October Nor’easter! 10/25/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a classic fall weekend across much of the region. Temperatures were finally at seasonal levels, and some areas even reported their first frost early Sunday morning! Projected storms stayed away, and the majority of New England enjoyed mostly sunny skies for both Saturday and Sunday. This was in stark contrast to waking up to a dark and rainy Monday morning across the Boston area.

You may not of noticed it, but there has been a rather abrupt change to our weather pattern. We have been enjoying one of the warmest autumn’s on record, up until about this past Friday. Endless days in the 70’s here in October, with overnight lows not dropping below 60, made it seem like summer would never end. The warm signs of fall were everywhere…plush green grass, flowers still blooming, green leaves on the trees, and non existent heating demand had many people wondering if the seasons were ever going to change this year?  Up to this point, Boston has been averaging 6.5 degrees above average…good enough for the second warmest October’s on record, only behind the infamous warm October of 1947.

While we were still basking in the glow of another day in the 70’s on Friday, a subtle cold front slipped through the region Friday night. I’m sure there were many who walked out the door Saturday morning without a jacket, only to turn right around realizing the temperature had dropped 20 degrees since the previous days! I should of known better…I was one of these people! Yes, some big changes have occurred, and suddenly…it’s fall!

How & when did this happen? We were enjoying one of the most glorious warm falls on record! In previous posts, I have been mentioning to be aware of the Greenland Block, and early disruption to the polar vortex. Well, it appears as if the Greenland Block has suddenly developed over the past several days. This means the North Atlantic Oscillation has turned negative, aka the -NAO. When this occurs, high pressure builds over Greenland. This forces the jet stream to buckle underneath, and form a trough or dip, across the eastern part of the United States. This allows the cold air that was up in eastern Canada to flow south, towards the eastern U.S. and especially here in New England. It doesn’t take much, and it seemingly happened overnight!

Now that the -NAO is established, we are in a new regime around here, for at least the next couple weeks, perhaps until mid November. There will be some brief spikes of mild air still, but the trend over the next couple weeks is for below normal temperatures and higher chances of storms…even the chance for a early season wintry nor’easter!

No sooner did the NAO turn negative, we have our first fall nor’easter of the season on our hands! If things play out as computer models are projecting…it could be quite a storm! Many people panic when they here nor’easter is coming, and immediately think feet of snow coming, time to go to the market to stock up on food and supplies. Well, this is a bit of a myth. A nor’easter can be either rain, snow, or a combination of the two! We have plenty of rainy nor’easter storms here, it’s just a matter of what time of the year it occurs, and if the temperature is cold enough to support frozen precipitation. Make no mistake about though, a nor’easter can make just as large of an impact whether it comes with rain or snow.

As it turns out, it’s still a little too early for snow to fall with the impending storm. However, this is not to say that it can never happen this time of the year. Just this morning the first snow of the season was reported & observed along the Kancamagus Highway in New Hampshire! This was not related to the impending nor’easter, but more of a overrunning event of warm air riding over a cold dome of air that was sitting across New Hampshire this weekend.

There have been many other early season nor’easter storms which produced snowfall across New England. Just last year, Boston observed it’s largest October snowstorm on record when 4.5″ of snow fell the day before Halloween at Logan Airport, with even more across the outlying areas!

Then there was the Halloween Nor’easter 10 years ago in 2011, when up to 30″ of snow fall in southwest New Hampshire and north central Massachusetts. Halloween was cancelled that year due to many folks not having power, and towering snowbanks! Oddly enough, that turned out to be one of the warmest winters on record that year, with hardly any snow the entire winter!

We have many things to worry about with this storm, however snow is not one of them. It’s still too warm in all layers of the atmosphere for any frozen precipitation to be involved. However, it’s looking like a powerful nor’easter in its own right! Two storms are going to merge off the mid Atlantic coast, then explode into a deep cyclone off Block Island and proceed to do a loop de loop before finally moving southeast of New England later Wednesday. For what it’s worth, they call that “the blizzard loop” when a storm tracks like this. This is because it keeps an onshore flow & moisture fetch going longer than a typical storm would, meaning greater impacts to our area. Should a similar storm develop in the colder months this winter, we could be looking at a crippling blizzard!

Long range computer models are hinting a couple more similar storms coming up. One is slated for this weekend, and another towards the end of the first week of November. The one in November is intriguing, as it may have more cold air to work with. It’s a long way off, but it’s something to monitor as we move into November. It’s possible winter could be getting off to a fast start across interior parts of New England this year.

NOAA released their winter forecast this past Thursday. In typical fashion, there are many generalizations in this forecast. Don’t get me wrong, I respect NOAA and the incredibly intelligent scientists who work there. Their research into atmospheric studies are amazing. However, there seasonal forecasts lead a lot to be desired. In most cases, it’s biased too warm. What they’re doing is broad brushing the pattern, using La Nina as a blueprint for their winter forecast. Basically, they’re calling for a colder than normal Pacific northwest and warm than normal east coast and south. As for precipitation,they’re calling for wetter than normal Pacific northwest, and drier than normal southern tier riding up to the mid Atlantic region.

Could they be correct? Yes, and in fact their forecast has been right more than wrong the past five years. I listened to the hour long streaming video they posted. I heard the lead meteorologist mention “average” quite a bit. Perhaps they are a bit gun shy guaranteeing a warm winter after last winters bizarre polar vortex outbreak that cost billions of dollars to residents of Texas last February. And that’s what it’s all about. It’s all about averages. We may have an incredible one month period of winter weather with record cold and 70″ of snow, but if the rest of the winter averages above normal, and the winter as a whole ended up above average, then statistically, their forecast was correct!

My official winter forecast will not be posted until November 22nd this year. However, it’s entirely possible we may already have had a wintry event or two even before winter actually arrives this year! I’m closely monitoring the polar vortex. There continues to be strong indications of a weak polar vortex, and early season blocking. We’re already witnessing early season blocking! If this indeed verifies, we could be in for early bouts of wintry weather in many areas of New England. I am anxious to read Dr. Judah Cohen’s blog post later today to see what he thinks. Judah Cohen is a Atmospheric Scientists who specializes in seasonal forecasting and studies of the polar vortex. Just placing your eggs in one basket thinking La Nina just means warm winter for New England is a bit risky. There are many other variables that may alter the typical La Nina pattern such as a weaker than normal polar vortex and frequent high latitude blocking. In certain years, La Nina’s can be exceptionally snowy, such as 1995-96, 2010-11, 2017-18.

If you are planning to go hiking or do some camping this week, perhaps you may want to reconsider. Overall, it looks too stormy, with heavy rainfall and strong winds. There may be a couple dry days Thursday and Friday, only to have more rain arrive this weekend. Perhaps we’ll have some Indian Summer in November this year?

Unfortunately, it looks like this storm will be the nail in the coffin for our fall foliage season this year around Boston. Just when the leaves finally seemed to be trying to change colors, a massive rain and windstorm are going to destroy peak fall foliage this year. We were doomed from the start. with the record heavy rains over the summer and now into fall, along with record warmest summer and now fall, the leaves didn’t have a chance around here. Now, a powerful storm with winds up to 60 mph for nearly two days, and wind driven rains are going to do a number on what typically is supposed to be peak foliage time around Boston. It’s still possible if we receive a frost in early November, there still is a chance of late burst of colors around November 10th? I’m predicting leaves to be still on the trees when our first snowfall arrives in early November this year!

Of course this was not the case in other parts of New England this year. Northern New England, along with parts of Vermont enjoyed another season of beautiful fall colors this year. This is because they didn’t receive as much rainfall as we did in southern New England this summer. It was also just cool enough at night for leaves to change color. It was later than previous years, but it still happened. Sadly, if the climate continues to warm, foliage may not be the same in future years if the climate continues to warm. It seems we are seeing the effects already down here in southern New England.

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Impact scale for this nor’easter coming up will be a 7 out of 10. I believe it will have more of an impact than Tropical Storm Henri this past summer.

Expect gloomy conditions for the rest of your Monday. There is quite a temperature boundary setting up across southern New England today. A warm front made it up into southern New England earlier south of I-90, where temperatures warmed up into the low 60’s, even low 70’s along the extreme south coast. The warm front never made it to Boston, and now winds are backing more from east to northeast, with falling temperatures into the lower 50’s. Looks like most of the rain has temporarily stopped. It will be damp nonetheless.

Tonight will feature widespread drizzle and fog. Later on, expect rain to redevelop later this evening and become heavy at times towards morning. There’s also the chance of a few thunderstorms. Winds will begin to pick up as we head towards early Tuesday morning. It will be damp and chilly, with lows in the 40’s.

A multi faceted nor’easter will be the main focus of attention beginning tomorrow, especially tomorrow night into midday Wednesday. As I mentioned earlier, this looks like some of our big winter storms on the weather maps we receive here in New England. But fortunately this is going to be all rain, if you’re not a fan of snow! Two storms are going to merge south of New England tomorrow, and turn into a dangerous early season nor’easter. Many watches and warnings are currently in effect ranging from coastal flood advisory, high wind warning and flood watches. The storms are going to consolidate, rapidly intensify, do a loop de loop south of New England, then slowly drift away on Wednesday.

Expect a wind driven rain tomorrow, with rapidly deteriorating conditions the deeper we go into the day. Even heavier rain will arrive by mid afternoon. Winds will begin to increase from the northeast to between 30 and 40 mph, then to 40 to 50 mph by evening. It will be on the cool side, but not cold enough for snow. Highs will be between 45 and 55 degrees across the region. Much like with big storms in the winter, the bulk of this storm is going to be felt across southern New England and parts of southern Maine coast, seacoast region of New Hampshire, but not much further north than that.

Tuesday night looks stormy! Look for a wind driven heavy rain, with winds gusting to between 50 and 60 mph across the Boston area, especially if you live a few miles of the coastline. Along the water, these winds will definitely pack a punch! Winds could even exceed this along the south coast and Cape Cod, where gusts could reach between 60 and 70 mph. With winds this strong, and foliage still on the trees, expect some large branches to be broken, or even whole trees to come down, resulting in a moderate to high risk of power outages in many communities. If you don’t have to go out, please stay safe and warm in your house!

Tides are astronomically low right now. Thank God! However, do not become complacent! This just means we may avert a major coastal flooding event. With a storm this powerful, there still will be large waves crashing along the shoreline, and the risk of minor, to perhaps moderate coastal flooding, in the ednesday morning high tide. cycle. The problem is that the storm is going to stall south of New England, keeping the onshore flow going into Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall and winds will begin to slowly diminish Wednesday, but it still may be raining for much of the day, along with some gusty winds. Expect delays and possibly even some cancellations. If you get water in your basement, there’s a 60% chance you may get some in this storm. Our area is expecting between 3 and 5″ of rain. This is on top of the record heavy rains we received this past summer. It all depends how far the water table has dropped, and whether it has enough room to absorb the storm.

Expect improving weather for both Thursday and Friday of this week. While I don’t see any rain for these two days, I also do not see a lot of sunshine and warm temperatures either. There may be some breaks, but overall it looks to be on the cool side, and a lot of clouds.

Yet another storm will be approaching New England for this weekend. This too may turn into another nor’easter, with gusty winds, and heavy rainfall! This looks to be moving in Friday night, and continuing through much of the day on Saturday, along with temperatures mainly in the upper 50’s.

If there’s any silver lining, it appears as if this storm will slowly begin to pull out of the region by Sunday morning. If this verifies, there’s still some hope for a decent afternoon and evening for Halloween Trick or Treat time! As the storm pulls away, it doesn’t look cold on Sunday by any means. In fact, temperatures could warm up into the low 60’s if we see any sun by afternoon. This is a far cry from the cold and snow of last Halloween!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to focus in on my winter thoughts, and let you know if there are any chances for early season wintry events. I will also review October, and preview the month of November. In the meantime, I would still classify this as more of a trick than a treat this Halloween week…but at least it’s not snow!

~Keep safe & warm~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

New Colors of Fall…10/18/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a very nice weekend weather wise for this time of the year. Saturday featured very warm temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. A cold front moved through the region Saturday night, bringing with it a line of showers and downpours. Most areas received a third to a half of inch of rain, though some areas across the outer Cape saw a bit more. Sunday turned out to be a beautiful fall day, with mainly sunny skies, and cooler temperatures. You may of thought it felt a bit chilly, but in reality, temperatures still averaged slightly above normal for the date. Temperatures dropped a bit more last night, but Boston has yet to fall below 50 degrees this fall. With temperatures struggling to reach 60 today, it looks like tonight will finally be the night temperatures fall below 50 degrees in the city, the latest occurrence on record.  There has been no 32 degree readings in any location across southern New England so far this fall. This may all change a week from today.

I’m not talking about any cold snap here, but most computer models are showing a decent push of cold air arriving after a storm moves through this weekend. How cold are we talking? Well, it may be cold enough that much of the growing season may be ending outside of Rt 128, and especially I495, with temperatures falling into the 20’s and 30’s across the interior, and 30’s and 40’s along the coast. At the very least, this will result in first frosts and freezes across interior New England. This would be still be a good 2 to 3 weeks later than average. High temperatures next Monday & Tuesday would be slightly below average for a change, with temperatures remaining in the 40’s and 50’s. As quickly as this happens, there are strong indications that the pattern reverts back to warmer than normal temperatures as we head into Halloween weekend.

This is still a week away, and things can still change. Nothing is set in stone in this pattern. We are in the midst of one of the warmest Octobers on record. In addition, Boston is currently experiencing its warmest years on record! This makes sense, as January, March, May, and especially June, August, September and now October have featured well above average temperatures, if not record warm temperatures in some cases.We already had the warmest summer on record, so Mother Nature may be going for gold!

As warm as it has been in the eastern part of the U.S. a new regime is developing out west, and it couldn’t of arrived soon enough! We are entering a second year La Nina (colder than normal water in the eastern Pacific Ocean). Typically, this means a warm & dry winter for much of California. However, there are many factors that determine the weather patterns in any given La Nina or El Nino for that matter.

In general terms, La Nina often brings cold weather to Alaska and Pacific northwest, including north central U.S. such as Montana. These regions often receive stormy winters, with well above average snowfall. In contrast, La Nina winters are typically warm and dry from southern California, across Arizona, the southern Rockies, most of Texas, then extending across the southern part of the U.S. up along the east coast including the mid Atlantic region. For us here in New England, La Nina winters can be extremely volatile with rapid changes. It can certainly be cold & snowy at times, but can also feature long stretches of mild, benign weather.

Last winter was a classic La Nina winter here in southern New England. Interior locations observed more snowfall than along the coast. Overall, it was a warmer than normal winter. November, December, January and March all came in with above average temperatures. Only February featured close to average temperatures. In other parts of New England, it was not typical. Northern New England typically sees above average snow, and colder than normal temperatures in La Nina winters. Aside from a big snowstorm in December, the bulk of the winter saw below average snow. Nevertheless, it was cold enough after the Christmas Day meltdown to maintain snow for a decent ski season at many resorts.

Second year La Nina’s can feature a wide variety of outcomes. Back in the 2010-11 winter, first year La Nina brought near record snowfall in Boston, all within a 5 week period from the day after Christmas, to February 2nd. During this stretch, Boston received an astounding 81″ of snow! It was a massive snow blitz that left the city nearly paralyzed. Just one year later, in the second year La Nina, Boston observed the second least snowiest winter on record, with only 9.4″ of snow for the entire winter! It was also one of the warmest, with week long stretches of 80’s in October and March of 2012. it was known as “the year without a winter” around here.

Another back to back La Nina in recent years delivered different results not too long ago. Back in 2016-17 a first year La Nina brought a sloppy winter to coastal New England, with many mixed precipitation events. Interior New England and especially Maine got blasted that winter, with well above average snow, if not record snows in some areas. Another La Nina a year later brought above average snowfall to the Boston area with a blizzard in early January of 2018, and another near blizzard in March of that year. Since the 2017-18 winter, Boston has received three straight winters of below average snowfall.

What will this second year La Nina bring to New England this winter? This is the million dollar question right now! So far, all of New England is getting off to a very warm start! All the cold and storms have shifted out west here in October. Cold air has been building up in the Gulf of Alaska all fall, and is ready to be unleashed into the western part of the U.S. starting this week. This will bring a parade of large Pacific storms crashing into the west coast, bringing with them heavy low elevation rainfall, and up to 6 ft of snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains!

It’s still a bit too early to determine how severe or mild this winter is going to be here in New England. There are some signals pointing towards a lot of snow & cold, yet there are just as many pointing towards a repeat of 2011-12. My official winter forecast will be posted on November 22nd this year. Not too far away!

Some long range guidance is showing a change as we head into November. Last week I talked in great detail about a possible weak polar vortex to start the winter. With the way this year has been going, I’m somewhat skeptical on this scenario panning out. Computer models have backed off a bit on a polar vortex disruption in November. Earlier, it was showing the warm air mass migrating north into Canada. This would lead to a strong jet stream undercutting this block, bringing stormy and colder weather to much of the east coast. Models have somewhat backed off on this scenario, showing more warmth overwhelming the pattern. This is preliminary and changes every day. It still could go back the other way. I will be interested to see what atmospheric scientist Dr. Judah Cohen writes in his blog this evening concerning this evolution.

I know what you’re thinking… if it’s warmer up in Canada, how would that make it colder here in New England? Yes, when high pressure develops in northern Canada, it forces their cold air down into New England. What may of been warmer than normal for them up there, is actually colder than normal by the time it reaches us down here.

Remember, a weaker polar vortex leads to greater risk of periods of wintry weather across the lower 48. November is key in my opinion. Should the vortex be disrupted and remain weak, it will be reflected in the weather patterns with early season cold air and possibly even some wintry events! If the vortex strengthens in November, it will flood the country with mild Pacific air, possibly leading to one of the warmest winters on record since 2011-12!

Time for your weekly outdoor camping and hiking forecast. If you happen to be camping or hiking this week, it looks nearly perfect through Thursday. Thereafter, you may be running into some inclement weather later Friday and at times into the upcoming weekend. Expect chilly weather for the rest of today and tomorrow, with lows dipping into the 30’s and 40’s, and highs in the 50’s. Then watch for a quick warm up for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the upper 60’s low 70’s, and nighttime lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Several cold fronts heading towards New England may interact with a weak coastal low pressure across the mid Atlantic region, and slowly track across New England this weekend. I don’t see any washouts at this time, but expect a few showers and cooler temperatures the deeper we go into the weekend.

Now time for your weekly fall foliage report. Reports coming off of social media is showing peak fall colors have recently passed the White Mountain region of New Hampshire, extending southwest into the Berkshires of Massachusetts. Colors are coming on strong in parts of Worcester County, north central Massachusetts, even into some of Boston’s suburbs. Any drive heading west of Boston along Rt 2 would be running into peak fall colors over the next week. Towns southwest of Boston along Rt 109, Rt 135 and Rt 140 are also popular drives for good foliage viewing. Warm ocean temperatures, and lack of cold nights is delaying foliage across most areas of New England. This is especially true along coastal regions, where peak is still a couple weeks away, if not into the first week or two of November. Reports of good color this year across many areas, with the brightest colors found way up north where the summer was drier. Nonetheless, with cooler nights finally arriving, leaves will be turning bright colors even in your own back yard over the next 10 days. I always said, if you can’t take a foliage trip, Mother Nature will come right to you!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

It’s been a beautiful autumn afternoon. Expect mainly sunny skies and light winds for the balance of your Monday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will top off near 60 degrees in the city, 50’s across the interior. Watch for mainly clear and chilly weather for tonight, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s. There may be our first touch of frost in some of the normally colder low lying towns across the distant interior.

After a chilly start, expect similar weather for your Tuesday, with lots of bright sun mixed with some clouds, and temperatures mainly in the upper 50’s. Tuesday night may be a touch colder than tonight. Therefore, even more communities may experience a bit more patchy frost. Still nothing widespread is expected, certainly nothing int the city and along the coast.

Watch for warmer weather and breezy conditions for Wednesday through Friday, with highs rebounding back up into the upper 60’s even low 70’s for some communities! There may be a bit more cloudiness on Friday, but I do believe the warm air is going to hang on through the day.

The weekend is a bit iffy right now. There will be a rather complex system headed towards New England from the west and south. Overall, I’m not expecting a washout by any means. However, with fronts crossing the area, I’m expecting it to be cooler, but not far from average, with highs in the 50’s and lower 60’s. A weak coastal low will be developing off the coast, and may throw in a few showers from time to time. It may even be dry most of the time, just too difficult to tell from now. A stronger front may bring a few more showers later Sunday into early Monday, before the coldest air mass of the season arrives, with frosty weather early next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will be sharing more of my winter thoughts in more detail, as more information comes in. I will also have your Halloween weekend forecast, as well as a new fall foliage report. In the meantime, enjoy the colors of summer or the colors of fall…we all know what the next color will be!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

No Frost on The Pumpkin… 10/11/21

Hello! Happy Indigenous Day, formerly known as Columbus Day! Due to the pandemic, it’s also Marathon Monday here in Boston! We also have the Boston Red Sox playing this weekend. Certainly no shortages of events in the city this weekend. I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! So far, though not a washout, the weather has been rather gray and mild. While Saturday was a bit cooler, Sunday felt a bit milder. Had the sun been out in full force, we may of been able to add 10 degrees to the high temperatures we experienced.

If you’re a fan of crisp fall days, and chilly nights, this has not been the autumn for you! I know I am. To be honest, all it’s been so far is an extension of summer. It has yet to fall below 50 degrees in Boston. Perhaps even more shocking, Caribou, Maine, which is the same latitude as Quebec City in Canada, has yet to register its first 32 degree low temperature. From latest first frosts and freezes to delayed fall foliage, we could go on and on speaking about all the warm weather records this fall.

It’s been very disappointing for those who love brisk fall weather. There’s nothing like going on a fall foliage trip on a crisp autumn day in New England. With temperatures like this, people still have beach on their minds!

For those who love warm weather, and I know there are a lot of you out there, it’s been unending cycle of warm falls and mild winters. In the past 20 years, I can remember only 6 which have featured colder than normal winters. And we’re on a streak of 6 straight years starting from 2015-16 winter of warmer than normal winters, most likely heading towards the seventh.

A few weeks ago I spoke of when our region typically experiences its first frost. Well, if Caribou, Maine has not experienced its first freeze as of yet, you know we are running way behind this year! Well, for interior locations, many would of already experienced their first frost the first week of October. It’s not uncommon for some colder valley’s such as Concord, N.H. and even some low lying towns in Massachusetts to experience frost in mid to late September. But this has not been the case this year, not even in those locations. It takes until about the third week of October for frost to arrive to interior parts of Boston, and the first week of November in town, along the immediate coast and at Logan Airport.

Why do I keep talking about frost so much? Well, it’s an important indicator of air masses, source regions, and the end of the growing season. If you don’t receive a frost or freeze, you may as well be living in Florida! In fact, one important sign I look at in determining my winter forecast, is when the region sees its first frost. Being late for anything is never a good idea. Late frosts and freezes is not a good sign for a snowy and cold winter in my opinion.

Back in the fall of 2006, Boston did not receive its first freeze until December 6th (latest on record)! This is nearly a full month later than average. Needless to say, the city experienced a very mild winter that year, with below average snowfall. Surprises do happen. Just last year, we were experiencing another warm October, until the last week of the month. If you recall, the city experienced a cold last week of October, followed by a record setting pre Halloween snowstorm, which dumped between 4 and 6″ across the city! This was followed by record cold weather for Halloween Day, and the start of November. Once this unseasonably cold air mass moved out, tranquil, mild weather returned for the bulk of November. The region experienced a two week stretch of true Indian Summer weather, with high temperatures in the 70’s each day, with tons of golden sunshine. While last winter finished with below average snowfall at Logan Airport, many interior communities received a good amount of snow, highlighted by a mid December nor’easter. It was the snowiest winter in the Boston area in three years.

Another by product of all this warm weather, is a late foliage season. No matter what the weather, the leaves are going to change and fall. How bright and when they fall is determined by many factors. The weather plays a big factor in when the leaves change. Wet summers and warm falls lead to delayed change in the foliage. Sure enough, many are reporting a two week delay in the fall foliage this year. I will talk more about this in my fall foliage report shortly.

Some meteorologists and weather enthusiasts begin looking for signs of the upcoming winter in September and especially here in October. While it’s warm right now, the atmosphere its beginning to undergo changes to prepare for winter. Dr Judah Cohen is following the development of the polar vortex this fall. The polar vortex is a vortex of low pressure that spins counterclockwise with very cold air that spins over the arctic regions, which develops during the autumn months. The polar vortex is our main source of cold air during winter months. The effects it has on our climate is counter intuitive. A weak vortex stretches and elongates like taffy into the mid latitudes where we live, and is typically associated with severe winter weather. If the vortex splits, it typically brings severe winter weather to several locations around the Northern Hemisphere.

A strong vortex is the opposite of what you’d expect. It typically brings mild, benign weather patterns. When the vortex is strong, it remains locked up across the arctic regions, with little to no effects on us. We can still receive wintry weather without the polar vortex, just due to seasonal variations. However, when the vortex gets involved, it can become severe. Think of the extreme cold snap that gripped the people of Texas last winter. This was a piece of the polar vortex that lodged itself over Texas for a few weeks. The destruction was similar to a major hurricane striking the region, though may of been more widespread!

There are several long range computer models that are indicating a major disruption to the newly formed vortex sometime later this month. This could set the stage for some kind of early season cold snap with unusually early wintry weather for some parts of the country as we head into November. Interestingly enough, the same models show the vortex retreating and remaining strong as we head into the heart of winter into early spring. I have been mentioning the possibility of a possible reversal to this unusually warm weather here in October to an early winter sometime in late November into December. This would be classic La Nina winter, with a reversal once again to warmer weather for the second half of winter. My official winter forecast will be posted on November 22nd this year, but I will be sharing many of my thoughts before then!

Time for our second fall foliage report. Despite the lack of frosts, reports coming out from the North Country have been very encouraging! No doubt, you have to do some research to verify some of these pictures taken this time of the year. For some strange reason, some folks like to post pictures from past years to gain notoriety. Nevertheless, the majority of people have been posting current pictures, and many are breathtaking! Pictures from the higher elevations of Vermont, White Mountain region of New Hampshire, and interior Maine are now showing peak fall foliage, with pockets of brilliant reds, oranges and yellows!  Watch the color wave to slowly sink south this week, into central and southern New Hampshire, and even into north central Massachusetts, including the Berkshires.

Here in eastern Mass, I have been noticing more and more trees beginning to change. As I mentioned last week, many of the leaves are healthy, so some of the colors have been deep reds and golds. If we receive some cooler nights, I still could see a long lasting fall foliage season here in the Boston area extending into the first week or two of November this year. As a rule of thumb, drought conditions bring faster foliage seasons with vivid colors which fade quickly. Wet seasons can mean a longer season, with leaves staying on the trees longer. If the leaves are healthy like this year, it could yield a very scenic colorful season. So far, I would rate this season a 7 out of 10 up north.

Now for your weekly outdoor camping & hiking forecast. Expect a mainly dry and mild week for many outdoor activities. In fact, the period Tuesday through Thursday looks downright warm, with temperatures in the 70’s during the days, and 50’s at night. There will be some rain moving through sometime this weekend, so be prepared for that! It will also be turning cooler, but no cold or frost is anticipated at this time.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect splashes of sun and mild weather for the balance of this afternoon. It will be a fine evening for a walk in the neighborhood or at the park. As mentioned, temperatures will be on the mild side, with highs in the upper 60’s to near 70.

Watch for clearing skies overnight, with lows dropping into the 40’s and low 50’s across rural areas, and mid 50’s in urban locations. There may be some late night patchy ground fog.Any early morning fog should quickly burn off next few mornings.

Expect warmer than normal weather and mainly sunny skies for the period Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures should warm up into the mid 70’s each day, and cool off only to the low to mid 50’s at night. Can you say hello, September?? Wow!

A fairly strong storm will be tracking northwest of New England this weekend. When a storm takes this track, it typically swings a warm front our way from the south, and a cold front moving across New England from the west. The combination of these two fronts will bring a period of rain moving through the region, with the chance of some gusty winds and possibly even a thunderstorm. It’s hard to pin down timing at this point, but right now it looks like late Saturday, Saturday night into Sunday morning. It should turn briefly cooler at the beginning of next week, but certainly not to frosty levels as of yet, at least around Boston.

Well, that’s about it for now! There may be another pause in my posting next Monday, depending upon my work schedule. If there is a pause, I will see everyone on October 25th. If not, I will be posting next Monday and be talking about some early ideas of what this winter will be bringing. I will also have a new fall foliage report and let everyone know just how long this unusually warm weather will be lasting for. In the meantime, enjoy the extended period of warm weather, I’m sure we’ll be seeing frost on the pumpkin soon enough!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Warmer Trends Continue…10/4/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! How about that football game last night? Though the Patriots lost the game, I believe there’s lots to be encouraged about in the near future! As for our weather, it depended upon where you were. If you were up north, it was mainly cloudy and cool, with periods of showers. For southern areas, there was more sun, and it was a lot warmer. If you live in between, there was cloudy periods, but also some periods of sun. It was quite mild on Saturday, with Boston reaching a high of 77 degrees. Sunday was slightly cooler, but still comfortable to be outdoors. If you watched the game last night, you saw rain pelting down on the players at Gillette stadium in Foxborough. This rain continued overnight into this morning, leading to a very wet start to the new week.

Last week I mentioned a change in pattern to a more fall like feel. Well, that did happen, as we did see a brief shot of fall like air, especially on Thursday and part of Friday. But it was very brief, and fleeting. I like to call it an island of cool in a sea of warmth. Tuesday was also a surprise, as it rained a lot more than I anticipated. A small storm system developed and slowed down the cold front along the coast, leading to a more widespread area of rainfall. What’s new for summer and now fall of 2021! It’s been a very wet stretch. In fact, I believe I mentioned it last week that this past July through September was the wettest three month stretch on record in Boston! It was also the second warmest September on record!

Channel 4 meteorologist Eric Fisher posted some interesting observations over the weekend. Boston is about to break yet another warm weather record for not dropping below 50 degrees in the fall season. The latest such occurrence was October 13th, 2018. Looking at some computer data for overnight lows for the next week, it appears that record will be broken this year without any resistance. Taking a step further, Eric posted that our autumn weather (September – November) has warmed significantly over the last 50 years. Much of New England is between 2.5 and 3.5, and in some isolated areas, between 3.5 and 4.5 degrees warmer in fall compared to what it was 50 years ago. Yes, the climate is warming, and sadly it’s happening right before our eyes.

I used to believe this was part of our natural climate cycles. There is truth to the fact that the climate goes through warm and cold cycles. Many climate scientists have done extensive research to prove this. Perhaps this is still the case. However, if we are indeed just going through a warm cycle, this will be one of the warmest cycles in recorded history.

When I was a kid growing up, I can distinctly remember the first autumn chill in the air right around Labor Day. This would be followed by many more chilly days & nights for the rest of the month. The chilly nights would also get the foliage going early too. Did you know there was a time when peak fall foliage was in Boston’s suburbs on Columbus Day weekend back in the 60’s and 70’s? It would only be a week or two after that peak foliage was in Boston…always the week of Halloween. Foliage is getting later and later in our area, especially if you live close to the coast. Peak foliage does not arrive in Boston until the first week or two in November these days.

This October will be no different. I’m expecting a much warmer than normal month in Boston. Normal high temperatures start in the upper 60’s at the start of the month, and cool into the upper 50’s by months end. Overnight lows start on the upper 40’s at the start, and cool to the upper 30’s by the end of October. Looking over the long range computer data, temperatures look overwhelmingly warm through at least October 20th. Could the pattern change to cooler temperatures later in the month? Yes, there are signs it could turn cooler, but this is not a guaranty at this point, only speculation.

It’s hard to tell how much precipitation we’re going to receive this month. Long range computer models are showing a drier signal, only to turn out wetter than normal. I’m sticking with the trend of this past summer and going with another above average month of precipitation. Average precipitation in October is around 4″. Notice I’m saying precipitation. Yes, October is the month we can begin to introduce the threat of frozen precipitation in our region. In fact, it was just last year Boston observed it’s largest October snowstorm on record, when between 4 and 6″ of snow fell the day before Halloween in the city! Up to that point, Boston’s record snowfall for October was just 1.1″ which fell back in October 2009. It doesn’t snow every year in October, but it does and can occur from time to time.

Last year was a La Nina winter (colder than normal water in southern Pacific Ocean). It looks like we are moving towards yet another La Nina this winter. October snowfall is notorious in La Nina autumns. Remember the Halloween snowstorm back in 2011? This was a major storm, dumping up to 2 ft of snow across parts of central Massachusetts and interior southern New Hampshire. As it turned out, this was the largest snowstorm of the entire winter. Winter 2011-12 ended up being one of the warmest and least snowy winter on record.

What implications does La Nina have for our upcoming winter? It’s still a bit too early to tell for sure. I’m only now beginning to gather data in preparation for my 2021-22 winter forecast, which will be posted on November 22. La Nina’s are fickle and unpredictable. Just because it’s most likely going to be a warmer than normal October, the pattern could flip to colder in November.

La Nina’s are notorious for wild swings from month to month. Just last year, we saw generally a mild winter…but December saw a major mid month snowstorm, only to turn very warm on Christmas Day with temperatures warming into the 60’s with heavy rain washing all the snow away. January was warm…only to turn cold and snowy in February. Winter abruptly ended in March, with a very mild and least snowy March’s on record. I’m very interested in the November temperature and precipitation departures to help me make an educated guess.

Last winter, I predicted between 40 and 50″ of snow in Boston. While Logan Airport came in with 38.6″, many surrounding neighborhoods did receive between 40 and 50″ of snow. This was slightly below average for Logan, but near average for city in general. Overall, the city typically receives between 45 and 50″ of snow in a normal season.

Before I get to my forecast, I wanted to quickly review our summer. As I have mentioned in earlier posts, this was the warmest summer on record in Boston. It was also the second wettest summer in recorded history. Overall, it wasn’t a pleasant summer to be outdoors…too hot & wet for my liking! My original forecast called for between 17 and 18 ninety degree days, and more wet than previous years. By my final update at the summer solstice, I upgraded these 90 degree days to 19 and 23. How did I do? Well, I was still not hot enough! Boston ended up receiving 24 ninety degree days this summer, and was much wetter than I anticipated! Still, given the complexity of the patterns, I was on the right track. I would give myself a B+ for the summer forecast. It was a hot summer, and it shows that hotter summers are here to stay in my opinion. I see no evidence at this time to think next summer won’t be much different, though most likely not as wet!

Now for your second fall foliage report. I am encouraged by some of the reports being shared on Twitter and social media. The leaves are beginning to change quickly in the higher terrain of Vermont, White Mountain region of New Hampshire and interior Maine. Judging by these reports, it looks like peak colors will be arriving by Columbus Day weekend in these locations! The color looks good. Perhaps not as vivid as last year, but very solid deep colors which may last longer than last year for sure!

For us here in eastern New England, the forecast is not as optimistic. Warm ocean temperatures are preventing leaves from changing. In fact, with warmer temperatures expected for much of October, we will likely see a delayed fall foliage season. It’s going to be tricky this year. We’ve had a ton of rain this summer, but it was also very hot, and now it continues to be very warm here in early autumn. The leaves look quite healthy, with very little fungus or black tar disease. We need some cooler weather. If we do not receive colder weather at night soon, we will miss the opportunity for bright colors. Peak may not arrive in Boston until the second week of November this year. I will continue to monitor the situation and have another update for everyone next week.

Now for your outdoor camping and hiking forecast. Today and tomorrow look to be the most inclement weather of the week. Expect splendid October weather for the period of Wednesday through Friday, with temperatures in the lower to mid 70’s and light winds. It may turn slightly cooler for Saturday and Sunday, but nothing cold is anticipated. There could be some showers next Monday, but that is not a certainty at this time.

Now time for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week an 7 out of 10. Expect cloudy and rather damp conditions for the rest of this afternoon. It will be on the chilly side, with highs mainly in the lower 60’s.

Watch for another period of rain to move through the region later this evening into the overnight. Some of the rain could be briefly heavy. It will be mild with lows mainly in the 50’s.

Tuesday morning could start off wet, but this should be moving out by mid morning at the latest. I’m expecting dryer weather for the afternoon, but how much sun we may see is still somewhat in question. Light onshore winds could keep stubborn low clouds from burning off. If the sun comes out, it could boost temperatures into the upper 60’s. If not, we’ll be stuck in the lower 60’s.

Expect clearing skies and cool weather for Tuesday night, but not cold by any means. Temperatures will fall into the 40’s and low 50s. There may be some patchy ground fog in low lying areas.

Look for warmer and drier weather for the period Wednesday through Friday. If we had any frost, you could even call it a stretch of Indian Summer!  Expect temperatures to be in the lower to mid 70’s each day, and 50’s at night.

Next weekend is also looking good to me at this point. With a light onshore wind, it may be 10 degrees cooler, but still pleasant for October standards. There may be more clouds around, as weak storm systems will be in our vicinity to our north and south. We should remain mainly dry, but I’ll keep an eye out in case there are any changes.

Well, that’s about it for now friends! In next week’s post, I will be letting you know just how long this extended warm weather may be sticking around for. I will also have a new camping & hiking outlook, and my third fall foliage report. In the meantime, enjoy the warmer trends for now, as we are now on borrowed time!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Hello, Fall! 9/27/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, the theme of summer continued, with plenty of sun, and warm temperatures. There were some exceptions! Cape Cod, who has missed the the majority of the heavy rainfall of this past summer, received torrential amounts of rain overnight Saturday. This band of heavy rain extended up to Plymouth, Ma. but quickly diminished in the Boston area to less than an inch. After this front pushed through, sunshine and warm temperatures returned for the balance of your Sunday.

Many in New England are still waiting for that first push of fall air! If you are one of these people, your wait is almost over! Just about every year, there seems to be a day of demarcation, when summer ends, and fall begins. For this year, that day will be tomorrow. No doubt, in a warming climate, we will reach the 70’s again several times in October, perhaps even the start of November. However, after tomorrow, the winds of fall will usher in our first chilly air mass of the season!

How chilly? Actually, temperatures may only cool to seasonal levels, but compared to where we’ve been, it will feel much cooler than what we’ve been used to. This time of the year, high temperatures should average in the upper 60’s around Boston, with lows in the upper 40’s. This is about where we’re going to be starting on Wednesday straight on through the upcoming weekend. At its coolest point, we may be in the lower 60’s during the day, and lower 40’s at night. This will be quite a change coming off the warmest summer ever recorded in Boston!

These are temperatures for here in Boston. You know the interior and up in northern New England are going to be colder. In fact, we may need to introduce our first frost and freeze warnings for interior locations later this week into this weekend. Average first frost in interior locations is around October 5th, so this is right around the time when we would expect it.

We continue to set records for this past summer. Longtime Boston meteorologist Dave Epstein talked about on his podcast this morning that this is the wettest three month period of July, August and September in Boston history, with a whopping 23.78″ of rainfall! It’s also been the longest stretch when daytime high temperatures remained at 70 degrees or higher, beginning way back on July 5th! This is not uncommon for July and August. However, when we get into September, we typically see a high temperatures that remains in the 60’s. This still has not happened this month. After tomorrow, the streak will finally be broken, as temperatures look to remain in the 60’s on Wednesday and straight on into the weekend.

Will this hot & wet summer ever end?? Yes, as I mentioned above, the seasons are finally beginning to move along. I believe after tomorrow, new weather patterns will be arriving, ending this incredible siege of warm & wet weather. Is this the large scale hemispheric pattern change I’m looking for to really shake up our weather patterns? No, I believe this is just a normal seasonal change. We are still in a predominantly warmer than normal cycle. I expect warm surges of above average weather to continue into October this year. This will be punctuated by colder air masses to remind us that winter is not far away.

While October may still end up above average temperatures, keep an eye out for November!  There are some indications from long range computer models of early season high latitude blocking developing, aka the Greenland Block. There are also indications of a possible early season Polar Vortex disruption. Computer models are indicating this may get going during October. Here across the mid latitudes, we see the results of these disruptions about a month later. Now, it may be too early for anything to happen. It may just end up meaning a seasonable November is on the way. However, there’s also a possibility that something more can come out of this…perhaps even an early arrival to winter in some locations?? That would be a huge change to what we’ve been used to over the last 15 to 20 years or so. I will monitor this closely as we move into October.

It’s still too early to tell how this winter is going to be. Early forecasts from media outlets are all over the place with their predictions. I begin to assemble my data during October & November to come up with my best educated forecast possible. My official winter forecast will not be posted until November 22nd this year, but as always, I will be sharing some of my thoughts along the way! Early indications look to be quite interesting if you enjoy winter!

It’s been quite another active hurricane season this year. After last years record setting 30 named storms, we are well on our way to either tying or even breaking this record! Hurricane experts who predicted another active season were on point! This year, the National Hurricane Center has decided to add an auxiliary list of names, so no more Greek letters of the alphabet after Wanda. So far, Ida has been the costliest storm of the summer, hitting Louisiana and New Orleans area hard, leaving thousands without power and leveling homes. Other tropical storms have also hit coastal areas resulting in significant damage. Hurricane season continues up until November 30th, and sometimes longer, so we’re not out of the woods just yet.

Last week, I forgot to mention about New England’s most intense storm to ever hit the area in recorded history. Back on September 21st, 1938, a fierce hurricane raced up along the eastern seaboard, producing a storm surge of 20 ft, drowning 600 people in Providence, R.I. as the ocean unexpectedly flooded the city. The city now has hurricane barriers to prevent such a catastrophe from happening today. Because of it’s fast forward motion, this storm was also know n as “The Long Island Express” as it crashed into Long Island, then into southern New England. Eastern Massachusetts was on the dangerous right quadrant of the storm as it tracked into central Massachusetts, then into Vermont. Winds were recorded as high as 186 mph on top of Blue Hill, right here in Milton, Massachusetts! If a storm of this caliber were ever to happen today, the consequences would be devastating.

A friend on Twitter tweeted out how wimpy the name Peter was. Yes, Peter has come and gone, barely reaching tropical storm status. I told him that’s fine by me, I wouldn’t want my name associated with billions of dollars worth of property damage, and the casualties that come along with it!

Now for your camping, hiking and fall foliage report. This looks to be a perfect week for all three of these activities. Watch for a few showers passing through later today and tomorrow, otherwise expect dry and chilly weather for the balance of the week into this weekend. If you’re going camping, bring a good sleeping bag or blankets, as temperatures will be dropping into the 30’s across many interior locations and especially up north!

Now time for my first fall foliage report of the season. It’s certainly slower than last year, but the leaves are beginning to change! For this weekend, you have to travel to far northern New England to view leaves that are 60% changed. Early reports and pictures are of some bright colors popping in these locations. With all that being said, you will encounter some trees changing colors even south of this area, especially in central Vermont and across the White Mountain region into interior Maine.Expect the peak color wave to begin descending from northern New England as each week passes. I would expect peak colors to arrive across high profile viewing areas such as central and southern Vermont, Kancamagus Highway of New Hampshire and central Maine approximately by Columbus Day weekend! Right on time!

It looks like the cooler weather is arriving just in a nick of time! These cooler temperatures are going to help leaves close down their nutrient supply. This, along with a diminished photosynthesis (less sunlight) will begin to show the true colors of the leaves. Due to heavy summer rainfall and very warm temperatures, we could be looking at a slow, drawn out fall foliage season hear in Massachusetts. In years like these, colors tend to be muted. However, if we see the perfect combination of cool to chilly nights and less rainfall,  we may be treated to beautiful fall foliage season, that has staying power!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect building clouds for the rest of this afternoon. There may be a brief passing shower, but most of this activity should pass north of Boston into southern New Hampshire, where there will be a period of showers moving through. Temperatures will be warm, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70’s.

Look for mainly dry & mild conditions this evening, with the exception across southern New Hampshire and seacoast region, where showers will come to an end. Overnight, expect mainly cloudy skies, and mild conditions.

A strong autumn cold front will be crossing New England Tuesday. As this front pushes through, there’s the chance for some showers and even scattered thunderstorms. I’m not expecting a washout, but be aware that showers will be around tomorrow. It will continue to be mild, with highs once again reaching 70 or a little better.

As this front sweeps off the coast, it may just sweep summer away with it. I’m expecting fall like weather conditions to arrive to New England for the period Wednesday through Sunday. There will be sun, but also some clouds. A few weak disturbances will rotate through New England which may produce a few scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, expect cool days, with highs in the lower to mid 60’s through Sunday. Night time lows will be chilly, with lows 40’s and low 50’s in urban and coastal areas. However, as I mentioned above, temperatures will fall into the 30’s and low 40’s across many suburban and rural areas. This means there’s a chance for frost across some interior towns in Massachusetts such as Groton and Westford. In New Hampshire, Jaffrey and Concord may see their first frost.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my grade for my summer forecast (I did well)! I will also have a preview for the month of October. I also will have my second fall foliage report, and share some additional thoughts about our upcoming winter. In the meantime, enjoy the upcoming fall, our most colorful season of them all!

Thanks for reading!

~Happy Birthday to my niece, Olivia! (Saturday)~

It’s Harvest Time! 9/20/21

Hello, all! I hope everyone was able to enjoy this last weekend of summer! Yes, sadly this was the last official weekend of summer 2021! Saturday started out with some low clouds and fog, but that burned off by early afternoon, leaving us with some sunshine and fairly warm temperatures. Many communities saw a thunderstorm roll through mid evening on Saturday. This was associated with a cold front that finally pushed out all the murky, humid conditions we experienced on Thursday and Friday of last week. Sunday dawned with brilliant sunshine and cool temperatures. The spectacular September weather continued throughout the day on Sunday, with deep royal blue skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures. It was a beautiful late summer’s day to take a walk in the park, go for a hike, a stroll on the beach, or tidy up the garden.

September in New England…it doesn’t get much better than this! In general, September’s climate is very gentle on us here in New England. Gone, is the searing heat of summer, replaced with mainly mild to warm daytime temperatures, and cool to chilly nights. Oh, there are exceptions. Some years, September can still bring summertime heat, with late season heat waves  persisting into mid month. But this is the exception, not the rule. Other years, such as last year, the feel of fall can arrive early, with chilly overnight lows, even with a touch of frost! This too is the exception, not the rule. It is a transition month from summer to autumn. On average, September features our best weather here in New England.

Speaking of fall, we are now only two days from the autumnal equinox! Fall officially arrives on Wednesday, September 22nd at 3:20 PM. What does this all mean? Well, for one, our days and nights is of equal time on this day, with 12 hours of day, and 12 hours of night. From this point forward, we will continue to lose daylight quite rapidly until about Halloween. From there, we will still continue to lose daylight, but not at such a rapid clip during November. It will slow down further until we reach the winter solstice on December 21st. At that point, our daylight will then begin to increase once again!

As the nights lengthen, cool air begins to pool to our north in Canada. This cool air begins to slowly sink down into New England as we get deeper into autumn. Even last evening, many communities dropped into the upper 40’s away from urban areas. This is not uncommon as we enter the last 10 days of September.

Now that fall is here, it’s time to start talking about first frosts, and fall foliage!

While we are still weeks away from frost here in the city, it’s a different story across northern New England, and even some parts of southern New England. Last year at this time, frost & freeze warnings were already flying in many parts of New England away from the coast. This was well ahead of schedule for sure. While frost happens this time of year, it’s typically found across higher elevations of northern New England, and also low lying areas away from the coast. It can even happen in southern New England across low lying regions away from the coast, but not every year. For instance, we have had no September frost in Massachusetts so far this year.

On average, frost season begins in earnest on October 1st. Boston’s suburbs typically see their first frost around October 5th. This transitions into the city by October 20th on average. Due to its proximity to the ocean, Logan Airport’s first official freeze does not occur until November 7th on average. Of course, some years it has occurred as early as October 10th, and other years as late as December 6th! it’s highly variable, and changes year to year.

In my winter research, I have found the severity of the winter has ties into the date of the first freeze. First freeze is when the temperature reaches 32 degrees or lower for at least 3 consecutive hours. The closer to the average date the freeze occurs, the more snow is likely to occur that winter. For example, Boston received a freeze on October 18th back in 2015. That winter turned out to be mild, with below average snowfall. Late freezes are also not a good sign for a cold & snowy winter. Back in 2006, Boston’s first freeze waited until December 6th! This too turned out to be a very warm winter, with below average snow.

Last year was a strange year. Boston’s first freeze arrived on October 30th during the seasons first snowstorm! Temperatures plummeted into the 20’s with the early season snowfall. Overall, Boston received below average snow last winter, but did receive a few good snowstorms. Remember, the climate can be very different between coastal and interior locations here in New England. Last winter saw several heavy snowstorms across the interior with above average snow…much less snow fell along the coast due to rain mixing in.

What will this year bring? Even though we are still in a “warm” weather pattern, there is a chance of early season cold weather sometime in the first two weeks of October. It may warm again later in October, only to turn colder in November. This could set us up for an early start to winter this year. In an era of warmer than normal ocean temperatures, this is hard feat to accomplish here in eastern New England. I will be discussing this in more detail as we head into October!

Now that fall is upon us, it’s time to start talking about fall foliage! Fall foliage is highly dependent upon the weather. While weather plays an important role, there are many other factors which contribute into how bright the fall colors will be in any given season, and when they begin to change. No matter how much we try and predict it, Mother Nature always has the final say! I remember a few years ago, our foliage was non existent, only to turn all at once at the last second with a burst of brilliant color in early November! This is why it’s so hard to predict!

In general, our best foliage seasons occur when we experience near normal temperatures in the summer and fall, and near average precipitation. Too much of any either of these factors can alter the colors, and timing of peak color. Last year, severe drought and early frosts changed the leaves extremely early in northern New England. Some locations were experiencing peak colors even before the actual start of autumn!

This year, it’s been anything but normal! We have experienced extreme summer patterns this year! Southern New England has seen a combination of the second wettest summer on record, and hottest summer in many locations including, Boston! We shall see how this all pans out. Typically, too much rain means muted colors, with fungus growing on the leaves, turning the leaves brown. However, I have been inspecting the leaves, and so far, they look pretty healthy to me. When we have black tar disease, leaves turn black, dry up and fall. We had this two years ago, with no foliage season in Boston. I do not see this happening this year.

It’s possible the trees needed the heavy rain from this summer to catch up from the deficits from past several summers. So far, leaves are still mostly green around the Boston area. I have noticed a few patches of color here and there. Everything is looking good so far. We need some cooler nights. which we have see recently, to start reminding the trees it’s time to start closing down for the season. Peak colors in Boston used to occur the week leading up to Halloween. However, this all changed with the warmer climate we have been experiencing over the past 15 to 20 years. Peak has been arriving later and later in the city, not arriving until the first two weeks of November past several years.

While leaves can change quickly up north and higher terrain, the process is much slower along the coast. The mix of marine air modifies the climate, allowing the leaves to remain on the trees longer. This means coastal areas actually experience a longer foliage season! The season can run from the end of September to the first week or two of November! Leaves can change color and remain on the trees longer, especially if there are no severe wind and rainstorms.

For this year, I’m expecting a long, drawn out season for many in New England, especially near the coast. It would be ideal if we received some chilly nights, but not too cold, by the end of September and start of October. If this occurs, I believe we will see some beautiful colors this fall, with vivid reds & yellows, that will linger into early November. If temperatures remain too warm, then the leaves will not turn properly, and just fall off the trees in November. My first fall foliage report will be posted next week!

Now for your new outdoor hiking and camping forecast. Overall, I’m expecting a very nice week of weather. The only day I can see when you’ll have to take shelter would be on Friday of this week. The weather should be comfortably cool and dry through Thursday, then again next weekend. There may be some showers across western areas later Thursday, so be aware of that. Boating looks good through Wednesday, then again next weekend. Expect some early morning low clouds and fog nearly each day through Wednesday, then rain Thursday night and Friday. It may be too cool for the beach now, but for those hearty souls, today through Wednesday look very September like!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect sunny skies, seasonable temperatures and light winds for the remainder of the afternoon. In other words…it looks spectacular! High temperatures should reach the upper 60’s and low very low 70’s. It will be a great evening to grab a light jacket and take a view of the full “Harvest Moon” rising in the eastern sky this evening! Native American Indians named it this due to the extra light the moon would cast onto the farmlands as farmers collected the remaining harvest of the season before the frosts arrived.

Tuesday may start off with some areas of fog, but expect this to burn off, yielding to a mostly sunny and mild day. As winds turn more southerly, it may be a touch warmer, with highs reaching the mid 70’s across inland areas, and upper 60’s along the coast. Tomorrow night should feature dry weather, but low clouds and fog will be more prevalent. It will be cool, with lows mainly in the 50’s.

Expect a bit more humidity on Wednesday and Thursday. Happy first day of fall on Wednesday, September 22nd! It may take longer for low clouds and fog to burn off, but it should by afternoon. I can’t rule out a few passing showers, but in general, it should be dry. High temperatures should remain in the 70’s for the most part.

A slow moving cold front will be approaching the region Thursday night and Friday. At some point, a band of rain and possibly some thunderstorms will be crossing the region later Thursday night and into Friday and Friday night. There are some indications the front may be slow to clear the coast even into Saturday morning. Therefore, there may be some lingering showers across eastern Massachusetts and the Cape through midday Saturday. Otherwise, expect clearing skies, and cooler weather for the balance of Saturday and into Sunday. Another disturbance may trigger some scattered showers on Sunday, but a washout is not anticipated at this time.

Well, that’s about it for now, my friends! Next week, I will be returning to my weekly posts, unless otherwise noted. There may be some exceptions to this during fall, but I’m going to plan as I go, depending upon my schedule. In next week’s blog, I will be talking about our fall timetable. I will also review the month of September, and preview what to expect in October this year. I will also have my first fall foliage report! In the meantime, it’s time to collect the remaining harvest…fall is upon us!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy Birthday to my nephew, Nicholas! (Saturday)

Don’t Despair…Summer is Still Here! 9/6/21

Hello! Happy Labor Day, to all! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! The weather this past weekend was yet another 50/50 proposition. Saturday was easily a top 10 day across much of New England. With 100% of the possible sunshine, deep blue skies, light winds, low humidity and near perfect temperatures, you’d be hard pressed to find a nicer day anywhere on earth! It was a great day for enjoying anything, outdoors. Unfortunately, a warm front struggled to pass through the region on Sunday. This brought a lot of clouds, higher humidity, and even a few showers to some communities. Lucky for many, Labor Day itself is looking very pleasant, with a good amount of sunshine, and warm temperatures. After the Memorial Day & Fourth of July washouts, I would say this is more than acceptable!

Well, it’s that time of the year again, when the majority of folks believe summer is over. This is a relative concept. While Labor Day signals the unofficial end of summer, the astronomical end of summer does not arrive until September 22nd, when the autumnal equinox arrives. It’s true, we are losing daylight quicker than any other month, and the temperatures do begin to cool off. But I’m here to proclaim September could be the best month of the year weather wise, here in New England! Yes, September is the peak of hurricane season, but more times than not, New England experiences it’s best weather of the year during this month. While summertime heat typically is behind us, we are left with pleasantly warm days, and cool, crisp nights.

It can still get hot. Boston typically averages one ninety degree day in September. This means we can go several years without a ninety degree reading, then get a bunch all at once. I recall a few years ago an unprecedented heat wave in the middle of September here in Boston, when the city recorded 5 straight days of 90 degree heat! In a warming climate, it would not shock me to see 90 degree weather become more common in September around here. In fact, looking at some of the long range data, Boston could still see one or two more 90 degree days this September.

Last year, cool weather arrived early, abruptly ending summer in September. It was the coolest September in approximately 10 years. It wasn’t cold, but there were many brisk days, and it certainly felt like an early fall. However, things reversed in October, and it actually turned warm again. If you recall, October ended on a frigid note, with a historic pre-Halloween snowstorm in Boston, which was the largest on record! Fun fact, it was colder and more wintry on Halloween last year than it was on Christmas Day!

While November began on the cold side, an incredible two week stretch of Indian Summer weather with sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the 70’s is just what the doctor ordered for many before winter settled in.

For this year, I see some changes. For one, I do not see an abrupt end to summer. Rather a very slow step down to fall like weather, which may not truly arrive until the last 10 days of October. After a very brief chill, warmer than normal temperatures are overwhelming the country, and will be slowly pushing east, arriving to New England for the second half of September. How warm are we talking? Well, instead of high temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s, we may see highs in the 70’s and 80’s. As is almost always the case, there still may be brief cool snaps, just to remind us that winter is around the corner. Once beyond October, things begin to look murky. Early high latitude blocking may want to start winter earlier this year, perhaps by Thanksgiving? We shall see. I will look into this possibility the deeper we go into fall.

Overall, I’m expecting a warmer than average September. Typically, September high temperatures start of in the upper 70’s at the beginning of the month, then cool to the upper 60’s by months end. Nighttime lows start in the upper 50’s, and cool to the upper 40’s by months end. September is typically the driest month of the year in Boston, with about 3 1/2″ of rain on average. For this year, I’m expecting September to feature warmer than normal weather. As for precipitation, this is a bit tricky. With Ida blowing through last week, we have already received above average precipitation for the entire month! I’m expecting near average precipitation for the balance of the month. When you add Ida and the remaining rain we receive, it will turn into another very wet month for the record books in Boston.

How did August turn out this year? August continued the theme of extreme weather patterns this summer. While June was the hottest on record, July was one of the rainiest and cloudiest, August was a combination of both, featuring wet and very hot weather at the same time! Boston recorded 9 days of 90 degree temperatures in August, bringing the total up to a whopping 24 days this summer where temperature reached or exceeded 90 in Boston. In fact, when you add up all the departures from June 1st to August 31st, which they call meteorological summer, this summer stands as the hottest summer on record in Boston! Incredible!

Now for your tropical update. Wow, did Boston dodge a bullet with Ida! What a destructive storm, indeed! There are now close to 70 deaths attributed to this storm, with still many more unaccounted for. So tragic! Many of these deaths were linked to the catastrophic flooding not where the hurricane came ashore in Louisiana, but close by to us in New York City and New Jersey! While Boston escaped the flooding rains, the city still reported 4″ of rain. This pales in comparison to the 8 to 12″ of rain which fell as close by as Rhode Island, Connecticut and of course in New York and New Jersey. Let’s also not forget the fierce EF 3 tornado which ripped through southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. This tornado was a direct result of Hurricane Ida.

As in so many cases, when so much destruction occurs in many parts of the east coast, Boston seems to be in a protected bubble of sorts. While we had heavy rain, it could of been so much worse! After such a wet summer, the ground could not hold that much more water. Yes, some folks received water in their basement, but all in all, the severe flooding that was predicted, did not reach its full potential here in Boston. Which is just fine for all!

At this moment, Hurricane Larry is churning in the open Atlantic Ocean, as a category 3 storm. Larry is expected to curve towards the north and northeast, passing east of Bermuda, and well east of New England on Friday. Nevertheless, the ground swells emanating from Larry, will come crashing into east facing New England beaches this Friday and Saturday. If you’re heading to the beach, be on the look out for some big waves and dangerous rip currents.

We are rapidly approaching the peak for hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean, which is typically around September 10th. Conditions in the Atlantic continue to look favorable for more storms to develop and threaten the east coast. High pressure to our north, and low pressure to the south is always a warning sign to watch out for. We also have a second year La Nina emerging, which will limit upper level winds from shearing storms from developing. Add warmer than normal ocean temperatures, and we still should be on guard for more tropical cyclone developing. If no hurricanes have impressed you so far this year, fear not, Peter is on the list this year! Interestingly enough, my late father Nicholas, and late mom Rose are also on the list!

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to make a quick comment on our upcoming fall foliage season. It’s still preliminary, but we are now in the window when the leaves are going to begin to change color! Last years foliage season was variable. Leaves changed extremely early in northern New England, bringing with it some of the brightest colors in years. As is typical in drought years, the color was quick and intense, but mostly faded by Columbus Day weekend! Coastal areas did not fare as well, as many trees remained green right up until the Halloween snowstorm & freeze. From there, many leaves just turned brown, and dropped the second week of November. There was some good color, but it was patchy for sure.

I’m expecting a similar season this year. Northern New England did not see near as much rain as southern New England. However, I believe they received enough to keep leaves healthy enough for a strong season. So far, it hasn’t been as chilly as last year. Many saw frosts and freezes in late August last year, which set off the foliage quickly. There needs to be a light frost in the next couple weeks to begin the process up north.

Here in southern New England, I’m afraid foliage season is going to be another rough one. Too much rain this summer, and warm temperatures are going to prevent trees from changing colors on time. We may not see peak here in Boston until the second week of November, when it typically is the last week of October. Nevertheless, there is always beauty in the eyes of the beholder. There will be areas of brilliant color as always. Mother Nature always has the last say on how things turn out. There are always some surprises. Beginning in two weeks, I will be posting my fall foliage updates from across the region!

Now for your beach, boating and camping outlook. Expect fairly pleasant weather this week for all three outdoor activities. There may be a brief shower this evening, then a more consolidated line of showers and thunderstorms moving through Wednesday night and early Thursday. Otherwise, I’m expecting generally fair and mild weather this week, with mild to warm days, and cool nights. Best beach days appear to be today, tomorrow, Friday and Saturday. Sunday could be good as well, though there may be a few more clouds. I do not see any high winds this week for you boaters, though there could be some scattered storms this evening, then again Wednesday night early Thursday. There’s always the chance of gusty winds near any storms. Also, be aware of those ground swells rolling in from Hurricane Larry! Camping weather looks good this week. Just be prepared for showers Wednesday night. Otherwise expect mild days, and cool nights. Perfect for camping!

Here’s your latest weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I’m giving this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect mainly sunny and warm weather this afternoon, with highs near 80. It will still feel a bit on the muggy side. A late day cool front will be approaching the region, which may bring a scattered shower or thunderstorm to some communities.

After this front clears the coast this evening, look for cooler and drier weather to flow into New England! Skies will clear overnight, and temperatures will fall into the 50’s by dawn.

Tuesday will feature brilliant blue skies, perhaps a carbon copy of last Saturday? Expect near 100% of the possible sunshine, and high temperatures mainly in the 70’s to near 80. Tuesday night should feature no weather problems, with fair skies and light winds.

Wednesday may start off with some sun, but clouds will tend to increase during the day. A cold front will be approaching from the west, and along that front there will be the chance fora line of showers and thunderstorms moving through. In general, expect a quarter to half inch of rain to water the lawns and gardens.

This activity should move off the coast Thursday morning, leaving clearing skies and sunshine for the rest of the day, along with pleasant temperatures. Expect similar weather to continue for your Friday and all day Saturday, with sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, with daytime highs in the 70’s and nighttime lows in the 50’s. Perfect September weather!

A very weak front will be passing through on Sunday. I would not cancel any outdoor plans at this point. I can only see a brief light shower at some point during the day. If anything, it may just bring more clouds than the weather on Saturday. We shall see, it still could turn out to be a stellar day with plenty of sun.

Well, that’s about it for today my friends! It’s almost time for me to resume weekly weather blogs. Let’s say beginning on the week of the autumnal equinox. This is still subject to change, but I will keep you updated. In my next post, slated for September 20th, I will be talking about my fall forecast, and fall timetable such as first frosts and what we typically experience in autumn here in New England. I will also have my first fall foliage and camping forecast! Yes, things are moving quickly! In the meantime, no need to despair just yet, I will inform everyone when it’s time to hit the panic button! Enjoy the beautiful weather!

Happy Anniversary to my sister Pam & her husband, Michael!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Henri (mostly) Spares New England…8/23/21

Hello, friends! I hope everyone is enjoying their, summer! Well, it looks like New England dodged yet another catastrophe! Hurricane Henri (pronounced on-ree) had plans on being the first land falling hurricane to strike New England since Hurricane did Bob back in 1991. As it turned out, Mother Nature had a different idea, and the hurricane drought lives on another day here in New England.

Overall, it was a 50/50 weekend around here weather wise. Saturday was tropical, with billowy cumulus clouds, along with deep blue Caribbean skies. With the warm temperatures, it turned into a pretty nice beach day. While Sunday was not a beach day, you would be surprised to know there was a hurricane watch up for much of Cape Cad just 24 hours prior.

After a couple feeder bands swung through the eastern part of Massachusetts, the rest of the day was just cloudy with a slight breeze at times. In fact, some places even saw the sun come out during the afternoon! This left many folks wondering, what happened with Henri?

The short answer to this question is nothing happened with Henri! Henri arrived, perhaps not exactly how many envisioned. True, the winds were not as strong as we anticipated in our area, and not as much rain fell, but it was never supposed to be a hurricane in Boston. To their credit, National Weather Service out of Norton, never issued a tropical storm watch or warning for the Boston area during the entire event. I say this with every storm I forecast, there are always are going to be some surprises!

We have no control at what these storms do or do not do. Though you can make an argument that some people do think they can control the weather! I have mentioned this before, but there’s just too much build up to these storms. They never have a chance to perform to their expectations. Between social media platforms, chat rooms, the latest & greatest computer models, news media outlets and general technology today, we smother these storms to death, even before they develop!

Perhaps you may not of known, but weather is big business! News media hype theses storms up to attract viewers, which in turn generates more viewers, and ultimately more revenue. I’m not particularly targeting any outlet. Personally, I believe the stations in Boston do a solid job with storm coverage. Maybe a little too much at times, but that’s the nature of the business. The meteorologists are always placed in a very difficult position as to not wanting to over hype the storm, and not sounding urgent enough to prepare folks as to what to expect.

I grew up and still live in Boston, and I still enjoy watching storm coverage, especially when there’s a big one! There’s a fine line of telling it how it is, and embellishing a story. For the most part, I feel Boston news media tells it how it is, in regards to storm coverage.

Forecasting tropical storms is as tricky as it gets! Though computer models have advanced considerably over the years, there is still a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to forecasting the track and intensity of these storms. As fast as they’re inputting data into computer models, the atmosphere is already changing the equation!

At one point, Henry’s track was to bring it straight north towards Buzzards Bay, then towards Boston. This would of been a much bigger deal on the Cape if this track were to verify. Fortunately for us, later computer model runs trended further west. At one point it was over Long Island, before settling on southwest corner of Rhode Island.

With Henri, there were certain factors that made this very concerning for us here in New England. First, computer models were forecasting Henri to strengthen into at least a category 1 hurricane about 500 miles south of New England. The fear was that Henri was passing over the very warm Gulf Stream waters, and was expected to intensify further. Just looking at past history, there have been hundreds of tropical systems that pass over the Gulf Stream that have rapidly intensified, from a category one to a three just within 24 hours!

Fortunately for us, Henri barely achieved hurricane status (74 mph winds) Saturday night. By the time it made it up to the waters south of New England, Henri quickly began to weaken to tropical storm status. Nonetheless, Henri officially made landfall as a tropical storm at 12:15 PM in Westerly, Rhode Island. Oddly enough, tropical storm Elsa made landfall in the exact same location back in July, at 12:15 PM!

While we just had some breezy conditions here in Boston, Cape Cod experienced winds of between 40 and 50 mph. As you moved west towards Rhode Island, winds increased to between 50 and 60 mph. At the height of the storm, winds were clocked between 60 and 70 mph close to the center of landfall. This location received the most damage, with trees and power lines down. Another surprise was the flooding that developed across the Hudson River Valley, New Jersey and down into New York City. My niece Alex messaged us saying there was some serious flooding going on in the subway system in New York. Some locations received up to 10″ of rain!

I have mentioned it before, but I will mention it again. We are on borrowed time here in New England. The last land falling hurricane to strike the region was Hurricane Bob, way back in 1991. Before then, there was a dying and weakening Hurricane Gloria back in 1985. Bob made landfall in Newport Rhode Island as a category 2 hurricane, then cut across southeastern Massachusetts, exiting off the coast in Scituate, Ma. While I just remember it being a wet & windy day here in Boston, the Cape was hit hard in that storm, with winds up to 125 mph, and a 10 foot storm surge!

Back in 1985, Hurricane Gloria suddenly intensified to category 4 hurricane off the mid Atlantic coast. This set off mass panic in the New England region as the storm was tracking basically due north. By the time it was crashed into Long Island, Gloria was rapidly disintegrating, and falling apart.

Nonetheless, it arrived as a category one hurricane, tracking up through western Massachusetts, before bending northeast into Canada. I remember standing on my front porch with my sister Valerie, who was home from college that weekend, watching the fierce hurricane force wind gusts. After the storm we took a walk around the neighborhood and were surprised by how many trees and branches had fallen.  This was my last recollection of a true tropical type of system here in the Boston area that resulted in significant tree damage.

We have to go way back to 1960 when Hurricane Donna took a classic track up the east coast, passing just west of Boston. By reading historic accounts, this was a very dangerous storm, that brought significant tree damage and flooding to the eastern Massachusetts.

It’s not a matter of if, but when the next major hurricane is going to strike the region. With the population and real estate built up so much greater than 60 years ago, there is going to be a huge price to pay with damage and casualties. Just because Henri did not live u to some expectations, this is the second tropical storm of the season to track towards New England and have some impacts on our region. We are only now heading into peak hurricane season, which reaches its maximum on September 10th, but continues through September, even into the start of October some years. There is still plenty of time for another storm or two to threaten our region. The fact we have already had two tropical storms this summer is quite concerning to me. This could be a primer for a bigger storm to track up the coast into New England. If something does develop, I will be sure to inform everyone if a storm threatens!

Just a quick note about the weather patterns for the rest of August and into September. If you enjoy warm temperatures, and an extended summer, I have some good news for you! From what I can see, it does not appear as if summer will be in any hurry to retreat this year. We are currently at 20 ninety degree days in Boston this summer. We could receive another two this week. The all time record is 30 days back in 1983. If we can get up to 24 before the end of August, it’s not out of the question Boston could make a run at the record. Admittedly, it’s a long shot, We would have to have a very hot September. I remember a few years back Boston had a five day heat wave in the middle of September…so it’s not out of the question! The bottom line, I’m expecting summery weather to stick around this year at least up to the autumnal equinox which arrives on September 22nd. Enjoy!

Time for your beach, boating and camping forecast. Best beach days this week appear to be today, tomorrow, Wednesday, most of Thursday, Friday and most of the upcoming weekend! Looks pretty good overall. Best chance of showers is late tonight, then again later on Thursday or Thursday night. Friday may start damp, but should turn into a nice day. This weekend looks mainly dry, but a bit cooler, with lower levels of humidity. Best boating days look to be tomorrow and Wednesday, then again Friday and most if not all of the upcoming weekend! Campers should be on alert for overnight showers tonight, muggy and hot weather Tuesday through Thursday, then more showers later Thursday, followed by cooler and drier weather for the upcoming weekend. A taste of September, perhaps?

Now for your weekly outdoor weekly summer activity forecast. I am rating this week an 8 out of 10. Expect warm and muggy weather for the rest of today. There are some isolated thunderstorms in the area, mainly across the interior this afternoon. There have even been a few isolated weak tornadoes observed. This is due to the unstable air mass from the remnants of Henri.

Speaking of Henri, the remnants still have to track through Massachusetts overnight. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to track across the state from between 8 PM to 2 AM. Some of these storms could contain strong winds, vivid lightning, and torrential downpours.

This activity will clear the coast before morning. Thereafter, expect a very warm to hot Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. It will also be on the muggy side, but we’re all used to that by now!

Watch for hot and humid weather to be the theme both Wednesday and Thursday this week. High temperatures will reach the lower 90’s each day, with high levels of humidity, making it feel even hotter than that! Later Thursday, there will be a cold front approaching. Be on the lookout for late afternoon thunderstorm and evening thunderstorms.

Right now, I’m going with this front clearing the coast, setting us up for a cooler and drier air mass to sweep into New England for the period Friday through the weekend. Highs will be in the 70’s, and lows in the 50’s. Time to open the windows up and let the fresh air in!

Well, that’s about it for today! My next blog will be posted on September 6th, unless otherwise noted, or severe weather threatens. In that post, I will have my review for August, as well as preview September. I will also have a new tropical outlook, as well as a quick preview of autumn! In the meantime, soak up all the summer you can now, the countdown to autumn is on!

Happy Birthday to my niece Alex! (August 28th)

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Pendulum Swings >>> Summer! 8/9/21

Hello! I hope everyone is doing, well! While difficult to stay away from the blog, I’m happy to report the break is doing me good! Last we spoke back on July 26th, we talked about this summers quirky weather patterns. Since then, there has been no shortage of “quirkiness” in our weather patterns. From flooding rains, to fall like temperatures, punctuated with temperatures in the 90’s, we have just about seen it all this summer!

This past weekend featured hot & muggy weather returning Saturday, as temperatures soared up into the low 90’s in the Boston area. As has been the case most of this summer, this came with a clause along with it. Yes, it was hot, but that darn haze in the sky made it seemed overcast. Sunday was cooler, but still featured mostly cloudy skies. We just can’t seem to be able to string a few nice days in a row this summer, with genuine blue skies.

I was chatting with my brother John the other day about the summer pattern, and he hit the nail on the head saying,  “we were due for a dud summer!” It’s a bit more complicated than that, but he’s right! Many people forget just how glorious of a stretch we’ve had the past 3 or 4 summers, with nearly perfect beach weather for days on end, week after week, month after month! It hardly ever rained past few summers, and temperatures were warm to hot nearly every day. As an added bonus, several of those summers featured “endless summers” where summers extended deep into September, in some cases even October!

It’s a tale of two climate extremes. While the west is burning with wildfires, the eastern part of the country, including us here in New England, is water logged, with too much rain. To add insult, prevailing jet stream winds have been blowing plumes of smoke across the country, turning our atmosphere into something which you might see if you were on Mars! Smoky skies have led to hazy conditions during the day, and the sun appearing as a red fireball at sunset. Occasionally, winds have actually brought the smoke down to ground level, with many people reporting actually smelling the smoke in the air!

These plumes of smoke are coming all the way from California, and Alberta Canada. My weather friend Remy is currently residing in California, and is posting some astonishing pictures of the wildfire called “Dixie” which is now the second largest wildfire in state history! From wildfires to flooding rains, this summer has seen its share of extremes. But…could it actually turn even more extreme?

The short answer to this question is …yes! There is no signs of the wildfire season diminishing anytime soon in the west. In fact, as we go deeper into late summer, early fall, developing Santa Ana winds typically intensify in California, with near hurricane force winds gusts blowing through mountain canyons towards the coastal plain. These are very dry winds, blowing offshore from the mountains to the seacoast. Unless a major pattern change occurs in the next few weeks, you can expect to hear catastrophic news coming out of California. A developing second year La Nina typically means dry weather patterns for most of California.

Here in the east, as if we haven’t had enough this summer, we are now entering the most active period of hurricane season, which peaks around September 10th. It begins ramping up on August 10th, peaks on September 10th, and begins to diminish on October 10th. So far, it’s been pretty quiet in the Atlantic. However, according to expert tropical meteorologists, things are about to become very active in the Atlantic! I have mentioned it before earlier this season, due to prevailing winds and above average ocean temperatures, New England is vulnerable to be threatened by a tropical storm or hurricane landfall later this summer or early fall.  This would be the icing on the cake for this summer.

Nothing is guaranteed, but I would place our chance at seeing a tropical type storm blow through our area this year at about 60%. The concern is that we haven’t had a bonafide hurricane strike New England since Donna, way back in September of 1960. Yes, there have been several tropical storms that have tracked through our region, some even bringing high winds and some tree damage. As recent as this past July we had tropical storm Elsa blow through, with torrential downpours of rain and gusty winds.

And of course there was “Bob” back in August of 1991. Bob was a category 2 hurricane, as it crossed southeastern Massachusetts, from Narraganset, Rhode Island, passing off the coast of Scituate, Mass. Cape Cod bore the brunt of this storm, as they were on the dangerous right quadrant. Significant damaged occurred, with winds of up to 125 mph, and a very impressive storm surge of between 10 and 15 ft up into Buzzards Bay. Because Boston was on the northwest side of the storm, I just remember it being a windy, rainy day here in Boston. Somewhat like a summer nor’easter.

As we discussed, it’s been a summer of extremes. Boston saw their hottest June on record, capped off with a 100 degree temperature on the last day of the month. The pattern abruptly changed in July, when many recorded their wettest July on record. Boston observed their second wettest month on record, but recorded the most number of rainy days in any July. It was also much cooler in Boston. While we still managed to receive 4 ninety degree days, this was two short of the average. Overall, the month finished nearly 3 degrees below normal, a very rare below average summer month in Boston!

After experiencing the hottest June on record, the wettest July on record, many are wondering what August will bring?? After a shaky start, I believe the pendulum is going to swing the other way, once again. I am seeing signs of a hotter than normal month in Boston. This should come as no surprise, as I was forecasting this to occur from June. A surging second year La Nina is going to overpower any Greenland block, and send the jet stream packing up into Canada for the foreseeable future. This means I am expecting surges of hot weather for the balance of August, and even into September. I am also expecting less rainy weather, so if you thought summer was done, think again!

After Saturday’s 92 degree high temperature, Boston is now up to 16 days of 90 degree temperatures. Normal for the entire season is 14. After a brief cool down today and part of tomorrow, the hot weather is going to surge back into New England starting on Wednesday, and lasting into Friday. If this holds true, it looks like we will be adding another 3 days of ninety degree temperatures. This will bring the total up to 19 days this summer in Boston. My revised forecast made back on the summer solstice increased my number of 90 degree days from 14 – 18,  to 19 – 23. I’m happy it looks like we will reach the bottom threshold of my number.

However, I’m becoming increasingly concerned that it may keep on going. Yes, it will cool off this weekend, but heat & humidity may return again next week, and continue until the end of the month. Then of course we have September. Boston typically averages one 90 degree day in September. But that was using the old averages. I remember growing up as a kid hitting 90 in September was a rare event. Even though we did not hit 90 last September, there have been previous years recently when we not only hit 90, but had legit heat waves, with 5 to 7 ninety degree days.

The most 90 degree days we have on record here in Boston was back in 1983, when Boston received 30 of them. It’s not impossible, that if we receive another 4 or 5 after this week, would bring us up to 23 or 24 days, then have a hot spell in September, that we could challenge that record. If July wasn’t so cool, I believe this record would of been smashed this year! Either way, it looks to be a bookend summer, with hot at the beginning, cool in the middle, and hot again at the end!

Time for your beach, boating and camping forecast. Best beach and boating weather for this week appear to be Wednesday through Friday, then again this Sunday. Wildcard days are tomorrow, and Saturday. While these days may feature some clouds and a shower, it’s dependent on many factors, and could turn into nice days. Best chances for thunderstorms will be the typical summertime afternoon and evening storms, Wednesday through Friday. With the excessive heat & humidity expected, these storms can contain torrential downpours and vivid lightning. If you’re on the beach or boating, keep an eye to the sky. If you see building dark cumulonimbus clouds or hear thunder, seek shelter as soon as possible! Should be decent week for camping, although be prepared for the chance of an afternoon and evening thunderstorm! Otherwise, expect warm temperatures this week. A stronger cold front will push through the region on Saturday, bringing with it more chances of thunderstorms. Sunday should feature nice weather, with sunny skies, and cooler temperatures, but still warm.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect some hazy sun for the balance of your Monday afternoon. A slow moving system off our coast may try to spin in some showers towards evening. Some of these showers may contain localized areas of brief heavy rain. Temperatures will be a bit below average, with highs only in the 70’s.

Expect similar weather tonight. I wouldn’t cancel any plans, just have the umbrella handy, just in case! Skies should be mainly cloudy, with areas of fog and perhaps some drizzle.

Look for similar conditions to continue into Tuesday morning, with cloudy skies and a few scattered showers. As the day progresses, watch for conditions to improve, especially after midday. It should be mainly sunny during the afternoon, with a warm breeze. Tuesday evening should feature pleasant summer weather for outdoor activities.

You can expect heat wave conditions to surge into much eastern Massachusetts for the period Wednesday through Friday. Expect high temperatures to be in the low to mid 90’s each day, with the hottest weather occurring on Thursday, with highs in the mid 90’s. In addition, dew point temperatures will be in the 70’s, which will make it feel very tropical out and downright oppressive! This may lead the National Weather Service to issue excessive heat advisories for much of the Boston metropolitan area, with feel like temperatures between 98 and 105 degrees.

Looking for some relief? Well, if you can’t get to a pool or the beach, Mother Nature will try and help out with some afternoon and evening thunderstorms! If you are lucky enough to receive one, it may offer some temporary relief.

A strong cold front will cross our region on Saturday. Depending upon the time, there may be additional showers and thunderstorms during the day. Timing is difficult to pin down at this point, but it doesn’t look like an all day washout by any means. It will be about 10 degrees cooler off of the heat wave temperatures. This means low to mid 80’s seem reasonable.

After the front clears the coast, Sunday should feature mainly sunny skies and drier conditions, with less humidity. Some models are hinting the front stalls just off the coast, keeping clouds in our region. Right now, I am going with the optimistic model, bringing more sun than clouds on Sunday. Temperatures should be near average, with highs in the lower 80’s.

Well that’s about it for now, friends! My next blog is scheduled for August 23rd., unless otherwise noted. I will let you know if I see any tropical storms that may threaten our region. I will also have a new beach, boating and camping forecast. In addition, I will have a peek into what September may bring! In the meantime, be happy the pendulum is swinging towards summer…when it changes again, we all know what comes next!

Thanks for reading!

Be safe

Pete

Quirky Summer Pattern Continues…7/26/21

Hello! Nice to be back writing again, today! I appreciate everyone’s patience as I continue to need the alternate schedule for the blog. I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Weather wise, it was a 50/50 weekend, around here. Saturday was arguably the best day of the month (maybe the entire summer), with nearly 100% sunshine, warm temperatures, low humidity and light winds. A great day to be relaxing at the beach, going on a hike, or just doing some gardening. These days have been few and far between this July. Sunday, we returned back to old habits. A warm front was traversing the area, which brought lots of clouds, and muggier conditions. There were even a couple rounds of downpours that traversed the region during the course of the day. Certainly not a washout that we’ve seen several times this month, but not the stellar weather we saw on Saturday either.

As the title of the blog says, it’s been a quirky summer around here, to say the least! I wish I could say we are done with the “quirkiness” but that doesn’t seem to be the case, at least for this week! My brother in law Jae just texted me asking if the summer pattern is settling in? No, I do not believe a persistent summer pattern is moving in at this time. In fact, it’s going to feel more like fall later this week into the upcoming weekend. I honestly feel bad for folks who look forward to summertime weather. June is an awfully busy month, and many folks don’t really begin their summer vacations until July. So as summery as it was, most were still wrapping up the school year, work, and spring projects around the home.

As much as I love fall & winter, I can relate with their sentiments. I too love summer, going to the beach, spending time outdoors with family & friends, fishing, hiking and camping. After several of near flawless summer patterns, this year is proving to be much more volatile, to say the least!

After a glorious spring, the transition from spring to summer this year was turbulent this year, as Memorial Day weekend holiday was a complete washout. After the boundary lifted north of New England, searing heat surged into region and persisted right up until the last day of the month. It was so hot, that Boston recorded it’s hottest June in history! Logan Airport recorded an astounding 9 days of 90 degree temperatures, and even 100 degrees on the last day of the month! Add another two in May, and three here in July, and we are already at the average of 14 for the entire season!

The big surprise is occurring here in July. July is typically our hottest month of the year, but it’s actually averaging cooler than June! Boston normally sees six 90 degree days in July, but this year we have only seen 3. If we don’t nick 90 today or tomorrow, there are no more chances for 90 degree heat for the rest of the month. After a record fast start, the 90 degree days have slowed to a trickle. We are running nearly 3 degrees below average this July. This is quite a turn of events since nearly all computer models were forecasting New England to receive well above average temperatures this July.

My official forecast updated on the summer solstice calls for between 19 and 23 ninety degree days in Boston this summer. My original forecast of 14 to 18 was made on May 24th. I’m now wondering just how many more times Boston is going to reach 90. Perhaps my friends and family were correct when they recommended I leave the original forecast?? Interesting to point out, if I had left the forecast as is, it already would of verified, seeing we currently have receive 14 ninety degree days!

Let us not forget the record rainfall many have experienced this month. Worcester has already broken the record for wettest July on record, and Boston is standing at number two, with an outside shot of eclipsing the record before the month ends on Saturday. If Boston does not receive a drop of rain for the rest of the summer, we would still end up having a wetter than normal summer!

I had a nice chat with a weather friend Scott on Twitter last evening. We were discussing the volatility of this summer’s weather patterns, and what could be in store for us the rest of the summer. We completely agreed that the summer has had its high points, but overall, has featured too much rain, at all the wrong times! Scott believes we are pretty much done with the hot weather for the rest of the summer, and it will go into the books as a cooler than average summer!

Indeed, if August continues this cool regime, it may end up being a cooler than average summer…something we have not seen around here since 2009! My thinking is similar, but with a few twists. While on paper it may appear to be a cooler than average summer, the optimal word here is “average.” We have already reached our quota for an a typical summer of 90 degree days. We also experienced the hottest June on record here in Boston. Record keeping can be very misleading. If one were to look back on this summer, they may think it was just a rainy cool summer, especially if just looking at the general averages. If they looked deeper, they may be surprised that we reached the average number of 90 degree days, and also experienced the hottest June on record. To determine whether we see a warmer than normal summer or cooler than normal, the weather in August and September will be the deciding factor in this regard.

I always like to compare the seasons to help people understand where we are at. You wouldn’t say winter is over on January 26th? In fact, Boston’s most severe winter on record of 2014-15 didn’t get fully going until exactly on January 26th! In other words, there is still plenty of summer ahead of us. In my book, we are only about at the mid point of summer. While we may of seen the hottest temperatures of the summer in June, I still believe there will be more surges of warm to hot weather from mid August to mid September this year. In fact, the warm weather may continue into October, as it has the past several years.

It may take its time, but I do believe my updated forecast of 19 to 23 days will eventually be the correct way to go! In the meantime, many folks want to know what the heck is going on?? Well, for one thing, a very unusual pattern featuring the Greenland block,  has strengthened and persisted this July. This has high pressure over Greenland, while forcing the jet stream south of our region. Dr. Judah Cohen just mentioned today that this winter like pattern is difficult to pull off in mid winter, never mind here in July!

What this does is help cold fronts that normally stay up in Canada during this time of the year, to be forced south of New England, allowing cooler air to filter down from southern Canada. While all this is happening, the Bermuda High pressure is flexing its muscles trying to force warm muggy air to push up into New England. Many times this month, the warm air has lifted up over the cool air. With eastern Massachusetts being very close to this boundary, this has resulted in torrential downpours and record rainfall amounts.

This pattern may persist for the first 10 days of August. However, I’m seeing signs that there is another La Nina (cool water in southern Pacific Ocean) is developing. Two things typically occur when this happens. First, you will notice a marked increase in tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, perhaps even here along the east coast. Second, this should be strong enough to kick the trough of low pressure (cool & wet) north of New England, allowing for warm to at times hot weather to make its way back to our region the deeper we go into August and September. This is one reason why I still believe we will reach my forecast for the number of 90 degree days this summer. A very odd summer, indeed!

Now for your beach & boating forecast, as well as a new camping outlook. Expect more rapid changes this week. Expect best beach days this week to be today, tomorrow, then again on Saturday, though maybe a bit too cool for some? There may be other periods, but you’ll have to pick your times around unsettled conditions. Rain showers are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, then again on Thursday into early Friday. Saturday looks nice at this point, only to have showers move back in again on Sunday. Not too confident on that Sunday forecast, there’s still an outside shot it remains dry, as timing could change. I do not see any strong winds or rough seas for boating this week, but unsettled weather conditions with periods of showers and fog means keep an eye on the forecast for best times. If you are planning on doing some camping this week, be prepared for rain at times! Also, a sweep of cooler air arriving from Canada later this week will mean chilly night time temperatures, especially across the interior and north.

Now for you weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect mainly sunny and hot weather for the rest of your Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be approaching 90 in many locations. It will also be on the muggy side, so the heat index will be up there too.

I’m expecting a fine mid summer evening out there, with warm breezes, and fair skies. Watch for the waning “Thunder Moon”, rising from the east. Overnight, it will remain fair, and warm, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Watch for another hot day on Tuesday. If we get enough sun, temperatures may make another run towards 90. An approaching cold front means that there is a chance of a late afternoon and evening thunderstorm. As has been the case this whole month, this front will sluggishly move through the region Tuesday night. This means there is the potential for more showers and thunderstorms overnight, into Wednesday morning.

After a damp start, watch for much cooler & drier air to filter into the region during Wednesday. I’m not expecting too much additional rainfall on Wednesday, more than it will feel more September like than anything else. Expect highs to struggle into the 70’s, with mainly cloudy skies, though some sunny breaks can not be ruled out.

Watch for continued cooler than normal weather to be the theme through the rest of the week into this upcoming weekend. A storm system tracking northwest of New England will drag a warm front through our region later Thursday and into Thursday night. Expect unsettled weather to return with the chance of rain. The cold front should sink south of the region early Friday. leading to a drier day, with some breaks of sun by afternoon. It will remain on the cool side, with highs in the 70’s.

Right now, this weekend is looking to be similar to this past weekend. Expect the better of the two weekend days to be Saturday, with plenty of sun, and slightly warmer temperatures. It may be too cool for the beach for some, but the weather is looking very nice for many outdoor activities. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70’s.

Expect another system to approach New England on Sunday. Timing will be critical, but at the very least expect more cloudiness to overspread the region, and depending on the speed of the system, there may be showers developing across the region during the afternoon. Latest guidance shows it moving in a bit slower, holding the rain off until Sunday night and early Monday, but no guarantee for that scenario playing out, either. In any event, it does not look as nice as Saturday does.

Well, that’s about it for this week, friends! My next blog will be written on August 9th! In this post, I will review our final numbers for July, and let you know how I think August will be for us this year. I will also have a new beach, boating and camping forecast, as well as take a quick look to see if anything is cooking in the tropics. In the meantime, for those who love summer weather, please slowly step back from the cliff! As a reminder, below average temperatures this time of the year is still warm!

Be safe, everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete