Early Fall? Not So Fast! 9/9/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After Dorian passed by early Saturday morning, the weather rapidly improved during the afternoon. After a cool morning, temperatures slowly warmed, as the sun came out.

Sunday was a classic September day, with times of sun mixed with passing clouds. It really wasn’t a beach day, but if you ventured down to the ocean you may of been treated to some large swells rolling in from Dorian.

What about, Dorian? After a catastrophic hit to the northern Bahamas, you may be surprised to know that the hurricane never really made a U.S. landfall! Of course this is good news, but oh my did it come close!

In fact, if you followed the track of Dorian, you would notice that it practically traced the coastline from Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with the eye passing within 20 to 50 miles of the coast.

After battering the Carolina coastline, the storm began to accelerate, on its way to New England. Fortunately for us, the track was more offshore, passing 150 miles southeast of Nantucket. This actually lined up very nicely with my forecast from last Monday.

While the Cape and parts of eastern Maine got a nice soaking and some strong winds, the storm bypassed the rest of New England, leaving some wondering what happened to the forecast for heavy rain and gusty winds.

What happened is the storm tracked even further offshore at the last minute, sparing the Boston area any impacts from the storm. Glad I maintained my original forecast!

Because Nova Scotia is to our northeast, and sticks out into the Atlantic Ocean, the storm had no where to go other than to crash into the peninsula, where 60 to 80 mph winds were observed.

We are now entering the climatological peak of hurricane season. On average, hurricane season peaks with highest level of activity on September 10th. Gazing over the satellite images from this morning, the tropics have certainly come to life, as there are many areas of tropical disturbances stretching from Africa, all the way through the Pacific Ocean.

At this moment, we do not have to worry about any tropical activity threatening the eastern seaboard. However, long range computer models are indicating the potential for possibly yet another major hurricane off the southeast coast of the U.S. in about 10 days from now.

Just the thought of this is devastating news for the Bahama Islands. As of this moment, people who live in the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the U.S. should pay close attention to future trends and forecasts…because the threat is real.

Early indications show that New England would be protected by high pressure. But things can change this far out, and we too should monitor the situation carefully.

In the meantime, we are fast approaching the mid point of September. While not many, some folks are asking me when the weather is going to turn more fall like.

Actually, the weather has cooled off. Temperatures for September so far are averaging near normal. Last week, I mentioned that much of the month and even deeper into the fall will feature more seasonal weather for a change around here.

I don’t like flip flopping on my predictions! However, now computer models are developing a very large area of extreme heat across the middle and southeastern part of the country! There’s no denying at least some of this heat making its presence known here in New England over the second half of September!

So if you love summer, don’t pack away the summer attire and air conditioners just yet! My original forecast of a “toasty” September seemed to be the way to go! In fact, there’s even an outside shot some communities may flirt with 90 degrees, and maybe one more trip to the beach before we close the book on that?

I am a huge fan of fall here in New England. In fact, it’s my second favorite season right behind winter. However, I must say, recent trends in a warming climate has essentially taken away my anticipation of enjoying all the outdoor fall activities. Going on a fall foliage trip with temperatures in the 80’s is not my idea of fall in New England!

These warm temperatures will only serve to once again delay our foliage season this year. It’s still too early to tell for sure just how vibrant the season will be.

Earlier indications called for a very colorful season, as many areas of New England has seen just enough rain this summer, and black tar disease looks to stay away this year.

However, this can all change if temperatures don’t cooperate. We need temperatures to start cooling off in September, so the leaves can start changing color in October. If it stays too warm, the trees will to be confused, and continue to receive nutrients to remain green.

It’s a fine balance between moisture, temperature, and sunlight that makes the leaves change. Too much of any of these could throw off the balance, resulting in a poor season.

Again, it’s still too early to be sure. Mother Nature can correct herself in ways we can’t understand. Most every foliage season brings at least some beautiful color in one way or another.

The exception was the fall foliage season of 2017. A combination of the warmest October on record, and black tar leaf disease resulted in one of the worst foliage seasons on record. I am not aniticipating these conditions this year. In the coming weeks, I will be discussing more about our fall foliage season, and have more in depth updates!

Looking deeper into the fall, it’s still too early to determine how October and November will turn out. Undoubtedly, September will turn out to be another above average month, temperature wise. Some computer models are indicating a cooler October, then warm again in November? I will monitor this outlook carefully, and have more updates in the coming weeks.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week another 7 out of 10. The real warm weather I spoke of, will arrive next week.

Expect generally fair weather for the rest of today, with a mixture of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be a bit on the cool side, with highs generally in the 60’s.

In fact, I’m expecting very tranquil weather for the rest of this week. Therefore, I can sum up the forecast from Tuesday through next weekend as generally seasonal weather to at times warmer than normal. This is common for September, which features some of our finest weather of the year.

Expect the warmest days to be Wednesday, then again next Saturday and Sunday when temperatures could reach the mid to upper 70’s. Other days will feature cooling sea breezes, with temperatures only in the upper 60’s along coastal areas, but low 70’s inland. Overnight lows will oscillate between the 50’s and low 60’s.

While boating should be fine for much of the week, you will need to pick your beach time carefully, for those brave enough to venture out there! Ironically, better beach weather could be in the cards come next week!

I’m not expecting too much rain this week. The best chance of a few showers would be sometime on Wednesday night, with the higher levels of humidity, then again sometime on Saturday. No washout is anticipated at this time. There will be times of cloudiness and sunshine, similar to today.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a more in depth look at the autumn forecast, as we move closer to the autumnal equinox. I will also have your last beach and boating forecast for the season…oh no!

In the meantime, enjoy the late season mild temperatures…it won’t be long before the winds of change herald in autumn!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Watching Dorian…9/2/19

Happy Labor Day, to all! Welcome to meteorological autumn! I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday weekend! Overall, it’s been a very pleasant weekend, weatherwise. Though not as hot as it’s been, it’s still been plenty warm enough to spend time on the beach, camping or taking a hike.

Both Saturday and Sunday were stellar late summer days, featuring bright sunshine, warm temperatures and light winds. The fine weather is continuing across much of the Cape today. Elsewhere, cloudiness is beginning to increase across the region, but it looks like the rain is going to hold off until dark.

As mentioned above, yesterday marked the unofficial end to summer, and the first day of meteorological autumn. This does not mean summer is over!

There is no correlation between the weather, and the meteorological seasons. Meteorologists do this to separate the seasons into four distinct quarters, and to keep record keeping in order.

Meteorological fall runs from September 1st, through November 30th.

The official start of autumn this year is September 23rd. There have been many a year, when Mother Nature suddenly changes the weather, when the equinox arrives.

I have witnessed it countless of times. Warm, summery weather hanging on right up until the autumnal equinox. Then, seemingly overnight, the chilly winds of autumn sweep into our region, heralding in the change of seasons with frosts, and beautiful fall colors!

Unfortunately, for those who love crisp temperatures, fall foliage trips, and talk of early season snow flurries, this has not been the case around here for several years now.

Unusually warm weather persisted here in the Boston area right up until Columbus Day, last year. It was so warm that only 10% of the trees had turned color right up until October mid October.

However, a sudden change in the weather patterns occurred around that time, resulting in much colder weather for much of interior New England. These chilly temperatures finally helped change the leaves the first week of November, here in Boston.

It was the most unusual fall foliage season. I’ll never forget how peak fall foliage came charging through Boston about 10 days later than average time, culminating in 3 brief days of spectacular vivid colors.

This is why it’s so difficult to determine when peak will move through our area, and how bright it’s going to be. Many experts wrote off the season, blaming very warm temperatures, and too much rain.

The unusual weather patterns continued into November. While the Boston area saw the wettest November on record, with close to 10″ of rain falling, many in northern New England, and especially the mountains were treated to a very unusually snowy November. This enabled many ski resorts to get off to a booming start to the season.

I like the saying, “what happens in November, the winter will remember.” This worked out quite well last winter, as the Boston area continued to receive a barrage of mixed winter storms, nearly all of them changing to rain or ice here in the city.

Meanwhile, where it was cold enough up in northern New England, many of these storms fell as mainly snow…and a lot of it!

The bottom line is that the region received a lot of precipitation last fall, and it was warm too, at least through mid October.

What about this year? Well, it would be difficult to repeat last years over abundance of rain.

Last week, I was touting how “toasty” I thought September was going to be. Unfortunately, for those looking for another endless summer this year, I’m afraid I’m going to have to pump the brakes on that idea.

As with many things, it’s all relative. While computer models have backed off the “torchy” look to September, they’re also not saying break out the woolies just yet!

After years of endless summers, extending well into October, and some in some cases through November, computer models are now depicting the New England region could possibly experience a more “typical” fall.

If this is indeed the case, it may seem a bit chillier to some folks compared to what they’ve been used to in recent years.

Yes, there will be times of warm and cold. However, at this time I do not see any signal for prolonged warmth or cold for that matter. This back and forth regime, generally leads to a more average scenario.

If anything, I would lean a bit warmer than average in September, and possibly a bit chillier than normal come October this year. November is too difficult to tell at this point.

The last two November’s have featured below average temperatures in Boston. Trends would favor a warmer than normal November this year, but again, it’s too early to determine this at this point.

Right now, let’s focus on September. Typical high temperatures start out in around 77 degrees, then drop to around 67 degrees at months end. Low temperatures start out at 64 degrees, and finish at 54 degrees at months end.

With temperatures like this, it’s no wonder many folks call September our best weather month of the year!

Boston typically feels their first nip to the air anytime after mid September. While we do not see frost here in the city, it’s quite common for rural, interior locations to experience a touch of frost in September.

While my fall foliage reports do not begin for another few weeks, it’s not too early to start talking about it! Leaves are already beginning to change in northern Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire.

These locations typically experience peak foliage at the end of September and first week of October. The color wave then begins to descend south and east, not reaching the Boston are until around Halloween and the first week of November along the coast.

As we progress deeper into the season, I will be reporting on the progress of our fall foliage, and our ever changing weather patterns…so stay tuned!

Now that we’re into September, it comes as no surprise that the hurricane season has suddenly blossomed. Hurricane season peaks around September 10th, on average.

This weekend saw Hurricane Dorian suddenly intensify into one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Yesterday, this storm was classified as a category 5 storm, with sustained winds of 185 mph!

After a devastating hit to the Bahama island of Abaco, the storm literally stalled today over Grand Bahama, lashing the island with catastrophic winds and storm surges.

Due to weak steering currents, computer models have had a difficult time resolving which direction the storm will track next. At this point, it appears as if the storm will lash the east coast of Florida with at least minimal hurricane force conditions. However, a true landfall is not likely at this point. This will spare Florida the full wrath of the storm.

From there, the storm will tack a track parallel to the east coast, possibly making a landfall across the outer banks of North Carolina.

Many folks have been asking me questions about New England. Right now a direct hit is unlikely for our region. The storm is likely to track more northeast, than north.

However, as the storm makes it’s closest pass Friday night, some parts of southeastern Mass. and especially the Cape and the islands may briefly experience gusty winds and rain squalls. If there are any changes in this track, I will be sure to update everyone!

Now for your weekly beach, boating and vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Best beach days will be tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, and all of next weekend. Caution with boating this week! Swells from the hurricane will result in rough seas, especially from Thursday through Saturday!

After some early sun, expect clouds to thicken and lower as the day progresses. It will turn a bit muggy, but I’m expecting rain to hold off until after dark in the Boston area. Temperatures should mainly be in the low to mid 70’s.

Watch for showers to move in from west to east early this evening. Some areas may receive some heavy downpours, but most will see about a half inch of rain.

Tuesday should feature rapidly improving weather, with a beautiful early September afternoon expected, with plenty of sun, and temperatures in the mid 70’s.

Tuesday night will see fair and cool weather, with lows in the 50’s and low 60’s.

Watch for a brief spike in humidity and heat on Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 80’s. There may be some showers moving through the region Wednesday night, as a cool front sweeps through.

Thursday will be a fine early September day, with sunshine and a brisk wind. Temperatures will only reach the upper 60’s! Watch for chilly weather Thursday night, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

As mentioned above, as Dorian passes to our southeast on Friday, we may be brushed by the northwestern flank of the storm. Right now, I’m expecting some gusty winds across much of southeastern Mass. possibly up to Boston.

There also may be rain squalls and gusty winds across the Cape, possibly up to the Boston area. If the storm tracks closer, the gusts would be more significant, perhaps up to hurricane strength. If it passes further south and east, effects will be less minimal.

Regardless, after this storm passes our region, it will draw in much drier air for this weekend. Right now, I’m expecting warm and windy weather for Saturday, with highs near 80. Sunday may turn a bit cooler, but still dry, with highs in the lower 70’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In Next week’s blog, I will continue to fine tune my autumn forecast. I will also have a new tropical forecast, and a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the September weather, it won’t be long until that nip in the air, turns into a bite!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Go Patriots!

Happy Birthday to my niece, Elena!

Touch of Autumn…8/26/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Saturday was a fine summer day, with deep blue skies, light winds, and temperatures in the upper 70’s.

Sunday was decidedly cooler, with low clouds rolling in from the ocean, with temperatures only near 70 or so along the coast, but mid 70’s inland. By afternoon, the clouds finally burned off, which yielded some sunshine across the region, despite feeling much like early October.

Sunday night was downright chilly, with some suburbs falling into the 40’s! In Boston, it was the first time the temperature dropped below 60 degrees in 71 days!

Last week, I called for endless days of sunshine and mild temperatures through the weekend. Well, a little curve ball was thrown at me yesterday!

Much like a winter time scenario, a strong high pressure built over Quebec. Normally, you would think fair weather with a high pressure. High pressure typically means sinking air, which is more stable, and is associated with fair weather.

However, when strong high pressure builds in this position over Quebec, the clockwise flow around it turns the winds in a northeasterly direction from the Boston area points south and east.

In wintertime, this can result in snow snow flurries and snow squalls blowing in off of the ocean. It can also provide a source of cold air drainage out of eastern Canada for our nor’easters.

But because it’s August, the cool air that blew in over the relatively warm Atlantic, produced low clouds, fog, and even some showers across Plymouth County. As the air warmed , the clouds dissipated, yielding more breaks of sunshine during the afternoon.

Still, the pattern resembled a more fall like scenario, than late August. It was a surprise development as the week unfolded. If you live 20 miles north and west of the coastal plain, there were no clouds to be found the whole weekend!

With the sudden chill to the air, this begs the question, is summer over? The short answer to this question is, no! For those who love summer, we are not heading towards an early fall!

After reviewing some computer guidance today, many will be pleased to learn that September is looking real toasty once again this year. I will explain in more detail shortly.

After last Thursday’s record tying 93 degrees, Boston has now officially reached its seasonal average of 14 ninety degree days. If summer ended today, it would go down as a normal summer for 90 degree readings. However, as you know, summer does not officially end until September 23rd this year!

At this point, I have been very pleased with my summer forecast this year. As with many seasonal forecasts, it had many variables that needed to be factored in.

My forecast was for between 10 and 14 ninety degree days. As I mentioned last week, if it ended right now, it would be on point. It’s very unlikely we see any more 90 degree days here in August.

The outlook for September is a different story. As mentioned above, computer models continue to advertise a warm, to much warmer than normal September around here. This has been the trend the last 10 years or so.

So what does this mean? Typically, Boston receives on average about one 90 degree day in September. Years ago, it would be rare to see 90 in September. However, in recent years, September has trended warmer. So much so, that 90 is now a regular occurrence.

In fact, we have seen bonafied heat waves in the last several Septembers. Due to these trends, I am still expecting between 2 to 3 more 90 degree days this season. This would bring the seasonal total to 16 or 17. This is a very impressive number, especially considering how hot last summer was.

Why have Septembers become so warm? Well, I believe a lot has to do with the ocean temperatures being at record warm levels over the past decade or so. With the warming oceans, the climate has obviously warmed. With the increased temperatures, summers have actually extended deeper into our fall.

I have said it before, this is a viscous feedback cycle. The only way to break this cycle would be to have a major shift in the ocean temperatures, which would then be reflected our atmosphere. This would be a major undertaking for Mother Nature to reverse this warm feedback process…something I don’t see anytime soon.

Now for your weekly outdoor beach, boating & vacation forecast. I am giving this week another 8 out of 10! Wow, this has been a spectacular summer!

Expect sunny and fall like weather the rest of today, with highs between 70 and 75 degrees across the region.

Watch for another clear and chilly night, with lows mainly in the 50’s. However, much like last night, temperatures will fall into the 40’s across many rural areas.

Tuesday will feature lots of sun, with highs mainly in the low to mid 70’s across the region.

Tuesday night will bring increasing clouds and milder temperatures. Lows will mainly be in the 50’s and 60’s.

Watch for more clouds and an increase in humidity on Wednesday. There will be some showers moving through the region sometime Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures should be warmer, with highs in the low 80’s.

A cold front should sweep off the New England coast early Thursday, followed by more dry weather. With a west wind, temperatures should warm up into the mid 80’s on Thursday.

Expect beautiful late August day on Friday, with mainly sunny skies. And temperatures in the mid 80’s.

Right now, the Labor Day holiday weekend is looking nice at this point. There may be some scattered showers around, but no washout is anticipated at this point. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs mainly in the 70’s Saturday and Sunday, and possibly back up into the 80’s on Labor Day itself.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new update as to what to expect for September. I will also have my fall forecast, as well as a new beach boating forecast. I will also have a tropical update, as we have newly formed Dorian that has developed in the Caribbean Ocean. In the meantime, no need to panic just yet…I will let you know when that time comes!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

One of my methods of

Remembering “Hurricane Bob”…8/19/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Though summery, many along the coast were dealing with a moist onshore flow, and fog banks. You were one of the lucky ones if the sky cleared on Saturday, as the low clouds were stubborn to burn off.

Sunday featured more sun, but oh that humidity was awful! Many inland areas approached 90, while winds turned onshore at the beaches, offering some minor relief.

Overall, I was somewhat disappointed in my forecast last week. Weak onshore winds interacted with the cool ocean, bringing murky mornings to coastal regions. This burned off in some cases, but remained quite stubborn in some coastal communities.

The weather here in New England never ceases to amaze me. What at one point looked like mostly a nice summery week, suddenly changed.

What happened? A sudden drop in ocean temperatures just off the New England coast had many meteorologists adjusting forecasts on a day by day basis.

Despite what computer models were saying, the sudden drop in ocean temperatures created a micro climate for coastal New England. As the warm, moist air interacted with the cool ocean, fog banks developed.

While these fog banks can flirt with the beaches during the day, they really make their presence known at night, as the air temperature cools, and matches the dew point temperature. When this occurs, the air becomes 100% saturated, and with a light onshore wind, the fog can come rolling inland.

After the hottest July on record in Boston, August has featured somewhat cooler weather. This is all relative, as the month is still averaging well above average here in Boston. It took a while to build up, but today is actually Boston’s first 90 degree day of the month!

Logan Airport has now officially reached 90 degrees 13 times this summer. If we do not hit 90 again this summer, it would make for a pretty average summer for reaching 90 degrees here in the city. The long term average for Boston is 14 days.

As a reminder, my projection for hitting 90 in Boston this summer was for between 10 and 14 days.

So far, I’m very pleased with my summer forecast. With a warming climate, it’s been very difficult to gauge just how many 90 degree days the city is going to receive.

As mentioned above, if the summer were to end this week, I would be right on point.

However, looking over some of the long range computer data, it still appears as if the heat will return during the last week in August. This alone may bring another couple more days of 90 degree weather.

After a brief cool down around Labor Day, more warm weather may be the rule, not the exception for much of September. Typically, Boston averages one 90 degree day in September.

However, based upon the past several years, the city has received between 4 and 6 additional 90 degree days In September alone!

I’m not sure that’s going to happen this year, but it does tell us that several more 90 degree days are possible before summer fades.

While I don’t see us smashing any records for 90 degree days this summer, I still believe we have an outside shot at reaching 90 degrees 20 times this summer.

If this were to occur, it would be the first time in recorded history here in Boston, of back to back summers of reaching 90 degrees at least 20 times. Last year, Boston hit ninety 23 times!

Now that we are deeper into the summer season, it’s a good time to start talking about tropical storms & hurricanes. So far, there has been virtually no storms to talk about this year. There was a borderline storm “Barry” which briefly attained hurricane status back in July, but that’s been about it.

With all that being said, we are only now entering prime time for hurricane season. From this point forward, hurricane activity quickly ramps up until reaching its peak around September 10th.

Plenty of storms have developed thereafter, even into October, and sometimes even November. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30th.

Speaking of hurricanes, it was on this date back in 1991 that Hurricane Bob struck southeastern Massachusetts. Bob was the last hurricane to make landfall in any location of New England.

I remember this day like it was yesterday. At one point, Bob was a fierce category 3 storm sitting off the New Jersey coast. Earlier forecasts had the storm tracking up through Narragansett Bay, and passing just west of Boston as a strong category 2 hurricane. Such a path would of resulted in widespread damage across much of eastern Massachusetts.

However, a slight last second shift to the east spared the Boston area the brunt of the storm.

I remember the media building up hype for the storm. People taping up windows, and preparing for the worst. Back then, technology was not advanced as it is today, so the last second shift in the storm left many in the Boston area wondering, what the heck happened?

Here in Boston, the storm ended up being sort of like a summertime nor’easter. Some gusty winds, a lot of rain, but certainly no hurricane.

To understand why this happened, you have to understand the components of a hurricane. The worst part of the hurricane is always in right quadrant of the storm.

As the eye of the storm crossed extreme southeast Rhode Island, it then passed south of Boston, and exited the coast near Scituate, Ma. This left Boston on the northwest side of the storm, which is the much less windy and less destructive quadrant of the storm.

However, this left southeastern Massachusetts, and all of the Cape and Islands vulnerable to the damaging right side of the eye. It is here where the storm unleashed its fury, lashing much of the Cape with winds of up to 125 MPH, a devastating storm surge, and significant tree and property damage.

The aftermath of the storm was shocking. At the time, my Aunt Helen owned a summer cottage in East Falmouth. I’ll never forget the pictures of large yachts sitting on top of pilings in Green Pond Boat Yard.

I estimated the storm surge to be on the order of 12 feet in Falmouth. Storm surge was also very significant in towns along Buzzards Bay such as Marion and Wareham, as the ocean had no where to go but to funnel up into the cone shaped bay.

I also will never forget driving down to the Cape sometime after the storm in September, and seeing all the trees stripped of their leaves! It was surreal, as it looked like late November, but technically it was still summer!

Later I learned that this was due to the howling winds whipping the salt water off of the ocean, and carrying it quite a distance inland, killing the leaves. Amazingly, the leaves began to bloom again later in September that year, due to an extremely warm autumn!

Officially, Bob made landfall as a category 2 hurricane near Block Island and Newport, Rhode Island, with winds up to 110 MPH, with higher gusts.

As I have mentioned before, we are way overdue for a land falling hurricane here in New England. You may not realize this, but there have been many hurricanes that have struck our region in years past.

It’s a case of when not if, when the next hurricane will hit. In typical New England fashion, the longer we go without a direct hit, the more severe the outcome. Pray not in our lifetime!

I would love to hear your comment or memories dealing with Hurricane Bob!

For time purposes, I’m going to combine the beach and boating forecast into the general forecast this week.

Now for your weekly summer beach, boating and vacation forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10! Another beauty!

Sorry for the late post. As you know, today was a scorcher! Boston reached a record high of 95 degrees with stifling humidity!

Expect a few lingering showers this evening, otherwise look for a typical summer night, with warm temperatures along with uncomfortable levels of humidity.

The thunderstorms of this evening actually marked a change in air mass. Therefore, tomorrow will feature very warm temperatures, not as hot as today, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. However, the big change will be with the humidity. Dew points will be much lower than today, with drier more comfortable air.

Look for very pleasant weather tomorrow evening, with warm temperatures, and clear skies. Clouds will tend to increase late at night.

A warm front will surge through the region early Wednesday. As this occurs, dew point temperatures will sky rocket, and will make Wednesday feel very uncomfortable. If we get enough sun, temperatures could make a run at 90, but will most likely fall just short.

A stronger cold front will be approaching New England later on in the day. As this cold front interacts with the muggy air, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms could develop later in the afternoon. Keep an eye to the sky if you plan on doing any boating or heading to the beach!

As the cold front sluggishly pushes off the coast, scattered showers may linger into Wednesday evening. It will still be on the muggy side well into Wednesday night.

In fact, it still could be quite muggy on Thursday, with a mixture of sun and clouds. A follow up trough of low pressure may spark an additional shower or thunderstorm on Thursday, but a washout is not anticipated at this time.

For the period of Friday through next Monday, expect summer weather at its best! I’m very confident calling for sunny skies, low levels of humidity, near zero chance of rain…in other words, near perfection!

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next blog, I will let you know if and when the next surge of summer heat will arrive. I will also have a new vacation planner forecast, as well as a sneak peek into early autumn! Yikes! In the meantime, enjoy the summertime weather…and pray for no hurricanes!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

More Summer In Our Future…8/12/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed the spectacular weather this weekend! After the muggy weather of last week, the air mass turned decidedly cooler and drier this past weekend. In fact, you could say it felt a bit Septemberish early Sunday morning! All in all, this was a welcome change, and I did not hear too many people complaining!

I did notice some folks fearing that summer could be over. In some years, this could be true. Some years, we get a quick burst of summer weather, followed by a cool down, and then summer can’t regain its strength thereafter. I do not believe that this is the case this year, which I will explain shortly.

Last week, I was touting about all this great weather, and a rating of 8 out 10. Unfortunately, a slow moving cold front fouled things up the first few days, bringing mainly cloudy weather to the region, and a very stormy Tuesday night with torrential rains and thunderstorms.

The front finally cleared the coast on Thursday, bringing with it a refreshingly cooler and drier air mass, that lasted through the weekend. While you can’t please everyone, most folks are loving this pattern of rain during the week, then beautiful weather over the weekend!

A friend on Facebook made an interesting comment that I picked up on. They said local meteorologists have not been talking about this being a hot summer or not? The friend seemed to think that it has been a hot summer.

While June brought near neutral temperatures, July went into the record books as the hottest July ever recorded! In addition, it was also the warmest month on record for any month, here in Boston. I think meteorologists are holding back calling this a hot summer, because they want to see how August turns out.

Because July was so hot, Boston will undoubtedly end up with a warmer than normal summer, regardless as to how June went, and how August ends up. If Boston were to receive no more 90 degree days, we would actually end up with below average amount of days we would typically have in Boston. How ironic would that be?

Despite June being just neutral temperatures, my feeling is that it’s been a hot summer, so far. When you receive the hottest air of the season, on the hottest month of the year, it’s going to throw the averages off. Imagine how cold it would be if Boston saw the coldest January on record! It’s the same analogy. So yes, it’s been a hot one so far!

The real wild card is to what’s going to happen the last 10 days of August. As I mentioned last week, some computer models were predicting hotter than normal weather returning to New England. Looking over today’s data, I see no reason to disagree with this information. If we finish strong with heat the last third of August, and into September, this will go down as a hot, to perhaps very hot summer.

In addition, computer models continue to advertise drier than normal conditions for us here in New England. This might be bad news for gardens and lawns, but it would be fantastic news for people going on vacations and enjoying outdoor summertime activities!

As mentioned above, Boston stands a 12 days of 90 degree days so far this summer. The average is 14 in Boston. My final call was for between 10 and 14. Not a bad forecast…if it were late September!

Last week, I called for between 5 and 7 more 90 degree days in August. Depending upon how muggy we get, we may indeed get close to that number. I say this because sometimes adding a lot of moisture to the air, doesn’t allow the temperature to reach its maximum potential. Regardless, it looks like the dog days of summer are on the way!

In addition, I see this warmer than average weather extending into a least the first two weeks of September this year, where we could tack on another 1 to 3 days of 90 degree weather.

While it’s a bit of a long shot, I still believe we have a chance at reaching 20 ninety degree days this summer. If we do, it would be the first such occurrence in Boston weather history of back to back summers of 20 ninety degree days! Last year, Boston recorded a whopping 23 days!

Now for your beach and boating forecast. For this week, it looks like the best days for these activities appear to be today, then again Thursday through Sunday…much like last week. Watch for rain tomorrow, which may linger into Wednesday morning.

Though the rain may push east on Wednesday, clouds may tend to linger along the coast. Another dry, refreshing air mass may follow for the period Thursday through Sunday. Thereafter the heat will begin to build into New England come next week!

Here’s your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Watch for beautiful weather for the rest of today, with sunny skies and light winds. There will be a tendency for high clouds to increase later in the day, perhaps blotting out the sun by sunset. It will be warm, with highs in the middle 80s.

Expect clouds to thicken this evening. Rain showers will be advancing from the southwest and should arrive in our area either very late tonight, or by dawn on Tuesday. Lows will mainly be in the 60’s.

Tuesday is shaping up to be a inclement weather day. A front will slide through our area and stall somewhere across southern New England. Low pressure will develop on this front, and bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. It will be on the muggy side, with highs mainly in the 70’s.

As has been the case many times this summer, there’s the potential for some areas to receive heavy rain, with street flooding in poor drainage areas. Right now, this looks to be focused somewhere south of Boston, across southeastern Massachusetts, including the Cape.

While the rain may end in the Boston area tomorrow night, it may linger south of Boston and especially the Cape into the night.

Wednesday morning may see damp weather across the Cape, but skies should begin to brighten from northwest to southeast as the day progresses. It will be on the warm and muggy side, with highs in the lower 80s.

A secondary cold front will swing through the region on Thursday. This may introduce more scattered showers and cooler air. A washout is not anticipated at this time, as this will be mainly instability driven showers. Expect temperatures to mainly be in the 70’s.

Look for splendid weather to return for the period Friday through Sunday, with weather quite similar as to this past weekend. Temperatures will start off on the cool side, but warm up into the lower to mid 80’s by the time we reach Sunday, with very slight or no chance of rain.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will talk in more detail about our weather patterns for the rest of August. I will also take a quick look at what September may have in store for us, as well as a new beach and boating forecast! In the meantime, enjoy summer…part two!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Pattern In Cruise Control…8/5/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Saturday featured a bit of cloudiness around the Boston area points north and west. There was even some isolated thunderstorms, as a weak trough was meandering through the area. It was warm and muggy, with Cape Cod seeing the most sunshine.

Sunday was a splendid mid summer day, with lower humidity levels, and the continuation of very warm temperatures. Overall, it was another great weekend to enjoy outdoor summertime activities!

Welcome to August! After experiencing the hottest July on record here in Boston, and the warmest month ever recorded in history in the city, time for a change to fall like weather, right?

Well, not really. In this ever increasingly warm climate we live in today, the warm regime will be back the second half of August, and may continue for the foreseeable future thereafter!

Yes, a slight shift in the upper air pattern is bringing us back to “average” temperatures for possibly the first two weeks of the month. Even at that, I’m expecting several very warm days this week, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s.

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure (hot & dry) is building across the western part of the U.S. This in turn will bring a shallow trough (cooler) towards the eastern part of the U.S. especially as we head towards this weekend. As mentioned above, this does not mean break out the pumpkin spice coffee, Halloween decorations, fall jackets or any of that stuff. It merely means a brief island of cool, in a sea of warmth.

It’s true, some northern New England communities may feel a brief nip to the air early Sunday morning, but it will only feel refreshingly cool down here in southern New England. Coastal areas may just cool down to seasonal levels.

As has been the case the past several years, building cold in western Canada, may bring early season snows to the Canadian Rockies. No worries for us, whatsoever! This can happen out there at this time of the year.

In conjunction with the demise of the Greenland Block, this actually means New England will once again experience very warm to even hot weather as we head towards the second half of August, and much if not all of September.

Looking over some long range data, I can also see that summer will be in no hurry leaving New England this year. This may be getting ahead of myself, but it looks like another warmer than normal autumn for New England this year. After a brief cool own in October, the warm weather may come back with a vengeance in November, and set us up for a very warm start to winter.

If you love winter, I’m not overly enthusiastic about a snowy winter for the Boston area this year. We shall see as time progresses, but the warm pattern we’ve been stuck in for over a year now, seems to want to persist along the east coast well into the fall and early winter. Again, this is very preliminary and could easily change in the coming months. I will monitor, and update periodically.

I’m finding it deeply troubling how warm the weather has been in Boston, and how persistent this warmer regime has been the past several years.

As mentioned above, Boston saw it’s warmest July on record, beating the old record set back in the scorching summer of 1983, by .6 degrees. This doesn’t sound like a lot, but in a field of fractions and percentages, it’s significant. Boston also experienced its warmest month ever recorded in history!

Circling back to August, we typically see a slight cool down in average temperatures in August. However, the past couple years, the temperatures have actually been warmer than July! While I am not anticipating a warmest August on record, I am certainly on board for yet another warmer than average month in Boston.

So far, the city has received 12 ninety degree days this summer, all occurring in July. My final call for the number of 90 degree days this summer was for between 10 and 14 days. If we finished now, my forecast would be on point!

However, from what I’m seeing, it appears that Boston could be in for another 5 to 7 days of 90 degree temperatures here in August. We then could be looking at another 3 to 5 days in September. Even if the lower end of these numbers verify, we may indeed reach 20 days of 90 degree temperatures for the second summer in a row. This would be the first time in history of such an occurrence here in Boston. It’s going to be close! Wow! Warm times, indeed!

As for the short term, we continue to be in a pattern much like I envisioned from back in May. Very warm, mainly dry conditions leading to endless beach days and splendid weather for camping, boating and all other outdoor activities and events.

Once the ocean temperatures finally warmed up in late June, the winter jet stream finally receded, allowing the warmer weather to overwhelm much of New England. Once this pattern settled in, it now looks like this summer pattern is on cruise control through September…at least.

Fortunately, there’s been just enough troughs, sea breeze boundaries, and atmospheric lift to deliver drenching downpours to many communities, seemingly once a week. This has kept lawns green, and gardens lush with vibrant colors.

While this may happen again this week, the overall trend to the weather patterns heading deeper into August is to receive less rainfall. For beach & boating folks, this could lead to a spectacular end to a near perfect summer for such activities.

There is currently no tropical activity to be concerned about at this time. While this is the case at this point in time, this can change abruptly. The season typically ramps up in August, peaking around September 10th…so we have a ways to go.

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. The best days to get out there to enjoy the great weather will be today, tomorrow, a slight interruption on Wednesday (much like last week), then beautiful summer conditions will settle in for much of Thursday, and straight on through next weekend! Enjoy!

In more detail, here’s my weekly summer activity and vacation forecast. I am rating this week an 8 out of 10.

Expect beautiful weather for today, a top ten weather day for sure, with abundant sunshine, warm temperatures, low humidity levels, and light winds. A great day for the beach! High temperatures will be near seasonal levels in the mid 80’s.

A shift in the wind direction to the southwest will begin to transport high humidity levels back into New England tonight. Expect fair skies, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Watch for muggy weather for the period Tuesday through Thursday. The only relief may be at the beaches, where afternoon sea breezes may offer some cooler temperatures off the ocean. High temperatures will run into the upper 80’s inland, but possibly only near 80 along the coast both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday could get close to 90 before a strong cold front sweeps through the area, bringing a change in air mass.

It’s not going to be rain free. While there’s a slight chance on Tuesday for an afternoon thunderstorm, chances increase to likely for afternoon thunderstorms on both Wednesday and Thursday. With that being said, I am not anticipating a washout by any means either day.

After the front clears the coast, expect a refreshing continental summer polar air mass to sweep into the region Friday through Sunday. This means very low humidity levels, pleasantly warm days with high temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s across the mountains and interior zones, and 70’s and low 80’s (especially across southern and eastern areas).

With the clear and dry conditions, expect comfortably cool nights across the interior with temperatures falling into the 40’s and 50’s across interior sections, with near seasonable levels along coastal sections, 50’s and 60’s expected.

This will make for near perfect viewing conditions for the Perseid Meteor Shower! However, a waxing moon will take a way some of the viewing of the faint meteors due to moon shine.

Depending upon time and weather conditions, next week could be an abbreviated post. When our pattern is in cruise control, it may be a good time for me to take a break!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know when I think the next surge of hot weather will arrive here in New England. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, our pattern is cruising right now…hopefully we’re not cruising for a bruising!

As always…thanks for reading!

Pete

Heat Wave…Round Two! 7/29/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a glorious mid summer weekend, for all outdoor summer activities!

Saturday featured plenty of sun, with temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 80’s. Sunday turned downright hot, with temperatures soaring up to 93 degrees in Boston!

Today will be day number two of a three possibly four day heat wave here in Boston. This will be the cities second official heat wave of the season.

Last week, the intense heat wave ended with severe weather, and a very unusual EF1 tornado, which did significant damage to Yarmouth, Dennis, Harwich, and Chatham regions on the Cape. Estimated winds from the tornado reached as high as 110 mph!

It’s been awfully hot here in Boston this July. How hot? Well, according to the projections from the National Weather Service and local meteorologists, this will end up being the hottest July on record in Boston!

Many people are quite surprised by this statistic. They’re telling me it just doesn’t feel as hot as last July. This is where perception vs. reality plays a huge role on how we remember past weather conditions, vs. what really happened.

Channel 4 meteorologist Eric Fisher was talking about how much higher the humidity was last summer, which made it feel so uncomfortably hot!

It could also be possible that we have been breaking warm temperature records on such a consistent basis lately, that we’ve become more accustomed to the hot weather?

Either way you look at it, it’s been hot! Boston could possibly reach 90 degrees for the 12th time on Wednesday, in July alone!

Yes, I do agree, there’s has been less stifling humidity so far this summer…thank God!!! The reason appears to be that the Bermuda High is positioned differently this summer, compared to last year.

Last year, the high strengthened, and expanded westward to encompass the entire east coast, including New England. It also extended deep into the tropics, funneling pure tropical air straight into New England unabated for days on end.

The Bermuda High is still strong this summer, but fortunately for us, is configured differently. This year, the high is more squashed, and elongated across the Atlantic Ocean.

This is allowing cool fronts to penetrate more often from southern Canada, giving New England welcome breaks from high dew point temperatures. This was pointed out in my summer forecast back in May.

Nevertheless, the hot air is expansive along the east coast. With ocean temperatures at record high levels, this has allowed very warm, to at times hot air to easily penetrate into New England.

With Boston potentially seeing it’s 12th 90 degree day by Wednesday, I’m becoming increasingly nervous about my forecast of 10 to 14 days of 90 degree days verifying this summer.

I was chatting with a friend on Twitter this morning, and he was saying that it feels like a typical summer to him so far. Again, this is where perception plays against reality.

In a typical summer, Boston receives approximately 14 ninety degree days for an entire season. We’ve already hit 90 today for our 10th day. We will surpass 90 tomorrow for 11, and potentially hit 90 again for number 12 on Wednesday.

In an “average” August, Boston typically experiences 4 ninety degree days. Tack on another one in an average September, and we’re suddenly at 17 for the season.

The big wild card is what’s going to happen this August?? If the last two August’s are any indication, we should experience at least an average August, if not hotter than average.

If that weren’t enough, September in recent years has brought its fair share of summertime warmth, with many 90 degree days occurring quite frequently.

If these plumes of hot air continue to surge into New England, we could be looking at our second summer in a row of 20 plus days of 90 degree temperatures.

I have to be honest, at the beginning of the summer, I did not think that this was possible. If this does indeed happen, it would be the first time in recorded history of this occurring in Boston.

You have to wonder, with all of these warm weather records either being broken or shattered lately, just how much of an influence humans are having an effect on our climate? This will be another discussion for another time!

Just a quick recap of July. Obviously, it’s been warm…to hot! As mentioned above, it will go down as Boston’s warmest July on record!

Not only has it been hot, but it has also been very wet! Several episodes of drenching thunderstorms have kept lawns & gardens lush, and reservoirs full!

What can we expect for August? Well, as mentioned above…it’s complicated. If one were to go by trends alone, we could be in for another hotter than average month. However, latest computer models want to re-establish the Greenland Block.

If this occurs, the eastern parts of the country could be looking at a significant cool down for the first two weeks of August.

Here in New England, it’s not so cut and dry. Because the trough is digging so deep to our west, the steering currents may continue to transport warm & muggy air up the Atlantic coast from the tropics.

This type of pattern could also lead to tropical trouble, especially for us here in New England. Something I will be closely monitoring as we head deeper into the season.

Right now, I would lean warm, with near to above average temperatures for August. Computer models are also indicating drier conditions as compared to July. This is very challenging, as local thunderstorms can easily offset this signal, as it did in July.

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. Looks like another great week! The best days for these activities are today, tomorrow, part of Wednesday, Thursday afternoon, then Friday through Sunday. So basically nearly the whole week! Wow! What a summer so far!

Here’s your weekly vacation and summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. It may be a little shaky in the middle of the week, similar to last week last week. Hopefully not as severe.

However, the great summery weather is going to far exceed the slight interruption midweek, thus the high rating.

Expect mainly sunny and hot weather for both today and tomorrow. With southwest winds, watch for temperatures to warm up to between 90 and 95 both days, along with high levels of humidity. Overnight lows will barely fall to 70 in the city, and 60’s in rural areas.

A slow moving cold front will be approaching the area on Wednesday. Depending upon how much sun we receive, Boston could possibly achieve 90 degrees once again. With the cold front approaching, there is an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms later in the day and at night.

Showers and thunderstorms could linger into Thursday morning, especially south of Boston and towards the Cape and the Islands.

However, predicting how quickly this front clears the coast, is very difficult to do. It could pass through earlier, bringing most of us a nice day on Thursday.

However, it could also suddenly slow down, as it did last week, bringing a more significant line of showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially down towards the Cape.

Regardless, the front looks to clear the region for a better second half of the day on Thursday, with lowering dew points, and warm temperatures.

Expect splendid summertime weather to return to the region Friday through Sunday, with low dew point temperatures, and warm temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid 80’s region wide.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to take a more in depth look at our August challenges. I will also talk a bit about tropical concerns, and have your new summer vacation forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the heat wave, we may be talking snow and cold just 6 short months from today!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Brief Relief! 7/22/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed the hottest weekend in recorded history here in Boston! Friday kicked off the heat wave, with temperatures soaring to 93 degrees, after a surprisingly cool start to the day. Saturday was scorcher, with temperatures topping off at 97 degrees. Sunday was even a touch hotter, with ahigh temperature of 98 degrees in Boston. All sorts of records were broken this weekend, which I will get into shortly.

Out of the three days, I would say Saturday afternoon was the most brutal. The combination of temperatures in the upper 90’s, and absolutely lethal levels of humidity, made the heat index rise to between 105 and 110 degrees across the area.

Remember, the heat index is much like a wind chill index in winter. This is not the actual air temperature, but what it feels like with the dew point temperature (amount of water vapor in the air) in the summer, or wind evaporating the moisture away from our body in the winter.

As a lifetime Boston resident, I can honestly say that Saturday evening was the hottest I have ever felt it here in Boston. It wasn’t so much the temperature, we’ve been hotter, but the unprecedented dew point temperature of 78 degrees in Boston resulted in a heat index of 106 degrees in the city. After being in my air conditioner all day Saturday, it was like walking into a gas furnace when I stepped outside!

Longtime WBZ meteorologist Barry Burbank said he never could recall such a combination of heat and humidity in his 40 years of broadcast meteorology. With a temperature of 91 degrees at 10:00 PM and dew point temperature of 77, this resulted in a very oppressive heat index of 103 degrees…at 10 PM!!

Low temperatures only fell to 83 degrees Sunday morning. This set up a good launching pad for temperatures to soar up to a late afternoon high of 98 degrees in Boston. While still very hot, a brisk west wind helped to whisk away some of the swamp like humidity of Saturday. This made for a very hot, but somewhat drier Sunday afternoon across the region.

Once again, low temperatures only fell to 83 degrees last night. This was the first such occurrence of 2 consecutive nights where temperatures failed to fall below 80 degrees in Boston, in recorded history!

I do not have all the statistics available, but according to WBZ meteorologist Eric Fisher, the combination of temperatures in the upper 90’s both days, and overnight lows of 83 degrees, made this past weekend average temperatures the hottest weekend ever recorded in the city of Boston!

As I mentioned last week, we are currently in the hottest time of the year, according to climatology and where we are in regards to the season. Having this kind of heat this time of the year actually makes it feel hotter than usual.

Energy demands skyrocketed last evening, as everyone returned home from the beach and summer cottages. This resulted in several power outages across the city. Unfortunately, my mom’s home was one of homes that lost power, beginning at 6:15. Not the night you want power to go out in your home!

We rely on electricity for so many things. Caring for a 91 year old elderly person,enters this into a new level of concern when the electricity goes out, on the hottest weekend of the year! We rely on power for not only air conditioning and fans, but also her breathing treatments.

This led me to take quick action in trying to keep my mom cool! Cold compresses, and manual fanning every half hour managed to keep mom cool and somewhat comfortable through the ordeal.

What once was believed to be a quick restoration by 8:45, turned into 11:45, which then got backed up to 12:45 AM, only to be pushed back again to 1:45 in the morning. With the help by the grace of God, the power finally got restored at 1:25 in the morning!

I have to say, my mom was a trooper through the whole ordeal! We were very fortunate the humidity levels were not as high as the night before. Nevertheless, it could of turned into an emergency at any point. I was very grateful mom remained calm, and took things in stride!

After the four 90 degree days last week, we are now up to 8 for the season here in Boston. Many suburbs have already surpassed 12, being further away from the influence of the Atlantic Ocean.

As mentioned in my title, this week looks like we’ll enjoy a brief break from the intense heat and humidity, However, this is not the end of summer 2019.

In fact, looking over latest long range data, I’m seeing more and more evidence of more episodes of heat and humidity to continue into August, and possibly even September for that matter. This would make it the 4th hotter than normal August in a row!

This summer is looking to closely follow its predecessors, which all began slow only to pick up steam the deeper we moved into the season. Can we achieve the unthinkable of twenty or more 90 degree days, for the second summer in a row?

At the rate we’re going, and the amount of summer we still have left to go, I do think this may be in reach! This would make this the first time in the history of record keeping in Boston, that this has happened. In the warmer times we are living in, it seems we are breaking many first time records for heat these days.

My preliminary summer forecast called for between 12 and 16 days of 90 degree temperatures. I scaled it back to between 10 and 14 on summer solstice. It now looks like I may of been too low on both these predictions!

So far, I don’t think that this was a bad forecast. I did forecast a warmer than normal summer this year, the extent of the heat is always subject to modifications as the summer evolves.

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Look for best beach & boating days to be Wednesday through Sunday this week. I’m not anticipating it to be as hot this week, but the heat and humidity will begin to build as we approach next weekend and beyond. Nevertheless, it will be plenty warm enough to enjoy summer outdoor activities, including beach and boating. Enjoy!

Here’s your detailed summer vacation forecast. Similar to above, I am rating this week a 8 out of 10. After tomorrow, a solid vacation week for sure!

Expect a mixture of clouds and some sunny breaks this afternoon across the area. There have been a few showers that quickly moved through the Boston area. There may be a few more showers from time to time, ahead of a approaching cold front. It will be warm, and still a bit muggy, but nothing like we experienced over the weekend. High temperatures will mainly be in the 70’s.

As the cold front slowly approaches our region tonight, expect showers and thunderstorms to encompass the region from southwest to northeast. Some of this rain is going to contain tropical like downpours, street flooding, and flooding of poor drainage areas.

Periods of rain and showers may persist until early afternoon tomorrow. Thereafter, the rain should slowly move east of our region. It may rain the better part of the day down on Cape Cod tomorrow. Temperatures should remain mainly in the 70’s, without much sun.

We should begin to dry out region wide tomorrow night, with low temperatures mainly in the 60’s.

A drier, cooler trough will penetrate the eastern part of the U.S. this week. However, it appears to me the thrust of this cool air is actually going to be more directed to the south and southwest of New England. Therefore, expect a quick bounce back in temperatures after any brief cooling on Wednesday.

For the period of Wednesday through Sunday, watch for mid summer like conditions, with mainly sunny skies, and temperatures in the 80’s through Friday. As we approach the weekend, it could turn even warmer, with temperatures either approaching or surpassing 90 degrees for both Saturday and Sunday, with increasing levels of humidity.

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next blog, I will recap our sultry weather we experienced in July. I will also have my full outlook as to what we should expect for August. I will also have your new beach and vacation forecast. In the meantime, if your air conditioner were to break, a cold compress will also help cool you off!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It’s Gonna Be A Scorcha! 7/15/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! It was a hot one, with close to 90 on Saturday, and eclipsing it with a high temperature of 91 degrees in Boston, on Sunday. This was the third such occurrence in Boston so far this summer. All in all, it was a great weekend to be up in the mountains, or at the beach!

Wow, it has it been a warm July so far in Boston! At the midway point, we’re running nearly 6 degrees above average. Typically, this isn’t such a big deal. However, when you add this on top of the hottest period of the year anyway, then we’re talking toasty times indeed!

So far, 2019 has featured somewhat benign weather patterns for us here in Boston. There hasn’t been any precipitation nor temperature records broken to speak of. Temperatures have averaged close to normal, and while we’ve had our share of rain, it hasn’t been anything excessive.

Although folks who live in Plymouth, Ma. & the Cape may beg to differ, where between 2 and 5″ of rain fell in a very short period of time Thursday morning! This was an isolated event. Still, if your community was the one that got hit, there’s nothing minor about 5″ of rain!

While I don’t see any widespread heavy rains in our future, there’s always the possibility of intense thunderstorms this time of year dropping isolated heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms are an important source of precipitation this time of year, across much of New England.

In fact, the full “Thunder” moon will be rising in the eastern sky tomorrow evening. Native American Indians named it this because July is the peak month for thunderstorm activity here in New England. As the remnants of Barry passes through New England on Thursday, there could be a few scattered thunderstorms, along with tropical downpours to validate this.

Whatever happened to “Barry”? According to NOAA, Barry briefly achieved hurricane status before making landfall on Friday. Dry air in upper levels of the atmosphere prevented Barry from intensifying into anything stronger. In fact, computer models overestimated the amount of rainfall from Barry, with many areas receiving a very manageable 4 to 6″ of rain.

Judging by the ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and along the east coast, I believe we will be dealing with several more tropical storms and hurricanes as we head deeper into the season. Historically, hurricane season doesn’t really get going until August, and quickly ramps up peaking in mid September or so.

Speaking of warm water, I was able to sneak away for a very brief visit to my sister’s house in North Falmouth yesterday. It was not all fun and games, as I had to perform a quick repair on a stack washer / dryer recently delivered. After a successful repair, we headed down to Old Silver Beach for a few hours of rest & relaxation!

While there, I ventured into the water to get my feet wet. Wow…this could of been the warmest water I have ever experienced at this time of the year. I typically do not feel water this warm until mid August. By my estimation, we’re running a good month ahead of schedule!

I would estimate the temperature at around 77 degrees! Granted, this is Buzzard’s Bay, and is protected from open ocean, but still, this raises concerns with me as we approach peak hurricane season.

It goes without saying that New England is way overdue for a major hurricane to strike the region. Aside from Bob back in 1991, the last hurricane to have a major impact on our region was way back in 1960, when Hurricane Donna battered southeastern New England with 100 MPH winds, and flooding rains. Looking back at the records, we have not had this long of a gap in recorded history, without a some kind of a hurricane strike.

I’m not saying that this will be the year, but with ocean temperatures so warm off our coast, it seems as good a year as any to break the quiet stretch. Due to the rapid growth and development along our shoreline, a hurricane impacting our coastline these days would be catastrophic cost in structural damage.

We won’t even talk about if a storm like the The Great 1938 hurricane were to hit. That storm is still considered as the worst storm to ever hit New England in recorded history. Over 600 people drowned in Providence, R.I. due to storm surge, and Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Ma. had a wind gust to 186 M.P.H. before the anemometer broke!

As mentioned above, the weather so far in 2019 has been quite benign. This may begin to change beginning later this week. No hurricanes just yet, but things are about to get a little crazy in the temperature department! If you are a fan of summer (and I know who you are), get ready to be treated to a blast of summer not seen in these parts since, last year!

So far, Boston has reached or eclipsed 90 degrees just three times this summer. By the time this stretch of hot weather ends, we could be sitting at about 10 times!

We know July is going to be a hotter than normal month. The next question I have, much like last year, is what’s going to happen in August this year?

Last year, I thought August was going to cool off. Not only did it not cool off, but it actually turned out to be the hottest August in recorded history in Boston, eclipsing the hottest August on record just the year before!

Computer models are indecisive at this point. NOAA is forecasting for it to remain much warmer than normal, possibly right through until the end of the year. Latest computer models tweeted by Dr. Judah Cohen suggests the Greenland Block reestablishing itself as we head towards the end of July and the start of August.

In August, this would mean seasonably warm temperatures, with comfortable levels of humidity. At this point, I’m a bit skeptical. If this does not pan out, we could roast for the third year in a row here in New England, and threaten the 20 day threshold of 90 degree temperatures for a second year in a row. My outlook for August comes out two weeks from today. So stay tuned!

Now for your beach and boating forecast. I am rating this week yet another 9 out of 10! If it wasn’t for the threat of a few thunderstorms on Thursday, it would easily be rated a 10 out of 10. Best beach and boating days look to be today, tomorrow, Wednesday, then Friday through Sunday.

If you can be close to the ocean next weekend, I would highly recommend it! Another spot for cooler temperatures would be camping up in the mountains, where it may be 10 degrees cooler. Still, that means near 90 instead of 100!

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. I am rating this week a 9 out of 10. Expect sunny and slightly less humidity levels for the rest of today. A fine beach day if that’s where you are. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the lower 80’s.

Look for clear and comfortable weather overnight, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Watch out for increasing heat for both Tuesday and Wednesday. A southwest wind will begin transporting higher temperatures along with moderate levels of humidity. High temperatures may touch 90 tomorrow, and certainly a little above on Wednesday. Also be on the lookout for the full “Thunder” moon rising to our east tomorrow evening!

Onshore winds, and the remnants of Barry will traverse through New England on Thursday, and Thursday evening. While temperatures may be lower, mainly in the 80’s, humidity levels will be higher, and there’s also the risk of a few thunderstorms and tropical downpours throughout the day.

After this system moves away, a southwest flow should reestablish itself from Friday through Monday. This could lead us to the hottest weekend of the summer, with high temperatures in the low 90’s on Friday, and between 95 and 100 degrees on Saturday and Sunday, with high levels of humidity. Saturday could indeed be the hottest day of the summer with highs near 100 degrees. It’s going to be HOT! Head to the beaches, pools and lakes!

A stronger cool front will begin to approach New England sometime next week to break the heat wave. It remains to be seen how far south the cooler weather penetrates. Computer models are showing a cool down, which will be welcome news for many!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a look what might be in store for us for the rest of the summer. I will also have a new beach, boating and vacation forecast! In the meantime, if you are a lover of summer, this is your time to shine! Enjoy!

Please remember to keep your pets & the elderly sufficiently cool during this heat wave!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

We’re Going To Fry In July…7/8/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their long 4th of July holiday weekend! I’m happy to report the forecast finally lived up to its expectations! Other than a brief interruption later Saturday, the weather could not of been any more spectacular to celebrate the holiday!

As I do every week, I like to review the weather from the previous week and weekend. It was quite a beautiful week for vacationers! While local sea breezes kept it a bit cooler along the coast, inland areas managed 3 to 4 days of 90 degree temperatures, which would classify it as an official heat wave.

Boston managed to barely stay below the threshold, officially not reaching 90 degrees at Logan Airport until Friday, July 5th. For the most part, humidity levels were held in check most of the week.

This all changed on Saturday, when temperatures soared up into the mid 90’s, with outrageous levels of humidity! Later in the day, severe thunderstorms developed, and tracked right through the city of Boston.

No doubt, the high dew point temperatures added fuel to the thunderstorms, resulting in nearly two inches of rainfall in many communities.

I was beyond startled when an intense lightning bolt struck not too far away from me, as I was watching the storm from the doorway of my store. I knew the storm was right on top of me, as the clap of thunder which immediately followed, sent everyone scurrying for shelter!

Sunday dawned with much lower levels of humidity, sunny skies, and pleasantly warm temperatures.

Overall, I would rate this holiday weekend a near perfect 10! It just doesn’t get much better than that for beach goers, outdoor cookouts, and firework displays!

So it looks like summer has indeed arrived! So far, it’s panning out according to how I thought it would. My worry now is that we could be looking at a similar summer pattern unfolding as last summer. eaning cool start, and hot finish!

For those who love hot weather and summer outdoor activities (many), I have some very encouraging news for you! Latest computer models are developing a very summer like weather pattern for the eastern part of the U.S. including us here in New England, for the balance of July.

You may say, Pete, it gets hot in July, what’s the big deal? The big deal is that it is hot in July, anyway. Statistically, this is our hottest month of the year here in Boston. When NOAA is predicting values that are hotter than our normal temperatures for July, at the hottest time of the year, you take notice!

Last week I predicted a fairly average July on the way. After looking over the latest computer information, we can take that forecast, and throw it into the trash. My original call was for between 3 and 5 days of 90 degree temperatures here in Boston.

We’ve already had 2 of them. At this rate, and from what I’m seeing on the computer models, we can add another 6 to 8 days of 90 degree temperatures! Yes, that means the month could exceed 90 degrees 8 to 10 times here in Boston!

My final call on 90 degree days in Boston was for between 10 and 14. At this point, we should be preparing for the higher end number on that scale, if not even exceeding it.

I know this is a flip flop from last week, when I said we could see the lower end of this scale, but this is how you have to closely monitor the patterns this time of the year, as the true summer pattern is only now emerging.

Earlier, computer models were insisting the Greenland block was going to persist. As it turns out, the block is not going to diminish entirely, but change its configuration.

Troughs of low pressure (cool & unsettled) are going to develop across the Alaska and the Pacific northwest. This in turn is going to help build a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) across the eastern part of the United States. Think back to the garden hose effect I discussed a few weeks ago!

This, in conjunction with the unseasonably warm ocean temperatures presently off our coast, will result in a very warm to hot stretch of weather for many of us here in New England, for the period of July 10th through the 27th. I see no reason why this pattern would deviate heading into August, either.

As has been the case for the past several years now, it would also not shock me if this warm pattern that’s settling in, persists deep into the upcoming fall.

So I’m all in on the warm card now, but I never was touting cool, either. I was fairly confident a warm summer was on the way. The only question was just how warm was it going to get? The answers are now becoming more clear, as the summer pattern emerges.

Some brief world wide weather / geologic events. Mammoth Mountain in California continues its ski season, they say possibly into August! After more than 700″ of snowfall last winter, the ski season out there is like the energizer bunny!

On the flip side, Alaska experienced it’s warmest temperatures on record last week. Anchorage hit its all time record high temperature on July 4th at 90 degrees! Interesting Boston hit its all time record high temperature of 104 degrees also on July 4th, way back in 1911.

Terrible earthquakes and aftershocks in the interior section of southern California last week, near Ridgecrest. Had this 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit a major urban areas such as Los Angeles, a natural catastrophe would of been the outcome. As it was, there was still plenty of damage. Thoughts and prayers go out for folks affected by this massive quake.

Now for your beach and boating report. I am rating this week another 9 out of 10. Best beach days look to be today through Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and most of Friday if planned right.

The days to monitor for thunderstorm activity looks to be Friday, then a slight risk later Sunday, or at night. Neither day is anticipated to be a washout, but pay attention to local forecasts, and keep an eye to the sky!

Now for your weekly summer vacation and outdoor activity forecast. I am rating this week another 9 out of 10!

Expect lots of sun and warm temperatures this afternoon. There may be a light sea breeze keeping it cooler at the beaches, otherwise expect temperatures to be in the mid 70’s at the beaches, and low to mid 80’s inland.

Watch for fair and warm weather overnight, with lows generally in 50’s and 60’s.

For the period of tomorrow through Thursday, expect warm to hot weather, with a good amount of sun each day. Temperatures will be close to 90 five miles away from the beaches tomorrow and Wednesday, and close to 90 everywhere on Thursday.

Humidity levels will be moderate each day, but will become increasingly uncomfortable towards Thursday and Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms will threaten the region on Friday. Though this activity typically happens later in the day, computer models are hinting they could move through earlier, rather than later. This activity could linger into the first half of Friday evening, then slowly diminish late at night. Again, a washout is not anticipated

There could be some early morning clouds, and even a few showers towards the Cape early Saturday. Do not be dismayed. From what I can see, skies should clear, and it should turn into a sunny and very warm day, with highs generally between 86 and 92 degrees.

After a brief break on Saturday, humidity levels may begin to increase Sunday. This, along with temperatures approaching or exceeding 90 should make this a great day to head to the beach! Any thunderstorm activity appears to wait until night, if they happen at all.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new summer vacation forecast…I hope the good trend continues! I may also chat a bit about some tropical activity brewing. Barry may develop in the Gulf of Mexico, but will not be threat to us here in New England.

In the meantime, as Eric Fisher just tweeted out, enjoy the “cool” weather this week…this could be just a preview as what’s to come!

Thanks for reading!

Pete