The Wait Was Worth It! 7/1/19

Hello! Happy July! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Unfortunately, the weather was not ideal for many with outdoor activities.

Saturday was oppressive, with sultry levels of humidity. Early morning thunderstorms awoke many Saturday morning. There was a brief break during the day, before more torrential downpours, gusty winds and hail blew through many locations later in the afternoon.

My sister Pam reported to me that a severe thunderstorm tracked through the seacoast region of New Hampshire late Saturday night, with some damage. This was a bit of surprise, as most of the activity was to have ended by then.

I must admit, Sunday was supposed to be the more unsettled day of the two, but the Saturday storms popped up on the computer models much later after I made my initial forecast on Monday.

Like I have mentioned many times, the weather changes, sometimes rapidly. I do the best I can with the weekly forecast, but once I make it, the weather is already changing. Timing issues and changing weather patterns lead to a less reliable forecast beyond 72 hours.

A vigorous area of upper level energy, or atmospheric spin, dove down across southern New England from Quebec on Sunday. This upper level storm featured very cold air aloft.

As I mentioned in the blog last week, these storms in the summer can bring very dark clouds, loud thunder, vivid lightning, gusty winds, torrential downpours, and hail! All of which was reported across eastern Massachusetts yesterday!

You may have been fooled thinking it was going to be a glorious day on Sunday, with the morning starting out with brilliant sunshine, and cobalt blue skies.

In this type of pattern, the sun is our worst enemy! As the sun heats up the land, the warm air rises, encountering the cold temperatures aloft.

As the air rises, it expands and condenses, forming dark clouds, eventually leading to showers and thunderstorms. Violent updrafts of wind can send raindrops high into the atmosphere, which can freeze forming hailstones. When the hailstones become too heavy they fall to earth.

I think we’ve all had enough inclement weather this past spring! While we did have some nice days, it will mostly be remembered for relentless bouts of showers and chilly weather.

The unusual storms of this past weekend capped off a very wet month of June, with Boston recording over 5″ of rain. The storm Saturday dumped over an inch and a half of rain at Logan Airport alone…in less than 30 minutes! It was fitting end to a very unsettled three month stretch from April through June.

Temperatures remained chilly through the balance of the month, but a late rally towards the end of the month may of tipped us to a slightly above average here in Boston. Aside from the thunderstorm activity this past weekend, it was a pretty non eventful month around here.

I was chatting with my sister Val the other night how June is a overrated summer month. I totally agree. Like people expecting severe cold and deep snows in December, many are under the impression that June brings hot & dry weather. Nothing could be further from the truth!

As I have mentioned before, ocean temperatures play a major role in our summer weather patterns. The ocean really doesn’t even begin warming up until the middle of July around here. Therefore, our warmest temperatures typically wait until July and August to settle in around here.

We have now entered the month for Boston to shine in summer weather! July is typically our hottest month of the year. Our average high soars to the low 80’s, and remains there until the middle of August. Last July fully lived up to this billing.

It was last year on this date that the temperature suddenly spiked into the lower to mid 90’s in Boston with high levels of stifling humidity. Boston then proceeded to experience one of its hottest and muggiest summers on record, with 23 days of 90 degree plus weather extending through September.

Will we see a similar fate this year? Through June 30th of last year, Boston had only received one 90 degree day. This year we have zero. Does a slow start foretell how hot it’s going to be? Not always. Just last year we got off to a slow start, but ripped off 22 days of 90 degree weather from July 1st on.

However, this year seems different. While the battle between hot and cool will continue for much of the country, temperatures appear to be trending slightly cooler for New England. I’m expecting some hot weather this summer, just not to the degree of last year.

I explained this in my summer forecast. I’m expecting this summer to be half as hot as last year. Still, that would give us between 10 and 14 days of 90 degree weather, which is actually closer to our average. looking at the latest computer models, we could be looking at the lower end of that scale this year.

Back in 2015, Boston did not hit 90 until July 19th. We then went on to reach ninety 14 times the rest of the summer. That’s quite the comeback! Though not as extreme, I’m expecting something similar this year.

Looking at the long range computer data, July is certainly looking cooler than last year. Though it’s going to be a warm to hot this week, long range data is pointing towards another cool down as we head towards the middle of the month.

No worries! A cool down this time of the year typically means very pleasantly warm temperatures. Plenty warm enough to go to the beach!

So with all this in mind, let’s go with a fairly average July this year, possibly tipping slightly above, but nothing too crazy. I’ll go for 3 to 5 days with 90 degree temperatures, which is close to the average.

After such a wet spring, I’m expecting a slightly drier than normal month for a change. Overall, I believe you will find this July to be the most pleasant month of the year!

Now for your beach and boating forecast. I am rating this week a 9 out of 10…Yahoo!!! Just in time for festive holiday activities! Expect great beach & boating weather nearly every day this week, extending into the holiday weekend! Temperatures should be mainly in the mid to upper 80’s at the beaches. At times, there may be some local sea breezes keeping it close to 80.

I don’t see much rain this week. however, an approaching cold front could spark off some afternoon thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday. If we’re lucky, maybe it comes through Saturday night? As mentioned above, timing is difficult from this far out, but computer models are showing some thunderstorm activity at some point next weekend. Check in with local forecast, and keep an eye to the sky!

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. Similar to above, I am rating this week a 9 out of 10! Expect a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of today, with high temperatures ranging from around 84 inland to 74 along the coast, with an afternoon sea breeze.

Tonight will feature some clouds, with just the slightest chance of a shower or two later on. No wash out is anticipated. Low temperatures will be seasonable, in the lower 60’s.

Southwest winds tomorrow will push temperatures up into the mid to upper 80’s across the region tomorrow, including the beaches. Watch for increasing levels of humidity as well.

Watch for similar weather for Wednesday, perhaps even a touch warmer, with some communities approaching 90 degrees. It will also become more humid, feeling very much like summer. The only relief may be felt at the beaches, where local sea breezes, may keep temperatures 10 degrees cooler?

Near perfect weather conditions are expected for towns celebrating with fireworks on July 3rd. Though there may be a slight haze, the chances of rain is near zero, and winds should not be a factor.

Expect near perfect summer weather for Thursday…Happy 4th of July! Watch for triple H weather, which means hazy, hot & humid conditions. Temperatures should hover around 90 across most of the region. however, light sea breezes along the coast may keep temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler within 5 miles of the ocean.

A slight haze in the air could hinder some firework displays, otherwise, expect warm and humid weather Thursday night, with lows only dropping to near 70.

Look for more of the same weather on Friday, with 90 or even a bit higher inland, with slightly cooler temperatures near the coast with light sea breezes. The moral of the story, if you want to escape the heat, head for the beach!

Hot weather may continue into at least Saturday. As mentioned above, a cool front approaching the region may spark some afternoon thunderstorms later Saturday or Saturday night.

A second surge of cool air may trigger another line on Sunday. Timing is not great, but I do believe it will be the late afternoon variety of summer storms, and much of the day will be rain free.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your new beach and boating forecast, as well as your summer vacation forecast. I will also take a look at the tropics. In the meantime, they say good things come to those who wait…Happy Summer!

~~Happy 91st Birthday to my mom…today!~~

~Wishing everyone a safe & happy Independence Day!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Warmer Times Ahead! 6/24/19

Hello! Happy summer! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Saturday was a interesting weather day here in eastern Massachusetts! Via social media, I saw many amazing pictures and videos of the hail and amazing cloud formations! Thanks for all who shared!

Sunday was a spectacular early summer day, with 100% of the possible sunshine, a slight breeze, and temperatures which warmed to between 85 and 88 degrees across the region.

Because we had a west wind, temperatures were actually warmest right at the beaches. The reason for this is that a west wind is a down slope wind, blowing from the Berkshires to the coastal plain. As the air travels towards the coastal plain, it expands and warms!

Many friends and family were asking me why the sky looked so turbulent on Saturday. The day began bright and sunny, but what followed in the afternoon could only be described as something out of the scene from Poltergeist.

What was the cause of the turbulent black clouds, hail, gusty winds, and in some cases torrential downpours? A very unusual pocket of very cold air aloft digging down from southern Canada, migrated its way across New England Saturday afternoon. As it turned out, the coldest air was located across eastern Massachusetts.

Cold air aloft this time of year, always spells trouble! As the sun quickly heats up the land early in the day, the heat begins to rise rapidly into the atmosphere. When it encounters the cold air aloft, the air quickly destabilizes, causing billowy cumulus clouds to develop. As the heat continues to rise during the afternoon, these cumulus clouds continue to grow into cumulonimbus clouds, eventually forming popcorn like showers and thunderstorms across the region.

Not everyone received them. But those who did, reported marble sized hail, even briefly turning the ground white in some locations! The hail forms from violent updrafts and downdrafts of wind, sending the water droplets high up in the atmosphere, where the temperature is icy cold.

After multiple freeze, thaw cycles, the hailstone will eventually fall to earth! This is why if you ever cut a hailstone in half, you would see it looks like an onion!

After work, I took a quick trip up to Millennium Park to check out the cloud formations. Not only was I treated to some incredible cumulus clouds off to my east, but there was also a fireball sunset happening at the same time to my west!

Last Monday, I posted my final summer forecast. Looking over the latest computer information, I see no reason to make any changes. The final call is for between 10 and 14 ninety degree days this summer in Boston. This would make it a cooler summer than last year, but close to an average summer this year overall.

I also mentioned that this is a slow brewing summer. Meaning it will be delayed, but not denied! We have yet to hit 90 degrees in Boston this year. Yes, a slow start typically yields less number of times we hit 90. This is reflected in my forecast. However, this does not mean we are in for a cool and rainy summer!

I mentioned that the perfect mix of summer heat from the south, could mix with frequent modified cool air masses from Canada resulting in quite a pleasant summer this year here in New England!

It’s not surprising that the warmer times ahead line up very well with the astronomical first day of summer, which arrived this past Friday. In more years than not, real summer warmth waits until summer solstice to arrive here in eastern New England.

One of the biggest reasons for this is latent heating. It takes longer for the oceans to warm up than the land mass off the New England coast during spring. Therefore, early hot weather is often times muted and delayed by cool ocean breezes.

Later in the summer, especially as we move into mid July and beyond, hot & muggy weather has a much easier time lifting north into New England, especially as the ocean temperatures rise up into the 60’s and 70’s. Once it settles in, it can take until mid October some years to vacate! This is why some of our best weather here in New England is from July through September!

I see no reason to believe any different this year. With oceans warming, warm to hot weather should have no problem overspreading the east coast, including us up here in Boston. This in conjunction with a receding Greenland block, the sustained warm weather should arrive in earnest by July 10th or so, and should continue through September.

The difference this year is that I do not believe the Bermuda High is going to be as expansive, nor as strong as last summer. This means at least for us here in New England, we should receive more relief from the oppressive humidity than what we experienced last summer, with cool fronts occasionally sweeping down from eastern Canada. This is the theory, anyway!

Speaking of delayed summers, areas of Colorado took this to whole different level this past weekend! Leftover winter patterns actually resulted in a full fledged summertime snowstorm! Steamboat Springs ski resort reported an astounding 2 ft of snow on Friday…on the first day of summer!

Folks ask how this can happen?? Well, a very persistent winter pattern, one which brought near record amounts of cold and snow to much of the west this past winter, refuses to vacate! Sometimes, winter patterns can actually linger through June, even into the first week of summer in some cases, such as this! Also being over 10,000 ft in elevation does not hurt your cause if you want to see snow!

It is very unusual, but not unprecedented! Colorado Rockies have seen snow 12 months out of the year. What was very unusual about this, is that it was very much like a mid winter storm, with so much snow accumulating. This could be another sign of more available water vapor in the atmosphere to help produce such a prolific snowfall for this time of the year.

At this time of the year, it’s possible to talk about snowstorms in one part of the country, and hurricanes in another! Hurricane season began on June 1st, and runs until November 30th. So far, activity has been very quiet in the Atlantic, and the Pacific for that matter.

This does not mean we can let our guard down! It’s very early in the season! Typically, hurricane season does not get going until August, peaking around September 10th.

Early signs are indicating possibly a below average year form tropical development. Of course, computer models said the same for last year, only to have some of the most intense hurricanes on record develop, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. Remember the catastrophic category 5 Michael last season?

Much like last year, computer models are indicating that we are under a weak to moderate El Nino in the southern Pacific Ocean (warmer than normal ocean temperatures off South America). In typical years, El Nino’s tend to diminish hurricane development. However, as we have learned, there’s nothing typical to global weather patterns in recent years!

Therefore, I’m going with another fairly active season in the Atlantic, developing later in the season, with between 8 and 12 named storms, 3 to 5 hurricanes. Out of those hurricanes, I’m expecting one or two of these to become major storms. This doesn’t sound like a lot, but remember, it only takes one storm to inflict billions of dollars worth of damage in any one location.

It’s too difficult to say whether New England will be affected with any tropical storms this season. With the given pattern coming up, I would say there is a 40% chance, but not as strong of a signal as last summer.

Of course this will probably be the year when we do get hit, now that I have said that. Nonetheless, I will be on the lookout for any threats as we move deeper into the season!

Now for your beach and boating forecast. This is going to be a better week than last week. Expect warmer summer like weather this week, with good beach and boating days today, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, then again sometime later in the weekend, but timing is still undetermined with that.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Better, but still not completely in the clear!

Expect a continuation of beautiful weather this afternoon, with sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs should make it up into the 80’s west of Rt 128, but cool back into the lower 70’s along the coast this afternoon with a sea breeze. In addition, you may notice some increasing clouds later today, which may yield a colorful sunset?

Watch for increasing clouds overnight. A moist flow off the ocean may induce some fog to develop across coastal locations and Cape Cod. It will become a bit more humid, with lows generally in the 60’s.

Tuesday will be warm and humid. A warm front will be approaching our area. As this front approaches, expect an area of showers and thunderstorms to cross much of New England, especially anytime after 11 AM into mid to late afternoon. During this time frame, we should all get wet!

After a murky start, skies should at least become partly sunny on Wednesday. It will turn warm and humid, with highs generally in the low to mid 80’s.

For the period of Thursday through Saturday, expect warm to hot weather, with temperatures ranging from between 85 and 90 degrees. A disturbance moving through our area may result in a few showers or thunderstorms later Thursday, but no washout is anticipated. It will be on the muggy side, so looks like we’ll have to crank up those air conditioners! Watch for areas of fog along the south coast and Cape during the overnights and early morning during this time period.

A front will be approaching Sunday. At some point, we may have to deal with a period of showers at some point during the day. Whether it’s earlier in the day or later, could make a difference at how warm becomes. I’m just not sure on the timing at this juncture. Right now, let’s go for cooler weather arriving on north northwesterly winds, with temperatures in the upper 70’s, and the chance of a period of showers. If the front is delayed, it could mean temperatures in the 80’s, and showers coming through later in the day.

Early next week looks to cool off once again, only to warm up again in time for the 4th?

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your 4th of July holiday forecast! I will also have your beach, boating and vacation week forecast. I will also have a preview of what we can expect for the month of July. In the meantime, time to congratulate yourself…you made it through another rainy New England spring! Onto summer!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer 2019: Delayed…Not Denied! 6/17/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Father’s Day! While Saturday was nearly a perfect 10, the weather yesterday was less than ideal for cookouts and spending time at the beach.

Though not anything real heavy, it was enough to ruin most outdoor plans from Boston points north north. South of Boston, and especially down towards the Cape, the weather held out, with very little rainfall.

It was while I was writing last weeks blog, that I decided to take one more look at computer models before I made my forecast. While not perfect, computer models did indicate a unexpected area of showers crossing much of central New England for yesterday.

While I was not happy that the computer models were correct, I was glad that I wrote the chance of this happening. As it is with many things in life, it’s all about timing!

Good Lord…is it ever going to stop raining?? What’s been most annoying about this pattern we’ve been in since the start of May, is that we have not had any torrential rains, or floods. Instead, it’s one impulse after another every two days or so, with just enough rain to make things damp, but not enough to really cancel anything.

What’s to blame for all this inclement weather over the past two months? Blame it solely on the dreaded Greenland Block! There are other factors, but the block is responsible for about 85% of fouling up our late spring early summer weather.

As you may recall, the Greenland Block occurs when high pressure builds over Greenland. When this occurs, it buckles the jet stream south, and forces unusually cool air down towards the eastern part of the United States. It can also interact with an active subtropical jet stream, steering multiple impulses of moisture either across, or just south of New England.

Why does this seem to occur during spring and early summer,? Some meteorologists have some theories, but at this time it’s still somewhat of a mystery to many.

The running joke in my weather chat group is that there will be no Greenland Block come next fall and winter, and temperatures will be well above average, with no storms to speak of.

Over the past several years, this was no joke, that’s exactly been the case! While we don’t necessarily need a Greenland Block for snow & cold in mid winter, it does help get the winter season off to a good start in November and December.

However, I have mentioned it several times before, if you want a warm, dry summer, it’s best to have this pattern during May and June, rather in July and August! Now, this is still no guarantee that this is how this summer is going to to turn out, but I am seeing some good signs as we head into the start of astronomical summer in a few days!

Since my first summer outlook, back on May 27th, I have been doing extensive research in trying to figure out exactly what our summer has in store for us this year.

If you recall, I have implemented a two stage seasonal forecast. One forecast about a month before the astronomical date. Then a follow up update right around the arrival of the solstice or equinox.

While there’s no guarantee, it gives me a chance to study more information, and look over latest computer data. In recent years, computer models are having a more difficult time resolving seasonal outlooks. Case and point, was last winter.

As you recall, many computer models were forecasting a severe winter for the east coast. The end result could not of been any more far off from that prediction. In a absolute disastrous forecast, I took the bait what the models were showing, and subsequently went down with the ship. By the time I realized that the forecast wasn’t going to verify, it was too late to change it.

I did not feel too upset about then busted forecast. I did my absolute best, and called it as I saw it. While short range forecasting has improved dramatically over the years, seasonal forecasts are still a big gamble in making a correct forecast.

Nonetheless, I will move forward in trying to give everyone my best educated guess for each seasonal forecast. Keep in mind the atmosphere is a dynamic system, changing nearly as quickly as computer data gets processed.

So what’s my latest thinking with this summer? Latest computer models are still at odds as to how they think the summer is going to go. One model thinks it will remain cool and unsettled, while another warms us up, and also dries us out.

I have seen this song and dance from Mother Nature before. Last summer, it was cool throughout June. Computer models were showing the cool weather persisting into the summer, therefore my summer forecast reflected that, calling for a cooler summer.

The pattern suddenly flipped on a dime beginning on July 1st, with hot weather pouring into New England unabated into the beginning of October. The end result was the third hottest summer ever recorded in Boston, with 23 ninety degree days, and unprecedented humidity levels.

Looking at all the information I have available, this summer looks somewhat similar to last summer. I believe there will be a change in the weather patterns come late June, and into July that will bring sustained warmer weather to our region, that may continue through September.

Earlier, I was calling for between 12 and 16 ninety degree days in Boston. I’m tempted to keep these numbers, but my gut tells me to slightly scale back theses numbers. The fact of the matter is, 90 degree temperatures have been tough to come by so far this year.

This delayed start could reflect in the final number of times we hit 90 this summer. Therefore, my final forecast for Boston hitting 90 degrees this summer is between 10 and 14 days.

Here’s the bottom line. Should the Greenland Block persist into the summer, we could be looking at a somewhat cooler and unsettled summer, with even less 90 degree days than what I’m thinking.

However, should the block lift, this would allow the southeast ridge or Bermuda High to build along the east coast, allowing for warm to hot conditions to develop along the east coast, including up to Boston.

If this scenario plays out, and this is the one I’m calling for, Boston could indeed be on the higher end of the scale of 90 degree days.

For those worried that this is going to be a year without a summer, I don’t believe you need to worry about this. Much like last summer, I believe that this is a case of delayed, but not denied!

True, it most likely will be a cooler summer than last year, but it’s all relative, correct? Even if we get half the 90 degree days, that’s still pretty close to the average amount Boston sees anyway. Boston has not recorded back to back summers of 20 or more 90 degrees days in recorded history.

What I’m envisioning, is a very pleasant summer on the way. We should see just enough hot weather to satisfy the beach crowd, along with less humidity than what we suffered through last summer.

In addition, some computer models are actually showing drier conditions developing with less rainfall during the heart of the summer. If all things fall into place, it could turn out to be a very memorable summer for all to enjoy!!

Speaking of beach crowd, this will not be an ideal beach week. Unfortunately, we’re still stuck in this awful pattern we’ve been in since May. Best beach & boating days this week should be Wednesday, then again next Saturday and Sunday!

I have much better confidence for a nice weekend coming up, than I had for this past weekend. So that’s the good news! Looking way ahead, we may see some real summertime heat around here as we close out June.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Watch for increasing clouds for the rest of this afternoon. It will be on the warm side, with many locations closing in on 80 degrees.

Expect mostly cloudy weather for tonight through Tuesday. A weak impulse will be tracking south of New England. The heaviest rain should remain to our south, but the northern shield could pass through southern New England with some scattered showers from time to time.

Clouds may linger into tomorrow evening, but it looks dry for evening activities.

After a murky start, skies should partially during Wednesday. A weak disturbance may yield an isolated shower, but no heavy rain is anticipated.

No weather problems are anticipated Wednesday night, with just a few clouds around. Temperatures will be on the mild side, with lows close to 60.

After some early sun on Thursday, watch for increasing clouds during the day. A more vigorous storm system will be approaching the region late in the day. If it arrives early enough, there may be some rain to contend with around the evening commute. Otherwise, expect steady rainfall to spread into the region overnight on Thursday, with low temperatures near 60.

Friday morning may feature areas of heavy rain and possibly some thunderstorms. As the storm pulls away, expect improving conditions during the afternoon. Not sure if the sun comes out, but there’s a chance of pleasant sunset. Happy summer! The summer officially arrives at 11:54 Friday morning!

Now for the good news! I am forecasting a very pleasant weekend on the way, with mainly sunny skies for both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be warm, with highs near 80, and lows in the low to mid 50’s. All under very low levels of humidity!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be keeping a close eye out for hot weather to round out the end of June. I will also have your beach & boating forecast. While not my specialty, I may also talk a bit about our upcoming hurricane season. In the meantime, for those who love summer, your season is about to shine!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

More Summer Thoughts…6/10/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! WOW! It has happened before, but you’ll be hard pressed to see a more gorgeous weekend of weather in your life! There are not enough superlatives to describe the weather of this past weekend!

Back to back “top 10” days is what many in New England enjoyed this past weekend. Whether you were in the mountains, or at the seashore, you were treated to light winds, deep blue skies, low humidity, and very comfortable temperatures. No doubt, this was June weather at its finest!

Could this be the beginning of a new trend? The last time we enjoyed a weekend without rain, we have to go all the way back to St. Patrick’s Day weekend! Incredibly, there has been some rain at one point or another every weekend…or about 12 weekends in a row!

I love looking at pattern trends. I’m a firm believer that once a pattern settles in, it repeats itself over and over again, until it runs its course. This spring had many nice days, but also featured a lot of unsettled, rainy days, mainly over the weekends!

So, with this last weekend dry, and possibly another one coming up, could our fortune be turning? Could the next 10 weekends feature dry, sunny weather? This way of thinking is not out of the question! I am expecting plenty of nice weather on the way this summer!

If anything, some may of complained that it was just a bit too cool for June standards. With some towns dipping down into the 40’s overnight, I would not argue with them. Yet, the majority of folks appreciated the low levels of humidity, and comfortably warm afternoon temperatures.

I have mentioned it many times, June is fickle month! While at opposite ends of the spectrum, it lines up with December in the seasonal journey. While December is the first month of meteorological winter, June is the first month of meteorological summer. In each month, two thirds are still in astronomical fall and spring, respectively.

The two months mimic each other with sensible weather. While we can easily experience winter weather (sometimes harsh), in December, it can also be quite a mild month many years, with any severe cold and snow holding off until after Christmas, or beyond.

The same holds true for June. Leftover chilly air masses from the previous winter, can still wander through northern areas, and even produce snowfall in higher elevations! Here in New England, cold ocean temperatures can mute any significant warm up from reaching New England.

However, this is not always the case. Similar to it getting cold in December, hot weather can occur in June! The weather in June can still be spring like, or decidedly like summer, depending upon the year.

I always carefully watch the weather around the summer solstice. Any type of hot weather around this time, can be a good indicator that hot weather will repeat itself during the course of the summer.

Interesting to note, so far, this June is behaving much like last June. If you recall, last June temperatures ended up near neutral, neither warmer nor cooler than an average, in a typical June.

What was very intriguing was the incredible low dew point temperatures (amount of water vapor in the air) we enjoyed all month. It’s almost like Mother Nature was setting us up for the following 3 months!

Beginning on July 1st, it was all about the heat and unprecedented levels of humidity on Boston! In the end, Boston recorded its third hottest summer on record, with record levels of high dew point temperatures, and days with over 80 degree temperatures.

We also set records for the most overnight low temperatures above 70 degrees. Boston also recorded a whopping 23 days of 90 degree temperatures last summer.

After writing my summer forecast a couple weeks ago, the summer pattern is beginning to come into better focus.

As I mentioned earlier, this June is shaping up to be very similar to last June. Overall, it looks to be a month that will average fairly close to normal. Despite it being on the cooler side for the next week, I believe the last 10 days of the month will see a sharp increase in temperatures, which could lead to our first heat wave of the season?

As has been the case the past several years, look for summer to arrive just about when it normally does. I am expecting it to turn warm to at times hot in July and August, just not as hot as last summer. Warm ocean temperatures hugging the east coast should lead to warmer than normal temperatures in much of New England, for both July and August.

The difference this year is that the expanse of the warm Atlantic Ocean is not as large as last summer, or not as warm. The Bermuda High pressure which torched New England last year, looks like it may be squished a bit to our south, and not encompassing the entire central Atlantic Ocean, such as last summer.

This should lead to a more temperate summer, with not as many 90 degree days. Boston has never recorded back to back summers with 20 or more ninety degree days in recorded history.

With all that being said, a very pleasant summer could be in the offing for us here in New England this year. The perfect equilibrium of warm temperatures and reasonable levels of humidity could make this an even better summer than last year?

My final summer outlook and how many 90 degree days we should expect here in Boston, will be updated in next weeks blog! Check it out!

Before I get to my forecast, I wanted to give a brief weather history segment. Some may remember this historic event. It was 66 years ago yesterday, when the Great Worcester Tornado, devastated the region.

Certain meteorological conditions not common for this region, spawned a unprecedented EF4 tornado, and tore a path through Worcester, not diminishing until it reached Wrentham, Ma.

With wind speeds reaching over 175 mph possibly close to 200 m.p.h., it’s no surprise 94 people lost their lives. The monster tornado was 1 mile wide, and destroyed everything in its path.

I have chatted with some older folks in Roslindale who remembered the violent storm well, and they recall seeing debris from the tornado dropping in the streets around the area, some 40 miles away! Frightening to think that such a storm can and will occur in our region again, at some point in history.

Now for your weekly beach and boating report. No tornadoes, but a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out! Look for the best beach and boating weather to be on Wednesday, then again on Friday and Saturday, and possibly Sunday, too? Late information has led to some uncertainty for Sunday.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week another 7 out of 10. Weighted heavily on the prospects of another fine weekend coming up??

Watch for increasing clouds this afternoon. I’m not expecting rain, but it won’t be as sunny as our previous days. Temperatures should warm up to pleasant levels, to the upper 70’s.

A warm front will be approaching from the southwest overnight. This will lead to showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across the region. It will also turn more humid, with areas of fog. Temperatures will only drop to the lower 60’s.

As the cold front crosses our region early tomorrow, expect more scattered downpours, and even the chance of a thunderstorm. This activity may linger up until midday. As the cold front sweeps across the region, expect the sun to break through the clouds during the afternoon, and lowering levels of humidity. A lovely evening is expected.

Tuesday night will feature clear and dry weather, with lows mainly in the 50’s, to near 60.

Expect a very nice day for Wednesday, with plenty of sun, and reasonable levels of humidity. High temperatures will be warm, let’s go for near 80!

Another fast moving storm system will be approaching form the southwest Wednesday night. Clouds will be on the increase, with more scattered rain, and possibly some squally weather later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A washout is not expected on Thursday. There may even be some sunny breaks during the afternoon.

After the cold front sweeps offshore later Thursday, a much better day is expected on Friday. Leftover upper level energy could spark a scattered shower, but no heavy rain is expected. Temperatures should be mild to warm, with highs in the upper 70’s.

Looking at the latest data, there are now some unexpected complications for Sunday. Saturday looks like a splendid day, with sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs will be near 80.

Unfortunately, latest computer models are now accelerating a front towards New England. If this is true, Sunday could turn unsettled, with clouds and showers moving into New England. This is not set in stone! I’m just calling it as I see it at this time! Computer models could revert back to the mainly sunny and warm forecast for Sunday. I hope it turns out better than expected.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my final updated summer forecast. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, I know it’s said quite often, but try to be grateful for each day, as there’s no guarantee for tomorrow.

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Birthday tomorrow, to my most loyal fan…my sister, Pam!!~

Happy Father’s Day to my beloved Dad up in heaven, and to all the great Dad’s out there!

Will June Sing A Different Tune? 6/3/19

Hello! Welcome to June! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! While not perfect, the weather was acceptable for many outdoor events to go according as planned. Though on the cool side, showers and thunderstorms either did not materialize, or fell late at night, after most activities had ended.

I was so happy for my niece Nicole, who graduated high school yesterday. Overall, it was a nice day for the outdoor ceremony. Temperatures warmed up close to 80 as the sun broke through the clouds, but there was a ventilating breeze, making it feel more comfortable. Dark clouds threatened later, but the storm passed well to the northwest of our location.

I apologize for the overly optimistic forecast for last week! The 8 out of 10 should of been more like a 3 out of 10! While not a washout, annoying showers, fog banks, chilly east winds made last week a very fitting end to a very unsettled May!

So it’s no surprise May finished with below normal temperatures, and above normal rainfall. In fact, Boston recorded at least some rain an astounding 24 out of 31 days! You would think with so many rainy days, precipitation would be off the charts…not so!

All that rain only added up to only a little bit above average from what we normally see in May. And as for temperatures, it took a chilly last day of the month to tip the scale to below average. Overall, it was a very unsettled, and at times cool month of May.

When you add up all the ups and downs for the month, it turned out to be quite an average May for Boston. It may of not rained a ton, but it certainly wasn’t a very sunny month. It was a gloomy, grey May for sure!

It was also cooler than last May, with only 3 days recording 80 degree temperatures. Last year we had 11!

Overall, the 3 months making up meteorological spring of March, April and May, ended up a little warmer and wetter than normal here in Boston.

What struck me about this spring was all the vibrant colors we had! I believe all the precipitation we received this past winter, then continuing on into the spring, along with the cooler temperatures, helped bring out a very lush spring. All the trees, flowers and grass appear to be so healthier than ever!

One quick note, this was the first below average month in Boston since last November. Could this be the start of a cooler trend heading into this summer? I will look into this possibility shortly.

Hard to believe it’s June, already! Time for summer, right? Well…not so fast! While meteorological summer has arrived, technically, it’s still spring until June 21st. On that day at 11:54 AM, the summer solstice arrives.

I was speaking with my brother in law Jae yesterday, and he was insisting that summer is here. He didn’t want to hear anything about the summer solstice. It was sunny and warm out, who was I to argue?

In part, he’s right. More times than not, June is warm. Warm enough to make it feel like summer. No doubt, it certainly looks like summer here in southern New England.

However, this is not always the case. Believe it or not, it has been quite a cool spring up in northern New England. So cool, that they were still skiing at Killington ski resort in Vermont, up until just yesterday! How about that? Skiing in June!

If you look on the web cams, not only is there still snow on the trails, but many of the trees still haven’t even blossomed yet! No doubt, when you go up in elevation, the climate is much cooler.

This is why June can still be a bit of a sketchy month. Two thirds of the month is technically still spring. Leftover winter patterns can still influence our climate here in New England. In addition, ocean temperatures are still recovering from the depths of winter. Kind of like recovering from the winter hangover!

From what I see at this point, this June looks to be somewhat of a continuation of May. It looks slightly cooler than average, with above normal rainfall once again, though not as many rainy days as May! This is true especially for the first two weeks of the month. Thereafter, we may see a more summery pattern settle in around the solstice?

I get it. After such an inclement May, folks are itching for real summer weather to finally arrive. While it looks warmer this week, I still see no sustained real heat here in Boston, for at least the next two weeks. Remember, it took until July 1st for real summer heat to arrive last year!

This is partly due to that pesky Greenland Block I have been talking about since the start of May. Atmospheric Scientist, and seasonal forecast expert Dr. Judah Cohen tweeted this morning that this Greenland Block may now persist well into June now.

The Greenland Block is when high pressure builds over the higher latitudes. When high pressure builds over Greenland, it suppresses the jet stream further south than where you would typically expect it to be. This allows cooler and unsettled weather from Canada to funnel down into the northeastern part of the country, including us here in coastal New England.

I mentioned last week if this Greenland Block persists into this summer, the summer forecast will need to be adjusted. I’m already seeing differences showing up right after I wrote the forecast, that are now showing the possibility of a cooler summer this year.

For one, this Greenland Block that settled in at the beginning of May, means business! It’s resilient, and some computer models are indicating this may persist deep into the summer.

Second, the ocean temperatures have suddenly plummeted off the New England coast. Last year, the ocean temperatures were at record warm levels. All this may suppress the Bermuda High, and not allow excessive heat and humidity to easily flow into New England this summer.

Don’t panic just yet! I’m not cancelling summer! I left the door open in the summer forecast, so I can easily make adjustments as needed. We knew another 2018 summer was highly unlikely to repeat itself this year. Even if it was half as hot as last summer, that would still make this summer an average summer in Boston!

But most people don’t want average!! They want it hot every summer! Well, as I mentioned to Dr. Judah Cohen this morning, we can’t expect every winter to be cold & snowy in Boston, why should it be any different to expect hot summers in Boston every year? Why? Because it doesn’t happen!

I’m not ready to say this summer is going to be cooler…but latest indications are now pointing to possibly a bit cooler than what was said last week.

As a reminder, I went for between 12 and 16 ninety degree days this summer. I will continue to monitor these latest trends, and have my final update the week of the solstice.

Now for your first beach and boating forecast of the summer season! I will rate this week a 7 out of 10! Best beach days look like Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.

As for boating, watch for choppy seas down the Cape Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday, and around Boston points north on Thursday and Sunday. No big storms, just shifty fronts that may stir up the ocean.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Better than last week..I promise!

Look for mainly sunny skies for the rest of today and tomorrow for that matter. Temperatures will be a bit below average for the date, with highs in the upper 60’s.

Watch for increasing clouds later tomorrow as a warm front approaches. There will be a period of rain later tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. Hopefully this front will not get stuck last the one last week.

If the front lifts north of us, expect some sun to break out on Wednesday and Thursday, with a southwest wind. This should help boost temperatures up into the lower 80’s, along with some increasing amounts of humidity. Watch for areas of fog down the Cape.

An approaching front may kick off a few showers and thunderstorms later Thursday, so keep an eye out for that.

Look for a northeast wind on Friday, this will help keep temperatures cooler along the coast, with highs in the upper 60’s. It will be warmer inland, with highs in the 70’s.

Right now, the weekend is looking decent. We may pop back up into the warm air on Saturday, only to cool off with northeast winds again on Sunday. Could be low 80’s Saturday, then back into the 60’s Sunday! Looks mainly dry at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to watch latest trends in our summer patterns. I will also have your new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, here’s hoping for a tune we can all dance to in June!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer 2019: Odds Favor Another Hot One! 5/27/19

Hello! I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday weekend! So far, it has been a stellar one, with lots of sun and mild temperatures on Saturday. As predicted, a fast moving disturbance brought a quick thundershowers Saturday night, but nothing severe.

Last week I mentioned that Sunday would be the cooler of the three days. Chalk that mistake up to a timing error! As it turned out, Sunday was the hotter of the three days! Temperatures soared up into the mid to upper 80’s, with a dry offshore westerly wind. This brought the warm temperatures right to the beaches.

The beautiful weather will continue for the holiday itself, too! However, there will be some adjustments. The change? Temperatures are going to be about 20 degrees cooler today! So if you’re a beach lover, I hope you had a chance to enjoy Sunday.

If not…no worries! We are only at the very beginning of the long summer season!

Memorial Day. Though I don’t mind when folks say it, I’m in the camp of not saying, “Happy Memorial Day.” Other than getting together with friends and family, I don’t see nothing too happy about this holiday.

When I was younger, I looked at Memorial Day as the official start to summer. I loved going to the beach, hanging out with friends, and feasting on barbecue food.

Looking back, I feel somewhat embarrassed at this behavior. I understand I was young, and I didn’t know better, but still, I feel it was disrespectful.

Now that I’m older, I have developed a deep appreciation for the men and women who serve and are serving in our military, to keep our country safe, and sustain the freedom that we enjoy today.

In addition to military, let’s take Memorial Day a step further to remember our police force, firefighters and first responders who place their lives on the line to help keep this society in check.

Tragically, the will to save lives, ultimately costs lives. For this reason, we should remember these people everyday, and never forget the ultimate sacrifice they make to keep us safe!

As mentioned above, Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer. While June 1st is the start of meteorologic summer, we have to wait until June 21st for astronomical arrival of summer, this year. Which is the official start of summer!

Hard to believe, but the time has arrived for my summer forecast!

As it has been for several years now, seasonal forecasts have become more of an educated guess, than something you can take to the bank. This particular summer poses challenges in its own right.

The trouble began last summer. All parameters pointed towards a cooler than normal summer. Everything was on track, until July 1st. At that point, stifling heat and humidity poured into New England, and was relentless for the next three months. That’s all it took…a slight shift in the steering currents, and the wheels fell off the wagon.

Blame it on computer models, ocean temperatures, a ever changing atmosphere, climate change or whatever! Mother Nature runs the show here! Just when you think you have the answers, she changes the questions!

Boston went on to experience one of its hottest summers on record, recording 23 days of 90 degree + temperatures, with humidity never experienced before in recorded history.

From that point moving forward, seasonal forecasts have been somewhat like throwing a dart with a blind fold on. The talk of a cooler fall was a bust, as summer continued unabated until mid October. And we all know what happened with the debacle of this past winter.

Rather than giving up, I will move forward, try to learn from my mistakes, and always do the best that I can.

As I have mentioned in the past, I rate hot summers, as to how many days we reach or eclipse 90 degrees. Typically, Boston receives 14 days in “average” season.

So how do I determine how many 90 degree days we may see in any given summer? Well, it’s not as easy as it seems! This time of year, I like to look at where high pressure is building (hot & dry). I like to call these “bubbles” of heat. I also look at where troughs of low pressure are being persistent (cool & unsettled).

Remember how I spoke of the jet stream a couple weeks ago, acting like a giant hose when you shake it. If you shake it hard enough, big loops will form. The high spot on the loop is the ridge, and the low spot is the trough.

Here’s the tricky part. Last year, it looked like New England would be under the influence of the trough through much of the summer. Then, right around the summer solstice, a major change occurred.

Unexpectedly, the Bermuda High pressure in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean suddenly began to rapidly strengthen. As this began to build westward, it pushed the cool air out of New England, and pumped heat and unprecedented levels of humidity into New England starting on July 1st, well into October.

This year, I’m going to try my best not to get tricked! For whatever reason, we are in a warm weather cycle. Nine out of the last 10 months have featured above average temperatures. The jury is still out for May, but a sudden push of heat here at months end could tip it warm once again!

A very persistent pattern has been stuck in place since last November. This has featured very cold weather out in the western part of the country, very warm in the southeast, with New England straddling between the two, tending warmer than average, at least here in southern New England.

Should this pattern continue into the upcoming summer, we undoubtedly would be looking at another hot summer this year. While here in late May, the heat is being kept at bay to our south, it would only take a slight seasonal shift to the jet stream to the north, and we too will be baking along with the rest of the east coast this summer.

That, and along with the unseasonable warm ocean temperatures expected to develop along the east coast once again, should help with transporting high levels of heat and humidity back into New England again, this summer.

Keeping all this in mind, I’m expecting a summer which would feature at the minimum average, to most likely hotter than normal temperatures this year in Boston.

Therefore, I am expecting Boston to reach or exceed 90 degrees between 12 and 16 times this summer. Yes, this is somewhat cooler than last summer, but that could of been one in 30 year summer we had…it was very hot!

I’m expecting the Bermuda High to be more suppressed this summer. Meaning, cool fronts will have a easier time sweeping across New England, delivering more frequent refreshing air masses than last summer.

Because we are going to be close to the boundary of hot and cool, we will be dealing with episodes of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the first part of the summer. Thereafter, we may tend to dry out heading into the second part of July and August. No drought is anticipated this summer.

Things to monitor. If the Greenland Block persists deeper into the summer, all bets could be off for a hot summer. This would not necessarily be a bad thing. Though it would be cooler, it could result in frequent refreshing air masses sweeping in from Canada, with many daytime high temperatures in the 70’s and 80’s, not 80’s and 90’s.

On the flip side, if the Greenland Block diminishes, much like what happened last year, the Bermuda High would strengthen and build west along the east coast. If this occurs, we could be looking at a similar summer as to what we had last year.

All these things really still need to be ironed out. Many times, I can’t see these signs showing up until the summer solstice arrives on June 21st. Therefore, I will be implementing a new policy of updating my seasonal forecast when the solstice arrives, this goes for summer and winter.

I once told everyone that once I make a forecast, I stick with it and do not change it. However, in light of what happened last winter, things change too much between now and the solstice. I will need to take another fresh look at the patterns at that point. For now, this is my best educated guess at our summer forecast. I hope you enjoyed reading!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. Next week, we begin our summer activity forecast! I will rate this week a 8 out of 10!

Look for splendid weather conditions for the rest of your Memorial Day holiday. Though there will be some clouds from time to time, expect plenty of sunshine, amidst deep blue skies. With onshore winds today, it will be cooler than yesterday, with highs in the upper 60’s at the beaches, and mid 70’s inland.

Watch for increasing clouds tonight, but there will be no rain. Lows will generally fall into the 50’s across the region.

Tuesday’s weather will be going downhill. A storm will be approaching New England and track just south of the region. When this happens, winds will turn east northeast, with cool temperatures. Rain will develop late morning and continue well into the evening, with temperatures dropping into the 50’s, maybe even some upper 40’s!

Wednesday may begin on the damp side, but skies should become partly sunny as the day progresses. Once the sun comes out, temperatures will pop back up into the 60’s.

Rapid changes should bring the warm weather back into the region on Thursday. With southwest winds, temperatures should have no problem warming back into the 80’s. A cold front will be approaching the region in the afternoon, which may bring with it some showers and thunderstorms.

Yet another front will be crossing New England on Friday. This may bring with it another round of showers later in the day. A total washout is not anticipated. It will be a bit cooler than Thursday, with highs in the 70’s.

Right now, I’m liking what I’m seeing for next weekend, for the most part. Saturday should feature brilliant sunshine, with warm temperatures. Highs should reach into the lower 80’s, with light winds.

While Sunday may feature a few more clouds, and an outside risk of a shower, it should be mainly a dry day, with a good amount of sun, as well. Temperatures should be mainly in the upper 70’s and low 80’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your June preview, as well as a review of May. I will have a new beach and boating segment, and also chat a bit more about our summer forecast. In the meantime, I’m not a gambling man, but I like my odds this summer!

~Happy Graduation to my niece, Coco!!!!~

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Living On The Edge! 5/20/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! All in all, the weekend wasn’t too bad. It did not begin that way, though! The wet trend continued on Friday’s, as a few morning showers, blossomed into a soaking afternoon rain.

My cousin happened to be getting married Friday afternoon…in an outdoor wedding! The weather gods must of been on his side, as the skies cleared just in a nick of time!

Outdoor weddings are beautiful, as long as the weather cooperates! I was very happy to see the weather improve, allowing festivities to be carried out as planned. A great time was had by all, but it was touch and go there for a few moments!

As they say, timing is everything! Saturday proved to be a chamber of commerce day, with 100% of the possible sunshine, light winds, and temperatures in the low 70’s.

Sunday featured changeable weather conditions, with a mix of clouds and sun, more muggy, and a round of midday showers. Early evening cleared out once again, allowing for a dry early evening walk at the park, or an outdoor cook out.

Many were so happy to see the midday showers move through the Boston area. This ensured the streak of at least some rain falling on each of every weekend since St. Patrick’s Day weekend, to remain in tact!

While it brings no consolation, many would be surprised to know that rainfall has not been too excessive. In fact, Boston is just running an inch or two above average for the year, and just slightly above for May.

Many times it’s the perception, that distorts the reality when it comes to climate. No doubt, it has been raining a lot! The statistics speak for themselves. I believe it has rained, at least a little, an astounding 76% of the days, since March!

A persistent boundary, dividing cold air to our north, and warm to hot air to our south, continues to generate impulses of moisture tracking through New England. The meteorological term for those who are interested in quasi stationary frontal boundary!

This is a spring phenomenon, which shows up just about every year. This year, the boundary unusually active, and persistent.

These fast moving storms, has resulted in at least a little rain falling in Boston every other day since March. Sometimes, a stronger impulse moves through, resulting in heavier rain such as on Mother’s Day, and this past Friday.

This is all well and good, but many folks want to know when all this nonsense is going to stop!! It seems like Mother Nature can’t decide whether it’s spring, summer, or even winter around here!

No doubt this pattern has been persistent. It settled in around November of last year, and is still going strong! The folks out in the western part of the country must be wondering if winter is there permanently.

Snow continues to fall in the Sierra’s of California, Colorado, Wyoming, and upper parts of the mid west, like Duluth, Minnesota.

I believe Mammoth Mountain has received over 700″ of snow this winter, and still counting! If this continues, the snow may not completely melt until sometime in August!

As I have mentioned before, the jet stream is like a hose when you shake it. Where it dips is called a trough of low pressure (cold & stormy). Where it rises is called a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry).

For the better part of this winter, and now deep into spring, the trough has been out west, and the ridge in the east, particularly the southeast. New England has been caught in the middle, sometimes cool, sometimes warm, as the jet stream oscillates from north to south.

My cousin Jim asked me why this past winter was so lame around here. Unfortunately, this was a loaded question, and I did not have enough time to explain the reasoning thoroughly enough, to him.

In short, the atmosphere played a cute little trick on us. While it appeared that we were in a El Nino (warm north & west / cold south & east), the weather pattern acted more like a La Nina (cold north & west / warm south & east). Once that southeast settled in during November, it has not relinquished its grip.

For reasons too complicated to understand to this weather enthusiast, I look at it as Mother Nature preventing another harsh winter in the urban corridor, because, that’s what she does!

We already had harsh winters in 3 out of the last 4 years. Snowfall was running way above average along the coastal plain.

So whatever the computer models were saying, and all the other signs that pointed to a bad winter, Mother Nature looked at this winter as a correction, to keep the averages in check. After all, Boston averages 44″ of snow per year, not 64″!

Of course there were many scientific reasons. For one, El Nino didn’t develop like I thought it was going to.

Second, the Greenland blocking never developed this winter until May, and by then it was too late. This allowed storms to track west of New England, leaving Boston vulnerable to snow changing to rain events.

Third, the QBO (Quasi Biannual Oscillation) became positive last fall, this supports a southeast ridge, preventing nor’easters from developing. This alone, should of been a warning sign to me that the winter was going to turn out different.

Circling back to the matter at hand, when is this annoying pattern going to break? Unfortunately, I do not see any signs of it breaking down anytime soon!

This means cold in the west, warm in the east. In fact, with summer approaching, the southeast ridge is beginning to flex its muscles. a large bubble of heat will begin building across the southeast this week.

While a northwest flow will cut this heat from reaching New England, areas south of New York City, into the mid Atlantic region and across the deep south is going to experience unprecedented heat for this time of the year. Some locations may reach all time record highs for the month of May!

Meanwhile, locations in Colorado and Wyoming should begin preparing themselves for a Memorial weekend snowstorm, where snow could be measured in feet!

For folks who live in between the two air masses…watch out! Clashing air masses during spring lead to destructive outbreaks of severe weather, including deadly tornado activity! How people live where frequent tornadoes occur, is beyond comprehension!

This massive heat dome is going to have to be dealt with at some point this summer. The cold air to our north can only hold back this heat here in New England for so long.

My concern is, as the summer matures, and the jet stream lifts to our north, the hot and humid air to our south will have no problem overtaking most of New England.

Could we be looking at a second hot summer in a row here in New England? Earlier, I was thinking on the cooler side. But if this pattern persists, forget about it. Warm to hot air will have no problem spreading into New England, resulting in a hotter than normal summer. My final take on these thoughts. will be written in my 2019 summer forecast, just one week from today! So check it out!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I am rating this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect a summery afternoon, with sunshine along with higher levels of humidity. High temperatures should make it into the mid 80’s…our real first taste of summer! Dew point temperatures will also be on the rise, which will make it feel quite muggy outside.

Later today, an approaching cold front will begin tracking across New England. As this cold front presses into the warm and humid air mass, the air will lift, cool & condense into rain showers.

Other factors as cold air aloft will allow these showers to develop into thunderstorms. Some of these storms may turn severe, with vivid lightning, hail, and gusty winds. There’s even an outside chance of a small tornado in some isolated locations. This activity will occur between 7 and 9 PM.

After the front passes, expect cooler and drier air to rush in across New England. Temperatures should fall into the 40’s and 50’s by daybreak. under clearing skies.

I’m liking what I see in the weather pattern this week. For the period Tuesday through Friday, expect mostly to partly sunny days, and clear and cool nights.

There will be some fast disturbances moving through. While I am not anticipating any washouts, a quick passing shower or two can not be ruled out. High temperatures should generally be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s, which about seasonable for this time of year.

For the most part, I’m liking what I see for the Memorial Day holiday weekend. While I do not see any washouts, once again, fast moving disturbances will be tracking close by, so a few showers can not be ruled out.

In addition, an oscillating jet stream will keep us close to cool air to the north, and very warm air to our south. This means temperatures can be 60’s and 70’s one day, and 70’s and even 80’s the next. Right now, I’m thinking warm on Saturday, cooler Sunday, and warm again on Memorial Day itself.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will release my 2019 summer forecast. I will also begin my beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, I hope Mother Nature makes up her mind soon, not a big fan on living on the edge!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

One Can Only Dream…5/13/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their Mother’s Day weekend! The weather on Saturday could not of been any more spectacular. Deep blue skies, light winds, and temperatures close to 70. A top ten day to be sure!

What happened on Mother’s Day can only be described as despicable! A wave of low pressure developed along the old frontal boundary to our south.

As this low pressure passed south of New England, winds turned northeast, dropping temperatures into the low 40’s. Rain developed very early in the day, and did not let up until late last night.

That’s only half the story! Because there was unusually cold air aloft, rain actually mixed with sleet around the Boston area during the height of the storm in the afternoon. One of the latest such occurrences that I can recall!

Some friends on Facebook were commenting that hail was falling. While this was a good observation in noticing this, it was actually sleet falling. Sleet is different from hail because it falls in winter type storms. We do not get sleet in summer.

Sleet falls because there is a layer of cold air in the atmosphere about 5,000 feet up that freezes the rain into a little pellet of ice. If it’s cold enough, these ice pellets can survive the trip to earth and bounce off the surface.

Hail forms in severe or turbulent conditions in the upper atmosphere. Strong updrafts of wind drives raindrops way up into the colder atmosphere where it freezes into a ball of ice.

If it’s turbulent enough, these balls of ice can go through multiple cycles of updrafts and downdrafts, in a freeze thaw cycle. This can grow the hailstone into golf ball, baseball, or even grapefruit size! Hailstones can result in significant property damage if they grow large enough.

Typical hailstone size here in New England is pea size. However, golf ball size have been reported in rare events!

Circling back to yesterday’s atrocious weather, as one traveled or lived in elevation above 1500 ft, snow actually fell! Yes, some locations in western Massachusetts actually had to dispatch snow plows and sanders to treat slippery roads. Berkshire towns such as Blandford and Chester, Ma. received accumulating snow on Mother’s Day!

Last week, I said in my forecast that Mother’s Day could be sunny and nice. I felt bad that this did not work out! As I mentioned, we would be in between two storm systems. It just so happened that one of these storms accelerated, ruining the Mother’s Day forecast.

Timing these storm systems after 5 days is quite a challenge indeed! Weather changes quickly, and needs to be updated on a daily basis, at the very least!

While snow and sleet is a very rare occurrence along the coastal plain in May, it’s not that uncommon for it to snow in higher elevations. There have been several historic high elevation snowstorms during May in New England! Just a few years ago Mt Washington received nearly 3 ft of snow in a Mother’s Day storm!

Shortly, I will explain in my forecast that this is not the last snow event of the season for these areas. In fact, a late season nor’easter will bring widespread snow to higher elevations of northern New England tonight! Even lower elevations could see wet snow overnight and into early tomorrow morning!

While celebrating Mother’s Day with family yesterday, I noticed some family members at their breaking point! They demanded answers as to when the rain and sleet was going to go away, and more importantly, when these darn temperatures are going to warm up!!

After a somewhat milder than average April, May has gone the opposite direction, feeling more like April…or even March! All the while, it has been dreadfully grey for the most part, with rain falling on more than half of the days!

We say it all the time, but spring is the most cruel season here in New England! The Atlantic Ocean, which takes so long to cool off during autumn, also takes so long to warm up in spring. This helps to prevent real summertime warmth from arriving prematurely in much of our region.

Instead, it typically waits until the summer solstice arrives on June 20th or there about. Keep in mind, where are only at mid spring. After a long winter, some folks get very impatient, and expect summer weather to be in full swing once May hits. This is like saying sustained winter arrives in November, when we all know that hardly ever happens.

As I mentioned last week, we are under the influence of a strong Greenland block. Look for this to continue for the balance of May. While there is going to be more rain storms every 3 to 5 days, there is going to be nice days mixed in there as well.

Overall, temperatures are going to be below normal for the remainder of the month, with a few spikes of temperatures reaching the 70’s. Expect the rainy regime to continue, as well.

What implications could this have on our summer weather? Latest seasonal computer models have been released, and if you are a lover of hot and humid weather, you may want to close your eyes! As I mentioned before, I was not sold on the early calls for a very hot summer this year. While no guarantee, computer models have now flipped to a cooler, wetter summer for New England this year.

I’m not totally sold on that solution either! Right now, I’m still sticking with my idea of a average summer on the way. As I get closer to my summer forecast two weeks from today, I will hone in whether I believe this will tick a bit warmer, or possibly even a bit cooler than normal.

I will say this, it’s been very difficult to see cooler than normal summers around here over the last 10 years or so. I believe the last one we had was 2014, and then again back in 2009.

With that being said, I’m sticking to my thoughts a cooler summer than last year. Boston has not received back to back summers with 20 or more 90 degree days in recorded history. If it does happen, I would change my thoughts on climate change, as promised to my brother in law Michael.

My official summer forecast will be written for all to see just two weeks from today!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. In hindsight, last week could of been bumped up to a 7 out of 10. I will give this week 7 out of 10.

Expect cloudy and chilly weather for the rest of your Monday. With an approaching nor’easter, winds will be on the gusty side. It will be cold for this time of the year, with high temperatures only in the upper 40’s.

Rain will be approaching from the south and southwest later today. Overnight, expect stormy weather for this time of the year. Rain, heavy at times, along with fairly strong northeast winds.

Later at night, there may even be some sleet or wet snow flakes mixed in with the rain, even here in Boston. Had this storm developed quicker, and closer to the coast, we would of been looking at a late season snowstorm on our hands.

As it stands now, rain will change to heavy wet snow across much of the interior of New England, especially in areas that are greater than 1000 ft in elevation. Most locations in the Worcester Hills, north central Massachusetts, could see a coating to up to 2″ of wet snow.

As you move north into New Hampshire, especially the higher terrain of the White Mountains and western Maine, this is going to turn into a legit snowstorm, with up to 6″+ of accumulation possible. Less amounts expected in valley locations and along the Maine coast, but still, a couple inches can not be ruled out, with coatings near the coast!

As the storm slowly swirls up into the gulf of Maine Tuesday, wrap around precipitation could keep drizzle and showers around Boston for the first half of the day. Up north, snow will continue in the northern mountains of New Hampshire and western Maine…a wintry scenario up there for sure!

It will be cold and raw tomorrow, with high temperatures only in the mid 40’s! Yes, the heat will need to be turned on, along with sweaters and warm jackets!

As the storm pulls away, expect improving weather conditions beginning tomorrow evening. Skies should begin to clear, but chilly temperatures will remain, with lows mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Expect improving weather conditions for the period of Wednesday through Friday. Not perfect, but more typical for this time of the year. Look for a mixture of sun and clouds, and milder temperatures.

Highs should reach close to 60 on Wednesday, and mid to upper 60’s on Thursday and Friday. There is a chance of a few showers Thursday afternoon, but a washout is not anticipated.

Earlier, I was thinking more rain for Saturday, but this system looks to pass south of our region. Therefore, I’m optimistic for sunny and warmer weather for your Saturday, with highs in the 70’s…something to look forward to!

As for Sunday, I am cautiously optimistic that the sunny and milder weather will continue, with highs once again in the 70’s. Keep in mind, the patterns can change this far out for Sunday. As we saw yesterday, things can go bad quickly. This is my best estimate at this point in time. I hope it works out!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will issue my Memorial Day weekend forecast! I will also review the latest trends for our summer forecast. In the meantime, keep dreaming my friends…summer will eventually arrive!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

*Blog photo courtesy of @EricFisher

Hello, Sunshine! 5/6/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! While not a washout, the weather this weekend was more similar to November, than early May! Saturday was cloudy and damp at times, with a few sunny breaks.

Sunday was colder, with overcast skies, and occasional light showers. The heaviest of the rain spared Boston, and fell along the south coast and Cape Cod. Overall, it was a damp and chilly day, with high temperatures barely making it to 50.

If you think the weather has been lousy as of late, you are 100% correct! While it may seem unusual, it’s actually just classic New England spring weather at its best (or worst)! It’s so true, that we typically go from winter to summer around here, seemingly overnight!

Nonetheless, folks are tired of the endless grey days, periodic rain showers, and cold winds off of the Atlantic. They want real spring weather…and they want it now!

Well, I have some good news for everyone! While not perfect, it does appear as if the sun will finally be making an appearance this week! In fact, I’m seeing the sun breaking through the clouds outside my weather bunker even as I speak! Shuffle through your glove compartment, and dust off those shades you haven’t been able to use the past couple weeks!

Is it going to last? Our we finally breaking out of the spring doldrums? The unfortunate answer to this question is not just yet! While this week will be an improvement, I do not see this awful pattern completely breaking down anytime soon.

A few friends and family members have asked me what happened to our spring, and when will this pattern break down?

These are all very good questions. I will try and give an explanation to everyone, to the best of my abilities.

You often here me talking about a phenomenon called the Greenland block. This is when high pressure (warm & dry) builds across Greenland and central Canada. When this occurs, it forces the jet stream south of New England, low pressure (cold & stormy) typically results in cold and snowy weather during the winter, and rainy and chilly weather here in the spring.

I have actually been waiting for this Greenland block to develop all winter long. Computer models kept showing that it was going to happen, but it never materialized. This was one (of many) reasons why snowfall ended up below average in Boston this past winter.

Of course, now that we’re in the middle of spring, the block came in with full force, in essence, destroying our mild spring weather we enjoyed for part of April. It’s classic Murphy’s Law here in New England!

Now for the good news. I actually believe it’s a good thing we’re receiving this Greenland blocking pattern here in May. Occasionally, this pattern develops in June, and can fowl up summer weather for us.

I believe if this pattern breaks down sometime later in May, the jet stream will lift north of New England, resuming more typical weather for our region. That will be the point when we all say, it went straight from winter to summer!

If you recall, last year, summer literally arrived on May 1st! After such a frigid April, when hardly anything blossomed, temperatures soared well up into the 80’s on May 1st. Everything blossomed within a week, and folks headed to the beach several times before Memorial Day!

We then went on to experience a much warmer than normal May, breaking a record for the number of 80 degree days we had for the month!

It just so happened, we experienced a warm May last year. This does not happen every year. May is a transition month, lining up in the seasonal shift with November.

Meteorologist and horticulturist Dave Epstein from @GrowingWisdom tweeted out a very interesting statistic, showing half our May’s our chilly, and the other half are warm. Sorry to say, this year could be a chilly one!

But does this mean a cool, wet summer is on the way? My summer forecast will be written just 3 weeks from today! At this point, it’s still hard to say for sure. The weather has been so fickle and changeable, it’s almost impossible to make a accurate seasonal forecast.

Nevertheless, seasonal computer model runs were showing another scorching summer on the way to much of the east coast, including New England. I had my doubts!

Latest computer models have trended away from the hot forecast, especially here in New England. Not so much for our friends across the Mid Atlantic region!

So are we now going cool & wet? No. I’m not going to that extent just yet. However, one must wonder whether we’re going to experience similar heat and humidity as last summer. Last summer, Boston reached or eclipsed 90 degrees a whopping 23 times!

In addition, we broke all sorts of warm weather records, including a record number of 80 degree days, the most 70 degree overnight lows, and the highest dew point levels ever recorded in history. Wow!

Boston has never recorded back to back summers with 20 or more days of 90 degree weather. Remember this statement. I’m not saying it can never happen, anything is possible in the climate we live in today! It’s just that it would be unprecedented!

I’m on record to saying, if Boston reaches 90 degrees 20 times or more again this summer, I will fully comply with my brother in law Michael’s thoughts on climate change.

As it is, I’m very grateful for Michael feeding me continuous links regarding the mounting evidence on a warming climate. While our beliefs differ, I do read the links to learn more about the evolution of climate change.

So in other words, I’m thinking still warm, just not as hot as last summer. Last summer, my forecast was on track through July. Then the wheels fell off the wagon, as Boston experienced its hottest August on record!

We are coming up on the 42 year anniversary of the great Mother’s Day snowstorm that struck much of Massachusetts, and parts of Rhode Island. It was back on May 9th, 1977 when a freak late season nor’easter blasted the state with up to 20″ of heavy wet snow in the hilly terrain of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and between 3 and 8″ around the greater Boston area.

The .5″ of snow that fell at Logan Airport still stands as the latest snowfall on record for Boston. The storm resulted in massive tree damage and power outages across the region. It can always be worse!!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Watch for increasing sunshine for the rest of your Monday! With northeast winds, it will continue to be chilly along the coast, but that early May sun will make it feel so good outside!

High temperatures will make it into the upper 50’s along the coast, and lower 60’s inland. Go out for a walk, and enjoy the evening!

Expect clear and cool weather overnight, with lows falling back into the 30’s in rural areas, and 40’s in urban corridor.

Tuesday will start off with sunshine. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 60’s. However, an approaching cold front will result in increasing clouds, and a band of rain showers moving in from the west. If the air becomes unstable enough, there may even be an embedded thunderstorm!

The cold front should clear the coast tomorrow night, followed by clearing and cool weather overnight. Low temperatures should mainly be in the 40’s.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a fine May day, with a mixture of sun and clouds. Once again, northeast winds will keep coastal locations in the 50’s, while inland locations warm to the lower to mid 60’s.

Fair weather should continue Wednesday evening, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

Another storm system will be approaching New England Thursday. Expect thickening clouds and rain to overspread the region during the afternoon. It will be cooler, with highs only in the 50’s, with onshore winds.

As the storm tries to track west of New England, the block will force the storm to redevelop south of New England Friday. This will continue the cool temperatures, along with periods of rain, drizzle and onshore winds. Yuck!

At this point, this storm may linger into early Saturday, however I’m fairly confident that it will be pushing east of New England during the day, resulting in clearing skies and warmer temperatures during the afternoon! If we get enough sun, temperatures could boost up into the lower 70’s, with a west wind.

It looks like we will be between two storms on Mother’s Day, so I am optimistic for mainly sunny weather for Sunday. With a northwest wind, it will be slightly cooler than Saturday, with highs mainly in the lower 60’s. Better than 42 years ago!

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next blog, I will be chatting a bit more about our summer forecast. I was off with my forecast last year, so I really want to try and get this year right! In the meantime, sometimes you have to go through the storm, before the sun shines! Enjoy!

Happy Mother’s Day to my mom, and to all of the mom’s out there!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Stuck In A Rut! 4/29/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! After a very rainy Friday, Saturday turned blustery, and to be honest, felt very fall like. Sunday began with sunshine, but a weak storm tracking just south of New England, brought clouds back, and light rain to many areas south of the Turnpike. With the clouds and rain, it also was quite chilly, with temperatures remaining in the 40’s.

So here we are, late April, and some folks are chirping that it’s still too cold out. You would be surprised that this April is running about 4 degrees above average! This is the exact opposite from last April, when complaints for cold were justified!

But when did all this warm weather occur? Now that’s the tricky part! No days in April have been exceptionally warm, nor exceptionally cold. Rather there was about a 10 day stretch when the temperatures were consistently above average, by about 5 to 8 degrees or so. This is true for daytime highs and night time lows.

Statistically, it will go down as a warmer than average month. In reality, you will most likely remember April being like April. Lots of rain, and bone chilling winds whipping in off the Atlantic.

As the saying goes, it could be worse! Just last year, for example, April was as grey and cold as any winter month. Temperatures consistently remained below average, and we even had some snow from time to time.

It was also 32 years ago back in 1987, that we were digging out from a very unusual late season snowstorm across the Boston area! A late season nor’easter dropped a record 4.1″ of snow at Logan Airport, making it the most ever recorded for so late in the season in Boston.

This was not the whole story. Surrounding towns received between 6 and 12″ of wet snow, with the higher terrain west and southwest of the city receiving up to 2ft of snow. Even as close by as Blue Hills received close to 1 ft of wet snow!

Overall, April can be a volatile month, featuring late season snowstorms, intense early season heat, flooding rains, and high winds. Record high temperatures this time of the year is in the 90’s! Over the years, I remember several instances when temperatures have soared into the 90’s in April. This will not be one of those years!

During Easter celebrations yesterday, some family members wanted to know when is it going to warm up, and why does it seem like it’s on the cool side more times than not around here in April?

I’ll answer the latter question first. As mentioned above, April can be a volatile month. So far, we have not seen too many extremes around here this April. Along with May, it’s a true spring month.

The one thing that influences our weather in April, is the ocean. In recent years, seasonal shifts has delayed our springs from arriving, but also has extended mild weather patterns deeper into our late fall and early winter.

Our climate here in New England, is greatly influenced by the Atlantic Ocean. Latent heating means the oceans take longer to warm up than the land mass during spring and early summer. As the land mass quickly warms, the air rises.

Displacing this air, is cool dense, marine air rushing in from the chilly ocean. This holds back warm arriving from arriving too soon in New England. And if it does arrive, it typically does not last more than a day or two.

You would be surprised to learn that our coldest ocean temperatures off Boston does not occur until mid February to mid March. And in the summer, our warmest temperatures occur from mid August to mid September. Of course, this is displaced from the winter and summer solstice by about 2 months. It takes this long for the sun to warm up the ocean in the spring, and for the temperature to cool off in the autumn.

In late fall, the opposite occurs. Because it takes so long for the ocean to cool off, our winters are delayed from arriving here in eastern New England.

There is some debate in recent years as to just how inte4nse this latent heating and cooling phenomenon is becoming. I am in the camp, as have many, that there has been a marked shift in the seasonal patterns.

Winter seems to be lingering deeper into spring, and summer deeper into fall. There’s no doubt in my mind, that this has a lot to do with the abnormally warm ocean temperatures that have developed over the last 20 years or so.

For those looking for warm springlike weather, this is not the week for you! Oddly enough, as cold as last April was, I will never forget the marked pattern change on May 1st of last year. The seasons instantly changed from winter to summer, seemingly overnight! To the delight of many, last May saw a record number of 80 degree days, with more than half the days of the month registering 80 degree + temperatures.

A very persistent pattern, beginning last November, has kept New England in the cross fire between cold air to the north, and unseasonably warm air to our south. This has kept a steady stream of storms pointing a fire hose of precipitation towards New England.

In most cases, temperatures were just too warm to result in anything but liquid to fall. This resulted in a very disappointing winter for snow lovers in much of eastern Massachusetts.

Up north, where it was just cold enough, many ski resorts reported one their best seasons ever!

You would think, now that where practically into May, that this pattern would finally give up, and retreat. However, this has not been the case this April, and now heading into May! Relentless waves of rain has made this April the greatest number of days with measurable precipitation since records began in Boston back in 1872! So far we have seen 20 days, and counting!

Veteran amateur meteorologist Anthony Siciliano took it a step further, and showed on Twitter that the period from September 1st to now, has been the wettest such period on record here in Boston! So if you think it’s been raining a lot, you’re correct!

Now, when is it going to get warm? As for sustained warm weather, I don’t see anything happening for at least the first two weeks of May. Thereafter, our oscillating jet stream, may cooperate, and push north of our region for the second half of May.

With the second half of May turning warm, it may offset the colder first half, and equal out the month as neutral. That’s what I’m going for right now. However, the trend has been warmer than normal months since December, so it could easily up slightly warmer than normal.

In between the rainstorms, the sun will shine brightly. May 1st is the start of mowing season in the Boston area. After all of this rain, keep a close eye on your lawn! Any sunshine after all this rain is going to result in a rapid growth spurt to the lawns! If the sun comes out his weekend, I would recommend having your lawn mowed, before it gets out of hand!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rank this week a 3 out of 10.

After such a beautiful start to the day, the next in the parade of storms, will begin to increase the clouds this afternoon. It was warm earlier, but clouds and winds possibly turning onshore will keep temperatures mainly in the 50’s.

Expect rain to develop later tonight, and continue into the first half of tomorrow. It will be chilly and damp, with lows mainly in the 40’s, and highs only near 50. The Red Sox should get their game in tonight against the Oakland Athletics.

Sorry to do this, but the period of Tuesday through Friday looks to feature weather more like November, than early May. Expect mainly cloudy skies, occasional rain, drizzle and mist. Temperatures look to be below normal, with highs only in the 40’s and 50’s. If we do get any peaks of sun, temperatures could briefly warm into the low 60’s…but keep the flannel wear handy!

If we’re lucky, we may get a break this weekend. As the storm pulls out, winds briefly shift offshore this weekend. If this happens, temperatures would respond back up into the upper 60’s, perhaps touching 70, along with some sunshine. Don’t get too used to it, as more rain is slated to arrive next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a look at how long our soggy weather pattern may persist for. I will also discuss my latest thinking for our summer pattern. In the meantime, we all get stuck in a rut sometimes…even Mother Nature!

Thanks for reading!

Pete