Summer Forecast: Similar to 2021? 5/23/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Yes, it was a most interesting weekend around here weather wise! Folks who flocked to the beach on Saturday anticipating temperatures in the 90’s with tons of sun were undoubtedly disappointed! That’s what the forecast called for anyway! In reality, persistent low clouds and northeast winds kept coastal areas socked in with cool temperatures until early afternoon! By the time the sun finally burned through the clouds, it was too late for the coast to recover. To add insult to injury, sea breezes developed when the coast finally began to warm up, knocking temperatures back down into the upper 60’s. This was not the case across inland parts of the city, where temperatures did respond quite quickly, warming up into the mid 80’s. Still, this was a far cry from the projected highs of 94 degrees on Saturday.

While inland areas heated up into the mid 90’s on Sunday, relief was found at the beaches, where a light sea breeze made it feel a bit more tolerable holding temperatures in the upper 80’s right at the beach. Overall, the horrible heat we feared did make an appearance in most communities on Sunday, but we escaped the horrendous conditions that were anticipated for both days.

We celebrated my nieces college graduation yesterday at an outdoor ceremony. Family members and myself were nearly overcome with heat exhaustion, as temperatures soared into the low to mid 90’s…I can only imagination how the students felt with the caps and gowns on!

On the flip side, my brother in law Jae was on Cape Cod yesterday in the town of Falmouth. With southwest winds, this acts as a sea breeze down there, keeping temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than up in the Boston area. With temperature in the upper 70’s with a pleasant breeze, the weather could not of been more ideal!

Some friends and family were asking me what happened on Saturday? Why the large disparity in temperatures across the region? It was a complex situation, that fooled many professionals including myself! I did not have a good feeling of such hot temperatures predicted when I walked out my house to go to work early Saturday morning. A warm front was passing through the region at the time, and was forecast called for it to move beyond our area with no complications. However, when I observed the wet ground, light showers and drizzle falling early in the morning, I said to myself, I wonder if something is delaying the progress of the front, and 90’s may not be realized today?

According to assistant Chief Weather Observer Matt Douglas of the Blue Hills Weather Observatory in Milton, Ma., a small low pressure developed along the warm front, a mesoscale low pressure if you will. This kept low level winds blowing in from the northeast longer than anticipated, helping to keep low clouds and fog longer along the coast much longer than anticipated. While some folks were frustrated with the cooler cloudier than expected weather conditions, others were rejoicing! It’s New England…surprises happens now and again!

While Saturday was a bust, the heat poured into the region on Sunday! I have still not confirmed whether Logan Airport actually reached 90 degrees yesterday. Some reports say yes, others no. Regardless, it was quite the victory for the Atlantic Ocean this past weekend. Predicted record high temperatures, even all time May record high temperatures were thwarted away by the still cold Atlantic Ocean. Many forecasters were anticipating temperatures in the mid to in some cases upper 90’s on both days. How ironic it would be if Logan didn’t even reach 90 degrees at all? Not only were no record high temperatures were broken, but it means we will not reach our average of one 90 degree day during May. I currently do not see any more chances for 90 degrees the rest of the month.

Had a similar air mass and upper air pattern occurred a month later in June, we most likely would of achieved these numbers. By that time, ocean temperatures will have a full month more of warming. I can’t emphasize enough the comparison of May to November. Think of today as November 23rd, and me making a winter forecast. It’s difficult for us here in New England to experience severe winter weather in November, mainly due to the ocean temperatures that are still too warm coming off of the summer. Same can be said in May, when it’s difficult to experience sustained summer heat, due to lingering cold ocean temperatures from the recent winter. It can happen respectively in each month, but it most cases it’s brief, without much staying power. Today is a classic example, with seasonably cool temperatures quickly regaining control across the region.

So what do I see for our weather this upcoming summer? Remember, this is my first preliminary outlook. Many things can change from now until the the official summer solstice which arrives on June 21st this year. Therefore, I have instituted a final call update to my forecast around the summer solstice. Last year I had to increase my 90 degree days, when I noticed computer models persisting the hot weather through August.

I have been mentioning this many times over the last 10 years. In fact, 9 out of the last 12 summer have been hotter than normal in Boston! Who knows exactly what is even normal these days? What I have been saying, and the same goes for this summer, is that I do not see any evidence not to forecast another hotter than normal summer this year in Boston, and for much of New England for that matter. Several certain factors bring me to this conclusion which include: 1. A third year La Nina 2. Continued warmer than normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures 3. A stronger than normal Bermuda High pressure area 4. Dry soil levels leading up to the summer solstice 5. A persistent southeast ridge ( part of the Bermuda High) building along the east coast. This is consistent with strong La Nina’s bringing cooler than normal weather patterns to the Pacific Northwest and Alaska regions, and hotter patterns to eastern United States, including New England.

These factors alone would warrant a warmer than normal summer across our region. Add to this the increasing evidence of a warming climate due to climate change, and we’re hovering on the possibility of all time record warm summer. You may say, Pete, I thought you said last summer was the warmest summer on record? Indeed it was! It was the warmest summer on record, according to departures and averages. This was due from a combination of 24 days of reaching 90 degrees over the course of the summer. In addition, we observed many warmer than normal night time low temperatures, along with near record levels of humidity!

To think some people actually though last summer was cold! With all things being relative, these people do have a point! Last summer ended up being a hot and very wet summer with extreme fluctuations! If you recall, all major holiday’s featured very cold weather, with washout conditions. Beginning with Memorial Day weekend, 4th of July and then Labor Day featured at least some heavy rainfall. By far Memorial Day and the 4th featured atrocious weather conditions, with record cold temperatures. Sandwiched in between the torrential downpours were temperatures that soared into the 90’s! We even reached a sweltering 100 degrees on the last day of June last year! You may of forgotten, but last June was Boston’s hottest June’s on record, when we reached 90 degrees or higher a whopping 9 times! This is 60% of our 90 degree days for an entire season even before summer arrived!

With 90 degrees being the threshold on how hot we rate our summers, it’s going to be interesting how many times we reach this temperature this year. Boston averages 14 days of 90 degree temperatures in any given summer. We have surpassed this number with ease past several summers. Our all time greatest number of 90 degree days was set way back in the summer of 1983, when Boston reached 90 a whopping 30 times! With each passing summer, it appears we are surpassing 14 days with increasing ease. It would not surprise me if they increased the 30 year climatology average from 14 to some higher number such as 18 in the near future.

Before I declare a record number of 90 degree days coming this year for Boston, there is one very peculiar statistic which gives me pause. In the history of record keeping which goes back to 1872 here in Boston, there has not been one back to back season with 20+ ninety degree days in recorded history! Could Logan not hitting 90 degrees this May be tipping us off that it may not be as hot as we think it’s going to be this summer? Or could this be the year when we finally break this unusual statistic?

Along with the factors I presented earlier, I look for other signs in helping me determine our summer patterns. While summer patterns can present themselves in May, they typically do not become established until around the summer solstice. I also look for early signs from Mother Nature for hot weather around Memorial Day. If hot weather shows up around Memorial Day, it most likely will show up several more times in the upcoming summer. Nothing scientific about this, just a trend that seems to verify more often than not. I also look for developing hot air masses, or areas of persistent high pressure (warm & dry) in our long wave pattern. I like to look at them as ‘bubbles’ of heat, and ‘pockets’ of cool air. For this summer, it appears the heat bubble will be centered out west in the Rocky Mountain region. I’m also expecting another ridge of high pressure to be building along the east coast extending up into New England. These two areas of high pressure may merge as the summer evolves, creating one large area of above normal temperatures across most of the country. The pacific northwest may start off cool, but become hot as we move deeper into summer.

Taking all this into consideration, I’m going to go a bit conservative for now and call for Logan Airport reaching or eclipsing 90 degrees between 15 and 19 days this summer. Though admittedly the potential is there for between 20 and 30 days. This is still a hotter than normal summer, just not quite as hot as last summer. Keep in mind, this is a preliminary forecast, I may need to increase this number at my summer solstice final update. It’s very unlikely I decrease this number. I would say there’s about a 50/50 chance this forecast remains unchanged in my final update.

Last summer was exceedingly wet. Will we have our second wetter than normal summer in a row? This is always a wild card, as during summer months we typically depend on thunderstorms and cold fronts for our precipitation. Though last year we experienced two summer nor’easters, one on Memorial Day and a very, very rare one on 4th of July weekend.   Computer models are indicating another unsettled Memorial Day weekend this year. This is not set in stone, and very easily could change, but it does have a striking resemblance to last year’s weather patterns.

Despite the dry patterns the last two months, I’m expecting another wetter than normal summer around here. For those who enjoy their lawns remaining green during hot weather months, this is good news. For those who made plans for outdoor events and spending time at the beach, not so good. I will say this, the signal grows stronger the deeper into the summer we go. Right now, August is a long way off, but computer models are showing a wet signal over the northeast, including here in New England. This could mean we are at increased risk of tropical storms if not a hurricane this summer. I know I mention this seemingly every year.

However, with a third year La Nina, warmer than normal ocean temperatures and favorable upper level winds, New England may once again be at risk for a land falling tropical cyclone later this summer or early fall. La Nina often means increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. This is due to reduced wind shear, which allows hurricanes to develop. The last hurricane to make landfall here in New England was Hurricane Bob back in 1991. We are overdue for a land falling hurricane here in New England. I would say there’s a 75% chance of a tropical cyclone affecting New England later this summer and fall.

In the end, this summer may have similarities to last summer but differ in timing and intensity. At this early juncture, I’m expecting it to be hotter and wetter than normal. To what degree and intensity may still need to be ironed out on my final update around the summer solstice. Stay tuned!

Now for our first beach and boating forecast for summer 2022! If you didn’t make it to the beach yesterday, you may have to wait a few days. Since the official beach season doesn’t begin until Memorial Day weekend, consider anything we get beforehand a bonus! Expect onshore winds and cooler temperatures for part of this week. This will make for choppy seas off east coastal regions, but not so bad in waters south of Cape Cod. More onshore winds early this weekend may bring choppy seas to the entire New England coastline. This is typical, as it’s still a bit early to expect calm seas here in late May. A warmer & drier trend to start June may kick off the season with a bang!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds the rest of today. Onshore breezes will make it feel quite refreshing compared to yesterday. However, an evening walk may require a light jacket. Expect temperatures to be in the mid to upper 60’s.

Watch for clear and cool weather tonight, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

I’m expecting two splendid May days for both Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Look for plenty of sunshine, and slightly below seasonable levels, with highs mainly in the 60’s both days, and lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Both days will feature very comfortable dew point temperatures.

A warm front will be approaching our region on Thursday. This seems to be a recurring pattern here in May. Watch for more clouds on Thursday, along with the chance of some showers. I’m not anticipating any washouts, but you may need the umbrella at some point in the day. Temperatures will begin to warm up, with highs in the lower 70’s.

Expect improving weather on Friday, with more sun and warmer temperatures. Highs should reach the 70’s along the coast, and low 80’s inland. Beach day?

As is the case more years than not, the Memorial Holiday weekend is iffy at this time. The good news is I do not see a consolidated nor’easter type storm like last year. The bad news is I also don’t see a sunny warm weekend. Maybe something in between? A slow moving cold front will be traversing New England. In addition, a slow upper level storm system will be spinning to our south. The combination between these two systems may bring unsettled weather to parts of our region later Saturday, and for most of Sunday and Monday. Does this mean a Memorial weekend washout? At this time, I’m not anticipating this scenario.

However, there may be times of passing showers through this period. The worst weather actually looks like it may be across northern New England, especially later Saturday and into Sunday, when rainfall may be more widespread and steady for a time. The best weather actually looks to be on Cape Cod, with the exception of Sunday. Timing and weather conditions may change significantly over the course of the week. Please check back with local forecasts with the latest on the upcoming Memorial weekend holiday. Nothing is easy!

Well, that’s about it for now, friends! My next blog will be posted two weeks from today, as I’m planning on taking a break for the Memorial Day holiday, unless I see a storm or unusual event that warrants an update. When I do post next, I will be updating the summer forecast with any new information I receive. I will also be reviewing the month of May, and have my June preview. In the meantime, if you enjoyed last summer, here’s to one good year that deserves another!

~Happy Birthday this week to my Aunt Helen & sister in law Cathryn!~

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Suddenly…It’s Summer! 5/16/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! The weather was was more fitting to mid June rather than mid May! Saturday was a great day to enjoy outdoor activities, with plenty of sunshine, and temperatures which warmed up to the mid to upper 80’s across the region. In fact, Boston tied a record high temperature for the date of 86 degrees! Sunday featured a bit more cloudiness, but was still a very warm day for this time of year, with highs in the upper 70’s to near 80. This is a good 10 to 15 degrees above average. There were a few pop up showers and thunderstorms, but only garden variety, and were few and far between.  Whether your activities included working in the garden, taking a hike, or spending time near the ocean, many people enjoyed time outdoors!

It seems to happen every year. We go from wearing heavy coats one day, to instant summer the next! Wasn’t it just last week we were complaining about the cold winds? My sister Pam mentioned that she had frost in southeast New Hampshire just last week! It can still happen this time of year.

Before last weekend, leaf out was only about 50% completed. This was running about one week behind schedule. After temperatures soared into the 80’s on Saturday, we are now about 90% through. It went from looking like winter, to suddenly summer…seemingly overnight!

It’s true, spring is undoubtedly our shortest season around here. While there’s some truth to this statement, it’s also worth noting that so far this spring, the Boston area has actually experienced above normal temperatures! Both March & April both featured warmer than normal weather. The problems began arising the second half of April. Just when you think warmer weather should be a lock, it actually became colder! This cold stretch lasted right up until May 12th, when suddenly the pattern flipped. Let’s see how the second half of May shapes up, but it’s already gotten off to a much warmer start. When we average the three months consisting of spring together, it should turn out being a warmer than normal spring, with below average snow.

How much snow does Boston typically receive during  March, April and May? Well, Boston typically receives about 9″ in March, and about 2″ in April, and only a trace in May. This year, we only received 2″ in March, and no snowfall in April or May. Spring snow varies considerably. Some years we receive quite a bit, mostly concentrated in the first half of March. Back in 2018, Boston received 24″ of snow in March. Other years which featured heavy spring snows were 2013, 2001, 1997, 1996 and 1993. It happens, but typically once every five or six years or so.

For now, and through the end of September, we’re not talking snow. In fact, we are now entering the “snow free” zone, which officially extends from May 18th through October 3rd. During this period, it’s simply too warm to sustain wintry precipitation along the coastal plain. Back in May of 2002, there was actually some sleet and snow reported just north of Boston on May 17th. I even observed some sleet falling here in Boston that day! While snow is unheard of in September, once October arrives, anything can happen! Indeed, back on October 4th, 1987, a freak storm brought over a foot of damaging wet snow to the Berkshires of Massachusetts. Because trees still had their foliage, massive tree damage and power outages resulted. Tragically, two North Adams college students were electrocuted to death due to live power lines on the ground.

Like anything in life, there are exceptions! Way back in the year 1816, there was the infamous “Year Without a Summer” here in New England! Many people ask me if this really happened, and my answer to them is, yes! On April 5th, 1815, there was a massive volcanic eruption from Mount Tambora near Indonesia. This wasn’t just any regular eruption. This eruption was so intense, it altered global climates several years after. There was so much ash and aerosols thrown way up into the upper atmosphere, that earth experienced a period of global cooling.

Upper level jet stream winds brought particularly devastating effects here in New England. Frosts and snows continued to fall during summer of 1816, resulting in famine as crops failed and people fled the region. Snow flurries and frosts were reported as far south as the Boston area over the course of the summer. Chronicles mentioned periods of warm weather would be followed by blasts of cold air and frost destroying crops throughout the entire summer.

On a somewhat lesser scale, a similar scenario occurred as recent as 1992. On June 15th, the massive eruption of Mt. Pinatubo resulted in a similar global cooling for several years. Summer 1992 here in New England was extremely strange! There were only two 90 degrees days that entire summer, and they occurred on Friday and Saturday of the Memorial Day weekend. I will never forget the abrupt shift to the weather patterns that Sunday before Memorial Day. Overnight Saturday, howling winds shifted to the northeast, sending temperatures plummeting into the 40’s across the region. Summer never recovered from that point forward, with many people turning the heat on over the 4th of July holiday that year. Many other cold and windy days made it impossible to spend time at the beach that summer!

Currently, I do not foresee any scenario of this sort this summer in New England! Though we never know for sure, as Mother Nature always has the final say! Early indications are showing a summer similar to last summer. If you have forgotten, last summer was very hot & wet! I hope the timing is different this summer! Every major holiday last summer featured soaking rains and cold temperatures. This was followed by searing heat and high levels of humidity. Awful!

We are and have been dry the past several weeks around here. In fact, the national drought monitor index has placed eastern Massachusetts in a abnormally dry category, one step below a low level drought. I recall similar pattern last May, with unusual dry weather. This was followed by an all time record hot June, which was then followed by the flooding rains, which wiped out 4th of July festivities.

I’m not entirely sure we see an exact same scenario. However, long range computer models do show a wet signal in New England this summer. I’m thinking similar to last summer, but most likely not as extreme. It looks hot, but most likely we will not have as many 90 degree days as last summer. However, this is subject to change. Remember last summer I began with a modest number of 90 degree days, only to significantly increase them on my final update at the summer solstice, which verified quite well!

Furthermore, we are now squarely in a third year La Nina, which actually appears to be strengthening. There have only been a few three year La Nina’s in recorded history. La Nina’s tend to bring cooler weather to Pacific Northwest region, and hotter weather to southeast part of the U.S. which can include New England at times. They also tend to bring a higher than normal number of tropical cyclones and hurricanes to the Atlantic basin. I will have my numbers when I post my summer forecast one week from today!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Remaining quite dry, with mainly warm temperatures.

Expect sunny & warm weather for the balance of your Monday afternoon. Keep an eye on the sky if you plan on taking a late afternoon or evening walk. A cold front will be approaching the region later today. Most of the heavy duty storms will track west of eastern Massachusetts. However, as the front approaches, I can’t rule out a late afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm in a few communities even close to Boston and the North Shore. Some of these storms could be strong, especially north & west of Rt 128. High temperatures will be close to 80 degrees.

After a few evening showers, watch for clearing and cooler weather to move in later on. As winds shift to northwest, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region. Lows should be mainly in the 50’s by dawn across the region, perhaps some 40’s across some far interior locations.

There will be a marked shift back to typical springtime weather conditions for the period of Tuesday through Thursday. While temperatures will still be mild, they will be more seasonable for this time of the year, which means mainly upper 60’s and very low 70’s. You will need a light jacket at night, with lows falling back into the 40’s and low 50’s. With the cooler air, there will be some considerable cloudiness around. There will be periods of sun, but don’t expect completely sunny skies especially tomorrow and Wednesday.

An approaching warm front will mean more cloudiness on Friday. Temperatures should warm up in to the 70’s that day. At this point, I do not see any widespread rain. However, with a warm front moving through, I can’t rule out some brief passing showers or drizzle. Speaking of drizzle, after a midweek break down on the Cape, I’m expecting more patchy areas of fog and drizzle to redevelop as the warmer more humid air begins to arrive from the south later this week.

I’m expecting the first 90 degree temperature of the season in Boston this Saturday. Boston averages one 90 degree day during a typical May, and this could be it. In fact, if we see enough sunshine, temperatures may reach 92 degrees or even slightly higher? If you have the day off, it may be a good day to head to the beach or lake for the first time this year? Keep in mind, it’s still May, and ocean temperatures are still only in the upper 40’s low 50’s around Boston points north!

Another cold front will be approaching New England on Sunday. If there are any delays, Sunday could feature another very warm to hot day again, with another day close to 90 degrees. However, there’s an even chance the front moves through earlier in the day, leading to cooler weather for Sunday. i would not count on this day for beach weather. Timing on when the cold front moves through may also determine whether we see any showers or thunderstorms. Later in the day increases the chance of a storm, while early in the morning brings less of a chance. Either way, computer models are showing a band of showers moving through the region at some point on Sunday. As I mentioned, timing is too difficult to pinpoint from now.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my first summer outlook of the season. As I have done in recent years, my final forecast will be posted near the summer solstice in June. I do this in case there are any changes to the pattern, as there often is during this time period. Next week, I will also begin my beach and boating forecasts which will continue through the summer months, most likely through early September! In the meantime, most people are not a fan of sudden surprises…unless it has something to do with summer arriving! Enjoy!

Be safe & thanks for reading!

Pete

Here Comes The Flip! 5/9/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Mother’s Day weekend! Unfortunately, the weather did not fully cooperate! Gale force winds from a stalled ocean storm battered the New England coast throughout out the entire weekend. Saturday featured mainly cloudy skies, along with windy conditions. Temperatures struggled to reach the low 50’s. Though Mother’s Day was a bit brighter, howling winds along the coast made for unpleasant conditions to enjoy outdoor activities. That’s unless you were dressed for winter like weather! While Saturday was cool, Sunday felt downright cold, with high temperatures barely reaching 50 along the coast. Add the 35 to 45 mph wind gusts, and we literally had wind chills in 30’s yesterday! We essentially experienced a dry nor’easter this past weekend. As the saying goes, “it could of been a lot worse!”

In last weeks post I mentioned that we can still experience chilly weather sometimes in May. Leftover cold pools of air can sometimes meander over New England for days on end, making life miserable for those who enjoy warm temperatures and sunshine. Yet, as I mentioned in my post, where not quite there to summer just yet! May is still a true transition month from Winter to Summer. While it’s the last of the spring transition months, it can still pack a surprisingly cold punch!

At some point, we all make the same mistake of trying to rush the seasons to change. I’m at fault nearly every November, trying to rush winter into our region. Yes, it can get wintry at times in November, but it’s typically a fairly mild month up until Thanksgiving. Similar to May, it’s still too early to expect sustainable warm weather. Mother Nature still has some leftover business with wrapping up winter before she can move onto summer! Typically, it’s not until around Memorial Day before sustainable heat finally arrives. Even then, we can still experience unsettled weather patterns into June, with cool rainy weather. We really have to wait until the summer solstice arrives on June 20th for dependable summer weather.

As I mentioned earlier, this past weekends weather could of been quite a bit worse. Many friends and family members were asking me why has it been so cold & windy? Seasonal change from winter to spring has been unusually windy this year. Persistent cold in eastern Canada has battled warm air trying to penetrate from the the south. The result was a strong pressure gradient between the two air masses. The difference in temperature also allowed for intense spring storms to develop and pass close be New England. As luck would have it, many of these storms tracked too far to our west, or too far to our east, with minimal impact other than a lot of wind!

This trend continued with this weekends storm. I have been keeping an eye on this storm for about a week now. As I told many friends and family members, had this storm been closer to the New England coast, we most likely would of experienced a severe late season nor’easter with two to three days of strong, damaging winds along the coast, along with coastal flooding. In addition, temperatures were plenty cold enough aloft to support heavy wet snow in higher terrain locations, as close as the Worcester hills! It would not of shocked me if there was even some snow closer to the coast! All in all, it was a winter type set up, with unusually strong blocking high pressure firmly anchored to our north across southeast Quebec, and intense low pressure spinning out in the Atlantic Ocean to our south. Had these forces come closer together, a vary dangerous storm would of been the outcome. Television meteorologists do not want to mention this outcome for concern of spreading unnecessary fear to viewers.

Even with the storm far removed from New England, we still felt the effects from it due to the intense pressure gradient between high pressure to our north, and low pressure to our south. They call it the old squeeze play, and was very unusual to see a set up like this so late into the season! For those who are done with winter, I’m glad this storm did not come any closer to our coast than what it already did!

Back on this date in 1977, a similar storm actually did come closer, and gave southern New England a very late season blast that nobody will ever forget! It was a wild spring storm, with heavy wet snow falling close to the coast! Heaviest accumulations fell across interior southern New England, with some spots in the Worcester hills receiving 20″ of heavy wet snow! Even Logan Airport received a half inch of snow. This may not seem like a lot, but it is considering the date, and that the observation site is right on the ocean.

This was only part of the story, as snowfall amounts increased dramatically across inland sections of the city, with even more falling in the suburbs of Boston. I’m not 100% sure the measurement here in West Roxbury, but I do remember my neighbor knocking off the snow from the snow laden trees with a broom! I believe it was around 3 or 4″ here, but up to 8″ fell in nearby Newton. With the weight of the wet snow, and trees fully bloomed, widespread power outages occurred with limbs and trees toppling onto power lines. Luckily history dd not repeat itself, this year!

With such cold nights in recent weeks, leaf out has been delayed across the region. Here in the city where it’s warmer, about 60% of trees have bloomed their leaves. However, there’s still a ways to go in some spots!  Outside of the city, north and west of Rt 128, it may not be until May 22nd before leaves are fully bloomed. Further out beyond I495, it may not be until around Memorial Day for full leaf out.

With all that being said, there is a significant warm up on the way! If the trees have been struggling to bloom in your neighborhood this spring, this warm spell will really accelerate the process! As we often see this time of year, temperatures can go from feeling like winter, straight into summertime seemingly overnight! It’s about this time of year when winter suddenly “flips” to summer! I’m not sure if it’s going to remain summery for the remainder of May, but at least it’s a step in the right direction!

Summertime heat is building across the middle of the country. Meanwhile, our pesky ocean storm is stalled off the mid Atlantic coast, creating cooler onshore winds fro areas from southern New England coastline, down through the mid Atlantic region. However, this pattern is going to begin breaking down this week. As the deep upper level low pressure breaks down and erodes, the ridge of high pressure will begin taking over, and finally begin building into New England! It only takes a wind shift to begin the process. As high pressure begins building south of New England, winds will begin shifting from northeast to southwest later this week. This will begin transporting the long awaited warmer air into New England later this week into the upcoming weekend! Some coastal areas may still struggle to reach maximum heating due to local sea breezes, but many of us may be reaching for the air condition button come this weekend!

Now time for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Less wind, warmer temperatures!

Expect gusty winds to continue for the rest of today. Temperatures will certainly be warmer than yesterday, but those darn winds will continue to make it feel much cooler than what it actually is. While temperatures may be close to 60, it will feel like the 50 when the wind blows. You will need a jacket if you plan on an evening walk.

Look for clear skies and cool to chilly temperatures tonight. Winds will relax, and temperatures will fall into the 30’s across rural areas, to 40’s in urban locations. This is why communities north and west of Rt 128 still need to hold off from planting tender flowers and vegetation in the garden.

Tuesday should feature warmer weather to begin slowly encroaching towards New England. However, the stalled storm offshore will continue to hold its grip, spinning onshore winds along the coast, along with cooler temperatures. In other words, you still may need a jacket if you live within 20 miles of the coast. Tuesday looks fairly similar to today if you would like some perspective.

While there’s a chance of a few light showers or patchy drizzle on Wednesday, no washout is anticipated. If we see any sunny breaks, temperatures may respond up into the 60’s, except 50’s along the coast with a sea breeze. Winds should begin to relax in earnest on Wednesday, though the sea breeze could still be a bit brisk within 10 miles of the coast.

Warmer temperatures along with an increase of humidity will be arriving into New England Thursday through the upcoming weekend. This will be our first bout with humidity of the early season, but undoubtedly, not our last! Temperatures will warm up into the 70’s and possibly even low to mid 80’s across much of interior New England later this week into the weekend. Dew point temperatures will also be rising into the 60’s, which will make it feel quite muggy.

Coastal communities may still be dealing with afternoon sea breezes. However, instead of chilly readings of 40’s and 50’s, it should be mainly 60’s and low 70’s.

With a moist flow off the Atlantic, there may be some hit and miss showers, or pop up afternoon showers across the region from Friday through the weekend. No washout is anticipated, but be on the guard in case you get caught in a downpour. Otherwise, I’m expecting periods of sunshine, and a much more summery feel to the air as we begin to transition to summer.

In addition, with higher humidity levels, we begin moving into fog season across the south coast and Cape Cod. There may be patchy fog and low clouds throughout the period in these locations. This is due to warmer moist air, flowing over the the still relatively cool ocean temperatures. Fog can occur anytime down the Cape, but is most pronounced in late May, through June and early July until ocean temperatures begin to warm up.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing in more detail my thoughts on our upcoming summer patterns. My official summer forecast will be written and posted just two weeks from today! I will also have your weekly activity forecast. In the meantime, here comes the flip to summer…we should be good to go until we flip to winter next November! Enjoy!

~Happy Birthday to my brother John!~ (May 11th)

Thanks for reading!

Pete

You Don’t Say…It’s May! 5/2/22

Hello! Happy May, to all! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was quite a pleasant weekend around the region, weather wise. Saturday featured a mix of sun and clouds with less wind. Temperatures were not all that warm, but with less wind, it felt a lot better out there! Sunday was the day we’ve been waiting for all spring! It was a great way to kick off the month of May, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, deep blue skies, and light winds. Temperatures responded with many communities warming up to near 70 degrees, five miles away from the ocean. If you were at the beaches, it was 10 degrees cooler, but still a beautiful day! Overall, it was a great weekend to spend outdoors walking, hiking, or doing some early season gardening work!

Have many people mentioned to you how they can’t believe that it’s May already? Yes, time always seems to be flying, and here we are in May! May is always such a busy month! With birthday celebrations, weddings, graduations, opening up cottages and high school prom nights. In many ways, May reminds me of November for being the exact opposite. November is the month before winter begins. In November, people are closing down cottages, preparing for the long winter. November also features waning foliage, and massive leaf drop. I don’t know of too many graduations or proms in November, either! Interesting time of year we are in!

Now that May has arrived, you may think we’re done with chilly, damp weather. After yesterday’s glorious weather, it can’t possibly get cold again, right? Well, not quite! May is a true transition month to summer. We’re getting closer, but not quite there just yet! Similar as to November, when we can still experience a few leftover mild days, we can still have some chilly or even cold days in May. Hard to believe after the weather we experienced yesterday!

Over many years of observations, I have noticed that May can feature several different outcomes. This can swing wildly from one year to the next. Out of ten May’s, five end up being cooler than normal, three end up warmer than normal, and two end up around average. So yes, if you think May is often cooler than what is envisioned, you’re correct! When May is warmer than normal, it can be a glorious month, much like summer! Some years, you can even start heading to the beach! However, as we know, May can also feature endless cool rainy days, with onshore winds, and drizzle just to make it feel more miserable! Today is a perfect example on how changeable May can be!

Some may say, why are we still using the word “cold” during May? This is all relative to what constitutes cold to many people. Obviously, it’s not cold like winter, but May can feature cold, damp temperatures in the 40’s, with onshore winds. It’s all in the wind direction. An offshore wind easily yields temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s. Though slowly warming, ocean temperatures are still in the upper 40’s early in May, warming to the upper 50’s by months end. Any onshore component will make it feel cold.

May can still be a tricky month for gardeners. While frost is unlikely along the coastal plain and urban centers, it still poses a threat inland and rural areas. Temperatures can still fall to frosty levels on clear, calm nights when the warm air from the day radiates back up into space. This is why many wait until Memorial Day to start their gardens in earnest. Though if you live in the cities inside of I95 towards the coast, I would give it the all clear signal to begin gardening, with the exception of planting tomatoes. All regions should wait until Memorial Day to plant the tomatoes, just in case of any late season cold snaps. Tomatoes are sensitive to cold weather.

For the most part, we are finished with mentioning snow. However, there have been years when it has snowed in the past. Just two years ago many saw snow squalls whiten the ground on May 9th! Also on that date, a historic Mother’s Day snowstorm struck southern New England, bringing heavy wet snow right to the coast! Most areas received between 3 and 7″ of snow, but higher elevations across Worcester County actually received close to 20″ with massive tree damage and power outages very close to Boston!

While rare at along the coastal plain, snow does occur in high terrain locations in May here in New England. Just 5 years ago Mt Washington and surrounding mountains received 33″ of wet snow on May 16th!

With all that being said, May is mostly a positive month, and is the prelude to summer!  The month features the full “Flower” moon which occurs on the evening of May 15th, but is not officially full until early morning hours of the 16th. Average high temperatures increase from the low 60’s at the beginning of the month to low 70’s by months end. Daylight continues to increase, with 8:00 PM sunsets arriving on May 16th, and will continue until August 4th. Along with the warmer temperatures, full leaf out arrives in Boston by May 10th. With the recent chilly nights, this date may be delayed by about 5 days this year. As of May 1st, mowing season has arrived in Boston, and will continue until October 31st. Some mow earlier and later, but this is the average date for most of us. Last but not least, they don’t call the full “Flower” moon for no reason! Those April showers have indeed brought the May flowers! May is the month which features the most blooms for flowers than any other month! From Tulips, Azaleas, to Lilacs, the Boston area is bursting with colorful flowers everywhere you look!

How’s the weather looking this May? Well, despite the warm start to the month, I’m afraid to say the first couple weeks looks to feature generally below average temperatures. High latitude blocking across Greenland looks to continue for at least the first two weeks of May. This will help to persist a trough (cool & unsettled) across New England, with more of those pesky upper level low pressure systems. Longer range computer model data is hinting at a shift to warmer temperatures heading into the second half of May. This may bode well for a warm Memorial Day weekend? This is only speculation, and is still a long ways out. This may offset the cool first half, leading a rare near average month in the Boston area. It’s possible it tips slightly warmer, but if it does, it won’t be by too much. Being close to the warm and cold boundary, I am anticipating slightly wetter than normal rainfall in Boston this May. Believe it or not, we could use it before heading into summer…it’s been fairly dry past few months in Boston.

Speaking of dry, April turned out to be a warmer and drier than normal month here in Boston. While I said it was going to be warmer than normal, it was only 2 degrees above average. We also received about one inch less precipitation this April. Boston received no snow this April. While not unusual, we typically do see about 2″ of snow on average in any given April. We may go a few years with no snow, then receive a fairly substantial spring storm.

One aspect of April that seemed to of stood out, was the wind! A few friends commented on how windy it was in April. Yes, April can be a windy month, and this year was no exception! This wind, combined with the extensive cloud cover, made this April feel a lot colder than what it was. In general, April was warmer than normal for the first 3 weeks of the month. However, the last week featured much colder than normal weather, which brought the averages down quite a bit.

Late season winter storms intensifying as they pass our latitude tend to slow down and stall in the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, spring warmth is trying to surge north into New England. The pressure differences between these two air masses can lead to cold, blustery northwest gales from Canada, keeping us wearing winter coats much longer than people who live from southwest Connecticut points south and west.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. Unsettled.

Expect cloudy and damp weather for the rest of this afternoon. Off and on showers will be arriving if they haven’t done so already. It will be cooler than yesterday, and overall, not a great evening to out for a walk or run. With onshore winds temperatures will be hard pressed to get out of the 50’s.

Expect periods of showers through most of the night. It will be cool & damp, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

Tuesday may start out with low clouds, fog & drizzle, but I’m expecting some improvement as the day moves along. If we see any sunshine, expect temperatures to respond up into the low 60’s.

Another low pressure system will be approaching southern New England Tuesday night. This means heavier clouds, with showers arriving by early Wednesday morning. While not a full washout, expect periods of rain and damp weather for Wednesday. It will be cool, with high temperatures back in the 50’s.

As the low pressure moves away, skies should partially clear Wednesday night, with low temperatures falling into the 30’s and 40’s. Warmest in urban areas.

Thursday is shaping up to be the pick of the week. Any early clouds should burn off, yielding to a good amount of sunshine, along with some afternoon clouds. With increased sunshine, temperatures will respond to the 60’s perhaps near 70 in some communities.

Yet another storm system will be approaching New England this weekend. The forecast confidence remains below average through this period. The storm may simply track too far to our south, and leave us with mainly dry weather, with cool onshore winds. This would be best case scenario. Mother’s Day would be dry, but on the cool side. However, there’s is an equal chance the storm system stalls to our south, and bands of rain move in from the ocean as the storm remains well south of us. This too does not look like a total washout, but more unsettled than the first scenario. Either way it looks to remain on the cool side!

Very latest indications show the storm making an approach towards New England Friday and Saturday with clouds and a shield of rain, especially towards the south coast of New England. Thereafter, it appears as if the storm gets suppressed from high pressure in eastern Canada. This scenario would bring clearing skies on Mother’s Day, but with quite a chill to the air, with highs remaining in the 50’s. Please tune into your local forecast with the latest updates for this weekends weather.

Well, that’s about it for today, friends! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing in more detail my thoughts for the upcoming summer patterns. My official summer forecast will be posted just three weeks from today! I will also have a weather history segment, and your weekly forecast. In the meantime, do not be dismayed…we’re now in the month of May!

~Wishing all of the great mom’s out there, including my mom up in heaven, a Happy Mother’s Day!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Annual Spring Cool down…4/25/22

Hello! Happy new week! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! My family celebrated Greek Orthodox Easter, yesterday! It was a wonderful celebration, though the weather was more fitting for Thanksgiving, than Easter! Saturday was pleasant, with high temperatures in the 60’s. A cold front passed through the region Saturday night, setting us up for a much cooler Sunday! There was some early morning sun, but it turned cloudy for the balance of the day. High temperatures remained only in the 40’s along the coast for much of the day, but did sneak up into the lower 50’s about 20 miles inland from the coast. Overall, it definitely felt and looked more like late November, rather than late April.

It happens. Sometimes it evens snows on Easter Sunday! Believe it or not, there has been some pretty incredible late season snowstorms in the past on this spring holiday! Having colder temperatures at Easter time compared to Thanksgiving is also not shocking, and makes sense. Ocean temperatures are typically colder during Easter, than Thanksgiving time. This is due to latent heating and cooling. Ocean temperatures take longer to cool off in the fall than one would think. Vice versa they take longer to warm up in the spring. It takes a ton of solar energy from the sun to warm up the oceans during spring. Just looking at climatology, we are only beginning to warm up the oceans, which won’t reach their peak temperature until September! In the winter, the coldest ocean temperatures are observed in March. There’s actually a better chance for a wet snowstorm in April, than in November!

We are a bit over the halfway point of climatology spring. Climatology spring, or meteorological spring is the 3 month period which runs from March 1st, to May 31st. So far, we are having a warmer than normal spring, with slightly less precipitation. Most of New England, aside from the far northern mountains has received very little snowfall this spring. Despite this, spring continues to feel sluggish on its arrival. I was in downtown Boston last Wednesday, and it’s amazing how much further along spring is down there, compared to outlying areas. Trees were budding, grass was green and plush, and flowers were blooming all over the place! I’m sure the UHI, also known as Urban Heat Island effect plays a roll in creating a micro climate, where it’s a bit warmer in urban settings due to all the buildings and cement, allowing for spring to arrive in earnest quicker than areas away from this setting.

No doubt, the lawns are green and ready for the first mow nearly everywhere inside of Rt 128 now. Flowers are indeed blooming, however the leaves on the trees now seem to running either about on target for leaf out, or maybe even a few days behind. Yes, we’ve had some mild days, however, we’ve also had many cool days, and some especially chilly nights for this time of year. Temperatures dropping into the 30’s this time of year is not unheard of, but it does keep the spring blossoms in check. We really haven’t experienced a few of those really warm days into the 70’s we often see in April. When it comes to leaf out, I always give a range of between May 1st and May 10th around Boston. By the looks of it, we may have to wait until May 10th, or perhaps even a days later to see full leaf out around our area this year. Further north, you may need to wait until Memorial Day weekend to enjoy full leaf out.

Looking at some of the long range computer guidance this morning, it appears as if our annual spring cool down will be settling in this week! My goodness, it always seems to happen here in New England each spring! It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why this seems to happen on an annual basis, but I have my theories.

First, there is a transition period from winter to summer, some people may call it spring. The mechanisms that brought us a mainly milder than normal winter is now changing in the atmosphere. This included a lack of high latitude blocking , and a persistent ridge of high pressure (mild & dry) along the east coast. Earlier on in March, the mechanism were still in place, this allowed lingering mild weather to warm up more quickly in March and early April due to seasonal averages warming up.  This may lead many to think that we have an early spring on the way.

Suddenly, around this time of year, the pattern abruptly shifts. The old winter pattern lifts out, leaving us vulnerable to an interim pattern before summer arrives. Unfortunately, this is about the time when the Polar Vortex collapses up in the arctic regions. This cold air, in modified form comes cascading down from Canada into the mid latitudes where we live. More times than not, this always seems to happen towards the end of April and start of May. There have been many nights when folks have winter coats on while watching the Red Sox play at Fenway Park…in May!

Late season high latitude blocking in Greenland helps to facilitate bringing the cold air down towards New England. This block also steers storms south of New England, which helps maintain an onshore flow. Sometimes, this pattern can persist for weeks through May and even into June! At that point, many folks begin to question whether summer is coming or not. Chilly east winds, drizzle, and endless cloudy days give good reason for these questions. While all this nonsense is happening here in New England, summer is building to our south and west. It’s not uncommon for temperatures to frequently warm to the 80’s not too far away from us in May, but remain the 50’s here in coastal New England.

Later in the spring, the latent heating concept kicks in. What this means is that the land heats up much quicker than the oceans. As the warm air rises across the land, cool dense air from the ocean rushes in to fill the void at the surface. This can take the form of local afternoon sea breezes. But can also be on a larger scale, when large pools of maritime air overtakes much of New England, keeping us much cooler than normal than areas to our south and west.

Some folks complain that it’s too cold around here in spring. In some sense, I tend to agree. It’s Mother Nature’s way of keeping us from getting too warm too quickly around here. We live in New England, not Georgia. New England is further north and east, than other parts of the country. There’s Canada just to our north, and the cold North Atlantic Ocean just to our east. Aside from a few odd years, it takes longer for true springtime weather patterns to become established around here, if they do at all! If you enjoy warmer climates with warm springs, my suggestion would be to move further south. Locations as close as New York City points south have a warmer spring climate than Boston.

On the positive side, colder than normal temperatures this time of year is mostly 40’s and 50’s, not teens and 20’s. So it’s going to feel more cool than cold next couple week. If we get an organized storm to track south of New England, there may be a cold, rainy day thrown in there as well. It’s not out of the question that higher terrain locations could still even see some wet snow flakes even into the first week of May!

Just when you’re ready to throw the towel in for summer, the pattern typically breaks down sometime around Memorial Day weekend. Sometimes it can persist right up until the summer solstice. The summer warmth that has been building to our south and west finally breaks through and overwhelms our region. This is where the saying “we go straight from winter to summer”  comes from! It’s not uncommon to have the heat on before Memorial Day, to blasting the AC shortly after!

Once summer becomes established here in New England, it’s typically glorious for 3 to 4 months. In recent years, a warming climate has given us an extra couple weeks of warm month, which may extend summertime weather even into the first half of October. Once a full autumn month, October has recently seen mild weather extend deeper than one would think. However, once past mid October, the weather typically changes, and just about anything can happen! Just a couple years ago Boston saw it’s largest October snowstorm on record the day before Halloween, leading to a rare White Halloween!

Well, it’s a long way off from Halloween! We have a long summer to go through yet! Many have been asking me what this summer may bring to us here in New England? Latest computer models are wavering a bit on the super hot summer they were showing earlier this month. Could this be just a head fake? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t rule out a cooler trend just yet for us this summer. Some computer models are also showing increasing wetness along the east coast too. This in theory would keep it cooler. I will be closely monitoring the latest tends over the next several weeks.

Remember, it’s all relative. Cooler than normal summer may mean lots of  80’s and some 90’s. Plenty warm enough for outdoor activities, including the beach! Last year Boston recorded a whopping 24 ninety degree days.  On average, Boston receives 14 days with 90 degree temperatures. I have mentioned it before, but Boston has never recorded two back to back summers with 20 ninety degree days in recorded history! Right now, I’m sticking with my very early call of between 14 and 19 ninety degrees days. This is still above average, but not as hot as last summer. My official summer forecast will be posted on May 23rd, already less than one month away!

Now for your latest outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Some unsettled weather, but no big rainstorms is anticipated.

Today may be the nicest day of the week. Expect filtered sun, through a deck of high cloudiness. No rain is anticipated, and it will be slightly milder than yesterday. High temperatures will reach the upper 50’s and along the coast, and mid 60’s inland. Warmest readings will be experienced 10 miles inland, away from the sea breeze.

Tonight will feature increasing clouds along with lows in the 40’s. Cloud cover will prevent any radiational cooling tonight, so temperatures will be more uniform across the region.

Expect cloudy weather for Tuesday. A wavy weather front will be the focal point of some showers developing across eastern Massachusetts. Some of these showers may be briefly heavy mainly during the afternoon. With the expected cloudy damp weather, temperatures will be hard pressed to get out of the 50’s.

A developing low pressure may persist rain showers along the coast well into Tuesday night. Overall it looks to be damp, especially the first half of the night.

A blocking pattern, means an upper low pressure will stall near or just off the New England coast Wednesday through Friday. What this means is any early morning sun will give way to building clouds, and a slight risk of scattered afternoon and evening showers. No washouts are anticipated, just nuisance activity. It will remain on the cool side, with highs mainly in the 50’s, and lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Right now, the weekend looks to feature some improving weather conditions. If the upper level low pressure tracks a bit further to our east, it may allow for more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures. I would say Sunday looks slightly better than Saturday at this point, but that’s subject to change this far out. If we get more sunshine, temperatures could respond back up into the 60’s, which would be nice!

Well, that’s all I have for today, friends! In next week’s blog, I will have my thoughts on what weather patterns to expect in May, and have my April review. I will also continue to have more information on my summer forecast. In the meantime, annual events can be fun…not when it means wearing coats in the spring!

Be safe everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Runner’s Delight! 4/18/22

Hello! Happy Patriots’ Day! Happy Marathon Monday! I hope everyone had a peaceful & blessed Easter Sunday! Greek Orthodox Easter will be celebrated this coming Sunday, on April 24th! Overall, it was a pleasant weekend around the region to get out and enjoy. No doubt, Saturday was the warmer of the two days, with high temperatures well up into the 60’s. A rather strong cold front brought a period of rain and a few embedded downpours on Saturday evening. Some communities even experienced a few rumbles of thunder! Skies quickly cleared later on at night, but there was a dramatic temperature drop! Many awoke on Easter morning thinking of a sunny, warm day ahead to spend time outdoors. Mother Nature had other plans, as temperatures remained mainly in the 40’s for much of the day, along with a gusty wind. Cold air aloft meant more of those billowy cumulus clouds building during the afternoon. There were many reports of brief showers across the region. In fact, some of these showers fell as graupel, enough to whiten the ground in some communities!

Aside from pure snow itself, graupel is one of my most interesting forms of precipitation! Unlike hail, graupel is a winter type of precipitation. When you see it, it’s almost like a combination of hail and snow. Graupel is a soft pellet of ice, that has been melted and refroze several times over, which falls to the ground like a snowflake, but has a soft bounce when it lands! When examined more closely, graupel has signatures of a snowflake, with ornate design, but in the form of a soft pellet. Graupel is common in winter storms, when warm air intrudes into the upper levels of the atmosphere, and partially melts a snowflake, then refreezes it. Unlike sleet, when a warm layer melts the snow to rain, then a thicker cold layer near the ground refreezes the rain drop to a pellet of ice called sleet.

Hail was explained in last weeks blog, and is a spring & summertime form of precipitation. Hail are chunks of ice suspended in the upper atmosphere by violent updrafts of wind, that freeze into layers of ice. When these chunks of ice become too heavy, they fall to the ground as hailstones.

After a two year pause due to the pandemic, Patriots’ Day is back! Not only do the Boston Red Sox annually play on this day, but we also have the Boston Marathon! Today is also called Marathon Monday in the Boston area. There was also a very exciting Celtic’s playoff basketball game played yesterday at the TD Garden! These events are true signs that spring has finally arrived in Boston, in all its glory!

Though not a national holiday, Patriots’ Day is a holiday celebrated in Massachusetts, Maine, and now several other states, and is a day filled with rich history and tradition around these parts.

So what is Patriots’ Day? This is a day which commemorates the battles of Lexington and Concord, fought near Boston back in 1775.

Have you ever been walking in the North End in Boston and walked by the statue of Paul Revere on his horse, and the Old North Church? This is what makes Boston famous! Paul Revere, an American silversmith and a patriot in the American Revolution was instrumental in helping the Patriots fight off the British in the American Revolution War.

Famous for his “midnight ride” from Boston to Lexington to inform Samuel Adams and John Hancock that the British were coming to arrest them. Revere, along with Robert Newman, who was the sexton at the Old North Church, set up an intelligence system to keep watch on the British military. “One if by land,  two if by sea,” was the signal used with a light beacon  in the steeple of the Old North Church to inform Revere which way the British were moving. When the beacon flashed twice, Revere knew the British were moving by way of water. Revere then made history with his ride out to Concord to inform the patriot troops of the British invasion!

Being held in mid April, the Boston Marathon has seen its share of wild weather extremes! Over the 125 years of holding this event, there has been wintry weather observed, and blistering hot summery weather too! Temperatures have been as cold as the 30’s, and as hot as the upper 90’s! There has also been sleet, wet snow and wind driven rains! Thankfully, today will feature neither of these extremes! I’m happy to report temperatures will feature near seasonal levels. According to Google, temperatures between 45 and 59 degrees is the optimum temperature range for marathon runners. This is exactly where temperatures are going to be today, though most likely on the lower end of this range…even better!

Similar to weather on Christmas Day, there has been many years with close calls, with major storms occurring just before, or just after the marathon. A perfect example, is this year itself! A couple days ago, it was looking as if a major spring storm, a nor’easter was going to hit New England tonight into tomorrow. Before jumping the gun too quickly, I waited, as I know patterns can change quickly this time of year. Well, as it turns out, a storm is indeed coming. However, a last second shift west by computer models is going to spare eastern New England any wintry precipitation with this event. It now appears as if the bulk of the wintry precipitation will be confined to the Green Mountains of Vermont, and the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York state. The White Mountains of New Hampshire may also see snow from this storm, but all other areas withing 150 miles of the coast are going to see a wind driven rain from this storm.

I’m not too concerned about heavy tree damage in these regions, as leaf out has not fully arrived. It’s just going to be a late season snowfall, with some tree and power line damage, but nothing too severe in my opinion. The storm is also going to be a fast mover, cutting through eastern New England overnight, and be north of our latitude by late morning on Tuesday. This means the heaviest precipitation will fall between 1 am and 8 am, and be completely done by 10 am. We will even see skies clear by late morning, and enjoy a nice afternoon tomorrow!

While snowfall will not be occurring in our immediate area this time around, it reminds us that snow is still possible during April in much of New England. In higher terrain of northern and western New England, snow is common. In fact, there have been major storms in years past during April, dumping feet of snow up in that region! It’s still not out of the question to receive accumulating snow during May in higher terrain locations in northern New England. Back in 2017, Mt Washington received 33″ of snow on Mother’s Day!

Even in coastal areas, snow can still occur in April. The Boston area receives close to 2″ of of snow on average each April. Though we have not received any snow so far this April, we did receive snow last couple years. Occasionally, we even see a major snowstorm, especially during the first 10 days of the month. This occurred in April of 2016, 2003, and a massive blizzard in 1997. Snow in May is quite rare, but once again, has been observed multiple times over the years. Many remember the Mother’s Day snowstorm back on May 9th, 1977 when a historic late season storm brought up to 20″ of snow to Worcester County, and up to 8″ in Boston’s suburbs!

Now for the winter 2021-22 review. Overall, I would say my winter forecast worked out quite well! I must admit, it didn’t look good for me around Christmas time, with nearly 0″ of snow accumulation. My initial forecast called for between 50 and 60″ of snow! I was going to make some changes at the solstice update, but decided to just stick to my original thoughts back in November (with the help of my sister, Pam)! My original forecast called for between 50 and 60″ of snow total snow accumulation at Logan Airport. Indeed, winter finally arrived in January and February, when 54″ fell at the airport, highlighted by the coastal blizzard on January 29th. This is slightly above the 30 year climatology average of 49″ for Boston.

While I was pleased the snow criteria was met for the observation site at Logan, the same can not be said for many other locations across New England. Hard to believe, but many major cities and towns across much of New England received below average snowfall this winter! It wasn’t just New England, many observation sites across the entire country received below average snow this past winter. Snow season began slow, and never really recovered thereafter. Ski resorts were the biggest bust, as well below average snowfall and overall mild temperatures meant a sub par season for ski areas. It wasn’t a complete disaster, but there just wasn’t enough snow at times, and ill timed thaws led to major meltdowns prior to holidays.

My forecast back in November called for a colder than average winter. This did not come to fruition. While January indeed averaged 2 degrees colder than normal, November, December, February and March were all above average. This led to Boston’s 4th warmer than average winter in a row, and 6 out of the last 7. With a warming climate, our winters have been compressed into a 4 to 6 week period these days. It would take a very unusually cold, blocked weather pattern to achieve a colder than normal winter in future years. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but I do not see it happening anytime soon.

As a weather enthusiast, I can’t complain about this winter here in Boston! Boston was one of a few cities across the entire country that featured above average snow for the winter! In a second year La Nina, we kind of stole one from the Heat Miser! We had a good amount of snow in the city, for sure. I was somewhat disappointed in the coastal blizzard back on January 29th. Talking about just missing the brunt of the storm by a few miles! A last second shift east, kept the most intense band of snow just east and southeast of my house. While those areas received between 24 and 30″ of snow, the best I could come up with after several measurements was 18.5″. This is still a blockbuster storm, but when areas just 5 miles away from you receive 2 ft, it was a bit of a downer! This was a true coastal blizzard, with communities within 5 miles of the Massachusetts coastline getting blasted with a ferocious snow band that remained stationary for 6 hours, dumping between 2 to 4″ per hour!

Other snowstorms at the start of January and a couple in February made up the bulk of the snow for this past winter. A small storm brought 2 more inches in March, but that was about it. Overall, I will give myself an overall average of a B grade for the seasonal winter forecast. I missed the target for northern New England, but was on point in my hometown of Boston.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week an 8 out of 10!

Expect a wonderful afternoon, weather wise around Boston. Sunny skies will give way to increasing high clouds the deeper we go into the afternoon. Temperatures will be cool, with highs only near 50 close to the coast, but mid to upper 50’s inland.

Watch for thickening clouds this evening. As mentioned above, a rapidly developing storm across the mid Atlantic region, will intensify, and begin to track north. Expect rain to expand across southern New England, and reach Boston around 2:00 am. Once the rain arrives, it will become heavy at times, with localized downpours. With the storm tracking west of Boston, southeast winds will increase and will blow between 40 and 50 mph along the coast for a time early Tuesday morning.

As mentioned earlier, locations above 2000 ft in elevation across the Berkshires of Massachusetts and Green Mountains of Vermont, can expect heavy wet snow for a time, with accumulations of between 3 and 8″. Further west, snowfall could reach up to 1 ft in higher terrain locations of the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains in New York state.

As the storm tracks north of out latitude, the dry slot will punch north into our region, with gusty southwesterly winds and partly sunny skies tomorrow afternoon. After a damp start, temperatures will warm up into the mid 50’s during the afternoon.

Skies should tend to clear out tomorrow night, with lows in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a dry day, though it will feature a brisk wind and rather cool temperatures. Highs may remain in the 50’s, but a brisk wind may make it feel cooler than that, With clear skies and light winds, Wednesday night is looking rather chilly! Temperatures may fall close to frost advisory levels across the suburbs of Boston, but remain above freezing in the city.

For the period Thursday through Sunday, I’m expecting mainly dry weather patterns, along with moderating temperatures. There may be some cloudiness on Thursday and into Friday, but more sunshine is expected for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will start out in the lower 60’s Thursday and Friday, then move to the mid to upper 60’s through this weekend. Greek Orthodox Easter coming up this Sunday is looking quite pleasant at this time, with mainly sunny skies, and highs in the mid to upper 60’s.

Well, that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will talk more in depth about our upcoming summer patterns. I will also have my new updated spring timetable forecast, and where we stand with green up and leaf out. After this week, spring blooms will be popping across the region! In the meantime, runner’s delight of today, does not mean sailor’s delight for tomorrow…that will arrive later in the week!

~Wishing all my Greek family & friends a peaceful & blessed holy week. Kalo Pascha!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Seasonable Is Reasonable! 4/11/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was yet another 50/50 weekend around here weather wise. Saturday began with some sunshine, however building clouds and showers quickly made for an unsettled afternoon. There were also reports of thunder and hail across the region. I observed pea sized hail at work in Hyde Park during mid afternoon! I saw video posted where hail briefly turned the ground white, in North Shore towns like Danvers! Sunday featured much better weather across the region for outdoor activities. However, there was a gusty wind, which made it feel chilly at times. Overall, it was a major improvement over Saturday.

Some friends asked what exactly is hail, and how can ice fall from the sky when temperatures were in the 50’s? Actually, hail can fall from clouds when temperatures are a lot warmer than that! To understand how this occurs, we have to examine temperatures aloft. Hail is a warm season form of precipitation,  not to be confused with sleet or ice pellets, which are a winter form of precipitation.

For one reason or another, New England is susceptible to seeing cold pockets of air aloft migrate through our region. These upper level cold pools can happen anytime of the year, but seemingly happens during springtime more than any other season. The reason could very well be tied to leftover pockets of cold air from winter, that meander down from Canada. These cold pockets of air frequently occur during April, but occasionally May too.

These upper level storm systems are tricky, and can result in turbulent weather, with heavy snow showers in higher terrain, and thunderstorms and hail in lower elevations. There was even a report from Peter of Northeastern Mass Weather Alerts of a water spout off of Gloucester which may of tracked onto land. If this indeed happen, it could be classified as a weak F0 tornado.

Last week, my forecast called for scattered showers across the region on Saturday. What happened was the upper level cold pocket of air amplified during the week, and dug deeper across the eastern part of the country, resulting in more inclement weather than planned. Sometimes these upper level troughs can lead to storm development. And in fact, folks across  the high country of the Piedmont (Carolina region) did indeed receive accumulating snow this past weekend! We were fortunate this storm tracked more easterly, than up the coast towards New England. To receive spring snow, it’s all about timing. Though we know it can, and has happened in the past, the timing has to be perfect with moisture and cold air for spring snow to occur along the coastal plain.

Getting back to how hail forms. When it’s so cold in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the environment becomes very unstable. Early morning sun heats the ground quickly, causing the air to rise. As this warm air rises it cools and condenses when it encounters the cold air, resulting in rapidly building cumulonimbus clouds. This gives the sky that dark look we saw on Saturday. Because the air is so cold aloft, water droplets freeze, creating balls of ice. Violent updraft and downdrafts of air can keep these balls of ice aloft, growing the stone as water droplets super cool and freeze. If the ice ball is suspended in the air long enough, it can grow into golf ball, and sometimes even into baseball and on rare occasions softball size! When it gets too heavy to be suspended, it falls to the ground a  hailstone! If you split a large hailstone in half, you can see layered rings similar to a tree stump. These rings are the layers of ice as the water freezes on the hailstone.

Lucky for us here in New England, we typically see pea sized hail. On rare occasions, I have heard reports of golf ball size. Folks who live in the Midwest, Texas, Oklahoma, experience much larger hailstorms, frequently resulting in serious property damage!

In many ways, we are quite fortunate here in New England. Other parts of the country often see more intense, violent storms. Parts of the south have already endured round after round of severe weather this spring, often including high winds, flooding rains, destructive hailstorms, and most feared…tornadoes. No doubt, we have our share of wild weather! From major hurricanes to historic blizzards, we have just about seen it all! Just this week, another storm will be affecting the south with more violent weather. In the colder sector of the storm, a major blizzard is likely for parts of the Dakotas and Montana!

This is why I say for us, seasonable is reasonable! I’m sure I have used this title as well in the past, but it works well, when other parts of the country are bracing for severe weather!

With the slightly cooler weather of late, green up is coming back closer to where it should be this time of year. Grass has come alive, and is turning very green inside of theI95 corridor. It may be ready for mowing by the end of April. I see more flowers are blooming too! It’s still too early to plant sensitive plants in the garden, however preparations can be well underway to begin soon. I would say give it a couple more weeks in the Boston area, and we should be in the clear of frost. However, it’s always a different story across the interior. In general, you still need to wait until after May 10th to avoid frosty weather. Even then, there have been years with frost through the entire month. A good rule of thumb is by Memorial Day, gardening will be in full swing with no threat of frost in these locations.

A few warm days this week will no doubt accelerate this process. If we see enough sun, some locations may approach 70 degrees both tomorrow and Thursday! By the end of the week, you will notice more vegetation blooming across the area. I see some trees beginning to bud, but true leaf out begins after April 20th, and is fully complete by May 10th around here. As mentioned in previous posts, this process begins along the coast first, and works north and west as the sun angle increases. Full leaf out does not arrive in northern New England until Memorial Day, and early June in higher terrain locations. With the mild weather we have been experiencing, I would say this is either on time, or slightly ahead of schedule this year.

With warmer temperatures arriving, thoughts quickly turn to our upcoming summer. My official summer forecast will be posted on May 23rd this year. It sneaks up fast, and in reality is only about 5 weeks away! In my opinion, last summer brought us awful weather! Blistering heat, punctuated by torrential downpours, and even full blown summertime nor’easters! Remember 4th of July weather last summer??? Terrible! Record cold temperatures and soaking downpours along with thunder and lightning!

Early indications for this summer is pointing towards yet another hotter than average summer. Despite all the torrential rains last summer, Boston still managed to observe 24 ninety degree days, and also averaged the warmest summer on record. Boston typically receives 14 ninety degree days on average. At this early juncture, I can see somewhere between 14 and 19 ninety degree days, along with a wetter than normal summer, but not nearly as rainy as last year. Some are calling for the hottest record on summer. This may be true, but the most intense heat may be centered across the center of the country, and Boston may be on the edge of the most intense heat. Wow,,,keep that intense heat away from me! I love some hot weather during summertime, but anything more than 14 days of 90 degree temperatures I consider too much!

We shall see how this trends, we’re still only in April. If we were heading towards winter, it would similar if I was speaking to everyone on October 11th. If La Nina persists into this summer and next fall, it could very well be a very hot summer across the country. I will have much more on our summer forecast in the coming weeks heading into May!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect a beautiful mid spring day here in New England today! There will be nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, and temperatures will respond up into the low 60’s. A veil of high clouds towards evening may cast away for a spectacular sunset in the Boston area. One of my favorite spots to view sunsets is right down the street from my house at Millennium Park! What a gem , right here in the city! How wonderful is that!

Look for thickening clouds this evening. Later tonight, well after midnight, there will be some showers moving through the region. It will be on the mild side, with lows generally in the 40’s.

After a damp start to the day, watch for clouds to break by late morning. If we see enough sunshine,  temperatures may spike well up into the 60’s tomorrow. There’s even an outside chance of a few communities reaching 70!

Mainly fair and mild weather is expected Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 30’s and 40’s.

I’m expecting a mild and mainly dry day on Wednesday. A another warm front will be moving through the area, which typically brings quite a bit of cloudiness with them. There may even be some light showers in southern New Hampshire. I have been burned with these situations before, with unexpected soaking rains. I don’t believe this will be the case Wednesday, but I would have an umbrella handy just in case. It will be mild with temperatures once again up into the 60’s.

More showers may arrive later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is where the forecast becomes very tricky! A wavy weather front will be draped across the region on Thursday. To the north and east of the front it will be much cooler, with highs only in the low 50’s, with easterly winds. To the south and southwest of the front, it will be like summer, with highs approaching the low 70’s! From my experience, I would expect Boston to remain on the cooler side of this front, with highs only in the 50’s. However, if you live in places like Hartford, Connecticut, you may enjoy temperatures close to 70!

Southwesterly flow may push this boundary north on Friday, resulting in many locations to enjoy warmer temperatures, with highs mainly in the 60’s, perhaps lower 70’s again. Temperatures may begin to cool on Saturday, along with the threat of some showers especially during the afternoon. This is a shaky forecast, and I would suggest you check in with local forecasts if your plans take you out of doors on Saturday.

Right now, Easter Sunday is looking cooler and drier. However, similar to Saturday, the forecast is changeable, and may also feature some rain, depending on location and timing of nearby storms. Basically, the forecast becomes less certain after 5 days, due to a changing weather pattern to cooler and unsettled for next week. Right now, Marathon Monday looks cool and dry, but again, a nearby storm may mean rain  not too far away.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will post my  winter review and my final grade from my winter forecast posted last fall. I will also discuss why every summer has been  hotter than normal in recent years. In the meantime, enjoy the seasonable weather this week…it’s not always guaranteed!

Happy Easter many who celebrate this week!

Thanks for checking in!

Pete

April Showers Bring May Flowers…4/4/22

Hello! Happy April! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a fairly typical weekend weather wise for early April. Saturday featured mainly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures. Sunday brought some sun in the morning, but clouds dominated the afternoon. It was brisk and chilly, with a wind coming in off the ocean. There were some light showers Sunday night, but most of the weekend remained dry. If you wore a light jacket, it was a nice weekend to get outdoors for a hike, walk, or start some yard cleanup.

Yes, I may of used this title before over the last 12 years at some point. It’s a phrase everyone knows, and most enjoy to say! After a couple nice days, it appears as if we have not only April showers heading our way, but more like a good soaking rainfall across most of the region. As it does frequently this time of year…it rains, sometimes a lot. Rain is good this time of year. There’s nothing worse than a dry spring! We need the rain now, not on 4th of July like last year!

Copious spring rainfall is great for so many reasons. At this time of year, the ground and vegetation need rain to set our growing season off on the right foot! What I mean by vegetation is anything that grows from the ground. This means our lawns, gardens, trees and flowers. Farmers are pleased with spring rains to help fruits and vegetables grow for summer crops.

Spring rains are important for other reason, too. You wouldn’t think, but New England has a fire season! Fires can occur anytime of the year. However, April and May are an especially dangerous time. With no leaves on the trees, the increased sun angle is like a magnifying glass through the leafless trees, beaming straight to the dead leaves leftover from last fall. If there’s not enough rain to keep the dead brush damp, fires can easily ignite this time of year.

In addition, our ecology is dependent on how much or how little rain we receive this time of year. It all ties in together. All aquatic, birds and animals, including humans need water to survive! After a hideous several year drought, Mother Nature unleashed torrents of rain last summer, replenishing streams, ponds, lakes and reservoirs. While it wasn’t a particularly wet winter, it wasn’t dry either, we had our share of precipitation. Many times after such a wet summer, the following winter is drier than normal, but that wasn’t the case this year, at least not here in southern New England.

I’m please to announce we are in much better shape heading into spring and summer this season, than we have been the past several years. This will likely lead to a greener spring, with lush lawns, healthy leaves on the trees, and of course, those beautiful May flowers!

You may say, Pete, it still looks like winter out there! Yes, indeed it does! The cold snap a week ago today certainly set back spring a few days. However, now that we are in April, the sun is gaining strength everyday. I already noticed a huge difference in green up the past couple days driving around my neighborhood.  It happens like clockwork this time of year. The radiation from the sun is just warm enough to turn the grass green, seemingly overnight! For those who take care of their lawns on a seasonal basis, they are reaping the benefits now with a nice green lawn!

Next step in our spring timetable is the emergence of leaves on our trees. We are still a couple weeks away from this happening, and is temperature dependent. Eventually, we’re going to see temperatures warm up into the 70’s. When this happens, you’ll notice the trees budding and beginning to flower. Shortly thereafter, young leaves emerge, and we’ve arrived to leaf out! Some leaves bloom earlier than others, but a good rule of thumb is between April 20th and 30th, trees flower and leaves begin to emerge. By May 1st, 75% of trees will have leaves on their trees. By Mother’s Day, 90% of trees will have bloomed. This process occurs earliest close to the coast and in warmer urban areas. North and west of I95 this process is slower, and you can add about 7 to 10 days before leaves arrive in earnest by mid May. It may take until the last two weeks if you live in northern New England, and maybe not until Memorial Day or later in the mountains!

With all that being said, April can be a tricky month weather wise! With it being a transition month to spring, we can still see setbacks with cold temperatures. Snowfall is not that unusual and not out of the question, either. Leftover cold air in Canada often times can clash with building summer warmth in the south. Some years, this can lead to intense spring storms, which can feature thunderstorms and tornadoes on the warm side, and spring blizzards on the cold side.

Last week, it was looking like weather patterns would be colder the first couple weeks of April, with even a chance for some snow. This week, it’s still looking unsettled, but warmer, so snow is pretty much off the table. There still may be some bouts of snow in higher elevations of northern New England, but this is normal in this region. Down here, I’m expecting near to slightly above average amounts of precipitation this April, and warmer than average temperatures. Boston typically receives around 4″ of rain in April. Trends have been to strengthen the southeast ridge in recent computer model data. This looks to override the weakening Polar Vortex, leading to above average temperatures in Boston this April. Of course, it’s always a bumpy ride how we get there, as temperatures can be more like a roller coaster with times of warm weather, then periods of cool. However in the end, it looks like it’s going to be a warmer than normal April this year. I believe the accumulating snow for Boston is over for the season. It’s possible we still may see snow in the air at some point this month, but accumulations are unlikely. It’s never truly over until after May 10th, but accumulating snow from this point forward is not expected this year.

This will continue the trend of a warmer than normal spring around here. March, though not excessively warm, did end up around 2 and half degrees above average. Boston only received 2″ of snowfall, making this the third below average year in a row for snow in March. In fact, the previous two years only saw .4″ and that occurred two years ago, which means last year we received 0″ of snow in Boston. Very unusual indeed, as the city typically averages 9″ of snow in March. A late March cold snap actually prevented the average high temperature from being even warmer than it already was.

Many friends and family have been asking me about my thoughts on the upcoming summer. It’s still a little early to tell for sure. I have seen some early predictions calling for the hottest summer on record to slightly cooler than normal. Last year, Boston recorded 24 ninety degree days, along with being one of the wettest summers on record. I have lived in Boston my entire life, and have never witnessed any summer like it!

As if the heat wasn’t enough, the humidity levels were ridiculously high. I will say this, Boston has never observed back to back summers with 20 + ninety degrees days in recorded history. If there’s any summer that can break this streak, it would be this upcoming summer. Not a forecast just yet, but the warm trends are out of control here. So far, I see no evidence of a cooler than normal summer. I will leave it at that, and discuss more about our upcoming summer in future posts. My official summer forecast will be posted on Monday, May 23rd!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week a 5 out of 10. Rainy, cool weather incoming!

For the rest of today, enjoy the bright sunshine and milder temperatures! Expect a pleasant afternoon, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming up into the mid 50’s. It should be a fine evening for a walk or run.

Watch for fair and cool weather tonight, with lows mainly in the 30’s to low 40’s. Warmest in urban areas.

Tuesday should feature sunshine early, fading behind increasing clouds. Temperatures will be even a touch warmer than today, with highs near 60. However, light winds means that an afternoon sea breeze could cool coastal communities back down close to 50.

Gathering storm system to our southwest will begin tracking towards New England. In a winter like type storm, this storm will track south of New England. Fortunate for us, temperatures will be too warm to support any snow, but still cold enough to make us feel quite miserable! Typical for April! Expect rain to overspread the region from southwest to northeast arriving in most areas before you wake up Wednesday morning.

As for Wednesday itself, expect it to be a washout, with rain, heavy at times and gusty east winds. It will be cold & damp as well, with high temperatures only in the 40’s. Yuck! Rain or drizzle may persist for much of Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There may be a break in the precipitation for part of Thursday, however another storm will be approaching the region later in the day.

Watch for more rain, heavy at times to develop later Thursday and continue into Friday morning. As this storm tracks through New England, expect a punch of drier and warmer air to arrive on Friday. Temperatures may respond, with highs in the 60’s on Friday, along with some sun. That should feel nice!

As for our weekend, another cold pool aloft will be tracking through New England. This is common during spring. While no washout is anticipated, early morning sun should yield to building afternoon cumulus clouds, which may yield some scattered showers in some communities each day. It will be somewhat cooler, with highs back into the 50’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let folks who enjoy gardening when it may be safe to start up the garden. I will also have one more update on our April weather patterns, just in case there are any surprises! I may also chat a little more about our upcoming summer patterns. In the meantime, we must endure the April showers, to enjoy the May flowers!

Be safe, everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter’s Last Blast? 3/28/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Weather wise, it was a variable, depending upon where you were located. Some places saw some sun, some rain, and some even saw snow! Overall, it was fairly typical weather for March…which meant it was very changeable! After the mild day on Friday, several cold fronts began to sweep across New England. As each front passed through, temperatures became a little colder. While it wasn’t too noticeable here at sea level, the air in the upper atmosphere was becoming very cold aloft. While Saturday started out with bright sunshine, the air became very unstable in the afternoon, leading to widespread showers, some even with ice pellets and small hail! There was a bit more sunshine along the coastal plain on Sunday, however, this was not indicative to weather across other parts of New England. Even colder air was slowly working its way in across New England from New York state. This led to widespread snow showers and squalls across much of interior New England, including Vermont, New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, and even northwest Connecticut! A friend of mine sent me a video of snow falling at a steady clip in New Hampshire yesterday!

Even colder weather in association with a lobe of the Polar Vortex has arrived across all New England today, with some cities and towns experiencing their coldest March 28th low high temperatures on record! On its arrival, snow showers even made its way to the coast this morning, with a dusting noted in the Boston area. Similar to what happened over the weekend, some locations are experiencing their own little private snowstorm today! Very cold air passing over the Great Lakes in addition to cold unstable air aloft has led to streamers of snow stretching across much of New York state and into New England. These streamers have made their way all the way to parts of Connecticut, where some communities have needed to break out the plows and sanders! Heavy snow has also been reported across the higher terrain of Vermont and New Hampshire. There was even reports of heavy snow falling for a time across the Cape this morning!

Snow and cold is not that unusual for upstate New York and New England this time of year, as March is still a wintry month in this region. However, this March has featured well above average temperatures in many locations, with very little snowfall. For some, this late March blast of wintry weather may come as a bit of surprise. This is not a surprise to atmospheric scientist Judah Cohen, who has been warning of a late season breakdown of the Polar Vortex for several weeks now. To be honest, I thought it was going to be worse than this. I was envisioning a late winter early spring snowstorm to accompany the cold snap.

The big question moving forward, is whether this visit from the Polar Vortex is going to be transient, with a rebound to springlike temperatures in the coming days, or persist. From what I can see, the answer to this question is yes & no. Checking out some of the latest long range guidance from computer models, it looks like we will be entering somewhat of a roller coaster temperature regime as we begin April. For the rest of this week, expect a gradual warming trend, with 60’s possible as we enter April 1st on Friday. Thereafter, it looks like a somewhat unsettled weather pattern may persist for the first two weeks of April.

With this unstable pattern, means the potential of more storms, a couple of which may take on winter like characteristics. Long rang computer models continue to show a rather active storm track, with systems passing through and south of New England, in a nor’easter like fashion. This could be a reflection of the Greenland Block persisting the first half of April. With lobes of the Polar Vortex still spilling into New England at times, it’s not inconceivable to see a springtime snowstorm in parts of New England some time during the first two weeks of April. This would favor higher terrain locations and across the interior, but as I mentioned in my post last week, if the everything lines up in a favorable way, even coastal locations can see heavy snow in April.

Before you edge closer to the cliff, remember, spring is officially here, and there are a lot of factors going against such a scenario playing out. When computer models show storms this time of year, they rarely pan out as initialized. What looks like a big snowstorm on computer models, can easily turn into 60’s & sunny. Conversely, rainy days can sometimes surprise with snow! This is New England, and one can not let their guard down until at least mid April. As I mentioned in my post last week, our latest snowstorm here in Boston was recorded on May 9th, 1977!

With all that being said, sustained warm spring weather does not appear to be in the cards for many of us here in New England through at least mid April. Yes, we will get some nice days here and there, but from what I can see, the cooler days will outnumber the warm days for a while yet. This should not come as a surprise. It’s fairly rare we waltz from winter straight into a beautiful spring without any setbacks around here.

Ocean temperatures lag behind landmass heating, creating  unstable thermal (temperature) patterns. This is called latent heating & cooling. The land heats up faster than the ocean, many times resulting in a delayed onset to true spring weather. Often times, you will see spring moving right along with green up fully underway in locations in southwest Connecticut points south and west, compared to here in Boston points north. Cold Atlantic Oceans can easily thwart intense warm ups to our southwest this time of the year, and many times well into May as well. Some years, even June can feature cool unsettled weather persisting well into the month.

Speaking of green up, where do we stand here in Boston? Well, due the warmer than normal March, we are actually running a bit ahead of schedule this year. I still believe the call from the local meteorologist a couple weeks ago claiming green up is in full swing and that we’ll be mowing soon was too premature! Yes, the grass is turning greener is some areas, and some hearty flowers such as daffodils have bloomed. From what I can see, we are running about 7 to 10 days ahead of schedule this year. A warmer than normal February and March has helped green things up a bit earlier than normal. If you live outside of Rt 128 heading into southern New Hampshire, green up is still a couple weeks away! As April 1st arrives, solar radiation becomes even stronger. At this point, you will begin to see grass dramatically turn green in Boston between April 1st and 10th. It’s possible mowing could begin as early as mid April this year, depending on weather patterns, which is about two weeks ahead of schedule.

In addition to grass turning green, we will see the forsythia begin to bloom in earnest, and other trees beginning to flower. If temperatures warm up enough, you will see the beautiful Magnolia trees bloom their white flowers before other trees first week of April. Leaf out in Boston typically begins around the middle of April. Depending on temperatures, full leaf out arrives between May 1st and May 10th. Again, if you live up north, it’s not until close to Memorial Day weekend when leaf out occurs, and sometimes even into June in higher terrain locations. It always amazes me to see the difference in our landscape only a few weeks can make. Here we are at the end of March and still looking pretty much like winter. Just one month from now spring will be in full bloom around here, with leaves not far behind! Due to seasonal shift, I believe spring and fall are our shortest seasons now. With a warming climate, summer now appears to be our longest season, with winter lagging behind. Yes, winter seems to linger into our springs these days, but summer also lasts deeper into our autumns, making summer the longest season…in my opinion.

Before I get to the forecast, I would like to have a brief weather history segment. Back on this date in 1984, a powerful early spring storm ravaged much of eastern Massachusetts. A massive late season nor’easter formed across the southern mid Atlantic coast and slowly tracked north towards New England. This storm was fueled by the clash of two air masses. Summertime warmth was across the south, while winter cold was pressing down from the north. This rapidly intensified the nor’easter, which turned into a massive cyclone along the east coast, bringing coastal flooding, and hurricane force winds to eastern Massachusetts. Heavy wet snow, which froze on all tree limbs and power lines, resulted in widespread power outages across the region. Between 10 and 17″ of heavy wet cement like snow combined with hurricane force winds created severe tree damage in our area similar to that of a hurricane. In a sense, it was a winter hurricane. I’ll never forget the powerful roar of the wind and blinding wet snow, as my life long friend and I watched as a 60 ft pine tree snap and topple to the ground right before our eyes! Indeed, a storm I will never forget!

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Not springlike at all, today!

Expect blustery and very cold temperatures for the rest of this afternoon. It will be mainly dry, but don’t be surprised if we see a couple more snow squalls move through the area later today and this evening. Temperatures will be hard pressed to reach freezing! If it does not make it to 33 degrees to day in Boston, it will break the record for coldest hi low temperature for the date! A difficult feat to do at this time of the year!

Expect clearing skies later tonight, and winter time cold temperatures. Lows will range in the teens and 20’s, warmest in urban locations.

Expect slightly milder weather for your Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies, and highs reaching the upper 30’s in most locations.

It should remain dry Tuesday night, and with light winds, temperatures will once again fall into the 20’s and lower 30’s.

There will be a warming trend for the period Wednesday through Friday. After some sunshine first part of the day, expect increasing clouds during Wednesday afternoon. It will be noticeably milder, with highs mainly in the 50’s.

A warm front will be approaching the region Wednesday night, and this will result in rain showers moving in across the region. It may be just cold enough at the onset for some sleet & wet snowflakes in some locations, but nothing of consequence is anticipated. Low temperatures will be in the 30’s and lower 40’s.

Expect more widespread showers on Thursday. It may not be raining all the time, but expect to get wet especially early and late, with perhaps a break during the middle of the day. It will be warmer, with highs in the lower 60’s.

As the cold front tracks offshore on Friday, expect clearing skies with west winds. This is a warming wind for us here in eastern Massachusetts, and temperatures may respond to the mid and upper 60’s.

Just when you think spring is finally here, it will turn noticeably windy cooler this weekend, especially on Saturday. Winds will be lighter on Sunday, and temperatures should respond back up into the mid 50’s. I do not anticipate any rain at this point for this upcoming weekend. Happy April!

Well, that’s about it for now my friends! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the month of March, and have my preview for what to expect for April. Not too accurate of a forecast for March, so we’ll see how I do in the tricky month of April! I will also have your new spring timetable update, as well as your weekly forecast. In the meantime, if you don’t like this cold blast…it won’t last! For what it’s worth, it may not be this cold again until next November!

Stay warm & safe!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Hello…Spring? 3/21/22

Hello! Happy Spring! I hope everyone enjoyed their, weekend! It was a 50/50 weekend around here. weather wise. Saturday was damp, with periods of showers. While not cold, it was cool enough, with temperatures remaining mainly in the 40’s. As the storm lifted north, a punch of dry air worked up the coastal plain into Boston just in time for the annual St. Patrick’s Day Parade yesterday! Due to the pandemic, this was the first such parade in Boston in three years! With temperatures warming to the low 60’s, it appeared as if a good time was had by all. If you weren’t at the parade, it was a beautiful day to go for a run, a walk in the park, or take a hike in the woods.

Spring has officially arrived! Congratulations for making it through another New England, winter! The weather this last week of winter would of made you think spring arrived a good week ago. It was a very mild to warm week, with temperatures mainly in the 50’s and low 60’s around the area. There was a brief setback last Thursday, only to rebound to near 70 degrees last Friday! With all this warm air, there have been reports of flowers beginning to bloom across the area, and I did notice some lawns starting to come to life. Not full green up just yet, but it’s getting close.

Last week, a local meteorologist mentioned green up will be well underway in Boston, with lawn mowing soon after that. I was skeptical, as green up typically gets going in Boston by April 1st. Indeed, with the warm temperatures of last week, I have noticed some grass beginning to turn green, especially in exposed south facing areas. However, I still feel it was a bit premature to call for green up to arrive, with lawn mowing! While temperatures do play a major role, it has more to do with incoming solar radiation that facilitates greenery to arrive in our area. Green up begins along the coastal plain first, then spreads inland and north as the sun’s angle increases. Solar radiation from the sun is getting stronger with each passing day. Still, it’s around the end of March and first of April when it really warms up the ground sufficiently enough to turn the grass green. And it doesn’t take long! This process can seemingly happen overnight!

I saw video footage of the National Cherry Blossom Festival in Washington D.C. yesterday. Washington D.C.’s latitude is further south, in the mid Atlantic region. Therefore, the sun angle is higher, leading to earlier spring. The grass was vibrant green already, and the trees were blooming their beautiful flowers! This year, the trees are blooming slightly ahead of schedule, but nothing out of the ordinary.

How mild or severe the preceding winter was plays a role in whether the blossoms are delayed or arrives sooner. Overall, this winter was yet another mild winter here in Boston, and even more so so anywhere south of New York. Yes, January featured below average temperatures for the month as a whole, but December, February and now March all featured above average temperatures. We did have slightly above average snow this winter, focused more closer to the coast, than inland. It wouldn’t surprise me if green up arrives in Boston before March is through. However, cooler temperatures for the balance of the month is going to keep this in check for the time being, in my opinion. I will have my winter review sometime in early April.

Nevertheless, spring is here! Whatever happens moving forward will officially be labelled under the season of spring! As I have mentioned many times, you can’t stop the change of seasons! We are gaining more daylight during the month of March, than in any other month of the year! Peepers are out in full force, daffodils and crocuses are blooming seemingly everywhere, and most importantly, temperatures are warming up! It won’t be long now when the grass turns green and folks can permanently put the snow removal equipment away for good!

So this begs the question…is winter completely over? Astronomically speaking, yes, winter is over. However, we now enter the stage here in New England when anything is still possible! In the 11 seasons of New England, we have moved beyond spring of deception, and are heading towards third winter! I have lived here in New England to understand that snow is not completely off the table until after May 10th. Indeed, snow after mid April  is a rarity here in Boston. However, as recent as last year, Boston received a small accumulation of snow on April 15th, and our latest snowstorm on record was May 9th, 1977! We also received snow showers two years ago on the same date!

Looking back in weather history, there have been many late season snowstorms here in New England. Most favor inland and high terrain, but there have been a few notable events occurring right to the coast as well! Who can ever forget the massive April Fools’ Blizzard back in 1997! This was Boston’s largest spring snowstorm in recorded history, when 2 to 3 ft of heavy wet snow buried the city that year. Boston has observed many other spring surprises over the years! In 2016 we received back to back snowstorms at the start of April totaling 6 to 12″. Other notable events occurred in April of 1996, when back to back nor’easters brought heavy snow in Boston and a white Easter. Still another April storm occurred at the end of April in 1987 bringing the most snow ever recorded so late in the season to Boston. i also remember a fierce blizzard striking the region in April of 1982, with 1 to 2 Ft of wind driven powder, and thunder & lightning! I also remember a powerful spring storm at the end of March back in 1984 that brought widespread tree damage and power outages after a foot of icy wet snow plastered the Boston area.

If you live in northern New England and especially inland and higher terrain, spring can be just an extension of winter. Heavy snowstorms frequently occur more often than not, extending the ski season well into May. I recall a massive Mother’s Day storm a few years ago when Mt. Washington received three feet of snow!

That’s history! It’s nice to look back, but most people want to know about the present and future weather patterns in real time! What can we expect this spring? Well, it looks like I may of been off the mark so far for this March. I expected more wintry weather, but so far, it’s been more lamb than lion like! So far, Boston has only received 2.1″ of snow this March. Average snowfall for Boston in March is 9″. This is the third year in a row with below normal snowfall. In fact, we only received .5″ the last two years, as we received 0″ of snow last March. I would be surprised if we made it through the rest of March without any additional snowfall. However, at this time of the year, there’s also an equal chance the snow season is sadly over for Boston. We’ll see what the last charge of winter brings.

As I have been mentioning in the last several posts, Judah Cohen has been carefully monitoring the collapse of the Polar Vortex here in March. I hate to dampen everyone’s spirits, but it appears we have one more stretch of winter like weather before winter leaves for good this year. As I mentioned above, we are entering what they call “third winter season” here in New England. This should come as no surprise for seasoned New England residents! Many fully anticipate more cold and possibly even some snow before spring takes over completely.

It’s not all bad news! After this cold, inclement period lifts out, I’m anticipating a rebound to warmer weather the second half of April, if not sooner! More good news for folks who enjoy warm summers. The National Weather Service has issued their first summer outlook, and at this early juncture, it appears as if New England is in for yet another hotter than normal summer…our 4th in a row!

As I mentioned above, the strong Polar Vortex this past winter, is about to collapse. What does this mean for New England? Well, according to some long range computer guidance, it appears as if the a Greenland Block is going to develop towards the end of March. This will help disrupt the Polar Vortex, and will most likely result in a complete split. If this occurs, a lobe of the vortex may migrate down through the eastern part of the U.S. towards the end of March and start of April. If blocking becomes established, it may “trap” this cold pocket of air across New England for a 10 to 14 day stretch. This may take us through the first 10 days of April with below normal temperatures.

No need to panic, just yet! Below average this time of year does not mean 20’s and 30’s. Average high temperatures run into the low 50’s, and are warming as each day passes. Towards the end of the month, average high temperatures is upper 50’s. So if below average temperatures do settle in, we’re looking at highs mainly in the 40’s and low 50’s. I’m monitoring the end of March and beginning of April for the chance for an early spring storm. Whether it’s snow or rain or a combination of the two is too early to determine right now. But with a Greenland Block developing and enough cold air available, there is still a chance for spring snow for parts of our area. Odds favor interior and higher terrain at this point, but if the storm takes a favorable track south of New England, it could pull down enough cold air for snow to make it right to the coast as well!

This set up makes some sense. We have seen cold weather and wintry precipitation make a come back towards the end of each month this past winter. We shall see if this trend continues, or not! If it does snow, it doesn’t last long this time of year. Our sun is as strong as early September now!

As mentioned above, after this trough (cold & wet) lifts out, it appears as if winter will finally be over. For the rest of April and May, I’m expecting typical spring weather patterns to take over. This means some nice warm days, but also periods of rainy weather too. Right now, I would favor warm over cool for the rest of spring. With above normal ocean temperatures persisting with no end in sight, summer looks to favor hotter than normal temperatures here in New England, and not as much rain as last year. Watch for my official summer forecast to be posted on Monday, May 23rd…which is only two months away from now!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. There is still snow up in the mountains for some spring skiing to be had. However, if they don’t receive some late season snowfalls, this snow will melt, leading to an early close to the already sub par season this year. The official ski forecasts are over now, but I’ll keep everyone posted for friends who enjoy spring skiing. As for our weather, I will rate this week a 6 out of 10…inclement and cooler overall.

Watch for breezy conditions this afternoon under mainly sunny skies, along with some fair weather puffy cumulus clouds. It will be cooler than yesterday, but only back to seasonal levels, if not a bit above. High temperatures in the area will range from near 50 in higher terrain areas, to mid to even upper 50’s along the coastal plain.

Watch for clearing skies tonight, with slightly colder temperatures moving back into the region. Lows will fall into the 20’s and 30’s, coldest across inland areas.

The theme for the rest of the week will be somewhat cooler and inclement weather at times. While I do not see any big storms, we will have to deal with times of rain later in the week.

Tuesday will feature a good deal of sunshine, but notably cooler. Nonetheless, with the strong late March sun, it will feel a lot warmer than what it is out there. Temperatures will remain in the 40’s tomorrow. Some communities may sneak into the low 50’s. But prepare for cooler temperatures.

Fair and rather chilly weather is on tap for your Tuesday night. Expect low temperatures to range from the 20’s to low 30’s, warmest in urban areas and along the coast.

Wednesday should feature dry and cool weather, with highs in the 40’s and low 50’s. Watch for increasing clouds during the afternoon ahead of a warm front.

A rather complex low pressure system will begin moving into the region Wednesday night through Friday. At first, a warm front will be approaching New England from the south Wednesday night. As precipitation moves in, it may be cold enough for some parts of the region to see wet snow or a mix at the onset, particularly from Rt 2 points north. It’s not out of the question that some of you in southern New Hampshire wake up to a slushy coating of snow Thursday morning. As the warm front tracks north, any mixed precipitation will change to plain rain as temperatures warm up. For the rest of us, watch for rainy weather on Thursday, with highs warming up into the low 50’s. A cold front will sag south of the region Thursday night, and yet another low pressure may develop on this front and push another surge of rainfall back into the region on Friday. There may be just enough cold air so some places in the higher terrain of the Berkshires and Green and White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire may mix with and change to wet snow. It will be cooler on Friday, with highs only in the 40’s.

Rain will slowly move out of the region later Friday night leading to a dry but chilly Saturday. If we see some breaks of sun, temperatures may reach the low 50’s, otherwise they may hold in the 40’s all day.

Right now, Sunday looks mainly dry, but a storm may be close by. It looks like mainly a miss, but if your plans bring you outdoors, I would check back with local forecasts for Sunday just in case. I would call it a bit iffy at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review the spring timetable, and let everyone know where we stand with that. I will also have the latest on the possibility of winter’s last hurrah! In the meantime…it only gets brighter and warmer from this point forward! Enjoy!

~Be safe!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete