Less Muggy…Still Very Warm!! 8/15/16

Hello! It was a very changeable weekend of weather here in southern New England! After a brutally hot day Friday, winds shifted to the northeast on Saturday, bringing with it a sudden change to cooler air. The wind shifted to west again on Sunday, and though not as hot as Friday, still proved to be a very hot day in its own right.

Getting back to Friday for a brief moment. Yes, this was clearly the hottest day of the summer so far. In fact, with a high temperature of 98 degrees, and a heat index of 107, this prompted the NWS to issue an excessive heat warning!

With temperatures like that, I do believe that we experienced the hottest day of the entire summer! Oh, it will get hot again. Sunday reached 95 all over again, but it wasn’t quite as intense as Friday.

Am I 100% sure about this statement? No, not quite. Just last year, I believe the temperature reached 97 degrees in September! As I mentioned in last weeks post, we are not done with summer this year…not by a long shot!

Typically, our hottest time of the year runs from about July 1st, to approximately August 15th, which happens to be today! Does this mean the temperatures are going to begin to get cold now?

No, it normally doesn’t work this way. Just last year, average temperature trends continued to climb the deeper we moved into late summer and early fall.

I believe that had a lot to do with the strengthening El Nino last summer. This altered the jet stream, pumping unseasonably warm air up from southern latitudes, towards New England.

This, in conjunction with abnormally warm ocean temperatures, kept the cold air locked up at the North Pole for the better part of winter.

With the weather patters setting up the way they are, I can certainly see the warm weather sticking around deep into September once again.

This has certainly been the trend over the last several years. Summer has started off slow, only to pick up steam the deeper we go into the season, with the warm temperatures extending deep into the fall.

In fact, last November turned out to be one of Boston’s warmest November’s on record. Overall, last fall was certainly one of the warmest autumn’s on record.

Remember Christmas last year? Playing outside after dinner, basking in the 70 degree temperatures! Remarkable!

Reviewing the latest long range maps this morning, it’s looking more and more likely that yet another warm fall is on the way for New England. I’m not sure quite yet whether it will be as warm as last fall, but this is what the models are saying.

This is partly due to the abnormally warm ocean temperatures not only in the Pacific, but also the Atlantic Ocean as well. With the oceans being so warm, it will take longer for places like eastern New England to cool off this fall.

Remember, due to latent cooling, it takes longer for the ocean to cool in respect to the land in the fall. this means the ocean will keep places like Boston and Cape Cod warmer deeper into the fall.

It’s very preliminary, but should this warm pattern continue, another mild winter could be in store for southern New England this year. Which, I’m sure many, won’t mind at all!

It’s a fine balance. El Nino should not be a player this upcoming winter. Instead, a weak La Nina (colder than normal water in the Pacific) or even borderline neutral conditions (neither warm or cold) looks to be on tap for us.

Reviewing the computer models, I would lean towards a weak La Nina. In years past, most weak La Nina’s have brought very little snow to Boston. Stubborn ridging (warm + dry air)  in the southeast U.S. prevents nor’easters from developing, leading to weak storms crossing the region from the northwest.

A weakening + PDO (warm water off British Columbia coast)  is further evidence that it looks to be cold northwest and warm southeast in the U.S. this winter. It’s still very early, and these are only preliminary thoughts. I will be discussing more about our autumn as we head towards September.

Shifting subjects, a friend of mine asked me a very good question this past weekend about the dew point. Everybody is interested in the dew point. And for good reason! What exactly is the dew point temperature? And why is it so important?

In the summer months, the dew point temperature becomes a very important tool in people’s comfort level. When looking at comfort levels, and how we feel, folks should be looking at the dew point temperature, and not the relative humidity.

The dew point is the amount of water vapor in the air which slows the evaporation of perspiration from us, thus keeping us from cooling off, making us feel sticky and uncomfortable!

This is why you see meteorologists on the news using the comfort scale. Dew point temperatures of 50 degrees and below is nice dry invigorating air! Between 50 and 60 is a bit more moist, but tolerable for many folks. Dew points between 60 and 70 starts to become uncomforatble, especially when you get closer to the 70. Anything above 70 and it’s oppressive and very sticky!

When we measure the heat index, we combine the dew point temperature, along with the air temperature, to get an index on how hot it feels outside. Boston’s highest dew point ever recorded was 79 degrees back in 2001! YUCK!

This measure is similar to the wind chills we experience in the winter, when the air temperature combines with gusty winds that make it feel colder than what it actually is.

The wind chill actually pulls moisture away from the body, leaving us susceptible to colder feeling temperatures. We could use some of that here in the summer!!

What happened to all of the rain this weekend?? If you listened to many meteorologists, you would of thought that we would of had to build an ark! In all fairness, it did rain. In some areas a lot!

However, as I mentioned last week, this looked like to be more of a afternoon summer time shower or thunderstorm set up. Keeping with the theme of the summer, coastal Massachusetts, specifically Boston was robbed of any significant rains.

We are in a severe drought, and dry soil levels and certain atmospheric conditions are preventing heavy rain storms from hitting our area.

In fact, this summer is ranking as the driest summer on record in Boston, to this point! Looking at the extended computer models, I don’t see any widespread rains to alter this outcome. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow, then something at the very end of August.

With that being said, you only need one heavy thunderstorm to cross the observation site to prevent this from happening. Some locations received between 3 and 5″ of rain over the weekend, just from thunderstorms!

Right now, I would give it a 50% chance that this will go down as the driest summer on record here in Boston. Which means that we will of received less than 3.97″ of rain…for the entire summer!

Now for your weekly summer outdoor beach & boating forecast. I am giving this week a solid 8 out of 10. In fact, with the less muggy air moving in, some may consider this to be the best week of the summer!

Expect another winner beach and boating day today! Abundant sunshine, some puffy fair weather clouds, and very warm temperatures! Expect temperatures to range between 85 and 90 across the region.

Even if we get a light sea breeze, it will only knock the temperatures down a few degrees. This will only make it all the more comfortable at the beach!

In addition, dew point temperatures will be lower today, ranging in the mid 60’s. Still a bit muggy, but better than the mid 70’s!

Expect warm and dry weather overnight, with lows dropping only into the mid 70’s across urban areas, maybe upper 60’s in the countryside.

Tuesday will feature a bit of an uptick in humidity. It will feature some morning sun, but watch for rapidly building cumulus clouds, which could yield to some thunderstorms rolling across the area from late morning on.

The best chance for these storms is from the Mass. Pike region northward tomorrow. This includes Boston. keep an eye to the sky, as some of these storms could reach severe criteria. Not the best beach & boating days, but you might be able to go down the Cape?

Expect warm and muggy conditions for Tuesday night. A front crossing the region may produce more showers and thunderstorms. Again, this is not widespread, but if you get one, consider your community lucky!

Any early morning clouds or showers should move out early Wednesday. The rest of the day should feature a mixture of sun and clouds with a bit of a breeze.

It will turn noticeably drier during the day, with lowering dew points! Temperatures should still be warm, with highs mainly in the lower 80s’.

Expect fantastic weather conditions for the period of Thursday through Sunday! The only exception would be for a chance of a shower across the interior on Thursday.

Otherwise, expect warm temperatures, with highs in the 80’s, and very comfortable dew point readings, mainly in the 55 to 60 degree range. This will be a great period for beach and boating activity.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing in greater detail, our hurricane season. This is important, as there are indications that the Atlantic hurricane season may suddenly blossom over the next month.

With the patterns the way they are, I would not be surprised if we are threatened with a hurricane this fall here in New England! I will also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy this beautiful weather, New England has a reputation to change its weather in a minute!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Perseids! Another Heat Wave! 8/8/16

Hello, everyone! All in all, it was a beautiful mid summer’s weekend across much of New England. Saturday became a bit on the hot side, but nothing too extreme.

Late afternoon thunderstorms popped up across parts of the region, especially south of the Mass Pike. These storms fizzled as they headed towards the Cape.

Sunday certainly turned into a chamber of commerce “top 10” day, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, low humidity, and very warm temperatures. I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy our beautiful summer weather!

I was able to break away from the hustle and bustle and spend a day at my friends place down in Chatham, Ma. Too bad, we saw no sharks!

However, it was a spectacular day for doing anything close to the ocean. We spent most of the day close to the beach. If you have never been, I highly recommend taking a trip to the Monomoy National Wildlife Refuge in Chatham.

Not only is this a migratory path for thousands of birds and wildlife, they also launch weather balloons from an official NOAA weather station here!

Add to all this spectacular views of the esturary and the open Atlantic Ocean, makes this place a great spot to see nature at its best!

Though Chatham’s winters are milder than the rest of New England, my friend and I agreed that if you enjoy being in a good storm, there’s not many places like being in Chatham. With its location being exposed to the southeast elbow of the Cape, storms can hit from many different directions.

From fierce blizzards in the wintertime, to hurricanes and tropical storms in the fall, Chatham is no stranger to being battered by Mother Nature’s wrath.

With that being said, because Chatham’s location being closer to the ocean and Gulf Stream, it’s climate is much milder than its latitude would leave you to believe. Some say that it’s climate is similar to locations 500 miles further south down the coast!

When leaving the Cape heading north and northwest, the climate gradient rapidly changes to that of more northern climates of cold winters, and warm to hot summers in southern New England. In northern New England, it’s warm summers, and cold winters.

Needless to say, no matter where you are in New England, weather changes quite frequently. As Mark Twain once said about New England weather, “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a minute!”

It’s not that weather doesn’t change often in some other parts of the world. It does, probably in even more extereme measures. However, because New England’s location, we are susceptible to more rapid changes than many other regions.

With our location being exactly half way between the Equator and North Pole, the Atlantic Ocean to our east, Canada to our north and northwest, warm Gulf Stream to our southeast, it seems like the weather can never really make up its mind exactly which climate it wants to be!

What about our current climate? Well, so far, I would classify this summer to be very warm & extremely dry. After this week, it could turn into a hot & dry summer. If you havn’t heard, we have our second heat wave on the way for later on this week!

Then again, there is promise for an increase in thunderstorm activity the deeper we go into the week. This could bring some much needed releief to drought stricken areas of eastern Massachusetts and southeast New Hampshire.

This is very tricky! Looking at the latest computer models, they are showing some areas of heavy precipitation crossing the region later this week, and into the weekend.

Does this mean everyone will get a soaking rain, and will be a total washout? I don’t believe so.

This looks more like a very hot pattern, with pulse type afternoon and evening storms. If you are fortunate enough to be the beneficiary of some of these downpours, it may ofter some temporary relief, in a otherwise dry pattern.

However, this has been the case most of the summer, why should we believe that this time will be any different?

This is a very good question. I believe there is a slight shift to the pattern, which may bring some beneficial downpours to a more widespread area this time around. The difference lies in the location of summer pressure region.

This time of year, the Bermuda High begins to become more of an influence of our weather here along the east coast. Because winds begin to blow more from the south, this can be the change in airmass that we need here in New England.

Moisture in Florida, may be captured by weak steering currents, and be directed towards New England. Fingers crossed!

Of course, with the severe drought and very dry soil levels, there’s always a chance much of this moisture dries up before it reaches our area?

We loved the heat earlier in the summer. However, with the Bermuda High beginning to strengthen, we will now introduce very humid condtions along with the heat. This will act as two things on our daily weather.

First, it will make it feel oppressively hot, with higher dew points. Second, it will introduce more moisture in the air, which may help contribute heavier downpours to our region.

With the increase in heat this week, you will notice the Cicada bugs beginning to buzz in full force! You may have wondered just where that buzzing noise is coming from up in the trees this time of year!

The answer lies in a rather gruesome looking, large bug, which makes a buzzing noise by vibrating large tymbals rapidly.* There are many types of Cicadas. The ones we hear are annual Cicadas, which only start to buzz when temperatures warm up to above 85 degrees.

How about our hurricane season? Our fifth named storm became Hurricane Earl at the end of last week. This storm strengthened into a category 1 before making landfall over Belize. It then continued moving due west over Mexico, only to re-emerge out in the Pacific Ocean as a tropical depression!

Yes, it’s been a fairly quiet season so far. But we should not let our gaurd down! Hurricane season is only now ramping up. In fact, the peak of the season does not occur until September 10th. Remember, it’s not how many storms that form. It only takes one storm to result in catastrophic damage to any given region.

There are currently no threats to New England at this time. However, if the Bermuda High positions itself in the right location, it may help steer tropical storms towards New England later in the summer.

At this point, leftover rainfall from any tropical storm would be very beneficial..we can do without the destructive winds. I will monitor this potential for everyone as we move deeper into the season.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer beach & boating forecast. I will rate this week a solid 8 out of 10. Expect beautiful beach & boating weather for the rest of today, and tomorrow, for that matter.

Temperatures will be very warm, but not hot just yet, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80’s, and lows in the 60’s. This is a bit above average for this time of year.

We have a major celestial event occurring this week! The annual Perseid Meteor Shower will take place this week, and peek on August 11th and 12th!

This year, is expected to be one of the best meteor showers in over 10 years! The reason? Astronomers say it’s because we are entering a rich debris field from a comet that passed by a thousand years ago.

This could create quite a spectacle! I hope skies will be clear enough. To enjoy the show, seek out a dark location, away from city lights. I always found a golf course a good place to view them. Here in Boston, Millennium Park would be a good location here in West Roxbury, if the gates stay open!

Of course, if you live in the suburbs or on the beach,  just look up! I gaurantee you see some streaking meteors!

Now for the period Wednesday through Sunday. Expect heat and humidity to be on the increase big time during this period. In fact, I am expecting the temperature to be in the 90’s for much of this period, which will officially qualify it for our second heat wave this summer.

The only way we may not reach this, is if we have a lot of clouds from thunderstorms or showers. If this does hapeen, it may keep temperatures below 90 for a day or two. It’s too difficult to forecast this possibility at this point.

If we reach our maximum potential, some readings could easily reach the mid to upper 90’s.  Keep in mind, this heat is going to come with some oppressive levels of humidity. Which means it will feel very muggy, whether we get showers or not.

In addition to the heat, moisture will also be on the increase. There is a chance for some afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Thursday, then again over the weekend. These could happen at any point, but the late afternoon is most likely.

Most days should feature good beach and boating weather. However, please keep an eye to the sky and to the latest forecast in situations like this. The last place you want to be when a storm blows in, is out in the ocean!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know just how long the hot weather is going to last for. I will also have an update on the severe drought affecting the region.

Hopefully, there will be some improvement after this week. I will also have a new beach and boating forecast for everyone!

In the meantime, Let’s hope for the best of both worlds this week. Rain for our drought, and clear skies for the meteors! Enjoy!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

*Some information for Cicada bugs derived from Wikipedia

Drought 2016: Haves & Have Nots! 8/1/16

Wow…we’re is the time going? We’re into August, already! Meteorologically speaking, summer is already two thirds of the way over!

Does this mean summer is over? Nope, not by a long shot! Astronomically speaking, we’re only about exactly half way through summer.

I understand why meteorologists break up the seasons into quarters, but I prefer following Mother Nature’s calander. She’s the boss, after all!

Hello, all! I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend. The weather depended on where you were, and who you asked.

Many enjoyed the cooler temperatures…especially here in eastern Massachusetts, where a six day heatwave came to a crashing end last Wednesday.

Oh, it hit 90 again on Thursday, but that paled in comparison to the stifling heat felt here on Tuesday.

Believe it or not, some parts of Connecticut actually kept rolling on in the heatwave, with some areas recording a whopping 10 days of 90 degree days in a row!

What about all the talk about flooding rains hitting the area on Friday? Then again Saturday night and Sunday? As late as Thursday evening forecasts, computer models were calling for between 2 and 3″ of rain to soak the Boston area on Friday.

The final outcome? Friday started off with a very light rain falling, which then proceeded to dwindle to sprinkes, then completely end around 11 am. By one o’clock, the sun was out, and we enjoyed a splendid summer afternoon!

How about this past Saturday night and Sunday? Another unusual type of storm for this time of year, was slowly spinning from upstate N.Y. to just south of New England.

This storm fed off a significant temperature difference, from our heat wave of last week, to cooler, moist air seeping down from the north and northeast.

The result? Torrential flooding rains not too far from Boston! Western New England, and New York City were the benefactors from this storm sysytem.

In fact, some areas around New York City received close to 10″ of rain last evening! Even parts of the south shore of Boston received a freak slow moving deluge on Saturday afternoon. Boston…nothing!

Severe drought conditions, which were limited to coastal New Hampshire, and the north shore of Boston, has now sank south to include the city of Boston and immediate surrounding areas.

Had these storms hit Boston as forecasted, it would of made a significant dent in this drought. It’s easy to point fingers and blame the computer models, or the meteorologists…if it were only that easy!

I’m not sure if the general public realize just how difficult of a job, being a meteorologist is! As perfect as Mother Nature is, trying to predict what she’s going to do next can be like throwing a dart while wearing a blind fold!

Yes, the computer models showed a good soaking for Boston. However, at the last second, it shifted south of Boston, leaving us with very little rainfall here in the city. In a way, this behaved very much like a winter storm. We all know how tricky those can be to forecast!

Everybody remembers when meteorologists are wrong, but they forget the 85% of the time when they get the forecast correct! It’s true, it’s not an exact science. Mother Nature is always one step ahead of the computer models and forecasters.

People might say, they get paid a lot of money for being wrong! Folks, this is only true for the lucky few that make it to major networks on t.v.

For the rest of them, it’s not like they get paid nothing, but for the work they do, saving lives,  giving high pressured forecasts for airlines and general public, it’s not much.

As for the amateur meteorologists, forget about it! These folks are some of the most passionate people in any field! And most don’t get paid for it. Talking about dedication!

Many of these meteorologists do it for their passion for the weather. They could probably make much more money beeing an engineer, or computer scientist.

One of these people was Dave Shwartz, a meteorologist who worked for The Weather Cannel for 22 years, who lost his battle to cancer over the weekend.

I remember Dave when he first started. He was different than many others. Dave had the ability to bring a good sense of humor, be serious when need be, and express his passion about the weather, all in one shift. He will be sorely missed in the weather community.

So what’s the latest with our drought? Yes, as mentioned earlier, Boston is now included in severe drought conditions. Remember, this is not just because Boston is running a 8″ deficit for the year. This could easily get wiped out with one tropical storm.

This rating is more because of the cumulative years of below normal precipitation. If you add up the past few years, Boston is actually running a 15 to 20″ deficit of preciptitaion.

This is placing a higher than normal stress level on lawns, trees and gardens. Some say drought begets drought. After this weekend, I would have to say that there’s some merit to that statement!

For sure, there’s meteorological explanation for why it’s not raining. NWS Taunton explained it very well over the weekend. An area of strong thunderstorms, with rising air, developed in the ocean south of New England.

This robbed the moisture that was moving into Boston. This was due to sinking air, north of this area, thus, drying out the atmsophere. Call it bad luck, timing…or drought begets drought!

It does appear as if there is a dry dome over our area. As storms move towards us, it either evaporates, or splits with one area going north, and another south.

Looking forward to our autumn, I’m afraid the severe drought is going to have an adverse affect on our upcoming fall foliage season. If the drought continues, stressed trees will begin turning color, then drop their leaves later in September.

This does not mean a bad winter is on the way. That will be addressed as we move deeper into fall. It merely means the trees are not getting enough water to supply nutrients to the leaves. It will be interesting to see how the drought affects vegetation across the area this fall.

Speaking of drought, boy was July a hot & dry month! Boston recorded 12 days of 90 degree + temperatures. Boston now has 13 ninety degree days so far this summer! It was also very dry. Boston only recorded .87 hundreths of an inch of rain, for the entire month!

How is August shaping up? Right now, long range outlooks seem to want to continue the dry theme of the summer. Will it be as hot & dry as July? I don’t believe so, at this point. In addition, tropical cyclones will be on the increase this month.

This means New England has the opportunity to benefit from tropical moisture surging up the coast at some point. Computer models continue to forecast dry conditions for New England. But they also are notorious for having difficulty picking up moisture from tropical storms.

I am expecting more rain than July this month, but still below average as a whole (that’s not a tough forecast)! I am also expecting it to be another warmer than normal month here in Boston. Not as hot as July, but I still am expecting between 4 to 7 days of 90 degree temperatures this month, which is about average.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. It will be a shaky start, but a very strong finish.

Look for mainly cloudy weather for the rest of today. However, don’t be surprised to see some sun, too! It will be a bit on the cool side, with highs mainly in the 70’s. Not a great beach day, but should not be too bad for boating. Expect more clouds, areas of fog and drizzle tonight, as winds continue to blow in off of the ocean.

Tuesday will start off a bit on the damp and cloudy side. As winds turn more north, skies may try to clear during the afternoon, especially around Boston area, points north. The afternoon may turn out just fine for the beach.

Right now, I am expecting sunny and warmer weather to settle into the region for Wednesday through Friday. There may be some early morning fog down the Cape.

Temperatures should mainly be in the low 80’s Wednesday, mid 80’s Thursday, and possibly close to 90 on Friday. Looks like a great few days for beach and boating alike!

A slow moving cold front will be crossing the area later Friday through Saturday. It’s not looking like a washout at this point. However, typical scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible during this period. I would not cancel any plans at this point.

If the front continue to press offshore, a very pleasant Sunday would be the result, with sunny skies, and temperatures in the low to mid 80’s. Lingering clouds on the Cape could be an issue for beach goers?

Well, that’s about it for now! I was going to talk about the Cicada bugs, but they have really quieted down. Last weekend down the Cape, they were really buzzing!

Next week, I will talk about the Cicada’s, also have an update on the severe drought. I will also have an important tropical update, as Earl may be developing down in the southern Caribbean!

In the meantime, whether you’re in the haves, or the have nots, remember, Mother Nature is in charge, and there’s always a reason for everything!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Heat Wave Continues…Then A Break? 7/25/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice weekend! Our current heat wave, which began last Thursday, is about to turn it up a notch! After an awfully hot Friday, where the temperature reached a scorching 97 degrees in Boston, temperatures cooled off slightly over the weekend. Saturday was still hot, but featured some late afternoon thunderstorms across the region.

With the hot airmass in place, some of these storms were quite fierce, with ominous black clouds, vivid lightning, and torrential rainfall. I happened to be on Old Silver Beach in Falmouth, Ma. that evening, and witnessed the storm crossing Buzzards Bay straight towards us! The picture I posted today with the post, came from the storm cutting across the bay Saturday evening!

The storms were not widespread enough to eradicate the drought. However, communities that were hit by them, brought beneficial rain, to an otherwise parched landscape.

Not only was the water welcome, but they also cooled off the airmass, offering some natural air conditioning, supplied by Mother Nature! If you didn’t receive a storm, a slight air mass change made yesterday more tolerabe across the region. In fact, I would of called it a “top ten” day across much of New England!

I can tell you firsthand, it was a spectacular mid summer day across much  the  New England region! I’m spending a couple days down in Falmouth, and it was certainly a fantastic day down here yesterday! After some torrential downpours on Saturday evening, the weather could not of been any better yesterday.

These storms were part of a weak disturbance moving through the region later on Saturday. In an airmass like this, it doesn’t take much to trigger some thunderstorms.

This disturbance was part of a subtle wind shift, which brought slightly cooler and drier air in yesterday. Add some decorative cirrus clouds, and you had picture perfect day. I hope everyone enjoyed it!

Yesterday was a very enjoyable day for me. After spending a few hours on the beach, I had the opportunity to play in a neighborhood golf tournament! I havn’t played golf in years, but I found it very relaxing! It’s a sport that the whole family can enjoy! Even the young kids!

What about our heat wave? With Boston reaching 90 degrees yesterday, the heat wave will now enter its 5th day in a row today! Yesterday was a bit of surprise, as I thought a light seabreeze would prevent Boston from reaching it.

This is important, with the heat expected to continue into at least tomorrow, we still have a shot at cracking into a lofty list of top ten heat waves ever recorded in Boston.

What is the longest heat wave ever recorded in Boston, you ask? Way back in July, 1912 Boston had a streek of 9 ninety degree days in a row! I’m actually somewhat surprised it isn’t a bit longer than that. Like all records, I believe this will be broken some period in the near future. I don’t believe it will be this week, however!

Remember, these numbers are for Boston. As is most always the case, Boston’s suburbs surrounding the city is hotter, and for longer. I’m sure some observers has had 2 weeks of 90 degree days in a row, at some point. Same goes in the winter, it’s most always colder in outlying communities.

The reason is because the observation site for Boston is at Logan Airport. However, this was not always the case! Some folks are surprised to learn that Boston’s official weather observation site was a couple miles away in Boston Common.

Even with this short distance, it does make a difference with such things as temperature readings, and snowfall data. With Logan being right on the water, in most cases it’s always cooler in the summer, and warmer in the winter, than areas further inland.

In addition, other factors keep us from baking for too long. Boston’s latitude and proximity to the ocean always means our weather is changing.

We are just far enough north so intense heat doesn’t last too long, in any given summer. Sea breezes off the ocean, cool fronts from Canada, and periods of rainfall, all seem to be lurking close by at any given time.

With all that being said, Boston and much of the eastern seaboard may really cook today! In fact, with a strengthening southwest wind, there is a shot Boston sees a record high temperature today! The record is 96 degrees, which I believe is definitely within reach!

In the grand scheme of things, this makes perfect sense. On average, the hottest day of the year is July 22nd. Of course, we know it can still get awfully hot in August, even in September.

That’s why I say the hottest period of the year here in Boston, runs from July 1st through August 15th. So we still have several more weeks of hot weather to go through!

Looking at the long range guidance, many will be very happy to hear that summer is not going away anytime soon! I am expecting very warm to hot weather to continue well into August this year!

Many folks have been asking me about the drought. Yes, summer thunderstorms have helped in some communities. However, we have still not received any widespread appreciable rainfall in months in many areas. Hardest hit areas continue to be areas just north and northwest of Boston.

According to the latest drought monitor, the dry conditions have actually increased across sountern New England. If no rain falls soon, Boston could soon be included in severe drought conditions. Again, this is not because of the deficit from this year. This is a cumulative effect dating back several years now.

Just how serious is this becoming? I would say in areas north of Boston, it’s very serious. Lack of rainfall has ruined crops, depleted wells, and burnt out lawns. On a economic standpoint, the drought could have a negative impact on New England’s fall foliage season.

All this excessive dry weather is placing many trees under stress. Without an adequate supply of water, leaves will prematurely turn yellow or brown, then fall of the trees. While driving up to N.H. a couple weeks ago, I noticed many trees on the side of the highway already without leaves!

What is the longterm outlook for our area? It’s difficult to say at this point. In general, I would say the drought is going to continue as we head into the fall.

However, there’s always more chances of heavy thundershowers, to offer some relief. Some of which is already happening. In addition, as we get deeper into the summer, tropical storm activity will be on the increase along the east coast. It would only take one tropical storm loaded with moisture to eraticate the drought.

Beyond that, we’d be looking at winter to deliver the goods. Right now, it’s still too early to tell what kind of winter we are going to have here in New England.

Much is dependent on water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. If it stays warm, or a positive PDO, and the La Nina remains weak or neutral, many areas of New England could see significant winter.

However, if the PDO suddenly gets cold (cold water in the Gulf of Alaska), and the La Nina strengthens (cold water off South America), then a dry, mild winter would most likely be the outcome. As I collaberate with my weather friend Remy, we will continue to closely monitor these possibilities as we head deeper into the fall!

Now, time for your weekly outdoor beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. I am still expecting a few great beach days this week!

Expect very hot weather to continue for both today and tomorrow. A strengthening southwest wind will mean choppy waters on the south side of New England…so boaters take caution.

If you are planning on going to the beach or do some boating, please keep an eye to the sky, as there may be some late afternoon and evening thunderstorms moving in.

Much like last Monday, some of these storms could be severe, with straightline winds, and possible microbursts. As for temperatures, this is bit tricky.

Some weather outlets are calling for temperatures to remain below 90 today. I’m not buying this forecast. I will believe Boston will sky rocket up to 94 degrees on the low end, to 97 degrees on the high end.

As mentioned earlier, if we go beyond 96 degrees, it will establish a new record for the date. Expect another hot day on tap for tomorrow, similar to today.

While sitting here writing my post here on the Cape, it feels much warmer already today compared to yesterday.

Wednesday is another tricky day. Afternoon seabreezes may cool off the coast? If so, temperatures may drop into the 80’s, and break the heat wave at 6 days. Otherwise, it looks like another fine day. A front may approach the area on Thursday, then may stall just south of us for the rest of the week and into next weekend.

This is where it gets very tricky! First, temperatures should be cooler during this period. Most likely remaining below 90. Second, with the front close by, this may be a focul point of some inclement weather. Where and when is almost impossible to determine at this point.

If we’re lucky, there may be some showers and thunderstorms later Thursday and into Friday. If the front pushes off the coast far enough, it may leave us with a drier, somewhat cooler weekend.

If I were to pick a day right now, I would Saturday looks to be the safest day. More showers could move back in sometime on Sunday, but that’s not a sure bet right now. This forecast is subject to change. Please tune in to local forecasters with updates regarding this weekend!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the month of July, and have my new August outlook for planning purposes.

I will also be looking at how our tropical season is moving along. So far, not much is happening…but that can change quickly!

I also want to talk to you about those buzzing noises you here from the trees this time of year! In the meantime, enjoy the summer weather, changes will come around soon enough!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Hot…A Break…Then A Heat Wave! 7/18/16

Hello, everyone! I hope you had the opportunity get outside and enjoy the summery weekend! It was truly a great beach weekend across much of the region! For folks who summer at lakes, it was also a great weekend for that too!

I don’t want to forget hikers and campers. I knew several friends that were hiking the White Mountains this weekend. The weather could not of been any better for these activities!

As for myself, I continue to battle the ongoing home renovation project. If I skip town every time the weather is good, the project will never be completed. In life, we occasionally must make sacrafices.

This is certainly one of those times for me. I have some fun short trips planned for latter in the summer, which I’ll be looking forward to sharing with everyone!

As for our weather, I was much more pleased with the forecast put forth, for last week. It worked out just about as planned. After a shaky start, summer really began settling into the region. In fact, Boston hit 90 degrees 3 times, just last week alone.

After today, I believe we will have hit 90 degrees for the sixth time this summer. And if you thought that was hot, you aint seen nothing yet, as they say in show business!

After a sluggish start, the real summer pattern is settling in across much of the United States…and it’s HOT! As forecasted, the 90 degree days have been , and are going to continue to pile up in Boston over the next 10 days.

In fact, I would not be surprised if Boston adds another 4 to 7  ninety degree days before the month is through.

A combination of dry soil levels, and seasonal shifts has finally allowed summer warmth to reach into New England.

Has it been a hot summer, so far? No, so far, it has not. In fact, you could make an argument that it’s actually been a bit cool for the first half. Real hot summers start early, and finish late. But what constitutes a hot summer, and one that’s just typical?

As I have mentioned before, I rate how hot summers are by how many 90 degree days we experience. Remember, my summer forecast was to be somewhat hotter than normal, but not a record setter!

In an average summer, Boston reaches 90 degrees about 14 times. Despite its slow start, last summer turned out to be as close to a normal summer as one would see around here. It was definitely a back ended summer, with hot weather extending well into September.

A real scorcher of a summer was back in 1983. This was one of the hottest summers ever recorded in Boston, when temperatures reached 90 degrees some 33 times!

Remember, the official weather observation site for Boston is at Logan Airport, which happens to be right on the water.

Back in 2010 was another hot one! Boston reached 90 degrees a whopping 25 times that year. That’s not the whole story. I remember that year to have particularly hot weather in the interior of New England. Some communities set back from the coast had well over 40 days of 90 degree days!

What about this summer? As I mentioned in my last post, I’m going to stick with my original forecast of between 15 and 20 ninety degree days this summer, when all is said and done. Which, by the way, may once again extend well into September this year. By this time next week, we may already be flirting with 10 of them!

I was chatting with my good weather buddy, Remy, about the current summer pattern, and where we are going from here. He brought up some very good observations to keep in mind, as we move forward.

Remy’s school of thought is that moisture will be on the increase over the next couple weeks around here. No doubt, rainfall and clouds will keep temperatures from getting too hot around these parts.

In addition, with cooler than average ocean temperatures off our coast, we are susceptible to back door cold fronts from the ocean, cooling off coastal areas below the 90 degree threshold.

He also mentioned about the persistant blocking over Greenland playing a role by deflecting prolonged heat out of New England this summer.

It’s not that he doesn’t think it’s going to get hot. He does agree with my summer forecast, it’s just that he doesn’t see any prolonged heat waves for eastern New England.

Points well taken. I don’t think a record hot summer is coming, or even remotely close to that. However, there are a couple things that concern me moving forward.

First, is this unusually dry weather we’ve been experiencing, here in New England. I tweeted this out last week,  Remy did some research, and actually traced this dry cycle we’ve been experiencing to way back to 2005!

It’s true, since 2005, more years than not have finished with below average precipitation. You ask what about all the snow a couple years ago?

Remember, that snow was very low density. Meaning it was bitterly cold when it snowed, and the snow had very little water content to it. So not as much precipitation fell as you might of thought.

Last winter had some bouts of heavy precipitation, but nothing extreme. Then came the spring, where we have had below average precipitaion now starting from March.

When a pattern like this settles in, you start dealing with feedback issues. It’s the same in winter, when snow, can actually bring colder patterns and even more snow.

It’s been dry for so many months now, the dry soil levels, is feeding upon itself, and keeping storms away for our region. This is especially true in the Merrimack Valley, just northwest of Boston, extending into southeast coastal New Hampshire.

In fact, I was chatting with my brother in-law the other day, and he was mentioning to me how aggressive the squirrels have become around his home in coastal New Hampshire. He said that he has never seen anything like it.

Squirrels, crawling all over peoples homes, trying to gain access inside! I mentioned that it may have something to do with the extreme dry conditions in the area, and lack of food. Let’s hope it doesn’t get to that level down here in Boston!

Getting back to the weather, I believe the dry soil levels are going to promote at least a couple heat waves, as well as some very hot temperatures in our area. Not only are the soil levels extremely dry, but the hot weather is coming right at the hottest period of the year.

A huge bubble of hot weather is building across the middle of the country this week. This hot weather is going to spread towards southern New England this weekend. The models are showing showers and thunderstorms to cool us off later Saturday and into Sunday.

But I wonder if these storms are going to materialize. Models have been forecasting storms all summer for eastern Massachusetts, only to dry up as they head east.

Regardless, get ready for what I believe will become our first heat wave of the summer. This heat will begin on Friday, peak on Saturday with some very hot temperatures, and still I believe we still reach 90 on Sunday. If we reach 90 on three days in a row, it will be classified as an official heat wave.

Thereafter, we may get another brief break the start of next week, before more hot weather arrives later in the week.

Before I get to the forecast, Remy and I also discussed about the very interesting patterns coming up this fall heading into winter. Latest computer models are backing off the strength of the La Nina.

This makes sense, considering all the leftover heat from El Nino, and the warmer than normal Pacific Ocean. Many times, there is a lag period for the earth the oceans to cool off after such an event.

There is also quite a bit of new research going on right now on solar impacts on development of El Nino and La Nina, and the relationship to our oceans.

This could have major implications on our upcoming winter. I will be discussing more about these patterns as move move closer to September.

Now for your weekly summer beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Concerns about very hot temperatures and thunderstorms keep the rating tempered, somewhat.

Expect a hot afternoon, with temperatures warming up to 92 degrees in Boston. If you are at the beach, please be aware of a line of thunderstorms marching across the state between 4 and 7 pm.

Some of these storms could be severe, with vivid lightning, thunder, and heavy downpours. So be prepared to take shelter. If you are boating, don’t take a chance, start heading into shore by 2 pm! Keep an eye to the sky!

Storms will move through the area, and skies will begin to clear by 8 pm. Thereafter, expect a more comfortable night, with drier levels of humidity, and lows mainly in the 60’s.

After some early fog on the Cape, expect very warm temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the mid 80’s. It will be a very good beach and boating day, overall.

Fair weather will continue tomorrow night, with comfortable levels of humidity, and clear skies. In fact, temperatures may cool to the 50’s across the suburbs. Open the windows, it will be very refreshing!

Wednesday may be the pick of the week. There will be a refreshing sea breeze along the coast. If you don’t mind very comfortable temperatures with low levels of humidity, this will be the day for you! Temperatures should be held in check with the sea breeze to between 75 and 80.

Fair and cool weather will continue Wednseday night. Lows once again will be in the 50’s across rural areas, to low 60’s in urban locations.

As winds begin to turn southwest on Thursday, expect a change in the air mass. It will turn warmer across much of the region, except down on the Cape, where it will remain in the 70’s with breezy conditions. It still may be a good beach day, but winds will become a bit gusty, especially along south coast beaches. A chop will also be developing, so  be advised boaters.

Expect heat wave conditions to build into southern New England for the period of Friday through Sunday. Expect temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90’s on Friday. I am not expecting much convection on Friday, but there’s always a chance in heat like that.

Saturday may turn into the hottest day of the summer! Right now, I am expecting heat advisories to be in place along the I95 corridor. With temperatures between 95 and 100 degrees, and a heat index of between 100 and 105, it could turn into a dangerous day for elderly, young kids, and pets! Don’t forget to check in with them, and keep everyone cool and comfortable!

A cold front will be approaching from the northwest during the day. With this type of heat, there’s a chance of more severe weather across the region. Please listen to local NWS folks, or local media outlets for updates on this possibility.

The front should clear the coast on Sunday. This would mean temperatures will be cooler. However, I’m still expecting temperatures to reach the low 90’s across eastern Massachusetts, including the beaches.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about the forecast for the second half of summer. What’s going on with hurricane season?

I will also have a new beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the hot weather, 6 months from now we’ll be complaing that it’s too cold!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Will Real Summer…Please Show Up! 7/11/16

Hello, everyone! I hope everyone had a great 4th of July holiday! Hard to believe it was just last Monday. It feels like an eternity ago. After the stellar holiday weekend, the weather has left little to be desired for. In fact, many would call it plain crummy.

The week began with some rain the morning after the 4th. Blistering heat surged into the area on Wednesday, then an unusually cold and damp stretch of weather for this time of the year settled in from Thursday through Sunday.

Another thing that left little to be desired for, was my forecast for last week. After hitting it out of the ball park for the 4th, last weeks forecast was a complete disaster. It was easily my worst forecast since I began writing my blog 6 years ago.

Some may say, Pete, no big deal, everybody got it wrong. This may be true, but it’s no excuse to me. Many are very kind with their support. But I would like to hold myself accountable for when I make a good forecast, and when I miss the mark.

This was a very important vacation week for many folks. Many people work hard all year, and were looking forward to spending time with family at area beaches, not huddled inside with a warm blanket, playing games and drinking hot coco.

I’ll admit, last weekend was a whirlwind. I definitely got caught up in the festive activities on the 4th, and did not study the weather maps carefully enough. Making a forecast is definitely something you can’t wing it! And boy, did Mother Nature make me pay for that!

On paper, it appeared as if a bonafied heat wave was heading to New England, for the period of Wednesday through Friday. Yes, it did get awfully hot on Wednesday, but then the wheels fell off the heat wave bandwagon.

I’m still trying to figure out how projected high temperatures of mid to high 90’s with high humidity, turned into upper 50’s and low 60’s with periods of drizzle and very chilly northeast winds! It was certainly one of the coldest July stretches on record here in Boston.

As much as I say we’re going to settle into a true summer time pattern, it keeps reverting back to the same pattern we’ve been experiencing since spring. As a forecaster, it has been very frustrating.

This means a brief burst of summer heat for maybe 1 or 2 days, abruptly followed by a unseasonably string of cold, incelment weather. Oh, we’ve had some beautiful weather…much of June was very pleasant, albeit without much rain.

There are a couple things going on here. First, a persistant positive PDO (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean) have kept a ridge of high pressure in Alaska and western Canada.

This in return sends shallow troughs (cool & unstable) air towards New England. In addition, pressures over Greenland have not lowered enough to completely eraticate the pesky Greenland block! This means systems slow down as they appraoch New England and even stall.

If a storm stalls south of New England, all bets are off. Winds will turn northeast, and cloudy and cool weather can persist for days on end. This is very much like a pattern you would expect to see in April and May, not mid July.

Computer models have been constantly forecasting these two factors to diminish. I’m concerned if it doesn’t happen soon, we will run out of time for my summer forecast to verify.

With that being said, remember last summer? We did not hit our first 90 degree day until July 17th. We then proceeded to rack up 14 ninety degree days, making for a very toasty second half of summer!

As for this summer, I’m still in the camp of believing the heat is delayed, but will not be denied! With the seasonal shift of 4 to 6 weeks in place, I believe the summer pattern is still slowly evolving.

Computer models are insisting of a large scale pattern change, with colder than normal temperatures in the northwest, and warmer than normal in the southeast part of the country. This is what a typical La Nina pattern looks like.

From what I’m seeing, it appears to me we are going to continue with a transient pattern here in New England. Which is a good thing, because we will have breaks from time to time from the intense heat.

However, with the season maturing, the heat will begin to stay longer, and the cold periods will be less of an issue moving forward. Will the pattern shift this week be the beginning of the warmer regime for the rest of the summer?

I believe it is. I’m sticking with my forecast of between 15 and 20 ninety degree days for Boston this summer, when all is said and done. Since we only have 2 ninety degree days so far, we will need a late rally similar to last year to pull it off!

It was about this time last year when the pattern suddenly flipped. I distinctly remember the slow response in the atmosphere, recovering from the historic winter the year before.

Last year, if you recall, a surging El Nino was blossoming right about this time of the year. Around mid July, a bubble of heat developed across the eastern part of the U.S. This bubble of heat then persisted right through until the end of the year.

I am 100% convinced the record warm El Nino helped to deliver a much warmer second half of the year for us here in New England last year.

What about this year? Well, El Nino is slowly fading. Is it completely gone? Not quite just yet. Last years El Nino emitted so much heat energy, there’s a lag effect in the atmosphere.

Earlier computer models were very bullish in developing a strong La Nina this winter. They have since backed off this idea, and are now showing a weak La Nina, or even a neutral state. This is known as La Nada in the weather industry.

So what does this mean for the rest of our summer? If we do have a major shift in the atmosphere like last summer, it may tilt towards a La Nina look.

If this is the case, colder weather would develop in the Pacific northwest and western Canada, especially if the PDO weakens. Sometimes, winter patterns begin to show up in summer!

When this occurs, warm to hot weather would develop across the southeast U.S. possibly including New England at times. This is a classic La Nina look to me. As I mentioned earlier, I believe the shift is underway.

It’s always a battle between the northern and southern jet stream. Too much energy in the northern jet will fowl up warm ups, leading to periods of showers and cooler weather at times. This has been the case so far this summer.

If the northern jet weakens and the southern jet becomes more dominant, expect warm to hot periods of weather moving forward for us here in New England…which may continue deep into the fall.

Computer models have been hinting at this shift for quite some time now. One of these times, the heat is going to arrive in New England and stay! Could this be the week it happens? I will monitor this closely. Long range computer models are hinting at some very hot weather for the second half of July.

Now for your weekly summer beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Watch for low clouds to finally burn off this afternoon, allowing for more sun and warmer temperatures to return!

Look for highs to be near 80 inland, but still only in the mid 70’s along the immediate coast. There will be light onshore winds, but it will be a nice afternoon for boating, and maybe even the bach? Look for fair weather tonight, with lows near 60.

Expect warmer weather tomorrow. In fact, it will be a very nice beach and boating day, with highs well up into the 80’s, with abundant sunshine and comfortable levels of humidity.

Tuesday night will be a pleasant summer evening with warm temperatures and a beautiful sunset! It will be dry overnight, with lows in the 60’s.

Be prepared for our first heat wave possible for the period Wednesday through Friday. Watch for temperatures between 90 and 94 degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, along with very uncomfortable humidity levels.

More clouds and possibly a thunderstorm may keep temperatures close to 90 on Friday. If we do hit 90, it will becaome our first official heat wave of the season!

Right now, the weekend is looking iffy…again! In particular Saturday. The front that tries to break the heat on Friday, may bring showers Saturday. If the front is south of us, it may be inclement, with showers and cooler east winds…sound familiar?

However, if the front is north of us, expect a summery day, with the possibility of heat wave conditions continuing. It would be steamy, with highs near 90, and chance of thunderstorms. It’s just too early to tell from now! However, if I were to make a call, I would lean towards the hotter solution.

Sunday should feature clearing skies, and drier humidity levels. It still will be on the warm to hot side, with highs near 90. Looks like a fine beach and boating day!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring the evolving summer pattern, and have a new update on that.

I will also talk about the ongoing drought, and let you know if any relief is in sight. In the meantime, we have a guest arriving this week…SUMMER!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

All Systems Go! Happy 4th! 7/4/16

Hello! Happy 4th of July, everyone! Apologies for the delay, it’s difficult getting a good internet connection while tanning at the beach! I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday with family and friends.

With the weather being so spectacular, it’s going to be a stellar night to go view a fireworks display! With this being the holiday, this is going to be a very brief post today, as I continue to relax and spend time with family.

What a stretch of fine weather! I’m very pleased last weeks forecast verified for today! Pretty much all three days were just gorgeous. There were some high clouds down here on the Cape yesterday, but those cleared out yielding for a beautiful 4th of July, with low humidity and deep cobalt blue skies! It was as close to a “10” as we will ever get for this date!

After several weeks of dry, and mostly warm weather, it appears our luck is about to run out. As mentioned in previous posts, we have a blast of the summer heat arriving right on schedule this week. This makes sense, as the Pacific PDO appears to be weakening, and the Atlantic Ocean finally appears to be warming up.

I will elaborate on these factors in more detail next week. For now, I wanted to get right into the forecast details for the upcoming week.

I will rate this week a 8 out of 10 on the summer beach and boating scale. Expect a beautiful evening across much of New England for all fireworks and outdoor activities. Look for mainly clear skies and comfortable temperatures across the region. When the bombs burst in air, temperatures will be very comfortable with low humidity…just about perfect!

If your down the Cape, there may be some high cloudiness moving in, but this will not interfere with fireworks display, the way I see it. Very late at night, a quick moving storm will pass south of New England, which may come close enough to bring a few showers to the south coast, and Cape Cod and the islands, very late tonight.

Watch for any early showers to move out of the Cape early tomorrow, yielding clearing skies during the afternoon. Elsewhere around the region, early clouds will give way to increasing sun, and a very warm afternoon, with highs mainly in the mid 80’s.

Tuesday night will feature clear skies and warm temperatures, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Expect hot weather to surge into New England on Wednesday, with mainly sunny weather and temperatures warming into the lower 90’s across the region.

Watch for very hot and more humid to continue across much of southern New England on Thursday. I am expecting temperatures to soar into the mid 90’s on Thursday.

Because the humidity levels will be higher on Friday, air temperatures may not get as hot, but will feel much more uncomfortable due to higher humidity levels. A front may be in the area, which may turn winds onshore, cooling coastal locations off a bit. If winds don’t turn onshore, temperatures may make another run at 90.

With a front nearby, there’ s always a chance of some thunderstorms around. Remember, you need three consectutive days of 90 degrees or higher to classify it as an official heat wave. So if it can hit 90 again on Friday, it will be an official heat wave.

Right now, Saturday looks to be a bit tricky as well. A wavy back door cool front will be I our vicinity. This means a cooling refreshing sea breeze may cool off beaches with some relief. Later, a stronger cold front may push through the region with some afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

If this front clears the coast, skies will clear and temperatures will return back to seasonable levels, which may continue into next week!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next weeks blog, I will have my full beach and boating forecast. I will also be on the lookout for any significant rain for our area. Some areas received some temporary relief with thunderstorms last week, but a good soaking is still needed.

This is not in the cards for at least the next 7 to 10 days. Much of our area is now in a moderate drought. In the meantime, enjoy celebrating our independence tonight, then get ready for a blast of heat!

Happy 4th of July, everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Can It Hold Through The 4th? 6/27/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a great weekend! There are not enough superlatives to describe the weather across New England over the past week!

It is not often, when we get to enjoy nearly 100% sunshine, very warm temperatures, and very comfortable humidity, throughout a whole weekend in late June!

I knew it was going to be a good week, but once again, I underestimated the rating. It easily was a 9 out of 10, or even, the illusive 10 out of 10!

After 6 years of writing my blog, I think I can count in one hand how many 10 out of 10’s I have given out. Maybe too tough of a grader?

It’s possible.  Looking back at my track record, I believe my weekly ratings are pretty much on point. Perfection should not be given out freely. Having said that, if anyone can achieve perfection, it’s Mother Nature!

Had we not have some clouds last Monday, last week could of been considered perfect.

Yesterday, I got away from the hustle and bustle of the city, and headed down to my good friends place down on Nantasket Beach, in Hull. Of course, this did not come without a price.

First, I had to put some time in working on my never ending renovation project in my house. But once there, it was time for rest and relaxation…and no work!

Nantasket Beach always brings back nostalgic memories for myself.  Nantasket Beach was a family destination for kids growing up all across the Boston area.

Tell me you didn’t used to do the countdown coming around the bend to see the huge roller coaster at Paragon Park!!

Today, Paragon Park is gone, but the beach and many shops and restaurants remain. However, The true beauty of Nantasket Beach is it’s location and shape.

Being just a 45 minute drive from Boston, the beach is a peninsula which extends south to north, and directly faces the Atlantic Ocean to its east. Typically, it’s a good 5 to 10 degees cooler than Boston on hot summer days.

While this may beautiful to see sunrises, its location is subjected to severe winter storms and nor’easters in the winter! In fact, much of Nantasket Beach was destroyed in the Great Blizzard of 1978! Several other storms have hit the area over the years, but thankfully none have matched the intensity of the blizzard. This may of been a storm of a lifetime.

Whether it was Nantasket, or any other beautiful beaches and lakes we have in New England, I hope you got out and enjoyed the fresh air!

Well that’s in the past. And in the weather business, most folks have short memories. With everyone having so much on their plates these days, many can’t even remember what happened yesterday! Yes, last week was beautiful, but most folks want to know what’s next?

This is a very good qustion. Can this unprecedented stretch of beautiful weather continue through the 4th of July weekend?

Couple things are going on here. Much of eastern Massachusetts is rapidly sinking into moderate drought conditions. The combination of months of below average rain, a sun angle which is at its highest of the year, and very low dew points, have turned much of the area into somewhat of a semi arid desert!

Look at your lawns! I don’t ever recall brown lawns this time of the year. In typical summers, lawns may turn brown late in summer, after hot & dry weather of July and August, finally take its toll on thirsty lawns. This is pretty normal.

My friend Mark keeps close tabs on my forecast. In fact, he has been one of my biggest fans of the blog from the beginning! The exception to this is my sister Pam, of course!

Not only is Mark interested in the weather, but he also needs to follow the forecast for his landscaping business. Yesterday, he asked me if the drought is media driven, or has some actual meteorological data behind it.

I told him, no doubt, this is turning into a serious problem. I understand that the pattern will eventually change, and we’ll probably get a flood. But in the meantime, the dryness to the pattern has not gone without notice.

In fact, I told Mark that you can trace this drought going back to 2013. Many folks will just look at the current deficit for June, or May and June combined, and see that we’re a only 3 to 6″ below the average. But this is only part of the story. Looking at it that way, this is called an unusually dry stretch.

However, when you go further back in the data, you will notice that the Boston area has had yearly rainfall deficits over the past three years. If you add up the numbers, we are running between 15 and 20″ below normal in precipitation since 2013. This would be classified as a moderate drought.

For this reason, I am not surprised that the lawns are drying out so early in the season. Mark also pointed out that the ground is so dry, that the water just evaporates into the gray dirt after watering. A good 2 to 3 day soaking rain is needed to slowly soak into the earth.

You might ask, what about all that snow we got back in winter 2015. Yes, it was a lot of snow! However, many folks don’t realize just how little water content that snow was holding. In an average snowfall, 1 inch of water equals to about 10″ of snow. They call this a 10 to 1 ratio.

During that winter, snow ratios were ridiculously high. In some cases, it was more like a 30 to 1 ratio! This means 30″ of snow fell in only 1″ of water. This was because when the epic snowfalls occurred, temperaturtes were also bitterly cold! This was very unusual in its own right.

I remember going to last years Southern New England Weather Conference, and Harvey Leonard explaining just how incredibly narrow the channel was, for extremely cold temperatures and moisture to mix together at just the right spot.

In our case, the channel extended from southeastern New England, right up Interstate 95 through all of Boston and points east, then parts of the north shore as well.

So we get that its dry, but this doesn’t answer what kind of weather we’re going to have for the all important 4th of July weekend?

Well, I can tell you this. It’s looking a bit more shaky than last week did, that’s for sure. However, at this point, I’m not seeing any widespread washouts.

In fact, long time Boston meteorologists Mark Rosenthal always used to say, “when in doubt, forecast drought.” This rule holds some merit. When we are in very dry patterns, drought tends to promote more drought.

In other words, computer models have a difficult time determining just how dry ground soil is. Such dry conditions can create micro climates, where high pressure, or sinking air, overpowers any storms or showers from developing.

The way I see it, we have two chances of rain this week. First will be tomorrow into early Wednesday, the second is sometime on Saturday.

Both don’t look like much, to me. However, in a humid airmass, any showers and thunderstorms could produce some locally heavy rainfall.

If you view the NOAA’s long range 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day precipitation outlook, you would notice that New England is painted in above normal preciptitation over the next two weeks. So is this fact, or reality? Hopefully not fore this week!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect another fantastic day across much of New England today.

Like yesterday, it’s nearly a 10 for beach and boating…so get out there if you can! Watch for mainly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid low to mid 80’s along east coast beaches, and low to mid 70’s along the south coast, including south side Cape beaches.

Later in the day, some cloudiness will show up which will signal a change in the weather come tomorrow. Expect some clouds to be around tonight, but should remain dry in eastern areas. As a cold front slowly pushes our way, it will turn a bit muggy overnight, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Tuesday will feature more clouds, and may not be the best beach day. There may be some scattered showers at any point during the day, however very little rain is expected down on the Cape.

As a cold front slowly pushes eastward tomorrow night, showers and thunderstorms may become more numerous. This activity may continue into the forst part of Wednseday as well, especially across the Cape.

Later Wednesday, it may turn sunny once again across the rest of the region, depending on how quickly the front clears the coast.

Thursday and Friday look like nice days to me, at this point, with mainly sunny skies and lower humidity, highs will generally be in the lower upper 70’s and lower 80’s. Should be fine beach and boating days.

Another cold front will be approaching from the west later Friday. So look for some afternoon clouds once again. There’s another chance of showers & some thunderstorms later Friday into Saturday. Again, this does not look to be a washout, but timing is everything.  Showers may linger down the Cape into the evening.

If this cold front moves far enough offshore, we should clear out later Saturday into Sunday. If the front stalls, some models were hinting at a small wave of low pressure passing to our south on Sunday.

This may keep some clouds and possible some showers along the south coast and Cape early Sunday. Otherwise, I’m expecting improving weather on Sunday.

Right now, latest computer models are showing 4th of July to feature plenty of sunshine and dry levels of humidity. High temperatures should range between 75 and 82. Should be perfect for outdoor activities, beach & fireworks!!

Well, that’s about it for now! Next Monday is 4th of July, and I’m planning on being down the Cape with family. I am hoping on posting a short blog, to keep everyone updated on the latest fireworks forecast, just in case anything changes!

I will also have another weekly forecast, and be on the lookout for any summer time heat! In the meantime, enjoy the fine early summer pattern, but don’t be too disappointed if it rains. We have no control over it, and we need it!

Have a great week!

Pete

Summer Solstice…Full Moon! 6/20/16

Hello! It was a spectacular weekend across much of the New England region! Whether you went to beach, gone fishing, took a hike in the mountains, or just relaxed on a lake, this was your type of weather!

Both days featured pleasantly warm temperatures, low humidity, and an abundance amount of sunshine. This type of weather was ideal for all of the outdoor weddings, and graduation parties ongoing this time of year.

Though meteorological summer arrives on June 1st, today is the official start of astronomical summer. In fact, summer officially arrives in the Northern Hemisphere at 6:34 PM this evening.

Taking it one step further, tonight will also feature a full “Strawberry Moon” rising in the east at sunset. This will not happen on the same day of the summer solstice for another 46 years!

Just get out there and enjoy the spectacle this evening. Ideally, if you are anywhere near the east coast beaches of New England, the view should be phenominal.

I personally love watching the moon rise at Nantasket Beach in Hull. It’s the perfect spot. With warm breezes, the beach faces nearly due east.

As the moon rises over the horizon, it casts a beautiful glow over the Atlantic. If you’re lucky, haze particles along the horizon may give the moon a reddish glow.

The red color should not be confused with this months name of the moon. Native American Indians named the moon the strawberry moon, because June is the month when strawberries are in season!

So today is the longest day of the year here in the Northern Hemisphere. From this point forward, the days begin to shorten. Only by seconds to start, accelerating to minutes by the time we reach August.

As we enter September, the days begin to shorten quite rapidly, until days and nights are equal once again on the autumnal equinox. That means it’s going to start turning colder now, right? WRONG!

I always tease my sister Pam this time of year. She’s under the impression that now that we have reached the longest day of the year, it’s all down hill to winter from here. On paper, she’s correct. It is all down hill to winter from here.

However, the atmosphere does not work that way. Many years, Mother Nature is very punctual with her seasons. In addition, there is a lag effect, or latent heating and cooling effect in the atmosphere. Yes, this may be the longest day of the year, but our warmest days of the year are still ahead of us!

In fact, on average, the warmest period of weather here in Boston, is between July 1st and August 15th. After August 15th, the average daily temperature begins to slowly decline.

Because the oceans take longer to heat up than the land, our warmest weather comes after the solstice. In addition, latent solar radiation from the sun needs time to build up to maximum strength over the course of the spring.

This does not occur until July and August, not May and June. Other factors such as jet stream winds and precipitation play a role in just how hot, or how cool we’re going to be this summer.

Last summer was a perfect example of everything I just mentioned above. After the record, historic cold and snowy winter of 2015-16, it took forever for the atmosphere to bounce back from such a enormous event.

If you recall, Boston did not receive it’s first 90 degree day until July 17th last summer! However, once we did it, it was off to the races!

A dramatic global shift altered the weather patterns last July, sending a plume of very warm to hot weather to New England for not only last August, but also for the remainder of the year.

Remember how warm it was last November and December? It was the warmest Nov/Dec on record here in Boston. I believe this had a lot to do with the increasing record warm El Nino last summer, that kept us so unusually warm last summer and fall.

In fact, Boston went on to record 14 ninety degree days last summer. After such a slow start, it was quite a remarkable feat to accomplish!

What about this summer? After another cool start, am I going to drastically change my summer forecast issued back on May 23rd? The short answer to this question is no.

My initial call of between 15 and 20 ninety degree days, I believe, is going to hold merit. Overall, it’s going to turn into a very warm to hot summer over most of the country this year. If you don’t like the heat, we’re just getting started with this summer…so get ready!

You can see it building up steam off to our south and southwest. There is a huge bubble of hot weather that’s just marking time before it begins to build into New England. This heat is not going away anytime soon.

The whole key to the summer forecast lies in waht’s happening in the Pacific Ocean. As mentioned in earlier posts, the Pacific is in its warm phase, or + PDO (Pacific Decadel Oscillation).

So far, this + PDO has been protecting New England from receiving hot temperatures too soon.

If this warm pool of water were to continue as is this summer, it would blunt the scorching heat reaching New England. The reason is that high pressure would build into western Canada, this in return would send shallow troughs of somewhat cooler and drier air from eastern Canada, down into New England.

However, computer models have been trying to weaken this + PDO, as we head into the summer. For this reason, I believe this is going to be another back ended summer, with our hottest weather arriving the second half of July and much of August.

Depending on how strong the La Nina becomes during the summer, will determine if this very warm weather continues into this fall.

If La Nina does not intensify too much, a return of seasonably cool weather may arrive sometime in October and November.

However, if the La Nina becomes too strong, it may strengthen the southeast ridge, and keep the warm weather going deep into the fall in New England.

Other factors will come into play, and this is just speculation at this point.

One thing I am confident of. We will have quite a burst of hot summer weather this year here in New England, with 90 degree days piling up quicker than you can count!

One other wildcard that has cropped up in recent days. WeatherBell’s expert long range meteorologist Joe Bastardi has been keeping a close eye on this new development.

In recent days, ocean temperaures off the east coast have rapidly cooled. What this means for the near term is still yet not clearly understood.

It could be a temporary cool down, or part of a long term change to cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures. If anything, this cooler water could help prohibit hurricane activity from developing along the east coast this summer.

This is quite a surprise, and I will keep a close eye on this in the coming days. I will also collaberate with my good weather associate Remy, from the Lower Hudson Valley of New York. Very interesting indeed.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity, and beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. One could argue last week could of easily been a 9 out of 10.

The great weather will continue to just roll on! A couple pertibations in the atmosphere could prevent a 9 out of 10 this week.

For the rest of today, expect a great beach day! Sun will be mixed with some high clouds. It will become warmer and more humid, with highs between 85 and 90. It will be somewhat cooler right at the beaches. It will also be a great day to be out on the water with the boat.

Also, watch for that rising full moon to the east tonight, as we welcome summer 2016 at 6:34 PM! Watch for an increase in haze and humidity tonight, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Tuesday will feature a chance of a few showers crossing the area, especially during the morning. The air is unstable enough to support thunder, but there may not be enough help for the sun to get things cooking.

Nonetheless, there could be some thunder around, so it won’t be a good idea to be out near the water. Rain showers may linger south of Boston during the afternoon, while skies try and clear to the north and west of Boston. This could set the stage for a nice sunset! Despite the clouds highs should still make it into the lower 80’s.

As the cold front pushes off the coast, a cooler and drier air mass will begin to flow into New England, Tuesday night. Lows will be in the 50’s and lower 60’s.

Wednesday should feature a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the upper 70’s. A weak storm will be passing south of New England on Thursday. This may bring a shield of clouds into the region.

At this point, most of the rain looks like it will miss, however, it could rain for a time across the south coast and Cape Cod for a time on Thursday.

After that system moves by, it appears as if more nice weather will be moving back into New England for the period of Friday through Sunday.

Expect pleasant temperatures for Friday and Saturday, mainly in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. Temperatures could warm back up again to between 85 and 90 on Sunday, making for another splendid beach day!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring the patterns closely, and let you know what kind of weather we can expect for the 4th of July weekend! Yes, it’s here already!

In the meantime, enjoy the full moon on the summer solstice…how can my summer forecast go wrong with this grand entrance!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Snow…In June? 6/13/16

Hello, everyone! It was a blustery, unsettled weekend across New England. Saturday featured cloudy and somewhat muggy conditions.

Fortunately, for my cousin, the rain just barely skirted the area, leaving us mainly on the cloudy but dry side for her fabulous wedding.

It was a different story the further southwest you went. Many areas in New York and Connecticut had a period of rain on Saturday.

Sunday was quite dramatic! It started off fine, with brilliant sunshine and temperatures warming quickly to 80 degrees. However, things turned turbulant during the afternoon.

As a strong cold front passed through the area, cold air aloft poured into the region during the afternoon. Gusty west winds helped to pull some of this cold air aloft down to the surface.

The result was plummeting temperatures during the afternoon. In addition, dark cumulus clouds made for a November like sky. During the early evening, we went up to the new sports complex by Millennium Park to watch my nephew’s baseball game.

The calander may of said June 12th, but it looked and felt like November 12th! To say it was cold was an understatement. The temperature hovered in the mid 50’s, but with a west wind gusting to 40 m.ph., it easily felt like the mid 40’s.

Quick hitting downpours didn’t help the cause. We were huddled together with blankets as if we were at a Patriots game on a cold day in November. A colorful rainbow towards the east, brightened up the mood.

Since it was so cold down here, it was no surprise that it was snowing up on Mt. Washington, and I’m sure other high peaks in New Hampshire yesterday!

It makes sense…if it was 55 degrees in Boston, it would of plenty cold up in the mountains for snow to fall. As a general rule of thumb, for every 1000 ft you travel up into the atmosphere, it gets about 6 degrees colder.

With Mt. Washington being at 6,288 ft above sea level, temperatures were in the upper 20’s at the summit. And that’s not all, hurricane force winds created very dangerous mid winter conditions for hikers planning on a leisurely hike in June.

Mt washington’s climate is not for the faint of heart. Because of it’s latitude, and position deep in the White Mountains, and fairly close proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, fierce weather condtions can happen throughout the year up there…even in the summer!

If you ever plan on hiking Mt. washinton, take it from me, you must be prepared for just about anything to occur. Just a couple quick tips. First, if you want to hike it, go with a reliable friend or a group.

Second, do some training before hand by either hiking smaller mountains or elevated treadmill at the gym.

And third, bring plenty of water and check the current forecast! Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions as you approach the summit.

With that all being said, the reward of reaching the summit far outway the worries of all the hard work getting there. The panoramic views at the top, even halfway make it all worth it!

I’m always up for a good challenge. If anyone would like to take a challenging adventure up to the White Mountains of New Hampshire, hit me up!

Just be aware, it’s not like taking a hike through the Blue Hills! The Blue Hills are beautiful in its own right. But Mt. Washington is a lot steeper and nearly 7 times taller.

So what is causing all of this unusual weather? As with many things, it’s not just one thing. The spring as whole as been quite unusual.

Despite actually ending up with near average temperatures as a whole, how we got there has been like watching the stock market!

We should of known something was up, when we  had a snowfall on the very first day of spring! From there, we had several more snowfalls right into early April.

Aside from the snow, temperatures have been all over the place.  It seems the theme of the spring, to have bursts of summer time heat, only to be followed by sharply colder weather, almost within 24 hours.

After the second warmest winter on record, it was apparent the pattern abruptly shifted as the soon as the Spring Equinox arrived. With a fading El Nino, the factors that kept the cold air from penetrating into New England during winter, relaxed.

This allowed more of a winter time pattern to develop when spring arrived. Blocking over Greenland developed, and has been very persistant since early spring.

This, in conjunction with still chilly ocean temperatures off of our coast, has kept eastern New England quite chilly this spring. In addition, a positive PDO (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the northern Pacific), has promoted building strong ridges of high pressure over western Canada.

When this happens, it allows troughs of low pressure (cold & stormy weather) to amplify heading southeast towards New England. With these three factors, it has kept New England mainly unsettled and cold this spring.

Now that you have endured reading through all of the talk of cold, blustery winds, and even snow, here is the good news! Now that we are nearing the Summer Solstice, I’m beginning to see signs that this pattern may be beginning to break down.

As I had planned for the summer forecast, the pattern may be flipping just as the solstice hits. Long range computer guidance is hiniting towards low pressure developing over Greenland, and high pressure building underneath here in New England.

This means the Greenland block may be nearing its end, for now. If this is the case, New England can expect warm to even hot weather to begin to build into the region from our west, and southwest to kick off the summer season.

After a shaky start to this week, I am expecting more stable weather to move into our region for the rest of this week. Though not particularly hot, temperatures should at least be average, with very little rainfall. As we head towards Father’s Day and beyond, true summer heat may begin to build into New England.

As of right now, I am not changing my summer forecast issued on May 23rd. I’m still expecting a hotter than normal summer here in Boston, with between 15 and 20 ninety degree days this summer.

Summer heat is already building in areas to our southwest. I believe this is just marking time before it arrives in New England. If there’s one thing that may save us from really having a scorching summer here in New England, it may be that positive PDO I talked about in the Pacific Ocean.

It’s no gaurantee, but this may help send shallow troughs of cooler weather out of Canada from time to time to give us several breaks here in New England. Folks in the mid Atlantic states may not be so lucky.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity and beach and boating forecast. I am rating this week a 8 out of 10. After a shaky start today, the rest of the week looks absolutely beautiful! Enjoy it, because summer heat comes in next week!

Today is quite similar to yesterday, except not as windy or cold. Nonetheless, expect building clouds, blustery winds and cool temperatures for the rest of this afternoon.

As we head towards evening, don’t be surprised if you encounter a few scattered showers or very quick downpours. Temperatures will mainly be in the lower and mid 70’s today. So a bit warmer than yesterday. After some scattered evening showers, watch for clearing skies tonight with low temperatures mainly in the 50’s.

Now for the good news! For the period of Tuesday through Sunday, expect mainly sunny and dry weather! There may be a chance of a shower on Friday and then again on Sunday, but this is only a low chance at this point.

Watch for temperatures to mainly be in the upper 70’s and low 80’s throughout the period. There may be a seabreeze on Friday & Saturday, which may keep the beaches cooler.

Father’s Day is looking good at this point, with only a slight chance of a shower and warmer temperatures. As I mentioned earlier, real summer weather may invade New England come next week.

If you are planning to do some beach and boating this week, it’s looking good. Although, if you like it hot at the beach, we’re not quite there just yet. Cooling sea breezes on Friday and Saturday may keep the beaches a bit chilly. Obviously, today is also not a beach day.

Gusty winds will begin to diminish after tomorrow, so boating weather will improve during the week. However, watch for a lingering swell, due to the large storm in the maritmes, at least through Wednesday. Conditions will improve as we head towards the weekend.

Just another quick note. I know many all love sunny and hot weather during the summer. Despite the unsettled weather this spring, we still are running a precipitaion deficit from last year. So some soaking rains would be welcome before the summer heat settles in. None is in the forecast for the rest of this week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring the building summer heat ready to spread into New England.

I will also have a brief update on my summer forecast, as well as another beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the pleasant weather this week, and no more talk of snow & cold until next fall, please!

Thanks for reading!

~Happy Father’s Day, to all!~