Quiet…For Now! 1/25/16

Hello! After months of tranquil weather, Mother Nature made a grand entrance, shocking many with a historic blizzard for the Mid-Atlantic region this past weekend!

Overall, most computer models and meteorologists did a good job, forecasting this storm days in advance. The blizzard was never a question in the Mid-Atlantic, as computer models had a bullseye over this area some 48 hours in advance, and did not waiver from this solution.

The question was up here, in New England. It was a really close call whether blizzard conditions would envelop Massachusetts or not. The reason for this was a sharp cutoff across our area, due to fast just stream winds moving from west to east, high above us.

So far this winter, we have been in a pattern called a split flow. This means the two jet streams are seperate. Computer models have difficulty in predicting when these two streams phase together, to cause a big storm.

Often, this happens unexpectedly right along the east coast. As they merged along the Mid Atlantic coast, they diverged, or seperated across New England. This shunted the storm more east, rather than moving northeast up the coast.

As it was, blizzard like conditions did push into Boston briefly during Saturday evening. I had confidence the snow was going to push into Boston. What surprised me was the intensity of the snow when it pushed into the city.

During this period, snow fell heavily for a few hours, along with gusty northeast winds. A very quick fluffy 6″ in most parts of the city, before the snow dwindled to flurries during the mid evening.

For this reason, Boston received somewhat higher accumulations than what I had anticipated for. Otherwise, I feel as if the forecast worked out fairly well. The brunt of the storm certainly was felt south of us.

To be classified as an official blizzard, winds must be sustained at 35 m.ph. for at least 3 consecutive hours, as well as visibility cut to a 1/4 mile or less by falling or blowing snow. Noticed how I said blowing snow.

This is a common mistake people make when they hear blizzard. Automatically in their minds, they think of being buried by tremendous amounts of snow.

Yes, this is what can happen, but technically, this is not true. Sometimes, a blizzard can occur with only a couple inches of snow falling.

This type of blizzard typically occurrs in the midwest, where the land is flat, and the wind can whip the snow around, reducing visibility to near zero! The snow is typically a very fine, powdery snow, sometimes referred to as arctic dust.

Obviously, when sustained winds of 35 m.ph. are met with snow accumulations of between 24 and 40,” a severe blizzard is the outcome. Many reporting stations recorded their all time heaviest snow fall on record.

This included, Allentown, PA. which came in at 31.9.” Among other notable records broken was in Baltimmore, MD. where 29.2″ of snow fell. Even J.F.K. airport in N.Y. broke their all time record with a whopping 30.5″!

Heavy accumulations skirted the southern New England coast, including Cape Cod & the Islands, where an official blizzard was recorded. Many areas in this zone had between 10 and 18.” Falmouth, Ma. got hit hard with 15.5″ of heavy wet snow falling!

I find it very ironic, that this was the same weekend when the snow blitz began in Boston last year. As you all recall, Boston received an incredible 94.4″ of snow in about 24 days. And it didn’t stop there, as we finished with a all time record 110.8″ of snow for the season.

This all started with a light snowfall on January 24th. Then, two days later, Blizzard Juno struck Boston, with between 24 and 30″ falling across the city.

Is this the beginning of another snowmaggedan? Well, so far, the winter forecast, has been working out right on point! A blizzard was forecasted for several months now, centered over the Mid-Atlantic region.

Mother Nature balanced things out a bit, as this was the region that missed all the blizzards of last year. I would like to take all the credit, but this showed up very well on long range computer models.

Long range technical weather discussions by the weathersite organization, WeatherBell Analytics have also done a superior job compared to other sites, in forecasting this pattern recognition.

Also, amatuer meteorologists have also done an incredible job, in forecasting a huge turn around to the pattern this winter. If it doesn’t snow another flake in this region, it has already been a victory, as many of these reporting stations exceeded their seasonal snowfall amounts, in one storm!

Because of the configuration of the block in Canada, the worst of this winter would be centered across the Mid-Atlantic states. So far, this has come to fruition. It was also forecasted to be a milder winter than last winter.

Despite the turn to colder temperatures here in January, it’s still running well above average due to the outrageously warm November and December. But that’s not the whole story. Computer models are continuing to show a colder than average February and March.

As the block retrogrades a bit more into western Canada, this could open the door for Boston and eastern New England to get hit with it’s own blizzard. Before you get concerned, I am not looking for a repeat of last years apocalyptic snows.

However, as I mentioned in my winter forecast, we would have a winter that featured overall milder temperatures, along with the possibilty of a couple heavy snowstorms, and the chance of a blizzard…concentrated later in the season, around March in paricular. Thus the title, “Mild, But Still Wild!”

For those wondering, here’s the difference. Last year was a extreme winter pattern. All the indexes were at extreme levels, leading to extreme events.

Last year, the PDO (warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific) were at record high levels. This lead to extreme blocking in western Canada and Alaska.

This allowed a huge trough of low pressure to develop from Greenland down to New England last winter, resulting in all time record bitterly cold temperatures to settle into the region.

This year, the PDO has weakened. It hasn’t gone away, but this has made for a more transient pattern. The diffence this year is that pressures are building up in Canada. This will lead to more traditional blocking up there.

As pressure builds, it displaces the cold air up there, and pushes it down into the eastern part of the country, as colder than normal air.

Adding to all of this, is a still very active El Nino fueled sub tropical jet stream (warm and wet). When the polar jet (cold with energy) phases with the sub tropical jet, is when we get our biggest storms.

As we witenessed this past weekend, as the two jet streams phased along the east coast, resulting in a historic blizzard.

It will only take a small westward adjustment of this block, for another blizzard to cripple eastern New England this winter. So far, it’s been a winter of just misses for Boston. It’s possible that this could be the case for the rest of the winter, but unlikely from what I’m seeing.

Because of the transient pattern in place, I do not envision another snow blitz for Boston this winter. It may be we get a heavy snowstorm, but the pattern is such that it relaxes after, and warms up for a bit. Only to turn colder and stormy again.

This looks to be the case as we head into the first week of February. It could be a case of false spring fever across the region to start the month.

But signs are already in place of another sharp change during the second week of the month. This change could bring with it another bitter cold blast, as well as the chance of another possible blizzard.

As we move deeper into the month, and even through the first part of March, I expect the winter pattern to settle in, with frequent storms and colder than normal weather.

Before we get to the warm up anticipated at the start of February, there is the chance of a fast moving storm to brush eastern New England come Thursday night into Friday. Computer models are not in agreement as to what may happen.

The American GFS model has this storm sailing harmlessly out to sea.

However, the European model comes a bit closer to us. Should this model verify, this would bring eastern Massachusetts a period of light wet snow. Because of the fast movement of the storm, it would not have the chance for heavy accumulations.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Milder, but still the threat of a winter storm later.

Expect mainly sunny, along with cobalt blue skies for the rest of your Monday. It will be pleasant for January standards, with highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Tonight will be clear and chilly. Early temperatures in the 20’s, will tend to rise as we head towards morning.

Expect a milder day on Tuesday. Clouds will be increasing throughout the day. Gusty southwest winds will make it feel a bit cooler than what it really is. Highs will be in the lower 50’s across southeastern Massachusetts, near 50 in Boston, and upper 40’s north and west of Boston.

Tuesday night will feature the chance of some scattered showers across the region, no washout is anticipated. Lows will be mainly in the 30’s.

Wednesday will be a bit cooler, with a mixture of sun and clouds, highs will be upper 30’s and lower 40’s. After some early morning clouds, expect partial sunshine to develop during the day.

It will turn colder Wednseday night into Thursday. Expect lows to be in the 20’s, and highs mainly in the 30’s on Thursday.

Friday is day in question. Right now, I will take the conservative route, due to the differences in computer models. Starting very early Friday morning, there is a chance of light wet snow developing, moving from south to north.

If the storm takes the current track, we will be on the western fringe of the moisture. If this holds true we can expect maybe an inch of wet snow to fall. If the storm is more east, there will be very little, if any accumulations.

However, if this storm comes closer, and intensifies, this could turn into a more significant event. If this is the case, I will update everyone on Facebook, Twitter and on this blog.

Whatever happens Friday, the cold and stormy weather will pull up into Canada, leaving us with moderating temperatures and generally fair weather for the weekend. A nice weekend for a winter hike, or some skiing!

As is the case in El Nino winters, northern New England has been left out of any snowfall as of late. This will change the deeper we get into the winter, with larger storms affecting more areas of northern New England.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a review of the month of January, and look ahead with my February outlook.

We are almost two thirds through meteorological winter! In the meantime, enjoy the quiet period, we know that last month can be a doozy!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Mid Atlantic Mauler…1/20/16

Hi, everyone! Just wanted to give a quick update in regards to the potential storm for this weekend. Yesterday, afternoon computer models surpressed the storm, and it looked like we were in the clear.

Then, drama built late last night, as computer models developed the storm farther north, bringing a severe blizzard to the mid atlantic region, and a very significant storm possibly as far north as to Boston.

As fate would have it, today’s computer models have once again surpressed the brunt of the storm to our south!

If you recall on Monday, computer models were all in excellent agreement with all of them showing a significant I95 blizzard from D.C. to Boston. Since the energy for the storm was still over the Pacific Ocean, I mentioned that we should proceed with caution. Once this energy reached the west coast, computer models would adjust, and the outcome may change.

Now that computer models are back in agreement, I’m fairly confident that the brunt of this storm is going to spare the Boston area points north, a major storm.

This will not be the case for folks living in the mid atlantic region, which includes cities such as Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, and possibly up to New York City as well.

If things come together as planned, these cities can expect a full fledged blizzard to develop later Friday, and continue for much of the day Saturday.

After reviewing computer data, these cities can expect between 1 and 2 feet of wind driven snow. Some areas of Virginia may even get a bit more!

If the heavy precipitation makes it up to New York City, they too may receive between 10 and 15″ of snow. Strong winds will result in plenty of blowing and drifting of the snow.

In addition, very strong northeast winds will batter the coastline of New Jersey, and even up to Long Island. Storm force gusts of between 40 and 70 m.ph. are possible during the height of the storm.

Looking over the latest computer guidance, it appears that most of New England will be spared a direct hit from the storm. The storm is expected to take a more easterly, rather than a northeasterly track. With this track, the light precipitation shield may make it as far north as to Boston.

Right now, light snow could slowly spread up into Boston from south to north during Saturday night. Light to perhaps moderate snow could continue into Sunday morning, before tapering down to flurries. Winds will also pick up out of the northeast, and it may look like a real storm is coming, blowing the snow around.

If you live along the coast, winds may be somewhat stronger, with gusts of between 30 and 40 m.p.h. This, along with a full moon this weekend, will result in minor splashover, and perhaps the minor coastal flooding to flood prone areas.

The gradient between snow, and no snow will be very tight. The further you live south of Boston, the heavier the snow may be. At this point, I am expecting between 2 and 4″ of snow for Boston. A

As you travel south of Boston to the Taunton, Providence R.I. to eastern parts of Connecticut, this may build up to 3 to 6.” Same goes if you live north of Boston, amounts will rapidly decrease to 1 to 3″ and this may be too generous. No snow is expected in northern New England from this storm.

Some years, this is how Mother Nature works. Last year, historic snows crippled the Boston area, while widely missing other east coast cities. This year, she may be balancing things out, as she always likes to do!

This is my call now. We are still 3 days away from the event, and computer models may show a different scenerio come tomorrow. If things do change, I will be sure to update everyone! You can always get the latest weather update from the National Weather Service, or your favorite media outlet. I am always happy to try and answer any questions, too!

I will be posting at my regular time on Monday if nothing changes. In the meantime, whatever happens, please safe out there!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

I’M WATCHING IT! 1/18/16

Hello, all! And just like that, winter is here! A fast moving nor’easter raced up the coast on Saturday, delivering soaking rains, which ended as a period of wet snow here in Boston. It was a different story further inland, where a couple inches of heavy wet snow made for slippery roads and a wintery scene to the landscape!

Sunday turned much colder. A rapidly developing storm system offshore, sent a plume of snowfall into eastern Massachusetts overnight. By the time we woke up, nearly 4″ of powdery snow fell across the city. Beacuse of the fluffy nature of the snow, clean up was quick and easy.

Unfortunately, time is very limited for me today. I am very much aware that there is the potential for a major east coast storm for the mid-atlantic region, extending right up into New England coming up for this weekend.

I have mentioned this before, but it’s worth mentioning again. With the advent of technology these days, information is spewing out faster than Old Faithful geyser, in Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming!

Social media outlets such as Twitter & Facebook are double edged swords. It’s wonderful how quick we can send and receive information in a matter of seconds. Sometimes, however, it can be a case of too much information all at once.

Being a weather enthusiast, I totally understand the excitement a big storm can bring to the table. I used to stay up all night watching storms! I would anxiously wait for updates from Bob Copeland and Don Kent on a little black & white t.v.

All the while, I would be listening to my trusty little weather radio! Looking back, I’m surprised my parents never questioned my odd behavior towards my love of the weather!

With all that being said, there needs to be some restraint when it comes to forecasting big storms. This is especially true when we still have a whole week to monitor the data!

As I mentioned earlier to a friend, the energy for this storm is still located in the central Pacific Ocean! As of right now, we are relying on super computer guidance from European and American models. When this energy crashed into the west coast on Wednseday, is when all the fun and games can begin!

For this reason, I will be writing two posts this week. Today’s post will focus on bringing attention to everyone what my thoughts are regarding this storm. On Wednesday, if conditions warrant, I will write a more detailed post on what we can expect from this potentially dangerous storm.

Before then, I’m going to remain in control, and not fall into the hype trap. As I mentioned eralier, It’s not worth overhyping the storm from now. Computer models can change quite a bit from one run to another. Many American models have 4 computer runs, every 6 hours. While European models run twice a day, every 12 hours. I will wait until better data comes in on Wednesday.

Before I get to the storm, I would like to say I am very pleased at how my winter forecast is progressing. Predictions on a back ended winter seems to becoming to fruition.

If you have been reading my blog over the course of the winter, you know the reasons why winter is coming. If you havn’t been reading, or forgot, here are a few brief reasons.

First, El Nino is weakening. Computer models were forecasting this to occur from way back in the fall. This allows the northern polar jet (cold & dry) to strengthen.

Second, increased high latitude blocking in Canada. This has increased high pressure in Canda, while pushing cold air down into the eastern U.S.

Third, a very active El Nino driven sub-tropical jet (warm & moist) sending storms across the southern tier of the united States. We get our largest storms when these two jet streams phase along the east coast.

With all that being said, I would like to go over some important information that you need to know regarding the potential of this storm. Computer models are indicating these two jet streams phasing along the east coast this weekend.

This creates a very volatile, explosive situation. On top of that, strong, blocking high pressure is building north of New England. This has the look of a very significant east coast nor’easter, if not historic blizzard somewhere between Washington D.C. up to Boston.

Pressure differences between the strong high pressure to the north, and the deep low pressure to the south, will generate storm force, to possibly even hurricane force winds along the coast. In addition, because of blocking high pressure to our north, this storm may be in no hurry to get out of here.

Current projections have the storm exploding off the mid atlantic coast Friday night, then only slowly moving it northeast, passing just southeast of Nantucket Island late Saturday into Sunday morning. With a track like that, blizzard conditions would certainly be possible along the I95 corridor from washington D.C. up to Boston.

In addition, we would need to closely monitor coastal flooding issues along the coast. With such powerful winds blowing in from the northeast, moderate to major coastal flooding is a possibility.

As of this writing, computer models are in amazing agreement for this storm to develop. The most recent more reliable European computer model actually increased its intensity on today’s run, projecting a devastating storm to rage along the I95 corridor.

From what I’m seeing right now, this is not a storm to be taken lightly. If computer models hold steady, a storm of historic proportions would not be out of the question for the I95 corridor.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. This week is rated a 2 out of 10. Stormy! For the rest of today, expect sunny and very cold weather. Highs will only be in the 20’s. Watch for clear and bitterly cold tonight, with lows in the single digits! Tuesday will feature mainly sunny and very cold weather, with highs in the teens and lower 20’s.

A fast moving system will bring some clouds tomorrow night, with a slight chance of a period of light snow, mainly south of Boston to the Cape. Any light snow will move out on Wednesday, with clearing skies. It will still be cold, with highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Thursday will be a tranquil day, with highs in the lower 30’s. Watch for thickening clouds on Friday, with highs in the lower 30’s.

Now, if the storm arrives as projected. Watch for snow to overspread the region from southwest to northeast Friday night. As the storm intensifies, snow will become heavy later at night, along with increasing northeast winds.

If the storm arrives in full fury, Saturday would be a very stormy day! Storm force to hurricane force winds would batter the New England coast, along with blizzrd conditions persisting through much of the day.

I will not talk specifics until my post on Wednesday, so please check back then! Storm would slowly wind down early Sunday.

That’s about it for now! I will be updating my forecast late Wednesday, so please check back. In the meantime, it would be a good idea to begin preparing for the storm. Check snowblowers, elderly, plenty of food. Also, if you live along the ocean, be prepared to evacuate your house! I see it! and I’m watching it! I will update everyone!

As always…Thanks for reading, & be safe!

Pete

*Feel free to message me or contact me with any questions*

*********ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, SO PLEASE CHECK BACK WEDNESDAY! THANK YOU!**********

Lots of Potential! 1/11/16

Good morning! After quite a dreary weekend, the sun is out shining brightly once again this morning! It didn’t snow in Boston this past weekend, although my sister up in New Hampshire did report a that a quick dusting of snow fell early Saturday morning.

As the storm intensified to our west, a surge of record warm temperatures made Sunday feel like late April around here. In fact, every major city in southern New England reported record high temperatures.

Along with a wind driven soaking rain, Boston hit 58 degrees last evening, making yesterday, the warmest temperature ever recorded for this date!

Wow! When will it end? Yes, it has changed somewhat for the first third of January, but not by much! Boston has still not recorded even an inch of snow this winter, and temperatures are still averaging above normal this month, even with the chillier weather as of late!

Fortunately, it’s become just cold enough up north, for many ski resorts to be able to make snow. Unfortunately, the monsoon of yesterday even penetrated deep into ski country, melting a lot of the snow that had been made over the last couple weeks. To say it has been frustrating, is an understatement.

It’s not just folks that go skiing, either. Winter storm enthusiasts such as myself, have been closed down for business so far this winter. The patterns over the past few winters have been feast or famon, for sure.

Amazingly enough, it was just one year ago at this time, I was writing about the exact same thing. Last year, Boston had only received a total of 2.9″ of snow up until January 24th. A rapidly developing nor’easter brought 4″ of heavy wet snow on the 24th.

Meteorologists were then keeping a close eye on another storm to hit the region on Monday, the 26th. What first looked as if the storm would pass out to sea, the storm suddenly shifted closer to the coast, and also became very intense on computer models.

The storm would be named winter storm “Juno” and would develop into a fierce blizzard, for much of eastern New England, depositing nearly 30″ of snow in many communities.

This would be the first of 4 major winter storms / blizzards to slam eastern Massachusetts with an unprecedented 94.4″ of snow within a 28 day period.

Indeed, the shift in the pattern was shocking to residents, meteorologists, and government official alike.

So here we are, one year later, what’s the pattern looking like this year? To be honest, I am amazed just how similar to last year the pattern is unfolding this winter. A few things are happening, which I thought were going to happen when I made my winter forecast back in November.

First, I was fairly confident on another slow starting winter. This was partly due to the one of the strongest El Nino’s on record in the southern Pacific Ocean.

Second, the abnormally warm ocean temperatures off the Atlantic coast this past fall. Because of latent heating and cooling, it has taken this long for the ocean to cool, off our coast. This has finally allowed some cold air from southern Canada, to slowly ooze down into New England.

Third, the warm water in the northern Pacific, is promoting a ridge of high pressure to build once again in western Canada. This has blocked warm Pacific air from flooding across the country into New England.

As these global factors begin to take shape, computer models have been picking up on these changes, and have been hinting at some wild weather ahead for us here in New England. Does this mean I am expecting another snowmaggedon to attack us this winter? As I have mentioned in previous posts, I don’t believe this will be the case this year.

At least not to the degree of last year. With that being said, computer models have been hinting at a major storm hitting New England for some time now. Latest runs have that storm hitting on, you guessed it…January 24th!

Even though the pattern is heading towards a similar look to last year, does not mean we’re going to get bombarded with snow. The atmosphere doesn’t work that way. It was such a fine balance last winter, of mixing the two air masses, over such a tight gradient.

To have persistantly record cold temperatures, mix just right with the sub tropical jet stream, is only something Mother Nature could pull off! Bitter cold air, passing over the relatively warmer ocean, also helped to enhance these prolific snowfalls.

This year has some subtle differences. First, El Nino is much stronger. This has been pumping abnormally warm temperatures off the south Pacific, right into the eastern part of the United States, especially here in New England.

This lead to the abnoxiously warm November and December. Although El Nino is weakening, it still is inluencing our weather here in January. Second, the PDO, (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the northern Pacific), does not appear to be as warm as last year.

This has allowed the trough of low pressure to be more persistant across western Canada and Alaska. What this all means is that we have a watered down look to last year, or a weaker signal.

With all that being said, things are on the move! The warm bubble of air parked over New England for several months, has finally migrated into central Canada. These are called positive anomalies, when high pressure is in Canada, negative anomalies develop to the south.

This is associated with a strong El Nino driven sub tropical jet stream, cutting underneath the block to the north. This negative anomaly is finally pushing into New England. As strange as it sounds, winter is actually building into New England from the south this year!

As the season matures, I still believe we are going to have a pretty severe stretch of winter weather this year. As I have mentioned many times, the period between January 20th and March 20th will feature colder than average temperatures, with frequent snow storms. One of these storms should turn into a east coast blizzard, from D.C. to Boston.

I am still calling for near, to slightly above snowfall this winter for the Boston area. Locations in the mid-atlantic region should begin to prepare for a severe spell of winter weather coming up this February. Even here in Boston, February should be the toughest month this winter…again!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I am rating this week a 6 out of 10. Expect mainly sunny weather for the rest of this afternoon. It will be windy and colder, with highs mainly in the mid 30’s. Wind chills will be in the 20’s, so bundle up!

Expect clear and cold weather tonight, with lows mainly in the 20’s. Tuesday will be a changeable day. Expect clouds to be on the increase quite rapidly. During the afternoon, watch for rain showers to break out from Boston, points south. These rain showers will be snow showers to the north and west of Rt 128. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30’s across the region.

Tuesday evening is a bit tricky. A clipper type low will be moving across northern New England. This low will transfer energy south of New England to a new low. As this happens, cold air will be plunging into the coastal plain.

If the two combine together, there may be a quick burst of snowfall in Boston, points north, right around the evening commute. This will not be a big storm around here, but the timing may result in a slippery evening commute.

I am only expecting a coating to perhaps as much as 2″ of snow across the area, depending on how much moisture is available. Again, timing could be an issue. As you head north, as much as 1 to 3″ of snow could fall across much of New Hampshire.

As the storm intensifies just to our north, it may sock interior Maine at the last second with 6 to 10″ of snow. Less will fall closer to the coast.

Whatever happens Tuesday nightm will be cleared out for Wednesday. It may be sunny, but it will be windy and cold, with highs barely reaching freezing!

Expect fair weather to continue for both Thursday and Friday, with highs mainly in the 30’s.

Earlier, computer models were showing a major snowstorm for much of the Boston area this weekend. Since then, they have backed off on this scenerio. Right now, I would I am actually calling for rain to develop Saturday afternoon. If you are going to the Patriots game, prepare for wet and cold conditions.

As the storm moves off the coast, the rain may change to snow late at night and continue into the first part of Sunday. This is very preliminary and this forecast is subject to change. Computer models are not in agreement.

The American GFS model is calling for an all rain event, with the primary low passing west of New England. However, the European model is developing a low pressure, and moves it south of New England. Should that verify, we could be looking at our first substantial snowfall of the season. I will update if conditions warrant.

For those with outdoor rinks. After yesterday’s meltdown, I believe conditions will be more suitable for rink ice over the next 7 to 10 days. After some brief warming, it may turn very cold next week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be closely monitoring the evolving winter pattern. I will update everyone on any chance for future wintery weather events. I will also have your new outdoor skating rink, and ski and snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, keep an eye on this fickle weather pattern, but for now, you don’t have to shovel potential!

Thanks for reading, everyone!

Pete

ATMOSPHERIC CHAOS! 1/4/16

Happy New Year, to all! Other than a few light flurries, it was a very tranquil first day to the new year. It was a bit colder, but nothing abnormal for this time of the year. The weekend improved, with mostly sunny skies returning, and temperatures that were actually still a bit above average!

In my last post, I was forecasting our first bout of wintery weather. Indeed, many areas witnessed their fist snowfall last Tuesday morning. My sister Pam, up along the seacoast region of New Hampshire, recorded 5″ of snow! Here in Boston, a heavy mixture of snow and sleet measured close to 1″ before it changed to rain.

However, that was not the end of the story! During the afternoon, the wind shifted to the north, and a flash freeze glazed the city over in a sheet of ice! If you did not remove the slush, Wednesday did not help out, with no sunshine, and temperatures remaining in the upper 20’s.

Milder weather followed on Thursday, allowing for easier clean up. Overall, despite the record warm December, it did turn into quite a nasty little storm, for our first bout with winter. It’s funny how everything is relative.

I was chatting with one of my weather buddies, and he pointed just how heavy one inch of snow and sleet was to remove, compared to all of the low water content, ultra fluffy snows of last winter. It places things in perspective when doing snow clean ups.

Heavy, water logged snow, mixed with sleet or freezing rain, may offer much lower accumulations, but the hardship of clean up may be 10 times more difficult than fluffy, light snow!

Had the last storm been 1″ of powdery, fluff, there would not of been any clean up to speak of. The city may have salted thge streets, but plows certainly would not of been necessary.

As it turned out, the city did have to plow, and because of the nature of the snow, it collected into some impressive snow banks! Had it been light, powdery snow, you may of broken out the broom for a quick brush off before heading off to work!

With storm tracks close to the coast this year, I’m afraid this may have been a warm up for several more sloppy storms such as that one, coming over the course of this winter.

Speaking of winter, you don’t have to know too much about the weather, to know that we have gotten off to a very slow start this year.

Temperatures have been so warm, for so long, that it seemed as if winter was never going to come. The months of November and December combined was some of the warmest temperatures ever recorded for this time of the year in Boston.

In fact, December broke a record for being the warmest December ever recorded, not only here in Boston, but to many other cities here in the northeast.

Yet, despite this incredibly warm period, there was a subtle change to the pattern…just after Christmas. We all know just how warm it was on Christmas Day.

However, the storm that delivered a mixed mess down here in Boston, brought a miracle snowfall for New England ski resorts, just in a nick of time! Up until that day, many mountains were struggling to even make snow, never mind any natural stuff.

This last second storm, slavalged a good part of the Christmas vacation week for skiers and snow boarders! in fact, this storm may have salvaged the season for many resorts!

Since then, it has been plenty cold enough for full snow making operations to resume in the mountains. In addition, many areas have picked up more natural snow with frequent snow flurries & squalls.

This storm also hit southern Quebec very hard. Montreal, Quebec, measured a record snowfall, with nearly 20″ of snow falling. They too, along with much of New England, also enjoyed much above normal temperatures this fall.

What does this all mean for us this winter?? As mentioned above, we have gotten off to a very slow start to winter this year. It was just one year ago, that we were in a very similar position. To refresh your memory, it wasn’t until January 24th, until we had our first real storm.

Does this mean another stearn punishment is on the way similar to last year? At this point, I don’t believe this winter is going to be a repeat of last. However, I would like to quickly review what was said, and what we can expect moving forward.

According to my winter forecast made last November 23rd, we are moving forward according to schedule. The forecast called for a back ended winter, with December being the mildest of the three months.

Granted, I did not expect December to end up as warm as it did. But this falls into the type of winter we’re going top experience. A winter featuring extreme swings, with the first part of it warm, and the second part, much colder!

looking at the glass half full, I think it was very nice of Mother Nature to supply us with an unprecedented stretch of warm and tranquil weather over the last several months!

As for snowfall, we are running behind as was forecasted. However, much like last year, winter is saving its best for last! Currently, the atmosphere is undergoing a major transformation from a warm and dry pattern, to a cold and stormy one.

As was forecasted by computer models, El Nino is beginning to weaken from its historic strength. This does not mean it’s going away! It just means its positioning is changing in the Pacific Ocean. And the factors that were causing a persistant warm pattern across New England is diminishing.

In addition, the warm ocean temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean are beginning to build a blocking ridge of high pressure in western Canada and Alaska.

When this occurs, it squeezes the Polar Vortex over the North Pole, breaking it into pieces, sending it southward towards eastern part of the U.S. As all of this is happening, high pressure continues to build across much of Canada.

This is called blocking over the top. We can’t really call it a Greenland Block, because currently the blocking is forming in western parts of Canada. As this block builds, it transfers the “mild” air in Canada, south and east into the U.S. and New England.

The trick is, what was mild air up in Canada, is much colder than normal by the time it reaches us here in the states. As all of this is happening, a energetic El Nino driven sub tropical jet stream (warm + wet) will be undercutting the bock above, sending plumes of moisture racing across the country.

As the ridge builds in western Canada, it will develop a energetic polar jet stream (cold + dry) diving down towards the east coast. When these two streams phase near the east coast, is when we experience our biggest storms.

This kind of set up is different than last year. Last winter, we had a massive block in western Canada. This allowed the Polar Vortex to extend from Greenland right down into New England. Another massive block in the western Atlantic, forced storms to develop along the east coast, and move straight north, east of New England.

This placed eastern Massachusetts in the sweet spot for repetitive heavy snowfalls. This year, the block to our north may surpress some of these snowstorms, making areas in the mid-atlantic region more vulnerable for heavy snow.

As mentioned above, the atmosphere is in a state of chaos. Everything is shuffling around to settle into the new winter pattern. We know the atmosphere is going to snap like a rubber band, the question is just how much is it going to sting when it snaps?

Much like last year, the worst of winter will be focused between January 20th to March 20th. I am still expecting several snowstorms hitting New England, but nothing like last year.

There still is the possibility of an east coast blizzard on the table, sometime during that period. This could clock I95 cities such as Washington D.C. Philadelphia, New York, perhaps up to Boston with a big storm, sometime during February or early March.

As for this January, expect wild swings in temperatures. With this type of pattern, I would think twice about setting up outdoor skating rinks this winter. The computer models show too much variability. We will have periods of bitter cold weather, only to quickly ease to milder periods.

Overall, January temperatures may end slightly below average in Boston. I am expecting several snowfalls, especially after January 10th. Logan airport averages about 14″ of snow during January. We should end up very close to this number, or maybe even slightly above, if the storms arrive as planned.

I must say, this is a very changeable forecast. Computer models are behaving very erratically right now. Even as close as this weekend, models were showing a strong nor’easter off our coast last night, only to back off today.

This does not mean they can’t come back to that original thought. There is so much variability going on, anything could happen at this point. If something more serious should develop, I will be here to update everyone.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. As the arctic cold front moves through the area today, it will interact with a developing storm offshore, spreading areas of snow showers across the area! There may be a dusting around the city.

However, as a strong north wind develops this afternoon, bands of ocean effect snow may bring periods of heavy snow down the Cape, with accumulations of 2 to 4″ in some places. With the strong winds, this will create a very wintery scenerio down there, with areas of blowing and drifting snow. This is a localized effect, and typically does not effect areas further inland.

Snow may continue down the Cape well into tonight. Otherwise, skies will clear across the rest of the region. Bitter cold weather will blast into New England, with lows in the single digits and lower to mid teens in the cities.

Tuesday will feature sunny and cold weather, with highs in the mid 20’s. Fair and cold weather will be on tap for tomorrow night, with lows in the teens, and lower 20’s. Wednesday and Thursday will feature sunny and milder weather, with highs moving back up into the lower 40’s.

Right now, the period of Friday into the weekend is subject to change. The two major computer models are at odds as to what’s going to happen.

The American based GFS model is colder, and shows some periods of mixed precipitation Friday night and into Sunday. It also shows a more significant storm later on Sunday and Sunday night, which could bring either rain, snow, or a mixture of the two.

The European model is warmer, and shows disorganized areas of rain Friday into Saturday. It too shows a more siginifiant storm later Sunday, but tracks it to our west, driving a warm surge of air up the coast, resulting in heavy rain. I will update this forecast if I feel conditions warrant.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be following our changing patterns very closely, and share with you any new thoughts that I may have. I will also have your new ski and snowboard forecast. In the meantime, get ready for a wild ride, as Mother Nature decides what to do!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Signs of Winter…12/28/15

Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas, and holiday season! I had a very peaceful and relaxing Christmas spending time at my sister’s house on the seacoast of New Hampshire. I am very grateful to have spent another Christmas with my family at my home away from home in New Hampshire.

The only thing missing was snow! Not only was there not any snow, but I saw bees buzzing around, some flowers popping through the ground, and grass that looked like it could of used a mow!

While sitting on the porch, feeling the warm sun, I was interested in the fascinating clouds in the sky during the afternoon.

High ice crystal clouds, also known as cirrus clouds, refracted sunlight during the late afternoon, resulting in several colorful sun dogs.

Ice crystal clouds refract light from the sun, to literally produce frozen rainbows in the sky! I hope others were able to see this natural phenomina!

There are not enough superlatives to describe the weather over Christmas week. To say it was strange, is a understatement. I mentioned this in a post on my Facebook page, that I was speechless with the weather last week. No doubt, it was the warmest Christmas I have ever witnessed in my lifetime.

Records were being smashed all across the region. Not only for the lack of snow, but also the very warm temperatures. Boston broke a record for their warmest Christmas Eve on record. Providence, R.I. broke a record for their warmest Christmas Day ever recorded! Boston fell just one degree shy for breaking their record on Christmas Day. But who was keeping track?

Whether it was playing with the kids without wearing bulky winter coats, or taking a walk on the beach after Christmas dinner, it was a Christmas that will be remembered for years to come across the region!

So far, it has been an incredibly warm stretch of weather starting last August, and continuing straight through Christmas.

In fact, one could argue it has actually gotten warmer against the averages as we moved through November, and especially here in December. No surprise this is going to go down as the warmest December’s on record!

So far, this December has averaged a whopping 6 degrees warmer than the previous warmest December back in 2006! These departures will lower as we head towards the end of the month, but not enough to knock us out of the warmest December ever recorded.

Weather was certainly a hot topic for discussion during Christmas celebration. Many friends and family were asking me if this is how the rest of the winter is going to go. The short answer to this question, is no!

Even as I write this post, changes are beginning to happen in the atmosphere. Right on schedule, El Nino is starting to weaken. This is still a very strong El Nino, but it’s beginning to decline off record levels reached this fall.

At the same time, high pressure is beginning to build in western Canada. This has started to build a ridge of high pressure in this region.

As this ridge ( warm & dry) builds in western Canada, a trough (cold & stormy) plunges out of eastern Canada down into New England. We can feel the downstream affects here in New England this morning.

For the first time this December, there is feel of winter in the air. As the cold air moves in, a storm will move north from the Ohio Valley and bump into this cold air.

Many areas of New England will see their first snow of the season very late tonight into Tuesday morning. A secondary low pressure will form south of New England and help lock cold air across the deep interior of New England, resulting in heavy snow in the mountains of New Hampshire and northern Maine.

Further south, warmer air will be invading in off of the ocean to change the snow to a wintery mix, and then rain along much of the coastal plain.

As we begin to move deeper into the winter, this pattern may become more amplified. We will be in a transitioning period over the next two weeks here across New England. This means we you will notice longer spells of colder weather, punctuated with shorter bursts of mild spells.

As oceans begin to cool off from the historic warm levels, cold air from Canada will begin to slowly press south into the eastern part of the U.S. I mentioned this before, but I am closely monitoring this cold press of air. If it indeed makes it down to our latitude, it will interact with the unusually warm Atlatic Ocean temperatures.

This would create a volatile baroclinic zone (zone where cold air temperatures collide with warm ocean temperatures). If this polar jet (cold & dry) phases with a sub-tropical jet (warm + moisture), a series of explosive nor’easters, or possibly one big blizzard could be the end result.

This is especially true for the mid-atlantic area, possibly up into southern New England. Best chance to watch for this to occur would be anytime from mid January to mid March this winter
.

To summarize, as we head deeper into January, watch for a increasingly colder and stormier pattern to unfold across New England. If everything goes according to plan, a period of rough winter weather may grip the region for 6 to 8 weeks.

If this sounds all to familiar, you are correct. It was just last winter, where we were looking at a similar pattern developing. Will this year bring a similar winter snowmaggedon? Statistically speaking, I would say no for us here in Boston.

However, other locations in the mid-atlantic region, could experience a similar type of snow blitz. With that being said, I am following the analog year of 1957-58 and 1977-78 very closely.

In these two different years, Boston did experience warmer thatn normal weather in both November and December, only to be followed by severe winter weather during January through March.

In the latter year, Boston was hit with the Great Blizzard of ’78! There was also a severe blizzard that struck the region in February of 1958!

With all that being said, there’s no denying this outrageously bubble of warm air that’s been parked over New England for the past several months. It’s going to take a monumental effort by Mother Nature to reverse this pattern. Along with anolog years, I rely on long range computer models, to try and determine what’s going to happen this winter.

Computer models have been consistant in depicting a flip in the pattern starting this Jaunuary. Just how severe this is going to turn out, is subject to interpretation and discussion.

Since we are nearing the end of the year, I would be diserving Mother Nature, if I didn’t briefly review the year that was!

Extreme patterns this year, brought historic record snowfall in a very short period of time in much of eastern Massachusetts, including Boston. Along with the snow, February proved to be one of the coldest in recorded history in Boston!

Summertime began on the cold side in June, only to rally late in the year, extending well into September, with fourteen 90 + degree days in Boston.

The year finished with November and December averaging well above normal temperatures, in some cases record warmth, such as this December in Boston.

While all this is happening, it’s been a very dry year, with the Boston area carrying a near 10″ preciptiation deficit as we close out the year. Certainly a year for the record books for Boston!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Much of New England is under a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight and tomorrow. Watch for sunshine for the rest of the afternoon, followed by a deck of high clouds by sunset. It will be seasonable, with highs in the lower 30’s.

Expect dry weather for the first part of tonight. Later tonight, after 2 AM, expect snow to overspread the region from southwest ot northest. The snow will continue until about the early morning commute.

At that point, it will begin to transition to sleet from south to north. I am expecting about 1to 2″ of snow in Boston, ranging to 2″ towards Rt 128. As you head into southern New Hampshire expect 2 to 4.”

If you live in central New Hampshire, north of Manchester, from a line from Lebanon, to Concord, to Portland Maine, you can expect between 4 and 6.” In northern New Hampshire, and much of interior Maine, you can expect between 5 to 10″ of snow.

Any mixed precipitation will turn to rain along coastal regions from Portsmouth, N.H. to Boston and Providence regions. This will happen between 10 AM and 1 PM. Across interior regions, north and west of I495, a period of icing may develop, as temperatures close to the surface may be subborn to rise above 32.

Expect this whole mess to gradually diminish, and end across the region tomorrow night. Watch for icy spots across the interior.

Wednseday will feature partly to mostly cloudy weather, with highs mainly in the 40’s. Similar weather can be expected on Thursday, along with the chance of some showers. The weather should clear in time for New Year’s celebrations across the region, it will turn somewhat colder, with lows in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s.

Friday should feature a mixture of sun and clouds, temperatures should be on the chilly, but not cold, with highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Right now, the beginning of the weekend looks to be dry and on the cold side, with highs in the lower 30’s. Some long range computer models are hinting at some coastal snow on Sunday, otherwise expect dry and cold weather to continue.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating everyone on the patterns heading into January. I will also be on the lookout for our first bonafied winter storm!

In the meantime, the signs of winter are there, but is it mixed signals, or the real deal?

Have a safe & Happy New Year, to all!

See you in 2016!

Pete

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BLAME IT ON THE GRINCH! 12/21/15

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice weekend! The weather finally cooled off a bit to make it feel a bit more seasonable. Saturday turned brisk, and chilly, with highs mainly in the lower 40’s. It was cold Saturday night, but certainly nothing unusual for the date.

Sunday was a still chilly, but with near 100% of the possible sunshine, it certainly felt tolerable come the afternoon. All in all, it was cooler, but temperatures still averaged a bit above normal for the date!

Today is the first day of winter! Actually, the Winter Solstice technically arrives at 11:49 PM, tonight. So our first full day of winter is tomorrow. These are the shortest days of the year. From this point forward, the days will begin to lengthen, solar radiation will begin to increase, as we begin our pilgremage towards spring.

Today may the start of winter, but to absolutely honest with everyone, I’m in a grumpy mood. Of all weeks it has to be warm, this is the worst one!

Perhaps it stems back to when I was a little kid. I vividly remember some big snowstorms right around Christmas time. One of my fondest memories of a kid, was going to get our Christmas tree with my dad, right in the middle of a big snowstorm! It’s something I will remember for the rest of my life! Reading other posts on social media, I know I am not the only one who feels the same!

Putting all of that aside, from the way the weather has been of late, you could say it feels more like the first day of spring, rather than winter. We’re running that far behind schedule.

If you love spring, you may feel an urge to celebrate, and shout out, “it’s over!” “We’re onto spring!” Well, this is not quite how the atmosphere works. While true the days will begin to lengthen, we are far declaring winter over, when it hasn’t even begun!

To make matters more complicated, the seasons seem to be off schedule by a good 4 to 6 weeks. This has a lot to do with latent heating and cooling of our oceans. The oceans, at near record levels warmth as of late, take longer to cool off than the land mass.

This delays winters arrival, especially along the east coast, and here in New England. However, as has been the case in recent years, the warm water earlier in the season, has been the catalyst to fueling explosive nor’easters later in the winter.

If conditions set up right, cold air begins to pool in eastern Canada during the early part of winter. As the season matures, the cold air begins to slowly ooze down into New England.

As this cold air clashes with the abnormally warm ocean off our coast, a significant baroclinic zone develops. If you remember last year, or earlier this year, winter didn’t get going around here until January 24th! This is still a good month from now!

A friend on social media posted a very funny picture of the Heat Miser this past week. If you recall, the “Heat Miser” is the delinquent son of Mother Nature in the animated Christmas story, “The Year Without A Santa Claus.” He was responsible for sending blasts of heat to northern regions, essentially destroying any chances of White Christmas.

Of course, his brother, the “Cold Miser” is the exact opposite, wanting to cover the landscape in a winter wonderland of snow!

Perhaps this is what’s going on here. Certainly, Snow Miser had his way around here last year. All the while, Mother Nature is monitoring the two boys closely.

Mother Nature is all about fairness, and balance. Could this winter be the complete opposite of last year? After last winter record cold and snow, could this winter just feature record warmth, and very little snow? So far, you could make an argument for this to be true.

My winter forecast was released about one month ago, back in November. Over the past couple years, I made revisions at the time of the solstice, after I review more data over the course of the fall.

Last year, I downgraded the original forecast calling for record snows and cold in Boston. After nothing happened, I panicked, and downgraded the winter. We all know how that turned out!

For this reason, I am leaving my original forecast to stand as it is. I placed quite a bit of research into the winter forecast for this year. If it’s wrong, so be it. I will go down in flames along with everyone else. I will learn from my mistakes, and come back smarter next winter.

For the record, my forecast calls for snowfall of between 45 and 65″ this winter in Boston. Average is 44″ at Logan airport, so I am expecting snowfall to average a bit above normal. As of right now, this forecast is not looking good.

Not only has it not snowed, but you can count how many days in one hand, it has managed to reach freezing at night this fall in Boston. Some cities in the mid-atlantic have yet to reach freezing!

I have never seen a fall warmer than this, in my entire life. Yes, October was closer to average temperatures, but the unusually warm weather has come back with a vengeance for November, and now especially December.

In fact, we are on pace for the warmest December in recorded history here in Boston. To top it all off, Mother Nature is going to make a mockery of our weather this Christmas week.

So does this mean I am cancelling winter? The short answer to this question, is no! As I mentioned in my winter forecast, I am still expecting a back ended winter.

What I wasn’t prepared for is the just how extreme the warmth has been. I certainly wasn’t prepared for a warmest December in recorded history! This was due to one of the most powerful El Nino’s on record.

This has flooded the eastern third of the country with unseasonably warm temperatures, straight from the central Pacific Ocean! This has lead many professional and amateur meteorologists to throw the towel in for this winter. many are saying the El Nino is way too strong this year, and will overpower the other factors, preventing us from even having a winter!

Is this possible? Looking at the overall patterns, I would say the answer to this question is, yes! It certainly seems possible. It’s possible that this warm pattern keeps repeating itself, and winter never makes it to the east coast this year.

As I have mentioned before, computer models can continue to keep showing a significant change is coming. In the end, Mother Nature has the last say, and the weather will do, what it wants to do.

If you recall, last winter began in a similar fashion. December was abnormally warm, with very little snow falling until January 24th. I would throw that fact out there, but this year certainly appears to have some significant differences.

First, November teperatures averaged nearly 4 degrees above normal. That in itself is a sign for less snow than average. Second, El Nino is much stronger this year than last. This has kept the Polar Vortex locked up near the North Pole. And third, it is possible that Mother Nature is balancing things out from last year.

These are all valid points to consider. However, after reviewing all of my research, I have decided to stay the course. Here’s is why I am thinking this way.

It’s amazing to me, just how closely the global teleconnections resemble last years patterns. Remember last year, started off similar, with mild temperatures, and very little snow. True this year is warmer, but that could begin to change.

Beginning in January, I am expecting the El Nino to begin to weaken. At the same time, we still have a positive PDO in the Pacific Ocean. This means warmer than normal ocean temperatures are persisiting off the British Columbia coast. Computer models have been insisiting for months now, heights (warmer air) will increase across western Canada and Alaska the deeper we go into winter.

Much like last year, this will pool cold air across eastern Canada, and slowly allow it to sink south into New Engalnd. With the abnormally warm waters off our coast, this will significantly increase the baroclinic zone off our coast (thermal difference between cold air and warm ocean).

Computer models also continue to forecast an active sub tropical jet stream from California, across the southern tier of the country, then up along the east coast, including eastern Massachusetts.

Although not as severe as last winter, I am expecting a blitz of winter weather to hit much of New England sometime in January and lasting into February. If the polar jet (cold) were to merge with the sub tropical jet (moisture) a major blizzard could unfold from D.C. to Boston. That is still a possibility this winter. This is my story, and I’m sticking to it!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. This is actually a very easy forecast this week. Watch for mainly cloudy weather for the rest of today, straight on through Christmas Eve.

Along with the clouds, expect periods of rain and showers from time to time. The big story this week is the record warm weather expected. Watch for temperatures in the 50’s from today, through Wednesday.

However, as a storm tracks to our west, a surge of unseasonably warm air will flood into New England on Christmas Eve. We will likely smash the old record for that day. I am forcasting a high of 68 degrees on Thursday!!

If the sun is able to peek through the clouds for any amount of time, 70 degrees is not out of the question! This could be the warmest Christmas Eve you will ever witness in your life! A cold front will move through late in the day, bringing a period of heavy rain and showers.

This should clear out in time for another unseasonably warm day for Christmas Day. I am expecting a brisk wind, with high temperatures still close to 60!

It should turn slightly cooler come next weekend, with highs mainly back into the 40’s. A slow moving cold front may bring some periods of unsettled weather over the course of the weekend. Nothing serious is expected.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your forecast for the rest of 2015! I will also be discussing when we may see our first snow of the season.

If you are a lover of warm weather in the winter, I would soak up as much as you can right now. If you love the snow, patience is a virtue in a winter such as this.

For us who wanted snow for Christmas, we can keep dreaming! Perhaps it would be a good year to take a walk on the beach on Christmas. How many times do we get a chance to do here in New England?

Thanks for reading!

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas!

Christmas 2015…See You At The Beach! 12/14/15

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice weekend! It certainly did not feel like the season, with unseasonably warm temperatures running wild across the region. Saturday was very warm, with mostly sunny skies, and temperatures near 60.

If you planned on Sunday being just as warm, a sneaky back door cold front dashed those thought out the window, as cooler winds off the ocean kept temperatures mainly in the 40’s.

This was a bust forecast on my part, made from last Monday. At the time of my forecast, I did not anticipate that sneaky cool front slipping throught the area.

Had that cool front not come through, the Boston area may have been flirting with 70 yesterday! This was the case from the New York City area, points south.

There’s no denying it. It has been one of the warmest autumn’s on record! I was walking around the neighborhood on Friday, and still saw several trees fully leaved, still with autumn colors! Boston still has not dipped below freezing so far this December. In some parts of the mid-atlantic region, they still have not even had a frost!

With all that said, I would like to put this into perspective. This warmth is unusual, but not unprecedented. We have had warm seasons in the past! Has this warmth been persistant, yes!

I remember looking at last summer’s weather, and remembering how the winter pattern persisted well into the summer. Yes, it warmed up, but the true summer pattern did not finally break through until August!

In fact, we had no 90 degree days last summer until the middle of July. What once was looking like a cooler than normal summer, actually finished with 14 days of 90 degree heat…which is exactly normal!

Since August, the pattern has been warmer than normal here in New England. In fact, it seems to be getting warmer as we head into the winter months, against the averages.

With all of the recent warm weather, many family and friends have been asking me whether there’s a chance for any snow around Christmas time.

In one of my earliest calls on our White Christmas chances, I’m canceling any chances of a White Christmas this year. This is very unusual. Every year, I try hold out some hope, for at least some type of wintery weather for the holiday. If it doesn’t snow in Boston, it typically does somewhere close by, in most years.

It’s unfortunate. It’s the one time some folks like to see a little snow around for Christmas time. Other than then, most people would not mind if another flake doesn’t fall the rest of the winter!

Not only is snow not in the forecast this Christmas, but it may be one of the warmest on record! Of course, things can change still being 11 days out from Christmas. However, recent patterns have been so stable and locked in, I would say it’s a very good chance of verifying.

It won’t be like this across the whole country. Locations in the far west, will likely continue to receive colder than normal weather, with periods of heavy snowfall, especially in higher terrain.

Long range computer models are forecasting a storm to eject out of the southwest just before Christmas. This storm is likely to intensify as it tracks towards the middle of the country, bringing heavy snow to the northwest side of the track on Christmas Day!

As the storm moves well to our northwest, it will increase a strong southerly flow across much of New England, flooding our region with temperatures well up into the 60’s!

Everything is relative. It was just last year kids were playing outside in short sleeves after Christmas dinner! Many folks, including myself, were questioning whether winter was coming or not. Well, we all know how that turned out!

So here we are again. Another warm December, no winter in sight. El Nino ruling the roost right now. It wasn’t until January 24th of last year when the real winter pattern kicked in.

So does this mean I am forecasting another 110″ of snow this winter. No, my winter forecast never called for that in the first place. Because of the unseasonably warm weather as of late, will I be canceling winter this year? No, I am not doing that either.

Next week, I will be freshening up my thoughts on our upcoming winter. After all, next Monday is the official first day of winter! I will not be changing my original forecast this year. I am going to stick with my original theory. If I am wrong, so be it. I will learn from my mistakes, and make next years better!

I will say this, computer models continue to forecast near average temperatures for much of New England this winter. This is a smoothed average of three months put together.

Say, for example, December and the first part of January are near 5 to 7 degrees above average, the second half of winter may be 5 to 7 degrees below average. The one thing you have to keep in mind about climate data, extremes make the averages!

In addition, computer models are insisiting of above average amounts of precipitation for much of the east coast, including eastern New England. This may not have worked out so much in December, but that only ups the anty for even more extreme events later in the winter.

One more thing. Yesterday, while driving to my nephew’s hockey game in East Boston, I saw a huge flock of Canadian Geese flying due south in classic V formation. These weren’t the geese you see flying around your neighborhood from one location to another. They were flying high, on a long distant trip. Just another sign that I do believe winter is coming this year.

Is it going to be like last year? I don’t belive so. Will there be a period of rough winter weather later on in the season? Yes, this I do believe. Just how rough it will be is the million dollar question.

Had we not have a strong El Nino currently in place, I would be concerned about another severe winter. However, it’s very apparent that the strong El Nino is preventing early winter weather from reaching the east coast.

Most computer models are forecasting a rapid weakening of the El Nino. But I believe there’s more to it than that. Ocean temperatures off the east coast are at near record warm levels. I believe this warm water is like a ticking time bomb. Yes, it’s protecting us now, with latent cooling effect.

Meaning, it takes longer for the oceans to cool off than the land. This means the warm Atlantic, along with the El Nino, is protecting the east coast from winter weather early in the winter.

However, if indeed El Nino weakens as predicted, this could leave the door open for an arctic blast out of Canada into the eastern United States.

Any cold air mass charging south out of Canada, could clash with the very warm waters off the east coast, igniting an east coast blizzard that could bury many areas with a winter’s worth of snow in one storm! we shall see how this works out!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect a cloudy and cool afternoon today, with highs mainly in the 40’s. Watch for rain to move into the area after dark tonight. And it will be all rain across the area. In fact, with the storm moving to our west, expect rising temperatures overnight, with temperatures close to 60 by dawn!

Tuesday will feature some early showers, then drying during the afternoon. It will be on the windy side, with a brisk west wind developing. It will remain mild, with highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s.

Tuesday night will be fair and cool, but certainly not cold for this time of year. Lows wil mainly be in the 30’s. Milder than normal weather will continue on Wednesday, with highs in the 50’s.

As strong cold front will be moving towards New England on Thursday. This means an increase in clouds with rain developing again from west to east. This rain may continue into the night, and end Friday morning. It will be a bit cooler, with highs in the 40’s on Friday.

Latest European computer models are forming another wave of low pressure along the front down the coast Friday night. If this does develop, there is a chance that the cold air catches up with the moisture during Friday night. If this happens, there is a chance that the rain mixes with and changes to a period of wet snow at the last second across eastern Massachusetts.

I am not expecting a big storm, but a small slushy accumulation can not be ruled out. It’s our only chance of any type of snow before Christmas this year.

Any precipitation will end early Saturday. You will notice a colder weekend, especially because it’s been so warm. Expect highs mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s both days.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing my winter forecast for everyone, on the first day of winter! I will also have your latest Christmas week forecast!

Until then, it may be one of those years we see Santa at the beach, and the Easter Bunny in the snow!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

El Nino: What To Expect…12/7/15

Hello, all! Welcome to the first week of September! Oh, what? My apologies…the first week of December! Yes, the weekend weather featured light winds, deep blue skies, and very mild temperatures. I may have over exaggerated the time of year, but you get the picture. It certainly doesn’t feel like December out there!

Despite the benign, mild weather patterns, interesting weather still occurred in many parts of New England Saturday night. A strong temperatures inversion set up.

This meant is was colder at ground level than it was on the summits of the mountains. It was warmer on top of Mt. Washington than it was in the valley locations.

With clear skies, and calm winds, this was ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Meaning, any heat that was produced during the day, escaped up into space at night. Cold dense air then settles close to the ground.

In addition, radiation fog formed, especially across interior locations. This in combination of cold temperatures, produced freezing fog in some areas! The fog, supercooled water droplets froze into ice crystals, and formed a phenominon called hoarfrost.

This frost coated trees, and actually made it look like it had snowed! You would of had to of been up at the crack of dawn, otherwise the sun mixes the air, and it melts rapidly in most cases. However, if the inversion is stubborn, it can persist deeper into the morning, in some deeper valley locations.

I know, I’m reaching for topics to talk about. You know it’s a boring pattern when the most exciting thing to talk about is hoarfrost.

And it has been boring. I had thought by now, El Nino driven storms would of began slamming into the southern California coast, make their way across the southern U.S.,then make the turn up the coast with at the minimum wind swept rainstorms for eastern New England, with maybe some interior snows. This would be a typical El Nino type of a pattern.

But instead, it has been week after week of sunny, mild to even warm weather, sometimes interupted by a coudy day or two. And as of this writing, this could go on for at least another 2 weeks.

So this begs the question, is this thing going to happen, or not? So far, there has been nothing typical about this El Nino. In fact, the pattern so far has resembled more of a La Nina.

I know it’s difficult to envision. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino. Instead of above normal water off the South American coast, it’s colder than normal. When in La Nina, the Pacific northwest western Canada, and Alaska endures below normal temperatures, with well above normal amounts of precipitaion, and heavy snowfall.

Meanwhile, the southeast portion of the U.S., sometimes right up to Boston, is warmer and drier than normal.

So far, all the storms, cold air, and heavy snows have been falling in the Pacific northwest, western Canada, and Alaska!

However, make no mistake about it. This is a top three “super” El Nino!! Certainly the warmest since 1997. When we look back at this winters El Nino, we will say, “El Nino pattern was delayed, but most certainly not denied.” When the winter solstice arrives, I believe this pattern will be the opposite of what is happening now. It should turn warmer and drier up there, and colder & stormier in southern latitudes and up the east coast.

This is why this winter was so difficult to forecast. El Nino began inreasing in intensity way back last summer. This is several months sooner than it typical begins.

If computer models are correct, El Nino is peaking right now, and will begin to rapidly weaken as we head deeper into the winter. In a normal ENSO event (El Nino Southern Oscillation), El Nino begins to show up around Christmas. This is why the Peruvians named it El Nino, or “baby Jesus” born around Christmas time.

El Nino is a complex oceanic phenomenon, which has a direct affect on global weather patterns. El Nino develops when trade winds slacken, or even reverse there normal direction.

This allows warm water which typically pools in deeper waters of the Pacific to slosh east, towards the South American coast. This abnormally warm water alters normal jet stream patterns, bringing a variety of hazardous weather not only here in the U.S., but to many other locations around the globe.

To make matters more complex, there are never two El Nino’s that are exactly alike. Weaker, central based El Nino’s typically bring New England cold & snowy winters (last year).

Strong El Nino’s (this year), with warmer water pushed up against the South American coast, energizes the sub tropical jet stream, typically brings New England warm and wet winters.

This not only floods the U.S. with warm temperatures, but also brings heavy amounts of precipitation to California, and southern tier of the U.S.

As mentioned earlier, this will be a case of delayed but not denied. I believe when the winter solstice arrives, our true El Nino patterns will emerge. This pattern evolves from certain areas of low and high pressure centers, which evolve as the seasonal shift commences.

Computer models have been very insistent on above average amounts of precipitation slamming central and southern California this winter.

For my cousin who lives in California, I would say to prepare yourself for a stretch of severe weather beginning sometime in January.

This period of severe weather will include a parade of severe storms which will result in flash flooding, mudslides, and a unprecedented accumulation of snowfall in higher elevations.

Folks may say, Pete, computer models are forecasting El Nino to rapidly weaken come winter. This may be true, however, I believe because El Nino is so strong this year, there will be a significant lag effect, with El Nino like patterns persisting throughout the winter.

Should El Nino not deliver this winter, the consequences could be catastrophic for California. Most of the state is under extreme drought conditions. This is the absolutely worse level you can be in.

As mentioned, computer models are already forecasting a reversal from El Nino, rapidly transitioning to a La Nina come this summer. La Nina’s are associated with dryer than normal weather patterns, especially in southern California.

What about for us, here in New England? Well, so far, El Nino is most definitely protecting our region from any semblence of winter weather.

As has been the case in other strong El Nino years, unusual stories and photos of flowers blooming again, trees budding, snowless ski trails, and grass coming back to life are showing up in social media outlets.

Right now, the polar jet (cold) is no where to be seen, and the sub tropical jet (warm) is meandering well south of us. This has left us in a region of “no mans land.” Meaning, mild weather, and no storms for days on end.

In fact, this pattern could persist until the end of the year. Meaning are chances for a White Christmas are looking bleak at this point.

Let’s not forget, the patterns this year, are very similar to last year. We had a snowless December, and only had 2.7″ of snow all the way up until January 24th! So things can change quickly!

As I mentioned in my winter forecast, there are different types of El Nino’s. The stronger and more persistant the El Nino, the less snow we receive. Right now, this is the case for much of New England.

The big wild card for us, is whether this is going to weaken in time to bring us some winter weather this year. According to my winter forecast, and long range computer models, the answer is yes.

After studying and researching many areas, I do believe the El Nino will begin to weaken during January. If it happens in time, we may enter a period of significant winter weather events.

Unlike last year, I see a much shorter period where we can receive our snow. However, if it aligns up at just the right time, meaning right in the heart of winter, there may be a frantic period of heavy snowfalls.

If the polar jet were to phase with the energized sub tropical jet, a blizzard could still be on the table for the east coast in early March.

If the El Nino maintains its strength, deeper into the winter, then all bets are off. The two jet streams will remain seperate, and the sub tropical (warm) jet is dominant, leaving us with a mild, snowless winter. When that happens, winter tends to show up when spring begins, then nobody is happy.

Right now, I have no plans on changing my original winter forecast. Only bad things have occurred when I go against my original thinking. If it’s wrong, I will learn my mistakes, and try to be better next time.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 9 out of 10! Look for a mainly sunny afternoon, with high temperatures near 60! Expect clouds to be on the increase tonight. It will be milder than recent nights, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Tuesday will be a mainly cloudy, with a raw wind off the ocean. If you live down the Cape, you may encounter a few showers. Because they will be closer to a ocean storm, it will be quite windy down there, with winds up to 35 m.ph. possible. It will be cooler, with highs generally in the 40’s.

Expect similar temperatures on Wednesday, with skies clearing during the afternoon. Wednesday night will feature clear weather, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s regionwide.

Watch for mainly cloudy weather on Thursday, with the chance of a few rain showers. It will be on the mild side, with highs near 50.

Right now, expect fair weather on Friday, with highsa in the lower 50’s once again.

There could be a few more showers on Saturday, but no wash out is anticipated. Temperatures will still make it into the 50’s.

If that system clears out, the big news may come on Sunday. At this point, I am expecting sunny and very warm temperatures for this time of year. In fact, temperaures may be close to 20 degrees above normal, with highs near 64 degrees!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know if there are any chances for snow. I will also let you know what our chances are for a White Christmas. In the meantime, take advantage of the warm weather…get those Christmas lights up now!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

We’re On To December…11/30/15

Where is the time going? Thanksgiving has come and gone, and now Christmas is next! I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!

The weather was certainly something to behold. It felt nothing like the season, with Thanksgiving warming up into the mid to upper 50’s, and Black Friday even warmer, with many towns reporting temperatures between 60 and 65 degrees!

Several friends and relatives asked me if this was abnormal. The short answer to this question was, yes! Overall, this has been a very warm November.

Despite the chill the last couple days of the month, this November will most certainly finish as one of the top ten warmest in recorded history.

I spent my Thanksgiving at my sister’s house up in the seacoast region of New Hampshire. This has been a family tradition over the past 8 years or so.

I have observed everything from warm Thanksgiving days such is this past one, to very cold temperatures in the 20’s a couple years ago, to 7″ of wet snow on the ground like last year.

The moral of the story, is that Thanksgiving day can bring a variety of different weather conditions, ranging from springlike, to winterlike, to something in between. So yes, the weather was abnormally mild this time around, but nothing too out of what we can expect for this holiday.

It wasn’t just Thanksgiving day. Typically, when November is colder than normal, the holiday itself is likely to be more wintery than not.

This November, it has averaged nearly 5 degrees above normal for the month. In addition, November has also been drier than normal. This continues our stretch of recent November’s that have featured less precipitation than normal, and more sunshine than normal.

November is typically our wettest and cloudiest month in Boston. Because of the abnormally warm temperatures, Boston recorded no snowfall this month.

So here we are, staring down the barrel of another December. Snow lovers are getting anxious for the snow to start to fly. Others, not wanting to push the season, watched in silence, not wanting to jinx our recent stretch of tranquil weather.

Watching the Patriots game last night in Denver reminded folks that winter is here. Seeing the snow falling, my sweet niece said she missed the snow, and asked me when I thought Boston may see its first snow?

As mentioned above, it has been an exceptionally tranquil stretch of weather. After last winters barrage of winter storms in late January and much of February, the weather since then has been, well, boring.

After a very cold start to the year, recent abnormally warm weather over the past several months, have left some wondering, whether we’re going to have a winter this year?

Last week, I published my winter forecast for the upcoming winter this year. As I mentioned, this is going to be another back ended winter for Boston. This means we can expect the worst of our winter to come in after Christmas this year, and likely linger well into March. This sounds eerily familiar to last year.

Yes, in fact, other than the ongoing strong El Nino, the ocean temperatures and upper level patterns do look similar to last year. Does this mean we are in for another 110″ of snow, or more? The short answer to this question is, I don’t believe so.

The difference this year is that El Nino is much stronger. This helped in delivering a much warmer than normal November, and autumn, across much of New England.

Based on statistics, this in itself would bring a warmer than normal winter, with below average snowfall to Boston.

However, abnormally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures off the British Columbia coast, a shifting El Nino, and long range computer model forecasts, continue to show a very different second half of the winter around here.

Many friends have pointed out to me, that they feel as though there has been a seasonal shif as of late. Fall appears to have exetended longer into autumn, winter into spring, spring into summer, and summer into fall.

It appears to be a 4 to 6 week shift. I believe this has a lot to do with latent heating and cooling. The oceans have been taking longer to cool off than the land, during the fall, and longer to heat up compared to land, during the spring.

As the oceans take longer to cool off, cold weather continues to slowly build in Canada. As the cold air slowly presses into New England, it creates a baroclinic zone off our coast (zone where cold air meets the warm ocean).

This is where upper level atmospheric spin (energy is atmosphere), clashes with warm water off our coastline, and creates explosive nor’easters. If there is enough cold air banked over New England, heavy snowfalls occur.

This is exactly what happened last year. As the winter season matured, slowly evolving blocking patterns set up int the upper atmosphere. This blocking pattern set up in a way to bombard the Boston area with unprecedented snowfall.

Could this happen again this year? It’s possible, but with the warm temperature departures from this fall, and an ongoing strong El Nino, should help lessen the worry of record snows this winter.

Despite the above average departures in November this year, I am still expecting near, to perhaps a bit above average snow this year in Boston.

I believe this will happen because El Nino is expected to rapidly weaken as we head towards the winter solstice. In addition, with the warm water still present off the British Columbia coast, this will promote a blocking ridge of high pressure in western Canada.

If the El Nino weakens as expected, and the water remains warm off British Columbia, a much colder pattern should develop across eastern U.S. during January.

If the sub tropical jet continues to be active, it could phase with the polar jet at times, to produce a couple good sized nor’easters.

As we bottom out in the seasonal shift, I still believe there is the chance for a east coast blizzard, especially during the beginning of March.

The worst of these storms should be centered across the mid-atlantic this winter, relative to averages. Last winter it was Boston to New York. This winter it may focus more on Washington D.C., Maryland and Philadelphia regions.

Tomorrow is the first day of December. It’s also the first day of meteorological winter. I am expecting another slow start to winter this year.

Do not expect any snow here in Boston at least through the middle of December. I am also expecting temperatures to be milder than average, with a warmer first half than the second half. There will be times of colder weather, but nothing severe.

As we head to the winter solstice on December, 22nd, the pattern may become more volatile with greater chances of snowfall. This is why I believe much of interior New England has a pretty good chance of a White Christmas this year! Coastal regions are a bit iffy, and storms may be more rain than snow.

Boston averages about 8″ of snow in December. I am expecting some snow this year in Boston, unlike last year when no snow fell. However, overall, I still believe snow will be below average in Boston this December.

Precipitation will be on the up tick, with near to slightly above average precipitation to finish off the year. Despite some late cold shots, December should finish about 2 degrees above average.

Many friends I have in Florida have been inquiring about what kind of winter they can expect this winter. As I mentioned earlier, there is a ongoing strong El Nino.

This typically means wetter and cooler patterns during winter. I understand Florida has been hotter and drier for for what seems like forever now. I do expect this to change. Similar to New England, there has been a delay in the change of season.

Once the winter solstice arrives, I believe the sub tropical jet will surpress south into the state. When this happens sometime around Christmas, you can expect cooler and wetter weather to arrive, and continue through February of next year.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect mainly cloudy weather for the rest of your Monday. It will be on the cold side, with highs only near 40. Tonight should continue to be on the dry side, with lows in the 30’s.

Expect thickening clouds for your Tuesday. Watch for rain showers to overspread the region during the afternoon and continue into the night. It wil be raw, with highs in the 40’s.

Wednesday will feature a dry start, but watch for more rain to develop and continue into the night. It will be cool and damp, with highs mainly in the 40’s to possibly near 50.

For Thursday and Friday, expect a lot of instability, with some early sun, and building afternoon cumulus clouds. There may be some widely scattered showers of rain. In some places, it may be cold enough for a few snow showers.

Expect dry and more tranquil weather to return for this upcoming weekend. It will be chilly on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the lower 40’s. Temperatures should moderate over the weekend, with highs in the upper 40’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be examining the pattern more closely, and monitoring when we may expect a change to more wintery weather.

I will also be talking about El Nino, and the implications it may have for California this winter. In the meantime, we might be on to December, but someone please remind Mother Nature she’s still in November!

Thanks for reading!

Pete