First Flakes…Then a Brief Warm Up! 11/13/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After a fairly mild Friday, the weekend turned decidedly colder. Both days were dry, but featured daytime highs in the 40’s and overnight lows in the teens and 20’s. In fact, Boston’s Logan airport finally dropped below freezing Sunday morning, with a low temperature of 31 degrees, officially ending the growing season. Average date of first freeze at Logan airport is November 7th, so it was slightly behind schedule, but nothing out of the ordinary. This morning was even colder, with a low of 29 degrees. This was the coldest temperature observed at the airport since March 20th. Across the interior, it was even colder. Many locations set back from the coast had low temperatures between 18 and 25 degrees. Indeed, the warm days of October are a distant memory!

First frosts and freezes are a milestone as we progress to winter. For those who enjoy winter, having the temperature drop to 32 degrees before the first wintry precipitation event is critical! I can guarantee you, if it snows before you have the first freeze, a mild winter lies ahead. It’s almost the atmosphere is telling you something. There’s nothing scientific about this, just good old fashioned knowledge from a lifelong weather observer! You may ask, how can it snow if it isn’t 32 degrees out? Trust me, it can and does! If the upper levels of the atmosphere is below 32 degrees, the precipitation falls as snow. If the precipitation falls hard enough, it can reach the ground even if it’s 34 or 35 degrees or sometimes even warmer!

Back in 2011, there was a big storm before Halloween, where much of interior New England got socked with up to 24″ of wet snow. Along the coast, it snowed hard, but temperatures remained above freezing throughout the event. This meant only a few inches of slushy wet snow accumulated, much of which melted as quickly as it fell. The following winter was one of the warmest ever recorded in New England. People were going to the beach on Columbus Day weekend that year!

After a colder than average start to November, I have some good news! It looks like the pattern is going to relax somewhat later this week so we can enjoy a brief warm-up! In fact, with Boston officially recording temperatures below freezing, we can officially call this a brief taste of Indian Summer! What is Indian Summer? Many people have different interpretations of it, which is okay! Some people feel any warm stretch of weather after the autumnal equinox can be classified as Indian Summer. However, the official qualification for Indian Summer is a stretch of warm weather, preferably 3 straight days with clear skies and light winds…after the first frost. If you want to be technical, they say most of the trees should be bare. However, the main stipulation is to receive a first frost or freeze.

Some friends have asked me what the difference is between a frost and a freeze. A frost can occur even if the air temperature is above freezing. This is because if winds are calm, cold air is dense and settles to the ground. Temperatures can super cool to 32 degrees, while 6 to 10 feet above the ground it can still remain between 33 and 36 degrees. A freeze is when the layer of cold air is thicker and temperatures fall to 32 degrees or lower for three straight hours, essentially killing the growing season. A hard freeze occurs if temperatures fall further to 29 degrees or lower for three consecutive hours.

Over the past two November’s, Bostonian’s have enjoyed long stretches of Indian Summer weather. The last two November’s have featured well above average temperatures in the Boston area. So far, more than a third of the way into the month, this has not been the case this year. Temperatures have averaged close to 2 degrees below average so far this month in Boston, and for most of the northeastern part of the country for that matter. This has been a stark change to the relentless warm autumn weather we’ve been experiencing this year.

With colder temperatures, comes the threat for wintry precipitation. Right on cue, many communities are seeing their first snowflakes this evening! Some communities north and west of Boston may even see a small accumulation! This won’t turn into anything serious, it’s actually a small disturbance riding along the divider between the cold air over us, and warmer air trying to move in. This small disturbance will intensify once it moves into the open Atlantic Ocean. This will act to buckle the jet stream and send a reinforcing shot of cold air tomorrow night into Wednesday.

I have often mentioned the jet stream acts as a garden hose. Think of when you were a kid and you picked up the garden hose and began shaking it to make big loops with ridges and troughs. This is how the jet stream in simplest terms behaves in our atmosphere! We’re currently in the trough (cold & wet). However, beginning Wednesday afternoon, the ridge (dry and warmer) will begin building into New England. However, as has been this case so far this November, this too will not last long!

A hybrid like storm will be developing off the southeast coast this week. This storm will begin tracking up the coast on Friday and begin to interact with an approaching cold front. At this point, it appears the brunt of this storm is going to pass just east of New England on Saturday. Once it passes our latitude, the front and the storm are going to phase and rapidly intensify this storm as it tracks into the Canadian Maritimes. This will once again buckle the jet stream allowing cold air to plunge back into New England on the back side of this storm for the second half of the upcoming weekend. There’s even an outside shot some of the cold air catches up with the departing moisture for a brief flip to snow up in the mountains of northern New England.

Come next week, more important changes are on the way to New England! Recent computer models are showing a very volatile weather pattern heading into Thanksgiving Day. Computer models have been very erratic in handling the rapidly evolving pattern. Latest data is showing arctic air charging towards New England with moisture nearby. Should these two weather systems merge at the right time, and right location, we could have some travel problems on our hands. Right now it’s only speculation. If further data increases the potential, I will be sure to let everyone know! At the very least, a sharp cold front looks to send temperatures plummeting on Thanksgiving Day and beyond.

All these changes could have major implications to our upcoming winter. Right now, the weather community is split 50/50 on what type of winter we’re going to experience. Half say warm and rainy, while the other half believes cold & snowy. I’m still reviewing last minute data before I post my official winter outlook one week from today! Earlier in the fall I was leaning warm & rainy. However, recent changes in the Pacific Ocean, combined with other important factors have me leaning the other way. I take many factors into account when comprising my winter forecast, much of which is following my intuition, despite what computer models are saying.

For instance, last winter computer models insisted the cold and snow were coming to New England. We waited and waited and waited, and nothing ever arrived. It was showing it, but when push came to shove, winter unloaded its fury out west, leaving us with one of the warmest and least snowiest winters on record for us here in Boston, and up and down the I95 corridor for that matter. This year, computer models are insisting warm weather is heading to New England. However, when the warm is supposed to be here, it’s still cold! Now, the big warm up for Thanksgiving week that computer models were depicting, is being replaced with colder temperatures and perhaps storminess. Again, nothing scientific about it, just a careful observation.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

If you are out and about tonight, don’t be surprised if you happen to see some snow flurries or even patchy light snow in some areas. Observations have been reporting most activity centered across the hilly terrain of central Massachusetts. However, weather guru himself Pete Lovasco reports flurries and light snow up in Gloucester! Over the next few hours, anyone could see their first flakes if you look out the window at the right time. Otherwise, expect mainly cloudy skies overnight, with lows mainly in the 30’s.

Tuesday should feature slightly milder temperatures, but with a brisk wind and mainly cloudy skies, it will feel colder than what it actually is. High temperatures should rebound into upper 40’s and low 50’s across the area.

Skies should clear tomorrow night and turn colder all over again. Lows will fall into the upper teens and 20’s across the region.

Wednesday will feature fairly tranquil weather conditions. As winds turn more southwesterly, expect slightly milder temperatures come afternoon. Pesky clouds may still blot out the sun at times.

Thursday and Friday should feature milder temperatures, with highs approaching 60 degrees both days. Everything is relative. Last year, we had a week with temperatures in the 70’s in November! Nevertheless, temperatures will be above average for the date, and a welcome change to the November chill we’ve been experiencing!

As mentioned above, a fast moving storm system will begin tracking up the coast later Friday and into Saturday. This storm may actually turn into somewhat of a nor’easter, especially if the center remains off the coast. Latest computer data has this storm now tracking slightly closer to the coast. Therefore, expect rain and winds to pick up especially along the coast along and inside of I95 corridor. The rain could fall heavily for a time the first half of Saturday then diminish during the afternoon. I don’t expect anything too severe, however an impactful storm may be heading our way for the first half of our weekend.

Expect windy and colder weather to arrive on Sunday, with a mixture of sun and fast moving stratocumulus clouds. Temperatures will be falling during the day from the 40’s dropping to the 30’s by sunset. Next week will start off cool & dry. I’m watching another storm for Thanksgiving Eve and into Thanksgiving day. Depending upon the exact track, this storm could bring either rain, snow or a mixture of both across the New England region.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post is scheduled one week from today on November 20th! This post will feature my official 2023-24 winter forecast for Boston and New England region. I will also have your all important travel forecast for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday! In the meantime, embrace the November chill…it may even feel like the holidays for once!

~Thanks for reading & be safe!~

Pete

Frost on The Pumpkin! 10/30/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Once again, we couldn’t get through a weekend without rain. This would make it 17 out of the last 20 weekends which featured rain! Mother Nature is sure squaring up the score compared to last year. If you recall, last year we experienced the complete opposite pattern, with 17 out of 20 dry weekends with no rain! As we move deeper into the season, the changes become more extreme. Saturday, much of New England basked in summertime temperatures! Boston tied a record for the date with a high temperature of 81 degrees! People were flocking to the beach and parks to enjoy one last fling of summertime warmth. As we all dreamed of possibly more summer like weather on the way for Sunday, a subtle cold front slipped through New England overnight Saturday, whisking summer away.

As we awoke on Sunday, the reality of the time of year and living in New England settled in. Northeast winds plummeted temperatures some 30 degrees colder than just the previous day. In addition, rain overspread the region from west to east, leading to a very raw, wet Sunday afternoon. It was a great day to spend indoors with friends & family by a fire! In fact, temperatures cooled so low, rain turned to wet snow in central & northern Maine away from the coast! Hard to believe, these areas experienced their first snowfall of the season, with some locations receiving 3 to 6″ of snow!

Snow in this part of New England is not uncommon this time of year. Much of northern Maine extends up into Canada, anyway. Therefore, cold temperatures and some snow is not unusual around Halloween. However, after such a warm stretch of weather, it was a surprise how quickly the seasons changed. Not to be left out, some parts of northern New Hampshire is also seeing their first snow of the young season!

Indeed, with the dramatic shift in temperatures, we are inching closer to winter! So far, this fall has been warmer than normal. Not record warm, but consistently warmer than average, especially nighttime lows. In fact, it still hasn’t fallen below 40 degrees in Boston. Many areas within I495 have not reported a frost as of yet. This is some 3 weeks behind schedule. However, I did receive a report from my sister Pam in the seacoast region of New Hampshire of their first frost of the season last Tuesday morning, the 24th!

Typically, peak fall foliage would be settling into Boston this week. While taking a quick drive around the area yesterday, fall foliage appeared to have awakened at the last minute! As expected, colors are not as vivid as some past years, but there are still pockets of beautiful colors to be had! It seems some trees have tolerated the excessive rainfall this past summer better than others. The red maples don’t seem as vibrant, but the yellows and oranges have some pop. We shall see. I have seen vibrant color appear out of nowhere at the last second. With frost coming this week, we could have a secondary peak this upcoming weekend as the cold eases. Despite not having any real cold nights this October, it seems temperatures were just cool enough to initiate the color change. It’s not too late in the city right through the first 10 days of November we can enjoy peak fall colors!

As I mentioned earlier, this autumn has been above average so far in much of New England. However, we still have November to go through to determine the three month average of September, October and November. November is a true transition month to winter. It’s similar to May being the seasonal transition month to summer. We all know how May can be! Some years, May can be very summer-like, with warm temperatures and early trips to the beach. However, other years, May can be cruel, with damp cold ocean winds.

November is similar. Some Novembers are sunny and warm. Just last year November featured endless days of Indian Summer. The month ended much warmer than normal with hardly any wintry weather to be found. This, in my opinion, set the tone for the winter. If you recall, Boston experienced one of its warmest and lest snowiest winters on record last year. I believe it was the second warmest, and 3rd least amount of snow. If you enjoy winter, it was a total bust! With it being a La Nina year, inland areas did better, but we’re talking well north and west of I495 & beyond. Otherwise, most storms were rain along the coast last winter.

Other years, November can turn quite wintry. It typically doesn’t snow much in Boston during November. However, about once every five years, the city does receive a wintry type storm. It’s not unprecedented to see a half a foot of snow some years across inland parts of Boston. Logan airport averages approximately 1.5″ of snow in November. Mild ocean temperatures can protect the immediate coastline from substantial snow in November. Inland locations can see more snow, being further away from the influence of the mild ocean. Most of November is typically not harsh. However, starting around Thanksgiving, winter can make its presence felt around here. Up north and higher terrain, winter weather is more common than not in November.

After a string of mild Novembers, I believe this November is going to be different. A cold front will move through New England tomorrow, on Halloween. This will prevent temperatures from warming up tomorrow. I will have my trick or treat forecast shortly. Temperatures will drop tomorrow night, with many locations falling to near 32 degrees or below by Wednesday morning. A storm will be developing at sea on Wednesday. Had this storm tracked closer to the coast, the potential would of been there for a real mess on Wednesday, even close to Boston! Latest indications are taking tracking this storm more easterly than northeast. This will keep the heaviest moisture east of us out to sea. However, there will be some upper level energy crossing the region on Wednesday. It wouldn’t shock me if some of us saw some wet snowflakes mixed with rain showers at some point Wednesday!

Overall, November is looking quite chilly to me. There will be some mild periods as there most often is. However, temperatures will be decidedly colder this November, than previous years. In addition, I’m expecting an active storm track near New England. This leads to the question, will we see snow this November in Boston? I’m very confident there is going to be one or two wintry events this year. As always, inland locations favor frozen precipitation. However, even here in Boston and along the coast, I do believe we have a higher than average chance at seeing some snow this November. Maybe even a couple inches.

Computer models have been hinting of a storm threat between November 7th and 10th. I can see on the weather charts the potential is there for an early season nor’easter. This does not mean all snow in Boston, but I can see interior locations such as the higher terrain of Worcester County receiving their first snowfall of the season. Even in Boston, if the storm takes the right track, there could be some snow as the storm departs and cold air wraps into the system. Thereafter, colder than normal temperatures should prevail for most of the month, with other opportunities for wintry precipitation.

This sudden pattern change has caught my attention. My official winter forecast won’t be posted until November 20th next month. However, I can tell you from now we are seeing certain atmospheric conditions setting up that has either never been observed before, or hasn’t in a very long time. Many signals are opposite from what they were last year. This could mean a much more snowier and colder winter on tap for us here in New England this year. They say we’re in a strong El Nino, but I have to tell you, the atmosphere is not responding in typical strong El Nino patterns. We’ve had nearly 20 named storms in the Atlantic basin this year. Absolutely unheard of in a strong El Nino. Strong El Nino’s prohibit tropical storm development due to strong westerly winds aloft, resulting in shearing thunderstorm development.

Changes in the Pacific Ocean temperatures can mean more cold air building across eastern Canada this year and spilling into New England than one would normally expect in a strong El Nino. It does appear as if there will be an active sub-tropical jet stream this winter tracking storms along the Gulf coast then up the eastern seaboard. This type of storm track could evolve into quite a stormy winter. The big question right now is if there will be enough cold air available as these storm track up the coast to produce snow. Last post I mentioned I was leaning towards a mild but snowier than last winter, but still below normal average in Boston. Now, I’m not too sure about that preliminary prediction. The potential is there for an old fashioned New England winter, with substantial snow. How much is yet to be determined. I will update everyone in my next post two weeks from today, and have my official winter forecast posted on November 20th. Stay tuned!

Just a quick weather history segment. It was three years ago today the region observed the first substantial snowfall of the season. In fact, it was a record snowfall for Boston, with between 4 and 6″ of snow falling across the city. Hard to believe we had to break out the shovels and plows the day before Halloween! We can see snow some years around Halloween, but many times it’s very wet and melts on contact. Not this storm. Very cold air was associated with this storm, and temperatures plummeted into the 20’s as the snow began to fall heavily. This allowed the snow to rapidly accumulate. There was little wind associated with the storm, so power outages and downed trees were minimal. I remember lots of snow clinging to the trees, which still had their leaves on them. Very cold temperatures persisted into Halloween the next day, with snow remaining on the ground, especially in shaded areas. Strangely, we seem to have snow in the forecast around Halloween more than Christmas time around here in recent years!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Well, today was another washout. No surprises there, just to expect the rain to dwindle overnight with leftover fog and drizzle. Later at night, skies will begin to clear. Low temperatures will mainly fall into the 40’s region wide. Leftover snow way up north will also slowly taper off. I’m sure it will be a winter wonderland when dawn breaks tomorrow in that region!

Halloween will feature some early morning clouds. These clouds will diminish yielding mostly sunny skies for the balance of the day. Temperatures will not respond, as cold air will be pressing in from the north. High temperatures will only be around 50 in Boston, but may not make it out of the 40’s across the Worcester hills. Halloween night will feature chilly to cold conditions. Trick or treat! Expect mainly clear skies and temperatures quickly falling into the 40’s, then 30’s after 9:00 pm. Temperatures will fall into the 20’s and low 30’s region wide by Wednesday morning. The only thing that may keep us a little warmer if some clouds show up earlier than expected.

Wednesday should feature more clouds than tomorrow. Happy November! As I mentioned earlier, a storm will miss us heading out to sea. However, some leftover upper level energy will need to spin through our region during the day. This may lead to some instability showers of rain or snow, depending upon your location! No accumulation is expected with this activity if by chance you see some snowflakes. It will be cold, with highs mainly in the 40’s.

I’m expecting clearing and cold weather Wednesday night, with many locations receiving a hard freeze, and the end of the growing season. If it doesn’t happen tomorrow night, it will Wednesday night, early Thursday morning. Temperatures should fall into the 20’s region wide, even the potential of a few upper teens in normally colder locations. Even Logan airport could drop to 32 degrees, which would be a few days ahead of average.

Cool weather will continue on Thursday, though temperatures should moderate back up close to 50 under mainly dry conditions.

A slight moderation under dry conditions will commence on Friday and may continue through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will slowly warm up to the mid 50’s on Friday, then lower 60’s both Saturday and Sunday. Conditions should mainly be dry. However, an approaching cold front may mean some showers approaching by late Sunday. Not sure about that just yet. Next week could get interesting as I mentioned above. It looks colder, and perhaps turning stormy?

As a reminder, daylight savings time ends this Saturday night, November 4th. Time to turn the clocks back one hour!

Well, that’s about it for today! My next post is scheduled two weeks from today on November 13th. However, if any type of winter storm threatens, I will be sure to update everyone a week from today. If no update, there will be no storm. In my next scheduled post, I will reveal more details on my upcoming winter forecast. I will also discuss how this winter may compare to past winters. I will also have a new weekly forecast. In the meantime, no need for snow shovels this Halloween, but break out the heavy jackets & winter coats! Enjoy!

~Wishing everyone a safe and Happy Halloween!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Still Mild…More Weekend Rain! 10/16/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. What once was looking to be a washout, turned into one of our driest weekends in many weeks, if not months! Saturday featured early morning sun, fading behind increasing clouds. Sunday featured early morning clouds, yielding to afternoon sunshine. Overall, it was a mild weekend, with highs generally in the lower 60’s, which is just about average for this time of year. After today, fair weather will return for a few days, but trouble lurks ahead for the upcoming weekend.Weekend Rain

This weekend was a welcome break to the incredibly wet summer & autumn we have been observing across much of the region. Many cities and towns across New England saw their wettest summer on record! It was also a cooler summer. Boston only reached 90 degrees a total of five times this past summer. This is well below the average of 14 times. While July was slightly above average temperatures, June & August were below.

Therefore, Boston experienced a cooler than average summer for the first time in about 6 years. We were due for a correction. The last two summers were scorchers, with 24 ninety degree days two years ago, then another 21 just last year! Our climate in Boston is not Washington D.C. is it like Caribou, Maine. We typically fall somewhere in between, though we can experience similar climates from each location at any given time.

Hard to believe we are already halfway through meteorological autumn! Also hard to believe how warm it’s been this autumn. While September was warm & wet, October so far has featured mild & drier weather patterns. While the summer was a bit cooler than average, it has not cooled off relative to average here in the fall. Many locations at least here in southern New England still have not experienced their first frost. In many locations, it hasn’t even fallen below 40 degrees as of yet. Typically, Boston suburbs would already of received their first frost on average by the first week of October. Boston typically sees its first frost by the third week of October.

It seems like a broken record for at least the past 8 years. We anticipate cool, crisp fall weather to arrive later in September, only for summer-like temperatures to continue unabated through October…and sometimes well into November as well. In fact, the last three Novembers has featured above average temperatures. Three years ago was very warm, two years ago closer to average but still above, and last November was again very warm, about 4 degrees above average. We shall see what this November brings. Right now it’s leaning warm again, but could be closer to average, if anything.

Similar to two years ago, the excessively wet summer and warm fall is altering  our fall foliage seasons! This is not a good combination for those who enjoy vivid fall colors arriving on time. Due to the extremely wet summer and early fall, the leaves are running approximately 2 weeks behind schedule. The heavy rainfall also has developed a fungus on the leaves, resulting in black tar disease, causing the leaves to turn brown or black, and fall off the trees. Awful!

In addition, the warm days and nights are also hindering the leaves to change colors. The warm temperatures has also extended the growing season much later than it normally would be this time of year. For an ideal foliage season, we would want near to slightly below average precipitation patterns, and normal summer temperatures, not too hot or cool. As September approaches, temperatures need to cool off at night! It doesn’t have to get cold, just chilly nights to remind the trees that it’s time to shut down for the upcoming winter. If it remains too warm, they still think it’s summer, and nutrients to the trees continue! So far, I would give this foliage season a 5 out of 10. Some nice pockets of color, but a lot of muted areas.

I’m concerned the leaves are going to remain on the trees well into November this year. Eventually, we’ll have a cold snap and the leaves are just going to turn brown and fall off the trees. As always, there will be pockets of beautiful color, no matter what the weather conditions. Some trees thrive in these conditions, while others not so much. The report up north is variable. Some pockets of bright colors, accented with muted browns and golds. It’s also up late up north. Typically, peak colors would of passed the White Mountain of New Hampshire by now, but reports continue to come in with only higher elevations past peak. Eventually, the color wave will arrive to the suburbs of Boston around the 4th week of October. On average, peak colors arrive in the city of Boston around Halloween time. For this year, I don’t expect peak colors until mid-November in Boston. I’m pretty sure we’ll have a killing freeze or a gale blow through before then that will strip the leaves down before actual peak arrives!

Speaking of winter, many friends & family have been asking me what this winter is going to be like! While my official forecast will not be posted until November 20th, I am gathering some ideas on what I think will unfold. Last year saw a third La Nina in a row in the Pacific. This was a classic La Nina which delivered cold & snowy conditions to the western part of of the country, and warm & dry patterns across the east. During late last spring and over the course of the summer, we transitioned to El Nino. Current computer data suggests this El Nino will continue to strengthen to a strong El Nino come December. Statistics show, Boston has never received an above average snowfall winter during a strong El Nino. With that being said, El Ninos come in different variations. There are many other atmospheric factors that also need to be considered that can alter a “typical” El Nino season.

At one point, last year looked like it could of been a cold & snowy winter. A sudden shift in the patterns brought severe winter conditions out west, while warm tranquil conditions arrived here in the east. This all began right after Christmas. At this moment, it’s simply still too early to determine how severe or mild our winter is going to be. Some computer models are showing the potential for quite a winter unfolding across the eastern part of the U.S. including here in southern New England. El Nino’s typically bring opposite conditions from La Nina’s. This means warm northwest, cold southeast. This cold pattern can sometimes include us here in southern New England, but not always. Sometimes, high latitude blocking is so strong in years like this, warm weather can actually come down from Canada, resulting in a warm winter in New England. A classic example of this was the winter of 2009-10. While the mid-Atlantic was receiving record snowstorms, it was a warm winter here in New England, with well below average snow.Comparing one year to another is called analogs. Sometimes this works to a tee. However, the state of our climate has changed so much over the past 20 years, this type of comparison is not weighted as much as in the past.

Some computer models are showing the exact opposite of last winter, which could make it interesting for us here in Boston. Others are focusing the rough weather to our south across the mid-Atlantic region. Most computer models are predicting a winter with above average precipitation across the gulf region then right up the Atlantic seaboard into southern New England. The question is whether we’ll have enough cold air available so some of this precipitation falls as snow. At the very least, I do believe we’re going to receive more snow than last winter. How much more is still the question. I will continue monitoring the evolving weather patterns over the next few weeks. I believe the patterns in November are going to determine how severe or mild our upcoming winter is going to be. Right now, both options are on the table. So stay tuned!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Look for considerable cloudiness and cool weather for the rest of your Monday. The atmosphere is a bit unstable behind a departing low pressure system way up in the Canadian Maritimes. Therefore, there may be a quick pop up shower or downpour early this evening. As the sun sets, skies should partially clear allowing for cool temperatures overnight. Low temperatures should still remain above frosty levels with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40’s across rural areas, and upper 40’s low 50’s in urban locations. Some deep interior cold spots may fall into the upper 30’s if skies were to clear.

One last spoke of energy may pinwheel down the coast Tuesday morning.  This may lead the chance of a few scattered showers across the region early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, expect variable clouds tomorrow, along with a few breaks of sun. Temperatures will still be on the coolish side with highs in the mid 50’s to low 60’s. Expect a chilly northerly breeze at times during the day.

Tuesday night should feature a few clouds, with lows dropping down into the low 40’s and low 50’s. Warmest in urban locations.

Expect mainly sunny skies and slightly warmer weather for both Wednesday and Thursday. Had we had a frost, you could consider it a touch of Indian Summer? Temperatures will be noticeably warmer, with highs between 65 and 70 degrees. Not bad for the middle of October!

An approaching frontal system will bring increasing clouds with a chance of showers Friday. It will become breezy and remain on the mild side. However with expected cloud clover and rain, temperatures will remain in the lower 60’s. I’m not expecting a washout on Friday, just some passing showers as it appears from now.

As this front approaches the east coast, a low pressure system will develop to our south. If this storm tracks northeast, it would evolve into a nor’easter type of storm. However, at this time, it appears that this storm is going to track northwest into central New England. With this type of track, expect southerly winds early Saturday shifting to southwest across southern New England. Also watch for heavy rain squalls and downpours through the first part of Saturday, transitioning to scattered showers by afternoon. Temperatures may start off mild, then cool off as during the afternoon as winds transport cooler air into the region from our southwest. This is an unusual way to transport cool air into the region, but it happens when storms take this kind of a track in these weather patterns. We actually saw this quite often last winter.

This storm will actually intensify as it merges with another system on Sunday. This means Sunday will feature blustery conditions with fast moving clouds across southern New England. There may also be some leftover scattered showers at anytime during the day. With more of a westerly wind, expect cooler temperatures to sweep into the region. If you’re planning to be up north, be prepared for late autumn early winter type of weather, with windy conditions and frequent rain showers across lower elevations, but snow showers across higher terrain above 3,500 ft.

This storm will slowly pull away from New England early next week. In its place, a sprawling area of high pressure will anchor itself across the eastern seaboard. While this may bring tranquil weather conditions, temperatures will be a bit on the cool side early on, with 50’s during the day and 30’s and low 40’s at night. Some suburban towns may actually experience first frosts early next week. Fair weather with warmer temperatures looks to continue into next weekend, but don’t hold me to that!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post is scheduled for Monday, October 30th. In this post, I will be going into more detail about my upcoming winter forecast. At this time, I will have more information to share with you. I will also review the month of October, and look into what November has in store for us. I will also have your Halloween forecast! In the meantime, enjoy the changing seasons, winter will be here before we know it!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

New Season…New Pattern? 9/25/23

Hello, friends! It’s been a while! I hope everyone enjoyed their, weekend! As has been the case most of the summer, the weekend was mostly a washout. This was especially true if you were located south of Boston heading towards New York City and the Mid Atlantic region. Tropical storm Ophelia developed off the southeast coast and soaked that region with torrential rains and flooding. This feature slowly moved up the coast, but was held at bay from fully entering New England courtesy of a strong high pressure anchored across the Canadian Maritimes. Eventually, the rains advanced into the Boston area, leading to a soggy & cool Sunday. Lingering moisture remains across southern New England today, with more occasional showers.

Hard to believe summer is officially over! Autumn silently arrived early Saturday morning at 2:50 AM. Many are asking, did summer ever arrive? I was expecting a wetter summer than last year, but I was not anticipating to this extent! Though I did mention way back in my summer forecast, “you will need to pick & choose your beach days this summer, there will not be as many as last summer.” We did have some nice days, but nothing to the extent of last summers “California like” climate.

Boston observed its second wettest summer on record, even exceeding the soggy summer of two years ago! Worcester smashed their all time wettest summer this year, as well as many other observation sites across New England. Unlike two years ago, this summer was much cooler! Boston only reached 90 degrees a total of five times, compared to 24 two years ago, and 21 last year. Boston typically sees 14 ninety degree days in an average summer.

I have mentioned this before, it’s the extremes that make the averages. We were due for a correction. Our climate is not as hot as Washington D.C. nor is it as cool as Caribou, Maine. However, due to our location, we can observe similar climate conditions as both those locations at any given time during the year.

It wasn’t as if it was cold this summer. Some even mentioned it was a hot summer! We may of hit 90 only five times, but the humidity levels were off the charts! We had many days in the 80’s with exceedingly high dew points. This made it feel very uncomfortable, leaving air conditioners humming most of the time. This is why looking back on weather records can be incredibly deceiving. Thirty years from now someone may be doing some research on what kind of weather Boston experienced in summer 2023, and see that we only had 5 ninety degree days and say, that must of been a very cool summer. Not quite! Actual temperature only tells half the story! Weather is relative to what we see in the moment. Our memories get skewed as the years pass.

Now that we’ve entered fall, many have been asking me what this winter will be like. Before we talk about winter, we still have to talk about when this rain is going to stop!!! I think I can speak for many, but I don’t ever recall such a wet summer in my life! And the statistics back me up. I believe the rainiest summer ever observed in Boston was back in 1955, quite a few years before I was born. That summer rainfall was aided by two significant tropical storms & hurricanes which brought excessive rainfall to the region. This year, the rain has been relentless from June 1st, all the way through the summer and now has persisted well into September.

So when can we expect a change? Well, I have some good news, and not so good news. The good news is that after today, I do believe at least a short term pattern change will begin starting tomorrow lasting at least into this upcoming weekend. I’m a little hesitant sounding the all clear signal for the weekend, as so many have gone bad this year. However, as of today, it does indeed appear looks quite splendid beginning tomorrow and lasting for good stretch of time. This pattern change will bring a ridge of high pressure building in from the west towards New England. This will promote sunny, mild days, and clear cool nights to start. However, as the high pressure builds offshore, a warmer southwesterly air flow may allow for even warmer temperatures to start working into New England by this weekend. It’s getting late for 90’s, but 70’s and low 80’s are not out of the question! The not so good news is we are in El Nino conditions this fall & winter, which typically means wet & cool patterns. So enjoy any dry & warm weather we receive, it may be brief and fleeting!

While all this is happening, a trough of low pressure will dig out west, bringing much colder conditions with the chance of some high elevation snowfall. This is not unusual for them, as winter tends to begin about this time of year out there. What is a bit unusual is the cold & stormy weather patterns that have persisted across the western part of the country for the past several years now. It was only last year when many ski resorts recorded anywhere between 50 and 60 feet of snow last winter! Are we starting off where we left off last year? It appears winter wants to start early across the west once again this year. Whether it continues into this winter is yet to be determined. My early call would be to say no, it will not be like last year. For this fall & upcoming winter, we have a moderate to strong El Nino developing. This is the complete opposite of last winter, where we had a La Nina in place. El Nino’s typical patterns bring warm winters to the northwest part of the country, and cold winters southeast. So early arrival of winter out west may be a lag effect from last winter, until full El Nino patterns kick in later this fall.

For us hear in New England, many factors come into play in determining what kind of winter where in for this year. El Nino comes in different flavors. In general, weaker El Nino’s bring snowy & cold weather to the Boston area. In fact, some of Boston’s biggest winters have occurred in El Nino years. However, if El Nino becomes too strong, winters tend to be milder with more rainstorms than snowstorms. At this moment, El Nino is borderline moderate strength. It’s going to be interesting to see how strong it becomes over the next couple months. El Nino winters typically kick in around Christmas time here in Boston, and become stronger heading into January & February and sometimes lingering into March. There are a couple other strong signals I’m keeping a close eye on for this upcoming winter, all of which may have significant impacts on our upcoming winter season. I will be discussing these signals in more detail in the coming weeks.

Before winter arrives, we still have the rest of September, October and November. It’s been a warm and wet September. I believe October will see a continuation of mild periods of weather, but with a stronger push of autumn weather unlike last year. In other words, more seasonal oscillation with the clash of air masses. I see the potential for a strong autumn storm this year which could come in the form of a hybrid tropical storm or nor’easter.

We should also see some chilly outbreaks, with frost & freezes visiting many communities including the Boston area much earlier than last fall. November should feature close to average temperatures, with the potential of seeing some early season snowfall this year. Last November was very warm, when temperatures averaged 4 to 6 degrees above normal in Boston. It’s still a ways off. If El Nino strengthens further, November could end up warmer. I’ll monitor the patterns closely and update everyone as more information arrives.

Now time for our first fall foliage report. Unfortunately, the excessive rainfall and warm temperatures are not ideal conditions for vibrant fall foliage. In fact, we’ve received so much rain trees have plenty of nutrients and are in no hurry to start changing colors. In addition, temperatures have been very warm this September, further helping to keep the leaves green. Nevertheless, the seasons will change, and the process is about to begin. Recent reports are indicating leaves are beginning to change in the Green Mountains of Vermont, as well as the higher elevations of the White Mountains. There has also been reports of some color arriving in parts of interior Maine. With the recent cooler nights, it won’t take long for the leaves to reach peak color in these regions. Autumn always arrives earlier than the rest of New England here, with peak color arriving between October 1st and the 10th. With all the rain we’ve received, I’m forecasting muted colors this autumn. However, there can be some last second surprises, depending on whether we see some frosty overnight temperatures. If you plan on going on a foliage trip, there’s always going to be some trees that overachieve, bringing the vibrant colors we are accustomed to here in New England.

Here in the Boston area, peak foliage doesn’t arrive until around Halloween extending into the first week of November. We have a ways to go, so October temperatures will be critical on whether we see bright or muted colors this year. If it remains too warm, foliage will be delayed until the first or second week of November, and colors will be muted. This has been the trend past couple years. I will monitor and keep everyone posted with the latest trends.

I will say this, foliage season is different from interior to coastal locations. Interior and high terrain see leaves change more quickly, with a shorter peak period. Here along the coast, trees change more slowly, and can last at least a couple weeks longer. Last couple years foliage was brighter across the interior of New England, and muted along the coast. Maybe this year will be the opposite? We shall see soon enough!

Here is your latest outdoor weekly autumn forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect showers to linger this afternoon and into the early evening. Not ideal for an evening walk, but it I’m not expecting any torrential downpours by any means. It will remain on the cool side with highs only near 60.

Watch for early evening showers to slowly diminish and end tonight. It will be damp through midnight, then expect a drying trend as we head towards morning. Temperatures will be cool overnight, but nothing extreme for this time of year. Lows will mainly be in the 40’s and 50’s region wide.

Look for improving weather for your Tuesday. In fact, watch for an extended period of dry and sunny days starting tomorrow and possibly stretching all the way into this upcoming weekend! Temperatures will be pleasant with highs generally in the 60’s Tuesday through Thursday, and lows mainly in the 40’s. Some colder rural locations may fall into the upper 30’s. This is perfect weather for our fall foliage to get started!

As we head into the weekend, temperatures will begin to warm up into the low 70’s, with possibly even warmer weather at the start of next week. Another low pressure will pass southeast of New England late Friday into early Saturday. Current trends keep this storm far enough offshore to not bring any rainfall to our area. If it decides to wobble slightly closer, there may be a brief period of rain or showers in some locations overnight Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, I’m expecting clear sailing through the weekend. Enjoy!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post will be dependent on my work schedule. If time permits, I will post an updated blog on October 9th, unless a significant storm threatens. I plan on discussing our autumn pattern, and give more details on the upcoming winter. I will also have a new fall foliage report. In the meantime, whatever the new pattern may bring, it can’t be any worse than the one we just went through!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Big Happy Birthday wishes to my nephew Nick…today!

Touch of Fall? 8/21/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! I thought Saturday was going to be a better day, but it actually turned out cloudy and cool. Sunday was better, with mainly sunny skies and warm temperatures. However, as been the case the entire summer, the sky had a hazy look to it due to Canadian wildfire smoke. We just can’t catch a break this summer. If it’s not torrential downpours, it’s smoky skies from the fires up in Canada. Now after Friday, we can add tornadoes to this bizarre summer season! My cousin April from California also reported a 5.1 earthquake in the town of Ojai, where her brother and sister lives. On top of that, they had a tropical storm warning from once Hurricane Hillary! So things could be worse!

*I appreciate everyone’s understanding during this busy period. I hope to resume regular posts this fall.

Torrential downpours, smoky skies from wildfires, zero heat waves…and now we can add a tornado outbreak to the summer 2023 resume! If you haven’t heard, a strong cold front crossing southern New England developed a strong line of severe thunderstorms last Friday morning. This front was pushing into a environment which had significant instability and an unusual high amount of wind shear for our area. The result was a severe weather outbreak which extended from the suburbs of Providence, Rhode Island, northeast into Massachusetts which included the towns of North Attleborough, Stoughton, then northeast through Weymouth. The sky turned incredibly dark with loud thunder here in West Roxbury, but fortunately the worst of the storm passed just to my south.

In this swath, there were 4 confirmed tornado touchdowns, all of which significant damage occurred. The tornado in Johnston, Rhode Island was a an EF2 with 115 mph winds! The others were EF0 and EF1 which featured winds of between 85 and 105 mph. There was even authentic video footage of a tornado crossing Rt295 in Rhode Island! This tornado actually lifted a car up in the air and spun it several times before dumping it back onto the highway! Terrifying! It was a miracle the woman driving the car escaped with only minor injuries. I’m sure she would make for a great guest speaker at a local weather conference someday!

Massachusetts averages approximately two tornadoes per year. So far, this year there have been 7 confirmed twisters!

I anticipated a wetter summer this year compared to last, but had no idea it was going to be this wet! Many cities and towns across southern New England are closing in on either a top 5 wettest summer or wettest summer ever recorded! Many friends and families are crying uncle, and want to know what are the factors behind this miserable summer!

I wish I had a clear answer to let everyone know! However, the only clear answer I can say is that…it’s complicated! With all that being said, I could see trouble brewing from way back last February. While the west was getting crushed with a record cold & snowy winter, the east coast was basking in one of the warmest and least snowiest winters on record. Parts of interior New England and around the Great Lakes were somewhere in between. Mild yes, but some areas received plenty of snowfall! This is classic La Nina patterns where interior locations receive much more snowfall than coastal regions.

For people who live along the I95 corridor from Virginia to Boston, we were left out of the fun, with winter barely showing up. I feel somewhat fortunate living in Boston compared to cities further south down the coast. At least we saw SOME snow here in Boston. It wasn’t much, but there was enough to shovel a few times. Further south in cities such as New York, Philadelphia and Washington D.C. these places only received a trace to 2″ of snow the entire winter!

Regardless, it was the winter that wasn’t. The only exception I could see was the freak of nature cold snap that swept through New England on February 4th. Temperatures plummeted in Boston to their coldest temperatures since 1957. Low temperatures in the city ranged from minus 10 to minus 12 below zero. Windchill was ridiculously low at minus 38 degrees below zero. Almost unheard of, even for Boston. Even though temperatures warmed up quickly following this cold snap, the damage had been done. With readings this low, peach crops in New England were destroyed. In addition, rose bushes and hydrangea blooms were either severely delayed or killed by the cold.

While all this was happening, the atmosphere was undergoing some major changes. A phenomenon called “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” or SST began to develop during February, which works in tandem with Greenland Blocking. I could see this beginning to take shape in February and March and mentioned my concerns for the upcoming summer. It was too late to bring heavy snow to Boston, but could foul up our spring and early summer patterns. Timing could not of been any worse. While we made it through April and May with pleasant spring weather, things began to unravel as we headed towards June. High latitude blocking became established over Greenland. What this is in simple terms, is high pressure building across Greenland to our north. This buckles the jet stream, forcing it further south than normal, and keeps us cool & unsettled.

This allowed troughs of low pressure to begin charging towards New England from southern Canada. These troughs interacted with a active sub tropical jet stream which injected energy into cold fronts leading to a very active energized cold frontal passages this summer. These cold fronts have brought well above normal amounts of rain this summer and kept the heat suppressed t our south. I have mentioned several times this summer, our winter pattern finally arrived in June! Unfortunately for us, these cold fronts kept pin wheeeling down from southern Canada beginning in June, and have not stopped since! Hence, the blog title “Wheel of Miss Fortune” made back in July.

Why did this happen is unknown. What I do know is Mother Nature tends to balance things out. We were due for a correction of 90 degree days & hot summers. It hasn’t been a cool summer, we just haven’t received as many 90 degree days as we normally do. However, the past two summers we received nearly double what we normally see. Our climate is not Washington D.C. here. It was similar to Washington D.C. the past couple summers. This year, it’s been similar to somewhere from northern Maine. We typically receive approximately 14 ninety degree days in an average summer. Last year we received 21 of them, and 24 the year before. This year, we have only observed 4 so far, with no heat waves recorded in Boston. There has been a couple heat waves in the suburbs, but not at Logan Airport. For the record, I was expecting approximately 14 days this summer, but did mention it was going to be a much different summer than last year, with more rain to contend with.

Now, after a very unsettled summer, I’m talking fall already! Yes, I am. Hard to believe September is right around the corner! I mentioned in my last post, if this pattern were to somehow persist into the fall and winter, we could be looking at a historic type of winter depending upon many other factors yet to be determined. However, there are some early signs pointing towards a much different winter that we saw last year. We shall see in the coming weeks.

Hate to break the bad news to everyone, but we are now just one month away from the autumnal equinox. While it’s still officially summer, meteorological autumn begins in less than two weeks. The days are beginning to shorten, and even some leaves are beginning to change in some spots. Could an early autumn be on the way this year? I believe I say this nearly every year only to have an endless summer keep going through what seems like Thanksgiving in recent years. Yes, there are some signs pointing to a cooler regime this year. In my opinion, it’s all dependent on how strong the emerging El Nino becomes. If it strengthens too much, summer time warmth may linger deep into fall as it has in recent years.

However, if it does not, and other factors come into play, we may see a traditional autumn here in New England, with cool to mild days and cool crisp nights. If this pattern were to unfold, we could see a spectacular fall foliage season this year, especially here in southern New England which has been pretty much a dud past couple seasons.

In the short term, a cold front passing through the region this afternoon is going to introduce yet another cool and dry air mass to New England this week. Because the days are beginning to shorten, temperatures can drop a few degrees more than a month or two ago. Therefore, cool air masses are beginning to feel more fall-like, especially during the longer nights. If you wake up early enough the next few days, you’ll know what I’m talking about! Many locations, perhaps even into the city of Boston temperatures will drop in to the 50’s, with crisp feel at sunrise.

How about beach and boating this week? Expect changeable conditions this week. If you like them cool, best beach days appear to be Tuesday and Wednesday, then again on Sunday. Gusty winds will make it feel chilly, but protected areas in the sun will be warm enough. Boaters beware for shifting winds to the northeast later this evening into tomorrow, with choppy seas especially east facing locations. Wednesday and Thursday should be okay for boating. Friday looks inclement once again, with showers likely which may linger into early Saturday. Sunday looks fair but brisk, with more northeast winds.

Now time for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80’s. An approaching cold front will spark off some scattered evening showers and possibly a thunderstorm in some locations, especially south of Boston. Not everyone will receive a shower, but the potential is there in case your plans bring you outdoors.

After the front clears, watch for clearing skies towards midnight, and cooler temperatures to sweep in overnight. But morning, dew point temperatures will be down in the low 50’s, with air temperatures near 60.

Tuesday and Wednesday should feature partly sunny skies along with a bit of a breeze. Temperatures will struggle to warm up into the mid to upper 70’s. Watch for clear and chilly weather at night with lows mainly in the 50’s both Tuesday and Wednesday nights. There will be a crisp feel to the air!

Expect a sunny start on Thursday but with clouds increasing during the afternoon. Temperatures may make a run at 80 depending upon how much sun we receive. Rain will be moving in sometime overnight Thursday and continue into Friday. At this point, Friday looks to be rainy, as leftover moisture from Hillary gets absorbed into an approaching cold front. It does not look torrential at this moment, but I would keep an eye on it just in case. It seems every front approaching the Boston area this summer suddenly picks up steam, and overachieves with expexting rainfall amounts. The fact that this could have leftover tropical moisture infused in it should raise some red flags. Some towns this summer such as Andover have really taken it to the chin, with multiple rounds of flooding.

Latest computer models guidance keeps this system progressive. Therefore, it appears that this system will be pushing off the coast in time for this weekend. However, much like last Saturday, there still could be some lingering moisture in the form of clouds and perhaps some light showers on Saturday. It will also be cooler. As of right now it doesn’t look like an optimal beach day, but I would monitor future forecasts just in case. It could also clear out and be a sunny day. Another push of cool and dry air will arrive on Sunday, with a brisk northeast wind and high temperatures more like September than August. Expect temperatures to be in the low 70’s with mainly sunny skies. An offshore hurricane next week may continue the brisk northeast winds and cooler than normal temperatures along the coast to round out the month of August.

One other interest of note. Keep an eye out for the second full month this month, also known as the “Blue Moon” on August 31st. If an offshore storm comes close enough with strong onshore winds, it may be enough to monitor coastal flooding along east facing locations. Something to monitor as we move forward.

Well, that’s about it for now my friends! My next blog is scheduled for Monday, September 4th, Labor Day. Depending upon my plans and weather conditions, this may or may not happen. If a stormy weather threatens, I will do my best to update everyone. If fair weather patterns persist, I may wait until the following week. Whatever day it falls on, you can be sure I’m following the what’s going on with our weather! In my next update, I plan on posting my preliminary fall forecast, as well as my first fall foliage outlook! I told you fall was arriving quickly! In the meantime, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, enjoy the remaining time we have of summer!

~Happy Birthday to my niece, Alex!~ August 28th

Thanks for reading! & stay safe!

Pete

Mid-Summer Break! 7/31/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! As has been the case most of this summer, the weekend featured rain…and a lot of it! The wild weather began last Thursday, when a seemingly benign frontal passage suddenly intensified over the Boston area, dumping torrential downpours in a short period of time. A brick chimney was struck by lightning, toppling it to the ground in Boston’s South End neighborhood. It was a miracle nobody was severely injured or killed.

Friday cleared and turned into a beautiful beach day, with sunny skies and temperatures reaching the low 90’s. Saturday started off with cloudy skies, but some hazy sun broke through late morning into the early afternoon. Some communities experienced a quick moving downpour around midday, which quickly evaporated when it hit the hot pavement. This was just a prelude to the main event. Later in the afternoon, the skies turned black, as a strong cold front approached the area. I checked the radar, and saw an intense squall line approaching. Torrential downpours arrived, along with gusty winds and frequent lightning & thunder.

According to the National Weather Service Boston, the squall line produced an EF1 tornado in the town of Foxborough some 30 miles south of Boston. This was enough to frighten many folks and cause considerable tree damage as winds swirled to 105 MPH on the Fujita tornado scale. As the storm swirled over Boston, it produced record rainfall at Logan Airport, when just over 3″ was recorded in just a little over one hour! This was good enough to make this the rainiest July 29th ever recorded in Boston! This storm also help catapult us into the second rainiest July’s on record with close to 10 1/2″ of rain. This beats out the incredibly wet July from just two years ago!

Are we having fun yet? The seemingly endless barrage of rainfall this summer is the exact opposite of last summer in every way. While storms fizzled on their approach to Boston last summer, this summer they’re intensifying on their approach. This had led to the frequent flash flood warnings and record amounts of rainfall. A cruel joke played by Mother Nature, or just evening the score? Of course there’s no clear cut answer to that question…but the results are uncanny.

As I mentioned earlier in the season, I was confident a rainier summer was on the way, but had no idea to what extent. I also mentioned many times the factors keeping our winter so mild & benign, collapsed at the start of June. From that point forward, it’s been a full on assault, with a winter pattern here in summer! How can this happen, you ask? Expert meteorologists may know how it happened, but nobody really knows why it happened. Mother Nature is a proponent for equality…so there’s that!

So here we are, at the astronomic midway point to summer. From here on, days will begin to get noticeably shorter as autumn approaches. Some may even feel a touch of autumn at dawn the next several mornings. Before you pull out the bow & arrows, I have some good news for everyone!  After a month long siege of dew point temperatures greater than 65 degrees, we’re finally getting a break! Eric Fisher, WBZ meteorologist says Boston experienced its longest stretch of high humidity levels on record!

Though it’s been muggy, it hasn’t necessarily been hot. I measure how hot the summer is by how many 90 degree days we observe. Of course, it’s all relative. What may seem like pleasant summer weather to some, is an absolute steam bath for others! Many people could care less whether we hit 90 or 89…it’s felt hot! And it has been a warmer than normal July. Temperatures are running about two degrees warmer than average this month. This balances out the two degrees below average of June. So as of today, we’re running about even for the summer. In a typical summer, Boston would receive approximately 14 ninety degree days. So far we have only seen three days this summer! Yes, this is much less than past several years!

My final forecast called for between 14 and 17 days of 90 degree days in Boston this summer. With it being August 1st tomorrow, I would need a late rally to see that number verify. Yet, there’s still time. I recall a few years back September featured five 90 degree days with a bonafide mid-month heat wave! With a strong El Nino incoming, odds would favor a warmer than normal September this year. However, long range computer models are somewhat at odds with each other, seeing a cooler September on the way.

I mentioned earlier I have some good news to pass along for those who love summer. While we’re on the backside of summer, this does not mean summer is over! We still have a solid 6 weeks of summer weather. Unfortunately, long range computer models have become less reliable in these changing weather patterns. In La Nina years, you could count on computer models being more accurate predicting warmer and drier patterns. However, now that we have entered El Nino, weather patterns have turned more volatile, as the mean storm track has migrated more towards the east coast.

The new monthly outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center for August points to cooler than normal weather persisting here in New England. This would imply the trough (cool & wet) that has persisted across New England beginning in June is going to continue into August. Does this mean no more hot weather? No, it does not. I’m still expecting brief bursts of heat this month, but with the emphasis on brief. I highly doubt we see anything like August of last year, when Boston observed its hottest July and August on record. I believe we received 11 ninety degree days last August, even a 100 degree reading! Right now, I’m expecting temperatures to average slightly below normal in much of New England this August, with fewer 90 degree readings than in recent years. Right now, I’m going with 3 or 4 days, but I can easily see even less. So far, it’s been a very wet and somewhat cool summer. If August turns out cooler and wetter than normal, it will mark the exclamation point for this summer! It began with smoky skies form wildfires in Canada, then the rain, fog and humidity!

As for rainfall, let’s just keep the trend going from previous patterns this summer and call for wetter than normal patterns to continue. Not as much rain as July, but still more than the typical 3.5″ we typically receive. I will say this, if this pattern were to continue into this winter, it could be one for the ages. However, if you love snow, these patterns are best when they establish themselves just before winter arrives sometime in November is best. In our case, the pattern may be raining itself out before winter, leaving us with another tranquil winter with not much storm activity. Who knows? There’s no rhyme or reason to it!

Now for your weekly beach & boating forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Temperatures should hover near to slightly below seasonal levels, mainly between 76 and 82 degrees. There will be a string of nice beach days running from today through Thursday. Don’t be shocked if there’s an isolated sprinkle or shower, but I do not see any torrential downpours as we saw last week during this time period. Thereafter, a cold front will be approaching New England on Friday. At this time, there will be an uptick in humidity, and there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms crossing the region throughout the day.

This front should be progressive so Saturday should turn into a nice day for the beach. Sunday is iffy at this point. Computer models have been waffling with a system to our south. If I were a betting man, I would say this storm will likely track closer to New England and bring increasing clouds and easterly winds, at the very least, If it tracks any closer we would need to introduce the chance of showers. Would not surprise me in the very least the way things have gone this summer. At the same time, do not cancel any plans until this time frame come into focus. It still could change, and be a decent day. Boating looks good through Thursday. A cold front will be approaching the waters on Friday, and with it will bring showers & thunderstorms. An offshore storm on Sunday will need to be monitored for choppy seas and rain. Boating is not recommended on Friday or Sunday.

Time for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. The biggest change this week will be a break from the relentless humidity we experienced in July. Expect dew point temperatures to hover in the 50’s, which is very comfortable for this time of the year.

Expect partly sunny skies the rest of your Monday. Temperatures will be warm, with reading a couple degrees either side of 80. There may be a brief evening sprinkle or shower in the area, but I wouldn’t let that stop you from taking an evening walk in the park or neighborhood.

Skies will clear overnight, with temperatures falling into the 50’s in rural areas, to low 60’s in urban locations.

Tuesday will be similar to today, partly sunny with highs between 76 and 82 degrees. Tuesday night will be fair and cool. Comfortable for sleeping.

Wednesday could be the pick of the week! Expect plenty of sun and slightly warmer temperatures. A perfect beach day! Temperatures will mainly be between 80 to 82 degrees.

While Thursday may begin with plenty of sun, watch for increasing cloudiness during the day. It will be warmer a slightly more humid, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80’s.

A front will be approaching New England Thursday night into Friday. Right now computer models are showing a line of showers & thunderstorms crossing the region. It will continue to be on the warm side, with highs in the low to mid 80’s. Keep in mind, I’m not expecting a complete wash-out, just expect some rain and possibly downpours at some point during the day. There may even be some breaks of sun from time to time.

After this system moves offshore, expect partly sunny skies on Saturday with highs in the mid 80’s. This would be a change in the persistent pattern of rainy Saturday’s!

As I mentioned above, Sunday is iffy at this point. I would love to say we’re in the clear with beautiful weather continuing. However, the trough will be located near the east coast. It does appear as if another piece of energy will dive towards the coast and try to develop another storm system. Earlier, it looked like this storm would really ramp up and bring a washout to the region. Then this backed off yesterday yielding a fine day. However, latest computer runs are slowly trying to bring this system closer to New England. Therefore, I’m going with increasing clouds on Sunday, if not totally cloudy. Winds could turn easterly and bring in cool, damp weather. If the storm tracks closer than currently anticipated, then indeed a washout would be the likely outcome. If it tracks further offshore, then fair weather would continue from Saturday. If you have any outdoor plans, I would monitor the forecast closely later this week, as changes are likely to occur.

Well that’s about it for now, friends! My next post is scheduled for August 14th. In that update I will take a look at our weather patterns for the remainder of August, and take a peek into the beginning of September. It will be interesting whether we see a cooler fall this year, or will the warmth continue as it has for several years now. I will also take a look at our hurricane season. So far, fairly quiet. In the meantime, it’s nice to receive a break from the humidity…now how about the rain?

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Waves of Rain….7/10/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a half and half weekend, weather-wise. Saturday continued the streak of summery days from last week, with sunny skies and very warm to hot temperatures. Hottest weather has been over the interior, with some communities recording 4 straight days of 90 degree heat! It’s been a different story along the immediate coast, with pesky sea-breezes preventing temperatures from reaching 90. In fact, Logan Airport has yet to register a 90 degree day this summer! Travel 5 miles inland and many neighborhoods and towns observed their first 90 degree days of the summer. This happens in the winter too. It’s colder away from the ocean in the winter. In the summer, it’s always hotter. Sunday featured more clouds, but no rain was reported in eastern Massachusetts. Again, it was a different story across western Massachusetts and up in Vermont, where a stalled frontal boundary brought flooding rains to this region.

After a glorious Memorial Day weekend, this summer has been a huge bust so far! Memorial weekend?? Can anyone even remember what the weather was like that weekend? Let me refresh your memory. From a few days out, it was looking like another Memorial Day weekend washout. However, a last second shift brought three days of deep blue skies and brilliant sunshine to much of the region. It wasn’t particularly hot, but it was warm enough to enjoy being outdoors. Little did we know what lied ahead!

A couple weeks ago I spoke of the Wheel of Miss-Fortune. People keep asking me what is this wheel I’m talking about, and when is it going to stop raining! This was a term Barry Burbank used to explain an upper level low pressure stalled over the northeastern states spinning counter-clockwise. Once these low pressure systems became established, they would pin wheel periods of inclement weather across eastern Massachusetts. In early spring, this could be anything from periods of wet snow/sleet showers to plain rain showers, fog and drizzle. In later spring, thunderstorms could occur with small hail. This is due to a pocket of very cold air aloft associated with these upper level low pressure systems, resulting in the inclement weather including small hail sometimes.

Typically, these upper level low pressure systems stick around for approximately 3 to 5 days, then lift north into the Canadian Maritimes. No harm no foul, right? Not this year! Once June arrived, our long awaited winter pattern finally began to settle in. Computer models kept showing that it was coming, only to keep pushing back to February, March, then April…but it never arrived. May was a stellar month, with hardly no rain, and temperatures a couple of degrees above average. Many believed the long awaited winter pattern was gone, and we dodged a bullet. Just as the calendar flipped to June, all the fun & games started up.

Oh boy. The Greenland Block suddenly became established, the North Atlantic Oscillation suddenly went negative. High pressure began building across the western part of the country with warm & dry weather, complete opposite of this past winter. Shortly thereafter, deep troughs of low pressure (cool & wet) began digging into the eastern part of the U.S. especially here in New England. Cold front after cold front diving in from eastern Canada towards New England. Rather than sweeping off the coast, these fronts would stall across New England, bringing weeks of inclement weather to our region. Yes, the long awaited winter pattern finally showed up at the beginning of June, and has yet to relinquish its grip!

I feel the frustration! The weather over the fourth was less than ideal. Though some places lucked out and had a few decent stretches, Cape Cod in particular, other places were washed out Sunday through Tuesday. What awful timing! Many fireworks were delayed or canceled. It appeared the worst of the weather had passed Boston. Prospects were looking up for the Pops concert and fireworks extravaganza on the esplanade. Just when you thought they were in the clear, a fog bank rolled in off the ocean and essentially destroyed the fireworks show. I had mentioned I was expecting more rain this summer than last year, but this has become ridiculous. So far, it’s been the exact opposite of last summer. Last summer, we couldn’t by a drop of rain. This summer, rain always seems to find its way into the forecast.

My summer forecast called for a reversal to this pattern come mid-July. Well, we are nearly at mid-July, and so far I do not see any end to our waves of rain this summer. In my last post I mentioned the summer could go one of two ways. I picked the optimistic hotter and dryer route, but now I’m having my doubts. It’s July 10th, and Boston has yet to register a 90 degree day. My forecast called for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days this summer.

Since the ground is water-logged with so much rainfall, it’s going to take an awfully hot air-mass to evaporate the saturated ground. Once that happens, a ridge of high pressure needs to build near Bermuda, also known as the “Bermuda High”. This high pressure was large and well established last summer, sending multiple heat waves up into New England. This high pressure was so strong, it prevented cold fronts from entering New England, keeping us hot & dry for the majority of the summer.

Yet, there’s still reason to be optimistic. I mentioned similarities to summer 2015 to this one. In that summer, Boston didn’t see its first 90 degree reading until July 14th. The city ended up with 14 ninety degree days that summer. An impressive recovery. Similar to this summer, we had a strengthening El Nino that year. This resulted in a record warm autumn, with well above normal temperatures the theme through December. In fact, the region saw low 70’s temperatures on Christmas Day that year! However, the warm endgame to summer and fall is not set in stone. El Ninos come in different flavors. No two are exactly the same. We have to watch this carefully moving into late summer and early fall. Depending on the strength and position, weak El Nino’s have historically brought snowy winters to Boston. However, if El Nino strengthens too much, it typically brings warm winters to Boston with below average snow.

The two summers may have featured El Ninos, but something feels different to me this year. Boston finally broke an outrageous streak of 17 straight months recording above normal temperatures. Despite record warm ocean temperatures, June ended up 2 degrees below average here in Boston. Big question moving forward, will the hot weather patterns re-establish itself moving forward later this month into August? As much as I want my forecast to verify, it appears I may of used my “warm weather” card one too many times! After several way above average summers in a row, it seems that maybe Boston is do for a “correction” this summer with how many 90 degree days we observe. Boston typically receives 14 ninety degree days on average each summer. Last summer we saw 21 and the summer before that a whopping 24 days!

What do I think? I’m afraid this rainy pattern wants to continue for the rest of July and into August. I do believe it’s going heat up, so we should start seeing more 90’s showing up even into Boston. However, it’s going to take a very hot stretch to reach average this year in Boston, especially with the slow start. We shall see. Computer models are all over the place in terms of temperatures. Some say get the air conditioners ready, while others say get ready for an early fall! Some of the more reliable computer models are pointing out a continuation of this relentless rain well into August. This does not mean rain everyday. However, it does appear there will be waves of rain moving through New England just about every three to five days for the foreseeable future. This means there will be beach days, you just have to choose your days carefully. It’s not automatic like last year.

Speaking of beach days, here’s my latest beach and boating forecast for this week. Expect best beach days to be tomorrow and Wednesday, perhaps extending into Thursday down the Cape. Thereafter, expect unsettled conditions to arrive on Friday and continue through Sunday. I’m not expecting all day rain here, just typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. However, as I mentioned earlier with this summer pattern, expect most everyone to see rain at one point or another this weekend. Temperatures will be warm to borderline hot this week and into the weekend, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80’s. Some interior towns may reach 90, especially Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Best boating weather will be similar to the beach weather, with Tuesday and Wednesday being good days for boating. Thereafter, a southwest airflow will develop. which typically brings choppy seas to south coastal locations. Add the chance for thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, you will need to pick your time wisely. Best weather in patterns like this is typically morning time.

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. After a rainy day today, exoect clearing skies overnight, with lows in the 60’s. Watch for patchy ground fog developing overnight.

Any early fog should burn off by 10 AM tomorrow leading to a brighter day, though not without some billowy clouds building during the day. I’m not expecting rain tomorrow. It will be warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s across the area.

Tuesday night will be a fine mid summer’s night, with fair skies and lows mainly in the 60’s, perhaps low 70’s in urban areas.

Wednesday should be a great beach day, with sunny skies and very warm temperatures. Expect temperatures to warm up to between 85 and 92 degrees. There’s an outside chance Boston may observe its first 90 degree day of the summer on Wednesday. Look for fair and warm weather Wednesday night.

Another slow moving frontal boundary will be approaching New England beginning on Thursday and lasting through Friday and much of the upcoming weekend. This means our weather is going to turn unsettled once again. As mentioned above, I’m not expecting any washouts through the period. However, there will be waves of rain moving through the region throughout this period. We may make it without rain on Thursday, especially down on Cape Cod. Thereafter, expect impulses of rain to move through the region from Friday throughout this upcoming weekend. It’s difficult timing these impulses, but expect to get wet from time to time. In between, we may see some sunny breaks with a warm tropical feel to the air.

I’m hoping for not too much rain this Friday evening! I will be attending the grand re-opening atop of the Great Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Ma.! It has been closed for two years for renovations. I believe it was planned to be an outdoor event, so I’m hoping they will have a tent set up to keep attendees dry! I’m looking forward to seeing the weather guru himself, Jim Cantore! You know what they say about Jim, if he’s in your region doing live broadcast with The Weather Channel, seek shelter! You know a big storm is about to hit! So we’ll most likely have a severe thunderstorm warning that evening! I believe longtime Boston meteorologist Tim Kelley will also be attending among many other familiar faces for sure. If any of my weather enthusiast or amateur meteorologist will be attending, I hope to see you there!

Well, that’s about it for now! I’m planning to write my next post on Monday, July 24th. However, work schedule and other commitments may prevent this from happening. If it does, I will do my best to post as soon as possible. In my next post, I will be taking a look at the weather patterns for the rest of this summer. I will also take a look at what our hurricane season is up to. I will also have your new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, let’s hope the waves of rain turn into waves of heat sooner rather than later!

~Stay dry & safe, everyone!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Wheel of Miss-Fortune…6/26/27

Hello! It’s been a while! I hope everyone is well & enjoyed your weekend! Overall, it turned out to be a decent weekend across the region. This is especially true for those living in eastern areas close to the ocean. Yes, fog & showers had to run their course Saturday morning, but after that passed through, many enjoyed a rather summery weekend. Sunday was the warmer of the two days with many communities reaching the mid to upper 80’s. Add the tropical dew point temperatures surging into the region and we were talking borderline sizzler! If anything, it may of turned into the first real beach day in an overall cool & unsettled June.

Retired WBZ channel 4 Boston meteorologist Barry Burbank used to name these unsettled weather patterns we’ve been stuck in “Wheel of Miss-Fortune.” Indeed, if you look at the satellite loop across the northeastern part of the country, you would see a giant whirlpool of clouds spinning counter-clockwise in a whirlpool type fashion. Once one spoke of energy rotates through, another is right on its heels to take its place. In between, there has been some sunny breaks, even a decent day or two. For many folks, this pattern has gone on far too long! Many friends and family members keep asking when is this pattern going to change!

It reminds me quite a bit hearing me complaining about the warm temperatures in winter and lack of snow! Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts have been watching this pattern evolve since way back in March. This large vortex of inclement weather has been slowly rotating across the country since March. It held off, giving us a decent April, then a fantastic May. Some believed we were going to waltz right into summer without any repercussions. Once June arrived, the pattern abruptly changed. The long awaited winter pattern had finally arrived to the east coast! Call it what you will, “Greenland Block,” “Rex Block,” “Omega Block,” “Negative NAO” it all means pretty much the same for New England…inclement and cool. In fact, this June is going to go down as the first below average month in Boston since January of 2022, a good 16 moths ago!

With the Fourth of July holiday rapidly approaching, many want to know if the “Wheel of Miss-Fortune” is going to pin-wheel its way out of New England! As  of today, we continue to be stuck in this repetitive inclement pattern. However, I have also noted that it’s one of those weird patterns where they keep forecasting showers & thunderstorms every day, and the coast doesn’t see a drop of rain! This has not been the case across parts of the interior and New Hampshire where the air is more unstable. I was monitoring the torrential downpours which prompted flash flood warnings and road closures today.

For this week, we are stuck in this pattern with a large upper level low pressure spinning counter-clockwise to our west. This places southern New England in a southerly flow, bring high dew point temperatures from Florida right up into New England. Timing these spokes of energy is quite difficult. Computer models are having a difficult time forecasting where the rain is going to fall, and what time. For the overnight, computer models are showing a large area of showers and thunderstorms approaching eastern after 3:00 AM continuing into rush hour tomorrow. We may dry out a bit Friday and Saturday later this week. If we get enough sunshine, temperatures may spike up into the mid 80’s, similar to yesterday. A stronger cold front may approach the region on Sunday, bringing a stronger chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms. How strong and widespread is yet to be determined. It could be one of those cases when much of the day remains dry with a late afternoon summer thunderstorm.

Now for the good news. Latest computer model runs have shown a stronger push of dry air arriving on Monday and becoming well established for the 4th of July itself! What this means is that my confidence is increasing that we may see 3 out of 4 nice days over the long 4th of July holiday weekend! Who knows, if we’re lucky, Sunday may not be half bad either.I’m not sure about Sunday just yet, but I believe Monday and Tuesday will be nice days. There may be some early showers down the Cape on Monday, but latest computer models show this rain moving off the coast to salvage a nice day.

Beyond that, we begin our summer season in earnest here in New England. I mentioned in my first summer forecast not to expect a repeat of last summer. I still believe this is true. While I’m not expecting the record rains of two summers ago, I’m expecting more chances of rain throughout July, August and September. Last summer, the heat waited until after July 4th to surge into New England. I’m expecting a similar scenario this summer, but perhaps not as fierce. If you recall, last July and August made up two of the hottest summer months on record in Boston. Two years ago Boston received 24 ninety degree days. Last year we saw 21 days. This was the first back to back summers of 20+ ninety degree days observed here in Boston. Long-term average here in Boston is 14 days.

For this summer, we’re going to go in one of two ways. The first way would not be a popular route for summer worshipers! This route would be a continuation of this blocking pattern with cooler than normal temperatures and wetter than normal conditions well into July and perhaps even August. This would lead to a very frustrating summer for beach goers, and would be very similar to the summer of 2009, our last cooler than average summer here in Boston. I believe we only had about 4 ninety degree days that summer! It was a real clunker! We’re actually way over-due for a summer like that. However, in a warming climate, I find it difficult to occur, but certainly not out of the question.

The second route the summer can take is one that is much more appeasing to summer lovers. The summer pattern would kick in shortly after the 4th and settle in with a nice mixture of more than enough hot days along with ample rainfall for lawns and gardens. When all said and done we would see a fairly typical summer around here, perhaps slightly warmer with between 14 and 17 ninety degree days in Boston, with near average rainfall.

For the record, my original forecast published back in May is the second option. I’m not making any changes to the original forecast this year. I’m going for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days this summer in Boston. With an incoming El Nino, it actually looks very similar to summer 2015. In that summer, Boston had zero 90 degree days up until July 14th. Thereafter, Boston received 14 of them! This looks good to me!

Here’s your beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10 for beach weather. Expect foggy mornings along the coast, burning off to hazy sunshine, only to lead to the chance of a few scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. I’m not expecting any washouts throughout the week. The best chance of any organized rain will be on Sunday. Before then, Friday and Saturday look to be real nice beach weather, with warm temperatures and a good amount of sun, especially along the coast. Thereafter, Monday is looking good say after 10:00 AM and the Fourth is looking splendid at this time! For boaters, keep an eye to the sky for possible thunderstorms early tomorrow, then again later in the day. There may be more activity Wednesday & Sunday, though much of time may be dry.

Now time for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week the same as beach and boating a 7 out of 10. Not bad for a rainy pattern!

Expect a band of showers & thunderstorms to move through the area very late tonight and early tomorrow. Thunderstorms have been weakening on their approach to the ocean as of late. This may happen again, or we could be awoken by an early morning boomer!  It will be muggy, with lows around 70.

Early morning showers will give way to partly sunny skies on Tuesday. Any sunshine may destabilize the air, resulting in more scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, though not all will receive them. Temperatures should top off around 80. Watch for similar weather for your Wednesday, though without the morning showers.

For the period Thursday through Saturday, I’m expecting beach weather! It won’t be perfect, you may be fighting off fog and haze down the Cape each morning, but from what I’m looking at right now, it’s looking like pretty good beach weather. It will be warm and muggy, with high temperatures between 75 and 85 degrees. Just be aware of scattered a scattered thunderstorm which is always a possibility in this warm and muggy air-mass. A front approaching later Saturday may spark off a late afternoon thunderstorm, especially across the interior.

A stronger cold front will be approaching the region on Sunday. If it’s going to rain this weekend, Sunday looks to be the best chance, though timing is still questionable. If you’re down the Cape, it may remain dry for most of the day. At this point, it appears a band of showers and thunderstorms will be traversing the state, moving from west to east, arriving in eastern Massachusetts during the afternoon and evening. Right now, computer models are whisking this activity off the coast by Monday morning. This is a rather abrupt change from earlier runs that showed the rain lingering well into Monday. Let’s remain on the optimistic side and plan for any early morning rain to end on Monday leading to clearing skies and warm temperatures.

The early outlook for the 4th of July calls for mainly sunny and warm temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. I still can’t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm in this air-mass, but the majority of the region looks to remain dry. I give it a thumbs up for fireworks displays for both Monday evening and Tuesday evening. Enjoy!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post is scheduled for Monday, July 10th. In that post I plan on discussing the patterns for the rest of July and take a look how El Nino may influence our hurricane season. I’ll also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, let’s hope the wheel spins us some fortune!

~Wishing everyone a safe & happy 4th of July holiday weekend!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Rather cool & Unsettled… 6/5/23

Hello! Welcome to June! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a weekend more typical of early March than early June. Awful! After may towns reached  low 90’s late last week, temperatures plummeted on Saturday, where may locations were a good 40 degrees colder! Sunday was not better, with cold northeast winds and periods of drizzle. In typical New England fashion, it was beach and AC’s weather on Friday, followed immediately by heavy sweaters and turning on the heat this weekend!

Several friends & family members asked me what the heck just happened? My answer was that it’s simply still too early to sustain summer-like weather around here. With the cold ocean to our east, Canada to our north, we’re just a wind shift away from dramatic cool-down. Latent heating and cooling also plays a significant role in early season weather patterns for both fall & spring. In spring, the land heats up more quickly than the oceans, resulting in very unstable weather patterns. Cool air collects across the Canadian Maritimes and surge into New England as it did this past weekend, delaying any thoughts of an early summer. In autumn, the exact opposite can occur, with mild weather extending deeper into the fall than one would think, keeping the cold and snow away from coastal New England many times through November.

After a remarkable May, the pattern has turned decidedly unsettled here in June. Is this surprising? No! My friends, we just witnessed the sunniest May ever recorded in Boston! In addition, May was also the 4th sunniest month ever recorded here in Boston. (statistic provided by Eric Fisher). It figures the one day we had rain in May was on my nieces college graduation! Sorry Nicole! So it’s not a surprise we observed a bit of a snap back to reality here at the beginning of June. It’s New England after all, it can’t stay sunny and dry forever!

Otherwise, it was pretty much days of endless sunshine and mild temperatures. Notice how I said mild temperatures and not warm. The excessive sunshine was accompanied by extremely dry weather with very low dew points. This led to some unusually cold nights in May, with several nights of suburban frost. Regardless, I believe May still finished with above average temperatures here in Boston. I believe this would make it the last 15 out of 16 months above normal in Boston. And the one month that was below average (last September) was just barely at that.

Was I surprised at the dramatic flip here in June? Yes and no. As I have mentioned many times, this time of the year can be exceptionally deceptive. Yes, they call it meteorological summer, but in Mother Nature’s book, we’re still in spring. The official start of summer does not arrive until June 21st. This means we are still susceptible to cool and rainy periods here in new England well into the month. With this being New England, unusual weather may occur at anytime of the year, regardless. With all that being said, I’m still fascinated how patterns can turn on a dime, resulting in a completely different feel to the air from one day to the next. Many times it leaves one saying, “did that even just happen?”

Yes, it did happen, and has happened before! Not to panic anyone, but sometimes when we receive a brief bust of early heat that is followed by a rush of cool unsettled weather, the summer never recovers. It sometimes remains cool & unsettled for the balance of the season. Am I expecting this to be a repetitive pattern this summer, or is there a chance of this happening? There’s always a chance. However, by no means am I expecting this pattern to persist for the rest of June, let alone the entire summer.

I would not panic just yet thinking the summer is going to be a dud. There are some signs the second half of June will feature plenty of warm to hot days. The summer pattern has yet to establish itself.

My summer forecast posted two weeks ago calls for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days here in Boston this summer. It also mentioned if you are expecting a repeat of last summer’s “California like” pattern, to not get your hopes up. Already, many locations have seen more rain that the entire summer last year, here in the first few days of June. While I’m expecting a cooler and wetter summer this year, I’m still expecting plenty of summery weather. As a reminder, anything over 14 ninety degree days would be a hotter than normal summer. Right now, I’m thinking slightly above that, so somewhat hotter than normal is what I’m going for at this moment. Last year, we received 21 days and the year before that we had 24! If anything, it’s looking like more of a typical summer than anything else. This may seem like a rainy summer, but any summer compared to last year endless droughts will seem like a wet summer. Still, there may be some folks who may be unhappy with the rainy weather at times. My only hope is when it does rain, it happens more on weekdays rather than weekends.

Now for your weekly outdoor beach & boating forecast. While not a complete washout, this week does not look ideal for outdoor beach and boating across much of New England. I would rate it a 4 out of 10. Look for best days for the beach to be tomorrow, then possibly again this weekend. Watch for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, most especially Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will be warmest tomorrow, then again this upcoming weekend. It’s all relative on what you perceive is warm. Could it be seasonable for a day or two? Yes, seasonable temperatures this time of year is low to mid 70’s. However, there will be many days which fall below this threshold, with upper 60’s being more common. Best boating days typically coincide with best beach days. Keep an eye to the sky from Wednesday through Friday, with building clouds and afternoon showers & thunderstorms.

Here’s your weekly outdoor early summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Today was gray and cool, with drizzle and showers at times. The weather will be more changeable this week, with sunny periods along with unsettled times. Best weather conditions will be in the AM with unsettled weather during mid to late afternoon.

Expect low clouds and drizzle to persist into the night, with low temperatures holding in the low to mid 50’s.

Tuesday will be one of the best days of the week, with sunshine burning off the early low clouds. Temperatures will respond with highs warming up to the lower to mid 70’s. There air will be somewhat unstable, so there is a chance of a few scattered afternoon and evening showers. In addition, wildfire smoke from Nova Scotia will once again spread over our skies. This will give the sky a hazy look, with the slight scent of smoke to the air! If it’s not the rain it’s the smoke!

Any early evening showers will diminish tomorrow evening, leaving partly cloudy skies and col temperatures. You will not need the heat nor the AC tomorrow night.

Watch for early morning sun for the period Wednesday through Friday. This will be followed by building cumulus clouds with the chance of afternoon and evening showers & thunderstorms each day. Highest chances will be Wednesday and Thursday with diminishing chance on Friday.

As the upper level low pressure moves east on Saturday, there may be a window of opportunity for a warmer, sunnier day, with high temperatures in the upper 70’s.

Questions arise once again for Sunday, as another upper level low pressure may develop across New England. If this delays in happening, Sunday could also be a nice day. However, there’s an equal chance the inclement weather arrives sooner, bringing with it the chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms which may persist into Monday. Thereafter, there are some signs of a warmer weather pattern arriving as we head towards the middle of June.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next weather blog is scheduled for Monday, June 19th. Wow, it will be the 4th before we know it! In that post I will be updating my final summer forecast at the summer solstice. There will be no more changes thereafter. In the meantime, let’s get this cool & unsettled weather out of the way now, so we can welcome the official start of summer in two weeks!

~Happy Birthday to my sister Pam!~ One week from today!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Memorial Day Weekend: Trend is Your Friend! 5/22/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a classic 50/50 proposition in regards to our weather. Saturday started off dry, but turned rainy by midday. The rest of Saturday into Saturday night was a washout, with heavy downpours and localized street flooding. Timing was not ideal, though I learned most graduation ceremonies escaped the heavy rain by just minutes! Congratulations to my niece Nicole who graduated from Bentley University! Congratulations to all other graduates & best of luck with future endeavors! Timing was not ideal for folks who attended the Taylor Swift event. It was a complete deluge from start to finish down at Gillette Stadium. From reports that I read, the soaking rains did not diminish the energy level from this dynamic performer! Give lots of credit to her, and the people who attended the concert for making the best out of a soggy scenario!Fair weather and warm temperatures returned on Sunday, making for a much better venue for the last performance.

Time is limited today, so I’m going to focus on the preliminary summer forecast & the Memorial Day weekend outlook.

My title may say the trend is our friend, but this was not the same sentiment just yesterday! I have to admit, looking at computer models yesterday, I was very concerned of a repeat of the Memorial Day massacre of 2021. Who remembers the three day washout that year? In some ways, the weather pattern is quite similar to that year. Back in 2021, there was a storm meandering off the southeast coastline. Computer models were waffling back & forth whether the storm was going to move up the coast lashing New England with strong winds and heavy rains, or remain out to sea. Well, as the weekend drew closer, it became more apparent that a late season three day Nor’easter was going to foul up the Memorial Day weekend festivities. Similar to a winter storm, the cyclone arrived and stalled off our coast, sending bands of heavy rain and gusty winds across much of the region. I’ll never forget the storms departure was timed perfectly at the very end of Memorial Day itself. While my sister & brother were driving home from the Cape, the sun broke through clouds, as the storm headed east.

Could it be deja-vu all over again? Well, believe it or not, the pattern is eerily similar. In fact, yesterday’s computer models were showing a very similar set up to 2021. However, today’s computer models backed off from the stormy outlook for Memorial weekend. In fact, today’s guidance is now showing a mainly dry weekend along with somewhat of warming trend. I don’t see any hot weather, but we could be flirting with 80 degrees on Sunday. Depending on how close the storm gets on Monday, it could be just as warm on the holiday itself. We still have to monitor this situation. If the storm wobbles any closer on Monday, it would introduce at the very least a sea-breeze along the coast. This would keep temperatures cooler along coastal locations. However, if the storm remains far enough south of us, we would enjoy more of a land breeze, with temperatures near 80 degrees. As of right now, Saturday and Sunday look like fine late spring days, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 70’s on Saturday and near 80 on Sunday.

The Memorial holiday weekend marks the unofficial start of summer for many. Meteorological summer officially begins on June 1st and runs for three months until August 31st. Not only here in New England, but for most of the country for that matter. Of course folks who live in the southern part of our country enjoy summer weather earlier. It typically takes until the start of June for sustained warm weather to become more dominant in the northern parts of the country, including us here in New England. Sometimes, cool unsettled conditions can persist deep into June, especially in coastal areas of New England. Real summer heat typically awaits until the official start of summer on the summer solstice on June 20th.

In some respect, we have seen more extreme weather patterns the past few summers than during winter. We have seen everything from extreme heat, flooding rains to extreme drought. In contrast, winter has been quite benign, with no sustained cold or heavy snow. Meanwhile, summer’s continue to get hotter, with higher amounts of humidity. Here in Boston, the last cooler than normal summer was way back in 2009! i measure how hot a summer is by the number of 90 degree days we observe. Two summers ago we received a whopping 24 days! Last summer was almost as hot with 22 days. Last summer also saw the mercury eclipse 100 degrees twice in the city.

So what can we expect for summer 2023 in our region? For one, we are transitioning from a La Nina to El Nino this summer. This typically means a cooler and wetter summer for Boston. However, with a warming climate we are in, you can pretty much throw away those analogs you see comparing summers of today from back 30 / 40 years ago. No matter how hard the atmosphere tries to show cool, it always ends up warmer!

Much like the past several years, let’s start off conservative and go for a warmer than normal summer, but not quite as hot as the previous two. On average, Boston receives approximately 14 ninety degree days in a typical summer. At this moment, I’m calling for between 14 and 17 ninety degree days in the city. On my final summer forecast near the summer solstice, I may adjust this number up or down, depending on pattern trends. Last year was extremely tricky! We had zero 90 degree days through the end of June, but we ended up with 22 for the season! This was in large part for one of the hottest July / August duo on record! I’m expecting something similar this year, with a bit of a slow start, then a formidable recovery the deeper we progress into summer, though less intense than last year.

If you are expecting a rain-less summer again like last summer…you may be somewhat disappointed. I wouldn’t build any arks just yet, but we are going to experience much more rain this summer compared to last year. Anything more than last year is going to seem like a lot. In reality, I’m only expecting near average precipitation this summer. This means we should see around 3 to 4″ of rain each month, mostly derived from afternoon and evening thunderstorms. We’ll see how this all turns out. When you average it all out. it may turn out to be a fairly typical summer around here for both temperature and precipitation, though I can’t guarantee no surprises!

As I have done in the past, I will have a final update at the summer solstice. I’m sure there will be some surprises and changes to this forecast!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect fair skies overnight and cool temperatures, with lows mainly in the 40’s. The sky continues to feature a hazy look due to the prevailing winds bringing smoke into new England from the Alberta, Canadian wildfires. It seems like we’ve been dealing with smoky skies for several weeks now! My friend Scott Dunlop on Twitter and Facebook has captured some amazing photos of the sun recently from Connecticut! As the sun sets, the smoky skies give it a pinkish or reddish glow. Amazing!

Tuesday should feature more smoky or hazy skies. With winds blowing onshore, temperatures will be held down along the coast, with highs only in the low to mid 60’s. Temperatures should reach the low 70’s as you travel 30 miles inland.

Expect fair and cool weather again tomorrow night, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

As winds turn southwest, watch for a warmer day on Wednesday, with plenty of sun and highs in the upper 70’s. A sharp cold front will be slicing through New England Wednesday evening bringing with it a chance of a few light showers or sprinkles. Behind that, winds will once again turn more northerly with cooler air rushing back into New England.

After a chilly start, expect mainly sunny skies and cool temperatures for your Thursday, with highs mainly in the 60’s.

From what I see at this moment, it looks like mainly sunny skies with a warming trend from the period Friday through Sunday. If you’re thinking beach, Sunday may be the best day for that, with sunny skies and highs near 80. Friday and Saturday look good too, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70’s.

If there’s any questionable weather for the upcoming weekend, it may be on the holiday itself. It may end up being just like Sunday, with sunny skies and warm temperatures. I would give it a 85% chance of this scenario panning out. However, there’s still a small risk the ocean storm to our south creeps closer than anticipated, this would introduce onshore winds, and perhaps some clouds. There would be a remote chance of some showers, but I’m not expecting this scenario at this current moment. Of course things could change, so please monitor local forecasts for the latest outlook for Monday. For right now, I’m taking the optimistic road and calling for a solid Memorial Day weekend for most of the region to enjoy.

Well, that’s about it for now! Next time we speak will be well into meteorological summer on Monday, June 5th. In that post, I will review the month of May and have an outlook for what we can expect for June. I will also share any new updates I have for our summer patterns. In the meantime, please keep in mind the real meaning of Memorial Day. Remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice to help bring us the freedom we enjoy today. It’s also a time to gather with friends and family to remember loved ones who are no longer with us today.

~Stay safe & enjoy the holiday!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete