New Year….Same Pattern! 1/2/17

Happy New Year! I hope everyone had a peaceful and happy beginning to 2017! There were some areas of light rain and snow, but nothing too serious to cancel plans.

The first day of the New Year, started much like the previous year…quiet, and uneventful. Temperatures also continued the theme of the previous year, with many locations reaching the lower 40’s.

Last Thursday evening was a different story, in some locations. A storm rapidly intensified just east of Boston, bringing a windswept rain to much of eastern Massachusetts.

As you traveled inland from points north and west of Rt 128, the rain changed to a period of heavy wet snow. Some locations in central Massachusetts received up to 10″ of snow.

Even here where I live in West Roxbury, we managed a sloppy inch of wet snow, at the tail end of the storm. The highlight of the evening was observing the flashes of lightning which accompanied the snow. This was due to the rapid intensification of the storm, much like a summer thunderstorm.

Because the storm developed just north of our latitude, the real jackpot winners was up in southern and central Maine, where up to 2 feet of heavy wet snow fell!

Even Portland, Maine, which is along the coast, received close to 1 foot of heavy wet snow. If you go far enough north along the coast, it’s just colder, and storms more often than not, stay mostly snow. All of this was well forecasted from last Monday.

After last years catastrophic ski season, this storm arrived just in a nick of time, delivering deep snows to ski resorts who have missed out on large snowfalls the past two years. It also came at a critical time, when people had vacation time between the holidays.

It’s called the “backyard effect” when folks see snow in their own backyards, they are more motivated to hit the slopes with the family. And no doubt, there’s some truth to the saying.

Diehards are always going to head up north, but it certainly doesn’t hurt for Mother Nature to dump a foot of natural snow in locations where folks needed that push!

There was quite a gradient with this storm, from practically nothing right along the shoreline, to nearly a foot of snow, just 30 miles away in some cases.

The storm was the last one to hit, in an otherwise dull year for weather here in much of New England. Other than two back to back snowfalls in early April, there really wasn’t much to talk about in terms of snowstorms last year.

I believe the biggest stories of 2016, was the ongoing severe drought, and unseasonably warm temperatures recorded across the region. Not the headlines you want to hear if you love snow!

In fact, you could make a case that the storm on Thursday was the biggest storm of the year for central and northern New England, most of which hit hardest across the interior.

Otherwise, the year will go down as one of the warmest and driest on record here in Boston. In fact, Boston’s Logan airport only recorded one month which featured below average temperatures. This was last April, which certainly was an anomaly, in an otherwise warm year.

If you go further back into the data, you would find that the last 18 out of 21 months have featured above average temperatures here in Boston. It would of been 19 out of 21 had October 2015 not finish with neutral temperatures.

And what about this drought? Yes, despite some episodes of heavy rainfall, precipitation actually finished below average for the month of December…again!

So the severe drought around Boston is just rolling on into the winter. Overall, Boston finished nearly 11″ below average for precipitaion for 2016.

Again, if you dig deeper into the data, you would find out that Boston has been running yearly precipitation deficits over the course of several years now.

This is the time when our region typically sees our largest storms, with copious amounts of rain and snowfall. So far, this winter has been a big disappointment.

It’s not like it was forecasted to be a drought buster, by any means. I was very conservative with my snowfall forecast for the Boston area, and so far, I’m glad I was.

Overall, I forecasted a fairly typical year for snow around Boston, which ranges anywhere from 40 to 50″ across the city. La Nina’s typically feature many snow changing to rain events in Boston, with most of the snow falling in the mountains.

So far, this year has proven a good representaion of the La Nina (colder Pacific Ocean temperatures off South America). Storms also tend to track very quickly through New England, due to a very strong fast jet stream.

It’s not the snow that I’m disappointed in (well maybe a little), but I honestly thought that it might be a stormier winter. We typically do not see many nor’easters during La Nina’s.

This is because a ridge of high pressure (warm + dry air) typically dominates along the east coast. This prohibits coastal storms from forming. I believed we would experience less nor’easters this winter, which certainly has been the case so far.

What I thought would happen, was that there would be a strong contrast of cold air to the north, and warm air to the south, which would be the battle ground for plenty of precipitation events, some being rain, while others times snow.

This has happened, but unfortunately, the boundry has been much further north and west from where I anticipated. This has left us mainly in the warm sector of storms, with only some showers as the cold front pushes through. If you live in eastern Massachusetts and love snow, it’s one of the most frustrating patterns you will ever experience!

How about for the rest of the winter? It’s tough to say. Computer models are changing solutions and patterns with every run. My weather buddy Remy says this would argue for great variability in the models, and would lead to volatile patterns. As this is what I forecasted in my winter forecast, I fully agree with his assessment.

Most of the real cold and storms appear to be targeting out west, and the plains states. This is not a surprise, as many long range outlooks were on point with this forecast earlier in the winter.

It’s possible, that the La Nina may weaken further later in the winter, turning into neutral state (not cold or warm ).

That, and some other teleconnections may turn in our favor. If this does indeed happen, we may get a small window of opportunity for a period of real wintery conditions even to the coast. If this happens, we may receive enough snow to come close to my forecast of an average snow year.

If it does not, well, chalk it up to a winter that could not be predicted. I, for one, pulled out all the stops in trying to predict what kind of winter we were in for. I won’t feel as bad, knowing that I gave it my all.

Because of the great variability and volatility of the patterns, the possibility of one blockbuster storm is still on the table. If we get one big one, and several smaller events, this could be enough to bring Boston close to average for the season. We shall see!

In the short term, what can we expect this month? January is typically Boston’s coldest month, and we usually average about 14″ of snow.

However, this month can bring great extremes, from nearly no snow at all, to nearly a whole seasons worth. Temperatures can be bitterly cold, or temperate, depending upon the year.

For this year, I’m sticking with the trend. At this time, I see no major shift in the patterns to change what is already going on. I believe we will have periods of cold weather, offset by warm surges, with the warm winning out at months end.

This should keep the streak of above normal months going in Boston. Not by much, but we still should end up a bit milder than average, in my opinion. With active jet streams, we could receive near to slightly above amounts of precipitation.

Right now, I’m going with slightly below average snowfall, with about 7 to 10″ falling at Logan Airport, but more falling inland. Storms should be bigger and snowier up in ski country, where winter will hold a much firmer grip. Remember the volatility, it only takes one major winter storm to make for a memorabe winter!

Now for the weekly ski and snow board forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Unfortunately, there may be a period of mixed precipitation, ice, then plain rain during the middle of the week. Thereafter, cold and dry weather should follow for the balance of the week.

Another weak system may track across the north country towards next weekend, bringing a chance of light accumulations of snow.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect early sun to be fading behind increasing clouds. It will be chilly, with highs mainly in the upper 30’s.

Onshore winds later today and tonight will likely transport some moisture in from the ocean. It looks to be warm enough along the coast for just plain drizzle.

However, there may be some icing issues north and west of I 495 and into southern New Hampshire. Please be aware of this potential if traveling.

Otherwise, expect areas of patchy of drizzle in Boston overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 30’s. A storm system will be tracking west of Boston during Tuesday. Look for milder weather, as winds freshen out of the east and southeast.

In addition, showers will be advancing across the region during the day. The heaviest rains could occur around rush hour, with some torrential downpours.  Periods of showers may continue Tuesday night, some of which may be heavy at times.

Any early rain should be exiting the region on Wednesday, with clearing skies moving in from the west. It will be breezy, with highs mainly in the lower 40’s.

Watch for colder weather to build into New England the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Right now I’m not forecasting any major storms. However, there may be some areas of convergience flirting with the coast from time to time, which may bring some periods of light snow Friday into early Saturday. Otherwise, expect cold and dry weather for the balance of the weekend, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 20’s.

If any offshore storms tracks closer to the coast, we may be dealing with a whole different animal. I will be monitoring this closely over the course of the week, I will post any updates if conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a outdoor ice skating rink forecast. I will also elaborate on our ever changing winter patterns, as well as a new ski and snow board forecast.

In the meantime, same patterns for now, but the clock is ticking for a change!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Storm, Thursday? 12/26/16

Hello, everyone! I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas, and Happy Hanukkah! I had a wonderful, day! It wasn’t the White Christmas I was dreaming of, but it also wasn’t the “torch-mas” of last year!

There wasn’t much snow left in Boston, but there was some snow banks leftover from last Saturday’s snowfall. As mentioned earlier, temperatures were much more seasonal this year, with many areas holding in the upper 30’s.

I apologize for the late post! I had such a nice time yesterday, I decided to enjoy the holiday a bit longer! My first cousin is visiting from California, so I’m very excited to spend some time with her!With time so short, this one is going to be a bit abbreviated.

Just when you thought nothing is going on…Mother Nature could be cookin something up late this week! It is officially winter now, so it’s about that time for some winter weather fun!

It’s really difficult to tell where this winter is headed this year. So far, Boston is running just about average temperatures for December. Logan Airport has received about 5″ of snow so far this month.

This too, is about average for this part of the month. On average, Boston receives about 8″ of snow during December. More often than not, Boston’s snow season kicks into high gear right after Christmas.

Just six years ago today that’s exactly what happened. They called it the “Boxing Day Blizzard” as a fierce nor’easter slammed the the east coast with paralyzing snowfall, and severe coastal flooding.

In fact, some places in northern New Jersey received close to 36″ of wind blown powder from that storm. Boston got clobbered with close to 20″ of snow with white out conditions.

The storm on Thursday will not turn into a blizzard. However, for some, it could be significant nonetheless. This is especially true across inland areas of New England. Does this mean the coast will not see any snow?

This is still a tricky call. Latest computer models that I have seen, actually came in with a bit colder system. If this were true, then I wouldn’t entirely rule out coastal areas, including Boston, from seeing accumulating snow from this storm.

Where is this storm now? It’s actually not one consollidated storm just yet. There will be two pieces of energy which are going to try and merge somewhere close to New England.

The European computer model is forecasting these two pieces of enery to merge just south of Boston. When this happens, the storm is predicted to rapidly intensify into a nor’easter as it passes just east of our latitude.

The American GFS model is looking a bit colder this evening, and also intensifies the storm, but just northeast of Boston. This type of track would keep the heaviest precipitation just to the north of Boston.

It’s interesting to note, that each storm seems to be coming closer and closer to Boston. This is a natural progression of events in a typical winter here.

Some folks in the weather business are writing winter off, saying the La Nina is going to dominate this winter, keeping the worst of the weather in the western part of the country.

This may be true…it was never forecasted to be a severe winter, at least not here for Boston. I still believe in the end, we will achieve my forecast for between 40 and 50″ of snow this winter, which is just about average.

Because of latent heating and cooling, winter typically arrives later in coastal New England, but also tends to linger deeper into the spring. The Atlantic Ocean takes a long time to cool off in the fall, which mutes the arrival of winter.

Either way, it’s looking like a very interesting day shaping up on Thursday. Some areas across the interior of New England may receive 6 + inches of snow, with a rapidly developing storm.

Now for your weekly ski and snow board forecast. I am rating this week a 7 out of 10. Brief warming tomorrow, will give way to snow squalls on Wednesday, and the chance of a significant snowstorm on Thursday. This should set up a fantastic weekend for folks bringing in the New Year on the slopes!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect warm weather to greet you first thing tomorrow morning.

How warm? Well, if 50’s is not warm for you in December here in New England, then you better head back down to Florida!

This warm surge, may also be accompanied by periods of showers. These showers should not last all day. In fact, I’m expecting some clearing skies during the afternoon. It will also turn breezy and cooler later on in the day. So expect a chill in the air as you head home from work.

It should be back to cold weather later tomorrow night, but nothing unusual at all, with temperatures falling back into the 20’s.

Wednesday looks like a mix of sun and clouds, and on the chilly side. with highs mainly in the mid 30’s. Expect increasing clouds but dry conditions for Wednesday night, with lows in the 20’s.

Thursday could indeed turn into a stormy day. At this point,  I am calling for snow to begin in Boston around noontime. If the storm develops as planned, snow would most likely turn to rain inside the I95 corridor.

However, snow could fall heavily across the interior of New England, say north and west of I495, heading into western Massachusetts and into New Hampshire, west of I95.

That’s not the end of the story. If computer models are correct, there is a possibility of the storm rapidly intensifying just east of Boston. If this happens, I could see the rain turn back to a brief period of wind driven wet snow even here in Boston later Thursday night.

How much snow can we expect? Right now, the heaviest accumulations look to be where it stays all snow and falls the heaviest. This would be in areas mentioned above, where a good 6 to 12″ of snow could fall, in a rather short period of time. As you move closer to the coast, amounts should decrease, due to the expected mix and rain.

I would say, between 128 and I495 there could be 3 to 6″ dwindling down to maybe a couple inches in Boston, to no accumulations south and east of the city. This is subject to change…so please check back for updates!

The storm should end first thing Friday morning, followed by clearing and colder weather for the balance of Friday. It will be on the windy side, with highs in the 30’s.

Right now, Saturday and First Night looks dry and on the cold side, with temperatures mainly in the upper 20’s…Happy New Year! Another quick moving system could bring more light snow on Sunday, especially to the ski resorts!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will be discussing about our persistant severe drought here in southern New England, and if any change is in sight. I will also be talking about our current patterns, and what we can expect for January. In the meantime, keep the shovel handy, winter is just getting started!

~Wishing everyone a Happy & Healthy New Year!~

Thanks for reading!

Peter

Winter…We Hardly Knew You! 12/19/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice weekend! No doubt, New England lived up to its reputation in the weather department over the weekend. If you didn’t like the weather, just wait a few hours, and it completely changed!

Many were greeted first thing Saturday morning to our first snowstorm of the season. The snow, which began during the wee hours of the morning, was falling light and steady during the early part of the day.

However, from about 8 o’clock in the morning, until about noontime, snowfall rates increased rather dramatically, with many locations accumulating between 4 and 6″ of fluffy snow.

Towards the end of the storm, the snow briefly turned to rain or freezing rain, depending upon which location you were in. If you live close to the ocean, temperatures warmed up just enough to have the precipitation fall as plain rain.

However, just a few miles back from the coast, rain fell into temperatures which were still hovering below freezing. This created a slight glaze on top of the freshly fallen snow.

Shortly thereafter, the storm abruptly ended, with temperatures remaining in the low to mid 30’s. However, that was not the end of the story!

Later Saturday night, temperatures began to rise. I was very surprised to hear a thunderstorm early Sunday morning, too. This must of been the warm front pushing through the region.

And what a warm front it was! Folks, I’ve been observing New England weather for practically my whole life, and have witnessed quite a few amazing events.

But I don’t believe I have ever seen such a dramatic turn around in the weather around here, in such a short period of time!

Basically, I went to bed staring at a wonderful pre Christmas winter wonderland snowfall, only to wake up some eight hours later to see…nothing! It had practically all melted away! It was as if Mother Nature stuck us in a microwave and zapped the snow away!

On top of all of this, don’t forget Boston was in the deep freeze Friday morning, with low temperatures of 4 degrees, and wind chills close to 20 below! The changes are extreme, even to a seasoned weather enthusiast!

I was speaking with my brother on Sunday, and mentioned to him how cruel it would of been if this snowfall happened a week later on Christmas Eve.

Everyone would of been so happy going to bed with the dreams of having a White Christmas come true! Children would of been heartbroken waking up Christmas morning, only to see that the Heat Miser had melted all the snow!

I for one, would of been one of those children. It was distressing enough for me, a grown man, seeing all the snow gone. Yes…me and White Christmases go way back.

Unfortunately, growing up in Boston, I have had my share of heartbreak of having no snow on Christmas Day. With that being said, I swear we had more snow around on Christmas growing up back in the 70’s.

It all began on that one magical Christmas morning. I can’t recall the exact year, but I do clearly remember it, so it must of been after 1972. It very well could of been Christmas 1974 or 75. Which would make me 6 or 7.

My sisters Val and Pam came running into my room very early in the morning telling me that they have a big surprise! By the tone of their voices, I knew it was something exciting!

They told me to close my eyes as they opened the shade up. When they told me to open my eyes, I saw the most beautiful thing I have ever scene. Big snowflakes falling from the sky, with snow already accumulating on the trees and ground!

This was the most magical snowfall I have ever seen in my life. The snow fell steadily and heavily all throughout Christmas Day and into the night. There were no strong winds or dangerous blizzard conditions, just a very peaceful and steady snow.

Back then, they didn’t treat the roads like they do today. Most side roads remained snow covered, giving it a country feel.

I did some research about that snowfall. Apparently, Boston had been experiencing a very mild autumn that year, and this snow caught many forecasters by surprise.

So what are the chances of a White Christmas this year? Well, I’m sorry to be the Grinch who stole White Christmas, but once again, the chances of a White Christmas around Boston this year are slim to none.

While I don’t see a blow torch like last year, the weather for Christmas is looking more like Thanksgiving around New England this year.

If you recall last year, temperatures were near 70 degrees with full sunshine. This year, it’s looking like many temperatures in the 40’s around the region with increasing clouds.

So where will there be a White Christmas? Well, if you managed to hold on to the snow from Saturday, it might survive the week to have snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

This would be areas far to the north and west of Boston, say by at least 100 miles away. And at that, there will not be any fresh snow to whiten things up before then.

As always, I will continue to hold out hope for a White Christmas miracle. There is one computer model which develops a coastal storm on Thursday. If it intensifies quick enough, it could deliver a quick burst of wet snow, especially interior areas.

However, this is not a reliable model, and I give it about a 10% chance of happening. Even if that model was correct, temperatures behind the storm look very mild for Friday and Christmas Eve, which would melt any snow that would fall on Thursday.

And it doesn’t stop there. Winter, which officially begins on Wednesday, will be taking a long hiatus. This is typical in La Nina years, where we typically see a period of winter weather before the solstice, only to have it retreat once the solstice arrives.

Looking at long range computer models, we may not see much winter weather again until at least the middle of January! If you love snowy weather, the weather charts this morning are as depressing as they can look.

I’m not cancelling winter yet. After what happened two years ago, I don’t think you could ever cancel winter until after March.

But this is not going to be two years ago. The atmosphere does not support that kind of epic event this year. Remember, I was forecasting a typical winter this year for Boston, with the caveat that it could be milder if the effects of La Nina influenced the jet stream.

Also remember that I said it would be an adventure at how we got there, not being a smooth even ride throughout. I knew we would be going through many ups and downs with lots of variability.

Well, that certainly looks like the road we’ll be taking this year. Lots of rapid changes, ups and downs,  with the end result averaging near normal.

Cetainly, the theme of a very warm, and exceptionally dry year will continue right to the end here in Boston. I believe we are on track for having the third warmest year ever recorded here in Boston. Perhaps the New Year will bring in a new regime?

Time will tell, but from what I’m seeing, the same old pattern looks to continue for at least the first two weeks of January.

Could it still snow? Yes, even in a warm pattern, a storm at just the right time could coincide with cold temperatures to produce snow. We are heading into the coldest time of the year, climatology wise.

Now for your ski and snowboard forecast. I would give this week a 7 out of 10 rating. Many areas picked up between 5 and 9″ of snow Saturday. It thawed on Sunday, but not as severe as around here. This week is looking pretty quiet.

As mentioned earlier, a small storm could bring some fresh snow later Thursday and Thursday night. Otherwise, it looks seasonable heading into Christmas.

Another storm could approach later Christmas into next Monday. Right now, odds favor mainly rain, but some frozen precipitation can not be ruled out if just enough cold air hangs on.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 1o around here, too. Expect dry and cold weather for the rest of today, with highs remaining in the 20’s. It will be cold and dry tonight, with lows in the single digits and teens from the countryside to the city.

Tuesday will continue the mainly sunny weather. It will turn a bit milder with highs mainly in the 30’s.

Fair weather will continue for Tuesday night and into Wednesday, with lows in the teens and 20’s, and highs in the 30’s and lower 40’s.

As mentioned earlier, a disorganized, weak storm system will track through New England Thursday. Right now, I would call for mainly rain for the Boston area.

However, there may be some wet snow involved across the interior areas. This is true especially across the higher terrain and ski resorts. It will be on the mild side, with highs in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.

Any leftover precipitation will end on Friday, leaving us with a mixture of sun and clouds, and highs in the lower 40’s.

Christmas Eve looks mild, with a mix of sun and clouds, and highs in the low to mid 40’s.

The tranquil weather looks to continue into Christmas Day, with early sun fading behind some increasing clouds. There’s a chance of some precipitation moving into the region late in the day or at night.

With temperatures in the lower 40’s, odds would favor mainly rain across most of the region. However, it may be just cold enough for some mixed precititation in northern New England, especially in the mountains.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your forecast for the rest of 2016! Sorry, I did not get a chance to discuss the extreme drought this week. With next week being the last week of the year, I think it’s a better time to talk about the year in review. I will also have your new ski and snow board forecast.

In the meantime, whatever weather we wish to have, remember that Mother Nature is the ultimate boss, no matter how much we try and control it!

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Snow to Rain. Bitter Cold. Repeat! 12/12/16

Hello! If anything, it finally felt winterlike this past weekend. Saturday was bright and sunny, with temperatures more fit for January. With themperatures holding in the 20’s most places, it was the coldest December day in nearly 3 years! Sunday was less harsh, with lighter winds, with increasing clouds during the day.

I was able to break away from the work and the city, and head up to my home away from home in coastal New Hampshire. It was cold up there too, but nothing out of the ordinary. Little if any snow up here either, just some patches left over from last week.

As it has become an annual event, I came up to my sister & brother in laws house to go to a Christmas tree farm to cut down a fresh tree! It’s great to get away from the city, and enjoy the fresh air of the country.

After doing this for the past 6 years, there has been snow on the ground for only two of those years. I believe there was some snow on the ground back in 2010 and 2014. There were two years that featured balmy temperatures, which was last year, and again in 2011.  This year, and back in 2013 were rather cold and dry.

However, I would like to add something to this. I got chatting with my brother in law, who more or less grew up in New Hampshire, and he sees things differently. It’s his memory, that he believes winters in New Hampshire started much earlier than in recent years.

He remembers many years with full snow cover for at least the three winter months of December, January and February. I have to say, that I can’t disagree with him on this. Winters have become much more erratic in recent years. Either we get bombarded with an absurd amount of snow, or we can’t buy any snow if our life depended on it!

For sure, Decembers in recent years have become more of an autumn month, than winter. And in all fairness to Mother Nature, it still is officially autumn until the winter solstice arrives on December 21st.

However, I was amazed driving around the other day in my hometown of West Roxbury, to actually see some trees with fall foliage colors hanging on! Thirty or forty years ago this would of been unheard of! So no doubt, fall is extending deeper into the season than it used to.

And when we talk of December, thoughts turn to whether we’re going to have a White Christmas or not. Many have visions of Currier & Ives secenery across New England at Christmas time. In some cases, this still holds true.

However, more often than not, many folks are disappointed when they  wake up Christmas morning to brown lawns and ice free ponds & lakes!

Statistically speaking, the further you live away from the coast, the better chance you have at having a White Christmas! In Boston, for example, you have about a 1 and 4 chance, or about 25% of the time at having snow on the ground on Christmas Day. Not so good odds.

Of course, it always doesn’t work out this way. We could go 7 or 8 straight years without snow for Christmas, then get two or three that are white.

However, as you travel away from downtown, the percentages begin to increase rather dramatically.

If you live in Worcester, your chances grow to about 60% of the time. Out in western Massachusetts extending into southern Vermont and New Hampshire, it’s white nearly 75% of the time.

The exception is along the seacoast, in New Hampshire and Maine, where it drops back down to 60%.

If you happen to live in the northern Maine, you can practically gaurantee yourself at seeing a White Christmas, with snow being on the ground nearly 100% of the time!

In recent years, the luck has not been on our side! Many areas, even across the interior of New England have not been seeing snow on the ground for Christmas.

Up here in coastal New Hampshire, we’ve had a White Christmas only about 4 times in the last 12 years! That’s only about a 33% of the time rating.

How about last year? Well last year was just awful! It was one of the warmest Christmas Day’s on record across much of New England. with a rare green Christmas almost up to the Canadian border!

Many were walking around with short sleeves and shorts, with temperatures near 70 degrees, with full sunshine!

The next question to ask would be whether this is a temporay cycle, or more of a permanent change. This is difficult to answer. However, coming from a personal opinion, I can honestly say that I don’t recall such warm weather and lack of snowfall in December, especially here along the coastal plain.

It could be climate change, or it could be the seasonal shift I’ve been talking about over the last several years, where winters start later, and extend into the spring.

A lot has to do with warmer than normal ocean temperatures, which delays the onset of winter weather. With ocean temperatures beginning to cool off now, we shall see if this cycle changes in coming years.

Now for a quick segment of weather history. I’m not sure if any of you remember this, but I certainly do! Back on December 11 and 12th in 1992, a long duration, fierce nor’easter battered the east coast, especially the northeast from New Jersey up through southern New England.

This storm had everything! Near hurricane force winds, major coastal flooding, and very heavy precipitation. Inland locations were buried with 1 to 3 feet of heavy wet snow.

Elevated locations received the most snow. An astounding 48″ of snow fell on top of Mt Wachusett in Princeton, Ma.

Here in Boston, the storm was also severe. The city was battered with up to 6″ of precipitation. Half of which was a wind swept rain, which turned to a wind driven heavy wet snow, plastering everything in its path. Logan airport accumulated 9,” while many suburbs eclipsed a foot.

I was attending Umass Boston at the time. I will always remember the howling northeast winds whistling through the buildings. I was also fascinted by the snow gradient in that storm, as we got nearly a foot of snow here in West Roxbury, while barely nothing fell right along the immediate coast line south of Boston.

The water equivalent in this storm was reached unprecedented levels for a wnter storm. Typically, 1″ of water equals 10″ of snow. In this storm, only about 4 or 5″ of cement like snow fell with every inch of water!

Now for your ski and snow boarding forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Many resorts will receive between 4 and 8″ of snow today! Cold weather for the rest of the week will allow for good snowmaking conditions.

Overall, it’s looking like a very solid week of outdoor winter sports activities. Just beware of some bitterly cold weather arriving towards the end of the week into the start of next weekend. Otherwise, expect flurries and squalls to freshen up the slopes from time to time.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect any early morning snow to quickly change to rain inside of Rt 128 and up along the coast as far north as Portsmouth N.H. This is after an inch or two in the city and up along the coast to Portsmouth, N.H.

Further inland, towards Interstate 495 and beyond, snow and sleet may persist until late morning, but even here, a brief change over to rain may occur, after between 3 and 6″ of snow falls.

Again, the deep interior of New England, and especially the mountain regions will do best with this system, with between 4 and 8″ of snow falling, with no changeover or mixing expected.

Later today, expect precipitation to end rather rapidly from west to east. Ckearing skies may work in from the west before the sun goes down. High temperatures will be mildest along the coast, with highs approaching the low 40’s. Inland will be colder, with highs mainly in the mid 30’s.

Tonight will feature some leftover clouds, but conditions should be dry for the Patiots / Ravens game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. It will be chilly, but nothing we can’t handle. Temperatures at gametime should be in the lower 30’s, with lows falliing into the 20’s later on at night.

Tuesday should be a nice day, with a mixture of sun and clouds with light winds and pleasant temperatures. Highs should be within a couple degrees of 40.

Tuesday night will continue to be fair and chilly, but not bitter. Lows will mainly be in the 20’s.

A small storm will develop offshore on Wednesday. At this point, I am not expecting any precipitation from this system.

What this system will do is act as a mechanism to yank down some bitter cold air from Canada. This means Thursday will be a very cold day, with highs mainly in the 20’s, under dry conditions.

We may see some snow squalls move through the region later Thursday and overnnight. It will begin to turn bitterly cold, with lows in the single digits in the countryside with snow cover, and teens in urban areas.

Friday will continue to be dry, but it will continue to be bitterly cold! High temperatures will likely remaining in the teens, with gusty winds to boot. This will result in wind chill values of well below zero!

Another storm will be developing to our southwest this weekend. Right now, it looks like a repeat of today. There could be a period of snow and mixed precipitation at the onset, but as this storm tracks to our west, this too should turn to rain along the coast, as warm air invades from the southeast.

As the storm lifts north of our latitude on Sunday, a mild southwest flow may keep temperatures up in the 50’s for a time. Not bad for December!

As I mentioned earlier, this process could repeat itself a couple more times heading into Christmas week. However, there is a possibility that one of these storms could be on the wintery side next week.

Right now, the very early look at Christmas weekend looks to turn milder with a chance of rain. However, all hope is not lost. Looking at the very latest data, that too could trend colder!

If anything changes, I will be sure to update everyone! Christmas Miracles do happen!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing the persistant ongoing severe drought, and whether there is any chance for beneficial precipitation in the last part of December to bring relief.

I will also have your Christmas weekend and holiday forecast. If you are planning on doing any skiing, I will have a new ski and snow boarding forecast.

In the meantime, be prepared for a dose of true New England weather this week…if you don’t like it, just wait a minute, and it will change!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Rapid Changes, Ahead! 12/5/16

Hello! It was a decent weekend for this time of the year. Saturday was blustery, with near normal temperatures. Sunday was a bit colder, but featured a good amount of sunshine. All in all, not too bad!

Well, meteorological winter has arrived, and with it, our first light snow of the season greeted many this morning! A quick moving storm system brought up to 6″ of snow in Chicago yesterday.

As is typical with La Nina winters, this system fizzled as it headed east into New England. Still, many saw their first light dusting of snow this morning, even here in Boston.

After coming off the driest summer on record here in Boston, a La Nina winter is not what the doctor ordered to break the long term drought for us this winter.

But what is La Nina? And what does this mean for Boston this winter? La Nina is the opposite of El Nino. Where El Nino features a warm pool of ocean of the South American coast, La Nina is cold water.

Generally speaking, La Nina patterns typically bring cold and stormy weather to the Pacific northwest, and warm and dry patterns to the southeast part of the United States. New England, is normally caught in between the two.

The tricky part about this, is that La Nina’s and El Nino’s come in different varieties. Depending on several other global factors, La Nina’s can sometimes be cold & stormy here in New England, while other years, it can be mild and dry. Same thing goes for the El Nino.

For example, in our record winter two years ago, we were influenced by a weak El Nino. Last year, when El Nino strengthened to record levels, Boston experienced its second warmest winter on record.

So far from what I’m seeing, we are definitely caught in “no mans land” this year with the La Nina. Meaning storms are going too far north of Boston, or weaken as they head out to sea.

In addition, the pattern right now is not conducive for coastal low pressure systems, or nor’easters to develop. Boston receives most of its snow when storms track south of our location, placing us on the “cold” sector of the storm.

Right now, if you like snow, the pattern is not looking good. Large storms are developing in the Ohio Valley, then tracking northwest of Boston. This places Boston in the warm sector of the storm, bringing us mainly rain.

As the storm passes north of us, it drags a cold front through our area. We get cold for a couple days, then the process starts all over again.

In patterns like this, we may get a brief period of snow or mixed precipitation, before rapidly changing to rain.  This is what they call  warm air advection pattern.

As warm air gets pulled up from the south from the storm west of us, it overrides the cold air in place over New England. Many times, the warm air wins out quite quickly, especially along the coast, changing any frozen precipitation over to rain. With no resistance to our north, the warm air can easily flood the coastal plain.

Today is a classic example of this situation. This is a typical pattern in La Nina winters, and is very frustrating for folks who love snow!

For coastal areas to receive a snowier winter in La Nina years, you need the NAO or Greenland block to be active. This surpresses the jet stream south of New England, forcing storms to cut underneath us, keeping the cold air locked in coastal regions with a cold north to northeasterly wind. So far, the block has been showing up, only to retreat when a storm approaches.

Up north, especially in Vermont, these types of winters can be a bonanza! So far, ski resorts have had several snowfalls, with close to average temperatures. In fact, northern Maine received nearly 3 ft of snow last week!

The reason is because it’s colder in the interior and up north, and most storms can fall as snow. If the jet stream sets up just right, storms can rapidly track along the boundary of warm and cold, resulting in fresh snowfalls every couple days or so. This was the case in the La Nina winter of 2007-08, where northern New England received record amounts of snow!

However, in a pattern like we’re in now, even ski resorts are going to be susceptible to snow changing to mixed precipitation and rain. At least for the next two weeks. Hopefully, the net result will be a surpluss of snow!

So, where do we go from here? Is the winter forecast that I made back in November invalid? Well, for the first time, I had to make my winter forecast with a bunch of clauses attached to it!

The reason was that I could see La Nina tendencies to the winter pattern. La Nina creates chaos in the atmosphere, and no pattern is a lock.

With all that being said, latest long range computer models are weakening the La Nina to neutral during the course of the winter. If this happens quick enough, it could allow for a much colder winter than what I’m anticipating right now.

There’s also a lag period in the atmosphere, which may linger La Nina like conditions deep into the winter. I will be monitoring these developments over the next several weeks.

Because so many teleconnections are cancelling each other out, I decided to take the conservative route and call for a near normal winter this year, fully knowing it could turn out a bit above, or a bit below.

No doubt the bust factor is high. Patterns like this could get locked in for months at a time, resulting in a dud winter. This was the case last year, 2011-12, 2009-10, 2006-07, and 2001-02.

The good news is that it’s only December 5th, and not February 5th. With the astronomical start of winter still over two weeks away, much can still change!

Even my winter formula was not much help, this year! Officially, Boston finished 1.5 degrees above average for November. Meteorologically speaking, the NWS says finishing +1 to -1 is “close” to average.

Officially, this month finished slightly above average. This makes forecasting snowfall in Boston a very tricky proposition! Honestly, it can go either way.

Last week, I listed several big years with similar temperatures recorded during November. But this was a long time ago, and from what I have heard in the field, is that these numbers are no longer valid in todays world, due to climate change.

I would of much preferred temperatures finish at zero, or even slightly below. This is the strongest connection I can find to forecast heavy snow for the upcoming winter in Boston.

For now, I’m still going with an average winter for Boston. However, I could see this winter very easily turning out with less than normal snow around here.

Remember, Logan Airport receives about 44″ of snow on average, with close to 50″ in surrounding towns. This is a good bit of snow, and we’ll have to get into a good wintery pattern to pull this off!

Overall, I certainly see this December being more wintery than last year. However, you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to predict this!  Temperatures are expected to be close to average, with near normal snowfall. Last December was the warmest Decembers in recorded history in Boston!

Now for your weekly ski and snow boarding forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. With colder temperatures, ski resorts will be able to make snow.

In addition, snow squalls will blast the resorts later this week, as even colder air pours into the region. This could result in heavy accumulations in favored upslope locations.  This weekend is looking dry to start, but much colder that what we’ve been used to.

Now for the weekly outdoor activity forecast. This week will feature rapid changes, and is rated a 6 out of 10. Expect any snow to flip to light rain before ending. We may see some breaks in the clouds before the sun goes down later today. It will remain chilly, with highs only in the upper 30’s.

Look for some clearing tonight, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Watch for some early breaks of sun on Tuesday. Later in the day, a fast moving low pressure system will be moving south of New Engand. If the precipitation holds together and comes close enough, we could see a mix of rain and snow.

If the storm develops quick enough, it could drag in just enough cold air to turn this over to a period of snow tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.

This does not look like a big storm, however it could bring slippery travel to the Boston area early Wednesday morning, especially to the north and west of the city.

Later Wednesday, skies should brighten, with high temperatures in the lower 40’s. Expect fair weather Wednesday night, with lows in the 20’s and low 30’s.

Thursday is going to turn into a blustery day, with a mix of sun and clouds. Later in the day, watch for some rain showers which may turn to snow showers and snow squalls as a strong cold front moves though. A flash freeze is possible as snow squalls move through. Please be careful on the roads!

Friday and Saturday look dry and colder! High temperatures will only be in the lower 30’s, with a biting wind! Saturday night will be the feel of winter, with lows in the teens!

Expect lighter winds on Sunday. It will still be cold, but with less wind, it will feel more tolerable. Some computer models are showing a system rapidly approaching from the west.

If this holds true, look for increasing clouds, along with the chance of light snow developing.

This could continue Sunday night into early Monday, before tapering off. Again, a big storm is not anticipated, but it is something to keep an eye on during the week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about our chances for a White Christmas this year! I will also have a new ski and snow boarding forecast.

In the meantime, it could be one of those weeks in New England weather. If you don’t like it, just wait a minute, and it will change!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

More Wet, Than White! 11/28/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving! I spent Thanksgiving at my home away from home up at my sisters house in coastal New Hampshire.

It was a very nice day. Unlike last year, it was just cold enough to light a fire this year. In fact, there was a brief period of snow that added to the festive gathering!

Overall, it was a fairly typical late November day across New England. While southern New England experienced some light flurries and sprinkles, ski areas up north rejoiced opening day with periods of snow, with a very wintery look to the day.

Black Friday was no bargain, weatherwise. It wasn’t anything terrible, but low clouds, drizzle and fog kept with the theme of the November like weather.

The gloomy weather extended into Saturday morning, with pea soup fog greeting everyone early in the morning. Skies brightened later in the day, but a cool north wind kept temperatures seasonal across much of the region.

Sunday dawned chilly, but bright sunshine warmed the region back up to the mid 40’s, which is still slightly below average for the date. Later in the day, a deck of clouds moved in, and winds picked up out of the north, sending temperatures tumbling into the 20’s last night, with a heavy frost across the area.

Last week, I published my official 2016-17 winter forecast for New England. Am I ready to throw it in the trash? Not yet! Although, since I made my forecast, there have been several new developments I would like to share with you.

Computer models have been flip flopping like a fish out of water, as to how severe the winter is going to turn out. With each run, weather enthusiasts mood changes from excitement to gaurded pessimism.

What saddens me, is all the bickering that goes on in the weather community. Some of this stuff gets downright nasty. True, there are some who participate in “wishcasting” which means they forecast or hype reports for weather that they want to see.

In many cases, snow lovers are guilty of this practice. On the other hand, there are many who enjoy playing killjoy, and squashing the hopes of many hoping for a good storm or two. In the end, some semblence of balance is needed.

Being a meteorologist is an important job. Many companies, municipalities, and general public rely on their information to help plan for major events, school closings, and public safety. Embellishing this information could result is hazardous outcomes.

I always said, the best meteorologists, or weather enthusiasts are ones who relay important information in a professional manner, while also displaying a passion for their work. A fine balance for all of us to achieve, indeed!

As I mentioned last week, this is going to be a very tricky winter! Though computer models are a great tool, most have to rely on pattern recognition, experience, and clues from Mother Nature.

For me, this is crunch time for my forecast. I stressed on the daily weather report earlier in my post, because this is the critical period that I watch to determine what kind of winter we’re in for.

I carefully monitor November mean temperatures to help me determine how much snow Boston is going to receive for the winter. I base the forecast on the average mean determined at the end of the month.

So how are we doing this month? Well, the first 19 days of November featured temperatures which averaged close to 3 degrees above average. If these temperatures were to continue, another winter of below normal snow would be on the table.

However, as expected, a shift to colder weather arrived on November 20th, and has been with us since. This has lowered the averge temperature to around +1 for the month. A couple more days of the month look close to or slightly above average. At the end of the month, it looks like we will finish November about a degree and a half warmer than normal.

According to the theory, this mean temperature is still within “average.” Despite it being a bit above, it’s not greater than 2 degrees. If it was a bit below average, I would certainly feel much more confident in a winter featuring above normal snowfall.

However, my research shows that this mean temperature for this November, still places us in the wheelhouse of winters which featured above normal snowfall for Boston. The winters of 1977-78, 1963-64, 1975-76 are just a few examples which featured similar November temperatures.

With that being said, this average temperature for November, makes this winter a bit more of a wildcard, for sure. For this reason, I’m still very comfortable with my initial forecast calling for between 40 and 50″ of snow for Boston this winter.

As I said earlier, computer models are offering no help. There are 51 members, and virtually all are showing a different solution! Some are showing a mild and dry winter, with full blown La Nina patterns developing. This means cold & stormy across the Pacific northwest, and warm and dry across the south and east, possibly riding right up the coast as far north as Boston.

Others portray a different story, showing the complete opposite conditions developing. These models show brutal cold weather heading south into the middle of the country, then spreading east into New England. Such a scenerio would turn this winter very cold, possibly with a lot of snow.

For this type of scenerio to unfold, we are going to need blocking in the weather patterns to our north. This means the Greenland block will need to develop, to help defelct cold air down into New England. This is especially true because it now apprears as if the + PDO (above normal ocean temperatures in north Pacific), is not going to be a major player this winter.

Back in the epic winter of 2014-15, the warmer than normal water in the Gulf of Alaska clearly played an important role in building a huge blocking ridge of high pressure (warm & dry), in western Canada.

In return, cold air was able to dive down with a huge trough of low pressure (cold & stormy) from Greenland straight down into New England. This not only led to record snowfall, but also one of the coldest periods of cold weather in Boston history.

Should the Greenland block develop, I can see New England having several periods of harsh winter weather this year. However, should no block develop, a year without a winter could also be the end result.

I certainly can see how both scenerios could work out. Just about anything is on the table for us this winter. This could range from a lackluster snowfall year of less than 30″ to possibly one that features well above snow of greater than 60.” Temperatures should range from frigid cold at times, to unseasonably mild.

Because of all of the variance, I took the blend of both these extremes, coming up with the best educated guess that I could come up with. It really is like throwing a dart with a blind fold on!

With such potential of clashing of the air masses, I still see the chance of a blockbuster storm hitting much of New England. This is especially true if a Greenland block develops.

For those looking for snow around the holidays, it looks quite promising! I love winter and snow, but I especially love snow around Christmas time, especially the time leading up to the holiday.

Unfortunately, it typically doesn’t snow much in the boston area before Christmas. This always leaves you hoping and looking for snow to show up on the weather charts early!

However, as is usually the case, snow doeasn’t start flying in Boston until after the Winter Solstice. And in many cases, our worst winters are ones that begin after the solstice arrives.

You may ask, for what reason? Well, for one, Mother Nature is precise in her timing. But another reason, is due to the modifying effects the Atlantic Ocean has on our climate.

It’s a double edged sword, for sure. The ocean keeps it too warm for snow early in the winter along the coast. This results is sloppy storms of snow changing to rain, or just plain rain.

However, later in the season, as the ocean cools off, storms along the coast can produce prolific snowfall amounts. This is because storms tap extra moisture form the ocean, and when mixed with cold air, heavy snowfalls are typically the outcome.

A classic expample of this was just two years ago in 2014-15. Ocean temperatures were so warm early on in the season, hardly any snow fell.

However, as the ocean cooled later in January, a baroclinic zone developed just off our coast (difference in temperature). As the pattern locked in, Boston was bombarded with 4 consecutive blizzards, bringing the region to a standstill.

For this year, it looks too warm for any snow in Boston through the 10th. However, things could get interesting after that! This could continue leading up to the holiday.

Typically, Boston averages about 8″ of snow in December, with more falling across inland locations. We have received as much as 24″ before, and as little as a trace.”

I am expecting this December to feature some snow! I believe we could be looking at about 6 to 10″ of snow in Boston, which is about average. More will fall to the north and west.

Temperatures will be up and down, finishing up near average. Basically, I’m expecting a fairly average December on the way. I know I said there could be a big snowstorm in December, last week. It’s still possible. We shall see!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. The rest of today will feature sunny weather, with temperatures around 45. Late high clouds will offer the chance of a colorfull sunset.

Tonight will see mainly clear skies early, with temperatures dropping into the 20’s and low 30’s.

For the period Tuesday through Thursday, expect periods of rain, drizzle, and foggy conditions. We may get a break early, Wednesday, but more rain will develop later in the day and at night. Temeratures will become mild, with highs in the lower 50’s tomorrow, near 50 on Wednesday, and low to mid 50’s on Thursday!

Thursday also happens to be December 1st, also the first day of meteorological winter! Most of the region gets rain, however, it may be just cold enough for some wet snow in the northern most mountains, and northern Maine. Most ski resorts receive rain. Not the news they want to hear after a optimistic Thanksgiving holiday. Sorry about that!

After this storm moves through, look for blustery and colder weather to move back into the region for Friday through Sunday, with highs in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. Other than a few rain or snow showers, it looks to remain mainly dry.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the latest weather pattterns, and giving a new update for my December outlook. I will also have a special weather history segment.

In addition, I will have a new ski and snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, have the rain gear ready for this week, and keep the winter gear on standby!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter 2016-17: Skiers Delight! 11/21/16

Hello! The long awaited pattern change has finally arrived! Saturday was a beautiful November day. Though a bit cool along the coast, inland locations managed to warm up to near 60. Sunday was a different story!

A strong storm developed over New England. This swung a cold front through the region during the day. Sunday was in stark contrast to Saturday!

It was a classic November day across eastern Massachusetts. After early rain, dark clouds raced across the region, and winds picked up. The sky certainly had a more wintery look to it as the day progressed.

As the storm intensified over northern New England, moisture wrapped around the backside of the storm, resulting in quite a winter storm for upstate N.Y. and western New England. Even the northwest hills of Connecticut received quite a surprise snowfall!

As the colder air passed over the warm Great lakes, it picked up moisture and deposited heavy snow squalls in upstate N.Y. With the storm being close by, snow also streamed into the Berkshires of western Massachusetts, and the Green Mountains of Vermont…in some cases accumulating between 1 and 2 ft!

In cases like this, higher elevations do best. Not only because it’s colder, but also from a weather phenominon called orographic lift.

This is when the winds blow up the mountain, cools and condenses, and drops the moisture as snow! On the leeward side of the mountain, air particles dry and warm, resulting in dark stratocumulus clouds racing across the sky, with very little moisture left over.

Nonetheless, this system was so dynamic, many of us, including us here in Boston, actually received our first dusting of snow overnight last night!

It’s also important to note, that Logan Airport also finally recorded their first freeze last night. This is some two weeks later than average. While this may not be important ifor many, it plays a role in determining how severe our winter will be.

Studies show, the later the freeze occurs, the less severe the winter will be. This year is very deceiving. While it may look like it’s very late, nearly 95% of the region has already fallen to freezing this fall.

The numbers are skewed at Logan Airport because the observation is surrounded by the warm Atlantic Ocean. Nevertheless, it was later than the average, and winter forecast numbers will need to be adjusted accordingly.

In addition to when the first freeze occurs, I also follow November average temperaturtes for Boston very carefully. Studies have also shown, the closer the average temperature is to average during November, the heavier the snowfall is during the winter. There is nothing scientific about this. Just Mother Nature’s way to give a little clue as to what to expect.

So how are the temperatures so far for this November? Very, tricky! While the middle of the country has seen one of the warmest November’s on record, the story has not been the same here in New England…especially eastern New England. While it hasn’t been cold, it’s been much cooler than in the middle of the country, and also much cooler than last year.

However, up until Saturday, temperatures were still running nearly 2 and a half degrees above average in Boston. Now that the pattern has changed to a colder, wintery look to it, I believe the final temperature average for November is going to be 0 to + 1 degree in Boston, when we finish the month. It’s going to be a nail biter! Temperatures look to average below normal for the next week or so, but a sudden spike at months end may change the final numbers!

In case you’re curious, what was the average temperature for November back in 2014? That November averaged 2 degrees below normal. While it took a while for winter to arrive in 2015, the records broken for that winter were unprecedented!

But studying the temperatures is not all there is! I have devised a formula to look for 17 different clues from Mother Nature to help me determine my winter forecast for the region.

In addition, I also rely on many other scientific observations to help me determine the forecast. For instance, I talk a lot about El Nino, La Nina, and the roles ocean temperatures play in our weather.

While a record El Nino (warm ocean temps. off South America) was the dominant player last winter, this year, its polar opposite cousin has taken over.

Ocean temperatures have reversed to colder than normal, resulting in La Nina conditions. So far, this La Nina is being classified as a weak event, even bordeline neutral conditions.

Typically, La Nina brings mild and dry winters to much of the east coast, especially from Washington D.C. south, but sometimes creeping up the coast all the way to Boston.

On paper, this winter should end up milder than normal, and below average snowfall. However, I believe there are other global factors at play here, that are going to result in a atypical La Nina winter for us here in New England.

The reasons? Well for one, it’s colder. Not colder than normal, but certainly colder than last year. New England ski resorts have already received a couple significant snowfalls, and many are planning to open up for Thanksgiving this year!

Number two, ocean temperatures. Yes, there’s La Nina, but there’s also a positive PDO still happening. Should this warm water off the coast of British Columbia coninue to be warmer than normal, this will help bring colder weather further south into New England this winter.

Third. High latitude blocking. After being absent the past several years, it appears as if the Greenland block is going to be a factor in the upcoming winter. This means pressures build in Greenland, forcing cold air south into the eastern part of the country, resulting in colder and stormy weather for much of eastern New England.

So putting all of this together, what can we expect for our upcoming winter this year in New England? Well, I’m expecting a very exciting, changeable, challenging winter this year!

Rather than having one dominant driver as we have had in years past. I believe there is going to be several major players at work here this winter.

This means not one pattern is going to get locked in for any great length of time. From what I’m seeing right now, I’m not expecting a record epic winter like we experienced two years ago.

The patterns are not set up this fall to deliver such a snow blitz. However, I’m also not expecting a warm winter like we had last year.

Right now, I’m going to go with a average winter for us here in Boston (if there’s such a thing)! On average, Logan Airport receives about 44″ of snow each winter. I am expecting between 40 and 50″ of snow this winter here in Boston. Remember, it’s the extremes that makes the averages, so how we get here could be an adventure!

I have to believe that both factors are going to play a role in our weather this winter. Meaning, La Nina will have its way with mild and dry conditions at times, followed by periods of fairly harsh winter conditions with cold and snow.

Because this will be a more average winter in New England, I’m expecting the higher snow totals to be north and west of Boston this year.

This means you can expect between 50 and 60″ of snow between Rt 128 and I495 this winter. Further north and west from there, I am expecting between 60 and 70″ of snow in the Portsmouth N.H. region, through Nashua and Manchester region, then heading south down to Worcester, Ma.

Further north from there, it will be mostly white gold! In this region you can expect between 80 and 100″ of snow to fall this winter, with plenty of snow falling in the ski resorts this winter!

With patterns like this, I’m expecting a much better ski season for many of the resorts this winter in northern and western New England! It’s already been better, and it’s not even Thanksgiving yet!

Because storms will be warmer than previous years, Cape Cod may not get as much snow…lets call it 20 to 30″ for now.

Is there a possibility of a blockbuster storm this winter? I believe anything with an accumulation of 18″ or greater is a blockbuster storm.

I have to believe with the presence of the Greenland block this winter, we do stand the chance of a big nor’easter this winter. I believe we have a better than 50% chance of a big one! If we get one or two of these type of storms, it may increase snow totals across the Boston area significantly.

From what I am seeing today, December could actually end up being our big snow month of the winter this year! Computer models have been forecasting several large storms coming this December. If cold air can mix with the storms, heavy snowfall could be the result. Anyone dreaming of a White Christmas?

On the flip side, if La Nina suddenly strengthens, it could increase the southeast ridge (warm & dry), which prohibits nor’easters from developing. Should this happen, lower snow amounts can be expected…especially in Boston. This is a low chance, but because La Nina is present, has to be mentioned.

As always, long range seasonal forecasting is a gamble. There are always going to be surprises, and things may not work out as I planned!

With that being said, this is my best educated guess as to what I believe will happen this winter. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to ask me on my Facebook timeline, or on Twitter! I welcome the comments!

Now for your all important Thanksgiving week forecast! I am rating this week a 6 out of 10. Expect blustery and cold weather for the rest of today. Other than a passing flurry, it will remain on the dry side, with highs only near 40!

Tonight will continue to be breezy and cold, with lows in the 20’s and low 30’s. Though Tuesday will be less windy, it will still be on the cold side. With a mix of sun and clouds, highs will mainly be in the lower 40’s.

Expect fair weather to continue Tuesday night and into Wednesday. With light winds, and ample sun, Wednesday should be the best day of the week. Expect dry conditions for Wednesday night for any traveling plans. Temperatures will be chilly, but not frigid by any means.

Now for Thanksgiving Day itself. This gets a little tricky! A cold front will be slipping through New England lat Wednseday night. This will introduce slightly colder weather.

In addition, a weak storm will be sliding just south of New England. There may be enough moisture for some light snow and flurries to fall across much of Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire during the day.

Boundary layers will be very tricky, so even some freezing rain can not be ruled out. This doesn’t look like a big storm, but just enough to give travelers something to be concerned about. Many times it’s the small storms that result in the biggest accidents!

Milder air will move in later in the day to change any frozen precipitation to plain rain as you head home on Thanksgiving night.

Black Friday should be a bit milder, but with cloudy skies and a chance of a few showers or drizzle. Another cold front slips through our area Friday night. A coastal storm will be developing close to our coast on Saturday.

This storm may stall in the Gulf of Maine, and produce a variety of weather across the region. In Maine, a post Thanksgiving snowstorm could be on the table. This snow could extend down into coastal New Hampshire, though not as heavy.

Periods of snow and rain could also fall into eastern Massachusetts both Saturday and Sunday, along with increasing winds.

Right now, I am not expecting a big storm around Boston, but if things change, I will update everyone! Stormy weather may continue next week as we head towards the start of December.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the month of November, as well as my forecast for what December may bring this year. I will also have my first ski and snow boarding forecast, as we welcome December!

In the meantime, think of this winter like your Thanksgiving dinner, a little variety for everyone!

~Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!~

Thanks for reading,

Pete

King Tides…Major Pattern Change! 11/14/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a great, weekend! As has been the case for basically a year now, the weather was on the pleasant side. Saturday dawned cold, but then recovered to respectable levels in the afternoon. Sunday was milder, with abundant sunshine.

Due to time constraints, this is going to be an abbreviated post today. Some may say, thank goodness! This guy talks too much! And it’s true. Whenever I say this, it usually ends up being the same length anyway!

Wow, was that moon spectacular last evening!  I went up to my favorite spot, Millennium Park in West Roxbury, and viewed the sun setting in the west, and the full “Beaver” moon rising in the east, what a sight!

Technically speaking, it wasn’t 100% full last night. The moon officially was full this morning. Because of the timing of the full moon, we will have the chance to view the moon at near 100% full again, this evening!

As stated last week, this is the closest the moon has been to the earth since 1948. And it won’t be this close again until 2034. Because the full moon is also falling on perigee (the closest the moon is to the earth), the moon not only looks bigger, but it’s also brighter too!

I was so happy the weather was so clear last evening, so everyone could enjoy the celestial show! I enjoyed viewing all the pistures many folks took, both professional and amateur!

Due to an impending storm tomorrow, high clouds may blot out the moon rise this evening. However, I don’t believe they will be thick enough to completely obscure the view. The high clouds may actually make for some interesting colors, reflecting off the light of the moon.

So far, the weather this November has been nothing short of spectacular! Sure, there’s been some chilly nights, but overall, we’ve been very lucky.

A brief cold snap sent temperatures tumbling into the 20’s in most spots last Friday night. Everywhere, except at Boston’s official observation site at Logan Airport, which only dropped to 34 degrees.

So officially, Logan still has not recorded an official freeze. This is not too unusual, as it normally is the last one to record a freeze in the region. Even cities and towns at lower latitudes have record freezes before Logan this fall.

This is partially due because the observation site is surrounded by water at the airport, which greatly modifies the climate. We have passed the normal date of first freeze in Boston, which is typically around November 7th.

Along with below normal precipitation, temperatures have also been quite pleasant for November standards. Though not as warm as last year, Boston is still running a good 2 degrees above average for the month, so far. This has resulted in a extended fall foliage season around here. Driving around the neighborhood this morning, I still see some vivid colors coming from red maple trees!

So is this tranquil November weather going to continue for the rest of the month? Well, as they say, all good things must come to an end! As I have been discussing for quite some time now, I do believe a major shift to the pattern is about to unfold around here. This is something I have been monitoring for quite some time now.

Last week, I talked about the patterns being in a chaotic state. Mother Nature was sending mixed signals whether she was going to send winter this year, or not.

Today, I am more confident that winter is coming. In fact, I am thinking that it’s coming in quicker this year, than in previous years.

I’m not 100% sure of the severity just yet. I will be studying all my sources over the course of this week, then have my final call in my official winter forecast, published just a week from today!

For weeks now, the atmosphere has been preparing the winter pattern. Brutal cold air in Siberia has been bleeding into European countries, resulting in early season blizzards and cold waves.

So far, the cold has been on that side of the world, leaving us with unseasonably warm and dry weather. This would normally result in a warm winter for North America. But it’s only mid November, and changes are beginning to brew.

I talk quite a bit about the the Greenland Block, or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This is when high pressure builds over the Greenland and the Arctic regions. When this occurs, cold air is forced down into the lower latitudes where we live, resulting in colder temperatures, and stormy weather.

Beginning this Sunday, pressures are going to begin to build over Greenland. This is going to force the jet stream south next week. This is not only going to make us colder, but also introduce the chance of wintery precipitation around Thanksgiving time.

Long range computer model data this morning show a storm developing in the middle of the country early next week. It then forecasts this storm to take a complex track towards New England.

Because of the developing Greenland block, this storm may  move towards New York state, but eventually be forced to redevelop south of New England, then develop into a nor’easter passing east of New England.

This would result in a snowstorm for interior New England around Thanksgiving time. Such a track would bring rain to coastal areas, with perhaps a change to snow before the storm ends.

Time frame for this potential storm is next Thursday into Friday. Of course this is just an early bird long range outlook. Many things can change until then.

However, the upcoming pattern does support such a scenerio, so discussion of such possibilities is warranted…especially being such a important travel week.

Before then, we have some problems to deal with as early as tomorrow. If you are planning on being near or traveling close to the ocean tomorrow, expect delays and dangerous conditions!

Because of the proximity of the moon to the earth, we will be experiencing a phenominon called “king tides” tomorrow, and then again on Wednesday.

Thank goodness we don’t have a major storm coming! With that being said, a small nor’easter system will be tracking up the coast at the worst possible time! Tides will be running a good 2 ft above normal, anyway.

This is enough to flood beach roads, low lying areas, and possibly some homes along the coast. Even docks and piers in downtown Boston will experience coastal flooding.

Last month, Boston experienced sea water overflowing onto piers and docks in town…and that was without a storm. Tomorrow, onshore east to northeast winds will exasperate the situation, possibly resulting in some major inconveniences along the coast. Please be prepared to listen to local authorities in case action is required.

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10.  Expect a beautiful November day, with deep blue skies, light winds, and temperatures warming to the lower 60’s! Definitely a touch of Indian Summer!

Watch for high clouds late in the day, a sign of a storm. Look for the full “Beaver” moon rising in the east this evening. Hopefully, the clouds will not obscure the view! Otherwise, expect increasing clouds tonight. With winds shifting onshore, it will turn cooler and damp.

Tuesday will feature rain developing from south to north. If it’s not raining first thing in the morning, it will be shortly. This is much needed rain, as Boston still has a rainfall deficit of greater than 10″ for the year.

East to northeast winds along the coast, along with the higher than normal tides, will result in minor to moderate coastal flooding tomorrow, please be aware and use caution!

Tuesday night will feature areas of showers and drizzle, lows will mainly be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s. Wednesday may start off on the damp side, but expect drier weather to move in during the day, along with a gusty wind. It will be on the cool side, but certainly not cold. High temperatures will mainly be in the 50’s.

Wednesday night will be dry, with lows mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s.

Expect milder weather for the period Thursday through Saturday. Each day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures between 58 and 65 degrees!

A cold front swinging through New England on Sunday will bring a chance of showers moving into the region. It will begin to start cooling off, with highs mainly in the lower 50’s. It will turn even colder at the beginning of next week, possibly even with the chance of some snow showers!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be publishing my official 2016-17 winter forecast! I will also have your very important Thanksgiving week travel forecast! In the meantime, enjoy the mild weather this week; suddenly, it will be winter!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

P.S. This is my idea of a shorter post!

Winter Thoughts…11/7/16

Hello! It was another fairly typical weekend around here, weatherwise. Saturday featured a mix of sun and clouds, with temperatures just about seasonal. Sunday was a classic November day, with chilly winds, dark clouds, and some light passing showers.

With the sun setting so early, it seemed as if folks just hunkered down as the reality of another long, cold New England winter begins to settle in.

But is it going to be another long, cold New England winter? Well, this of course is subject to interpretion, and is all relative. No matter what kind of a winter we get, most agree it’s on the long side, and would rather not go through it at all.

But it’s Mother Nature, and you can’t stop the seasons from changing. If you really don’t like winter, you have options. If you want shorter, less severe winters, you may want to consider the Mid-Atlantic region.

Still too cold? Head south to the Carolina’s, where very little snow falls, if at all, and temperatures are much warmer.

Then of course there’s always Florida, where many folks from New England enjoy wintering, to escape the snow and cold.

However, for every person that doesn’t like the winter, there are plenty of folks, including myself, who very much enjoy the rigors of a New England winter.

I for one deeply enjoy winter. I know I’m in the minority, but it must be the weatherman in me! With that being said, I truly also enjoy the other three seasons too…just that winter is my favorite! In short, I love the climate of New England…and would be saddened if I would ever have to leave!

Wow, time is certainly flying! My official winter forecast will be published just two weeks from today! I have been carefully monitoring the weather patterns, reading technical discussions, and observing clues from Mother Nature this fall.

So what have I come up with so far? Well…more studying needs to be done! Mother Nature is certainly holding her cards close to her vest. From what I can see so far, it doesn’t look like anything too severe to me at this point.

Right now, I’m leaning towards close to average snowfall. This means approximately 40 to 50″ of snow around the Boston area. This is just a very a preliminary call! These numbers can easily go up or down until my official forecast comes out two weeks from today!

Since the “snow blitz” of February 2015, the weather has been on the tranquil side. In fact, for weather buffs like me, it has been one of the most boring stretches of weather that I can ever recall. The most exciting to follow right now is the ongoing severe drought in our region. And that’s like watching paint dry on a wall.

After a much wetter than normal October, it appears as if we’ve fallen back into old habits once again. And this is unusual, as November is typically our wettest and cloudiest month of the year.

This has been the trend over the past several years. The exception was November, 2014, when the month ended nearly 2 degrees below average, along with 2.6″ of snow accumulation. This is  higher than normal snow in Boston for November. We typically average about an inch and a half.

Was this an omen for things to come that winter? Without a doubt, in my book. It’s a proven statistic that when temperatures average below average in November, along with above average snowfall, chances are quite high we’re going to bombarded with heavy snow for the upcoming winter!

So far, this year, the atmosphere appears to be in a state of confusion. The trend of below average precipitation has resumed here in November. Temperatures, at least for here in Boston are a bit trickier. For the first week of the month, it has actually averaged very close to normal around here.

This has not been the case in other parts of the country, where temperatures have been outrageously warm! This reminds me quite a bit like last November. The difference this year? It appears the ridge of high pressure (warm and dry), is displaced further west this year, compared to last year.

With the ridge in this position, this allows troughs (cold & stormy) to dive down the eastern flank of this ridge into New England. Storms are developing too far offshore, but has kept our temperatures in check so far this month.

Computer models have been hinting of a major pattern change beginning mid month, to cold and perhaps stormy weather, for the eastern part of the United States. For this to occur, many things are going to need to happen first.

So far, computer model runs are flip flopping on this idea. In addition, world wide teleconnections are not cooperating for a true colder pattern.

To be fair, Boston typically does not see “brutal” cold in most years during November. This is not to say it doesn’t turn cold. It does, but because of the modifying effects of the Atlantic Ocean, the real cold normally waits until after Christmas most years.

For one, most of the severe cold, or sources where cold can come from, are on the other side of the world, in Russia and Siberia. Could it be that the worst of this winter is going to remain on that side of the globe?

To be honest, there really isn’t any overpowering signal showing a cold or warm winter is on the way this year. Right now, there appears to be a ongoing power struggle, as to whether real winter will come this year, or not.

I mentioned in earlier posts, that we currently have a weak La Nina going on (cold water in the southern Pacific Ocean). This is normally a mild and dry signal for eastern Massachusetts. However, a warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska called the Positive PDO is a signal for cold and stormy weather. So the teleconnections are contradicting each other.

I’m getting the feeling that this may be the way the winter will go this year. Rather than having one dominant driver this winter as in years past, each teleconnection will have a say in the matter, with variable, and quite changeable weather, along with rapid changes from month to month.

I do believe winter is coming this year, but to what degree, is still open for jury. I will elaborate much more on all these ideas in my official winter forecast two weeks from today. So please, make sure to check back with me then!

Today is the final fall foliage report! Overall, the season was quite variable around Boston. No doubt, folks up north were treated to one of the best foliage seasons in years! Even here in Boston, I was very pleased while taking many pictures around my neighborhood in West Roxbury.

It seems as if the right conditions came together at the very last second to produce some spectacular vivid red colors even here in Boston. Now, the color wave has passed through our area, and continues to head south along the coast.

Keep in mind, splashes of beautiful color can linger along the coast even into mid November, so keep an eye out for that!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 outof 10. Expect beautiful weather to continue for the rest of this afternoon. Look for plenty of sun, and deep blue skies. It will be cool with highs near 50. Tonight will be another cold one, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s regionwide. Warmest in the urban centers.

After a chilly start, expect mild and dry weather for election day, with highs warming up into the low 60’s. Fair weather will continue tomorrow night, with lows mainly in the 30’s and lower 40’s.

Wednseday will be a changeable day. Expect clouds to race in, and a period of showers to move through the region. This will not be a washout. It will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the mid 50’s. Expect dry weather Wednesday night, with lows back down into the 20’s and 30’s.

Thursday will feature chilly temperatures, with a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures should hold in the upper 40’s to near 50.

Another cold front will be charging out of Canada towards New England on Friday. Temperatures will rebound a bit during the day, with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 50’s.

Expect cold air to start pouring into the region Friday night. In fact, this will be our first taste of winterlike temperatures. Right now, it looks mainly dry Friday night, with nothing more than a few showers or flurries.

Saturday will feel more like December than November! Expect cold weather, with highs only in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. A week disturbance will be moving through our area, which may actually trigger off some snow showers!

If this happens, it’s just about the average time Boston typically sees their first snowflakes of the season.

Temperatures Saturday night will also plummet into the teens and 20’s across the region. This will most likely be Boston’s first time falling to 32 degrees or lower this season.

This too, is very close to the longterm average.  Sunday should feature more sun, and slightly warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 40’s.

A week from today, I will also have information of a very exciting celestial even occurring next Monday night. Get ready for the Super Moon!

This moon is going to be as close to earth than it has been in over 60 years! If you live along the coast, also prepare for another round of King Tides!

We are very fortunate a major storm is not forecasted to hit this weekend, as that would be devastating. Just be prepared for some splashover, and water much higher than typical tides.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing about the status of the regions severe drought. I will also have a special outlook as to what kind of weather we can expect for Thanksgiving week! In the meantime, enjoy the mild day tomorrow, then start thinking winter!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Coats Over The Costumes! 10/31/16

Happy Halloween, everyone! Where’s the time going? I would say it was a very November like weekend, no? Saturday turned out mostly cloudy, with a chill to the air. Sunday was milder, but clouds dominated, and a period of rain moved in during the afternoon.

When I was a kid, Halloween was one of my favorite holidays! Not only was it time for trick or treating, but it also meant winter was right around the corner!

Halloween can bring many different kinds of weather to New England. It falls almost at the midpoint of the Autumnal Equinox and Winter Solstice. Beacuse of this, the weather can be just about anything on this day.

Back in 2011, Halloween was cancelled across much of the region, as a freak nor’easter brough between 15 and 30″ of snow aross the interior of New England! That happened to be the biggest storm of the entire winter that year!

Other years, warm winds send trick or treaters ditching the overcoats to display their costumes! A few years back, I remember a string of Halloween’s that featured very warm temperatures.

However, this is the exception and not the rule. Typically, kids in New England have to bundle up! The running joke around here is that the poor kids have to put a winter coat on over their costumes, blunting the excitement of the evening.

This year will be no exception! While the daytime will feature mainly sunny skies, with highs near 50, things will turn eerily cold once the sun goes down. Check out all the details in my forecast at the end of my post!

As we close out another month, it’s time to look back on what the weather was like in October, and look forward as to what we might expect for November.

Looking back, October certainly was an active month! We finally broke through the drought, with Boston receiving its wettest month since December of 2014!

In fact, nearly 5 and a half inches of rainfall fell this month! This is more rain than what fell in the entire summer in Boston! While not erraticating the drought, it certainly helped with water tables, and soil levels. Along with the rain, Boston experienced several days with dense fog this October.

To place things in perspective, Boston is still around 9″ below average for the year. If you add the deficit over the past two years, we’re still nearly 20″ below normal levels.

What was interesting, was that we also saw our fair share of pleasant weather during October. I don’t have the final statistics, but I believe October averaged a degree or two above average.

We also had our share of chilly nights.  Many communities received frost on several occasions. However, Logan Airport officially has not reached 32 degrees as of yet.

On average, Logan receives its first freeze around November 7th. This is some 2 to 3 weeks later than the interior of New England. This is because Logan is surrounded by the ocean, which modifies the climate in the early fall.

No snow was reported in Boston this October. However, Berkshire towns and the mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire have received several snowfalls, already!

What about November? November is a true transition month, as we move from autumn to winter. On average, November is our cloudiest and wettest month of the year. Interesting to note, the past several November’s have been anything but this!

Yes, we can officially begin talking about snow! While Logan Airport only averages about 1″ of snow in November, much more can fall across the interior and up in the mountains.

Here in Boston, you can expect a decent snowfall in November (4″ or more), about once every 5 or 6 years. More often than not, you will see your first flakes in November, and perhaps even an accumulation.

As mentioned above, it typically rains a lot, about 4″ worth on average, and is normally cloudy about 50% of the time. Temperatures start out averaging in the low 50’s, and finish about 10 degrees colder, in lower 40’s. Average low temperatures begin in the lower 40’s and finish in lower 30’s.

One other note, Boston’s lawn mowing season ends today, October 31st. It runs in 6 months cycle on average, starting up again on May 1st.

So what can we expect this November? Well, I can assure you, it’s going to be different from last year! If you recall, we experienced one of our warmest November’s on record last year!

With the record breaking El Nino gaining strength as we moved closer to winter, temperatures were very warm. This year, we have a weak La Nina.

In addition, we have persistant North Atlantic blocking patterns. While we may experience brief warm spikes in temperatures, I’m expecting a colder and stormier month to unfold this year.

A stronger, and energetic Polar jet stream is going to mean the potential for a early season snowstorm this month! I am keeping an eye out for the period of November 14th through the 24th for this potential.

While temperatures will be going up and down like a roller coaster, I’m expecting this month to average near or slightly below average come months end.

Will the this November be a sign of things to come this winter? I believe it will! I will be monitoring the weather patterns very carefully in November, to help give me clues as to what the winter may bring.

Right now, it looks as if a classic battle of warm & cold. Typically, La Nina patterns consist of very cold temperatures and stormy weather across the northwest, and very warm and dry across the southeast.

This year, it appears as if a another lobe of cold air is going to build across northern New England. It appears as if the boundary of cold and warm is going to set up somewhere across New England. Where this deliniation sets up across New England is key as to where the heaviest snows are going to fall.

Right now, I’m fairly confident northern New England, including ski resorts are going to receive well above average amounts of snow this winter. Should this boundary set up just south of New England, the Boston area could be included in this zone.

La Nina years can go either way in New England. Some years are warm and dry, while other years can be cold and stormy. It appears other global factors can come into play to alter typical La Nina patterns.

To me, it appears that this year may be one of those years. I believe ocean temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic will be conducive to blocking patterns, surpressing the jet stream further to the south than in typical La Nina years.

If this happens, a parade of storms will develop to our southwest, moving northeast, and pass through New England, or just south of us. If it’s cold enough, snowfall could be excessive across the region.

My offical winter forecast will be published just 3 weeks from today! So please stay tuned!

Now for the fall foliage report. Other than some scattered color, the fall foliage extravaganza is over for much of New England north and west of I495. Peak colors are now spreading inside of I95 including the greater Boston area.

With chilly nights, and sunny days, colors should brighten up along coastal Massachusetts this week. Look for red maples to add a splash of vivid color to the landscape later this week!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect sunny skies amidst some puffy fair weather cumulus clouds. It will be brisk and cool, with highs near 50.

For trick or treat time, expect temperatures to fall through the 40’s early on, and even the upper 30’s a bit later on in the evening. Later tonight, temperatures will cool further into the upper 20’s inland, and mid to upper 30’s along the coast.

After a chilly start Tuesday, watch for sunshine mixed with clouds, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 50’s. It should remain dry and a bit milder tomorrow night, with lows mainly in the 30’s and lower 40’s.

Wednesday will feature milder temperatures, along with considerable clouds and some sun, highs will be in the mid to upper 60’s. It should remain dry and mild Wednesday night, with lows mainly in the 40’s to near 50.

Thursday could be warmer yet! High temperatures could make a run towards 70 degrees! Perhaps a taste of Indian Summer?

Expect changeable weather on Friday. A storm system diving down from eastern Canada will begin to mark a change in our weather. After a period of rain Thursday night into early Friday, the rest of Friday should feature cooler weather and blustery winds.

This theme will continue into the weekend, with colder weather for both Saturday and Sunday. A storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere will create considerable clouds and blustery winds.

There is a chance of some scattered showers both days. In fact, it may turn cold enough for a chance of some snow flurries or even snow showers later Sunday!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be concentrating on my winter forecast. I will also be on the lookout for our first snowfall. In the meantime, enjoy the mild weather later this week, winter may arrive early this year!

As always, thanks for reading!

Pete