Suddenly..It’s Spring! 3/14/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a wintry weekend, weather wise. Saturday was mild, with some rain showers around Boston. Later in the day, the wind shifted to the northwest, which ushered in colder temperatures, and changed any remaining moisture to a period of snow showers. While it wasn’t too much of a big deal around Boston, snow fell for much of the day in northern and western New England, where many locations received between 5 and 10″ of snow. Ski resorts up north were the big winners, where between 10 and 16″ of snow fell throughout the day on Saturday. Skies cleared Saturday night, but high winds brought bitterly cold wind chills to the region! Sunday featured bright sunshine, but temperatures did not get out of the 20’s up north, and remained in the 30’s down here in southern New England.

Have you had enough winter? For many, the answer to this question would be a resounding, yes!! I see things differently, but can certainly feel the anxiety for folks who want warmer weather sooner rather than later! Looking over some of the latest long range computer data, it appears that they will get their wish! Last week, I was talking about the possibility of another winter storm for us this week. Not only is there no storm coming, but in a resounding turn of events, it appears as if a big ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) will be building into the eastern part of the United States for this week.

In weather, and in many things in life, I love the quote from Albert Einstein “all things are relative.”  While winters have been fairly mild over the past seven years, we’ve had our moments. For instance, this winter is the snowiest winter in Boston since 2017-18. That winter, Boston saw 59″ of snow. So far this winter, we stand at 54.” While this is only slightly snowier than average, it’s how & when we received the snow that can be somewhat deceiving. Remember, Boston had less than one inch of snow as recent as January 6th of this year! All of our snow has fallen in a fairly intense two month stretch of winter weather.

Yet, it hasn’t been all that bad. January was our roughest month, with temperatures averaging 2 degrees below average, and snowfall averaging triple what we normally receive. The big storm was the blizzard on January 29th, when the Boston area received anywhere from 18 to 30″ of powdery windblown snow. That was quite the storm! However, in keeping with the theme of the winter, warm temperatures quickly followed this storm, leading to rapid snow melt. In fact, there was not one instance of snow falling on top of previous snow this winter. Every storm melted within days of falling, followed by a new snowfall. This in itself made for a winter that’s manageable for home owners, businesses, and DPW crews.

I find it interesting how we perceive our winters here in New England. Back in 2015, Boston was buried under 94″ of snow in three weeks, and 110.8″ for the winter, which did not get started until January 24th that year! To make matters worse, the city experienced the second coldest February’s on record! This meant there was very little melting of the snow that fell, as four consecutive blizzards fell on top of one another! A study out of MIT compiled all of Boston’s winters throughout record keeping, and determined by a mathematical equation no doubt that winter 2014-15 was the most severe winter in Boston history! You could say that this winter was only half the winter that 2014-15 was!

But that was then, and this is now. So far, Boston has received just a tiny bit over 2″ of snow this March. Logan Airport typically receives 9″ of snow in an average March. If we do not receive anymore snow, this would make it the third March in a row with below average snowfall. Since the previous two March’s were essentially snow less, the average for these three March snowfalls is going to be quite meager.

I will say this. It may not be this year, who knows, maybe not even next year, but one of these years, March is going to unleash a fierce storm in our area, most likely a record breaker. It’s just Mother Nature’s way of balancing things out. While I believe March is mostly a wintry month, it also can be looked at as a transition month. Some years, it’s mild & springlike. Other years, like 2018 very wintry. While still others, a combination of the two.

You may ask, Pete, weren’t you predicting a harsh March with extreme weather patterns, and the potential of a big snowstorm? Yes, you are correct, I was anticipating these events to unfold this March. Earlier in the month, computer models were showing abundant cold air in nearby Canada, with teleconnections favoring storms tracking close to the boundary of very cold to the north, and very warm to our south. We had our opportunity for our big storm this past weekend. Luckily for us, the storm phased too late, and rapid intensification took place north of our latitude, sparing Boston a major snowstorm. Now, it appears at least for the next two weeks, a deep trough is going to develop out west (cold & stormy), and a big ridge is going to dominate in the east (warm & dry). This is good news for my Denver friends Will & Brett, who will most likely see a good storm or two in the mile high city! This is very similar patterns to what happened last March.

So is winter completely over? Can we finally put away the snow shovels for good? Not just yet! It’s only March 14th, and Boston has seen snow as late as May 10th! There is still the matter of the Polar Vortex we have to deal with. Latest indications show that the Polar Vortex will undergo a major disruption, and most likely a split. If this occurs, there may be one more wintry spell the first 10 days of April, before we can finally close the book on winter. Before that happens, it indeed appears the rest of March, at least through the 25th look to be on the mild to warm side. However, we have seen patterns change on a dime this winter. Despite the warm stretch coming, don’t be surprised if we see  snow in the air sometime later in March.

With the incoming warmer temperatures, I noticed some local meteorologists getting a bit too excited for the arrival of spring. He mentioned how things should be really greening up around our region later this week. No doubt, warmer weather is coming…however, this is no March 2012. Yes, the sun is getting stronger, and there will be some flowers sprouting, but don’t expect to be mowing lawns this weekend. The radiation from the sun is still not strong enough to support widespread green up in our region. Typically, this does not occur until the first week in April on average. There are some exceptions. March 2012 was such a blow torch, trees were blooming and people were going to the beach on St. Patrick’s Day! Contrary to that, there was no spring a couple years ago, as it was so cold around here nothing bloomed until late April. It basically went from winter to summer, which it is known to do around here!

Now that spring is less than one week from arriving, what can we expect moving forward? Well, since March is already half over, it appears as if this month is going to end up above average temperature wise in Boston. March is also one of our wettest months, but this year may end up a little below average. This is quite different on what I envisioned. Looks like snowfall will also end up below average for the third year in a row, as mentioned above. Placing this all together, it looks like spring will be arriving early in Boston for a change. Let’s just hope it’s not a “spring of deception” this year!

I’m forecasting a setback to spring the first part of April. This is not uncommon at all around here. Just when you think winter is over, there’s one or two more surprises. A Greenland Block may develop the first part of April, sending chilly air from Canada down into New England. If moisture and cold enough air meet up at the right time, there’s always the possibility of a late season snowfall. One thing for sure, if it snows in April, it doesn’t last long! If the Greenland Block breaks down, it could turn warmer for the second part of April, making April a near normal month temperature wise.

Sometimes, winter patterns can even linger into May! This has been the case the past couple years, as May has featured below average temperatures in Boston. It’s a ways out, but summer may arrive early this year? Depending on what La Nina does, it may continue to promote ridging in the eastern part of the country, which may promote early season warm temperatures. I’m thinking May will feature warmer than normal weather this year. For reference, I’m planning on posting my summer forecast this year on May 30th.

Here’s your weekly ski and snowboarding forecast. Well, as advertised last Monday, the storm was a big hit at many ski resorts in northern and western New England last Saturday. Many resorts received between 10 and 16″ some even more. Overall, this winter featured below average snowfall to many resorts. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. It looks like temperatures will be warming up, but not as warm as southern New England. In addition, there may be some natural snowfall streaming across northern New England tomorrow night into early Wednesday. Otherwise, it looks fairly tranquil this week. Even milder weather will arrive by the end of the week, bringing spring conditions to many resorts. It will turn cooler this weekend, with the chance of some showers Saturday, which may be mixed with some snow in some northern resorts. Sunday looks cooler & drier.

Now time for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. This will be our last winter forecast, as spring arrives this Sunday! I’m giving this week an 8 out of 10. Look for mainly sunny skies and milder temperatures this afternoon, with highs reaching the low 50’s. It will be a fine evening for a walk or a run. Dry weather will continue overnight, along with some cloudiness. The clouds will prevent radiational cooling from developing, therefore low temperatures will be dropping only into the 30’s and 40’s, warmest in urban areas.

Expect a mixture of clouds and sun on Tuesday. A wavy front will be north of our areas, keeping us in the mild flow. It will be cooler north of this front across much of northern New England. There may be a few spotty showers moving across southern New England later on in the day into the night, but I’m not expecting any washout by any means. It will be on the mild side, with highs generally in the mid to upper 50’s.

Wednesday should feature sunshine mixed with some clouds. Mild temperatures will continue, with highs mainly in the 50’s to near 60. However, as a passage to spring, we must remember ocean temperatures are at their coldest point of the year. Any slight sea breeze off the ocean may plummet temperatures into the 40’s along the immediate coast, within 5 miles of the ocean.

I’m expecting mainly dry and mild conditions for Thursday…Happy St Patrick’s Day! There is a chance of scattered showers at night, but no heavy rain is anticipated at this time. It will be mild, with highs between 55 and 65. Again, deduct 10 degrees if any sea breezes develop along the coast.

Even warmer weather is anticipated for Friday. If we can avert the sea breeze, we could see temperatures reaching the low 70’s in many communities. Spring Fever will be gripping the region! If a sea breeze develops, coastal communities may hold in the upper 50’s.

If clouds hold off, you may catch the full “Worm Moon” rising in the east, Friday evening.

A frontal boundary may settle down into New England bringing a chance of showers on Saturday. This may be a more widespread event compared to anything we receive this week. No soaking is anticipated, but many towns may get wet.

This should clear out on Sunday, leading to partly to mostly sunny skies for the St. Patrick’s Day Parade held in South Boston. It will be cooler, but not cold. Expect highs mainly in the 50’s, so a light jacket would be in order. Also, this is this the day of the spring equinox. Happy first day of spring! Enjoy!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review my outlook for the rest of March, just to make sure winter doesn’t try and pull a fast one on us! I will also take a look at our spring timetable, and a have a new spring outdoor activity forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the early spring weather, and hope for no more sudden visits from winter!

~Be safe & Thanks for Reading!~

Pete

What?? Snow Again?!?! 3/7/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a glorious weekend weather wise around the region! Saturday started off chilly, but turned milder as the day progressed. Nevertheless, the resilient snow pack remained at the end of the day. Clouds increased, and Sunday dawned with threatening skies. A warm front was trying to push north during the morning, and I had my doubts if it was ever going to make it. They called for rain Sunday, but I only observed the skies rapidly clearing, with a gusty southwest wind blowing! In a matter of minutes, temperatures shot up, and spring fever was in full swing across the Boston area! The warm front had blasted through Boston and was heading north! Whatever snow remaining, vanished as temperatures shot up into the mid 60’s! It was a beautiful day to get out & enjoy the springlike weather, and was definitely a preview of things to come!

As I mentioned in my monthly outlook in last weeks post, March is going to be a month of wild weather swings! I was fully expecting bursts of warm weather. However, I’m also expecting surges of cold weather, and the potential for more snow, even the chance of another snowstorm or two before we change seasons to spring. Could we actually do it as early as this week? From springlike thunderstorms this evening to possible snow on Wednesday? After our very warm Sunday, I am watching for the potential for accumulating snow as early as this Wednesday. Yikes!

While it’s human nature wanting to shut down winter as soon as March hits, it’s still officially winter until March 20th the last time I checked! Temperatures we experienced on Sunday only gave people false hope that winter is officially over! I was socializing with some friends last evening, and they asked me if winter was over. They were quite shocked and saddened when I told them no…we can expect more snow and cold in the coming weeks. I totally understand. It was so warm & beautiful on Sunday, it’s almost hard to believe that it’s going to snow again!

Some may say it’s too warm to snow now. Or the sun angle is too strong, and snow can’t stick. I can assure you, if it comes down hard enough, and temperatures fall to 32 degrees, the snow is going to stick, and turn the landscape into a winter wonderland, all over again!

Boston has experienced countless late season snowstorms in the past, this time of year. In fact, we experienced a blizzard just four years ago on March 12th!  I remember growing up as a kid in Boston, remembering many snowstorms right around St. Patrick’s Day, as if winter is giving one more parting shot before spring takes over. We have also experienced snow in April on many occasions. It’s not as memorable because it typically melts so quickly. However, we had snow in Boston as recent as last April on the 15th, also the year before, and back to back storms in 2016. Who can ever forget the record setting historic April Fools’ Blizzard back in 1997! I also recall a fierce blizzard back in April 6th 0f 1982, when between one and two feet of powder blasted the region. It has happened in the past, and will happen again in the future!

Bottom line, each year is different. Some years, snow ends early leading to an early spring. While we saw accumulating snow in mid April last year, there was no snow in March, and spring actually arrived on time, with many days of pleasant weather. Though May was on the cool side last year, an incredibly hot June arrived, with Boston receiving 9 ninety degree days, which is six more than average, and set a record for the city. In fact, it ended up being the hottest June on record, which set the theme for summer.

As I mentioned last week, March is a volatile month! While winter cold is hanging on up north, spring warmth is gathering down south. Where these two air masses collide is when we see the most extreme weather events play out. Just this past weekend these two air masses clashed, with blizzard conditions across Minnesota, while devastating tornadoes ripped across Iowa. Expect more storms similar to this as we move deeper into March.

Last week atmospheric scientist Dr. Judah Cohen spoke of a possible Polar Vortex disruption, or even a Polar Vortex split. Such an event would bring the potential for late season arctic cold temperatures and the real threat of a major storm. While computer models have backed off a bit from this scenario, the threat remains on the table. As the Polar Vortex collapses, it will send pockets of cold air south into the lower latitudes, where we live. If one of these pockets settles over a region such as the Midwest or New England, it could make for some unstable weather patterns, which would include the potential for additional cold and late season snowfall. Even a stretched vortex is enough to bring colder weather back into our region, and could set the stage for additional snowfall. I am interested to see what Judah has to say when he updates his blog this evening!

It’s been very difficult to tell which teleconnection has been controlling the pattern this winter. For the most part, the Polar Vortex has been at record strong levels. This typically means a very warm winter here in New England. However, there has been times the vortex has stretched and elongated. This is conjunction with a strong ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) in the Pacific Ocean and a trough east of Hawaii (stormy), has been enough to allow for cold air to penetrate into New England. This pattern in the Pacific Ocean is called a negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). Without that, we may of experienced one of the warmest and least snowiest winters on record here in Boston. Instead, we are sitting at just above an average season, with 51.9″ of snow so far recorded at Logan Airport.

I can see a similar pattern continuing for the remainder of March. While we may believe winter is over at times, it may come back for an encore performance or two. Until the cold air source breaks apart in Canada, there will be a threat of snow this month.

With all that being said, you can’t stop the seasons from changing! We gain more daylight than any other month during March! With the increased solar radiation, it’s only natural you may see some early season spring flowers poking up through the ground such as crocuses and daffodils. These are hearty flowers, so even if we receive a late season snowstorm, they tend to bounce back quickly as soon as the snow melts and the warm sun hits them. Another early bloomer are the forsythia flower. This bright yellow flower seems to be the first blossom that signifies the start of spring. These typically begin to bloom around our area last week in March or first week in April. As the solar radiation increases, grass will begin to come alive after being dormant all winter. Grass typically turns green rather dramatically around here around April 10th.

By the time we reach May, it’s pretty much full on spring around here. Leaf out is the grand finally and typically happens by May 1st in Boston, but can be as late as mid to late May across interior locations, or even early June up north and across the higher terrain. Of course, there are always odd years that are colder or warmer. Back in 2012 leaf out occurred in early April, but as late as late May in the cold spring of 2019.  It’s much too early to think about starting the garden. On average, the last frost in Boston is around mid April, but not until mid May in the suburbs.

Now for your ski and snowboard forecast. Conditions were perfect for much of last week after two snowfalls. Unfortunately, the thaw made its way all the way up through ski country this past weekend. I will give this week a 6 out of 10 rating. We just can’t seem to pull together a string of good ski conditions this winter. You just have to be at the right place at the right time this winter. Nonetheless, after more rain and mild temperatures today and this evening, a sharp cold front will slice through the region, bringing much colder weather back into ski country for the majority of this week. As mentioned above, there is a chance at accumulating snow on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Right now, it appears as if southern resorts may join in on this event, as it appears to be more of a southern New England system. We’ll have to keep an eye on it, as there is still a chance it could track a bit further north to include central areas too. After this system passes, temperatures may briefly warm up late in the week. Another storm threatens the north country this weekend, with mixed precipitation or snow. This is highly dependent on whether a secondary storm forms to lock the cold air in. If it does, a fairly sizable storm may occur this weekend. Please monitor forecasts throughout the week if you have plans to travel north. Thereafter, there is potential for a more significant storm around mid March, if your plans bring you up north in that time frame.

Now time for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 1o. Somewhat inclement, with rapid changes. Watch for thickening overcast this afternoon. There may be a stray shower here & there, but it should remain dry. It will be mild, but not as warm as yesterday, with high temperatures in the mid 50’s.

A cold front will be tracking across New England this evening. This will bring a period of rain beginning sometime after dinnertime, and not ending until at or just after midnight. As we enter the warm sector again, watch for winds to become gusty out of the south, with gusts to between 30 and 40 mph. In addition, watch for a line of torrential downpours and possibly even a thunderstorm as a squall line crosses the area during mid evening. Watch for clearing and cooler weather to follow late tonight.

Tuesday will feature a good amount of sun along with some passing clouds. It will be on the windy side, with winds between 20 and 30 mph. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the upper 30’s across the higher terrain, to mid 40’s along the coastal plain.

Expect clear and cold weather Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 20’s.

A coastal storm forming along a frontal boundary will begin to track north on Wednesday. If the storm tracks far close enough, expect clouds to rapidly increase and rain to develop across the region during the afternoon. With plenty of cold air aloft, this rain will rapidly change to snow during the late afternoon. If the snow comes down hard enough, it may even make for a slippery evening commute. Definitely something to monitor over the next 24 hours. Snow may continue well into Wednesday night. As the sun sets, it will turn slightly colder, and snow may begin to accumulate especially on lawns and car tops. Right now, I am expecting between 1 and 3 inches in Boston. However, if the storm becomes stronger, there could be a strip of 3 to 6″ of wet snow. If it’s weaker, just a slushy inch or two. Heaviest amounts look to be focused just south of Boston at this time. Be prepared either way for some wintry travel!

The storm should be moving east before the morning commute on Thursday. It should be breezy with some sun for the balance of Thursday. Temperatures should be seasonable, with highs in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Whatever snow falls should be melted by days end.

There may be a brief warm up on Friday before the next system. I’m expecting early sun to be followed by increasing afternoon clouds. Temperatures may warm up into the low 50’s , depending upon how much sun we see.

Another rather complex storm system will be approaching the region this weekend. This storm will have cold air diving down on the western side of it. If a secondary storm forms south of New England in time, it may lock in enough cold for areas especially north and west of Boston to see another round of accumulating snowfall. As mentioned in the ski report, ski resorts and higher elevation areas up north may receive a good sized snowstorm out of this, maybe 6″ plus. This storm will have to monitored for the Boston area as well, as there is some indications a secondary storm may bring a rain turning to snow event even closer to the coast. As colder air works into the system, snow may persist into Saturday night even into early Sunday. After this storm moves out, windy and colder weather will arrive on Sunday, setting the stage for possibly yet an even larger storm potential sometime next week. As you can see, winter is not quite over just yet!

*Don’t forget to “spring forward” this Saturday night, as we set the clocks forward one hour! Sunset Next Sunday evening will be at 6:48 PM!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a brief spring outlook. I typically concentrate on winter and summer seasonal outlooks, but I often also give a brief preview on what to expect during this transitional season. I will also have a new ski and snowboarding forecast. In addition, tune back in to catch my forecast for that potential storm next week…it could be that last significant storm I have been talking about. In the meantime, get ready for some March Madness in our weather patterns!

Thanks for reading & keep safe!

Pete

Here Comes March! 2/28/22

Hello! Welcome to the last day of meteorological winter! Tomorrow marks the first day of meteorological spring! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a wintry one for sure! After Friday’s storm, Saturday dawned with bright sunshine, deep blue skies, which accented the brilliant white snowfall. It was cold, but with light winds, the afternoon felt comfortable, despite temperatures never making it to freezing. Sunday was equally sunny, however temperatures were a good 10 degrees warmer than Saturday. With the late February sun, snow began to melt off from driveways and sidewalks. An arctic cold front charged through the area Sunday evening, bringing with it some heavy snow squalls which left a quick 1/2″ of snow to many communities. Temperatures are a good 10 to 15 degrees colder today, with a biting wind at times. Overall, it was a great weekend to get out and enjoy winter activities such as skiing, snowboarding, snow shoeing or taking a winter hike!

Friday featured our 4th major snowstorm of the season here in Boston. Snow came in like gangbusters Friday morning, with up to 2″ per hour snows falling for several hours in a row. After the initial burst, snow changed to sleet and snizzle (frozen drizzle / tiny snow grains) for a few hours. As winds turned more northerly, this mixed precipitation changed back to snow during the afternoon, with additional light accumulations into the evening. Overall, many cities and towns received between 7 and 11″ of snow from the Mass Pike points north. Logan Airport measured a respectable 8.5″ while I measured 8″ here where I live in West Roxbury. The bulk of the accumulation occurred in the heavy burst of snow early in the morning with 6.5″ falling. Lighter snow & sleet measured another inch and a half into the evening giving me the total I came up with.

However, this continues the trend this winter of Logan Airport receiving more snow than western parts of the city further away from the ocean. With this storm, Boston has exceeded its annual snowfall, and is now up to 51.9″ for the season. This is some 4″ above the total seasonal average… and we’re not done yet. Contrary to that, I have measured 47.5″ here in West Roxbury. Typically, the exact opposite occurs. Even more unusual, Boston has received more snow than Worcester so far this year, which hasn’t happened in some 50 years! There’s still a ways to go. With Worcester being 1000 ft up in elevation, and 50 miles from the ocean, they could easily still come out on top with a few late season snowstorms.

So what exactly do they mean when they say meteorological winter ends today. Well, climatologists and meteorologists classify the seasons into four distinct quarters. This makes it easier for statistics & record keeping. It’s also a good reason to give people hope & optimism that real astronomical spring is right around the corner! Often times, Mother Nature does not abide by these regulations. It’s not uncommon for our region to continue seeing snowstorms right up until the spring equinox on March 20th. Even after, there have been countless spring snowstorms, even blizzards in Boston, right up until April 10th. I would say anytime after mid April, snow is tougher to come by in Boston, but is still not completely out of the question until after May 10th.

If winter were to end toady, I would say it was quite a volatile winter across southern New England. For Boston, it was both a snowy and mild winter at the same time. While December & February both featured above average temperatures, January was below average for the first time in 4 years. I do not have the final numbers yet, but I’m fairly confident the two above normal months are going to outweigh the below normal month of January, leading to a winter that featured slightly above average temperatures.

For Boston, it was the snowiest winter since 2017-18, when 59″ of snow fell. It’s also the first time the city has received above average snowfall, since the 2017-18 winter. In some ways, this winter reminds me quite a bit of the 2017-18 winter. A blizzard in January, and then a ferocious March. It was most unusual, due to the fact Boston reached or eclipsed 60 degrees a whopping 10 times this winter! Spring fever gripped the city just last Wednesday, when temperatures soared to a record high of 69 degrees, only to plummet some 35 degrees the following day, and a major snowstorm the day after that on Friday! I will have my winter review and winter forecast grade sometime in late April, as late season storms are still possible.

It was also a most unusual winter, as some are calling it a Denver to Boston winter! I’m very grateful for my good friends from Denver Will & Brett tweeting me statistics and state of the art weather graphics on impending storms heading towards New England! The information is invaluable! There are many other local amateur meteorologists I network with on Twitter that are incredibly talented, and have a bright future in the field of meteorology. There are too many friends and associates to list right here in the blog at this time. I am exceptionally grateful for your likes and comments after reading the blog. I see you, I know who you are, and the respect is mutual!

After the two cities experienced a very slow start to the snow season, both cities have rallied with impressive snowfall accumulations here in January and February. I’m not sure what the exact total is in Denver International Airport, but I do know amounts vary greatly from the airport to surrounding areas as does Boston. Perhaps Will or Brett can give me a better idea on where Denver stands with their seasonal snowfall so far this season? With all that being said, here’s the difference between the two cities. Denver’s snowy season doesn’t get started until March & April, and sometimes May too! While the cities may be close right now, Denver typically cashes in with spring snowstorms!

While it seemed like it snowed a lot this February, the monthly average only ended up being about an inch above normal. Boston finished with 15.1″ of snow this February. After all of the wild temperature swings, the month actually ended up close to 2 degrees above average! It seemed colder than that, but the incredibly high spikes in temperatures made the month warmer than average. This was well forecasted at the beginning of the month.

As I mentioned earlier, we are only at February 28th. It’s still early. With that being said, there is reason for optimism if you enjoy warmer weather. March can be an extremely volatile month here in Boston. Based upon what we’ve seen so far this winter, I would expect nothing less than that this month. Back in the winter of 2017-18, Boston received 24″ of snow in March, with two snowstorms and one blizzard!

On average, Boston receives about 9″ of snow in March. The most was 38.9″ back in 1993, while the least was 0″ set just last year! In fact, the year before that we only received .5″! March can feature spikes of real springlike weather with temperatures in the 60’s and even 70’s, only to be followed by wintertime cold and fierce snowstorms. Back in 2012, March was more like summer! We experienced an entire week with temperatures in the mid 80’s! People were flocking to the beach on St Patrick’s Day. I remember that March, and said to myself, we are going to pay for this weather dearly for years to come. Sure enough the following March featured a blizzard with up to 2 ft of wet snow falling during the same time period!

Bottom line, if you enjoy steady calm weather, March is not the month for you! March is fickle, and can change from day to day, even from morning to afternoon. The morning may begin with heavy snow, and end up with sunny skies and melting snow in the afternoon. Many will enjoy the increasing sun angle in March. The sun feels warmer because it’s solar radiation is directed straight towards us, instead of at an angle.The days are getting longer too. On March 13th, we “spring ahead” and move the clocks forward one hour. At that point, our sunsets will be close to 7:00 PM. When we reach the equinox on March 20th, our days and nights will be of equal time of 12 hours. From that point forward, the days will continue to lengthen until we reach the summer solstice on June 20th. By that point, we will be in our summer attire, and enjoying outdoor summer activities!

Pretty straight forward, right? My post feels like March weather right now, all over the place! In a perfect world, we warm up accordingly, and be done with winter by the 20th of March. While I can see some warm weather coming up this March, I am also see indications of periods wintry weather. Judah Cohen tweeted out yesterday that there are indications of a Polar Vortex split. If this indeed occurs, it could make for a late season charge of cold and snow for the second half of March. If the Greenland Block develops, we could be looking at a delayed spring here in New England, with bouts of wintry weather extending into April this year. While all this is happening, early season heat will be building across the south. This could lead to an epic seasonal clash of the air masses, throwing everything in Mother Nature’s arsenal at us from early season warm weather, severe thunderstorms, to severe cold and blizzards!

For us here in New England, I would say buckle up, and be prepared for a wild month of March! At this point, I can see everything I just mentioned hitting us at one point or another this month. In the end, I’m expecting above average snow in Boston, with at least one good snowstorm, and several smaller ones. I’m expecting a very wet March this year, with plenty of storms traversing the country passing close to New England. With temperatures oscillating between warm & cold, it’s difficult to say where our temperatures will end up. Climate Prediction Center is calling for above average temperatures this month for much of the eastern part of the U.S. including us in New England. Let’s call for above average when all is said and done, but not by too much. Lot’s of ups and downs.

Ski resorts received all snow last Friday, with many mountains receiving between 8 and 12″ of snow, just in time for the weekend. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. I’m expecting improving ski conditions this March, with above average natural snow falling, leading to some great late season ski conditions. Watch for two chances for snow this week, one tomorrow night, when a few inches may fall. Then another on Wednesday night into Thursday, when many places may receive 3 to 6″ of snow. Another storm may threaten this weekend, but it’s too early to tell whether it will be frozen, liquid, or a mixture of both. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs mainly in the 30’s and lower 40’s, but may drop into the 20’s on Thursday after the storm passes through.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect lots of sunshine for the remainder of your Monday afternoon. It will be on the cold side, with highs mainly in the upper 20’s. This is quite cold for the end of February.

Watch for mainly clear and cold weather to continue tonight, with lows in the teens and 20’s.

Tuesday will feature early sun, followed by increasing clouds. It should be mainly overcast by days end. Temperatures will be milder, with highs near 40. I am not expecting any precipitation tomorrow. Welcome to March! Looks like March will be coming in like a lamb this year.

A weak storm will be passing through northern New England tomorrow night. There will be periods of light snow across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, with 1 to 3″ of accumulation, most in higher terrain. Down here in the Boston area, we can expect a few periods of mixed rain and snow showers, actually trending towards more rain showers overnight. Whatever happens, this is not going to be a major storm, just a weak clipper type system tracking through New England. Boston may actually end up in the warm sector of the weak storm, thus more rain than snow showers in our area. Any snow should be confined to central Massachusetts and higher terrain of Worcester County.

Wednesday should be a day in between systems. After some morning damp weather, the afternoon should feature some breaks of sun, with high temperatures reaching the lower 40’s around Boston.

Another clipper type storm will be traversing the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This one is somewhat more interesting for us here in southern New England. As this storm approaches, it may transfer its energy to a secondary storm off our coast. If the transfer happens quick enough, and it suddenly strengthens, some areas may receive a surprise snowfall. This storm has more upper level support, with a pocket of cold air associated with it. Right now, areas north of Rt 2 extending up into New Hampshire, may see a quick 3 to 6″ snowfall with slippery travel conditions early Thursday morning. Down here in Boston and closer to the coast, it looks like mainly a light snow event, with rain changing to a quick burst of snow late Wednesday night Thursday morning. Right now, it looks like a general 1 to 3″ snow, but could also trend less if the storm is too slow to develop or it’s just too warm. Later Thursday, watch for colder weather to move back in for Thursday night into Friday, with dry conditions.

Watch for moderating temperatures this weekend. After a mainly dry Saturday, a storm will be approaching for Saturday night and Sunday. If there’s enough cold air left, it may begin as some wet snow or sleet, but this should transition over to plain rain heading into Sunday here along the coast, with little to no accumulations. Depending on the track of the storm, this could be a different story up north, with snow or mixed precipitation.

Don’t believe anything you hear about winter is over, or spring is cancelled. This is a fast moving pattern, with many changes ahead with both winter and springlike weather. It’s going to be fun observing all the changes headed our way!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a spring preview of our weather patterns over the next three months. I will also let you know if I see any major storms on our horizon. In addition, I will continue with our ski a& snow boarding forecasts straight through March, or until the season ends. In the meantime, perhaps March come in like a lamb, and goes out like a lion this year? Anything is possible!

Keep safe & thanks for reading!

Pete

False Spring Warning! 2/21/22

Hello! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! The weather patterns have been volatile, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. It was just a week ago today the Boston area was shoveling out from between 6 and 9″ of snow. A midweek thaw wiped all of that snow away, only to turn blustery and colder last Friday. The weather over the weekend was interesting, as early morning sunshine on Saturday quickly faded away to afternoon snow squalls which raced across the region. These squalls were quick but intense, leading to quick bursts of heavy snow & sudden whiteout conditions across the region. After the squalls moved through, arctic air made for a very cold Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The cold eased somewhat Sunday afternoon, but a pesky wind made it feel much colder than what it actually was.

It’s about this time of year many folks start becoming very anxious for springs arrival. This year is no exception! Though it hasn’t been a particularly harsh winter, the period beginning just after the new year until mid February has featured some of our most wintry weather conditions in several years here in Boston. A sudden surge of warm weather last week had people dreaming of daffodils blooming, and spring birds greeting you in the morning! Indeed, we are now less than 30 days away from the spring vernal equinox!

I like to think of it as the same time of year as August 21st. At that time of year, the angle of the sun is beginning to slowly wane, nights begin to cool, and you may even begin to see a few trees changing color! All subtle signs of fall. However, you know summer is not over, just yet! In fact summer has lingered well into September, even into mid October past several years. It still can get very hot, and the humidity can be relentless right up until Labor Day and sometimes beyond!

So here we are, February 21st. No doubt the days are getting longer, and the sun angle is increasingly moving up higher in the sky. People have been posting crocuses and witch hazel beginning to bloom across the region. We had a record high temperature of 61 degrees last Thursday in Boston, and spring fever took over the city! If that wasn’t enough, temperatures are going to be very mild the first few days of this week, culminating with temperatures which may approach 70 degrees on Wednesday, depending if we receive enough sun!

Boston meteorologist Eric Fisher tweeted out an amazing stat last week showing how Boston has reached 60 degrees an astounding 9 times so far since December 1st. Add another one this week, and that will make 10! Growing up in Boston and studying our climate, it was a very rare occurrence Boston would reach 60 degrees once during winter, never mind an outrageous 10 times! We are living in warmer times right now, there’s no denying it.

Yet, we are also living in snowier times! Over the years, Boston’s average seasonal snowfall has increased from 43″ to 48″. Despite the warm spikes this winter, we’ve also had several cold snaps, especially in January and first half of February. A cold finish to this month may actually bring the winter much closer to average than one would think. While it hasn’t been exceptionally snowy, Boston is primed to at least reach average snowfall this winter, and most likely finish with above average snow. It may not of seemed too severe due to the fact the snow pack melted after nearly every storm this winter. For Boston, this is quite normal. Being a coastal city, the Atlantic Ocean modifies the climate, melting the snow more quickly than inland locations. In many years, you do not have to travel too far north and west of Boston to see snow on the ground much of the winter.

However, this is not always the case! With Boston positioned at just over 42 degrees north latitude, our winters can vary widely from something similar to Washington D.C., to severe winters as they receive in southern Canada. Though not every year, the snow pack can persist, as one snow falls on top of the other, and lasting throughout the entire winter, with brief thaws. We have seen these winters before in the past such as 2014-15, 2013-14, 2010-11, 2004-05, 2002-03, 1995-96, 1993-94 to name a few, all featured deep snow packs for several weeks at a time. Looking at the intervals of these years, it would appear Boston is due for a severe winter sometime soon…maybe in the next one to two years?

For this week, I am issuing a false spring warning! It’s much too soon to believe this weather is sustainable! The surge of warm weather arriving early this week will be equally met with sharply colder weather and a potential winter storm to close out the week. I know this is disheartening news for some, but we are still firmly in the grips of mid winter weather patterns. In fact, long range outlooks are showing a cold & potentially stormy first 10 days to March this year. So even after the late week storm threat, there may be others to monitor to begin March.

Current indications are showing a strongly negative EPO developing to begin March. This is a teleconnection meteorologists and weather enthusiasts monitor during winter. EPO stands for Eastern Pacific Oscillation, and is when a trough (cold & stormy) develops east of Hawaii, while a ridge (warm & dry) builds up into Alaska. When this occurs, it teleconnects to cold & stormy weather for us here in New England.

One other thing to watch is the Polar Vortex. Atmospheric scientist Judah Cohen continues to monitor the late season trends of the Polar Vortex. Overall, the Polar Vortex has been very strong this winter. As I have mentioned in past posts, a strong Polar Vortex typically teleconnects to warm winters here in New England. A weak Polar Vortex allows the cold air to spread out, extending down into the mid latitudes where we live. However, this winter, the vortex has been elongated, and stretched at times into New England, bring us periods of arctic cold weather. It appears as if there is going to be another stretched Polar Vortex event to start March. Keeping all this in mind, March is likely to come in like a lion here in New England this year!

Make no mistake about it, March is a tricky month! March is a predominately winter month here in New England! Occasionally, Mother Nature will send us a treat, and feature early spring weather and hardly any snow. This was the case just last year. This occurs once or twice every 10 years or so. Most years, March features volatile weather patterns. As the seasons begin to change, warm air begins to build across the southern tier of the U.S. while very cold air continues across the north. When these two air masses clash, anything from severe weather to ferocious blizzards can occur. This upcoming March looks to feature all of this! I will have my March outlook posted next week.

For my friends who look forward to spring, there’s reason for optimism! As I mentioned above, spring is now less than 30 days away! From this point forward, we are gaining over 3 minutes of daylight per day. On March 13th, we “spring ahead” and move the clocks forward one hour. At that time, sunsets will occur at 7:00 PM. If you haven’t seen any yet, you may see some crocuses poking up through the ground by Wednesday. These hardy little flowers are the first to emerge this time of year or early March, and can withstand late season snowfalls. There’s also witch hazel, which is a small yellow flower which is also called winter bloom, can often times be seen this time of year. These are just the first very early signs of spring. The ever popular tiny “peeper” frogs do not begin peeping until sometime later in March, or when the nights turn warm.

The lack of snow in ski country this winter has been a big disappointment. The thaw we received last week was devastating right before the holiday weekend, which went all the way up into ski country. With that being said, colder temperatures rushed back into ski country on Friday, along with snow squalls. Ski resorts were able to blast the snow guns at full strength, and were able to salvage decent conditions for the weekend. Another ill timed thaw and rain event will be arriving on Tuesday night, leading to more melting snow and icy conditions. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday night bringing much colder weather to ski country on Thursday and right through the upcoming weekend. In addition, a storm will be approaching New England Thursday night through Friday. This storm will bring a widespread snowfall to much of ski country during this period. At this point, I am expecting between 7 and 11″ of snow to fall across many resorts and northern New England this Friday. This should set up great ski conditions for this upcoming weekend. Overall, I would rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily towards the upcoming weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect a beautiful late February day, with deep blue skies, plenty of sunshine, and light winds. Temperatures will respond, reaching the low 50’s in many communities.

Look for clouds to be on the increase overnight, but I am not expecting any precipitation.  Temperatures will be chilly, but milder than recent nights, with lows dropping into the 20’s and 30’s, of course coldest in rural areas.

Watch for increasing clouds for your Tuesday. A storm will be approaching and tracking to our northwest during the day. Rain will be developing from southwest to northeast later in the day, reaching the Boston area by late afternoon. It will continue to be mild, with highs in the 50’s.

Expect a rainy night across much of New England tomorrow night, even up north. While winds may be breezy, I’m not expecting any damaging gusts this tie around. Low temperatures will remain in the 40’s much of the night.

As the storm pulls away from New England up the St. Lawrence River Valley, expect a southwest flow to remain in place during Wednesday. Many communities will once again warm up into the low to mid 60’s! However, if the clouds erode quickly, and we see enough sun, there’s a distinct possibility some cities and towns reach or even eclipse 70 degrees! I have seen the models under forecast the level of warming many times in the past, so I would say that this is a real possibility!  Get out and enjoy! You’re not going to like the rest of the forecast unless you are a winter weather enthusiast!

A sharp cold front will slice through New England Wednesday night, ending the spring fever across the region. When you wake up on Thursday, temperatures are going to be a good 30 degrees colder than Wednesday! Expect temperatures to remain steady or even slowly drop through the day. You will also notice increasing high clouds during the afternoon, giving the sky a decidedly more wintry look by days end.

A storm approaching from the Tennessee Valley will bring thickening clouds Thursday night. Snow may develop across much of Massachusetts by daybreak Friday, leading to a treacherous commute on Friday morning.

While it should remain cold enough for all snow north of the Massachusetts border on Friday, the same can not be said around Boston and along the coast. A complex storm will be tracking towards New York state. Meanwhile, strong cold high pressure will be anchored across Quebec on Friday. An initial burst of snow in Boston will most likely transition to sleet and perhaps even worse…freezing rain during the day. This is due to warm air overriding the shallow cold air at the surface.

As the primary low pressure weakens, a new low pressure will develop near New Jersey, and track northeast, passing just south of Cape Cod. Depending upon the exact track of the storm, the trend may be slightly warmer. If the storm tracks slightly further south, the trend would be colder, with more sleet and snow. If further north, closer to the coast, the precipitation would fall first as snow, then change to sleet and freezing rain. If the coast warms up, it may even change to plain rain within 5 or 10 miles of the coastline. If the secondary low pressure takes over more quickly, a colder scenario may play out, resulting in more snow.

This is a very tricky forecast across the Boston area. Computer models are shifting the storm north then south every model run. Right now, I would plan for a wintry day in Boston, with several inches of snow, mixing with sleet and freezing rain. As the storm tracks east, north winds may change the mixed precipitation back to snow later in the day before slowly ending Friday night. If we were to remain all snow, the potential is there for a 7 to 10″ snowfall in Boston Friday. At this point, I am expecting enough warm air to override the cold air at the surface to result in a wintry mix of precipitation in Boston for at least part of the storm. Which is no picnic either!

I will be monitoring the storm all week, and most likely post an update sometime on Thursday with the latest track. If I do post, then I felt that conditions warranted an update on the storm for something significant.

In it’s wake, I am expecting fair and cold weather on Saturday, with highs mainly in the 20’s. Yet another storm may be approaching our region on Sunday with increasing clouds, and a chance for snow Sunday night. Not too sure about that one, as computer models need to resolve the track of the first one, first!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a review for February and the three months which constitute winter, as well as my preview for the month of March. I will also discuss the possibility of one more major storm the first 10 days of March. I will also have a new ski and snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the spring tease this week, just don’t say nobody warned you that winter was coming back!

~Happy Birthday to my niece Nicole! (February 22nd)~

Thanks for reading & stay safe!

Pete

Snow Is Over…For Now! 2/14/22

Hello! Happy Valentine’s Day, to all! It was a classic New England weather weekend straight from the famous quote by poet Mark Twain “If you don’t like the weather in New England, just wait a few minutes, and it will change!” Saturday many folks came down with a case of spring fever, when temperatures soared to a record breaking 60 degrees, with plenty of sun to boot! There was some talk of snow for Sunday, but most forecasts called for only a dusting to an inch. Ah yes, the old dusting to an inch forecast! It always seems when forecasts are incorrect for amounts being to low, it starts with a dusting to an inch!

As we went to sleep on Saturday night, dreaming of spring days, birds singing and taking long walks in the park, a seemingly innocent cold front slipped through the region around midnight. Much to many folks surprise, including myself, awoke to steady snow falling and already the landscape was painted white! I knew it was going to be snowing in the morning, but I did not expect the intensity in which it arrived. Snow continued to fall light to moderate at times throughout the entire day. It lightened up a it early afternoon, only to slowly pick up in intensity once again as we approached evening. It then snowed steadily overnight even into this early morning as snow showers lingered along the coast until around 10:00 AM. When all was said and done a general 7 to 10″ of fluffy snow accumulated in many of the same areas hit by the blizzard two weeks ago!

I’m not here to place blame on meteorologists…it was a very unusual set up which resulted in the unexpected fluffy snowfall. Still, there must be some accountability! You can’t always just blame the computer models! Many were caught off guard with the accumulating snow after such a warm day! I could see there was the potential of a storm written in my post a week ago today. However, as the week wore on, it became apparent that the thrust of the storm was going to go out to sea. But that was only the beginning of the story!

In a rare set up, the cold front that slipped through our region Saturday night, suddenly slowed down as it cleared the New England coast. This allowed moisture to blossom along the front, and streak up the coast from the mid Atlantic region, right up along the I95 corridor into Boston. In addition, as the storm headed slowly out to sea, it left behind a trough of low pressure, where two air masses converged across Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, also known as a NorLun trough.

In addition, winds turned northeasterly along the coast, which further enhanced snowfall as ocean effect bands of snow developed, leading to some communities along the South Shore measuring up to 10″ of snow! Wow, what a winter it has turned out to be for folks living in South Shore towns south of Boston! Some cities and towns measuring close to 10″ of snow was Marshfield, Norton, and Providence, Rhode Island to name a few. I also don’t want to forget my friends on the North Shore of Boston including the city of Gloucester, where weatherman Peter Lovasco has reported in with 46.1″ of snow so far this winter!

Nobody predicted this amount of snow…but there were a few who caught it! Amazingly, some amateur weather forecasters I follow on Twitter accurately predicted the surprise snowstorm! In addition, long time forecaster and Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal picked up the potential, and accurately predicted a moderate snowstorm coming to Boston, when others did not! Congrats to Mark!

With the recent snowfall, the Boston area is rapidly approaching seasonal averages. Logan Airport averages approximately 48″ of snow per season according to the new climatology cycles. Many South Shore communities have exceeded seasonal averages already, and there’s still a good 5 to 6 weeks left to the snow season! Boston received approximately 6″ of new snow, bringing the season up to 43″. My winter forecast called for between 50 and 60″ of snow in Boston this winter. I’m not going to say it’s a slam dunk, as the snow season can abruptly stop at any time without warning, but I would be surprised if we didn’t receive at least another 7″ of snow this winter in Boston. So far, the winter forecast is working out according to plan. Temperatures may of been a bit too cold, but snowfall prediction looks good up to this point.

Is everyone tired of the snow & cold? I for one am not! As many of my friends and family know, I am a winter weather enthusiast! I do love the warm summer season too, but winter is my favorite season by far! When chatting with folks about our weather & climate, I can usually get most people to admit they do enjoy a good storm or two in winter…but that’s about it! They do not enjoy the long winter months and continuation of persistent cold and snow! Fortunately for them, this winter has not been like that!

Yes, we had our share of cold and snow in January…but what about the snowless, mild December? It’s been on the wintry side for the first two weeks of February, but what about the mild spell after the blizzard, and the record warm high temperature this past Saturday? In the midst of a somewhat snowy & cold winter, Mother Nature appeals to all!

For those who enjoy mild temperatures in winter, I have some good news to share to you. No, winter is not over! We still have the rest of February , and at least the first three weeks of March to get through before we can officially say winter is over. Even then, Boston has seen its share of April snowstorms and even blizzards over the years. Who could ever forget the April Fools’ Blizzard back in 1997, when the Boston area received a whopping 2 to 3 feet of heavy wet snow!

However, as in most winters, there always seems to be an extended break to the harsh cold and heavy snowfalls coming. Some people call it a thaw. As early as this Thursday, temperatures may once again soar up to record high temperatures! This time, I do not see a snowstorm following the springlike weather later this week. Rather, there will be a brief cool down coming up this weekend and into the very beginning of next week, only to warm up all over again as we head towards the end of February. Could it be a taste of early spring? Yes, the potential is there for temperatures to warm up into the 40’s and 50’s perhaps even touch 60 degrees once or twice over the course of the next 10 to 14 days. It will not be warm every day, but the trend is for more warm days than cold.

With the increasing sun angle, it will feel that much warmer when the sun is out! I wouldn’t be surprised to hear spring song birds begin to sing, and crocuses begin to poke through the ground. All these things are encouraging signs for folks looking forward to spring!

So this begs the question, is this a false spring, or the real deal? Well, as I mentioned in my winter forecast, La Nina’s are fickle. Winter patterns are volatile, ranging from cold & snowy, to mild and tranquil. Before you break out the shorts & flip flops, I believe we have one more oscillation to get through before we can officially say it’s real spring. After this warm period, I believe we are going to see one more serious attack from winter, sometime in the first 10 days of March. Atmospheric scientist Dr. Judah Cohen is seeing signs that the Polar Vortex may become elongated once again, leading to another cold period and possible snow before it retreats for the season. This could set the stage for a stormy start to March, with more cold weather & heavy snowfalls.

The other wildcard is some computer models are showing a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurring sometime in early March. If this does come to fruition, it could disrupt the Polar Vortex, or even split it into several lobes. This cloud have major implications on our spring patterns this year. It may only mean a cold & wet April for us here in the Boston area, but it may be cold enough for heavy snowfalls in northern New England to continue later in March and into April. This is only speculation at this point. There are some computer models saying winter is done, and a very warm March is on the way. For the record, I do not believe in these computer models. I will continue to monitor these teleconnections and update everyone as we move closer towards March. Eventually spring will win out, but as always, it may be an adventure getting there!

Unfortunately, much of ski country once again missed the recent snowfall around Boston. It now looks like another warm up and rain is coming later this week to add salt to the wound. So far, northern New England can’t seem to get into a good rhythm this winter. It’s not over yet, it may be a late blossoming winter, with plenty of snow in March & April this year. Many resorts have been able to make snow, and still have natural snow left over from the storm last weekend. For this week, I will give it a 6 out of 10. I don’t see much natural snow this week, though ski areas can make plenty of snow over the next couple days. Be prepared to take a hit of wind and rain later Thursday and Thursday night. Colder weather will move back into the resorts by Friday, along with the chance of some snow showers and squalls. It looks dry and seasonable for the upcoming weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10. Expect clear and cold weather tonight, with lows dropping into the single digits! Yikes!

Tuesday will bring another day with bright sunshine. It will remain on the cold side, but not as cold as today. Temperatures will warm up into the upper 20’s and low 30’s. With lighter winds, it will feel much nicer than today.

Expect another clear and very cold night tomorrow night. While not quite as cold as tonight, expect low temperatures to bottom out in the single digits across rural locations and teens in urban areas.

A warm front will be approaching New England on Wednesday. This means we may have more clouds in the sky, especially in the morning. By afternoon, there should be more sunshine with temperatures warming up into the 40’s!

If skies remain clear, you may see the full “Snow Moon” rising up in the sky Wednesday evening. Otherwise, expect generally dry weather with some increasing clouds. Temperatures are only expected to fall into the 30’s.

A strong storm system will be passing well to our northwest on later Thursday. As the storm tracks to our north, the pressure gradient will increase as the cold front approaches. Expect windy weather, along with rain developing from west to east as late afternoon approaches. With southerly winds, expect temperatures to soar up close to 60 degrees all over again!

Expect a stormy Thursday night, with rain and wind tracking across the region. Winds may gust as high as 40 to 50 mph around Boston, perhaps even stronger across the south coast and the Cape. There may even be a thunderstorm crossing the area at some point overnight.

When you wake up Friday morning, only snowbanks will remain from the blizzard we had back at the end of January. All the new snow we received yesterday will be completely gone. The cold front will have passed through, and temperatures will be much colder on Friday, with highs falling through the 30’s and eventually 20’s by the end of the day!

This weekend looks to feature dry and seasonable weather, with high temperatures mainly in the 30’s and lower 40’s. I am not anticipating any surprise storms or any precipitation for that matter this weekend!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a more in depth look into the prospects of winter returning during the beginning of March. I will also give a quick preview of our spring timetable and some things to look out for. You can also expect a new ski and snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, the snow may be over for now, but I can already hear the lion roaring for the start of March!

Wishing everyone a safe & Happy Valentine’s Day!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Cold fades…Storms Do Not! 2/7/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a classic mid winter weekend weather wise across the New England region. After last Friday’s messy storm, the weekend brought mainly sunny skies, but very cold temperatures! Saturday began with leftover clouds and even a few snow showers from the departing storm. Sunshine increased during the day, but temperatures rose only into the lower 20’s. Sunday remained cold, with abundant sunshine and lighter winds. All in all, it was a great winter weekend to enjoy outdoor winter activities such as downhill & cross country skiing, ice fishing, snow shoeing or taking a winter hike!

Well that what an interesting storm this past Friday! Precipitation type depended upon where you live, and was stacked up like a 5 layered cake across New England! There was so many different types of precipitation falling, color codes depicting the precipitation type on radar ran out of colors! There are just so many shades of pink you can use to depict ice!

This was a massive storm stretching from Mexico through the Midwest, up into New England, then all the way up to Newfoundland! Down here in southern New England, it never really turned into a snowstorm. In fact, half of the storm was rain when it began on Thursday. As the quasi stationary cold front sank through southern New England early Friday morning, temperatures began a steady downward trend throughout the day. Rain began freezing on contact during the morning. This lead to treacherous driving conditions around the Greater Boston area. Despite adequate warnings from local meteorologists, people continue to drive recklessly around the city, leading to unnecessary accidents.

As temperatures continued to cool aloft, freezing rain turned into ice pellets and sleet. Road crews were out in full force keeping up with the icy weather by dropping tons of rock salt on city streets and highways. If you ventured out to clean off the dusting of snow we received Friday night, you quickly realized it was going to take a lot longer than you first thought. Underneath that coating of snow was a quarter inch layer of ice that encased vehicles all across the city like an igloo!

Some people may think Boston does not receive too much freezing rain. This is not entirely true. Yes, it’s rare we see extended periods of freezing rain that glazes over everything in the city, then remain in tact for several days. Typically, freezing rain is a sign of warm air close by. What happens is cold air is heavier, more dense and settles near the ground like molasses. Meanwhile, warm air is lighter, less dense, and rides up over the cold air. If the warm air is deep enough, it will fall as plain rain towards the ground. However,  when it reaches the ground, it freezes upon contact, resulting in freezing rain! If the cold layer is thicker, the rain will freeze into pellets of ice called sleet. There are many storms Boston observes a transition from snow, to sleet and freezing rain, then to plain rain. We typically don’t see it because it’s normally a quick process along the coast, with warm air winning out changing the precipitation to plain rain fairly quickly.

However, there are exceptions! In certain meteorological conditions, the cold air is locked in along the coastal plain. This is called cold air damming, when low level cold air comes down from the Canadian Maritimes, and the Maine coast, then down into Boston. When this occurs, Boston can see significant ice storms! The last significant ice storm Boston received was on December 18th, 2017.

Boston is also know to experience flash freezes. A flash freeze occurs when a storm transitions from snow, to sleet, then warms up enough for plain rain. It may appear as if we’re in the clear, and no additional road treatments are necessary. However, as the storm pulls east of Boston, the wind can suddenly turn northerly. Temperatures can plummet into the 20’s within minutes, resulting in everything glazing over to a sheet of ice! If there’s enough moisture around, fine misty rain can switch to a period of wind blown snow making it look like the arctic tundra for a time! The last true flash freeze we experienced here in Boston was January 20th, 2019.

While all this freezing rain and sleet was occurring down here in southern New England, a skiers bonanza was happening up north. In a line from Killington, VT, to Plymouth N.H. including the White Mountains then up into interior Maine, many locations reported between 10 and 20″ of snow! By the way, coastal Maine did not get off easy, with up to 5″ of sleet falling in some communities! This was exactly what ski resorts needed, in an otherwise below average snow year so far. As I mentioned before, I believe ski resorts will enjoy an extended season this year, with cold & snow lingering deep into spring.

While it can snow in Boston anytime from November through April, the period we are in now is known in the weather community as “Prime Time” around here. From February 4th through the 14th on average, has statistically shown to have the best chance for a major snowstorm in Boston. Why is this? Well, we’re at the very bottom of the winter curve, when temperatures are at there lowest, giving us an optimal time for snow to occur. Ocean temperatures are cooling off fast now, and will be at their coldest from now through March. Weather patterns also are prime in this period, with the jet stream dipping down about as far as it can go into the United States. When bundles of energy can phase together at the right time, big storms can occur!

So it should be as no surprise Boston’s most severe winter storm occurred on February 6th and 7th forty four years ago! It is called the Blizzard of ’78 around here, and if you were alive to see it, you witnessed as storm like no other! As I have mentioned many times, there have been some big storms since, but none have yet, and probably will never, match the intensity of this severe winter storm.

Some asked me how Blizzard of ’78 compared to the blizzard we just experienced on January 29th. I do not want to make light of this storm, as many towns did receive prolific snowfall amounts, but you are basically comparing apples to oranges here. There was absolutely no comparison! There was only one Blizzard of ’78, and I doubt any of us will ever see such a monster storm in our lifetimes again here in Boston.

The Blizzard of’ ’78 was like winning the meteorology lottery. It was a historic storm for a reason. Everything aligned perfectly in the atmosphere to produce the storm. There were five factors that stand out from this storm that keeps this storm the leader from all the others.

First, the gigantic blocking arctic high pressure area anchored to the north of New England. Without this, there would be no historical storm. This high pressure was a block in the atmosphere, which slowed down the blizzard, and actually stalled it south of Block Island, allowing it to do the famed blizzard loop before it slowly drifted off out to sea. This kept the storm raging here in eastern Massachusetts for nearly two straight days.

Second, the astronomical high tides. There were 4 devastating high tide cycles which battered the coastline of Massachusetts with severe coastal flooding. Homes and businesses were destroyed, people needed to be rescued by boats by the Coast Guard, entire beach walls and barriers were completely destroyed.

Third, the ferocious hurricane force winds. As I mentioned above, there would be no historic storm without the blocking high pressure to our north. The pressure gradient between the high to the north , and low pressure to the south resulted in a fetch of northeast winds seen like no other storm along the coast. These winds not only increased the ferocious waves along the coast, but also whipped up incredible snow drifts up of to 10 ft high!

Fourth, the unprecedented relentless blizzard conditions and accumulations. I mentioned this in some of my tweets, and weather forums. It snowed heavily in last weeks blizzard in Boston for about 12 hours, producing 23.7″ of snow at Logan Airport. Not even this much fell in the western parts of the city. In ’78, it was a blizzard for three times longer than that, and only snowed 3.4″ more? This is my opinion is false! Boston’s Logan Airport only measured 27.1″ of snow? So many things could of gone wrong we just don’t know about. The observer may not of been able to get to the measurement site throughout the entire storm, therefore some data is missing? The wind was so strong, it blew half the snow away? Whatever happened, I can attest to you, snowfall in Boston’s southwest corner of the city of West Roxbury, Roslindale and Hyde Park were measured in feet! I have photos showing snow at least waist deep, so saying snow was more like 3 ft is not an elaboration. There were unofficial measurements in northern Rhode Island of 52″, which again. seeing that the storm stalled for two days, most likely is a real number. Areas just southwest of Boston were hardest hit due to the northeast fetch of wind coming in off the Atlantic Ocean, and intense bands of snow pinwheeling in off of the ocean for close to two days straight from the stalled storm. Orographic lifting as the wind and snow met higher elevations resulted in extremely heavy snowfall amounts.

Five, the stranded vehicles on Rt 128, resulting in deaths due to carbon monoxide poisoning. It’s the gruesome side of the blizzard, people perished along Rt 128, and from being stranded in the snow. It took the city a week to dig out from the blizzard, and up to three weeks to return things back to normal. In this past blizzard, people were back to work and school two days after. The advancements in technology and computer models used by meteorologists means this catastrophe is unlikely to happen again in our lifetime.

I would love to tell my own recollection of the blizzard some day when we have more time! This post was more to point out the severity of the storm. I am grateful that I was old enough to remember the storm in great detail! While I was fascinated with the weather before the blizzard, there’s no doubt The Great Blizzard of ’78 cemented my passion for my love of the weather!

With last Friday’s major snowstorm, ski conditions have dramatically improved! As reported earlier, many locations received between 10 and 20″ of natural snow. Another storm will bring 3 to 6″ of new snow overnight, but possibly up to 8″ in Maine. This week may be a great week for skiing and outdoor activities, as temperatures are expected to moderate to comfortable levels. I will give this week a 9 out of 10. More cold air is expected to arrive by Saturday, along with the chance of snow squalls.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will give this week an 8 out of 10. After early morning snow showers, expect milder temperatures to turn any frozen precipitation into rain drops this afternoon. There still may be some towns well north & west that remain close to 32 degrees this afternoon.

A coastal storm will track up the coast tonight, and bring with it a good slug of precipitation. For those who enjoy snow, it will simply be too warm to support any snow anywhere inside of I495, Even outside of I495, it will be marginal, and the upper levels of the atmosphere will be too warm to support snow. There may be some patch freezing rain in these locations at the very most. Otherwise, expect periods of rain tonight, some of which may fall heavily at times, with up to one inch of precipitation.

The further one lives or travels up into New Hampshire and Maine, the more wintry conditions you may encounter. It will be mostly a mixture of precipitation in lower elevations with little in the way of accumulation, though this may vary from town to town. This may be a different story in higher elevation of New Hampshire and Maine where 2 to 4″ will be common if not 3 to 6″ in the White Mountains, and possibly up to 8″ in higher elevations in Maine, such as Sunday River.

After a damp start with some showers, watch for sunny breaks to develop tomorrow afternoon with mild temperatures. If we receive enough sun, temperatures may reach the low 40’s.

Expect generally fair and mild weather for the period Wednesday through Friday. It will be on the mild side as well, with highs mainly in the 40’s. If you have any remaining snow pack, most of it aside from snowbanks will be gone by later Friday. Some guidance is saying the warmer than normal temperatures are only going to increase as we head past mid February. I know this is music to some of my friends ears! I was expecting a milder than normal February, so this does not come as too much of a surprise to me.

A cold front will be approaching the region on Saturday. There may be some flurries or showers as it passes through, but steady precipitation is not expected at this time. It will still be on the mild side, with temperatures turning colder Saturday night.

Sunday looks fair and noticeably colder at this point. High temperatures should be around 10 degrees colder than Saturday, which means the mid 30’s. There may be increasing high clouds come Sunday afternoon.

A storm will need to be monitored for Valentine’s Day. As mentioned earlier, this is real prime time for storms in Boston. Valentine’s Day is notorious for producing large winter storms. It’s the same scenario as previous storms, if northern jet stream can phase with the southern jet stream, a major winter storm is possible a week from today. If they remain separate, the benign weather pattern will continue with no storm. Looking at long range guidance, there will be enough cold air in place to support snow, though the track and strength of the storm could make differences. Will just monitor for now, but just wanted to let everyone know the potential is there. If conditions warrant, I will update everyone sometime next weekend. It may be our last chance for a storm in February. We shall see.

Well, that’s about it for now! I hope everyone enjoyed my discussion about the Blizzard of ’78! In next week’s blog, I will take a look at the weather patterns for the remainder of February, and take a look at the spring timeline as we head into March. Hard to believe we are already headed towards spring! I will also have a new ski and snowboarding forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the milder temperatures this week…there could be a Valentine’s Day storm to watch!

Stay safe & warm, friends!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

One Good Storm…Deserves Another? 1/31/22

Hello! Happy last day of January! I hope everyone their weekend! For us here in New England, it was hunkering down inside while a full fledged blizzard battered the region on Saturday! For those who ventured out, they quickly learned why it’s best to just stay indoors until the storm lets up! Sunday was the complete opposite, with deep snow, blue bird skies, but still bitterly cold! Wow, was yesterday breathtaking! It’s been a while since we have seen snow this deep across the Boston area, with brilliant sunshine reflecting off the pure white landscape. It sure was bitterly cold yesterday, but to me, it was so refreshing!

Oh wow, this storm did not disappoint! I struggled a bit with the forecast, but in the end, I believe it worked out quite well! As always, there are towns that do better with how much snow falls, than others! Overall, the areas that I targeted to receive the most snowfall, certainly did! Getting accurate accumulations was particularly difficult in this storm, due to the 50 mph winds that blew and drifted the snow into huge snowdrifts. In some cases, you were staring at an inch of snow with grass poking through, to drifts of up to 3 or 4 ft just 20 ft away!

Even myself, who has been measuring snow since I was a kid, struggled! I can’t imagine what it must be like for folks who grab a ruler and say, ‘they’re heading out to measure the snow’ for the first time! Believe it or not, there is quite a process that goes into measuring snow! Now, when we receive snowfalls with calm winds, it can fairly straightforward. However, storms like Saturday pose a significant challenge to come up with accurate figures!

Typically, inland parts of the city such as West Roxbury, western Brookline, Chestnut Hill areas receive a bit more snow than what Logan Airport, South Boston and Dorchester receives. This is because West Roxbury is a bit further inland away from the ocean, and the elevation is slightly higher than at sea level. However, in this storm, it was reversed! This was a true coastal blizzard, where areas that were closest to the ocean received the most snow! In the end, it all came down where the extreme band of snow developed and stalled for several hours on Saturday. This band was oriented northeast to southwest, running parallel to the Massachusetts coastline from Gloucester, Beverly, Swampscott, right down through Boston’s Logan Airport, South Boston, Dorchester and Quincy.

The band continued south in towns that were along and east of I95 in towns like Canton, Sharon, Stoughton, Easton, Brockton/Bridgewater area. Other areas included nearly the entire south shore in towns like Hanson, Hanover, Rockland, Norwell, Scituate, Abbington, Plymouth and Lakeville. I could list more, but you get the idea! In these areas, snowfall rates ranged from between 2 and 4″ per hour for approximately 6 hours! This is why these areas received between 24 and 30″ of snow!

Don’t feel bad for me! The band oscillated through West Roxbury area, points north & west several times with very heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions! While the band was not fully over my area, we still managed to receive approximately 18 to 20″ of wind drifted snow! I took a ride to my store yesterday in Hyde Park, and noticed that they may of received a few inches more, as they were closer to the stationary band. We may of been in a slight subsidence zone, where air sinks and dries, instead of rising and condensing. It’s much more complex than that, but that is my theory.

My trusty weather observers up along the New Hampshire seacoast (my sister Pam & brother in law Michael) reported heavy snow and winds pretty much all day. They too did not enter the extreme heavy snow band, but Michael reported to me approximately 14 to 18″ of snowfall.

As expected, friends down the Cape reported a wicked storm, with heavy wet snow falling, whipped by hurricane force wind gusts! This combination resulted in widespread power outages. As the storm pulled off to the east, colder air filtered onto the area, resulting in a less dense, powdery snow. Many on the Cape received between 12 and 22″ of snow. Quite the storm for them!

Because the official observation point for Boston is at Logan Airport, the storm did make it into the record books! Coming in at 23.7″ the storm ended up being the second largest January snowstorms in Boston history, finishing up only 8 tenths of an inch behind the January storm named “Juno”which kicked off the epic snow blitz on January 27th, 2015. It was also the second snowiest January day behind the President’s Day storm of January 17th, 2003.

After a very slow start, two major storms has propelled Boston to above normal snowfall for the season to date! Snowfall for January stands at 36.2″. I do not have the exact total for the season to date, but since we received very little snowfall prior to this January, it’s somewhere around this number. Still, this is good enough for 4th snowiest January on record, and places us about a foot above average at this point in the season!

So that’s it, right? We had our whopper for the season, and now it’s on to spring…right? If you are not a fan of cold & snow, I recommend you bypass this portion of the blog, and either stop reading altogether or go on to read the forecast. As if this storm wasn’t enough, there is the potential for yet another storm at the end of this week, and yet another next week. Along with the snow, there is the potential for severe winter cold plunging into New England this weekend…coldest in years.

I do not believe this will rival 2015, but it appears we are at the beginning of one of Boston’s famous snow blitzes! This week’s storm is a completely different set up than Saturday’s blizzard. This is not going to be one consolidated low pressure system with strong winds and blinding snow. However, this storm has the potential to bring its own problems and challenges.

A massive thermal gradient is building across the entire country from north to south. Extremely cold air is building across Canada, while very warm & moist air build across the south. This is typically a red flag during the month of February! Meanwhile, a short wave ( bundle of atmospheric energy) will be ejecting out of the southern Pacific. as the northern stream and southern stream phase together, a prolific winter storm will be developing across the center portion of the U.S. Expect to see severe winter weather headlines make the news, as this storm develops across Texas, then begins tacking northeast towards the Ohio Valley. The main threat from this storm out there is going to be a crippling ice storm, where many areas could see between 1 and 2″ of ice. This kind of ice accumulations can result in serious structural damage, not to mention bringing trees and power lines down. In the deeper colder region to the north, heavy snowfall will bring in excess of 1 ft of snow.

While all of this is happening, a surge of milder weather will arrive into New England on Wednesday and Thursday, when temperatures should reach well up into the 40’s. However, at the same time, arctic high pressure will be building across Quebec, Canada. As this cold air build to our north, a frontal boundary will develop extending out from the storm, and begin to slowly ooze south into New England. This is where computer models are diverging.

The European model (ECMWF)keeps this boundary across northern New England, bringing mainly rain across southern New England, possibly changing to sleet and a brief period of snow by Friday morning. Overall, not to big of a deal, but an icy commute Friday morning is still a possibility. This type of scenario would be welcome news for New England ski resorts, bringing accumulating snowfall right before the weekend.

The second scenario is more complex, and would need to bear close monitoring. This scenario, depicted by the American model (GFS), strengthens the arctic high pressure north of New England later this week, sagging the cold front through our region much more quickly. This would allow at first shallow cold air to sag southward much sooner. As precipitation arrives from the southwest, it would first fall as rain across our region. However, as winds turn north, cold air would turn the rain into freezing rain first, then sleet, and finally over to all snow later Thursday night into Friday morning. This would be especially true from Boston points north & west, but actually everyone is in play here even south of Boston. This is important, because while all of this is happening, the low pressure out in the Midwest, would still need to track east, and pass south of New England. Depending upon how much moisture it still has with it, will depend how much snow or ice we receive on Friday. Latest computer models show a good bit of moisture would still need to pass through the region, which could result in a snowfall of 6″ or more at this early juncture.

However, I have seen storms like this fizzle on their approach to New England. We are not going to be tapping into the Atlantic Ocean for this storm. Rather, it would be a storm fueled by warm air advection precipitation, where warm air slides up over the more dense cold air. In case like this when we have cold, dry air building in from the north, the precipitation typically arrives in a quick burst, then quickly slides off the coast, tapering off to light flurries or freezing drizzle in its wake.

At this point, I will only mention the possibility of a winter storm on Friday. I will have to monitor trends as we move throughout the week, and update everyone if conditions warrant. However, I do have this thought. We are in the climatology coldest part of the winter. It would not surprise me if the second scenario is right, as cold air is heavier and more dense, and can overwhelm warm air this time of the year more easily. So I would be on guard for a storm update from me later this week.

By the way, worst case scenario would be something in the middle, where neither the European nor the GFS is correct, and the shallow cold air makes it only far enough south to turn the rain into freezing rain! This means the cold air made it into the region, but the thickness of the cold air in the atmosphere is only cold enough for freezing rain and sleet, but not cold enough for snow. This too is on the table! I will monitor this closely over the course of the week!

As we wrap up January today, I wanted to briefly recap the month and take a quick look at February. As I suspected, January has averaged colder than normal this year, by about 2 degrees. This is the first colder than normal month in Boston since July, and the coldest January since 2015! I also expected snowier than normal conditions this January, and boy did that deliver! As mentioned above, we have seen over 36″ of snow this January, well above the normal of 14″. This is the fourth snowiest January on record in the city.

If we started a trend in January, it will most likely continue for at least the first two weeks of February. I’m expecting quite a volatile month, with temperatures oscillating from bitter cold to periods of warm weather. Overall, I’m actually expecting February to average a bit above average this year with temperatures. However, if you think we’re getting off the hook easily, I’m expecting another snowier than normal month here in Boston, with the potential for several more winter storms, especially the first two weeks of the month. Boston averages about 14″ of snow in February for those who want to know. I’m also holding out hope for a much more active month for northern New England. With a energetic jet stream, and cold air nearby, ski resorts should begin to see more snow during February and March.

Speaking of the ski forecast, I’m expecting a wintry week up in ski country this week. Overall, conditions are good. Not great, as many resorts could use a good dump of natural snow. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect very cold weather to start the week, a slight moderation mid week, then the potential for a decent snowfall Thursday night and into Friday across central resorts in all three states. Bitter cold weather will arrive this weekend so be prepared to bundle up if you plan on hitting the slopes this weekend! More storminess could be arriving next week, as temperatures begin to moderate.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Expect some rapid changes. Watch for mainly sunny skies and light winds for the rest of your Monday. With not much wind, it will feel much nicer than the upper 20’s & low 30’s.

Watch for clear skies and light winds tonight. This will allow for ideal conditions for radiational cooling across suburban areas. Temperatures will fall to the upper teens in Boston, but minus 5 to plus 5 degrees in the suburbs, coldest where snow cover is deepest.

Tuesday may turn into an interesting day weather wise. All systems are weak, however, as high pressure builds to our north, and weak low pressure tracks to our south, a moist easterly flow will develop in eastern Massachusetts. With cold air passing over the relatively warm ocean temperatures, it’s not out of the question many of us will see snow flurries from time to time much of the day. Some coastal locations may even receive a coating of snow. If the temperatures were any colder, there could of even been some surprise snow tomorrow.

As temperatures warm up, flurries could turn into light freezing drizzle or just plain drizzle tomorrow night. Watch for slick spots, for sure!

Temperatures should moderate Wednesday and Thursday to the upper 30’s and low 40’s Wednesday, and mid to upper 40’s on Thursday.  There will be some melting across the area, as southerly winds transport milder moist air north. If any fog develops, which there is a good possibility of this, snow melt would be accelerated. All the snow will not disappear, but some locations may lose half of what they have by late Thursday.

By the way, Happy Groundhog Day is Wednesday, February 2nd! I say he sees his shadow and 6 more weeks of winter! If you live here in New England, it doesn’t matter what he says, we automatically receive 6 more weeks of winter, plus an additional 4 weeks for thinking that spring actually arrives on time here!

Clouds will be on the increase, and watch for rain to move into the region from west to east Thursday evening. From this point forward into Friday, it all depends on how fast the cold air pushes into our region. Right now, let’s call for rain Thursday evening. As the front slips through, expect winds to shift to the north, which will begin to transport cold air into the area. This will allow rain to change to freezing rain first, then sleet, and finally to snow by Friday morning. If there’s any delay in the cold, precipitation would fall as mainly freezing rain and sleet or a combination of all three!

The further north you are, the better chance of it turning to snow earlier. As mentioned earlier, there’s going to be a good deal of moisture that still needs to pass through the Boston area. If it’s snow, there could be in excess of 6”. If it’s freezing rain & sleet, it would make for treacherous traveling, and icy trees limbs with the risk of power outages. We do not want this type of scenario! From what I can see at this moment, it looks like Boston is going to be on the colder side of the gradient. This could make for a snowy day on Friday, or a wintry mix of precipitation transitioning to snow as the day progresses.

Whatever happens on Friday, the arctic high will build in from the north over the weekend. Expect bitterly cold weather throughout the weekend, with dangerous low temperatures at night, most likely falling to below zero even close to if not in Boston. You can see my concern if there is too much freezing rain on Friday, we could run into power outages. With the bitter cold expected this weekend, that could make for dangerous conditions for folks who lose power. Expect updates later this week. Yes, we are in deep winter!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a special segment about the Blizzard of ’78! I want to clear the air a bit about some misconceptions swirling around in comparing recent storms to this storm. It will also be the 44th anniversary of this storm on February 6th. You won’t want to miss it! I will also have your new ski & snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, it’s not all bad news…beginning on February 2nd, sunsets will be at 5:00 PM, and only get later from there! Enjoy!

Keep safe & warm!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Potential Nor’easter…1/24/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was an interesting weekend, weather wise! Saturday began with arctic temperatures, and light snow flurries floating in from the ocean. It didn’t amount to anything more than a fluffy dusting around Boston. However, this was not the case along the South Shore of Boston! A stronger fetch of air blowing in on northeast winds brought legitimate snow squalls to this part of the state beginning early Friday. The squalls continued on and off right into Saturday, with some towns accumulating a half a foot of very low density fluffy snowfall.

In most cases, you could of used a leaf blower or just a broom to whisk it away! This was in response to clockwise circulation from an arctic high pressure over Maine. It’s similar to Lake Effect snow out in New York state when arctic air blows over the relatively warm water of the Great Lakes. These snow squalls can persist for days, and bury cities and towns under feet of snow! Later in the weekend, the high pressure shifted, allowing the snow squalls to diminish. Sunday saw mainly sunny skies and somewhat milder temperatures. A weak storm passed through Sunday night, with many awakening to a dusting of snow this morning.

So far, it’s been a fairly benign winter across much of New England. No doubt the temperatures have trended more seasonal here in January, compared to December. I was very pleased to see a friend of mine post a video on Facebook enjoying a homemade ice skating rink he built in his back yard. I have given outdoor skating rink forecasts in the past, but this is the first January in quite a while that it’s been cold enough to sustain the ice. It’s a rare combination to have cold temperatures and very little snowfall to make for optimal conditions for pond hockey and back yard skating rinks. Typically, there’s either too much snow, or temperatures aren’t consistently cold enough to sustain safe ice.

We are at the midpoint of winter, and up to this point, I would give my winter forecast a C+. It’s been a very tranquil winter, with below average precipitation, and few winter weather events. Believe me, Boston threaded the needle with the storm we experienced earlier this month on the 7th. Somehow, Boston managed to get close to a foot of snow, which promptly evaporated two days later. I mentioned in the post I wrote the following Monday it was a classic example of sublimation, when a solid turns into vapor or gas, without melting. There was very little water content to that snow, which allowed it to quickly evaporate.

In any event, if we did not receive that snow, Boston would be sitting here at this point in the winter, with about a half an inch of snow! However, the storm happened, and we can’t go back in time, therefore, Boston currently stands at approximately 12.5″ of snow for the season. In a average winter, Logan Airport receives approximately 48.5″ of snowfall, more in outlying communities.

You may ask, I thought the average was around 44″? Yes, indeed it was. However, when NOAA came out with their new 30 year climatology period between 1990-2020, the new average for Boston increased over this time period. No doubt some of the big winter storms and way above average seasonal totals over the past 20 years played a role in the higher seasonal average. I can list several winters over the last 20 years when seasonal averages were more typical for places like southern Canada than Boston. Remember the historic winter just 7 years ago when Boston received a staggering 110.6″ of snow? Yes, seasonal averages such as these prompted the increased average over this time period.

With all this being said, I am a big believer in Mother Nature balancing things out. After the 2017-18 winter, we are now running on our fourth consecutive below average winter in a row here in Boston…and six out of the last seven! When they make the new climatology average in 2030, could the average drop back to 38.5″ in Boston? If we continue to receive winters with below average snowfall the answer is yes! But guess what, If you average 48.5″ and 38.5″ the average is around 43.5″, which I believe is the true average for Logan Airport! But as I always mention, it’s the extremes that make the averages in weather!

So what am I expecting for the second half of winter?  While our winter has been benign up to this point, this does not necessarily mean it’s going to stay this way! My winter forecast for Boston called for between 50 and 60″ of snow this winter. This does not mean it’s all going to fall in one storm. I always remind everyone that it’s going to be an adventure how we get there! We’ve already seen a foot, we may see another foot in February, but maybe 2 feet in March…or even April! You never know in New England!

There have been countless slow starting winters only to rally late and end with a bang! We only have to go back 7 years ago to the grand daddy 2014-15 winter. Did you know the first winter storm that year in Boston did not arrive until this date? Yes, it was January 24th, 2015 when the first storm arrived. It was on a Saturday, and we had heavy wet snow falling all morning, slowly dwindling down during the afternoon. Boston received about 4″ turning the the city into a true Winter Wonderland! Two days later the first of four crippling blizzards paralyzed the city through February 15th. When it was all over in March. Boston received a staggering 110.6″ of snow!

Back in 1997, Boston was cruising for what seemed to be an easy winter with only about 27″ of snow for the entire 1996-97 winter. Easter Sunday arrived on March 30th that year, and was sunny and mild, with highs in the 60’s. The next day on Monday a very intense upper level storm was diving out of southern Ontario towards New Jersey. This storm merged with a disturbance off the New Jersey coast spreading rain into southern New England, At the same time a very cold upper level trough was digging into New England and captured the surface low pressure off of New Jersey. The rain rapidly turned to snow around midday on March 31st. With all of this upper level energy in the atmosphere, this storm rapidly intensified as it slowly tracked just south and east of Cape Cod, Blizzard conditions raged in eastern Massachusetts Monday night and continued well into the next day which was April 1st. The storm turned into Boston’s third heaviest snowfall in the cities history, and was named “The April Fools’ Blizzard!” Snowfall accumulations ranged from between 2 and 3 ft across the Boston area, along with massive tree damage and power outages.

Another very late blooming winter was the 1968-69 winter. Up to February 23rd of 1969, Boston had only received a few inches of snow. A disorganized low pressure slowly wandered off the New England coast, spreading light snow across much of eastern New England on the 24th. As with many of our historic storms, this storm merged with another storm and rapidly intensified into a nor’easter later on the 24th. This storm was in no hurry to leave New England, as it stalled and spun moisture back into eastern New England for days on end. It became known as the “100 hour storm” in Boston, as steady snow fell heavy at times straight ion through the 28th of February! When it was all said and done between 3 and 4 ft of very heavy wet snow paralyzed the Boston area points northeast up along the North Shore.

As you can see, it’s never officially over around here until May 10th.  Though I can see a relaxation to the pattern in February, I believe winter is going to come back with a vengeance in March, and may even linger into April this year. Will we reach the snow amounts I predicted back in November? Nobody knows for sure! I’m still fairly confident we will, even at this juncture of the winter! When I make my winter seasonal forecast, I take into account many natural signals that I monitor and record during the autumn months. I also read countless technical discussions and study long range seasonal computer model data. After compiling all of this information, I make my best educated guess for the outcome.

There is quite a bit of excitement on social media regarding the potential of winter storm this weekend. I have to admit, I am caught up in the hysteria! I love reading all the tweets from amateur weather enthusiasts and professional meteorologists about the storm. This is especially the case since there hasn’t been too much to get excited about so far this winter! There is so much information today, it almost becomes overwhelming.

While it may be easy to get up in the excitement, we really need to pump the brakes a bit on this ‘potential’ storm. It was just one week ago today the European model was showing a significant nor’easter for much of New England for this past Saturday. Due to lack of ensemble support, I left it open, saying I would only update everyone if conditions warranted. As it turned out, the European model struggled, slowly eroding the chance of a storm until there was no threat by the time Wednesday rolled around.To it’s credit, the American based GFS model, once the laughing stock of all weather models, came out a winner in always keeping the storm safely out at sea.

So this week the GFS model first showed the storm over the weekend for several runs in a row. Today, more computer models, including the European has followed suite, and are all showing a powerful nor’easter just southeast of Cape Cod come later Saturday. Just because they are all showing a storm, still does not guarantee a direct hit. There are still many options on the table that could be the final outcome.

At this moment, I can see three scenarios. First, a major nor’easter / blizzard slowly tracking up the coast passing just southeast of Cape Cod into the Gulf of Maine. A track like this with enough cold air locked in the region could result in a full fledged blizzard, strong northeast winds, with the potential of major coastal flooding. Tides are astronomically high this weekend, so a track like this is alarming to say the least!

Second scenario, the storm becomes so intense, and the upper air pattern becomes negatively tilted that the storm hugs the coastline, or even tracks west of Boston. Such a scenario would bring heavy snow changing to heavy rain in Boston, with less than 6″ accumulation, with most of it getting washed away from heavy rain. This track would bring a period of strong easterly winds, but also keep the coastal flooding to moderate levels or less. Still a big storm, but not a crippling storm. By the way, this track would bury western and northern New England with a couple feet of snow or more!

Third scenario, the storm never phases with the northern jet stream. This would result in a less powerful storm, with the brunt of the storm passing out to sea. We may still receive some snow out of this scenario, but nothing that we haven’t seen before.

I do not want to alarm anyone, just calling it as I see it. Many computer model data this afternoon are clustered with scenario one. I have always said, you never know here in New England! I’m not dismissing it, as it could happen! However, I am still in the monitoring stage. There are still many moving parts that computer models are ingesting. The energy for the storm is still out by Alaska. When this energy crashes into the Pacific Northwest coast on Wednesday, computer models will print out more reliable solution.

I will say this, the pattern supports a major storm. Many factors are on the playing field for a significant event. It’s really up to Mother Nature whether she wants to pull out all stops to make a historic event happen. As always, I will monitor, and will have important updates during the week as conditions warrant!

A major winter storm dumped between 10 and 18″ of snow across many ski resorts in New England last Monday. It has been cold, so they have been making plenty. There will be a light snowfall overnight, with many areas picking up a few inches of snowfall. Snow making will resume this week, with mostly cold weather to support it. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10 for ski and snow boarding activities. Much improved after the slow start. Depending upon the track of this weekends storm, will determine how much natural snow will fall up north. I will monitor and keep everyone updated.

Now for our weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Expect increasing clouds the rest of today. It will chilly but not extremely cold, with highs in the low to mid 30’s. As a warm front approaches, there will be a period of light snow overnight/ Nothing heavy, but there will be a dusting to an inch by the time you wake up tomorrow morning.

Watch for any morning light snow or flurries to diminish early on. Clouds should tend to break allowing for some sun to break through during the afternoon. A breeze from the southwest will allow temperatures to boost up into the 40’s. Enjoy!

A low pressure will pass north of New England on Wednesday. This is going to drag a strong cold front through the region. Therefore, watch for cold air to plunge back into New England Wednesday & Thursday. Temperatures will not make it out of the 20’s. with single digits and teens at night. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder!

Expect lighter winds and cold temperatures to continue for Friday. Sunshine will fade behind increasing clouds during the day, but I am not expecting any precipitation at this time.

As we discussed above. The potential exists for a major winter storm affecting New England this weekend. If current computer model projections hold, expect thickening clouds later Friday into Friday night. Winds will begin to freshen out of the east later in the day and at night. This may bring in coastal snow flurries and snow showers off of the ocean.

If the current track holds true, the potential exists for a severe winter storm late Friday night through most of Saturday for much of eastern Massachusetts. Heavy snow, strong east to northeast winds will bring blizzard conditions to much of eastern Massachusetts and the New Hampshire seacoast region. There may be mixing issues for coastal locations and possible change to rain on Cape Cod. As the storm tracks north, blizzard conditions would spread north through coastal Maine. If strong winds coincide with astronomical high tides, the potential for major coastal flooding is possible. As the storm slowly lifts beyond our latitude, backlash lighter snow will continue through much of Saturday night, ending early Sunday morning.

I can’t give snowfall amounts at this point. As more computer data comes in, and we move deeper into the week, I will post a full update with expected snowfall amounts. Needless to say, if the potential is realized, we would be talking feet, not inches!

A disclaimer! We have gone done this road before! The fact that the storm is still 5 days away means computer models may and probably will have a different solution come Wednesday! I am only giving a forecast as to what I see at this moment. Any one of the three scenarios I mentioned above is still possible! At this very moment, scenario one is the one I am going with, however this can change! One thing you can count on, is that I will update everyone as we move deeper into this week. If you don’t hear from me, then the storm fizzled, and went out to sea! If you do…batten down the hatches!

Well, that’s about it for now, friends! In next week’s blog I will have a preview for February, and a review of January. I will also have a new ski & snow boarding forecast for everyone, and let you know how long the outdoor rinks will last for! In the meantime, it’s not a lock yet…fortunate for us we don’t have to shovel potential!

Keep safe & warm!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Expect…The Unexpected! 1/17/22

Hello! Happy Martin Luther King Day! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday, weekend! As promised in my winter outlook, the weather patterns have been volatile so far this winter…and it’s just the beginning! It all began with the snowstorm back on the 7th. This was followed by bitter cold weather last Tuesday, which was quickly followed by much milder temperatures for Wednesday & Thursday. Not to be outdone, Saturday was even colder than last Tuesday, when high temperatures barely made it out of the single digits! You may of been wondering, how can the forecast be calling for rain in Boston, after being so cold? Yet, most of us inside of Rt 128 woke up to a driving rainstorm this morning!

An intense low pressure is currently tracking through New England today. At one point, this storm looked like it would track south and east of the New England coastline. If this were to happen, it would of been a classic nor’easter. Instead, the storm stalled, and began tracking due north from the Carolina’s up into southern New York state. With a track like this, southeast winds transport mild air in off of the ocean, crushing any idea of snow along the coastal plain in all of New England.

So this storm is not called a nor’easter, instead we call this storm a sou’easter (south easter abbreviated) or winds blowing from the southeast. Yes, I know, it does not have the same ring to it as nor’easter does! A nor’easter features northeast winds, draining cold air down into the New England coastal plain from the Canadian Maritimes, featuring more frozen precipitation, also attracting a lot of interest from weather enthusiasts and the general public.

Nonetheless, this storm brought heavy snows to interior parts of the northeast. Western New York and southern Ontario in cities such as Buffalo, Toronto and Ottawa received near blizzard conditions! If you live within 25 miles of the coast from Virginia, New jersey right up on through the entire New England coastline, any snow that fell has been washed away! This has been a classic La Nina storm, where heavy snows fell across interior regions and hilltop towns. Here in New England, you would have to travel west out to the Berkshires to run into snow, where many towns above 2000 ft saw between 8 and 12″ of snow. This extended throughout much of Vermont, interior New Hampshire and Maine, with the exception of the coast, where mostly rain fell there too. This storm was a bonanza for New England ski resorts, where many will see between 10 and 20″ of snow! So far, it’s been nearly a snow less winter up there, so this is just what the doctor ordered!

The storm also brought a period of strong winds and minor coastal flooding along the coast. The strongest winds I could see were around 65 mph up in Cape Ann. Many other coastal communities observed winds between 50 and 60 mph. As this band of strong winds and heavy rain moved north of us, we have punched into the warm sector of the storm. Looking out the window of my weather bunker, I can see fast moving stratocumulus clouds racing by in the gusty southwest winds. In between the clouds, there has even been periods of bright sunshine, along with mild temperatures! This is another classic La Nina signature where the weather across the interior is markedly different than along the coast. As the center of the storm tracks north of our latitude, the winds are going to shift into the west, funneling the cold air to come rushing back into our region this evening. This may even be accompanied by some scattered snow showers!

If you love wintry weather and live along the coast, do not be dismayed! As mentioned in my January outlook, the weather patterns are going to be extremely volatile! The last 10 days of January look to be very active, with mainly below average temperatures, and several more threats for snowstorms. In most cases, I can see where the source of where the cold air is coming from by teleconnections. For example, many times I mention there is a Greenland Block developing also known as the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), or the polar vortex is weakening and to be prepared for severe winter weather. No, Mother Nature is throwing another curve ball our way!

As of this moment, there are no clear cut teleconnections that we can see that may be responsible for the upcoming pattern. Rather, it seems rather chaotic, with many things happening all at once! This makes it very difficult for meteorologists to determine what may be coming our way. You may ask, if it’s chaotic, could nothing come about this pattern? Of course that could be the outcome. The unknown means that the volatile pattern could come and go with its bark worse than its bite!

However, there are also solid indications of a formidable period of winter weather heading our way between January 20th and February 15th. Dr, Judah Cohen studies the effects of the polar vortex on our winter weather patterns. He is always on the look out for a polar vortex split. A split occurs when the vortex is disrupted and splits into several lobes in the Northern Hemisphere. When this occurs, several weeks of severe winter weather can occur in certain regions across North America. At the moment, there are no polar vortex splits imminent.

However, Cohen is also monitoring what he calls polar vortex stretches. This is when the vortex expands like taffy, and reaches down into lower latitudes. There may not be a split coming, but it appears the vortex will be expanding down across the eastern part of the U.S. several times over the next few weeks. Whether the vortex splits or is stretched, the outcome can have similar results. With a huge ridge of high pressure (mild & dry) setting up across western North America, this allows a trough of low pressure (cold & stormy) to dig into the eastern part of the U.S. A somewhat similar pattern developed in the epic winter of 2014-15. At this moment, I am not calling for 4 major blizzards and 94″ of snow to fall in Boston three weeks!

With that being said, it is hauntingly similar timing wise with the time frame I mentioned above. While I’m not expecting an all out snow blitz such as that, I can envision several snowstorms in the upcoming pattern. There is even the potential for a blizzard to hit the eastern part of the U.S. later in January or the first part of February. I always mention, fast starting winters in early December typically run out of strength later in January and February. It’s the slow developing winters, that feature a ton of cold air up in Canada are the ones that bring the most severe winters! Cold air is like taffy, slowly sinking down from Canada into the U.S. When it arrives slowly, it has staying power, and cold air is more readily available for future storms. I am seeing evidence of this here in January. Once these patterns establish themselves, they can persist for at least several weeks at a time, if not a month or two.

Sometimes, as was the case last winter when the polar vortex split and came charging down from Canada into the northern plains straight into Texas! This led to a 2 to 3 week period of severe winter weather, with pipes freezing, blizzards and fierce wind chills right to the Gulf coast! In this case, it was brief but very intense. Once the vortex dissipated, the climate rebounded quickly.

So what am I thinking here? While there’s no guarantee for anything, my winter forecast made in November mentioned to be prepared for a rough January this year, and for winter to relax a bit in February, but to come back in March. I am still expecting a blast of winter with a few big snowstorms and bitterly cold temperatures. As I mentioned above, the worst should be centered between January 20th and February 15th. We already have a foot of accumulation in Boston. I am anticipating another 40″ of snow this winter before it fades later in March. Whether it comes in one or two big snowstorms, or several moderate sized storms, keep your shovels handy!

If you are lucky enough to be skiing today, you picked a great time! The storm was much needed for the snow starved New England ski resorts! Too bad it didn’t arrive at the end of last week. Nevertheless, many resorts will receive between 10 and 20″ of snowfall today. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10 for ski & snowboard conditions for this week. It will remain cold enough for the rest of this week so ski resorts can crank the snow making equipment, to add depth to the trails.  With advancements in technology, you would be amazed how much snow resorts can make when temperatures are at optimal levels. In some cases, I have heard reports they can make a couple feet of snow overnight! There may be some snow showers later Wednesday into Wednesday night, which may freshen up the slopes. Otherwise, expect colder weather to arrive later this week, with possibly more snow arriving this weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Up and down temperatures…snow?

Expect fast moving clouds and windy weather for the rest of your Monday. There were several photos of rainbows observed around Boston earlier today! It will be on the mild side early, but watch for falling temperatures later today and especially this evening. Don’t be surprised to see some passing snow snow flurries or even a brief snow squall as the cold air comes rushing back in.

Skies will clear out later this evening, temperatures will fall back into the teens and 20’s across the region. With a brisk wind, there will be a bite to the air.

Tuesday will feature windy and colder weather. Highs will mainly be between 25 and 35, warmest along the south coast of New England. I am not expecting any precipitation tomorrow. Fair weather will continue Tuesday night, though there may be some increasing clouds late at night. Low temperatures will mainly be in the teens and 20’s, which is seasonable for this time of year.

A warm front will be pushing through New England on Wednesday. This typically means more clouds than sun, with milder temperatures. High temperatures should be between 35 and 45, warmest near the coast.

A cold front will be crossing the region Wednesday night. Computer models are indecisive with the weather associated with this front. There are a couple models developing a wave of low pressure which would track just south of New England. If this occurs, it would introduce the chance of a period of snow tracking across southern New England, with the potential of a 1 to 3″ of snow. Other computer models say just a chance of some lingering rain or snow showers early Thursday morning, then clearing and turning colder. Latest data point to a more progressive system, which limits any accumulating snow. I will go with a chance a morning rain and snow showers, with little to no accumulation. It will turn colder with temperatures dropping into the 20’s.

Watch for fair and somewhat milder weather again for Friday, with highs in the 30’s to near 40.

I am closely monitoring the potential for a more significant storm for this upcoming weekend. This storm would originate once again in the Carolina’s, and possibly start slowly moving up the coast as a nor’easter. Computer models have been waffling between taking this storm out to see, or turning it up the coast and hitting southern New England. The European computer model lost the storm, but has it back in today’s guidance. The American model  has it sailing harmlessly out to sea. Right now, I will side with the European model, given its past performance. At this early juncture, let’s go with cloudy and cold weather for Saturday with a chance of snow. This storm does have the potential to bring significant snowfall amounts to the region. I will be monitoring this storm all week and will update everyone if conditions warrant later in the week. After this storm, there are more threats to closely watch, and more cold weather through the end of January.

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next post, I will be updating the weather patterns closely to see how severe things may become. I will also have a new ski & snowboarding forecast for everyone, as well as a new weather history segment. In the meantime, expect just about anything to happen, with the exception of rainbows for the rest of this week!

Be safe & thanks for reading!

Pete

Expect…The Unexpected! 1/17/22

Hello! Happy Martin Luther King Day! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday, weekend! As promised in my winter outlook, the weather patterns have been volatile so far this winter…and it’s just the beginning! It all began with the snowstorm back on the 7th. This was followed by bitter cold weather last Tuesday, which was quickly followed by much milder temperatures for Wednesday & Thursday. Not to be outdone, Saturday was even colder than last Tuesday, when high temperatures barely made it out of the single digits! You may of been wondering, how can the forecast be calling for rain in Boston, after being so cold? Yet, most of us inside of Rt 128 woke up to a driving rainstorm this morning!

An intense low pressure is currently tracking through New England today. At one point, this storm looked like it would track south and east of the New England coastline. If this were to happen, it would of been a classic nor’easter. Instead, the storm stalled, and began tracking due north from the Carolina’s up into southern New York state. With a track like this, southeast winds transport mild air in off of the ocean, crushing any idea of snow along the coastal plain in all of New England.

So this storm is not called a nor’easter, instead we call this storm a sou’easter (south easter abbreviated) or winds blowing from the southeast. Yes, I know, it does not have the same ring to it as nor’easter does! A nor’easter features northeast winds, draining cold air down into the New England coastal plain from the Canadian Maritimes, featuring more frozen precipitation, also attracting a lot of interest from weather enthusiasts and the general public.

Nonetheless, this storm brought heavy snows to interior parts of the northeast. Western New York and southern Ontario in cities such as Buffalo, Toronto and Ottawa received near blizzard conditions! If you live within 25 miles of the coast from Virginia, New jersey right up on through the entire New England coastline, any snow that fell has been washed away! This has been a classic La Nina storm, where heavy snows fell across interior regions and hilltop towns. Here in New England, you would have to travel west out to the Berkshires to run into snow, where many towns above 2000 ft saw between 8 and 12″ of snow. This extended throughout much of Vermont, interior New Hampshire and Maine, with the exception of the coast, where mostly rain fell there too. This storm was a bonanza for New England ski resorts, where many will see between 10 and 20″ of snow! So far, it’s been nearly a snow less winter up there, so this is just what the doctor ordered!

The storm also brought a period of strong winds and minor coastal flooding along the coast. The strongest winds I could see were around 65 mph up in Cape Ann. Many other coastal communities observed winds between 50 and 60 mph. As this band of strong winds and heavy rain moved north of us, we have punched into the warm sector of the storm. Looking out the window of my weather bunker, I can see fast moving stratocumulus clouds racing by in the gusty southwest winds. In between the clouds, there has even been periods of bright sunshine, along with mild temperatures! This is another classic La Nina signature where the weather across the interior is markedly different than along the coast. As the center of the storm tracks north of our latitude, the winds are going to shift into the west, funneling the cold air to come rushing back into our region this evening. This may even be accompanied by some scattered snow showers!

If you love wintry weather and live along the coast, do not be dismayed! As mentioned in my January outlook, the weather patterns are going to be extremely volatile! The last 10 days of January look to be very active, with mainly below average temperatures, and several more threats for snowstorms. In most cases, I can see where the source of where the cold air is coming from by teleconnections. For example, many times I mention there is a Greenland Block developing also known as the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), or the polar vortex is weakening and to be prepared for severe winter weather. No, Mother Nature is throwing another curve ball our way!

As of this moment, there are no clear cut teleconnections that we can see that may be responsible for the upcoming pattern. Rather, it seems rather chaotic, with many things happening all at once! This makes it very difficult for meteorologists to determine what may be coming our way. You may ask, if it’s chaotic, could nothing come about this pattern? Of course that could be the outcome. The unknown means that the volatile pattern could come and go with its bark worse than its bite!

However, there are also solid indications of a formidable period of winter weather heading our way between January 20th and February 15th. Dr, Judah Cohen studies the effects of the polar vortex on our winter weather patterns. He is always on the look out for a polar vortex split. A split occurs when the vortex is disrupted and splits into several lobes in the Northern Hemisphere. When this occurs, several weeks of severe winter weather can occur in certain regions across North America. At the moment, there are no polar vortex splits imminent.

However, Cohen is also monitoring what he calls polar vortex stretches. This is when the vortex expands like taffy, and reaches down into lower latitudes. There may not be a split coming, but it appears the vortex will be expanding down across the eastern part of the U.S. several times over the next few weeks. Whether the vortex splits or is stretched, the outcome can have similar results. With a huge ridge of high pressure (mild & dry) setting up across western North America, this allows a trough of low pressure (cold & stormy) to dig into the eastern part of the U.S. A somewhat similar pattern developed in the epic winter of 2014-15. At this moment, I am not calling for 4 major blizzards and 94″ of snow to fall in Boston three weeks!

With that being said, it is hauntingly similar timing wise with the time frame I mentioned above. While I’m not expecting an all out snow blitz such as that, I can envision several snowstorms in the upcoming pattern. There is even the potential for a blizzard to hit the eastern part of the U.S. later in January or the first part of February. I always mention, fast starting winters in early December typically run out of strength later in January and February. It’s the slow developing winters, that feature a ton of cold air up in Canada are the ones that bring the most severe winters! Cold air is like taffy, slowly sinking down from Canada into the U.S. When it arrives slowly, it has staying power, and cold air is more readily available for future storms. I am seeing evidence of this here in January. Once these patterns establish themselves, they can persist for at least several weeks at a time, if not a month or two.

Sometimes, as was the case last winter when the polar vortex split and came charging down from Canada into the northern plains straight into Texas! This led to a 2 to 3 week period of severe winter weather, with pipes freezing, blizzards and fierce wind chills right to the Gulf coast! In this case, it was brief but very intense. Once the vortex dissipated, the climate rebounded quickly.

So what am I thinking here? While there’s no guarantee for anything, my winter forecast made in November mentioned to be prepared for a rough January this year, and for winter to relax a bit in February, but to come back in March. I am still expecting a blast of winter with a few big snowstorms and bitterly cold temperatures. As I mentioned above, the worst should be centered between January 20th and February 15th. We already have a foot of accumulation in Boston. I am anticipating another 40″ of snow this winter before it fades later in March. Whether it comes in one or two big snowstorms, or several moderate sized storms, keep your shovels handy!

If you are lucky enough to be skiing today, you picked a great time! The storm was much needed for the snow starved New England ski resorts! Too bad it didn’t arrive at the end of last week. Nevertheless, many resorts will receive between 10 and 20″ of snowfall today. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10 for ski & snowboard conditions for this week. It will remain cold enough for the rest of this week so ski resorts can crank the snow making equipment, to add depth to the trails.  With advancements in technology, you would be amazed how much snow resorts can make when temperatures are at optimal levels. In some cases, I have heard reports they can make a couple feet of snow overnight! There may be some snow showers later Wednesday into Wednesday night, which may freshen up the slopes. Otherwise, expect colder weather to arrive later this week, with possibly more snow arriving this weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Up and down temperatures…snow?

Expect fast moving clouds and windy weather for the rest of your Monday. There were several photos of rainbows observed around Boston earlier today! It will be on the mild side early, but watch for falling temperatures later today and especially this evening. Don’t be surprised to see some passing snow snow flurries or even a brief snow squall as the cold air comes rushing back in.

Skies will clear out later this evening, temperatures will fall back into the teens and 20’s across the region. With a brisk wind, there will be a bite to the air.

Tuesday will feature windy and colder weather. Highs will mainly be between 25 and 35, warmest along the south coast of New England. I am not expecting any precipitation tomorrow. Fair weather will continue Tuesday night, though there may be some increasing clouds late at night. Low temperatures will mainly be in the teens and 20’s, which is seasonable for this time of year.

A warm front will be pushing through New England on Wednesday. This typically means more clouds than sun, with milder temperatures. High temperatures should be between 35 and 45, warmest near the coast.

A cold front will be crossing the region Wednesday night. Computer models are indecisive with the weather associated with this front. There are a couple models developing a wave of low pressure which would track just south of New England. If this occurs, it would introduce the chance of a period of snow tracking across southern New England, with the potential of a 1 to 3″ of snow. Other computer models say just a chance of some lingering rain or snow showers early Thursday morning, then clearing and turning colder. Latest data point to a more progressive system, which limits any accumulating snow. I will go with a chance a morning rain and snow showers, with little to no accumulation. It will turn colder with temperatures dropping into the 20’s.

Watch for fair and somewhat milder weather again for Friday, with highs in the 30’s to near 40.

I am closely monitoring the potential for a more significant storm for this upcoming weekend. This storm would originate once again in the Carolina’s, and possibly start slowly moving up the coast as a nor’easter. Computer models have been waffling between taking this storm out to see, or turning it up the coast and hitting southern New England. The European computer model lost the storm, but has it back in today’s guidance. The American model  has it sailing harmlessly out to sea. Right now, I will side with the European model, given its past performance. At this early juncture, let’s go with cloudy and cold weather for Saturday with a chance of snow. This storm does have the potential to bring significant snowfall amounts to the region. I will be monitoring this storm all week and will update everyone if conditions warrant later in the week. After this storm, there are more threats to closely watch, and more cold weather through the end of January.

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next post, I will be updating the weather patterns closely to see how severe things may become. I will also have a new ski & snowboarding forecast for everyone, as well as a new weather history segment. In the meantime, be prepared for anything, with the exception of rainbows for the rest of this week!

Be safe & thanks for reading!

Pete