One Last Hurdle? 5/4/20

Hello! I hope everyone had a chance to enjoy this well deserved delightful weather weekend! After some early clouds and light showers, Saturday became mainly sunny during the afternoon.

After what seemed like endless weeks of onshore winds, winds turned westerly Saturday, blowing offshore. This time of year, what kind of weather we see, is often dictated as to which way the wind is blowing.

Because it was a land breeze, temperatures responded, with many communities reaching the low 70’s! This drove thousands of people outside, to enjoy the sudden spring weather! It almost goes without saying, after nearly 5 weeks of stay indoors restrictions, many people were more than ready to get some fresh air! Just keep that mask on!

If that wasn’t enough, Sunday was even better! My goodness, can we handle this? After some early morning clouds, sunshine took over for the majority of the day. Westerly winds freshened, but it was a warm wind, with many communities a couple degrees of either side of 80! I believe this was the warmest temperature felt in Boston since October 9th of last year!

I remember something similar happening last year at this time. In fact, I believe it’s been several years in a row now. After a snowless, benign winter, the pattern suddenly changes around the time the spring equinox arrives, leading to a unsettled, cold with occasional bouts of wintry weather.

Very strange weather patters, indeed. These are weather patterns that many folks (including myself) do not care for in the least bit this time of year! What’s the point in getting wintry weather patterns in April and May? Nonetheless, Mother Nature is in complete control…we just have to live through it!

Welcome to May! In astronomical terms, May can be looked at in the calendar year, similar to November. As November is the transmission month to winter, May is the transmission month to summer.

Keeping this in mind, we know we can see late season summer surges during November. Five years ago we were treated to an extremely warm November, with high temperatures feeling more like September.

As we can feel the warmth of summer in November, we can still feel the wrath of winter in May! In a warmer climate, I believe it’s more difficult for this to happen these days.

Yet, Mother Nature is all about balance. Sometimes it happens quick, right before our eyes, an unseasonably warm day is replaced the next day that’s just as cold as it was warm.

In most cases, it’s a longterm balance called our climate. Climatologists like to observe longterm weather trends to see if our climate is changing, or staying the same. This includes looking at all the ups and downs of temperatures, and precipitation patterns.

If they looked back at April 2020, they would see that Boston observed a wetter and colder than normal April. This is in stark contrast to the four straight warmer than normal months we had from December through March.

It did snow in Boston this April. Typically, Boston averages close to 2″ of snow in April. In a unusual lates season storm, close to 1″ of snow fell at Logan Airport early on the 17th, with up to 3″ in surrounding communities. If we do see snow in April, it normally falls within the first 10 days of the month.

Now that we’re in May we no longer have to worry about cold & snow, right? Not necessarily! Coastal areas typically do not have to worry about snowfall in May. However, snowfall can and has occurred across the interior and especially across the higher terrain of New England during May.

It was just a couple years ago that the White Mountains of New England were whacked with up to 3 ft of snow on Mother’s Day!

It has to be a very anomalous event for it to snow along the coast during May. However, it can happen! Need I have to remind many folks in New England with May 9th and 10th, 1977!

In what could possibly be called a once in a lifetime event, a strong nor’easter was captured by a unseasonably cold upper level storm off the coast, resulting in destructive very late season snowstorm for central and eastern Massachusetts.

While Logan Airport only received a half inch of snow (a record to this date), inland areas just away from the the shoreline received significant accumulations.

This includes where I live here in West Roxbury, where an astounding 3 to 4″ of heavy wet snow fell! I remember my neighbor using a broom to knock off the heavy snow from a fully leafed tree!

Further inland, areas as close as Newton saw up to a half a foot of snow! Up to a foot or more fell across the hilly terrain in central Massachusetts with massive power outages and severe tree damage.

This storm still holds the benchmark for many in southern New England to say don’t count snow completely out of the picture along the coast until after May 10th!

As beautiful as the summery feel was this past weekend, winter just doesn’t seem to want to give up this year! The winter that never arrived, now refuses to leave.

The same pattern which brought the cold and wet conditions in April, is going to return with a vengeance this weekend. Ugh!!! It was just last Mother’s Day where some communities reported sleet on Mother’s Day. I was one of these people who did see sleet falling on that cold, rainy day!

Much like in 1977, an extremely cold air mass is heading towards the northeast this weekend. Earlier computer models were actually showing accumulating snowfall for the I95 corridor. This scenario was unrealistic. But it does show you the strength of the cold air mass and atmospheric energy heading our way.

In fact the same storm now looks like it’s going to track closer to the coast, preventing snowfall along the coast. However, latest computer models continue to advertise a mid winterlike storm for the high terrain of western Mass., Vermont, New Hampshire, and western Maine Friday night early Saturday.

This would mean heavy wet snow, strong winds, tree damage, with possible power outages. If your plans take you across the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, central N.H. Including the White Mountains, and the mountainous terrain of western Maine, please be aware that you will encounter difficult and very dangerous driving conditions.

Thereafter, watch for record cold weather for the remainder of the weekend, with highs only in the 30’s and 40”s, and lows in the teens and 20’s. Wow!

Okay. I agree! This may be a bit more than a hurdle. Sounds more like a high jump to me!

Down here is coastal areas, the weather will not be as harsh, but it will not be any resemblence to this past weekend! In fact, there is a strong possibilty of widespread frosts and freezes across southern New England this weekend. I will go over the details shortly in my forecast.

Is this what we can expect for the rest of May? Cold waves, frosts and chances for mountain snows?

Fortunately, I do not believe this will be the case. Long range computer models are showing the coldest air lifting north into Canada as the month progresses.

This would lead to a relaxation to the jet stream, allowing warmer air to flow into New England. Instant summer? Not quite just yet! We still may have to wait until June, which is normal.

No matter what, the daily departure from normals continue to increase every day. No matter how cold an air mass that attempts to invade New England, sun angle and length of day means 50’s and 60’s this time of year. The one exception is this Sunday, when it will be colder.

May typically begins with high temperatures in the low 60’s, ending in the low 70’s at the end of the month. Low temperatures average low 40’s to start, and end up in low 50’s by months end. May can be rainy, averaging a little over 3″ of rain.

However, I must admit the pattern for the rest of May continues to look shaky. The reason is a complicated phenomenon called the MJO, or Madden Julien Oscillation.

In its most simplest explanation, the MJO is observed in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Ocean as an area of rainfall, winds and pressure that traverse the tropic regions around the globe and returns to its initial starting point.*

As of late, the MJO has been stuck in a phase which promotes cold and wet weather here in the northeast. If this happened during the winter, we would of been buried with snowfall!

The big question is if the MJO traverses out of this cold phase, into warmer phase. If it gets stuck, we could be looking at a cooler than average May.

I am thinking after this weekends cold shot, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels, which should leave May near average in the end.

Thereafter, I am still expecting a warmer regime to take over much of New England, leading to another hotter than average summer this year, possibly beginning earlier this year sometime in June. I will have more about this in my summer forecast which will be posted on May 25th!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect considerable cloudiness this afternoon. Temperatures will be mild, I believe Boston has already reached 70 today. Later this afternoon, there may be a few scattered showers.

After any early scattered showers, expect clearing skies later this evening. It will be cooler, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s in urban areas.

Tuesday will be cooler, with highs mainly in the 50’s to near 60. We may start with bright sunshine, but cold upper levels of the atmosphere will lead to many clouds in the afternoon.

Expect fair and chilly weather Tuesday night. With light winds, temperatures will fall into the 30’s and low 40’s, with areas of frost.

Wednesday should feature sun to start, but clouds will increase during the afternoon. A storm approaching from the southwest may spread rain into the region later Wednesday, Wednesday night into Thursday.

This is similar to a winter situation. If the storm tracks a bit further to the south, we could remain dry across the region. If it tracks closer, a cold rain would envelop the region, with temperatures only in the 40’s.

For the period Friday through Sunday, watch for unusual weather patterns for this time of year. As mentioned above, a strong storm should track close to southern New England into Maine. There will be enough cold air charging down the western side of this storm system for winterlike conditions to develop with snow and cold temperatures. It’s MAY!

After this storm moves north of our region, Saturday will feature windy and chilly weather, with highs in the low 50’s, except 30’s and 40’s up north and higher terrain.

Watch for very cold weather Saturday night, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s regionwide, with widespread frost and freezes. The exception may be right along the immediate coastline.

Sunday will feel more like Thanksgiving than Mother’s Day. There will be some sun, but it will be blustery and cold out. Temperatures may not make it out of the 40’s around Boston, and 30’s across the higher terrain. Cold weather will continue into early next week, then slowly modify.

Make no mistake about it, it may not snow in Boston, but this will be a very noteworthy winter weather event coming up for our region for this time of year!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing in more detail my thoughts for the summer outlook. I will also see if and when our spring pattern will stabilize. In the meantime, get your sneakers on to be prepared for whatever hurdle Mother Nature has in store for us!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

*Some information derived from NOAA

Let’s Make A Deal! 4/27/20

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice, weekend! The weather was a 50/50 proposition around here. Saturday was lovely, with a good amount of sunshine and temperatures close to 60. A slow moving storm system brought increasing clouds Saturday night. Sunday turned out rainy and cold, especially later in the day.

Sunday night turned out to be on the stormy side. A slow moving storm developed south of New England, which brought very gusty winds and a driving rain along the coast.

Rain was not the only precipitation this storm brought to the region last night. As the heavy precipitation headed into northern New England, the rain began changing to wet snow! Yes, wet snow here on April 27th!

As unsettled of a pattern that it’s been, we are actually lucky here in eastern Massachusetts! For many days, computer models were actually showing enough cold air getting entrained into this slow moving storm, and changing the rain to accumulating snow tonight, even right to the coast! This is almost unheard of for the end of April!

As it turned out, the storms intensity is not going to be as intense as originally thought. The idea was that the storm would generate its own cold air through a process called dynamic cooling. This typically happens in rapidly intensifying winter storms.

Nevertheless, Many areas in the Berkshires of Massachusetts, and much of interior northern New England awoke up to 1 to 4″ of wet snow. Some higher elevations of upstate New York actually received up to 1 foot of snow.

As I mentioned earlier, this is not that unusual. Back in 2013, some higher elevations received 3 ft of snow…on Memorial Day weekend!

The point of mater is, it happens. Higher elevations in New England have seen many big snowstorms in the month of May. Coastal areas are just about done for accumulating snow this time of year.

However, we must never forget the incredible late season snowstorm on Mother’s Day back in 1977! This storm brought massive power outages and tree damage across much of the region…even down to the coast! It was a historical storm, indeed!

Excuse the sarcastic tone coming up, but trust me, it will all make sense later!

So, how did you like this past winter? Some think winter is still here! With temperatures 20 below normal on some days, soaking windswept rainstorms with the threat of wet snow involved, I would tend to agree!

Getting back to this past winter, or I should say lack of thereof, many would love these winters year in and year out. As a reminder, Boston enjoyed its second warmest winter on record. Even more shocking, Boston received the least amount of snow on record during astronomical winter.

So Boston has seen way above normal temperatures 8 out of the last 9 months. It’s looking as if April is going to end up below average, so let’s go ahead and say 8 out of the last 10 months. A local meteorologist put up some statistics last evening, and said Boston has seen above normal months 45 out of the last 60 months!

Looking back, this pattern does not surprise me. I mentioned to watch out for a cold, miserable April back in March. This has been the pattern for the past 5 years! Those 15 colder than normal months I mentioned above, the majority of them have been during the spring months of March, April and May. Sometimes June as well!

Call it what you will, seasonal shift, global warming, climate change the pattern has been stagnant and persistent since July of 2015…a full five years.

Yet, despite the cold and miserable springs, summers have been hotter than normal, with amazing weather for outdoor activities such as beach, boating and camping weather from July through October. A summer lovers dream!

The culprit? I believe a lot has to do with the above average ocean temperatures we’ve been experiencing, especially over the last 10 years or so.

After near record warm winters, the pattern seems to snap as soon as spring arrives. Winter teleconnections which are non existent during astronomical winter, suddenly show up when spring arrives.

I was chatting with my good friend Remy, who attends Cornell University studying Atmospheric Science and Architecture the other day. We were discussing why the atmosphere seems to be off it’s cycle over the past several years.

This is not an easy subject with clear cut answers. Remy believes extensive research would be worthwhile to try and come up with some answers. There are many atmospheric scientists which may have their own theories as to what is going on…but nobody really has any definitive answers.

Yet, I go back to my own theory of latent heating and cooling of our oceans. You’ve heard me say it before, it takes longer for the oceans to cool off in the fall and early winter, and slower for them to warm up in spring early summer, than the land mass.

What does this mean? It leaves areas that is mostly surrounded by ocean, such as eastern New England, vulnerable to cold & wet weather in the spring, and warm & dry weather during autumn.

In recent years, we have seen a seasonal shift occur. Meaning the summer extends deeper into fall even early winter, and winter extends deeper into spring and early summer. Why this has been so prevalent over the past 10 years or so is something still up for debate.

I also believe the sun is a major driving force of our climate. The sun is responsible for heating our oceans up. There are so many other factors that go into what drives our climate, such as the tilt of the earth as we orbit around the sun, volcanic activity, and finally global warming induced by human activity to name a few.

So here’s the good news I mentioned above. I believe it’s better to get this Greenland Blocking pattern out of the way here in April and May, rather than June and July. Though even this has some questions. Last summer, we predominantly had a Greenland Block all summer long.

You would think this would bring us a crummy, cold summer. However, a Greenland Block in summer months delivers a different weather patterns for us here in New England, than during winter and spring.

If you recall, last summer was a fantastic! It began late, but it exended deep into October. We also managed another above average summer, with 16 days with 90 or above days. This was the 11th straight warmer than average summer in Boston.

Regardless of whether the Greenland Block alters our weather patterns for the summer, believe me, it’s better to get this inclement, rainy and cold stretch out of the way here in April and May, rather than July and August. It’s nothing scientific, it’s just trends I look for.

Let’s make a deal! It’s going to take some time, but when this cold & unsettled pool lifts out of New England, I believe the Boston area will be in for at least an average summer, if not another above average summer on the way this year. This means we may have to endure chiller than normal weather through most of May, before we bust into summer weather come June! I believe this is a deal many will happily take!

It will keep our favorite saying true here in New England that we will go from winter straight into summer, and bypass spring!

I will have my official summer forecast written for everyone coming up on May 25th. So stay tuned!

Just a quick note on our spring timetable. After all the graphs and statistics showing leaf out charging north into New England, the process have significantly slowed down on its approach to eastern Massachusetts points north.

As of this writing, leaf out is approaching areas south of Boston, points southwest into Connecticut. This now places leaf out about average dates here in the Boston area. It shows us how cold and cloudy April has been around here, which definitely holds back leaf out. Green up has arrived in the Boston area. Mowing should begin on time beginning May 1st.

Warmer temperatures this weekend will likely help leaf out here in the Boston area. However, more cold air slated for the first 10 days of May will likely hold back full leaf blossoms until after Mother’s Day.

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to write a quick weather history segment. It was back on April 28th and 29th 1987, when a historic late season nor’easter brought between 6 and 12″ of heavy wet snow across much of the Boston area. Incredibly up to 1 to 2 ft of heavy wet snow fell in the hilly terrain of Worcester County. To this day, this storm stands as the biggest snowstorm for so late in the season!

Longtime legendary Boston meteorologist Barry Burbank retired last evening after 42 years of forecasting on WBZ. I remember Barry forecasting that storm back in 1987 saying he can’t believe what he’s seeing on the weather charts, forecasting a historic blockbuster storm for that time of the year! Congratulations Barry, and best wishes for a wonderful retirement!

Now for our weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Not great, but we will have some nice spring weather when the sun comes out.

Expect damp, cold and rainy weather for the rest of today. Add a gusty northeast wind to add to the chill, and we have quite a miserable afternoon on the way. I have seen reports of some sleet and snow mixing in with the rain, so don’t be surprised!

Watch for similar weather to continue overnight. If it turns a tiny bit colder, some communities may see more wet snow and sleet mixing in with the rain, but I am not expecting any accumulation around here. It will be cold and raw, with lows in the 30’s.

Tuesday will start out cold and damp. However, as the storm pulls out to sea, expect winds to relax during the afternoon, and maybe a few breaks in the clouds before sunset? It will remain on the cold side, with highs only near 50.

Look for a much improved day for Wednesday, with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Temperatures should respond to near 60 across inland areas, to only near 50 at the coast with possible sea breezes.

Another storm will be approaching New England for Thursday and Friday. This storm is going to want to try and track west of New England, but will eventually be forced to track across southern New England. Expect this storm to have plenty of moisture. If up to 3″ of rain falls, there is the potential for some stream and river flooding.

After this storm pulls out later Friday, we can look forward to much improved weather for this weekend! Because we will now be in May, the sun is getting even stronger.

Therefore, I’m expecting temperatures in the 60’s on Saturday, and possibly even the lower 70’s on Sunday with sunny skies! I hope this period of spring weather arrives. We are going to need it after this week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will preview what I’m expecting for May, and review our awful April. I will also elaborate more on our impending summer forecast. In the meantime, I’m taking the deal…do we have a choice?

Thanks for reading!

Pete

P.S.

Thank you to everyone for checking in how I’m feeling. I’m feeling much better, and appreciate the well wishes.

I wish for everyone to continue praying for people who continue to battle this terrible virus. I would also like to send thoughts and prayers for families who have lost loved ones to the virus. God bless, to all.

What Happened to Spring? 4/20/20

Hello! It’s been a long time! My apologies for the absence of posts the last several weeks!

If you hadn’t heard, I actually came down with a case of covid-19! As best as I tried to protect myself, the unthinkable occurred about 3 weeks ago this Wednesday.

Oh, it starts off innocently enough. A dry cough, followed by some chills and low grade fever. Nothing that a good nights sleep should be able to shake off by next morning. And indeed, I felt better the next morning, so off to work I went. Come later in the day, the chills returned, as well as the fever.

I went home again, taking some aspirin and going right to bed. However this time, I did not get out of bed. The fever persisted for the next 13 straight days, and the exhaustion that settled in barely allowed me to get myself out of bed. In addition, a persistant dry cough let me know that this wasn’t your typical head cold.

I am very grateful for family and friends who brought me supplies, home made soup, and even a Easter dinner from my Auny Helen! Without them, recovery would of been in the hospital bed, not my own!

I pray for elderly folks or people who have compromised health issues. I can easily see why people end up in the hospital, or tragically end up succumbing to the virus. Prayers to all battling the disease, and to all those on the front line risking their lives to help care for others. Angels sent from God.

I am happy to report, while not 100%, I have greatly improved. My fever is long gone, my appetite has returned, the cough has diminished, and my energy level is increasing. Thank God!!

Due to this being my first post, energy levels will need to be reserved, so an abbreviated write up will have to do for today.

A while back in March, I said beware the weather patterns for April! I then re ended that statement as it looked like another warm month was on the way. In reality, April has been behaving more like March, than anything.

Temperatures have been chilly to even downright cold at night. While some hardy flowers are blooming, you can forget about any thoughts of starting an early garden this year.

In fact, many were brushing a few inches of snow off the flowers early Saturday morning! Would you be surprised to learn we received more snow early Saturday morning, than we did for both February and March combined! I was!

It’s not unusual to get snow in the Boston area in April. What was unusual was that it came after mid April, which puts it into the rare territory for accumulating snow to fall in the city.

Typically, accumulating snow usually falls during the first 10 days of April. There’s no rule, but after mid April, storms typically track too far north of Boston to bring snow.

There are exceptions. This past Saturday being one of them, but back on April 29th, 1987, a record late season nor’easter brought between 6 and 12″ of snow to the Boston region, with up to 17″ in some of the hilly terrain west and southwest of Boston!

Then of course there was the infamous late season Mother’s Day snowstorm back on May 10th, 1977! That was the latest snowfall in recorded history in Boston, with many communities losing power due to the weight of the heavy wet snow.

Sometimes, it just doesn’t seem like we can win around here. Yes, New England’s climate is not for the faint of heart!

After the winter we had, who would of thought we’d be talking snow on April 18th? Spring timetable was rapidly heading up the coast. However, as in many cases, the surge into New England stalled somewhere in Connecticut.

Green up finally did make it into Boston over the last week. This means the lawns finally come alive and turn green. This is actually about on time. Radiation from the sun after April 10th warms the earth up enough to allow the grass to turn green.

Next is leaf out. Typically, trees begin to flower around Boston the last 1- days of April. However, with the recent colder temperatures experienced around the region, leaf out has been somewhat delayed. Therefore, I am not expecting leaf out until closer to May 1st this year, with mature leaves not fully out until mid May.

Temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s over the next several nights is not going to help the leaves bloom any earlier than May 1st.

Green up, leaf out, most folks just want some consistent spring weather! What happened to the promising warm weather of February and March?

Mother Nature pulled the old switcheroo on us! Once the calendar flipped to April, the long awaited winter pattern finally began settling in. Yuck!!

I see no change for the last 10 days of the month. It appears as if Boston is going to experience its first below normal month since last November. We are pretty much locked into a cold & wet weather pattern. If it’s not raining, it’s going to be blustery and cold.

If one looks back, this has been a recurring pattern around here the past several years, at least. Mild to warm winters, only to turn cold and wet sometime during spring.

This unsettled pattern would then persist through June, only to suddenly turn to summer around the 4th of July, with blazing hot weather sometimes persisting into September, with warm weather even extending into October.

Will this year follow suite? The way things are evolving, I would say chances are higher than normal for a similar pattern to evolve.

Let’s move onto your weekly forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect cold weather tonight, within lows in the 20’s and mid 30’s. The growing season has begun inside of I95, so there is a frost advisory in these locations tonight.

Look for some early morning sunshine for your Tuesday. A fast moving cold front will be approaching the area during the afternoon. This will be a dynamic system, so expect clouds to rapidly increase and the sky to turn dark. Watch for a period of showers and windy weather to move in after 3:00 PM. There may even be a thunderstorm rumble through in some communities.

After the cold front moves through, expect blustery conditions and clearing skies tomorrow night. The air mass moving into the region tomorrow night is going to be straight out of Canada. Therefore, temperatures are going to plummet down into the 20’s and low 30’s regionwide.

Wednesday should feature mainly sunny but cold temperatures, with highs remaining in the 40’s.

Temperatures may not be as cold Wednesday night. Still, temperatures will fall into the 30’s.

A storm will be approaching Thursday. Right now it looks dry, but if the storm tracks a little faster and closer, rain could start moving into the region late in the day.

If the storm tracks close enough, Friday could be a cold, wet windy day, with a nor’easter type storm passing south of the region. Temperatures could remain in the 40’s and low 50’s.

If we’re lucky, this storm should move off the coast, leading to clearing skies and milder temperatures on Saturday. If the storm slows down, Saturday could remain cloudy and damp.

Regardless, another storm will be approaching us on Sunday. Right now, this storm looks like it wants to track south of New England. If true, this would set up northeast winds and periods of heavy rain throughout the day. There’s even an outside shot of wet snow mixing in with the rain across interior areas of New Hampshire and Maine.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I am going to give a preview of summer 2020. I will also be on the lookout when we might see some sustainable warmer & drier weather patterns. In the meantime, pray for good health…also pray for our spring to come back!

Thanks for reading!

Be safe!

Pete

Fleeting Flurries…3/30/20

Hello! I hope this post finds everyone in good health, and in the best of spirits as possible! While a good majority of us are safe in our homes, there are many who are very sick and fighting for their lives! Thoughts and prayers to all those on the front line, and to the families to those who passed away, or who are ill with this hideous virus.

As for our weather, it turned out being a classic 50/50 weekend around here. Saturday started out nice enough, with deep blue skies and brilliant sunshine.

This drove many outdoors, defying authority orders to remain indoors! It almost goes without saying that the more we we remain separate from one another, the quicker we get out of this mess!

Unfortunately, this was not the case! Mayor Walsh had to give a stern warning in his press conference yesterday saying that he would close all parks and begin implementing penalties for people who don’t obey the rules!

No worries monitoring folks activities yesterday! Most people remained indoors as a winter like storm brought cold northeast winds, waves of rain, and even thunderstorms with hail last night!

Welcome to spring in New England! As advertised in previous posts, the Greenland Block has developed, forcing this storm south of New England, bringing damp, cold weather, especially here in eastern New England.

Before you launch yourself over the cliff, I have reason to be optimistic with our future weather pattern!

After reviewing the latest data, it appears as if this block is not going to “lock in” for weeks on end. In fact, I can see this pattern breaking down after the 10th of April.

I originally thought the block was going to persist through the month of April, leading to our first below average month in four months.

Anything can still happen, but latest guidance shows this block breaking down sooner rather than later. Therefore, the pattern which brought Boston its second warmest winter on record, will once again establish itself the second half of April.

If true, warmer than normal temperatures will once again prevail acrosss our region, possibly making April the 5th straight warmer than normal month in the Boston region.

I was watching to see if April would possibly turn out below average. If this does not happen, Boston could be looking at warmer than normal weather for the rest of 2020. This could mean a streak of 12 straight months of above average temperatures, dating back to December 2019.

If there was any chance of a colder than average month, it would probably have to happen in the transition season from winter to summer.

The warm pattern which began in May of 2018, shows no sign of giving up! Yes, there have been a few below average months.

For example, the past two Novembers have featured colder than normal weather, only to turn very warm the following winter months, then a setback in spring, only to rebound the following summer.

Therefore, my early outlook for this summer is another hotter than normal summer in Boston this year. I see no evidence to forecast anything different than the past 10 years.

For what it’s worth, it will be interesting to see how coronavirus reacts to warmer temperatures across the nation. So many unknown variables as we head towards the warm season.

Speaking of warmer months, along with the warmer temperatures comes another enemy…allergy season! Can you imagine the confusion with people battling allergies, and to those who think they are sick with the virus!

Okay, I promised some good news and here it is! Due to the record warm winter, the spring timetable is running at least three weeks ahead of schedule!

Looking at the latest plot as to where green up is in the U.S. it actually has crept up along the entire east coast to just south of Boston!

As a reminder, green up is when the grass comes alive and turns green, and flowers and some trees begin to bloom. Though the warm winter is partly the cause, the increased solar radiation this time of year is the prevailing factor.

In this case, you could make a case it’s a combination of the two. No doubt, the warm winter is giving spring a good launching pad for an earlier than normal green up across the region.

The cloudy and cooler weather of this week may somewhat temper the progress of green up. However, once the sun returns in earnest next week, watch for everything to begin to turn green and trees to begin blooming.

Grass typically begins to turn green here in Boston during the first 10 days of April. Judging by my lawn outside, I would say this will happen on the earlier end of this envelop.

My lawn is about 50/50 right now, a mixture of brown and green beginning to mix in there. In typical years, mowing begins by May 1st in Boston, but I can see this happening a couple weeks ahead of schedule this year.

Leaf out is different than green up. Leaf out occurs when leaves on trees, and bushes begin to bloom across the region. This typically begins first in warmer urban areas like in downtown Boston.

I have seen pictures of flowers and even some trees blooming in urban areas. As mentioned above, this is about three weeks ahead of schedule.

As the season progresses, leaf out will encroach the entire region moving from south to north and east to west. In a typical season, leaf out occurs in Boston the first 10 days of May. This year, it looks like it could occur beginning by April 20th!

Up north, where winter has been more harsh, leaf out will most likely be on or posssibly slightly ahead of schedule. In a typical year, northern New England experiences leaf out by mid to late May.

Some higher elevations, and areas such as northern Maine do not see leaf out until early June! Again, it could be slightly earlier this year due to the milder than normal winter.

Overall, think warm! Everyone will be transitioning to spring and summer earlier this year. Would not surprise me if we are in full summer mode by May this year here in the Boston area!

So you may be asking, Pete, what are these fleeting flurries you talk about?!

It’s true! In the short term, it looks like a fairly cool and unsettled week ahead, as the block strengthens a bit. An upper level storm will be tracking across New England late this afternoon and tonight.

As this upper level disturbance tracks across New England, it will generate showers, and possibly even some small hail beginning this afternoon.

Because there is so much cold air aloft associated with this disturbance, the rain showers could actually turn to wet snow showers overnight.

This will not turn into any big storm, but many of us could wake up to a crusty coating of snow on grassy areas and cars come tomorrow morning!

A very quick weather history segment! Twenty three years ago, Boston had no idea just what kind of joke was coming towards them!

After a mild winter, the city of Boston removed all the plows off the trucks and packed them away for the season. It was the ultimate curveball sent by Mother Nature!

Back in 1997, the April Fools’ Blizzard, which actually began on March 31st, was a wicked nor’easter, which brought howling winds, blinding heavy wet snow, and frequent thunder and lightning to the Boston area.

When the storm finally abated later on April 1st, between 2 and 3 ft of heavy wet snow knocked out power lines and brought severe tree damage to the Boston area. A storm which will not be forgotten by anyone who lived through it!

Now for your weekly stay at home forecast, aka the outdoor spring activity forecast!

I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Good week to stay indoors.

Expect cloudy weather for the rest of this afternoon. If you’re lucky, you may see a beam or two of sunshine. Later today, showers will develop across the region. As mentioned above, some communities may see some small hail.

As the atmosphere cools overnight, these showers may turn into some wet snow showers across the region. This will not be a big storm. However, if the snow falls hard enough across the interior, and temperatures cool to near freezing, roads could become slippery in spots, so be on the look out for that!

Otherwise, there may be a coating of snow on some grassy areas and cars if you wake up early enough tomorrow morning…maybe up to an inch across the higher terrain.

I call them “fleeting flurries” because quite honestly, it may be the last snow we see in this so called winter. I say goodbye, better luck next year for winter enthusiasts!

For the rest of your Tuesday, early morning rain and snow showers will move out by 9 AM at the latest. The rest of the day should feature brightening skies. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the upper 40’s. However, if the sun does appear, it will make it feel that much warmer!

Tuesday night should feature fair weather. With clearing skies, temperatures will drop into the 20’s and 30’s across the region.

Wednesday will feature more sun than clouds. A pesky northeast wind will keep it chilly along the coast, with temperatures in the mid 40’s, but could warm up to 50 inland.

A large ocean storm which at one point may of threatened our region with a late season winter storm, will be tracking well southeast of New England on Thursday.

However, once this storm encounters the block over Greenland, it will actually begin to retrograde westward, bringing periods of showers and brisk conditions, especially along the coast later in the day and into the night.

This inclement weather may linger into early Friday, especially along the coast and down towards the Cape. Things should begin to improve from north to south during the afternoon, leading to a pleasant evening.

Right now, Saturday looks a lot like Wednesday, with more sun than clouds, and highs in the mid 40’s along the coast, and lower 50’s inland.

Sunday may start with some sunshine, but another quick moving front may bring some rain showers during the afternoon. A complete washout is not anticipated at this time. It will also be warmer, with highs near 60.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will update our spring timetable. I will also give everyone a quick outlook at our upcoming summer season. My official summer forecast will be written on May 25th. In the meantime, be safe, and try to remain positive!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Wet Snow For Some…Rain For Others! 3/23/20

Hello! I hope everyone is keeping safe, and staying indoors as much as possible! Please listen to local and federal authorities, so we can get through this coronavirus crisis as soon as possible. It sounds like it’s going to get worse, before it gets better.

Welcome to spring in New England! The weather this past weekend was dry, but certainly on the chilly side! After a cold start, Saturday featured lots of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.

Sunday was cold for this time of the year, with Boston barely breaking the freezing point. A stiff wind off of the ocean made it feel even colder!

The one saving grace is that we are officially in spring! This means the sun is beginning to get much stronger now. Perhaps you noticed the temperature did not feel as cold if you were in direct sunlight, yesterday? This is because the radiation of the sun is much stronger now, now that it’s spring.

But why is this? Well, it takes one year for the earth to orbit around the sun. While in orbit, the earth is tilted on a 23.5 degree axis. At the vernal equinox, both day and night are equal.

From this point forward, we will be gaining sunlight until we reach the summer solstice on June 20th. At first, we will be gaining significant sunlight, especially here in March, when it’s nearly 4 minutes per day!

As we approach the solstice, we are still gaining time, but at a much slower rate. After the summer solstice arrives, we begin to lose daylight. This process is very slow at first, but begins to accelerate as we head into August and especially September.

As we make our way towards the summer solstice, the earth is tilted more towards the sun. This angle brings us the long summer days we enjoy so much, as well as warmer temperatures!

Now that it’s officially spring, we must encounter another weather phenomenon here in New England…spring snow! Wait a minute! It didn’t snow all winter, and now that it’s spring, we’re talking snow???

After nearly four snowless months of spring weather, it appears as if Mother Nature is turning the tables on us down here in southern New England.

Last week, I mentioned how the extremely strong Polar Vortex is beginning to weaken, and break down. This may sound like good news, but it actually means the opposite.

A weaker Polar Vortex means that the vortex is actually expanding, and possibly even splitting up into different vortices. If this happened in May or June, it wouldn’t be a big deal. Perhaps some cooler periods and inclement weather.

But because it’s still March, it may give a brief opportunity for winter to linger a bit longer than we would like it, now here in spring.

I’m not expecting blizzards and cold waves, but there may be just enough cold air, and a favorable storm track south of New England, to bring periods of inclement weather with rain and even wet snow to our area from now until about April 10th.

Though the April Fools’ Blizzard of 1997 is always a reminder that freak events can and will happen! As if it’s not depressing enough already!

Yet, we can never stop the march of the seasons. The same process I outlined earlier with the earth’s orbit around the sound, and 23.5 degree axis, just this alone will ensure the seasons will always change, not matter how our climate is behaving.

In between inclement periods we will see times of sunny and mild weather. It’s true, when the sun comes out this time of the year, you can expect temperatures to pop up into at least the 40’s and 50’s if not 60’s by early April.

The sun is as strong as a mid September sun, and getting stronger! This means whatever spring snow that does fall, begins to melt immediately after the sun comes out!

New England is no stranger to spring snowstorms and even blizzards! Some of the more memorable events I can remember in my lifetime was the freak Mother’s Day snowstorm back in 1977 on May 9th!

Five years later Boston saw a full blown blizzard on April 6th, when 1 to 2 ft of powder slammed the area along with frequent thunder and lightning!

Just two years later, on March 28th and 29th, a powerful nor’easter brought hurricane force winds, and icy wet snow to Boston, snapping trees and knocking out power for thousands of residents.

There were more in the interim, but fast forward to April 1st 1997, the famed April Fools’ Blizzard, when 2 to 3 ft of heavy wet snow paralyzed the region for days.

The latest was 4 years ago, when back to back storms brought plowable snow in early April, along with bitterly cold temperatures.

If you look at statistics, it appears Boston sees a spring snowstorm once every 4 or 5 years on average…and a big storm with greater than 10″ of snow once every 15 years or so. You could make a case that we are due for a big spring storm…but time will tell!

You may ask, now that it’s spring, why is it snowing? There are many reasons. One reason is because the ocean temperature is actually colder now, than it is in November and December!

An east or northeasterly wind has a much higher chance of keeping the snow falling along the coast in March, than it does in November. This is mainly due to latent heating and cooling.

It takes the oceans longer to cool off in late fall and early winter, than the land mass. In the spring, the opposite occurs, with colder ocean taking longer to heat up than the land in March and April, sometimes even delaying spring into May or early June!

Remember, the oceans take up 70% of the earth. It takes a lot of solar radiation to warm up the oceans sufficiently enough to kick winter out for good! This is why many years it seemingly goes from winter to summer here in Boston, skipping right over spring!

This is why cold & unsettled weather can linger around until Memorial Day, but can sometimes linger until around July 4th!

With back to back storms this week, many mountains are going to get walloped with between 10 and 20″ of wet snow. Unfortunately, with the ongoing crisis, many skiers will not be able to enjoy the great spring skiing. Maybe next year?

Now for your weekly spring forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Some breaks of sun, but very gloomy with the ongoing crisis, and several wintry like storms tracking near our area.

Watch for wet snow to spread across the state into New Hampshire this afternoon.

As a storm tracks south of New England, look for northeast winds to increase, along with temperatures falling to near freezing. Nor’easter? Technically, yes. Although the saving grace is that the storm will be progressive.

However, as it moves southeast of Cape Cod later tonight, it appears as if if it’s going to suddenly intensify. This could bring a burst of heavy snowfall for much of interior loacations, say north and west of Rt 128. This will include much of the state of New Hampshire, Vermont, and eventually Maine.

Snow could fall heavily at times tonight, adding up to between 3 and 6″ north and west of Rt 128, and between 4 and 8″ north and west of I495. This will include coastal New Hampshire and Maine.

If you live in elevated locations above 1000 ft, you can expect between 6 to 9″ but possibly up to 12″ in elevations over 2000 ft. This is enough to bring some scattered power outages due to branches snapping from the weight of the wet snow.

If you live along the immediate coast line, you can expect wet snow to fall this afternoon, which may change to rain during the early evening. This will limit accumulations to a coating to possibly as much as 2″ if it comes down hard enough.

Areas just inland set back from the coast heading towards Rt 128 will see heavier wet snow accumulating between 2 and 4″ depending upon your elevation and distance from the ocean.

Areas south of Boston will see a brief burst of wet snow, which should change to rain later this afternoon and evening. The rain could fall heavily at times overnight. This is especially true near the ocean.

If you live in interior southeastern Massachusetts, such as Bridgewater, Mansfield, Easton areas, heavy snow may linger longer, and accumulate 1 to 3″ before it changes to rain.

The storm will be winding down early tomorrow morning. No doubt, interior locations will need to do some shoveling and plowing!

For the rest of us, the strong March sun will be out by late morning leading to rapidly melting snow, as temperatures warm up into the low 50’s!

Expect increasing clouds tomorrow night, with temperatures falling into the 20’s and 30’s. Coldest where any snow remains on the ground.

Another storm threatens for Wednesday! Latest guidance actually track this storm further south away from New England. But I don’t trust this! We could be looking at a similar scenario unfolding across the region as today.

If this storm does indeed track closer than anticipated, it could bring accumulating snow right to the coast Wednesday night. I will be following this carefully over the next day, and update everyone if conditions warrant.

Thursday looks decent at this point, only to be followed by another storm for Friday and Saturday which could bring mainly rain to southern New England, but possibly more snow for the higher elevations up north.

Hopefully, it clears out in time for a decent Sunday? If the storm moves out, expect partly sunny skies, with highs in the 50’s. If the storm slows down, it may be damp and chilly, with highs only in the 40’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating everyone on this ever changing spring forecast. I will also have our new spring timetable. In the meantime, perhaps build a snowman tomorrow morning to celebrate spring?

Please be safe, everyone! Prayers for all who are sick and on the front line!

I understand the severity of the situation, and the many hardships that will follow.

I hope by reading the weather blog, it gives everyone a temorary break from the crisis any hand.

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Countdown to Spring! 3/16/20

Hello! In spite of everything that’s going on, I hope everyone had a nice, weekend! Saturday was a beautiful late winter/early spring day, featuring sunny skies, and temperatures in the mid 50’s. This was about 10 degrees cooler than Friday.

Sunday also featured quite a bit of sunshine, however temperatures were another 10 degrees cooler than Saturday. With the near equinox sun angle, temperatures never feel as “cold” when your in the sun.

There’s a ton of sunshine out there today, but temperatures once again, are about 5 degrees colder than yesterday. If you can, get out and enjoy the invigorating air!

We are now in the final days of winter! The spring equinox officially arrives Thursday, March 19th at 11:50 P.M. This is the earliest arrival of spring in over a century!

You may say, Pete, what winter? Trust, me, I am saying the same thing! Not only was it the second warmest winter on record, but Boston also broke a record for receiving the least amount of snowfall during astronomical winter, which ran from December 21st to March 19th. During this period, Boston has only received a measly 3.6″ of snow!

This will not go down as the least snowiest winter on record. This was set in the 1936-37 winter when the city only received 9.0″ of snow. Just 8 years ago in the 2011-12 winter, Boston only saw 9.3″ of snow, for the second least snowiest winter on record.

Due to a snowfall in early December, Boston managed to receive 15.1″ of snow this winter. This was the only snowstorm of the year, and it happened way back on December 1st through the 3rd.

This was actually quite a snowstorm for interior areas of southern New England, where many communities received between 1 and 2 ft of snow!

There was even some reports of close to 3 ft in some areas of north central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire! Ahhhh…those were the days!

It was a different story here along the coast. While there was a brief burst of heavy snow at the start of the storm, the middle of the storm was a driving cold rain and sleet, only to turn back to snow as the storm pulled away. This left between 6 and 9″ of snow and ice along coastal regions.

This happened so long ago, most folks have completely forgot about the storm. It was also the only snowstorm of the winter for Boston, and for many here in eastern Massachusetts.

To my complete surprise, winter essentially ended around mid December. With the colder than normal November, and the snow arriving the first of December, I really thought we were in for quite a winter.

However, it ended up being a very meager winter indeed. In fact, this was the worst winter for weather action for meteorologists and weather enthusiasts since 8 years ago, in the non winter of 2011-12. Terrible!

With all that being said, this segment is not intended to be a Winter review.

I will be doing that sometime in April, when the threat of additional snowfall has passed. And when I say April, I’m talking mid April around here in Boston. This means late April or early May in northern New England.

With such a warm winter, you would think we are going to skip spring and waltz right into summer, right? I was thinking the same thing, but now I’m not so confident of this happening.

Overall, I’m expecting a warmer than normal spring. However, I can not rule out a colder than normal month, over the next three. My instinct tells me to watch out for April.

After months of well above average temperatures, there is some changes occurring to the weather pattern. I mentioned last week to beware of when the seasons begin to change.

Do I believe this is a major hemispheric pattern change that will introduce a cooler regime heading into summer and next fall. Hardly.

At this early juncture, I’m still expecting a warmer than normal summer for New England this summer. Why not? Boston has seen warmer than normal summers for nearly a decade now.

However, before we get there, I have some concerns for early spring. The Polar Vortex, which has been so strong locked up over the North Pole all winter, is beginning to weaken. If the vortex splits, it could send lobes of cold air towards mid latitudes, where we live.

In addition, the Greenland Block is showing signs of developing. This means high pressure building across Greenland. When this happens, it can divert the jet stream south of New England, allowing colder weather to establish itself across New England.

This does not mean keep the winter coats out this time of the year. Temperature departures are rising this time of year, so even colder than normal air masses are modified.

However, if a coastal storm develops along the east coast, it could mean the possibility of late season snow across our region.

There is even the outside chance of a late season nor’easter, with strong winds, and heavy precipitation. The timeframe to look out for this to happen would be between March 28th and April 10th.

Overall, I’m targeting April as a cooler than normal month. The good news is I do not see this pattern locking in for late spring early summer. We should resume our above average temperature regime in May and June, then continue throughout this summer.

There’s no guarantee of any of this happening. If the colder period does not happen in April, there’s a possibilty Boston sees a full year of above average temperatures from December of 2019 to December of 2020. The warm cycle is unprecedented, and shows no sign of ending.

If you thought ski season was done, it’s not because of lack of snow! The coronavirus has forced many resorts to prematurely close. Call ahead, if you can find a resort that is open.

Most of this week will feature near to below average temperatures. The exception will be Friday. Before then, two storms will bring either snow or mixed precipitation for the mountains tomorrow, then again on Thursday. Temperatures may briefly warm up into the 40’s and 50’s Friday, only to plummet again this weekend!

As for our area, I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect sunny but chilly weather for the rest of this afternoon. A chilly wind off of the ocean will keep temperatures mainly in the 30’s along the coast. You may also notice some high cloudiness beginning to increase towards evening.

Expect increasing cloudiness tonight. A weak storm will be approaching from the west as we head towards morning. If precipitation arrives early enough, there may be just enough cold air leftover for some wet snow showers early tomorrow morning, especially north and west of Rt 128.

Otherwise, expect periods of rain showers for your Tuesday. It will be raw, with highs struggling through the 40’s. Happy St. Patrick’s Day to all!

In years past, St. Patrick’s Day has been notorious for one last snowstorm for Boston, before we are allowed to enjoy spring. Not the case this year, but we’re also not enjoying the mid 80’s we enjoyed back in 2012.

Wednesday will feature partly sunny skies, with a brisk wind. Temperatures should warm up a bit into the low 50’s.

Another fast storm will track from west to east, and may actually pass just south of New England on Thursday. If true, temperatures would cool once again into the 40’s with easterly winds, along with steady rainfall. As mentioned above, it could be cold enough up north for wet snow.

Yet another storm is forecasted to track west of New England on Friday. Happy Spring! When storms take this track, and nearly all of them have for the past two years, it drags a warm front through the region. If this warm front passes north of Massachusetts, there is a good chance temperatures could spike into the 70’s! Enjoy!

A cold front will sweep off the coast Friday night, dropping temperatures back into 40’s on Saturday, with a brisk wind.

Sunday should feature windy and colder weather. Don’t start this nonsense New England! It would now officially be springtime! My sister Pam will be very upset!

Nevertheless, Mother Nature does not take our feelings into account! Temperatures will remain in the 30’s! Sunshine will make it feel warmer, for what it’s worth!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know if the chance of a early spring storm is still a possibilty. I will also check in on our spring timetable.

These will be difficult times for many. There are no words to understand what’s going on. Please be patient, understanding, and listen to our authorities while this awful virus runs its course. In the meantime, start the clock ticking for spring!

Be safe and healthy!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It’s Here…Spring Fever! 3/9/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their, weekend! Let’s just say the weekend did not start off the way it finished!

If you were anywhere close to the coast Friday night, you could tell something big was close by! Winds were gusting between 30 and 40 mph around Boston, with periods of snow flurries. There was no accumulation in Boston.

Along the south shore, winds were between 40 and 50 mph. Somewhere along a line from Quincy, to Milton, extending southwest towards Westwood points south and east, 1 to 3″ of wet snow accumulated overnight.

This included much of the Cape, where powerful winds of between 50 and 60 mph with some higher gusts battered the region overnight Friday.

Yes, there was a very intense nor’easter rapidly intensifying southeast of Nantucket! Had this storm developed any tracked 150 miles further west, much of eastern Massachusetts would of been buried under 18 to 24″ of wet snow!

This storm meandered up into the North Atlantic Ocean and brought blizzard conditions Saturday night and into Sunday to, you guessed it, eastern Newfoundland! What a winter they’ve been having this year!

Not so much around here! In fact, this was the only storm that threatened the coast this whole winter…and we missed it!

The storm quickly pulled away Saturday morning, leaving us with a brisk, but sunny day!

Sunday featured nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, with temperatures warming up into the lower to mid 50’s across the region.

It was yet another great day to go for a walk in your local park, a hike in the woods, or even hit the slopes for some spring skiing!

Which leads us to today. If projections are correct, it could hit 70 today in Boston! Long rage computer model guidance suggests it could get even warmer come next week!

Early spring? Judging by the way things are looking, I would say, yes!! It won’t be long now until flowers start popping, trees begin to bud, and the grass begins to turn green. There have been many reports of some flowers blooming in sunny areas around the region.

If you think this is a bit early, you are 100% correct. We are running about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. With such a mild winter, spring has had no problem advancing north since January.

It’s already close to New York City, and if things remain as warm as they have been, it should arrive in Boston close to St. Patrick’s Day.

This is if everything remains as they have been. Meaning temperatures between 6 and 10 degrees above average the entire winter.

Now that we’re in March, the sun angle is increasing, and the days are getting longer. In fact, we gain more daylight during March, than any other month! Therefore, spring should arrive early this year, right?

I’m anticipating this…but, this is New England after all! After two less than stellar springs, it’s entirely possible we run the table this year with warm weather straight into summer! We deserve it, right?

Unfortunately, Mother Nature does not always see it that way. There’s always that fear in the back of everyone’s mind, that somewhere down the line, we’re going to have to pay for this unseasonably mild winter. This is most likely true.

My concern: this is not a forecast just a theory, is that when the seasons change in a couple weeks, the Polar Vortex which has been locked up over the North Pole all winter, will begin to weaken & break apart, sending lobes of cold air towards the mid latitudes where we live.

There’s still the chance that before spring truly arrives, we would need to go through a wintry siege later March and into early April.

A double whammy would be if the NAO also known as the Greenland Block goes negative, this could foul up what could be a glorious spring around here.

What that would do, is send a trough of low pressure (cold & stormy) directed towards the east coast and New England. This would bring below average temperatures, and possibly late season nor’easters with rain and even snow.

Some computer models have been hinting at such a scenario starting the last 10 days of March and continuing into the first part of April.

Currently, I am not anticipating this verifying. However, it can get very dicey around here as we transition out of winter. And the fact that we have not even had a winter makes the road even more slippery. Eventually, the pattern is going to flip. It can’t stay warm forever.

With that being said, most of the guidance I am seeing keeps the good times rolling through the spring. If true, we can indeed be treated to a rare early spring, with warmer than normal weather straight into summer!

Keep in mind, we do live in New England, and the climate tends to be very fickle around here. Cold and snow is never that far away from Canada, neither is damp and rainy weather from the ocean.

In a typical spring, most vegetation remains dormant until at least the spring equinox. Some warm years, such as this one, things will be blooming on the earlier side.

When the equinox arrives, the suns radiation dramatically increases in our region. This allows things to begin to bloom. Grass typically begins to green up by early April. It may be earlier this year due to the warm temperatures.

Leaf out is when the trees bloom their leaves. In Boston, this typically occurs around May 1st give or take a few days. This may take until Memorial Day across interior of New England, and especially up in higher elevations up north. Some cold springs can even wait until the beginning of June in these areas!

Depending on the weather, Boston runs on a six month cycle of mowing. As a rule of thumb, mowing begins on May 1st, and finishes on November 1st. Some folks mow before and after, but that is a general guidance.

Last frosts vary greatly across the region. If you live inside Route 128 and along the coast, the threat of last frost can be as early as March 31st, but can also be as late April…sometimes even into early May! Typically anytime after May 10th is safe for plants to be outdoors. These dates have been trending earlier, due to a warmer climate & urban heat island effect.

Across the interior inland areas, frosts can persist well into May, so planting is typically safe to begin after Memorial Day.

Getting back to the present pattern. if you are a fan of early spring weather, and I know there are many of you out there, these next couple days are for you!

As mentioned earlier, I’m expecting highs close to 70 degrees today, and well up into the 60’s tomorrow. These are temperatures normal for mid May, not early March! This is some 25 degrees above normal for the date.

With the warmer temperatures, we have transitioned into spring skiing much earlier than other years. What a difference a year makes.

Last March, ski resorts were having a tough time keeping up with the onslaught of late winter storms. So much snow fell in March, followed by a chilly April, kept some ski resorts open well into May!

Unless things somehow reverse in April, I do not see the same fate for ski resorts this year. Nevertheless, the mountains received the lions share of snowfall this winter. Therefore, they still have plenty of snow to keep operating at least through March, and most likely into the first half of April.

I will rate this week a 7 out of 10 for skiers. Mild temperatures, with plenty of snow on the slopes should keep everyone happy.

Expect mild weather the next couple days, with temperatures in the 50’s. There could be some showers tomorrow night followed by sunny and cooler weather for Wednesday and Thursday.

An active storm will take a similar track so many storms took this winter on Friday, cutting right through southern New England up along the Maine coast. This could bring accumulating wet snow across the mountains of northern & western New England.

If this materializes, a beautiful weekend of skiing could be in the cards. A cold high pressure north of New England will make it feel like winter in the mountains on Sunday.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

Watch for spring fever to grip the city of Boston and surrounding areas this afternoon. This despite not receiving a winter this year, folks will fill city parks and waterfront areas enjoying 100% of the possible sunshine and temperatures close to 70 degrees!

An added bonus will be the light winds to further enjoy the warm temperatures. If you live on the south coast of New England or Cape Cod, you can deduct 15 degrees from this temperature. This is due to the south winds blowing across the still relatively cold Atlantic Ocean.

You love the natural air conditioning in the heat of August, but feel cheated in early spring with the chilly temperatures! Living in these areas comes with a price!

Expect fair and mild weather tonight, as the full “Worm Moon” rises in the east! Native American Indians named it the worm moon because this is the time of year earth worms begin to poke through the earth, as the ground thaws.

Tuesday will be another warm day. There could be a few more clouds than today, but any showers should wait until after dark. Temperatures will have no problem reaching the mid 60’s.

As mentioned above, there will be a few showers crossing the region Tuesday night. After the cold front passes through, temperatures will cool off into the 30’s and 40’s.

Wednesday and Thursday look dry and cooler at this point, with mainly sunny skies. Temperatures will be cooler, but still above normal for the date. Expect highs mainly in the 50’s.

Clouds could increase later Thursday. A storm developing across the southwest will track through southern New England and up along the Maine coast on Friday.

This storm will bring rain to southern New England straight up along the Maine coast. As mentioned above, it may be just cold enough for snow to fall in the higher elevations of northern and western New England.

After this storm passes, cooler and drier weather will follow for Saturday, under mainly sunny skies. Temperatures should be in the 40’s and low 50’s. Sunny weather is expected for Sunday, but temperatures will be a touch colder, with highs holding in the 40’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be issuing my spring forecast. I think we have a good idea at how this may turn out this year! I will also have your St. Patrick’s Day forecast. In the meantime, it may not officially be spring, but don’t tell that to Mother Nature!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

March…Rapid Changes! 3/2/20

Hello! Welcome to meteorological spring! I hope everyone enjoyed their, weekend! Overall, it was back to seasonable weather around here. Saturday was changeable, with some areas seeing some snow squalls. Sunday featured plenty of sun, but temperatures were hard pressed to get out of the 30’s.

Due to this being a leap year, Boston avoided recording their warmest winter on record! It’s true, if February ended on Friday, Boston would of either tied or broken the record for the warmest winter in recorded history!

As it turned out, temperatures on Saturday turned out below normal, which was a rarity this past February. However, this was enough to knock this winter out from being the warmest winter on record.

Winter 2001-02 will remain as the warmest winter on record, with an average temperature of 37.8 degrees. This winter finished just one tenth of a degree lower, at 37.7 degrees, and was good enough for second warmest on record.

This beat out some exceptionally recent warm winters such as 2011-12 and 2015-16. As mentioned above, had it not been for the leap year day, this would of been the warmest winter on record here in Boston.

The combination of January and February featured one of the least snowiest two months in recorded history. While January featured 3.1″, February only received .5″! This was also good enough for 2nd place, behind 1937, when only 2″ fell.

Just imagine if we had not received that snow at the beginning of December? Had we not received that snow, we would of easily been looking at not only the warmest winter, but also the least snowy winter ever recorded.

While attending my nephew’s high school hockey game last Friday, I had a nice discussion with my brother in law, Michael. I always love chatting with Michael about current events, and our perspective on climate change.

Though we tend agree to disagree in certain areas, our discussions are always civil and informative. I always leave learning something new!

With all that being said, Friday’s discussion centered around the near record warm winter we’ve been having. I had mentioned that we’re going to need a major hemispheric pattern change to break out of this persistant warm weather pattern we’ve been in, basically since the epic 2015 winter.

Michael believes that we have entered a new era in climate change, and this is the new norm around here…most likely being a permanent change. Meaning, the winters we have seen the past few years are going to be the norm for the foreseeable future.

This…I could not disagree more! I tried explaining to him that the weather and atmosphere, while stagnent for several seasons now, is chaotic, and can change on a dime.

Folks…this is only temporary. The weather patterns go in cycles. We have had mild, nearly snowless winters in the past.

It was just 8 years ago, when Boston saw only 9.3″ of snow for the entire winter, and temperatures in the 80’s in March! Remember that? People were going to the beach on St. Patrick’s Day! We had nearly one week of temperatures in the mid 80’s. Trees were blooming in early April, nearly one month ahead of schedule.

A similar winter occurred in 2001-02. I also mentioned in last weeks blog the snow drought and warm winters Boston received between the years of 1979 and 1992. During this period, Boston saw only 2 winters with above average snow, 2 with near average, and the rest were all well below normal, similar to this year. The city also only received 3 snowstorms with greater than 12″ of snow during those 14 years!

It may be not next year, perhaps not even the year after. But one of these years, the pattern is going to dramatically change. The nor’easters will return with a vengeance. Snow, which was thought of to be a thing of the past, will once again bury city neighborhoods.

Who knows??? As mild as it has been, there’s actually the potential for a snowstorm around here this weekend! Even in warm winters, there’s still the potential of a memorable event. In some cases, it only takes one good one!

Before we see any chance of snow, we have several days of warm and occasionally wet weather to get through. In keeping with the theme of the winter, March is looking to feature above normal precipitation.

Typically, Boston receives about 8″ of snow in March, on average. We have received above average snow over the last 4 out 5 March’s. In many cases, this was coming off a warmer than normal winter.

While it’s looking like another mainly warmer than normal month, I can see some variability this March. It could mean a couple well timed nor’easters with cold air arriving at the right time, to produce snowfall.

For this reason, I can envision above average snow in Boston this March. This is quite the contrary from this winter, but that’s what I’m going with!

We know Boston has seen some decent March snow in recent years, but this pales in comparison with what’s been going on up north. Ski resorts have received deep March snows in recent years. This has allowed ski areas to remain open well into the spring. How about early June last year at Killington!

How’s it looking for this week? I would rate this week a 7 out of 10 up north. Expect some inclement weather for the period Tuesday through Thursday. Warmer than it has been, and some periods of rain and mixed precipitation, but no washout anticipated.

Watch for colder weather beginning on Friday through the upcoming weekend. An ocean storm will be developing off the mid Atlantic coast. If this storm phases with another storm diving down from canada, there could be a rapidly intensifying nor’easter to contend with on Saturday.

In this scenario, much of the region would see accumulating snowfall. In the worst case, the storm would lash eastern New England with heavy wet snow and strong winds.

It’s just too early to call whether these two storms merge in time. If this winter pattern is any indication, the two storms will remain separate, and we’ll only see a glancing blow.

But…you never know! I will monitor this closely over the course of the week, and will update everyone if conditions warrant.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10…weighted heavily on the warm weather for much of the week.

Expect sunny any milder weather for the rest of today, with highs bumping up to near 50.

Overnight, look for considerable clouds, with the chance of some showers moving through late at night. It will be mild, with lows mainly in the upper 30’s and 40’s.

Expect mainly warm and at times somewhat unsettled weather for the period of Tuesday through Thursday. No washouts are anticipated, but there will be areas of showers from time to time.

The big story will be the temperatures. It will be feeling very much like mid April, with temperatures in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. If we see any sun tomorrow, Boston even has a chance at breaking a record for the date!

After some early showers, a cold front will move through the region on Friday. Windy and colder weather will begin to move in during the afternoon, with dropping temperatures.

As mentioned above, the weather this weekend remains in question. There are many possible outcomes ranging from getting grazed by an ocean storm with light rain and wet snow, a heavy rainstorm with wind, or a battering nor’easter with heavy wet snow and strong winds. I will monitor this situation closely, and update everyone if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a preliminary spring outlook. I will also talk about our spring timetable here in New England.

Since it’s still officially winter, I will have a new ski and snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, keep your New England weather artillery handy…anything can happen!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

A Tale of Two Seasons! 2/24/20

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a beautiful weekend weatherwise across all of New England. Whether you were walking along the beach or skiing up in the mountains, it was a weekend most everyone could enjoy!

Saturday began on the cold side, but light winds and sunny skies allowed temperatures to moderate up into the mid 40’s. With the winds being so light, it certainly felt much better being outdoors than Friday!

The momentum carried into Sunday, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, temperatures soared up into the upper 50″s across much of eastern Massachusetts. As a reminder, this is still late February…not late April!

On and on it goes…when it stops, nobody knows! Currently, Boston is experiencing its second warmest winter on record. Only 2001-02 was warmer, and not by much. It’s possible with the mild temperatures over the next few days, we may indeed pop back into the number one all time warmest winter on record in Boston!

A cold front slicing through the region on Thursday will plummet temperatures back to seasonal, if not slightly below seasonal levels come Saturday and Sunday. This may be just cold enough to knock us back into second place, but it’s going to be close!

Oddly enough, it will not go down as the least snowiest winter on record. That record still holds from the 1936-37 winter, when only 9″ of snow fell in Boston. It was just 8 years ago where Boston saw its second least snowiest winter on record when only 9.3″ fell. This year Boston stands at 15.1″.

You may ask, when did this snow fall? I don’t remember any snowfall this winter? True, there has only been a half inch in February, but the city did receive 3″ in January. Our most snow this winter fell in the first couple weeks of December, when we actually received above average snowfall of a little over 11 inches. Not much, since then!

For this year, it’s a tale of two seasons. In fact, this winter is very similar to last winter! A sharp dividing line delineates the haves, and have nots!

Locations north of the Massachusetts border up into northern New England have experienced a fairly normal winter. Ski resorts have received plenty of snow this winter, and will only be adding to their deep bases aver the next couple weeks.

Down here in southern New England, especially here in eastern Massachusetts, it’s been the case of the have nots! In fact, you could go as far to say that we’re in a snow drought the past couple seasons!

Some friends have asked me whether this is due to climate change? This is just my opinion, but currently I do not believe that this is part of a major long term shift in our climate.

I realize this winter seems extreme on the warm side, but we have had clunkers before in the past! I believe our winters go in cycles and patterns.

Did you know the period between 1979 and 1992, a period of 14 years, Boston only received 2 above normal snow seasons, 2 near average, and the rest were all duds! Winters very similar to last year and this year!

During that 14 year stretch, Boston only received 3 storms which featured 12″ of snow or greater. Ugh!

Do I think this is a trend? I do believe there are short term cycles, that last 2 to 3 years. However, there are also longterm cycles, such as the one we experienced in the 80’s, which can last up to 10 to 15 years!

At this point, it’s difficult to say whether these type of winters are going to be the norm for an additional several years. It’s possible we receive more snow next winter, but there’s no guarantee. Seasonal forecasts have become very unreliable in recent years.

Let’s remember, the seasonal snowfall average at Logan Airport is 44″, not 64″! After several winters of 60 to 70″ and the epic winter of 110.8″ five years ago, there was bound to be a correction in the averages. At best seasonal forecasats are an educated guess.

I read a lot of winter forecasts…there are a chosen few out there that closer to being correct the majority. Not nailing it, but forecasted generally below normal snowfall for the I95 corridor. I don’t know how they did it, because most signs pointed to a very active, snowy winter!

This is not an excuse for another poor winter forecast on my part. For those expecting a snowier than normal winter with some big nor’easters, I feel your pain! I was too!

Many other professional meteorologists were expecting a snowy winter as well!

Longtime Boston meteorologist and horticulturist Dave Epstein sent an interesting tweet over the weekend. He posted pictures showing the extreme difference one year can be to the next around here.

It was just five years ago this month that Boston experienced its most severe stretch of winter weather conditions in nearly 300 years!

In just a little over 3 weeks time, Boston was clobbered with a staggering 94.4″ of snow between January 24th and February 15th. Much of which did not melt, due to the lethal combination of record cold accompanying the extreme snowfall.

I do not need to remind everyone the hardship such extreme snowfall brought to our region. Not only did folks have a hard time digging out of their own owns, but once they did, they had extreme difficulties getting into work due to a paralyzed transportation system.

To add insult to injury, nearly every house in the region was affected by ice dam damage. Some homes escaped with very little damage, while others saw full on glaciers entering their homes.

I was chatting with an insurance agent from Texas in the spring, and he told me this damage in the Boston area was similar if not worse than some of the major hurricanes that have hit southern regions.

The point I’m trying to make, is that it’s the extremes that make the averages around here. Should winters like that had become the norm, well, we would had to change the name of our state to Alaskachusetts!

Since the epic winter, Mother Nature is doing her job steadily balancing things out. After the 2017-18 winter, we have seen very little in the way of wintry weather around here. I’m sure the cycle will reverse once again, and the madness that goes along with it, will be back!

Oh yes, there’s one small ***asterisk***I must add. My tone may seem as if I’m implying that winter is over. Let’s not be to naive to understand that it’s still only February 24th! Spring does not officially arrive for another 3 weeks, and there is always the possibility of an April blizzard! This is New England after all!

As mentioned above, ski season has been the recipient of another banner year! There has been plenty of natural snow up north this winter. Not terribly cold…but just cold enough to snow.

I would rate this week another 9 out of 10 for ski resorts. Expect fair and mild weather the rest of today, with highs in the low 40’s. It will turn progressively cooler up north the rest of the week. The next storm to impact the north country is Wednesday night and all of Thursday.

While southern areas will see a mix of snow, sleet and rain, it will be a different story up north, where many resorts should see a major snowfall in the order of 6 to 12″ in many areas. Some favored resorts can easily expect over 12″ of snow across the White Mountains, and the mountains of Maine.Thereafter, it will turn much colder on Friday and through the upcoming weekend, under mainly dry conditions. Bundle up & enjoy!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect full spring conditions in Boston, today. Look for nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, with highs in the lower 60’s! A great day for early May!

Tonight will see increasing cloudiness. It will remain on the mild side, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Watch for inclement weather for the period from Tuesday through Thursday. It will be too warm for snow here in the Boston area. However, places into southern N.H. Could see some periods of mixed snow and rain. As mentioned earlier, just some periods of rain or drizzle here in the Boston area tomorrow and Wednesday.

A larger storm will develop southwest of New England, and begin tracking towards the St Lawrence River Valley Wednesday night and Thursday.

An active cold front will be tracking across the region, bringing periods of heavy rain to Boston, a mix in southern New Hampshire, and heavy snow across the northern ski resorts. This storm will continue up north well into Thursday, but be swept off the coast down here by midday.

Thereafter, expect winds to pick up, and cooler temperatures to rush back into the region during the afternoon. Morning temperatures could still be in the upper 40’s.

Friday will feature blustery wind chilly weather, with highs in the 30’s.

Expect a dry but cold weekend for much of New England. The coldest weather will be up north with the fresh snowfall, where highs will only be in the teens and 20’s.

It will be cold down here in Boston, too, but nothing that we haven’t seen yet this winter. Expect highs to be wintry like for sure, mainly in the low 30’s both Saturday and Sunday.

March coming in like a lion? Sure, temperature wise, I would say yes, why not? Temperatures are expected to warm up once again later next week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have our March preview! I will also review the meteorological winter of December, January and February. Where has the time gone? In the meantime, we made it this far, let’s pray for no surprise endings!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy birthday to my niece Nicole! (February 22nd)

Spring Advancing North! 2/17/20

Hello! I hope everyone is enjoying the long holiday, weekend! The weather so far has been fairly benign. Saturday was on the cold side, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of the year.

I believe it just felt a lot colder than what it was, mainly because we got used to the warm temperatures we’ve been experiencing this winter. Although I must admit, there was a nasty bite to that wind on Saturday morning!

As has been the case all winter, Sunday featured more clouds, but a rapid rise in temperatures, with highs reaching the mid 40’s across much of the Boston area.

Expect near 100% of the possible sunshine for your Presidents Day holiday. I will have more details in my forecast shortly.

The signs keep popping up everywhere. Folks posting pictures of crocuses poking up through the ground. Spring birds singing their melodies in the morning. Longer days, as our sunsets are now well past 5:00 P.M. A few short weeks from now sunsets will be 6:30 as we spring ahead with daylights savings time!

If that’s not enough, I saw an interesting tweet this morning from a local meteorologist showing Doppler radar capturing migratory birds flying north across Florida this morning!

Finally, my friend Maria messaged me yesterday asking me when I thought the cherry blossoms would be blooming in Washington D.C. this spring?

I told her if the pattern continues the way it’s been going, the blossoms may bloom at a record early date, sometime in mid March.

It’s true…spring is advancing north some 3 to 4 weeks ahead of schedule!

The picture attached to my post today depicts exactly where green up is occurring right now. The red shows how far north it has already progressed.

If correct, green up is only a couple hundred miles south of Washington D.C. and is creeping up the coast to Delaware!

If you think it’s been warm here in Boston, which it has been, locations to our south have literally had no winter, or very little winter to speak of. For instance, the city of Philadelphia has only received 3 tenths of an inch of snow so far this entire winter.

You could say it’s been a snowless winter down there. They also run the risk of going through the entire month of February without any measurable snowfall for the first time in recorded history!

Here in Boston, we have measured about 15″ of snow. You may ask, when? It seems as if it hasn’t snowed the whole winter.

Actually, there was quite a significant snowstorm, especially across inland areas to start winter off on December 1st. At the time, it was looking like my winter forecast was going to be on point this year.

Overall, Boston received above normal snow in December, with a little over 11″ falling. We had one minor snow event in January, and that has been about it!

The big story this winter has been the temperatures! At one point last week Boston was flirting with being the warmest winter in recorded history!

The cold snap over the weekend knocked us out of that spot, but if warm temperatures return for the last 10 days of February, there still a chance we return to that top spot!

In some ways, the winter is very similar to last winter. It’s been a case of two seasons here in New England. While It’s been pretty much a non winter down here in southern New England, I must say once you cross the border to New Hampshire, it’s been a different story!

While not receiving as much snow as last winter, it’s been more than enough for outdoor winter enthusiast to enjoy winter activities such as skiing, snow boarding and snow shoeing.

Yet another storm will move through northern New England tomorrow with an additional 4 to 7″ of snow.

With all this talk of an early spring, one may think I’m all on board rolling out the red carpet for springs arrival. Let’s just say I’m skeptical…very skeptical!

If just going by trends the last several winters which have gotten off to a slow start, winter seemed to linger deep into the spring, torturing those who love warm weather!

Last year was a cruel joke with March being so mild, only to turn cold and very unsettled for both April and May! Do you remember how much rain fell last spring? I do! Some 21 out of 30 days had rain falling in April alone! And the trend continued into May.

Though spring is quickly advancing north across the south, it encounters barriers as it heads north towards New England. First, we’re further north, and spring typically does not arrive until the spring equinox at the earliest.

Second, the cold Atlantic Ocean that surrounds New England to our east, prevents warm air from fully invading our region too quickly.

Because of latent effect, the ocean is only now reaching its coldest temperatures, which will continue through early March.

It takes longer for the oceans to heat up in late winter and spring, and longer for them to cool off in late fall early winter. Therefore, our winters and springs are typically delayed from arriving.

Third, if we get any snowfall in March, it tends to hold back spring, keeping us colder.

At this point, there are no guarantees for March. Honestly, it could go either way. Some computer models are showing a continuation of the record warm winter transitioning into a warm, early spring! Could the migratory birds be onto something??

Others, hold your hat…are forecasting winters fury to be unleashed upon us to begin March! These models are showing well above normal precipitation, and well below normal temperatures.

This does not always transpire to feet of snow! In fact, the pattern this winter has been to bring big storms through New England, as the cold weather has been retreating. After the storm passes, cold & dry air comes rushing back in…too late for any snow.

I agree…this is a very shaky outlook! However, I must say, this pattern of excessively warm temperatures and no snow must break down at some point! At some point we must resume back to typical New England winter weather.

The trends tell me a stormy March is on the way. Something looks like it’s brewing in my opinion. The Polar Vortex is going to be disrupted for a time, blocking could finally occur in Canada, and the bitter cold air over Alaska could finally be dislodged due to building high pressure in that region. All this could result in March coming in like a lion!

However, I did say that for February too, and Boston has only received a trace of snow so far. I know this sounds wishy washy, but the long range weather patterns have been largely unpredictable for a couple years now.

No need to panic or celebrate just yet. I still have a couple weeks to review the data to see how March is going to turn out.

As I mentioned, I’m leaning towards a big finish from winter…otherwise it will go down as one of the lamest winters in history!

It’s February vacation week for schools here in Massachusetts! I’m very excited to report that ski conditions are at their very best all season. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10! Expect beautiful weather for today, with sunshine followed by some increasing clouds later in the day. It will be seasonable, with highs mainly in the 30’s.

A fast moving storm will cut across southern New England tomorrow. This storm will bring snowy conditions all day to most ski resorts, bringing between 4 and 7″ of accumulation. Perfect timing!

Thereafter, dry and seasonable weather will follow through the end of the week. Be aware another cold shot similar to the one we just had will move through the area on Thursday and Friday, only to moderate again by this weekend.

Now for your outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week 7 out of 10.

Expect deep blue skies and sunny weather for the rest of your Presidents Day. Temperatures should be on the mild side, with highs in the low 40’s. Nice day to get out for a brisk walk!

Expect increasing clouds tonight. It will not be that cold, with lows dropping into the 20’s and 30’s.

A fast moving storm will take a similar track of all previous storms this winter, tracking through southern New England. Therefore, southern New England may see a brief period of snow across Worcester county, before changing to rain.

The Boston area could see a few wet flakes, then rapidly turn to rain. If this storm tracked south of New England, the snow would be much closer to Boston.

As mentioned above, the dividing line will be along the Mass / N.H. Border including the seacoast region, and right along the immediate coast of Maine, there could be an inch or two, before some mixing or brief turn to rain. If you live or travel across the interior northern New England, you will receive a 4 to 7″ snowfall tomorrow, with slippery travel conditions.

After this storm pulls out, Wednesday should see a return to March like weather, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 40’s.

A brief cold shot will send temperatures back down into the upper 20’s on Thursday. A late February sun will lessen the bite.

Dry and sunny weather will continue Friday straight on through the upcoming weekend with a noticeable warming trend. Highs will be in the 30’s on Friday, 40’s on Saturday, and possibly low 50’s on Sunday! How about that?

Well, that’s about it for now my friends! In next week’s blog, I will continue to look into whether March will come in like a lion? I will also have your new ski and snow board forecast. In the meantime, slow down spring…winter hasn’t even got here yet!

Thanks for reading!

Pete