Stella…STELLA!! 3/13/17

Good morning! I hope everyone had a nice, weekend! It certainly looked and felt more like the middle of January, rather than the middle of March!

After a quick moving snowstorm Friday, temperatures failed to make it above freezing since. Many record cold temperatures were eith set or tied over the weekend. And as for the wind chills, forget about it!

I feel bad for folks visiting Boston from other parts of the world, thinking that Boston might be nice and springlike during March. Well, if you were here in February, that would of been the case! In all fairness, the weather for Boston in March can be just about anything.

It was just five short years ago that many people were heading to the beach this week! Yes, March 2012 was one for the record books! How could anyone forget a full week with temperatures in the mid 80’s! Temperatures remained well above average for the rest of the month, leading to the warmest March ever recorded in Boston.

Contrast that to this past Friday, where many locations received between 2 and 4″ of snow across the Boston area. Head toward the Cape, and these amounts swelled to 6 to 9″ of wet snow. It was certainly a very snowy day indeed, down on the Cape and Islands.

Looking back now, I don’t believe I have ever seen a winter with so many twists and turns than this one! I knew it was going to be changeable, but not as extreme as this! Mother Nature has certainly kept us on our toes!

Now, I’m sure everyone is wondering who this Stella is! New girlfriend? Nope. The sister of Blanche in A Streetcar Named Desire? Why yes, of couse it was! But what the heck does this name have to do with the weather?

Well, as it turns out, a few years back, The Weather Channel actually began naming winter storms. Personally, I thought it was a silly idea. Naming hurricanes is one thing, but winter storms?

When do you make the distinction of which storm gets a name, or not? At least with hurricanes, there’s a process before a storm gets named.

One must become a tropical storm first. When a tropical depression strengthens to a tropical storm, with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, NOAA will give the storm a name. Names are random, and go by alphabetical order.

Nevertheless, they moved forward with the idea. To their credit, many of the names have had some meaning behind them. Either Greek God’s, or Roman based.

A couple blizzards that hit Boston in recent yerars were named Nemo, in February of 2013, and Juno (my favorite) back in January 2015.

So who’s Stella? Well, Stella is the name of the next storm. And if things work out according to plan, Stella could go down in the record books as one of the largest March storms to ever hit the east coast, including New England!

If you havn’t heard, much of eastern Massachusetts, including the city of Boston is currently under a blizzard watch! Hard to believe here in mid March, the potential exists for a blizzard!

How did we arrive to this point? Well, as I was expecting, the La Nina that was destroying our winter, has faded away. In its wake, we were left with neutral ocean temperatures in the southern Pacific Ocean.

This means not warm, and not cold water. With conditions like this, winter storms can once again begin to develop along the east coast. Studies have shown, that we receive our biggest storms with either neautral, or weak El Ninos present in the Pacific Ocean.

With the La Nina fading, the jet stream is now allowed to plunge deeper into the eastern United States. As energy nears the east coast, storms can develop, and turn into nor’easters.

As it appears right now, we could be in this pattern until about the middle of April. This does not mean constant cold and snow! It just means overall, it looks colder, with more chances of stormy weather, which may include more snow at times.

I like to look at it this way. Remember all that warm, sunny weather back in October and November? Well, this is just Mother Nature’s way of balancing things out.

The trend the past several years is for late starting winters, and this is no exception. Ocean temperatures around the earth are at record high levels.

It takes longer for the oceans to cool off over the winter. But when they finally reach that critical temperature, it seems as if the pattern just snaps into winter!

So what’s the latest on Stella? Latest computer models have made some slight, but significant changes! As I explained yesterday in my update, the track of the storm is going to be critical, as to what falls from the sky.

Latest data shows a few new developments. First, they want to track the storm faster than previously thought. You may say great, we dodged a bullet! Well, not really! Computer models have also made the storm stronger!

Where this stays all snow, and especially in elevated areas north and west of Boston, this is going to be the ultimate snow blitz! The third change, and perhaps the most important, they are now tracking the storm even closer to the coast than yesterday’s guidance.

As I explained yesterday, if the storm tracks closer than what is thought, it could bring in enough warm air to mix with and possibly even change the snow to rain for a time, right in the city of Boston, and especially south of the city and along the south shore & the Cape.

This is a significant change from earlier thinking, and will be reflected in my accumulation forecast. It is important to note, some models track the storm a bit further to the southeast, over Nantucket. Should this verify, Heavy snow would continue longer, and any mixing in Boston would be brief, if at all.

Many computer models have the rain/snow line cutting right through the city of Boston. This is where one must interpret the models correctly, to decifer what’s going to happen. There are some 51 different computer models out there. Looking at all of them is useless at this point.

Many meteorologists don’t even bother with the big global models such as the European, and the American based GFS. Rather, they focus on high resolution short range models, which do a better job in the fine details, such as temperature boundaries, precipitaion, and track of storm.

So here’s my latest thinking. This is going to be a fast but very intense, storm! It will begin in many areas between 6 and 8 o’clock tomorrow morning. Snow will quickly intensify, and between 10 AM and 3 PM, it’s going to snow very heavily!

This, in conjunction with very strong winds of gusts up to 60 mph is going to bring blizzard conditions to much of our area. If you don’t need to go out at this time, please stay home!

Thundersnow is also a possibility in intense storms like this. Yesterday, I was concerned about the consistency of the snow. It now appears as if it is indeed going to be a very sticky, heavy, wet pasty snow. This raises the risk of tree damage and power outages.

Down on the Cape, you may begin as snow, but this will most likely turn to rain fairly quickly, as warm winds off the ocean invades from the east.

Because the storm is slated to pass very close, or even over the Cape, winds will be strongest early, but then calm down as the storm center tracks over the Cape.

Later on, computer models are showing a dry tongue, and milder air approaching from the south. This happens in very intense storms, as they intensify so much, dry air wraps around the south side of the comma head.

If this makes it into eastern Massachusetts, the snow will mix with sleet, and possibly even rain for a time. Winds may also slacken. Almost as if we are in the eye of the storm.

Unfortunately, if you love storms, this may be the end of the worst part of the storm. After such a wild start, this is going to feel a bit deflating.

Further inland, say to the north and west of I495, snow may continue to fall heavy at times into the evening. This is where the jackpot for the storm is going to be. I will go over these accumulations in detail shortly.

So let’s put this all together in a detailed forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. More wintery, than anything else! For the rest of today, expect mostly sunny skies, except there will be high clouds showing up later in the day. It will be cold, with highs only in the 20’s.

Watch for increasing clouds tonight, it will continue to be on the cold side, with lows in the teens and 20’s.

Tuesday will turn into a very stormy day! Look for snow to quickly develop between 6 and 8 AM across the area. By 10, everyone should be off the road, if possible.

As mentioned above, between 10 AM and 3 PM, we will experience full scale blizzard conditions in the Boston area. Excessive snowfall rates of between 2 and 4″ per hour, in combination of winds between 40 and 60 mph will create whiteout conditions, and impossible travel.

Snow plastering against trees and power lines will undoubtedly result in tree damage and power outages. During this period of intense weather, I am expecting the city of Boston to accumulate between 10 and 12″ of heavy, wet snow.

North and west of Rt 128, expect the snow to be more powdery, where 14 and 18″ will accumulate. This extends up into coastal New Hampshire, where my sister lives.

In the higher terrain snow belts of Worcester county, southern New Hampshire , and Merrimack Valley, there will be locations that receive between 18 and 24″ in a very short period of time!

Now for folks south of Boston. Similar to Boston, a period of blizzard conditions and high winds will occur. Here you can expect between 8 and 12″ of snow. During the late afternoon, a lot of sleet and rain may place a cap on the accumulations.

As you head closer to the Cape, accumulations will be less, but significant nonetheless. Expect between 4 and 8″ from southern Rhode Island, heading east to the Cape Cod canal, before a change to sleet and rain.

On the Cape itself, I’m expecting a period of snow, to change to rain, after between 2 and 4″ of wet snow.

Just a word of caution, one computer model we use is still holding on to the colder solution. If this verifies, and less mix and rain is involved, you can add between 3 and 6″ to these amounts across the Boston area. This is something I will be monitoring during the storm, and update everyone during the course of the event.

One more aspect that I would like to briefly discuss about the storm. With a full moon, and winds of up to 60 mph, the poential exists of coastal flooding. In fact, a coastal flood warning has been issued for east coast Massachusetts, between 11 AM and 3 PM.

During this period, the potential exists for at the minimum minor to moderate flooding. If the winds coincide with the high tide, there may be some areas of major flooding.

You know the areas that are flood prone…Scituate, Marshfield, Revere, Nahant, ect.. If it happened in the past, chances are it will happen tomorrow! Please listen to local authorities concerning this possibly dangerous situation.

Later tomorrow, winds will begin to diminish. In Boston, light mixed precipitation may persist into the evening, then possibly change back to areas of light snow.

To the north and west, snow will continue to fall well into the evening, adding to the accumulations. South of Boston, light rain will mix and change back to light snow for a time.

Wednesday will be an improvement. There may be some patchy areas of light snow moving through the area, but nothing too serious.

I don’t make these decisions, but I believe it would be best to keep schools closed another day to allow for proper clean up of streets and sidewalks. Especially from Boston north and west.

The weather will continue to improve for Thursday. It should be mainly sunny. It will be on the cold side, but melting will commence with the growing warm, March sun.

Friday may bring some flurries, but a storm is not anticipated. It will be cold with highs only in the 30’s.

While Saturday looks to start fair and cold, clouds will be increasing during the afternoon. It will continue to be on the cold side, with highs once again in the 30’s.

Another storm system threatens on Sunday. I actually have not had time to study the long range much this weekend. If conditions warrant, I will update my blog, or on Facebook. At this point, there is a chance of rain or snow again, how much is not known at this point.

Well, that’s about it for now! Boy, that was a boatload! Hope it was informative and not too technical for everyone! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about when this hideous pattern we’ve suddenly gotten into is going to leave! I will also try and post my spring outlook.

In the meantime, don’t blame Stella, it’s just New England weather doing what it does to torture us!

Thanks for reading,

~Be Safe!~

Pete

***Feel free to ask me any questions or leave a comment!***

Spring: So Close…Yet, So far Away! 3/6/17

Hello, everyone! Wow…was that a cold weekend, or what? Friday wasn’t too bad, with temperatures right about normal. An arctic cold front passed through the area Friday night, bringing with it snow squalls which dusted the ground in many communities.

In its wake, a real bitter blast descended upon the region over this past weekend, with ferocious wind chills, and temperatures more like the middle of January, rather than March.

In fact, Boston set a record low high temperature on Saturday. With the high temperature of only 21 degrees, this tied the record set way back in 1896 for the date!

After a bitter cold start, Sunday afternoon proved to be more tolerable. With lighter winds, and temperatures near freezing, you could at least go out for and take your dog for a walk!

As has been the story for winter 2016-17, this won’t last. Warm air, already on the move, will make this afternoon feel more comfortable. Even warmer weather is slated for this Wednesday, with widespread 50’s making a return to our area!

That too, won’t last! Building high pressure over Greenland, will buckle the jet stream south of New England. As I have mentioned from time to time, this is called the Greenland block. These types of blocks are notorious in fowling up our spring weather here in New England…especially eastern areas.

Couple thing to keep in mind. First, technically, it’s still winter. So despite what the calander says, the weather from this past weekend, though a bit unusual, is certainly not unprecedented. Second, for those who believed that spring was here to stay, winter still has some gas in the tank!

Does this mean another snowmageddon is on the way? At this point, I would say no for us here in Boston. However, with that being said, the pattern from about March 10th through the 20th, looks to be very active, with multiple chances for snow and cold weather.

Places that do receive multiple snowstorms, may indeed look like a snowmageddon has hit! Right now, I would say locations south of New England, centered across the mid-Atlantic region, has the best chance for seeing significant snows. These locations have seen the least amount of snow, this winter.

This being only Monday, this area may shift over the next few days. There are some computer models that send a weak storm south of New England on Friday. Then, gather a larger more significant storm across the mid-Atlantic over the weekend.

With a cold high pressure area building down from canada to our north, supplying cold air, it appears the stage may be set for a significant winter storm to develop. Right now, early indications show the mid-Atlantic region getting hit pretty hard, and only a glancing blow for us here in the Boston area.

However, it would not take much of a slight shift in the steering currents to bring significant snow to us here in Boston on Sunday. More storms would follow suit next week, but I’m getting ahead of myself! I will certainly update everyone, if I feel conditions warrant on this potential winter storm.

Regardless if a storm hits or not, it appears as if another bitter cold airmass is going to descend upon New England for this upcoming weekend.

Many have been saying, and I hear you out there, just what the heck is going on here? Last weekend, we were in our shorts and t-shirts, laying out in the sun! Now, we’re talking more bitter cold and possible snow? All of which are valid questions.

As I cautioned many, this is not March 2012, when if you recall, summer began. Yes, you heard me correct…summer! In all its glory! In one of the most remarkable early season warm spells on record, the Boston are had nearly a full week with temperatures in the mid 80’s! A good friend of mine actually went to Hampton Beach that week!

From that point forward, we never really looked back. April continued with the unseasonably warm weather, which then continued straight into summer! Needless to say, everything blossomed about 6 weeks ahead of schedule that year.

In a somewhat similar fashion, early season warmth occurred to our south this past February. It was so warm, that green up, vegetation growth, and leaves on the trees began to blossom a full 4 weeks earlier than normal. In fact, from reports that I read, green up made it as far north as Philadelphia, PA!

We experienced a few days of warm weather here in New England, for sure. But areas to our south had several weeks of unusually warm temperatures, which prompted early blossoms on trees and vegetation.

The fear now is a late season cold snap and snow, which may damage many of these blossoms. Already, I have seen reports of damaged Magnolia blossoms in the Washington D.C. area over this past weekend.

It was just too darn early for warm weather like that! Back in February, I cautioned folks who believed that winter was over, and that spring has now officially here to stay, that this would not be the case this year. As I always say to keep in mind, “the extremes make the averages.”

And indeed, after this upcoming cold shot and snow threats,  there are indications that warmer weather may push back into New England for a time later in March.

However, with patterns the way they have been all winter, I doubt that will be real spring to stay, either. Indications point to yet another cold spell, and possible snow towards the end of March and to start out April.

Bottom line, in most years, spring has difficulties penetrating into New England. Just last year, for example, back to back snowstorms hit the Boston area the first week of April.

Latent heating and cooling play a significant role in our climate here in eastern New England. In the fall, the ocean takes longer to cool off than the land, thus keeping coastal New England warmer deeper into the season.

In the spring, cold ocean temperatures take longer to warm up compared to the land. Therefore, warm weather to our south and west gets shunted before reaching us in many years.

Of course, many other weather factors come into play. Source regions of air masses play a siginificant role, along with the jet stream. The Greenland block can keep us chiily and unsettled. While a early season Bermuda High pressure can pump early season warmth into our region.

After reviewing some long range computer data, I’m expecting somewhat cooler start to spring, then slowly warming up and also becoming wetter this year.

I’m also expecting above average snowfall up in the mountains and ski resorts this spring. Even in the coastal plain, we may see spring snow in late March and early April, again. Thereafter, warmer weather should make inroads for balance of April and heading into May.

Now for your outdoor ski and snow board report. Ski resorts were able to make quite a bit of snow starting last Friday into the weekend. This has stabilized conditions.

Despite another warm burst, and some rain coming up this Wednesday, I will give this week a 6 out of 10. This will not be as warm as it was last week. So snow melt should be minimal.

Colder weather will blast back into the resorts starting on Thursday, and last straight on through the weekend. Be prepared for mid winter cold this weekend! In addition, some natural snow is possible on Sunday.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect  blue skies, followed by increasing high clouds for the remainder of this afternoon. There could be a colorful sunset! It will chilly, but not as frigid as the past couple days. And with light winds, it will feel a lot more comfortable. High temperatures should reach the low 40’s.

Overnight, expect cloudy skies. As a warm front moves through our area, it may trigger some areas of patchy drizzle. Across the interior, this may freeze on contact, and result in slippery roads…please be aware! It’s always the minor events that are the most dangerous!

Tuesday will be on the cloudy side with milder temperatures. We will be in the warm sector, with the warm front to our north, and cold front to our west. Therefore, expect a fairly benign day, with a few showers scattered around here and there.

As a cold front presses into our region, there may be scattered  showers tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Thereafter, the cold front should sweep off the coast during Wednseday, resulting in clearing skies, and mild conditions. Temperatures may still reach the 50’s!

Cold air advection will begin to sweep into the region on the heals of gusty westerly winds on Thursday. Temperatures should still make it into the 40’s, but the wind, it will make it feel much chillier! There may be a snow shower as the cold air pours in during the day.

A storm will pass south of our region during Friday. Latest indications show this storm missing us to our south. I will be monitoring this storm closely over the week, and will update you if conditions change.

It will be colder, and at the very least mostly cloudy. If the storm tracks  closer to us, some light snow could make it as far north as the Boston area.

Right now, we will have to monitor the weather patterns very closely over the weekend. Another storm will be developing across the Tennessee Valley on Saturday, and head towards the mid-Atlantic coast.

This storm could turn into a significant winter storm. Right now, indications are pointing towards the brunt of this storm just missing Boston to our south. However, it could come close enough to result in some light accumulations.

If Mother Nature decides to track this storm slightly closer to the coast, a strong nor’easter with high winds and heavy snows would be the result. This is still not out of the question for a track such as this. It’s just too early for me to make that call from today. Right now, it’s a miss for our area.  But that could change! Again, stay tuned for updates!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be tracking more wintery weather for next week. I will also let you know when springlike temperatures may return.

I will also have an exciting segment of weather history! In the meantime, I heard the spring birds singing again this morning, so spring can’t be too far away!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

*Don’t forget to “spring ahead” one hour this weekend!*

Record Warmth, Tornadoes…Snow?? 2/27/17

Hello! I hope everyone had a fantastic, weekend! There are no superlatives left to describe the weather we’ve been having! As forecasted in last weeks blog, spring did indeed surge north!

Boston recorded it’s warmest February day on record Friday, when temperatures soared to 73 degrees! Eclipsing the old record of 70 degrees set back in 1985.

The fun continued on Saturday, when temperatures broke yet another record, reaching a unprecedented 69 degrees! As a cold front pressed into the region, a summerlike squall line crossed the state Saturday evening.

In fact, the insanity continued, as Massachusetts recorded it’s first February tornado in recorded history! NWS Taunton sent a team out to the western part of the state yesterday, which indeed confirmed that a tornado touched down. This occurred in the  towns of Conway, Ashfield, Goshen and Chesterfield.

It wasn’t terribly intense, being classified as a EF1 on the Fujita tornado scale. However, a tornado is a tornado, and even a EF1 tornado can produce winds of between 86 and 110 mph. This is certainly strong enough to produce significant damage, which it did.

Gusty westerly winds brought a temporary end to the unseasonably warm temperatures on Sunday. Despite abundant sunshine, temperatures struggled into the lower 40’s in Boston. With the strong winds, this felt downright cold compared to previous days. You would be surprised to know, that this weather was exactly normal for this time of year!

Longtime WBZ Boston Meteorologist Barry Burbank posted a remarkable graph the other day on Twitter. I love these stats because it places everything in perspective. I did something similar in last weeks post, explaining just how amazing this warm weather has been, relative to the time of year.

Last Friday, the temperature in Boston was 73 degrees. This was 33 degrees above average for the date. Had this been July 4th, and temperatures were to be 33 degrees below the normal high, the high temperature in Boston would only be 48 degrees! This just shows us how unusual this warm weather has been.

Burbank posted another graph, asking folks how they felt about the unseasonably warm weather. In the pie chart, he asked whether folks loved it, confused/hated it, or were alarmed by it. Surprisingly, only about 40% loved it, while the the confused and alarmed crowd made up the difference at 30% apiece.

How did I respond? Well, this is a bit of a loaded question. Just so you know, I answered somewhat alarmed. Being a winter weather lover, I certainly wasn’t too happy about 70’s in February. And I don’t see temperatures being in the 40’s on July 4th anytime soon.

Growing up and living in Boston, I am very fortunate to have witnessed many, many (I’ll stop the many right there for now) years of different weather basically in one location. In addition, I’ve been blessed with nearly a photographic memory of weather events such as storms, seasons, and statistical data.

Many friends and relatives are asking me whether I believe this is global warming. Though I was somewhat alarmed by the 73 degree temperature on Friday, I still had to remind myself that just two short years ago, I was standing in the exact same spot, with 15 foot snowbanks towering over me!

In addition, it was also the coldest February on record. In a global warming alarmist society, you’re not going to hear about the the 3 winters Boston endured after the 2011-12 season, where seasonal snowfall averaged nearly 77″ of snow. The most in the city’s history!

I’m not saying things aren’t changing. They certainly are. Climate is always changing, and evolving. Living in Boston my whole life, I can honestly say that I have never seen so much snowfall in the city before, nor have I ever seen such warm temperatures here in February.

It’s my feeling that there’s a much higher power controlling the weather than us here on earth. The combination of the ocean temperatures, solar radiation, and the earth’s tilt on its axis play a significant role in our climate. Not to mention other natural forces such as volanoes erupting across the earth.

The point is, we shouldn’t make any irrational conclusions because we had a warm day in February. Nor should we if there was a blizzard in March. It could very well be just the weather being the weather.

Climate goes through cycles, which tend to repeat itself over a period of time. I want to see more evidence of whether our climate is indeed warming, or we’re just living through a warm cycle. So my stance as of today is inconclusive. I see temperatures warming in certain areas, but I also understand that this may be a warm cycle, and a regional cooldown may be looming.

As I mentioned, I have lived in Boston my whole life. I have lived long enough to witness that Boston’s winters go in cycles. We have stretches of mild winters, puncuated by severe winters, where you would think the next ice age is coming. Next winter could feature a totally different regime than this one.

As my sister Pam says, “it doesn’t matter whether global warming is happening or not, we should take care of our earth regardless.” Good words to live by, indeed!

Speaking of climate, how did the forecast work out for February? Well, I am plased to let you know that it turned out to be a very good forecast! I would grade it a B+.

Overall, it was a much warmer than average month. Certainly a lot warmer than I had anticipated, but I did call for a warmer and snowier month. As it turned out, Boston received nearly 21″ of snow this month. This is nearly 9″ above average.

The forecast was for between 15 and 20.” Boston is now running just about average for snow this season. Logan airport typically receives about 44″ in a average season. We are at about 35″ so far. Should we see just average snow for the rest of the season, this would turn out to be a “normal” year of snow in Boston. We shall see!

What’s next on the weather agenda? Well, if you thought February featured crazy weather, wait until you see March! March can be a fickle month, where spring begins to push north, while winter tries to hang on for dear life. Many years, winter is reluctant to leave New England right up until the spring equinox on the 20th.

The weather this winter has featured great variability. Expect no different during March. In fact, I am expecting March to feature extreme weather this year! The contrast between cold air to the north, and very warm air to our south, will likely produce severe weather, including thunderstorms, tornadoes (not necessarily in New England) and blizzards.

While many may think winter is over, I believe we have a shot at another significant winter storm between March 7th and the 15th. While I’m expecting cold weather to hold spring back for a time, there’s no denying the unseasonably warm weather this year.

Much like in February, much warmer than normal weather later in the month will lead to yet another above average month of temperatures in Boston.

These type of warm temperatures in March will certainly lead to premature blossoms. This places ceratin fruit trees in jeopardy, much like last year, of another late freeze in early April. I will be closely monitoring that.

Now for your weekly ski and snowboard forecast. After such a stellar season, New England ski resorts have hit a rough patch of weather! Warm weather penetrated the north country, leading to close to a nuclear meltdown.

Not all was lost up north, only because they had such deep snow. In any event, I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Expect another blast of warm temperatures and rain on Wednesday, before much colder weather and possibly some snow heading into next weekend.

Now for our local weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect mainly sunny weather today, along with a gusty southwesterly winds. With this wind direction, expect temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 50’s. This is a good 10 degrees above average. Clouds will be on the increase overnight. It certainly won’t be that cold, with lows in the 20’s and lower 30’s.

Look for lots of clouds around on Tuesday. While there could be some showers around, I’m not expecting much until later in the afternoon. It will be a breezy and mild day, with highs in the mid 50’s.

Tusday night into Wednesday looks to be unsettled, with areas of rain and showers at just about anytime. Right now, I’m not expecting a washout. As we enter the warm sector of the storm on Wednesday, look for even warmer weather, with highs in the mid to upper 60’s!

Later in the day, a strong cold front will be approaching from the west. It’s not out of the question, that some strong to perhaps even severe thunderstorms cross the state. This is especially true across western and central areas of Massachusets. This is another highly unusual event. It will have a feel more like mid to late May than early March.

Thereafter, expect windy and colder weather to come rushing back into New England on Thursday. A fast moving storm will be tracking to our south on Friday. If it comes close enough, there may be a period of snow sometime during the day. This will not be a big storm, but a stark contrast from the weather of last Friday!

Right now, Saturday looks to be on the cold & dry side, with highs only in the 30’s. Sunday may be a bit milder, but with increasing clouds during the day, and highs in the lower 40’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will look into the possibilty of the major storm I’m expecting. I will also talk in greater detail my thoughts for the upcoming spring. In the meantime, expect March to live up to it’s reputation this year, be prepared for just about anything!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Spring…Surging North! 2/20/17

Hello! After a fairly seasonable day on Saturday, Spring fever took over much of New England on Sunday! While temperatures remained in the low 40’s Saturday, they soared into the upper 50’s and even some low 60’s Sunday!

This prompted many to stop what they were doing, and immediately head outdoors! Whether you headed to the ocean, a walk in the neighborhood, or just sat on the deck soaking up the sun, it was a day enjoyed by all!

The warm weather wasn’t confined to southern New England. Many locations up north, also enjoyed the mild weather. The combination of mild temperatures & deep snows, made this weekend one of the best ski weekends of the winter, so far!

After the two week barrage of heavy snow & cold temperatures, many welcomed the break from winter. This is especially true for folks who live in New Hampshire, and especially Maine.

After a fierce blizzard hit Maine a week ago today, another heavy snowstorm struck last Wednesday night into Thursday. This left many areas in Maine with between 30 and 70″ of snow on the ground, between the two storms!

As has been the case most of the winter, the  barrage of snow and cold did not last long. Over the weekend, the pattern suddenly shifted again, allowing warm air to our south, flow into the region. Had New England not have a thick snow cover, I believe you could of added 10 degrees to yesterday’s temperatures. This means Boston could of been close to 70!

Overall, it’s been a warm winter across the country. I will say this, if you like snow, you are very lucky to be living in New England this year! I’m very pleased how my winter forecast is working out this year for New England, published back on November 23rd.

Apart from the west coast, which has experienced a very stormy and cold winter so far, much of the east has actually had one of the warmest winters on record!

In fact, areas south of New York City has seen very little snowfall this winter, and some of the warmest temperatures on record this February. Many areas enjoyed temperatures in 70’s over the weekend!

With temperatures like this, it’s no surprise spring green up is running a good 3 weeks ahead of schedule across the south this year. This means spring conditions are happening down there like we see around here during mid to late April!

To place this into perspective. This would be equivalent for northern parts of the country such as Minnesota, Michigan, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine to have frosts, leaves turning colors, and possibly snow flurries…during the month of August!

As mentioned earlier, the cut off line is about New York City, northward. If you live in New England, it’s been an overall mild winter, but nothing like 2011-12. Many locations across the region are experiencing either close to, or even somewhat above normal snowfall this winter. In Maine it’s way above normal.

Why have we received more snow than other parts of the east coast, and why has it been so warm to our south? Well, a lot has to do with the jet stream. The jet stream is a river of air about 30,000 feet in the air, that divides the cold air masses from the warm air.

This winter, the jet stream has been bulging north across the eastern part of the country. Here in New England, it’s been oscillating north and south of our region. When it’s south, we turn cold and snowy. When north, warm and rainy.

Other factors associated with La Nina and other global factors are keeping a very stubborn area of high pressure across the southeast part of the United States, keeping this area mainly warm and dry for much of this winter.

Many are rejoicing the early start to spring to our south. Some are posting on social media that spring is officially here, and that winter is over! I’m here to tell you that this is much too premature. Winter still has a full month to go. It’s only February 20th, folks!

Again, this would be similar if I began posting on social media that summer was over, and fall is here, on August 2oth! I’m sure many would be shocked and outraged at such a statement!

I see trouble written all over this! Weatherbell Analytics Joe Bastardi has done quite a bit of research over the years, comparing winters such as these, with warm February’s, and what happens the following March.

Sea surface temperatures and global patterns are very similar to several other years in the past, which featured similar weather during the winter. In these winters, specifically winter 1959-60, and 1983-84, winter made startling comebacks the following March.

At the beginning of March, 1960, a fierce blizzard struck the east coast, specifically eastern Massachusetts, with up to 30″ of snow, and hurricane force winds. Just a week earlier it was in the 60’s in Boston!

In March 1984, unusually cold temperatures to the north, clashed with unusually warm temperatures to our south, leading to two major winter storms that year.

The first struck on March 15th and 16th, and brought feet of snow to interior New England. The second, was a dangerous nor’easter, which struck with a vengeance on March 28th and 29th.

This massive cyclone brought hurricane force winds, icy wet snow plastering everything in its path, along with knocking out power to thousands in Boston with significant tree damage.

There have been countless other intense nor’easters over the years, which have struck New England through March, and even the first half of April.

No two years are alike in the world of weather, but I’m seeing signs of an early false spring brewing this year for many in the east. With similar sea surface temperatures, and other similar global patterns, I’m expecting a wild month of weather in New England this year in March!

So despite the early warm weather, don’t let your gaurd down, winter is not over yet for many here in New England! Another big storm or two is on the table, before we truly turn the corner to spring sometime in April.

Now for your weekly ski and snow boarding forecast. After back to back significant dumps of snow last week, ski resorts will have to work a bit harder this week, as winter retreats for a time. Overall, I will give conditions a 7 out of 10.

There’s plenty of snow, and it’s not going to be a nuclear meltdown. Just plan for more springlike conditions for this week, as snow softens up during the day, along with some melting.

A strong system is forecasted to move into the region on Saturday, with some heavy rain showers. On Sunday, these showers may turn to snow showers, with colder weather moving back in. Thereafter, expect colder weather to begin moving back into the resorts during the first week of March.

Now for your local outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out 10. Mainly springlike weather! Expect mainly sunny along with some puffy fair weather clouds, for the rest of your Monday. It will be colder than yesterday, with highs only near 40.

Tonight will be clear along with seasonably cold low temperatures. Expect 20’s in urban areas, and teens across suburbia.

Tuesday will feature pleasant condtions, with sunny skies in the morning, giving way to some increasing afternoon high clouds. It will be cool, but not cold. Temperatures will mainly be in the upper 30’s along the coast with a light seabreeze, to mid 40’s inland.

A very weak system will be crossing New England tomorrow night. There may be some patchy areas of light rain, which may freeze in some locations. Please be aware of this! Not a big event, but it only takes a little to create slippery roads.

A warm front is forecasted to push through southern New England Wednesday. If this goes according to plan, watch winds freshen out of the southwest, along with temperatures warming up to the low 50’s.

Fair weather is expected Wednseday night, along with mild temperatures, with lows mainly in the 30’s.

With a high launching pad from Wednesday overnight lows, Thursday could very well feature temperatures similar to yesterday.

In fact, with less snow cover, they could even be a tad warmer in many places! This means many locations may reach the lower to mid 60’s! This would be the pick of the week!

Friday may be warm too, but with more clouds around, it may keep temperatures held back only in the 50’s.

Right now, the weekend looks a bit unsettled. A strong storm will be tracking west of New England. This will bring a strong southerly flow into much of the region on Saturday. As the cold front approaches from the west, expect a period of rain to move through the region, especially later Saturday into Saturday evening. There’s even a chance of a rumble of thunder?

Sunday should see a return of the sun, but it will be blustery and cooler, with highs in the lower 40’s. Just about average for this time of the year.

By the way, with this warm surge this week, February may indeed end up warmer than average, yet again. This would make the last 21 out of the last 23 months above average here in Boston. Something to monitor moving forward.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the month of February, and also have a preview of March. I think I dropped a few hints earlier!

I will also have a general spring forecast for the three month period of March, April, and May. In the meantime, enjoy the early spring weather…then let’s see if history repeats itself!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

OH, ORSON! 2/13/17

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! And what a weekend it was, weatherwise! Yes, it’s been a winter onslought which has revived bad nightmares from just two years ago.

It all started last Tuesday, when an innocuous looking storm suddenly turned into a snowy surprise. Many communities from Boston north received a very quick 3 to 6″ of wet snow, with treacherous road conditions.

After a very icy start Wednesday morning, temperatures soared into the 50’s, melting most of the snow that fell Tuesday. However, Mother Nature was just warming up!

A fast moving nor’easter quickly escalated into a blizzard in Boston Thursday afternoon, with many communities picking up close to a foot of snow!

Yet another fast moving Alberta Clipper system brought another 2 to 4″ of fluffy snow to Boston early Saturday morning.

Hot on the heels of that storm, another even bigger storm was forecasted to hit much of New England on Sunday and into Monday. Up to this point, my forecasts were working out pretty well, and the storms were behaving.

However, the wheels fell off the wagon as they say, with this last one!

First, I would just like to take a moment to say thank you to all of the kind comments, and reports everybody was giving me on Facebook yesterday! It made tracking the storm fun, while interacting with my friends!

What started out with a storm, which seemed to be behaving as I planned, turned into an absolute nightmare for many in the weather community, including myself.

There were always going to be two parts to the storm. Rather than confusing people, the NWS decided to just blend it into one, long drawn out affair. I thought this was a good idea as well, and followed suit.

I had high confidence in snow spreading into New England from the first storm during the day on Sunday. While this was happening, the drama began to build. First, I was surprised that a rain/snow line showed up unexpectingly.

It was like an unwanted guest arriving at the door. I was like, who is this? I did not remember inviting you to the party!

I knew there was going to be a rain/snow line, but I thought it was just going to be along the south coast of New England. Which it was, but the surprise was when a coastal front developed in Boston.

A coastal front is when a front develops, with mild east winds blowing in from the east, and cold northerly winds draining down on the west side. Where this coastal front sets up, can mean the difference of where the rain/snow line will set up.

In some storms, the coastal front can act as a convergience zone, with “mild” moist east winds, converging with the cold north winds, can produce prolific snowfall rates in winter storms along the coast. This can be achieved only if the airmass in place is bitterly cold.

In fact, many of our blockbuster storms two years ago can be traced back to the coastal front, acting as a trigger mechanism to extreme snowfall rates. Otherwise, if the airmass is not cold enough,the east wind can turn the snow to rain.

In yesterday’s case, the coastal front developed right along the immediate coastline. Mild east winds did indeed mixed the snow with rain at Logan Airport, holding accumulations way down at the official recording site.

However, if you live in the western part of the city, such as Brighton, or southwest part in the West Roxbury area,  you experienced heavy wet snowfall, which accumulated double to that of what fell at Logan.

Due to the heavy wet nature of the snow, I already knew my snowfall projections were in trouble. I had forecasted 8″ of snow to fall at Logan, and possibly upwards of 12″ in the inland parts of the city. At the end of the first part of the storm, we were barely at half this amount.

By the way, this was not the case even further inland. In these locations, just to west and northwest of Boston in cities and towns such as West Newton, Arlington, Billerica, a solid 9 to 12″ fell. This part of the forecast worked out pretty well, as up to a foot was forecasted, and that’s what indeed fell.

Further north, up into much of New Hampshire, the storm worked as forecasted.  As you moved closer to the seacoast and up into much of the state of Maine, the storm did not disappoint, with many locations receiving between 18 and 24″ of snow.

But which storm was it? In a very complex set of events, these locations were directly affected by both storms at the same time.

Unfortunately, for my forecast in Boston, the second storm developed a bit too slow, and at the last second, formed about 100 miles further east than what computer guidance was predicting. In fact, computer models held on to the heavy backlash for Boston Monday morning as late as mid to late afternoon, Sunday.

Had this storm developed where computer models were predicting, just about 75 miles to the east of Cape Cod, Boston would of benefited from an intense backlash of heavy snow and strong winds today. No doubt, we would of added an additional 5 to 10″ or more of snow on top of the snow that we received yesterday. This would of made it a very memorable storm.

As it urned out, this was New Hampshire and Maine’s storm all along. Eastern Massachusetts tried to get greedy and steal some of the moisture from them!

In the end, I don’t hear many complaints about the lower than expected snowfall amounts in Boston! however, that gives me no solace.

I truly devote as much time as I possibly can to try and get the forecast right. I can assure you that I will never forget this “ghost” storm as I’m calling it!

Before I get to the forecast, I quickly wanted to go back memory lane, in a brief segment of weather history. Back on this date in 2013, a severe blizzard hit much of the northeast. The storm was named Nemo, but it was anything but a cute Clown fish.

Nemo ripped through New England, with hurricane force winds, coastal flooding, and prolific snow amounts. Snowfall totals ranged from between 2 and 3 ft, with some parts of Connecticut reporting a staggering 40″ of snow!

Now for your weekly ski and snow board forecast. What a winter it has turned into for ski country! I’m very happy to report that they received between 1 and 2 ft of snow this past weekend! Skiing could not be any better! For this reason, I’m rating this week a solid 10 out of 10! Get out and enjoy!

I’m expecting another snow event to hit on Wednseday. Right now, I’m expecting between 3 and 6″ in Vermont and New Hampshire mountains, but possibly between 6 and 12″ in the Maine resorts. Thereafter, expect fair weather heading into the weekend, with possibly a slight warming trend, and some showers or flurries this weekend.

Now for your outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect changeble conditions acroos the region for the rest of today. Snow showers will continue in coastal New Hampshire, extending into extreme eastern Massachusetts at times.

As for Maine, just look for a white flag waiving around. After today’s blizzard, many locations now have between 3 and 6 feet on the ground. It will be windy, with highs mainly in the 20’s. Watch for clearing skies tonight, with diminishing winds. It will be cold, with lows in the teens and twenties.

For your Valentine’s Day, expect sunny & dry weather , with highs in the lower to mid 30’s. Don’t forget your Valentine!

Watch for increasing clouds Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 20’s. Wednesday was supposed to be a yet another large winter storm for most of us. However, it looks like to be another case of too little too late for us.

Two storms were projected to phase on the east coast, and blast New England with a memorable event. I’m sure to everyone’s relief, this is NOT going to happen.

Instead, one storm will go north of us, and another south. We’ll be in between, with a chance of a period of rain, or rain and wet snow mix.

Better chance for snow north and west of Boston, and rain or mix in the city. There is a possibility of these two storms merging in the Gulf of Maine. If this happens, Maine could receive yet another heavy snowstorm.

Thereafter, expect much quieter weather to begin to move into southern New England, along with a warming trend by this weekend.

In fact, it’s not out of the question, that someone could touch 60 degrees by Sunday! I think I see crocuses popping up through the snow!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about just how warm it’s going to get next week, and if winter will make any kind of a comeback.

I will also take an early bird look as to what kind of spring we may see this year. In the meantime, hang in there everyone, spring is right around the corner!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Don’t Snow On Our Parade! 2/6/17

Hello, everyone! What a whirlwind of a weekend! Saturday was chilly, but with abundant sunshine. Sunday featured more clouds, but temperatures warmed up to above seasonal levels. Later in the afternoon, the sun broke through the clouds, making it seem even warmer.

In last week’s blog, I was concerned about a snowstorm hitting the region for Super Bowl Sunday and today. Fortunately, the upper air pattern did not allow for such a storm to occur.

The title of the blog today was going to read, “Remembering The Great Blizzard of ’78.” I was going to feature this as the main theme of the blog, and reminisce about the legendary storm, especially since this is the exact date of the anniversary. I’m still going to write about this, but something else stole its thunder!

I understand that this is a weather blog. However, from time to time, certain events happen in life that takes prescidence. Besides, people tell me it’s my blog, and I can write whatever I would like!Sometimes, these things are tragedies, other times, happy events that are cause for celebration!

Last night was one of these happy events! Along with a passion for talking and observing the weather, I also enjoy watching and chatting with friends and family about sports.

Over the years, Super Bowl Sunday has turned into quite a spectacle. We, as New England fans, have been blessed to witness not only the best Super Bowl victories of all time, but also the greatest quarterback to play the game of all time!

What Tom Brady and the Patriots accomplished last night, was nothing short of a miracle! It’s tough enough to win one Super Bowl. Mr. Brady has now won 5 of them! The most in NFL history by any quarterback!

Some may not be interested in football. And that’s perfectly fine. But you have to love how the game brings family and friends together to help cheer your home team on! Add to that, all the delicious food and desserts, and you have a fun and exciting night, right in the middle of winter!

I’ll be the first to admit, it wasn’t looking good for our Patriots. In fact, all the odds were stacked against them. Down 28 to 3 in the third quarter, they needed a miracle to pull it off. No team has ever come back from more than 10 points in Super Bowl history, spanning some 51 years…let alone 25!

All was lost, until the chants for a rally began. It started with my sister Pam, brother John and brother in law Michael telling me that it’s not over, and to never give up. This energy transferred to a family friend, Judy Sargent, who kept repeating that they are going to win this game. Mind you, this was when they were down and out at 28-3.

It was as if she had become possessed by an angel from heaven! It did not really hit me until it was 28 to 12, that yes, there actually was a glimmer of hope, and maybe my siblings and friends may be onto something here!

Every play had to break the Patriots way heading down the homestretch. There was no room for errors! Amazingly, this is exactly what happened! From miracle catches, relentless defense, and lazer passing from Brady, the Patriots battled all the way back and tied the score at 28 to 28.

At this point, the momentum had shifted completelt to the Patriots, who then proceeded to win the coin toss for overtime, and march down the field to a game winning touchdown to pull off the improbable!

This may be only a game, but in my mind, this game should teach all of us a lesson about our every day lives. No matter how bad a situation looks, or how far you may be down and out, we should never give up on your dreams! The Patriots proved that it can be done!

Now getting back to my original subject on the blog. It was exactly 39 years ago to the day, that eastern Massachusetts suffered through the most severe winter storm in recorded history.

I say winter storms, because I still believe the Great Hurricane of 1938 is still the worst storm ever to hit New England in recorded history.

The Great Blizzard of 1978, was a severe storm, which began on this date 39 years ago today. There have been many major storms since then, but none have been able to reach all the criteria that the blizzard brought. Some have been close, but ’78 remains the king, in my opinion.

I was only 9 years old at that point. With some simple math, you now know how old I am! I will never forget this storm as long as I live. I was attending Parkway Academy in Roslindale, at the time. Parkway was a cozy little school, set in the woods off the VFW Parkway.

I’ll never forget watching the forecast that early morning, and pretty much going berserk! Many were calling for a major storm, but I believe only one was seeing a historic storm.

Longtime Boston meteorologist Harvey Leonard saw that two storms were going to merge and stall, bringing Boston a historic storm. I believe this was Harvey’s first winter on the job.

When I left for school that morning, even I could clearly see something big was brewing. The clouds were a deep charcoal color, and the wind was already beginning to become gusty.

It was sometime late morning, that I began to see the first flakes flying out the windows at school. The excitement began to build as talk of early dismissal was swirling through the faculty.

To this day, I’m still surprised at the lack of attention given to the kids. It’s as if they were like, you’re released, hope you make it home okay! I’ll never forget the whirling noise the wind made, blowing through the trees. Snow, was already falling sideways, and beginning to rapidly accumulate.

My classmates and myself, were huddled at the bus stop waiting for the bus. I know this is a cliche, but the storm was really worsening by the minute!

By the time I got off at my bus stop, the winds were already near hurricane force gusts. In fact, I told my father, that the wind had knocked me down, but I got up, and continued my way through the storm!

When I got home, I’ll never forget my father tying down the awning on our back porch. Had he not tied it down, the wind would of ripped it off and broke it into pieces.

As we all got home safely, we hunkered down to watch the fury of the storm play out. And ferocious it was! The winds were so strong that night, that it literally was shaking our house. The snow, falling so heavily, that we couldn’t even see across the street!

Through the night, the blizzard was just getting going. Typically, a major storm lasts for a about 12 to 24 hours. However, due to certain atmospheric block, the blizzard stalled south of New England, and continued to pound the region throughout the entirety of the next day.

All day, bands of heavy snow whipped in from the ocean, burying Boston and points to the southwest with excessive snowfall. When it was over, a solid 30 to 50″ of snow was common. Because of the hurricane force winds, drifts were up to measured up to 15 feet!

The real catastrophic aspect of the storm happened on Rt 128 and along the coastline. On Rt 128 a tractor trailor jacknifed, and close the highway down. Thousands of people became stranded in the blizzard, and had to ride the storm out in their car. Tragically, 17 people perished.

Along the coast, the situation was equally devastating. The blizzard coincided with four successive high tides. Because the winds were blowing so strong, it did not allow for the water to vacate the area at low tide. This piled up massive amounts of sea water, leading to devastating coastal flooding. Towns such as Scituate, Hull, Revere, and Winthrop, were essentially destroyed.

When I left school that day, little did I know that I wouldn’t see my classmates for another 3 weeks! We had two weeks off from the storm, and 1 week for February vacation! I’ve said it before, but it very well could of been a once in a lifetime storm.

Now for your weekly ski and snowboard forecast. So far, it hasn’t been a bad ski season at all up north! Though we have not seen much snow down here, there has been plenty of snow up north. This week is no exception. I am expecting a winter storm to hit the ski resorts tomorrow through much of Wednesday.

Like many storms this year, expect a burst of snow tomorrow, to give way to freezing rain and sleet, and possibly some plain rain, only to turn back to snow on Wednesday.

Despite the mix, I’m still expecting an accumulation of 5 to 10″ across the ski resorts…lesser in the valleys. Late in the week, more quick moving systems will add some additional accumulations. It looks like a great weekend for skiing coming up!

Now for our weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions!

Expect beautiful weather for the rest of today, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 30’s. Expect increasing clouds tonight, with lows in the 20’s.

If you are going to the Duck Boat victory parade tomorrow, dress appropriately! Snow will rapidly develop during the morning, and will likely fall steadily throughout the parade route.

During the afternoon, this snow will turn to sleet and then rain out to Rt 128. I’m only expecting around an inch in Boston before the changeover.

As has been the case most winter, icy conditions will continue north and west of Rt 128. Further inland form there, snow and ice will continue through much of the day, where 2 to 4″ may accumulate.

While rain falls here in Boston tomorrow night, watch for icy weather to continue across much of New Hampshire, away from the coast. Temperatures will rise in Boston into the lower 40’s, while remaining below freezing inland. It’s not out of the question that an ice storm could develop across the deep interior.

Wednesday will start off with warm weather in Boston, with temperatures hovering around 50. It will continue to be an unsettled day, with areas of showers, and turning colder. Up north, any freezing rain should change back to snow during the day.

Now, computer models are developing another storm on this front sliding through New England. Should this storm track close enough, much of eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, could be looking at a fairly significant snowstorm starting late Wednseday night and continuing through Thursday.

This winter has been very difficult to forecast any winter events. However, I would not be surprised to see an event with winter storm warning criteria. This would mean many places see in excess of 6″ of snow. This may be enough to trigger delays and cancellations. I will update everyone if conditions warrant.

After the storm ends Thursday night, expect milder weather to be in control from Friday though this weekend. With a fast flow, the weather still could be unsettled, with some periods of rain and snow showers…especially late Saturday and into Sunday.

Well, that’s about it for now! I hope you enjoyed my rendition of the Blizzard of ’78! In next week’s blog, I will be discussingt the weather patterns heading into March. I will also be talking about another big blizzard that hit Boston just 4 years ago!

In the meantime, I’m very grateful to have lived through the greatest storm, and the greatest game in my life! GO PATRIOTS!!!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

January Thaw…Over! 1/30/17

Hello, everyone! It was a fairly tranquil weekend across much of the region. Saturday turned out to be a cloudy day, with temperatures in the low 40’s.

Sunday saw a bit more sun, with temperatures once again reaching the low 40’s. Folks, these are temperatures are more common for March…not January.

This January thaw was like the energizer bunny, it kept going and going! Boston is going to end up with it’s 11th warmest January on record!

Some may say (me), how can we have a thaw, when winter hasn’t even really begun? Yup, it’s another one of those late starting winters in Boston.

Looking back at my weather related photographic memory, each of the last 5 winters have not featured much of anything at least up to the New Year. And a few of those years even included much of January, too!

You really have to go back to December 2010 which featured above normal snow, and below normal temperatures. Since then, it’s been blow torch city, as they say in the weather community!

Oh, we’ve had winters. Aside from the non winter of 2011-12, each year has featured quite a remarkable come back, after starting off so slow.

Even with the record El Nino of last year, Boston accumulated a respectable 36.1″ of snow after January 1st. And there were many near misses that could of easily catapulted us close to an average winter.

Just two years ago Boston achieved the improbable. With only 5″ of snow accumuated up until January 24th, many believed it was going to be the year without a winter.

Well, you know what broke loose after that date! The weather in Boston went completely haywire, with 4 blizzards in succession accumulating over 94″ of snow over the course of the next three weeks!

And if the snow wasn’t enough, Boston also experienced the second coldest month in recorded history that February. Add this all up, and you have what many experts are calling the worst winter ever in recorded history in Boston!

Who could ever forget the massive ice dams across the city, and the destructive damage that came along with them.

It culminated in mid March with Boston breaking the all time snowfall record set back in the winter of 1995-96. This happened all in the course of about 6 weeks.

So with the mild winter so far, are we headed to something similar this year?

I would not panic just yet! At this point, I’m not forecasting a repeat of two years ago! However, as has been the trend in recent years, I am expecting somewhat of another winter revival, if you will.

Unlike the past several years, there’s some things that are different this winter. For one, we have been in a weak La Nina this winter. Just this alone has prohibited coastal snow and cold.

Second, the ocean temperatures in the Pacific are different this year. That long standing warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska is all but dissipated. In its wake, a cold pool of water is now clearly present.

Third, somewhat related to the first two, we have not been able to establish much of any high latitude blocking over Greenland. Even the times that we had it, has not produced any cold or snow of importance in Boston.

Yes, there has been an event or two. I’m specifically talking about folks who live south of Boston and along the South Shore. Here, an early January blizzard surprised many, in such a warm month!

So we’ve basically struck out on our typical winter teleconnections we look for to produce snow. However, there is one more occurring right now, which may finally be the key in bringing some winter weather our way.

Before I get to that, I did want to let you know that part of the reason our winters have been having such a difficult time getting going in recent years, is because the Atlantic Ocean has been much warmer than normal off our coast.

I talk about latent heating and cooling quite a bit. This is because I believe it plays a huge role in our climate. In the fall, it takes longer for the warm water to cool off, relative to the land.

This keeps coastal areas of New England warmer, deeper into the fall, and sometimes even winter. Because the water has been unusually warm the past several years, it has taken the cold air much longer than usual to press down into the coastal plain.

With that being said, I also believe this has been the catalyst in helping coastal areas see some of their greatest snowfalls on record over the past several winters.

Why? As the water finally cools off, it allows the cold air to set up along the coastal plain. The difference of cold air over the land, and warm water over the ocean is called a baroclinic zone.

Two years ago in our record snow blitz, the contrast in temperature was tremendous. Bitter cold air drained down from eastern Canada. This clashed with the warm water off our coast, and resulted in a narrow zone of historic snowfall in eastern Massachusetts.

In addition, all that warm water in the Pacific that year, built a massive blocking ridge of high pressure in western Canada, and Alaska. This forced all of the cold air to be displaced on our side of the continent.

Will this baroclinic zone happen again this year. Yes, I do believe it’s starting to set up even as we speak. However, I don’t believe the contrast will be as great as it was in winter 2014-15. Therefore, I’m not expecting a barrage of 8 ft of snow in 3 weeks time.

You may ask, it’s been so mild so far this winter, what is going to change that now? As mentioned above, we’ve pretty much struck out with all of our typical teleconnections we see during winter.

However, there’s one more occurring now, which may salvage our winter from being a dud, to being more respectable. At least to the levels of what I was expecting back in November.

A phenominon called Sudden Stratospheric Warming, is currently happening in the atmosphere. Folks, if the name sounds scientific and complicated to you, I’m here to tell you that it is!

It’s a very complex set of events that happen in the atmosphere, that is way beyond my knowledge of meteorology.

In a very general explanation, SSW is when a pool of very warm air floods the stratosphere over the North pole. This in turn works its way down the troposhere, and disrupts the Polar Vortex. When the Polar Vortex is disrupted, lobes of cold air migrate from the pole, towards mid latitudes, in places such as New England.

So look for February to be colder & stormier than January. How cold is yet to be determined. It may be very cold the first couple weeks, then ease off later.

As this cold air mixes with energy from the Pacific, I am expecting above average amounts of snow this month too, in the Boston area. Logan Airport typically sees about 12″ of snow in an average February. With a good storm or two, I can see Boston accumulating between 15 and 20″ of snow this month!

In fact, a significant nor’easter is still on the table for the I95 corridor this winter. I’m feeling more bullish about this possibility, due to the fact that the La Nina has now weakened, and has diminished to neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

Now for your weekly ski and snow boarding forecast. I’m rating this week an 8 out of 10. Cold weather is now being established. A weak low pressure area will pass south of the northern resorts this week.

Nonetheless, southern areas could see 2 to 4″ of fluffy snow. Later this weekend, a larger storm may approach the ski resorts, with significant snows. Overall, I’m expecting another very good month of ski conditions for New England!

Now for our weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. Expect a much more wintery week! I will rate this week a 7 out of 10.

Expect considerable cloudiness for the rest of your Monday. It will be colder, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 30’s.

Look for dry weather tonight, with lows mainly in the 20’s across the region.

A fast moving Alberta Clipper type of low pressure will be approaching New England tomorrow. Watch for any early sun to fade behind rapidly increasing cloudiness. Light snow will be spreading across the state during the day from west to east. It should reach Boston between 4 and 7.

Tomorrow night and Wednesday morning is where it gets tricky. I am expecting a general light snowfall of between 1 and 3″ across Boston during this time.

However, with the track of the storm passing just south of Boston, there may be some localized areas that receive some enhancement of accumulations on the order of 2 to 4.” I can’t even rule out some isolated areas receiving up to 6″ of snow. That would be the exception and not the rule.

Just be aware that wintery conditions are on the way from tomorrow night through midday on Wednesday. Even later on in the day on Wednesday, leftover energy upstream, may keep the chance of occasional snow showers and flurries going into the evening.

Thereafter, expect clearing and colder weather to follow for the period Thursday through Saturday. Highs will be in the lower 30’s and lows in the teens and low 20’s. Much more seasonal!

By the way, Thursday is February 2nd, which is Groundhog Day! I am predicting Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow, and another 6 weeks of winter! Were you expecting me to say something different? Sometimes it’s 12 more weeks here in New England!

This leads us into Super Bowl Sunday! GO PATRIOTS!!! In a ironic twist, I’m actually tracking a possible winter storm to be approaching New England.

As was the case two years ago, when a major nor’easter blasted the region the day after the Super Bowl, with nearly 20″ of snow! Right now, I’m not expecting as strong of a storm, but a formidable storm may be on the way starting Sunday night and continuing into Monday.

There’s no way to forecast exact amounts at this point, but it could be big enough for delays and cancellations. Track, intensity, and precipitation types will be monitored closely during the upcoming week, with updates to follow!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about Boston’s biggest blizzard in recorded history, which struck Boston 39 years ago to the day!

I will also be discussing in greater detail our turn to stormier weather in February. In the meantime, get the snowshovel & snow blowers ready…the thaw is over!

Thanks for reading!

Peter

Stormy!! 1/23/17

Hello! How about that Patriots game? Hard to believe the Patriots are going to their 9th Super Bowl! The most in NFL history! As I mentioned in a post earlier, the job is not complete.

I believe the Patriots are savvy enough to know that just making it to the game is not enough! They now have to win the Super Bowl to complete the mission. Anything less would be considered a failure!

How about this weather? Many folks were commenting to me how Saturday felt just like a nice day in April! The low clouds burned off, allowing for sunshine and temperatures well up into the 50’s. Sunday turned cloudy, and was cooler, but certainly not cold. Later in the day, a northeast wind turned the weather damp and chilly.

Had it been just a few degrees colder, that drizzle falling over Gillette Stadium would of been some festive snowflakes falling. As it turned out, many woke up today seeing periods of wet snow showers falling across the Boston area. These snow showers were supposed to be during the game last night.

However, as has been the case all winter long so far, the slightly cold weather was delayed in arriving, resulting in just wet not white to fall at Gillette. But as mentioned earlier, no wet weather could of dampened the mood last night! It was a great night to be had, by all!

As mentioned earlier, many awoke to periods of wet snow showers this morning. Is this the beginning of a major winter storm? Well, yes and no.

A major nor’easter is imminent. However, it all depends where you live, whether you’ll be seeing a nasty wintery mix, or a windswept soaking rain!

Had it been any other year, the Boston area would of been preparing for a crippling blizzard of 2 to 3 feet of snow. This storm has all the makings of a major nor’easter, if not a full fledged blizzard.

The only ingredient missing is enough cold air! The ironic twist to this storm is that it’s occurring during what normally is the coldest time of the year here in Boston.

Also ironic, is this storm is hitting at the exact same day as the great mid-Atlantic blizzard from just last winter! That storm occurred during one of the warmest winters on record for the region.

In basically a non memorable winter for Boston, the mid-Atlantic Blizzard briefly brought heavy snow our area, resulting in a quick 6″ of snow. However, this storm delivered 2 to even 3 feet of snow from New York City on south.

How about this winter? Well, it has been colder…but it’s all about timing with Mother Nature. So far, it’s been a very frustrating year for winter weather lovers here in Boston.

Storms have been tracking too far to the west, or have brought too much warm air with them, changing any frozen precipitation to rain.

Further inland and up in the mountains, it’s been a different story. And this is exactly what the winter forecast called for! I must admit, I thought Boston would be sharing in this wintery pattern more than we’ve had.

The right ingredients are just not there for big snows in Boston so far this winter. For whatever reason, and I do have my theories, it’s just not a snowy winter for Boston.

You may say what about the storm a couple weeks ago? Yes, this was a major storm for the South Shore and the Cape. Even in low snow years, a major storm can still hit a particular region.

But the forecast was not calling for a big snow year to begin with in Boston. I based my forecast on November average temperature profiles. This past November was one of the country’s warmest in recorded history. Hard to believe, but I believe it was even warmer than last years torch!

In Boston it was a bit of a different scenerio. It was warm, but not as warm as last year. I believe Boston finished close to 2 degrees above average for the month. This was warm enough to give me great hesitation for calling for above average snow for Boston.

Still, taken into account certain global factors, I decided to go with snowfall close to the running average for the city, which typically ranges from 40 to 50″ in an average year. With it still being only January, these numbers still have time to materialize.

There have been many a winter where heavy snows occur later in the winter. We only have to go back two years ago, when a unprecedented 94″ of snow fell in 3 weeks in Boston! This all began on January 24th in that year.

Even last year, the second half of the winter produced 36″ of snowfall, starting from January onward. Before you get concerned, I do not see a repeat of the epic 2014-15 winter repeating itself. As I recently, that may of been a once in a lifetime occurrence!

However, after reviewing latest computer data, it’s not out of the question that we could still see one or two good sized snowstorms this winter.

From what I’m seeing, it looks like sometime during Febraury will bring us our best chance for a big snowstorm this winter in Boston. Climatologically speaking, this is the time when we normally see big storms.

Now for a brief segment of weather history. This date has brought several big storms to Boston in years past. In 1978, a severe blizzard brought 2 feet of Boston in one day! This storm was not the infamous Great Blizzard of ’78, which followed two weeks after!

In more recent times, a severe blizzard struck Boston on this date back in 2005. A fierce blizzard hit, with some parts of Plymouth County and Cape Cod receiving close to 40″ of snow, along with storm force winds!

Just two years ago, on January 26th, another severe blizzard struck the region, with Boston receiving over 2 ft of powdery snow! This was the first of 4 blizzards that hit Boston to kick off the worst winter in Boston history!

Now for your weekly ski and snow board forecast. I am giving htis week a 9 out of 10! Just because there’s no snow in your back yard nown here, does not mean it’s the same up north.

This is one of those winters where the weather is much different up north and in the mountains! In fact, a significant storm will bring heavy wet snow to much of ski country tonight and through much of Tuesday!

Expect heavy, wet snow mixed with sleet to pound the region overnight and into early Tuesday. Many ski resorts can expect between 5 and 12″ of snow, depending on how much sleet and freezing rain mixes in.

Watch for a brief break with milder weather on Wednesday, only to start to turn colder heading into Thursday and through the weekend, with on and off again snow flurries.

Now for our regional weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. For the rest of today, expect a increasing gusty norteast wind a times. It will be colder and more damp than recent days, along with occasional periods of wet snow showers from time to time.

It will feel like a storm is approaching. And indeed, expect a stormy night to unfold across the area! Watch for winds to increase from the northeast to 40 to 50 mph in Boston tonight. Along the South Shore and the Cape, you could experience winds gusting to near 60 mph tonight!

It’s not out of the question for some locations to see near 70 mph winds! With winds like this, be prepared for some localized power outages, and tree branches falling. Be careful out there!

In addition, a wall of moisture will be pivoting up from south to north. Here in Boston, this moisture will be mainly in the form of rain.

However, I can’t rule out some mixed precipitation to start, which would include areas of snow and sleet. This may create a slushy coating to briefly create some slippery travel. Later, heavy rain will wash any accumulation away.

Expect mainly heavy rain along the South Shore and Cape Cod with this storm. If you live between Rt 128 and I495 north of the Mass Pike, you can expect a longer period of pelting sleet and icy snow, which may accumulate between 1 and 3″ of cement like ice.

Be very careful if you are out in this area overnight, it will become very treacherous!! This area should change to rain later tonight, before the morning commute.

North and west of I495 heading into north central Massachusetts and New Hampshire, expect a very wintery night, with heavy wet snow, sleet and freezing rain to fall much of the night and into tomorrow morning!

This will result in multiple hazards including some power outages, trees down and treacherous travel conditions. In this area you can expect between 3 and 8″ of snow, sleet and a glaze of freezing rain. This is not a lot of snow for this region.

However, because of the heavy sleet and freezing rain expected, it will be very heavy and compacted, and will be much more of a hardship to move than triple that of light fluffy snow.

By the way, for folks who live along the New Hampshire and Maine seacoasts, you can also expect a wintery mix of precipitaion, which may or may not change to rain overnight. It’s a tough call in these locations, as strong onshore winds may warm up within 5 miles of the coast, for a brief change to rain. You too can expect between 1 and 3″ of a heavy mixture.

The storm should begin to slowly wind down during Tuesday afternoon for most, but may continue across ski country for much of the day. Otherwise, expect milder weather for Wednesday and Thursday around here with highs mainly in the 40’s.

Watch for mainly dry and colder weather for Friday through Sunday, with highs in the 30’s, and lows in the teens and twenties. This is seasonal.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about the possibility of that big snowstorm I’m expecting sometime in February. I will also have your new ski and snow board forecast.

In the meantime, not too much to complain about with this storm, snow in the mountains and rain in the city! Just the way most folks like it!

Thanks for reading!

*Always feel free to comment or ask any questions about the impending storm, or the weather! I enjoy the interactions!

Pete

Icy Storm…N.H. & Maine! 1/16/17

Hello! Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day! After a legitimate January thaw last week, temperatures came back to reality over the weekend, with more seasonable conditions across much of the region.

A small storm threatened to bring snowy conditions to the game in Foxboro Saturday night. As it turned out, the atmosphere was just too dry, as snow evaporated before reaching the ground. If you looked real carefully, you may of counted about 9 flakes fall during the fourth quarter!

Some might question whether it was a legit thaw. Not because it didn’t get warm enough, but because there hasn’t been much of a winter to begin with. This is just fine for many!

If you want my opinion, this winter just seems like an extended fall, so far. Yes, we’ve had a couple decent snowfalls, but all in all, it’s been a piece of cake, for us here in Boston. Personally, I enjoy thaws much more, after we’ve experienced some harsh winter weather.

Overall, we are experiencing a warmer than normal winter, with near average precipitation and snowfall, up to this point. It may not seem as if it has snowed much.

This is because every time it has snowed this winter, Mother Nature performs a houdini act, and literally evaporates the snow overnight!

This has happened twice so far this winter. Once back in December, when close to 5″ disappeared overnight. Then again, just last week, when 7″ quickly melted. This was in Boston.

After an impressive storm dumped between 12 and 20″ on the South Shore last weekend, it didn’t take long for the January thaw to make quick work of that either, with only some piles left in shady areas.

With temperatures close to 60, the light powdery snow didn’t stand a chance. In a day or two, it was gone! Again. you won’t hear too many complaints from most folks!

It’s not like it wasn’t forecasted to be like this. Back in my winter forecast, I did mention that this winter was going to feature great variability, with rapidly changing conditions.

Looking over the latest weather data, it appears that much of New Engand is still in the midst of the January thaw. However, a complex set of events is going to place a temporary interuption in the tranquil weather pattern this week.

A storm system, developing in the Ohio Valley, is going to track towards New England tomorrow.  This storm would like to track west of us. If this were to occur, we would experience some rain across much of the region, even up north.

However, because there is some blocking noted over the North Atlantic Ocean, this storm is going to get blocked, and try to redevelop south of New England.

This would keep much of New England in the “cold sector” of the storm. In a normal winter, this could spell trouble for much of New England, with heavy snow and ice, even areas close to the coast.

However, not this year. For one reason or another, cold air just can’t seem to get locked in along the coast. This means areas east of I95 is most likely going to warm up just enough, for just plain rain through much of the event.

If you live in the interior of New England, especially northern Massachusetts, much of New Hampshire, and much of Maine, get ready for a messy winter storm!

If you live on a line from Fitchburg, Ma. to Nashua N.H. over to Portsmouth N.H. you can expect a icy mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow…emphasis on the freezing rain. Still, between 1 and 3″ of snow and ice could accumulate.

Further inland, from Rutland VT., to Concord N.H. over to Portland, Maine, you can expect more snow, with less mixing. Here, snow may accumulate between 3 and 6.” Because of the icy nature of the snow, power outages are not out of the question.

The jackpot location for this storm will be just where they need it. Many ski resorts in the White Mountains and up in Maine will receive heavy wet snow, with between 8 and 14″ of white gold! Otherwise, expect between 4 and 8″ in valley locations across the interior.

After this storm moves through, expect the January thaw to resume across the region…especially here in southern New England. I don’t see many 60’s at this point, but temperatures should be mainly in the 40’s for at least the next or so. This will bring us to the last week of January.

At that point, there are some indications of some kind of an attempt for winter to  make it’s presence felt. Remember, it was two years ago, on January 24th, when winter arrived. An when it did… wow!

Boston was hit with 94″ of snow in just three weeks! As I mentioned in earlier posts, I do not see this type of extreme even happening this year. In fact, that may of been a once in a lifetime event that we witnessed.

With that being said, it looks like we may have a short window for the coastal plain to receive much of our accumulating snow for this winter. A combination of high latitude blocking, and a active jet stream, may be just the right combination to bring a good storm or two to the Boston area, from about late January to mid February.

Looking way ahead to the long, long range, it appears as if things will be changing up in the teleconnections again. The current weak La Nina, may give way to a weak El Nino (slightly warmer ocean in Pacific Ocean) this summer heading into next winter. This type of  situation, may be much more conducive to bringing back heavy snows to Boston next winter. So enjoy the break while we have it!

Now for your weekly ski and snow boarding forecast. With the expected storm, I am rating this week a 9 out of 10! As mentioned earlier, a snowstorm is headed for much of ski country, with many resorts picking up between 8 and 14″ of heavy wet snow!

Just be aware driving up there, as roads will become treacherous! Thereafter, expect some lingering snow showers on Thursday, then dry and seasonable weather heading into the weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect beautiful weather for the rest of you holiday Monday. It will remain mainly sunny, with light winds, and temperatures near 40. Expect some increasing high cloudiness tonight, but otherwise it will be dry and chilly, with lows in the teens and twenties.

Tuesday may feature some early sunshine, but clouds will begin to increase and thicken up during the day. It will be cool, with highs in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. Late in the day, precipitation will be overspreading the state from west to east.

As mentioned earlier, this will fall as mainly rain inside of Rt 128 and I95. However, just north and to the west, this most likely will fall in the form of freezing rain and sleet. This may make for a icy ride home for many commuters.

Tuesday night will be a wintery night for many folks who live across the interior of New England. A mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow will fall for a good portion of the night, west of I95.

Expect mainly rain, with maybe some sleet mixed in for the Boston area, with all rain along the immediate coast, points south. Temperatures will range from near freezing inland to the mid 30’s along the coast.

Watch for icy conditions first thing Wednesday morning! Again, this is especially true across the interior of New England, areas north of the Mass Pike, and west of I95.

Icy precipitation could linger into the morning in this region, with light rain along the coast. Snowy conditions may persist up north, in ski country…espcially across Maine.

Watch for slowly improving conditions in Boston during the afternoon, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30’s.

Milder weather will return to southern New England for the period Thursday through Saturday, with mainly dry weather and highs in the 40’s. It will be colder up north, with the fresh snowpack.

Right now, a back door cold front may turn things a bit chillier for Sunday. At this point, the big game Sunday night in Foxboro looks to be on the dry side, with temperatures in the upper 30’s. A storm may be gathering for next early week, but for now, let’s keep it dry. Go Patriots!!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking in greater detail, about that possible pattern change later this month. I will also have your weekly ski and snow boarding forecast.

In the meantime, don’t let your gaurd down! It can still be wintery here in New England, even during the middle of a thaw!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

January Thaw…Then What?? 1/9/17

Hello! Well, winter decided to make it’s presence felt after all! A snowstorm…even a blizzard for some parts of Massachusetts blasted the region during the day Saturday, and did not quit until sometime early Sunday morning.

Bitterly cold temperatures followed on Sunday, with temperatures barely getting out of the teens in many places, despite bright sushine all day.

While last weeks storm hit areas to the north and west of I495, Saturday’s storm focused its fury mainly along the coast, mainly east of I95. And in many places, what a storm it was! Many locations around Boston received betwen 7 and 10 inches of fluffy snow.

However, if you live south of Boston, and especially along the South Shore heading down towards the Cape, this storm escalated into a blizzard! Many towns in this area received between 12 and 20″ of windblown powder! This included much of the Cape, where quite a blizzard unfolded.

This proves once again, some of New England’s most fierce winter storms, target the South Shore of Boston and Cape Cod. While these locations mix with and change to rain in many storms, it’s not always the case.

This is especially true in recent years, when bitter cold air has pressed in from the north, and clashes with a intensifying low pressure off the coast. The result has been heavy ocean enhanced snowfall, along with storm force winds whipping in from off the ocean, creating fierce blizzards in locations you wouldn’t normally expect them!

No doubt, this was a very tricky storm to forecast. Earlier computer model data were showing this storm passing harmlessly out to sea. However, as the week progressed, the storm was trending closer and closer to southern New England.  It got to the point where I was very confident that the Cape was going to get hit with a significant winter storm.

The tricky part was figuring out just how far inland and to the north the heaviest precipitation was going to make it. Because of the frigid air mass over the region, a change to rain, or even mixing was not an issue with this storm.

In this particular storm, and with many winter storms for that matter here in eastern Massachusetts, we focus our attention on the coastal front. This is a front, where there’s convergience of air, resulting in heavy precipitation. Sometimes this coastal front also deliniates the rain/snow line. But because it was so bitterly cold in this storm, it focused on a wind shift line. With moist, northeast winds on the east side, and bitterly cold north winds on the west side.

Much of southeastern Massachusetts had moist northeast winds coming in off of the ocean during this storm. This enhaned snowfall rates, with some areas receiving snow at 2 to 4″ per hour! Meanwhile, up in Boston, winds remained north, or even northwest at times. This is fed bitterly cold air down into the city, but also dried out the feeder bands coming in from the ocean. Boston was right on the line of the heaviest snows from this storm. Though some heavy bands of snow migrated through the city, dry air from the north prevented us from getting clobbered as our neighbors to our south. Nevertheless, the 7 or 8″ of snow that fell across the city  made for treacherous travel, and very wintery conditions.

By the way, I did post an update on my Facebook page. Sometimes, time does not allow me to make a formal post on my blog, and a quick update is more feasable.

I also very much enjoyed interacting with the many friends who commented! It kept things fun and interesting, and added a new dimension to my passion!

So, was this storm a surprise to me? Yes and no. I was surprised how the pattern evolved so quickly to support such a storm in southeast New England.

I was also surprised the Cape got hit so hard, after such a warm fall, and relatively mild winter so far. I didn’t think the Cape had much of a shot at such winter storm this year. I was wrong!

With that being said, I did mention we did stand the chance of seeing a good storm or two this winter. I was fully expecting this at some point, if not later in Jaunuary, then in February or even in March this year.

I did also mention several times that this was going to be a very volatile winter, with large swings of warm and cold weather, along with several winter storms, resulting in a fairly normal winter overall across the region when all is said and done.

You would be very surprised to know, that Boston is actually running 1″ ahead of average this winter so far. This leads me to believe that my prediction of between 40 and 50″ of snow for the season in Boston, looks like it’s right on track!

So what’s next? Well, if you’re already tired of the cold and snow, I have some good news for you. And I know I have a few of these fans…you know who you are!

A couple quick comments. Fisrt, this is not going to be a repeat of the historic winter of two years ago. Atmospheric factors are not supporting such a winter this year. Second, we have an extended January thaw on the way!

By the end of this week, most of the snow we received this past weekend, will be gone, aside from some snow banks! There will be a brief interruption in the mild weather this weekend, only to turn warm all over again for next week!

One may think,  is winter over? Remember the theme of the winter, great variability! I am seeing signs that winter will return later in January.

However, I still don’t see any one pattern getting locked in. Expect variability right through March, with times of cold and snow, and times of tranquil, mild weather.

In fact, the extremes may increase as we head towards March. I can see very warm to hot weather quickly building in the south this spring.

At the same time, very cold air will be reluctant to leave in the north. This could set the stage for some extreme weather events, with severe weather in the south, and blizzards to the north. We shall see as we move closer to March!

Now for your weekly ski and snow boarding forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Ski resorts may receive some snow and ice Tuesday night into early Wednesday. There may be 1 to 3″ of snow.

However, this is going to change to rain with milder weather from late Wednesday through early Friday. It will then  turn abruptly colder later Friday through this weekend, with the chance of some accumulating snow moving in late Saturday and into Sunday. So it’s not all bad!

If you are planning on constructing an outdoor rink this winter, I would say proceed with caution! If we had several weeks of weather like this past weekend, I would say great!

However, this winter is much to unstable, especially here in southern New England. Bitterly cold air, will give way to periods of warm, rainy weather. Such a period is coming this week.

As mentioned above, I can see these patterns continuing for the rest of the winter.  In short, you can have periods of ice skating and outdoor hockey fun, but it will not be consistent. So pick your times carefully!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect cold weather for the rest of today, along with increasing high clouds. Temperatures will remain in the lower 20’s.

Tonight will turn cloudy. It will not be as cold as recent nights, with lows mainly in the teens and twenties.

Tuesday will be cloudy and milder. Highs will warm into the 30’s most places. Late in the afternoon, a brief period of light snow or ice pellets may move through the Boston area. North and west of Boston, this wintery precipitation will last longer, and may yield slippery travel conditions, with a dusting to up to an inch of snow.

This will move through, and the rest of tomorrow night will feature milder weather moving into the region. Later at night, a band of showers will move into the area.

Expect early showers on Wednesday, then just mainly cloudy weather. It will be mild, with highs possibly reaching the low 50’s! Watch for similar weather on Thursday and Friday, with mild weather continuing and a chance of some showers from time to time, though a washout is not anticipated at this time.

Later Friday, a cold front may slip through the region, with dropping temperatures late in the day and at night.

This weekend looks tricky. An arctic high pressure area will be building north of New England. At the same time, a storm may develop in the Ohio Valley, then move east.

If this storm passes south of New England, we could be dealing with a wintery type storm. This would mean increasing clouds late Saturday.

At this time, it’s looking mainly cold and dry with cloudy skies for the Patriots game Saturday night. However, I can’t rule out some light snow moving in later in the game.

Right now, Sunday could be a messy day, with snow, which may mix with sleet and freezing rain, and may change to plain rain along the coast. It does not look to be as big of a storm as this past weekends.

Whatever happens Sunday, next week looks to warm up again, with areas of rain, only to turn colder again after that!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my second half of winter outlook. I will also have a new ski and snow board forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the January thaw…it’s not every January we see temperatures in the 50’s!

Thanks for reading!

Pete