Not Quite Summer, Just Yet…6/6/16

Hello! It was a classic split decision weekend. After some morning fog, Saturday turned into a summer like day, with sunshine and temperatures warming up into the mid 80’s. This was especially true acrosss the interior. If you were close to the beaches, you had to deduct 15 degrees, and also keep an eye out for a fog bank lurking just offshore.

Sunday just turned awful! My niece graduated from high school yesterday…lucky they moved the ceremony indoors! There was some question whether the rain would hold off to do the graduation outdoors. But that would not of been a wise decision, as downpours moved in just about when the ceremony began.

After some early showers, heavier rain moved in during the afternoon. All forecasts verified, and any outdoor plans had to be moved indoors. Lucky for my niece, her party was held on Saturday, which turned out to be a fine early summer day!

With so many graduations, weddings and parties being held outdoors this time of year, it can be very stressful planning these events.  Fortunately, with the advancement in forecasting these days, most folks had ample warning to make other arrangements due to inclement weather.

At the party, many friends and family were asking me some very insightful questions about the weather! Some were asking what is up with all of the extreme temperatures lately? Others wanted to know what kind of summer we are going to have? I also received many inquiries on what I thought the weather was going to be like on the 4th of July!

With all of that said, many family members were asking about the weather for this Saturday. My cousin has a outdoor wedding planned, so the pressure was on!

I will get to Saturday’s forecast shortly! First, I wanted to talk a little bit about our current pattern, and where I think it’s going from here.

No doubt, the temperatures have been all over the place lately! Last week was a perfect expample of this. Saturday was a broiling hot summer day, with temperatures reaching the 90’s region wide.

The very next day, the temperatures dropped a good 30 degrees, sending folks scrambling for the sweat tops! It remained cool for the beginning of the week, only to warm right back up to the upper 80’s on Wednesday.

Just a day later, temperatures plummeted back down into the 60’s! Many want to know, just what the heck is going on here? I would like to tell folks that this is a pretty normal pattern for here in eastern New England…but many would not believe me!

A friend at the party was pointing out to me just how cold the spring was around here. Thinking back, I tended to agree with him. However, upon further investigation, the spring actually ended up to be 1 degree above average.

The key word here is average. It was cold this spring. In many cases, very cold. However, we also had many spells of warm weather too. The point here is that it’s the extremes that makes the averages.

And we have many extremes here in New England! Because we live right next to the Atlantic Ocean, we are susceptible to rapid changes here in eastern New England. It takes a lot of work by Mother Nature to transform from the winter pattern to summer.

The process of latent heating and cooling is a major driver in our weather patterns during the spring and fall around here. It takes longer for the ocean to heat up than the land.

During the spring, the sun is working hard to heat up the land. Because warm air is lighter, it quickly rises over land. As the warm air rises, colder, more dense air rushes in off of the Atlantic Ocean to balance the temperature difference. If it’s hot enough, fog will also develop along the coast, as it did on Saturday.

Couple things to keep in mind as we move deeper into June. First, astronomically speaking, it’s still spring. Next, the sun is working hard to warm up the ocean temperatures. As of today, water temperatures are still only in the upper 50’s off of Boston…and even colder as you head north.

This is why patience is needed this time of year. It’s the same thing in November here in Boston, when I desperately want the snow to arrive.  However, the Atlantic Ocean next to us makes sure of it that this does not happen.

After a long, hot summer, it takes a long time for the ocean temperatures to cool off in the fall. This modifies the coast, and keeps us warmer deeper into the fall.

Though it does snow before the solstice, severe winter weather typically waits until after Christmas to show up around here.

For this reason, I’m expecting a roller coaster temperature pattern for us, most likely right up until the summer solstice. Because of the temperature difference, we also are at risk of periods of rainy and cool weather as well.

Thereafter…watch out! I’m expecting summer heat to surge into New England the last 10 days of June, right through the 4th of July weekend! Once the hot weather arrives, I believe it will be persistant through most of the upcoming summer, even into September.

I’m very confident my forecast of between 15 and 20 ninety degree days is going to verify this summer. I may tweek this number on my summer update around the solstice, but I’m not expecting any significant changes. If anything, the number may go up.

Last week, I also wrote about my 2016 hurricane forecast. I just wanted to stress once again, that this is going to be a much more active season than previous years.

Right now, my forecast stands for between 14 and 17 named storms, with 3 to 5 major hurricanes developing. Because El Nino is fading, wind shear is not going to as much of a inhibitor this season.

In addition, ocean temperatures along the east coast will remain well above normal. This will bring a less hostile environment for hurricanes to develop this season.

For this reason, people who live along the east coast, including New England, must be vigilant of a potential landfalling hurricane this season.

Remember, it’s not the number of storms to focus on. It only takes one to cause a tremendous amount of damage. Hurricane Andrew back in 1992 is proof of that.

Time goes by, people forget about what kind of damage these storms can bring. If a 1938 type of storm were to hit New England in today’s economy, the consequences would be devastating.

I will be monitoring the activity very closely this season, and will be sure to bring any suspicious areas to your attention. Because of the potential, I will be watching the tropics and updating them much more frequently than in previous years.

We are already on our third name of the season with Colin. This storm will likely not develop into a hurricane, but nonetheless, will threaten northern Florida with tropical storm conditions later today.

This means heavy rain, winds of between 40 and 70 miles per hour, and the threat of small, brief tornadoes at landfall. This is enough to take this storm seriously, if you live there. Please listen to local media outlets, the National Weather Service for the latest on this tropical storm.

This storm will pass safely out to sea, and not be a threat to New England. However, this is a warning shot for all interests, to be aware of what may be to come later this season.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Changeable, again! Expect very warm temperatures, along with plenty of sunshine for the rest of this afternoon. With a west wind, temperatures will warm up to the low to mid 80’s, even close to the coast.

Fair weather and mild temperatures will be the theme for tonight, with lows in the 50’s. Tuesday should be another very warm day across the region. However, a strong cold front will begin to push into New England.

Because this will be happening during the peak heating of the day, there is the chance for a line of showers and thunderstorms to rumble through the area during the mid to later part of the afternoon.

The potential does exist for some of these storms to turn severe, especially just to the west amd northwest of the city. Expect this activity to keep moving through the area, so skies should begin to clear later tomorrow evening.

For the period of Wednesday through Friday, expect a different airmass alltogether. I’d rather not say it, but it will feel like a touch of fall all over again.

Watch for temperatures to be mainly in the 60’s and very low 70’s during the day, and 40’s and 50’s at night. In addition, there may be some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With such cold air aloft, there is also the chance of some hail in these storms. This is especially true later Wednesday and also Thursday.

Right now, I am expecting this trough to actually deepen a bit more as we head into the weekend. If timing works out, Saturday may be just stable enough to feature a mainly dry and cool day, with highs mainly in the 60’s to near 70. I hope this works out for the wedding!

However, latest computer models are now indicating yet another unusual storm developing and passing just south of New England on Sunday. If this happens, expect rain to move in early Sunday, and continuing for much of the day. In addition, northeast winds will make it a very chilly day, with highs mainly in the 50’s. Yuck!

Well, that’s about it for now! In my next blog, I will be monitoring our developing summer patterns. For those interested, I will also begin my beach and boating forecast. Today is a good beach day, but not so much the rest of this week.

In the meantime, it may not be quite summer just yet, but it’s not winter either…it’s called spring!  Be a bit more patient, and you will be rewarded with hot, summery weather. Hang in there, we’re almost there!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Timing Is everything! 5/30/16

Good morning! I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday weekend! Too bad the weather is not going to cooperate for Memorial Day itself. It certainly started off very summery, with Saturday tying a record high temperature of 92 degrees in Boston!

In last weeks forecast I mentioned about a possible back door cool front cooling us down for Sunday and Monday. Computer models backed off this scenerio, only to bring it back with a vengeance later in the week. In addition, they also began to hint at some tropical downpours for today. Boy, did these two things amplify as we approached the weekend.

Wow…what a roller coaster it has been! For instance, last Tuesday, high temperatures barely made it up to 60 degrees, with a raw east wind blowing in off the ocean. I posted on Facebook, not to worry, winds will reverse direction to the west on Wednesday, sending temperatures soaring towards 90.

After a sluggish start, winds indeed began blowing offshore, sending temperatures into the upper 80’s during the afternoon. Thursday and Friday turned cooler once again, only to really heat up again on Saturday.

Just when you though we had a stretch of nice, summery weather on the way, a strong back door cold front slid down the coast early Sunday morning. Winds abruptly  shifted from the southwest into the northeast, sending temperatures plummeting across much of eastern New England yesterday. Add areas of fog and drizzle, and it felt more like November again, rather than late May…just awful!!

To make matters worse, remnants of tropical depression Bonnie will be streaming across New England today. Yes, it will be warmer than yesterday, but you’re going to have to put up with the potential of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Certainly, this is a big change from what I was looking at last week at this time.

I believe my forecast held up pretty well through Saturday. For the rest of the holiday weekend, I opted to go with the optimistic outlook, which unfortunately did not work out that well for me this go around.

To be fair, skill level with computer models drop off quite a bit after 5 or 6 days. Add to the fickle nature of New England’s climate, and so many things can go wrong, no matter how seasoned of a forecaster you are.

On a different note, I finally got a chance to head up to my home away from home up in coastal New Hampshire this weekend. Last time I was up this way, the leaves were still not open on the trees back on May 1st. After some recent warm weather, I’m happy to report full foliage on all the trees.

After a hearty breakfast, we decided to go for a light hike. If you ever would like to go on a easy hike with tremendous views, I would highly recommend taking a short trip up to southern Maine, to Mt. Agamenticus. With Portsmouth, N.H. being so close by, you could make a fun day of it! At an elevation of only about 690 ft, it’s just a little taller than the Blue Hill down in Milton, Ma.

Much like Blue Hill, the views are spectacular! Unfortunately, we were socked in with fog, and a cold northeast wind yesterday. However, on a clear day, you can see the Atlantic Ocean to the east, and the majestic White Mountains of New Hampshire to the north.

When you reach the summit, there’s is a nice lodge, with a wildlife center, and lots of interesting facts and information. It’s a nice short hike for folks looking to someday take on one of the larger mountains in New England!

As I mentioned earlier, it certainly has been a crazy month of weather here in May. The month started out on the cold side, with the first seven days being the coldest it has been in May in some 80 years! The pattern reluctantly warmed up the second half of the month, with some bursts of summer weather.

However, overall, it looks like we’re going to have our second straight month of below average temperatures here in Boston. We just can’t seem to shake these pesky back door cold fronts this spring! Up until today, it also has been a very dry month. Let’s see how much rain falls today to close the monthly deficit we currently have. It’s quite unusual seeing brown grass show up across the area during May.

Am I worried about my forecast of a hotter than normal summer on the way, issued just last week? Certainly, it’s way too early to hit the panic button. It was just last summer, Boston got off to a very slow start, not reaching 90 degrees until July 17th!

Thereafter, we proceeded to hit 90 for a seasonal average 14 times. Rating how hot summers are is all relative.  Most folks prefer hot weather around for the holidays, such as today and on 4th of July. But the fact of the matter is, our hottest weather typically doesn’t arrive until we get deeper into the summer.

Much of this has to do with latent heating and cooling. It takes longer for the oceans to warm up than the land. Once the oceans warm up sufficiently, then we can start looking for sustainable hot weather here in Boston. In addition, astronomical summer does not arrive until June 21 st. When this happens, we then typically see the true summer pattern settle in.

Up to that point, there still could be a lot of back and forth going on. For the month of June, I’m expecting more roller coaster temperature swings. A bubble of hot weather looks like it wants to set up across the western part of the U.S. this means there will be a strong ridge of high pressure building in this part of the country. When this occurs, troughs of low pressure tend to swing across the eastern part of the United States out of Canada.

When the pattern relaxes, surges of warm to hot weather will spread into New England. I am expecting a warmer June than last year, with between 2 and 4 ninety degree days by months end. With the temperature contrast, I’m actually expecting a bit more rain than usual this month. we typically average about 3″ of rain in June.

Should this pattern were to continue for the summer, I could see how it could turn into more of an average summer, with a similar amount of 90 degree days that we had last year. However, as I mentioned in my summer forecast, I’m expecting summer to really heat up when we hit the solstice, with between 15 and 20 ninety degress days this year!

Along with summertime, arrives the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. The season officially kicks off on Wednesday, June 1st. As you may know, my weather interest lies in forecasting of winter storms, and nor’easters. However, I do find hurricanes fascinating, and have developed a keen interest in this topic over the years.

We could literally talk about hurricanes for hours! They are Mother Nature’s most powerful storms! For times sake, I will cut right to the case and let you know what I’m thinking. Last summer, we had a strengthening El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. This increase wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, making a hostile environment for hurricanes to develop.

This year, we have a fading El Nino, and a strengthening La Nina. This means less wind shear, lower pressures across the Atlantic basin, and rising air. This means we are going to have a much more active hurricane season, compared to last year. In addition, dust off of the Sahara dessert should not be as big of a factor this summer.

As of today, I am expecting between 14 and 17 named storms, with 7 to 9 of these becomming hurricanes, and 3 to 5 of these turning into major hurricanes. A major hurricane is anything which reaches cat 3 or greater. It’s too difficult to tell where these storms are going to hit right now.

However, I am concerned, much like I was last year for the east coast this summer. If patterns set up right, we too should also be concerned here in New England this year. I will be talking more about hurricanes in the coming weeks. This is a good start to give you awareness that I’m expecting a much more active hurricane season this summer summer and fall.

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. For the rest of your Memorial Day, expect early rain showers to end. There may be some sunny breaks early this afternoon, but this may destabilize the atmosphere, so watch out for the chance of a afternoon thunderstorm!

This may foul up evening cookout plans! Evening showers may linger for a while then end later on. It will be kind of muggy, with lows in the 50’s. Watch for much warmer temperatures on Tuesday with west winds, and highs in the lower to mid 80’s. It is going to be a fantastic day!

Another pesky back door cold front will move through on Wednseday, this will shift winds again to the northeast, and drop temperatures back into the 60’s and lower 70’s. It should stay mainly dry, but I can’t rule out a scattered shower.

Expect more unsettled & cooler weather for the period Thursday through Saturday, with highs mainly in the 60’s coast, and 70’s inland. This is not going to be a complete washout. However, there will be times of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday may clear out and warm up all over again. In all honesty, it’s still a very unsettled weather pattern, and things are subject to change unexpectedly. We’ll hope for the best!

Well, that’s about it for now! I hope everyone enjoys the rest of the holiday, despite the unsettled weather. In next week’s blog, I will be on the lookout for any sustained hot weather heading our way.  I will also have your first beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, please try to keep in mind, all of the veterans who made the ultimate sacrafice, to help bring safety and our freedom we enjoy today!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer 2016: Get The A.C.’s Ready! 5/23/16

Hello! As forecasted, it was a mostly dry weekend across the Boston area. A storm threatened to bring a soaking rain to the region Saturday night into Sunday…only to suddenly veer out to sea, clipping the Cape & Islands with some rain Saturday night.

Onshore winds prevented it from becoming as warm as I had thought, though Saturday did feature pleasant temperatures.

Looking back, I can’t take all the credit for the dry weekend. When I made last Monday’s forecast, I saw the potential for some rain for Sunday, but not the soaking that it could of been. Honestly, it could of gone either way.

Though I opted to go with an optimistic outlook, computer models during the week became increasingly bullish for a soaking rainstorm, especially along the coast for Sunday.

As luck would have it, the storm changed its track at the last second, leaving many wondering what the heck happened to the rain?

I always like to quote long time Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal in patterns like this. He always used to say, “when in doubt, forecast drought!”

We are not officially in a drought, but you could say we have been unusually dry for sometime now. If this pattern were to continue into the summer and early fall, then yes, we will enter drought status.

Drought works on feedback. Dry weather promotes more dry weather. Soils dry out, and high pressure with sinking air tends to feed on itself, causing storms and moisture to avoid the area. This often happens  in large regions such as California and Texas. It’s more complicated than that, but feedback is certainly one of the factors.

Believe me, there was no skill involved in this past weekend forecast. I opted to go with a mainly dry forecast, and it just happened to turn out that way!

Much like a wintertime pattern, a low pressure system was forecasted to develop along the mid Atlantic coast on Saturday. This low was then forecasted to intensify and move close to 40/70 benchmark on Sunday.

This is actually a classic track winter storms and nor’easters take, many times delivering heavy snow and high winds to eastern New England.

Of course, it’s late May, and this would of been just a cold rain. But still, it had all the upper air signature of a winter like storm. As with storms taking this track, the questions of whether the heavy precipitation would make it up into southern New England or not, was the buzz on Twitter and local media outlets.

On Friday, my sister called me for an important weather update. She was holding an outdoor graduation party for my niece on Sunday night, and wanted to know if it was going to be a washout.

Always happy to give a weather update, I stopped my work and quickly brought up the latest computer models and technical discussions.

I told her, that I had honestly had not kept up with the forecast during the week, though I have been reading the tweets about a possible storm for Sunday.

After quickly reviewing the data, I came to the conclusion that there may indeed be a storm coming. I told her it looked damp and rainy on Sunday, with some possibility of things drying out just before the party got going.

We laughed as this was the exact same forecast I gave her two years ago when my other niece graduated! So I was very pleased when the storm fizzled for my niece, and for all other graduation parties & weddings going on across the region today!

Nothing worse than rainy, cold weather on a day scheduled for outdoor activities…especially as we move into late May.

Where is the time going! It’s already time for my summer forecast! Memorial Day weekend is coming up, and we are now less than one month away from the summer solstice!

Much how we rate how bad the winter was with how much snow accumulates, I rate how hot summers are with how many 90 degree days we achieve during the season.

Summers come in different flavors. Some are warm and humid, without many 90 degree days. Others, have quite a few 90 degree days, but very few heat waves.

Then there are the real scorchers, with several heat waves, in addition to extended periods of high humidity, with very few opportunities for relief.

Much like severe winters, these summers come along once every 5 to 7 years. The last time Boston had a summer like this was back in 2010. If you do the math, you can see we are just about due for hot summer!

What about summer 2016? After studying all the data available, reading technical discussions from the experts, and adding my own thoughts, I have come to the conclusion that Boston is indeed going to have a hotter than normal summer this year!

What’s normal, you ask? Well, if you recall, last summer was as about as close to an average summer as you ever get around here. After a slow start, Boston reached 90 degress 14 times. This is exactly the amount of 90 degree days we should see in a normal summer.

We also had a few heat waves, but nothing excessive. Remember, an official heat wave is to have 3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees in a row. It was certainly a back ended summer. It did not hit 90 degrees in Boston until July 17th last summer!

Remember, last summer was coming off of the wicked historic winter of 2015. Ocean temperatures took forever to warm up, and the final pile of snow did not officially melt until July 14th!

When I compose my summer forecast, I look at several different factors. First, I look at the state of ENSO. We are now rapidly transitioning from a record strong El Nino, to a La Nina.

This means the Pacific Ocean waters off South America are transitioning from warm water to cold. Meanwhile, ocean temperatures off the east coast in the Atlantic, are forecasted to be above average again. This is going to promote high pressure and warm temperatures.

Next, I look at long range computer models, and try and determine where areas of hot weather will establish itself during the summer. I like to call these areas “bubbles” of heat. Last year, things were very transient, and bubbles of heat never really established itself anywhere in the U.S.

This year, I believe one of these bubbles of heat is going to establish itself along the east coast! Currently, I don’t believe this bubble is going to sit just over New England. From time to time, it will be squashed south by cool fronts coming out of Canada.

Though the Pacific Ocean will be getting cold off South America, the water off the British Columbia coast and Alaska, continues to be well above normal. We call this the positive state of the PDO.

Because of this, high pressure will continue to build in this region, resulting in hotter and dryer weather there. From what I’m seeing, I believe that this is going to spare New England a record hot summer.

Because a ridge of high pressure will be building out west, it will, from time to time allow troughs of modified cool air bringing relief to us here in New England.

Another factor which I believe will bring us hot weather this summer, is something I mentioned earlier in the post. Because of the recent dry weather, dry soil feedback will help promote hotter weather sooner in New England than last summer.

In addition, I’m also expecting a mainly positive North Atlantic Oscillation this summer. This means the Greenland block should not be much of a factor this summer! With colder, low pressure in this region, this means hotter, high pressure in the northeast region.

Putting all this together, I’m expecting a hotter than normal summer here in much of New England this year. It’s going to get started earlier than last summer, with warm to hot weather arriving as soon as this weekend!

Expect a warmer than normal June, with several hot days. Then a very hot July and August, with frequent heat waves. Residual heat may even continue into September, for those who like, “endless summers.”

At this point, I’m going to start off on the conservative side and forecast between 15 and 20 ninety degree days this summer here in Boston. I will take another look at this forecast near the summer solstice, and may “tweek” these numbers.

The most 90 degree days we’ve ever had in recorded history was I believe back in 1983, when we had a whopping 33 of them! Believe it or not, this is actually an analog year!

As far as precipitation goes, this is a bit of a wildcard. Because precipitation in summer is more of a convective type, it could be a matter of the haves, and the have nots! Overall, I’m thinking most areas should be able to muster up near normal rainfall with passing showers and thunderstorms.

Now for your weekly outdoor apring acitivity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Look for pleasant weather for the rest of your Monday. You will notice increasing clouds later in the day. Temperatures will mainly be in the mid 70’s.

Tonight will be dry to start, but expect showers to develop across the region after midnight. Low’s will mainly be in the 50’s.

Watch for Tuesday to be the most unsettled day of the week, with showers from time to time. With a cold pool aloft overhead, some may even experience a few thunderstorms.

It will be cooler tomorrow, with highs mainly in the 60’s. This looks to be the last in a series of cold, upper level storms affecting our area for a while.

In fact, look for clearing skies and warmer temperatures for Wednesday, highs will be near 80. It may turn a bit cooler along the coast on Thursday, with a backdoor front coming down the coast with a sea breeze, with highs in upper 60’s and low 70’s.

Temperatures should warm back up through the Memorial Day weekend. Right now, I am forecasting a very summery weekend! For the period of Friday through Monday, expect warm to hot weather, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s.

It’s not out of the question that some towns hit 90, but this will not be widespread. The only thing to look out for would be the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, especially on Saturday and Monday. This will not be widespread, and no washout is anticipated. Time to head to the beach and begin summer!

Well, that’s about it for now! Next week is the start of hurricane season! In next week’s blog, I will have my Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

This is not my strong point, but I will give it my best! I will also preview the month of June, and review May. In the meantime, keep the umbrella handy tomorrow, and the beach chair for this weekend!

~Have a safe & happy Memorial Day weekend!~

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Some Saw Snow…I See Summer! 5/16/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice weekend! I’m glad last weeks rating certainly overachieved. I forecasted a 6 out of 10, but I’m not just speaking for myself, that I believe it was more like an 8 out of 10.

The rain forecasted for this weekend did not materialize. Instead, warm weather, which persisted through the week, carried on into Saturday, with many locations hitting the mid to upper 70’s!

A sharp cold front did indeed arrive later Saturday, along with a few scattered showers. Sunday featured much cooler weather, along with a gusty west wind.

In fact, it was so chilly, that many mountain locations in New Hampshire and Vermont, actually reported snow falling! I saw many pictures on Twitter this morning, from folks who had accumulating snow overnight! This was especially true in locations above 2000 ft., where up to 3″ of snow fell!

A few people were asking me if it’s unusual for it to snow in May in New England. Yes, it would be unusual if it fell at sea level. However, it is not that unusual at all for snow to fall in the Green and White Mountains during May.

In fact, there have been many notable heavy snowstorms in the mountains during May. Just a few years ago, many locations in the Adirondacks in New York, the Green Mountains in Vermont, and White Mountains in New Hampshire, actually had quite a big snowstorm on Memorial Day weekend!

During this time of year, it may not be cold enough here at sea level for it to snow. But add some elevation, say 3000 ft or higher, and there’s a better than 50/50 chance of you seeing snow during May.

If you live far enough north, in northern Maine for instance, snow happens in May, much like down here during April. while we’re getting ready for summer, the folks up there are only now starting to see signs of spring. Be glad you don’t live there! The winters are awfully long!

Speaking of summer, we are now just one week away from my official summer forecast! After the cold start to May, many welcomed the warm weather of this past week.

I know the trees certainly did, as the leaves seemed to have popped open overnight, thanks to the warmer temperatures of this past week. This is true, especially inside of Rt 128 heading into the city.

If you live north of the city, heading into southern New Hampshire, the trees are only now beginning to bloom. This is due to all the unseasonably cold temperatures we experienced during the first week of May.

Leaves may not be fully out until the last week of May, even the start of June, up there. This is maybe a week or two later than average.

Similar to when the leaves begin to change color in the fall, the weather has a lot to do with when foliage begins to bloom in the spring. It’s Mother Nature’s safety mechanism not to bloom things too early, as a late season cold snap can damage blossoms.

We’ve certainly had our share of late season cold snaps this spring. I learned that this summer’s peach trees were severely damaged this spring, due to freezing temperatures.

It’s unfortunate when these things occur. But make no mistake about it, Mother Nature has a purpose for all these events. There’s a reason for everything.

Enough about talking about late season cold snaps, unusual snowfalls and blustery winds. People want to know when summer is coming and staying!

It’s been the same old story so far this spring. We finally get a couple warm days here, only to be squashed south by strong cold fronts diving down out of Canada.

Computer models have been no help! For weeks now, they’ve been forecasting warmer air to blast into New England, sending everyone scrambling for the air conditioners.

The real culprit in this whole mess has been the persistant Greenland block this spring. Just when you think it’s breaking down, it fires back up again, and deflects the warm air from really flowing in here.

This, in conjuction with the latent heating and cooling effect, has delayed the onset of real warm weather from arriving to much of eastern New England this spring. Remember, the ocean takes longer to heat up than the land this time of year.

This promotes chilly onshore winds along the coast, delaying the onset of spring. Believe it or not, this has been more of a normal spring around here, than one would think.

So when computer models are showing warm to hot weather arriving for the last week of May, why should I believe it this time? Why will this be different from what’s been happening?

Well, the answer is not so easy. Even some professional meteorologists shy away from forecasting more than a week out in patterns such as this.

We are in a state of flux right now. Not only are we transitioning from winter to summer, but we are also transitioning form a record strong El Nino, on our way to a La Nina by next winter.

I have to admit, it’s concerning to me, that we continue to get these repetitive cool blasts coming down out of Canada. I mentioned a couple weeks a go, I base a lot of my long term forecast on current trends.

Last year, we had a stretch of 9 months of above average temperatures, which began last July, and didn’t end until this past March.

Now, with April ending up colder than normal, is May and the following summer months going to follow suite? Long range computer forecasts are saying no.

They’ve been pretty consistant for several months, calling for a hotter than normal summer here in New England this year. Depending on how quickly the La Nina develops, I more or less agree with this forecast.

For sure, the atmosphere is complicated, and a lot can happen. I always say, the weather is going to do what the weather wants to do, despite what computer models say.

Aside from computer models, I like to look from clues from Mother Nature. Unlike in winter, there are far less clues given as to what type of a summer we’re going to have.

Not to give too much away from my forecast next week, I still like my ideas of a hotter than normal summer coming our way this year. A good sign for this to happen would to have a slug of hot weather right around Memorial Day weekend.

Over the years, I have noted, when it gets hot around this time of the year, we are more than likely going to get several more hot several more hot spells over the course of the summer.

Another good clue, would be to get a heat wave right around the summer solstice. This too, is another good indication Mother Nature is giving us to be prepared for hot weather!

I also follow cycles very carefully. Hot summers go in cycles. It seems as if they build into New England over a course of several years. I believe after a couple sub par summers as far as heat goes, we are on the upswing to swelter again!

Two years ago was a very chilly summer, with only some 7 ninety degree days being recorded. Last year turned out to be exactly normal, with 14 days of 90+ weather. This was after a very cool start to the season.

This year?? Well, you will have to read my summer forecast next week to see how many 90 degree days I’m forecasting for this summer!

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Chilly to start out, then warmer!

For your Monday, expect a mixture of sun and puffy cumulus clouds. It will be windy, and unseasonably cool today, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 50’s.

Snowshowers up north will begin to diminish later today. Hopefully, this will be the last we speak of snow until next October or so!

If skies clear out tonight, and winds slacken, many rural areas may drop into the 30’s, with a touch of frost. Low temperatures should fall into the low 40’s in urban areas.

Still, very chilly for this time of year, so please protect the tender plants. It’s situations like this, which reminds us not to begin planting, until after May 15th.

After a sunny start, clouds will be on the increase during the day on Tuesday. It will be milder with highs in the mid 60’s. A low pressure system will pass south of New England tomorrow night and early Wednesday.

If you live south of the Mass. Pike, there will be a period of rain, heaviest of which will be along the south coast of New England. Wednseday may start off with some showers, but things should tend to dry out during the afternoon. Winds will be coming in off the ocean, so expect it to be cooler again, with highs only near 60.

For the period of Thursday through Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies, and a warming trend! Watch for temperatures to be in the lower 70’s Thursday, mid 70’s on Friday, and possibly near 80 on Saturday!

Another storm system will be approaching the area on Sunday, so expect increasing clouds once again, and the threat of late day showers. This is not a certainty…it may very well end up dry the whole day.

Thereafter, we may have even warmer weather move in sometime next week! So yes, I do see a much warmer second half of May on the way!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be publishing my 2016 New England summer forecast! I will also have a peek at the Memorial Day weekend forecast! In the meantime, have the light jacket handy today, but break out the shorts by Saturday!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Finally…A Break!! 5/9/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a happy Mother’s Day! As has been the case all last week, the weather left nothing to be desired for. After some welcome breaks of sunshine on Friday, we were socked back in the clouds and damp weather on Saturday.

Yesterday was a changeable day. Certainly not a washout, but skies were threatening at times, and there were areas of showers which dampened many communities, especially during midday.

Later in the afternoon, a sharp cold front swept through the area, with clearing skies, and gusty winds. In fact, you needed a jacket if you were spending any time outdoors.

NECN’s long time meteorologist Tim Kelly tweeted some rather shocking statistics last evening. If you thought it’s been cold around Boston the past couple weeks, you’re correct! Boston’s average temperature for the first week of May, was 47.4 degrees. This is the coldest start to May in Boston in 81 years!

It’s been brutal! If you read my blog regularly, you hear me mentioning to watch out for the Greenland block…especially in the spring.

Even myself, who studies these patterns and know how nasty it can get, was surprised at the strength and tenacity of this particular block!

It’s so sneaky how it creeps up on you. A couple weeks ago, I could see pressures building up over Greenland. It looked impressive, but with so many earlier false alarms, I didn’t take it seriously.

Then…it only took one, small, innocent looking storm diving southeast from Ontario, Canada, towards the mid-Atlantic region. This is where things went haywire. Computer models definitely have a difficult time with Greenland blocks.

Because pressures were building over Greenland, this forces the jet stream to buckle south of New England, forcing this area of low pressure and cold northeast winds to develop along the coast of New England.

The combination of high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south, is a stormy and cold pattern for eastern New England.

The result is days of inclement weather, with much below average temperatures feeding in from the Canadian Maritimes from the northeast. Computer models want to prematurely break down these blocks much too quickly.

Before we knew it, a day or two of damp weather turned into a week of bone chilling, awful rainy weather, that puts the chill of winter time weather to shame.

Another long time great Boston meteorologist, Barry Burbank, coined this pattern, “the wheel of misfortune.” This is because the circulation of the storm is blocked from moving away from the east coast, and areas of moisture keep pinwheeling counterclockwise in from the Atlantic ocean.

And the process keeps repeating itself over and over, until the system either weakens or gets booted out. Occasionally, these blocks develop during winter, and can lead to excessive amounts of snowfall in eastern New England.

But it’s not winter. And folks want to know when is this nonsense going to END! Countless of friends and family have been asking me when is real spring going to arrive?

Well, I got some good news! We are experiencing some real spring weather today, and will continue to have some nice weather this week!

True, the summer solstice does not officially arrive until June, 21st this year. However, meteorological summer is just a few short weeks away! So thoughts on a beautiful spring may not be in the cards this year.

It’s looking more and more to me, that we’re just going to go from the feel of winter, right into summer this year!  The running joke around here is that we don’t get much of a spring, it just goes from winter to summer.

With all that being said, my thoughts on the upcoming summer have not changed. It’s actually a good thing we had all this blocking, cold, & damp weather here in the spring. It’s good to get this type of pattern done & over with.

If I were to take a poll with folks to see if they would put up with some cold and rainy weather during the spring, for a hot & sunny summer, I’m sure the majority would vote for the latter. When summer arrives, it’s going to be glorious this year!

In the short range, we may have to endure one more cloudy, damp & cool period. After a few nice days this week, another unusually  storm is going to send a sharp trough of low pressure towards New England later this week.

As this trough approaches New England, it will amplify and stall along the coast. Not to worry! I do not see this storm stalling for a week this time. I will discuss more about this inclement weather shortly in my forecast.

After this storm pulls out early next week, computer models are repacing high pressure with low pressure and cold over Greenland.

This, in conjuction with a trough of low pressure in the west, will help build a ridge of high pressure along the east coast, including much of New England!

If this is true, we may very well be scrambling for the air conitioners sometime later next week! Looking further ahead to this summer, I’m expecting a similar pattern to repeat itself across much of the eastern part of the country, including New England.

Unlike the past couple summers, which featured higher pressure over Canada, and lower pressure over the United States, I’m expecting the opposite this summer.

This summer, I’m expecting lower pressure over Greenland and Canada. This should keep these areas colder than normal this summer.

When this happens, the main jet stream tightens up, and retreats into northern Canada. This allows sub tropical rigdes of high pressure to build off the east coast, sending hotter than normal weather into much of the east coast, including here in southern New England.

I will continue to monitor these trends over the next couple weeks, and update everyone further next week. My official summer forecast will be published just a couple weeks from today!

Now for a brief weather history segment. A nice friend was thoughtful enough to send me a message today about a very significant storm which occurred on this date way back in 1977! Yes, I remember it! Do you?

It was the Mother’s Day snowstorm, which struck on May 9th, 1977. For many, it was the biggest late season snowstorm ever recorded.

Because the storm hit so late in the season, it resulted in severe tree damage and power outages across the region. After all, the leaves had already bloomed on the trees!

As would be expected this time of year, most of the accumulating snow fell in elevated areas, away from the ocean. However, considering the late date, snow did fall even close to the coast!

For instance, on top of Blue Hill, in Milton, recorded 7″ of snow. Even here in West Roxbury, 2″ inches of heavy wet snow fell. If you lived in parts of West Newton up to 4 to 6″ of snow fell with major tree damage.

Add elevation and further inland, Worcester received an astounding 13″ of snow! Some hilly terrain in central Massachusetts and northern Connecticut actually recorded nearly 20″of snow from the late season storm! As is the case with many things in life, things could always be worse!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Nice for a few days, then going down hill next weekend.

Expect beautiful weather for the rest of today, with deep blue skies, and milder temperatures, with highs in the lower 60’s. Watch for chilly temperatures tonight!

Still too early to start growing things outdoor with a spring pattern like this! With clear skies, and light winds, temperatures will fall to the low to mid 30’s in much of the interior of New England, with frost advisories. It will be a bit warmer in urban areas such as Boston, with lows near 40.

For the period of Tuesday through Thursday, mainly sunny and warmer weather! There may be some high clouds filtering the sun on tuesday, otherwise, there should be a good amount of sun.

Tomorrow should warm up to 65 degrees, Wednesday near 70, and Thursday possibly into the lower 70’s! Nights should also be milder, with lows mainly in the upper 30’s across the rural areas, and upper 40’s in urban areas.

Friday may start off dry, but clouds will be on the increase during the day. Because of the cloudy weather, temperatures will not be as warm.

In addition, rain will be approaching the area during the afternoon, from the southwest. Friday night looks wet, with lows in the 40’s and lower 50’s. Right now, the weekend looks to be on the unsettled & cooler side.

Saturday may begin damp, might brighten up around midday, only to have showers develop again during the afternoon.

Sunday will be cooler, with highs only in the 50’s, with showers falling at any time during the day. As I mentioned earlier, another surge of warmer weather may arrive later next week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be fine tuning my summer forecast, so check in for that! I will also let you know whether we can finally say goodbye to the Greenland block for this spring! In the meantime, enjoy the warmer weather this week, we deserve a break!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

~Happy Birthday wishes to my brother John, on Wednesday!~

First Week Of May…YUCK! 5/2/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a great weekend! It certainly was a split decision weatherwise. Saturday was a beauty, with deep, cobalt blue skies, and mild temperatures. Sunday was the complete opposite, with a winter looking gray sky, light rain, and November like temperatures.

My family celebrated Greek Orthodox Easter yesterday. We had a wonderful day, despite the gloomy weather! Family members were surprised when I announced that Christmas featured warmer weather than Easter this year!

It’s true, but how is this possible? If you recall, Christmas was one of the warmest days ever recorded on that date. Many locations, including in New Hampshire, enjoyed temperatures near 70 degrees…on Christmas Day!

Yesterday, on my Easter, temperatures struggled to reach the lower 50’s, then actually fell into the 40’s as the heavier rain moved in later in the day. It really turned into a cold, wet day. This is some 20 to 25 degrees colder than it was on Christmas Day.

How is this possible? The answer lies in our ocean temperatures. Because of latent heating and cooling, it can be a lot cooler than one would think, this time of the year. In the spring, it takes longer for the ocean to warm up than the land.

Same is true in the fall, when the ocean takes longer to cool off than the land. This is why our falls are milder than one would think.

Because much of New England sticks out into the Atlantic Ocean, we tend to stay colder deeper into the spring, than areas to our southwest.

You would be quite surprised if you were to travel southwest of Boston, say towards Hartford, Conn., to see how much more advanced the tree foliage and spring blossoms are compared to around here.

And if you’re coming from New Hampshire, forget about it! I was traveling from Portsmouth, N.H. region to Boston yesterday, and you would think it was mid-winter still! It wasn’t until I got to about Route 128 before I began to see signs of spring.

As I drove closer into the city, things were finally looking more green. This is because the city is warmer than rural areas, because of urban heat island effect. Still, it looks like we’re about a week or two behind schedule with tree foliage.

As was the winter, it’s been a strange spring around here. March continued the warm theme of the winter, with temperaures averaging a good 5 degrees above normal.

We are now two thirds of the way through spring, and one could argue that it feels like we’re going backwards! April was our first below average month in Boston, since last June!

The month started out with back to back snow events in Boston. We never really recovered from there. Repetitive chilly to downright wintery cold shots, kept spring from fully arriving in New England this year.

I was quite surprised when I woke up to a frost in the West Roxbury area last Wednesday morning. This came after 3 to 4″ of wet snow fell up in central New Hampshire on Tuesday. Undoubtedly, these unusually cold nights has certainly taken its toll on our spring extravaganza this year.

So what’s going on? Are we ever going to get any sustained warm weather this spring? Well, as I have mentioned in my post a while back, I truly believe that this is going to be one of those years when we go directly from winter to summer. There’s certainly not much nice weather coming up for the first week in May.

This in itself is not too surprising. It was just last year when we had a very summery month of May, with many locations seeing one of their warmest May’s on record. In addition, it was also one of the driest May’s on record.

May is one of those swing months. It’s very similar to the month of November. As November is the month right before winter begins, May is the month right before summer begins.

It can go either way. Sometimes, May can very summery, as November can be wintery. Other years, May can be an extension of winter, as November an extension of summer.

Remember last November? The first 10 days of November was some 10 degrees above average! It was outrageously warm.

Looking at the long range guidance this morning, I see May being more of an extension of winter this year. I know this is not what folks want to hear, but believe me, it’s better we get this pattern now, hear in spring, rather than in the summer.

I know it’s quite dreary out there, but this is more normal than not. It’s fairly typical that we get blocking patterns this time of the year. This can lead to days of cloudy, damp and chilly weather, especially here in eastern Massachusetts.

The big question is, will this pattern break in time for Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start to summer? Right now, computer models are forecasting this block to break down and lift out of New England sometime during the last 10 days of the month.

What’s concerning, is that they have been saying this was going to to happen several times during April, only to fall right back into the same old pattern.

It’s still so, so early. We must be patient in spring patterns like this. With that being said, I believe May will end up with below normal temperatures, and above normal precipitation this year. This does not mean rain and cold every day, just the overall average.

We will have periods of some fine late spring, early summer weather. As the Atlantic Ocean slowly warms up, we may see an abrupt change in the pattern as we head towards Memorial Day.

The oceans are rapidly undergoing major changes. We are currently trasitioning from a very strong El Nino, to a La nina. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino, with cold water in the southern Pacific. On average, El Nino typically brings cooler, wetter summers to New England. And La nina usually hot and dry.

If La Nina can establish itself soon enough, we may indeed see a very hot summer this year here in New England.  When this happens around Memorial Day, this should herald in a much more summery pattern!

At this point, I am still calling for a hotter and drier than normal summer this year. My official summer forecast will be written on May 23rd!

What kind of winter does New England experience in La Nina conditions? There is only one word…variable! Very difficult to predict La Nina winters.

However, I can say this. La Nina typically brings cold and stormy weather to the Pacific Northwest, western Canada, and Alaska. This is the exact opposite of El Nino.

La Nina is also the opposite of El Nino for the southern tier of the United States, including Florida and up into the mid Atlantic region, where mild and dry weather is typically the rule.

New England could go either way. Some La Nina’s can feature cold and snowy conditions. Others, warm and dry, with below normal snowfall, especially in southern New England. La Nina’s typically bring early snow to our region, only to fade around Christmas time.

One other aspect about La Nina’s, we typically see less severe nor’easters, and east coast winter storms in general. So, if you were looking for a break, you may be in luck over the next couple years!

Of course, there are many other variables, which can alter these “typical” conditions, and nothing is gauranteed. I will be monitoring these changes as we head into the summer months.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I am rating this week a 2 out of 10…ouch. No need to get too specific here. It’s going to be a lousy week of weather around here.

Last week, we were on the good side of the Omega block, this week, it has retrograded westward, and we are now on the dreary side of the block.

Expect generally cloudy and gloomy weather for today, right through Saturday! In addition, expect periods of rain throughout the period. The wettest periods will be today, at times tomorrow, into tomorrow night. There may be a brief break Wednesday.

However, another unusual storm will dive south of New England on Thursday. This will reintroduce northeast winds, chilly weather, and periods of rain…some of which will be heavy.

This storm will be a slow mover, and may linger into Saturday. Temperatures will be below average, with highs mainly in the 50’s, and lows in the 40’s.

Right now, Mother’s Day is iffy. If the storm pulls out, we may get a break before the next storm arrives. There may be some breaks of sun, with temperatures responding into the low 60’s.

However, Some computer models is spreading rain into the region, just as quick as the other storm leaves, along with continued chilly weather. I hope we get that break so we can all enjoy the day!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing in more on our upcoming summer patterns. I will also be on the lookout for a break in this awful pattern!

In the meantime, you know how we appreciate something more when we work for it? The same could be said for all of this inclement weather. I’m sure we we will appreciate the summer more, after we get through this!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Still Chilly & Unsettled! 4/25/16

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! The weather here in Boston was fairly typical for this time of the year. Saturday started off with overcast skies and showers. Later in the day, the showers moved off the coast, and the sun came out before setting.

After a chilly start, Sunday turned into a spectacular day, with nearly 100% of the possible sunshine, and light winds. I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy the fine weather!

Whether you were getting the garden ready, taking a walk in the park, or a drive to the ocean, it was a splendid day, indeed.

As is typical for this time of year, coastal communities were about 10 degrees cooler than inland locations, with highs ranging from the lower 50’s to lower 60’s across the region.

Still, with the strengthening April sun, it actually felt warmer than what the thermometer said. During the spring season, having the sun out makes all the difference in the world.

After the very warm end of last week, a cold front moved through the region on Friday night.

This cold front pressing into the very warm airmass, is what caused the rain showers. We are now in a much cooler air mass than what we had last week. Had it been cloudy yesterday, temperatures would of been a good 10 degrees colder than what they actually were.

Enough of the small talk, let’s get right into the details of our current pattern! Believe it or not, we are more than halfway through meteorological spring already!

With March being so warm, many believed that we were on our way to an early summer. However, as is most often the case, Mother Nature had other plans.

Things have cooled off quite a bit this April. Though we’ve had some brief bursts of warm weather, colder than average temperatures have been the rule so far this month. Though the days seem to be tolerable, the nights have been on the cold side.

Don’t forget, we started the month with back to back moderate snow events, just as you thought we were done with the white stuff!

And it’s still not quite over! If you live in central & southern New Hampshire and Maine, especially just inland away from the ocean, you may awaken to snow falling tomorrow morning! I’m not expecting a big storm, but considering May begins on Sunday, 1 to 3″ of snow is noteworthy.

It won’t be any bargain down here, either. As a wave of low pressure passes to our south, winds are going to shift into the northeast, and the weather is going to turn cold and rainy tomorrow.

With the chilly weather expected for the balance of the week, it looks like a lock that April will be our first below normal month since last June!

Is this the start of another trend for the upcoming summer? Will we now go into a tailspin of 10 months of below average temperatures? If this were to happen, it would cut right through the summer months into next fall. This would be devastating news for those who love hot, sunny summers.

I have to admit, a couple weeks ago, a hot summer looked to be a lock. Computer models were all pretty much in a agreement of a hot summer. I’m not pulling the plug on this scenerio just yet, but there are a couple things that concern me.

Some computer models have been wavering a bit on whether it’s going to be hot here in New England. Rain is good in the spring, but if we get too much, it means the sun has to work that much harder to remove the moisture and dry out the soil.

Right now, the early call for this summer is still for a hotter than normal summer. As painful as it is, it’s actually a good thing that we’re having this Greenland block and chilly pattern here in April.

Believe me, this is not the type of pattern you would like to see settling in around Memorial Day. When that happens, it could foul up a warm pattern getting established at the beginning of the summer.

Though there are exceptions, I’m a believer in quick starts. Last year, real summer pattern didn’t kick in until mid July. By this time, summer was already half over. Many felt it wasn’t much of a summer last year.

However, once it settled in, it really got going in a big way! We had all of our 14 ninety degree days the second half of summer. Since summer extends into September, many felt short changed, as it was time to go back to school and work.

As it turned out, September had 4 ninety degree days last year. This is 4 times the normal amount. In the end, it turned out to be a slightly warmer than normal summer, with exactly amount of 90 degree days that we normally receive. Much of this is all relative, and is based on perception rather than reality.

If a blocking pattern were to develop, you would rather like to see it in late winter and during spring. Which is exactly what has happened this spring. This way, as we approach the summer solstice, we can welcome in a true summer pattern.

This means building a Bermuda high SOUTH of New England. When this happens, the clockwise circulation around the high, transports warmer weather from our southwest into New England.

In most cases, we don’t want anything to do with a Greenland block in the summer. This would promote high pressure NORTH of New England, bringing cooler weather, and allowing low pressure to pass south of New England with periods of cool, damp weather.

In some rare instances, like two years ago, we actually had a Greenland block for much of the summer. It happened to be a very stable, blocking pattern, which fed cool, dry air down from Canada most of the summer.

This provided New England with a very pleasant summer, with very warm, dry days, and cool nights. Some thought it was the best summer, ever. In most cases, I would not want a Greenland block during the summer months, but in that case, it certainly paid off for us.

With the crashing El Nino, this has left a very small window for winterlike pattern to establish itself , here in April. I believe as we head into the second half of May, especially around Memorial Day, our summer pattern will kick into gear. But…we have to be patient!

It’s possible this pesky block is going to persist well into May this year. This would mean cooler weather, along with periods of damp conditions.

How’s green up going across the region? Well, the warm weather last week certainly has helped to move things along. After a somewhat dreary start to the month, with many of the trees not foliated yet, I have noticed many trees blooming their flowers this past weekend.

It apprears to me we are right about on time this year. With the cooler weather this week, it may slow the process down a bit. With that being said, most leaves should be bloomed by Mother’s Day. If not, certainly by the following week.

Grass has turned green and some have begun mowing. This is right about on time, with grass beginning to really grow and mowing to begin in earnest by May 1st. Further up north, things won’t get underway for another couple weeks. Hang in there, it’s coming!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect overcast skies for the balance of your Monday, perhaps some sunny breaks? Temperatures will feel mild, with highs in the lower 60’s, with a low threat of seabreezes today.

Things will begin to deteriorate overnight. An unusual storm will be tracking southeast from the Great Lakes. As this storm approaches, rain showers will begin spreading into New England. As mentioned above, temperatures will turn cold enough in New Hampshire and Maine that these showers will fall in the form of snow!

Many north of the Massachusetts border will wake up to a slushy inch or two of snow tomorrow morning. If you live in a location above a 1000 ft, you could get 3 or even 4″ of wet snow.

Here in Boston, winds will shift into the northeast and it will turn into quite a nasty day here as well, with rain much of the day, and colder temperatures. Highs will only be in the lower 40’s.

Any leftover showers may change to some wet snowflakes even close by to Boston tomorrow evening. Later, skies will clear, and temperatures will fall into the 30’s.

Wednesday looks to be mainly sunny and cool. Remember, even below average temperatures this time of year can still yield temperatures in the 50’s. If you’re plan on going to the Red Sox game Wednesday evening, bring a winter jacket!

It will be dry and cold, with temperatures in the 40’s during the game. Later at night, temperatures will fall into the 30’s, even in Boston, and some 20’s in rural suburban areas…brrrr!

A weak storm will pass south of New England later Thursday. This will bring an increase in clouds during the day, with highs near 60. There may be a brief period of light showers later Thursday night into Friday morning, but a heavy rain event is not anticipated.

Expect clearing skies later Friday, and into Saturday. This period looks to be mainly on the dry and cool side, with highs in the 50’s and lower 60’s.

Right now, next Sunday looks to be dry and chilly. However, a storm approaching from the south may increase clouds during the day. There’s a chance that some rain moves into parts of the area by late in the day.

There are timing issues here, so please check in with local forecasts to fine tune the weather on Sunday. Happy Easter to Greeks and other Orthodox religions!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the month of April, and previewing what we should expect for the month of May. Where is the time going?

In the meantime, keep the snow shovels handy up in New Hampshire, the umbrellas in Boston, and the heat on for everyone. In other words, typical spring weather here in New England!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy Patriots Day, Everyone! 4/18/16

Hello! Happy Patriots Day! Growing up and still residing in Boston, there is no other day that I feel more proud to be a Bostonian, than today!

Not only does this day hold historical significance, but the Boston Marathon is also run today. Add the Red Sox playing at Fenway Park, and you have an all around fun day, enjoyed by most everyone!

Hard to believe it was three years ago when the Marathon was marred by a hideous terrorist attack. The bombs killed three civilians, and injured a staggering 264 other people, many severely. Two other police officers were trajically killed from the incident, and one of the bombers was also thankfully killed.

The incident set off a man hunt for the terrorists like no other, witnessed around the world. Folks learned, very quickly, that law enforcement in this state do not fool around with crimes like this.

Federal, state and local officials collaberated in a unified stance, to bring swift and severe justice to the killers. They shut this city down for several days, until they surrounded and captured the bombers in Watertown, Ma. of all places.

In a scene that could only be described as surreal, a wild shoot out in the quiet suburban neighborhood, lead one of the bombers to actually run over and kill his own brother. He was later captured hiding in a residence boat, barely alive.

We have our faults here in Boston. But when it comes to viscious attacks against innocent citizens, we stand together, which makes this city Boston Strong!

My father always said to us growing up, you need to stay together. If there’s just one stick, they can easily break you. However, if you have six sticks, and stay together, it’s much more difficult, if not impossible, to break.

Such could be said for the residents of Boston. President Obama said after the incident, “Boston is a tough and resilient town; so are its people.”

Not to say that other folks from other cities are not. It’s just that when trajedy strikes, the true colors of your city show. If I had a choice, I would pick Boston!

So what else makes Patriots’ Day so special? Well for one, this is a private holiday mainly for Massachusetts and Maine. Yes, at one point Maine and Massachusetts were considered one state!

It’s not a federal holiday, however, that does not diminish the importance of the day.

On this day, we commemorate the beginning of the Revolutionary War in 1775. Paul Revere, a North End locksmith, jumped on his horse and rode out to Lexington to warn the Minuteman troops that the British were coming!

Yes, we had a legitimate war here in the Boston area, as we fought the British to help gain our independence for our country! In fact, it was the following year in 1776 that America declared its independence!

Among some of the battles fought in our area were: the battle at Bunker Hill in Charlestown, Castle Island in South Boston, and in the filelds of Lexington and Concord, Ma.

Synominous with the Marathon, the Red sox play their annual game today at Fenway Park!

So what about our weather? Well, I’m happy to report that it’s going to be a beautiful day for all outdoor festivities! Early morning temperatures have soared into the 60’s and low 70’s away from the coast.

Later today, a seabreeze will develop, and chill coastal locations back into the 50’s. This seabreeze will begin to penetrate inland the deeper we go into the afternoon. This will be a refreshing change as the runners approach Boston. Last year, it was cold and rainy.

Many folks aslo associate Patriots Day with the start of the really nice weather here in New England.

As forecasted, the first two weeks of April have not been very springlike. In fact, it’s been so chilly, that the trees have not even flowered yet!

It certainly still has that “winter” look across the region. Normally by this time of the year, many of the trees would have started to flower. Shortly thereafter, the baby leaves come out, and reach full maturity by Mother’s Day.

So, we’re running a bit behind. This was most likely due to the frosty start we had to April. Remember, it was just a couple weeks ago we were shoveling snow to start April! Temperatures have also been routinely dropping below freezing at night. This does not help the cause.

Moving forward, I can’t rule out seeing a few more wet snowflakes here and there, but I believe the real accumulating snow is finished for the season. There’s always that possibility of snow around here right up until Mother’s Day.

As we wrap up another winter season, I like to reflect back, and see how I did with my winter forecast. Overall, I would give myself a B-for an overall grade.

Not to make excuses, but it was a very difficult winter to forecast. As well as I did last year, I would say I was a bit off the mark this year. Too many conflicting signals wreaked havoc with the snowfall forecast.

With that being said, I was one snowstorm away from hitting my target. With all that being said, I felt that it was a fascinating winter. Despite the very warm weather, there were many light to moderate snow events. There were also countless of other big storms, that just missed us.

Typically, when we have such a warm November, we normally don’t even see half the snowfall which we received. Remember, Boston was coming off a historic winter last year. Mother Nature could of very easily shut down the snow machine for good this winter.

In reality, many communities south of Boston to the Cape actually received a bit above normal snowfall for the season! Boston’s average snowfall at Logan Airport is about 44.”

Boston stands at 36.1″ for the season. I forecasted a the Boston area to receive between 45 and 65″ of snow for the season. Focusing more on having a more average season closer to the 45.

I believe I did a very good job at recognizing the overall pattern of the winter. It was forecasted to be a back loaded winter, which it certainly was. Remember, up to January 1st, Boston had not even received 2″ of snowfall.

We knew it was going to be a very warm start to winter. And in fact, it was so warm in November and December, it certainly skewed the numbers for the much colder January and February.

But, there’s no sugar coating it. With the excessively warm March, it turned out to be the second warmest winter on record! Back to back snow events at the start of April certainly helped beef up the snow amounts across the Boston area.

Where I was totally off the mark was up in northern New England. You could make an case that it may have turned out to be one of the warmest and least snowy winter on record.

Looking ahead to next winter, the record setting El Nino is on its way out this summer. In it’s place, it’s polar opposite La Nina will be developing in the Pacific Ocean. La Nina winters here in New England are even more variable than El Nino.

Many La Nina’s are warm and dry in southeastern New England. La Nina’s are more cold and wet across the Pacific northwest and Alaska, and warm and dry across the southeastern United States and across the mid-Atlantic region. Sometimes up to southern New England.

However, looking back at the records, there is also a about an even chance of a snowy winter as well. La Nina winters are also known as I90 winters. Meaning more snow falls from about the location of the Mass Pike on north. Expect the northern jet stream to be more dominant, with frequent snowfalls and cold across the north.

With the ocean temperatures completely different than this year, you can be sure that a very different winter will be in store for much of New England next year.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect filtered sunshine and breezy conditions for the rest of today.

Marathon runners will be encountering changing wind directions and temperatures. It will warm into the 70’s across the interior of the route.

However, as runners approach Boston, winds will shift into the east, suddenly dropping temperatures into the 50’s! There will be no threat of rain today.

Tonight will feature thickening clouds with a chance of showers after 11 PM. Temperatures will only fall into the 40’s.

Tuesday will be cooler, with highs only in the 50’s. It may be damp with some showers in the morning, but just cloudy skies during the afternoon.

Tuesday night will be cool, but mainly dry, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Wednesday and Thursday look to feature mainly dry weather, with highs in the 50’s on Wednesday, warming into the 60’s on Thursday. If we get enough sunshine, it may warm up into the low 70’s!

There will be another threat of showers on Friday, which may persist into Friday night and into Saturday morning.

Thereafter, it should dry out during Saturday afternoon, with highs in the 50’s.

Right now, Sunday is looking like a fine spring day, with sunshine, and highs in the lower 60’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a sneak peek into what our summer may bring us. I know many will be interested with that information! I will also have an update with our spring blooms and tree foliage.

In the meantime, it’s a great day to be a Bostonian!  It’s even better when the weather is as nice as it is today! Good luck to all the marathon runners! Happy Patriots Day, and Go Red Sox!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Play Ball! Can It Be Spring Now? 4/11/16

Hello! It was another chilly weekend here in Boston. Saturday saw increasing clouds and a cold wind. Sunday was sunny, but still had a chill to the air. Certainly feeling more like March than April.

As the saying goes, it could of been worse. A developing storm, passed just to our southeast on Saturday. Had this storm tracked closer, you guessed it, snow would of been the predominant form of precipitation here in Boston. In fact, parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey did indeed see a late season snowfall.

Nor’easters, back door cold fronts, sudden freezes, snow flurries, unseasonable late season snowfalls…folks are tired of it. Today is opening day for the Red Sox, and many saw sleet falling this morning! For a winter that took forever to finally arrive, it seems like it’s taking forever to leave!

Enough, already! I love winter more than anyone, but even I’m ready for spring to take over. We are now entering the time of year, when it’s still cold out, but not cold enough to snow.

Can I completely rule out any more snow this season? I’m afraid to say, not quite just yet! After a unseasonably warm March, April has turned the tables, and has been more winterlike, than anything else.

The reasons are complicated. A lot has to do with the crashing El Nino. That, in conjunction with a developing Greenland block, has allowed winter a second life of sorts.

If you have been reading my blog, you’ll recall that my forecast was for a back ended winter. Meaning winter would linger deeper into the spring, than what’s typical.

From what I can see, this is going to be a classic case of “suddenly, it’s summer!” I can just picture it now. Everyone in the country is enjoying summer weather during May, except here in New England.

Then, right around Memorial Day, we’ll all have the heat on for the start of the weekend, then be blasting the a.c.’s by the end of it! From there on, the a.c.’s won’t shut off until Labor Day!

Reviewing computer data this morning, I still see no sustained warm weather here in New England through the end of the month. Does this mean no warm days…no.

There will be some bursts of warm weather from time to time. But be prepared for temperatures that are cooler than normal, more times than not, for the balance of the month.

Remember the latent heating and cooling effect. It takes longer for the oceans to heat up than the land, during the spring. Warmer air is lighter and rises quickly.

Cold air is more dense, and weighs more. This allows chilling sea breezes to sweep in from the ocean, keeping the coast colder. The opposite happens in the fall. Warm ocean takes longer to cool off than the land, keeping the coast warmer in the fall.

If your’re new to New England, this is not so unusual. We’ve been spoiled in recent years, with some glorious weather in spring.

The other day, I went to visit my dad at Forest Hills cemetary. I’ll never forget the weather the year he passed away, back in April of 2010. Other than the the spring of 2012, this was the warmest I had ever seen it.

In fact, it was more like summer than spring. Trees were already foliated, flowers were in full bloom, and grass was already being mowed.

Contrast that to this year. Early dafodiles were smashed to the ground by recent snows, trees not budding, and a slate grey sky gives a more wintery look than anything else. Temperatures routinely falling below freezing at night is also not helping out the cause.

There’s really no rhyme or reason to it. You really can’t rely on any type of pattern at any given time of the year around here. In the fall, when you think colder weather is coming, warm temperatures linger, sometimes to Christmas, like we saw this year. Now in the spring, when you think warm weather is coming…it snows out.

Spring patterns can be cruel. Systems slow down, and weather patterns stall. It’s been years since we’ve had a classic Greenland block here in New England.

When a Greenland block develops, high pressure builds north of New England, in Greenland. This forces the jet stream south of New England, allowing cold and sometimes stormy weather to persist. You can thank the Greenland block for last weeks snowy two day blitz!

Moving forward, how are we looking in terms of green up for our area? Well, despite the cold and snow, it looks like green up has already begun across the region.

Because of the very warm winter, the lawns have aleady turned green. I believe mowing will begin during the last week of April this year.

On average, Boston’s mowing season begins on May 1st, and goes to November 1st. This is a 6 month on, 6 month off schedule. This schedule may vary from time to time by up to two or even three weeks some years. So we’re not that far off from the average this year.

How about leaves on the trees. Back in March, it looked as if a very warm spring was on the way. I was beginning to think that the leaves would be out by mid April. The recent cold snaps and snow have surpressed the early blooms.

On average, trees begin to flower around April 20th. This process begins first along the coast, then spreads inland. Here in Boston, Most leaves are on the trees by Mother’s Day. Despite the warm March, we may actually be somewhat behind schedule right now.

Again, this is on average, and can vary by up to two weeks either side of this date. Up north, leaves aren’t fully out until around Memorial Day.

It’s at this time, that it’s safe to plant tomato plants and other vegetables in the garden. Believe it or not, frost can still be an issue in the interior of New England, right into the middle of May, or sometimes later!

As I mentioned earlier, I’m not 100% sure we’re done with seeing snow. Looking at some long range computer data, troughs of low pressure look to continue to swing through New England for the better part of the month.

It would not shock me, that one of these cold shots, meets up with some moisture to our south, to produce one more late season snow. I don’t see nothing again like last week, but a overnight accumulation of some wet snow is still not out of the question.

For this reason, I’m going to hold off my winter review and grade. Remember, it’s first flake to last. I can tell you this, my grade has been improving, due to late season snowfalls this year.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Temperatures will be mainly below normal this week, with near normal precipitation.

Expect mainly cloudy weather for the rest of this afternoon. If we’re lucky, the sun may break through from time to time. If you’re going to the game, it will be windy and on the chilly side, with temperatures in the mid 50’s. This is very close to average, but the clouds and wind will make it feel at least 10 degrees cooler. Bring a jacket!

Tonight will be on the dry side, with lows only dropping into the 40’s.

Watch for a period of rain and embedded heavy downpours on Tuesday. As a slow cold front pushes through the area, look for rain to end later in the afternoon. There will also be a wind shift into the north later in the day.

If you’re going to the game tomorrow night, bring a warm jacket. Temperatures will be falling into the 40’s. At least the wind will be letting up.

Wednesday is looking like a fairly nice day at this point. Expect mainly sunny weather, but temperatures will continue to be on the cool side, with highs only in the lower 50’s.

There will be more clouds on Thursday, with cool weather continuing. Right now it looks mainly dry, but a few scattered showers can not be ruled out.

Latest computer models have been trending dryer for late in the week. However, there will be an ocean storm meandering off our coast.

If the block sets up right, a nor’easter type of storm could lash the coast with rain, wind and cold temperatures. There’s just a good a chance, if not more, that this storm misses us, and we just end up with some scattered showers.

Temperatures will continue to be below normal. If the storm comes, it would only be near 40. If no storm, it would warm up to near 50.

Right now, if the block relaxes enough, Sunday could become sunny and warmer, with highs between 58 and 68, from the coast to inland.

At this point, Marathon Monday looks like a nice day to me, with similar temperatures. It should be sunny, with light winds.

This could mean a sea breeze developing along the coast during the afternoon. This would mean a head wind as runners head towards Boston. Good luck!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor this Greenland block, and let you know if I see it breaking down or not. I also may have my winter review and grade.

I may also have a sneak peek into what my thoughts are for this upcoming summer! In the meantime, baseball is back in Boston. Real spring weather can’t be too far away, right?

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter: Refuses To Give Up! 4/4/16

Good morning! Welcome to spring in New England! After 70 degree temperatures on Friday, the weekend turned rainy and colder on Saturday, and downright wintery on Sunday!

Heavy rain rapidly turned to a period of heavy wet snow early Sunday morning, turning the landscape into a winter wonderland. As the quick hitting storm intensified off the coast, north winds gusted up to 60 mph in spots, toppling trees, and knocking out power to some. A general 3 to 6″ of heavy wet snow fell across the area, but some higher elevation spots reported up to 8!”

If that were not enough, we woke up to steady snow falling again across the Boston area this morning. Amazingly, this storm is even colder than the first, with pure powdery snow quickly accumulating, here on April 4th!

Many folks are asking questions. The list of less than desirable adjectives describing our weather, are consistent with a confused New Englander who believed spring had actually sprung the first few days in March.

The answers are not easy. Our location on earth, makes us susceptable to just about anything. New England is located exactly half way between the North Pole and the Equator.

With the Atlantic Ocean directly to our east, tropical air to our south, and Canada a short distance to our north, rapid weather changes are bound to occur.

In addition, nearly all cyclones moving from west to east, typically come through New England at some point or another. This can come in the form of cold fronts, warm fronts, tropical storms, and intense nor’easters.

But it’s even more complicated than that. I mentioned  back in the fall, that the seasons have been displaced by a month or two. Remember how warm it was this past November and December?

Well, this had something to do with the surging El Nino, but it also had a lot to do with the unusually warm ocean temperatures currently on earth.

I talk about this a lot, but so much of our weather is hinged on latent heating and cooling. The oceans & sun are our main drivers of our weather. In the fall, it takes longer for the ocean to cool off than the land.

Because eastern New England sits right next to the Atlantic, it plays a huge part on our climate. If the ocean temperatures are warmer than normal, there’s a good chance of warm weather exending deep into the fall.

Same goes in the spring. It took all winter for that heat energy to finally be released. Now that the oceans have finally cooled, winter weather has finally arrived!

Think about it. Wasn’t it near 70 degrees last Christmas? Now, it’s snowing in April! There are others factors involved. El Nino, added even more heat energy into the atmosphere last fall.

This contributed to us having one of our warmest falls on record last year.

If you have been reading my posts, this sudden surge of winter should not come as too much of a surprise. I’ve been speaking of a back ended winter since November. How we got here, is a different story!

For the most part, this is how I envisioned the winter going. What I did not anticipate was the strength of the warm weather, extending deep into our winter.

With that being said, it has been a very interesting winter, in my opinion. It’s been very warm , on average, but we have had our share of wintery events…especially the second half of winter.

As I mentioned above, everything is taking it’s old sweet time. I rushed the El Nino collapse, thinking that it may begin to happen in January, leading to another stormy and cold February.

Well, as it turned out, El Nino lingered through Febraury, even into March. It’s not until recent days, tht the El Nino is collapsing quickly. This, along with the oceans finally cooling off, has lead to a sudden surge of winter type weather…here in April!

Winter weather is not unprecedented in April. We have been spoiled in recent years, with spring weather surging quickly into New England. As I mentioned in last weeks post, it can snow in April. Sometimes a lot! In fact, we have even had severe blizzards in April.

The saving grace, of course, is that the sun is so much stronger in April, snow doesn’t have a chance to stick around long.

However, there has been intances, when we’ve had unusually cold air masses coincide with snow, and very little melting occurs.

In fact, it was interesting to note, I noticed the snow lingered quite a bit after yesterday morning’s  snowfall. If you recall, the snowfall we received on the first day of spring, was gone by sunset.

Yesterday, plenty of snow remained in shady areas, even on some trees! I can only attribute it to much colder temperatures yesterday, than it was on the first day of spring storm.

Come to think about it, the snow on the first day of spring seems like a bad bad omen, now.

Last week I mentioned the streak of above average monthly temperatures we’ve been on since about last July. Looking at the long range guidance, I hinted that it may come to an end this April.

After reviewing more data this morning, I do indeed, believe that this streak may be in jeopardy. Computer models keep pushing the reversal of warmer weather back another week.

Now, we are looking at below normal temperatures, and in some cases, well below normal, until April 20th. It’s not out of the question, cold weather lingers through the month. I’m working on that, and will keep you updated with this development.

In addition, it’s not out of the question that we have not seen the last of snow just yet. Of course, as we get deeper into the month, it becomes more difficult for snow to fall in Boston, especially after the 15th.

However, it has happened in the past. Back in 1987, a late season snowstorm dumped 4″ of snow at Logan Airport, and up to 15″ in surrounding suburbs! This still stands as Boston’s biggest late season snowfall on record.

So what does this mean for our summer? Does this late season wintery weather change things for summer? No, I do not believe this at all. As I mentioned last week, I’m a believer in trends. The trends have been warmer than normal weather since last July.

If you like hot summers, it may be a good thing we’re getting a colder than normal month right now. If this streak were to continue into June or July, it could suddenly snap to cold in the middle of the summer.

This is exactly what we don’t want to happen. Long term forecasts are still forecasting above normal temperatures this summer. That in conjuction with a developing La Nina in the Pacific, point to a hotter than normal summer in New england this year.

Though my official summer forecast will not be published until May 23rd, I will be dropping plenty of hints as to what I’m thinking through the spring.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to do a brief weather history. back in 1982 on April 6th and 7th, a full fledged blizzard hit Boston! The Boston area was hit with between 12 and 15″ of wind driven powder!

I remember the storm well, and was fascinated by the intensity, and the frequent thunder and lightning throughout the day! So…it can be worse!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Not much spring weather. In fact, today will feel & look like a typical day in January! Expect snow to increase in intensity this afternoon.

With falling temperatures, the evening commute may be treacherous! It will be nearly 25 degrees colder than normal, with highs only in the 20’s!

Lucky the Red Sox are not opening at Fenway Park this week! Although the weather in Cleveland is no bargain either. Watch for snow to slowly diminish overnight, this after a general 3 to 6″ of total accumulation.

Tuesday will feature brighter skies, but it will remain on the cold side, with highs only in the 30’s. Despite the cold weather, most of the snow will melt where the sun hits.

We may be looking at record cold temperatures tomorrow night. Under clear skies, lows may plunge to 20 degrees in Boston, and the lower teens in the suburbs!

Wednesday will be a bit more tolerable, with sunshine, fading behind increasing clouds. With light winds, it will feel a bit better, with highs in the lower 40’s.

A storm approaching from the southwest, will spread rain into our area on Thursday. It will still be chilly, with highs in the upper 40’s.

Inclement weather will be the theme heading into the weekend. It will actually be turning progressively colder. Another low pressure may pass New England to our south on Saturday into Sunday.

This will have to be monitored closely. If the upper level low is able to capture the surface reflection, another unusually late season winter storm may occur.

Otherwise expect rain showers mixed with snow. If later computer models catch on to this idea, I will be sure to post an update, if I feel conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing just how long winter will linger on for. I planned on reviewing my winter forecast this week, but because it’s not over yet, I am delaying this review. Remember, it’s first flake to last!

I am also planning to discuss a breakdown of our spring timetable. In the meantime, keep the winter gear out! The all clear signal has not been sounded just yet! Please be safe out there!

Thanks for reading!

Pete