Touch of Fall? 8/21/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! I thought Saturday was going to be a better day, but it actually turned out cloudy and cool. Sunday was better, with mainly sunny skies and warm temperatures. However, as been the case the entire summer, the sky had a hazy look to it due to Canadian wildfire smoke. We just can’t catch a break this summer. If it’s not torrential downpours, it’s smoky skies from the fires up in Canada. Now after Friday, we can add tornadoes to this bizarre summer season! My cousin April from California also reported a 5.1 earthquake in the town of Ojai, where her brother and sister lives. On top of that, they had a tropical storm warning from once Hurricane Hillary! So things could be worse!

*I appreciate everyone’s understanding during this busy period. I hope to resume regular posts this fall.

Torrential downpours, smoky skies from wildfires, zero heat waves…and now we can add a tornado outbreak to the summer 2023 resume! If you haven’t heard, a strong cold front crossing southern New England developed a strong line of severe thunderstorms last Friday morning. This front was pushing into a environment which had significant instability and an unusual high amount of wind shear for our area. The result was a severe weather outbreak which extended from the suburbs of Providence, Rhode Island, northeast into Massachusetts which included the towns of North Attleborough, Stoughton, then northeast through Weymouth. The sky turned incredibly dark with loud thunder here in West Roxbury, but fortunately the worst of the storm passed just to my south.

In this swath, there were 4 confirmed tornado touchdowns, all of which significant damage occurred. The tornado in Johnston, Rhode Island was a an EF2 with 115 mph winds! The others were EF0 and EF1 which featured winds of between 85 and 105 mph. There was even authentic video footage of a tornado crossing Rt295 in Rhode Island! This tornado actually lifted a car up in the air and spun it several times before dumping it back onto the highway! Terrifying! It was a miracle the woman driving the car escaped with only minor injuries. I’m sure she would make for a great guest speaker at a local weather conference someday!

Massachusetts averages approximately two tornadoes per year. So far, this year there have been 7 confirmed twisters!

I anticipated a wetter summer this year compared to last, but had no idea it was going to be this wet! Many cities and towns across southern New England are closing in on either a top 5 wettest summer or wettest summer ever recorded! Many friends and families are crying uncle, and want to know what are the factors behind this miserable summer!

I wish I had a clear answer to let everyone know! However, the only clear answer I can say is that…it’s complicated! With all that being said, I could see trouble brewing from way back last February. While the west was getting crushed with a record cold & snowy winter, the east coast was basking in one of the warmest and least snowiest winters on record. Parts of interior New England and around the Great Lakes were somewhere in between. Mild yes, but some areas received plenty of snowfall! This is classic La Nina patterns where interior locations receive much more snowfall than coastal regions.

For people who live along the I95 corridor from Virginia to Boston, we were left out of the fun, with winter barely showing up. I feel somewhat fortunate living in Boston compared to cities further south down the coast. At least we saw SOME snow here in Boston. It wasn’t much, but there was enough to shovel a few times. Further south in cities such as New York, Philadelphia and Washington D.C. these places only received a trace to 2″ of snow the entire winter!

Regardless, it was the winter that wasn’t. The only exception I could see was the freak of nature cold snap that swept through New England on February 4th. Temperatures plummeted in Boston to their coldest temperatures since 1957. Low temperatures in the city ranged from minus 10 to minus 12 below zero. Windchill was ridiculously low at minus 38 degrees below zero. Almost unheard of, even for Boston. Even though temperatures warmed up quickly following this cold snap, the damage had been done. With readings this low, peach crops in New England were destroyed. In addition, rose bushes and hydrangea blooms were either severely delayed or killed by the cold.

While all this was happening, the atmosphere was undergoing some major changes. A phenomenon called “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” or SST began to develop during February, which works in tandem with Greenland Blocking. I could see this beginning to take shape in February and March and mentioned my concerns for the upcoming summer. It was too late to bring heavy snow to Boston, but could foul up our spring and early summer patterns. Timing could not of been any worse. While we made it through April and May with pleasant spring weather, things began to unravel as we headed towards June. High latitude blocking became established over Greenland. What this is in simple terms, is high pressure building across Greenland to our north. This buckles the jet stream, forcing it further south than normal, and keeps us cool & unsettled.

This allowed troughs of low pressure to begin charging towards New England from southern Canada. These troughs interacted with a active sub tropical jet stream which injected energy into cold fronts leading to a very active energized cold frontal passages this summer. These cold fronts have brought well above normal amounts of rain this summer and kept the heat suppressed t our south. I have mentioned several times this summer, our winter pattern finally arrived in June! Unfortunately for us, these cold fronts kept pin wheeeling down from southern Canada beginning in June, and have not stopped since! Hence, the blog title “Wheel of Miss Fortune” made back in July.

Why did this happen is unknown. What I do know is Mother Nature tends to balance things out. We were due for a correction of 90 degree days & hot summers. It hasn’t been a cool summer, we just haven’t received as many 90 degree days as we normally do. However, the past two summers we received nearly double what we normally see. Our climate is not Washington D.C. here. It was similar to Washington D.C. the past couple summers. This year, it’s been similar to somewhere from northern Maine. We typically receive approximately 14 ninety degree days in an average summer. Last year we received 21 of them, and 24 the year before. This year, we have only observed 4 so far, with no heat waves recorded in Boston. There has been a couple heat waves in the suburbs, but not at Logan Airport. For the record, I was expecting approximately 14 days this summer, but did mention it was going to be a much different summer than last year, with more rain to contend with.

Now, after a very unsettled summer, I’m talking fall already! Yes, I am. Hard to believe September is right around the corner! I mentioned in my last post, if this pattern were to somehow persist into the fall and winter, we could be looking at a historic type of winter depending upon many other factors yet to be determined. However, there are some early signs pointing towards a much different winter that we saw last year. We shall see in the coming weeks.

Hate to break the bad news to everyone, but we are now just one month away from the autumnal equinox. While it’s still officially summer, meteorological autumn begins in less than two weeks. The days are beginning to shorten, and even some leaves are beginning to change in some spots. Could an early autumn be on the way this year? I believe I say this nearly every year only to have an endless summer keep going through what seems like Thanksgiving in recent years. Yes, there are some signs pointing to a cooler regime this year. In my opinion, it’s all dependent on how strong the emerging El Nino becomes. If it strengthens too much, summer time warmth may linger deep into fall as it has in recent years.

However, if it does not, and other factors come into play, we may see a traditional autumn here in New England, with cool to mild days and cool crisp nights. If this pattern were to unfold, we could see a spectacular fall foliage season this year, especially here in southern New England which has been pretty much a dud past couple seasons.

In the short term, a cold front passing through the region this afternoon is going to introduce yet another cool and dry air mass to New England this week. Because the days are beginning to shorten, temperatures can drop a few degrees more than a month or two ago. Therefore, cool air masses are beginning to feel more fall-like, especially during the longer nights. If you wake up early enough the next few days, you’ll know what I’m talking about! Many locations, perhaps even into the city of Boston temperatures will drop in to the 50’s, with crisp feel at sunrise.

How about beach and boating this week? Expect changeable conditions this week. If you like them cool, best beach days appear to be Tuesday and Wednesday, then again on Sunday. Gusty winds will make it feel chilly, but protected areas in the sun will be warm enough. Boaters beware for shifting winds to the northeast later this evening into tomorrow, with choppy seas especially east facing locations. Wednesday and Thursday should be okay for boating. Friday looks inclement once again, with showers likely which may linger into early Saturday. Sunday looks fair but brisk, with more northeast winds.

Now time for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80’s. An approaching cold front will spark off some scattered evening showers and possibly a thunderstorm in some locations, especially south of Boston. Not everyone will receive a shower, but the potential is there in case your plans bring you outdoors.

After the front clears, watch for clearing skies towards midnight, and cooler temperatures to sweep in overnight. But morning, dew point temperatures will be down in the low 50’s, with air temperatures near 60.

Tuesday and Wednesday should feature partly sunny skies along with a bit of a breeze. Temperatures will struggle to warm up into the mid to upper 70’s. Watch for clear and chilly weather at night with lows mainly in the 50’s both Tuesday and Wednesday nights. There will be a crisp feel to the air!

Expect a sunny start on Thursday but with clouds increasing during the afternoon. Temperatures may make a run at 80 depending upon how much sun we receive. Rain will be moving in sometime overnight Thursday and continue into Friday. At this point, Friday looks to be rainy, as leftover moisture from Hillary gets absorbed into an approaching cold front. It does not look torrential at this moment, but I would keep an eye on it just in case. It seems every front approaching the Boston area this summer suddenly picks up steam, and overachieves with expexting rainfall amounts. The fact that this could have leftover tropical moisture infused in it should raise some red flags. Some towns this summer such as Andover have really taken it to the chin, with multiple rounds of flooding.

Latest computer models guidance keeps this system progressive. Therefore, it appears that this system will be pushing off the coast in time for this weekend. However, much like last Saturday, there still could be some lingering moisture in the form of clouds and perhaps some light showers on Saturday. It will also be cooler. As of right now it doesn’t look like an optimal beach day, but I would monitor future forecasts just in case. It could also clear out and be a sunny day. Another push of cool and dry air will arrive on Sunday, with a brisk northeast wind and high temperatures more like September than August. Expect temperatures to be in the low 70’s with mainly sunny skies. An offshore hurricane next week may continue the brisk northeast winds and cooler than normal temperatures along the coast to round out the month of August.

One other interest of note. Keep an eye out for the second full month this month, also known as the “Blue Moon” on August 31st. If an offshore storm comes close enough with strong onshore winds, it may be enough to monitor coastal flooding along east facing locations. Something to monitor as we move forward.

Well, that’s about it for now my friends! My next blog is scheduled for Monday, September 4th, Labor Day. Depending upon my plans and weather conditions, this may or may not happen. If a stormy weather threatens, I will do my best to update everyone. If fair weather patterns persist, I may wait until the following week. Whatever day it falls on, you can be sure I’m following the what’s going on with our weather! In my next update, I plan on posting my preliminary fall forecast, as well as my first fall foliage outlook! I told you fall was arriving quickly! In the meantime, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, enjoy the remaining time we have of summer!

~Happy Birthday to my niece, Alex!~ August 28th

Thanks for reading! & stay safe!

Pete

Mid-Summer Break! 7/31/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! As has been the case most of this summer, the weekend featured rain…and a lot of it! The wild weather began last Thursday, when a seemingly benign frontal passage suddenly intensified over the Boston area, dumping torrential downpours in a short period of time. A brick chimney was struck by lightning, toppling it to the ground in Boston’s South End neighborhood. It was a miracle nobody was severely injured or killed.

Friday cleared and turned into a beautiful beach day, with sunny skies and temperatures reaching the low 90’s. Saturday started off with cloudy skies, but some hazy sun broke through late morning into the early afternoon. Some communities experienced a quick moving downpour around midday, which quickly evaporated when it hit the hot pavement. This was just a prelude to the main event. Later in the afternoon, the skies turned black, as a strong cold front approached the area. I checked the radar, and saw an intense squall line approaching. Torrential downpours arrived, along with gusty winds and frequent lightning & thunder.

According to the National Weather Service Boston, the squall line produced an EF1 tornado in the town of Foxborough some 30 miles south of Boston. This was enough to frighten many folks and cause considerable tree damage as winds swirled to 105 MPH on the Fujita tornado scale. As the storm swirled over Boston, it produced record rainfall at Logan Airport, when just over 3″ was recorded in just a little over one hour! This was good enough to make this the rainiest July 29th ever recorded in Boston! This storm also help catapult us into the second rainiest July’s on record with close to 10 1/2″ of rain. This beats out the incredibly wet July from just two years ago!

Are we having fun yet? The seemingly endless barrage of rainfall this summer is the exact opposite of last summer in every way. While storms fizzled on their approach to Boston last summer, this summer they’re intensifying on their approach. This had led to the frequent flash flood warnings and record amounts of rainfall. A cruel joke played by Mother Nature, or just evening the score? Of course there’s no clear cut answer to that question…but the results are uncanny.

As I mentioned earlier in the season, I was confident a rainier summer was on the way, but had no idea to what extent. I also mentioned many times the factors keeping our winter so mild & benign, collapsed at the start of June. From that point forward, it’s been a full on assault, with a winter pattern here in summer! How can this happen, you ask? Expert meteorologists may know how it happened, but nobody really knows why it happened. Mother Nature is a proponent for equality…so there’s that!

So here we are, at the astronomic midway point to summer. From here on, days will begin to get noticeably shorter as autumn approaches. Some may even feel a touch of autumn at dawn the next several mornings. Before you pull out the bow & arrows, I have some good news for everyone!  After a month long siege of dew point temperatures greater than 65 degrees, we’re finally getting a break! Eric Fisher, WBZ meteorologist says Boston experienced its longest stretch of high humidity levels on record!

Though it’s been muggy, it hasn’t necessarily been hot. I measure how hot the summer is by how many 90 degree days we observe. Of course, it’s all relative. What may seem like pleasant summer weather to some, is an absolute steam bath for others! Many people could care less whether we hit 90 or 89…it’s felt hot! And it has been a warmer than normal July. Temperatures are running about two degrees warmer than average this month. This balances out the two degrees below average of June. So as of today, we’re running about even for the summer. In a typical summer, Boston would receive approximately 14 ninety degree days. So far we have only seen three days this summer! Yes, this is much less than past several years!

My final forecast called for between 14 and 17 days of 90 degree days in Boston this summer. With it being August 1st tomorrow, I would need a late rally to see that number verify. Yet, there’s still time. I recall a few years back September featured five 90 degree days with a bonafide mid-month heat wave! With a strong El Nino incoming, odds would favor a warmer than normal September this year. However, long range computer models are somewhat at odds with each other, seeing a cooler September on the way.

I mentioned earlier I have some good news to pass along for those who love summer. While we’re on the backside of summer, this does not mean summer is over! We still have a solid 6 weeks of summer weather. Unfortunately, long range computer models have become less reliable in these changing weather patterns. In La Nina years, you could count on computer models being more accurate predicting warmer and drier patterns. However, now that we have entered El Nino, weather patterns have turned more volatile, as the mean storm track has migrated more towards the east coast.

The new monthly outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center for August points to cooler than normal weather persisting here in New England. This would imply the trough (cool & wet) that has persisted across New England beginning in June is going to continue into August. Does this mean no more hot weather? No, it does not. I’m still expecting brief bursts of heat this month, but with the emphasis on brief. I highly doubt we see anything like August of last year, when Boston observed its hottest July and August on record. I believe we received 11 ninety degree days last August, even a 100 degree reading! Right now, I’m expecting temperatures to average slightly below normal in much of New England this August, with fewer 90 degree readings than in recent years. Right now, I’m going with 3 or 4 days, but I can easily see even less. So far, it’s been a very wet and somewhat cool summer. If August turns out cooler and wetter than normal, it will mark the exclamation point for this summer! It began with smoky skies form wildfires in Canada, then the rain, fog and humidity!

As for rainfall, let’s just keep the trend going from previous patterns this summer and call for wetter than normal patterns to continue. Not as much rain as July, but still more than the typical 3.5″ we typically receive. I will say this, if this pattern were to continue into this winter, it could be one for the ages. However, if you love snow, these patterns are best when they establish themselves just before winter arrives sometime in November is best. In our case, the pattern may be raining itself out before winter, leaving us with another tranquil winter with not much storm activity. Who knows? There’s no rhyme or reason to it!

Now for your weekly beach & boating forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Temperatures should hover near to slightly below seasonal levels, mainly between 76 and 82 degrees. There will be a string of nice beach days running from today through Thursday. Don’t be shocked if there’s an isolated sprinkle or shower, but I do not see any torrential downpours as we saw last week during this time period. Thereafter, a cold front will be approaching New England on Friday. At this time, there will be an uptick in humidity, and there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms crossing the region throughout the day.

This front should be progressive so Saturday should turn into a nice day for the beach. Sunday is iffy at this point. Computer models have been waffling with a system to our south. If I were a betting man, I would say this storm will likely track closer to New England and bring increasing clouds and easterly winds, at the very least, If it tracks any closer we would need to introduce the chance of showers. Would not surprise me in the very least the way things have gone this summer. At the same time, do not cancel any plans until this time frame come into focus. It still could change, and be a decent day. Boating looks good through Thursday. A cold front will be approaching the waters on Friday, and with it will bring showers & thunderstorms. An offshore storm on Sunday will need to be monitored for choppy seas and rain. Boating is not recommended on Friday or Sunday.

Time for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. The biggest change this week will be a break from the relentless humidity we experienced in July. Expect dew point temperatures to hover in the 50’s, which is very comfortable for this time of the year.

Expect partly sunny skies the rest of your Monday. Temperatures will be warm, with reading a couple degrees either side of 80. There may be a brief evening sprinkle or shower in the area, but I wouldn’t let that stop you from taking an evening walk in the park or neighborhood.

Skies will clear overnight, with temperatures falling into the 50’s in rural areas, to low 60’s in urban locations.

Tuesday will be similar to today, partly sunny with highs between 76 and 82 degrees. Tuesday night will be fair and cool. Comfortable for sleeping.

Wednesday could be the pick of the week! Expect plenty of sun and slightly warmer temperatures. A perfect beach day! Temperatures will mainly be between 80 to 82 degrees.

While Thursday may begin with plenty of sun, watch for increasing cloudiness during the day. It will be warmer a slightly more humid, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80’s.

A front will be approaching New England Thursday night into Friday. Right now computer models are showing a line of showers & thunderstorms crossing the region. It will continue to be on the warm side, with highs in the low to mid 80’s. Keep in mind, I’m not expecting a complete wash-out, just expect some rain and possibly downpours at some point during the day. There may even be some breaks of sun from time to time.

After this system moves offshore, expect partly sunny skies on Saturday with highs in the mid 80’s. This would be a change in the persistent pattern of rainy Saturday’s!

As I mentioned above, Sunday is iffy at this point. I would love to say we’re in the clear with beautiful weather continuing. However, the trough will be located near the east coast. It does appear as if another piece of energy will dive towards the coast and try to develop another storm system. Earlier, it looked like this storm would really ramp up and bring a washout to the region. Then this backed off yesterday yielding a fine day. However, latest computer runs are slowly trying to bring this system closer to New England. Therefore, I’m going with increasing clouds on Sunday, if not totally cloudy. Winds could turn easterly and bring in cool, damp weather. If the storm tracks closer than currently anticipated, then indeed a washout would be the likely outcome. If it tracks further offshore, then fair weather would continue from Saturday. If you have any outdoor plans, I would monitor the forecast closely later this week, as changes are likely to occur.

Well that’s about it for now, friends! My next post is scheduled for August 14th. In that update I will take a look at our weather patterns for the remainder of August, and take a peek into the beginning of September. It will be interesting whether we see a cooler fall this year, or will the warmth continue as it has for several years now. I will also take a look at our hurricane season. So far, fairly quiet. In the meantime, it’s nice to receive a break from the humidity…now how about the rain?

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Waves of Rain….7/10/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a half and half weekend, weather-wise. Saturday continued the streak of summery days from last week, with sunny skies and very warm to hot temperatures. Hottest weather has been over the interior, with some communities recording 4 straight days of 90 degree heat! It’s been a different story along the immediate coast, with pesky sea-breezes preventing temperatures from reaching 90. In fact, Logan Airport has yet to register a 90 degree day this summer! Travel 5 miles inland and many neighborhoods and towns observed their first 90 degree days of the summer. This happens in the winter too. It’s colder away from the ocean in the winter. In the summer, it’s always hotter. Sunday featured more clouds, but no rain was reported in eastern Massachusetts. Again, it was a different story across western Massachusetts and up in Vermont, where a stalled frontal boundary brought flooding rains to this region.

After a glorious Memorial Day weekend, this summer has been a huge bust so far! Memorial weekend?? Can anyone even remember what the weather was like that weekend? Let me refresh your memory. From a few days out, it was looking like another Memorial Day weekend washout. However, a last second shift brought three days of deep blue skies and brilliant sunshine to much of the region. It wasn’t particularly hot, but it was warm enough to enjoy being outdoors. Little did we know what lied ahead!

A couple weeks ago I spoke of the Wheel of Miss-Fortune. People keep asking me what is this wheel I’m talking about, and when is it going to stop raining! This was a term Barry Burbank used to explain an upper level low pressure stalled over the northeastern states spinning counter-clockwise. Once these low pressure systems became established, they would pin wheel periods of inclement weather across eastern Massachusetts. In early spring, this could be anything from periods of wet snow/sleet showers to plain rain showers, fog and drizzle. In later spring, thunderstorms could occur with small hail. This is due to a pocket of very cold air aloft associated with these upper level low pressure systems, resulting in the inclement weather including small hail sometimes.

Typically, these upper level low pressure systems stick around for approximately 3 to 5 days, then lift north into the Canadian Maritimes. No harm no foul, right? Not this year! Once June arrived, our long awaited winter pattern finally began to settle in. Computer models kept showing that it was coming, only to keep pushing back to February, March, then April…but it never arrived. May was a stellar month, with hardly no rain, and temperatures a couple of degrees above average. Many believed the long awaited winter pattern was gone, and we dodged a bullet. Just as the calendar flipped to June, all the fun & games started up.

Oh boy. The Greenland Block suddenly became established, the North Atlantic Oscillation suddenly went negative. High pressure began building across the western part of the country with warm & dry weather, complete opposite of this past winter. Shortly thereafter, deep troughs of low pressure (cool & wet) began digging into the eastern part of the U.S. especially here in New England. Cold front after cold front diving in from eastern Canada towards New England. Rather than sweeping off the coast, these fronts would stall across New England, bringing weeks of inclement weather to our region. Yes, the long awaited winter pattern finally showed up at the beginning of June, and has yet to relinquish its grip!

I feel the frustration! The weather over the fourth was less than ideal. Though some places lucked out and had a few decent stretches, Cape Cod in particular, other places were washed out Sunday through Tuesday. What awful timing! Many fireworks were delayed or canceled. It appeared the worst of the weather had passed Boston. Prospects were looking up for the Pops concert and fireworks extravaganza on the esplanade. Just when you thought they were in the clear, a fog bank rolled in off the ocean and essentially destroyed the fireworks show. I had mentioned I was expecting more rain this summer than last year, but this has become ridiculous. So far, it’s been the exact opposite of last summer. Last summer, we couldn’t by a drop of rain. This summer, rain always seems to find its way into the forecast.

My summer forecast called for a reversal to this pattern come mid-July. Well, we are nearly at mid-July, and so far I do not see any end to our waves of rain this summer. In my last post I mentioned the summer could go one of two ways. I picked the optimistic hotter and dryer route, but now I’m having my doubts. It’s July 10th, and Boston has yet to register a 90 degree day. My forecast called for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days this summer.

Since the ground is water-logged with so much rainfall, it’s going to take an awfully hot air-mass to evaporate the saturated ground. Once that happens, a ridge of high pressure needs to build near Bermuda, also known as the “Bermuda High”. This high pressure was large and well established last summer, sending multiple heat waves up into New England. This high pressure was so strong, it prevented cold fronts from entering New England, keeping us hot & dry for the majority of the summer.

Yet, there’s still reason to be optimistic. I mentioned similarities to summer 2015 to this one. In that summer, Boston didn’t see its first 90 degree reading until July 14th. The city ended up with 14 ninety degree days that summer. An impressive recovery. Similar to this summer, we had a strengthening El Nino that year. This resulted in a record warm autumn, with well above normal temperatures the theme through December. In fact, the region saw low 70’s temperatures on Christmas Day that year! However, the warm endgame to summer and fall is not set in stone. El Ninos come in different flavors. No two are exactly the same. We have to watch this carefully moving into late summer and early fall. Depending on the strength and position, weak El Nino’s have historically brought snowy winters to Boston. However, if El Nino strengthens too much, it typically brings warm winters to Boston with below average snow.

The two summers may have featured El Ninos, but something feels different to me this year. Boston finally broke an outrageous streak of 17 straight months recording above normal temperatures. Despite record warm ocean temperatures, June ended up 2 degrees below average here in Boston. Big question moving forward, will the hot weather patterns re-establish itself moving forward later this month into August? As much as I want my forecast to verify, it appears I may of used my “warm weather” card one too many times! After several way above average summers in a row, it seems that maybe Boston is do for a “correction” this summer with how many 90 degree days we observe. Boston typically receives 14 ninety degree days on average each summer. Last summer we saw 21 and the summer before that a whopping 24 days!

What do I think? I’m afraid this rainy pattern wants to continue for the rest of July and into August. I do believe it’s going heat up, so we should start seeing more 90’s showing up even into Boston. However, it’s going to take a very hot stretch to reach average this year in Boston, especially with the slow start. We shall see. Computer models are all over the place in terms of temperatures. Some say get the air conditioners ready, while others say get ready for an early fall! Some of the more reliable computer models are pointing out a continuation of this relentless rain well into August. This does not mean rain everyday. However, it does appear there will be waves of rain moving through New England just about every three to five days for the foreseeable future. This means there will be beach days, you just have to choose your days carefully. It’s not automatic like last year.

Speaking of beach days, here’s my latest beach and boating forecast for this week. Expect best beach days to be tomorrow and Wednesday, perhaps extending into Thursday down the Cape. Thereafter, expect unsettled conditions to arrive on Friday and continue through Sunday. I’m not expecting all day rain here, just typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. However, as I mentioned earlier with this summer pattern, expect most everyone to see rain at one point or another this weekend. Temperatures will be warm to borderline hot this week and into the weekend, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80’s. Some interior towns may reach 90, especially Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Best boating weather will be similar to the beach weather, with Tuesday and Wednesday being good days for boating. Thereafter, a southwest airflow will develop. which typically brings choppy seas to south coastal locations. Add the chance for thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, you will need to pick your time wisely. Best weather in patterns like this is typically morning time.

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. After a rainy day today, exoect clearing skies overnight, with lows in the 60’s. Watch for patchy ground fog developing overnight.

Any early fog should burn off by 10 AM tomorrow leading to a brighter day, though not without some billowy clouds building during the day. I’m not expecting rain tomorrow. It will be warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s across the area.

Tuesday night will be a fine mid summer’s night, with fair skies and lows mainly in the 60’s, perhaps low 70’s in urban areas.

Wednesday should be a great beach day, with sunny skies and very warm temperatures. Expect temperatures to warm up to between 85 and 92 degrees. There’s an outside chance Boston may observe its first 90 degree day of the summer on Wednesday. Look for fair and warm weather Wednesday night.

Another slow moving frontal boundary will be approaching New England beginning on Thursday and lasting through Friday and much of the upcoming weekend. This means our weather is going to turn unsettled once again. As mentioned above, I’m not expecting any washouts through the period. However, there will be waves of rain moving through the region throughout this period. We may make it without rain on Thursday, especially down on Cape Cod. Thereafter, expect impulses of rain to move through the region from Friday throughout this upcoming weekend. It’s difficult timing these impulses, but expect to get wet from time to time. In between, we may see some sunny breaks with a warm tropical feel to the air.

I’m hoping for not too much rain this Friday evening! I will be attending the grand re-opening atop of the Great Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Ma.! It has been closed for two years for renovations. I believe it was planned to be an outdoor event, so I’m hoping they will have a tent set up to keep attendees dry! I’m looking forward to seeing the weather guru himself, Jim Cantore! You know what they say about Jim, if he’s in your region doing live broadcast with The Weather Channel, seek shelter! You know a big storm is about to hit! So we’ll most likely have a severe thunderstorm warning that evening! I believe longtime Boston meteorologist Tim Kelley will also be attending among many other familiar faces for sure. If any of my weather enthusiast or amateur meteorologist will be attending, I hope to see you there!

Well, that’s about it for now! I’m planning to write my next post on Monday, July 24th. However, work schedule and other commitments may prevent this from happening. If it does, I will do my best to post as soon as possible. In my next post, I will be taking a look at the weather patterns for the rest of this summer. I will also take a look at what our hurricane season is up to. I will also have your new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, let’s hope the waves of rain turn into waves of heat sooner rather than later!

~Stay dry & safe, everyone!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Wheel of Miss-Fortune…6/26/27

Hello! It’s been a while! I hope everyone is well & enjoyed your weekend! Overall, it turned out to be a decent weekend across the region. This is especially true for those living in eastern areas close to the ocean. Yes, fog & showers had to run their course Saturday morning, but after that passed through, many enjoyed a rather summery weekend. Sunday was the warmer of the two days with many communities reaching the mid to upper 80’s. Add the tropical dew point temperatures surging into the region and we were talking borderline sizzler! If anything, it may of turned into the first real beach day in an overall cool & unsettled June.

Retired WBZ channel 4 Boston meteorologist Barry Burbank used to name these unsettled weather patterns we’ve been stuck in “Wheel of Miss-Fortune.” Indeed, if you look at the satellite loop across the northeastern part of the country, you would see a giant whirlpool of clouds spinning counter-clockwise in a whirlpool type fashion. Once one spoke of energy rotates through, another is right on its heels to take its place. In between, there has been some sunny breaks, even a decent day or two. For many folks, this pattern has gone on far too long! Many friends and family members keep asking when is this pattern going to change!

It reminds me quite a bit hearing me complaining about the warm temperatures in winter and lack of snow! Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts have been watching this pattern evolve since way back in March. This large vortex of inclement weather has been slowly rotating across the country since March. It held off, giving us a decent April, then a fantastic May. Some believed we were going to waltz right into summer without any repercussions. Once June arrived, the pattern abruptly changed. The long awaited winter pattern had finally arrived to the east coast! Call it what you will, “Greenland Block,” “Rex Block,” “Omega Block,” “Negative NAO” it all means pretty much the same for New England…inclement and cool. In fact, this June is going to go down as the first below average month in Boston since January of 2022, a good 16 moths ago!

With the Fourth of July holiday rapidly approaching, many want to know if the “Wheel of Miss-Fortune” is going to pin-wheel its way out of New England! As  of today, we continue to be stuck in this repetitive inclement pattern. However, I have also noted that it’s one of those weird patterns where they keep forecasting showers & thunderstorms every day, and the coast doesn’t see a drop of rain! This has not been the case across parts of the interior and New Hampshire where the air is more unstable. I was monitoring the torrential downpours which prompted flash flood warnings and road closures today.

For this week, we are stuck in this pattern with a large upper level low pressure spinning counter-clockwise to our west. This places southern New England in a southerly flow, bring high dew point temperatures from Florida right up into New England. Timing these spokes of energy is quite difficult. Computer models are having a difficult time forecasting where the rain is going to fall, and what time. For the overnight, computer models are showing a large area of showers and thunderstorms approaching eastern after 3:00 AM continuing into rush hour tomorrow. We may dry out a bit Friday and Saturday later this week. If we get enough sunshine, temperatures may spike up into the mid 80’s, similar to yesterday. A stronger cold front may approach the region on Sunday, bringing a stronger chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms. How strong and widespread is yet to be determined. It could be one of those cases when much of the day remains dry with a late afternoon summer thunderstorm.

Now for the good news. Latest computer model runs have shown a stronger push of dry air arriving on Monday and becoming well established for the 4th of July itself! What this means is that my confidence is increasing that we may see 3 out of 4 nice days over the long 4th of July holiday weekend! Who knows, if we’re lucky, Sunday may not be half bad either.I’m not sure about Sunday just yet, but I believe Monday and Tuesday will be nice days. There may be some early showers down the Cape on Monday, but latest computer models show this rain moving off the coast to salvage a nice day.

Beyond that, we begin our summer season in earnest here in New England. I mentioned in my first summer forecast not to expect a repeat of last summer. I still believe this is true. While I’m not expecting the record rains of two summers ago, I’m expecting more chances of rain throughout July, August and September. Last summer, the heat waited until after July 4th to surge into New England. I’m expecting a similar scenario this summer, but perhaps not as fierce. If you recall, last July and August made up two of the hottest summer months on record in Boston. Two years ago Boston received 24 ninety degree days. Last year we saw 21 days. This was the first back to back summers of 20+ ninety degree days observed here in Boston. Long-term average here in Boston is 14 days.

For this summer, we’re going to go in one of two ways. The first way would not be a popular route for summer worshipers! This route would be a continuation of this blocking pattern with cooler than normal temperatures and wetter than normal conditions well into July and perhaps even August. This would lead to a very frustrating summer for beach goers, and would be very similar to the summer of 2009, our last cooler than average summer here in Boston. I believe we only had about 4 ninety degree days that summer! It was a real clunker! We’re actually way over-due for a summer like that. However, in a warming climate, I find it difficult to occur, but certainly not out of the question.

The second route the summer can take is one that is much more appeasing to summer lovers. The summer pattern would kick in shortly after the 4th and settle in with a nice mixture of more than enough hot days along with ample rainfall for lawns and gardens. When all said and done we would see a fairly typical summer around here, perhaps slightly warmer with between 14 and 17 ninety degree days in Boston, with near average rainfall.

For the record, my original forecast published back in May is the second option. I’m not making any changes to the original forecast this year. I’m going for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days this summer in Boston. With an incoming El Nino, it actually looks very similar to summer 2015. In that summer, Boston had zero 90 degree days up until July 14th. Thereafter, Boston received 14 of them! This looks good to me!

Here’s your beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10 for beach weather. Expect foggy mornings along the coast, burning off to hazy sunshine, only to lead to the chance of a few scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. I’m not expecting any washouts throughout the week. The best chance of any organized rain will be on Sunday. Before then, Friday and Saturday look to be real nice beach weather, with warm temperatures and a good amount of sun, especially along the coast. Thereafter, Monday is looking good say after 10:00 AM and the Fourth is looking splendid at this time! For boaters, keep an eye to the sky for possible thunderstorms early tomorrow, then again later in the day. There may be more activity Wednesday & Sunday, though much of time may be dry.

Now time for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week the same as beach and boating a 7 out of 10. Not bad for a rainy pattern!

Expect a band of showers & thunderstorms to move through the area very late tonight and early tomorrow. Thunderstorms have been weakening on their approach to the ocean as of late. This may happen again, or we could be awoken by an early morning boomer!  It will be muggy, with lows around 70.

Early morning showers will give way to partly sunny skies on Tuesday. Any sunshine may destabilize the air, resulting in more scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, though not all will receive them. Temperatures should top off around 80. Watch for similar weather for your Wednesday, though without the morning showers.

For the period Thursday through Saturday, I’m expecting beach weather! It won’t be perfect, you may be fighting off fog and haze down the Cape each morning, but from what I’m looking at right now, it’s looking like pretty good beach weather. It will be warm and muggy, with high temperatures between 75 and 85 degrees. Just be aware of scattered a scattered thunderstorm which is always a possibility in this warm and muggy air-mass. A front approaching later Saturday may spark off a late afternoon thunderstorm, especially across the interior.

A stronger cold front will be approaching the region on Sunday. If it’s going to rain this weekend, Sunday looks to be the best chance, though timing is still questionable. If you’re down the Cape, it may remain dry for most of the day. At this point, it appears a band of showers and thunderstorms will be traversing the state, moving from west to east, arriving in eastern Massachusetts during the afternoon and evening. Right now, computer models are whisking this activity off the coast by Monday morning. This is a rather abrupt change from earlier runs that showed the rain lingering well into Monday. Let’s remain on the optimistic side and plan for any early morning rain to end on Monday leading to clearing skies and warm temperatures.

The early outlook for the 4th of July calls for mainly sunny and warm temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. I still can’t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm in this air-mass, but the majority of the region looks to remain dry. I give it a thumbs up for fireworks displays for both Monday evening and Tuesday evening. Enjoy!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post is scheduled for Monday, July 10th. In that post I plan on discussing the patterns for the rest of July and take a look how El Nino may influence our hurricane season. I’ll also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, let’s hope the wheel spins us some fortune!

~Wishing everyone a safe & happy 4th of July holiday weekend!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Rather cool & Unsettled… 6/5/23

Hello! Welcome to June! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a weekend more typical of early March than early June. Awful! After may towns reached  low 90’s late last week, temperatures plummeted on Saturday, where may locations were a good 40 degrees colder! Sunday was not better, with cold northeast winds and periods of drizzle. In typical New England fashion, it was beach and AC’s weather on Friday, followed immediately by heavy sweaters and turning on the heat this weekend!

Several friends & family members asked me what the heck just happened? My answer was that it’s simply still too early to sustain summer-like weather around here. With the cold ocean to our east, Canada to our north, we’re just a wind shift away from dramatic cool-down. Latent heating and cooling also plays a significant role in early season weather patterns for both fall & spring. In spring, the land heats up more quickly than the oceans, resulting in very unstable weather patterns. Cool air collects across the Canadian Maritimes and surge into New England as it did this past weekend, delaying any thoughts of an early summer. In autumn, the exact opposite can occur, with mild weather extending deeper into the fall than one would think, keeping the cold and snow away from coastal New England many times through November.

After a remarkable May, the pattern has turned decidedly unsettled here in June. Is this surprising? No! My friends, we just witnessed the sunniest May ever recorded in Boston! In addition, May was also the 4th sunniest month ever recorded here in Boston. (statistic provided by Eric Fisher). It figures the one day we had rain in May was on my nieces college graduation! Sorry Nicole! So it’s not a surprise we observed a bit of a snap back to reality here at the beginning of June. It’s New England after all, it can’t stay sunny and dry forever!

Otherwise, it was pretty much days of endless sunshine and mild temperatures. Notice how I said mild temperatures and not warm. The excessive sunshine was accompanied by extremely dry weather with very low dew points. This led to some unusually cold nights in May, with several nights of suburban frost. Regardless, I believe May still finished with above average temperatures here in Boston. I believe this would make it the last 15 out of 16 months above normal in Boston. And the one month that was below average (last September) was just barely at that.

Was I surprised at the dramatic flip here in June? Yes and no. As I have mentioned many times, this time of the year can be exceptionally deceptive. Yes, they call it meteorological summer, but in Mother Nature’s book, we’re still in spring. The official start of summer does not arrive until June 21st. This means we are still susceptible to cool and rainy periods here in new England well into the month. With this being New England, unusual weather may occur at anytime of the year, regardless. With all that being said, I’m still fascinated how patterns can turn on a dime, resulting in a completely different feel to the air from one day to the next. Many times it leaves one saying, “did that even just happen?”

Yes, it did happen, and has happened before! Not to panic anyone, but sometimes when we receive a brief bust of early heat that is followed by a rush of cool unsettled weather, the summer never recovers. It sometimes remains cool & unsettled for the balance of the season. Am I expecting this to be a repetitive pattern this summer, or is there a chance of this happening? There’s always a chance. However, by no means am I expecting this pattern to persist for the rest of June, let alone the entire summer.

I would not panic just yet thinking the summer is going to be a dud. There are some signs the second half of June will feature plenty of warm to hot days. The summer pattern has yet to establish itself.

My summer forecast posted two weeks ago calls for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days here in Boston this summer. It also mentioned if you are expecting a repeat of last summer’s “California like” pattern, to not get your hopes up. Already, many locations have seen more rain that the entire summer last year, here in the first few days of June. While I’m expecting a cooler and wetter summer this year, I’m still expecting plenty of summery weather. As a reminder, anything over 14 ninety degree days would be a hotter than normal summer. Right now, I’m thinking slightly above that, so somewhat hotter than normal is what I’m going for at this moment. Last year, we received 21 days and the year before that we had 24! If anything, it’s looking like more of a typical summer than anything else. This may seem like a rainy summer, but any summer compared to last year endless droughts will seem like a wet summer. Still, there may be some folks who may be unhappy with the rainy weather at times. My only hope is when it does rain, it happens more on weekdays rather than weekends.

Now for your weekly outdoor beach & boating forecast. While not a complete washout, this week does not look ideal for outdoor beach and boating across much of New England. I would rate it a 4 out of 10. Look for best days for the beach to be tomorrow, then possibly again this weekend. Watch for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, most especially Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be warmest tomorrow, then again this upcoming weekend. It’s all relative on what you perceive is warm. Could it be seasonable for a day or two? Yes, seasonable temperatures this time of year is low to mid 70’s. However, there will be many days which fall below this threshold, with upper 60’s being more common. Best boating days typically coincide with best beach days. Keep an eye to the sky from Wednesday through Friday, with building clouds and afternoon showers & thunderstorms.

Here’s your weekly outdoor early summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Today was gray and cool, with drizzle and showers at times. The weather will be more changeable this week, with sunny periods along with unsettled times. Best weather conditions will be in the AM with unsettled weather during mid to late afternoon.

Expect low clouds and drizzle to persist into the night, with low temperatures holding in the low to mid 50’s.

Tuesday will be one of the best days of the week, with sunshine burning off the early low clouds. Temperatures will respond with highs warming up to the lower to mid 70’s. There air will be somewhat unstable, so there is a chance of a few scattered afternoon and evening showers. In addition, wildfire smoke from Nova Scotia will once again spread over our skies. This will give the sky a hazy look, with the slight scent of smoke to the air! If it’s not the rain it’s the smoke!

Any early evening showers will diminish tomorrow evening, leaving partly cloudy skies and col temperatures. You will not need the heat nor the AC tomorrow night.

Watch for early morning sun for the period Wednesday through Friday. This will be followed by building cumulus clouds with the chance of afternoon and evening showers & thunderstorms each day. Highest chances will be Wednesday and Thursday with diminishing chance on Friday.

As the upper level low pressure moves east on Saturday, there may be a window of opportunity for a warmer, sunnier day, with high temperatures in the upper 70’s.

Questions arise once again for Sunday, as another upper level low pressure may develop across New England. If this delays in happening, Sunday could also be a nice day. However, there’s an equal chance the inclement weather arrives sooner, bringing with it the chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms which may persist into Monday. Thereafter, there are some signs of a warmer weather pattern arriving as we head towards the middle of June.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next weather blog is scheduled for Monday, June 19th. Wow, it will be the 4th before we know it! In that post I will be updating my final summer forecast at the summer solstice. There will be no more changes thereafter. In the meantime, let’s get this cool & unsettled weather out of the way now, so we can welcome the official start of summer in two weeks!

~Happy Birthday to my sister Pam!~ One week from today!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Memorial Day Weekend: Trend is Your Friend! 5/22/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a classic 50/50 proposition in regards to our weather. Saturday started off dry, but turned rainy by midday. The rest of Saturday into Saturday night was a washout, with heavy downpours and localized street flooding. Timing was not ideal, though I learned most graduation ceremonies escaped the heavy rain by just minutes! Congratulations to my niece Nicole who graduated from Bentley University! Congratulations to all other graduates & best of luck with future endeavors! Timing was not ideal for folks who attended the Taylor Swift event. It was a complete deluge from start to finish down at Gillette Stadium. From reports that I read, the soaking rains did not diminish the energy level from this dynamic performer! Give lots of credit to her, and the people who attended the concert for making the best out of a soggy scenario!Fair weather and warm temperatures returned on Sunday, making for a much better venue for the last performance.

Time is limited today, so I’m going to focus on the preliminary summer forecast & the Memorial Day weekend outlook.

My title may say the trend is our friend, but this was not the same sentiment just yesterday! I have to admit, looking at computer models yesterday, I was very concerned of a repeat of the Memorial Day massacre of 2021. Who remembers the three day washout that year? In some ways, the weather pattern is quite similar to that year. Back in 2021, there was a storm meandering off the southeast coastline. Computer models were waffling back & forth whether the storm was going to move up the coast lashing New England with strong winds and heavy rains, or remain out to sea. Well, as the weekend drew closer, it became more apparent that a late season three day Nor’easter was going to foul up the Memorial Day weekend festivities. Similar to a winter storm, the cyclone arrived and stalled off our coast, sending bands of heavy rain and gusty winds across much of the region. I’ll never forget the storms departure was timed perfectly at the very end of Memorial Day itself. While my sister & brother were driving home from the Cape, the sun broke through clouds, as the storm headed east.

Could it be deja-vu all over again? Well, believe it or not, the pattern is eerily similar. In fact, yesterday’s computer models were showing a very similar set up to 2021. However, today’s computer models backed off from the stormy outlook for Memorial weekend. In fact, today’s guidance is now showing a mainly dry weekend along with somewhat of warming trend. I don’t see any hot weather, but we could be flirting with 80 degrees on Sunday. Depending on how close the storm gets on Monday, it could be just as warm on the holiday itself. We still have to monitor this situation. If the storm wobbles any closer on Monday, it would introduce at the very least a sea-breeze along the coast. This would keep temperatures cooler along coastal locations. However, if the storm remains far enough south of us, we would enjoy more of a land breeze, with temperatures near 80 degrees. As of right now, Saturday and Sunday look like fine late spring days, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 70’s on Saturday and near 80 on Sunday.

The Memorial holiday weekend marks the unofficial start of summer for many. Meteorological summer officially begins on June 1st and runs for three months until August 31st. Not only here in New England, but for most of the country for that matter. Of course folks who live in the southern part of our country enjoy summer weather earlier. It typically takes until the start of June for sustained warm weather to become more dominant in the northern parts of the country, including us here in New England. Sometimes, cool unsettled conditions can persist deep into June, especially in coastal areas of New England. Real summer heat typically awaits until the official start of summer on the summer solstice on June 20th.

In some respect, we have seen more extreme weather patterns the past few summers than during winter. We have seen everything from extreme heat, flooding rains to extreme drought. In contrast, winter has been quite benign, with no sustained cold or heavy snow. Meanwhile, summer’s continue to get hotter, with higher amounts of humidity. Here in Boston, the last cooler than normal summer was way back in 2009! i measure how hot a summer is by the number of 90 degree days we observe. Two summers ago we received a whopping 24 days! Last summer was almost as hot with 22 days. Last summer also saw the mercury eclipse 100 degrees twice in the city.

So what can we expect for summer 2023 in our region? For one, we are transitioning from a La Nina to El Nino this summer. This typically means a cooler and wetter summer for Boston. However, with a warming climate we are in, you can pretty much throw away those analogs you see comparing summers of today from back 30 / 40 years ago. No matter how hard the atmosphere tries to show cool, it always ends up warmer!

Much like the past several years, let’s start off conservative and go for a warmer than normal summer, but not quite as hot as the previous two. On average, Boston receives approximately 14 ninety degree days in a typical summer. At this moment, I’m calling for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days in the city. On my final summer forecast near the summer solstice, I may adjust this number up or down, depending on pattern trends. Last year was extremely tricky! We had zero 90 degree days through the end of June, but we ended up with 22 for the season! This was in large part for one of the hottest July / August duo on record! I’m expecting something similar this year, with a bit of a slow start, then a formidable recovery the deeper we progress into summer, though less intense than last year.

If you are expecting a rain-less summer again like last summer…you may be somewhat disappointed. I wouldn’t build any arks just yet, but we are going to experience much more rain this summer compared to last year. Anything more than last year is going to seem like a lot. In reality, I’m only expecting near average precipitation this summer. This means we should see around 3 to 4″ of rain each month, mostly derived from afternoon and evening thunderstorms. We’ll see how this all turns out. When you average it all out. it may turn out to be a fairly typical summer around here for both temperature and precipitation, though I can’t guarantee no surprises!

As I have done in the past, I will have a final update at the summer solstice. I’m sure there will be some surprises and changes to this forecast!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect fair skies overnight and cool temperatures, with lows mainly in the 40’s. The sky continues to feature a hazy look due to the prevailing winds bringing smoke into new England from the Alberta, Canadian wildfires. It seems like we’ve been dealing with smoky skies for several weeks now! My friend Scott Dunlop on Twitter and Facebook has captured some amazing photos of the sun recently from Connecticut! As the sun sets, the smoky skies give it a pinkish or reddish glow. Amazing!

Tuesday should feature more smoky or hazy skies. With winds blowing onshore, temperatures will be held down along the coast, with highs only in the low to mid 60’s. Temperatures should reach the low 70’s as you travel 30 miles inland.

Expect fair and cool weather again tomorrow night, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

As winds turn southwest, watch for a warmer day on Wednesday, with plenty of sun and highs in the upper 70’s. A sharp cold front will be slicing through New England Wednesday evening bringing with it a chance of a few light showers or sprinkles. Behind that, winds will once again turn more northerly with cooler air rushing back into New England.

After a chilly start, expect mainly sunny skies and cool temperatures for your Thursday, with highs mainly in the 60’s.

From what I see at this moment, it looks like mainly sunny skies with a warming trend from the period Friday through Sunday. If you’re thinking beach, Sunday may be the best day for that, with sunny skies and highs near 80. Friday and Saturday look good too, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70’s.

If there’s any questionable weather for the upcoming weekend, it may be on the holiday itself. It may end up being just like Sunday, with sunny skies and warm temperatures. I would give it a 85% chance of this scenario panning out. However, there’s still a small risk the ocean storm to our south creeps closer than anticipated, this would introduce onshore winds, and perhaps some clouds. There would be a remote chance of some showers, but I’m not expecting this scenario at this current moment. Of course things could change, so please monitor local forecasts for the latest outlook for Monday. For right now, I’m taking the optimistic road and calling for a solid Memorial Day weekend for most of the region to enjoy.

Well, that’s about it for now! Next time we speak will be well into meteorological summer on Monday, June 5th. In that post, I will review the month of May and have an outlook for what we can expect for June. I will also share any new updates I have for our summer patterns. In the meantime, please keep in mind the real meaning of Memorial Day. Remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice to help bring us the freedom we enjoy today. It’s also a time to gather with friends and family to remember loved ones who are no longer with us today.

~Stay safe & enjoy the holiday!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

The Beauty of May…5/8/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a spectacular May weekend across the region. Saturday featured near 100% of the possible sunshine with light winds. Temperatures responded into the mid to upper 70’s. If anything, the weather was even better on Sunday! Once again, hardly a cloud in the sky, light winds, and temperatures feeling more June-like than early May with some communities reaching 80 degrees. This, coming off a very shaky start to May last week.

It happens nearly every year about this time. Once May hits, people want instant summer. Yes, in some parts of the country this is the case. However, here in New England, May is still a true spring month. This means we can still experience inclement weather at times, with chilly temperatures. These sluggish weather patterns can sometimes persist into June. May is a true transition month, and is changeable one year to the next. Some May’s are downright cold and wet, while other warm and dry. From what I can see, this May looks to be a combination of the two. Last week was cold & wet, this week is warm & dry. Look for these oscillating patterns to continue for the balance of the month leading to a near average month in both precipitation and temperatures.

As my title states, we are enjoying the beauty of May this week. This time of the year, it’s all about the wind direction. Last week featured many days with onshore winds blowing in from off of the Atlantic. This typically means chilly temperatures, low clouds, fog & drizzle. Sound familiar? This week will feature mainly offshore winds. This is a warmer, dryer weather pattern for the Boston area and much of New England for that matter.

With that being said, an area of low pressure will pass south of New England tomorrow. Most of the main impacts of this storm will miss us to the south. However, it will pass close enough to turn winds onshore tomorrow, bringing cooler temperatures to eastern Massachusetts. Once this storm passes east, temperatures will rebound and be quite warm for the balance of the week.

Overall, I would rate May high on the list for enjoyable months here in Boston. Not too hot, not too cool. You also have to be impressed with all the beautiful colors May has to offer! While nothing quite beats the autumn colors here in New England, May features its own version of stunning colors! From the deep greens of fresh grass, to stunning reds and yellows and purple flowers, spring is the season of awakening, new life and new beginnings. Add cobalt blue skies to the mix, and we have a spring extravaganza of color! It’s the opposite of autumn, but brings its own majestic beauty!

Speaking of new life, where are we standing with green up? Well, here in the Boston area, we are actually nearing the end of this years green up season. Overall, it looks like everything arrived fairly close to average times. With the warm spell during mid April in conjunction with the very warm winter, it looks like it was running about a 7 to 10 days ahead of schedule this year. Leaves are typically fully bloomed on about May 10th, which looks about right this year. Mowing season in Boston, on average, runs from May 1st to October 31st. Last I checked, mowing season is well under way.

The further north you live, the slower the process. It won’t be for another week or two before everything is in full bloom across northern New England, and not until Memorial Day or even early June across the higher terrain! This part of New England is still susceptible to frost at night, so no tender planting just yet! In fact, even locations in southern New England outside of urban areas are also still susceptible to frost. A good rule of thumb is Memorial Day weekend to plant the tomatoes. I remember a few years ago frost warnings in many locations late in May. Don’t let the recent warm temperatures fool you, it can still get cold at night!

Hard to believe we are 70% through meteorological spring. June 1st marks the beginning of meteorological summer. Local meteorologist and horticulturist Dave Epstein tweeted out an interesting piece of information. The period of May 5th to August 5th is known as solar summer. During this period, we experience the most daylight out of the entire year. The longest day peaks right in the middle of this bell curve on the first day of summer, which is on June June 21st. Thereafter, the days will begin to shorten, Very slowly at first, but begins to increase the second half of July and especially August.

Before we talk summer, I wanted to write a quick wrap up of our past winter. May 10th marks the end of the latest date snow has been recorded in Boston. After this date, it’s pretty safe to say no more snow in Boston! This will be brief, as there wasn’t much of a winter to speak of. In fact, it was the one of the least snowiest and warmest on record here in Boston. It was the winter that never was. The extremely warm end to October and first half of November set the tone. Winter never recovered from there. A brief cold snap brought colder temperatures for a change around Christmas, only to have spring temperatures return for New year’s and basically the remainder of the winter. The remarkable aspect of this winter was how consistently warm the pattern remained. It was an active winter, with many disturbances bringing “white rain” here in Boston, which is snow that falls, but melts as soon as it hits the ground. Temperatures were consistently well above freezing when it snowed, so nothing could accumulate. It was a different story across interior New England and especially the ski resorts. Oddly enough, these locations were just cold enough to receive near average snowfall. A massive March storm brought heavy rain to Boston, but up to 4 ft of snow across the higher terrain of New England. Another odd event occurred on February 4th, when Boston observed its coldest since 1957, when the low temperature dropped to 10 below zero. The cold snap was brief, and no snow accompanied the bitter blast.

I would give my winter forecast a B+ this year. I was calling for a mild winter with below average snowfall from the get go. I even downgraded the preliminary thoughts at the winter solstice. However, that still wasn’t even enough, as the winter couldn’t even muster the meager numbers I had forecast. Overall, I would rate the winter a 2 out of 10 on severity index.

Moving onto summer. My official preliminary summer forecast will be posted two weeks from today! I have been watching the patterns closely, and have some preliminary thoughts I would like to share with you. First, it’s still early yet, so these thoughts will likely change. Early indications are calling for a slightly cooler summer than the past several. However, I have played this game before, only to ramp up my numbers at the summer solstice update. With a warming climate, it seems every summer has been hotter than normal. Indeed, I believe the last cooler than normal summer we have seen here in Boston was way back in 2009. Saying it may be cooler than the past two summers is not saying much. Each of the last two summers has been some of the hottest summers on record here in Boston. At this point, I’m not forecasting a cooler than normal summer, just maybe a bit cooler than the last two. We may not hit 90 degrees twenty times this summer, but may still come close.My official number of 90 degree days will be posted om May 23rd with my summer outlook.

Precipitation is still very much inconclusive. I can almost bet the bank it will not be as dry as last summer. However, there’s no strong signal that it will be a wet summer either, Periods of drought may persist this summer, punctuated by wet episodes. Right now, I’m leaning towards average summer rainfall across the region. It’s a no win situation, as even just average summer precipitation will seem like a “wet” summer compared to last year. As we all know, it’s all relative. Having beautiful weather over the Memorial Day, Fourth of July and Labor Day weekends goes a long way with many folks as how they remember the summer. Showers & thunderstorms occurring late at night only to clear out before dawn is the best of both worlds. Rainy days over the weekends is not ideal, to say the least. It’s important for the long wave pattern to establish a “groove” early on, bringing fronts through during weekdays and evenings, only to clear out in time for weekends. Needless to say, it’s going to rain more this summer than last, we will have to adjust accordingly.

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10!

Expect a mixture of sun and puffy cumulus clouds for the rest of your Monday afternoon and evening. It will be a very pleasant evening for a walk in the park or neighborhood. Watch for temperatures to be in the mid 70’s this afternoon, only slowly cooling off this evening. Overnight looks mainly fair and comfortable, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

Look for changeable weather conditions for your Tuesday. A back door cold front will push from east to west during the morning. This will change wind direction to northeast, and bring cooler air in off of the ocean. Therefore, expect temperatures to be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler tomorrow than today. I’m not expecting any rainfall, just a wind shift. A sprinkle can’t be ruled out with any change of air mass.

As I mentioned earlier in my update, some interior locations will turn quite chilly tomorrow night, with lows dropping back into the 30’s with a chance of scattered frost in some communities. Otherwise, temperatures will fall into the 40’s across urban areas such as the City of Boston. All under fair skies.

Here’s the real good news. Winds will shift offshore once again for Wednesday through Friday, with mainly sunny skies and temperatures responding back up into the mid to upper 70’s, some communities reaching 80 degrees! May weather at its best!

There may be a brief shower Friday night in response to a cool front slicing through the area. This will make this weekend slightly cooler, but still above normal for the time of year. Expect mainly sunny skies for both Saturday and on Mother’s Day with highs mainly in the lower 70’s each day. Enjoy! The tranquil weather pattern should continue well into next week.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next blog is scheduled for two weeks from today, on May 23rd. At that time, I will posting my preliminary summer forecast! I will also have your Memorial Day weekend outlook. Wow, how time flies! In the meantime, enjoy the beauty of May, the heat of summer is nearly upon us!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

~Happy Birthday to my brother John!~ (May 11th)

April…Being April! 4/24/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! While Saturday was generally on the dry side, the rain moved in late evening, and Sunday was a complete washout! It was also much cooler than what it’s been, with temperatures struggling to reach the low 50’s. Believe it or not, the region needed the rain. After a fairly wet winter, early spring has been on the dry side, with brush fires flaring up across the region. Overall, it was a good weekend to stay indoors for a change, perhaps catching up on a good book or your favorite movie!

As mentioned above, the water was a welcome sight for many. Not only local firefighters, but also the spring vegetation beginning to blossom across the region. This is an important period in the spring timetable when copious amounts of rainfall is a good thing. With the burst of warm weather we enjoyed in mid-April, green-up began in earnest, with the grass turning green, trees blooming, and flowers making their annual appearance. It almost goes without saying, but rainfall this time of year is a very important element in helping all these spring blossoms get off to a strong start. Thank goodness we typically receive a good amount of rainfall around here during springtime.

As mentioned above, we are on our way to leaf-out and summer vegetation. However, as in most years, there are always a couple hurdles we must cross until we arrive to the finish line! This year appears to be no different. After our brief interlude with summer last week, temperatures have cooled back down to seasonal levels, if not a bit below! This is a good reminder that summer begins on June 20th, not April 20th! We needed the brief warm up to get the lawns green and begin the process of leaf-out.

On average, the process begins around April 20th in the Boston area, when many trees begin to flower. About 7 to 10 days later, the flower gives way to small leaves. These baby leaves will give way to larger more mature leaves and the process is mostly complete by mid-May. Temperatures most definitely play a role in this process. Back in 2012, temperatures were so warm, trees began leaf-out process in early April! In cold springs, it can be as late late May! With the warm surge last week, this year is slightly ahead of schedule, but nothing out of the ordinary.

I was speaking with my sister Pam about this last week, and she mentioned how much further along we were in green-up down here in Boston compared to where she lives in New Hampshire. Absolutely. The further north you live, the longer it takes for leaf-out. In fact, it may not be until late May until everything blooms up there, and even mid-June in high terrain locations. Temperatures are generally colder, and solar radiation is slightly less strong than southern areas. In cooler years, leaves can begin changing as early as late August up north, leaving only a few months summer season!

As I mentioned earlier, receiving sustained warm weather around here in early spring can be a challenge some years. I have mentioned this many times before, our climate here in New England is not for the faint of heart! Generally speaking, it’s a rather pleasant climate. We typically do not experience the natural disasters such as severe tornadoes, hurricanes or earthquakes other parts of the country experience. With that being said, we have our moments! On occasion, winters can be quite fierce, with excessive amounts of snowfall in any one given location. It can also be bitter cold for extended periods of time, along with high winds. Combine all these three factors together, and many folks moving here from other parts of the country take a hard pass.

Thankfully not every winter brings these conditions! Some years, such is this past winter, mild weather with little snow is the main theme. Unfortunately, these kind of winters lull people into thinking every winter is like this around here, and it’s basically a cake walk! It’s true. we may string several mild winters in a row together, until the stormy and cold cycle reverts back to the east coast. Then all bets are off!

After all that, winter-like temperatures tend to linger deep into the spring, especially along coastal locations. This is where the famous phrase, “we went straight from winter right into summer” comes from.! In some years, this is absolutely true. Folks seem to think summer begins in May around here. Yes, some years it can, leading to a nice extended summer. However, not every year. Some years spring reverts back to cold and wet patterns, only to welcome summertime heat by Memorial Day!

Other years, May can be an absolute gorgeous month! Warm temperatures can make for very pleasant days to be outdoors. If there has been enough rain in April, May can offer stunning spring colors only rivaled by those of autumn! In my opinion, May is the one real spring month here in New England. March is more wintry than spring. April can still have its moments. May is the month when everything blooms, and temperatures warm up to enjoy the outdoors. Most years, it’s stunning!

How about this May? Will we be able to say these beautiful words about May this year here in New England? If I were to take an educated guess, I would lean towards no. After such a mild winter, it appears as if the long awaited wintry pattern may finally be settling into the eastern part of the U.S. at least to begin May. Does this mean break out the snow-blower and winter gear? Thankfully no! Though I would not be shocked if there were reports of some snow in higher terrain locations in northern New England.

Remember, technically it’s still spring, and these locations have received heavy late season May snowstorms in years past. It’s not unheard of up there. Down here in the coastal plain, it’s rare to see snow in May, but not unprecedented. Back on May 9th, 1977 a freak late season snowstorm brought accumulating snowfall to much of central and eastern Massachusetts! Enough snow fell to bring trees and power lines down resulting in widespread damage. I remember knocking snow off tree limbs here in West Roxbury after 2 to 3″ of wet snow fell. Other areas a bit further inland received up to 8″, while some parts of Worcester County received up to 20″ of wet snow!

Snow fell in many locations on the same date as recent as 2020! Nothing accumulated here in Boston, but I do remember waking up early to witness snow showers falling here in the city. Heavy snow showers continued for much of the day up in New Hampshire, turning the ground white several times during the day! It can happen, but not often.

After the warm winter, it appears as if cooler than normal temperatures and unsettled weather conditions will be slowly progressing towards the east coast and New England to start May. This is not a surprise to me, I actually expected this pattern to settle in much earlier. Nonetheless, computer models are showing a cool & wet start to May this year. I would not be surprised if this pattern persisted for much of the month. I understand this is not what many folks would like to hear. However, I think it’s good news that a cool wet pattern is on the horizon for May. You would rather this pattern come around earlier in the spring, than sometime in June or July. If we can get through the high latitude blocking early enough, the pattern should break down by the time the summer solstice arrives on June 20th, for nicer summer weather.

It’s early yet, but I’m beginning to gather my information to present my summer forecast which will be posted on May 22nd this year. As i have done in years past, the first summer forecast is a preliminary outlook, followed by the final forecast in case there are any changes on or near the summer solstice. At this early juncture, it’s looking like another warm to hot summer for us here in New England. I don’t believe it is going to be as hot as the past two summers. However, in a warming climate, it’s hard to imagine a cooler than normal summer at this point. Right now, I do not see any evidence of a cool summer. Early outlook is for very warm conditions, most likely warmer than normal, but not extreme heat we experienced the past two summers. Boston typically receives 14 ninety degree days per summer. We will most likely surpass this number, but by how much is the big question right now. One thing that is more certain is precipitation. I can almost guarantee a wetter summer than we experienced last summer. Right now, I’m leaning close to average amounts of rain. This may seem like a lot, due to the fact it barely rained at all last summer. In contrast, I don’t believe we are going to see the torrential rains of two summers ago. Normal would not be a bad trade off! I will be monitoring the patterns and keep everyone updated with latest trends!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast! I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Somewhat unsettled and cooler temperatures.

Watch for pleasant conditions this evening, with some sunny breaks along with lots of puffy cumulus clouds. It should be generally dry, but a few pop up showers can not be ruled out. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 50’s across the region. Tonight should feature partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures with lows dropping into the 30’s and 40’s. Coldest in rural areas.

For Tuesday through Thursday of this week, expect unsettled and cool conditions. No wash-out is anticipated, but cold pool air aloft will make conditions unstable in the atmosphere. In patterns like this, early morning sun, will give way to building cumulus clouds. As conditions become more unstable, scattered afternoon showers will develop each afternoon. Some of these showers may be briefly heavy and contain some small hail. Temperatures will mainly be in the 50’s during the day, and 30’s and 40’s at night.

As this cold pool aloft tracks off the coast, the weather for Friday and most of Saturday look to feature more sunshine, and slightly warmer temperatures. While no heat is expected, temperatures could warm up into the low to mid 60’s both days.

A storm system will be approaching the region the second half of the weekend. Timing could be a bit off, but at the very least I’m expecting increasing clouds and cooler temperatures for Sunday. If the storm speeds up a bit, rain could develop during the afternoon or at night. If the storm slows down, it could hold off until Sunday night or early Monday. Once this storm arrives, expect a good soaking rain along with possibly windy conditions. It remains to be seen if this storm is going to evolve into somewhat of a early May Nor’easter, or just remain as a slow moving cold front traversing the region. Either way, expect rather cold & rainy weather to start of the month of May.

Thereafter, it looks like once this storm moves out, drier but cool weather should move in for the balance of next week. Remember, it’s all relative! Cooler than normal weather this time of the year are temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s, not 20’s and 30’s. Once we hit May, it’s more like 50’s and 60’s. So cooler than average, but the averages are increasing on a daily basis this time of year.

I wanted to quickly mention one more thing before I leave. It’s such a shame most of New England was socked in with clouds last night. It so happened we had one of the largest geomagnetic storms in recent history! This is when the sun emits solar flares towards earth. If the conditions are right, the Aurora Borealis or Northern Lights can be visible, especially for northern latitudes. These lights or waves of energy is a result of energy from the sun, colliding with earth’s magnetic field of charged electrons and neutrons resulting in a spectacular display of beautiful colors in a wavelike manner shimmering across the atmosphere. On a scale of 1 to 10, this was a 10! If skies were clear, locations such as the Boston area would of enjoyed perhaps a once in a lifetime event! As it was, my Twitter friend Scott was able to capture the incredible lights with some beautiful photos from Connecticut! Other locations as far south as Virginia were able to observe the magnificent show! Typically, the southern extent to see the lights is Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Upstate New York, and other northern latitude states.

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next post next week on May 1st, I will be reviewing the month of April, and have a preview of May. I will also be discussing more thoughts on our upcoming summer and how El Nino may influence our patterns moving forward. In the meantime, enjoy the spring weather, the heat of summer will be here before we know it!

Thanks for reading & be safe my friends!

Peter

Touch of Summer! 4/10/23

Hello! I hope everyone had a blessed and joyous Easter Sunday! We will be celebrating Greek Orthodox Easter this Sunday! The weather this past weekend was about as perfect as it can be for this time of year. Both days featured near 100% of the possible sunshine, with high temperatures mainly in the 50’s during the day. With the air mass being so dry, temperatures actually dropped into the 20’s and low 30’s at night. Overall, it was a perfect weekend for any outdoor activities, including yard clean-ups, a walk in the neighborhood, or a hike in the woods.

A good friend of mine mentioned that it’s been a bit chilly for her liken here in the fist 10 days of April. I would have to agree! Though we are solidly into early spring, temperatures can lag behind a bit, especially as one travels north and east here in New England. This is mainly due to cold ocean temperatures this time of the year, and the latent heating I mention often. In addition, very dry dew point temperatures have allowed temperatures to plummet at night, similar as they would in desert climates. Temperatures have been downright cold when the sun sets, and overnight lows have been more like winter than spring. The upside is the crystal clear, sunny days we’ve been experiencing. This allows temperatures to quickly warm up in the strong April sun. Did you know the sun is at the same angle as August right now? Yes! If you plan on being outdoors for any length of time, please apply sunscreen!

Yet, it’s still early. The first 10 days of April are still capable of producing winter storms and even blizzards some years. However, once past April 10th, the chance for significant snow diminishes to only as a rare occurrence here in Boston. No doubt, it has happened in past history, but with a warming climate, it would seem very unlikely these days. The story is always much different in higher terrain locations and up in northern New England, where major snowstorms can still occur even into May! Are we done with snow here in Boston this year? I would say in all likelihood, yes. Though as always, living in New England, we must place an asterisk next to that statement. The official date of taking snow completely off the table is May 10th. We have seen accumulating snow here in Boston as late as May 9th, 1977!

We are moving along with our scheduled green-up timetable here in New England. On average, grass magically turns green seemingly overnight this time of year. Looking around my neighborhood today, it appears the lawns have indeed turned green! This is about right on schedule. Any hold outs will give way to the summer-like temperatures arriving this week. It used to be mowing began on May 1st and ran through October 31st. However, once again, with a warming climate these days, lawn mowing may begin as soon as mid-April and run through mid-November. Almost an entire month longer than in years past!

Most trees are currently still dormant, or just beginning to bud. It would be interesting to take a picture of the landscape today, then another picture one week from now to see the difference in how much greener things will look. With temperatures in the 70’s and even low 80’s much of this week, trees and shrubs are going to burst onto the scene. By next Monday, 60% of the trees will have flowered and ready for leaf out. With the exceptionally warm winter, it won’t take much to get this process moving along this year. I would say by May 1st, most of the Boston area will have their leaves on the trees. This is about 10 days ahead of schedule.

Despite the warm weather this week, I would continue to hold off planting tender plants and vegetation. Long range computer data shows a cool down arriving next week, which can feature overnight lows back close to freezing, most especially outside of Rt 128. This is completely normal, and can sometimes persist into the start of May. This is why many folks plant their tomato plants after mid May around here. Hardy flowers such as daffodils or many other types of perennials will do just fine for early season flower blooms.

One by-product of the early warm dry weather is the increased risk of brush fires. You would think this happens only out west, but not true! We have to deal with these issues here in New England as well. In fact, there have been several large brush fires in the region recently, some resulting in significant property damage. Why so many brush fires? First, the sun’s radiation is very strong this time of year. I mentioned earlier that it’s the same strength as an August sun! Second, the recent dry weather has dried out the soil and vegetation from last fall. Third, green-up has not arrived in many areas, this allows unabated sunshine to further dry out old vegetation. At this point, it doesn’t take much to spark a fire! Things got out of hand last week with some of these fires, threatening to burn large homes down in wooded areas of the region.

So where do we go from here? There was a time a few weeks ago when I believed that a cold, unsettled spring was on the way. However, it’s obvious now that this does not appear to be the case. Much like what they’ve been doing all winter, compute models are depicting patterns and events that never show up and materialize. Since last year, we’ve been stuck in a semi-permanent pattern of trough (cold & stormy) in the west, and ridge (warm & dry) in the east. It has briefly broken down a few times, only to quickly regain its dominance. The fact of the matter is the Pacific Ocean remains colder than normal, despite a developing El Nino. I thought the transition from La Nina to El Nino was going to be more transparent, leading to marked changes in the overall weather patterns across the country. This has not been the case.

La Nina continues to influence the climate, with colder than normal weather across the western part of the country, and warmer than normal weather in the east. Therefore, it appears as if we will continue to see warm surges punctuated by brief cool spells for the remainder of April and most likely May as well. This is good news if you like spring weather around here! As long as the Pacific remains cold, this will favor cooler temperatures out west, and warmer temperatures in the east.

Will this pattern persist into this summer? This is the million dollar question everyone is currently analyzing! Some are calling for a cooler, wetter summer this year. This is only based off a changing ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) state, and subsequent similar patterns that follow. It’s hard to imagine a repeat of last summer happening again. But, who knows? In my opinion, we can’t rely on any patterns that have occurred in the past, to be predictors for the future. In other words, past teleconnections can not be used for future pattern recognition. The entire base line has changed. Therefore, an incoming El Nino may bring another hot, dry summer to New England, despite what normally should occur!

It’s just too early to tell from now. What I can tell you computer models are split on the evolution of summer. Indeed, some are saying a cooler & wetter summer is on the way. This makes some sense seeing we’re headed into El Nino, and the incredibly dry summer we had last year. However, there are several models still going for another hotter than normal summer again this year. This also makes sense seeing how our planet continues to warm at an alarming rate. Our average for 90 degree days used to be 14 days per summer. This would seem unusually cool to even be close to this number compared to recent summers! Over the past two summers alone, Boston has observed 90 degree temperatures 24 times two years ago, and 22 times last year. In fact, this was the first time in recorded history that Boston has observed back to back summers with 20 + ninety degree days.

As they say, ‘It’s not the heat, but that darn humidity!’ Dew point temperatures have been exceedingly swampy in Boston, with humidity levels increasing as each year passes. I have never seen such levels of heat & humidity over the past few years in my entire life of observing weather here in Boston. A somewhat cooler summer would be a nice break, but I’m not anticipating it at this point. My official preliminary summer forecast will be posted on Monday, May 22nd.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast! I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Get out and enjoy the beautiful warm weather!

Expect a very pleasant rest of your Monday afternoon, with blue skies, light winds and comfortable temperatures in the low to mid 60’s. It will be a wonderful evening for a walk in the park, take in a ball game or any outdoor activity.

Watch for clear weather tonight, with temperatures not as cold as recent nights. I don’t believe you will need the heat on, but some furnaces may click on late at night as temperatures fall into the 30’s and 40’s region wide.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature southwesterly winds. This will act as two factors. First, it will transport warmer air in from our southwest. Second, it will help thwart any sea breezes from developing along the coast. Therefore, watch for temperatures to soar across the region, with many towns warming to between 78 and 85 degrees! Tomorrow should feature ample amounts of sunshine, while Wednesday may see more clouds around the area, but also plenty of sun.

Steering currents may slacken Thursday through Saturday. The air mass will still be very warm across the region, however local sea-breezes may keep it 10 degrees cooler within 10 miles of the ocean. Watch for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80’s across interior New England, but low to mid 70’s along the coast with light onshore winds. All the while, I am not anticipating any rainfall for this entire week. Spring weather at its finest!

An approaching cold front on Sunday may result in a few more clouds, and possibly a few widely scattered showers, but no organized rain is expected. I’m expecting similar temperatures across the region, though some models are showing a slightly stronger sea breeze? That’s just speculation at this point. I wouldn’t head to the beach, but don’t cancel any outdoor activities.

The outlook for Patriots Day (Marathon Monday) is for generally mild weather, with highs mostly in the 60’s, perhaps some low 70’s if there’s any early morning sun. A cold front will be traversing the region during the day. Too bad so many dry days beforehand couldn’t last one more day! With that being said, I do not foresee any widespread wash-out or soaking rains. However, there will be a band of rain showers crossing the state during the day. Timing is difficult to pin down at this point. There is a chance this line may slow down so that most of the elite runners run the course dry. My recommendation is to check with local news media for the latest on when this line of rain may move through on Monday. Otherwise, expect generally fair but somewhat cooler temperatures to return next week, with dry weather resuming.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post may not be until Monday, May 1st. If time permits, I may post prior to that date. In my next post, I will have my winter re-cap, and more in depth thoughts on our approaching summer. I will also have a new outlook for the month of May. In the meantime, say so long to winter and hello to summer! Wait…what happened to spring?

~Happy Easter to my Greek Orthodox family & friends!~

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Hello, Spring! 3/20/23

Hello! Happy first day of spring! Technically, spring arrives today at 5:24 PM. At this point, the sun is directly over the equator, when we have equal amount of daylight and darkness. This is called the spring equinox. After a somewhat frigid last day of winter, temperatures will rebound today, with highs near 50 degrees. Without the wind, this will actually feel close to 60 this afternoon! I call this the reverse wind chill effect. Saturday featured a mixture of sun and clouds, along with seasonable temperatures. After the cold front moved through, temperatures began to plummet late in the day and especially at night.

From this point moving forward, the days will continue to lengthen, by 4 minute per day here in March. In fact, March features the greatest gain of daylight out of any month of the year. As we move closer to the summer solstice, the momentum slows down until June 21st. Thereafter, the days begin to shorten and we repeat the cycle over again.

If you ever studied earth science, the entire process on how & why the seasons change is fascinating! Many people just take it for granted and don’t really understand the process. Did you know that the earth is tilted 23.5 degrees on its axis? If the earth wasn’t tilted on its axis, the seasons as we know it would not exist. There would no longer be any variation to temperatures or precipitation.

It takes 365 days for the earth to orbit around the sun. While in orbit, earth is spinning on its own axis and takes 24 hours to complete one revolution. This is what gives us night and day! As mentioned above, the key to our seasons is the 23.5 degree tilt! Because we are now tilting closer to the sun, solar radiation is rapidly increasing on a daily basis. This will continue until we reach the summer solstice. At that point, earth will begin its journey towards the autumnal equinox, and the radiation will begin to reduce as we begin tilting away from the sun. Our days will begin to shorten, as temperatures decrease. It’s not precise. There is latent heating and cooling effects which skews the dates.

For example, our hottest temperatures typically do not occur on the summer solstice itself. It takes longer for the oceans to warm up to maximum temperature, and cumulative solar radiation to reach earth. Therefore, our warmest part of the year arrives between July 1st and August 15th. This is when we experience our warmest daily maximum temperatures. Similar process occurs in winter. Ocean temperatures take longer to cool off in the fall, delaying arctic temperatures from arriving until January in most years. Consequently, our coldest temperatures of the year typically occur between January 1st and February 15th. In between, is what we call transition seasons (spring and fall), when temperatures are increasing or decreasing.

So…welcome to spring! As a winter lover, I’m glad to say goodbye to this winter. While interior locations received their share of snow, this was not a I95 winter by any stretch! Many cities along I95 from Boston to Washington D.C. have experienced either one of their least snowiest or the least snowiest winters on record! Here in Boston we at least received a few small snow events totaling up to a whopping 12.4″ for the season. This is close to three ft below average. I believe New York stands at 2.3″ and cities like Philadephia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. have only received a few tenths of an inch of snow. Essentially a snow-less winter.

It’s been a different story across the interior of New England, especially north and west of I495. A large storm last Tuesday dumped between 1 and 3 ft, with some locations above 2,000 feet in elevation receiving close to 4 ft! Here in Boston and close to the coastal plain, it was a case too little too late, the story of the winter. I mentioned this in my post last week that if two storms don’t merge in time, the result would be just an inch or two around Boston. It’s tough watching computer models go from 10 to 15″ of accumulation the morning of the storm, dwindling down to zero inches by afternoon. In the end, we did manage a slushy inch around Boston, but thankfully no shoveling was needed.

Now that it’s spring, we can put the snow shovels away, right? Not just yet! We have a few more sub-seasons to go through before we can officially store away the winter equipment until next year. There have been too many early spring storms to list over the years that have occurred between now and April 10th. The most notable one is the April Fools’ Blizzard back in 1997. The odds are lower, but about once every five years Boston can see a spring snowstorm. The last one was back to back snowstorms at the beginning of April of 2016. So you could say we’re “overdue” for a spring snow. After April 10th the odds for accumulating snow in Boston further diminish, but not zero by any means. In mid April of 2020 we received wet snow that accumulated a few inches on trees and lawns. If the patterns right, the potential for snow still exists through April. In fact, the latest snow on record in Boston occurred on May 9th, 1977!

As you can see, spring can be somewhat of an adventure around here. As mentioned above, the oceans are at their coldest levels of the year. If we get into a pattern with high pressure to our north, and low pressure to our south, the winds undoubtedly will blow in a easterly to northeasterly flow. This keeps the coast some 10 degrees colder than inland locations. If the low pressure is close enough to us, this introduces cold and damp weather along the coast, which sometimes can persist for days on end.

Every year is different. After 2020, we’ve had a couple very warm and pleasant springs which have arrived either on time or even ahead of schedule. When do we know spring is here? On average, the first thing we notice are crocuses popping up all over the place. You may hear spring birds singing when you leave for work in the morning. Next, is green up. This is when the grass begins to turn green. On average, grass begins to turn green by April 10th around here. Some years sooner than others. If it’s warm enough, we then begin to see forsythia bloom and other flowers such as daffodils and tulips bloom. Some like to push the gardening planning early. April can still bring cold weather and even snow some years. It’s best to begin gardening in May, when the threat of frost is greatly reduced. If it’s warm enough, we begin to see trees blooming by April 20th to the 30th. Leaf out begins in earnest on May 1st and is typically complete by May 15th. I would say after May 15th, we’re in full spring bloom here in Boston. However, I have seen very cool temperatures delay this process by two weeks if not more some years, and very warm years excel this by two weeks or more! Every year is unique.

Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) is calling for warmer than normal temperatures to continue for into April and May. So far, March has been running warmer than normal here in Boston, but not by much. For this year, I’m expecting a cold, unsettled stretch for the first half of April. This often happens when we have a warm, snow-less winter. I believe high latitude blocking will establish itself, suppressing the jet stream further south than normal. This will bring colder than average temperatures to our region, along with the continued chance of inclement weather. Yes, this will include more chances of snow through the first 10 days of April. Places that are seeing much below average snowfall this winter such as Boston, may add to this number before the season is completely done. Thereafter the pattern may relax, allowing warmer sustained spring weather to arrive later in April and May. However, at this point, I am not anticipating an early spring for New England region this year, despite NOAA’s  predictions.

Due to the recent heavy snows, I will be continuing the ski and outdoor activity forecast until further notice. Wow, what a difference the past several weeks have been! After a few major snowstorms, ski resorts have been blessed with deep late season snow depths, and the fun is just beginning! I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Most resorts received one to two feet of snow last Tuesday, with some resorts coming in with close to 4 ft such as Mt. Snow in southern Vermont! The weather for most of this week looks seasonable and dry. However, I am watching next weekend closely for the potential for significant a snowfall later Saturday and into Sunday. March may then go out like a lion with yet another major snowfall early next week. Overall, I’m expecting below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across northern New England for the next 10 days. This means more snow is likely for many locations in this region, and especially higher terrain locations. I’m anticipating spring ski season to continue well into April this year.

Now for our local spring outdoor activity forecast. Our climate in the coastal plain is much different than across the interior of New England and higher terrain locations as spring arrives. Up there, April can still feature heavy snowfalls, and colder temperatures. Meanwhile, here along the coastal plain, spring will begin to arrive with increased solar radiation. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Beautiful first three days, not so much after.

Expect sunny and milder temperatures for the rest of today! It should be a great evening for a walk in the park or local neighborhood. Expect high temperatures to be close to 50 degrees. Tonight should feature fair and milder temperatures. However, with light winds and clear skies, temperatures will still drop into the 20’s and lower 30’s. Warmest in urban locations.

Watch for two beautiful spring days for both Tuesday and Wednesday, with mainly sunny skies and temperatures warming up to between 55 and 60 degrees. Spring fever will be running wild across the city! Tuesday night should feature fair and somewhat milder temperatures compared to tonight.

Enjoy the beautiful early spring weather, the pattern will turn unsettled for the period Thursday through Sunday. Expect periods of rain and cooler weather for Thursday and Friday, with highs mainly in the 40’s. We may get a brief break on Saturday, with dry weather for the first half of the day. However, another storm may be approaching the region later Saturday and into Sunday. This storm may have more cold air to work with, so it’s not entirely out of the question that some areas well north and west of Boston could see some wintry precipitation. I would say north and west of I495 at this point, but that could change depending on how much cold air gets involved.

There’s potential for yet another storm at the start of next week. Computer models are showing a fairly strong storm tracking south of New England Monday night and Tuesday. If there’s enough cold air available, we could be talking accumulating snow even close to the coast this time. If this potential verifies, I will be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! Due to work restrictions, I will not be posting next week. I will update social media in case of any impending storm. In my next post, I will have a more in depth look at our incoming spring patterns. I will also have your Easter Sunday forecast. Wow! Time flies! In the meantime, time to break out the spring jacket, but keep the winter one close by just in case!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete