The Beauty of May…5/8/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a spectacular May weekend across the region. Saturday featured near 100% of the possible sunshine with light winds. Temperatures responded into the mid to upper 70’s. If anything, the weather was even better on Sunday! Once again, hardly a cloud in the sky, light winds, and temperatures feeling more June-like than early May with some communities reaching 80 degrees. This, coming off a very shaky start to May last week.

It happens nearly every year about this time. Once May hits, people want instant summer. Yes, in some parts of the country this is the case. However, here in New England, May is still a true spring month. This means we can still experience inclement weather at times, with chilly temperatures. These sluggish weather patterns can sometimes persist into June. May is a true transition month, and is changeable one year to the next. Some May’s are downright cold and wet, while other warm and dry. From what I can see, this May looks to be a combination of the two. Last week was cold & wet, this week is warm & dry. Look for these oscillating patterns to continue for the balance of the month leading to a near average month in both precipitation and temperatures.

As my title states, we are enjoying the beauty of May this week. This time of the year, it’s all about the wind direction. Last week featured many days with onshore winds blowing in from off of the Atlantic. This typically means chilly temperatures, low clouds, fog & drizzle. Sound familiar? This week will feature mainly offshore winds. This is a warmer, dryer weather pattern for the Boston area and much of New England for that matter.

With that being said, an area of low pressure will pass south of New England tomorrow. Most of the main impacts of this storm will miss us to the south. However, it will pass close enough to turn winds onshore tomorrow, bringing cooler temperatures to eastern Massachusetts. Once this storm passes east, temperatures will rebound and be quite warm for the balance of the week.

Overall, I would rate May high on the list for enjoyable months here in Boston. Not too hot, not too cool. You also have to be impressed with all the beautiful colors May has to offer! While nothing quite beats the autumn colors here in New England, May features its own version of stunning colors! From the deep greens of fresh grass, to stunning reds and yellows and purple flowers, spring is the season of awakening, new life and new beginnings. Add cobalt blue skies to the mix, and we have a spring extravaganza of color! It’s the opposite of autumn, but brings its own majestic beauty!

Speaking of new life, where are we standing with green up? Well, here in the Boston area, we are actually nearing the end of this years green up season. Overall, it looks like everything arrived fairly close to average times. With the warm spell during mid April in conjunction with the very warm winter, it looks like it was running about a 7 to 10 days ahead of schedule this year. Leaves are typically fully bloomed on about May 10th, which looks about right this year. Mowing season in Boston, on average, runs from May 1st to October 31st. Last I checked, mowing season is well under way.

The further north you live, the slower the process. It won’t be for another week or two before everything is in full bloom across northern New England, and not until Memorial Day or even early June across the higher terrain! This part of New England is still susceptible to frost at night, so no tender planting just yet! In fact, even locations in southern New England outside of urban areas are also still susceptible to frost. A good rule of thumb is Memorial Day weekend to plant the tomatoes. I remember a few years ago frost warnings in many locations late in May. Don’t let the recent warm temperatures fool you, it can still get cold at night!

Hard to believe we are 70% through meteorological spring. June 1st marks the beginning of meteorological summer. Local meteorologist and horticulturist Dave Epstein tweeted out an interesting piece of information. The period of May 5th to August 5th is known as solar summer. During this period, we experience the most daylight out of the entire year. The longest day peaks right in the middle of this bell curve on the first day of summer, which is on June June 21st. Thereafter, the days will begin to shorten, Very slowly at first, but begins to increase the second half of July and especially August.

Before we talk summer, I wanted to write a quick wrap up of our past winter. May 10th marks the end of the latest date snow has been recorded in Boston. After this date, it’s pretty safe to say no more snow in Boston! This will be brief, as there wasn’t much of a winter to speak of. In fact, it was the one of the least snowiest and warmest on record here in Boston. It was the winter that never was. The extremely warm end to October and first half of November set the tone. Winter never recovered from there. A brief cold snap brought colder temperatures for a change around Christmas, only to have spring temperatures return for New year’s and basically the remainder of the winter. The remarkable aspect of this winter was how consistently warm the pattern remained. It was an active winter, with many disturbances bringing “white rain” here in Boston, which is snow that falls, but melts as soon as it hits the ground. Temperatures were consistently well above freezing when it snowed, so nothing could accumulate. It was a different story across interior New England and especially the ski resorts. Oddly enough, these locations were just cold enough to receive near average snowfall. A massive March storm brought heavy rain to Boston, but up to 4 ft of snow across the higher terrain of New England. Another odd event occurred on February 4th, when Boston observed its coldest since 1957, when the low temperature dropped to 10 below zero. The cold snap was brief, and no snow accompanied the bitter blast.

I would give my winter forecast a B+ this year. I was calling for a mild winter with below average snowfall from the get go. I even downgraded the preliminary thoughts at the winter solstice. However, that still wasn’t even enough, as the winter couldn’t even muster the meager numbers I had forecast. Overall, I would rate the winter a 2 out of 10 on severity index.

Moving onto summer. My official preliminary summer forecast will be posted two weeks from today! I have been watching the patterns closely, and have some preliminary thoughts I would like to share with you. First, it’s still early yet, so these thoughts will likely change. Early indications are calling for a slightly cooler summer than the past several. However, I have played this game before, only to ramp up my numbers at the summer solstice update. With a warming climate, it seems every summer has been hotter than normal. Indeed, I believe the last cooler than normal summer we have seen here in Boston was way back in 2009. Saying it may be cooler than the past two summers is not saying much. Each of the last two summers has been some of the hottest summers on record here in Boston. At this point, I’m not forecasting a cooler than normal summer, just maybe a bit cooler than the last two. We may not hit 90 degrees twenty times this summer, but may still come close.My official number of 90 degree days will be posted om May 23rd with my summer outlook.

Precipitation is still very much inconclusive. I can almost bet the bank it will not be as dry as last summer. However, there’s no strong signal that it will be a wet summer either, Periods of drought may persist this summer, punctuated by wet episodes. Right now, I’m leaning towards average summer rainfall across the region. It’s a no win situation, as even just average summer precipitation will seem like a “wet” summer compared to last year. As we all know, it’s all relative. Having beautiful weather over the Memorial Day, Fourth of July and Labor Day weekends goes a long way with many folks as how they remember the summer. Showers & thunderstorms occurring late at night only to clear out before dawn is the best of both worlds. Rainy days over the weekends is not ideal, to say the least. It’s important for the long wave pattern to establish a “groove” early on, bringing fronts through during weekdays and evenings, only to clear out in time for weekends. Needless to say, it’s going to rain more this summer than last, we will have to adjust accordingly.

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10!

Expect a mixture of sun and puffy cumulus clouds for the rest of your Monday afternoon and evening. It will be a very pleasant evening for a walk in the park or neighborhood. Watch for temperatures to be in the mid 70’s this afternoon, only slowly cooling off this evening. Overnight looks mainly fair and comfortable, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

Look for changeable weather conditions for your Tuesday. A back door cold front will push from east to west during the morning. This will change wind direction to northeast, and bring cooler air in off of the ocean. Therefore, expect temperatures to be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler tomorrow than today. I’m not expecting any rainfall, just a wind shift. A sprinkle can’t be ruled out with any change of air mass.

As I mentioned earlier in my update, some interior locations will turn quite chilly tomorrow night, with lows dropping back into the 30’s with a chance of scattered frost in some communities. Otherwise, temperatures will fall into the 40’s across urban areas such as the City of Boston. All under fair skies.

Here’s the real good news. Winds will shift offshore once again for Wednesday through Friday, with mainly sunny skies and temperatures responding back up into the mid to upper 70’s, some communities reaching 80 degrees! May weather at its best!

There may be a brief shower Friday night in response to a cool front slicing through the area. This will make this weekend slightly cooler, but still above normal for the time of year. Expect mainly sunny skies for both Saturday and on Mother’s Day with highs mainly in the lower 70’s each day. Enjoy! The tranquil weather pattern should continue well into next week.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next blog is scheduled for two weeks from today, on May 23rd. At that time, I will posting my preliminary summer forecast! I will also have your Memorial Day weekend outlook. Wow, how time flies! In the meantime, enjoy the beauty of May, the heat of summer is nearly upon us!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

~Happy Birthday to my brother John!~ (May 11th)

April…Being April! 4/24/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! While Saturday was generally on the dry side, the rain moved in late evening, and Sunday was a complete washout! It was also much cooler than what it’s been, with temperatures struggling to reach the low 50’s. Believe it or not, the region needed the rain. After a fairly wet winter, early spring has been on the dry side, with brush fires flaring up across the region. Overall, it was a good weekend to stay indoors for a change, perhaps catching up on a good book or your favorite movie!

As mentioned above, the water was a welcome sight for many. Not only local firefighters, but also the spring vegetation beginning to blossom across the region. This is an important period in the spring timetable when copious amounts of rainfall is a good thing. With the burst of warm weather we enjoyed in mid-April, green-up began in earnest, with the grass turning green, trees blooming, and flowers making their annual appearance. It almost goes without saying, but rainfall this time of year is a very important element in helping all these spring blossoms get off to a strong start. Thank goodness we typically receive a good amount of rainfall around here during springtime.

As mentioned above, we are on our way to leaf-out and summer vegetation. However, as in most years, there are always a couple hurdles we must cross until we arrive to the finish line! This year appears to be no different. After our brief interlude with summer last week, temperatures have cooled back down to seasonal levels, if not a bit below! This is a good reminder that summer begins on June 20th, not April 20th! We needed the brief warm up to get the lawns green and begin the process of leaf-out.

On average, the process begins around April 20th in the Boston area, when many trees begin to flower. About 7 to 10 days later, the flower gives way to small leaves. These baby leaves will give way to larger more mature leaves and the process is mostly complete by mid-May. Temperatures most definitely play a role in this process. Back in 2012, temperatures were so warm, trees began leaf-out process in early April! In cold springs, it can be as late late May! With the warm surge last week, this year is slightly ahead of schedule, but nothing out of the ordinary.

I was speaking with my sister Pam about this last week, and she mentioned how much further along we were in green-up down here in Boston compared to where she lives in New Hampshire. Absolutely. The further north you live, the longer it takes for leaf-out. In fact, it may not be until late May until everything blooms up there, and even mid-June in high terrain locations. Temperatures are generally colder, and solar radiation is slightly less strong than southern areas. In cooler years, leaves can begin changing as early as late August up north, leaving only a few months summer season!

As I mentioned earlier, receiving sustained warm weather around here in early spring can be a challenge some years. I have mentioned this many times before, our climate here in New England is not for the faint of heart! Generally speaking, it’s a rather pleasant climate. We typically do not experience the natural disasters such as severe tornadoes, hurricanes or earthquakes other parts of the country experience. With that being said, we have our moments! On occasion, winters can be quite fierce, with excessive amounts of snowfall in any one given location. It can also be bitter cold for extended periods of time, along with high winds. Combine all these three factors together, and many folks moving here from other parts of the country take a hard pass.

Thankfully not every winter brings these conditions! Some years, such is this past winter, mild weather with little snow is the main theme. Unfortunately, these kind of winters lull people into thinking every winter is like this around here, and it’s basically a cake walk! It’s true. we may string several mild winters in a row together, until the stormy and cold cycle reverts back to the east coast. Then all bets are off!

After all that, winter-like temperatures tend to linger deep into the spring, especially along coastal locations. This is where the famous phrase, “we went straight from winter right into summer” comes from.! In some years, this is absolutely true. Folks seem to think summer begins in May around here. Yes, some years it can, leading to a nice extended summer. However, not every year. Some years spring reverts back to cold and wet patterns, only to welcome summertime heat by Memorial Day!

Other years, May can be an absolute gorgeous month! Warm temperatures can make for very pleasant days to be outdoors. If there has been enough rain in April, May can offer stunning spring colors only rivaled by those of autumn! In my opinion, May is the one real spring month here in New England. March is more wintry than spring. April can still have its moments. May is the month when everything blooms, and temperatures warm up to enjoy the outdoors. Most years, it’s stunning!

How about this May? Will we be able to say these beautiful words about May this year here in New England? If I were to take an educated guess, I would lean towards no. After such a mild winter, it appears as if the long awaited wintry pattern may finally be settling into the eastern part of the U.S. at least to begin May. Does this mean break out the snow-blower and winter gear? Thankfully no! Though I would not be shocked if there were reports of some snow in higher terrain locations in northern New England.

Remember, technically it’s still spring, and these locations have received heavy late season May snowstorms in years past. It’s not unheard of up there. Down here in the coastal plain, it’s rare to see snow in May, but not unprecedented. Back on May 9th, 1977 a freak late season snowstorm brought accumulating snowfall to much of central and eastern Massachusetts! Enough snow fell to bring trees and power lines down resulting in widespread damage. I remember knocking snow off tree limbs here in West Roxbury after 2 to 3″ of wet snow fell. Other areas a bit further inland received up to 8″, while some parts of Worcester County received up to 20″ of wet snow!

Snow fell in many locations on the same date as recent as 2020! Nothing accumulated here in Boston, but I do remember waking up early to witness snow showers falling here in the city. Heavy snow showers continued for much of the day up in New Hampshire, turning the ground white several times during the day! It can happen, but not often.

After the warm winter, it appears as if cooler than normal temperatures and unsettled weather conditions will be slowly progressing towards the east coast and New England to start May. This is not a surprise to me, I actually expected this pattern to settle in much earlier. Nonetheless, computer models are showing a cool & wet start to May this year. I would not be surprised if this pattern persisted for much of the month. I understand this is not what many folks would like to hear. However, I think it’s good news that a cool wet pattern is on the horizon for May. You would rather this pattern come around earlier in the spring, than sometime in June or July. If we can get through the high latitude blocking early enough, the pattern should break down by the time the summer solstice arrives on June 20th, for nicer summer weather.

It’s early yet, but I’m beginning to gather my information to present my summer forecast which will be posted on May 22nd this year. As i have done in years past, the first summer forecast is a preliminary outlook, followed by the final forecast in case there are any changes on or near the summer solstice. At this early juncture, it’s looking like another warm to hot summer for us here in New England. I don’t believe it is going to be as hot as the past two summers. However, in a warming climate, it’s hard to imagine a cooler than normal summer at this point. Right now, I do not see any evidence of a cool summer. Early outlook is for very warm conditions, most likely warmer than normal, but not extreme heat we experienced the past two summers. Boston typically receives 14 ninety degree days per summer. We will most likely surpass this number, but by how much is the big question right now. One thing that is more certain is precipitation. I can almost guarantee a wetter summer than we experienced last summer. Right now, I’m leaning close to average amounts of rain. This may seem like a lot, due to the fact it barely rained at all last summer. In contrast, I don’t believe we are going to see the torrential rains of two summers ago. Normal would not be a bad trade off! I will be monitoring the patterns and keep everyone updated with latest trends!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast! I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Somewhat unsettled and cooler temperatures.

Watch for pleasant conditions this evening, with some sunny breaks along with lots of puffy cumulus clouds. It should be generally dry, but a few pop up showers can not be ruled out. Temperatures should be in the low to mid 50’s across the region. Tonight should feature partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures with lows dropping into the 30’s and 40’s. Coldest in rural areas.

For Tuesday through Thursday of this week, expect unsettled and cool conditions. No wash-out is anticipated, but cold pool air aloft will make conditions unstable in the atmosphere. In patterns like this, early morning sun, will give way to building cumulus clouds. As conditions become more unstable, scattered afternoon showers will develop each afternoon. Some of these showers may be briefly heavy and contain some small hail. Temperatures will mainly be in the 50’s during the day, and 30’s and 40’s at night.

As this cold pool aloft tracks off the coast, the weather for Friday and most of Saturday look to feature more sunshine, and slightly warmer temperatures. While no heat is expected, temperatures could warm up into the low to mid 60’s both days.

A storm system will be approaching the region the second half of the weekend. Timing could be a bit off, but at the very least I’m expecting increasing clouds and cooler temperatures for Sunday. If the storm speeds up a bit, rain could develop during the afternoon or at night. If the storm slows down, it could hold off until Sunday night or early Monday. Once this storm arrives, expect a good soaking rain along with possibly windy conditions. It remains to be seen if this storm is going to evolve into somewhat of a early May Nor’easter, or just remain as a slow moving cold front traversing the region. Either way, expect rather cold & rainy weather to start of the month of May.

Thereafter, it looks like once this storm moves out, drier but cool weather should move in for the balance of next week. Remember, it’s all relative! Cooler than normal weather this time of the year are temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s, not 20’s and 30’s. Once we hit May, it’s more like 50’s and 60’s. So cooler than average, but the averages are increasing on a daily basis this time of year.

I wanted to quickly mention one more thing before I leave. It’s such a shame most of New England was socked in with clouds last night. It so happened we had one of the largest geomagnetic storms in recent history! This is when the sun emits solar flares towards earth. If the conditions are right, the Aurora Borealis or Northern Lights can be visible, especially for northern latitudes. These lights or waves of energy is a result of energy from the sun, colliding with earth’s magnetic field of charged electrons and neutrons resulting in a spectacular display of beautiful colors in a wavelike manner shimmering across the atmosphere. On a scale of 1 to 10, this was a 10! If skies were clear, locations such as the Boston area would of enjoyed perhaps a once in a lifetime event! As it was, my Twitter friend Scott was able to capture the incredible lights with some beautiful photos from Connecticut! Other locations as far south as Virginia were able to observe the magnificent show! Typically, the southern extent to see the lights is Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Upstate New York, and other northern latitude states.

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next post next week on May 1st, I will be reviewing the month of April, and have a preview of May. I will also be discussing more thoughts on our upcoming summer and how El Nino may influence our patterns moving forward. In the meantime, enjoy the spring weather, the heat of summer will be here before we know it!

Thanks for reading & be safe my friends!

Peter

Touch of Summer! 4/10/23

Hello! I hope everyone had a blessed and joyous Easter Sunday! We will be celebrating Greek Orthodox Easter this Sunday! The weather this past weekend was about as perfect as it can be for this time of year. Both days featured near 100% of the possible sunshine, with high temperatures mainly in the 50’s during the day. With the air mass being so dry, temperatures actually dropped into the 20’s and low 30’s at night. Overall, it was a perfect weekend for any outdoor activities, including yard clean-ups, a walk in the neighborhood, or a hike in the woods.

A good friend of mine mentioned that it’s been a bit chilly for her liken here in the fist 10 days of April. I would have to agree! Though we are solidly into early spring, temperatures can lag behind a bit, especially as one travels north and east here in New England. This is mainly due to cold ocean temperatures this time of the year, and the latent heating I mention often. In addition, very dry dew point temperatures have allowed temperatures to plummet at night, similar as they would in desert climates. Temperatures have been downright cold when the sun sets, and overnight lows have been more like winter than spring. The upside is the crystal clear, sunny days we’ve been experiencing. This allows temperatures to quickly warm up in the strong April sun. Did you know the sun is at the same angle as August right now? Yes! If you plan on being outdoors for any length of time, please apply sunscreen!

Yet, it’s still early. The first 10 days of April are still capable of producing winter storms and even blizzards some years. However, once past April 10th, the chance for significant snow diminishes to only as a rare occurrence here in Boston. No doubt, it has happened in past history, but with a warming climate, it would seem very unlikely these days. The story is always much different in higher terrain locations and up in northern New England, where major snowstorms can still occur even into May! Are we done with snow here in Boston this year? I would say in all likelihood, yes. Though as always, living in New England, we must place an asterisk next to that statement. The official date of taking snow completely off the table is May 10th. We have seen accumulating snow here in Boston as late as May 9th, 1977!

We are moving along with our scheduled green-up timetable here in New England. On average, grass magically turns green seemingly overnight this time of year. Looking around my neighborhood today, it appears the lawns have indeed turned green! This is about right on schedule. Any hold outs will give way to the summer-like temperatures arriving this week. It used to be mowing began on May 1st and ran through October 31st. However, once again, with a warming climate these days, lawn mowing may begin as soon as mid-April and run through mid-November. Almost an entire month longer than in years past!

Most trees are currently still dormant, or just beginning to bud. It would be interesting to take a picture of the landscape today, then another picture one week from now to see the difference in how much greener things will look. With temperatures in the 70’s and even low 80’s much of this week, trees and shrubs are going to burst onto the scene. By next Monday, 60% of the trees will have flowered and ready for leaf out. With the exceptionally warm winter, it won’t take much to get this process moving along this year. I would say by May 1st, most of the Boston area will have their leaves on the trees. This is about 10 days ahead of schedule.

Despite the warm weather this week, I would continue to hold off planting tender plants and vegetation. Long range computer data shows a cool down arriving next week, which can feature overnight lows back close to freezing, most especially outside of Rt 128. This is completely normal, and can sometimes persist into the start of May. This is why many folks plant their tomato plants after mid May around here. Hardy flowers such as daffodils or many other types of perennials will do just fine for early season flower blooms.

One by-product of the early warm dry weather is the increased risk of brush fires. You would think this happens only out west, but not true! We have to deal with these issues here in New England as well. In fact, there have been several large brush fires in the region recently, some resulting in significant property damage. Why so many brush fires? First, the sun’s radiation is very strong this time of year. I mentioned earlier that it’s the same strength as an August sun! Second, the recent dry weather has dried out the soil and vegetation from last fall. Third, green-up has not arrived in many areas, this allows unabated sunshine to further dry out old vegetation. At this point, it doesn’t take much to spark a fire! Things got out of hand last week with some of these fires, threatening to burn large homes down in wooded areas of the region.

So where do we go from here? There was a time a few weeks ago when I believed that a cold, unsettled spring was on the way. However, it’s obvious now that this does not appear to be the case. Much like what they’ve been doing all winter, compute models are depicting patterns and events that never show up and materialize. Since last year, we’ve been stuck in a semi-permanent pattern of trough (cold & stormy) in the west, and ridge (warm & dry) in the east. It has briefly broken down a few times, only to quickly regain its dominance. The fact of the matter is the Pacific Ocean remains colder than normal, despite a developing El Nino. I thought the transition from La Nina to El Nino was going to be more transparent, leading to marked changes in the overall weather patterns across the country. This has not been the case.

La Nina continues to influence the climate, with colder than normal weather across the western part of the country, and warmer than normal weather in the east. Therefore, it appears as if we will continue to see warm surges punctuated by brief cool spells for the remainder of April and most likely May as well. This is good news if you like spring weather around here! As long as the Pacific remains cold, this will favor cooler temperatures out west, and warmer temperatures in the east.

Will this pattern persist into this summer? This is the million dollar question everyone is currently analyzing! Some are calling for a cooler, wetter summer this year. This is only based off a changing ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) state, and subsequent similar patterns that follow. It’s hard to imagine a repeat of last summer happening again. But, who knows? In my opinion, we can’t rely on any patterns that have occurred in the past, to be predictors for the future. In other words, past teleconnections can not be used for future pattern recognition. The entire base line has changed. Therefore, an incoming El Nino may bring another hot, dry summer to New England, despite what normally should occur!

It’s just too early to tell from now. What I can tell you computer models are split on the evolution of summer. Indeed, some are saying a cooler & wetter summer is on the way. This makes some sense seeing we’re headed into El Nino, and the incredibly dry summer we had last year. However, there are several models still going for another hotter than normal summer again this year. This also makes sense seeing how our planet continues to warm at an alarming rate. Our average for 90 degree days used to be 14 days per summer. This would seem unusually cool to even be close to this number compared to recent summers! Over the past two summers alone, Boston has observed 90 degree temperatures 24 times two years ago, and 22 times last year. In fact, this was the first time in recorded history that Boston has observed back to back summers with 20 + ninety degree days.

As they say, ‘It’s not the heat, but that darn humidity!’ Dew point temperatures have been exceedingly swampy in Boston, with humidity levels increasing as each year passes. I have never seen such levels of heat & humidity over the past few years in my entire life of observing weather here in Boston. A somewhat cooler summer would be a nice break, but I’m not anticipating it at this point. My official preliminary summer forecast will be posted on Monday, May 22nd.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast! I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Get out and enjoy the beautiful warm weather!

Expect a very pleasant rest of your Monday afternoon, with blue skies, light winds and comfortable temperatures in the low to mid 60’s. It will be a wonderful evening for a walk in the park, take in a ball game or any outdoor activity.

Watch for clear weather tonight, with temperatures not as cold as recent nights. I don’t believe you will need the heat on, but some furnaces may click on late at night as temperatures fall into the 30’s and 40’s region wide.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature southwesterly winds. This will act as two factors. First, it will transport warmer air in from our southwest. Second, it will help thwart any sea breezes from developing along the coast. Therefore, watch for temperatures to soar across the region, with many towns warming to between 78 and 85 degrees! Tomorrow should feature ample amounts of sunshine, while Wednesday may see more clouds around the area, but also plenty of sun.

Steering currents may slacken Thursday through Saturday. The air mass will still be very warm across the region, however local sea-breezes may keep it 10 degrees cooler within 10 miles of the ocean. Watch for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80’s across interior New England, but low to mid 70’s along the coast with light onshore winds. All the while, I am not anticipating any rainfall for this entire week. Spring weather at its finest!

An approaching cold front on Sunday may result in a few more clouds, and possibly a few widely scattered showers, but no organized rain is expected. I’m expecting similar temperatures across the region, though some models are showing a slightly stronger sea breeze? That’s just speculation at this point. I wouldn’t head to the beach, but don’t cancel any outdoor activities.

The outlook for Patriots Day (Marathon Monday) is for generally mild weather, with highs mostly in the 60’s, perhaps some low 70’s if there’s any early morning sun. A cold front will be traversing the region during the day. Too bad so many dry days beforehand couldn’t last one more day! With that being said, I do not foresee any widespread wash-out or soaking rains. However, there will be a band of rain showers crossing the state during the day. Timing is difficult to pin down at this point. There is a chance this line may slow down so that most of the elite runners run the course dry. My recommendation is to check with local news media for the latest on when this line of rain may move through on Monday. Otherwise, expect generally fair but somewhat cooler temperatures to return next week, with dry weather resuming.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next post may not be until Monday, May 1st. If time permits, I may post prior to that date. In my next post, I will have my winter re-cap, and more in depth thoughts on our approaching summer. I will also have a new outlook for the month of May. In the meantime, say so long to winter and hello to summer! Wait…what happened to spring?

~Happy Easter to my Greek Orthodox family & friends!~

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Hello, Spring! 3/20/23

Hello! Happy first day of spring! Technically, spring arrives today at 5:24 PM. At this point, the sun is directly over the equator, when we have equal amount of daylight and darkness. This is called the spring equinox. After a somewhat frigid last day of winter, temperatures will rebound today, with highs near 50 degrees. Without the wind, this will actually feel close to 60 this afternoon! I call this the reverse wind chill effect. Saturday featured a mixture of sun and clouds, along with seasonable temperatures. After the cold front moved through, temperatures began to plummet late in the day and especially at night.

From this point moving forward, the days will continue to lengthen, by 4 minute per day here in March. In fact, March features the greatest gain of daylight out of any month of the year. As we move closer to the summer solstice, the momentum slows down until June 21st. Thereafter, the days begin to shorten and we repeat the cycle over again.

If you ever studied earth science, the entire process on how & why the seasons change is fascinating! Many people just take it for granted and don’t really understand the process. Did you know that the earth is tilted 23.5 degrees on its axis? If the earth wasn’t tilted on its axis, the seasons as we know it would not exist. There would no longer be any variation to temperatures or precipitation.

It takes 365 days for the earth to orbit around the sun. While in orbit, earth is spinning on its own axis and takes 24 hours to complete one revolution. This is what gives us night and day! As mentioned above, the key to our seasons is the 23.5 degree tilt! Because we are now tilting closer to the sun, solar radiation is rapidly increasing on a daily basis. This will continue until we reach the summer solstice. At that point, earth will begin its journey towards the autumnal equinox, and the radiation will begin to reduce as we begin tilting away from the sun. Our days will begin to shorten, as temperatures decrease. It’s not precise. There is latent heating and cooling effects which skews the dates.

For example, our hottest temperatures typically do not occur on the summer solstice itself. It takes longer for the oceans to warm up to maximum temperature, and cumulative solar radiation to reach earth. Therefore, our warmest part of the year arrives between July 1st and August 15th. This is when we experience our warmest daily maximum temperatures. Similar process occurs in winter. Ocean temperatures take longer to cool off in the fall, delaying arctic temperatures from arriving until January in most years. Consequently, our coldest temperatures of the year typically occur between January 1st and February 15th. In between, is what we call transition seasons (spring and fall), when temperatures are increasing or decreasing.

So…welcome to spring! As a winter lover, I’m glad to say goodbye to this winter. While interior locations received their share of snow, this was not a I95 winter by any stretch! Many cities along I95 from Boston to Washington D.C. have experienced either one of their least snowiest or the least snowiest winters on record! Here in Boston we at least received a few small snow events totaling up to a whopping 12.4″ for the season. This is close to three ft below average. I believe New York stands at 2.3″ and cities like Philadephia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. have only received a few tenths of an inch of snow. Essentially a snow-less winter.

It’s been a different story across the interior of New England, especially north and west of I495. A large storm last Tuesday dumped between 1 and 3 ft, with some locations above 2,000 feet in elevation receiving close to 4 ft! Here in Boston and close to the coastal plain, it was a case too little too late, the story of the winter. I mentioned this in my post last week that if two storms don’t merge in time, the result would be just an inch or two around Boston. It’s tough watching computer models go from 10 to 15″ of accumulation the morning of the storm, dwindling down to zero inches by afternoon. In the end, we did manage a slushy inch around Boston, but thankfully no shoveling was needed.

Now that it’s spring, we can put the snow shovels away, right? Not just yet! We have a few more sub-seasons to go through before we can officially store away the winter equipment until next year. There have been too many early spring storms to list over the years that have occurred between now and April 10th. The most notable one is the April Fools’ Blizzard back in 1997. The odds are lower, but about once every five years Boston can see a spring snowstorm. The last one was back to back snowstorms at the beginning of April of 2016. So you could say we’re “overdue” for a spring snow. After April 10th the odds for accumulating snow in Boston further diminish, but not zero by any means. In mid April of 2020 we received wet snow that accumulated a few inches on trees and lawns. If the patterns right, the potential for snow still exists through April. In fact, the latest snow on record in Boston occurred on May 9th, 1977!

As you can see, spring can be somewhat of an adventure around here. As mentioned above, the oceans are at their coldest levels of the year. If we get into a pattern with high pressure to our north, and low pressure to our south, the winds undoubtedly will blow in a easterly to northeasterly flow. This keeps the coast some 10 degrees colder than inland locations. If the low pressure is close enough to us, this introduces cold and damp weather along the coast, which sometimes can persist for days on end.

Every year is different. After 2020, we’ve had a couple very warm and pleasant springs which have arrived either on time or even ahead of schedule. When do we know spring is here? On average, the first thing we notice are crocuses popping up all over the place. You may hear spring birds singing when you leave for work in the morning. Next, is green up. This is when the grass begins to turn green. On average, grass begins to turn green by April 10th around here. Some years sooner than others. If it’s warm enough, we then begin to see forsythia bloom and other flowers such as daffodils and tulips bloom. Some like to push the gardening planning early. April can still bring cold weather and even snow some years. It’s best to begin gardening in May, when the threat of frost is greatly reduced. If it’s warm enough, we begin to see trees blooming by April 20th to the 30th. Leaf out begins in earnest on May 1st and is typically complete by May 15th. I would say after May 15th, we’re in full spring bloom here in Boston. However, I have seen very cool temperatures delay this process by two weeks if not more some years, and very warm years excel this by two weeks or more! Every year is unique.

Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) is calling for warmer than normal temperatures to continue for into April and May. So far, March has been running warmer than normal here in Boston, but not by much. For this year, I’m expecting a cold, unsettled stretch for the first half of April. This often happens when we have a warm, snow-less winter. I believe high latitude blocking will establish itself, suppressing the jet stream further south than normal. This will bring colder than average temperatures to our region, along with the continued chance of inclement weather. Yes, this will include more chances of snow through the first 10 days of April. Places that are seeing much below average snowfall this winter such as Boston, may add to this number before the season is completely done. Thereafter the pattern may relax, allowing warmer sustained spring weather to arrive later in April and May. However, at this point, I am not anticipating an early spring for New England region this year, despite NOAA’s  predictions.

Due to the recent heavy snows, I will be continuing the ski and outdoor activity forecast until further notice. Wow, what a difference the past several weeks have been! After a few major snowstorms, ski resorts have been blessed with deep late season snow depths, and the fun is just beginning! I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Most resorts received one to two feet of snow last Tuesday, with some resorts coming in with close to 4 ft such as Mt. Snow in southern Vermont! The weather for most of this week looks seasonable and dry. However, I am watching next weekend closely for the potential for significant a snowfall later Saturday and into Sunday. March may then go out like a lion with yet another major snowfall early next week. Overall, I’m expecting below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across northern New England for the next 10 days. This means more snow is likely for many locations in this region, and especially higher terrain locations. I’m anticipating spring ski season to continue well into April this year.

Now for our local spring outdoor activity forecast. Our climate in the coastal plain is much different than across the interior of New England and higher terrain locations as spring arrives. Up there, April can still feature heavy snowfalls, and colder temperatures. Meanwhile, here along the coastal plain, spring will begin to arrive with increased solar radiation. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Beautiful first three days, not so much after.

Expect sunny and milder temperatures for the rest of today! It should be a great evening for a walk in the park or local neighborhood. Expect high temperatures to be close to 50 degrees. Tonight should feature fair and milder temperatures. However, with light winds and clear skies, temperatures will still drop into the 20’s and lower 30’s. Warmest in urban locations.

Watch for two beautiful spring days for both Tuesday and Wednesday, with mainly sunny skies and temperatures warming up to between 55 and 60 degrees. Spring fever will be running wild across the city! Tuesday night should feature fair and somewhat milder temperatures compared to tonight.

Enjoy the beautiful early spring weather, the pattern will turn unsettled for the period Thursday through Sunday. Expect periods of rain and cooler weather for Thursday and Friday, with highs mainly in the 40’s. We may get a brief break on Saturday, with dry weather for the first half of the day. However, another storm may be approaching the region later Saturday and into Sunday. This storm may have more cold air to work with, so it’s not entirely out of the question that some areas well north and west of Boston could see some wintry precipitation. I would say north and west of I495 at this point, but that could change depending on how much cold air gets involved.

There’s potential for yet another storm at the start of next week. Computer models are showing a fairly strong storm tracking south of New England Monday night and Tuesday. If there’s enough cold air available, we could be talking accumulating snow even close to the coast this time. If this potential verifies, I will be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! Due to work restrictions, I will not be posting next week. I will update social media in case of any impending storm. In my next post, I will have a more in depth look at our incoming spring patterns. I will also have your Easter Sunday forecast. Wow! Time flies! In the meantime, time to break out the spring jacket, but keep the winter one close by just in case!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Stormy Tuesday! 3/13/23

Hello! I hope everyone has been well! The weather this past weekend was quite fitting for March! Saturday featured a mixture of rain & wet snow showers and chilly temperatures. Sunday was a nicer day, with mixture of sun & clouds. When the sun emerged from the clouds, you can really feel the strength of the March sun. Overall, it was a decent weekend for all late winter outdoor activities, including taking a walk in the park or neighborhood.

While everyone was enjoying the pleasant weather yesterday, I had my eye on a developing potential storm. Computer models have been showing the potential for a wintry type storm for a number of days now. There was some concern over the weekend in the weather community, as some models began depicting quite a severe storm hitting our area beginning tonight, and lasting well into Wednesday! At many points over the weekend model runs, this was looking like quite a whopper. How big? In terms of historical context, one of the biggest ever for March! Just in eastern Massachusetts alone, we were looking at one to two feet of heavy wet snow, with powerful winds of between 60 and 70 mph along the coast. North & west of I495 in higher terrain locations, between two and three feet was expected. This kind of storm would of brought numerous power outages across the state, coastal flooding and a massive clean up.

A Facebook friend asked if I had any thoughts on the upcoming storm. It was only a matter of time before media outlets caught wind of the potential storm and alerted the public. Rather than pressing the alarm button, I held back until I saw more information. After all, it was still just Sunday, and there was time for adjustments. We have gone down this road before, haven’t we?

Just a couple weeks ago, I updated everyone of an impending winter storm. My forecast called for 4 to 8″ of snow in the Parkway area, with difficult traveling conditions early in the morning. I could take the easy way out & say that’s what everyone was saying! I’m not a meteorologist, but I have enough forecast experience in the Boston area that I should of known better. A subtle shift to an east wind brought milder temperatures in off the ocean, changing the snow to rain or a sloppy mixture of the two. It may have been snowing much of the next day, but with temperatures in the upper 30’s, you’re not going to get anything but slush, if that!

With all that being said, it has been a difficult winter for analyzing computer model data. Even the most reliable models have been extremely erratic this winter…actually for a number of winters now. Computer models were showing 4 to 8″ of snow that night, so it was a shock to everyone when we woke up the next morning to slush and rain! Why does this continue to happen? I’m not a 100% sure, but to say weather patterns are extremely fickle. Even the best mathematical equations can’t win over Mother Nature. It seems just when you think you have the answer, she changes the question! Could climate change be adding to the lower skill rate? Yes, I believe large scale changing global patterns could be altering the long standing equations that are used to forecast the weather. Much more on that subject as we move forward into the future.

Do we need computer models? Absolutely! Technology has advanced to incredible lengths just in the past 30 years! Without computer models, disasters such as the 1938 would happen again which killed over 600 people! While we joke about computer models being wrong all the time, the truth to the matter is that they supply meteorologists with the tools to make life saving forecasts. Computer model advancement has saved millions of lives giving people ample warnings for blizzards, tornadoes, severe weather and hurricanes.

What about this impending, storm? I hope nobody got the impression there was no storm coming! Actually, we still do have a significant Nor’easter heading our way! It’s been quite fascinating watching the evolution of this storm over the past several days! It’s so exciting following a great group of amateurs and professional meteorologists on Twitter sharing their knowledge and ideas on what may or may not happen!

Yes, there was quite a dramatic shift in the storm late yesterday afternoon. I know that computer models can shift at the last minute, so I waited until I saw more information before making any statements. As it turns out, there was a shift in the storm, therefore the brunt of the snow is going to bypass coastal areas, including the City of Boston and Cape Cod. However, this does not mean it’s not going to be stormy or we won’t see any snowfall! This is going to be a multi-faceted storm system, bringing rapidly changeable conditions across the New England region. We have seen this last second shift occur many, many times this winter, leaving Boston with little or any snow.

So far, Boston has received just 11.9 inches of snow this winter. This is close to 3 ft below average. My updated forecast back on the winter solstice downgraded the winter from 30 to 40 inches, to 20 to 30″. At this point, I would be surprised if we even reached that reached this amount. It’s been a dud winter all up and down the I95 corridor. If you think it hasn’t snowed much here, areas from New York City points south to Philadelphia, Baltimore and D.C. area has received almost nothing! I think New York received a couple inches but that’s about it! As mentioned in my winter forecast, the interior and high terrain locations have done better, especially late February and here in March. This was also covered that winter would finally make an appearance here in March and possibly even April. So far, we have avoided below average temperatures and snow here in Boston. In fact, March has averaged above normal in Boston. If March finishes above average, it will be the 13th straight above average month in a row, since last year.

The combination of a fading La Nina, a Greenland block and a weakening polar vortex may set the stage for a slow and painful demise of winter this year. Global patterns continue to focus fierce winter weather out west. California has been bombarded with record amounts of rain and mountain snowfall. Homes and villages have become buried by the relentless snowfall. In some areas close to 50 ft of snow has fallen, and it’s not done yet! Extended outlooks through the remainder of March continue to show well below normal temperatures and incredible amounts of precipitation yet to come! This means mountain regions can expect another 10 to 20 feet of snow!

I would say ever since mid February, New England ski resorts have had the best ski conditions of the entire winter. Temperatures have been just cold enough for snow to fall instead of rain in high terrain locations. Look for this pattern to continue for the remainder of March and possibly into April.

With that note, here’s your ski and snow boarding forecast! Expect a major snowstorm to arrive for much of northern New England beginning late tonight, and continuing into Wednesday morning. Snow will fall heavy at times tomorrow, and continue well into tomorrow night. Travel is not advised anywhere north and west of I495 in Massachusetts heading up into northern New England. Many ski resorts will see between one and two feet of wet snow. Interior valley locations will see between 8 to 12″, depending upon elevation. Areas closer in the seacoast region of New Hampshire should see between 5 to 8″, extending up the coast into Maine. No additional storms are indicated, though there may be some snow showers moving through this weekend. Another major storm is possible next week up in ski country.

Now time for your weekly outdoor activity planner. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the Boston area through 7:00 Am Wednesday morning. An area of low pressure is developing as we speak off the Delmarva Peninsula. This low pressure will merge with another piece of energy crossing New York state. Had these two pieces of energy were to merge south of New England as it was showing yesterday, we would be in for quite a winter storm. However, as has been the case all winter, a last second shift has the two pieces of energy remaining separate. In a rather chaotic last second attempt, the two pieces of energy do merge in the Gulf of Maine. At that point the storm will encounter a block in the atmosphere in the Canadian Maritimes, which will force the storm to retrograde backwards, pinwheeling  the low pressure back towards the Massachusetts coastline later tomorrow.

Nevertheless, moisture from the initial storm will surge into New England tonight. As this moisture encounters colder temperatures across the higher terrain of the Berkshires, it will fall in the form of snow. Temperatures may also be just cold enough across portions of northern Worcester County for precipitation to change to heavy wet snow. As the storm tracks closer to New England later tonight, snow may expand in coverage anywhere from I495 points north and west. Precipitation will be all rain inside of I495 points south and east into tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile, northeast winds will be increasing overnight, gusting to between 60 and 70 mph along the immediate shoreline, and 50 to 60 mph set back from the coast. This alone may result in scattered power outages along the coast. At the same time, heavy snow rates will continue to accumulate quickly across higher elevations north and west of I495. At this moment, I’m expecting between one and two feet of heavy wet snow to accumulate in areas above 2000 ft. with between 6 and 12″ across lower elevations and valleys. Travel is not recommended across interior portions of Massachusetts in this region! This includes northwest hills of Connecticut too!

While all this is going on, the second piece of energy will finally catch up with the storm east of Boston. At first glance the storm may appear to head out to sea. However, as the storm is captured in the upper atmosphere, it will temporarily make a loop and retrograde back towards the New Hampshire seacoast. When this happens, winds will turn from northeasterly to northerly. At that point, sometime late afternoon, the rain / snow line may collapse towards the coast. It’s a complicated set up, but there may be a backlash of high winds and heavy snow along the coast tomorrow night. Some computer models are picking up on this, while others say the storm will wind down sometime overnight with very little accumulation along the coast. At the very least, many locations should see between 3 and 6″ of accumulation overnight inside of Rt128. As one travels outside of Rt 128 accumulations may increase to 4 to 8″ and 6  to 10″ as one goes further inland. If the changeover occurs later and the storm remains weak, we may only see an inch or two in Boston, and 3 to 6″ outside 128 and 4 to 8″ towards I495. Still a very tricky snowfall forecast with high bust potential!

There are still some wildcards that need to be addressed! If the two storms merge further south and quicker, a period of near blizzard conditions would be possible tomorrow evening and into tomorrow night in Boston points north. If this were to happen, accumulations would be much more, in the order of 8 to 12″. I’m not calling for this right now, but keep this in mind in case everything goes haywire tomorrow. Should this scenario occur, the risk of  numerous power outages and tree damage would occur across the Boston Metropolitan area, especially in locations closer to Rt 128. Keep in mind, computer models had this as the original solution for the storm, until things shifted. I would post an update to my Facebook page if I see this possibility occurring.

One more item of concern. With any strong low pressure off our coast, there’s always the threat of coastal flooding. Just because they say not to worry, surprises can and do occur! Wind direction, tides and strength of low pressure are all factors in determining if coastal flooding occurs. Tides are astronomically low right now. However, if strong northeasterly winds coincide with a high tide, there could be areas of minor to perhaps pockets moderate coastal flooding in vulnerable areas. If you are in a vulnerable location, please be aware of this potential.

Any lingering snow showers should be off the coast by 8:00 AM Wednesday. The rest of the day should feature blustery conditions with mainly cloudy skies. Skies may try and brighten towards the end of the day. Temperatures should warm up into the upper 30’s and low 40’s once the precipitation moves away.

From the period Thursday through Sunday, Expect mainly dry and seasonable temperatures, though a passing shower can not be ruled out at some point over the weekend. Temperatures should be mainly in the mid to upper 40’s for highs, and 20’s and 30’s for lows.

The next threat I can foresee would be sometime next week, though confidence is quite low, and it will be spring after all!

Well, that’s about it for now! I may be posting next Monday. If I do, I will be discussing the spring forecast, and our spring time-line, I will also let you know if I see any spring weather in our future! In the meantime, be prepared for just about everything, tomorrow! Just your typical March day here in New England!

~Be safe tomorrow~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter Storm Update! 2/27/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Indeed, the pattern has taken quite a dramatic wintry turn as of late! After Thursday’s snowfall, Friday thawed out a bit, with some melting before temperatures plunged overnight. Just when you thought we were in the clear, another fast moving disturbance brought a fresh coating of snow Saturday afternoon and evening. Because temperatures were so cold, the snow was fluffy, and was easy to move around with a brush or broom. This storm brought several more inches of powder to ski resorts up north. It was nice to see fresh snow & wintry temperatures arrive just in time for school vacation week!

No formal post today, but there’s so much to discuss! However, I did want to update everyone on the impending winter storm(s) coming up this week! Yes, I did say storms, as Mother Nature is going to throw the old one two punch at us this week! Thereafter, the revenge of winter will continue, with unseasonably cold temperatures and the threat of more storms for what appears to be through the spring equinox. I can’t say whether these will be all snowstorms from now, however the threat of winter type storms with frozen precipitation appears likely moving forward. As we move deeper into March, interior & northern New England will likely receive the lions share of significant snowfall. However, even here in southern New England the threat of a blockbuster storm is still a distinct possibility in a pattern like this even along the coast.

How quickly things have changed. It was just last week, spring was surging north, making it as far as New York City! While it was snowing in Boston, temperatures soared into the low 80’s across parts of the mid Atlantic region! With such a warm winter, and June like temperatures in February, early leaf out was arriving across most of the southeastern part of the country, even as far north as New York per reports. As we all know, this is way too premature…a good 4 to 6 weeks ahead of schedule! Even here in New England, reports of trees budding and daffodils blooming in favored spots. From the winter that wasn’t, could suddenly become a winter to remember?

My concerns of a late winter surge were mentioned in my winter forecast back in November appear to have merit. A weakening La Nina, a sudden stratospheric warming event, collapse of the polar vortex and a Greenland block are all pointing to quite a fascinating end to winter in the coming weeks here in New England. Other areas who have seen no snow this winter along the east coast could also see some wintry precipitation before it’s done. Some ski resorts in New England could go from receiving not enough snow this winter, to skiing well into June with the abundance of snow that may be heading their way. Snow may be falling deep into April this year across ski country!

It has been quite a remarkable winter thus far! California is enduring their coldest and wettest winters since 1989!  A fierce storm brought flooding rains, blizzard warnings, and up to 8 feet of mountain snow in southern California this past weekend. This storm originated in Alaska, and tracked right down the coast to southern California. An incredibly deep trough of low pressure remains out west, bringing record amounts of precipitation, and historic amounts of snow. You may think that it’s over, now that we’re in March, but computer data continues to show multiple cold storms with blizzards and up to 12 more additional feet of snow! Cabins and villages are buried with this snow blitz!

They’re not going to announce it to the public, but I have heard from reliable sources that the drought is officially over for California (at least for now)!  They have received so much precipitation this winter that reservoirs, lakes and rivers are now nearly completely filled. This is not including the massive run-off when all this snow melts this summer. Depending upon how warm it gets this summer, I would not be surprised if some areas of snow makes it through the summer melt into next winter!

I will discuss in further detail our patterns expected this March and heading into spring in my post next week.

Fist things first, let me update everyone on the impending winter storm.

As mentioned last week, an impressive temperature gradient has developed across the country. Incredibly cold out west, and incredibly warm across the southeastern part of the country. High pressure is building across eastern Canada, which has squashed the incredibly warm weather from reaching New England. Instead, cold air will continue to press down into New England from eastern Canada. There may be a slight relaxing to the cold for the first week of March, which may lead one to believe we are done with winter.

However, high pressure will continue to build across Greenland and northern Canada. When high pressure builds across Greenland, it forces cold air south into New England. This is called a negative NAO, or a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. I believe there will be a time heading into the second week of March when unseasonably cold air overwhelms the entire country. This pattern frequently leads to wintry conditions here in New England, with nor’easters cold and snow. This is especially true when it develops in March. The last time we had a similar pattern like this was back in 2018, when Boston received 4 nor’easters, and two feet of snow in March! I’m expecting something similar this year!

A storm currently developing across the Tennessee Valley will be tracking northeast, towards New England. This storm will spawn a secondary storm south of New England tonight. This storm will take over the energy and take an unusual track tomorrow. Rather than tracking north into the Canadian Maritimes, this storm is going to track east then southeast away from New England. This could be influenced by the Greenland block developing. This type of track typically can bring significant snowfalls to the Boston area.

Look for increasing clouds for the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will be tolerable, with highs mainly in the lower 30’s. As the storm approaches, expect clouds to lower and thicken this evening. Snow will be approaching from the southwest, first arriving in Connecticut, then spreading into Massachusetts and Boston between 10 pm and midnight. Once the snow arrives, temperatures will drop, and the snow will begin to quickly accumulate.

Watch for snow to fall heavy at times through the rest of the night into tomorrow morning here in Boston. I don’t make this call, but I would recommend closing schools tomorrow across the entire area. Not due to the amount of snow, but timing right during the morning commute times. Though the heaviest snowfall should be over around noontime, snow may linger across eastern Massachusetts throughout the day and possibly even into the early evening. The National Weather Service has a winter weather advisory up for the City of Boston. Personally, I would upgrade it to a winter storm warning. I’m not expecting a blizzard, but there will be a rough period of winter weather for at least 6 hours, coming right during the morning commute.

As with nearly every winter storm, there are some details to review.

First, there may be a coastal front which develops. This occurs as an east wind develops off the ocean, and pushes inland to an extent. A couple things to monitor. The east wind may bring mild air in off the ocean, and keep accumulations down along the immediate coastline due to the wet nature of the snow, and possibly even some rain mixing in. This may keep the accumulation down at locations such as Logan Airport, Quincy, and other south shore communities along the water.

Second, this coastal front is sometimes the focal point to enhanced snowfall rates. Depending on where the coastal front sets up, there may be heavy rates of snowfall along and near this front. Typically, the front sets up right along Rt 128. This sets up a convergence with east winds to the east side, and north winds on the west side. This means towns such as Woburn, Burlington, Lexington, Waltham, parts of Newton and Needham may see higher snow accumulations than locations inside Rt 128. It’s very difficult to pinpoint, and in most cases can’t be fully predicted until the event is ongoing.

Third, although I’m not expecting fierce winds, the coastal front alone can produce some strong winds along the coast. If temperatures remain close to freezing, wet snow can cling to trees and power lines which may be a hazard for broken tree limbs and scattered power outages. This is highly dependent on many factors such as how much snow falls, temperature, and if winds become strong enough. Something to monitor.

Let’s go over accumulations. Latest hi resolution short range models have been increasing moisture in this storm, especially along the coast. This could be picking up on enhancement along the coastal front. Storms intensity, easterly winds, precipitation rates, and a possible backlash in the afternoon make this storm tricky to pinpoint accumulations. I have seen storms like this go both ways. Meaning more than we expected, or a total bust with too much warm air invading coastal areas with rain.

As I see it right now, I’m calling for a tight accumulation gradient from right along the immediate coast as one heads inland. This means coastal locations such as Logan Airport, downtown Boston, coastal roads of Dorchester, Quincy and all south shore towns points southeast to Cape Cod may receive the least amount of snow from this storm. Let’s go with 2 to 4″ of heavy wet snow in these locations, least amount close to the water, and highest as one travels a few miles inland.

In the City of Boston, expect a tight accumulation gradient of 3 to 6″ for locations closer to the ocean. For inland parts of the city in towns & neighborhoods such as Walpole, Westwood, Dedham, Hyde Park, West Roxbury, western parts of Brookline / Chestnut Hill areas where 4 to 8″ may accumulate. It’s an easier forecast in towns and cities outside of Rt 128 where I’m expecting widespread accumulations of 6 to 10″ of snow. This holds true for basically the entire state of Massachusetts, including much of Connecticut 10 miles inland from the coast. This extends up into southern New Hampshire, with the exception of the seacoast region where I’m expecting 4 to 8″ of snow. If there’s any coastal enhancement and no mixing, some towns close to Rt 128 could receive up to 10″ of snow. As always, there will be some surprises and disappointments. It’s impossible to predict the exact final outcome. Not our biggest storm ever, but certainly the most widespread and most significant so far this winter!

Thereafter, expect the storm to move out of the region tomorrow night with clearing skies. Watch for any wet areas that may freeze up as temperatures drop.

Expect mainly dry weather on Wednesday with a rapid rebound for your first day of March! Expect some melting snow, with high temperatures warming to the mid 40’s. Since it’s March, we have to begin talking about an ever increasing sun angle, which can melt snow quicker in sunny areas. There will be increasing clouds as another system approaches. There could be some mixed precipitation Wednesday night, but I’m not expecting anything serious at this point.

Expect some showers and milder temperatures on Thursday, when temperatures may close in on 50 degrees.

While all this is happening, yet another winter storm will be taking aim at New England come Friday into early Saturday. Despite the mild temperatures of this week, this storm may take a favorable track just south of the region to bring more heavy precipitation and colder temperatures to much of New England. Right now, let’s call for a wintry mix in much of our area, which would be no walk in the park. If the storm intensifies at the right moment, it may draw in colder air from the north and change it to heavy snow Friday night into Saturday morning right to the coast. Otherwise, expect quite a wintry mess early Saturday with most snow north of Rt 2 region heading up into ski country in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. This storm also looks like it may bring quite a bit of moisture, which where it remains all snow, could bring in excess of 1 ft.

Yet another storm threatens later in the weekend early next week, before the pattern relaxes and we get a break. I will be sure to update everyone with the potential storm later this week if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! Watch for my next update later this week for the next winter storm! In the meantime, dust off the shovels and snow blowers, winter time has arrived to New England!

Keep safe & thanks for reading!

Feel free to comment or ask questions!

Pete

Icy Mix for some…Snow for others! 2/20/23

Hello! Happy Presidents Day! It’s been a while! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! So far, it’s been fairly tranquil, with mainly above normal temperatures. There was a bit of a chill in the air on Saturday, but as been the theme of this winter, Sunday warmed right back up to above seasonal levels. This trend has continued into today, with the feel of spring in the air, oh my! Overall, it was another March-like weekend here in February!

I would like to say we have a lot to catch up on over the past few weeks, but there really hasn’t been much! Last post I spoke about a brief bitter blast! Indeed, that came to fruition, with Boston recording it’s coldest temperature in over 60 years of record keeping! Back on Saturday morning, February 4th, the low temperature in Boston plummeted to a record 10 degrees below zero! Coldest since 1957! Wind chills were even colder, with readings as low as 38 below! This was the coldest I have ever seen it here in Boston. The coldest temperature ever recorded here in Boston was 18 degrees below zero back on February 9th, 1934. Records for cold were being smashed all across New England. Mt. Washington in New Hampshire air temperature plunged to 47 degrees below zero, with a windchill of minus 108!

It was so cold, I decided to try the boiling water experiment! I had never done it, and with temperatures so cold, I gave it a try! It was approximately 8:00 AM here in West Roxbury, and the air temperature was still around 9 degrees below zero. I boiled a pot of water and made my way downstairs to my back deck, which is elevated about 8 feet off the ground. I have to say, it was bitterly cold out, and it wasn’t easy holding my phone in one hand, and handling the pot of boiling water in the other. I only had one shot to pull it off. While taking video, I launched the boiling water into the air! What happened next is exactly what I have seen from other people performing the same experiment. As the boiling water encountered the arctic temperature, it immediately turned into a vapor, or tiny ice crystals! Some fell to the ground as snow, while the rest just evaporated. Cool!

The saving grace is that the cold snap lifted out of the region as quickly as it arrived. By Sunday afternoon, we were already back in the 40’s. I remember leaving work that Saturday night, and saying to myself, my goodness it feels so warm out. In reality, the temperature was still 16 degrees out, but that’s still 26 degrees warmer than it was the same morning! With little wind, it felt like spring! How odd in what has so far been the 3rd warmest winter on record, Boston records its lowest temperature in over 60 years.

We were extremely lucky this was just a brief visit from this intense cold. As it was, there were many reports of pipes bursting all across the city. We field many calls during cold snaps like that with water solenoid valves freezing and bursting on dishwashers. It’s amazing how cold it can get under your dishwasher, especially near non-insulated outside walls. You would think the pipes would burst when its the coldest temperatures. Actually, it’s after the cold snap eases and the temperatures warm up is when the pipes expand and burst. When this happens…it’s not pretty. It’s a stressful time for the homeowner, plumbers and appliance technicians.

That was then, and this is now! Since the anomalous cold snap, temperatures have averaged 5 to 8 degrees above average here in February. My forecast called for a warm February, but I did not envision it being this mild. Including today, Boston has reached 60 degrees 4 times this month! With temperatures like this, it’s no wonder signs of early spring are popping up all over the place! Spring birds singing in the morning, tulips poking up, trees budding, peepers peeping, even reports of pollen in the air. All of which can happen from time to time, but we must face the reality that these warm winters have become more common as the climate warms.

As of today, I believe Boston has only recorded just a trace of snow so far this February. We still stand at 7.9″ of snow that fell back in January. If winter were to end today, it would go down as the the least snowiest winter on record, and the third warmest. However, there’s one problem with that…it’s still only February 20th!

I’m not saying watch out for a snowmageddon in Boston, but there are indications that winter may not go out without a fight! When I made the winter forecast back in November, I was concerned that the La Nina was going to be weakening. This alone would allow colder temperatures to slowly press into New England. In addition, there recently was a sudden stratospheric warming event, or SSW. Recent computer models are indicating that the SSW may be strong enough to fragment the polar vortex into several vortices, resulting in areas of severe winter weather events across parts of the northern hemisphere. What this means for us here in New England remains a bit of a coin flip at this point. Most of the severe winter conditions have remained across the western part of the U.S. It’s possible the existing pattern persists straight through the spring. However, if a Greenland block develops and locks in, it could mean a cold & stormy March and early April around here.

While all this is happening, the stubborn southeast La Nina ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) will continue to keep fighting! This is going to provide unseasonably warm air across parts of the lower Tennessee Valley extending across to the mid-Atlantic region, even up to southern New England at times. Meanwhile, arctic air will be building across southern Canada and northern parts of the U.S. What this means to me is a classic battle of the seasons will be unfolding over the next several weeks, with New England being right in the middle of all the action! This could mean quite a bit of rain, icy mix for many or even snow for some. Most snow in a pattern like this looks to fall across northern New England and the ski areas, which is great news!

At this stage, I believe there are two roads the pattern is going to take from here. First, we continue with the unusually mild winter which will transfer into an unusually warm spring. This would be similar to the insanely warm spring of 2012. After a record warm winter, March was an absolute blow torch, with people spending time a the beach on St. Patrick’s Day. Yes, we had a 4 day stretch when temperatures soared into the mid 80’s that March! I don’t think that’s going to happen, but something similar with many days in the 70’s and early spring is possible.

The other road is a road many would rather not travel. This road would bring us down a path of below normal temperatures, periods of rain, ice and snow, and cold winds. In other words… winter. My opinion is that the pattern has to balance itself out at some point. It can’t stay warm & snow-less forever. Eastern Massachusetts averages between 50 and 60″ of snow per season. If we can get a good snowstorm or two, it will lessen the threat of a severe backlash come next year in my opinion. The longer we go without winter, the more severe the pay-back will be later this spring or next winter. Absolute worse case scenario would be the warm pattern persists into March up until the spring equinox. At that point, the entire pattern collapses, and the long awaited winter pattern arrives. This would make for an absolute despicable April and May around here, and who knows may extend into part of the summer? I have seen this happen before.

I’m taking the middle road here for now. I believe March is going to feature more wintry weather than what we’ve experienced this past winter, nothing too severe from what I see right now. Snowfall will be about what we normally see which is around 9″ on average here in Boston. This will bring us out of the basement for seasonal snowfall averages, but still well below the seasonal average. Could we get one good sized storm in March? Yes, that’s possible as well. My seasonal snowfall forecast call was for between 20 and 30″ in Boston. If we receive a bit above normal snow in March, there’s a chance we could end up in that range.

Here’s your February vacation ski forecast. After a very warm Monday, wintry conditions will arrive the the north country, along with colder temperatures. Just in time to avoid a disastrous week, otherwise. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10, heavily weighted for the expected winter storm later this week. Look for mild conditions today, only to turn colder tomorrow, with the potential for a few inches of snow across many of the ski resorts. Wednesday will turn cloudy as the next storm system arrives. Expect a mixture of snow & sleet across southern zones on Wednesday night and Thursday, with snow falling heavily at times in northern resorts all day on Thursday. Southern areas may transition to mostly snow during the day, but the mix will keep accumulations lower in these areas. I’m expecting 5 to 8′ in southern areas close to the Massachusetts border. However, as one travels further north I’m expecting 6 to 12″ with up to 12 to 18″  across higher elevation ski resorts where no mixing occurs. There will be a shot of bitterly cold temperatures after the storm on Saturday, only to moderate with a chance of more snow by Sunday.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect spring fever across much of the region this afternoon, with Boston already reaching 60 degrees! It should be a great evening for a walk in the park or in the neighborhood, with light winds and mild temperatures. Watch for mild weather to continue overnight, with low temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s.

Tuesday will turn out to be quite a changeable day! A cold front will be crossing the area early in the day bringing with it a chance of showers. As the cold air rushes in, some communities may see a quick flip to snow showers or even a period of accumulating snow. Some computer models are showing a band of snow developing early in the day across southern New England, specifically south of the Mass Pike. Interior locations may see a flip to snow sooner, and have the best chance at seeing 1 to 3″ accumulate. In any event. be aware of some slippery spots as the cold air rushes in and any snow falling.

Thereafter, expect colder temperatures to move back into the region with a brisk wind. As skies clear Tuesday night, expect temperatures to fall to more seasonable levels, with teens and 20’s common throughout the area.

As discussed earlier, a massive storm will be traversing the country. This storm has the potential to bring up to 2 ft of snow to Minneapolis St Paul region in Minnesota. As this storm tracks east, a strong high pressure will be building north of New England, supplying us with colder air. In typical La Nina fashion, this storm will extend a warm front which will separate the cold air to the north and warm air to the south. This will elongate the storm, stretching it out from west to east. If a secondary low pressure were to develop south of New England it would lock the cold air into southern New England, and we would experience a much more wintry storm. As it stands right now, it looks like the primary low pressure will track up the St Lawrence River Valley. This will allow warm air to punch north into southern New England fairly easily, changing any snow to sleet and then eventually rain. With the cold high to our north, the icy precipitation may put up a fight through the overnight hours of Wednesday night.

This strong high pressure to our north will supply just enough cold air so precipitation remains mainly on the for of snow up north, which I discussed earlier. After some early sun, watch for increasing clouds Wednesday. It will fell and begin to look like snow by late afternoon.

Indeed, there may be a brief period of snow arriving Wednesday night, say after 10 pm. For snow lovers in Boston, it looks like this snow is going to transition to sleet not too long after midnight. The cold air may hold on long enough for sleet to continue into the morning commute in Boston. Eventually, it should warm up enough that the sleet changes to plain rain by late morning in the city and points west and southwest of Boston, if not sooner. Areas north of Rt 2 the icy snowy mix may persist deeper into the day, after 2 to 4″ of morning snow.

The gradient from rain, to sleet to snow will be evident in this storm as one travels short distances from south to north. I would say if you live north of the Mass border, you can expect more snow with this storm which will eventually mix with sleet, but a very snowy & icy day appears to be on tap for Thursday. In this region in cities and towns such as Manchester, Epping and Portsmouth N.H. region can expect between 5 and 8″ of snow. North of that line amounts will increase to 5 to 10″ in the Rochester area and then 6 to 12″ north of Concord N.H. to Portland, Maine.

Amounts will decrease as one travels south into Massachusetts to 2 to 4″ north of Rt 2 around the Rt 128 belt just north and northwest of Boston with sleet on top of that. Here in Boston, I’m only expecting about an inch or two of icy sleet in Boston. However, with this being mostly sleet, it may be difficult for shoveling and general clean-up. At this moment, I’m not expecting any accumulation of sleet or snow south of Boston with this storm. However, future model runs will need to monitored, in case they trend colder. If that occurs, even these locations could see an icy mix with some icy accumulations before a change to rain.

I will  say this. It’s been a very benign winter up to this point. However, it looks as if the pattern is going to be very active for at least the next 7 to 10 days across the region, with similar storms. By far, this is the most complex storm of the season up to this point. Boston is right on the line of competing air masses. If cold air hangs on longer, Thursday could turn into a much more wintry day than I’m anticipating, with more sleet that may transition to snow sooner and be a mess for both the AM and PM commutes. On the flip side, if warm air invades the area sooner, it would mean more of a rainier scenario for the city, with just wet roads. A lot hinges on how far north the warm front presses, and if any secondary low pressure develops along the front and locks cold air in place along the coastal plain. At this moment I’m leaning more wet than icy, but that still could change.

The storm will linger Thursday night into early Friday morning. As cold air filters back south, there may be a flip back to some light sleet mixed with flurries in Boston heading into Friday morning. Light snow will continue across New Hampshire and Maine Thursday night into Friday morning. Otherwise, expect partial clearing Friday. Temperatures may start out reasonable, but an arctic blast will be arriving to make Friday night into Saturday morning quite bitter across the region, with lows in the single digits and teens, with wind chills well below that.

Saturday will start off bitterly cold, and looks to only slowly moderate during the afternoon. Early sun, will fade behind increasing clouds. Another system may bring a burst of snow or flurries which may linger into Sunday. Yest another system may bring more snowfall early next week? We’ll have to watch the evolution of that one.

Well, that’s about it for now! I will do my best to post next week as my work schedule remains quite difficult. If a storm threatens, I will sure to update everyone! When I do post next, I will have a preview for March, and a review of February. I will also take an early look at our spring outlook, as well as your new ski forecast. In the meantime, New England will live up to its reputation for changeable weather as Mark Twain once said, “if you don’t like New England weather, just wait a few minutes, and it will change!”

Be safe & thanks for reading!

Pete

Remembering “The Great Blizzard of 1978″…2/6/23

No official blog this week, but I wanted to share some memories I have from the legendary Great Blizzard of ’78.

Hard to believe exactly 45 years ago today, the Great Blizzard of ’78 was well underway. I was only 9 at the time, but remember all the details as if it was yesterday. Three major factors all came together to make this storm once in a lifetime event. First, blocking arctic high pressure anchored in southeast Canada. Second, the storm was captured in the upper levels south of New England near Block Island, causing it to stall and perform the famed ” blizzard loop.” Third, a new moon resulted in higher than normal astronomical high tides.

I’ll never forget the color of the sky waking up early morning on February 6th, 1978. So dark it almost appeared purple in color. Shortly after, the winds began to pick up from the east. You would notice the winds first, preceding the blizzard. We were allowed to go to school that day, and you could here the wind roaring in the woods behind the school, which was Parkway Academy. I was only nine, and didn’t understand much, but I knew something big was coming!! Shortly after arriving at school, flurries began flying. These weren’t tiny flakes you see sometimes at the start of storms. These were big, fat flakes that were swirling around and quickly covered the ground. Presumably ocean effect snow before the blizzard arrived.

Not soon after that, the real blizzard arrived. A wall of snow pivoting in from southeast to northwest engulfed the Boston area. My excitement level was off the charts as snow was falling sideways looking out the windows at school. Soon after I would say around 11:00 AM schools and businesses were released to go home. Looking back, it was a lot different back then than today’s world. Hard to believe elementary children were released without any supervision into a raging blizzard! I lived just two miles from school, but by the time the bus came it took two hours to make it home. By the time I got off the bus, the blizzard was in full force with storm force winds, heavy snow with considerable blowing & drifting snow already! It was only mid-afternoon, and we had already received 3 to 4″! I’ll never forget my father tying down the awning on our back porch as the winds were threatening to tear it off!

The storm raged all night long and all the next day, Tuesday February 7th with blizzard conditions. Something I didn’t realize until recently, but a massive power outage darkened the city of Boston on Monday night, February 6th. We were very lucky where I live in the West Roxbury section of Boston power remained throughout the storm. Blizzard conditions continued throughout the night of February 6th as heavy bands of snow were moving east to west off of the Atlantic Ocean from Cape Ann and pivoting southwestward through Boston extending southwest of Boston towards Rhode Island. I remember looking out the window Monday night and barely being able to see the streetlights in whirlwind of snow. Wind gusts now reached hurricane force, as the blizzard peaked in intensity overnight Monday. As mentioned above, heavy snow & winds continued the next day and did not abate until late evening.

I stayed up all night watching the fury of the blizzard. Winds were so fierce, it shook the second floor of our house at 48 Kenneth St. Whiteout conditions continued unabated throughout the night. When everyone awoke the next day, we couldn’t believe our eyes as the neighborhood had been buried! Hard to believe, we were only a little more than halfway through the storm! Severe blizzard conditions raged throughout the entire day on Tuesday, February 7th.

The other aspect of the blizzard was the catastrophic coastal flooding that was inundating coastal Massachusetts from Gloucester, Revere / Nahant, Hull, and Scituate were some of the hardest hit communities in the blizzard. We watched on TV as people were being rescued from their homes, as the ocean flooded the seacoast. Homes & seawalls were destroyed or severely damage. There were 4 successive high tide cycles during the blizzard. It was later determined the storm had similar damage to cat 3 hurricane along the coast.

If that wasn’t enough, who could ever forget the nightmare unfolding on Rt. 128. As the blizzard intensified on Tuesday, traffic came to a standstill on Rt 128. From what I heard, a tractor trailer jackknifed leading to a complete gridlock on the highway. People became stranded in the blizzard, many tragically losing their lives from carbon monoxide poisoning from keeping their cars running, and snow clogging up exhaust pipes.

The official measurement at Logan Airport was 27.1″. I think they lost about 10″ from the wind. I can assure you many communities from Cape Ann through Boston’s southwestern neighborhoods extending southwest towards the towns of Dedham, Canton, Westwood, Walpole, Wrentham, Franklin and northern Rhode Island received between 30 and 40″+ of snow, with some jackpot areas in northern Rhode Island such as Woonsocket received an incredible 52″ of snow! Drifts in my neighborhood alone were at least 10 and 12ft high. We have photos which show the snow waist deep in my neighborhood.

As the blizzard abated later Tuesday evening, I remember my sisters Pam & Val venturing out into the deep snow in front of our house. They didn’t realize it, but they actually walked on top of cars parked in front of the house! The snow was too deep for me to venture out right after the storm. However, I remember going out the next day and making tunnels with my good friend Eric Blaney, who lived next door to me. We communicated by whistling as the snow was over our heads! The memories of making gigantic snow forts and playing in the snow for weeks on end is something I will never forget. Another thing I will never forget was having three full weeks off from school!! Two weeks from the blizzard, and they threw February vacation in for good measure!

Many ask, could something like this ever happen again? The answer to this is yes and no. Yes, a storm of this magnitude or even stronger will happen again in the future. In my lifetime, most likely not. However, records are meant to be exceeded. Mother Nature does enjoy outdoing herself from time to time! On the flip side, I doubt we see the stranded vehicles on highways like this again, and schools will never be closed for two weeks as they were in the 1978. Technology these days is so advanced, we would see this storm coming from at least a week away today. Boston is so prepared for storms these days, the city is up and running in a day or two even after we have two feet of snow. Salt trucks and plow drivers are diligently going up and down city streets every five minutes in storms these days.

There have been many storms since, some came close, but when you combine all the factors listed above, the Great Blizzard of ’78 remains the greatest storm to this date in my lifetime. Anything is possible, but it most likely will be once in a lifetime event for me. I am grateful I was alive to witness it, along with my family and friends. Feel free to comment your story and memories of the Great Blizzard of ’78!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Brief Bitter Blast! 1/30/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a tranquil weekend weather-wise, for January standards! After a string of endless cloudy days, Saturday featured some partial sun which put many in a good mood. Sunday was back to old habits, with mainly gray skies. The good news were the temperatures. Had the sun been out yesterday, surely we would of reached the 60’s! As it was, temperatures were more like late March, running in the mid 50’s. All in all, it was a very spring-like weekend across much of the region to get out & enjoy a winter hike, or a walk in the park.

This was not the case just one year ago! Back on January 29th, 2002 the Boston area was hit by a blizzard! Does anybody even remember storms anymore? To refresh your memory, eastern Massachusetts was hit with between 12 and 30″ of wind whipped snow! If you don’t remember it, I have a few theories why you may of forgotten. First, the storm hit on a Saturday. Most people were hunkered down safe in their homes. Second, what once was looking like a widespread blizzard, was whittled down to extreme coastal Massachusetts. A last second eastward shift in the storm spared the majority of the region a crippling blizzard. It was a fine line between getting clocked, and just your typical heavy snowfall. If there was any definition of a classic I95 storm…this was it! If you lived east of I95 to the coastline, you were the recipient of blizzard conditions with 3 to 4″ per hour snowfall rates, very strong northeasterly winds, and destructive coastal flooding. Many communities received between 24 and 30″ of snow by the end of the day on Saturday. If you lived just west of I95, you may of been wondering what all the fuss was all about. Yes, it was a good snowstorm, but nothing we haven’t seen in the past. These locations received between 12 and 20″ of snow.

Here where I reside in West Roxbury section of Boston, the fierce band was oscillating through the community the better part of the day. There were blizzard conditions at times, but in the end, I would say we missed the brunt of the storm. After taking about a dozen measurements and dividing by twelve, I came up with 18.5″. The snow gradient was impressive! Just four miles to my south in Hyde Park, the measurement went up to 22″, and further east in Dorchester, South Boston and Logan Airport all came in with around 2ft of snow. Finally, as was the case all winter, the snow didn’t last! Not long after the storm, temperatures dramatically increased, rapidly melting the huge snowbanks across the city. In fact, just a week after the storm, you would hardly of known that it even occurred!

That was then, and this is now! This winter, is a non-winter…so far! For the surplus of snow we received last winter, Mother Nature is doubling down this winter, with hardly any! Yes, we saw a couple light snowfalls last week, but that was barely enough to lift us out of the record books for least amount of snow on record up to this point. This is more than all other east coast cities from New York points south. These cities have not received any measurable snow so far this winter. Up to this point, you can officially say it’s been a snow-less winter in those locations. We’re lucky here in Boston we’re just far enough north to have benefited from at least some snow!

Ski resorts and northern New England received a couple good sized snowfalls last week. This even extended down into some northern Massachusetts communities. This is partly due to the excessive wet January we have seen. Many locations from Boston to Cape Cod has received between 5 and 10″ of precipitation this January!

It’s been absurdly warm, too! Up to this point, we are currently sitting at the 4th warmest January’s on record. After the data from today comes in, we may move up to number 3. It’s been so warm, many folks have been posting pictures of daffodils and snow drops blooming across the area. Yes. it’s very unusual to see spring flowers beginning to bloom here in January…but not unprecedented! It’s happened before in many other years in recorded history.

While we’re statistically in the middle of winter, the days are beginning to get longer. Just that extra radiation from the sun is enough to warm the ground to promote early blooms. It’s really nothing to be concerned about here in January. As we head into February, and the exceptionally warm winter continues, there’s more things to be concerned about. My concern is if these incredibly warm temperatures were to continue in February, other more sensitive blooms would occur. There has been recent warm late winter temperatures allowing fruit trees to bloom prematurely. In our zone, this is much too early for trees to be blooming! As this was followed by deep freezes in March which killed the fruit blossoms and was catastrophic to local farmers. I’m very concerned something similar may occur this year, and will be monitoring this potential closely.

Updated long range computer models are predicting another very warm month for much of the eastern part of the country. If the warm patterns continue, temperatures can be even warmer in February due to the higher sun angle. You may ask, what about the SSW and polar vortex split I discussed last week. Very good question. I’m trying to figure out what happened to it as well. Computer models keep pushing the main event back to the end of February, which means March could be more wintry than January this year! Ugh! Straight from my winter forecast, I always mentioned to beware of March this year! It’s possible Mother Nature is setting us up for a wild endgame to winter!

As it turns out, a piece of the polar vortex is breaking off and will charge through New England later this week and the start of the weekend. Thank goodness it’s here for only a very brief visit! You may of noticed a trend this winter, nothing stays for long except the mild temperatures and rain!

After the vortex lifts, a rapid rebound to above normal temperatures will commence on Sunday. Will the vortex make any encore appearances this winter? Well, it looks like February is going to be another warmer than average month. After a quiet first week, it also appears as if the active weather pattern may also be returning. From what I’m seeing, it looks like the majority of these storms are going to be rain here in Boston. Does this mean no snow? I don’t believe so. It looks like there’s still a chance there could be snow involved with a couple of these storms, especially as one travels north and west of the Boston. On average, Boston typically sees 14″ of snow during February.

This varies wildly from year to year. Some years can easily see double or even triple, while other years hardly any at all. February also features a period where weather enthusiasts and meteorologists call “Prime Time.” This is a 10 day stretch from February 4th to the 14th when atmospheric conditions are “prime” for a winter storm to hit Boston. For example, the Blizzard of ’78 occurred on February 6th and 7th in Boston. Other notable nor’easters and blizzards have occurred during this 10 day stretch. As we know, winter storms have occurred as early as November, and as late as April. I’m going with the trend so far this winter, and going with below average snow this February in Boston, but above average in ski country! Right now, I’m looking at around February 11th for our next chance for snow.

I’m also expecting some wild temperature fluctuations. I can almost guarantee some bursts of spring this February, only to be followed by periods of cold weather. I’m thinking February won’t be as warm as January, but it may seem warmer only because the averages begin to increase in February. Just to put it in perspective, departures in January has been +8 degrees. If February turns out to be this warm, get the gardens ready! It would also go down as one of the warmest winters in recorded history!

I’m happy to report a more improved ski forecast this week. I will rate this week an 7 out of 10. Many resorts cashed in with between 1 and 2 ft of natural snow from the storms. While it’s been warm down here in southern New England, it’s been colder and more wintry up north. This has led to an improving outlook, sending skiers and snow boarders to the slopes. One downside of the warm winter is the lack of ice fishing. Many lakes have not frozen over this winter, making it impossible to enjoy that outdoor sport. I’m expecting a mainly dry week in ski country this week. There will be a few disturbances racing by which may result in some snow showers, though no significant snow is expected at this point. It will be cold enough for many resorts to make snow. Be aware, many resorts will likely be closed early Saturday morning, as low temperatures may drop to between 20 and 20 degrees below zero! These are air temperatures, not including the wind chills!

It should warm up enough so temperatures will begin to moderate as early as Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be like a whole different climate, with temperatures rapidly warming up into the 20’s and 30’s.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. ***Dangerous cold weather at the start of next weekend***

For the balance of the week, I’m expecting fairly benign weather conditions for the period of today through Thursday. Look for seasonable temperatures with mainly dry weather patterns. Seasonable this time of year is mid 30’s for high temperatures and teens and lower 20’s for nighttime lows. A cold front will be swinging through the region overnight, which may bring a few scattered rain and snow showers. At this point, I’m only expecting some scattered coatings of snow, but be aware if you’re out and about.

A few more disturbances will be passing south of New England during this period. Right now it looks to remain dry, but it wouldn’t take much with the steering currents to bring some light precipitation to the south coast and Cape Cod region. Chances are low, but thought I would mention it just in case there were any last second surprises. If any precipitation made it this far north, it could fall as a bit of light snow or mixture of rain and snow. I’m not expecting anything significant at this time.

The big news for this week is the potential for a record breaking cold snap Friday night into Saturday morning. Looking at the weather maps, you would never know anything was “out of the ordinary.” However, as you place the maps in motion, it would be hard pressed not to notice what can only be described as a pink bowling bowl heading towards New England straight from Hudson Bay region. On computer animation, purple is very cold, pink is extremely cold. According to computer models, the pink color is going to make a brief visit into New England Friday night into Saturday morning. We can tell how potentially cold it’s going to be by looking at projected temperatures in the upper atmosphere. Right now, the coldest of the air mass is due to pass through New England overnight Friday into Saturday morning.

According to computer models, the Boston area has the potential to fall to between 5 and 10 below zero Friday night. Hard to believe I’m even saying this after such a warm winter we’ve been having! The last time Boston fell to below zero was minus 4 back in January of 2018. Before that, we had a similar cold snap to what I’m expecting this go around back on Valentine’s Day in 2016. Low temperature actually fell to 9 below zero in Boston! The coldest low temperature ever recorded in the city of Boston was 18 below zero, set back on February 9th, 1934!

It will be even colder just north of Boston, where low temperatures are projected to fall to between 15 and 25 below zero. This is cold enough to cause non-insulated and insulated pipes to freeze. That’s the air temperatures. There’s also going to be a wind along with the bitter cold. Wind chills are expected to range from between 20 and 40 below zero in the Boston area, to between 30 and 50 below zero up north!

Thank goodness it’s a brief blast! Even as soon as Saturday afternoon, the worst of the cold will be lifting out of New England. Temperatures may begin the day below zero in much of New England, but should warm up into the teens  by afternoon in southern New England, and single digits up in northern New England.

By Sunday it will be a distant memory! The core of the cold air will be rapidly retreating into Canada, while warm southwesterly winds take over across much of New England sending temperatures soaring back up into the 40’s! Temperatures should continue to be on the warm to mild side heading into next week, with maybe 50’s by Wednesday!

Well, that’s about it for now! If there are no major weather events, my next blog will be posted on February 13th. If I see anything concerning, I’ll be sure to update the blog. In my next post, I’ll be discussing how this winter stacks up to previous non-winters. I’ll also have a new ski forecast, and let you know if there will be any chance for a real snowstorm this winter. In the meantime, if you dislike the cold, our regular scheduled warm winter will resume after the bitter blast!

Thanks for reading & keep warm!

Pete

PS: How could I almost forget…Happy Groundhog Day on Thursday! Sorry to say, Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow!

Snowy Scenario! 1/23/23

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Looks like we didn’t catch the memo from Mother Nature that we’ve been re-located to Seattle, Washington! Wow, has it been a cloudy, dreary month! Family and friends have been asking me what happened to the sun?? I mentioned to my sister in-law Cathryn yesterday to think back to the endless sunny days we enjoyed last summer and to en extent this past fall. Yes, Mother nature is all about balancing extremes out. I mentioned that it’s best to get these inclement cloudy periods here in wintertime than late spring and summer! No guarantees, but it’s better to get the stormy stuff out of the way now to enjoy sunny weather when summer arrives!

After the wet snow on Friday, Saturday featured yet another cloudy day across the region. With the active pattern in place, the next storm was already on our doorstep for Sunday. Therefore, Sunday was also cloudy. Wet snow began late Sunday in the Boston area, but quickly changed to rain in the city. This rain snow line pushed north to the New Hampshire border overnight, with many areas reporting freezing rain across northern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire.

This seems to be the jack-pot zone as of late. These same locations received between 5 and 10″ of wet snow last Friday, as snow plastered trees and power-lines across these region of New England, making for a winter wonderland landscape. I received several photos from friends and family who live or travel north of Boston of the beauty of winter! My brother in-law Michael sent me some stunning photos from the seacoast region of New Hampshire from the storm.

Meanwhile, down here in Boston, it actually snowed almost the entire day on Friday. However, when push came to shove, it was just a bit too warm for the snow to accumulate, as it melted on contact with the ground. When temperatures finally dropped to freezing at sunset, the precipitation was winding down, leaving us with just a sugar coating of snow.

We’re not quite out of the woods just yet! Another rapidly developing storm off our coast this afternoon may bring a treacherous commute to many this afternoon and evening. As the first storm pulls away, it has dragged colder air back into the Boston area. Even as I write here in the weather bunker, I’m beginning to hear ice pellets pinging off the storm windows. As the storm intensifies, a new plume of moisture is blossoming across eastern Massachusetts.

At the same time, colder air in all levels of the atmosphere is draining down from the north. As all these factors come together, the potential is there for a period of moderate to at times heavy snow across the Boston area from between 1:00 PM to approximately 8:00 PM. With the expected moisture and cold air, it looks like Boston should receive between 2 and 4″ of snowfall before things wind down later this evening. This will be enough snow for snow plowing and shoveling.

Many areas across southern & central New Hampshire extending up through coastal Maine have already received between 4 and 7″ of snow. With this next batch of snow moving through this afternoon and evening these locations should end up with a solid 6 to 10″ snowfall, except 4 to 7″ in the seacoast region of New Hampshire and immediate coast of southern Maine. This is on top of the storm from Friday, and there is the potential for yet another storm later Wednesday. This is great news for ski resorts, who desperately needed this snow to salvage an otherwise snow-less winter thus far.

Hard to believe we are receiving these snow events in one of the warmest January’s on record! While it hasn’t been much here in Boston, it has moved us out of the least snowiest starts to the season on record. It also goes to show us even with much above average temperatures, it still can be just cold enough for it to snow this time of the year. Add some elevation or living a bit further north, and a nice little wintry pattern has settled in. As I mentioned, another winter storm will be approaching the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The big question remains where does this winter go from here? In typical fashion, La Nina is not making it easy for meteorologists to answer these questions! There are many mixed signals being sent from Mother Nature for the rest of winter. I will elaborate more on my thoughts for February in my next blog. In the meantime, it does appear a change to a more wintry pattern is setting up for the last week of January and the start of February. Whether this persists for the rest of February and into March remains to be determined. However, my initial thoughts regarding a difficult exit to winter remained unchanged.

I’m curious to see what Dr. Judah Cohen has to say in his weekly blog. Dr, Cohen is an atmospheric scientist who specializes in the research of the polar vortex. This winter began with a weak vortex, only strengthen around Christmas time. Remember, a strong polar vortex typically means mild winter weather for us here in New England. This is because the vortex is spinning faster up in the arctic region, keeping it’s cold air trapped within itself. In recent weeks, Dr. Cohen has been studying the vortex carefully, and has been hinting that we  may see a SSW event take place. This is called a sudden stratospheric warming event. What this means is warm air floods the stratosphere, disrupting and elongating the vortex. Just this alone is enough to result in a period of severe winter weather across some parts of the United States.

However, there’s also some potential of a polar vortex split. If the vortex splits, it can result in catastrophic winter weather events, similar to the Texas disaster back in February of 2020. So far, there’s more support of disrupted and elongated polar vortex rather than a split. The good news for us here in New England, if there’s a split, the worst of the wintry weather would most likely target the Midwest and Plains region, possibly even Texas again. The pattern we’ve been in has featured protective ridging along the east coast, compliments of the La Nina. This would direct the most severe weather west of New England. However, if La Nina fades, that ridging may not be as strong heading into March this year. Something to keep a close eye on!

Before I get to my forecast, I wanted to bring up a quick weather history segment. Back in 2005 on January 22 and 23rd, a fierce blizzard coastal blizzard struck the region. Coastal locations received between 1 and 3 ft. While Boston received 2 ft, many communities along the north and south shores of Boston received 3 ft of snow. Bands of ocean effect snow kept pinwheeling in off of the ocean around the slow moving ocean storm, which persisted along the coast. The Cape really was ground zero with severe blizzard conditions, with hurricane force winds, blinding snow and 10 ft drifts!

With the recent wintry storms, I’m pleased to report ski conditions have been improving across the region! I will give this week a 9 out of 10! Expect snowy weather to continue for the balance of the afternoon, with many resorts picking up between 6 and 10″ of white gold. Tuesday should feature dry and fair conditions, with even a chance of some sunshine! Hot on the heels of this storm, another storm will be arriving later Wednesday and continue into Thursday.

This storm will be stronger than this past storm. Current projections show this storm developing across the lower Tennessee Valley then tracking northeast towards New England. The primary storm will then head towards the St Lawrence River Valley, but another storm will re-develop south of New England. At this point, the new low will strengthen, then track right across eastern Massachusetts into the Gulf of Maine then into the Canadian Maritimes.

While this track brings a snow changing to rain scenario for Boston, it looks like a very good track to bring many ski resorts another significant winter storm. Watch for snow to move in from south to north later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Snow will fall heavy at times across much of the region through much of the night. Later in the storm, some southern resorts may have to deal with mixing issues, if not even a brief change to rain. If there is any changeover, it should change back to snow, resulting in a net gain of snow.

In northern resorts such as the White Mountains and western Maine, the potential exists for one to two feet of snow, as a strong backlash moves through the region on Thursday with additional accumulations. Thereafter, there will be a break in the storms, with generally tranquil conditions coming up for this weekend!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity winter forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Expect rain to turn to snow in Boston this afternoon. An energetic storm developing off our coast means falling temperatures and moderate to heavy snow at times this afternoon heading into the evening commute. Watch for a treacherous evening commute across the region! Based on latest computer guidance, it looks like a general 2 to 4″ will fall across the Boston region.

Watch for snow to continue well into this evening but will slowly decrease in intensity then be over by 10:00 PM. Of course skies will remain cloudy overnight with lows dropping into the 20’s. Watch out for icy spots!

Tuesday will begin as winter wonderland across the region! It may start off gray and cold, but I’m expecting some sun to finally break through the clouds during the day. The good news it looks to remain generally dry, with high temperatures mainly in the 30’s.

Tuesday night will feature fair and cold conditions, with lows in the teens and 20’s.

The next storm system will be approaching on Wednesday. Expect clouds to rapidly increase after any early sunshine. Moisture from this storm will rapidly be streaming up the coast and may be arriving in Boston as early as mid-afternoon. This will have implications for the Wednesday evening commute! Expect it to be cold enough initially so when the precipitation arrives it will be in the form of snow. It may actually snow quite heavily for a time in Boston, which will impact the evening commute with a quick few inches of snow. Shortly after the evening commute, warm air will flood the coastal plain, changing the snow to rain.

First in Boston, then out towards Rt 128 and towards I495 later in the evening. Snow may persist deeper into the night beyond I495 heading up into southern New Hampshire, but even here I’m expecting a mix and change to rain. Before that happens, these areas could receive between 4 and 8″ of wet snow. Right now, I would say to expect between 3 and 6″ of snow in the seacoast region of New Hampshire before it changes to rain. Snow may persist longer in coastal Maine, but will mix with sleet and possibly change to rain for a time making for a icy mess within 20 miles of the coast. Interior Maine looks to remain all snow…and a lot of it!

As we punch into the warm sector here in southern New England, winds may dramatically increase along the coast, with southeasterly gusts of up to 50 mph. This is especially true across southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape.

This storm will be a fast mover, and most of the heavier precipitation should be over in Boston by early Thursday. The balance of the day should feature partly to mostly cloudy skies with a brisk wind and chilly temperatures, but not terribly cold. It remains to be seen whether the snow-pack will survive the rain here in Boston. If it does, we could hold onto snow on the ground heading into February. We’ll see!

At this point, I’m expecting dry weather for the period from Friday through Sunday across most of New England with seasonable temperatures. The active pattern may resume next week with colder weather and more snow to begin February? We shall see!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I’ll be sharing my thoughts as to what February and March may bring us this year! I’ll give you a hint…it looks interesting! I will also have a new ski and outdoor winter activity forecast. In the meantime, it looks like winter has finally made it to the scene…wonder what the final act will bring?

Be careful out there & thanks for reading!

Pete