April Showers…Bring May Flowers! 4/26/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! In terms of weather, it was a 50/50 weekend around our region. Saturday was nearly perfect, with sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the low to mid 70’s. A weak coastal low brought cooler weather on Sunday, with a period of rain which was heaviest south of Boston, especially in the morning. Conditions dried out during the afternoon, but remained cloudy across most of the area.

Yes, I believe I have used this same title in a previous post in the past! I assure you, I did not copy and paste! It just seems appropriate with the expected showers of this week, and the arrival of May coming up this Saturday, that I repeat this old saying! Although, with the warmer than normal April this year, it appears the flowers of May have already arrived!

Good news and bad news. The good news was that the storm I forecasted from last Monday was much weaker than anticipated. The bad news is that we really could of used a good soaking in Boston, and especially points north into New Hampshire. Boston continues to run a rainfall deficit of nearly 4″ for the year, so far.

This number in itself is not any reason to panic. However, we are just coming off a fairly extreme drought for our region last year. We had some decent precipitation over the winter, but not enough to give a surpluss of water. The concern is that we are about to enter the drier summer months, running a precipitation deficit, once again.

It’s difficult to say what kind of a summer we’re going to have, in regards to rainfall. Last summer was just awful. Overall, it was a very dry summer, with iradic areas of precipitation. Some places received deluges of torrential rainfall, while others missed out. Overall, it was a very dry summer across most of New England, with large portions of the area under extreme drought warnings.

If we do not receive ample amounts of rain in May, this could easily come back. The good news is that there’s still time for changes. May can be a very wet month, and so can June for that matter. A few good soakings could easily erase any deficit we have.

It’s still early. May is still considered a transition month. Leftover cool air masses from winter can interact with building heat in the south, creating large slow moving rainstorms. This could be our last chance of seeing widespread rainfall associated with seasonal low pressure systems, even nor’easter type storms, until later next fall.

Yes, nor’easters can still occur in May. Snowfall is also still possible across the higher terrain during May. History tells us of major snowstorms occurring in the White and Green Mountains of New England do occur some years. Just last year many had accumulating snow as late as May 9th across New England.

Officially, we can end the snow season in the Boston area after May 10th. It’s very rare to see snow this time of the year, but it’s not entirely out of the question. It has happened several times in the past, as I will explain in my segment of weather history shortly!

As the jet stream begins to retreat up into Canada, the summer patterns begin to emerge across the country. This typically begins in earnest around Memorial Day in New England. At that point, we begin to rely on frontal passages for precipitation through the summer months of June through September. Depending upon the patterns, these frontal passages can bring copious rainfall, or just hit and miss “garden” variety afternoon storms.

Looking at some of the long range computer models, they continue to show a warmer than normal summer coming up for us this year. It’s still a little too early to place numbers on this just yet, as I base how hot the summer is with how many 90 degree days we receive from the period of May through September.

Last summer was a deceivingly hot summer. Statistically, Boston’s logan airport reached 90 degrees 14 times over the course of the summer, which happens to be exactly average. However, very weak, feeble seabreezes prevented many more 90 degree days from occurring.

In fact, Boston had at least a half dozen days, if not more, of high temperatures of 89 degrees at the airport. This means many locations just inland surrounding Boston received between 20 and 30 days of 90 degree days last summer, making it a very hot summer indeed!

It was also a very dry summer! As mentioned above, there were some communities that received some drenching downpours. However, this was the exception, not the rule, as many towns were left high and dry the entire summer into the fall.

It’s hard to believe we will see another summer like that repeat itself. With that being said, nothing can be taken off the table. It appears we are in a cycle of hot and dry summers, & mild and wet winters, the way I’m seeing things.

It’s a double edged sword. Many people, if not all of us enjoy nice summer weather for outdoor activities, most especially on cherished weekends. However, our environment needs the rainfall to replenish our ecosystem, reservoirs for drinking water, and to feed our trees and vegetation. Farmers and gardeners most appreciate plentiful rainfall to grow healthy crops and to maintain lush gardens.

Whatever happens, we are not in control of it! Mother Nature has it already figured out. There’s a reason for drought and floods. It prevents disease, keeps pests at bay, and replenishes life. My official summer forecast will be posted on May 24th this year. Stay tuned!

With it being the last week of April, it’s pretty safe to say winter is over in Boston. As mentioned above, there have been rare exceptions! Overall, I was very pleased with my winter forecast this year! This coming off two disasterous winters.

Back last November, I forecasted a volatile winter, with periods of stormy, cold weather punctuated by stretches of mild, tranquil weather. This actually worked out quite well! I was calling for between 30 and 40″ of snow in Boston back in November. I bumped that up to between 40 and 50″ at my winter solstice update. This wasn’t a bad move, as most of the area in and around Boston received just that, if not a touch more. Officially Boston’s Logan airport recorded 38.6″ of snow this winter. This is about 6″ below average. Being right on the water, Logan typically receives less snow than surrounding areas.

However, with this being another La Niña winter, interior locations received more snow than the coast. Therefore, many communities received much more snow than at Logan airport. As is typical, some locations were actually above normal this winter thanks to a big mid December snowstorm and a snowy February. Metro west Boston seemed to be in a jackpot zone this winter, with several heavy snowstorms.

Worcester, Ma., for example, received a whopping 77.7″ of snow, which is about 13″ above normal. I measured 48.5″ of snow here where I live in West Roxbury section of Boston, which is about exactly average for my area in a typical season.

Don’t forget, we began the snow season way back on the pre Halloween record snowstorm last year on October 30 th, where the Boston area received 4 to 6″ of snow! What a scene that was!

The one downside was the call for a bonanza winter for northern New England. Other than a big mid December snowstorm, many locations finished either at or below normal snow, which is very unusual for a La Niña winter. With that being said, ski resorts enjoyed a solid winter, with very few, if any major meltdowns.

Overall, the call for a mainly below average snow (mainly along the coast), but snowier than last winter, worked out quite well this year! Overall grade: B+ !!

Before I get to our forecast, I wanted to write a quick segment of weather history! Back on April 28th 1987, the Boston area witnessed a very unusual weather event. A very late season nor’easter brought record breaking snowfall to our region, including the coast! Logan airport reported a record 4″ of snow, while surrounding communities saw between 6 and 8″. This was just in Boston. Suburban towns received between 10 and 18″ of wet snow, with even more across higher terrain of Worcester county, where some areas measured 2 ft! It was the grand finale to a very cold & stormy April that year.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect mainly sunny weather for the rest of this afternoon. There will be a gusty wind at times which will make it feel quite cool for this time of the year. Don’t let that deter you from taking a late afternoon or evening walk. Just put a jacket on and you’ll be fine.

Watch for clear and cool weather for the first part of tonight. As you’re taking your evening walk, don’t forget to check out the rising full “Pink Moon” in the eastern sky! Native Americans named it this moon due to the abundant pink wildflowers that bloom this time of the year. It will be cool with lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Clouds will tend to increase later on at night.

Tuesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. It will be noticeably warmer, with highs in the 60’s and low 70’s. There may be a few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but a widespread rain is not anticipated.

Wednesday may start cloudy and slightly damp, but conditions should improve during the day, with breaks of sun and mild temperatures, with highs in the 60’s to possibly near 70. However, watch for building clouds during the afternoon, with the chance of showers developing across the area during late afternoon and evening.

Here come those April showers for both Thursday and Friday! It will not be raining all the time, but a wavy front will mean periods of showers and damp weather from time to time. Timing is too difficult to pinpoint, but expect some much needed rainfall. Light onshore winds could keep temperatures in the 50’s along the coast, but 60’s across the interior.

Happy May Day! Happy May 1st! A strong cold front looks to sweep this inclement weather off the coast early Saturday. This means Saturday should feature breezy conditions under partly sunny skies, with temperatures between 55 and 60, somewhat like today. Though a brief shower can’t be ruled out.

For those who celebrate Eastern Orthodox Easter this Sunday…plan for a splendid early May day! Expect mainly sunny skies, lighter winds, along with warmer temperatures, with highs reaching the mid 60’s across the region. I promised my friend I would work on a nice day for her & her mom…I hope this works out!

Well, that’s about it for now, friends! In next week’s blog, I will have a review for April, and look towards what May will have in store for us. I will also continue to look into our upcoming summer weather patterns. I will also have a new camping and hiking forecast, as well as a pollen outlook. In the meantime, pray for those April showers, so we can keep the pollen levels down, and enjoy those May flowers!

Thanks for reading!

Happy Easter to all Eastern Orthodox friends & family!

Pete

Spring…Will Prevail! 4/19/21

Hello! Happy Patriots’ Day here in Massachusetts & Maine! It was a split decision weather weekend around these parts. Saturday was raw and blustery, as the nor’easter from last Friday lingered off the coast of Massachusetts. Early morning rain and even some snow tapered off to mostly scattered light rain showers. Sunday was the pick of the weekend, as sunshine broke through the clouds and temperatures responded with the strong April sun. Highs warmed up into the lower to mid 60’s across much of the region.

As we all witnessed Friday, yes, it does snow in New England in April! Depending on where you live, sometimes a lot! The nor’easter on Friday brough my area a solid inch and half of snow. It looked like more because at the height of the storm the snow stuck to all the trees, and accumulated quite nicely on car tops and lawns.

Spring storms such as these are elevation dependent. Therefore, higher terrain areas of Massachusetts received the highest totals, with many locations receiving between 4 and 13″ of snow! Worcester set a daily record for snowfall measuring nearly 7″ of snow at the airport.

Further north, many ski resorts in Vermont and New Hampshire saw betweeen 10 and 18″ of snow, making for a very snowy Friday here in the middle of April! I saw a few folks from Twitter head up north for one final day of skiing. Based on some of the video sent back, it was a perfect day for mid February, let alone mid April!

It happens sometimes, seemingly more in recent years, of late season snowstorms in New England, some of which have made it down to the coastal plain. The reality is that it snows in April. While higher elevations can receive deep snowfalls in most Aprils, snow typically falls but melts in coastal zones during this transition month. The best chance for accumulating snow within 10 miles of the coast in April is during the first 10 days of the month. After April 15th, accumulating snow in the city is rare, but not impossible. Just last year we received between 2 and 4″ of snow on April 18th!

Boston’s Logan airport averages 1.5″ of snow in April. This is at the airport surrounded by the ocean. Interior locations can see more. It doesn’t snow every year in April, but every now and again, a major snowstorm will occur right to the coast! We all remember what happened back on April Fools’ Day in 1997, when over two feet of snow fell in the city of Boston!

At this point of the year, most folks are done talking about winter. The early warmth a couple weeks ago had people thinking we were going to cruise right into summer! In most years, this is not the way it works around here. There are setbacks to be had, before we can truly say, “we’ve made it”!

Yet, the wheels are in motion. There’s no denying the change of seasons! No sooner did the snow melt from Friday’s storm, the grass appeared greener the next day, the sky bluer on Sunday, the sun warmer, all along with trees beginning to bloom. They call snow in April “poor mans fertilizer”. After April 15th, it doesn’t matter what tricks Mother Nature has up her sleeve, warm weather is felt as soon as the clouds break apart.

We are now well into the second half of April, heading quickly towards May. Where’s the time going?With the warmer than average temperatures we’ve been experiencing, things are blooming quite nicely out there! I would say we are running about a week ahead of schedule with our spring timetable. Not too far off from normal, just a little ahead of schedule.

I have noticed many trees blooming their flowers. After the flowers come the juvenile leaves. At this rate, I’m expecting full leaf out by May 3rd. Magnolia trees have already blossomed, and many hearty flowers such as daffodils and forsythia have already bloomed, brightening up the landscape!

Latest computer models continue to advertise more chilly air spreading into the northeast late in April and start of May. Right now, I don’t see any sustained warm, nor cold weather in the long range. Computer models have been predicting cooler than normal weather, only to see temperatures average 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal.

Nevertheless, there is the risk of a cool period late April and start of May. This means frost is still a threat for early gardeners across the interior of New England, and typically is still possible through mid May anyway.

After a very dry first few months of the year, it looks like April will average a bit above normal precipitation. This is great news, as the reservoirs, watersheds, lawns and gardens desperately need this water before the heat of summer arrives in the not too distant future.

While we are transitioning from winter to spring, there are a couple more hurdles we need to cross before we can truly say, it’s over. While we may be finished with the snow here along the coast, the same can not be said for the mountains of northern New England, upstate N.Y. and my friends in southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada!

A strengthening storm will track along a frontal boundary later tomorrow and into Wednesday. This will increase the threat of rain here in southern New England as the cold front swings through. Things will be a different story on the “colder” western side of this storm where snow is expected to fall across many of the areas mentioned above, including the Green mountains of Vermont, White Mountains of New Hampshire, and northern Maine, where 4 to 12″ of snow is expected to accumulate.

After a few tranquil days, another spring storm, threatens for second half of the upcoming weekend. This storm, originating from along the gulf coast region, will begin to track up the coast as a late season nor’easter. Now, the American GFS model keeps this storm progressive and tracks it more east northeast, with the brunt of the storm heading out to sea.

The European model, on the other hand, tracks this storm more northerly up the coast, and merges it with another storm, creating a more intense storm, with strong winds, heavy rains, even the possibility of heavy mountain snow…this would be for Sunday. Right now, given the pattern, I’m leaning towards the more phased European model. Expect stormy weather on Sunday.

Last week I spoke of the surge in global volcanic activity. I haven’t seen too many reports of new eruptions, so I’m presuming things have settled down a bit. This is good news if you’re a fan of hot summers. Too much volcanic aerosols in the upper atmosphere block radiation from the sun, and can alter the jet stream, leading to cooler, unsettled summers. I will continue to monitor just in case!

Now time for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

For the rest of your Monday, expect a mixture of sun along with building puffy cumulus clouds. Late in the day and evening, there’s a chance of a few pop up showers moving through. This could interfere with your evening neighborhood walk. There’s even a slight chance of a rumble of thunder, as the air is very unstable aloft. Temperatures will be very reasonable, with highs in the lower to mid 60’s.

Any evening showers will dissipate, leading to clearing skies. It will be on the mild side, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s. There could be some areas of fog in low lying areas.

Tuesday will be the pick of the week! After some early morning clouds, expect lots of sunshine with temperatures responding into the low to mid 70’s!

Tuesday night will be breezy and mild, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

As the storm mentioned above passes to our north on Wednesday, expect windy and mild weather for much of the day. Any early sun will be blotted out by heavy clouds and the increasing threat of showers and possible thunderstorms later in the day as the cold front approaches. Highs will mainly be in the 60’s.

Watch for much cooler and drier weather under windy conditions on Thursday! It will be chilly, with highs only in the 40’s across the interior to near 50 along the coast. Clear and chilly weather Thursday night with lows in the 20’s in rural areas, and 30’s along the coast.

Look for milder weather to move in for Friday and Saturday. Watch for highs near 60 on Friday, and low 60’s on Saturday, with a mixture of sun and clouds.

As mentioned above, a storm is likely on Sunday. Expect cooler temperatures, along with a windswept soaking rain. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast. A good day to stay in & read a book!

Well, that’s about it for today, friends! In next weeks blog, I will take a more in depth look at our upcoming summer season. I will also have my winter review and grade for my winter forecast. In the meantime, winter may be winning the short term battles, but spring and warm weather will eventually win the war!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Spring in New England…4/12/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! You can’t get more of a difference in weather from one day to the next around here. No doubt, Saturday was a taste of summer around here, with sunshine and temperatures soaring into the mid to upper 70’s acrosss the region. Many were thinking let’s just skip the rest of spring and go straight on into summer!

Unless you checked out my forecast last week, you would of been shocked to wake up to a gusty northeast wind whipping in off the Atlantic Sunday morning, along with temperatures 30 degrees colder than Saturday! Ouch!

If you have lived in New England for any length of time, you should know better by now! That anomalous warmth we enjoyed on Saturday is much too early to sustain itself around here. Those were temperatures normal for late June, never mind early April!

Has New England weather pulled the old head fake for spring weather around here? Should we be concerned about when the next time we see 70’s again? Yes, if you enjoy warm spring weather and an early start to the gardening season, I would be concerned.

I’m not too surprised. I have been very skeptical about sustained warmth around here for weeks now. We have been living a charmed life here in New England since the start of March. Many of us experienced a very tranquil March, with well below normal precipitation and warmer than normal temperatures. This also includes zero snowfall in Boston for two straight March’s in a row! This was the first time in recorded history of this happening in Boston!

So what does this mean? Are we going to get punished for the mild, benign weather? After reviewing the latest computer model data, it does indeed appear a major shift is occurring to cooler and unsettled weather for the remainder of April, which could possibly persist into the start of May.

The Greenland block, which has been non existent since the end of February, is suddenly reappearing. When a Greenland block develops, high pressure builds (warm & dry) over Greenland. This in turn forces the jet stream south of New England, resulting in trough of low pressure (cold & wet) with inclement weather especially in coastal New England. In winter, this typically means snowstorms, and below average temperatures. In spring, it typically means rainy, damp weather, sometimes for days on end.

In some cases, low pressure systems can slow down on their approach to the coast, and intensify. On rare occasions, a pocket of cold air aloft can capture the storm, resulting in heavy precipitation, some of which can fall as heavy wet snow, especially in higher terrain locations. As an example, this scenerio occurred with the infamous April Fools’ Blizzard here in Boston back in 1997.

Why am I bringing this up? Well, it just so happens there’s the possibility of a late season nor’easter around here on Friday. At this point, I am not expecting another April Fools’ storm. However, a storm will be developing south of New England on Friday. At the same time a cold pocket of air aloft will be closing off over New England.

Depending on the exact track, and how heavy the precipitation falls, there is a good chance of a mid April snowstorm across the interior sections of New England on Friday, especially across the higher terrain of Worcester county. If the storm really cranks up, it’s not out of the questions coastal areas could see some accumulating wet snow as well. I will be monitoring this situation closely and be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant.

If anything, we need the precipitation! So far, each month this year has featured below average precipitation. If we don’t get it now, many areas could see severe to extreme drought returning this summer, once again!

How is this going to affect our spring timetable? Above average temperatures in March, and well above average temperatures at the end of last week and on Saturday certainly has excellerated the spring timetable across the Boston area. Grass suddenly turned green, forsythia bloomed seemingly overnight, and even trees began to bloom their flowers. This is approximately two weeks ahead of schedule. Grass typically turns green in Boston by no later than April 10th, so that wasn’t much of a surprise. However, it not only turned green, but in many cases began growing, ready for a mow by this weekend. This, along with trees blooming are two weeks ahead of schedule.

The colder weather ahead is going to slow this process down, not stop it. The April sun is extremely strong. In addition, the temperature departures continue to increase this month. This means, even if temperatures are below average for a couple weeks, it’s not winter anymore. Keep the warm spring jacket handy, but you can pack away the winter gear.

Yes, it could be chilly to cold at night with possible frosts, but the days will most always warm to at least the 40’s and 50’s, even in below normal regimes. I wouldn’t be too concerned for flowers, most that bloom now are the hearty variety, and can bounce back. I would be more concerned with flowering fruit trees, for a frost or freeze that can damage the blooms.

For fans of warm weather (and I know there are many) it’s not all bad news! In most springs, we see a two to three week setback. It was just too early for warmth we experienced Saturday. Latent heating & cooling, keeps New England cooler than areas to our southwest, deeper into the spring. As the ocean warms up, the threat of back door cold fronts blasting in from the northeast begins to diminish as we head deeper into May and June.

The good news today is computer models are still indicating a toasty summer around here. This is no surprise, as we have experienced a string of warmer than normal summers here in New England. As is typically the case, we probably are going to have to wait until the end of May for real sustained summer weather. However, once it settles in, I’m expecting another fine summer around here for outdoor activities such as camping, going to the beach or gardening.

The one and only caveat that I can see is the recent surge in volcanic activity. On the island of Barbados, the La Soufiere volcano recently had a massive explosion, covering St. Vincent in hazardous volcanic ash. There have also been an increase in volcanic activity in Iceland.

There’s no doubt if these volcanoes continue to emit ash into the atmosphere, it could alter the jet streams globally. There’s always a chance of decreased radiation from the sun due to volcanic aerosols in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This could alter weather patterns, resulting in cooler & unsettled weather. This is not a forecast, just pointing out that there is a slight chance of this coming to fruition.

Now for your outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week a 4 out of 10.

Expect cloudy weather for this afternoon, tonight and pretty much all day tomorrow. There’s a chance for a splash or two of sunshine, but if it does happen, it won’t last for long. Northeast winds will make it cold along the coast, with highs only in the 40’s. Low temperatures won’t be much lower than the high temperatures, but it will be raw nonetheless. There’s also a chance of spotty drizzle from time to time.

There’s a chance of some drier air working into the region on Wednesday. If this does occur, it would be the pick of the week, with more sunshine, and highs in the mid 50’s.

Thursday may start off with some sun, but watch for increasing clouds during the day. As winds begin to freshen from the northeast again, temperatures will be hard pressed to reach 50.

A storm system diving out of southern Canada, may combine with another off the mid Atlantic coast to bring us a stormy Friday. If these two storms do indeed merge, there is the possibility of a late season snowstorm across higher elevations of Worcester county and the Berkshires of western Massachusetts. It’s tough to say exactly how much from now, but the potential does exist for 6+ inches of snow in these areas. Otherwise, expect rainy and cold weather Thursday night into Friday.

As mentioned above, it’s not out of the question that lower elevations even closer to the coast sees accumulating wet snow on Friday. Right now, I’m not looking for anything serious, but we do have to monitor this storm to see how it evolves in future computer model runs. I have seen many late season surprises here in New England. Just last year Boston area saw 2 to 4″ of wet snow on April 18th.

Whatever happens on Friday should clear out for a sunnier and milder day on Saturday, with highs in the 50’s. Clouds will be on the increase once again on Sunday with highs in the low 50’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know how long our cool & unsettled weather pattern will persist for. I will also take another look at our spring timetable, as well as keeping an eye on those volcanoes! In the meantime, be patient, spring will eventually arrive in earnest here New England…wink, wink!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Two Steps Forward…One Step Back! 4/5/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Easter Sunday, for those who celebrated! Due to old school calendar differences and other beliefs, Greek Orthodox Easter will be celebrated on May 2nd this year!

Overall, it was a glorious weekend across most of New England. Saturday started out chilly, but warmed up into the mid 50’s during the afternoon. After another chilly start on Sunday gave way to a pleasant afternoon, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, temperatures warmed up to the mid to upper 50’s during the afternoon.

Despite the cold start to April, so far, the weather has featured mainly dry conditions, similar to the way March played out. The big question moving forward, is will April follow suite and continue the warmer than normal trend with below normal precipitation?

Looking at the latest computer guidance, I’m becoming increasingly skeptical of a warm, dry April for us here in New England. Out of all the seasons, spring can be the cruelest here in New England for sure! Just when you think we’ve closed the book on cold, damp weather it shows up again like an old shoe!

Nothing is set in stone, here. Computer models have been shifting solutions from one computer run to another. This means there’s a lot of variance, and any one computer model solution can verify. As of this morning, computer models are indicating mainly dry with temperatures running somewhat above normal around here for the next 7 to 10 days.

However, certain teleconnections tell me otherwise. Upper air patterns are showing a “omega block” developing. They call it an omega block because the jet stream pattern looks like the Greek letter omega in the atmosphere. How this transpires to us here on earth depends where you live.

Omega blocks typically set up with a trough of low pressure (cold & wet) along the west coast and east coast. A big ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) builds across the center of the nation. This pattern can stall, leading to cold and rainy periods here in New England, while it can be sunny and warm as close by as Ohio. Sometimes, if there is enough cold air funneling down from eastern Canada, snow can actually become involved here in New England!

In fact, a storm currently south of Nova Scotia has actually been retrograding west into New England last night and today. This has led to close to 6″ of snow falling in Caribou, Maine last night, and wet snow falling across the interior of Maine today. So far, the storm has only brought cloudiness and gusty winds for us here in eastern Massachusetts today. I do not expect anything more than a few sprinkles out of this storm down here.

This is a good example at what these patterns can bring. The chances for accumulating snowfall in Boston decreases significantly after April 10th. It’s low this time of the year anyway, but becomes even lower after the 10th. This does not mean it can not happen! Just last year, many areas around Boston received between 2 and 4″ of snow on April 18th!

For higher terrain areas of New England, this excludes you! Anywhere above 2000 ft snowstorms can happen this time of year, and in some cases heavy snowfall can occur even into May! Just a few years ago the White Mountains of New Hampshire received a massive snowstorm on Mother’s Day weekend, where Mt. Washington recorded 33″ of snow!

On the flip side, if the Omega block develops in a slightly different configuration, with the trough over the middle of the country, and out in the North Atlantic, New England can sometimes enjoy day after day of sunny, warm weather with little if any chance of rain.

With computer models still unresolved in their solutions, we will monitor the evolving pattern and have updates as warranted. There still is a chance this too blows over, and spring arrives full bore. Though, I’m skeptical.

I understand everyone is itching for consistent good weather. But you have to understand it’s still very early in the season. Due to our latitude, New England typically does not receive a 6 to 8 month warm season. This is more typical for the Carolina region to our south. Our true warm season, summer, typical runs from June through September. Can these cycles vary? They sure can! Especially in recent years, seasonal shifts has meant warm season runs from June through October, and in some cases even November.

Notice I’m starting the warm season in June. This means we are still about two months away from the beginning of our warm season. Yes, in some years, it can begin in May, but this the exception not the rule. Cold ocean temperatures can delay consistent warm weather from arriving here in New England.

Forget about what happened in March, that was an anomaly. The weather in March was a direct response to the demise of the Greenland blocking and a stronger stronger Polar Vortex. This in turn brought a warmer & drier southwesterly flow into much of New England which persisted throughout much of the month. Believe it or not, this was still part of the winter pattern. If you’re a snow lover in Boston, consider yourself very lucky this wasn’t the predominant pattern throughout the entire winter! Undoubtedly, it would of been one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record in Boston.

Now that we’ve entered April, spring patterns are beginning to unfold. How this all evolves is still questionable. My concern right now is that some computer models are showing the la Niña in a rapid weakening state. If this is true, it could allow for a trough to develop along the east coast. This would result in periods of cool and wet weather here in New England, with even the possibilty of late season snows in the mountains of New England. We should not be surprised!

Before I get to my forecast, I wanted to remember a historic storm in weather history. Back in 1982, the Boston area was on for a big surprise on April 6th. An unusually late season blizzard unfolded across the area, which brought blizzard conditions all day on the 6th, frequent thunder and lightning, plummeting temperatures and storm force winds! When the storm finally diminished early on April 7th, an astounding one to two feet of wind blown snow was measured across the region! Just as unusual was the bitter cold weather that persisted after the storm moved by, with temperatures remaining in the 20’s for a couple days after the storm passed.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. Will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Brisk today, but improving weather as we move forward this week.

Expect mainly cloudy skies for the rest of this afternoon. It will be brisk along the coast, with highs mainly in the 50’s. I’m not expecting any rain. With the storm off to our east, watch for a possible stunning sunset in the western horizon this evening!

Expect some clouds to persist overnight, but no precipitation is expected. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 30’s and lower 40’s.

Watch for variable clouds & dry weather for the period Tuesday through Friday. It won’t be totally cloudy, so expect periods of sunshine too! Temperatures will be warmest across the interior, where they may see highs in the lower 60’s, while it should remain mainly in the 50’s along the coast. Nighttime lows will mainly be in the 30’s and 40’s, coldest across rural areas, warmest in urban areas.

Confidence for the forecast this weekend remains below average. It’s possible we remain dry as a storm passes south of our region. However, some computer models gather this storm much closer to New England, bringing an April nor’easter to our region. This would mean periods of heavy rain and gusty winds, along with chilly temperatures, especially as we head into Sunday. My recommendation would be to check with your local forecast during the course of the week for updates concerning the weather for this upcoming weekend.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have an update on our spring timetable. I will also see what the latest computer models are saying about our upcoming summer. In the meantime, we’ve already taken two steps forward, be prepared to take a step back! Welcome to spring in New England!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

April…Starts Cold! 3/29/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a split decision weatherwise. Saturday was a glorious early spring day, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, and mild temperatures. Sunday was the exact opposite, with heavy rain arriving during the early afternoon, and continuing into the evening. Temperatures were cooler, but still plenty warm enough to keep the precipitation all liquid. Not too many complaints were heard, as March has been a predominantly a dry and warm month.

I apologize for the late post today! My priority is to write my weather blog each Monday, and also when a storm threatens. However today, work commitments prevented me from accomplishing this goal.

Hard to believe we are closing the book on March in just a couple days! As far as my forecast goes, this was an awful call! Who would of ever believed Boston would see their second March in a row without any snow accumulation! In fact, this was the first time in recorded history that this has happened. Originally, I had planned on near normal snowfall in Boston, which typically is around 9″, more in surrounding areas.

Along with the lack of snowfall, much of the region received below average precipitation. Yes, it poured in many locations yesterday, but that was just for a few hours. Most of the month featured sunny and dry weather.

It was also a warmer than normal March. Again, this was punctuated by brief cold blasts. As quick as these cold shots arrived, they retreated back into Canada. This left us with many more warmer than normal days, compared to cold. I was thinking it may of been close to average, but Mother Nature had other ideas!

I’m not quite ready to wrap winter up just yet! Though many folks have already kicked winter to the curb, I have lived long enough to see Mother Nature pull some crazy shenanigans around here! This is especially true the first 10 days of April, and some years beyond! Just last year, Boston received 2 to 4″ of snow on April 18th, and snow showers on May 9th!

How is this April looking, weatherwise? Overall, it looks warmer than it did last year. However, the devil is in the details. Already, last year is looking somewhat similar to this year. Last March was similar to this March, warm and dry, with no snowfall. Could the pattern reverse to cold and wet this April?

Looking over long range computer models, April could start off on the cold side here in New England, but most indications are showing building warmth across much of the country, east of the Rockies this April. In addition, computer models signals show a continuation of abnormally dry conditions here in New England.

I’m pretty much in agreement with this assessment. However, we must keep a careful eye on late season blocking up in Greenland. These types of patterns at this time of the year can foul up an otherwise good spring.

Dr. Judah Cohen was also hinting at one last Polar Vortex disruption, before the vortex dissipates for the summer season. If this occurs, we could see some unusual weather the first 10 days of April. It’s not a lock, but it’s not like we haven’t seen this before.

Some computer models are indicating chilly weather will persist the first week of April. If a Greenland block develops to its potential, the threat of a late season winter storm can not be ruled out here in New England.

Back in 1982, Boston saw a fierce blizzard with bitter cold temperatures and thunder & lightning, on April 6th. Then again back in 1996, we saw very unusual April weather when back to back nor’easter’s struck the region on April 8th, then again on April 10th.

Last week I spoke about the severe nor’easter we experienced on this date back in 1984. Today I’m going to chat about another historic storm…the granddaddy of all April storms which occurred on April Fools’ Day back in 1997.

This was a historic blizzard, which slammed eastern Massachusetts hard, with between 2 and 3 ft of heavy wet snow falling! This storm also featured frequent thunder and lightning for several hours in a row! I measured 28″ of snow here in West Roxbury, with Milford Ma. about 20 miles to our southwest recorded the highest total of 36″ of snow. This may of been once in a lifetime event, but Mother Nature always seems to find a way to surprise us!

Now that April is nearly here, it’s time to talk about spring in earnest! While April is still an early spring month, this is the time of year when things begin to blossom. As mentioned before, spring is slowly making progress from south to north. Here in New England, spring arrives first in southwest Connecticut, and along the south coast of New England, then eastern Ma. before slowly spreading inland.

The first thing you are going to notice is the birds singing in the morning. This has actually been occurring for a good month now. The next thing to keep an eye on is the grass turning green, and beginning to grow. As the solar radiation increases, this will occur nearly overnight. By this time next week, the grass will be green in many neighborhoods around Boston. Green up will then slowly spread north, reaching southern New Hampshire by the middle of April.

Forsythia will begin to brighten up the landscape, as well as Magnolia trees beginning to bloom by mid April. What would a spring timetable be without mentioning our little peeper friends! These are actually little frogs that reside in swamps and ponds, and have been “peeping” for a few weeks now!

Next week, I will feature part two of my spring timetable planner here in New England! In the meantime, you can expect mild weather for the next two days, followed by rainy and cool weather on Thursday, then a blast of unseasonably cold air for Friday and Saturday. It’s still much too early to be planting anything in the gardens locally.

The Boston area can still experience sub freezing temperatures through the middle of April. It’s less frequent than it used to be, but it still does happen on occasion. If youn live outside of Rt 128, you’re not out of the woods until after mid May!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect fair and chilly weather for your overnight, with low temperatures dropping into the 20’s and low 30’s in most locations.

Tuesday will feature mainly sunny skies, with high temperatures near 60. This is still about 10 degrees above average.

Clouds should be on the increase Tuesday night, and it won’t be as cold as tonight, with lows remaining in the 40’s.

Watch for deteriorating weather for Wednesday. While it may start off with some breaks of sun, clouds will thicken during the day. Late in the day, rain will likely develop. It will be breezy and mild, with highs warming well into the 60’s.

A dynamic storm will be tracking through New England Wednesday night into the first part of Thursday. This will bring heavy rains across our area, along with gusty winds. As the cold front sweeps through on Thursday, expect the rain to taper off by early afternoon. I believe the home opener for the Red Sox should get the game in.

It will be turning windy and cold later Thursday. Not baseball weather at all! In fact, there could even be some snow flurries passing through the region later Thursday. And that’s not an April Fools’ joke!

For my friends who live in western N.Y. Ontario, Canada and southern Quebec…watch out! This could turn into a major winter storm, with heavy wet snow and possible power outages! If the track goes further east, western and northern New England could wake up to a Winter Wonderland Thursday morning as well!

On the backside of this storm, it will turn unseasonably cold around here. Expect windy and cold weather on Friday. The early April sun will help temperatures warm close to 40 degrees during the afternoon, but that’s after low temperatures in the 20’s Thursday night.

Expect similar temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning. There will be a slow moderation in temperatures Saturday afternoon under mainly sunny skies with a few clouds later in the day.

Right now, Easter Sunday is looking like a nice day, with sunny skies and temperatures between 55 and 60.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have another segment of our spring timetable. I will also look into our coming spring patterns, and take another peak into summer. In the meantime, let’s hope Mother Nature does not have any jokes planned for us this year!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Spring has Sprung…But Will it Last? 3/22/21

Hello! Happy spring! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, you couldn’t of asked for a better first weekend of spring, around here! The weather featured nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, with both days seeing temperatures in the low to mid 60’s. The exception was right along the immediate coast, where a light seabreeze kept temperatures in the 50’s.

It’s not many years when New England enjoys spring weather, when the calendar actually says it’s spring! More often times than not, where dealing with some sort of nor’easter, cold winds, or damp weather. It was just last week we were bundled up with temperatures barely reaching 30 degrees!

Yes, it’s March in New England, where the old saying from poet Mark Twain “if you don’t like the weather in New England, just wait a minute, and it will change,” holds true! It may not be exactly a minute, but the changes within 24 hours can be extreme! March is indeed fickle, as the seasons clash against each other, with spring trying to advance north, and winter refusing to give up real estate to the south!

While wild fluctuations in temperatures has been typical for March, storminess and precipitation has not! March is typically one of our wettest months of the year, which includes a good bit of snowfall across the region. So far here in Boston, it’s been a big goose egg…zero accumulation of snow. It hasn’t been much better across ski country either, where March is typically a very snowy month up zero. So far, they have received much below average snow up there too.

In fact, Boston did not see any snowfall last March, either! If no snow falls for the rest of this month, it will be the first time in recorded history with back to back March’s with zero snow accumulation in Boston history. Now, March is not January, but it can be a very snowy month in our region, so this would be noteworthy for sure.

However…this is New England after all! I have seen big snowstorms at the end of March and beginning of April many times in my life. Despite the glorious weather we are experiencing today, and for much of this week for that matter, Mother Nature can still throw us a curve ball or two!

It’s rare we go from spring straight into summer without a few setbacks. We did have a beautiful spring a couple years ago, then again back in 2012. Last year was an absolute train wreck as far as spring weather goes. Last March was similar to this month, warm and dry, with no snowfall.

Everything changed in April, as a massive Greenland block developed sending unseasonably cold air towards New England, along with late season nor’easters which included accumulating snowfall in Boston, as late as April 18th!

This unseasonable cold snap continued into the first 10 days of May when Boston saw a trace of snow on May 9th with morning snow showers falling in the city. Many interior locations actually received accumulating snow on that day! Thereafter, the pattern relaxed, with more seasonable spring weather overspreading the region. Still, the freezing temperatures delayed springs arrival until late May last year.

What am I expecting for spring this year? Well, we are in a warmer climate overall right now, so that factors into the forecast. Despite this fact, I’m still not expecting us to waltz through spring with 60’s and 70’s everyday without a few setbacks.

Ocean temperatures continue to be at their seasonal lowest levels, only sitting around 40 degrees off our coast. Wind direction makes all the difference in the world this time of year. East northeast winds means cold & damp weather conditions this time of year. Switch the wind direction around to west southwest and you have weather like we experienced over the weekend, even better sometimes!

With all that being said, I am not expecting a repeat of last April. Long range computer models are indicating a warmer than normal April, with near normal precipitation. Before we get there, there could be one more hurdle we need to jump as we close out the month of March and the start of April.

Computer models have been showing a deep trough (cold & stormy) developing across the eastern part of the U.S. as we close March. Some computer models are also indicating a low pressure tracking from the Tennessee Valley just to just south of New England. If this occurs, we could be looking at one more chance for snow before the end of the month. This is all speculation at this point, but it would not shock me if this verified.

Back in 1984, the Boston area experienced a severe spring storm on March 29th, with hurricane force winds, heavy icy wet snow, extensive tree damage along with widespread power outages. I will never forget watching a 60 ft pine tree toppling down right in front of me and lifelong childhood friend Tom Donahue!

I don’t see such an extreme event occurring, but one never knows. The atmosphere is random, and an extreme event can happen at anytime.

Right now, the remainder of spring looks to feature warmer than normal temperatures. As mentioned above, it won’t be warm every day, but the overall average for the three months will be warmer than normal.

So the question of the blog, spring has sprung…but will it last? Yes, I believe spring has sprung, and is largely here to stay this year. With the ongoing La Niña, Greenland blocking will be less likely this spring. It’s entirely possible the atmosphere was more in line with the seasons this winter, as most of the winter featured a Greenland block, and has since diminished.

This would set up this summer nicely for those who enjoy warm to hot summers. It’s a long way off, but early indications are showing the jet stream retreating far to the north, with another hotter than normal summer for much of the country, especially focused across the center of the country.

If things work out well, New England could be in the perfect spot with occasional breaks from the heat and humidity arriving from our friends in Canada from time to time. My summer forecast does not get posted until May 24th this year, but at this early juncture, it’s looking like another great summer for outdoor activities including hiking, camping and going to the beach!

With the warmer temperatures, spring ski season has arrived to many resorts across New England. Many folks enjoy skiing this time of year. It’s the best of both worlds! You can enjoy the warm temperatures of spring, while skiing on soft snow of winter!

If it gets too warm, conditions can become a bit slushy. These type of conditions typically don’t arrive until April up north. This year, temperatures have warmed quickly, leading to spring ski conditions arriving a bit earlier than normal.

Nonetheless, many resorts still have plenty of snow on the slopes. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10 if you plan on doing some spring skiing. Temperatures will warm into the 50’s to near 60 this week, except 40’s across the higher elevations. There could be some rain on Friday, so I would try and avoid that day. This will be my last ski report of the season…see you in Novemeber!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect full on spring conditions this week!

Look for mainly sunny and very mild weather for the rest of this afternoon. There may be a weak seabreeze blowing along the coast, within 5 miles of the coast, you can deduct 5 to 7 degrees. Otherwise, watch for temperatures in the mid 60’s across the region. A great evening for a walk in the park, along the beach, or right in your neighborhood.

Expect mild temperatures overnight, with fair skies, and lows mainly in the 30’s and low 4o’s.

Tuesday should feature more sun mixed with some clouds. Temperatures will continue mild, with highs in the 50’s and 60’s.

Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday night. There could be some drizzle or light showers late at night into Wednesday morning. Thereafter, Wednesday will feature more clouds with mild temperatures, with highs in the 50’s to near 60.

Skies should partially clear allowing for more sunshine on Thursday. If we see enough sun on Thursday, we could be talking 70’s for the second time this month!

The warm weather may continue into Friday. However, an approaching cold front will mean gusty southerly winds, and the risk of some showers and possibly scattered thunderstorms. With the clouds and winds, temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler from Thursday, but still well above average for the date.

Expect cooler weather on Saturday, but not cold by any means. If you’re up north, there will be a decidedly colder feel to the air. Highs should be in the middle 50’s around Boston, colder north, but slightly warmer south.

As mentioned above, computer models are indicating a potential storm for Sunday. One computer model tracks the storm north of Boston, which would mean mainly rain, and cool weather. However, another computer model is tracking this storm south of Boston. If this track verifies, it could turn into a much more wintery scenario. I will be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a preview of April, and review March. I will have a update of our spring timetable for our area. I will also have a new outdoor spring activity forecast & possibly my winter forecast grade and review. In the meantime, enjoy the spring weather, it’s not every year we get to say this!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winters Last Hurrah? 3/15/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After last weeks spring tease, winter returned with a vengeance over the weekend! Saturday was sunny and brisk, with temperatures some 20 degrees colder than Friday. Sunday was similar, but an arctic cold front came charging through the region late in the day, bringing with it strong winds and scattered snow squalls.

Strong winds sent temperatures plummeting last night…and this morning we woke up to frigid temperatures all over again!

Welcome to March in New England! So far, temperatures have been behaving much like I thought they would this month. A roller coaster ride of warmth and cold! March is notorious for rapid changes, as the seasons begin to change.

What has been surprising to me has been the lack of precipitation. March is typically our wettest month of the year, with normally over 4″ of precipitation. This also includes frozen precipitation in the form of snow & or sleet. So far, other than the fleeting squalls of yesterday, Boston has not seen any snow to speak of this month. Add this to the snowless March of last year, and this it turning in to quite an anomalous stretch of weather.

While the very dry March is nice for outdoor activities, it does pose some major concerns for fire danger. As the sun heats up, it dries the old leaves out leftover from the fall. Without foliage on the trees yet, theses old leaves turn into a fire hazard! Please be careful not to discard cigarettes or anything other flammable items into brush! There has already been several brush fires in the area this past weekend!

It was anything but snowless out in Denver, Colorado this past weekend! My good friends William and Brett reported on Twitter that the city of Denver received their 4th largest snowstorm in recorded history this past weekend, when 27.1″ of wet snow paralyzed the city! Wow!

Last week, I was concerned about this storm possibly tracking across the country and turning into a nor’easter for us here in New England. Well, it still looks like it’s going to track across the country, but because of a large block in Canada, most of this storm is going to get sheared apart, and get forced well south of us this week. Lucky for us, as there is more than enough cold air to have made that storm snowy.

So the snow drought continues…but for how long? Another storm will develop in the the Colorado Rockies region midweek and eject eastward later in the week. Right now, this storm could maintain some strength, and track just south of New England later Thursday and into Friday.

Early indications show it to be too warm for snow at the start. However, as the storm tracks south of the region, it may drag in just enough cold air to change the rain to snow later Thursday night into Friday morning.

This does not look like to be a major storm. However, I can see it possibly turning into something similar to what we experienced the day before Halloween, when the Boston area received 3 to 6″ of snow.

After all, it still is March, and Boston does average approximately 9″ of snow in a typical March. This doesn’t mean we see this much snow every March. For example, back in 2018 Boston saw nearly 2 ft of snow, while last year the city recorded zero snowfall!

Boston meteorologist Eric Fisher tweeted out last week that the city has never had back to back years with zero accumulation in March. We are certainly pushing the limit here! With last year seeing no snow, and already half of this year no snow, it’s getting into uncharted territory. There’s still plenty of time to go in the month. However, if we miss the opportunity for snow later this week, there is a good chance for no more snow for the rest of the month here in Boston.

Fisher also displayed a chart which showed how Boston’s snowfall significantly begins to decrease the last 10 days of the month. This does not mean we are totally out of the woods! As you know, we have seen blizzards in Boston even within the first 10 days of April! These are just averages showing that the chances for a major snowfall is much less after the 20th of March. It makes sense, by that time it’s spring after all!

Speaking of spring, I’m sure many of you are counting down the days to this Saturday, which happens to be the spring equinox! Yes, spring officially arrives this Saturday morning at 5:37 AM. On this day, both daylight and darkness are of equal time.

From this point forward, radiation will continue to increase as the earth tilts closer to the sun on its axis. This means all the good things people look forward to after a long winter begins to commence! As it warms up, the first thing you will notice is the grass beginning to turn green. In most years, this happens in Boston the first week in April, depending upon weather conditions.

Next thing you will see are hearty flowers such as daffodils blooming. These flowers look delicate, but in many cases can withstand cold temperatures and even a late season heavy wet snowfall! You will also notice the bright yellow forsythia beginning to bloom across the region.

Thereafter, you will notice the trees beginning to bloom in Boston the last 10 days of April, first week of May. Full leaf out is typically complete by Mother’s Day, though there have been some exceptions. Leaf out does not occur until around Memorial Day in northern New England, even early June in higher elevations!

In most cases, it’s still too early for gardening in the Boston area until after mid April. Even then, only certain things can be cultivated. Frosts and freezes can still occur across inland locations pretty much through April, even the first 10 days of May.

Yes, it’s a slow process here in New England. Back door cold fronts sweeping in off of the cold Atlantic can delay spring from arriving in our region as much as one month compared to other parts of the country. Some years, we can go straight from a winter chill, to summer heat, and skip spring altogether!

After this week, there are indications of a strong ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) building across the eastern part of the country for the last 10 days of March, even the start of April! If this verifies, spring could come charging into New England certainly much more quickly than last year!

The bottom line, for folks who enjoy springtime weather and warmer temperatures, this is a pattern that could bring a smile to your face, and an early spring!

I will continue with my ski and snowboarding outlook through the end of March. I saw many ski resorts are planning on staying open until April 18th. I hope this is true, but a warm spell at the beginning of April could mean earlier snowmelt than recent years.

For this week, I’m rating ski conditions an 8 out of 10. Mostly dry up north, but temperatures should remain cold enough to maintain the snow pack. Strong March sun should make it comfortable to be on the slopes most days this week. After today, look for temperatures to warm up into the 30’s and 40’s across the north country.

Unfortunately, the unusually dry March will persist at least through this week, with little new natural snowfall. Some resorts may receive an inch or two tomorrow night and early Wednesday. Many resorts did report several inches of wind blown snow yesterday as heavy snow squalls fell in the mountains.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Watch for very cold temperatures for the rest of this afternoon, possibly the last very cold day of the winter? Temperatures will remain in the 20’s, along with a biting wind at times. Not the best evening for a walk, but with the extended sunlight, it’s certainly doable!

Expect fair and cold weather tonight, with lows dropping into the teens and 20’s.

Our brief cold snap will begin to retreat back up into Canada tomorrow. After a cold start, it will feel a lot nicer tomorrow afternoon, partly due to lighter winds. But temperatures should also moderate back up into the lower 40’s during the afternoon.

A weak system will be tracking through New England tomorrow night and may bring some light snow to the region late tomorrow night and early on Wednesday morning. I wouldn’t expect anymore than a dusting to one inch of accumulation.

Temperatures will continue to moderate later Wednesday…Happy St. Patrick’s Day! There will be more clouds around, but temperatures should warm up into the upper 40’s. There’s also a slight chance for a few scattered showers, but a washout is not anticipated.

A storm system will be approaching southern New England from the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. After some early sun, clouds will be increasing during the day. Later in the day, rain will be appraoaching the Boston area, and should be here for the evening commute.

This doesn’t look to be a big storm, but as the storm passes south of New England Thursday night, it may drag in just enough cold air to be able to change the rain to snow from north to south very late Thursday night into early Friday morning. This could lead to slippery road conditions for your Friday morning commute.

This is a tricky situation. As the storm nudges north, the heavier moisture may make it into southern New England, as the cold air pushes in from the north. This reminds me very much of the pre Halloween snowstorm we had in Boston last year, when 3 to 6″ of snow fell. It’s possible a strip of moderate to perhaps briefly heavy snow develops across the region, especially along the Mass Pike points south. Let’s go with 2 to 4″ perhaps 3 to 6″ if the changeover happens sooner. If there are any changes, I will be sure to update everyone!

Whatever happens, it should be over by midday Friday with clearing skies later in the day, with highs in upper 30’s and very low 40’s if we see any late afternoon sunshine.

Expect mainly sunny skies for your first day of spring, and highs near 50!

As high pressure builds south of New England, expect winds to turn more southwesterly on Sunday, which could push temperatures up close to 60, under sunny skies. A seabreeze could keep it close to 50 along the coast. Even warmer weather could be on tap for us next week. Welcome to spring!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will have a more in depth look into our spring weather patterns coming up this year. I will also look into some of my early indications for the upcoming summer. Why not? There will also be a spring ski & snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, will we allow winter have one more last hurrah? Technically, it’s still winter!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Taste of Spring…Enjoy!

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Temperatures definitely sided towards the wintery side across New England, although there was no precipitation to speak of.

Both Saturday and Sunday featured deep blue skies, and nearly 100% of the possible sunshine. It was a fantastic weekend to enjoy all outdoor winter activities including skiing, snow boarding, pond hockey and winter hiking!

With the winter season waning, these outdoor winter activities will soon be changing, replaced with outdoor spring activities such as canoeing on a river, spring hikes and walks, gardening and camping.

However, this is very weather dependent, and many years springtime weather does not cooperate here in New England.

Last year for example, March was warm and dry. Many believed we were done with winter cold, and thought a beautiful spring was on the way. My goodness, did things change for the worse for all of April and half of May! Out of all the months of the year, I believe April is the cruelest.

You know in March, it’s still pretty much winter, so whatever spring weather we get, you consider it a bonus.

When April comes around, you think the worst is behind you, and you dream of flowers blooming, grass turning green, and warm temperatures.

That still may be the case this year, but it was anything but this last year! A very late season Greenland block developed, forcing unseasonably cold and damp weather south into New England for nearly the entire month. This cold weather extended all the way into the first half of May, when we even saw snow showers in Boston on May 9th!

As mentioned above, April was no bargain, as the region saw accumulating snowfall as late as April 17th! Everything was severely delayed, including grass turning green, flowers blooming, and trees flowering for leaves.

It’s a very tricky time of the year weatherwise for eastern New England. Many are chomping at the bit for nicer weather, and are more than ready for full spring conditions to overspread the region.

Unfortunately, this is typically not the case in our part of the world. I would say out of 10 spring seasons, only about 3 out of 10 or 30% of the time do we really enjoy a full spring season, with all the good things it brings.

Why are we tortured so much here in New England? Well, there are a couple reasons. Latent heating and cooling is the main culprit. Oceans take longer than land to heat up in the spring. With warm air rapidly rising from the land, we are more susceptible to endure chilling sea breezes along the coast.

Because of our latitude, and the influence of the Labrador current, our springs tend to be delayed than other parts of the country. Even as close by as Connecticut, spring arrives earlier than eastern Massachusetts. So close, but yet so far!

In late summer and fall, the reverse occurs. This is where we make up the difference! At that time we are enjoying milder weather deeper into the fall than people who live across the interior parts of western New England and New York state. Milder ocean temperatures tend to protect us from early season cold & snow during November, and even into December in most years.

It’s all relative. Seasons do tend to balance themselves out. It just appears much longer than what it really is, mainly because many would like to see the warm weather arrive earlier, as soon as the calendar flips to March for most folks.

On average, March is still a winter month here in Boston. Yes, we can get periods of mild to even warm weather in March, but it typically doesn’t last too long. Last year for example, was a rather warm March, with zero snow! Contrast that to 3 years ago when Boston was slammed with 4 nor’easters, two of which featured very heavy snowfall, even blizzard conditions!

Winter does tend to rapidly diminish after the spring equinox arrives, which is on March 20th this year. However, one can never really let their guard down here in New England until after May 10th. Boston has seen many heavy snowstorms during April, even a few blizzards thrown in there over the course of time.

This is why talk of winter being over here on March 8th is still too premature in my opinion. There’s still a lot of action on the weather maps for me to ring the all clear signal.

Enjoy the burst of spring heading our way this week! Temperatures are going to warm up into the 60’s both Thursday and Friday! Before then, watch for 50’s to start showing up as early as Wednesday. This will be a welcome change to the winter cold we’ve been experiencing here in the first week of March.

As good as this sounds, this is just one of those spring bursts I had mentioned in last weeks post. There are strong indications the pattern is going to turn colder this weekend, and there is the potential of more snow heading our way next week.

High pressure is going to build over Greenland once again. This will force cold air to press down from eastern Canada into New England. Meanwhile, a strong storm is going to be developing in the four corners region.

I was chatting with my friends Will & Brett from Denver, Colorado earlier today. Computer models are indicating the potential of a major winter storm developing in that part of the country this weekend. They are no strangers to winter storms in Colorado. In fact, their snowiest time of the year is typically March and April, sometimes even into May!

As I mentioned, they are no strangers to major winter storms. However, some computer models are printing between 3 and 7 inches of precipitation this weekend! With plenty of cold air around, this could translate into quite a blizzard if it verifies!

Remember, normal snow ratios is 10″ of snow for every one inch of liquid. Ratios can vary wildly depending on what temperature profiles are in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere. Needless to say, we will be following this potential storm very carefully!

It’s this same storm which will eject out of the rockies and begin to track towards the east coast. Now, typical storms originating from this region tend to track towards the Great Lakes and into Canada, bringing mild temperatures and rain to southern New England.

However, this storm may take an unusual track and head east towards the Tennessee Valley. From there, the storm may redevelop along the east coast, and track south of New England.

If this verifies, there would be the potential for a snowstorm for us here in New England. This would be a rare combination of a snowstorm in Denver, then in Boston several days later.

If that doesn’t pan out, there is a chance for a similar system a few days later. There are many pieces of the puzzle here. However, if the Greenland block does its job, it would force these storms to track south of New England, locking cold air in the region, increasing the chances of wintery precipitation.

At the very least, colder weather is going to return to New England, possibly lingering for a couple weeks. I’m not sure how much snow is going to fall here in Boston at this point. Right now, the potential exists for interior locations to see heavy snow, with lesser amounts along the coast. As they say in the weather business…stay tuned!

What about the rest of spring? To be honest, I have more confidence in our upcoming summer than this spring! Early indications are showing yet another hotter than normal summer coming up this year.

When & how summer arrives could be an adventure in its own! We have to get through spring first! Computer models are still struggling with the outcome of March! Right now, I’m sticking with my original forecast of near normal temperatures and seasonal snowfall, which is close to 9″ at Logan airport.

April still looks iffy. Atmospheric scientist Dr. Juda Cohen is indicating the possibilty of one more Polar Vortex disruption later this month. If this indeed occurs, it will mean another volatile April is on the table. I can’t see it any colder than last April. With that being said, true spring weather may have to wait until May this year…which is pretty typical around these parts.

Now for your weekly ski and snow boarding forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Temperatures will be moderating this week, with spring skiing conditions making its first appearance. I do not see much precipitation again this week, however a cold front will slip south of New England bringing colder weather to the north country this weekend, along with the chance of some light precipitation. A larger storm looks to bring accumulating snowfall to ski country next week.

Here’s your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Spring fever grips the region!

Expect mainly sunny and seasonable temperatures for the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will make it up into the low 40’s, but feel warmer in the sunshine. It will be a pleasant evening for a walk.

Tonight will be fair and chilly, but not winter cold felt past several nights. Lows will mainly be in the 20’s.

There may be some early clouds on Tuesday, but I’m expecting skies to partially clear during the afternoon. Temperatures should pop into the 50’s with the help of some strong March sunshine.

Expect mainly fair and noticeably warmer temperatures tomorrow night, with lows mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Watch for springlike weather conditions for the period Wednesday through Friday! Temperatures should reach the 60’s each day, with an outside shot some communities hitting 70 degrees either Thursday or Friday. The only exception are areas right along the coast, that may experience a weak seabreeze. If this happens, temperatures may be 10 degrees cooler in these locations.

A cold front will slowly cross the region later Friday. This will put an end to our early spring encounter. There may be some scattered showers later Friday, but widespread precipitation is not expected.

Watch for mainly dry but colder weather for this upcoming weekend. Saturday will feature temperatures in the low to mid 40s’s, whereas Sunday may remain only in the 30’s!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a more in depth look into our spring timetable. I will also update everyone on the potential for more snow, and another ski and snow board forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the spring appetizer coming up this week, the main course should be arriving soon!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

March…In Like a Lion! 3/1/21

Hello! Welcome to March, and happy first day of meteorological spring! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was quite a gloomy couple days for the last weekend of February.

Saturday began with a bit of wet snow in spots, which quickly changed to rain in most of eastern Mass. Skies cleared out nicely Saturday evening to view the majestic full “Snow Moon” which shined brightly across the countryside.

As quickly as skies cleared, clouds were already increasing overnight, leading to a cloudy and rather cool Sunday across the region. Any rain held off until well after dark last night.

Congratulations! We have officially closed the book of climatological winter! March 1st marks the first day of climatological spring, which is categorized by the three months of March, April & May.

Climatologists break down the seasons into 4 distinct quarters. Statistically, it’s easier to break down the seasons into four three month quarters. Astronomical seasons is based on the position of the earth, in relation to the sun, whereas meteorological seasons are focused on annual temperature readings.

I understand where there could be some confusion with the general public. I also understand why climatologists like to organize the seasons like this.

Overall, winter was about what you would expect in Boston this year. Temperatures did average about one degree above normal, and snowfall was pretty close to average too. One thing that stood out was the lack of extremes. There were no record highs temperatures, nor record low.

December was slightly warmer than normal, but did feature a mid month nor’easter, which brought all of Boston’s snowfall for the month. A little over a foot fell in the city, but many surrounding areas just southwest of Boston received close to 15″.

This same storm brought incredible accumulations of 3 to 4 ft to many ski reasons in Vermont and New Hampshire, when intense snowbands stalled dropping 3 to 4″ per hour snowfall rates for many hours in a row!

All that snow melted the day before Christmas, when a very warm storm brought high dewpoints and a soaking rainstorm on Christmas Day!

Winter took a long break in January, where temperatures averaged above average with below normal snowfall.

An abrupt change in February saw slightly colder than normal conditions, with a couple major snowstorms which brought above average snow to most of New England.

They don’t include it with meteorological winter, but who could forget the record setting snowstorm the day before Halloween last year, when Boston received its largest October snowstorm on record! This does get included in the year end seasonal snowfall statistics.

So far, I have measured 47.5″ of snow where I live in West Roxbury, with Logan airport coming in at 38.4″. This is about where you would expect snowfall to be at this point in the season.

I say up to this point because the season is not over! Meteorological spring may begin today, but astronomical spring does not officially arrive until March 20th. Therefore, it’s officially still winter!

Living in New England, we all know we can still experience major snowstorms around here through March. In fact, there have been major snowstorms, even blizzards recorded around here into April!

I remember a fierce blizzard in Boston back on April 6th, 1982! This was a wild storm with frequent thunder and lightning, whiteout conditions, and over a foot of powder accumulating in Boston. Bitterly cold air lingered for a couple days after that storm, which delayed the melting process,

In more recent times, there was the massive April Fools’ Blizzard back on April 1st, 1997. This not only was Boston’s biggest April snowstorm in recorded history, but also Boston’s third largest snowstorm on record! One year later it was close to 90 degrees on the same date!

Just last year we received a couple inches of wet snow on April 17th! After a warm & dry March last year, April turned cold & wet, and certainly turned into a disappointing spring around here.

Okay, we all know it can still snow this time of year, but we are now entering the time of year when we can receive bursts of warm springlike weather! In fact, March is also the month when we receive the greatest increase in daylight! We are now gaining approximately 3 minutes of light each day.

This will continue until we reach the spring equinox on March 20th. From there, we will continue to increase the daylight at a slower pace until we reach the summer solstice on June 20th. Brighter & longer days are ahead, indeed!

There’s no denying the change of seasons! How we arrive there can be an adventure of its own! Last week I may of been a bit overzealous declaring an early spring to a good friend!

March is the month when temperatures begin to warm up here in New England. Average high temperatures start out near 40 and rise to 50 by months end. As mentioned above, we gain nearly one and half hours of daylight in march! We receive close to 4″ of precipitation in March, some of it which falls as snow.

Computer models are flipping and flopping on outcome for March. When I see this, it tells me there is a lot of variance going on…meaning patterns continue to look quite volatile to me over the few weeks.

Greenland blocking will continue to suppress early thoughts of spring in much of New England. Greenland blocking is when high pressure builds over Greenland. This in turn buckles the jet stream, forcing it south of New England, leading to cold & stormy weather at times.

March can be a snowy month. Boston averages about 9″ of snow in March, more in surrounding areas. Back in 1993 Boston saw almost a whole seasons worth fall in March. Meanwhile, last year, we had zero snowfall accumulation…which is rare!

Given the volatility in the weather patterns, I am expecting at least average amount of snow this March. There is the potential on the table for one good nor’easter this month, which could bring above average snow to the region. This is due to the projected Greenland block to rebuild, cold air still available up in Canada, and warm sea surface temperatures off our coast.

On the flip side, volatility means extremes. This means I am also expecting a few burst of springlike weather to visit us from time to time this month! In other words, it’s shaping up to be quite the clash of the seasons around here this March!

Up in ski country, March is a full winter month. Snowfall is plentiful, and temperatures warm up from harsh mid winter conditions. Many ski resorts received 3 to 5″ of snow this past Saturday. This led to near perfect conditions on the slopes yesterday.

I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Not much natural snowfall, but temperatures will continue to be cold enough for snowmaking to continue. Just be aware, there will be a quick hitting intense cold snap hitting much of the region, especially the north country later tonight and tomorrow.

This will not only bring bitterly cold temperatures, but also very strong northwesterly winds creating dangerously cold wind chill values. There will also be blinding snow squalls overnight into early tomorrow. Maybe a good day to stay in the ski lodge! Conditions will rapidly modify on Wednesday.

Now for our local weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect changeable conditions for the rest of your Monday afternoon…fitting for March 1st. Watch for clouds and rain showers to clear out by later this afternoon. It will begin to turn windy. Early afternoon high temperatures near 50 will begin to fall towards evening.

Listen for the March lion to roar overnight, as winds will be strong and may result in scattered power outages and tree branches to fall. There may be some scattered heavy snow squalls passing through the area overnight, dusting some communities with snow.

Aside from the wind, the big story is going to be the plummeting temperatures overnight! Expect temperatures to fall into the single digits, with wind chill values minus 10 degrees tomorrow morning, Ouch! It may be the coldest feeling morning of the entire winter tomorrow. Even with the strong March sun, temperatures will remain in the 20’s all day tomorrow, from Boston points north. Dress for winter!

Thank goodness this will not last long. The core of the cold air will begin to retreat tomorrow night, with lows in the teens and twenties.

Wednesday will be less harsh, with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will warm up into the 40’s by afternoon, which will actually feel a lot warmer than that!

Unfortunately, the Greenland block will force colder air back down into New England beginning on Thursday and continuing into the upcoming weekend. Expect highs in the 30’s which will be about 10 degrees colder than normal. Temperatures are expected to moderate next week.

Right now it looks mainly on the dry side through the weekend. However, there will be an ocean storm passing east of New England on Sunday. Right now, this storm looks like it will be a miss. However, it would only take a small shift in the steering currents to track this storm much closer to the New England coast. I will monitor through the week and have updates if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a preview of my spring forecast, and spring timetable! I will also have a new ski and snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, don’t let the lion fool you, he’s really disguised as a lamb!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Not as Harsh…But it’s Still Winter! 2/22/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a very wintery weekend for those who enjoy winter activities! After Friday’s storm, Saturday dawned in a blanket of white, with the freshly fallen snow turning the Boston area into a Winter Wonderland!

I saw many families enjoying the snow with activities such as sledding and cross country skiing! It was cold on Saturday, with highs only near freezing with snow flurries falling from time to time.

Sunday was just an outstanding winter day, with a 100% of the possible sunshine! It turned a touch milder in the afternoon, as Boston briefly climbed to just above freezing. It was a wonderful day to get out and enjoy winter activities such as skiing, winter hiking, or sledding with the kids! Overall, the snowpack remained in tact across the region.

I apologize for the lack of updates in regards to the late week winter storm last week. I covered the possibilty of a storm in my post last Monday. It was another tricky storm!

After my post, computer model runs diminished the system, to only a couple inches of accumulation. At that point I had to make a decision whether it was worth writing a post for a snowfall that is easily managed for us at this time of the year.

Even up until wednesday evening, computer models were very wishy washy as to how much snow we could receive in the Boston area. It wasn’t until the event got going Friday morning that there was a possibility that we may indeed receive a bit more snow than many were anticipating. It’s been the trend in recent storms where computer models have not been that reliable, leading many to just wing it on gut intuition.

I contemplated writing an update, but felt it was borderline at best, and that we would of been able to handle it being hardy New Englanders. As it turned out, we didn’t receive the Blizzard of ’78.

However, the steady fluffy snow continued accumulating all day and into Friday night, with bursts of heavier snow at times, making for a very wintery day across the the Boston area, and treacherous travel conditions.

In fact, Boston ended up being the bullseye of the storm, with many communities including where I reside in West Roxbury picking up a very fluffy 7″ of new snowfall! Thank goodness the snowfall diminished during the late evening, or else accumulations could of gotten out of hand!

In the end, a follow up update from last Monday’s post was warranted, even if the storm fizzled out. Friends and family have come to expect an update for planning purposes. Next time I will post the update and not think too much into what the computer models are saying.

Believe me, I was watching the storm very carefully! As the inches piled up, the worse I felt that I hadn’t posted an update! In all fairness, I did talk about the potential for a storm on last Monday’s post…even giving a possible accumulation of 6 to 12″.

Well, here we are. The last week of meteorological winter! Overall, despite a many ups and downs, the winter forecast is going quite well! Original forecast made back in November called for between 30 and 40″ of seasonal snowfall. After reviewing some new data, I bumped this up to 40 to 50″ of snow at the winter solstice. So far, Logan airport has received 38.4″ while I have measured 47.5″ here in West Roxbury. Normal is 44″ at the airport and around 50″ here at home.

So far, we’re running ahead of schedule! The area still has more snow to fall this season, as it’s still only February 22n. Boston’s snow season can easily extend until April 10th. Just last year, we received a couple inches of wet snow on April 17th! And let’s not forget the historic blizzard we received on April 1st back in 1997!

It’s been a very active, snowy winter this year! Much more than the past two seasons, for sure! Close to seasonal, but in all likelihood we will surpass seasonal values this year across much of the region. Worcester has already received close 68″ of snow!

I was speaking with my Aunty Helen the other day, and we were talking about how spectacular the snowstorms have been this winter, clinging to all the trees! She’s not even a fan of snow, but even she could appreciate the wonders of Mother Nature!

I have been reading many comments on Twitter with folks saying winter is over. Don’t fall for this trap! It’s still quite early, and winter still has more surprises in store for us!

Could the worst of the bitter cold be behind us? Yes, the sun is increasing in strength now, and we are headed towards March, so another repeat of the Texas disaster is unlikely at this point.

However, here in New England it’s a different story. Ocean temperatures are at their lowest point of the year, and there’s still plenty of cold air up in Canada. Yes, we are going to get some mild days, but it would not surprise me if we have one or two more significant snowstorms in Boston this March!

Eventually, the seasons will change. Many years, it takes until the official arrival of spring, which is on March 20th to get that going around here. Across the interior and up north, the entire month of March is a full winter month, many times extending into the start of April.

Now for your ski and snowboarding forecast. I will give this week a 10 out of 10! Yes, with consistent cold temperatures over the last several weeks, and several decent snowfalls, this could be the best stretch of ski conditions New England has seen in several years! In addition, many will see several more inches this afternoon, and possibly more light snow later this week. Temperatures will be comfortable to be outdoors too! Enjoy!

Now for our regional outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Watch for a period of rain to move through the area this afternoon. It’s possible we may see some wet snowflakes at the onset of precipitation. Even if this happens, it will quickly change to all rain inside of I95, points east. Rain could fall heavy at times south of Boston this evening.

To the west of I95, there will be a burst of wet snow, which may accumulate a coating to 2″. North & west of I495, will see a period of heavy snow this afternoon, with roads becoming treacherous for a time. Higher elevations could see a quick 5″ of snow accumulate, with 2″ in the valleys.

Whatever happens, will be moving off the coast by 9 pm tonight. Skies should partially clear later at night, with temperatures falling into 30’s. Not too cold, but watch for icy spots nonetheless.

Tuesday should feature a mix of sun and clouds. Another weak system will be crossing southern New England. This could lead to scattered snow showers across the region. It will be on the mild side, with highs in the lower 40’s.

As milder air continues to push into the region, tomorrow night will see more clouds and mild temperatures. Readings should remain above freezing across the area.

Wednesday will be mild, with temperatures approaching 50. This could be the warmest temperature we have seen since early this month. I believe the snowpack is keeping it a bit cooler than what it could be, possibly by 5 degrees cooler.

A series of cold fronts will charge through New England Thursday and Friday. There could be a few snow showers but nothing significant is expected. Temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday, but will turn colder on Friday, with highs only in the low to mid 30’s.

Another fast moving storm will be approaching Saturday. Once again, this storm looks to track west of Boston, bringing a warm surge of air into the coastal plain. This means mainly rain showers here in Boston, but possibly snow showers across northern New England & ski country.

Sunday looks to turn partly sunny & mild, with highs approaching 50 all over again.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a review of February, and preview the month of March. I will also have a update on a possible winter storm for the first week of March. Look for my latest ski and snowboarding forecast! In the meantime, I hear talk of spring, but around here, seeing is believing!

Thanks for reading!

Pete