There’s Still Hope For Indian Summer! 9/24/18

Hello! Welcome to autumn! Fall officially arrived at 9:54 Saturday evening. The weather was fitting, as a gusty wind brought chilly temperatures to most of the region. While Saturday featured a good bit of sun & mild temperatures, Sunday saw a lot of cloudiness, at least down here in southern New England, along with cooler temperatures. One by product of all the high cloudiness around Boston yesterday was a spectacular sunset across the region last evening, with beautiful array of colors which included orange, red, purple and pink!

I was out and about doing errands, and was keeping an eye out on the clouds. Unfortunately, I gave up on the sunset, and did not take a ride over to my favorite spot at Millennium Park in West Roxbury. Boy, was that a mistake! By the time I got home the true colors of the sunset had only then began to span the sky. Even the rare reverse sunset showed up, with pink hues in the eastern sky!

A sharp cold front dropped down from Maine Sunday night, and brought record cold temperatures to northern Maine last night. Some areas had low temperatures down into the teens! Caribou achieved a record low of 25 degrees. Wow! Here in Boston, a gusty northeast wind and temperatures in the low 50’s was a reminder that fall has indeed arrived! Could this be a early sign for the upcoming winter?

Perhaps, but I wouldn’t look into too many signs for the upcoming winter during September. Long range computer models can help give us a better idea what’s going to happen, than signs from Mother Nature at this point. As we move deeper into October and especially November, that’s when I begin to pay close attention to natural signs that Mother Nature freely gives out, as to what the upcoming winter may have in store for us.

Before we get to winter, we still have a whole season of fall to get through! Like spring, fall has seems to have lost some of its luster in recent years. With ocean temperatures so unusually warm off our coast, it seems as if summer has been extending deeper into fall, until the pattern just snaps into winter sometime in January. Once the oceans sufficiently cool off, it also takes them longer to warm up in the spring, helping winter to linger deeper into our spring, which brings annoyance to many. I have been calling this the seasonal shift. The scientific terminology for this phenomenon is latent heating and cooling.

These patterns have thrown off Mother Nature’s timetable too. Leaves have been staying on the trees and not changing colors on time in the fall. In the spring, leaves remain closed, fearing late freezes and unusual late winter storms. Last year was a classic example of this delayed seasonal change. Boston saw its warmest October on record. This delayed the trees changing colors, and in some cases, they never changed at all. When freezes came in November, the leaves just died and fell to the ground. That, and along with black tar leaf disease, brought one of the most lack luster fall foliage seasons in memory around the Boston area.

What about this season? Can we expect another seasonal shift, will warm temperatures extending deep into December? Is the foliage going to peak around Thanksgiving, instead of Halloween? Many have been asking me when we can expect Indian Summer to arrive? These are all very good questions, which I will try and do my best to answer these to the best of my knowledge!

First, what I can see, is a battle of the seasons brewing. While it’s natural to see clashing air masses this time of year, this year appears to be more extreme than in years past. While the oceans are still abnormally warm off our coast, in much of central and northern Canada, winter is already settling in! There already has been several snowfalls in cities as far south as Edmonton in the province of Alberta, Canada!

Most long range computer models are predicting a weak El Nino this winter. If this holds true, winters are typically colder in eastern Canada. As we move deeper into the winter, this cold air begins to slowly press southward into the eastern part of the U.S. At first, this cold air is going to be held back by the warm oceans I spoke about earlier. This will mean a lot of back and forth temperatures as we head into October and first part of November. This period should average close to seasonal norms. Because it’s been so far above normal temperatures, it may actually feel cold at times this October.

Later in November around Thanksgiving time, and heading into December is when I believe things will begin to get very interesting around here. In general, I’m expecting an earlier start to winter this year. I feel that the cold in eastern Canada will be so overpowering, that it may penetrate closer to the coast earlier than previous years. At first, the very warm ocean will put up a fight! With the clashing of the cold air, and very warm water, this could lead to powerful early season nor’easters later in November, and especially in December.

Before we get to that, there is still hope for some Indian Summer! Many friends have been asking me whether we are going to have an Indian Summer this fall. What is Indian Summer? Well, many people have their own interpretation as to what they think Indian Summer is. Some think it’s a period of warm weather after the start of fall. While others think it’s a period of warm weather after the first frost. The true definition of Indian Summer is a period of warm, sunny weather, after the first frost, and after the leaves have fallen. To make this official, this would normally occur sometime later in November or even early December. My own classification of Indian Summer is any period of warm weather after a first frost, which typically happens sometime in October around these parts.

Last year, we had an endless Indian Summer. With October being the warmest on record, we really did not begin to see any frosts until later in October, and mid November in the city. Looking at some of the long range computer data, this year appears to be different. Rather than it being warm all of the time, I’m expecting an overall cooler pattern this October, with brief bursts of warm weather, which may only last a day or two. I’m also expecting frost to make an earlier appearance this year. On average, frost arrives in Boston’s suburbs around the first week in October, but doesn’t make it into the city until about the third week of the month, and not until around November 4th at Logan Airport.

With the chillier weather expected, I’m expecting a more vibrant fall foliage season this year. Last year, we were battling drought, record warm temperatures, and spotted black tar leaf disease. While I am still seeing some black tar disease, it’s definitely not as severe as last year. I’m also expecting cooler weather at the right time, and we’ve had ample amounts of rain to keep the trees healthy. The key now is that we  need some chilly nights to get the trees to start shutting down their sugar intake. I believe this process is beginning, and with a less hostile environment this year, the leaves are going to put on a show we’re accustomed to around here!

So far, good color is beginning to show up across far northern New England. It may be behind right now, but I believe the recent chilly nights will begin to accelerate this process. This ‘color wave’ will begin track south as each week passes. Typically, trees change quickly in the highlands and mountains, then spread south into the valleys and coastal plains. A good rule of thumb is around Columbus Day weekend for central New Hampshire and Berkshires of Massachusetts. In these areas, peak colors come and go within 7 to 10 days. Due to marine influences, areas inside of I95 typically enjoy a full month of colorful trees, changing at various times through the month. On average, peak color slowly pushes through coastal regions the last week of October and first week of November. If the weather cooperates, it can be absolutely breathtaking!

I have already begun to see some trees changing in my neighborhood. Early signs are showing some bright colors. If the weather cooperates with chilly nights, this trend should continue as we head into October, reaching peak color around Halloween. Let’s hope for the best!!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. A northeast wind blowing in off the ocean will maintain low clouds in eastern Massachusetts this afternoon. Across northern New England, it should be mainly sunny. It will be chilly, with high temperatures only in the 50’s region wide, except low 60’s in parts of Connecticut.

Tonight will feature a continuation of the cool weather. Clouds may break at just the right time this evening to view the beautiful  full “Harvest” moon! Try and catch a glimpse! Later on, couds will begin to increase ahead of our next weather system.

A warm front will be approaching New England on Tuesday. At first, this may sound like good news. However, because of the unseasonably chilly air anchored over New England, this will present problems for our weather. The warm air, will ride up and over the cool air, this will create rain. Watch for rain to spread from west to east during the morning hours, reaching the coast by late morning, if not sooner. It will turn into a soaking rain during the afternoon, with heavy downpours. While it won’t warm up too much, it will be noticeably warmer than today, with highs reaching the 60’s.

As the warm front passes through our region tomorrow night, the weather is going to become steamy, with areas of dense fog, and more showers. Temperatures will not fall much from the highs during the day.  in fact, they may even rise overnight.

Wednesday will be one of those days I was talking about earlier, where it will feel like summer again! Watch for muggy weather, with some breaks of sun. It will be warm, with high temperatures spiking to near 80 degrees!

A strong cold front will be approaching the area late in the day. If we see enough breaks of sun, some places, especially across the interior of New England may have some severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon. These storms should weaken as they approach the coastal plain, but a thunderstorm can not be ruled out after 7 pm on Wednesday.

Watch for generally dry and seasonable weather to sweep into New England for the period Thursday through Sunday. A small system passing to our south may bring a slight chance of some showers Friday night into early Saturday, otherwise, it’s looking fairly dry at this point. Temperatures should generally be in the 60’s and low 70’s during the day, and 50’s at night. Fairly seasonable to perhaps a bit above, but pleasant weather nonetheless.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my summer review, and give myself a grade! I will also have a preview of October, and review September. I will also have a new fall foliage report, and talk about the upcoming fall weather patterns. In the meantime, if you love summer, start praying for Indian Summer…the countdown to winter has begun!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Birthday tomorrow to my nephew, Nicholas!~

Who’s Ready For Autumn? 9/17/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! While Sunday was a stellar late summer day, I was a bit dismayed at how stubborn the low clouds and fog persisted on Saturday. In the end, the sun finally burned through, albeit way later than I originally planned. Nonetheless, it did turn out to be a fine afternoon, with warm temperatures, and a tropical looking sky. Yesterday turned almost hot, with many communities heating up into the mid to upper 80’s, with some touching 90,  with moderate humidity levels. A fine beach day for mid September…just don’t go into the water!

As has been the theme this summer, the weather this past week turned out to be much more fickle than I anticipated. A wavy weather front in the area separated extreme humidity to our south, with cooler, maritime weather to our north and east. This resulted in areas of dense fog, cool easterly winds, and periods of heavy rain last Monday night, then again on Wednesday. Sandwiched in between were some nice days as well, on Tuesday, later Thursday, then again over the weekend. No excuses here, just New England weather doing what it wants to do, despite what computer models say.

Well, it finally happened. The inevitable death as a result of a great white shark attack. The tragedy occurred in Wellfleet, on Cape Cod. Despite the warning signs, and other swimmers encountering close calls, the 26 year old man ventured out with his boogie board, about 30 yards off the beach when he was viciously attacked and fatally wounded. I don’t blame the shark. We’re entering their world. These fish are the largest predators in our ocean, looking for food. It’s been said before, the shark can not decipher whether the boogie board is a human, or a seal out for leisurely afternoon swim. This was the first fatal attack by a great white shark in Massachusetts since 1936, when a 16 year old boy was killed off Mattapoisett, in Buzzards Bay.

Speaking of seals, the population off the New England coast is exploding. At one point, seals were hunted in Massachusetts, and were given $5 for each kill. The bounty ended in 1972, when Marine Mammal Protection Act was signed, ending the bounty to the nearly extinct mammal. Since then, population of the curious creature has ballooned to between 30.000 and 50.000 off the southeast coast of Massachusetts.*

What does this mean? Well, seal watching tours and tourists in general have been enjoying near guaranteed viewing results, as people flock to catch a glimpse of playful mammals. Many people enjoy watching them. However, many fisherman and even folks who live close by where they conjugate feel otherwise. The fisherman say the seal’s are stealing their fish. The residents say they’re just too many of them, taking beach space away from them.

The fishermen & residents have advocated for a control hunt, to keep populations in check. Meanwhile, conservationists are applauding the recovery, claiming that it has been a miracle that the animal has recovered so well, calling it a “conservation success.” I can see both sides to the argument.

So why are the sharks here? Undoubtedly, the explosion in the seal population is probably at the root of the problem. The unprecedented warm ocean temperatures off our coast is no doubt also a contributor, as sharks like warm water. With the death of a person, this has become a  public safety hazard. At some point, something has to give. If we weren’t here, nature would just let it work itself out. Not to compare sharks to rats, but if a town had a rodent infestation issue, they would exterminate the rats. I’m not sure what the solution is, but things have gotten out of control. Watch for a clash between conservationists and government officials at some point soon regarding this issue.

Shark rant over, back to our weather! It doesn’t seem like it, but the autumnal equinox will arrive this Saturday, September 22nd at 9:54 PM! So far, we have seen very little in the way of autumn weather. In all fairness, it’s still officially summer. And what a summer it has been! Boston is still in line with having our third hottest summer on record, among all the other warm weather records we have broken. It was also the muggiest summer’s on record.

You would think it would begin to cool down here in September. While the averages have come down, summertime warmth continues unabated here into mid September. This is on top of the warmest start to September in Boston weather history. Do I see summer continuing for the rest of September, October and part of November like last year? The short answer to this question is, no! At least I don’t believe so. I would like to think not, and I do have evidence that it won’t, but this heat has been very resilient this year…so one never knows for sure.

However, there is growing support that a shift in the pattern is on the way. Nothing major just yet, but a shift to more seasonal weather looks to be on the way, nonetheless. I’m pleased to announce, for folks that enjoy fall weather, that I’m very confident that New England will experience a traditional fall this year! This means apple picking, fall festivals, searching for the perfect pumpkin, and fall foliage trips, without thinking that this would of also been a perfect beach day!

For the rest of September I’m expecting cooler temperatures to invade New England with some chilly nights. This will lead us into a more typical October, with temperatures much closer to seasonal levels, if not a touch below. You can expect frost to arrive close to seasonal averages this year. In most cases, frost in September is confined to northern New England, and the deep interior of southern New England. However, as move into October, this progresses towards the rest of New England. First, interior eastern Massachusetts typically sees their first frost the first week of October, with the rest of us closer to the coast the last week of October. Some locations right on the ocean may not see their first freeze until the first week of November.

By the way, with the cooler temperatures, I’m expecting an early arrival to winter this year. You will be hearing talk of snow if not in October, then surely by November. This is mainly for interior New England, but would not be surprised if the coast saw snow in November this year. More on this in future posts!

With more seasonal temperatures expected, I’m also expecting to see a better fall foliage season this year! You may already be seeing some leaves beginning to turn around the area. While these may be pretty to look at, these trees are distressed, and often begin changing color in late August. The real foliage is beginning up across way up in northern New England., northern Maine. Here, the frosts come early, and the trees change quickly, with peak fall colors typically occurring the last few days of September and start of October. Last year was not a good season. Drought, and very warm weather prevented the leaves from changing much later than typical times. With the colder temperatures expected later this month, watch the foliage season to flourish quickly, and begin to rapidly head south!

Here’s your last beach and boating forecast of the season! Camping forecast will be incorporated into the general weekly forecast. If you love the beach…I’m sorry to say your days are numbered! In fact, today could be it! I hope some of you were able to get out this past weekend to enjoy summer’s last hurrah! It was a great summer! Look for mainly sunny and warm weather at area beaches today, with light winds, warm ocean temperatures, with temperatures near 80. Flooding rains from Florence will mark the end of summer tomorrow. Cool winds will follow the storm, with a possible brief spike in temperatures come Friday, followed by more cool weather this weekend, and for the foreseeable future. With Florence passing through tomorrow, please be aware of rough seas for you boaters. Expect choppy seas for the rest of the week with frontal passages and shifting winds.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. As mentioned above, get out and enjoy the summer like warm temperatures today! Watch for mainly sunny weather. However, you will notice high cirrus clouds on the increase during the afternoon. It will be warm and more muggy, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80’s region wide. Clouds will thicken overnight, it will remain warm and muggy with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Tuesday will be an eventful day. The remnants of Florence is going to track through southern New England. Right now, the center of the storm is forecasted to track across the south coast of New England. At one point, Florence dropped between 30 and 40″ of rain in the Carolinas. While weaker, the package of moisture still associated with the storm will be tracking across our region tomorrow. Therefore, expect a warm, tropical feel to the day.

Tropical showers may fall at any point during the day from 7 AM to 5 PM, but the worst looks to be between 11 AM and 4 PM around Boston. During this time, you can expect torrential downpours, with flooding of poor drainage areas. There’s the potential of between 2 and 4″ of rain to fall in Boston tomorrow, with up to 6″ in isolated locations to the north of the city. There’s also the potential of isolated severe thunderstorms, so please monitor local broadcasts.

The storm will move offshore later in the afternoon, around Boston. Showers will slowly exit Cape Cod during evening, and end. Winds will shift to the north later at night, and keep a moist flow across most of our area though much of Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs only in the 60’s, along with some areas of drizzle. Just to cover myself, there’s always a chance skies clear earlier, with decent weather for the afternoon.

Wednesday night will feature clearing skies, and cooler weather, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Thursday looks like a nice day at this point, with mainly sunny skies, but with highs only in the upper 60’s at best.

A warm front may move across the region Friday, briefly bringing back warmer temperatures.  But a strong cold front will be sweeping across the region later on in the day, bringing with it the chance of some showers. Cooler weather will then settle in over the weekend. Another cold front may sweep across the region later Saturday, bringing with it the arrival of autumn! Watch for chilly temperature to greet you Sunday morning, with lows in the upper 30’s and 40’s from north to south. As always, warmest temperatures will be in urban areas, coldest in rural locations. Mother Nature’s timing is impeccable!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking a little bit at what I’m seeing for our winter this year. I will also let you know whether we are in the clear for any tropical activity. I will also have a update on our autumn weather, and a new fall foliage and camping forecast! In the meantime, don’t be sad that summer is ending. Be happy that we had such a glorious season!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

*Some information derived from NPR news.

It’s All About Flo! 9/10/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! For once, the weather was seasonal for this time of year. After an astounding 75 straight days, Boston’s temperature finally dipped below 60 degrees. This was good enough for second place, only behind the record of 80 straight days set back in 1983. There was definitely a fall feel to the air, with many suburban communities dipping down into the 40’s. In fact, there was even some frost way up across parts of northern Maine. While this may seem early to us down here, it was actually about when they would expect it up there. This is where it begins. As the weeks go by, frost levels begin sinking south towards Massachusetts then beyond, as we head into October. Though there was limited sunshine, there was no rain, so many outdoor activities went off without a hitch.

The cooler breezes were a welcome change, for many. As I had mentioned in previous posts, this summer far exceeded most expectations regarding the heat. I’m not going to announce all the records again, I think we’ve covered them all. However, I did want to say, with last weeks surge, we added three more 90 degree days to tally, bringing us to a whopping total of 23 days of 90 degree temperatures this summer! In addition, this was the hottest first week of September on record here in Boston, this coming off the hottest August on record. This was also the third hottest summer ever recorded in the city of Boston. Good grief!

I like to talk about how Mother Nature balance things out. She’s certainly making up for lost time this summer. This reminds me of how winter seemed to keep lingering deep into the spring this year, with many folks wondering when will it ever end? Well, this is the summer version of that! I for one, have had enough! While I love all the seasons in New England, without a doubt winter is my favorite. Autumn is a close second, well, because winter follows it! I also love summer too, but not to this extent! I can now see what folks were feeling when winter refused to leave this past spring!

Now that we’re heading towards mid September, can we finally say goodbye to summer and welcome autumn into our lives? The chilly weather this past weekend would make you think yes! I see many folks out there actually looking forward to the change of seasons. However, Mother Nature still has a few tricks up her sleeve.

Like many seasonal forecasts as of late, this fall will comes with its challenges. Because of a developing El Nino, and other global factors, I believe we are in the beginning stages of some extreme weather patterns taking hold of much of the U.S. This includes us here in New England. Though I will be touching base on the winter outlook from time to time, my initial focus will be on our upcoming autumn season.

Last fall, if you recall, was all about the endless summer we experienced.  After a very warm September, October featured all time record warmth in much of our region. In stark contrast, November turned chilly, with near to slightly below average temperatures. Unusual warmth then returned and persisted through Christmas Eve last year. A sharp cold front brought snow Christmas morning, then an abrupt cold snap plunged us into the deep freezer to end up the year.

While many things appear to be the same, there are some differences from last year beginning to show up. Unusually warm ocean temperatures continue to plague our typical weather patterns, especially here in New England. Over the past several years, unusual warm ocean temperatures has been preventing typical fall weather from arriving. Seasonal shifts are running a good one to two months displaced from normal. This means autumn does not arrive until around mid November or even December, and winter not arriving full force until sometime in January or in some cases like last year until March! Once the ocean finally cools off sometime in February, inter then tends to linger deeper into our spring. This process is called latent heating and cooling, and has a profound effect on our climate.

This year, once again, we have even warmer ocean temperatures sitting off our coast! While this may protect us from early chill of autumn, I believe this abnormally warm ocean water will act as fuel to intensify strong nor’easters later this fall and into this winter. As of this point, I’m expecting the warmer than normal September to continue, along with some brief interruptions of chilly air, much like we just had.

Expect this pattern to persist into the first half of October, then I believe a change to more typical autumn weather may finally arrive into the New England for the second half of October heading into November. This means frosts should be on time, with typical end of growing seasons. On average, frost occurs across the interior of New England first, then struggles to reach the coastline as we get deeper into fall. Far interior locations can begin to see frosts starting now. Later in September, this spreads to many other locations across northern and even western New England, including the Berkshires. Early October is typical for interior Massachusetts, including many of Boston’s suburbs. Later October, frost can be seen across much of eastern Massachusetts, except right along the water, including Logan Airport, which sometimes does not see 32 degrees until sometime during the first week of November.

Along with the cooler temperatures expected, I believe many of us will see our first accumulation of snow this November. Winter may arrive with a vengeance early this year, beginning right around Thanksgiving. Again, it’s a tricky forecast. I believe the fall will be cooler this year, because we have a developing weak El Nino (warm water in the Pacific Ocean, off South America). This should promote a trough of low pressure (cold & stormy) to develop earlier across the eastern part of the U.S.later this fall.

Before then, we have a serious hurricane to contend with! Fortunately, a strong blocking ridge of high pressure is going to block Florence from making the turn and head up the coast. Instead, this block, that I have been talking about all summer, is going to track Florence on a west northwest path, straight into the Carolinas. At this point, the exact location of landfall is unknown, but people in this region of the country need to be making preparations for a severe storm to strike withing 72 hours from now!

After meandering around in the central Atlantic all weekend, Florence is on the move! Strong shear was inhibiting Flo from intensifying over the weekend. However, Flo is now beginning to track west, heading towards the southeast coast of the United States. In addition, the upper level pattern has improved , making it a less hostile environment for Flo to strengthen. She is also tracking over ocean temperatures which are running in the mid 80’s, plenty warmer enough for hurricanes to maintain and gain strength. According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, Florence has now increased in intensity, and is now a dangerous category 4 hurricane, with winds of up to 140 mph. It would not shock me if Flo briefly attained category 5 status,with winds in excess of 150 mph, before weakening slightly back to a category 4 before making landfall.

This is going to be a dangerous storm, similar to the likes of Hugo that struck South Carolina back in 1989. However, unlike Hugo, Florence is expected to stall along the coast, and possibly dump excessive amounts of rain to the tune of 10 to 15″ along the coast and 20 to 30″ across the interior foothills and mountains, possibly higher, across the Carolinas. Along the coast, people can expect winds of up to 130 mph, and coast surge of up to 15 ft. This is going to be a very dangerous storm, with life threatening conditions. Please listen to emergency management officials for evacuation plans and storm preparedness instructions. These are highly trained people who are here to help. If you stay, you run the risk of endangering these people, and also loss of your own life.

A couple takeaways. Remember when I said this will be a less than active season, but it only takes one storm to result in billions of dollars in damages…this is the storm. The storm is one of several in the Atlantic, which are forming on the peak of hurricane season, which happens to be today, September 10th. Is this storm unusual? No, this region has seen many hurricanes and tropical storms strike over the course of history. It will blow through, they will rebuild, and they will recover. As long as they take the necessary precautions, there will be minimal loss of life. Please be responsible and prepare to seek shelter from now!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. Despite Florence to our south, and rain later today, I will give this week a 7 out of 10. Expect cloudy and cool weather for the balance of this afternoon, with highs mainly in the 60’s. There may be some showers passing through at any point during the afternoon.

As it becomes more muggy overnight, we will also experience periods of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms crossing the region. Some of these showers may contain torrential downpours and flooding of poor drainage areas.

Looks like back to old habits on Tuesday, with the weather becoming very muggy. We will have more breaks of sun than today, but we will still run the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms at any time during the day, but especially during the maximum heating of the day during the afternoon. It will become warm and muggy, with highs ranging from 80 to 85 degrees.

After some evening thunderstorms dissipate, expect a warm and muggy night, with lows not falling below 70 degrees here in Boston.

As of this point, it looks like the weather should remain warm for the period of Wednesday through Sunday. With no cold fronts in sight, this also means the return of unusually muggy weather during this period. Expect high temperatures to be in the upper 70’s along the coast and lower to middle 80’s inland. As some storms pass north of our region, there’s always a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms, especially in this warm air mass, but no washouts are anticipated at this time. Also, be on the lookout for large swells and rip currents crashing into the south coast beaches of New England, emanating from hurricane Florence.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my first fall foliage report of the season! I have already seen a few leaves changing here and there! Because it’s been so warm, I may also have one or two more beach and boating forecasts. I will also have a new camping and hiking forecast, as this is the season. In the meantime, thoughts and prayers go out for all the people dealing with Florence, and let’s all be grateful it’s not us here in New England!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

We

Hot Labor Day…Cold Winter? 9/3/18

Hello! Happy Labor Day! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! I’m very pleased that the forecast from last Monday did not turn out the way some computer models were portraying. Not that I called for a washout, but it was looking quite sketchy when the forecast was made last Monday.

Many are enjoying a very pleasant weekend, with warm temperatures and low levels of humidity. However, you may of felt humidity levels begin to rise, especially Sunday afternoon.

This is a far cry as to what we went through last week. Last Wednesday, for example, tied for the hottest day of the year, when temperatures soared to 98 degrees in Boston. The last time it reached this temperature in Boston was back on July 3rd.

However, many believed this past Wednesday actually felt hotter than July 3rd, making this day the hottest day of the summer. And they have valid reasoning to back that statement up!

Dew point levels were actually higher than July 3rd, making heat indices as high as 105 degrees in Boston! This is about as hot as it gets around these parts!

On and on it goes. Summer 2018 has surpassed many milestones, and it’s not over yet! According to the NWS, this was the 3rd hottest summer on record!

I always mention how I rate how hot summers are by how many 90 degree days we hit. Average is 14. After this week, Boston is going to have hit 90 or better a whopping 22 or 23 times this summer!

We all know how my summer forecast worked out! Not so good this year! As many know, my specialty is winter forecasting, not summer! With that being said, I place just as strong of an effort into the summer forecast as I do for winter.

Everything was good through July, and looked to be on track. As we neared August, I began to become concerned with my forecast, as computer models kept the heat coming.

As it turned out, August turned into a run away freight train, becoming the hottest August on record! This outcome surprised not only me, but many experienced meteorologists from around the area, as well. Some communities also received flooding rains, making a very hot and wet month.

But that’s only half the story. Overnight low temperatures have also broken records. Boston broke a record, for temperatures not falling below 70 degrees for 30 nights this summer, with more coming this week! My goodness!

WBZ channel 4 meteorologist Eric Fisher had a theory as to why overnight low temperatures are on the rise. He believes green house gases are not allowing radiation cooling to effectively cool off the urban areas, especially during the summer months.

According to Fisher, it’s not only reserved for urban areas. Mt. Washington has observed overnight low temperatures on the rise as well.

Then there’s the record of 80 degree days that we’re threatening to break. So far, Boston has seen 70 days of 80 degree weather this year. Would you believe every day of month in July recorded 80 degrees or higher for high temperatures, making it the 7th hottest July on record.

With September just starting, I do believe we still have a shot at this record. We can still see a handful of 80’s even into October some years, so the record is certainly within reach.

And that’s not all of it. The very worst part about this summer has been the dew point temperatures. With Boston being in the oppressive zone for more hours than any other summer,  this will go down as the muggiest summer on record in here in Boston. Just so you know, the dew point temperature is the temperature which measures the amount of water vapor in the air. The higher the dew point temperature is, the more uncomfortable we feel.

Anything over 70 degrees, is oppressive. So far this summer, Boston has logged in over 70 hours of oppressive dew points. This may not sound like a lot, but we typically only see around 30 hours!

Good grief. The statistics are staggering. Even if you’re not a global warming believer, these numbers have to raise some questions within all of us.

There are no clear cut answers here. Mother Nature is fickle. Things can change quickly. However, despite the cold of last winter, more months have averaged above normal than not here in Boston for the better part of three years now.

Why has it been so warm, for so long? Very difficult to say, for sure. My original thoughts were that the ocean temperatures go in cycles, and that we’re in a very warm cycle right now, keeping coastal locations warmer than normal, and melting ice caps.

Eventually, the oceans are going to cool, and the cycle will reverse. However, one thing that undeniable…if the oceans continue to warm at the rate they’re going, the consequences could be severe here on earth.

Some may ask, Pete, what’s so happy about Labor Day? There’s not much to look forward to from here on in. It’s back to work, autumn is encroaching, and the prospects of another long, cold New England winter ahead, is well, depressing to say the least for a lot of folks.

No worries! I’m here to make you feel better! How, you may ask? First, it’s only Labor Day!  While this may be the unofficial end of summer, astronomical summer does no end until September 22nd…so you still have a good few weeks of summer left! Second, we are looking at a very warm few days ahead of us, with temperatures feeling very much like the middle of summer. Third, I see no sustained ‘autumn chill’ in our future. Yes, there are going to be a couple ‘cool snaps’ now and again, it’s September after all. But from what I can see, it’s looking like yet another warm September for our region. This should buy you at least another month without thinking about turning the heat on, or breaking out the warm jackets! Feeling any better?

Overall, I’m forecasting a continuation of the summer pattern through September. This means I’m expecting above average temperatures this month. This would make it the third above normal month in a row here in Boston, and the last 3 out of 4. With tropical activity increasing, I’m also expecting above average amounts of rain this September.

We’ll see how this all pans out for our foliage season. The season is very much in question at this early juncture. As you know, it takes a perfect balance of temperature, precipitation and sunlight to bring out the best colors. It’s hard to say how the leaves are going to react this year. While ample rainfall is generally a good thing, too much can bring out a fungus. Temperatures are also a concern. Many locations have seen a top 5 warmest summer on record. If this unusually warm weather continues into the fall, it will undoubtedly affect the color of the leaves, and when they change. What we need is cool, crisp nights, followed by mild sunny days. Light frosts also help bring out the brightest colors, something that was missing last fall for sure.

Unlike last year, I do see less of the dreaded black tar disease, which is really good news! This attacked the maple trees, causing black tarry marks on the leaves. As peak foliage arrived, the leaves dried up, and fell off the trees. The end result was one of the worst fall foliage seasons in decades around here. There were other factors, such as the record warmest October ever recorded in Boston. The ongoing drought did not help the situation at all. I will be closely monitoring our fall foliage season, with updates beginning in just a couple weeks!

With all this talk about record warm weather, you would think the winter would be mild too? Why would I say a hot Labor Day could mean a cold winter? Well, the pattern which brings us a warm summer and fall, typically is tied into above average ocean temperatures off our coast. This same above average temperatures actually attract the cold air towards the coast in the winter. So what’s your friend now, becomes your foe later in the year! In fact, if these abnormally warm ocean temperatures persist into the upcoming winter, early indications to me suggest a severe winter could be on the table for eastern New England this winter.

A lot hinges on whether a El Nino develops, and just how strong it becomes. The idea is if the El Nino develops, it will supply an active sub tropical jet stream (warm & moisture). If the El Nino becomes too strong, the sub tropical jet becomes dominant, and would bring warm, wet rainstorms to much of New England. However, if it remains weaker, the northern polar jet stream (energy & cold) would remain active and interact with the southern jet stream. Meteorologists call this phasing. If these two jet streams phase off the east coast, over the abnormally warm water, this is when the Mid Atlantic region and New England can experience explosive nor’easters, with excessive amounts of snowfall. This happened several times last winter across New England, especially in March across interior locations.

Just because the climate is warming, does not mean there will be no more snow! In fact, I believe it’s just the opposite! These storms are becoming larger, more severe, and bringing record amounts of snowfall. With the added water vapor available from the warm oceans, these storms are capable of delivering crippling amounts of snowfall. In winters like I see coming, in extreme patterns, we only need the cold air to mix at the right time with the moisture, to bring paralyzing amounts of snow to cities along the east coast! Stay tuned in the coming weeks for many more details regarding this upcoming winter!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity summer forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Wow! The amazing weather continues!

Expect mainly sunny weather for the rest of your Labor Day. It will be turning hot, with high temperatures heating up to the lower 90’s across much of the region. The NWS has issued an excessive heat advisory, with real feel temperatures near 100. If you are seeking relief, head towards the ocean, where a very light sea breeze may keep temperatures about 5 degrees cooler.

Tonight will feature fair weather, with lows in the 60’s in rural areas, and near 70 in Boston.

Watch for shifting winds on Tuesday. A backdoor cold front sliding down from the north, may shift winds to the northeast from Boston area points north. If this does happen, expect the high temperatures of near 90 degrees to occur early in the day, only to cool off to the upper 70’s by days end? Wow, that would be refreshing! With this contrast in airmasses, there’s always a chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm scattered across the region.

Generally fair weather will continue tomorrow night and into Wednesday. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 60’s tomorrow night, and highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the mid 80’s with onshore breezes along the coast. Watch for areas of patchy dense fog, especially across southeastern Mass. and the Cape.

Shifting winds to the southwest on Thursday will drive temperatures back up into the 90’s. As a cold front approaches, there may be some scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day and at night. The front may stall just off our coast, which may allow showers to linger across the Cape. Otherwise, expect clearing skies and cooler weather to filter into New England, with highs mainly in the 70’s. A touch of fall may be in the air Friday night and early Saturday, with lows mainly in the 50’s. If Boston drops below 60 degrees, it will be for the first time in about two months! Expect similar weather on Saturday.

An approaching warm front may bring some showers overnight on Saturday? Otherwise, expect a mixture of clouds and sun on Sunday, with highs near. We may warm up all over again next week, with another day or two of 90 not out of the question.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing in on the tropics. After a very quiet season so far, the tropics are becoming very active. In fact, at this time next week, we may be dealing with Hurricane Florence approaching the east coast! This storm may or may not pose a threat to us here in New England. If I see a threat, I may post an update. My goodness, so much to talk about! I will also post my fall forecast, as well as a new camping, beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, while you may think it’s fall now, Mother Nature has different ideas for now! Enjoy!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer Sizzler! 8/27/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a summery weekend, with Sunday being the warmer and sunnier of the two days. Both Days featured delightful low humidity levels, although it did begin to feel a little more sticky on Sunday.

I hope you enjoyed the break…mid summer heat and humidity comes roaring back this week, in what could become the hottest week of the summer!

I know I say it from time to time, and then end up writing a full post anyway, but today I’m very short on time, therefore an abbreviated post will have to do for today!

So today happens to be my birthday! I’m very grateful for everything up to this point in my life, and look forward to more adventures and happy times in the future!

My family threw a fabulous party for me last evening! We all gathered at my mom’s house, which also included special guests like my niece Alex from New York City, as well as my other nieces and nephew who came up from the Cape to attend the party!

To celebrate, I’m planning on heading out to Mt. Monadnock for a hike with my brother in law Michael. Two things I love to do on my birthday is to go hiking, or salt water fishing! This year, I opted for the scenic views in beautiful New Hampshire!

Getting back to our weather, remember that summer forecast that I threw into the trash a couple weeks ago, only to retrieve back last week? Today, I’m not only throwing it away again, I’m also throwing a match in the can for good measure.

Wow…this summer has exceeded my expectations in terms of 90 degree days. The good news is that it appears like I’m the only one who seems to be upset about how this evolved.

If I called for 0ver 20 ninety degree days and we only got 10, there probably be some grumbling out there. This is all good! I’m happy that the summer turned out hotter than expected.

I call it the summer version of winter. Remember how long winter lingered into spring this year? The difference is most people don’t care for winter, so you don’t hear to many folks complaining about the abnormally hot summer this year.

I don’t have the time today to get into the technical aspects of why we are having such a warm summer, but needless to say, this summer is in no hurry to leave, likely lingering until at least mid September!

So how hot has it been? Well, if we base it on just how many 90 degree days we have seen, we currently stand at 16 days. On average, Boston receives 14 days.

So you may say, Pete, you called for between 10 and 14 days, you are not that far off. That would be all fine and good if summer ended today.

But today is the first day of a four day heat wave here in Boston. This means we can tack on another 4 days to this total, which would bring us to 20 for the season. If we do indeed reach 20 days, it would only be the 7 th time since records began in Boston, where we reached 20 ninety degree days or more in a season.

If it doesn’t happen in August, we typically see at least one or two 90 degree days during September. Looking at some of the long range computer model data, it’s looking like at least the first two weeks of September are looking to feature above average temperatures. So it would not shock me if new added a few more 90 degree days.

It’s not just the 90 degree days. We’re breaking warm records all over the place. We are on the verge of breaking the most nights with a low temperature failing to fall below 70 degrees.

We have also had a record number of days of temperatures reaching 80 degrees or higher. Boston is currently on track for having the warmest August on record, breaking the record from ony three years ago!

On and on it goes. While the first couple months of my summer forecast were on point, the wheels came off here in August. I always said August was the wildcard. I did see that the heat could persist into the month, but certainly had no idea how overwhelming it has turned out. Certainly a record breaker!

Here is your weekly camping, beach and boating forecast. If you love summer, this is going to be the week for you, at least through Thursday. Expect sunny and hot weather from today through Thursday.

Possibly even a bit too hot for camping? Head for the beach or lake! A cold front will pass through later Thursday, bringing a chance of a few thunderstorms rolling through, and an end of our four day heat wave. Next weekend is still uncertain.

That same front may stall off the coast, leading to some inclement weather over the Labor Day weekend. This could change, so check in with local media outlets for the latest forecast.

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity and vacation forecast. I will rate this week an 7 out of 10. For the period of today through Thursday, expect hazy, hot and humid conditions.

While temperatures will remain in check today with highs hovering near 90, excessive heat warnings may need to be posted for temperature between 95 and 100 degrees both tomorrow and again on Wednesday.

Depending on wind direction, there’s a chance that the city of Boston flirts with the century mark both tomorrow and Wednesday. If we surpass 98 degrees, this would make it the hottest temperature of the summer!

Temperatures on Thursday will still be hot before the front arrives. If it arrives with a lot of cloudiness, temperatures may struggle to reach 90. However, there are indications the front will be delayed, and with enough sun, temperatures may once again soar to the mid 90’s!

In addition, along with the blistering temperatures, humidity levels are going to be oppressive. This, in combination with temperatures of at least in the mid 90’s, are going to lead to heat indices of between 100 and 105 degrees! Take it slow, drink plenty of fluids, check on the elderly and your pets. This too shall pass.

A cool front will be approaching on Thursday. As this front approaches, it may generates some showers and thunderstorms across the region. After this front passes, temperatures will cool back into the 70’s on Friday and Saturday. As mentioned above, there may be some additional showers on both days

Sunday will turn warmer. At this point, it looks like it may be somewhat inclement with a chance of  a few showers both Sunday and Monday. I am not expecting a washout at this point. It could also easily be dry.

I wish I could be more definitive with this Labor Day forecast. While it doesn’t look like great beach weather, I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans just yet.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a look at the tropics. Tropical experts are now expecting tropical activity to increase in the Atlantic starting around Labor Day.

Remember, with ocean temperatures so much above normal, and given the current pattern, I feel New England is vulnerable for a hurricane sometime this September.

I will monitor and give everyone an update next week. I will also have a preliminary fall forecast. In the meantime, it’s been a summer sizzler…better than a summer fizzler!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy Birthday to my niece, Alex!!

Cooler…But Summah’s Not Ovah! 8/20/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After what seemed like an endless streak of beautiful weekends, this was now the second unsettled one in a row. It wasn’t a washout or anything, but very changeable to say the least!

After a steamy Saturday, thunderstorms barreled across the region, bringing torrential rain, vivid lightning, and some strong winds to areas south of Boston, and certain parts of Cape Cod.

I was down in Falmouth on Saturday, and had a good view seeing the intense storm pass just to my north. It was amazing seeing the bolts of lightning, and hearing the thunder pass by over the harbor, without running for cover from the rain!

While it may be fascinating to witness Mother Nature in action, this is not what I would recommend doing! I should of advised the friends I was with to take shelter! I always preach what the NWS says, “when thunder roars, head indoors!”

But why do they say this? Well, have you ever heard the saying after you see lightning, to count how long until you hear the thunder? This will tell you how far away the storm is from you.

Well, it turns out this is true! Since light travels much faster than sound, you can tell how far away the storm is away from you after you hear the thunder.

Due to rapid expansion of air, thunder is actually a by product of a lightning bolt! When lightning and thunder occur together, you know the storm is right overhead!

Also, it’s very dangerous to be standing in open areas when lightning storms are nearby. Lightning is attracted to high object, such as church steeples, trees, and people!

So, despite me knowing all of these things I have learned over the course of my entire life, I just sat there watching with all the other people!

Sunday brought a taste of September to the region, with cooler northeast winds. While northern New England enjoyed mainly sunny skies, low clouds streamed in off the ocean across southeastern Mass and especially the Cape, making for a rather cloudy, gray day.

So this is it, right? Time to pull out the sweat tops, and get ready for apple picking, and fall foliage, right? NO!!!

If you passed through your local market lately, you would think that Halloween is coming up at the end of the week. Yes, corporate marketing departments are forcing holidays down our throats earlier and earlier.

Halloween is still a good two and a half months away, yet markets have their shelves stocked to the ceiling with Halloween candy…good grief.

While it may feel like fall for a few days this week, I can assure you, summer is not quite done with us just yet! A slight relaxation to their Bermuda high is allowing for some cooler and dryer air to penetrate New England for a few days this week.

However, it appears as if the Bermuda high is going to strengthen once again heading into the last week of August, and at least the first week of September, bringing with heat one last surge of summertime heat!

Will it be the last hurrah of summer, or will it just keep going deep into fall as the previous several years? The trend for warmer than normal Septembers has been the case over the last several years here in New England.

Last year, Mother Nature took October away from folks who love cool autumn weather, bringing the warmest October on record for many here in New England.

I was chatting with my sister Valerie the other night, reminiscing about the unusual weather as of late. She pointed out to me that we did not have a fall foliage season last year, that the leaves basically just went from green to brown, or just fell off the trees prematurely.

This was So true! Last autumn saw outrageously warm temperatures. This had major consequences to our fall foliage season. It was a three headed monster that did us in.

First, the abnormally warm weather, second, the ongoing drought, and third was the awful black tar fungus disease. These three factors resulted in one of the worst fall foliage seasons on record, especially around the Boston area.

So far, things are looking better this year. As far as I know, there is no black tar fungus disease, and we’ve had plenty of rain this year, so that’s not going to be a problem. The only wildcard is just how long these abnormally warm temperatures are going to persist heading into the autumn season.

Boston is now up to 15 days of 90 degree + temperatures this summer. As I have mentioned in the past, the average is 14. It would not surprise me if we see another  2 or 3 more 90 degree days. September averages 0ne in Boston, anyway. If you’re looking for a really hot summer, 1983 holds the record in Boston with 30 days reaching 90 degrees. Wow!

What’s been even more impressive has been the amazingly warm overnight low temperatures. The Great Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Mass has broken the record for the number of nights where the temperature failed to drop below 70 degrees, which now stands at 17, breaking the old record of 16 set back in 1988. Boston has seen a total of 26 nights so far, only four off the record set back in, you guessed it, 1983!

So it’s been a very warm to hot summer, in some cases record breaking. It’s hard to say how long the summer band wagon will continue rolling along. Ocean temperatures are telling me why change the trend from the past several years?

However, there are several computer models predicting a change to more typical fall like weather to arrive sometime during the middle of September.

Over the years,  I have come to find out you just can’t trust these medium range forecasts any more. The long range seasonal forecasts actually do a better job! This leaves me with using my intuition, experience and studying global trends.

Based upon what I’m seeing at this early juncture, I believe it’s going to stay warm up until about the middle of September, then a change in the global patterns will usher in the first cool winds of autumn, very close to the actual first day of astronomical fall!

Thereafter, I’m expecting a cooler autumn, and a return to a fine foliage season for most of New England! We can only hope!

With all that being said, it’s going to take quite a pattern shake up to overtake the abnormally warm ocean temperatures off our coast. The warm temperatures could prevent fall from arriving again this year. Something I will be monitoring very closely over the next several weeks.

Here’s your weekly beach, boating and camping forecast. I think this shaping up to be another pretty good week. Not perfect, but improving as we go along. Look for best beach days to be on Tuesday, then again Thursday through Sunday.

Watch out boaters the rest of today for northeast winds & choppy seas, then again for rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday. It should be fine thereafter, with pleasant boating weather. Looks like a comfortable week for camping, though watch out for rain on Wednesday!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity and vacation forecast. I would rate this week a 7 out of 10. A couple shaky days, then nice! Look for northeast winds today, and continuation for cool temperatures, with highs mainly in the low 70’s.

While there may be a few splashes of sunshine, look for a lot of low clouds rolling in from the ocean, along with the chance of some areas of patchy drizzle and light showers, especially south of Boston and the Cape.

Expect similar weather tomorrow night, with a marine flow influencing our weather. This means areas of patchy fog, drizzle and low cloudiness.

A stronger northerly push coming down from Maine means somewhat better weather for Tuesday. After morning fog and some drizzle especially on the Cape, watch for more sunshine, with highs mainly in the upper 70’s.

Tuesday night looks generally fair, although low clouds and fog may persist down on the Cape and some coastal locations. Otherwise, clouds will tend to increase across the rest of the region. Lows will mainly be in the 60’s.

I’m expecting a warmer and more humid day on Wednesday. With the muggy feel to the air, temperatures will respond into the lower 80’s. As a cold front approaches from the west, watch for rain and the potential of thunderstorms moving across the region during the day. Some of these storms may turn severe, so please monitor local statements on this potential dangerous situation.

Now for the good news…that cold front giving us the inclement weather on Wednesday will push out all the muggy air, and usher in a delightful airmass from Thursday through Sunday!

Look for sunny skies, low levels of humidity, and all around chamber of commerce type of weather through this period! Temperatures should be seasonable to start, which means highs in the lower 80’s, but warming to the upper 80’s by Sunday, and lows in the 50’s and 60’s, coolest across rural areas.  Great beach weather, indeed!

Enjoy, because thereafter, the heat of summer looks to make an encore appearance here in New England, as we head towards Labor Day!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about our hurricane season. Thankfully, not much of one so far, but it we’re only now heading into peak season, and it only takes one!

The last major hurricane to strike New England was on August 19th, back in 1991, when category 2 Bob tracked over the Cape, bringing with it 120 mph winds, and destructive damage.

Remember, with the abnormally warm water off our coast, we must be vigilant here in New England. I will also have a new beach, boating and vacation forecast, for everyone.

In the meantime, whatever the future may hold for us, try to make the most of what we have today. As with the weather, things can change quickly!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

M.O.T.S.! 8/13/18

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! Unless you were on the Cape, the weather was basically a washout! This was especially true from Boston points north and west. While Boston saw on and off showers throughout the entire weekend, some places just north of Boston received flash flooding on Sunday morning, with up to 8″ of rain! Meanwhile, not much rain fell on the Cape. I even heard reports of the sun coming out down there yesterday, salvaging a decent beach day! So far, I would classify the first third of August as being hot and wet!

In fact, it was the warmest start to any August in recorded history here in Boston, with the last 19 days featuring above average temperatures! Oh, there were more records! Boston just finished a streak of 9 consecutive days when the temperature failed to drop below 70 degrees, for both day and night. This was good for the third longest on record! Albany, N.Y just ended a streak of having 44 straight days with high temperatures of over 80 degrees! I don’t know the exact number, but we too here in Boston have received close to a record number of high temperatures in the 80’s starting way back in May.

We know it’s been hot, but what about all this crazy humidity?! It’s no surprise, as the steering currents have been flowing straight up from the tropics for what seems like an eternity. As mentioned in previous posts, you can thank the Bermuda high pressure for the swampy conditions around here. I won’t get into all the technical details again, but needless to say, it has been a very strange weather pattern this summer indeed!

I know everyone is dying to find out what the title ‘M.O.T.S’ stands for! This is actually pretty neat trivia, and would deserve a nice prize for anyone who gets it! The late Dick Albert used to use clever acronyms to describe the weather. This particular one is describing our weather status for the upcoming week, which is…”more of the same.” Meaning what you’ve been seeing, is what you’re going to get. Yuck! I used to love “B.I.C.O.”, or “baby it’s cold outside.” I will have all the details coming up in my forecast shortly.

Last week I took the summer forecast and threw it into the garbage can. Today, I’m digging through the garbage trying to retrieve it! Welcome to the world of long range weather forecasting! Not that I believe it was 100% perfect, but perhaps I was a bit too hasty last week saying it was my worst seasonal forecast ever. True, it has turned out a bit warmer than what I was anticipating. No sense in giving too much credit, or ripping into it at this early juncture. There’s still a good 5 weeks left to astronomical summer. As always, I will grade and review when the time comes later in September.

With all that being said, I am keep a close eye on the number of 90 degree days so far this summer. A surge last week brought us up to 14 days so far this year. If it were to end here, that would be exactly average for Boston in any given summer. My summer forecast called for between 10 and 14. Though not impossible, it would be shocking if we don’t see a few more 90 degree days before summer ends.

Just in September alone, Boston averages at least one 90 degree day. This has not been the case the past several Septembers, where Boston has seen some of its hottest weather of the summer, with many 90 degree days. I can’t remember September being so warm as it has been the past several years. I believe a lot has to do with the warm ocean temperatures surrounding New England. It also ties in well with the ‘seasonal shift’ we have been experiencing here in New England, for the better part of a decade now.

With a phenomenon called latent heating and cooling, it takes longer for the very warm ocean to cool off in the fall. Therefore, summer has been extending deeper into our fall. Conversely, once the ocean does finally cool off by February, it takes longer for it to warm up in spring, keeping New England in the ice box for what seems to Mother’s Day!

Honestly, there are so many wild things beginning to happen! I was chatting about this with my weather buddy Remy about it the other day. We were both very impressed at the current state of the global atmosphere. *WARNING* if you don’t like winter, you can skip this section and go right to the forecast! But what fun is that?  We live in New England, and many of us love the change of season!

While it’s still early, I did mention to you I would mention a quick preview of the upcoming fall and winter. It may be warm now, but early indications is calling for the potential of a cold & stormy winter, with above average snowfall…especially targeting the I95 corridor from Virginia to Boston. You may ask, how can you forecast forecast something 4 months away, when you barely can get the next day right? There may be some truth to that.  However, the fact of the matter is that long range computer models have been doing remarkably well in forecasting seasonal outlooks the past several years, just about starting at this time of the year.

Are they correct? Only time will tell for sure, but I have to say that I tend to agree with what I’m seeing at this early juncture. No doubt, we’ve had some big winters as of late, including the epic 2014-15 record breaking season. It’s hard to believe that anything could ever top that winter, but the climate has been one of extremes since about the mid 90’s. With increased water vapor available, storms have more available moisture to work with when they strike…I would say never say never! Watch for my preliminary fall outlook to kick things off at the start of September.

Now for your weekly camping, beach and boating forecast. Unfortunately, I’m expecting quite a few episodes of unsettled weather this week. While no one day is expecting to be a total washout, you may be dodging downpours at any given time during the week. Best beach and boating days appear to be Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, then again possibly by Sunday. Best chances for rain will be later today, tomorrow, and later Friday and Saturday. By the way, if you are vacationing on the Cape, you may end up with the best weather in New England, especially after tomorrow.

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. There’s a 50/50 chance we could get a bit more sunshine than anticipated…which would be a bonus. Expect cloudy and muggy weather this afternoon through tonight. Watch for areas of showers and scattered downpours across the region. Highs will be in the 70’s today, and upper 60’s overnight.

Tuesday will feature a lot of clouds, and a continuation of scattered showers and tropical downpours. Clouds may tend to break allowing for some sunshine to come out during the afternoon. This may only act to destabilize the air, and may lead to a pop up shower or evening thunderstorm. It will be warm and muggy, with highs in the mid 80’s. Any showers will diminish tomorrow night, leading to a warm and muggy night.

A weak dew point shift may lead to slightly less muggy on Wednesday. This will be one of the best days of the week, with a good amount of sunshine! As it looks right now, I see very low chances of rain on this day. It will be very warm, with highs in the mid 80’s.

A southerly flow will resume on Thursday and Friday. This will bring a renewed surge of humidity back into the region, along with areas of fog, and scattered showers and thunderstorms.

A cool front will be crossing the region on Friday. This will result in some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Right now, most of this activity will be across interior locations, although timing could be an issue along the coast. Some guidance is suggesting that this front may stall just off the coast. If this happens, I would have to keep it mainly cloudy along with the chance of more showers on Saturday. This is not a lock, and could also easily turn out to be sunny and nice. As the front pushes further offshore, Sunday should turn out nice, with mainly sunny skies, and comfortable temperatures. I hope that turns out this way!

Well, that’s about all I have for today! In next week’s post, I will be letting you know if I see any potential changes to this hot, muggy, wet pattern. I will also have a new vacation, beach and boating forecast. I may also touch on the early fall forecast. In the meantime, if you love this type of weather, see you in September!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Hot Enough For Ya? 8/6/18

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! It was a split decision weather wise, with a line of severe storms moving through on Saturday. Yesterday was a great beach day, with nearly a 100% sunshine, and very warm temperatures well up into the 80’s.

Getting back to Saturday for a moment. This was day two of a rather wild set of weather events that actually began on Friday. First on Friday, the air was heavy with humidity, it only needed a slight trigger mechanism to ignite storms.

Sure enough , a disturbance moving through the upper atmosphere provided just enough lift to rapidly ignite thunderstorms from the Boston area points north. The most severe weather occurred up in New Hampshire, where there were many reports of structural damage which may of been the result of small tornadoes.

Perhaps you saw the picture I posted on my Facebook page of the amazing shelf cloud my brother in law Michael took up at his home near Portsmouth, New Hampshire Friday evening. It was quite the photo that caught the attention of many professional meteorologists on Twitter!

The action shifted south on Saturday. A cool front was pushing through New England. Early morning sun only helped to destabilize the air, leading to a line of severe storms.

These storms actually spawned a tornado in southern Worcester County, with a EF1 tornado ripping through the town of Webster. This tornado had estimated winds of up to 100 mph, which resulted in some serious damage. The tornado dissipated as it tracked towards the northeast.

As the front sagged towards the Cape, a small storm developed, and actually enhanced the rainfall across the Cape. The end result was a deluge of rain with many towns picking up close to 4″ of rain in only a few hours time! This was a longtime coming, as much of southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape has been void of rainfall for the better part of the summer.

I know it’s a corny old cliche, but really…hot enough for ya? I guess that depends who you ask! For some, no, they would prefer this kind of weather everyday for the whole summer! For others, they will live with the heat, especially when they think back to the persistent cold of last winter & spring. While still others, could do without this heat. This is the beauty of living here in New England! During the course of any given season, Mother Nature finds a way to satisfy most everyone. Typically, not one pattern lasts too long. If you don’t like a particular pattern, it typically changes within a week or two!

Now, getting to the matter at hand. I’m afraid my summer forecast is in serious jeopardy of verifying. I will say this, if it was going to be wrong in any direction, I’m glad it’s leaning towards the warm side! The initial call for this summer way back in May was for a overall cooler summer than years past. I wasn’t calling for a cool summer per say, but I did not anticipate that it was going to get this hot, either! I initially called for around ten 90 degree days this summer here in Boston, then expanded it to 10 to 14 to account for a possible hot start to August. Average is 14. Well, here we are August 6th today, and we are on to our 13th day, tomorrow will be 14, Wednesday will be 15, and possibly even 2 more on Thursday and Friday. Wow.

Not to make any excuses, but I always said August was the wildcard month. I had a good idea on June and July forecast. I knew July was going to be a hot month, and that did not disappoint, with Boston registering its 8th hottest July on record. But the outlook became murky as I looked towards August. Some computer models were calling for a sudden change to cool. With the oncoming El Nino, I took the bait, and decided to cut the intense heat off at the end of July. Oh, the cool came, but it was most certainly directed towards the upper mid west and Tennessee Valley, rather than towards New England. Our weather is coming from a different direction, which I will explain shortly.

I was reading a post from WeatherBell Analytics expert long range meteorologist Joe Bastardi yesterday, and he brought up some excellent points in regards to the persistent heat. In what can only be described as a bizarre summer pattern, not only here in New England, but pretty much across the entire globe. Some day I will be able to show you pictures, but if you saw the temperature profile from across the world, you would see what I mean.

Some may be hearing all of the extreme hot temperatures being recorded across the world. While this is true in parts of Europe, California, Texas, and even here in New England, there are other parts of the world recording equally cold temperatures such as the upper mid west, South America, eastern Canada and Greenland. Unusual cold and rain has even visited the typically parched region of Greece, after being ravaged by wildfire. This is highly unusual for this part of the world, at this time of the year.

So what did Bastardi have to say about this? Well, nobody truly knows all of the answers, but the atmosphere appears to be in a volatile state right now, with many changes occurring globally. While New England may be in a hot pattern now, the upper air patterns and jet streams look like they’re preparing for winter rather than remaining in summer. Joe spoke about something I constantly preach about, and that is not to underestimate the power of latent heating and cooling in our oceans.

The oceans have been like bath water for so long, releasing a tremendous amount of water vapor and heat energy into the atmosphere. Now that the Atlantic is finally cooling off, it is having a profound effect on the short term climate in northern Europe. Cold water temperatures are promoting a trough of low pressure off of Greenland and Iceland (cold & unsettled). This in turn pumps a ridge of high pressure (hot & dry) over much of Europe.

Below this deep trough off of Greenland, a expansive ridge of high pressure, also known as the Bermuda high, has strengthened further than expected this summer. This Bermuda high, is responsible for bringing our hot weather into New England this summer. Typically, the high pulses during the summer, at times becoming strong to give us some hot weather, then weakens allowing cool air from Canada to flow into our region, with refreshing breaks. This year, it has been unusually strong, building westward from the Atlantic, and poking its nose into New England. This began on the first day of July, and has not let up since.

So how do I see the rest of the summer going? Until I see a breakdown in the Bermuda high pattern, I have to go with the trends…hot! In what could end up being my worst seasonal forecast in years, it will be interesting to see just how far Mother Nature is going to take this. After a brief cool down this weekend into next week, there are already signs of another surge of high heat and humidity the last 10 days of August. If this occurs, it would not shock me if Boston tops 20 days of 90 degree temperatures this summer! For what it’s worth, nobody had a summer forecast anticipating this kind of heat!

Now for your beach, boating and camping forecast. The best days for beach and boating appear to be today, tomorrow, early Wednesday, later Thursday, and then straight on through next weekend. It’s going to be a hot week, so hopefully your plans bring you close to the ocean, lake or river! Be prepared for the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, as a front tries to push into all this heat and humidity. Warm weather will return, with just a chance of an afternoon or evening storm this weekend.

Time for your weekly summer vacation, outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect full triple H conditions this afternoon, which is hazy, hot & humid. The NWS has issued excessive heat warnings, with high temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees, with heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees! Wow, take it easy out there,  drink plenty of fluids, and please don’t forget to check on your pets and elderly folks! If you are seeking relief, head to the Cape or local beaches, where a weak feeble sea breeze may keep it a few degrees cooler.

It could be the warmest night of the summer tonight. Temperatures may not fall too much lower than 75 degrees in Boston,and with high levels of humidity, it will make for an extremely stuffy night for sleeping. No rain is expected.

Tuesday will be a carbon copy of today, but perhaps a few degrees less hot, but just as much humidity, if not a bit more. Temperatures should top off between 94 and 97 degrees, with hazy skies. An approaching front may spark off some thunderstorms across northern New England. There’s only a 10% chance of rain in Boston tomorrow.

Another very warm and muggy night is expected tomorrow night, with low temperatures mainly in the 70’s.

Watch for a volatile day on Wednesday. A cool front will be punching into New England. As this happens, it will lift the hot air up into the atmosphere creating a very unstable environment. After some morning sun, watch for showers and thunderstorms to develop and move from west to east across the state during the day. Because of the existing heat and humidity, some of these storms may become severe, with straightline winds, vivid lightning, and a small chance of a tornado. We have already seen this several times this summer. Because of the rain, temperatures will be in the lower 90’s, but still with high humidity.

After some morning clouds, it should turn sunny but remain very warm, but not as hot as the next couple days on Thursday. If we get enough sun, temperatures could push 90 degrees again. Expect similar weather for Friday, with perhaps a bit less humidity.

Right now, the weekend looks summery, with warm temperatures, but not too hot, with highs up into the mid 80’s. A couple disturbances may move through over the weekend, which would bring the risk of a thunderstorm or two, especially during the late afternoon. A washout is not anticipated, but a clear weekend with no rain can not be gauranteed at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about our warm oceans, and how this is going to effect our future weather patterns. I may also have some very early preliminary thoughts about this upcoming fall and winter?? Also watch for my new beach, boating and vacation forecast. In the meantime, go to the beach, run under the sprinkler, eat popsicles…do whatever you need to do to beat this heat!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Steam Heat Returns! 7/30/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Welcome to the mid-point of summer here in the Northern Hemisphere! While meteorological summer is two thirds over, this is actually the mid point of astronomical summer, which ends on September 22nd this year.

Overall, the weekend was quite summery across most of the region. Most storms stayed away on Saturday, though there were some exceptions up north, but certainly nothing widespread.

Though not a bad day by any stretch of the imagination, I was a bit disappointed in the weather on Sunday. In my mind, I had envisioned a cooler, dryer air mass with lowering dew points, amidst cobalt blue skies.  No doubt, dew points lowered from the sultry levels felt most of last week, but the cobalt blue skies…not so much!

The day featured a lot of high and mid level cloudiness, giving the sun a milky appearance for the better part of the day. This was in response to the cold front that passed through the region on Saturday.

Rather than plowing through the region, the front actually barely oozed through, sluggishly pushing the unbearable high humidity just off the coast. This makes total sense given the pattern we are in.

This allowed moisture, in the form of clouds, to continuously stream up from south to north, especially across southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape and Islands.

Not to make any excuses, but computer models did a poor job picking up on those pesky clouds, yesterday. Just another example showing just how changeable our weather can be here in New England!

So how’s your summer going? Not too shabby weatherwise, I would say so far! I wouldn’t call it a perfect 10, but my goodness haven’t we seen our share of beautiful summer weather?

After a quite a bone chilling cold spring, summer bursted on the scene in May, with more than half the days up in the 80’s.

June featured many delightful days, with humidity levels in check, and close to average amounts of rain. While there were some cool days, there were just as many warm ones, making June as close to average as one could get. But the summer was just getting warmed up, as they say!

July came in like a lion, with a 7 day heat wave in many locations, making it one of the warmest starts to any July on record. While temperatures may have eased back a bit, the real nemesis of summer has taken over in full force…the humidity!!!

Up to this point, I’m pleased at how the summer forecast has worked out. If summer were to end now, I would be right on the money! But summer is not ending now, or anytime soon according to the latest computer guidance.

Boston has already reached 90 degrees 10 times so far this summer, with many inland communities nearly double this amount. To be up front, I was confident in seeing a hot July, but not necessarily to this degree. The  call was for between 10 and 14 this summer.

August was always the wildcard whether the heat would continue, or end abruptly. After studying all the data, it now appears as if  the Bermuda high is going to maintain its strength along the eastern seaboard straight on through August.

What is the Bermuda high you ask? This is a region of high pressure (warm & dry) near Bermuda, which typically strengthens during the summer months.

Because the circulation of high pressure flows clockwise, this acts as a heat pump during the summer, drawing hot weather along with high levels of humidity northward into New England, from the Deep South.

This Bermuda high has become the dominant player this summer. Therefore, it would not surprise me if we receive another 3 to 5 days of 90 degree days this summer here in Boston. This would bring us up to at least average, if not slightly above average before all is said and done. Summer lover’s rejoice!!

While I’m expecting the warm weather to continue, I’m also expecting the awful muggy weather to bring new meaning to the old saying “the dog days of summer.” My goodness it’s been awful!

With our muggiest weather typically in August, things could get a bit worse before it gets better in regards to the mugginess. Ugh! Overall, I’m expecting above average temperatures this August, as well as above average precipitation across much of the region. But as is the case in most summers, some get more rain than others.

So far, many locations has received just enough rain to keep things green this summer. As is typically the case, some have seen more than others. The latest drought monitor continues to focus on dryer than normal conditions across northern New England. After several dry years, southern New England has no current warnings or advisories for abnormally dry conditions.

This summer pattern has many tricks up its sleeve. I have mentioned it before, but I will mention it again. I am becoming increasingly concerned about a tropical storm or even a hurricane striking New England this season!

Many weather enthusiasts, many of who are interested in hurricanes, have voiced their disappointment with the lack of hurricane activity so far this season. I have a couple things to say about this.

First, I understand their passion. While hurricanes are not my expertise, I can relate with my love for nor’easters. Many people think this a warped way of thinking, at those who are disappointed that there are no hurricanes this year. While I do not wish any structural damage or loss of life to anyone, it’s these storms that drive the passion for the love of weather. I have always said, it only takes one of these storms to result in billions of dollars worth of destruction. After last years catastrophic season, I’m hoping we see no hurricanes this year. But this is nature after all, and it’s a natural process of the earth to distribute heat energy into the atmosphere.

Second, it’s still only July. The peak of hurricane season is still 6 weeks away, typically occurring around September 10th. While it’s true the ocean temperatures are much colder than they were at this time last year, there’s still time for things to change.

With all that being said, I was on board forecasting a below average hurricane season this year. This does not mean we are in the clear! As mentioned above, New England has to be on alert this year for a hurricane. Why? While the ocean temperatures are below average across the Caribbean Ocean, they are above normal off our coast.

Next, remember that Bermuda high I spoke about above? Yes, while this is bringing us the summer weather we love right now, it may also act to direct a hurricane off the east coast straight up into New England, later in the summer.

All this humidity and tropical downpours we’ve been receiving of late may be priming the atmosphere for such an event to occur. I will be closely monitoring this potential, and keep everyone updated should the threat arise.

Now for your beach, camping and boating forecast. Despite the chance of some scattered afternoon thunderstorms, this is going to end up being another great vacation week. Look for best beach days to be today, tomorrow, but truthfully everyday is looking good for the beach, at some point or another. Folks on the Cape may have to battle typical morning fog, as the humidity ramps up. There’s also a risk for some thunderstorms, but this activity looks like it wants to remain mainly across the interior. Best chance for the coast to see a thunderstorm appears to be Wednesday, Thursday, then again on Saturday. If your plans take you camping across the interior of New England, be prepared to encounter thunderstorms each afternoon this week, especially from Wednesday on. Boating looks good, except during afternoon storms. Just keep an eye to the sky!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Today will be another very nice day. Expect mainly sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, and very warm temperatures. Highs will reach into the mid 80’s. As a warm front approached us, we may be battling some high clouds from time to time during the day.

Look for warm and dry weather for your Monday night. A great night for a ball game, or an evening cook out. As has been the case lately, temperatures in Boston won’t drop much further from 70 degrees.

A warm front will be approaching and moving through our area on Tuesday. This will mean a couple things. First, there will be a few more clouds around. This can be tricky, as warm fronts can either move through sluggishly with a lot of clouds, or without much fanfare with a surprising amount of sun. I’m going with a mix of sun and clouds, with most clouds during the morning. There’s also a chance of a few showers across the Cape and Islands early on, but it should not be a washout. Second, you will notice an uptick in the humidity. While it won’t be oppressive, you will begin to feel the air becoming increasingly heavy.

Expect generally fair and warm weather tomorrow night, with low temperatures remaining in the lower 70’s in Boston, and 60’s in rural areas.

For the period Wednesday through Saturday, expect the steam heat to return, with temperatures very close to 90, and oppressive dew points returning! There will be a very muggy feel to the air. Yuck! Watch for areas of morning fog across coastal areas, especially down on the Cape. Also watch for the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, mainly across the interior, but even Boston could see a storm or two each afternoon. No washouts are anticipated east of Worcester. Patterns like this typically bring very little rain to the Cape.

After the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm on Saturday, we may get another brief break in the humidity come Sunday. If the front makes it through, expect clearing skies, and warm temperatures, with lower levels of humidity, and highs in the mid 80’s. Another fine beach day!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new vacation forecast, as well as my outdoor summer activity outlook. I will also try to let you know just how long this awful humidity will be sticking around for. In the meantime, if you love steamy weather, this is the summer that keeps on giving!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

T

Well Hello, Florida! 7/23/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a 50/50 weekend weather wise around here. Saturday continued the splendid weather we enjoyed from last week, with deep blue skies, low dew points, and comfortable breezes. The weather pattern changed on Sunday, with many communities seeing tropical downpours, higher levels of humidity, and a damp wind blowing in from the ocean.

This was not the case everywhere! Many locations down the Cape actually had a half decent day, with most people seeing very little rainfall, along with some periods of hazy sun. Certainly not the best beach day, but no washout by any means. All in all, it was a very changeable weekend, with the best weather on Saturday.

Last week, I spoke of a pattern change heading towards the eastern part of the U.S. including us here in New England. In rather dramatic fashion, the pattern has indeed changed, seemingly overnight Saturday this past weekend. After a torrid first week of July, with nearly every day reaching 90 + degrees along with oppressive levels of humidity, the weather the past couple weeks could not of been more perfect! If you had vacation on either of the past two weeks, you were treated to summer weather at its best here in New England!

So what does this new pattern mean for us here in New England? Does it mean summer is over, and time to break out the fall jackets? The short answer to this question is no! This answer should bring a feeling of relief for all my summer worshipers out there, (I know exactly who you are)!

This may be true for us here in New England, but it will be a different story for folks who live in the mid west. No doubt, it’s a very strange pattern being that we’re smack dab in the middle of the summer. If I had maps, I could show you what’s happening. Hopefully someday soon I will have that capability, but in the meantime, I will have explain it verbally.

So far, I’m fairly pleased at how the summer forecast is working out. Boston stands at 9 days reaching 90 degrees. The final call for the summer was low end 10, and high end 14 depending on if the heat persisted into August. I also mentioned that July would feature the hottest weather of the entire summer. The one wildcard remains the month of August. Long range outlooks from NOAA keeps the above normal temperature regime here in New England for the entire month. Should this forecast verify, we could be looking at 3 to 5 more days of 90 degree days here in Boston this summer. If we reach the high end of that scale, that would give us close to 14 days , which is exactly average for Boston!

While I mentioned that this would not be an exceptionally hot summer this year, I did mention that it would please many, with long stretches of warm weather. So far, I think many would agree this has been the case! In nearly all summers, even the great ones, there’s bound to be a week or two that’s not a perfect “10”, we don’t live in Florida after all…or do we?

After studying New England weather my whole life, I can tell you that we live in a unique spot on earth. At any given time, we can experience different climates from across the entire world, right here in our own back yards! Because we are located at the exact half way point between the Equator and the North Pole, with Canada to our north, and the warm Gulf Stream to our south, our weather can be like watching a ping pong match, changing whenever the wind changes direction!

Over the past couple weeks, we’ve enjoyed a delightful flow coming out of Canada. This has not only kept the intense heat to our south, but also brought us low dew points, which meant comfortable nights for sleeping! Over the weekend, the upper air pattern suddenly shifted resulting in a very unusual pattern invading the U.S. that had many experts wondering if this was July or November?

While a huge ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) developed over Texas, extending westward towards the Pacific northwest, an unusual deep trough of low pressure (cool & unsettled) formed across central Canada, and tracked southeast towards the mid Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a huge ridge of high pressure out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, also known as the Bermuda High, strengthened, and retrograded west towards New England. Because winds flow clockwise around the high pressure, our  airflow is coming directly out of the tropics and Florida, straight into New England! So while the mid west and even parts of the mid Atlantic experience a touch of fall over the next 10 to 14 days, it will be anything but that for us here in New England! The boundary where the warm tropical air, collides with the cool air is where all the flooding rains are occurring across the mid Atlantic and portions of Pennsylvania.

In fact, as the two streams collided, a winter type nor’easter storm developed this weekend. Some thought because of the time of year, that this may have tropical origins to it. This storm explosively developed, bringing 5 to 7″ of torrential rain to the Washington D.C. region. This storm then moved northwest, through Pennsylvania and into New York state. Meanwhile, a southerly flow developed across New England, bringing oppressively muggy air from Florida, straight up into New England. Everyone following this?!

So where do we go from here? Some in the weather community believe that this pattern change is a sign of things to come. It’s still too early for me to speculate on this theory. However, should something like this were to repeat itself during colder months, a unusual winter similar to 2009-10 could be on the table. This winter delivered record snowfall to the mid Atlantic region, while bringing New England a warm and wet winter, with below normal snow. A very unusual pattern indeed!

In the short term, basically what you see is what you get. We are stuck in this tropical pattern for the next 7 to 10 days. This means very warm temperatures, along with oppressive levels of humidity for the foreseeable future…maybe through the first week of August. Because our climate is going to be similar to that of Florida, we can also expect periods of tropical downpours at times. This does not mean it’s going to be raining all the time. I will let you know when I believe we will experience the rainiest weather this week in my forecast shortly.

For those cooler weather fans out there, I have some good news for you, too! If you love summer, and endless warm temperatures, skip this section and go right to the forecast! Seven years ago yesterday, Boston’s high temperature was  103 degrees. This was only one degree short of the cities hottest temperature ever recorded, which was 104 degrees set back on July 4th, 1911. You may say, Pete, this doesn’t look cool to me!

The good news, is that today marks the climactic warmest period of the year. After today, the daily averages begin to slowly descend. It’s a bell curve, and we are currently at the peak of the curve. From here on out, it’s all downhill! Yes, it’s a slow descent, and we really won’t notice a difference until sometime in September, It was just last year, that Mother Nature defied the climatological average, as temperatures continued to warm, against the averages, the deeper we went into late summer and early fall. Remember last October? One of the warmest ever recorded here in New England!

Now for your beach, camping and boating forecast. While I’m expecting periods of tropical showers this week, it will not be a complete washout. Expect the wettest weather to be later Wednesday into Thursday, and possibly Friday afternoon. The best weather will be tomorrow, part of Wednesday, most of Friday, and most of the upcoming weekend. While no major organized storm is expected, heavy rain and thunderstorms will make later Wednesday and most of Thursday be dangerous to be on or near the water. Also watch for thunderstorms later Friday. If you can wait, the weather looks much better for the upcoming weekend!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily on the nice weather anticipated for next weekend. Expect warm and muggy weather for the rest of today, along with the chance of a few tropical like showers. In between these showers, there may be some sunny breaks. It will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. Expect similar weather tonight, with warm and muggy conditions, with the chance of a few downpours Watch for areas of fog along the south coast and Cape and Islands.

Tuesday will feature a murky start to the day, with areas of low clouds and fog. However, expect the sun to break out during the late morning and continuing for the rest of the day. It will feel like the tropics out there, with highs in the lower 80’s, along with very muggy conditions. Because the air is so loaded with moisture, I can not rule out a brief tropical like shower tomorrow, but most will remain dry.

It should remain dry tomorrow night, but expect areas of fog and low clouds to move into coastal locations and the Cape and Islands. It will be warm and stuffy, with lows only dropping to the low 70’s in Boston.

Temperatures may be a bit warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80’s. It will continue to be very muggy, which will certainly make it feel much warmer than what the temperature says. Later in the day, that boundary will begin pushing east. As this happens, we will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms later in the day and at night.

This boundary will only slowly push through the region on Thursday. Therefore, expect periods of heavy tropical downpours to continue, especially the first half of the day. It will continue to be warm and humid, with highs in the lower 80s. With the heavy rain expected, watch for areas of street flooding.

The boundary may move just enough off the coast on Friday to allow some clearing skies to develop. It will continue to be very warm and humid, with high temperatures near 90. High pressure may begin to briefly build down from eastern Canada this weekend. This may result in a few thunderstorms later Friday as the drier air moves into the region.

As this high pressure works into New England this weekend, it may deliver a brief surge of lower dew points, and drier air! If it all works out, we may be treated to one heck of a beautiful mid summer weekend, with very warm temperatures and no rain! Enjoy it, because the muggy weather is going to return next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking ahead as to what to expect for the month of August, and recap July. I will also have your new beach, camping and boating forecast.  In the meantime, enjoy the Florida climate while it’s here, who knows what New England has in store for us next!

Thanks for reading!

Pete