Winter 2023-24: Slow Start…Strong Finish! 11/20/23
Hello! Happy Thanksgiving week, to all! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a classic November-like weekend weather-wise across much of New England. Saturday started off with rain and mild temperatures. As the coastal storm departed, winds shifted in the afternoon, bringing cooler and drier weather into the region. Sunday featured a good amount of sun, but was a good 10 degrees cooler than Saturday. I saw reports of snow showers in the White Mountain region of New Hampshire, but otherwise it was mainly a dry day. While driving home from New Hampshire last evening, I myself ran into some wet snow showers in Burlington/Lexington region of Massachusetts off Rt 128! Today is bright but chilly! Latest temperature in Boston has yet to reach 40 degrees.
At the very least, I want to post the first installment of my winter forecast. With so many conflicting signals, I will have to post a second final update at or around the winter solstice, as I have done in previous years. I will also elaborate more on the the forecast in the time leading up the the second update as more time permits. I have mentioned this in previous posts, but it seems the more we have answers in regards to long range forecasting, the faster Mother Nature changes the questions. Honestly, I have to laugh. There are brilliants minds working on these long range forecast ranging from NOAA, atmospheric scientists, local TV meteorologists, up & coming very knowledgeable amateur meteorologists, Farmers’ Almanac, squirrels, woolly bear caterpillars and more! Yet, the chances of nailing a seasonal forecast is low. At best, it’s still an educated guess!
I have been posting my seasonal forecast for 13 years now, and making one for friends and family a long time before that! I can tell you by personal experience that these forecasts have become more challenging over the years. Perhaps it’s outdated computer models? Climate change? Too many computer models? Even the experts agree these forecasts have become almost impossible to predict. Yet, here we are again, taking our best shot at predicting the future! It’s a lot of work, but I must admit…I love the challenge and the excitement!
Let’s get into the details! As I have mentioned in previous posts, we are solidly in El Nino this winter. What is El Nino? El Nino is a weather phenomenon which occurs every 3 to 5 years in the southern Pacific Ocean off South America. It is the opposite of La Nina, which is colder than normal water off the South American coast. In general terms, El Nino is warmer than normal ocean off the South American coast extending westward into the southern Pacific Ocean. It all has to do with trade winds. When winds are weak, warm water begins to pool across the eastern Pacific Ocean. If trade winds remain weak, the warm water grows, and begins spreading westward across the Pacific Ocean. If El Nino become established, it can alter global weather patterns, but especially across North America and Canada.
In general, La Nina winters are cold & stormy in the northwestern part of the country, including Alaska, and warm & dry across the southeastern part of the country, sometimes including all the way up to Boston as it did last winter. El Nino is the opposite of La Nina, with warm & dry conditions northwest part of the country, and cold and stormy in the southeast, sometimes inlcuding Boston depending upon a variety of weather factors.
Overall, some of Boston’s biggest winters have occurred during El Nino’s. With that being said, El Nino’s come in various strengths and locations. The strength and location can determine what type of winter Boston is going to experience. There are many other factors which contribute to the patterns for the upcoming winter, but El Nino is the driver of the bus. In general terms, a weaker El Nino, that is centered more towards the middle of the Pacific Ocean means a snowier and colder winter for Boston. When it’s strong (very warm water) east based, with warm water piled up along the South American coast, we typically see mild winters with below, to much below average snow.
For this El Nino, it’s currently a strong El Nino, and recent data shows it has become even a bit stronger. Out of 10 El Nino’s with this strength, 8 have yielded below average snow in Boston. Two were slightly above. Currently, there’s great debate in the weather community about El Nino’s strength and position. Half of the people feel El Nino is weak to at most moderate strength and is migrating towards the central Pacific. While the other half believe it’s very strong and is east based.
After studying ocean temperatures, it does indeed appear the El Nino is migrating towards the central Pacific. However, it also appears its maintaining its strength as it does so. This is leading to a nearly full basin wide type El Nino, with the warmest water centered more towards the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
Yet, I continue to be very skeptical with this years El Nino. The last strong El Nino was back in 2015-16 winter. That turned into a very strong El Nino, and flooded the country with absurdly record warm temperatures for November and December. Do you remember the 70 degree weather New England experienced on Christmas Day 2015??? Many kids were playing outside with short sleeves enjoying the incredibly warm weather! Boston actually made a very respectable comeback that winter, finishing up with 36″ of snow with late season snows!
Aside from the El Nino, there are many conflicting signals that may or may not play a role in our upcoming winter. For this year, ocean temperatures in the Pacific are warmer than normal in areas where they should be cooler. At the same time, there are patchy areas of cold water in areas which make it conducive for east coast cold and snow.
The QBO (Quasi-Biannual Oscillation) is in easterly phase. This is a band of winds that travel high above the equator. These winds oscillate every 14 months from easterly to westerly. Last year they were westerly. This year they are easterly. When the QBO is easterly, research shows we see more high latitude blocking, a weaker polar vortex and stronger penetration of cold air along towards the east coast. In my opinion, this is the biggest wildcard this winter. How this interacts with the strong El Nino could make for a fascinating show.
I focus a lot of attention to November temperature & precipitation patterns to help me determine what kind of winter we might see here in New England, specifically Boston. If you like a lot of snow, here’s some encouraging signs.
First: An abrupt change to below average temperatures right before Halloween. This was coming off the 4th warmest October’s on record. This cooler than average regime has continued into November, and looks to continue through the remainder of the month. A near average freeze at Logan airport on November 12th.
Second: Some snow showing up in New England. We haven’t seen much along the coast, but the interior and mountains have already experienced a few snowfalls, with more coming over the next 10 days. It should be only a matter of time before the snow makes it to the coastal plain.
Third: A storm track that seems to be establishing along the east coast. There haven’t been many storms, but the ones that have occurred, have been more along the coast rather than “inside runners” that track up the St. Lawrence River Valley. These inside runners places southern New England in the warm sector of storms, mainly bringing rain and mild temperatures to our region. I believe last year there were at least a dozen inside runner storms possibly more.
Fourth: Talk of a Super El Nino may be overzealous. So far, this El Nino is not acting like a typical El Nino. Hurricane development has been robust in the Atlantic this past summer, which is contrary to what usually occurs. Precipitation patterns have been drier across much of the country, when it should be wetter. Temperatures have been below average across New England and Mid Atlantic region this November.
However, there are some anti-log snow signals as well. The incredibly wet pattern we experienced over the summer has seemingly vanished here in November. November is the month when winter precipitation values should be increasing not decreasing. So far, November is running well below average precipitation across much of the region. Has the atmosphere rained itself out over the summer? Computer models continue to predict above normal precipitation this winter along the east coast, but they have been wrong before, so we never know for sure until it happens. There are signs that the polar vortex wants to strengthen heading into December. If this happens, it could mean another extended period of warm temperatures for our first month of winter. This does fall in line with a strong El Nino.
Dr. Judah Cohen is an atmospheric scientist who studies the relationship between Siberian snowfall during the month of October, and the following winter along the east coast. His research claims the heavier the snowfall is during October, that it *may* translate into above normal snowfall along the east coast. What were this years results? According to his graph, Siberian snowfall was well below average this October. However, there was a late month surge that went above average heading into November. I’m not sure what this could mean? I do find it fascinating, and have followed his research for many years. There have been more years than not that has shown a correlation. You may ask, what were the numbers like in October 2014? It was a record breaking snowfall that October in Siberia. If you recall, Boston received it’s snowiest winter on record the following winter! Amazing!
Many weather enthusiasts on Twitter (now known as X) continue to post computer projections of weather patterns that could possibly feature severe winter weather conditions in the coming weeks, that simply don’t exist yet. While entertaining, these computer model runs are not reliable. Is it possible, yes, anything is possible. However, in many cases, we need to look at what is climatologically likely for our area. While computer models were projecting a possible blizzard around Thanksgiving time, it’s simply too early for this to happen around here, and may be a once in a hundred year or more event. Of course, computer models adjusted quickly, and the fantasy storm was gone the next run. Same is true for seasonal projections. While the accuracy level may be strong to start, the skill level diminishes the deeper into the season it goes. It’s also important to understand when NOAA issues a warmer than normal winter on the way, they’re taking the average of all three winter months and displaying the mean. This does not take into account a two week period of severe winter weather that sometimes occurs in a warm winter. Overall, it’s how people interpret these forecasts. Nobody wants to be wrong these days. So they smooth it out with probabilities. Even the Old Farmers’ Almanac does it!
So, trying to assemble all of this together, what are my first thoughts for the upcoming 2023-24 winter? In my opinion, there are too many conflicting signals to announce a severe winter is imminent for us here in New England this winter. With that being said, I’m expecting a tougher go of it compared to the last several, especially last year. It’s going to snow more this winter. People may perceive it as a tough winter, when only average amounts fell. Our winters go in cycles, and I still believe we are in a low impact cycle compared to some of the big winters we observed 8 or 9 years ago. We had a similar “dry” cycle back in the 1980’s, when Boston only observed two above normal winters out of 14! Wow!
Despite all of that, I believe there’s enough evidence to make this winter at the very least more exciting. Most computer models are projecting above normal precipitation along the east coast. The problem is, these same computer models are also predicting above normal temperatures for much of New England this winter. In these type of El Nino’s, the Mid Atlantic region typically receives more snow relative to average than locations in New England. Some cities down there have not experienced a winter storm since the January of 2016 blizzard. That year was a very strong El Nino.
In typical El Nino fashion, I believe we’re going to get off to a slow start with very little snow through the end of the year. Looking at the latest trends, it does indeed appear that December will once again feature above normal temperatures this year. Our best chance for any snow in December would be the first week or the very end of the month. I hope we don’t see another “torch-mas” this year! Those are awful! However, given the track record of previous El Nino’s of this magnitude, this indeed could be the case!
One may think another repeat of last years non-winter is on the way. Based on my projections, I don’t believe this will be the case this year. As we enter the new year, changing patterns could set us up for a colder and stormier second half to winter. Anytime after mid January through mid March, I’m expecting a volatile mixture of an active sub tropical jet stream and an energetic polar jet stream to deliver stormy and colder weather patterns to the east coast from the Carolina’s up through southern New England. Where these tow streams phase, will likely see the jackpot for snow this winter. In typical stronger El Ninos, the worst of the snow is normally focused in the Mid Atlantic region…shades of 2009-10? I’m actually more confident of above average snow this year in places like Washington D.C. Philadelphia, New Jersey and perhaps New York City than Boston. Once it starts snowing…we’ll know where the bulls-eye is going to be! Snow breeds snow in big winters. As they say, it snows where it wants to snow!
In an El Nino. the east coast is more susceptible to experience a blizzard. Some of our largest blizzards occurred during El Ninos. I’m fairly confident the Mid Atlantic region is going to see a blockbuster blizzard later this winter. The question remains whether a major storm or two can track close enough to Boston to include us in the heavy snowfall. This is going to be an issue here in Boston. El Nino’s favor a southern storm track, with storms tracking more east northeasterly, rather than north northeast up the coast passing east of New England then tracking into the Canadian Maritimes. For a blizzard to occur in Boston, I would like to see a weaker El Nino than this one. I’m not saying no, but odds father south of Boston rather than north this winter.
Placing all this together, here’s my best estimate for snowfall projections around the region. Boston averages 49″ of snow in an average winter. Starting in Boston I’m estimating between 40 to 50″ of snow this winter, so very close to an average winter is anticipated. Worcester 55 to 65″. Providence, R.I. 30 to 40″. Manchester, N.H. 45 to 55″, Portsmouth N.H. region, 50 to 60″, Portland, Maine 50 to 60″. Cape Cod should see between 20 and 30″. Keep in mind, El Nino favors heaviest snows in coastal regions along and east of the I95 corridor, where La Nina favors west of I95 corridor. Because El Nino favors coastal regions, ski resorts up in northern & western New England may not do as well as last season. If the storms start taking the southern route, northern New England may be on the outside looking in. This is not set in stone, I will explain some of the wildcards in my next segment.
What could go wrong? Plenty! This is why I will update this forecast around the winter solstice in case anything changes. Some wildcards to consider. If the El Nino continues to strengthen and remains robust and more east based, a milder and less snowy solution will verify. This is true, especially if the polar vortex remains strong and we get no high latitude blocking. If this happens, we can all deduct between 20 to 30″ of snow of the current projections. This would make for a rather bland, mild winter.
Conversely, if the El Nino does indeed migrate becoming more central based in the Pacific, and does not not strengthen further, I believe we will reach the projected numbers. However, if the polar vortex weakens this winter, and we have high latitude blocking with a strong sub-tropical jet stream undercutting across the country then up the east coast, well then, mid January through mid March could put on quite a show. If the QBO kicks in, and promotes high latitude blocking, someone along the east coast is going to get a crippling blizzard or two. If this happens, we can all add 20 to 30″ to the initial projections. That would make for quite a winter!
I wish I could be more definitive with these snowfall projections. I figured I can start here, and make any needed adjustments in my final call around the winter solstice. I should have much more information by then to determine which way the winter will be heading. Honestly, there are many more players on thee field this winter forecast than other years. It’s quite a volatile scenario with big bust potential either way.
Now for your Thanksgiving holiday week forecast! I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Not bad at all!
For the rest of your Monday night expect clear and cold temperatures. Lows will be in the teens and 20’s region wide.
Tuesday will feature early morning sun, followed by increasing afternoon clouds. Towards lat afternoon, the sky will have the appearance as if it wants to snow. It will be slightly less cold tomorrow, with highs between 42 and 45 degrees.
An approaching storm will be arriving late tomorrow night across New England. As the precipitation arrives in western New England, across the interior and up north, there will be a brief bust of snow. This snow may accumulate an inch or two across the high terrain of Worcester County, maybe a bit more in the Berkshires. As you move into interior southern New Hampshire, up to 2 to 3″ may fall, especially across higher terrain locations. Further up north across the intrior of New Hampshire and Maine, a general snowfall will occur into Wednesday morning, north of Concord, N.H. into the White Mountains and western and northern Maine, where 3 to 6″ may fall. This is great news for ski resorts who plan to open up for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend! Any snow within 20 miles of the coast of New Hampshire and Maine will quickly change to rain and be washed away by Wednesday morning.
For the rest of us, expect heavy rainfall and gusty southeasterly winds Wednesday morning, which may cause travel delays due to urban ponding and poor visibility. The rain should diminish by midday or early afternoon at the latest, and be totally done by the evening commute. There may even be some breaks of sunshine before the sun sets Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the mild side, as the storm passes nearby to Boston. Highs may reach the lower 50’s during the morning hours, then begin to slowly drop as winds shift towards the northwest later.
If your traveling out and about Wednesday evening, expect fair but colder weather. A gusty wind will give a bit of a bite to the air. Temperatures will drop into the 30’s and 30’s region-wide.
Thanksgiving Day looks to be sunny and seasonable, perhaps slightly cooler than normal, with highs generally in the low to mid 40’s. There may be a gusty wind early in the day. If your planning on attending any High School football games, I would bundle up!
Dry and fair weather is anticipated now for the rest of the holiday weekend through Sunday. There may be increasing clouds on Sunday as our next storm system approaches for Monday. At this moment, this storm looks to be too warm to bring any snow along the coast. But it is seven days out and this could change. As this storm tracks up the coast, computer models rapidly intensify it, bringing another round of snow to northern New Hampshire and western Maine mountains. I will closely monitor it during the week. Thereafter, the active pattern looks to continue with another storm possible towards the end of next week, with possibly an arctic blast to open up December?
Well, that’s about it for now! I hope everyone enjoyed reading my report! My next blog is scheduled on December 4th. However, if any significant storm threatens, I will update everyone as warranted. If there is no significant weather imminent, I may delay the post further, time permitting. In my next post, I will continue to discuss my winter forecast, and tweak it as necessary. I will also have your first ski and snow board forecast, as well as your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. In the meantime, what’s the saying? It’s not how you start the race, it’s how you finish! This is what I’m expecting for this winter!
~Happy Thanksgiving to all my friends & family!~
Thanks for reading,
Pete
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