Winter Forecast: Winter’s Return! 11/24/25
Hello, friends! It certainly has been a while! I hope everyone is doing well! I had good intentions to post sometime in October, but time prevented me from doing so! Whatever spare time I have, I’m following the patterns & potential storms closely as we head into the winter season! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Saturday started off damp with a fairly cold rain. Skies partially cleared in the afternoon with the late November sun casting dark shadows on the departing storm clouds. Temperatures plummeted to winter levels Saturday night as clouds quickly increased ahead of our next system. Sunday began with some partial sun, but clouds quickly increased and thickened during the late morning. As I was getting some errands done, I noticed some bursts of light snow showers passing by! Did anyone else see any snow flurries yesterday? I received some reports of some small accumulation across the seacoast region of Southern New Hampshire! This is not uncommon during November. I actually was expecting a small accumulation across the Boston area sometime during this month, but that did not come to fruition.
However, November has turned out being a colder than average month up to this point in Boston. With only six days left to the month, I only foresee one day which will feature above normal temperatures. This will ensure Boston temperatures will be below normal this November. With the colder temperatures, many ski resorts have been able to open two weeks earlier than expected. In addition, some resorts in Vermont have received an unusual amount of natural snow this month. If you believe the reports, Jay Peak in northern Vermont has received a whopping 93″ of snow so far this month! This has broken a record for so much snow so early in the season! Judging by the photos I have seen, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t believe the figure given.
Overall, autumn has turned out quite seasonal. September and October were slightly warmer than normal. However, when you factor in November’s temperatures, it should bring the mean to right around average. This is quite a change compared to the blow torch autumn’s we have seen in recent years. Call me a skeptic, but it feels as if temperatures are trending slightly cooler over the past couple of years anyway. Yes, frosts were slow to arrive this fall, especially across the interior. Boston’s Logan Airport did not observe their first freeze (temperature at 32 degrees) until November 19th. This is nearly two weeks later than normal. Meanwhile, I recorded a freeze where I reside in West Roxbury way back on October 28th. There was a big discrepancy in temperatures this autumn from locations right along the ocean to areas just inland from the coast. This may play a role in how much snow people see this upcoming winter.
I didn’t have a chance to update my fall foliage reports this season. However, I am pleased to report the season definitely ended with a flourish in and around the Parkway area! Many trees turned deep red and golden yellow colors before finally relinquishing their leaves only within the past couple of weeks! The fall foliage season is now over, as we await the arrival of winter!
Indeed, it’s been quite a journey writing a blog about our climate and weather the past 15 years! Looking through some of my old posts, you would believe we lived somewhere in Alaska! The first five years aside from one year was action packed, with storms and rumors of storms! From blizzards to ice storms, flash freezes to heat waves, we saw it all! Then came the historic winter of 2014-15, when Boston received 110.6″ of snow all within 6 weeks! Looking back, I can honestly say the climate “shifted” after that winter. Yes, there was a decent winter in 2017-18, then again 2021-22, but the rest have featured all below average seasonal snowfall here in Boston, most by a wide margin!
Does this mean winters of the past is just that, of the past? Will we ever see major Nor’easters and blizzards in our lifetime again? The answer to these questions is no and yes! The general public has a short memory when it comes to past weather events. Yes, some can recall the Blizzard of ’78, but even that is distorted to some degree when I chat with folks. Do I correct them? No, it’s better I just let them recall their own memories with how they believed it happened. Why try and correct them? It was nearly 50 years ago! That’s why I’m here to keep the facts in line! I have done the research and have a photographic memory of past weather events!
Last winter was an improvement! Though still falling short of seasonal average, we managed to experience a colder than normal winter for once, and the snow that did fall, stuck around for a while for once. There was nothing major last year. The largest snowfall the city observed was 5.5″ sometime in January. Boston did experience a rare white Christmas last year from a storm that seemingly felt and seen in the city a few days before Christmas. Regardless of whether your town had snow or not, temperatures were cold throughout the holiday season, which was a surprising change, compared to years past.
So last winter was an improvement. Can we expect this winter to be colder & snowier than last winter? Well, I do believe our winters go in cycles. At first glance, it may look random. But upon further inspection, you can clearly see snowy winters come in groups, or cycles as we say. They also seem to build up to a peak, rather than going from no snow to huge winter. Of course, there has been exceptions. Sometimes, we receive a very low snow year in a group of snowy winters. Mother Nature knows the numbers, and she’s only correcting to the mean. All winters can’t be exceptionally snowy, nor can all be snowless. This is why we see fluctuations to snow seasons.
But this doesn’t answer the question what we can expect for this winter, as this is what everyone wants to know! This season has been exceptionally tricky to predict! I’m really not sure why this is the case in recent years. It seemed easier 10 years ago! It could be that global weather patterns are in a constant state of flux. Longtime Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal once called these patterns “chaos” or not able to come up with a clear solution. I mentioned in my weather forum I belong to that this fall has been full of “conflicting signals”. What this means is that I have seen many good signals for a snowy winter this year in Boston, but at the same time I have also observed just as many negative signals.
Some of the positive signals have been more rainfall this autumn, especially in September and October. You need rainy patterns to establish themselves during the autumn season to set a trend for the winter. We have seen more high latitude blocking this autumn compared to recent years. La Nina appeared feeble at best, which is good a sign. This could a biproduct of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) being in an easterly or negative phase. Studies have shown when the QBO is in a negative phase, we tend to see more high latitude blocking. The QBO is a teleconnection that changes wind direction in the equatorial region from westerly to easterly in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This season the QBO is strongly negative. Another positive signal we all observed this fall was the emergence of a what has been called in recent years, the “warm blob” in the Gulf of Alaska. This patch of unusually warmer water in the North Pacific Ocean has been linked to colder & snowier winters here along the east coast. Another positive link is something called the EPO, or Eastern Pacific Oscillation. The EPO is when there’s a ridge of high pressure over Alaska, and a trough of low-pressure east of Hawaii. When this is negative, it tends to keep the pattern progressive, and troughs reaching the east coast.
Yet another positive signal has been temperature profile in Boston this November. As I mentioned earlier, it looks like Boston is going to experience a colder than normal November, the first one in three years. Studies have shown colder than normal Novembers have been linked to snowier winters in Boston. However, I was chatting with my weather friend Frank earlier today on X (Twitter) and mentioned to him this analog no longer holds as much weight as it used to a few years ago. Case in point, the last two Novembers that featured below average temperatures in Boston revealed well below average snowfall in Boston the following winter. Not so reliable! One more among others, was that La Nina appeared feeble at best, and was not going to be much of a player. This was a good sign.
These all seemed like sold signals heading into the fall. However, as we moved deeper into autumn, things began to change. La Nina began to slowly strengthen and has become more established. This is not a great sign. La Nina is the counterpart to El Nino and is classified as colder than normal water in the Southern Pacific Ocean. This disrupts the jet stream across the U.S. and is known for colder and snowier winters in the northwest part of our country, and warmer and drier winters across the southeast, sometimes right up the Atlantic seaboard including here in Boston. As autumn progressed, the warm blob in the Gulf of Alaska disappeared, and has been replaced with colder ocean temperatures.
Another neutral signal was the SSC, or Siberian Snow Cover. Dr. Judah Cohen is an atmospheric scientist who closely follows how much snow falls in Siberia during October, and its relation to the polar vortex, and how much snow falls along the east coast the following winter. SSC started off on record pace, but slowly waned through the month, finishing up right about average. Not too snowy, but not the worst either. Studies have been shown a strong SSC in October is linked to a weaker polar vortex the following winter. The weaker the vortex is, the more intense our winters can be across the U.S. There was some excitement earlier this month with computer models predicting a near collapse of the polar vortex, which would have been only the second time on record this had occurred. Recent computer model data has backed off best case scenario for cold & snow but haven’t completely ruled anything out just yet either. I’m eager to see what Judah has to say in his weekly blog he publishes every Monday evening during the winter season. Recent computer model runs have also diminished high latitude blocking as we begin December, but it’s early, and does not have much bearing on the entire winter.
One last counter signal to a snowy winter is the sun! We are currently in a high solar cycle! Come to think about it, this may be the biggest negative signal of them all. Did anyone see the Northern Lights in the Boston are on November 11th? By the photos posted on social media, it looked like many! I for one saw them for the first time in my life right from my front door! I was intrigued, so I hopped in my vehicle and took a drive up to Millennium Park in West Roxbury and was able to see a panoramic view of the northern skyline. You could see them with the naked eye, but when you used your phone, wow! The colors were amazing, from neon green to bright fuchsia, and I even saw blue without the phone! Well, the Northern Lights were caused from a massive CME, or Coronal Mass Ejection that was aimed directly to earth. I don’t have time to explain exactly how the Northern Lights happen, but when we are in a high solar cycle as we are, research has shown we tend to receive less snowfall here in Boston.
Well, glad I got that off my chest! In reality folks, it’s all how one interprets all this data. It’s next to impossible to get the entire winter correct based off what’s occurring now! Things can and will change leading up to the winter solstice. For this reason, I have instituted a policy of updating my winter forecast one final time around the winter solstice, just in case I see any dramatic changes, which is entirely possible based off what we’re dealing with here. Putting this all together, this is my best educational guess on how I see this winter playing out here in Boston and New England this year.
For this winter, I’m expecting some dramatic temperature swings, but a bit more snow in Boston than in recent years. Overall, I’m expecting a winter closer to seasonal snowfall, with near average temperatures when all is said and done. Keeping in mind, the extremes make the averages. This includes some warm spells, especially here in southern New England. Most notable the first half of winter. Average snowfall in Boston ranges between 45 and 50 inches. For this winter, I’m expecting between 40 and 50″ in Boston proper. More active than last year, with the possibility of couple decent sized Nor’easters. With it being a La Nina year, we wouldn’t expect many Nor’easters, but more open wave, or warm advection events. This means cold air in place while warmer air overrides the colder air producing snow. This is certainly a bump up from last year’s 28″ recorded at Logan Airport. However, it still may fall short of the seasonal norm of 47″ at Logan Airport. This looks like a winter that will push people’s patience, but not enough to make them snap. If we were entering a weak El Nino season, I would probably be predicting double of what I’m calling for. Max range on the scale would be 65″, lowest would be 25″.
Folks’ south of Boston towards Cape Cod is a bit of a wildcard. If cold air presses while storms cut underneath New England, a snowy winter is in the cards. However, if the southeast ridge presses too much, it may mean a lot of snow to rain scenarios, or mixed events. If storms suppress, you may receive more snow than Boston some storms. My call at this moment is to lean on a slightly colder scenario this winter. This means expect a good bit of snow, I would say 30 to 40″. Not a blockbuster, but more than recent winters. People on the Cape can also expect more snow this winter than recent years. I’m not expecting any blizzards, but a general 20 to 30″ of snow is quite possible in my opinion.
As one would expect, snow amounts increase the further north & west one lives from the coastal plain and especially Rt 128 and I95. Therefore, you can expect between 50 and 60″ of snowfall between Rt 128 and I495 which is again close to seasonal values. Max range on the scale would be 75″, lowest would be 35″. For my friends and family along the seacoast region of New Hampshire you can expect similar amounts this winter as these locations in Massachusetts. Lesser near the ocean, more 10 miles inland away from the coast.
Folks who live north & west of I495 is where I’m expecting above average amounts of snowfall this winter. Worcester County, Monadnock region, Berkshires should all above normal snowfall with many snow events. This should extend up through interior New Hampshire right up along the Maine coaster to the Greater Portland area. I’m expecting between 60 and 80″ of snow this winter in this region.
The real bonanza in my opinion is going to be northern New England and especially the ski resorts of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine where most resorts are going to cash in with a big winter! Persistent cold air combining with an active northern jet stream is going to bring copious amounts of snowfall! Jay Peak in Vermont has already picked up nearly a third of its annual snowfall! If there’s any year to plan for a winter ski vacation getaway, this is it! Next year promises an El Nino which typically does not deliver as much snow in this region.
It’s a long winter. Most winters get going after the winter solstice around Boston. I’m expecting a stronger second half to winter than the first half. This means February and March, rather than December and January. I’ll have an update around the winter solstice.
Now for your weekly outdoor late autumn Thanksgiving forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.
Expect mainly clear and chilly weather overnight, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Warmest is urban and coastal regions.
Watch for increasing clouds and slightly milder temperatures for your Tuesday, with highs possibly reaching the low 50’s. There may be some scattered rain showers developing later in the afternoon.
Look for areas of rain to traverse the region tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be warming up with lows in the 40’s tomorrow night but possibly skyrocketing towards 60 on Wednesday! There could be additional shower later Wednesday and Wednesday evening ahead of an approaching cold front, but most of the day should be mainly rain-free. Overall, not a bad travel day, but expect some delays nonetheless due to traffic.
A strong cold front will sweep off the eastern seaboard early Thanksgiving Day. This means three things. First, skies will abruptly clear. Two, temperatures will be slowly falling throughout the day. Three, it’s going to become windy! If your travels take you out to upstate N.Y. Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester area, be prepared for lake affect snow squalls with white out conditions possible and hazardous driving conditions. In fact, there is a winter storm watch up for many counties in this part of New York, which will be converted to warnings soon.
For the rest of us, Thanksgiving Day should feature mainly sunny skies with some passing clouds, but as mentioned above it will be windy and cooler! Temperatures will start out in the 40’s but slowly fall into the upper 30’s by evening.
Black Friday will feature more clouds and the chance of some flurries around the region. It will be windy & cold with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30’s. Clear and very cold weather expected Friday night with lows in the teens and 20’s regionwide.
Saturday will feature less wind and dry conditions, as temperatures slowly warm into the 30’s perhaps lower 40’s south.
Sunday watch for increasing clouds as the next system approaches the regions. Showers may arrive from west to east Sunday evening and continue through the night, though no major storm is expected at this time. High temperatures will mainly be in the 30’s north and 40’s south.
Well, that’s about it for now friends! I hope you enjoyed the preliminary winter forecast! As I mentioned earlier, I will have a brief updated version around the winter solstice. As always, if any severe weather or significant winter storm threatens our region, I will be sure to keep everyone updated. In the meantime, there’s much to be thankful for this season. For one, I’m thankful for my business and my employees!
~Wishing all my family & friends a Happy & Healthy Thanksgiving Holiday! ~
Thanks for reading!
Pete
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