Back To Reality…3/14/16

Hello, there! Spring, in all its glory, sprung into the region this weekend! Temperatures were between 15 and 20 degrees above average across the region!

With temperatures like this, people flocked outdoors, enjoying walks in the park, doing some early season gardening, or even going to the beach!

This falls  on the heals of a record setting warm day last Wednesday. In fact, the high temperature of 77 degrees in Boston, was the warmest it’s been for so early in the season, in recorded history! Very impressive early season warmth, indeed!

Keeping with the spring theme, we also turned the clocks ahead early Sunday morning. We will now enjoy longer days, with the sun not setting until 6:50 this evening!The days only get longer from here. Sunday is the first day of spring, or the spring equinox. On this day, both the length of daylight, and darkness is of equal time.

At this point, solar radiation will begin to rapidly increase, as the northern hemisphere begins its journey towards the summer solstice!

I don’t know about you, but this daylight saving day is killing me. When I was younger, losing the hour meant nothing to me.  It didn’t bother me whether they added an hour, took away an hour, I just kept rolling on.

Today…wow! Losing the hour has me completely frazzled! I actually tried to outsmart my biologic clock, by going to bed early on Saturday night. That seemed to work, as I felt pretty good yesterday, although the day did seem to go by awfully fast.

As good as Saturday night turned out, last night was a disaster! For some reason, I couldn’t fall asleep. Then, when I did, I woke up unexpectedly at 4:45 this morning. So much for tricking my biologic clock!

To make matters worse, my computer is not working today, forcing me to write the blog on my tablet. Needless to say, this is going to be an abbreviated post!

Getting back to the weather, many folks have been asking me if winter is over. Judging by the pattern here in the first two weeks of March, I would say yes…it’s over. However, reviewing the latest extended computer guidaince, Mother Nature has different plans for us.

After starting the month off nearly 6 degrees above the average, Mother Nature is going to do her best to even the score the last two weeks of the month.

I have to admit,  it was nice seeing evryone so happy with the early arrival of springlike weather! Even though it was a warm winter, it still is nice to be able to head outside not all bundled up!

This is classic New England weather! Just when you think we can pack away the winter gear for the season…surprise! Even as of this writing, sleet pellets are pinging off my window! It was 64 degrees just 24 hours ago.

Come this weekend, it could get worse. In a ironic twist, some folks may need to break out the shovels and snow plows by Sunday…the first day of spring!

Will the winter storm, which has been eluding us all season, finally catch up with us, on the first day of spring? Some computer models are showing a storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

This storm then phases with another piece of energy diving in from the Tennesse Valley. The storm then consolidates, and starts heading up the coast.

At this point, the storm begins to rapidly intensify, as it approaches New England. From here, computers models diverge in the track. If the storm tracks east of Boston, a very early spring nor’easter may happen.

Should this track verify, a nasty storm would be the outcome, with heavy, wet snow, gale force winds, and power outages. I know what you’re thinking,  I have heard this story before this winter, blah, blah, blah.

It’s true. This winter has been all talk and no action! However, it would be just like New England’s climate to pull something like this off!

Right now, I will take the conservative route, and go with the general consesus. Other computer models track this cyclone up the coast, right over Boston. Such a track would bring a brief period of wet snow, changing to a windswept rain. I will go with this for now. This has been the trend this winter. Close, but no direct hit. If I see solid evidence of a more wintery track, I will be sure to update my forecast.

With all that being said, this type of track would crush the Green and White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire with a blockbuster heavy snowstorm. Even lower elevations of interior New England could receive accumulating snow. With cold weather to follow, ski resorts may think about being open for skiing on Easter Sunday the folllwing week!

If it doesn’t snow in Boston this Sunday, the’re actually a couple more chances the last 10 days of the month. The pattern is going to turn much more wintery, with below normal temperatures, along with the chance of during next week and heading into Easter Sunday.

This should not come as a big surprise. March is a volatile month, with extreme weather changes! Boston has experienced blizzards right into the first week of April!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Look for a damp afternoon, with occasional rain and drizzle. When it rains heavily, some sleet could mix in. It will be on the chilly side, with highs only in the lower 40’s. This may seem cold, but only because it’s been so warm.

Expect heavy rain to move in, in earnest tonight. If you live deep in the interior of New Hampshire, some sleet and wet snow could be mixed in, but no significant accumulations are expected.

Tuesday will start off with heavy rain in the morning. If you have a commute, please leave extra time. Periods of light rain and drizzle will continue during the afternoon, and for much of the night for that matter.

Expect mainly damp weather to continue on Wednesday. It will not be a washout, but keep the umbrella handy! Light showers may continue into Wednesday night.

Thursday should be a better day. Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Any early showers should clear out during the day. Temperatures should also respond, warming to near 60.

Friday & Saturday should feature fair weather, but cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the 40’s.

The good thing about writing the blog late, is that I get the latest computer model data! Latest guidance confirms my earlier thinking. It looks like any snow would be short lived in Boston, with mainly a heavy rainstorm and high winds for the I95 corridor from Boston through coastal Maine. Hopefully the rain holds off until after the parade in South Boston.

Ski resorts may still see accumulating snow, but some warm air may even make its way up there too. We shall see how this evolves during the week. If the track changes, I will be sure to update my forecast.

Well, that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will be examining our spring timetable in greater detail. If time permits, I will also have a peek at our summer forecast! In the meantime, just a little setback to deal with, real spring will be here in no time!

Thanks for reading!

Pete