Through The Fog…I Still See Summer! 10/9/17

Hello! Happy Columbus Day, to all! It was yet another split decision weatherwise this past weekend. Saturday was a gorgeous early fall day, with abundant sunshine and warm temperatures. Sunday began with a brief period of showers. These showers moved away, but the rest of the day remained murky, with areas of fog and drizzle.

The one common theme from this past weekend and into today…it’s so darn muggy!! As the remnants of Hurricane Nate tracks north of Boston, it’s pulling up all sorts of tropical moisture from the deep south.

Many friends and family have been asking me, is this unusual weather? The short answer to this question is, yes!! It feels more like Memorial Day than Columbus Day. In fact, it may be a record for being so muggy, so late into the season around here. There’s no sense in sugarcoating it any longer. The autumn’s are warmer than they used to be…a lot warmer!

Just looking back over the last 10 years or so, I can count 7 out of the last 10 autumn’s were warmer than normal. In fact, Boston meteorologist Eric Fisher tweeted a startling graph, showing how Boston autumn’s have been steadily becoming warmer over the last 60 years or so. Yes, there have been some exceptions, but when you smooth the graph, you do notice the median line increasing over the years.

Even within my lifetime, I distinctly remember most years featuring brisk, chilly, autumn like weather on Columbus Day. I can’t remember the last time we had fall like weather on this holiday.

In recent years, many folks have actually been going to the beach! In fact, if you happen to have tomorrow off, I would recommend taking a trip to the beach, it’s going to be that nice!

Yet, despite the warm weather, you can’t stop the seasons from changing. We are losing daylight quickly now, and the nights are getting longer. With less radiation from the sun, cold air is beginning to pool in Canada. Eventually, a strong autumn storm will track close to us, and yank this cold air down into New England.

In a modified way, this is going to happen this week. As Nate passes through our area, the storm system is going to pull down cooler and drier air from the north this week.

However, because the source region is not that cold, it’s only going to bring us back to seasonal levels. It’s main focus is going to eraticate the oppressive humidity levels felt across southern New England.

As mentioned above, Columbus Day used to be the big weekend for peak fall foliage viewing across much of interior New England. Even in Boston, I remember certain trees starting to change color about this time of year. Over the years, the trend has been to push this date back a couple weeks.

While taking a short drive around my area yesterday, I was encouraged to see some splashes of bright foliage showing up on many of the trees. Now it’s true, certain species of maple trees around Boston have already turned brown, and lost their leaves.

This is due to a pesky fungus that attacked the leaves this summer. Lucky for us, there are many different species of trees around Boston!

Therefore, I’m happy to report that I’m still expecting some beautiful colors to arrive real soon! When is it ever not beautiful?

Despite the late start, I have read and seen many reports of some brilliant color showing up north, and even across western Massachusetts. It seemed as if the leaves changed overnight, said one report!

If you want to see peak colors, you probably have to drive about two hours north and west of Boston. However, it’s entirely possible that the color wave quickly collapses south, even as close by as Rt 128 belt by the middle of this week!

Here in Boston, and inside of I95, the process takes longer. Because of the modifying effects of the Atlantic Ocean, fall tends to last longer along the New England coast.

In fact, the beauty of autumn colors can sometimes last until mid November! This is when the perfect mix of chilly nightime temperatures, and mild sunny days, bring out the best of colors around here.

This means our autumn’s tend to last longer along the coast, extending the beautiful colors by a couple weeks longer than across the interior.

Due to the excessive warm weather this October, I am not expecting peak color to arrive in our area until the start of November this year.

Many continue to ask me just what this warm October means for our upcoming winter? This is the million dollar question! I don’t weigh too much of what happens in October for the upcoming winter. In recent years, October has just seemed to become an extension of summer.

My attention primarily focuses in on the patterns in November. My motto is, what happens in November, the winter will remember! While October may offer some clues, it’s in November when I gather most of my signals. Therefore, my official winter forecast is not published until November 20th, this year.

If looking at only October patterns, one would think that an excessively warm winter is on the way. And it’s true, if this pattern were to persist into November and December, you can forget about any meaningful winter this year for Boston.

The whole winter hinges on temperature and precipitation patterns in November. The more above average the temperature is at Logan Airport during November, the less snow the city receives.

Conversely, the closer it is to average or a bit below, the higher the amount of snow falls. I use this, and about 16 other signals to formulate my winter forecast.

Right now, the western trough (cold & stormy) and eastern ridge (warm & dry) pattern is persistant and stable, and is unlikely to change much for the next 7 to 10 days.

However, there are some signs, that as we move towards Halloween and the start of November, chillier temperatures may begin to penetrate the northeast, resulting in a reverse of this current pattern.

If this pattern persists, and does not “flip” to colder weather in November, as I mentioned earlier, a non winter may be in the works. But this is currently NOT the forecast. Just merely speculation.

It’s a very stubborn pattern to break down, especially with a La Nina (colder than normal water) developing in the south Pacific Ocean this winter. Typically, La Nina brings warm and dry winters to Boston, with below average snowfall.

A stubborn ridge (warm & dry) of high pressure tends to persist in the southeast part of the U.S., resulting in a warm & dry winter there. This ridge can sometimes extend all the way up the coast to Boston.

Meanwhile, a trough (cold & stormy) of low pressure, persists across the northwest part of the U.S., resulting in a very snowy and cold winter for that part of the country. This is currently the pattern across the U.S., very La Nina like.

The tricky part is, La Nina can be quite variable. No two La Nina’s are alike! Other global factors can alter the typical pattern, resulting in a surpressed jet stream, bringing snowy and cold weather for Boston. I am closely monitoring these other factors for the upcoming winter forecast.

With all that being said, I have calculated that out of 10 La Nina’s, six of them feature below average snow, two will be close to average, and two will deliver well above average snow. So if don’t like much snow, the odds are in your favor!

Now for weather history. In stark contrast to today, back on October 9th, 1979, an unusual early snowstorm struck the region! While it’s not that unusual for snow to fall in the hills and mountains of New England in October, it is unusual for snow to accumulate along the coast, especially so early in October!

In this storm, not much fell right along the shore, but you didn’t have to travel too far inland to see heavy wet snow begin to pile up!

The storm caused considerable damage to trees and power lines across the region. As is typically the case when it snows in October, not much fell the following winter! The weather community calls this the October snow curse!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10! Expect warm and muggy weather for the rest of today in Boston. More like late mid summer, than early fall. As the remnants of Nate pass by, watch for areas of rain and downpours to travers the region this afternoon, beginning around 2 to 3 PM, and continuing on and off until about 10 PM.

It’s questionable whether the Red Sox get this game in without a rain delay or even a cancellation. If they’re lucky, the heaviest of rain will miss Fenway…go Red Sox!

Any leftover rain will sweep out of the region tonight. Skies will clear and the humidity levels will begin to drop. Still, low temperatures will only fall into the 50’s and low 60’s.

Expect a beautiful day for your Tuesday. Watch for at least partly sunny skies, with lowering levels of humidity. With temperaures near 80, I would consider a trip to the beach if I had the day off!

For the period Wednesday through Friday, expect more typical weather for this time of the year, with high temperatures mainly in the 60’s, and lows in the 40’s and 50’s. It should be mainly dry, however, there is a slight chance of a period of showers Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Next weekend is slightly iffy at this point. I’m not expecting any washouts. However, a front may be in close proximity to our region. If this front is north of us on Saturday, we may break into another blast of warm temperatures! We could be talking 80…again!

Sunday may be slightly cooler, with more clouds increasing, along with the chance of some developing showers, especially later in the day. Thereafter, warmer than normal weather looks to resume at least through October 24th.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be letting you know when we may see our first frost. At this rate, it won’t be for a while yet. I will also have another fall foliage report, and another update on the winter forecast. In the meantime, summer is not ready to set sail, just yet!

Thanks for reading!

~Happy Birthday to my sister, Val!~ (October 10th)

Touch of Indian Summer…2/10/17

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! It was yet another split decision in the weather department. Saturday was a volatile day, with flooding rains occurring just north of Boston on Saturday morning. Some of these heavy showers traversed through Boston during the day, along with some thunder.

It was very chilly too, with high temperatures only in the 50’s. Saturday night brought the regions first widespread chill to the air, with many locations receiving their first frost, mostly across the north country!

This set the stage for a spectacular Sunday, on the first day of October. When people talk about classic New England fall days, this is exactly what they mean!

Whether you took a drive to view the early stages of fall foliage, went apple picking at a local orchard, or just watched the Patriots game with family; it was a stellar fall day, with deep blue skies, and 100% of the possible sunshine!

After winter, autumn is my next favorite seaon! There’s nothing like the sunny mild days, and clear crisp fall nights here in New England! Add the fall foliage extravaganza to the season, and you have a region that people travel to from all over the world!

What about our climate? While some may complain, we actually have it pretty good around here! Located exactly halfway between the North Pole and the Equator, New England can feature a climate from every part of the world, at any given time of the year. This means we have great variability here. Typically, no one particular pattern lasts too long.

While winters tend to be the longest season, not every winter brings tons of snow and bitterly cold temperatures. Due to our geographic location, the weather is influenced by many source regions. With Canada just to our north, the Atlantic Ocean to our east, and the tropical Gulf Stream just to our south, it’s no wonder why our weather changes so frequently!

A good friend of mine, and a loyal blog supporter, once told me that his father said, “It all depends which way the wind is blowing.” Could it be this simple? Can we really tell what the weather is going to be like by just knowing this?

The short answer to this question is, yes! Not to get too technical, but the direction of the wind blowing will tell you what kind of weather you’re going to see. This is is true for us here in New England, and especially for people who live in Boston.

Not that Boston is the center of the universe, but it’s location makes it especially fickle with wind direction. Boston’s latitude makes it far enough north, to be experience major winter storms and blizzards in the winter.

However, its proximity to the ocean, makes it susceptible for warm air to penetrate into the city, changing heavy snow to heavy rain. It all depends which way the wind is blowing. An east or southeast wind most always turns snow to rain. While a north or northeast wind locks the cold air along the coast, keeping precipitation mostly frozen.

Now that October has arrived, it’s time to start focusing on two things. The winter forecast, and fall foliage! Several friends and family members are anxious for my thoughts about the upcoming winter.

No doubt, the record blast of winter a few years ago have people wondering whether such a unprecedented event could happen again.

As I have said before, anything is possible. However, these type of historical winters are the exception and not the rule. Looking back in my data base (my brain), I can recall about one to two blockbuster winters here in Boston, for every decade. What do I mean when I say blockbuster winters?

Well, this is subject to interpretation. For some, a blockbuster winter is when you receive over 100″ of snow. Others may see it as a getting hit with a major blizzard or two (like 1978).

While ferociuos, Boston did not receive 100″ of snow in the 1978 season. I believe it was 85″ which is still a big season. But it was of course the two major blizzards we received that year, that made it memorable.

Then there are years like 2014-15, when Mother Nature decided to break Boston’s all time snowfall record in three weeks time! This, my friends, was calculated to be Boston’s worst winter in 300 years!

Even for myself, I have different ideas on what constitutes a blockbuster winter. Looking back, I would say 2014-15 was the worst I have ever seen. Then, going back in time in no chronological order of severity, there was 2010-11, 2004-05, 2002-03, 1995-96, 1993-94, 1992-93, 1977-78, 1968-69.

Notice how there were no years during the 1980’s? Yes, if you love big winters, this was not a decade of your liking! While there were some notable storms, there was no winter that received more than 65″ of snow during this decade, in any given winter.

In fact, there were more years during the winters of 1978-79 through 1991-92, that averaged below average in Boston. If you’re keeping count, there 9 out of 14 years that averaged below normal snow, in some cases, well below average!

As for the other 5 years, there were two years that were right about average, and only 3 years that featured only a bit above, but not by much.

But that all changed in the 1992-93 season. Since then, you may be surprised to know, that Boston has received more snow on average, than any in other time in recorded history! This means our average snowfall recorded at Logan Airport, has actually increased from 42″ to 44″ per year!

This begs the question, are the winters getting snowier in Boston? Well, if you look at data from the last 20 years, I would have to say, yes!

Personally, I have not seen winters like this when I was growing up as a kid in 70’s and 80’s. Yes, I remember the Great Blizzard of 1978…it was mammoth. While we have had storms come close, the ’78 storm still holds as the most intense winter storm I have ever seen in Boston.

While 2014-15 was the worst single winter I have ever witnessed, there were 4 massive snowstorms in succession to that year to achieve this status.

I’m also very aware that this could be the glory days of snowstorms here in Boston. It very well could be my long standing belief that this is a climate cycle, and could easily settle back to less snowfall in the coming years.

So what about this winter? Well, it’s still too early to be sure! At this early juncture, I can see this winter going two ways. Either this unusaully warm weather is going to continue through the rest of fall, and into December, leading to a warmer and drier winter this year.

Or, the pattern is going to snap to colder than normal, sometime in late October or November. Should this occur, then we should then begin to prepare for a stormy winter, with heavy amounts of snowfall.

Right now, most computer models are not too enthusiastic about any sustained cold air around here through December. But that could change! Some models do indeed show some chillier weather penetrating New England heading into November.

Much, much more to follow on this as we move deeper into the fall. My official winter forecast will be published on November 20th this year.

Wow…did September turn warm! After a chilly start, the month ended up nearly 3 degrees above average! This reversed the trend of cooler than normal months during the summer. While turning warmer, it also turned out drier than normal, with below average amounts of rain in most areas.

How does October look? Average high temperatures start out in the upper 60’s, only to cool by 10 degrees by Halloween. While the first two weeks of the month looks warmer than normal, I believe the last two weeks will be closer to average, with both warm and cool days.

However, the net result may be another month a bit warmer than normal, but not as much as September. There will be some chilly periods, which should bring a frost to much of New England, except right along the coast.

While October is typically our quietest month of the year, I believe it will turn a bit more active towards the second part of the month, with more chances of heavy rainfall.

Therefore, I believe we will end up with close to normal rain, which is just under 4″ in Boston. We typically do not see snow in Boston during October. However, there have been notable exceptions!

Now that october has arrived, it’s also time to talk foliage! Colors were showing up across the region as early as late August. The recent warm September has slowed this process down. Near average temperatures across northern New England this month will commence the color wave, as it heads south.

With that being said, you may need to drive a bit further north than usual this weekend to see peak fall foliage. Typically, you would only need to go to the White Mountains. But this year, you may need to travel to northern parts of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine to run into peak colors this weekend.

All it takes is a couple chilly nights and sunny days to quickly change the leaves! Early reports from up north is a season which is not as vivid as last year. If you recall, last year was a complete surprise to many experts! As leaves exploded with brilliant reds and oranges across the region. There’s still time for a last second recovery, so not all hope is lost! No matter what, there’s always pockets of brilliant colors!

Down here in the Boston area, a fungus has attacked many Maple trees, making the leaves dry up and fall prematurely. With all that being said, it only takes a few night of ideal weather conditions, to bring out some brilliant colors in other trees. Expect peak colors to arrive in Boston about a month from now.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity autumn forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out 10. Expect deep blue skies and mild temperatures for both today and tomorrow. While high temperatures will be in the 60’s along the coast, it may touch 70 not too far inland. Watch for chilly weather tonight, with lows near 50 along the coast, and upper 30’s and 40’s in suburban areas.

Watch for a taste of Indian Summer like weather for both Wednesday and Thursday. Because many locations in southern New England have not had a freeze, it’s not officially going to be Indian Summer.

However, any warm weather in October can be classified as Indian Summer-like. Up north, many locations have received their first freeze, some as early as late August!

With southwest winds, temperatures will soar into the upper 70’s and lower 80’s both days! Enjoy!

For the period Friday through Sunday, the weather becomes a bit iffy during this timeframe. While I am not expecting a complete washout, there will be a couple fronts traversing the region, with times of clouds and the chance of a couple periods of rain.

One such chance will be during the day on Friday, then another Saturday night and early Sunday. All the while, temperatures will cool back to near seasonal levels, which is the mid to upper 60’s over the weekend.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will check to see if anymore tropical activity will be developing. I’ll also let you know if anymore warm weather is in our future, as well as more clues about our upcoming winter. I will also have a new fall foliage report. In the meantime, enjoy the taste of Indian Summer, the wise owl in the picture can see winter coming soon!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Birthday to my niece, Olivia!!~

Cool Shot…In A Sea OF Warmth! 9/25/17

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After a rather gloomy week, the weekend turned out brilliant! Saturday started out with low clouds and fog, only to burn off to warm & sunny weather during the afternoon.

Sunday was a flashback to summer! While sea breezes kept it cooler right at the beaches, interior New England heated up into the high 80’s and low 90’s! What a day!

Wow…what a pest Jose was! While interior New England was asking what all the fuss was about, folks on Cape Cod and especially Nantucket were dealing with somewhat of a 4 day nor’easter!

I learned that some folks were actually stranded from either leaving the island, or trying to get back on, due to the ferry service being suspended for most of the week!

As was forecasted, the closer you lived to the center of the storm, the worse the weather would be. Here in Boston, it was mainly just a cloudy, gloomy week, with some some passing showers and gusty winds.

After an off forecast the week before, I felt the forecast last week was much improved across the region! I don’t believe we received as much rain as I forecasted here in Boston, but the general forecast was good, especially for the Cape.

As is the case, tropical storms in the fall can generate their own micro climates. Had the storm not meandered off our coast for a week, we would of enjoyed endless days of sunshine & warm temperatures.

Now that Jose is gone, this summer like pattern has quickly overwhelmed the rest of New England! What happened was Jose was interacting with a high pressure area across the Canadian Maritimes, essentially blocking Jose from tracking away from New England.

Winds circulate clockwise around high pressure, and counter clockwise around low pressure. With the high pressure anchored north of New England, and low pressure stalled south of us, a cool, foggy, moist northeast fetch develpoed off the Atlantic flowing straight into coastal New England.

I know what you’re thinking. If you are half a weather fanatic as I am, you were thinking just what would of happened if this same type of a storm system happened during winter?

Well, it’s difficult to say whether it would be the same set up in winter months, and just how cold it would be, ect…but a set up like this would of been nearly perfect in burying the coastal plain in a massive blizzard!

Actually, it very much was a winter type scenerio, here in late summer! I mention quite a bit about the Greenland Block, and how that often gives eastern Massachusetts cold & stormy weather during the winter months.

As has been the case over the last several summers, the Greenland Block has been appearing during the summer months, only to disappear during the height of winter.

This is still a bit of a mystery as to why this occurs, even to expert meteorologists! What I do know, is that if you love winter storms and heavy snow, this can be a very frustrating pattern!

With that being said, I do want to clear up a couple misconceptions. As we have seen over the past several years, we don’t always need the Greenland Block to receive heavy snows in Boston! During the infamous snow blitz of February 2015, there was no Greenland Block, and the city was buried with records amount of snow!

There are several other global factors that can develop in a winter season, that can deliver severe winter weather to the Boston area. During the record 2014-15 winter, a massive block developed across western Canada, and Alaska.

This cut off any mild Pacific air from traversing the country and warming us up. As the winter matured, bitterly cold air pooled over Greenland and eastern Canada, and began slowly sinking south into New England.

The catalyst for that winter was the weak El Nino that developed. This activated a very moist sub tropical jet stream that traveled across the southern U.S. then up the east coast, right over southeastern Massachusetts and the Boston area.

When the bitterly cold arctic air interacted with the moist tropical air during late January, it was like an atmospheric explosion! A succession of four massive blizzards paralyzed our region with up to 100″ of snow in just three weeks time!

I remember going to a weather conference and the local meteorologists spoke about just how extreme this winter pattern was. They discussed how unusual it was, for the arctic jet stream and the moist sub tropical jet stream to phase together for a extended period of time. Yes, it happens every now and again to give us intense winter storms.

But to have these streams merge, and be persistant over a period of time, was somewhat of a freak of nature. Another unusual aspect, was small area, where the two streams merged together.

It was a conduit fine line of intense snowfalls, confined to generally a 100 mile wide band, which basically stretched through eastern Massachusetts…especailly inside of the I95 corridor!

These are the winters which make New England a legendary place to live if you love snow! Fortunately for many, these winters come few and far between.

I was chatting with a friend over the weekend about that winter, and he mentioned that winter could of been once in a lifetime event. For the most part, I agreed with him.

However, there are many ways Mother Nature surprises us, and I’m sure there will be more records that will be broken in the future!

So what’s the latest with our fall and early winter patterns? Many friends and family members have been asking me when is fall weather coming??

Well, for folks who love warm weather, I’m happy to report to you, the seasonal shift we’ve been experiencing over the past several years, appears to be happening again!

Warm weather patterns look like they want to continue deep into the autumn, if not early winter. However, this also means winter could linger into spring, next year? This is partially due to well above normal ocean temperatures across the globe.

Earlier in September, weather patterns appeared as if they wanted to rush winter into New England earlier this year. However, there have been many significant developments since then, resulting in a different outlook for our region moving forward.

What once looked like a weak El Nino (warmer than normal water off coast of South America in the Pacific), is now lookin like a weak to perhaps even moderate La Nina (colder than normal water off the coast of South America in the Pacific).

With this sudden change, it now appears as if a similar winter to last year, may be on the way for us this year for here in New England.

This includes a warmer than normal autumn for much of New England, and rapid, extreme changes during the winter months. However, I must caution you about this early forecast. I mentioned several times that La Nina winters in Boston can be quite variable…ranging from warm & dry, to getting hit pretty hard with heavy snow.

Latest computer models are also hinting at some extreme weather in some parts of the country this winter. This includes us here in New England!

It’s quite unusual for computer models to be showing areas of above average precipitation, this far out. At this early juncture, I can foresee well above normal amounts of snowfall for much of northern New England this winter. I’m thinking even more than last year, and that was a pretty big year!

Here in Boston, we’re straddling on the lines of dry to the south, wet to the north. Same goes with temperatures, cold to the north, and warm to the south. In other words, it’s a coin toss at this point. But fear not! I will have this all ironed out by the time my official winter forecast is published on November 20th!

In the meantime, keep enjoying the bonus warm summer like temperatures! A friend asked me if this is Indian Summer? Very good question! Many folks have their own ideas of what Indian Summer is.

The official definition of Indian Summer is a warm, sunny period of weather, with light winds, after the first freeze. If you want to get technical, most of the leaves should also have fallen.

Some areas of northern New England have already received their first freeze, but for the majority of us, it’s not official!

Getting back to our endless summer…yes, the warmth is most likely going to continue through much of October the way I see it. It won’t feel like summer all the time, as there will be quick shots of cool, autumn like air swinging through every now and again.

One such cool shot will be arriving later this week. This will be short lived, as it already looks like it’s going to get warm all over again by this time next week!

As we head into November, the pattern may try to become more seasonable. Long range computer models are starting the month off warm, but may start getting colder as we head towards the second half of the month? We shall see!

What implications does all this warm weather have on our foliage season? From reports that I have seen, foliage is in full swing up north! This makes sense with all the chilly weather we experienced at the end of August and start of September.

With some marginal chilly nights ahead, expect foliage to be vibrant up north, and to continue to change colors just about on time. This means peak colors will be arriving in far northern Maine, New Hampshire and part of Vermont this weekend!! The color wave will then proceed to travel from north to south as we move deeper into autumn.

As for the Boston area, all this warm weather will hinder the leaves from changing color. I’m expecting another long, drawn out autumn around here, with peak colors not arriving until the first two weeks of November.

Right now, I’m expecting similar color to last year, which was quite nice! However, a fungus on some leaves, has dried out some leaves, making them turn brown and prematurely dropping. I will keep you updated with our fall color as we head into October!

As I say every year, autumn is beautiful in New England, whether we have a banner foliage year, or if it’s an off year, it most always delivers beauty!

I’m writing too much today! Before I get to my forecast, I quickly wanted to mention the awful natural disasters striking many regions this summer!

Three catastrophic hurricanes have caused biblical amounts of destruction. On top of that, an intense earthquake shook Mexico City last week, killing many. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the victims in this vicious display of natural force.

What’s next? Scientists are keeping a close eye on possibly a major volcanic eruption. One near Mexico City (like they need that)! And the other in Indonesia. The wrath of Mother nature is the most powerful force on earth, and can strike without warning, anywhere on the planet!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10! Expect warm and dry weather for the rest of today, through Wednesday. Temperatures will be near 80 along the coast, to near 90 inland!

In addition, watch for an increase in humidity levels, especially tomorrow and Wednesday, when it feel quite muggy out! As the humidity increases, fog could form, especially along the coast late at night and early mornings.

A strong autumn cold front will be charging towards New England on Wednesday. This cold front will act as two things. First, it will introduce a fall like air mass for the period of Thursday through Sunday.

Second, it will act as a deflector, as it protects Maria from tracking north into New England, shifting her east, and tracking her out to sea. Thank Goodness!

As the cold front arrives, there will be a band of showers moving through later Wednesday, into Wednesday night. There’s a slight chance of a period of heavy rain in southeastern Massachusetts overnight Wednesday, as the cold front interacts with high humidity levels leftover from Maria.

Temperatures may reach into the low 70’s on Thursday, but will fall into the 60’s on Friday through Sunday. Night time lows will be chilly, with many 30’s and 40’s. All along, expect mainly sunny weather, along with some fair weather cumulus clouds. Great for fall a fall foliage trip, or apple picking! Enjoy the cool weather, it may warm up all over again come next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring these unusual weather patterns, and let you know whether we have anymore beach days left! I will also have an October preview, and my September review. Wow! October 1st is Sunday! I will also have another fall foliage report! In the meantime, enjoy the sea of warmth while it lasts…the tide will eventually turn!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy 16th Birthday to my nephew Nicholas!!~

More Tropical Trouble! 9/18/17

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! Each morning featured thick fog, and murky conditions along the coast. As the sun warmed up the atmosphere, this fog burned off, leading to quite beautiful afternoons each day.

Though it felt like summer out there, the seasons are slowly beginning to change. In fact, the official first day of fall is this Friday!

One sign of the seasons changing is the increase in foggy mornings. Some friends were asking me what’s up with all this fog around here past couple mornings?

There are many ways fog develops. One way, is when the air temperature and dew point (measure of moisture in the air) are the same. When this happens, the air becomes a 100% saturated.

Because the nights are longer now, the air temperature has more time to drop, and can fall to the dew point more easily, developing fog…sometimes pea soup fog!

I was chatting with a life long friend of mine this past weekend, and we got around talking about the tropics. He’s not as much of a weather fanatic as me, but he understands the concepts of weather quite well, and is quite interested in it.

We typically chat about current events in each season. With it being the peak of hurricane season, we talked about the season so far, and he asked me what my thoughts were about Jose.

Ahhh, yes…good old Jose! It seems like he’s been milling around the Atlantic for two weeks now! And in fact, he has been!

To say the least, it’s been an active season, so far. After many dormant years, the hurricanes have returned in a vengeance.

Earlier, it appeared as if another El Nino, and plumes of Saharan dust off Africa, was going to inhibit the development of hurricanes once again this season. But oh, have things changed!

It’s amazing how the atmosphere has adjusted to produce this active season. What once looked like a El Nino season, has quickly turned into another La Nina in the Pacific Ocean.

You ask, what does this have to do with the hurricanes in the Atlantic? Well, El Nino increase wind shear in the tropics. This prohibits storms from developing. La Nina is more stable, which results in a conducive environment for hurricane development.

But it’s not just that. A massive high pressure system parked in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, has proved to be the catalyst for tracking hurricanes this season.

The high pressures clockwise ciculation is the driver, tracking these storms from off of Africa westward, towards the Caribbean and United States.

The catastrophic destruction these storms have caused, has beeen shocking. And it’s not done yet. I will be discussing more about this shortly.

Getting back to Jose. My friend pointed out to me the sudden drop in ocean temperatures off the New England coast. And he asked me whether this is going to diminish the chances of New England being struck with a big hurricane this season?

As I mentioned above, Hurricane Jose has been wandering around the Atlantic, seemingly lost, for weeks now. Why is this happening? Well, for one, the enormous high pressure system previously mentioned above, is essentially blocking this storm from moving harmlessly out to sea.

So what does that mean for us here in New England? Well, after doing a loop de loop out in the Atlantic, it now appears Jose is beginning to make his move northward. Computer models have been all over the place in tracking this storm!

With that being said, it appears as if the computer models have come to some general agreement with the track of this storm.

I can totally understand the public worrying about a major storm hitting New England! After the horrifying video, and constant catastrophic news reports, who wouldn’t be concerned?

Before you get too worked up, I want to let you know what my thoughts are, regarding this storm. First, Jose is currently a minimum hurricane, with max winds of 80 mph. This in itself is enough to do some serious damage.

However, a couple things are going to happen to Jose before it arrives. Number one, it’s moving slow. This is a good and bad thing for us. The good thing, is that in most cases, hurricanes need to be moving very fast to maintain their tropical characteristics to be a big problem for us here in New England.

This means the storm is weakening as it encounters cooler water surrounding New England. Remember what my friend said about the cooler water off New England? Yes, this will definitely weaken the storm. Hurricanes need a minimum of 80 degree ocean temperature to maintain their strength.

As this happens, the storm is going to trasform into a cold core storm, or like a winter time nor’easter that we typically get around here.

The bad news is that this storm is also going to track very much like a nor’easter would, and is going to stall, or even do another loop southeast of Nantucket Island.

This may prolong the strong winds down on the Cape, and beach erosion elsewhere along the coastline. I will have all these details shortly in my forecast.

If that’s not enough, we have Maria to worry about now! Maria is going to turn into another catastrophic major hurricane. I can see this intensifying into at least a category 4, and possibly even a 5 over the next couple days.

This is just horrendous news for folks in the Leeward Islands, many of which were just destroyed by Irma. Maria is currently going through rapid intensification. It’s possible that the storm is cat 3 (130 mph winds) while going through the Leeward Islands. This would be the only piece good news I can see for them.

However, my concern is, computer models are really ramping her up as she approaches Puerto Rico, as a cat 4 (150 mph winds), or even stronger! Computer models show her tracking right over the center of the island, sparing none.

This would result in catastrophic flooding across the mountainous terrain, along with destructive high winds. Not a good situation unfolding down there at all.

What does the future track of Maria look like? Well, we can’t even get Jose nailed down at this juncture! However, long range patterns do show that folks on the east coast must keep an eye out for Maria, as she could track close to the coast, and spread flooding rains up the coast. I will continue to monitor.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to briefly chat about our upcoming weather patterns. Now that La Nina is becomming established, it appears as if the mild to warm weather is going to continue here in New England, well into the fall. This does not mean we will not have some chilly episodes, but overall, it’s looking warm at least through October.

Right now, long range computer models are beginning to print out maps for the upcoming winter. At this early junture, I can see another banner snow year coming up for New England ski resorts…possibly even more snow than last year!

The Boston area is a coin toss, and I will not know how severe or mild the winter will be until late November. Remember, La Nina’s are highly variable in Boston! I have to study more information to be able to make an educated call sometime in November! I will continue to keep everyone updated with my research.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. Sorry about the overzealous nice weather forecast for last week! While the first few days were on target, the remnants of Irma really fouled up the forecast towards the end of the week. Too many showers and thunderstorms, and too much foggy weather! Let’s try this again!

For this week, I’m calling for a 5 out of 10. Expect mainly cloudy and somewhat muggy weather for the rest of today. It should remain dry, with highs mainly in the lower 70’s.

As Jose appraoches tonight, expect increasing clouds along with the chance of some showers across the Cape. A tropical storm warning is in place for coastal Rhode Island, Cape Cod, and the South Shore up to Hull. This means you will see winds in excess of 39 mph, along with tropical downpours of rain.

Tuesday should feature increasing, gusty winds out of the northeast. As winds increase, expect showers to traverse the region from south to north. At this point, I’m not expecting a washout around Boston tomorrow, but it will be wet at times.

Conditions will deteriorate later Tuesday, and expecially at night across the region. Rain, heavy at times will be spreading across the Boston area and up along the coast. The heaviest rain looks to be confined along and east of the I95 corridor. right now, I’m anticipating between 1 and 2″ of rain around Boston.

Although it will rain, I’m not expecting nothing too heavy north and west from there. Winds will also be increasing to up to 40 mph in the Boston area, possibly up to 50 mph along the South Shore, and extreme east coast areas.

Being closer to the center, the Cape will bear the brunt of this storm. Heavy rain, possibly up to 3 to 5″ and strong winds gusting up to 60 mph will result in some downed trees and scattered power outages.

With these strong onshore winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion is always a concern. Right now, I would say there is low to moderate risk of a least some coastal flooding in typical areas that are prone to flooding. I’m not anticipating major flooding.

Also keep in mind the these type of storms produce dangerous rip currents, and unexpected large waves. The NWS is expecting waves of up to 20 ft! It goes without saying to stay out of the water until the storm passes!

This includes fishing boats. A few people already needed to be recued after being swept off rocks due to an unexpected large wave off the coast of Rhode Island this past weekend!

Heavy rain and the strongest winds should abate around Boston by midday Wednesday, but may continue down the Cape for much of the day. It will be on the muggy side.

Expect slowly improving weather on Thursday. Early morning low clouds, and fog may improve to some afternoon sun. If this happens, it will warm up well into the 70’s.

As for Friday, the first day of autumn, expect it to feel more like summer! After some early morning fog, it should turn mostly sunny and very warm, with highs near 80.

Right now, the weekend is looking to be very warm and dry. Expect sunny and very warm weather on Saturday, with highs in the mid 80’s! Beach anyone? Sunday may be slightly cooler at the coast, but another sunny and warm day appears to be on tap! Enjoy!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my first fall foliage report for everyone! I will also have another update on the tropics. In the meantime, our tropical troubles will pale in comparison for folks who have to deal with Maria! Please keep them in your prayers!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Meanwhile…It’s Back To Summer! 9/11/17

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a fallish feel to the weather, as temperatures felt more like late September, rather than the beginning. This was in stark contrast to what was going down in Florida!

It’s hurricane season, folks! In fact, Hurricane Irma struck at the exact peak of hurricane season, which happens to be on September 10th!

After a record dormant stretch, the U.S. has now been hit by two category 4 hurricanes in the same season, for the first time in recorded history!

Hard to believe the last time any major hurricane had struck the U.S. with a category 3 or higher, was way back in 2005! It’s been a long time coming, but the hurricanes are back with a vengeance!

If you need to be reminded, hurricanes are the largest, widespread, dangerous & most destructive storms on earth. These are powerful storms, that are very difficult to forecast, with erratic tracks, and levels of intensity. Part of this reason is because hurricanes typically form where steering currents are weak, or non existant.

Like many around New England, I was in awe watching hurricane coverage on all the major networks yesterday.

With the advancements in technology, it truly felt as if we were there watching the storm ufold! While I loved seeing the live coverage, I had an uneasy felling in my stomach.

I was chatting with my good weather friend Remy last evening about the storm coverage. We both were very disturbed how networks place reporters and meteorologists in danger, during the height of the storm, just to increase ratings and social media attention.

We both agreed it’s irresponsible, extremely dangerous, and sets a bad example for evacuation efforts!

Just yesterday, I saw two meteorologists from The Weather Channel in very dangerous situations. One was reporting live in Miami. At first, he was reporting on a boardwalk showing the rising water behind him, with 70 mph winds battering him. This may have not been good enough for ratings. I was shocked in the next report, as he was then standing in waist deep storm surge water, witrh waves splashing on him!

Another was in Naples, where a meteorologist was reporting live during the arrival of the eyewall. While I’ll admit it was fascinating watching him battle through the worst of the storm, I was shocked when it appeared as if a small tornado crossed the street and nearly sucked him up into its vortex! While The Weather Channel may have loved the ratings, I’m sure his wife and family thought differently!

As far as I could see, the highest wind gust in Florida was reported from Naples, where an amazing gust of 142 mph was recorded!

Yet, as bad as it was, this storm could of been a lot worse!! At one point, this was a powerful category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 185 mph! Unfortunately, for Barbuda and St. Martin, they bore the brunt of this storm, as the eye passed right over them, absolutely destroying 90% of the islands.

It must of been a terrifying experience witnessing that event. As a comparison, you could say it’s the same as being in a F3 tornado for about 8 straight hours!

Had the storm not interacted with Cuba, this may of been the fate for south Florida. In addition, the track Irma took actually spared the western coast a devastating storm surge. Offshore winds literally blew the water out of the harbors and bays, to the north of the eyewall.

The fear from many, and myself, was as the eyewall tracked north along the coast, the water would rush back into the coastline, resulting in a dangerous storm surge. Well, Thank God the worst scenerio did not materialize!!

While many did see a storm surge, coastal communities dodged a HUGE bullet in my opinion! Rather than remaining over the Gulf waters, paralleling the Florida coast, Irma jogged right as the eye went over Naples, then proceeded to move north over the center of Florida.

With this slight change in the track, the surge literally got “cut off” from flooding the coast. I can only attribute this as a kind act of God, sparing these locations total destruction.

This small change in the track caught many off gaurd, including local meteorologists, National Weather Service, and The National Hurricane Center. Again, this sudden change in the track spared the coastline millions of dollars in damages.

While this was good news for areas such as Tampa Bay and Tallahassee, the sudden change in track meant bad news for east coast cities such as Jacksonville!

Just when you thought the worst would bypass you to your west, your city suddenly ends up with a major storm surge this morning! The small 50 mile shift meant east coast side of Florida became vulnerable to storm surge.

Remember, the worst conditions of the storm, occurs in the northeast quardrant of the storm. This placed Jacksonville in this location.

I havn’t seen anny preliminary numbers, but I believe Irma may go down as one of the most costliest storms on record! This includes the catastrophic damage in Caribbean Islands which sustained a direct hit from the storm.

We could go on and on chatting about Irma. But I believe, many, including myself, are Irmered out!

Some years, these storms maintain their tropical moisture package, and soaks New England with flooding rains. This will not be the case this go around!

In fact, with the sudden increase in tropical activity, I’m beginning to see a retreat of our early fall weather patterns. While a coolish September seemed to be in the cards this year, it now appears as if the cool weather is retreating out west, and a large ridge of sunny and warm weather will dominate our weather possibly for the rest of the month!

Hello…HELLO??? Just as I thought. I hear no complaints from many out there! What once seemed like a sudden end to summer, now appears as if we may be entering a pattern similar to the past several years.

What does this mean?? Well, it may mean a resurgence of above normal temperatures, and fairly dry patterns heading into at least the first part of October.

This means more bouts of extended periods of Indian Summer heading into fall. This keeps the theme of “seasonal shift” going that we have been experiencing the past several years. Meaning, it takes quite a while for winter to begin in New England, often well after Christmas.

This also keeps the streak of fantastic weather during the month of September going! It’s so ironic how inclement patterns linger through the summer months, only to finally straighten themselves out when everyone goes back to school and work in September!

Does all this have any implecations for the upcoming winter…maybe. What seemed like a weak El Nino (slightly warm water in Pacific Ocean) developing this winter, has now reverted to at least a moderate, if not strong La Nina (colder than normal water in Pacific Ocean). This may have major implications on our winter, which may be beginning to show its effects here in early fall.

Unfortunately, the warmer temperatures may delay our fall foliage season, once again. I know many have commented on the early splashes of color, but I’m concerned the warm temperatures will keep the leaves greener, deeper into the fall.

This doesn’t mean that a dull season is coming, it just means that it may linger longer, even into the first couple weeks of November, much like the past several years. Even if some colors are muted by the warm weather, autumn always delivers scenic beauty in our region!

While a warm, dry winter is not gauranteed, La Nina’s typically are not too snowy and cold here in Boston. There are exceptions. I can recall four La Nina years in the past 25, that brought Boston above normal snow.

In 1995-96, was a La Nina year which featured a very unusual blocking pattern, which helped Boston to, at the time, a record snow year.

In 2007-08, another La Nina, brought well above normal snow to much of New England. In fact, record snows fell up in northern New England!

Another La Nina year in 2010-11 delivered a surprisingly heavy snow year. This year had some questions whether the Icelandic volcano eruptions aided in surpressing the jet stream that winter, helping in the near record snows.

Then there was last year. Despite a very warm fall, Boston managed to accumulate slightly above average snow, with heavier than normal snows falling in the ski resorts and interior locations.

So if you’re a snow fan, all is not lost. However, the odds are not with us. I would say about 3 out of 10 La Nina’s are snowy in Boston, or about only 33%. The rest of those years you can throw into the garbage.

The odds are better if you live well inland, and up north, where you may see 6 or 7 out of 10 La Nina winters on the snowy side. Time to move north!!

In the shorter term, the weather this week looks to bring back summertime temperatures to much of the region. In fact, I am rating this week a solid 9 out of 10!!

As we remember the 9/11 terrorist attacks on our country today, the weather could not be any similar than it was on that fateful day.

Expect nearly a 100% of full sunshine for the rest of today. It will be warm, with high temperatures near 80 degrees. Look for clear skies tonight, with lows only in the 60’s.

I’m expecting summer time weather for much of the remainder of this week! Look for excellent beach weather for the period of tomorrow through Thursday, with sunshine and highs in the lower to mid 80’s, and nightime lows in the 60’s.

The remnants of Irma may attmept to move through the area on Friday. While some computer models attempt to produce some rainfall, I mainly see just cloudy weather on this day, with slightly cooler temperatures, in the lower 70s. I can’t rule out some scattered showers, but a washout is not anticipated.

Any early scattered showers will move out on Saturday, leading to a pleasant day, with partly sunny skies, and highs in the 70’s. Sunday looks like a beauty! Sunny skies are expected, with temperatures near 80 once again!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing about how long we can expect this warm weather to continue for. I will also have a new tropical update, and also talk a bit more about what kind of weather we can expect this fall. In the meantime, If you love summer, put the sweaters away, and head to the beach!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Goodbye, Summer 2017…9/4/17

Hello! Happy Labor Day, to all! Much like the whole summer, the weather left a lot to be desired for around New England this weekend. Saturday was mainly sunny, but very chilly down on the Cape and along coastal communities!

Sunday was a washout, with the remnants of Harvey tracking through the region. The weather seems to have stabilized today, with sunny and pleasantly warm temperatures across much of the region.

Labor Day marks the unofficial end to summer around here. Autumn officially arrives on September 22nd. However, meteorological fall began on September 1st.

This typically means nothing to Mother Nature. It’s only a system the NWS set up to keep a better system for records.

Depending on the year, fall like weather can place a premature end to the summer party.

This has not been the case the past several years. I distinctly recall summer not missing a beat head into September.

In fact, Boston has experienced more 90 degree days the past several Septembers, than I can ever recall. The city typically averages one 90 degree day in September. September has truly been a bonafied summer month as of late.

This year has been different, to say the least. Early signs of autumn abound everywhere as of late. From splashes of fall color in August, to overnight lows in the 30’s in some suburbs, to actual snow on top of Mt. Washington…many folks are asking me, just what the heck is going on here?

Depending on the year, our weather in September can range from summertime heat, to cool autumn winds, and chilly nights!

Rather than blaming it on El Nino or La Nina, I believe it’s more of Mother Nature wanting to balance out patterns. The weather is always trying to balance things out!

No doubt, global factors play a role. Last year, we had a developing La Nina, and we had a warm autumn. This year, we also have another La Nina, yet we have a cooler look to the pattern this fall. In this case, the devil is in the details!

I talk a lot about El Nino, and La Nina. El Nino being the warm water phase in the south Pacific off of South America. La Nina is the cold water phase in the same location.

Typically, La Nina bring warm and dry winters to Boston. El Nino winters are typically cold and wet. However, there are different flavors to both of these phases. Other global factors can influence El Nino/La Nina, and bring different seasonal conditions here in Boston.

For instance, last year was a La Nina winter. While not a blockbuster winter for Boston, we did manage to receive slightly above normal amounts of snow. This, in itself was unusual for a La Nina winter.

No doubt, interior New England and the ski resorts received well above average amounts of snow last winter.

If La Nina or El Nino become too strong, it may alter the patterns enough resulting in less than average snow for Boston. Whereas the close these indeces are to neutral, the bigger the winter we typically get.

All in all, I thought last year turned out to be a fairly average winter for much of New England. Which is a rarity these days!

What about right now? Friends and family want to know why it’s getting so cold, so early! And is summer over?

My sister and brother in law were vacationing up in Maine last week, and they reported back to me that fall colors are already showing up!

My brother was down on the Cape, and he told me they almost lit a fire because it was so cold down there on Saturday.

Things do appear to be moving right along this year. Reflecting back to my comments earlier, Mother Nature is all about balancing things out.

We quickly forget just how warm it’s been in New England the past couple years. This includes a couple absurdly warm autumn’s. I believe this September is just a natural adjustment to the warm cycle.

After the record smashing winter of 2014-15, Mother Nature has been very kind to us the past couple years. I believe it was something like 22 out of 24 months that featured either above average temperatures, or even well above average temperatures.

The change began last March. After an unusually warm February, temperatures plummetted in March, resulting in a icy cold start to spring.

Temperatures rebounded in April to above average, but has been below in each month since then. The big question now, is this the start of a trend that’s going to continue into our winter, or is our warm ways going to return come November? I will continue to closely monitor this as we work deeper into autumn.

Looking over the weather charts this morning, it appears to me as if summer will be over sooner rather than later around here this year.

Because summer officially still has a couple weeks left, I’ll wait a week or two before writing a review of our summer, and seeing how my summer forecast verified.

Chatting with my sister the other day, folks up in coastal Maine had a unwanted guest return this summer. Remember the awful drought of last summer? Yes, it has reappeared in coastal Maine this summer.

For the most part, repetitive soaking rain and snow events have erradicated the drought down here in Massachusetts. However, as I was explaining to my sister, there still remains a long term drought in the system.

Meaning, we caught up to water levels for this calender year, but still hold a deficit from the past couple years. Even around the Boston area, a dry period as of late has resulted in a haunting appearance of the brown lawns and wilting trees of last summer and fall.

I don’t believe this is going to worsen moving forward. In fact, a slow moving cold front entering New England this week looks to bring a good soaking rain to the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Long range outlooks also look promising for precipitation events heading into late fall and winter.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to chat about the implications of Hurricane Irma. A loyal fan and friend of mine asked me a excellent question on Facebook yesterday. She asked me if hurricanes weaken as they approach New England because of cold water? The short answer to this question is, yes!

Hurricanes need at least 80 degree temperatures to sustain their strength. Ocean temperatures just aren’t that warm up here off the coast of New England.

South of New England, off Long Island and the Cape, you may see some pockets of very warm water, due to the influence of the Gulf Stream.

With all this being said, this does not mean we are immune to hurricane strikes here in New England. If storms get caught up in the jet stream, they can accelerate, and not spend as much time over cooler waters.

The Great Hurricane of 1938 is a classic example of this. This storm was moving at an astounding 60 mph as it tracked off the mid Atlantic coast, smashing into southern New England! For comparison sake, Harvey was moving at a whopping 3 mph!

To this date, the 1938 hurricane is still considered to be the worst storm New England has ever seen, in recorded history.

Keep in mind this was back in 1938. Satellite imagery, and computer models in this day and age most likely would of prevented the catastrophy seen in 1938.

Nonetheless, due to a unprecedented storm surge, 600 people drowned in downtown Providence, as the ocean flooded the city.

An unheard of gust of 186 mph was clocked on top of the Great Blue Hill in Milton, Ma. before the anenometer broke!

Severe tree damage to the likes never seen before ravaged most of New England, especially areas of Vermont, due to the enhancement of hilly terrain.

Other notable hurricanes and tropical storms struck the region in 1944, 2 in 1954, and 1960. In more recent times, we’ve had Gloria in 1985, Bob in 1991, and Irene in 2011.

That was then , this is now. What’s happening with Irma? Latest computer model runs has its eyes set on Florida. Early indications show a track similar to Donna in 1960.

This was a catastrophic storm for Florida, which then tracked right up the east coast bringing hurricane conditions to each state on its way.

At this point, the effects, if any, for us here in New England is still unclear. Latest computer model runs are showing a direct hit on Florida, moving from south to north, across the whole state.

From there, current projections show the hurricane weakening, and dissolving across southeastern U.S. Because it’s still so far away, this could change.

Should the storm remain over the east side of Florida, with the center out in the Atlantic, it could track up the coast and be a bigger problem for us here in New England, as Donna was in 1960. I will be tracking this storm through the week, and will sure to update everyone if warranted.

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect sunny weather for the rest of your Labor Day. Look for temperatures to warm up into the lower 80s. Tonight will be fair and warmer than previous nights, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Watch for mainly sunny and warmer conditions for your Tuesday. If you have the day off, consider heading for the beach for a final time? Highs will warm into the mid to even upper 80’s! There may be some increasing clouds later in the day.

A strong cold front will be approaching the area tomorrow night, and stall over the region on Wednesday. This front will produce a line of showers and thunderstorms with it.

The heaviest rain should remain west of our area through tomorrow. However, expect these showers to approach Boston sometime tomorrow night, along with the chance of thunder. If skies permit, check out the full “Harvest Moon”!

Look for inclement weather for Wednesday and into early Thursday this week. It will not be raining all the time, but when it does, the potential exists for some torrential showers and thunderstorms, which could result in urban street flooding. Temperatures will cool into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s.

Expect conditions to improve just in time for the Patriots home opener against the Chiefs Thursday night. If you’re going, bring a jacket with you, as temperatures will quickly fall into the 50’s as the night wears on. Go Patriots!

Friday should feature a day with a sun and cloud mixture. Due to unstable atmosphere, there may be a pop up shower or thundershower during the afternoon. It will be seasonable, with highs in the lower 70’s.

Expect a mainly sunny, and fall like weekend here in New England. Temperaures will be in the 60’s during the day, and 40’s at night. No doubt, some colder rural areas will once again see some 30’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will undoubtedly be busy tracking Irma! Please check in for that update. I will also have a forecast for the upcoming autumn season, and fall foliage outlook if time permits. In the meantime, enjoy the fall, we all know what season comes next!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

A Touch of Fall…8/28/17

Hello, all! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Though a bit on the cool side, the weekend remained dry, with no rain to speak of. After a hot day last Tuesday, temperatures have been steadily cooling off each passing day.

It happens. Every so often, this time of year, a cool airmass will invade New England from eastern Canada. If you look closely at the picture I posted attached to this post, and asked, is that frost? Yes, this is frost that occurred just the other morning on the fields of Mt. Washington! Yikes!

Does this mean summer is over? Well, frost on top of Mt. Washington this time of the year, is not that unusual. Don’t forget, it’s the tallest peak in New England, standing at 6,288 feet above sea level. Mt. Washinton has seen snow fall in each of the 12 months out of the year. This includes the three summer months of June, July, and August!

With all that being said, I look at clues like this, as signs from Mother Nature. During the fall, the atmosphere cools first in higher elevations, then slowly spreads to the valleys as we get deeper into autumn.

You may say, Pete, IT’S NOT FALL YET! Please don’t take away the last couple weeks of summer we have left! It was too short as it was! These are all valid points. It’s so hard to let go to things that we love!

While skiers around the region are licking their chops, beach goers and fans of summer are nervous as to what may lie ahead.

And for good reason. The early repetitive cool shots will begin to take its toll on our fleeting summer. Despite the chillier air amss, it’s still hasn’t been too bad here in late August.

But as September rolls in later this week, the nights will begin to get a bit longer, and the sun angle bit lower. Sometime shortly after Labor Day, you will wake up early one morning, and ask yourself, where did this come from? It’s freezing outside! At that point, we’ll come to the realize, that summer, is indeed over.

Yes, shorter than previous years. It shouldn’t be a total surprise. If you recall my summer forecast made back in May, I did mention to expect a shorter summer this year, with it most likely fizzling as we head into August.

Oh, it’s going to get warm again! Even this week, Thursday looks like it may climb back up into the lower 80’s. But from what I’m seeing, I do not foresee an endless summer that we’ve enjoyed the past several years, deep into November.

While temperatures steadily warmed heading into August and September past couple years, I’m expect a reverse of that trend this year.

The question then becomes, is fall really coming and staying? Well, this is a very good question. Long range computer data have been futile this year in seasonal forecasts.

Some computer models continue to build the chill into the east as we head deeper into September. While others, back off the cool look, and actually turns it warmer as we head into the second half of September.

A lot hinges on what role storms in the Pacific Ocean. Recurving typhoons in the western Pacific pump warm air northward towards Alaska. In return, cool air pools in eastern Canada, and depending on the jet stream, often times spills down into the eastern part of the U.S. Kind of like a see saw.

Computer models are forecasting some recurving typhoons heading into September. If this were to be a reoccurring thing, the weather patterns will indeed be racing towards an early start to winter around here.

For now, let’s plan on fall like weather arriving a bit earlier than normal for us here in New England. Next week, I will have a more in depth look at the weather for September, and a general outlook for autumn.

With all that being said, I don’t want to make folks nervous! The good news is, I generally see another beautiful September for us this year. While the past few Septembers have been more like summer, this year will have an autumnal feel to it. Perfect for apple picking and early fall foliage trips!

Overall, temperatures should average close to normal, with times of chilly weather, and also periods of mild days. The dry trend as of late should also continue, so long as passing hurricanes don’t get involved. I always believed our best month of weather is September. This year should be no exception!

As we prepare for fall like weather here in New England, folks in Texas have been suffering through a catastrophic natural weather event.

Hurricane Harvey, is the strongest hurricane to strike anywhere in the U.S. since Wilma of 2005. It’s also the strongest storm to hit Texas in nearly two decades.

Before the storm arrived, computer models were forecasting inches of rain like we measure snow in blizzards here in New England. Unfortunately, those numbers have been met, and then some.

So far, Houston has received over two feet of rain. As the circulation of the storm reaches the Gulf of Mexico today, it may actually reintensify into a category 1 hurricane once again. When this occurs, Houston may be flooded with another foot or more of rain!

This is an absolute natural catastrophy! One that has been in the works for years now. My thoughts and prayers go out to the poor folks in Texas, many who have lost everything they have. My hope is that FEMA provides the necessary support for folks who have lost so much.

Here’s your weekly beach and boating forecast. It’s going to be a fairly cool week for the beach. You may also run into boating difficulties due to a strengthening storm off our coast around midweek.

You could make a case for the beach on Thursday, as this will be the warmest day of the week, but you may have to dodge a few showers or even some thunder.

Next weekend is looking good, especially Saturday and Sunday. It may not be as hot as you would like it, but it should be fine for outdoor activities, including the beach.

Now for your detailed weekly summer forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Fine September like weather. Expect a beautiful afternoon, with brilliant sunshine, and temperatures between 70 and 75.

It appears as if the smokey skies of the past couple days have cleared. This was due to prevailing winds from Canada, transporting wildfire smoke into our region.

Tonight will feature clear and chilly weather, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s regionwide. Later at night, low clouds may increase off the ocean.

While it should remain dry Tuesday, the combination of a brisk wind off of the ocean, and clouds streamimg in from a developing ocean storm, will make Tuesday feel more like early October. Expect high temperatures to hold in the upper 60’s, across much of eastern Massachusetts.

As the storm off the coast intensifies, a shield of rain may make it as far north as Boston for a time late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

This is not a gaurantee, and the rain may miss us all together. Nevertheless, expect brisk winds on Wednesday, especially in the morning. As the day progresses, expect with increasing sunshine. With a wind off the ocean, it will remain on the cool side, with highs barely reaching 70.

As winds shift to the southwest Wednesday night, expect temperatures to not be as cool, with lows mainly in the upper 50’s and low 60’s.

Thursday will feature warmer southwest winds, along with higher levels of humidity. Temperatures will respond, with highs mainly in the lower 80’s. Unfortunately, a cold front will be approaching the area, and may spark off some afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Behind the front, it will turn sharply cooler once again for Friday. Welcome September! With a brisk wind, expect it to feel decidedly more like fall, with highs mainly in the 60’s to near 70. With light winds, it will turn chilly Friday night, with widespread 50’s. A preview to things to come?

Temperatures may hold in the 50’s across urban areas. However, as we have seen lately, there will be some 40’s in usual cooler rural areas, and even some upper 30’s up north!

At this point, the first two thirds of the holiday weekend is looking good. Right now, Saturday looks to be the best of the three days, with sunshine and milder temperatures. Sunday should be okay too, with possibly some increasing clouds late?

Monday looks a bit iffy. I don’t see an all day washout by any means. However, a front will be appraoching the area, and may bring with it cloudiness, and possibly some showers at some point in the day.

There’s also an equal chance that this front may be delayed a bit, and the showers may hold off until Monday night. Temps look seasonal, mainly in the 70’s. As they say, timing is everthing!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new monthly forecast for September, as well as a review for August.

I will also talk about our recent dry spell, and the impications it may have moving forward. Have you noticed the lawns lately?

If time permits, I will also have a general forecast for fall, not official yet. In the meantime, no worries about frost for a while here in Boston. But on top of Mt. Washington, snow is next!

~Have a safe & happy Labor Day weekend!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

*Happy Birthday to my niece, Alex!*

Great American Eclipse! 8/21/17

Hello! Happy Great American Solar Eclipse Day! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! As has been the case the majority of the summer, Sunday proved to be the nicest day. By no means was Saturday a washout. After a murky start in some areas, it too turned out to be a decent summer day.

Friday was a different story, all together. Many forecasted heavy rain, but few knew exactly where it was going to fall. As it turned out, the ground barely got wet in the Boston area. This was not the case on the Cape and the Islands.

Torrential rains, to the tune of 3 to 8″ fell on the Cape Friday night. This is why forecasting widespread rain in the summer is so difficult. Computer models showed it, but were off in timing and locations. At the last second, the heaviest of rain shifted south of Boston.

I spoke with a friend of mine on Saturday, and he wasn’t surprised. He told me the worst of the weather typically splits as it heads close to the city, with heaviest falling north and south of Boston, leaving the city with high and dry!

I have to say, there may be some truth to the statement. I don’t know if you recall, but a couple of weeks ago, I forecasted a soaking rainstorm for Boston for the night the day I made my forecast. As evening approached, computer models shifted this heavy rain, where? Once again, south of the City!

I have been studying weather my whole life. Truth is, Boston does get its share of rain and snow. But I have to agree, heavier pockets do seem to avoid the city on a whole. I’m not 100% sure of this, but the ocean could play a role in stabilizing storms, especially in the summer, as they approach the city.

I have been watching another interesting trend developing over the last several weeks. After such a wet spring and early summer, it’s actually becoming a bit dry around the Boston area. Is it possible the severe drought we had last summer into the winter, is creeping back in again?

The pattern over the next several weeks does appear to be on the drier side. Abnormally dry to even moderate drought advisories have been posted along the coast of Maine this summer. It would not shock me, if these advisories began spreading down the coast, into the Boston area as we head into fall.

For the most part, the severe drought is over, and I do not anticipate it coming back anytime soon. We’ve had much more precipitation this year, and it’s been a much greener summer around here, too!

However, I do want to caution folks. The drought we endured was one of the worst in decades. While precipitation has been plentiful as of late, Boston is still running a deficit from two years ago. Will we ever make up that deficit? This is a difficult question to answer. Statistics are all relative.

If we are at normal or a bit above right now, do we just sweep the other very abnormally dry years under a rug and forget about them? I don’t believe we do. One of Mother Nature’s past time is to balance weather patterns out. I do believe we have more heavy precipitation in our future…perhaps with a stormy winter?

Yes, I hear your complaints! My brother in law cornered me yesterday to voice his opinion about this summer’s weather. He feels as if it has been disappointly cool and wet summer. I can understand, especially after the nearly 4″ of rain that fell in Falmouth Friday night.

So what’s the deal…is perception, reality? In my summer forecast, I cautioned folks that this was going to be a wetter summer than last year. Which it has been.

I also wrote that it was a going to be difficult to measure up to last summer. Anything less, and the perception would  make it seem like a crummy summer.

The reality is, is that it has been closer to a normal summer around here, than one would think. As is typical in New England, we’ve had a mix of just about everything.

While we’ve had our share of cool days, we have also had 3 heat waves this summer. None so far in August, but August was forecasted to turn suddenly cooler. It was forecasted to be a front loaded summer, with the hottest weather occurring earlier, rather than later,

With all that being said, the stats don’t lie. So far, the summer has averaged slightly cooler than normal. So my brother in law may be on to something!

The number of 90 degree days supports this, too. So far, Boston has had eleven 90 degree days. After starting out so strong, the heat has certainly petered out. On average, Boston hits 90 about 14 times each season. We may get one more tomorrow, then I don’t see anymore for the rest of August.

What does the rest of August look like? On average, it’s looking to be cooler than normal. In fact, come this weekend, many will be complaining that it’s too cold, especially at night!

I look to look at August in the calendar, similar to February. Remember the 70’s we experienced last February, and the case of spring fever gripping the region?

Well, I’m expecting something similar this August, but this time, it will be a case of an early touch of fall!

Does this mean summer is over? I’m not ready to declare that, just yet! I believe temperatures will come back to seasonal levels, if not a bit above, towards the end of the month.

Now, let’s get to the matter at hand. Today is finally the day! Unless you’ve been living under a rock, today is the Great American Solar Eclipse! In just a few hours, the moon will be passing between the sun and the earth, resulting in 63% coverage of the sun in the Boston area.

In a 70 mile strip, from the Pacific Northwest extending southeast across the country to South Carolina, folks are going to enjoy a total eclipse of the sun!

If you miss this eclipse, no worries! In April of 2024, another eclipse is going to happen! This time, totality will be much closer to Boston! In fact, far northern New Hampshire and Vermont will see 100% totality, while Boston may be about 80%. Definitely something to look forward to!

How’s the weather looking for the eclipse, today? Well, for the most part, it’s looking good. I’m slightly concerned about a thin veil of high clouds. The sky may have a slight milky appearance to it. It’s difficult to say exactly what the sky will be like at the peak time of 2:46 this afternoon.

Nonetheless, I don’t believe the sun will ever become 100% obscured. Remember not to look directly into the sun. If the sun is shining through, it’s still could be very dangerous to look directly up into the sun, without safety glasses.

If the clouds are thick enough, but still lets dim sun shine through, it may be possible to look up at the eclipse, without danger. This is your call, but proceed with caution! It’s always safer to have the protective glasses!

Here’s your beach and boating forecast. The best beach days this week look to be today and tomorrow. Wednesday may be okay too, but there is a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms.

Thereafter, it may turn a bit too cool to be at the beach later in the week, extending into next weekend. On the plus side, it looks like fantastic weather for camping and hiking!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect sunshine, mixed with some high cirrus clouds today. It will become very warm, and a bit more humid, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s.

Watch for more humid weather tonight, along with the possibility of some fog on Cape Cod, and the south coast. There will be no rain, with low temperatures mainly in the 60’s.

Expect warm to hot weather for tomorrow. It should be a great beach day, once the fog burns off on the coast. Computer models were forecasting temps in the lower 90’s, but some have since scaled back temperatures to the upper 80’s. I’ll split the difference, and call for a high of 90 degrees in Boston.

Tuesday night should be on the warm side, with lows mainly in the 60’s. A cold front approaching New England may touch off a few showers overnight, but no washout is anticipated.

Wednesday will feature a continuation of warm weather. As the front crosses the region, there is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms during the day. Again, a total washout is not anticipated, but expect to get wet at some point during the day.

After this front pushes off the coast, a cooler and drier regime will settle into New England. Expect cooler and drier weather for the period of Thursday through Sunday.

Thursday may be the best day of the three. As cold air aloft settles into the region on Friday through Sunday, expect early morning sun, to give way to building afternoon cumulus clouds.

I can’t even rule out a brief shower or sprinkle. In patterns like this, the Cape typically fairs best, with the most amount of sun, with cloudiest weather in the hills and mountains.

Temperatures will be below average. With highs mainly in the 70’s, and lows in the 50’s. It would not shock me to see some low temperatures fall into the upper 30’s and 40’s in some of the colder valley locations! Brrrr!!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a sneak peek into our early autumn forecast. I will also let you know if there will be any summer left for us this season! In the meantime, enjoy the hot weather tomorrow! Like the eclipse today, it may be fading memory all too soon!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Celestial Excitement! 8/14/17

Hello, everyone! Another late post! Expect this trend to possibly continue for a few more weeks, as I take my short weekend trips around New England!

This weekend landed me down on Cape Cod, in Falmouth. My schedule is a bit unusual, as I have Sunday and Monday’s off. Regardless, I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend, wherever you were!

The weather this past weekend was 50/50 proposition. Saturday was cloudy and muggy around Boston, with very little rain. Sunday was a major improvement! Much drier air penetrated into Boston during the early morning hours.

It was interesting to note how much more muggy the weather was when I made it down to the Cape around noontime. Within about a half hour of arrival, a sudden gust of wind pushed the muggy air temporarily offshore. So you could say the drier, more comfortable air was traveling right along with me!

I was very excited to see a new piece of weather equipment installed in my sister in law’s garden! According to the brand new rain gauge, they received approximately 2 1/2″ and a half inches of rain over the course of Friday and Saturday!

As skies cleared last evening, I wondered whether we would see any leftover meteors from the Perseid Meteor Shower event. The peak for this was Friday and Saturday night.

However, learning from past experience, there still was the possibility to see some leftover activity, even after peak had past.

With dark conditions, and away from city lights, we indeed did see some streaking meteors! Unfortunately, a vail of high cloudiness suddenly appeared, putting an end to the show! No worries, the next event is the Leonid Meteor Shower, which happens around the same date, but in November.

Speaking of celestial events, we are now less than one week out to the Great American Solar Eclipse! This is huge! Before I get into the details, let me try to explain to everyone what is happening, as simply as possible.

I am not an expert at astronomy by any means. But because astronomy is very much tied into the weather, I am very interested in these celestial events. I find it quite fascinating!

In simple terms, the earth takes 24 hours to complete one revolution on its axis. While it’s doing this, we are also moving at an astounding 1000 miles per hour, on our way to orbiting the sun, in 365 days!

While all this is happening, our moon is also revolving around the earth. To make one orbit around the earth, it takes the moon approximately 28 days to accomplish this.

This is where a lot of complex physics and mathematics come into play, and about the time that I head for the hills! Every once in a great while, the moon will line up perfectly between the sun and earth!

You have to speak with a astrophysicist to get all the timing of how and when these events occur. We only need to know that it’s going to happen one week from today, and may not happen again for many years.

Making things more complicated, only a narrow strip of the country will see a total eclipse. This strip is only about 70 miles wide, and is called the umbra.

These locations include from the Pacific northwest, from about Salem, Oregon, extending on a southeast trajectory through the middle of the country, in states such as Nebraska, Missouri, Tennessee, then towards South Carolina.

What about here in Boston? Any areas outside of the umbra, will be in the penumbra, or partially shaded area. Here in Boston, 63% of the sun will be blocked out by the moon.

The event begins at approximately 1:28 in the afternoon, event peaking at 2:46, when the sky will certainly look more like late afternoon around here. Certainly not as dramatic as areas in the umbra, but a fascinating event indeed!

One word of caution…do not look directly into the sun!!Not having the correct glasses can be very harmful for your eyes, resulting in serious damage!

You will need to where a pair of welders glasses to protect your eyes. If you can’t get your hands on these, which many of us can’t, they are selling special paper glasses with a completely dark lense.

To get official glasses, please make sure it says ISO on the inside part of the glasses. I have seen them for sale on line. If you get them, just make sure it has ISO stamped on the inside piece that goes over your ear! After you have the proper glasses, and pray for a sunny day, enjoy!

As for our weather, well…let’s just say we’re in the doldrums of summer. Not the dog days, yet! That may come towards the end of the month.

I’m not calling it boring, either! I don’t ever find the weather boring. It’s just a period of the year, when patterns tend to be on the tranquil side.

This is not all the time! We’ve had major hurricanes hit New England this month, along with catastrophic flooding. Of course, each month has its own historic moments.

So far, this August has been very kind. We’ve escaped the brutal heat, had plenty of rain, and no hurricanes threatening our region up to this point.

How about the rest of the month? Well, after this week, the second half of August is looking somewhat warmer than the first half.

Does this mean Boston may receive another heat wave? I can’t be 100% sure, but odds do favor hitting 90 degrees several more times before the month is through.

So far, we have not hit 90 in Boston this August. This is stark contrast to last August, when we hit 90 a whopping 8 times!

I am also keeping an eye on the tropics. Wow, it seems like getting the tropical activity going in the Atlantic the last several years has been quite the struggle. Of course, this is great news for nearly everyone!

Hurricanes and tropical storms are the deadliest and costliest storms on our planet. But it’s also nature, and we can’t control what happens.

Eventually, our good luck is going to run out. The streak continues of not having a major hurricane strike the U.S. since Wilma of 2005!

With ocean conditions near neutral in the Pacific, it would appear that the this hurricane season may be different than years past.

In fact, NOAA has actually increased their number of named storms and major hurricanes, in the mid season update. This is alarming.

The way I am seeing things, there has already been an increase in storms developing early on. Just today, Hurricane Gert has developed, but will stay out to sea.

However, as we get deeper into the season, I am concerned that some of these storms are going to develop into major hurricanes, and threaten the east coast, including New England!

I am thinking that this is the year when a major hurricane makes landfall somewhere along the east coast. This is just not my opinion, many experts also have similar concerns.

As always,I will be monitoring these storms very carefully as we move deeper into the season. This includes for us here in New England.

Now for your beach and boating forecast. As Hurricane Gert passes southeast of Nantucket, be aware of large swells on southern and southeastern facing beaches and in the ocean south of New England!

Otherwise, expect best beach days to be tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday, then again on Sunday. Cape beaches will be battling fog at times, so patience is needed! Friday may also be okay, if showers stay to our west. More clouds and a period of showers is likely on Saturday, making this day iffy.

Here is your weekly summer forecast. I will rate this week another 6 out of 10. Expect somewhat muggy weather tonight, with lots of clouds around. Low temperatures will be in the 60’s.

Tomorrow should be a generally a dry day. However, I can not rule out some pop up showers and thunderstorms during the morning. With the departing storm offshore, temperatures will be held in the 70’s.

Wednesday and Thursday should feature dry and warm summer weather, with highs mainly in the 80’s. Enjoy!

An approaching storm, will mean more cloudiness on Friday. At this point, the showers and heavier rainfall appears that it will remain to the north and west of Boston.

It’s possible, no rain falls across southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod. It will continue to on the warm side, but no excessive heat is anticipated.

A cold front looks to swing through the region sometime on Saturday. This may trigger a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, but a washout is not anticipated.

If systems move according to plan, the front will sweep off the coast Saturday night, leading to yet another very nice summery day for Sunday.

This is important, as the Falmouth Road Race is held on this day! Good luck to all the runners, including my nieces Elena, Olivia and Nicole!

I’m not sure about the rest of the country, but the long range outlook for next Monday is looking quite promising for us here in New England, to view the partial eclipse!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new tropical outlook. I may also chime in on the new Farmers’ Almanac outlook for this upcoming winter!

I will also have a new vacation forecast for next week. In the meantime, stay calm during the eclipse, it’s only Mother Nature showing off!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

P.S. Don’t forget those glasses!

Farewell, Dick Albert…8/7/17

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! I would say the weather turned out just about as planned, from last weeks forecast. Saturday continued the string of muggy days, with oppressive levels of humidity. Aside from that brief period of showers on Saturday, the weekend was generally on the dry side.

The showers on Saturday ushered in an airmass change which was welcome  across the region! Sunday featured breezy conditions, along with much drier air!

Temperatures still managed to get up to near normal readings, which is in the low 80’s this time of year. However, due to the very dry air, the wind quickly evaporated any heat away from our bodies, making it feel a bit chilly at times!

As for me, I headed up to New Hampshire this weekend. I find it so relaxing sitting on the screened in porch, watching all the Hummingbirds whizzing by me, along with a cool breeze, while writing my blog! I could get very used to this living!

Yes, we are well into August now, and so far, the forecast is generally going according to plan. When I made the summer forecast back in May, I did mention a sudden turn to cooler weather for August.

With that being said, the detailed portion of my forecast appears to be in jeopardy. The summer forecast called for slightly warmer than average temperatures, when in fact, the summer has averaged slightly cooler than normal. I called for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days this summer. So far, we have had 11.

With it being only August 7th today, there’s still time for temperatures to reach 90 again. In fact, computer models are in agreement, that it’s going to turn hot again around here, heading towards the end of the month.

However, I see this as a risky forecast. As I’ve mentioned in previous posts, I love studying trends in weather patterns. The trend lately has been to warm things up too much here in New England, only for things to change at the last minute, with cooler patterns dominating.

So far, this pattern has worked out to our advantage. The intense hot weather to our southwest has been blunted as it tried pushing into New England this summer. At the same time colder than normal weather across Greenland has been trying to push south during the summer.

Of course, jet stream winds would not allow this to happen during the summer around here. The result has been a pleasant equilibrium of  “near average” temperatures so far this summer, here in New England. This clash of the air masses has also led to plenty of rain across most of the region. This type of pattern was well advertised in my summer forecast back in May.

So this warm spell computer models are forecasting towards the end of August, should we bite? I recall the past couple years the pattern was reversed. Computer models kept advertising cold air is coming…it’s coming! However, when push came to shove, the warmth would always win out, delaying or cancelling any prospective cooldowns.

In the short term, the pattern has abruptly changed. The front which crossed the region on Saturday has brought a September like feel to it. I am expecting this pattern to persist for at least the next two weeks. You can expect near, to slightly below average temperatures during this period, along with episodes of rain and showers.

And in fact, an unusual storm for this time of year is heading our way, even as I speak. A strong storm for this time of year, is tracking along the boundary of cool air to our north, and hot air to our south.

This storm is expected to track just south of New England overnight, bringing with it soaking rains, especially from the Mass Pike on south. I find it unusual, because this is the type of low pressure one would see  during the winter time, bringing heavy snows to the north of the center.

Typically, this type of storm would track some 500 miles further to our north, this time of year. Quite unusual, indeed!

At this point, I’m not ready to cancel summer, just yet. Though I do feel August will end up slightly below normal in temperatures, I do believe there is a good chance for a burst of warm weather sometime in the second half of the month.

Beyond that, I’m not too sure what’s going to happen this fall. As I have mentioned many times, the weather patterns are volatile, and are in a state of flux.

There are many global factors that will be influencing our weather over the next several months. Both Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperatures are changing.

What once looked like a central based weak El Niño developing in the Pacific this winter, is now tipping more towards a weak La Niña. This could have major implications on our patterns coming up for this winter.

Though La Nina’s can sometimes bring heavy snow to the Boston area, odds favor less than average snow, with warmer than normal temperatures. Last winter was a La Niña, which actually brought above average snow to most of New England, especially across ski country!

As we move deeper into the fall, I will be discussing about these factors in greater detail. We must enjoy the remaining time we have with summer, before it’s too late!

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to talk about a sad day, that occurred this past Friday. Longtime Channel 5 meteorologist Dick Albert, or “Dickie” as known by many, sadly passed away.

I was touched by all the folks who paid tribute to Dick, by posting condolences and fond memories on social media throughout the weekend. Longtime friends Harvey Leonard, and Mark Rosenthal both posted touching messages to the beloved meteorologist.

I did not know Dick personally, but after watching him on television for decades, you felt like you got to know him.

This was especially true because of Dick’s personality. Dick Albert made watching the weather fun! Who could forget his acronyms, TTTC, too tough to call, BICO, baby it’s cold outside, or the weather looks “Just Ducky!”

Among other things, Dick challenged viewers with his entertaining quizzes. Who could forget when he answered the questions…he would start out with a low voice, then loudly trumped the answer…the answer is TRUE!

I could go on and on about Dick Albert. His passion for the weather certainly was contagious to other weather enthusiast such as myself. He loved the weather, but more importantly, he was a good man, who was devoted to his family, more than anything else.

There was the story that I read on line of a woman who was sick with cancer in the hospital, who’s one wish was to meet Dick Albert. From what I read, Dick took the time out of his day to visit this woman. This alone will tell you all you need to know about a persons character.

His one regret was that he missed the Great Blizzard of ’78 here in Boston. He began his career here in Boston just a few months after the storm hit!

Dick once said about his career, “it’s not only my vocation, but my avocation.” Few words that have such a big impact. My condolences go out to Dick’s family, his friends, and the entire meteorological community.

Now for your beach and boating forecast. Best beach days this week looks to be Wednesday through Friday. We may also salvage part of tomorrow, if the storm pulls offshore quick enough. Next weekend looks iffy at this point.

If you have plans to be on a boat later today and  overnight, I would strongly reconsider. An unusual strong storm is going to bring strong winds, torrential rains, and possibly thunderstorms off the coast tonight….especially in southern areas. Conditions will be improving during the day tomorrow, and continuing through Friday.

Now for your weekly vacation and outdoor summer forecast. I will rate  this week a 6 out of 10. Watch for clouds to rapidly increase and thicken for the rest of today. It will be comfortable out, with temperatures mainly in the 70’s.

Later today, some rain showers may begin moving into the area, as winds begin to back in off the ocean. Later this evening, rain is going to move into the area in earnest. As mentioned above, the heaviest rain looks to fall from Boston points south towards the Cape.

With the center passing south of New England, winds will back in from the northeast, and become gusty at times. Should the most intense dynamics pass close to Boston, overnight thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. At this point, I am expecting between 1 and 2″ of rain to fall in a fairly short period of time from Boston points south.

With the stormy conditions overnight, we will not see the full “Sturgeon” moon tonight. I hope you got to see it last night with the clear skies.

Tuesday should feature improving weather. Early showers and clouds should give way to brightening skies during the afternoon. As the sun comes out, temperatures should bump up into the lower 70’s.

Tuesday night should be fair and cool, with lows mainly in the 50’s in rural areas, and 60’s in the cities.

Wednseday through Friday should feature fine summer weather, with mainly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Humidity levels should also be in check, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.

As for temperatures, we should manage to get into the low to mid 80’s. Later Friday, it may become more humid,  along with a chance of a thunderstorm, as a front approaches.

As for this weekend, I am expecting some rain to fall at some point. Right now, odds favor sometime on Saturday, with Sunday being the better of the two weekend days. It will continue to be on the warm and on the humid side, with highs once again in the 80’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I promise to write a segment on the tropics, as things seem to be picking up. I will also have your new beach and vacation forecast. In the meantime, remember life is short, try and enjoy all the good things we have in our life, instead all the things we want.

Thanks for reading!

Pete