SNOW…but not too much! 2/16/15

Hello! It turned out to be a very wintery Valentine’s weekend in the Boston area! Snow began during Saturday afternoon, and rapidly accumulated 5″ during the course of the evening. After that wave moved through, some were thinking that we may have dodged a bullet with the real storm.

However, as forecasted, the second storm rapidly intensified as it moved south of New England. This brought strong winds, plunging temperatures, and blinding snow which accumulated close to another foot in just a short few hours! This brought the storm total to between 12 and 22″ across much of eastern Massachusetss.

So now it’s official! We are living through weather history this month! After this weekends storm, snow records toppled at many observation stations. Boston, being nearly ground zero for all these events, has received nearly 90″ of snow in less than 3 weeks!

The barrage of snow has also pushed Boston into third place for snowiest season on record, with 95.6″ fallen so far. After tomorrow’s event, we most likely move into second place, eclipsing the 1993-94 winter of 96.3.”

Thereafter, it remains to be seen whether we can overtake 1995-96 winter season for the snowiest winter on record. In that year, Boston accumulated 107.6.” Boston has also smashed the record for all time snowiest month. Previous record was 43 .7″ back in January of 2005. This February, we already have over 58″ and counting!

Many other observations in eastern Massachusetts are either approaching record levels, or have the most snow on the ground in any given winter. The Great Blue Hill Observatory, in Milton, Ma. recorded 46″ of snow on the ground…a new all time record!

I can tell you from personal standpoint, this is the most snow I have ever seen on the ground where I live in West Roxbury, Ma. This includes memories going back to the famed blizzard of 1978! Of course, in that great storm, nearly all of it fell in one storm!

This has taken 4 major storms to accomplish this feat! Still, after repetitive blizzards, the snow on the ground is unprecedented across much of eastern Massachusetts. This incudes parts of Cape Cod as well!

It’s gotten to the point of a crisis situation in many Boston’s neighborhoods. There literally is no place to put the snow! I can also tell you from personal experience, driving in the side streets is a test of ones patience! There is only one lane available, with walls of snow on either side.

If you confront another driver coming down the opposite side, something has to give! Someone has to back up to another street opening to allow one of you to pass by. Then, as you pull out to continue to drive, another car comes down, and you start the whole process over! My picture which I have attached to this post tells the whole story!

Everywhere I go, people are asking me when is it going to END??? I have said it before, and it’s worth saying again. I have never seen a weather pattern like this my whole life studying this stuff! To have a series of winter weather events is one thing. We get into patterns from time to time. But to have four major snowstorms, two of them blizzards, within a three week span, is almost inconceivable!

Typically, we have a major storm, then get a relaxation of the pattern following. No, in this pattern, we are receiving major storm after major storm, then bitterly cold temperatures to follow. This has not melted any of the previous storms, and the snowpack continues to grow! Because of the fierce winds, and heavy accumulations, snow has been drifting and piling up on people’s roofs.

Accumulations such as this, is allowing ice dams to form, turning a already difficult situation into more of a hardship. Again, from personal experience, each of my family members are battling ice dams in their homes.

An ice dam is when a heavy accumulation of snow collects along the edge of the roof line, along the gutters. Heat from the home then begins to melt the snow and begins to form huge icicles, and a block of ice begins to form in the gutter. At this point, the freeze, thaw process begins to form streams of water.

These streams of water can be compared to an outflow from a glacier. Water will then work up under the shingles of the roof, then begin its long journey through the walls & windows through the interior of the house.

These streams of water can also form along the outside wall of the house, creating giant glacial like formations. This ice and water can cause major leaks and water damage to your home.

To combat against ice dams, a roof should have a ice and water shield installed under the shingles, at least 10 feet up from the edge. You can also remove some of the snow of the roof with a roof rake. This will help keep the gutters free of ice build up. Some people have been placing rock salt in womans nylons, and placing them in the gutters, which seemed like a good idea to me. Other suggestions were roof melters, which I hear work ok, but have been sold out in many hardware shops around the region.

Keep in mind, with these heavy accumulations we have been receiving, there really is no magic bullet. Keeping on top of the situation, cleaning off the roof, would be your only real way to prevent them. Many don’t have that capability to do that. If you have one, good luck!

Sorry, I digressed! Back to when this pattern is going to end. This is obviously a persistant pattern, with severe winter weather. Looking at the long range guidance, I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that we are now officially on our way to spring. After the midpoint of February, the sun begins to increase solar radiation, making afternoons more tolerable. I could feel that today, with the deep blue skies and bright sunshine. I do believe, that after this week, the worst of the severe winter weather will be behind us.

Now for the bad news. It looks like we are stuck in this pattern until at least the end of February. With winter in full maturaty right now, we are at risk for more snow. Even if we moderate for a day or two, this nasty pattern is lurking close by, ready to come back with a vengeance!

How much more is subject ot debate. Some long range models continue a fire hose of above normal precipitation right along the east coast, up into much of New England. With enough cold air around, this leads me to believe that we are still under the gun for at least one, if not several more major snowstorms for us this year.

The one piece of the puzzle that has been lacking this winter has been the Greenland Block. Even without the block, other teleconnections have kicked in to deliver the record snows here in Boston this winter. If the Greenland Block begins to show up later in February, it could very well keep the misery of the winter chill and snowfalls well into March this year.

My prediction is for a slow breakdown of the locked in pattern. This means we will begin to see breaks in the weather as we head later in February and into March. However, with a more active sub tropical jet stream,  lots of cold air left in Canada, and a ever increasing baroclinic zone, I do believe we receive quite a bit more snow this winter, perhaps even another big one. This should be more than enough snow to surpass 1995-96 winter as the snowiest winter on record!

Now onto you weekly outdoor winter forecast. I will rate this week a 1 on the severity scale, this means another rough week of winter weather. Expect deep, cobalt blue skies along with a warming February sun for the rest of this afternoon. There still is a gusty wind, and it will be cold, with highs only in the teens.

Watch for clouds to rapidly increase across the region tonight, it will be cold, but not as cols as last night, with lows in the single digits and teens.

Snow will rapidly overspread the region first thing tomorrow morning. Once the snow moves in, it should continue to snow throughout much of the day. Unlike past storms, there will not be any record accumulations with this one.

However, if you live south of Massachusetts Turnpike, you should expect a light to perhaps even a moderate sized snow event to occur. This means 2 to 4″ around Boston, 3 to 6″ south of Boston, and perhaps as much as 5 to 8″ down the Cape. Even with the light snowfall expected, any more snow on top of what is already on the ground will add to the hardship of getting around.

Now for the tricky part. As this storm moves east of the region tomorrow night, a lingering trof of low pressure may extend back from the storm and act as a focul point for light snow to continue from the Boston area northeast along the coast of N.H. and Maine. This is only a chance, but I did want to add it to my forecast in case it verifies. Some of the models are showing this feature.

This disturbance may persist into Wednesday, especially north of the city, along the N.H. and Maine seacoast. Sometimes, these trofs of low pressure, or air convergience, can result in surprising locally heavy snowfalls. I will keep you updated if conditions warrant.

Otherwise, expect dry weather from the period from Wednesday through Saturday. We will remain in the ice box, with highs struggling to get out of the teens and low 20’s, nightime lows near zero, or even below.

Right now, long range models are struggling a bit as we head later in the weekend. Before the next arctic blast arrives, some models want to be a storm racing up the coast along about Sunday or Monday. If this is the case, watch out for possibly another nor’easter type of storm. It may warm up enough to warrant mixing issues if the storm materializes. I will keep you updated with this potential.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor the possibility of any additional storms for New England. I will also let you know if I see any break in this historic weather pattern. In the meantime, please continue to monitor furnace and dryer vents out there. Also, think of this as I let you go. Meteorological winter ends in 12 days, real spring is not far behind that. You can’t stop the change of seasons. Eventually, it will all melt…by early May.

Thanks for reading!

Pete

VALENTINE’S DAY BLIZZARD! 2/13/15

Hello! Well, here we go again! Just an unprecedented, historic stretch of winter weather history we are witnessing!  Boston is now under the gun for our 4th major snowstorm, second blizzard, in less than a month! I could go on about records, and historic statistics, but we have a much more serious storm that we need to address!

Let’s get right into the details! The National Weather Service has now issued a Blizzard Warning for the Boston, basically up and down the I95 corridor from Providence to Down East Maine. This warning goes into effect starting tomorrow evening at 7:00 PM, and expires at 1:00 PM on Sunday. This time frame may need to be exended later, we will see just how the storm behaves during Sunday.  

This is going to be a dangerous storm! I know we hear this often, but it seldom is all true. This storm is highly anomalous, meaning it’s highly unusual. The reason for that is because where this storm originates from. This storm is originating from near the North Pole!

This piece of atmospheric spin, or vorticity max, is digging through the Great Lakes as we speak. It will continue diving down towards New Jersey. Currently, the surface reflection is not very impressive, with only a package of light snow showers. However, this storm is very energetic in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

As this spin reaches the Atlantic Ocean, the trough will amplify, and the energy will transfer its energy to a new low pressure area south of New England. When this occurs, the storm will undergo rapid intensification, also known in the weather community as “Bombogenisis.”

From here, the storm will slowly move north, first into Massachusetts Bay, then into the Gulf of Maine then stall during the day on Sunday. The reason it’s so dangerous is threefold.

First, because it originates from the North Pole, it will be bringing with it a package of  dangerously cold air with it.

Second, because of the rapid intensification of the storm, it will be producing near hurricane force wind gusts out of the north.

Third, it will also be producing wind whipped heavy snowfall. Combine all three, and  severe blizzard conditions will be unfolding here, especially if you live within 10 miles of the coastal plain.

Remember, a blizzard is not all about the snow! A blizzard by definition is winds that are sustained at 35 mph or greater for 3 consecutive hours. And, visibilities that are at 1/4 mile or less for three consecutive hours. The strict definition for temperatures to be below 20 degrees has been relaxed somewhat over the years. However, I do believe we will meet this criteria, even the temperature aspect, here in coastal New England!

With all of this being said, there are still many details which remain unknown. Computer models have been struggling all day as to where to place the maximum amount of precipitation in eastern Massachusetts. Because the storm will be undergoing rapid intensification close to our latitude, it puts Boston in the left quadrant of the storm. Typically, this does not produce the highest snowfall totals in these storms.

However, the American GFS model has been pretty insistant on developing a second bullseye max right along eastern Massachusetts coast, including Boston.

This is because the storm slows down and nearly stalls for about 12 hours, allowing the precipitation field to expand, and move from east to west, then southwest into Boston.

This is the difficult part of the forecast. If this lobe does not develop, Boston’s accumulations will be much less than what is forecasted. Computer models have generally been printing out about 1″ of precipitation in Boston.

Typical snow ratios are 10 to 1. Meaning 1″ of liquid equates to 10″ of snow. However, because of the frigid cold air, snow will be less dense, and hold less moisture. This allows the fluff factor to kick in, possibly producing ratios of 20 to 1.

Further north, especially form Portland, Maine, northward, very heavy snows are almost a certainty, possibly on the order of 2 ft of snow!  This is where the best dynamics will be taking place with the storm. That, and the issue of the storm slowing down and stalling in the Gulf of Maine is absolutely going to crush the region with hurricane force winds and severe blizzard conditions.

We are now locked into a high amplitude blocking pattern for the foreseeable future. This means there is a huge blocking ridge of high ptressure in western North America, extending well up into Alaska and western Canada.

Think of it like a garden hose, if you shake the hose, big loops will develop in the pattern as you shake it, with high points and low points. As the ridge builds out west, a deep trough of low pressure forms downstream, where we are.

Over the past few weeks, disturbances have been diving down from Canada into the mean trough position, forming low pressure centers, then intensifying while they move south of New England. Boston has been ground zero for these epic storms, with one after the other relentlessly pounding the city with record snowfalls. 

I see no end with this incredible siege of winter weather. In fact, another snowstorm will be threatening the region come Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

We are now going into uncharted territory. I have mentioned this before in previous posts, but we if these storms keep up, a full scale crisis will need to be declared in the city. We will need the National Gaurd come in to help city officials remove some of these towering snowbanks. Again, I will adress this issue in my next post.

Let’s get right to the forecast. Watch for tonight to feature dry weather, under bitterly cold temperatures. Lows will drop to 10 below zero to 10 above across the region.

Look for any early sun tomorrow to be quickly followed by increasing thickening clouds. Anytime after noontime, light snow will begin to break out across the area. It will be very cold out, with highs only in the teens.  If you need to do any errands tomorrow, please be off the roads and at home by no later than 3:00 PM.

As we move deeper into the afternoon, snow will increase in intensity. You will also begin to notice the wind picking up out of the east. 

Look for a very stormy Valentine’s Day night.  

Blizzard Warning begins at 7:00 PM tomorrow night. Expect blizzard conditions to overspread the coastal locations from south to north. Snow will fall heavy at times and winds will begin to pick up out of the northeast.

The peak of the storm will be from midnight Saturday night, to midday Sunday. Look for snow, heavy at times. With all the snow on the ground, and new snow falling, there will be significant blowing and drifting, and whiteout conditions. If you live along the coast, you may experience severe blizzard conditions, with life threatening conditions!

With such fierce winds, I am expecting snow drifts in the order of 2 t0  4 ft in Boston, but upwards to 3 to 6 ft along the coast and down the Cape!During this period, watch for winds to be sustained out of the north at about 30 mph in the city, and 45 mph along the shore. However, gusts during this time period will range anywhere from 60 to 70 mph.

If you live down the Cape or along east coast beaches, forget about it! It will rival any strong tropical storm, with sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph, and gusts to 70 or even category 1 hurricane strength of 80 mph! It goes without saying, winds that are this strong, have the capability of knocking power out for some.

Please be prepared if your power goes out. It is going to be bitterly cold, with outrageously low windchills! Further up the coast into Maine, especially Downeast,  the storm is going to be worse! Expect severe blizzard conditions along the coast, with storm force winds, and drifts up to 7 ft high!

Watch for the heavy snow to continue up until around noontime here in Boston. Thereafter lighter snow may linger until around 2 or 3 PM. light snow may linger along the north shore and south shore of Boston most of the day.

The snow may abate, but the brutal conditions will linger, with ferocious northwest gales during the afternoon, sending windchills to 20 to 30 below zero! 

After the storm clears, Sunday night may be the coldest night we have seen in Boston since January, 2004. I am expecting low temperatures in Boston to be about 5 below zero come Monday morning, with ridiculously low windchills. At that point, Boston will have officially been relocated to the North Pole.

So how much snow are we expecting? if you live in the city of Boston, points north, I am expecting between 8 and 12″ of snow. Along the north shore, amounts may be somewhat higher, with between 10 and 15.” If you live outside of Rt 128 to 495, between 6 and 10.”

Further north, into coastal N.H. up to Portland , Maine, you can expect between 12 and 18.”

Once you move beyond Portland, especially Downeast, you can expect accumulations of around 18 to 24″  of snow, with severe blizzard conditions.

If you live south of Boston, you too may receive 6 to 10″. If you live closer to the shore, it may be closer to 12.”  The closer you move towards the ocean with this storm, the greater impact you will receive.

In Boston, this storm may be remembered more for its strong winds and bitterly cold temperatures more than the snow. There is a big bust factor here, as computer models have been waffling on the amount of moisture all day here in Boston.

I don’t believe this storm has the right set up for Boston to eclipse 12″ of snow, but it will be very significant nonetheless! Who knows, though???  Anything is possible in this winter!!

Well that’s about it for now! If you have any questions concerning the storm, please feel free to message me on Facebook or Twitter, I would be happy to answer any questions! Expect frequent updates from me throughout the storm! 

There are several more computer model runs still need to be processed before the storm arrives, so there may be some changes. In the meantime, please tune in for updates from officials and meteorologists regarding this potentially dangerous storm! Have a safe and Happy Valentine’s Day!

Please be safe!

Pete

SEVERE WINTER WEATHER! 2/9/15

Hi everyone! Sorry to alarm everyone with the title today. However, I believe it’s important to make sure we all understand what we have been going through, and what is about to happen. You can say, Pete, I understand exactly what we’re going through. Now, come help me shovel the nearly 4 ft of snow I have in my yard!

This is important. Of course we can’t help everyone. However, I believe it is important to try and do your best, no matter how small the task, at pitching in and doing your part. It could be anything, like digging out a fire hydrant, visiting a elderly neighbor, or heping someone shovel out.  If you can’t do any of these, just offer some patience and support to folks who are working hard out there in trying to keep this city moving!

I don’t have any precise numbers just yet, but it’s safe to say this has been a historic stretch of winter weather here in the Boston area. Today marks the third major winter storm to slam the area in 2 weeks!  The first was a all time top 5 blizzard to bury Boston with over 2 feet of snow. The second was just one week ago today, when another 16 to 18″ of snow. Now this one, a long duration storm which began on Saturday, and will not end completely until early tomorrow morning. This storm is coming with bitterly cold temperatures, allowing the light, fluffy snow to accumulate to well over 20″ again in many communities!

To make matters worse, persistant cold temperatures have prevented little if any of this snow to melt. The end result? Record amounts of snow in a 10 day period, which has amounted to well over 60″ of snow!

In addition, Boston will be breaking its all time snow depth on the ground at any given time during any winter. After this storm today, I believe Boston may have over 40″ of snow on the ground, with some other towns over 50.”

With accumulations like this, snow banks will be at an all time high across the city. I said it before, but I believe the city of Boston will have to declare a state of emergency, or emergency crisis. In my opinion, this is quickly turning into a disaster area. Just like any major weather event such as a hurricane, tornado, flooding, that hit other parts of the country, who receive assistance. Where doing it Boston style…with unprecedented amounts of snow!

We need some type of assistance such as National Gaurd to help us remove some of the snow from the city! The city has never experienced so much accumulation of snow in such a short period of time! I don’t know if it’s a pride thing (probably)!

From a personal note, I can tell you from first hand experience that my business is being severely compromised. My delivery men can not deliver the large and heavy items that we sell safely into people’s homes. To make matters worse, they can’t park anywhere remotely close to even attempt the delivery.

Snow banks stand over 6 ft high in front of my store that we can’t even bring new merchandise in or out. Not complaining here, just wanted to give everyone a perspective at the hardship that’s going on out there, not only with my business, but with others across the city.

So what’s next? People are asking me left and right to make it stop! Unfortunately, I don’t have those powers. Nor do I have any connection with Mother Nature to ask her to answer this requests from many. At this point, I can only say to pray to help stop the madness!

As I mentioned in my previous post on Saturday, this is a unprecedented weather pattern, the likes that has not been seen either from myself, nor seasoned professional meteorologists in the field.

Looking over the latest long range guidance, I can tell you this. The weather patterns may actually get worse before it gets better! It now appears as if we will be under the gun for more storms over the next two weeks or so. To make matters worse, we may add some record cold arctic air into the mix. Thereafter, there are some signs on some computer models that there will be a relaxation to the extreme pattern come the last week of February.

Things can change. As I mentioned to a friend of mine the other day, Mother Nature can abruptly shut off the snow guns as quickly as she turned them on. Eventually, the relentless pattern will shut off. Certainly not for the next week, anyhow.

The same friend also asked me a very observant question. She asked what were the top three winters for total snowfall in Boston history, and do we have a shot at cracking into the this category.

The number one top season snowfall in Boston was in 1995-96, when 106.7″ fell in Boston. Number two was in 1993-94, when 96.3″ fell. And way back in the 1947-48 season, a toatal of 89.2″ fell in Boston. After today’s storm, we will likely be in the top 10 for snowiest seasons.

If this pattern were to persist into March, and there are signs that it just may do that, at least for the first part of it, then yes, a top three winter is not far fetched. A all time record snowiest winter is not off the table as well, seeing at how the patterns are setting up.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor winter forecast. The severity scale this week for winter weather is 0. That’s right, I wrote a zero. Significant winter weather is likely to continue straight on through the weekend. We are under a winter storm warning for the rest of today and until 1:00 AM tomorrow morning. Expect the storm to continue for the rest of today, with snow, falling heavy at times. Along with the frigid temperatures, watch for a gusty north wind to cause significant blowing and drifting of the snow.

Expect a general storm total of between 15 and 25″ across the Boston area. However, I have seen reports of some accumulations south of Boston already approaching 30.” So there will be pockets of higher amounts.

I am expecting approximately 20″ of snow to fall in the city Boston by the time it finishes later tonight. Later tonight, the snow will gradually diminish from east to west and completely end by daybreak. It will be bitterly cold with lows in the single digits and low teens.

Tuesday should feature increasing sunshine. It will be cold, with highs mainly in the 20’s. With the sun increasing in strength, it won’t feel too bad during the afternoon. It will be clear and very cold tomorrow night, with some locations dropping below zero, and single digits.

Wednesday should start sunny and cold, but there may be some increasing clouds late in the day. If a brisk northeast wind develops late in the day, there may be some low clouds and snow showers developing along the coast. This is not a certainty, but something to monitor.

Now for more weather drama. For the period of Thursday and into Friday, yet another dynamic piece of vorticity (upper air energy), will be diving southeastward from the Great Lakes. If you think you have heard this before, you are correct. This is where many of our snowmakers have been originating so far this year.

Watch for this piece of energy to be diving towards the mid-atlantic coast. Some computer models are taking this energy, and rapidly intensifying it into a powerful nor’easter off our coast. Regardless of whether this storm hits or not, it will be dragging a piece of bitterly cold arctic air down into New England on its back side. If the bitter air, and the storm mix together, I can envision a rapidly developing blizzard hitting Boston later Thursday and at night. This would mean heavy windblown snow, limited visibilities, and bitter cold temperatures.

If the storm hits full bore, another foot of powder could be the outcome. This is not my forecast right now. I need to review further guidance to make a forecast on this possibility.

There are other computer models keeping the brunt of this storm just offshore, with only a glancing blow the end result. It’s about a 50/50 chance at this point. I will surely be updating you if I feel conditions warrant with this potential event.

As mentioned above, if the storm misses, the cold certainly will not. Look for bitter cold temperatures on Friday night. When you wake up Saturday morning, expect widespread sub zero air temperatures. For the rest of your Saturday, expect bitterly cold weather with highs only in the single digits and teens.

Watch for yet another chance for snow on Sunday. The set up is similar to the Thursday potential, with a storm which may expand its snow shield into Boston, or may be weak and just brush us. Latest European model is now forecasting another very serious storm to hit Boston.

After that, there may be one more threat at a significant storm along about the middle of next week. Then after that moves by, the pattern may finally relax so we can all collect our breathe!

Well that’s about it for now! As I mentioned earlier, I will be updating this blog, also via Facebook and Twitter on the potential for any more storms later in the week. Feel free to message me with any questions or concerns. I will also have my regular post a week from today.

In next week’s blog, I will be looking over data to see when and if we can expect a break from this ferocious winter pattern. In the meantime, as with many hardships in life, this too shall pass. Hang in there, just keep thinking of the beautiful summer that awaits!

Public safety notice: Please, make sure to keep furnace exhaust and dryer vents free of snow, during this unprecedented period of heavy snowfalls.

Thanks for reading! Be safe!

Pete

WINTER STORM WARNING! 2/7/15

Hi everyone! Just wanted to get everybody caught up to speed on yet another impending winter storm  heading our way for the Boston area. This will be a widespread heavy snowfall covering much of the northeastern part of the country.

Expect the heaviest snows with this one to fall anywhere from Boston, to Worcester, straight out the New York State. For those who live in northern New England who felt left out of the action the past couple storms, you too will receive heavy snows with this storm. I am talking about folks who live on a line from Rutland, Vt., to Concord, N.H. over to Portland, Maine.

Folks who live south of the Mass. Pike will also be receiving a heavy snowfall. However, here, especially as you head towards the south coast, some mixing may hold accumulations down on what could easily be a very significant snow.

Unlike the past couple relatively quick hitting, high impact storms, this will be a long duration storm, lasting for nearly 48 hours in many places. Once the snow overspreads the area later this evening, it will not stop until early Tuesday morning.

Because of the steady, moderate, to perhaps even heavy snow at times falling over such a long period of time, some areas are going to accumulate quite a bit of snowfall…again!

Before I get to the forecast, and accumulations I am expecting, here is a brief weather explanation as to what is going on.

A very strong area of high pressure, with bitter cold temperatures, is currently building into northern New England from Quebec. At the same time, a warm and somewhat humid air mass is trying to make its way north from the mid atlantic region. This sets the stage for a battle of the air masses!

Because cold air is heavy and dense, it will begin to slowly ooze into New England, from north to south. At the same time, warm air is lighter, and will overrun the cold air over the top. This will be the focus of precipitation for the first part of the storm.

As warm air overruns the cold air precipitation will begin to fall as snow across much of Massachusetts. This will begin later this evening and continue into tomorrow.  As this first wave of low pressure moves off to our east tomorrow, the snow may let up in intensity for a time during the afternoon.

As this happens, watch for winds to turn north, and cold arctic air will begin to drain down into eastern New England. If it isn’t snowing tomorrow afternoon, the slate gray skies and bone chilling wind will let you know that we’re not getting off the hook so easily. 

As the second wave of low pressure moves off to our east, a third, more important low will be developing down the coast along the stalled arctic boundary. As this storm begins to push north, snow will rapidly spread over much of central and southern New England. This is a very complicated storm, so bear with me!!

As the third storm begins to intensify to our south, it will slowly beging to move north and begin to interact with the arctic high pressure area anchored over Quebec. This will be the focul point of three things. 

First, the pressure gradient will enhance a moist easterly fetch of deep moisture, originating off of the Gulf of Maine.

Second, winds will begin to increase out of the east and northeast on Monday, creating low visibilities, and significant blowing and drifting of snow.

Third, because of the wind will be blowing in from the east, a fairly significant coastal front may try to set up somewhere along eastern Massachusetts coast.

This front is a focul point of converging air masses. On the east side of the front, winds will be whistling in from the east, bringing relatively milder marine air in from the ocean.

On the west side of the front, a northerly drain of bitter cold arctic air will keep it bitterly cold, and light, dry, fluffy snow. Where this coastal front sets up across eastern Massachusetts, will be the focul point of possibly some prolific snowfall rates and accumulations.

It is impossible to predict where this front sets up. Sometimes, it cuts right through the city of  Boston. Other times it aligns itself up from the north shore of Boston, right along I95.

This is the wildcard for snow accumulations with this storm. Because this will be such a long duration, slow moving event, some communities are going to get buried!!

Fortunately, I am not expecting any major coastal flooding with this storm. However, it is something I will have to monitor closely. Anytime you have a low pressure moving up the coast, interacting with a high pressure to the north, it could be trouble.

We just passed a full moon on Wednesday, so highest tides will be receding. With that being said, there still is the possibility of some splash over and minor, to perhaps some isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide, during the day on Monday. I will be monitoring this possibilty carefully during the day tomorrow.

Now for your storm forecast. Get ready, everyone! A relatively calm snowfall during the day tomorrow, will likely develop into a heavy nor’easter storm beginning tomorrow night, right through Tuesday morning!

Expect steady snow to blossom across the region this evening, and continue much of the night and well into the day tomorrow. During the afternoon, the snow may diminish somewhat, and may even turn into a bit of snizzle (very fine snow grains, mixed with freezing drizzle).

As this first wave moves east of us, watch for cold air to begin to drain down from the coast of Maine during the afternoon. You can expect between 4 and 6″ of snow to fall from this part of the storm.

If by chance, the second storm and the third storm link together, and the snow doeas not diminish as I am expecting it to during the afternoon, well then, we will really be in for it!

If the snow does taper, expect it to begin in full earnest tomorrow evening. Look for snow to overspread much of the region tomorrow night, and also begin to fall moderate to heavy at times. In addition, northeast winds will begin to pick up, blowing and drifting the snow around.

Expect many delays and cancellations on Monday. Watch for full nor’easter conditions to be the rule all day Monday, and possibly continuing into much of Monday night as well. This means it will be snowing, heavily at times much of this time. It will also turn windy, with shifting winds from the east to northeast, to north.

With all of the existing snow already on the ground, very dangerous, if not impossible driving conditions will be the case. With the gusty winds, expect significant blowing and drifting snow to increase during the day.

In addition, communities who are just to the west of that coastal front I talked about earlier, can expect near white out conditions, with persistant bands of very heavy snowfall.

If temperatures warm slightly along the coast during the day, expect them to plummet late in the day, resulting in dangerous driving conditions. This is even if you can drive, I would highly recommend not going anywhere on Monday!

The storm may actually continue well into Monday night. Expect snow, heavy at times, along with considerable blowing and drifting snow. Late at night, the heavy snow may start to begin to slowly abate, However, areas along Boston’s north shore, and perhaps even the city of Boston, heavy snow showers may persist well into Tuesday morning! This could be where some prolific snowfall amounts may add up, as the storm is slow to exit. Later on Tuesday, any lingering light snow will completely end along the coast. If we’re lucky, we may even see a nice sunset!

So how much snow can we expect from this blitz? As you can imagine, this is going to be very difficult to forecast due to so many external circumstances. However, I will give you my best educated estimate that I can possibly give at this time. Thereafter, I will be in full storm mode, and update everyone as we move along.

Right now, believe it or not, the city of Boston actually appears to be in a jackpot area that I am keeping a very close eye on. However, when analyzing the data very carefully, it appears the greatest snows with that coastal front, will align just to the north and northeast of the city.

This is where I am expecting between 18 and 24″ of snow to fall. There may actually be isolated communities who get hammered with even more snow than that. These heavy accumulations will extend up into the seacoast of New Hampshire.

The way I see it right now, I am calling for between 14 and 19″ of snow to fall in the city of Boston. However, if the winds blow just right, and heavy bands of snow stall near the city, these amounts could swell to well over 20,” again!!!

For the rest of Massachusetts, there will be another area of very heavy accumulations along the east slopes of the Berkshires, where orographic lift will help wring out more moisture. These areas can expect over two feet of snow.

If you live south of Boston, I am expecting between 10 and 18″ of snow. Depending if any mixing gets involved. As you head towards the Cape, and along the south coast of Mass. at this point I am calling for between 6 and 12″ of heavier, wetter snow. In these areas, some sleet and rain may mix with the snow for a part of the storm.

Again, this is a very challenging and difficult forecast, these areas may need to be shifted around as we get into the storm. I will be updating posts on Facebook and Twitter as conditions warrant.

As one of my favorite long range climate scientists, meteorologists of all time, Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell Analytics put it, “For most people living in New England, when this is done, you will never have gone through a winter like this in your lifetime, and probably never will again.”

Folks, I will elaborate more about this in my regular blog posting come tomorrow, or Monday. I just have to say I have been studying and following New England weather my whole life, and I have never seen such an unprecedented weather pattern in my whole life. Neither has many of the seasoned professional meteorologists in Boston.

I have mentioned it to several friends of mine already. There are many jokes and cliches about more snow coming, and it will never end. However, I can tell you, it’s no joke, this actually may get worse before it gets any better. More storms are lining up, along with ferociously bitter cold temperatures.

We could be talking historic all time snow records being smashed in many areas, including Boston. The city may need to call the National Gaurd in to help remove snow, otherwise there will be a crisis, with homes and businesses being buried under all the snow.

I can tell you first hand, my business is being severely compromised, as my delivery men struggle to navigate through the giant snow banks. I will talk about this more in my post. I apologize for the length, but I hope you found it informative. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me via facebook or Twitter.

Please, be safe!

Pete

OLD FASHIONED NEW ENGLAND WINTER! 2/2/15

Good morning! It has been a whirlwind of excitement! Blizzard 2015 last Tuesday, Patriots winning the Super Bowl in epic fashion last evening. And now, another powerful nor’easter is socking the Boston area today with likely over a foot of windblown snow! It’s hard to imagine a scenerio such as this ever repeating in life again for me!

Overall, it was another very wintery weekend across much New England. After the blizzard of 2015 last Tuesday, another complex storm approached New England on Friday. This was yet another Alberta Clipper type of storm charging towards the coast. Computer models were having a very difficult time forecasting the outcome for this storm. Some had it redeveloping south of New England, and rapidly intensifying, throwing more snow into Boston.

As it turned out, it did snow on Friday, but really did not accumulate much during the day. However, the storm got its act together, but a little too far to our east to really hit Boston.

Up the coast, in Down East Maine, another blizzard unfolded, with many areas receiving 10 to 20″ of windblown snow. This has resulted in many towns in coastal Maine to accumulate over 50″ of snow on the ground!

As the storm intensified, a backlash of light powdery snow even made it down to Boston. That coupled with ferocious bitter cold winds, accounted for a very wintery Saturday morning across eastern Massachusetts.

On a more serious note, this winter has quickly turned from the winter that wasn’t, to the winter that was! Needless to say, I should of kept my original winter forecast made back in November, rather than bailing on it in December. It was a poor judgement call on my part. All of the winter clues I use to formulate my forecast all had merit. This is all water under the bridge now, as I updated my forecast, and can’t go back to the original one now. Oh well, live and learn!

Just because the forecast was wrong, does not mean I can’t retrieve that information moving forward! In fact, it’s imperative that I use the original forecast for the safety of my reader’s. Also to keep evryone abreast of a winter that has already been historic in many areas!

So what happened to make this winter bite with a vicious attack? Well, it was well documented for weeks the amount of potential this winter had to offer. A very mild, tranquil December obviously gave us zero clue as to what kind of winter was in store for us. Again, the teleconnections, that were not coming through earlier, are now telling the real story.

Just to refresh everyone, here are some of those teleconnections talked about earlier in the fall. Abnormally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures are promoting a block in western Canada. This cuts off mild Pacific air from flooding the country, and reaching New England.

In fact, the opposite occurs. Bitter cold arctic air builds in central Canada pools to our north. As the season matures, cold high pressure buils north of New England. This presses the cold air south down into New England. Now, adding fuel to the fire, we have added a very active southern jet stream, supplying the moisture.

In addition, a very energetic northern jet stream is supplying very energetic packages of vorticity (atmospheric spin). When these two branches phase together, powerful storms such as last week’s blizzard is the outcome.

Other things to consider, is a ongoing weak El nino, which help supplies moisture in the sub tropical jet stream. In addition, just enough high latitude blocking is finally showing up, to keep the cold air funneling into New England, and slowing down the storms along the coast.

So where do we go from here? After reviewing long range weather data, I’m afraid this pattern has locked into New England for the foreseeable future. In fact, it could get worse before it begins to slowly release its grip.

Why, you ask? High latitude blocking may become more prevelent as we move deeper into February and March. If this develops, it will keep cold air pressing into New Engalnd. This, coupled with a very strong subtropical jet stream developing in the Pacific, will send endless amounts of storms marching across the country from California to New England.

When these storms reach the east coast, they may develop into nor’easters. and head up towards New England. For this reason, I believe New England, and maybe even Boston potentially has even one more blockbuster storm or blizzard left before we turn the corner. Looking back at the analogs we use, this winter matched up nearly perfectly with the famed winter of 1977-78.

In that winter, Boston experienced a blizzard on January 2oth, 1978. That storm actually held the record as the largest storm in Boston history in the month of January.

This record held up until last Tuesday’s blizzard became the #1 January storm of all time in Boston, with 24.5″ falling at Logan Airport. Some areas of the city actually measured up to 31″ of snow!

With todays snowstorm, some areas are approaching near record snowpack accumulations on the ground. As we are having multiple snowfalls falling on top of existing snows. Currently, Worcester, Ma. has over 40″ on the ground, and parts of  coast of Maine have over 50″ on the ground and counting! If this were to continue, it could reach unprecedented levels across the region.

After that January storm in 1978, the greatest blizzard ever to hit Boston and eastern Massachusetts struck on February 6th and 7th, 1978. Will history repeat itself this year? I feel we have a better than average shot at another blockbuster storm. That, coupled with frequent smaller snowfalls, may put this winter in the record books as a top 3 winters in history!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter forecast. Winter storm warnings remain in place across the Boston area until about midnight tonight. I will rate this week a 2 out of 10 on the winter severity index.

ell For the rest of this afternoon, watch for the nor’easter to continue, with snow, heavy at times along with blowing and drifting snow. When the storm finishes tonight, many areas will have received betwen 10 and 14″ of snow. Temperatures will also be plummeting down into the teens.

Expect heavy snow to diminish later today, and be done by about 9 P.M. tonight. It will remain bitterly cold tonight as skies clear, with lows in the single digits and low teens.

Tuesday will feature mainly sunny weather and cold weather. If you are going to the victory parade for the Patriots, bundle up! Temperatures will mainly be in the upper teens, with ineffective sunshine.

With a deep snowpack in place, expect very cold temperatures tomorrow night. Under clear skies and light winds, temperatures may fall to minus 10 to plus 5 degrees across the region.

Wednesday should feature mainly sunny skies again, with temperatures moderating a bit. With sunshine, and light winds, it will feel tolerable during the afternoon, with highs between 25 and 30 degrees.

Watch for clouds to be on the increase Wednesday night, with lows falling back to the 20’s.

Latest computer models are now indicating that yet another nor’easter may be moving up the coast for Thursday. If this is true, wet snow would spread up the coast, with increasing northeast winds. At this point, it appears to be a fast moving storm,  which may limit accumulations.

Despite the fast movement, it has the potential to be strong. I could still see an accumulation of over 6″ of heavy wet snow in some places. It could also have rain involved near the coast with marginal temperatures. I will certainly keep everybody updated with this potentially dangerous winter storm if conditions warrant.

After that storm moves by, expect fair weather to return for Friday and Saturday, with the continuation of cold temperatures.

Later in the weekend, and the start of next week, we may have to deal with another storm situation all over again. That storm could have greater implications, with cold air available, and a developing Greenland Block, it is definitely something which will need to be monitored.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a long range outlook as to what the rest of February may bring us, and take a peek at to what  March may have in store for us this year. I will also be on the look out for any other additional winter storms! In the meantime, I heard the Groundhog saw his shadow this morning. For once, our forecasts agree, 6 more week’s of winter ahead!

Thanks for reading, & be safe!

Pete

Nor’easter…To Bury The Groundhog! 2/1/15

Hello! Happy Super Bowl Sunday…Go Patriots! Fortunately, today will feature mainly sunny and dry weather. This is important, as everyone can travel to Super Bowl parties and return home safely, without worrying about the weather. At the stroke of midnight tonight, things will begin to change!

You would think after last week’s historic blizzard, Mother Nature would have gotten this massive event out of her system, and leave us alone for a while. Well, this does not seem to be the plan for us here in winter 2014-15

With all of the talk centered around today’s game, some folks are unaware that a major nor’easter will be blanketing much of the region all day tomorrow! As with all nor’easter’s, this one brings its own set of challenges.

This is a massive storm, which has origins from the south Pacific ocean. As it moves into the center of the nation, it is clashing with bitter cold air coming down from Canada, and warm, moist air coming up from the south.

After hitting Chicago today, this storm will be forced to move nearly due east heading into tomorrow, right towards New England. With arctic high pressure banked to our north, this will force the storm to transfer energy south of Long Island. At this point, the storm will begin to rapidly intensify while tapping moisture off of the Atlantic Ocean.

This is a classic track to really clock much of the Boston area with a heavy snowstorm. Due to the contrast in temperature (baroclinic zone), heavy amounts of snow are possible. No, the totals will not be as great as last week’s blizzard, but still will be a impressive winter storm in its own right.

With all that being said, let me get right into the details. As mentioned above, expect sunny and dry weather for the rest of your Super Bowl Sunday. It will be cold, with highs mainly in the 20’s. Thankfully, the ferocious winds of yesterday will be replaced with light winds today. Later in the day, you will definitely notice an increase in high clouds streaming in from the west.

After the Patriots win the game tonight, expect increasing and thickening clouds on your way home from the game. Later tonight, well after midnight, expect snow to rapidly spread from west to east across the state, reaching the Boston area between 3 and 5 A.M.

Once the snow moves in, it will begin to rapidly accumulate along with deteriorating road conditions. I fully expect many, if not all schools and many businesses to be cancelled tomorrow. This makes it especially true due to the fact we have such a deep snowpack, as well as gigantic snowbanks already on the ground.

If there is a commute tomorrow, expect snow to be falling heavily, with 1 to 2″ an hour snowfall rates falling. Along with the heavy snow, northeast winds will begin to increase from between 30 and 40 m.ph. in Boston, and between 40 and 50 m.ph. along the south shore and down towards the Cape.

Here in Boston and points to the north and due west, expect heavy snow to continue up until about 1 P.M. Thereafter, expect snow to continue falling the rest of the day and well into the evening. Rather than 1 to 2″ per hour, it will be more like a half inch to an inch per hour, which is still a steady accumulating snow.

Due to the tight baroclinic zone, and intrusion of some warm air aloft, some may see some mixing during the height of the storm. If you live south of Boston, and possibly even up into the city of Boton itself, and also from Quincy, to Randolph, to Foxborough then over to Plymouth, a period of sleet will cut down on snow accumulations. Sleet is like a little ball of ice, which bounces on contact. It may keep accumulations down, but will not make clean up any easier.

Points further south of Plymouth, along the south coast of New England, and Cape Cod, this will be yet another storm dealing with the clash of bitter cold air to your north, and warm moist air from the ocean trying to intrude from the south and east. This will be another nasty storm.

Heavy snow will transition to heavy sleet, and possbly even all rain for a time. As the storm pulls to your east later in the afternoon, winds will shift back to the north, dragging cold air in, and rapidly changing any mixed precipitation or rain back over to snow. It will also be windy, with northeast to northerly winds gusting up to 50 m.ph. This will be enough to again result in power outages across the area.

Look for snow to slowly diminish from west to east tomorrow night. It will still be windy and turn bitterly cold, with lows dropping into the single digits and low teens Tuesday morning. Early clouds and flurries may greet some folks along the coast Tuesday, otherwise watch for increasing sun the rest of the day, with temperatures mainly in the 20’s.

So how much snow am I expecting? If you live in the city of Boston, I am expecting between 10 and 12″ of snow and sleet.  If you live outside of Rt 128 to the west and north towards Worcester, and up into southern Vermont and N.H. and all the way to the N.H. and Maine seacoast, I am expecting a good 12 to 15″ of snow to fall. There may even be some higher elevation areas that receive between 18 and 20.” If you live further north from here, amounts may be less, due to less moisture reaching your area.

If no sleet mixes in the city of Boston and points to the south, you too could expect similar amounts of snow. However, if sleet does mix in, this could cut accumulations down to 7 to 11″ along the south shore, building up to 10 to 12″ in Boston. However, as I mentioned above, this is no bargain, as it will make snow removal even more difficult to deal with.

If you live down the Cape, you can expect everything but the kitchen sink! Watch for heavy snow at first, then mixing with sleet and rain, then going back to snow. This will make for a very difficult clean up. You can expect anywhere from between 4 and 8″ of wet, heavy snow, depending upon how much mixing and rain gets involved.

Well that’s about it for now! As always, with storms like these, nothing is gauranteed. There always could be busts and some surprises. At this point, this is my best educated esimate as to what we should expect. If there are any significant changes, I will be sure to either update this blog, or post it on Facebook! As always, don’t hesitate to ask me any questions! In the meantime, it’s double excitement time for me, with a nor’easter coming and the Patriots in the Super Bowl! Be safe & ****GO PATRIOTS!!!!****

Thanks for checking in!

Pete

BLIZZARD WITH ALL THE WORKS! 1/26/15

Hi folks! Time is very tight today, but I did want to update everyone on what will turn into a whopper of a storm for many! As of this update, the flakes are starting to fly. As one observer friend reported to me from Plymouth, “very tiny flakes but coming down at a steady pace!”

Yes, this will be the theme for the next couple hours in the Boston area. So if you can get done what you need to do to prepare for the storm, now is the time to do it! The real storm does not start moving into the area until after dark.

This is just the beginning stages. The low pressure area is currently just a mass of moisture sitting off the mid-atlantic coast. However, there is a strong bundle of energy in the upper atmosphere (also called a short wave) racing towards this area of moisture.

When this bundle of energy merges with that area of moisture, it’s going to explosively develop our storm. As the storm develops, it will begin to slowly move north, northwest. Yes, you read that correctly, towards the northwest! Normal cyclones develop and move towards the northeast.

The cause of this is due to a block in the atmosphere to the northeast of New England. This forces the storm to move towards the northwest. In addition a strong area of high pressure to our north will impede the forward progress of the storm, essentially stalling it south of Nantucket.

As the storm rapidly intensifies, the pressure gradient will tighten between the high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. This, in conjunction with the rapidly intensifying storm, will push a wall of snow, along with blizzard conditions into eastern Massachusetts. Winds will also be strong, first out of northeast, then backing around to the north, with gusts up to 60 mph!  This will cause considerable blowing and drifting of the snow, along with whiteout conditions at times.

With the storm being so intense, do not be surprised if you also hear thunder while it’s snowing. This is due to the rapid rising motion of the air, resulting in convection.

As the storm stalls south of New England tomorrow, bands of heavy snow will continue to spin in off of the ocean well into Tuesday night!

This is the critical part. Just where these bands set up will determine which communities are in the bullseye to receive the most snow! As I mentioned in my forecast last evening, computer models are still targeting areas just south of Boston for receiving the very most snow totals!

As the storm gets going, I will begin nowcasting.  This is when you follow radar very carefully seeing to where these intense bands set up across Massachusetts.

As always, it’s very challenging predicting just how much snow your town is going to receive. Computer models generally do a good job giving me a good idea where the most moisture will fall. With this storm, computer models have been all over the place, in regards to who is going to get the most snow. In storms like this, there is always going to be some surprises.

So what’s my latest thinking. Well, after reviewing all of the data, I am still calling for the city of Boston to get clocked with between 20 and 24″ of snow. I realize this may be a bit on the conservative side, but this is how I see it for now.

This is real tricky. If there is the slightest shift in the storm, and bands set up over the city, even more snow could fall. I will be monitoring this very carefully.

If you live south of Boston, again, I am  forecasting between 24 and 30″ of snow. Some isolated towns may receive up to 36″ if any banding stalls over the area. These areas include towns such as Easton, Brockton, heading over to Plymouth area. There could be other areas on Boston’s north shore which also exceed two feet of snow.

As mentioned last night, Cape Cod could get hit the worst. This is because of near hurricane force winds, and driving wet snow, which will stick to trees and power lines. This will result in power outages and trees limbs down. Snow totals won’t be as high, ranging between 10 and 18,” but the hardship will be just as severe.

With all that in mind, here is my latest forecast. Watch for the storm to quickly ramp up this evening, with steady snow developing from south to north. Later, after 11:00 PM, blizzard conditions will begin to move in.

From about midnight tonight, to about noontime tomorrow, very heavy snow will be falling at a rate of 1 to 3″ of wind driven snow, with blizzard conditions. After noon tomorrow, the storm will not be over. It will continue to snow,  however it will become more banded and squally in nature. It will also continue to be very windy, with blowing and drifting snow.

These bands will continue well into tomorrow night, adding to the accumulations. As we head into Wednesday morning, any light snow and flurries will be moving out, with sunshine breaking through the clouds during the afternoon.

Thursday will feature increasing clouds, with yes, more snow developing late in the day and at night. Light snow may continue into Friday. Right now, I am looking for a snowfall of 2 to 4″ of snow out of this.

Not huge, but will just add insult to injury. Expect very cold and dry weather to be the rule this weekend.

There may be more snow at the beginning of next week. Expect severe winter conditions with severe cold and several more snowstorms coming for the foreseeable future.

Also, in case you have not heard, Boston schools will be closed both tomorrow and on Wednesday. In addition, there is a driving ban beginning at midnight tonight. We are also in a state of emergency.

Well that’s about it for now! I will be updating frequently during the storm on Facebook and on Twitter. Please feel free to message me with any questions. I will also update this blog, just in case the system on Friday turns out to be bigger than what I am currently thinking. In the meantime, it’s time to batten down the hatches, winter is here!

***GO PATRIOTS!!***

Thanks for checking in…and please be safe!

Pete

BLIZZARD WARNING! 1/25/15

Hello, everyone! Just wanted to give everyone a update on the major winter storm/blizzard headed to New England! The big question now is, not whether the storm is coming, but rather whether this is going to be just a strong nor’easter, or turn into a dangerous blizzard.

Personally, I don’t like to throw the term blizzard around loosely. I feel the blizzard is the king of all winter storms. In my life, I have been fortunate enough to witness true blizzard conditions a handful of times here in Boston. I could list them out for you, but that’s for another day and another time!

Let’s get right into the details! After reviewing the very latest data, I feel confident enough to forecast a blockbuster storm heading our way!  When I mean blockbuster, I typically use an accumulation scale of anything that’s 20″ or more of snow. As is typical in these storms, some areas are going to get more snow than others. I will detail these areas shortly in my forecast.

I can see how it can get a bit overwhelming. With everyone having an opinion on the storm, even folks that don’t even follow or understand the weather are chiming in with their accumulations! That’s fine, it’s a free country. Everybody is entitled to their opinion!

So what are my thoughts on how this storm is going to play out? First, let me discuss briefly the set up to the storm.

To get a blockbuster storm in the winter, you need the right ingredients. The first thing you need is cold air. We will have that. An arctic cold front has quietly moved through New England this afternoon. After this front moved through, a strong area of arctic high pressure will anchor itself north of New England.

This will act as two things. Number one, it will supply cold air into the developing nor’easter. And two, it will block the forward progress of the storm south of New England, not allowing it to race out to sea like typical storms.

When you establish this, the next thing you need is moisture. A strong disturbance in the atmosphere, also called an area of vorticity, or atmospheric spin, is currently charging towards the mid-atlantic coast. When this storm hits the coast, it will merge with moisture of the Atlantic coast. At this point, the storm will begin to rapidly intensify, and begin to move north, towards Nantucket. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the north, and low pressure to the south, will begin to create gale force wind gusts along the coast.

In fact, the storm is going to become so intense, that some models are forecasting storm force winds over the ocean. These are winds of between 50 and 73 mph. With Cape Cod sticking out in the ocean, it is possible that some of these wind gusts could blow through the Cape. Other areas of the south shore, such asPlymouth, Scituate and Hull, may have winds of between 40 and 60 mph. For those wondering, this is not as strong as the Blizzard of ’78.

This storm will not be the Blizzard of ’78. However, I do want to make sure to let you that this will be a dangerous storm in its own right. In fact, this storm may be similar to the the a blizzard we had back in January of ’05. In that storm, Boston’s south shore was buried between 24 and 38″ of snow!

With all that in mind, let me get right to the forecast! Because in the end, folks just want to know when it starts, how much is going to fall, and when is it going to end!

Currently, the NWS has issued a blizzard warning for much of eastern Massachusetts, including Boston. This means, blizzard conditions are imminent.

Tonight will feature mainly clear skies and colder temperatures, with lows dropping into the teens. Monday morning will dawn clear, calm and cold. This will be the calm before the storm. If you’re up early enough, you may witness a red sky in the morning. Red sky in the morning, sailor take warning! These will be some high clouds from the leading edge of the storm.

Shortly after dawn, clouds will rapidly thicken, and winds will begin to turn into the northeast. As this happen, ocean effect snow showers may begin to develop along the coast by late morning.  As we move into the afternoon, winds will begin to freshen from the northeast, and general light snow will develop across the rest of the region. This is going to be a slow moving, long duration storm, we’re just warming up here, folks.

Look for heavy snow to begin to move into New England Monday night from south to north. Winds will also increase from the northeast and gust btween 30 and 40mph, stronger along the shore. Expect much of  Massachusetts to be shut down on Tuesday.

Watch for blizzard conditions throughout the day, with heavy snow, white out conditions at times, and gale to storm force winds. Expect the blizzard to continue well into Tuesday night with snow, heavy at times, and strong winds. Later on Tuesday night, the center of the storm will finally begin to slowly drift away and weaken. As this happens, snow will slowly begin to wind down and winds will begin to diminish. It’s possible that light snow will actually linger along the coast in eastern Massachusetts until about noon on Wednseday!

Two more things I would like to discuss. First, coastal flooding potential. Second, how much snow is going to fall!! Because this storm is going to stall south of New England, and winds will be fierce out of the northeast, coastal flood warning is now in effect!

I am concerned about at least a moderate to even major flood event occurring here along the coast! If you live along the east faced coastline, please prepare yourself for possible evacuations, and coastal flooding! This will be especially true at the time of high tide during the peak of the storm on Tuesday afternoon!

Vulnerable areas such as Plymouth, Marshfield, Scituate, Hull, Revere, and Gloucester should be on gaurd during this storm! It goes without saying, but I will say it anyway, be prepared to evacuate if you live on Plum Island, and all other coastal areas!

Finally, total snowfall from the blizzard. Right now, I am predicting a blockbuster storm for Boston. To cover the area, I am calling for between 20 and 24″ of snow in Boston. This is taking, what I believe, a conservative approach for now. If we get into some of the heaviest bands of snow, it’s not out of the question that this turns into a record breaking blizzard. This would mean snow accumulations of greater than 27.5.” I’m not calling for that at this point, but definitely something I will be monitoring.

That is a big storm, but if you live south of Boston, interior south shore and interior southeastern Ma. this is where I believe the jackpot will be. This is where I believe the heaviest bands of snow will continue to swirl in off the ocean, burying this area! I am currently forecasting between 24 and 36″ of snow in this area. This would be a near historic storm!

If you live north and west of Boston, you too can expect a very heavy storm, with generally between 1 and 2 feet of snow. This area will certainly extend up along the coast of N.H. and coastal Maine. Areas across the deep interior of N.H. and  Vermont, can also expect heavy snow. However, being further away from the center of the storm, accumulations may not be as great as eastern and southeastern Massachusetts.

Finally, the Cape. Because the Cape Cod is a peninsular, and sticks out into the ocean, they typically bear the brunt of nor’easters. This will be no exception. Many areas of the Cape is under a blizzard watch as well. If you live on the Cape, you can expect a fierce storm, with near storm force winds and heavy snow.

Even if the snow mixes or even changes to rain for a time, colder air will work back into the storm changing any mixed precipitation to heavy wet snow. Due to the heavy wet snow, there is the potential for power outages and tree limbs breaking. Cape Cod residents can expect between 10 and 20″ of snow.

Well that’s about it for now! If you have any questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to message me on Facebook or Twitter. I am in storm mode, and ready to answer any questions! I will periodically doing updates during the duration of the storm. I will also be updating my regularly scheduled blog tomorrow morning in case there are any changes. There will always be some surprises! Please, be safe, be smart. Don’t forget about the elderly and pets!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Stormy Saturday! 1/23/15

Hi folks! Just wanted to give everyone a quick update on our first real winter storm of the 2014-15 winter season! For those who love winter, this has been a long time in the making! Let’s get into all of the details!

This is going to be a quick hitting, high impact storm. Because the storm is moving up the eastern seaboard, and will pass east of Cape Cod, this can be classified as a nor’easter.

Currently, the storm is developing off of the Carolina coast, and is beginning to make its move up the coast. Once this storm approaches Nantucket Island, it will begin to rapidly intensify. With the lack of any high latitude blocking up in Greenland, the storm will be a fast mover, quickly exiting the region between 7 and 9 PM tomorrow evening.

After reviewing the latest weather data, here is my latest thinking on how this storm is going to pan out across the region.

Watch for snow to quickly overspread the Boston area between 5 and 7 AM tomorrow morning. Because of marginal temperatures, look for the snow to stick to trees and grassy areas, but likely just melt on area roads. Snow will continue in Boston likely into late morning.

At that point, look for a mixture of ice pellets and rain to mix in with the snow. In fact, if you live in Boston, and points south, the mix may actually change to heavy rain for a time.

Further to the north and west of Rt 128 expect heavy snow to briefly mix with sleet and rain. The further inland you are, the more snow you will receive.

As you move deeper inland, towards Worcester, and Nashua, N.H. you can expect mostly heavy wet snow to be falling all day.

Later in the day, as the storm intensifies to our east, winds will turn more northerly. At this point, watch for any rain and mixed precipitation to rapidly change back to heavy wet snow right into Boston. Expect roads to become treacherous later in the day even inside of Rt 128. Roads will be hazardous nearly all day as you travel to the north and west of Rt 128.

As the storm intensifies, expect northeast winds to pick up, possibly gusting to between 30 and 40 mph during the late afternoon. Because of the quick movement of the storm, I am not expecting any significant coastal flooding, other than some stormy seas.

So how much snow can we all expect? Right now, because of the expected mix in the city, I am holding accumulations down to between 3 and 6.” It may be a case of 3″ out at Logan Airport, to as much as 5 or 6″ in the West Roxbury, western Brookline, Chestnut Hill area.

If you live just north and west of Rt 128, accumulations will increase to between 5 and 8.” Further inland, where it stays all snow, you can expect between 6 and 10″ of heavy wet snow. These areas include much of Worcester county, Nashua, N.H., and even the Portsmouth, N.H. region. Further north, less snow will fall because they will be further away from the center of the storm.

With the snow clinging and weighing down trees, there is always the chance of some scattered power outages across the state.

Snowfall amounts will decrease south of Boston, especially if you live close to the ocean. I am expecting 2 to4″  on the south shore, but 3 to 6″ across the interior locations such as Easton and Mansfield areas. Lesser amounts will fall down the Cape,with maybe an inch or two, as the storm pulls away.

Currently this is my best estimate. What could go wrong? Plenty! The tricky part of the forecast is right along Rt 128 including Boston. If the storm intensifies even more than forecasted, any mix of precipitation may turn to heavy wet snow, resulting in heavier accumulations than forecasted, even here in Boston. 

Conversely, if the warm air penetrates the coastal plain, and is stubborn to leave, less snow will fall. Right now, I am leaning towards a slightly colder solution. After reviewing the latest computer models, I do believe many areas will turn to heavy snow during the afternoon, resulting in the accumulations posted above.

Well that’s about it for now. If you have any questions, please feel free to message me and ask! I will give updates if conditions warrant. In the meantime, if you don’t have to travel tomorrow, just relax and watch Mother Nature do her thing!

Thanks for checking in!

Pete

First Snowstorm Of The Winter…1/20/15

Hi folks! Had a great weekend up in Lake Placid, N.Y.!  If you have never been, I would highly recommend planning a road trip. It is geared for people who love winter! After all, the 1980 winter olympics were held there!

So, if you like snow, skiing, tabogganing, ice skating, hockey, snow shoeing, along with countless of other fun activities, this is the place for you! Along with all of the outdoor activities, there was also plenty of fine restaurants and very nice stores for those who enjoy shopping! I am also happy to report that my nephew’s hockey team were the tournament champs!

As for the weather, while rain was the rule down here, snow turned the landscape into a winter wonderland Sunday night and into Monday where I was. Nestled in the Adirondack Mountains, I could see that it snows quite a bit up there.

To be quite honest with you, I didn’t want to leave! This quaint village up in the mountains is my idea of living! I loved doing all of the winter outdoor activities! It was quite depressing heading back home to bare ground again!

It has been a snowless winter in Boston so far. Even up there, they have not received the normal amounts of snow that they would normally receive by this time of the year. Being close to the Vermont border, their weather patterns are similar to New England.

The difference is the elevation. The village is nearly 2,000 feet above sea level, with surrounding mountains much higher than that. This means it’s colder, and because of orographic lift, more moisture falls up there in the form of snow. I read Lake Placid, on average, receives 133″ of annual snowfall. This is three times more snow than Boston!

So what about Boston? Is it going to snow this winter, or what? As I was scrolling through my Facebook last evening when I returned, a friend of mine messaged me saying she heard Boston was in for some big snows coming soon. I was quite surprised to read this. I knew the pattern had potential, but nothing was for sure.

Well, after reviewing all of my sources today, I can tell you that it does appear as if the Boston area will be under the gun for snowstorms over the next 20 days or so. Does this mean we are going to get buried by a blizzard? No, I don’t see the parameters in the atmosphere setting up for a blockbuster storm just yet.

However, if the snow does start falling, it may be laying the groundwork for a type of storm I envisioned us having this winter. This is especially true sometime in the beginning of February. Currently, we are still lacking some meteorological ingredients to really bury us with a whopper.

We still don’t have any high latitude blocking over Greenland. We still can get a heavy snowfall, but the way the pattern is set up, it would be a progressive event. Meaning it would not be a slow mover, and heavy snow would be limited to a 6 to 12 hour period.

To really get a blockbuster, you need heavy snow to be falling for at least between 18 and 24 hours. Then you could be talking about a storm of possibly over 20″ of accumulation. Just beacuse it’s not there today, does not mean that it won’t  suddenly appear within a short notice. This is what makes forecasting these big storm so difficult around here.

If the jet stream aligns itself more parallel to the coast, I can envision a snowy period of weather as we head into February and even March. Earlier in the season, above normal ocean temperatures kept the coastal plain warmer, and changed  any snow into rain.

Later, as the oceans continue to cool, the baroclinic zone of relatively warm ocean temperatures, and arctic cold air over land, may fuel several heavy nor’easters to strike.

There still also exists the possibility of the Greenland Block to develop. If this were to occur, it could “trap” a nor’easter south of New England, pounding the area with a blockbuster storm.  I am closely watching for the possibility of this happening.

In the meantime, it does appear as if the weather pattern is finally becoming more active for storms. As early as this weekend, a nor’easter will be developing down the coast. If this storm comes close enough, we could be looking at a decent storm of say 8 to 12.” However, there is an equal chance that the heaviest moisture remains just offshore, and only brings us a light to moderate snowfall.

After that goes by, another storm may threaten us at the beginning of next week. I will be monitoring these events very closely this week. This could be the start of a potentially very stormy period of winter weather here in eastern Massachusetts. We just have to wait and see how this develops.

Sometimes, when you look back on winter seasons, you say to yourself, oh yeah, remember how that first storm primed the area for a winter barrage of storms? This could be that “primer” storm. We shall see!

With all that being said, the current patterns look great for ski resorts and other outdoor winter activities. it appears as if the cold air is locked here in the northeast for at least the next two weeks. There also will be chances for snow, depending on how close these nor’easters come to New England, will determine how much snow falls in ski country.

Right now, I would favor more snow towards the I95 corridor. Continued cold weather will allow for more snowmaking and maintaining outdoor skating rinks.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I am rating this week a 4 out of 10. Colder, with a possible storm this weekend. Expect cold weather tonight, but nothing unusual. Temperatures will fall back into the teens and twenties.

Watch for a milky appearance to the sky tomorrow. It will feel like snow, but I am not anticipating much around Boston. If you live down the Cape, you may experience a period of snow later in the day into tomorrow night, with maybe up to an inch of accumulation.

As the storm makes it’s closest pass to Boston, a few flurries or very light snow may brush us with a feather dusting early Thursday.

Otherwise, watch for increasing sun and pleasant temperatures to return for later Thursday and into Friday, highs will generally be in the low to mid 30’s. The period of concern centers around later Saturday into early Sunday.

Right now, I am calling for increasing clouds with snow developing later in the day. I will take the conservative route at this point, and call for light to moderate snow to continue Saturday night into Sunday morning. We will need to plow and break out the snow blowers from what looks like to be a  moderate snowfall of 4 to 7.”

However, if this storm trends closer to the coast and intensifies, this number could swell to 8 to 12″ of  a heavier, wetter snow, along with stronger northeast winds and possible coastal issues.

If this scenerio would to become more likely, I will certainly post an update by Friday. After the storm goes by, clearing and very cold temperatures will return for later Sunday. Another storm may threaten at the beginning of next week.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be analyzing our winter pattern and seeing if I see any consistency developing. I will also be watching for any development of the Greenland Block. In addition, I will have a new ski and winter activity forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the winter, go to Lake Placid, visit a New England ski resort. It’s all beautiful unless you have to drive in it! I get It!

Thanks for checking in!  ***GO PATRIOTS!!!***

Pete