One Two, Punch! 12/2/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving holiday, weekend! In my opinion, the weather on Thanksgiving was just the way it is supposed to be.

Very much like late autumn in New England, with cloudy slate gray skies & chilly temperatures. It may of been a bit windy for some, but that just added to the wintry feel to the day.

After a difficult time with the loss of my mother earlier in the month, it was great gathering with family on Thanksgiving to give thanks for the wonderful life my mom provided for us, and talk about all the great memories of mom. I couldn’t do it without family!

As the weekend went on, the weather turned even colder. While Saturday was a bright, sunny day, Sunday became overcast, with temperatures hovering around freezing.

With slate gray skies, Sunday was great day to begin preparing for the holiday season! Whether you were baking, decorating the house, or going out to find the perfect tree, the weather certainly felt like the season!

All while this was going on, a storm was slowly spinning its way towards the mid-Atlantic region, originating from the Midwest.

I was chatting with a couple Twitter friends yesterday, and we were commenting about the wild start it has been to this winter so far! Snow began falling as early as September in Montana, and has since spread deep into the California, Colorado and the upper Midwest.

After the colder than average November, it was only a matter of time before snow paid us a visit here in Boston.

The highly advertised nor’easter finally made its arrival across Massachusetts last evening. Snow rushed into the city by late afternoon yesterday, then fell heavily at times until about midnight. At that point, mild marine air eroded the cold air in place along the coast, changing the snow to rain within 10 miles of the ocean.

Before the changeover, I measured 4″ of wet snow where I live in West Roxbury. Somewhat lesser amounts fell the closer you got to the ocean. On the flip side, heavy snow with thunder fell just west of Rt 128, and across much of central & western Massachusetts, where 8 to 12″ of snow were common.

In some parts of New York state around Albany, and southern Vermont, amounts will measure close to two feet before the storm finally winds down sometime tomorrow!

Even Boston’s Logan Airport broke a snow record for December 1st! Just a pitiful 1.5″ was measured at the airport, but that was enough to break a longstanding record for December 1st dating back to 1940!

It has been quite the start to meteorological winter this year across much of the country. Remember, last winter, Boston only measured .1″ of snow until the 20th of January!

As I explained in my winter outlook last week, I believe this is a sign of a much more active winter along the coast this year.

I’m expecting colder temperatures this winter, in addition to an active storm track closer to the coast. This will lead to above average snowfall this winter across much of New England….including here in Boston!

As for December, I’m expecting stormy weather here in New England. It may not be overwhelmingly cold, but it may be just cold enough for more chances of snow this month.

Boston typically averages about 8″ of snow in December. I can see the city coming in at around a foot this month, with much more across the interior and up north.

Because of an oscillating jet stream, there will be surges of warm weather too. It would not surprise me if the month ends up slightly warmer than normal, due to a few warm surges around mid month. This has actually been the trend in December over the last decade or so, only to turn colder in January.

Long range outlooks do see colder and stormier weather may return in time for a White Christmas?? I will keep you updated for that possibility!

Getting back to the matter at hand, we’re not done with this winter storm quite yet! It has been a very complex storm to forecast…and the complexity only increases tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Latest computer data continues to show this enormous upper level storm system spinning close to New York City today.

This atmospheric spin is expected to track south of New England later today, and actually begin to spawn another low pressure off of Block Island later tonight.

This new storm is expected to begin to rapidly intensify as it tracks northeast passing just east of Boston tomorrow morning.

Right now, computer models are keeping the blockbuster bands of snows just east of Boston!! But boy, is it too close for comfort! Any slight deviation in the track would mean the difference between a crippling blizzard overnight into tomorrow, or just a light to moderate snowfall across the region.

Either way, more significant snow appears likely overnight and into the first part of tomorrow…especially across eastern Massachusetts.

I will have all the details in my forecast shortly.

Most northern ski resorts missed a lot of the snow from this past storm. However, resorts in southern Vermont and in Massachusetts received heavy accumulations!

Nevertheless, I would rank this week a 8 out of 10 across the region. Temperatures should remain mostly below normal this week, and while no big storms are anticipated, there will be some patchy areas of snow from time to time right into this weekend.

Now for our weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Chilly, but no more snowstorms this week after tonight.

For the rest of your Monday, expect changeable conditions. If you live or work just outside of Rt 128, specifically to the north or west, you can expect light snow to continue, with an additional 1 to 2″ of accumulation.

For those south and east of Rt 128, watch for windy weather, along with sheets of drizzle, and temperatures near 40.

For areas in between, like where I live, drizzle has been oscillating with wet snow, and snizzle (frozen drizzle), with temperatures in the mid 30’s.

This is all caused by a semi stationary coastal front which is separating the marine air along the coast, and the colder dense air across the interior.

As we progress into the afternoon, this front will tend to sag southeastward, changing everyone to light snow or snizzle, specifically anytime after 4 PM. So if you need to travel at that time, please proceed with caution, as roads may begin to ice up!

As the new storm begins to track closer to Boston, expect light snow to blossom into steady snow. The snow may fall heavily at times overnight and into the Tuesday morning commute.

In addition, gusty winds will begin to blow the snow around, reducing visibility. The greatest threat for heavy snow and possible winter storm warnings would be for areas east of I 95, especially from Boston points northeast. Also points north into southern New Hampshire along the seacoast.

This new storm has been poorly forecast by computer models, so there’s still some question on the exact track of the storm.

As I mentioned earlier, should the storm track slightly closer to the coast, many areas including Boston could experience a period of white out and blizzard conditions later tonight and into tomorrow morning.

Should the storm track slightly east, then lighter accumulations will be the end result.

Based upon what I’m seeing, here’s is my best estimate as what to expect for accumulations. For locations in Boston, inside of Rt 128, I am expecting an additional 4 to 7″ of snow from this storm. Areas north of Boston, especially east of I95, this could quickly build up to 6 to 10″ north shore of Boston, and along the New Hampshire seacoast region, up along the Maine coast. There will be some surprises!

Areas outside of Rt 128 should see less, on the order of 2 to 4″, and then 1 to 3″ heading towards I 495 and beyond.

For friends down on the Cape, you too can expect a change to snow, and it might be blowing around pretty good tomorrow morning with some rough driving. Right now I’m calling for between 1 and 3″ , but could be more if a few heavy bands rotate through the area.

So you can see the second part of this storm is for mainly areas that saw the least amount of snow from the first part of the storm.

Just a word of caution. Because of the banding nature of this storm, there will be areas that could get even more snow than what I have forecast. Subsequently, dry slots could cut down in other areas. It’s impossible to pin point these areas. Maximum accumulation could be as high as 10″, and as little as 2″. Based upon this, I decided to take a median of the amounts.

Also, due to the timing of the storm, there may indeed be delays and school cancellations. If the band sets up over Boston as some computer models are indicating, not only will the commute be a nightmare, but schools should consider cancelling classes.

Watch for snow to slowly diminish by noontime tomorrow. Thereafter, it should remain on the cloudy side, although some breaks can not be ruled out towards sunset.

Tomorrow night will be clear and cold, with lows in the teens and 20’s, under the fresh snow cover.

Watch for generally fair weather for both Wednesday and Thursday. Both days will feature below normal temperatures, with highs in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Temperatures may rebound a bit on Friday. However, an approaching cold front could yield more cloudiness, and there is a threat of showers moving into the region later in the day. These showers may briefly change to a period of light snow Friday night, but I would not expect any more than a dusting to an inch.

A brief arctic blast will send temperatures into the low 30’s for next Saturday, along with a biting wind. No precipitation is expected.

Temperatures on Sunday look to quickly moderate, under a mix of sun and clouds. We should rebound back up into the 40’s, possibly even 50’s? Even warmer weather may be on tap the following week, along with increase chances of rain.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know what our chances are for a White Christmas. I will also have a new ski report, as well as your weekly forecast. In the meantime, coastal areas made it through the first punch pretty well. Let’s hope the second one is not a sucker punch!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter 2019-20: Keep Your Winter Gear Handy! 11/25/19

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice, weekend! As far as the weather goes, it was a classic 50/50 weekend. Saturday was brisk day, but featured nearly 100% of the possible sunshine. Clouds thickened overnight Saturday, under chilly temperatures.

Sunday featured a cold, windswept soaking rain along the coast. It was a great day to spend indoors by a warm fire preparing for the holidays, and watching football! At least that’s what I did!

This was not the case in all of New England. In what was the regions first nor’easter of the young season, many ski resorts in northern New England were plastered with between 6 and 12″ of heavy wet snow! Even lower elevations received some accumulation.

Down here in southern New England, and all along I95 heading up into New Hampshire and much of Maine for that matter, it was just a little too warm for any frozen precipitation. Had it been 10 degrees colder, we would of been looking at between 10 and 20″ of snow yesterday!

For those who would rather skip the technical discussion and go right to the forecast, please scroll down towards the bottom.

Could this be a sign at what’s to come this winter? I believe the answer is yes, but the devil is in the details.

If you recall, last year I called for quite a severe winter for much of New England. A small shift in global patterns prevented this for happening, and the worst of winter was felt across the western and central part of the U.S.

A small extension of this intense winter weather extended across northern New England, specifically across the mountains, and into northern Maine.

Last years winter forecast was incredibly frustrating for me, and many other amateur and professional meteorologists alike. It was a systematic failure across the board for all who made a winter forecast.

Last year at this time, seasonal computer model forecasts were depicting a severe winter for the southeastern part of the U.S., extending up into much of New England.

What actually happened was the exact opposite. Severe winter storms and bitterly cold weather occupied much of the western part of the country, and the southeast up into southern New England experienced one of the mildest winters on record!

It was meant to be an El Niño winter, but the atmosphere mimicked a La Niña. All teleconnections that normally bring us snowy & cold weather were being overpowered by a warm subtropical jet stream from the Pacific.

As for myself, I too got caught up in the computer model worshiping, and fell victim to the flawed forecast. I vowed to come back smarter this year, basing my forecast more on natural signs I pick up from Mother Nature, rather than relying all on computer models.

In many ways , this years early winter pattern looks eerily similar to last year. The big question I have at this point, could the winter many envisioned for last year, finally show up to the party this year?

At first glance, yes, it does seem similar in many ways to last year. Early cold and snows are seemingly falling everywhere except along the I95 corridor from Maine to Virginia.

For the second year in a row, it’s been a colder than normal November across much of the country. In some cases record cold, including here in New England.

Does this automatically mean that a severe winter is on the way? No, last year was a good example of why you don’t place all your eggs in one basket!

With that being said, statistics show that a colder than normal November brings above average snow to Boston 90% of the time. Therefore, I’m looking at last year as an anomaly (very unusual occurrence).

As has been the case for the past several years, the winter forecast has been exceptionally challenging. Computer models are shifting high impact areas (cold & snow) around every other day.

In addition, teleconnections and analog years have become less dependable in recent years. Which means you have to interpret computer models, trends, and other factors differently. This leads to a rather large disparity among forecasters, government agencies and publications who give a winter outlook.

Not to single anyone out, but some of the forecasts I have seen for New England have ranged from mild (NOAA / Government), Stormy (Accuweather), near average temperatures & slightly above average snow (WeatherBell Analytics) to colder than normal with above average snowfall from The Old Farmers’ Almanac based out of Dublin, N.H.

There are many other very talented amateur meteorologists who expose their soul with their version of the winter forecast, for better or for worse. These forecasts have also ranged from mild with average snow, to more severe scenarios.

For what it’s worth, and I believe it’s worth a lot more than meteorologists give credit to, the Old Farmers’ Almanac was one of the few who predicted a mild winter with below average snowfall last winter. They are calling for a harsher winter this year.

Believe it or not, I begin my research for the upcoming winter way back in August & September. It’s very preliminary at that point and does not begin to pick up steam until sometime in October.

I wait until November to pick up signs from the jet stream, precipitation patterns, and most importantly temperature profiles, specifically at Logan Airport in Boston.

Other things I key on are ocean temperatures in the Pacific, whether we are in a El Nino, La Nina, or La Nada. I also watch the ocean temperature in the Atlantic, specifically whether they are above normal or colder than normal off of the New England coast. Warmer than normal temperatures can add fuel to nor’easters later in the season.

In recent years I also have become fascinated in the role that our sun plays. There’s considerable debate in the field on how much the sun factors into our climate here in earth. We all know that without the sun, the earth would be a giant ice ball orbiting around in outer space.

What astronomers and meteorologists are focusing more of, is how the number of sunspots affect our seasonal climate from year to year. This is very complicated stuff, and up to this point, nobody has any clear cut answers.

However, the sun is currently in very low, non existing cycle of producing sun spots. They call this solar minimum cycle. Increased sun spot activity sends off solar flares towards earth, in many cases disrupting the Polar Vortex and shrinking it towards the pole, leading to less cold air in the mid latitudes.

This year, we happen to be at the very bottom of the cycle, with no sun spot activity. Looking back at years with similar cycles, they tended to feature more high latitude blocking, a weaker Polar Vortex which can split into many lobes, leading to severe winter conditions across parts of the United States including here in the northeast.

Among other things I carefully monitor is the QBO, (Quasi Biennial Oscillation), which are equatorial winds in the tropical stratosphere which oscillate between blowing easterly and westerly every two years or so.

I believe this is a huge teleconnection for Boston’s weather. Westerly QBO’s tend to bring less nor’easters and milder weather along the coast. While easterly QBO winters are colder, and more nor’easters tend to develop with more snow along the coast.

It’s no surprise last winter was firmly a westerly QBO winter. This year, we are starting in a positive westerly QBO phase, but computer models are showing it trending towards a negative easterly phase later on in the winter. The sooner it turns negative, the more severe our winter is going to be.

Another sign we look for is a specialty research by atmospheric scientist Dr. Judah Cohen. Dr. Cohen is not only an expert on the Polar Vortex, but he also developed a method of forecasting winters by monitoring autumn snowfall across Siberia. The heavier the snowfall in September and October, the greater likely hood of above normal snowfall in east coast cities! Autumn snowfall was above average this fall!

For this winter, it’s important to know that the signal in the Pacific is tending weak Modoki El Nino. Many say it’s La Nada, which means neutral, or not warm or cold. Modoki El Nino means there’s warm water in the central Pacific, with cooler water surrounding it.

In addition, there is a very warm area of water in the Gulf of Alaska. This was a similar set up to the winter of 2013-14 and 2014-15. The meteorologic community termed this patch of warm water the “blob.” This is due to its persistence, and circular blob like shape.

This kind of profile in the Pacific typically brings New England its worst winters. This is because the warm water promotes high pressure, which blocks the mild Pacific air from flooding into the country. In return, the jet stream bulges north into western Canada, which dislodges the heavier cold air straight into the central and eastern U.S.

You may say, Pete, last year was similar. Yes, it was similar. However, last year, there was a very persistent southeast ridge of high pressure due to the positive QBO, with very little Greenland blocking. This plunged the cold air into the west, and a warm ridge persisted across the southeast, extending up along the coast into Boston.

This resulted in a very chaotic winter here in Boston, oscillating between cold and warm. Every time a storm came, it tracked to our west, placing us on the “warm” side of the storm, changing the snow to rain. Only to turn colder after the storm departed.

I’m expecting this winter to be different. This year, I’m expecting more high latitude blocking, which will put the coast “in play” for winter storms this winter. I’m expecting more blocking because of two reasons. One, the “low solar” cycle we are in. And two, the QBO will be trending negative the deeper we go into winter.

This, in conjunction with a very active sub tropical jet stream (warm / moisture) as a result of the Modoki weak El Nino, will send storms across the southern tier of the country. Now, this is the key. Because El Nino will not be too strong, there still will be a strong polar jet stream (cold / energy). It is my theory, these two jet streams are going to merge on their approach to the east coast, resulting in frequent nor’easters and winter storms from the mid Atlantic up into New England.

Looking at some of my natural signs, I see the potential for above normal snowfall in much, if not all of New England this winter. The below average temperatures this November, along with near to above average precipitation during October and November, is a very strong signal which more often than not leads to above average snow in much of New England.

The only thing holding me back from pulling out all the stops this winter was that no measurable snow was reported in Boston this November. Yes, there was some snow in the air a couple times, but no accumulation. Statistics show the biggest winters have at least some accumulation in November…2″ seems to be the magic number. This is going to keep my forecast on the conservative side for Boston.

At first, the snow will be mainly confined for up north and in the mountains. This will set them up for yet another banner ski season! However, unlike last year, I’m expecting winter to make its presence felt along the coast sometime in December, and become severe at times in January and February.

Placing all these pieces of the puzzle together, what am I expecting this winter for New England and the Boston area? I’m expecting a very volatile, stormy winter, which may feature a warm spell sometime in December, only to plummet into the depths of the arctic in January! February may warm up some, but the stormy pattern looks to continue through the month, into and up to the spring equinox in March.

Though I am expecting near to above average snow in Boston this December, the worst of the winter will hold off until January and February, when I’m expecting the bulk of our snow to fall this winter. Hard to tell what March will bring, but odds favor winter to continue into the start of spring once again this year.

How much snow are we talking? At this point, I’m calling for between 50 and 60″ of snow for Boston. On average, Boston receives 44″ of snow. The number is held back slightly due to the concern of sleet, freezing rain and rain holding amounts down in the city, depending upon the track of the storms. I am expecting it to be colder this winter, therefore, the city will receive more frozen precipitation than it did last year.

In my final update around the solstice, I can see tweaking this number up to 60 to 70″ or down (not likely) to 40 to 50.” Let’s start with this range, keeping in mind that the winter could turn severe, depending upon how teleconnections and ocean temperatures behave I mentioned earlier play out.

Sometimes December is a key month in determining how much snow we receive. If it’s a snowy December, it’s like bonus points, before the worst of winter sets in. I will monitor this very carefully, as it could set the stage for a even snowier winter than I’m currently expecting in Boston..

On average, the interior of New England receives more snow than the coast. Somewhere across the interior, not too far away from Boston is going to get an awful lot of snow this winter. I think the area from the Worcester region north towards Manchester, N.H. then east towards Portsmouth N.H. is going to get the jackpot this winter.

Keep in mind in Portsmouth, the ocean can mute the severity of the winter. But just 10 miles inland from Portsmouth could get rough. In this region, I’m expecting between 80 and 100 inches of snow. Amounts will increase the further north one lives, from Lebanon, N.H. to Concord, to Portland, Maine may see greater than 100″ of snow this winter.

Lots of white gold for ski country this winter! It should be plenty cold enough for above average amounts of snow! Greater than 200″ of snow will be common across most of the popular ski resorts across northern New England this winter.

Let’s not forget my friends down on the Cape. The Cape is always a tricky place to forecast one day in advance, never mind an entire winter! Nevertheless, I am expecting quite a show down on the Cape this winter. After a slow start, winter should kick into high gear after the New Year. I’m expecting between 30 and 40″ of snow on the Cape this winter, which is also above their annual average.

This number may also need to be adjusted come the solstice update. I’m expecting heavy precipitation on the Cape this winter. It all depends on ocean temperatures and if snow changes to rain.

One more quick comment. There are indications that this may be colder than normal winter here in Boston. This is taken over an average of the three months of December, January and February. This would be the first below average winter since 2014-15. Obviously, the colder it is, the better chances of above average snowfall for Boston and along the coast including Cape Ann and Cape Cod.

Bitter cold temperatures is also one ingredient needed for a blockbuster storm (snowfall greater than 18″) or a blizzard. If the parameters line up correctly, I do believe that we have the chance of a blizzard this winter, Best chance for this would be in January.

In summation, I’m expecting a similar winter to last year across the mountains of New England. The difference is I believe the coast is going to trend colder this winter, with the return of nor’easters, resulting in a more harsh winter than last year for I95 folks.

I will be issue a brief final winter forecast update sometime around the winter solstice. I have done this in recent years solely for the fact that some new information will be out by then, and which may slightly alter the forecast. For now, this is my best educated guess as to what’s going to happen!

Now for your ski and snowboard forecast. It was quite a storm in the mountains yesterday! I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Not bad for Thanksgiving week!

Many resorts above 2000 ft received between 4 and 8″ of snow, with some higher mountains measuring one foot. Though it may briefly warm up tomorrow and Wednesday, a storm will cut across northern New England on Wednesday bringing rain turning to snow for the northern resorts later in the day. It will then turn very windy and colder on Thanksgiving Day. Another storm may threaten the area on Sunday with more accumulating snow.

Now for your Thanksgiving week travel and outdoor planner forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Today was a beautiful November day, with plenty of sunshine, and temperatures near 50. I hope you enjoyed it.

Overnight, expect dry conditions, with lows falling mainly into the 30’s.

Another beauty is on tap for tomorrow, with a mixture of sun and clouds. If we get enough sun, temperatures may make a run at 60! Who knows the next time we will see that reading?

No travel worries tomorrow night, as temperatures will fall into the 30’s and low 40’s.

A storm system will be approaching the area on Wednesday. After a dry start, expect rain to overspread the area from west to east. Unfortunately, it looks wet for your evening travel plans. At least the snow and icy conditions will be confined for northern New England.

Watch for the storm to pull out of the region Wednesday evening. However, rather than it moving north above our latitude, it may track east of us, and rapidly intensify. This would continue to place us on the western flank of its circulation.

This would result in a very windy and chilly day for us on Thanksgiving Day. I believe it will be mainly dry, but with considerable cloudiness, which does include some splashes of sun. Temperatures may start out on the 40’s, but slowly trend down during the day.

It should be dry and colder Thanksgiving night, with lows in the 20’s.

Black Friday & Saturday should be mainly sunny and on the cold side, with highs only near 40.

I then turn my attention to the end of the forecast period. This would be for Sunday, December 1st. Computer models are showing a fairly robust storm approaching from the southwest. At the same time, the Greenland block will be forming to our north. Current projections show this storm trying to move west of New England, but is forced to redevelop south of New England. Computer models then show this storm intensifying south of Cape Cod Sunday night into Monday.

If there is enough cold air around, this could be our first winter storm threat of the season. At the very least, the interior could get whacked with an early season snowstorm. I will monitor this through the week and update you if warranted.

Well, that’s about it for now. I hope you enjoyed reading my winter outlook! I know it can get very technical, but I try to minimize it or explain it so many can understand!

In next week’s blog, I will have your December preview, and review November. I may also elaborate a bit on our winter patterns. Look for a new ski and snowboard forecast as well, as we welcome meteorological winter! In the meantime, try to put aside the hassles that come with winter, and remember why we love living here in New England!

~Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!~

Thanks for reading,

Pete

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Typical November Weather…11/18/19

Hello, my friends. I hope everyone had a pleasant, weekend. Overall, I would say it was a weekend more suited for playing Christmas music, and pulling out the decorations. Yes, it not only felt like December on Saturday, but in many communities, it actually looked like December, yesterday.

Cold winds blew across the relatively warm ocean waters yesterday. This resulted in occasional snow showers moving from east to west across much of eastern Massachusetts, including the Greater Boston area.

Most just melted when hitting the ground. However, out at my sisters house in metro west, the snow actually whitened the ground, creating a festive feel during the late afternoon, early evening.

I apologize for not posting a blog the last two weeks. Perhaps some friends did know, but my mother passed away a week ago today, on November 11th.

Over the past week, I am extremely grateful for the support I have received from friends and family as our family continues to grieve with the loss of our mother. Your messages of sympathy and kind words did not go unnoticed, and will never be forgotten. Thank you.

So, how is our winter forecast shaping up? Hard to believe my forecast will be on line to see just one week from today! Because of the events that have transpired over the past several weeks, my research for this upcoming winter is running behind.

With that being said, I should have enough information gathered to give my best estimate as to what I think Mother Nature is going to throw at us this year.

I can say this. Last year, I relied too much on seasonal forecast computer models to dictate my thinking as to what I thought was going to happen.

This year, I plan on going back to using my natural signs in conjunction with computer models to come up with my best educated estimate as to what I think is going to happen.

Not to get into too many details, but I can tell you this. It’s looking like a colder and snowier winter for the coast and I95 locations compared to last winter. It’s not a slam dunk, as last year was a good example showing how a slight shift in the pattern, can greatly alter the final outcome.

However from what I have seen, there are some good signs pointing towards snowier and colder than normal winter in Boston this year. I will explain why I believe this in my winter outlook one week from today.

As has been my policy over the past couple years, I will be releasing two outlooks. One is the tradional the Monday before Thanksgiving. The other is the final outlook written around the time of the winter solstice.

I do this simply because true winter patterns can be very difficult to perceive during autumn. Often times, winter will not show its cards until after the solstice arrives. Therefore, I reserve the right to make some final adjustments to the forecast for the balance of the winter leading up to spring.

Stay tuned…it should be very interesting!

Now for your first ski & snow boarding forecast of the season! With the cold weather of November, ski resorts have been able to make snow and open up before Thanksgiving for the second year in a row!

Granted, it has not been as snowy as last November. However, it has been a cold November. Cold enough for many resorts to be able to make tons of snow. With the continuation of cold temperatures, I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Not bad for so early in the season!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Watch for gloomy conditions for the rest of your Monday. Expect damp & cold conditions, with periods of rain and drizzle, especially along the coast. Temperatures will not warm up much, with highs mainly between 38 and 45 degrees.

As was the case last night, sneaky low level cold air could result in some areas of freezing drizzle overnight, with low temperatures hovering near freezing.

A follow up energetic bundle of energy will track through New England later tonight and first part of tomorrow. If your travels take you north and west of I495, enough cold air may work into the region to change the rain to a period of snow. It’s not out of the question that some areas see a quick 1 to 2″ of snowfall.

This could result in slippery roads for a time, especially across higher elevations. I am not expecting any snow across eastern Massachusetts tomorrow.

Wednesday could feature more unsettled weather. Another energetic bundle of energy could quickly intensify and back into eastern Massachusetts. If the moisture makes it back to Boston, it’s not out of the question that we see some snow showers during the day, with a brisk north wind. Temperatures may struggle to reach 40, making for a raw feel to the air.

While Thursday may feature a lot of cloudiness, there will be less wind, and temperatures should respond back close to 50 degrees.

Right now, I am picking Friday to be the pick of the week. Though not totally sunny, temperatures should warm up into the mid 50’s across the Boston area.

Don’t get used to it! Much like this past Saturday, another cold front will come charging through New England, plunging temperatures back into the 30’s with a biting wind.

At this point, the weather for Sunday is still very much a question mark. It could be simply sunny and chilly, with highs near 40.

However, there will be a storm tracking south of New England across the mid Atlantic region. If the steering currents slightly turn, it’s possible some of that moisture could track up the coast into southern New England overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. With enough cold it’s not out of the question that there could be some wintery precipitation involved. Stay tuned for updates.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be releasing my 2019-20 winter forecast! I will also have your all important Thanksgiving week travel forecast! In the meantime, try to enjoy our typical November weather, the winds of winter will be upon us soon.

Thanks for reading & your understanding.

Pete

Windy, Wet & Warm Halloween! 10/28/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a glorious Saturday, with plenty of sunshine, and seasonable temperatures. Wow! What a day to go for a fall foliage drive, take a hike, or even take a walk on the beach!

Things changed, Sunday. Unfortunately. My timing was off when I made my forecast last Monday. The plan was for the storm to move in Sunday night, leaving us with a fairly decent , Sunday.

The reality was that the storm moved in much faster, with rain overspreading the region during the morning. This resulted in a washout yesterday, with heavy rain and chilly temperatures!

At first glance, it looked as though the Storm would track west of New England, with the warm sector punching north into Boston.

This is what indeed happened, but because we are in a negative NAO, or Greenland blocking pattern, this storm actually slowed down, and redeveloped south of New England.

Therefore, instead of temperatures warming up through the 50’s with southeast winds, temperatures struggled to reach 50, with strong easterly winds backing into the northeast later in the day. This is what happens when storms track south of New England in patterns like this.

Had this been wintertime, some forecasters may of been surprised by the Subtle last second shift. It could of made the difference between snow changing to rain vs, snow mixing with sleet and rain then changing back to snow, as cold air gets locked in along the coast.

Not too many people would notice these differences this time of the year, but definitely something to monitor closely as we move into the winter season. Sometimes patterns like to repeat themselves from autumn.

Speaking of autumn, we are suddenly now entering the last stages of the fall foliage season! From all the reports I have read, this has turned out to be a stellar season!

It appears that most locations in New England received just enough rain this summer with temperatures just cool enough to bring out the brightest colors in the leaves this year.

In addition, it now appears as if peak conditions are moving into the city of Boston right on schedule! As I have mentioned before, peak foliage in Boston typically arrives during the last week of October, peaking out right around Halloween.

Taking a drive around my neighborhood, this looks like a good assessment. The reds and yellows look to be vibrant this year! I love the fact that we have many sugar red maple trees lining the streets of my hometown of West Roxbury!

These trees are only now beginning to turn. Expect brillliant red color towards the end of this week, lasting trough the first week of November.

Unfortunately, the weather for peak viewing is not really going to cooperate! There is going to be a significant wind storm later on this week, stripping many of the beautiful leaves off the trees!

Due to time constraints, I do not have time to discuss my preliminary winter thoughts in detail this evening. I am only now returning to finish writing my blog late at night. Instead, I will need to go right to the forecast.

I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Lots of clouds, fog, drizzle, and possible downpours on Halloween night and Friday morning this week. Come this weekend, you will know that true fall has arrived!

I apologize for the late post. As you already know, Monday was a cloudy, damp day with areas of fog and drizzle. It was also on the chilly side, with highs only in the 50’s. Similar weather will be seen overnight, with lows near 50.

Expect similar weather for the period Tuesday through Friday. However, you will notice it becoming increasingly warmer and more humid as each day passes. The warmest day will actually be on Halloween, when temperatures may flirt with 70!

Gone are the days of bundling up the kids with winter coats over the costumes! When I was a kid, there was always a chill to the air, as soon as the sun went down.

You could always see your breath, as you breathed through your mask. I’ll never forget the smell to the air, which was a mixture of fallen leaves, and the chill of winter.

Or, it may be all about timing? Just two days later on November 2nd, temperatures will be similar to what I remember them being when I was a kid.

Along with the warm air, it will also be incredibly muggy for this time of year, with dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s. To place it in perspective, Halloween this year will feel like we’re living in South Carolina, rather than Massachusetts! Yuck!

In addition, there will be periods of showers pretty much throughout the day. If we’re lucky, there may be some breaks between the rain during trick or treat time.

Nevertheless, watch for spooky conditions, with howling winds between 30 and 40 mph across the area.

Shout out to good friend on Twitter William Scherer, who is a Massachusetts native and a weather enthusiast now living in the beautiful state of Colorado! While we have an unusually warm Halloween, parts of Colorado, including Denver, will be digging out from over a foot of snow!

As a strong cold front approaches, a band of heavy rain will track across the region late Thursday night and into Friday morning. Expect drier conditions to sweep into the region later Friday under a brisk westerly wind.

This cold front will usher in the coldest airmass of the season, with high temperatures only near 50, and lows in the 20’s and 30’s. It could be the first time Boston drops below 40 degrees this autumn…a record for so late in the season.

The big question on my mind, is if this cold front is a genuine pattern change to a colder November, or will the warm air bounce back again for yet another warmer than average month? I will chat more about this in my next blog.

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next blog, I will be discussing in greater detail my preliminary winter outlook. I will also have a preview for November, and review October. In the meantime, be prepared for flying ghosts with umbrellas, Thursday night!

Have a safe and Happy Halloween!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Don’t forget to “fall back” this weekend. Turn those clocks back one hour Saturday night before bed!

Seasonable…Is Reasonable! 10/21/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! All in all, it was a pretty special weekend around here, weatherwise. Saturday was about as perfect of a fall day as you’ll ever see. After a frosty start for many, temperatures warmed up to near 60 in the afternoon, all under deep cobalt blue skies, and light winds.

Sunday was not too shabby either! Early morning sun faded behind increasing clouds during the afternoon. It was a bit milder, with temperatures climbing into the lower 60’s across much of the region.

If you were up north, you may of been treated to some snowliage scenery! The intense storm that blew through our region last Wednesday night brought damaging winds, power outages, and record low barometric pressure to locations such as Boston. Behind the storm, strong winds whipped in colder air to allow rain showers to turn to snow showers in elevations above 2,000 feet.

With the foliage still near peak in the valleys, this brought some beautiful pictures of snow capped mountain tops, contrasting with the beauty of fall colors in the valley.

Some locations that saw snow was Killington in Vermont, many of the White Mountains, including Mt. Washington in New Hampshire, and Sunday River in Maine. It won’t be long now until these locations fire up the snow making equipment, as they prepare for another season of fun outdoor winter activities!

Interesting to note, longtime New England meteorologist Tim Kelley brought up the point that Killington actually opened for the season on October 18th last year, due to the consistently cold weather. Not that this October has been so much above average, but on average, it has been a bit warmer in the mountains compared to last year.

This early opening was an indication of a very productive, long ski season in the mountains of New England last year, which featured cold temperatures and copious amaounts of snow!

Whie it rained heavily down here in southern New England last November, it was just cold enough up north for several heavy snowstorms! Wow, did they get off to a fast start last year!

While it’s a bit too early to determine exactly what kind of a winter the ski resorts are going to see, indications are pointing to possibly another repeat of last year…perhaps even a bit colder this time around! That could mean even more snow this year, than last!

Starting dates to not give any indication as to what kind of a winter they’re going to have. It’s more a marketing gimmick to get people to start thinking about skiing and making vacation plans! With that being said, early snowfalls certainly does not hurt the cause!

So far, this October has been going very much according to plan. Up to this point, October has averaged very close to what we would expect for October. Remember, it’s the extremes that make the averages. I consider anything within + or – one degree close to average.

Last week I mentioned the possibilities of a spell of Indian Summer. While temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 60’s for a couple days this week, calling it true Indian Summer may be a bit of a stretch. After all, this is only 5 to 10 degrees above normal, for only a couple days.

This is true especially along the immediate coast, where a first frost has not occurred as of yet. Across the interior, where they have seen multiple frosts, you could call it a taste of Indian Summer if you so please!

While temperatures have been close to average, precipitation has been slightly below the norm…even with the big storm that roared through here last Wednesday night.

Despite the intensity, the storm was moving so fast, that it only had a chance to drop between 1 and 3″ across the region.

This sounds like a lot, and it is a good drenching, but storms of this strength are capable of much higher precipitation totals.

Nevertheless, the storm delivered quite a punch! New England has seen similar type storms in each of the last 3 October’s.

By the way, there was some talk whether this storm was a nor’easter or not? As I mentioned in last weeks post, the track makes all the difference.

Because this storm tracked north from the southern New England coast, right over Boston, winds were more east southeast, rather than east northeast. Therefore, this storm was more what they call a “southeaster” or “sou’easter…I know, doesn’t have the same excitement to it!

Not only did the storm cause extensive damage along the coast, but it also came during peak foliage across much of central New England. High winds of between 70 and 90 MPH is like Kryptonite for our fall foliage…we don’t want them in mid October!

In what many were saying was the best foliage in years, the high winds stripped many of the leaves, essentially ending the foliage season up north (at least in higher elevations). Great color is still to be had in valley locations).

Even down here in southern New England, the high winds stripped many of the trees that had full color on them. And the ones that didn’t loose their leaves, the high winds and rain temporarily muted the colors, leaving a bland, brownish look to the leaves.

Now, because peak in Boston and along the coast is still about 2 weeks away, we still have time to recover, and possibly see a nice burst of color as peak moves through.

For this to happen, we must have mainly sunny days, and clear cool nights, with calm winds. A nice frost would also get the trees changing more quickly too!

Right now, the outlook is looking fairly good. We will see some rain this week, but nothing torrential. At this point, a frost is more important than anything else.

I do see a chance of frost in the city later next week. This means the brightest colors should move through the city sometime the first week of November….much like last year.

Years ago, peak foliage in Boston was always the last week of October, leading up to Halloween. I always remember a big gale blowing through right after Halloween, stripping off all the leaves from the trees.

It’s not your imagination, peak foliage has been pushed back in the city by a good two weeks compared to what it used to be. I attribute this change to years of abnormally warmer than normal ocean temperatures off our coast…among other things. I may elabotrate on these factors in a later post.

Well, we are now just about a month away from my official winter forecast for New England! Up to this point, I see no clear cut indication as to what kind of winter we are in for this year.

Actually, I have much more confidence across the interior of New England, and the mountains. Here, it looks colder, and above average snowfall looks to be a good bet again this year.

You may say, Pete, this sounds like a repeat of last year? Yes, in this area of New England it could be similar or even a bit worse!

The area I need more time to determine what kind of a winter this will be, is right along the I95 corridor. This is essentially along coastal New England, including the cities of Portsmouth, N.H., Boston and Providence, R.I.

At this early juncture, I can see this winter possibly slightly colder than last winter. In addition, I am seeing indications of a active storm track, similar to last winter, but closer to the coast. If true, this could result in more snow closer to I95 cities than last year?

In the coming weeks, I will elaborate in greater details on my thoughts in regards to our upcoming 2019-20 winter season. Stay tuned!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10!

Expect pleasant weather for the rest of your Monday. Watch for mainly sunny skies, and light winds. Temperatures will hold close to 60 near the coast with a northeast wind. If you live greater than 10 miles inland of the coast, you may reach the mid 60’s.

Look for fair and cool weather tonight, but milder than recent nights. Temperatures should fall into the 40’s across the suburbs, and 50’s in the city.

Expect increasing clouds tomorrow. A moist flow off the ocean will hold temperatures mainly in the upper 50’s. As a cold front moves into New England, look for showers to develop later in the afternoon, say after 4:00 PM.

A storm will develop along the front, and may enhance the rain tomorrow night. Many areas should see at least a half inch to one inch of rain.

As the storm moves north of us, it will continue to intensify. However, the airmass behind the storm is actually quite mild. Therefore, we can expect a warmer westerly wind for Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 60’s both days!

Friday should also feature above average temperatures, with highs in the mid 60’s. An approaching cold front will introduce the chance of showers, especially across the interior later Friday. These showers should move through the coastal plain Friday night.

At this point, the weekend is looking very fall like, with chilly daytime highs in the 50’s, and overnight lows mainly in the 20’s and 30’s across suburbia, to low 40’s in urban areas. Sunday will be chilly, with increasing clouds and rain moving in at night.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing my latest thoughts about this upcoming winter in greater detail. I will also have a new fall foliage report. In the meantime, enjoy the seasonable weather…come next month it may not be so reasonable!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Storm…Then Indian Summer? 10/14/19

Hello! Happy Columbus Day! I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday weekend! While Saturday began on the cold and damp side, the weather has been steadily improving since.

Yesterday, for instance, was a stellar early fall day, with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and temperatures a couple of degrees either side of 70! This was the perfect day to go out for a fall foliage trip, a hike in the mountains, or a stroll along the beach!

You may of wanted to call it Indian Summer. If that’s what you would like to of called it, by no means go right ahead and do that! I explained the specific definition of Indian Summer either in last weeks post or the one before.

I also mentioned how there are many different versions on how people perceive their own definition of what exactly is Indian Summer.

To refresh your memory, the true definition of Indian Summer is a period of warm, sunny weather with light winds, after you have received your first freeze of the season. To be technical, the period of warm weather should occur after all the leaves have fallen.

For many, this was not true Indian Summer by definition. But as I said, many communities across the interior of New England have received their first freeze of the season. If you live in one of these towns, you can officially call it Indian Summer.

Remember, a freeze is different than a frost. Ground temperature can be about 5 degrees colder than air temperature, on a clear calm night.

Because cold air is more dense, it settles to the ground. As the air settles, it allows frost to form right at the ground, while air temperature just five feet above the ground can be at 36 or 37 degrees.

A freeze is when the air temperature and ground temperature are both 32 degrees or lower for at least 3 hours.

Many inland communities received their first frost and freeze about 10 days ago. This was not the case if you live within 10 miles of the ocean.

The “average” date of the first frost in Boston’s neighborhoods inside of Rt 128 is between October 20th and 3oth.

Because Logan Airport is the official reading for the city, the official date is skewed. Since Logan Airport is literally on a peninsula, surrounded by water, the average date for this location to receive its first freeze is on November 7th.

Therefore, official Indian Summer does not visit the city, if we even have any, until sometime in November!

Looking over some long range data this morning, it appears as if we will be beginning a pattern which features lots of ups and downs for the rest of October.

After a storm blows through Wednesday night, blustery chilly winds will usher in another threat of frost across much of the interior come Friday night.

Thereafter, another warming trend may commence sending temperatures back up into the 70’s for a few days from Sunday through Tuesday. This could be classified as Indian Summer for a good part of New England, except the coast.

Yet another storm will roll through our region next week, followed by an even colder shot of air, which may bring frost even closer to the coast.

There may be another brief warm up before what looks like to be the coldest air of the season arriving sometime during Halloween week.

This could be a the start of a major pattern change which could bring not only our first freeze to Boston, but possibly even some wintry weather to start out November!

Speaking of winter, I have been diligently gathering information for my winter forecast, which will be on line come November 25th.

Before then, I like to present some of my preliminary thoughts to everyone, over the course of the next several weeks.

This is a rapidly changing situation, and my ideas may flip flop several times before I get a handle on the situation.

Last week was looking more like a benign, mild winter on the computer models.

Looking over some of the latest long range computer models, this outlook is changing. While they’re not all showing a cold & snowy winter, the changes would lead me to believe that a very active winter may be on the way, with above normal amounts of precipitation.

The million dollar question now, is how much cold air will be available to coincide with this moisture to produce frozen precipitation?

You may say, Pete, it sounds just like last winter! I would reply back to you, that indeed it does! If you recall, last winter was a very active winter here in New England.

The problem was the majority of the storms, is that they turned to rain or mixed with sleet and freezing rain along the coastal plain. This kept accumulations way down along the coast last winter.

Where it was cold enough in the hills and mountains, well above normal snows fell, and was a skiers bonanza!

There are some indications telling me that there could be a slight shift to the pattern this winter, bringing more snow for folks living along the coast this winter (inside of I95).

I will get into more of these details over the coming weeks, as I continue to gather all my information. If you recall, I not only rely on computer data, technical discussions, but I also focus on many natural signs to help me calculate my forecast.

Now for your fall foliage report. I am very pleased that this foliage season has peaked at just the precise moment. I’m also very encouraged by the reports and pictures from professionals and leaf peepers that the color has just exploded over the past week!

The combination of just enough rain, chilly nights with a touch of frost, little if any leaf disease, seems to have brought out the best of autumn colors in much of northern New England, not seen in years.

Today would be the perfect day to head out for a drive just an hour outside of Boston. From what I’m hearing, it doesn’t matter if its north, west, southwest, or even south of the city, the color is coming on strong, and is peaking in many areas, just about the traditional time of Columbus Day weekend.

Even where I live here in West Roxbury, many of the trees are beginning to change. Some with vivid oranges and reds, seemingly changing overnight!

If this trend continues, I believe peak color will begin arriving in the city during the last week of October, peaking around Halloween, then lingering into the first week of November. Enjoy!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, heavily weighted for this weekend.

Expect lots of clouds for the rest of this afternoon, but some intervals of sun is to be expected too. It will be mild, with highs mainly in the mid to perhaps upper 60’s.

With departing clouds this evening, be on the lookout for another stunning sunset! Expect clearing skies overnight, with temperatures falling into the 40’s and 50’s.

Tuesday should feature plenty of sun, along with light winds. It will be slightly cooler than today, but I bet you’d hardly notice it.

Expect generally fair weather to continue into tomorrow night along with slightly chillier temperatures. Lows may make it down into the 30’s and 40’s in rural areas, but remain near 50 in most urban areas.

Wednesday may start off with some sun, but watch for clouds to rapidly thicken up by noontime. This is the leading edge of strong storm that will be arriving during the late afternoon hours.

A primary area of low pressure will be tracking across western New York, and up into the St. Lawrence River Valley. If this was the only storm, it would be just a line of showers moving through.

However, much like a winter time scenario, this storm is going to spawn a second storm, or a “secondary” area of low pressure as they call it, off the mid-Atlantic coast.

This low pressure is forecasted to rapidly intensify, as it tracks over Cape Cod into the Gulf of Maine on Thursday. While we do not have to worry about snow, I am concerned about a period of high winds, and heavy rainfall.

Computer models have been erratic in the track, shifting these concerns from central Mass. to eastern Mass. to Cape Cod.

Right now, the area of heaviest weather could focus itself on eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. In these locations, I’m expecting between 1 and 3″ of rain to occur, with winds between 30 and 40 MPH along east coast Massachusetts, with gusts up to 50 MPH not out of the question.

Winds could gust as high as 60 MPH down on the Cape. With leaves on the trees, this could result in some tree damage and power outages.

Expect a stormy Wednesday night, with strong winds, and soaking rains! Depending on the track of the storm, winds could either be out of the southeast, east, or even northeast. A closer track to the coast would mean easterly gales, shifting to southeast.

A track further off the coast would mean easterly gales, shifting to northeast. This is the direction I’m currently leaning towards. Either way, I’m expecting winds to average between 30 and 50 MPH, with some gusts up to 60 MPH down on the Cape.

By the way, because this is a winter like storm, and we are in the middle of October, it’s not out of the question that higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, flip over to heavy wet snow for a time Thursday morning. Great opportunity for some amazing snowliage pictures!

As the storm passes beyond our latitude, watch for winds to shift to the west during Thursday morning. Early wind driven rain will slowly taper to showers then end from southwest to northeast by noontime. Westerly winds will be gusty all day, and temperatures will be hard pressed to get out of the 50’s. Of course it will feel colder with those gusty winds.

Expect another blustery day on Friday, however expect winds to slowly begin to diminish during the afternoon. Highs may be close to 60.

After a chilly Friday night with more suburban frost, expect more tranquil conditions for Saturday. With sunshine and light winds, temperatures will be milder during the afternoon, with highs reaching the mid 60’s.

Expect even nicer weather on Sunday, as we begin a three day period through Tuesday of “Indian Summer” with each day featuring sunny skies, and temperatures in the 70’s across much of our area. Another storm may threaten sometime next Wednesday.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to offer my latest thoughts on my preliminary winter outlook. I will also have a new fall foliage report, as peak conditions are only now beginning to arrive here in southern New England.

In the meantime, official Indian Summer or not, enjoy it while you can…the cold winds of winter are not far behind!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

GLOOMY…for a change! 10/7/19

Hello! I hope everyone was able to enjoy their weekend! Overall, it was very much on the fallish side. Gusty winds ushered in cooler weather on Friday, as temperatures fell through the 50’s.

After a frosty start, Saturday turned out being a perfect fall day around here, with temperatures reaching the low 60’s, with light winds. It was a beautiful day for a fall foliage trip, go apple picking, or take a hike on your favorite trail!

With light winds, conditions were ideal for radiation cooling Saturday night. Therefore, temperatures quickly fell to frosty levels in many suburbs surrounding Boston. Even locations down on Cape Cod quickly fell into the 30’s! This can occur when winds are calm.

Due to urban heat island effect, no frost was reported inside of Rt 128 in the city of Boston.

On average, the frost was a bit earlier than average for Boston’s suburbs. As mentioned last week, these communities typically experience their first frost between October 10th and 20th. Also of note, this was not a widespread frost event. However, I would classify it as more than scattered, but not every town received a frost.

There is a difference between first frost, and first freeze. A frost is when the air becomes super cooled very close to the ground, enough for condensation and water droplets to freeze into frost. Remember, the air temperature is typically taken 5 ft off the ground, and the temperature at ground level can be up to 6 or 7 degrees colder.

A freeze is when the air temperature and ground temperature fall to 32 degrees or lower for 3 hours or more. This can happen in scattered locations in southern New England early in October, but many have to wait until the second half of the month to receive a real freeze.

This may not occur here in Boston until the first week of November. Many look for the first freeze to essentially end the growing season, but more importantly, kill off the mosquito’s for the season. Mosquito’s are a disease carrying insect, harboring the EEE virus, keeping folks from enjoying the outdoors, fearing a deadly bite.

As the nights grow longer, the chance of temperatures falling to 32 degrees or lower increase significantly after October 10th.

After today’s warm surge, many suburban communities will once again experieance frosty conditions over the next couple nights. Right now, a real cold shot may wait until around the week of the 20th…but even that’s questionable.

Well, it was a glorious summer, but all good things must come to an end. After last Wednesday’s warm start, temperatures suddenly dropped, as the cold front sliced through the area, shifting winds into the northeast, essentially ending summer for the Boston area. Since then, temperatures have been mainly in the 50’s and 60’s during the day, and 30’s and 40’s at night.

Overall, it was yet another warmer than normal summer here in Boston. I believe WBZ meteorologist Eric Fisher said the last 10 out of 12 summers has featured above average temperatures here in Boston. That’s quite a run!

As has been the case for several years now, it began slow in May and June, with near to below average temperatures. Things flipped on a dime in July, when Boston recorded it’s hottest month on record. Wow!

Things have remained warm since, with September actually being a warmer month on average, than August this year.

Precipitation started off wet, but dwindled as the season progressed. Many communities in the Boston area is now under “abnormally dry” conditions advisory.

The one bright spot is that I was very pleased with my summer forecast for the Boston region this year! My target for 90 degree days was for between 10 and 14. The one last 90 degree temperature on the first day of autumn ticked it to 15 for the season…otherwise, it would of been on point!

I was going to discuss some early thoughts regarding our upcoming winter season. To be honest, some of the long range computer data that I’m looking at this morning has me completely rattled! I am in no shape or form to give any kind of a preliminary outlook today.

As has been the case for several years now, no computer model can be trusted for long range seasonal guidance anymore. What you see one day, can completely flip flop it’s idea the very next run.

I will say this, for those who like a cold and snowy winter, the trends are not looking to be in your favor. The continuation of above normal temperatures for the east coast is looking to re-establish itself the second half of October, much of November, and possibly even through the rest of the year.

It’s still early, and things can and most likely will change. My official forecast does not get released until November 25th this year. When confidence increases, I will undoubtedly post a preliminary outlook before the end of this month.

Now for your weekly fall foliage report. Peak fall colors continue to slowly spread south from the north country. From honest reports that I have seen, color has been good this year. Not great, but solid enough for a 7 out of 10 rating.

The problem is there are pockets of vivid color, mixed with areas of muted colors. In addition, peak colors are in some lower latitude locations, while not in others at higher latitude.

Overall, you would not be disappointed in taking a foliage trip this weekend up north! You won’t need to go too far to run into peak conditions about 2 hours north of Boston. Locations just south of the White Mountain region of New Hampshire should offer some patches of beautiful color in some of the country back roads, and valley floors.

As has been typically the case in recent years, foliage is slow to turn along coastal locations. The warm temperatures in September are now taking its toll. At this rate, peak colors will not arrive in Boston until the first week in November.

If we continue to see chilly night time temperatures, color should be quite vivid as it moves through the city. Something similar to last year.

I will closely monitor the changing conditions as we move deeper into the season. All is not lost yet, it’s still early for most of us here in southern New England. The right temperatures could and most likely will bring out some stunning colors as we head towards Halloween and beyond here along the coast.

Now for your outdoor camping and hiking forecast. Look for lots of clouds this week, along with rainy weather later today and into tonight. Thereafter, conditions should improve for most of the rest of the week with seasonable tempeartures, and dry conditions. This is if you’re camping up north. Southern New England runs the risk of brisk winds, and damp conditions at times.

Time for our weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will give this week a 5 out of 10. As mentioned in my title, expect a bit of a gloomy week ahead. What’s to complain? It’s been quite a run of nice weather!

Expect clouds to increase for the rest of this afternoon. With a gusty southwest wind, temperatures will warm up all the way close to 80! Get out and try to enjoy, it could be our last 80 degree reading of the season!

A cold front will be crossing New England tonight. Ahead of it, there will be some showers crossing the region. It will begin to turn cooler, with lows falling into the 50’s.

Tuesday’s will be cooler, along with a northeast wind, clouds will be difficult to erode. Temperatures may be stuck in the upper 50’s and low 60’s.

A slow moving storm will be meandering south of New England for the better part of this week. With high pressure anchored to our north, this is a set up that will bring a persistant flow off of the ocean, along with bands of rain, gusty winds, drizzle and fog.

What you can expect is periods of damp and chilly weather for the period Wednesday through Friday. With the clouds and occasional rainy weather, temperatures will only be in the 50’s during the day, and 40’s at night.

This storm needs to be monitored. If the storm tracks closer to the coast, persistant strong onshore winds could result in some minor to even moderate coastal flooding.

If the Storm tracks further offshore, winds and rain will be less than anticipated. One computer model is calling for this scenario, with showers lingering into Saturday, then clearing out for Sunday.

However, another computer model stalls the storm, and continues the windy, rainy weather through Sunday. Check in with local forecasts for updates on the evolution of this storm system.

The long range outlook for Columbus Day calls for fair and seasonable weather. A great day for fall foliage viewing! Hope that works out!

By the way, as mentioned above, the weather in northern New England will be much different than here in southern New England this week. After heavy rain today, much of the rest of the week should be dry and on the chilly side.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I hope to have some further insight for you regarding my preliminary winter forecast. I will also have your new fall foliage report camping & hiking forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the warm weather of today, the feel of fall will return come tomorrow!

Thanks for reading!

Happy Birthday to my sister, Val!

A September To Remember! 9/30/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! While 4 ft of snow was falling out in Montana, it was a glorious last weekend for summer for us around here! Saturday featured tons of sun, and was on the warm side, with highs in lower 80’s.

Sunday was about 10 degrees cooler, but also came with an abundance of sunshine. It was a spectacular first weekend of fall for a fall foliage trip, apple picking, a hike, or heading to the beach one last time!

Yes, I may have used this title in a previous year! Can we agree, speaking in terms of our weather, that this has been a September to remember? There are not enough superlatives to describe the weather of this September.

September typically features our best weather, here in New England. This year did not disappoint! Some highlights for September 2019 was that it was a warm month, averaging nearly 3 degrees above normal.

The hottest day of the month actually occurred a week ago today, on the first day of autumn, when it reached a scorching 92 degrees in Boston!

Warmer than normal September’s have been the trend over the past 10 to 15 years.

It was also a drier than normal month, with Boston receiving nearly an inch below what we normally receive.

Because it was dryer and warmer than normal, this meant that we received an abundance amount of sunshine. What makes September so pleasant is that we get to enjoy warm weather, many times without the oppressive humidity of summer! What’s not to like?!

As an added bonus, if you have a summer cottage or house, most people leave by Labor Day, leaving behind the serene natural beauty of New England!

Placing all these factors together, I declare September 2019 as the best month of weather we have seen here in New England over the past 5 years or so! Nearly every day was sunny and warm, with very little rainfall, and hardly any muggy days to speak of.

My advice to you would be to remember the many beautiful days we had this September, and relive them when we’re in the depths of a January blizzard!

Despite the warmer than normal temperatures, you can not stop the change of seasons! Along with the spectacular weather, the leaves have begun to change!

This leads us into phase two of autumn in New England. While September may feature the best weather, October is the month for vibrant color!

October is a true autumn month here in New England! While the leaves begin changing color nearly everywhere in the region, “peak” colors begin their decent south from the far reaches of northern New England! I will have my official fall foliage forecast shortly!

October is also the month when we really begin to feel the changing seasons here in New England. Temperatures steadily cool from highs in the upper 60’s to start the month, down to the upper 50’s by Halloween. Low temperatures also become chilly, starting off in the mid 50’s, and dropping down into the lower 40’s by months end.

Keep in mind, these numbers are for the city of Boston. Rural & suburban areas are often colder, especially night time low temperatures.

As temperatures cool, October is also the month many communities experience their first frost and freeze. Many areas up north, away from the ocean have already seen their first frost.

As a general guide, average first frosts here in southern New England begin to arrive between October 1st and 10th. This is for locations west of I495, especially in western Massachusetts.

This area shifts east between October 10th and the 20th for locations between Rt 128 and I495.

As we get deeper into the month, after October 20th, frost typically occurs along the north and south shore communities of Boston, interior southeastern Massachusetts, and even in communities inside of Rt 128, set back a few miles away from the water.

Boston’s official observatory station is at Logan Intgernational Airport, which is literally a penninsula sticking out into the Atlantic Ocean.

Here, the climate is more temperate than areas just 5 miles inland. Therefore, it takes all the way until November 7th for Boston to officially register its first freeze.

Keep in mind, these are all “averages”. In any given year, these dates may swing wildly from one end of the spectrum, to the other. For instance, suburban areas around Boston has seen frost as early mid September, and as late as mid November!

Along with the colder temperatures, October is also the start of the snow season! This does not mean it snows every year in October. It just means the atmosphere becomes cold enough in certain events to support frozen precipitation.

It’s not uncommon for northern New England, especially higher elevations to receive their first accumulation of snow of the season.

Down here in southern New England, especially along the coastal plain, it’s rare, but not unprecedented to witness snowflakes during October. In rare instances, there may even be some accumulation.

The ironic thing is, when when coastal communities see accumulating snow during October, the winter typically is a dud! The weather community calls it the October snow curse!

What can we expect for this October? After a very warm September, I’m expecting temperatures to settle back a bit this month. What this means is that I’m expecting a near normal month on the way. Of course, as I always say, it’s the extremes that make the averages.

Therefore, we can expect some unusually high temperatures, as well as some fairly cold weather as well at times. This should be sufficient to bring frosts and freezes to many communities this month, at normal dates mentioned above.

After a very dry September, more frequent precipitation events will bring precipitation near average for the month, which is close to 4″ in Boston. I’m not expecting any snow, but if the cold and moisture meet up at the exact time…anything is possible!

Now time for our fall foliage report! From the reports I have been reading, fall foliage is nearing peak colors in areas where you would expect it to for the end of September. Vivid colors have been reported in the northern regions of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

There have also been reports of very bright colors in the southern mountainous regions of Vermont, White Mountains of New Hampshire, and interior Maine.

It appears we have seen just enough cool nights this September to keep the foliage right about on schedule. This means peak colors will be heading south as each week passes during October. Expect peak foliage this weekend in the White Mountain region of New Hampshire, western Maine, and central Vermont.

Thereafter, expect it to spread into southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and even the Berkshires in western Massachusetts.

With the colder nights arriving next weekend, watch for trees to begin changing in earnest north and west and even southwest of Boston between October 10th and 20th.

If you don’t have time or transportation to drive to see the foliage, just be patient, Mother Nature will bring it right to your backyard! I’m expecting peak foliage in Boston to arrive the first week of November, starting right around Halloween.

The beauty about foliage here along the coast, is that it lasts longer than interior parts of New England. The ocean air modifies the climate, not allowing the leaves to change too quickly. Therefore, we get to see some leaves put on a show for a solid month, before they finally fade sometime in early November!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I’m rating this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect beautiful autumn weather for the remainder of your Monday. Watch for deep blue skies, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the 60’s.

Tonight will feature increasing clouds, and not as chilly as last night, lows will mainly be in the 50’s.

After a murky start with some fog and perhaps a few showers, Tuesday will be a bit warmer, along with more clouds around than today. With a southwest wind, look for temperatures to warm up at least into the upper 70’s.

Tuesday night should be rain free, but there may be some areas of dense fog around. It will be on the mild side, with lows mainly in the 50’s and low 60’s.

After low clouds and fog burn off Wednesday, temperatures may quickly warm into the lower to the lower 80’s from the Mass Pike points south! Enjoy it, this could be the last summery day we see until next spring!

A cold front will be slicing through New England during the day. To the north of this front, temperatures will be dramatically cooler than to the south. As this cold front passes through Boston, winds will turn northeast, and temperatures will begin to plummet even here in Boston during the afternoon, essentially ending summer 2019.

As the cold front settles south of Boston, an area of low pressure will travel along the front, and pass south of New England. Therefore, expect a rather dramatic change in the weather later Wednesday night and into Thursday, with rain overspreading the region.

At this point, it looks like Thursday will feature periods of rain, northeast winds, and temperatures which may struggle to get out of the 40’s!

This damp and chilly weather may continue Thursday night and Friday morning before we begin to see conditions improve later Friday. Temperatures will remain chilly, with highs only in the 50’s.

Right now, the weekend is looking like a classic New England fall weekend! Expect sunny weather and cool weather Saturday, with highs remaining in the 50’s.

Watch for clear and chilly weather Saturday night. It may be the first night many furnaces click on for the first time this season. There’s also the potential for some suburban frost, with widespread 30’s in the suburbs. We should not see frost in the city, but it will still be chilly!

Expect similar weather on Sunday, perhaps a few degrees warmer, with highs reaching the very low 60’s. Watch those leaves begin to change!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing what some of my thoughts are for our upcoming winter season! I will also have your fall foliage report, and a new hiking and camping forecast. In the meantime, it’s not all bad…there’s always the chance of Indian Summer!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy Birthday to my niece, Olivia!

Summer Crashes Fall’s Party! 9/23/19

Hello! Happy first day of autumn! Yes, the autumnal equinox arrived while we were sleeping at 3:50 eastern standard time early this morning! The weather today will be anything but autumn like, with high temperatures flirting with 90 here in Boston, along with high humidity to boot! I will get into all the details with my forecast, shortly.

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a very fitting ending for the final weekend of summer. Saturday was warm, with high temperatures in the lower 80’s. Sunday was borderline hot, with high temperatures close to 90 degrees in Boston. Both days featured abundant sunshine, and low humidity.

So here we are, the first day of autumn. You would think we’ve had enough summer, and that it’s time for the cooler weather to be kicking in, right? Well, that’s my sentiments, but Mother Nature obviously has a different agenda!

Many friends and family members are asking me just what the heck is going on here? What’s going on with these weather patterns? Is it really climate change happening right before our eyes?

These are all very complicated questions to answer. Proponents for global warming are all over these warm records being broken, seemingly on a monthly basis now.

Folks against it say these warm spells have occurred in past centuries, and were even warmer than today’s standards. They believe the earth warms and cools with natural cycles, largely dependent upon ocean temperatures.

I think at this point, we can all agree we are living in a warmer climate than in the past. Even as little as 40 years ago, temperatures were colder. This may sound like a long time, but in climate studies, it’s only a matter of seconds, if that.

I understand many of my readers are not complaining too much about the warmer regime! While some enjoy a good winter storm or two, most could do without the bitterly cold weather we experience during winter.

But there are others, such as myself, who cherish the winter season. I do love all the seasons here in New England, but enjoy winter the most. I’m not sure exactly why, but I’m sure it has something to do with the excitement that nor’easters and winter storms bring!

So when it’s 90 degrees on the first day of autumn, with high humidity, I feel torn by the thought that there really might be something to these global warming reports.

Think of it like a mother protecting its baby. If something threatens her, she will attack back, to keep her child safe. The same goes when I hear people say that winters are growing shorter here in New England, and that one day, it may be too warm for it to snow in places like Boston.

I have to fight back with my knowledge as to why I think this is mostly a natural cycle, and that the cold and storms will return as the cycle shifts back someday.

In the meantime, just because it’s 90 degrees on the first day of fall, does not mean the seasons are not going to change. For now, I believe we are in a natural seasonal shift. We all know about the warmer autumn’s we’ve been experiencing. But how quickly we forget when winter extends deep into our springs, as in recent years?

But why is this happening? For now, let’s just stick to the abnormally warm ocean temperatures, specifically in the North Pacific Ocean. Why the oceans are so warm, is not fully understood. Of course there’s the question of high levels of CO2 observed in our atmosphere.

In my opinion, there’s more substantial evidence that the ocean temperatures play a more significant role in our temperatures than CO2 levels, at this time. Just my opinion. Many would disagree with this statement.

So with the ocean temperatures so much above average, this brings a process called latent heating and cooling to the forefront.

Even when ocean temperatures are at normal levels, it takes longer for the oceans to cool off in the fall, and warm up in the spring. Now that temperatures are so much above average, this has exasperated the delay, taking a toll on the climate we used to know.

Therefore, seasons are delayed in their arrival, especially here in New England, mainly due to the fact that the Atlantic occupies so much space around our region.

It’s become so bad, that I believe the seasons have actually shifted! In my opinion, the seasonal structure goes something like this: Fall is now November and December. Winter is January through April. Spring is May and June. And summer is July through October. Make any sense?

Looking at the latest long range computer guidance, it actually backs up my theory. From what I see at this point, it looks like the Boston area is in store for another warmer than average fall this year. I’m very confident of above average temperatures for the rest of September, and most likely the majority of October, as well. Possibly well above average.

The way I see things right now, if the unusually warm weather continues through November, so will go the rest of the winter.

However, if there’s a pattern change sometime in late October, or early November to colder temperatures, the winter could turn out a lot colder and stormier than I’m currently anticipating. More details to follow!

We are dry now, and will continue to be dry heading into October. This is in stark contrast to the one of the wettest falls on record last year. If this dry weather persists, water restrictions and drought advisories will be announced soon.

Other than a few showers overnight, I do not anticipate much rain for the rest of September. At least the first 10 days of October are looking dry as well. While precipitation events may pick up later in October and November, it looks like the season will end up below average across much of the region.

As promised last week, today is my first fall foliage report! Splashes of color have begun to show up down here in southern New England! With the warm weather, it’s very difficult to predict how the foliage season is going to evolve. Add to that, the recent dry weather increases the difficulty in determining the quality of the colors.

From reports I have heard, the leaves are beginning to turn quickly in the northern parts of New England, including northern parts of Maine, New Hampshire and the northeast Kingdom of Vermont. These areas will actually be approaching peak foliage the first week of October!

Due to the persistant warm weather, I will be combining the beach & boating forecast, along with the fall outdoor activity outlook.

I will be rating this week a 10 out of 10! Expect unseasonably hot weather today in Boston. I have seen we already hit 91 degrees today. Wow! This makes the 15th day we have reached 90 this summer in Boston. There will be a mixture of sun and clouds the rest of this afternoon and evening, under warm conditions. Colorful sunset?

A cool front will sweep through New England overnight. Most communities should see a a period of showers move through. However, some computer models show the rain drying up before reaching the Boston area. Nevertheless, expect at least some rain overnight, perhaps even the rumble of thunder. If you do not receive rain tonight, we will not see any rain for at least another week.

For the period of Tuesday through the upcoming weekend, watch for generally fair and dry weather. Best beach and boating weather will be Wednesday, then again Friday and Saturday, possibly Sunday too.

Temperatures will oscillate between the 70’s and 80’s each day, with overnight lows mainly in the 50’s. Just an amazing stretch of early fall weather!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a more detailed fall foliage report. I will also have a review of September, and my latest outlook for October. In the meantime, sometimes even uninvited guests can be the hit of the party!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Quick Fall Nip…Then Take A Dip? 9/16/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! As mentioned last week, a period of showers was expected to move through at some point during the weekend.

As it turned out, these showers moved through Saturday afternoon. These were not heavy showers, nor did they last long. But the timing briefly disrupted many outdoor activities, in an otherwise, dry weather pattern.

After the showers cleared, Sunday easily turned into a top ten weather day across much of New England. Wow…was it a beautiful day, or what?

Most of the day featured deep blue skies, light winds, warm temperatures, and lowering dew point temperatures. It was a splendid day for a walk in the park, a hike, or a late season trip to the beach!

I don’t say September features our best weather of the year here in New England for no reason! In reality, two thirds of September is still officially summer! This means we still get to enjoy warm summer like temperatures, without the intense heat of mid summer. As the sun angle begins to lower, there’s less radiation to work with. Therefore, the temperatures are not as extreme as in mid summer.

Yet at the same time, longer nights begin to subtly change the seasons. This process begins in earnest up in Canada, and across higher elevations of northern New England. As the nights grow longer, cool air settles to the valley floors, then begins to overspread the coastal plain.

Unseasonably warm ocean temperatures in recent years have slowed this process down considerably, leading to “endless summers.” I’m not sure if this is going to continue into October this year, but I’m pretty confident the rest of September looks to be on the warm side!

It typically takes until around this time of the year, before the coast feels its first nip to the air. After the autumnal equinox arrives a week from today, this process typically begins to accelerate heading into October.

As mentioned above, this has not been the case in recent years. Much warmer than normal temperatures have more or less taken the fun out of outdoor fun fall activities such as fall foliage trips, apple picking, and Halloween festivities.

As mentioned last week, viewing fall foliage with temperatures in the 80’s is not my idea of fall fun in New England, at all!

With all that being said, we move on! There’s not much we can do about it, so we might as well enjoy what Mother Nature has in store for us!

We are now one week away from the autumnal equinox! You may have seen some trees beginning to change leaves already. This is perfectly normal for this time of the year. Weak or diseased trees will begin to feel the effects of less daylight sooner than healthier trees.

To get the leaves to start to change color, we need a number of factors to come together at just the right time. They’re going to change regardless, but to bring out the brightest colors, Mother Nature needs to step in and help out.

First, we need adequate rainfall during the summer season, which we’ve had.

Next, we need mild sunny days, and clear cool nights, which we’ve also had.

And third, perhaps most important, we need the temperatures to get down to frosty levels, especially after the equinox arrives.

I’m not looking for hard freezes, just temperatures down in the 30’s and lower 40’s are good enough to activate the process, perhaps with a light touch of frost would be ideal!

So far, the first two steps are looking real good! We just need those temperatures to begin dropping a bit at night to bring out the best colors. Looks like this is going to happen for much of this week. However, I don’t like what I see coming next week! My goodness…Indian Summer???

Many have been asking me about Indian Summer, and are we going to have one this year? There’s lots of different opinions on what Indian Summer means.

True Indian Summer occurs after a community has received its first freeze of the season. Meaning temperatures at or below 32 degrees for at least 3 hours.

The strict Native American definition also states that most of the leaves should have fallen off the trees. Here in Boston, this would mean true Indian Summer would not occur at its earliest until mid November or so. This has been pushed back a good two weeks on when it used to be due to a warmer climate.

As mentioned above, there are many variations. I find it acceptable if a location has received its first frost, not necessarily a freeze, and a period of warm weather follows. This could easily classify as Indian Summer in my book!

If recent trends are any indication, I believe there is a greater than 50% chance that we experience Indian Summer this fall. We have had one for at least the last 8 out of 10 fall seasons.

Of course before we get to there, we need a frost! So far, only far northern Maine has received frost this September. This is going to change over the next several nights. A cool air mass has pressed down into New England from southern Canada.

This is going to result in ideal radiation all cooling over the next several nights across much of New England. This is especially true across rural and high terrain areas. I would not be surprised to see many frost and freeze warnings go up for much of northern New England, away from the ocean and urban areas.

Even down here in southern New England, there will be some communities which drop into the 30’s, with areas of patchy frost. While it may drop below 50 for the first time in Boston, there is no danger of frost due to urban heat island effect, and its close proximity to the ocean. Chilly, nonetheless!

Thereafter, crank up the air conditioners, and head back to the beach? Wow! Latest indications show a large area of high pressure (dry & warm) building across much of the eastern part of the U.S. including here in New England.

This will mean much warmer than average temperatures returning to New England, beginning this weekend, and possibly lasting through the rest of the month! How warm? Well, 80’s seem a sure bet, but I would not be surprised to see some locations touch 90 again!

Now time for your final beach, boating forecast. Please note, if I feel as if the warm weather is going to persist, I may extend the beach & boating forecast until I see a change in the pattern!

Though best beach & boating days will come next weekend, every day this week will feature splendid September weather, with sunny skies & light winds. The only thing holding you back may be the cool temperatures over the next few days. Come this weekend, temperatures are going to warm up enough to head to the beach or boating activities. Come next week, summer activities could be back in full force!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. For the rest of today, expect sunny and comfortable temperatures, with highs in the lower 70’s.

Watch for clear and cool weather overnight, within lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

For the period of Tuesday through Thursday, watch for true September like weather, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60’s under deep blue skies, and light winds. The real story will be at night, where temperatures will fall into the 30’s across the interior of New England. There will be areas of frost north and west of I495, & across mountain and low lying locations.

Beginning on Friday, the air mass will begin to modify, and temperatures should warm back up into the 70’s.

Early indications for this upcoming weekend calls for sunny weather, with temperatures warming up into the upper 70’s, perhaps even some lower 80s. The potential exists for even warmer temperatures next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my official autumn forecast. I will also have your first fall foliage report, as well as our first outdoor fall activity forecast. In the meantime, if you enjoy fall, this is your week. Not to be outdone, summer returns next week!

Thanks, for reading!

Pete