Seasonable…Wet At Times. 4/22/19

Hello! Happy Easter to all who celebrated! I hope everyone enjoyed their, weekend! While Saturday was wet at times, the complete washout that was anticipated, never really materialized. Though for sure, it was just enough rain to foul up outdoor events & activities.

Easter Sunday began on the damp side, but the sun broke through around the Boston area as anticipated, boosting temperatures up to near 70 degrees in the afternoon. All in all, not a bad Easter Sunday for all to enjoy!

After a chilly start, April has warmed up nicely across the Boston area. In fact, we are now running 4 degrees above the average for the month. This is in stark contrast to the 4 degrees below average last April!

As expected, the warm temperatures has prompted green up across the region. The first thing you may have noticed is the grass turning green. What a welcome sight after a long, grey winter!

The second thing you may of noticed is the sudden blooms of forsythia and magnolia trees. With all the rain we’ve had, the spring colors are vivid this year!

Finally, with temperatures so warm, the trees have actually begun to bloom. What was one week behind schedule, has suddenly turned into one week ahead of schedule! This is what above average temperatures will do for spring blossoms at this time of the year!

While this week looks to be on the mild side, there is no very warm weather anticipated for the rest of the month. However at this point, I don’t see any change in timing for leaf out across our area. Expect most leaves to be out in Boston by early May, and full leaf out by our average date of May 10th.

Though we have transitional seasons of spring and fall, I like to look at our climate as a 50/50 proposition. Staring May 1st is our “warm” season, which means leaves on the trees, lawn mowing, flowers and gardening. This runs to October 31st, which is a full 6 months.

We then have our “cold” season, which runs from November 1st, to April 30th, which includes winter, which runs from December through March.

There are many ways to interpret the climate, this is just one way I like to look at it around here. Of course we have spring and fall, which may be longer or shorter, depending upon the year.

You would think that we would be completely done with snow in Boston this time of the year. But this was not the case back on April 28th, 1987! On this date, Boston was hit by a slow moving late season nor’easter!

I remember that April being cold and wet. The kicker was the unseasonable snowstorm at the end of the month. While Logan Airport recorded a record 4.3″ of snow for so late in the season, many surrounding communities received between 6 and 12″ of heavy wet snow.

Further inland and in the hilly terrain, between 1 and 2 ft of snow was common! I remember leftover snowbanks lingering into the first few days of May!

I don’t anticipate any unseasonable late season snowstorms this year. The latest snow ever recorded in Boston was on May 9th, 1977, in the historic Mother’s Day snowstorm! So you never know for sure, until after that date!

I recently chatted with my friend Remy, who is a Atmospheric Science major at Cornell University, about our current weather patterns. we both agreed that the pattern has been warmer than average along the east coast, including New England, since last May.

In fact, the only below average month since last April, was last November. Every other month has since then has featured above average temperatures. Looking at the long range guidance, most data is indicating a continuation of warmer than normal weather through next fall, at least!

So this leads me to my summer preview. Based on trends, the early call for this summer is a warmer than normal summer on the way, for most of New England. Computer models are showing hotter than normal.

This is not my final call. I’m strictly going on what computer models are projecting, and we all know how that worked out on their call for a historic winter along the east coast this past year!!!! Answer…not good!

After last years much warmer to hotter than normal summer in Boston, which featured 23 days when the temperature eclipsed 90 degrees or higher, I find this outlook hard to believe.

Why? Well the average number of 90 degree days in Boston for a typical season is 14. I don’t believe the city has ever recorded two back to back summers with 20 or more 90 degree days in the history of record keeping.

I’m not saying it can’t happen. It seems as if we’ve entered a new era in our climate, where anything and everything can happen. Typically, it’s been warm weather records being broken in recent years.

If we do eclipse 90 degrees 20 times or more this summer in Boston, I would be shocked. I would even go as far as to possibly change my mind regarding the mounting evidence of a warmer climate regime here in Boston.

I’m still holding out hope that this warm period is a cycle, mainly due to the much warmer than normal ocean temperatures being recorded across the world.

I’m actually very excited to see how Mother Nature responds to our climate this summer. Will she go against what computer models are projecting, and somehow drive cooler air masses in from Canada to keep it close to normal here in New England?

Or, will the heat simply overwhelm the eastern part of the U.S. and we broil once again with either similar or even hotter weather than last summer? My final call for this summer will be posted on May 27th, only about a month away!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Somewhat unsettled, but still mild.

Expect a washout for the rest of today! Showers moving in, heavy at times, with the chance of a rumble of thunder towards evening. This is in stark contrast to the sunny and warm morning we experienced.

Rain will continue the first part of the night, then gradually come to an end overnight. It will be damp and cool, but not cold. Watch for areas of dense fog after the rain diminishes.

After a murky start, Tuesday should feature brightening skies during the afternoon. Temperatures should respond into the lower 60’s.

There may be another round of showers tomorrow night, which should end by early Wednesday morning. If we get enough sunshine later Wednesday, and I’m planning on it, temperatures should warm up to near 70.

No rain is anticipated for Wednesday night and Thursday. Lows should only drop into the 50’s Wednesday night, and warm back up into the 60’s on Thursday, with possible sea breezes keeping it cooler along the coast.

While Friday may start dry, another fast moving storm will be approaching New England from the southwest. This will bring increasing clouds during the day, with rain arriving towards evening, and lasting into the first half of Saturday.

Right now, if timing works out, this system should clear the coast so that Sunday would be the better of the two weekend days, with mainly sunny skies, and temperatures in the upper 60’s, or even low 70’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my April review, and May preview! Hard to believe how fast time is going! I will also let you know if I have any new information regarding our summer forecast! In the meantime, seasonable is nice this time of year, if we could just get rid of this darn, rain!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy Easter to all Eastern Orthodox Christians, this Sunday!

We’re At The Finish Line! 4/15/19

Hello! Happy Tax Day & Happy Patriots Day! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! Saturday started off damp, but then turned sunny and warm, with temperatures soaring into the 70’s region wide for the first time this spring!

Sunday was the exact opposite, starting off sunny and warm, but turning cloudy and cooler later in the day. Nonetheless, it was generally a warm and dry weekend for many, here in mid April.

This is in stark contrast to last April. It was snowing in Boston one year ago today. You would of thought the weather would of improved the next day for the Boston Marathon, but this was not the case.

An unusually strong nor’easter for this time of the year, delivered icy sleet early in the morning, which then transitioned to a wind driven cold rain, with ferocious northeast winds. It was by far one of the worst weather conditions in history for the Boston Marathon.

That was last year, what about today? Well, if you were up early, you may of heard thunder, and heard the rain pelting against your windows. Many may of said, here we go again!

But if you stepped outside, the first thing you would of noticed was that it felt more like May! With the warm front lifting north of our area, temperatures warmed up to near 60 early today. In fact, some runners were complaining that it was a bit too warm for there liking.

Last week at this time, computer models were portraying a much more precarious scenario. As I always say, I call it as I see it. Last Monday, the models were predicting a storm to develop across the lower Tennessee Valley, then track northeast just south of New England.

As it turned out, computer guidance kept shifting the storm track further and further to the north and west of the Boston area. With this track, most of southern New England entered into the warm sector of the storm, with southerly winds.

The folks who manage and run the Boston Marathon could not of asked for a better scenario! After some brief early morning downpours, we have now fully entered the warm sector of the storm. Not only does the rain typically shut off when this happens, but we now have breaks of sun poking through the clouds!

The one unfortunate outcome, is that temperatures are warming well up into the 60’s. As the trailing cold front crosses the region later today, there may be some additional brief downpours and squally winds.

After the cold front clears the coast, winds are going to shift westerly, and drive a strong tailwind towards Boston from Hopkinton. For many runners, this may come a little too late, as many of the runners would of finished the marathon by then. Still, there may be a group of runners who may benefit from the last second push from Mother Nature!

Had this storm taken the southern route, and tracked south of New England, this would of been a much different outcome! First, with the center tracking south of New England, there would not of been any warm sector punching into the region.

We would of been socked in with gusty northeasterly winds, and a wind driven rain at that. Similar to last year. However, adding to the misery, there undoubtedly would of been at least some early morning wet snow mixed in, if not all wet snow greeting the runners in Hopkinton.

Additional snow would of mixed in with the rain as the runners headed towards Boston. The difference was that it was colder aloft with this storm, which would of supported wet snow to fall, with the intensity of the storm.

And so it goes here in April. What once looked like a good spring snowstorm, quickly trended to a warmer solution with thunder and lightning to boot!

Several friends and family members have been asking me whether winter is over. Along with many of the runners today in the marathon, I am very confident to say, yes! You too have made it through the marathon called winter! I’m very confident that there will be no more accumulating snow here in Boston this season.

Is it still possible to see some wet snow in the air? Yes. It’s still possible until the end of April. In a rare storm, Boston received a record 4.2″ of snow with up to a 21″ in the suburbs back on April 28th, 1987. In a storm even more rare, Boston received a half inch of snow with 7 to 12″ in the suburbs on May 9th, 1977! These storms were the exceptions, not the rule!

I for one will not shed any tears seeing this winter go buh, bye! After years of on point seasonal forecasts, I have now misfired on both the summer and now winter forecast for Boston.

As I mentioned last week, you will not be hearing too many folks complaining of a hotter summer than planned, and a milder winter than what I had thought, be wrong! This actually works out just right for the majority of folks out there!

There’s no sugarcoating it. The forecast grade for the winter….drum roll please…..F!!!! Failure. Go home and find another hobby! Okay, that maybe taking it too far, but I can’t tell you how very disappointed I was with the winter forecast. I really felt terrible for followers who were expecting a lot more.

To set the record straight, my forecast called for between 80 and 90″ of snow in Boston this winter…only 27.4″ actually fell at Logan Airport. The yearly average is approximately 44″.

However, this was not the full story. For one reason or another, there was a rather large disparity between Logan and areas just inland this winter.

For instance, I officially measured 41.3″ where I live in West Roxbury, which is only about 8 miles away from the airport. Amounts were fairly similar in the metropolitan area, with some inland locations reporting up to 50″. Even Worcester recorded a rare below average winter for snowfall.

It wasn’t until you got north and west of Manchester N.H. especially up in the mountains, where real winter hit, and snowfall was deep. Caribou Maine for example, received 164.7″ of snow this winter, their third snowiest winter on record!

Not to get into all the details, but everything turned out the exact opposite of what I was thinking. Even though seasonal computer model runs were off by about 1000 miles with their data, it was my trusty winter forecast formula that I have used for the past 10 years that ultimately did me in!

The only source of comfort, was that I was not alone in my winter prognostications. Other than one or two “geniuses” out there, we all went down in the ship together, pros and amateurs alike!

It’s too complex to pinpoint one particular reason as to what happened. While it was basically a non winter from Boston to D.C., it was a whole different story about 200 miles to the north and west of the coastal plain.

Beyond that, whole homes were being buried due to repetitive heavy snowfalls. Some ski resorts in northern New England and southern Canada are planning to stay open until early June this year, due to deep bases amassed from this winter snowfall.

As WBZ meteorologist Eric Fisher said, “it was a hills and mountains type of winter.” He also mentioned that Boston was due for a dud winter. Five out of the last six winters in Boston featured well above average snowfall. And the one that wasn’t, was not off by too much.

Still, this brings me little comfort. If I were to do another winter forecast, I will have to evaluate my whole thought process, and see if it’s worth placing my neck on the line like that, again.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Typical spring weather.

Expect another round of showers this afternoon. After this goes by, winds will shift to the west, and become gusty. This is the cold front pressing through the area. Watch the humidity levels and temperatures drop later today, as cooler and drier air works into the region.

Tonight will feature clearing skies under windy conditions. Though not cold, the brisk wind will make it feel chillier than what it actually is. Lows will only drop into the 40’s.

Look for similar weather conditions for the period Tuesday through Thursday. It should be mainly on the dry side with times of sun mixed with some puffy cumulus clouds. Expect high temperatures in the upper 50’s and very low 60’s, and lows in the 30’s across suburban area, and lower 40’s in the cities.

Another low pressure area will track west of New England come Friday and Saturday. This will lead to inclement weather across the region. Watch for a chance of showers with somewhat humid conditions on Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Then as the front slowly pushes through the region on Saturday, we could be looking at a total washout with rain, heavy at times.

If this front clears the coast in time, Easter Sunday could turn sunny and on the warm side, with highs in the lower 70’s! I hope that works out for those celebrating Easter this Sunday!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing some of reasons as to what happened to my winter forecast. I feel that some sort of an explanation is till in order. I will also have my sneak peek into our summer forecast! In the meantime, time to celebrate, you made it to the finish line!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Easter, to those who celebrate this Sunday!~

We’re Almost There! 4/8/19

Hello, I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a glorious spring weekend, weather wise. After a bit of a wintry mix and rain Friday evening, Saturday cleared out and turned into a gorgeous spring day! Sunday was not as bright, but still featured very mild temperatures.

Overnight, the wind shifted to the northeast, bringing colder weather back into the Boston area, along with a miserable cold rain. In fact, it was so cold, it is actually snowing across parts of New Hampshire, and most of Maine today!

This is why I say this time of year, it’s two steps forward, and one step back. We’re getting close, but not quite there just yet!

Well, I guess the April Fools’ joke was on me last week! Fortunately for many, my forecast for snow last Wednesday morning did not materialize. In fact, the sun was out by 10 AM, and a beautiful day followed suite. surprise to me.

Though I was never forecasting any big accumulations, I was still very disappointed at the defiance of Mother Nature cooperating with the forecast.

A last second shift in the track, and I mean a very last second shift, spared the Boston area a 1 to 3″ snowfall that morning. This was still just the outer fringes of the massive cyclone that rapidly intensified just southeast of Cape Cod.

Had this storm tracked 75 miles closer to the coast, we would of been blasted blasted with a severe spring nor’easter.

As it was, computer models had the storm coming just close enough to give Boston a glancing blow, Wednesday morning. Short range computer models did a horrible job handling this storm.

They held on to possible snow as late as Tuesday evening. It wasn’t until close to midnight when I started to see signs of a shift east. By this time, it was too late to change my forecast. Another bust was incoming, and I could do nothing to change it!

As this event quickly fizzled, I watched the sun begin breaking through the clouds as early as 9 AM. As I mentioned above, a last second shift of 50 miles, made all the difference.

So once again, Mother Nature showed us who’s in charge around here. It got me thinking about forecasting the weather these days.

It has become more and more apparent to me, that computer models are becoming less reliable. Either there’s just too much information out there to digest, or the weather is just becoming more complicated.

I noticed this change about 5 or 6 years ago. The dilemma with each storm of computer models not in agreement with one another. Or, such as this case, a last second shift leaving meteorologists and forecasters looking like fools.

It has gotten to the point when now casting, meaning giving constant updates on the storm is the better way to go. The weather changes so quickly, you need to update it at least every three hours or so, just to be in the ballgame.

As far monthly & seasonal forecasts go, well that’s a whole different matter, altogether. Maybe it’s just me? I had a streak of being pretty much on point with my seasonal forecasts for years.

That all changed last summer, when my “cooler” than normal summer suddenly turned into one of the hottest summers on record for the Boston area.

Everything was going according to schedule up until July 1st. At that point, all hell broke loose, and the summer just kept getting hotter and hotter.

I chalked it up to unforeseen conditions, apologized for the miscalculation, and moved onto the winter forecast.

On a positive note, most folks don’t mind when my forecast was off for a cooler summer, or as in this winters case, for a lot of snow. I’m sure I would of received some complaints had it been the opposite!

This all sounds like a perfect cue to explain what went wrong with the winter forecast. But because I wait until the last flake fall to summarize the forecast, it will have to wait for another week or two. Though small, there’s still a slight chance of a small accumulation over the next week.

This leads me into the April forecast. Once again, computer models are all over the place. Flip flopping between warm and cold, stormy and dry.

What once looked like a very warm April, is now on shaky ground. You may say, Pete, we’ve already had some warm days here in April, so the warm idea has merit.

I will agree with you on that…at least here in southern New England. The huge disparity between the weather in northern New England, and down here in southern New England this winter continues now into the spring.

Repetitive snowfalls, and colder temperatures continue to keep much of northern New England in winters icy grip, now here in April. If the cool, snowy pattern continues, some places will be skiing into Memorial Day!

There has been some warm days, but there has been no sustained warmth to speak of as of yet. We continue to be on the battleground between cold air to our north, and warm air across the southeastern part of the United Sates.

Out west, forget it. The Sierra mountain range in California has received over 50 ft of snow this winter, and the Midwest is preparing for yet another powerhouse blizzard this week, which may bring record snows to Minnesota!

It appears as if northern New England has been entrenched more on the colder and snowier side, while here in southern New England we’ve been caught somewhere in the middle.

This, by the way, lines up more with a La Niña pattern, than an El Niño which is what we’re supposed to be in right now. But that’s another story for another time!

So is spring ever going to arrive in full earnest? Yes, but it’s going to take some time. Green up is running about one week behind schedule here in Boston, at this time. In many respects, it still looks like the dead of winter out there.

However, it won’t be long now! Once we hit April 10th, the solar radiation becomes so strong, that you will notice the grass beginning to turn green. I can see the forsythia are beginning to bloom, so that’s a good sign!

Last frost in the city of Boston averages around April 10th, but not for another month in the suburbs. Trees should begin to bloom the last 10 days of April, with full leaf out in Boston by May 10th. If you live in northern New England, you can add close to one month to these dates! Especially this year!

Now for the dilemma of the day! We are caught in no mans land, a meteorological wasteland of sorts. Caught in between gardening season about to start up, camping and hiking season, and full fledged ski season continuing up north!

The growing season has not arrived in much of Massachusetts. It’s too wet for camping. So I say bring back another ski report! Why not?

If you plan on doing some spring skiing, I would rate this week a 9 out of 10. Many resorts that are still open, still have deep snow on the slopes.

In fact, many resorts in New Hampshire, and especially Maine will be receiving between 6 and 12″ today and tomorrow! A rebound in temperatures later in the week will mean some fine spring skiing, under comfortable conditions. It has to end sometime…maybe in May?

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect cloudy and damp conditions for the rest of your Monday. Northeast winds will continue to funnel chilly weather in from the ocean, with highs remaining in the low 40’s.

Don’t expect much change overnight, as clouds and drizzle persisting, along with chilly temperatures. It won’t be cold, but with the wind coming in off the ocean, temperatures will be raw, mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Tuesday will be a typical spring day here in eastern New England. While it’s only in the low 40’s here in Boston, temperatures may be in the 70’s in southwest Connecticut and New York. Ouch!! So close, yet so far away.

Why such a big difference? It all has to do with the wind direction. Onshore winds here in Boston will keep us in the low 40’s. If you plan on going to Fenway for opening day, bring a warm jacket! There also may be some drizzle, fog, and light rain showers at any point.

Cold and damp conditions will persist tomorrow night. As another low passes south of New England, more showers may develop later at night and continue into Wednesday.

In fact, it may be so cold on Wednesday, there could be a few wet snow flakes early in the morning. High temperatures will only be in the lower 40’s.

The weather Thursday through Saturday will improve, with sunnier days. In fact, we may see a warming trend through the period for Friday and Saturday. Highs should make it into the 50’s Thursday, close to 60 Friday, and possibly close to 70 Saturday.

However, things may change thereafter. Depending on where a block develops over Greenland, will determine what happens on Marathon Monday.

A storm will be developing in the lower Tennessee Valley. This storm will then begin to track northeast towards New England. This could end up being just awful timing.

In the meantime, strong high pressure will be building across southeast Canada. On the weather maps, this looks like a mid winter scenario.

If this storm tracks south of New England, and comes close enough, it could result in a late season surprise!

What do I mean by that? Well, with cold air filtering down from the north, it’s conceivable that it may be cold enough for wet snow to fall in parts of Massachusetts next Monday.

It’s too early to get into details at this point, the storm may also pass too far to our south and miss us altogether. I just wanted to make everyone aware that there is a potential for a storm next Monday, and it could be cold enough for wet snow. I will monitor closely through the week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a look to see if there is any sustained spring weather in our future. I will also either have my winter review, or take a sneak peek into our summer forecast. In the meantime, we are much closer to spring than we are to winter, if that makes you feel any better!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

No Joke…Snow Wednesday! 4/1/19

Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful, weekend! Saturday began with a chill to the air, but warmer winds took over during the afternoon, boosting temperatures well up into the 60’s. The mild weather continued Saturday night, with lows remaining in the 50’s!

This led to a very warm launching pad for Sunday. With bright sunshine in the morning. With a gusty south wind, temperatures soared to 70 degrees in Boston for the first time since November 2nd of last year!

I hope everyone got out and enjoyed the early spring morning. Things changed quite rapidly during the afternoon, as dark clouds rolled in, eventually leading to rain showers across much of the region. After the rain stopped, colder temperatures swept back into New England.

In fact, temperatures today will be some 25 degrees colder than yesterday! And if you thought we were done with sub freezing temperatures for the season, think again! Temperatures are going to fall into the 20’s region wide, tonight!

I’m not surprised about the early spring chilly temperatures. I always said, it’s two steps forward, one step back getting to spring, here in New England.

Overall, April is a month when we truly begin to transition into spring around here. For one, the grass begins to turn green, flowers begin to bloom, and trees begin flowering towards the end of the month, depending on how warm it becomes.

This is not always the case! Last year, April was cold, and spring was severely delayed until May. When it arrived, we simply skipped right over spring, and went right into summer!

April is still a transition month. In the seasonal calendar, April matches up with October as we head towards winter. The same as we can have warm weather in October, we can also experience cold in April…case and point this morning!

We can also experience SNOW in April! Logan Airport averages 1.5″ of snow in April. This is deceiving. Some years, we hardly see any snow in April. However, once in about every 5 years or so, Boston experiences a legit snowstorm.

Who could ever forget the Great April Fools’ Blizzard, on this date, back in 1997? Wow, what a storm! I vividly remember just a couple days before the storm on Sunday, March 30th, being sunny & warm, with temperatures in the mid 60’s. Folks were out enjoying their Easter Sunday.

Things changed rapidly the next day, as a cold front slipped through the area, dropping temperatures some 30 degrees.

At the same time, a very intense area of vorticity (atmospheric energy/spin) was charging down through Ontario towards the mid Atlantic region. This bundle of energy captured a surface low off the New Jersey coast, and the storm just exploded! Because it got captured in the upper atmosphere, the storm stalled, and slowly meandered south of Cape Cod.

The cold air in the upper atmosphere was the key in triggering the intense snowfall here in Boston. The storm was in the perfect spot to absolutely clobber the Boston area with between 2 and 3 ft of heavy wet cement like snow! I measured 28″ of snow here in West Roxbury. Ranking this the second largest storm, only behind the Blizzard of ’78! Some communities just to the southwest of here received up to 3 ft of snow!

One thing that I will never forget about this storm was the relentless thunder and lightning which accommodated the blizzard conditions during the height of the storm! During this period, Boston accumulated snow at the rate of 3 to 4″ per hour for 4 straight hours!

Needless to say, this was an April Fools’ joke of historic proportions, that only Mother Nature could pull off! Nobody could believe what had happened when they looked out the window Tuesday morning!

I can’t believe that 22 years have gone by! I remember there was no snow in April for 6 straight years after that storm. Then not much more after that for many more years.

However, I have noticed an uptick in April snows once again in recent years. A few years ago, Boston received back to back snowfalls in early April. Just last year, it snowed several times in Boston, with the last flakes falling as late as April 19th.

This April looks quite interesting to me. Building heat to the southwest of New England is going to try and push its way towards the north and east into New England. At the same time, a Greenland block may finally develop, which will tend to mute the early season heat here in New England.

I’m actually expecting April to average above normal this year, but how we get there may be an adventure in itself! The first twenty days of April may feature wild swings in temperatures, ranging from way above normal, to way below. Thereafter, the warm weather should finally become established the last 10 days of the month.

Are we done with snow? While it becomes more difficult for it to snow and accumulate here in Boston during April, I can not wave the all clear sign just yet. As mentioned above, we have had many memorable snowstorms in the first 10 days of April. It has even snowed as late as May 9th, back in 1977 around Boston! Don’t put the shovels away just yet!

It’s possible, some may see wet snow in the air as early as this Wednesday! A rapidly developing ocean storm will pass to the southeast of Cape Cod on Wednesday, lashing the coast with gusty winds, rain and even some wet snow mixed in.

My goodness, this is way too close for comfort! Had this storm tracked 100 miles further west, we would be looking at quite a nor’easter, with storm force winds and heavy wet snow! I will monitor just in case!

How did March turn out? Well, believe it or not, March will go in the books with slightly above average temperatures in Boston. It certainly didn’t seem like it after the cold first half of the month. Well above average temperatures at the end of the month certainly tipped the scale to the plus side.

After the heavy snow the first 4 days of the month, the rest of the month featured very little additional snowfall. Nonetheless, Boston finished with above average snow for the third straight March. Overall, it was a drier than normal month across much of the six state region.

Cold temperatures and a big mid month snowstorm kept the ski resorts very happy throughout March. In fact, you can still find excellent ski conditions at some of the resorts that are still open! My reports are finished for the year, but if I would to rank this week, I would give it a 7 out of 10!

Now for your weekly outdoor camping and hiking activity forecast. Expect chilly to cold weather this week, with a chance of wet snow in Maine on Wednesday, then another chance of snow Friday night and Saturday morning across much of northern New England! Sounds like you should bring the skis, and leave the hiking boots at home for now!

Time for your weekly outdoor activity planner. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Chilly, and unsettled at times.

Watch for sunny skies for the rest of your Monday. The strong April sun will make it feel warmer than what it is. Temperatures will struggle into the lower 40’s but the wind will make it feel colder.

Expect clear and cold weather overnight. Most suburban towns will drop into the 20’s, with even Boston dropping to 32 degrees.

Tuesday will feature sunshine for the first part of the day. However, you will notice an increase in high clouds during the afternoon. With a lighter wind, it will feel more comfortable, with highs near 50.

The storm mentioned above will begin intensifying to our south, then track southeast of Cape Cod during Wednesday morning. As it looks right now, the brunt of this storm is going to barely miss us to the south and east. However, it still is going to track close enough to us to bring a period of rain and wind for the first part of Wednesday.

As mentioned above, if it comes down hard enough, there may even be some wet snow in the air, especially to the west of Boston in the higher terrain. I can not rule out wet snow falling in and around Boston as well!

If the storm decides to track slightly closer to the coast, then we could see heavy rain, strong winds changing to heavy wet snow across the Boston area. I’m not calling for that right now, but definitely something to monitor over the the next 24 hours.

Very latest computer models have actually shifted the storm slightly even more to the west. If this verifies, rain will change to a period of heavy wet snow, even in Boston! Because it will be falling during the day, roads should remain just wet, but I can’t rule out some small accumulations on grassy areas, trees and car tops!

Because Cape Cod will be closer to the storm out at sea, residents down there can expect a stormy Wednesday, with strong northeast winds, and a windswept rain of between 1 and 2″.

Another area to watch is down east Maine, say from Portland on up the coast, for wet snow and strong winds. Very tricky call, please monitor latest forecast up in that region, for latest watches and warnings.

Whatever happens around Boston, expect late day clearing on Wednesday, with temperatures boosting up into the mid to upper 50’s after the sun comes out! Gotta love New England!

Expect fair and chilly weather Wednesday night, with lows mainly in the 20’s in rural areas, and 30’s across the urban corridor.

Thursday is looking like a fine day, with ample sunshine and near seasonal temperatures. After a chilly start, it should warm up into the lower 50’s during the afternoon.

Sea breezes will keep it chilly on Friday. In addition, clouds will be on the increase during the day. A storm system will be approaching from the southwest, and may begin to spread rain into the region late in the day and at night. With the chilly temperatures in place, I can’t rule out some wet snow across the interior, and especially up across northern New England.

Saturday may begin damp and cool, but skies should begin to clear during the afternoon. If this does indeed happen, temperatures will boost up into the mid 50’s, under the warm April sun.

Right now, Sunday is looking like the better of the two weekend days, with plenty of sun, and temperatures warming up to near 60. A sea breeze along the coast will keep temperatures closer to 50 in those locations.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have an update on our spring table, and when we should expect green up across the region. I will also have your new outdoor planner forecast. In the meantime, whatever snow falls on Wednesday morning, will be gone by the afternoon…and that’s no joke!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

March: Out Like A Lamb! 3/25/19

Hello! Happy spring! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Saturday began a bit on the wintry side, with many of us waking up to a picturesque coating of snow! The rest of Saturday was blustery and chilly, but the strong March sun went to work to melt the snow fairly rapidly.

This was a good thing, as West Roxbury residents and kids celebrated the 11th annual Shamrock Shootout on historic Temple Street on Saturday.

This is a street hockey tournament coordinated by local resident Mike O’Brien that brings together families, vendors and even politicians. I heard that Governor Baker was in attendance!

I was disappointed that I could not attend the event. Not that I missed the governor, but that I missed treating myself to Nona’s homemade ice cream!

If you haven’t had the pleasure, I recommend taking a drive down to beautiful scenic Scituate Harbor and treating yourself to a delicious homemade ice cream, owned and operated by one of my best friends Tom Donahue and his wife Chrissy.

Sunday was a very pleasant day. After a chilly start. temperatures warmed up to near or just over 60 degrees, making it a wonderful afternoon to take a walk in the park or by the ocean!

As has been the case all winter long, the storm that brought rain to much of eastern Massachusetts on Friday, delivered lots of heavy wet snow to many ski resorts in all three northern New England states. In fact, many resorts measured snow anywhere between 15 and 30″!

Wow! What a winter it has been up north! It basically began way back in October, and has been going strong, since! Other than some parts of northern Maine, I wouldn’t call it a record season. Just a good old fashioned northern New England winter, with repetitive snowstorms, and no nuclear meltdown to speak of.

It’s quite amazing the disparity between the mountains and coastal regions this winter. Typically, when the mountains see so much snow, the coast often sees its share later in the season, to try and balance off the difference.

I’m not going to get into the horrid details of this past winter just yet. I will to wait until I’m sure the threat of snow is done for the season. It’s still just too early to sign the all clear siren! Snow has accumulated in Boston as late as May 9th, 1977!

Boston has also seen some late season surprises in recent years, as well! Just 3 years ago, back to back storms at the start of April, delivered 3″ in one storm, then 6″ of powder the very next day!

And who could ever forget the infamous April Fools’ Blizzard, back in 1997! The blizzard actually began on March 31st, and continued into April 1st, bringing high winds, thunder, lightning and between 2 and 3 ft of heavy wet to the Boston region. It was a severe storm that I will soon never forget!

Before then, Boston saw an unusual late season nor’easter back on April 28th 1987, when between 4 and 6″ accumulated in the city, but between 1 and 2 ft in the suburbs! I remember leftover snowbanks lingering into the start of May. Wow!

So this begs the question, are we finished with the white stuff this winter? Looking at past history, I wouldn’t quite put away the snow shovels just yet! While most of April looks warm, there’s always that chance of one more wintry event during the first 10 days of the month. Up north, I’m fully expecting at least one more snow event, which is fairly typical.

Overall, April is looking like it wants to be a warmer than normal month this year. As mentioned above, there may be one or two brief cool downs during the first 10 the days of the month, but then warm weather looks like it wants to take over. Could this actually mean that a “normal” spring is on the way this year?

Yes, I believe this April is going to be much warmer than last year, which will prompt flowers, grass and trees to begin to bloom on time for a change!

Though I said to myself that I would boycott viewing long range outlooks, I couldn’t help taking a sneak peek into our upcoming summer. Take it for what it’s worth, but many computer models are forecasting a hotter than normal summer this year…again!!

Just a word of caution, these are the same computer models that were showing a record cold & snowy winter for the east coast this past winter. We all know how that turned out!

Though the past two seasonal forecasts have busted, I will continue to move on! Nobody is perfect in this field. I can honestly say I did my very best, in what turned out to be unforeseen circumstances in the weather patterns!

Therefore, I will have my summer forecast on May 27th this year! I will have my winter review as to what went wrong, and overall grade around the middle of April. Better get the red pen out for that one!

We have all heard of the expression for March “comes in like a lion, but goes out like a lamb?” While this may not be true in some years, there may not be any better example of this than this year!

Remember how March began? Boston received it’s largest snowstorm of the season on March 4th, with between 12 and 16″ falling across the city! Cold winds kept us in the ice box until just about last week!

While we will have a couple unseasonably cold days this week, the weather towards the end of this week and to end March looks very lamb like!

It will be spring fever around these parts come Friday and Saturday! It’s not out of the question that many communities see their first 70 degree reading of the season!

Sadly, it’s time for our last ski and snow mobile forecast of the season! This is not to say all ski resorts are closing, some larger resorts try and stay open well into May! Many resorts are still reporting 5 foot bases, so this is going to take quite a bit of time to wind down. Overall, I would rate this season a solid 9 out of 10!

However, with April a week away, it’s time to start turning our attention to other outdoor activities such as hiking, camping and gardening.

Nonetheless, with this past weekends early spring storm, conditions could not be any better! In fact, with the warmer March sun, this can be some the best skiing of the season!

I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect fairly dry conditions up north this week. It will be cold through Wednesday, then moderate to above normal temperatures later Thursday through Saturday, only to cool off again by next Sunday. As I mentioned, I don’t see much in the way of precipitation until perhaps Sunday, when there could be a chance of rain or snow.

Now for our weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10 around here! Spring fever grips the region later this week!

Expect deep blue skies and brilliant late March sun for the rest of your day. Because the sunset is now after 7, you can still get out and enjoy a early evening walk in daylight! If you do, bring a jacket, as temperatures will be cooling off later today.

Tonight will feature clear and winter like cold temperatures! This may be the real last cold night of the season for Boston? Look for temperatures to fall into the tees in rural areas, and 20’s in the city.

Expect a cold start to your Tuesday. However, with the strong late March sun, expect temperatures to warm up close to 40 degrees during the afternoon. Still, this is a full 10 degrees below average for this date.

While still cold Tuesday night, it will not be as cold as tonight. Low temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than tonight, under clear skies.

The warm up will begin on Wednesday, where many locations will be pushing 50 degrees. However, a light onshore wind during the afternoon, will keep coastal communities holding in the low 40’s.

Watch for the dry weather to continue into Thursday, with even warmer temperatures. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures should push into the mid 50’s.

As a high pressure area moves off the coast on Friday, winds will turn into the southwest. This wind direction will help transport spring fever into our region. Expect a brisk wind warm wind, with temperatures moving well up into mid to upper 60’s, perhaps even flirting with 70 degrees in some communities away from the coast.

Temperatures are looking a bit tricky for this weekend. While Saturday may start off warm, a back door cold front could switch winds into the northeast and chill the coast off back to the upper 40’s during the day.

A storm moving through the region on Sunday could bring showers and cooler weather here in southern New England, and a period of rain or snow showers up in the mountains. I wouldn’t cancel any plans at this point, as this forecast is subject to change!

The first day of April may be on the chilly side, but signs are pointing to e warmer temperatures invading New England sometime later next week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your April outlook, and review how March turned out. I will also have a revised spring outlook for April and May.

Also, look for a new outdoor camping and hiking segment, as we turn the corner to spring! In the meantime, fingers crossed for no April Fools surprises this year!

Thanks for reading!

~Happy Greek Independence Day!~

Pete

Hello, Spring! 3/18/19

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! Overall, it was a very pleasant late winters weekend. After a very warm and springlike Friday, Saturday featured mainly sunny weather, but a gusty wind brought a distinct chill to the air, especially compared to Friday.

Sunday was a classic late winters day here in New England. While snow showers were prevalent up in the mountains, the coastal plain enjoyed bright sunshine amidst passing decorative cumulus clouds. It was brisk and cold, with high temperatures only in the mid to upper 30’s.

I hope everyone enjoyed their St. Patrick’s Day celebrations! Though it was a bit cold, it’s better than battling the snowy conditions Boston has had in recent years around this holiday.

It is almost with tradition, Boston either has the threat of snow, or actual snowfall on or around St. Patrick’s Day. I remember growing up, I could always count on one last snowstorm around this time of year. Kind of like winters send off, before spring takes over.

How did I spend my St. Patrick’s Day? Well, I decided to head to one of my favorite spots in New England, Nubble Lighthouse up in York, Maine. There’s something about that spot, that makes me feel so grateful to call New England my home!

Perhaps its the rugged Maine coastline, or the little red shed that sits behind the lighthouse? Or maybe it’s the fresh air, as I gaze out into the open Atlantic Ocean?

Whatever it may be, it’s cold out there! I was so happy I brought my winter coat, hat and gloves! With air temperatures only in the mid 30’s, a strong wind made it feel like it was in the teens with the wind chill!

If you don’t like to brave the elements, I would recommend visiting during calmer summer months, say June through September. While inland areas bake in summer heat, you will always find a refreshing breeze off the ocean, making it 10 to 15 degrees cooler there.

I have yet to be there during a major storm. My sister Pam and brother in law Michael have been, and said it’s wild! I can only imagine the massive waves crashing into the rocks, while ferocious winds batter the coastline!

Whoever visits from out of state, I always try and bring them up to York, Maine. I remember bringing my first cousin April there a couple summers ago, and she too fell in love with the spot. It’s a New England landmark!

Well, I believe congratulations are in order! We have made it through another long New England winter! Come Wednesday, at approximately 5:58 PM, spring officially arrives! On this day, both day and night will share equal time. At this point moving forward, the days will continue to lengthen, until we reach the summer solstice around June 20th.

I know all about the running joke around here…we don’t have a spring! Typically, we go from winter straight to summer, and skip spring. I would like to say that this is only a joke, and that’s not the way it really happens, but the sad realty, it’s predominately true!

Last year was a perfect example. After a volatile winter, with massive temperature swings from record cold to record warmth, we settled into a persistent colder than average pattern for March and all of April.

When May arrived, we skipped spring, and went right into summer weather! We had no spring.

After this winters seasonal forecast debacle, I’m very hesitant to make another seasonal forecast so soon. The wound is still fresh.

You can no longer rely on long range computer models for guidance. They have been just flat out wrong. Even to this point, long range models are showing a very warm April coming, while medium range models are showing otherwise. Very shaky.

But what does this exactly mean? Many want to know if we’re done with snow! Most folks can deal with a late season chill, they just don’t want to see any more of the white stuff!

The short answer to this question, is no. I don’t believe we have seen the last of snow. In more cases than not, we are still vulnerable for a bit more accumulating snow.

Computer models continue to show threats for snow and wintry weather right into the beginning of April. Not only that, but my intuition tells me that we are due for some kind of major spring snowstorm. The last real big one we had was way back 22 years ago, on April 1st, 1997.

My preseason winter forecast may not have worked out that well, but it still shows plenty of room left for accumulating snow according to my seasonal snowfall forecast.

Does this mean it has to happen? No, there’s an equal chance that winter is over, and we’re moving on to spring. If I’m sounding a bit wishy washy, I apologize. This is a extremely difficult time of year, as the seasons are in transition.

The bottom line, the pattern still looks volatile to me, at least through April 10th. Thereafter, I believe spring will slowly overtake New England in a more typical fashion, compared to last year.

What does a typical spring timetable look like around here? As mentioned above, sometimes it’s a real struggle! The further north and east you are in New England, the slower the process.

March is typically still a winter month around here. However, with the warming sun, crocuses are the first signs of spring. Later in the month, forsythia may begin to bloom. Most other flowers do not bloom yet, as there’s always a chance of a late season freeze or heavy snowfall.

April is the month when the show really gets going! If we get enough sun, most flowers begin to bloom. In Boston and along the coast, the final threat of a freeze is around the middle of April. For the interior of New England, this is about one month later.

You will notice the grass coming alive and turn green around April 10th. Depending on the year, trees begin to bloom the last 10 days of the month along the coast, but leaves generally wait until May to blossom. Last year, most trees remained dormant until the first week of May!

Now for your weekly ski and snow mobile forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Not much natural snowfall lately, but conditions are holding steady, despite the warm weather at the end of last week. This week looks colder.

There’s even the threat of natural snow later this week. It could be heavy, so check with latest forecast if you plan on driving up north. Temperatures look very comfortable for skiing, with highs generally in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Now for our local outdoor winter/spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect dry and chilly weather for today and tomorrow. While daytime highs will reach the lower 40’s, overnight temperatures will fall into the 20’s.

Expect the nicest day of the week to be Wednesday, which is also the first day of spring. Happy Spring! Look for a decent amount of sun, with temperatures mainly in the 50’s!

Also look for the full “Worm Moon” Wednesday night! Because the moon will be closer than normal to us, and will fall on the day of the equinox, expect higher than normal tides.

Latest computer models have suddenly developed a coastal storm on Thursday. Some computer models such as the European is intensifying this storm into a strong nor’easter Thursday night into Friday morning. This would be our first nor’easter of the year, if true.

One caveat, once one of the best models, the European has not been as reliable this year, for one reason or another.

However, should this storm develop, we would need to prepare for a lashing along the coast, with heavy rain, and strong winds. As it appears right now, the mountains of northern New England could see heavy wet snow from this storm.

It’s not out of the question, that even the high terrain of southern New England could see heavy wet snow, with an outside shot of some wet snow to the coast including Boston. Will need to monitor closely over the next couple days! I will update everyone if warranted.

If this storm does not materialize, expect blustery & chilly conditions towards the end of the week, with highs mainly in the 40’s.

At this point, the weekend looks to be dry and blustery, with chilly temperatures continuing. Daytime highs in the 40’s, and lows in the 20’s and 30’s.

There may be another brief warm up at the start of next week? Computer models are not in agreement at this time, but the prospects look good. Thereafter, we may need to deal with another storm? Welcome to spring in New England!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will take a better look at our spring forecast. I will also be on the look out for any other late season potential storms. I will also have a new outdoor spring activity forecast. In the meantime, spring is finally here…let’s hope for a prompt arrival this year!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

The Trend Is Your Friend! 3/11/19

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! It was quite an eventful weekend, with Saturday being the pick of the weekend weather wise. After we “sprung forward” Saturday night, Sunday could not of been more opposite, with a snowy morning, giving way to a rainy afternoon, and puddles of slush!

Many would of liked to of seen a beautiful early spring day on Sunday, to enjoy the longer daylight, and welcome spring! Unfortunately, this is typically not how it works around these parts.

Mother Nature doesn’t care about when the clocks change and what we think is ideal, spring will arrive in due time. Sometimes like last year, it doesn’t arrive at all. It goes straight from winter to summer. A New England tradition!

Getting back to yesterday’s snow, many ski resorts in northern New England did just fine, netting 3 to 6″ of wet snow, to an already deep snow base. It was a good day to hit the slopes, as it wasn’t too windy, nor was it bitterly cold.

So far, I would give this season a 9 out of 10 for skiers and snow mobiling. Plenty of natural snow, with very little rain or melting.

What a difference a week makes! It was just one week ago, that the Boston area woke up to it’s biggest snowstorm of the season! Many communities, including the city of Boston received between 12 and 16″ of heavy wet snow.

There were even a few reports of 17″ in some isolated areas. All this fell in only a 6 hour period! Quite impressive, indeed!

You would think with the strong March sun, most of this snow would be gone by this point. Nope! I still have a very impressive snow pack leftover from the storm.

So why did the about 5″ of snow melt the day of the storm, but very little since? I was chatting about this with some of my weather friends, and we discussed how the storm Sunday night, was more typical of a late March storm, rather than a late winter.

It was essentially a warm storm, that generated its own cold air in the upper atmosphere. Because the precipitation fell so hard, it was allowed the snowflakes to reach the ground and rapidly accumulate.

This despite temperatures remaining above 32 degrees for the entire duration of the storm at Logan Airport.

After the storm diminished, the mild weather dominated for the rest of Monday, allowing for the snow to settle, and begin to melt.

This was short lived, however. A sharp cold front crossed the region Monday night, bringing with it very low dew points, and bitterly cold air with it. There was very little melting for the remainder of last week.

Even when temperatures rebounded into the upper 30’s and low 40’s at the end of last week, the snowpack remained in tack. This was due to the extremely low dew points, which prohibited rapid snow melt, despite the mild temperatures.

This also debunks the theory that the early March sun is so strong, that snow doesn’t last this time of year, that it melts very quickly.

This is not true at all! If it’s cold enough, the sun is still too weak to melt the snow. I have always said, the first two weeks of March is still very much like winter here in southern New England.

No doubt, the sun is getting stronger. We can really begin to feel the difference once we reach the spring equinox. Any snow that falls thereafter, does not stick around too long.

But it can and will happen! Back in 1997 Boston got crushed by the infamous April Fools’ Blizzard, when between 24 and 36″ of heavy wet snow walloped the area!

While it didn’t turn particularly warm after that storm, I remember how bright and strong the April sun was, and all that snow was virtually gone in less than a week!

We can’t stop the seasons from changing! We are merely 9 days away from winters demise! At that point, both daylight and night time will have equal lengths.

From that point, we begin to rapidly gain more daylight, as the sun gets stronger, until we reach the summer solstice on Friday, June 21st this year. The days then begin to get shorter.

Some may begin to panic at that point, and think we’re immediately headed back to winter. The answer to this question is yes and no. Yes, we would begin losing daylight after the summer solstice arrives.

However, latent heating means we typically don’t see our warmest temperatures in coastal New England until later in July, and especially August. Sometimes even the first couple weeks of September.

Before we can even talk about summer, we must first pass the spring equinox, arriving in just nine days from today! I can see people are very excited with spring being just nine days away, by the amount of tweets and posts I see on social media.

Many of these are harmless. I understand, folks are tired of the cold and snow. But some are annoying. I’m seeing professional meteorologists relentlessly tweeting about the spring timetable, increased daylight, melting snow, warmer temperatures, all for retweets and likes to cater to the general public.

There’s no doubt these people have a warm bias in my opinion. I do not see the same enthusiasm as fall and winter approaches.

I do not think I would play well in the TV broadcasting business!

All I am saying, is that many try to evict winter prematurely. We live in New England. If folks want an early spring, maybe someplace like Georgia would be more suited for them?

That’s not to say we don’t have spring. We do, it just happens to be our shortest season, along with autumn. This is especially true in recent years, with seasonal shift occurring.

In recent years, the seasons have looked something like this: December through April is winter, spring is May, summer is June through October, and November is autumn. Sounds strange, but that’s how it’s been!

Many have been asking, will we see a normal spring this year? While the trend is our friend this week, with warmer weather, I’m already seeing the potential for a turn to colder temperatures, and possibly one more major storm between the 20th and 25th.

I called for a major storm at the beginning of March, and it happened. I am calling for one more storm, potentially the biggest of the season for Boston, in the time frame stated above.

Before everyone jumps off a cliff, seasonal forecasts are showing a total breakdown of winter this April, vacating it up into Canada, until next year! This would be a marked change from the endless cold weather of last April.

Skiing and snow mobile season is still going strong. I would give this week an 7 out of 10! Expect colder weather for the next couple days, then a burst of mild weather and spring skiing as we head towawards Thursday and Friday. There may be some showers to accompany that warmth on Friday, only to turn blustery and colder towards the end of the weekend, with generally dry conditions.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will give this week an 8 out of 10. Expect clear and somewhat colder temperatures for the rest of tonight, with lows mainly in the 20’s and low 30’s. Watch for more black ice tomorrow morning!

Tuesday and Wednesday should feature somewhat colder weather, with highs mainly in the 40’s, and overnight lows in the 20’s.

Thursday is looking like a fine day, with highs making up into the low to mid 50’s, with a mixture of sun and clouds.

A south wind will help transport warmer weather into New England on Friday. Therefore, expect temperatures to respond up into the lope 60’s! The warm weather will be associated with some showers, as a cold front crosses the region.

Saturday will be cooler, but certainly not cold. There will be a gusty breeze, which will make it feel cooler, but temperatures should still make it into the low 50’s, with a mixture of sun and clouds.

Right now, Sunday is looking Sunny, but colder as well, with highs only near 40. Happy St. Patrick’s Day to all!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will focus my attention on that last potential winter storm of the season. I will also have my spring outlook, for all my warm weather fans! In the meantime, keep hoping the trend continues to be your friend…at least for this week!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

The Lion Has Roared! 3/4/19

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! It may be March, but the weather has turned decidedly more like winter! A weak storm brought wet snow during Saturday, with many areas receiving between 2 and 5″.

Somewhat heavier amounts were noted across some areas of southeastern Massachusetts, but all in all, it turned out to be quite manageable. Sunday began with bright sunshine, but clouds tended to increase during the day.

Temperatures were on the pleasant side, with highs reaching the low 40’s. In the meantime, a much stronger storm began to gather down the coast.

As this storm began to intensify, snow rapidly began to spread up the coast, reaching Boston by 9 PM. It was sometime after midnight, when the real show began across the area!

After seemingly endless unfavorable storm tracks, when nearly all storms featured a mixture of sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain, this storm pulled out all the stops, and really socked the Greater Boston metropolitan area!

When I was younger, I would stay up for storms like this. My mom, being a night owl anyway, would sometimes stay up with me, watching the fury of Mother Nature.

For storm lovers, this storm could not of arrived at the absolute worst timing, with the peak intensity between 1 AM and 6 AM.

I had full intentions of waking up to watch this ultimate snow blitz bombarding the city. After one final check at 1:30 in the morning, I laid down “just to close my eyes.” Next thing I knew, I looked at the clock, and was surprised it was 6:30 in the morning, already!

At that moment, I felt like I was a kid again! I shuffled over to the window, pulled aside the curtain, and was very surprised as to how much snow had fallen!

Before I went to bed, I eyeballed about 3″ of accumulation, at approximately 1:30 in the morning. When I woke up, just 5 hours later, that amount had ballooned to 14″ where I live in West Roxbury! That is an average of 2″ per hour snowfall rates!

In fact, many neighborhoods across the city had similar accumulations of between 13 and 15″. Other hard areas were towns located to the west and southwest of Boston, where some communities such as Milford came in with 17″ of snow.

A Facebook friend of mine was kind enough to send me some pictures and videos from Canton. This town was one of the hardest hit communities, with 16 1/2″ of snow from the storm!

Along with many, I too was quite surprised with the intensity of the overperforming storm! That’s not to say that I didn’t notice the potential the storm was packing.

I could see the storm had the potential to hit some communities with a foot of snow. I mentioned it in my update yesterday.

But after a winter of underperforming storms, last second shifts, mixed bag events, I was not confident enough to announce widespread accumulations of 12 to 16″!

For one, the storm was moving so quickly. Second, temperatures were borderline yesterday, feeling more like spring than winter. Third, the storm had to come together at precisely the right time, to pull off such rapid accumulations in such a short period of time. Meteorologists call this “threading the needle.”

In the end, the storms intense dynamics came together at the precise time, literally clobbering the exact areas who have seen the least amount of snow this year!

If there were any red flags, you would only need to look at the horrible outbreak of tornadic activity in Alabama yesterday. Unfortunately, this resulted in nearly 30 fatalities in this region of the country.

The devastation from these tornadoes was shocking. After these storms dissipated, the energy raced up the coast, and actually may of helped to increase the intense snowfall rates last night, right here in Boston!

Some have been asking where we stand with snowfall this winter. Well, after last nights storm, my seasonal snow stands at 39.8″ thus far.

My annual average is roughly 50″ give or take an inch or so. Not bad, after such a sluggish beginning! One more storm, and it could end up being an average winter where I live.

Logan Airport has a bit more work to do. After this mornings storm of 10.6″ at the airport, Boston stands at a bit over 25″ for the season. We would need another 20″ of snow, just to get to average.

I mentioned it last week. The patterns this March look volatile. While we will have periods of springlike weather, the threat continues for another one or two snowstorms before we call it a season. It would not shock me if Boston ended up fairly close to average snow, when all is said and done!

Now for your weekly ski and snow mobile forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Not much new snowfall coming up this week, but it will be plenty cold enough for snow making and grooming to keep conditions acceptable.

Other than a few snow showers, the word for the week will be cold! Bundle up! A late week moderation will make things more comfortable. An approaching storm may bring a period of mixed precipitation by Sunday.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity winter forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10.

Expect clear and colder weather to move into the region tonight. Low temperatures will drop into the teens and 20’s by morning. With the melting snow from earlier today, be aware of black ice just about anywhere!

Tuesday will feature some sunshine new along with some variable cloudiness. It will be cold, with highs only near freezing. As a reinforcement shot of cold begins to move in, there may be some snow showers scattered about the region.

Even colder weather moves in tomorrow night! In fact, it will feel downright bitter by Wednesday morning, with lows in the single digits and teens.

Not much of a recovery is expected on Wednesday and Thursday for that matter, with ineffective sunshne, temperatures will only warm up into the mid to upper 20’s.

Friday will turn a bit milder, with highs back up into the 30’s. A week storm passing to our south couldmbrush some parts of our area with some light snow or mixed precipitation.

Whatever happens on Friday, Saturday should feature a bit more sunshine, along with temperatures approaching 40 degrees.

Another storm will oust likely track west of New England on Sunday. This should bring a warm front towards New England, and periods of rain and showers for us here in southern New England. If it arrives early enough, there may a brief mix, especially across the interior.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know if I see anymore winter storms in our future. I will also have your new ski and snow mobile forecast. It may also be time to start looking for the first signs of spring? In the meantime, let’s hope the next noise we hear out of March will be from a friendly lamb!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

March…In Like A Lion? 2/25/19

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! It was a split decision weekend, weather wise. Saturday was chilly, but featured plenty of filtered sun. Sunday was damp, and very April like, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s.

As has been the case throughout the entire winter, the story was different up north…specifically across the ski resorts, where snow fell throughout much of the day.

It wasn’t a huge storm, but it was a snowstorm nonetheless, with many mountains picking up between 4 and 8″. If you traveled far enough up into Maine, the amounts increased upwards to a foot or more!

Currently, northern Maine is on pace to break its snowiest season on record!

For example, Caribou has been buried, with a staggering 145.6″of snow so far this winter! I believe their snowiest winter on record was 197.8″ back in the 2007-08 winter. Due to its latitude, Caribou’s snow season can easily go on for another couple months!

This pales in comparison as to what’s going on out in the Sierra Mountain range in California. Mammoth Mountain, for example, has already received an astonishing 50 ft of snow this winter!

It’s almost inconceivable that computer models are forecasting another 12 ft of snow coming in the next 7 to 10 days.

Beyond that, forecast models continue to hammer the Sierra with below average temperatures, and well above average precipitation. It’s not out of the question that this could go down as their snowiest winter on record as well! The drought is officially over!

Making the unusual winter, even more unusual, how about snow in Los Angeles last week? It’s true! Many saw flakes flying in the hill towns surrounding the city! It has also snowed several times with accumulation in Las Vegas this winter.

Flagstaff, Arizona saw its snowiest day on record last week when 3 ft of snow fell in one day! It also snowed up to 6″ in Scottsdale, Arizona, which is considered the desert!

Other regions that have received unusually heavy snowfalls this winter has been in Greece of all places, Italy, Russia, Seattle, Minnesota, much of northern New England…pretty much everywhere except the I95 corridor from Boston to New York, points south and east.

Where do we go from here? The winter forecast has been a disaster up to this point, with not much time left for a rebound. Somehow, it verified exactly opposite as to what I had envisioned.

The very worst where I thought winter’s fury would be felt, is where the very least amount of snow has fallen.

This has not only been shocking to me, but to hundreds of other professional meteorologists and very talented amateur folks out there as well.

Before I completely jump off the cliff, I did want to remind everyone that winter is not over, just yet!

Obviously, at this point, the original winter forecast is not going to verify for Boston, and much of the I95 corridor for that matter.

However, as I have mentioned in recent posts, a strong endgame for the winter that wasn’t, is still on the table. A bit of redemption, perhaps?

While the parameters will not be perfect, I believe some of the factors holding back the severe winter that I was expecting along the I95 corridor will temporarily relax.

This is partly due to a strengthening El Niño, which should help build a ridge of high pressure (mild & dry) up into Alaska.

This in turn will help the cold air, which has been so persistant in the west, to press into the eastern part of the United States, including here in New England.

In addition, a very active sub tropical jet stream will continue to send plumes of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, across the southern tier of the country, into the Gulf of Mexico, then up the eastern seaboard.

Now, here’s the tricky part! All winter, this jet stream off the Pacific Ocean has been the dominant player, overpowering the colder Polar Jet.

This has been the number one reason why most of our storms this winter has turned to mixed precipitation, then rain. It’s definitely a fine balance.

Back last fall, I had envisioned the Polar Jet to be stronger. Had that happened, there would of been more phasing between the two streams, resulting in colder storms, and much more snow in the I95 corridor.

I don’t want to be “The Boy Who Cried Wolf,” but I believe we have a window of opportunity, between March 4th and the 11th, for these two streams to phase, resulting in one blockbuster blizzard for the same areas that have received the least amount of snow this winter.

Again, this is not wish casting. Hoping for a last second miracle. I have always maintained that I like to call it as I see it. While computer models are hinting at such an event, I have to use some of my intuition to go out on a limb, and make a call. I realize I also did this for my winter, which did not pan out so well.

However, I do have to admit, if this does happen, it would give me some feeling of redemption for the off the mark forecast made back in November.

Whether it happens or not, it will not take away the disappointment I hold from the original forecast. You may say, just chalk it up to a live and learn lesson in life. That’s very kind, but it goes much further than that.

We are talking about much larger forces at work here than just a life lesson. The amount of time, study and research that goes into a seasonal forecast, and to have it turn out the way it did, just proves more than ever, that Mother Nature is a force that can not be fully understood.

Nevertheless, I will continue to move forward! If anything, it will motivate me to work harder to understand the atmosphere and the patterns better for future forecasts!

Before I get to my forecast, I did have a quick weather history segment! Back in 1969, the infamous 100 hour snowstorm began in Boston. Yes! Heavy wet snow fell in Boston for 100 hours straight, from February 24th, to the 28th!

In the end, many communities around Boston received between 30 and 40″ of heavy wet snow. In parts of New Hampshire and Maine, many locations received over 50″ of snow, with some mountain locations receiving 100″ of snow! A record which still stands today!

Now for your weekly ski and snow mobile forecast. I will rate this week another 9 out of 10. Expect wintry weather conditions, with a chance for accumulating snow on Thursday, then again over the weekend. It will be cold throughout, with highs in the 20’s and 30’s.

By the way, many resorts are actually closed today due to the howling winds, and blinding snow squalls, especially in Vermont. I received a report from my friend Pete, who was up in northern Vermont, and he said the visibility was almost zero, with blowing snow!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Expect damaging westerly wind gusts this afternoon, as a intense storm tracks through Ontario. As mentioned above, the circulation around this storm will bring intense snow squalls to many mountains this afternoon, especially Vermont.

It will also bring damaging winds, with many power outages across Massachusetts, with winds between 50 and 60 mph, with some isolated gusts to 70. Temperatures will also be falling, dropping into the 20’s by evening.

Expect clear skies tonight, and very cold temperatures, with lows in the single digits and teens. Thankfully, winds will begin to subside.

Watch for sunny weather for your Tuesday. It will be cold, but without the strong winds, afternoon temperatures will not feel as harsh. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 20’s.

Tuesday night will feature fair and cold conditions, with lows in the single digits and teens.

Watch for a sunny start, but with increasing clouds on Wednesday. Temperatures should moderate some with highs in the middle 30’s with light winds.

A fast moving storm originating from the west coast will track nearly due east, and will pass just south of New England early Thursday. This storm has the potential to bring 3 to 6″ of snow across much of Massachusetts, including Boston.

This may include southern areas of New Hampshire, including the seacoast region. Due to the fast movement, I am not anticipating any school closings on Thursday. Perhaps some delays.

Any snow will end early Thursday, with some clearing possible as the day progresses. It will continue to be chilly, with highs in the middle 30’s.

Expect a fairly tranquil day for Friday, with highs moderating to perhaps near 40 degrees.

A storm that originally looked like it was going to track west of New England bringing us rain this weekend, now appears as if it wants to try and track south of us. This would make a big difference in precipitation types, as it would introduce the chance of more frozen types of precipitation across the area.

Right now, this does not look like it’s going to be a big storm. But a disruptive type of an event is possible, with a wintry mix of precipitation. I will monitor closely in case this scenario changes, and will update everyone if I feel the need.

As mentioned above, we are entering to what I believe will be a highly volatile pattern next week. I will be closely monitoring the evolution of this potential, and keep you updated as conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my review of February, and preview the month of March. I will also have a new ski and snow mobile forecast. I will also be updating on what I think could be the storm of the winter? In the meantime, you know what the saying says, “March…comes in like a lion, but goes out like a lamb!” Something to look forward to!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Full “Snow” Moon! 2/19/19

Hello! So sorry about the delay! I had a major computer snafu yesterday! I had written a detailed blog earlier, when I clicked the publish button, something went terribly wrong, and the whole blog was deleted!

I believe my Word Press needed to be updated, and it was not saving the draft. After I hit publish, it was too late, and lost the whole thing. It was a terrible feeling! As they say…technology these days!

I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday weekend! It was a pleasant weekend, weather wise. Saturday was a taste of spring, with highs in the upper 40’s. Sunday was colder, but still a nice day to be out and about.

A weak storm system brought Boston’s largest snowfall of the season late Sunday night and early Monday, with many locations picking up between 3 and 6″ of snow across the city, and points south.

The storm was noteworthy in Boston, as it was the first storm of the season that remained all snow. Every other system has featured a mix of sleet, freezing rain, or just changed to plain rain.

Due to severe time limitations, I’m going to have to get straight to the weekly forecast. There’s no way I can retrieve all the information I had written in the blog earlier today. It’s been a very frustrating day, to say the least! With any luck, I will resume my regular schedule next Monday.

Here’s your ski snow mobile forecast. After last years blowtorch on school vacation week, this year is proving to be much more wintry. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10! Expect sunny and cold weather for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

A storm will be approaching later Wednesday and will bring some snow with it late at night into Thursday morning. There may be some mixed sleet or freezing rain, after a few inches of snow. Friday’s and Saturday look dry and seasonable, only to be followed by more snow and mixed precipitation on Sunday.

Now for our local outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect sunny and chilly weather for your Tuesday, with highs in the upper 20’s and low 30’s.

Look for the full “snow” moon rising in the eastern sky Tuesday evening. As a bonus, the moon will be in perigee, it’s closest proximity to earth. They say it’s 30% brighter, and I can attest for everyone, it is magnificent!

The moon shine against the freshly fallen snow was breathtaking! It had that bluish tint against the snow. Must of looked even better across the countryside of New England, reflecting off the freshly fallen snow.

Enjoy the full “snow” moon, named by the Native American Indians, after they noted heavy snowfalls frequently occurring during February.

Tuesday night will be clear and cold, with lows mainly in the teens.

Wednesday will start out Sunny and dry, but increasing clouds will lead to a snowy looking sky by evening, And in fact, watch for snow spreading from southwest to northeast after the Wednesday evening commute.

It may snow for a few hours, but just like all its predecessors, the snow is going to turn to sleet, then rain along the coast, shortly after midnight. North and west of Rt 128, temperatures may remain below freezing, which could result in more freezing rain.

Thursday may start off icy inland, but just wet along the coast. Skies should begin to clear after noontime, as the storm pulls away. Temperatures will not be cold, with highs near 45.

Expect fair and cold weather Thursday night, but nothing unusual for this time of the year.

Friday and Saturday should also feature dry weather, with highs mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Yet another storm will be approaching from the southwest Saturday night. This too may also begin with some mixed precipitation, but is also destined to go over to rain around here by Sunday. This sounds like a broken record!

Well, that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog (fingers crossed), I will have your new ski and snow mobile forecast. I will also be on the lookout for any potential snowstorms in this otherwise meager winter. In the meantime, if you like snow, then February is your month…they named a moon after it!

Thanks for reading!

Happy Birthday to my niece, Nicole! A true winter birthday!