to update everyone when conditions warrant!

Now for your weekly holiday outdoor activity forecast! I’m rating this week an 8 out of 10. Scaled higher if you enjoy wintery weather!

Expect mainly sunny skies for the rest of your Monday afternoon. It will remain chilly with high temperatures only near freezing!

Watch for increasing clouds overnight, with lows mainly in the 20’s.

Tuesday may start with a red sky in the east, which most always means inclement weather incoming, Watch for thickening clouds during the early morning. Snow will spread from west to east during the late morning and continue fairly steady right into the evening. Slightly warmer air may creep into Boston later in the day mixing with or even changing the snow to rain for a time. However, as the storm pulls east, rain should change back to a period of snow during the evening and slowly end towards midnight. Locations south of Boston will see brief snowfall but a greater chance it changes to rain during the afternoon with temperatures rising to the mid to upper 30’s. Be aware traveling tomorrow evening as temperatures may fall back close to freezing. This may create icy roads and black ice.

Expect mostly tranquil weather conditions for your Christmas Eve. However, there may be some early morning snow showers along the immediate coast heading down towards Cape Cod. Otherwise, expect skies to partially clear during the afternoon, with high temperatures in the mid 30’s. Dry weather is expected Christmas Eve with low temperatures mainly in the 20’s.

Christmas Day will feature mainly tranquil conditions across the New England region. I’m not expecting a lot of sun, as there will be many clouds around. A weak disturbance may bring some communities a few brief rain or snow showers, but I’m not expecting any travel disruptions or hazardous road conditions. There is a chance of snow showers across northern New England, mainly festive flakes if anything else. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs a couple of degrees either side of 40. A bit colder up in northern New England closer to an arctic boundary.

There is the potential for yet another storm system the day after Christmas. Once again, there will be quite a thermal clash of temperatures setting up close to, or just south of New England. Another disturbance, similar to the one tomorrow, but perhaps slightly stronger, will be tracking from west to east and will most likely pass south of New England. This should place most of us on the colder side of the storm. Again, computer models are all over the place with this! The possibility exists for a light to moderate snowfall and or ice potential anywhere from New York City up to Boston later Friday, Friday night into Saturday morning. If the storm tracks closer to Boston, this raises the risk for a burst of heavier snowfall, along with the potential of mixing with sleet and freezing rain later Friday night. If it tracks further south, the system will remain much colder but only bring light snow of 1 to 3″.  The track is critical with these fast moving “clipper” type systems. If they track too close, it can bring mild air in to mix or change to rain. Too far south, and it’s colder, but less moisture. If they take an optimal track, they can produce moderate snowfalls. Something to closely monitor!

We should get a break on Saturday, with any early snow or mixed precipitation ending. The balance of the day should remain cold and dry.

Yet another storm system may approach on Sunday. Once again, similar as the previous ones, the track is critical! Right now, this storm could track a bit further north than the one on Friday, bringing a mixture of snow, sleet and ice to Boston which could turn to rain depending on the exact track. However, due to the strong Greenland block in place, there are some indications this storm would also be forced to track south of New England. If this occurs, another wintery storm will be the end result. Either way. this storm will likely bring more accumulating snow up north to many of the ski resorts. Lots to monitor and keep track!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next posting most likely will not be until sometime in the new year! However, if stormy weather or the threat of a major storm arises, I’ll be sure to update everyone on my social media outlets. In the meantime, enjoy the prospects of snow around the holidays and the upcoming winter season! It’s been a while! For those who dislike the darkness of the season, the days are now beginning to lengthen! I know my sister Pam will be overjoyed with this news!

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas & Happy Hanukkah Season!

Happy New Year!

Stay safe everyone!

Pete

Winter Forecast: Winter’s Return! 11/24/25

Hello, friends! It certainly has been a while! I hope everyone is doing well! I had good intentions to post sometime in October, but time prevented me from doing so! Whatever spare time I have, I’m following the patterns & potential storms closely as we head into the winter season! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Saturday started off damp with a fairly cold rain. Skies partially cleared in the afternoon with the late November sun casting dark shadows on the departing storm clouds. Temperatures plummeted to winter levels Saturday night as clouds quickly increased ahead of our next system. Sunday began with some partial sun, but clouds quickly increased and thickened during the late morning. As I was getting some errands done, I noticed some bursts of light snow showers passing by! Did anyone else see any snow flurries yesterday? I received some reports of some small accumulation across the seacoast region of Southern New Hampshire! This is not uncommon during November. I actually was expecting a small accumulation across the Boston area sometime during this month, but that did not come to fruition.

However, November has turned out being a colder than average month up to this point in Boston. With only six days left to the month, I only foresee one day which will feature above normal temperatures. This will ensure Boston temperatures will be below normal this November. With the colder temperatures, many ski resorts have been able to open two weeks earlier than expected. In addition, some resorts in Vermont have received an unusual amount of natural snow this month. If you believe the reports, Jay Peak in northern Vermont has received a whopping 93″ of snow so far this month! This has broken a record for so much snow so early in the season! Judging by the photos I have seen, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t believe the figure given.

Overall, autumn has turned out quite seasonal. September and October were slightly warmer than normal. However, when you factor in November’s temperatures, it should bring the mean to right around average. This is quite a change compared to the blow torch autumn’s we have seen in recent years. Call me a skeptic, but it feels as if temperatures are trending slightly cooler over the past couple of years anyway. Yes, frosts were slow to arrive this fall, especially across the interior. Boston’s Logan Airport did not observe their first freeze (temperature at 32 degrees) until November 19th. This is nearly two weeks later than normal. Meanwhile, I recorded a freeze where I reside in West Roxbury way back on October 28th.  There was a big discrepancy in temperatures this autumn from locations right along the ocean to areas just inland from the coast. This may play a role in how much snow people see this upcoming winter.

I didn’t have a chance to update my fall foliage reports this season. However, I am pleased to report the season definitely ended with a flourish in and around the Parkway area! Many trees turned deep red and golden yellow colors before finally relinquishing their leaves only within the past couple of weeks! The fall foliage season is now over, as we await the arrival of winter!

Indeed, it’s been quite a journey writing a blog about our climate and weather the past 15 years! Looking through some of my old posts, you would believe we lived somewhere in Alaska! The first five years aside from one year was action packed, with storms and rumors of storms! From blizzards to ice storms, flash freezes to heat waves, we saw it all! Then came the historic winter of 2014-15, when Boston received 110.6″ of snow all within 6 weeks! Looking back, I can honestly say the climate “shifted” after that winter. Yes, there was a decent winter in 2017-18, then again 2021-22, but the rest have featured all below average seasonal snowfall here in Boston, most by a wide margin!

Does this mean winters of the past is just that, of the past? Will we ever see major Nor’easters and blizzards in our lifetime again? The answer to these questions is no and yes! The general public has a short memory when it comes to past weather events. Yes, some can recall the Blizzard of ’78, but even that is distorted to some degree when I chat with folks. Do I correct them? No, it’s better I just let them recall their own memories with how they believed it happened. Why try and correct them? It was nearly 50 years ago! That’s why I’m here to keep the facts in line! I have done the research and have a photographic memory of past weather events!

Last winter was an improvement! Though still falling short of seasonal average, we managed to experience a colder than normal winter for once, and the snow that did fall, stuck around for a while for once. There was nothing major last year. The largest snowfall the city observed was 5.5″ sometime in January. Boston did experience a rare white Christmas last year from a storm that seemingly felt and seen in the city a few days before Christmas. Regardless of whether your town had snow or not, temperatures were cold throughout the holiday season, which was a surprising change, compared to years past.

So last winter was an improvement. Can we expect this winter to be colder & snowier than last winter? Well, I do believe our winters go in cycles. At first glance, it may look random. But upon further inspection, you can clearly see snowy winters come in groups, or cycles as we say. They also seem to build up to a peak, rather than going from no snow to huge winter. Of course, there has been exceptions. Sometimes, we receive a very low snow year in a group of snowy winters. Mother Nature knows the numbers, and she’s only correcting to the mean. All winters can’t be exceptionally snowy, nor can all be snowless. This is why we see fluctuations to snow seasons.

But this doesn’t answer the question what we can expect for this winter, as this is what everyone wants to know! This season has been exceptionally tricky to predict! I’m really not sure why this is the case in recent years. It seemed easier 10 years ago! It could be that global weather patterns are in a constant state of flux. Longtime Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal once called these patterns “chaos” or not able to come up with a clear solution. I mentioned in my weather forum I belong to that this fall has been full of “conflicting signals”. What this means is that I have seen many good signals for a snowy winter this year in Boston, but at the same time I have also observed just as many negative signals.

Some of the positive signals have been more rainfall this autumn, especially in September and October. You need rainy patterns to establish themselves during the autumn season to set a trend for the winter. We have seen more high latitude blocking this autumn compared to recent years. La Nina appeared feeble at best, which is good a sign. This could a biproduct of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) being in an easterly or negative phase. Studies have shown when the QBO is in a negative phase, we tend to see more high latitude blocking. The QBO is a teleconnection that changes wind direction in the equatorial region from westerly to easterly in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This season the QBO is strongly negative. Another positive signal we all observed this fall was the emergence of a what has been called in recent years, the “warm blob” in the Gulf of Alaska. This patch of unusually warmer water in the North Pacific Ocean has been linked to colder & snowier winters here along the east coast. Another positive link is something called the EPO, or Eastern Pacific Oscillation. The EPO is when there’s a ridge of high pressure over Alaska, and a trough of low-pressure east of Hawaii. When this is negative, it tends to keep the pattern progressive, and troughs reaching the east coast.

Yet another positive signal has been temperature profile in Boston this November. As I mentioned earlier, it looks like Boston is going to experience a colder than normal November, the first one in three years. Studies have shown colder than normal Novembers have been linked to snowier winters in Boston. However, I was chatting with my weather friend Frank earlier today on X (Twitter) and mentioned to him this analog no longer holds as much weight as it used to a few years ago. Case in point, the last two Novembers that featured below average temperatures in Boston revealed well below average snowfall in Boston the following winter. Not so reliable! One more among others, was that La Nina appeared feeble at best, and was not going to be much of a player. This was a good sign.

These all seemed like sold signals heading into the fall. However, as we moved deeper into autumn, things began to change. La Nina began to slowly strengthen and has become more established. This is not a great sign. La Nina is the counterpart to El Nino and is classified as colder than normal water in the Southern Pacific Ocean. This disrupts the jet stream across the U.S. and is known for colder and snowier winters in the northwest part of our country, and warmer and drier winters across the southeast, sometimes right up the Atlantic seaboard including here in Boston. As autumn progressed, the warm blob in the Gulf of Alaska disappeared, and has been replaced with colder ocean temperatures.

Another neutral signal was the SSC, or Siberian Snow Cover. Dr. Judah Cohen is an atmospheric scientist who closely follows how much snow falls in Siberia during October, and its relation to the polar vortex, and how much snow falls along the east coast the following winter. SSC started off on record pace, but slowly waned through the month, finishing up right about average. Not too snowy, but not the worst either. Studies have been shown a strong SSC in October is linked to a weaker polar vortex the following winter. The weaker the vortex is, the more intense our winters can be across the U.S. There was some excitement earlier this month with computer models predicting a near collapse of the polar vortex, which would have been only the second time on record this had occurred. Recent computer model data has backed off best case scenario for cold & snow but haven’t completely ruled anything out just yet either. I’m eager to see what Judah has to say in his weekly blog he publishes every Monday evening during the winter season. Recent computer model runs have also diminished high latitude blocking as we begin December, but it’s early, and does not have much bearing on the entire winter.

One last counter signal to a snowy winter is the sun! We are currently in a high solar cycle! Come to think about it, this may be the biggest negative signal of them all. Did anyone see the Northern Lights in the Boston are on November 11th? By the photos posted on social media, it looked like many! I for one saw them for the first time in my life right from my front door! I was intrigued, so I hopped in my vehicle and took a drive up to Millennium Park in West Roxbury and was able to see a panoramic view of the northern skyline. You could see them with the naked eye, but when you used your phone, wow! The colors were amazing, from neon green to bright fuchsia, and I even saw blue without the phone! Well, the Northern Lights were caused from a massive CME, or Coronal Mass Ejection that was aimed directly to earth. I don’t have time to explain exactly how the Northern Lights happen, but when we are in a high solar cycle as we are, research has shown we tend to receive less snowfall here in Boston.

Well, glad I got that off my chest! In reality folks, it’s all how one interprets all this data. It’s next to impossible to get the entire winter correct based off what’s occurring now! Things can and will change leading up to the winter solstice. For this reason, I have instituted a policy of updating my winter forecast one final time around the winter solstice, just in case I see any dramatic changes, which is entirely possible based off what we’re dealing with here. Putting this all together, this is my best educational guess on how I see this winter playing out here in Boston and New England this year.

For this winter, I’m expecting some dramatic temperature swings, but a bit more snow in Boston than in recent years. Overall, I’m expecting a winter closer to seasonal snowfall, with near average temperatures when all is said and done. Keeping in mind, the extremes make the averages. This includes some warm spells, especially here in southern New England. Most notable the first half of winter. Average snowfall in Boston ranges between 45 and 50 inches. For this winter, I’m expecting between 40 and 50″ in Boston proper. More active than last year, with the possibility of couple decent sized Nor’easters. With it being a La Nina year, we wouldn’t expect many Nor’easters, but more open wave, or warm advection events. This means cold air in place while warmer air overrides the colder air producing snow. This is certainly a bump up from last year’s 28″ recorded at Logan Airport.  However, it still may fall short of the seasonal norm of 47″ at Logan Airport. This looks like a winter that will push people’s patience, but not enough to make them snap. If we were entering a weak El Nino season, I would probably be predicting double of what I’m calling for. Max range on the scale would be 65″, lowest would be 25″.

Folks’ south of Boston towards Cape Cod is a bit of a wildcard. If cold air presses while storms cut underneath New England, a snowy winter is in the cards. However, if the southeast ridge presses too much, it may mean a lot of snow to rain scenarios, or mixed events. If storms suppress, you may receive more snow than Boston some storms. My call at this moment is to lean on a slightly colder scenario this winter. This means expect a good bit of snow, I would say 30 to 40″. Not a blockbuster, but more than recent winters. People on the Cape can also expect more snow this winter than recent years. I’m not expecting any blizzards, but a general 20 to 30″ of snow is quite possible in my opinion.

As one would expect, snow amounts increase the further north & west one lives from the coastal plain and especially Rt 128 and I95. Therefore, you can expect between 50 and 60″ of snowfall between Rt 128 and I495 which is again close to seasonal values. Max range on the scale would be 75″, lowest would be 35″. For my friends and family along the seacoast region of New Hampshire you can expect similar amounts this winter as these locations in Massachusetts. Lesser near the ocean, more 10 miles inland away from the coast.

Folks who live north & west of I495 is where I’m expecting above average amounts of snowfall this winter. Worcester County, Monadnock region, Berkshires should all above normal snowfall with many snow events. This should extend up through interior New Hampshire right up along the Maine coaster to the Greater Portland area. I’m expecting between 60 and 80″ of snow this winter in this region.

The real bonanza in my opinion is going to be northern New England and especially the ski resorts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine where most resorts are going to cash in with a big winter! Persistent cold air combining with an active northern jet stream is going to bring copious amounts of snowfall! Jay Peak in Vermont has already picked up nearly a third of its annual snowfall! If there’s any year to plan for a winter ski vacation getaway, this is it! Next year promises an El Nino which typically does not deliver as much snow in this region.

It’s a long winter. Most winters get going after the winter solstice around Boston. I’m expecting a stronger second half to winter than the first half. This means February and March, rather than December and January. I’ll have an update around the winter solstice.

Now for your weekly outdoor late autumn Thanksgiving forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect mainly clear and chilly weather overnight, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Warmest is urban and coastal regions.

Watch for increasing clouds and slightly milder temperatures for your Tuesday, with highs possibly reaching the low 50’s. There may be some scattered rain showers developing later in the afternoon.

Look for areas of rain to traverse the region tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be warming up with lows in the 40’s tomorrow night but possibly skyrocketing towards 60 on Wednesday! There could be additional shower later Wednesday and Wednesday evening ahead of an approaching cold front, but most of the day should be mainly rain-free. Overall, not a bad travel day, but expect some delays nonetheless due to traffic.

A strong cold front will sweep off the eastern seaboard early Thanksgiving Day. This means three things. First, skies will abruptly clear. Two, temperatures will be slowly falling throughout the day. Three, it’s going to become windy! If your travels take you out to upstate N.Y. Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester area, be prepared for lake affect snow squalls with white out conditions possible and hazardous driving conditions. In fact, there is a winter storm watch up for many counties in this part of New York, which will be converted to warnings soon.

For the rest of us, Thanksgiving Day should feature mainly sunny skies with some passing clouds, but as mentioned above it will be windy and cooler! Temperatures will start out in the 40’s but slowly fall into the upper 30’s by evening.

Black Friday will feature more clouds and the chance of some flurries around the region. It will be windy & cold with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30’s. Clear and very cold weather expected Friday night with lows in the teens and 20’s regionwide.

Saturday will feature less wind and dry conditions, as temperatures slowly warm into the 30’s perhaps lower 40’s south.

Sunday watch for increasing clouds as the next system approaches the regions. Showers may arrive from west to east Sunday evening and continue through the night, though no major storm is expected at this time. High temperatures will mainly be in the 30’s north and 40’s south.

Well, that’s about it for now friends! I hope you enjoyed the preliminary winter forecast! As I mentioned earlier, I will have a brief updated version around the winter solstice. As always, if any severe weather or significant winter storm threatens our region, I will be sure to keep everyone updated. In the meantime, there’s much to be thankful for this season. For one, I’m thankful for my business and my employees!

~Wishing all my family & friends a Happy & Healthy Thanksgiving Holiday! ~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Farewell, Summer 2025! 9/15/25

Hello, all! I hope everyone is well and had great, summer! Our weather has been nothing short of spectacular! Day after day, week after week, and month after month! Every day seemingly brings sunshine, blue skies and pleasant temperatures! This past weekend for example delivered warm temperatures and light breezes. Both days featured mainly sunny skies amidst some billowy summertime afternoon cumulus clouds. All in all, not too shabby for mid-September standards!

We are now in the final week of astronomical summer! The autumnal equinox arrives one week from today! On this day, both day and night is of equal time. From that point forward, we continue to lose day light and solar heating until we reach the winter solstice on December 21st. With all that being said, we lose the greatest amount of light during September and gain the most in March. On average, Boston loses approximately 3 minutes of day light each day during September! For those who dislike losing daylight, the worst is yet to come. Come November 2nd we “fall back” and turn the clocks back one hour for daylight savings. Unfortunately, this is when the sun sets at approximately 4:30 in the afternoon. Let’s not think about that right now. It’s still 6 weeks away! Personally, I don’t mind it. But I know I’m in the minority!

When I made my summer forecast back in May, I did not envision what actually transpired. I am surprised more so for the precipitation patterns rather than temperatures. In many ways, this summer is a carbon copy of last summer. Similar to last summer, we had the majority of our heat in June & July. However, this summer was quite a bit hotter in Boston than last summer. Last summer, Boston reached 90 degrees only 12 times. This summer, Boston has reached 90 degrees a whopping 19 times! July was especially hot, with 12 days reaching 90. June featured 4 days, with one of those days shattering the all-time hottest day in any June in Boston at 102 degrees! Much like last summer, the pattern abruptly shifted in August, with much cooler weather arriving. However, we did manage to squeak 3 more days of 90’s in earlier in the month.

What has been more surprising to me is the overall lack of precipitation. Last year was dry. Remember the savage drought we had last autumn? It literally did not rain for much of August, September and October. Well, this year is actually drier! So far, we have had one above normal month of precipitation, and that was this past May. I was certain tropical activity was going to be more active this summer, leading to at the minimum normal rainfall. So far, there has only been one hurricane in the Atlantic basin, and no land falling tropical storms. A lot of precipitation this time of year is a byproduct of tropical storms and weakening hurricanes.

This summer has been particularly dry, especially across northern New England, where severe drought warnings are in place in parts of New Hampshire. It hasn’t been as bad around the Boston area, with some soaking thunderstorms passing right over the city. However, the trend has been dry, and I’m sure the next drought monitor update on Thursday will merge the two dry regions to our north and to our south together to include the Boston region.

Where do we go from here? First things first is our next upcoming season, autumn. Similar to last year, the ongoing drought is going to affect our most cherished season. Last fall was interesting. Leaves seemed to have changed earlier and seemed brighter than they have been in previous years. Though autumn as a whole was warmer than average, the dry conditions and cool temperatures in September seemed to be the right mix for a decent foliage season. Predicting foliage season is like playing the lottery. There are many variables that go into how bright the leaves are going to be.

In many cases, drought can lead to adverse effects on the foliage. While I have noticed some pockets of bright colors around the region, many leaves are holding their green color for now. I believe the bright pockets are due to the lack of water, and trees that are older and susceptible to disease. Keep in mind, it’s still only mid-September, and the real show typically does not begin until October around here. Still, every year is different. I do remember leaves turning quite a bit earlier than normal last year.

Leaves begin to turn from a combination of factors. First, when the days begin to get shorter, the leaves receive less photosynthesis to retain their green color. When the leaves and plants can no longer produce chlorophyl, the leaves begin to turn colors. How vivid and how fast the leaves change is dependent upon weather conditions. Sunny, mild days and clear cool nights bring out the best colors. Too warm and the trees will continue to feed off nutrient rich soil. Too cold, and the leaves could freeze and suddenly fall off the tree. Too much rain and warm temperatures are not good for foliage. This keeps the leaves green well into October. Too dry, such as this year, can also have adverse effects. Foliage can go one of two ways when it’s too dry. The leaves can suddenly turn brown and fall off the trees due to not enough nutrients in the soil. A lot depends on the temperatures. Warm & dry can lead to muted colors. However, mild days and crisp cool nights can bring out an accelerated foliage season, with bright, vivid colors! Stormy autumns with lots of wind and rain is obviously not good for fall foliage.

Let’s cross our fingers. I see milder temperatures arriving for the second half of September, which may linger into the first half of October. This may delay the process, especially for locations within 20 miles of the ocean. There are also indications of a wetter pattern returning to southern New England as we head into October. At this point, I don’t think any rainfall will make or break the foliage season, unless there’s a flood. I believe the foliage, and how bright the leaves may get, is dependent upon fall temperatures. If it cools off enough in time, it should lead to some colorful foliage. However, if the warm weather arrives and then is like an unwanted guest and doesn’t leave until sometime later in November, then I don’t think the foliage season is going to be so nice around here this year. If we experience a brief warm up, then back to normal to slightly below for October into November, foliage could respond nicely.

Whether it’s too dry. too warm, too wet or too cold, autumn brings beauty to the eyes of the beholder. You may have this particular tree in your yard that turns beautiful colors each and every autumn, despite not ideal conditions. Others may enjoy attending fall festivals, going apple picking, or simply taking a drive along the seacoast. More often than not, we enjoy some of the best weather of the year in autumn!

Now time for your first fall foliage report and fall timetable. As mentioned earlier, we are running a little behind with our fall foliage. Yes, there are some pockets and isolated trees changing color. However, most trees remain green, with some isolated areas of color showing up way up in northern New England and across the higher terrain. Like clockwork, expect the colors to begin to arrive across northern New England beginning next week. As far as I can tell with the limited information that I have, I’m expecting low to moderate color this year across northern New England.  Of course there will be areas of bright colors, but the severe drought has to be accounted for. What we really need is some frosty nights to get the colors to begin changing. Fall colors come on quickly in northern New England, set back away from the ocean. Peak colors should arrive in northernmost New England the first week of October, then begin to head south with each passing week. I’m projecting peak foliage to arrive in the Kancamagus highway region of New Hampshire around Columbus Day weekend give or take a few days. Plan accordingly!

As for us down here in southern New England, it’s a slower process, especially as one travels closer to the Atlantic Ocean. Leaves will begin to turn in earnest the second week of October, sooner inland, more slowly along the coast. On average, peak foliage does not arrive in the city of Boston and along the coast until right around Halloween extending into the first week of November. This coincides when the city typically sees their growing season end. On average, the first frost in Boston occurs around the third week of October across the inland neighborhoods but waits until November 4th at Logan Airport. Yes, sometimes frost can happen earlier than these dates, or later! Frost typically arrives the second week of October outside of I95 / Rt 128, and first week of October outside of I495. I do not see any threat of frost in our region through at least September 25th, perhaps through the end of the month. The beauty of autumn along the coast is how the foliage season lasts for a good month. This is due to the oceanic air tempering the climate, resulting in a slower process.

Many friends and family members have been asking what my thoughts are for the upcoming winter! It’s still a bit too early to tell from now. Early indications are for yet another La Nina year! I believe this would be the 4th in five years. What I am confident at this early juncture is that the La Nina looks to be on the weak side, borderline neutral. Neutral is neither La Nina nor El Nino. Some have termed this “La Nada.” At first glance, the winter appears to be a carbon copy of last year. However, the devil is in the details! There are a few important signals I’m carefully monitoring that may make this winter far more interesting than the past few! I will continue to follow these clues and hopefully write a preliminary winter outlook in my next post sometime in October. My official winter forecast will not be posted until November 24th.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity planner forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect fair and rather mild temperatures for your overnight Monday.

Tuesday should continue the pleasant weather, under mainly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s. Fair weather will continue Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday will feature warmer temperatures, with highs mainly in the upper 70’s, to even low 80’s on Friday! It should remain mainly dry. However, a low pressure spinning off the mid-Atlantic coast may throw some low clouds our way later Wednesday into part of the day Thursday. There is a low risk of some isolated showers and sprinkle, perhaps some fog across southeastern Mass and the Cape. No heavy rain or wash outs is anticipated.

This low pressure will move out to sea early Friday, leaving in its wake a beautiful fall-like weekend. Temperatures will feel somewhat cooler, with highs mainly in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. I’m not anticipation any rain, but some we may see some fair-weather cumulus clouds, especially during the afternoon. Looks like a fantastic weekend for my churches Greek festival this weekend located at 160 Goddard Ave in Brookline, Mass. Stop by for some delicious Greek food and music!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next blog will be posted sometime around the third week of October. If a severe storm threatens, I will be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant! My topics next post will be to discuss in more detail my preliminary ideas on the upcoming winter. I will also have an updated fall foliage report and your weekly forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the remaining days of summer 2025, Halloween will be here before you know it!

~Thanks for reading!

Pete

Some Heat…Then a Treat! 6/30/25

Hello, friends! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After last Saturday’s gem, this Saturday reverted back to old habits, with mainly cloudy skies and light showers from time to time. It was also on the damp & cool side. Definitely not a beach day. Our fortunes reversed on Sunday, with mainly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Local sea breezes kept beaches refreshingly cool, with highs mainly in the 70’s, while inland locations reached the mid 80’s.

As I mentioned above, last Saturday we finally broke the unlucky streak of 13 inclement Saturdays in a row! With this past Saturday recording at least some measurable rainfall, we can now say 14 out of the last 15 Saturdays have featured at least “some” rain. With the 4th of July falling on a Friday this year, many are concerned about this Saturday’s weather being the beginning of a new streak. Stay tuned I will have my forecast shortly for the upcoming 4th of July holiday weekend!

Though on the warm side this week, nothing could compare to the absolute inferno we endured last week. It’s almost like it was a dream. Did Boston really eclipse the all-time June hottest temperature on record last Tuesday of 102 degrees? Indeed, we did! The intense four-day heatwave arrived full blast last Sunday, when temperatures soared to 94 degrees. A feeble sea-breeze kept the coast “slightly” cooler Monday, when temperatures reached the mid to upper 90’s inland, but only nudged 90 along the immediate coast. All the while the humidity and dew point temperature was increasing. The combination of dew point temperature and air temperature gave intolerable heat index readings on Monday. But Mother Nature had a real special kind of a day waiting for us on Tuesday. I knew we were in for it when I looked at the temperature at 9:00 in the morning and it was already 92 degrees in Boston! Temperatures continued to soar to 102 degrees in Boston that afternoon, just two degrees off the all-time record for any summer month of 104 degrees, set back on July 4th, 1911.

The heat was only part of the story. With air temperatures of 102 degrees and dew points in the low 70’s, this gave a heat index in Boston that day of an unprecedented 110 degrees! I have lived in Boston my entire life and observed all kinds of weather. I can honestly say Tuesday, June 24th was one of, if not the hottest day I have ever experienced in Boston. Could it of been because it’s still early in the season and it was a shock to the system? Yes, that’s possible. By August we become more accustomed to intense heat and may not have felt as hot. I always say heat waves around the summer solstice feel extra hot, due to the sun angle being so high in the sky, and intense radiation.

The intense heat continued well into the evening. Temperatures remained in the mid 90’s well after sunset. In fact, it was still 92 degrees in Boston at 11:00 PM!

Local meteorologists were forecasting a sea-breeze to break the heatwave Wednesday. Unfortunately, the heat put up a fierce battle, holding back the sea-breeze. Consequently, temperatures soared once again into the mid to upper 90’s across the region. It was another scorcher! It took all the way until dawn on Thursday for the cooler air to finally reach Boston. But when it did, oh what a relief it was! Temperatures were a full 40 degrees cooler Thursday afternoon in Boston, compared to Tuesday! Everyone came alive and could finally breathe again!

Will Boston experience intense heat to this magnitude again this summer? I would say the odds are against it, but not entirely out of the question. After all, we still have nearly 2 1/2 months of summer still ahead of us! Typically, our warmest period of the year runs from July 1st to August 15th. Hot weather can occur before and after this range, but our warmest averaged occur during this 45-day period.

After last week’s heatwave, Boston is up to 5 ninety-degree days. On average, Boston typically observes three 90-degree days during June, and 14 for an entire season. This past May, I predicted Boston would see between 10 and 14 days this summer. No doubt, we are off to a fast start this year! On average, we can see 6 more in July, another 4 in August, and one in September. If we only see “average” temperatures the rest of the summer, Boston will wind up close to 16 ninety-degree days! With another one or two days coming this week, then more coming after the 4th, I’m inclined to bump this number up to 14 to 17 days. Anything is possible. We could continue to receive multiple heatwaves this summer and make a run at 20 like a few years ago when we observed back-to-back summers of 20+ days. On the flip side, the hot weather could abruptly end like it did last summer, when August and September turned cool.  With warmer trends continuing, I believe the former rather than latter will be the case. Summer fans rejoice!

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to briefly discuss our precipitation surplus…and now deficit?? How can this be? Hasn’t it been raining every other day since March? Well, yes and no. Actually, May has been the only above average month of rainfall since the start of the year. With this intense heat, we had a lot of evaporation occur last week. In addition, June has been extremely dry across the region. As we enter the hottest time of the year, it won’t take much for the drought monitor to once again reappear in our region. In fact, when it comes out this Thursday, I believe it will place the Boston area in an “abnormally dry” shading. Right now, much of Cape Cod is shaded under this zone. I believe this area will expand up the coast to include Boston this Thursday. We’ll see how they perceive it. They may not rush it and wait until the following Thursday to see how the moist the soil is. This department of the National Weather Service has received a lot of flak earlier in the season for persisting drought conditions across the Boston area. Overall, the pattern looks somewhat active this July. This means the opportunity for showers & thunderstorms exist with passing cool fronts. However, this time of the year it’s more garden-variety storms, meaning they will hit one community, while leaving the next completely dry. Precipitation in summer patterns tend to be more scattered, not as widespread as other times of the year when we experience mature cyclones.

Time for your outdoor summer activity and special 4th of July forecast! I will rate this week an 8 out of 10, weighted heavily on the holiday and the holiday weekend outlook. Question to everyone. For all the rainy weekends we experienced the last four months, is it worth it to have one beautiful holiday weekend to make up for it??? My vote is yes!!! It’s worth it! We will all enjoy it more! Just my opinion.

Expect muggy weather for the rest of your evening into the night. You may need your air conditioner running again. A wind shift line will be tracking across Boston early tomorrow morning. We may be greeted by a line of showers & thunderstorms first thing tomorrow morning. After this line moves through the region, winds will freshen out of the southwest, skies will partially clear, and temperatures will make a run at the low 90’s across many communities. Another weak sea-breeze may help the beaches stay slightly cooler. As we head towards evening, another thunderstorm complex will be tracking across the state. As it stands right now, inland locations stand the risk of seeing a few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms. As these storms approach the coast, they will tend to weaken in the maritime air. Still, some heavy downpours could track across the city between 6:00 and 9:00 PM. Thereafter, expect some low clouds and fog to linger overnight, under muggy conditions.

Low clouds and muggy conditions may greet you Wednesday morning. There may even be a few lingering showers across the Cape first thing in the morning. Thereafter, expect skies to brighten and warm temperatures to be the theme the rest of the day. We should warm up into the 80’s but most likely fall short of 90.

Another hot day is on deck for your July 3rd. Many coastal communities such as Marshfield and Scituate hold 4th of July celebrations on the 3rd. At this point, it looks to be a rather hot day with highs reaching the low 90’s across many communities, perhaps even east coastal towns. There will be an approaching cool front which may pack a punch. Behind this cool front cooler summer polar air will come rushing into New England on July 4th itself. This may be enough to spark some showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening. Some may be feisty. With all that being said, some communities will miss the showers all-together. Whatever comes through, I’m confident will keep moving off the coast to allow for 3rd of July celebrations to move forward. Enjoy & be safe!

As for the 4th itself, expect cooler & drier air to rush into the region on the heels of northwest winds. Somewhat unusual for the 4th of July standards, but still very pleasant weather nonetheless! Temperatures will slowly warm through the 70’s and into the low 80’s by afternoon. With cold air aloft, there will be some puffy cumulus clouds popping up across the region. This is especially true across much of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine where the cold air aloft is thicker. In these weather conditions, there may be a brief pop-up shower crossing the region at some point during the afternoon early evening. These showers will be brief, and widely scattered, with only 10% of the region seeing one. Once the sun sets, these scattered showers will evaporate leading to perfect sky conditions for all the fireworks displays across the region. Enjoy!

As this trough exits New England Saturday, expect more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 80’s making for a spectacular beach day.

Building hot weather will begin moving into New England Sunday, with many cities and towns away from the south coast and Cape warming up to the lower to mid-90’s! Cape Cod will be 10 degrees cooler if you plan on being down there. That’s the place to escape the heat! Also, Cape Ann Gloucester/Rockport region may also be 10 degrees cooler, with a slight component off the ocean.

By the way, boating looks good through the weekend. Watch for a slight chop on the waters on Friday the 4th, but from a northwest direction. This direction typically brings less wave action south side of the Cape. Also watch for increasing southwest wind on Sunday, which may bring choppy waters off the Cape. Saturday looks like the best day for boating in my opinion.

Hot weather will continue into Monday and possibly even into Tuesday with highs back into the 90’s. If true, it would qualify for our second heat wave in as many days! Wow, it still would only be early July!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post may not be until early to mid-August or whenever time permits. As always, I will monitor any significant weather events and be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant before then. In the meantime, let’s see how many 90-degree days we see from now until then! Depending on how you feel about summer, it could either be a treat or bring you down in defeat! Either way, we will endure as we always do!

~Wishing everyone a safe & Happy Independence Day! ~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

May Nor’easter?? 5/19/25

Hello! I hope everyone is doing well! It’s been a whirlwind of a few months, but I’m back for my summer forecast amongst other topics! There’s lots to discuss, so I’ll get right into it!

Due to time restrictions, I am not posting as frequently as I once did. However, you can be rest assured I still keep a close eye on our ever-changing weather patterns! During times away from the blog, friends and family contact me requesting special forecasts for special upcoming events. If you ever need assistance, do not hesitate to contact me if you want a custom forecast for an upcoming event or a trip!

Speaking of trips, I took a short trip with my sister Pam and brother in-law Michael out to visit family in St. Louis, Missouri over Mother’s Day weekend. If you are ever in the St. Louis area, I highly recommend visiting the Arch in St. Louis! What an amazing architectural structure!  Under the Arch underground, they have a beautiful museum on the history of the Arch. While there, you can purchase tickets to take a tram up to the observatory area at the top of the Arch. Or you can grab a bite to eat at the cafe. I mention this, because just one week after we were there, St. Louis experienced a devastating tornado which passed through downtown just bypassing the Arch!

Just this past Saturday my nephew Nick graduated from Bentley University in Waltham. Talking about walking a delicate balance! There was talk all week of inclement weather, with showers and thunderstorms likely any part of the day. As it turned out, the ceremony went off without one drop of rain falling! Yes, it threatened, and some showers were nearby, but they bypassed the field and everyone was relieved! What a mess it would have been if heavy showers and thunderstorms tracked across the graduation! There’s was talk of rushing graduates and two guests indoors to the hockey arena if this occurred. This would have left thousands of friends and family standing out in the rain. Sometimes, you need a little luck from Mother Nature!

While we may have dodged a bullet, this has not been the case for many other folks attending outdoor events this spring. Many friends and family members frequently ask me, when in God’s name is this unsettled pattern going to end??? It hasn’t been a particularly cold spring (yet), but it’s been so darn unsettled, especially over the weekends! Now, New England wants to serve up something real special for all of us. A late season Greenland block has developed, and that’s never a good sign for us here in New England. While temperatures are soaring across locations such as Iceland, temperatures will be turning colder here in New England. Not only is it going to become unseasonably cold just in time for the Memorial Day holiday weekend, but there is also the threat for a late season Nor’easter storm coming up on Thursday! Before anyone panics, I am not expecting any snow in the Boston area! Nor’easter’s can occur anytime of the year and can feature heavy snowfall as we all know, but also heavy rain and strong winds. With all that being said, some computer models are actually showing the potential for some snowfall across some of the highest terrain areas of northern New England! It has happened before. As I have mentioned many times, May is a transition month and is still technically spring. I will have more details about this impending storm in my forecast shortly.

The big question in the weather community today is, “where was this pattern a few months ago?” This is a good question! Had this pattern showed up a couple of months ago, we would have been looking at a real whopper of a snowstorm! However, being here in late May, I’m expecting a windswept soaking rainstorm around here on Thursday. What we will notice is the unseasonably cold temperatures the storm is going to bring along with it. I’m sure many of us will be turning the heat back on during the storm as temperatures plummet to unseasonably cold levels for this time of the year.

To be completely honest, this upcoming storm piques my interest. While most everyone does not want to have anything to do with the word Nor’easter until next November or even later, most would agree the weather patterns around here have been quite benign for several years now. Yes, my schedule has tightened quite up a bit. However, had there been any significant storms to talk about, you can be assured I would of been sending updates! There were some reports showing a rather dramatic shift with the gulf stream. Recent infrared ocean temperatures have shown colder ocean temperatures around New England, and that the gulf stream has shifted about 300 miles further south than its typical location. Once I saw this report, it all started to make a little more sense to me. To make storms, you need a baroclinic zone (contrast of temperature) to help storms intensify. Last winter, there were plenty of storms. However, they were all forming about 300 miles too far off the coast to adversely affect us.

Speaking of last winter, I would give my winter forecast a B minus for a score. It was pretty close to being on target, but honestly, I feel as if it fell short. It wasn’t by much, but the way winter faded so quickly, everything kind of petered out. The forecast called for between 30 and 40″ of snowfall in Boston. Officially Logan ended up with 28.3″, which was close call, but short of the mark. The overall call for below normal snowfall and slightly colder than normal temperatures was good. In addition, I called for a much better ski season for the ski resorts up north. This worked out very well, as most areas avoided a mid-winter thaw, and saw plentiful snowfall. This was due to an active polar jet stream. The issue for us here in eastern Mass is that the two jet streams (northern and southern) failed to phase during the entire winter. This left many storm systems crossing ski country in northern New England, while southern storms slid harmlessly out to sea. The highpoint of winter was January, where colder than normal temperatures coincided with near average amounts of precipitation. This led to several light to moderate storms and near average amounts of snowfall. Winter faded in early February and by early March Spring was in the air.

I will say the one highlight was the first white Christmas in Boston since 2017! A surprise storm delivered 5 to 7″ of wet snow on December 20th. Cold temperatures after the storm persisted into Christmas, keeping the snowfall intact. It was nice to have snow on Christmas for a change!

Enough about winter! We have long transitioned out of winter and are on the cusp of beginning summer! While astrological summer begins on June 20th, Meteorological summer begins in just two weeks from now on June 1st!

At this early juncture, summer is looking to be on the warmish side, with an abundant of rainfall. I rate how summers are by how many 90-degree days we receive. On average, Boston receives 14 ninety-degree days each summer. Last year, we only managed to receive 12, but it seemed a lot hotter than that! Honestly, it was! June and July were scorchers with inland locations receiving twice the amount that Boston saw. This was due to very weak feeble sea breezes at Logan Airport preventing Logan from hitting 90 degrees. I don’t recall the exact number, but I’m sure Boston saw at least 10 days that reached 89 degrees!

Looking back at past summers, it’s all about perception vs the reality. On paper, last summer did not appear to be very hot. However, when you look deeper into it, it was one of the muggiest summers on record. Combine that with nearly two months of relentless temperatures in the 90’s, and we were baking for days on end! I remember my air conditioners constantly running for nearly two months straight. If the heat had persisted into August, it undoubtedly would have gone down as one of the hottest summers on record. However, it did not! I shift in the weather pattern brought relief for many here in New England. Cooler & drier conditions arrived temperatures turning many people’s attention towards fall!

For this summer, I’m expecting between 10 and 14 ninety-degree days in Boston. This is about the long-term average. It looks like the large heat dome that typically dominates during the summer is going to set up across the middle of the country. New England looks like it will be on the edge of this heat dome. We typically see our hottest summers when the Bermuda High Pressure is dominant off the east coast. This has been the case over the last two summers. However, this year, while warm to hot at times, I see cool fronts passing through New England keeping the heat waves in check. Along with the warm temperatures, there will be no lack of humidity. As has been the case over the last decade or so, New England summers have become increasingly more humid. We shall see if this trend continues, but computer models are showing extensive areas of high humidity extended well into New England from the deep south.

In addition, the east coast looks very active this summer. Stalled weather boundaries, cold fronts separating cool and warm air, and possibly tropical activity may lead to a wetter than normal summer across a good part of the east coast, including us here in New England. So difficult pinpointing when to expect wettest periods, but suffice to say, it looks wet. It’s one thing if just one computer model was projecting wetter than normal conditions. But when several models are showing above average amounts of rain, one needs to begin paying attention. Something’s up, whether it be multiple storms, thunderstorms, coastal storms or increased tropical cyclones or maybe even a hurricane? We shall see.

Many beach-goers and fans of summertime may be disappointed in this forecast. Believe it or not, I myself enjoy going to the beach and summery weather! Please keep this in mind. This is only a forecast. Things can change, and sometimes they turn out completely different than we expected. In addition, the pattern may revert to beautiful weekends and inclement weather during the weekdays. We have been stuck in a God-awful pattern for several months now of fair weather during the weekdays and rain on weekends. Terrible!

Also keep in mind it’s a long summer. It’s possible the first half of the summer is more inclement, and a nicer pattern settles in for the second half. Somewhat like last summer. September has become more a of summery month in recent years. I have seen this scenario many times before. It’s very rare the entire summer is rainy.

Time for your summer outdoor activity forecast. Not looking too summery at all this week!

Expect mainly cloudy skies for the balance of this afternoon. It will be breezy at times and on the cooler side for late May standards. Highs will generally be in the lower 60’s. You may need a light jacket for that evening walk.

Watch for cool weather conditions overnight. An onshore flow from a stalled storm up in the Canadian Maritimes may bring low clouds and drizzle to the coast.

Tuesday may bring a continuation of low clouds, fog and drizzle, especially in the morning. I can’t rule out some breaks in the clouds, but there’s also a chance of a few periods of light rain as the storm to our northeast continues to pinwheel moisture in from the off of the ocean. The cool theme will continue, with high temperatures struggling to reach 60. Hang on, it only gets worse from here.

Could Wednesday be a decent day? There’s a possibility as the storm slowly departs to our northeast, and another approaches. There may be a small window of some sunny breaks Wednesday morning before increasing clouds take over during the afternoon. Temperatures may respond and be slightly warmer. This is just a maybe.

Clouds will continue to lower and thicken Wednesday night as our storm approaches. Winds will begin to freshen out of the northeast and sheet drizzle may overspread coastal locations.

As I mentioned earlier, had this been a few months ago, we may have been looking at a major snowstorm, perhaps even a blizzard. Regardless, Thursday looks to bring full Nor’easter conditions, in what may be our first real Nor’easter in over three years in the Boston area.

Watch for a windswept soaking rain, strong winds and unseasonably cold temperatures for this time of the year. Winds may gust to between 40 and 50 MPH. With trees fully foliated, this may result in downed trees and branches as well as scattered power outages across the area. There’s also the potential of pockets of coastal minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coast. At the very least, make sure your boats are docked or securely tied to moorings. If you have a home in areas that are prone to coastal flooding, I would keep a close eye on the forecast and for any special statements from local officials or the National Weather Service.

Stormy conditions may persist into Thursday evening, then slowly abate overnight. There may be some leftover showers and gusty winds Friday, but this should come to an end as the day progresses. Things will slowly dry out the balance of the day, but cool temperatures will persist.

You would think we’re all in the clear for the upcoming holiday weekend. Unfortunately, more unstable weather will be following the storm with unseasonably cold air aloft tracking across New England both Saturday and Sunday. This means any morning sunshine will build afternoon clouds and chance of showers and even some small hail across the region. Winds will also be on the gusty side. Temperatures will feel more like late March than late May. Certainly nothing remotely close to Memorial Day. There’s even the potential of some scattered overnight frost across northern New England. If there’s one place the weather may not be so unsettled, it would be on Cape Cod. There’s a chance the most unstable air passes north of the Cape. During late spring and summer, sometimes the ocean warms up enough to keep the Cape less unstable. Not a promise.

Monday looks fairly tranquil to me at this point. This could also change, but at this point, we could be in between two weather systems. One leaving New England, and another arriving on Tuesday. It could be mainly a dry day with increasing cloudiness. Rain should hold off until night, but if that system speeds up in any way, it could begin raining by late afternoon. Conversely if it slows down, rain could hold off until Tuesday morning. Timing is everything, as they say!

Well, that’s about it for now! Depending upon time, my next blog may not be until around the summer solstice. At that time, I will post my revised and final forecast for the upcoming summer. Cross our fingers for a better outlook! There’s still time for changes! In the meantime, enjoy each day as they come. Nothing is guaranteed in life but lousy Memorial weekend weather here in New England!

~Remembering those who sacrificed their lives this Memorial Day ~

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Be safe!

Stormy Signal! 2/3/25

Hello! I hope everyone is well!  It’s been a while since my last post, December 23rd to be exact! My time continues to be limited, as each Monday is filled with increasing work demands. We have a lot to discuss, but unfortunately this is going to be an abbreviated blog. I wanted to get this important update in to make sure everyone is aware of the upcoming pattern for February.

So far, I’m extremely pleased with how the winter forecast has evolved this year. The initial call was for a colder winter, with Boston possibly observing its first colder than normal in over 10 years. What I mean by colder than normal would-be recording December, January and February with below average temperatures. So far, December and January have featured below average temperatures. February was looking warmer, but now it too appears to be leaning cold. We have had cold months in the past 10 years, some even two in a row, but it’s been over a decade to find three consecutive winter months featuring below average temperatures. We just started the month, so we’ll see where we land.

This has also been an amazing winter for outdoor winter activities. Outdoor skating rinks, ice fishing, pond hockey and snow skiing has been the best it’s been in years! Sustained cold temperatures & minimal snowfalls has led to excellent conditions for ice formation. While there haven’t been any blockbuster storms so far this winter, any storm system crossing ski country has produced lots of powdery snow. In fact, the winds have been so strong crossing Lake Ontario, plumes of snow squalls have been crossing New York state and finding their way to many ski resorts in Vermont. They call this upslope snow, and the amounts have been measured in feet in favored upslope ski resorts! Other resorts that have not seen a ton of snow have been able to make a ton of snow due to the persistent cold temperatures and no disastrous meltdowns.

I also called for between 30 and 40″ of snow this season in Boston, with most arriving here in February and March. So far, we have about 15″ of snow this season. This is running below what normally would have fallen at this point of the winter. Normally, Boston would have already received approximately 28″ at this point in the season. We are running ahead of last year, but still below where we should be this time of the year. Overall, it’s been a colder and somewhat snowier winter than last year, which was what I was expecting.

Interestingly enough, all telecommunications, analogs, seasonal computer models all pointed to one of the warmest and least snowiest winters on record back in the fall. While there were many mixed signals, I saw enough winter signals leading me to believe a more active winter was on the way.

While nothing in weather is for certain until after it happens, I am seeing signs of a stormy period for much of New England this February. To me, the snow falling this past Saturday morning was a bit of tone setter from Mother Nature of what may be coming this month. When most of the storm fell as rain around Boston, many areas in New Hampshire and Maine received 3 to 6″ of snow. As the storm pulled away, a quick wind shift to the north changed the rain to blustery snow showers. This led to a surprisingly wintery scene around here, as temperatures plummeted creating hazardous driving conditions.

The long awaited La Nina (cold ocean temperatures off South American coast) has finally arrived.  La Nina was originally meant to be the driving force this winter. However, the delay opened the door for other teleconnections to flex their muscles. A large, expansive polar vortex has been squashing the southeast ridge this winter, allowing bitterly cold air masses from Canada to plunge south & east out of Canada. During one of these arctic outbreaks, the frigid temperatures drove all the way to the Gulf coast. As this arctic air advected over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it initiated a storm to develop. Many of us were in disbelief as the storm quickly intensified into a massive deep south snowstorm. In some areas blizzard warnings were posted in Louisianna where up to one foot of wind-blown snow fell! The storm then tracked across northern Florida where the state observed its heaviest snowfall ever recorded with up to 9″ falling! Most of this storm missed New England, as the cold air kept it suppressed passing out to sea to our south and east.

Aside from that storm in the deep south, most areas have received below normal snowfall. Exceptions have been around the Great Lakes, the mountains of western New England, and the deep south including Florida! Most of the I95 corridor has seen the multi-year snow drought continue. Aside from Portland, Maine, Boston has seen more snowfalls than other major cities along the I95 corridor. There are growing signals of a major disruptive winter pattern change beginning this week, but I am really keeping a close eye on or around Valentine’s Day. This is not unusual in any way. The period from February 4th to the 14th is known as “Primetime” here in Boston. This is when the atmosphere is most conducive to produce a major winter storm, nor’easter or even a blizzard in Boston. Our most severe winter storm ever recorded was observed on February 6th and 7th back in 1978, also known as “The Great Blizzard of 1978″!

The pattern over the next few weeks will feature a classic battle of the air masses! Longtime Boston meteorologist Harvey Leonard (retired) used to always say to get a good storm, you need a clash of air masses. The more intense the clash, the bigger the storm! Mother Nature has been dormant the past couple of years with benign weather patterns. I believe this is going to change in a big way this month!

In an odd twist of fate, the awakening of La Nina is going to be the catalyst to jump start this volatile pattern. We’ve had the cold air around all winter. There just wasn’t any warm air around to make a storm. With La Nina now here, the southern part of the country is going to turn unseasonably warm. At the same time, the polar vortex is expanding, stretching and is ready to send arctic air slowly into the Northeast like taffy. This is going to set up an intense baroclinic zone (difference in temperature) across the middle of the country and just south of New England. This pattern is very reminiscent of the winter of 1995-96.

What I’m expecting is fast moving winter storms beginning this Thursday with storms following every three or four days thereafter. Depending on where this baroclinic zone sets up, these storms can feature all snow, snow to sleet, and the worse scenario freezing rain with a possible ice storm. If storms track close enough, it may bring enough warm air in off of the ocean to turn coastal areas to plain rain. But frigid air will be lurking close by, so flash freezes will be possible if any precipitation changes to rain. As we move deeper into February, the jet stream may dig deeper into the eastern part of the country and develop a more classic nor’easter or even a possible blizzard around mid-month. More storms may follow through the 24th of February before the pattern relaxes. It’s possible Boston receives two to two and a half feet of snow during this particular storm blitz. This will not be as intense as the epic 2014-15 snow blitz but still could bring the city to a standstill for a time at its peak.

Now for your weekly ski forecast. I will rate ski conditions this week a 10 out of 10. Ski country received 3 to 6″ last night, and another storm coming Thursday, with yet another one coming late Saturday into early Sunday. The dam is about to break! Look for the best conditions in years for pretty much the balance of February! Storm after storm will bury ski country with feet of snow! It may be a case of too much snow, as some folks may have trouble getting to the resorts.

Time for your outdoor winter activity forecast. After a fairly mild and benign weather today, expect temperatures to once again slowly fall across the region come tomorrow. A cold front will pass through New England overnight, bringing blustery winds later tonight and especially tomorrow. High temperatures will be felt early in the day tomorrow, with temperatures dropping during the day. It will feel colder tomorrow compared to today due to the gusty winds.

Tuesday night will feature much colder temperatures compared to tonight. Lows will fall into the teens and lower 20s.

Expect a cold start to Wednesday morning, As the day progresses, sunshine will become filtered through increasing clouds. It will be a cold day, with high temperatures around freezing. Clouds will continue to lower and thicken Wednesday night. Snow should overspread the region before dawn Thursday. Most areas should see a quick burst of 1 to 3” of snow. As the storm tracks close to the region, the snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain. Along the coast and south of the Mass Pike including Boston, the ice will turn to plain rain. However, cold temperatures will remain across the interior north and west of Rt 128 but especially I495 where there may be a light accretion of freezing rain. The storm will move out Thursday afternoon, followed by colder temperatures Thursday night which may lead to a flash freeze with any remaining moisture in the Boston area. Colder but drier weather will follow Friday and Saturday.

A similar storm may follow arriving Saturday night into early Sunday. This storm may take a slightly further south track and may be slightly colder. Therefore, we may receive slightly more snow and ice from this storm overnight Saturday into early Sunday. This too may also change to sleet and freezing rain into the city, and possibly plain rain if it warms up enough off of the ocean. Yet another storm may arrive a few days after Sunday. As I mentioned earlier in the post, I am closely monitoring the potential for a larger storm later next week. I will update everyone if conditions warrant regarding that potential storm.

Well, that’s about it for now! Time is short, but I will make time to keep everyone updated through the month with social media updates as needed. My next full posting may not happen until sometime early in March! In the meantime, keep the snow shovels and snow blowers on alert, as we enter Primetime snow season here in Boston!

~Be safe and thanks for reading! ~

Pete

Winter Update: Festive Flurries! 12/23/24

Hello! Happy winter, Merry Christmas & Happy Hanukkah to all! It was a festive weekend around many parts of New England! Boston received its first significant snowstorm in nearly two years, as 5 to 7″ of wet snow plastered the city on Friday. For once the bullseye was right in the city itself. Many areas just south of Boston received very little snowfall in the quirky storm. I measured nearly 6.5″ at my residence in West Roxbury, which happened to be one area that was in the bullseye for highest amounts. The nature of the wet snow clung to every branch leaving a picturesque landscape across the Parkway region! In the storms wake, bitter cold temperatures this past weekend assured a weekend full of outdoor winter activity fun! The winter storm arrived just in time to whiten the landscape for the holiday season!

Overall, the storm was poorly forecasted. Forecasts the evening before called for a dusting to maybe an inch. Amounts increased up to 2″ the next morning. Hard to believe, but amounts were already surpassing the upgraded amounts with heavy snow still yet to arrive. I was perplexed that morning with many short-range computer models coming in with up to 6″ of snow in Boston, yet the National Weather Service continued to stick with up to 2″ accumulation in the city. I believe this led to a belief that the storm wasn’t going to be anything of significance. Remember, it’s been two solid years since Boston has received any significant snow. I believe people actually became used to having no snow around here. Perhaps snow is a thing of the past, many said? As the snow kept piling up, roads became increasingly treacherous across the city, as city workers seemingly were not deployed to treat the roads. This led to a frustrating commute, as many people headed out at the same time, spinning their wheels on the greasy roads. It wasn’t quite as bad as the infamous “Grid Lock” storm of December 13th, 2007, but it certainly brought back vivid memories!

Many are asking, are we going to have a white Christmas? Indeed, we are! We still have a solid snowpack in Boston from last Friday’s storm! There are a couple of gaps in the coverage, especially south of Boston, but most of New England has enough snow on the ground for a white Christmas. This was the perfect type of snow that can stick around. Sometimes we receive very low-density powdery snow which seems to evaporate and be gone the next day. This was a high-density snow and will take a lot of energy from the atmosphere to melt. Some areas to our north that have low coverage should receive just enough tomorrow to qualify them as well!

Officially, this will be Boston’s first white Christmas since 2009. Growing up back in the 60’s and 70’s we had many white Christmases. Boston used to have about a 33% chance of a white Christmas, or approximately a 1 in 3 chance. As the years passed, this dropped to our current number of 25% or 1 in 4 chances. This percentage is highly skewed, we can go 6 or 7 years without a white Christmas, followed by 2  in a row. It’s true, in recent years the chances of a white Christmas appear to be dwindling. However, I believe it’s cyclical. It’s possible we go on a run of 3 or 4 white Christmases over the next several years! As a reminder, chances are much greater of a white Christmas across the interior of New England.

Unofficially, there was a white Christmas in 2017. According to the National Weather Service, it didn’t count as a white Christmas, because snow started falling after 7:00 AM. There has to be at least one inch of snow on the ground at 7:00 AM Christmas morning for it to officially count as a white Christmas. Yes, snow began falling after 7:00 AM, but when it started, it was a mini blizzard with several inches falling in just a few hours! In my opinion, it was a white Christmas!

A quick moving storm will deliver some festive flurries and patches of light snow tomorrow on Christmas Eve! Fortunately, this will not be a large storm, but the devil is in the details, as they say. An approaching warm front, along with a weak “Alberta Clipper” low pressure will track through New England tomorrow. Latest computer models are weakening this feature on its approach to the coast. A couple of days ago it was showing a good inch or two of snow even in Boston. This system will be tracking across central New England. Locations to the north of the track will see more widespread snowfall than areas to the south. I would say locations north of I90 (Mass Pike) have the best chance of seeing a dusting to 2″ of snow, which includes the New Hampshire seacoast region and coastal Maine. The further north and west you are, the more snow you will receive. Generally speaking, many locations in Vermont, New Hampshire and interior Maine will receive 1 to 4″ of snow. However, some higher elevations could receive between 3 and 6″ with some favorable upslope mountain locations in Vermont receiving 6 to 10″ of powder snow! What a Christmas gift! Another spot that may receive appreciable snowfall is far Downeast Maine, where up to 6″ may fall as the storm intensifies off the coast.

Down here in Boston, there will be a line of snow showers moving through between 7 AM and 11 AM. The snow may briefly come down at a good clip, dropping a fresh dusting of snow. As soon as it looks like a big storm is coming, the snow will whisk off the coast, with clearing skies for the afternoon. It may not be much but be aware if you’re out and about the roads may briefly turn slick if the snow comes down hard enough. Again, not a big storm, but it may be just enough to put everyone in the holiday mood! Enjoy it. How many times in the last 10 years can we say we had snow & cold temperatures around for Christmas?

About a month ago today, November 25th to be exact, I published my preliminary winter forecast for the 2024-25 winter. To refresh your memory, my forecast called for a changeable winter, with periods of cold and warm temperatures. Overall, I leaned towards a slightly colder winter here in Boston. As you know, this statement is all relative! Slightly colder to what? Colder than last winter? Colder than the last five or 10 years? Well, let’s try and keep it simple with a short sample size. What I was trying to communicate is that I am expecting the winter to be both colder than last winter, and slightly colder than the 30-year climatologic average. With winters being so warm of late, this does not seem too much of a stretch. However, in my opinion, it would be a very significant development in a warming climate. If Boston can pull this off, it would defy computer models and most professional scientists that predicted it to be another warmer than normal winter. So far, December is averaging slightly below average temperatures in Boston, which is huge especially considering how warm the past several Decembers has been. Sometimes, a colder than normal December is a precursor to a colder than normal winter.

I also predicted a snowier winter on the way, compared to the last two! Average snowfall in Boston is between 45 and 50″ of snow. Suburbs between 50 and 60″. My forecast called for slightly less than average with between 30 and 40″ of snow in Boston this winter, with near average snowfall for December. Unless we receive a last second snow in December, snowfall is going to be slightly less than normal in Boston, despite the snowstorm this past Friday. Boston averages approximately 9″ of snow each December. However, this is much more snow than we have received in Boston over the last 2 years combined!

Looking over the latest long-range weather guidance, I see no reason to make any changes to my winter forecast. There are some strong indications that snowfall may end up closer to our average than anything else. I could bump up the range to 40 to 50″ of snow in Boston. This could easily verify. However, I feel as if anytime I make any changes to my forecast, I always end up regretting it and wished I left it as is. If snowfall exceeds my forecast, it would be after a very warm November, which would be exceedingly rare! I feel I am on the right path with a colder and snowier winter than the last two! There’s also an increased risk of a major storm greater than 10″, if not even an east coast blizzard. New computer guidance is saying watch out for January!

Why the increased confidence? Well, it appears some of the “snowier” signals for the upcoming winter are indeed holding strong. Some of these signals showing up on computer models are predicting increased high latitude blocking, also known as the negative NAO or “Greenland block”. As high pressure increases over Greenland, it forces warmer than normal air from Canada down into the United States, particularly the east coast and New England. You may say, Pete, that’s great, it’s going to be warm here in New England! Well, no. When warmer than normal air from Greenland gets displaced and arrives down to us in lower latitudes, it’s actually colder than normal relative to averages! Thanks, Greenland!

There’s another teleconnection that has been missing in action the past couple of winters, that is active this year! It’s called the EPO, or Eastern Pacific Oscillation. When there’s a trough (cold & stormy) east of Hawaii, and a ridge (warm and dry) north of it, this is when the EPO is negative. This tele-connects with colder temperatures here in New England like clockwork! So far, the EPO has been mostly negative this winter and has been helping to thwart any sustained warmups here in New England and along the entire east coast for that matter so far this winter!

Another strong signal is that La Nina (ENSO) (colder than normal ocean temperatures in southern Pacific Ocean) has not strengthened as much as earlier thought. In fact, it’s remained weak borderline what we call neutral phase, or “La Nada”. Neither El Nino nor La Nina. You can look at it as a mixture of the two. When this occurs, the stubborn southeast ridge, while still may be present, becomes less of a factor. This allows other signals to become more dominant, such as the Greenland block and EPO. This also allows the polar vortex to weaken at times, which could play a major factor in our upcoming winter. If we were to happen to get a major disruption, or even a split of the vortex, then winter could take a decidedly more severe look, and linger deep into spring. Something to keep a close eye on.

Yet, there are other signals offsetting the cold & snowy signals. The north Pacific Ocean remains cold. This is what is called a negative PDO. The Pacific cycles from periods of warm to periods of cold. When it’s cold, cold troughs can crash the west coast and come inland bringing prolific snowfall to the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and sometimes the Colorado Rockies. When this happens, high pressure tends to build along the east coast, prohibiting Nor’easters or coastal storms from developing. Instead, these storms tend to track across Ontario into Quebec, bring mostly rain and warm temperatures to southern New England. This has been the predominant pattern for the better part of two years now. So far, there’s actually been more ridges than troughs out west, especially here in December. Let’s see if this continues heading into January. In addition, we are just coming off an extremely active solar maximum cycle. Remember all of those Northern Lights we witnessed last fall? These solar flares ejecting from the sun can sometimes alter our weather patterns, resulting in warm winters. We also have low volcanic activity at this time.

For this reason, I’m playing it conservative this winter. While the potential is there for a blockbuster winter, the ingredients may not all be lining up this year, especially for the coast. For sure the cold signals are stronger this year than recent years. However, I still see the warm signals still playing a role this winter. This means a couple of things. The weather this winter will become increasingly volatile. Expect rapidly changeable conditions, especially along the coast. This means more arctic blasts, and more snow than recent years, punctuated by periods of milder, benign patterns. This should lead us to a winter that we’re more accustomed to around here. As mentioned in my initial winter forecast, anything and everything is on the table!

Here’s our weekly updated ski forecast. I will rate ski conditions across northern resorts as an 8 out of 10. This is for the period between Christmas and New Year’s. There will not be an epic meltdown this year, like the disaster of last year. As mentioned above, a fast-moving storm will bring several inches of powder to many resorts tomorrow. Some favored northern resorts may receive much more than that. This will bring epic conditions for anyone thinking about skiing on Christmas Day into this upcoming weekend. Temperatures should moderate, with light winds and no major storms anticipated. As an added bonus, there will be no major meltdown as opposed to last year. A major pattern change could arrive around the New Year. This could initially bring rain and mild temperatures but watch for a turn to colder and stormier conditions as we head into the first week of the New Year. Enjoy!

Now time for your weekly outdoor winter activity & holiday forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. After the quick burst of morning light snow, the rest of the week looks quite pleasant.

Expect increasing clouds this evening. At or just after midnight, an initial patch of light snow and flurries will work across the area. Ther may be a feather dusting in some communities, but this should not affect road conditions. This is associated with warm air aloft overriding the cold air at the surface. It will be cold, with lows dropping into the teens and lower 20’s.

For your Christmas Eve, watch for wintry conditions the first half of the day. A band of snow will be tracking across the state from west to east. The snow should be moving off the coast by noontime, followed by clearing skies for your afternoon. It won’t be much, but many communities will receive a fresh dusting to perhaps one inch. As mentioned above, areas north of the Mass Pike could receive slightly more. If out and about, please be aware of some slippery driving conditions as the snow falls. This is especially true due to the recent cold temperatures. Snow will stick to untreated surfaces, possibly resulting in some icy spots. Remember, it doesn’t take much! Some of our worst traveling conditions are by the result of quick bursts of snow, not blizzards! Snow will be tracking east of Boston by 11:00 AM and clearing the coast by 1:00 PM. Thereafter, expect some partial sun to break through the clouds. Temperatures may break freezing in the afternoon, especially if we see any sun.

Christmas Eve evening should bring tranquil weather conditions. Quite seasonal in fact. I do not see any strong winds, not bitter cold temperatures. Just expect clear skies and cold temperatures, as it should be. Expect low temperatures to fall to the teens and 20’s overnight.

At this time, I’m expecting dry weather & partly sunny skies for Christmas Day. Winds may turn onshore, so we do need to watch for some ocean clouds near the coast. Temperatures should be right where they should be for Christmas Day, perhaps a touch below normal. I’m expecting high temperatures to be in the mid to upper 30’s. Dry weather should persist into Christmas night with lows mainly in the 20’s.

As for the rest of the holiday week, it looks fairly tranquil with a slight moderation in temperatures. One thing to keep an eye on is for onshore winds, which could result in some ocean cloudiness near the coast. Otherwise, temperatures should make it into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s on Thursday, lower 40’s on Friday, and possibly lower 50’s for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures should continue to be mild through New Years Eve. There may even be some rain at that time, but that’s still over one week away and things could still change. Some computer models show a colder solution, which may introduce some wintry precipitation. As for now, expect temperatures to moderate heading into New Year’s, with possibly some changes thereafter.

Well, that’s about it for now! It’s difficult to say when my next post will be written. If time permits, it would be on Monday, January 6th. If patterns remain benign, it could be mid-month. However, if I see signs of an impending winter storm, I will be sure to update everyone. If not the blog, then a special social media update. As mentioned above, I am expecting a more active and at times action packed winter, compared to the last two. I’m sure we will be communicating sooner rather than later! In the meantime, enjoy the festive flurries and the white Christmas!

Wishing everyone a Happy Holiday Season!

Happy New Year!

As the new year approaches, I wanted to thank all my loyal readers for their support, positive feedback and interactions during major weather events through the years! I enjoy looking back and reading all the comments and support! I also want to thank readers for their patience and understanding as the posts have diminished over the past year. This is due not for a lack of passion for the weather, but increasing work demands in my store. Many understand that the posts can be quite time consuming. Much of it is written off the top of my head. As always, I appreciate the kind support.

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter Forecast: Changeable! 11/25/24

Hello!! I hope everyone is well! Sorry it’s been a couple of months since my last post. Believe me, if I had the time to post more often, I would. Work commitments has certainly derailed the weekly postings. In addition, weather patterns became dormant for nearly three months since mid-August. I must say, timing was pretty good not being able to write my weekly weather posts. It just so happened the Boston area observed one of their driest falls on record! The dry spell finally ended with a two-day nor’easter last week which brought 1 to 3″ of much needed rain to the area!

Some highlights observed over this year’s version of autumn included: A rapidly developing drought, which caught everyone off-guard! Near seasonal temperatures. Aside from the exceptional warmth centered around Halloween and the first 10 days of November, autumn featured near seasonal temperatures across much of New England. Frosts and freezes were late once again but eventually arrived to everyone across the region. Logan Airport recorded its first freeze on November 14th, some 10 days behind schedule.

Fall foliage made a big comeback this year across the region. While the Boston area was shut out from fall foliage the past two years, colors returned this year, with brilliant colors arriving in late September and lasting throughout the month of October. A combination of cooler temperatures arriving the second half of August and the exceptionally dry weather, had the leaves changing early. In addition, the lack of any windstorms and rain helped keep the leaves on the trees the entire foliage season. I would say it was our best season in 6 or 7 years! The one downside of all the dry weather this fall was the exceptional number of wild/brush fires across the area…centered in northeast Mass. I have never seen so many red flag warnings posted in my entire life living here in New England! Glad that’s behind us.

As I mentioned earlier, most of the fall featured near seasonal temperatures. However, as we approached Halloween, a massive ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) began to build along the east coast. This sent temperatures soaring to record high levels. I believe it was the second warmest Halloween we ever observed. The warmth continued well into the first two weeks of November, with Boston observing its warmest day ever recorded for so late into the season on November 6th of 82 degrees! Since about the 10th, it’s been a step=down process in the temperature department this November. Around the 20th, the pattern took a decidedly cooler look. Aside from tomorrow, temperatures are expected to remain below average for the balance of the month.

With that being said, November will still go down in the books with having above normal temperatures across much of the region. How much above will still need to be ironed out. The first 10 days of the month averaged approximately 7 degrees above normal. We have chopped down the departure since, but I believe it will still end up being approximately 3 to 4 degrees above average at months end. This is important as I carefully monitor the temperature departure in November to help me assess the upcoming winter forecast. It’s not only temperatures. I also closely monitor storm tracks, precipitation and regions of cold air masses on a global level to help me evaluate the forecast.

In years past, this signal used to work like clockwork. However, with our changing climate, the signal has lost its credibility! I can no longer trust it as I used to! There were many years, going back 30 or even 40 years when a below average November would almost automatically mean above average snow coming to Boston. However, the past three below normal Novembers have proved fruitless! in 2019-20 winter Boston received 27″ of snow. In 2022-23 Boston received 12.4″. Last year was even worse, with only 9.8″ of snow being recorded! All these three years featured below normal November temperatures.  You can spin the data a million different ways and come up with several different conclusions. For instance, this November started out very warm but has since shifted to cool. I don’t think this is going to make a difference, but it could.

While the data for November is now inconclusive for a cold November, the same can’t be said for a warm November. My study shows, temperatures which averaged 3 degrees or more above average in November, featured less than average snow in Boston the following winter in nearly all cases. There were a couple of exceptions. I believe November of 1963 was warmer than average in Boston but ended up above average snow that winter. November of 1975 and 2016 were also well above average, and those winters featured near average snow. So, all is not lost!

This makes this year’s forecast is especially challenging. I see many forces battling against each other to gain the upper hand. With the past two winters being so benign, this makes this year especially volatile in my opinion. Anything and everything are on the table. After nearly two years of tranquil weather patterns, I believe this year is going to feature some interesting events. I was almost ready to write this winter completely off. However, a last second pattern change here in the second half of November brought colder temperatures, along with a two-day Nor’easter. While this storm delivered rain for us here in Boston, it brought close to 2ft of snow in the northeast part of Pennsylvania last Thursday and Friday. This storm stalled off the coast, bringing us a one two punch of heavy rain. Another coastal storm will bring more rain and interior snow on Thanksgiving Day this week! These storms showing up this time of the year can sometimes mean heavy snow in the preceding winter. If anything, it’s better to see these storms show up now, rather than nothing.

Aside from studying November temperature departures, there are many other signals I assess when compiling my winter forecast. Among some of the signals I closely monitor is the state of ENSO (El Nino Sothern Oscillation). This the area in the Southern Pacific Ocean where we observe the ocean temperatures whether it’s in El Nino (warm) or La Nina (cold). For this year, we were expecting a strengthening La Nina. This would have pretty much solidified a warmer than normal winter for the southern and eastern part of the country. However, La Nina sputtered and is now not expected to be as strong as previously thought. In fact, it has even trended more towards what they call La Nada, or neutral phase. These latest trends have significant impacts on our weather patterns coming up this winter. A weaker La Nina or neutral phase can allow other forces to play a more dominant role in our winter patterns. This could allow for high latitude blocking, aka the Greenland Block to flex its muscles, squashing the east coast ridge that has been so dominant the past two winters. This would allow cold blasts of arctic air to plunge southeastward towards the eastern part of the country. Other teleconnections such as a negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation), Positive PNA (Positive North America / western ridge), and the Polar Vortex to name a few all play a significant role in our upcoming winter patterns.

Important to note, other anti-winter signals remain at play. It’s all about what’s happening in the Pacific Ocean! A negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). A negative PNA pools cold water in the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest coast. This promotes troughing (cold & stormy) in the west, while ridging (warm & dry) takes hold in the east.

After compiling all these signals and factors together, here’s my best educated guess for my 2024-25 winter forecast. I am expecting this winter to feature some interesting events! For sure, Mother Nature is not fooling around with our upcoming winter patterns. As I mentioned earlier, anything and everything is on the table this winter. We are caught in the crossfire of dueling natural forces. Therefore, expect wild swings this winter from bitter cold temperatures, punctuated by mild tranquil periods. I’m expecting winter to come in with a bang, with cold weather to open December, possibly leading to our coldest December in 10 years around here. This should put everyone in the holiday spirit, bringing back memories of winters past. This will also allow excellent weather conditions for several outdoor winter activities we have not been able to enjoy in nearly a decade. This includes outdoor ice-skating, homemade outdoor hockey rinks, and local snow making at the Blue Hills ski area, and Wachusett Mountain! If the cold can sustain, ice-fishing can return when the ice becomes thick enough later in the winter.

I’m confident for this cold snap to last at least the first half of December. There are some signs the cold may ease heading towards Christmas, but that’s speculative at this moment. There may be a relaxation to the pattern heading into January. This may lead one to believe winter is over. However, I believe winter will return with a vengeance in February and linger into March next year. It’s tough calling for a colder than normal winter in this climate state we are in. However, with a fading La Nina and more neutral phase in the Pacific, this winter has a good of a chance than any to pull it off. Right now, I would say this winter will finish neutral to one degree below average in Boston. Colder to the north. This is a major change compared to previous years!

Now for the part everyone has been waiting for…how much SNOW are we going to receive this year?? Again, a very slippery slope here! Despite the more wintery feel this winter, I believe we are still in the midst of a low snow cycle. We are now in year 10 of the cycle, which began after the historic 2014-15 winter. In the last nine winters, seven have featured below average snowfall in Boston…some by a lot. These cycles can run anywhere from 10 to 14 years but can be random with no rhyme or reason. We are nearing the end, but I don’t believe this is the year it ends. With that being said, I do believe it snows more than the past couple of winters in Boston this year. It will feel and at times look like what a normal winter should look like. However, there are still complications for people who live along the coast east of I95. This is due to the warmer than normal oceans we continue to see off our coast. This may result in a lot of mixed precipitation events or snow turning to rain. For the city of Boston, I’m expecting between 30 and 40″ of snow this winter. This is significantly more than last winter, but still short of the average of 49″ at Logan Airport. For folks who live along the coast, I believe it’s going to take a while for snows to get cranking. While December is looking colder than average as a whole, it’s also looking quite dry. Nevertheless, I’m expecting several light snowfalls this December, with near average snow of between 7 and 10″ in Boston. As we head deeper into the winter, ocean temperatures should cool sufficiently enough to allow for more snow events closer to the coast. One large snowfall of 10″ or more cannot be ruled out this winter. Most likely in February the way I see it.

Many coastal towns and cities inside of I95 should experience similar fate to Boston but a bit snowier of course due to higher latitude and ocean temperatures slightly colder. I’m expecting between 40 and 50″ of snow in the seacoast region of New Hampshire, ranging to 50 to 60″ as one travels further up the coast to the Portland, Maine region. These are still below average by about 10 to 15″ in these locations.

Down on Cape Cod, expect warm ocean temperatures to hamper snow accumulations the first half of winter. However, more snow can be expected later in January and February as ocean temperatures cool. I am expecting between 10 and 20″ of snow this winter on Cape Cod. Heading off the Cape to Boston’s South Shore communities, between 20 and 30″ of snow can be expected.

I’m expecting above normal snowfall across the interior of New England this winter, including most of the ski resorts. Last winter was a rough one, especially around the holidays. Two late season massive snowstorms in March & April extended the season well into the spring last year. Folks who live across the interior of New England, north & west of I95, but especially north & west of I495 should experience above normal snowfall this winter, I’m expecting an active polar jet stream (cold) to at times phase with the sub-tropical jet stream (moisture) to bring plentiful snowfall to this part of New England. Higher elevations above 1500 ft will do even better, with plentiful snowfall this winter. The cold should be more sustained than last winter, so I am not expecting as many nuclear meltdowns.

As we all know, this is New England! This is my best educated guess at this time. Signals can suddenly change without notice. Mother Nature always has tricks up her sleeve. Just when you think you have all the answers, she changes the questions! It only takes one big storm to throw off the numbers. The coast is especially vulnerable to booms and busts this year. I highly doubt we have a third dud winter in a row in Boston, but anything is possible! It’s all about timing, If the cold air coincides with moisture at the optimal time, more snowfall can occur. Everyone can bump up by 10″ for the season if the storms take an offshore track, keeping us on the cold side. Conversely, we can all deduct 10″ or more if storms take a warmer inland track, leaving us on the warm side of the storm. To be on the safe side, I will update the winter forecast around the time of the winter solstice. Sometimes new patterns emerge around that time, and I can make some adjustments if needed.

Now time for your weekly outdoor activity and Thanksgiving travel forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Spectacular weather today and possibly Wednesday too. Weather goes downhill in a hurry on Thanksgiving Day and part of Black Friday.

Expect some increasing clouds overnight, Low temperatures should bottom out mainly in the mid to upper 30’s warmest in urban and coastal locations.

Watch for rain to move across the region tomorrow. I’m not expecting anything too heavy, but steady rainfall will arrive during the morning commute and will be ending during the evening commute. It will be somewhat milder with highs in the low to mid 50’s. As the storm passes through, expect winds to shift to the northwest tomorrow evening with rapidly clearing skies and colder temperatures overnight Tuesday.

Look for dry and sunny weather for the travel day Wednesday. It will feel like November with highs only in the mid 40’s with a brisk wind.

Here’s the latest for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Anything can happen on Thanksgiving Day around here. This year will be no exception. A poorly timed storm system will be approaching New England on Thanksgiving. This storm is expected to track just south of New England, keeping us on the colder side of the storm. Had it been a little colder, we all would have been looking at a White Thanksgiving. Expect mostly rain to begin early in the morning for areas south of I90 (Mass Pike). This rain should continue for most of the day with high temperatures near 40 degrees. For areas north of the Mass Pike including up into southern New Hampshire, there will be a mixture of snow, sleet and rain which may linger for several hours. This could result in some slippery travel. Please advise. If you live or are travelling anywhere in northern New England from a line from Rutland, Vermont, to Lebanon, N.H. to Concord points north, expect a snowy Thanksgiving Day with several inches of wet snow to even perhaps up to a half a foot of snowfall. This includes much of the state of Maine with the exception of the immediate coast where mainly rain will fall. Not a major storm, but a disruptive one for sure.

Precipitation may linger into Thursday night. Any areas that saw a mix may flip to some light snow. Areas that saw rain will continue seeing rain, especially along the coast. Temperatures will fall to the low to mid 30’s. Watch for slippery travel conditions, regardless of if it’s wet or white.

Any lingering rain or snow should be moving off the coast by midday Friday. Expect mainly cloudy weather for the balance of the afternoon. It will be a chilly, raw day with highs mainly in the low 40’s.

Sunny & dry weather to follow the storm this weekend. Saturday will see highs in the low 40’s. It turns colder on Sunday, with highs mainly in the upper 30’s. Dry weather should persist for much of the first week of December. One thing you will notice is a change to winter-like temperatures, Get the winter gear ready as highs will only be in the 20’s and 30’s next week, with lows in the teens and twenties. Looking way ahead, a clipper type system may bring some light snow next weekend, but that’s just a chance at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now my friends! Please feel free to ask any questions or leave a comment. Now that we are entering winter, I will need to be on the watch for any winter weather that may threaten the region. My next post is scheduled for Monday, December 23rd. I will be updating this winter forecast at that time. If any winter storms or severe weather is imminent, I will be sure to update everyone through social media accounts or my blog. In the meantime, changeable is not all bad. It can also mean warm too!

~Wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! ~

Stay safe & be well.

Pete

Early Fall? 9/23/24

Hello! Happy fall! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It’s been a while since my last post, so there’s a lot to discuss! Unfortunately, my time prohibits a lengthy discussion. Growing work commitments and general lack of eventful weather has taken the steam out of my consistent posts. Nonetheless, I continue to closely follow global weather patterns and their impacts. Twenty-nine straight sunny & dry days beginning in mid-August did not inspire any late breaking weather posts!

My last post was a few days before the Fourth of July! Yes, we have crossed into a brand-new season since then. As mentioned above, most if not all of this period featured very few if any weather events. If you enjoy active weather with frequent changes, this has not been the pattern for you. In fact, this benign weather can be traced back nearly two years now. We now have observed two straight non-winters, and quite possibly a third on its way! But I’m getting ahead of myself!

After nearly two years of lackluster weather patterns, there was finally something to talk about this past weekend. A slow-moving early season Nor’easter developed southeast of New England last week. At first, computer models were keeping the bulk of this storm out at sea. However, as the week progressed, it was becoming more and more apparent that this storm was going to retrograde back towards the coast, bringing with it wind & rain. What computer models were struggling with was just how much? Many models continued to keep the heaviest rainfall offshore.

After weeks of dry weather, Mother Nature began to take control of the situation. Northeast winds freshened along the coast, as bands of moisture began to pinwheel in off of the ocean. It was questionable whether Boston would be included in the heavy rain or not. I was watching the radar closely as the band began to encroach the coast late Friday night. By Saturday morning, soaking rains pushed back as far as I495 with gusty northeasterly winds. As miserable of a day as it was, we were long overdue for a good soaking.

Yet, Boston was far removed from the brunt of the storm. The bullseye for this particular Nor’easter was felt on Cape Cod, where between 5 and 8″ of rain fell. There were even isolated official reports of up to 11″ plus fell in the Chatham, Harwich region. In addition to the rain, northeast gales whipped up the ocean, resulting in moderate beach erosion and pockets of coastal flooding. I was in contact with my friend Laz in Chatham, and he confirmed the deluge as well as some structural damage and boats washing ashore. There were other reports and video of waves crashing over sea walls along the Massachusetts coast. I must say, for a non-tropical system here in September, it was quite impressive.

Before the storm, we enjoyed 29 straight days without any measurable precipitation here in Boston. What a stretch of weather! It just doesn’t get any better than that! After nearly 18 months of non-stop rains, the spigot was finally turned off! I have always said, New England experiences different climates at any given time from all across the country, if not the world! This time around I believe the climate was similar to San Diego, California! Who could argue? Day after day of sunny skies, low humidity, and temperatures in the low 80’s.

With an approaching La Nina, I believe drier weather patterns will be evolving heading into this winter. This doesn’t mean no rain for a month straight, just not the flooding rains we have been experiencing since last summer through this past winter. In fact, we have another rainy day coming up this Thursday.

With autumn beginning yesterday, many friends and family members have been commenting on the early splashes of fall foliage. Indeed, late August and early September offered perfect conditions for the leaves to start thinking fall! The Boston area has not seen a proper foliage season for several years now. Last summer and fall were exceptionally wet with very warm & humid temperatures. This allowed the trees to continue receiving plenty of nutrition deep into the fall. The warm & humid weather tricked the trees into thinking it was still summer. Therefore, the trees remained green all the way through October. A sudden freeze in November ended the party, but by then it was too late. The leaves froze, turned brown and fell off the trees. Awful!

Will this year be different? So far, so good, but I have my concerns. It started out perfect, with a sudden drop in temperatures in mid-August. This brought clear, cool nights with very low humidity. These conditions continued deep into September, with sunny, warm days and clear cool nights. Once again, low dew point temperatures allowed temperatures to drop into the 40’s and 50’s even in Boston. This, along with the exceptionally dry weather, had trees changing colors earlier than normal.

Folks, it’s all relative to be honest. What’s early this year, was actually normal 40 years ago. Back then, the first chill of autumn was felt nearly every year come September. Leaves would begin to change in September, with peak fall colors around Columbus Day weekend around the Boston area. With oceans warming and an overall warming climate, peak fall foliage is now a good two weeks later than what it used to be around here. In addition, colors have not been as bright. Black tar disease and warmer temperatures have left many trees with muted or non-existent colors.

What about this year? So far, colors are running ahead of schedule up north. This too could be as a result of the extremely dry conditions up in that region. While we had rain over the weekend, there was no precipitation up north. One thing that is lacking is some chilly temperatures. If we had just a few nights down into the 30’s it would set the leaves on fire! I do see some temperatures getting down into the 40’s this weekend. This may be just cool enough to active the tree to change colors. Right now, if you plan on heading for a fall foliage trip, you will need to head up to the White Mountains of New Hampshire, and the Green Mountains of Vermont. By this weekend, I’m expecting about 50% leaf change up there. It may be the following weekend when peak foliage arrives up there. With the dry conditions, leaves can change quickly without notice!

For us down here in southern New England, we still have a way to go. As encouraging as it was to see some early fall colors, I’m growing somewhat concerned heading into October. La Nina years can be extremely volatile. At this point, I’m optimistic for a brighter foliage season than past several years. If we continue to observe foliage changing earlier, we could end up with peak colors arriving in Boston the last week of October leading up to Halloween. As long as temperatures don’t warm up too much, and some chilly nights arrive in October. This would be a welcome change from mid-November the past couple of years!

Some La Nina’s bring late season summer temperatures well into November. Other La Nina’s bring an October chill, a severe windstorm or early snow! Does everyone remember October 2011? This was a La Nina year, which brought the historic Halloween Blizzard to interior New England. That winter turned out being one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record! I’m not saying this is going to happen, but I’m going to keep a close eye on October. We have had some strange weather in October in recent years. I could envision early season cold meeting up with a tropical system moving up the coast. This could result in a early season snowfall for interior New England. Computer models have been all over the place. For two months in a row NOAA monthly outlooks have been placing too much emphasis on warmer than normal temperatures in New England. August finished slightly below average, and September is set to finish neutral, or very close to seasonal average.

For what it’s worth, NOAA’s winter outlook is calling for well above average temperatures this winter for much of the eastern part of the United States. This includes us here in New England. Other reliable seasonal forecasts from such models as the ECMWF, known as the European is calling for a blow torch winter with hardly any snowfall for December, January and February. If taken verbatim, this would imply one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record for Boston this year. This is coming off two of the warmest and least snowy winters on record, winters 2022-23 and 2023-24 here in Boston. These were absolute duds!

The outlook for this winter remains uncertain to say the least! At first, I was in agreement with the non-winter outlook. But the more I continue to evaluate the big picture, the more skeptical I become. By non-winter I would be talking about snowfall accumulations of 10″ or less. This would be pitiful. Many would argue accumulations of 20″ or less would qualify as a non-winter. At this point, we would be in uncharted territory. We already broke a record last winter for having back-to-back winters in Boston with less than 20″ accumulations. That had never happened in recorded history. To have a third winter with less than 20″ of snowfall in Boston would be truly unprecedented. I suppose anything is possible these days. I will say this, recent computer models are showing global ocean temperatures beginning to cool. Could this have an impact on our climate this winter? It’s possible computer models are not factoring this latest trend. As we head deeper into autumn, I will update everyone on my latest thinking for our upcoming winter season. At the very least, my winter forecast will be posted on November 25th.

Before the weekly forecast, here’s a quick summer recap. I would give my forecast a B-. What started out so strong, ended up fizzling in the end! My initial forecast called for between 14 and 17 ninety-degree days. After new guidance and a torrid June heat wave, I increased that number to 17 to 20.  Things looked promising after a hotter than normal June, followed by a much hotter than normal July. However, after a hot first week of August, hot temperatures abruptly ended. Overall, it was a much hotter than normal summer across much of New England. When we look back at the raw numbers to this summer in history, it will be very deceiving. Boston’s Logan Airport officially recorded only 12 ninety-degree days! This is actually two less than normal! However, when one looks at observations from other locations, even locations within the city neighborhoods, many places observed 20+ 90-degree days! This was due to a very light and feeble sea-breeze which occurred on nearly a daily basis at Logan Airport, holding temperature just below 90 there. I believe there were at least a half dozen days of high temperature at Logan of 89 degrees! Precipitation was on point! I called for a much better summer than last summer. Dryer, but still with episodes of rain to keep the lawns and gardens happy. I also called for a much drier second half of summer and which indeed happened.

Now for our weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I would give this week a 7 out of 10. Big improvements as we head into Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

After a mainly cloudy day, expect clouds to linger overnight, with low temperatures falling into the low to mid 50’s. Not much difference between urban and rural areas tonight due to the cloud cover.

With a persistent onshore flow, expect low clouds and patchy areas of fog for your Tuesday and Wednesday. This does not mean it will be cloudy all of the time. Expect the most clouds to be during the morning hours, with breaks of sunshine developing late morning and into the afternoon. With a northeast wind, temperatures should remain cool, with highs only in the mid 60’s across the region. This is about 5 degrees cooler than normal.

A warm front will be approaching the region later Wednesday. Expect clouds to increase after any early sun. There actually may be some renegade showers first thin in the morning, especially north and west of Boston. Some computer models are showing this. Overall, it should be a mainly dry day.

As the storm system and associated warm from approaches New England, expect rain to overspread the region later Wednesday evening. Normally, this type of system would bring just a few showers and move north of the region. However, there is a robust -NAO in place, aka the Greenland Block. This is going to slow down the system and allow more precipitation to develop than what normally would. Therefore, expect a rather wet day for your Thursday, with generally a half inch to one inch of rainfall.

High pressure should begin to build down from Canada on Friday and suppress this complex system off to our south. This should allow for some clearing skies building n for your Friday, with temperatures remaining in the 60’s.

Strong high pressure should continue to protect our region throughout the upcoming weekend. At this point, I’m optimistic that we should enjoy dry conditions, with temperatures starting off cool, but possibly eclipsing 70 degrees with sunshine on Sunday. I hope this all works out! Many folks are planning on enjoying outdoor fall activities including hiking, camping, apple picking and fall festivals!

Well, that’s about it for now my friends! Honestly, I do not know when my next post will be written. I made time today, but who knows in the coming weeks. I can promise you at least one post during October, then of course the winter forecast on November 25th. If time permits, I will write more. I appreciate your continued support and understanding! If a severe storm threatens, I will be sure to update everyone through social media. In the meantime, wherever your travels may bring you, take time to enjoy what many believe is our best season here in New England!

Be safe and thank you for reading!

Pete