One Two, Punch! 2/15/21

Hello! I hope everyone is enjoying their long holiday weekend! So far, the weather around here has been pretty uneventful. Saturday was mainly sunny, with high temperatures in the low 30’s. Sunday was somewhat on the gloomy side, with cloudy skies and highs in the lower 30’s. Similar weather continues today, with cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 30’s.

This is not the same scenario across much of the rest of the country. Aside from Florida and the southwest, Mother Nature has unleashed her fury, with record breaking cold weather plunging down into the heart of Texas, Pacific northwest, and the upper midwest. You know if the midwest is breaking records for cold, it must be pretty extreme!

I was chatting with a Twitter friend from Texas yesterday, and she said the weather patterns is something she has never witnessed in her home state. Bitter cold temperatures near zero, with blizzard conditions!

I must say, though I love the weather of New England, I’m fascinating with the climate of Texas. From catastrophic floods, blistering heat waves, droughts and hurricanes, they experience all types of extreme weather!

Though it’s in the deep south, It’s geographic position in the center of the country makes it susceptible to experience direct arctic blasts charging down from the northern plains. In Texas they call these “Blue Northers” or strong northerly winds transporting arctic air from the north into the state.

What happened in this case was historic. Many weeks ago we discussed the Polar Vortex being disrupted and even splitting into several vortices. Atmospheric scientists knew it was happening. The only question was where the vortex lobe was going and when it was going to hit.

Well, as you have seen from the news reports, the arctic outbreak hit this past weekend, with bitter cold and snow all the way to to the Gulf of Mexico coast!

You may ask, Pete, what about New England? Are we going to feel the direct impact of the Polar Vortex. Well, it has gotten a lot colder here in Boston this February. Yesterday ended a streak of 7 straight days it remained below freezing here in Boston.

You could look at the atmosphere as a huge pendulum. What goes up on one side, goes down on the other…kind of like a big see saw. I have mentioned in the past the example of a garden hose. When you shake it, the hose makes big loops of ridges and troughs. The jet stream does the same thing.

For this go around, a piece of the Polar Vortex plunged down from the northern plains down into Texas. The extreme cold air has interacted with warm air and has formed a low pressure system.

This low pressure is going to ride the boundary of very cold air on the western flank, and mild ocean air on the eastern side. Remember the garden hose example I mentioned earlier, the response to the deep trough (cold) over Texas is a big ridge (warm) along the east coast. Due to the trough digging so deeply into the deep south, the ridge is becoming amplified along the east coast. Now, this ridge is not fully on the east coast, but it’s influencing our weather enough to alter the track of the storm, and help bring warm air in at least along coastal locations.

At one point this was looking like a very wintery storm for us here in southern New England. Even as recent as last evening computer models were showing quite a significant ice storm after an accumulation of snow & sleet. However, recent trends have surged even warmer air into our region, resulting in mainly a rainstorm for us here in eastern Massachusetts. I will get into the details of the forecast in a bit.

Had this storm taken a track slightly offshore then up the coast, much of New England would of received a very heavy snowfall on the order of one to two feet.

With the storm tracking through the Ohio Valley, then cutting across central New York state through central New England, the heaviest snows will be experienced on the western and northern side of the storm system. I have Twitter friends that check in on the blog who live in Toronto and Ottawa, Canada. Be prepared for a heavy snowstorm of between 12 and 20″ in your locations! Other locations who may see heavy snowfall is Rochester and Buffalo, N.Y. region.

Here in New England, many of our ski resorts will make out with a surpluss of snow, especially northern locations such as the northern Green Mountains, White Mountains, and western and northern Maine. Areas further south and coastal locations will see a change to sleet and freezing rain, and even plain rain closer to the coast.

I mentioned in my heading about a one two, punch! Yes, we are in a very active pattern. After this first storm goes by, it will intensify in the maritimes, and suppress the jet stream further south. This will allow fresh cold air to settle into New England before the next storm approaches. Latest computer models have trended this storm to track closer to the east coast, more like a nor’easter.

This storm could be more interesting for those who enjoy snow! I say “could” because many things still have to fall into place. A track too close to the coast will certainly mean a change to mix and then rain in coastal areas once again. If the storm trends slightly further east, it would lead to a colder solution, and heavier snowfall for many, even close to the coast.

While computer models have trended colder, they still track it very close to the coast, leading to an eventual change to rain.

A good friend of mine recently asked me when I’m going to start talking about spring? This is a good question! I’m sure many of you have noticed the days are beginning to grow longer, with daylight now extending well after 5 pm! The days will only get longer from here all the way until we reach the summer solstice on June 20th!

With it still being only mid February, it’s a bit too early for me to let go of winter. Depending on the weather patterns, I will begin looking into what spring may have in store for us this year, sometime during the beginning of March.

I can say this, computer models are at odds as to what March will bring. Some are holding on to the Greenland block well into the month, while other break this down, flooding the country with springtime warmth! I will look into this more closely as we approach the start of March.

Now for your weekly ski and snowboarding forecast. I am rating this week an 8 out of 10 for ski conditions. Many ski resorts will benefit from two winter storms this week! Expect snowy weather for northern resorts and and mixed precipitation for southern areas tomorrow. This will be followed by what looks to be a heavy snowfall Thursday night and Friday. Clearing and colder weather for this weekend will lead to spectacular ski conditions for this upcoming weekend!

Time for your local weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10.

Watch for cloudy weather for the rest of your Monday. Temperatures will begin to moderate, with highs in the mid 30’s. Later today, after 4 pm, there may be some light mixed developing across the region. It won’t be much, but it only takes a little to make for some slick roadways.

Looks for heavier precipitation to move into the region later this evening. It may be just cold enough for some sleet mixed in at the onset. This will rapidly change to rain inside of I95 overnight. North & west of I95 could be a bit dicey for a time with pockets of freezing rain with temperatures hovering near 32. Areas north and west of I495 in the hills of Worcester and northern Worcester County in places like Fitchburg & Winchendon, there may be an ice storm overnight, with up to a half inch of ice accumulations on trees. This could lead to scattered power outages in these locations.

Expect the storm to continue with heavy rain in most of eastern Massachusetts tomorrow morning through about midday, then taper off thereafter. There may even be a thunderstorm rolling through the area. Temperatures may briefly warm into the lower 40’s with a gusty southeast wind.

As the storm passes, winds will shift to westerly, bringing colder weather back into the region tomorrow night.

Wednesday will feature brighter skies, with sunshine amidst passing fair weather clouds. It will be colder, with highs only in the 20’s. Watch for a gusty wind which will make it feel colder.

Wednesday night will feature fair and cold weather, with lows mainly in the teens.

Our next storm system will be approaching Thursday. There may be some early dim sun Thursday morning, but watch for clouds to rapidly increase and thicken through the midday hours. It will be cold, and winds will freshen out of the east, northeast.

As the storm approaches, snow will develop from south to north during the mid afternoon hours. This could be critical timing for evening commuters, as the snow could fall heavily at times during the commute time. This could make for a treacherous ride home on Thursday, so be aware of this!

Snow may continue for a number of hours into Thursday night, possibly accumulating up to 3 to 6″ across Boston the way it looks right now. Later at night, the snow should transition to sleet and then change to rain by Friday morning, making for another messy morning commute.

If by chance the snow does not change to rain, this could turn into a 6 to 12″ snow event. By the looks of the latest computer models, the storm should track across southeastern Mass. bringing a change to rain across much of eastern Massachusetts. I will monitor the storm closely during the week and be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant.

Whatever happens, the storm will be progressive, and will be done by midday Friday at the latest. Skies should begin to clear later Friday, with colder temperatures returning.

Right now, the weekend is looking to be fair and on the cold side, with highs in the lower 30’s. Great weekend to enjoy winter activities!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have an update on the status of the Greenland block, and if any more storms our in our future. In addition, I will have a new ski and snowboarding forecast. In the meantime, we can take handle the one two punch from Mother Nature, as long as it’s not a sucker punch!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy Birthday to my niece, Nicole! (February 22nd)

It’s Prime Time for Snow! 2/8/21

Hello! I hope everyone had a great weekend, and enjoyed watching our former super star athlete Tome Brady win his 7th Super Bowl title! Wow! How could the Patriots have let the best athlete in the world go? Oh well, there’s nothing they can do now but congratulate him as he keeps winning more Super Bowls! Even the best organizations make poor decisions.

Hey, our weather has been somewhat of a Super Bowl…if you like snowy & cold weather that is! It all began one week ago today, when a moisture laden nor’easter packed quite a punch across parts of the mid Atlantic and across much of New England.

This storm brought with it strong winds, heavy snow, and coastal flooding. Most areas just north and west of Rt 128 received between 1 and 2 ft of wet snow. Hardest hit areas were the Merrimack Valley where 2 ft of snow fell in a very short period of time!

The City of Boston was also slated to receive upwards of a foot of heavy wet snow, prompting the Mayor to declare a snow emergency across the city. A very last second shift brought mild marine air in off of the ocean, changing the snow to heavy rain right along the shoreline.

The amazing thing about this storm was the tight gradient of nearly no snow right along the immediate coastline, to 5 or 6″ of heavy water logged snow a few miles inland, ranging up to a foot plus just west and especially northwest of the city. Locations as close by as Lexington reported 14″ of snow, while Cambridge only 3″!

Yes, the marine layer moving in off of the ocean caught me off guard, including most profesional meteorologists as well! While computer models handled the snowfall well outside of Rt 128, thermal profiles were dreadful along the coast, including Boston. Most models were showing it being still cold enough for heavy snow in Boston, but the devil was in the details

While it was snowing for a good majority of the storm across the interior locations of Boston, temperatures were just a little too warm at the lower levels of the atmosphere for efficient accumulations, thus our area ended up with 5 or 6″ of water logged slush, instead of 15″ of powdery snow that was anticipated.

After analyzing the storm further, it was clear the storm was not in the right position to give Boston heavy snow. While I was anticipating a wind shift to the northeast, winds remained due east in Boston, modifying the coast just enough to prevent a blockbuster storm.

It was another example on how truly humbling this science can be. Despite what compute models are saying, this may not be the end result you’re looking for!

I know I have mentioned this before, but forecasting snowfall is tricky business, especially if you live within 10 miles of the Atlantic Ocean! There are many variables that can change a forecast at the last minute, leaving you a lot of explaining to do.

In some regards, the exact opposite happened on Sunday, which I will get to in a moment.

After the main surge of the storm moved through, we were left with a stalled upper level low pressure meandering south of New England. This brought mainly cloudy and unsettled weather to the region for the balance of the week.

Saturday was deceivingly nice, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 30’s.

Clouds quietly increased Saturday night, as colder air began to work in from the north.

Sunday began with a thick, gray overcast sky. Just by the look of it, I knew snow was on its way. Indeed shortly after 10:00 am, light flurries began to develop across the Boston area. Within an hour, this quickly escalated into steady snow, which began to accumulate.

Shortly thereafter, waffle sized snowflakes began to fall, leading to even faster accumulations. In some ways, this storm was more dynamically driven than the one earlier in the week.

Very intense bands of snow suddenly developed, and positioned themselves just to the southwest of Boston. If you were looking from the window or out and about, you saw snow accumulating 2 to 3″ per hour in this band! This led to accumulations of between 8 and 12″ across the southwest part of Boston, extending into Norfolk county. As quickly as it began, it was over by 8:00 pm…a very fast mover that packed a punch!

Many commented on the beauty of the storm. Part of the reason why I love winter storms so much is how each of them is so different. The difference between Monday’s storm and yesterdays was remarkable!

While the snow on Monday was like cement, the snow yesterday resembled cotton candy, that gently covered each branch on trees and power lines, resulting in a Winter Wondeland like no other!

I was chatting with my friend Remy from Cornell University about the complexities of snow accumulations, snowflake production, and snow ratios. It takes a lot of calculations to figure out how much snow is going to fall, consistency, and how big the snowflakes are going to be!

Saturday marked the 43 year anniversary of The Great Blizzard of 1978. To this day, this storm still remains the benchmark of all storms that have occurred since here in Boston.

Some have been close, but to this day, none have been able to match the three forces of snow, coastal flooding, and winds. Just a quick reminder what the Blizzard of ’78 brought to the table. Hurricane force winds, devastating coastal flooding, two days of blizzard conditions bringing a 2 to 4 ft of snowfall, and up to 15 ft snow drifts.

I was chatting with another friend over the weekend, William form Denver, Colorado, formerly of the Boston area. He asked me which storm since then would be a candidate for runner up? I listed several that were close, but one stood out in my memory, and that was the December ’92 nor’easter. While this storm did not feature the prolific snow along the coast, it did come the closest with coastal flooding and winds. In fact, you could say this storm was larger, and more widespread than ’78.

Speaking of snow, we have more coming…possibly a lot more. My title of today’s blog says “It’s Prime Time”. What does this mean? This means it’s prime season for snowstorms here in Boston. Statistically, Boston has the highest chance of a major snowstorm between February 4th to February 14th. This 10 day stretch is the optimal time for when the ocean temperatures are the coldest, jet stream is at its lowest latitude, and moisture is abundant. Of course, we know it can snow well into march, sometimes even April, but as far as prime time for snow, this is it!

We have two, possibly three chances for snow this week, which I will go over in my forecast shortly.

Now here’s you ski & snowboard forecast. Conditions at most resorts have dramatically improved over the past several weeks. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Temperatures have been consistently cold, and there has been some natural snowfall recently. No blockbusters, but natural snowfalls nonetheless. Expect colder weather this week. A fast moving storm will bring many resorts a 4 to 8″ snowfall tomorrow, then possibly a bigger storm the second half of this weekend. Things are looking good!

Now for your local weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10.

Watch for sunshine and blue skies for the rest of your Monday. There may be some high clouds late in the day, leading to a golden sunset. It will be cold, but with the February sun, it will take the bite out of the air. Highs will be near 30.

Expect increasing clouds tonight. It will be cold, with lows mainly in the teens and 20’s.

A fast moving storm will track from the midwest, eastward, and pass south of New England tomorrow. This will keep us on the cold side of the storm with northeast to northerly winds. As with other systems of late, this storm will be gaining some strength on its approach. I’m not expecting snow like Sunday, but a very snowy day is on the way nonetheless.

Expect snow to arrive between 9 and 11 am. Snow will then fall steadily throughought the day into the early evening light to moderate at times. Computer models are showing a widespread 2 to 4″.

However, latest information shows some pockets of moderate snow tracking through the region. Therefore, I’m going with a widespread 3 to 6″ moderate snowfall across the Boston area. Locations along the south coast and Cape Cod will see less snow due to ocean air and mixing issues.

This system will clear out leading to a brighter day on Wednesday, with highs only in the upper 20’s and low 30’s.

Computer models show yet another fast moving storm tracking south of our region for Thursday and Friday. Latest trends have kept the heaviest snow south of New England. However, this too bears watching as a northern extension may cross our region on Friday bringing with it a chance of more snow! This too has the potential to bring moderate amounts of snow.

Right now, Saturday looks to be on the dry and cold side, with increasing clouds late in the day.

It’s a little too early to give specifics, but I can tell you computer models are predicting a storm developing out of the Gulf of Mexico to track up the coast as a possible major nor’easter for Sunday into Monday. This is still speculation, but the upcoming pattern would support such a storm. Whether it’s snow/rain or a mixture of the two is still too early to determine at this point. I will closely monitor this potential during the week and update everyone if conditions warrant.

As I mentioned last month, Polar Vortex disruptions and strong Greenland blocking could lead to a 4 to 6 week period of severe winter weather for eastern New England. Looking at the latest computer model guidance, I see no reason to back away from these predictions!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking into just how long this stormy & cold weather pattern may persist for. I will also have your new ski & snowboarding forecast. In the meantime, it may be prime time for snow, but come next month, spring will be knocking on the door!

Wishing everyone a Happy Valentine’s Day!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Nor’easter Update! 2/1/21

Good morning! Happy February 1st! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a fairly typical mid winters weekend across much of New England. After last weeks snow, temperatures turned bitterly cold, with highs mainly in the teens and very low 20’s. It was January after all, typically our coldest month of the year!

Despite the colder weather the last week of January, it was not nearly enough to erase the positive temperature departures we experienced in January. In the end, it finished about 3 degrees above average. The recent cold weather did help chop this number in half, however.

Snowfall was meager, and fell well short at what we would normally see in January. Boston typically averages approximately 14″ of snow in January. After a nearly snowless month, we did manage to a moderate snowfall last week, which bumped up the numbers to close to 5″ for the month. This fell way short of the predicted 28″ I was calling for at the start of the month.

But could this be a case of delayed but not denied? I believe it could! The long awaited pattern change induced by the sudden stratospheric warming event and Polar Vortex disruptions is finally beginning to show its effects!

We are kicking off February 1st in what could end up being New York City’s biggest snowstorm on record! Other areas of the the mid Atlantic region are also going to be buried in feet of snow!

Even as we speak New York City is currently under a state of emergency with 3 to 5″ of snow falling per hour and blizzard conditions!

Could this be a precursor for the month of February? I believe it is! I am expecting a wild 4 to 6 week period of wintery weather in much of the country, with New England being included. This will feature several more snowstorms and or blizzards, and bitterly cold temperatures!

Boston normally receives about 12″ of snow in February. This February, I’m expecting at least double if not triple this amount. I am also expecting February to become the first winter month in nearly three years to average below normal.

Computer models for February continue to indicate a negative NAO, also known as the Greenland block. This means pressure will be high over Greenland. When this happens, it buckles the jet treat, forcing it south of New England.

This helps to force storms to develop south of New England, locking in the cold air along the coast, and also slowing down the storms forward progress, sometimes stalling them!

In patterns like this, coastal New England can experience severe winter weather, with cold temperatures, and heavy snowfalls.

Even as I speak, snow is beginning to fall outside my weather bunker here in West Roxbury section of Boston!

Now for the latest update on the impending nor’easter! Snow is developing, and will rapidly increase in intensity as the afternoon wears on. If you can, try to be in a safe location by 3 pm at the latest. Thereafter, I’m expecting heavy snow and strong winds with near blizzard conditions arriving this afternoon.

Expect heavy snow to continue into this evening, with snowfall rates between 1 and 3″ per hour. This along with wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph will lead to blizzard conditions in much of the area.

With winds blowing in from the ocean, there’s always a chance of some mixing along the immediate coastline. In fact, there’s already a coastal front setting up right along the immediate coast. Winds to the right of this front in places like Logan airport, Quincy, and the south shore are blowing in from the east / northeast with temperatures warming to the lower to mid 30’s.

Winds to the left of this front in places like Needham, Newton metro west, are blowing from the north with temperatures remaining in the upper 20’s. This will act as two things. It may warm up enough to allow for mixing along the immediate coast which may hold accumulations down. It will also act as a convergience zone, which may enhance snowfall rates if you are located along this transition zone.

Snow will gradually lessen in intensity overnight. However, this may n to be the end of the story. The storm is actually going to stall south of New England tomorrow. This will continue northeast winds to be gusty during the day. There is also the threat of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tides.

As winds turn more northerly, temperatures will begin to plummet. Any coastal location which sees temperatures warm to above freezing may experience a flash freeze during the day, resulting in icy road conditions, and freezing snowbanks. In addition, there is the potential for another round of snow later tomorrow as the storm meanders south of Cape Cod and heads toward the Gulf of Maine. This snow may actually linger into Wednesday morning.

Here is my best estimate as to how much snow I believe may fall from this storm. Most of New England is going to get whacked pretty hard from this storm. If you live anywhere within 5 miles of the ocean in Massachusetts, accumulations may be held down, due to the mentioned mixing above. Here, I’m expecting between 5 to 10″.

If you live slightly inland from the ocean but inside of Rt 128 in places like Dedham, West Roxbury, Brookline, parts of Newton, Watertown, you can expect between 10 to 15″ from the storm. If we truly receive all heavy snow and experience the heaviest of bands, and receive backlash snow tomorrow, it would not shock me to see some 18″ amounts show up in some locations

All areas north and west of Rt 128 even southwest, including Worcester, southern New Hampshire and the seacoast region can expect between 12 and 18″ of snow, with some locations with elevation topping out at 2 ft would not surprise me.

After between 3 and 6″ of snow, it looks like the snow will change to rain on the Cape this evening. As the cold air moves back into the coastal plain, the rain could change back to snow later tomorrow, with the concern of a flash freeze.

One other note, in locations that receive heavy wet snow early this evening, there is the potential for trees becoming plastered with snow. With winds gusting up to 60 mph, there’s is the potential of tree damage and power outages. This is especially true in locations along I95 just inland from the coast.

Watch for improving weather conditions on Wednesday. Fortunately, it will not be bitter cold, with some partial sunshine, temperatures should warm up into the low to mid 3’s.

We may moderate further on Friday and Saturday as a warm front approaches. This could bring scattered showers but also temperatures in the low 40’s for a time.

Then another strong cold front will be approaching on Sunday. As this passes, there is a chance of rain. As the cold air presses in, this could change to snow as it turns much colder! This storm could herald in a arctic outbreak to the eastern part of the U.S. including New England. The forecast for late this week and into the weekend is low confidence. Expect changes.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will update my ski and snowboard forecast. Just too much going on today! Safe to say after the storm passes, ski conditions are going to be terrific! I will also elaborate more on the incoming stormy and cold weather pattern for February. In the meantime, it’s february in New England…which means it’s snow time! Be safe, everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Keep the Broom Handy…Maybe A Shovel? 1/25/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a cold weekend, as the region saw its first below normal temperatures in about a month.

Saturday featured bright sunshine, but temperatures actually dropped into the 20’s during the afternoon, with a biting wind. Strong winds meant low wind chill values for Sunday, as the cold but dry weather pattern continued.

The unprecedented warm streak of above normal temperatures ended last Thursday, as temperatures averaged below normal for the first time in 30 days! Wouldn’t you know it temperatures spiked above average once again on Friday, as a brief warm up sent us back up into the 40’s.

This was short lived, however. A strong cold front passed through the region with some snow squalls early Saturday, which ushered in the first real cold snap of the winter season!

As I mentioned in last weeks post, it’s been an odd winter so far. The season started off with a very unusual early season snowstorm which brought Boston its largest October snowstorm on record to the city. After a cold start, November turned unusually warm, with two straight weeks of Indian Summer warmth. There was no snow reported in November.

December was warm, overall. However, there was a wintery week during the middle of the month which featured quite an early season snowstorm for much of the region, where many received between 12 and 18″ of snow around the Boston metropolitan area. If you recall, this storm suddenly expanded up to ski country, where many locations were the recipient of between 3 and even 4 ft of snow at some resorts!

A White Christmas was a lock, right? Unfortunately, in typical La Niña fashion, it became incredibly warm just before Christmas, literally wiping out all of the snow on Christmas Eve. In fact, a large storm brought torrential downpours and temperatures in the 60’s on Christmas Day!

Who would of thought, Boston would have a White Halloween with temperatures in the 20’s, and a Green Christmas with highs in the 60’s! There’s no need trying to figure it out, that’s the way New England works! The fascination of it all keeps my passion strong for wanting more!

One would think winter would get going in the new year? Nope! Spring like temperatures saw flowers beginning to bloom in early January, as temperatures remained above average for 30 straight days, the second longest streak in Boston history!

A La Niña like storm brought heavy mountain snows and coastal rains during Matin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend. My sister Valerie reported 2 ft of snow had fallen at Stratton Mtn. in Vermont!

Snow continued to fall in favored upslope areas, where many elevated areas received another foot the following week. Strong southeasterly flow off the ocean kept the snow restricted to the mountains, as coastal New England saw zero snow accumulation.

In fact, after a fast start out of the gates, Boston is now running below average once again for seasonal snow. This is not surprising, as it hasn’t snowed in the city for nearly 30 days now. Yes, we have received very light accumulations at the beginning of January, and some dustings just last week, but all of that still hasn’t amounted to even an inch!

You may be asking, Pete, what happened to all the snow you were forecasting at the beginning of January? I was calling for double the average amount we typically see in Boston for January. That’s right, this is what you would call a busted forecast!

It’s not all about computer models, and fancy maps. Sometimes you have to go on your intuition, and in this case, my intuition was wrong! Talk of the Polar Vortex disruption and even a split, with winter surging into New England by mid January kept getting delayed and pushed back. Most of the severe winter weather headed towards Siberia and certain parts of Europe.

My motto when it comes to long range forecasting remains the same. Computer models may forecast doomsday scenario, but Mother Nature is going to do what she wants to do, regardless! It can be a humbling science!

We are roughly at the half way point of astronomical winter, and close to two thirds the way through meteorological winter. So far, as stated above, it’s been another warmer than average winter across much of New England, with now below average snow.

With all that being said, am I surprised by anything so far this winter? There are always some surprises with many ups and downs…that’s what makes the averages at winters end.

My winter forecast called for a changeable winter, not as warm as last winter but with mild stretches alternating with wintery ones, typical of La Niña winters. Yes, I was still surprised at the 30 day stretch of above normal temperatures!

Snowfall was forecasted to be slightly below average in southern New England, but above normal across the interior and up north. Although my winter solstice update did bump Boston up to a average winter snowfall, which is typically between 40 and 50″ in and around the city.

So far so good, I would say! I would give myself a B+ so far! Yes, the January forecast was not good at all, but let’s see how rest of the winter turns out as an overall average when completed. It’s possible February could make up for January??

Now, we move onto the second half of winter. The epic pattern for cold & nor’easters hasn’t gone away. It’s been here since mid January as advertised. We have just been very lucky up to this point, as a few ingredients have not been cooperating to unleash its fury.

Computer models continue to advertise high latitude Greenland blocking well into February, even into March. I can’t be 100% sure of this, but I believe this pattern is going to eventualy lead to either a major east coast storm, or an all out blizzard. According to Dr. Judah Cohen, the Polar Vortex continues to be disrupted, and it has even split according to his data as recent as today!

While it has not produced much wintery weather up to this point, I still believe we are going to run into a fairly severe stretch of weather along the east coast sometime during February or even March for that matter. If it doesn’t happen, then consider us living a charmed life here in Boston!

For those who love spring, it’s best to get these patterns out of the way here in the winter months. Any further delay can lead to the pattern collapsing when spring arrives, bringing with it miserable damp cold northeast winds along with wet snowstorms.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to write a short weather history segment. Back on this date in 2015, Boston was preparing for a fierce blizzard, which brought 2 to 3 ft of snow to the region, major coastal flooding, and bitterly cold temperatures. The storm, known as “Juno” was the first of four blizzards that paralyzed the Boston area with 94″ of snow within three week time period. This was an epic period in Boston weather history, leading to the all time greatest seasonal snowfall record in recorded history!

Now for your weekly ski and snowboard forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect wintery conditions this week, with cold temperatures early, becoming even colder later in the week and especially this weekend. There will be a light accumulating snowfall Wednesday. Thereafter, watch for potential dangerous cold weather moving in this weekend with highs in the single digits and lower teens, and nighttime lows near or below zero, with windchill values far below that. It should be mainly dry on Thursday, but there can be frequent snow squalls as the arctic air moves in.

Now time for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Watch for sunny and dry weather for the rest of your Monday. There will be some high cirrus clouds on the horizon towards sunset signaling a change in our weather. It will be a touch less cold this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 30’s.

Clouds will be on the increase overnight. While not turning totally cloudy, there may be a halo around the waxing moon. It will be cold, but nothing severe for January standards.

Tuesday will feature increasing clouds and cold temperatures, but nothing bitter. Clouds will begin to lower and thicken during the afternoon and it will look and feel like snow. Anytime after 4 pm light snow will indeed begin to overspread the region. I am not expecting any travel issues with tomorrow evenings commute.

Watch for steady light snow to continue through Tuesday night through much of the day on Wednesday. Wednesday mornings commute could feature some slick driving. There could even be pockets of moderate snowfall due to some ocean enhancement along the north and south shore of Boston. Winds will be light during the event, but will be blowing lightly from the east northeast off of the ocean. This wind direction will aid in the enhancement of snow.

Right now lets go with a widespread 2 to 4″ of snow across the Boston area. As mentioned earlier, there could be some local enhancements of 4 to 6″ in spots, especially across interior southeastern Massachusetts.

Similar amounts can be expected in southern New Hampshire and the Berkshires, expect some enhancements across locations with elevation, where some places could see up to 6″.

Snow may diminish for a time Wednesday evening, only to redevelop especially along the coast on Thursday. I’m not expecting too much on Thursday, but a fresh dusting can’t be ruled out. If skies clear, watch for the full “Wolf Moon” Thursday evening!

An arctic cold front will be crossing the area sometime on Friday. This will in conjunction with a strong upper level piece of energy will lead to more wintery weather, with bitter cold temperatures and passing snow squalls Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will remain in the teens and lower 20’s, dropping to near zero at night to 10 above at night.

Temperatures may moderate somewhat by Sunday with lighter winds.

Our attention will then turn to a possible significant winter storm next week. If this indeed turns into a threat, I will update everyone later this weekend.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my preview for February, and review the month of January. I will also have a new ski & snowboarding forecast, as well as an update on a possible winter storm. In the meantime, keep the broom & shovel handy…and maybe the snowblower next week! It’s winter time in New England!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Trending Colder…Snow? 1/18/21

Hello! Happy Martin Luther King Day! Overall, it was yet another springlike weekend across the region. There were some exceptions, which I will get to in a moment. Saturday started off stormy, with torrential downpours and strong winds, many even heard a rumble of thunder!

As the storm moved north of our latitude, skies tended to clear during the afternoon, with a tropical feel to the air. Many people were pleasantly surprised as temperatures surged into the mid 50’s!

It was a multi faceted storm. While coastal New England experienced rain and strong winds, it was a completely different scenario in higher elevations of western Mass. Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

There, it was just cold enough to support heavy wet snow. And snow it did, with many ski resorts picking up between 16 and 24″ of white gold! This arrived just in time for the Martin Luther King Holiday weekend!

While snow was falling in the mountains, large waves were battering the coastline of New England. I was quite surprised to see footage of the rough surf on social media Saturday.

This wasn’t exactly a nor’easter, but was a rapidly intensifying low pressure system that tracked inland from the coast. With this track, most of coastal New England was on the warm sector of the storm, with strong east to southeast winds. To the left of the center, it was just cold enough to produce heavy snowfall mainly in elevations above 1500 ft.

So here we are, entering the third week of January, with most major cities and towns in coastal areas not even reporting an inch of snow yet! While not as warm as last January, we are still running approximately 5 degrees above average for the month.

This is quite a bit cooler than last January, when many cities recorded 9 degrees above average! Yet, it’s all relative. While not as warm, this is still much too warm for this time of the year, regardless! Boston has recorded 26 straight days of above normal temperatures. This is the second longest such streak in recorded history.

Peter Lovasco of Northeast Mass Weather Alerts tweeted out this morning that he believes it’s our ever increasingly warm ocean temperatures off our coast that is prohibiting real winter like weather from arriving to New England.

Judging by our recent slow starts to winter, and in some cases especially within the past few years of no winter arriving at all, I would agree with this assessment 100%.

Over the last 10 years, there has been a seasonal shift in place. This is partly due to latent heating and cooling of the oceans. Warm ocean temperatures are keeping the climate warmer deeper into the winter, than in years past.

Yet, there’s more to the picture than meets the eye. Man made climate change could be contributing to the lack of wintery weather in recent years. Natural variations and climate cycles could also be a factor here. We have seen warm periods with little snowfall in the past.

However, I do find it alarming the unprecedented warm temperatures and records being broken on a frequent basis, especially within the last 10 years around here.

Granted, 10 years of record keeping over the course of 4.5 billion years is not even a second in geologic time, so we have to keep things in perspective here.

A few mild winters does not mean the earth is ending. It’s entirely possible the scale tips cold for a decade or two, balancing the whole system out.

I wasn’t planning on discussing climate change this week. It is very involved subject that needs open discussion, about many different subjects.

Some believe January is not as cold as it used to be. It does seem like when I was growing up, January was much more severe. You could almost bank on pond hockey every year, building snow forts, snow sledding, and many other outdoor winter activities.

In recent years, the patterns have become much more erratic. Though it has been mild, there has been some bitterly cold periods with heavy snowfalls as recent as January 2011, 2013, 2015, and the forgotten 2018. That’s four out of the last 10, the other years were very bland and mild. It must be noted, while we have seen cold & snow, there hasn’t been no sustainable cold since 2015.

With two weeks left to January 2021, it appears more than likely to go down as yet another warmer than normal winter month in Boston. This week will start to turn progressively colder, but only back down to average. The last week of the month could feature below average temperatures, but I doubt it will be enough to erase the positive departures from the beginning of the month.

Now for the tricky part. Mother Nature loves to balance things out. As I have mentioned in previous posts, there has been a lot of activity with the Polar Vortex regarding disruptions or even s split.

Computer models have been all over the place, ranging from heavy snowstorms and cold, to returning the pattern to mild and bland. It’s interesting watching professional meteorologists who follow each computer model run and then flip their forecast from cold to warm then vice versa!

I have seen enough evidence to maintain my going forecast of a active period of weather coming up, beginning on January 20th and lasting until February 15th. While I do not see a repeat of the epic snow blitz of 2014-15 winter, I believe there has been enough disruptions to the Polar Vortex this winter to bring a period of significant wintry weather to eastern New England with the potential of one or two major storms.

In the short term, I’m only expecting only some passing flurries with perhaps a period of light snow Thursday night this week. This will usher even colder air for the upcoming weekend, when temperatures may struggle to reach freezing!

Thereafter, a fairly large storm system will begin to gather across the middle of the country. If this storm takes a similar track like its predecessors, expect snow early next week, likely changing to rain in much of southern New England.

However, there is an equal chance that the Greenland block will force this storm to track more easterly, passing south of New England next tuesday and Wednesday. If this track verifies, it would lock in the cold air over southern New England, and we could be looking at our first major snowstorm of the new year. I will be closely monitoring this potential over the course of the week into the upcoming weekend.

Now for my latest ski and snowboarding forecast. The weekend storm turned into a bonanza for many ski resorts in New England. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. As I mentioned, many mountains received between 16 and 24″ of snow. With temperatures trending colder this week, many resorts will also be able to make plenty of snow, further improving conditions. In addition, some disturbances will be tracking through northern New England, bring periods of light snow & flurries, with minor accumulations through the upcoming weekend.

Time for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect a mixture of sun and clouds for the rest of your Monday. You may notice a spot shower or a passing flurry if you’re out and about. It will be mild for January standards, with highs in the 40’s.

Clouds should be decreasing tonight. There may be a slight breeze which will bring a chill to the air, with lows in the 20’s.

Tuesday will feature slightly colder weather, but nothing unusual for this time of the year. Highs will mainly be in the 30’s, under considerable cloudiness along with some breaks of sun.

Expect some clouds & cold weather tomorrow night, but again, nothing unusual for this time of the year. A weak disturbance may bring some scattered snow flurries, but no accumulation is expected.

Watch for slightly colder weather for the period Wednesday through Sunday. High temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 30’s during the day, and teens and 20’s at night. A few very weak disturbances will be passing through the flow. There is a chance of some flurries from time to time, even a period of very light snow is possible sometime later Thursday into Friday morning. No accumulations are expected at this time. We’ll see if there’s a storm next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have our mid point winter review, and let you now my thoughts on how I think the second half of winter will turn out. I will also have your new ski and snowboarding forecast. In the meantime, the trend is your friend if you like cold & snow…for now!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Tranquil Weather Through the 20th…1/11/21

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! An ocean storm spread clouds and some snow showers across the Cape on Saturday, otherwise it remained dry across the rest of the region. Sunday featured a bit more sunshine, with seasonable temperatures for the most part. Overall, it was an enjoyable mid winter weekend to get out and enjoy the outdoors!

While this was happening up here, areas across the deep south in such locations as Texas, Alabama and Mississippi actually received accumulating snowfall this past weekend! Some of these areas have received more snowfall this winter than some cities and towns in much further north latitudes!

I will admit, it has been another very strange winter across the Northern Hemisphere up to this point. If you did not see the video, Madrid, Spain received a blockbuster snowstorm with 20″ of snow falling over this past weekend!

This was the most snow they have seen in 50 years in that city. While you may think of Madrid as having a Mediterranean climate, its latitude is similar to that of New York city. Therefore, they are susceptible to intrusions of cold air during winter, and the occasional snowfall from time to time.

However, having a full scale blizzard strike this region, is very unusual. You could say it would be similar if somewhere such as the South Carolina getting hit with a similar storm here in the states. It does happen but is very rare!

While it’s been unusual here in Boston, it’s nothing that out of the ordinary. My winter forecast did call for a milder than normal winter, with large swings in the pattern ranging from very wintry to mild and tranquil.

With all that being said, the quiet weather this time of the year always seems so unusual around here!! I think WBZ meteorologist Eric Fisher tweeted out this morning that Boston has now seen 20 straight days with above average temperatures!

The mild stretch has made it seem more like endless March or even early April around here since mid December. In tandem with the mild temperatures has been a lack of snow…not only in Boston, but throughout much of New England for that matter.

You may be surprised Boston is actually running above normal for snowfall up to this point in the season. The reason? Well, there was the record breaking snowstorm before Halloween, then the major snowstorm a week before Christmas. In both events, the snow did not stick around long, as the patterns turned mild after the snowfalls, rapidly melting the snow.

The one saving grace is that it has been just cold enough for ski resorts to be able to make plenty of snow. With the chilly dry patterns, at least they don’t have to worry about a warm monsoon wiping out their snow!

While it’s been warm, it has not been as warm as last winter, at least not up to this point. If you recall, Boston recorded its all time warmest January temperature just a year ago today, with temperature reaching 74 degrees!

Last week, we discussed in detail about the Polar Vortex. At the time, computer models were behaving very aggressively in disrupting the vortex, and even going as far as splitting the vortex into different vortices. Since then, the models have been chaotic, ranging anywhere from a disruption, a split, to bringing warm weather back to New England for the remainder of January.

Looking over the latest computer data, it looks like a significant disruption is the way to go here. At this point, it does not look like a full split of the vortex is going to happen, at least not here in January.

What does a disrupted Polar Vortex mean? Well, in terms of sensible weather, a disruption can still mean the potential for severe winter weather. A disruption means the vortex has been attacked from high pressure. When this happens, it bends and stretches the vortex, bringing shorter periods of wintry weather down to our latitude, before retreating back north towards the north pole.

A full split of the vortex is a much more intense event, sending fragments of the vortex cascading down into our latitude, bringing with it extremely cold weather and many times ferocious blizzards, which typically last for between 4 to 6 weeks sometimes longer.

Seeing the disruption has already occurred, we should begin to see the effects from this beginning around the 20th of this month. It’s possible locations in Europe and Spain is already feeling the effects of this event.

For us, I am watching the last 10 days of January very carefully for the possibility of a major storm centered around the the 22nd to 25th of the month. Long range computer models are showing an abrupt end to our warm January with the potential for a major east coast storm.

Wintry weather could linger into the start of February, then relax for the rest of the month. The month could see our largest extremes, with cold & snow to begin, only to turn springlike later in the month.

You may think winter is over, but La Niña may change her fickle mind once again, sending wintry conditions back to New England in March. In some respects, the pattern reminds me of the 2017-18 winter quite a bit.

That too was a La Niña year, which featured a major stratospheric warming event in February, similar to what just occurred. While February was one of the warmest on record, March turned brutal, with four major nor’easter’s and 2 ft of snow in Boston.

Even with the lack of snow, ski resorts have been able to make snow, leading to acceptable conditions. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10 on the slopes. If you’re on a ski vacation this week, expect the chance for a few snow showers over the next day or two, but most areas will remain dry this week with comfortable temperatures for skiing…more like March than January. A more vigorous front will be approaching this Friday. Right now it looks like mostly rain showers, but a rush of colder air could change this rain to snow showers later on Saturday. No significant accumulations are expected.

Now for our local outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Watch for considerable clouds across the region for the rest of today and tomorrow. It will be chilly, but certainly not harsh for this time of the year. Watch for temperatures to be in the upper 30’s and low 40’s, and overnight lows in the 20’s.

Expect fair weather with mainly above average temperatures to continue for the period of Wednesday through Friday. There will be some clouds, but also count on periods of sunshine as well. Once again, temperatures will what you would expect in March around here, with highs in the 40’s to near 50.

A cold front will be approaching the region Friday night. With temperatures so warm, expect rain to overspread the region later Friday night and continue into a good portion of Saturday. Cold air may try and rush into the area later Saturday which may change any leftover moisture to a few flurries?

Sunday will feature clearing skies and somewhat colder temperatures, with highs back down into the 30’s, which is seasonable for the this time of the year.

Well, that’s about it for now! Hopefully there will be more than just speculation to speak about next week, as the weather patterns should begin to become more active! I will also have your new ski and snowboard forecast! In the meantime, enjoy the mild pattern through the 20th…then, we’ll talk!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Mild Pattern…Turning Wild? 1/4/21

Happy New Year! I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday weekend, and holiday season for that matter! The weather this past weekend was more like March than early January. A brief burst of snow arrived Friday evening only to turn to rain and drizzle by Saturday morning.

By the way, it was just cold enough for snow to fall up north, where many ski resorts received between 5 and 8″ of much needed snow!

After a gloomy start, some sunshine broke through the clouds during the afternoon, leading to a pleasant afternoon. Slightly colder air moved into the region Saturday night and Sunday.

A small storm developing down the coast brought periods of wet snow and damp weather to the Boston area starting around mid afternoon on Sunday. Most snowfall was just wet inside Rt 128, but some locations experienced brief bursts of heavy snow, resulting in slippery roads and up to 2″ of accumulation. Generally less than one inch fell in the city of Boston.

Interesting how that small event yesterday was forecasted to be another soaking rainfall and very warm temperatures last week. Over the course of the week, the storm morphed from amother winter monsoon, to a major snowstorm, to a questionable storm, to a storm that just fizzled out.

While ski resorts would of loved the major snowstorm option, I’m sure they’re equally grateful the second winter monsoon in less than two weeks did not materialize.

So what happened to the storm? Many folks didn’t even realize there was potential for a major storm! Yes, this was mainly kept under the radar (excuse the pun) from mainstream media, due to the uncertainty of the computer models.

Not to make things too complicated, but the atmosphere is undergoing some major changes here in the new year. The big question is, changes from what? So far, it’s been a variable winter around here.

While it’s been milder than normal overall, we’ve also seen our share of snow, mostly in December so far. For the most part, the snow that has fallen, has melted fairly quickly, leading many to believe there hasn’t been much of any snow this winter.

As you may know, I love rating the winter on a severity index, a 1 to 10 rating, with one being least severe, and 10 being most. When I give my weekly weather rating, one is for very inclement weather, where a 10 signifies a beautiful week of weather!

It’s far too early to give a severity index for this winter, but if I were to place a number on it up to this point I would place it at about a 4 out of 10. Yes, we had the significant snowstorm a week before Christmas, but the weather has been fairly tranquil and mild since then. Had that storm been followed by bitter cold weather and additional snowfalls, the severity index would of been much higher.

That’s where we stand right now. Is it possible the severity level increases the deeper we go into winter? Yes, that possibility is on the table.

I mentioned earlier the atmosphere is undergoing some major changes. Whether these changes propagate down to where we live remains to be seen. The potential is there!

What changes am I speaking of? First, there is high latitude blocking developing north of New England across Greenland. What this means is High pressure (mild & dry) is building across Greenland. When this occurs, low pressure develops underneath where we live in the mid latitudes (cold & stormy).

If that isn’t enough, there is mounting evidence of a possible Polar Vortex disruption, or even more alarming a PV split beginning around mid month. If this indeed does occur, and I’m only going by computer projections and the expert knowledge of Dr. Judah Cohen, then all hell could break loose across parts of North America, and also Europe.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, the Polar Vortex is a intense vortex or belt of winds circulating mainly across the polar region of the northern hemisphere. As the winter season matures, the Polar Vortex grows larger, and expands like taffy.

It may sound counterintuitive, but when the Polar Vortex is very strong, the weather across North America is typically mild. Last year was a good example of this, as the vortex was near record strength, and we experienced one of the warmest winters on record.

When high pressure rises in the polar region, it can penetrate and disturb the vortex, allowing it to expand into our region.. This alone can lead to episodes of bitter cold outbreaks and snowstorms across the lower latitudes including where we live. This is not that uncommon, and is one reason why we experience winter weather in the first place.

When this occurs, we typically experience periods of wintry weather, very cold outbreaks and a solid snowstorm or two. As I mentioned when this occurs the vortex expands like taffy, stretching down near our latitude, doing its job, then retreating back up to the main vortex in northern Canada.

Here’s the concern. There are strong indications that the warming (high pressure) that is currently underway, may indeed lead to a Polar Vortex split. This is a totally different beast when this occurs.

A split means the vortex has been broken apart, with several lobes of the vortex migrating down into the mid latitudes. The worry is that the Greenland block I mentioned earlier can trap these vortices underneath the block.

If this does occur on our side of the northern hemisphere, then a 4 to 6 week period of severe winter weather conditions become increasingly likely. This could mean at the very least a snow blitz of nor’easters and blizzards similar to what we experiened in winters of 2004-05, 2010-11, and dare I even include 2014-15.

For the record, I am not expecting a repeat of 2014-15 at this time. That year brought a very unique, perhaps once in a lifetime winter pattern to eastern Massachusetts resulting in a crippling amount of snow in a very short period of time to the Boston area that year.

Nonetheless, this pattern has the potential to bring multiple nor’easter storms, and even the chance of a blockbuster blizzard along the urban corridor from D.C. to Boston.

As of right now, this is still all speculation and projections. There’s no guarantee of a real snow blitz occurring. So many things still have to come together just right for this to materialize.

My point is to give everyone notice that this has about about a 60% chance of verifying between January 15th and February 15th.

Taking all this into consideration, I am expecting above average snowfall in Boston this January. We typically see approximately 14″ of snow on average at Logan airport during January. If the potential is realized, Boston could see double this number this January. This would make it the snowiest January since 2018, and 2015 before that. Temperatures may trend colder for the second half of the month, leading to near neutral temperatures at months end.

Here is your weekly ski and snowboard forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. No major meltdown, some natural snow, and nightly snowmaking will lead to an improved ski and snowboarding forecast this week. While many areas received a new light snowfall over the weekend, they could still use a major storm to solidify bases. I don’t see this happening this week, but there is a chance this weekend, then greater chances beginning next week. The ski and snowboarding outlook is looking good for this month.

Now for our regional outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect some sunshine to break through the clouds for the remainder of your Monday. It will feel mild, with temperatures in the upper 30’s low 40’s. Perhaps a nice evening for a walk?

Watch for clear skies early tonigh. However, low clouds from a stalled ocean storm may drift back into coastal regions later tonight. If winds turn onshore, there may even be some patchy light snow or flurries developing along the coast.

This flurry activity could continue into part of your Tuesday. I’m not expecting any major accumulations, but I can’t rule out some isolated 1 or 2″ amounts in favored coastal locations.

Unsettled weather may continue along the coast into Tuesday night, but again, nothing significant is anticipated.

As the storm moves east on Wednesday, the weather should begin to improve across the region. This means more sunshine and pleasant temperatures for this time of the year.

Similar weather can be expected for Thursday and Friday, with mainly dry conditions, and temperatures in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.

The first of possibly many winter storm threats will be developing across the mid Atlantic region on Friday into Saturday. At this point, it looks as if this storm will track more easterly rather northeasterly. Therefore, I am expecting this first storm to miss most of New England. I will be monitoring the track of this storm carefully, just in case it decides to track closer to the coast.

At this point, the upcoming weekend looks to feature mainly dry and pleasant temperatures for this time of the year. There could be another storm to monitor next week at this time, but we’ll worry about that when the time comes!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating everyone with this volatile pattern! I will also have a new ski & snowboarding forecast. In the meantime, no worries for this week. As I always like to say, we don’t have to shovel potential!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Another Storm…Down The Drain! 12/28/20

Hello! Hoping everyone enjoyed their holiday! After the Christmas Day monsoon, things dried out and cooled off across much of New England this past weekend. Saturday featured a good deal of sunshine, but temperatures were a good 30 degrees colder than Christmas Day. Sunday was also sunny, and slightly milder, with highs near 40.

It’s been quite a wild ride since the mid December snowstorm around New England! After the storm which dropped between 12 and 18″ of snow around Boston on December 17th, many were banking on a White Christmas!

I have seen this rodeo show one too many times around here to know better. A major snowstorm a week before christmas does not guarantee a White Christmas!

This is especially true in La Niña years in which we’re in. La Nina’s are far too fickle, as the pattern can change on a dime. So far, this December has been the perfect typical La Niña protocol. Variable temperatures that features times of cold, but also surges of unseasonable warmth. In many La Niña years, we usually see a fairly healthy snowstorm before Christmas, which we received back on the 17th.

Unfortunately for those who dream of having a White Christmas, La Niña changed her mind, and delivered a all too familiar warm monsoon rainstorm on Christmas Day, with many locations seeing temperatures close to 60 degrees, and 2 to 3″ of rain. This was not confined to only the Boston area, either. Locations as far north as Caribou, Maine also experienced a green Christmas with rain.

If that wasn’t enough, places way up north in Newfoundland, Canada also witnessed a rare green Christmas. My Newfoundland Twitter friend Stan Collins was quite pleased he didn’t have to break out the snow blower on the holiday this year!

While I wasn’t surprised at the green Christmas around Boston, I was taken aback by the rapid retreat of the snow, and the surge of warm air on Christmas. I know La Nina’s are fickle, but this took it to a new level!

With places like Caribou, Maine and much of Newfoundland void of snow this Christmas, we’re talking about a very rare year to witness this. These places typically have near a 100% chance for a White Christmas!

I was writing in my weather forums I belong to on WeatherBell Analytics, that I have seen many meltdowns in my lifetime, but few were as great or cruel as this one! If you recall, we still nearly had a foot of snow on the ground heading into Christmas Eve. I knew it was coming, but to actually see it happen, was heartbreaking.

A combination of a building southeast ridge (warm temperatures) and a deep low pressure passing to our west, developed a strong fetch of southerly winds from the tropics! This flow also brought near record high dew point temperatures to our region.

In addition, tropical downpours pelted the snowpack into submition, and by Christmas morning, it was all gone! A snowpack can survive heavy rain at 35 degrees. However, add thick fog, dew point and air temperatures near 60 degrees, and two feet of snow would of been gone by Christmas, let alone one!

We can always dream of a white Christmas next year!

I have some good news, and bad news to share with everyone today. The good news is that our days are becoming longer. You may notice twilight still showing up at 4:45 now. This may not seem much, but it’s slightly better than darkness at 4;30! We still have a ways to go, but at least it’s trending in the right direction.

This is to give hope for folks who suffer from seasonal disorder. Personally, I love the long nights of November and December. I’m fortunate that the early sunsets do not seem to bother me. In the same regard, I also love the long days of summer!

The days will continue to get longer until we reach the summer solstice on June 20th. At that point, the days begin to become shorter. As in the winter, very slightly at the start, but increases significantly during August and September. Same in winter, where we are now. The days lengthen slightly at the beginning, but begin to increase more significantly as we head into February, and especially March.

The bad news is that we still have a full winter ahead of us! Now for more good news if you don’t like cold & snow! It appears as if I may of spoken too soon last week with increasing my snowfall predictions for this winter.

I may have got caught up in the computer model hysteria of showing a very cold & stormy January on the way. Recent trends have backed off from this scenario. When I said I wanted to tick the accumulation up a notch from my original forecast back in November, it probably would of been a better forecast to say 40 to 50″ this winter…a tick up from 30 to 40″ in my first forecast…not 60 to 70″ I mentioned last week.

With all that being said, it’s done now! If I keep changing the forecast each week at what the models are saying, well that’s not much of a forecast, and it’s confusing for many!

For those who enjoy snow and winter season, do not despair, La Niña tends to please all, and will bring another nor’easter or two to Boston yet before this winter is complete!

I would rather not constantly change with each model run, but La Nina’s are tricky to forecast! So far, my winter forecast from November is on point! I did say this winter was going to feature a little bit of this, and a little bit of that, focusing on rapid changes with times of wintry conditions, followed by mild and tranquil times. We did see our December storm, which gave us above average snow for December I mentioned back in the winter forecast.

Moving forward, I definitely like my original forecast best. Expect a very volatile pattern this winter, with periods of wintry weather, along with tranquil mild times. I don’t see anything locking in for too long of a stretch. I am expecting one or two more good snowstorms in Boston this winter, which should bring my totals up close to my range.

Just following the computer models is too risky. They change which each computer run every 6 hours. Expect the unexpected, and nothing to last for too long this winter.

With colder temperatures returning, ski resorts have been able to resume full snow making. In addition, many mountains have received frequent flurries and squalls in recent days. While not ideal, many resorts have recovered from the christmas massacre.

Another storm arriving late this week will bring more rain and mild temperatures. However, this storm may feature a redevelopment along the coast, and may lock in enough cold air for a wintry mix in northern New England this go around, preventing another nuclear meltdown. I will give this week a 5 out of 10 for ski conditions.

Now for our outdoor winter activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect mainly cloudy weather for the rest of today. There may be some partial clearing late in the day to offer a glimpse at a colorful sunset. It will be on the mild side, with highs in the upper 40’s.

Watch for clearing skies and brisk conditions later tonight, with lows in the 20’s.

Tuesday should feature times of bright sunshine and colder temperatures with highs mainly in the 30’s. Watch for clear and cold weather tomorrow night, with lows in the teens and lower 20’s.

Temperatures will recover back up into the upper 30’s on Wednesday with dry conditions.

Another front will be moving through the region on New Year’s Eve. This front will feature a band of rain showers, which may fall as snow showers across the interior of New England. No strong storm is anticipated. However, this front will introduce a slightly colder air mass across New England.

Another storm will be approaching the area on New Year’s Day. This is going to be a tricky storm and will need to be monitored closely for interior New England, especially Maine.

A primary storm will be tracking west of New England on Friday. However, unlike the Christmas storm, this storm will have a redevelopment across the mid Atlantic region. This secondary low pressure will tend to lock in low level cold air across the interior of New England, resulting in the worst kind of storm…ice storm!

If there was deep cold air available in our region, we could be talking about significant snowstorm across the interior. However, the cold air over our region will be shallow, which will not support a lot of snow.

Therefore, expect a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain to overspread New England during Friday. This precipitation should turn to all rain east of I95 across eastern New England rather quickly. However, low level cold air may get locked into areas north and west of I495, resulting in an ice storm with possible tree damage and power outages.

Further up north, the cold air will be deeper, with more sleet and snow falling, possibly changing to freezing rain in these locations. Places up across interior Maine west of I95 should prepare for a major winter storm with an icy wintry mix of precipitation.

Watch for rainy and damp weather to continue well into Saturday, with icy conditions well north and west of the coastal plain. Sunday will feature drier conditions, with a brisk wind, and temperatures mainly in the 30’s.

A quick moving storm may bring some light snowfall to southern New England on Monday. Something to keep an eye on.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be previewing January, and reviewing how December turned out. I may also review the weather of 2020. I will also have your new ski and snowboard forecast. In the meantime, be happy one more storm down the drain, is one less storm to shovel!

Wishing everyone a safe, healthy & happy New Year!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter! 12/21/20

Hello! Welcome to astronomical winter! Winter officially arrived today at 5:02 A.M. That’s the bad news…the good news is that the days begin to lengthen from here on out! You won’t see much of a difference at first, but by the time we reach February, you will begin to see a marked difference in the amount of daylight. Things begin to accelerate more quickly in March, when we gain over 3 minutes of daylight each day!

You may think the atmosphere plays follow the leader and the days will begin to get warmer too? Unfortunately for those who enjoy warmer temperatures, that’s not the way the game is played!

The old saying holds true, “As the days lengthen, the cold strengthens!” Much like in summer when our hottest temperatures occur in July and first part of August, it’s the same in winter, when our coldest temperatures are not realized until January and early February, but why is that?

It’s a combination of incoming solar radiation and our ocean temperatures. It takes longer for the oceans to cool off in the fall compared to what the season would tell you.

For instance, you may think the coldest ocean temperatures are in December or January, but actually it’s in February and March! This is process called latent heating and cooling.

In late spring and early summer the process is reversed, as it takes the oceans longer to warm up, not reaching their warmest temperatures until August and September.

Obviously the sun is driving force of all our weather here on earth. In the fall it takes some time for all of that stored radiation & heat from summer time to slowly dissipate.

Therefore, our temperatures take time to cool off reaching their lowest levels in January and February. This is why our weather gets colder as the days begin to lengthen. It sounds counterproductive, but that’s the way it is!

So here we are, the first day of winter! Some may think winter arrived since late October, starting off with our record breaking pre Halloween snowstorm.

This is true, it has been strong start to the snow season this year in Boston. This coming off two lackluster years in the snow department. Sandwiched in between was a very warm first half of November when much of our region experienced a straight week with temperatures in the 70’s!

Since then we have seen a marked change in the weather patterns. Couple weeks ago we had the weekend nor’easter which was forecasted to bring heavy snow to the Boston area, only to fizzle at the last second, when temperatures remained too warm for rain to flip to snow.

Winter came back with a vengeance last week, as much of central and southern New England experienced their first major snowstorm of the season. This turned into a real blockbuster of a storm, with many towns around Boston receiving between 12 and 16″ of snow!

However, this was only half the story! Very intense snow bands unexpectedly developed much further away from the storms center. These bands developed over N.Y. state, central and southern Vermont, and central N.H. where many communities registered between 3 and 4 ft of snow…all falling within 24 hours, and in some cases half that amount of time! Wow!

So you may ask, Pete, the winter forecast made back on November 23rd called for below average snow in southern New England. This is true. I did call for below average snow around Boston this winter, but with northern New England seeing much more snow than down here.

If you read the forecast carefully, I did say that December could be our biggest month this winter, with above average snow even in Boston. Well, we have already achieved that. Yet, despite the snow, we are most likely going to finish with above average temperatures for the month as a whole.

Also remember, I always did mention that I would be updating this forecast at the winter solstice just in case I saw any changes. I say this because so many things can change in our atmosphere between Thanksgiving and the winter solstice.

I did mention it was going to be a volatile winter, with many rapid changes. I also expected some extreme weather events, which we’ve already had.

Based upon what I’m seeing right now, I’m going to tick this winter up a notch. We’ve already had two nor’easters, three if you count Halloween. Two delivered decent snows, and the third we got lucky as it remained just warm enough for rain in Boston.

I see signs that we could see several more high impact storms coming up in January. There’s going to be an awful lot of cold air building up in canada. At the same time, warm air across the south with a very energetic sub tropical jet stream will make for a fierce battle zone, with multiple storm threats of either rain, ice or snow.

If we’re on the cold side of this zone, which I believe we will be for some of these storms, we can expect very wintry conditions to persist at times well into January this year.

There may be a break in February, but computer models are showing winter to return in March. If this energetic winter pattern persists, Boston could exceed it’s seasonal average of 44″ this winter. This is a increase from the 30 to 40″ I predicted back in November.

How much? It’s very difficult to say, as storms can abruptly shift and shut off. However, if we reach the maximum potential, it’s possible we see between 60 and 70″ of snow this winter in Boston.

We’ve already surpassed last seasons seasonal forecast. There’s no guarantee these storms are going to keep coming, but from what I see right now, it looks like we could see another blockbuster this winter here in Boston.

Here’s your updated ski and snowboard forecast. As I mentioned above, many southern resorts received between 3 and 4 ft of snow last Thursday! Ragged Mountain in Danbury N.H. got whollopped with 4 ft of snow, while Gunstock Mtn in Guilford N.H. received 39″!

Unfortunately, we have a big rainstorm coming to much of New England Christmas Eve & Christmas Day, followed by a flash freeze and bitter cold temperatures later Christmas Day and night. Therefore, I would give skiing a 9 out of 10 up until Wednesday, then plummeting to a 2 out of 10 thereafter. Hopefully they can get the ski guns operating later Christmas Day and salvage the weekend…but it’s going to get icy for a time!

Now for our regional outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Sorry for the late post today, but we didn’t miss too much today as it was a rather bland day, with gray skies and mild temperatures.

Watch for temperatures to once again dip below freezing tonight, with the possibility of seeing more black ice and freezing fog. Temperatures will fall into the 20’s and lower 30’s.

Tuesday may start out with some low clouds, but watch for a brisk wind to develop along with increasing sunshine from north to south by midday. It will be seasonable, with highs in the mid 30’s to lower 40’s.

The feel of winter will be with us tomorrow night with lows in the teens and 20’s

Despite abundant sunshine on Wednesday, there will be brisk wind, and it will feel cold even though temperatures will warm up into the 30’s.

Watch for cold & dry weather to continue Wednesday night with lows in the 20’s.

An approaching strong cold front and associated low pressure will be approaching our area from the west Christmas Eve. Look for increasing clouds and milder temperatures.

Rain will overspread the region Christmas Eve along with strong southerly winds and rising temperatures. Perhaps the absolute worst recipe for those looking for a White Christmas…YUCK! This happens nearly every year to us!

On a more serious note, it’s going to become quite stormy overnight, with heavy downpours, strong winds, and even the chance of thunder! Winds could approach between 50 and 60 mph across the region which could result in some power outages.

Christmas Day looks stormy! Watch for the morning to feature downpours and strong winds, with temperatures approaching 60! After the storm moves north of our latitude, it will whip a strong cold front through New England. Watch for shifting winds to west southwest during the late afternoon with rapidly falling temperatures, and fast moving clouds! If there’s any moisture left over, it may fall as some scattered snow showers, especially across Vermont where some areas may see some accumulations.

While it’s warm and rainy in new England, it will be a different story across New York state. If you are planning on traveling across upstate N.Y. watch for heavy snow squalls developing with white out conditions and heavy accumulating snow!

Expect much colder weather to arrive Christmas night, with lows dropping into the teens and 20’s, along with windy conditions. This will make it feel even colder with wind chill values falling to near zero!

The weekend looks dry and cold at this point, with mainly sunny skies and temperatures in the 20’s and low 30’s.

There are some indications of a large ocean storm developing off the mid Atlantic coast early next week. I will be closely monitoring this over the weekend and will be sure to update everyone if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will have your last outdoor winter activity forecast for 2020! For those celebrating, I will also have your New Year’s Eve forecast. Watch for your ski and snow board forecast too! In the meantime, it may feel like winter now, but springtime Christmas Day…only in New England!

Merry Christmas to my family, friends and loyal readers!

Thank you so much for your interest!

Pete

Potential Nor’easter…12/14/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a split decision weatherwise, as Saturday featured rainy and cool weather. After a foggy start, Sunday turned into a real gem of a day, with sunshine and temperatures close to 60 degrees!

In fact, some towns southwest of Boston were in the lower 60’s. It was yet another beautiful day to hang Christmas lights, or take a walk in the neighborhood. Though it felt more like spring around the Boston area, it was noticeably cooler up north.

How quickly we forget that last week was quite chilly around here! I was surprised of the biting wind chills and temperatures that never made it to freezing on Tuesday and Wednesday,

Despite the very warm autumn, the weather pattern is beginning to turn decidedly more wintery here in December. Everything is relative. While I don’t see anything severe for us this month, it’s looking quite a bit more active than past several Decembers. The pattern coming up will prove it doesn’t need to be cold all the time for it to snow, just cold enough at the right time!

This leads to the fun question I receive every year around this time…are we going to have a White Christmas? I will let you know our chances in a moment, but first I would like to explain what our chances are living here in New England.

First, what constitutes it being a White Christmas? Well, this is subject to interpretation. According to the National Weather Service, having one inch of snow on the ground at 7:00 am qualifies as a White Christmas. So you can imagine how many close calls we’ve had in recorded history!

White Christmas. It’s what we all dream about this time of year! Even folks who don’t care for snow generally don’t mind seeing some of the white stuff around for the holidays.

That’s the dream. The reality is that our chances of having a White Christmas along the coast is generally quite low. In fact. there is only a 25% chance or about 1 in 4 Christmases that are white in Boston. Statistics are all over the place. We can go 6 or 7 years in a row green, then have a couple in a row that are white.

This is only half the story. I believe the numbers are somewhat skewed. As mentioned above, there have been many years, I would say about 60% of the time with very close calls.

This means there was a snowstorm before Christmas which melted before the day arrives, or just after Christmas, or even on Christmas night! It’s very rare when there’s been no snow, or the threat of snow around Christmas time. Though the past two Decembers have been unusually warm with no snow, this is the exception not the rule.

As one travels away from the ocean, the chances for snow on the ground for Christmas dramatically increases! North and west of Rt128 up along the New Hampshire seacoast jumps up to 40 to 50%. This increases to 60% in Worcester county extending up into interior southern New Hampshire through coastal Maine. If you want a guaranteed White Christmas head up to northern Maine, where Caribou has a 90% chance of a White Christmas!

The last White Christmas in the Boston area was back in 2017, when a rapidly developing nor’easter delivered 2 to 4″ of snow to Boston on Christmas morning along with thunder! Before then I believe it was way back in 2010.

What are our chances this year? If you asked me a couple weeks ago I would of probably said near zero chance! At this point, I would say it’s about 50/50 chance.

However, as I mentioned above, the weather pattern has turned more wintry here in December. If latest guidance is correct, we have two chances for snow before Christmas. The first one looks to be a much colder event than the busted forecast of December 5th.

Therefore, the chances for an all snow event is quite high…close to 100%. The big question about this storm is how far north the storm is going to track to our region, and if we get into the heavy snow. Whatever falls, is going to be the fluffy light weight type of snow.

Cold temperatures will persist into the weekend. Another storm threatens the region around Christmas Eve. Depending on the track, that could be rain or snow. Right now, trends have been for a colder solution storm…but let’s take these one at a time. We certainly have our hands full for forecasting the one for Thursday!

It’s going to be a close call. The storm on Thursday is going to feature light powdery snow which settles quickly and is susceptible to melting easily. So if we get a couple days in the 40’s between now and Christmas, that snow could easily melt away. It may come down to the storm potential the day before Christmas. I will be monitoring this and have an update come next week!

As mentioned above, there is the potential for a significant storm Wednesday night into Thursday. Once again, this is going to be a nail biter trying to forecast!

For a major winter storm, we need two ingredients…cold air & moisture. The cold air is beginning to arrive today, and will only be reinforced courtesy of a strong high pressure building across southern Quebec.

One other ingredient which is very important is having a Greenland block. After years of no block, we currently do have a negative NAO, or Greenland block. This buckles the jet stream south of New England and helps lock in the cold air along the coast.

Next ingredient we need is moisture. An active southern jet stream is supplying energy for a storm to develop across the mid Atlantic on Wednesday.

As I mentioned above, we have not seen this set up for several years, with a cold high pressure to our north, and a storm advancing up the coast from the south. This scenerio is a recipe for a winter storm for us here in southern New England.

Unlike the last storm, I am much more confident it’s actually going to snow this time in Boston. The big question moving forward, and I may not know the answer to this until sometime later tomorrow, is just how far north the heavy snow band is going to get?

Right now, computer models are in disagreement on the axis of heavier snow. The American based GFS model keeps the storm surppressed, only bringing a glancing blow to Boston, somewhat more down the Cape.

However, there is a suite of foreign models such as the European, Canadian and United Kingdom models that bring the heavy snow up into Boston, with accumulations of a foot or more.

In fact, the UK model blasts southeastern Ma. with a full fledged blizzard and over 20″ of snow!

As of this update, I will take a blend of the two, bringing a significant storm to the region, but keeping the heaviest snow just south of Boston. We can use the Mass Pike as a good divider for this storm, with heaviest accumulations south of here, and much lighter amounts north of the pike. Folks in northern New England looks like they will largely miss this storm altogether, though light accumulations are likely across southern zones.

Keeping that in mind, many ski resorts look to miss out on heavy accumulations from this storm. It’s too bad, as they could use some natural snow leading up to christmas. I would rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect resorts to be able to make plenty of artificial snow, as temperatures will be cold enough through the weekend. As the storm passes south of the region on Thursday, southern areas could receive a few inches of snow, while northern areas remain dry. Another weak storm could bring light snow over the weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10.

Expect light rain showers to mix with wet snow before ending later today. No accumulations are anticipated around Boston today. Perhaps a slushy coating if we get a burst later today as it turns colder.

Watch for clearing and colder weather to move into the region overnight, with lows dropping into the teens and 20’s.

Tuesday should feature cold temperatures, along with a an abundance of sunshine. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 30’s.

Fair and cold weather will be the theme heading into tomorrow night, with lows in the teens and low 20’s.

Wednesday will feature increasing clouds and cold conditions. It will really feel like snow is on the way. High temperatures will remain in the 20’s. If winds veer northeast, there may actually be some ocean effect snow showers blowing in off the ocean especially across south shore communities.

Later in the day, the snow shield from the storm will be slowly advancing from south to north.

Snow should overspread the region Wednesday evening in earnest. Right now, I see steady snow falling across the Boston area possibly heavy at times, along with gusty northeast winds. Snow should be heaviest south of Boston towards the south coast and southern Rhode Island, where accumulations could exceed 10″ by the time it diminishes later Thursday.

With a southerly track, the potential exists for Cape Cod to see it’s first genuine snowstorm in three years. The potential exists for between 6 and 10″ of snow if they can avoid mixing with rain. If mixing does get involved, amounts would lower to 3 to 6.”

As of this posting, I’m going for a general 6 to 9″ snowfall in Boston, with similar amounts in our western suburbs, with 2 to 4″ in southern New Hampshire and seacoast region. If the storm tracks a skosh closer to Boston, amounts could approach a foot, as we would get into the heavier precipitation, which would also increase accumulations north of Boston as well.

However, there is an equal chance the storm trends further south, leaving Boston with only a few inches of accumulation. If this happens, areas north of Boston would only see a dusting to two inches. The biggest potential for this storm lies from Boston points south…right now centered across southeastern Mass.

Expect snow to diminish from west to east Thursday afternoon. However, if winds remain easterly, snow could linger in eastern Massachusetts for the better part of the day even into the evening. It will be cold, with highs only in the 20’s and lowe 30’s.

If the track of the storm changes, I will be sure to update everyone through Facebook. As you can imagine, I am approaching this storm very conservatively, after the last forecast fiasco. Last storm it wasn’t cold enough for the rain to change to snow.

This storm brings a new challenge. The dense cold air may act as a block, and suppress the brunt of the storm south of Boston. It’s going to be a close call, but this is my best call the way I see it right now!

Expect fair weather for both Friday and Saturday with chilly temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30’s, and lows in the teens and 20’s.

A weak storm may approach New England on Sunday spreading some rain or snow showers or a mixture of the two during the day. This is not anticipated to be anything major.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will be updating my final winter forecast. I will also let you know whether we will have a White Christmas…as well as a new ski and snow board forecast! In the meantime…stay tuned for updates!

Thanks for reading!

Pete