COULD THIS BE TRUE??!! 4/27/15

Good morning, everyone! Overall, I would say it was a very Novemberish weekend across the region. After Friday’s downright cold weather, the weekend warmed up a bit, but those pesky grey clouds prevented us from enjoying any real spring time weather.

In fact, I did happen to see some flurries in the air early Friday morning! While the days warm up just enough, the nights are still cold, requiring many folks to continue to click on the furnace.

I know, it’s been a painfully slow process getting any sustainable spring weather into these parts this year. Every time it warms up for a day or two, it reverts right back to the cold and unsettled weather pattern from the winter.

I mean, come on, it’s the last week of April, and most of the trees don’t even have buds on them yet, there’s still snow on the ground up in ski country, and folks still have to keep the warm jackets and scarves close by.

In fact, Jay Peak up in northern Vermont received between 10 and 18″ of powdery snow last week! With so much snow still on the ground, some resorts will be skiing well into May this year! I just read a report that Killington would like to remain open until June! Many resorts end up closing not because there’s no more snow, but because most folks have turned their attention to gardening, and summer outdoor activities!

On a brighter note, the little sun that we have had, seems to be doing the trick with our lawns. The grass has certainly turned much greener, and the bright yellow forsythia is adding a splash of color to a otherwise dull landscape.

Many friends and family members have been asking me when this nonsense is going to end. As I mentioned in last weeks blog, I thought it was actually going to be a lot worse than what it’s been.

Back in February, I remember looking at the long range guidance, and saying to myself, this is going to be a long haul! The reason being is that I saw no mechanism to boot the winter pattern out of here. In other words, I mentioned to my brother that this winter is literally going to decay on top of us. I know it sounds gross, but this is exactly what occurred. The deep trough of low pressure (cold/unsettled weather), has been the persistant pattern across New England since January. Eventually, the increased solar radiation will force the seasons to change, despite what the pattern says.

Meanwhile, out in the western part of the country, a ridge of high pressure (warm/sunny weather), has been dominating, keeping that part of the country in a consistantly warm and dry weather pattern. This pattern was not a surprise to me.

Back in January, the Pacific Ocean continued to have well above normal water temperatures, especially just off of British Columbia, Canada.  This meant it was only a matter of time when this blocking ridge of high pressure would lock into place. As the seasons matured, this is exactly what happened just after this past Christmas.

Once this happened, all the mild Pacific air was blocked from spreading east across the country. Bitterly cold air pooled across eastern Canada, then slowly oozed itself down into New England. Later in January, the polar jet stream became very active, sending endless bundles of atmospheric spin towards the mid-atlantic coast.

When this energy interacted with the above average ocean temperatures, storms formed. As these storms reached our latitude here in southern New England, these storms turned into blizzards.

We never did have a classic Greenland Block this winter. However, a blocking ridge of high pressure in the eastern Atlantic Ocean kept these storms from moving out to sea, allowing them to clock the Boston area with storm after storm.

It wasn’t just Boston either. After these storms socked it to Boston, they moved northeast from here, clobbering Atlantic Canada with unprecedented amounts of snow.

In fact, after the storms diminished here in Boston, they continued up there well into March and April. Many locations in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland received twice the amount of snow that Boston got! It will be a winter that will be talked about for decades to come around here!

Because these mechanisms which brought the severe winter are still in place, the trough of low pressure is not in any hurry to leave. Many times we need a large atmospheric event to rearrange the existing pattern.

Later this week, a strong nor’easter may brush the region with some strong winds and heavy rain. I wouldn’t call it a large atmospheric event, however it may be significant enough to just do the trick!

Getting back to the matter at hand, many of you I’m sure want to know what is up with that map I posted along with the title today! Is it really true? After the winter we have just endured, I would never lead my loyal readers down a deceptive path!

Nothing is gauranteed in life, except for death and taxes of course, but from what NOAA can see, and myself, I do believe a genuine surge of SUMMER like weather is on its way to New England! Don’t get too excited just yet, this is not for this week! However, come the beginning of May, especially after this weekend, the warm weather that we have all been waiting for appears to be in the cards.

Once it arrives, extended long range models seem to want to keep it around for a while. This is exactly what the trees need, and everything else that has had a tough time trying to bloom this spring. By Mother’s Day, I do believe it will be looking and feeling like summer around here!

Speaking of summer, a few friends have been inquiring what my thoughts are for the upcoming summer season. As I mentioned, it’s still a bit early for me to make any definite forecast, as I am still reviewing all the technical discussions, and global patterns.

Technically, we are still in a winter pattern. Later in the season, as we head towards the summer solstice, the true summer pattern will make its presence felt. I will not have a feel for that pattern until we head closer to Memorial Day.

With all that being said, a fairly typical summer seems to be in the cards for most of us. This may mean a summer similar to last year, perhaps a bit warmer. I will tell you this, the sudden surge of warm weather come next week is definitely a good sign for those who enjoy warm summers!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to briefly talk a bit of weather history. Back in 1987, on April 29th, a freak late season snowstorm hit the area. It was a record breaking storm at Boston’s Logan Airport, with 4″ of wet snow falling. As you traveled inland, amounts dramatically increased, with many suburbs to the west and even southwest of Boston receiving well over a foot of snow!

Thankfully, high winds were not a factor in the storm, so tree damage was not as bad as it could of been. I do distinctly remember the snow banks from the storm, hanging around into the first few days of May! This is why I say, you cant’t truly take snow out of the picture until mid-May around here!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. One more tough week, then relief next week! Expect cloudy, cool and unsettled weather for today and tomorrow. Although I’m not expecting a complete washout, there will be periods of showers from time to time, so keep the umbrella handy. Unfortunately, the most concentrated time of the showers appears to be around game time for the Red Sox tonight, so expect some delays.

In addition, if there are any breaks of sun, this will destabilize the atmosphere, which could lead to some thunder, and even some small hail and gusty winds. Temperatures will mainly be in the 50’s during the day, and 40’s at night.

By Wednesday, the cold, upper level low will begin to drift east. This should lead to a slightly warmer day, with highs possibly reaching the low 60’s. Sunshine will lead to afternoon clouds once again, along with the threat of a isolated shower, but this should not be as widespread as Monday and Tuesday.

Thursday may start off with some sunshine, but watch for afternoon clouds to be on the increase. In addition, winds may turn onshore, keeping coastal areas mainly in the 50’s.

A developing nor’easter will be passing southeast of New England on Thursday night into Friday. This storm may be close enough to bring some gusty northeast winds and windswept rains. It will be chilly, with highs mainly in the 40’s to very low 50’s.

If this storm comes closer to the coast than currently forecasted, a more significant impact would be the outcome. This would mean torrential rains and gale force winds along the coast. I will monitor the situation closely, and update this blog if warranted.

Right now, the upcoming weekend still looks to be a bit unsettled. No heavy precipitation is anticipated, but with the cold pool aloft lingering, afternoon clouds and a spot shower can’t be ruled out, especially on Saturday. Sunday may turn sunnier & warmer.

Come next week, this whole system will be lifting well up into Canada, leaving warmer southwesterly winds, and a taste of summer, in its wake!

Well that’s about it for now! Next week, I will be talking about just how warm we can expect temperatures to get as we head into the first week of May. I will also preview what kind of weather I am anticipating for May, as well as reviewing the month of April. I will also continue to discuss my preliminary summer forecast, so stay tuned for that! In the meantime, as meteorologist Dick Albert used to say, the answer is TRUE! For warm weather next week!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back… 4/20/15

Hello! Happy Patriots Day, and happy Marathon Monday! It was a weekend of temperature contrasts here in New England. Saturday was bright and sunny, with a few afternoon fair weather clouds. Temperatures quickly warmed to near 60 degrees early, but then a backdoor cold front chilled the coastline back to near 50 degrees during the afternoon.

Meanwhile, areas to our southwest, including much of Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New York, temperatures soared into the 70’s! Sunday featured similar weather across the region, with chilly temperatures along the coast, and warmer inland.

Such is the climate here in eastern New England during springtime. I have discussed this quite a bit over the years, but this is another classic case of latent heating and cooling. While areas to our south and west warm up quickly during April, conditions here in eastern New England still require a jacket during the day, and the heat on at night!

You may wonder, astronomical spring began exactly one month ago today. Meteorological spring is more than half over, what’s the deal? Why is it still so chilly! Looking at where New England sits geographically, you can see why there are so many booby traps! With Canada a short distance to our north, and the Atlantic Ocean sitting directly to our east, cold weather is always lurking close by, at any given point and time.

So how does latent heating and cooling play a factor in all this? Well, in the fall, the land cools off faster than the ocean. This is why our autumns here in coastal New England are generally milder than the interior. This mild weather typically lasts up until around Halloween. Some years, the ocean can keep the cold and snows away well into the winter.

This past winter was a perfect example of this. Abnormally warm ocean temperatures kept the coastline storm free well into January! As the baroclinic zone inched closer to the coast (cold air from the north/clashing with warm ocean water) it intensified the winter nor’easters.

Once this pattern locked in, well, it was all history after that! The cold arctic air continued to press into southern New England, resulting in February becoming the second coldest month in Boston history! Harbors and bays froze over, turning the landscape into something you would see in Alaska!

With the record cold of this past winter, the ocean temperatures plunged to cold temperatures not seen in years around here. This ties in nicely with latent heating during our spring. It takes longer for the oceans to warm up than the land. With the water temperatures so low, cold air can flow in like lava off of the ocean.

Understanding the basic laws of thermodynamics, warm air is less dense than cold. When warm air rises, the colder, more dense air will rush in underneath to replace the missing air. This is what happens on a large scale level here in eastern New England during the spring.

It’s like a glorified seabreeze, keeping the warm air at bay off to our west, and southwest. Eventually, the sun will continue to warm up the ocean, leading to warmer days arriving by Memorial Day.

I found it amusing reading posts on social media this past weekend of folks breaking out the flip flops, mowing the lawn, wearing shorts and t-shirts, even going to the beach for the first time! To each his own, but really? It was funny seeing the the summer like posts wane as the east winds picked up Saturday afternoon, and the temperatures plummeted by 20 degrees. In all fairness, many have suffered through a bad case of cabin fever, so I do have some sympathy.

On another note, I really wish they would pass some sort ordinance for only allowing flip flops to be worn only between Memorial Day and Labor Day. Also only to be worn at the beach, or in the privacy of your own home. I understand the popularity of flip flops, but I truly believe it’s better to wear nothing at all, than these poor excuses for foot wear. Ok, I have said my flip flop rant for the year!

After such a brutal winter, we have made some progress here in spring. As cool as it’s been, I’m actually quite surprised it hasn’t been even cooler and wetter.  I was even expecting some spring snowfall.

The snowfall has not been the case, but the cooler temperatures have.  March turned out with much below normal temperatures, and so far, April is running just about average temperatures. Despite this, warm spikes and periods of heavy rain have managed to eradicate the deep snowpack we experienced this winter.

While taking a walk yesterday, I did note the grass is starting to green up a bit. Certainly not long enough for a mow just yet. But after this weeks rain, it will be ready to mow by May 1st. Which is just about average time. As for the trees, they seem to running about a week or two behind schedule.

We really need a couple really warm days to get the buds going. I do not see any really warm days for the rest of April. Looks like we are going to have to wait until May for things to really start to bloom around here this year.

Many friends and family have been asking me what I think the upcoming summer will be like. It’s still early, and my official forecast doesn’t come out until the third week in May. However, there are some signs showing up that I would like to pass along to you today.

There are several things to keep in mind moving forward. First, the sun is going into a minimalist dormant cycle. This means there will be less solar radiation than we receive in hotter years. Second, we have a developing El Nino, which may mean more precipitation. Third, the Pacific Ocean is going to continue to feature warmer than normal temperatures, maybe for the rest of 2015, keeping a ridge in place out west, and a broad trough here in the east. And fourth, the Atlantic Ocean may be play a role as well, with below normal water temperatures off the New England coast.

It’s difficult to say for sure from now, and things can certainly change as we head closer to June, but right now I’m leaning towards a cooler, wetter summer for not only New England, but for a good part of the country as a whole. Coming off such a bitter cold and snowy winter, it’s going to take a while for our region to fully heat up.

Because of this delay, summer may not get going until sometime in June. If the Atlantic stays cooler than normal this summer, next fall may feature colder weather arriving earlier than normal. This will make for a shorter summer season, overall.

For folks who love summer, don’t despair. I’m not expecting a year without a summer. In fact, it may very well turn out similar to last summer, and we all remember how beautiful that turned out to be! Also keep in mind we are in a colder, snowier cycle in our patterns. In a year or two, there are signs this may reverse again, bringing us back to milder winters and hotter summers. It’s all cyclical.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Not very springlike. For the rest of your Marathon Monday, look for heavy rain to be moving in! Along with the rain, there will be a gusty east wind picking up to 35 mph. It will also be cold, with highs only making it into the mid 40’s! Such a shame, for having endured the worst winter on record, then having a cold, rainy marathon day. All things equal, we have had a stretch of about 6 years in a row of beautiful weather on this day, so we were due.

Watch for a windswept soaking rain for the first part of tonight, along with the chance of some thunder, say up until about 11 PM. Thereafter, there will be some scattered showers the rest of the night into tomorrow morning. Temperatures will actually warm up a bit, rising up into the 50’s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will actually be on the mild side, with highs in the lower 60’s. Along with the mild temperatures, there will be some periods of sunshine, along with the chance of some showers, especially during the afternoon.

A strong upper level vortex will begin to rotate through New England for the period of Tursday through Sunday. This means much cooler, unstable, and unsettled conditions. Any early morning sunshine will be blotted out by building afternoon clouds. These clouds will yield showers and maybe even some small hail, especially on Thursday and Friday afternoon.

We are lucky there aren’t any coastal storms forecasted to hit New England this weekend. If a storm would of come close, it would be cold enough to support snow in many areas. As it is, high temperatures will barely make into the low 50’s, and lows will be in the 30’s. This is much below average for the date. If you plan on doing some late season skiing or hiking, you can certainly expect periods of snow showers with some accumulations later this week in higher elevations.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have another update on the progress of our spring weather and timetable. I will also give a few more clues on my thoughts for the upcoming summer patterns. I am also going to be talking about a significant late season storm that struck the region in weather history. In the meantime, it doesn’t matter how slow Mother Nature is walking, just as long as she makes progress forward!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

IT’S A GREAT DAY FOR BOSTON! 4/13/15

Good morning! It was quite the weekend here in New England! You could say it was somewhat of a coming out party! Saturday featured breezy conditions, but with full sunshine, temperatures responded nicely during the afternoon, with many areas warming up into the low 60’s. Sunday was by far the best day of the spring so far. After a bit of a chilly start, many communities warmed up to near 70 during the afternoon, under a 100% of ther possible sunshine.

It was a beautiful day up in southeast New Hampshire yesterday. Despite patches of snow lingering, the birds were buzzing with excitement, and the sun just felt so good! For those of us celebrating Greek Easter yesterday, we couldn’t of asked for a better day!

The nice weather sent people out in droves yesterday. After such a brutal winter, who could blame them? While driving through Boston yesterday, I saw people jogging, walking their dogs, sailing, and even sun bathing! I find it amazing that just about 6 short weeks ago, we were still buried under about 3 feet of snow!

With the nice weather, comes the start of baseball season! While baseball is not my favorite sport, it does represent a few things here in Boston. First, opening day means that winter is over. And for many folks, this is the happiest day of the year! It also represents a new beginning, putting the tough winter behind us, and looking forward to summer getaways, going to the beach, and spending time with family and friends. Spring may officially begin on March 20th, but in my mind, it really begins on opening day.

Just several weeks ago, you wouldn’t think the park could be ready for opening day. With nearly 3 feet of snow on the ground, it didn’t look good. However, someone came up with a smart idea to ship black sand in and spread it over the snow. It wasn’t long for the black sand to absorb the heat from the sun, commencing the snow to rapidly melt. I bet black sand is not cheap. They must have shipped this in from a volcanic area such as Iceland or Hawaii!

It’s a good thing the Red Sox started on the road this year. Last week was not very springlike at all around here. In fact, many areas saw snow and sleet on Wednesday, only to turn into a cold, soaking rain at night.

This was not the case up north, however. Wet snow fell throughout the night, even into Thursday morning, sending many communities to break out the sanders and other snow removal equipment. Had it been a degree or two colder, we would of been shoveling snow around here as well Thursday morning.

As bad as the winter was, I tell many people that it could of been even worse. How, you ask? Well, I can’t tell you how many storms have been coming towards Boston this spring, looking like we were going to get accumulating snow, only to suddenly shift at the last second to miss us. Either the track suddenly shifted, or temperatures warmed up at the last second, changing the snow to rain.

Just as much as we were getting hit with every storm during late January and February, we have missed them in March and now April. So you ask me, who’s complaing about this? Well, nobody really. I’m just pointing out the fact that Boston could of easily ended up with another 10 to 20″ of snow this season.

In addition, had the Greenland Block show up as forecasted by computer models, the misery would of been extended well into April. As it turned out, this teleconnection has not been a factor at all this winter. In fact, it has been nearly non-existent for nearly two years now.

Believe me when I tell you, if you’re not a fan of winter, this is a good thing. Although we have received extreme snow accumulations without the NAO being negative, this is still a teleconnection for severe winter weather rconditions along the east coast and for much of southern New England, especially in eastern Massachusetts.

Recently, computer models once again have signaled a strong Greenland Block to develop later on in April. This would of brought cold, damp, miserable weather back into coastal areas. In fact, some computer models were hinting at a bigger storm, with wet snow involved.

The block may still occur later in the spring and into the summer, but by that time, it could mean a different pattern. Last summer, the NAO was predominantly negative, and we enjoyed a cooler, delightful summer.

Looking over the weather maps this morning, I don’t believe that this is going to come to fruition. Again, the models have forecasted this, but have since backed off this morning.

In fact, today, I am happy to declare to everyone, that I do believe that winter is over! I am waving the all clear signal for no more snow! Now, can there be a few wet flakes again? Sure, it’s still April. But overall, I do believe we have finally turned the corner, and that we can finally close the books on winter 2014-15!

Looking back, I would give myself a grade of B for the winter forecast. It would of been an A+ had I stuck to my original forecast issued back in November. Who would of thought Boston would receive nearly 100″ of snow in 30 days? Heading towards the end of January, it looked like the revised forecast was the right way to go…then, as they say, all hell broke loose!

Yes, the historic winter was on the table, but even I was beginning to doubt the validity of the original forecast. This was a good lesson in life, to stick to your guns, you never know what can happen. If you make a forecast or a life decision, just stick with it as long as you can. More times than not, your original research on what you’re doing probably has more merit than you think.

Making a seasonal forecast is like coming up to bat at a baseball game. You may be ready to strike out with two strikes on you. Then, bam! You hit it out of the ball park for a home run! Other times, you may get a triple, a double or just a single. Sometimes you may strike out. The point is, you have to keep swinging, and not give up!

Before I get to the forecast, I did just wanted to review where we are in our spring timetable. As you know, we got off to a slow start. However, I am optimistic that things will begin to pop over the next couple weeks around here. With the warmer weather of this week, watch for the grass to begin to perk up. Also, watch for the forsythia to begin to bloom.

Later in the month, trees will begin bud. Most Leaves should be on the tree by the middle of May here in southern New England, but not until around Memorial Day in northern New England.

Mowing should commence during the first week of May. Also keep in mind, with the warmer weather, pollen and allergy levels will be on the rise here in southern New England.

Again, while it may be spring down here in southern New England. April can still be a wintery month in much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, especially across the interior. In fact, many ski areas are still operating at full strength! As the lower elevations begin to warm rapidly this time of year, higher elevations can remain cold, with frequent snowfalls.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10 on the nice weather scale. Certainly some great weather, but also some rainy episodes from time to time. In other words, fairly typical for this time of the year.

This weeks pollen severity level will be a 3 out of 10. Meaning, some allergies, but nothing severe as of yet. It will be another beautiful spring day today. Watch for sunshine and warm temperatures, with highs near 70 across much of the region!

Tonight will feature increasing cloudiness, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Tuesday will be an unsettled day. Watch for showers to push through the area during the day. There may be some heavier showers during the afternoon. With the cloudy and wet conditions, it won’t be as warm, with highs manily in the 50’s to near 60. Expect these showers to exit the region during the evening. There’s a possibility that the Red Sox game may be delayed, but they should get this game in.

Fair and mild weather should be the rule for both Wednesday and Thursday of this week. Temperatures should be seasonable, with highs near 60 degrees. Right now, another slow moving storm system will begin to push into New England starting on Friday, and possibly continuing into Saturday. It won’t be cold, with highs near 60 each day. I don’t see a complete washout, but it may be unsettled, with a chance of some wet weather from time to time.

If we are lucky, skies should clear on Sunday. It may be breezy and a bit cooler, with highs mainly in the 50’s. Right now, the long range outlook for Marathon Monday looks to feature mainly dry weather, with cmofortable temperatures for the runners. High temperatures should range from between 50 and 60 degrees. Good Luck!!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a updated report on the spring timetable. I will also offer a preliminary summer outlook as to what I’m thinking for this upcoming summer. My official forecast won’t be released until around Memorial Day.

In the meantime, enjoy the sunny weather, warm temperatures, and light winds. Back in February, you may of thought that the snow was never going to melt. But things change, the nice weather has returned.  The storms are over, and today, it’s a great day to be in Boston! Play Ball!

*On a quick side note, this is my fifth anniversary of writing my weather blog! I have now made over 300 entries! I hope everyone enjoys reading them as much as I enjoy writing them! Reviewing the entries over the years, our weather is as fascinating as you think it is! Glad you have been along side for the ride!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

April Snow Showers Will Bring May Flowers…4/6/15

Good morning, everyone! I hope everyone had a Happy Easter Sunday! Being Greek Orthodox, I’m lucky, I get to celebrate all over again this sunday! Overall, it was a changeable weekend of weather here in New England. A early morning thunderstorm rocked me out of bed early on Saturday morning! Then Saturday featured rain changing to heavy wet snow up in the ski resorts, while southern New England experienced gale force northwest winds, under clearing skies. Easter Sunday brought record cold temperatures in far northern New England, while southern areas experienced a brisk, chilly day. Early sunshine faded behind building clouds, with many areas south and west of Boston receiving some rain showers. In fact, in some elevated locations in Connecticut and Rhode Island, the rain fell as snow, with some slushy accumulations!

Welcome to spring in New England! While lower elevations and coastal areas begin to warm up and melt the snow, winter continues to hang on in the interior and higher terrain. In fact, a very distinct temperature gradient has divided New England in half, with northern areas locked in cold and snow, and southern areas trying to bust into spring. This contrast is only going to intensify across the region this week. Fortunately, for most of us down here in southern areas, we will be just warm enough to avoid any further snowfall. However, if you live in New Hampshire, and parts of Maine, be prepared for another visit from Old Man Winter this week!

Snow during April is not unusual. I was actually expecting a much larger event to hit the region here in early April. About a week ago, computer models were depicting a much stronger storm, complete with heavy precipitation of rain and wet snow. With the type of winter pattern that was in place, it was certainly looking like this was on the table. However, Mother Nature had other plans. I suppose for everyone’s sake, we were lucky the pattern relaxed at the last second. This means the worst of the cold and snowy weather will remain just north of our latitude. In fact, areas of northern Maine had record cold temperatures this past weekend, with many areas falling well below zero! This type of cold in April is almost unheard of, even for that region!

As I have been mentioning for a while now, it’s going to be a slow climb up to spring. Record winters, such as the one we experienced, notoriously like to extend their welcome longer than what we would like. Visiting my sister and brother in law up here in coastal New Hampshire this weekend, the remnants of winter linger. Though most of the snow pack is gone, piles from the huge snowbanks, and areas where the sun can’t get to, still remain. In fact, while taking a drive a bit up the coast into southern Maine, the snow pack was even more previlent. While just snow banks remained along the coast, you didn’t have to drive too far inland to start running into deeper snows still remaining on the ground. This was a good example as to how much  living along the coastline can modify the climate.

While taking our Sunday afternoon drive, my sister and brother in law mentioned to me how they believed that we should not have any drought worries here in New England after the record snowy winter. They were quite surprised when I answered no, quite the contrary! Before the winter, much of southern New England was in a moderate drought. Late autumn rains alleviated this situation. Then, with the record winter snowfall, you would think that we have had enough precipitation to avoid drought concerns.

You will be surprised to learn, as was I, that the winter actually finished drier than normal! Here is the reason why. If you recall, most of December and January were dry, with very little precipitation. Remember, December was one of the least snowiest on record in Boston! Most of January was dry too.

Then the first blizzrd hit on January 26th. Yes, this was a blockbuster storm, with many areas receiving over 2 ft of windblown snow. Then, the next thirty days was history, with nearly 100″ of snow falling in Boston, paralyzing the city in a way in which we have not seen since the Great Blizzard of 1978. On average, 1″ of rain equates to 10″ of snow.

This is what meteorologists and weather folks such as myself call the snow ratios. It is very crucial to understand this concept in forecasting snow amounts. Everyone, including myself, have been burned at one point or another, due to not forecasting the ratios properly.

There is a tremendous amount of variabilty that goes into forecasting this! Sometimes, when it’s too cold, not enough moisture will fall, and it ends up being less snow than forecasted. Other times, if the temperature is not cold enough, like a couple saturday’s ago, the snow will melt on contact, resulting in slushy accumulations. This winter, the perfect mix of moisture and cold air delivered rapidly accumulating snows, especially right over Boston.

However, the ratios were more like 2 to 1, or even 3 to 1 at times. This means 1″ of liquid, overachieved, delivering 20 or even 25″ of snow! Because of the high ratios, and low density of the snow, the snow was able to accumulate to record proportions! Not as much precipitation as you think fell over the historic stretch. After the storms finished, we returned to a cold and somewhat dry pattern for the rest of March. So despite all the snow we received this winter, we could be looking at drought conditions returning to parts of massachusetts this summer!

Another thing to consider. As you know, it was an intense winter. With the first part of the winter being cold and very dry, the ground got a chance to freeze solid. Then the snows came. When a thick blanket of snow falls like that in such a short period of time, it tends to insulate the ground, maintaining its frozen state. We have been very fortunate, as the record snow pack has been for the most part, harmlessly melted away.

With the frozen ground, I believe much of this snow did not get absorbed into the earth. Rather I believe alot of it went down the drain. Also, with the snow having such little water content, much of this snow sublimated. This means it naturally went from a solid state into a vapor, or just evaporated! I am by no means lessening the hardship this winter meant for everyone. I am only pointing out some of the ways Mother Nature tends to her business.

Enough about winter…what about spring?? As mentioned above, we have a bit of setback coming up this week. This was forecasted to happen back in March. After the chilly weather this week, I do see a warmer period of weather arriving here in New England for the middle two weeks of April. This is good news for trees and flowers.

Right now, it’s still looking like the middle of winter out there. With the rain coming this week, and warmer temperatures on the way for next week, watch for the trees and flowers to start to bud and flower. This will occur first along the south and east coast of southern New England, and will slowly start to spread inland in the coming weeks. By the time May arrives, flowers and trees will be blooming in full force in southern areas. If you live in the north, you may have to wait until the middle or end of May to experience Green Up!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to briefly mention about a historic storm in weather history. It was 33 years ago today when a full fledged spring blizzard hammered eastern Massachusetts. The storm would of been impressive for the middle of january, never mid April. It hit with wind driven powder snow, gale force winds, and frequent thunder and lightning to boot! By the time the storm finished late at night, much of the area got socked with between 1 and 2 ft of snow! An cold upper level disturbance the next day kept it cloudy and bitterly cold, with Boston only reaching a high of only 16 degrees! I remember this storm well, as it only increased my fascination with New England weather!

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Not very springlike this week. As a temperature boundary sets up across New England, watch for a mainly cloudy day. With winds mainly off the ocean, look for temperatures to be chilly along the coast, with highs manily in the 40’s.

Tonight will continue to be cloudy and damp. There may be a few showers from time to time. It won’t be that cold, with overnight lows mainly in the low 40’s. A wavy frontal boundary will be the focal point of periods of precipitaion from Tuesday through Thursday.

With an area of high pressure building to our north, and low pressure passing to our south, a cold east northeast wind will result in damp, chilly to even cold weather across the area. Right now, it looks to fall mainly as rain here in southern New England. However, as the cold air strengthens on Wednseday, this rain may change to some wet snow across New Hampshire and southern Maine. Temperatures will will cold and raw, with highs mainly in the upper 30’s!

During the coldest part of the event, some wet snow can not be ruled out even as far south as the Boston area on Wednesday night. This will not be a big storm down here, however, snow may be enough to cause slippery travel once one goes north into New Hampshire later Wednseday into Thursday morning.

A developing southerly wind may tend to scour out the cold weather, especially as we head later into Friday. I still can’t rule out some showers from time to time. Right now, the weather looks to improve as we head into next weekend. Saturday looks to be dry and milder, with highs in the 50’s. Sunday may briefly turn cooler and blustery, with highs mainly in the 40’s, with a slight chance of a shower. Looking further ahead, a genuine surge of warm weather looks to be on tap next week, with many areas warming into the 60’s!

Well that’s about it for now! in next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the weather patterns to make sure there is no chance of anymore snow coming. If I find it to my liking, I will be prepared to sound the all clear signal for now more snow for this season, and finally close the books om winter 2014-15! In the meantime, I am hoping that this will be the last time I mention snow in the forecast for the season! Check in next week to be sure!

Thanks for reading!

Happy Greek Easter!

Pete

Spring, Slowly Heading North! 3/30/15

Hello, everyone! It was yet another wintery weekend across much of New England. Saturday featured a steady wet snow and cold temperatures much of the day. While Sunday featured brilliant sunshine much of the day, temperatures still remained about 10 degrees below normal for the date. I believe this was the 10th weekend in a row that featured snow falling across the area.

With plenty of snow still up in ski country, yesterday would of been a fine day to do some spring skiing. Even Blue Hills is still open for business with a formidable base still hanging on for this late in the season.

Saturday was an interesting day, indeed. After the winter we had just gone through, most folks were not too happy watching the wet snow fall during the first weekend of spring.

For a weather enthusiast such as myself, it was a very interesting day. I must say, once again, we were lucky we weren’t shoveling Saturday night. Although I forecasted 2 to 4″ of snow to fall, most folks didn’t have to break out the shovel. But why? Computer models certainly forecasted it to be cold enough for snow.

However, as it turned out, it was just warm enough at ground level for the snow to just melt on contact. If you looked around, you may have noticed snow accumulating on pine trees. This is because it was just cold enough just above the ground for the snow to stick.

In fact, as I drove home from work on Saturday evening, I took a drive up to the Bellevue Hill area in West Roxbury. This happens to be the highest elevation in Boston, rising to 330 ft above sea level. Leaving Roslindale Village, with no snow accumulation, I headed up Washington St, and began noticing snow clinging to the trees.

As I continued to climb in elevation, there was even more snow. By the time I reached the hill, it had transformed into somewhat of a winter wonderland, with 3″ of snow clinging to all the pine trees! This all happened in less than 2 miles distance!

As I headed off the hill towards my house, there was less snow, but still was evident on the pine trees. This is very typical in spring storms, as elevation plays a huge role in how much snow you will receive.

The Great Blue Hill in Milton, Ma. is another good example of this. Rising to an elevation of 635 ft above sea level, 5″ of wet snow accumulated on the summit! A good rule of thumb, the temperature will be 3 to 6  degrees colder, for every 1000 ft you go up in elevation, depending if it’s damp or dry outside. This is called the lapse rate. In Saturday’s situation, this made perfect sense. Even a 1 degree difference can make the difference of accumulating snow, and no snow!

Any more snow in our future? Well, maybe. However, I am pleased to bring everyone good news this morning. Looking over the latest computer data, I can definitely begin to see signs of the winter pattern breaking down. Not a day too soon for most folks!

I can feel the excitement through the computer screen! Does this mean break out the flip flops? Get out the shorts and t-shirts? Start doing cart wheels in the street? Well, not quite just yet. It’s still early, and we still will have setbacks.

There is a slight chance for a coating of snow tomorrow night, then another brief burst of snow this Saturday night before Easter. Earlier, computer models were forecasting an all out blizzard for Easter Sunday. Fortunately, this is no longer being shown on computer models this morning.

In between these two events, I do see more and more evidence to suggest more surges of springlike weather heading our way! We may hit 60 degrees for the first time this Friday! This is a good thing. With March being on the cold side, quite a bit of snow from the record winter still remains around the region.  We’re now heading into April, and folks really want to get spring activities going.

It’s slow, but progress is being made. As I have said before, you can’t stop the change of the seasons! It’s inevitable! As we head into April, solar radiation will begin to rapidly increase. Any snow in sunny areas will rapidly begin to melt. With the increase in sun, this will lead to a term we use around here called Green Up!

First, you will begin to see the grass coming to life, and start turn green! Expect this to happen a little later than normal this year. I would expect you to begin seeing this around Boston during the third week in April. Thereafter, trees will begin to flower during the last week of April. Some hardy flowers will begin to bloom after April 10th.

So, it may look gloomy out there right now, but all it takes is a couple very warm days to start getting everything going. Of course, with trees beginning to bloom, this brings on a new allergy season from all of the pollen. Because of the tough winter, I am expecting allergy season to kick in sometime in early May this year.

Speaking of April, I am expecting  temperatures to average a bit above normal this year. After a chilly start, look for warmer than normal temperatures to arrive after April 10th. I am also expecting a wetter than normal April this year. We normally average close to 3.6″ of rain, so a couple good rainstorms are a possibility.

Boston averages about 1.5″ of snow in April. We may muster up enough to come close to this average this year. Some years, it doesn’t snow at all, while others, a heavy snowstorm still can occur. By in large, I do believe the worst of the snow is now behind us this year.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to briefly talk about a storm in weather history. On March 29th, 1984, a severe spring storm hit much of Massachusetts. A dramatic temperature difference of 90’s to our south, and teens to our north, fueled a intense storm, which passed off the mid atlantic coast.

As this storm moved south of New England, a fierce nor’easter developed. Hurricane force winds, along with driving sleet and wet snow plastered everything in sight. The combination of icy snow and strong winds, resulted in many tree branches snapping, or whole trees being toppled.

This left thousands of people without power across the Boston area. Up to 10″ of icy snow & sleet fell just inland from the shore, with up to 20″ falling in the Worcseter Hills. Thankfully, nothing like this is in the forecast this year!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. This week, the scale reverses. so the higher number means better weather. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Not so impressive for first nice weather scale. It can only go up from here!

Expect a fairly gloomy day today, with any snow showers this morning ending. Later in the day, another line of mixed rain and snow showers will be traversing the area. It will be milder, but still below normal with highs in the mid 40’s.

Watch for any showers to exit the region early tonight, with skies clearing thereafter. It will be on the cold side, with lows mainly in the 20’s.

Tuesday will start off sunny, but watch for increasing clouds during the afternoon. It will be on the brisk side, with highs in the low 40’s. This is about 10 degrees below average for the date.

A quick moving storm sysytem will pass south of New England tomorrow night. Along the south coast of New England, a quick burst of snow may accumulate between 1 and 2.”

These little storms are tricky this time of year. If it decides to track a bit further to the north, a couple inches of snow could accumulate as far north as the Mass Pike.

Right now, for the sake of everyone, I am going with just the coating idea, if that. Any early snow will exit very quickly on Wednesday, Happy April Fool’s Day! Watch for skies to become sunny, with highs mainly in the upper 40’s.

It will turn milder on Thursday, with some sun, but also watch for increasing clouds during the afternoon. Highs will reach the low 50’s. A surge of warm air will arrive on Friday, with high temperatures nearing 60 degrees! However, along with the warmth, may come the chance of showers from time to time.

Later on Friday, a cold front will slowly push through New England. Another wave of low pressure is going to develop along this front and increase the chance for rain Friday night into Saturday. Too bad, as we will probably not be able to see the full “Pink” moon Friday night.

Temperatures will slowly be cooling. At this point, it looks like it won’t get cold fast enough for snow until the tail end of the storm Saturday night. If there is enough moisture left, a brief turn to wet snow may occur, resulting in a coating of snow.

Whatever snow that may be falling early on Easter Sunday, will qickly end. Skies should then become Sunny with blustery conditions. It won’t be terribly warm out, as high temperatures will only be in the mid 40’s. Another surge of warmer weather may arrive at the beginning of the following week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focussing on where exactly spring is, and when we should expect it to arrive in full force here in New England. I will also have your opening day forecast for Fenway Park! As far as I’m concerned, that’s the official start of spring for me! In the meantime, hang in there everyone, the warm weather is on its way. Soon, we’ll be complaining how hot it is outside!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

“Yeti Snow Dance” to yield more snow! 3/23/15

Hello! Lots of hello’s this morning, but is anyone listening? Specifically, is Mother Nature listening? On the very first day of spring, a small snow storm brought yet another couple inches of snow to the Boston area. At this point, it’s not the amount that hurts. It’s like sprinkling salt on an open wound. With this weekend’s snow, Boston is now over 110″ of snow for the season.

The additional snows falling this weekend, sparked a bit of a backlash directed towards me from lifelong neighborhood friends on Facebook. It was all in good nature! With the lingering wintery weather, I fully expected some jokes coming my way. One of my buddies actually accused me of doing a “Yeti Snow Dance” since the age of 4. For those of you not familiar with what a “Yeti” is, it’s a mythical snow creature, or Abominable Snowman.

To my surprise, there actually is a Boston Yeti! There is a real person, dressed up in a abominable snowman costume, helping folks shovel out their cars, and spreading winter cheer across the city! This person has remained anonimous, and only wants to help people struggling through this record breaking historic winter. All proceeds from his fame, are being donated to charity.

Who knows who this mysterious person is? My buddy could be on to something. I may not be the Boston Yeti, but I can’t deny not having a sacred “snow dance” since 1972!

Along with Boston, The Great Blue Hill, located 10 miles southwest of Boston, also joined the record breaking snow party over the weekend, with now just over 145″ of snow falling this winter!

The good news is that it is late March now, and the snow doesn’t stick around for too long. In fact, the new snow that fell, melted on Saturday afternoon, as temperatures warmed up into the low 40’s as some sun broke through the clouds.

How about the the glacial snowpack still in place? Forget about it! That snow stayed put, as bitter cold air poured back into New England Saturday night, on the heals of gusty northwest winds.

In fact, Sunday was a very cold day for the middle of winter, never mind for springtime. With very gusty northwest winds, temperatures didn’t even make it to freezing in most of the region. Along with the gust winds, wind chills were only in the single digits most of the day! Not very springlike!

If there is anything positive that I could pass along to you this morning, it’s that we actually have been very lucky over the past several weeks. Yes, lucky! A slight shift in the upper level pattern, has resulted in several snow storms passing just to our south.

If these storms had come a 100 miles further north, Boston could have been looking at an additional 15 to 20″ of snow for this season! These storms, although not as significant as the ones that belted Boston during February, have been adding up across the New York City and philidelphia regions.

Although it may seem that Boston has not received alot of snow this March, we actually have already received the average amount. Boston typically receives about 8″ of snow during March. It’s a bit deceiving, due to the fact of the monster storms we received in February. Taking 2 to 3″ snowfalls at a time, is much easier to take than 2 to 3 ft at a time!

Any other positive signs I can offer, today? Yes! On Friday, we finally reached the vernal equinox, or spring! On this date, both daylight and nightime are of equal times. From this point forward, we will be gaining more daylight, until the summer solstice. In fact, tonight’s sunset is at 7:00 PM!

With the increase sunlight, the days will be getting longer, and temperatures will be getting warmer! I have said it before, there’s no stopping the seasons changing! As long as the earth maintains its 23.5 degree tilt, the seasons will be changing, despite what Old Man Winter says!

As we move in our orbit around the sun, we are entering the zone, where we are tilting closer to the sun, thus allowing more solar radiation to reach the Northern Hemisphere. With the increasing radiation, the snowpack will begin to rapidly melt on the “sunny” side of the street. In areas protected by the sun, snow will linger well into April this year. Any snow that falls this time of year is quckly baked away by the strengthening sun.

Now for the bad news. Because of the unprecedented severe winter pattern, it’s still going to take a bit of work by the sun to get us out of it. As I have mentioned in previous blogs, the sun has to overcome latent heating. This means, it takes longer for the oceans to warm up as compared to land masses. Because of this, fall is warmer here in eastern New England, and spring is colder.

In addition, we are still dealing with a stubborn winter pattern that looks like it just wants to decay overy New England, rather than just pull out into Canada. One piece of good news I have, is that it now does not appear that the Greenland Block is going to be a factor in our weather patterns this early spring.

This means I am not looking for a a deep storm to lock off and stall south of New England. The Greenland Block has not been a reliable teleconnection for winter weather for 2 years now here in New England. Computer models have been signaling it, but when push comes to shove, it doesn’t happen.

What I am concerned about, is that the Greenland Block starts to show up later in the spring, heading in the summer. This could fowl up plans for folks looking for a hot summer. I will be monitoring this as we head deeper into the spring.

Just because there will be no Greenland Block, does not mean we can not have a spring storm, or more snow. Look at all the snow we had this winter, with a positive NAO! In fact, I am expecting more accumulating snow for much of eastern Massachusetts, before we are fully out of this.

The reason is the persistant winter pattern, and cold ocean temperatures to our east. Because of the abnormally warm temperatures off the Pacific coast, and blocking high pressure extending into western Canada, a deep trough of low pressure is still going to persist in the east, at least until April 10th. Within this flow, areas of atmospheric spin, or vorticity maximums are flowing through like a leaf on a river.

Most will pass to our north. However, if one of these vortices pass to our south, it could be a whole different ballgame. With cold air to our north, these bowling ball like features can rapidly intensify when they reach the Atlantic Ocean, resulting in a significant early spring snow storm.

This pattern is still on the table, at least through April 10th. In fact, some computer models are hinting of one of these features for this upcoming weekend. If this fizzles, there is another chance of this happening during the first week of April. Because the atmosphere is in a state of flux, computer models have trouble picking up these features this time of the year.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity spring forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Coming out of the depths of winter, with a spike of mild weather this week! No today, though! The sun may say spring, but the temperature says winter! We will have ineffective sunshine for the rest of the afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to reach 30 in many locations. This is a almost 20 degees below average! Expect clear and winterlike cold tonight, with near record low temperatures possible. Most locations will fall into the single digits and teens…brrrrr!!

Tuesday will still be cold. However, with the warm March sun, look for temperatures to moderate a bit during the afternoon, into the 30’s. Expect fair and cold weather to continue tomorrow night, with lows in the teens and twenties.

Watch for a bit milder weather to arrive on Wednesday. Along with the milder temperatures, expect increasing clouds during the day. Temperatures should warm up into the lower 40’s. There could be some rain showers moving through the area at night.

Expect windy weather on Thursday. With the cloudy skies, temperatures may hold in the low 50’s.  Again, watch those winds! They will be roaring out of the south and southwest, to nearly 50 mph!

Also watch for increasing chance of areas of showers and heavy rain to move into the region, especially during the afternoon and at night. There’s even an outside shot at a rumble of thunder as a strong cold front approaches.

This strong cold front will be moving off the coast on Friday. Watch for colder and windy weather to arrive during the day. In fact, it may turn cold enough for some snow showers to visit some communities.

Now for the tricky part of the forecast. It seems as if the past several weekends have featured a tricky situation. This cold front that moved through on Friday, is going to stall off the coast. Some computer models have been hinting at additional storminess developing on this front and spreading into eastern New England.

This is a tough call. It certainly will be turning colder this weekend. So any thoughts of a beautiful spring weekend is out the window.

Now the question is, is it going to snow again? Right now, computer models are keeping this out to sea. However, if one looks at the upper levels of the atmosphere at 500 millibars (18,000 ft), it shows one of those bowiling ball features going south of New England, with winds aloft pointing it do develop into a storm along our coast.

For this reason, I am going to forecast a storm to develop along the coast, and possibly turn into a small nor’easter, with wet snow and northeast winds along the coast. With the progressive nature, and no Greenland Block, this storm should be a quick hitter, with light amounts of snow, especially compared to what we have received this winter.

This is for Saturday and Saturday night timeframe. A friend of the family is getting married on Sunday in coastal New Hampshire. Right now, I would say this storm, if it comes, should be moving out of the region in time for a dry day! Fingers crossed! It will be on the windy and cold side.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring the possibility of yet another storm threat for the first week of April. I will also try to have your spring timetable. With so much snow on the ground, I have delayed this information until further notice. Needless to say, we are behind. A warmer second half of April can turn things around in a hurry. In the meantime, I’m may not be the best dancer on the floor, but you should see this snow dance!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

RECORD, BROKEN! SPRING ARRIVES, FRIDAY! 3/16/15

Hello! It was a very unsettled weekend across much of New England. Much of the Boston area was very fortunate on Saturday, as temperatures warmed up just enough to make precipitation fall as a cold rain for much of the day.

Had it been a couple degrees colder, a good 10″ of heavy wet snow would of been the end result. As the storm pulled east of the region on Sunday, colder air plunged back into Boston, changing rain showers to a period of heavy snow squalls.

This is when the excitement of the day occurred! Boston had been sitting at just 2″ away from breaking the record for snowiest winter set back in 1995-96. Watching web cams, and reading reports on Twitter, Logan Airport was reporting heavy snow for nearly 2 hours straight.

I was waiting anxiously for the report from Logan Airport. Then at 7:00 P.M. Logan Airport and the NWS reported in that Boston had broken the record for all time snowiest winter in recorded history. With 2.9″ of snow falling, Boston broke the record by one inch, and now stands at 108.6″ of snow for the season! Old record now in second place at 107.6.”

This snowfall that broke the record was very interesting. A couple friends of mine contacted me and called foul, with the official accumulation. It’s true, even I looked outside my home here in West Roxbury, and measured barely an inch of snow.

However, as I explained to them, the heaviest of the snow squalls were confined to right along the immediate coast of Boston, including Logan Airport. And since Logan Airport is the official observation site for Boston, a new record was set! Looking at web cams and some pictures, I can assure you, snow was heavier at the airport, and that a good 3″ of snow did accumulate.

This is interesting, because in many winter storms, Logan Airport typically reports less snow than surrounding communities. This is because of the modifying effect the warm ocean has at the observation site.

Not this winter, though! As storms approached the area this winter, they encountered bitterly cold, arctic air sitting over Boston. When this moisture collided with the arctic air, snow was enhanced during several storms this winter, burying coastal communties from the north shore, through Boston, and also the south shore of Boston with unprecedented accumulations of snow!

You would think now that we have broken the record, winter will just go away, right? I mean, how much more can it snow? Friends and family keep asking me, WHEN IS THIS WINTER GOING TO END???

Folks, I would like to say it’s ending on Friday. Astronomically speaking, yes, it ends Friday with the arrival of spring. However, looking at the latest computer guidance and overall pattern, this sucker is going to roll right into April.

So what does this mean? Overall, for about the next 2 to 3 weeks, you can expect below normal, to even well below normal temperatures for much of New England. This does not mean it will be bitter cold, like it was back in February. When the pattern temporarily relaxes, there also may be some warmer days at times.

Because spring begins Friday, solar radiation will begin to increase markedly across the Northern Hemisphere. This will modify the arctic air outbreaks, leading to more chilly days, rather than cold.

With that being said, this winter is not going down without a fight. Looking at the pattern, there still will be days that will have a sting to the air. This is especially true during nightime,  if it’s cloudy out, or when precipitation is falling.

Speaking of precipitation, more is coming. To be clear, more snow is coming. We have broken the record, and are in uncharted territory. Now, with the threat of more snow, we will be just adding to an already unprecedented snow season.

As a weatherman, this pattern is about exciting as it gets! For people who want winter over, not so much! The pattern is still loaded with potential! Will this potential be realized is the big question.

As mentioned above, winter is not going down without a fight this year. At the same time, spring has sprung across the south, and is trying to force itself into northern regions. This is resulting in a clash of the air masses, with warm humid air from the south, colliding with cold, dry air from Canada.

The main driver for all the winter mayhem was the Pacific Ocean temperatures. Much warmer than normal temperatures off the Pacific coast brought a near record warm and dry winter for much of the west, including British Columbia and up into Alaska.

This pattern has persisted and has not diminished yet. This has built a blocking ridge of high pressure in this region, cutting off mild Pacific air from reaching New England.

When this ridge builds north, into western Canada, cold air pools east of there, and then crashes into eastern North America, especially here in New England this winter. This ridge is expected to build north again into western Canada over the next couple weeks. This will keep the colder than normal pattern locked into New England.

The one teleconnection that has been missing this winter, has been the Greenland Block. Over the next two weeks, computer models have been forecasting the Greenland Block to develop. Should the block develop, it would slow down a storm along the east coast.

This, along with the available heat energy of a warming spring sun, clashing with leftover arctic air from the winter, could produce a memorable springtime nor’easter for many along the east coast.

Which areas, I’m not sure just yet. However, given the winter pattern, I would expect the mid-atlantic region, along with southern New England to be in the mix. This is not a lock, but it is something that I am monitoring very carefully.

If this were to happen, watch for the period towards the end of March, beginning of April time frame. This storm could produce heavy, wet snow, powerful northeast winds, and coastal flooding. For the sanity of the general public, pray that this does not happen

Now, for the good news! After this period of cold and potentially stormy weather, the trough is forecasted to retrograde into the western part of the country. As we head to approximately April 10th,  high pressure should build westward from the Atlantic ocean along the east coast, including us here in New England.

This will bring warmer temperatures and rapid snow melt, and finally bring an end to winter 2014-15. Thereafter, I am expecting a much warmer second half of spring here in New England. This is the period from mid-April, to Memorial Day. So that is something to look forward to for sure!

One thing to keep in mind, it may take coastal areas a bit longer to warm up this year. Remember, it wasn’t too long ago giant icebergs were floating around in our bays and harbors! The ocean is still cold, and will take quite a bit of solar energy to warm back up. So chilly sea breezes are likely along the coast well into May.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10 on the severity scale. Milder today and tomorrow, but back into the deep freeze later, along with the chance of snow! For the rest of today, expect increasing clouds, with temperatures warming up into the lower 40’s.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Late tonight, some rain showers will begin to traverse the region. Expect a wet morning commute tomorrow, with rain showers slowing traffic down.

It will not rain all day, however. Expect the sun to come out during the late morning and afternoon. Hold on to your hat! It will turn windy, and temperatures will turn colder late in the day, from the 40’s to the 30’s.

As cold air pours into the region tomorrow night, there is the possibility of a few snow squalls across the area. Snow squalls typically accumulate a dusting to an inch. However, with falling temperatures, roads can easily become icy.

Mid-winter cold will be the rule for Wednesday! It will be windy and colder, with highs barely making it to freezing…brrr!! Wind chills will be even lower, so bundle up for winter cold!

It will remain dry and cold for Wednesday night into Thursday. Lows will be in the teens and twenties, and highs will recover back up into the 30’s to near 40 degrees during the afternnon. Watch for increasing clouds on the first day of spring on Friday, with highs near 40.

A storm will threaten the region Friday night into Saturday. Happy Spring? Right now, the storm looks like it will come close enough to the region for snow to begin Friday night and continue into Saturday.

Temperature profiles are tricky, however, if the precipitation comes down hard enough, look for a moderate snowstorm to be the result. Let’s call it 3 to 6″ for now. If this system intensifies further to what models are showing now, a larger, a more disruptive nor’easter type storm could be the outcome.

On the flip side, because of the time of year, if a weaker storm develops, and further offshore, less snow will fall, with more rain being the outcome. Spring storms are very tricky, and are very dependent on thermal profiles, and dynamic cooling.

Keep in mind, this is not the storm I am monitoring for later in the month. I will update this blog, and post updates on Facebook and Twitter if conditions warrant later in the week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating everyone on the possibility of the major east coast storm for later in the month. I will also be updating everyone on the progress of when winter will end. In the meantime, follow the path through the meadow. Eventually, spring will arrive with colors of green and yellow!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day!!

Pete

A BRIEF, SPRING FLING! 3/9/15

Hello, again! It turned out to be quite a nice weekend around much of New England. Saturday started out on the very cold and crisp side. Sunday featured more clouds and some snow flurries during the morning. However, skies suddenly cleared, and sunshine was the theme for the balance of the afternoon.

This was a welcome change, especially in comparison to what we have been enduring this winter. With the early March sunshine, temperatures soared into the low 40’s across much of the region!

This sent people, who have suffered through a serious case of cabin fever this winter, to the great outdoors! The only problem with yesterday, was all that white stuff (or in some areas black) still clogging up the streets everywhere.

Despite the 2 feet of snow still on the ground, and nearly 6 foot snowbanks, people still got out there to enjoy the day. Whether it was to walk the dog,  or just to take new baby out for the first time, it was a chance to walk around without feeling the sting from Old Man winter!

It’s true, there are many things to be optimistic about with weather these days. First, the days are getting longer. Along with turning the clocks ahead this past weekend, we are gaining more sunlight each and every day.

In fact, by the end of March, it won’t be getting dark until abot 7:00 PM! After the Spring Equinox, we will begin to accelerate in gaining even more daylight until we reach the Summer Solstice.

Second, as mentioned earlier, the Spring Equinox arrives in just 11 days! On this day, day and night are of equal length. After that, solar radiation rapidly begins to increase, and the days become markedly warmer.

Third, with the increase in solar radiation, the current glacier will begin to melt. Slowly at first, then much more rapidly after the equinox arrives. In addition, any new snow that may fall, doesn’t last long, as the sun melts it quickly.

Yesterday, I was at a family gathering celebrating my niece’s birthday. Her actual birthday was back in February. However, due to successive blizzards each weekend, it was postponed until we had a break in the weather.

As you can imagine, conversation centered around the events of this past winter. In particular, everyone wanted to know when all of this snow was going to melt, and when this winter is going to be OVER! All my nieces were very anxious, as they had enough of the cold and snow, and wanted spring!

Ok. Here’s the deal. This has been a unprecedented winter here in Boston. As mentioned above, technically, we are still in winter.  I understand, after a barrage of winter storms like we had, folks want spring as soon as March hits. As I have said before, March can be the cruelest of months. I believe, in the end, this March will be no exception.

A few things are happening here. First, all of the heavy snow we had, may create more snow and cold. This is called an albedo effect. Meaning the sun’s rays get reflected off the white snow, and doesn’t allow the ground to warm up as quick as it would if it were bare. So when we have such a deep snowpack on the ground, it’s easier for cold weather and snow to come back. For example, the temperatures yesterday may have easily been 10 degrees warmer had there been no snow on the ground.

Second, there is a latent heating and cooling to overcome. Meaning, the land heats up more quickly than the ocean in the spring, and cools off faster in the autumn. This means  New England tends to stay colder in the spring longer than areas to our southwest, and stays milder in the fall, because of the warmer ocean.

Third, do not underestimate the power the Atlantic Ocean has on our climate. I have mentioned this before, what kept us warmer than normal the first part of this winter, actually was the catalyst in delivering the epic blizzards to Boston later in the winter.

This is because of the increased baroclinic zone (difference in temperature between the land and the ocean), which set up, epecially here in eastern New England. In addition, because of the bitter cold water temperatures, and all of the ice built up in the bays and harbors, the weather will be slow to warm up around here this spring.

So when is all going to end? As I discussed with friends and family, not soon enough! Winters like this typically do not go down without a fight! With the milder temperatures coming up over the next couple days, people may begin to believe that winter is over. From the guidance I have been reviewing today, I am afraid I have some bad news to deliver.

You would think, after record snows and cold, that spring would arrive quickly this year. This does not look to be that kind of year. With a low solar sun cycle, warm water still off the Pacific coast, and plenty of cold air still up in Canada, this winter may have an end game to make this the worst winter ever recorded in history here in Boston. As if it hasn’t been bad enough already! After a very brief relaxation to the pattern this week, Mother Nature is loading up for one final assualt on the region that will send this winter into all time historic proportions.

Many times I have mentioned the Greenland Block in my posts. This is a teleconnection we use to track cold outbreaks and winter storms here in New England. It now appears the Greenland Block will be making its presence felt the second part of March and the beginning of April.

The Greenland Block develops when high pressure builds over Greenland. This forces cold air from Canada down into the eastern part of the United States. It is also associated with major east coast storms. Because of the higher pressure to our north, it tends to intensify and slow down the forward progress of coastal storms, lashing eastern New England with heavy snows and strong winds.

Should this block develop as computer models are forecasting, a anomolous period of  severe winter weather could be in store for Boston from March 20th to April 10th. Another blockbuster storm is not out of the question in patterns like this. After the winter we have already endured, it’s almost inconceivable something like this is possible.

I don’t want  everyone to panic just yet. Things can change rapidly this time of year. What looked like a certain pattern developing on computer models one day, is gone the next. Winter is fighting hard to hang on. Eventually, the change of the seasons catches up, and the winter ends. Let’s see if this is fact or fictional. If it does occur, it will be yet another amazing feat by Mother Nature, in a already historic winter.

With that being said, this pattern has been consistantly showing up on several of the reliable long range computer models we use, so I believe it may have merit. At the very least, Boston should accumulate enough snow to send this winter into the record books as the snowiest in recorded history.

If there is a sliver lining. I do believe, once we get beyond this final stretch of winter weather, the trof of low pressure will finally lift out of New England, allowing a wamer, drier pattern to arrive for the second half of spring!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10 on the severity scale. Midweek warmth will be replaced by colder temperatures and the threat of more snow.

Look for alot of sunshine for the rest of your Monday. Along with the sun, look for temperatures to warm up into the mid 40’s across the area. With the bright sun and warmer temperatures, look for melting snow, and shrinking snowbanks.

Tonight will feature increasing clouds, with temperatures falling back into the upper 20’s and low 30’s.

Tuesday will be a cloudy day. A storm coming up the coast may spread some light rain along the south coast, perhaps briefly up to the Mass Pike during the afternoon. I am not anticipating anything heavy at this point, however. Look for the mild temperatures to continue, with highs in the lower 40’s. Skies should clear tomorrow night, with lows dropping into the 20’s and lower 30’s across the area.

If it remains sunny on Wednesday, temperatures may soar into the lower 50’s! This may be our first true taste of spring around Boston! With temperatures like this, you can expect another 6″ or so of snow to melt off the snowpack, with a total of 10 to 12″ melted off the snowpack, including today and tomorrow.

A cold front will move through the area Wednesday night, with temperatures dropping mainly into the 20’s. Despite some warmth from the mid March sun, expect colder weather for Thursday and Friday, with highs struggling to get into the 30’s.

Now for the tricky part of the forecast. A significant storm will be moving north into the Ohio Valley. Typically, this would bring a warm surge of air up the coast resulting in heavy rain for southern New England.

However, it appears the block may begin to start influencing our weather, as this storm may run into the block in the Ohio Valley, then begin to transfer its energy towards the mid-atlantic coast.

If this storm develops fast enough and tracks just south of New England, the potential exists for a significant nor’easter across much of western and central New England. Right now, the potential exists for heavy wet snow for parts of New England.

I would favor more rain than snow across eastern Massachusetts, including Boston.  However, parts of western Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and New York could receive heavy wet snow from this storm. If the storm lingers, the rain may change to wet snow even in Boston the deeper we move into the weekend. I will update this blog if I feel conditions warrant later in the week. This could be the first of several winter storms to threaten the region between March 20th and 30th.

Well that’s about it for now! In my next post, I will be monitoring just how severe winter’s encore will be for us here in New England. I will also have a more detailed look into our spring forecast and timetable on when we should expect genuine spring weather moving forward. In the meantime, enjoy the spring like temperatures the next couple days, come next week at this time, we may be reminiscing as to just how wonderful that spring fling was!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Marching Towards The Record! 3/2/15

Hello! Welcome to meteorological spring! It was yet another wintery weekend across much of New England! Saturday was bright and sunny, but on the cold side. Saturday night was clear but bitterly cold. With the deep snow cover, many suburban locations once again dropped to 10 below zero. Sunday was gray and cold. Later in the afternoon, light snow developed across much of the area.

What once looked to bring at least a moderate snowfall of 3 to 6″ across much of the city, suddenly shifted south at the last second, sparing Boston of a significant snowfall. Still, 2 to 3″ of fluffy snow only added to the  enormous snowpack still in place across much of the region.

Just south of Boston, heavier amounts were found, with many communities checking in with between 4 and 6.” This part of the state has been getting hammered with storm after storm. Even the small storms are producing several inches at a time. The south shore of Boston has been right on the perfect thermal boundary line. Just south enough for the heavier moisture to reach them, and just north enough to keep it cold and fall as snow. And there’s more coming! Another storm looks to bring at least a moderate snowfall to the this area come Wednesday night and Thursday. I will talk more about that later in my forecast.

As I mentioned in my Facebook post yesterday, we survived a unprecedented, month of February. In fact, I would say, along with the majority of many others, that this was the most severe month of winter weather, ever recorded and lived through in much of eastern Massachusetts. This included much of the greater Boston area.

The combination of the snowiest month ever recorded, and the second coldest month on record, made this February go down in history! Records and snow events can come in all different  scenerios.

Sometimes, we get a record snowfall for the date, or a record low temperature for the date. In cases like this, you shrug, say that’s nice, and move on with your life. Never have I seen, such a persistant cold and stormy pattern like this! Normally, we get a big storm, and life returns back to normal within a few days or so. This year, we were bombarded by four successive major storms, all with excessive accumulations.

To make matters worse, extreme cold temperatures and low sun angle, did very little to melt any of the snowfalls away. The end result was towering snowbanks and massive ice dams on peoples roofs. City workers, along with help from the National Gaurd have been working nearly 24/7 trying to keep up with snow removal.

Boston has received 64.8″ of snow just in February, and now stands at 0ver 104″ for the season. This makes this the second snowiest winter on record, with only the winter of 1995-96 in our way.

I do believe, with a couple more snow events coming this week, we will surpass this record, and then some! I could go on and on talking about records, needless to say, we have broken nearly all of them over the course of the last month!  By the way, 107.6″ was recorded at Logan Airport in the 1995-96 winter season.

Moving on, we have flipped the calander, and are now into the month of March. Many friends have been asking me, Pete, when is it going to be over???? My friend’s wife the other night was insistant, asking me when is it going to be gone? All away, for good! I can understand, folks are beyong their breaking point. They want the snow to go away, and they want spring now! We are now going on our fifth week of some major life adjustments, largely due to the weather.

I know people want spring to come right away. I can tell you these facts. First, spring is not here yet. I know we have made it to meteorological spring, but that’s just for weather record keeping, to keep it organized, and give it 4 distinct quarters to the seasons.

Second, astronomical spring does not arrive until March 20th, so there is a good three weeks of winter to go. March is a transition month, going from winter to spring.

Third, Solar radiation is increasing on a daily basis. Temperatures will begin to fluctuate more rapidly, with some warm days, and cold days. It still can be very cold at night, especially when we still have a deep snow cover. March is capable of many things. With the winter parameters still in place, much of New England is still capable of receiving another major snowstorm from this pattern.

Some years, March is a true spring month here in New England. Remember three years ago, folks were going to the beach in March? Others, it can still be a fierce winter month, with heavy snow and cold. In fact, because of the increased temperature contrast, we can experience big storms, of rain and snow.

Up in northern New England, where temperatures are a little colder, March is typically their snowiest month. As for this March, I would expect to see a little bit of everything I just talked about. On average, I am expecting a stormy month, with above average precipitation & snowfall across most of the region. Keeping with the theme of the overall pattern, I am expecting this March to be colder than average, but nothing close to what February was like.

While I am expecting at least one more significant snowfall, I am also expecting the pattern to relax for a time. Look for temperatures to finally warm up with some significant melting to the snowpack sometime after the 12th of March, until around the 18th.

Thereafter, the cold and stormy pattern may resume for one last stand heading into the first week in April. Much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean will continue throughout March. This will continue to build a big ridge of high pressure out west.

This persistant pattern will continue the threat of cold intrusions and threats of snow throughout much of March here in New England. Of course, it’s all relative, temperatures may be colder than average, but not cold enough for snow as we head into April. But if this pattern persists into April, it still could snow a bit during the first 10 days of the month.  On average, the threat for snow rapidly decreases after we reach the Spring Equinox.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to thank one of my friends, who happens to live in Scituate, Ma. Which I believe, aside from Mt. Washington, is one the stormiest locations in New England! Anyway, he has been texting me some really good observations about the winter and asking about statisitics and outcomes. I really appreciate this, as it keeps me on my toes, and gives me alot more material to write about in my blog.

Some of the topics he’s been asking me centers around Boston snowfall, and how it compares to other U.S. cities. Also, how much liquid equivalent water is in this snowpack, and about how much flooding can we expect this spring when our record snows begin to melt away. If you have any questions, or concerns about the weather, send me a message, I’m happy to chat about the weather, and will do my best to answer any questions!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter forecast. I will rate this week a 3 on the severity scale. A slight improvement, but still the threat of wintery weather. Watch for a brisk wind for the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will warm up a bit with the strong March sun, but then begin to fall as we head towards evening. Highs will generally be in the mid 30’s, but drop into the upper 20’s by dark.

Expect clear and very cold temperatures again for tonight, with lows in the single digits and teens, under clear skies.

Tuesday will feature some early sun, fading by increasing and thickening clouds during the day. It will look like it wants to snow, and by evening, it will. There will be a brief burst of snow tomorrow evening, which will make roads slippery and accumulate between 1 and 3″ in Boston. If you live in southern N.H., you can expect between 2 and 4.”

Later at night, the snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain. Along the coast, and in Boston points south, this mixture will change over to rain fairly quickly just after midnight. However, if you live in the interior, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain may fall much of the night, resulting in a icy start to your Wednesday. Any leftover rain should begin to diminish towards noontime on Wednesday.

In the interior, any mixed precipitation may briefly end as some rain, as temperatures warm up into the 30’s inland, and 40’s along the coast. Because of limited moisture, I am expecting only some localized street flooding and ponding of slush and water. Later on Wednesday, temperatures will begin to begin to get colder once again.

The cold front that will move through the area during the day, is going to stall off our coast at night. Another low pressure system may develop to our southwest and stream moisture up towards New England. Looking at the latest data, it does appear that a fairly snowy day is in store for Thursday, especially from the Mass Pike southward, and especially along the coast.

However, it also does appear as if the deepest moisture will remain just south of New England for this event. Any slight shift to the north would bring a very significant snowstorm into the city of Boston.

Right now, let’s go for a few inches of snow to fall late Wednesday night and into Thursday. Along Boston’s south shore, there is the potential for closer to 6″ to fall from this storm. As arctic air passes over the relatively warm ocean, snow may be enhanced somewhat in these areas. We have heard that story before!

Nevertheless, with this expecting snowfall, I do believe that this will be enough snow to vault Boston to a brand new seasonal snowfall record! We shall see! Expect clearing skies and chilly weather for Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 30’s, and lows in the teens and twenties.

Looking at the latest computer models, another storm may threaten eastern Massachusetts on Sunday. The European model has a storm charging up the coast, but only delivers a glancing blow at this time. However, it would not take much for that one to track just a little closer for a more significant impact. After that threat passes, a more tranquil, milder pattern will attempt to spread into southern New England. Wow!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be scoping out the pattern, to see if any warmer weather is in our future. I will also give you a timetable on when I think the snowpack will be melting, and if we can expect any significant flooding this spring. In the meantime, records are meant to be broken. Imagine the winter when the next record is broken!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

PIPE CRACKING COLD! 2/23/15

Hello! After a relentless stretch of blizzards and bitter cold, Boston finally caught a break yesterday as temperatures moderated to near 40 degrees! This was preceeded by a storm on Saturday, which also brought us a break. Snow overspread the area on Saturday and continued into the night. Here in Boston, it was a wet snow, almost like rain, and had trouble accumulating.

You only had to travel 10 miles to the north and west of the city to run into 3 to 6″ of accumulations Saturday night. However, here in Boston, a weak south wind during the storm, warmed the temperature up just enough to prevent any significant accumulation. We still had a couple sloppy inches across the city, which quickly melted away on Sunday.

In the wake of the storm, a milder airmass drove folks outdoors for the first time in weeks! I saw plenty of people jogging, taking walks, and driving with windows down! Of course, it’s all relative. Other times of the year, 40 degrees would be chilly, sending people to grab their sweaters and jackets!

Not this winter! After a bitter cold stretch of weather, yesterday’s temperatures felt like a heat wave! After the day began with some light snow and icy conditions, skies began to clear by noontime. With the warmer late February sun, temperatures finally cracked freezing in Boston for the first time in 15 days!

The warmer temperatures yesterday was not just good for people’s mood, it also thawed out some of the massive ice dams, melted some icicles, and reduced snow banks down a bit.

Personally, I didn’t have a chance to enjoy the milder temperatures. Yes, I was out there, however like many folks, I was shoveling more snow as it softened up. I also spent several hours at my mother’s home raking snow off the roof, and removing ice dams. There was an incredible amount of snow and ice on her roof. In some places, the ice was at least a foot thick close to the gutter!

Other than hiring a professional company to steam melt the ice, you can’t do much about it. Yes, the thaw helped yesterday, but what it really needs is warmer temperatures of spring to melt it all away.

You can relieve the situation by removing snow and ice from the roof. Because of the dangerous conditions, I would recommend removing snow only where it is accessable. It’s not worth risking serious injury or death by venturing out on a roof.

Yesterday, while heading to Home Depot, I drove by the Roche Centre ice skating rink on the V.F.W. Parkway in West Roxbury. As I gazed over, I saw men shoveling snow off the roof of the rink. Folks, I could not believe my eyes. It looked like something straight out of Buffalo.

There must of been at least 4 ft of snow on the roof as the were working away. If rain, or warmer temperatures arrive, this was definitely a good idea for them and many other people to consider doing.

As mentioned erarlier, I saw several people out jogging yesterday. They are probably training to run in the Boston Marathon coming up in April. With the massive snow banks around, I can  only imagine how dangerous it must be for them to be running out there.

With school also back from February vacation, there will also be many children roaming around in between snow banks. Last week was difficult enough navigating through the city.

If you need to drive, please keep a watchful eye on children and folks jogging out there! Until the snow banks diminish further, please be patient with other drivers pulling out from intersections, they can’t see you coming!

It has been a difficult and challenging stretch for many. February has been one for the record books. Not only has this been the snowiest month in Boston on record, but it also is the second coldest February on record. The coldest February on record was back in 1934.

With bitter cold air still coming this week, it’s not out of the question that this February eclipses that too, making this the coldest February on record! Even if it ends up in second place, it’s only going to be by a few tenths of a degree.

With the combination of cold and record snow, WeatherBell Analytics expert long range meteorologist Joe Bastardi has gone on record saying that this is the worst month of winter weather on record here in Boston! With nearly 63″ of snow falling just in February, and temperatures nearly 12 degrees below normal, who could argue?

Some of my friends are at their breaking point, and want to know when this is going to end! As true to the month, this bitter cold weather is going to be in force until the end of the month. Fortunately, for many, the end of the month is Saturday. So does it end then? The short answer to this question is, no. However, I do want to bring you some good news before I bring the bad.

Yesterday, while doing some snow shoveling, I could definitely feel the increasing warmth of the late February sun. With the earth now beginning to tilt closer to the sun each and every day, you can expect an even stronger presence of the sun as we move forward to spring. In addition, daylight savings time arrives on March 8th. These two factors  will help begin to melt the giant snowpack currently in place across the area.

Some folks have been asking me if the snow is still going to be here when the Red Sox start playing at Fenway in April. I told them it’s possible, but not probable. Despite the gigantic snow pack, once the spring equinox arrives, the strong solar radiation will begin to rapidly melt the snow. This, along with an increase threat of spring rains will also help wash away the snow in time.

Now, how could it persist? There have been years when March is a cloudy, cold and stormy month. If we do not receive alot of sun in March, and we continue to receive storms with snow and mixed precipitation, some of the snow pack may linger, even into early April!

And what about that bad news? Despite the optimism for springlike weather, this current winter pattern is persistant, and is going to linger well into March this year. Yes, there will be some milder days. However, with the increased temperature gradient developing, a active sub-tropical jet stream, and plenty of cold air still up in Canada, I am expecting a stormy March ahead.

This will include the chance of another major snowstorm for Boston, and many more storms for northern New England and ski country. Boston is currently sitting at 99.9″ of snow for the season. The all time snowiest winter on record was back in 1995-96, when 107.6″ fell.

Looking over the long range computer guidance, I do believe we surpass this record sometime during the month of March. Some long range computer models are still forecasting up to two more feet of snow in Boston before we are through.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I am rating this week a 3 on the severity scale…bitter cold, but not much new snow. Watch for increasing sun, but decreasing temperatures this afternoon. With a gusty wind, temperatures may fall into the single digits by nightfall.

Tonight may be the coldest night of the winter in many places. I am expecting temperatures to generally fall to between 5 to 15 below zero across much of the area. Logan Airport may even fall to about 2 or 3 below zero. It all depends on wind direction and radiational cooling.

Some nights earlier this winter were forecasted to be very cold in Boston, only to not fall as cold as the computer models showed. Nevertheless, with cold like this, and a deep snow pack, expect problems to start out the day for Tuesday. If not well insulated, expect pipes to freeze, cars not to start, and heating systems to fail. Boston’s transit system, plagued by severe winter conditions this year, may also have delays and cancellations come tomorrow morning. Expect many delays, come tomorrow morning.

Later tomorrow, the late February sun will do its best to warm the region up back up into the teens. Later in the day, high clouds will begin to increase from the southwest.

Tomorrow night will be mostly cloudy and cold. Later at night, a period of snow will develop across eastern Massachusetts. I am not expecting a big storm, but with the bitter cold temperatures, roads could become slippery.

Right now, the ocean storm is expected to mainly miss us. However, an extension of the storm may throw enough moisture to result in 1 to 3″ of snow, especially close to the coast and down towards the Cape. I will monitor this carefully.

Expect any snow to end early Wednesday, with clearing skies during the afternoon. Temperatures will not be as harsh, with highs making up into the mid 30’s.

Another arctic blast arrives for Thursday, along with the chance of some flurries. This arctic air will not be as cold as todays. With that being said, this cold will likely linger for Friday and Saturday as well, with highs in the 20’s and lows in the single digits and teens.

Right now, Sunday looks to be a bit milder, with highs back up into the 30’s. A storm will need to monitored starting Sunday night.

This storm may be part of a complex event affecting New England, which may start as snow, change to rain, then change back to a heavy wet snowstorm to start next week. Will monitor this very closely again, and have updates for you if conditions warrant.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a preview for what kind of weather we can expect for March. I will also review the historic month of February. I will also be on the look out for any early spring weather, for my friends who are tires of this winter. In the meantime, the countdown is on, meterological spring begins on Sunday! Just in time for a chance of more snow!

Thanks for reading!

Pete