Summer 2017: Warm…But Wet! 5/22/17

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend! After a very unusual May heat wave, temperatures cooled back to seasonable levels this past weekend. In fact, some said it even felt a bit chilly Saturday night!

I was very pleased that showers and thunderstorms stayed away from the region for proms and graduations this past weekend! Although there was a strong thunderstorm late Friday evening, it didn’t interfere with any outdoor activities.

I had high confidence of a day or two of hot weather coming. What I was very surprised at, was that a full fledged heat wave engulfed the region. It started on Wednesday, with  temperatures certainly becoming much hotter than anticipated, when highs reached 92 degrees!

Thursday was supposed to be the hot day, and boy was it ever! Temperatures soared to a record high of 95 degrees in Boston! Some places approached the hottest temperatures ever recorded in May!

The heat lingered on Friday, with Boston reaching 90 degrees once again! With three consecutive days reaching 90, this was an official heat wave!

Friends and family were asking me if this was unusual. The short answer to this question is, yes! On average, we typically see only one day of 90 degree heat in May.

However, an official heat wave during May is extremely rare! Since 1972, this was only the third heat wave ever recorded in Boston. Even more impressive, this was also the second earliest heat wave ever recorded in the city!

If you havn’t noticed, the pattern has been extreme! Just a few days earlier, many areas of northern New England had snow falling on Mother’s Day! In fact, Mt. Washington got clobbered, with a whopping 33″ of snow! Many other areas in Vermont and New Hampshire also received snow that day.

I like to do research, and look at other years in the past, that closely compares to this year. This is known as analog research. The year that most closely resembled this year, was May, 1977!

In that year, we also had a memorable Mother’s Day snowstorm. Much like this year, we also had a burst of extremely hot temperatures in the mid 90’s shortly after that storm!

With the early season heat wave, you may think a very hot summer is coming. It’s only natural to think this. It’s similar to if we got a a snowstorm in November. Many would think that a brutal winter was ahead. However, this is not always the case!

Unlike last year, the patterns this year are more volatile, and will feature more changeable conditions. Last year, I was very confident in a hotter than average summer. The parameters were pointing towards heat! And indeed the heat came.

In an average summer, Boston averages about 14 days of 90 degree weather. Last year, we managed to rack up 22 days! This was despite a cool start to the season.

As it has been the past couple summers, the heat arrived later in July and especially in August. We’ve even had unusually hot weather lingering into September the past couple years!

In summer 2015, we had a building record El Nino. This flooded the country with unusually warm weather beginning in late July, and extended all the way until the end of the year!

Last summer, we had a strengthening La Nina. Although the forces are different, the end result was a much warmer than normal late summer and fall season. Although not as warm as the year before.

This summer, we have neutral conditions in the Pacific, with tendancy leaning towards weak El Nino. These type of summers bring us highly variable conditions.

I am expexting our hottest weather this summer to be in June and July, with a noticeable cool down as we head into August and September.

Long range computer models are hinting at a cooler than normal outlook, as well as above average rainfall in the middle of the country this summer.

With a trough (cool & rainy), set up in the middle of the country, this leaves the east coast susceptible to a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry). However, signals are weak over New England. Meaning it could go either way here.

With ocean temperatures continuing to be warmer than normal off the east coast, I’m going to average the two extremes together. Therefore, I’m expecting a warm summer this year, just not as hot as last year. I’m also expecting more rain this summer! I’m expecting is brief bursts of hot weather, puncuated by cooler air masses.

With the clash of air masses, I’m expecting many more showers and thunderstorms than last summer. This also means a much greener summer around here than last year! This should make gardners and farmers happy!

It’s difficult to say when the inclement weather will occur. Just be prepared to plan accordingly this summer. It will not be as stable as last summer’s tranquil patterns. Please check the weekly forecast to make plans for outdoor activities!

I do not want to discourage anyone! We will have stretches of beautiful summer weather! Remember when I said it’s all about timing! If the rainy weather occurs during the weekdays, and the weekends are nice, this will make many happy!

So just how hot can we expect it to be? I like to base how hot our summer is, by how many 90 degree days we receive. Amazingly, we already had 3 of them…and the summer solstice is still nearly a month away!

After reviewing as much data as I could, I’m expecting a slightly warmer than normal summer this year in Boston. But somewhat cooler than last year.

This means, you can expect between 14 and 17 days that feature 90 degree + temperatures this year. We’ve already had three of them! Past couple years, summer has gotten off to a slow start. I’m expecting the bulk of the hot weather to occur in June and July, and cool off in August this year.

What could go wrong? Unlike previous years, I’m concerned this could tilt towards a cooler summer than presently forecasted. I would say there’s a 60% chance of this happening.

The atmosphere seems to be fighting between warm and cool right now. After nearly two years of above average temperatures and dry weather in Boston, the pattern seems to be slowly evolving to a cooler one.

The change began in March, but has been fluctuating since. I’m still expecting a large scale pattern change to cooler and stormier weather. But this should hold off until autumn, as I see it now. Until then, we should continue with surges of heat, puncuated by cooler periods.

With that being said, there’s also a 40% chance that the summer could be a bit hotter than expected. It’s really difficult to tell until the summer pattern establishes itself. I may have a quick update to this summer forecast around the time of the summer solstice.

Now for your hiking and camping forecast. Expect unsettled weather, with areas of rain later tonight and early tomorrow. Also Thursday night into Friday, then again on Sunday possibly into early Monday.

Not ideal, but there will be some dry weather in between. It will also be much cooler than last week. Plan your trips accordingly.

Now for your regional outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Overlall, it will be unsettled, but not entirely a washout.

Expect cloudy weather for the rest of today. A bit later, showers and areas of rain will begin to develop. It will be on the cool side, with highs in mid to upper 50’s.

Look for more wet weather tonight into early tomorrow morning. It will be cool and damp, with lows near 50. Later tomorrow, we may see some bightening of the skies, with highs near 70 inland, but only around 60 along the coast.

Another wave of low pressure will pass south of the region tomorrow night. If this come close enough, it may spread rain back into at least the south coast, and possibly up to Boston.

This should clear out early Wednesday. If things go according to plan, the sun may come out, and it may turn out to be quite a nice afternoon. It will be on the cool side, with highs mainly in the 60’s.

Thursday may start dry, but clouds will be on the increase during the day. With onshore winds, it will be on the cool side, with highs only in the upper 50’s.

Yet another storm will be approaching Thursday night into Friday. This looks more like a winter type scenerio than spring. A low pressure system will be developing south of New England, spreading rainy and damp weather through much of Friday.

It will be on the cold side, with highs only in the 50’s. If we’re lucky, the rain may stop in time for proms Friday evening. Very iffy about that, at this point. Sorry, Olivia! Have fun just the same!

At this point, the holiday weekend looks shaky at best. Saturday may start damp, only to brighten up in the afternoon. Another storm may approach on Sunday, bringing more showers. This storm may linger into early Monday. Temperatures look cool, with highs mainly in the 60’s.

Whether it dries out or not in time for Memorial Day is still questionable. I don’t believe there will be much beach weather regardless this weekend. If it’s not raining, it will be just too chilly to be on the beach. I hope I’m wrong about that!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will hopefully have a much brighter Memorial Day forecast for everyone! I will be reviewing the month of May, and have a preview for June.

I will also begin my weekly beach and boating forecast! In the meantime, summer is coming this year, but keep the sweaters close by just in case!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Beach, Thursday? 5/16/17

Hello! Happy Mother’s Day! I hope everyone got to spend some time with mom yesterday.  Also keep those in mind who are less fortunate. There are many whose mom’s have passed, or are estranged from their families. While many celebrate, it can be a difficult time for others.

How about that weather? Not to give myself a pat on the back, but this storm was well forecasted from last Monday. However, it was nothing to celebrate over. Heavy wet snow plastered Mother’s Day flowers in many elevated areas of northern New England yesterday. Mt. Washingtn racked up a whopping 22″ of snow!

Meanwhile, a soaking mist and drizzle kept it very damp here in southern New England. And it wasn’t just the rain. We had a fire going at my brother in laws house all day yesterday! Temperatures never made it out of the 40’s, with a stiff northeast wind. Had a feel of Thanksgiving!

And it could of been worse. The storm did not intensify as quickly as computer models were showing. Had it gotten its act together sooner, that wet snow could of been more prevelant in the hills closer to Boston!

All in all, the weather left a lot to be desired for. In fact, they are calling it the worst Mother’s Day weather since 2008…that’s nearly 10 years ago.

Many of my family members are fed up with this weather. Nor’easters, back door cold fronts, sleet, wet snow, frosts, they’ve had enough! And I’m sure I speaking for the majority of folks here in New England, too!

Each time we meet, I have to give them a refresher course in how the weather works. It seems these days most people have very short memories, when it comes to the weather.

Contrary to what you may feel, it’s still very early in the season. We are still nearly 5 weeks away for the the summer solstice. So we officially still have about a third of spring to go.

I know, it was in the mid 70’s in February, and mid to upper 80’s on Easter. However, these bursts of heat simply can’t sustain itself so early in the season here in New England.

Ocean temperatures take longer to heat up in than the land in the spring. Half of eastern New England sticks out into the Atlantic Ocean. As warm air rises over the land, cool air masses can easily rush in off the ocean along the coastal plain. This keeps us much cooler than areas to our southwest.

In addition, we’ve enjoyed nearly 2 full years of above average temperatures and below average precipitation here in Boston. This included possibly one of the best summers you’ll ever experience around here last year.

Last summer was the driest on record here in Boston. This contributed to one of the worst droughts we’ve experienced in Boston since the 1960’s.

In addition, we managed to compile 22 days of 90 + degree heat. This is some 8 more than normal. I don’t think many will remember it for the excessive heat, but just consistantly very warm days.

Like previous years, the majority of this heat came in later July, August and even into September. They called last summer the “endless summer” as the warmer and drier than normal weather extended deep into November.

So what do I mean when I say many folks don’t understand how the weather works? This is a bit of a complicated statement. Many people just open up the shade to see what the weather is doing that day. And that’s how they tell what the weather is going to be for that day.

In many respects, I do the same thing. However, I also study the weather, and remember similar patterns which occurred over the years.

For instance, WBZ meteorologist Eric Fisher made an analogy to this years Mother’s Day, and the one back in 1977. In that year, we actually had a similar storm off our coast, which produced heavy wet snow, even here in Boston! Later that month, temperatures soared inot the 90’s in Boston! Guess what the temperatures are going to do this Thursday?

Does this mean every analog year, is the exact same, with similar results? No, but you can definitely see how Mother Nature repeats cycles, and similar patterns.

As  I mentioned earlier, we also go through cycles in patterns. After two years of consistantly above normal temperatures and below average precipitation, I believe the pattern has shifted. For so many months, the pattern was as predictable as the sun rising each day. It was just locked in, month after month.

However, starting this past March, it appears there has been a shift in this stable pattern. Although April rebounded above average again, I believe the patterns are going to be more volatile heading forward into this summer and next fall.

For one reason or another, the stable warm and dry patterns have broken down. It’s hard to say the exact reason why, other than that it’s just Mother Nature beginning to balance the extremes out. Does this mean 2 years of colder than normal weather, and above average precipitation. I don’t think so, but it has happened before.

With the teleconnections the way they’re at globally, I can see a volatile pattern setting up, with periods of hot & dry weather, puncuated by cooler and wetter times. This may be the theme moving forward into this summer.

Speaking about this summer, my official summer forecast will be officially published just one week from today! Wow, does time go by quickly! I’m expecting a much different summer this year around here. This does not mean it’s going to be a cold & rainy summer!

However, because it was so dry last summer. I’m afraid any rainy periods will make some folks feel as if it were rainier than normal. Everything is relative, and timing is very important.

If it rained on the weekends, and were sunny during the weekdays, many would be disappointed. If it were vice versa, more would be pleased, while other still disappointed. Moral of the story, you can’t make everyone happy! And Mother Nature does not play favorites!

Now for your camping and hiking forecast. This will turn out to be a much better week for outdoor activities. Prepare for summer weather on Thursday, a slight cool down thereafter, then warming up again later in the weekend. Little if any rain to be worried about this week. Maybe a few showers in the hills on Friday.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a solid 8 out of 10. Expect blustery and cool weather tonight, under clearing skies. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40’s.

Tomorrow will turn out to be a beautiful day! Look for plenty of sunshine, and warmer temperatures. Afternoon highs will be nearly perfect, at around 76 degrees.

Tuesday night will feature clear skies and mild temperatures, with lows mainly in the 40’s and 50’s.

Watch for temperatures to be about 10 degrees warmer on Wednesday, with mainly sunny skies. This means to expect temperatures in the mid 80’s or so.

Anyone up for a trip to the beach on Thursday? Expect mid summer conditions, with hazy, hot and humid weather! Temperatures should soar into the lower 90’s. The record high temperature is 91 degrees. I believe we have a shot at a record high temperature of 93 degrees. Wow!

A weak cool front will traverse the region early Friday. This front looks to be mainly dry, but temperatures should be about 15 degrees cooler than Thursday, with a breezy north wind, and highs in the mid 70’s.

The cooler weather looks to continue on Saturday, with highs mainly in the 60’s to very low 70’s, under dry conditions.

There may be a few more clouds around on Sunday, but I’m expecting mainly dry weather overall, and highs back into the mid 70’s.

Well that’s about it for now! Sorry for the late post, today! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing my attention on my complete summer forecast! I will also have your Memorial Day weekend forecast! In the meantime, see everyone at the beach!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It Could Be Worse…Remember This? 5/8/17

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! It was yet another split decision in the weather department around here. While Friday and Saturday were pretty much washouts, Sunday turned out to be a decent day, with a mixture of sun and clouds, with temperatures in the mid 60’s.

It wasn’t all bad. After morning rain on Saturday, there were some sunny breaks during the afternoon. This allowed temperatures to warm up, making it feel more like spring. Some areas to the southwest of Boston really had quite a spectacular day.

I don’t want to make it sound better than what it was, however. There were many outdoor activities planned for Saturday morning around the region, that had to be either cancelled, or delayed.

Ahhh, spring in New England! Just when you thought we were in the clear, the dreaded Greenland Block shows up! Yes, this typically means cooler and unsettled weather for us here in New England. But, as some of my astute readers pointed out last week, it’s better to get this pattern here in May, than in the middle of July!

Many friends and family members have been asking me when I think warmer weather will arrive. I wish I had a precise date when this may occur. However, Mother Nature is on a timetable, and only she knows the true answer!

Many of us, including myself, have a tendency to rush the seasons. I, for one, always start looking for cold and snowy weather in November.

Due to latent heating and cooling, November is milder than one would think here in coastal New England, delaying severe cold and snow until December, sometimes even January.

It takes longer for the oceans to cool off in the fall, keeping the coast milder deeper into the winter.  This is part of the seasonal shift we have seen as of late. Fall extends deeper into winter, and winter extends into spring.

When will real summer show up?  It’s still very early in the season to expect sustained summer temperatures. Keep in mind, the summer solstice is still a good 6 weeks away!

Sometimes, Mother Nature keeps us waiting right up until the solstice, to reveal true summery weather. Each season is different from one year to the next. Sometimes, we have “off” years. Meaning summer is quite unsettled and cooler than normal.

The last summer I can remember like that was in 2009. I remember that summer featured a very active volcano in Alaska. This could of contributed to aerosols in the air, blocking out the suns radiation, resulting in weather that felt more like fall, than summer!

The same thing happens in winter. Some years, we have very mild winters with little snow to speak of. The reasons for this are more complex. Factors such as El Nino and La Nina play an important role. But other conditions such as solar radiation, snow cover, and jet stream patterns also have significant impacts on our winter patterns.

What about this summer? Are we finally going to break out of this very wet and at times chilly pattern? I believe we are. However, I also believe that the patterns this summer are going to be much more volatile than the stable, dry weather patterns of last summer.

This means we can expect a wetter summer, than last year. As I have mentioned before, that’s not saying much! Boston experienced it’s driest summer on record last summer!

I also believe it’s going to be cooler. Boston reached or eclipsed 90 degrees 22 times last summer! I don’t have that number nailed down just yet! Tune in to the official summer forecast just 2 weeks from today for a detailed outlook!

What about the rest of May? Folks are getting anxious to get some nice weather around here!  I fully understand. After a warmer than normal April, May seems to have taken a step backwards.

This is pretty typical, especially when a Greenland Block develops. The Greenland Block can develop this time of the year, beacause of a changing jet stream. In winter, the jet stream is stronger, and faster.

In spring, the jet weakens, becomes more sluggish. This allows high pressure to develop over Greenland, and can create stalled, blocking patterns to linger for days across the northeast.

In some cases, we are on the good side of the block, with fair and dry weather. In this case, the storm that passed by on Friday and Saturday is still sitting and spinning directly over New England.

Think of it like a big ferris wheel spinning counter clockwise up in the sky. This is what they call an upper level low, not one on the surface. Upper level lows can create unsettled weather in their own right.

Over the next couple days, you will notice the sunniest weather will be first thing in the morning. As the sun heats the ground, warm air will rise and cool & condense as it collides with the cold air aloft.

Threatening dark clouds will form, along with the possiblity of showers and even small hail during the afternoon. In higher elevations, these showers may fall as snow!

I’m expecting this block to linger for about another 10 days. This does not mean it’s going to be rainy and cold all the time. I am expecting the block to relax at times, to allow for some fair weather.

This may happen later this week, for example. Later in the weekend, a coastal low pressure system may threaten eastern New England with rain and wind on Sunday.

This storm may linger into the first part of next week as well. Thereafter, the block may weaken, and begin to lift out, so by May 20th or so, we may be enjoying some real summertime weather!

In the “it could be worse” department, we go back in time 40 years ago this week. A very unusual late season snowstorm struck much of Massachusetts, except southeastern Ma. and Cape Cod. Patterns were similar to what we have this week. The difference was that the upper level low “captured” a surface low south of New England.

This created a slow moving, strong storm east of Boston. As heavy precipitation fell, it pulled the cold air down to the surface. The result? Nearly 2 feet of heavy wet snow fell on foliated trees across higher elevations of Massachusetts, resulting in massive power outages, and devastating tree damage.

Even Worcester, Ma. received 1 foot of wet snow. Snow also fell in lower elevations, right to the Massachusetts coast. While only a half inch fell at Logan Airport, much more snow fell across the remainder of the city, and surrounding suburbs.

I recall a neighbor using a broom to hit the heavy wet snow off the leafed trees in his yard. While 2 or 3″ fell in my area, up to 7 to 10″ fell just to the north, west and even southwest of Rt 128. It was the latest snowfall on record for Boston to this day!

Now for your camping and hiking forecast. Expect unsettled and fairly cold conditions for this time of the year, this week in much of New England, especially up north. If you are camping in the mountains, you may wake up to a dusting of snow on some mornings!

Elsewhere, expect building afternoon clouds with a chance of afternoon showers, especially tomorrow and Wednesday. With the cold air aloft, I can’t rule out some pea size hail. The weather may improve later in the week, only to deteriorate with the threat of rain again on Sunday.

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. With the upper level storm stalled over New England, the pattern will be fairly predictable through at least Thursday.

Therefore, expect similar weather each day.  For the period from today through Thursday, expect some sun in the mornings, only to give way to building afternoon clouds, along with the chance of afternoon and evening showers.

I am not expecting any washouts here, just nuiscance scattered showers. Worse case scenerio is a quick downpour with some small hail…but that too should pass. On the bright side, be on the lookout for late afternoon rainbows towards the east!

It will be on the chilly side, with highs only in the lower to mid 50’s during the day, and 30’s and 40’s at night, with areas of frost across the interior.

As we move towards Friday and Saturday, the weather may improve somewhat, with more sunshine, and temperatures warming up into the 60’s.

Questions and concerns arise as we head into Mother’s Day. Everyone, including myself would love a beautiful, warm, sunny day.

However, latest computer models are developing a coastal storm along the mid-atlantic region. This storm is progged to move northeast, passing south and east of New England, and turning it into a late season nor’easter.

Thankfully, it doeas not appear cold enough for snow, but it could be a windswept cold rain. YUCK! It’s still 6 days out, and there still a chance that this storm misses. At this point, I would say 70% chance of a washout, 30% chance of a miss. I hope I’m wrong!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let everyone know just when to expect some summer weather to finally break through! I will also have a few more thoughts leading up to my summer forecast just two weeks from today! In the meantime, look for those rainbows! You can’t see them looking down!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Mother’s Day!~

Happy May Day! It’s Summer Now…Right? 5/1/17

Hello! I can’t believe it’s May, already! Where is the time going? By the looks of it outside this morning, it feels and looks more like March than May. Nothing like walking out to a cold northeast wind, and drizzle on the first day of May! Ugh!

It was another split decision weekend across much of New England. Friday and Saturday were nothing short of spectacular, with summertime temperatures, and thoughts of going to the beach on everybody’s mind.

Sunday, Mother Nature threw a curve ball at us, with mainly cloudy skies, some scattered showers, and much cooler temperatures! Jackets and long pants were needed!

Many friends ask me, now that we’re into May, it’s summer now, right? Wrong! At this point, most folks are chomping at the bit to get summer going! With temperatures in the 80’s on Friday and Saturday, most people are ready to get the show on the road!

I often say March is the cruelest month. But make no mistake about it, May is right behind it! Much like November is the transition month to winter, May is much the same being a transition month to summer.

You would think with the trees blooming, flowers popping everywhere, and grass ready for mowing, that the warm weather is here to stay. Well, in some years, it does stay. This year does not look like one of those years. Sorry!

After a very chilly March, the warm patterns over the past couple years resumed in April. Temperatures averaged over 3 degrees above the longterm averages.

With the warmth, April was also a very wet month, with nearly double the amount that typically falls this time of the year. This is in stark contrast to last year, when our drought was kicking into high gear.

Now that we’re in May, it appears Mother Nature is going to pull the old switch a roo on us, again! In an untimely fashion, the dreaded Greenland Block is beginning to establish itself this week.

This means high pressure is building over Greenland. This forces the jet stream south of New England. This not only allows colder than normal weather to establish itself along the coast, but it also means storms get forced south of New England, resulting in cold, rainy weather for eastern New England. I am expecting this block to linger for at least the first two weeks of May.

This, and addition to latent heating and cooling, keeps eastern New England cooler than other areas to our south and west. Remember, the coaen takes longer to heat up than the land. As the air rises over the land, cooler air rushes in along the coast from the ocean. This means persistant chilling sea breezes keep it chilly along the coast deep inot the spring.

As I have mentioned in previous posts, the last 21 out of 24 months have featured above average temperatures here in Boston.

With some exceptions, we have experienced stable weather patterns, with above average temperatures for the better part of two years now. Last summer, much of Massachusetts experienced severe drought conditions, which lingered into the fall.

Is another large scale pattern change ready to take hold? For sure, the storms resumed back at the beginning of the new year. With several months of above normal precipitation, drought concerns have eased across the region.

But this is not the end of the story. Many cities and towns still hold a large deficit from dry years previous to last year. If drier than normal patters return this summer, the drought could return rather quickly.

With that being said, the weather patterns moving forward look much more unstable, and volatile than last summer. At least the first two weeks of May are looking rather cold and on the stormy side. Overall, I’m expecting a cooler than normal month, with above average rainfall.

After a major rain storm moves through New England at the end of this week, a large cold vortex is going to linger across the region. It would not shock me to here of reports of snow up in the higher elevations of New England next weekend! Skiing, anyone?

Long range outlooks for the summer are changing on a daily basis. As I mentioned earlier, patterns are looking more unstable this year.

While it’s looking wetter, it appears we also have the opportunity for some hot weather too, especially in the months of June and July. I am not expecting an endless summer like the past couple. It’s looking shorter this year, with cooler weather arriving during August. Enjoy it while we have it!

In addition, I’m expecting a overall major shift in the global circulation by next fall. This could lead us to a much colder and snowier winter on the way next year.

I’m getting a bit ahead of myself here!  But my specialty is seasonal outlooks! These forecasts are still all preliminary. My official summer forecast will be published just three weeks from today!

Yesterday, a special friend surprised me and took me to the Museum of Science to the Omni Show, “Extreme Weather!” Wow! was that exciting!  Thank you, so much!

There were other fun things to see, but for me, this was the highlight of the visit. If you havn’t been to the museum in recent years, I highly recommend taking the kids, and spending an afternoon there! Great fun, and very educational!

Now for your camping and hiking forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Expect a major storm later this week, with possibly flooding rains, on Friday, then blustery and colder weather next weekend, with showers of rain, hail and even snow up in the mountains. Yikes!

Now for your general spring outdoor activity forecast. I am rating this week a 4 out of 10. While areas southwest of Boston may warm up into the 60’s this afternoon, this will not be the case here in the city, points northeast. A persistant northeast wind will keep us cloudy and cool, with areas of mist and fog. Highs in Boston will only reach the very low 50’s.

Expect generally cloudy weather tonight. As a cold front approaches, there is a chance of some scattered showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms. It will become increasingly foggy, along with the areas of patchy drizzle. Low temperatures will range from the 50’s south of Boston, to the 40’s north of Boston.

After some early showers on Tuesday, the rest of the day should feature increasing sun, along with warmer temperatures. If things work out according to plan, tomorrow could be the best day of the week, with highs soaring into the 70’s!

A weak disturbance will be tracking through the region on Wednesday, which may generate more clouds, and a slight chance of a shower. However, 90% of the region appears as if it will remain dry. With the clouds and brisk wind, temperatures will settle back into the mid to upper 60’s.

Watch for increasing and thickening clouds on Thursday. A slow moving storm system will be appraoaching the area late in the day. Expect rain to move into the area from west to east later in the afternoon.

A strong storm for this time of the year will be affecting the region from Friday through next Sunday. Expect periods of heavy rain on Friday into Friday evening, along with gusty winds. If you have plans for Friday, expect a washout, with localize street flooding.

Periods of rain may linger into Friday night. Later at night, the heaviest rain looks like it’s going to move east of our area. A dry slot may punch into eastern New England on Saturday.

However, with cold air aloft, any early sun will generate building clouds with showers during the afternoon. It will be chilly, with highs only in the 50’s.

If you’re planning on being in higher elevation areas, look out for showers of rain, hail and snow this weekend! Expect similar weather on Sunday. Not very May like, at all!

Well, that’s about all for today! In next week’s blog, I will update our unsettled May outlook, just in case things change. I will also have some new information on my summer forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the nice days when we have them, you never know when it can turn extreme!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Another Gloomy Stretch! 4/24/17

Hello, everyone! It was a tale of two seasons this past weekend. Friday and Saturday were cold & wet. Our luck changed on Sunday, when the weather turned sunny & mild.

I was happy we got a couple nice bonus days last week, but the end of the week and start of the weekend, proved my forecast of last week had validity!

Friday turned cold, with a windswept rain and drizzle, pretty much all day. Saturday was not much better, with a cold wind, and off and on showers. Memories of Easter Sunday made many think whether it was just a dream?

Sunday was the complete opposite, and proved to be a stellar spring day, with 100% of the possible sunshine, light winds, and temperatures mainly in the 60’s! This was perfect timing for the 11th annual Shamrock Shootout held on Temple Street in West Roxbury, yesterday.

This is a street hockey tournament for the kids in the Parkway area. The event is typically held around St. Patrick’s Day. However, due to snowy and icy conditions this year, the event had to be postponed until yesterday.

With the spectacular weather, a fun time was had by all! It was a perfect day to have get yourself a delicious ice cream from Nona’s ice cream truck, and watch the kids have fun playing street hockey!

If you missed the truck, you can visit Nona’s in their Hingham and  Scituate Harbor locations, for the best homemade ice cream in New England!

My friend Tom and his wife Chrissy pride themselves in outstanding customer service, and the freshest, natural ingredients to make the best ice cream around! Trust me, it’s worth the trip!

Moving on to our ever changing weather patterns! I recall, last spring was very dry! We were just beginning one of the driest stretches in weather history around Boston. In fact, last summer was the driest on record in Boston!

The drought actually lingered right until the end of the year. However, a wetter pattern has since ensued, with precipitation amounts actually above average for many, so far this year.

It’s a cliche, but April showers do indeed bring May flowers! So far, this April, has featured above average amounts of precipitation across the region.

It’s essential to receive an adequate amount of water in springtime. This moisture helps sustain growth of flowers, trees and crops, during the drier summer months.

On April 1st, many locations in New England away from the coast had a significant winter nor’easter, with over a foot of wet snow falling.

Since then, we’ve had short bursts of warm weather, offset by longer periods of cool, damp, rainy weather. This is pretty much the exact opposite of this time last spring.

Yesterday, I took a drive up to Manchester, New Hampshire to visit some friends. Everything looked pretty much on target, as far as green up goes.

Back on April 1st, they received over a foot of snow! With recent cool weather, tree blossoms may be running a few days behind schedule up there.

However I did notice plenty of colorful flowers popping up as well! This is a sure sign of spring! Of course, the further north one goes, the later spring arrives.

Down here in Boston, the trees are beginning to bloom. While it appears to be a few days later than normal, I suspect all trees to be fully leaved by May 1oth here in the city. Certainly, the forsythia have added a nice yellow splash of color across the area.

After this weeks rainfall, the grass will be right on target for first mowing of the year this weekend! With the warm sun, the grass has already turned a lush green around the area. This is in stark contrast to the burnt out brown grass of last spring and summer.

As I have mentioned before, I monitor cycles and trends to help me forecast seasonal outlooks. While I wasn’t expecting the driest summer on record last year, I could clearly see it was going to be a hotter and drier than normal summer, early on.

My forecast called for between 15 and 20 ninety degree days last summer. Boston ended up with 22. This is 8 more than the average.

This year, the pattern is not as clear cut, to me. It does not take a rocket scientist to say that it’s going to be a wetter summer this year across the region. I believe it is going to be. The question is how much wetter is it going to be? Are we going to be dealing with average rain? Flooding rains? Or rain every three or four days or so?

One thing for sure, it’s looking more volatile than the tranquil, reliable patterns of last summer. So far, computer models have been flip flopping with their solutions, between warm and cool. But what does this mean?

What it means is that there will be more volatility. Like I mentioned above, I don’t see a stable, dry pattern like I did last summer.

This does not mean a terrible summer is on the way! It just means we will need to plan our outdoor activities more carefully! It also means my job forecasting this summer will be much more challenging!

At this point, I’m only laying the ground work for my summer forecast. The official forecast will not be published until May 22nd, just aboout a month from now. However, I do want to keep you informed with my preliminay thoughts, as we move closer to the date.

With May beginning one week from today, research into the summer forecast will kick into high gear! It’s amazing how fast time is going by!

By the way, spring hikers be aware! There is still a lot of snow left in the mountains of northern New England! In fact, many are still skiing! If you plan on hiking up in the mountains, be prepared to run into snow on the ground!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Hope for the end of the week? Expect increasing clouds for the rest of today. Temperatures should top of around 60.

Look for dry conditions for the first half of tonight, so any outdoor activities should be fine. However, later tonight, after midnight, expect winds to begin to freshen out of the east. This will begin to transport fog, drizzle, and areas of light rain in off the ocean. You know the routine!

For the period Tuesday through Thursday, expect another miserable stretch of weather across the area. A large storm will be developing off the coast, and turn into somewhat of a nor’easter. Once this storm arrives, it will be in no hurry to leave.

Watch for strengthening northeast winds, along with cold temperatures only in the 40’s tomorrow! While it will be damp most of the time, the heaviest rains look to fall Later tomorrow, through Wednesday morning. I am expecting between 1 and 3″ of rain to fall in eastern Massachusetts and the Cape.

In addition, because of astronomical high spring tides, and a persistant wind off the ocean, there is the threat of minor to moderate coastal flooding in the typical areas that are prone to this occurrence.

This would be Scituate/Marshfield areas, Hull, and north facing locations on the Cape. Coastal flooding is always a tricky situation, as so many factors can contribute.

I just don’t want folks to be caught off gaurd if a more serious situation arises. These types of storms can surprise at this time of the year. Please listen to local officials in case it becomes more serious.

Leftover light rain and drizzle may persist into Thursday. If we’re lucky, the storm may begin to move away from the region later Thursday, allowing for some drier air to penetrate the region.

If it doesn’t happen on Thursday, there’s a good chance that it begins to clear up on Friday, and also warm up to near 80 degrees! There’s also a chance of a some scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day.

Right now, Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend, with a good amount of sun and warmer temperatures, with highs near 80 once again. A front may move through on Sunday, bringing the chance of more showers and cooler weather.

Well, that’s about it for today! In next week’s blog, I will review the month of April, and have a preview for May! I will also have another update on my thoughts for the upcoming summer pattern. I will also begin my hiking and camping forecast! In the meantime, be glad that the showers this week are of rain and not snow!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It’s A Marathon…Not A Sprint! 4/17/17

Hello! Happy Easter, to all who celebrated! Also, Happy Patriots’ Day! Today is also the Boston Marathon! I hope everyone enjoyed the spectacular weather we were blessed with this past weekend.

Friday was a stunning day. With 100% of the possible sunshine, and temperatures in the low 70’s. It was perhaps the first top ten day of the year! Saturday was not bad either, perhaps a bit cooler and a few more clouds, but still, very nice.

The real show waited for Sunday. After a few light showers moved through Saturday evening, Sunday was the day when it felt like we transitioned from winter to summer, in just one day!

With a gusty southwest wind, temperatures soared to 86 degrees in Boston yesterday…making the holiday feel more like the 4th of July, not Easter!

With temperatures like this, green up seemingly happened right before our eyes! Yes, the grass has turned green, and has begun to grow, trees haved flowered, with leaves not far behind!

What once was a season that was running a week or two behind schedule, is now running about a week or so ahead of schedule! This is what temperatures and strong April sun can do.

While celebrating Easter Sunday, many friends and family members were asking whether this is the start of summer? While it certainly felt and looked like summer was here to stay, this could not be further from the truth!

While I too, love nice summer weather, I know better after living in New England my whole life! It’s simply much too early to sustain this kind of warmth around here.

Yes, there have been a couple very unusual years when summer did indeed begin in April. I remember three years over the last 27. Way back in April 1991, summer began in April, and resulted in a real scorcher! I remember fully leafed trees that year in April.

In recent years, it’s happened in 2010,  as well as in 2012, summer  began in April. Both years featured very long summers. The moral of the story, if summer begins in April, a very long, hot summer is typically going to follow.

So it can happen, I just don’t see it being the case so much this year. Typically, getting to summer around here, is more of a marathon than a sprint! Many times, it’s two steps forward, one step back. You’ll get there, but you have to endure several set backs along the way. Sounds a lot like life, right?

So, as I told all my friends and family yesterday, beware of the revenge of the spring chill, before we settle into anything resembling summer around here.

I’m pretty sure we’ll be using the heat more than the air conditioner over the next week or so. This will give us a case of New England weather whiplash, for sure! Thinking back over the years, this is not that uncommon. Not at all!

The reason being, is that the Greenland Block is going to develop. High pressure is going to build over Greenland. When this occurs, it surpresses the jet stream to our south, allowing colder air to settle into New England from eastern Canada.

In addition, it forces the baroclinic zone to our south (temperature difference between ocean and air), which can result in storm development, along with chilly & unsettled weather for eastern New England. Yuck!

The good news is that this block looks to be transient, and does not look like it’s going to fowl up the rest of our spring. Long range data suggests a warmer & drier regime moving into New England for the start of May!

More good news, earlier computer models were actually showing possible wet snow for Friday. They have since backed off that idea, but a cold rainstorm is still on the table. After temperatures in the upper 80’s, that’s going to feel quite raw!

Many also inquired about the upcoming summer. My family is truly a summer family! Anything can happen in the spring and fall, they just want nice weather for the summer!!

I love the summer, too, but I seem to have a polarity problem when it comes to the seasons! I don’t care what kind of weather we have in the fall and spring, so long as the winter is cold & stormy!!

My official summer forecast will not be published until May 22nd…still over a month away! And the official start of summer is still over two months away!  This gives you an idea, just how out of season the temperatures have been over the past couple days.

Just for fun, here’s a little comparison at how warm it was yesterday. We’re about two months away from the solstice, with temperatures in the upper 80’s. Normal high temperature for April 16th is about 54 degrees. We were a good 35 degrees above average yesterday.

Suppose this was October 16th, with a average high temperature of about 58 degrees. Had it been 30 degrees colder than normal on October 16th, this would equal out to temeratures in the upper 20’s…in October! WOW!

Not that this is impossible, but with today’s warming climate, and latent heating and cooling, such negative departures would be an extreme event in New England these days.

The oceans have been at record warm temperatures in recent years. This has impinged on winter around here, keeping the warmth of summer deeper into the fall.

But what about this summer? It’s still all preliminary, but I’m leaning towards going with the trend. After winter 2015, a massive global shift in the patterns have kept New England with above normal temperatures.

In fact, only three out of the last 24 months have featured below average temperatures. Most major global computer models are featuring another very warm, to hot summer for much of the eastern part of the United States, including New England. Ocean temperatures may be transitioning from La Nina to El Nino this summer.

Depending on how strong the El Nino becomes, may determine whether our summer continues hot through August and September, then lingers deep into next fall, like previous years. i will be monitoring this carefully over the next several weeks.

I believe, if a the El Nino remains on the weak side, another shift in the pattern next fall could be the end of the warm cycle, and may lead us into a severe winter next year.

I’m getting ahead of myself! In short, I’m expecting a hotter than normal summer this year! So summer lovers rejoice! I will continue to monitor this, and give updates, until my official forecast next month!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. After today, things go downhill. For the rest of today, expect mainly sunny and warm conditions. Temperatures have topped off in the lower to mid 70’s across the rgion, with no sea breezes.

Expect a cool front to slip through the area overnight. As this occurs, winds will shift to the northeast. This is going to push chilly, marine air from east to west.

Tuesday will be a more typical day around here. In fact, it may turn too cold for many! Expect northeast winds. With this wind direction, we’ll see more low clouds, fog, and even some drizzle at times. It will be chilly! Highs will only be in the mid to upper 40’s along the coast, and 50’s well inland.

Wednesday looks to start off dry. However, a storm system approaching from the west will likely spread some showers across the state from west to east during the afternoon. It will be cool, with highs in the upper 40’s and low 50’s.

Expect unsettled weather for the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning. Watch for northeast winds, periods of rain, and cold temperatures. Friday may be the coldest day, with highs only in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Wow.

Over the weekend, conditions may try and improve slightly. On Saturday, skies may try to brighten, and temperatures a little warmer, but don’t expect any 80’s anytime soon.

Sunday may start off dry, but another storm may threaten later in the day with more rain and chilly temperatures. A word of caution, once the onshore winds settle in on Wednesday, it may be difficult to get any sun through Sunday. in fact, don’t be surprised if we don’t see any sun for about a week.

On that pleasant note, that’s about all I have for now! In next week’s blog, I will have another summer forecast update.  I will also let you know when to expect our spring weather to return. In the meantime, we started off with a sprint, but be prepared to settle into a marathon, heading towards summer!

Good luck to all the Marathon runners!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

How Sweet It Is! 4/10/17

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice weekend! After a chilly Friday and Saturday, Sunday proved to be the day we’ve been all waiting for! With yesterday being Palm Sunday, it could not of been any more perfect timing!

After a winter that seemed to drag on towards the end, yesterday truly felt like the first day of spring! Yes, we had some warm days way back in February, but we all new that couldn’t last!

An awful stretch of cold and stormy weather made it seem like winter would never end! For the better part of the last 40 days, it seemed like it’s been raining, snowing, or just miserably cold and windy.

All that changed yesterday, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, and temperatures warming into the 60’s regionwide. It was a great day to finally get out for that run, a walk with the dog, or a stroll in the park.

Many people like to complain to me how long and miserable our winters are here in New England. This may be true, but I also remind them of a little life lesson that Mother Nature teaches us about the weather.

Remember that feeling you had when you walked out the door yesterday? Not having to bundle up with a winter coat and multiple layers? Remember how good it felt? It felt like you were rewarded for enduring a long winter!

It’s the same in life, when we have to go through some rough periods. After all, it’s not all tea & roses everyday. If it were like that, we would certainly not feel grateful and joyous for when better days arrive. I don’t know about you, but I felt like this yesterday!

Here in New England, we’re fortunate to have 4 distinct seasons. It’s true some winters are longer than others. But Mother Nature is all about balance, and playing even. She normally compensates with a beautiful, warm and sunny summer.

New England is not for everyone. Many folks feel just as grateful when they see the news about another blizzard hitting New England, while they are preparing to go to the beach!

If you live in New England, you have to appreciate the four seasons. How boring would it be if it were just summer or winter year around?

Because New England lies at the midpoint between the Equator and the North Pole, our weather never stays the same, for too long. You can experience every type of climate from across the entire world, right here in New England, during the course of the year!

So now that spring is here to stay, are we completely finished with winter? The short answer to this question, is no. Much like Indian Summer can reappear in late fall, winter can still make cameo appearances during April, and sometimes even into May some years!

Does that mean snow? In most cases, no. Looking over the long range guidance this morning, it looks as if the snow is done for us here in Boston this year. It would not shock me to see some wet snowflakes in the air again, but the accumulating snow appears to be over for this year.

What can still happen are cold rainstorms, and chilly, windy days. Also, late season cold snaps can send temperatures close to freezing throughout April, even into the first couple weeks of May. So don’t be disappointed if we fall back into a “winter relapse” after this wonderful burst of warm weather! It’s still very early in the season, and chilly periods are bound to happen again.

Now that it’s April, the sun is becoming increasingly stronger. As we begin to receive more radiation from the sun, green up is starting across the region. Green up is when basically everything begins to bloom!

Because March was so cold this year, crocuses have just come out in recent days. As the sun gets stronger here in April,  the grass will begin to turn green.

After mid month, the trees begin to flower, with small leaves by months end. Mowing typically begins across the region on May 1st, and leaves are fully open by May 10th, on average.

Planting can safely begin in Boston, and coastal areas by May 10th. Across the interior, frost is still a concern until the end of May. So some patience is needed.

Here in Boston, we average a 6 month cycle of mowing. The season typically begins on May 1st, and ends on November 1st. Green leaves on the trees are on a similar pattern, with leaves out by May 1st, to when they begin to turn colors during October, then complete leaf drop by mid November.

These dates are variable from year to year. Much depends on whether we are experiencing warmer or cooler cycles during the year. A warm season, extends mowing deeper into the fall, and leaves tend to stay greener longer. This has been the case the last several years.

By the way, if you live in northern New England, you can add or deduct between 2 and 4 weeks to all these dates. It’s just colder up there, and winters are longer, and summers a bit shorter. This is especially true, inland and up in the mountains.

Unfortunately, along with green up, allergy season has now begun. Tree pollen will be the main culprit over the next couple months or so, and make many folks lives miserable. To minimize alergic attacks, try to keep windows closed, and dust frequently.

As mentioned earlier, winter can sometimes make a late season appearance. Back in 1996, this was certainly the case. The winter of 1995-96 was certainly a long, drawn out affair! It began in November, and did not finish until April 10th.

At this time, Boston received back to back wet snowstorms. One hit on April 8th, then another on April 10th. Both storms dumped between 6 and 12″ of snow across the area, with up to 2 feet across the the hilly terrain of central Massachusetts!

Speaking of snow, it may of all melted around here, but there’s still a lot of snow left up in the ski resorts and mountains of New England. As forecasted, it was a big year, with many resorts accumulating between 200 and 300″ of snow this season. If they remain open, spring skiing may linger into May this year!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Big improvement from last week! Expect late may weather today, with sunshine mixed with some high clouds, and temperatures in the mid 70’s! Tonight will be fair and mild, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Look for the full “Pink Moon” later this evening!

If you like June weather, then tomorrow is your day! Look for abundant sunshine. With a warm southwesterly wind, look for temperatures to soar into the lower 80’s! If you live on the Cape or south coast, you can deduct at least 15 degrees off this temperature, due to the wind blowing in off the cold ocean.

The record for Boston is 78 degrees, set back in 1955. I’m very confident Boston will eclipse this reading tomorrow. It will be a great day to take a walk by the water, sit on a park bench, or have lunch outdoors! Enjoy!

Tuesday night should still be mild, with dry conditions. Lows will only fall into the 40’s and 50’s. Listen for those Peepers around swamps and bogs! A true sign that spring is here!

While Wednesday will not be as warm as Tuesday, it will still be well above normal, with highs near 70. With a cool front in the area, there’s the increased chance of a few showers, and even an isolated thunderstorm!

For the period of Thursday through Saturday, expect cooler weather, but not cold. Temperatures will settle back into the lower 60’s, only to possibly warm back up to the 70’s by next Sunday…Happy Easter! I’m not forecasting any washouts, but there could be some scattered showers at some point during Friday and Saturday.

Right now, a cold front looks to sweep through early next Monday morning for the Boston Marathon. This would mean a cool start to the day, but temperatures warming up to the lower 60’s later, with a gusty offshore wind. No rain is expected at this point. Good luck!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will begin to focus my attention on this summer’s forecast. I will also begin a new segment next week, with a camping and hiking forecast! The beach and boating forecast will begin sometime in May.

In the meantime, I know everyone is anxious for the summer to begin. But before that happens, stop, and realize how sweet the weather is today!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Easter, to all!~

Fenway Is Ready…Play Ball! 4/3/17

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice, weekend! Hard to believe we were dealing with a nor’easter on Friday and Saturday, and opening day for the Red Sox is today! For many folks, this is the true beginning of spring, around here.

Don’t tell this to Mother Nature! A sloppy storm brought a mixture of rain and wet snow on Friday. This transitioned to heavy rain and sleet in the Bosaton area Friday night.

North of Boston, and especially New Hampshire and Maine, were colder, and received at least a foot of heavy wet snow! As the storm began pulling away on Saturday, rain turned to a period of wet snow right to the coast, resulting in a couple sloppy inches   even here in Boston.

As has been the case for the majority of the winter, computer models over estimated the cold air around Boston, which could of resulted in a much worse storm for our area.

As it turned out, boundary layers warmed up just enough in the mid layers of the atmosphere, to allow most of the precipitation to fall as rain in the city.

While many computer models depicted this warming occurring, some reliable models kept it just cold enough to result in much heavier accumulations in and around Boston. Which made the forecast in Boston a toss up in the end.

It’s not the computer models. The models are just tools to help assess a situation. It’s studying and understanding the meteorology behind it, that seperates the professionals from the amateurs.

Not that there’s nothing wrong with that! There are so many outstanding amateur meteorologists out there who study the weather and do an incredible job forecasting it!

Nevertheless, the skills I lack in understanding meteorology makes me want to study the science more, and become better at what I do.  No doubt, it’s a humbling science for all involved!

This has been a frustrating and humbling winter for me forecasting the storms around Boston. While we received our share of snow, pesky warm intrusions in the upper atmosphere resulted in many mixed events, or snow turning to plain rain.

With the city registering it’s fifth warmest winter on record, and it’s position right along the coast, this makes sense to me.

Despite the warm winter, March turned the tables on us! It turned out that March was the coldest month, on average, than the period of December through February. This was the first such occurrance on record for this in Boston!

I was going to wait another week or two to write my winter review, but now that it’s April, now seems as good a time as any.

From what I can see, it appears as if accumulating snowfall is done for Boston this year. Of course, I said that last week, and then more snow fell!

Surprises can still occur, at least until mid April! Heavy snowstorms have occurred in Boston as late as the end of April! It’s rare, but the records show they have happened!

And it’s very unlikely northern New England has seen the last of the snow this year. We are in a chilly, wet pattern here in New England, at least for the first half of April.

But statistically speaking, the odds are against us now. And many are not going to shed a tear about this news!

So how did this years winter forecast work out for me, made back on November 23rd? Well, I am happy to report that it looks like the forecast verified very well! I would give myself an A on the overall forecast!

In Boston, I forecasted between 40 and 50″ of snow to fall. To this point, Logan airport has officially accumulated 47.6″ of snow. Considering November temperatures averaged nearly 2 degrees above average, this is a very impressive number in my opinion. This makes the last 4 out 5 years with above average snow in Boston! Quite a stretch!

Looking back, it turned out very much as I envisioned it. A very active winter, with rapid swings in temperature. There was no shortage of storms, either!

However, as mentioned above, many of these storms featured a lot of sleet and rain mixed in. This kept accumulations lower in the city, compared to inland areas.

Our largest storm arrived on February 9th, when 11″ fell in the city in one day. This storm actually turned into an official blizzard for the city. Just two weeks later, the region enjoyed the warmest February temperature on record, reaching an amazing 75 degrees!

The region also experienced unusually warm weather this winter. I wasn’t expecting it to be so warm. However, unlike last year, the cold and snow where never far behind, as the weather patterns shifted wildly around. One thing for sure, this winter kept many of us on our toes, with penty of variety and something for everyone!

Looking back, I did forecast a much different winter across the interior, and ski resorts, compared to last winter. This too also verified! Northern New England, and even inland areas of southern New England have all seen above average snowfall this winter!

While several thaws occurred, they were short lived up north, with most areas remaining snow covered all winter. Some of these areas may not be done with the snow this season, just yet! Yes, after last years debacle, it turned out to be quite a ski season this year!

While I nailed the overall winter, I was quite disappointed in my overall forecasts for the city of Boston. As mentioned above, this was the battle zone area the whole winter, with the rain/snow line cutting right across the city in many events.

While looking colder in many events, I mistakenly overestimated several snowfalls for Boston. If some were disappointed, I will work on this next winter to try and improve my skills!

I will never forget Orson, the mystery storm back in February! This storm was forecasted to give Boston blizzard conditions Monday morning, which prompted school cancellations. Needless to say, it was quite disappointing to wake up to just cloudy skies, and very light snow flurries.

This storm mysteriously skipped right over Boston, and delivered quite a blizzard to New Hampshire and especially, Maine! Then there was the March 14th storm, Stella.

Stella was another storm that was forecasted to bring crippling amounts of snow to Boston. A sudden last second shift in the storm spared the city a catastrophic blizzard. This was not the case for upstate N.Y.  much of Vermont, and interior New England, where between 30 and 50″ of snow fell!

The final nail in the coffin came just this past weekend. This storm was another that could of brought excessive amounts of heavy wet snow to Boston.

Yet again, another slight shift in thermal boundaries spared the city a crippling snowstorm. So while we had our share of snow this winter, Mother Nature went easy on us here in Boston, relatively speaking!

With such a hot summer and warm autumn last year, much above ocean temperatures, and a persistant La Nina, I am still amazed  New England pulled off such a active and snowy winter. Especially across the interior.

Signs pointed to a lot of snow across the interior. It was never meant to be an extremely snowy winter along the coast, just a normal winter. Which indeed it was!

Looking at some very preliminary signs for next winter, it could be different story all together. Another El Nino may be beginning to form. Depending on how strong this becomes, will determine what kind of winter we  see here along the coast next year.

A weaker El Nino could mean a colder winter, with much more snow along the coast. A stronger El Nino would mean warmer temperatures, with more rain than snow. I will monitor closely as we progress throughout the seasons!

That’s the future, how about for this month? Well, we just came off a much colder than average month of March. One which featured much more wintery weather than spring.

Unlike last year, this April looks to feature much wetter & cooler conditions. For at least the first two weeks of the month, this is going to be the theme.

Thereafter, patterns may be begin to relax to allow some warming. However, we’re still in a wintery type pattern. This means it’s going to be on the chilly side, just not cold enough to snow.

Let’s hope we can get some of this heavy rain out of the way now, and that this pattern doesn’t linger into the summer. We definitely need the moisture, many areas are still running a 20 to 30″ deficit of water, accumulated over several years now.

One quick note. While these storms will be rain down here in southern New England, it’s going to be a different story in the northeast mountains of New Hampshire and much of Maine, away form the coast!

It appears it’s going to be just cold enough so as this heavy moisture bumps into the cold air, excessive amounts of heavy wet snow could accumulate up there! The incredible winter of 2016-17 just keeps rolling on up there!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Expect a fairly pleasant afternoon for the Red Sox home opener. We will have filtered sun, with cool temperatures. An afternoon seabreeze will hold tremperatures in the upper 40’s at Fenway. Go Sox!

By the way, I’m not in favor whatsoever for the Red Sox to open up at home at the start of April. The weather often times is too stormy and cold in Boston for the first week in April, and this week will be no exception!

After April 10th, there is a noticeable change in the weather, which makes it more suitable for baseball weather in northern cities. Major League Baseball officials should take this into account, and shift the location of opening dates for northern cities.

Expect thickening clouds tonight. It should be mainly dry, but there’s a chance that some rain could move in by dawn. It will be chilly, with lows in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Look for rain to move in for tomorrow. During the afternoon, downpours are likely, along with a cold wind coming in off the ocean. As mentioned above, this rain will be snow up in northern New Hampshire and much of Maine.

A secondary low pressure system may develop east of New England, locking in just enough cold air for Maine to see wintery precipitation. Interior Maine could see quite a heavy snowstorm out of this situation! All in all, it looks like a complete washout for tomorrow, around here.

Areas of heavy rain may linger through much of tomorrow night. Temperatures may get a little milder as a warm front tries to lift north. Watch for areas of fog.

Wednesday may start murky, but skies will tend to brighten during the day. It will be a bit milder, with highs mainly in the lower 50’s.

Clouds will be on the increase again Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cool, with lows in the 30’s and lower 40’s.

Another storm approaches Thursday. This will be a large, sprawling storm, which will send a surge of rain up through New England during the afternoon and night. Once again, it may be just cold enough for more snow for the interior of Maine. Wow!

This storm will not be in any hurry to move out of here, either. Expect the upper level low to slowly track cross the region on Friday and Saturday. This means chilly, unsettled weather with instability showers of rain and wet snow in higher elevation areas. It will be on the chilly side, with highs mainly in the 40’s.

We should see some improvement on Sunday. As the upper low moves east of the region, we should see more sunshine, and milder temperatures. Something to look forward to!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about our spring timetable. I will also have your Easter Sunday forecast! In the meantime, it may be opening day at Fenway, but don’t tell that to Mother Nature!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

The Struggle Is Real…3/27/17

Hello, all! I hope everyone had a nice first full weekend of spring! Though the weather did not cooperate, believe me when I tell you, it could of been a lot worse!

As a cold front moved through the area on Saturday, many saw some cold rain showers. These fell as snow showers across the interior and up in the ski resorts.

Saturday night turned cold and damp, with areas of black ice. Not very springlike at all!

Sunday morning greeted many with bright sunshine! You may of thought a nice spring day was on the way. However, as the day progressed, a dark cloud increased from west to east, winds turned onshore, putting the kibosh on that idea!

As mentioned above, it could of been worse. Computer models last week were showing today to be a very icy day, with a steady mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

As it turned out, this inclement weather set up shop up in New Hampshire and much of Maine. Much to the relief of many folks here in the Boston area.

And so it begins…the most depressing time of the year for me, in the weather department. Still cold out, but just not cold enough for snow.

Oh, it can still snow, for sure. There have been many snowstorms in late March and even the first half of April. We’ve even had snow in May, before!

But for the most part, the snow season is over for the coast. This is especially true for the megalopolis region from Boston on down the coast.

Up north, and in the interior of New England, snow and wintery precipitation is still quite common for a couple more weeks.

Looks like the only way I’m going to be able to extend my snow season is to move north someday!

I’ve always been intrigued with the Portland, Maine area. Believe it or not, it’s winter climate is similar to Anchorage, Alaska! And, I would not have to leave my beloved New England!

Then again, my truly favorite spot in New England, is in the White Mountain region of New Hampshire! Here, the winters are much more rugged, beginning in November, and lasting right through April! Not for the faint of heart. You truly need to love winter to live up in this region!

That’s me. I realize the majority of the population is just fine with the amount of winter weather the Boston area throws at them each season.

And it’s true…Boston is quite the weather shmorgisborg! If you like change, and variety, Boston is the place to be! There’s four distinct seasons. Because of it’s latitude, Boston is at the peril of many different types of weather.

Hot & humid weather can visit the city for weeks at a time during the summer. While bitter cold and severe blizzards can leave  residents snowbound during winter months!

Each season is different, and brings its own challenges. After a tough winter, spring can be glorious when it arrives! Some years spring arrives earlier than others. Out of all the seasons, spring can be the most fickle, here in eastern New England.

While many are already breaking out the shorts and t-shirts to our south, not so much for us! After a fairly long winter, many are chomping at the bit to enjoy the outdoors without bundling up in a winter coat and hat!

To add to the frustration, many believed spring was truly here way back in February, when it was so warm!

This left many folks asking me, what happened? March turned into a gorilla, with frequent snowfalls, and bitter cold temperatures.

In fact, March is going to in the books, as our first below average month for temperatures in Boston, since last April. Nearly a full year!

It’s a fine balance with Mother Nature. In most simplest terms, some years are better than others. New England is not known for our glorious springs!

Because of latent heating and cooling, our weather takes longer to warm up than other parts of the country. More often than not, cold dense air from the Atlantic Ocean mutes warm temperatures trying to penetrate our region from the southwest.

In many cases, cold air tends to linger, even into May! As soon as the ocean temperatures reach that critical temperature, it seems as if summer just appears overnight! This typically happens around Memorial Day, but can be sooner, or even later, some years.

Hard to believe, but it’s almost time to begin preparing for my summer forecast! My official forecast will not be released until the Monday before Memorial Day.

As I do with my winter forecast, I love looking at long range guidance months in advance to help give me some clues as to what the season may bring.

Nothing is gauranteed at this point, but most guidance is indicating a warm to possibly even hot summer this year!

However, along with the heat, computer models are also indicating a much rainier summer this year. After coming off of the driest summer on record in Boston, this makes some sense. Just as Boston received a warm and somewhat snowy winter this year, could we also be in for a warm and rainy summer?

Some things to monitor as we approach summer. It appears the atmosphere could be gearing up for another El Nino event. Depending on when this develops, and how strong it becomes, will help give me an idea on how wet it will be this summer.

If El Nino does indeed return, it may increase upper level winds in the tropics. In situations like this, it typically prohibits hurricane development.

However, with ocean temperatures so much above normal off the Atlantic coast, we need to watch for in close development along the coast.

In addition, I will be monitoring very closely, just how strong the El Nino becomes. If it turns into another super El Nino, it will flood the United States with very warm temperatures again next winter.

However, if it remains on the weaker side of the spectrum, New England could be in for whopper of a winter next year! I’m getting way ahead of myself! I will explain this reasoning as we head into next fall.

Before I get tot the forecast, I did want to have a brief weather history segment. Back on March 28th and 29th, 1984, a severe spring storm struck much of southern New England.

Hurricane force winds, along with nearly a foot of plastering wet snow and icy sleet brought tremendous tree damage, along with widespread power outages across the Boston area.

One of my best friends from the neighborhood, and myself watched in awe as the fury of Mother Nature toppled a 60 foot spruce tree right in front of our eyes!

There was no danger, as it was apparent by the way the tree was bending, that it was going to fall safely between two homes. Neither of us has forgotten that storm, even to this day!

Though the snow may be melting around Boston, there’s still plenty up north! With chilly weather hanging on until at least mid April, spring skiing will be alive and well this year! Please call your favorite resort to check for conditions, before going!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Expect rainy weather for the rest of your Monday. It will be chilly and raw, with highs only in the lower 40’s.

Rain and drizzle may linger into the first part of the evening, then diminish from west to east later on. It will be damp, with lows mainly in the low 40’s.

Tuesday will feature another mainly cloudy day. It will be a touch warmer. If we get any breaks of sun, temperatures may warm up into the lower 50’s. Otherwise, they may hover in the upper 40’s. Getting the sun out is key this time of year.

Another quick moving system will produce another raound of showers tomorrow night. This too should move out fairly rapidly Wednesday morning.

The rest of Wednesday may feature some clearing skies, but windy conditions. Temperatures will feel a bit cooler than what they actually are. Expect highs to mainly be in the upper 40’s.

Thursday will be chilly! With a brisk wind, highs will only make it to the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. It should be mainly on the dry side. Hello, spring?

Another storm system will be approaching New England on Friday. Expect increasing clouds and chilly weather. If this storm passes to our south, expect a cold rain to develop Friday night and continue into the first half of Saturday.

It’s not out of the questions, that some areas to the north of Boston sees wet snow and sleet mixed in (not an April Fools’ joke)!

The storm should move out later Saturday, leading to a much better day on Sunday. It may still be breezy, but at least the sun should be out!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my winter review, as well as my preview of April. I will also be discussing about another severe storm that happened 20 years ago, in weather history segment.

In the meantime,  put away the snow shovels, and break out the umbrellas, as we transition to that time of the year!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It’s Official…Spring Is Here! 3/20/17

Hello! Congratulations! You survived another New England winter! As of 6:28 of this morning, spring has officially arrived! And to herald in the new season, the weather is going to cooperate, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, and temperatures above normal for a change.

Many friends and family often ask me, what makes spring, spring? With this being the first day of spring, or the spring equinox, both day and night are 12 hours long.

Moving forward, we are now entering the time of year, when we rapidly begin to receive more radiation and light from the sun. This process began back at the winter solstice, but the radiation from the sun is delayed.

As we travel around the sun, the earth is tilted 23.5 degrees on its axis. We are now half way between the winter solstice, and summer solstice. Thus , the equinox being equal amount of day and night. From this point forward, the days will become longer, and the sun radiation stronger.

When the summer solstice arrives, the days will begin to shorten, as we begin to head towards the autumnal equinox. Which is the same position as the spring equinox, but we’re losing daylight, heading towards winter.

Because we are tilted on our axis, the southern hemisphere moves into summer season, and we receive less, as we head towards winter.

When we were kids, my brother and sisters used to tease me when spring arrived. They used to sing in unison chasing me around the house, “spring is here, spring is here, how do you think I know? The grass is getting greener, I know it must be so!” Torture, right?

Though I admire all four seasons here in New England, the ending of winter is always a somber time for me. As many of you know, winter is my favorite season…by a long shot. I love the autumn, and summer too, just not as much as winter.

Sometimes, the end, doesn’t always mean that it’s completely over. Like a lost love, it sometimes comes running back for one last hug!

Living in New England my whole life, I know better than to write off snow when spring begins. Just last year, we had back to back snowstorms at the beginning of April. And who could ever forget the massive April Fools’ Blizzard, 20 years ago this April!

Out of all the seasons, spring in New England can be the cruelest. Just when you think you’re in the clear, something very odd and unseasonable is bound to occur.

Even as recent as this past weekend, the spring season could of gotten off to a rocky start. I was keeping a close eye on a possible nor’easter for much of the Boston area. Computer models as late as Friday, were predicting a heavy wet snowstorm, with at least 6″ of snow, and high winds.

As it turned out, a last second shift in the storm spared most of us the brunt of the storm. Folks down on the Cape and Islands were not as fortunate, as they had snow and wind for much of the day on Sunday.

So why does it seem like pulling teeth getting genuine spring weather up here to New England? There are many reasons. And not every year is the same.

Some years, such as 2012, we skipped over spring all together, and went right into summer. This was a very unusual year, when summer actually began in March!

Other years, we’re not so lucky, when winter like weather can linger well into May, and even June sometimes. This is where the saying, we go from winter straight to summer, and skip over spring! It’s true, spring definitely gets the short end of the stick around here. As it seems other seasons bullies it around.

I remember when my sister worked in Connecticut a few years back, she would always let me know how much further along spring was down in the southwest part of that state, compared to areas around Boston, points north.

This is a good observation, and is true, for the most part. Spring does arrive earlier to the southwest of New England. This is due to latent heating and cooling. In the spring, it takes longer for the ocean temperatures to warm up compared to the land. With New England sticking out into the Atlantic, it keeps us colder, compared to areas to our southwest.

In addition, blocking patterns are more likely in the spring, bringing prolonged stretches of cloudy, cold and damp weather. With New England also being close proximity to Canada, cold air can also linger, especially across the north.

If a storm develops, and has enough cold air left over, we sometimes experience late season snowstorms, too. In some cases, storms are loaded with moisture, due to the increasing warm temperatures to our south. This was evident in the massive blizzard 20 years ago on April 1st, when between 2 and 3 feet of heavy wet snow buried the area!

Some years we get lucky. Cold air vacates the region quickly, and the weather warms up quickly, allowing spring to spread into the region, without resistance.

So what do I think for this spring? If March is any indication for the spring season, keep those winter coats handy! So far, as warm as February was, March has been just as equally cold.

In fact, March will go down in Boston, as our first below average month since last April! Nearly a full year! Does this mean we can now expect a string of months with below average temperatures?

Not exactly. I still don’t believe we have had a large scale atmospheric pattern change. In essence, we’ve been prodominantly above average since April, 2015. Looking at some long range guidance, I believe we will revert back to the above average theme starting in April, and continuing on for the rest of the spring.

However, before we get there, I am expecting more abrupt temperatures swings of both warm and cold weather. In addition, do not be surprised if snow visits part of the Boston area one or two more times. Certainly up to our north.

Our first chance comes this weekend, then possibly again the first week of April. Thereafter, after about April 10th, the weather should begin to warm up nicely, to commence spring in the region.

It may turn warmer, but it’s also going to become increasingly wet. With a strong Pacific jet stream persisting, I am expecting above average precipitation this spring.

This is good news for our ongoing drought, and may be much different that our parched spring of last year. Overall, it’s looking like a warm and wet spring, ahead.

Just a quick ski and snow board forecast. After last weeks massive blizzard, many resorts cashed in with between 2 to 3 feet of snow. There were isolated reports of up to 60″ in Vermont!

Needless to say, ski conditions are the best of the season right now! I will rate it a 10 out of 10. After a brief warm up, it will turn bitterly cold this week. And there is a chance of significant snowfall this weekend! Skiing should hold strong well into April this year! What a difference a year makes!

Now for our local outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Expect deep blue skies and milder weather today! With light winds, it will feel wonderful to be outdoors.

Watch for temperatures to warm up into the lower 50’s. the only exception is if you’re right along the water, where a brisk north wind will make it feel a bit chilly.

Tonight will feature clear skies, and light winds. This will allow temperatures to 20’s across the region.

Tuesday should feature a mix of clouds and sun. It should be mainly a dry day in our area, but I can’t rule out a snow or rain shower across the deep interior.

An arctic front will be pushing through New England, tomorrow night. Watch out! It will begin to turn windy and bitterly cold for this time of the year. There may be some scattered snow squalls and snow flurries as this fron moves through. Otherwise, expect much colder weather, just like the middle of winter, with lows in the teens and 20’s, with windchills in the single digits!

Bundle up Wednesday morning! It will be very cold, with winchills in the single digits, and temperatures in the teens and low 20’s. It will warm up into the 30’s during the afternoon, but there will still be a biting wind.

Fair weather will continue for both Wednesday night and Thursday, with lows in the single digits and teens. After near record cold start, temperatures will begin to slowly moderate on Thursday, with lighter winds, it will feel more tolerable.

As a warm front approaches Friday, we will moderate back up into the 40’s on Friday, along with considerable cloudiness.

Right now, the weekend is looking tricky. If we make it into the warm air with some sun, Saturday could turn quite warm, with highs near 60. However, another strong cold front will be slipping though the region Saturday night. This could set the stage for a wintery Sunday.

According to computer models, it appears as if a storm is going to develop in the Ohio Valley. You know where I’m going with this! It’s still many days out, but it’s possible this storm tracks south of New England.

As the cold air noses down into the storm from Canada, we may have a wintery situation of mixed precip changing to snow in many areas. If the storm cuts through New England, this would mean a big rainstorm, and a big mess. Stay tuned for updates!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about the spring patterns, and have a sneak peek into what this summer may be like here in New England. I will also have a segment of weather history.

In the meantime, don’t get discouraged with this week’s cold weather, think of it as New England giving you one last hug!

Thanks for reading!

Pete