Slow Simmer…7/13/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a summery one for sure, with both days featuring very warm to hot weather, with very few if any thunderstorms.

While not hitting 90 at Logan airport, many surrounding towns did reach or slightly eclipse the 90 degree mark. Regardless, it was a great weekend to be away up in the mountains or down by the seashore.

The story for this summer so far, very warm but not too hot, at least here in Boston. I posted on my WeatherBell Forum this morning that it’s actually been hotter in northern New England this summer than it has been in Boston.

Great Blue Hill weather observer Matthew Douglas says it all has to do with the configuration of the upper level pattern. While the desert southwest has been baking with temperatures in the 120’s, many areas along the northeast coast have struggled to reach 90 degrees this summer.

A very strong amplified ridge of high pressure (hot & dry) has developed across the southwest part of the country, and extends through the Great Lakes and across northern New England. The position of this ridge being a tiny bit too far to our west, has allowed cooler air to persist near our coastline.

The issue has been persistant upper level low pressure sitting off the east coast. This trough of low pressure (cool & unsettled) prevents the hot weather from fully reaching the coast.

Light upper level winds have allowed daily sea breezes to form, keeping areas along the coast, including Logan airport from reaching it’s maximum heat potential.

It’s not like it’s been cool around here. June featured above normal temperatures around here. So far, July has been very close to average in Boston, actually a tick below.

Should this ridge axis shift ever so slightly to the east, we would be looking at a much hotter second half of the summer here in Boston and along the coast.

For most folks, being very warm without the extreme heat is the best of both worlds! It’s plenty warm enough for the beach, but not so intolerable that you’re a hostage to your air conditioned bedroom.

My summer forecast called for a hot summer, with between 15 and 20 ninety degree days. I increased this number to 17 to 23 days on my summer forecast update around the solstice. Whether that works out or not, is still yet to be determined.

So far, Boston has only received one 90 degree day! Computer models continue to advertise a much hotter second half of July than the first half. My monthly forecast for July called for between 6 and 9 days of 90 degree days in Boston.

Back in summer 2015, we were sitting at a similar number at a similar time of the year. A very warm hot August that year propelled us to 14 days by the end of the summer.

Looking at some long rang computer guidance, I’m expecting very warm weather to persist over the next three months, August through October. If we can collect six 90 degree days the rest of July, another 6 to 8 on August, and another 2 or 3 in September, I still could come close to my summer forecast prediction. However, as of today, it doe not look good!

At this point in the season, it’s not time to panic just yet. If it were August 15th, and we only had 3 or 4 ninety degree days, then I would have a big problem with my forecast.

I believe the patterns will be similar to past several summers. Delayed hot weather, but once it arrives, it persists into fall. Eventually, the heat across the Midwest will overwhelm the east coast. Persistent spring chill will vacate our region beginning this week!

This should lead to hot temperatures with multiple 90 degree days the second half of the summer. With an incoming La Niña, the warm weather may continue well into September and even October.

The one caveat I see in this whole evolution, is this years hurricane season. We have already reached “Fay” in the named storms this year. You may not of noticed, but a tropical storm tracked up the east coast Friday, making landfall in New Jersey, then raining itself out across eastern Pennsylvania & New York Friday night. A few tropical downpours passed through eastern Massachusetts Friday night, but did not amount to too much.

I mentioned earlier in the season that New England is at a higher risk for a tropical storm or hurricane later this summer and fall. If tropical systems do begin to affect the east coast, heavy rainfall could blunt hot weather predictions.

Regardless of whether this happens or not, the Atlantic hurricane season looks to feature an above average number of hurricanes. Tropical storm Fay could be telling us to watch out along the east coast this year!

Now for your weekly beach & boating forecast. Overall, this is looking like a very good week for vacationers…especially Wednesday, Thursday and next weekend!

For beach goers and boaters, please be aware of thunderstorms today & tomorrow. In fact, I’m already hearing thunder from my weather bunker here in West Roxbury.

These storms will blossom this afternoon and contain torrential downpours, lightning and thunder. Another upper level storm will bring the potential for more showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, after some morning sunshine.

Thereafter, expect cool and dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday, with low levels of humidity. Much warmer weather will begin moving into the region on Friday, with highs in the 80’s. This will lead to hot weather next weekend, with temperatures rising to near 90 each day.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Watch for blossoming showers and thunderstorms this afternoon! Some of these storms may contain torrential downpours, vivid lightning and loud claps of thunder.

Look for evening storms to diminish. If we see any evening sun, be on the look out for rainbows towards the east!

Otherwise, expect clearing and somewhat cooler weather to move in overnight. It won’t be chilly or anything, just more comfortable than what it has been.

Watch for morning sunshine on Tuesday. As mentioned above, an upper level low pressure will be tracking across southern New England during the day. This will result in building clouds, with more showers and thunderstorms developing across the area. With the cold air aloft, these storms could contain hail.

Storms will diminish Tuesday evening, leading to clearing skies and comfortable temperatures overnight.

Sunny and comfortable weather will be the theme for both Wednesday and Thursday. An approaching warm front will bring late day clouds on Thursday, along with the chance of scattered showers Thursday night.

As the warm front moves north of us, southwest winds will be begin to transport warmer and more humid weather into our region on Friday, with highs in the 80’s.

The upcoming weekend looks like classic midsummer weather across much of New England. Expect mainly sunny and hot weather, with highs near 90 each day. Looks like a great weekend for camping in the mountains or at the beach!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next weeks blog, I will be examining the pattern for the rest of July. Will the intense heat finally arrive? I will also have your weekly beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, let’s hope Mother Nature doesn’t turn slow simmer into power boil!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Brief Heat…Then Rain! 7/6/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Fourth of July holiday weekend! With corona virus still running rampant across much of the country, celebrations were notably toned down in many locations.

Yet, across a good part of the country, it was like whack a mole. While municipal fireworks were largely canceled, the skies illuminated across much of the country from folks putting on their own firework displays.

I love watching fireworks, even the store bought ones have become so advanced these days, people can put on their own firework show!

However, what happened this year went far beyond celebrating our nations independence. Lighting your own fireworks to celebrate the 4th is one thing. Most people can understand it…if it’s on July 4th, not May 4th!!

With that being said, the nightly barrage of loud fireworks beginning in May was very disruptive for people trying to get sleep, and for pets sensitive to loud noises.

It was particularly annoying for folks juggling working from home, taking care of kids, and managing to calm down their pets…all during a pandemic.

I would strongly recommend leaving the displays up to the experts…but since there were no shows this year, I can understand the increase in store bought activity.

Let’s hope people used up all their fireworks for this year, and wait until we can celebrate together as one nation next 4th of July!

In many parts of the country, beaches were closed. Yet in Falmouth, Ma. for example, beaches were packed with people like sardines. I’m no medical expert, but this looks like it could spell trouble.

If the rest of the country is any indication on where we are headed here in New England, then I’m afraid we must prepare for another surge in positive cases in the coming weeks. If a second surge does occur, we have no one to blame but ourselves.

While not perfect, the weather was good enough to enjoy spending time outdoors. I was fortunate enough to be able to wrap up work and head to the Cape for a few days to celebrate the fourth in a small family gathering. It was the first time we were able to get together as a group since we all went out to dinner back in February.

As mentioned above, the weather was not perfect. The weather on the 4th itself turned out to be the best day. Early fog burned off, leading to abundant sunshine for the balance of the afternoon. Temperatures were warm, but not hot.

Fog rolled back into the area, but only after evening activities were completed. Sunday once again began with fog and even some drizzle. This too burned off to yield some sunshine during the midday and early afternoon hours. However, the difference with Sunday was that the fog rolled back into the area much earlier than on the 4th.

A line of thunderstorms which rolled through the Boston metro region late Sunday evening, weakened as they headed towards the Cape. While sleeping, I did hear a clap or two of thunder, and a spat of rain, but nothing compared to what folks up in the Boston area received!

If you have spent any time down here on the Cape, you know the climate is different. Cape Cod is a peninsula, that sticks out into the Atlantic Ocean some 75 miles off the mainland.

Because it’s surrounded by the ocean, the climate is greatly modified. Winters are typically milder, and summers are cooler. Many folks retire on the Cape to try and escape the harsh New England winters across the interior. While nor’easters can be fierce, snow typically changes to rain, leading to less snow removal and icy walkways.

This is not always the case! In some winters, the baroclinic zone (thermal convergence) sets up perfectly across coastal New England, including Cape Cod! When this occurs, winter can be severe, with blizzards and bitterly cold winds.

In the summer, the Cape is typically 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Boston. This “natural air conditioning” is due to the marine influence, keeping temperatures reasonable.

However, with the warm air advection over the cooler ocean temperatures, this can result in fog…and a lot of it! In fact, many times while a full fledge heat wave is occurring across the interior of New England, the Cape is usually socked in with fog, with people wearing hoodies!

As summer deepens, the temperature difference begins to lessen. This leds to better weather conditions on the Cape during August and especially September!

While the Cape may be cooler temperature wise, they typically do not escape the humidity! During summer, cold fronts can have a difficult time clearing the coast. Since the Cape sticks out into the Atlantic, the muggy dewpoints can linger on the Cape for days on end.

One other thing about the climate on the Cape. Because the Cape sticks out into the ocean, they are susceptible to hurricanes and tropical storms!

The last direct hit from a tropical storm was Hurricane Bob, back in August 1991. There have been some tropical storms and close calls since, but nothing noteworthy. Hurricane Sandy back in October of 2012 brought hurricane force gusts to the Cape, but that storm took an unusual track, tracking from east to west slamming into New Jersey!

After a couple chilly months, June turned out slightly warmer than average across much of southern New England. Oddly enough, the further north one went, the warmer the departures! Caribou Maine, for instance, saw their warmest June on record! Boston received one 90 degree day, where the average is 2 or 3.

After a very dry start, the month actually ended up with above normal rainfall in many locations in the greater Boston area. This thanks to the unusually very strong upper level low pressure and convergence event on June 28th. Severe thunderstorms delivered between 3 and 6″ of drenching downpours to the region, easing the moderate drought conditions experienced since mid May.

Looking over some early morning guidance, it appears the summer pattern may have established itself. I always mention how I look for ridges of high pressure (hot & dry) and troughs of low pressure (cool unsettled) to establish themselves during the early summer. Sometimes, this can take until later in July to show itself in some years.

For this week anyway, the bubble of hot weather is going to expand across the southwest part of the country, and across the mid Atlantic region. Here in New England, it will turn very warm later in the week, but a persistant trough of low pressure may once again help keep the most intense heat away from New England.

Nevertheless, I’m still expecting between 6 and 9 ninety degree days this July in Boston.

This trough has beeen very persistent across New England past few months, protecting us from hot temperatures. The big question I have is whether this trough is going to linger deep into summer, or will it eventually get kicked out, allowing the hot weather to establish itself.

The change I see in the weather models today is a signal for more rain this month than normal. On average, July is our driest month of the year in Boston. This rain could come from increased thunderstorm activity, and possibly even tropical moisture riding up along the east coast.

With the seasonal shift in place, it appears that this summer could be similar to past summers. Meaning the deeper we go into summer, the warmer it becomes.

At this point, I’m foreseeing a warmer than normal July this year, with heat and humidity increasing the deeper we go into the month. Because July is the warmest month of the year on average anyway, it will feel that much hotter!

I still see no firm evidence to waiver from my summer forecast. I believe eventually the heat will overwhelm the region the deeper we get into summer…most likely continuing well into September, and possibly even October to a certain extent?

Now for your weekly beach & boating forecast. Overall, it’s going to be a warm week across the region. If you’re down the Cape, you may be fighting off daily morning fog. It will also become increasingly wet across the region.

At this point, I do not see any clear cut beach day. You may have to play it by air and go when there’s a break. Both Wednesday and Thursday should feature some hazy sun and warm temperatures after the fog burns off. We may salvage some of Saturday, then Sunday should be decent, especially down the Cape.

If you’re planning on doing some boating, please monitor local forecasts. While no large organized storm is expected, tropical downpours with localized gusty winds will make being on the water challenging at times Wednesday through Saturday.

In fact, a tropical like system may threaten the southeastern part of the state, especially Cape Cod on Friday and early Saturday with downpours and squally weather conditions.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I’m rating this week a 6 out of 10. It’s a challenging forecast indeed, with frontal boundaries separating hot and cool temperatures across the region.

Expect a mixture of clouds and some sun for the rest of your Monday. With winds shifting into the northeast, watch for cooler & drier weather to push down from the northeast as the day progresses. It may be a nice evening for a walk.

Watch for clouds to be on the increase tonight. There will be some showers and thunderstorms, but this activity looks to be mainly across southwest part of New England.

Tuesday may feature mostly cloudy weather, but could also see more sun than anticipated too. It’s one of those play it as you see it days. I’m not expecting much in the way of showers or organized rainfall.

A warm front will begin to move north Tuesday night. This will introduce the chance of some showers and thunderstorms across region. It will begin to turn muggy, with dew point temperatures increasing as well.

After the warm front moves north of our region, both Wednesday and Thursday look steamy, with high temperatures close to 90, along with high levels of humidity. While out and about, be on the lookout for some afternoon and evening summertime thunderstorms, which could contain torrential downpours, thunder and vivid lightning.

A tropical like feature tracking up the east coast may enhance rainfall across the region later Friday and into at least the first part of Saturday. This may contain torrential downpours, which may lead to localized street flooding.

It’s possible the storm may track beyond our area, salvaging a decent Saturday afternoon. A disturbance may kick off more scattered showers and thunder on Sunday, but a washout is not anticipated. Good grief!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing the growing concerns of this years hurricane season, and what role this may play for us here in New England. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast.

In the meantime, get your air conditioners ready, and keep those umbrellas handy! Sounds like typical summer weather here in New England, to me!

Thanks for reading & be safe!

Pete

Unsettled…For A Change! 6/29/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After weeks of sunny and dry weather, the pattern abruptly shifted this weekend! Saturday was warm & muggy with very little in the way of rain. Sunday began like any other late June day, with bright sunshine and very warm temperatures.

A late morning walk up to Millennium Park saw changes brewing! Dark cumulonimbus clouds were encroaching the park from the west. By the time I left the park, I could see & hear thunder moving in!

What followed for the rest of the afternoon was a classic situation of New England climate study. After weeks of no rain, the region saw our moderate drought conditions get washed away…literally in some cases just in one hour away by torrential downpours!

Norwood for example, broke a rainfall record receiving over 5″ of rain in just one hour! This type of rain resulted in flash flooding and emergency rescues in the town.

Other areas, such as the city of Boston, that had received such little rain in the last six weeks also saw nearly a months worth of rain in just a few hours yesterday! Amazing!

In addition, loud thunder and lightning lit up the skies for what seemed like hours yesterday afternoon and into the evening. Somebody on Facebook posted a comment, “The never ending thunderstorm!”

It was bound to happen. It could only stay dry for so long before Mother Nature unleashed her fury! The extreme patterns of the early part of the last decade appear to be returning.

What caused the flooding rains and endless thunderstorms yesterday? As is typical in cases like these, there wasn’t anything on the weather maps that jumped out and said flooding is on the way! Though computer models did do a very good job picking up on activity.

Instead, it was a very inoxeous convergience zone that triggered the activity. These covergience zones have happened frequently earlier in June, just not over the Greater Boston. A couple weeks ago communities south of Boston received 3 to 5″ of rain in a short time. That storm bypassed Boston, leaving us high and dry!

Yesterday, the convergience zone sliced right through the city of Boston and adjacent towns to the southwest including Walpole, Norwood, and Dedham. Winds were coming out of the north to the north of the zone, and east southeast to the south. This results in warm, moist air converging with cool dry air, resulting in towering cumulus clouds, and severe weather.

In this case, the covergience line stalled, allowing storms to keep firing up, and what they call train over the same areas throughout the course of the afternoon and evening.

A cold storm aloft coming out of southern Canada is going to continue these unsettled weather conditions for the next couple days. Cold upper levels storms this time of year can result in unsettled weather conditions, especially when the storm is south of your region.

Any daytime heating of the sun rises up into the atmosphere, where it collides with cold temperatures aloft, resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. The cold air aloft can also mean a good chance of hail in some communities over the next few days.

Such a shame! We definitely needed the rain, but June was shaping up to be such a glorious month this year! I thought we were done with these cold pool aloft storms of this past spring! This is why we still can’t count on June being a true summer month. I always said June can still be a very shaky month, weatherwise…and this proves it!

Last week, computer models were showing a massive building ridge of high pressure (hot & dry) heading into the 4th of July weekend. Looking at today’s data, this no longer looks like the case.

This cold storm aloft looks like it will move off the coast enough for pleasant weather for this weekend, but not far enough to allow the hot weather to surge into New England. For many, this scenario is the most desired! Who wants 95 degree heat while trying to spend time with family outdoors this weekend, anyway!

You may ask, does this pattern change place my summer forecast in jeopardy? At this point, I would say no! Astronomical summer is barely 10 days old. If anything, I probably would of done better if I just left the original forecast of 15 to 20 ninety degree days the way it was.

What happened was I took the bait thinking that the hot weather was going to make a surge into New England late June and into the start of July. This is why I bumped a the numbers by a few days. It is somewhat concerning to me that computer models have been insisting hot air is coming, only to have cooler air somehow find a way to thwart it off.

I’m not too concerned about it at this time. I’m planning on this summer pattern to be similar to past several years. I have statistics showing June being a cooler month that we have had this year, yet the summer finished hotter than average, with between 16 and 23 ninety degree days!

Will this the summer where the streak of warmer than normal temperatures finally break? It’s always possible. But I believe the deeper we get into July, August, and even September, temperatures will respond to my hot summer forecast.

Let’s get to the beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Best beach days appear to be as we head into next weekend, Friday through Sunday. With the cold storm aloft lingering offshore, I can not rule out a few isolated showers.

These showers would likely be focused across eastern New England, if they occur at all, especially during afternoon early evening. No washout is anticipated, and it will be turning warmer, especially come this weekend. With that being said, it is 2020! Let’s hope for the best!

As for the boating forecast, expect winds to mainly be less than 25 knots this week over the open waters. No significant swell is expected, but do plan for periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms. These do not appear to be as severe as they were yesterday. Conditions should improve as we head into the 4th of July weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I am rating this week a 6 out of 10. Too bad the 10 out of 10’s the past couple weeks wasn’t this week!

Expect unsettled weather conditions today through Wednesday. Any early morning sun will be blotted out by dark clouds with fairly widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. Temperatures will be mainly in the 70’s during the day, kept lower with all the cloudiness and showers. Activity should diminish overnight, however areas of fog and drizzle may persist down the Cape and coastal regions.

The weather should begin to slowly improve Thursday and Friday. There should be more sun in the mornings, and warmer temperatures. However, unstable conditions aloft will result in building clouds and the chance of scattered afternoon and evening showers across the region. Temperatures should warm up to the upper 70’s and low 80’s.

As for the 4th of July holiday weekend forecast, expect mainly dry and warm weather. However, as mentioned above, the storm lingering offshore could still result in some afternoon cloudiness and scattered showers in some coastal locations. A washout is not expected. Enjoy!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the month of June, and preview what we can expect for July. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, we can change how we act, change our beliefs, but we can’t change the weather! Enjoy each day as it comes!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy & safe 4th of July, to all!

Summer update: Looking Hot! 6/22/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was the first official weekend of summer, and the weather played every bit the part. Temperatures soared into the lower to mid 90’s on Saturday, with moderate levels of humidity. Father’s Day was on the hot side too, with many locations reaching the 90’s again, away from the immediate coast.

A swirling storm southeast of the Cape, helped to push a seabreeze front inland later in the day yesterday. The convergence zone brought torrential downpours along Rt. 128 from the Randolph, Dedham region, up north along Rt 128 through Waltham.

These storms were accompanied by loud thunder and gusty winds. Though not in the bullseye, I could hear the loud thunder from my home in West Roxbury. I also received a heavy downpour, but did not see the flooding rains areas just inland from me saw.

It was fascinating watching the seabreeze front move inland on radar yesterday. As the front passed, temperatures dropped 10 to 15 degrees along the coast. As the cool air collided with the warm, tropical air, thunderstorms fired up right along the Rt 128 corridor. Some communities received nearly 2″ of water!

If you were lucky enough to be under one of these thunderstorms, consider it being the thunderstorm lottery! A good soaker for the gardens and lawns. These were what meteorologists call “garden variety” storms. These were slow moving isolated storms, certainly not the widespread rain the region desperately needs.

For folks down the Cape, they’re wondering what rain? Many were socked in with fog! Yes, this type of pattern typically results in foggy mornings across Cape Cod. This is due to the very warm, humid air passing over the relatively cooler water. This cools and condenses into a cloud on the ground, called fog.

Looking over the long range patterns, folks on the Cape can expect many mornings with dense fog this summer. This is typical, and the sun usually burns off the fog by late morning.

Nonetheless, vacationing on Cape Cod is a most relaxing experience. No doubt the climate is different, than the mainland. Cape Cod is a peninsula, that sticks out about 75 miles into the Atlantic Ocean.

Marine air modifies the climate, making it cooler in the summer, and milder in the winter. However, because it extends out into the Atlantic Ocean, it makes it susceptible to fierce nor’easters, hurricanes and tropical storms.

Most afternoon summer thunderstorms fizzle before they reach the Cape. During the summer, the Cape receives much of their moisture from stalled fronts. It’s not uncommon for several inches of rain to fall within 24 hours down the Cape. These fronts are typically associated with plumes of tropical moisture that train over the same area several hours at a time.

In case you missed it, summer officially arrived on Saturday at 5:48 PM! From this point forward, we will begin to lose daylight. No worries, it’s only seconds at first. You really won’t begin to notice the difference until later in July. However, even as early as July 4th, we would already have lost one minute of daylight!

This begins to accelerate come August, and especially in September. Our warmest weather typically lags behind the solstice, not arriving until July and August. With that being said, we can’t stop the march of the seasons, fall will be knocking on the door soon enough!

Before we start talking fall, it looks like we have quite a summer to get through!

Back on May 25th, I posted my preliminary 2020 summer forecast. Because things can change, I began a policy of reviewing the data, and posting a secondary update around the winter and summer solstice.

After reviewing all the latest guidance, I feel very confident that my original forecast back in May is looking fairly solid at this point, along with a few tweaks.

As a reminder, I’m calling for a hotter than normal summer this year. I rate how hot our summers are by how many 90 degree days we receive over the course of the summer.

Two years ago, summer of 2018, could possibly of been the hottest summer I have ever felt in Boston. Many have short memories, but for those who remember, Boston broke all kinds of warm season records that year.

Not necessarily for the amount of 90 degree days, we had 23 that summer, but it was the relentless humidity and oppressive dew point temperatures that made it unbearable right into September.

I believe we saw a record number of days with dew point temperatures above 70 degrees. We also broke records for the amount of nighttime lows which stayed above 70 degrees.

Last summer was less hot, but that’s relative. Yes, it was less hot than 2018, but the summer still featured more than average 90 degree days, while still featuring high dew point levels.

After a slight reprieve last summer, I believe the hot weather is going to come back, and already has, with a vengeance this summer. Boston typically averages 13 or 14 days of ninety degree temperatures in an average season.

After reviewing the latest guidance, I’m going to increase the 90 degree days to between 17 and 23 in Boston for this summer. On Saturday, Boston reached 90 for the first time, and may see another 2 or 3 before June is done. Inland locations northwest of Boston has already seen 4 or 5 days depending on which town you live in.

I’m talking hot! The concern is it could be even hotter than what I’m forecasting here. I’m anticipating Boston to reach 100 degrees once or twice this summer.

I’m increasing the amount of 90 degree days for a few reasons.

First, the dry weather which began in May and has continued into June, is resulting in dry soil levels. With the sun angle the highest of the year, this can result in feedback, where the dry soil can result in hotter temperatures.

Second. Hot weather arriving around the solstice is a good signal for more intense heat arriving in July and August.

Third. Computer models are signaling a continuation of drier than normal conditions extending deep into the summer. In addition, many models continue to show a ridge of high pressure (hot & dry) persisting especially across New England this summer.

Furthermore, a developing La Niña typically brings hotter than normal weather to the east coast later in the summer into the early fall,

Concerns? Yes. I am very concerned about the upcoming hurricane season. The east coast is more vulnerable than normal this year, and this includes southern New England.

If the tropics become active earlier rather than later, plumes of tropical moisture could begin drenching the east coast staring in August, diminishing the hot weather earlier than expected. This would be good news in alleviating drought worries, but could then pose concerns of flooding.

If high pressure remains strong, summer could continue well into September and even October this year.

Now for your beach & boating forecast. I will rate this week an 7 out of 10. For boaters, be on guard for the chance of showers & thunderstorms from Wednesday through Sunday. Though no washout is anticipated on any given day. A front will be in the vicinity through this period, and may spark off some scattered activity.

Winds do not look to be an issue, but could get squally in frontal passage and scattered thunderstorms.

For beach goers, best beach days appear to be today, tomorrow, Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Though no wash out is anticipated, scattered showers and thunder could pose a threat on Wednesday and over the weekend.

Here’s your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect warm weather for most of this week. However, a cold pool aloft will be close by later this week into next weekend. This could be close enough to spark some scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across northern areas.

Expect partly sunny skies this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler along the coast, with highs in the 70’s. Areas west of Rt 128 will be in the 80’s. Locations west of I495 will be hot, with temperatures in the 90’s.

There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms across inland areas this afternoon.

This activity will diminish tonight, and lead to clearing skies, with lows in the 50’s and 60’s.

A stronger southwest wind on Tuesday could result in much hotter weather returning closer to Boston Tuesday. A light seabreeze could keep the immediate coast slightly cooler, but many areas could make it into the 90’s again. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow.

Expect hot weather to continue for Wednesday, but with a front approaching, there is a greater chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Highs will generally be in the upper 80’s and low 90’s.

It still should be warm to hot on Thursday, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80’s. Thunder is a possibility.

If the front pushes east of our region, there could be some relief Friday and Saturday with less humidity, and slightly less hot temperatures. With a cold pool aloft close by, there could be some afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. No washout is anticipated.

A return southwest flow could mean hot weather returning Sunday and well into next week. Honestly, I see no end to the warm to hot temperatures at this point through the 4th of July at least.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my 4th of July weekend forecast! I will also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, if you’re a fan of hot weather, this appears to be your summer! Enjoy!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Feeling More Like Summer! 6/15/20

Hello! I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy their weekend! Overall, it was quite a gorgeous weekend…if it were September! Yes, it was sunny most of the weekend, but chilling seabreezes along the coast gave it a rather fallish feel if you were at the beach.

Nonetheless, I did not hear many complaining. Many would take the cool weather with low humidity levels over the sticky feel to the air we experienced at the end of last week.

We have a long summer ahead of us, and there will be plenty of hot & humid weather to go around for those who love the heat!

Just because we’ve had a few days of coolish weather, do not be lulled into thinking a cool summer is on the way. Most long range guidance that I’m looking at continues to portray a rather hot summer coming.

The drier than normal weather we’ve been experiencing this June will only exasperate the hot temperatures. The one saving grace which I see, is that the lack of rain here in early summer may mean the humidity may not feel as swampy as it could be.

This is just my observation based on simple principles. If there’s less moisture in the soil, there will be less water to evaporate from the ground. In theory, this may make this summer feel less muggy on our bodies than past couple summers, when we had above normal rain & wet soil levels in June.

With that being said, we may actually see hotter temperatures this summer. Dry soil levels means the sun does not have to work as hard to heat the air temperature where we live at ground level.

Less moisture in the ground could mean hotter temperatures. I would not be surprised if Boston reaches 100 degrees this summer one or two times. Boston’s hottest temperature on record was 104 degrees set back on July 4th, 1911.

One of my methods in making my summer forecast, is trying to determine where a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) will be located. Where this high pressure is located, is where you will find the most intense heat. I like to call these areas “heat bubbles” or “heat domes.”

In contrast, there most always is an area of trough of low pressure (cool & wet), or “cool pockets” of persistant cooler air and unsettled weather conditions. Fortunately for us here in New England, most of these “cool pockets” occurred in April and May of this past spring.

According to the latest computer guidance, it appears as if the trough is going to be located west of New England this summer, across the Midwest. Therefore, they can expect a cooler and wetter summer this year.

This would leave New England vulnerable to a ridge of high pressure off the east coast. This high pressure is also known as the “Bermuda High” and is strongest during the summer months.

High pressure circulates clockwise in the atmosphere. With the high pressure in this position, it would pump hot south and southwesterly winds into New England from the tropics and Deep South. This is why I’m still expecting between 15 and 20 ninety degree days in Boston this summer.

After a cool start this week, it appears as if this pattern will take no time in getting established later this week. In fact, I’m expecting Boston’s first possible heat wave to arrive beginning later this week extending into the weekend.

To classify as an official heat wave, we must experience three consecutive 90 degree days in a row. Predicting heat waves this time of the year can be tricky near the coast. With ocean temperatures still chilly this time of year, it may be questionable in Boston. We may see only one or two 90 degree days.

However, many communities away from the light seebreezes 10 miles inland from the ocean should experience 3 or 4 consecutive days of 90 degree temperatures later this week.

This is not mid-summer heat…yet. On average, Boston sees 3 ninety degree days in June. Week pools of cooler weather will continue to swing into New England via southern Canada from time to time the rest of June. This should keep temperatures from getting out of hand. Look at this as a warmup for the hot weather slated for July and August!

One more detail. I am always very wary about hot weather close to the arrival of the summer solstice. Mother Nature maybe tipping us off that this could be a recurring pattern for the upcoming summer. As we get deeper into summer, this typically translates into even hotter temperatures and longer heat waves.

Our hottest averages is still a few weeks away from arriving, but the sun is almost at its full strength around the solstice. Not only are days the longest, but the angle of the sun is very high, blasting full strength radiation on us. So while air temperatures may still only be around 90, the sun and long days will make it feel that much hotter!

Before I get to the forecast, there is one more concern I would like to mention. I have mentioned that an active hurricane season appears to be on the way.

If this pattern establishes itself, it could make a path for storms to ride up the coast into New England later this summer. Some computer models are showing above normal precipitation in August…which typically is from tropical storms. I will continue to monitor.

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. This does not occur too often in June, but this looks like a spectacular week for beach and boating alike!

Incredibly, expect sunny and dry weather from today straight on through the weekend. As the heat builds, there’s a chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm later Saturday and Sunday, but no washout is expected at this time.

Boating conditions should also be a big thumbs up this week! Seas may become a bit choppy later this week with southwesterly winds, but no marine advisories are anticipated at this time.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I am rating this week a 10 out of 10!

Look for mainly sunny skies the rest of today. With onshore winds, temperatures will be a little cool along the coast, with highs in the mid to upper 60’s.

It will be fair and cool tonight, with lows mainly in the 50’s.

For the period of Tuesday through Sunday, expect mainly sunny skies with a warming trend each day. Expect high temperatures to be in the 70’s tomorrow, mid 80’s on Wednesday, close to 90 Thursday through Saturday, then and back into the mid 80’s on Sunday, along with higher levels of humidity. If you live 10 miles inland from the coast, you can add 3 to 5 degrees to these temperatures.

Happy summer this weekend! On Saturday, June 20th at 5:44 P.M. The summer solstice arrives! This will mark the longest day of sunlight of the year. From that point forward, we begin to lose daylight. Just a few seconds at first, but it begins to accelerate as we head into late July and especially August.

My sister Pam is always disappointed when I mention that the days will begin to shorten! What! Already?? However, I always tell her our warmest weather of the summer still lies ahead in July and August! Then all is forgiven!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting an update on my summer forecast as promised around the solstice. I’m not expecting any big changes, but I will review the latest data just in case there are any last second shifts! I will also have your new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the feel of summer…we all know what season comes next!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Wishing all the great dad’s out there a Happy Father’s Day!

JUNE…can be nice! 6/8/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a changeable weekend, weather wise. Saturday was a real summer day, with high humidity, and temperatures just shy of 90.

Later in the afternoon, a cold front triggered a line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which were severe across the region. Another round of gusty showers moved through during mid evening.

After these showers moved off the coast, much cooler and drier air flowed into the region! This set up a much different day on Sunday. A cold pool aloft resulted in quite a bit of instability clouds, along with a few light showers and sprinkles. It was also a good 25 degrees cooler, with highs only in the mid 60’s!

This is not uncommon in early June. Warm spells typically do not last too long, neither do cool spells.

June is yet another transition month to summer. Although meteorological summer began last Monday, astronomical summer does not arrive until June 20th this year.

As mentioned in previous posts, June can be a tricky month weather wise. Leftover cool air from the winter, can still make its way down into northern states from time to time.

For example, there is currently an ongoing June snowstorm in Idaho & Montana this morning! While not unprecedented in this part of the country, it is getting very late in the game for such occurrences.

Here in New England, June can swing either way. While snow typically does not fall, there have been very late season snowfalls observed in our mountains in June! I believe Mt. Washington had snow the first day of June this year!

For us here in southern New England, there has only been one observance of any snow falling in June. It was a summer lover’s nightmare come true!

The year was 1816, and it has come to be known as “The Year Without a Summer.” It was a summer like no other! Snow fell in many parts of New England during June, even close to Boston flurries were observed! Frosts and freezes continues through the entire summer, leading farmers to abandon their crops and flee New England!

What caused the unusual cold summer? It was in April of that same year, when the Indonesian volcano Mt. Tambora exploded in one of the largest volcanic eruptions ever recorded!

The volcano ejected so much ash and aerosols into the atmosphere, that it blocked the sunlight close to the eruption for days. That was just the beginning of the story. The aerosols spread out across the entire earth, dramatically cooling the climate.

High level jet stream winds transported these aerosols and particulates straight across New England, which had an adverse affect on our summer patterns.

Temperatures temporarily cooled, resulting in the jet stream to track much further south than its typical summertime position. This resulted in cold fronts being able to sweep down from southern Canada. It was so cold, that snow fell in New England, much as if it were like winter.

Eventually, the aerosols dissipated, and the climate warmed back up to normal levels the following year.

Thank goodness I do not see any catastrophic volcanic eruptions to foul up our summer weather this year!

As mentioned above, we are still susceptible to late season cool spells in June. Some years, June can be very unsettled, with frequent showers and even an occasional late season nor’easter! This is a result of cool stubborn air masses clashing with building summer heat to our south.

In fact, the past several June’s have been quite unsettled. You wouldn’t remember because the summer’s have all turned out glorious! Fortunately for us, it appears as if most of the cold, unsettled weather occurred during April and May this year.

The timing could be perfect, leaving the opportunity for us to enjoy a spectacular June for a change. Building heat waves to our west and southwest, will be temporarily cut off from surging into New England by cool, dry air located in southeastern Canada. This could bring a pleasant equilibrium mix of cool days, punctuated by warm days!

As far as the summer forecast goes, I still see no reason to deviate from my forecast made on May 25th. if you recall, I’m calling for a hotter than normal forecast, with between 15 and 20 ninety degree days, with near average precipitation.

We do need to keep an eye on that precipitation forecast…it could trend dryer than anticipated.

We have entered a very dry stretch since mid May. I’m not declaring drought, but just something to monitor in the coming weeks. Sometimes, these dry areas develop feedback. As soil levels begin to dry out, high pressure can intensify, keeping precipitation away, eventually leading to moderate to severe drought. This is exactly what happened a few years ago, and we don’t want to go back there, again!

One other thing to watch out for. With soil levels drying out, this can sometimes lead to even hotter temperatures, as the sun doesn’t have to work as hard to evaporate moisture from the soil.

Interestingly enough, there are a couple computer models insisting on a cooler summer this year. I’m not buying this outlook. There actually are a few meteorologists out there who have already lowered there temperature outlook for this summer. These forecasts have been coming from American based models, who have been notoriously wrong with their seasonal forecasts.

The European model has been steady, showing a near average June, then very warm weather for July through September and perhaps beyond. Judging from its track record past several years, I’m going with that solution.

Nevertheless, I will be looking over the latest guidance, and have my final summer outlook near the solstice, just in case I need to tweak anything.

One thing there is universal agreement on is the upcoming hurricane season. With a developing La Nina, warm ocean temperatures, it’s looking like a very active hurricane season. We’ve already had three named storms, and the season officially just began just last Monday!

Here’s your beach and boating forecast. For early June standards, this is looking like a very summery week, overall! The best beach days will likely be today, tomorrow, and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

There will be increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold front approaches, this could end up being the most inclement day of the week.

We may briefly dry out Friday, however another disturbance will arrive on Saturday and Sunday, bringing cooler weather, and a chance of more scattered showers. All day washouts are not anticipated at this time. In this fast flow, timing may be off a bit, so check with local media outlets for latest forecast.

Boating looks good for today through Wednesday, then again Friday?. Thereafter, expect choppy conditions with a building swell Thursday through Saturday, as frontal passages create shifting winds and rain showers. As mentioned, winds may calm down a bit for a decent boating day, Friday.

Now time for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect an exquisite June afternoon, with sunny skies, warm temperatures and low levels of humidity. Dare I say a perfect 10? It will be close! A great day for an evening walk! Highs will be in the mid to upper 70’s.

Watch for the fading Strawberry Moon this evening, under mainly clear skies. Temperatures will fall back into the 40’s and low 50’s. Warmest in urban areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be warmer, with increasing humidity. I do not think we’ll hit 90, but we will come close like we did last week. Look for highs to be in the mid to upper 80’s, with increasing levels of humidity, but not oppressive.

A cold front will be approaching on Thursday, and will bring with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This is especially true in the morning, then again during the afternoon. It will continue to be warm and muggy, with highs in lower 80’s. I would monitor future forecasts, and not cancel plans at this point. An all day rain is not anticipated at this time.

Friday looks mainly sunny, and somewhat cooler, with highs near 80. Another possible beach day?

Another disturbance tracking northwest to southeast may bring a few scattered showers over the weekend. Best chance for this appears on Saturday, with cooler, drier conditions moving in for Sunday. Wow! That’s quite the scorecard to keep track of!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about our June pattern in more detail. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the pleasant June weather, she’s not always this nice!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Birthday to my most loyal fan…my sister Pam!! (June 11th)~

Happy Meteorological Summer! 6/1/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Weather wise, it was quite beautiful. Saturday was the warmer of the two day, with highs in the 80’s along with a high dose of humidity. Sunday features deep blue skies, drier more refreshing air, with highs barely making it to 70.

I was chatting with my friend Kevin and he disputed the claim of it being a “top 10” weather day around the Boston area. He felt it was much too cold to be considered this.

Actually, temperatures were closer to “seasonal” levels yesterday. I agreed that temperatures should of been 10 degrees warmer to be considered a top ten day of the year. It was nice, but did had that fall feel to it. We sometimes do throw that “top 10” rating around too loosely.

Temperatures last week were much above normal across much of New England. Some locations that experienced accumulating snowfall and record cold just a few short few weeks ago, saw some of their hottest temperatures ever recorded for the month of May.

In fact, Montreal Canada experienced its hottest May temperature on record last Wednesday when the temperature at Trudeau airport reached a scorching 98 degrees! It was also hot in Burlington, Vt. and much of northern New England last week.

You may ask, how could it be hotter in cities that are much further north than Boston? The ridge of high pressure was set up for a classic interior and northern New England heat wave. Southerly winds blowing over the still cold Atlantic Ocean kept temperatures slightly cooler along east facing coastal cities.

Cooler yes, less humidity…no! Here we go, starting with that awful dew point temperature here in late May! This is not a good omen for this upcoming summer if you do not like humidity!

Then we came full circle to end May. Places that had all the heat last week plunged back into cold weather with frost last night! Even here in Boston, temperatures plummeted down into the 40’s. It was delightful seeing all the humidity get squashed, but it did suddenly had the feel of fall last night!

After what seemed like months, possibly even a couple years dating back to the 2018-19 winter of benign weather, the extreme patterns of the early 2010’s seem to be slowly returning.

Although spring 2020 featured near average temperatures and precipitation, how we go there was nothing short of spectacular! March saw well above normal temperatures and dry conditions. This was followed by a very cold & wet April. May began very cold & wet, even with snow in many places, only to dramatically warm up the last 10 days of the month. The month ended with below average temperatures for the second straight month in a row since about one year ago.

Though we had two straight below average months, the warmer than normal months far outweigh the cold months. Over the last three years, I believe Boston has experienced roughly 27 out of 36 months of above average temperatures. Interesting, most below average months occurred during spring, and late fall with following summer and winters turning excessively warm.

Is it just a cycle, or are we experiencing a large climate shift that could last for at least a decade or more? Some experts believe these mild winters and hot summers could last another 10 years. For many, this would be music to their ears!

This topic is extensive, complex, and would need further discussion at some point when time permits!

Welcome to meteorological summer! Due to changing astronomical dates, meteorologists prefer to break the seasons up into four even quarters for better record keeping. In case you’re following, Astronomically, summer begins on June 20th this year!

June 1st also signifies the start of the 2020 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. Most experts are anticipating a very active hurricane season this year.

Based upon what I’m seeing, I can not argue against this. Very warm ocean temperatures will help to strengthen storms into hurricanes. More importantly, conditions in the Pacific Ocean favor a La Nina to develop later this summer and early fall. If true, this prohibits wind shear associated with El Nino conditions. This allows good ventilation for the storms air to rise, and develop thunderstorms.

A third factor is a strong Bermuda High in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Counterclockwise circulation around the Bermuda High will steer tropical storms westward, towards Florida and the east coast.

Depending on steering currents, these storms can either track into the United States, or sometimes track up along the east coast threatening New England or the Canadian Maritimes.

We’ve already had Arthur and Bertha, and soon Christobal forming in the Gulf of Mexico. This is three named storms, and hurricane season does not end until November 30th!

Christobal is showing good structure this morning, and it’s still over land. If this tropical depression drifts into the Gulf of Mexico, we could be looking at a strengthening hurricane as it tracks towards the northwest coast of Texas.

Early season data suggests New England should be on guard for a possible tropical cyclone strike late summer or fall. I mentioned earlier that I believe there is a 50% chance of this occurring. This is a higher percentage than normal years. It’s 2020, so why not?

Last week, I posted my seasonal forecast for the upcoming summer here in Boston. I have no changes to report. I am expecting near to slightly above average temperatures for June, with 3 to 5 90mdegree days. This is slightly higher than the 3 we typically see in June.

I’m then expecting hotter than normal weather for the remainder of summer from July through September. At this moment, I am expecting between 15 and 20 ninety degrees days this summer. Get your air conditioners ready now! If you can find any!

A couple of concerns. May turned very dry across the region, and this could extend well into June. If this dryness continues, temperatures could be even hotter than what I’m expecting this summer.

In addition, a dome of high pressure could result in less thunderstorm activity, prompting areas of drought to re appear. We are already have been abnormally dry conditions. Later in the summer, tropical activity could soak the region with flooding rains.

I will keep everyone updated, as there are always some surprises!

Now for your weekly beach & boating forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Not too uncommon for the first week of June. Best beach days looks to be Thursday, Friday, and maybe Sunday this week. Temperatures look very warm, with highs in the 80’s Thursday and Friday, but dropping to low 70’s on Sunday.

As for boating, much like the beach, don’t expect great boating weather here at the start of June. Seas can be choppy, with shifting winds and volatile weather patterns. Look for the best days to be today, Thursday and possibly Sunday.

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect building clouds this afternoon, with a chance of some scattered rain showers. No washout is anticipated. It will be cool for June 1st, with highs only in the low 60’s!

Skies should clear overnight. It will not be as chilly as last night, but still, lows could drop into the 40’s and low 50’s region wide.

Tuesday will feature some sunshine in the morning, then building clouds during the afternoon. Later ion the day, there could be some scattered showers tracking through. Not a washout, but be aware if you are planning an evening walk.

A fast northwest flow aloft will bring the chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Friday. Again, an all day rain is not anticipated, but some wet periods are expected. Temperatures will be near 80 on Wednesday, and lower to mid 80’s on Friday depending how much sun we receive.

Watch for the beautiful full “Strawberry” moon rising in eastern skies Friday evening! Native Americans named it this moon, because strawberries are plentiful in June.

If you have Thursday off, you picked a good one! Expect mainly sunny weather, with temperatures warming into mid 80’s!

Saturday could be very similar to last Saturday. An approaching front could spark a few showers or thunderstorms across the region, depending on timing. An all day rain is not anticipated. It will be warm and on the muggy side, with highs similar to Friday.

A front should sweep off the coast later Saturday, bringing a return of cooler and drier weather on Sunday, with highs in the lower 70’s with breezy conditions.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor my summer forecast, leading to my final forecast around the summer solstice. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the cool start to summer, it will not feel this way three months from now!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer 2020: Warm Trend Continues! 5/25/20

Hello! I hope everyone is enjoying their Memorial Day weekend! Unfortunately, the taste of summer we experienced at the end of last week, was abruptly cut short!

As advertised, Friday was an early taste of summer, with many locations reaching the low to mid 80’s across the region. After a rather steamy Friday night, a backdoor cold front came crashing through early Saturday morning. This was ushered in by very gusty northeast winds off the ocean which sent temperatures crashing into the 50’s….some 30 degrees colder than Friday!

Oh, but it could of been a lot worse for the Boston area points north. At least we were protected with that strong area of high pressure building out of eastern Canada I spoke of last week!

A fairly strong low pressure for this time of the year, traveled along the boundary of warm vs. cold. This storm was more like a winter like set up, with heavy rain falling across the Cape & Islands on Saturday. In fact, Martha’s Vineyard received over 3″ of rain with flooding!

If you live in the Boston area points north, you would be asking, what rain? While we didn’t receive any measurable rainfall in Boston, the cold wind off of the ocean kept people from heading to the beach, or any other outdoor activities for that matter!

As mentioned last week, this wind was a result of the pressure difference between high pressure to the north, and low pressure to our south. Not an ideal set up if you were hoping for a hot Memorial Day weekend! In fact, many people in New England had to either light a fire, or click on the furnace for heat!

Why all the sudden changes? Well, it’s complicated. I will try to explain it as best as I can, so everyone can understand!

I mentioned last week May and even June to an extent are transition months. We are technically very much still in the spring season. In addition, that seasonal shift we have been experiencing for the last decade or so, and it was no surprise winter finally showed up when April began!

I also talk a lot about latent heating and cooling. I mention this often, because it’s such a important part of our climate here in New England! Bottom line, it takes longer for our oceans to heat up during the spring than the land.

Because so much of New England is exposed to the Atlantic Ocean, we are susceptible to stretches of cold, unsettled weather during spring.

I was chatting with my good weather friend William from Denver, Co. who grew up in Milford, Ma. who knows all too well the fickleness of New England weather, that it all depends on the wind direction around here!

Friday and Saturday was perfect example! Friday, winds were blowing offshore, which allowed our temperatures to soar into the 80’s! Saturday, winds shifted onshore from the northeast, plummeting temperatures into the 50’s!

It has a lot to do about imbalance, and Mother Nature trying to balance things out. Warmer air is lighter, and rises quickly. To replace that air, colder, dense air from the ocean rushes in to fill the void. As we move deeper into the summer, this air becomes more buoyant, and the difference is not as great.

Another reason for the rapid changes, was the collapse of the winter Polar Vortex. Remember the record warm winter Boston just had? Well you can partly thank the extremely strong Polar Vortex for that!

When the Polar Vortex is strong, we typically experience mild winters. When it’s weak, it elongates, delivering lobes of cold air into the mid latitudes where we live. If it splits into several vortexes, the resulting weather can be severe, with extreme cold and blizzards.

What happened this spring was interesting. Instead of just fading away, the vortex split in March. This buckled the benign jet stream of the winter, sending cold air charging down from eastern Canada. It was too late to bring us blizzards, but it certainly fouled up our warm weather patterns of winter!

Traditionally, Memorial Day weekend is the unofficially start to the summer season. Folks open up the summer cottages, go camping, or maybe go to the beach if it’s warm enough. It’s also about the time I post my summer outlook for our region.

Due to very volatile weather patterns in recent years, I allowed myself to write a preliminary outlook on Memorial Day, then give myself a chance to post an update if I see any changes around the summer solstice. There’s no doubt , seasonal forecast has become more challenging in recent years.

I also wanted to let you know much of the volatility has centered towards the winter outlooks, which used to be my specialty! I will admit, the last two winter forecasts were exceptionally poor.

Ironically, my summer forecasts have been pretty much on point for the past several years! I believe this is due in part to more stable atmospheric conditions in the warmer season. Computer models have been doing a much better job with summer outlooks than winter in recent years.

As I have mentioned in posts leading up to my summer forecast, I see no indication of a cooler than normal summer this year. It’s almost incomprehensible that Boston has seen 11 straight warmer than normal summers! Wow!

Much like the past 5 year years, I see a sluggish start to summer, with some periods of unseasonably cool periods in June, along with warm ones. This should lead into a fairly average month temperature wise. If heat can establish itself later in the month, it could tilt warmer. We shall see.

Most computer models are turning up the heat in July and August. With a incoming La Nina (pool of cold water in the Pacific Ocean), this should solidify a ridge of high pressure (hot & dry) along the east coast, sending several heat waves up into New England.

As in years past, this warmer than normal weather should continue well into September, October and possibly even November. If true, another endless endless summer could result around here. I don’t here too many folks complaining!

Right now, I do not see any strong signal for a particularly wet summer around here this year, nor dry either. I will go with average precipitation for this outlook. This will mostly come in afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

With the hot summer anticipated, any boundary between cool and hot (cool fronts) could be enough to trigger some torrential downpours. Of course, these can be isolated, but there should be enough for everyone to remain green!

One wildcard about this summer. NOAA and many hurricane experts are expecting a very active hurricane season this year. We always have to be on guard for a tropical storm or even a hurricane tracking up the east coast into New England. We are way overdue.

This could change precipitation forecasts for New England later in the summer. Right now, I would say there is a 50% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane affecting New England later this summer or fall. For New England standards, this is pretty high odds. Be vigilant of forecasts as we move deeper into hurricane season.

Reviewing the summer forecast. As of today, I am expecting a hotter than normal summer in Boston, with near to perhaps a bit above average precipitation.

Boston typically averages 13 ninety degree days in an average summer. The preliminary call right now is for between 16 and 20 ninety degree days. Close to the 16 of last summer, but perhaps even a bit hotter.

Whether we receive this many 90 degree days or not, the summer is likely going to average out warmer than normal, making it our 12th straight above average summer. Be prepared, it’s likely to be every bit as hot as predicted, if not a bit more!

I will update this forecast come summer solstice after I see new information.

Now for your new beach & boating forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Not too shabby for the unofficial first week of summer! A northeast wind is keeping it choppy over east coastal waters today. It’s also mainly cloudy and cool, so not an ideal beach day either. Watch for winds to turn offshore starting tomorrow through Friday.

This will begin to transport warm to even a touch of hot weather through this period. The best days for beach and boating will be these three days. Watch for a strong cold front to approach beaches and adjacent coastal waters on Friday.

This will be accompanied by some strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms. Yet another unseasonably cool air mass will arrive into New England this weekend, accompanied by gusty winds and chilly temperatures. Most likely too cool for the beach, and too rough for boating.

Now for our regional outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect mainly overcast skies for the remainder of this afternoon. With an onshore wind, it will remain in the upper 50’s along the coast. The sun may begin to burn through the overcast later on. A good evening for a walk perhaps?

A warm front will lift through the region overnight. This means winds will shift to southerly, and begin transporting warmer and more humid weather into our region. There may be some lingering showers, drizzle and fog across the Cape as the warmer air travels over the cooler ocean.

Tuesday may start murky, with low clouds, maybe even some mist. However, as the morning progresses, look for this to burn off, leading to partly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Highs should soar well into the 70’s.

Expect mild weather overnight Tuesday, with areas of fog across the Cape and coastal regions. No rain is expected.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature mid summer conditions, with mainly sunny skies, and very warm to perhaps hot for some. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80’s. It’s not out of the question some communities such as Norwood touch 90 for the first time this season!

A cold front will be approaching the region on Friday. As the cool air bumps into the warm air, it is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Depending upon how much sun we see, some storms could feature torrential rain, hail and strong winds.

After early morning clouds and showers, the rest of Saturday will feature clearing skies, with cooler and drier air moving into the region. Temperatures could still make it into the lower 70’s, but tend to fall during the afternoon.

For the last day of May, expect cooler than normal temperatures with a gusty wind, it will feel more like April than late May. Highs will only be in the 60’s, and may not get out of the 50’s in the higher terrain.

The Cool weather pattern may linger into the first few days of June, then begin to modify late next week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a preview of what June may bring us. I will also review the three month period of meteorological spring, and have a new beach & boating forecast. In the meantime, get your air conditioners ready, the heat of summer is almost upon us!

Thanks for reading!

Be safe!

Pete

P.S. Today we remember our veterans, and loved ones who have passed. Remember those who protect us, and those who served our country to bring us the freedom we enjoy today!

~Happy Birthday to my sister in law Cathryn!~

Cool Start…Warm Finish! 5/18/20

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! As advertised, the weather cooperated, with seasonable May weather showing up for a change! Saturday was the pick of the weekend, with abundant sunshine, and temperatures in the low 70’s.

Sunday featured more cloudiness, but the sun did make a cameo appearance late in the day. It was a little cooler than Saturday, as winds turned onshore.

This is life for us who live near the ocean in the spring. Wind direction makes all the difference in the world! East winds off the ocean mean chilly temperatures, sometimes associated with drizzle and fog. Switch that wind offshore to west or southwest, and temperatures can be a good 20 degrees warmer with lots of sun!

Looking over the latest weather data, the weather patterns this week will be a perfect example of this phenomenon. Onshore winds will chill coastal regions through tomorrow. This is due to a strong area of high pressure building in from southern Canada.

The clockwise circulation of the high pressure will initially bring chilly northeast winds off the ocean here to eastern Massachusetts. As the high pressure drifts south of our region starting on Thursday, winds will turn southerly. This alone will transport warmer air into New England. I will explain all the details in my forecast, shortly.

I talk a lot about latent heating and cooling, and how this influences our climate here in New England, especially in the spring and fall. This chilly wind coming is not a direct result of latent heating.

Yes, the Atlantic Ocean is still cold this time of the year, as it takes longer for the oceans to warm up during spring, than the land. This will provide the chilly wind tomorrow.

However, rather than this being just a plain sea breeze, the chilly wind will be a direct result of a high pressure pressing down from the north, and low pressure to our south. The pressure gradient between the two will force a chilly air mass to blow in from the ocean. You will need a jacket tomorrow, if venturing out!

A local sea breeze is different. A sea breeze occurs when the sun heats the land up. When air warms, it rises. To replace the lighter warm air that has risen, colder dense air blows in from the ocean to replace it. This occurs quite frequently in spring and to an extent in summer too.

Because the oceans become warmer in August and September, the chill of the sea breeze diminishes as the air and ocean temperature become more equal. This is why a sea breeze in the spring means run for the hills! In the summer it means head to the beaches!

As much as many want summer warmth, May typically does not feature sustained summer weather. It’s still spring after all! May is a transition month to summer. While we can and do see previews of summery weather in May, it typically is brief, with the cold ocean lurking to our east.

In fall, November is similar to May. November is the transition month to winter. We sometimes see wintry weather in November, but in most cases, the climate modifies, before sustained cold and snow arrives.

Occasionally in both months, an early pattern of warm or cold can lock in. In most cases, this occurs either around Memorial Day or Thanksgiving Day.

Looking at the weather maps this morning, the pattern looks more like a winter pattern than anything else! It has a blocky look to it, with high pressure to our north, and low pressure to our south. This can still happen this time of the year. I don’t see snow this time, but the jet stream, and high and low pressures look like a winter pattern.

In fact, just a couple days ago, this week was looking very stormy, with a 3 day nor’easter battering the region with strong northeast winds, wind driven rains, and even coastal flooding. Wow, lucky I didn’t bite and set off the alarms with those earlier computer model runs!

As it turns out, that same strong high pressure bringing the chilly air building into New England from eastern Canada, is actually coming to the rescue!

This high pressure is acting like a block in our atmosphere. It’s stronger than the low pressure to our south, and will veer the storm out to sea. Earlier, it looked as if a low pressure in the mid west would merge with another tropical storm off the mid Atlantic coast, then slowly meander off the southern New England coast. Had this happened, we could of been in for quite a storm.

As mentioned earlier, the high pressure will track south of New England, bringing a return flow of warmer weather our way later this week. This may or may not be accompanied by some inclement weather to start the weekend.

You may ask, do all these chilly days and cold nights have any bearing on our summer weather patterns? For the most part, I do not believe they do. Once in 20 years, you may get a chilly and unsettled weather pattern developing in the spring, then persist into the summer. In other words, it’s very rare.

At this early juncture, I do not see any indication of a cool, unsettled summer. Like the past several years, there is a chance June starts off shaky, with some lingering cool, unsettled weather. Again, with our cool ocean to our east, this is almost to be expected these days.

When I say cool oceans, I’m saying this in relative terms. Cool, for oceans off the New England coast. The oceans across the remainder of earth are running at near record warm levels.

Therefore, as the oceans warm up later in June and July, sustained warm to hot weather will once again establish itself across much of New England the deeper we go into summer. Like in years past, this should linger deep into September. No sign of early fall arriving this year.

It shouldn’t come as no surprise, the last 11 summers have been hotter than normal here in Boston. The big question is just how hot, and for how long? I will do my very best to try and determine this in my official summer forecast which will be posted a week from today!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. Next week, I will begin my beach and boating forecast! I will rate this week an 8 out of 10!

Expect considerable cloudiness and cool temperatures the rest of today. Later this afternoon, it may brighten up enough for a colorful sunset! With onshore winds, temperatures will remain in the upper 50’s along the coast.

Watch for clearing skies tonight, with lows dropping down into the 30’s in some rural areas, and 40’s elsewhere. I believe the threat for frost is over this spring for all areas inside I495 to the coast.

Expect a chilly northeast wind tomorrow, with brilliant blue skies and abundant sunshine! As mentioned above, you will need a jacket tomorrow, with highs only in the low 50’s within 10 miles of the coast, and near 60 inland.

Tuesday night will feature clear skies, but with more chilly temperatures. Lows will range from the 30’s in rural areas, to 40’s along the coast. Would not shock me to see patchy frost in deeper interior valleys. This is still normal for those areas.

Look for similar weather on Wednesday. But with lighter winds, temperatures should warm up into the 60’s inland, and mid 50’s along the coast, with light sea breezes. Still kind of chilly for mid to late May.

As the high pressure slides south of New England on Thursday, clockwise circulation will shift winds more towards the south. This will bring warmer air into the region, with highs in the 60’s to low 70’s, with plenty of sunshine.

As an area of low pressure approaches from the south on Friday, clouds will tend to increase. It will be warmer still, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s!

It’s still questionable whether we see any rain from the remnants of a storm moving up the coast on Saturday. At his point, I’m going to forecast some scattered showers later Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with the clouds and chance of rain. Highs will be near 70.

I wouldn’t cancel plans at this point, there’s still a 50/50 chance it could turn out mainly dry on Saturday.

After this area of low pressure passes east of us, look for sunny and pleasant weather to return for both Sunday and Memorial Day! This is great news for folks being cooped up in the house for nearly two months!

However, onshore winds off the ocean will once again mean chilly temperatures near the coast, so it may not be warm enough for the beach. But the weather looks fine for heading to the beach house, or having a Memorial Day cookout!

Please be safe and follow new safety guidelines if doing so! We do not want any setbacks!

Longtime WBZ meteorologist Barry Burbank (retired) was always skeptical of forecasting a dry holiday weekend, as something would bound to come along and foul it up! This does not look to be the case this year! Fingers crossed!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my official 2020 summer forecast! I will also have a new beach & boating forecast! In the meantime, you may have the heat on early this week, then the AC on by Friday! Enjoy!

Happy Memorial Day weekend!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Well…Hello May! 5/11/20

Hello! Wishing everyone a Happy Mother’s Day! It was different this year for me, as it was the first time without having my mother with us. It’s all good, I know she was smiling down at us up in heaven!

Thank you for friends who checked in with me yesterday. It’s so true when they say it’s the thought that counts!

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! As advertised, it was a weekend that featured just about every kind of weather you could think of! Saturday began with snow showers, even in Boston! As the day progressed, the storm moved north along the coast towards the Gulf of Maine.

In it’s wake, a very cold upper level storm system crashed into New England. This brought a very unusual day of weather for many across the region.

If you were in Boston and along the coast, it was a record cold low high temperature for the date, where Boston only reached a high of 44 degrees. This broke the record set back in 1966. This was with times of bright May sunshine throughout the day.

Remember, the sun angle this time of the year is equivalent to late July! This high temperature was a good 20 degrees colder than what the average high is for May 9th.

Boston also tied for a record low temperature Saturday night, with a low of 34 degrees. Had the winds settled down, low temperatures would of been even colder across much of the region.

But the cold was only part of the story! If you live anywhere north and west of I495 in New England, Saturday turned out to be indeed quite a wintry day!

Many people reported in with pictures and video of snowfall from Friday nights storm, and then frequent snow squalls moving through the region all day Saturday, which accumulated anywhere from a dusting to 4″.

For those in higher elevations, 1500 ft and above, it was a true winter wonderland, which lasted though much of the day! Remember it was a cold storm in the upper atmosphere, so the higher you were in elevation, the more accumulation you received!

How much? There were many reports of between 3 and 12″ of snow. You would think this time of year would bring heavy wet snow. However, due to the unusual cold air mass aloft, the snow in many locations was powdery, and was actually blowing around!

Moving north up along the coast, my sister Pam and brother in law Michael reported frequent snow squalls in the seacoast region of New Hampshire on Saturday. No real accumulation, but the ground did briefly whiten in some of the heavier squalls!

The initial storm which moved through Friday night, intensified into a serious winter storm in Maine. Locations near Houlton, Maine saw blizzard conditions on Saturday with between 12 and 15″ of heavy snow!

As I have mentioned before, it is not uncommon for snow to fall in May in the higher terrain of New York and New England. It was just a few years ago when close to 3 feet fell in the Presidential Range of New Hampshire and Mt. Washington region.

Another late season nor’easter dumped a ridiculous amount of snow in Upstate New York and northern New England on Memorial Day weekend 7 years ago! It happens!

What was so unusual about this cold & snowy outbreak was more about the aerial coverage. This just wasn’t confined to Quebec and northern Maine. This was a widespread outbreak, affecting almost two thirds of the eastern part of the U.S. True, the coldest and snowiest was confined to the northeast, from Pennsylvania on up through much of New England.

We also must take into account the time of year. As I mentioned above, the sun angle this time of year is similar to that of late July.

You may ask, how could it get so cold? This is a classic example of latent heating and cooling. Though the sun angle is similar to late July, the incoming radiation has not been able to heat the oceans up to its fullest extent. It takes longer for the oceans to heat up in the spring, and longer for them to cool down in the fall.

Therefore, leftover cold air masses can still penetrate the mid latitudes in spring, the same way warm air masses can bring Indian Summer weather to us in late fall.

There are even more complex factors involved, such as the Greenland Block, Jet Stream winds, Polar Vortex, Solar Minimum etc. But the one common element driving the weather is the sun!

It wasn’t all bad. Perhaps you noticed in Boston that the record cold and snow wasn’t too bad in the city? This is true. Coastal areas, were not as severe as interior locations. After the early morning snow showers, Saturday turned into a brisk day with partly sunny skies.

We did not experience the turbulent weather interior locations felt. Some of this was partly due to the strong westerly winds. A westerly wind in Boston typically is a downslope wind.

This wind direction typically dries out precipitation as it tracks from the Berkshires and Worcester hills towards Boston. As a parcel of air travels down a hill, it expands and warms. This explains why Boston did not see any snow squalls on Saturday.

As is typical this time of year, Sunday saw a big bounce back, with highs near 60, under partly sunny skies.

Well then, I think I exhausted my recap of this unusual wintry May event! Let’s put the 2019-20 winter that never arrived, then when it did, would never leave behind us! Let’s move onto brighter & warmer times ahead!

Our we completely done with the cool & damp weather? Of course not, we live in New England. It gets cold in the summer sometimes around here. June can sometimes be a very tricky month weatherwise!

The past several June’s have been less than ideal here in New England. Cold ocean temperatures persisting deep into the spring prevented sustained warm weather from arriving here in New England.

This year, I see more reason to be a bit more optimistic for a warmer June. Ocean temperatures are not as cold as previous years, mainly due to the unusually warm winter. If ocean temperatures continue to rise, it’s possible June will be a summery month this year.

In fact, we may not have to wait until June! There is good support from long range computer data today of a period of very warm temperatures invading New England from the southwest beginning this weekend, then continuing into the Memorial Day holiday weekend! As always, there will be issues along the coast with seabreezes, and back door cold fronts, but this is typical for this time of year.

How about the rest of the summer? My official summer forecast will be posted just two short weeks from today! As I have mentioned before, I see no evidence of a cooler than normal summer coming. The past 11 summers have been hotter than normal here in Boston. I am leaning heavily in this direction at this time.

In the shorter term, a summer preview looks like it’s on its way! Do not be dismayed with the brisk weather the next two days. A significant change to the upper air pattern is looking more likely beginning later this week. This will bring a surge of summer into much of New England. Cooler temperatures can be expected at times along the coast.

Is this summer beginning? I do not believe so. Let’s call this a summer preview for now. Undoubtedly, we will have more cool, damp weather before summer settles in.

However, I do believe the worst is behind us! Expect many more warm days over cool ones moving forward. For those who enjoy gardening, I am giving the green light for panting come this weekend. Enjoy!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Look for considerable cloudiness this afternoon. There will be a gusty wind at times, also watch for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region as a upper level storm spins through. It will be a mild afternoon, with highs in the 60’s.

As this storm spins north of us, it will begin to intensify as it heads towards northern Maine. As cold air wraps into the storm, it could bring areas in northern Maine yet another May snowstorm, with up to 6″ in places. Just incredible climate up there!

What this storm will also do is drive another unseasonably cold air mass into New England. Therefore, expect blustery and chilly weather for both tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures will only be in the 50’s along the coast, but remain in the 40’s across the higher terrain.

Look out for more record cold temperatures tomorrow night! Temperatures could actually be colder than Saturday night across the interior! Temperatures could fall into the 20’s across the interior, and mid to upper 30’s along the coast.

As winds shift on Thursday, expect warmer temperatures, with highs in the 60’s to near 70. Most of the day should be dry, but watch for increasing clouds later in the day.

A warm front approaching New England may bring a chance of showers Thursday night and early Friday. As the front moves through, temperatures could warm into the low to mid 70’s! A cold front sweeping across the region could bring more showers & thunderstorms later Friday and Friday night.

Right now, it looks like a wavy cold front will be close by our region this weekend. Saturday could feature very warm temperatures around the Boston area, with highs possibly reaching 80 for the first time this year!

This wavy cold front could settle back south of us on Sunday, which could introduce a cooler air mass from the ocean, with highs only in the 50’s and 60’s, especially along coastal areas. There could also be some areas of drizzle or showers.

As always, timing issues could alter this forecast. Please check in with local media outlets for latest updates.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking at the weather patterns for the rest of May, and have your Memorial Day weekend forecast. What? Memorial Day, already! I will also discuss in a bit more detail my thoughts for this upcoming summer. In the meantime, as quickly we say hello to May, summer will be here before we know it!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Wishing my brother John a Happy Birthday! Today, May 11th!