Summer Is King…For Now! 9/14/15

Hello, all! I hope everyone had a relaxing weekend! After several short trips around New England, I toned it back a bit, and stayed home for a change. As advertised, last weeks weather was an incredible blast of summer. Mid summer heat poured into New England, that would of been impressive for mid-July, let alone September!

In fact, Boston reached several milestones. First, we recorded a record high temperature of 96 degrees on Tuesday (also the hottest day of the year). Second, this was Boston’s first official September heatwave since way back in 1983. Third, we have now officially reached 90 degrees 14 times in Boston this summer.

This is nearly double of what we had last year, and is exactly average for a typical summer. Not too bad for a summer which started off with no 90 degree days until mid-July!

As for the weekend, a slow moving cold front sluggishly moved through New England. This brought some showery rains during the Patriots game Thursday evening. Friday dawned on the damp side, but cleared later in the day.

Saturday began with low clouds and fog, but it too broke out later in the day to allow for some sunny breaks. Another system moved through on Sunday, bringing cloudy, foggy, drizzly conditions for much of the day.

The one thing you probably did notice through this stretch, was the sudden drop in temperatures! After the unseasonably hot stretch of last week, many welcomed the return of fall-like temperatures over the weekend!

Is the brief feel of fall going to last? The short answer to this question is no! You could call the brief chill this morning as a island of cool, in a sea of warmth.

With many receiving their fill of summer weather, friends and family have been asking me when genuine fall-like temperatures will be arriving.

Although meteoroligical fall began September 1st, astronomically speaking, the Autumnal Equinox does not officially arrive until September 23rd.

This is important. Many folks try and rush the seasons, with images of fall foliage, Halloween candy, and pumpkins at roadside stands.

Don’t get me wrong, I love fall, and everything that goes with it. But I also know my seasons, and I know that summer is going to squeeze out as much summer as it can get, and possibly more, before it succumbs to fall.

I said it when winter was hanging on into spring, you can’t stop the seasons from changing. We are now losing significant sunlight on a daily basis.

On it’s pilgrimage circling the sun, the Northern Hemisphere is beginning to tilt away from the sun’s direct rays. When we arrive at the Autumnal Equinox, we will have equal time of day and night. As the nights become longer, temperatures will begin to cool, allowing for frost to develop. This is especially true across the interior parts of New England, away from the warmer ocean.

Once fall arrives, the leaves will begin to change, due to the decrease in photosynthesis. The colors that we enjoy this time of year is always present in the leaves. The photosyntheseis produces chlorophyl in the leaves, which brings out the green color. As the light decreases, this cuts off this feeding process to the trees, in essence, making the leaves die, and fall off the tree.

Many factors contribute to the foliage season. It is a fine balance of Mother Nature that brings out the brightest colors. Over the past couple of years, we have enjoyed spectacular colors here in New England.

The combination of just enough rain during the summer and fall, and timely cool snaps, brought extraordinary bright colors out across the region.

If you receive too much rain, fungus may grow on the leaves, turning them brown. Also, a sudden cold snap, with temperatures falling below freezing, may also result in premature leaf drop.

How does it look for this year? I am a firm believer that every year is special in its own right here in New England. However, I must say, it’s not looking as promising this year for vivid colors, as the past couple.

I may be wrong, and there will always be patches of beautiful color. But matching last years spectacular show will be hard to do. The reason I say this is because the weather has not been ideal.

Many parts of New England is currently in the midst of an abnormally dry year, or even under moderate drought conditions. This stresses the trees, and will result in many leaves turning brown, and dropping.

In addition, the weather this summer has been warming as we head into fall. Night time temperatures have been much too warm. And as for the 90’s during the days, this is not ideal temperatures, for sure. These warm temperatures allows the trees to keep feeding with sugars and water, keeping the leaves greener, longer.

The best recipe for a great foliage season is a coolish summer, with plenty of rain. As we head into September, you need cool nights and sunny, mild days. As you head into October, chilly, frosty nights, with sunny days, will bring out the most vivid colors. Again, it’s a fine balance.

Can we still pull it off? Yes, it’s still early enough to salvage this season. Most of the summer was on the coolish side, and we did have plenty of rain in June. If the nights turn chilly in October, and we get just enough rain, it may be just enough to bring out some nice color.

With that being said, I already see a big difference this year, compared to last. There were many trees already turning bright colors this time last year. These same trees this year are still all green! So we shall see!

You may recall, last year was also warm in September, so what gives? Well, this year is even WARMER! Last year, many interior locations had already received several frosts during September.

We are running way above average temperatures so far this September. In fact, after a brief cool shot today, very warm to hot weather will once again come pouring into New England this week!

Looking over the latest long range guidance, this warm weather pattern is likely to continue for the rest of this month, and possibly into much of October as well. This does not mean it will be warm all the time!

It’s quite possible a few shots of chilly air will penetrate into New England now and again. However, what I do see, is that it may be warmer, on average, across much of the region, for the next two months or so. This means it we will likely have more warm days, than cool ones, on average. With temperatures like this, you can also expect the growing season to extend deeper into the fall than normal…especially across the interior.

It’s still too early to tell what November may bring. If I were a betting man, I would say it will be warmer than average as well. But it gets tricky at that point. Computer models show it could begin to get colder.

As you know, I believe November temperatures are the key to forecasting our winter. It could be warm as summer for September and October. However, if November turns out close to average, or slightly below temperatures…watch out!

Our recent dry trends in precipitation looks to continue as well, at least through October.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. Iw ill rate this week a 10 out of 10. We have been on a weather roll! Expect a mixture of sun and clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will feel like September, with highs near 70, along with a gusty west wind at times.

Tonight will feature clear skies, with lows mainly in the 50’s. A few cooler locations may drop into the upper 40’s.

Now, for the period of Tuesday through Saturday, watch for sunny days, and clear, mild nights. Daytime highs will start out in the lower 80’s Tuesday and Wednesday, mid 80’s Thursday and Friday, and mid to upper 80’s on Saturday! It would not shock me if someone touched 90! Night time lows will range between 55 and 65 degrees.

I do believe Saturday could very well be a great beach day! There will be a fairly strong cold front traversing New England this weekend. This should bring a chance of a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms later Saturday, and into Saturday night.

Any showers should clear out for a sunny, windy, cooler day for Sunday. Temperatures should fall back to the mid 70’s. This is still near to even slightly above average for this time of year. Any cool shot will be brief, as another warm week looks to be in store for us come next week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will discuss how warm September’s sometimes translates into cold winters. So don’t read too much into the current warm weather!

I will also have a brief update on the status of our fall foilage this year. My first fall foilage report will come out two week’s from today. I may also briefly have a tropical update. No update this week, due to the lack of activity. In the meantime, summer is king for at least another week, which is fine by many!

Thanks for reading!

*Also, thanks to all my Twitter and Facebook readers for the positive feedback. I welcome any comments or questions, and is always much appreciated!

Pete

September Sizzler! 9/8/15

Hello! I hope everyone had a nice Labor Day weekend! Sorry for the late post, as I just got back from my long weekend. Because of time constraints, this is going to be a super short one. Luckily, we are in a very stable summertime weather pattern, so not much going on with our local weather. As always, there’s lots to talk, but I’ll save this for next week.

There aren’t enough superlatives in the dictionary to describe the weather over the Labor Day weekend. What strarted out as a touch of fall in the air Saturday evening, quickly turned around to mid summer beach weather for both Sunday and Monday. In fact, the temperature soared to 93 degrees on the holiday itself, making this day the hottest day of the summer!

From mountaintop to seashore, I think we can all agree that this truly has been the most spectacular Labor Day weekend in recent memory!

In addition, with Boston reaching 93 degrees yesterday, it’s almost a lock we surpass 90 both today and again tomorrow. This would classify this hot stretch as a official heat wave! Keeping with the extreme theme of 2015, this will be Boston’s first official September heat wave since way back in 1983!

Similar to last winter, this summer has certainly made up for lost time! What started off as a sluggishly cool summer, has made up for lost ground in a hurry! With two more 90 degree days slated for this week, we will reach our average number of 90 degree temperatures for any given season! Boston typically averages 14 days of 90 degrees or higher each summer.

As stated many times in the past, Boston is a classic example of the phrase, “extremes make the averages.” A few years ago, we had 25 days, last year 8, this year, at least 14.

This was a very challenging summer to forecast. I’m glad my original forecast written back in May verified quite well. Despite scaling back a bit in late July, I cautioned that the original forecast may very well verify, due to the late maturation of the seasons as of late.

Many friends and family were asking me all sorts of intelligent questions and comments about the weather over the weekend. I was quite impressed! It makes me feel like they’ve been reading and learning some of my weather talk!

One topic that came up quite a bit, was reminiscing about the historic winter of last year. I loved hearing everone’s war stories on how they survived the brutal winter!

Besides that, family and friends were anxiously awaiting wait what my thoughts were for the upcoming winter season. Well, it’s still a bit too early to know for sure what this winter will bring. Starting from now, I will begin carefully observing my 17 natural signs from Mother Nature, to help me determine what kind of winter we are in store for this year.

I incorporate this, along with the countless technical discussions from the expert meteorologists from WeatherBell Analytics, National Weather Service, and Accuweather. I also value the opinions of our local experienced meteorologists here in Boston. When it comes to forecasting, you just can’t get any better meteorologists than here in the northeast!

Putting this all together, I will be publishing my official winter forecast on November 23rd this year! Before then, you can expect me to be discussing the upcoming winter quite a bit leading up to that date. From an early observation this past weekend, I can tell you the oak tree down at my aunt’s summer house on the Cape, has a bumper crop of acorns on it! Honestly, I have never seen so many robust acorns before! This may be a silly old wives tale, but not in my book. I truly believe a heavy crop of acorns goes in cycles, coinciding with heavy winters to help wildlife store food for a long winter.

You may say, Pete, what about this outrageously hot weather now here in September? Does this mean a warm winter is on the way? Actually, quite the contrary. Many September’s which have been warmer than normal, deliver a different feedback come winter. The same warm pattern now, is cold and often snowy in winter months. Because of the delay in seasonal shifts, milder weather may once again extend into the start of winter this year. However, once the oceans cool off sufficiently enough, winter may once again come in later in the season with a vengeance, much like last year!

Enough talk of winter for now, we are in the middle of our first heat wave in September since 1983 here in Boston! What does the rest of the week look to bring? First, I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect hot weather for the rest of today (as if you didn’t know already)! High temperatures should soar to near a record tying 95 degrees here in Boston. Watch for a hazy, warm and muggy night, with lows to between 65 and 72 regionwide, warmest in urban areas.

Wednesday will feature the 3rd day of our heat wave, with hazy hot, and muggy weather continuing. High temperatures will be mainly in the lower 90’s. There is a increase risk of a scattered thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, especially to the north and west of Boston.

If you are lucky enough to be on the Cape, you can deduct 10 degrees from that. Thursday will be another very warm day. However, with more clouds around, and a approaching front, temperatures should fail to reach 90. It will still be very muggy, with highs mainly in the 80’s. As the cool front approaches, there is the risk of some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Most of this action should remain to the north and west of Boston. If you’re planning to go to the Patriots game Thursday night, expect warm and muggy weather, along with the chance of a few tropical downpours…bring your rain gear! Right now, it doesn’t appear to be a complete washout, but expect to get wet at some point during the game…Go Patriots!

A soaking rain may greet many during Friday morning. Otherwise, expect gradually improving weather during the afternoon. It will begin to feel less muggy, with temperatures holding in the 70’s. Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend, with mainly dry weather and highs in the 70’s once again. Another system may threaten on Sunday, with more showers. Timing could change with that, so stay tuned for updates.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will have a brief forecast for the upcoming autumn. I will also be talking about how our foliage season is shaping up for us here in New England this year. I may also have a quick tropical update for those keeping track. In the meantime, no need to worry about fall just yet, it will all happen in due time!

***Happy Birthday to my sweet niece, Elena!***

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer Extravaganza! 8/31/15

Hello! It was a beautiful weekend regionwide! I hope everyone was able to get out there and enjoy the fine late summer weather. Saturday was a bit on the cool side, but summer heat and humidity surged back into much of New England on Sunday. If you happen to have this week off, boy, do I have a treat for you!

I had a very nice weekend camping and hiking in New Hampshire’s White Mountains. Saturday was a splendid day, with low humidity, and deep blue skies. You could say there was a touch of fall in the air Saturday night, as temperatures cooled off enough for you to see your breath! Sunday featured much warmer temperatures, along with an increase in haze and humidity.

If you enjoy the outdoors, I urge you to take a trip to the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Yes, there are mountains taller in other parts of the world, but few offer the majestic scenery, and intoxicating beauty of the White Mountains!

Fall foliage season is right around the corner, and is one of the best times to go up north! Over the weekend, I did notice some leaves beginning to change. Last year, very chilly nights in August resulted in a early peak of colors. By late September much of the region had peak colors! This was about two weeks ahead of schedule.

I believe with the warmer weather this August, and a continuation of warm temperatures into September, foliage will peak closer to normal times this year, which is right around Columbus Day weekend in this region. This may change depending on the weather, I will keep everyone updated on the color wave, as it heads north to south over the next two months!

If you are up for it, try a hike up one of the many trails. Many of these trails are rugged, and offer a phsysical challenge one can’t find so easily at the gym. I promise you if you make it to the top, Mother Nature will reward you with breathtaking scenic views!

If you’re not up for the hike, you can take the cog railroad up to the top of Mt. Washington, or a ride from the experienced drivers at the Auto Road. I would not recommend driving up the mountain with your vehicle. It is much steeper, and curvier than you think, with hardly any barricades along the edge! Whatever you decide to do, it’s a great outdoors adventure that will deliver lasting family memories!

My relaxing weekend continues even as I write my post today! As I am writing, I am enjoying a nice warm breeze, on a screened in outdoor porch, here at my sister’s house in coastal New Hampshire. I am very grateful to have family and friends living in some of my favorite spots in New England, that I can come visit anytime!

So what’s happening with our weather? As mentioned above, we have one of the most amazing weather patterns settling into our region for the foreseeable future! Looking back to my post from May, this is definitely the pattern I had envisioned settling into New England around this time of the year.

After a rocky start, the summer weather has just been getting beter and better since July. I now see a spectacular stretch of summer weather which will lead us straight through the upcoming Labor Day weekend! And it doesn’t end there! Many long range computer models are now predicting well above normal temperatures to continue through much of September!

For many, Labor Day means the end of summmer. If you have children who need to get back to school, this is essentially true. However, as I have mentioned in the past, September features some of our best weather of the year here in New England. With beach weather extending well beyond Labor Day in many cases. By the looks of the pattern, I can see solid beach and boating weather at least up until the Autumnal Equinox this year.

Why the sudden shift to stable weather patterns? This is a complicated answer to give. Many would rather not care for the answer, and just enjoy it while it lasts! I can tell you alot has to do with the maturation of the season. Ocean temperatures are now at their warmest of the year along the east coast. Since the oceans take longer than the ground to heat up, the warmer weather can extend deeper into the fall than one would expect.

In addition, a phenominon called the MJO or Madden Julien Oscillation is now moving into phase 8. During this time of the year, this phase brings exceptionally warm, stable weather patterns to New England. Have the same phase 8 occur during the winter months and it brings the exact opposite, with very cold temperatures, and often times snow.

WeatherBell Analytics expert meteorologist Joe Bastardi explains this as feedback of the seasons. What brings us a warm September, is likely to bring the opposite come winter. In fact, the warmer temperatures are in September, the colder the following winter is likely to be. I have been following this theory for years, and most definitely have found it to have merit.

But for now, we’re not talking cold & snow. We’re just talking endless summer! I believe Boston has reached 90 degrees nine times this summer, so far. Today could be number ten. It would not surprise me if we hit another 2 or 3 times during September. This would bring the number of 90 degree days very close to the average amount for a summer season in Boston, which is 14 times. Also very close to my original forecast back in May of between 14 and 17 times!

After a warmer and drier than normal August, September seems to want to follow in its footsteps. There is a very strong signal from computer models of a much warmer than normal September this year for New England. September is typically one of our driest months.

As long as we don’t receive moisture from tropical storms, precipitation may come in below average. After a wet June, this would continue our drier than normal trend. This dry stretch, has prompted the NWS to place our region once again under a drought watch, with abnormally dry conditions.

Speaking of tropical storms, once advertised as a potential catastrophic hurricane threatening Florida and the east coast, Erika defied all computer models, and fizzled quicker than a cold glass of Ginger Ale. Persistant wind shear, and mountainous terrain over Cuba, tore Erika apart, and she could never recover from there.

This news brought a sigh of relief in that region. Storms like this would of resulted in billions of dollars of damage, loss of life, and higher insurance rates. This is not the time to let our gaurd down. We are now entering the peak of hurricane season.

I’ve said it once, and I will say it again, it only takes one storm to result in serious property damage and loss of life. The Atlantic Ocean has suddenly become more active, with Fred being the next named storm. I will keep everyone updated if any of these storms threaten New England, or anywhere along the east coast.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I am rating this week a 10 out of 10. This week will feature summer weather at its best! Expect hazy, hot and humid weather for the rest of today, with many areas approaching 90 degrees. Tonight will be warm and muggy with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Tuesday may start off very warm, but expect a refreshing sea breeze to cool off coastal locations, up to 5 miles inland back into the 70’s! I am not expecting any rain tomorrow. Watch for that cool front to move back north of us on Wednesday.

This will allow very hot weather to push back into eastern Massachusetts, for both wednesday and Thursday. I am expecting temperatures to warm up to between 90 and 95, with high levels of humidity. This may be the hottest days of the whole summer! The only relief would be found at the beaches, where afternoon seabreezes may keep it tolerable. Keep your air conditioners in until further notice!

Another back door cool front may cool coastal areas back down into the 70’s on Friday and Saturday. This will feel refreshing, especially after Wednesday and Thursday. Other than a scatterd thunderstorm late on Thursday, I do not see any widespread rain. In fact, temperatures and humidity will be back on the rise as we head straight through the Labor Day weekend, including Labor Day itself, which is looking hot and dry to me at this point, with highs near 90! Sounds more like Memorial Day!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about just how long our summer extravaganza will be around for. I will also have a forecast for the upcoming fall, as well as a fall foliage forecast. In the meantime, meteorological fall begins tomorrow, but don’t tell that to Mother Nature!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Humidity Breaks…Warmth Stays! 8/24/15

Hello! Hope everyone had a relaxing weekend! It wasn’t one of our most stellar weekends, but it wasn’t a total washout either. Most of the weekend was gloomy, with hit or miss showers, fog and drizzle. The weekend weather was a byproduct of the pattern that we are in.

I spent the weekend down on the Cape, and it could of been a lot worse. A short trip over to Martha’s Vineyard Friday evening, brought tropical conditions, patches of fog, and ominous skies. The 40th anniversary of the Oak Bluff’s fireworks display was certainly in jeopardy.

Just an hour before the show was to begin, towering cumulus clouds encroached the island. In what only could be called a small miracle, approaching downpours split right before they reached the island, one batch going west, and another east. Skies temporarily cleared, and the show was on!

Back on the mainland, we heard a torrential downpour moved through Falmouth. Another torrential downpour came through very early Saturday morning, then it remained mostly cloudy and on the muggy side for the rest of the day. If you ventured to the beach, there was some splashes of sunshine, but there was no more rain.

Sunday was an interesting day of weather. A cool front backed in from the northeast. This resulted in winds backing in from the northeast from the Boston area points northeast to Portsmouth, N.H. This resulted in a cooler day, with low clouds, fog, patchy areas of rain and drizzle.

Down the Cape, low clouds actually burned off to some tropical like conditions. As the sun bursted through the clouds, temperatures soared into the 80’s. However, this was short lived, as winds shifted, and a line of heavy showers moved through. This was then followed by low clouds, thick fog, and areas of drizzle.

As I mentioned above, this type of weather is the end result of the pattern that we’re in. Looking at the current weather map, a very deep trough of low pressure is plunging into the midwest.

This trough, has brought cooler, refreshing fall-like air to those locations. Looking at the pattern, you would think that this cool air is heading right to Boston, with refreshing fall-like temperatures. Well…not so fast!

This is late August. The summer pattern which I envisioned way back in May, has finally arrived! With the help of a deep trough in the midwest, the Bermuda High has strengthened enough to keep eastern New England in a muggy flow from the deep tropics, right up the east coast into eastern Massachusetts. This results in a few things.

First, our ocean temperatures continue to recover from the historic winter of last year. In fact, many locations along the east coast now have above normal ocean temperatures! This has helped the Bermuda High become the dominant player here in late summer.

Whatever cool air that builds up in Canada now, simply doesn’t have the strength to make it all the way to the east coast. The result is cold fronts that approach, weaken as they reach us. This alllows the warm to hot weather to continue here for the foreseeable future.

Unfortunately, it also means that muggy weather is never too far away. Because the fronts are dissipating right over us, this has been a focul point for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the last several days. If you are anticipating the cool breezes of autumn to come rushing in after a hot August…keep waiting!

Indications are, the summer pattern that took its own sweet time getting here, will be in no hurry getting out! As been well pointed out by one of my good weather watcher buddies from Hull, the seasons seem to be delayed, and extending into each other. I could see summery like weather extending well into September this year, at least until the autumnal equinox.

With the summery patterns finally settling in, this begs the question whether the tropical season is going to become active. So far, it has been a very quiest season in the Atlantic Ocean. This has no bearing as to how the rest of the season is going to pan out.

So far, it has been a very hostile environment for tropical storms to develop in the Atlantic. A strengthening El Nino, and an excessive amount of Saharan dust coming off Africa, has prohibited storms from developing. With all being said, it only takes one storm to cause death & billions of dollars of devastation.

There were only 4 storms in 1992, with Hurricane Andrew being the only major hurricane of the season.

This season needs to be monitored closely. Tropical development has suddenly increased over the last week. Hurricane Danny briefly intensified to category 3 status, before weakening over the weekend.

This storm will still need to be monitored closely the next several days. If the circulation can somehow make it into the Caribbean, it could strengthen once again close to the Bahamas. At that point, New England would need to pay close attention to this storm. Danny had a very compact core, and doesn’t want to give up so easily.

If this doesn’t happen, Erika is developing quickly on its heals. Erika has the potential to become a major hurricane, and threaten somewhere between Bermuda and the east coast. Please stay tunes for updates regarding this potentially dangerous storm.

After that, there are more waves to monitor forming off Africa, then heading west.

You might say, Pete, you just told me not to worry beacuse of the strong El Nino, and Saharan dust. True, but these things are extremely complicated, even to the experts! Hurricane Andrew also occurred in an El Nino year, and that turned into a category 5!

We are also entering the peak of hurricane season. The bell curve begins to increase dramatically now, peaking around September 10th on average, then only slowly diminishes until the end of the season. It could be the El Nino is pulsing, and temporarily weakened slightly, allowing tropical storms to come to life.

Whatever it may be, we must be vigilant here along the east coast for storms to develop. As I mentioned above, ocean temperatures in the Caribbean may be below normal, but they are that much above normal off of the east coast this summer.

I am becoming increasingly concerned for the east coast this season. As I mentioned above, the water off the east coast is running much warmer than normal. In addition, the Bermuda High is in a location that is capable of steering these storms towards the east coast.

The clockwise circulation around the high pressure, in conjunction with the counterclockwise circulation around the deep trough of low pressure to our west, may act as a channel, or alley way for these storms to travel up the coast.

Hurricanes and tropical storms are not my specialty, however, I am still very interested in these storms. You can be sure I will be following these storms extremely carefully and bring you the latest updates during hurricane season.

I am happy to report I network with some of the best meteorologists in the world, bringing you the latest up to date information on these devastating storms.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity, vacation and beach forecast. After a shaky start, I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. I thought these low clouds would have burned off by now. Clouds still may break later today for some splashes of sunshine towards sunset. There also may be some scattered showers around, but no washout is anticipated. Highs will mainly remain in the 70’s.

Expect some brief clearing early tonight, only to be followed by more clouds later. Very late tonight, and early tomorrow, there may be a shower or thunderstorm rolling through. Otherwise, expect muggy weather to continue, with lows in the 60’s.

Tuesday could be a volatile day. If you go to the beach, or plan to do some boating, keep an eye to the sky! Clouds should break, allowing for some sun. It will be warmer, with highs jumping up into the lower 80’s.

Later in the day, a line of thunderstorms may affect some communities. Some of these storms may become strong, so please listen to your local forecaster, or the NWS for the latest update on these storms.

There may be a few lingering storms early Tuesday evening, otherwise, watch for skies to gradually clear, and humidity levels to begin to drop. I won’t go as far to say to shut the a.c off, but it will slowly become more comfortable.

Watch for stellar weather for the period of Wednesday through Friday. Look for sunny skies, with lower levels of humidity. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 80’s. Just perfect summertime weather!

At this point, I am expecting a very nice weekend on the way. Expect full force summertime weather, with even warmer temperatures. Expect highs between 84 and 88 degrees, along with increasing levels of humidity.

There is a chance of a afternoon shower on Sunday, but this should not stop you from making any outdoor plans!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be letting you know just how warm it’s going to become to start September off. I will also have another tropical update, as well as your Labor Day weekend outlook!

In the meantime, enjoy the beautiful summer weather ahead, autumn is now less than a month away!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It’s Hot…But Still No Heat Wave! 8/17/15

Hello! It was another very summery week across much of the region.
A brief interuption Saturday evening brought severe weather to several communities just west and southwest of Boston.

If you live in one of these communities, such as Natick, straightlined winds and torrential rains brought near hurricane conditions briefly to these areas, resulting in quite a bit of damage.

Temperatures reached the low 90’s both Saturday and Sunday in Boston. With weather like this, people flocked to the beach, or seeked cooler temperatures in the mountains.

Unfortunately, I was at neither. Massachusetts held its No Tax holiday this past weekend. This meant I was trapped indoors all weekend selling appliances. While I certainly appreciated the business, I would of rather been somewhere cooler, enjoying the summer weather!

With the two weekend days reaching or eclipsing 90, where are now up to 8 days in Boston of 90 degree temperatures. On average Boston averages 14 ninety degree days during the summer. Last summer, Boston reached ninety 8 times.

Furthermore, Boston has not had an official heat wave in the city in over two years. The last official heat wave in the city was back in July, 2013, when we had a 7 day stretch where temperatures reached or exceeded 90! That year, we reached 90 degrees 18 times. And back in 2010, we reached it 24 times! A very hot summer indeed!

My official summer forecast called for a slightly hotter than normal summer this year, with Boston reaching 90 degrees between 14 and 17 times. A few weeks ago, I downgraded that number to between 10 and 13.

First things first, will Mother Nature finally deliver an official heat wave to us? Looking at the guidance from yesterday, I was almost certain we were going to do it today.

To be classified as an official heat wave, you need three consecutive days of 90 degree temperatures.

Just when you think it’s a slam dunk to hit 90, a weak, feeble seabreeze has developed in Boston this morning. This has halted the temperature at Logan Airport to 86 degrees.

If this seabreeze persists, Boston’s temperature may go up to 88 or 89, but would likely fall just short of 90! If you live a couple miles inland from the water, you can expect temperatures to already be close to 90, on your way up to 92 or 93 degrees this afternoon.

This is definitely the type of day that when you go to the beach, you will find some relief from the heat. Not much, but just enough to make a difference.

But the official observation site is not in Jamaica Plain, it’s at Logan Airport, which is surrounded by the water. This makes things very dicy when trying to forecast temperatures.

Believe me when I tell you, it has taken all summer for the ocean temperatures to finally warm up off of Boston. Despite the warmer temperatures, cooling seabreezes are still a threat, even on the hottest days. It’s been a long haul this summer, pulling out of the historic winter we experienced.

Some folks ask me what causes a seabreeze. There are two types of seabreezes. There’s a regional seabreeze, caused by the circulation of a storm or large high pressure.

Winds around a low pressure circulate counterclockwise, while a high pressure features a clockwise circulation. If strong enough, these winds will blow inland, bringing cooler temperatures, and occasionally low clouds, fog, and drizzle.

Local seabreezes are the type we experience many times during the spring and summer. Very much like we are experiencing today. This is a convection type of a seabreeze, where the land heats up quicker than the water.

As the warm air rises into the atmosphere, cooler, more dense are rushes in along the beaches, and sometimes up to 5 miles inland. As the sun sets, this process is reversed, and the wind will once again blow offshore at night.

If you spend anytime on the Cape during the summer, this is the reason why it can get so windy during the day, and then goes nearly calm at night.

A lot of this wind is due to the sun heating up the ground, and the cool air from the ocean rushing in underneath it. For many, this is a quite a refreshing wind, with temperatures many times some 10 to 15 degrees cooler on the Cape, than inland areas.

Getting back to the matter at hand, are we going to reach 90 today, or not? At this point, I would say it’s a 50/50 chance. There is a possibility that a land breeze develops later this afternoon, briefly driving the heat right into Logan Airport. If this happens, temperatures would suddenly jum into the lower 90’s, even at the observation sight.

If it doesn’t reach 90, this would prevent us from officially reaching heat wave status. With a stronger land breeze tomorrow, it looks like we should have no problem reaching the low 90’s. That would give us 1 more 90 degree day than last year. Whether we reach 90 or not, the hot stretch beginning this past Saturday, and will likely continue through this Friday, will certainly be the hottest in two years!

How many more 90 degree days can we get this year? Long range guidance continues to forecast a warm trend for us here in New England, possibly right into the first half of September! With possibly number 9 occurring later today, and another one very likely tomorrow, we most certainly will enter the revised forecast I made of between 10 and 13 days.

In addition, it’s not out of the question of a few more 90 degree days in September. If this happens, the summer could possibly approach the average of 14 days before all is said and done. Not too bad considering the awfully slow start!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to briefly update the tropics. As you know, the Pacific Ocean is flaring with activity this season. With an ongoing El Nino and positive PDO, hurricanes and typhoons are having no problem developing in the Pacific this summer. As we move deeper into fall, watch this activity only to intensify. No doubt a few monster storms will threaten the Philippines, Japan, and other areas of the western Pacific.

Because of El Nino, hurricane activity is almost non-existent here in the Atlantic. This does not mean we should let our gaurd down! There are some indications of some tropical development off of Africa.

These “waves” as they call them travel from east ot west across the southern Atlantic. If they can make it into the Caribbean, they often times develop into tropical storms and hurricanes.

The problem is that the environment is hostile for development this year down there. Water temperatures are well below average. In addition, upper level winds from El Nino shear the storms apart as they try to develop.

Despite this, WeatherBell’s long range & hurricane expert Joe Bastardi continues to wave the caution flag regarding this season. He has brought up countless of examples of seasons with a low number of storms, but one or two of them becoming devastating blows.

Well above average ocean temperatures just off the east coast is the perfect breeding ground for home brew development. This includes everywhere from the Gulf of Mexico, right up the east coast, including us here in New England!

It only takes one storm to cause death and destruction. I like to bring up 1992 as an example. I believe we only had 4 hurricanes that season, and only one major storm. It just so happened that storm was category 5 Andrew, which buzz sawed through southern Florida, destroying everything in its path!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity and summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week another 8 out of 10. It will turn out to be a very summery week overall. Today will be sunny and hot, with temperatures a couple degrees of either side of 90. A weak, feeble seabreeze may keep it just under 90 at the beaches, while it’s a couple to a few degrees above 90 just a few miles inland. It will be a very good day to be boating, with very low thunderstorm risk.

Expect a muggy night, with hazy skies, and lows slowly falling to near 70 in the city.

Tuesday will feature a continuation of hot, humid weather, with highs between 87 and 92 degrees. A small disturbance may bring a few scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. This is especially true across the interior, north and west of I495.

Wednesday and Thursday promises to bring a continuation of the heat, haze and humidity. Expect temperatures to mainly be in the 85 to 90 degree zone, along with humidity to boot. These should be another good 2 days to head to the beach. Hazy, warm and muggy conditions will be the rule both Wednesday and Thursday nights.

A cold front will slowly approach New England on Friday. Because of this, expect more clouds to build during the day. A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the Boston area during the afternoon.

Right now, it’s questionable how much rain is going to fall. I would say there’s a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms late in the day and overnight. At this point, I do not see a washout.

Unfortunately, this same cold front looks like it’s going to stall, and disolve right over the region this weekend. This means a couple things.

First, there will be a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms at any point during the weekend.

Second, a slightly cooler air mass may slowly filter into New England during the weekend. This means tempeartures may trend back to near normal, which is around 80.

After this, we have not heard of the last of the real hot stuff, as it may come back full force next week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new update on the tropics. I will also let you know how much longer our recent hot weather may be sticking around for. In the meantime, we may not officially reached heat wave status, but the dog days of summer have arrived!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Warmer Times Ahead! 8/10/15

Good morning! I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend! True, temperatures turned September-like, but for many, it was a refreshing break from the stifling humnidity experienced at the beginning of last week.

Saturday was about as good as it gets around here, with near 100% of the possible sunshine, and temperatures mainly in the 70’s. Sunday dawned with low clouds and a brisk northeast wind. Temperatures struggled through the 60’s at the beaches.

With such cool temnperatures, this allowed families on vacation to do something different, like going for a bike ride, playing tennis, or visiting another town.

It could of been a lot worse! At one point last week, computer models were predicting a full fledged nor’easter battering eastern New England!

You may ask, Pete, it’s summer, how can there be a nor’easter? This is a very good question. Actually, nor’easters can happen anytime out of the year…especially a year like this one! More typically, nor’easters are far more likely to develop anytime from October through April.

One of the reasons this is true, is because there is normally a greater temperature contrast during those months. The first ingredient you need for a storm to develop is a contrast between warm and cold air.

So the computer models were forecasting a nor’easter to develop, what happened to it? Well, it did develop, and turned into quite a storm. A slight shift in the steering currents at the last second, spared coastal New England a windswept soaking rain, along with very chilly temperatures this past weekend.

The cool, blustery weather we experienced yesterday was directly related to the storm out at sea. As the storm passed southeast of Nantucket, it interacted with a high pressure area north of New England. The pressure difference between the low pressure to our south, and the high pressure to the north, freshened winds from the northeast, especially along the coast. It was very much like a winter like set up, here in the summer.

Such has been the pattern for most of this summer. Other than a brief surge of heat at the end of July, and beginning of August, the summer has mostly been on the cool side. The fact that a summer nor’easter developed and threatened the region, did not surprise me.

The fact of the matter is, our historic winter pattern is still having a major influence on our summer pattern. A blocking ridge of high pressure has brought a record hot and dry summer to the Pacific northwest and western Canada. Downstream from this, the jet stream has been dipping unusually far to the south.

This has allowed multiple cool fronts to come sweeping down from eastern Canada, squashing any hot weather to our south here in New England. With the cool fronts pushing further south than normal, cool air can clash with hot air, allowing storms to form, even here in the summer!

In a more typical summer, this active jet stream is normally up around Hudson’s Bay…some 800 miles to our north!

With the abnormally warm ocean temperatures still in place off the Pacific northwest coast, similar weather patterns can be expected for the foreseeable future.

In fact, long range computer model guidance is indicating that this abnormally warm water may persist through the upcoming winter. This could have major implications as to what kind of winter we are likely to experience here in New England.

There are many forces jockeying for position as we move towards autumn. Along with the warm ocean in the north Pacific (also called a positive PDO), a very impressive El Nino off of South America is also going to be a major factor. On top of all this, ocean temperatures in the north Atlantic, close to Greenland, are plummeting.

Expert long range meteorologists say they have never seen this type of set up before. It’s still too early to say what kind of winter where in store for, but I will say this, it’s going to be quite fascinating to see how this all plays out!

A few friends have been asking me what my thoughts are for the upcoming winter. I told them it’s atill too early to tell from now. What I did say, is that just statistically speaking, a repeat of last winter is highly unlikely.

However, from what I am seeing at this point, I would not write anything off. This includes another very active winter, with above average snowfall for much of New England.

I could also see the El Nino overwhelming the pattern, flooding the country with warmer than normal temperatures, resulting in more rain than snow, especially here along the coast.

One thing for sure, I will be studying all of these natural forces carefully over the next several weeks, especially as we approach autumn next month.

I brought this up last week, and I will again pose the question again. Does all this discussion mean that summer is on its way out? If you are a fan of summer, you will be happy to know that the answer is…no!

Short range guidance is now forecasting a relaxation to the current pattern, allowing some genuine summer weather to overwhelm New England!

With all that being said, there are quite a few folks out there who absolutely love this type of summer weather. And in fact, the summer pattern, as it has been, has produced very comfortable temperatures for many. Even a below normal regime this time of year still yields warm enough temperatures for many to enjoy.

Sure, some like it hotter, but the majority of us have been pleased with the weather. Mother Nature is never going to make everybody happy…or is she?

Just when you think where on the back end of summer, talk of back to school, football and fall plans, summer wants to kick it into high gear! Long range computer guidance is jumping all over a sudden pattern change for the last two weeks of August. If teleconnections line up, we could have quite a endgame to summer this year!

So what’s it going to take to get the heat up here into New England? First, computer models are showing a demise of the pesky Greenland Block. This will help lift the trough of low pressure north, out of New England.

Second, a deep trough of low pressure is forecasted to develop across the western part of the country. This is important. As this happens, it will shift the jet stream north of our latitude, allowing a bubble of hot weather to push into New England. This may bring above normal temperatures to much of New England, possibly for the last two weeks of August!

Now for your weekly summer vacation, beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Expect a pleasant day for your Monday. Expect plenty of sun, along with warmer temperatures than yesterday. However, there still will be a sea breeze along the coast. Temperatures may warm up to the low 80’s inland, but fall back to around 75 at the beaches.

Watch for dry conditions tonight, with lows in the mid 50’s in rural areas, to low 60’s in urban locations.

We are nearing the peak of the Perseid Meteor Shower. Astronomical guides say it will be peaking August 11th and 12th. This is a particular good year to view the meteors because we are in between moon cycles, so there will be no added moonlight to interfere with the viewing.

The only problem is we will be having a strong system moving in from the west. If we’re lucky, there is a chance skies will clear out later Tuesday night to see the meteors!

At this point, Tuesday looks like it will be the most unsettled day of the week. Expect a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms to move across the region from west to east during the day. I would say the wettest part of the day would be from noontime to around 8 PM. It will be somewhat more muggy, with highs mainly in the mid 70’s.

As mentioned above, after early rain, skies may try to clear later on at night to be able to view the meteors. If they don’t, the meteors will also be peaking Wednesday night, which looks much better for viewing. I hope that works out for everyone!

Wednesday will be a much better day. However, a follow up system may fire up a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. I am not expecting a repeat of last weeks unusual hailstorm. However, with cold air aloft, there may be more scattered reports of some hail falling. This will not be a washout by any means. Temperatures should warm up to the low 80’s.

Expect warmer and drier weather to move into New England for the period of Thursday through Sunday. Thursday & Friday look like beautiful beach & boating days! Epect sunny skies and very warm temperatures, with high temperatures mainly in the 80’s.

Saturday and Sunday also look very warm & summery, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80’s. The only thing I see right now is the chance for a afternoon or evening summer shower or thunderstorm on Saturday.

Sunday may be slightly cooler, but drier. It looks like a beautiful day for the Falmouth Road Race. Highs will mainly be in the low 80’s. Good luck to all the runners!!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have an update on our hurricane season. I said I would do that this week, but there is no tropical activity in the Atlantic right now. I will also have a new summer vacation forecast, and let you know just how hot I think it will get! In the meantime, pack those thoughts of winter away for now…it’s time for summer to shine!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Hot Start…Cooler Finish! 8/3/15

Hello! As far as summer weekends go, this was perhaps as good as it gets around these parts. Both Saturday, and Sunday featuring temperatures around 90, with humidity levels under control. Some areas experienced a brief pop up thundershower on Saturday, otherwise most areas remained dry.

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of heading to one of my favorite summertime spots, Nantasket Beach! Once again, I’m very grateful I have very good friends living in some of the best spots in New England, for me to visit!

It was a beautiful day, with deep blue skies, amidst some passing fair weather cumulus clouds. Temperatures were very beach like, with highs in the upper 80’s. The one thing that my fiends and me noticed at the beach yesterday, was how clear the water appeared.

Nantasket Beach certainly benefits from facing the open Atlantic Ocean, allowing a self cleaning cycle of 2 high tides and 2 low tides on a daily basis. Yes, there are many beautiful beaches in New England, but few carry the charismatic beauty of Nantasket!

Overall, last week may have been the warmest week of the summer. If you picked it for vacation, great job! So we confirmed it was hot, but did Boston make a heat wave? No! Boston eclipsed 90 degrees 3 times last week, but not in consecutive fashion. To be classified as an official heat wave, the official observation location must reach 90 degrees for 3 days in a row.

Boston’s Logan airport reached or exceeded 90 on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday. Incredibly, Boston only reached 89 on Friday. Had Boston reached 90 on Friday, a formidable 4 day heat wave would of been the outcome.

Because of that minor interuption, Boston still has not observed an official heat waves in over two years now!

Certainly some interior locations did reach or eclipse 90 degrees on 4 or 5 days in a row…not bad!

While on the beach, many of my friends were asking me some very intelligent, challenging questions. We talked about last winter, if another big winter is on the way this year, hurricanes, and what’s going on with our summer pattern this year.

First, you will be relieved to know my answer about this upcoming winter. Of course, it’s still too early to be sure, however, I am fairly confident we are not going to see a repeat of last winter coming up this year. Just by statistics alone, the odds favor against it.

However, I also said to be on gaurd, once again, of the possibility of a several powerful nor’easters. Whether these storms bring more rain than snow, or vice versa, is difficult to say from now. I will be discussing more about the prospects for the upcoming winter as me move deeper into the upcoming fall.

You will also be glad to know my response to our hurricane season. With the Pacific Ocean in a warm cycle, and Atlantic colder, hurricanes are not developing on our side of the continent.

In addition, a strengthening El Nino is increasing the upper level westerly winds. This shears hurricanes apart, not allowing them to develop to their fullest extent. Plumes of Saharan dust blowing off Africa is also inhibating development.

This is all good news for folks living along the atlantic coastline. Does this mean where in the clear? No!!

We are only now entering the most active period of hurricane season. From now, until the middle of September, is when we have to be on gaurd for hurricanes.

Despite the cold look in the tropics, ocean temperatures continue to be above normal near the atlantic coast, right up to New England. This means, as we move deeper into the season, we must be on gaurd for tropical development right off our coast.

Remember, it only takes one storm resulting in billions of dollars in damage, & loss of life.

This year reminds of 1992. In that year, we had very little hurricane activity, that is until category 5 Andrew formed and buzz sawed through southern Florida in late August. I believe this was one of the only hurricanes that developed all season!

How about the pattern for the rest of the summer seaon? Well, you will be surprised to know that July actually ended up as an above average month in temperatures, with below average precipitation. This was greatly influenced with the late surge in heat late in the month. Overall, with June being so chilly, summer is still running a bit cooler than average across much of the region.

How is August shaping up? Well, we certainly got off to a hot start, with Boston reaching 90 on Saturday, and near it Sunday. We may even hit 90 again today, and come close tomorrow! So it certainly has been a very warm to hot run here.

So does this mean August is going to be a hot month? According to some of the latest long range guidance, this does not seem to be in the cards. It certainly looks warmer than last August, when we didn’t even hit 90 once! I also remember many chilly nights last year in August, with some spots falling into the 40’s!

So what’s normal around here for August? High temperatures start out in the mid 80’s and begin to cool to mid 70’s by months end. We typicall receive around 3 and half inched of rain during August, much of this deriving from thunderstorms and cool fronts. Some years, a tropical system or hurricane can drench the region with many inches of rain.

Right now, from what I am seeing, I am forecasting near to perhaps a bit below average amounts of rain here in August. Overall, with typical ups and downs, I believe August will average close to normal temperatures, with no significant departures. This also means we should hit 90 about 3 or 4 times this month.

Also, as a reminder, we also begin to lose daylight faster, as the days become shorter heading into September and the autumnal equinox.

After a hot start here in August, long range computer models continue to advertise a significant cool down for a week or two. Later, the warm to hot weather may build back into New England the second half of August into the start of September.

Why the rapid changes this summer? I still believe it is due to conflicting teleconnections. A strong El Nino this summer argued for many days of 90 degree temperatures. However, the abnormally warm patch of water is persisting off the Pacific northwest coast. This promotes a building ridge of blocking high pressure in the northwest, and into western Canada.

Because of this, cool shots from Canada, have been sweeping into New England from eastern Canada. Occasionally, this would relax, allowing surges of heat from the southeast, to sneak up into the Boston area.

This type of pattern looks like it will continue for the rest of the summer. The end result looks like a fairly normal summer around here, with average temperatures, and precipitation.

Now for your weekly summer vacation and outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect very warm to hot weather for the rest of your Monday, with highs between 86 and 90 across the area. With a cold front slowly approaching from the west, winds will increase out of the southwest, and a few thunderstorms will threaten western areas of New England. If you are boating, be aware of the increasing wind, and keep an eye to the sky.

Tonight will turn increasingly muggy, and the threat of showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase across the rest of eastern Massachusetts. Lows will be near 70.

Tuesday may start off with some showers and thunderstorms, but expect this to clear out by noontime, allowing for a period of sun during the afternoon. When the sun appears, it may destabilize the air enough resulting in a few more scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. It will be on the hot and muggy side once again, with highs between 87 and 92.

Any storms should end tomorrow evening, allowing for a bit dryer air to filter in from the northwest.

Wednesday and Thursday look like pleasant summer weather, with sunshine, mixing with afternoon fair weather clouds, especially across the interior. With the air a bit unstable, it may touch off some scattered showers and thunder across the area. I’m not anticipating any washout. Highs will be in 78 to 84 degrees.

Right now, Friday through Sunday look cooler, and perhaps a bit unsetted at times. However, at this point, I’m not expecting long stretches of rainy weather. Rather, there may be a period of rain late Friday into Saturday morning. Temperatures should hold mainly in the 70’s. Thereafter, clouds may clear, allowing for a pleasant Satuday afternoon.

At this spoint, Sunday looks like a mixture of sun and afternoon fair weather clouds. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than what many would like. Remember, below normal temperatures this time of the year still results in pleasantly warm readings! Highs should hold between 68 and 75 degrees, warmest temperatures near the beaches!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking a bit more in detail about hurricane season. After all, we are heading into the heart of hurricane season. I will also have your new vacation forecast. In the meantime, expect a bit of everything this week, in other words, typical New England weather!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Yup…It Gets Hot In July! 7/27/15

Hello! I hope everyone had a great weekend! The weather certainly didn’t turn out the way I had envisioned it. When I made my forecast last Monday, I was counting on the warm weather to surge back into New England. As has been the case this summer, that stubborn Greenland Block slowed things down, keeping us on the cool and cloudy side.

Many said it felt more like fall. Saturday featured some splashes of sun, but it was downright chilly, with many locations not even getting out of the 60’s!

Sunday felt warmer, but it was only because it became more muggy. Believe me, as we move deeper into the upcoming week, we are going wishing for that pesky sea breeze to kick in!

Such has been the case so far this summer. Rapid changes has been the theme. Up to this point, an established summer pattern has yet to establish itself. It seems my forecasts are good for 3 days out this summer. After that, things go haywire, with an entirely different outcome from what I was forecasting.

The culprit? As I mentioned in last week’s post, conflicting teleconnections. Nothing has established itself as a reliable teleconnection this summer. In fact, the whole global system is in atmospheric flux. After the historic winter here in New England, the atmosphere has been trying to rebound from this for what seems like months now.

Early in the spring, computer models were hinting that the Bermuda High would be a more dominant player this summer. This would build the eastern ridge up into New England, delivering a slightly hotter than normal summer for us here in Boston. With a strengthening El Nino, I believed these two forces were going to deliver the goods.

There is a method to my madness. While some of my forecasts are based on intuition and natural occurrences, I also do quite a bit of research on past patterns, to help me forecast the future. After doing research on past El Ninos summers, I learned that 4 out of the last 5 summers which featured a surging El Nino, ended with above average number of 90 degree temperatures.

However, each year is different, and not one analog can be counted on as an exact match in any given year. How true this is, for this summer. A strengthening El Nino, above average ocean temperatures along the eastern seaboard, can not overcome the other conflicting teleconnections occuring right now, simultaneously.

As been the case the past several years, a positive PDO (Pacific Decadel Oscillation), means warmer than normal ocean temperatures off the Pacific northwest coast. In this case, the temperatures have been exceptionally warmer than normal.

This has been promoting a huge, blocking ridge of high pressure across this region for the better part of two years now. This block was also one of the main factors that brought us our historic winter!

Had this warm water not been in place, or even diminished this summer, New England would certainly of baked, in one of the hottest summers ever!

Two other teleconnections are at play here, which may have a significant impact on our future weather patterns. First, is the Greenland Block. What was a non-factor last winter, has suddenly showed up here in the summer.

Most guidance pointed towards a cooler than normal summer in the middle of the country. This was just about a lock. However, signals were mixed here in New England.

Some were pointing hot, while other guidance was indifferent. While understanding this in the spring, I knew it was somewhat of a toss up for us here in New England, as it could of gone either way. As it turned out, it has been a cooler than normal summer for many here in New England so far.

What about the rest of the summer? Could it still turn around for us to at least come close to my original thinking? It’s a longshot, but not impossible!

To finish July, we have at least 2 or possibly 3 ninety degree days on the way this week. This will bump us up to 4 or 5 for the year. If we get another 3 or 4 in August, that leaves us left with September.

Here’s where it gets tricky. I was listening to a meteorological discussion this morning narrated by Joe Bastardi, of WeatherBell Analytics. Along with Bastardi, Joe D’aleo are two of the best long range seasonal forecasters in the business.

So what did Joe say this morning? Well, it’s a bit complicated, so I will try and explain it to you as easy as possible. He said to possibly prepare for another surge of summer weather as we head into the later half of August, and especially September.

He also said that the same conditions that are delivering a coolish summer, is going to change come September, and possibly bring us a very warm spell, due to seasonal feedback.

This does not entirely surprise me. A couple years ago, we had an outrageous heat wave in September. We normally average one ninety degree day in Septmber. It’s not out of the question we pull out 2 or 3 this year.

Don’t forget, as I said in early June that summer had not officially arrived, the same goes for first two thirds of September, and that autumn has not officially arrived, until the equinox.

Keeping this in mind, after a very slow start to summer, it’s not entirely possible that we end up with between 10 and 13 days of 90 degree temperatures this summer after all!

How does all of this play out further down the line? As mentioned before, strong El Ninos tend to bring warm & wet winters to much of the northern part of the country, including us here in New England.

However, there are three other teleconnections are at play here, which are conflicting against the El Nino, and may have a significant impact on our future weather patterns.

First, is the abnormally warm patch of warm water off the Pacific northwest coast. Should this persist, it would continue to promote a blocking ridge of high pressure into western Canada.

Two other teleconnections which may have a significant impact on our future weather patterns, is the negative AMO, and the Greenland Block. The first one will most likely have a greater impact than the latter.

What was a non-factor last winter, The Greenland Block has suddenly showed up here in the summer. I talk about the Greenland Block quite a bit, because at times, it can influence our weather greatly. However, as noted from last winter, you don’t need a Greenland Block to bring deep snows to our region.

Last winter, the Greenland Block was non-existent. If the Greenland Block is more prevalent this winter, it may interact with the El Nino to produce quite an interesting winter here in New England.

Of greater importance, is the sudden emergence of the negative AMO (Atlantic Meca-decadel Oscillation) developing. You can look at this as being the opposite of what’s happening in the Pacific. Much colder than normal water has developed in the north Atlantic.

Some long range meteorologists are suggesting that this may be a larger scale shift in ocean temperatures that will plunge Greenland, and areas of northern Europe into bitterly cold winters. This would promote sea ice to begin to accumulate again. It could also mean colder winters for us here in New England in the coming years.

One more factor, which I still need to do more research on is the solar cycles. Many believe we are entering a solar minimum cycle (less solar energy from the sun) over the next two decades. The last ime this cycle occurred was back in the 1600’s, when it was called “The Little Ice Age.”

Ok, I’m getting ahead of myself here. It will anything but a little ice age around here this week!

Now for your weekly summer beach & boating forecast! I am rating this week a 9 out of 10, weighted heavily on a possible beautiful summer weekend coming up!

Expect warmer weather today, with a mixture of sun and clouds, expect temperatures to warm up into the mid to upper 80’s. Later in the day, a few scattered thunderstorms may pop up, so keep an eye out for this.

I do understande that some showers are moving across the Cape today. Hang in there, it gets better from here! It will be warm and increasingly muggy tonight, with lows dropping into the 60’s.

Tuesday will see even warmer weather moving in, with highs between 85 and 90. If we don’t get a sea breeze, Boston could nudge 90. Again, there may be a pop up shower or thunderstorm. Nothing more than typical afternoon summer stuff due to the heating of the day.

Be prepared for possibly the hottest day of the summer on Wednesday! Get your air conditioners ready! Triple H weather for sure. Expect a hazy, hot and humid day, with high temperatures around 96 degrees. Hazy and uncomfortable weather will continue Wednesday night.

Depending on how much sun we have on Thursday, it may be another hot day, with highs in the lower 90’s. A strong thunderstorm may break the intense heat later in the day or evening time.

Friday and Saturday will be less hot, but still very warm and drier, with highs between 85 and 90. These will be Perfect beach days if you’re lucky enough to be on vacation! Very warm to hot weather may continue into Sunday, with highs nearing 90 again, under mainly dry conditions.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing what type of weather we should expect for the month of August. I will also review how July turned out. Also expect a new vacation, beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the summer heat, snow days aren’t too far behind!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

We Finally Hit 90! What’s Next?

Good morning! I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy another summery weekend! It turned out to be a very warm, to hot weekend across much of the region. In fact, Boston finally reached 90 degrees for the first time this season yesterday! Yes, it’s been a long, slow journey to reach this threshold this summer. The weekend finished off with some severe thunderstorms traversing parts of the area last evening. As is typical with summer storms, some folks get hit hard, while others wonder what all the fuss is about.

I had a very active weekend. On Saturday, I participated in the 15th annual “Seek the Peak” event held up at Mt. Washington, in New Hampshire. This is a hike-a-thon to help raise money and awareness to the weather observatory on the summit.

Hiking Mt. Washington is not for the faint of heart. It’s rugged terrain, steep trails, harsh weather conditions, makes it one of the most challenging hikes in North America. If you enjoy hiking, and don’t mind the elements, there is no better mountain.

However, be forwarned, Mt. Washinton is not a beginner mountain. To reach the summit, you have to be fit, athletic, and possess a drive to complete a goal. I’m not saying that I am a expert hiker, by no means, but I am physically fit enough, and do have knowledge of the weather, and terrain, for what it takes to make it to the top. Even so, the hike was very challenging, and left me mentally and physically exhausted.

The weather on Mt. Washington can be severe. Many of people have lost their lives on this mountain. They don’t say “home of the worst weather on earth” without a reason! Winds have gusted up to 231 M.P.H.! The strongest ever recorded in the world! Besides the wind, unexpected blizzards, hail, severe thunderstorms, life threatening bitter cold temperatures, dense fog, are just some of the hazzards one could run into while on the mountain! Therefore, this makes this location, one of my favorite places on earth!

With all that being said, the majestic views from the top of Mt. Washington should give you enough motivation to reach the peak! If you can’t hike the mountain, you can take the auto road up to the summit. This has it’s own hazzards, so I would recommend having the professional staff there drive you up for a small fee. It’s worth it, their vehicles are specifically altered to be able to withstand the steep gradient.

For my hike, dense fog was an issue. Visibilities dropped to less than 50 ft, so seeing where I was going was a problem. Still, I’m grateful it was mild enough, that heavy winter clothing was not necessary. Winter weather can occur on this mountain 12 months out of the year. Yes, even in the summer!

The rest of my weekend was spent at my home away from home at my sister and brother in law’s house here in coastal New Hampshire. I can’t think of a better place to relax and recover from my hiking adventure on Saturday!

So now that Boston has officially reached 90 degrees, is this the start of a torrid second half of summer? If you love hot summery weather, this doesn’t appear to be in the cards this year. You may say, Pete, with the oceans finally warming up, isn’t our warmest weather of the year still ahead of us?

This is true…however, with the summer getting off to such a slow start, I don’t believe that we will reach the number of 90 degree days I had originally forecasted back in May. If you forgot, let me refresh your memory. In my summer forecast, I had planned on Boston reaching or exceeding 90 degres somewhere between 14 and 17 days.

So far, yesterday was only Boston’s first 90 degree reading. Today, will be the second. After that, it appears that the same old pattern is going to reestablish itself across New England. Does this mean time to break out the jackets? No, because we are statistically entering the warmest part of the year, even below normal temperatures can mean very pleasant weather.

Can we still reach double digit 90 degree days, say 10 to 12? It’s still possible, but at this point, unlikely. With August just around the corner, time is starting to run out. If you go by just averages, August typically reaches 90 degrees approximately 3 or 4 times on average, and September about one time on average. We shall see, it’s still not impossible.

A couple years ago, Boston had a full blown heat wave in September, with several days with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90’s! But that was definitely the exception, and not the rule. The long range computer models are showing a continuation of near to even slightly below normal temperatures for August. Then possibly a turn to warmer than normal weather for September. For this reason, I am revising my total 90 degree days to between 7 and 10.

The good news in all of this, is that the patterns may stabilize as we head into late summer and early fall, bringing us stretches of dry, comfortable weather. What I’m saying is that summer is not over! There still is going to be periods of warm to even hot weather well into September!

So what happened? Well, I wish there was a clear cut answer to this question. It’s complex. First, coming off of the historic winter we had, this was obviously a major obstacle for Mother Nature to overcome. Our ocean temperatures plummeted to such low temperatures, that it has taken until now for them to even recover just to average.

Second, we have that persistant abnormally warm ocean water off the Pacific northwest coast. This has promoted a strong ridge of high pressure in that part of the country. Downstream from this, a trough of low pressure, with cool temperatures and periods of heavy rainfall has kept temperatures below normal for the most part. Furthermore, the Bermuda High has been displaced further east than I originally envisioned, and has not been as dominant teleconnection as I thought it would be.

In addition, ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic have turned much colder than recent years. This may have induced a summertime Greenland Block, buckling the jet stream in New England. Every time the hot weather attempts to surge into New England, the Greenland Block strengthens, and surpresses the heat back to our south. It’s really amazing how Mother Nature works.

On top of all these factors, a major climatic event is beginning to unfold in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is developing, and many computer models are indicating that this may be the strongest event ever! Get used to it, we are going to be hearing a lot about this natural phenominon over the next several months.

El Nino is when trade winds slacken, allowing a tongue of warm water to develop off the South American coast. In this case, the water is unusually warm for so early in the event. When an El Nino occurs, it typically begins to develop around Christmas time, hence the name El Nino, or baby Jesus. Later in the winter, if El Nino intensifies further, it can lead to widespread extreme chaotic weather conditions across the earth.

My friend Barbara recently pointed out to me that it snowed on top of Hawaii’s Mauna Kea’s summit! People are surprised to hear that it occasionally does snow on top of this 14,000 ft mountainin during the wintertime…but in July? Even I was shocked!

Meteorologists and scientists are concerned about this El Nino because it has already strengthened to major category, and it’s only July. If this El Nino continues stengthen, it will become the strongest event in recorded history.

Is the El Nino influencing our summer patterns. I would say yes, without a doubt. Back in May, I did not expect El Nino to become so strong, so early. It’s possible with the Pacific Ocean becoming so warm, the North Atlantic has in turn become very cold, to possibly offset the two extremes. This may in turn may have altered the jet stream which has not allowed hot weather to become established in New England. It’s hard to say exactly, but years with El Nino tend to favor coolish weather here in New England.

At this point. it’s very difficult to say what kind of impact El Nino is going to have on our upcoming winter. In strong El Nino events, the sub-tropical (warm/wet) jet stream typically becomes dominant, with the polar (cold/dry) jet retreating into Canada. This type of scenerio would result in a warmer winter here in Boston, with more rainstorms rather than snow.

However, if the unusually warm water persists off the Pacific northwest coast, it may lead the way to a very atypical El Nino event. With high a high pressure ridge in northwest America, it may lead to yet another very interesting winter here in New England. Of course this is all speculation at this point, and can change radically as we head deeper into the fall months.

Now for your weekly summer beach & boating forecast. I will rate this week a solid 7 out of 10. Expect another hot and humid day in much of the region today, with high temperatures reaching the low 90’s in many locations. Another round of thunderstorms may visit some communities later this afternoon, but these will be widely scattered in nature. Any thunderstorms will diminish overnight, this will lead to a warm, with lows in the upper 60’s.

If we can enough sun tomorrow, temperatures may make another run at 90 in some spots. If it does reach 90, it will be an official heat wave…how about that! I will go on the conservative side, and call for temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 80’s. As a cool front approaches, watch for the possibility of more scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This will mark the leading edge of a significant air mass change.

For the period of Wednesday through Friday, expect cooler, drier air to be the rule. Early morning sun will lead to billowing afternoon cumulus clouds. Most areas will be dry, but I can’t rule out a brief scattered shower or thundershower during the afternoon. This is especially true across interior New England, where the air will be most unstable. Expect a light to perhaps moderate chop on the water if you plan on being on a boat.

Right now, this cool pocket of air appears as if it will shift offshore as we head into the weekend. This will allow temperatures to warm back up to near, to perhaps above seasonal levels, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. This should make for another great beach and boating weekend! Most of the weekend looks dry. There is a small chance of a shower on Sunday as a weak disturbance moves through the area, but I would not cancel any plans at this point.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reporting on some additional unusual weather events happening now in other parts of the world. I will also have another update on our continuously changing summer patterns, as well as your beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, they say the best way to make progress in something is to just start. In our case, will our first 90 degree temperatures be the start of something special?

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Close…But No Cigar! 7/13/15

Hello! I hope everyone was able to get out to enjoy the summery weather this past weekend! It was a classic summer weekend, with temperatures reaching the upper 80’s on Saturday. It got even hotter on Sunday, with many communities touching, or slightly exceeding 90 by a degree or two.

Many communities, except where they take the official reading at Boston’s Logan airport! Sunday was supposed to be the big coming out party for Boston to reach 90 degrees for the first time this summer. Unfortunately, Mother Nature has other plans for Boston, as the high temperature only got to 89!

True, other parts of the city, just inland away from the water did hit 90, or even a little better. But, where the official temperatures are recorded, it was close…but no cigar!

Some may say, Pete, who cares!! Whether it hits 90 or 89, what’s the difference! It’s still very warm and summery! To this I say, you’re right. It really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. There are so many more important things in life to worry about.

However, when we talk about Boston’s climate, statistics and recod keeping, these things do matter very much to meteorologists, climatologists, and weather enthusiasts such as myself.

Why, you ask? Well, we actually find it quite fascinating. Personally, it makes a big difference to me. Especially considering how my summer forecast called for between 14 and 17 days of 90 degree heat this summer. I rate how hot summers are, by how many times we reach 90 degrees.

How has Boston been doing so far? Terrible!! It hasn’t even hit 90 once yet at Logan! To be sure, Boston beats to its own drum when it comes to record keeping and weather statistics. It’s located in a very quirky spot.

First, it’s practically on a peninsula, with ocean water surrounding the location. This modifies the temperatures in winter, and cools it in the summer.

Second, Boston’s latitude places it to be influenced by may different climates from across the region. This includes a cold, damp, maritme climate from the northeast. It’s also greatly influenced by a cold and dry air masses from Canada, as well as hot and humid weather from southern regions.

All of these forces, seemingly tend to converge right over the Boston area at any given point, at any given time, throughout the year.

What does all of this mean? Well, it means we live in a very changeable, complicated, and highly variable part of the world to try and forecast. This is why New England, and particularly the Boston area is where some of the best meteorologists in the country come to forecast!

This is not an excuse for my summer forecast. Obviously, that forecast has not worked out, so far. To refresh everyone’s memory, I forecasted between 14 nad 17 days of 90 degree temperatures this summer. So far, we have had a grand total of…zero!

Normally by this time, we would of already had betwen 4 and 6 days of 90 degree temperatures. We are running well behind schedule in this department. It’s still early, but we’re nearing the breaking point. A revised second half of summer forecast will be the topic of next week’s post.

For some, that’s just fine! There are many folks out there who prefer a toned down version of summertime heat. Others, relish in it, trying to soak up as much heat as they can muster, before we begin to slide back into fall and winter.

To say it’s been a strange summer thus far is an understatement. Yes we had a nice summer weekend, but it should be! It’s mid July for heaven’s sake!

I don’t mean to get picky, but despite the nice weekend, we still had to put up with this pesky smoke in the sky. Did you notice how hazy the sky was yesterday?

This smoky look to the sky is a result of continuous wildfires burning some 3.000 miles away in British Columbia, Canada! The way the upper pattern is configured this summer, the jet stream winds are transporting this smoky sky, all the way into New England. And it has been happened several times now this summer.

In a normal summer, this haze could be attributed to ozone, and high levels of pollution blowing into New England from larger cities to our south. Typically, the Bermuda High Pressure becomes strong this time of the year.

Clockwise circulation around this high pressure area brings haze, high levels of humidity and ozone up into New England from cities to our south. Because of the unusual jet stream patterns, this has not been the case, so far this summer.

On a personal note, I had the pleasure of being invited to celebrate a friend’s surprise 50th birthday party, on the Spirit of Boston Saturday night. If you ever get invited to an event on this vessel, I would highly recommend going! It sets sale from the Seaport District, and cruises around Boston Harbor for a few hours.

The crew was super helpful, the food was very good, and the views of the city from the water were spectacular! Fortunately, the weather was perfect, with clear skies, and a warm breeze, everyone was out on deck to see yet another red fireball sunset!

While cruising out in the harbor, several friends were asking me about the current summer pattern. Some, were also asking me what I thought next winter would be like!

My answers surprised some. Our current summer pattern is a extension of the historic winter pattern, just the summertime version. A pool of well above noraml ocean temperatures persist off the British Columbia, and Pacific northwest coast.

This pool of unusually warm ocean water, promotes a strong ridge of high pressure in this area. Therefore, the bubble of hot & dry weather has been focused out in that part of the world. Another heat bubble has also been appearing in the southeast from time to time.

Here in New England, three forces are preventing that heat from overwhelming us. First, that ridge of high pressure (hot & dry) over the Pacific northwest, has forced the jet stream unusually north into northwest Canada. This ridge of high pressure is the end result of all the wildfires in western Canada.

It’s possible, that all this smoke in the air, is blocking the solar radiation from reaching its full potential, leaving temperatures some 5 degrees cooler than what they normally would be.

Downstream from this ridge, is a unusual deep trough (cool & wet) in the middle of the country. In fact, other than the Pacific northwest, and the southeast, it’s been a very cool summer across much of the United States.

Third, an unusual Greenland Block, here in the summertime, has forced the jet stream further south, sending periods of rain & cool weather into New England, several times this summer. This is unusual, because the Greenland Block typically occurs in wintertime.

As for th winter, I didn’t want to elaborate too much on this topic. While some long range computer models are beginning to forecast what we may expect, I feel that it’s still a bit too early to tell for sure what’s going to happen.

What I did say, is that we will be dealing with El Nino this winter. Just how strong this pool of warm water off South America becomes, it’s location, may determine what type of winter we will have.

Also, If that pool of warm water persists off the Pacific northwest coast into next winter, can have a profound effect how the winter will turn out here in the northeast.

Other factors, such as the blocking in the North Atlantic, temperatures in the Atlantic, and solar cycles, all will play a role next winter. I will discuss these details further, especially as we move towards August and September.

I will say this, right now it’s looking like about a 50/50 shot whether next winter turns out mild, or into another rough winter. If El Nino becomes too strong, it will overwhelm the pattern, leading to a stronger sub-tropical jet stream, with the polar jet retreating into Canada. This leads to a warm, wet winter, with many rainstorms.

However, if the El Nino weakens, and is centered more in the central Pacific, and if the warm water persists off the Pacific northwest coast, then…watch out! Stay tuned!

Now for your weekly outdoor beach & boating summer forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out 0f 10. Expect hazy sun today, with clouds tending to win out as we move deeper into the afternoon. It will become increasingly muggy out. Temperatures will make it into the low to mid 80’s, but dewpoints will climb into the mid 60’s. There may be a scattered shower, here and there. A sea breeze along the coast may also cool temperatures at the beaches into the 70’s.

Tonight will be muggy, with mainly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60’s. Again, with the humid air mass in place, a quick downpour can not be ruled out.

Tuesday will feature a continuation of muggy weather, with lots of clouds and some breaks of sun. There may be some downpours at any point during the day, however, the greatest chance will be later in the afternoon. This is true especially north and west of Boston. It doesn’t look like a great beach day, however, if you’re down the Cape, and the low clouds and fog burn off, it may be marginal.

Similar weather is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday, where we may experience some heavy downpours, along with the chance of thunder. It also will be very muggy. It will not be raining all the time, but going to the beach and boatng is risky, at best.

We may still be at risk of some rain Wednesday evening, otherwise, expect the cool front to begin slowly pushing off the coast. Expect cooler & drier weather to begin to slowly filter into the region.

Thursday may start off with early clouds, but watch for clearing skies from north to south. Winds will freshen out of the northeast, so there may be quite a chop east of Boston. It will be cooler and drier, with highs mainly in the 70’s.

Friday will feature similar weather, with mainly sunny skies and onshore winds, highs will generally be in the 70’s to very low 80’s.

As for next weekend, as the high pressure moves off to our east, a warmer return flow from the southwest shoud warm us up a bit. However, a front approaching from the north, may spark some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. It does not look like a washout!

This is important, as I will be hiking up Mt. Washington up in New Hampshire on Saturday, for the 15th annual Seek the Peak hike-a-thon! This hike is to bring awareness of the importance of the weather observatory at the summit. Wish me luck!

It should be a good weekend to head to the beach, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 80’s, along with increasing levels of humidity.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating the forecast for the second half of summer. I will also have your weekly beach and outdoor forecast. In the meantime, pack the cigars back into the box, the party is on hold!

Thanks for reading!

Pete