Enough Already! 7/12/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their 4th of July holiday last weekend! As expected, the weather was not ideal for many outdoor activities…especially Friday and Saturday, when it was an all out washout around here. There was slight improvement on Sunday and Monday, but showers arrived again just in time for the fireworks display on Boston Common Saturday evening. And it wasn’t just the rain. Record cold high temperatures took the luster away from folks celebrating this national celebration. To put it bluntly…it was brutal.

In fact, most people would agree the weather this entire month up to this point has been brutal. And in fact, every  day has featured at least some rainfall in Boston, with many days featuring torrential downpours. We even had a tropical storm named Elsa blow through the region last Friday. If that wasn’t enough, torrential downpours greeted commuters heading back into work this morning. To nobody’s surprise, this now stands as the 3rd wettest July on record in Boston. The wettest July on record was set 100 years ago back in 1921, when the city measured 11.69″ of rain. So far this July we have received 8.89″. With nearly two thirds of a month left, it’s not out of the question we could break this record, becoming the wettest July in recorded history.

The weather this past weekend was consistent with what we’ve been experiencing. Cloudy and rather cool on Saturday, leading to a cloudy and rather muggy day on Sunday. Showers held off until Sunday night, but it was no beach weekend by any stretch of the imagination. This has led many family and friends expressing their dissatisfaction to me with our current summer pattern! Too bad the weather patterns could not of been reversed, with June being the wettest, and July the hottest! Many folks plan for vacations starting in July, and count on decent summer weather.

I was expecting a summer featuring some extreme swings, but had not envisioned experiencing the hottest June on record, followed by the wettest July on record! I was speaking with my brother in law Jae last evening, and mentioned to him that things could still yet reverse again in August. He lives for summer weather, and has been very disappointed with the weather patterns so far here in July.

So where do we go from here? Are we doomed for a wet and cold summer? I don’t believe so. Certainly we are not experiencing a summer like we had the past two years. I was speaking with my sister Pam today and mentioned to her that those summers were unrealistic for us here in New England. For nearly three straight summers, we experienced I would say a near record amount of beach days.

Does this mean we should be punished with a cold, wet summer? No, I don’t believe Mother Nature works that way. However, I was not anticipating a dry, hot summer, with endless beach days. My summer forecast called for more precipitation than previous years, with rapid changes in temperatures. Though it has been on the extreme side, I would say it’s working out fairly well so far.

I called for a hotter than normal summer too. June set us off on fire, with all time record hot temperatures for the month. Boston recorded nine 90 degree days in June alone. Add the two from May, and another two at the start of July, and we stand at 13 for the season so far. My call at the summer solstice was for between 19 and 23. No doubt, we’ve slowed way down in racking up the 90 degree days. They’re not coming fast and furious as they did earlier. It’s entirely possible June was the hottest month of the summer, against the averages.

I’m very surprised how the cool air has suppressed the heat dome here in July. So far, Boston is experiencing slightly below average temperatures for this month. This is a huge surprise to the folks at NOAA who were calling for well above average temperatures for July here in New England. As I mentioned above, we still have nearly two thirds of the month to go, so it will be interesting to see if the cool air can hold on to keep it below average…a very tough feat to accomplish in a warming climate, and the hottest month of the year. We may sneak one 90 degree day later this week, then a more pleasant air mass could settle into New England come next week, with a good chance of a much drier pattern.

Thereafter, it’s anyone’s guess! August could indeed turn around once again and feature hotter than normal pattern returning. I always say July is the wildcard month as to how the summer is going to go, but this year I believe August is going to determine just hot this summer is going to end up being. While not as hot as June, I can still see us experiencing 7 to 10 more ninety degree days this summer. The pace has slowed, but I believe we’ll keep adding on to the current number in August and even into September. We do have a second year La Nina developing (cooler than normal water off South American coast). Typically, our summers here in New England tend to become hotter the deeper we head into August and even September in second year La Nina’s. A lot depends on how rainy the pattern is. If this pattern persists into August, the entire summer forecast will be in jeopardy!

I was chatting with my weather friends William & Brett from Denver the other night on Twitter, and I mentioned to him that I believe there may be a higher than normal risk of a hurricane striking New England later this summer or early fall. Sometimes, the atmosphere will send a warning shot as a precursor as to what may be coming later. Tropical storm Elsa was the first tropical storm to make landfall in New England in I believe 15 years. It’s possible, the atmosphere is priming our region for a larger tropical cyclone, or hurricane to strike later this summer. The last hurricane to make landfall here in New England was Hurricane Bob back in August of 1991. Nothing is set in stone, but believe me when I tell you, New England is way overdue for a hurricane strike.

How about that beach and boating forecast? Obviously no beach day today, and tomorrow will not be anything to write home about either. However, I do have some hope for the period Wednesday through Saturday this week. While not completely dry, it will become warm to perhaps even hot for a day or two. At this point, I am only seeing some typical late afternoon and evening thunderstorms, where not everyone will be hit. Unfortunately, a cold front looks to stall later Saturday, leading to perhaps yet another wash out for Sunday. If you plan on doing some boating, I do not see winds being a huge factor this week, just keep an eye to the sky for building dark cumulus clouds each afternoon, with thunderstorms rolling through.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. Not great, but a bit of an improvement to where we’ve been! We all know Monday was a washout! Moving on to Tuesday, expect similar weather as we’ve been experiencing. Mainly cloudy skies with cool east winds. With winds coming in off of the ocean, there is the chance of some patch drizzle and fog along east facing coastal communities. It will be cooler than normal for this time of the year, with highs only near 70, when we should be in the lower 80’s. Expect similar weather to continue for Tuesday night, with areas of dense fog along the coast and the Cape.

I’m expecting improving weather conditions for the period Wednesday through Saturday. While not perfect, it will be warming up to close to or even a bit above normal during this period. Wednesday may still feature some murky conditions, with low clouds and fog lingering. As we move deeper into the day, these conditions may burn off, allowing for some sunshine and warmer temperatures during the afternoon and evening. There still is a risk for a late afternoon thunderstorm.

Watch for even warmer weather to even a touch on the hot side for the period Thursday through Saturday. You will also notice a marked increase in the humidity, with dew points rising up into the low to mid 70’s. Yuck! Couple this with temperatures close to 90, and it will feel every bit like July out there! With so much moisture in the air, and weak disturbances, it won’t take much to trigger some late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With weak steering currents, any thunderstorm in localized communities can feature slow moving gully washers.

Later on Saturday, a stronger cold front will be approaching the area. Much like we’ve been seeing the whole month, this front looks like it wants to stall just off our coast on Sunday. If this indeed happens, we can expect numerous showers and even steady rain on Sunday, leading to a end of the weekend washout. I’m not 100% sure about this scenario being 6 days out, but that’s what I’m seeing this evening. The good news is once this weather system clears the coast on Monday, it could be setting us up for a new cooler and drier weather pattern, with less humidity for next week. That would be a refreshing change!

Well, that’s all I have for this evening, my friends! As I mentioned two weeks ago, I will be on a every other week posting schedule for the balance of the summer. As it was, it was very difficult for me to pull off the blog tonight. I’m under time constraints, so it’s possible I may even miss more than one week at a time, until my situation improves. Unless a major weather situation threatens, this will be the schedule moving forward. So in two weeks time, I will be looking at our patterns moving into August, and hoping we have shaken this awful rainy pattern of July. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast! In the meantime, when situations became out of hand, I remember my dad saying, “enough is enough!” I’m sure that’s what everyone is collectively saying about all this rain!

Be safe and enjoy each day, everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

 

 

 

 

Two More Scorchers! 6/28/21

Hello! I apologize for the late post! So busy these days! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After a somewhat unsettled Saturday, the weather turned sunny & much warmer on Sunday. Though temperatures didn’t quite hit 90 in Boston, you could feel the heat building. It was a great beach day, for sure!

Today (Monday), marked the first day of a three day heatwave. Temperatures soared into the mid to upper 90’s across the region, with Boston coming in at a searing 97 degrees. As we often say, it’s not the heat, but the humidity. Factor in the dew point temperature, and this gave an intolerable heat index of well over 100 degrees!

With winds shifting more westerly tomorrow, temperatures may actually be a touch hotter. It would not shock me if some towns in eastern Massachusetts registered 100 degrees! This is due to air traveling downslope from the Berkshires towards the coastal plain. When this happens, air compresses, expands and warms.

With similar conditions expected for Wednesday, this should ensure this June of 2021, will be recorded as the hottest June ever observed in the city of Boston! So if you’ve been thinking it feels mighty hot around here for June, you’re correct!

So far, we’ve been averaging about 6 degrees above average on a daily basis. When the numbers are calculated early Thursday, it may show that we averaged close to 7 degrees above average in Boston this June.

With two more 90 degree days coming, the city also observed a staggering 9 days of 90 + degree heat this June. The average is just three. Add the two from May, and the city will have seen 11 ninety degree days already this season.

As I mentioned last week, it’s already been a hot summer. And despite a brief cooldown coming for the holiday weekend, it appears the heat is going to return not long after this upcoming weekend, and be with us periodically throughout the rest of the summer.

For once, I’m happy I updated my forecast at the summer solstice last week, increasing my 90 degree days this summer. The original forecast was for between 14 and 18 days. After reviewing late computer information, I increased that number to 19 and 23 days. Even if we receive just average number of 90 degree days for the rest of the summer, this would leave us with 21 by summers end.

My concern is we could surpass that number and head in to near record territory. As a reminder, the all time record of ninety degree days in Boston was 30, set back in 1983. It’s not out of the question if hot weather patterns persist in to July, August and sometimes even into September some years.

As has been the pattern this summer so far, the weather pattern abruptly changes, sending us scrambling for our sweat tops and jackets. Intense heat has been punctuated by several days of cooler, more comfortable weather.

Later this week will be no exception to this roller coaster pattern. A high amplitude pattern for this time of the year is bringing extreme heat to the Pacific Northwest, with all time record high temperatures recorded in both Portland, Oregon, and Seattle, Washington.

These were not just a degree or two. Portland soared to a unimaginable 115 degrees today, shattering the old all time record high by 8 degrees. Further north up the coast, Seattle also shattered their all time record high temperature by reaching 108 degrees, breaking the old record by 5 degrees.

With heat like this showing up in northern latitudes, it would not surprise me if something like this occurs in Boston later this summer. Our all time hottest temperature in Boston is 104 degrees set back on July 4th, 1911.

Highly amplitude patterns mean big domes of high pressure, bending the jet stream way to the north, allowing for extreme heat and dry weather to persist. Unfortunately, the downstream weather means there has to be a trough of low pressure (cool & rainy). So far, this through of low pressure has been perstinging across areas of the deep south and Texas. It’s been unususually rainy and cool in this part of the country.

Later this week, the jet stream is going to change again, and not for the better for us! A trough is going to try and move into the west coast, cooling them down. Meanwhile, a ridge is going to build in the center of the country. This is going to buckle the jet stream, sending a deep trough of low pressure towards the Ohio Valley, eventually migrating towards New England, you guessed it, over the 4th of July holiday weekend. A frontal boundary is going to stall along the coast, sending impulses of heavy rain across the region, especially Friday and Saturday. NO!!!! Just NO!!!!

I’m hoping it’s not going to be a washout like Memorial Day weekend, but the potential is there for at least 2 out of the three days to feature heavy rain. It’s only Monday, so I would not panic just yet. There’s still time for shifts and timing of the rain. I remember Memorial Day weekend kept looking worse as we headed towards the holiday, and unfortunately that all came to fruition. Let’s see what later computer model information will show as we head deeper into the week.

Needless to say, I can pretty much guarantee it’s not going to be sunny and warm all three days this weekend. In fact, Friday and Saturday look to be a washout. The hope is the system will push far enough off the coast so that we salvage Saturday night and the 4th of July day itself. More unsettled weather could move back into the region on Monday.

Now for your beach and boating forecast. It’s going to be a scorcher for Tuesday and Wednesday this week. These are going to be your best beach days for this week. It’s possible we may salvage Sunday, but that’s very iffy at this point and time. To escape the heat, boating would be a good option both tomorrow and Wednesday. There may be some scattered afternoon thunderstorms building in the heat and humidity each day. Thursday through Saturday will bring more unsettled weather, with periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. After a blistering hot day, overnight temperatures will likely only falll to about 78 in Boston, which will break the record low high temperature of 74 degrees.

Much of the region will be under a heat advisory on Tuesday. Expect air temperatures to reach 95 to 100 degrees across the region, with stifling levels of humidity. This will give much of the area heat indices of well over 100 degrees.

There may be a few scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, but if your community receives one, consider yourself very lucky.

Very warm and muggy weather will continue Tuesday night. Expect low temperatures similar to this evening.

Wednesday will feature another very hot day, perhaps not quite as hot as tomorrow, but it will be just as muggy, with nhighs in the mid to upper 90’s. There is a better chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, as a cool front approaches.

Though we may not hit 90 on Thursday, it will still be very muggy and uncomfortable. High temperatures will likely remain in the 80’s.

As a cold front passes through the region, expect winds to shift onshore later Thursday. This will introduce cooler weather into the region, along with the chance of rain.

As an area of low pressure slides south of New England on Friday, expect periods of heavy rain, which may continue into Friday night and into Saturday. It may not be raining all the time, but the potential exists for between 2 and 3″ of rain across the Boston area.

As I mentioned above, the rain will slowly diminish and move off the coast later Saturday. If we’re lucky, skies may try and brighten, allowing for some sunshine and a decent day for the 4th itself. I am feeling optimistic that it’s going to be a nice day! More light showers may try to develop once again on Monday, but no washout is anticipated at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now! I wish I had a better forecast for the weekend, but things can still change!

Just a quick announcement. I will be taking next Monday off from the blog, and will most likely be writing every other week during the summer months, unless severe weather threatens. As always, I very much appreciate all the positive feedback I receive from family and friends on Facebook & Twitter…it inspires me to keep writing about the passion I love! New England weather!

Stay safe my friends…and Happy July 4th!

Pete

Sailing into Summer! 6/21/21

Hello! Happy summer! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was certainly a summery weekend around much of New England. Admittedly, Saturday turned out to be much nicer than I anticipated in the forecast from last week. Many cities and towns reached or exceeded 90 degrees, even at the beaches! Father’s Day was another summer beauty, with much less humidity in the air. While many communities fell just short of 90, it was still plenty warm out to take a trip to the lakes and beaches.

Not including today, Boston has reached or surpassed 90 degrees 8 times already this season! Logan fell one degree short yesterday coming in at 89. While Saturday surprised many with the 90+ degree heat, expectations fell short yesterday, and so far do not look promising on reaching 90 today, when earlier it looked like a lock.

It’s all about the wind direction. A west southwest wind is key in driving heat right to the coast. When the wind has a more southerly component, areas north and west of Boston are hottest, while it remains slightly cooler in the city, and much cooler across southeastern, Mass. and the Cape.

Sometimes the wind suddenly shifts southwest later in the day, so it’s still not out of the question we touch 90 late in the day. If we don’t, we would remain at 8 for the season so far… two in May, and six so far here in June. On average, the city receives 14 ninety degree days in a typical summer.

But this is not going to be a typical summer around here. My summer forecast called for a warmer than average summer on the way. My initial call was for between 14 and 18 days of 90 degree temperatures. For those who are curious, I base how hot the summer season is by how many 90 degree days the region receives.

True, it’s all relative. Most people have their own threshold on what makes them feel hot. We can have a summer filled with over 20 ninety degree days, but if there was very little humidity to go along with that heat, well, it may not be so memorable for many.

However, every now and again, Mother Nature throws the lethal combination of hot temperatures and torrid levels of humidity in synchrony. When this occurs, as it did in the summer of 2018, it can make for intolerable conditions for outdoor work, sleep, or spending any time indoors without air conditioning. By the way, Boston saw 23 ninety degree days along with record high dew points that lasted well into September that year. Yuck!

On paper, last summer appeared to be exactly average. While Boston received 14 ninety degree days, that was not the whole story. For beach goers, there was a very weak feeble sea breezes right along the ocean edge for a good majority of July last year. This prevented Logan from receiving more than 20 ninety degree days last summer. In fact, looking back at the daily temperature log, Logan reported at least a half dozen days of 89 degrees, very much like yesterday.

This is why I say last summer was a very deceivingly hot summer. Many communities 5 miles inland received between 20 and 30 ninety degree days!

The point I’m trying to make is each summer is different around here. Just because we already have received 8 ninety degree days, does not automatically mean over 20 is a lock. Last year, we had reached 90 degrees 14 times by mid August. Surely we would of surpassed that number before the end of summer on September 20th, right? Nope! That was it, summer abruptly concluded early last year, with no more 90 degree days for the remainder of the season!

On average, Boston sees six 90 degree days in July, another 4 in August, and sometimes one in September. If we are just average over the next three months, that would make for 11 more 90 degree days, which would give us 19 for the season.

With all that being said, I believe this year is different. Ocean temperatures are warmer than last summer. Therefore, I’m not expecting as many seabreezes this July. In addition, we will be entering into a second year La Niña. This alone is a warm signal for hotter weather in the northeast the deeper we go into the summer. Add to this a general warmer climate in recent years, and I think it’s a very clear signal to me to bump up my 90 degree days this summer in Boston.

Based upon this latest information, I’m adjusting my 90 degree days from 14 to 18 up to between 19 and 23 days in Boston this summer. The all time record is 30 back in 1982. I’m stopping short of that, but I can tell you that it’s not out of the question we challenge that record, if everything falls into place.

What could go wrong? So many things! While I do see these signals for a hot summer, Mother Nature always has the final say! It’s possible we evolve into a humid, very warm summer with lots of showers and thunderstorms. This would make for a muggy summer, but the damp soil levels could keep temperatures from reaching 90 very often.

It’s also possible the main heat dome remains out west, with a ridge of high pressure (hot & dry), pushing the jet stream far to the north out there, while here in the east a shallow trough (cool & unsettled) brings frequent cool fronts from Canada into New England, allowing for a a less humid summer with cooler temperatures for the balance of July & August.

Yet another possibilty is to receive heavy moisture from tropical systems riding up along the eastern seaboard. This alone would keep prevent extended heat waves from occurring. A tropical storm is possible later this summer or fall, but I do not believe it will derail the hot summer idea.

Those are just some wildcards that could happen. At this point, I am not expecting any of these to be a major fact this summer. I was advised not to change the original forecast family & friends, but based upon the information I’m currently looking at, a change is warranted. We shall add it all up & see how I do by summer’s end!

Now for your weekly beach & boating forecast. Best beach days this week are going to be today, Wednesday and Thursday, and again next weekend! Tomorrow is one of those iffy days. A cold front will be approaching, at the same time it will turning very muggy. This alone will instigate fog along the south coast and Cape. In addition, there could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. But, as we saw on Saturday, there’s always a chance the sun burns it off, and the day could be salvageable.

After the cool front sweeps off the coast, expect cooler & drier air to work its way back into New England for Wednesday and Thursday. Warmer air moving back into the region could mean some clouds on Friday. The upcoming weekend looks mainly dry and warmer, though a pop up thunderstorm can’t be ruled out.

Best boating days look to be Wednesday and Thursday this week, then again this upcoming weekend. A tropical storm is passing southeast of New England later today and tomorrow, which will kick up the seas. Southwesterly winds may make things a bit choppy this weekend, especially south side of the Cape, though it’s not looking fierce at this time.

Now for your local outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect a warm & fairly muggy afternoon, with building clouds. Temperatures look to top off in the mid to upper 80’s. Though it’s remote, there is a chance of an evening shower, especially towns north and west of Boston this evening. Otherwise, expect mainly cloudy weather overnight, along with muggy feel to the air.

Watch for dense fog in coastal areas and Cape Cod early Tuesday morning. this may or may not burn off during the afternoon to reveal some sunshine. Nevertheless, it will be a warm day, with highs mainly in the 80’s.

There is a chance of some evening showers tomorrow night, mainly south of Boston, and especially the Cape. Expect clearing skies later at night, with dropping dew point temperatures.

Expect mainly sunny and more comfortable weather for both Thursday and Friday this week. Temperatures will be refreshing on Wednesday, with highs in the 70’s, then warm up into the low 80’s on Thursday and Friday. Ther will be more clouds around on Friday, so I’m not expecting a completely sunny day.

Right now, it appears much of New England will be on the eastern side of a rather deep trough of low pressure to our west this weekend. If things work out, most of the weekend could end up being on the warm and muggy side with a southerly flow, and a tropical look to the sky. I can’t rule out a spot shower or thunderstorm, but a washout is not anticipated at this moment.

Well, that’s about it for now, friends! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a very close look into our all important 4th of July weekend forecast! I will also monitor to see if there are any heat waves in our immediate future, along with a new beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, if you are a fan of hot weather, this could be the summer for you!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Heat is Gone…For Now! 6/14/21

Hello! Happy Flag Day! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! The weather cooperated for the most part. Saturday began with some light showers and cloudy weather. Later in the day, the sun broke through allowing for a pleasant afternoon. Sunday also started off with some clouds, but the weather improved more rapidly, allowing for quite a beautiful afternoon. Temperatures were seasonable on Saturday, but warmed up to beach weather on Sunday. All in all, it was a fairly seasonable weekend.

Right on cue, the cold front finally moved through last Wednesday evening, putting an end to the extremely early 5 day heat wave in Boston. When all was said and done, it was the longest stretch of early season heat in Boston since 1925…nearly 100 years ago! If you thought it was early to receive that kind of heat, you were correct!

Funny how some years we can’t buy any 90 degree days in June, but this year we had no problem reaching them 5 times so early in this mostly spring month. Add another two from back in May, and Boston is already half way to their seasonal average total of 14…and it’s not even officially summer yet!

More than the heat, it was the atrocious humidity levels that made it feel so uncomfortable last Tuesday and Wednesday. Last Monday I reported how I thought it didn’t feel too bad, as early season heat waves generally do not come with the high dew point temperatures like we many times see later in July and especially August. Once again, Mother Nature proved me wrong by surging intolerable dew point temperatures at the tail end of the heat wave last week. Yuck!

The much anticipated cold front could not get here soon enough! As expected, winds shifted into the northeast Wednesday night, as much cooler and drier air surged in from the Canadian Maritimes. Most importantly, dew point temperatures plummeted, making for a much more comfortable day last Thursday.

While it just turned cooler & drier here in Boston, it became so cool that there actually was snow reported in Newfoundland, Canada last Thursday! This just goes to show you how cool the airmass was that surpressed the intense heat wave to our south.

In some cases, the heat returns a day or two after a cool front moves through. This is typically the case in July and August, when the Bermuda High is at its peak intensity. Cool air masses charge into New England from southern Canada, giving us New Englanders temporary breaks from intense summer heat.

Not this time however. This pattern change meant business, as the whole upper air pattern has been temporarily rearranged. For now, the pattern retrograted, meaning the big dome of heat has retrograted west, to the western part of the country. Meanwhile, cool high pressure has built in from Newfoundland down the coast alll the way into New England. This has resulted in a trough (cool & wet) of low pressure to settle over New England for at least the next two weeks. This means more chances of rainfall, and certainly no 90 degree days through at least June 28th.

As longtime Boston meteorologist Harvey Leonard explained, “this hot start to June is not sustainable.” We have been running nearly 11 degrees above average. With the cooler weather anticipated for the next couple weeks, we will lower that number somewhat, but it appears this June will be a lock for well above average temperatures in Boston.

Thereafter, it appears as if the Bermuda High will once again begin to flex her muscles, with building heat & humidity for what looks to be arriving the first week of July heading into the 4th of July holiday weekend. While not set in stone, long range computer models are quite bullish on this secenario panning out.

I was chatting with my sister Pam about the possibility of increasing my 90 degree days predicted for this summer. If you recall, my summer forecast posted back on May 24th is calling for between 14 and 18 ninety degree days this summer in Boston.

Pam thinks I should go with my initial forecast, as my updates typically do not pan out! She has a point! I do notice when I make changes to my original forecast, it usually does not work out the way I anticipated it was going to. One theory I have, is that it’s possible I do most of my thorough research on the initial seasonal forecast. When I do the update, I look too much into recent trends, and sway away from my initial thinking.

With that being said, I am very confident a hot summer is on the way. As I mentioned last week, it’s already been hot, and it’s not even officially summer yet! We shall see how the summer pattern evolves. If the heat dome indeed builds back into New England to start July, we could be looking at record amount of 90 degree days July through September. I tend to be conservative with my numbers, but if I see growing evidence of hotter than normal weather patterns settling in to start July, I may indeed increase the number to reflect my thinking.

Some believe early heat waves do not translate into a hot summer. Looking back at the statistics, there may be some truth to that! There have been instances of hot weather in June, only to turn cooler for the rest of the summer! I don’t believe this is the case this year. We are in a very warm cycle. The Bermuda High pressure has been stronger than normal past several summers. As I have mentioned from the spring, I see no evidence of a cool summer this year.

The key is July. If the hot weather returns with a vengeance in July, watch out! We will most likely sizzle here in Boston with over 20 ninety degree days this summer. The record is 30 set back in 1982. My final update to my summer forecast will be posted one week from today.

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. Expect inclement weather for today and tomorrow with some much needed rain. However, expect clearing skies and warmer temperatures for the period Wednesday through Friday. There will be another chance of showers on Saturday only to clear out for a beautiful Father’s Day on Sunday. For this week, good boating weather will match up nicely with good beach days. Expect Wednesday through Friday to be good days, then take the boat out for another great day on Father’s Day itself! Enjoy!

Now time for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10. A nice mix of sunny warm days, along with a few chances of much needed rainfall. Fairly typical June weather.

Expect unsettled weather conditions for today and for part of tomorrow as well, for that matter. It will not be raining all the time, but there will be some downpours and perhaps a few thunderstorms from time to time. Temperatures should be close to average for this time of year…at least it’s not a cold rain, and we do need the water!

Look for improving weather conditions, with a good amount of sunshine for the period Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures may start off in the mid 70’s on Wednesday , but warm up into the lower 80’s by Friday.

If you were looking for a perfect weekend with sunny skies and warm temperatures, this will not be the weekend for you! However, as I mentioned above, after a few showers and thunderstorms move through the region on Saturday, Father’s Day is looking to turn out to be a real gem of a day! Expect mostly sunny skies, and warm temperatures, possibly up into the mid 80’s. Beach day, anyone? Oh, by the way, Sunday is also the official first day of summer! Enjoy!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating my summer forecast, which may have a revision, or not! I will also have my new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, the heat may be singing a different tune the rest of June, but may back to fry us in July!

Happy father’s Day to all the great Dads out there…Incliding my Dad up in Heaven!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Heat Wave…Then Cooler! 6/7/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, I would have to say the weather more like what we would expect in August, not early June. Nevertheless, summer has indeed arrived, and the weather this past weekend was nothing short of spectacular, if you enjoy summer!

We are now in day three of a four day heat wave. Saturday turned surprisingly hot, with high temperatures in Boston reaching 92 degrees. Sunday was even hotter, with low to mid 90’s all the way to the beaches!

The key this weekend was offshore westerly breezes. Winds coming from this direction is a downslope wind, blowing off of the Berkshires, and the hills of Worcester County. As the air travels downslope, it expands and warms when it reaches the coastal plain. Therefore, coastal areas experienced the hottest temperatures yesterday, with Boston coming in at 94 degrees!

During summer, many folks here in New England say, “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” The one saving grace for us yesterday was that the dew point temperatures were only in the 50’s! Dew point temperature measures the amount of water droplets or moisture in the air. The higher the dew point, the heavier the air feels, which makes us feel sluggish with low energy levels.

I enjoy looking at the dew point temperature chart meteorologists show on television. This is a chart that clearly depicts our comfort level, in relation to the dew point temperature. Dew point temperatures between 50 and 60 degrees is relatively dry, and “comfy.” When dew points rise to between 60 and 70 degrees, it becomes uncomfortable, and “muggy.” If the dew point temperature continues to rise to 70 degrees and beyond, we enter the “oppressive” zone. Living in air like this is not good for anyone. It makes us feel very uncomfortable, irritable with low energy. Yuck!

Fortunately for us, this heat wave has featured low dew point temperatures, so far! Later today, and especially tomorrow, dew point temperatures may increase towards 70 degrees, which will make it feel very uncomfortable for being outdoors.

Here in early June, dew point levels are not as extreme as later in the summer. As we head into later July and August, higher levels of humidity continue to increase from the south. A heat wave like this later on in the summer would feature much higher levels of humidity, making it feel much worse!

Nonetheless, we are experiencing our first official heat wave! Hard to believe we were experiencing record low high temperatures just last week on Memorial Day weekend! This is how we achieve our averages. Longtime Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal always says, “it’s the extremes that makes the averages.”

It’s true! Our weather is never constantly the same. It could be similar for a few days in a row, maybe even for a week or two in some cases, but eventually it changes, swinging back the other way. Droughts always lead to floods, and hot temperatures always turn cold. It’s the cycle of weather.

Speaking of heat waves, today will mark the third consecutive day of 90 + degrees in Boston. For an official heat wave, the temperature must reach or surpass 90 degrees for 3 straight days. Tomorrow will be the 4th day, and will also be our 6th 90 degree day of the season…and the official start of summer is still two weeks away!

You may be thinking, it feels awfully hot so early in the season, is this normal? Truth is, Boston has not had a hot stretch in June for several years now. Boston can experience heat waves this time of the year, though it does not happen often. This is the 7th earliest heat wave on record in Boston. The earliest was May 2-4 back in 2001.

Am I surprised? Not really! I was fully expecting a warm to hot June this year. As I mentioned above, it has not been this hot during June for a long time. In fact, real hot weather has waited until July 4th or later to settle into the Boston area past several summers.

Does this mean a hot summer is on the way? Yes…not only do believe a hot summer is on the way, but I believe it’s already here! Tomorrow will be out 6th 90 degree day, already! Last year it took until the middle of July to reach this number. Boston averages 14 days of 90 degree weather each summer.

A couple weeks ago I forecasted between 14 and 18 ninety degree days this summer in my summer forecast. Looking over the latest information, I feel very confident we are going to reach this range. I will have my summer forecast update when the solstice arrives in a couple weeks. There are some strong indications I may be bumping up those 90 degree days.

Some people in the field believe early heat before the solstice typicall does not yield hot summers. And in fact, a major reversal in the pattern later this week is going flip our weather back to cooler pattern, while the west heats up. This is a retrograding pattern, where our heat dome retrogrades out west, while cooler weather builds in from northeast Canada and the Maritimes into New England. This will lead to a refreshingly cooler, drier airmass which will extend into this weekend!

Is this a permanent pattern change for the rest of the summer? I do not believe so. I merely believe this is a temporary break in our hot pattern. I believe this a warning shot for similar pattern to repeat itself during the course of the summer. The hot weather obviously can not continue for 90 straight days. After all, this is Boston, not Phoenix!

Now, there have been years when such a flip this time of the year leads to a permanent pattern change for the rest of the season. I don’t believe this is the case this year. In a warming climate, I believe the warm to hot weather will once again overwhelm the region repetitively over the course of the summer…especially later in the summer extending into September this year.

We are very fortunate to be living in New England. Other parts of the country do not receive many breaks if at all for the entire summer! So far, this is still very early in the season, areas across the north have received more hot weather than southern areas.

A friend on Twitter living in west Texas has been enjoying cooler than average temperatures, with abundant rainfall so far this spring. This is very unusual weather for that part of the country, as they are normally already in the 90’s on a daily basis with drought this time of the year. We’ll see if this continues, or if the heat arrives later in the summer down there.

After a disastrous Memorial weekend, the first weekend of summer (unofficial) certainly was quite the change! With temperatures soaring into the 90’s, many folks flocked to the beach, mountains and lakes across New England! Your best beach days this week are going to be today, tomorrow, and maybe part of Wednesday? Otherwise, next weekend looks like fairly good beach weather, though Saturday may still be a bit too cool for some?

Expect hot weather today and tomorrow, with warm & muggy weather on Wednesday. This will be followed by cooler and drier weather for the period of Thursday through Sunday.

Boaters be aware of the chance of thunderstorms each day through Wednesday, with chances increasing each day as the cold front approaches and passes the region on Wednesday. Also beware of sudden wind shifts to the northeast later Wednesday with increasing rough seas. Thereafter, cooler northerly winds will mean choppy seas north side of Cape Cod later in the week into the weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week another 8 out of 10.

Watch for another scorcher for the rest of this afternoon! The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for much of our area. Look for partly sunny and hot weather for the rest of today. High temperatures will soar into the mid 90’s across much of the area. There is some instability in the region, which may lead to a few scattered pop up afternoon summer thunderstorms in the region.

Air conditioners will be needed overnight, as higher dew point temperatures will lead to uncomfortable levels of humidity. Low temperatures will fall into the 60’s in most locations.

An approaching cold front will lead to more cloudiness tomorrow. This will keep temperatures slightly cooler than today, but dew point temperature will be higher, which means it will most likely feel just as hot, if not a touch hotter tomorrow. High temperatures will mostly be in the low 90’s. With the front in the area, there’s a better chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but no washout is anticipated at this time.

Any storms will diminish tomorrow evening, leaving us with uncomfortable sleeping conditions overnight. Lows will mainly be in the 60’s, with high levels of humidity.

Changes will begin on Wednesday. A strong black door cold front will be sweeping northeast to southwest across the region, reaching Boston during the late afternoon and evening, with shifting winds, and the chance of a few afternoon thunderstorms. These storms typically form over Cape Ann area to Cape Cod, some of which can turn severe. With more clouds, it does not look like we’re going to reach a 5th day of 90. Rather, highs should remain in the 80’s, though it will still feel very muggy.

Watch for much cooler and drier weather moving into New England from the Canadian Maritimes later this week into the upcoming weekend. North to northeast winds will help keep temperatures in the 70’s on Thursday, only 60’s and lower 70’s on Friday, back to low 70’s to mid 70’s on Saturday, and warming up to near 80 on Sunday. It will be mainly dry weather throughout the period, with comfortable overnights.

Well, that’s all I have for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the lookout for when the hot weather may return. I will also have a new beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, in typical New England fashion, if you don’t like the hot weather, just wait a bit, a cooler change is ahead!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

A very Happy Birthday to my sister Pam! (Friday June 11th).

Here Comes Summer! 5/31/21

Hello! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! The weather left lots to be desired in most of New England! I do not believe there are enough adjectives to describe how miserable the weather pattern was this weekend. How ironic that we had such a glorious spring for March, April and most of May, only to have a three day nor’easter punch us right in the gut here on Memorial Day weekend.

It was if Mother Nature was teasing us with a near three day heat wave last weekend, making us believe that summer was truly here! With covid restrictions finally lifted, it seemed to be a perfect weekend to hold social events with family & friends who many have not seen in a long time. Many had plans to go to the beach this weekend, too.

Unfortunately, the weather had other plans for all of us. Last Monday, I had my concerns for the long holiday weekend. I was doing my best to spin an optimistic outlook on the forecast projections. Unfortunately, the unsettled outlook had merit, and went even beyond what I had envisioned.

Impeccable timing from Mother Nature had winds turning onshore and rain surging into the Boston area just after 5:00 pm Friday. Temperatures dropped into the 40’s with gusty northeast winds and a wind driven rain which continued for much of Saturday. Along with the 2 to 4″ of rainfall, many cities and towns shattered records for record high low temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday. There was even accumulating snow in elevations above 3000 ft in Vermont and New Hampshire!

After a brief lull, rain and wind redeveloped on Sunday and continued through much of the night. So far today. the holiday itself, there has been a few splashes of sun, and temperatures are a smidge milder, but there could be a few more showers this afternoon, before the whole system lifts on out just in time for the end of the holiday.

Memorial Day is typically the unofficial start of summer season here in New England. Most people think it’s a time for parties and having a good time. I’m not condoning having a good time, especially when many have been cooped up in their homes for over a year, but I ask people to remember the symbolism this holliday brings.

When we’re enjoying our evening cook out with family & friends, keep the men & women in your thoughts who served and are serving our country to help bring the freedom which we all enjoy today. Freedom does not come without a price.

While we’re at it, why not include first responders, doctors & nurses along with them, who risk their lives everyday to keep us safe during these troubling times! We can also remember anyone who we have lost…from friends, relatives and especially parents on this day.

Back to our normally scheduled program! Many were shocked at how quickly the weather went from mid summer conditions last weekend, to November like weather this weekend. For me, it was not too much of a surprise. I could see cold air building in Canada, and a low pressure developing south of New England.

This is not a good recipe for nice weather any time of the year. We’ve been running welll above average temperatures for many weeks now, so a correction to cooler weather was imminent. It’s also been incredibly dry. After a wet first week of May, much of our region did not record any rainfall for nearly three straight weeks. This is almost unheard of around here.

Many folks were very pleased with the above average warmth the last couple weeks. No doubt, it’s so nice after a fairly long winter with chilly temperatures. However, I cautioned many times that long stretches of summery weather in April & May is very untypical, and too early for New England in most years.

There have been some very rare years when summer weather runs the table from March through October, without any setbacks. The incredible warm year of 2012 comes to mind. In most years, early surges of warm weather retreat back south until finally settling in later in June. Cold ocean temperatures typically hold the wam air at bay until after the summer solstice.

Last week I mentioned of a warmer than normal summer on the way in my summer forecast. Already I’m seeing signs from computer models that this summer could be a lot hotter than what I even anticipated.

According to latest computer guidance, a large ridge (warm & dry) of high pressure is going to begin to build across New England this week. There are some signs this ridge, or I like to explain it as a “warm bubble” of air, is going to persist through much of June this year. There are other indications that show this feature locking in place for the majority of the summer.

As it stands now, I’m expecting a hotter than normal June around here this year. Typically Boston sees around 3 days of 90 degree heat during June. This year, I’m calling for between 5 and 7 days in Boston. It’s going to get hot, so get your a.c.’s ready!

Along with the hot weather, there is still good indications of frontal activity penetrating New England at times. If this indeed is the case, we can expect at or above average rainfall in June this year in the Boston area. Tycially, we would see about 3″ of rain during June. I mentioned that we may see more rain this summer than recent years in my summer forecast, so this is a good sign.

This is coming off a warmer & wetter May here in Boston. There were large swings of dry weather, but the rains at the start of May, and the deluge this past weekend brought levels to above normal this month. May was also our third above average month in a row, and 12 out of the last 13 months above average. Only February was below, and that was only by a tenth of a degree.

Last week I mentioned that I will be updating my summer forecast around the time of the solstice. At this moment, my forecast is calling for between 14 and 18 ninety degree days for Boston this summer. We have already had two this May. If June ends up with as many 90 degree days as what I’m thinking, I may need to bump up the 90 degree days. This is looking like a hot summer folks…possibly even record territory!

Now for your weekly summer beach & boating forecast. Despite the stormy and cold weather of this past weekend, and unsettled weather of today, this week is looking to turn quite summery as the week progresses.

Expect best beach days to be tomorrow and Wendnesday, then again next Saturday and Sunday. There may be some showers on Thursday and Friday, but a washout is not anticipated at this point. Boaters expect a moderate chop out there today, then again possibly on Thursday as a cold front approaches. Building heat will yield to choppy seas on south side of Cape Cod next weekend, as southwest winds increase.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. Big improvement this week, I’m rating this week an 8 out of 10.

Watch for mainly cloudy weather for the rest of your Monday. There could be some patchy drizzle in a few coastal locations. As the storm begins to pull away, there is the possibility of some brightening skies towards evening. If this happens, temperatures may warm a few degrees before sunset. In general, I’m expecting mainly low to mid 60’s across the region.

Look for clearing skies tonight. With light winds, there could be some patchy fog developing in coastal locations and Cape Cod. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40’s and 50’s.

Expect partly sunny and warmer weather as we head back to work on Tuesday. Tomorrow is also June 1st, and the first day of meteorological summer! It will feel summery, with highs reaching between 75 and 80 degrees!

Tuesday night will feature fair and cool conditions, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. patchy ground fog is possible.

Watch for slightly warmer weather for the period Wednesday through Friday. There will be some instability, along with a front crossing the region on Thursday. Therefore, there is the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, mostly focused during the afternoon on Wednesday, and anytime during the day on Thursday. No washout is anticipated, but expect to get wet at one point or another. As I mentioned it will be warmer, with highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.

A building Bermuda High pressure south of New England will bring strengthening southwest winds, along with hotter temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday. At this point, I would say it looks good for the beach! Temperatures should warm up into the upper 80’s close to 90 on Saturday, and possibly lower 90’s on Sunday. This heat may continue into the following week as well.

Well, that’s about it for today, my friends. In next week’s blog, I will be closely monitoring the possibility of our first heat wave. I will also be talking more about our upcoming summer patterns, and have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, we can finally pack away the winter attire for another season…as we welcome the return of summer!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer 2021: Warmer Trends Continue…5/24/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, the weather this weekend was one of which you would expect sometime for mid summer, not necessarily here in May. Saturday featured very warm conditions, with plenty of sun, and temperatures climbing all the way to 89 degrees in Boston. Sunday featured our first 90 degree day in Boston, and was definitely a preview of what’s to come this summer! With this type of weather, many folks flocked to the beach and mountains to get out and enjoy some fresh year!

After a chilly start to May, Boston has seen 13 straight days of above average temperatures. With temperatures like this, we are now sitting at the 4th warmest May’s on record! In addition, we received our first 90 degree day yesterday, and chances are very high of our second 90 degree day coming this Wednesday.

Things are going to cool off this weekend, but no doubt, we are looking at another above average month when all is said done. With this pretty much a lock, this would make it 11 out of the last 13 months which have featured above average normal temperatures here in Boston. I believe only September of 2020 featured below average temperatures, and then this past February, which finished below average by only one tenth of a degree.

With all this talk of warm weather, you may be thinking it’s been warm every day of each month. However, we all know this is not how averages work. In many cases, there has been cold stretches of weather, only to be outdueled by warm stretches.

One graphic I love to see local meteorologists show on tv is the monthly temperature squares. This graphic clearly shows the warmer than normal days in red, and the colder than average days in blue. Neutral days that are exactly average are depicted with gray color. Some months start off with many colder than normal days, only to be erased by warmer days. With this month running nearly 4.5 degrees warmer than normal, there has been a lot of red squares! It’s a simple map to understand…perhaps that’s why I enjoy it!

Nevertheless, despite what the squares say, the overall pattern is warmer than normal. In fact, you could trace the warm pattern all the way back to when it truly began…July 2015. After the historic record winter of 2014-15, spring that year remained on the coolish side through June. Finally, when the super El Niño took hold, temperatures suddenly spiked in July, and they have not looked back since. Aside from a few exceptions, most seasons have averaged above average…in some cases way above average.

I have asked the question before, but I will ask it again. Have we entered a permanent climate change, or is this part of a large scale cyclical change? You see, Mother Nature plays tricks with your mind. While you’re in the pattern, it would lead you to believe that it’s never going to change again. The truth to the matter is, is that it does change. It never stays cold & snowy forever, nor will it stay warm & humid forever. My belief is that these patterns run in 6 to 8 year cycles.

In general, it’s been cold & snowy out west for the last 6 winters, and warm & dry in the east. If my theory is correct, we are nearing the tipping point, possibly in the next 1 to 3 years, where this pattern is going to be reversed. In the meantime, if you love warmer than normal weather patterns…enjoy it while we have it!

Why do these patterns set up and become stagnent? This is a great question, and one that atmospheric scientists are researching on a daily basis. In the meantime, we will ride the warm trends until I see evidence of change.

So what can we expect for this upcoming summer? In some ways, summer can be more challenging to forecast than winter. Much like in late fall, Mother Nature can send head fakes this time of the year, only to end up the exact opposite on what you thought was going to happen.

The key here, are patterns that will repeat themselves when astronomical summer arrives. We’ve been warm this spring. Each month of spring has featured above average temperatures.

There are certain teleconnections I look for to determine how hot we’re going to get during a summer season. One of these teleconnections is the “Bermuda High” off the east coast. When this high pressure is strong, it tends to expand towards the west, acting as a heat pump to transport our hot weather into new England during the summer.

Along with the Bermuda High, I also like to look at what I call “bubbles” of heat, and cold “pools” of temperatures. This is associated with the jet stream in the upper atmosphere. So far this spring, the bubble of warm air has been predominantly here in the northeast. You could say this is an extension of the Bermuda High, or ridge (warm & dry) of high pressure along the east coast. A cold pool of air, or trough (cold & wet) has set up shop in the Rocky Mountain region, extending up through Montana, who recently saw a snowstorm this past weekend!

Another area I closely monitor are the ocean temperatures across the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Ocean temperatures have been running well above average off the east coast for several years in a row now. Warmer than normal ocean temperatures help promote hot weather & heat waves along the east coast.

Other notable factors I keep a close eye on is soil moisture levels. Drier than normal soil levels indicate less evaporation for the sun to work on. This could be a sign of hotter than normal temperatures in regions with dry soil levels. Right now, moisture soil levels are drier than normal over much of northern New England, and near normal tending slightly drier down here in southern New England.

I have mentioned it many times over the course of this spring. I see no evidence to suggest a cooler than normal summer coming up this year here in New England. It does not look like any records will be broken, but we will already have two 90 degree days in the bank before June!

On average, logan Airport typically sees 14 ninety degree days over the course of the warm season. For this summer, I’m expecting between 14 and 18 days of 90 degree temperatures in Boston. Three years ago, Boston saw 23 days, last year landed at 14. I’m expecting this summer to be a little hotter than last summer, but not as hot as 2018.

If you recall, last summer was exceptionally dry. I’m expecting more rainfall this summer in the form of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. I’m expecting some rapid changes this summer, in the form of cool fronts penetrating the region, bringing with it the chances of more rain than last summer. in addition, the fronts could bring refreshing breaks from our friends in Canada, especially during June and July. August and September may feature our hottest temperatures of the year this summer. We are still in La Niña conditions, which typically bring hotter than normal weather later in the summer.

As I do in my winter forecast, I will have a seasonal update on or near the summer solstice around June 20th. I’m confident in my forecast, but changes could still occur as they do in winter, which would require me to update the forecast.

With the Memorial Day weekend coming up, I will post a new weekly summer beach & boating Forecast!

After this past weekends summer heat, and hot weather forecasted for Wednesday, you may think summer is here to stay. Unfortunately, it appears as if temperatures will be cooling off over the holiday weekend. I would say best beach & boating days this week will be on Wednesday & perhaps for a time on Thursday. Otherwise, cooler weather and choppy seas will be the rule this weekend, possibly calming down a bit on Memorial Day itself. Remember, it’s very early still, we’re still only in May, not traditionally a beach month here in New England.

Now for your outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of your Monday. Onshore winds will keep it cool across the Boston area, with highs remaining in the 60’s. Nevertheless, it should be a pleasant evening for a walk.

Look for clear & cool weather overnight, with lows mainly in the 40’s and low 50’s.

Tuesday will feature warmer weather, as winds will shift more from the south southwest. With a warm front approaching, expect some cloudiness around, along with times of sun. Temperatures should warm to between 75 and 80, except cooler temperatures along south facing coastal locations.

Tuesday night will be dry and on the warm side, with lows mainly in the 50’s and 60’s.

Expect full force summer weather on Wednesday, with hazy & hot & humid weather pouring into the region, with afternoon highs reaching the low 90’s in many communities, including Boston.

A cold front will be approaching the region later in the day. This will have cooler & drier air behind it, and will be the focal point of showers and thunderstorms. Most storms should wait until the evening time, but there could be a few in the afternoon heating of the day before that.

Unfortunately, clouds may block our view of the full “Flower Moon” Wednesday evening. It’s possible there may be breaks early in the evening. Check it out!

After overnight showers and thunderstorms, Thursday may start with early clouds, but expect these clouds to clear out fairly early in the day, leaving most of Thursday with mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures. With winds shifting to northwest, expect temperatures to be very pleasant, with highs between 75 and 80, along with lower dew point temperatures.

Unfortunately, changes will begin on Friday, as winds shift onshore. This is the start of our troubles coming up this weekend. Temperature will turn cooler on Friday, with highs only in the low to mid 60’s.

There will be timing issues this weekend. Computer models are showing a low pressure system developing and tracking south of New England. This could shift this far out.

Right now, this low pressure looks like it will move through our region Saturday into early Sunday, with rainy and almost cold weather compared to what we’ve been used to. With the low tracking south of New England, this means onshore winds and inclement weather.

If we’re lucky, the storm may pull away for us to salvage the rest of Sunday into Monday. If this happens, conditions may improve enough to have an outdoor cookout with a heavy hoodie and sweat pants on. Plan for the worst and pray for the best! Things can still change this far out!

Well, that’s about it for now, friends! In next week’s blog, I will have my review of April, and a preview for June. I will also discuss my summer forecast a bit more, and have your new beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, if you like summer weather, the trend is your friend…except this weekend!

Happy Birthday to my dear Aunty Helen & sister in law Cathryn this week!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer Preview! 5/17/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a summery type of weekend, with temperatures feeling more like late June, than mid May. Both days featured mainly dry conditions. However, as mentioned in last weeks post, a pocket of cold air aloft resulted in an unstable atmosphere, with billowy cumulus clouds popping up during each afternoon. Eventually, these clouds produced some scattered showers and thunderstorms across some communities, some of which contained some small hail!

A byproduct of the late afternoon storms were some spectacular rainbows. Peter Lovasco of Northeastern Mass Weather Alerts captured a couple beautiful double rainbow pictures up in Gloucester, Ma.!

After a chilly start to May, things have turned around in a hurry here in mid month. Doesn’t this seem to happen every year? It appears we go straight from winter/late spring right into summer! With very warm temperatures forecasted for this week, this actually seems to be arriving sooner than other years! I’m not surprised with this May warm up. I was fully expecting May to feature above normal temperatures, and we are certainly on our way to achieving that.

But is this truly the start of summer? Is this the beginning of consistent 80’s and 90’s from now through mid September? Anything is possible, but I would say the answer to this is not likely. We are still more than one month away from the official start of summer. There’s bound to be some more cooler & unsettled stretches of weather before then. It’s still early, and the oceans are only now beginning to warm up.

Yet, there’s good reason for optimism. Warm temperatures showing up during May can be a sign of hot weather during the summer months. I have mentioned it before, but I like to look at May & November being similar months on the seasonal calendar. May is the month prior to when summer arrives, and November is the month before winter. More often than not, a warm May will lead to a warm to hot summer, similar to as a cold November will lead to a colder than normal winter.

In addition, I sent a post out on Facebook yesterday that seemed to brighten up the day for many of my friends! The post stated how yesterday was the first day of 8:00 PM sunsets! This will continue for the next 80 days all the way until August 4th! The longer days mean warmer temperatures, and more time to be spending outdoors at the beach, camping, hiking or gardening!

Indeed, it’s a long summer. Any warm streatches of weather before June 1st is a bonus. You would be surprised to know that hot weather the past couple summers have not arrived until after July 4th here in Boston! However, once it arrives, there were many days that reached or surpassed 90. Three years ago we had a marathon summer, with 23 days of 90 degree temperatures! The summer after was still hot, but not as many 90 degree days. Last summer was another hot one, but abruptly ended in late August, which led to a cooler September for a change.

So, what’s next? My official 2021 summer forecast will be posted just one week from today! At this early juncture, I see no reason not to believe that another hot summer is on the way. Just how hot, is still to be determined. Warmer than normal ocean temperatures should easily allow the Bermuda high pressure to build off the southern Atlantic coast. There should be little to no resistance for a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) to build along the east coast this summer.

As a reminder, I rate how hot our summers are by the number of 90 degree days we receive. On average, Boston receives 14 ninety degree days per summer. As we always say, the extremes make the averages. Some years are boom years, with over 20, others have less than 10. We have not had less than 10 since I believe 2009, in Boston.

A couple weeks ago NOAA updated their climatology periods. In other words, they take 30 year climate cycles, and come up with new averages. The latest 30 year cycle is from 1990 to 2020. What does it show for our climate here in Boston? It shows that our climate has become warmer & wetter compared to the previous cycle from 1980 to 2010.

I’m curious to see if Boston’s average number of 90 degree days have also gone up in this period. I am doing some research to find the answer to this, and will surely let you know when I do.

By the way, with a wetter climate, it’s interesting to note that Boston’s average yearly snowfall has also increased! What was 44″ has now swelled to 49″ per year. More water vapor in the atmosphere, has obviously led to bigger snowfalls. Boston has not received this much snow in any period, in recorded history.

It will be interesting to see if there’s a tipping point to theses snowy statistics. Eventually, if the climate continues to warm, many of these snowstorms will feature more mixed precipitation events or just plain rainstorms, leading to less snowfall in the future.

This is just speculation, but judging by the past several winters, this may of already begun. If this is indeed the case, you would then have to look to see if this is just a warm cycle in our climate, or more of a permanent change. We had a stretch of mild, snowless winters in the 80’s, only to reverse again in the 90’s. Boston has now experienced below average snowfall 4 out of the last 6 years. Either way, it’s disappointing for folks who love snowstorms.

Now time for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I am giving this week an 8 out of 10!

For the rest of your Monday, expect a mixture of sun and puffy cumulus clouds. With a light onshore breeze, it won’t be as warm as it was over the weekend, but it should be very pleasant outdoors nonetheless! If you are planning for an evening walk, there’s still a slight chance for a pop up shower before the sun sets, in some communities. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the upper 60’s and low 70’s across the region.

Be on the look out for a picturesque sunset, as clouds diminish this evening. Later on, look for fair and mild weather across the region, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

Tuesday will feature similar weather to today. A sunny start will lead to building clouds, with a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon, especially across eastern Massachusetts. This will by no means be a washout, as only 10% of the region will experience any rain. It will be a bit warmer, with highs generally between 75 and 80.

Expect fair and mild weather Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 50’s.

Time for your summer preview! Watch for summer like temperatures to surge into southern New England both Wednesday and Thursday. With very little instability, expect more sun and much warmer temperatures. I’m expecting temperatures to reach the mid 80’s across much of our area. It’s not out of the question some interior towns and cities reach 90 degrees, especially on Thursday. With light winds, there’s a chance some towns along the east coast of Massachusetts experience a cooling seabreeze, which may hold temperatures in the low 70’s.

This is not too far fetched, as the oceans are still much colder than the land, which would promote a seabreeze this time of the year. This would be more a refreshing breeze, rather than a cold breeze we sometimes see this time of year.

Watch for warmer than normal temperatures to continue right through the upcoming weekend. The difference is that there will be an increasing chance of some showers and thunderstorms each afternoon from Friday through Sunday. I’m not anticipating any washouts at this point. However, a typical afternoon shower or thunderstorm is more likely during this period compared to Wednesday and Thursday. While temperatures will slightly cool back into the upper 70’s and low 80’s, this is still much above average for this time of the year.

Well, that’s about all for today, friends! In next week’s blog, I will be presenting my 2021 official summer forecast! I will also have my first installment of the beach & boating forecast, as well as my Memorial Day weekend forecast! In the meantime, enjoy the summer preview this week…it’s looking pretty good to me!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Warmer Days Ahead! 5/10/21

Hello! I hope hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was yet another 50/50 proposition weatherwise around here this weekend. A large ocean storm was just offshore Saturday. This brought cloudy & breezy weather to most of southern New England. More than anything, most folks felt the chill to the air, as temperatures felt more like November, than May.

As I mentioned last Monday, had that ocean storm tracked closer to the coast, it would of gotten real ugly around here. With plenty of cold air aloft, some of that precipitation would of fell in the form of snow!

Fortunately, our luck turned around on Mother’s Day, as the day dawned with deep blue skies with abundant sunshine. After a chilly start, many locations warmed up into the mid to upper 60’s. This was a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Saturday.

Unfortunately, the next storm system was already racing towards southern New England, which brought increasing clouds during the afternoon. The good news was that the rain held off until well after dark, in most cases not until midnight last night!

It happens nearly every spring. We go through a hideous stretch of cold, unsettled weather, seemingly when we all thought we were finally done with winter! You could say it’s somewhat of a right of passage here to summer!

Undoubtedly, there’s always one more period of inclement weather, most times here in May, before any sustained warmer weather finally arrives to stay. Many years, this can take until Memorial Day weekend to straighten itself out.

There are several reasons why this seems to happen on a yearly basis. First, as I mentioned last week, May is still a transition month. It’s still early to be talking about sustained summer warmth. Yes, some years summer arrives early, and we get to enjoy bonus summery weather. However, more often than not, the ocean is still too cold off our coast. This is part of the latent heating and cooling process I mention from time to time in my posts.

During spring, the land heats up more quickly than the ocean. Warm air rises, and is often displaced by the cool dense air rushing in from the ocean. This not only promotes sea breezes, but can also thwart warm air masses from advancing into New England prematurely.

The reverse occurs during autumn. After several months of radiation from the summer sun, it takes longer for ocean to cool off than the land. Therefore, our autumns last surprisingly longer into November, and sometimes even December, compared to locations across the midwest.

In addition, we have to deal with another pest. The decaying Polar Vortex is a like a long lost relative who refuses to leave when the party is over. Dr. Judah Cohen warned us about the possibility of one more appearance of the Polar Vortex during the spring, before it finally goes dormant until next fall.

Increased high pressure in the northern latitudes resulted in one final disruption of the vortex. As the vortex collapsed, it sent pools of cold air down to the mid latitudes where we live. As has been the case most of the winter, the majority of these cold shots were felt across the Great Lakes region, and upper midwest.

Sure enough, many folks in Ohio and Pennsylvania received accumulating wet snow yesterday, on May 9th! As that storm tracked east overnight, it was too warm for snow here in New England, but many received between a half inch and one inch of beneficial rain.

My Twitter friends Brett & William from Denver, Colorado continue to receive late season snowfalls! Denver has a remarkable extreme climate, which can receive snow 9 out 12 months out of the year!

Recent spring rainfall has made for periods of gloomy & cool weather patterns for us here in southern New England. However, the rainfall has been a boom for farmers, trees, reservoirs, lakes, streams and gardeners! We have now caught up with precipitation deficits observed earlier in the year. Unfortunately, northern New England has not received the same beneficial rainfall. Borderline drought conditions persist up in that region.

Just a word of caution. No doubt, we are in much better shape down here in southern New England in regards to drought. However, long term outlooks continue to be shaky. It would only take another dry month or two for us to fall right back into drought conditions. We continue to be in a La Niña pattern (cold ocean water in central pacific Ocean). This typically means warm to hot summers around here, with below average rainfall.

Speaking of summer, we are only two weeks away from my official summer forecast! At this early juncture, I’m still expecting a warmer than normal summer around here. Every summer since 2010 has featured above normal temperatures, and I see no evidence to think otherwise for this summer.

Now, will it be a hot summer? I base how hot our summers are by how many 90 degree days we receive. Average for Boston is 14 days in a typical summer. Over the past 10 years, Boston has averaged more like 15 to 20 ninety degree days per summer, more in the suburbs. This has been quite a stretch for folks who enjoy going to the beach and being outdoor summer activities (I know there are many of you out there!)

Last year, Boston reached 90 degrees or higher exactly 14 times. However, this was not the whole story. Many suburbs and surrounding communities received between 20 and 30 days of 90 degree plus temperatures. It was a deceivingly hot summer!

Logan Airport reached 89 degrees at least a half dozen times. A weak feeble sea breeze prevented the temperature from reaching 90 right along the waters edge on many occasions last summer. I will say this, we received more breaks last summer with dry air masses from Canada, which made it more comfortable than previous two summers.

We are living in a warmer climate. Odds favor a hotter than normal summer. I will go with this theory until I see otherwise.

With recent rainfall, pollen levels have subsided. However, drier weather this week, along with annual blooms, will result in spiked levels of tree and grass pollen. If you suffer from allergies, be prepared for elevated itchy watery eyes, sneezing, caughing and congestion!

This is one reason I enjoy autumn much more. Remember last November we had two full weeks of glorious Indian Summer weather with temperatures in the 70’s, with no pollen to worry about!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect splashes of sunshine mixed with clouds for the rest of your afternoon. It will still be on the cool side, with highs only in the 50’s and low 60’s.

Look for mainly fair weather tonight, with lows mainly in the 40’s, perhaps some upper 30’s in colder rural areas.

Tuesday should feature more sun than today. With increased sunshine, temperatures should be slightly milder, with highs in the lower 60’s. Milder, but still a bit below average. The air may become slightly unstable, so a brief spot shower can not be ruled out. Overall, a fairly typical spring day across much of the region.

It may turn briefly colder tomorrow night. Some locations across the interior may drop to the mid 30’s, with patchy frost. Coastal areas will be chilly too, but no frost is expected inside of Rt 128. Lows will be in the lower 40’s.

Watch for warmer temperatures for the period of Wednesday through Sunday. While Wednesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds and mild temperatures; Thursday looks to be the real pick of the week, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures closing in on 70 degrees.

It may turn slightly unsettled for the period Friday through Sunday. A cold pool aloft may trigger some scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. I’m not anticipating any washouts, but just typical spring weather. Temperatures will continue to be on the mild side, with highs near 70 each day.

Well, that’s about it for now, friends! In next week’s blog, I will be sharing more of my thoughts for our upcoming summer patterns. The following week my official summer outlook will be posted, along with my first beach and boating forecast! In the meantime, look at these milder days ahead as a warm up to our upcoming summer!

Happy Birthday to my brother, John! (May 11th)

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Waves of Rain…5/3/21

Hello! Happy May! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Happy Easter to all Eastern Orthodox Christians who celebrated yesterday! Overall, it was a fairly typical weekend weather wise around here for early May. While Saturday started off on the windy and cold side, the rest of the day rebounded, with mild temperatures returning for the afternoon.

Sunday was warmer, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70’s. Had we received more sun, highs would of made it into the 80’s. I was hoping for more sun yesterday, but a pesky area of clouds blotted out the sun for much of the day across the Boston area.

Hard to believe It’s May! May is an interesting month weatherwise, in the New England region. I like to look at it similar to November in the seasonal calendar. Much like November is the month right before winter begins, May is similar, being the month before summer arrives.

Make no mistake about it, May is still a transition month here in New England! The weather in May is highly variable. Some years, warm temperatures can arrive early, and we can enjoy some bonus summer weather. However, more often than not, May is more springlike, with cool and sometimes rainy weather.

Last year, for example, May featured cold temperatures for the first half of the month. Many locations even received some snow on May 9th! A late rally the second half of the month with warmer than normal weather brought the month close to average temperatures across the region.

Temperatures start off the month averaging close to 60 degrees, but warm up to 70 degrees as we head towards the end of May. Low temperatures average in the mid 40’s at the beginning of the month, to mid 50’s at months end.

We can see a good amount of rainfall in May, with many locations picking up around 3″. This is also variable, as winter patterns can sometimes linger into May, resulting in above average rainfall. We typically can close the book on winter weather this month. However, there have been exceptions!

Leftover cold pockets of air from winter can on rare occasions merge with precipitation, resulting in a surprise late season snowfall. While last year was more like snow squalls due to instability, this was not the case back on May 9th, 1977!

On that date, a bonafied nor’easter brought a damaging late season snowstorm to much of central and eastern Massachusetts, where some locations received well over a foot of snow across the higher terrain of Worcester County! Even locations close to the coast received several inches of wet snow!

Sometimes, history repeats itself. Earlier computer model runs were actually showing a similar type storm coming up for this weekend, for May 8th and 9th! Models were actually showing an intensifying nor’easter passing just south of Cape Cod, with heavy rains and strong northeast winds. As the storm reached peak intensity, computer models were actually showing a flip to heavy wet snow, even in lower elevations, similar to 1977.

Fortunately, computer models have backed off on this scenario playing out. They still show the storm developing, but it’s weaker and further off the coast. I will monitor this situation closely just in case anything changes!

I hope after this threat we can lay winter to rest for good, until next year! A good date to use is the May 10th benchmark. This date is about the latest the atmosphere can sustain any frozen precipitation to fall along the coastal plain.

This date does not apply to higher terrain and mountain areas of New England. A reasonable date for those regions is around Memorial Day. Though snow does not always happen in May, the mountains of New England are still susceptible to late season snowstorms during this month. Just a few years ago the White Mountains of New Hampshire received 2 to 3 ft of snow on Mother’s Day!

Looking back at April, most of New England enjoyed a warmer & wetter than normal month. All four major cities in southern New England averaged above normal, with Boston enjoying 3 degrees above average for April. Boston normally receives about an inch and a half of snowfall. While the suburbs received several inches during a mid month storm, Logan Airport only received a tenth of an inch of snow.

The warmer temperatures not only in March, but especially in April has led to an earlier spring across much of the Boston area this year. It hasn’t been overwhelmingly warm, but warm enough to get the lawns growing, and an earlier leaf out than normal. We are running about one week ahead of schedule with leaf out around our area this year.

With many flowers and trees in bloom, the pollen levels are through the roof around our area! I’m not a pollen expert, but I know several friends who suffer from pollen allergies this time of the year. I even notice myself sneezing more this time of year, probably due to allergies. What I do know, is when we have rainfall, it cleanses the air from tree pollen. For those who suffer, I have good news in the forecast for you this week!

For this May, I’m expecting a continuation of patterns similar to April, wetter & warmer than normal weather for much of New England. Despite a cooler regime this week, temperatures will be warming to above average levels the second half of the month. This is great news for our reservoirs, rivers, ponds and lakes. It’s also good news for lawns and gardeners around the region. A wet May replenishes water into the ground before the hot weather arrives in our region next month.

Starting to put together ideas for my summer forecast! Everything still looks on track for another warm summer around here. However, I must say, there are some questions as to just how hot it’s going to be. There are many factors which go into determining where the hottest weather will end up setting up during any given summer. I will be looking at all these factors carefully as I prepare my forecast which I will present to everyone just a few weeks from today!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week a 4 out of 10.

Guess who’s back?? It’s the wavy weather front!! Expect increasing clouds this afternoon. Ocean winds are now blowing in off of the chilly Atlantic to our east. This will keep temperatures on the cool side through Wednesday. However, if you live west of Worcester or in much of Connecticut, expect much warmer temperatures, with highs in the 70’s in these locations.

In addition, I am watching two waves of rain headed our way. The first will be arriving early this evening. Once it settles in, it’s going to be a soaking rainfall overnight, with many areas receiving close to an inch of rain. Winds off the ocean will make it feel cold & miserable.

Expect damp and chilly weather to slowly taper off during tomorrow morning. Temperatures will continue to be cool along the coast, with highs only in the upper 40’s and low to mid 50’s, depending if we see any sunshine. Skies may brighten during the afternoon, and there may even be a few breaks in the clouds, but don’t expect too much sun tomorrow.

Shifting winds will bring somewhat milder weather to the region tomorrow night through Wednesday. However, another storm tracking west of New England will drag an active cold front through our region. This will bring more waves of rain, along with the chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

As the front clears the coast later Wednesday, this will bring an end to the rainfall later Wednesday. Skies should clear Wednesday night leading to the pick of the week on Thursday.

Thursday should feature mainly sunny skies with a west wind. With winds blowing offshore, expect temperatures to respond, with highs in the low to mid 60’s.

With clear skies and light winds, there is the potential for frost across suburban communities Thursday night. This is another reminder that tender vegetation should not be planted until after May 15th at the earliest in these locations.

A developing storm across the mid Atlantic region will threaten eastern Massachusetts later Friday into Saturday morning. As I mentioned above, latest computer models take this storm further east than previous runs, giving us a glancing blow. Let’s hope this trend continues. If the storm tracks closer to the coast, a more impactful event would be the outcome, with heavy rain, strong winds, and even high terrain wet snow.

Whatever happens on Friday, the storm will pull away on Saturday, leading to clearing skies during the afternoon, with highs in the 60’s.

Right now, Mother’s Day should feature a mix of sun and clouds and mild temperatures. Another fast moving storm will be approaching us on Monday, but I believe it will hold off enough for us to enjoy a pleasant Mother’s Day. Timing can change this far out.

Well, that’s all the time I have for today! In next week’s blog, I will discussing my summer forecast thoughts in more detail. I will also have a new camping & hiking forecast. Something else to look forward to, I will be introudicing the beach & boating forecast around Memorial Day weekend! In the meantime, let’s endure the waves of rain now, so we can enjoy the waves at the beach come summer!

Happy Mother’s Day to all!

Thanks for reading!

Pete