Spring Setback! 3/28/16

Hello! I hope everyone had a Happy Easter! Overall, it was a fairly typical March weekend across the region. As is typical this time of year, the chilliest spots were coastal areas, where temperatures struggled to reach the low 40’s. In addition, low clouds were stubborn to burn off, each day.

If you live in the interior of New England, temperatures were actually warmer, and you enjoyed mostly sunny skies for much of the weekend. Quite a contrast from folks who live near the coast.

Why such chilly temperatures along the coast? The answer to this question is quite simple. It all has to do with the weather phenomenon called latent heating and cooling.

Remember those warm days in late autumn? You can thank the warm ocean for that in the fall. It takes longer for the oceans to cool down than the land during the fall. This keeps coastal areas warmer than the interior during autumn.

However, coastal areas are paying the price for that now. During the spring, the oceans take longer to warm up than the land. This promotes chilly seabreezes to blow in from the ocean.

The process works like this. As the sun gets stronger, it warms the land up quickly in early spring. As that air rises off the land, cold, dense air rushes in from the ocean to fill that void.

Because the ocean is still cold this time of year, tempertures can be close to 20 degrees colder along the coast, than inland areas! In some years, this can be a brutally slow process to punch our way into summery weather.

This is why we have that famous saying that we all like to say around here, “it’s gonna go straight from winter to summer!” Living here my whole life, I would say this statement has merit!

Not every year, but I would say this is the case in about 5 out of 10 springs. So about half of the springs it’s cold most of the spring, only to suddenly turn into summer around Memorial Day.

In 3 out of 10 springs, the weather goes back and forth, with times of chilly weather and times of warm. Then there’s the minority, where the warm weather comes early…and stays. This only happens in only 1 or 2 out of 10 springs around here.

This was the case in the spring of 2010, then again in 2012. Last year, snow from our record winter did not finally completely melt until July 15th here in Boston!

How about this spring? Well, we certainly got off to a very warm start for the first half of March. However, things have cooled off since then. We even had close to 4″ of snow last Monday, on the official first day of spring!

Despite the cooler weather, March will still finish above average. In fact, this will be Boston’s 9th straight month of above normal temperatures.

The only exception to this was last October, which featured exactly average temperature departure. It certainly has been a warm stretch of weather around here.

Is the warm streak going to continue into April? Right now, this is very questionable. At some point, we’re going to have a below normal month.

When I study the weather, I love looking at the trends. Weather goes in cycles. Kind of like when we get into a daily routine, and repeat the process everyday.

The weather likes to do the same thing. Last winter, Mother Nature got us into a particularly rough stretch, slamming Boston with 2 consecutive blockbuster snowstorms, and 2 blizzards, within a 5 week period!

However, ever since last July, I say we’ve been on easy street! Looking at some of the long range guidance this morning, April is looking shaky to me. In fact, the first few days of the month is going to feel more like winter than spring around here.

This cold blast won’t have much to do about the cold ocean, but rather more from larger scale teleconnections that will unleash the wintery visit to our region.

So where is this cold blast coming from? First, I can tell you a couple days ago, this was looking a lot worse than what it’s looking now! I’m sure this will have no solace, as you break out the winter coats again, early next week!

A couple days ago, computer models were also showing a late season blizzard to go along with the unseasonable cold. And make no mistake about it, blizzards have occurred during the first 10 days of April in the past around here.

Thankfully, models have backed off this scenerio. In fact, in keeping with the theme of the winter, models have even backed off the severity of the cold expected, alltogether.

With that being said, it’s going to be cold enough to break out the winter gear once again! I would say daytime temperatures in the 30’s, and nightime lows in the teens and twenties for next Monday and Tuesday. Brrrr!

There’s still an outside shot that we’lleven  see some snow at some point next week. After all, Boston does average about 1″ of snow during April.

We normally do not see this 1″ every year. April snows are either big, or nothing. We either get a blizzard or no snow for years at a time. The last big snow in April actually occurred way back in 1997, when the April Fools Blizzard crushed the region with between 2 and 3 feet of snow!

With El Nino quickly collapsing, winter seems to want to get a few good licks in before it retreats north. As a ridge of high pressure builds in western Canada, a cold pool of air bulding up in Canada, is going to dive southeastward next weekend.

In addition, teleconnections in the Pacific Ocean is going to keep impulses of chilly weather diving into New England at least for the first week of April. If these connections were to continue, a cooler than normal April may be the outcome.

Thereafter, after mid month, things may begin to warm up a bit, but no early summer heat is indicated at this point. We shall see if our streak of above normal months continues or not.

Speaking of summer, early indications are pointing towards a hotter summer than the last two around here. This is mainly due to a collapsing El Nino, and the onset of La Nina conditions. A warmer than normal Pacific ocean may try and foul this up. My official summer forecast will be released on Monday, May 23rd.

Now for a segment of weather history. Last week, I mentioned I was going to talk about a severe spring storm. You may of thought I was going to speak of the 1997 April Fools Blizzard. This would of been a good guess, but I’m actually going to talk about another storm.

Back on this date, in 1984, a severe spring storm battered the region.  It was a volatile pattern leading up the the storm. Weather people were on gaurd, as a huge contrast in temperature developed acros the United States.

Blistering hot weather was building in the south, with 90’s to even some 100’s showing up in Texas. Meanwhile, unusually cold weather was building down from Canada into the northern part of the United States.

This contrast in temperature very much included New England. Looking at the weather map, it didn’t take long for a storm to develop. Feeding off the huge contrast in temperature, the storm developed in the middle of the country.

Severe weather outbreaks were common in the south, and blizzard conditions in the north. In typical spring patterns, this storm would of tracked northeast, and end up in central Canada.

This one was different. This storm continued to intensify, as it moved due east, passing south of New England. As it moved to the mid Atlantic coast, the storm further intensified into a class just below hurricane strength!

In addition, with the storm passing to our south, this placed Massachusetts on the cold side of the storm. I will never forget the hurricane force winds produced from this storm.

Icy snow caked on power lines and pine trees, as winds roared from the northeast. In one of the highpoints of my weather memories, me and one of my best friends, watched in awe, as  the storm toppled a 70 foot pine tree right in front of us!

Because so much icy snow was piled on one side, and the wind blowing fiercely in one direction, there was no danger of the tree hitting us. Other trees toppled and snapped, sending hundreds of thousands of people into darkness with no electricity.

The combination of heavy, wet, icy snow along with the hurricane force winds, made this storm one that I will never forget. My good friend still remembers this storm, too!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week a 5 out of 10. Expect damp, and cold weather for the rest of your Monday. Winds will be out of the northeast, and temperatures will only be in the low 40’s.

After some early evening showers, winds will shift into the west, which will help dry out the atmosphere. Temperatures will not turn that cool, with lows mainly in the 30’s and lower 40’s.

Watch for very windy weather Tuesday! As the storm intensifies in the Canadian Maratimes, winds will howl out of the northwest tomorrow, with gusts between 40 and 50 mph! Temperatures should be near 50, but the winds will make it feel much colder than that. Winds will relax tomorrow night, with lows mainly in the 20’s and 30’s, warmest in urban areas.

Wednesday should be the pick of the week, with mostly sunny weather and light winds, with highs near 60.

Thursday and Friday should be even warmer. In fact, if we get some sun, temperatures could make a run at 70! However, there is the threat of some showers from time to time. It won’t be a washout, but there could be some periods of wet weather at times.

Right now, Saturday looks to become breezy and cooler, with highs in the 50’s. Sunday will be a changeable day. A strong cold front will move through New England.

This will be accompanied by rain showers, which may actually turn to snow squalls…even in Boston! Much colder weather will be on tap for next Monday and Tuesday, with highs only in the 30’s!!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review the spring timetable for New England. I delayed this segment this week, becacuse green up has been somewaht delayed due to the cooler weather. I also would like to write a winter review, and give myself a grade on the forecast.

In the meantime, as I like to say in the spring here in New England, two steps forward, one step back! We’ll get there…as long as we keep moving!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Hello, Spring! 3/21/16

Good morning, everyone! Welcome to spring 2016! It’s been anything but spring over the past several days. Saturday was sunny, but on the chilly side, with temperatures only in the lower 40’s. Sunday was even colder, with lots of clouds, but no precipitation.

That changed Sunday night as snow spread into the region as a result of a coastal storm developing to our south. Snow continued overnight, and is currently beginning to dwindle across the area this morning. I will get discuss more about this storm shortly.

I’m also happy to report my computer problem is all fixed! That was painful last week! The computer was trying to download updates and froze. It’s been a couple years, and was due for a tune up.

What else was painful was the forecast for this storm which is currently winding down across the region.

Before I get into the discussion about the storm, I did want to apologize for anyone looking for updates this week through this venue. I did post updates on the storm, but only through Facebook.

Later I was thinking about it, and said to myself, not everyone follows on facebook, and some would not see those updates. In addition, I just don’t have the time like I do on Monday to log into my account and make a formal post.

Facebook is easy, and with limited time,  I can write it on the go, wherever I am. Add to that I had very low confidence in the storm to begin with. There was only a short period of time that I felt a serious storm was actually going to hit.

This was on Thursday. I decided to wait another day, and when Friday came around, the computer models backed off. Had the computer models continued with the original solution, I most definitely would have made a formal post.

Last Thursday I wrote a post about the potential of a storm, but that lots could change. Friday computer models backed off that idea, only to bring them back somewhat on Saturday. In the end, the whole ordeal was one big pain in the neck!

Anyway, if you didn’t get to see the updates, feel free to become friends on Facebook. In the future, I will make a more concious effort to post updates in both venues.

Getting back to this storm. Wow…something just doesn’t seem right. No fault with Mother Nature, she’s going to do exactly what she plans on doing.

I blame us, for all this nonsense. I blame the professional meteorologists, amateur weather folks such as myself, and the media. I’m not one to overhype storms, but I even found myself getting caught up in the model mayhem this past weekend.

Adding the news media to the mix, and this has become a circus of sorts. You would think that we’ve never received snow before. This is New England. It snows here…sometimes a lot!

Back in the day, you had three or four experienced meteorologists. From there you picked one, and became loyal to them. Today, forget about it.

With social media these days, everyone and everybody has an opinion about something. I spoke with a weather buddy of mine this morning, and we both agreed that there are way too many computer models these days. It seems as if everyone’s thinking has become skewed.

Everything seemed so much simpler when I was a kid. You heard meteorologists talk about computer models, but that was the exception rather than the norm. I remember they used magic markers and they drew rain and snow symols on a whiteboard.

They weren’t perfect, but at least they could concentrate on their forecast without so many distractions as today.

Then there was this weekends fiasco. I have never seen guidance change so much from one run to the next. Last Wednesday into Thursday, the European model was forecasting a pretty serious storm to slam eastern New England.

If one run shows it, you say that’s nice, lets see what the next run shows. In most cases, the storm is gone on the following run, or has a completely different solution.

In this case, the model persisted with the storm for 4 or 5 runs in a row. When it shows this, especially within 72 hours of the event, it dramatically increases awareness to meteorologists across the region, that a significant event is likely.

To be fair, the American GFS model never really warmed up to the idea of a major storm. This raised red flags with meteorlogists as well, as the models were not agreeing with each other. To make matters worse, you have about 14 other models and 51 total members that each have their own solutions.

Either there’s too many models, or too many people interpreting the models, and everyone having a different solution. When you add social media into the mix, such as Twitter, you have a recipe for disaster!

I understand that most mean well. But it’s gotten to a point where everyone changes their forecast with every new computer model run. This leads to mass confusion trying to send a clear message out to the general public.

As it turned out, the European model began to diminish the big storm idea on Friday. Other models followed suit, and the whole thing was called off.

On Saturday, models starting trending west again with the storm. At this point, the storm was only a fraction of what it formerly was. Nevertheless, some reliable short range models were hitting the region with a significant snowfall.

While short range models were increasing snow totals, the European and GFS were lowering them. It literally got to the point where nobody really knew what was going to happen.

In the end, it was best to blend the models together and come up with a forecast. Still with that, many overestimated the snowfall, including myself.

In an ironic twist, areas that were not supoosed to receive much snow if any, received the most snow! Other areas, who were bracing for up to 10″ barely received half of that.

Bands predicted by computer models to line up over the Boston area, and down towards the south shore, actually set up some 50 miles to the north and west of the coast.

This is just another example of  how just looking at the computer models verbatim will not get the results you were looking for.

Ok. Now that I got that off my chest, what’s next with this pattern? We’re now in spring now, that means no more snow, right? Well, not necessarily!

Although it will be getting more difficult for it to snow, history does show that we can still get snow, in some cases even big snows, right into the first week of April.

I can recall at least 5 major snow events in my life, which have happened in April!  I do find it ironic that a snowfall occurred on the first day of spring. This may, or may not be an omen for the season, we shall see.

Looking ahead, the rest of March looks to feature dramatic temperature changes, along with more periods of inclement weather. This will be punctuated with times of mild to warm weather, just to let you know it’s spring.

With all that being said, I am a bit concerned with the first 10 days of April. Long range computer models are showing unusually cold air for this time of year persisiting in New England.

If this cold air meets up with some moisture, I can’t rule out another snowfall for some of us. The good news is, once that cold pocket lifts out, spring looks to surge into New England, setting us up for what could be a hotter than normal summer this year!

Now onto your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Well, the “big” storm is over. I’m beginning to see blue skies in the overcast.

You know what that means. At this time of the year, the sun is getting stronger. The snow that fell last night and this morning is going to be zapped by strong solar radiation.

In fact, I believe the only snow that will be left at the end of the day, will be in shady areas, and maybe some piles here and there.

Otherwise, look for increasing sun this afternoon, with temperatures warming up into the lower 40’s. It will be fair and chilly tonight, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s.

Tuesday should feature mainly sunny skies, with highs between 45 and 50. Expect fair weather to continue Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 20’s in rural areas, and 30’s in urban locations.

Wednesday looks to be the pick of the week. Watch for sunny skies, with increasing afternoon clouds. It will be warmer, with highs near 60!

The forecast for Thursday and Friday becomes a bit tricky. A wavy weather front will be in the area. In northern New England, it will turn sharply colder. There may even be some periods of mixed precipitation and snow.

Here in southern New England, it may briefly turn colder here on Thursday with a cold northeast wind. We too, may also see some periods of rain and drizzle.

If the cold air penetrates enough, there may be some sleet and snow mixed in, close to the N.H. & Massachusetts border. Otherwise, just expect cold and damp conditions for both Thursday and most of Friday down here.

As we head into the weekend, expect improving weather. Saturday should feature mostly dry conditions, with temperatures in the 50’s. Easter Sunday should be even warmer, with highs generally in the 60’s with a mixture of sun and clouds.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will talk about our spring timetable and when we should begin to expect green up and vegetation to sprout. I will also talk about a real severe spring storm that hit us back in 1984. Looking back, it’s amazing how we just shrugged off that storm as if it were nothing!

In the meantime, welcome to spring in New England! Where it can be winter when you leave to work in the morning, and play catch with your kids when you get home!

Thanks for reading, and your understanding!

Pete

Back To Reality…3/14/16

Hello, there! Spring, in all its glory, sprung into the region this weekend! Temperatures were between 15 and 20 degrees above average across the region!

With temperatures like this, people flocked outdoors, enjoying walks in the park, doing some early season gardening, or even going to the beach!

This falls  on the heals of a record setting warm day last Wednesday. In fact, the high temperature of 77 degrees in Boston, was the warmest it’s been for so early in the season, in recorded history! Very impressive early season warmth, indeed!

Keeping with the spring theme, we also turned the clocks ahead early Sunday morning. We will now enjoy longer days, with the sun not setting until 6:50 this evening! (more…)

Wednesday: Looking Good!! 3/7/16

Hello! It was a flashback to winter like weather this weekend, with cold temperatures and brisk winds! Both days featured abundant sunshine, but temperatures struggled to reach the lower 30’s during the day, and fell to the teens and twenties at night.

It could of been a lot worse! The light snow which fell on Friday was from the western flank of a massive ocean storm that just barely missed us! Had this storm tracked just 100 miles further west, we certainly would of been hit with near hurricane force wind gusts, and well over a foot of snow!

Such has been the story of winter 2015-16. This winter has been almost the exact opposite of last winter. Last year, Boston was ground zero for winter storms. We all remember what happened, so I’m not going to bring up the horrific events, again.

This winter, storms have mostly avoided our area. Either passing too far south, or tracking too far west. When storms track to the west of Boston, it changes any snow to rain.

This is due to being in the warm sector of the storm. The circulation of the cyclone is counterclockwise. As the storm tracks to our west, winds shift to the south, bringing warmer temperatures into our area.

In some winters, these storms can be very complex. Storms may try to pass to our west, but run into cold air banked up over our region. In cases like this, snow & ice would overspread the region.

If there is strong high pressure to our north, these storms may redevelop south of the region. This would lock the cold air in place, as winds turn more northeasterly, funneling the cold air down the coast.

Snow may mix with sleet and freezing rain, but may turn back to snow as the storm moves south of the region and intensifies.

This was not the case this winter. In fact, not even close. There just wasn’t enough cold air around. When storms approached, cold air evacuated to our northeast. This would flood the region with warm temperatures and rain.

In cases where we had the cold air available, the storm would develop too far to our south, sparing us the brunt of the storm.

The one exception has been down on the Cape. Because the Cape is closer to developing ocean storms, they did get hit quite hard with a couple good storms this winter. It’s not every year you see the Cape receiving more snow than many locations in New Hampshire and Vermont!

Speaking about New Hampshire, and Vermont, it’s been a rough winter for this region. Down here, a rough winter would mean that we got a ton of snow. Up in northern New England, a rough winter does not have the same meaning.

Because this region relies on lots of snow for their economy, a rough winter means that there hasn’t been much snow! In fact, this has been one of the least snowiest winters in years in this region.

If you drew a line from Portsmouth, N.H. down to Worcester, Ma., out to Albany N.Y., then north up into Burlington, Vt., and then much of the rest of northern New England, this region has not received much snow at all this winter. In fact, Albany, N.Y. is having its least snowiest winter on record!

In stark contrast, many locations in the mid-Atlantic region are either at, or above normal for the season. Of course, these numbers are skewed.

It only takes one big storm in this region to reach above normal snowfall for the season. With the great mid-Atlantic Blizzard back in January, this is exactly what happened. Many locations received a season’s worth of snow in just one storm!

These locations average 20 to 30″ of snow annually. Where areas in northern New England average between 100 to 120″ of snow a year. You can double this number in higher elevation and mountainous regions in northern New England.

How about Boston? Boston has a unique climate, which varies greatly from year to year. Last year for example, our climate was similar to Caribou, Maine! This year, it has been more like Richmond, Virginia!

However, because of our latitude, Boston can experience severe winter conditions, with blizzards and bitter cold weather. This was the case last winter.

With Boston’s location right next to the Atlantic Ocean, our weather is modified, and severe conditions typically do not last for extended periods of time.

We truly have four distinct seasons here in the Boston area. Which makes it interesting and challenging!

As mentioned above, it varies greatly from year to year. Some years, winter like weather can persist for up to 6 months. While other years, folks can enjoy summer like weather even longer than that!

What about snow? Boston’s Logan Airport averages approximately 44″ of snow annually. Surrounding areas away from the ocean receive more.

This year, Boston has received 26″ of snow. With this being the second warmest winter on record, I believe the snow season has actually overachieved to some degree around here.

Winters which feature such warm temperatures typically have annual snowfalls of less than 15″ for the season.

Like the Cape, Boston has been close enough to some ocean storms to receive a couple significant snowfalls this winter. Still, it’s running below average around here. Not as bad as northern New England, but below average nonetheless.

This is not surprising to me. After a historic, record winter last year, Mother Nature normally pulls back the following winter, giving everyone a needed break!

As I mentioned last week, it’s still too early to say winter is completely over. We have had many late season snowstorms in the past, even into May!

Come next year, it may be all together different. Computer models are predicting a transition from strong El Nino conditions, to perhaps a strong La Nina. This could mean a very different winter for us, especially folks in northern New England.

La Nina’s are variable. Some years bringing significant snows to New England, while other years, not so much. Typical La Nina patterns are the opposite of El Nino, delivering much colder and stormier weather to Alaska and the Pacific northwest.

Meanwhile, warmer and drier weather dominates the southern tier and southeastern part of the United States. New England is usually cought between the two, oscillating between warm and cold.

A lot has to do with ocean temperatures, solar radiation, and prevailing jet stream winds. I will be monitoring the changes in the months ahead.

What about in the short term? How’s our spring looking this year? Well, if you were to go by trends, you would forecast a warmer and drier spring on the way this year. I believe it’s not as cut and dry as that. With El Nino weakening over the course of the spring,

I’m concerned that this is going to result in a highly variable pattern heading forward. This means this spring may feature a little bit of everything! Many folks would like to know if we are completely done with the snow. At this time of the year, you do never know. It could abruptly end.

Boston averages about 8″ of snow in March. Boston normally sees one more decent snowstorm in March, before spring settles in. Looking back in history, you really can’t take snow out of the forecast until at least mid April! There have been numerous snowfalls, even straight out blizzards right into April, so it’s not quite over just yet.

With that being said, I am expecting a wetter spring this year than in years past. I am also expecting warmer than average temperatures on average, and forecast spring to feature a bit warmer than normal.

With that being said, I do still believe we run the risk of late season intrusions of chilly weather, bringing frosts and possibly even a late snowfall later in March or into early April.

This typically happens when we have a weakening El Nino. Areas that have not received much snow this winter, run the greatest risk at a late season snowstorm.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. Not so wintery this week, I will rate it a 7 out of 10. Expect some clouds, along with breaks of sunshine for the rest of this afternoon. It will be milder, with highs between 45 and 50 degrees.

Tonight should feature some clouds, and not as cold as recent nights. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40’s.

Expect more clouds than sun again for Tuesday. A warm front will be approaching the area, and may result in a scattered shower. No heavy rain is anticipated. Temperatures will be similar as today, with highs near 50.

Tuesday night should continue the dry weather theme, with temperatures falling into the 30’s and lower 40’s.

Watch for warmer weather, on Wednesday! With increasing sunshine, look for temeratures to soar to near 70 degrees! The warm temperatures will send the region into full spring fever mode!

These warm temperatures may continue well into Thursday, with another day of near 70 degree weather!

A back door cold front may spoil the party Friday, with colder easterly winds, and mainly cloudy skies. Temperatures may not get out of the 40’s. There is also the chance of some showers along the thermal boundary.

Right now, the weekend may turn unsettled. This is a low confidence forecast, so please check in with local media outlets for new updates.

Saturday may be on the dry side. It will be on the mild side with highs in the 50’s. Sunday may turn wet and cooler, with highs falling back into the 40’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking a bit more about our weather coming up this spring. I may also take a look into what we might expect for our upcoming summer!

In the meantime, Get ready for springtime weather for this week! But, don’t pack away the winter weather gear just yet, you never know what’s coming after!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Record Warmth! Snow? 2/29/16

Hello! Happy Leap Day, to everyone! It was a tale of two seasons this past weekend. Saturday was chilly, with highs mainly in the 30’s. As has been the case this whole winter, the cold weather did not last.

Sunday was a fantastic day! Temperatures surged to 58 degrees in Boston! After Saturday’s chill, it felt more like 68 degrees!

I was at my nieces birthday party yesterday, where many family members were asking me about this unusual weather. One of my bright niece’s asked me if this was because El Nino?

I told her that it most definitely has something to do with El Nino. I also told her that it also has a lot to do with Mother Nature just giving us a break from last years epic winter. She seemed satisfied with the answer!

These unusually warm temperatures sent folks outdoors to enjoy the early spring weather. Whether you took a walk along the beach, hiking in the woods, or even started spring clean up, it was great to get out and enjoy the unseasonably warm weather!

Speaking of warm weather, temperatures this winter have gotten out of hand! I suspected a warm winter was on the way, but this has been off the charts! With meteorological winter ending today, Boston is going to finish with the 2nd warmest winter on record!

Which was the warmest winter? Back in 2001-2002, Boston finished with an average temperature of 37.9 degrees. I remember this being a very warm winter across New England. I would of thought 2011-12 was the warmest winter, but that winter averaged 37.1 degrees.

This year, we are firmly in the number two slot. With the warm weather today, this gaurantees us with an average of no less than 37.2 degrees.

These may not seem like very warm numbers, but when you average it over the course of the three winter months, it’s quite toasty!

In fact, Boston smashed another warm record this winter, with an astounding 35 days of temperatures of 50 degrees or greater! Yet, despite the outrageously warm temperatures, there has been some noteworthy events this winter.

In winters that feature such warm temperatures, Boston usually does not get any more than 15″ of snow for the entire season. And in some cases, such as the 2011-12 winter, only 9.3″ of snow fell. This was just thee tenths of an inch more than the lowest snow season ever on record, set back in 1936-37 winter, when only 9″ of snow fell.

Although not even remotely close to last years biblical snowfall, we have managed to muster 26″ of snow so far. In fact, many cities in the mid-Atlantic region actually have above normal snowfall this winter, thanks to the big blizzard that sruck them back in January.

Most of that storm slid out to sea to our south, but once again, Boston was on the northern edge, and managed to receive a quick 6″ snowfall.

Boston also received a heavy wet snowfall at the beginning of February, when close to 8″ of heavy wet snow stuck to everything, resulting in a barrage of spectacular winter photographs on social media outlets.

Areas south of Boston, especially on Cape Cod, actually got hit with two blizzards this winter! One in January, and another in early Febrauary!

In addition to the snow, a shot of record cold came blasting through much of the region over Valentine’s Day weekend. Boston dropped to 9 degrees below zero, making this the coldest temperature in the city since 1957!

Does this mean my winter forecast verified? Hardly! temperatures have averaged way warmer than I was expecting. I was fully expecting a warm first half of winter. We certainly got this. Remember walking around in t-shirts on Christmas Day?

Although temperatures have cooled off in January and February, it still was no where near enough to wipe out the abnormal warmth from November and December. In addition, repetitive spikes of very warm weather have continued for the better part of the winter, aiding in the record warm winter.

As for snowfall, I count everything, from first flake to last. According to records here in Boston, that means our snow season does not officially end until May 10th!

Looking back in history, there have been many spring snowstorms, even a few blizzards, as late as April! In fact, one of Boston’s largest snowstorms hit on April 1st, back in 1997, when 25.3″ of snow fell!

I forecasted between 45 and 65″ of snow for Boston this season. It seems unlikely we’ll hit this number this year, but it would only take one more good storm to bring it close!

All in all, Febrauary actually ended up with above average snow. Boston typically averages around 12″ of snow in February, this year we had 15.”

This was no where near the nearly 65″ of snow that fell in the city last February! It was also a warm month. Despite the record cold around Valentine’s Day, we are running nearly 3 degrees above average for the month.

Just because meteorological winter ends today, does not mean winter is over! This is just formality for the National Weather Service to keep records neat and tidy, dividing the 4 seasons into
3 month increments.

Despite what the weather feels like today, March is going to live up to its reputation this year, with episodes of wild weather from coast to coast!

For folks in California…get ready! The El Nino is not done with you! In fact, looking at latest computer models, a very stormy March is coming!

This means flooding rains for lower elevations, and very heavy snowfall measured in feet for the Sierra mountain range! This active jet stream is going to send storms across the southern tier of the country, eventually crashing into New England.

If this moisture is met with cold enough air, another snowstorm or two is not out of the question! Overall, I am expecting a warm and wet March.

Again, some of this will fall as frozen precipitaion. Boston averages about 8″ of snow in March. I believe we will receive more than this average if my forecast is correct.

I am expecting extreme swings in temperatures this month! Watch for times of springlike warmth, only to be puctuated by shots of chilly weather! Just when you think winter is over, back will come the cold and even snow!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I am rating this week a 6 out of 10, rated heavily with the early week warmth. Watch for a changeable afternoon, with a record tying warm temperature of 64 degrees! It will be breezy, with a slight chance of some sprinkles or light showers moving through.

Tonight will be cooler, with clearing skies, and temperatures dropping into the 20’s and 30’s region wide.

Tuesday will be a pleasant day, with sunshine fading behind some afternoon clouds. It will be cooler than today, with highs mainly in the 40’s.

Watch for clouds to thicken Tuesday night, with lows in the 30’s. As a storm moves to our west on Wednesday, it will turn windy and warmer! Look for temperatures to spike back up close to 60 degrees!

Expect heavy downpours to also cross the region anytime during the day. There may even be another thunderstorm, but I am not expecting the severe weather we witnessed last Wednesday night!

Thursday will turn windy and colder, with highs only in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. Thursday night will feature increasing clouds and cold temperatures, with lows mainly in the 20’s.

Friday will turn even colder, with high temperatures likely not even reaching 32 degrees! At the same time, a storm will be developing off the mid-Atlantic coast.

This is where the forecast becomes extremely tricky. If this storm were to head up the coast, a crippling blizzard would hit eastern Massachusetts, including Boston. This is not my forecast at this point.

Computer models are not in agreement as of this forecast. Out of the 5 big models I look at, 3 have been trending north and hitting us with a significant winter storm on Friday into Saturday. One of these models is the Canadian model.

However, two of the more reliable models I rely on, the European and the American based GFS, do not show this scenerio panning out. To make matters more complicated, the Canadian model, not thought of a reliable model in the past, has improved quite a bit, and has done quite well this winter. For this reason, I can not completely rule out this solution.

Right now, I will go the conservative route. Although I did forecast a blizzard to hit the region in early March, it looks like the brunt of this storm will end up just missing out to sea!! A word of caution, it would only take a slight bend in the steering currents to change everything!

Right now, I will go for light snow spreading across the region from southwest to northeast. This snow may continue into Saturday morning with light accumulations across the area.

If a significant storm appears more likely, I will update this blog, as soon as I have more confidence is the event. Sunday will feaure clearing skies and chilly temperatures.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be following closely the roller coaster temperature ride we are going to experience this month! I will also have my full spring outlook for the New England region.

In the meantime, get ready for everything but the kitchen sink this March! In other words, typical New england weather!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Spring: Knocking On The Door! 2/22/16

Hello! As the title says, spring has been knocking on the door as of late! Temperatures soared at least 10 degrees higher than expected on Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and highs making it into the 60’s! Sunday turned a little cooler, but I’m sure many won’t complain with temperatures in the mid 50’s here in late February!

It’s been a strange winter, to say the least. I was chatting with a weather friend of mine, and we were lamenting at just how confused the atmosphere seems to be this winter.

It seems that it just can’t make up its mind for anything. Regions that were forecasted to receive the least amount of precipitation, are getting the most. Areas that were supposed to be the coldest, are still averaging above normal!

Here in New England, Cape Cod was forecasted to receive the least amount of snow this winter, when they have gotten the most! Up in northern New England, the story is also the complete opposite, with very little snow to speak of.

Storms have either passed too far to the southeast, or, they pass too far to the west, placing many areas in the warm sector of the storm. When storms take this track, most of New England receives heavy rainfall and warm temperatures.

Some years, cold air is more dense, and is difficult to dislodge up in northern New England. This sometimes can result in heavy snowfalls, even with a storm track to our west.

This year, the cold air is retreating when a storm arrives, changing any snow quickly over to rain. Here in coastal New England, the cold air erodes very quickly in patterns like this, resulting in primarily rainstorms.

This has been a terrible year so far for New England ski resorts. Just when they seem to be getting on track with good snow making and colder temperatures, a warm rainstorm arrives and wipes it all away.

This winter, in particular, has been very frustrating. As I mentioned above, many years, ski resorts end up with a surpluss of snow from patterns like this.

Storms would arrive with a front end thump of snow, briefly go over to mixed precipitation or rain for a time, only to turn back to snow on the backside of the storm, resulting in significant accumulations.

This year, storms have been arriving with unusually warm temperatures and high dewpoints. This not only changes the snow rapidly to rain, but melts it incredibly fast, too.

To make matters worse, a stormy and colder February for much of the northeast has not materialized. Yes, we had the freak cold snap around Valentine’s Day.

But, as I like to say, it was an island of cold in a sea of warmth. As quickly as the cold came in, it lifted out. Just 2 days later, much of our region was pushing 60 degrees!

So, what gives, and where do we go from here? First, I would like to say that I’m not completely surprised with the results of this winter so far. It was never forecasted to be a blockbuster winter to begin with.

Despite the ridiculously warm temperatures, Boston is actually running close to average for snowfall for this time of the year. As mentioned above, areas south of Boston, towards the Cape, is actually running a bit above the average.

The forecast for the entire winter was for near average to possibly a bit above average snowfall. This winter was never forecasted to be anything close to last year. With that being said, I am a bit surprised we have not had more wintery events.

All things considered equal, I believe this is Mother Nature’s way of giving the Boston area a break from the winter beatdown we received last winter!

Still, the winter was full of potential. It was well known in the meteorologic community that the winter was going to get off to a warm start.

And boy did it ever! Remember, November and December were two of the warmest winter months ever recorded here in New England! What was less understood, was the back half of winter.

January was meant to be a transition month, with February and March delivering the brunt of winter weather to our region. Despite above average snow in February here in Boston, temperatures have been so warm, it never really stuck around for too long.

What has been equally frustrating, is watching all of these storms develop on the computer models in the extended period. At first glance, these storms look perfect, bringing heavy snow to much of New England. As the date comes closer, these storms are turning into warm rainstorms.

This week will be no exception to this pattern. Last week at this time, I was eyeing this weeks storm very carefully. At one point, it had the storm just off our coast, delivering heavy amounts of snow to much of New England.

As time went on, computer models have been shifting the track of this storm further and further to our west. When this happens, it pulls the warm sector of the storm, with southerly winds, into much of New England.

After a brief period of light snow and sleet, this too will turn into a warm, snow eating tropical rainstorm for much of New England. I will go into detail about this storm shortly in my forecast.

In a week from today, we will already be at the end of meteorological winter. So far, it can be classified as a warm, wet winter here in New England.

Does this mean winter is officially over? Once again, according to long range computer guidance, the answer is no! But how much faith can we put into these projections, with their recent track record?

This is a very tricky forecast coming up for March. Honestly, I could see it going either way. On one hand, I could see winter lifting out fairly quickly, and spring moving in early.

However, the overall look to the pattern, still has me concerned about a significant period of winter weather that we will need to still go through.

In my winter forecast, I believed the first half of March would bring the worst of this years winter to New England. I still believe there is the potential for a major storm, if not a blizzard to strike the region in early March.

The reasons I believe we have more winter ahead are as follows: El Nino continues to weaken. The warm pool in the Pacific ocean continue to resmeble last years Modoki El Nino more and more.

Modoki is a term which means the El Nino is centered more in the middle of the Pacific ocean, rather than right against the South American coast.

This position makes a huge difference on our weather here in New England. This position promotes a deep trough of low pressure in the north Pacific Ocean.

Conversely, warm ocean temperatures off the British Columbia coast will continue to promote a blocking ridge of high pressure in western Canada.

In addition, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event may send pieces of the Polar Vortex down into the eastern United States early in March.

It’s getting late, but seasonal shifts are continuing to be delayed by a month or so. In other words, we never really established a consistant winter pattern this year.

If a deep trough of low pressure (cold & stormy) can establish itself in the beginning of March across the eastern United States, a period of severe winter weather is still on the table for us, in my opinion.

Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see how this all plays out. We will be fighting an increasingly higher sun angle, and increased solar radiation. We can’t stop the seasons from changing. So we shall see if my ideas hold merit!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect it to be a bit cooler for the rest of your Monday afternoon. Watch for a mixture of sun and some fair weather cumulus clouds to dot the sky. Temperatures will still be a bit above average, with highs in the mid 40’s.

Look for fair and a bit colder weather tonight, with lows mainly in the teens and 20’s. Also, be on the lookout for the full “Snow Moon” tonight!

Tuesday will feature some early sun, but a watch for increasing clouds during the afternoon. It will be decidedly colder, with highs only in the mid 30’s. A raw wind off the ocean will make it feel even colder, so make sure to bundle up!

A small storm developing to our south may bring us a bout of wintery precipitation tomorrow night. Watch for light snow to overspread the region from south to north. As was the case last week, the snow may accumulate between 1 and 2″ before it mixes with and changes to sleet and freezing rain.

Along the coast, freezing rain will quickly change to rain by Wednseday morning. Across the interior, say north and west of Rt 128, the icy conditions may persist into Wednesday morning, so please use caution!

Warmer air advecting from the south will warm coastal areas into the mid to upper 40’s during the day. Across the interior, the warm up may be slower, with highs of near 40 not reached until late in the day. Wednesday does not look to be too rainy, just a cloudy, gloomy type of a day.

A strong storm system developing near the Gulf of Mexico will head north into New York state Wednseday night and Thursday. This will bring strong winds, and heavy rain to mmuch of New England into Thursday morning.

As a srong cold front pushes into the region, we may experience tropical downpours, gusty winds, and possibly even a thunderstorm early Thursday.

As the cold front pushes offshore, drier, colder weather will sweep back into the region. Other than a few now showers, Friday looks to be a mainly dry day, with a brisk wind.

Right now, the weekend looks ok to me. Saturday will feature a brief warm up, with highs back up into the lower 40’s. A strong cold front may be approaching New England during Saturday night and Sunday.

This may bring some strong snow squalls or areas of light snow, but as of this point, a significant storm is not expected. It will be colder on Sunday, with highs only near freezing.

Another storm may be approaching early next week, if this storm passes north of us, we could warm up again. However, if it were to dig a little more and pass south of us, a much more wintery scenerio would be the outcome. Stay tuned!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the month of February, and have a preview for the month of March! Where is the time going?

I will also have a brief outlook on what I think our spring may bring us. In the meantime, spring may be knocking on the door, but will Old Man winter let her in? We shall see!

Thanks for reading, everyone!

**Happy Birthday to my niece, Nicole!**

Pete

RAPID CHANGES! SNOW…THEN WARM! 2/15/16

Good afternoon, everyone! I have a lot to talk about today, in a short amount of time! I hope everyone had a nice Valentine’s Day!It was certainly a Valentine’s Day for the record books for Boston this year.

In fact, it was historical! Saturday featured mainly dry weather, with plummeting temperatures. Daytime highs in the lower 20’s quickly fell below zero at night.

Not only was yesterday’s high temperature of only 12 degrees the coldest in recorded history on Valentine’s Day, but the 9 below low temperature, was the coldest temperature in Boston since 1957!

This was also the first record cold temperature during the month of February in nearly 50 years! Talking about doing it in grand style!

All of this occurring during what many are calling the warmest winter on record for us in the northeast! There’s no denying it. November and December were some of the warmest months ever recorded here in the northeast.

Even January ended up being warmer than normal. But because it had been so warm, it actually felt colder than what it averaged out to be.

Don’t get me wrong. It has certainly turned more wintery since the new year. We have even received our fair share of snow here in Boston. With 24″ so far, this is right on track for receiving average snow for the season.

My goodness, the weather for the past several years around Valentine’s Day has featured some of winters worst weather! If you recall last year, a blizzard struck the region, with 16″ of snow, bitter cold temperatures, and gale force winds. The year before that, another big snowstorm hit, with heavy snow, rain, and ice!

So what does a weatherman do when the coldest air of the season descends down into Boston? He heads further north, of course! I spent a wonderful weekend with friends and family up in the majestic city of Montreal, Quebec!

Though my nephew’s hockey team lost all the games played in the tournament, it was still tons of fun spending time with friends and family, in this Canadian city.

Remember what I mentioned last week about the Montreal Express? Well, we certainly experienced it first hand this weekend. As impressive as the cold was here in Boston, the cold up in Montreal has even more of a bite to it.

As it should, the city is in Canada, and is far removed from any ocean influence to moderate the temperatures.

Once temperatures went below zero Friday night, it never came remotely close to going above that for the rest of the weekend. In fact, most of the weekend high temperatures was spent between 10 and 15 degrees below zero, with nightime lows hovering near 20 below!

Windchills made these temperatures feel like 50 below zero at times! Despite the cold, we all bundled up like eskimos, and went out into the elements, like the hearty New Englanders we are!

The phrase Montreal Express derives from cold snaps just like this one. When bitter cold winds blow directly from the northwest, transporting bitter cold temperatures from Montreal straight into Boston!

If you ever would like to visit a foreign city, but don’t want to go to Europe, Montreal is a great alternative! The drive from Boston is easy, taking less than 6 hours.

The best part about it, is that 90% of the trip is traveling through very scenic landscape of New Hampshire and especially the Green Mountains of Vermont. When you reach the U.S./Canadian border, it’s only another hour to Montreal!

Blizzards, record low temperatures, record snowfalls, some friends and family have been asking me just what the heck is going on here. They thought the climate was supposed to be warming?

For those who thought they can give their winter clothing away to some family in Siberia, things are getting real now. If anything, the past few years should be telling us something. After years of global temperatures warming, we are reaching a tipping point. Even with this years record warm El Nino, winter has still managed a way to make an impact this year.

In years past, record warm November and December’s would nearly automatically mean a mild winter on the way, with very little snow to speak of. The turnaraound this winter has been impressive. The fact that we have now had a couple significant winter storms, several smaller ones, and a historic bitter cold blast this winter has been been noted in the science community.

This is why I said in my winter forecast, this winter is not your typical warm, no winter is coming this year, winter. I saw ocean temperatures that had never been seen before with a strong El Nino.

In the end, winter is going to according to plan. It was forecasted to be a back ended winter, with more snow and cold during Febraury and March, than earlier in the season. One or two more good storms will bring Boston close to an average snow season.

Looking at some long range guidance, this has a better than average chance to happen. The western ridge is expected to rebuild after this week, sending more cold and potential east coast storms the last week of February, and the beginning of March.

No, we will not receive as much snow as last year. However, in years past, after such a harsh winter, you would be lucky to see anything significant for a year or two after. To me, this all means that Mother Nature is beginning to balance the scale.

I believe that the oceans and the sun play a more significant role in our climate than high levels of Carbon Dioxide. After this El Nino fades this summer, computer models are forecasting a strong La Nina to develop in the Pacific Ocean.

La Nina is the opposite of El Nino, and means cold water instead of warm pools in the Pacific Ocean. This, along with a declining solar cycle, will mean global temperatures will most likely begin to decline on average over the next several decades.

Could winters actually get worse over time? I believe they can, and will. Already, the winters seem to be becoming more harsh over the past several years. Does this mean we will no longer have summers?

Well…no. As long as the earth remains tilted on its axis, and orbits around the sun, seasons will always change, summer and winter will always occur. In fact, long range computer models are already hinting of a much hotter summer for much of the U.S. coming up this year.

The trick is trying to forecast just how severe or not each season will be. This is why we look to the ocean temperatures, sun radiation, and natural signs, to see just what state they are in. As this can greatly affect seasonal variation.

If and when the Atlantic cools into its negative state, called the negative AMO, or negative Atlantic Mecadecadel Oscillation, talk of ice age will be renewed amongst scientists.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Watch for thickening clouds this afternoon. It wil be warmer than recent days, but highs will still only make it up into the 20’s.

Later this afternoon, around dark, light snow will begin to spread across the region. Watch for snow to accumulate between 1 and 3″ this evening, with slippery travel likely for a time.

As we head close to midnight, winds will freshen out of the southeast, and begin to change the snow to rain from southeast to northwest. Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 30’s overnight.

If you live north and west of I495, between 2 and 4″ of snow may accumulate before it mixes with sleet and freezing rain. Deeper into the interior of New Hampshire and Vermont, I am expecting between 3 and 6″ of snow. Even up in the mountains of New England, snow will be turning to sleet and then all rain during Tuesday.

Tuesday will be an interesting day. As the storm passes west of Boston, a strong southerly wind will transport unseasonably warm weather into the region. Look for temperatures to soar into the 50’s, with strong southerly winds of between 30 and 50 mph! Winds down on the Cape may gust to between 40 and 60 mph!

Expect periodic rain showers during the day, but an all day washout is not anticipated. However, as we head towards the evening hours, a strong squall line will be approaching from the west.

This line, will have a band of torrential downpours, gusty winds, and maybe even some embedded stron thunderstorms associated with it. Be prepared if you are going to be out and about between 6 and 9 PM!

After the storm moves by, skies should begin to clear from west to east overnight. Wednesday will be a blustery day, with some sun, and considerable clouds. It will be cooler, with highs falling back into the 40’s.

A small disturbance could bring some snow flurries or snow showers on Thursday, but nothing significant is anticipated. Friday should feature sunshine, followed by some increasing clouds during the afternoon, with highs mainly in the 30’s.

Right now, another system appears to be heading towards New England this weekend. The pattern will be changing during this time frame, so confidence is not great.

I don’t see a major storm, but a thermal gradient will be developing across our area. Depending on which side you are on, you could see periods of light snow (mainly north of Massachusetts), or periods of rain showers, here in southern New England.

Temperatures may be in the 30’s and lower 40’s on Saturday, but may punch up to 50 briefly on Sunday. Next week looks to turn colder, with chances of a winter storm increasing.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a look at what the rest of the winter may have in store for us. I will also be on the lookout to see if the ski resorts have any significant snow in their future.

In the meantime, enjoy the change to warm temperatures tomorrow! More changes just around the corner, will remind us that winter is not ready to give up just yet!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Mother Nature…Is Awesome! 2/8/16

Hello, again! We are in the midst of our second significant storm in as many days! After a tranquil weekend, snow moved into Boston early this morning, and is now beginning to rapidly accumulate.

It was warm earlier, but temperatures have since plummetted into the teens. With a strong north wind, wind chills have fallen below zero. Certainly not a day to be out there, unless you really have to!

This snowfall will be different from Friday. The storm on Friday delivered a spectacle that only Mother Nature can accomplish. Wet snow, clung to every branch and shrub, creating a Winter Wonderland not seen around here in years. I hope you got the opportunity to take some pictures! I know I certainly did!

Today’s snow is much like last year. With temperatures in the teens, the snow is much fluffier, with little water content. The bad news is, it’s not going to stick to the trees like the last storm. The good news, it won’t be nearly as difficult to shovel when it finishes some time tonight.

As mentioned above, we are underway with today’s storm. There are many warnings and advisories up in our region. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts like myself were very concerned about this storm. And for good reason. This storm has intensified into a winter hurricane! Just look at that satellite picture!!

As it is, because they are closer proximity to the storm, Cape Cod and Boston’s south shore is currently being lashed with fierce blizzard conditions!

Heavy snow has also spread across much of the Greater Boston metropolitan area, where winter storm warnings are up for the remainder of the day.

To make matters worse, a coastal flood warning is also in effect for much of the south shore. Even as we speak, ocean water is rushing into vulnerable areas, including Morrisey Blvd in Dorchester, Hull, Scituate, and Marshfield. I hope we pass high tide without too much damage in these areas.

Expect the storm to continue well into the afternoon, and even into the evening hours. Bands of heavy snow and strong winds will continue well into the afternoon.

As mentioned earlier, the worst will be on the south shore and the Cape, where blizzard conditions will persist. Snow accumulations will vary greatly, due to banding structure of the snow. I will go over accumulations in my forecast shortly.

So what’s happening here? Is this beginning to remind you a little bit of last year? As stated in my winter forecast, I believed that this year would have some similarities.

After a very warm & snowless beginning to winter, things are changing quickly! El Nino is beginning to rapidly weaken, and the north Pacific still has pockets of very warm water showing up (positive PDO).

In addition, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event is breaking down the historic strong Polar Vortex! Add all this up, and we could be looking at another late winter historic run here in Boston!

Long range guidance is now pointing towards a very stormy and cold period of weather coming up here in the northeast, for the next 4 to 6 weeks. Warm waters in the north Pacific will continue to promote a blocking ridge of high pressure in western Canada.

The Sudden Stratospheric Warning Event is beginning to disrupt the Polar Vortex. This will send lobes of bitterly cold air at times diving into the eastern part of the U.S. This is going to energize the northern polar jet stream (cold + energy).

What’s different this year from last, is that this year, we have a very active sub tropical jet stream (warm + moisture). In addition, warm ocean temperatures off the east coast, will add fuel to developing nor’easters.

Today’s storm is a perfect example of this. Just look at that satellite picture. Had this storm been 150 miles close to the coast, a catastrophic storm would of been the outcome.

Now, am I predicting another 110.8″ of snow to fall in Boston? The short answer to this question is no! Who really knows what’s going to happen the rest of the winter?

I can say, however, the potential is there for several more snowstorms, one of which still has the potential to be a major blizzard for many here in the northeast.

As El Nino weakens, I also see northern New England start to get into heavier snowfalls as we move deeper into the month, and especially heading into March.

How much more snow can we expect? Well, after today, Boston may be close to their seasonal average to date, which is around 25.”

Logan Airport typically receives 44″ on average. My winter forecast called for between 45 and 65″ for Boston. I like this range, and I’m going to stick with it until the end.

While I see a very active period of weather ahead, I don’t see quite the same parameters that brought the historic snow blitz to Boston as last year. However, Mother Nature is going to do her best to try and duplicate it!

Although it will turn bitterly cold at times, I don’t necessarily see the bitter cold air of last year, meeting up with moisture, to produce the prolific, powdery snowfalls of last year. Storms may have more mixing issues, and wetter snows than last year, keeping accumulations down a bit.

With that being said, precipitation amounts may actually be more than last year! It’s definitely something we have to monitor very carefully! Should the cold air mix with this deep moisture I’m expecting, excessive snowfalls could still happen!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Very wintery! Expect snow, heavy at times in Boston for the rest of today. A winter storm warning will continue. I am expecting between 7 and 10″ of snow to fall in the city by late tonight.

South of Boston, along the south shore and down on the Cape, a blizzard warning is in effect. You can expect blinding snow, with low visibilities.

In addition, temperatures are becoming extremely cold, which will make it dangerous to be outdoors. Fortunately, tides are now on their way out, but residual ocean water will make it hazardous to get around. Snow will continue in this region deep into the night. If you live in these locations, you can expect between 10 and 18″ of snow.

Very late at night, the big storm will begin to pull away. Just as we say by to one, we have to be on gaurd for yet another tomorrow. This is a clipper type of storm diving in from the midwest towards the east coast.

Most of this moisture should bypass us But again, areas south of Boston down towards the Cape, may pick up another 1 to 3″ of light fluffy snow. Light snow showers can not be ruled out for the rest of the region.

Yet another disturbance may swing through the region, bringing another chance of light snow showers on Wednesday. This does not look significant at this point. Just some nuiscance snow. The weather may break on Thursday, allowing for some drier, sunnier weather to the region.

This will be short lived. Another quick hitting nor’easter may ride up the coast later Friday into Saturday, delivering another bout of accumulating snow. This doesn’t look major at this point, but certainly something to keep an eye on.

After that storm pulls through, the Montreal Express will unleashed! This is ironic, as I will be up in Montreal this weekend!

Northwest winds will drive bitterly cold air directly into Boston from Montreal this weekend. You can expect high temperatures to only be in the lower teens, with lows below zero in most locations!

It should remain dry this weekend, but another more significant storm may threaten the region sometime early next week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing the pending winter pattern in more detail! I will aslo have a new ski forecast for our local resorts. They could use a good storm! In the meantime, plan on some extra cuddling this Valentine’s Day! Baby, it’s going to be COLD outside!

Thanks for reading!

Be safe!

Pete

Nor’easter…Blizzard!! 2/7/16

Happy Super Bowl Sunday! I swear I was posting about a storm last year about this time? Wait, I was! It was on Super Bowl Sunday last year, that I was posting about an impending snowstorm! Last year, it was on February 1st. Deja Vu all over again!

Today is the calm before the storm. If you need to get something done, I would suggest you go out and do it now! A storm is developing off the Carolinas even as I speak, and will turn into a fierce nor’easter as it passes southeast of New England tomorrow.

To add to the misery, more weaker storms will pass south of New England on Tuesday, continuing the chance of light snow.

Even as I speak, winter storm warnings and blizzard warnings have just been posted for much of eastern Massachusetts by the National Weather Service.

Here are the details. A very intense storm is now developing off the Carolina coast. This storm is, and is going to intensify further as it slowly heads northeast, passing about 150 southeast of the benchmark.

The benchmark is an area of 40 degrees latitude 70 degrees longitude where meterologists and weather enthusiasts like myself look for prime location where nor’easters pass over to produce big snows for our area.

One would think because this storm is passing so far southeast of the mark, why are we still calling for a major storm? This is because the circulation of the storm is going to be so large, and the dynamics so strong, it is likely to envelop eastern Massachusetts in its heavy snow and wind field.

One important aspect of this storm is going to be the huge fetch of winds coming in from the east northeast across the Gulf of Maine into eastern Massachusetts, and especially southeastern Massachusetts.

This fetch, is going to enhance snowfall amounts, especially on Boston’s south shore, as the cold, moist winds, blow over the relatively warm ocean temperatures.

This is why southeastern Massachusetts stands to see the heaviest accumulations from this storm. As soon as this storm begins to pull away from the region tomorrow night, more weaker storms will pass south of New England.

This may continue the light onshore flow off the ocean, and continue periods of light accumulating snowfall straight through Tuesday, perhaps into early Wednesday!

Now for your important forecast. As mentioned above, today is the calm before the storm. Expect sunny, mild weather this afternoon, with highs mainly in the lower 40’s. High clouds will increase later today, and you will notice them as the sun sets this evening.

Overnight, expect clouds to thicken, and winds to begin to freshen out of the northeast. Very late tonight, well after midnight, light snow will begin to spread across the region from southeast to northwest.

Expect a very stormy day on Monday! The Boston metropolitan area is under a winter storm warning all day tomorrow. Most schools will be closed, especially inside of Rt 128.

If you live south of Boston, especially if you live near the coast, such as Scituate, Norwell, Plymouth, then down throughout Cape Cod, you are under a blizzard warning for tomorrow!

What’s the difference? The difference is in a blizzard warning, you will experience visibilty of 1/4 mile or less, and sustained winds of 35 mph or greater for 3 consecutive hours tomorrow.

In addition, although not a requirement, you will be seeing the heaviest of the accumulations across the state. Expect snow, heavy at times in the Boston area tomorrow, along with gusty northeast winds, and cold temperatures.

When the storm tapers down tomorrow evening, Boston residents can expect between 8 and 12″ of snow. Periods of snow may continue right into Tuesday with additional light accumulations possible.

These same accumulations hold true if you live to the west of Boston, out to Worcester, and to the southwest of Boston in the Walpole, and Franklin areas, extending south into northern Rhode Island and the city of Providence.

If you live due south of Boston in the Easton, Brockton areas, you can expect to be closer to the 12″ mark, rather than the 8.

This storm is going to hit hardest in eastern Massachusetts, including the north shore, and especially the south shore and the Cape.

If you live in southern New Hampshire,including the seacoast, you can expect to receive less snow and wind. In the order of 3 to 6.” However, if the storm moves closer than expected, heavier snowfall may occur.

In the Blizzard warning, you can expect heavy snowfall falling much of the day, along with reduced visibilities and stron winds. Here, you can expect between 12 and 18″ of snow to fall tomorrow, with some isolated areas with 20″ of snow.

On the Cape, a fierce storm is expected, with heavy, blinding wet snow at first, transitioning to a powdery snow during the afternoon. Due to the wet snow at the onset, accumulations may be kept down a bit, but still 10 to 15″ is a good bet, if not more.

Because of the high winds and wet snow, trees down and power outages is a distinct possibility. In addition, strong winds coming in off of the ocean will result in minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide.

Please check with local officials for any evacuations that may occur. More periods of snow will continue to hinder clean up process through Tuesday, with a few more additional inches of accumulations likely.

Watch for everything to begin to pull away during Wednesday, although a few snow showers still can not be ruled out, especially in the morning. There may be some minor delays, but I believe flights will be able to take off without much of a problem.

Some more flurries are possible on Friday and into the weekend, but nothing serious is anticipated at this point.

However, the coldest air of the winter looks to arrive this weekend, with many locations goin below zero at night, and high temperatures in the single digits and low teens. More snow is possible next week, but I will discuss this in tomorrow’s posting.

Well that’s about it for now! As always, I have to call it as I see it. There will be some surprises, it’s the nature of the beast! Any small wabble or deviation on the track of this storm is going to make a world of difference!!

I will certainly keep everyone posted as much as I can during the storm. Please feel free to message me if you have any questions or concerns, regarding this storm!

Thanks for reading!

Be safe everyone! Have fun watching the Super Bowl!

Pete

Is Winter Over? 2/1/16

Hello! What a difference a year makes! A year ago today, we were getting ready to watch one of the best Super Bowl victories of all time. we all cheered, as our beloved Patriots snatched victory from defeat against the Seattle Seahawks to win Super Bowl XLIX, in dramatic fashion!

What was also dramatic was the weather! While we were watching the Super Bowl, Mother Nature was also working on her own main event. In the early morning hours after the Patriots won the Super Bowl, snow rapidly spread across the Boston area.

The next day could only be desrcibed as weather chaos! Snow fell heavily throughout the whole day, being whipped by gale force winds along the coast, creating near white out conditions. The storm, underforecasted by many local meteorologists, did not officially end until late at night.

After all was said and done, many communities were buried under 16 to 24″ of snow. Some areas on the south shore actually closed in on 30″, only this storm!

This storm was only the second in a historic string of 4 major snowstorms that crippled the Boston area last February with 94.4″ of snow in 28 days! The first being the major blizzard Juno, on January 26th, that buried Boston under 24 to 30″ of snow!

Lucky for the city, with the Patriots winning the Super Bowl, many people decided not to go into work that day. People who work as plow operators seemed to of also been caught offgaurd by the intensity of the storm. Roads across the city were a disaster. It seemed that the people who ventured out in the storm, were getting stuck everywhere, and some even stranded in their cars.

For me, it was a dream come true! It may have been a once in a lifetime event, watching the Patriots win the Super Bowl, then having a major winter storm slam the area the next day!

That was last year, what about this year? As I walked outside this morning, I could not believe the difference! I took a deep breathe, and certainly smelled spring in the air! Not only that, but the sun was shining, and the birds were singing to their hearts content! Meaning they are loving this warm weather!

There’s no denying it any longer. We are living through the exact opposite of last year’s historic winter. On average, Boston is currently experiencing its warmest winter in recorded history!

This holds true for many cities and towns in Maine, New Hampshire, and even Vermont! Snow up in the ski resorts has been scarce, and snow mobiling and cross country skiing is almost non existant.

As forecasted, areas in the Mid Atlantic region not only has been colder, but also received an enormous blizzard last weekend. This storm brought a seasons worth of snow to many cities, and to some, an all time record snowfall!

As the storm pulled away, heavy snow briefly made it up to Boston, with 6″ falling in just a few hours. Had that snow not made it as far north as Boston, we would of been looking at only 4″ of snow accumulation to the date.

So why has the Mid Atlantic region seen more snow and cold weather so far this winter? Well, a lot has to do with El Nino. Typically, in El Nino winters, the southern branch of the jet stream is stronger than the northern branch.

During El Nino, these two branches remain seperate, also called a split flow. Occasionally, as in the case of the blizzard, these two streams will phase, right near the Mid Atlantic area. Because the way high pressure is configured to the north, these storms move more easterly, out to sea, rather than up the coast towards New England.

In addition, higher pressure tends to develop the further north one goes. This is called a positive anomaly. As the winter matures, a negative anomaly, or low pressure tends to develop across the Mid Atlantic and southeast states. This can lead to colder than normal temperatures for this region, as well as the possibitly of a major storm or two.

What about here in New England? the problem I’ve had with this winter so far, has been the persistance of warm weather across the region. The positive anomaly (warm temperatures) would retreat for a time into southern Canada, only to come flooding back in when the pattern relaxed.

Part of the problem has been that the Polar Vortex has been so strong up in the North Pole. This is true, a strong Polar Vortex actually can mean warmer winter weather for us!

It’s when the vortex weakens, and splits into pieces, that cold and stormy weather can hit New England. Shortly I will explain how this may briefly happen next week.

Computer models were also forecasting a much wetter winter for eastern New England, which for the most part, has not been the case thus far.

What I was counting on, was a very active El Nino driven sub tropical jet (warm + moisture) riding up the east coast, supplying eastern New England with periods of stormy weather.

At times, I believed the moisture would mix with the air which was just cold enough, to produce snow. So far, the two have not been able to mix, and msot storms have either missed, or fallen as rain.

Looking ahead, we still have a possibilty of this happening. I believe sometime between February 10th through the 14th. And then again one more time sometime at the beginning of March. After that, our window for any wintery weather will close quickly, as spring begins to advance northward.

Since we can’t manufacture cold the traditional way, we may have to pull a rabbit out of the hat this winter, as they say! This would involve a phenomina called “Sudden Stratopheric Warming” event.

This stuff begins to get very complicated folks, and I will do the best I can to explain it so we all can understand it! SSW is when warm weather floods the Polar regions up in the stratosphere.

As the stratosphere warms, it can disrupt the Polar Vortex, squeezing, and elongating it. If the SSW is strong enough, it can sometimes split it, and break it apart.

If this happens, it can send lobes of very cold air southward towards the United Sates. The idea is these cold outbreaks will develop deep troughs of low pressure across the eastern part of the country.

If the set up is ideal, a strong storm can develop in the southern tier of the United States, and ride the boundary between warm air to our east, and cold air to our west. If the storm passes east of New England, a significant winter storm could be the end result.

Looking over the latest computer models and long range guidance, I do believe we have the chance of a significant winter storm to strike New England sometime between February 10th and 14th.

After that, the pattern may turn mild again for the balance of the month, only to possibly deliver one more maojor storm to begin March.

So quickly in review, I am expecting February to feature a lot of ups and downs. However, as has been the case the whole winter, I do believe that this month too, will average above normal temperatures.

Boston typically averages about 12″ of snow in February. Last year, Boston received a collosal 65″ of snow for the month! Because of the threat of that one big storm, I do believe this is our best chance to receive a heavy accumulation here in Boston. For this reason, I believe Boston may end up with above normal snow for the month.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Nothing but spring for the rest of today! Expect ight winds, mainly sunny skies, and temperatures soaring into the mid 60’s!! Get out and enjoy!!

Watch for some increasing clouds, with just a chance of some scattered showers tonight. A wind shift into the west will bring colder weather in, with lows in the 20’s and low 30’s by dawn.

Tuesday will be a cooler day, but certainly not cold. A mixture of sun and clouds may give way to mostly cloudy skies by days end. It will be cooler, with high temperatures will mainly be in the 40’s.

Don’t forget, tomorrow is Groundhog’s Day! As Pennsylvania has Punxsutawney Phil, Massachusetts has its own groundhog, Ms. G! In both states, the groundhog should see its shadow! This means 6 more weeks of winter! Last year, the groundhog was buried in snow here in massachusetts!

A strong storm will pass well to our west on Wednseday. As it does, a surge of warm air will once again flood up the coast! In addition, the region will experience strong, gusty winds, along with tropical like downpours, with some thunder to boot?

Skies should clear, and winds will pick up again out of the west on Thursday. It won’t be cold for February standards, but the brisk wind will make it feel chilly.

Another ocean storm looks to stay just offshore for Friday. A few flurries can not be ruled out. It will be chilly, with highs mainly in the 30’s.

Right now, the weekend will start off dry and seasonable, with highs mainly in the 30’s. As we head into Sunday, another storm may appraoch as a clipper type storm. This may spread some clouds into the region along with the chance of some snow or rain showers.

Another one of these storms may dig deeper into the south at the beginning of next week. Should this happen, a stronger storm amy develop.

Right now, computer models are showing a significant nor’easter tracking up the coast, bring heavy snows, and strong winds. This is still a week out, and we know how things can change, but I will monitor it nonetheless!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing in more detail what kind of weather we can expect for the remaining part of winter.

I will also be on the look out to see if we can get a real storm for the ski resorts here in New England! In the meantime, whether the groundhog sees his shadow or not, I would expect 6 more weeks of winter! Winter lingers into April some years! This is New England, after all!

Thanks for reading!

Be Safe,

Pete