October chill…10/24/16

Hello! October in New England can be a very changeable month, and this past weekend lived up to that reputation! Humidity levels were borderline obscene for this time of year at the end of last week.

The weekend started off with torrential downpours Friday night, leading to flash flooding in many communities. Showers lingered on Saturday, fowling up many outdoor activities.

The storm, our largest since last spring, certainly brought drought relief to many communities. Worcester, Ma. cut its drought deficit in half, receiving over 5 inches of rain in just a couple hours! Many other areas to the north and west of Boston received between 2 and 5″ of rain, in just a short period of time.

Later Saturday, a strong wind blew out all the muggy weather and rain. Temperatures turned sharply colder, sending folks scrambling for sweaters and jackets!

In fact, it became so cold, that the rain turned to snow in higher elevations of Vermont, and even western Massachusetts! The picture attached to the blog today, is a beautiful sight sometimes seen in New England during the fall. There’s nothing more breath taking than peak fall foliage, with snow capped mountains in the background!

Some friends asked me if the drought is over. Well, that depends where you live. I would say in all areas, the drought is still not over.

While some areas received over 5″ of rain, some areas, like Boston only received an inch and a half. We would need 10 of these storms to declare the drought over. However, this is still very beneficial rains!

And in fact, that measurement was taken right at Logan Airport. Many surrounding communities received close to 2″ of rain. The axis of heaviest rain fell from Worcester, up through southern New Hampshire, then up the coast to Portland, Maine. Yes, in these areas, the drought was cut in half in some instances.

With all that being said, there’s no denying that the pattern has slowly evolved into a much more conducive one, in providing episodes of rainy weather for us. This is in stark contrast to the arid summer we just experienced.

Many locations have received between 4 and 6″ of rain, on average, so far this fall. This is also evolving quite nicely as to where I believe we are headed for this upcoming winter.

Speaking of winter…my official winter forecast will be out less than a month from today! There is still much to observe, and study, but I must say, this upcoming winter is looking to be quite an interesting one!

If you follow precipitation patterns, this fall is proving to be more wet than last fall. If this trend were to continue, which I believe it will, as temperature cool, we will begin to see more wintery events unfolding.

I’m already seeing differences this year, compared to last. Remember, last year, a historic warm El Nino was strengthening as we headed towards winter. Temperatures were warming the deeper we went into fall.

This year, many places have already had their killing frost, and some places have even had accumulating snow up north!

This year, El Nino has faded, and a weak La Nina has replaced it. I believe the winter hinges on just how strong, or how weak this La Nina becomes.

Computer models are currently at odds as to what they believe will evolve this winter. The European seasonal outlook model believes that this will remain a very weak La Nina, or possibly even trend towards neutral, or even turn into a weak El Nino!

If this holds true, a much colder and snowier winter is likely for much of New England…especially up north and ski country.

However, other computer models are indicating a weak to perhaps even borderline moderate La Nina. If this is the case, a much different winter would be the result. I believe winter would still come, just not as harsh.

The reason being is that a stronger La Nina strengthens a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) over southeast U.S. When this happens, it prohibits nor’easter development, and in many cases, we experience warm and dry winters.

Even if this were to happen, there still is the positive PDO to contend with. This is the abnormally warm ocean temperatures currently in the Gulf of Alaska, and off the British Columbia coast.

Earlier forecast showed this warm “blob” was going to weaken, and be replaced with cold water. Now, computer models are maintaining this warm water, or even increasing it!

Should this be the case, a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry), would build into western Canada. This would send frigid air, along with the increase likelyhood of strong nor’easter development near the New England coast this winter.

If the positive PDO were to flip and go negative, (cold water), then a warm and dry winter in New England would be more likely.

Right now, I do not see any evidence of this occurring. As you can see, the Pacific Ocean is the driving force behind our weather here in New England! Needless to say, a weak La Nina with a positive PDO makes for a very interesting winter shaping up.

There are many other global factors and local observations that I will need to closely monitor over the next month. But, as I mentioned earlier, you will want to check out the winter forecast coming up on November 21st, it’s looking very exciting!

With the unseasonably warm weather and torrential rains, the areas fall foliage took a beating. I noticed many leaves stripped from the trees, and colors which were muted. While other trees remaining green.

Overall, it doesn’t look like the best fall foliage year for us here in Boston this year. Unusual weather around here is making for a very erratic, lackluster show. I am only speaking about the the local Boston area, which is not indicative of other areas of New England.

This has not been the case out in western Massachusetts and up in the north country! Here, weather conditions have been just about perfect, which brought out one of the most vivid displays of fall foliage in recent memory!

Folks in the Boston area, it’s not completely over! Very chilly nights this week, along with sunny days, may brighten up trees at the last second heading towards Halloween.

Peak conditions are only now heading into Boston, so we shall see! There’s always some dependable trees that deliver every year, so look out for those!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. For the rest of today, look for a mixture of sun and clouds. It will be cool, but actually just about normal, with highs near 60.

Look for clearing skies tonight along with a gusty wind developing. It will turn quite chilly, with lows in the 30’s and very low 40’s. Tuesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, along with a cold and gusty wind.

It will actually feel and look more like November. Expect highs to struggle to get out of the 40’s. Some locations may briefly reach the very low 50’s.

Tuesday night will be cold! Expect temperatures to drop into the 20’s and 30’s regionwide! I don’t believe Boston will reach 32, but mid 30’s is quite possible with areas of frost.

Watch for the chilly weather to continue on Wednesday, with highs mainly in the 40’s once again. Wednesday night may be the coldest night of the fall, so far, with many locations falling into the 20’s.

Though downtown Boston may stay just above 32, it’s going to be cold just about everywhere else. Sorry folks, heat is going on!

As a fast moving storm system approaches New England Thursday, expect increasing clouds. In fact, the sky may have a wintery look to it.

If precipitation moves in quick enough, some wintery precipitation may occur well to the north and west of Boston. The mountains may actually receive more accumulating snow. Sign of things to come!

At this point, Friday looks unsetteled as well, with leftover showers, and cool temperatures.

Right now, I am calling for mainly dry weather this weekend. But once again, quick moving storms may traverse the region at any point, resulting in the chance of more showers. Very low confidence forecast, at this point. It will remain chilly, with highs in the low 50’s.

The early call for Halloween next Monday, is for dry weather with highs in the lower 50’s and lows in the 30’s. This is just about average for the date.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a review of the month of October, and also look forward as to what we can expect in November this year.

I will also let you know what type of weather New England typically experiences in November. I will also elaborate more on my upcoming winter forecast.

In the meantime, enjoy the remaining days in October. November begins next week. Grabbing a jacket or a sweater is better than the snow shovel!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Indian Summer! 10/17/16

Hello! What a spectacular fall weekend across New England! Saturday dawned crisp, with many communities recording early morning temperatures between 28 and 35 degrees!

The rest of the day was a classic fall day, with bright sunshine, and cool temperatures. Sunday was even better, with more sunshine and temperatures close to 70!

Officially, Boston’s Logan Airport did not fall to 32, but many surrounding areas, were cold enough to register their first frost. Remember, frost can still occur, even if the official temperature does not reach 32.

This was the case where I live in West Roxbury. Low tempearure was about 35 degrees, with a frost. This is because the temperature on surfaces can supercool, and freeze condensation, forming frost. Where temperatures just above the surface can still remain above 32.

Some people ask me what the difference is between a frost and a freeze. A frost is when temperatures fall to levels like we had early Saturday. This is when temperatures fall to the mid 30’s, but not to 32 degrees or lower. A freeze is when the official temperature falls to 32 degrees or lower for at least 3 consecutive hours.

On average, my area sees its first frost between October 15th and 25th. So this was a bit on the early side of that range. Other areas further inland have already received several frosts, and killing freezes.

Here in Boston, we have not received a killing freeze just yet. This happens around November 7th, on average. But as mentioned above, many communities inside of Rt 128 and along the coast had frost.

I had a interesting weekend! Mostly work, but with some relax time and interesting observations in between! Saturday night, it was my sister’s annual Friendsgiving get together up in New Hampshire!

This event is typically held in late November. Because some friends are going to be away next month, she decided to hold it on Saturday. One thing for sure, the weather certainly felt like mid November!

Although it was great seeing friends, the highlight of the night was the apple pie our friend Melissa baked! I know I’m going off the subject here, but this pie is worthy of special recognition in today’s blog!

I’m no food critic, but this apple pie would easily win first prize in a pie baking contest. In fact, my brother in law and myself rated the pie a 12 on a scale of 10. Tremendous!

Unfortunately, I had to leave early the next morning. However, while there, I was able to note some interesting observations!

First, when I arrived at the my sister’s home Saturday evening, I noted that it was a good 10 degrees colder than in Boston.

Second, the first thing I heard when I got out of my car, were all the acorns crashing down through branches in the woods. Could this be a sign of a tough winter?

Third, was the absolutely stunning full “Hunter Moon.” I hope everyone was able to enjoy the sight!

While driving home the next morning, I was very pleased to be able to enjoy the beautiful fall foliage! Right now, I would say foliage was about 50% turned at my sister’s house in coastal New Hampshire…and changing fast!

The colors were vivid, especially around swamps and ponds. As I headed to Boston, colors appeared to fade in northern Massachusetts, only to re-appear again as I drove closer to Rt 128!

All in all, color looks to be coming on strong along the I 95 corridor. Even trees around my area are really beginning to turn! While I’m writing my post today, there are two maple trees outside my window turning bright red and bright orange…beautiful!

I estimate peak colors will settle into coastal southern New England the last week of October, and first week of November…which is just about average.

Further inland and up north, the spectacular show continues! With perfect weather conditions, the colors this year have far exceeded many expectations! Without strong winds or heavy rains, the leaves are lingering on the trees, making for a very enjoyable season.

If you’re planning a drive, you will hit peak colors just a half hour drive to the west and northwest of Boston. Peak color can also be found in the Berkshires of Massachusetts, southern Vermont, and central and southern areas of New Hampshire.

After this week, the color wave will continue to head south and east, reaching eastern Massachusetts starting next week.

While driving south, I also observed the reservoir off Rt 128 in the Waltham area. Wow..is that getting low! Huge dry areas of bottom are showing up, as the severe drought is taking its toll. The last time I remember seeing this reservoir look so dry, was back in the fall of 1995.

While at my sister’s Saturday night, a few friends asked me about  what my thoughts were for the upcoming winter. I told them that it’s still a bit too early to tell for sure. If the get together was held at the traditional time in November, I would of had a much more formal forecast. However, this still did not stop me from talking about what could happen!

This time of year, I’m gathering all my data and observations to come up with the best possible forecast that is possible. Currently, global forces are aligning themselves up, that will determine whether we get off easy again this winter, or if it turns into something more serious.

I am carefully observing ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. I’m also keeping a very close eye on the Gleenland block (NAO), snow cover in Siberia and Canada, and solar activity.

Closer to home, I carefully watch average tempeartures during November, and precipitation trends. So far, results have been inconclusive. Many teleconnections are offsetting each other at this point. Meaning there’s no clear cut signal that stands out at me to give me some confidence as to what’s going to happen, either way.

What I can say from right now, it appears to be a bit cooler this fall. Although the weather the next few days will beg to differ! This week will be a good example at what I’m talking about. It will be very warm the next few days, but it’s going to turn very chilly this weekend, into the start of next week. So this warmth will be offset with next weeks chill.

The cooler weather makes sense, since there’s no strong El Nino this fall. The next question is going to be just how strong the La Nina (cold water in southern Pacific ocean) becomes. If it remains weak, and the warm water continues in the Gulf of Alask, a very active winter may be in the cards, with colder temperatures and above normal snowfall.

However, if the La Nina strengthens any further, and the warm water diminishes in the Gulf of Alaska, this will completely alter the jet stream around to feature cold & stormy weather in the Pacific northwest, and warm & dry weather in the southeast U.S., possibly as far north up the coast to Boston.

I need to monitor temperature trends here in Boston for November, to be able to determine which way the pendulum will swing. Right now, the La Nina is fairly weak, and the warm water is persisting in the Gulf of Alaska, but that could change as we head into November.

Another question I get asked about frequently, is what constitutes official Indian Summer. Many folks throw around the term “it’s Indian Summer” in the late fall. However, to be classified as official Indian Summer, your location must  receive a first frost or freeze.

It is defined as a period of warm, sunny weather with light winds, after the first frost. Real, true Indian Summer typically happens in November, or even early December, when all the leaves have fallen from the trees.

With that being said, the warm weather coming this week is certainly worthy of being classified as Indian Summer, especially since the majority of the reion has experienced frost.

Now for your weekly fall outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Expect a beautiful rest of the day for your Monday. There will be some increasing clouds, but it will be mild, with highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Watch for some beautiful colors popping against the backdrop of dark clouds later today!

Tonight will feature some clouds, and very mild conditions. Late at night, and early tomorrow, a warm front crossing the region may trigger some isolated showers, or possibly even a scattered thunderstorm.

Tomorrow may start off with some low clouds and foggy areas, but expect this to burn off by late morning. When this happens, watch for temperatures to sky rocket up into the lower 80’s!

Yes, as mentioned above, because 90% of New England has received their first frost, I would classify this as Indian Summer! Record high temperature for Boston tomorrrow is 82. If it clears out early enough, we do have a shot of hitting 83 tomorrow!

Tomorrow night will feature dry and mild weather, with lows near 60. Because of the tropical airmass, there is a chance of some foggy areas developing.

Wednesday may start off with more low clouds and fog, but this too should burn off, yielding to a sunny and very warm afternoon. Record high for Wednesday is 84. This may be difficult to hit, but I don’t think many will be complaining with highs near 80!

As the tropical airmass increases Wednesday night, expect a better chance of low clouds and foggy areas to develop. It will be a warm night, with lows mainly in the lower 60’s.

A slow moving cold front will begin to push into New England. With the increase in moisture, low clouds may be more difficult to burn off on Thursday. Therefore, temperatures may not be as warm, with highs in the lower 70’s. In addition, there is a chance of some areas of showers deloping later in the day, and especially at night.

As the cold front moves closer, it will interact with some tropical  moisture moving up from the south. This should result in a fairly wet day on Friday. It may not be a complete washout, but expect rain at times throughout the day.

Any early morning showers should give way to clearing and much cooler weather for Saturday. Back to reality! Highs should remain in the 50’s during the day, and drop into the 20’s and 30’s at night.

Sunday will be another crisp, fall day, with sunny skies, and cool temperatures of in the 50’s. A great day for a foliage trip! Another cold night will be on tap, with lows once again in the 20’s and 30’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have another fall foliage forecast. I will also be elaborating on my thoughts for this winter! In the meantime, enjoy Indian Summer this week, the cold gales of winter will be sure to follow!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Fall, Extravaganza! 10/10/16

Happy Columbus Day, to all! What a pain in the neck it was, trying to forecast Hurricane Matthew! Last week at this time, it was looking like the storm would be impacting New England today. How did that turn out? Certainly not the way I envisioned it!

Last week, I talked about three different scenerios on how the storm could play out. I’m happy to say, out of the three, eastern Massachusetts got dealt the very best solution!

After lashing the Carolinas with nearly 20″ of rain and wind, Matthew weakened as it began to move out. However, before it did, the storm interacted with a slow moving cold front crossing New England.

At the last second, moisture streamed up the coast and resulted in a soaking rainstorm for eastern Mass yesterday, without the damaging winds! In fact, it was Boston’s most significant rainfall since last May!

After delivering a devastating blow to Haiti, Hurricane Matthew tore through the Bahamas, then had its sights set on Florida. Earlier forecasts showed worst case scenerios, with a category 4 hurricane raking the east coast of Florida, from south to north.

As it turned out, the center of the storm stayed just offshore. Had the eye wall, the core of the hurricane, tracked just 30 miles further to the west, an even more destructive storm would of been the outcome in Florida. As it was, there was significant damge to many locations.

From there, the storm continued to move north, tracking nearly parralel to the southeast coast. As the storm interacted with land, it began to slowly lose strength.

However, it still was loaded with moisture, unleashing biblical amounts of rain in the Carolinas overe the weekend. Thoughts and prayers go out for folks dealing with flooded homes and businesses down there.

Had that storm barreled into New England, it could of been a disaster. Trees, weakened by the severe drought, would of taken a severe hit. Not to mention all of the power outages and disruptions. We were very fortunate here in New England!

In a dramatic turn of events, we went from possibly dealing with a destructive storm, to what could be one of the best Columbus Day holidays in recent moemory! I don’t think may are complaining!

Reports coming in from the north country, is some of the best fall foliage in years! I posted a link on my Facebook page from a drone flying over the foliage in Vermont.

As the drone flew over Vermont last Friday, the colors could not of looked more vivid! I was also very excited to see many other folks posting pictures of beautiful foliage up north over the weekend.

What about all the talk of a dull season? Yes, a few weeks back it certainly looked to be the case. However, looking back, I see exactly what Mother Nature is up to. As you already know, she doesn’t like to reveal all her secrets!

No doubt, it was officially the driest summer on record here in Boston. In addition, it certainly was one of the hottest since 2010. However, there was a subtle change…and I saw it. I just made a note of it, and waited to see if it would make a difference.

A subtle shift to the hot & dry pattern, the day after summer ended, may of saved our foliage season! It still remains to be seen here around Boston, but it certainly may of did the trick up north.

Of course, northern New England has had more rainfall than southern New England. To bring out the best colors, Mother Nature requires a fine balance of weather conditions. How these factors interact with one another to reveal the best colors, will  most likely never be fully understood.

As I mentioned above, a fine balance is needed. But what is the most important ingredient?

Trees begin to change color due to the diminished amount of daylight they recieve this time of year. Weather factors such as rainfall, temperature and wind determine how bright the leaves get.

When the seasons changed, I noticed a sudden drop in temperature. Nothing too severe, but it was notable. There was a string of sunny, mild days, and clear cool nights.

In addition, we have had many days with a cool, onshore wind coming in off of the ocean. This leads me to believe that it may be the timing of changes, more than seasonal patterns that determine how bright the colors are in fall. Nothing scientific about that, just my thoughts.

For the Boston area, it’s still early. Peak conditions do not move through the city until the last week of October, and first week of November. Further inland, it happens much sooner, and does not last as long.

Early indications, are for some really bright splashes of color. Which is interesting, because we had the worst drought conditions over the summer.

The beauty about living in coastal New England, is that the climate is modified, and peak fall foliage can last up to two or even three weeks!

To get bright colors here in the city, we are going to need some help this year. We’re going to need a continuation of sunny, mild days, along with clear cool nights.

It’s difficult to say how much of a role the lack of rain will play, in determining how bright the colors will be. Recent rains may give the trees a suden surge of nutrition, keeping them greener longer. As I said earlier, we may get a brief burst of vivid colors, before the leaves drop.

Up north, especially across Vermont, and the White Mountain region of New Hampshire, it’s peak fall colors right now! As I mentioned earlier, reports say the colors are the best in years.

If you can’t make it up north, just wait a couple weeks, and the beautiful colors will be here in your back yard!

Now for weather history. It was just 5 years ago this weekend, that many folks were hanging out at the beach. That’s right, instead of fall foliage trips, many people were going to the beach! It was a Columbus holiday weekend, like no other! I for one, will never forget the unprecedented warm, sunny weather that weekend.

For three straight days, we enjoyed temperatures in the mid to even upper 80’s, low humidity, light winds, and 100% of the possible sunshine. The unusual weather was certainly a precurser for the upcoming winter. Winter 2011-12 went down as one of the least snowiest, and warmest in recorded history!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity autumn forecast. A much easier forecast this week! I will rate this week a 9 out of 10! Expect a beautiful Columbus Day, here across New England!

After a few morning clouds, skies will clear, and be totally sunny this afternoon. There will be a gusty cool wind from time to time. Temperatures will range from 60 degrees near the coast, to upper 50’s across the interior.

Tonight will be clear, and cold! In fact, many furnaces will turn on, as it will be the coldest night of fall, so far! Expect temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30’s across much of the region, 5 miles inland from the coast. This means many communities may see their first frost. Urban areas should remain in the lower 40’s.

From the period of Tuesday through Friday, expect sunny, mild days, and clear cool nights. The only exception will be on Thursday night, where a cool front may bring a chance of scattered showers.

Otherwise, look for temperatures to range between 60 and 64 degrees along the coast, and 65 to 69 degrees inland.  Overnight lows will be cool, with  lows mainly in the 40’s, except some 30’s in rural areas.

Next weekend, expect it to be a classic New Enland fall weekend! Saturday will feature sunny skies, and crisp temperatures, with highs in the 50’s.

Watch for cold temperatures Saturday night! It could be even colder than tonight. With light winds and clear skies,  temperatures will drop into the upper 20’s and low 30’s, with widesapread frost across the interior!

Even some coastal communities may have frost! In urban areas, temperatures should stay above freezing. Low temperature at Logan Airport may be in the lower 40’s, but it may be 5 degrees cooler in surrounding neighborhoods, including here in West Roxbury, which may experience scattered frost as well!

Sunday, expect sunshine, but with some increasing couds during the day. It will turn slightly milder, with highs in the lower 60’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know if we can expect any Indian Summer this fall! I will also have another fall foliage forecast! In the meantime, enjoy the beautiful fall weather, because we know what comes next!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Birthday, to my sister Valerie, today!~

Columbus Day, Storm? 10/3/16

Hello! Welcome to October! Right on cue, the weather seems to of switched from summer to fall, seemingly overnight. But what a summer it was! Certainly the best I could remember…at least since summer 2010.

After a relentless run of above normal temperatures, and blistering summer heat & humidity, things have really cooled off, just about when fall officially arrived a couple weeks ago. It hasn’t been cold, but I think we can all agree that there’s been a noticeable change.

A stalled storm south of New England, has delivered chilling northeast winds, drizzle, fog, and some much needed rain here as we began October.

While attending a family get together yesterday, many were asking me if this had something to do with Hurricane Matthew. The short answer to this question is no.

In fact, quite the opposite. This type of storm pestering us since last Wednesday has all the makings of a winter type scenerio. Should this pattern repeat itself in the winter months ahead, you better get your snow blowers ready!

Last week, I mentioned how I will be monitoring when our first freeze occurs in Boston to help me determine what type of winter we may be in store for.

Now that we’re in October, it’s time to start watching and observing Mother Nature’s clues very carefully, as to what type of winter is on the way.

Along with when our first freeze occurs, I also carefully observe how thick the fog is during October and November. It may be an old wives tale, but it does say, “the thicker the fog in the fall, the heavier the snow will fall.”

I love old weather sayings, and old wives tales! It may not have any sicentific proof behind it, but the old time farmers knew a thing or two!

I’ve been following this saying, and have found some truth to it! I remember a couple years ago during November of 2014…a tremendously thick fog settled over the city of Boston.

Someone in a helicopter actually took a picture of the John Hancock and Prudential buildings poking up through the thick fog below, which looked like a thick blanket of snow.  I need not remind you what happened in February of 2015??

Yes, we had fog this weekend, and I took note of it. It remains to be seen if we have more days and nights of fog we will have this fall.

Being such a warm and dry autumn last year, we did not have much fog. Consequently, what snow fell last winter, melted quickly. Northern New England had one of the least snowiest winters on record last year.

There are many clues I observe that goes into making my official winter forecast. The fog clue is just 1 of 17 that I use! As I mentioned in my autumn forecast, it’s going to be a different fall this year. Already, temperatures are cooler than last year, and we’ve already had two decent rain events.

I believe this has a lot to do with El Nino. Last year, El Nino (warmer than average ocean off South America) was intensifying heading into winter.

This year, El Nino is gone. And in fact, a weak La Nina (cooler than average ocean off South America) has taken over. There are some indications that the ocean temperatures may become neutral, which means neither warmer or cooler than average.

This can be a cold signal for us here in New England. In addition, the warmer than normal water in the Gulf of Alaska, which is called the positive PDO, appears as if it will maintain its strength this winter.

This would promote a ridge of high pressure in western Canada (warm and dry), and a trough of low pressure in eastern part of the U.S. (cold and stormy).

If this is true, it could mean a much colder and snowier winter for us here in New England this year. I will be monitoring all of these possibilities as we move deeper into the fall. My official winter forecast will be published on November 21st this year.

With the recent rains, some have been asking me if it’s enough to salvage our foliage season. As I have mentioned before, it’s a fine balance of moisture, temperature and sunlight. We can predict all we want, but Mother Nature has the final say as to how bright the colors are going to be.

Because of the severe drought, one would think it’s going to be a dull season.

However,  reports coming in from Jeff Folger from Explore New England, is that the leaves are coming along just fine up in northern New England. In this region of New England, they have had more rain, and it wasn’t quite as hot as down here, this past summer.

Remember, now that we’re in October, fall foliage will be coming on strong. Look for peak conditions to rapidly overspread the White Mountain region  of New Hampshire over the next couple weeks. Then begin to head south, from there.

Even down here in the Boston area, I have noticed some splashes of bright colors. Because we are in a severe drought here in Boston, I still believe colors will be more muted this fall.

Peak colors arrive in Boston during the last week of October and first week of November. Recent rains may help give trees a last second boost, but I would like to see temperatures come down a bit during the overnight, to get the trees changing.

As we move towards the second half of October, we may see chilly weather begin to overspread New England. This could be just enough to bring out some bright colors, even here in Boston!

Many were also asking me what my thoughts were about Hurricane Matthew.  Matthew is currently a category 4 hurricane, with winds of 145 mph.

It even briefly attained category 5 (160 mph) status over the weekend. Matthew is located in the southern Caribbean Sea, and is slowly beginning to move north.

With this track, Matthew is destined to hit the western side of Haiti, resulting in catastrophic floods and winds. It will then continue to move generally in a north, northwestward motion, raking the Bahamas from south to north, with another devastating blow.

From there, this mornings data indicates that this hurricane is going to move in a northwestward track towards the Carolinas, possibly as a category 4 storm! This would be a devastating hit if this track holds. This would happen early this weekend at the earliest.

From there, we have to be on alert here in New England! Computer models have been waffling between tracking this storm straight up the coast, or taking a sharp right and sailing it out to sea.

From what I can see at this point, folks in eastern New England, and Cape Cod, need to pay close attention to the future track of this storm!

I normally take a blend of computer models. When I do this, it would track the storm in a classic winter time track, passing just east of Cape Cod and eastern Massachusetts. Should this track verify, this would result in a very stormy period here, later Sunday and into Columbus Day.

With a track like this, we would be looking at a very strong nor’easter type of storm, with high winds, perhaps up to hurricane force, along with flooding rains. As hurricanes reach our latitude, many times they transitions into a hybrid type of storm. Or transitions from a hurricane (warm core), to a extra tropical storm (cold core).

Nevertheless, this would still be a very dangerous, destructive storm. Please monitor local media outlets on the status of this storm. If conditions warrant, I will also update everyone.

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Keeping it right in the middle for now, as the exact track of Matthew will determine what’s going to happen around here this weekend.

For the rest of today, expect a bonus of some sun and building cumulus clouds. It will be milder than recent days, with highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Later today, a few pop up showers could occur, especially across the interior, close to I495.

A brisk northeast wind tonight will moisten the atmosphere once again, resulting in low clouds, drizzle and areas of fog. Lows will mainly be in the 50’s.

Tomorrow will start off with low clouds, and fog. Hopefully, the sun will burn this off, resulting in some afternoon sun. It will be on the cool side, with a wind coming in off of the ocean. Highs will be in the 60’s.

For the period of Wednesday through Friday, expect beautiful October weather, with sunshine and mild days in the 60’s, and cool nights, mainly in the 40’s.

We then turn our attention to Hurricane Matthew. As I mentioned above, all interests should be monitoring this storm. At this point, Saturday looks ok, with some sun mixed with clouds.

A brisk northeast wind will make it a bit chilly along the coast. If the storm comes, winds will begin to increase out of the northeast on Sunday.

Rain may begin to move in during the day and continue at night. If the full brunt of the storm comes, expect a very stormy period later Sunday night into Columbus Day, with storm force to hurricane force winds of greater than 74 mph, along with flooding rains.

This would result in widespread power outages, and trees down. Again, this is a week away, and much can change between now and then. I am only going on a educational guess and intuition at this point. If and when it becomes more apparent a storm is coming, I will be sure to update everyone!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my latest fall foliage update. Also, be looking out for an important update later this week on the storm, if conditions warrant. In the meantime, big storms have happened before in October, is history ready to repeat itself?

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Unsettled…For A Change! 9/26/16

Hello, everyone! Where’s the tme going? We’re already in the final days of September…October 1st is this Saturday! And right on cue, the weather is changing!

You couldn’t ask for a more beautiful early autumn weekend across much of New England! After some brief showers Friday night, a change to cooler, drier weather, followed for the weekend.

In fact, things turned pretty chilly the past couple nights! After a summer which featured hitting 90 degrees 22 times, it certainly didn’t take long for the feel of fall to make itself felt!

With Canadian high pressure to our north, and clear skies and light winds, a process called radiational cooling took place across New England last night.

This means any heat generated by the sun on Sunday, radiated back out into space last night. With the nights getting longer, temperatures can drop quickly!

When I give my forecast, I always talk about a difference in temperatures from suburban loactions, compared to in the cities.

This was a classic case of urban heat island effect last night! While many suburban towns dropped into the 30’s last night, most urban areas remained in the 40’s.

This is because the buildings and concrete holds more heat and keeps it warmer than rural areas.

In fact, some low lying locations such as Norwood, Ma. dropped into the upper 20’s early this morning! Other towns were also in the low to mid 30’s with frosty conditions for the first time this year. This was also the case in New Hampshire, where many towns reported their first frost this morning.

If you live within 5 miles of the ocean, this helps modify the temperatures, keeping frost away. This is a classic example of latent heating and cooling which I also talk about often.

The ocean takes longer to cool off than the land, keeping coastal locations warmer deeper into the fall, than interior locations.

Some may wonder, is this early to get frost? Summer just finished last Thursday! The answer to this qustion is, yes! Especially here is southern New England.

Up in northern New England, not so much. Seeing frost the last week of September is fairly normal up there, especially inland, away from the coast by 5 miles.

Average dates of first frost here in southern New England, vary greatly across the state. In suburban areas, set back away from the ocean, frost typically occurs the first week of October.

Where I live in West Roxbury, we typically see our first frost anywhere between October 15th to the 25th.

Logan Airport, where the official reading is for Boston, does not reach freezing on average until November 7th! So you can see how much the ocean modifies the climate!

Of course these are all “averages” and can vary greatly from year to year. Some years, Logan doesn’t reach 32 degrees until December, while other years it can happen around mid-October!

I closely keep track of first frosts and when locations drop to 32 degrees. Not only is this the end of the growing season, but I also like to keep track of this data for climate change purposes.

I also keep a very close eye when Logan Airport drops to 32 degees. This is a very important observation that goes into my winter forecast.

After doing quite a bit of research, I found the closer to the average date the temperature falls to freezing, the worse the winter following winter will be. Too soon, or too late, seems to play a part as to how severe the winter will be.

Last year, Logan actually dropped to freezing on October 18th. the end result? The second warmest winter on record, with below average snowfall.

Having a first freeze too late is also a bad sign if you prefer snowy winters. I believe the latest 1st freeze in Boston was on December 9th back in 2006.

Winter barely showed up that year, with very little snow and cold. Needless to say, I will be keeping a close eye on first frosts in our area this year!

With some locations having their first frost last night, does this mean Indian Summer is on the way? Yes! Indian Summer is a period of warm, sunny weather with light winds, after you receive your first frost.

This typically happens in October, but can also happen in November. When it occurs in November, it’s a more traditional Indian Summer, because by that point, most have had their first frost.

Last fall, was the Indian Summer that never left! I believe this fall is going to be a bit different. Already, I see some differences showing up this year, compared to last.

Though it looks cooler this fall, a warm October still appears to on the way. For my summer fans, this is music to their ears!

The reason? Typhoons (another name for hurricanes) have been very active in the western Pacific Ocean this summer. When these storms track west into Japan and the Philippines, it brings warmer weather to the east coast. This is called a teleconnection. What happens in one part of the world, has a direct connection in another.

Later in the season, I believe these storms will recurve, and track north, then northeast. When this happens, it pumps a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) into western Canada and Alaska.

The downstream result is to bring a trough (cold & stormy) weather into the eastern part of the United States. I believe this will begin to happen later in October and especially as we head into November.

I still believe, an abrupt change to wintery weather is going to happen this year in November. This will play an important role in my overall forecast for this winter.

Now for your fall foliage report. The recent chilly nights is very encouraging news for fall foliage lovers! This is especially true for northern New England.  This along with shorter amount of sunlight, begins to help change the leaves.

Chilly nights begins to tell the trees that winter is coming, and they begin to shut down the nutrients to the leaves. Other factors, such as temperatures, and amount of precipitation play an important role as to how vivid the colors will turn.

Speaking of precipitation, Boston is still enduring through a severe drought. I don’t believe the recent rain here in Boston is enough to help our trees this fall. I’ve already seen many leaves beginning to just fall off the trees.

No doubt, temperatures and precipitation play an important role as we head into foliage season. It’s possible a brief burst of color will precede a long drawn out period of brown leaves. So far, most areas around Boston remain green or brown.

There are some splashes of color around swamps and bogs. Where, because of the water source, may offer the best colors this fall around here. As always, Mother Nature has the final say, no matter what we forecast. Expect surprises!

Up in the north country, things are a bit different. Color is beginning to show up in the White Mountain region of New Hampshire, and northern areas of Maine.

These locations have received more rain than our area, and a colorful season may still be salvaged. With the recent chilly nights, expect the leaves to begin to start changing quickly up there.

I would say peak colors should be in this area by the second week of October. Hitting peak times is often tricky. In higher elevations, peak colors may sweep through in less than a week, then it’s over. Lower elevations can feature beautiful colors through the month of October. Plan accordingly!

The beauty about living near the coast, is we typically have a longer fall foliage season. Cool air from Canada, mixes with the modifying air from the ocean, to slow down the process.

The Boston area is located in a perfect spot for a long duration season. Some years, beautiful fall colors can begin in early October, and last all the way until the second week of November!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Ugh! Summer is over! After a spectacular Monday, it’s going to turn unsettled for a change!

Expect deep blue skies, with nice and mild temperatures this afternoon. With light winds, look for highs in the upper 60’s. A beautiful late September day!

Tonight will feature increasing clouds. Because of this, temperatures will not be as cold. Expect lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

Watch for rain tomorrow morning! In fact, there also may be a few heavy downpours and possibly even a thunderstorm. It will be noticeably warmer and more humid.

During the afternoon, the rain will end, and skies may begin to brighten up. Rain and showers may continue for the better part of the day down on the Cape.

Tuesday night should feature somewhat muggy weather for this time of the year, along with areas of fog, and possibly a few more showers. Lows will be in the 50’s ands low 60’s.

Expect unsettled weather for the period of Wednesday through Saturday. This is a big change to what we’ve been used to this past summer.

An unusual storm will be slowly spinning southeastward from the great lakes region to south of New England. This, in combination with a strong high pressure area north of New England, is going to result in a damp onshore flow.

As the storm spins to our south, areas of rain are going to be pinwheeling into southern New England off of the ocean. However, it will not be raining all of the time.

In fact there’s a chance of a small break on Thursday with some sunshine. However, with a northeast wind off the ocean, temperatures will be cooler, with highs mainly in the 6o’s, and lows in the 50’s.

The storm may move just far enough away to make for sunnier weather Sunday…but this is not a high confidence forecast.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review the month of September, and have a updated preview of October. I will also have a new tropical update.

I am carefully watching a new storm which will be named Mathew, as hurricane season is still not over yet. I will also have a new fall foliage report. In the meantime, enjoy the beautiful weather today, unsettled times are ahead!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Birthday to my nephew Nick, and niece Olivia!~

Summer Review; Fall Preview…9/19/16

Hello, everyone! It was yet another beautiful week across much of New England. The weekend was a split decision, with Saturday being the better of the two weekend days. Sunday wasn’t a washout by any means, but it was just so darn muggy!!

Here it is, 3 days away from the official start of autumn, and many are still cranking the air conditioners!

I was at a family get together yesterday, and I was asked several questions about the weather. First, when was this muggy weather going to leave? Second, what kind of winter are we in for this year? And third, when is this awful drought going to break! All loaded questions!

As usual, my family challenges me with very good questions about the weather! Loving to talk about the weather so much, I was more than happy to answer all questions to the best of my ability.

Way back in August, I made reference to this year featuring an endless summer. Wait, I thought last year was an endless summer?

Yes, it most certainly was! When it comes to the weather, most folks have a short memory. No worries, that’s what I’m here for! No doubt, we remeber things we are passionate about.

For me, this happens to be  past weather events and patterns. For this reason, I have the uncanny ability to remember past events very well, helping me to forecast events for the future!

I understand there’s nothing scientific about it, but it seems to work well for me.

Endless summer. Just what would qualify for a true endless summer? After the historic 2014-15 winter, last summer certainly got off to a slow start.

In fact, the final pile of snow did not completely melt in Boston until July 14th that year! It was at that point, that a major pattern change commenced.

If you recall, the first 90 degree day did not occur until July 16th last year. We then proceeded to hit 90 degrees 14 times…5 of which came in September!

And it didn’t stop there. As we went deeper into the fall, the temperatures were actually warming against the averages! This resulted in one of the warmest autumn’s on record in much of New England.

Remember walking outside in short sleeved shirts on Christmas Day? This is what I would call a true endless summer!

In some ways, this summer was similar to last. Once again, it started off on the slow side, with only one 90 degree day recorded at Logan Airport though June. My original forecast of between 15 and 20 days of 90 or greater in Boston looked to be in jeopardy.

Rather than panicking, and changing my forecast, I stuck with my original thoughts, and lucky I did! To make a seasonal forecast, quite a bit of research and intuition goes into it.

For this reason, I waited patiently for the true summer pattern to emerge. When it did, it did not disappoint. To this date, Boston has reached or exceeded 90 degrees a whopping 22 times!

Long time WBZ Boston meteorologist Barry Burbank predicted it right on the button! That’s what I call a pro!

With fall arriving on Thursday, the chances of hitting 90 again in Boston are rapidly diminishing. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it would be the exception rather than the norm.

I will say this, with the dry soil levels of this summer, hitting 90 once more does have a better chance this year, than in others. We shall see!

Speaking of dry weather, I certainly was not expecting this to turn out to bve the driest summer on record in Boston! I believe only 3.92″ of rain fell this summer, breaking the record of 3.97 way back in 1957.

Dating back to last year, Boston has a deficit of nearly 20″ of precipitation. This past week the U.S. drought agency, expanded the extreme drought to more than 50% of Massachusetts, centered mainly in eastern areas.

What about this fall? Since we technically are still in summer, this warm, muggy weather is not too unusual. Many people think just because it’s September, the leaves should be turning colors and frost should greet them in the morning.  Mother Nature doesn’t work that way. Because the oceans are still so warm, seasonal shifts of 4 to 6 weeks are still occurring.

Meaning, the summer is extending deeper into the fall. Due to latent heating and cooling, it takes the oceans longer to cool off than the land. Therefore, cold air will be greatly modified as it heads to coastal New England during the fall.

However, because El Nino will not be a factor this winter, I believe an abrupt shift to colder weather is in store for New England as we head into November this year. This still leaves a fairly mild October for many to enjoy this year.

Night time temperatures should be colder, leading to a overall cooler fall than last year.

It’s also going to begin to turn wetter. Today is just the beginning. As we head deeper into the fall, especially as we head into November, precipitation is going to be on the increase across New England.

With it turning colder earlier, some of this precipitation will be falling as snow, especially across northern New England. So expect an earlier start to the ski season this winter!

With the increased precipitation this winter, I’m expecting the extreme drought conditions to lessen across the region. At this early juncture, I’m leaning towards a colder and snowier winter than last year, especially across northern New England.

However, to what degree is still in question. As we move deeper into October, I will be sharing more of my thoughts about this upcoming winter, leading up to my official winter forecast, which will be published on November 21st this year.

With fall arriving on Thursday, many are planning fall foliage trips across New England. I have said this before, no matter how bright the leaves turn, New England always seems to impress during autumn.

It may be a certain tree, the smell of wood stoves burning, a crisp afternoon. Whatever it is, fall in New England is most always a very enjoyable time of the year!

Right now, the leaves are beginning to turn across much of northern New England. With chilly weather arriving this weekend, this is the perfect recipe to get the leaves changing color.

Because northern New England has had much more rainfall than southern New England, the color of the leaves should be fine. It’s a fine balance of several factors that bring out the most vivid colors.

Reports of a poor season on the way may be premature. With cooler nights on the way,  and with just enough rainfall, the colors up north should be just fine.

In my opinion, much has to do with night time temperatures. If it’s too warm, the trees nutrient system may not shut down, leading to muted colors.  So we’re going to need some help from the weather here in late September and into October.

Even down here in Boston, where the drought is extreme, I see some trees already starting to show some bright colors. In Boston, it may be a case of a short burst of bright colors, followed by a long drawn out afair of muted colors, and dried up leaves.

The drought has been too severe for the trees to overcome down here in Boston. Look for brightest colors near swamps, ponds and bogs this year! No matter what, Mother Nature will surely surprise many!

To answer the question, when this humidity is going to break? I would say genuine relief is coming by the end of this week. In the interim, it will be not as muggy over the next few days.

But by this weekend, you’ll  be reaching for that blanket come Sunday morning! That’s when you’ll know, the seasons have officially changed!

Now for your weekly fall outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10.

For the rest of today, expect areas of showers and downpours. I believe the heaviest rain is done for Boston, but areas of rain will still move across the city, resulting in mainly a wet afternoon. Heavier rain will continue south of the city and across the Cape.

Heavy downpours this morning resulted in a good 1 to 2″ of rain across much of the area. After a rainless summer, this has certainly been welcome relief for many!

It will still feel muggy, with highs in the 70’s. Expect cloudy and muggy weather to continue tonight. In addition, there may be more showers across coastal areas, inside of I95 and especially across the Cape.

Early morning damp weather will slowly end across eastern areas on Tuesday. Sunshine should begin to develop from west to east during the afternoon. This should allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70’s. It will still have a tropical feel out there.

For the period of Wednesday through Friday, expect mainly sunny and warm weather, with highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. Low temperatures should mainly be in the upper 40’s to upper 50’s. Welcome to the Autumnal Equinox at 10:21 AM on Thursday!

There may be some showers moving through the area on Friday night, early Saturday. Otherwise, right on cue, expect much cooler and drier air to flow into New England this weekend!

Expect high temperatures to be in the upper 60’s on Saturday, and upper 50’s to lower 60’s on Sunday, under Sunny skies. By the way, temperatures on Saturday night will fall into the 30’s and 40’s, coldest in rural areas, warmest in urban locations…brrr!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will discuss my latest thoughts about our upcoming winter. I will also have another fall foliage report, as well as a drought update.

In the meantime, it’s time for fall, but don’t put away all the summer attire just yet!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Signs of Autumn…9/12/16

Hello! It wasn’t perfect, but we still can’t complain too much about last week’s weather. Overall. my rating of 7 out of 10 was way too generous, though!

Tropical storm Hermine was very pesky! She lingered into the week much longer than I anticipated! And for what? All that cloudy, foggy, gloomy weather for only a quarter to a half inch of rain! Not that we shouldn’t appreciate any rainfall at this point, but really?

It just shows how resilient this severe drought is. Even a tropical storm is no match for the exceptionally dry air over our region.

As forecasted, after the storm finally left, the steam heat of summer surged back into the region, with Boston tying a record high temperature on Friday, of 93 degrees!

As they say, it wasn’t the heat, it was the humidity! With air temperatures in the 90’s and dew points in the low 70’s, this turned out to be the second hottest feeling day of the summer…here in September!

Yes, just because the calander says September, does not mean it can’t get hot! Just last year, Boston reached 90 degrees 5 times, even recording a full fledged heat wave!

Many folks have been asking me why it’s been so hot the past several September’s? There is no clear cut answer to this question. With that being said, I believe much has to do with the ocean temperatures.

No doubt, we are in a very warm cycle…perhaps the warmest in recorded history. With the Atlantic and the Pacific being so warm, this has skewed the latent heating and cooling cycle.

Meaning, the summer extends deeper into the fall, and the winter deeper into spring. Remember, in the fall, the ocean takes longer to cool off than the land. This keeps coastal locations warmer deeper into the fall, than one would expect.

With this seasonal shift in place, warm weather is extending deeper into the fall around here, in some cases up to 4 to 6 weeks longer than normal!

Rather than just blaming it on Global Warming, I believe the weather goes in cycles. Statistically speaking, we go through warm cycles of 20 to 30 years, then cold ones for similar length of time. However, in recent times, these cycles seem to be more extreme.

In recent years,  we’ve seen some of the warmest global temperatures in recorded history over the past several years. It seems like it keeps getting warmer and warmer each year.

Here in Boston, 14 out of the last 16 months have featured above normal average monthly temperatures. In some cases, record warm averages!

I believe last December and this past August were the warmest months ever recorded for us here in Boston!

Keep in mind, before that, we went through a streatch of colder than normal temperatures, with February 2015 being the second coldest month ever recored in Boston, and also the snowiest on record! Who will ever forget that month?

So where do we go from here? Can we expect another blow torch fall like we experienced last year? If you recall, last year, one of the strongest El Nino’s (warm water) on record was beginning to boil off the coast of South America in the south Pacific Ocean.

I believe this most certainly was a major contributor, adding quite a bit of heat into the atmosphere.  This year, the ocean temperatures are quite different in the Pacific. Meteorologists have been debating whether a La Nina (cold water) is developing in its place.

No doubt, La Nina has begun to surface, where El Nino once ruled. The question now is just how strong will it become, and how much of a factor it will be in our upcoming winter.

Others believe a neutral winter is on the way. This means not cold or warm in the Pacific. These winters  typically are colder across the midwest and sometimes northeast.

As it is, without the strong El Nino, I’m expecting a cooler regime to slowly overtake the pattern. Despite a near record hot summer, this autumn does not appear to be as warm as last year.

Remember last year? We were wearing short sleeve shirts on Thanksgiving & Christmas Day!

After another very warm September, I believe we are going to begin to settle back to a more seasonable October this year. Remember, the look in the Pacific Ocean is much different than last year.

Last week, I mentioned about the summer of 1995 being very similar to this year. This is one of the years I’m monitoring closely as a anologue year to this winter.

That summer, much like this one, featured a severe drought across much of New England, which persisted deep into the fall. A weak La Nina, coupled with high latitude blocking resulted in a very stormy winter that year.

El Nino is fading, and it appears that the + PDO (very warm pool of water) also called Pacific Decadel Oscillation, off of Alaska is going to persist into the winter.

I believe this is going to be the key whether real winter comes our way or not this year. I apologize if I keep going back and forth with this subject, on whether it’s weakening or strengthening.

Every source is different on what’s really happening. It seems folks who don’t want winter weather is claiming the PDO is tanking negative (getting colder).

Others who want cold and storms in eastern U.S. are claiming it’s as warm as it has ever been, and will be the main driver this winter.

This is important, as a warm PDO would promote ridge of high pressure in western Canada, and force cold air and storminess into the eastern part of the U.S.

A negative PDO (cold water in the Gulf of Alaska would promote cold & stormy weather in Alaska and Pacific northwest this winter.

If the former wins out, a southeast ridge would keep at least southern New England mostly warm for the better part of the winter.

If the latter wins out, a very energetic northern jet stream would cut across the country, possibly bringing heavier than average snows to New England, specifically northern New England.

Speaking of warm and dry, our severe drought has not only remained in place, but has also increased in area coverage up to southeast New Hampshire last week.

Expect severe drought conditions to continue at least through September, with small improvements.

As we head into middle September, it’s time to start talking fall foliage! As it always is, this is going to be very tricky this year! As with many things, Mother Nature has the final call on the colors each year.

Because of the severe drought, I’m expecting a muted all foliage season in eastern Massachusetts, extending up the North Shore, into southeast New Hampshire.

This does not mean there will be no color! Each year brings surprises, and is beautiful in its own right. However, due to the excessive hot & dry weather, expect the colors to be muted, changing to yellow or brown prematurely.

As always, there will be some brilliant reds mixed in there, just not as much as other years.

We typically see peak fall colors move through the Boston area the last week of October. This year, colors are going to be changing earlier, along with premature leaf drop.

With all this being said, not everyone in New England is under a severe drought! Many areas of northern New England has had enough rain this summer, to avoid a lackluster season.

This means colors will begin showing up soon across northern Maine and New Hampshire. In fact, peak colors is typically the last week of September in northern Maine!

The color wave will then begin to travel from north to south as each week passes, arriving in the White Mountain region the second week of October.

Last year, we had no cool nights to start up the foliage season. I do believe we will see some chillier nights the second half of September to get this process started!

Overall, I’m still looking at a warmer than normal fall this year. However, I don’t believe it will be as warm as last year. Last year, we kept getting warmer against the averages, the deeper we went into the season.

This year, I believe it still will be warm, but begin to cool off as we head into October and November. November is a bit of a question mark. We could see an abrupt change to colder weather. I will be monitoring this possibility as we move deeper into the fall.

At this point, I see no drought changing rains through the rest of September and even October for that matter. The earliest things may begin to change is November.

Now for your weekly outdoor late summer forecast. I am expecting this week to be a 8 out of 10.

Expect a top ten day to continue for the rest of today! Enjoy 100% of the possible sunshine, with highs in the mid 70’s…with NO humidity! Watch for clear and cool weather tonight, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s regionwide. Warmest in urban settings.

Tuesday will feature mainly sunny weather, again! Temperatures will be a bit warmer. As winds turn to the southwest, watch for temperatures to be in the upper 70’s. A great late summer beach day, indeed!

Fair weather will continue tomorrow night. It will be milder than recent nights, with lows in the 50’s and lower 60’s. Wednesday will feature a surge of warmer and muggy air into much of New England.

Expect skies to become more hazy, as temperatures soar to between 85 and 90 degrees, again! It won’t be as hot as last Friday, but very warm, nonetheless!

A sharp cold front will be crossing the region Wednesday evening. Watch for a chance of a few showers, or even a gusty thunderstorm to move through anytime between 8 and midnight. After this cold front moves through, watch for a taste of fall to briefly visit the region.

For Thursday and Friday, it will be much like today, with deep cobalt blue skies, and clear crisp nights. High temperatures will be in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. Thursday night will be quite chilly, with widespread 40’s in suburbia, and lower 50’s in the city.

Make sure to check out the full “Harvest Moon” Friday night! It should be quite a sight!

Right now, the weekend looks like it will feature warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. Saturday looks okay to me, with a mix of sun and clouds. Right now, A front may be crossing New England on Sunday, bringing another chance of  showers.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my first fall foliage report! I will also let you know whether any significant rain is in the forecast.

In the meantime, enjoy the final days of summer while we have it! We can’t stop the change of the seasons!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Tracking Hermine…9/5/16

Happy Labor Day, to all! Labor Day is one of those bittersweet holidays. What’s nice about it, is that it’s a universal holiday, at least here in the states. Everyone celebrates it together, with no religion, or fear of offending anyone.

What isn’t nice about it, is that it signifies the unofficial end of summer. It also means back to school for many. It’s also the end of summer vacations and extended time off from work for many folks in the work force.

Meteorologically speaking, September 1st also signifies the beginning of fall. This is only for record keeping. It simplifies record keeping, to break the seasons up into quarters.

So we begin the meteorological fall, which includes September, October and November. The Autumnal Equinox does not officially arrive until September 22nd this year.

What else is Labor Day known for? Hurricanes. Over the course of history, there have been many devastating storms to hit around Labor Day.

I can name about five or six big ones that struck the country around Labor Day in the past. It makes sense, as the peak of hurricane season occurs around September 10th, on average.

What about this year? This was the year that could of been! Hermine, pronounced “Her-meen,” has given expert meteorologists, amateur and hobbyist fits, tracking this storm for nearly 3 weeks now!!

The picture I attached to this post is a bit of an exageration…but not by too much! This left many folks wondering, just what the heck is going on with these forecasts!

As I look out my weather window, we have yet another beautiful day going on here in the Boston area! I have been speaking with friends down the Cape, and they have reported to me that, yes, the wind has picked up, but it’s still not that stormy out!

Once again, my original forecast made last Monday, is working out just fine. Yes, there was a crummy day thrown in there, but compared to what could of been!!

Out of all the storms that occur on earth, hurricanes are one of the most difficult to track. The reason is that hurricanes are a tropical origin cyclone.

This time of year, and the majority time of the year, the main jet stream is far removed from tropical locations. This leaves these storms to be steered by week steering currents, and areas of high and low pressures. They are erratic,  fickle and change course without notice.

Last Friday, many meteorologists warned of a catastrophic storm hitting the mid-Atlantic region. I too, was seeing the same information they were. With the internet these days, information can be downloaded and shared within seeconds.

Remember, there was never a forecast made for New England for anything too serious for us up here.

However, it was a different story for parts of Long Island, New Jersey, Delaware, and Virginia areas. On Friday, computer models took the remnants of Hermine, and tracked it out off the mid-Atlantic coast.

From there, it was forecasted to merge with another storm system. Computer models picked up on this feature, and rapidly intensified this storm into a major sub-tropical, nor’easter type of a storm.

That was just part one. Part two was that to the north and east of the storm, a blocking ridge of high pressure “trapped” the storm just south of New England.

Computer models actually showed this storm stalling, then retrograding, or moving from east to west, slamming it into New Jersey and southern New York. A track such as this brought memories back from “Super Storm Sandy.”

If this track verified, a worst case scenerio would of unfolded. A catastrophic storm surge would of flooded this region. True, this track did not come to fruition, but I ask you this question.

Don’t you believe it would of been a disservice if meteorologists and government officials did not send out warnings about the impending storm?

Would if they decided to wait and see if this was really going to happen, and at the last second press the panic button to evacuate everyone?

When you’re dealing with people’s lives and massive property damage, I side with better to be safe than sorry scenerio. As it turnes out, computer models shifted the storm about 150 miles further east at the very last second.

On Sunday, when it appeared that the region was going to escape the brunt of the storm, all warnings and advisories were cancelled for the mid-Atlantic region, and a collective sigh of relief could be heard across the world.

As I mentioned earlier, with the advancement of the internet, I too saw the same information as the professionals did. Looking over everyhting that I could possibly look at, I too was guilty for sounding the alarm for the mid-Atlantic region.

Because it was within 48 hours of the event, I thought it was appropriate to update everyone as to what I was seeing.

And it’s still not over!! The forecast headaches continue even up to this posting. This storm is just getting started for us from Boston to the Cape.

You see, the storm never really left. There is a huge blocking ridge of high pressure to our north and east. The storm went out to sea up to a point, then stalled. Another upper level piece of energy is capturing this storm and is now in the process of pulling the storm north, northwestward…towards southeast New England!

A couple things are going on here. I remember a few years back Texas was in a terrible drought. In some cases, tropical storms can break droughts, with flooding rains.

In that year, a full fledged hurricane was heading right into central Texas off the Gulf of Mexico. As the hurricane approached, the moisture completely evaporated over the land! The end result was very little rain fell over land. High pressure, exceptionally dry air beat this storm into submission.

I believe something similar is occurring here in eastern New England. We are just coming off of the driest summer in recorded history here in Boston.

High pressure is anchored over New England. High pressure is associated with dry, sinking air. As the storm is moving north, moisture is no match for the ongoing drought.

This has certainly brought a couple of bonus sunny days across much of the region! I’m getting updates from friends down the Cape asking me what the heck am I writing about a storm for…it’s beautiful down here!

I do believe that this is a case of delayed but not denied! The storm is currently 200 miles south of New England, and is beginning to track to the north, northwest.

This means the worst of the storm is going to begin to start moving in from the south and east beginning very shortly. I will go over all the details of the storm in my forecast shortly.

As I explained earlier, Boston recorded it’s driest summer on record. It was also the hottest August’s on record. So far, Boston has received 20 ninety degree days this summer. And we’re not done yet!

I’m forcasting this September to continue the summer theme. Once we get Hermine out of the way, summer weather is once again going to surge into New England!

Therefore, I’m expecting it to hit 90 degrees another 3 to 5 times here in Boston this September. After the middle of September, as we head towards the Fall Equinox on the 22nd, there may be a pattern change to surges of cooler weather.

This is only a possibility at this point. It’s going to take a major atmospheric pattern shift to break this hot, dry pattern.

Now for your weekly beach and boating forecast. This is a tough call, Hermine the first part of the week is going to bring stormy conditions. Later, our 2016 summer of the ages is going to resume. Balancing it out, I will give it a 7 out of 10.

Expect a fairly stormy scenerio to unfold across the area later this afternoon through Wednesday morning. Watch for increasing winds as Hermine appraoches from the south. It will suddenly turn cloudy, and winds will begin to increase. Expect the strongest winds to occur down the Cape, where gusts could reach up to 55 mph.

Here in Boston, we could see gusts of up to 40 mph. Because the trees are still foliated, these winds are strong enough to break tree limbs, and possibly even topple some trees. This could result in some property damage, and power outages across the area.

Keep in mind, because of the severe drought, tree roots are weaker than normal, and could result in a unexpected tree fall. In addition, with the storm moving northwest, this is going to bring a modest surge of ocean water towards the southeast coast.

Even east coast mass has to monitor the tides, due to the relentless east to northeast winds. Rough seas, large waves and rip currents will make being close to the ocean dangerous!

In addition, bands of rain are going to begin to pinwheel in oof of the ocean, moving from southeast to northwest. These bands are going to be heaviest from Cape Cod up to about Boston. unfortunately, we’re not talking about about several inches.

Right now, it’s looking like about an inch around Boston, to maybe 2 inches down on the Cape. These bands of rain will continue on and off through Wednesday.

As the storm moves out of the region, expect an abrupt change to hotter and muggy weather again for the period of Thursday through Sunday.

I am expecting 80’s on Thursday, 90’s Friday and Saturday, and low 80’s Sunday, with less humidity. There may be a shower or thunderstorm on Saturday. Otherwise no widespread rain is anticipated.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will  be discussing about our upcoming fall foliage season. I will also have a more in depth look at our severe drought, and the implications it may have. I may also let you know what kind of a fall I’m expecting this year.

In the meantime, whether we get the forecast right or not,  Mother Nature still has the final answer!  Be good, everyone.

Thanks for reading!

Pete

***Happy Birthday to my niece Elena, this week!***

Watching The Tropics…8/29/16

Hello! Where is the time going? Next weekend is already the Labor Day weekend holiday! Fortunately for us, Mother Nature does not go by holiday’s to determine when a season is finished.

Judging by all the positive comments left by folks last week, it looks like I have more fans of summer weather than previously thought!

Wow! what a vacation week! Thinking back, this could of been the best week of weather, here in Boston, since August of 1995. I don’t give out too many 1o out of 10’s, but if the scale was higher, I would of given last week an 11!

I vividly remember that summer, being very similar to this one. Like this summer, we had an onging drought that year. I’m not sure how many 90 degree days we had, but I’m pretty confident it was very similar to what we have now.

Back in 1995, the drought was much more widespread across New England than this year. Most of New England that year had a 8 to 12″ precipitation deficit heading into the fall.

Dry & very warm weather persisted into the fall, until a large scale pattern change occurred towards the end of October. The rest, as we say, went down in New England weather history, as one of the snowiest winters ever recorded unfolded for much of the 6 state region!

This year is a bit different. Severe drought is concentrated right here in eastern Massachusetts…especially here in the city of Boston and up along the north and south shores. So far, we are running deficits of between 8 and 12″ of precipitation.

In fact, should Logan Airport not register .5 tenths of an inch of rain through Wednesday, this would go down as the driest meteorological summer on record here in the city!

Right now, I see no rain in the city through Tuesday. However, a cool front will be punching into New England as we head into Wednesday.

Before that gets here, a surge of warm and muggy air will be encompassing the area. If this front arrives  early enough, it may be just strong enough to generate some showers and thunderstorms across the area.

As has been the case all summer, many of these storms have either fizzled or split as they head towards Boston, leaving us high and dry! It’s been quite remarkable to view this on radar this summer! It brought truth to the phrase “drought begets drought.”

Just this morning, a line of showers was moving towards Boston, only to fizzle into just few sprinkles.

Getting back to Wendesday, I say there’s a 50% chance that Boston picks up just enough rain during the evening, that prevents us from achieving the driest summer on record.

However, there’s also a 50% chance that we don’t get any rain. If that happens, and then we’ll go down in the record books as the driest summer on record! It only takes one shower to fall over the rain gauge at the airport.

Regardless whether we make a record or not, it’s still very dry! And it’s going to get worse, before it gets better. I see no significant rain coming for Boston at least through the first 10 days of September.

Does this mean a 1995-96 winter is on the way for New England this year? I was at my cousins wedding this past Saturday, and many family members were asking me great questions about the ongoing drought, and what this means for the upcoming winter.

As I mentioned above, this summer reminds me quite a bit of the summer of 1995. However, just because it has similarities, does not mean the end result is going to be the same. Mother Nature is complicated, and nearly every season is different than the other.

That year, New England was bombarded with some 18 snowstorms, beginning in November, and lasting straight into the middle of April!

Right now, I am not anticipating this type of a winter for southern New England. However, I will say this, the deeper the severe drought goes into the fall, the higher the chance of a very stormy winter ahead.

It’s just too early to tell from now. Very early indications support a mild and dry winter for Boston. With a cooling northern Pacific Ocean (negative PDO), and weak La Nina, this type of set up typically means cold and stormy Pacific northwest, and mild and dry southeast…sometimes inluding New England.

Other factors can significantly alter this typical set up, so I will need to closely monitor this as we head into fall. All of these details will be studied and discussed leading up to my official winter forecast published on November 21st this year.

So why has it been so dry this summer? This is actually a very complicated question. As my weather buddy Remy pointed out to me several weeks back, this dry cycle can be traced all the way back to 2005.

More seasons than not has featured below normal precipitation. The drought has worsened over the past couple years. There’s no easy answer to this question. We go through dry cycles, and wet ones.

A lot has to do with ocean temperatures, and prevailing jet stream winds. In Boston’s case, microclimates develop, and for some reason, a persistant high pressure area (sinking/stable air) appears to be hovering near eastern Massachusetts.

This has been stronger than low pressure as it approaches us. In addition, the main jet stream winds recede into Canada this time of year, leaving us with weak cool fronts crossing the area.

These fronts have not been strong this summer.  As they approach Boston moisture just evaporates as they run into the stubborn high pressure here in eastern Massachusetts.  It’s much more technical than how I’m explaining it, but I hope you get the idea.

As we move deeper into the fall, seasonal change will allow the jet stream to sink closer to New England, which should produce more precipitation across the region.

However, this is still a couple months away! Therefore, we must rely on the tropics to deliver the rain. There’s nothing like a juicy tropical system coming up the coast to quickly eradicate the ongoing drought! A bundle of tropical moisture can produce a quick 4 to 7″ of rain, in a short period of time!

Speaking of tropical storms, we are now rapidly heading into the peak of hurricane season, which on average, occurs on or about September 10th. Because the main jet stream is still up in Canada, this makes tracking tropical systems very challenging for meteorologists!

The steering currents are very weak, making the storms erratic, as they meander out in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean.

After years of dormant activity, the Atlantic is coming to life this year! Less wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and  reduced Saharan dust, have allowed tropical systems to blossom once again in the Atlantic.

Did you know, that the last hurricane to strike Florida, was Wilma, way back in 2005!

Because ocean temperatures are exceptionally warm, and atmospheric conditions are conducive this year, I am expecting a couple big hits! As a reminder, it only takes one to result in catastrophic damage.

I would say anywhere from the Gulf coast, Florida, and all of the east coast up to New England should be on gaurd for a possible hurricane this fall.

After reviewing the long range guidance, models are all over the place. One run has a huge hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The next run has it barreling up the coast to New England.

My official forecast is for some sort of tropical storm to hit New England this season. Whether it’s a tropical system with flooding rains, or a full fledged hurricane, be on gaurd for a storm!

Now for your weekly summer beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10! This week actually looks very similar to last week! The only blip will be Wednesday night and early Thursday, where we might get a few showers.

Expect mainly sunny and very warm weather for this afternoon, with highs between 85 nad 90. Dew points will also be dropping, so humidity levels will be in check.

This will be a great beach day, but boaters and swimmers, watch out! Hurrican Gaston, way out in the middle of the Atlantic is sending rip currents and swells towards the New Engalnd coast!

Tonight will feature mild temperatures and fair skies. With low dew points, it should be a very comfortable night for sleeping.

Tuesday will be another fine beach day! Watch for mainly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the lower 80’s. There will be a bit of a breeze. That, along with leftover swells from Gaston,  will make boating a bit of a challenge, but not impossible.

As winds turn southwest Tuesday night, expect an increase in humidity and haze. Low temperatures will be mainly in the 60’s.

Wednesday will start off with some clouds. Then skies should become at least partly sunny. It will turn quite warm to even hot on the last day of meteorological summer! Highs should be near 90.

Later in the day, a fairly strong front will approach. Right now, computer models are showing some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing Wednesday evening into early Thursday. As I mentioned earlier, I will give this a 50% chance of happening.

For the period of Thursday through Saturday, expect a touch of fall in the air! A large Canadian high pressure area will be building into New England, with deep, blue skies with, warm days, and cool crisp nights. Hello, September!

Expect temperatures to be mainly in the 70’s during the day, and 50’s at night. In fact, some rural areas may drop down into the upper 40’s!

Sunday should also be a beutiful day, with sunny skies and warmer temperatures, back into the lower 80’s.

At this point, I see no reason not to end the summer in style, for next Monday! Expect sunny and even warmer weather for Labor Day, with high temperaturtes near 90…again!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing about many topics. First, I will review August, and preview September.

Next, I will have a update on the tropics. I will also have a preview of our fall foliage season, and discuss about the possibility of an endless summer!

In the meantime, get ready for more outsdanding summer weather…then we watch the tropics!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Best Summer…Ever? 8/22/16

Well, that depends who you speak with. Folks that love to go to the beach, and enjoy hot, muggy weather…yes! For those who have to work outside, farmers, and fall foliage enthusiasts…not so much!

Hello! It was yet another banner summer weekend weatherwise for us here in New England! Friday was nearly perfect, with low humidity, warm temperatures, and light winds.

Saturday was another beautiful day, with some decorative clouds and warm temperatures.

Sunday, the great weather continued, with mainly sunny skies, and warm temperatures. As the day progressed, humidity levels were on the rise, but nothing like last week!

A strong cool front tore through New England during the middle of last night, or early this morning, bringing a couple hours of torrential downours and some loud rumbles of thunder.

In fact, the storm brought severe weather just northwest of Boston, in the Concord, Bedford area. I just read some breaking news off Twitter that the  National Weather Service has confirmed that an EF1 tornado did indeed touchdown in Concord early this morning.

This tornado damaged 39 homes, but fortunately, there were no injuries reported. An EF1 tornado is rated with winds between 80 and 100 mph. In terms of timing, the storm happened at the worst possible time.

NWS and local meteorologists did a good job forecasting the possibility of severe weather with this front as it passed through New England.

However, because of the timing, many folks were sound asleep, and would not of heard that a tornado warning was issued. Thank God the storm was not any worse, as people would of been caught off gaurd. Keep in mind, the tornado scale is rated from EF0 to EF5. So you can see it could of been a lot worse!

I don’t know how folks live in places like Oklahoma, where EF5 tornadoes occur from time to time. These size storms carry winds in excess of 200 mph!

Thank God we don’t see any of those storms here in New England! Although I do believe the Worcester tornado back in 1953 was an EF4!

While in Falmouth this past weekend, many friends and family were commenting just how great this summer has been. As I mentioned earlier, it depends who you talked to!

For beach goers, it has been a summer for the ages! Day after day has featured warm to hot temperatures, with virtually no rain to speak of!

In fact, Boston has a shot for this summer going down in the record books as the driest summer on record! This is still not a lock, though.

Last night, Logan Airport surprisingly reported .91″ of rain, in a short amount of time. This has brought total rainfall in Boston for the summer up to 3.93.”

Should we not get any more rain, this will go down as the driest summer on record. Which was the driest, you ask? Back in 1957, Boston recorded its driest summer, reporting 3.97″ of precipitation.

So you can see, wea re only .4″ away from tying it. Looking ahead, it looks like there is one more shot at a shower for the rest of the summer!

This is going to be around Friday of this week. Should Boston not record any rainfall, this will go down as the driest summer in recorded history! It’s going to be close!

How about heat? Boston has had an impressive 18 days of 90 degree + temperatures so far this summer. This has not been the hottest summer on record. I believe 1983 Boston recorded an astounding 33 days of 90 degree heat!

However…we are not done with the hot weather this summer! After a couple very brief cool downs, I believe the heat is going to come back for encore performances, well into September this year! So we may be tacking on at least another 4 to 7 days of 90 degree heat before it slowly fades.

It may not end up being the hottest summer receorded, but when you combine the lack of rain, and the amount of near perfect beach weather, you could make an argument that this may go down as one of the best summer’s ever here in eastern Massachusetts, including Boston and the Cape.

A couple other interesting questions asked by friends and family this past weekend, was what my thoughts were for the upcoming foliage season?

Next to winter, I love autumn in New England! Not so much like last autumn…too many warm days! I enjoy mild sunny days, and crisp chilly nights!

I believe last fall was one of the warmest falls on record in much of New England. This warm weather certainly delayed the trees from changing their beautiful colors.

However, a good supply of rainfall last summer, and just cool enough temperatures late in the season, brought a sudden burst of surprisingly vibrant colors last fall, right into November.

This is not my official forecast just yet, and I’m not an expert arborist, but I’m afraid the extreme drought we are experiencing, along with the potential of yet another very warm autumn, may mute the colors this season, especially here in eastern Massachusetts.

Because of the extremely hot and dry weather, many trees are under stress because of lack of nutrition.This may promote early leaf drop, and leaves turning yellow and brown.

As always, Mother Nature works in mysterious ways, and so many factors go into what makes the leaves turn to the beautiful colors we love.

Remember, Mother Nature has a system with everyhting. The drought was needed for some purpose. So keep in mind it’s part of the natural ecological process.

This may be only a localized effect, and the leaves up in the north country may do just fine. My offical fall foliage reports do not begin in earnest until about another month from now. Before then, I will be briefly commenting on how I see things coming along.

Another topic of interest, was this years hurricane season. Though not my specialty, hurricanes do catch my interest, right behind nor’easters and winter storms.

After years of below average development, it appears this hurricane season may pack a bit more of a punch than in years past.

I was stressing to family and friends, that due to global factors, such as a fading El Nino, very warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, and the Bermuda High pressure in a favorable position, folks on the east coast, including New England must be vigilant for a possible hurricane strike this fall.

This makes folks on the Cape nervous, as they recalled Hurricane Bob crossing the region back on August 19th, 1991. In fact, Bob was the last hurricane to srike land anywhere in New England.

Bob was a category 2 hurricane, bringing with it a ferocious storm surge up into Buzzard’s Bay, along with winds of up to 125 mph. As the storm cut across southeastern Massachusetts, areas along and to the southeast right quadrent of the storm received most of the damage, which included most of Cape Cod.

In the Boston area, I remember it being just a very windy, rainy day. We were on the more stable northwest quadrent, and the storm acted more like a summer nor’easter than anything else.

However, There were other storms in history that passed west of Boston. When this occurs, it places eastern Massachusetts in the dangerous eastern side of the storm.

Hurricanes such as Gloria in 1985, and the 1938 Hurricane took this path, resulting in quite a bit of damge across the region.

In fact, the 38′ Hurricane may of been the regions worst storm ever recorded, with catastrophic flooding and tree damge. Over 600 people died in that storm! Believe me, you would not want to see this type of a storm hit in today’s economy.

This is why I will be closely monitoring the tropics very carefully over the next month or two. If I see a threat to New England, I will be sure to let everyone know.

Now for your weekly summer beach and boating forecast. I am rating this week a 10 out of 10! Folks, it doesn’t get much better than this!

Expect deep blue skies and warm temperaturtes for the rest of today. It may be a bit too breezy for small boats out there, but for anything else, it will be gorgeous! Temperatures will be right about 80 degrees, which is close to average. A large high pressure area will be settling in overnight from Canada.

Because of the origin of this high pressure, you can expect a touch of fall weather tonight, with low temperatures mainly in the 50’s across rural areas, and close to 60 in Boston.

Tuesday is going to be another top 10 day of the year! With blue skies, light winds, and temperatures in the low 80’s, it will be a great day for both beach and boating.

As the high pressure sinks south of the region, expect warmer and more muggy weather to spread into southern New England for the period Wednesday through Friday. Expect temperatures to be in the middle to upper 80’s on Wednseday, then may be close to 90 both Thursday and Friday.

A cool front will corss the region later Friday, which may touch off a scattered afternoon or evening thunderstorm. Otherwise, it will remain mosly dry.

Right now, I am expecting both Saturday and Sunday to feature near perfect weather! Both days will feature drier conditions, along with mainly sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures should remain very warm, with highs mainly in the middle 80’s each day!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have both another beach and boating forecast, along with a tropical update. I will also let you know just how hot the weather may get for the final days of August.

In the meantime, enjoy the best summer ever…Mother Nature has been known to balance out weather patterns!

Thanks for reading!

Pete