WINTER 2015-16: MORE MILD…BUT STILL WILD!

Good afternoon! I hope everyone had a nice weekend! After another mild day on Friday, things chilled off a bit this weekeend, but nothing extreme for this time of the year.

Saturday featured a mix of sun and clouds, with temperatures near 50. Sunday promised to warmer, but a pesky coastal low actually developed light rain along the coast during the afternoon. It wasn’t a big storm or anything, just a reminder that this is November.

With the rainfall, it also turned quite raw across the area. Quite a change from the abnormally warm temperatures we’ve been enjoying so far this November!

Still it could always be worse for this time of year. Folks in the midwest endured through one of their biggest November snowfalls on record this past weekend. Chicago got plastered with 11″of heavy wet snow, making this their second biggest November snowstorms on record!

It was also just one year ago today, that we went through a similar weather event right here in New England. I remember the stress of writing my winter forecast for last year, as well as forecasting a pre Thanksgiving nor’easter about to pummell the area.

As it turned out, Boston was spared heavy accumulations from that storm. However, you didn’t have to travel too far to the west & north of the city to start running into significant accumulations.

I remember driving up to my sister Pam’s house in coastal New Hampshire, and entering right into a winter wonderland! She received about 7″ of wet snow at her house, but many areas just inland from her easily topped a foot. It really felt more like Christmas, rather than Thanksgiving!

What about this year? Well, I am happy to report that there will be absolutely no travel issues heading over to Grandma’s house this Thanksgiving! I will have all the details in my weekly forecast at the end of my post.

Looking back, it was interesting to note how we had several nor’easter type storms last November. In fact, November was much colder and snowier last year as a whole here in New England.

Although December turned rainy and warm, the pattern in November was most certainly an omen for things to come later in the season. I like to use the phrase, “what happens in November, the winter will remmember.”

Some say it for December, but I truly believe November is the month which holds the most clues for the upcoming winter here in Boston.

I have to admit, I loved all the chatter this past summer talking with folks about last winter! I also loved when they asked me questions about why it was so severe, and what my thoughts were on the upcoming winter.

It made for some great conversation, and brought back some painful memories, some good, and some not so good. Last winter will be talked about for years to come by Bostonians. We will look back to last winter, as we did with the famed Blizzard of ’78.

What about this winter? What kind of winter should we expect this year? If you recall last year, I could see a rough winter was ahead from way back in the summer! This year, there are many more conflicting signals!

It’s been an interesting fall to say the least. September was one of the warmest on record. It cooled off back to near normal in October, only to turn much warmer than normal for much of November. All the while, we are continuing our abnormally dry weather patterns, stemming back to last year.

While all of this was happening, I’ve been observing. In fact, I begin my journey of trying to forecast the upcoming winter starting way back in July!

It’s a bit of a strange concept in weather, but to be able to forecast the future, you must understand & study the past. This means analyzing what the weather did in years past (analog years) and also having a good memory on what has happened in recent events.

To formulate my forecast, I study and analyze 17 different global factors to come up with a educated theory as to what I think will happen.

Among some of the scientific signals I study are:
*El Nino (warmer than normal ocean in southern Pacific ocean)
*La Nina (colder than normal water in southern Pacific)
*Overall temperature profile (warm pools and cold pools) in Pacific and Atlantic Oceans
*Solar cycles
*Long range computer models
*Where blocking patterns may set up during the heart of winter
*Studying analog years (matching this year with a similar year in the past year)

Some of the signs I look for from Mother Nature is as follows:
*Autumn Siberian and Canadian snowfall
*Temperature departures in November
*Number of days with fog, Frosts and freezes during autumn (the thicker the fog, the deeper the snowpack)
*Position of troughs (cold & stormy weather) for the last 2 weeks in November
*Squirrel activity
*Acorn production

After compiling all of these factors, I have come to some conclusions for this winter. First, I don’t believe we are in for quite as severe winter as we had last year.

Believe it or not, the factors which caused last winter are still pretty much in place from last year. However, there are some subtle differences which will help prevent us from another repeat of snowmaggedon.

There are two camps of thought. One camp believes El Nino is so powerful this year, that it will overwhelm the pattern with warm air, making storms more rain than snow.

The other camp believes the El Nino has peaked, and is shifting more towards the cental Pacific. This would result in a stronger polar jet stream, and when mixed with the sub tropical jet will deliver another catastrophic winter form Boston down to Washinton D.C.

After reviewing all my data, I do believe that this is not your typical El Nino going on here. Other than the El Nino being stronger, global Sea surface temperatures are very similar to last winter. A typical strong El Nino would mean a very warm winter with below average snowfall for Boston and much of New England.

However, from what I am seeing, I do believe the global factors from last year continue to influence our weather for this winter. The fact of the matter is, meteorologists have never seen sea surface temperature profile such as this year, so there’s no other year to compare it to! So nobody knows for sure what’s going to happen this winter!

As I mentioned earlier, there are many conflicting signals. First and foremost, the abnormally warm and dry November would argue for below average snowfall in Boston this winter.

The statistics are alarming for us snow lovers out there! With temperature departures of greater than 4 degrees in November, I believe there has been only 3 winters that featured near or slightly above normal snowfall in Boston. The rest were all below normal, and in many cases by quite a bit!

Furthermore, we have had less foggy days this fall than last. I remember the fog so thick last year, visibility was near zero at times. Remember how deep the snow was?

We have also have had less frost than last year. This is a no brainer considering how warm the autumn has been.

However, there are many other signals that point to a different scenerio. Sea surface temperatures continue to feature above normal readings off the British Columbia coast. This would promote a blocking ridge of high pressure in that location (much like last year). This would allow cold air to seep down into New England from Quebec, Canada.

Siberian snowfall this autumn has been a bit less than last year, but still was significant enough to rank it in the top 5 in recent years. Studies done by Judah Cohen have shown a direct link of Siberian snowfall to heavy snowfall in New England the following winter.

Next, we are running a serious precipitation deficit here in eastern Massachusetts. In fact, it is now close to 10″ for the year. I believe a stormy winter is on the way, with quite a bit of moisture. If the polar jet (cold) were to maintain its strength, it could phase with the El Nino sub-tropical jet (moisture), it could result in several heavy snowfalls, especially later in the season.

What about some natural signs? As many already know, the acorn crop this year was astounding! Many said they have never seen so many acorns in their life! Of course, this is met with skepticism in the science community. But for me, I think there’s some truth to it. I believe this is Mother Nature’s way of providing food for animals, to help make it hrough a long winter.

With ocean temperatures being one of our biggest teleconnection for the weather, I believe the El Nino is the biggest wildcard to watch over the next month or two. If it continues weaken, and shift west, towards the central Pacific, it would allow colder air to seep down the eastern part of the country.

Add to that a active sub-tropical jet stream, and that could mean another snowy season. If El Nino maintains its strength, and does not shift west, it would certainly mean a warmer winter with much less snow for Boston.

So what do I think? Putting all these factors together, my gut is telling me we can expect a milder first half of the winter, much like last winter.

Most computer models are forecasting a rapid decline in El Nino starting in January. This could mean a very different second half of the winter around here. This, along with the above average ocean temperatures off the British Columbia coast, is why I believe El Nino will not be able to fully take control this winter.

I believe December will be a very changeable month, with no set pattern settling in. We will have times of warm and cold weather, along with the threat of a significant winter storm or two. One at the beginning of the month, then the other around Christmas.

January is when the winter pattern will begin to make its presence felt. It will begin to turn colder & stormy, especially during the second half January, as the El Nino weakens. February could turn into another wild month. Although not as cold as last year, we could have a very active month, with lots of heavy rain and snowstorms. The big show could be in March this year. I believe factors will come together to possibly bring us blizzard at the beginning of the month.

You would think with all these storms predicted, Boston may end up with as much snow as last year. I don’t believe that this will be the case. It will be a warmer winter this year, and many of these storms will bring mixed precipitation and snow changing to rain in the city, down towards the Cape.

With that being said, most of our snow will accumulate in the second half of January, February and early March of next year. For all these reasons, I am going to go against the warm November theory this year, and go for between 45 and 65″ of snow in Boston this winter.

Snowfall will not pile up one on top of the other this winter. We will have periods of milder weather when snow will melt off in between storms.

Average snowfall at Logan airport is 44.” So I am expecting a season of a bit above average. This is roughly half of what fell last year, but this year will feature many more storms with high water content in them. Meaning heavy wet snow, or water logged snow from the snow turning to rain. So the clean up and hardship will still be considerable when all is said and done.

If you live north and west of Boston, I am expecting less moisture, but it will be colder, so accumulations may be closer to average, say between 50 and 70.” This holds true up the New Hampshire and Maine coast. Less snow than last year, but still close to average, which is between 60 and 70″ of snow in most places.

If you live down towards the Cape, you can expect less snow than last year, partly due to less of a presence of arctic air. Warm ocean temperatures will turn snow to rain for many of the storms. However, you too should brace for a major storm later in the winter.

Once again, eastern New England will be in the fire hose of precipitation this year. With that being said, I believe there will be enough precipitation to supply ski areas with plenty of snow this winter, especially later in the season. Unlike last couple of years, there may be a one or two nuclear melt downs, which would make this season not as consistant as the past few.

I also wanted to point out, for our friends in the mid-atlantic region, from D.C. to New York, this will be a very active winter, with above average precipitation. If the polar jet can inject enough cold air into these storms, a very snowy scenerio could be in the cards for you, especially for February and early March.

Now for your weekly autumn Thanksgiving forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10! I am expecting a very quiet week of weather this week. Perfect for traveling!

For today and tomorrow, expect sunny and chilly weather, with highs in the lower 40’s and lows in the 20’s. Wednesday will feature fair skies, and somewhat milder temperatures, with highs near 50.

Wednesday night will be fair and on the chilly side, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. After a chilly start, Thankgiving afternoon may feature mostly cloudy weather, but temperatures will be milder, with highs in the mid 50’s.

Black Friday will turn sunny and very mild, with highs near 60! A cold front will be approaching New England on Saturday, so we should expect some showers, but a washout is not anticipated.

It should clear out and turn cooler on Sunday, with highs in the 40’s. It might turn stormy and colder for the beginning of December, but I will update on this potential if conditions warrant this weekend.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review the months weather for November, and preview what we can expect for December. I will also be updating everyone on the status of El Nino.

If I have time, I may try to make a brief winter outlook for friends in Florida and California. In the meantime, it’s that time of year again, if my forecast does not work out, you get two turkey’s for the price of one!

***Have a safe & happy Thanksgiving, everyone!***

Thanks for reading,

*Feel free to ask any questions, or comment on my forecast!*

Pete

Pre-Winter Thoughts…11/16/15

Hello, all! For the first time this month, Boston actually experienced a below average day. Saturday featured strong northwest winds, with temperatures holding in the 40’s. These winds made the wind chill temperatures feel like close to freezing!

Sunday felt much more tolerable, and with temperaures about 10 degres warmer than Saturday, it felt like a day at the beach!

After such tragic events in Paris on Friday, the weekend finished on a more optimistic note. First, Mother Nature treated us to what could of been the sunset of the year across much of New England last evening. Then, with a unprobable victory from the Patriots last evening against the New York Giants!

If anything, it shows us that even when we endure our toughest days, better ones are right around the corner. So try not to get too down about stuff, you never know what tomorrow will bring!

Incredibly, we are now less than two weeks away from Thanksgiving, and only one week away from my official winter forecast! Because we are now just a week away from the forecast, I thought it might be a good idea to discuss my thoughts on the upcoming winter in a bit more detail today. Keep in mind, nothing is official today, just preliminary.

Well, it has certainly been a whirlwind since I began this journey back in July! After many hours of reading technical discussions, studying weather maps from around the globe, and paying careful attention to my signs from Mother Nature, I think I have a good idea on what we can expect this winter here in the Boston area.

With that being said, there are still several major issues that need to be resolved before next Monday. Unfortunately, there are still several major signs which are conflicting with each other. I suppose this is how it’s going to be from now on. I can remember saying the same things for the past several years now.

With the advancement in computer models, we can now forecast seasonal outlooks, better than we ever have before. However, just when you think you have all the answers, Mother Nature changes the questions! She’s always one step ahead of us, no matter what we do.

The earth, climate, and sun, are just too complex to know all the answers, all the time. As soon as computer models update their information, the weather is already changing.

For instance, just yesterday, many computer models were in agreement of a major large scale pattern change starting this weekend, and heading into Thanksgiving week.

They were consistantly showing winter like cold, along with the threat of several wintery type storm systems. Of course, this would of had major implications. Not only for Thanksgiving travel, but also for our upcoming winter.

This morning, when I went to check the status of winter’s return, it was gone! Poof! Just like that. The computer models are now showing something completely different.

Today, computer models dump all the cold air and snowstorms out west, keeping most of the east coast, including New England, much milder, also without much precipitation!

Actually, this is more in line with climatology around here. A change to such a wintery pattern this time of the year is not unprecedented, but would of been quite the surprise, especially with the kind of November we have been having up to this point.

Such a dramatic shift in the pattern could of had dire consequences for snow weary Bostonians. I follow the patterns very carefully in November, to help me determine what may follow for the upcoming winter.

What I saw yesterday was alarming, for sure. Computer models set up an anomolous pattern, with high latitude blocking to our north, and full fledged nor’easters intensifying off our coast.

This would of lead to a very early start to winter, with strong gales, heavy precipitation of rain, and eventually snow. These type of patterns most certainly do repeat themselves later on in the winter, with even greater ferocity.

Now that the computer models have backed off from this scenerio, this lines up more as to what I’m thinking for this winter. There’s now no denying it. With November temperatures being so much above average, a milder winter is on the way for Boston this year.

Yes, I have read many other forecasts claiming another severe winter is on the way, possibly one even worse than last year. This may be true, for some parts of the country, but I don’t believe so, for us here in Boston.

I have been studying the weather my whole life here in Boston, and I can tell you one thing for sure, Boston beats to its own drum, compared to other parts of the country.

There have been many years when a lackluster, warm winter was forecasted for Boston, only to have it turn into quite a severe winter, with blizzards and bitter cold.

On the other hand, be cautious of forecasting of a severe winter coming to Boston. So far, the temperature & precipitation departures for November, are saying, sorry…not this year!

After reviewing quite a bit of data, it’s quite possible, snow starved areas of the mid-Atlantic region, including Washington D.C. may indeed have a big winter.

Their teleconnections are different down there, compared to Boston. Above average snow may also include New York City this year.

If the computer models happen to revert back to what I saw this past weekend, then we may need to talk, here in Boston. It’s that fine of a line here. You have to pick up on subtle clues from Mother Nature very carefully.

Despite the very warm departures, a sudden shift to wintery weather the second half of November, could prove a winter of high variabilty, one that could include some heavy snowfall.

Right now, I am not seeing this. In fact, it looks like winter may get off to another very slow start here in Boston this year, with true winter cold weather holding off until after the New Year. Therefafter, winter may pick up steam heading into February and March.

At this point, I am actually expecting most of our snow to fall in March this winter! I believe it will take this long until the El Nino weakens enough to allow enough cold air to mix with the moisture to produce snowfall around here. And by that time, spring will be right around the corner, so it shouldn’t be too bad!

Of course, this is all still very preliminary! As I mentioned above, this is very tricky business. A small shift can make all the difference in the world, especially this time of the year.

In my world, this is crunch time! I weigh much of my winter forecast based on the weather patterns of the last two weeks of November. So I reserve the right to alter this preliminary forecast come next week. Thank you for your understanding!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I am rating this week a 7 out of 10. Expect another Indian Summer like afternoon, with deep blue skies, light winds, and temperatures near 60!

A dry back door cold front will slip through the area tonight. This will introduce a north wind, and colder temperatures. In fact, many areas may be below freezing when you wake up tomorrow morning!

Expect similar weather for both tomorrow and Wednesday, with highs mainly in the 40’s and lows in the 20’sand low 30’s tomorrow night.

Thursday will feature somewhat milder weather, along with increasing and thickening clouds during the day. Watch for a band of rain to move through the area during the night. It will turn warmer, with low temperatures mainly in the 50’s.

After some early showers early Friday, it should become sunny, and be on the mild side once again, with highs in the upper 50’s. Temperatures may cool back down into 40’s again this weekend, under mainly dry conditions.

What once was looking like a very wintery Thanksgiving week, is now not looking that bad after all, with milder weather pushing back into New England.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be publishing my official 2015-16 winter forecast! This will be a detailed post, covering all of the topics that we have been discussing, as well as my final snowfall predictions!

I will also have your important Thanksgiving holiday travel forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the milder weather we have now. Eventually, we will be dealing with winter weather in one form or another!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Warm November…Mild Winter? 11/9/15

Hello! I hope everyone had a great weekend! For November standards, the weather wasn’t too bad! Saturday featured quite a bit of cloudiness, but temperatures were quite mild, with highs in the upper 60’s.

Sunday was a spectacular fall day, with near 100% of the possible sunshine and light winds. It was cooler, but only back to “average.”

It was anything but average for the first week in November! In fact, Boston tied several records for unseasonably warm weather. With temperatures in the high 60’s and 70’s all week, it was no surprise that we tied for warmest first week of on record.

We also tied a record high temperature of 73 degrees on Friday, and a record high minimum temperature of 62 degrees on Saturday morning!

The highest temperature of the whole week was recorded on Thursday, when we reached 76 degrees in Boston! However, this too was not a record. The record for that day was 79 degrees. The warmest it has ever been in Boston during November was 82 degrees.

With all of this warm weather, this has left Boston a whopping 11.2 degrees above average so far for the month!

Because November is such a pivotal month in determining what kind of winter we’re going to have, there is a lot of information I need to dicuss with everyone today!

After getting off to such a warm start to the month, many friends were sending me reports, articles, statistical information from credible sources, regarding how warm November’s always lead to less snow than average during the preceding winter.

Is this information true? The short answer to this question, yes! However, the devil is in the details as they say!

Some people are throwing out words like “never” and “can’t happen” if November is too warm. Who would of thought that Boston would receive 94.4 inches of snow in 28 days last winter? On their way to a record smashing 110.8″ for the season last year. All falling in about 7 weeks!

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a firm believer in monitoring the temperature departures in November, to help me forecast how much snow is going to fall during the winter. This is one of Mother Nature’s secret natural signals she gives us to formulate a forecast.

As far as I know, this phenominon is especially true for Boston’s Logan airport, and surrounding areas. I’m sure there are different signals for other parts of the world, but for Boston, this is a biggie. There are no answers why. One of Mother Nature’s mysteries that can’t be explained.

Is it true 100% of the time? No, looking back in record keeping, November 1963, 1975, and 1977 all had warmer than normal November’s, and all three had greater than average amounts of snow the following winter.

In fact, February 1978, Boston received its most severe blizzard in recorded history, leading to a winter season which recorded 85″ of snow!

This is why I had mentioned above, that the devil is in the details in determining whether this connection is always true. And more importantly, is it true for us this year?

As I mentioned above, Boston is absurdly warmer than average for November, so far. I use a little formula to calculate the snowfall with how much of a departure the temperatures are from normal.

If temperatures average normal to plus 2 degrees, there is no deductions. Winter snowfall can go either way, from above average, to average, to a bit below.

However, each degree above 2, you can deduct 10″ of snow, on average, off of our normal annual snowfall. So if Logan airport averages 45″ of snow, and November ends up 3 degrees above average, I deduct 10″ off the annual average, bringing it down down to 35.”

If it’s +4 degrees, deduct another 10,” now down to 25.” If November temperatures are even warmer of +5 degrees or greater, a dud winter is most always the end result, with only between 10 and 15″ falling. I adjust the forecast with my other 17 natural signs to come up with a final range of expected snowfall.

How are we doing this November, so far? As mentioned above, Boston is currently 11.2 degrees above average!!

Conversely, when temperatures are colder than average in November, Boston typically gets barraged with massive amounts of snow. This is especially true when temperatures come in at average, or minus 2 degrees below average. Last year, for example, November was minus 2.5 degrees below average…look what happened!

Looking at some long range computer models this morning, I can say with fair confidence, there is very little chance we erace that massive positive departure. Earlier, computer models were hinting at a significant large scale pattern change around November 20th.

Today, computer models are either delaying this, or have backed way off the intensity of these cold shots and storms.

Yes, it’s going to be “cooler” but not way below average. This may bring the departure down somewhat, but I highly doubt it gets below +4 degrees by the end of the month.

This is the complete opposite of last year. Last November, computer models were always insisting warmer weather to overwhelm New England.

These “phantom” warm spells never materialized, as colder temperatures kept pinching off any warm ups moving into New England from the southwest.

I will still have to monitor this situation very carefully. Computer models have been flip flopping with the pattern, after November 20th. One model run shows a fairly benign, tranquil pattern.

Check back 6 hours later, and the next model run shows a monster east coast storm, with heavy precipitation, strong winds, and wet snow.

Should we stick a fork in winter this year? Well, if you go by statistics and probabilities alone, I would say the chances of more snow than average this year are currently looking very low. However, there is always that anomolous year!

I mentioned those other years earlier that were snowier than average, but those November temperatures were nothing like the warmth we’re experiencing this year. They were within the range of average to +2 degrees above.

So far, this year resembles November’s such as 1972, 1994, 2006, 2011. These years featured November temperatures of at least +4 degrees or greater above average. These winters were some of our warmest, and least snowiest on record!

And then there was the winter of 2003-04. This year also featured a very warm November. However, this did not stop a brutal stretch of winter weather that year. A 2 day weekend nor’easter, on December 5th and 6th, battered eastern Massachusetts with between 24 and 38″ of snow!

Then, a brutally cold, but dry January followed. After that, we had one more moderate snowfall in March of that year, and that was it. Boston ended up with a bit below normal snow that year, but winter certainly left its mark! The point is, even if we don’t get as much snow as we normally do, we can still have some serious winter weather.

Throwing out statistics and probabilities, there is always that chance, that this year could be different. Long range computer models continue to forecast El Nino suddenly crashing after December.

If this happens, colder air could flow into New England January through March. If its cold enough, we could get a period of rough winter weather. This is especially true if the sub tropical jet stream remains active. If this jet stream phases with the polar jet, that’s when we can have a blockbuster storm hit New England sometime in February or March.

As I have mentioned before, it’s difficult enough predicting the weather a few days out, never mind for a whole winter! With all the different possibilities on the table, this winter looks to be especially challenging to forecast.

With all that being said, I am collecting all my data, reviewing all my signs from Mother Nature, and will have my official winter forecast for New England, published two weeks from today, on November 23rd!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Look for another spectacular November day, with deep blue skies, and light winds. Temperatures will warm to the upper 50’s to near 60. Watch for clouds to slowly increase overnight, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Tuesday will feature lowering and thickening clouds. Watch for our first rain of the month to move into the area from south to north during the late afternoon. We desperately need the rain, as deficits have climbed to between 8 and 10″ for the year. It will be cool, but not cold, with highs in the upper 50’s.

Watch for winds to freshen out of the northeast tomorrow night and into Wednesday, with rain, some falling heavy at times. It will be cooler, with highs only in the upper 40’s on Wednesday. Look for the rain and wind to diminish during Wednesday afternoon. Skies will clear out, but it won’t turn terribly cold Wednesday night, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

Thursday should start off with some sun, but another fast moving storm may bring another round of rain fro late morning into the afternoon.

Friday looks to feature more sun, with a brisk wind, and highs in the upper 50’s to near 60. Right now, the weekend looks to be on the dry side, with a brisk wind. Saturday should feature temperatures in the 50’s with a mixture of sun and clouds.

It will turn somewhat colder Sunday, with partly sunny weather, and highs only near 50, and just a chance of a quick shower. This is still only about average, and indications are it warms right back up to above normal for much of next week as well.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to hone in on my winter forecast. I will be monitoring the latest signals, and give you a more in depth discussion as to what my thoughts are for the upcoming winter.

In the meantime, the winter may look like a mild winter at this point, but nothing’s official until two weeks from today!

*****Happy Veteran’s Day to all our men & women who sacrificed their lives to bring us our freedom!*****

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Indian Summer…PART TWO! 11/2/15

Hi Folks! Welcome to November! Where has the time gone? I hope everyone had a great weekend! As far as the weather goes, it was fairly typical for this time of the year.

After a couple mild days last week, Friday certainly chilled off, turning downright cold Friday night and early Saturday morning, with many communities falling into the 20’s and very low 30’s.

After a frosty start, temperatures on Halloween moderated somewhat during the afternoon, with highs reaching the lower 50’s across much of the region.

Temperatures were not too cold for trick or treat time, with many communities staying in the 40’s. As mentioned above, these are very typical temperatures for this time of the year.

As the milder air moved in during the day on Saturday, it created a spectacular vail of altocumulus clouds over Boston. Some friends on Facebook saw these cloud formations, and posted some beautiful pictures!

If you looked up and saw it, I’m sure you would of noticed. Some call it a “mackeral sky” as the sky looks like the side of a mackeral fish. Very wavy, with alternating blue sky, and dark clouds, which look like ribbon candy, or pillows.

Sunday was supposed to be sunnier and warmer, but the clouds certainly held tough during the day. Eventually, the sun broke through later in the day, but by that time, it was already setting, at 4:38 in the afternoon! Temperatures did warm up a bit, with the highs making it into the low 60’s.

So how do you think the weather was this October? If you said, fairly typical, you are correct! After a torrid September, where Boston had its second warmest September on record, October cooled off quite a bit.

Because September was so warm, it may have seemed a bit colder in October at times, relative to averages. And in fact, when we tallied the whole month up as a whole, it averaged out to be exactly normal for the month!

This does not happen too frequently here in Boston. Remember our weather motto: extremes make the averages. One noteworthy event in October was the early freeze, which occurred in Boston on the 19th.

This was the earliest freeze to occur in the city since October of 1979! In addition, Boston recorded a trace of snow, when a round of snow showers crossed the area on the 18th. Heavy rainfall at the beginning and end of the month was significant, but still left us with a deficit for the month.

We also continue to run a significant deficit of precipitation for the year, of minus 7.68.” Many might say, what about all that snow last winter?

Yes, there was a lot of snow. Historic record amounts fell. However, much of the snow that fell, had very little water content to it. The fact that it was so bitterly cold when this snow fell, was unprecedented! We then proceeded to enter a very dry period from March through April.

Our wettest month of the year actually turned out to be June, when a nasty, cold and wet pattern settled in. If you recall, it was an awful month, with nearly 6″ of rain falling. Many thought it was going to be a year without a summer.

In July, the weather pattern turned dry once again. In fact, every month since July has featured below normal precipitation. August and September is when the summer really got cooking, when hot and dry weather really settled into the region.

In a nutshell, June was the only month with above normal rainfall this year. With all that snow, February had just typical amounts of precipitation, which fell all as snow!

We are now two thirds of the way through fall. What can we expect for November this year? November is a true transition month. We can literally get anything in November. Typically, November is our wettest month here in Boston…it’s also our cloudiest month. Some would call it gloomy.

I find November to be quite beautiful. Caught in between the bitter cold of winter, and the temperate temperatures of fall, November typically brings a little bit of everything to the plate.

In the beginning, fiery reds of Octrober may continue to bring peak fall foliage along Massachusetts east coastal communities. A faster moving jet stream brings alternating mild periods, punctuated by times of cold.

Because of latent heating, the ocean keeps harsh winter weather at bay in much of coastal New England. So the cold does not typically last for a day or two. This is not to say we don’t get winter weather in November.

In coastal New England, first snows may wait until close to Thanksgiving time. A significant snow of 4″ or more may hit coastal areas once every 5 years or so. Typically, November snow averages about an inch or two along the coast. Some years, we don’t get snow in November.

In the interior, winter can get started in earnest by mid month. Up in the mountains, it gets cold enough for ski areas to start making snow. Some years, such as last year, a heavy snowfall can occur.

Last year, a strong nor’easter roared up the coast around Thanksgiving time. This brought heavy snow to the interior of New England, and a mixture of snow and rain along the coast. This was our only wintery tpe storm, until the end of January of this year. Then, as we all know, the rest was history!

What about this November? Well, if you are not a fan of cold and snow, I’m happy to report to you, that we have an official spell of Indian Summer coming up this week! Because 99% of New England has already experienced its first freeze, this will be a classified as an official case of Indian Summer!

How long? How warm? Well, I got a good idea how warm, but how long is not as certain. Some computer models are roasting New England with abnormally warm temperatures straight through the month! Possibly even record territory.

However, I’m not completely sold on this train of thought. For sure the strong El Nino seems to be wanting to flood the eastern part of the U.S. with warm air. This will be especially true for the first 10 days of the month.

After that, I’m seeing some signs that the polar jet stream may want to become a bit stronger, and start sending colder air towards us.

With this clash of air masses, I would not be surprised to see an early season storm hit New England, with strong winds, heavy rain, and also heavy wet snow.

In the end, I am expecting a changeable month, with periods of very warm temperatures, especially this week, along with bouts of cold weather. Also with the chance for that significant storm to hit the region.

Average it all out, and I’m expecting November to feature average temperatures, to perhaps a degree or two warmer than average. I do not see any sustained cold to make this month 2 degrees colder than average like last year.

What does all this mean for our upcoming winter? Last week, the National Weather Service out of Taunton, Ma. actually posted a falling acorn advisory! I posted this advisory on Facebook, and got some interesting comments!

Some were wondering if this was a joke. Nope, no joke! It has been a bumper crop of acorns this year. With the strong winds late last week, the folks at the NWS posted an advisory on acorns being a threat, falling as projectiles.

Some thought it was a joke, but I felt the advisory was warranted. Many folks commented on thousands of acorns falling off oak trees. If one of these were to hit you in the head, it could be as dangerous as a hailstone, which could hurt!

This begs the question, does this mean a rough winter is ahead for us? Well, this is a loaded question. We are in November now, and I am diligently gathering all of my sources to formulate my winter forecast, which will be published on November 23rd.

From what I see right now, I can tell you that I believe a very interesting winter is on the way for us this year.

Global teleconnections are only now beginning to line up for the winter pattern. And it may not be until later January until we really see the true pattern settle in. Sound familiar?

Yes, it is similar to last year. With that being said, I do believe the El Nino is going to help keep New England much warmer than last years winter.

A bumber crop of acorns may argue for a lot of snow, but a warm November may counter that theory. I also observed much less fog this October than last year. Last year, we had several days of thick fog in October.

This sometimes translates into a thick snow pack, which indeed came true last winter! In the end, temperature departures for November, is going to give me a better idea of how much snow we can expect here in Boston this winter. Other natural signs such as acorns will also be factored in.

The early call right now, is a less severe winter this year. But still, even if it’s half the amount of last year, it’s still a lot of snow!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this wee a 9 out of 10! Expect a beautiful early November day for the rest of your Monday. Watch for deep blue skies with some high cirrus clouds. It will be mild, with highs reaching into the lower 60’s.

Expect dry and cool weather tonight, with lows mainly in the 30’s and 40’s. Tuesday will feature more sunshine, and light winds, highs will mainly be in the mid 60’s.

Watch for true Indian Summer weather to settle into the region from Wednseday through Friday. Temperatures will be a little cooler with a sea breeze on Wednseday, with highs 58 degrees along the coast, and 68 degrees inland.

Temperatures will warm regionwide Thursday and Friday, along with sunshine, light winds, with highs between 65 and 75 degrees!

A cold front will approach the region on Saturday, along with more clouds and a chance of a few showers. It will be cooler, with highs near 60. Sunday will turn sharply colder, with a brisk wind, and highs near 50. Expect another warm up the following week, followed by another cold front, with even colder weather.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing more about my upcoming winter forecast. I will also talk a bit more about El Nino, and the implications it will have on our winter. In the meantime, enjoy the Indian Summer, winter is closer than you think!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Winter Clues…10/26/15

Good morning! I hope everyone had a nice weekend! Saturday was a bit colder than I expected, with high temperatures remaining mainly in the upper 40’s, under mainly cloudy skies. Afer some early morning showers, some sunshine finally broke through Sunday afternoon. This helped temperatures to briefly warm back up into the lower 60’s. All in all, it was a fairly typical late October weekend.

As for myself, I had a very nice weekend. On Saturday, I met up with a couple weather buddies to attend the 16th annual Southern New England Weather Conference, held in Canton, Ma., right at the base of the Great Blue Hill!

The conference is a great event to attend, bringing together professional meteorologists from the National Weather Sercice, local television personalities, private outlets, and many weather enthusiasts such as myself.

Some of the topics discussed in presentations was the Revere tornado, which hit last year at the end of July. The unusual hail storm that hit Boston this past August.

There were also several interesting discussions about how the National Weather Service is going to be changing their warning system, and how it’s administered to the public. Both the language and the graphics are going to be revised in the not so distance future.

Another interesting presentation one meteorologist talked about, was the misconception that is out there about forecast accuracy, and the way the public perceives it. Despite getting the forecast right nearly 80 to 90% percent of the time, most people will always remember the time they blow it!

Taunton’s National Weather Service director Robert Thompson had a jaw dropping statistical review of Boston’s historic winter last year. Along with showing dramatic pictures of the snow, he also reminded us that Boston accumulated 94.4″ of snow in 28 days, along with many other amazing statistics of the winter! Though nothing is gauranteed, he does believe that this may of been a once in a lifetime event that we went through!

Boston’s favorite meteorologist, channel five’s Harvey Leonard, also had a presentation on the same topic. It’s safe to say, there are few meteorologists who can engage a crowd like Harvey! He too analyzed the four major storms that struck Boston, and had many folks laughing along the way!

Towards the end of the conference, there were two more presentations on everybody’s favorite topic…The Long Range Winter Forecast!

You would think, with two presentations from some of the leading forecasters in the industry, that I would have a better handle on our impending winter…nope!

Don’t get me wrong, these guys each had insightful information. However, just like with computer models, they did not agree with each other! This brought an interesting twist to the conference, as in years past, we only had one school of thought! Now, I got to see what someone else was thinking, and this very valuable for me.

In the end, I formulate my own forecast, on how I believe our winter is going to be. However, I would not be telling the truth, if I said I didn’t listen closely, as to what these long range expert forecasters were saying!

So what did they say? Joe D’Aleo, from WeatherBell Analytics, was always know as the guru for long range forecasting. Not only am I a member in his forecast company, but he’s also right most of the time.

Joe bases his forecast on analog packages, and ocean temperature profiles. He believes in cycles, and that the earth’s climate varies naturally from hotter periods, to colder ones. Joe believes we are in for another active winter this year.

Although not as cold as the past couple years, above average snowfall seems likely for the Boston area this winter. He believes this because he feels the current El Nino will slightly shift towards the central Pacific Ocean.

This along with a continuation of warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, will promote a blocking pattern, similar to last year.

How about the other guy? Dan Leonard is the chief meteorologist for WSI, an energy company based out of Andover, Ma. Dan is a intelligent young man, who certainly knows his stuff.

Dan believes this years El Nino is going to be so strong, that it overwhelms the pattern with warm, Pacific air, all the way to New England this winter. He also does not believe the warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska is going to be a factor this winter.

In fact, he is expecting this water to dramatically cool over the next several weeks. Should this forecast come to fruition, you would have to tip your hat to the kid and congratulate him on a great forecast.

The reason being, the cold water in the Gulf of Alaska would promote a deep trough (cold & stormy) towards the west coast of the United States. The natural response to this would mean a ridge of high pressure (warm & dry) along the east coast, most likely including New England.

What do I think? As I have mentioned before, I really need to see the prevailing patterns for November, to formulate my forecast for the winter. However, from what I’m seeing up to this point, I’m now leaning towards a much less harsh winter, than last year.

Why do I say this? Well, it appears to me that the hype of El Nino may be living up to its potential this year. I’m seeing evidence of a stronger sub-tropical jet stream, which would bring warmer air. Without a strong polar jet stream, to inject cold air into the pattern, I can see many of these storms being more rain than snow in Boston this year. This would be the complete opposite of last winter.

Furthermore, long range computer guidance is pointing towards a warmer than normal November, at least for the first two weeks of the month. If this warmer than normal regime were to continue for the whole month, I would be much more inclined to believe Boston will end up with less snow than average this winter.

Just a word of caution, this is very preliminary, and is not my final forecast!! I still need to review a lot of data, and factor in all my other natural signs during the course of the next several weeks! My official winter forecast will be published on November 23rd.

How is the foliage season coming along? This year has a bit of a twist. Not every tree is turning all at once. But the ones that are turning, have incredibly bright colors.

I had a chance to take a bit of a drive this past weekend around the Blue Hills, and also along Rt 2 out towards Concord. After a slow start to the season, the colors were absolutely stunning! The combination of vivid reds, yellows and oranges are making this year a memorable one!

Expect peak fall colors to arrive in Boston over the course of the next two weeks. With the chilly nights, and bright sunny days as of late, another burst of beautiful fall colors right around Halloween of this week.

I’m a bit concerned of a windy rainstorm moving through the area on Wednesday and early Thursday of this week. If we can get by this with minimal leaf loss, next weekend should be beautiful around here. So far, I would rate the foliage season a 8 out of 10. Not bad, considering many experts were expecting a 3 or 4!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I am rating this week a 7 out of 10. Watch for a spectacular fall day for the rest of your Monday. Deep blue skies, will be the backdrop of brilliant sunshine. It will be on the crisp side, with high temperatures only around 50.

With high pressure overhead, tonight will feature clear skies, along with good radiational cooling. This means it’s going to get chilly! Look for widespread 20’s across the countryside. Only urban areas will reamain in the mid 30’s. Also watch for the full “Hunter Moon” to light up the sky.

Tuesday should also be a nice day, with sunshine, along with some afternoon clouds. It should be about 5 degrees warmer than today. There should be more clouds around Tuesday night, so it won’t be as cold as tonight. Low temperatures should fall into the 30’s and lower 40’s.

A large storm system will will be appraoaching New England for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The center of this storm will be passing well to our west. This means a southerly air flow will be streaming into much of New England.

As a warm front approaches, watch for clouds to lower and thicken Wednesday. Rain showers will be overspreading the area from southwest to northeast.

With the southerly winds, it will be milder on Wednesday, with highs near 60. Wednesday night could be quite stormy, with widespread rain, along with some tropical like downpours at times.

It will also be windy, with gusts possibly up to 40 mph. With falling leaves, watch for some localized flooding where catch basins become clogged.

As the storm intensifies to our northwest, look for winds to shift and become gusty out of the west, and southwest on Thursday. This will drive a wedge of warm weather into southern New England.

If we get some sun to come out, I would not be surprised if some towns were close to 70! Any early showers will be moving off the coast by mid morning on Thursday.

It should be dry and turning chilly for the Patriots game Thursday night. If you’re going to the game, make sure you bring a jacket!

As winds turn more northwest on Friday, watch for temperatures to be about 15 degrees cooler than Thursday. It should be mainly a dry day. Friday night should be dry and on the chilly side, with lows mainly in the 20’s and 30’s regionwide.

Right now, Halloween is looking like a dry and seasonable day, with high temperatures mainly in the mid 50’s, and lows in the 30’s. Happy Halloween!

If you are going to a Halloween party, you will have another hour to have a good time! Daylight savings occurs early Sunday morning, so don’t forget to turn your clocks back 1 hour when you come home!

Right now, another system may approach us on Sunday, with another chance of some showers during the afternoon. It will also be turning dark by 4:30 on Sunday, which to many folks, is the start of the dark ages.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing how October turned out. I will also have a preview of what I’m expecting for November this year. Watch for more clues for our upcoming winter in next week’s post. In the meantime, enjoy your Halloween…and keep an eye on those November temperatures!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

First Freeze…What’s Next? 10/19/15

Hello! It was a brisk, very autumnal weekend across New England! In fact, some would call it wintery…with many locations seeing their first flakes yesterday!

Saturday was chilly, and featured a mixture of sun and clouds, along with a brisk wind. It turned downright cold for Saturday night and Sunday. Many locations saw their growing season end Saturday night, with low temperatures falling into the 20’s and low 30’s, just inland from the coast.

Sunday was even colder, along with the seasons first snow flurries reported in the Boston area! In fact, it got so cold, that many ski resorts fired up the snow making equipment for the first time! In addition, many resorts reported their first accumulation of the season, from natural snow! It’s so picturesque when foliage is at peak colors, while the top of the mountains are covered in snow!

If you live along the coast and did not receive a killing frost Saturday evening, Mother Nature took care of that last night, with low temperatures falling into the 20’s region wide. Even Boston’s Logan airport fell to 31 degrees, making this the earliest recorded freeze in the city, since 1979!

I happened to be visiting New York City this past weekend. Saturday was sunny, with pleasant fall temperatures. The wind picked up Saturday night, and temperatures began to get cold. Sunday was brisk, with chilly temperatures. Sunshine was mixed with cumulus clouds, racing across the sky.

While in New York, I had the opprtunity to visit the Statue of Liberty, as well as Ground Zero, and the 9/11 memorial site. Honestly, if you went to New York, and did not visit these two landmarks, I would call you unpatriotic! She is majestic and beautiful, symbolizing freedom, opportunity, and hope.

Incredibly, less than 1 mile away from there, the 9/11 memorial symbolizes tragedy and rememberance, of all the first responders, and the innocent people who lost their lives, in one of the most hideous terrorist attacks in world history.

Towering up above the memorial site, is the new Freedom Tower, at One World Trade Center. This building is truly a sight to behold! Not only is this the tallest building in the city, but its design is an architectual wonder.

In addition, the elevator system will leave you speechless. In about 1 minute, the elevator will whisk you up 102 floors! Once at the top, you will be treated with a view like no other!

I was fortunate to have a beautiful, clear day, with near unlimited visibilty! In fact, I was chatting with a weather friend of mine, that I could see the building cumulus clouds to the north, with the snow showers falling across New England!

Speaking of snow showers, many friends and family were asking me if this is a precurser of what’s to come. The short answer to this question, is yes! Of course it’s a precurser as to what’s to come! You know the punishment is coming, you just don’t know how severe, or how long it’s going to be!

Up until this point, we have had a glorious fall season. Sunny, warm days, with very few cold, frosty nights. All that came to an end this weekend. We all know the saying, all good things must come to an end!

Some years, it struggles to get down to 32 degrees at Logan airport in the fall. This is mainly because the observation area is surrounded by the relatively warm ocean. This definitely modififies the climate, sometimes keeping it warm, deep into November!

This year, the end of the growing season was sharp, and abrupt. Logan airport’s average first 32 degree reading doesn’t normally happen until November 7th. In the rural areas, this is normally a month before this date. So you can see, the suburbs were late, while the city was early this year.

Does the early freeze mean a bad winter is ahead? Not necessarily. I researched other years when the temperature fell below freezing during October, and the results were not impressive. The winter following October 1979, was cold and dry, with well below normal snowfall. It happened again in October 1988, when that winter too, was very uneventful.

Does this mean a winter with less than normal snow is on the way? Well, no, I’m certainly not ready to make that call either. There’s just way too many variables to study, that still could make this go either way.

Computer models are conflicting at long range outlooks for the winter. Many American based models are calling for a mild winter, with less than average snow.

However, there are several European models that are painting a much different picture for us here in the east. Because there’s such a conflict, I must rely more on my “natural signs” to help me formulate my winter forecast this year.

In my opinion, October patterns do not tell me much for the upcoming winter. It’s what happens in November that tells the real story. I love the saying, “what happens in November, the winter will remember.” Too cold, or too warm weather, really does not mean much to me during October. This is why my official forecast is not released until November 23rd.

As I have mentioned before, a lot has to do with what state El Nino is, as we head into winter. If it remains too strong, it will overwhelm the region with warm weather, with less snow. However, if El Nino begins to weaken, colder air could mix with a strong subtropical jet stream, resulting in another winter of above average snow.

Right now, I am leaning towards this solution. But by how much, and how severe, is yet to be determined. I am following this very carefully, and will continually be updating everyone as we move deeper into the fall.

How’s our fall foliage seaon coming along? I am happy to report, it has been a surprisingly bright foliage season thus far. Unlike other years, foliage is turning across much of the region, all at the same time. Trees turning bright red, yellow, and oranges are common place everywhere you go! For this week, anywhere just outside of route 128 will offer peak foliage.

For us here in Boston, the freeze came at the most perfect time. Best fall colors arrive a week after a freeze. If nights were to continue to be below freezing, leaves would just drop off the trees.

However, if milder weather arrives, which it will this week, colors will explode around here during peak week, which is during Halloween week. This is because the milder mix of temperatures will allow sugars to continue feeding the trees, bringing out the most vivid colors.

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I am giving this week a 7 out of 10. Beautiful fall weather to continue for fall foliage viewing. Expect brilliant sun for the rest of today. Despite temperatures in the 40’s it’s going to feel warmer than yesterday, due to less wind. Watch for tumbling temperatures the first half of tonight, with temperatures quickly falling into the 30’s. Temperatures will not fall much more, because clouds will limit the drop off.

Tuesday will feature more clouds today, as warmer temperatures begin working back into the area. Highs will be 50’s north of the Mass Pike, and lower 60’s south.

There may be a few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. I am not expecting a washout, just some passing showers as a warm front moves through. Expect it to be even a bit warmer, with highs in the lower to mid 60’s.

Thursday could be the pick of the week, with some breaks of sun, along with a lot of clouds. It will be warmer still, with highs approaching 70 in some areas! There could be more scattered showers late in the day and at night, but again, a washout is not anticipated.

As a cold front pushes through, Friday will be cooler, with highs back into the 50’s. It may be chilly Friday night, with lows in the 30’s.

Right now, most of the weekend looks fair, and seasonable. Saturday looks like a nice day, with a mix of sun and clouds, with highs near 60. Clouds may increase a bit on Sunday, along with the chance of more showers late in the day, with seasonable temperatures continuing.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing whether our nice fall weather is going to continue into November, as well as a new foliage report. I will also have another update on my winter forecast. In the meantime, no need to pull out the winter gear just yet, let’s at least get through Halloween!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

INDIAN SUMMER! 10/12/15

Good morning, all! It was an exquisite weekend acroos all of New England! Saturday was a perfect fall day, with 100% sunshine, and temperatures in the mid 50’s. Sunday was even better, with more sunshine, and temperatures about 10 degrees warmer. But could the best be saved for last?

I would say, yes! After all of the beautiful weather we have had so far this fall, today could quite possibly be the best day of them all! After a rocky start to October, the weather pattern has reverted back to our stable, tranquil ways of September. I’m sure I won’t hear too many complaints about this!

I attended one of my best friends father’s memorial service yesterday. I bring this up, because not only was he a great father, but he was also a scholar in meteorology.

Completing an undergraduate degree in meteorology is difficult enough. Achieving your masters and doctoral degree in it from MIT puts you in an elite class of intelligence.

You would of never seen Jim Mahoney on television forecasting the weather. His goals were more far reaching than this. Jim was a pioneer in working closely with the government in educating the public and private sector on climate change.

As the Deputy Administrator for NOAA for many years, Jim focused his energy on numerous government research studies on climate change. People like this don’t come along too often.

Jim may of been years ahead of his time. We may not see what he was working on come to fruition until many years from now. I will miss discussing climate change and other meteorological topics, with Jim. He will be missed as a father, and in the science community.

Before going inside for the memorial, a few of my friends, and myself, were enjoying the sunny, warm weather. One of my friends asked me if this was Indian Summer.

I really wanted to say, yes! Of course it’s Indian Summer. But the technical side of me wouldn’t allow me to do it. I told him, tecnically, it’s not Indian Summer.

I proceeded to tell him to qualify as an official Indian Summer, we must have received a frost. My friend then said, “Pete, it’s like in the summer, when it’s 89 degrees with high humidity, it’s hot, but not an official heat wave.”

Who could argue with that? It seemed logical enough for me, so I said it’s ok to call it Indian Summer!

Just for the record, We have had several episodes of Indian Summer “like” weather so far this fall. To be classified as official, you must first receive your first frost. If weather patterns hold true, our whole area may very well receive a unusually shot of winter like temperatures come next weekend.

This will mean two things. First, this would mean an abrupt end to the growing season for much of New England. For interior locations, this would not be too unusual, and has already happened in some locations.

However, for coastal communities, such a cold snap, would mean freezing temperatures a couple of weeks ahead of normal. Such a cold snap would be quite the shock, after the warm fall we’ve been having.

Second, any warm temperatures with light winds after next weekend, would officially be classified as Indian Summer!

How would this affect our foliage season? Well, it already has been a bit of a strange season. After such a warm and dry end to the summer, the trees have certainly been reluctant to change!

With that being said, I have seen pictures and read reports of some patches of brilliant color all across New England. Overall, folks have said they’re pleasantly surprised with some of the vivid colors showing up. Other areas are remaining geeen and still not near peak color.

It’s difficult to say how the trees are going to react after the cold snap coming up next weekend. I would say, if it warms back up after the freeze, which it should, trees will begin to quickly change color the following week. This may result in a quick, but vivid burst of fall colors.

No doubt, the cold is going to shock the trees, but the mild weather following the cold snap should allow the trees to briefly change color, before leaf drop.

If it gets too cold, the trees may shut down completely, and the leaves will suddenly drop without changing color. I will monitor this situation carefully next weekend, and have another foliage report for everyone next Monday!

After the memorial, several friends were asking me what my thoughts were for the upcoming winter. Although my official winter forecast will not be published until November 23rd, I certainly don’t mind chatting with folks about what I’m thinking.

As a rule, Columbus Day is when I begin to get serious in cultivatiing my winter forecast. This is why I tell folks it’s still too early to really tell from now! I still have quite a bit of research ahead of me!

Over the course of the next several weeks, I will be closely monitoring the progress of El Nino, oceanic temperatures, October and November temperature and precipitation patterns.

I will also be reading countless technical discussions, as well as tune in to what the experts in the field are thinking! There are about a dozen more “top secret” other components I factor into my forecast. Some of which I have discussed in the past, and will mention in the future.

Right now, the early call on winter highly depends on on the state of El Nino, and Pacific Ocean temperatures. If El Nino peaks earlier than normal, say in November, then fades thereafter, we may be looking at a winter similar to last year. I’m not forecasting another record winter just yet, but it could play out similar, with a warm start, then a stormy and cold finish, starting in February, but especially in March.

Exactly how much snow is yet to be determined, but another year of above average snowfall seems possible at this point. Average for Logan airport is 44.” Like last year, much of this may come with frantic finish. With a active sub-tropical jet stream supplied by the El Nino, and high latitude blocking in Canada, such a pattern could bring a historic late season blizzard to the region.

However, I would say there’s also an equal chance, that the current El Nino maintains its strength, a much different scenerio could play out for us here in New England. This would result in a much milder winter, with only occasional snowfalls, and most likely resulting in below average snowfall, especially for the Boston area. I will continue to monitor these possibilities, and have frequent updates for everyone over the next several weeks!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily on today! Expect a perfect “10” for your Columbus Day. If you enjoy crisp, fall like temperatures, you might as well go to the beach today, and wait until next weekend!

Watch for deep blue skies, and near 100% of the possible sunshine. Temperature will be too warm for Columbus Day, with the average high of about 75 degrees. It’s not out of the question that some communities nick 80! With weather like this, I would forgo the apple picking or foliage trip, and head directly to the beach! It could be the very last opportunity!

Tonight will see some clouds beginning to increase. Due to the clouds, temperatures will be on the mild side, with lows in the 40’s and 50’s.

Tuesday will be a changeable day, with a mixture of clouds along with some sunny breaks. It still will be warm, with highs between 68 and 74. There also will be the chance of a few scattered showers here and there at any time during the day. I am not expecting a washout.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler yet on Wednesday, with generally dry conditions, highs will mainly be between 62 and 65 degrees. Fair and dry weather will be the rule Wednesday night, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Thursday will be even cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 50’s. Watch for a chilly night Thursday night. If clouds stay away, it could turn frosty across the interior, with lows in the lower to mid 30’s across the countryside, to lower to mid 40’s in urban areas.

Expect clouds to be on the increase on Friday. There is going to be a period of showers moving through during the afternoon and evening. It will also be a bit milder, with highs back up into the lower 60’s.

As it stands right now, expect our first taste of real fall air to move into New England this weekend. Saturday should be a sunny, crisp day, with highs mainly in the 50’s. It will turn quite chilly Saturday night, with lows in between 32 and 42.

Sunday will be colder yet, with highs only near 50. Sunday night could feature a widespread freeze event across most of New England, even at the coast! Temperatures could fall between 22 and 32 degrees across the region…brrrr!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating the fall foliage across the region. I will also be talking about a unusual development in the Atlantic Ocean, which showed up this summer. In the meantime, it may not be an official Indian Summer today, but I doubt many will complain!

Happy Columbus Day!

Pete

Disaster…Averted! 10/5/15

Hello, all! If you were unsure whether summer would ever end last week, make no mistake about it, fall 2015 has arrived! If you enjoy following the weather and climate, such as myself, it’s been one for the record books, so far!

Going in reverse, starting with this past weekend, the weather felt very much like the season at hand…perhaps even a bit Novemberish.

Saturday featured gusty northeast winds, with periods of rain and drizzle around Boston. If you were on the Cape, it was even stormier, with heavy rain and strong northeast winds. Temperatures were on the cold side, with highs barely in the 50’s.

As the storm pulled away, the weather improved quite a bit on Sunday. Sunshine was mixed along with some dark stratocumulus clouds racing across the sky. In this case, the bark was worse than the bite, as these clouds typically don’t produce heavy precipitation. Temperatures were very fall-like, with many towns not getting out of the 50’s.

The big news last week was the sudden change to autumn temperatures here in New England, and of course, Hurricane Joaquin (pronounced wa-keen).

Last Monday continued the theme of this September, featuring warm and dry weather. In fact, this September was the second warmest on record here in Boston!

Tuesday, low clouds increased across the area, it remained warm and muggy, but the air was heavy, and you knew something was about to happen.

Wednesday continued to be on the warm & muggy side. All the while, strong southerly winds transported muggy air throughout the region. After a nearly rainless August and September the damn was about to break, and boy did it ever!

During the morning, a cold front was slicing through New England. Cool air was undercutting the warm air at the surface, causing it to lift into the atmosphere.

As this warm air lifted into the atmosphere, it cooled and condensed, triggering torrential downpours of rain, with many communities receiving about 5 inches of water in just a few hours!
Even Boston broke its daily record with nearly 3 inches of rain falling.

Later in the day, winds shifted to the northeast, draining much cooler temperatures into the area! And that was it. In just a few hours, summer was swept out to sea, and fall arrived!

As we move forward, I am sure will look back at this event, as the catalyst that broke down the unprecedented warm & dry pattern which we had.

Some computer models had this pattern continuing well into October. But Mother Nature said otherwise! It could go on for only so long. Boston was nearly 8″ below average for precipitaion so far this year. As it is, we are still well below average, but this storm did indeed put a dent into our drought.

And it could of been so, so much worse. Had Hurricane Joaquin meandered up the coast, we would of received at least triple amounts of rainfall than what we already got. As it was, the Carolinas were hit with a flood of biblical proportions.

Once fearing the worst, with a category 3 hurricane forecasted to make landfall, folks in the Carolinas breathed a sigh of relief as the storm suddenly turned east, then northeast, sparing them a direct hit from the storm.

However, in a very complex turn of events, the same deep trough of low pressure which helped steer the storm away, began to interact with the storm, feeding a conveyor belt of tropical precipitation straight into the Carolinas. The end result was a catastrophic flood of between 20 and 30″ of rain!

Earlier in the week, computer models were forecasting the storm to make landfall in the Carolinas, then turn north up the coast to batter New England as a strong nor’easter.

This was not a forecast for the faint of heart. Expert meteorologists were having a difficult time grasping the complex pattern at hand.

To further complicate the situation, computer models were not in agreement of the track. American based model GFS had an alarming track, which would of brought a very destructive storm into the mid-atlantic region.

On the other hand, the European computer model said no way. This hurricane is going out to sea. This made for a very high stakes forecast. If the storm had come, we are talking billions of dollars worth of damage.

For this reason, I give credit for the many meteorologists who sounded the alarms of a possible landfalling hurricane. This was not a storm to take lightly.

As it is, it’s going to take years for the Bahamas to recover from this storm. In my opinion, it’s better to be more prepared for a possible catastrophe, than to be caught off gaurd.

Fortunately for us, the European computer model prevailed in its duel with the GFS. For what its worth, both models did well in forecasting the feet of rain in the Carolinas. Some were even questioning whether the models were overdoing the amount of rainfall being forecasted.

So we avoided a disaster this time around. Will this be the case for this winter? I can tell you this, if this pattern were to repeat itself in the colder months ahead, we could be looking at a winter storm of historic proportions.

I was chatting with a very good weather friend of mine over the weekend, and we both agreed that this pattern resembles what the computer models are forecasting for the upcoming winter. I’m not ready to pull the trigger on another heavy winter for New England just yet.

However, I can tell you many long range computer models are projecting a very interesting pattern coming up this winter. Yes, we have a very strong El Nino currently in place. Typically, this would mean a warm and wet winter for much of New England.

But, this does not look like the typical El Nino. Subtle differences in ocean temperatures, and the position of the El Nino, can have huge implications on our upcoming winter weather.

Although a bit cooler than last year, warmer than normal ocean temperatures continue off the Pacific northwest coast. This would promote a ridge of high pressure in that part of the country. In addition, computer models continue to suggest a strong positive (high pressure) in Canada, over a strong negative (low pressure) across the southern United States.

Right now, the American models are further south with this set up. This would imply a warmer winter for New England, with most storms staying south of us.

However, European models have a much more sinister look to it. The strong positive is placed further northwest in western Canada, with a very strong El Nino like jet stream cutting underneath, through southern California, along the southern tier of the United States, then up the east coast towards New England.

Should this become the predominant pattern this winter, much of New England could be looking at another stormy winter, with above average amounts of snowfall.

In addition, this would be a great pattern for central and southern California, with copious amounts of rain and mountain snow.

As I mentioned earlier, I am not ready to make a final call just yet, just something to keep in mind until my winter forecast is published on November 23rd.

How is our fall foliage coming along? I’m happy to report, recent cooler nights has finally got things going! In addition, the heavy rains of last week, just may have salvaged our season, at the very last second!

Reports are coming in from northern New England of vivid fall colors exploding seemingly overnight! This may be the type of season where the colors change quickly, with vivid color, then fade quickly. So if you’re planning on taking a fall foliage trip up north, this weekend may be the best one to go!

Because it’s Columbus Day weekend, expect many folks out there looking for that perfect tree! I would recommend anywhere in the New Hampshire’s White Mountain region, and don’t forget about the Kancamagus Highway!

In addition, I also saw some folks posting some spectacular pictures as close as central Massachusetts, just this past weekend! Watch the color wave continue to press south in coming weeks.

If you can’t make a trip, peak colors could be right here in the Boston area by the last week of October! So far, early indications show some bright reds and oranges showing up around Boston.

If the temperatures remain seasonal (not too warm, and not too cold), we may enjoy another bright foliage season right into the beginning of November. I am tracking some unseasonably cold temperatures around the 20th of October, so this is something to keep an eye on.

Now for your weekly aoutdoor autumn activity forecast, I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect a mainly cloudy afternoon, with cool temperatures, with high temperatures near 60. It may clear later today just in time for a nice sunset.

Tonight will be mainly clear and cool, with lows mainly in the 30’s and 40’s. Temperatures should hold near 50 in urban areas.

For the period of Tuesday through Thursday, expect sunny days, and clear nights. Watch for temperatures to up to the 60’s Tuesday, near 70 on Wednesday, and cool back off to the lower 60’s on Thursday. It will be cool at night, but just about seasonable, with temperatures mainly in the 30’s and 40’s region wide.

A cold front will approach the region on Friday. There is a strong chance of showers on Friday, and into Friday night. Any early showers on Saturday should clear out by midday. Temperatures should be on the seasonable side, with highs in the mid 60’s. Right now, the rest of the Columbus Day weekend looks sunny and cool.

There is some indications of a chilly shot of air on Sunday and into Monday. I will go conservative right now, and call for temperatures near 60 during the days, and chilly 30’s and 40’s at night. If that cold air does come, it would turn colder, especially up north, with highs in the 40’s and 50’s, and lows in the 20’and 30’s!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will update your fall foliage report. I will also continue to have updates for our impending winter patterns. In addition, I will update the progress of our fist freeze possible around October 20th. In the meantime, enjoy the fall colors while we have it, winter will be here before we know it!

Happy Columbus Day!

Pete

Stormy Weather, Ahead! 9/28/15

Hello! Welcome to autumn! After a long summer siege, it turned out to be a classic fall weekend here in New England. Right on cue, for the first weekend of fall!

Saturday featured brilliant sunshine with temperatures right about average, in the upper 60’s. It may of felt a bit cooler, only because its been so abnormally warm around for so long.

Under clear skies, and a near full “harvest Moon” Saturday night, temperatures turned a lot colder than what many expected. I bet if you were camping in the north country, you were quite surprised to see temperatures drop to frosty levels early Sunday morning. My sister Pam reported a first frost of the season early Sunday morning, in coastal New Hampshire!

Sunday was a spectacular early fall day. After a very chilly start, the late September sun quickly warmed things up. With 100% of the possible sunshine, light winds, and mild temperatures, it was a great day to be outdoors!

Sunday evening featured a full lunar eclipse! I was very happy the clouds stayed away! It was a perfect late September night, with clear skies, light winds, and cool, but not cold temperatures. The event did not disappoint!

Many folks took amazing pictures, as the moon transformed from brilliant white to a rusty red at totallity. As the earth’s shadow passed the moon, the familiar bright white moon reappeared. It was a celestial event that I won’t soon forget. I hope you were able to get out and enjoy the sight!

Where did this sudden chill come from? It seemed as if the summer weather would never end. To have chilly nights at the end of September is not a unusual for us here in New England. This is especially true if you live across the interior. In fact, many areas across interior northern New England should have had their first frost by now.

With the weather being so abnormally warm, we have been lulled into thinking that it may never end! Reviewing the weather maps, you would think that we are still in a warm weather pattern. However, upon closer inspection, you would note that the high pressure areas, that were bringing us such warm weather earlier in the month, have shifted.

Earlier, these high pressure were originating from Bermuda, and pumped warm, humid weather into New England. Lately, these areas of high pressure have been building north of us in southeast Canada. This has brought a cool northerly drift into New England from southern Canada.

Saturday night featured ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Clear skies along with light winds, allowed any heat from the day to escape into space.

This, along with a longer night, allowed temperatures to plummet across much of New England! This is what I call a sneaky cold air advection attack!

Speaking of cold weather, when do we typically see our first frost? Well, it all depends where you live. As the nights grow longer, cold air begins to pool in southern Canada, and then seeps down into New England.

Interior valley locations can sometimes see frost as early as mid-September. Low lying locations such as Concord, N.H. has their first frost, on average, around September 20th. Higher elevations also typically receives their first frost the same time.

If you live closer to the coast, you can add about a month to this date. Coastal New Hampshire and Maine can see frost as early as early October. In coastal southern New England, it can be after mid-October. However, interior eastern Massachusetts can receive frost much earlier than that.

Urban areas right along the water may not see frost until Halloween time. Boston’s Logan airport, for example, does not see there first freeze until November 7th, on average. However, this date is skewed, and is not indicative to the surrounding areas!

This is because Logan is surrounded by water. Areas, just 5 miles inland can fall to 32 degrees a few weeks earlier! Suffice to say, October is the month where most areas see the growing season end. Typically early October for inland areas, and late October if you live along the coast.

Last week I talked about how the fall foliage is late this year. This is still true. However, with the arrival of cooler temperatures as of late, I am beginning to see some trees starting to change color.

After a frosty Saturday night up north, I have seen reports that the leaves are responding! Once the trees start to respond to the cooler temperatures, expect the leaves to start changing more quickly.

With that being said, peak colors still look like they are running up to 2 weeks behind schedule. This number may change depending on the weather as we head into October.

Right now, I would say peak colors will be in the White Mountains of New Hampshire by Columbus Day weekend. Thereafter, expect the color wave to drop to southern New Hampshire and the Berkshires of Massachusetts the third week of October.

By Halloween week, expect peak colors north and west of Rt 128 around Boston. You may have to wait until the first week of November in Boston this year, and even longer if you live on the south shore heading towards the Cape.

I am not anticipating as brilliant of a show as we had last year. It’s been far too warm and dry as of late, which stressed the leaves. In addition, heavy wind swept rains this week may further damage the leaves.

With that being said, there will always be pockets of brilliant color. If we happen to get some cool, frosty nights in October, a late surge of color is always a possibility!

It’s been no secret that September has been a very warm and dry month. However, as is the case with many things, looks can be deceiving! Most of the month averaged up to 8 degrees above normal! It wasn’t until recent chilly days, where this number has cooled off to around 4 degrees.

It was also very dry! However, a significant rainstorm is likely on the last day of the month, which will skew the numbers!

How does October look? Well, I would say it’s going to be a very changeable month. I am expecting more fluctuation in temperatures than September, ranging form quite chilly, to periods of warm, Indian Summer like weather. I also see the possibility of more storms this month, with above normal amounts of precipitation. I don’t think it’s going to snow in Boston, but higher elevations of New England may indeed experience their first snow during October!

How about the weather for the short term? For a change, it actually looks like it may turn quite stormy around here! Strong high pressure building to our north, will interact with a series of low pressure areas passing to our south. The pressure gradient between the two will create a strong northeast wind, especially along the coast.

Because there is a Greenland Block in place, this high and low pressure will be in no hurry to leave. High astronomical tides for the time of the year will further complicate the scenerio for coastal residents! Please read my forecast below for all the important details!

Now for your weekly fall outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Expect stormy weather, from Wednesday through Sunday! For the rest of today, expect a mixture of sun and clouds. It will be warm, with highs in the mid 70’s. Watch for building low clouds and areas of fog tonight, it will become more humid, with lows in the 50’s and low 60’s. I don’t expect a lot of rain, but a few sprinkles or light showers can not be ruled out.

Tuesday will feature more clouds, and become more muggy. It’s not out of the question that we see some breaks of sun during the morning. Later in the day, there will be the chance of a few showers or even some thunderstorms rumbling through the area. It will continue warm, with highs in the 70’s. More showers are possible Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

A slow moving cold front looks to slowly press through the region on Wednesday. As this front pushes through, the turn to fall and stormy weather may be dramatic! Winds will shift into the northeast, and a heavy windswept soaking rain should develop. Temperatures will also fall into the 60’s.

Northeast winds will persist for both Thursday and Friday. This will result in some coastal flooding issues. If you live in flood proned zones, be on gaurd to minor, to possibly even some pockets of moderate coastal flooding. This is due to persistant east to northeast winds, and high astronimical tides. It won’t be raining as much, but pockets of heavy showers and drizzle should keep it wet most of the time.

Another strong storm may threaten the area on Saturday. This may bring another slug of heavy rain and wind to the region. Depending upon the track, this could either be a straight nor’easter type of storm, with gusty northeast winds. This would also make it a very chilly, raw weekend, with highs in the upper 50’s and low 60’s.

However, some computer models are forecasting that this storm could actually move north, northwest of Boston. If this the case, winds would veer into the southeast, and temperatures would briefly turn a bit milder, into the 60’s.

At this point, the stormy weather looks like it wants to linger into Sunday. If we’re lucky, morning rain may give way to some late afternoon sun, but this may be too optimistic. In any event, expect a stormy week, with periods of heavy rain, and strong northeast winds, and coastal flooding.

If this type of storm were to happen a couple months form now, we would be talking about snow measured in feet. As it is, I am expecting between 3 and 5 inches of rain from these storms this week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will begin to talk a bit more about our upcoming winter. I will also have a new fall foliage report. In the meantime, it may be turning stormy, but at least we don’t have to shovel rain!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Countdown To Autumn…9/21/15

Hello! Last weeks forecast of a perfect 10 out of 10 certainly did not disappoint! I have run out of superlatives to describe the weather of late!

After a somewhat warm and humid day on Saturday, a very slow moving cold front sluggishly moved through the area on Saturday night. Sunday was a spectular day!

In fact, it was really our first real fall-like day of the season. Super dry air, deep blue skies, and a cool breeze, made it a great day to be outdoors enjoying fall festivals, apple picking, or going on a hike.

Notice how I didn’t mention fall foliage. This is because there is non to speak of as of yet! My sister and brother in-law were hiking in the White Mountains on Saturday, and reported back to me only a few splashes of color showing up. To be fair to Mother Nature, technically it’s still summer.

Every year is different, for sure. Last year, the color wave was charging south like nobody’s business! Leaves were changing faster than the reports could keep up, especially in the north country.

As the color wave reached the Boston area, it slowed, due to the modification of the warm ocean. However, this resulted in a spectacular, extended fall foilage season around the Boston metropolitan area.

Leaves began changing by mi-September, and did not actually peak until the first week of November! Vivid red was the color of choice last year, with lots of orange and brilliant yellows.

So what about this year? The combination of a abnormally dry summer, and a very warm to hot August and September, has resulted in a odd start to the fall foliage season.

Typically, by the end of September, foliage should be approaching peak color in the far reaches of northern New England. As we move through autumn, the color wave drops approximately 50 miles south each week, reaching the Boston area by Halloween. With that being said, there normally are patches of brilliant color, even around Boston, well before the color wave moves through.

As mentioned above, fall foliage slows down as it reaches the coastal plain. Where up north, and in higher terrain, peak can sweep through in a few days, it can last up to two weeks along the coast! This is because the ocean modifies the climate along the coast.

For a colorful foliage season, a fine balance of certain weather conditions must be in place. Would if the trees just depended on the less sun light it receives this time of year? If this were the case, then yes, the trees would still change color and drop their leaves.

However, when we have optimal weather conditions, this brings out the brightest colors in the leaves. Clear, cool nights, with temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s, and bright sunny days seems to be the best weather to bring out the best colors. Also, a normal amount of rain during the summer is key, so the trees remain strong and healthy.

Too much rain in the summer, or early fall can create a fungus on the leaves and turn them brown. A early season freeze, with temperatures falling below freezing is also not good for the leaves, as this will suddenly cut the feeding process of sugars into the tree, and the leaves could just fall off the trees without turning color.

Too warm temperatures are also not good. This may confuse the trees in thinking that it’s still summertime, and continue the feeding process to keep the leaves greener, longer. Stong autumn winds, with heavy rain can also destroy the foliage, by muting the colors.

Chilly, crisp nights, along with sunny, mild days is the ideal kind of weather for fall foliage. Light touches of frost, followed by sunny, calm days, seem to bring out the best colors!

Abnormally dry weather this summer, and recent very warm to hot temperatures have resulted in a delayed start to the foliage season this year. In fact, there are very few spots across New England where the foliage is turning.

I hate to be a pessimist, but I highly doubt we see the colors of last year. It’s just been too dry and warm. The trees are still in summer mode! At the rate we’re going, the leaves are going to be on the trees to November! Currently, the trees are about 2 weeks behind schedule. This offsets last year, when we were 2 weeks ahead of schedule!

I suspect October will feature cooler night time temperatures to get the leaves changing. If it goes into November, so be it. It’s all part of the great balance Mother Nature performs called our climate. Remember, it’s always the extremes, that make the averages.

The cold front that pressed through New England on Saturday night, did bring cooler temperatures to the region last night.

It is possible, if we receive cooler night time temperatures, along with some rain, Mother Nature may surprise us with a nice show in October and early November.

It’s also possible, with such tranquil weather as of late, that the trees will gently turn colors, as we head through October. We just have to avoid a late season tropical storm, or early season nor’easter. No doubt, autumn will be beautiful, no matter what happens!

So what about our recent weather? As mentioned above, it certainly has been a September to remember! We have been in an unprecedented stretch of sunny, warm, and dry weather. In fact, my brother and his family were enjoying themselves on Old Silver Beach yesterday!

Yes, September features some our best weather of the year. This year has been no exception. Although a bit cooler than recent days, I see no rain for the rest of the month. Just sunny, mild days, and clear cool nights. Almost perfect weather for our foliage??

I envisioned a nice month, but not like this! This year has been the year of extremes. I also envisioned a snowy February, but not the record amount that blasted the city!

Many folks are asking me about my thoughts for the upcoming winter. Please don’t ever hesitate asking me any questions! Talking about and studying the weather is my passion! I always learn new things, and I love answering questions about the weather, and our climate here in New England!

Believe me when I tell you, I am diligently studying the weather patterns, reading technical discussions, and most importantly, watching my natural surroundings, to help me understand what kind of winter we are in for.

Many folks are very concerned about the possibility of another severe winter like last year. This is very understandable, considering what we went through.

I know that folks want to know what’s going to happen. Personally, it is still too early for me to make a educated forecast for my readers. Technically, it’s still summer. My official winter forecast will not be published until November 23rd.

However, I did say that I would be dropping many hints on what I’m thinking well before that date. Like last year, it really is going to be fascinating how all this plays out. There are many atmospheric factors going into this winter, that will need to be studied, before I make a final call.

I can tell you this, although a historic record winter is unlikely this year, another significant winter is on the table. Until I see all the players set up in our atmosphere, anything is on the table. These atmospheric factors begin to line up during October and especially November.

As many of you know, I love to study nature’s signs to help me to determine what our winter will bring. A friend of mine sent me a message on Facebook the other day asking me if the amount of acorns she is seeing has any correlation with the upcoming winter.

My personal opinion is that they do. I have been following acorn productions over the years. In years with few acorns, milder winters tend to follow. When acorns are abundant, more snow than usual tends to fall the following winter.

I just want to say, then I will get onto the forecast, this has been a very robust year for acorns! I’m not saying this is the only thing to watch for. It’s just an interesting observation supplied by Mother Nature. We shall see how this plays out in my overall forecast for the winter.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week another 10 out of 10! It just doesn’t get any better than this! This is actually quite an easy forecast. The only changes this week will be some temperature fluctuations. Even that will not be significant.

Expect sunny, coolish weather for the rest of today, with highs a couple degrees of either side of 70. Tonight will be clear and cool. Lows will mainly be in the 30’s in the deeper valleys, to 40’s in rural areas, and low 50’s in urban areas.

Tuesday may feature some early clouds, but I expect these to clear out, yielding another beautiful day, with highs near 70 once again. Tomorrow night will be clear and cool once again, with low temperatures similar to tonight, perhaps a few degrees warmer.

From the period of Wednesday through Sunday, expect sunny days, and clear cool nights. Temperatures may warm into the mid to 70’s Thursday and Friday, then cool back into mid to upper 60’s over the weekend.

A couple events to point out this week. First, autumn arrives at 4:21 A.M Wednesday morning…Happy Fall! Second, we are going to be treated with a significant celestial event! Watch for a total lunar eclipse this Saturday night! The moon is said to turn a blood red color during the peak of the eclipse. And the weather is going to be perfect for this event!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new fall foliage update. I will also let you know just how much longer we can expect our great weather to last. I will also offer more clues on my winter idea. In the meantime, it’s time to start to start thinking fall…now go find that perfect pumpkin!

Thanks for reading!

Pete