Finally…Genuine Summer Weather! 7/6/15

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed their 4th of July holiday weekend! I’m so happy that the trend became our friend this weekend! Overall, the forecast turned out quite well. Friday turned out to be a near top 10 day. While some areas saw rain for the fourth itself, others stayed completely dry, with clearing skies and low humidity just in time for the fireworks! The weather improved again for Sunday, with much of the region enjoying hazy sunshine with warm temperatures.

As for myself, I am enjoying a few days off down here on Cape Cod. Funny how things work out. Last year, on July 4th,  Cape Cod and much of the Boston area was lashed by tropical storm Arthur. This year, more inclement weather threatened the Boston area and especially the Cape, on the 4th of July again!

As luck would have it, an abrupt shift in the steering currents, suddenly shifted the storm east, sparing much of the area heavy rain. In fact, much of the Cape actually had a decent day on the 4th. The same area that supposed to receive the most rain that day! While enduring complete washout last year, we were able to sneak in a couple hours at the beach on Saturday!

Later in the evening, skies completely cleared, and humidity levels dropped, setting up perfect conditions for a spectacular fireworks display courtesy of the town of Falmouth.

While the weather broke our way this year, not everything was perfect. After the Falmouth fireworks show, we made it back home in time to catch the Boston Pop’s extravaganza, on the Esplanade. As much as I enjoyed the fireworks in Falmouth, there is nothing more patriotic than being in Boston, with the Boston Pop’s Orchestra playing the 1812 Overture, followed by the phenomenal fireworks display over the Charles!

We had a wonderful evening, celebrating my Mom’s birthday, and watching all the people celebrate America’s birthday! If you have never gone in person, I highly recommend everyone going at least once in their lives.

Yes, the crowds are large, but 99.9% of the folks are there to have a good time with families. The Boston Police dep’t teaming up with the Massachusetts State Police, along with many other high enforcement agencies, do a fantastic job to make sure everyone is safe, and has a good time!

After such a harsh winter, people were ready to celebrate! With all the talk of another washout, folks were determined to make it happen. I’m not saying the power of positive thinking did it, but I’m sure it didn’t hurt. I believe it was Mother Nature’s way of saying that she’s till in charge here, and if she wanted to let things go our way this year, she will have the power to do it, and only her.  As things turned out, she did side with us, sparing us the rains predicted for fireworks time.

However, she certainly didn’t leave us off the hook entirely. On Twitter, I had read many amateur meteorologists warning that it may not be the best of nights for fireworks in Boston. Apparently, there is a small channel of winds right where the fireworks explode, that normally carries the smoke away from the beautiful shells. These hard working folks were on to something, as they correctly forecasted that these winds will drop to calm, right at the time of the display.

The end result? Well, they certainly were still incredible. However, as the first fireworks exploded, a large plume of smoke developed. As more fireworks went up, the smoke only became more dense, to the point where many of the beautiful colors were being blotted out. After such a uplifting performance from the orchestra, it was ironic Boston’s weather had the last say…again.

Typically, after a cool front passes in the summertime, the following day is sunny, with deep blue skies. This was the case yesterday, except for one small exception. Smoke, from wildfires, burning way out in Alberta, Canada actually carried by jet stream winds made it all the way into New England yesterday!

This gave the sky a smoky appearance, and actually was the main reason for the brilliant red fireball sunset yesterday. In fact, there has been so many wildfires up in western Canada this summer, and also several volcano eruptions, that I believe this is adding to the beautiful red sunsets we have been experiencing this year across much of the northeast.

What happens is aerosols and dust particles from these natural events, are refracting off the sun’s rays, resulting in beautiful sunsets and even sun rises. Whatever the case may be, we are the end recipient to this spectular show put on by Mother Nature.

So what’s next? Drought, wildfires, floods, extreme heat, unseasonably cool temperatures, we’ve just about seen it all this year! Here in New England, it’s no secret that summer has been almost non existent so far.

To this date, Boston still has not had a 90 degree reading. For those who enjoy hot & humid weather, I have some good news for you, at least for this week! However, this does not mean a heat wave is coming.

However, it does appear as if the Bermuda High is going to strengthen, and build west this week. This will finally help increase some heat and humidity into much of southern New England. Unfortunately, long range computer models do not sustain this brief summer surge.

As we move deeper into July, the unseasonably cool pool pocket of air located in the middle of the country, looks like it will once again slosh back into New England. Persistant above normal ocean temperatures off the Pacific northwest coast has resulted in a hot and dry weather pattern for western north America for the better past of two years now.

Downstream from this, is a deep trough (cool pool) of unseasonably cool and rainy weather patterns. So far, the Pacific Ocean temperatures are overpowering all other teleconnection out there. Therefore, I’m expecting a fairly average July temperatures, featuring some hot weather, oscillating with longer periods of cool weather. With frontal boundaries being close by, above average amounts of rain seems likely.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Expect mainly good beach boating weather this week, except perhaps on Wednesday. No heat waves, but certainly much warmer than what it’s been. Expect more smoky sunshine today, with warm temperatures into the lower 80’s. Look for another fireball sunset tonight, with smoky skies. Later tonight, temperatures will remain on the warm side, along with some fog developing across areas of the Cape.

Tuesday and Wednesday both will feature warm & increasingly muggy conditions. There is a threat of some scattered thunderstorms each day, but Wednesday has the higher chance of seeing significant rainfall. Temperatures will be very warm to possibly even hot, with highs mainly between 85 and 90.

For the balance of the week, expect mainly sunny and warm conditions for Thursday and Friday, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80’s, with drier air. Right now, the weekend is looking nice, with dry air, and temps in the 70’s along the coast, and 80’s inland. Enjoy the nice weather, as it may turn unsettled once again next week.

Well that’s about it for now. I apologize if the post seems abbreviated today. I’m having a devil of a time writing this on my tablet. In next week’s blog, I’m planning on updating my summer forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the summery week, patterns are just too unstable this year to count on anything permanent!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Trend, Has Not Been Our Friend! 6/29/15

Hello! I hope everyone had a peaceful & relaxing weekend! Once again, the weather turned very anomolous, with near winter like conditions here in the early part of summer. Yes, Saturday started out on the dry side, but increasing clouds and easterly winds later in the day, made you think that perhaps a storm was coming.

Sure enough, a full fledged nor’easter battered the region Saturday night through a good portion of Sunday, with gale force northeasterly winds, and 1 to 3″ of rain throughout much of the region.

Many communities experienced trees crashing down, and some were even without power! I spoke with my sister down the Cape yesterday, and she said it was like a tropical storm.

Adding to the misery, northeast winds blowing off of ocean temperatures which are still only in the upper 50’s, sent folks reaching for their blankets and space heaters. I even turned on my new electric powered fireplace for the first time!

While writing this post here in my weather bunker, I see the storm is finally beginning to release its grip on us. Drying westerly winds are breaking up the low clouds and splashes of sun are beginning to break through!

So, what’s next? Friends and family are becoming increasingly anxious, asking me what the heck is going on with this weather? Rightfully so. After a cooler than normal summer last year, a historic cold and snowy winter, and now nor’easters in late June, what is going here?

I wish I had all the answers. If I did, I wouldn’t be selling appliances for a living! The fact of the matter is, Mother Nature has been, and continues to put on a show like no other. There are so many complicated forces happening right now with our climate, I don’t think there’s a super computer in the world that can grasp the situation, let alone humans.

True, this has been going on since the beginning of time, but with the advancement in technology, we get to see it firsthand! It’s a mighty struggle, between humans wanting to know all the answers, and Mother Nature constantly changing the questions.

This year, we are once again at the mercy of Mother Nature. Extreme weather patterns began the year, with crippling snowfalls and extreme cold in the Boston area during late January and February.

March and April saw the cold linger, but with very little precipitation. After a much warmer and record dry May, you would think we would be on our way to a very warm to perhaps hotter than normal summer this year, right? Boy, have the tables turned on us here in June!

Things have abruptly changed,  with much cooler weather, along with several large rainstorms, essentially wiping out the moderate drought we had. In fact, this has been one of the most miserable June’s in recent memory. I should of known it was a bad omen when the start of June began with several days of high temperatures holding in the 40’s!

Moving forward into July, you could say the trend is not our friend! The summer patterns have essentially been established, and if you like hot weather, New England is being left out of the party!

Looking at the overall weather pattern, you could say that after a brief reprieve during May, the same old winter pattern we had this past winter, has re-established itself here in New England, perhaps with a twist. The twist being we now have a Greenland Block to go along with all of the other negative teleconnections.

This is not good news. Every time summery weather tries to spread into New England, the block fires up, sending cool and unsettled weather down from eastern Canada, and essentially squashing the heat from advecting into the region from the south.

Of course the majority of the problem stems back into the Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures continue to be well above normal off the Pacific coast and British Columbia. This is promoting a gigantic blocking ridge of high pressure in this region.

The downstream result is a unusually deep, cold, trough of low pressure in the center of the country. When the Greenland Block goes negative, it buckles the jet stream towards the east coast, resulting in winter like storms and cold weather, even here in the summer!

I knew we were going to be dealing with this deep trough of low pressure in the middle of the country. I was also counting on the Bermuda High pressure to strengthen at times and send hot weather up into New England. What I wasn’t expecting was for the Greenland Block to show up here in the summer time. This is normally a winter phenominon!

In my summer forecast, I explained how we need to see where these bubbles of hot weather, and pools of cool weather, were going to establish themselves. So far, the bubbles of heat have been in the Pacific northwest, and the southeast part of the United States. The cool pools have been centered in the nations heartland, and now, also spreading into much of New England from southeast Canada.

Other major players in the cooler regime, is a strengthening El Nino, a minimal solar cycle, very warm Pacific Ocean temperatures off Alaska, a cooling Atlantic Ocean, and an uptick in global volcanic activity.

All these forces are working in unison to establish a cooling cycle. Once the Atlantic ocean flips to its negative phase (cold), and the Pacific also crashes negative, global temperatures may really take a nose dive, leading some to believe a ice age is coming!

So, am I abandoning my summer forecast? Well, it’s certainly not looking good for hot weather around here so far. However, I am not ready to toss it out the window just yet, either. After all, we are only still in June.

I do believe, that once the ocean temperatures continue to warm, and the season matures, it will negate the Greenland Block somewhat, and will allow at least some of the hot weather in the southeast to make its way up the coast later in the season. At this point, it looks like it’s going to be a struggle. But, as last winter showed, things can change in a hurry!

What I am also concerned about, is with these certain global forces in place, is a continuation of this extreme pattern for the rest of this year. We can expect additional rapid changes from month to month, especially here in New England. I do see the potential for a period of hot weather later in July, and a tropical storm or hurricane later in the summer.

As the El Nino takes hold next winter, expect the extreme weather to shift out west to California, where a natural catastrophe is in the making. Whether or not the warm ocean persists off the Pacific northwest, may determine whether another tough winter is in store for us here in New England, or not.

Of more immediate concern, folks want to know what the weather is going to be like this week, and heading into the huge holiday weekend. If you a trend kind of a person, then this is not your friend!

As mentioned above, we are in a very unstable, unsettled weather pattern, which may continue for at least the first two weeks of July. The trend as of late has been to bring unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms every 2 to three days or so.

What is more troubling, the trend the past couple weekends has been to bring nor’easter type storms, with windswept rains and cold temperatures. However, if you look at the glass half full, instead of half empty, things may turn out a bit different.

As of this morning, there will be two more disturbances crossing New England this week. One will bring showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. That will clear out for a decent Thursday. Another disturbance may bring a slug of rain through on Friday. If we’re lucky, and things remain progressive, this may clear out in time, so we can enjoy a nice day for the 4th itself.

Now for your weekly summer beach and boating forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Expect more clouds than sun for the rest of this afternoon. It will be warmer than yesterday, with highs making it into the very low 70’s. There is a 10% chance of a brief afternoon shower, as the air becomes somewhat unstable.

If the skies clear this evening, check out the astronomical show! The planets Jupiter and Venus will be in the western sky at sunset, right next to each other! Later, expect clearing skies and cool temperatures, with lows in the 50’s.

Tuesday will start off with sun, then watch for some building clouds during the afternoon. It won’t be a bad day, with highs mainly in the 70’s. Clouds will thicken Tuesday night, and showers may develop towards morning, lows will be near 60.

Watch for some showers and thunderstorms for the first part of Wednesday, it will turn muggy, with highs in the upper 70’s. There might be a break, then the chance of more afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This looks to be an unsettled day overall. All acitivity should wind down early Wednesday evening with clearing skies, and comfortable temperatures.

Thursday should remain dry, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs near 80. Very slight chance some showers could clip south coast and Cape Cod.

Now for the holiday weekend. As mentioned above, timing is everything. We are in a very active weather pattern, and several sysytems will be close by, or traversing New England. At this point, today’s computer models are waffling back and forth, whether to keep it unsettled, or not. Some models are forecasting a wave of low pressure to develop south of New England and moving north towards Cape Cod on Friday.

If this is true, rain would develop from and spread from south to north. Rain could be heavy for a time, especially south of Boston on Friday. If this remains progressive, expect clearing skies Friday night. Right now, fingers crossed, 4th of July looks like a nice day, with highs in the 70’s.

However, there’s one computer model holding showers around during the day. It’s honestly too tough to call from this time frame. With the recent trends, I would say, expect the worse, and hope for the best. I will side on the optimistic side for now, and keep it dry on the 4th. Regardless, evening fireworks should be a go in most communities! Happy 4th of July!

Sunday may start off dry, but yet another sysytem may be heading towards New England, with clouds increasing and showers moving in late in the day, or at night. However, this too, is not a sure bet, and it may turn out to be a nice day.

I would love nothing more for the rain to stay away! I have been planning a fourth of July getaway to the Cape since February!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the lookout for any signs of summer. I will also preview what I think July has in store for us. In the meantime, whatever the trend may be, make the best of it!

Have a safe & happy holiday!

Pete

Slow Start To Summer…6/22/15

Hello! Hope everyone got to enjoy their Father’s Day! My Dad passed away five years ago, but there’s not a day that goes by that I don’t think of him. I am grateful to have had my father in my life for as long as I did. There are plenty of people out there that either did not have a father, or lost them prematurely.

Along with Mother’s Day, Father’s Day gives a chance to reflect, and give thanks to Dad’s who dedicate their lives in raising children. For those who don’t give the time or effort, shame on you. You shouldn’t of had kids in the first place.

Overall, the weather this weekend left nothing to be desired for. Cool east winds and increasing clouds kept most folks away from the beaches on Saturday. Remnants from tropical storm Bill moved through the area yesterday, with muggy conditions and tropical downpours for half the day. Later in the afternoon, skies cleared out, allowing for a pleasant evening for cookouts and spending time with family or friends.

Yesterday also featured the summer solstice. Summer officially arrived in the Northern Hemisphere at 12:28 PM. This is also the longest day of the year, with just over 15 hours of sunlight! This is some 6 hours more day light than what occurs on the winter solstice! The days begin to shorten from here on, only by a fraction to begin with, but increasing as we head later in July and especially August.

I always like to mention my sister Pam at this time of the year. On one hand, she’s very excited that summer has officially arrived. However, on the other hand, she gets very anxious that the days are already beginning to shorten, fearing winter is right around the corner again!

I then like to reassure her that because of latent heating and cooling of the land and ocean temperatures, our warmest weather of the year is still lies before us. This is especially true this year. After the bitter cold weather of this past February, it’s taking a bit longer than usual for our ocean temperatures to rebound.

The question is, will they warm up? It’s no secret that summer has gotten off to a rocky start around here. With May being so warm, many folks, including myself, believed we were on our way to a least a somewhat warmer than normal summer. Then June came, and temperatures plunged back to below normal readings. In fact, some are saying June has felt more like May, and vice versa.

How is this possible? And can we still recover from this setback to enjoy a warm summer? I always said, be patient until the solstice arrives, and then we’ll go from there.

Out of all the months to forecast, June is a big pain in the neck! You would think that it’s now summer, and the weather should behave that way. When in reality, the first two thirds of the month, it’s still spring! To further complicate matters, the ocean temperatures are still on the rebound from the depths of winter.

This leaves northern areas, especially here in New England, susceptible to cooler intrusions from the north, and chilly seabreezes from the east. The weather of this June has a lot to do with the abnormally warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, a cooler Atlantic Ocean, and other global teleconnections preventing summer to fully expand into New England.

So where do we go from here? Back when I published my summer forecast on Memorial Day, I mentioned that I would review the pattern once the solstice arrives, and make any changes if it was warranted. To refresh your memory, my forecast called for a warmer to hotter than normal summer, with between 14 and 17 days of 90 degree heat for the Boston area.

How are we doing? Not good. Not good, at all! To this date, Boston has yet to have one 90 degree day! I will tell you this. Last November, I forecasted 100″ of snow to fall in Boston. When the winter solstice came around, and we didn’t even have 1″ of snow, I lost my patience, and called the whole thing off. The rest, as they say, was history!!

The moral of the story is that I’m not making any changes to my forecast. I don’t like to be known as a flip flopper! I made my forecast last November, and I should of stuck to my guns! I had solid scientific evidence, natural inclination, and a very reliable gut instinct to hold steady, and keep the original forecast. If we don’t reach the number of 90 degree days I forecasted for this summer, so be it, I will live and learn from mistakes, and move on!

Looking over the extended forecast over the next couple of weeks, I should make changes to the summer forecast! It looks just dreadful. I was explaing to my sister in law yesterday that the winter pattern we experienced this past winter is still in place, and in fact will intensify over the next couple weeks!

Family was asking me yesterday what my thoughts were for the 4th of July holiday weekend. It is now within the wheelhouse to view on the computer models we use to help us make forecasts.

Later this week, an unusual strong ridge of high pressure, with record breaking heat is going to build into the Pacific northwest, and British Columbia, Canada. Sound familiar?

In response to this, a unusual deep trough of low pressure is going to develop across the eastern part of the country. These are weather terms we do not want to hear in the summer time.

Oh, and one more thing, a Greenland Block is also developing, which will only add to the misery of the upcoming weather pattern. With this block in place, energy in the upper atmosphere will be forced to track underneath New England. In situations like this, periods of cool, damp, unsettled weather can be expected across eastern Massachusetts.

While examining the long range patterns this morning, it appears as if we have a wave of low pressure coming at the end of this week, then another for the start of next week. After that, the computer models are then forecasting a nor’easter type of storm towards the end of next week. If we’re lucky, rain will clear out just in time for us to enjoy a dry 4th of July weekend, only to have another storm the start of the following week…ugh.

You might say, Pete, change your forecast! The summer is a bust! I’m not ready to concede just yet! As with the winter, I believe a burst of summer is still in the cards for us here in New England.

While the pattern is locked hot & dry out west, it’s much more variable here in the east. At some point, I believe a period of hot weather will arrive. We are experiencing extreme weather patterns this year. With record snow and cold last winter, I can’t see summer not going down without a fight!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10 on the beach and boating scale. Expect warm and dry weather for the rest of today. It wil be a good day for beach and boating. Sun, will be mixed with a some billowy cumulus clouds. There is only about a 10% chance of a scattered shower. It will be warm, with highs in low to mid 70’s along the coast, and low to mid 80’s inland. Expect an increase in clouds overnight, with mild readings, mainly in the 60’s.

Tuesday could possibly be an interesting weather day. It will become very warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. A strong storm for this time of year will be moving through southeast Canada. On the south side of this storm, strong southwesterly winds will be pushing warm & humid weather into southern New England.

At the same time, a strong cold front will be traversing southern New England during the day. The combination of all these factors, will result in strong to perhaps even severe thunderstorms to cross the region from west to east during the afternoon.

A few of these storms may be on the severe side, with damaging downburst winds, hail, and vivid lightning. There is also a possibility a small tornado or two across the interior. Please listen to local forecasts or the NWS for latest updates on this potentially dangerous event.

As these storms approach southeastern Massachusetts, and Cape Cod, they may tend to weaken, but that’s not a gaurantee. Storms will dissipate Tuesday evening, leading to clearing and cooler weather to move in overnight. Dew points will be dropping, with less humidity arriving from the northwest.

Wednseday and Thursday look like nice days, with sunshine mixed with some cumulus clouds. It will be seasonable, with highs generally between 75 and 80, with very low humidity. These will be our best two days for beach and boating this week.

Watch for changes for the worse to begin as we head towards the weekend. A low pressure will approach New England Friday, and will likely pass south of the region during the day. This will increase the chances of rain, along with cool east winds off of the ocean.

Rainy, cool weather may continue into Friday night and Saturday morning. Later Saturday, we may get a break from the rainy weather. This may last into the start of Sunday.

However, another storm may approach and take the same track as its predecessor. If this is the case, watch for rainy weather to develop again later on Sunday, and continue into Monday. All the while, expect unseasonably cool temperatures, with highs barely reach into the 60’s, and lows in the 50’s. Yuck!

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing on the 4th of July holiday weekend forecast. Hopefully we get all of the rain out of the way this weekend! I will also be on the look out for our first 90 degree day.

In the meantime, remember Mother Nature has a plan for everything. What this plan is for this summer,  is still a mystery. That’s what makes it so interesting!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Countdown To Summer Solstice…6/15/15

Hello! Despite the threat of rain, it turned out to be quite a nice weekend across much of the region! Saturday started out on the cloudy and muggy side, but this quickly gave way to a sparkling afternoon, with tons of sun, and lowering levels of humidity.

Sunday was another gem of a day from sunrise to sunset, with ample sunshine mixed with some decorative high thin cirrus clouds. It was a little cooler than what most folks like this time of the year, with seabreezes along the immediate coast. After a string of above normal temperatures for much of last week, many enjoyed the break from the heat and humidity.

As for myself, I took a ride over to one of my favorite places for a quick getaway on Sunday. It doesn’t sound like much, but I really do enjoy heading over to Castle Island in South Boston. By not much, I mean you don’t have to make any big plans, or spend a whole day, as if you’re going to the beach. Basically, all you need to do is get in your car, and go!

Once there, you can enjoy a brisk walk, roller blade, jog, or just sit on one of the new benches and enjoy the scenery, and seabreezes. There are even beaches which are clean and fun for kids. What would a trip to Castle Island be if you didn’t stop in the fast food restaurant called Sullivan’s! Here, you can get everything from sea food, to burgers, hot dogs, or have a delicious ice cream!

At one point Boston Harbor was once considered one of the most polluted harbors in the country. This environment has changed drastically over the past several years. With the help of many authorities, state agencies, and the taxpayers of Boston and the state of Massachusetts, Boston Harbor is now one of the cleanest harbors in the country!

Years of effective sewage treatment, and more public awareness, has turned this harbor into a destination for many folks! It took years, but people finally woke up and realized the unlimited resource the harbor has for many.

Along with the cleaner water, many species of fish have returned to the harbor. Years ago, Boston Harbor was known to have the best flounder fishing along the east coast. With the revitilization of the harbor, flounder fishing is making a huge comeback.

Other fish, such as striped bass, bluefish, pollock, and even cod, to name a few, have all come back in big numbers. In fact, even harbor seals have returned to the harbor, due to the increase in bait fish swarming into the bays.

Boston Harbor is a environmental success story that we should all be proud of accomplishing. The key now is to keep this success story moving forward in the future, by making sure technology keeps up with new systems developed in keeping the waters clean.  We must also  continue to fund this cherished resource with the necessary money needeed to sustain this ecosystem.

So, are we going to get any hot weather soon to be able to enjoy the harbor? Well, this is questionable, at this point.

The countdown to astronimical summer is on, as we are now less than a week away to the official start of summer! A few posts back, I mentioned to keep an eye out for air mass regions during the beginning part of summer. This means to be on the look out for areas, or bubbles of hot weather, and pools of cool weather. So far, the bubbles of hot weather, and pools of cool weather have behaved pretty much according to plan across the country.

The Pacific northwest, western Canada has seen hotter than normal temperatures. The middle of the country has been cooler, and wetter than normal. Here in New England, it’s been a bit of combination of the two so far. Warm, muggy days, have been offset by cooler, drier periods.

Very hot weather has been building in the southeast part of the country over the last week. As this hot air moves northward into New England, it gets cut off by upper level jet stream winds coming out of Canada. Therefore, New England, specifically from Boston northward, really does not get into the extreme heat others have felt to our south.

In fact, Boston still has not officially hit 90 degrees this summer. Given a summer forecast I made a few weeks back of a slightly hotter than normal summer on the way, this is becoming somewhat worrisome. With that being said, I also mentioned last week that it’s still early, and that we must be patient some years for real heat to finally make it into New England.

As I see it right now, I am not making any changes to my summer forecast. I do believe the heat in the southeast means business. As the season matures, and ocean waters continue to warm, I believe we too will share in some of this intense heat here in New England. It’s just that we will not be in the core of the most extreme heat.

Fortunately for us, it does appear as if the shallow trough existing in southern Canada will save us, by sending cooler, drier air masses into New England from time to time. Due to the proximity of being close to the boundary, we can also expect periods of wet weather from showers and thunderstorms. You can expect one of these periods of rain today, and perhaps another later on this weekend.

As I mentioned in previous posts, summer is a very tricky season to forecast. This year especially so, due to large scale changes in global teleconnections. Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to be well above average. At the same time, a strong El Nino is forecast to increase in strength heading into this fall.

In the Atlantic, specifically in the waters off of Newfoundland and Greenland, ocean temperatures are getting colder. While this is happening, much warmer than normal water sits off the mid-atlantic coast. Add to this a Dalton minimum solar cycle, increased volcanic activity, and you have a recipe for a volatile extreme weather pattern.

What does this mean for us in the coming months? I believe it means a lot of variability. Much like the winter saw a period of extreme winter weather, I believe summer 2015 has some similar tricks up its sleeve. I still don’t believe we have seen the summer pattern settle in as of yet.

Over the past couple seasons, I have observed a longer than usual delay before the full seasonal change takes place. This means autumn extends deeper into winter, same for winter into spring, and now spring into summer.

I believe that this is due to a increase in latent heating and cooling, due to changes in ocean temperatures. Our climate is a fine balance of natural forces. If the ocean becomes unusually warm, or cool, we see and feel the consequences with wild weather here on land.

With the summer solstice now rapidly appraoching, let’s see what pattern evolves out of this as move later in June into July. Let’s be patient, and let Mother Nature do her thing.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity, beach & boating summer forecast. I will rate this week another 7 out of 10. Expect damp weather for the rest of your Monday. Although the heaviest of rains have moved east, there still may be a few more showers, along with some drizzle.

With northeast winds, it will be unseasonably cool today, with highs only near 60. Obviously, not a great beach or boating day. Tonight will feature low clouds, possibly some areas of drizzle, and continued cool. If you’re brave enough, the Red Sox should be able to get this game in tonight.

Tuesday should be an improvement over today. Look for low clouds and some fog to begin the day. As we get deeper into the day, some breaks of sun will develop. As a cool front approaches from the west, a few scattered thunderstorms may develop. You may get a few hours at the beach in the afternoon, but still not ideal. Temperatures will still only be in the upper 60’s. If you are boating, keep an eye to the sky. Shower activity should clear out Tuesday evening, leading to a dry night, with lows in the 50’s and 60’s.

Wednesday looks like a fine day. Expect plenty of sun, It will be warmer, but not hot by any means. Highs will still only be in the upper 60’s along the coast with sea breezes, and upper 70’s well inland. Not the warmest of beach days, but a decent boating day.

Thursday looks good as well, although another front will be appraoching from the west. This may touch off a few scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. At this point, I am not looking for a washout. Temperatures will mainly be in the low to mid 70’s.

If you are planning to go to the beach, Friday will be a good day to do it. Expect sunny weather, with highs between 78 and 85 degrees. Right now, most of the weekend looks good at this point. Saturday looks similar to Friday, with more sun than clouds, and highs between 78 and 85 degrees.

The weather for Sunday is a bit iffy at this point. Happy Father’s Day! Sunday is also the official start to summer! Another front will be approaching, and timing is important. If it delays, it may turn out like this past weekend, with the rain holding off until Sunday night and Monday. If it speeds up a bit, it could foul up Father’s Day, with humid conditions , and showers and thunderstorms.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the look out for when we may experience our first 90 degree day. I will also have a update on my summer forecast made back on May 25th. In the meantime, for those looking for hot weather, remember it’s still officially spring according to Mother Nature. After Sunday, they’ll be no more excuses!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It’s Still Early, Friends…6/8/15

Hello! All in all, it was a beautiful weekend across much of New England. Showers for Saturday never materialized, and Sunday turned into perhaps a top ten weather day of the year. It was a bit chilly for some, but others basked in the warm June sunshine, with memories of the harsh winter in the rear view mirror.

It was a spectacular day for the 21st annual Corrib Pub 5K Road race, held in West Roxbury. As always, folks do a tremendous job organizing this event, which is enjoyed by adults and kids alike. The event is sponsored by the Corrib Pub, and all proceeds go to local charities. Over the years, it has turned into quite a large event, with many people volunteering their time to make it happen.

I’m so glad when the weather cooperates for the runners and spectators to fully enjoy the day. Congratulations to all the runners and the Corrib Pub for a job well done!

The same praise can not be said for the weather of last week. Wow. If you thought it was a bit on the cold side for this time of year, you were correct! In fact, there were many records broken last week right here in Boston! It was so cold, that there were two rcord low high temperatures set in Boston on both June 1st and june 2nd. It was so cold, that Boston was never this cold, in any June day, as it was on June 2nd. We never got out of the 40’s for a high temperature! It was so cold, that Boston never had a colder first five days to begin June, than it was last week!

It was so cold, that some of my friends on social media began questioning my summer forecast. Some posted links on my timeline, reminding me of the summer of 1816. This was the infamous “year without a summer” here in New England.

Believe it or not, it was so cold during that summer, that many areas had frequent frosts, frequent snow flurries and snow accumulations, throughout the whole summer! For people who made their living off of agriculture and livestock, it was a devastating year. So much so, that it sent folks fleeing to warmer regions of the country.

How could this happen…and could it happen again? The year without a summer was the result of a massive volcanic explosion from Mt. Tambora in Indonesia. The explosion, so great, sent massive amounts of volcanic ash and sulfuric acid into the atmosphere.

If the ash reaches into the stratosphere, sulfide compounds can turn into a aerosol form, creating an albedo effect, increasing the reflection of solar radiation, therefore cooling the earth.

Although rare, cooler than normal seasons do occur from time to time due to volcanic explotions. In the non-summer of 2009, a volcanic eruption from Mt. Redoubt in Alaska fouled up our summer season that year here in New England. In 1992, a massive eruption from Mt. Pinatubo made that summer one of the coldest on record. I remember having to put the heat on around 4th of July that year!

So the short answer to the second part of the question, is yes, this can happen again! Because the earth is alive, and dynamic, the forces of Mother Nature can always have a natural disaster on the table at any moment, at any location.

Is this what I believe is happening this year? Currently, I don’t believe so. Although there has been recent volcanic eruptions around the earth, including one as recent as this past weekend in Indonesia, again!

So far, I don’t believe there has been anything strong enough to alter our weather. For sure, the volcano in Chile this spring was a big event, but paled in comparison to Pinatubo in 1992.

As mentioned earlier, folks are getting anxious. After a surprisingly warmer than normal May, it seems as if we fell right back into old habits again, once June arrived.

Many folks, including myself, felt we were mislead by Mother Nature. I for one, was not expecting such a dramatic return to winter type temperatures to start the summer season off.

Does this mean I’m abandoning my summer forecast? No! Folks, summer has not even officially arrived yet! In other words, it’s still early!

Remember the winter?? I’m sure you do! We only had accumulated 5″ of snow in Boston right up until the first blizzard hit n January 26th. In addition, generally mild weather was the rule for the whole month of December. Remember the balmy Christmas we had, with temperatures near 60? The same can be said for our summer.

Let’s see what the patterns are like when the summer solstice arrives. If we still havn’t had any 90 degree days by the middle of July, then I would start to become concerned.

Even then, the worst winter month in Boston history was in February of this past year! This would equate to August in the summer season. So you never know!

I believe the bitter cold weather in the late winter has something to do with the erratic start to summer. It’s going to take time for the latent heating to kick in around here. Don’t forget how extraordinarily cold the ocean temperatures were this winter.

Once the season matures, and ocean temperatures warm up, I still believe summer heat is going to make its presence felt around here in a big way this summer. Because much of New England sticks out into the Atlantic Ocean, our climate is highly dependent on it’s temperatures.

Other factors influencing our summer patterns this year is the emerging El Nino. I talk a lot about El Nino because it plays such an important role in our weather patterns. El Nino is when the ocean warms up to above normal readings off of the South American coast. Some computer models are indicating that this version of El Nino may strengthen to become a strong event.

At the same time, very warm ocean temperatures continue to persist off the Pacific northwest and British Columbia coasts. With these factors in place, a ridge of high pressure (warm to hot weather) looks to continue in the western part of the country up into western Canada. In the center of the nation, a trough of low pressure (cooler weather) looks like a good bet.

As the Atlantic Ocean continues to warm, the Bermuda High pressure area will strengthen, and will likely send periods of hot and humid weather up into New England this summer. This is what my summer forecast is based upon, and I’m going with it until I see otherwise.

El Nino’s influence on our weather during the summer months are still not fully understood, here in New England. This is what makes forecasting this summer so difficult here in Boston.

Computer models are forecasting El Nino to strengthen over the next several months. If it were to continue to strengthen as we head into winter, a much milder and wetter winter would be in the cards for us here in Boston next year.

However, computer models are also indicating that El Nino peaks during the fall, then weakens as we head into winter. If this were to happen, a much different scenerio would be played out for us next winter.

Right now, I believe we have three different forces battling it out in our climate. We have a strong El Nino developing. We have a warm water off the Pacific northwest. And now, we have a much colder than normal Atlantic ocean developing off of Greenland.

Surprisingly, we also have much warmer than normal water off the east coast. If this were to persist, it’s what may save us from a cold, miserable summer here in New England. With this warm water in that location, we need to keep an eye on this for a possible hurricane to threaten us this summer.

How all these forces play out is going to be fascinating to watch, in the coming months. I will be monitoring these climatic forces very carefully over the next several months.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. A much warmer week is on the way! Expect a combination of sun and clouds for the rest of your Monday. With southerly winds, it will be warmer, with highs mainly in the 70’s. Tonight should be on the dry side, with considerable clouds. Lows will mainly be in the 50’s to lower 60’s.

Watch for more clouds than sun for Tuesday. A cool front moving into region will spark off scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms throughout the region. This may happen at any time during the day, but most likely during the afternoon here in Boston. There may be a few lingering showers during the first part of Tuesday night, but a complete washout is not likely at this time.

Expect a warming trend for the period of Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures should warm up into the 80’s each day. In fact, if we get a enough sun, some areas may touch 90 degrees on Saturday. As for rain chances, there will be a chance of a shower or thunderstorm later on Thursday. No widespread heavy rain is anticipated at this time.

There is a better chance for some showers and thunderstorms later on Saturday. As a cool front pushes into the area, cooler & drier air will bump into the warm to hot air here in southern New England. This is especially true during the maximum heating of the day during the afternoon.

If the front pushes through, Sunday should feature early clouds followed by sunny weather, with highs mainly in the upper 70’s to near 80.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the lookout for any sustainable hot weather in our future. I will also be monitoring how our summer pattern is evolving. With the summer season underway, I will reintroduce the weekly beach and boating forecast.

In the meantime, whether summer comes this year or not, we still have no control over these things. So get out and enjoy each and every day!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

From One Extreme, To Another! 6/1/15

Good morning! It doesn’t look or feel like it this morning, but today is actually the first day of meteorological summer! What happened to our spectacular summer weather from Saturday? With temperatures warming into the mid to upper 80’s, it was a great beach day for the middle of July, let alone May!

Sunday saw an abrupt change to our amazing May weather pattern. It certainly started off on the warm & even muggy side, but the look to the sky told you that something big was about to occur. As the cold front pressed into the warm, humid air, the sky grew darker. A sudden gust of wind from the northeast,  seemed to have swept summer away.

In a matter of minutes, temperatures plummeted some 20 degrees, and a soaking deluge of rain doused the Boston area. This was the scene throughout much of the region yesterday, with many communities experiencing flash flooding due to the rapid rate at which the rain fell in such a short amount of time.

Such is the climate here in New England. Because of our geographic location, any given pattern cannot sustain itself for too long. With our region located between the half way point of the Equator and the North Pole, storms are bound to make there way through the area. Add to that the Atlantic Ocean to our east, the Gulf Stream to our south, and Canada not to far to our north, and you have a recipe for colliding air masses, and storms to develop.

Yesterday was a perfect example of this. Very warm and humid air to the south, collided with unseasonably cool air oozing down from the north. Because cool air is more dense than warm air, the thicker, colder air won out, sending temperatures plummeting across the region. In fact, it was so cold, that areas of Newfoundland and Labrador actually received accumulating snow yesterday, on May 31st!

Talking about extremes, Boston was experiencing it’s second driest May on record! With yesterday’s rainfall, we have fallen out of even the top 5 driest month for May. When all the numbers come in, it actually might not even be in the top ten! Amazing how skewed record keeping can be when we look back at this May years down the road.

People might say it looked like a warmer than normal month, with just a bit below amount of rain. But upon further inspection, they would see that it didn’t rain the whole month until the very last day!

Along with the dry weather, it was unseasonably warm for May. I don’t have the exact numbers just yet, but I believe it may end up being in the top 5 warmest May on record here in Boston.

Other stations, such as Hartford, Connecticut did experience their warmest May on record! I do believe I forecasted May to feature above average temperatures, but not to this level.

So now that meteorological summer is here, what does all this extreme weather of late mean? To be honest, I’m a bit surprised about a couple things going on. After publishing my summer forecast last week, temperatures spiked the next day well up into the 80’s.

In fact, the whole week was very summerlike, with multiple beach days, along with higher levels of humidity. This sudden burst of summery weather resulted in folks calling in looking for air conditioners!

Up to that point, my summer forecast seemed to of had merit. Then came yesterday. I was very surprised at the force in which the cool air came rushing back into New England. It also makes me a bit nervous how it came in right in time for the first day of meteorlogical summer…some places may not get out of the 40’s today. Bad omen? I hope not!

Does this mean my forecast is a bust? I don’t think so. After last winter’s change of plans at the time of solstice, I am in no hurry to make any changes at this point and time. I made my forecast to the best of my ability, and I’m sticking to it! We have a long summer season ahead of us. Astronomical summer does not arrive until June 20th. I have seen cool spells at the start of June, only to give way to blistering heat by months end.

So why all the extreme weather of late? It’s difficult to pinpoint any given event on one thing. However, there are several forces occurring at this time that are having a major impact on our climate today.

To me, there are two major forces that drive our weather. There’s the ocean temperatures, and the grand daddy of them all…the sun. As the ocean temperatures warm & cool in cycles, so does the sun. How all this interacts with our oceans, is still up for speculation and further study.

What we do know, is that  the Atlantic Ocean has been in a positive phase (warmer than normal) along with a solar maxima over the past 3 decades, peaking in the winter of 2011-12. Since then, the sun’s solar radiation has been plummeting into a Dalton solar minimum, and is likely to be in this phase for years to come.

Long range weather experts from WeatherBell Analytics are now forecasting the Atlantic Ocean to turn permanently negative by the year 2020. In fact, it has already been in a negative state from this past winter, and is only forecasted to become increasingly negative over the next several years.

At the same time, the Pacific Ocean has been warmer than normal over the past couple of winters. This is known as a positive PDO (Pacific Decadel Oscillation). There are two major forces in the Pacific that control our weather. There’s El Nino (warm water off South America), usually associated with a positive PDO. Then there’s the opposite, called La Nina (cold water off of South America, west coast of North America, and the Gulf of Alaska). This phase is associated with a negative PDO, or cold water.

Since we are in a positive phase in the Pacific Ocean, we will concentrate on El Nino. Depending on how strong El Nino is, it can significantly alter weather patterns, and change jet streams for several years at a time.

A strong El Nino can strengthen the sub-tropical jet stream, and send a fire hose of precipitation into California and the western part of the U.S. It also activates a very active jet stream in the southern part of the U.S., including Florida. This typically brings cold, damp weather for the southern tier of the U.S.

Meanwhile, northern states, including New England, typically experience a warm and wet winter. Unlike the past couple winters, where the cold, polar jet would supply cold air to storms, the polar jet retreats into Canada during strong El Ninos, resulting in more rain, than snow.

In the summer, El Nino’s can increase westerly winds in the upper atmosphere, which prohibits hurricanes from developing in the Atlantic Basin.

The tricky part is that El Nino’s come in different strengths. Much like last year, El Nino is forecasted to strengthen this summer, only to diminish somewhat as we head into winter. How much this diminishes will have a major impact on what type of winter we are going to see around here next year. A weaker El Nino diminishes the strength of the sub tropical jet, allowing the northern polar jet to be more dominant.

If it does weaken again, and the Pacific remains warmer than normal off the British Columbia coast, the eastern part of U.S. could be looking at another severe winter next year. This would include New England…again! This would be bad news for California.

However, if the Pacific suddenly flips to negative, cold water off British Columbia and Gulf of Alaska, then all bets are off. This would promote cold, stormy weather for the western part of the country, while the east would experience more ridging, and a milder weather regime. This will be monitored closely over the next several months.

As for this summer, you can expect a highly variable weather pattern over the next several months. With all the warm water off the Pacific, a  ridge of high pressure will continue out west. Here in New England, shallow troughs (cool weather), should be offset by strong ridging (warm weather), along the east coast. This should promote periods of hot and muggy weather the deeper we get into summer.

The clash of these two air masses should promote enough rainfall to avoid a serious drought. With that being said, more extreme swings in temperatures and precipitiation should be expected over the next couple of months around here.

The pressing question to me is why the El Nino has been peaking during summer and weakening during winter. It normally does the opposite. Could this be a sign of the sun’s diminishing solar radiation beginning to change our climate? I will be following this closely as we head through the summer months.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity summer forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. For today and tomorrow, expect waves of rain, northeast winds, and cold temperatures. Watch for heavy rain at times as well, with another 2″ of water likely. Temperatures will only be in the upper 40’s and low 50’s! This is some 25 degrees below average.

Tonight’s Red Sox game is in jeopardy for a rain out, but they should be able to get tomorrow night’s game in. If we’re lucky, skies will clear to allow us to view the full “Strawberry Moon” tomorrow night!

As the storm pulls away,Wednesday will feature cool weather, but with sunshine on the increase. Temperatures should only be in the 60’s. Expect warmer weather to arrive for Thursday and Friday, with highs making back into the upper 70’s to near 80. Thursday should be the sunnier of the two days, with more clouds around on Friday.

There is going to be another cold front pushing into New England this weekend. Right now, I am not expecting a washout. However, you will have to deal with a period of showers at some point on Saturday. Right now, Sunday looks to be improving, with clearing skies and highs in the 70’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the look out for when more genuine summer weather will arrive. I will also also feature a beach forecast to kick off the summer season! In the meantime, remember that the extremes make the averages. Let’s hope for our sake, the average is on the plus side for us this summer!

Thanks for checking in!

Pete

SUMMER 2015: LONGER…HOTTER! 5/25/15

Hello! Happy Memorial Day to all! I know it’s been said already, but it’s worth repeating again. Yes, Memorial Day is the unofficial start of summer. Friends and families are gathering together to attend cookouts or going to open up the summer cottages. Some even believe it’s time to party.

However, let us not forget the true meaning of Memorial Day. This is a day to reflect and give thanks to our military past and present for giving us the freedom to be able to enjoy time with family and friends.

Thousands have sacrificed their lives to help retain our freedom we enjoy today. It goes without saying we need to remember & respect these true American heroes on a daily basis, not just on Memorial Day. It’s also a good day to visit & remember loved ones who have passed on from this life.

With all that being said, we are just about on our way to begin enjoying summer, 2015! Remember, meteorological summer begins on June, 1st. The summer solstice officially arrives on June, 20th.

There was no talk of summer weather around here early Saturday morning! Many areas of New England awoke to temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s regionwide. Gusty northwesterly winds actually created somewhat of a wind chill early in the day. Some deeper interior valleys saw below freezing temperatures!

In fact, it was so cold that Mt. Washington in New Hampshire reported 3″ of new snow on Friday night! Other higher elevations of northern New England also experienced snow showers and dustings of snow. This was most likely winters last gasp of life for this season. Talking about a visitor who overstayed his welcome!

Later Saturday afternoon, winds shifted to the southwest and temperatures began to modify. As forecasted, Sunday was the pick of the weekend. As a Bermuda High began to expand towards the east coast, warmer winds turned Sunday into a beach day!

I noticed some of my friends enjoying themselves on Nantasket Beach, in the beautiful town of Hull yesterday. Others were down in Marshfield, while many headed down the Cape. After such a bitter cold winter, ocean temperatures are still hovering in the 50’s…go in at your own peril!

While today will feature more clouds than yesterday, the warm weather is here to stay! The question is, just how warm is it going to be? Is it going to become a hot summer? Are we going to get a lot of rain? Is it going to muggy??? I will do my best to answer these pressing questions in my 2015 summer forecast.

First off, we need to identify the players on the field for our summer forecast. Once again, as we had in the winter, we have a very interesting set of natural factors at work here this summer.

Right now, we have a strengthening El Nino, warm Pacific Ocean, cooler Atlantic ocean, stronger Bermuda High, dry soil due to lack of rain this spring, and a lower minimal solar cycle (weaker sun). All of this leads to a very volatile, nearly unpredictable weather patterns, which may lead to some extreme events this year. Much how the winter went to the extreme, there is a chance the same could happen this summer.

Out of all the seasons, I believe summer is the most difficult to forecast. At least for me, anyway. There just isn’t as many reliable teleconnections as there is for winter. Add to that, you have the main jet stream retreat up into Canada, not to be seen until sometime in fall. Basically, what we are left with during the summer months, are bubbles of high pressure, and shallow pools of cool  unsettled low pressures. In other words, steering currents are weak, and unpredictable.

The trick is forecasting where these bubbles of heat, and cool pool areas are going to establish themselves. This summer, I am fairly confident on a ridge in the west (hot & dry), a trough in the middle of the country (cool and wet), and a ridge along the east coast (hot & wet).

If you recall, last year was a very unusually cool summer in much of New England. Despite mustering 7 days of 90 degree temperatures in Boston, we never had a official heatwave last summer! Most days were cool & blustery, with chilly to unusually cold nights. Boston typically endures approximately 13 or 14 days of 90 + degree temperatures over the course of the warm season.

There were plenty of days in the 80’s last summer, which made it quite a delightful summer for many. There’s no question, temperatures in the 80’s can feel very warm. However, once it hits 90, it elevates to the hot category. I measure how hot our summers are by how many times it hits 90 degrees or higher.

With all being said, what kind of a summer am I expecting for Boston this year? I am expecting a hotter summer this year than last summer. Some are calling for another cool summer this year. I don’t see the same parameters which brought the unseasonably cool summer last year setting up for this year.

Just to clarify, when I say hotter, this does not mean, the hottest! Overall, I am expecting a summer with more typical heat, perhaps a bit hotter than normal. However, when factoring in just how cool last summer was, the perception may be that it felt much hotter this summer.

Overall, you can expect between 14 and 17 days this summer with 90+ degree heat in Boston. This is quite a bit more from last summer, but really only a bit hotter than the long term average. I am also expecting several heat waves to engulf the region this summer. Remember, to be classified as a official heat wave, it must reach 90 degrees at least three days in a row.

Unlike last summer, I am expecting this summer to become increasingly hotter, the deeper we get into it. Right now, I am looking at August to be the hottest month on average out of the three. However, you can expect very warm weather to arrive in Boston as early as this week, and occur more frequently than last summer, and to last deeper into the summer as well.

Along with the heat, expect it to be quite a bit more muggy this summer, which will only add to the uncomfortable feel to the air. This will send many folks to area beaches and pools seeking relief.

What about rainfall? Well, it certainly has gotten off to on the very dry side. Looking at the set up for the summer, I believe we will continue to be on the drier side. However, there will be plenty of opportunites for frequent showers and thunderstorms, mainly due to the increased humidity in the air, and moisture streaming up from the southeast U.S.

Due to the clockwise circulation around the Bermuda High, New England may occasionally be on the northwestern flank of the “ring of fire.” This is the dividing zone from cooler air to our north, and hot & steamy air to our south. The convergience area where these two air masses meet is where you can expect episodes of showers and thunderstorms.

This moisture should help prevent our area from entering a full fledged drought. We will need to monitor this very carefully, as any slight shift in this pattern could have a major impact on our drought level.

What could go wrong? The experts believe a strengthening El Nino may result in a cool and rainy summer for northeast. I believe El Nino has a greater impact on our weather during the winter months. Therefore, I rely on other teleconnections, such as the Bermuda High to dictate our weather during the summer.

This summer, I believe the Bermuda High is going to a major player in our summer weather. When this weather factor strengthens, it will push hazy, hot and muggy weather into New England from the south.

The continued presence of warmer than normal Pacific Ocean, especially of the British Columbia coast may also be a factor in our summer weather. This would continue to promote ridge of hot & dry weather out west, with cooler trough towards the middle of the country.

I am counting on the Bermuda High to be a strong presence for us here in New England. If it does not strengthen, the cooler trough from the middle of the country could drift into New England, which would foul up the forecast. Also, cooler Atlanic water temperatures could prevent any prolonged heat waves this year.

This is very tricky, as sometimes, water temperatures suddenly warm as the season matures. I am also counting on these water temperatures to help promote the hotter summer forecast.

As always, Mother Nature has the final say in all of this speculation. I did want to remind everyone that I am not a professional meteorologist. I do my best to study and understand this very complex science, and pass this knowledge on to you. Although I do have a good track record with forecasting these seasonal forecasts, this is my hobby, not my profession. I will update this seasonal forecast on the summer solstice, only if I see any major changes. As always, I do appreciate the kind comments and support.

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Very warm, but you will also need to dodge some showers and thunderstorms.

For the rest of your Memorial Day holiday, watch for warm temperatures, with a mixture of sun and considerable cloudiness. I am not expecting any rain today. Even with the lack of sun, temperatures will warm up into the lower 80’s for most. You can deduct between 10 and 15 degrees if you are down the Cape. Look for lots of clouds and mild weather tonight, with lows mainly in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.

For the period of Tuesday through Saturday, watch for very warm, and muggy weather to be the rule, with high temperatures ranging between 85 and 90, and lows in the 60’s, very summery indeed! Along with the heat, there will be the chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance of this happening will be on Wednesday afternoon, Thursday, and Saturday.

Right now, the weekend  hinges upon a cool front pushing into the region. If we are lucky, the front will bring a period of showers and thunderstorms later Saturday into Sunday morning. If the front is progressive, it will clear the coast early Sunday, leading to clearing and cooler weather for the balance of Sunday.

However, there is an equal chance that this front will stall close to southern New England, allowing for more showers and thunderstorms to fire up, turning Sunday into somewhat of a washout. Stay tuned for changing conditons.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting on the upcoming El Nino, and the implications it will have on our climate. I will also review the month of May, and preview what you can expect in June. In the meantime, dust off the air conditioners & break out the flip flops, summer is coming this year!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

When In Doubt, Forecast Drought! 5/18/15

Hello! I’m sure I have used this title before in the past, but it’s worth repeating! A long time ago, a Boston meteorologist named Mark Rosenthal had to make a difficult forecast on whether it was going to rain or not. It was a tough call, but in the end , he said a phrase that I remember to this day. He said, “When in doubt, forecast for drought.”

When I made my forecast last Monday, for my niece’s prom this past Saturday, I applied this catchy weather quote, and it worked like a charm! So happy the forecast worked out well for my niece!

To be perfectly honest, the weather for this past Saturday looked very unsettled. From last Monday, the forecast did have quite a bit of doubt. I wasn’t buying the computer model forecast for showers and cool weather. Because the weather has been so dry as of late, I opted to go for the drought forecast, with just a chance of a shower. As it turned out, we didn’t even receive a drop of rain this past weekend!

Let me be clear before I move forward today. New England is currently not in a drought! Especially in regards as to what is going on in California. With that being said, NOAA has recently upgraded the New England region, as “abnormally dry.”

I have mentioned this several times before, despite the record winter snows, New England has been on the drier side, with below average amounts of precipitation, over the past couple years!

It’s a difficult concept to understand. You say, Pete, we had 9 ft of snow this past winter, how can we be talking drought? Well, looking back, we had a fairly dry summer last year. Precipitation increased somewhat last fall, only to drop off again once winter began. In fact, we barely had any precipitation for December, and the first part of January.

Then we got the 9 ft of snow, so we should be all set, right? The short answer to that question is, no! Much of the snow that fell, had very little water content. Meaning it was very high ratio snows. Typically, one inch of rain equals 10″ of snow. Well this year, because of the bitter cold arctic air injected into the blizzards, the ratios were more like 2 to 1, and in some cases 3 to 1!

All of this means, we had a ton of snow, but not as much water equivalent as you would think. Luckily the snow was so fluffy and light, as it kept damages down, and also melted away fairly quickly.

Now, with a dry spring, concerns about drought increase again as we head into summer. With increased solar radiation, more evaporation, dry soil can breed more dry weather patterns.  As with this past weekend, the computer models forecast of heavy rain just evaporated as it entered New England.

To be sure, New England droughts are different than California droughts.  California droughts are extreme, with barely no rain falling for years at a time!  Here in New England, it’s generally a wet climate. With the Great Lakes to our west, the Atlantic Ocean to our east, and jet stream winds traversing the region from all directions, storms are bound to reach us at one point or another.

As for California, they are not as fortunate. Because of their latitude, jet stream winds largely bypass California for what now what has been for years. The current drought is something to behold. I’m not going to call it unprecedented, because it has been this dry before in the past. But with increased population and agricultural needs, the water is running out quicker than it ever has.

Promise of a strong El Nino last winter proved futile, as a stubborn area of subsidence (high pressure ridge), kept California high and dry. Once again, El Nino is ramping up this year. If the northern Pacific Ocean cools off next winter, this could send a strong sub tropical jet stream screaming into California, resulting in catastrophic amounts of precipitation. To me, it’s a matter of when it’s going to happen, not if.

What about here in New England? As mentioned earlier, we are in the crossfire of jet stream winds and storms in our region. In the summer and early fall, these storms consist of showers & thunderstorms with cold front passages. However, if the Bermuda High strong enough, this can weaken the fronts, and wash them out before arriving in New England. If this happens, then we have to be on the look out for tropical storms and hurricanes to supply us with rainfall.

Even without a direst hit, weakening storms and moisture plumes from these tropical systems can wipe out a rainfall deficit within hours in some cases, as they travers New England. Some years, tropical storms supply New England with a very important source of moisture.

Will this be one of those years? I would say yes. Right now, the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NOAA), calls for a below average hurricane season this year. This is largely due to the expectation of a strengthening El Nino, and cooler waters in the Atlantic basin this year. El Nino strengthens upper level westerly winds, which shears storms apart as they begin to develop.  The cooler water speaks for itself, as hurricanes need a minimum of 80 degree water temperatures to sustain strength.

With that being said, there are some hot spots this year to be concerned about. The Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are running much above average this year. Also, ocean temperatures off the souteast Atlantic coast are also much warmer than normal.

At this point, I am taking the middle road and forecasting a normal hurricane season. This means, we will see around 12 named storms, 5 to 7 becoming hurricanes, and 1 to 3 becoming major storms.

If you live in the Gulf coast region, as well as the southeast coast, you should begin to prepare for a possible tropical storm or full fledged hurricane to strike this season.

Areas along the east coast straight up into New England also have to be on gaurd this season for a weakening hurricane or tropical storm hitting. It all is depending on how warm the ocean can get off our coast this summer. Remember it only takes one storm to result in catastrophic devastation.

A good example of this was the El Nino year of 1992, when category 5 Andrew slammed into south Florida.  Hurricane season officially begins on June 1st. At that point, I may update this forecast, depending on current trends.

Any new developments on our summer forecast? I’m gathering more data, in preparation for my official summer forecast published next week. Right now, I am leaning towards a hotter summer than last year. I rate how hot our summers are, by how many 90 degree days we achieve. On average, Boston hits 90 degrees 14 times each year.

Last year, we hit 90 degrees 12 times, many of which came very late in the season. Long range models are hinting of a stronger Bermuda High pressure this summer, which would help pump hotter weather up the coast into Boston from the southeast U.S. Tune in next week to see my final numbers!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I am rating this week a 9 out of 10! This dry weather pattern does have its benefits! Expect a coolish afternoon, with sunshine mixed with some clouds. Later in the afternoon, low clouds and fog may push back in from the ocean along coastal communities. With onshore winds, expect temperatures to mainly be in the upper 50’s right along the coast, to upper 60’s inland. Tonight will feature increasing clouds, with mild temperatures across the region.

Watch for a band of showers to cross the region Tuesday, especially in the morning. There is a outside chance of a thunderstorm as the front crosses the region. Any showers will be off the coast Tuesday night, with clearing skies and cooler temperatures. If you are going to the Red Sox game, be sure to bring a light jacket or sweater.

For the period of Wednesday through Friday, expect sunny days, and clear and cool nights. High temperatures will range from between 68 and 74 degrees, and lows will fall to between 42 to 49 degrees. Just a fantastic stretch of weather!

Now the forecast for the big holiday weekend! Right now, I am expecting a coolish day for Saturday, with an outside chance of a shower. I am not expecting any widespread rain. Temperatures will mainly be in the upper 60’s and low 70’s.

Sunday may be the pick of the weekend. I am expecting sunny weather, along with warmer temperatures well up into the 70’s. Could even be a nice beach day.

As for Memorial Day itself, right now I am going to try my old weather saying again! A cold front will be slowly pushing towards New England. Right now, I will call for more clouds than sun, with temperatures in the 70’s. Showers may be on the approach, but I’m going to go the optimistic route and hold them off until night fall. Hope this works out for everyone!

Well that’s about it for today! In next week’s blog, I will be publishing my official 2015 summer forecast! I will also have an update on our recent dry weather. It seems every time I write about our dry weather, a deluge follows! In the meantime, let’s hope that deluge comes AFTER the Memorial Day weekend!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

High Pressure Forecast! 5/11/15

Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Mother’s Day! Last week I mentioned that the pattern could go either way for Sunday. As it turned out, it went towards the direction of a sunny and warmer day. In fact, it went so far as to say it got downright hot! With winds turning west, many towns, even along east coast beaches, quickly warmed up to near 90 degrees! This is some 25 degrees above average for the date! It certainly made Mother’s Day feel more like Independence Day!

For me, I was very grateful to be able to spend another Mother’s Day with my mom and family at my sisters house. For many, it’s a day to honor mothers who undoubtedly have one of the most difficult non-paying jobs in the world.

For others, it’s a day to reflect and remember their moms who are no longer with them. Whichever camp you fell into, I hope your day was filled with warm memories of today, and from the past.

Before I move on, let’s not forget mom’s support system, which can include anyone from grandmothers, aunties, and close friends alike. All of who play an important role in raising kids these days.

So, just how unusual was it to be so warm on Mother’s Day? Last week, I mentioned how fickle the weather can be around here in May. In fact, it was just last Friday that many homes in eastern Massachusetts had to turn on the heat because it got so chilly!

Saturday began on the foggy and cool side, but a sudden wind shif brought warmer weather during the afternoon. This wind shift, associated with a building area of high pressure to our south, drove a west wind straight towards the coast on Sunday.

A west wind this time of year is typically a warm wind. Winds that blow from the Berkshires to the coast is downslope wind. As a parcel of air decends off of the mountains towards the coastal plain, it will warm up, and also dry out. This wind prevented the seabreeze from developing, and also brought warm to hot weather right to the beaches.

For sure it’s a little early for this type of warm weather around here. It’s not unprecedented, though! Just three years ago, we had very warm  weather starting in March, only to turn hot in April. Like it can get cold in November, it can turn hot in May from time to time. Boston typically averages one 90 degree day in May. We made it up to 89 yesterday, so we’re not quite there just yet!

Studying the weather charts on a daily basis, I could see the summer warmth building during April to our south. As I mentioned last week, a major hemispheric shift in the weather patterns has been completed.

This has resulted in cold, stormy weather to finally return out west under a deep trough of low pressure (cold and stormy). In fact, many areas of Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado experienced a late season snow storm this weekend! This included the city of Denver, which received about 4″ of heavy wet snow! Only in Colorado can you find tornado watches and winter storm watches in the same counties!

Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure ( warm and sunny), has built into the eastern half of the United States, including us here in New England! As it does many years, it took a little while for it to make it up here in New England. For me, It was just a matter of when, not if, when it was going to encompass New England. As it turned out, we went from winter to summer seemingly overnight! As mentioned in last weeks blog, this typically happens around Memorial Day around here.

Will this pattern persist for the rest of the summer? It’s still a bit too early to be 100% confident about this. However, as I said last week, there has been a major pattern shift in the upper air steering currents. I would rather see this type of a pattern setting up at this time of the year, than the a cold, wet pattern. For those who enjoy warm, to hot summers, I am very encouraged at what I am seeing right now.

What could go wrong? Well, the Pacific Ocean is still in its positive phase, meaning water temperatures are running above average. In addition, a strengthening El Nino will further warm the waters off South America. What this all means is that the summer may continue the theme of high variability, which could feature times of warm to hot periods, punctuated by cooler, drier episodes.

With the warm Pacific, this could promote a ridge of high pressure out west, which may lead to a shallow trough over the east. Putting all this together, we could be looking at a very pleasant summer pattern in my opinion.

The mixture of hot weather, along with breaks of cooler weather, may just lead to a summer that averages about normal, perhaps even a bit hotter than normal.

I am still reviewing long range weather models, reading technical discussions, and studying my own natural signs for the upcoming season. In two weeks, my official summer forecast will be released!

Speaking of summer, we often associate hurricanes during the warm season. Hurricane season officially begins on June 1st. However, as some of my friends pointed out, we have already had our first named storm!

Ana, developed off the southeast coast, and actually lashed the outer banks of the Carolinas this weekend. This storm will move northeast and pass southeast of Nantucket Island tomorrow, having very minimal impact on our region, other than some high surf off Nantucket.

The premature named storm does not have any bearing on the upcoming season. A strengthening El Nino may once again keep this season below normal in amount of named storms. However, as I have said before, it only takes one storm to result in catastrophic devastation.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to briefly discuss a very unusual storm we had in weather history. Back on May 9th, 1977, a very late season snow storm hit Massachusetts! With all the leaves on the trees, heavy wet snow resulted in massive tree damage, especially across inland and elevated areas. Only about a half inch of snow accumulated at Logan Airport, but 2 or 3″ fell across inland areas of the city.

Further inland, and especially elevated areas, between 6 and 20″ of heavy wet snow fell! It was the latest snowfall in recorded history in Boston, and one of the largest late season storm ever recorded across inland areas. Quite a contrast from the weather we experienced on this Mother’s Day!

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week another 8 out of 10! Over the years, I have made thousands of high pressure forecasts, but nothing can compare to giving my precious niece a good forecast for her prom this Saturday!! Unfortunately, it’s not a clear cut forecast for Saturday. However, I must say, it is looking a lot better than it did yesterday!

First things first, expect changeable weather today. Another backdoor cool front is pushing into eastern Massachusetts even as we speak. This will not be as strong as the one from last Friday, however, if you live within 20 miles of the coast from Boston, especially up into northeastern Massachusetts into southeast New Hampshire, watch for winds to turn northeast.

Temperatures that have quickly warmed into the 70’s this morning will fall back into the upper 50’s and low 60’s this afternoon! So open the windows and let the fresh air blow in!

If you live west and southwest of Boston by 20 miles or more, this natural air conditioning will not reach you. So you can expect temperatures to be quite warm, with highs mainly in the 80’s. With this front in the vicinity, a pop up shower or thunderstorm is not out of the question during the maximum heating of the day.

Watch for low clouds, cooler weather and fog to encompass coastal regions tonight with lows in the 50’s. Further inland, expect a warm night, with lows only dropping into the lower 60’s.

Tuesday will dawn with low clouds and fog. However, watch for this to burn off during the morning. As a storm passes to our north, this will push the backdoor cool front back north of us.

With a strengthening southwest wind, watch for temperatures to soar back into the 80’s to near 90 once again! A strong cold front will be traversing the region during the day.

As this cold front presses into the building heat, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms to pop across the region, especially during the afternoon.

Scattered showers and storms may linger into Tuesday evening. I am not expecting a washout at this point, but you should be prepared for some delays. As the front moves through, expect cooler and drier air to begin moving into the region.

Expect cooler and more seasonable weather to be the rule for both Wednesday and Thursday. Watch for a mixture of sunshine and puffy fair weather clouds during the day, with highs mainly in the 60’s. Night time will feature clear and chilly weather, with lows in the 30’s across rural areas, and 40’s in urban locations.

Friday is shaping up to be a beauty of a day. Look for sunny skies, with temperatures warming back up to close to 70 degrees.

Right now, based upon what I have reviewed this morning, I am expecting a fairly decent day coming up for Saturday. It won’t be perfect, but I am not anticipating any washout at this point. Expect a mixture of clouds and sun for the most part, with just the chance of a late afternoon shower. Temperatures should be mild, with highs mainly in the 70’s. Have fun Elena!!

Sunday may start out with some scattered showers, but I am expecting the weather to improve during the day, with increasing sun and temperatures warming back up into the 70’s!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be publishing my 2015 Atlantic Hurricane forecast. I will also be discussing in greater detail my 2015 summer forecast. In the meantime, I’m sure there will be more high pressure forecasts coming in the next month. You can be rest assured, I will be ready for them!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

***Happy Birthday to my brother, John!***

Forget Spring…I’m Talkin’ Summer! 5/4/15

Hello! Welcome to May! The weather was anything but May like on Friday, May 1st, with many locations not getting out of the 40’s for high temperatures! It was downright cold for the beginning of May. Saturday featured warmer weather, but a stiff east wind kept it chilly along the coast again. With New Englanders just enduring one of the toughest winters on record, I could feel the tension building from folks who were sick of the cold.

With a wind shift to into the south, Sunday was a significant improvement, with many locations away from the coast warming up into the low 70’s! This sent torrents of people, who have been couped up indoors all winter, rushing to the great outdoors to enjoy springtime in Boston at its best!

May is a true transition month here in New England. You could compare it very much to its cousin, November. Like November being the third month in autumn, May is the third month in spring, and is the gateway to summer.

Like November, May can be a fickle month. Some years, the winter patterns can linger deep into May, resulting in chilly, damp weather. Then, right around Memorial Day, as if Mother Nature flicks a switch, summer suddenly arrives. This is where New Englanders get the saying, “It’s just gonna go from winter to summer!”

We say that all the time, but is there any truth to that? Actually, some years, the answer is most definitely yes! It’s not like its snowing on Memorial Day, then it gets hot, that’s not what happens. You really have to live here for a number of years to truly understand what this means.

After the winter snows have melted, a ugly stretch of cool, unsettled & damp weather can linger right up until Memorial Day. In fact, some days are similar to the weather we had on Friday, which was downright cold! It’s not uncommon for many folks to turn the heat back on again during May.

However, as mentioned earlier, May can be a  fickle month, with true summer like weather making its presence felt early in some years. As in November, some years is a continuation of mild autumn weather, while other years, winter can get started early, with cold and snow!

What’s the reasoning behind the changeable weather? Well, alot has to do with the ocean temperatures. Latent heating heats up the land quicker than the ocean this time of the year. This is why the coast is so much chillier this time of year than inland areas. Backdoor cold fronts are lurking close by this time of year, waiting to rush coastal communities with chilly, foggy weather from the ocean from time to time.

High altitude jet stream winds also tend to slow down in the transition period between winter and spring. This can lead to blocking patterns. Last week, we were on the cold, unsettled side of the block.

This week, however, we are going to be on the warm and dry side of the block! Sometimes, this Greenland Block can lasts for weeks at a time during the spring, bringing cool and damp weather to eastern New England. Fortunately for us, it appears the block we had last week was transient, meaning it broke down fairly quickly, allowing the nice weather to return to the region.

With all the chilly weather we have been experiencing so far this spring, it’s easy to forget that we did have some periods of warm weather, especially during April. This actually helped April out to end up with nearly average temperatures for the month.

Remember, it’s the extremes that make up the average. As has been the case for most of the winter, April continued the dry trend, ending up nearly 2″ below average for the month. Despite the wintery start, only a trace of snowfall was recorded at Logan Airport this April.

Despite May starting off on the cold side on Friday, I am anticipating temperatures to be warmer than normal this May. In fact, a sudden hemispheric shift in the overall  weather patterns, could turn May into quite a summery month around here this year!

In other words, the pattern that brought the severe winter to Boston this year has retrograded out west. A Bermuda type high pressure area is building in off the eastern seaboard, and will send surges of warm weather up into New England for a good part of the month.

This is great news for many folks here in New England. Because of the severe winter, tree foliage and flower blooms have been delayed by nearly two weeks. Now, with the warm weather coming, I expect things to catch up in the coming days. By mid-May, I am expecting everyhting to be in full bloom in the Boston area.

I’m sure you have already felt it, but with the sudden warm weather and tree beginning to blossom,  expect an explosion in allergies from tree pollen. For many, it’s a difficult time of year. You love the warm weather, but the suffering that comes along with it, many can do without. With very little rain in the forecast, watch for rising pollen levels this week.

The one thing that combats the tree pollen, is rainfall, which naturally cleanses the air. Other than a few showers here and there this week, it looks like a predominantly dry week ahead. In fact, from what I can see, May looks to continue our dry trends, with below average amounts of precipitation expected.

So what does this mean for our summer? Well, from what I can see at this early juncture, I am becoming more confident in some of my thoughts for this upcoming summer. My official forecast won’t be released for another few weeks, but things are looking much more optimistic as of late.

I am very encouraged of the early breakdown of the Greenland Block. I am also encouraged of the rapid retreat of the polar jet stream. All of this leads me to believe that we may be in store for one fine summer on the way this year!

Early indications are telling me that this summer may be hotter than last summer. Also, despite all the snow we had this winter, this summer is looking to average below normal rainfall, which will eventaully lead to drought restrictions in much of the region.

With all that being said, I am constantly reviewing new data on a daily basis, so this is still preliminary. I am still worried about the above normal ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and the cooling Atlantic Ocean.

We also have a strengthening El Nino Occurring this summer. All of this will be taken into consideration when I finalize my summer forecast three weeks from today!

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I am rating this week a 8 out of 10! Look for today to feel more like June than anything else. Enjoy plenty of sun, with temperatures averaging out near 80! If you plan on being along New England’s south coast, you can deduct about 10 degrees. If you live northwest of Boston, you can add a few degrees.

If you live across the interior, the NWS has posted a Red Flag warning for today. This means there is a high risk of brush fires. Typically, this happens in April, when the foliage and vegetation hasn’t fully bloomed yet. Because we are running behind, brush fire danger continues here in May. Watch for mild weather to continue for your Monday night, with mainly clear skies and temperatures dropping into the 40’s and low 50’s.

Tuesday will feature sun, along with some building clouds. Because of the clouds, temperatures will be slightly cooler. As a backdoor cold front approaches during the afternoon, a few showers could develop. Depending on how much sun we receive, some of these showers could contain some heavy downpours. High temperatues will mainly be in the 70’s.

Any showers will clear out and tomorrow night looks pleasant, with clearing skies and lows in the 40’s.

Wednesday looks to be a nice day, with sunny weather, and highs in the 70’s again. Watch for increasingly warm weather as we head into Thursday through Saturday. It should be mainly dry during this period, but a spot shower can’t be ruled out.

Temperatures should warm into the upper 70’s on Thursday, and low 80’s for Friday and Saturday…beach anyone?? If you do go to the beach, local sea breezes may keep the beaches much cooler, so keep that in mind.

Right now, Mother’s Day is a bit iffy. A backdoor cold front will be in the vicinity switching winds onshore with cooler temperatures in the 60’s. There is about a 40% chance the backdoor cold front remains just to our north. In that case, it would simply be sunny and warm, with highs in the 70’s.

Climatology calls for the front slipping through with cooler onshore winds. So expect cooler weather on Sunday, along with the chance of some showers. A washout is not anticipated at this time.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating our spring timetable. I will also have another update on our imminent summer forecast. There will be one more winter weather history segment looking back at a very unusual May snow storm that hit way back in 1977.

Then, no more talk of snow until next fall! In the meantime, it looks like we’re going straight from winter into summer, I don’t think there will be too many folks complaining!

Thanks for reading!

Pete