Arctic Blast! 1/10/22

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Many of us in the Boston area were digging out from between 10 and 14″ of snow on Friday! While Saturday was sunny & cold, Sunday turned  markedly warmer, nearly wiping out our fresh snowfall! There’s wasn’t much sun on Sunday, but I would of imagined if there was more Sun, temperatures really would of been springlike!

Sorry for the late post, once again. Time has been limited today, so this will have to be a short update!

Many were asking me, “Pete, what happened to all the snow?” This is a very good observation. Boston’s Logan Airport received 11.7″ of snow Friday morning. Much of it falling in a very short period of time. From about 4 am to 8 am snow fell at a rate of 2 inched per hour across the city. Nearly another 4″ fell during the daylight hours on Friday, leading to a very snowy day in the city. Like many. I was surprised at the intensity of the snowfall.

My forecast called for between 6 and 8″ in the city, with the asterisk that more snow may fall if the heavier bands track across the city. I new there was going to be intense bands, but computer models showed them situated just north and just south of the city. In these locations, I was calling for between 8 to 10″ of snow with some communities reaching a foot. As it turned out, the heavy snow bands stalled right over Boston, so for once the city ended up being in the jack pot for heaviest snow accumulations! Other towns & cities that received more than a foot of snow were Milford, Foxborough, Walpole, Westwood, Milton and Quincy to name a few. Heaviest snow amounts stretched from Boston, southwesterly towards northern Rhode Island and northeast Connecticut.

Getting back as to how it all melted so quickly. The snow seemed to of disappeared as quickly as it fell! Believe it or not, snow is quite a complex phenomenon. You could write an entire book about it! The snow we observed Friday was the kind of snow my friends Brett & William experience in the Colorado Rockies nearly every winter. Some skiers call it “Champagne Powder” or snow with very little water content to it. Fluff factor, very low density, call it what you will, the snow was very light and easy to shovel!

Forecasting how much snow is going to fall is a lot trickier than what you think! When forecasting accumulations, meteorologists and weather enthusiasts such as myself determine how much precipitation is going to fall by studying computer model data. From there, one has to carefully study the temperatures in the atmosphere to make sure it’s going to be cold enough through all layers to support all snow. Meteorologists also talk a lot about “snow growth” or how efficiently snowflakes bond together to make bigger snowflakes to promote faster accumulations.

If it’s all a go, the trickiest part of the forecast is determining snow ratios. Typically, one inch of precipitation equals 10″ of snow. That’s if everything is perfect! In some cases. temperatures are warmer, and the ratio is lower. Meaning, you can receive 6 or 7″ of heavy wet cement like snow, with one inch of precipitation. In Friday’s case, the ratio was extremely high! It was 20 to 1, meaning if we received one inch of water, there would of been 20″ of snow! Fortunately for us, only about a 6 tenths of water equivalent fell during the storm.

Because there was very little water content to the snow, several factors came into play to make it magically disappear. First, there’s a process called sublimation, when a solid, such as snow or ice, evaporates or turns into a vapor without it turning into a liquid first. This is common with very dry, low water content snow. Second, the dew point temperatures increased from very dry levels Saturday night, to moist levels on Sunday. This helps in the melting process. Third, very mild southwesterly winds transporting increasingly warmer air into the region throughout the entire day. If you are a winter enthusiast in the Boston region, you should know that southwesterly winds are a snow eater! Combining all these factors together, and you now understand how our snow disappeared so quickly!

Some friends also asked me if this was a nor’easter? This is a very good question. The short answer to this question is yes, it was a nor’easter. However, it was certainly not a traditional style nor’easter. The storm took a track like a nor’easter would, and it passed south of Nantucket close to the “bench mark” but it was lacking any strong winds. In fact, winds were nearly calm as the heaviest snow was falling! The storm was intense, but relied on strong upper level dynamics to produce the heavy snowfall.

All in all, most people really enjoyed the storm! Schools were closed for the day & kids (and some adults) went out in droves to play in the snow! There wasn’t any coastal flooding, power outages, nor was it bitter cold, and there were no strong winds. Snow just gently continued to fall for much of the day, leading to a beautiful wintry landscape across the region!

What’s next?? Well, we have finally transitioned int a more wintry pattern. It will not be cold & snowing all the time, but for the balance of January, we can expect several arctic cold blasts and more chances for snow. Could a blizzard evolve from such a pattern? Yes, the coming upper air pattern supports a blizzard. Is it going to happen? Not necessarily. The potential is there for a significant winter storm during January, but sometimes all the factors don’t come together.  In my winter forecast, I mentioned that January is going to be a very wintry month this year. I see no reason to back away form this statement from what I’m seeing.

Time for our ski and snowboarding forecast. Unfortunately, ski resorts have not received much natural snow so far this winter. This has been a surprise so far. I truly believe the fortunes will change for ski country, the deeper we go into winter. It’s a bit of a slow start, but I believe it will linger deep into March and even April this year. Give it some time, and the snow machine will start cranking up there! For this week, it looks like mainly another dry and cold week. I will rate it a 6 out of 10. In fact, it’s going to be dangerously cold for being outdoors tomorrow. Thereafter, there will be a slight moderation in temperatures. I do not see any major snowstorms for this week, however, things may turn unsettled come this weekend, with clipper type storms tracking across northern New England with periods of snow and cold temperatures. There is the potential for more significant snowfall sometime after this weekend.

Now time for our weekly outdoor activity forecast. I am rating this week a 4 out of 10. Expect mainly clear and cold weather overnight, with lows mainly in the teens. An arctic cold front will be quietly slipping through the region overnight. As the front passes, winds are going to turn more northerly, and begin to usher in the coldest air in quite a while across New England.

Tuesday is going to be one of those bitterly cold days across New England. A north wind may bring ocean effect clouds and snow showers across Cape Cod tomorrow. Otherwise, there may be a few early morning snow squalls across southern New England. After those diminish, temperatures may actually keep falling during the morning, with high temperatures barely making the low teens in Boston, and single digits across Worcester. A biting wind will bring dangerously cold wind chill temperatures of between 10 and 20 below zero for much of the day. Later in the day, the strong wind will slowly subside, which will make it slightly less harsh at that point.

As far as schools closing down due to the cold, I don’t agree with it. We have had much colder weather in years past. Temperatures in the teens is not extremely cold weather. However, I do believe it has more to do with the ongoing pandemic, and leaving windows open in schools for ventilation, more than the predicted cold weather. If kids are going to continue to live in New England, they have to learn our climate can be harsh at times. that doesn’t mean automatic day off. Of course in severe weather conditions, I would never want to jeopardize the safety of the children. At times, schools and businesses need to be shut down, for the safety of all citizens.

Tuesday night will feature bitterly cold temperatures. With winds diminishing, temperatures are going to plummet. Expect low temperatures to fall to 10 below zero across the deep interior, close to zero north & west of Rt 128, and zero to 5 above zero in Boston.

Wednesday will begin with bitter cold air, but temperatures will begin to moderate during the afternoon. With a southwesterly wind, watch for temperatures to rebound close to 32 degrees by days end.

Watch for similar weather on Thursday, with seasonably cold temperatures under dry conditions.

A large ocean storm will need to be monitored on Friday. Computer models show this storm passing about 300 miles to our east. Latest data shows this storm tracking slightly closer to New England. If this trend continues, we may enter the western flank of light precipitation which would be in the form of light snow across eastern Massachusetts and especially across Cape Cod. Another area to watch would be for the Maine coast, especially Downeast region. I do believe the brunt of this storm is going to miss, however we have seen these storms in recent years trend west at the last minute, so I will continue to monitor the track, just in case!

After that storm passes, there may be more inclement weather this weekend. Nothing to be too concerned about at the moment, but an onshore wind may bring some periods of light snow in from off of the ocean. Another weak clipper storm may track south of New England on Sunday bringing more periods of snow. Again, at the moment it doesn’t look like any of these storms are going to impact our weather with anything serious. However, as I always say, I will update everyone if conditions warrant or change unexpectedly. If we miss these storms, there are other threats lining up for the second half of January. I will following these potential storms and will be sure to keep everyone posted!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing in more detail how our evolving winter pattern could lead to a blockbuster east coast storm. I will also have your latest ski and snowboarding forecast. I may also include a outdoor ice skating rink forecast. It’s been a few years since I did a forecast for that fun activity! Also, please note, use extreme caution if you are planning on venturing out on lakes and ponds. If you want my opinion, I would say stay off! We’ve had our share of cold lately, but remember the very warm day on Sunday? This creates a very unstable ice that is very unreliable. In the meantime, embrace the climate of New England! In six short months, we will be flocking to the beach!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

New Year…New Pattern! 1/3/22

Hello, & Happy New Year to all! I hope everyone was able to spend some time with friends & family over the holidays season! There wasn’t too much in the way of wintry weather, although there was some freezing rain on Christmas Day. and many up in New Hampshire and Maine received snow on Christmas night. At least it wasn’t in the 60’s like last year! The New Year arrived on a mild, foggy and drizzly note. While it was foggy and drizzly up here in New England, portions of the mid Atlantic region were basking in the 60’s and 70’s to bring in the New Year. The ironic twist to this, is that they are now receiving a their first major snowstorm of the season today! In some cases, this is their first significant storm is nearly 3 years.

While all this is happening, this storm is moving more east, instead of north. This means the heavy snow today will be sailing harmlessly out to sea to our south, passing well south of Boston. It looks like much of Cape Cod may receive 1 to 2″ of snow, while Nantucket, being closer to the storm, may get clipped by some heavy snow later today and receive 3 to 5″ of snow. If you’re asking, is it unusual for areas well south of New England to receive their first inch of snow before Boston does, the answer would be yes! So far, only a measly .4″ (4 tenths of an inch) of snow has fallen at Logan Airport this winter. I have seen pictures of some places receiving up to 4″ of snow as far south as Georgia and Alabama yesterday! Today, places like Washington D.C. and parts of Virginia and southern New Jersey may receive between 6 and 10″ of snow!

It’s unusual. but not unprecedented. By now, the Boston area should of received at least their first snowfall with accumulation. There have been years in the past when snow droughts extended deep into January, such as 1999, 2007, and recent as 2019. It’s also unusual that areas in the deep south have received more snow than Boston has at this point in the season. This is due to a very energetic jet stream, and unusual storm tracks. So far, storms have either passed by to tour north, south, or there have been no storms at all!

A large dome of high pressure (warm & dry) parked itself across the center of the nation this past December, keeping much of the country well above average for the month. Meanwhile, record setting cold and snowfall has gripped much of Alaska, western Canada, and also parts of the Pacific northwest. This cold air even filtered down into central California around Christmas time. At the same time, a very large and intense cold storm began plunging down from the Gulf of Alaska tracking directly across the Sierra Nevada mountain range, Lake Tahoe region. If you love snow, that was the place to be the week between Christmas & New Year! An astounding 16 ft of snow fell, burying ski resorts and villages!

Meanwhile, we could barely buy a snowflake around the Boston area! The December review is nice & easy. Overall, temperatures were well above normal, and precipitation was well below normal. As you can imagine, only three tenths of an inch of snow fell this December. Obviously, my forecast for December was way off. What once looked like it would turn stormy and cold, definitely trended towards the west coast, leaving us high and dry. There was nothing good about the December forecast, the whole thing was complete bust.

While spending time with family & friends over the holidays, many were asking me if it’s going to snow this winter? The short answer to this question, is yes. There has never been one winter in recorded history when it has not snowed in Boston. The big question is, how much? The least amount of snow recorded was in the 1936-37 winter, when only 9.3″ was measured! In recent memories, the blow torch winter of 2011-12 just squeaked by not being the least ever recorded, with only 9.4″ observed! I’m not sure of the temperatures, but I remember 2011-12 winter as being incredibly warm. Winter was essentially over in February, and people were going to the beach in March! It’s true!

I’m am not expecting this to be the case this year! My winter forecast called for volatility, with one month being completely different from the other. Overall, I was expecting above average snow in Boston, with below average temperatures. Unless there is a major shift to bitterly cold weather, it looks like the temperature part of my forecast is not going to verify. However, it indeed may be colder than normal for January and February. It will be interesting whether these two months equal out December and we finish close to average. Remember, we take an average of all three months of winter to check the forecast in the end.

With such a slow start to winter, the snowfall forecast may too fall short. This does not mean I’m going to change the forecast or throw in the towel. I still believe winter is coming this year, and my forecast for between 50 and 60″ of snow in Boston this winter will verify in the end. And the end may not be until sometime in April this year! Remember all those mild days we enjoyed this past December? It’s very likely March will be colder than December on average this year, with frequent snowfalls.

In the near term, I’m expecting a much more active January this year! In my winter forecast, I focused on January to feature some harsh wintry conditions. Looking over the long range data, I am expecting January to feature above normal snowfall in Boston, and near to slightly below average temperatures, with several cold blasts punctuated with some mild days too. Boston typically receives approximately 14″ of snow in January. We have received as much as 44″ of snow back in 2005, and as little as a trace in 2004.

Could I be wrong? Yes! All options are still on the table, ranging from 1 to 60″! Computer models are still unresolved, and frequently changing their solutions for the remainder of the winter. I’m not going to flip flop. I’m sticking with my original thoughts! I believe the toughest part of winter still lies ahead of us! I’m expecting an active January, a slight pull back in February, then winter to resume & linger deep into March this year. All totaled, I believe Boston will surprise many with snowfall accumulations.

We can never really write off winter around here. There have been many late winter blitzes, yielding heavy snowfalls. The epic record winter of 2014-15 didn’t get started until January 24th. Many remember the 1996-97 winter which featured only 27″ of snow until the massive April Fools’ Blizzard hit with 2 to 3 ft of heavy wet snow falling on April 1st! Back in the famed 1977-78 winter Boston did not receive much snowfall until the first blizzard hit on January 20th, followed by The Great Blizzard of 1978 in early February. Then there was the real wacky winter of 1969, when winter didn’t arrive until the 100 hour snowstorm arrived on February 24th lasting through the 28th, when many areas of eastern Massachusetts received between 3 and 4 ft of snow. The snow guns continued that year well into March with several more storms!

Before I get to the forecasts, I wanted to give a quick 2021 year in review! Last year was the warmest year on record in Boston. Nearly every month featured above average temperatures except February, July, and November. It was also the 16th wettest on record. You may of thought it wetter, but January, March, November and December were very dry months. July, August, September and October were wet months, with July being exceptionally wet. Snowfall was way below average, with only February featuring any snow of significance. Overall, it was a very warm, humid, wet year, with little in the way of cold & snow. If you love winter, it was a year to not soon forget!

Time for your ski & snowboarding forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10, weighted heavily for this weekend! Expect generally dry and cold weather this week through Thursday. There may be a brief one day moderation on Wednesday, before colder temperatures arrive late this week. While today’s storm is sailing to our south, Friday could be an entirely different story. I’m expecting a storm to begin to develop across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. Computer models are showing a dynamic system approaching New England Thursday night into Friday morning, with cold air charging down from the north, and warm air to our south. The exact track of this storm will determine how much snow is going to fall. Right now, I’m looking for a good sized storm for much of ski country. Let’s go with a widespread 8+ inches at this early juncture, starting Thursday night, and ending later on Friday. Skiing should be the best so far this early season come this weekend!

Now for our regional outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. As I have mentioned earlier, we are missing a snowstorm to our south today. Expect cloudy and gray skies for the remainder of the day. It will look like snow, smell like snow, but I doubt we see even a flurry around Boston. It’s just too dry around here! If you live on the Cape, you will see a period of snow this afternoon, which may continue into this evening. Roads may become slippery, with between 1 and 3″ falling. If you happen to live on Nantucket Island, you are 30 miles close to the ocean storm, and may receive between 4 and 6″ of snow before it winds down after midnight. By the way, we have astronomical King Tides occurring today. With a slight onshore flow, there have been reports of minor coastal flooding in Downtown Boston, and other coastal cities and towns. Inundations such as this was not as common of a occurrence in years past as it is today.

Around here, expect clearing skies later tonight, with lows falling into the teens and 20’s.

If you are sun deprived, fear not! The sun will be back in all its glory tomorrow. It will be brisk, with highs in the 30’s. Watch for increasing clouds tomorrow night, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s.

A fast flow will bring another weak system through New England on Wednesday. As this system approaches, winds will veer more southwest, bringing milder weather back into much of New England, with highs approaching 50 all over again.

A cold front will swing through New England Wednesday night. This will introduce somewhat colder weather for Thursday. As mentioned above, late week storm system is the one I will be tracking this week. This storm will be developing across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. The exact track will determine what effects if any this storm has on us here in southern New England. The European (ECMWF)  computer model is tracking this storm just south of New England and rapidly intensifying it Thursday night and Friday. While it keeps the storm progressive, which means it keeps it moving right along, it also develops a band of heavy snow across our area.

Nonetheless, if this track verifies, much of our area, especially just inland towards Rt 128, could be looking at a 6 to 12″ snowstorm on Friday. Boston could be dealing with some mixing issues, keeping accumulations down a bit, but still has the potential to bring our first plowable snowfall to the region, including Boston. However, if the storm tracks closer, and passes near Boston, the rain/snow line will push further inland, say beyond I495. This would be a good track for ski resorts for a heavy snowfall, but not good for snow along coastal Massachusetts. For what it’s worth, the American model (GFS) sails the storm harmlessly out to sea. As you can see, there are still several solutions on the table here. I will be monitoring the storm over the course of the week, and will have an important update Thursday evening if conditions warrant.

As the storm pulls away later Friday, it will turn colder for Saturday, with dry conditions. Another weak storm will approach New England on Sunday with showers in southern New England, and mixed rain and snow showers up north.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing the weather patterns for January, our coldest month of the year, in more detail. I will also elaborate a bit more about my winter forecast. As more information comes in, I will update everyone, though I will not be changing the original forecast. I will also have a new ski and snowboarding forecast. In the meantime, dust the cobwebs off the shovels…we may need them sooner rather than later!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

A Few Festive Flakes? 12/20/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a tale of two seasons across New England this weekend. If you traveled or live over the Massachusetts border into N.H., you received between 3 and 6″ of snow later Saturday into Saturday night. In general, the further north one lives, the more snow you received. There were some reports of up to 8 to 10″ in some of the ski resorts in Vermont and New Hampshire. Maine? It always seems to snow in Maine, where they received between 4 and 7″ of snow. You may of noticed a splattering of snow around Boston, which quickly changed to rain inside of Rt 128. There was a coating of snow in some communities in Boston away from the ocean. This all got washed away come Sunday morning. Sunday was a brisk and colder day, with fast moving clouds, along with a few sunny breaks.

Sorry for the late posting today, my time is very limited…so this is going to be short and to the point.

We are already nearly one third through the winter season, and so far, the winter forecast has been a dumpster fire! You may say, Pete, winter doesn’t even officially begin until tomorrow! This is absolutely true! How can I cancel winter before it even gets started? However, meteorological winter began on December 1st, and ends on February 28th. With hardly any snow so far this month, and five days that have hit 60 degrees this month, this knocks off one whole month of winter with hardly any wintry weather.

Yesterday, I posted in my weather forum blog on Weather Bell Analytics. The lack of active weather and snow events must of gotten the best of me, as I lashed out at Mother Nature for the lack of snow and cold weather, saying that Decembers always featured big snowstorms growing up as a kid here in Boston.  Not soon after, I was greeted with a response from amateur meteorologist who basically handed me a piece of humble weather history. I should of known better, as weather history and perspective on our climate is my specialty!

The fact of the matter, it does not snow any less in December than it had back in the 60’s and 70’s. The statistics prove it. He pointed out that every December is not going to feature 2 ft of snow in Boston. We average 9″ of snow in December at Logan Airport, which as you know, is quite variable from year to year. How quickly we forget, but it was just last December Boston got socked with over a foot of snow on the 17th! As I always enjoy saying to keep things in perspective, it’s the extremes that make our averages! Nothing more needs to be said on this subject. It all balances out in the end. Some years we get socked, others not so much!

So that brings us to my final winter update for the 2021-22 winter season. I’m always very hesitant at changing original ideas. While it worked out quite well increasing the number of 90 degree days last summer, it’s a completely different animal to tweak the winter forecast. I am still feeling the burn marks from the 2014-15 winter. While this was a complete anomaly, I will never forget what happened that year. My winter forecast posted in November of 2014 called for 100″ of snow in Boston.

As the days and weeks went by with hardly any snow, I pulled the plug on winter, and downgraded the whole forecast. Who would of ever thought Boston would receive 94″ of snow in just over three weeks from January 24th to February 15th! Boston went on to shatter its all time snowfall record with 110.6″ of snow falling that season!

So far this winter, Boston has only received .3″ of snow. You read that right, that’s three tenths of an inch of snow. My forecast for Boston this winter was for between 50 and 60″of snow. It’s impossible to forecast when all of this will fall. As a rule of thumb, I always mention that it could be an adventure as to how we achieve these numbers. Keeping in mind that I’m always weary about a snowless month or very little snow, only to receive a barrage of snow like 2015. I’m not expecting another 2014-15 winter. We may never see something like that in our lifetime again!

However, I still believe the ingredients are there for a period of severe winter weather this winter. I know it doesn’t look good right now, and I just may be too stubborn, but I truly believe my signals observed during November will come through for me in the end. What once was looking like a front loaded winter with plenty of snow in December, is now looking like it wants to hit later in the winter, say from January 15th to February 15th, then more in March.

Teleconnections that are going against me right now is the cold water sitting in the Gulf of Alaska and off Pacific Northwest coast. This promotes a pattern called a negative PNA, keeping a trough of low pressure (stormy & cold) out west. This is a classic La Nina pattern, and will likely bring a rare White Christmas to Vancouver B.C. and Seattle, Washington! Things going for a wintry pattern here in New England is high latitude blocking (Greenland Block) & a ton of cold air building up in western Canada. There are also strong signals that the polar vortex could get disrupted or even split sometime in February. If this happens, a period of severe winter weather is more likely. This is why I believe later in the season, the cold will have enough power to overwhelm much of the country. New England will be close to this battle zone, with frequent storms tracking close enough to bring significant snows and cold, later in the winter.

On the flip side, if the Greenland Block disappears, the southeast ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) is going to expand up into New England, bringing a quick end to winter. If this happens, there’s a slight possibility Boston ends up with hardly any snow at all this winter, and possibly the least snowiest winter on record. I’m not going with this forecast right now, but I have seen this prediction bouncing around out there, and to be quite honest, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities. Would be a nightmare, but I can see how it could happen. I’m also very concerned computer models keep showing dry patterns across the eastern part of the country. No doubt it’s a forecasting dilemma! If I downgrade the forecast, and winter arrives in full force, it would be 2014-15 all over again. The signs are there for a dud winter, but it’s hard to believe that can happen for the fourth winter in a row!

So there it is! I’m sticking with the original forecast! If it pans out, it would be one of my best calls ever! If it goes down in flames, at least I went down swinging!

Any chance for a White Christmas? If you live north of the Massachusetts border, not only will you have a White Christmas, but there may actually be snow falling on Christmas Day! Unfortunately for us here in southern New England, it looks more wet than white. Although, don’t be surprised if you see some festive flakes floating around on Christmas Eve! I’m not anticipating anything more than a feather dusting if any accumulation at all. Whatever falls, will likely melt away by Christmas morning as the light precipitation changes to rain showers around here.

Now for your ski and snow boarding forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out 0f 10. Thank goodness for the snowfall last Saturday which brought between 5 and 9″ of snow to many resorts. In addition, it will be cold enough at night for resorts to make plenty of snow for the big holiday weekend. As mentioned above, there will also be some natural snow falling on Christmas Day itself! How perfect will that be!

Now for our weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect mainly clear and cold weather overnight, with lows dropping into the teens and 20’s.

Look for plenty of sun to start your Tuesday, It will be cold at first, but watch for a milder afternoon, with highs warming into the mid 40’s. High clouds may tens to increase blotting out the sun at the time of sunset. Tuesday is the also the first day of winter! The winter solstice arrives at 10:59 AM. Tomorrow is the shortest day of the year, Starting on Wednesday, the days will begin to lengthen…only by a few seconds at first, but will begin to accelerate as we head into January and especially February.

A storm system gathering strength off the east coast, will track northeast and graze us here in eastern Massachusetts. There will be a period of light rain early Wednesday, which may freeze on some surfaces early in the morning, north and west of Rt 128. As the storm intensifies, it may hit down east Maine with a quick snowstorm of 4 to 8″, especially inland areas. This storm is predicted to really explode in the Canadian Maritimes and hit Newfoundland with quite a snowstorm on Thursday.

This circulation around this storm will drive somewhat colder air back into the region on Thursday, with highs mainly in the 30’s, with a mix of sun and clouds.

A warm front will approach New England on Christmas Eve. At first, it will struggle to make progress, stalling south of New England. Weak disturbances will ripple along the warm front and there may be just enough lift to produce some patchy areas of light snow and flurries on Christmas Eve. Wouldn’t that be nice! The front may become a bit more active heading into Christmas morning, with another disturbance tracking across mainly northern New England. This may bring steady light snow across much of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine especially during the morning and perhaps early afternoon. There may be enough snow for slippery travel so please monitor the situation. It will become too warm for snow down here, and we will just see some morning rain showers and milder temperatures, especially during the afternoon. A cold front will sweep the entire system off the coast on Saturday night, leading to a brisk and chilly day on Sunday, with little chance of any additional precipitation.

Well, that’s about it for now! I have family commitments nest Monday, so there will be no post, unless a storm system threatens, which does not look likely at this time. If I have time, I may write a brief post keeping tabs on our changing weather patterns and forecast for the final week of the year. If not, I will talk to everyone on Monday, January 3rd! In the meantime, if you enjoy having snow around Christmas, keep the faith as miracles do happen!

Wishing everyone a safe & happy Holiday Season!

Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to all those who celebrate!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Dreaming of A White Christmas? 12/13/21

Hello! Where is the time going! Less than 2 weeks away from Christmas! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a 50/50 weekend around here weather wise. Saturday started off on the raw & damp side, with tropical downpours tracking across New England. These were mainly in the liquid form along the coast, but temperatures were stubborn to rise above freezing across the Merrimack Valley and southern New Hampshire, leading to some icy areas. This was scoured out by evening, as southerly gales increased across the region, soaring temperatures up into the 60’s. It was actually colder inside than it was out! A squall line tracked across New England Saturday night, bringing with it more torrential downpours and winds which gusted up to 60 mph in spots! Later, as the front cleared the coast, temperatures dropped some 20 degrees, but was still mild for this time of the year. Sunday featured a mix of sun and clouds & breezy conditions. It was much cooler than Saturday, but I would stop before calling it cold.

By the way, the cold front that passed through Saturday night was actually associated with the deadly tornado which struck Kentucky Friday night. Nighttime tornadoes are especially frightening, as the only time you can see them is when lightning flashes! There were many photos and videos catching the massive tornado as lightning lit up the sky. No doubt, you would hear this coming, sounding like a B52 military plane flying 50 ft above your home. Preliminary estimates are calling it either an EF4 or EF5 on the Fujita scale. Either way, the path of destruction was catastrophic. It may go down as the longest tracking December tornado in recorded history. Thoughts and prayers go out to the folks of Kentucky who were caught in the path of this destructive storm. Yes, tornadoes occur in December. However, to have one this large and travel for nearly 300 miles is just about unprecedented any time of the year.

Well, last weeks forecast worked out quite well, right up until Saturday. Wednesday evening indeed brought the regions first light snowfall of the season. It was enough to whiten the ground across much of the Boston area. Most received a dusting, but there were a few reports of 1 to 2″ across the interior.  The call for colder and snow for Sunday did not materialize. Sometimes computer models show something, then the next run it’s an entirely different solution. In the current pattern we are in, I should of known it was bad information. Computer models frequently change from a week out. The more reliable forecasts are in the short term, which is 1 to 3 days out, medium range is 4 to 6 days, and long range is 7 to 10 days out. For those traveling and needing to finish outdoor projects, I’m glad the forecast did not verify.

It’s that time of year again, we are less than two weeks away from Christmas, and many are asking whether it will be white or green? Statistically speaking, you would be surprised to know how the low the chances are for a White Christmas across much of the country. Here in New England, our chances are better, especially if one lives across the interior and up north. Anywhere inside I95/128, it’s basically between a 25% to 50% chance of White Christmas. Closer to 25% or 1 and 4 chance in Boston, to 50% chance if you live close to 128 north & west of the city. Percentages increase the further west, with close to 60% chance across Worcester County and 75% chance up into New Hampshire. Further north into New Hampshire & Maine, the chances increase to 90%, with near 100% chance of a White Christmas in northern Maine.

But that’s not always the case! These percentages are averages over the course of many years. We may have a streak of a few white ones in a row, only to have many years in a row with no snow. For instance, last year was terrible, with a nuclear meltdown of the snow pack on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day right up to the Canadian border! Strong southerly winds transported temperatures up into the 60’s along with thick fog and torrential downpours. Previous White Christmas’s in Boston were 2017, 2010, 2009, 2008 & 1997. There were many close calls, with many years seeing snow melt just before Christmas, and other years seeing snowstorms arrive just after Christmas, or during the day itself.

The official definition by the NWS (National Weather Service) for a White Christmas is to have one inch of snow or more on the ground at 7:00 AM on Christmas morning. So you can see it can get very tricky if you go by the book! I remember a big snowstorm occurred on Christmas day back in 2002. It was raining in Boston for half the storm, and didn’t turn to snow until later in the day. The snow then proceeded to accumulate 7″, but it was not officially called a White Christmas. By the way, many towns were snowed in with that storm, with up to two feet falling across interior parts of Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire!

Bottom line, your chances for snow on the ground on Christmas increase dramatically if you live 25 miles inland away from the ocean. Chances for a “Currier & Ives” Christmas or “Hallmark” Christmas are best across Vermont, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine, away from the coast. However, with all that being said, White Christmas’s have been hard to come by in recent years, mainly due to our warming climate. I’m not saying they’re gone for good, but the cycle has not been in our favor in recent years!

What about this year?? I would give it about a 25% chance in Boston. Not that good! Similar to many December’s in recent years…it’s been warm. We were in the 60’s just last Saturday, and stand to hit 60 once more later this week. You can’t sustain any snow on the ground for long, or even think about a snowstorm with temperatures like this. Like I spoke about last week, the pattern for this week consists of a big ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) across the central and eastern part of the United Sates, and a big trough of low pressure (cold & stormy), across the far west, including areas of California. What this means is there is almost zero chances for any snow this week across most of southern New England.

However, all is not lost. There is still a chance! Beginning next week, there are indications that the pattern is going to begin to change. Are we talking arctic cold blasts and historic blizzards? No, not at first anyway. Right when the solstice arrives, December 21st this year, the Greenland Block (high pressure building across Greenland) may begin to turn the North Atlantic Oscillation negative. If this is true, the block may tend to squash the big ridge of high pressure currently centered across the eastern U.S., and could open the door for colder temperatures, and perhaps the chance of a coastal system a week from tomorrow. From this far out, it’s difficult to determine whether it will be cold enough to support any snow around Boston. Long range computer models do show some accumulation showing up next week. Not so much along the coast, but a good bit inland. This would be tremendous news for the ski resorts, who have had barely any natural snow so far this December. We shall see, it seems like every time I make a long range projection like this, the day ends up being sunny and in the 40’s.

After Christmas and heading towards the New Year, computer models are showing the potential for more storminess and colder temperatures. As I mentioned in my winter forecast, I was projecting January to feature very wintry conditions. Next week, I will be updating my overall winter forecast with a final call. It’s difficult to say whether I will be making any changes to the original forecast. My summer forecast revision worked out real well, as I increased the 90 degree days to reflect the hotter temperatures anticipated in August. The upgrade called for between 19 and 23 ninety degree days, with Boston coming in with 24 for the season. I’m glad I have another week to review all the long range data, my forecast can go either way at this point. There’s about a 40% chance that I may actually downgrade the total snowfall projections for this winter…but this is all still under interpretation.

Now for a quick segment of weather history. Back on this date, December 13th 2007, a fast moving intense storm tracked from west to east passing just south of New England. This storm brought the city to a gridlock! The morning was just gray and cold, as we awaited snow to arrive by noontime from west to east. Preliminary forecast projections was for between 4 and 8″ of snow. As the storm approached, a wall of snow arrived with it. Somehow computer models underestimated the intensity of the snow, as the snow fell at rates of between 2 and 3″ per hour for about 5 hours during the afternoon. The problem is everyone was released from schools and businesses at the same time, Plows could not clear the snow, and gridlock ensued across the entire city! Many people abandoned their vehicles, while it took others 8 hours to travel 25 miles! Parents were extremely worried as school buses took hours to bring children home safely. Between 10 and 12″ of snow fell that afternoon, and memories of a nightmare commute that will never be forgotten! Because of this storm, the city implemented drastic changes on early dismissals from schools. In many cases, they just call off school to avoid anything like this from happening again.

Now for your weekly ski and snowboard forecast. Unfortunately, ski resorts have gotten off to a much slower start than anticipated. We shall hope for colder weather next week, and the prospects for new snow! For this week, i will give the rating a 4 out of 10. Far northern resorts have been able to make snow, but the rain on Saturday turned it icy. Snow groomers can perform miracles these days, so conditions improved dramatically the day after. Most of this week should be dry. A storm may approach this weekend. It may be just cold enough to support some wintry precipitation across the highest mountains. Otherwise, expect any frozen precipitation to turn to rain on Saturday. It will turn colder thereafter, with the next potential storm system to arrive next Tuesday. This should be a colder storm, and may provide accumulating snow to much of ski country. I will keep you posted with another update next Monday. Remember, it’s still early in the season. In most years, ski season typically kicks off over the Christmas holidays and picks up steam from there.

Now for our weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10. Basically more April like than December.

Expect mostly sunny skies for the rest of this afternoon. It will be on the mild side, with highs mainly in the 40’s. Watch for mainly clear and chilly weather for tonight, with lows in the 20’s.

Tuesday should feature a mix of sun and clouds. It will be a bit breezy and possibly slightly cooler than toady, with highs in the mid 40’s. I’m expecting fair and seasonably cold weather for Tuesday night, with lows in the 20’s again.

Expect generally fair & milder weather for the period Wednesday through Friday this week. A warm front will be crossing the region later Wednesday, which may bring clouds and a few showers Wednesday night. These showers should move out of the picture early Thursday. If we see any sun, it’s possible temperatures may spike to 60 degrees again. These mild temperatures should linger into Friday as well.

A cold front will pass through New England later Friday. This will introduce cooler weather this weekend. At the same time, a low pressure system will be tracking over or just south of southern New England on Saturday, bringing with it a period of rain. It looks too warm for any snow around here, but it may be just cold enough for some snow at the beginning of the system well inland, to the north and west of I495, and higher terrain of Worcester County and the Berkshires. As mentioned above, there may be some frozen precipitation in the mountains of northern New England, if the storm tracks close enough.

Thereafter, this storm system will clear the coast later Saturday, leading to better weather for your Sunday, with clearing skies and brisk wind. Temperatures will be cool, but certainly not cold for this time of the year.

As mentioned above, another storm may track up the coast next Tuesday. This has the potential to bring heavier precipitation to the region. Right now, it looks like mainly rain along the coast, but heavy snow inland and the mountains. I will update everyone with that a week from today.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my updated winter forecast. I will also have your Christmas forecast, and a new ski and snowboarding outlook. In the meantime, if you’re dreaming of a White Christmas…some dreams are meant to come true!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Rapid Changes…Then First Snow! 12/6/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a seasonal weekend weather wise, perhaps a touch below normal, but nothing extreme for this time of year. Each day featured a mix of sun & clouds, as weak systems passed through our area. Overall. it was a great weekend to put up the Christmas decorations, go for a hike in the woods, or walk in the park!

Last week I mentioned how my friends William & Brett (William has roots in Boston) out in Denver, Colorado are in the midst of a unprecedented snow drought! Hard to believe they have only measured .1″ of snow at Denver International Airport. This is literally nothing! I know there are major geographic differences between the two cities, but I like to think that we have a few things in common when it comes to snow! This snow drought reminds me all too much of the snow drought Boston observed back in 2018-19 winter.

On November 15th of that year, the Boston area received quite a significant snowfall for that time of the year. Most areas of the city received about a half a foot of heavy wet snow. However, oddly enough, the official observation site at Logan Airport only measured .1″ of snow. Many local meteorologists and weather observers were dumbfounded with the measurement, and is still the butt of many jokes in the weather community even to this day.

And so it stood. Through the rest of November, and I believe through all of  December, .1″ at Logan Airport! For my friends in Denver, I feel your pain! We finally began receiving some snowfall in the new year, but needless to say, the season ended up with below average snowfall in Boston that year. I should say below average at Logan Airport. I remember somewhat of a rally later that winter which brought near normal snowfall to surrounding communities. It’s possible they didn’t have the right person measuring the snow that winter? Which is a shame because it could throw off climatology if not performed properly.

How is Boston doing this year? Not good! In fact, my friends in Denver may be surprised to know Boston has only a trace of snow so far this season! I believe a trace is somehow less than .1″! Whatever it is, is very minuscule indeed! For Denver, this is highly unusual. For Boston, not so much. Sitting next to the warm Atlantic Ocean, it’s not unusual for Boston to get off to a slow start in the snow season. This is especially true in a warmer climate we are living in today. Our snowiest weather arrives in January, prime time in February, and many times lingers into March.

With all that being said, we are now in December, and things typically begin to change quickly around here! Last week, I gave my December outlook, and already it doesn’t look like it will be what I was thinking it was going to be! It only took a short week for computer models to throw out the idea of an early winter around here! Make no mistake about it, we are living in a warmer climate right now. Will it stay like this forever? Nobody really has the answer to this question. Computer models tend to think so, but they couldn’t even get December right!

For now, let’s try and stick to the immediate future. It’s not out of the question we spike to the low 60’s one or two more times before Christmas. I know, this is a huge change to what I was talking about last week! Teleconnections collapsed on me after I wrote the December forecast. What was looking cold, is now looking more warm. The Greenland Block disappeared, and a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) is building across the center of the country. Eventually, this ridge is going to slowly migrate towards the eastern part of the United States. All the cold air will be centered across Alaska, the west and northwest part of the country through at least December 20th. It’s possible that even my friends in Denver finally receive their first snowfall!

Does this mean cancel winter? No, I am not cancelling winter! I am not making any changes to my overall winter forecast, other than to say right now, December looks like it may average a bit warmer than normal. But remember, winter is over a three month period, and I always say, we have to see what the overall average is going to be in the end. When I give a forecast, I always give a disclaimer that it’s never going to end up the way we think it’s going to be. We may indeed get to the numbers I talked about, but it’s always an adventure on how we get there. This means, one month may be above normal, and the next two may be below. We take an average of all three to reveal how warm or cold the winter ends up being at the end.

What is happening is that La Nina (cold water in the southern Pacific Ocean) is flexing her muscles. La Nina winters are highly volatile here in New England. We can oscillate from mild tranquil stretches, only to be followed by cold & snowy periods. I truly believe that this is not how the rest of the winter is going to be. If it is, my winter forecast will go up in flames! In fact, I can already see a possible change to the pattern beginning around the 20th of December. There are signs of a Greenland Block re-emerging, which would squash the warm weather to our south, and send colder temperatures to New England the last 10 days of the month.

It’s possible, not a certainty at this point, that this December may be somewhat of the opposite to last December. Remember the big snowstorm we received on December 17th last year? If not, a good 12 to 18″ of snow fell across the Boston area. A White Christmas looked to be a lock. However, as fate would have it, an anomalous southerly wind surged our temperatures into the upper 50’s on Christmas Eve. But wait…it got worse. A strong frontal boundary approached New England on Christmas Day, which increased the pressure gradient, resulting in even stronger southerly winds, and sending temperatures into the 50’s and low 60’s right up to the Canadian border on Christmas Day. In addition, fog and heavy rain fell all day, wiping out every last bit of snow that remained pretty much all across New England. Ugh!!!!

Maybe this year the opposite will happen?  I do see signs of a cool down by Christmas. Whether we have a chance for a storm around that time and if it’s cold enough is another story altogether. I will continue to monitor these trends, but before then, count on rapidly changing weather conditions with warm periods punctuated by cold shots. What I’m saying at this early juncture, it’s looking more promising for wintry weather for the holidays than last year.

Besides, I am a firm believer our worst winters almost always wait until the winter solstice arrives! There have been many years of large snowstorms in early December, only to have the rest of winter fizzle. What I am seeing is very concerning as we head into the new year. I am seeing computer models building arctic air in Canada, not just in western Canada, even across eastern Canada above New England. My experience tells me slowly sinking arctic air into New England delivers the biggest punches in winter! Fast arctic blasts come and go, and leaves us with a lot of snow changing to rain events, and susceptible to warm surges. This is when we do not have any blocking to slow the progress to these systems. Latest indications are showing Greenland Blocking developing later this month, and could prove to be the catalyst in dropping the arctic hammer here in New England.

Now, before we settle into the warm pattern, there are still a couple ripples in the jet stream that need to track through New England. The first one is a digging trough coming in tonight with wind and rain. Before that arrives, you can expect a windy and warm afternoon around Boston, with temperatures rising up to near 60! After the front crashes through this evening, cold air will rush back into the region, and it will be back to December tomorrow!

The second is a small storm system that will be developing across the mid Atlantic region. Over the weekend, computer models were blowing this storm up into quite a snowstorm for us on Wednesday. They backed way off yesterday, only to creep back north today. With enough cold air in place, it’s looking like there’s a good chance for the Boston area to receive its first snowfall Wednesday into Wednesday night. Latest computer models are showing a general 1 to 3″ snowfall. However, some of this will be falling during the day, and will not be able to accumulate efficiently. Therefore, I would chop this amount to about an inch or two, manly accumulating during the early evening Wednesday. Locations across southeastern Massachusetts may receive a little enhancement off of the ocean, so it would not shock me if they received a snowfall of between 2 and 4″. I will talk more about this potential in my forecast shortly.

Now for a brief segment of weather history. This is a very historical date for big snowstorms around here! In fact, back in 2003, the Boston area experienced a two day nor’easter from December 5th through the 7th. A slow moving nor’easter produced prolific snowfall amounts, not too far away from downtown Boston! In fact, some areas of the North Shore of Boston received up to 38″ of snow! In the city, 2 ft were common, but at Gillette Stadium out in Foxborough, 30″ of snow was measured as the Patriots played the Miami Dolphins! It was surreal seeing the gigantic snowbanks inside the stadium, as it was impossible for crews to clean out the snow in time. It was actually still snowing lightly during the game.

Like I mentioned earlier, that was the biggest snowstorm of the year for that entire winter. The rest of December proved to be mild, and of course all the snow melted before Christmas. January turned out to be a brutally cold month, but with very little snow. Things warmed back up again in February and March, with a few small snow events, but surprisingly, the winter ended up with below normal snowfall across much of the region. Early season snowstorms do not correlate to bad winters.

Now for your ski and snowboarding forecast. I am rating this week a 5 out of 10. Boy, ski resorts could of used that midweek snowstorm. As the storm blossoms, they may receive a light snowfall along with the rest of us. However, a major storm is not anticipated at the moment. I will be monitoring this just in case it changes. Otherwise, expect rapidly changing temperatures this week, ranging from very cold tomorrow and Wednesday, to milder Thursday and Friday. Then another storm may approach this weekend bringing an icy mixture to the mountains, which may to turn to snow on Sunday? Latest computer data shows another blast of cold air catching up to the storm this weekend, which may mean a turn to wintry weather on Sunday. Another warm up may be on tap next week before a significant change to cold are possible just before Christmas.

This has been and continues to be the warmest year on record here in Boston. It has also been one of the wettest years as well, along with a very warm, wet fall. Things changed somewhat in November, as colder temperatures brought November in at exactly neutral departures. Meaning it wasn’t warmer nor was it colder for the month. Departures came in at exactly zero, which is very rare to see here in Boston! If you recall, this is one of my strongest signals I rely on for my winter forecast. The closer the departures for November are to zero, the more severe the winter will be. Hmm…let’s see how that works out!

Now time for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Lots of rapid changes!

Expect windy and warm temperatures for the rest of your afternoon. Even without much sun, temperatures are soaring to near 60 degrees.

A strong cold front will be tracking across New England this evening. This front will bring a period of heavy downpours and possibly even a fast thunderstorm. In any thunderstorm, there’s the chance of lightning, small hail, and sudden gusts of wind. As the front passes, watch for winds to shift to the west and gust to 30 to 40 mph, and temperatures to quickly plummet By morning, it will feel like December all over again! Dress warmly, as wind chills will make it feel like the teens and twenties early tomorrow morning.

Otherwise, expect a partly sunny and brisk day, with high temperatures only recovering into the mid to upper 30’s tomorrow.

Clear skies will give way to increasing high clouds tomorrow night. It will be cold, with lows in the 20’s.

As mentioned above, a weak storm will be passing to our southeast on Wednesday. At the same time a upper level system will be crossing the region. The combination of these two systems will likely mean light snow for much of the region, beginning by noontime, and continuing into Wednesday evening, ending by midnight. At first, the snow will be wet and not accumulate much. However, as the sun sets, it may begin to accumulate on surfaces. It’s not out of the question roads may become a bit slippery during the evening commute. Right now, I’m calling for 1 to 3″ across the Boston area. However, I must say computer models do not have a good handle on this system. It wouldn’t shock me if the storm amplified a bit more, resulting in amounts closer to the 3″ range, or fizzles and we hardly get a coating. Just be prepared for a period of snow later Wednesday into Wednesday evening. This is not expected to turn into a big storm, but if something changes, I will post an update.

Whatever happens on Wednesday, watch for clearing skies on Thursday with a continuation of chilly temperatures but nothing extreme for this time of the year at all. In fact, it may begin to turn mild again during the afternoon, helping to melt any snow.

I’m expecting dry weather and even milder temperatures for Friday, with highs in the 40’s.

A rather dynamic storm system will be approaching the region this weekend. This means cloudy and mild weather is on tap for Saturday. Watch for rain to develop later Saturday and be heavy at times overnight into Sunday. As I mentioned above, latest computer model data is showing a charge of arctic air into New England on Sunday. If there’s enough moisture left over, there’s a chance the rain turns to a period of snow across the interior with slippery travel conditions developing. Computer information even shows this snow making it into Boston, before ending late in the day. I will monitor this system closely as we make our way through the week.

Well that’s about it for now, friends! In next week’s blog, I will be assessing the ever changing weather patterns leading up to Christmas! I will also have a new ski and snowboarding forecast, as well as your weekly weather planner. In the meantime, get ready for a clash of the seasons, in other words…welcome to winter in New England!

Happy St. Nicholas Day & heavenly birthday to my father, Nick! Also happy Name Day to my nephew Nick, and my niece Nicole!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

December Outlook…11/29/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving holiday weekend! Overall, you couldn’t of asked for better weather for the holiday itself. The weather turned unsettled on Black Friday, with periods of light rain, which if you looked carefully enough, the rain did change to wet snow showers Friday evening. Other than some slushy coatings on some car tops, there was no accumulation with this system around Boston. However, this was not the case across much of interior New England, and especially higher elevations of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont. As the storm intensified off the coast, the snow became heavy in these areas, and the regions first snowstorm occurred! Even higher elevations of western Massachusetts received significant snowfall.

How much? many areas above 1500 ft received between 5 and 10″ of snow. This was perfect timing for ski resorts looking to open for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. As for the rest of the weekend, Saturday turned out to be a mainly sunny and chilly, with a brisk wind. Sunday turned cloudy, and if you were watching the Patriots game yesterday, you may of noticed some festive flurries falling throughout the game!

Another storm was possible today, but that vanished in overnight computer model runs. Some computer models were printing 2 to 4″ of snow in the Boston area this morning, with perhaps even a bit of a slippery morning commute. Anyone who bit on this data was once again bamboozled by the weather God’s! I must admit, I told my sister Pam that they may wake up to a winter wonderland this morning in the seacoast region of New Hampshire. I was a bit skeptical, but was anticipating at least a dusting of snow this morning. Even as an adult, it’s still so disappointing waking up and looking out the window and seeing no snow! And no, there was no snow for Pam, either!

Boston meteorologist Dave Epstein called it a “phantom” snowstorm, or “bad data” in the computer. Whatever happened, it was disappointing. The frustrating part about it, is that it was plenty cold enough to support snow in Boston this morning. Many times this time of year it’s just not cold enough, mainly due to the still relatively warm ocean temperatures, which modifies the climate.

Yes, there has been some interesting weather here in the waning days of November, especially across interior New England, where many received their first snowfall. Back at the beginning of the month I mentioned that this may be a November to remember in terms of possible wintry weather around Thanksgiving time. The ideas were right, but things just didn’t come together for that first real snowfall here along the coastal plain. Overall, it turned into quite a benign November, with fairly tranquil weather patterns pretty much from coast to coast, including here in New England.

Expect more of these type of patterns as we move through winter this year. No, I’m not already changing my winter forecast! I’m merely pointing out that La Nina winters are extremely fickle, with rapid changes, Along with periods of wintry weather this winter, I’m also expecting some tranquil warm spells. It’s the nature of the beast. Computer models have been very erratic, changing forecasts every run. This morning was a good example of this!

My thoughts have not wavered from last week. I’m still expecting above average snow across much of New England this winter. The disclaimer is that it may and probably will be an adventure on how we reach these numbers. Does it all come in a 4 to 6 week blitz? Is it strung out over the whole winter, which never makes it seem as bad. Do we get slammed with one or two blockbusters which make up the majority of the accumulation? These are questions that I’m unable to answer at this time. This is why I make the forecast as a general idea, or average over the course of 3 or 4 months. It’s not out of the question we have a day or two up into the 60’s in December, only to be followed by a snowstorm a few days later. That’s the type of winter I’m expecting. I still have higher than normal confidence that we see a period of severe winter weather this January, with the threat of a blizzard and bitterly cold temperatures.

I was chatting with my friends William & Brett from Denver, Colorado and they have been in the midst of an anomalous snow drought! They have yet to record any measurable snow at Denver International Airport this fall. This is the latest on record for them not to have received any snow. I carefully monitor these patterns across the Rocky Mountain region, and how it relates to us here in New England. When these big ridges of high pressure (warm & dry) anchor themselves in this region, a trough of low pressure (cold & stormy) is the weather downstream across the eastern part of the U.S. including New England. As we get deeper into winter, even in December, this pattern can amplify, resulting in a possible large east coast storm.

For my friends out in Denver, there is hope. Computer models are predicting this ridge to break down in about 10 days from now. All November long, tremendous amounts of cold air has been building across Alaska. Jet stream patterns are predicted to break down, allowing this cold air to dislodge from Alaska and possibly take aim towards the western part of the country, including Colorado. With the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures much colder than average this year, this pattern makes sense. This would bring a shocking end to the warm weather & snow drought in Colorado region.

If this does indeed occur, this would flip the pattern around, leading to a ridge of high pressure for us here in New England in about 10 days from now. This would temporarily bring a period of mild weather to much of the eastern part of the United States for a 5 to 7 day period. Before that happens, there may be some surprises in store for us here in New England. I will get to this information shortly!

While November precipitation and storm patterns did not work out this year, my forecast for temperatures was on point! Many outlets included NOAA were forecasting a continuation of warm temperatures in November, I saw signs that showed it to be a colder month. Indeed, it proved to be a much colder month than October, relative to averages. This is not saying much, as November is typically cooler than October because it’s one month closer to winter, for one. With that being said, the official forecast for November was for above normal temperatures.

My forecast called for a roller coaster type of temperatures pattern, where we would end up near neutral departures at the closing of the month. With colder than normal weather for today and again for tomorrow, it looks like Boston is going to finish neutral to possibly even slightly below average for the month. We shall see when the official numbers come out late tomorrow evening.

My theory is the closer to normal the temperature departure is for November, the greater the snowfall occurs in Boston the following winter. This is especially true when it’s slightly below normal, within one degree. The warmer the departure, like in November 2015 and 2011, the city averages below normal snowfall. Same can be said if it’s too cold…departures of 3 degrees below average typically yield less snowfall than average. It’s not perfect, as there are years when this calculation does not pan out, but I think I’m onto something this year!

My only concern is the lack of precipitation this November. After torrential rainfall this past summer and fall, the water spigot finally has been shut off! November has featured much less than average precipitation. Normally, I look at precipitation patterns in November to see what the storm pattern will be. One thing I’m concerned about is a colder but drier winter, with below average storminess. Plus 2″ of snowfall in November along with the temperature data is statistically a very good sign for well above average snow in Boston. We did not receive any snowfall accumulation at Logan Airport this November other than I believe a trace on Friday night. This is one reason I kept the snowfall prediction on the conservative side. Otherwise, it could of turned into a blockbuster season!

This leads us to our first month of meteorological winter, which begins on Wednesday, December 1st. I am expecting a month of rapid changes. Mother Nature is going to appease most folks with a little bit of everything. I believe there is the potential for one or two snowstorms this month. Logan Airport averages 8″ of snow in December, with much more in surrounding towns. I’m forecasting above average snowfall across much of the region this December. Let’s go for between 12 and 15″ in Boston, but much more the further inland you live. I’m also expecting several cold blasts, but also punctuated with a  period of mild to warm weather during the middle of the month, between December 10th and 20th,  which will temper the harsh start to winter.

White Christmas? Well, anything is better than last year! If you recall, we had a White Christmas right up until Christmas Eve. However, a very unusual blast of warm and rainy weather wiped all the snow away by Christmas morning, right up to the Canadian border! If the long range data is correct, another pattern change could arrive just before Christmas this year, with the opposite results from what occurred last year! We shall see!

Now for your new weekly ski and snowboarding forecast. Well, the Friday snowstorm was just what the doctor ordered for ski resorts to kick off the season! Cold temperatures last week also allowed many resorts to commence snow making for the new season. Overall, I would give this week a 7 out of 10 for early season conditions. There will also be a chance for some natural snow with fast moving clipper systems, but nothing significant for this week. The pattern could produce a significant snowfall about one week from today. Before that, it will be chilly the next couple days, only to briefly warm up into the 40’s on Thursday, then to plummet back into the 20’s and 30’s this weekend. Enjoy!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Changeable temperatures. Be prepared for winter cold next weekend!

For the rest of today, expect considerable clouds and splashes of sun. It will be on the cold side, with temperatures falling into the 30’s.

Watch for clearing and cold weather tonight, with lows in the teens and 20’s.

For the last day of November, watch for sunny but it will be on the cold side, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30’s. Fair and cold weather will be the theme Tuesday night, with lows in the teens and 20’s.

Wednesday is the first day of December! Happy first day of meteorological winter! Expect the opposite of what you would think! It may start on the cold side, but southwest winds will warm us up into the mid 40’s by afternoon. Dry and rather mild weather is expected overnight Wednesday, with lows mainly in the 30’s.

A cold front will be approaching the region on Thursday, Before then, a southwest wind will transport even milder air, with high temperatures in the low to mid 50’s across eastern Massachusetts..warmest across southeast region. It will be cooler to the north and west, especially in the mountains.

There will be showers crossing the region from west to east during the afternoon and evening. After these showers move through, winds will pick up, and will begin to transport colder air back into the region.

Friday will feature brisk winds and colder temperatures, along with some passing stratocumulus clouds racing by. The air temperatures may reach 40, but winds will make it feel much colder.

Right now, expect fair but colder weather for this upcoming weekend. Temperatures will remain in the 20’s up north, and 30’s in southern New England. There is the potential for storm about one week from today. There are many potential outcomes with this system, ranging from snow changing to rain, out to sea, or even turning into a nor’easter with heavy wet snow and strong winds. It all hinges on how branches of the jet stream interact or phase with each other, or don’t. I will be monitoring this system, and will update everyone if I feel conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be watching the changes in our patterns across the country, and let you know how these changes will be affecting our weather here in New England. I will also have a new ski  and snowboard forecast, as well as a new weekly weather forecast. In the meantime, if you don’t like the short days, daylight begins increasing just three weeks from now!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter Forecast: Polar Plunge!! 11/22/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a fairly typical weekend weather wise around here. While Saturday featured somewhat below average temperatures, Sunday turned milder, with somewhat above average temperatures. There was a smattering of rain overnight Friday, but the weekend was overall on the dry side. Saturday was crisp, very much what you would expect in New England here in November. Temperatures started off on the cold side, with many communities falling into the 20’s. Highs reached only into the mid 40’s, which made it feel somewhat like early winter. Sunday started off cloudy, but some sun broke through during the afternoon, allowing for temperatures to warm up into the mid 50’s. After Saturday’s chill, this felt quite pleasant! It was a great day to clean up the yards, take a walk in the woods, or even put up the Christmas lights!

This is going to be the theme for the balance of the month. Roller coaster temperatures, with very little if any storms to contend with. I know, this is in stark contrast to what I was anticipating in last weeks post! A week ago at this time, computer models were indicating a wild scenario setting up for the east coast and New England this week. Basically, they were showing a similar type storm as the big nor’easter we saw in late October, however with cold air involved, a more wintry scenario would have unfolded. If this storm had verified, it would of led to massive travel disruptions and many cancellations.

Thank goodness this storm did not come to fruition! As it turned out, many piece of the puzzle just didn’t come together right. The showers we experienced this morning was all that there was as the storm moved through our region. As this storm pulls off our coast, it will intensify into the storm once feared, and is actually going to yank a chunk of winter like cold down from southern Canada into New England over the next couple days.

Thereafter, computer models are showing a brief relaxation to the pattern come Thanksgiving afternoon, with temperatures moderating back up into the mid 50’s, after a very chilly start. It’s going to feel downright balmy after the cold weather of the next two days. This will be perfect weather for folks to get out and take an after dinner walk to burn off some calories after feasting! As I mentioned above, this is a roller coaster temperature pattern we’re in! A cold front will be crossing the region on Friday, and will accompanied by some showers, though a washout is not anticipated at this time. Yet another blast of cold air will arrive this weekend, and probably remain with us through the end of the month.

All these wild swings here in November have important implications in mapping out my winter forecast. While not perfect, I believe computer models, meteorologists and amateurs have made amazing strides in seasonal forecasts. Still, at best, it’s an educated guess. There are still many variables that can alter patterns over the course of a season. As we know, patterns change within a few days sometimes, let alone over several months!

For this reason, I have taken this forecast as a two step approach. The first step is today, which I like to call the preliminary thoughts. I have been doing this for a couple years now, and it seems to work out quite well. I just believe the patterns can and will change from now until the winter solstice on December on December 21st this year. Remember, meteorological winter begins on December 1st, but astronomical winter begins on the 21st, which runs to March 20th, first day of spring. I will review all the data over the next several weeks, and have my final forecast for the winter posted around the winter solstice. There may be changes, there may not. Sometimes, Mother Nature does not show here full hand until the actual winter solstice arrives.

So far, computer models are not offering much help in determining what type of winter we can expect this year. Every time you turn around the models are flip flopping on different scenarios. Granted, there are many conflicting signals this year, which makes it hard to make a reliable forecast. This is fairly typical in La Nina years. I’m sure most everyone has heard of El Nino (warmer than normal water in the southern Pacific Ocean. La Nina is the opposite, or colder than normal water in the same region. This year, we are squarely in a La Nina, no borderline readings, it’s a La Nina.

Looking at past records, La Nina’s are much more erratic to predict than El Nino. In general, La Nina’s are colder across Alaska, Pacific Northwest and western Canada. They also tend to be warmer across the south, southeast and mid Atlantic region. For us here in New England, La Nina winters can range from extremely warm & dry, like 2011-12, to exceptionally cold & snowy like 1995-96. There have been many in between too, such as 2017-18 and 2007-08. In other words, anything can happen in La Nina winters here in New England.

Climate expert Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics says there two sides to La Nina, “mild La Nina” and “wintry La Nina.” The big challenge is trying to figure out which one it’s going to be. Like I mentioned above, sometimes it’s a combination of the two, much like last year. They call this a “double dip” La Nina, or “second year” La Nina. If you recall, last winter featured a mid December snowstorm, which buried much of New England with 1 to 3 ft of snow.

This was followed by the hideous blast of warm weather and heavy rain on Christmas Day, which was the Grinch who stole our White Christmas away! Then, winter disappeared until February, when temperatures averaged slightly below normal, and snowfall was above average. Come March, winter was completely over, with zero accumulation in Boston. Overall, snowfall averaged a bit below average in Boston, but near average in the suburbs, and temperatures were slightly above average for the three month period.

Besides the La Nina, there are many other important teleconnections I study in conjunction with La Nina to help me determine which way to lean in my forecast. As I mentioned above, these teleconnections often change between now and the winter solstice. When I see these changes, it often gives me more confidence in my winter solstice update to make a call on the rest of the winter.

No doubt, the Pacific Ocean is the main driver determining our winter weather here in New England. The Atlantic definitely plays a role, but mainly in helping storms intensify and precipitation type here in New England. In the Pacific, we have the La Nina, but we also have something called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. This has been a big signal which influenced our winters here in New England past several years. When the ocean is very warm in the north Pacific, specifically in the Gulf of Alaska, it’s called a positive PDO. When the ocean is colder than normal, it’s called a negative PDO. When it’s warm, this promotes a ridge of high pressure across Alaska, blocking cold air from settling into the state.

This in turn pushes the arctic air towards eastern Canada, and develops a deep trough of low pressure (cold & stormy) across the eastern United States. When this happens, cold air can easily build north of New England, then can dislodge more easily into our region as nor’easters track off our coast. When in the negative phasel, Alaska tends to remain bitterly cold. This cold air often settles south into the Pacific northwest part of the U.S. This year, the ocean in this part of the Pacific is much colder, meaning it’s a negative PDO, which lines up nicely with the ongoing La Nina.

This would all argue for a blow torch winter here in New England. However, there are other factors occurring that may neutralize these warm signals. I am closely monitoring the QBO, Quasi Biennial Oscillation, and the MJO, Madden-Julian Oscillation and how these two can influence the polar vortex, and can be a game changer for our upcoming winter. The QBO is high stratospheric winds that circulate the earth above the equator. Every 14 months or so, the winds change direction. When blowing westerly, this tends to bring milder winters to New England, such as last year. This year, the winds have shifted easterly. Research has shown easterly QBO’s can have an impact on weakening the polar vortex, and influence high altitude blocking aka the Greenland Block. The MJO is a similar phenomenon, and is a pulsing cycle of thunderstorms which travel along the tropical regions of the Pacific and Indian Ocean over a 30 to 60 day period.* A strong MJO cycle can mean a stronger signal of cold and storminess in New England. It’s complicated, but somehow it is all connected. Please continue reading, and I will do my best to make this relevant to my forecast!

Many meteorologists and NOAA are calling for another warm winter. Based upon what I see, I can’t argue with them! It looks warm on paper! I enjoy reading all of the forecasts and technical discussions, and trying to learn as much as I can! These scientists are amazing at what they do. I respect the field, and don’t want to make it into some kind of a game. I realize I’m going against the popular belief here, but I enjoy doing the research, and taking a chance to see if it’s right! After all, I have my “second chance” safety net at the solstice to make some changes if I do desire. Also, this is meant to be fun for me, so I will go with what my gut instincts are telling me!

I believe the easterly QBO is helping to manufacture the early season blocking we have seen here in November. It could a sign that bigger things are on the way later in the winter. With the help of some high latitude blocking, this has muted the La Nina forcing, keeping the warmest weather away from New England. No, it hasn’t been a cold November, but it will undoubtedly end up colder than last November. With several more cold shots to swing through, I believe this November will end up being close to neutral for temperature departures. Anything within +1 or -1 is considered average. This is very important, as I use temperature profile for November to help me determine how severe the winter is going to be. Should it end up slightly below average, this increases the chances of my forecast verifying.

I also watch for Boston’s first freeze. So far, Logan Airport has not dropped to 32 degrees. This is about two weeks later than average. If we do not drop to 32 degrees tonight, then it should make it tomorrow night. The good news is we have not seen any accumulating snow yet. It’s never a good sign to have an accumulating snow before you have a first freeze…at least here in Boston. If we receive the freeze, we’ll be ready for the first accumulating snow.

It’s hard to tell for sure if the easterly QBO is going to be able to overpower the La Nina. What I think is going to happen, high latitude blocking is going to help to suppress the jet stream, bringing a much colder winter to our area than many think. This will allow the cold air over the the Pacific northwest to slide east towards New England. December may still have some warm periods, but the cold should strengthen as we head towards Christmas, and beyond. Right now, I’m expecting one of the coldest January’s we have seen in 6 years around here. There may be some moderation in February, only to turn cold again in March. I’m expecting this winter to average 1 to 3 degrees below average. This doesn’t mean we won’t have mild spells, but the overall average for the three months is going to be colder than normal for a change. If true, this would be the first colder than normal winter in the Boston area since 2014-15.

Snowfall. This is always a wildcard trying to figure out, but brings the most interest! Boston has seen below average snowfall the past three winters. New climatology averages now show Boston receives nearly 50″ of snow per season. With warmer than normal ocean temperatures to our east, I’m expecting a slow start to snowfall accumulations in Boston this year. However, we can still anticipate at least average snow to fall in December, which is 8″. After the new year, winter should kick into high gear, with a very wintry January setting up. The warm ocean is your foe earlier in the year, but can be our ally later, as it can be fuel for intensifying coastal storms and nor’easters. Regardless, confidence is quite high for a period of severe winter weather this year. When exactly this happens is still not known, but odds favor sometime after the new year

With all that being said, I’m going  for between 50 and 60″ of snow in Boston, with between 40 and 50″ south of Boston, I’m expecting between 60 and 70″ between Rt 128 and I495. Because some of these early season storms may fall as snow, I’m expecting even greater amounts of snow north and west of I495 into southern New Hampshire, let’s go with 70 to 80″ of snow this winter. Lesser amounts will fall in the seacoast region of New Hampshire, but still you can expect between 60 and 70″.

For my friends down the Cape, I’m afraid you will have to wait until later in the year when the ocean finally cools off to be able to support snow. Nevertheless, you can expect between 20 and 30″. There’s always the chance of a big storm later in January or February to surpass this range, we shall see. For folks up in Maine, I’m expecting more snow than last winter. Ocean will play a role early, and keep accumulations down, but will crank later in winter, with between 60 and 70″ along the coast, but much more inland.

After a bit of a slow start, I believe ski country is going to receive above average snowfall this winter. This means generally between 150 to 200″ of snow at many resorts, but up to 300″ at some of the high terrain mountains such as Killington, Stowe, Jay Peak, Wildcat and Sunday River to name a few.

As always, there will be some unusual patterns, and with that comes surprises. It’s the nature of the beast! How we get to these numbers is always an adventure! It’s hardly ever straight forward the you way you think it’s going to happen. I always give my best effort…sometimes it works out, other times not so much. I must say, I definitely feel I’m going out on a limb here compared to some other forecasts. I will be updating this forecast for sure around the winter solstice!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week an 8 out of 10. Not bad for Thanksgiving travel week!

Expect clearing and colder weather tonight. Low temperatures should drop into the 20’s region wide, except 32 right along the water.

Tuesday will feature sunny skies, but it will be windy and cold! High temperatures will struggle to 30 in Boston, but remain in the 30’s across the interior. Wind chill values will remain in the 20’s much of the day, so time to bundle up!

Tuesday night will be fair and cold. With lighter winds temperatures may fall into the teens and 20’s across the region.

Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, should be pleasant for any travel plans. Expect mainly sunny skies and lighter winds. Temperatures will still struggle to reach the low 40’s, but with lighter winds, it will feel a lot nicer out! Temperatures will drop quickly Wednesday evening into 20’s and 30’s, but remain dry across the region.

For Thanksgiving Day, expect a chilly start, but with sunny skies. As the day progresses, winds will turn southwesterly, and transport much milder temperatures during the afternoon. Expect highs to rebound into the low to mid 50’s. Some locations may make it to the upper 50’s across southeastern Massachusetts. There may be some afternoon high clouds which may reveal a colorful sunset.

Increasing clouds but dry weather will prevail Thanksgiving night. It won’t be nearly as cold, with lows in the 30’s and low 40’s.

A fairly strong cold front will traverse New England on Friday. Watch for showers to move across the region from west to east. These showers may change to snow showers across the higher terrain of northern and western New England, perhaps even the Worcester Hills as the cold air rushes back into the region.

Friday night will turn windy and cold all over again! Watch for temperatures to drop into the 20’s.

Expect a mostly dry weekend. However, it will be on the wintry side, with high temperatures mainly in the 30’s and lower 40’s, with nighttime lows in the teens and 20s.

Cold & dry weather can be expected through the end of November, before we may see a warm up sometime during the first 10 days of December.

Well, that’s about it for now! I hope you enjoyed reading my winter forecast! A little more technical this year, but it needed to be mentioned! In next week’s blog, I will have some after thoughts on my forecast. One nice thing about my forecast is that I can continue to give everyone updates on any changes or new information that I see. It’s never just one and done. I will also have our first ski and snow boarding forecast of the season. In the meantime, if you don’t like the forecast, you can take it up with the polar bear!

~Wishing everyone a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

*Some information derived from meteorological articles on line

Signs of Winter…11/15/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! I have been studying the weather here in New England for the better part of my life, and I can honestly can say I don’t believe I have ever seen a more strange weekend of weather in my entire life. Weather? What weather you ask? It was sunny and seasonably cool the entire weekend. Oh, except for the severe thunderstorm that crossed the Boston area Saturday evening, the unprecedented tornado outbreak across Long Island, N.Y. Connecticut, and Rhode Island, and the mini snowstorm which occurred across parts of Vermont, and northern New Hampshire, all within a few hour period Saturday evening!!

Otherwise, it was a beautiful late fall weekend across much of the area, with plenty of sun on Saturday, and seasonably cool temperatures. Sunday was a brisk day, with slightly cooler temperatures, and increasing clouds…but rain held off until late in the evening.

If you blinked, you would of never known what happened Saturday evening. Many here in Boston just heard a few claps of thunder and a brief downpour and it was over. Unfortunately, folks in Connecticut and Rhode Island experienced what experts are calling a “unprecedented tornado outbreak” for this time of year. In fact, I would call it unprecedented for any time of the year, let alone for November! Statistics show that this was the first tornadoes ever recorded in Rhode Island & Connecticut during the month of November since records began in 1950. That’s not too long of a period to make any judgement calls on the state of the climate, but this was a highly unusual event, for sure.

According to reports, there were eight tornadoes. All were between F0 and F1 based on the Fujita scale. Not huge tornadoes, but capable of causing significant damage, nonetheless. F0 and F1 tornadoes range from 70 mph to 110 mph. Four were in Connecticut, two in Rhode Island, and two in Long Island, N.Y. They didn’t last long, but they did touchdown and were strong enough to knock trees down, do some property damage, and frighten people enough to take shelter.

Many were asking how this could happen in November, after such a beautiful, tranquil day? Well, meteorologists and amateur weather people were tracking this storm on computer models for a few days, so the information was out there. You can blame it on a very intense thermal gradient lying across New England. It was still fairly warm across the southeastern part of the state, while winter like cold was moving in across western New England. This set up a classic clash of two seasons. A fairly strong short wave (upper level energy in the atmosphere), tracked along this thermal boundary. This energy rapidly intensified as it tracked across Connecticut, western Massachusetts, then through southern New Hampshire. On the eastern side of the storm is the warm sector, where warm moist air, most likely aided by the unusually high ocean temperatures of our coast, was being lifted by a rush of colder, drier air rushing in from the west. This set up a very intense squall line for this time of the year, that became strong enough to produce tornadoes.

Storms tend to move very quickly in La Nina winters. This storm arrived seemingly out of the blue, and the moon was back out shining by 8 PM.

As this storm tracked north, a cold pocket of air aloft allowed the rain to rapidly change to heavy wet snow, due to dynamic cooling. This is when a storm rapidly intensifies, and becomes strong enough to manufacture its own cold air aloft, then bring it down to the surface. If the precipitation is falling hard enough, it will bring the cold air down to the surface, changing the heavy rain to heavy snow! This suddenly happened across many higher elevations above 1500 ft in Vermont and New Hampshire Saturday evening. Mitch from southern VT tweeted out several wintry pictures showing a winter wonderland landscape with between 3 and 5″ of snow falling in a very short window. Thunder snow was also observed! Another friend posted pictures with a similar wintry scene up in New Hampshire on Sunday!

Another weak system tracked across the same areas Sunday night, bringing another coating of snow! You get the picture, winter is beginning to make its annual press from the high terrain region towards the coastal plain, where many of us live. Before that happens, we have some big temperature swings to go through this week!

Hard to believe, it’s almost time for the winter forecast! One week from today, I will be posting my thoughts on what I am expecting for the upcoming winter for the Boston area, and for many other parts of New England for that matter. This is the preliminary outlook. A couple years ago, I allowed myself to make any necessary changes to the outlook around when the winter solstice arrives. There’s always some new information that arrives during late fall, that warrants some tweaks to the forecast. This allows me some leeway just in case I have to make some changes for the long run. If I make any changes, that will be the final forecast for the period from December 22nd through March 20th.

At this juncture, I’m seeing many conflicting signals for our winter. I see signs for a mild winter, perhaps similar to last year. But I also see signs for something a bit more harsh, maybe something similar to 2017-18. That season, Boston finished with 59″ of snow. I’m going to be reviewing all of my information over the course of the next week to try to help me to determine which way I should lean.

Just looking at the patterns for this fall, I would say not much of a winter is coming this year. It’s just recently that peak fall foliage finally made it through the city…a good two to three weeks behind normal. While many of the surrounding areas have received a killing freeze and frosts, areas right along the ocean and Logan airport itself still has not registered a 32 degree reading. This is critical information for me to determine how much snow may or may not fall in Boston this winter. In it’s own, the freeze is now two weeks behind schedule at Logan. There’s a chance Logan falls to 32 degrees tomorrow night. If not, there’s another opportunity this weekend.

Despite all this, I see increasing signs of a change to a colder weather pattern arriving for the last 10 days of November. Despite all the warm weather, things can change rapidly this time of year. Yes, computer models have been pushing the cold back, which is never a good sign if you’re a fan of winter. However, more and more computer models are now indicating that a Greenland block is going to develop beginning this weekend. If this kind of pattern verifies, the potential for colder weather, and a Thanksgiving week snow (storm) is a real possibility.

A Greenland block is when high pressure (fair & warm) builds over Greenland. When this occurs in the colder months of November through March, it dislodges the cold air up in Canada, and surges it south through Quebec and into New England. This means high pressure to our north (mild & dry), and low pressure (cold & wet) to the south. How these two interact along the east coast is till too early to determine from now. Other factors such as the unusually warm ocean temperatures may mean more wet than white within 50 miles of the coast. We had a similar storm before Thanksgiving back in 2014 which brought up to a foot of snow across the interior, and just a crusty coating along the coast. If you recall, that winter came back with a vengeance later in January and February of 2015 with the record snow blitz, which buried the city of Boston!

In any event, even if the storm does not happen, a trend to colder weather the last 10 days of November is a key sign I look for in helping me determine my winter forecast. I will be watching the final departures for November, to see how far above normal, below, or if the month finishes neutral temperatures. So far, we are running about 1.5 degrees above average. Most of this week is going to run a little below average, with big exception of Thursday, when the temperatures will spike into the 60’s for one day! Next week also looks chilly, but a fickle jet stream could spike temperatures slightly above average for one or two days. Storm or no storm, computer models are showing at least one or two days where temperatures could plummet into the 20’s. I will be monitoring the forecast very carefully, and will be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant.

Speaking of winter and snow, it’s time to start talking about our ski season! While not officially open, I saw many photos of folks hiking up the mountain and doing some early season skiing with the freshly fallen snow from this weekend. Conditions should be plenty cold enough next week for many ski resorts to open up in time for the annual Thanksgiving weekend season opener! If we’re lucky, there may even be a Thanksgiving snowstorm to kick off the season in style! Regardless, I’m expecting a solid to very good ski season this year. A storm track should be active, and it should be cold enough for plenty of snowstorms in northern New England this winter. I will elaborate more about this next week in my winter forecast!

Well, it’s been over for nearly a month now up in northern New England, but I feel obligated to give one more fall foliage report for us along the coast this year. Overall, it was a poor season along coastal Massachusetts this year. It was too warm, and we had too much rain this summer. I’m fairly confident it was due to the very warm temperatures rather than the rain. The trees seemed healthy this fall, they just refused to change colors along the coast without that frost in October this year. With all that being said, we recently enjoyed one last second burst of color, after last weeks frosts here in Boston. It was brief, but the reds and yellows suddenly popped seemingly overnight. As mentioned, it wasn’t our best here in Boston, but there are always some trees that perform well regardless of the environment. I understand this was not the case in other parts of New England, where many enjoyed beautiful fall colors this season. Oddly enough, I have seen pictures of stunning colors in latitudes much farther south than us! Oh well, we will hope for better next year!

Time for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect fair & cool weather for the rest of today. There will be some cumulus clouds, but this will just add beauty to the mid November sky. Temperatures should remain in the 40’s.

Tonight will feature partly cloudy skies. It will be chilly, with low temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s, coldest in the rural areas. There will be a gusty wind which will make it feel a bit colder. It should remain above 32 degrees in Boston, but not by much.

Tuesday should feature dry conditions, however it may be a few degrees colder than today. Highs will mainly be in the mid 40’s across the region.

With clearing skies and light winds, temperatures will quickly drop…with many interior communities falling into the low 20’s. Tomorrow night, Logan airport has a very good chance, I would call it 75% chance at falling to 32 degrees for the first time this season.

Temperatures should rebound back up into the 40’s and lower 50’s on Wednesday. There may be more clouds around as a warm front approaches, but I’m not expecting any precipitation at this time. There will be periods of sunshine as well. Fair and milder weather should continue Wednesday night, with lows mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s.

For fans of mild to warm weather, I have a special treat for you! As a cold front approaches from the west, expect winds to turn more south southwesterly on Thursday. If we get enough sunshine, it’s not out of the questions temperatures could spike to 70 degrees in some communities! Otherwise, mid to upper 60’s look to be a lock! Perhaps the last really warm day of the season??

A strong cold front will be passing through New England Thursday night. This front will be accompanied by a period of rain, which may flip to snow showers on the back side across parts of western New England early Friday morning. After some morning showers, expect the balance of Friday to feature periods of sun, and colder temperatures, back down into the 40’s. Friday night should be fair and cold, with lows in the 20’s and low 30’s.

At this point the weekend is looking mainly fair and dry with seasonable to perhaps slightly below seasonal temperatures, which means highs mainly in the 40’s, and lows in the 20’s and low 30’s.

As I mentioned, I will be monitoring the potential for some stormy & colder weather next week for the Thanksgiving holiday. Details to follow.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will focus my attention on posting my preliminary winter forecast for the Boston area & New England region. I will also have my first official ski and snowboarding forecast. Wow! Time really does fly! In the meantime, enjoy the warm temperatures on Thursday…signs of winter will soon be a reality!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Touch of Indian Summer! 11/8/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a classic fall weekend around much of the region, with mainly sunny skies, light winds and seasonable temperatures. Saturday began on the cold side, but afternoon sun warmed us up into the lower 50’s. Sunday also featured sunshine, and was just a touch warmer in the afternoon. Overall, temperatures were right where they normally would be for early November. While it’s been pleasant by afternoon, the mornings have been quite chilly! In fact, I’m sure you noticed the widespread frost, even to the coast!

I was speaking with my sister Pam last evening, and she mentioned that it was as if someone clicked the light switch to “off” with the sudden chilly weather. It did appear that way, as we enjoyed mid to upper 60’s on Halloween, only to be scraping frost off the windshield of our cars a couple days later. The truth is, this is weather that we should of been already experiencing during the second half of October. Many towns were running a good two weeks behind schedule with the end of the growing season. Mother Nature made up for some lost time, sending most areas in New England down into the 20’s and low 30’s for approximately five days in a row. This has essentially ended the growing season across the region.

The one holdout, is right along the edge of the ocean. Boston’s Logan Airport failed to fall to 32 degrees during the cold stretch. Average date for this observation site is November 4th. As far as I could tell the lowest reading was 34 degrees. I registered 28 degrees where I live in West Roxbury, which is approximately 8 miles southwest of Logan Airport, with weather more indicative to surrounding towns such as Dedham, south Newton, Chestnut Hill and Brookline. Even towns on the Cape dropped into the 20’s. I believe even Nantucket Island dropped to 32 degrees!

Why is this? Why does it take so long for Logan Airport to fall to freezing in the fall? Since we will not be experiencing any cold weather this week, it may be close to Thanksgiving week until Logan officially registers a 32 degree reading. This actually makes sense this year, since the rest of the region was running two weeks behind schedule for first frosts and freezes.

The answer is its proximity to the ocean. It’s hard enough dropping to 32 degrees in a normal fall. Add one of the warmest falls on record, and ocean temperatures that are running well above normal, and it’s going to take a real push of almost arctic air for them to finally fall to freezing. Looking at some of the computer models this morning, I believe we have a good shot of this happening as we get closer to Thanksgiving week.

There are three things I closely monitor during the month of November to help with my winter forecast. First is first freeze dates. Studies have shown the later the first freeze occurs (dropping to 32 degrees or lower for three straight hours) the following winter can sometimes be less harsh. Also if an accumulating snow falls before the first freeze. If you like cold & snowy winters, that’s a big no no in my book!

Two, temperature profile in November. More specifically I closely monitor the departures at the end of the month. A warmer than normal November by 3 degrees or more often times leads to below normal snowfall in Boston. I believe there have been only three years in the last 60 that went against this theory. They were 1963-64, 1974-75, and as recent as 2016-17 winter. Each of these Novembers were warmer than normal by at least 3 degrees, but were followed by above average snowfall the following winter.

The third signal I watch for is November snowfall. There is some good evidence that shows when Boston receives two inches or more of snow during the month of November, the following winter more times than not features above average snowfall!

There are many other areas that I study to help derive my winter forecast, but these are the three that I’ll be closely watching over the course of the next several weeks.

How’s it looking so far? I’m very encouraged with the frosty cold mornings we experienced the past several mornings. Folklore says, the heavier the frost is in November, the thicker the snow pack will be in winter! I would like to see Logan Airport officially drop to 32 degrees to feel more confident of a snowy winter this year. It will in due time, but the later it takes, the higher the chance of a accumulation of snow before the freeze. We are entering a mild spell this week, but this should be transient, meaning it’s not going to come in persist like it did last year. In fact, there are strong indications of a stormier, colder weather pattern taking hold for the second half of November this year.

Does this mean snow? Yes! With cold air charging into New England, places across the interior may indeed experience their first snowfall sometime next week, As the cold presses further east, even places close to the coast may experience November snowfall the week of Thanksgiving. I spoke about this possibility in my November outlook at the start of this month. Admittedly, With ocean temperatures being so far above normal, it may be a struggle to see much frozen precipitation along the coast. But if the set up is just right with northerly winds, it certainly can snow along the coast as well. The chances are higher across the interior and higher terrain, but the potential is there for just about everyone.

Before that, we indeed have a taste of Indian Summer this week! I apologize in advances if it’s not politically correct to call it Indian Summer or not, but I see no offense to indigenous people with this weather phenomenon. Native Americans used this period of tranquil, warm days to harvest late crops. By definition, Indian Summer is a 3 to 5 day period of sunny, warm days with light winds after the first freeze. Last year, we experienced a spectacular stretch of Indian Summer weather during November, when we enjoyed temperatures in the 70’s for nearly two weeks in a row! This was accompanied by sunny days with blue skies, and light winds.

This stretch of Indian Summer is only going to be a fraction of last years. Yes, I’m expecting a few days to reach the 60’s this week! If you have a chance, take advantage of this beautiful weather with  walk by the beach, local park, or in your neighborhood!

With the abnormally warm autumn so far, our foliage season is like the energizer bunny, it keeps going and going! I have seen many pictures of a late season burst of color up and down the coast of New England, from Maine to Cape Cod! Hard to believe we still have approximately 75% of the leaves still on the trees here in Boston. With the frosts finally arriving last week, there may be one more burst of color around here a week from now. Hearty golden oaks will finally surrender to the calls of winter! Then we’ll most likely see a northwest gust of wind to blow all the leaves off the trees before next week is done.

Overall, I would call it an off year for areas along the coast. Though there has been pockets of beauty, there most always is. Places like the Arnold Arboretum, Turtle Pond Parkway and VFW Parkway to name a few never seem to disappoint. It appears the excessive summer rainfall and very warm temperatures this past October delayed foliage from changing colors on time.

If your planning on doing some late season camping or hiking this week, earlier is looking better than later. This could be the last week to enjoy temperatures like this until April. Temperatures will be on the mild side compared to last week, with many areas warming up into the 60’s during the day, and 40’s at night. A storm system will be approaching New England late in the week, with wind and rain possible Friday night into Saturday. Fair weather should return Sunday with cooler temperatures.

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect sunny and mild weather for the balance of today. Many towns will warm into the upper 50’s with some locations nicking 60. This is about 10 degrees above average for the date. With the earlier sunsets, an early walk in the park will feature very pleasant weather conditions.

Watch for fair weather to continue tonight, with lows mainly in 30’s and low 40’s across the region. Warmest across urban areas.

Tuesday is going to be a stellar day! Just a touch of Indian Summer will be in the air. Expect similar weather to today, but with even warmer temperatures! Look for sunny weather, blue skies and light winds, with high temperatures in the mid 60’s. There may be some clouds approaching late in the day, but I’m not expecting any precipitation. Tomorrow night looks dry, with mild temperatures.

A weak cold front will be crossing New England during the day on Wednesday. This will introduce more in the way of cloudiness, though there’s an outside chance there will periods of sunshine. It will continue to be mild, with highs mainly in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.

Cooler air will begin to filter into New England Wednesday night, with lows dropping into the 30’s across the region..

Expect a cooler day for Veterans Day, with highs remaining in the 50’s. I’m not expecting any rain on Thursday, so any parades honoring our Veterans should remain dry.

A strong cold front will be approaching New England on Friday. As the front approaches, winds will freshen from the southwest, and transport milder weather back into the region, with many communities reaching the low 60’s once again. Expect rain to spread across the region late in the day and continue through the night. Some of the rain could be on the heavy side, but no flooding is anticipated. Another low pressure could form along the front south of New England which may keep eastern areas wet throughout much of Saturday. It will be begin to cool cooler, with temperatures dropping through the 50’s and 40’s by evening.

As the front sweeps off the coast, watch for clearing skies and brisk weather for Sunday, with highs near 50. It may turn even colder at the beginning of next week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing in on my winter forecast, which will be posted just two weeks from today! I will also have on final foliage report, and will talk a bit about the upcoming ski season! In the meantime, enjoy the touch of Indian Summer…the seasons are about to change!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

November to Remember? 11/1/21

Hello! Welcome to November…a true transition month to winter! Overall, we observed a 50/50 weekend around here, weather wise. Saturday was not as bad as it was supposed to be, but it was still cloudy and damp all day, with frequent showers. A more robust period of rain moved through Saturday evening, but the worst of the rain was observed to our north. According to reports, much of New Hampshire & Maine received between 4 and 6″ of torrential rains! Sunday was a glorious day for Halloween, with sun mixed with billowy cumulus clouds. It was brisk and warm, with temperatures making it up into the upper 60’s across the Boston area. This is in stark contrast to the record breaking snowstorm and very cold temperatures in the Boston area just one year ago! Halloween time always has interesting weather. This year was decidedly on the warm side!

As mentioned above, late October around Halloween always seems to feature some kind of interesting weather. This year was no different, as the major October Nor’easter blew through our area last Tuesday and Wednesday. As I mentioned in my forecast, the worst of the storm would be felt along the immediate coastline. The storm featured hurricane force wind gusts, heavy rain, and some coastal flooding. While the North Shore of Boston received some significant damage, it was the South Shore that bore the brunt of the storm. Winds gusted 70 to 90 mph with significant tree damage and widespread power outages. In fact, some people are still without power, one week after the storm! Some communities hit hardest from the storm were Hull, Cohasset, Scituate, Hanover, Marshfield, Duxbury and Plymouth to name a few! Also let’s not forget all of Cape Cod, which also received the highest rainfall reports, and structural damage due to very strong winds.

A lifelong friend of mine Tom Donahue, who resides in Scituate, said he never has heard the wind roar as loud as it did from any storm. Tom has lived in Scituate for close to 25 years now, and has seen his share of nor’easters! The maximum wind gust in Scituate was 86 mph! While not classified as a tropical storm, this nor’easter was equivalent to a category one hurricane across the South Shore. The overall highest wind was 94 mph observed on Martha’s Vineyard!

Because this was a cold core storm, and derived most of its energy from a thermal clash of warm and cold air masses, it did not get a name. However, the extremely warm ocean temperatures off our coast no doubt had an influence in the intensity of the storm.

Here in Boston, the wind was not quite as ferocious. Winds were reported between 50 and 60 mph across the city, which were still strong enough to result in some trees coming down and scattered power outages, but nothing like what they experienced across the South Shore. This is not to downplay cities & towns that were also hit hard along the North Shore.  Cities such as Gloucester / Rockport region and Swampscott / Beverly areas were also slammed with 70 to 80 mph wind gusts and significant property damage. Overall, it was a very significant and damaging storm here in eastern Massachusetts. The only saving grace was that the storm hit on a day with astronomical low tides. Had the storm hit while tides were higher, we would of been looking at major coastal flooding damage on top of all the winds damage that would of rivaled “The Perfect Storm” back in October of 1991.

The last week of October was not indicative on how the rest of the month went. Much like last year, Boston enjoyed beautiful fall weather for the first three weeks of the month. In fact, this October ended up being the 4th warmest on record! We also recorded above average precipitation for the 4th straight month here in Boston. Terry Eliasen from the WBZ weather team also tweeted out that through October 31st, Boston is experiencing its 6th wettest year on record, and warmest falls on record up to this point. Cooler weather the last week of the month prevented us from a top three warm October. The warm & wet records just keep falling like domino’s.

There were no frosts reported until the very last few days. I actually observed some light frost on some rooftops of cars & homes early Friday morning, when temperatures dipped down into the mid 30’s. Many suburban areas also reported their first frost of the season. This is still a good 2 weeks later than average. With colder temperatures expected this week, I am anticipating the first widespread freeze across much of New England north & west of I95. While coastal areas will experience frosty conditions, I am still not expecting temperatures to fall to 32 degrees or lower along the coast. On average, Logan Airport experiences its first freeze around November 4th. If we don’t reach it early Thursday morning, it may not be until close to Thanksgiving when it officially happens. We shall see.

What should we expect for the month of November? On average, Boston begins the month with high temperatures in the mid 50’s but end up in the mid 40’s by months end. Low temperatures start out in the mid 40’s, but cool to near freezing by months end. November is typically one of the cloudiest months of the year. However, the past couple November’s have seen an unusual amount of sunshine, especially last year, when we experienced two straight weeks of Indian summer weather with golden sunshine and temperatures in the 70’s each day!

November is a true transition month to winter, Think of it similar to May being a transition month to summer. Some years, winter can arrive early during the second half of November, similar to May seeing hot weather arriving by Memorial Day. The same can be said with cold weather arriving by Thanksgiving. Other years, November can be stormy, with an average of over 4″ of precipitation in Boston. Wintry weather sometimes arrives early. Logan Airport averages about an inch and a half of snow in November, with much more falling north and west of the coastal plain. In higher elevations November is considered a wintry month. Some years, an early season storm will dump a half a foot of snow or more in the city, but is rare. Wintry weather typically waits until after Thanksgiving to arrive.

What am I expecting for this November? Well, computer models are showing some interesting weather coming up this month. I believe it will be a cooler month than October, on average. I don’t see how that could be replicated but I guess anything is possible in this warmer climate we live in. With that being said, I do see some rather large fluctuations in temperatures ranging from wintry cold, to almost Indian Summer like weather. All this should translate into a month which averages very close to average, if not slightly above here in Boston. How we get there will be by large fluctuations in temperatures

While the first week looks to be on the dry side, I think we’re going to see our share of storms this November, as an active jet stream oscillates north and south across our region. Most will be rain along the coast, but I can’t rule out an early season snow for Boston and other coastal cities points north this November. As mentioned above, Boston only averages 1.5″ in November, so I’m going with above average snow in the city, with a legit first snowfall sometime around Thanksgiving time. Looking over some long range computer data for November, there’s even a chance at a memorable snow event this November. If early season blocking and cold converge near the coast, watch out! This could be one of those unusual years with a November snowstorm! Ski resorts should be able to get off to a faster start than last year, with colder temperatures and a couple early season snowfalls.

Typically, fall foliage forecast would end on Halloween. However, with the exceptionally warm fall, I will be extending this report into the first two weeks of November. Well, the trees barely made it trough the October nor’easter. Wind whipped rains muted whatever colors that were trying to come on here in Boston. However, colder nighttime temperatures at the end of last week has given a glimmer of hope. I found some really nice color driving along the Turtle Pond Parkway heading from West Roxbury to Hyde Park last week. As it has been across much of New England, peak fall colors is late arriving to Boston by two weeks. Temperatures will be falling close to freezing across the Parkway area this week. This means it’s possible we see one final burst of peak color moving through the area around November 1oth. It doesn’t look spectacular at the moment, but I promise, you will see at least one tree that stands out from the rest with beautiful color!

For those planning on doing some camping and hiking this week, the weather is looking much nicer! If your travels brings you anywhere across the interior of New England, watch for downright cold weather for Wednesday and especially Thursday morning, when temperatures will dip into the 20’s! Otherwise, expect mainly dry weather at least through Friday. A coastal low may come close enough for some precipitation over the weekend, but that’s very questionable at this point.

Now time for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect mainly sunny skies with a brisk wind at times this afternoon. Temperatures will remain near seasonal levels, with highs in the mid to upper 50’s. Watch for clear and cool weather tonight, with lows dropping into the 30’s and 40’s.

For your Tuesday, I’m expecting a mix of sun and clouds, with emphasis on more clouds during the afternoon. It should remain mainly dry, though there could be some light showers in some communities during the afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels, with highs in the lower to mid 50’s.

A cold front will be crossing New England Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will be mostly dry, but there could be enough moisture to squeeze out some showers across south coast of New England and the Cape.Temperatures should fall into the 30’s and low 40’s, warmest along the coast.

Wednesday afternoon should feature clearing skies, and cooler weather. It will be a subtle change, but a wind shift will begin to bring in the coldest air of the season Wednesday night through Thursday. Temperatures are going to fall Wednesday night, with lows in the 20’s and low 30’s. Only urban areas along the coastal plain such as downtown Boston will remain above freezing. Frost is likely inside of Rt128, but a hard freeze is not likely. A hard freeze is likely outside of I95.

Thursday will feature chilly but dry weather, with highs mainly in the 40’s and very low 50’s.

Temperatures will begin to warm up slightly Friday and through the weekend. No Indian Summer is anticipated, but temperatures should rebound back to the mid 50’s, with lows mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s. As a reminder, don’t forget to “fall back” early Sunday morning, and turn your clocks back one hour!

A storm will be forming south of New England over the weekend. Earlier computer models showed this storm being a player in our weather this weekend, with coastal rain and mountain snow. However, recent computer model data has suppressed this storm, and keeps it out at sea. I hope this trend continues. If models trend the other way and track the storm closer to the coast, it would be problematic, as tides would now be astronomically high this weekend. This would introduce the threat of coastal flooding. I will monitor, and be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be sharing more of my thoughts for the upcoming winter forecast, which will be posted on November 22nd this year. I will also have a new camping & hiking forecast, and fall foliage report. In the meantime, seasonable is still reasonable for this week…but a November to remember could be the end result!

Thanks for reading!

Pete