Hot Enough For Ya? 8/6/18

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! It was a split decision weather wise, with a line of severe storms moving through on Saturday. Yesterday was a great beach day, with nearly a 100% sunshine, and very warm temperatures well up into the 80’s.

Getting back to Saturday for a moment. This was day two of a rather wild set of weather events that actually began on Friday. First on Friday, the air was heavy with humidity, it only needed a slight trigger mechanism to ignite storms.

Sure enough , a disturbance moving through the upper atmosphere provided just enough lift to rapidly ignite thunderstorms from the Boston area points north. The most severe weather occurred up in New Hampshire, where there were many reports of structural damage which may of been the result of small tornadoes.

Perhaps you saw the picture I posted on my Facebook page of the amazing shelf cloud my brother in law Michael took up at his home near Portsmouth, New Hampshire Friday evening. It was quite the photo that caught the attention of many professional meteorologists on Twitter!

The action shifted south on Saturday. A cool front was pushing through New England. Early morning sun only helped to destabilize the air, leading to a line of severe storms.

These storms actually spawned a tornado in southern Worcester County, with a EF1 tornado ripping through the town of Webster. This tornado had estimated winds of up to 100 mph, which resulted in some serious damage. The tornado dissipated as it tracked towards the northeast.

As the front sagged towards the Cape, a small storm developed, and actually enhanced the rainfall across the Cape. The end result was a deluge of rain with many towns picking up close to 4″ of rain in only a few hours time! This was a longtime coming, as much of southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape has been void of rainfall for the better part of the summer.

I know it’s a corny old cliche, but really…hot enough for ya? I guess that depends who you ask! For some, no, they would prefer this kind of weather everyday for the whole summer! For others, they will live with the heat, especially when they think back to the persistent cold of last winter & spring. While still others, could do without this heat. This is the beauty of living here in New England! During the course of any given season, Mother Nature finds a way to satisfy most everyone. Typically, not one pattern lasts too long. If you don’t like a particular pattern, it typically changes within a week or two!

Now, getting to the matter at hand. I’m afraid my summer forecast is in serious jeopardy of verifying. I will say this, if it was going to be wrong in any direction, I’m glad it’s leaning towards the warm side! The initial call for this summer way back in May was for a overall cooler summer than years past. I wasn’t calling for a cool summer per say, but I did not anticipate that it was going to get this hot, either! I initially called for around ten 90 degree days this summer here in Boston, then expanded it to 10 to 14 to account for a possible hot start to August. Average is 14. Well, here we are August 6th today, and we are on to our 13th day, tomorrow will be 14, Wednesday will be 15, and possibly even 2 more on Thursday and Friday. Wow.

Not to make any excuses, but I always said August was the wildcard month. I had a good idea on June and July forecast. I knew July was going to be a hot month, and that did not disappoint, with Boston registering its 8th hottest July on record. But the outlook became murky as I looked towards August. Some computer models were calling for a sudden change to cool. With the oncoming El Nino, I took the bait, and decided to cut the intense heat off at the end of July. Oh, the cool came, but it was most certainly directed towards the upper mid west and Tennessee Valley, rather than towards New England. Our weather is coming from a different direction, which I will explain shortly.

I was reading a post from WeatherBell Analytics expert long range meteorologist Joe Bastardi yesterday, and he brought up some excellent points in regards to the persistent heat. In what can only be described as a bizarre summer pattern, not only here in New England, but pretty much across the entire globe. Some day I will be able to show you pictures, but if you saw the temperature profile from across the world, you would see what I mean.

Some may be hearing all of the extreme hot temperatures being recorded across the world. While this is true in parts of Europe, California, Texas, and even here in New England, there are other parts of the world recording equally cold temperatures such as the upper mid west, South America, eastern Canada and Greenland. Unusual cold and rain has even visited the typically parched region of Greece, after being ravaged by wildfire. This is highly unusual for this part of the world, at this time of the year.

So what did Bastardi have to say about this? Well, nobody truly knows all of the answers, but the atmosphere appears to be in a volatile state right now, with many changes occurring globally. While New England may be in a hot pattern now, the upper air patterns and jet streams look like they’re preparing for winter rather than remaining in summer. Joe spoke about something I constantly preach about, and that is not to underestimate the power of latent heating and cooling in our oceans.

The oceans have been like bath water for so long, releasing a tremendous amount of water vapor and heat energy into the atmosphere. Now that the Atlantic is finally cooling off, it is having a profound effect on the short term climate in northern Europe. Cold water temperatures are promoting a trough of low pressure off of Greenland and Iceland (cold & unsettled). This in turn pumps a ridge of high pressure (hot & dry) over much of Europe.

Below this deep trough off of Greenland, a expansive ridge of high pressure, also known as the Bermuda high, has strengthened further than expected this summer. This Bermuda high, is responsible for bringing our hot weather into New England this summer. Typically, the high pulses during the summer, at times becoming strong to give us some hot weather, then weakens allowing cool air from Canada to flow into our region, with refreshing breaks. This year, it has been unusually strong, building westward from the Atlantic, and poking its nose into New England. This began on the first day of July, and has not let up since.

So how do I see the rest of the summer going? Until I see a breakdown in the Bermuda high pattern, I have to go with the trends…hot! In what could end up being my worst seasonal forecast in years, it will be interesting to see just how far Mother Nature is going to take this. After a brief cool down this weekend into next week, there are already signs of another surge of high heat and humidity the last 10 days of August. If this occurs, it would not shock me if Boston tops 20 days of 90 degree temperatures this summer! For what it’s worth, nobody had a summer forecast anticipating this kind of heat!

Now for your beach, boating and camping forecast. The best days for beach and boating appear to be today, tomorrow, early Wednesday, later Thursday, and then straight on through next weekend. It’s going to be a hot week, so hopefully your plans bring you close to the ocean, lake or river! Be prepared for the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, as a front tries to push into all this heat and humidity. Warm weather will return, with just a chance of an afternoon or evening storm this weekend.

Time for your weekly summer vacation, outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect full triple H conditions this afternoon, which is hazy, hot & humid. The NWS has issued excessive heat warnings, with high temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees, with heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees! Wow, take it easy out there,  drink plenty of fluids, and please don’t forget to check on your pets and elderly folks! If you are seeking relief, head to the Cape or local beaches, where a weak feeble sea breeze may keep it a few degrees cooler.

It could be the warmest night of the summer tonight. Temperatures may not fall too much lower than 75 degrees in Boston,and with high levels of humidity, it will make for an extremely stuffy night for sleeping. No rain is expected.

Tuesday will be a carbon copy of today, but perhaps a few degrees less hot, but just as much humidity, if not a bit more. Temperatures should top off between 94 and 97 degrees, with hazy skies. An approaching front may spark off some thunderstorms across northern New England. There’s only a 10% chance of rain in Boston tomorrow.

Another very warm and muggy night is expected tomorrow night, with low temperatures mainly in the 70’s.

Watch for a volatile day on Wednesday. A cool front will be punching into New England. As this happens, it will lift the hot air up into the atmosphere creating a very unstable environment. After some morning sun, watch for showers and thunderstorms to develop and move from west to east across the state during the day. Because of the existing heat and humidity, some of these storms may become severe, with straightline winds, vivid lightning, and a small chance of a tornado. We have already seen this several times this summer. Because of the rain, temperatures will be in the lower 90’s, but still with high humidity.

After some morning clouds, it should turn sunny but remain very warm, but not as hot as the next couple days on Thursday. If we get enough sun, temperatures could push 90 degrees again. Expect similar weather for Friday, with perhaps a bit less humidity.

Right now, the weekend looks summery, with warm temperatures, but not too hot, with highs up into the mid 80’s. A couple disturbances may move through over the weekend, which would bring the risk of a thunderstorm or two, especially during the late afternoon. A washout is not anticipated, but a clear weekend with no rain can not be gauranteed at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about our warm oceans, and how this is going to effect our future weather patterns. I may also have some very early preliminary thoughts about this upcoming fall and winter?? Also watch for my new beach, boating and vacation forecast. In the meantime, go to the beach, run under the sprinkler, eat popsicles…do whatever you need to do to beat this heat!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

Steam Heat Returns! 7/30/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Welcome to the mid-point of summer here in the Northern Hemisphere! While meteorological summer is two thirds over, this is actually the mid point of astronomical summer, which ends on September 22nd this year.

Overall, the weekend was quite summery across most of the region. Most storms stayed away on Saturday, though there were some exceptions up north, but certainly nothing widespread.

Though not a bad day by any stretch of the imagination, I was a bit disappointed in the weather on Sunday. In my mind, I had envisioned a cooler, dryer air mass with lowering dew points, amidst cobalt blue skies.  No doubt, dew points lowered from the sultry levels felt most of last week, but the cobalt blue skies…not so much!

The day featured a lot of high and mid level cloudiness, giving the sun a milky appearance for the better part of the day. This was in response to the cold front that passed through the region on Saturday.

Rather than plowing through the region, the front actually barely oozed through, sluggishly pushing the unbearable high humidity just off the coast. This makes total sense given the pattern we are in.

This allowed moisture, in the form of clouds, to continuously stream up from south to north, especially across southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape and Islands.

Not to make any excuses, but computer models did a poor job picking up on those pesky clouds, yesterday. Just another example showing just how changeable our weather can be here in New England!

So how’s your summer going? Not too shabby weatherwise, I would say so far! I wouldn’t call it a perfect 10, but my goodness haven’t we seen our share of beautiful summer weather?

After a quite a bone chilling cold spring, summer bursted on the scene in May, with more than half the days up in the 80’s.

June featured many delightful days, with humidity levels in check, and close to average amounts of rain. While there were some cool days, there were just as many warm ones, making June as close to average as one could get. But the summer was just getting warmed up, as they say!

July came in like a lion, with a 7 day heat wave in many locations, making it one of the warmest starts to any July on record. While temperatures may have eased back a bit, the real nemesis of summer has taken over in full force…the humidity!!!

Up to this point, I’m pleased at how the summer forecast has worked out. If summer were to end now, I would be right on the money! But summer is not ending now, or anytime soon according to the latest computer guidance.

Boston has already reached 90 degrees 10 times so far this summer, with many inland communities nearly double this amount. To be up front, I was confident in seeing a hot July, but not necessarily to this degree. The  call was for between 10 and 14 this summer.

August was always the wildcard whether the heat would continue, or end abruptly. After studying all the data, it now appears as if  the Bermuda high is going to maintain its strength along the eastern seaboard straight on through August.

What is the Bermuda high you ask? This is a region of high pressure (warm & dry) near Bermuda, which typically strengthens during the summer months.

Because the circulation of high pressure flows clockwise, this acts as a heat pump during the summer, drawing hot weather along with high levels of humidity northward into New England, from the Deep South.

This Bermuda high has become the dominant player this summer. Therefore, it would not surprise me if we receive another 3 to 5 days of 90 degree days this summer here in Boston. This would bring us up to at least average, if not slightly above average before all is said and done. Summer lover’s rejoice!!

While I’m expecting the warm weather to continue, I’m also expecting the awful muggy weather to bring new meaning to the old saying “the dog days of summer.” My goodness it’s been awful!

With our muggiest weather typically in August, things could get a bit worse before it gets better in regards to the mugginess. Ugh! Overall, I’m expecting above average temperatures this August, as well as above average precipitation across much of the region. But as is the case in most summers, some get more rain than others.

So far, many locations has received just enough rain to keep things green this summer. As is typically the case, some have seen more than others. The latest drought monitor continues to focus on dryer than normal conditions across northern New England. After several dry years, southern New England has no current warnings or advisories for abnormally dry conditions.

This summer pattern has many tricks up its sleeve. I have mentioned it before, but I will mention it again. I am becoming increasingly concerned about a tropical storm or even a hurricane striking New England this season!

Many weather enthusiasts, many of who are interested in hurricanes, have voiced their disappointment with the lack of hurricane activity so far this season. I have a couple things to say about this.

First, I understand their passion. While hurricanes are not my expertise, I can relate with my love for nor’easters. Many people think this a warped way of thinking, at those who are disappointed that there are no hurricanes this year. While I do not wish any structural damage or loss of life to anyone, it’s these storms that drive the passion for the love of weather. I have always said, it only takes one of these storms to result in billions of dollars worth of destruction. After last years catastrophic season, I’m hoping we see no hurricanes this year. But this is nature after all, and it’s a natural process of the earth to distribute heat energy into the atmosphere.

Second, it’s still only July. The peak of hurricane season is still 6 weeks away, typically occurring around September 10th. While it’s true the ocean temperatures are much colder than they were at this time last year, there’s still time for things to change.

With all that being said, I was on board forecasting a below average hurricane season this year. This does not mean we are in the clear! As mentioned above, New England has to be on alert this year for a hurricane. Why? While the ocean temperatures are below average across the Caribbean Ocean, they are above normal off our coast.

Next, remember that Bermuda high I spoke about above? Yes, while this is bringing us the summer weather we love right now, it may also act to direct a hurricane off the east coast straight up into New England, later in the summer.

All this humidity and tropical downpours we’ve been receiving of late may be priming the atmosphere for such an event to occur. I will be closely monitoring this potential, and keep everyone updated should the threat arise.

Now for your beach, camping and boating forecast. Despite the chance of some scattered afternoon thunderstorms, this is going to end up being another great vacation week. Look for best beach days to be today, tomorrow, but truthfully everyday is looking good for the beach, at some point or another. Folks on the Cape may have to battle typical morning fog, as the humidity ramps up. There’s also a risk for some thunderstorms, but this activity looks like it wants to remain mainly across the interior. Best chance for the coast to see a thunderstorm appears to be Wednesday, Thursday, then again on Saturday. If your plans take you camping across the interior of New England, be prepared to encounter thunderstorms each afternoon this week, especially from Wednesday on. Boating looks good, except during afternoon storms. Just keep an eye to the sky!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Today will be another very nice day. Expect mainly sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, and very warm temperatures. Highs will reach into the mid 80’s. As a warm front approached us, we may be battling some high clouds from time to time during the day.

Look for warm and dry weather for your Monday night. A great night for a ball game, or an evening cook out. As has been the case lately, temperatures in Boston won’t drop much further from 70 degrees.

A warm front will be approaching and moving through our area on Tuesday. This will mean a couple things. First, there will be a few more clouds around. This can be tricky, as warm fronts can either move through sluggishly with a lot of clouds, or without much fanfare with a surprising amount of sun. I’m going with a mix of sun and clouds, with most clouds during the morning. There’s also a chance of a few showers across the Cape and Islands early on, but it should not be a washout. Second, you will notice an uptick in the humidity. While it won’t be oppressive, you will begin to feel the air becoming increasingly heavy.

Expect generally fair and warm weather tomorrow night, with low temperatures remaining in the lower 70’s in Boston, and 60’s in rural areas.

For the period Wednesday through Saturday, expect the steam heat to return, with temperatures very close to 90, and oppressive dew points returning! There will be a very muggy feel to the air. Yuck! Watch for areas of morning fog across coastal areas, especially down on the Cape. Also watch for the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, mainly across the interior, but even Boston could see a storm or two each afternoon. No washouts are anticipated east of Worcester. Patterns like this typically bring very little rain to the Cape.

After the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm on Saturday, we may get another brief break in the humidity come Sunday. If the front makes it through, expect clearing skies, and warm temperatures, with lower levels of humidity, and highs in the mid 80’s. Another fine beach day!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new vacation forecast, as well as my outdoor summer activity outlook. I will also try to let you know just how long this awful humidity will be sticking around for. In the meantime, if you love steamy weather, this is the summer that keeps on giving!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

T

 

 

Well Hello, Florida! 7/23/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a 50/50 weekend weather wise around here. Saturday continued the splendid weather we enjoyed from last week, with deep blue skies, low dew points, and comfortable breezes. The weather pattern changed on Sunday, with many communities seeing tropical downpours, higher levels of humidity, and a damp wind blowing in from the ocean.

This was not the case everywhere! Many locations down the Cape actually had a half decent day, with most people seeing very little rainfall, along with some periods of hazy sun. Certainly not the best beach day, but no washout by any means. All in all, it was a very changeable weekend, with the best weather on Saturday.

Last week, I spoke of a pattern change heading towards the eastern part of the U.S. including us here in New England. In rather dramatic fashion, the pattern has indeed changed, seemingly overnight Saturday this past weekend. After a torrid first week of July, with nearly every day reaching 90 + degrees along with oppressive levels of humidity, the weather the past couple weeks could not of been more perfect! If you had vacation on either of the past two weeks, you were treated to summer weather at its best here in New England!

So what does this new pattern mean for us here in New England? Does it mean summer is over, and time to break out the fall jackets? The short answer to this question is no! This answer should bring a feeling of relief for all my summer worshipers out there, (I know exactly who you are)!

This may be true for us here in New England, but it will be a different story for folks who live in the mid west. No doubt, it’s a very strange pattern being that we’re smack dab in the middle of the summer. If I had maps, I could show you what’s happening. Hopefully someday soon I will have that capability, but in the meantime, I will have explain it verbally.

So far, I’m fairly pleased at how the summer forecast is working out. Boston stands at 9 days reaching 90 degrees. The final call for the summer was low end 10, and high end 14 depending on if the heat persisted into August. I also mentioned that July would feature the hottest weather of the entire summer. The one wildcard remains the month of August. Long range outlooks from NOAA keeps the above normal temperature regime here in New England for the entire month. Should this forecast verify, we could be looking at 3 to 5 more days of 90 degree days here in Boston this summer. If we reach the high end of that scale, that would give us close to 14 days , which is exactly average for Boston!

While I mentioned that this would not be an exceptionally hot summer this year, I did mention that it would please many, with long stretches of warm weather. So far, I think many would agree this has been the case! In nearly all summers, even the great ones, there’s bound to be a week or two that’s not a perfect “10”, we don’t live in Florida after all…or do we?

After studying New England weather my whole life, I can tell you that we live in a unique spot on earth. At any given time, we can experience different climates from across the entire world, right here in our own back yards! Because we are located at the exact half way point between the Equator and the North Pole, with Canada to our north, and the warm Gulf Stream to our south, our weather can be like watching a ping pong match, changing whenever the wind changes direction!

Over the past couple weeks, we’ve enjoyed a delightful flow coming out of Canada. This has not only kept the intense heat to our south, but also brought us low dew points, which meant comfortable nights for sleeping! Over the weekend, the upper air pattern suddenly shifted resulting in a very unusual pattern invading the U.S. that had many experts wondering if this was July or November?

While a huge ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) developed over Texas, extending westward towards the Pacific northwest, an unusual deep trough of low pressure (cool & unsettled) formed across central Canada, and tracked southeast towards the mid Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a huge ridge of high pressure out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, also known as the Bermuda High, strengthened, and retrograded west towards New England. Because winds flow clockwise around the high pressure, our  airflow is coming directly out of the tropics and Florida, straight into New England! So while the mid west and even parts of the mid Atlantic experience a touch of fall over the next 10 to 14 days, it will be anything but that for us here in New England! The boundary where the warm tropical air, collides with the cool air is where all the flooding rains are occurring across the mid Atlantic and portions of Pennsylvania.

In fact, as the two streams collided, a winter type nor’easter storm developed this weekend. Some thought because of the time of year, that this may have tropical origins to it. This storm explosively developed, bringing 5 to 7″ of torrential rain to the Washington D.C. region. This storm then moved northwest, through Pennsylvania and into New York state. Meanwhile, a southerly flow developed across New England, bringing oppressively muggy air from Florida, straight up into New England. Everyone following this?!

So where do we go from here? Some in the weather community believe that this pattern change is a sign of things to come. It’s still too early for me to speculate on this theory. However, should something like this were to repeat itself during colder months, a unusual winter similar to 2009-10 could be on the table. This winter delivered record snowfall to the mid Atlantic region, while bringing New England a warm and wet winter, with below normal snow. A very unusual pattern indeed!

In the short term, basically what you see is what you get. We are stuck in this tropical pattern for the next 7 to 10 days. This means very warm temperatures, along with oppressive levels of humidity for the foreseeable future…maybe through the first week of August. Because our climate is going to be similar to that of Florida, we can also expect periods of tropical downpours at times. This does not mean it’s going to be raining all the time. I will let you know when I believe we will experience the rainiest weather this week in my forecast shortly.

For those cooler weather fans out there, I have some good news for you, too! If you love summer, and endless warm temperatures, skip this section and go right to the forecast! Seven years ago yesterday, Boston’s high temperature was  103 degrees. This was only one degree short of the cities hottest temperature ever recorded, which was 104 degrees set back on July 4th, 1911. You may say, Pete, this doesn’t look cool to me!

The good news, is that today marks the climactic warmest period of the year. After today, the daily averages begin to slowly descend. It’s a bell curve, and we are currently at the peak of the curve. From here on out, it’s all downhill! Yes, it’s a slow descent, and we really won’t notice a difference until sometime in September, It was just last year, that Mother Nature defied the climatological average, as temperatures continued to warm, against the averages, the deeper we went into late summer and early fall. Remember last October? One of the warmest ever recorded here in New England!

Now for your beach, camping and boating forecast. While I’m expecting periods of tropical showers this week, it will not be a complete washout. Expect the wettest weather to be later Wednesday into Thursday, and possibly Friday afternoon. The best weather will be tomorrow, part of Wednesday, most of Friday, and most of the upcoming weekend. While no major organized storm is expected, heavy rain and thunderstorms will make later Wednesday and most of Thursday be dangerous to be on or near the water. Also watch for thunderstorms later Friday. If you can wait, the weather looks much better for the upcoming weekend!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily on the nice weather anticipated for next weekend. Expect warm and muggy weather for the rest of today, along with the chance of a few tropical like showers. In between these showers, there may be some sunny breaks. It will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. Expect similar weather tonight, with warm and muggy conditions, with the chance of a few downpours Watch for areas of fog along the south coast and Cape and Islands.

Tuesday will feature a murky start to the day, with areas of low clouds and fog. However, expect the sun to break out during the late morning and continuing for the rest of the day. It will feel like the tropics out there, with highs in the lower 80’s, along with very muggy conditions. Because the air is so loaded with moisture, I can not rule out a brief tropical like shower tomorrow, but most will remain dry.

It should remain dry tomorrow night, but expect areas of fog and low clouds to move into coastal locations and the Cape and Islands. It will be warm and stuffy, with lows only dropping to the low 70’s in Boston.

Temperatures may be a bit warmer on Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80’s. It will continue to be very muggy, which will certainly make it feel much warmer than what the temperature says. Later in the day, that boundary will begin pushing east. As this happens, we will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms later in the day and at night.

This boundary will only slowly push through the region on Thursday. Therefore, expect periods of heavy tropical downpours to continue, especially the first half of the day. It will continue to be warm and humid, with highs in the lower 80s. With the heavy rain expected, watch for areas of street flooding.

The boundary may move just enough off the coast on Friday to allow some clearing skies to develop. It will continue to be very warm and humid, with high temperatures near 90. High pressure may begin to briefly build down from eastern Canada this weekend. This may result in a few thunderstorms later Friday as the drier air moves into the region.

As this high pressure works into New England this weekend, it may deliver a brief surge of lower dew points, and drier air! If it all works out, we may be treated to one heck of a beautiful mid summer weekend, with very warm temperatures and no rain! Enjoy it, because the muggy weather is going to return next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking ahead as to what to expect for the month of August, and recap July. I will also have your new beach, camping and boating forecast.  In the meantime, enjoy the Florida climate while it’s here, who knows what New England has in store for us next!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

 

 

 

Brief Heat…Warm…Rinse & Repeat! 7/16/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was  another summery weekend across the region. Maybe not as hot as earlier in the week, but still warm enough to head to the beach or enjoy any other outdoor summer activities! Saturday was warm, with intervals of sun and clouds. A sea breeze in the afternoon kept coastal areas temperatures cooler than inland locations. Sunday was warmer, with some inland communities reaching 90 or a bit better. Once again, the beaches were quite comfortable with afternoon sea breezes. Why else would we go to the beach? To seek relief from the heat, of course!

There were some thunderstorms around, but the majority of the region remained dry. A quick glance around the Boston area yesterday revealed the telling signs of yet another dry summer, as lawns are beginning to dry out.

This is the current state across the Boston area. But is it going to remain like this for the remainder of the summer? Are we on a downward spiral of burned out lawns, water restrictions and brown foliage again this fall? Has the summer pattern locked in until September? The short answer to all these questions is no!

We are halfway through meteorological summer, and I would say the first half of the summer has been quite spectacular! It’s featured a little bit of everything, up to this point. June had very low humidity levels, and many sunny warm days. July so far has been a summer for beach lovers, with sunny, hot & muggy weather, sandwiched in between some lovely days with warm temperatures and low dew points.

When I wrote my summer forecast, I spoke of July featuring the hottest weather for the entire summer. So far, this has worked out very well, in my opinion! July got off to one of the hottest starts on record across the region. So far, Boston has seen temperatures hit 90 degree + 5 times this July (8 overall). Depending on sea breezes this week, we may see another one or two. The summer forecast called for a minimum of 10 days of 90 degree heat, with a maximum of 14, if the heat persisted into August.

We are approaching 10, but the big question is will we go beyond? I foresee changes coming to the pattern heading into the last 10 days of this month, heading into August. The first 10 days of July saw many 90 degree days, but has since slowed down considerably, being thwarted by see breezes along the coast. Remember, the forecast was for a shorter summer than in years past, with a fast start in July, but an abrupt change in August. I can now see these changes appearing on computer models.

The heat ridge (warm & dry) that has dominated the eastern part of the country, is set to retrograde to the western part of the country, and western Canada. This will allow troughs of low pressure (cool & unsettled) to begin pushing into the Great lakes and Ohio Valley, eventually migrating their way towards New England, as we head towards August. The big question on many meteorologists and weather enthusiasts minds,  if this is a major pattern change heading into the late summer and fall, or just a temporary cool down, with more heat later?

It’s been my experience, with developing weak El Nino’s this time of year,  that this could be a major pattern change to cooler and wetter times for us here in New England. Last week, I spoke of the potential for extreme weather patterns showing up again, after a few year break. Weak El Nino’s are notorious for pattern flips in August, resulting in cooler and unsettled weather conditions. In fact, my research shows that these patterns can persist right into the following winter, resulting in heavier than normal snowfall, especially for coastal New England. Of course this is all speculation at this point, with many more details to follow!

Does this mean summer is over? Absolutely not! As I mentioned in my summer forecast, I felt that we could be done with the worst of the summer heat by late July. This means temperatures in the 90’s with dangerous heat index values like we experienced the first week of July. If my forecast holds true, New England could still be fortunate enough to be sandwiched in between two air masses fighting it out for real estate. Cooler air to our north , could mix with hot air to our south, resulting in a equilibrium of pleasant temperatures for New England. We may be done with the 90’s, but I would say the majority of people don’t mind 70’s and 80’s!

Unfortunately for beach goers, campers and hikers, this pattern can also produce more rainfall. This is good news for our lawns and gardens, and also for this years fall foliage season. If you recall last summer was so dry, the leaves just turned brown when fall arrived, resulting in a less than average fall foliage season. This does not mean no more beach days. I would just say it’s not going to be as consistent than it has been. You will have to pick your days more carefully!

We haven’t mentioned the hurricane season too much so far this year. This is great news for folks in the Caribbean region, who were ravaged by several storms last summer and fall. Last week, we had Hurricane Chris quickly develop into a category 2 storm off the Carolina coast. Lucky for us, jet stream winds steered this storm far enough away from New England with limited impacts. As the storm made its closest pass to our coast, it was able to generate some large surf, and dangerous rip currents. Seas have since calmed down off the New England coast.

WeatherBell Analytics meteorologist Joe Bastardi is calling for a less active season for the the Caribbean basin, but telling folks along the east coast to New England to watch out! He is comparing the ocean temperatures and upper level steering winds of this year, to the famed year of 1960! On September 12th and 13th, Hurricane Donna tracked along the New England coastline, bringing with it flooding rains, and heavy structural damage due to winds of over 100 mph. Unusually warm ocean temperatures just off our coast, along with favorable upper air patterns heading into the fall, make this year especially vulnerable for the east coast, including New England! Could Hurricane Chris been a warning shot for New England? I believe it very well could of been. I will be closely monitoring this situation very closely, as we move deeper into hurricane season.

Now for your weekly beach, boating, and camping forecast. Overall, this is going to be another great week to enjoy these activities! Expect the best beach days to be today, later Wednesday, then again Thursday through Saturday! Keep an eye to the sky if you’re doing any boating tomorrow, as there could be some heavy thunderstorms approaching the area, especially late in the day. If you’re out camping, be aware of the potential for strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms crossing interior New England later tomorrow. Seek shelter, and prepare before this type of weather approaches! These storms should weaken some as they move into the more stable marine environment across southeastern Mass. and the Cape tomorrow night. Later in the weekend, more thunderstorms could threaten the area, but don’t call off outdoor plans just yet.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out 10. Look for hazy sun, hot and increasingly humid weather for much of New England this afternoon, with highs in the lower 90’s. If you seek relief from the heat, head to the beaches, where temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler with a refreshing sea breeze. Logan Airport will see temperatures in the lower 80’s as well, but mid to upper 80’s will be common across the remainder of the city.

Expect warm and muggy weather to settle in across much of the region tonight, with lows only dropping to around 70 in the city, and lower 60’s across suburbia. Skies will remain hazy, due to the increase in humidity levels.

With a stronger southwest wind, I’m expecting hot temperatures right to east facing beaches tomorrow. With this wind trajectory, expect cooler temperatures along the south coast of New England, including much of Cape Cod. If we get enough sun, temperatures should soar up into the lower 90’s for a time, along with oppressive levels of humidity! As a cold front approaches from the north and west, watch for building cumulonimbus clouds during the afternoon. The best dynamics for severe storms is going to be located across the interior of New England tomorrow, especially areas north and west of I495, but could come as close as I95 as weakening but strong storms. At this point, a couple thunderstorms could cross the city of Boston during the evening, with drenching rains, but severe storms are not expected in Boston at this point. Storms should further weaken as they head towards the Cape, but even there expect some showers overnight.

After some early morning clouds, expect sunny and drier weather for the balance of your Wednesday. It will be noticeably drier, with temperatures remaining on the warm side in the lower 80’s. Wednesday evening should feature fine weather to take a walk along the beach, or go out for dinner. Expect dry conditions, with warm temperatures, only cooling off late at night.

Similar weather will follow suite for Thursday and then again Friday. The only difference is you may notice temperatures warming up a bit, along with an uptick in humidity levels. Otherwise, fantastic beach days! Saturday will see a return to hazy, hot and humid weather, with temperatures heading up to near 90 once again. Right now, I am taking the optimistic road for Sunday, calling for another very warm day. With more clouds than Saturday, temperatures may not get as hot, and there will be a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Currently, a washout is not expected. It could be a different story come next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking deeper into the pattern change I’m expecting heading into August. I will also have your new beach, boating and camping forecast. In the meantime, you may feel like you’re in a washing machine with this forecast…what else would you expect from someone who sells appliances?

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

 

Brief Heat…Then Nice! 7/9/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their 4th of July holiday, and long weekend! The weather over this past weekend could not of been any better! A cold front pressed through the region on Friday, and with it swept out all the heat and humidity we suffered through last week! In its wake, much of New England enjoyed what I would call picture perfect summer weather! Not that we won’t have anymore nice weekends, but I would rate this past weekend quite possibly the best of the entire year! Whether you were doing some camping, boating, or just relaxing at the beach, the weather was perfect for all to enjoy!

The same could not be said for last week. Not that it was rainy or anything, it was just too darn hot for most folks! As the old saying goes here in New England, “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” It was about as muggy as it gets around here. With dew point temperatures in record high territory, coupled with temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s, resulted in heat indices of near 110 degrees in some cases! Many communities, just 10 mile inland from the ocean, had a 7 day heat wave!

A slight onshore sea breeze at Logan Airport prevented the city from hitting 90 on Monday, and then again on Wednesday. Had the sea breeze not occurred, Boston would of had a similar stretch. As it turned out, the city had 5 out of 7 days at or surpassing 90, with Tuesday being the hottest day of the bunch, when the city soared to 98 degrees! Still very impressive, indeed!

No doubt it was hot. But due to the timing of the heat wave, it was even hotter than for the time of year. The fact that the heat wave arrived at the hottest time of the year, makes the heat that much more intense. Averages are at the highest this time of year. It’s the same with record cold arriving at the start of January, when averages are at their coldest. Below normal weather is very cold! If below normal temperatures occurred in July, the end result is still pleasantly warm weather, just due to the time of year!

It was so hot, that according to local record keeping, it was the hottest beginning to July on Record for many locations…including Boston! Which got me thinking, wasn’t it just this past January when we experienced the coldest start to the year on record? Yes! The extreme weather patterns are back! After taking a couple year break after the epic winter of 2014-15, it appears as if the wild swings in our weather patterns have returned!

No sooner than I was thinking this, WBZ  meteorologist Eric Fisher tweeted out how extreme the patterns have been since the start of the year. From record cold to start out January, to a complete reversal of record warm weather in February, then the heavy snows and cold in March, record cold and floods in April, back to warm and dry in May and June! Now record hot weather to start off July! What is the cause, and where are we headed??

It is fascinating. We may not think this as we live our day to day lives, but when we stop and look back, many in the field of meteorology and climate study are intrigued. Some may say it’s weather just being weather. This may be true. However, one must take notice when we’re smashing longtime records for both extremes every other year, as of late. With climate change ongoing, and seemingly only accelerating, we can expect more of these extreme weather patterns to continue, and perhaps get even worse, in the coming decades.

These extreme patterns are still not fully understood. What is the cause? Global warming? Global cooling? El Nino? La Nina? The warm oceans? The sun? These are topics being studied by scientists across the world, trying to determine how these underlying factors are related to one another. As you know, Mother Nature still holds the upper hand in climate research and forecasting. Advanced super computer models and mathematical calculations have greatly improved short term forecasting. But even with that, we only have to look to last winter to see a predicted snowstorm disappear on us the next morning!

My brother in law Michael, sends me a steady stream of short articles written about global warming and climate change. These are very educational short articles, and I’m very grateful he takes the time out to send these to me! With my time at a premium, it allows me to keep abreast of what’s going on in the science community, without needing to set aside 4 hours out of the day to read them. What makes this even better is that Michael has a very good understanding about the weather,  and the science that goes behind it. I can always count on a good natured discussion about climate change whenever we get together!

For the record, his thoughts are that the earth is warming rapidly due to man made induced activity. The excess burning of fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas, have resulted in high Carbon dioxide levels, essentially trapping these gasses in the earth’s atmosphere, not allowing warm air to escape back into space, warming the planet. With a warmer planet, the polar ice caps and glaciers are melting at alarming rates. One of the articles he sent me yesterday claims that computer models are actually underestimating the strength and rate at which it’s happening. They say it’s happening much quicker, possibly within our lifetime, and with much greater consequences than first thought. Hype or reality?

I have stated my beliefs about global warming before on my blog. I have said that I do believe in climate change. It has always happened in the past, and will continue into the future. Scientists understand this too by doing extensive research into the earth’s past climate. They accomplish this by ice core samples, tree ring studies, and very technical studies of the earth’s soil, and trapped gases. The thing that troubles me, is the rate at which changes are happening today. What took hundreds of years before, is happening in just a couple decades now.

I’m not ready to jump ship just yet, and flip flop in my thoughts. I’m simply stating that we need to have an open mind when discussing these issues. I still think we need more time to study what’s going on. The warming could still be a result of warm ocean cycles, which occur every 30 years. The Atlantic Ocean is ready to flip to a cold phase, which it hasn’t done in nearly 40 years! If this happens, the rate of warming could possibly slow the warming. However, if the oceans continue to keep warming the way they are doing, not only will global warming activists be correct, but life on earth will be much different as we know it today.

Are the weather patterns more extreme now than in the past? Studies here in New England say no way! They not only say it was hotter back then, but that we had even more severe storms, and more temperature extremes! This is why we need more time to study the data. One other thing to keep in mind is that statistical data can be skewed over years. For instance, the population has grown in a hundred years. This has lead to urban heat island effect, when warm air from the day is trapped in the city pavement and buildings, not allowing temperatures to cool off at night as it used to.

Also, official observation sites where temperatures and precipitation measurements are taken have changed over the course of time. For example, Boston’s site has changed several times. At one point, the site was in Boston Common, which is a couple miles away from it’s current site at Logan Airport. Even that has changed, as the official observation site is actually in Winthrop! This makes Boston’s statistics skewed within in its own city, as the weather is no doubt different from Winthrop to Boston Common, or even worse, West Roxbury, which is a good 12 miles away from Wintrop!

In the short term, I’m happy to report a great vacation week! Whether you’re at the beach, boating, or camping, you can expect fantastic weather! Temperatures will be warmer today and hotter tomorrow, but thereafter, you’re looking at warm, dry weather for the balance of the week. I see the only chance of rain from a thunderstorm later Tuesday, which would introduce a drier air mass. Come next weekend, we may start to heat to near 90  all over again!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I am giving this week a 9 out of 10. As mentioned above, great vacation week! Expect sunny skies for the rest of today. With the strong July sun, temperatures should warm up to near 90 in many locations. The difference is the humidity levels will be in check. Watch for fair and warm weather overnight, with low temperatures falling into the 60’s in urban areas.

If you can, head to the beach on Tuesday! It’s going to be hot and humid tomorrow, with highs near 94 degrees. I don’t expect much of a sea breeze, so it’s going to be hot even at east facing beaches. The only spot with some relief will be at south coast of New England, where temperatures will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler. As a cold front approaches during the afternoon, keep an eye to the sky, as a gusty thunderstorm could visit some communities.

Any showers or thunderstorms will be diminishing tomorrow night. Later at night, cooler and drier weather will filter into New England. Lows will be mainly in the 60’s, with lowering levels of humidity.

Expect warm and dry weather for the period of Wednesday through Friday, with highs in the 80’s inland, and 70’s along the coast with daily sea breezes. As we’re enjoying the beautiful weather, keep in mind there will be Hurricane Chris tracking about 300 miles to the southeast of Nantucket on Thursday. Yes, this storm was a bit of a surprise! Other than a few high clouds, the main effects of this storm will be felt at sea. There may be some high surf and rip currents, especially in beaches which face east or southeast of New England, such as the south side of Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, Chatham and the National Seashore. As the storm moves north, all beaches along the New England coast are vulnerable to rip currents.

Thereafter, expect very warm to hot weather to return to New England this weekend. It would not surprise me if temperatures warmed back up to near 90 on Saturday, and into the 90’s on Sunday, along with higher levels of humidity! A scattered thunderstorm in the building heat can not be ruled out.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about what these extreme patterns could have in store for us here in New England in the coming months. I can promise you this, it will not be boring! I will also have a new vacation,  beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, if you love summer…it’s time to soak it in!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

Brief Relief! 7/2/18

Hello! Happy July 4th holiday week! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It took a while, but this was the weekend everyone had been waiting so patiently for! Full blast summer, from Friday straight through Sunday. No rain, no clouds, no cold winds…just triple H weather, hazy, hot & humid! In fact, with the three days of 90 degree temperatures, Boston had its first official heat wave of the summer. It was definitely a beach goers dream come true! With such a long, drawn out winter, I did not hear too many people complaining about the heat.

Last weeks forecast is verifying quite well. The one slight adjustment I would of made, would of been to tick the temperatures down a bit along the coast. You may say Pete, are you insane? It was plenty hot enough even at the beaches! Yes, I would agree with you 100%. But would if I told you that the coast was the coolest locations in New England? After I made last weeks forecast, computer models began chopping the hot temperatures away from the coast, with some forecasters calling for 0 % chance of a heat wave in Boston!

The culprit was a weak pressure gradient due to a building high pressure heat ridge right over us. When this happens, winds tend to be light and variable. Hot air rises quickly over land. As this happens, cooler air off the ocean is heavier, more dense, and rushes into the area where the hot air vacated. Depending on how strong the sea breeze is, it can cool off the coast as much as 15 to 20 degrees in the spring, and 5 to 10 degrees in the summer.

While it makes it cold during spring, it’s natural air conditioning here in summer! Yesterday’s sea breeze was forecast by computer models to be much stronger than it actually was. It turned out to be very weak and feeble, kicking in very late in the day, after high temperatures were already reached. Rather than panicking and changing my forecast, I decided to leave it, and lean heavily on climatology.

Climatology says that we are entering the hottest period of the year. Basically from about July 1st, to August 15th, we experience the hottest weather of the year, here in Boston. If you don’t like the heat, you should just go into an igloo and hibernate until late August! We are in the same climate zone as January 2nd right now, except it’s July! At this time of the year, the earth is tilted closer to the sun’s radiation, therefore making heat waves, feel  even hotter than one would expect.  Because I believed the computer models were too cold with the sea breeze, I did not cancel the heat wave. I took a gamble hoping the hot weather would overcome the cooling effects of the sea breeze, and it worked!

I knew it was going to be hot when the temperatures shot up to 90 degrees in Boston by 10 am! This was one of the earliest 90 degree readings during a day that I can ever recall here in Boston! While temperatures held in the low 90’s the rest of the day along the coast, this was not the real story for the rest of the region. Most locations across the interior of New England experienced temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees yesterday, with dangerous excessive heat warnings in place! Many places had heat indices approaching 110 degrees! The heat index is a index that takes the actual temperature, combined with the dew point temperature, that gives a temperature on how hot it actually feels on your body. This is the equivalent of the wind chill in the winter! Heat indices were near record highs yesterday, will come down a bit today, then spike up again for the balance of the week through Friday.

With the three 90 degree days in  Boston,  we are now up to 4 for the season. I’m expecting another 3 perhaps even 4 this week. Although that pesky sea breeze will still be flipping and flopping along the immediate coast. As an example, the temperature hovered around 84 degrees right at Logan Airport last Friday most of the day, with a light onshore wind. Later in the day, the wind suddenly shifted offshore, and the hot air from just inland blasted right to the coast, resulting in a 8 degree temperature spike in some 25 minutes!

This led to a actual high temperature of 92 degrees that day. Expect more temperature swings along the immediate coast throughout the week. If you live more than 10 miles inland from the ocean, forget about it! You are locked in what will end up being a 8 day heat wave for many! If a light feeble sea breeze collapses this afternoon, even Boston could spike up to 90 at the last second. If that happens, we too could also share in a very impressive 8 day heat wave! Wow!

As mentioned above, July is statistically the hottest month of the year here in Boston, and much of the Northern Hemisphere for that matter. August can be equally as hot, and be much more muggy too. In a typical July, Boston averages about 5 days of 90 + degree weather. This can range as high as 10 some years, and as low as zero in rare instances. As I mentioned last week, I’m expecting July to be the hottest month of the summer this year. It can fluctuate. Some years August is hotter than July, and in some cases, even June can be hotter. This year, I’m expecting the bulk of the heat this summer to be centered around July. You can expect at least the average amount of 90 degree days, but I’m thinking it may be closer to 7 to 10 times this year! We’ve already had one yesterday, with another 3 or 4 this week!

July typically is the low point of storm activity here in Boston. Statistically, Boston has the least chance of a nor’easter in July, than any other month. However, there’s always the potential of thunderstorms, which could result in flooding rains some years. On rare occasions, Boston does get swiped by a tropical storm or even a hurricane. I remember a few years ago, Arthur  cancelled 4th of July festivities due to flooding rains. I am expecting near average amounts of rain this July, which is about 3 and half inches.

Now that we are in July, how did June turn out? After all the ups and downs, June actually finished almost exactly average! After a very chilly start, a strong finish in the temperature department brought June temperatures very close to the long term average, finishing just .1 degree below average. The month also started off very dry, but a couple soaking rainfalls towards the end of the the month brought values very close to the average. Although I got the number of 90 degree temperatures correct, the month did not finish above average, as I had envisioned.

Now for your weekly camping, beach and boating forecast. At first glance, you would think it’s going to be a cake walk this week. Overall, this is going to be a great week. However, the devil is in the details. Expect great outdoor weather for all the rest of today and tomorrow, with very low chances for rain. There is about a 20% chance of a very isolated shower or thunderstorm tomorrow. If you do happen to receive this shower, it will be brief and move out of the area before any 3rd of July festivities begin.

A weak front will be in the area on the 4th itself, with a 30% chance of a thunderstorm. Again, it will clear out for evening concert and firework activities. It’s going to continue to be hot and muggy from tomorrow through Friday, with highs in the 90’s, and lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Thursday is going to feature very hot and muggy weather, with highs in the 90’s! Watch out for Friday! A stronger cold front will be slicing through New England, bringing with it the chance of some severe thunderstorms! Cooler and drier weather will be on tap this weekend, but cooler is relative. It will still be plenty warm enough for the beach and any other outdoor activities.

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Expect mainly sunny weather for the balance of today. A cooling sea breeze will keep areas along the coast only near 80 degrees today. However, there is a chance that the sea breeze diminishes later in the afternoon, which could spike temperatures to near 90 in Boston towards evening. I will be monitoring this possibility. Otherwise, expect hot and humid weather to continue if you live more than 10 miles inland from the coast, with highs in the mid 90s’ along with high levels of humidity.

Tonight will feature warm and stuffy weather, with fair skies and lows in the 60’s and low 70’s.

More of a offshore wind should mean hot weather could go right to the coast tomorrow, including Boston. In fact, triple H weather can be expected for the balance of the week through Friday., with highs between 90 and 95 degrees, and lows in the 60’s and 70’s. Thursday could be the hottest day since yesterday, with highs in the mid 90’s, with heat indices of near 100 degrees.

For those who celebrate on the 3rd, expect mainly dry and very warm temperatures. As mentioned above, a isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon, should not interfere with evening festivities!

As for the fourth of July itself, expect a hot and humid day, with highs between 90 and 95. A weak front could be trigger mechanism and give enough lift in the atmosphere to spark off a afternoon thunderstorm. Similar to the 3rd, this activity will diminish during the evening, leading to a fine evening for all fireworks and concert activities. Happy 4th!

Thereafter, I’m expecting things to really cook on Thursday, with highs in the mid 90’s. A strong cold front will be approaching from the north on Friday. With all the hot air in place, there is a good chance of a severe line of thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. This line could feature straight line winds, vivid lightning, and hail. I will monitor this day very closely in case any tornado activity is possible. This will signal the end of this particular heat wave.

After the front pushes offshore early Saturday morning, a new air mass will be left in its wake. Expect warm and dry this weather this weekend, fine conditions for beach and boating activities. Watch for high temperatures in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s. Just about seasonal for early July.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking to see if we have any more heat waves in our future this July. I will also have a new vacation forecast, which will contain a new beach and boating outlook. In the meantime, lots to keep track this week! Keep an eye out for that wind direction! West is hot, east is cool! Also, watch for those beautiful fireworks this week, both man made and from Mother Nature!

~Happy 4th of July, to all!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

 

 

 

TORCH! 6/25/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a very disappointing weekend, weather wise. Yes, there were a few sunny breaks yesterday, but this only led to late afternoon showers and thunderstorms…and it became very muggy too. Saturday looked and felt like early April. With a solid overcast all day, and a wind blowing in off the ocean, temperatures were hard pressed to reach 60 degrees in most spots. The one saving grace was that the rain held off for the most part. Although this was not the same story down on the Cape, where I heard they received multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Had it rained in the Boston area, I’m sure temperatures would of been held down to the 50’s all day.

I love Cape Cod. But the Cape is a place meant to be spent outdoors! There is nothing worse than spending time on the Cape, and the weather does not cooperate! When spending time on the Cape, many like to go to the beach, go on bike rides, play tennis, go fishing, enjoy cookouts with friends and family, or just relaxing outside with the cool breeze blowing in from off of the ocean. If it rains, all bets are off! You’re cooped up inside like a prisoner of Mother Nature! You can only play so many games, and watch so many movies.

If you live down the Cape, you’re at the peril of Mother Nature. I have several friends who live there year round, and I can attest to you that this is no place for the faint of heart! While a summer destination for many during the warm months, the climate on the Cape changes dramatically during the winter. Intense nor’easters batter the Cape, with frequent hurricane force winds, power outages with heavy precipitation of rain, snowy blizzards, and many times a combination of the two!

Last winter was a perfect example of this, as frequent strong nor’easters brought damaging winds, coastal flooding, heavy rain and snow to the region. It was a memorable winter for sure! But it’s not just winter storms. Due to its geographic location, the Cape is also vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes. Being a peninsula, the Cape sticks out from the mainland out into the Atlantic some 65 miles! While many storms miss the mainland, they can side swipe or make a direct hit on the Cape!

Other than a few hearty souls, many do not go the the Cape for these fierce storms, nor care for them. Many go for the reasons stated above, to enjoy nature, and relax breathing the refreshing ocean air! While the winters may be stormy, the summers and falls are generally tranquil, with a maritime type climate, of cool foggy nights, and warm, sunny afternoons. At times the weather can get very muggy during the summer, which can lead to prolonged periods of foggy weather.

Not sure how I got sidetracked talking about the Cape! However, I think I would make a good spokesperson for their Chamber of Commerce! I guess the moral of the story is that we’re lucky to have the Cape so close to us to go down there to enjoy!

And come next weekend, we will all be flocking to the Cape and beaches throughout New England! Why? Well it now appears as if a 5 to 7 day heat wave is going to surge into New England beginning this Friday! Folks, last week I poked fun at the media for hyping up a day that may reach 96 degrees ( we didn’t even hit 90). I’m here to tell you, a blast of heat is coming to our region, the likes we haven’t seen in years around here, beginning as early as this Friday!

You may say, Pete, where is this heat coming from? You said it was not going to be a hot summer! Couple of things in my defense. I did say July was going to feature our hottest weather of the summer. Right on cue, the first two weeks of the month look to be torrid! I had confidence in the forecast that we were going to receive a burst of hot weather this summer. The tricky part of that forecast was for how long, and how strong? This heat has been building across the central part of the country for weeks, playing cat & mouse with New England for most of the spring. Now that the solstice has arrived, so to will our first significant heat wave! As the seasons mature, and the oceans begin to warm up, the hot weather will have an easier time reaching coastal New England now.

So far, Boston has only reached 90 degrees once this season. By the time we are through with July, I believe we will have received between 10 and 14 days worth of 90 degree days! If the heat just shut off there, my summer forecast would turn out okay. August was always the wildcard. I’m expecting this heat ridge bubble to retrograde, and move towards the western part of the U.S. as we move deeper into July. This will allow shallow troughs (pockets of cool air) to filter into the eastern part of the U.S. including us here in New England through August. This would essentially shut off the 90 degree days for the balance of the summer. If this does not happen, or is delayed, and the heat continues into August, well then, the forecast is going to go up in burning flames! Would not be the first time!

I can see what’s happening. The problem with many forecasts today is determining the intensity and timing of events. At this juncture, this heat wave could rival some of the great ones. If we can avoid sea breezes along the coast, it could last as long as perhaps one week in duration. The longest heat wave ever recorded here in Boston was way back in 1912 from July 3rd through the 11th, when Boston reached 90 degrees 9 straight days! Hard to believe we haven’t broken this record for well over 100 years! Who says it’s hotter now than it was 100 years ago?

Just how hot am I thinking? According to some of the computer guidance this morning…very hot! It would not shock me if several communities came in close to the century mark in the Sunday-Monday time frame. I’m expecting 90 degree + weather from the period of Friday through at least the 4th of July. If it just stopped there, we would be talking 6 days in a row. But there are indications that it may continue for a day or two longer. It’s not out of the question that we could make a run at the long standing record!

With heat like this, and for so long, this could turn into a dangerous stretch of weather for many. I’m sure excessive heat warnings and advisories will be issued by the NWS as we come closer to the heat wave arriving. Please begin preparations now by making sure your children and elderly folks stay in air conditioned locations, and drink plenty of fluids. Also don’t forget your furry pets! My goodness, imagine wearing a fur coat outside when it’s 100 degrees!

I could get into why I believe the patterns are going to change later in the summer, and  why I am expecting more extreme weather events later this year heading into the upcoming winter. But I will get into all of this later in the summer and as we approach autumn.

Now for your outdoor camping, beach and boating forecast, and your 4th of July outlook!. I’m expecting a very good week for all three activities, especially after today. There will be a storm offshore, which will create some instability along the east coast of New England today. This may result in a few pop up showers this afternoon along the cost. Certainly not a washout. Thereafter, expect beautiful weather for tomorrow and Wednesday. There may be some afternoon thunderstorms heralding in the heat wave, which will begin on Friday. Then watch for triple HHH weather (hazy, hot & humid) straight on through the fourth of July! I’m not expecting much rain through this period, although an afternoon thunderstorm can never be ruled out with this type of air mass. Many have waited a long time for this…a true beach and vacation dream week is coming!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Not bad! It could be much worse, they’re expecting more snow up in Newfoundland tonight! Watch for some sun this afternoon/ However. the air is unstable, with cold air aloft. This will promote some late afternoon pop up showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm? No washout is anticipated. With a northeast wind, temperatures will be cooler than yesterday, with highs only near 70. By the way, the weather will not be the same across the interior today. Expect sunny skies, with temperatures nearing 80!

Watch for clearing skies overnight, with cool temperatures. Lows will range from the 40’s across rural areas, to 50’s to near 60 in urban areas.

Expect fine weather for tomorrow and Wednesday. Look for mainly sunny skies, with temperatures near 80 both days. Tomorrow night will feature clear and cool weather…very similar to tonight.

Advancing hot weather will override the cool air in place on Thursday. This will result in a lot of cloudiness and the risk of a few showers and even some thunderstorms. Temperatures should remain seasonal, with highs near 80.

As a strong high pressure area sinks to our south, expect winds to strengthen out of the southwest on Friday. This will begin to transport hot weather into southern New England. If we see enough sun, temperatures should warm up to near if even slightly over 90 degrees. After that, the flood gates will be open!

Expect full mid summer heat wave conditions to pour into New England over the weekend. Expect hot to very hot weather, with rising levels of humidity. Watch for excessive heat warnings to be issued, as temperatures reach the mid 90’s on Saturday, and 95 to 100 degrees on Sunday and Monday. This, in combination with high levels of humidity, could lead to heat indices of between 95 and 105 degrees!

Thereafter, the hot weather should continue through at least the 4th of July holiday. I’m also expecting mainly dry weather throughout this period. So right now, I’m very optimistic for a absolutely stellar stretch of summer weather for fireworks displays, and beach weather through much of next week! The only question marks would be a light sea breeze on Tuesday temporarily breaking the heat wave? Also, with all the heat heat and humidity, there’s also a chance of advection fog down the Cape and Islands. Otherwise, it’s summer at it’s best!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating everyone on the 4th of July forecast, just in case. I will also have an update as to when I think the heat wave will break, as well as the outlook for July and review for June. Also look for a new beach and boating forecast! In the meantime, I use the word “torch” sparingly when describing warm weather events…this time, the weather will match the description! Be safe!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

 

The Countdown Is On! 6/19/18

Hello! I apologize for the delay! Every now and again, a major technical malfunction occurs. Such was the case yesterday! Typically, it would be my fault, and I would be upset at myself for pressing the wrong button!

In this case, I wrote out the entire post, some 1800 words, pressed publish, and ‘poof’ it was gone! I’m still trying to figure out exactly what happened! The program typically saves drafts as I’m writing, but nothing was saved this time.

Such a shame, as I covered so many different topics, including the summer update. You may say, just write it again. Of course this can be done, I’m doing it right now,  but it’s never going to be the same as the original. The thoughts and information have escaped my mind, and is difficult to retrieve.

Due to time restrictions, I am going to write an abbreviated post,  try and figure out what happened, and be back with a full write up next Monday!

Anyway, I hope everyone enjoyed their Father’s Day weekend! Yes, it appears as if we have broken the cycle of rainy weekends! Temperatures started out a bit on the cool side on Saturday, but warmed up enough on Sunday so that many were able to get outside, go to the beach, or take a hike up in the mountains. It was a beautiful weekend!

Which leads us to yesterday. Oh yes, the day when record high temperatures, heat advisories, and talk of schools being cancelled because of the expected heat was going to happen.

Wow…this was a very bad forecast by many. It reminded me of the snowstorm last winter which fizzled at the last second, prematurely closing schools and businesses across the city.

I too believed it was going to be more than 94 degrees yesterday. That’s what the computer data was saying. But again, Mother Nature goes by her own agenda.

A mass of cloudiness dropped further south at the last minute this morning, and basically parked themselves over Boston well into the afternoon.

By the time the sun finally was able to burn through the clouds around 4 pm, it was too late…temperatures barely nudged 90 in Boston, at the last minute. This was far short of the expected high temperature of 96 degrees, with a heat index of 103.

In any event, the media hype train continues to grow with any sign of a possible weather event. What was once just reserved for winter storms, has now spilled over to cold weather, frosts, snow  flurries, and temperatures possibly hitting 90 degrees.

If it indeed did nudge 90, it would be the third such occurrence in Boston this season. Typically, Boston averages approximately 14 days of 90 degree + days each summer. If you recall, my summer forecast called for 10 days of 90 degree + temperatures for this summer in Boston, made back on May 28th.

After reviewing the latest data, I have decided to keep this number in place. I’m still expecting a warm summer, just not an excessively hot one. A lot hinges on just hot August becomes.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, I’m expecting a cooler year overall. This is partly due to the developing El Niño (warm water off the Pacific South American coast).

You may ask, Pete, you said El Niño’s make it warmer here in New England? Yes, in general they do. However, El Niño’s come in different strengths. The stronger the El Niño is, the warmer the weather becomes across much of the northern tier of the U.S. including us here in New England.

However, there are strong indications that this El Niño is going to be a weak to borderline moderate event. If this happens, it brings a very different pattern to New England during the late summer, fall and winter.

These types of El Niño’s are much colder, and can bring excessive amounts of snowfall to coastal New England. It’s still very preliminary, but I will be monitoring the El Niño throughout the summer months!

Nevertheless, it’s impacts can be felt early on. Right now, I’m expecting the brunt of the summer heat to happen in July this year. If the heat were to linger into August, we could come close to average amount of 90 degree days.

If you were to place a range, you could say between 10 and 14. My personal forecast is close to 10 but I could see with the right conditions, we could  receive a few more than that. We shall see!

When talking about summer heat, you often here me speak about  ‘bubbles’ of heat, and ‘pockets’ of cool weather. Right now, the summer heat finally made its way into southern New England.

However, a slight shift in the jet stream is going to allow for cooler, drier air to punch into New England from Canada, helping to keep it dry for the balance of the week.

However, there are growing signs that hot weather may try and make a run at us towards the end of the month and to start off July..perhaps a hot July 4th?

The summer idea is that New England will be caught in the middle with cool air to the north, and hot air to our south and west. The end result should be a beautiful equilibrium of mild to warm weather, with periods of hot and cool weather visiting New England from time to time. If this zone shifts too much either way, then the summer could become hotter, or cooler than normal. Will continue to monitor.

Speaking of summer, we are now rapidly approaching the summer solstice! It’s also the time of year when my sister Pam tells me summer is over! As a reminder, just because the days begin to shorten, does not mean summer is over!

It’s the same when we arrive to the winter solstice, the days begin to get longer, but the cold weather gets stronger. A process called latent heating and cooling is the cause for this. It takes longer for the oceans to warm up in the spring, and longer for them to cool down in the fall.

This keeps places like New England milder deep into November and sometimes even into December. It also generally keeps us cooler into May, and sometimes June.

If you are planning on doing some camping, boating, or going to the beach, this is going to turn out being a very nice week! Watch for your best days to be Tuesday, Thursday, then again Friday and Saturday.

It could turn a bit cooler with some instability clouds on Wednesday, with the outside chance of a shower, but no washout is anticipated. Temperatures should be in the 80’s today, 70’s Wednesday and Thursday, then low 80’s again Friday and Saturday.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Some unexpected clouds and showers resulted in a overrated rating last week in my opinion.

Today may feature some early morning clouds, but a brisk wind is going to pick up, and will essentially whisk away all the humidity! Therefore, expect increasing amounts of sunshine, with dropping levels of humidity, with high temperatures in the lower 8o’s. Should be a great day to get outdoors to the beach!

Expect comfortable conditions overnight, with clear skies and comfortable temperatures. Low should be in the 50’s and 60’s

Watch for early morning sun on Wednesday. However, a small disturbance aloft will be traversing our area. This will not only keep temperatures cooler in the upper 70’s, but may also generate some afternoon  cumulus clouds, which may yield a few scattered showers across the region.

After this disturbance clears the coast, beautiful weather should return for the period Thursday through Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s Thursday (Happy Summer)! and Friday, and lower 80’s on Saturday.

Another weak disturbance may only serve to foul up beach plans on Sunday. This is not going to result in heavy rain or anything, but may bring with it some considerable cloudiness and a few showers or thunderstorms. It’s still only Tuesday, so things could change!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s update, I will be letting everyone know whether to prepare for a genuine heat wave, or another false alarm! I will also have a long range outlook looking towards the 4th of July holiday week! In the meantime, enjoy the summer solstice! The big question is will real summer weather show up to the party?

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

 

 

Warmer…After Today! 6/11/18

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! All in all, it was nice weekend weatherwise…one that did not feature NO rain for once! Unfortunately, there seemed to be a lot of mid to high level cloudiness in areas along and south of the Mass Pike much of the time. This was in response to another massive rainstorm across the mid Atlantic region. This has been a repetive pattern here in late spring, where they get drenched with downpours, and southern New England is on the northern edge of just some cloudiness.

It may not have rained this weekend, but it was still on the cool side for this time of the year. Believe it or not, parts of northern Maine is still receiving frost at night! It was just last week that Mt. Washington also received an inch of snow! It may seem unusual for us down here in Boston, but in reality, it’s fairly typical for frost up in northern Maine, and a bit of snow on top of Mt. Washington in early June. Remember, Mt. Washington has received measurable snow in each month of the year!

I hate having to keep harping on it, but technically, it’s still spring. Summer does not officially arrive until June, 21st this year. You may say, Pete, what’sa the big deal, it’s practically summer, as it’s only just a little over a week away. I totally agree, but June is one of those weird months weatherwise. Building heat to our south can clash with leftover winter chill to our north, creating a lot of cloudiness and heavy rainfall. This is exactly what’s been happening across the mid Atlantic. In addition, ocean temperatures are slow to warm up during the spring, even now into June. This allows chilly seabreezes to keep coastal areas cooler than one would expect.

Mother Nature also has her own timetable. Even to this date, my confidence with the summer forecast is on the low side. When I blend all my information together, I still believe I made the best educated guesstimate that I could possibly make. There are still no clear signals on how this summer is going to turn out. Computer models are all over the place, at times surging searing heat into New England, only to back off next computer run. It reminds me a lot of the winter, when they keep saying cold and snow are coming, only to have it fizzle at the last second!

I will review the summer forecast next week, to see if I am going to make any changes. Right now, I’m still going with a warm summer, but not terribly hot. Boston averages about 14 ninety degree days each summer. This summer I’m calling for 10 here in the city. This means lots of 80’s may be in our future, which is fine by me, and for many folks who don’t like the extreme heat!

Interesting to note, we’ve already had two 90 degree days here in Boston. If we were to have just an average summer of 90 degree heat, we would end up with about 13 or 14 days of 90 degree days for the season. So we shall see if I’m going to tick it up a few notches, or leave it with my original call.

In the short term, I like what I’m seeing. If you like warm & sunny weather, this is the pattern for you! After a chilly seabreeze today, temperatures will be warming throughout this week. In fact, looking at some of the extended guidance, we could be talking about a possible heat wave about one week from today! A heat wave consists of three consecutive days of 90 degree + tempratures. Last year, Boston received 3 heat waves, one in May, one in June, and one in July, which accounted for 9 ninety degree days. The other three days were scattered in August and September. Though we did not have many more 90 degree days after July, temperatures remained very warm from August through October!

As I have mentioned in previous posts, we are transitioning from La Nina conditions (cold water in the southern Pacific), to El Nino (warm water in the same location). This has many implications not only for our hurricane season, but also for our weather patterns heading into next winter.

For the immediate future, we turn our attention to this years hurricane season. After last years catastrophic storms, I’m expecting a more tame season, this go around. Last year, we had very favorable conditions in the caribbean Sea for storms to develop and turn into massive hurricanes. Not only did they develop into massive storms, but they made direct landfalls resulting in catastrophic amounts of damage.

Last summer we had a surging La Nina. This and along with warmer than normal water, led to the super active season. I’m not an expert in studying La Nina’s, but I do know that this is a good environment for hurricane development. With that being said, I have more experience and understanding of El Nino’s. Perhaps because I have read more about it, and NOAA has known about it longer, so I understand it better.

Typically, when we have a developing El Nino in the Pacific, it increases westerly winds in the upper atmosphere. This creates a hostile environment for hurricanes to develop because it increases wind shear, not allowing hurricanes to strengthen. In an average season, NOAA says to expect between 10 and 12 named storms, with 5 or 6 of these becoming hurricanes. Of these hurricanes, 2 to 3 turn into major hurricanes, of category 3 or higher.

Many are calling for slightly above season. Because of the developing El Nino, I’m expecting a slightly less than average season this year. This does not mean we are out of the woods for a strike! Last year was a good example that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall at the right time, and place resulting in major death and destruction. It just so happened that we had 3 super major storms make direct landfalling hits last season! Oh my!

Everyone has their strong points in studying meteorology. My expertise is studying New England winters and nor’easters. Others are experts in tropical storms…some are good at everything! These forecasts always makes me feel a bit uncomfortable, because of the high risks involved. If you call for a below normal season, and a single hurricane destroys a region, they may remember you for that one bad forecast. This is what happened in 1992, when destructive category 5 Andrew buzz sawed through south Florida. That was the only major storm in that season, but boy was it a doozy! That year was similar to this year, in which we had a developing El Nino that summer. Nonetheless, we do our best to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

So with all that being said, I’m calling for between 8 and 10 named storms, 3 to 5 becoming hurricanes, with one or two turning into a major hurricane of category 3 or higher. After last years super intense season, this does not seem like much. But we shall see, it’s a long season. With warmer than normal water sitting off the east coast, I’m concerned about a in close development near the east coast and up into New England this year. Also areas in the Gulf Coast need to be attentive. Tropical activity seems to be wanting to develop early this year in this region, as water temperatures have been warmer than average. Though I can’t rule it out, Florida does not appear to be in the cross hairs of a hurricane strike this season. I will monitor closely just to be on the safe side!

By the way, due to the developing El Nino, I’m expecting a much more active hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean. Typically, many of these storms travel west towards Japan, and turn into typhoons. Occasionally, a storm will form off Mexico, and turn north into the Baja of California and Cabo San Lucas, bringing flooding rains and high winds. This leftover moisture can also stream into the desert southwest, bringing welcome rains and cooler temperatures. One such storm may already be threatening. Hurricane Bud has formed off of Mexico, and may threaten these exact areas mentioned above!

Now for your camping, beach and boating forecast. This is the week we’ve been waiting for! The only chance of rain the way I see it right now is on Wednesday, and this will be only hit and miss afternoon summer shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, expect great weather for tomorrow, most of Wednesday, and then again from Thursday through next weekend! Next weekend looks to be a great weekend for beach and boating with highs well up into the 80’s and sunny skies! Enjoy!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast! I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Wow! We have not seen that rating for quite some time! Expect mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the afternoon. It will be cool along the coast with highs mainly in the low 60’s. However, if you live 10 miles inland from the coast, temperatures should reach into the lower 70’s. Tonight will feature clear skies with cool temperatures, again. Lows will fall into the 40’s in rural areas, and 50’s in the cities.

As a high pressure tracks east of New England, winds will turn more southerly tomorrow. This means it will be warmer, with highs in the mid 70’s across much of the region, except along the south coast, where this wind acts like a seabreeze, keeping it cooler there. Overall, it should be a pleasant day, with a good amount of sun, and a ventilating breeze. With an increase in humidity and southerly winds, there is a chance of some fog along the south coast tomorrow night, so be aware of that.

Wednesday will feature higher humidity levels under a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be similar to tomorrow, but it’s going to feel more muggy. A cold front slicing through the region later in the day may introduce the chance of a thunderstorm.

Expect warm weather on Thursday with a good amount of sun, and lower levels of humidity. Highs should reach the lower 80’s. A fine day.

It may turn slightly cooler on Friday, with just a few more couds around than Thursday, but no rain is anicipated at this time. With a slightly more northwest flow, temperatures should remain in check in the mid 70’s should do it.

Right now, the upper air flow looks to bend enough to allow a southwest flow into the weekend. This will promote warm and dry weather for both Saturday and Sunday. Right now, I’m expecting mainly sunny days, with highs in the mid 80’s on Saturday, and mid to upper 80’s, maybe even close to 90 on Sunday! Thereafter, we may experience another 2 or 3 days into the following week, so get the a.c.’s ready!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next weeks’s blog, I will be updating, and will have my final summer forecast. As mentioned above, it’s entirely possible that I may leave it the way it was. Or, I could tweak it slightly. I will review latest data. I will also have a new beach and outdoor activity forecast. In the meantime, don’t be discouraged with all the cool weather we’ve been experiencing, the warm weather and summer is arriving…and is right on cue!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~I want to wish a very Happy Birthday to my most loyal fan…my sister, Pam!!!~

Also…Happy Father’s Day!

June: Still Indecisive! 6/4/18

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! It was a high stakes forecast, with so many graduations and weddings happening at this time of the year! I was so happy that it turned out okay for folks who had events planned here in the Boston area! Friday was indeed a summer preview, with hideous levels of humidity. Saturday started off very muggy, but a sudden windshift to the northeast quickly squashed that humidity south of Boston, temporarily setting summer back. Sunday was a beautiful day…for October! Many folks, including myself, enjoyed the refreshing change. But for those who love the beach, not so much!

You may say, Pete, a summer setback already? We haven’t even begun summer, and you’re already talking about a setback? This is true, and another reason not to panic just yet for this summer. Astronomical summer does not officially begin until June, 21st. As mentioned in previous posts, meteorological summer began June 1st, and ends on August 31st. Summer may not officially be here, but for many folks, Memorial Day kicks off the summer season.

Because summer season tends to be short around here in New England, I’m already hearing concerns about the fate of this summer. Quite honestly, I don’t blame folks. I hear them loud and clear, but there’s absolutely nothing we can do about it! After a winter that lingered through much of April, we are already in June. From this point forward, each lousy weekend begins to chop into the few short months we have to enjoy the summer!

I’m not saying that it’s going to be a lousy summer, but the last official dud of a summer was way back in 2009. Nobody wants a dud summer! I remember that summer well. Folks were huddled on the beach with sweat tops and blankets, as northwest gales persisted through much of the season. But what I am saying is that summer here in New England the past 8 years or so, have been generally nice. With that being said, folks become anxious for nice weather this time of year. In reality, June is still a transition month here in New England. It snowed again up in Newfoundland this past weekend! When it comes to weather here in New England, everything is relative.

Again, you may ask, how many transition months do we have here in New England? Well, each year is different. In recent years, the latent heating and cooling effect has been controlling our weather patterns. This is in large part due to the ocean temperatures. After a long, cold winter, it takes time for the Atlantic Ocean to our east and northeast to warm up. For this reason, winter tends to linger coastal New England. Remember, land heats up much more quickly than oceans. As the heat rises off the land, cool maritime has no resistance to undercut the heat, push inland, chilling off the coast. And because the ocean is still rather cold this time of year, high temperatures in the 50’s is not uncommon. I believe we had similar spells in early June the past several years.

If you love summer, and you live here in New England, you must learn to be patient. I’m not trying to teach everyone a lesson or anything, it’s just the facts. It appears we are still dealing with the last vestiges of the winter pattern, here in early June…kind of like a winter hangover. This is quite normal. In fact, over the past several years, summer didn’t even get going until after the 4th of July! While I’m not expecting an excessively hot summer here in New England, I do believe it will be warm enough to satisfy most folks before we turn the calender to fall.

While I’m expecting this summer to eventually warm up, how long it lasts is the next agenda I’ll be working on. The last two summers extended deep into the autumn. With a weak El Nino coming on, things could change more abruptly for us here in New England later this summer and heading into the fall. I will have more about this development over the next several weeks.

As we move deeper into the season, and the oceans begin to warm up, hot air masses from the south and west will eventually begin to penetrate New England. However, as I mentioned in last weeks summer forecast, this is a very tricky pattern to forecast this summer! We are transitioning from La Nina (cold ocean in the Pacific) to a weak El Nino (slightly warmer ocean in the Pacific). We also have to deal with an increasingly colder looking Atlantic Ocean. This is something that will need to monitored very carefully, not only for this summer, but for years to come.

What this typically means is building heat out in the western part of the country. I like to call these “heat bubbles.” In other words, it’s like a balloon, that expands, and builds. Where these “heat bubbles” build and persist, is where the hottest weather is going to develop this summer. Right now, I’m expecting this to occur in the center part of the nation, which it already is, then retrograde towards the west coast as the summer matures.

What does this mean for us here in New England? As the heat ridge builds out west, a cool pocket develops on the east side. Think of it like a see saw. One side goes up, while the other side comes down. You might be thinking, uh oh, break out the sweat jackets and hoodies this summer! Well, not exactly! Believe me when I say this, we would not want to be under this heat bubble! You’re going to hear news reports this summer at how awful the heat is in much of the country! Right now, I’m still going with a nice mix between the two extremes.

The very hot weather may not be too far away from New England at times. Meanwhile, the very cool weather may also be not too far away at the same time to our north. What this could lead to for us here in New England is a lot of cloudiness and showers and thunderstorms at times. Overall, it should lead to a nice equilibrium of hot and cool air masses, leading to a generally pleasantly warm summer. I will be updating my summer forecast in a few weeks to see if any tweaks are needed.

While I am forecasting a fairly average summer around here, it is interesting to note that May was actually much warmer than average this year in much of New England. This certainly helped dormant trees to help blossom after such a long late winter. While not overly abundant, there has been just enough rain to keep the gardeners happy. Although I am aware that some areas received more than others.

June is looking pretty interesting to me. While summertime heat builds to our south and west, cooling influence from Canada should protect us at least for the first half of June. This should lead to fairly comfortable, seasonable temperatures for our area. Because the boundary will be close to us, I am expecting more periods of wet weather, especially here in southern New England. Later in the month, there are some signs that the pattern may temporarily shift, and allow some hot weather to flood into New England. Boston typically averages about three 90 degree days in June, and I can see us reaching that number before the month is through. Despite the cool start, I am thinking June ends up a bit warmer than normal, but not as warm as May was, against the averages.

Now for your beach, boating and camping forecast. While not the best of weeks, if you time it right, you may get some periods of nice weather. Worse days for outdoor activities this week will be today, tomorrow, and perhaps early Wednesday, then again on Sunday the way it looks right now. Thursday, Friday and Saturday look decent, though watch for a thunderstorm on Friday. Overall, temperatures will be warming back up to seasonable levels, which means low to mid 70’s for many of us.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Look for mainly cloudy skies for the rest of this afternoon. There may be some leftover drizzle here in the Boston area, and some exiting showers down on the Cape. It will be cool, with highs only in the 50’s.

Tonight will feature mainly overcast skies, though some breaks may show up later at night. With leftover moisture around, we may be dealing with some patchy fog in some places. Lows will generally be in the 40’s and 50’s.

Tuesday will start off with partial sunshine and warmer temperatures. However, a cold pool aloft will be crossing southern New England during the day. This means be prepared for building clouds, along with the chance of afternoon showers, and possibly some isolated thunderstorms containing small hail. The greatest threat for this appears to be areas south of the Mass Pike at this time. With early sun, temperatures will respond to near 70, before any rain develops.

Showers may linger into Tuesday evening, with low temperatures mainly in the 50’s.

There may be some scattered early morning showers on Wednesday, otherwise, I’m expecting a generally dry day, although not with too much sunshine, with highs in the mid 60’s. Fair weather is expected Wednesday night, with lows in the lower 50’s.

I’m expecting generally fair and warm weather from Thursday through Saturday. Although not perfect, a shower still can’t be ruled out during this period. Expect high temperatures in the 70’s on Thursday, lower 80’s on Friday, and mid 70’s again on Saturday. A cold front will approach from the north during Saturday evening, and may complicate the weather for Sunday. A small storm may develop along this front and cross New England with a period of rain Saturday night and into Sunday morning. If this moves quickly enough, it may allow for improvement later Sunday. However with a north, northeasterly flow, temperatures are once again looking to be below average. Timing is subject to change!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my hurricane forecast. Sorry I could not fit this in today, as time is short. There is currently no threats for tropical development for this week. I will also be monitoring the latest volcanic activity, and let you know if this has any implications on our weather patterns. I will also have a new summer outdoor activity forecast. In the meantime, let’s hope Mother Nature figures it out soon, the natives are getting restless!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

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