Summer…Transitions to Autumn! 9/19/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was yet another gorgeous late summer weekend! Both days were beautiful, but Sunday certainly was the more summery day of the two! Temperatures soared into the mid to even upper 80’s across southern New England, with a surge in humidity as well. Meanwhile, Saturday started off with a touch of fall, with many communities falling into the 40’s for early morning low temperatures. With fall rapidly approaching, it’s the time of year when temperatures begin to oscillate from warm to cool & vice versa.

Speaking of fall, we are now just a few days away from the autumnal equinox, which officially arrives on Thursday, September 22nd at 9:04 PM. On this date, we experience equal time between day and night. From this point forward, sunlight will continue to lessen until we reach the winter solstice. At that point, the days will begin to lengthen once again!

But what exactly causes the change of seasons? To answer this question, we must first understand the astrological process. First, earth is constantly on the move! It takes 24 hours for the earth to make one complete revolution on its axis. If the earth wasn’t spinning, we would have constant daylight for half a year, and the other half would be in darkness! That just explains why we have daytime and nighttime. While earth is spinning on its own axis, we’re also orbiting around the sun. It takes one full year for the earth to make one revolution around the sun!

So that’s what makes the seasons, right? Actually, no! The real key in all of this is as the earth is spinning on its axis, it’s also tilted at 23.5 degrees! While each process plays a significant role, that is the ultimate reason why the seasons change! It all works hand in hand! If the earth didn’t spin on its axis or orbit around the sun, it would be a disastrous outcome, and the end of the world as we know it.

As we approach the winter solstice here in the Northern Hemisphere, we’re tilted away from the sun. As we receive less solar radiation, temperatures begin to cool at the North pole first. As nights become longer, cool air becomes more dominant in lower latitudes as we head into October and especially November. Eventually, the cold air will build up across Canada, then unleash with our first cold snap sometime later in November or especially early December, marking the start of winter. These time frames may vary from year to year depending upon current weather patterns.

Some say autumn is New England’s best season! I tend to agree! There are several reasons why autumn is my second favorite season!  First, gone are the sweltering temperatures of summer. Yes, there may be a few unusually warm days here and there, but for the most part, 60’s and 70’s replace 80’s and 90’s. As we move deeper into fall, temperatures cool further to 40’s and 50’s heading into November. More often than not, it’s not unusual for winter to make its first appearance around Thanksgiving time here in New England!

Before that happens, there’s so many other things to do in fall such as going apple picking at a local farm, fall foliage trips or camping in the cool crisp mountain air! It’s also a great time of the year to plan a hiking trip at a local forest or up in the mountains. As far as holidays, there’s Indigenous Peoples Day formerly known as Columbus Day, Halloween, and my favorite Thanksgiving Day!

As mentioned above, autumn weather in New England is typically the best of the entire year! We’ve already experienced some beautiful days here in September! However, you may of noticed a few crisp mornings as you head off to work or school lately. While it’s been a mostly mild September, it has not been as warm as some recent years. There is the potential for our first real taste of autumn weather later this week. This is absolutely normal, as it would be officially autumn after all!

One thing I start keeping an eye out for this time of year is the regions first frost. Average dates of first frost varies greatly throughout our region. Typically, mountain and inland valley locations receive frost first before the coastal plain. While there can be frost during September in southern New England, the real show begins in October. Northern New England runs about one month earlier than southern New England, and in fact some areas have already experienced their first frost. Some locations in northern Maine were  in the 20’s last night! Right on schedule, I would not be surprised if there were widespread frost in northern New England coming up this weekend.

There could even be scattered frost here in southern New England, that’s how chilly the air mass is going to be! It will warm up again over the weekend, but it’s a sign the seasons are indeed beginning to change! As we head into October, frost becomes a more common event. Nights are longer, and nights turn chilly with crisp autumn air. As mentioned earlier, inland locations receive frost first, with areas outside of I495 typically seeing their first frost between October 1st and 10th. Areas outside of Rt 128 around Boston is between October 10th and 20th, sometimes sooner depending upon the year. Colder nights then slowly move towards the coastal plain as we move deeper into October, with many locations inside Rt 128 seeing their first frost between October 20th and 30th. My first frost where I live in West Roxbury generally occurs around October 23rd, on average. Heavily urbanized areas and locations right along the ocean such as Logan Airport typically don’t receive their first frost or freeze until the first week of November. Again, these dates can vary quite a bit from year to year.

How’s this years version of autumn looking? Well, looking over the latest long range computer data, I can tell you it’s looking very interesting! Hard to believe after such a long hot dry summer, winter is already beginning to assemble its forces across the arctic regions. We are firmly in the grips of a third year La Nina (cold water in the southern Pacific Ocean). This typically means warm and dry weather in much of the northeast. However, we have had some notable autumn weather events the past two years. Last year was a fierce nor’easter, which knocked power out to thousands of people in the South Shore. There was also severe tree damage with winds of 90 MPH.

Back in October of 2020 Boston experienced it’s largest October snowstorm on record with between 4 and 6″ of snow falling in the city at the end of October, leading to an unprecedented white Halloween! A week later, Boston observed 7 straight days of temperatures in the 70’s during November!

While we’re in a warm cycle overall,  I see a lot of ups and downs this fall, with the potential for yet another early season major storm. With cold air nearby, this storm could feature early season snowfall in parts of our region, especially mountain locations! After a long dry summer, I believe storms will begin arriving in earnest sometime later in October, and and continuing into November this year. After some cold spells and warm spells, it looks like autumn will average close to normal temperatures.

It doesn’t look like much of a forecast, but transition seasons such as fall & spring are notoriously hard to predict. With this being a third year La Nina, I believe anything and everything is on the table! Weather patterns are going to become extreme this winter with both warm & cold across the country. If the La Nina collapses early, the second half of winter could feature a period of severe winter weather, but I’m getting ahead of myself!

As if that wasn’t enough, the tropics have suddenly come to life! Hurricane Fiona developed suddenly near Puerto Rico this weekend. The storm was forecast to track north of the island, sparing the region a direct hit. A last second shift took the storm on a devastating southerly track bringing up to 100 mph winds and biblical flooding to the island. If you recall, Puerto Rico was destroyed by Maria just five years ago, and is still struggling to recover. Fiona is now hitting the Dominican Republic with heavy rain and 90 mph winds. It’s then forecast to track north and northeast. Folks who live or have family in Bermuda need to keep a close eye on this storm. Current computer model projections have this storm making a direct hit on the island later this week. There may be more hurricanes tracking through the Caribbean Sea heading towards the Gulf of Mexico southeast states in the coming weeks!

Now for our first fall foliage report! So far, fall foliage season has gotten off to a slow start! This is somewhat of a surprise, considering how dry the summer was. It’s possible the heavy rain we received at the beginning of September came in a nick of time to prevent massive leaf drop? It’s always a combination of factors that brings out our fall foliage season. Precipitation and temperature patterns play a very important role in how vibrant or muted any particular season will be. When the precipitation falls is also key in determining when the leaves will change and how bright they will be. Last summer was much too warm & wet, leading to a dull foliage season.

Temperatures also play a crucial role. By this time of the year, we normally begin to see chilly nights, with lows in the 30’s up north and 40’s here in southern New England. So far, we’ve only had a handful of these nights. Cooler nights ahead will most definitely activate the leaves to begin changing! Northern New England stands to have the best viewing for this falls fall foliage extravaganza. Many locations received enough rainfall this summer, but not too much to dull the colors. I would anticipate Columbus Day weekend a good time to go up north to view the colors. Any location is good, but the White Mountain region into western Maine is always my favorite! For us here in southern New England, we only need a few chilly nights to get the leaves changing. This will happen towards the end of September, with peak fall colors arriving the last 10 days of October this year. With the drought this past summer, it’s possible we see a short but vibrant fall foliage season, only lasting a few days.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer & fall activity forecast! I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect cloudy skies the rest of your Monday. Temperatures will be warmest inland, and coolest along the coast. There’s also the threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms arriving from west to east later this afternoon. These showers may continue into tonight, under mainly mild temperatures.

Tuesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. There continues to be a chance of some scattered showers, but a washout is not anticipated. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70’s, expect 60’s across northeast Massachusetts southern New Hampshire. Expect mainly dry conditions overnight Tuesday, with lows mainly in the 50’s and lower 60’s.

Watch for a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday with highs mainly in the 70’s. A fairly strong cold front will be approaching the region later Wednesday and may bring with it more scattered showers and even possibly a few thunderstorms.

After this front clears the coast, expect clearing skies on Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 70’s. Not bad for the first day of fall! Clear and cooler temperatures will arrive Thursday night with lows in the 40’s and low 50’s.

Friday will be a fall-like day with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. It’s amazing how impeccable Mother Nature’s timing is sometimes! Expect chilly temperatures Friday night, with areas of frost likely across northern New England and scattered areas across southern New England. Low temperatures will be in the 30’s and low 40’s, warmest in urban areas and along the coastal plain.

Right now, the weekend looks to be generally fair with a slight warming trend. There could be some late showers on Sunday into Monday followed by another cool fall-like air mass. Fairly typical weather coming up for this time of the year especially when you average the warm and cool days out. Should be good weather to get the leaves changing!

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next post, I will be talking about hurricanes, and what role they may play in our upcoming fall patterns. I will also be talking about our fall timetable, and have my second fall foliage report! In the meantime, enjoy the last few days of summer…as we transition into fall!

Thanks for reading & be safe, everyone!

Pete

Wavy Weather Front; Waves Goodbye to Summer! 9/5/22

Hello! Happy Labor Day, to all! I hope everyone is enjoying their Labor Day holiday weekend! For those who have to work today, thank you for your service! It doesn’t make a difference for me, as Monday’s are my day off anyway! Overall, the beautiful weather from the summer held out for two thirds of the holiday weekend. Both Saturday & Sunday were summer gems with sunny skies and warm temperatures. It wasn’t until later Sunday afternoon when high clouds blotted out the sunset, that gave us any indication of change coming. Though it remained dry in Boston this morning, areas north & west of Boston have already received 2 to 4″ of torrential rain! Meanwhile, there were reports of sunny skies still hanging on over portions of the Cape!

Who loves when something great ends??? Just what I thought…nobody!! Unfortunately, as the saying goes, “All good things must come to an end.” You know where I’m going with this, and it’s not going to make a lot of people happy. Yes, the amazing summer of 2022 unofficially ends today. Notice how I mentioned “unofficial.” This is because summer officially doesn’t end until September 22nd, when the autumnal equinox arrives! That’s all fine & good, but here in New England, we think of summer beginning on Memorial Day, and ending on Labor Day.

This doesn’t mean summery weather is over! In fact, past several September’s has seen a continuation of summer like temperatures well into the month! Many would argue September brings our best weather of the year, with pleasantly warm days, and comfortably cool nights. In a warming climate, this is the exception, not the rule around here in recent years. About 30 years ago, it was the opposite. September would feature a fairly abrupt end to summer, with cooler high temperatures beginning shortly after Labor Day, which was quickly followed by chilly nighttime temperatures. Sadly, we now typically have to wait until mid October or in some years even November before we feel the first chill of autumn.

Channel 4 meteorologist Eric Fisher tweeted out this morning that he would typically feel a bit down this time of year that summer is over. This year was different. His word to describe the ending to summer this year: content! He explained how he was grateful for the endless sunny weekends, gorgeous vacation weeks, plenty of hot beach weather with little to no ran. Yes, it was a horrible drought, but for people had outdoor projects going on, vacationers and beach goers, it was a once in fifty year summer!

Personally, I don’t recall anything like it! Yes, summer 2016 and 2020 were similar, but this summer was the all-time greatest, weather-wise! After last summer’s daily downpours, this summer was the exact opposite of last year! It was a nice payback from Mother Nature. This was a good example of the year to year variability our climate possesses.

How hot & dry was it? Statistically, it was the 2nd hottest summer on record. However, these numbers are skewed as they most always are. As you recall, June was an extremely pleasant month, with zero 90 degree days, comfortable levels of humidity and very little rainfall. Had June been even half as hot as July and August, undoubtedly this would of ranked as the hottest summer on record. It goes to show us just how intense the heat was around here in July and August. After no 90 degree days in June, a remarkable turnaround commenced in July. July registered 10 days, and August saw 11! August tied for the most ninety degree days on record. For the first time on record, Boston has observed back to back summers with 20+ ninety degree days. Indeed the climate continues to warm, without pause.

What about precipitation? You would be surprised to know we ended up as the 5th driest on record. You may ask, how can this be? When did this rainfall occur? Well, when you get into the top 5 driest summers, the difference between one and 10 is only tenth’s of an inch. We were flirting with number one for the majority of the summer. August saw an increase in rainfall across much of the region. Late August brought some additional overnight showers when Boston picked up nearly a half an inch of rain. This dropped us out of the top three, and in fact landed us in the 5th driest summer on record. Nevertheless, it’s been an extremely dry summer regardless of what the statistics say.

Now onto this wavy weather front! Yes, this pattern has been building for weeks! A battle-zone between fall-like air to our north, and steam summer-like air to our south. A wavy nearly stationary front has developed, and extends from the Canadian Maritimes through Massachusetts, down through New York City and the Mid Atlantic states. You could even make an argument the front goes all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico! To the north, high pressure is building down from eastern Canada with cool dry air. To the south, warm humid air is pushing north, overriding the cool air. Should this pattern were to repeat itself this upcoming winter, a very large snow & ice storm would be on the table.

With it being September, we’re just talking rain, and in some cases, a lot of it! As the front slowly presses south of New England tomorrow, winds will turn northeast and just like that the seasons will change right before our eyes from summer to autumn! In addition, waves of low pressure will ride up along the front bringing periods of heavy rainfall to much of eastern Massachusetts, focused in the Boston area points southwest towards Connecticut. The heaviest of rainfall looks to come in early this evening and continue into the first half of your Tuesday. With the wind whipping in off of the ocean, temperatures may be hard pressed to get out of the 50’s tomorrow! You will know summer is over!

But is it for real? As I mentioned above, summer does not officially end until September 22nd. Therefore, we still have the opportunity for warm temperatures and sunny skies to continue for at least a couple more weeks! After tomorrow’s cool weather, temperatures will rebound quite nicely, with highs back up into the 80’s through this coming weekend and beyond! So while this may be the unofficial end of summer, Mother Nature has plans to keep it going through much of this month!

Speaking of September, what are my thoughts for our weather this month? After tomorrow’s rain, it appears as if the same pattern we experienced this summer, is going to return for the foreseeable future. This means sunny, warm days with very little rainfall expected for at least the next two weeks. Though admittedly, I was quite surprised when this wavy weather front showed up unexpectedly on the weather models last week. We never know for sure, but at this moment I’m expecting September to be a another warmer than normal month around here. This means we will still be seeing many high temperatures in the 80’s.. We should have a couple more fronts crossing the region to help bring precipitation up to near normal levels by months end. However, many of us will see their most rainfall of the month over the course of the next 24 hours or so.

How does our fall foliage season look this year? Early indications are pointing to a colorful season up in northern New England. This region has seen enough rainfall this summer to keep trees fairly healthy. There is some concern about the gypsy moth caterpillar eating the foliage, but I believe this is in isolated areas only. I would like to see a turn to chillier night-time temperatures. There were some chilly temperatures recently, where some valley locations already dropped into the 30’s! If we receive more weather like this, it will cue the trees to shut down the supply of nutrients, and start changing the leaves. Decreasing sunlight obviously also plays a roll, so we’ll see how these two factors work in the coming days & weeks. There have been reports of some leaves already beginning to change across the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and the crown of Maine. If things run on schedule, these areas typically see peak fall colors by the very end of September! So begin planning your trip!

From fall foliage to beach report! This is how it is in the beautiful month of September! After tomorrow’s rain, you can expect our beautiful summer weather to resume around here for the balance of the week straight on through the upcoming weekend! Temperatures will be in the lower 80’s inland, with perhaps some local sea-breezes keeping it slightly cooler at the coast. Boaters should remain in port tomorrow, as northeast winds will make the seas quite rough especially along east coastal waters.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

After a lull in the rainfall early this afternoon, expect the rain to slowly overspread the entire region from north to south by early evening. Temperatures will be cooling through the 60’s.

Expect a steady soaking rain overnight, with pockets of heavy rainfall and localized urban street flooding. Winds will turn northeast, and temperatures will continue to fall into the upper 60’s.  Heaviest rainfall amounts appear to be from Boston points southwest towards northern Rhode Island and Connecticut. In this zone, I’m expecting between 2 and 4″ of rain, with isolated pockets in central Connecticut may receive between 6 to 8″ of rain! Is this enough to break the drought? In some areas, yes, it will make a huge dent into the drought, if not relieve it altogether. This, especially in conjunction with the heavy rain we received the last 10 days of August.

However, make no mistake, there will be plenty of areas especially around Boston points northeast towards Cape Ann where we would need much more rain to eradicate the drought. In many areas. we would need 8 to 10″ of rainfall. The good news is this storm is similar to a winter type storm, where precipitation falls gradually over a long duration. This will allow the rain to slowly penetrate into the dry ground, instead of run off into the drain system.

Expect lingering rain and showers to persist tomorrow along with a chilly wind off of the ocean. Temperatures may be hard pressed to get out of the 50’s…so you will need your umbrella and warm jacket heading off to work or school! Rain should diminish during the afternoon, leading to a dryer evening commute.

As the front continues to push further south, Wednesday should feature increasing sunshine along with warmer temperatures. Expect highs in the upper 70’s and low 80’s.

I’m expecting similar weather conditions to continue on Thursday straight on into the upcoming weekend! I’m very pleased to report the weather will be cooperating for my church’s annual Greek Festival! Location is at 162 Goddard Ave in Brookline. Bring your appetite for delicious Greek food and pastries!

Well, that’s about it for now! My next blog will be posted on September 19th, unless severe weather threatens the region. There will be Hurricane Earl swirling off of our coast next week. The main impacts from this will be large groundswell for boaters and rip currents for swimmers. Otherwise, no imminent severe weather events are anticipated. In my next post, I will talk about the fall timetable, a fall forecast and our first official fall foliage report. In the meantime, wave goodbye to summer, only to welcome it back later this week!

~Happy Birthday to my niece Elana!~ (September 8th)

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Rain…For a Change! 8/22/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was yet another sunny hot weekend around our region. Both Friday and Saturday managed to reach 90 degrees in Boston. Sunday fell just short of attaining our third heat wave of the summer, with Logan Airport registering 89 degrees. Whether you were at the beach, in the mountains or spending time in the garden at home, it was another great weekend to be spending time outdoors!

I spent some time with friends & family this past weekend, and many commented on how spectacular this summer has been for beach, boating and many other outdoor activities. Indeed, it’s been an extremely sunny summer, with nearly no rain to speak of, and day after day of beautiful beach weather. It’s also been a hot summer, with Boston observing nineteen 90 degree days so far this summer.

With autumn now just one month away from today, you wonder how much summer we have left in the tank? If you recall, my original summer forecast posted back on May 23rd, called for between 15 and 19 ninety degree days in Boston this summer. As mentioned above, we now stand at 19 for the season. At the summer solstice, I foolishly revised the forecast, downgrading the number of 90 degree days to 10 to 14.

Moving forward, the big question for the remainder of the summer is if Boston can register one more 90 degree day to reach 20 for the season. If we do, it would be the first time in recorded history Boston has observed back to back years with 20+ ninety degree days.

The casual observer may say not a problem at all, we still have a whole month to go! I 100% agree, it looks like a lock on paper. However, the devil is in the details! While there’s a good chance we receive another 90 degree day, I would say there’s an equal chance it stops at 19, and we don’t. How could this happen? NOAA’s climate prediction center has New England region well above normal temperatures for the rest of August, and actually for the entire three month autumnal period of September, October and November!

Well, there are a few things that may prevent us from receiving the 20th ninety degree day. First, the days are beginning to shorten. Second, the sun angle is not as high as it was earlier this month and in July. Third, more rainfall heading into September could place a damper on the hot dry summer we’ve been experiencing. All of these factors combined may lead to reduced chance of additional 90 degree days, despite what NOAA claims. Remember, it’s all subject to interpretation, above normal high temperatures this time of year can mean a lot of 80’s, not 90’s.

With all that being said, receiving 90 degree days this time of year, even right up until the autumnal equinox is not unheard of at all! There have been many days of “bonus” hot weather especially in recent years right into September! I remember a three day heat wave not too long ago from September 7th through the 9th back in 2015. I believe Boston received 5 days of 90 degree temperatures in that September alone!

In case you’re wondering, the the average number of 90 degree days in Boston in the month of September is one. We actually can go many years at a time with no 90 degree days in September. For one reason or another, we’ve been experiencing very warm temperatures in recent years in Boston during September, and for much of October for that matter.

What do I think? Despite the window closing on the summer heat, I believe we do hit 90 one ore two more times before we can finally turn the corner to autumn. It was just too hot and dry of a summer to think it ends from now. There’s still plenty of hot air available for another run at 90 one or two more times in my opinion.  We still have the rest of August, and the first 15 days of September. That’s 24 days! I like my chances!

Of more pressing concern is the status and future forecast of the extreme drought in the Boston area. We have only received a third of rainfall we typically see in a summer season. After a dry spring, drought conditions began appearing across eastern Massachusetts in late spring, and have only worsened throughout the summer. Very hot temperatures increased evaporation leading to dried up lawns and gardens. This has led to a greater than 10″ deficit of rainfall in Boston this summer!

My sister Pam showed me a video of all the hummingbirds feeding at her sugar water feeders up in the seacoast region of New Hampshire. Wow! It was a feeding frenzy, with dozens of the majestic birds swarming the feeders! I can only attribute this increased activity to the lack of water source the birds are finding out in nature.

A wavy warm front sitting off our coast is finally leading to beneficial rainfall across our region today! Some communities on the south shore of Boston have already received 2″ of much needed rainfall. This area of rain was marking time and holding steady all morning. At one point, it appeared as if the rain was going to bypass Boston and slide southeast of the city. However, the area of rain has been increasing for a change, and has since overtaken the city with a steady rain. Nothing extreme,  as we would rather have a slow falling rain so it can soak into the ground.

It appears as if this rain is going to continue on and off until the warm front actually lifts north of our area, which may not be until later this evening. This is just what the doctor ordered! A slow falling one inch of rainfall, if not a bit more in some communities, especially south of Boston where up to 2″ has already fallen as I mentioned above. As a bonus, the cold front associated with this low pressure system still needs to swing through the region tomorrow afternoon. This in itself could contain some heavy showers and thunderstorms. This system is not enough to eliminate the drought, but certainly much needed to moisten the ground and at least water gardens.

With Labor Day just two weeks away from today, I thought it would be a good time for a brief fall outlook. With a third year La Nina in control, I see another unusual autumn shaping up for us here in New England. Overall, September and October look warmer than normal at this point. Any semblance of fall may have to wait until November, when a sudden pattern shift may lead to  chilly temperatures. After the hot dry summer, we may have to wait until sometime in October for our precipitation patterns to return to normal.

For those who love fall foliage trips, do not write off this year yet due to the drought! Every year is different, but in general, drought summers lead to a brief burst of vivid color, followed by early leaf drop. If we can muster up some chilly September nights, foliage may come on a bit earlier than previous years. If temperature remain too warm, the burst of color I mentioned would not happen until late October early November. At any rate, northern New England has actually received decent amount of rainfall this summer. If temperatures cool enough during September, 30’s at night with light frost is preferable, foliage season could be better than average. All of this is subject to change and interpretation. I will surely keep everyone updated as we move closer to the season!

I must say, last year was perhaps the worst fall foliage seasons I have ever observed in Boston. Record summer rainfall, followed by very warm September and October led to green leaves on the trees all the way until Halloween! A sudden freeze in early November turned all the leaves brown, before falling by mid-November. Awful! In some ways this season looks similar, but I’m thinking the drought may perhaps lead to a more colorful fall around here this year!

It all ties into the warming climate we have seen in New England over the past 30 years. Whether it’s natural or man made, our falls are nothing like they used to be in the past. With ocean temperatures at absurd warm levels, autumn has had a difficult time reaching the coast. Fall foliage is a good 2 to 3 weeks later than what it used to be, and chilly weather does not show up until mid November if not later.

Now for your weekly beach and boating report. After two unsettled days toady and tomorrow, summer weather will return for Wednesday and Thursday, with warm temperatures and moderate levels of humidity. Boaters should remain in port today and most of tomorrow. There may be a chance for some boating the first half of the day before thunderstorms move into the area. Better weather will return for boating Wednesday and Thursday. Beware of choppy seas this weekend, especially on Saturday with northeast winds. A cold front will likely bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to our region sometime on Friday, but I wouldn’t cancel any beach plans. Onshore winds may make it somewhat cooler at the coast on Saturday, with highs in the 70’s. Sunday may be warmer, but there may also be more clouds around. This is subject to change.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I would give this week a 7 out of 10. Slightly less than what we’re used to this summer, but welcome news with rainfall!

Expect periods of rain for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Within this rain, there’s the potential for some embedded heavy downpours. It will remain on the cool side, but with increasing humidity levels as the warm front lifts north of our region. Temperatures will remain near 70.

Tonight will feature damp weather, with leftover showers, areas of fog and mist. Temperatures should remain in the 60’s overnight.

After early morning low clouds, fog and perhaps some drizzle, skies will tend to brighten later in the morning. A cold front will be approaching, tracking across New England during the day, reaching the Boston area by early afternoon with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may be severe across our region, so an eye to the sky and updates from local media outlets would be recommended! Temperatures may spike into the low to mid 80’s, with muggy feel to the air.

Any showers should be off the coast in time for any outdoor evening activities tomorrow, with generally fair skies and mild temperatures overnight.

Wednesday and Thursday look to feature mainly sunny skies and very warm temperatures. I will stop short from calling it hot, but mid to upper 80’s seem like a good bet. Friday looks quite warm too, with an outside shot it touches 90 in a few communities. There’s also a chance of a few afternoon summer thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through the region.

High pressure will introduce onshore winds along the coast on Saturday, with highs mainly in the 70’s. Sunday may turn warmer, along with a few more clouds. Computer models diverge for Sunday, one mentioning a chance of a few showers, while the other remains dry.

Regardless, next week looks warmer overall. Quite similar weather to what we’ve been experiencing the entire summer.

Well, that’s about it for now! Unless severe weather threatens our region, my next post will be two weeks from today, September 5th. In that post, I’m planning on talking about whether there are any tropical storms or hurricanes to worry about. I will also have a preview of September, and my August review. I will also discuss our fall timetable, as September 1st is the first day of meteorological fall. In the meantime, summer’s not over yet, but time is ticking! Enjoy!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Heat Wave Breaks…How About Some Rain? 8/8/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! By all accounts, it was a brutally hot weekend by New England standards. Temperatures soared into the upper 90’s both days. If that wasn’t enough, dew point temperatures rose into the lower to mid 70’s leading to a heat index of near 105 degrees in Boston! A dying thunderstorm brought temporary relief to some communities early Sunday evening. Overall, it was a good weekend to be near the ocean, mountains, lake, pool or anyplace indoors that had air conditioning!

I’m running out of superlatives to describe these relentless heat waves. I have lost count of all the records we’re smashing. The latest record, is the number of days Boston has failed to drop below 80 degrees for a high temperature. I believe it’s been 25 days in a row in Boston the high temperature has been 80 degrees or above. This breaks the record of 24 days set back in 1953. Half of these days have been in the 90’s! In fact, Boston had zero ninety degree days on June 30th. Since then, we have accumulated 16 days, with 17 coming tomorrow. Our seasonal average is 14.

In many ways, this summer reminds me of the record breaking 2014-15 winter. Many people wrote off that winter as being a dud, as Boston only had 3.7″ of snow up to January 23rd. What happened starting on January 24th can only be described as apocalyptic! A biblical snow blitz paralyzed the city with 94″ of snow falling in a three week stretch. Of which very little melted. The city ended up breaking the all-time seasonal snowfall record with 110.6″ falling.

Fast forward 7 years later to summer 2022. No 90 degree days in Boston through June 30th, with very little if any humid days. Relentless cool fronts from Canada continued to replenish the super comfortable air, with no 90 degree days to speak of. Could this summer end up cooler than normal?

Yet, there were red flags! There was an early season blast of heat in the May 20th to 22nd period. Temperatures soared into the mid to upper 90’s across 95% of the region…except right along the immediate waters edge, where a very weak feeble sea-breeze prevented coastal locations from reaching or exceeding 90. Logan Airport for example remained at 89 degrees, whereas inland parts of the city such as West Roxbury easily made it into the mid 90’s. I remember this because my niece Olivia’s college graduation was on May 22nd, which featured exceptionally hot late spring temperatures.

This is a good lesson to remember. I should listen to my own proverbs! Early season heat around Memorial Day is many times a harbinger for things to come the upcoming summer. Yet, I took the bait Mother Nature offered, and believed the cool weather was going to persist deep into the summer. It was the ultimate head fake! Similar to winter 2014-15, summer arrived with a flare on July 1st, and has been running the tables since!

As mentioned above, today marks day 16 of ninety degrees days, with number 17 coming tomorrow. Even my initial summer forecast of between 15 and 19 ninety degree days looks like it will under-perform. Meanwhile, my revised forecast of between 10 and 14 days made at the summer solstice can be chalked up as poor decision. I can only say I do my very best with these seasonal outlooks. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose!

We have now passed an “average” summer, whatever that means anymore. With it being only August 8th, there’s at least a 75% chance of Boston reaching 90 degrees a few more times this summer. If we do, it would be the first time in recorded history Boston has experienced back to back summers with 20+ ninety degree days being observed. Last summer, Logan Airport reached 90 degrees a whopping 24 times! It may not of seemed that hot with all the torrential rains we received.

Looking over some of the long range computer models, the rest of the summer into early fall look very warm in Boston. I would be shocked if we didn’t reach 20 ninety degree days this summer. In fact, I would say there’s a 50% chance of tying last years number or 24. The greatest number of ninety degree days in any season occurred in 1983, when Boston observed 30 ninety degree days. We may fall short of this mark, but if September lives up to the potential warm weather expected, there’s an outside shot of approaching that record.

Why not? The climate is getting warmer around here, and it appears it’s happening at an alarmingly fast rate! Ocean temperatures keep getting warmer and warmer. After a slow start, water temperatures around New England range from near 80 on the south side of the Cape, to near 70 around Boston, and lower 60’s in New Hampshire and Maine. These are a good 5 to 10 degrees above where they normally would be at this time of year.

Remember, ocean temperatures are based off a latent heating and cooling effect. This means the ocean takes longer than expected to heat up in the summer, and longer to cool off in the winter. One would expect our warmest temperatures to be occurring right now in mid-summer. However, temperatures may not reach their absolute peak until around mid September. Vice-versa in the winter, our coldest ocean temperatures are not realized until early to mid-March around here. Therefore, summer extends deeper into autumn in most years, and winter can linger deeper into spring than other parts of the country.

Many friends and family are asking me when this hot weather is going to break!! Well, I have some good news! It looks like tomorrow will be our last day, with this particular heat wave! As is the case, the humidity levels are going to be off the charts tomorrow, before the cool front passes through. Kind of like Mother Nature giving us one final kick in the behind for good measure! Yes, relief is on the way, but the heat wave is not going to leave without a fight!  Cold fronts are sluggish and weak this time of year. Especially when faced with a massive heat ridge across a good portion of the United States. It appears as if the front will indeed arrive into New England tomorrow. At first, it will be moving at a good clip through northern and western regions. However, indications are showing this front slowing down as it approaches the coastal plain.

This means one of two things. First, a wind-shift to the northeast will result in cooler temperatures after the front passes. After tomorrow, we can say good-bye to temperatures in the 90’s for a while. Second, and so importantly, there’s the potential for a line of heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms to arrive in the Boston area later tomorrow afternoon and continue well into the evening. Some of these downpours will be slow moving, and may produce flash flooding in some communities.

With all of the humidity in the air that has to be wrung out, the potential is definitely there for some much needed beneficial rainfall! I know, meteorologists have been forecasting showers and thunderstorms all summer, only to have them fizzle on their approach to Boston. We are in a severe drought in Boston, with rainfall deficits approaching 9″ for the year. Longtime Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal has a saying, “when in doubt, forecast drought!” This is our best chance of meaningful rainfall in about 3 months here in Boston. If it doesn’t rain this week, we were doomed from the start!

Thereafter, there are further indications that the cold front will become stationary just off our coast. If this is true, there may be an additional wave of low pressure that develops on this front and brings another round of beneficial rains across southeastern Massachusetts including the Boston area later Wednesday into early Thursday. Any slight shift in this boundary could result in boom or bust amounts of rainfall for our area. Mark Rosenthal certainly knows what he’s talking about when it comes to breaking a drought. During drought, persistent high pressure or rising air, can dry out a region, leading to a dome of dry air. This prevents clouds from developing and associated rainfall. Another saying is drought begets drought.

Another way to break out a drought is to have a tropical storm move through the area. So far, this hurricane season has been non-existent. However, statistics show hurricane season begins to ramp up by mid-August peaking around mid-September, then slowly fading away thereafter. To me, much like this summer, it’s only a matter of when not if the hurricane season will get going. The parameters are there for a very active season. Having no storms early on may actually be a omen in disguise. Not having the waters churned up by tropical cyclones have actually gave the oceans time to heat up to unprecedented levels! Ocean temperatures are running close to 90 degrees in the Gulf of Mexico, and mid 80’s off the southeast coast of the United States. This is more than warm enough to aid in rapid development of hurricanes and tropical storms should they begin to develop. In other words, keep an eye on forecasts for hurricanes this summer…you’ll be hearing about them on your local news station near you soon!

Here’s your weekly beach and boating forecast. This will be the first week in the entire summer that I can’t give a full stamp of approval. Nevertheless, there will be some pleasant weather to be had! Scorching temperatures & humidity today and tomorrow will mean uncomfortable conditions at the beach. Late afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow will be followed by northeast winds and cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. There is a good chance of a period of rain later Wednesday into Thursday morning. After an iffy day on Friday, this weekend looks to feature spectacular weather, with low humidity, blue skies, and pleasant temperatures! Similar to the weather we experienced in June.

Boaters beware of shifting winds after the passage of the cold front. Northeast winds may bring some rough seas from Boston Harbor waters north and east. Another low pressure will bring a chance of rain later Wednesday into Thursday morning. Better weather for boaters will return later Thursday into Friday. High pressure building into New England later this week into the upcoming weekend should bring with it generally calm seas and great boating weather.

Now time for our weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. A little bit of everything on the menu! Expect heat wave conditions to continue this afternoon well into Tuesday before subsiding. Temperatures will be in the mid 90’s across the area, with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70’s. This will bring a heat index ranging from 97 to 102 degrees across the area. Tonight will feature oppressive sleeping conditions, with lows barely falling below 80 degrees, with stifling levels of humidity.

As mentioned above, a slow moving cold front will be tracking across New England tomorrow. As the cold front interacts with the hot humid air, a line of showers and thunderstorms will be approaching Boston during mid to late afternoon. If we’re lucky, many will see tropical-like downpours, along with some embedded thunder. I do not see this as being a severe threat, due to the configuration of the cold front.

Showers and areas of heavy rain may continue into the first part of tomorrow night, then slowly abate thereafter. With winds shifting to the northeast, temperatures will begin to cool off a bit. Don’t get too excited just yet, the cool-down is going to be slow, and the humidity is going to stick around for a couple more days. However, with that being said, it looks like the 90’s will not be making any encore appearances for the balance of the week right into the upcoming weekend. Rather, we can expect a slow cool-down with temperatures falling back into the low 80’s.

With the front stalled off the coast, another wave of low pressure may develop on the front and bring a period of rain to southeastern Massachusetts. Latest indications have been shifting this rain a bit south, so it remains to be seen just how much rain makes it up into the Boston area. I believe it will rain, just not that much, but enough to water the gardens and lawns. At this point, we will take what we can get!

After this wave of low pressure passes the region early Friday, a fresh wind from the north and northeast will usher in a much drier air mass with lowering dew points! Expect some early clouds on Friday, then a tendency for decreasing clouds and drier weather during the day, with highs near 80.

Right now, the upcoming weekend looks quite delightful across much of the region. In fact, some may think it’s a bit too cool on Saturday night! Open up the windows in the house and let the cool dry air flow through the home! Look for mainly sunny weather for both Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures mainly in the 70’s, and lows in the 50’s and lower 60’s. A taste of September I would say?

At this early juncture, next week looks fair and seasonable, with highs in the low to mid 80’s. I am watching a potential rain storm for later in the week, but that’s just speculation at this point and things can certainly change.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next blog will be posted on Monday, August 22nd. If conditions change, I will keep everyone updated. I plan on discussing the prospects of another late August heat wave. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast, as well as a sneak peek into our upcoming fall weather. In the meantime, keep the air conditioner on high, and the umbrella on stand-by. That’s something I haven’t had to say much this summer! Enjoy!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Brief Relief! 7/25/22

Hello, all! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Saturday featured sunny and hot weather, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90’s across the region. Sunday was even hotter, with many communities in and around Boston reaching 100 degrees! Even Logan Airport recorded 100 degrees yesterday! So far, Boston has received 6 straight days of 90 degree + temperatures. The longest heat wave ever recorded in Boston is 9 days set back in July of 1912. If we can sneak up to 90 degrees today, it would bring us up into lofty territory tying other years that reached 7 day heat waves.

Seven day heat waves are quite rare, but so isn’t reaching 100 degrees in Boston. In 150 years of record keeping, Boston has reached 100 degrees only 27 times! That averages to about one in every six years. Oddly enough, Boston reached 100 degrees just last summer on June 30th!

I was reading Dr. Joe D’Aleo’s post this morning from WeatherBell Analytics and he was talking about historic heat waves in other parts of the country. To put things in perspective, Dallas Texas received 71 days of 100 degree plus temperatures back in 2011! We may say how do they deal with that heat, while they may say how do they deal with all that snow in the winter! It’s all relative on where you grew up, and your tolerance to your particular climate.

Nevertheless, the heat wave was quite intense for us here in New England. On many occasions, 90 degree heat is not sustainable for long a duration. Eventually, sea breezes from the ocean, or cool air from eastern Canada will suppress the hot air. To make things feel even hotter, this heat wave arrived at our climatological hottest times of the year. Right now, summer is in full control, and will likely be this way for the foreseeable future.

With last weeks heat wave, we have catapulted up to 8 ninety degree days so far this July. If we receive any sunshine this afternoon, we could tack on one more to make it 9. Regardless, I’m very pleased with my July forecast calling for between 8 and 11 ninety degree days. Normal for July is six. After a brief break, there’s a chance we may add one more ninety degree day Thursday of this week.

What I’m concerned about is my overall summer forecast. If you recall, my original forecast this summer posted back on May 23rd called for between 15 and 19 ninety degree days. The unexpected cool first half of summer led me to believe we may not be in for quite as hot of a summer as I anticipated. It may or may not of been an error to downgrade the summer to 10 to 14 ninety degree days with the target number of 14, back on the summer solstice.

As the cool upper air low pressure slowly slipped to our northeast earlier this month, summer moved in like gangbusters! We are now fully engulfed in a warm to hot summer-time pattern for the foreseeable future. While not sure whether we receive the 9th ninety degree day today or perhaps later in the week, let’s call it nine for now. For the forecast to verify, this would mean I only have 5 ninety degree days left in the bank for the entire month of August, even the first half of September, which has surprised in recent years.

Looking forward to August, computer models are forecasting warmer than normal weather patterns to continue for not only August, but September too! Keeping this in mind, I believe my original forecast of 15 to 19 ninety degree days would of been the better forecast this year. I always mentioned these are the trickiest summers to pin down. The potential was always there for summer to overwhelm the pattern. Computer models held on to the cool regime of early summer too long! Once that pattern broke down, it’s been off to the races.

One thing I’m keeping a very close eye on is whether Boston has a chance of reaching 20 ninety degree days this summer. If it does, it would be the first time in recorded history of back to back summers with 20+ ninety degree days! Last year, if you recall, we received 24 days!

I think there’s about a 20% chance, but we may fall just short. Right now, August is looking hot and mainly dry. I can see another 7 to 10 days of 90 degree temperatures. If we add this up with the 8 or 9 from July, we end up with 16 and 19 ninety degree days this summer. The wildcard is whether we can squeeze out another couple in September. Regardless, it looks like our second heat wave is on the way for the first week of August.

Aside from the heat, much of New England continues to be in a very dry weather pattern! In fact, the Boston area has been upgraded to severe drought conditions issued by the drought monitor report last Thursday. When the new report is issued this Thursday, I do not see any improvement, despite the chance of a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are typically scattered in nature. Unless they are widespread and persistent, they offer little relief in drought regions. However, as they say, every little bit helps! Sometimes, heavy thunderstorms can deliver big time in localized areas!

Some of the more reliable computer models were indicating a wet summer for New England. These same computer models are now predicting the abnormally dry conditions to persist through at least the first half of August. Boston is closing in on an 8″ precipitation deficit stemming back from last March. Seasonal drought is bad, worse is multi-seasonal drought. The absolute worst is multi-year drought! A long-standing drought from 2013 to 2020 finally came to an end last summer when 4 remnants of tropical storms tracked through New England, bringing with them torrential downpours and flooding. This abundant rainfall restored reservoirs, ponds, lakes and streams to our region. It also replenished our water table, which was almost non existent for several years.

I mentioned the rains will come…but perhaps they don’t? With an ongoing multi-year La Nina, there’s a chance we remain on the “dry” side through autumn and this upcoming winter. If the rainfall deficit continues to increase, it will place tremendous strain on local farms and gardens, ecosystem, and possibly even water we use in our daily lives. If you live in Boston, chances are you would only need to worry about your lawn and gardens. This is because our water comes directly from the Quabbin Reservoir in the western part of the state. Currently, the Quabbin is at 96.4% capacity.

We are extremely lucky here in Boston we have a very efficient aqueduct system that delivers clean water from the reservoir to 47 communities here in eastern Massachusetts, including the city of Boston. Back in the early 1960’s we had a similar multi-year drought when the reservoir dropped to 65% capacity. This was about as low as it’s been in recorded history. With the aqueduct system, it’s entirely possible for Boston to be in severe drought conditions, while plentiful rains fall across western New England, draining into the reservoir, keeping it full. Regardless where and how we receive our water, we need to always conserve this precious resource!

So when’s this relief from the heat arriving? Looking out the window, it looks like the clouds are going to prevent us from reaching 90 today. Regardless, it’s awfully muggy out, which makes the real feel temperature still feel like it’s in the 90’s. These clouds are associated with debris clouds from thunderstorms tracking to our north and west. Had we not have the cloud cover today, temperatures would of surely soared into at least the mid 90’s. There’s still an outside chance for a brief window where skies briefly become partly sunny later this afternoon before the cool front arrives. If this happens, temperatures could briefly spike to 90 degrees, but by the looks of it, this is a low probability at this point.

As the cool front approaches, a line of thunderstorms will approach the Boston area later today, between 5 and 8 PM. This is our best opportunity to receive a few downpours along with the chance of thunder. Latest computer guidance indicate the strongest dynamics to be north and west of Boston. However, as the actual cool front crosses eastern Massachusetts, a few storms may still fire up. As this front crosses the region this evening, it will serve to push out the stifling humidity, allowing lower dew point temperatures and drier air to flow into the region. At this point, the heat wave will be officially over!

Here’s your latest beach and boating forecast for this upcoming week, as well as peak into next week. Other than today and perhaps later Thursday, every other day looks to feature fantastic beach and boating weather, including yet another beautiful upcoming weekend! This has been one of the best summers in recent memory for beach and boating! Temperatures will be very warm but not as hot as last week. With mainly land breezes, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s even at the beaches. Other than a brief spike in humidity on Thursday, the dew point temperatures look to remain in check this week, with mainly comfortable levels. There is the potential for another heat wave arriving the following week, the first week of August. If this happens, expect a return of higher humidity levels, areas of fog and warm to hot temperatures at the beach. If you have this week off, you picked a good one!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10.

Watch for mainly cloudy skies for the rest of this afternoon. As mentioned above, a cool front is crossing New England this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted by the National Weather Service for much of eastern Massachusetts this afternoon. As the front approaches, there is the potential for a thunderstorms to cross the area. Some of these storms may produce winds in excess of 50 mph, torrential rain, hail and frequent lightning and thunder. Not every community is going to receive the storm, as they are scattered in nature. If you do hear a storm coming, seek shelter indoors until it passes.

After the front passes, a wind shift to the northwest will usher in drier humidity levels, leading to a more comfortable night of sleeping. Depending on your tolerance level, you may just need the window open, or you still may need the air conditioner. Temperatures will drop into the 60’s across much of our area, perhaps upper 50’s in rural communities. More importantly, dew point temperatures will drop into the 50’s overnight, which will lead to much more comfortable sleeping conditions!

Expect splendid mid-summer weather for both tomorrow and Wednesday, with mainly sunny skies, low levels of humidity and very warm temperatures. I’m expecting high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s both days, but should fall just short of 90. Tuesday night and Wednesday night will feature warm temperatures, but pleasant humidity levels.

An approaching cool front will bring increasing levels of humidity along with the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Before that happens, it could still be a beach day for the first part of the day. If we receive enough sun, temperatures may once again may make a run at 90, but probably fall just short.

Friday may start off with a few showers, especially south of Boston and on the Cape, but I’m expecting improving weather conditions as the day moves on. It will be another warm day, but with lower levels of humidity, it will feel comfortable to be outdoors.

If you love the beach, lakes or mountains, this weekend is looking absolutely spectacular! I would give it a 10 out of 10! All summer activities are a go! Expect sunny skies and very warm temperatures, with highs mainly in the upper 80’s. Saturday evening looks to be a fine summer evening for cook-outs and gathering with friends and family.

Beyond that, I can see the heat building into our region once again as we move into the first week of August. If we receive at least 3 consecutive days of 90 degrees, it would be our second official heat wave. I will monitor this situation and post any updates if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! My next update will be posted on August 8th. In my next update, I will be updating everyone on just how hot our weather will be for the remainder of August. I will also let you know whether our drought is going to break anytime soon, and also have an update on our hurricane season. In the meantime, enjoy the brief relief this week…we could be back into heat wave conditions come next week! Enjoy!

~Thanks for reading & be safe!~

Pete

Summer 2022: We’re Just Getting Started! 7/11/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their 4th of July holiday weekend and this past weekend! Wow! The weather could not of been more perfect! Certainly the complete opposite of last year, and a nice payback from Mother Nature! July 4th weekend featured fantastic weather each evening for all firework displays to be fired off without any weather delays or cancellations whatsoever! With low humidity in the air, light winds, the conditions were ideal to bring out the best in 4th of July colors! After one cloudy day last Tuesday, the amazing summer weather resumed on Wednesday straight on through this past weekend. Anyone who took last week off for vacation enjoyed summer weather at its best!

Hard to believe we are just about halfway through meteorological summer! No need to panic just yet! We all know astronomic summer goes all the way until September 22nd, so we have a ways to go yet! So far, I would rate this summer a 9 out of 10! If you love summers which feature comfortable temperatures, low humidity and with little to no rainfall, then this is summer for you! However, if you rather prefer more of a feel of summer, with muggy days and temperatures frequently in the 90’s, then I may have some good news for you too! Why you would prefer that type of weather is beyond me…but to each his own!

Could this be a summer with a split personality? After last years scorching first half to summer, this year has taken its time to reveal its true colors. So far, Boston has reached 90 degrees only twice, compared to almost a seasons worth this time last year. In reality, though somewhat behind average, this year is more of a typical summer we would expect to see around here. At this point of the summer, Boston would normally of received approximately 6 or 7 ninety degree days, on our way to about 14 or so in an average season.

I mentioned in my weather forum this morning how this summer reminds me quite a bit of summer 2015. While we have officially registered two 90 degree days so far this summer in Boston, it waited until July 14th to register it’s first 90 degree day that summer! Thereafter, Boston recovered nicely, observing 90 degrees 14 times the rest of the summer, which comes in perfectly average! Perhaps summer was being a courteous host, waiting until the final bit of snow from the record winter earlier that year finally melted at the Boston snow farm!

Whatever the reason, the second half of summer was much warmer than the first half that year. Though that year we had a strengthening El Nino and this year we have a strong La Nina, the end result should be a similar outcome. Persistent northwest flow with upper level low pressure sitting over the Canadian Maritimes have kept a northwest flow of cooler air flowing into New England from eastern Canada. This northwest flow has acted like a barrier, preventing any sustained hot and humid weather from arriving in New England. This is a also a very dry pattern for much of us here in New England. Beginning today, this pattern appears to be breaking down.

From this point moving forward, I’m expecting summer to feel more like summer. I’m still expecting between 10 and 14 ninety degree days this summer in Boston with 14 being my target number. My forecast called for a hotter than normal July, with between 8 and 11 ninety degree days. So far we have one, but with another two coming this week. I can see an additional half dozen or so before the month is done, as the patterns looks warmer for sure! We are also running approximately 3 degrees above normal for the month. I do not see any evidence of this number lowering, if anything it may be warmer than this by months end.

This appears to be our seasonal shift at play here. Our oceans have finally warmed up enough to allow summer to arrive into our region without resistance. Once here, it may be reluctant to leave, once again extending deep into our upcoming fall. I don’t think I’ll hear too many complaints if this pans out!

Overall, computer model precipitation outlook continues to look rather dry across New England through the rest of the month. This is quite alarming, as much of the region is now classified in moderate drought conditions. This is a also another good lesson not to follow what computer models say verbatim. So far, it’s been the exact opposite of what they were implying earlier in the season for us here in southern New England. They were indicating a somewhat wetter than normal summer, but so far that has not been the case.

After two extremely dry summers of 2019 and 2020, last summer caught up with rainfall deficits and then some with torrential rainfall. Reservoirs, lakes and rivers were all filled to capacity. More important, there was enough rainfall that made up the deficit from a multi year drought, replenishing the dried up water tables across the region. However, a rather lack luster winter was followed by a very dry spring this past season, and now an extremely dry start to summer this year, has once again brought us back on the verge of severe drought conditions…again!

Moving forward I’m not sure what to make of precipitation patterns the rest of the summer. While no widespread storm systems are anticipated, local thunderstorms can help bridge the gap from summer to winter precipitation with formidable amounts of rainfall. However, thunderstorms have been lacking for one reason or another this summer here in eastern New England. In addition, thunderstorms can be very localized, with one town receiving a deluge, while the next barely nothing. We shall see moving forward. However, with the expected pattern change to more of a southwest flow, this alone will increase humidity levels, and lead to increased threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. There is also still hope for an active hurricane season. Our best scenario would be to receive remnants from a tropical storm in a weakening state. Nobody wants a full fledged hurricane barreling into New England with widespread damage. New England received remnants from four tropical storms last year, bringing widespread torrential rains with very little if any wind damage.

Computer models are indicating a rapid up-tick in hurricane season. I have mentioned this on numerous occasions, New England is long over-due for a land falling hurricane. The last official hurricane to strike the region was Hurricane Bob, back in August of 1991. While this was a serious storm on Cape Cod, the eye of the storm passed south of Boston, keeping the worst of the destructive winds across the Cape.

We shall see how this season plays out. Hurricanes and tropical storms are some of the most fickle cyclones to track, due to weak steering currents and erratic behavior. Later in the summer, it would appear New England will become more susceptible to tropical storm activity. Many things play into the eventual track and intensity such as ocean temperatures and the strength and position of the Bermuda High off the east coast. As mentioned above, a weakening tropical storm can be very beneficial in replenishing our water supply, but we can do without the destructive winds!

Before Bob, the last major hurricane to strike New England was Donna back in 1960. Donna took a classic track that racked the entire east coast from the Florida Keys straight up the east coast into southern New England. Hurricane Donna slammed into southern New England as a cat 2 hurricane, and produced widespread tree and utility pole damage with wind gusts of up 140 mph at The Great Blue Hill Weather Observatory in Milton, Ma. Lower elevations received winds of between 80 and 90 mph, resulting in widespread damage. There was also Esther in 1961, but she remained offshore, though her slow erratic track led to a constant battering of winds to coastal communities.

The worst hurricane ever observed in New England, and by many accounts the worst storm ever recorded in New England was the infamous “1938 Hurricane” when 600 people drowned in Providence, R.I. due to a massive storm surge into the city, and winds gusting up to an unheard of 186 mph on top of Blue Hill! The equivalent winter storm occurred 40 years later when the “Great Blizzard of ’78” struck the Boston region.

No major storms to be concerned about this week! If you have a vacation, you picked another good week! Look for best beach days to be today through Wednesday. Then again this Saturday and Sunday. Thursday and Friday were left off, but by no means are these days wash-outs. Expect warmer temperatures this week, with mainly southwesterly winds. This will bring warm to hot temperatures right to east facing beaches in Massachusetts, but slightly cooler temperatures along the south coast of New England, including Cape Cod and the Islands. You know the routine, if it’s 90 in Boston, deduct at least 10 to 15 degrees down on the Cape. Humidity levels will also be on the increase as well as early morning low clouds and areas of fog. There is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow and tomorrow night, then again on later Thursday into Friday morning. Boaters will need to be aware of southwest winds on the south side of the Cape for the rest of today and much of Tuesday with 3 to 5ft seas. Winds should calm down Wednesday and Thursday leading to a lower chop, only to increase again by Friday. Looks like ideal boating conditions coming up this weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect sustained summer-like weather to finally move into New England and remain with us for the foreseeable future. Watch for warm to hot weather for the bulk of the upcoming week. I’m not expecting any wash-outs, but with the increase in heat and humidity, there is a greater chance of some afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially when a cool front is in the vicinity. Expect the best chance of rain to be later tomorrow into tomorrow evening, then again later Thursday into Friday morning. Expect high temperatures to be in the 80’s this afternoon, low 90’s tomorrow and Wednesday along with increased humidity, then mid to upper 80’s Thursday through Sunday. Perhaps slightly cooler on Friday with a slight drop in humidity levels. Low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60’s, especially in urban areas. Overall, it looks like another great vacation week, with more of a summery feel to the air.

Well, that’s about it for now! I’ll see everyone two weeks from today to talk about the summer patterns for the remainder of July heading into August. I will also have a new beach & boating forecast for everyone. Overall, it looks much warmer the next two weeks, with more chances of thunderstorms, but no complete washouts anticipated. In the meantime, enjoy the second half of summer as autumn awaits!

Be safe & thanks for reading!

Pete

July 4th Outlook: Cautiously Optimistic! 6/27/22

Hello! Happy week before July 4th and exactly two months to my birthday! I hope everyone was able to enjoy their weekend! Wow, what a great first official weekend of summer!  Saturday featured mainly sunny skies and very warm temperatures. It didn’t quite make 90 in Boston with a light sea-breeze, but many inland communities attained it. Sunday was slightly hotter, with Logan Airport officially reaching 90 degrees for the first time this season, and many other communities observing low to mid 90s’. We reached 92 degrees where I live in West Roxbury. Overall, it was a glorious weekend for the beach, a hike in the mountains, or relaxing by a lake!

So, Boston finally reached 90 for the first time this season! This was somewhat of a surprise to me, as I thought it may of waited until later this week for our first 90. Nevertheless, we reached it and off we go with our summer season! We would typically have about 4 so far in an average season. Last year, we already had 9 for June, leading the way to 24 for the season! In an average year, Boston receives one 90 degree day in May and three in June. In an average summer, Boston reaches 90 degrees or higher 14 times.

Last week, I posted my summer solstice update. With hesitation, I downgraded the expected 90 degree days from 15 to 19 down to 10 to 14. How do I feel about this change a week later? Well for one, I made the change, and that is now the official forecast. If we hadn’t hit 90 this past weekend, I would of strangely felt better about the revised forecast. Yet, I feel fairly confident about the change. On a scale of 1 to 10, I would say I’m at about a 7.  As we witnessed last summer, these 90 degree days can pile up in a hurry! Despite summer being close to a third over, we still have a long way to go!

In fact, on average, our hottest temperatures still lie ahead. As I mentioned last week, our hottest period of the entire year ranges from July 1st to August 15th. For this summer, I am concerned about a burst of hot weather around here this July. During this burst of heat, Boston may pile up enough 90 degree days to bring us close to the 10 to 14 day range…and we still would have all of August and September to go!

No doubt, it’s a tricky forecast this summer! Last summer, the patterns were locked in, and I was very confident about relentless heat and humidity through August. I could see just by seasonal shifts, summer was going to take over in a big way. After a scorching June, we dipped below average for July (mainly due to torrential rains & wet soils), only to ramp up to well above average for August and September. This year, patterns do not look as stable. With the exception of the burst of heat I’m expecting in July, it looks very changeable to me. If hot weather makes it in for a day or two, patterns will abruptly shift to cooler air.

Even with the hot July, I don’t believe Boston will go much higher than 14 or 15 ninety degree days this summer. My official target number is 14. If by chance the heat really ramps up  & surpasses 20 again this summer, I would become a firm climate change believer. It sounds silly, but the fact of the matter is Boston has never observed back to back years with 20 + ninety degree days. I know there’s always a first time for everything, but in the warming climate we are living in, this would be a game changer for years to come, should we attain those numbers.

I can tell you this. Mother Nature is fighting like heck for this not to happen! It’s fascinating watching the incredible heat across the middle of the country day after day in June, only to get thwarted away on its approach to New England. I must say, we have enjoyed one of the most beautiful June’s I can recall! So far, June is averaging slightly above average, oscillating from warm to cool days. The oppressive steam heat to our south and west has been blunted by a cool northwest flow from eastern Canada. The balance between the two has brought an equilibrium of pleasant temperatures to our region. Will this pleasant balance continue into July, or will the intense heat overwhelm us?

My official forecast for July calls for above average temperatures. In comparison with seasons, this would be the same as saying January is going to be colder than normal. Because these months are the warmest and coldest of the year respectively, you can expect to feel the difference more than other months. Meaning July is our hottest month of the year, so above average temperatures in the hottest month of the year means it’s going to feel that much hotter!

How hot? Boston typically receives approximately 6 ninety degree days on average during July. This year, I’m expecting 8 to 11 days. Our first one will arrive this Friday, on July 1st! There’s also a good chance of an additional 90 degree day on Saturday, July 2nd! Any below average temperatures in July still means warm temperatures, with highs in the 70’s. Overall, I’m expecting July to be 1 to 3 degrees warmer than average this year. I’m expecting near average rainfall this July. If this verifies, it would be an improvement over the dry spring we have experienced so far, and much less than the deluge of last year. July is typically our driest month of the year in Boston with just about 3 1/2″ of rain.

If you love summer weather and going to the beach, I would enjoy July as much as possible. There are indications summer heat may not persist as deep into the season as previous years. It’s still far away, but there are some signals from computer models of increased tropical activity along the east coast as we get deeper into summer. This could put a premature damper on summer heat in August this year. I will monitor and update everyone as conditions warrant.

As much as I love winter, some would be surprised I also enjoy summer as well! One of my favorite holidays has always been the 4th of July! I always enjoy this time of year spending time with family & friends! It was also always fun celebrating my moms birthday on July 1st each year! One thing you could always count on, was hot weather around the 4th! This is why last year was such an anomaly! Who will ever forget the windswept soaking nor’easter, with temperatures in the 50’s! Wow, the 4th was a complete wash out!

It would be impossible for this to happen two years in a row, right? No, it would not be impossible. Anything can happen when it comes to the weather. Fortunately, the odds of it happening are extremely low! After all, July is supposed to be our least stormy month out of the year! Last week, I was becoming concerned with some computer model outlook for the 4th. They were actually hinting at a similar scenario to last year! A stalled front with a low pressure developing on it, with an unseasonably cool air mass moving in!

Recent computer data has backed off this dooms day scenario, but we’re not completely out of the woods just yet. Latest forecast is now showing another brief surge of hot weather arriving Friday and Saturday. Now, there will be a cooler air mass pushing in from the north over the weekend. The transition from hot to cool means there is a cold front pressing through the region. If there are no complications and the front keeps moving along, it should clear out during Sunday, leading us to a very pleasant Sunday evening and for the 4th itself! In between, there will be a line of showers and thunderstorms which may foul up some outdoor plans later Saturday which may continue into Sunday morning. Timing on this front and inclement weather may need to be adjusted. It’s not going to be perfect, but a marked improvement over last year, indeed!

Time for your beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10! After today, expect good to excellent beach weather for the balance of the week! There will be beach weather over the weekend as well, but there is the risk of a band of showers and thunderstorms moving through the region as stated above. Skies may clear soon enough for beach weather to resume on Sunday, and especially on the 4th. For boaters, ground swells and choppy seas continue to hamper small boaters off the New England coast through today. Watch for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Not a good day to be out on the waters. Tuesday should feature lighter winds with a smaller swell, only to slightly increase Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty southwest winds may increase swell Friday and Saturday across southern waters ahead of another cold front. Thunderstorms are likely to cross coastal waters later Saturday into Sunday morning. Thereafter, pleasant boating conditions should return for the holiday.

Now for your regional summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect a band of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm to cross the region this afternoon and early evening. It will be mild, but certainly cooler than yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. Skies may begin to clear this evening, perhaps with a colorful sunset?

Expect clearing skies overnight, with a much cooler and drier air mass moving in! Time to give the ac a break! Low temperatures will fall back into the 50’s and lower 60’s.

Tuesday should be a fine day, with sunny skies and very low humidity levels. There may be some afternoon fair weather clouds popping up, but it will be too dry for any rain showers, Expect temperatures to warm up into the 70’s to near 80, warmest near the coast.

Watch for fair and cool weather Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 50’s and low 60’s, but some rural communities may fall into the upper 40’s.

Fair weather will continue Wednesday through Friday with a warming trend. The only chance I see for any scattered showers will be on Wednesday, but they would only be scattered during the afternoon, and only about a 20% chance. Temperatures will range form the lower 80s’ on Wednesday. Mid to upper 80’s on Thursday, and low 90’s on Friday similar temperatures to this past Sunday. Hello, July!

As mentioned above, a cold front will be pressing through New England over the weekend. Before it arrives, Boston may reach 90 once again on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be arriving first up in northern New England, then arriving in southern New England later in the day and at night. Again, timing may change so please check in with local media outlets regarding firework displays and delays.

The big question at this moment is just how fast is this cold front going to clear the coast? If it keeps moving along, we could salvage a nice day with warm temperatures on Sunday. If it slows down for any reason, there may be some lingering showers Sunday morning, then clouds slowly decreasing during the day. Worst weather on Sunday may be along the south coast, Cape & Islands. Regardless, it looks like pleasant weather conditions for fireworks displays for both Sunday evening and on the 4th itself.

Outlook for next Monday, July 4th looks to be a very pleasant day at this early juncture. Again, things can change this far out, only calling it as I see it at this moment. Right now, it looks to be a sunny day, with light winds, and highs near 80 degrees. I hope this verifies!!

Well, that’s about it for now, friends! I will be taking a break from the blog on July 4th to spend some time down the Cape with family! I may post a quick weekly forecast so everyone will be up to date. Otherwise, in my next blog I will be looking over latest information on just how I’m expecting July to become. I will also have a new beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, I’m hoping cautiously optimistic trends towards extremely optimistic as the week moves forward!

~Wishing everyone a safe & happy, July 4th!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer Update: Delayed…Not Denied! 6/20/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Father’s Day weekend! The weather left a lot to be desired! Saturday began mild with some sun, but the afternoon turned decidedly cooler with cloudy skies. Winds picked up Saturday night as temperatures continues to fall through the 50’s. A band of rain slowly tracked east, reaching the Boston area with some soaking downpours early Sunday morning.Overall, not ideal.

You would think weather systems would progress west to east, and sunshine would follow after the rain moved through on Sunday. For a brief moment, it appeared that this would be the case. Things suddenly changed. As I mentioned in my forecast last week, a storm stalled off the Maine coast continued to pinwheel heavy clouds and light showers through much of the day across much of eastern New England. Steady rain fell up in northern Maine leading to a miserable, cold day. In addition to the clouds, temperatures struggled to reach the low 60’s, spending much of the day in the upper 50’s. Unless you live in Vermont or western Massachusetts, it was quite an unseasonably cold and unsettled weekend.

In fact, it was so cold, Mt. Washington up in New Hampshire received a record setting 1.3″ of snow on Sunday! I was speaking with a friend on Sunday, and she informed me a bike riding event to the summit of Mt. Washington was altered to only half way up the mountain, as conditions were too severe at the summit! This was definitely the right move, as conditions at the summit featured 70 mph winds, icy snow falling, and bitterly cold wind chills. Very rough conditions for mid winter, let along mid June!

Today I have some good news for everyone, and some not so good news. The good news is the summer solstice officially arrives tomorrow morning at 5:13 AM! The not so good news is beginning on Wednesday, the days will begin to shorten! No need to panic just yet, this does not mean summer is over! Our warmest weather of the year still lies ahead, typically from July 1st to August 15th. In addition, you will not notice the days shortening until later in July. This is similar when the winter solstice arrives in December, you wouldn’t notice the days getting longer until sometime in late January. It starts off as just seconds, accelerating to minutes as we head into August and especially September.

As I have mentioned many times in previous posts, June is a funny month. It can feature real summery weather, such as last year, or a continuation of spring patterns. This year, June has been more like spring, with no 90 degree temperatures recorded in Boston, and many cool blustery days. Yet, you would be surprised to learn June is running about where it should be up to this point. With a slightly warmer end to the month, it’s not out of the question the month ends up slightly warmer than the long term average.

Indeed, the summer forecast has proven to be a much more challenging than first expected! My initial forecast posted back on May 23rd called for a hotter than normal summer, with between 15 and 19 ninety degree days. Somewhat like last year, but a bit less intense version.  In terms of rating how hot the summer was or is going to be, we determine this by how many 90 degree days and heat waves we receive. Last summer Boston received 24 ninety degree days, four heat waves and 0ne 100 degree day on the last day of June. The most 90 degree days Boston has observed in recorded history was 30 back in 1983.

In my preliminary forecast, I mentioned that if anything, I would be scaling back the projected number, not increasing it. This is the exact opposite from last year, when I increased the range from 15 to 19, to 19 to 23 at the summer solstice update. This still wasn’t enough as we went on to reach ninety degrees 24 times as mentioned above!

Up to this point, trying to pin down the summer forecast is like throwing darts while wearing a blindfold! Long range computer models continue to indicate a hot summer is still coming. Meanwhile, Mother Nature continues to defy odds, keeping the heat away from New England. Could this be a classic head fake from Mother Nature, keeping us cool until the real summer patterns settle in? The big question moving forward is if persistent blocking in Greenland will weaken to allow the jet stream to lift north of New England, allowing the hot air to shift into our region.

With some hesitation, I believe this will occur. While it’s been cool, I believe summer patterns will evolve as they have in recent years…it’s just taking its sweet old time! In many ways, it reminds me of summer 2015. This was the summer coming off the brutal historic winter of 2014-15. I recall no 90 degree days until mid July that year! Yet we still ended up with 14, which is the typical average Boston receives. That summer ended up being about as close to normal as you can get. However, once summer settled in, it was in no hurry leaving, as Boston continued to benefit with a very warm autumn, which culminated with 70 degree temperatures on Christmas Day that year!

As ocean temperatures warm up along the east coast, so to will our summer temperatures. Expect our hottest weather this summer to occur from mid July to mid September. Due to slow start to summer, I’m going to trend the 90 degree temperature range downward. I am a firm believer in sticking with my first call, but I believe with the late start to summer, and anticipation of wetter than normal soil, I think it’s the right call to scale it back. Instead of 15 to 19 days I called for earlier, I’m now expecting between 10 and 14 ninety degree days in Boston this summer. This is considerably less than last year, but still very close to what summers should be around here.

At this moment, if I would to give a more precise number on where I believe this will end up, I would lean towards the higher end of this range; 14 seems reasonable to me.

In addition. computer models continue to indicate a wet signal for the eastern seaboard. This leads me to believe that the potential for tropical storm activity and hurricanes are higher than average this year. This is not a guarantee, but with ocean temperatures above average, a third year La Nina and steering currents coming up from the tropics later this summer, it would not surprise me in the least if we see a threat from a hurricane along the eastern seaboard later this summer, early fall.

What could go wrong? It’s possible the heat developing along the east coast is more intense than anticipated. If this were to happen, we could see a very hot July, August and even part of September. If the rainfall does not materialize, this would allow temperatures to become even hotter, due to dry soil levels. If this were to verify, then my original call of 15 to 19 ninety degree days would most likely be the correct outcome. A cooler than normal summer is not anticipated at this moment. We shall see!

How’s your beach and boating forecast looking for this week. I still see no 90 degree temperatures for the next 7 to 10 days around here. Nonetheless, temperatures are going to trend warmer later this week into next weekend. Certainly warm enough for the beach! Before then, expect localized sea breezes keeping it a bit cooler at the beach, maybe too cool for some? Best days for the beach this week look to be today, tomorrow, then again on Saturday and first part of Sunday. I would rate this week a 6 out of 10. I’m expecting lots of clouds on Wednesday, with the chance of showers and downpours on Thursday and part of Friday. After this system moves offshore, expect warmer temperatures, with highs in the 80’s to move back into the region this weekend. If you plan on doing some boating, expect today, tomorrow and even part of Wednesday to feature decent boating conditions. Thursday and early Friday do not look great, with areas of fog and showers. The sun may come out by Friday afternoon with warm temperatures and possible afternoon beach weather. Summer weather will arrive this weekend, with generally dry and warm temperatures. A front approaching later Sunday may bring clouds and possibly some showers late in the day or at night. Highs will be in the mid 80’s.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I’m rating this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect mainly sunny and mild weather for the rest of this afternoon and evening. With light winds it will feel pleasant outdoors, with highs in the low to mid 70’s.

Look for pleasant weather to continue overnight under clear and cool conditions. Low temperatures will fall into the 40’s and 50’s in rural areas, but low 60’s in urban locations.

Overall, expect a pleasant day for your Tuesday. Happy first day of summer! Watch for mostly sunny skies in the morning to fade behind high clouds in the afternoon. It will be seasonable, with highs between 75 and 80. With low levels of humidity, it will feel very pleasant to be outdoors.

I’m expecting mainly dry weather to persist Tuesday evening and into the overnight. A warm front will be approaching from the west, but won’t make much more progress than the New York State border. Clouds will be on the increase across our region, but I don’t believe we’ll see any rain in our area. However, you may encounter some showers & thunderstorms across western parts of Massachusetts and Connecticut. It will be a bit warmer, with lows in the low 60’s.

Wednesday and Thursday look unsettled at this point. I’m not expecting it to be raining every moment, but Wednesday looks to be cloudy at the very least with a chance of some showers, especially during the afternoon. The best chance for rain this week looks to be on Thursday, when the warm front out west will converge with an area of low pressure southeast, which may bring a period of steady rain and possibly even some tropical downpours. It will be warm and on the muggy side, with highs in the mid 70’s.

This activity should move off the coast by Friday morning, leading to a warmer and sunnier conditions by afternoon. Highs should respond up into the low 80’s.

At this point, Saturday looks to be a great beach day, with lots of sun, and warmer temperatures. Temperatures will reach the mid 80’s inland, though there may be some local sea breezes keeping it about 10 degrees cooler along the coast. This will not make it feel cold, just refreshingly cooler.

Expect similar weather on Sunday, though there may be increasing clouds during the afternoon with the threat of showers by days end or at night. Timing may change with this forecast this far out, so please check in with local media outlets with updates.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your July preview, and review of June. I will also have your all important 4th of July weekend weather forecast, which will include the beach and boating forecast! In the meantime, a good friend of mine used to say once we past the 4th of July, summer is over. With this years pattern, it may be just the beginning! Enjoy!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

So Close…Yet Still So Far Away! 6/13/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a much nicer weekend than I had anticipated when I made my forecast last Monday. Saturday was the sunnier day, but Sunday featured a good amount of sun too, and was slightly warmer. The rain that was projected to move int our area late Sunday afternoon was delayed and it actually became more sunny as the day went along. Eventually, thunderstorms tracked across the region during the wee hours of the morning, especially south of Boston towards the Cape, where many folks were awoken by loud thunder! The heaviest of rain just missed Boston, altogether!

This was a good 12 hours later than predicted! This is why I always mention checking in with local media outlets for the latest forecast,  though even that’s not always correct. I saw forecasts as late as 11:00 pm Saturday evening calling for showers to move into Boston by Sunday afternoon! So unpredictable! As the summer saying goes, the forecast may call for showers, but don’t cancel plans!

No doubt, these types of patterns are annoying for people who plan outdoor events, beach goers, and anyone who works outdoors! Computer models were showing a lot more rain than what actually fell. Yes, there were some torrential downpours early Wednesday morning. Some communities received between 1 and 2″ of rain in a very short period of time. What this means is that we’re finally moving out of winter & spring patterns, and entering summer patterns.

This means most rainfall we receive moving forward will be associated with cold front and warm fronts, not with actual low pressure systems we receive in winter and fall months. This is why after the rain moved off the coast, the sun reemerged and it turned out being a beautiful day! Last week I gave a rating of 5 out 0f 10, when in actuality it was more like an 8 out of 10! Many times it all has to do with timing. It just so happened the rain occurred mainly overnight, allowing for clearing skies the following morning.

I must say, it may not be the hottest summer we’ve ever experienced, but so far Mother Nature’s timing of inclement weather has been impeccable this June! Especially compared to last year when all major summer holidays were washouts! Rain threatened Memorial Day weekend this year too, but a last second shift in the weather pattern led to quite a spectacular weekend across much of New England. It’s still a bit too early to tell our fate for the 4th of July weekend, but I’m anticipating another reversal of good fortune compared to last year!

Speaking of summer, we are now just slightly over one week away form the summer solstice! Astronomical summer arrives on Tuesday, June 21st this year. Up to this point, Boston has yet to register its first 90 degree day. We came oh so close on Memorial Day, but fell just short with a high of 89 degrees. According to Assistant Chief Weather Observer of the Blue Hills Observatory in Milton, Ma. Matthew Douglas, Boston actually did reach 90 degrees on Memorial Day. However, to be official, it needs to maintain the same temperature for three consecutive minutes. Apparently it was only 90 degrees for 2 minutes, which does not make it official!

Could this be a sign from Mother Nature to expect a less hot summer this year, with fewer 90 degree days? Nothing is for sure, but I believe it could be true! While last year we were piling up 90 degree days quicker than we could count in June, even seeing it reach 100 degrees one day, so far this year we have not had one, and there are no 90 degree days in our immediate future! I mentioned this last week, this still could be a head fake from Mother Nature. There have been many years I have seen the pattern abruptly shift to ‘summer heat’ as soon as we pass the solstice.

Indeed, indications still are pointing towards a warmer than normal summer around here. At this moment, summer heat dome continues to bake portions of Texas and the Midwest. This is what they call an “Omega” pattern, as it looks like the Greek letter Omega. Picture a garden hose with a big trough or dip in across the western third of the U.S. including California and the Pacific Northwest. This region is experiencing even cooler weather than we are. In fact, snow continues to fall across the higher elevations in Washington State and Oregon. Meanwhile, picture the hose bulging north across the southern plains and Midwest, where a huge heat dome exists. In these locations temperatures have been well above normal, with many 90’s and 100’s being observed. As one travels east towards the east coat and New England, the garden hose dips again, creating a deep trough of low pressure, with much cooler temperatures so far this June. This air is coming directly out of eastern Canada into New England.

The big question moving forward, is whether this Omega block breaks down, allowing hot air to stream into New England? From this point forward, we are going in one of two directions. First, the blocking pattern will break down, allowing for hot weather conditions to finally arrive into New England. This would make for a hot July and August, piling up the 90 degree days to between 15 and 19. Second, this persistent northwest flow continues through much of the summer, essentially cutting off the very hot air from arriving to New England. This would lead to a cooler summer, with between 10 and 14 ninety degree days. This type of pattern would also lead to a drier than normal summer, where the former would lead to a wetter summer. I will have my final call on our changeable summer forecast a week from today! Stay tuned!

In a warming climate, it may seem foolish to forecast a cooler than normal summer here in Boston. We’ve had an unprecedented run of warmer than normal summers here in Boston. In fact, last summer was the warmest summer in recorded history in Boston! Does this mean every summer moving forward is going to be hotter than normal? A better question to ask is what is even normal these days? On average, Boston receives 14 ninety degree days per summer season. Judging by how many 90 degree days we’ve been receiving over the last 10 years, this number may actually be close to 16 or 17 days.

I still believe this is all cyclical. However, in all honesty, I’m beginning to have my doubts about this theory. The warm records the last 10 years have been nothing short of alarming. Yes, we’re still receiving snow in the winter, but it appears as if it’s falling in a short 6 week period at the very coldest time of the year. Years back, winter would arrive just after Thanksgiving, and continue strong through March. Now, winter is delayed on arriving until after New Year’s, and is pretty much wrapped up by the end of February. March used to be a solid winter month through the equinox. March 2013 and 2018 were indeed snowy around here, but the last 4 years have seen a early vacate to winter. Many still claim this is just normal March variations around here, which may be true.

With all that being said, latest global temperature readings have showed a slight decrease in temperatures. That alone is not significant at all. However, it does possibly signify that maybe the warming we’ve experienced the last 30 years has reached its high point? Research has shown we are going to experience more La Nina’s (cooler oceans) vs El Nino’s (warmer oceans) in the foreseeable future. Indeed, we are now entering a third year La Nina, which may continue into a unprecedented fourth year next year.

Given time, cooler Pacific Oceans can help stabilize global temperatures. In addition, latest research from Science Alert is indicating there may be a collapse in a Atlantic current which brings warm ocean waters to the North Atlantic regions. Could Global Warming be its own demise? Warming of the Greenland ice sheet has produced nearly 5 trillion gallons of fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean in recent years.

This could shift the Gulf Stream, which transports warm water to northern regions, modifying the climate in areas where it would normally be inhospitable to live. A change in currents could lead to devastating climate change in areas such as Scotland, England and Ireland who rely on the Gulf Stream to make the climate warmer. Other regions that could experience colder and snowier climates would be Iceland, Newfoundland…even New England!

I am watching the patterns very carefully next few weeks. If summer surges into New England, and we see 20 +  ninety degree days here in Boston, then I would more inclined to believe there has been a marked change in our climate. It sounds silly, just this one statistic, but back to back summers with 20 + ninety degree days has never happened in recorded history here in Boston..

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Not too bad for mid June! Expect the best beach days to be today, tomorrow and even Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will be a bit shaky but the beach is not out of the question. Watch with more humidity on those days, fog and a chance of thunder. A strong cold front will bring September like weather this weekend. Cold air aloft may bring afternoon showers even some small hail across the interior, but are less likely at the beach. Just keep an eye to the sky for dark clouds just in case! It will also be windy and may be too cool for the beach, with highs in the 70’s. Boating looks good, though watch for southerly winds, fog and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday. No doubt, there will be a chop with brisk northwest winds this weekend, along with the chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Time for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect warm temperatures for the rest of this afternoon. There may be a light sea breeze along the coast keeping temperatures in the 70’s. Otherwise, temperatures may warm into the lower 80’s, though 70’s along the coast. It should be a fine evening for a walk, though there is an slight chance of a late afternoon shower.

Tonight should feature fair and mild conditions, with lows in the 50’s and low 60’s.

Expect spectacular June weather for both tomorrow and Wednesday with ample sunshine and light winds! Tuesday will be slightly warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80’s. It may be a little warm for some folks, otherwise I would call it a perfect 10! A light sea breeze may cool temperatures back into the 70’s on Wednesday.

Watch for the rising full “Strawberry Moon” tomorrow evening! It should be a perfect evening for a stroll along the beach for this viewing! Warm temperatures will give way to a pleasant overnight, though some may click on the air conditioning.

Weather patterns will be changing for both Thursday and Friday of this week. As high pressure moves off the coast, southerly winds will introduce more humidity, low clouds, fog and showers. As a strong cold front approaches Friday, we may be dealing with some strong to severe thunderstorms, especially across the interior. One note about these two days, no washout is anticipated, and there will be times of tropical sunny breaks from time to time. A few hours of beach time is still possible, if you time it right. It’s a warm, summery pattern this week.

As mentioned above, a strong cold front will be clearing the coast Friday night. This may bring a few strong thunderstorms across our region. Marine air may weaken these storms as they approach the coast, but that’s not a guarantee. Temperatures will be warm and the air will be muggy. If we get a enough sun, temperatures may warm up into the mid to upper 80’s.

Watch for cooler and drier weather to follow for both Saturday and Sunday. As mentioned earlier, it will feel and look more like September for the the last weekend of spring. Once again, I’m not anticipating any washouts. However, with cold air aloft, there will be some pop up scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms that form in the cold unstable air aloft. There’s also a chance of small hail in situations like this, along with gusty winds. Otherwise, expect temperature in the 70’s, and overnight lows in the 50’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my final summer forecast ideas. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast for the first official week of summer! Also tune in for your detailed weekly summer forecast. It’s all about summer! In the meantime, if you love hot summers, no need to panic just yet! The good news summer is there…it’s just a matter of getting there to  here!

*Wishing my sister Pam a Happy Belated Birthday (June 11th)!! My biggest weather blog fan!!*

~Thanks for reading & be safe!~

Pete

Sun & Rain! 6/6/22

Hello! Happy meteorological summer! I hope everyone enjoyed their Memorial Day weekend, and also this past weekend! Overall, we couldn’t of asked for better weather! This was a nice payback from the 3 day nor’easter of Memorial Day weekend 2021. This year, Memorial Day featured very warm temperatures, with highs in the upper 80’s across the region. If you were expecting permanent summer weather through September, Tuesday dashed those hopes! A strong back door cold front plummeted temperatures from early morning highs in the 80’s, down through the 50’s by afternoon, courtesy of gusty northeast winds!

Generally cool and cloudy weather remained with us the rest of the week through Friday. Weather patterns suddenly shifted this past weekend, and for the better! Fine early summer, late spring weather greeted many for both Saturday and Sunday with sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70’s across the area. Maybe a bit too cool for the beach for some, but perfect for many other outdoor activities!

What exactly is a back door cold front? Typically, cold fronts move from west to east or northwest to southeast through New England. However, a back door cold front moves backwards from northeast to southwest, first tracking across eastern New England, then moving southwest towards Connecticut and western Massachusetts. This is mainly a springtime phenomenon here in New England. Cool air begins to pool off the Canadian Maritimes, then plows into New England, dashing any hopes of an early summer!

In most cases cold ocean temperatures can influence the invasion of cool air into the coastal plain, resulting in a chilling sea-breeze within 20 miles of the coast. However, in some cases such as last week, cold high pressure across southern Canada can force a back door cold front all the way through New York state and beyond. This can temporarily rearrange a warm weather pattern, delaying summertime weather here in eastern New England.

June 1st marked the beginning of meteorological summer. It also is the start of hurricane season. We are all still in the very early preliminary stages of both seasons. Astronomical summer arrives on June 21st this year. The summer solstice can arrive anywhere from June 20th to the 22nd. Though we have seen a few bursts of warm weather, there has been no 90 degree days officially recorded at Logan Airport this season so far. This in itself is not unusual at all.

Spring patterns tend to persist into June around here. Though we can still get a raw day here and there, most days are warmer now, with highs in the 70’s and even 80’s. Last year was a complete anomaly. If you recall, Boston observed it’s hottest June on record! The city recorded 9 ninety degree days…even 100 degrees on the last day of the month! July may of been just as hot if it were not for the torrential rains we received. As it was, we still managed 6 ninety degree days. August dried out a bit, leading to 9 ninety degree days for a total of 24 for the summer. Oddly, there were no more 90 degree days in September last year, which once again turned very wet.

We are already a week into June. So far, June has featured mainly below average temperatures. If we can keep the sea-breeze away today, Boston may see its first above average day of the month. Regardless, I see no major sustained heat in Boston through at least the summer solstice. Thereafter, it’s going to be interesting to see if there’s a rebound in temperatures. Late season high latitude blocking may continue to maintain a trough (cool & unsettled) over New England. However there are also some signs of a Bermuda type ridge of high pressure building along the east coast.  Right now, I’m leaning in this direction. I’m thinking we may be cool for the majority of the month, but a late month surge of warm to hot weather may once again bump us to above average. I’m also thinking we are going to receive above average rain this June. We’ll see just hot wet it gets, but it looks like some good soakings lining up over the next 7 to 10 days.

It’s very difficult maintaining cooler than normal temperatures in a summer month around here. I’m not saying it can’t happen, it’s just that it’s been a rare occurrence over the past 10 years or so here in the Boston area. A perfect example of this was our recent May weather. May featured many cooler than normal days and looked to be a lock for below average month. However, several very warm days at the end of the month bumped us above average. May was also a very dry month, with most locations receiving barely half of the precipitation they normally receive.

When I made my summer forecast back on May 23rd, the confidence level was high. Since then, the level has slipped to moderate. Trends have been for warmer summers, as 9 out of the last 12 summers have been hotter than normal in Boston. Computer models were roasting New England with well above normal temperatures, which typically translates into many 90 degree days. As I mentioned above, it’s still early. Many times true summer patterns do not reveal themselves until the actual solstice arrives. Spring patterns can persist deep into June, leading one to believe a cool summer is on the way.

As I mentioned in my summer forecast, I didn’t fully take the record hot summer bait portrayed by the models. I mentioned Boston has never observed back to back summers of 20 + ninety degree days in recorded history. I still felt it was going to be hotter than average, so I came up with a number of 15 to 19 ninety degree days. Average in Boston for any given summer is 14 days. Last summer the city recorded a whopping 24 days!

With all this being said, latest computer models have backed off on the very hot summer for Boston…especially for June. Most models are now painting a fairly seasonable summer, with warm temperatures, but nothing too extreme. I mentioned in my post that this could be similar to last summer, though not as extreme. I can see heat ridges building out in the western part of the country, a trough in the middle, and another ridge along the east coast extending up into New England. This would bring a very warm summer to Boston, but not particularly a hot one. We should see our share of 90 degree days, but most likely not to the extent of last summer.

Part of the hesitation calling for a hot summer is the continued signal for above normal rain in our area this summer. Yes, it’s been dry past couple months. In fact, parts of the Boston area is currently under a moderate drought! Latest computer data shows drought conditions improving across our region, as storm tracks become more favorable for rain events over the next 30 to 60 days. In fact, the signal strengthens as we head towards August. This leads me to believe there may experience above normal tropical activity along the east coast during this time!

I will carefully study all of the latest computer model data for my final update around the solstice. There is a very good chance I may be lowering that 90 degree day projection. It makes sense in my opinion. While climate change is real, Boston’s climate is not Washington D.C. Yes, we’ve had a string of hot summers, but we don’t average 30 ninety degree days per year around here. I will say this, if we do break 20 ninety degree days this summer in Boston, I will fully comply with climate change activists and proclaim we have entered into a new climate regime here in Boston! My final summer forecast will be posted on June 20th.

Here’s your beach and boating forecast for the upcoming week. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Best beach days this week will be limited to today, tomorrow and possibly Friday. Onshore breezes will keep temperatures mainly in the 70’s this week at the beaches. More humid air flowing in from the south will mean low clouds and patchy areas of fog. In addition, watch for rainy periods late Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday, then for a good chunk of Thursday. Another storm system may foul up your weekend plans with more rain later Saturday into the first half of Sunday. Timing may change for next weekends forecast, so check in with local media outlet for latest information. Boaters may encounter a rough chop tomorrow, Thursday and then again sometime this weekend with a storm passing south of New England with northeast winds.

Now time for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect a stunning day today with plenty of sunshine and light winds. There may be some high clouds later this afternoon, but may only act as a decorative look to the sky. Temperature will respond to the strong June sun, with highs close to 80 in many communities, except 70’s along the coast with light sea-breezes.

Look for generally fair weather this evening and into the overnight with cool temperatures. Despite some high clouds, temperatures will still fall into the 40’s across rural locations, and 50’s in urban areas.

Tuesday should feature a mix of sun and clouds. With a southerly flow, temperatures will be slightly warmer across many locations with the exception of the south coast. Expect high temperatures to be in the low 80’s, but deduct 10 degrees across the south coast with the breeze coming in off of the ocean. I am not expecting any rain tomorrow.

A cold front will be approaching New England Tuesday night, but may stall across western Massachusetts on Wednesday. Watch for a band of showers to approach our region well after midnight and continue into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Thereafter, the balance of Wednesday looks to be warm and humid, with the chance for more showers and thunderstorms at any given time during the day, more specifically during the late afternoon and evening. High temperatures should reach the low 80’s.

As this cold front slowly pushes towards the coast, another low pressure is expected to develop across the Mid Atlantic region and track near or over the Boston area. If this verifies, eastern Massachusetts would receive a good soaking of rain, with embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night into the Thursday morning.

A cooler, drier air mass would follow this storm system later Thursday and into Friday, with nothing more than some instability showers, though nothing widespread is anticipated. Friday could turn into a beautiful day if things work out according to plan.

As mentioned above, the weekend is looking unsettled at this point. Yet another storm system will be developing across the Tennessee Valley and then track up towards New England. I know, it sounds like a winter-time scenario! Indeed if it were January, we’d be talking snow! Timing is not set in stone, but this looks like it’s coming in later Saturday, especially Saturday night, and pulling out Sunday morning. Not ideal for weekend plans at the beach, but this could still change this far out. I’m only calling it as I see it. In addition, if this storm tracks south of New England, it would introduce northeast winds and very cool temperatures for this time of the year, at least for Saturday night and into Sunday. Check in with local media updates on the timing of this weather system.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking another in depth look at our summer patterns, and update everyone if I see any new developments. I will also be talking about a cooler earth, and whether this may have anything to do with our summer patterns. Check in for the latest beach and boating forecast, as well as a new summer activity forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the sun, as well as the rain…we need it!

~Be safe, and thanks for reading!~

Pete