Colors of September…9/28/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it felt more like summer than the first weekend of fall. Saturday was a gem, with deep blue skies, light winds, and temperatures near 80! Sunday featured some sun, but also more clouds. It was muggy, with highs once again in the 70’s. It was a great weekend to take a walk on the beach, a hike in the mountains, or a fall foliage trip! Nothing beats autumn in New England!

Speaking of fall foliage…wow! Reports and pictures coming through on Twitter is showing intense fall colors, and peak foliage arriving some 2 weeks earlier than normal!

Many friends and family have been commenting & asking me if it seems early for the trees to be changing color, so quickly. The answer to this, is yes!

No doubt, there has been a disconnect with fall foliage across northern New England and coastal New England. Foliage has been very good up north the past couple years. Temperatures were just cool enough, and they received just the right amount of rain for colors to turn, with good color.

Foliage along the coastal plain has been an adventure to say the least. The combination of black tar leaf disease, unseasonably warm temperatures, humid nights, and also very warm ocean temperatures have kept trees green around here through Halloween. I recall three years ago, coastal locations did not have a foliage season at all. Leaves went from green to brown, then fell off the trees.

This year is different. There is no black tar leaf disease. This means leaves are healthier. You may ask Pete, what about the drought?

Yes, the drought has played a huge roll. In some cases drought is not a good sign for bright foliage. In this case, the key was the frosty nights we received a couple weeks ago, especially up north, where temperatures dropped into the 20’s at night.

But even down here in southern New England, there were several frosty nights outside of Rt 128. The combination of dry weather and early frosts shut off the sugars and nutrients to the trees, setting the trees off in a blaze of color!

This resulted in trees literally changing colors seemingly overnight! Peak fall colors have arrived in much of northern New England, including Vermont, interior New Hampshire and Maine.

Even down here in southern New England, there are pockets of peak colors in various locations, depending upon where you are. If not peak, there are many trees exploding with vivid reds, oranges and yellows even in our local neighborhood! I was driving around the Dedham area last Saturday, and there were many trees showing stunning color!

Now, the recent warm weather will slow this process down. Expected rains this week will also give trees a late season boost in nutrition to temporarily slow down the changing colors.

I do not think this will ruin a vivid foliage season for us in southern New England. Cooler days and chilly nights will be arriving this weekend. This should resume the changing process. If it remains cool in October, we could be in for one of the brightest autumn’s in years.

If the cold & dry weather were to continue, the Boston area would experience peak foliage by Columbus Day weekend. This would of been the earliest the city would see peak fall color in some 35 years!

Even with the recent warm weather, I’m expecting peak foliage to arrive in Boston the third week in October this year. Typically, peak foliage comes through the city of Boston the week of Halloween. This may still change, so I will monitor the progression over the next few weeks.

Late fall foliage is a good example of climate change in coastal Massachusetts , including Boston, with warmer temperatures keeping leaves greener deeper into fall.

Up in northern New England, peak foliage has arrived, and the color is stunning. If you are planning on a fall foliage trip, this weekend would be a good weekend to go! The beauty of fall foliage, is that if you can’t make it up north, just wait, and it will arrive in our own backyards in the coming weeks!

Now that fall is officially here, I wanted to give a quick preview as to what kind of fall we can expect around here.

Overall, I believe this is going to once again be a warm fall. Despite a real chilly period in mid September, this month will once again end up being another warmer than normal month. This is heavily weighted with the abnormally warm temperatures we have been experiencing over the last week or so. Unlike past several falls, there will be some intrusions of chilly weather, punctuated with mild spells.

While the first half of October looks to be on the chilly side, a warmer second half should boost it above normal, once again. I’m not expecting any blow torch, but maybe one to two degrees above normal. Increased tropical activity & close proximity of jet stream energy, should result in wetter patterns that we experienced during the summer, with above average precipitation.

November is looking like the warmest month out of the three! A big ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) looks to rebuild along the east coast. This could lead to several spells of Indian Summer. So do not put away those shorts just yet! With the warm November expected, this will lead to an overall above average fall this year.

After a wetter October, drier than normal patterns could once again return to New England in November, which will likely continue our drought conditions as we head into winter. November is typically one of our wettest months of the year, but currently I do not see a wet November this year.

This could still change, especially as we head towards the second half of November. I will monitor and keep everyone updated.

I am running a little short on time today, so I will go right into the weekly forecast.

I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect a moist southerly flow to develop this afternoon, with splashes of sun, along with dark low clouds. With the atmosphere becoming increasingly moist, there will be some scattered showers around the region, especially across the Cape. It will be warm & muggy, with highs mainly in the 70’s.

Watch for muggy and damp weather overnight, with areas of fog and drizzle. I can’t rule out a few showers as well.

The heavy rain I’m expecting will come in two waves. I’m not expecting heavy rain in Boston tomorrow, as the first thrust will likely track across western New England, west of Worcester, where many areas could see soaking rains with 1 to 2″ of rain, falling during the late afternoon and night. All while this is happening, there could be some showers at any time across eastern Massachusetts.

Wednesday looks to be the wettest day. A second wave of low pressure will be tracking up the coast, bringing with it heavy rain, strong winds, and humid weather. The initial thrust will once again be tracking west of Boston. However, as we approach evening, the heavy rain should finally reach Boston, which should continue into Thursday morning. I am expecting 1″ eastern areas, 2″ western areas of rains by the time the cold front moves offshore Thursday. Not exactly a drought buster, but we’ll take what we can get!

Friday will be cooler. Another follow up system may bring some light rain showers Friday night.

Thereafter, watch for much cooler and drier weather to arrive this weekend. It will be mainly sunny both days, with highs in the lower to mid 60’s, and lows mainly in the 30’s and 40’s throughout the region.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be have my review of September, and my official preview of October. I will also have a new fall foliage & drought update. If time permits, I may begin to share some of my thoughts for the upcoming winter. In the meantime, enjoy the color of September…what is red now, will be white in the not so distant future!

Thanks for reading!

***Happy Birthday to my niece, Olivia!***(October 2nd)

***Happy birthday to my nephew, Nicholas!***(September 25th)

Farewell Summer! 9/21/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was our first real taste of autumn! Saturday featured deep blue skies, with a brisk wind, and temperatures barely reaching 60.

Saturday night featured cold temperatures for this time of year, with many interior communities receiving their first frost of the season. While temperatures along the coast fell into the lower 40’s, many towns outside of Rt 128 fell into the low to mid 30’s…cold enough for frost! Sunday was even a touch cooler, with colder overnight lows than Saturday!

In fact, many locations up north saw temperatures fall into the 20’s, officially ending the growing season. It was so cold, I saw a post from Sunday River ski resort testing out snow making equipment for the upcoming ski season!

My sister Pam reported a first frost of the season in the seacoast region of new Hampshire over the weekend! This is about 10 days ahead of schedule for that region. Thanks for the report!

If you think this is early for these type of temperatures, you’re correct! While it’s certainly quite normal for northern New England to see temperatures in the 30’s with light frosts, it’s a bit early for sure seeing 20’s and hard freezes this time of year!

By my estimation, this cold was about 2 weeks ahead of schedule.

First frost typically arrives in northern New England and deeper valley’s of southern New England around the week of the 20th of September. Way up north can experience frost much sooner than that, even late August some years!

Boston’s suburbs typically see frost the first week of October, on average. Inside Rt 128 set back from the coast typically sees their first frost around the 20th of October. It may wait until the first week of November on average for places right along the ocean, such as Logan airport, Cape Cod and Cape Ann. Of course these are just averages, some years are later, and some sooner.

Atmospheric scientist and seasonal forecast expert Dr. Judah Cohen tweeted this morning asking whether this cold shot and sudden pattern change to colder weather is a sign of things to come for the upcoming winter, or just a head fake?

Even with his credentials, he does not know the answer to these questions for sure…just yet. However, as we get deeper into the fall season, atmospheric signals should give him a better idea on what he thinks the winter will have in store for us this year.

After last two winter forecasts, I’m convinced more than ever that it’s more of an educated guess making a seasonal forecast. Yes, some years are better than others. For instance, I have made some decent summer forecasts in recent years! I believe this is due to more stable teleconnections in our warm season.

On paper, last winter and even the year before appeared to have all the ingredients for big winters. A last second slight shift in the Pacific Ocean resulted in one of the warmest winters on record in the Boston area. In the end, it truly was a humbling experience to say the least.

I have mentioned it before, I believe the atmosphere is always in a chaotic state of flux. The constant change in solar, ocean temperatures, volcanoes & wild fires to name a few, is constantly changing weather patterns.

When you think you have it figured out, it suddenly changes. Nonetheless, the field of meteorology has made tremendous advancements in technology over the years.

No doubt, short term forecasting, technology and understanding the weather, has greatly improved. Seasonal forecasts still need more research to improve accuracy, if that’s even attainable.

Circling back to our early autumn chill. Some are asking me whether it’s a sign of a bad winter. It’s possible. But from my experience, cold snaps in September typically have no bearing on what kind of winter is in store.

With that being said, this is perhaps the coolest Septembers we are having in several years. That is not saying much, as the past several Septembers have featured near record warmth, with well above normal temperatures. In some cases September ended up warmer than August!

Even with our recent chill, it still looks like we’re going to end up with above average temperatures for September this year. It’s all relative. While it may seem very cool, it’s mainly because it’s been so warm in recent years.

Longtime local meteorologist and horticulturist Dave Epstein tweeted an interesting graph this morning showing September & October has seen the greatest increase in climate change in New England. Meaning our autumn’s are growing warmer in recent years around here.

Looking ahead, it’s not surprising to see above normal temperatures returning to New England for the next 7 to 10 days or so. Some computer models show another trough (cold & unsettled) heading towards the east coast at the very end of September and the start of October. Thereafter, more warm weather may overwhelm New England for much of October, making for yet another warm autumn month around here.

The big question is what happens in November. Sometimes, November can give us clues as to what kind of winter we’ll be having. Current long range computer models are showing warmer than normal weather continuing through November, but this is not a lock, and is subject to changes.

As we progress deeper into autumn, I will be discussing my thoughts in greater detail regarding our upcoming winter. As a reminder, my official forecast will be posted on November 23rd.

With autumn arriving tomorrow, today is my first fall foliage report of the season! I will be updating everyone of the progression of our fall foliage from now until the first week of November.

According to latest reports, the leaves are beginning to change color across the higher elevations in Vermont, northern New Hampshire and Maine. Early feedback is saying the leaves look vibrant, and a colorful foliage season is on the way. With the recent frosts, this should only accelerate this process, as the color wave progresses south.

Expect leaves to begin changing quickly in these locations, with peak colors arriving about 7 to 10 days from now. Fall colors appear to be on track to arrive on time this year throughout the region. This can change as we progress deeper into fall, depending upon temperatures and precipitation.

Even down here in southern New England, there are splashes of color showing up around ponds and rivers. Expect this to increase as we head into October!

Now for your latest outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect sunshine and cool temperatures for the rest of your Monday, with highs reaching into the low 60’s. It will be a pleasant evening for a walk on the last day of summer!

Watch for another clear and chilly night. This will make for the third frosty night in a row across the countryside and rural area of Massachusetts, with lows dropping down into the upper 20’s to mid 30’s. Inside of I95, in urban areas and along the coast expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40’s.

Expect sunny and slightly milder weather on the way for Tuesday, the first day of autumn! There are several things to monitor tomorrow! First, steering currents may steer wildfire smoke back into New England! This will give the sky a hazy look to it.

Second, Hurricane Teddy will be passing east of New England tomorrow. We will not see any rain from this system. However, the pressure gradient from a high pressure to our north, and low pressure to our east, will result in strong northerly winds along the coast, and especially over Cape Cod, where many areas could see winds of between 40 and 50 mph! This would be strong enough to result in some trees falling, and scattered power outages.

Mariners beware!!! Large swells emanating from the storm will be crashing in along the eastern shores of New England. Current projections show waves of between 6 to 10 ft high along east facing shorelines.

However, offshore, these waves are forecasted to be between 30 and 50 ft, or larger!! With astronomical high tides, there could be areas of coastal flooding in flood prone areas. This is not the time to be out on the water! Please use caution if you are planning on viewing these waves near the coastline.

For the period of Wednesday through Sunday, expect mainly sunny skies, and temperatures warming back up to seasonal levels. This means lower to mid 70’s, but temperatures may be cooler with sea breezes along the coast.

A few disturbances and cool fronts may result in some cloudiness at times, and possibly a shower or two, but overall I’m expecting dry weather through the period with a gradual warming trend.

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next blog, I will be talking about how our ongoing drought and how it could affect our fall foliage season, and what ramifications it may have on our winter patterns. I will also have my summer review, and a new fall foliage report. In the meantime, say farewell to summer, and look forward to Indian Summer!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Whether it’s a sign of things to come, one thing I know for sure, it’s not the start of winter!

Red September! 9/14/20

Hello! I’m back! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After a muggy Friday, the feel of fall was in the air over the weekend. It wasn’t cold or anything, but there was definitely a chill to the air Saturday night. Sunday was milder, and was a great day to be hiking in the mountains, or taking a walk along the shore.

Sorry I did not have a chance to write my post last Monday. Like many, I was enjoying perhaps the best Labor Day weekend weather we’ve had in years.

I had high confidence it was going to be nice, but wow, the weather that weekend was exquisite! To have three straight days on a holiday weekend with warm sunny days, and clear cool nights is rare. I spent a very relaxing weekend with family down in Falmouth, Ma. on Cape Cod!

Ahhhh, September in New England! It doesn’t get much better than this! I was speaking with my sister Valerie this morning about just how beautiful this month truly is. We both agreed it’s the perfect mixture of cooler temperatures, lower levels of humidity, and less storm activity that makes this month so special!

This is not always the case! September is also known for hurricanes hitting New England. In fact, many call the 1938 Hurricane that struck New England the most severe storm to ever hit our region on record! This storm hit on September 21st, 1938. So we’re not totally out of the woods just yet!

In addition to hurricanes, September can also be known for lingering heat from summer. This has certainly been the case over the past five Septembers. It was as if Mother Nature Shifted the seasons, keeping the hot weather going from August well into September and even into October.

We are on the cusp of autumn, and the big question today is whether these very seasonable temperatures are going to continue, or is La Niña going to burst our autumn bubble and send heat back into New England later in October and into November?

Here we are in mid September, and the month has featured much more seasonable fall like weather than we have experienced over the last five years.

You may not believe it, but the cooler weather has a large impact on the economy. There are so many outdoor activities people like to do in the fall such as apple & pumpkin picking, fall foliage trips, camping to name a few. Oh, let’s not forget Dunkin’ Donuts Pumpkin Spice coffee flavor!

Ski areas also like to get people thinking about the upcoming ski season with cooler temperatures and talk of foliage season.

All these activities occur every year, regardless. However, wouldn’t it be a lot nicer if temperatures were in the 50’s and 60’s, rather than the 80’s and 90’s it has been the last several years?

I must say, at this point, computer projections have been inaccurate in their forecast for September. Many were forecasting well above average temperatures, similar to what we’ve seen past several years.

So far, we’ve been much closer to “average” than anything else. In fact, many computer models are now forecasting a real autumn chill heading our way for this upcoming weekend, extending into the following week.

Looking out further into the future, many computer models are calling for a warmer than normal winter for much of New England. Now, take this with a grain of salt!

Warmer does not necessarily mean no snow! Northern New England has seen a warmer than normal winter past two years, and have received boat loads of snow! The areas that may be affected the most with lesser amounts of snow in a warm winter would be coastal New England.

These same computer models were forecasting near record cold and blizzards the past two winters, and how did that turn out for us along the coast? Not good!

The bottom line, it’s still too early to tell for sure. Like any year, sudden last second changes in ocean temperatures can drastically change the outcome of the winter. I will post a preliminary winter outlook around Columbus Day, then have a detailed look at our winter forecast come November 23rd.

Before we get to that point, we have many other things to be concerned about. The weather patterns that have been so tranquil for so long across much of the country, has suddenly turned extreme.

So far, we have been spared here in New England. Other parts of the country has experienced extreme wildfires, heat waves, summer snowstorms and now hurricanes!

I was chatting with my dear cousin April form California, and she was describing to me the apocalyptic conditions in her home state. We have all heard of red sky at night sailors delight? How about red sky all day, keeps everyone in all day? The embers and ash have strangled the lower levels of the atmosphere, resulting in a red glow above San Francisco. My goodness! This is scary stuff!

Wildfires happen every year. However, there’s a difference between pockets of fires here and there, and literally the western part of the country from Washington state, Oregon, and California on fire!

The culprit? A massive area of high pressure, or a heat dome (hot & dry) is parked across the western part of the country. We’re not just talking temperatures in the 90’s, we’re talking temperatures in the 120’s! This alone is almost enough to ignite fires! A lone dry flash of lightning, or worse someone starting it, results in a catastrophic scenario!

At the same time the far west was burning up, a very unusual pool of cold air plunged into the Rocky Mountain region, including the city of Denver. How about being in the low 100’s on Sunday, then be dealing with a winter storm and heavy snow on Tuesday! My friends William & Brett were on top of this storm, posting amazing footage on Twitter!

Not to be outdone, we have a super hyper active hurricane season ongoing! Today, we have rapidly intensifying Hurricane Sally heading towards New Orleans. As this storm heads towards landfall, it’s growing stronger. in addition, it’s slowing its forward progress. They are now talking 100 mph winds, and rains accumulations of up to 20″.

Let’s not forget about Paulette! She’s battering Bermuda today with damaging hurricane force winds and heavy rains! Wow!

With so many storms developing in the Atlantic, we are rapidly approaching the end of our alphabet for named storms. We will soon be entering the Greek alphabet, and will likely exceed the most named storms ever recorded in a single hurricane season by the time the season officially ends on November 30th. To place this in perspective, we are running 3 weeks ahead of the record season of 2005.

Circling back to our autumn. Folks, I honestly do not know where we are heading from here. Computer models will keep telling you it’s going to remain warm through the end of the year.

My gut feeling tells me we are in for a more seasonable autumn this year. The wildcard is the developing La Niña (cold ocean temperatures off west coast of South America). There are many more factors that go into seasonal forecast, but La Niña and El Niño is a major driving factor, in my opinion.

La Nina’s can be real tricky here in Boston. Autumn can feature many different types of weather. Some years, La Niña can feature blow torch temperatures, with well above normal temperatures through November.

However, some years, it can suddenly turn cold, especially in November. If this happens, a stormy cold winter can sometimes be what follows. Some examples of this would be the winter of 1995-96, 2010-11, and 2017-18.

La Niña autumn’s that are warm tend to stay warm throughout winter. Examples of this is 1999-2000, 2005-06, and 2011-21012.

For this year I’m thinking close Fall temperatures will average close to neutral, perhaps tilting slightly warmer than normal, but nothing too extreme. Then again, some La Nina’s feature cold Octobers, only to turn warm in November. Some computer models do show this scenario unfolding.

Regardless, autumn is coming this year. I believe with the cooler temperatures, fall foliage will be more on time this year. In fact, foliage is beginning to pop in northern New England along the Canadian border, and in the hills and mountains of Vermont. Peak foliage arrives in these areas at the very end of September. The color wave then begins to spread south each successive week during October, reaching the Boston area the week of Halloween.

Despite the ongoing drought, I still believe cooler temperatures will allow leaves to turn on time. I also believe colors will be brighter than other years due to the lack of black tar diseases. I will begin my fall foliage reports beginning next Monday! So check back!

This could be my last beach & boating report of the season! Expect fair and pleasant weather from today through next Sunday! Best beach days would be today, Wednesday and Thursday. Next weekend would be best for apple picking! Boaters watch out for shifting winds on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday. There is a slight chance of rain on Friday. Otherwise an autumn chill will be sweeping into New England this weekend!

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. More Septemberish than anything else.

Keeping with the tranquil theme of September, this is a fairly straightforward weather forecast.

Expect sunny & dry weather from today through the upcoming weekend. However, the devil is in the details.

It will be on the mild side today, with highs in the lower to mid 70’s. If you think the sky looks hazy, you are looking at smoke from the wildfires out west!

A strong cold front will sweep off the coast this evening, bringing chilly temperatures into New England. By the time you wake up, temperatures will be in the 30’s up north and deep interior locations. Otherwise, I’m expecting widespread 40’s, and lower 50’s in urban area.

Tuesday will be dry & cooler, with highs in the 60’s.

Wednesday and Thursday will see a rebound in temperatures, with highs back up into the 70’s under dry conditions.

Another cold front will cross New England late Thursday. Remnant moisture from Sally will track just south of New England on Friday. It will be cooler, and there is a chance of a few showers if not a period of rain south of Boston towards the Cape on Friday.

Otherwise, expect clearing and cooler weather on Saturday. Highs will mainly be in the 60’s. Clear and chilly on Saturday night, with widespread 30’s and 40’s across the region, with areas of scattered frost.

Expect crisp fall like weather on Sunday, with highs only in the 50’s!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will discuss my fall forecast in greater detail. I will also have our first fall foliage report! In the meantime, let’s hope the only red we see this September are the leaves on our trees!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Labor Day…We See You! 8/31/20

Hello! Happy last day of meteorological summer! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! As advertised, Sunday was the better of the two days. Remnants of Laura linked up with a cool front on Saturday, leading to periods of showers and a few downpours across the region.

Nobody saw excessive amounts of rain, but it was enough to foul up any outdoor activities. As the front swept off the coast, Sunday turned into a wonderful late summers day!

Hard to believe we have arrived to the end of meteorological summer! As a reminder, this consists of the three month period from June 1st to August 31st.

Depending on where you live, it was a very warm to very hot summer. Many interior locations such as Hartford, Connecticut, Worcester, Ma., Providence, R.I. & the Great Blue Hill in Milton all have recorded their hottest summer on record! Wow!

Much like July, August ended up being a hot & dry month. However, there were a couple days that thankfully saw torrential downpours, in areas that desperately needed the rain. These downpours helped keep much of the Boston area from falling into extreme drought. As it is, we’re still under a moderate drought advisory.

As has been the case for the last several years, , the hottest weather arrived in July and continued through August. While June was only slightly above average, the real heat arrived in mid July. Boston is currently running approximately 4 degrees warmer than average for August. Despite the heavy downpours, the city is still running about an inch below normal in precipitation for August observed at Logan airport.

This just shows us that precipitation in summer months is not as widespread as in winter. Some communities receive it, while others miss out. With the observation site out at Logan airport, this skews the statistics from the rest of the city, where the torrential downpours occurred in mid August.

Getting back to the hot weather, it would not be uncommon for one observation station to a record hottest season, but to have four is almost unheard of! Imagine how cold the temperatures would of been if all four sites recorded the coldest winter on record?!

Not surprisingly, many of these locations have also recorded one of their driest summers on record. Back in spring I mentioned that the dry pattern could result in hotter temperatures this summer.

A lot has to do with feedback. Dry soil levels heat up faster, with less moisture to evaporate, resulting in hotter temperatures. Once this process begins, it’s very hard to reverse!

While meteorological summer is ending, astronomical summer will keep rolling on until we arrive to the autumnal equinox on September 22nd.

The big question moving forward, and the same question I had last week, is whether autumn will be arriving early this year, or will summer continue to fight?

True, many have felt a little taste of fall in the air the past couple days. There’s no sense in denying it, the seasons are beginning to change. It’s a natural process that happens whether we like it or not!

For northern states, including us here in New England, the first taste of fall can occur about this time of year. Nights begin to grow longer, which allows the temperatures to begin to cool off.

A rather complicated weather pattern for this time of year is developing across the Northern Hemsiphere. High pressure is increasing across the western part of Canada and U.S. (warm & dry). As this is happening, a trough of low pressure (cool & wet) will be gaining strength across central Canada.

This cool air will expand, and begin to move due south into the upper Midwest of the U.S. Lucky for us, the brunt of this cool air will not be directed towards the east coast.

In fact, as this cool pool of fall air plunges into the central part of the country, a warm tongue of air will linger on along the east coast, including Boston, at least for the first part of September.

Think of it like a garden hose. If you shake it vigorously, the hose will make big loops. These loops are like the jet stream, with domes of warm & dry weather in the high part of the loop, and pools of cool & unsettled weather in low part.

Cooler intrusions into the U.S. during September is perfectly normal. fall is approaching, and the seasons are beginning to change.

However, this has not been the case for us here in New England the past several years. Warm patterns which begin in July, have lingered through September, and in some cases October and even early November!

While I can see a slight cool down here in New England for the first 10 days of September, I still don’t believe true consistent fall weather is ready to sweep into our region.

A persistent ridge of high pressure along the east coast looks to remain in place through September. Cold troughs in the middle of the country will attempt to press eastward, only to fizzle out as they approach the east coast. This ridge is going to act like a block, preventing chilly autumn temperatures from arriving to New England prematurely.

Therefore, I’m going with another warmer than average month, especially for eastern New England, where the warm signal is strongest. Increased tropical activity leads me to believe we have a better chance for rainfall this month. I’m also going with above average precipitation across much of the region.

Could there be another day or two of 90 degree temperatures? Yes, that is still certainly a possibilty. After this cool down, temperatures look to warm back up into the 80’s next week, then could become even warmer thereafter.

In a typical September, high temperatures average in the upper 70’s to start the month, falling to the upper 60’s by months end. Low temperatures start out in the upper 50’s, falling to upper 40’s by the end of the month. Brrr.

If fall wants to come early, it will do so, regardless at what computer models are saying. I’m just reporting what I’m seeing, and what the general trends have been in recent years. Hot summers have transitioned into very warm autumns.

Now that we’re entering September, it’s time to start talking about fall foliage season! Fall foliage is like the lottery…you never know what the season has in store!

In general, hot dry summers tend to lean towards a dull foliage season. But that’s not always the case! I remember a hot summer a few years ago when experts said the foliage season was going to be a dud. Well, it actually turned out to be a glorious season, with brilliant colors! We never know for sure until it’s over.

Fall foliage is a delicate balance of precipitation, sunlight and temperatures that bring out the best colors during fall. In the coming weeks, I will try to explain how these factors play a role in determining how vibrant our fall foliage will be this year.

Fall colors will begin to show up in the crown of Maine the first week of September (almost time), reaching peak Towards the end of September. The peak fall color wave will then proceed to spread south, not reaching the Boston area until the last week of October!

Now for your beach & boating forecast. Though cooler, it still looks like a good week for vacationers much of this week. It’s not going to be perfectly sunny, but pleasant temperatures will allow for outdoor activities.

There will be some showers at times, especially Wednesday night through Friday, but no washout is anticipated. With the anticipated cooler temperatures and lighter winds, it may be a good week for boating, with the exception of Saturday. After a breezy & coolish Saturday, warmer temperatures will stream back into New England, allowing for good beach weather to arrive for Sunday and Monday.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Weighted heavily in anticipation for the fine weather expected over the Labor Day weekend.

For the rest of your Monday, expect a September like weather, with some sun mixed with times of clouds. Temperatures will be seasonable mainly in the mid 70’s.

Expect some mid to high level cloudiness overnight. It will be on the cool side, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s regionwide.

Watch for somewhat unsettled weather conditions for the period Tuesday through Friday. This does not mean rain everyday. I am anticipating more clouds than anything else for tomorrow and Wednesday. Lots of small scale weather systems without too much fanfare. Temperatures should mainly be in the mid to upper 70’s through this period.

There is a slightly higher risk of a few showers and thunderstorms on both Thursday and Friday. It will be warmer, with highs in the middle 80’s, along with higher levels of humidity.

A cold front will sweep through New England Friday night, bringing the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms. Though still not widespread, the chance is greater than other times of the week.

This front will sweep off the coast early Saturday, bringing with it a cool fall like airmass to begin the holiday weekend. If you are camping up north this weekend, it may be a bit chilly Saturday night!

Thereafter, expect warmer weather to rapidly advance back into the region for Sunday and Monday. If you’re not in the mountains, you should be at the beach these days! Temperatures should warm up into the mid to upper 80’s. It looks like a beautiful unofficial end to summer to me, as far as I can see!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new tropical weather update. I will also have my preliminary fall forecast! In the meantime, I see you Labor Day weekend…and you’re looking fabulous!

Wishing everyone a safe & happy Labor Day weekend!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Drought Relief! 8/24/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After a brief cooldown, we were back in mid summer form this past weekend! While certainly not perfect, many still were able to enjoy outdoor activities before the deluge arrived!

After a sunny start, many communities received a good soaking Saturday afternoon. My brother down in North Falmouth registered 2″ in the rain gauge! I did not hear too many complaints, as the region desperately needed this rain.

The weather on Sunday once again started out with sunny skies and warm temperatures. Similar to Saturday, the weather took a turn for the worse, with more storms forming along and north of the Mass Pike, this time more severe than Saturday!

In my forecast last week, I did mention that there will be some pop up showers from time to time. I was not surprised that the storms occurred, but I was very surprised at the intensity of them! The complexity of forecasting summer storms is still evident. Despite some of the world’s most powerful computer models, they did not pick up the intensity of these storms.

The intensity of these storms were a surprise to many local meteorologists as well. All forecasted scattered showers and thunderstorms, but none talked of potential flooding or anything severe. Many communities received between 3 and 5″ of rain between the two events.

The activity seemed to be centered along and south of the Mass Pike Saturday. On Sunday, this activity shifted along and north of the pike. Places like Boston benefited twice with being in the right spot at the right time for the beneficial rains. Most models were only printing out a 1/4 to a 1/2″ of rain!

These storms were not part of a large scale frontal passage, like we sometimes see in the summer. These storms formed due to a complex combination of cold air aloft and convergience of air masses due to a meandering stationary front draped across Massachusetts.

Any more rain chances in our future? Yes, there are more opportunities of showers and thunderstorms both today & Tuesday. The convergience line I spoke about over the weekend will still be in place today and will be the focal point for more thunderstorms development Later today, though most likely not as widespread as yesterday.

Tuesday will feature yet another day of severe weather across much of New England. Hot & humid air will be well established across most of the region. A cool & dry air mass will be pushing into New England during the day.

With the hot & humid air in place, there is the potential for severe weather, which includes torrential downpours, vivid lightning, and the threat of tornadoes. These will be driven by a more classic scenario with a cold front pressing into a hot, humid summer air mass.

So here we are, the last week of meteorological summer. What? Wait! Already? It’s true! Meteorological marks the period from June 1st, through August 31st. A week from today meteorological summer is over! My goodness is time flying!

Does this mean summer is officially over? No. Astronomical summer does not end until September 22nd! Yes, it’s possible we could begin to feel summer slipping away in the coming weeks. Longer nights means cool air can begin to start settling in across higher elevations and valley locations.

The biggest question I have moving forward, is whether we’ll see real autumn weather this fall, or is it going to be like years past, where summer continues unabated deep into the fall.

If the pattern is any indication, I am inclined to believe another endlesss summer is imminent. NOAA’s outlook from the Climate Prediction’s Center is forecasting a very warm fall again for New England.

Could it be the trend is your friend scenario? NOAA’s seasonal forecasts has always been taken with a grain of salt. However, I must admit, they’ve been on point with their seasonal forecasts for years now. Are they just following the warm trends, or are their skilled forecasters nailing the forecasts? Like many things in life, I believe it’s a combination of the two.

There’s no denying we are in a warming climate. Computer models have caught on to this, as they literally can not see any cold air in a pattern until the last minute.

This is where seasonal forecasts get tricky. There’s always that chance of an abrupt hemispheric pattern change. I’m already noting chilly intrusions of air at the end of August, when computer models just showed warm. This most likely is an island of cool in a sea of warmth…but who really knows?

As of right now, I have to go with the trend. For several interior cities here in New England, this will end up being the hottest summer on record! Computer models are showing the warm weather continuing through the fall and most likely into the upcoming winter.

In fact, CPC’s outlook shows all above normal temperatures across all of the United States for the September, October and November period. This also includes all of Alaska.

They represent this with red color being above normal, and blue color for below. Perhaps you have seen me post these maps at some point in the past?

At this moment, there is no blue color being depicted over the course of the next three months. Taken further, it continues the above normal trends deep into this upcoming winter.

Could there be some cold snaps, and areas of below normal temperatures? Yes, there most always is. Last year, unusually cold weather arrived at this time of the year in western Canada and Montana, leading to very unseasonably cold weather & early winter storms! Oh my!

Some friends have been asking me why they’re seeing some leaves dropping, or actually beginning to change color? Personally, I have not seen it like in years past, but I do know that it’s occurring. Fall foliage typically does not start around here until about a month from now. Of course much earlier up in northern New England.

The truth to the matter is, this happens nearly every year about this time. It really has nothing to do with fall arriving early, or signs of a severe winter ahead.

It has more to do with seasonal climate variations. This summer happened to be a very hot & dry summer up to this point, as it has been for the past several years. This places tremendous stress on old or diseased trees, that rely on water for nutrition.

Because most of New England has been in a moderate to severe drought, some leaves have prematurely dropped, or even turned color. Leaves begin to change color in earnest later in the fall due to reduced sunlight, colder temperatures, and reduced chlorophyll.

As we move deeper into September, I will begin talking more about fall foliage, why leaves change color, and when we can expect the leaves to begin changing!

Before we get there, we have a whole hurricane season to get through! Hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Last week, I mentioned how the late hurricane expert Dr. Bill Gray used to ring a bell on August 20th to signal the start of the peak hurricane season. Yes, we’ve already had many named storms, but nothing compared to what’s about to unfold this season.

Meteorologists and hurricane experts have been closely monitoring two tropical cyclones over the weekend. First is Marco, who has strengthened into a minimal hurricane yesterday. Marco has since weakened back down to a tropical storm, and is expected to track towards the northwest Louisiana coastline later today.

The follow up cyclone is going to be much more of a threat, and is taking a much more favorable track to intensify. Laura will enter the Gulf of Mexico sometime later today, and continue to track in a similar path to Marco.

According to latest computer models, Laura could intensify into a major hurricane, possibly attaining category 3 strength as it approaches the Texas coast sometime on Wednesday. If this verifies, a storm of this strength would result in extensive damage.

If the storm intensifies further to category 4, extreme damage would occur. Some computer models even strengthen the storm to a catastrophic 5 category. While a low probability, there’s always this chance with a tropical storm entering the Gulf of Mexico at this time of the year.

With 2020 being so difficult for so many, nobody wants or needs this type of natural disaster. However, as we have seen time and time again, Mother Nature does not play favors. From wildfires, earthquakes, violent tornadoes & hurricanes…the earth is alive, and we will all feel her wrath at one one point or another in our lifetime!

As if that’s not enough, there are more tropical disturbances ready to develop after Laura & Marco. We have never been this far along in named storms for so early in the season. With an oncoming La Niña & near record warm ocean temperatures, expect this season to reach historical proportions before all said and done.

With the hyperactive season underway, we will most definitely need to be on guard here in New England. I do not see anything imminent, but the pattern does support a hurricane to threaten New England this year. I will monitor this very carefully over the coming weeks.

Boaters and beach goers beware for volatile weather conditions for both today and Tuesday! As mentioned above, the meandering frontal boundary will result in rapidly developing thunderstorms today. Much like yesterday, these storms will be slow moving, resulting in vivid lightning, hail, flash flooding, and strong winds. This would not be a good time to be out in your boat!

Tuesday may see another round of severe weather blow through the region with torrential rains, hail, lightning and thunder. increased wind shear across the region can bring the added threat of tornadoes.

Wednesday and Thursday may be too windy and cool for the beach or especially boating? If you find a protected area, the sun will be plenty warm, so don’t let me discourage you, but it will have that September feel to the air. I’m not talking 60’s, but mid to upper 70’s is still a lot cooler than lower 90’s.

More inclement weather may bring additional rain with the remnants of Laura to the region later Friday into Saturday. We may salvage Sunday for outdoor summer recreational activities to resume.

Now for our weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. More beneficial rains to surprise the drought!

As mentioned above, similar to Sunday, there will be more thunderstorms developing during today. It’s difficult to say exactly where, but it appears areas along the Mass Pike will once again be the target region. It will be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80’s.

Activity will diminish overnight, but the humidity will not go away. It will be warm and muggy, with lows in the lower 70’s.

Tuesday will feature another active and possibly dangerous day of weather across New England. It will be a hot & muggy day, with highs reaching the lower 90’s. A cold front will be pressing into this hot airmass, which will result in severe weather across the region. Please listen to local warnings and advisories from social media and news outlets.

Thereafter, a taste of September is poised to sweep into New England for both Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 70’s during the day and 50’s at night, with breezy conditions.

Another cold front approaching New England may absorb some leftover tropical moisture from Hurricane Laura later in the week. This too has the potential to bring widespread rains to at least southern New England later Friday into Saturday. This should sweep off the coast later Saturday, leading to a drier, sunnier day for Sunday.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my preview for September, and review of August. I will also have a preview of my fall foliage forecast. I will continue my beach and boating forecast for as long as the summer pattern supports it.

In the meantime, there’s a company whose tag line says, “How do you spell relief? It’s T-U-M-S!” For our gardens and ecosystem, it’s RAIN…and we’re finally getting some!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Early Fall…Not So Fast! 8/17/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! In a rather dramatic turn of events, the weather turned decidedly fall like this weekend. Saturday was cloudy, with winds turning onshore, temperatures barely reached 70 across much of coastal Massachusetts. There was even some showers blowing in off the ocean later in the day.

With an intensifying ocean storm off our coast, the weather Sunday went from bad to worse. Northeast winds whipped up the ocean, sending 5 to 10 ft breakers crashing into our beaches. Not exactly an ideal day for the beach or boating!

If you were down the Cape, rain fell for much of the day. This rain eventually inched up to Boston late in the day, making for a miserable end to the weekend.

But who are we to complain?? Nearly every weekend this summer has featured sunny & hot weather! Rain has been non existent this summer across much of eastern Massachusetts. So much so, the region has been upgraded to moderate drought conditions. Many areas are running rain deficits of between 6 and 10.”

This drought is not confined to Massachusetts either. Parts of northern New England, especially Maine, is currently under severe drought conditions.

Unfortunately, the bark was worse than the bite with this storm. Some rain is always better than no rain, but much of southeastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod only received between a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall. Areas to the north and west of Boston received very little to no rain. Not exactly a drought buster!

Was I surprised with the unexpected inclement weather over the weekend…Yes! Very much so! My rating of 9 out of 10 week ahead proved to be an overzealous prediction!

However, I’m not going to feel too disappointed with the missed forecast. First, it was like a bubble that was bound to burst at some point. We live in New England, not southern California! No matter how good the forecast looked, Mother Nature had other plans!

Second, we need the rain! No matter how little fell, we can use every bit that we can get. Even if we had to sacrafice a summer weekend for it. My only regret is that we didn’t receive a good 2 to 4″ soaker!

I always say the skill level for forecasts drops significantly after day 5. In this case, things unexpectedly changed during the middle of the week. If this were winter, many would of received a surprise snowfall!

Moving on. We now are entering the second half of August. There are a couple things to monitor as we head into the homestretch of summer.

First, August 20th is a date to take note! On this date, hurricane season begins a sharp increase in activity, as we rapidly approach the peak of the season on September 10th. The late hurricane expert Dr. William Gray used to ring a bell on this date to signal the start of the real hurricane season.

And right on cue, hurricane season is about to become alive! Over the next two weeks, we will hear of storms and rumors of storms heading towards the Caribbean and southeast coast of the United States. Whether any of these storms turn the corner and head up the east coast towards New England is still yet to be determined.

You already know my concerns about a hurricane threating New England this year. Much higher than average ocean temperatures, a strong Bermuda High, and a deep trough west of New England is leaving New England vulnerable for a tropical storm tracking up the coast this season. We already experienced tropical storm Isaias, which may of been a warning shot as to what’s to come.

Before we worry ourselves about that, many were texting and calling asking me whether summer is now over? I agree, I was a bit taken back by the abrupt change to the cooler weather. After a month’s worth of upper 80’s and 90’s with high humidity, the change was sudden and unexpected!

Are we talking about the end of summer? Hardly! I look at it similar to winter time, when we get a break to the bitter cold and snow, with a mild spell. We are in a break right now, which will last through the rest of this week. Nevertheless, this past weekend cool spell may of been the coolest we feel until sometime later in September!

Temperatures will rebound this week back up into the 80’s. In fact, it may turn borderline hot by this weekend! Are we done with 90 degree days? Again, I respectfully disagree with many experts. I believe we have many more days of warm to hot weather still ahead of us later in August, and for a good chunk of September.

Up to this point, Boston has received 14 ninety degree days. I’m still expecting another 4 to 7 additional 90 degree days before summer finally fades away later in September.

Sunny days and warm temperatures will be the theme of this week after today. Changes can always happen, but at this point, it’s looking like a great week for vacationing and beach weather!

Best days look to be from Tuesday through Sunday, with sunny skies and warm temperatures. Could there be a few showers or thunderstorms? Yes, there’s always a possibility in a warm summer pattern.

Sorry for the unexpected rough seas for you boaters out there this past weekend! An unexpected storm to our south, and high pressure to our north brought northeast winds and rough seas for mariners.

I am not expecting the same fate this week. Therefore, boating should be much improved this week. Be on the lookout for scattered thunderstorms overnight, Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and then again on Sunday.

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I am rating this week an 8 out of 10.

For the rest of your Monday, look for some clouds, along with a good amount of sun. It will be warmer than over the weekend, with highs mainly in the 70’s.

A trough of low pressure will be crossing across the region tonight. There is support in the upper atmosphere for thunderstorm activity overnight extending into early morning hours. Some of this activity may be severe in some communities, so don’t be surprised if you hear some loud claps of thunder!

Whatever happens overnight, will move offshore by early tomorrow morning.

For the period from Tuesday through this Sunday expect splendid summer weather! Look for sunny & warm days and clear and cool nights through Thursday.

Watch for warmer and more humid weather starting on Friday, with temperatures in the mid 80’s for Friday, and mid to upper 80’s Saturday and Sunday. Could some communities hit 90 this weekend? Yes, that’s a possibilty.

Now, could there be a few blips along the way? Yes, there is a chance of a few scattered showers tomorrow night early Wednesday, then again sometime over the weekend, mainly on Sunday as a cool front presses into the warm and humid airmass. I am not expecting any organized washouts this week or over the weekend.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have our latest tropical weather outlook, and beach forecast. I will also answer questions from folks asking why some leaves are already beginning to turn color? In the meantime, say goodbye to our early taste of fall, summer is back!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It’s All About The 90’s! 8/10/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Once again, it was a summery weekend across much of the region. Saturday featured a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the 80’s. Sunday was hotter, with temperatures soaring into the lower 90’s.

With Boston surpassing 90 yesterday, we have now hit 90 degrees 11 times this summer. With three more coming up this week, we will have reached our seasonal average of 14, before mid August!

Today will also be the second day of a 4 day heat wave in the city. This will be the cities third heat wave of the summer.

This is significant! It was only a month ago that Boston only had one 90 degree day. I made the same statement last week, if you think it’s been hot lately, you’re correct! For the period between mid July and mid August, Boston has experienced half these days reaching 90 degrees or better, just in this period!

This is a perfect example of latent heating. In more years than not, our hottest weather arrives well after the summer solstice. This is partly due to delayed incoming solar radiation. It also has a lot to do with ocean temperatures finally warming up to summer levels, leaving the spring chill behind.

By reaching 90 for the 14th time this week, I’m feeling very confident now in reaching my preliminary summer forecast number of between 15 and 20 days made back on Memorial Day.

Looking at some long range computer guidance, I’m highly confident of at least 2 to 4 more 90 degree days during the second half of August. This would bring us to between 16 and 18 ninety degree days so far this summer!

But wait, that’s not the end! Long range guidance continues the warm weather patterns deep into September. If true, we could tack on another 3 to 5 more 90 degree days in September. If this verifies, my updated summer forecast made back on the solstice of increasing the 90 degree days to 17 to 23 could also work out very well!

There’s even an outside shot of entering some uncharted territory this summer. Boston’s hottest summer on record happened back in 1983, when the city hit 90 degrees or better a whopping 30 times!

There have been several summers in history when we made it to between 20 to 23 times. Just a couple years ago Boston experienced a scorching summer with relentless heat and humidity, with 23 days of 90 degree days.

Since 1983, I do not recall any summer with more than 23 days of 90 degree days. So, could this summer go beyond 23 days? I would say it’s a low chance, but it’s not out of the question. Regardless of whether we do or not, it’s going to end up being at least a top ten warmest summers on record in Boston.

Remember, these numbers are at the official weather observation for Boston at Logan airport, which is susceptable to local sea breezes located right on the ocean.

Interior locations have seen double the amount of 90 degree days, both for this year and for record number of 90 degree days. Even interior parts of the city has seen more 90 degree days this summer than at the airport.

This means some suburbs of Boston has seen up to 60 days of 90 degree days in a summer! Some are approaching 30 days this summer. In fact, some locations such as Worcester and Hartford are experiencing their warmest summer on record!

It’s hot! And it’s been warm to hot for several years now! Boston has experienced 5 straight winters with above average temperatures. Summers’s have been even warmer, with 8 out of the last 10 featuring hotter than normal weather.

Any chance of a cool, crisp autumn this year? I am a firm believer in trends and cycles. If you are anticipating a cool, crisp fall, the trend is not your friend. While there’s always a chance of brief pattern change, computer models are forecasting a blow torch pretty much through the rest of the year.

What would this mean for the upcoming winter? Well, if you’re a winter enthusiast, and love cold and snow, you may want to make plans for a trip up into northern Maine or Canada this year. At this early juncture, I do not see much hope for a cold & snowy winter for us down here in southern New England. This could still change! It’s very early, yet!

In the shorter term, I have other concerns about our “paradise” weather pattern heading into late summer and early fall. If you haven’t noticed, most of our region is experiencing moderate drought conditions this summer. You can classify this summer as a hot & dry one so far. I know my lawn looks more like hay these days!

Here are my concerns. I do not believe that this will turn into a longterm drought like we experienced a few years ago. Wow, was that a terrible drought!

It took nearly two straight years of rain every few days to finally catch up with that deficit. So far, Boston is down about 6″, compared to 18″ (cumulative) from a few years ago.

Back in June, I mentioned there is a 60% chance of a strong tropical storm or hurricane striking the region this year. We already had Isaias hit last Wednesday. While not too much of a problem around Boston, there are still many folks in Connecticut that still do not have power!

With the ongoing drought, is Mother Nature setting us up for a hurricane crashing into New England this year? Yes, I believe that this indeed could be the case this summer. We need to be on extreme guard for a hurricane this summer.

Isaias could of been a warning shot, and not a random strike. We saw what winds of 55 to 65 mph did to Connecticut. These were only tropical storm winds. Should we get a full fledged hurricane of winds of between 75 and 100 mph if not greater, could be catastrophic for our region.

Why do I feel the increased threat? There are many reasons. First, our weather patterns a similar to the 1950’s. In that decade, we had destructive Hurricane Carol hit in 1954. Second, ocean temperatures are running at near record warm levels off the east coast. Third, we are way overdue for a hurricane here in New England.

The last hurricane to hit Massachusetts was Bob in 1991. With Bob passing south of Boston, the worst of the storm was felt on Cape Cod, where category 2 conditions and significant destruction were experienced.

Before that was Gloria in 1985. Gloria was a weakening storm as it tracked through central Massachusetts. Nonetheless, it still packed winds of up to 90 mph, resulting in widespread power outages and trees down.

We have to go way back to Hurricane Donna in 1960 before Gloria for a similar storm. Similar to Gloria, Donna was a weakening category 1 as it tracked into New England. This tropical cyclone took a classic track from the deep Caribbean right up along the east coast cutting just west of Boston. Damage was significant across the region.

These storms pale in comparison to the Great 1938 Hurricane. This storm was the worst storm ever to hit New England. I will not get into all the details today, but over 600 people perished in a storm surge down in Providence, R.I. An outrageous wind gust of 186 mph winds was recorded on top of Blue Hill, and Vermont experienced its worst tree damage in recorded history.

No hurricanes or tropical storms are in the short term forecast. I am expecting another fine beach and vacation week for many in New England. Best beach days will be today, tomorrow, part of Wednesday, then later Thursday through Sunday.

Now, there will be a couple interruptions. It’s not going to be sunny every minute of every day. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms later Wednesday.

The front could get hung up along the coast, resulting in early clouds on Thursday. There also is a chance of some showers on Sunday. However, no all day wash outs are anticipated. As longtime Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal always says, “when in doubt, forecast drought!”

I am not anticipating any widespread storm this week. Therefore, boaters should be on the lookout for scattered thunderstorms later Wednesday and part of Thursday. Seas could become choppy once again on Sunday.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a solid 9 out of 10.

For today through Wednesday, expect mainly sunny and hot weather, with heat wave conditions. There is some instability, so there is a slight risk of a few scattered pop up thunderstorms. If you receive one, consider yourself lucky! Temperatures will range between 90 and 95 degrees, along with high levels of humidity.

If skies remain clear enough, check out the Perseid meteor shower, which peaks tomorrow night! Best viewing is away from city lights between 11 pm to 4 am.

A slow moving cold front will be approaching later Wednesday. Before that, temperatures will once agin reach 90 degrees. Later in the day, there is a chance of a line of showers and thunderstorms. Clouds may linger for a time on Thursday, but conditions should improve as we head into the afternoon.

Right now, I’m expecting sunny and warm weather for the period Friday through Sunday, with highs in the mid 80’s, with much lower levels of humidity.

A low pressure lurking off the east coast on Sunday should stay mainly to our south. I am not expecting rain at this point, however, could there be some clouds foul up the day? Yes, but it’s impossible to tell at this point. This is New England after all!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be letting everyone know just how hot the second half of August will be. I will also have a new beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, if you are a fan of summer, you’re on a roll!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

this sets the city up for it’s third heat wave of the season,

Tracking E-SI-E-AS…8/3/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a summery weekend across the region. Saturday was the pick of the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures.

I was disappointed in the amount of cloudiness on Sunday. It was sunny for a time, but clouds and even a few light showers tracked through eastern Massachusetts later in the day. I even heard a rumble of thunder at one point, but very little rain fell.

This was not the case across western Massachusetts, where severe thunderstorms developed. There was even a report of a tornado touchdown in the town of Blandford!

These showers were associated with a warm front moving through the area. As if it wasn’t warm enough, this warm front is going to reintroduce 90’s back into our region today.

If we do reach 90 today, it will make for our 9th day so far this season. Wait, wasn’t there just one not too long ago? If you think it’s been hot…you’re correct! Since mid-July, Boston has accumulated eight 90 degree days!

If you think it’s been hot in Boston, many suburbs have experienced twice as many 90 degree days up to this point! In fact, some deep interior locations such as Burlington, VT and Hartford Conn. have recorded their hottest Julys on record! Oddly enough, Portland, Maine right on the coast has also seen their hottest Julys on record.

Same fate would of been here in Boston had it not been for light seabreezes right along the waters edge first half of summer.

Nevertheless, after a coolish start, temperatures in Boston ended up about a degree and a half warmer than average in Boston, thanks to a much warmer second half of the month. As stated above, it was much hotter inland!

We had some rain from thunderstorms in July, but overall the dry trends continue this summer, with below average precipitation across the Boston area.

What can we expect this August? Looking over latest long range computer model guidance, I would heavily lean towards another warmer than normal month across much of New England.

With ocean temperatures continuing to warm, and an expanding Bermuda High pressure off the east coast, plan on a hot August, with another 5 to 8 days of 90 degree temperatures.

Here’s the difference. We are moving into the heart of hurricane season, which peaks between August 20th and September 20th. We are already onto the 10th named storm in the Atlantic, which is some 6 weeks ahead of schedule!

Active tropical activity could mean higher than normal precipitation along much of the east coast this August. This doesn’t mean it’s going to rain all the time. But when it does, it could be tropical in nature, and lead to above average rainfall.

Many experts were expecting a well above average hurricane season this year. With above average ocean temperatures in the (MDR) Main Development Region, a developing La Niña which results in less wind shear, the Atlantic is primed for a record number of hurricanes this season.

With all that being said, all eyes turn to tropical storm Isaias. Pronounce it as you wish, I’m going with the Spanish version it was meant to be. To each his own!

Earlier in the season, I had mentioned that there was a 60% chance of tropical storm or hurricane striking the region this summer or fall. Is this the storm I was thinking about?

Not necessarily. However, I do believe Isaias is a warning shot to New England residents and much of the east coast to be prepared for a more dangerous storm later this season.

Nevertheless, there is a tropical storm coming, and we must make the necessary preparations to make it through the storm, safely.

Currently, much of coastal New England is under a tropical storm warning. In fact, tropical storm warnings extend inland and covers much of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

A tropical storm is a storm with winds of between 39 and 73 mph. There are all kinds of tropical storms and hurricanes. Some tropical storms are actually worse than hurricanes, especially if they stall and dump feet of rain at a time! It all depends on the speed at which the storm is moving, topography, and how much moisture it has.

When a tropical storm intensifies to 74 mph or greater, it is classified by the Saffir Simpson scale. A cat 1 hurricane has winds of between 74 and 95 mph. A cat 2 has winds of 96 to 110 mph. These storms can be dangerous, and result in extensive damage.

Once a storm reaches 111 too 129 mph, it is classified as a cat 3 major hurricane, with severe damage. Hurricanes that feature winds of between 130 to 156 mph are classified as cat 4 hurricanes, which results is devastating damage.

Believe it or not, there are some hurricanes that exceed this rating, and move onto to rare cat 5 status, with winds of greater than 155 mph!! These storms result in catastrophic damage. Think of Hurricane Andrew back in 1992, or Maria in 2017 which achieved this classification! Catastrophic damage! Puerto Rico still has not recovered from this natural disaster.

Thank God we are not dealing with anything like this! However, the 1938 Hurricane, also known as the Long Island Express because of the speed of the storm that struck New England was a category 3 storm!

This was known as the worst storm to ever strike New England, with 600 people drowning in Providence, R.I. and wind gust to 186 mph wind gust on top of the Great Blue Hill, in Milton, Ma!

Currently, Isaias is a strong tropical storm off the southeast coast. This storm is going to track north along the coast, passing close to N.Y. City, then continue to track through western New England, into Vermont, and New Hampshire, through western Maine up into canada.

With this type of track, eastern New England will be on the right quadrant of the storm. Historically, this is the windy side of the storm, with squally tropical showers. Areas to the left of the center, will see heavy rainfall, gusty winds, with up to 6″ of rain in elevated areas.

Luckily the storm will be moving quickly, which will limit the amount of flooding which may occur. I will have all the details in my forecast shortly.

Now for your beach and boating forecast. Despite the storm, this is going to be an awesome week for beach goers and vacationers! Expect best days to be today, Wednesday PM, then Thursday through Sunday!

Boaters be aware! There will be a period of tropical force winds of between 30 and 50 mph tomorrow evening between 4 and 10 PM. Earlier south of Boston, and later north of Boston. In reality, there will be a two hour period of gusty winds and squalls, sometime in between that time frame.

This is nothing we havn’t experienced before. Just make sure the boat is secured at the dock or moring, and loose items are put away.

Thereafter, expect brisk winds on the backside of the storm on Wednesday, then much better weather for Thursday through Sunday!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. Despite the storm, I will rate this week an 8 out of 10!

Expect sunny and hot weather for the rest of this afternoon. Humidity levels will be surprisingly comfortable, despite temperatures in the low 90’s.

Look for increasing levels of humidity overnight, as the full “Sturgeon” moon rises in the east. Temperatures should hold in the lower 70’s. Clouds will also tend to increase overnight.

Watch for rapidly changing weather conditions for your Tuesday! Expect a tropical type of day, with high humidity levels, and a tropical sky, with some breaks of sun.

Later in the day, as the storm approaches, a fast moving squall line will be approaching, moving from south to north. As this squall line passes, we could see a period of strong winds with gusts up to 50 mph, as well as windswept tropical downpours, which will not last longer than a half hour or so. I’m not expecting a lot of rain here in eastern Massachusetts or up the coast into N.H. Or southern Maine for that matter.

The gusty winds are more of a concern, which could result in some trees down, and scattered power outages.

As I mentioned earlier, the heavy rains will be experienced to the left side of the center, out in western Massachusetts, eastern N.Y. State, and parts of Vermont could see between 2 and 4″ of rain.

We still may see some gusty southwest winds continuing into the evening hours. Expect this activity to quiet down after 10 PM as the storm pulls away.

It could still be a bit breezy on Wednesday, but I’m expecting it to turn into quite a nice day, with lower humidity levels and temperatures between 85 and 90.

Watch for beautiful summer weather to extend from Thursday through Sunday. In somewhat of a northwest flow, I’m expecting low to moderate levels of humidity, with temperatures mainly in the mid 80’s. Wow!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing about our worsening drought conditions across parts of New England. I will also be monitoring to see if there is any more tropical concerns. In the meantime, just get through tomorrow…then time for the beach!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Some Cooler Thoughts! 7/27/20

Hello! Welcome to Florida! With the combination of heat & humidity, Florida seemed to be a good choice for similar type of weather. No doubt, New England experiences climates from all over the world, at one point or another during the course of the year. For today, it’s Florida!

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! We are in the midst of our second heat wave of the summer here in Boston. Saturday was very warm, but fell short of 90 along coastal regions. Sunday was hotter, with many communities, even at the beach, reaching the low 90’s. What a weekend to be near the ocean or a lake!

The peak of the heatwave will be today, where many towns will heat up to between 96 and 99 degrees. It’s not out of the question a few towns hit 100 degrees! Much like last week, the intense heat will ease, but it will still remain very warm in our region.

Of course, weather is all relative…especially temperature. Everyone deals with it differently. Some people thrive in the heat. For Floridians, today’s weather would be a typical day for them. Folks from Arizona may need to reach for a light jacket. For most of us here in New England, it’s a scorcha!

The reverse could be said if a Floridian was up in New England during January! By that time, we would of become accustomed to the cold & snow, while the Floridian would probably be looking for the fastest way out of town!

Yet, we see it all here in New England. One reason why I love our climate so much are the four distinct seasons we experience. Although, one could argue the seasonal shift has mostly eliminated fall and spring in recent years.

Nevertheless, as long as the earth continues to make it’s yearly orbit around the sun, and is tilted at 23.5 degrees, I assure you, the seasons will change!

Because this tilt can shift, it could be be one reason why we experience cycles of warm and cold years. This is very complicated, and to this point has not been scientifically proven. My thoughts are there are many factors involved that result in climate change, this being one of them.

The title of today’s blog was “Some Cooler Thoughts.” We are in the second day of possibly a four day heat wave. Where are these cooler thoughts??

Looking over this mornings weather map, cooler thoughts is not something that jumps out at you.

The long anticipated hotter than normal summer has arrived! After this weeks heat wave, Boston may be up to nine 90 degree days this summer. If you think it’s been hot lately, you’re correct! Boston only had one 90 degree day ten days ago.

This means Boston may end up with eight 90 degree days for July, which would fall in nicely with the 6 to 9 I forecasted at the beginning of the month for July.

The big question moving forward, is can we pull off a similar hot month for August? If we see five or six 90 degree days in August, I believe my summer forecast will verify quite nicely! The summer pattern is only now settling in.

Though we may see a slight cool down to begin August, I believe the heat will come back with a vengeance the second half of August, and most likely will continue for much of September. We could see an additional three to five 90 degree days in September this year.

As mentioned above, we may briefly turn slightly cooler at the beginning of August for us here in New England. Otherwise, it’s looking warmer to hotter than average weather around here for the foreseeble future. Warm weather lovers rejoice!

If your plans take you to Alaska or the Pacific Northwest, you may experience some cooler temperatures in that part of the country.

This has a classic La Niña look to it, (cooler than normal ocean off South America/Pacific side). These ocean temperatures typically bring a surge of hot weather to New England later in August, and many times continuing into September.

At the same time, cooler weather builds in Alaska and Pacific Northwest. An early winter can be expected in these locations if the pattern persists.

If you’re looking for an early fall, with crisp cool days, and frosty nights, this may once again not be our year. Looking at all the long range guidance today, it looks like we have to make it through a very active hurricane season first (perhaps record breaking), then a warm September and October.

Some long range computer models do show an abrupt shift to colder weather come November. This would be very similar to recent years, that featured very warm September and October weather, only to turn colder in November, then back to a warm temperatures just in time for Christmas. Oh joy!

Here’s your weekly beach & boating forecast. Another great vacation week is on the way! Best beach days are nearly daily through next weekend! The only interruption I see may be some scattered thunderstorms moving through tomorrow afternoon, then again possibly Wednesday morning? Otherwise, expect very warm & dry weather straight through Sunday,

Boaters have waited all season for consistent weather conditions. Other than the thunderstorm threat tomorrow afternoon and early Wednesday, expect fairly solid boating conditions with winds less than 25 knots with seas less than 3 ft.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. As mentioned above, great vacation week ahead!

Expect mainly sunny and hot this afternoon and early evening. Moderate levels of humidity will allow temperatures to soar up to between 96 and 99 degrees across the region.

It’s not out of the question a few communities could reach 100 degrees. The combination of hot temperatures and dew point temperatures will result in heat index of between 100 and 105 degrees.

Watch for hot weather to continue well into this evening, with temperatures not falling below 90 until after 9:00 PM. Thereafter, temperatures will slowly ease back to between 75 and 80 degrees by morning.

Tuesday will also feature hot weather. However, an approaching cool front will mean more clouds around. Despite this, temperatures should still make it into the lower 90’s. As the front approaches, there will be a few scattered thunderstorms moving through the area. Some of these may turn severe with gusty winds, vivid lightning and torrential downpours.

With the front close by, clouds may linger along coastal zones and Cape Cod tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. There also may be some additional showers and thunderstorms, especially across southeastern Mass and Cape Cod part of the day.

Wednesday will feature warm temperatures and less humidity. It remains to be seen just how hot it will be. Upper air temperatures support temperatures making another run at 90 degrees in many locations. This will be highly dependent on how much sun we receive, and how quickly the cooler air filters into the region.

As the front slowly pushes off the coast, fair & warm weather should begin to filter into New England Wednesday night.

Look for warm and dry weather for the period Thursday through Sunday. I can’t rule out a scattered shower here and there for Thursday and Friday, but no washout is anticipated.

Temperatures will be warm & summery, but not as hot as today and tomorrow. Expect temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 80’s. Maybe slightly cooler on Saturday, only to warm up to close to 90 again on Sunday.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have our August preview, as well as take a look how July turned out. I will also have a new tropical weather outlook. In the meantime, think of the cold & snow of winter, and you may have new appreciation for the our current heat!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Heat Wave Breaks…But Still Warm! 7/20/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! To put it simply, it was a weekend for the beach! Saturday featured the rare combination of deep blue skies, low humidity and temperatures soaring into the 90’s in most places. Sunday saw a return of the high humidity, along with temperatures which rose to between 95 and 98 degrees across the region.

If you did venture to the beach, I would think one would of have to arrived very early in the morning to find parking and a space on the beach. With the new normal this summer, authorities have taken away public parking spaces for out of towners, limiting the amount of space for people who live near the beaches. This left many denied the right to enjoy the beach this past weekend.

Based upon the reports I saw on the news, beaches were filled to capacity, with folks sitting a little too close to one another for my comfort. Anyway, to each his own. I don’t blame people for trying to escape to beat the heat!

When making my summer forecast back in May I was concerned about this very thing happening. Oppressive heat & humidity during the peak of summer, leading to hoards of people flocking to the beach for relief. Of course 95% of people were not wearing masks. Who would want to wear a mask when the heat index was near 100 degrees in many places?

For this reason I decided to just stay home in my air conditioner! Believe me, there will be plenty more beach days to come this summer! Ideally, it would be wonderful to have a beach house to escape to, then go to the beach or relax on the deck as you please!

So here we are, smack dab in the middle of meteorological summer. You may ask, or I may ask, how is the summer forecast working out so far? While it’s been very warm along the coast, it hasn’t been hot, that is until this past weekend! Much like I envisioned, summer has been very slow to evolve along coastal areas.

Boston, for example, had only experienced one ninety degree day up until Friday. We have now added two more this past weekend, and are about to add a third today. This will bring the city up to four for the season.

Despite a cool front moving through this evening, there may be just enough residual hot air to nick one more 90 degree day tomorrow. Nevertheless, with the third day in a row of 90 degrees today, the city will have reached official heat wave criteria.

Overall, it’s been a very warm summer across much of the northeast. So far, the brunt of the heat has actually been felt more across interior sections than along the coast. I believe Manchester, N.H. has already reached 90 degrees 12 times so far this summer!

To reach my forecast number, I would of already liked to of been around 8 or 9 days of 90 degree temperatures in Boston. No doubt a surprisingly cool end to June placed us behind the curve. Never trust June! While it ended up slightly above average, Boston only had only one 90 degree day, when the average is three.

Despite the slow start, this is par for the course here in Boston. Each of the past 5 summers have gotten off to slow starts. In each summer, the city has finished with between 14 and 23 ninety degree days.

One main reason for the slow start is it takes longer for the ocean temperatures to warm up. Once ocean temperatures reach the threshold, it seems the 90’s arrive right on cue!

Though it may seem late, we still have a good 2 and 1/2 to 3 months of summer weather ahead. Would not surprise me for hot weather to extend well into September and even part of October this year.

For this reason, I’m fairly confident Boston will at the minimum reach 14 ninety degree days this summer, and possibly slightly more. As a reminder, Boston typically reaches 90 degrees 14 times in an average year.

At the very least, I believe this will end up being a warmer than average summer. So far this July is running close to average, but as warm weather persists, it will most likely tilt above average to close the month.

While the start of August may be slightly cooler, it’s quite likely the heat returns with a vengeance later in the month into the start of September. It’s at this time I’m expecting the 90 degree days to pile up! For those who love endless summer’s, this may be the summer for you!

In addition to all the heat & humidity, I am closely monitoring the tropics this season. Similar to summer weather, there is delay in the arrival of hurricane season. This is perfectly normal.

To be honest, the majority of people would rather not have the hurricane season arrive at all. But monitoring development is very important. We have to watch for developing storms so people can prepare for a storms impact.

The country has been through enough already here in 2020. A landfalling hurricane is the last thing people need at this time. With that being said, an impactful hurricane season appears to be a strong possibility this season. I will monitor closely.

Yes, there have been some preseason weak named storms that have developed, but the main show begins in August and peaks in September. Folks try and rush the seasons all the time these days, but Mother Nature stays the course and everything happens in due time. Believe me, it’s coming.

Now for your beach & boating report. Overall, this looks like another great beach and vacation week ahead. Best beach days appear to be today, tomorrow & Wednesday. Somewhat unsettled weather for Thursday will lead to beautiful, summery weather for Friday through Sunday!

More stable conditions should lead to better boating weather this week. Best boating days should be tomorrow, possibly Wednesday, then again Friday and this upcoming weekend.

High humidity will lead to thick fog banks flirting with the the Cape & Islands through Friday. Also, shifting winds & scattered thunderstorms both late Wednesday & Thursday will lead to choppy seas, but nothing extreme.

Now time for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for much of our region this afternoon for heat indices close to 100 degrees. Expect increasing sun this afternoon. As this happens, watch for temperatures to soar up into the middle 90’s across much of the region, except mid to upper 80’s down on the Cape.

A cool front will begin tracking through southern New England later this afternoon. Normally, this would mean severe thunderstorms. However, the air aloft is not quite cold enough to produce widespread activity. Nonetheless, be prepared for isolated quick hitting thunderstorms, especially from Boston points south.

After this front clears the coast, cooler and drier air will begin to filter into the region. This should make Tuesday a fine summer’s day, with humidity dropping to comfortable levels.

Temperatures may not respond as quickly, therefore, some areas especially just northwest of Boston may climb back up into the low 90’s for a time. Even Boston may nick 90 before sea breezes takes over in the afternoon. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s along the coast points south to Cape Cod.

Watch for fair skies and comfortable levels of humidity tomorrow night. It should be a great night to view the Neowise comet! Best to go to a dark, elevated location one hour after sunset.

Look towards the northwest about 10 degrees above the horizon at the base of the Big Dipper, and you should be able to view a fuzzy comet with the naked eye. You will be able to view the icy tail of the comet if you have a good pair of binoculars or telescope. Good luck!!

Wednesday should see a mix of sun and clouds. The one thing we will notice on Wednesday is an noticeable uptick in humidity. Temperatures will be very warm, with highs in the upper 80’s.

As this warm front passes, the humidity will turn quite oppressive for Wednesday night through Thursday. This means lots of morning fog down the Cape. Along with the humidity, there’s also the risk of an afternoon thunderstorm across the region.

A cold front will be approaching New England on Thursday. This front will be pressing into very warm, oppressively humid air. For this reason, Thursday looks to be an active day with the chance of thunderstorms, some of which could turn severe. Temperatures should hold in the upper 80’s. However, if there is enough sunshine, I can not rule out some locations reaching 90 degrees.

As this front clears the coast, Friday & Saturday should see improving weather, with lower levels of humidity, and warm temperatures up into the middle 80’s.

At this point, Sunday is looking like yet another sunny and hot day, with highs near 90 degrees. This would make it the third Sunny, hot Sunday in a row!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking into my August forecast in more detail. August, already?? Oh my!! I will also have your new beach & boating forecast! In the meantime, enjoy the summery weather, we could be shoveling snow 6 months from now!

Thanks for reading!

Pete