Winter Interlude…1/16/23

Hello! Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! For a change, it’s been a bit on the wintry side for a better part of the holiday weekend. Friday continued the spring madness, with temperatures approaching 60 degrees with scattered rain showers. A subtle cold front slipped through the region Friday night, dropping temperatures back to seasonal levels overnight Friday. Many were surprised to see a period of light sleet mixed with snow early Saturday morning. Gray skies and northeast winds kept the rest of Saturday feeling more like winter. Another batch of light snow arrived later Saturday and continued into early evening as temperatures continued to cool. A slowly evolving ocean storm continued the wintry theme on Sunday, with snow falling on the Cape, which eventually pushed westward arriving in Boston by late afternoon. Occasional light snow fell in Boston overnight Sunday, while steady accumulating snow fell on Boston’s north and south shore where many communities received between 3 and 6″ of snow. Snow picked up in Boston early Monday morning, and fell heavily for a time, when the city received 3.4″ of snow for their largest snowfall of the winter season thus far!

Indeed, it was a bit of excitement for weather enthusiasts and snow lovers in an otherwise non-eventful winter up to this point. Believe me, it took everything in Mother Nature’s power to produce the light snowfall. Call this brief winter interlude an island of cool in a sea of warmth! In a very unusual pattern, cold air drained from the Canadian Maritimes down the Maine coast and into eastern Massachusetts. At the same time, a rather intense storm developed well off the southeast New England coast, which actually had sub-tropical features to it and developed an eye! This does not surprise me, as ocean temperatures continue to well above average off our coast for this time of year. Had this storm tracked a couple hundred miles closer to the coast, this could of been a real nasty winter storm for much of eastern Ma. As it was, the main brunt of the storm tracked north into Nova Scotia yesterday, bringing a crippling ice storm to our Canadian neighbors to our northeast. This ice storm is now retrograding westward and now affecting a good portion of Maine.

You may ask, how can it be freezing rain in Canada and Maine, and snowing in Boston? This is a very good question, and is quite a complex weather set up! Every so often the jet stream slows down, and is blocked from steering storms away from New England. This storm broke off from the main jet stream and has been meandering off the coast for days. A blocking ridge of high pressure prevented it from escaping to the east as it normally would do. As the storm began to intensify, it pinwheeled moisture and mild maritime air from the Atlantic Ocean northward into Nova Scotia, then westward into Maine. As the air descended into eastern Ma. it was just cold enough to fall in the form of snow across the area. Had the storm stuck around any longer, I believe milder air would of retrograted from Maine down through eastern Ma. possibly turning the snow over to freezing rain. That would of made for a mess!

With our first real taste of wintry weather this year, some have been asking me if this is the beginning of some kind of snow blitz for Boston? Remember, the epic winter of 2015 didn’t begin in earnest until January 24th back in 2015. We never know for sure, but for this winter, I would have to say no snow blitz is imminent for Boston. This is a completely different winter and weather patterns. For one, we are in a La Nina this year. That year we experienced a very active sub-tropical jet stream in a weak El Nino, coupled with a very warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific Ocean. This led to blocking patterns which in the Pacific Northwest, and allowed for arctic air to filter down into New England from Greenland. All these ingredients came together perfectly to produce record heavy snows here in Boston that winter.

While I’m not forecasting an epic snow blitz, it’s not out of the question we see a wintry recovery after such a paltry beginning to winter here in New England. In terms of winter, it’s still quite early in the season. One wildcard I mentioned early in the season to keep an eye on the sudden weakening of La Nina. Depending on when this occurs it could have a significant impact on our weather patterns heading into late winter and early spring. So despite having a mild winter so far, we still could experience a rough stretch of wintry weather sometime in February and especially March this year. While I’m still anticipating below average snow for Boston this winter, it may be enough in the end to forget the miserable start we had.

Looking over some computer data this morning, it appears the active pattern will be continuing for the foreseeable future. While major snowstorms are not anticipated here in Boston, the same can’t be said for interior New England, especially the ski resorts. So far, the mountains have received very little snow this winter, and has been plagued with warm rainstorms followed by cold dry air resulting in icy conditions.

Latest computer model guidance is indicating an increasingly active subtropical jet stream. At the same time, cold air will begin pressing south from southern Canada. While all this is happening, a persistent southeast ridge of high pressure will continue to influence the weather patterns in the Mid-Atlantic region extending up the I95 corridor into Boston. As storms form in the Tennessee Valley, they will begin to track towards New England. If the storms tracked south of New England, Boston would be in play for wintry precipitation. However, many of these storms look like they want to track inland, across southern New England, then off the Maine coast. A track like this would be a skiers delight, with heavy snowfalls for the mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire and much of western Maine! As I mentioned in previous posts, do not give up on ski season in northern New England this winter! It appears the best is yet to come!

While it’s looking like mainly rain and mixed precipitation events for now in Boston, it’s not out of the question one of these storms tracks a little further south than computer models are showing. If this happens, even Boston could experience a decent snowfall or two. At the very least, we must be on guard for a freezing rain or sleet event if any of these storms track just south of New England. While hard pressed to happen here this January, we may see something like this happen more likely during February. In the same thought, La Nina may have one more trick up her sleeve, sending Boston a final farewell gift of well above normal temperatures this coming February. It’s a bit of a catch 22. February is typically the warmest month in La Nina years. Yet at the same time, La Nina will be beginning to rapidly weaken. It’s a bit too early to tell from right now, but I can say both outcomes are on the table!

As mentioned earlier, ski resorts have been struggling to maintain snow on the slopes this winter. While snow-making has dramatically improved over the years, there’s nothing like natural snow! I will give skiing this week a 7 out of 10. It’s cold enough to make snow at night, and some natural snow may be on the way by the end of the week. As has been the pattern, the ocean storm missed most of the ski resorts past couple of days. The next opportunity for snow will arrive later Thursday into Friday. Before that, a small disturbances may result in some fresh snow across northern ski resorts on Wednesday. A stronger storm will approach the region later Thursday and continue into most of Friday. Rain or rain or snow mix will be arriving across southern zones later Thursday. As this storm tracks across southern New England, it should intensify and draw enough cold air into the system to change any mixed precipitation to snow. Snow should fall heavy at times Thursday night into Friday, before slowly tapering off by later Friday, but some snow showers could even linger into much of Saturday! Right now, it looks like a general 6 to 12″ snowstorm, but favored resorts may easily end up with well over a foot of snow. Jackpot zones look to be the Green Mountains of Vermont, White Mountains of New Hampshire and ski resorts in western Maine. Just in time for weekend activities!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to mention that the siege of severe storms which battered the beautiful state of California appear to be ending for the time being. There may be one more storm on Wednesday before an extended period of dry and tranquil weather arrives most likely for the rest of January. Wow, and what a barrage of storms it was. Trillions of gallons of water fell, and well over 10 ft of snow fell in the mountains, catastrophic flooding and mudslides. Tragically, my cousin lost her horse ranch to the flooding. Thank goodness nobody was injured, and all the horses were saved. They needed the water, but was it too much all it once? What a terrible price to pay.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. Watch for any lingering snow flurries to be coming to an end this evening. There still appears to be quite a bit of cloudiness spinning around the storm out in the ocean, so I’m not expecting any rapid clearing overnight. One thing to note, as sunset approaches, temperatures are expected to drop into the 20’s. Therefore, any slush that’s hanging around may freeze and create icy patches.

I’m expecting fairly tranquil conditions for the period of Tuesday through the first half of Thursday this week. A few weak disturbances will be tracking across New England bringing considerable cloudiness and a slight chance of some scattered showers on Wednesday. Otherwise, Tuesday may begin with some sun, but turn mostly cloudy during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be above average this week, mostly with highs in the 40’s, and lows in the 20’s and 30’s, so the snow that fell today will most likely be gone by the end of Wednesday.

Watch for a stronger storm to approach the region later Thursday. As the storm arrives, it may be just cold enough for a brief period of snow or sleet, this is especially true for locations north and west of Rt 128, and most especially I495. If any snow or sleet falls in Boston it would be very brief, as rain takes over for areas east of I95 along the coast. However, as mentioned above, as soon as you cross the boarder into the interior of New Hampshire, it may be a different story, where you may encounter accumulating wet snow, 10 miles inland from the coast. Even areas north and west of I95 in Massachusetts may continue to see some wet snow overnight, particularly north and west of I495. Heaviest accumulations will be in the higher terrain and ski resorts, but even lower elevations may need to break out the plows. As the storm pulls east of Boston on Friday, there’s a chance enough cold air slips back towards the coast, changing any remaining moisture to light snow even in the city. I’m not expecting any significant accumulations inside of I95 with this storm. Possibly up to one inch if enough moisture is left over on Friday. I will monitor the storm just in case there are any changes, and will send an update on social media if conditions warrant.

Look for improving weather conditions this weekend with a continuation of mild temperatures here in southern New England. It will be colder up north.  After the fresh snowfall it would be a great weekend to head to resorts for outdoor winter activities!

Well, that’s about it for now! If time permits, I will post a new blog a week from today. However, there’s still a chance I won’t be able to post until Monday the 27th. If any threatening weather is imminent, I will be sure to update everyone. When I do post next, I will have my outlook for the second half of winter! I will also have your new ski and outdoor winter activity forecast. In the meantime, what would winter be without a interlude or two!

Be safe & thanks for reading!

Pete

Unsettled…Late Week Snow? 1/2/23

Hello! Happy New Year, to all! I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday season! As has been the case the past several years, new year, same weather pattern! The weather could not have been any milder over the New Year weekend around here! Friday was exceptionally warm, with sunshine and temperatures in the low 60’s. Saturday was a touch cooler, but highs close to 60 on New Year’s Eve is more typical for early April. It was a damp New Year’s Eve with showers moving through, though temperatures remained unseasonably warm. New Year’s Day brought dry conditions, but a continuation of mild weather, with highs generally in the 50’s. Overall, it was a great weekend to go for a walk in the park, a hike in the woods, or remove outdoor holiday decorations if that’s what you prefer!

Overall, the weather has been quite benign. Not only through the holiday season, but generally over the past 11 months or so. With that being said, there were some interesting weather “events” in 2022. If you recall, last January was quite cold, with well above average snow. The year began mild, but quickly transitioned to a rather cold & snowy month. Boston received three feet of snow last January and was highlighted by a coastal blizzard at the end of the month. More snow fell in February, but winter abruptly ended when March arrived, with zero snow falling in Boston for the third March in a row!

Spring was a drawn out process with generally mild & dry weather which extended from March through June. One may of thought a cool summer was on the way, however those thoughts were quickly erased as July & August turned into two of the hottest summer months on record. Dry conditions from the spring intensified during summer, with extreme drought conditions developing across much of eastern Mass and southern New Hampshire. Incredibly, hardly any rain fell in these areas from the period of June through August. Indeed, it was one of the sunniest but driest summers ever observed in our region. I personally have never seen anything like it!

Temperatures settled back to seasonal levels in September, with some drought denting downpours. While October began on the chilly side, a massive ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) began building along the east coast sending temperatures soaring heading into Halloween and the first 15 days of November. At one point, Boston was some 9 degrees above average in November. Seasonal weather the second half of November chopped that departure down somewhat, but the month still ended up nearly 5 degrees above average.

Warm weather surged back into southern New England as December arrived before temperatures cooled off somewhat around the 12th, with Boston’s only dusting of snow for the season thus far. Much of northern New England received a significant snowstorm around mid-month, while a soaking rain fell in southern New England and along the coast. A much anticipated major pattern change heading into Christmas threatened to bring a major pre-Christmas blizzard to the I95 corridor up through New England. However, a sudden and dramatic last second shift tracked the “bomb cyclone” through western N.Y. up into southern Ontario. This placed all of New England on the warm  and rainy side of the storm.

Though the storm tracked west of us, it did bring quite an event to much of the northeast which included strong damaging winds and coastal flooding to New England, and a severe blizzard to Buffalo, N.Y. where as many as 39 people perished. As the storm tracked north of our latitude, cold air rushed back into New England bringing snow squalls and plummeting temperatures to many ski resorts just in time for Christmas. A three day cold snap brought the coldest Christmas in 5 years to Boston. Unfortunately, no moisture was left when the cold air arrived, leaving many in New England with their 5th green Christmas in a row. December also finished with above normal temperatures and well below average snowfall, which was contrary on what I had predicted for the month.

There was a  notable exceptions! In my post before Christmas, I mentioned the possibility of some parts of the Cape may receive a white Christmas due to the strong southwesterly winds blowing over the warm ocean, resulting in “ocean effect” snow bands. This was quite an unusual set up, as arctic outbreaks typically don’t arrive into New England from the southwest direction. But that’s what happened. The bitter cold outbreak plunged into the center of the country first, and arrived into New England from southwest to northeast! As soon as Friday evening a snow band developed and began snowing on Martha’s Vineyard and parts of the extreme south coast of New England. As what could only be described as a “Currier & Ives” event, steady snowfall continued on Martha’s Vineyard throughout the entire day on Christmas Eve through the night, and continued through the better part of Christmas Day as well! In a region of New England where they experience a white Christmas only 10% chance, it was a small Christmas miracle indeed! Much of the island was blanketed by up to 10″ of snowfall!

Overall, it was very sunny, warm and dry year in Boston. Surprisingly, with the snowfall of last January and February, the calendar year of 2022 ended up with slightly above average snow! Many may not even remember much snow falling at all. This is true. Any snow that fell last winter melted within days, making it seem like it never happened. Even after the blizzard at the end of January last year, the snow was almost completely gone just a week after. This is a signature of La Nina winters. Wild swings in patterns may bring brief periods of snowy and cold weather, only to revert back to warm southwesterly winds, that melt the snow quite quickly.

What can we expect for 2023? Well, La Nina (cold water off South America) looks to persist here into January. However, there are indications that La Nina is going to slowly fade away to neutral conditions as we head into late winter and early spring, then transition into El Nino (warm water off South America) sometime during summer heading into next fall. If this happens, there could be a brief window for winter to make an appearance this year here in February and early March? I’m still expecting below average snowfall in Boston this year, but there may be somewhat of a late rally from where we’re at now, which is practically zero. So far, Boston has only received .9″ of snow. We typically should have close to a foot by now. Every year is different, but slow starting winters have definitely been a signature around here in recent years.

While I’m expecting below average snow in Boston and along the coast, I still believe many of these storms are going to feature some significant snowfall for ski resorts in northern New England. This is a change from a rather lackluster 2022, which featured very little snow last winter, and one snowstorm this past December. we shall see, but I’ expecting this season to improve the deeper we get into winter.

While it’s been essentially snow-less along the I95 corridor so far this winter, the same can’t be said for the western part of the country and Alaska! This too is signature La Nina, with cold and snowy weather slamming out west and northwest, and mild and dry east and southeast part of the country. Ski resorts in Lake Tahoe region of California and Utah were pummeled this past weekend with between 3 and 6 ft of snow! Lower elevations received between 4 and 7″ of much needed rainfall! In return, these storms flood the rest of the country with mild Pacific air. I’m expecting these storms to continue through mid January.

What can we expect for this January in our region? January is typically our harshest winter month here in Boston, on average. Some years it’s February. I’m expecting a warm first half of January with below normal snowfall here in Boston. There are some indications of colder weather arriving for the second half of the month. Even with the colder pattern, I’m expecting January to finish slightly warmer than average. At this moment, I am not anticipating this cold air being met with moisture, therefore, I’m going with below average snow in Boston this January. Boston typically receives approximately 14″ of snow in January. How far below remains to be seen. Weather patterns are looking rather dry when it finally rns colder. There’s always the possibility of a singular snowstorm, even in a warm pattern.

You may ask, if it turns colder in Boston, why am I still expecting below average snow around here, but more snow for ski resorts? Good question! The weather patterns we are in right now are reminiscent of those of growing up in the 80’s. For many who love snow and winter, those years were considered the “dark ages” here in New England. From the winters of 1978-79 through 1991-92, Boston only received two above average snow years (not by a lot) and two near average seasons. All the rest of the years, some 10 of them, all featured below to much below average snow seasons! It was trademark in the 1980’s to see bitter cold weather in place here in Boston. As a storm approached, warm air would arrive just in time to turn the snow to rain, only to have the cold rush back on the departing storm with no moisture left. So yes, believe me, you can have patterns with below average temperatures and above average precipitation, and receive very little snow!

The climate up north is different. Even in warm winters, it still can be cold enough for snow. I’m anticipating it turning cold enough up north to feature some good snowstorms up north! For this week, I’m calling for a 6 out of 10 ski conditions. Unfortunately not really cold enough for snow making first couple days of the week. However, sneaky cold air draining down from Canada will stop the bleeding, with colder temperatures arriving later Wednesday and continuing through the weekend. There may also be an icy mix of precipitation later Wednesday into Thursday, then a brief burst of snow on Friday. It should be cold enough to resume snow making through the weekend. I would expect conditions to improve heading into the upcoming weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10.

Expect cloudy and mild weather for the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will be a couple degrees either side of 50 degrees with light winds. While the evening appears to remain dry, I’m expecting rain to move into the region from southwest to northeast overnight. It will warm enough so that it’s mainly all rain within 75 miles of Boston. There may be some brief mixing at the onset across the deep interior.

Look for a rainy day for your Tuesday, specifically the first half of the day into the early afternoon, though damp conditions may persist well into the evening as well. Temperatures will continue to be on the mild side, with highs in the low to mid 40’s, perhaps low 50’s across the southeast part of the state.

Rain will diminish Tuesday night, but watch for areas of dense fog as temperatures may match dew point readings which will saturate the air.

Wednesday looks to start off rain-free, however another storm will be approaching from the southwest. Watch for rain to be on the increase during the afternoon. Temperatures may start off mild, but a wind-shift to the northeast during the afternoon will slowly cool temperatures back into the low 40’s.

The forecast thereafter becomes a bit more complex. High pressure building across southern Canada will begin to funnel cold air down from southern Canada into New England. At the same time, more waves of low pressure will continue to track just south of New England on Thursday and Friday. No big storm is anticipated at this time. However, as temperatures continue to drop, we may need to introduce the possibility of wintry precipitation! For areas north and west of I95, including the seacoast region of New Hampshire, and the northern and western suburbs of Boston watch for colder temperatures on Thursday with patchy areas of freezing rain, sleet and snow. It still should be warm enough for plain rain inside of I95 including Boston during the day on Thursday, but some ice pellets can mix in at times.

The mix line should make its way closer to the coast Thursday night, bringing a light icy mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow overnight. No significant accumulation is expected, but road crews will need to be dispatched for icy road conditions. You may also need to scrape the car off heading to work Friday morning.

Yet one more wave of low pressure may pass south of New England on Friday. At this point, temperatures may be cold enough for a brief burst of snow across much of the area, before things diminish later in the day. Significant accumulations are not expected, but it could be enough for coatings to up to an inch or two especially across hilly terrain and higher elevations. In Boston, temperatures may be marginal for either wet snow or mixed wet snow, sleet and rain but a minor accumulation is still possible. Even in a warm pattern, it can still turn just cold enough for snow here in January.

As the wave of low pressure moves off the coast, expect drier weather and seasonably cold temperatures to move into much of New England this weekend. There are no other winter storm threats for our area for at least another 7 to 10 days after this week

Well, that’s about it for now! If time permits, I may on my regular schedule next Monday. However, if patterns remain tranquil, with no threat of stormy weather, I may wait until the following Monday. When I do post, I will be taking a closer look at our January weather, to see if there is any chance for our first snowstorm of the season. I will also have a new ski and snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, don’t be surprised if you see snow on Friday! It happens now and again here in New England!

~Happy New Year~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Christmas Forecast: Need I Say More? 12/19/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a tale of two seasons across the region. A large coastal storm delivered inches of windswept soaking rain anywhere inside of I495 including the Boston area Friday and early Saturday. If you live north and west of I495, beyond Worcester, you were most likely shoveling a few inches of heavy wet snow. Add a couple thousand feet in elevation across the Berkshires, and we’re talking a foot of wet snow with power outages.

For folks who live in northern New England, including Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine excluding the coasts, well, this storm was every bit as advertised! Many locations received between 10 and 18″ of heavy wet snow. But it was the ski resorts who really cashed in with many spots measuring between 20 and 30″ of powder! This storm was extremely disruptive, with many folks losing power due to the excessive weight of the snow. Some still are without power 4 days after the storm!

This storm was supposed to be the leading act for winter’s coming out party for the rest of New England. It was just this past Friday computer models were going berserk indicating a massive east coast pre-Christmas blizzard on the way for much of New England including coastal cities such as Providence, Boston and Portland, Maine coming up for this Thursday through Christmas Eve! This was to be followed by a dangerous arctic blast of historic proportions and the possibility of yet another snowstorm a couple days after Christmas. The anticipation was building!

Fast forward just 24 hours later. In what could only be described as one of the most remarkable turnarounds in potential winter patterns was witnessed by all meteorologists, amateurs and enthusiasts alike. I personally have never seen anything like it!  What was looking like a historic period of winter weather on the computer models, suddenly shifted 1000 miles to our west the very next day. This left folks in New England who were dreaming of a historic white Christmas, suddenly staring face to face to the one and only…Mr. Grinch!

What looked so promising just a week ago, has now gone poof!! I mentioned that I was leaning towards this scenario last week, but I must admit, I was caught up in the excitement of the prospect of a major storm before Christmas. While we are extremely fortunate here in New England, people who live around the Great Lakes including cities like Chicago, Detroit and even as close by as Cleveland and Buffalo will not be as fortunate!

With the primary storm tracking to our west, this will place much of New England on the warm side of the storm. A strong warm front will approach New England later Thursday night and pass north of us on Friday. This will bring southeasterly gales and torrential rains. As the warm front surges north of New England Friday, storm force winds of up to 60 mph will lash the region, along with tropical like temperatures close to 60 degrees! This will undoubtedly bring a multitude of watches and warnings for many parts of southern New England including high wind watches, coastal flooding and risk of power outages.

Meanwhile, on the colder side of the storm, winter storm warnings for snow & ice are already being hoisted. In addition, there will be a wide area where blizzard warnings will be issued. This will include the city of Chicago and may other surrounding Midwest cities. In this region. many will see up to a foot or more of windblown snow with near zero visibility and dangerously low wind chill values.

As the storm tracks into southern Canada, a very strong arctic cold front will whip across New England Saturday, bringing with it gale force southwesterly winds, plummeting temperatures, flurries and snow squalls, and the risk of flash freezes. Snow will be more pronounced across the Berkshires of western Ma. and the higher terrain of Vermont and New Hampshire. Oddly enough, folks down on the Cape may see their own little private snowfall on Saturday! With cold southwesterly winds blowing over the relatively warm ocean water, this may bring ocean effect snow bands across much of the Cape. Not 100% sure of this, but something to keep an eye on. These squalls may be strong enough to bring a few inches of snow to parts of the Cape and a surprise white Christmas to this part of New England who historically have the lowest chance!

Updating the latest white Christmas odds. Right now, I would say inside of Rt 128 including the Boston area has only about a 5% chance of a white Christmas. Outside of Rt 128 to I495 increases to 15% chance only due to the chance of a burst of snow Friday night when the cold air rushes in after the storm moves by. Outside of I495 chances only increase to 40% due to rapid snow melt on Friday. If you live in the Berkshires, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine away from the coast your odds stand at about 75% depending on elevation, and snow remains after the big meltdown on Friday. You will get a backlash of snow flurries and squalls Friday night and early Saturday which may whiten up the landscape once again. This decreases to only 15% along the seacoast region of New Hampshire and up to 25% chance along the coast of Maine. Obviously, this sadly has decreased significantly since my last post just one week ago today.

So far this fall and early winter, it’s been filled with disappointments for folks who enjoy and look forward to snow. After an extremely warm November, the cold weather has had a very difficult time arriving along the coastal plain here in December. Prospects of major pattern change to winter has not materialized. After looking at extended range computer models, I don’t see any chances for snow in Boston through the rest of the year! Looking out even further into January, I see mostly above normal temperatures and mainly rainstorms. It’s a brutal pattern if you enjoy wintry weather. Things may turn more wintry starting in February, but that’s only speculation at this point. I’m sure we’ll see some brief cold spells and a couple snow events in January, but I do not see any sustained or severe winter weather in our immediate future. Right now, I’m calling for above normal temperatures and below normal snowfall for January. January typically averages around 14″ of snow in Boston. Last year, we received a whopping 36″ in January!

For reasons I have mentioned before such a way above normal November temperatures, persistent third year La Nina, and the constant southeast high pressure ridge, I’m downgrading my snowfall expectations in Boston from 30 to 40″ down to 20 to 30″ for the season. Much of this may arrive during February and March. I am also increasing the temperature to be 2 degrees above normal this winter.

In reality, I may be too generous with the snow. From what I’m seeing, it may be on the lower end closer to 20″ or even lower, but let’s go with this as you never know, there could be a decent storm or two at some point. I will elaborate more on this in my next post when I have a bit more time, but this how I see things at this moment. All other locations especially along coastal New England cities and towns, you can deduct 10 to 20″ off the initial totals given in my initial winter forecast made back on November 21st.

I was overjoyed with the recent snowstorm for ski resorts in northern and western New England. Conditions have been over the top over the weekend, with so much natural snow and snow-making, I would give it a 10 out of 10! These good times will last through Thursday. Unfortunately, the Grinch who stole our white Christmas is also going to soak the ski resorts with a warm and windy rainstorm two days before Christmas. This is an absolute disaster! After the monsoon passes on Friday, expect bitter cold winds, and snow squalls to blast back into the region on Saturday. Winds will relax somewhat on Christmas Day, but temperatures will be very cold. Expect icy conditions to be transformed into acceptable conditioners by hard working groomers, who will chop up the ice and resume snow-making as temperatures drop. You’d be amazed at what they can do these days. As long as temperatures are cold enough, they can make upwards of two feet of snow overnight. Expect tranquil weather conditions much of next week, with very little natural snowfall, though temperatures should be cold enough to make snow overnight, conditions should stabilize for a decent week of skiing. Overall, I will give conditions a 6 out of 10 next week.

Now for your outdoor weekly winter activity and Christmas Day forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect clear and cold weather overnight, with lows mainly in the 20’s.

Watch for seasonable weather conditions for the period Tuesday through Thursday. Look for sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 30’s and low 40’s for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 20’s.

Thursday may start off sunny, but watch for increasing clouds during the day. Happy first day of winter! By days end it will be mostly cloudy and may actually look like snow is coming. However, as southeast winds begin to freshen expect mainly rain to move into the area overnight Thursday. There may be a very brief period of snow or sleet at the onset for areas far to the north and west of Boston. This too will also rapidly change to rain.

Expect a stormy day on Friday with possible delays! A strong storm will track west of New England during the day. This means we will be on the warm side of the storm. As a warm front pushes north of our region, watch for strong southerly gales during the day, with periods of heavy rain. In addition temperatures will approach 60 degrees across much of southern New England. With strong winds expected, there may be some power outages to contend with, along with possible coastal flooding issues along the south facing coastal communities of New England’s south coast. This is not a nor’easter, so there will be no coastal flood problems along the east coast of Massachusetts.

As the storm tracks north of our latitude, it will drag a strong cold front through our area. Due to the odd track of the storm, and the way the upper level pattern is setting up, the cold front will move through our area from southwest to northeast. Very odd track, indeed! Southerly gales will shift to southwesterly gales, and temperatures will plummet some 30 degrees from early evening to midnight. With this temperature drop, there may be some icy areas if there’s any standing areas of puddles or damp spots. Please be aware of this dramatic temperature drop and subsequent icy areas if you plan to be out and about Friday night. If you live north and west of I495, you also may encounter a brief change to snow, which may also makes roads icy. If you are planning to be up north, there may be a period of accumulating snow with high winds with snow squalls.

High winds and colder temperatures will continue for your Christmas Eve. The good news is that it looks like it will be mainly dry across our area, with no snow. However, as I mentioned earlier, there may be snow squalls blowing in off of the ocean for a time down across the Cape and the Islands. This may bring a touch of Christmas magic to those who don’t often see snow around Christmas. Expect snow squalls to diminish Christmas Eve night down the Cape, elsewhere it will be clear and cold out. Expect low temperatures to drop into the teens and 20’s region wide.

Expect a green Christmas for most again this year. Look for mainly dry and cold weather, with a brisk wind, but less windy than Saturday. As mentioned it will be cold, but nothing too severe. Afternoon temperatures may actually warm up in to the lower to mid 30’s. Colder than recent years, but just about what you would expect for Christmas Day. Next week looks mainly dry, with moderating temperatures heading into the New Year.

Well, that’s about it for now! Aside from Friday, weather patterns look to be unusually benign and uneventful for the rest of the year. Therefore, I will not be posting until sometime in the early part of January. This is most unusual, but is great news for snow removal and heating savings. When I do post next, I’ll be reviewing our weather we observed in December, and have a preview at what to expect in January. My forecast was incorrect for December. Over enthused computer models showing cold and storms never materialized. I will sharpen up my skills and try again for January! In the meantime, let’s say so long to the Grinch! There’s always next year to hope for a white Christmas!

Before I leave, I want to send thoughts and prayers to a longtime family owned business and staple in the Roslindale community. A horrific accident sent a car slamming into their building early Sunday morning. Thank God nobody was severely injured or killed. However, the building sustained severe damage, closing some 11 small businesses for the holiday season, and most likely deep into the New year. Sebastian’s Barber Shop and the Ragusa family have been serving the Roslindale and surrounding communities for nearly 60 years of dedicated service 6 days a week. The building was recently custom renovated which only adds salt to the wound. I hope & pray during this holiday season and beyond that good fortune will come back to them for all the years of hard work they have put into their business and the community.

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas & Happy Hanukkah!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Storms…Rumors of Storms 12/12/22

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! Overall, it was on the wintry side for a change. Saturday was cloudy and colder. It looked and felt like snow, but the bark was worse than the bite! Some areas on the South Shore did see snow showers during the day. Very light flurries did make it up to Boston by dark, but there was no accumulation to speak of. A small but potent storm approached New England Sunday. With cold air in place, this set the stage for our first widespread snowfall of the season here in the Boston area. I recall areas west of I495 received snow way back on November 15th, so this would be their second!

Snow rapidly spread across the state late yesterday afternoon. The initial surge brought a good thump of snow into Boston with generally one to two inches falling across the city, points west. Logan Airport recorded almost one inch of snow (officially .9″). I measured just about the same here in West Roxbury, perhaps slightly over one inch to be precise. Overall, it wasn’t much of a big deal here in Boston. However, the snow did come in heavily and accumulated quickly on the cold ground, which caught road crews somewhat off guard, leading to several accidents around the metropolitan area. As the evening progressed, snow dwindled to flurries in Boston, then was over by midnight.

As one traveled towards the western part of the state, accumulations were higher. Much of central Massachusetts received 2 to 5″, while western areas including the Berkshires received between 5 and 8″ of fluffy snow. This particular storm took an unusual track, tracking southeast from upstate N.Y. towards northern New Jersey, then offshore, essentially making a loop around eastern New England. This same storm will track over the North Atlantic and intensify into a very strong cyclone, lashing eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland with high winds, heavy snow and heavy rain.

The long awaited pattern change is underway! After a couple of weeks of unseasonably warm temperatures which began after Thanksgiving, the weather has taken a turn to colder conditions across much of New England. This is great news for ski resorts, who have been struggling to open due to the warm temperatures and lack of snowfall.  Many ski resorts received 3 to 6″ of snow last night, especially in the southern Green Mountains of Vermont, and southern ski resorts in New Hampshire.

The sudden change to cold can be attributed to the massive Greenland block that has been building in this region. The Greenland block is when high pressure (warm & dry) builds across Greenland. When this occurs, it forces cold air south into southern latitudes making it colder down here in New England. I know what you’re saying. If the air was warm up in Greenland, then why is it cold when it arrives here in New England? Well, it’s all relative! Mild air in Greenland is still VERY cold compared to our temperatures. So the air that arrives from Greenland is below our seasonal norms here in New England. On rare occasions, blocks become so intense, warm marine air retrogrades westward from the North Atlantic ocean then south into New England, mild temperatures can drop down into New England from the north! This happened in the 2009-10 winter, when the mid-Atlantic region was getting clobbered with snowstorms while it mostly rained up here in New England!

So far, I do not see this type of fortune for us this year in New England. However, I do wonder just how extreme the patterns are going to become for us here in New England. Watching computer models has been like playing the Roulette wheel. New computer information comes out every 6 hours or so. Each time you checked the new model run, it would be a completely different outlook from the previous run. This is do with a lot of variance in the atmosphere, on what exactly what to focus on. One run would show a blizzard for New England, only to show it 500 miles out to sea in the next run. Same with the cold. One run shows pipe bursting cold, then the very next run it’s back to springlike temperatures.

One thing is for sure, the western part of the country is locked into a very cold and snowy weather pattern, and has been since mid November, and will continue to be in for the foreseeable future. This includes Alaska, Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Mountain range in California, Idaho, Montana, Utah, you get the picture. In these locations, bitter cold weather, blizzards bringing feet of snow and high winds to all these locations. Anchorage, Alaska received 29″ of snow last week, and were expecting another 24″ today!

You may say, they’re used to it. You’d be surprised Anchorage’s winter climate is not as harsh as you may think. Due to its proximity to the ocean, the climate is somewhat tempered. However, it is still Alaska! Just the latitude of this state being so close to the North Pole can be very challenging. It’s cold there. Even when the forecast calls for above normal temperatures, it’s still cold enough to snow! At times Anchorage can be protected from surrounding mountains and the ocean, but not always. If one travels a few miles into the interior, forget about it! We’re talking severe winter conditions!

This was well teleconnected earlier this fall. Computer models honed in on areas I mentioned above, and have only intensified the harsh winter outlook. In a classic La Nina year, the most severe winter conditions are found in the northwest part of the country, and mildest in the south and east, sometimes including New England. The differences can be extreme some years. Back in the La Nina winter of 2011-12. New England barely had a winter, with record warm temperatures, hardly any snow and a very early spring. Meanwhile, Alaska was suffering through one of their coldest and snowiest winters on record.

I must admit, I am very intrigued by this Greenland block. Had it not developed, I could envision a winter very similar to that of 2011-12. As mentioned above, the block suppresses the jet stream south of New England. This introduces cold air into our region, and keeps us in game for winter storms. In my winter forecast posted a couple weeks ago, I mentioned a mild start to December, followed by a period of colder weather with a good chance of a couple winter storms.

I also mentioned the possibility of a blockbuster storm. Indeed the computer models have been showing this, only to change the solution 6 hours later. This kind of uncertainty leads to a lot of bickering in the weather community on who’s right and wrong. I’ll spare you the drama, and believe me, there’s a lot! From what I can see at the moment, it appears to me the brunt of the coldest air is going to plunge into the western part of the country, and slowly migrate east. By the time it gets to the east coast, it may be cold, but nothing too severe the way I see it. Again, this is shifting constantly on the models, and there are a lot of moving parts.

My take on this is models are seeing many solutions for a reason. Winter is reluctant to arrive in full force here in New England. This leaves us on the edge of the most severe conditions to our west (center of the country). If this is true, this would be good news for us! With an energy crisis unfolding, if we can keep the worst of the cold away from us, homeowners and business owners alike would be very appreciative!

Does this mean call off winter? No, sorry it does not. With the coldest of temperatures plunging in the middle of the country, this allows the jet stream to set up in a very volatile configuration. As the jet stream plunges in the center of the country, it’s going to ride up along the east coast towards New England. They call this a high amplitude pattern. It’s when the jet stream is in this configuration, we can see some of our largest storms.

We had one small storm last evening. A bigger storm is crashing into the western part of the country as we speak today. This storm is going to be a game changer. With the block established to our north is Canada, this storm is going to track due east across the country like a bowling ball. As it tries to head north into Canada, it’s going to transfer its energy towards the east coast on Friday. Latest computer model guidance is now tracking this storm just south of New England into the Gulf of Maine by Saturday morning. This would keep us mostly on the colder side of the storm with frozen precipitation, with the exception of coastal locations within 20 miles of the coast. If this verifies, we can expect a rapidly intensifying nor’easter to batter New England with heavy snow across the interior anywhere north and west of I495 and especially the higher terrain locations including all of the ski resorts, where I can see a general 1 to 2 ft snowfall out of this. Great news for ski resorts right before Christmas!!

At this moment, this does not look like a major snowstorm for Boston. However, we may not be completely off the hook! As I mentioned, models have been trending colder with this storm. It would not surprise me if we began as snow in Boston, transition to a mixture of sleet and change to a wind driven rain, only to change back to snow as the storm pulls away on Saturday. This would keep accumulations way down inside Rt 128 and along the coast, but there’s the still the potential of a couple inches from this storm in the city, depending on the track. If models trend any colder, it could be mostly a wintry type storm even close to the coast, with sleet, freezing rain and snow involved. If the storm tracks closer to the coast near Boston, more rain will be involved even out to 495.  The further you live away from the coast, the more ice and snow you will receive, most especially north and west of I495. Same holds true for friends and family up along the New Hampshire seacoast and into Maine. Expect an icy mix of precipitation which may change to rain, only to transition back to icy mix or snow Friday night into Saturday. I will monitor carefully as the week unfolds.

Storms, and rumors of storms. After this one at the end of the week, the potential exists for more storms heading into Christmas and beyond. Whether these are snow, rain or a mixture of the two is too difficult to tell at this moment. At this moment, the one next week may feature more snow even closer to Boston. However, this still does not guarantee of a white Christmas for Boston! If it’s not cold enough, snow can still melt in the city even just a couple days before Christmas.

Odds greatly favor a white Christmas for locations north and west of I495. Odds between I95 (128) and I495 look good, I would say 60% chance. Inside I95 towards the coast is always a wildcard. For this year, I would say there’s a slightly better chance than we normally have in Boston. There’s a chance for snow, but we’re right on the line for many of these upcoming storms. With ocean temperatures still so warm off our coast, many of these storms may change to rain along the coastal plain. I would call it at about 40% chance, which is slightly higher than the typical 25% it normally is. We shall see! The outlook for Christmas is a storm tracking west of us bringing rainy and milder conditions Christmas weekend. Yes, the yearly torch-mas could strike again! This is still early, though. Computer models can hardly get three days right as of late, never mind two weeks from now.

Suffice to say, there is potential for a storm around Christmas and shortly thereafter. One solution is for rain & mild temperatures Christmas Day. Yet another solution is for a storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico region, then slowly track north up along the east coast as full blown nor’easter. How would that be for a Christmas miracle? If I were a betting man, I would not place too much stock in the Christmas miracle solution. Our track record past several years have been warm and rainy on Christmas Day. I will be tracking all of these potential storms and have my Christmas forecast next week!

Cold may linger into the first week of January, but may ease thereafter. It’s too difficult to tell for sure what January will bring at this point, but odds favor a cold start. With January being our coldest month on average, it most likely will still be cold, just not severely so. February looks mild at this point, only to turn cold again in March. Overall, I’m fairly confident with my winter forecast calling for below average snowfall for Boston, but above average across the interior and mountains. Temperatures will average about one degree above normal for the three month period of December, January and February in Boston. Just in case I see any changes, I will write my annual winter solstice update next Monday.

With the arrival of cold air and natural snow on the way, conditions are finally looking up for New England ski resorts. As long as we avoid a nuclear meltdown before Christmas, I expect conditions to be improving heading towards the holiday week with several mostly snow events and cold enough temperatures for snow making. For this week, I would rate it a 7 out of 10. After the storm this weekend, we should have near perfect conditions by early next week. If you plan on hitting the slopes this weekend, plan on Sunday being the better of the two days. Saturday will be very wintry in the mountains, with heavy snow falling a good part of the day.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect sunny skies for the balance of your Monday. Temperatures will be cold, so bundle up if you plan on taking an evening walk! Watch for clear skies and cold temperatures tonight, with lows in the teens and 20’s.

The large storm I mentioned earlier, may actually send some early cloudiness down the coast across eastern Massachusetts. There also may actually be some light snow up in Maine tomorrow morning with a brisk wind. Otherwise, skies should be mostly sunny tomorrow, with highs near 40. Expect fair and cold weather Tuesday night, with lows in the teens and 20s.

A strong high pressure will be building down from Canada from the north on Wednesday. Therefore, expect fair skies but cold temperatures, when highs may barely make it to 32 degrees. With a brisk wind expect wind chill values to only be in the 20’s!

Thursday should feature somewhat milder weather with morning sun, followed by increasing clouds. Precipitation may move into Boston late Thursday evening and may begin as a brief period of snow. This should transition to mainly rain in the city by the time you wake up Friday morning. Right now I’m going with mainly a rainstorm for Boston and all points south and east including Cape Cod on Friday. As mentioned earlier, once you travel north and west of I495 you will encounter more a wintry mix with treacherous travel conditions. Substantial snowfall will be found in the Green Mountains of Vermont and White Mountains of New Hampshire extending into interior Maine. If the track of the storm stays a bit further south than I’m expecting, then frozen precipitation could be involved much closer to the coast. If it tracks closer to the coast near Boston, a mainly rain event will occur inside of I495 points north and south. Computer models have been trending colder, so it’s definitely something to monitor this week.

Any precipitation will be wrapping up in Boston by noontime on Saturday, followed by blustery weather with considerable cloudiness. Sunday should be more tranquil, with temperatures mainly in the 30’s and lower 40’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s post, I will have my winter solstice final update for our upcoming winter. I will also have a your all important Christmas week and Christmas Day forecast, as well as a new ski and outdoor activity forecast. In the meantime, don’t listen to all the rumors of storms out there…they’re not true unless it actually happens!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Winter 2022-23: Early Arctic Blast…But Will It Last? 11/28/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving holiday weekend! The weather was as good as you could ask for this time of the year, not only for New England, but for much of the country for that matter. It’s for the best. With so many people traveling for the holiday, inclement weather was the last thing people needed to deal with. While it was quite chilly leading up to Thanksgiving, the day itself turned out to be perfectly seasonable, with sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s. This is exactly where temperatures should be at this time of the year. It was a great day to spend time with family and friends, then watch some football on TV, or go out for a walk about town to burn off some calories!

My apologies for missing my post date last week. Not that anyone wants to hear it, but I’m going to tell you anyway. We’re short staffed in my store for three months, and the work load has been exceedingly high, especially leading up to Thanksgiving!  Regular posts may be erratic until things settle down sometime after the new year. Until then, if severe weather or a winter storm threatens, I will be sure to update everyone with a Facebook post. It’s just quick and easy for me to keep in touch with everyone through that outlet.

After a record warm first 12 days to November, the balance of the month certainly has cooled off quite a bit. At one point, Boston was sitting at plus eleven degrees departure for the month. This is almost unheard of, but has become a more frequent occurrence in recent years. A significant pattern change arrived shortly thereafter, and departures have been decreasing to something more manageable the second half of the month. Nevertheless, the month is going to end up being a warm one when all is said and done. In fact, Boston reached 60 degrees at midnight last night, and may reach 60 degrees once again on Wednesday! This will only serve to pump up the final number for November. I would not be surprised if we ended up close to 6 degrees above normal for the month! This is exceptionally warm, and may challenge some records. In the interim, Boston finally fell to 32 degrees on November 19th when Logan Airport recorded a low temperature of 31 degrees.

I mention November temperatures quite a bit, as I carefully study temperatures, storm tracks and precipitation during November to help me determine my winter forecast. Not only has this November been one of the warmest, but it has also featured very little in the way of stormy weather. On average, November is one of Boston’s wettest months with around 4.5″ of precipitation falling. I don’t know the exact number as of yet, but I believe it’s only about half that number as of today. Boston normally observes at least a few flakes of snow in November. Indeed there was a storm about a week before Thanksgiving that actually brought accumulating snow to areas north and west of I95. The storm began as some wet snowflakes even in Boston before rapidly turning to all rain. According to my records, the last accumulating snowfall at Logan Airport in November was way back in 2014. Since then, they recorded a measly .1″ on November 15th 2018. I mention this because I also look at how much snow falls in November to help me determine if it’s going to be a snowy winter or not. There was 0″ of snow this November.

I have a weather saying probably used by others as well, “What happens in November, the winter will remember.” This November will end up very warm, with no snowfall, and less than average precipitation. A marked shift to the pattern mid-month is something to keep an eye on. This shift tells me a highly variable winter is on the way, with periods of wintry weather, punctuated by stretches of benign, mild periods. How boring!

Last year, many forecasts called for below average snow in Boston. I saw things a bit differently where we could end up with close to average, if not a touch above. My final forecast called for between 40 and 50″ of snow. Boston ended up receiving 54″ of snow which is 5″ above the seasonal norm of 49″. This year, many forecasts out there are calling for close to average leaning below average snow for Boston.

While last year the patterns were fairly straightforward, it’s much more complicated this year. A third year La Nina is currently in control of our weather patterns. We had a La Nina last season, and for the 2020-21 winter as well. La Nina’s are typically stingy for snowfall in Boston. Out of 10 La Nina’s, only one would have well above average snow and colder than normal temperatures. Three of them will feature close to average snow and temperatures, similar to what we experienced last winter. Four La Nina’s feature below average snow and above normal temperatures, and two would feature well below normal snowfall with well above average winter temperatures, similar to 1998-99 and 2011-12.

If we look at the past two La Nina’s, 2020-21 featured quite an active winter, with the Polar Vortex plunging into Texas that winter resulting in catastrophic freezes and ice storms. Boston had its share of winter, but faded quickly come March. We ended up with 36″ of snow that year, which is below average, and slightly above average temperatures with a very warm January. You may remember a sizeable snowstorm a week before Christmas that year. A white Christmas looked to be a lock. However, an abrupt change in the pattern brought a monsoon storm on Christmas Eve, with torrential rains, temperatures in the 60’s, southerly gales and snow eating fog. A horrible combination if you are a snow lover. Come Christmas morning the Grinch stole our white Christmas when all snow completely melted from seacoast to the Canadian border!

Last year winter was centered more along the the New England coast, with slightly above average snow for Boston, but well below average for the interior and ski country. Overall, it was a bust up there, and somewhat snowy along the coast. One thing about last winter, after it snowed, it quickly melted with warm southwesterly winds. This is classic La Nina signature. It can snow and be cold, but it never lasts long. Warm weather is always lurking close by to eradicate any snowfall. We had zero measurable snowfall last December, so yet another green Christmas!

La Nina (cold than normal water off the South American coast) winters tend to be colder and snowier northwest ( Alaska, Pacific Northwest and north central U.S. such as Montana and North Dakota) where the trough of low pressure resides (cold & stormy). Conversely, winters tend to be warmer and drier southeast part of the country with a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) including the mid-Atlantic region sometimes riding up along the east coast including Boston. So far, this La Nina has been behaving exactly how you would expect it to behave. It’s been cold and snowy out west, and warm and dry east.

For this winter, I’m expecting La Nina to maintain its strength through January. Thereafter, I’m expecting it to weaken heading into next spring. Depending on how quickly it weakens, will depend whether we have a spring or not. Right now, I’m expecting La Nina to begin to weaken after the new year. Depending upon how quickly and how much it weakens, may determine on whether we have quite an end game to winter come March. Remember, Boston has had no accumulating snow in March for three straight years, along with very warm temperatures. This is very unusual as Boston averages 8″ of snow in a typical March. While nothing is guaranteed, I believe the patterns are setting up for a much colder than normal March this year along with a couple good snowstorms.

Before that, I’m expecting a slightly colder than normal December this year with above average snow in many locations. Many computer models are showing signals for below normal temperatures this December, then again in March. If true, would make the first below average December since 2017. Boston typically averages about 9″ of snow in December. We had 12.1″ in 2020, 0″ inches last year. In typical La Nina fashion. we may get off to a fast start with colder than normal temperatures arriving around the 10th of December. A couple storms may track just south of New England bringing a couple chances of accumulating snowfall leading up to Christmas.

In this type of pattern, several waves of low pressure would occur with over running precipitation events (warm over riding cold). This may include snow, ice or a mixture of the two. If the storm tracks too close to the coast, warm air from the ocean would eventually result in rain getting involved along the coast. Dare I say we have a chance of a white Christmas this year??? According to latest computer model guidance, I would say we have a 50/50 chance from this long range here in Boston, with even higher odds across the interior. So many things can change from now until then, but at least there’s a chance!

With all that being said, the pattern for December needs to be watched carefully. One way we can suppress La Nina forcing is to develop the Greenland block. When high pressure builds over Greenland, it forces cold air south into the the eastern U.S. if the block retrogrades in the classic position, it can buckle the jet stream along the east coast, sometimes resulting in a slow moving nor’easter. This would temporarily squash the southeast ridging, and be replaced with a deep trough in the eastern part of the United States. Computer models have been showing a significant block developing heading into December. Details are still somewhat murky, but if this block develops as advertised in the favored location, the possibility of a blockbuster winter storm along the east coast does indeed exist in the December 12th through 18th time period.

One thing of note. If the block does not materialize, La Nina would remain in control leading to yet another blow torch December with above normal temperatures, and very little chance of snow. This is something that I’m not forecasting at this time.

As the block fades, I’m expecting milder weather to return at or around Christmas. This should lead us into a mild start to the new year. I’m expecting January and February to feature above average temperatures and below average snowfall in Boston. It’s not like it won’t snow at all, but with the average being around 14″ for each month, I’m expecting half of that for each month respectively.

The real wildcard is what happens in March. Computer models are already signaling March to feature below average temperatures from this far out. If La Nina fades and weakens, this could open the door for quite a harsh end to winter, with below average temperatures and most likely above average snowfall. This could linger into spring, which would be somewhat of a payback for the warm fall.

Typical La Nina winters are warmest along the coast, and colder across the interior. This was opposite last year due to certain other atmospheric factors. I’m expecting a reverse back to typical La Nina conditions this winter. Therefore, I’m expecting near average snowfall in our ski resorts this winter. I’m not saying it’s going a banner year, but I’m expecting it to be better than last year. Already many resorts have been battling warm weather, rain and lack of natural snow. Watch for ski season to kick into full gear beginning after the 10th of December. We may experience a couple meltdowns this winter even in ski country, but the overall theme should be better than the snow drought from last winter.

Putting this all together, here are some snowfall projections I’m expecting this winter. For the city of Boston and immediate surrounding areas, I’m expecting between 30 and 40″. I may increase it to 40 to 50″ or decrease it to 20 and 30″ at the solstice update depending if I see any changes. With the ongoing La Nina, and well above average November temperatures, and ongoing drought, I’m leaning below average snowfall for much of coastal New England, even up the seacoast region of New Hampshire and southern Maine. Portsmouth, N.H. averages approximately 50 to 60″ of snow annually. I’m expecting 40 to 50″ this winter. The further one lives to the south and east from Boston, the less snowfall you’ll likely see. Cape Cod averages 20 to 30″ annually, for this winter I’m expecting 10 to 20″.

Across inland locations, you may do a little better than along the coast. In places such as Worcester, where normally 60 to 70″ falls, you may end up with between 50 and 60″ this season. Same goes for the Manchester, N.H. region, where you may see slightly more than Worcester, but may fall short of an average season. As you add elevation, across the ski resorts, many locations should experience near average snowfall this winter, where many resorts average between 150 and 200″ of snow. Some of the favored up-slope locations can receive up to 350″ of snow in a normal season.

In summation, when you average all three months together, I’m expecting a slightly warmer than normal winter this year in Boston, with below average snowfall. With that being said, expect some extreme swings in temperatures and patterns ranging from wintry to springlike. This also doesn’t mean we can’t receive a good snowstorm. We did back in the La Nina winter of 2020-21. This is one of my top analog years to compare similar winters to. As always, there are going to be unexpected developments and surprises! It never works out exactly the way you thought it may. That’s the wonder of it all! I will update this forecast one more time at the winter solstice in case I see any new developments!

Needless to say, ski season is off to a slow start. The good news is November is not known for heavy snow & cold, though it can happen for sure. Colder weather the second half of November has enabled many resorts to begin making snow to allow them to open. Expect improving snow making conditions beginning after December 8th. After the 10th, there is the potential for several storms with natural snowfall to really get the ski season off and running!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect partly cloudy skies for the rest of your Monday. It will be turning cooler, with temperatures dropping into the 40’s. Tonight will feature clear skies and slightly colder temperatures, with lows dropping into the 20’s and 30’s.

Tuesday will be noticeably colder, with sunshine and a brisk wind. Expect high temperatures only in the low 40’s. Though just slightly below normal, It will feel a bit colder with the wind.  Tuesday night will be fair and on the cold side, with lows in the 20’s and low 30’s.

A strong storm system will cut to our west on Wednesday. Watch for increasing clouds during the day. Squally showers and gusty winds will approach the region later Wednesday afternoon and at night. Early indications are pointing towards some wind gusts of between 40 and 50 mph, especially across the southeastern portion of the state. Temperatures may briefly spike to 60 degrees overnight Wednesday.

As a strong cold front blasts through the area, it may bring with it a squall like line with briefly strong winds, and possibly even a thunderstorm! As the front passes through, winds will abruptly shift from southerly to westerly. At this point temperatures will begin to fall as we usher in the month of December! Happy first day of Meteorological winter!

Thursday will feature gusty winds, especially in the morning. I would wear your winter coat, as temperatures will struggle to reach the low 40’s, but with a gusty wind will make it feel much colder than what it actually is.

Thursday night will be fair and cold, with lows in the teens and 20’s region wide.

Friday will be a more tranquil day, with mainly sunny skies and lighter winds. Temperatures will respond back up into the mid 40s’. Increasing clouds overnight Friday ahead of our next storm system.

Watch for another mild push on Saturday, with more squally showers passing through and gusty winds. A washout is not anticipated, but expect inclement weather at times. Temperatures may make another run at the low 50’s.

As the front crosses the region, expect yet another blast of chilly air for Sunday. As the storm intensifies to our north, it will send windy and colder weather with partly to mostly cloudy skies, especially in northern New England. Snow showers and squalls are possible in the northern mountains and ski resorts. Temperatures will be in the 30’s and lower 40’s from north to south.

More fast moving storms are likely to track close to New England next week, each one trending colder and colder. Eventually, one of these will track south of New England with cold air in place leading to our first snowfall of the season!

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next post, I will be watching to see if the pattern indeed turns wintry in December! I will also talk a bit more about the winter forecast, in case I left anything out! In the meantime, this winter may live up to New England’s famous saying…if you don’t like the weather, just wait a minute, and it will change!

Thanks for reading & stay safe!

Pete

The Seasonal Plunge Has Arrived! 11/14/22

Hello! I hope everyone is doing well & enjoyed their weekend! Wow! What can I say? I have run out of superlatives to describe the weather we have been enjoying the past several weeks, or several months for that matter! Yes, there was a brief dip in mid October, but that’s expected. What was not expected was the incredible run of Indian Summer conditions the last week of October ending just yesterday! The peak may of been this past Saturday when the remnants of Nicole blew through the region with some gusty winds and tropical downpours. Earlier computer model projections had this storm passing south of New England with a cold rain and northeast winds. Subsequent runs kept tracking the storm further and further west of New England.

This type of track placed much of our region in the warm sector of the tropical feature. As the storm passed north of us on Saturday morning, we punched into the dry sector early in the day. A dry west wind was a down-sloping wind, coming in off of the Berkshires. So while temperatures cooled out there, they warmed up along the coastal plain. And warm up they did! Boston reached yet another record high temperature of 76 degrees on Saturday, under sparkling sunshine! This sent thousands of folks out of doors to the parks, stores and beaches! The party came to a rather abrupt end yesterday, as rain fell during the morning hours and temperatures were a good 25 degrees colder than Saturday.

Channel 4 meteorologist Eric Fisher has been all over the statistics for this unusually warm siege! The warm weather records keep dropping like flies year after year. It appeared we were finally on track with a near average fall this year. After all, September was about average, and October was running close to average until about the third week. After that, all bets were off! Boston averaged approximately 6 degrees above average the last week of October, and a whopping 11 degrees above average the first two weeks here in November! In fact, Fisher tweeted out that it was the warmest first 10 days of November in recorded history in Boston! We are also tied with the most 70 degree days in any November. Currently we stand at 6 and only half way through the month. It’s not inconceivable that we nick 70 degree one more time before the month is through. Keep in mind this is only at Logan Airport. Other communities such as Norwood, Ma. have eclipsed 70 degrees nine times so far this November! Not good for skiers, but welcome news for heating demand concerns!

It’s been so warm, the growing season has continued in parts of the city and along the immediate coastline. While I did observe a freeze where I live in West Roxbury back at the end of October, other parts of the city including Logan Airport have yet to fall below 35 degrees this season. This has resulted in a very stubborn end to the growing season. Reports of flowers still blooming, grass being mowed, and leaves remaining on trees are some of the latest reported in decades around here. It’s no wonder, with temperatures hovering near summertime levels, it’s almost impossible for them to go dormant for the season!

By the way, there are different levels of frosts and freezes. What I observed at my location was what is consider a light freeze. This is when temperatures fall to 32 degrees under a very shallow layer of cold close to ground-level. We had ideal radiational cooling that night with clear skies and very light winds. Therefore, not everything went dormant for the season! We can experience a touch of frost, a light frost, medium frost, and a heavy frost. Obviously the colder it is, the heavier the frost. Likewise we can also experience a light freeze, a freeze and a killing freeze. This is when the temperature drops to 32 degrees or lower. How severe the freeze is is determined by how long the temperature remains at or below freezing. A killing freeze occurs when temperatures drops into the 20’s for a number of hours.

For those interested, Logan Airport typically falls to 32 degrees on average around November 4th. Some years are sooner, some later. While the ocean modifies the climate along the immediate coast, 95% of the rest of New England have already received a freeze a several weeks ago. Areas closer to the coast, but just enough inland received a light freeze at the end of October. Cape Cod is a different story altogether! While a hard freeze has not arrived just yet, you would be surprised to know several communities have received frosty conditions. This is as a result of clear, calm nights which is ideal conditions for radiational cooling. This is when the heat of the day escapes up into space, allowing cool dense air to settle near the ground. In ideal conditions, communities on the Cape can be colder than urban locations on the mainland, despite being surrounded by the ocean!

With the new weather pattern settling in, all of this is going to be water under the bridge come tomorrow morning. With the exception of some areas on the Cape, all of us, including Logan Airport and downtown Boston are going to plunge below freezing tonight, with many locations falling into the 20’s, with a hard freeze across much of the Boston metro area. This is 10 days behind schedule. For downtown Boston and the immediate coast, while behind schedule, this is not too unusual. There have been years when we waited until December for the first freeze to arrive…now that’s late!

With all this warm weather, this begs the question whether this has any relationship with the upcoming winter? Well, seeing that I use November temperatures and precipitation patterns as a correlation for my winter forecast, I would say yes! Hard to believe we are now just one week away form my preliminary winter forecast for 2022-23 season. As I have done in previous years, an update to the forecast will be issued at the winter solstice just in case there are any significant changes. Past couple years have worked out quite well. I wouldn’t say exactly on point, but close enough to say I was pleased with the results. I believe two years ago the forecast called for between 30 and 40″ and 36″ fell at Logan. Last year the forecast called for between 40 and 50″ and 54″ fell at Logan. So slightly off, but the big picture for the winter was predicted quite well. It takes quite a bit of time & effort to piece everything together to give a seasonal forecast.

Despite the incredibly warm start to November, I’m seeing signs that winter will make an appearance this year. With that being said, I’m not expected anything too severe along the coast this winter. As in typical La Nina fashion, winter will be more harsh if you live across the interior of New England and higher terrain locations. Skiers should see a better season than last year, with interior & higher terrain locations in Maine being targeted for a snowier than normal winter! And when it’s snowier than normal in Maine, that’s a lot of snow! While the coast will see its fair share, the ocean temperatures are just too warm this year and will keep accumulations down with many mixed precipitation events. Already, interior Maine received 3 to 6″ of snow last evening, and another snowfall is on the way for Wednesday! I will explain all the details in my forecast one week from today!

As for the rest of November, it certainly is looking colder than the first half. However, it will not be as cold as it was warm. Therefore, while the plus 11 degree departure will be chopped down over time, I’m still expecting November to finish quite a bit above average. Two years ago, November finished approximately 3.5 degrees above average. Last year, it was just a measly .1 degree above average. After the chilly two weeks coming up, I’m expecting the departures to come down to reasonable levels when all said and done. I’m thinking November may end up close to what it was two years ago, which is anywhere between 3 and 4 degrees above average at months end. You would need temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s for departures to come down closer to neutral, which I do not see happening the rest of this month. This will make three straight above average Novembers in a row.

After very little rainfall so far this month, the pattern is going to try and become a bit more active. For anyone traveling or living across interior northern New England for much of Vermont, New Hampshire and interior Maine, it looks like we have our first widespread snowstorm on the way on Wednesday! A low pressure will be forming across the lower Tennessee Valley and track northeast up the eastern seaboard, passing just south of New England and possibly over Cape Cod before tracking into the Gulf of Maine. With cold air in place, this is a good track for many ski resorts to receive a widespread snowfall of between 3 and 6″. As the storm intensifies in the Gulf of Maine, snow may fall heavily across the interior of Maine with more than 6″ of wet snow possible. As the precipitation arrives later tomorrow night, even southern areas in Massachusetts may begin with a brief burst of wet snow in areas outside of Interstate 495, especially across the Worcester hills, where there may even be a slushy coating to an inch of snow. Same is true across Connecticut away from the coast and western Mass where snow may accumulate 1 to 3 inches before changing to rain. No snow is expected inside of I95 from Portsmouth N.H. to Boston to Cape Cod, aside from a random flake or two.

Beyond that, cold winds will usher in cold but drier weather into New England later this week into this upcoming weekend. Conditions next week look to be fairly dry and cold leading up to Thanksgiving. Weather patterns may ease on Thanksgiving Day itself to allow somewhat milder weather for New England, but so far it only looks to be fairly normal which is 40’s and low 50’s this time of year. Of course, this is all preliminary. Computer models have been all over the place for next week, ranging from frigid cold, to warm rains and even a pre Thanksgiving snowstorm! I will have my official Thanksgiving outlook next Monday along with my winter forecast!

Well, ski season has gotten off to a very slow start! With colder air finally moving in, resorts were able to fire up the snow guns for the first time yesterday. The good news is that it looks like the second half of November will feature somewhat below average temperatures. It should be plenty cold at night to make snow. I believe many resorts will be able to open up for the annual Thanksgiving weekend. As I mentioned earlier, many resorts will be receiving their first widespread snowfall on Wednesday with 3 to 6″ of natural snow falling! This is great news for Killington ski resort in Vermont, who will be hosting the World Cup ski tournament beginning on November 25th. With round the clock snow making and some natural snow, they should be in good shape to host this event. Thank goodness the warm weather was at the start of November, and not the end!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Overall, a nice seasonable week with just Wednesday being inclement.

Expect mainly sunny skies for the rest of your Monday. It will be noticeably colder, with highs mainly in the middle 40’s. Tonight will feature clear and cold weather. Definitely the coldest night of the season, with widespread lows in the 20’s, though a few cold spots may dip down into the upper teens across the deep interior! Warmest locations will be in downtown Boston and Logan Airport where temperatures will fall to a low of approximately 31 degrees.

Tuesday will feature another sunny day, though you may notice some increasing high clouds during the afternoon. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in the mid 40’s.

As mentioned earlier, a storm system will be tracking up the coast tomorrow night. This storm will bring widespread rain and snowfall to much of New England beginning later tomorrow night after midnight, and continuing for much of Wednesday. If it arrives soon enough, you may see a few wet flakes in the Boston area which would quickly change to rain. If you live outside of I95 points north and west, there’s a better chance you may see a brief period of wet snow at the onset, which would be washed away by the time you wake up Wednesday morning. As you move deeper across the interior of Massachusetts, especially across the hilly terrain outside I495, there will be some overnight snow which may accumulate an inch or two. Even here, any morning snow will be changing to rain as the morning progresses washing it away. If your travels take you across western Massachusetts and the Berkshires, it’s in these locations you may run into wintry conditions at least the first half of Wednesday with a few inches of snow accumulating especially across higher terrain locations with slippery travel.

Further north, it will be a different story on Wednesday. Anywhere on a line from Brattleboro Vermont, Concord N.H., to Portland Maine (interior) points north, Wednesday may prove to be a snowy day, with wet snow falling much of the day with moderate accumulations likely, especially across elevated locations. Precipitation will wind down Wednesday evening with clearing skies.

For the period of Thursday through Sunday, I’m expecting generally dry and cold weather, with highs mainly in the low to mid 40’s, and lows in the teens and 20’s. It will be colder in the higher elevations allowing for snow making to continue in those locations.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my official 2022-23 winter seasonal forecast. I will also have your all important Thanksgiving week travel forecast as well as Thanksgiving Day forecast itself. I will also have an update on the start of the New England ski season. In the meantime, the seasonal plunge has arrived, but there’s always the annual Christmas Torchmas to look forward to!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Spooktacular! 10/31/22

Hello! Happy Halloween, to all! I hope everyone had a chance to get out and enjoy this beautiful weather this past weekend! After a very frost start, Saturday turned into a beautiful day, with plenty of sunshine, and high temperatures very close to seasonal levels. Sunday was touch warmer, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, and temperatures in the low to mid 60’s. With peak fall foliage moving through our area, it was a perfect weekend to spend time outdoors working in the yard, walking in the park, or taking a drive to view the spectacular foliage!

Hard to believe it’s already Halloween! While today is tranquil, this is not always the case on Halloween here in Boston. We have been as warm as the 80’s on this date, and as cold as the 20’s! We have also seen tropical like storms blow through our area, and have also received snow! It was just two years ago when the Boston area received a record setting snowstorm the day before Halloween when 4 to 6″ of snow fell across the city! Logan Airport recorded 4.5″ of snow, making it the largest snowstorm ever recorded in the month of October! Needless to say Halloween was cold that year, with many kids needing to wear the winter coat over the costume! They also had to dodge piles of snow as there was very little melting on Halloween after that unusual storm. I remember it remained cold for the few days after Halloween that year, but then a remarkable turnaround occurred!

As I mentioned, it wasn’t too long after that storm that the weather pattern abruptly flipped, sending the cold air out west, and a bubble of warm air here in the east. And what a bubble of warmth it was! I believe from approximately the 7th of November through the 14th Boston had high temperatures in the low to mid 70’s, each day! It was true Indian Summer conditions, with sunny skies along with gentle mild winds. Temperatures cooled off thereafter, but never really became cold that November. Despite temperatures nearly 8 degrees above average the first half of the month, Boston finished that November approximately 3 degrees above average for November. This iwas a mild November, but nowhere near as warm as it could of been!

I bring this up for two reasons. One, we may experience something similar to 2020, this coming weekend! Two, I talk a lot about November temperatures as this is one signal I use to help me determine what kind of winter we’re going to see here in Boston.

Could this be called Indian Summer? Yes, I believe it will surely qualify as Indian Summer! Though Logan Airport has not recorded a 32 degree temperature, nearly 90% of the rest of New England has! In fact, temperatures fell to as low as 33 degrees where I live in West Roxbury early Saturday morning, with many towns just outside of Rt 128 recording temperatures in the upper 20’s and low 30’s with a widespread freeze/frost. As a reminder, Indian Summer is defined as a warm stretch of sunny days with light winds, after the first freeze. Yes, you could get technical and say inside Rt 128 has not recorded a 32 degree low temperature, north and west has! In general, frost and freezes are running about one to two weeks later than normal this year in the Boston metro area.

While October began on the cool side, the last 10 days have featured mainly above average temperatures. By no means was it a torch this month, but I believe the month will finish slightly warmer than normal here in Boston. With several strong cold fronts moving through, Boston finished October 2022 wetter than average. It was also the first month since last February to feature more precipitation than normal in the city. Indeed it was a very dry stretch, bottoming out in July when received less than one inch of precipitation for the entire month! Since then, we have been increasing rainfall each month across the region, with this October being the wettest so far.

With all of this rain we’ve been receiving, this begs the question to whether our drought is officially over? To this I would say in some areas, it’s over. However, autumn rainfall has not been dispersed evenly across the region. Some locations received copious amounts of rain, wiping out the drought in just a few weeks. From Boston points northeast along the coast towards Cape Ann, we haven’t seen the excessive rainfall amounts other areas has seen. Therefore, the drought persists in these locations. It’s much better now, but there’s still a deficit of between 5 and 8″ for the year in in Boston and along the coast. This is much improved from the 12″ deficits from earlier in the year. With the lower sun angle and cooler temperatures, there’s not as much evaporation occurring this time of the year, so the drought concerns have lessened.

Will we put the nail in the coffin with the drought this November? Possibly! In some ways, November looks like it could be the complete opposite to October. I’m expecting warmer than normal temperatures for the first 20 days of the month. However, there are signs the last 10 Days of November could turn colder than normal. Overall, I’m expecting this November to average one to two degrees warmer than normal, despite the colder finish. This is mainly due to the departures for the first 15 days are going to be so outrageous. The cold will chop into these departures, but I believe November will still end up being a slightly warmer than normal month around here. If the cold really pushes in and persists, it could end up close to neutral. However, if the cold holds back, it could end being as warm as 3 or 4 degrees above average. This would be great news for our upcoming energy crisis. Yes, in case you haven’t heard, electricity is going up 60% compared to last year, and gas and oil around 40 to 50% respectively. Pray for a warm winter!

Right now, I don’t see an overly wet signal this November. Average is around 4″ of precipitation. This looks good to me at this point. Leftover tropical moisture may surge up the east coast in about 10 days from now leading to a soaking rain across the region. Later in the month, it may turn cold enough for a storm to produce some natural snow in the mountains and higher terrain of New England. Overall, it looks like a somewhat slow start to ski season this year in New England. I’m really banking on that switch to cold later in November. If that doesn’t happen, it could be a very rough start to ski season, which was coming off a below average season last year. Warmer than normal ocean temperatures are preventing winter from arriving too early here in New England over the past several years. I don’t see any evidence to make me think it will be any different this year.

By the way, on average, precipitation does not fall as all rain in November here in Boston! When I was growing up, I could always count on seeing our first snow in November! Wouldn’t be much, but a good inch would fall overnight to greet you in the morning. It seems as if it’s more difficult to see snowfall in November in recent years. There was a November snow back in 2018, but it melted so quickly the next day, you wouldn’t even remember that it happened. It seems we see snow in October more than November in recent years!

Back in 2014 I remember an early season winter storm which brought heavy snows across the interior of New England just before Thanksgiving, when 7 to 12″ of wet snow plastered the region. While this was a traveling nightmare, the snow made for a fantastic winter wonderland for Thanksgiving Day. We celebrated Thanksgiving up at my sister Pam’s house in the seacoast region of New Hampshire where 7″ of wet snow made it feel more like Christmas than Thanksgiving! We had a warm fire that day and it felt like the middle of winter! It still happens some years, just not as much as it used to in my opinion!

Interesting to note, that winter ended up being Boston’s snowiest winter on record with the historic January and February epic snowfall! I believe there most definitely is a correlation to November snowfall and how much snow falls the following winter.

For Boston, we average about 0ne inch of snow in November. Very much like April, we can receive a good snow where a half a foot of snow can fall, then have several years with no snow. Due to the modifying influence of the Atlantic Ocean, the snow turns to rain or sleet in Boston during November, with little accumulation in the city. However, further inland, more snow falls in November than along the coast, where many towns average 3 or 4″ of snow. Up in the mountains, November is a winter month, where heavy snowfall can occur when enough moisture collides with cold air. Overall, November is a transition month which does introduce the likely-hood of seeing frozen precipitation in our region!

I’m not sure whether Boston sees any accumulating snow this November. It doesn’t take much for it to happen. A leftover cold air mass just needs to meet up with advancing moisture and we can easily get an inch or two of snow. It’s all about timing in November. I don’t see any snow in our area for at least the first ten days of the month. It may be a different story last 10 days of November? It’s too difficult to tell at this point. A lot has to change with the upper air pattern for there to be even a chance. There’s always a chance for wintry precipitation around Thanksgiving time. If I would take an educated guess at this moment, I would say there’s a 40% chance of an accumulating snowfall this November in Boston. Let’s see if this percentage moves up or down as we move through the month. I will be monitoring the weather charts very carefully and keep everyone updated!

We are now just three weeks away from my official 2022-23 winter forecast! As I have done in previous years, I will write a comprehensive outlook for what we may expect for our upcoming 2022-23 winter. Since winter is so long and weather patterns abruptly change, I will also update that forecast at the winter solstice, just in case there are any changes.  As of today, I’m still gathering information, reading technical discussions and constantly checking computer model data. At the moment, Most computer models are forecasting a slightly milder than normal winter around here.

However, I must tell you, this preliminary outlook is very fragile. There are other computer models, though somewhat less reliable, showing a harsher, colder winter ahead with plenty of snow. Remember, a slightly milder than normal winter does not mean warm the entire winter! It may mean a cold stretch of weather, followed by stretches of milder weather. With this being another La Nina year, I am leaning towards this solution as of today, but the final forecast has yet to be determined. With that being said, ocean temperatures can change abruptly, altering early season forecasts from warmer to colder and vice versa. Winter forecasts have become increasingly unpredictable in recent years. One aspect of this winter I’m closely monitoring is if the ongoing La Nina collapses early. If this happens, winter could be more fierce later in February and March of next year.

Well, it’s been a colorful fall foliage season across New England, but as they say, all good things must come to an end. Seeing reports on Twitter, it’s been a brighter than average year across many parts of the country, not just here in New England. I would give this season an 8 out of 10. Ideal temperatures and not too much wind helped keep the leaves longer on the trees for us to enjoy.

With this being Halloween, this will be my final fall foliage report of the season. Fall foliage is still peaking across much of eastern Massachusetts right now and entering the city of Boston and along the coast. I’m still waiting for the red sugar maples to reach intense red colors. With the frost we received Saturday morning, bright red colors are still possible well into the first week of November in Boston. Even after, hardy oak trees offer up deep gold and reds before they turn brown. That along with the yellows and golds that will sweep through the city over the next 5 to 7 days will result in a late flourish of colorful foliage within Rt 128. Enjoy, as it won’t be long before winters first gust of wind blows all the leaves off the trees!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will give this week a 9 out of 10! Beautiful Indian Summer conditions which will only get better the closer we get to the weekend!

Expect a mixture of sun and clouds the rest of your Halloween, along with mild temperatures. Highs should top off in the low to mid 60’s across the region.

Watch for mainly dry conditions for all the kiddos heading out for ‘trick or treating’ this evening. With temperatures only slowly cooling off, I don’t believe a heavy jacket will be needed. Temperatures should only slowly fall into the upper 50’s after dark. Do not be surprised if you feel a few light sprinkles, but that would be the extent of it. Later at night, more towards tomorrow morning, a few showers will be crossing the region.

Expect a few areas of rain and showers Tuesday morning, mainly focused south of Boston. Happy November! Otherwise, watch for sunny breaks to develop during the afternoon with highs mid 60’s. I’m expecting dry and cool weather Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 40’s rural areas and low 50’s in urban zones.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a stellar day with sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Clear and cool weather Wednesday night, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

A massive area of high pressure will dominate our weather from Thursday through the upcoming weekend. On the east side of the high, there may be some weakness to the air flow which may allow for slightly cooler weather to drift in from the northeast both Thursday and Friday. Highs will be held to the lower 60’s, which is still slightly above normal! Both nights will feature cool temperatures, but certainly not cold, with lows in the 30’s and lower 40’s. Of course there may be some upper 20’s in the normally low lying colder communities…but it will be November after all!

One last hurrah to summer this upcoming weekend!? Possibly, but you never know! As the massive high pressure moves east, similar to a Bermuda High in summer, expect full blown Indian Summer weather to arrive on the heels of gusty southwesterly winds on the backside of the high. Late channel 5 meteorologist Dick Albert used to call this flow “backside warmth!” With near 100% of the possible sunshine, expect temperatures to warm up into the at least the mid 70’s to possibly even upper 70’s for both days! Expect the mild to warm weather to continue well into next week through at least November 12th before I see any chance of seasonal temperatures arriving.

Well, that’s about it for now! With limited time, and tranquil weather patterns ahead, I will be holding off my next post until two weeks from today on November 14th. At that time, I will be sharing more details about my upcoming winter forecast. I will also have a long range outlook into Thanksgiving week, and perhaps my first ski outlook. Wow, time is flying! In the meantime, nothing spooky about the forecast for the first third of November. There may be more of a chill in my forecast, when we speak next!

~Have a safe & happy Halloween!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Brief Autumn Chill…10/17/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After the deluge Friday morning, the weather turned beautiful once again just in time for the weekend! Saturday was as good as it gets around here in autumn, with deep blue skies, colorful foliage and warm temperatures. Sunday was slightly cooler, but was still above average, and very pleasant to be outdoors. Some decorative late afternoon cirrus & alto-cumulus clouds made for a colorful sunset across the region. Overall, I would give this past weekend a 10 out of 10 for enjoying outdoor activities!

Halfway through meteorological fall, and I would say this has been the best in years! So far, temperatures have averaged almost perfectly normal to where they should be. This is a big change to the endless summer temperatures we’ve observed in recent years. At the same time, we’ve had copious amounts of rainfall so far this fall as well. As is typical in La Nina years, rain has come in short intense bursts.

Many communities received a couple months worth of rain at the start of September. Then last Friday a very strong cold front delivered several more inches in a short time to much of the Boston area. Was it enough to eradicate the drought? No, the drought lingers in much of eastern Massachusetts. However, no doubt the drought has improved. The recent rains have moved us out of critical extreme drought, into something much more manageable.

This fall is a perfect example of the weather doing what the weather wants to do. Computer models were indicating warm weather & drought would persist this fall.  Well, thank goodness they were off the mark, as many communities have emerged out of extreme drought with heavy bouts of rainfall. A complex frontal boundary will bring more heavy rains overnight across eastern Massachusetts. Since the start of September, cold & warm fronts have been intensifying on their approach to eastern Massachusetts, delivering heavy rains. This is in stark contrast to the pattern over the summer, when fronts would fizzle on their approach to our area.

Patterns like this led to one of the most spectacular summer patterns in recent memory! WBZ meteorologist Terry Eliasen tweeted an amazing stat a couple days ago showing how nearly every weekend since the beginning of summer has featured sunny skies and warm temperatures. This pattern of beautiful weekends has continued now into the fall! In fact, this weekend coming up looks to be a carbon copy of this past weekend!

How long can this pattern go on for? Well, checking over some of the computer data this morning, I can see this beautiful autumn weather lasting at least through the end of October. While patterns remain fairly stable across New England, the same can’t be said for the rest of the country. An unusual cold pool of air has been marking time just across the border in south central Canada. High pressure building over Greenland is forcing this cold pool to plunge southward this week. Fortunately for us here in New England, this cold pool is pointed more south than east. Along with this cold unstable air, an early season snowstorm is expected for the upper peninsula of Michigan, where some areas could receive up to 3 ft of snow! Even locations further south close to the Great Lakes may see up to 6″ of wet snow. This is mostly caused by the cold unstable air moving across the still relatively warm lake waters, along with upper level energy.

This cold pool of air will dive south first, bringing early frosts and freezes to areas of the deep south before Boston. As the cold pool begins to lift out, it will rotate through New England in modified form. Nonetheless, Boston’s suburbs, perhaps even within the city limits stand the chance of their first frost of the season upcoming this week. Be prepared, there’s going to be some chilly mornings around our region this week! I will go over just how chilly in my forecast shortly.

Too early? Not at all! As I mentioned earlier, everything is about on track this fall. October is not too early to talk snowfall in the upper Midwest and Michigan. Snow would be unusual for our area in October, but not unheard of. Frost is not too early to talk about around our region in October. In fact, if we receive a frost this week, it would be right on time for Boston’s suburbs, which typically receive their first frost between October 10th and 20th. My neighborhood experiences its first frost around October 23rd. If you live right along the immediate coast including Logan Airport, you should be safe from frost this week. These locations typically don’t receive a frost or freeze until the first week of November on average. It’s all part of the step down process to winter.

Some friends ask me what the difference is from receiving a frost and a freeze? Frost can happen just about everywhere across interior New England during late summer and autumn months. Frost is typically more gentle on tender vegetation. Here’s something many folks don’t know about frost. A frost can occur even when air temperature do not read 32 degrees 10 feet off the ground. In fact, frosts may occur even when air temperatures show 35 or 36 degrees. This is because on clear calm nights, cold air is more dense and settles to the ground. So while the air temperature may read mid to even upper 30’s in some cases, the temperature right at ground level can be 32 degrees, creating frosty conditions.

A freeze on the other hand typically means the official end to the growing season. A freeze occurs when a stronger cold air mass arrives, and air and ground temperatures fall to 32 degrees for two consecutive hours. Most plants and lawns go dormant for the season after the first freeze. Freezes can occasionally occur in Boston the last 10 days of October, but typically wait until the first week of November to be considered official.

After the first freeze, the atmosphere prepares itself for the first snow! As mentioned above, snow in October here in Boston is unusual, but not unprecedented! For some reason. snow in October has been increasing in occurrence over the last 20 years. It used to be unheard of in years past. However, as recent as 2020 Boston received a record snowfall of 4.5″ the day before Halloween! In fact, it seems snow has become more common in October than November when it used to be the exact opposite! I remember growing up, I would always look forward to our first snow of the season in November. It would typically happen overnight, with a nice dusting of white the next morning. At the very least, we should expect snow in the air sometime in November. Logan Airport averages 1.3″ of snow in November.

In recent years, it seems as if we bypass wintry precipitation in November, and more often than not wait until January to see our first real snow! Very strange cycle, indeed! I believe as recent as last year we received no snow accumulation all through November and December. Our first snowstorm of the season arrived in early January, followed by the large snowstorm at the end of the month.

Things could be slightly different this year. Though I have taken the bait in recent years when computer models have shown early cold and snow for us, only to be left with zero accumulation! Last year was a perfect example. I remember computer models showing the potential for storms and snow, only to keep backing off on the prediction until snow finally arrived in early January. The problem is our weather patterns these days are closely linked with the warmer than normal ocean temperatures. These keeps winter at bay especially here in eastern New England until at least after the winter solstice arrives, many times a lot longer than that!

Early season patterns this year has featured a strong ridge (warm & dry) out west, and a fairly deep trough (cool & wet) here in the east so far this October. If this pattern were to remain moving forward, yes, I would say we have a chance at wintry precipitation in November this year. However, recent trends show this pattern reversing the last 10 days of October, with a cold trough developing out west, and ridge and warmer temperatures returning here in the east. This is good news for my good snow friends William and Brett who reside in Colorado, but not so good news for me here in New England!

Overall, this is fairly typical pattern swings early in the season. If this pattern were to persist deep into November, I would have my doubts for any chance at a snowy winter for us here in Boston this year. However, computer models are predicting another flip at the start of November, bringing colder than normal temperatures back into the east at that time. Many computer models are forecasting a chilly November for New England this year. If this holds true, ski resorts can begin making snow and with any luck they could receive some bonus early season natural snowfall, which has been lacking in recent years. I’ll have my November outlook for everyone in my next post.

Time for my third fall foliage report. I’m very happy to report much of the region is experiencing a better than average fall foliage season this year! Folks reported that the heavy rain last Friday really triggered a burst of beautiful colors across the region! While peak has past in the White Mountain region, many lower elevation locations across interior of Maine and New Hampshire have reported brilliant colors with near peak foliage. Photos from Vermont

Mike Haggett of Pine Tree Weather up in Maine posted some spectacular pictures of red sugar maples in the coastal town of Kennebunk, Maine. Absolutely stunning! With the light frost coming up this week, I believe similar scenario will play out right here in the Boston area last 10 days of October. As it stands right now, you don’t have to travel too far from Boston to run into peak fall foliage conditions. As is the case many years, the foliage runs into the maritime coastal barrier, which modifies the coast within 10 miles of the ocean, generally along and east of I95. If you live or travel west of I95, you will run into peak foliage. Even around my neighborhood, I see many trees changing beautiful colors! A nice little ride to take right here in our area is the Turtle Pond & Eneking Parkway Eventually, when conditions allow, peak foliage arrives along the coast sometime between October 25th and November 7th. For the city of Boston, it’s typically right around Halloween. This looks to be right on time this season, with better than average colors moving through the city this year.

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect mainly cloudy skies for the rest of your Monday. There could be some scattered showers moving through our area at anytime from now through this evening, so if plan on taking a walk bring a rain jacket or an umbrella. Temperatures will warm to near 60. A strong cold front will be crossing the region overnight. Expect showers and some embedded downpours to cross our region between 10 pm and 4 am. Temperatures will remain mild with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

Expect improving condition on Tuesday. Any early morning showers will move off the coast and end across the region. If the front moves far enough offshore, we may see some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs mainly in the upper 50’s. Tuesday night should feature clearing skies, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s region wide.

Expect similar weather conditions for both Wednesday and Thursday. Each day should feature partly sunny skies and highs in the 50’s. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 30’s in rural areas 10 miles away from the coast, to low 40’s along the coast and in urban areas. Some communities just inside of I95 may experience a light frost on roof tops & cars. There will be areas of frost in many communities outside of I95, but a killing freeze is not anticipated at this time.

As quickly as the chilly temperatures move in, they move out! Watch for slightly milder weather to arrive on Friday, with sunny skies and highs near 60.

This weekend looks similar to last weekend if you can believe it! I’m expecting generally sunny skies on Saturday, with highs warming into the mid to upper 60’s! Sunday should feature similar conditions, perhaps slightly cooler, but only by a few degrees.

From what I can see, milder than normal weather may continue through the end of October. If true, October may actually end up being slightly warmer than normal month here in Boston. Quite a change from the first half of the month. This would be good news on energy demand such as heating and electrical costs for homeowners & businesses.

Well, that’s about it for now! Depending if there are any significant weather changes, I may wait until two weeks from today, Halloween Day for my next post. From there on, I should be back on a weekly schedule as we enter the winter season. In my next post, I will have my November outlook, and a review of October. I will also focus on sharing some of my thoughts for this upcoming winter, as well as another fall foliage report. In the meantime, we can handle a brief autumn chill…it’s when it becomes permanent it becomes a problem!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Peter

Touch of Indian Summer? 10/3/22

Hello! Welcome to October! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! While it remained mostly dry around here in the Boston area on Saturday,  the same could not be said for people who were down the Cape! Remnants of Ian combined with strong high pressure to our north resulted in a hybrid type nor’easter, with heavy rain and strong winds. The storm backed off on Sunday, but winds remained strong across coastal areas, with many locations gusting past 50 mph! Yet another storm has developed off the mid-Atlantic coast today, lashing New Jersey with heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous coastal flooding.

So it begins…nor’easters, frosts, fall foliage all say welcome to October! Right on cue, the weather patterns seemed to have transitioned from summer to autumn quite nicely this year. Many people were saying September felt cool this year. Well, after the summer we had, I can see why they would think that.  Actually, September ended up just two tenths of a degree below normal in Boston. While this is not significant, it was a lot cooler than the past several Septembers. The fact July and August was so far above normal, made September feel a bit on the cool side this year.

Keeping with the theme of this year, September ended up with below normal rainfall in Boston. This was not the case across much of the rest of southern New England. There were two events during September which brought a whole seasons worth of rain to parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. For many parts of this region the drought was eradicated or significantly reduced. The same can not be said for us here in the Boston area. Extreme drought lingers along coastal Massachusetts extending up along the North Shore. With no significant rain in the forecast for the next two weeks, the drought will increase in areal coverage, and intensity.

Many folks have been asking me what this could mean for this upcoming winter. This is an interesting question. While my official winter forecast will not be posted until November 21st, I will be sharing my preliminary thoughts on what we can expect this winter, leading up to the forecast. It’s about this time of the year I begin collecting information from various sources to help me determine what kind of winter we are in for.

One thing I look at is precipitation patterns, not only during the summer, but especially during our fall months of September, October and November. Just so you know, I believe there is some truth in drought during summer means more precipitation during winter & vice versa. Nothing really scientific about it, but I’m a big believer in trends in weather patterns.Wetter than normal patterns beginning in November tend to persist through much of the upcoming winter.

I also closely monitor temperatures. A cold October does not always translate to a cold winter! In fact, many times the complete opposite occurs! Cold Octobers are typically followed up by warm Novembers. If November averages more than 3 degrees above average, a winter with less than average snow is most likely across the Boston area. This does not happen 100% of the time. There have been outliers, with warm Novembers and above average snow the following winter. What I look for is a sudden pattern change to colder than normal weather sometime in November, preferably around Thanksgiving time. A snowfall of greater than 2″ in November also significantly increases the chances of a snowier than normal winter!

If by chance both October and November average below normal temperatures, watch out! Statistics show Boston is most likely in for a snowy winter when this occurs. Back in 1992 both October and November featured below average temperatures. The following winter Boston received 84″ of snow!

What am I expecting for this October? Well, the latest forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center did an about face on the preliminary outlook showing the entire country painted in above normal temperatures, especially here in New England. The latest outlook issued on October first shows a much cooler look for the eastern part of the U.S. even showing an area of below normal temperatures likely for much of the mid-Atlantic region extending up into parts of southern New England. If the start of October is any indication on how the month will transpire, I would agree with their forecast. I have noted that there’s been quite a dramatic shift in the weather pattern here in early October.

Whether it persists into the upcoming colder months remains to be determined. However, this shift in the pattern is bringing warm, dry conditions out in the western part of the U.S. and cool and unsettled weather to eastern part of the country. If this pattern were to persist, we can expect an early winter this year, with December being unseasonably cold. If I see more evidence that this pattern is going to continue, I will let everyone know to prepare for increased heating demands and snow removal equipment.

Last week I mentioned October may feature some wild extremes. I still believe an early season storm is possible, with accumulating snow in the interior and mountains. Some computer models showed this feature this upcoming weekend, but backed off. However, another follow up system around mid-month is showing something similar. It’s too difficult to tell if it may snow along the coast this October. Snow across the interior and higher terrain is not unusual in October.

Snow in coastal regions in October is unusual, but not unprecedented. Two years ago, Boston received between 4 and 6″ of snow the day before Halloween, bringing a very unusual white Halloween to the area! Along with NOAA, I believe temperatures will be at or slightly below average in Boston this October. Accumulating snow in October along the coast usually translates to a mild winter. If you like snowy winters, I wouldn’t be rooting for snow in October!

Back in 2020 when we received the snow at the end of October, Boston ended up with 36″ of snow that year. This is below average, but much more than we typically receive when we observe accumulating snow in October. Most years with October snow we receive only between 12 and 18″ the following winter.

Now that we’re in October, the end of the growing season is imminent. Areas outside of I495 can expect their first frost on average between October 1st and 10th. Right on schedule, there was frost in this area last night. Suburbs of Boston inside of I495 but outside of Rt 128 typically see their first frost on average between October 10th and 20th. Coastal areas inside of I95 typically see their first frost between October 20th and 30th. Logan Airport first freeze typically happens the first week of November. These dates are averages, and can vary quite a bit, earlier or later one year to the next. I mentioned in an earlier post my first freeze typically occurs around October 23rd, where I reside in West Roxbury. Northern New England away from the coast has already received a killing freeze and frosts.

With the cooler temperatures, I’m happy to report the fall foliage season is kicking into high gear! Reports coming in from up north say the leaves are changing quickly, and from most information I can see, the colors are great! Expect peak fall colors to rapidly begin heading south, with peak conditions to be in the White Mountain region of New Hampshire and Green Mountain region of Vermont this weekend! This will be the weekend to take a fall foliage drive about 2 1/2 hours north and northwest of Boston to see peak fall foliage. Thereafter the color wave will steadily begin to move south, reaching the Massachusetts border around October 20th, and the city of Boston by October 30th. Before then, there will be plenty of beautiful trees changing colors.

If you can’t take the trip up north, no worries! The beauty of fall foliage season is that it will come to you! Cooler temperatures this past September and now into October are helping leaves to change colors even around the Boston area. Our summer drought is no doubt making leaves turn a bit earlier this fall. You will notice bright bursts of colors around the area over the next couple weeks, until peak moves through the area between October 20th and 30th, which is right on schedule this year. Because of the drought, colors will be more vivid this year, but the foliage season may be shorter than other years. So enjoy the colors while we have them!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

As stalled storm off the mid-Atlantic coast will bring mainly cloudy skies and windy conditions from the period of today through Wednesday. It will cool, with high temperatures mainly in the 50’s during the day, and 40’s at night. In addition, there may be a few periods of rain and showers pinwheeling southeast to northwest over the next couple days. Conditions may slightly worsen later tomorrow into Wednesday as the storm makes its closest path to New England. It won’t be raining all the time, but we could run into damp conditions on Wednesday with sheets of drizzle and periods of rain. If the storm tracks a bit further south than expected, we will have little to any rain. We could use any rain we can get, because after this storm pulls away, I see no meaningful precipitation in our area for the next 10 days or so. Northern New England will not see any rain from this storm.

As the storm pulls away early Thursday, expect clearing skies and warmer temperatures to arrive for both Thursday and Friday. I know it won’t be official in the Boston area, but do believe it will feel like a touch of Indian Summer?? Temperatures these days will warm into the low to mid 70’s, with light winds! Enjoy it, because a cold front will cross the region Friday night, and bring with it a taste of real fall-like temperatures. Watch for highs to be in the 50’s and low 60’s on Saturday, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s. with fairly widespread frost in many suburbs. Sunday will be a touch colder, especially in the morning, with highs only in the 50’s. Expect mainly sunny weather and a touch milder weather on Indigenous Day (formerly Columbus Day), with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! I may or may not have a post on the holiday next week. It depends whether I’m away or not, or if I see any inclement weather heading our way. If we don’t speak next week, the next post will be written on October 17th. In that post, I plan on discussing more about our upcoming winter. I will also have an updated autumn timetable and a new fall foliage report! In the meantime, enjoy the brief warmup later this week, you never know when it will be our last!

~Happy Birthday to my sister, Val! (October 10th)~

Thanks for reading & be safe, everyone!

Pete

Storms North…Storms South! 9/26/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Saturday was the pick of the weekend, with deep blue skies, and crisp autumn temperatures. Early morning low temperatures were in the 30’s and 40’s region-wide. A warm front approached the area on Sunday. This brought somewhat milder temperatures and generally gray skies. There was some rain overnight, but the bulk of it fell south of Boston. Whether you were camping, hiking or just doing a fall clean-up, it was a pleasant weekend to be outdoors!

While we were enjoying pleasant September weather, the same can not be said to our friends in eastern Nova Scotia and southwest portions of Newfoundland. Hurricane Fiona, which lashed Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic earlier in the week, raced north and slammed into Atlantic Canada, bringing with it 100 mph winds, coastal storm surge and record low barometric pressure. In fact, Fiona ended up being Canada’s most intense storm ever recorded! While significant damage was widespread, some isolated towns experienced catastrophic damage, with whole homes being swept out to sea! Had this storm tracked 500 further west, New England would of received an awful storm…possibly similar to the 1938 Hurricane!

People are surprised when hearing of hurricane and tropical storm warnings in areas with such high latitude! Yes, if the storm moves fast enough, it can maintain its tropical characteristics. As it turned out, Fiona was captured by a very energetic trough of low pressure, as it transitioned from a tropical storm to a extra-tropical cyclone, much like our winter-time nor’easters.

Similar to New England, Atlantic Canada sticks out into the Atlantic Ocean. In fact, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are actually more susceptible to tropical storm activity than we are, as they are essentially a giant peninsula and island! Fiona had its eye on this region the second it turned north after hitting the Dominican Republic. After side swiping Bermuda, the storm accelerated reaching speeds of 46 mph, making a direct hit in eastern Nova Scotia a certainty. The end result was a historic battering, which will not be forgotten anytime soon.

For us here in New England, I keep saying, it’s only a matter of when not if a hurricane is going to strike. As the years keep passing by without a hit, the worse the storm is going to be. I don’t wish this storm on any region, especially where we live here in New England. However, the fact of the matter is, our coastal regions have become over-developed since the last major hurricane hit the region, back in 1960. If a storm such as Fiona were to hit New England head on, the damage would be in the billions of dollars.

I’m spending more time on hurricanes because, after all, September is hurricane season! The peak of hurricane season typically occurs around September 10th on average. Up until recently, this has been a very sluggish start to the season. However, activity suddenly blossomed the past couple weeks, which may continue well into October this year. Despite September being the month to remember for hurricanes here in New England, history has shown severe hybrids storms hitting New England during October as well. So we’re not completely out of the woods here until late November.

All concerns this week turn to newly formed Hurricane Ian. Currently, this hurricane is off the coast of Cuba, and slowly moving north. As it moves into favorable conditions, the storm may rapidly intensify, and could suddenly explode into a category 4 as it tracks towards the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. People who live anywhere form Tampa Bay north to Tallahassee Florida should begin preparation for coastal flooding storm surge, hurricane force winds and fresh water flooding due to excessive rainfall. Computer models have been fairly steady with their projections, bringing the storm near Tampa, and stalling it for 24 hours. At this point it does not appear as if it will makea direct landfall strike, but it may be close enough to bring a serious storm with the effects I mentioned above. Thereafter, computer models track the storm north into the Tennessee Valley, then suppress it south of New England next weekend.

Shifting topics back to our incredible fall weather here in New England. Aside from two rather large rain events, this September has been an extension of this past summer, minus the horrible heat! So far, September is behaving much like September should. Temperatures are slowly cooling off, and we’ve had just about normal rainfall here in Boston. I do understand that some parts of Connecticut and Rhode Island have received three months worth of rain this September. The drought continues for us here in Boston, with improvement. Drought has also improved in southeastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands where many communities received up to 3″ of rain last Tuesday.

No doubt, the drought is improving. Cold fronts that were drying up and fizzling on their approach to eastern Massachusetts this summer, are now overachieving, bringing more rain than expected. Boston was well over 10″ below average for the year, where now we’re around 6″. Some locations have completely erased the deficit! Glad to see we received the best of both worlds this September, benefiting from welcome rains, and continuing our streak of sunny weather from this past summer. I don’t want to jinx it, but I can’t remember the last time we had meaningful rainfall on a weekend day? We’ll take it!

I will have a comprehensive look at October in my next post, but right now it’s looking like a fairly average month to me, with times of mild weather punctuated by chilly periods. With shifting patterns and moisture available from tropical systems, we do run the risk for another intense fall storm, much like we’ve experienced past several years! This is a common theme in La Nina years. These storms become most intense when the northern jet stream (cold + energy) phases with the sub-tropical jet stream (warm + moisture). This is how we receive our blizzards in winter, but also intense autumn nor’easters. Early season cold air is building up in Canada. It would not shock me to see our mountains receive an early season snowfall this year.

Now time for our second fall foliage report! Leaves are beginning to turn in some favored areas up north. It appears most of New England is running slightly behind with fall foliage season. However, favorable temperatures over the next 10 to 14 days are going to accelerate this process, with peak conditions being very close to the White Mountain region by Indigenous Day (Columbus weekend) around October 10th. Color should be moderate to bright in most areas. Keep in mind, peak colors do not last as long in higher elevations…generally 5 to 7 days and it’s over. Colder temperatures turn the leaves more quickly, resulting in a shorter foliage season. With that being said, peak foliage can last up to two weeks in lower elevations, where it’s warmer and less wind. It takes longer for leaves to turn along the coastal plain, but foliage tends to linger longer here, as the cool autumn temperatures are tempered by the Atlantic Ocean.

Down here in southern New England, we will begin to see leaves changing soon here as well! With drought conditions this past summer, I’m expecting leaves to begin turning a bit earlier than recent years, with a fairly vibrant peak moving through the last week of October/early November this year. As always, it’s always a delicate combination of factors that bring out the best color. Wind storms, unseasonably warm weather and leaf disease can ruin the color extravaganza. I will monitor, and have another update next week!

Here’s your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect pleasant fall weather to continue through much of this week into the weekend. Expect times of sun and clouds for the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will be on the mild side, with highs in the very low 70’s.

Consider an early evening walk at the park or in your neighborhood. Temperatures will fall slowly through the 60’s under dry conditions. Watch for fair skies and light winds overnight, with lows dropping to seasonable levels, mainly in the 40’s in rural areas and 50’s in the city.

Tuesday should feature another mild day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 70s’. A disturbance moving through may bring a slight chance of a shower, but should be mainly focused across the interior. Tuesday night will be fair and cool, with low temperatures similar to tonight.

From the period of Wednesday through Sunday, expect autumn weather at its best here in New England! A strong cold front will push through New England on Wednesday. There’s not much support with this cold front to produce much of any precipitation, but a brief shower can’t be ruled out. This cold front will act as a block, and should deflect the remnants of hurricane Ian out to sea this weekend. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler, with highs in the upper 60’s. Wednesday night will be fair and chilly, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

Thursday through Saturday will feature partly sunny skies and fall-like temperatures with highs mainly in the lower to mid 60’s. Overnight lows will see chilly temperatures, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Perfect for fall foliage to get underway! Happy October 1st on Saturday.

I would extend this to Sunday as well. Right now, it appears as if the remnants of Hurricane Ian will track south of New England. However, I can’t rule out a slightly further north track, bringing at least cloudy weather on Sunday, and possibly even some rain, especially for the south coast and the Cape. I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans at this time, but definitely keep an eye on future forecasts.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will take a more in depth look at our October forecast. I will also discuss some of my early thoughts for this upcoming winter, as well as my fall foliage report and weekly forecast. In the meantime, keep praying for the storms to miss!

~Wishing my nephew Nick a Happy Birthday!~ (September 25th)

-Wishing my niece Olivia a Happy Birthday!~  (October 2nd)

Be safe & thanks for reading!

Pete