Snow Drought Continues…1/12/15

Hello! Overall, it was a fairly nice winter weekend across much of New England. After last week’s arctic blast, temperatures moderated somewhat yesterday, with many communities approaching 30 degrees. After the bitter cold of last week, this certainly brought new meaning to the phrase, “all things are relative.”

Yes, the cold came with a vengeance last week, with Thursday morning’s low temperature being the coldest it’s been in Boston over the last five years! Logan Airport recorded a sub zero low temperature of minus one degree, with many outlying areas as low as 7 below zero.

This was enough to cancel some schools, kill car batteries, and freeze pipes around the region. A gusty west wind added to the misery, making wind chill temperatures make it feel like 20 below zero at times. This was dangerous cold, but was it dangerous enough to cancel school?

I was quite surprised when I began seeing school closings scrolling at the bottom of newscasts. I realize I am going on down a bit of a controversial subject here, so I will be as diplomatic as possible. Call me old fashioned, but I don’t ever recall having school being cancelled because of cold when I was growing up.

Believe me, we had some rough winters in the 70’s, so I know we had weather like this growing up. I can remember bundling up like an eskimo, and off to school I went. When I arrived at school, I can still remember the hissing of the steam, blasting into the pipes!

As one friend on Facebook put it, “It’s January in New England, it gets cold.” Why not have a 2 hour delay, just in case there are any problems with transportation? As it turned out, it was a bright sunny day, and the winds were not as fierce as forecasted.

Don’t get me wrong, I am all for the safety of the kids. I just didn’t see the weather that day being justified to cancel schools. Who knows what the future holds in store for us? February and March could bring relentless snows with justified cancellations of schools. Then, they would of wished they had that day back. I bet if we had a couple school cancellations during December, the kids would of been off to school last Thursday. Ok, rant is over!

So, what’s up with this winter? Many folks are asking me if it’s going to snow. So far, I would say this winter has been a horrible bust. If you don’t like snow, I would say it’s been quite a pleasant surprise. To be honest, the way the pattern is looking, I can’t honestly say whether it’s really going to snow this winter, or not.

Right now, the current winter pattern reminds me of other snowless winters we have had in the past. So far, Boston hasn’t even accumulated 5″ of snow for the season.

I go back to the beginning of November, when all the leaves were still on the trees. Boston still had not received its first freeze, and a sloppy inch of snow fell, practically melting as it fell.

This, my friends, could be the kiss of death for this winter. This is one of the natural signs I use to determine how much snow will fall the following winter. You say, Pete, you forecasted a normal season of snowfall this year. In fact, your preliminary forecast back in November called for near record snows!! What happened??

Yes, this is all true. I will take the blame for this, and admit that I was wrong. The first part of my forecast was terrible. When calculated my natural signs for winter snowfall, I grossly underestimated the power of the wet snowfall before our first freeze. I put more weight into the overall November temperatures and precipitation patterns, over that subtle sign.

As it turned out, even the cold November wasn’t a very strong signal. November temperatures actually averaged out to be colder than what I normally look for, when forecasting for a big winter. Temperatures that average more than 2 degrees colder than normal in November, actually is a sign for a colder and drier winter. Temperatures that average close to normal is more ideal signal for a heavy winter.

It’s also imperative to receive a freeze (low temperature of 32 degrees), before you have an accumulating snow.  All this may seem trivial to many. Who cares? Well, I do.

Because I love the weather, and enjoy forecasting it, these statisitics are very important to me in understanding how Mother Nature works. As it turned out, I tried to outsmart Mother Nature, and now I’m paying for it. Not monetarily (thank God), but just the mental aspect. I feel as if I let some people down.

With all this being said, it is still only mid-winter, and I am counting on late season snows to bring the accumulations up a bit. Again, normal snowfall around the Boston area averages around 50,” with Logan Airport averaging 44.”

Will we even reach these numbers? As each week goes by, these numbers are going to be more and more difficult to reach. The overall pattern for the rest of January continues the theme of very little snowfall. For snow lovers, it has been very frustrating season so far. Every time a storm approaches, it brings warm air with it, changing any snow to rain. After the storm goes by, colder & drier weather returns.

This type of pattern seems to keep on repeating itself over and over again. Without any high latitude blocking over Greenland, this pattern will continue through the winter. It’s actually a very similar pattern to last winter, but last winter the cold was so overwhelming that the storms were more snow than rain.

We have not had a Greenland Block during the winter months for nearly two years now. Oddly enough, we had a Greenland Block all of last summer, which contributed to our cooler than normal summer. Quite unusual, indeed.

Again, to reach the accumulations I am forecasting, we will need an epic late season. It’s not like it hasn’t happened in the past. I have done research of nearly every winter in New England, and there has been winters like this in the past, which have had big endgames. In my lifetime, there was 1968-69, 1977-78, and 1996-97. All these winters had very little snow through the middle of January, but all ended up with above average snow!

With the days getting longer, some folks are starting to get excited about the arrival of spring! It’s true, the days are beginning to lengthen. However, the old saying says, “As the days lengthen, the cold strengthens!” This is due to the latent heat and cooling process the earth undergoes. The ocean is still cooling off from last summer! So even though the days begin to lengthen, the coldest period of the winter still lies ahead of us, until about mid-February. At that point, the sun slowly begins to warm the atmosphere, and the process is reversed.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Some chilly weather again this week after today. Watch for cloudy weather today. There will be a period of rain this afternoon into early this evening.

If you live well inland, north and west of I495, you will run into a mixture of light snow, sleet and freezing rain. Even here, you can only expect a coating to 2″ of crusty snow.

Later tonight , as the cold air rushes back in, light rain may change to a brief burst of light snow, even in Boston. I am only expecting a very light coating. But, roads could become briefly icy as temperatures plummet.

Expect cold and dry weather to return for tomorrow and Wednesday, with highs mainly in the 20’s, with a gusty wind.

For the period of Thursday through Sunday, expect fair weather, with a slow warming trend. Temperatures will be in the 30’s on Thursday through Saturday, then possibly the mid to upper 40’s on Sunday, under mainly dry conditions. Very benign weather for this time of the year.

For folks who are maintaining outdoor skating rinks. Despite the light rain of today, I am expecting quite a good week for the rinks. Colder temperatures will pour back into the region tonight through Wednesday. Later in the week, temperatures will moderate, but not enough to cause any meltdown. The period to watch for a thaw will be from this Sunday through next Wednesday. After that, colder weather should re-establish itself heading into February.

As for your ski forecast, not too bad. I would rate it a 6 out of 10. After some bitter cold weather the next day or two, temperatures will be moderating by next weekend. I don’t see any major storms, just some small systems with light accumulations of snow. Colder weather will allow for good snowmaking this week.

Well, that’s about it for now! I will be away next weekend, so the blog may be delayed until I return, or I may post a short update. I don’t foresee any snowstorms to be worried about, but if something changes, I will be sure to update everyone! When I do post, I will be taking another look into seeing if any snow is in our future. I will also have a new ski and snow boarding forecast, as well as a outdoor skating rink forecast. In the meantime, we may be in a snow drought today, but as we both know, things can change!  **Go Patriots!!**

Thanks for reading!

Pete

ARCTIC BLAST!! 1/5/15

Happy New Year! I hope everyone had a enjoyable holiday season! Now, with the holiday’s behind us, it’s time to concentrate on winter weather here in New England! So far, we have gotten off pretty easy, especially along the coast.

After a very warm and snowless December, the New Year has brought colder temperatures to much of the region. In addition, many saw accumulating snow Saturday night, only to once again turn to rain and slush here along the coastal plain. If you live north and west of I95, cold air damming held temperatures close to freezing, resulting in icy conditions well into Sunday.

To say that it has been an unusual winter so far, is an understatement. After last years consistantly cold and snowy weather, I should of known a different type of winter was in store for us this year.

Because of the sluggish start to winter, many have been asking me if winter is coming this year? Looking over the latest computer guidance, I can assure you, it’s coming. Is it going to be the animal I once thought back in autumn, probably not, the way I see it right now. However, it’s still early enough to make a significant impact on our lives before it quits. I will explain why in detail shortly.

A friend of a friend asked me a very good question last week. The question was whether the super typhoon near Japan during November caused the cold snap across much of the country?

The answer to this observation is, yes! As I have mentioned before in previous posts, many of these significant events that occur around the globe are connected in some way to our weather right here in New England! We call these teleconnections. This is what has made this winter so frustrating for me to forecast so far. Teleconnections which are normally very reliable, and play out our patterns as they should, just have not been in sync for some reason this winter.

For instance, back in November, when the super typhoon was heading west towards Japan, a sudden atmospheric shift caused the storm to abrubtly miss Japan, and recurve towards the north, then northeast. When typhoons recurve like this in the Pacific Ocean, it most certainly catches attention from meteorologists and weather folks such as myself.

The energy and heat associated with typhoons are drawn up in the storms circulation. So if the storm suddenly heads north, it will pump warm and humid air counterclockwise northward, as a ridge of high pressure (warm air), towards Alaska.

The teleconnection pattern associated with this type of event will then drive a deep trough of low pressure (cold air) downstream from the ridge, many times into the eastern third of the country. This was as text book of a teleconnection as you will ever see in this science.

Unfortunately, nothing has been as “connected” since! Personally, when I observed this event back in November, I believed it was a warning sign from Mother Nature to prepare for a severe winter ahead.

This, along with other teleconnections and analog patterns from years past were pointing toward a big winter for us here in New England. However, just as quickly as the cold air sweeped into the region during November, Mother Nature turned the tables on everyone, making December feel more like November.

To make matters worse, teleconnections went haywire during December, with Mother Nature not deciding whether she wanted to send winter this year or not. So far, a few of the ingredients are missing this year to turn this into a serious winter.

First, we lost the El Nino connection I was touting about all fall. This would of supplied a energetic sub tropical jet stream (moisture) into the pattern. It fired up in December, only to fizzle as we approached Christmas. This is the exact opposite of what’s supposed to happen.

Second, there has been no high latitude blocking (Greenland Block) to speak of so far this winter. Computer models continuously predicted that this was going to be a major player this winter…so far, nothing!

Third, the Atlantic Ocean temperatures have been much warmer than expected this winter, keeping the bitter cold and snowstorms away from the I95 corridor.

Can all of this change? Can winter still make a furious comeback? The answer to all of this depends on what Mother Nature wants to do! At this point, I can only offer my own experience and educated guess as to what’s in store for us for the rest of the winter.

There are some teleconnections which are still in favor for us this winter, if you like cold & snow. First, Pacific Ocean temperatures are still very favorable for promoting a blocking ridge of high pressure in the western part of the country, and Alaska. This cuts off mild Pacific air from flooding the country.

Second, the warm Atlantic Ocean may have saved us earlier in the winter from cold & snow. However, as the season matures, and the jet stream settles further south, this could actually be a breeding ground for nor’easters to intensify rapidly, due to the baroclinic zone contrast.

Third, there still is the possibility of the Greenland Block developing as we head deeper into winter. Computer models are still insisting that this will become a player. The Greenland Block, is when a blocking area of high pressure develops across Greenland. This forces the jet stream to buckle further south and align it along the east coast. When this happens, nor’easters form, and become large winter storms, sometimes even blizzards, especially along coastal New England. Because of the block, these storms tend to move slowly, and sometimes even stall south of New England.

If these factors come together, then yes, we still may get blasted with snow this winter. Right now, I am going to take the conservative approach, and stick to my updated forecast which I posted on December 21st. This calls for a winter with near to slightly above snowfall across much of New England. This would mean approximate snowfall of between 40 and 50″ around the Boston area. If you live south of Boston, along the south shore and towards Cape Cod, you can expect significantly less snow. Areas north and west of Boston, I am expecting between 50 and 60.” This includes southern New Hampshire.

As we stand right now, these are still pretty lofty numbers to reach at this point. As I mentioned last week, there is a big bust potential in these numbers. Looking over all of the resources I have, I am still expecting a late season rally this year to reach these accumulations. It’s entirely possible that the Boston area receives one or two major storms later in the season to make up the majority of the total snow for the winter. Keep in mind, I am expecting this winter to linger into March, and perhaps even early April.

In the shorter term, a bitter blast of cold weather has its eyes on New England later this week. This is good news for folks who have built outdoor skating rinks for winter fun! In fact, looking at the long range models, I can envision temperatures to mainly be below freezing for the next two weeks or so. Time to flood the rinks! Even here in Boston!

This is also great news for New England ski resorts. In addition to the colder weather, frequent clipper storms associated with the northern polar jet stream will deposit light powdery snowfalls every few days or so. Later in the month, there are some signs that the southern jet stream may become more active. If these two streams can phase together, that is when we can see a big snowstorm or two!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 3 out of 10. Very wintery with frequent flurries and bitter cold weather! For the rest of today expect falling temperatures throughout the day, with a gusty west wind. There may be a few flurries or snow showers at any point, so be on gaurd for that.

As shown what happened in N.H. last Friday, it doesn’t take alot of snow to make for icy roads! In fact, the quick hitting snow squalls can be the worst type of wintery driving conditions! Look for cold weather tonight with lows in the teens and twenties. It should remain on the dry side.

A fast moving clipper storm will travers through New England tomorrow. Look for areas of light snow and flurries at any point during the day, especially from the Mass. Pike south.

This system is moisture starved, so I am only looking for a dusting to at most an inch of snow. Temperatures will remain in the 20’s. Look for any lingering snow to end tomorrow night. It will be cold with lows in the teens and twenties.

Expect a slight moderation in temperatures on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 20’s and low 30’s. Later in the day, more snow squalls will traverse the state, resulting in brief whiteout conditions along with gusty winds.

Prepare for perhaps the coldest air in 3 years to move into Boston Wednesday night, with dangerous wind chill readings! Air temperatures will be around zero in Boston early Thursday morning, with wind chills approaching 30 below! Temperatures will only warm to the low teens on Thursday, under mostly clear conditions.

After another bitter cold night, watch for another system to bring a period of light snow on Friday with light accumulations. At this point, Saturday looks to be sunny and cold, with highs only in the upper 20’s. I will keep Sunday dry for now, but another storm will need to watched for either late Sunday or the beginning of next week for more of a significant snow.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a closer look at our new winter weather pattern, and letting everyone know when we could see our first significant snowstorm of the winter. I will also have your new outdoor skating rink and ski forecast. Next week, I will also discuss why as the days lengthen the cold strengthens! In the meantime, in order to appreciate the hot weather of summer, we must first endure winter’s arctic blast!  -GO PATRIOTS!!-

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Cold & Dry Weather To Greet 2015…12/29/14

Hello, everyone! I sincerely hope everyone had a nice Christmas and Hanukah holiday season! If you were dreaming of a White Christmas, this was not your year! Overall, it was about a worse case scenerio as you could get for weather patterns around here for cold and snowy conditions.

In fact, most of the United States did not have snow on the ground Christmas morning. Only higher elevations in the far west, such as Denver, Colorado had some snow.

If you live along I95, wishing for a White Christmas is mainly just that, wishing. Most years, it’s a very frustrating period, watching storms bring rainy, warm weather, too cold, or whatever it is, if it can go wrong, it usually does. I recall many years where a we receive a major snowstorm a couple days before Christmas, only to have  warm air surge up the coast from the south to melt it away by Christmas morning.

In reality, Boston only has about a 25% chance at a White Christmas. If you live inland, such as Worcester, Ma. or Manchester, N.H. your chances increase significantly to about 60% or so. Even these locations had a Green Christmas this year. I say green because that’s exactly what it was. With the warm temperatures this month and above normal amounts of rain, many lawns are still green out there!

If you wanted a White Christmas in New England, you had to travel way up north, and even there, warm temperatures and heavy rains made it very sloppy one at that.

It wasn’t just the fact that there was just no snow on Christmas. Soaking rains and temperatures soaring into the low 60’s on Christmas Eve made this Christmas one of the wettest and warmest in recent memory.

As if that wasn’t enough, Mother Nature continued the unusual weather with clearing skies and temperatures more like Easter on Christmas afternoon. The beautiful weather continued on Friday and Saturday, with brilliant sunshine, light winds, and temperatures in the 50’s. Sunday was also mild, but wasn’t as sunny.

On a positive note, the mild weather allowed folks to travel without any ice or snow issues to visit family and friends.

Of course, this is not always the case around here at this time of year. Typically, we would of seen at least one or two snowstorms, cold weather, and wintery conditions during December. If there isn’t snow on Christmas Day, it surely would be coming shortly thereafter.

Well, not this year! This has been a very unusual December around here. So far, Boston has only accumulated .3″ of snow. That’s not even a half an inch. This is more typical for somewhere in Georgia, not Massachusetts! In essence, this will go down as a nearly snowless December. Crazy as it sounds this is not a record in Boston.

The records are stacked up through the years with even less snow falling ranging down to a complete zero inches several years. Some cities, such as Hartford and Worcester will be in the top 10 of least amount of snow falling in this December, 2014.

I suppose this is what we love about New England, at least this is what I love about it. In any given year, you can expect a certain climate condition from nearly every part of the world. Even if it’s just for a couple hours. That’s how quickly the weather  changes around here. And you can follow these changes, from hour to hour, day to day, month to month, and from one year to another.

At any given point, we can experience cold, dry air from the arctic. Warm, muggy air from the tropics. Blizzards and snowstorms. Tropical storms and flooding. Also, don’t forget about hot, dry air from the desert!

For example, who would of thought December would of turned out like this after such a chilly November across much of the nation? We can take this a step further, and ask who would of thought the winter would of turned out like this so far this year? Speaking for myself, I know I didn’t. As for other major outlets that release their own versions of winter forecasts, some are doing better than others.

As bad of a forecast they published last year, NOAA or Climate Prediction Center have redeemed themselves this year, with so far having the best winter forecast of them all. As much as I like to follow the smaller, private outlets, I still consider NOAA the Godfather of weather forecasting. I don’t always agree with their overall climate agenda, but you have to hand it to them this winter for a forecast well done.

Other smaller outlets such as Accuweather out of Pennsylvania have also done a admirable job with this winter so far.

I will be the first to admit, my forecast for this month, and for this winter for that matter, has been way off. Yes, I did revise this forecast last Monday, but I still feel I missed the mark so far this winter. It’s still early, and things can change, but as I said last week, I was rattled to the core as to how things have gone this winter.

Looking ahead, I don’t see much change coming up in January. Many are calling for a huge atmospheric change to the weather patterns, but to be honest, I don’t see much coming. The computer models, teleconnections, and analogs can forecast all the extreme weather they want, but Mother Nature seems to beat on a different drum, and does what she wants, despite all the technology.

From what I am seeing today, you can expect a bit colder weather to push into New England for the first half of January. Later in the month, I am expecting a warmer than normal regime to once again regain control across the eastern third of the country. This will be puntuated with some colder weather at times, but overall, I am expecting January to end up being another warmer than normal month of temperatures.

As far as snowfall, there hasn’t been much so far here along the I95 corridor. I do expect at least some snow this month. Normal snowfall in Boston during January averages around 14.” From what I am seeing, I am expecting below normal snow to fall this Jaunuary in Boston.

For those who love snowy, cold weather, I feel your pain. This is a much more subdued forecast from what I had earlier in the year. Others will be rejoicing. I wish I had a firm answer to give the reason behind the change.

As I said last week, it’s very complicated, changeable weather patterns going on right now. This type of patterns typically signifies volatility to the pattern. From what I can see so far this winter, it’s the persistant warm water in the Atlantic Ocean, that’s keeping winter weather away from the east coast.

I also like to point out the natural signs I observed during the fall that do play a significant role in our winter. First, a snowfall before the first frost. Second, thunderstorms in October. Third, was a late first freeze. All of these were signs of a warmer than normal atmosphere.

Later in the season, I am expecting these signs to play a less significant role. As the Atlantic cools off, winter storms should begin to role into New England. This is true especially during February and March, when I expect most of our snow to accumulate this winter. So far, I am sticking with my revised forecast of near average amounts of snowfall, with one or two major nor’easters still possible.

I do have to say, there is a big bust potential on the table here. Sometimes patterns like we are in now, tend to frequently repeat throughout the season. So there is always a chance of a snow season which does not even reach average. I will be keeping an eye on this possibility.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Colder this week, but not much snow. Expect a mixture of sun with some clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will be colder than recent days, with highs mainly in th 30’s and low 40’s. Tonight will be chilly, with dry weather and temperatures mainly in the 20’s and low 30’s.

For the period of Tuesday through Friday, expect chilly weather, with highs in the upper 20’s and mid 30’s, with mainly dry conditions across the area. If you plan to go out to celebrate on New Year’s Eve, expect clear, cold & dry  weather, with lows in the teens and 20’s. This is fairly typical for this time of the year.

A storm will be approaching New England next weekend. As with most of the storms so far this year, it looks like mainly a rainstorm to me at this point. However, if the storm moves a bit further south, a more wintery type of system could evolve., especially north and west of Boston. There may be a brief period of sleet or snow to start, but a I am expecting mainly rain for later Saturday night into Sunday. I will update this blog if conditions warrant for this system next weekend.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be starting my ski forecast. It will be cold enough this week for resorts to begin making snow. No natural snow is expected through Friday. There may be some next weekend, but it also may just turn into an icy mix. I will also begin my outdoor skating rink forecast. In the meantime, remember this weather saying, “As the days lengthen, the cold strengthens.” I will explain this next week as well!

Have a Safe & Happy New Year!

Pete

Revised Winter Forecast: Big Changes! 12/22/14

Hello, everyone! All in all, it was a decent weekend of weather in these parts for the latter part of December. Especially considering what was supposed to happen yesterday. While some isolated areas actually received an inch or two of snow, most just saw sugar coatings, and spritzes of snow later Saturday into Saturday. Again, this is a far cry on what was supposed to be a Winter Solstice nor’easter yesterday. Oh, there was a storm, but this turned out to be much weaker, and passed harmlessly out to sea.

Folks, not to become too emotionally attached to my forecast and the weather, but I am shaken to the core at the turn of events over the last week. I know, I always say don’t mess with Mother Nature, and that she ultimately has the final say at how things turn out, but wow, this is huge!

Where to begin? First, not to make excuses, but this is exactly why I implemented the preliminary seasonal forecast just before the meteorological season begins (December 1st for winter, June 1st for summer). Then, because things can change, make a final forecast when the true astronomical season arrives, which was yesterday, December 21, being the first day of winter.

It’s been a long haul. Going back to last summer, it appeared that all the parameters were there for a severe winter this year, especially for New England. After a cold and stormy November, I felt very good going into winter 2014-15 with my forecast. However, even the perfect set up sometimes doesn’t deliver the results you want. This goes not only for weather, but in life as well.

The final straw that broke the camels back was the forecast for this week. A couple week’s ago, this week looked like it was going to be an epic week of cold and snowstorms for much of the nation, inluding for us, here in New England. As it urns out, the Christmas Eve storm is going to bring windswept soaking rains, and temperatures feeling more like Florida than New England. So not only are many not going to receive a White Christmas, but if some sun pokes through on Thursday, it may feel more like a warm day in April, rather than December.

With all this being said, after reviewing all my sources, it appears that this winter is not going to go as I originally thought back in November. Looking back, there were a few things I didn’t like over the autumn season. However, there were some good things as well. I took a gamble thinking the good things would override the bad things. As it turned out, the things that bothered me, came back to haunt my forecast.

Aside for a couple week’s in November, it has been a very warm autumn, especially along the coast. This was a first warning sign. The ocean temperatures just aren’t cooling off fast enough this year.

Second, remember we talked about the thunderstorms we got during a storm back in October? Thunder in October is never a good sign…period! It represents warm air in the atmosphere during a time when it’s supposed to be turning colder. This tends to show itself later in the season as mild weather.

Third, and possibly the most damaging sign, was when it snowed before we received our first temperature of 32 degrees. This is NEVER a good sign! Again, it represents a warm atmosphere during the fall.

Our first freeze was late in Boston as well, representing a warmer theme to the season. Now, as we go deeper into the season, I can see these warning signs are coming to fruition. Every storm that tries to approach, warms up and changes to rain. You may say, the weather is going to do what it wants to do, despite your signs, and teleconnections. This too, is absolutely true!

These are the natural signs that I rely on to formulate my winter forecast for Boston. The one positive sign, and one that could salvage the winter, is that November temperatures did end up below average at Logan Airport. This in itself could mean average snowfall may still indeed occur this winter.

You may ask, Pete, what about the El Nino you were talking about, the warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific, the blocking over Greenland? Yes, all valid points. Folks, this is where it gets really complicated. As I said earlier, even when things look perfect, it doesn’t always work out the way you want it to.

For one reason or another, these factors are not coming together as I envisioned. It could be the El Nino is stronger, which would strengthen the sub-tropical jet, bringing more rainstorms and mild air than snow. I did say we must be careful of this, if El Nino becomes too strong, the northern poplar jet (cold) may retreat and not be a factor this winter.

Another problem has been the lack of North Atlantic Blocking. This teleconnection has actually been very weak for nearly two years now. Up to this point, there has been very little high latitude blocking over Greenland. Computer models have been innacurately forecasting blocking to develop for months now.

Another issue is the very warm ocean water in the Atlantic this year. This is promoting a ridge of high pressure, which is keeping the storms more rain than snow along the I95 corridor.

So what am I thinking now? Well, looking over all my sources, I am thinking we are in for more of a variable winter this year, with large swings from one extreme to another. For the Boston area, I am expecting winter to get off to very slow start (no kidding!), with more rain than snow for many of the storms through much of January.

This does not mean we are going to get off with no winter! At some point, I do believe that many of the factors listed above will finally come together leading to one or possibly two major storms in February, or especially during March. I am thinking after a milder than normal January, winter will finally get its act together later in the season during February and March this year.

In fact, winter could also linger into the first part of April as well. In other words, it has been delayed. It may be one of those cases, slow to arrive, slow to leave.

So at this point, I am taking off the table the winter I had forecasted earlier. I no longer see record breaking snows occurring along I95 corridor this winter. Boston’s Logan Airport averages 44″ a season. This year, I am looking at between 40 and 50″ of snow to fall. In other words, close to average, or maybe a bit above. This is a significant reduction at my earlier forecast of 70 to 90.” This will hold true across much of coastal New England.

North of Boston, Portsmouth N.H. can expect similar results, with near average snows of between 50 and 60.” Further inland, towards Nashua and Manchester, normal amounts of snow can be expected, with between 60 and 70″ of snow.

Because of the proximity to the ocean, Boston’s south shore and especially the Cape, I am now expecting less than normal snow, with only 20 to 30″ likely. This may come in a couple big storms I am expecting later in the year.

If you are a skier, I do have some good news. With an active jet, and just enough cold air, it may snow quite a bit across northern New England this year, including many of the ski resorts. The one downside, is that there may be a couple nuclear meltdowns, so plan your trips carefully!

I guess it goes without saying, seeing how mild it has been in December, that this winter does not look as if it will be as cold as last year. The coldest period may be from February into March. It’s important to note that there will be more moisture this winter, bringing more periods of milder weather rather than bitter cold dry arctic weather of last winter.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to apologize for anyone who uses my blog to prepare for winter weather, whether it be for storm clean up, or heating sectors. I did say it wasn’t going to be as cold as last season, but my snowfall forecast was overzealous to say the least. Seasonal forecast is a challenging and changeable beast. I always do my best to bring everyone the best forecast with my abilities. As I said earlier, Mother Nature still holds most of the answers!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity and Christmas forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Not too wintery. Look for cloudy weather for the rest of today. You may see a few flurries or sprinkles. It will be chilly, with highs mainly in the 30’s.

Watch for a chance of some freezing drizzle tonight and first thing tomorrow morning, especially across the interior. Later tomorrow, look for a some showers moving in and continuing into tomorrow night. It will begin to warm up aith highs reaching the 40’s later in the day. I don’t anticipate any icy weather tomorrow night, as temperatures will remain above freezing.

Christmas Eve will feature a strong storm system moving to our west. When this happens, a strong southerly wind will transport warm weather throughout most of New England. Temperatures will be rising through the 50’s, possibly reaching 60 degrees by night! In addition, torential downpours will be traversing the region from south to north. Heavy rains will continue well into the night on Christams Eve, throughout much of the region.

Christmas day itself will feel more like Easter. Watch for any showers to be exiting the area during the morning. Morning temperatures will be ridiculous with many areas in the 60’s early. With a brisk west wind, these temperatures will cool later in the day to the 40’s, then 30’s at night.

Expect dry and mild weather to coninue for Friday and into Saturday, with highs mainly in the 40’s. Right now, there may be some kind of a storm on Sunday into Sunday night. The way things have been going, I would bet more rain than snow, or a mixture of the two. It does not look like anything serious at this point. If things change, I will update this blog on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, the next time we may have a chance at snow may not be until the new year.

Well that’s about it for now! I realize this post was a bit longer than normal, but these things needed to be said! In next week’s blog, I will have your New Year forecast! I will also be talking evaluating what we should be expecting for January, and a review at how December turned out. In the meantime, despite the tropical feel to Christmas this year, enjoy the holiday’s with friends and family. Let Mother Nature worry about how the weather is going to be!

Merry Christmas & Happy Hanukkah to all!

Pete

Solstice Nor’easter Likely…12/15/14

Good morning! After nearly a week of cloudy, rainy and snowy weather, it was nice to see the sun back out this past weekend! The same low pressure area that brought the soaking rain last Tuesday and Wednesday, then wet snow showers on Thursday, was still lingering off the coast on Saturday.

In fact, While the city was breaking out in sunshine, areas of  Boston’s north shore received a surprise snowfall Saturday morning, with a quick 1 to 3″ of accumulation. Then as the stubborn low pressure finally pushed out to see, clearing skies finally pushed into the region. Temperatures have been chilly, but certainly not winter like cold…not just yet.

Looking back on my forecast, I felt as if it worked out fairly well. I may have overestimated the snow in some of the ski resorts for New England. I say some because many areas in Vermont did pick up between 12 and 20″ of heavy wet snow. Ski resorts in New Hampshire had less due to a sudden surge of warmer air in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

With that being said, many areas are reporting this to be the best start to ski season in many, many years. Here in eastern Massachusetts, between 2 and 4″ of windswept rains was accurately forecasted.

With such a large amount of water falling all at once last week, many were asking me just how much snow this may of been had it been cold enough. This is a very interesting question, and I always get excited when thinking about if that would ever happen.

Well, one thing for sure, as far as the weather goes, I would never say never about anything! However, as with many things in life, we must put things into a much more realistic perspective. It’s not like it could never happen. Back on December 11-13, 1992 a severe nor’easter battered New England, lashing the area with up to 6″ of water. In some areas, that fell predominantly as snow!

Now, here’s is where it gets tricky. Very generally speaking, one inch of water, averages 10″ of of snow! However, there are lots of variabilty to this ratio. It’s a mixture of elements in the atmosphere to get this ratio.

First, when snowstorms arrive, there is generally less moisture available in the cold part of the storm. Furthermore, the average ratio may vary widely from one storm to another. The colder it is, the less moisture is likely to fall. If it’s very cold, the ratio may end up being 2 to 1, or sometimes even 3 to 1. Meaning 1″ of water could accumulate 20″ of snow or more. Snow which is less dense, or powdery tends to accumulate faster, also called “the fluff factor.”

When there is less arctic air to work with, and temperatures are marginal, snow is wetter, and is more dense. This type of snow may have a lower ratio, where 1″ of water, will only yiled 5″ of water logged wet snow! This type of snow is more difficult to shovel , and may also cause tree limbs to break, and power outages.

Getting back to that December 1992 storm, some higher elevated areas of central and western Massachusetts recieved up to 48″ of wet snow during that storm! Coastal areas flip flopped between rain and wet snow through much of storm.

Answering the question about the storm last week. Yes, there was a tremendous amount of precipitation in a short period of time. The storm was in a favorable spot for winter type storms. The difference was the warm ocean temperatures to our east  flooded the coastal plain and a good distance inland with warm air in the upper atmosphere, this changed any snow quickly to rain. Had it been later in the the year with colder temperatures, 20 to 30″ of snow would of been the outcome. Depending on the ratios, some could of seen even more!

Enough talk about the past, would of, could of, should of. Folks want to know what’s going to happen tis week, Christmas, and the upcoming winter! As talked about in last week’s blog, winter has already arrived across the interior of New England, and very slow to make its appearance along I95 coastal areas.

Next week, I will be updating my final winter forecast in conjunction with the winter solstice. Will I be making any changes? Am I going to back off from my prediction of a severe winter for New England? From what I seeing at this point, I would have to say no! Although, I must admit, I am a bit taken a back at some of the early season patterns so far, most especially along coastal areas.

The warmer temperatures along the coast is not in itself that unusual. However, what is catching my attention, is every storm that comes changes precipitation along the coast from snow to rain rather quickly. Obviously if this trend continues, it will begin to chop into the overall winter accumulations I had forecasted back in November.

Furthermore, computer models which have been touting bitter cold arctic weather to blast into New England by Christmas, seem to keep delaying this further back each time I look.

Right now, I can only say that I am going to hold my ground. I certainly don’t believe I am going to outsmart Mother Nature. However, I must say, I have been closely following the weather patterns of New England practically my whole life…very tricky business!!

I have seen this set up before in my life. Mother Nature lulls us, especially  folks living along I95 coastal areas, that a mild winter is on the way. Could this be the case, yes, it could turn out this way, and I can’t do one thing about it!

However, after reviewing the teleconnections I have been talking about all fall, I am not changing my forecast. I am a firm believer that patterns such as these bring generally mild, rainy weather up until we reach the winter solstice. At that point, the winter patterns will suddenly show up. Warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, El Nino, high latitude blocking, are just a few factors which I believe will bring a very memorable winter for much of New England.

Speaking of storms, I am following which I believe will be the first of many this winter, coming up for this weekend. A storm crashing into California today, will transfer its energy into the southern branch of the jet stream later this week.

As this storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico, a cold area of high pressure will build north of New England. This is a classic set up for a storm. As I reviewed the computer models thsi morning, many are taking this storm across the mid-atlantic, then sailing out to sea this weekend.

This is not my forecast. I believe this storm will be stronger, and further north than what is currently portrayed by the models. Because of this, I am forecasting a strong nor’easter to plaster the I 95 corridor this weekend. This storm will be accompanied by strong winds, heavy wet snow, and coastal flooding.

Folks who live down the Cape should also monitor this storm carefully, as they will be closer to the center, and may have a more of a direct hit. Obviously this is still close to a week away, so I will be updating this blog later in the week as conditions warrant. This may be the first of several storms to affect New England for Christmas week up until the New Year.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Weighted heavily for fairly mild tranquil weather during the week. Look for mainly sunny weather for the rest of today. It will be seasonable, with highs either side of 40 degrees.

Watch for mainly clear skies tonight, with lows in the 20’s and low 30’s. Tuesday will feature increasing clouds, as winds begin to come in off of the ocean, highs will mainly be in the lower 40’s. Watch for mainly dry weather Tuesday evening to give way to showers moving into the area after midnight. Lows will mainly be in the upper 30’s.

There may be a brief period of heavy rain early Wednesday, otherwise, expect cloudy weather most of the day. If we get any breaks of sun in the afternoon, temperatures may spike to 50 degrees.

Thursday will feature colder weather, with the chance of a few flurries, highs will be near 40 with a brisk wind. Expect the fair weather to continue into Saturday (first day of winter) with some sun followed by increasing clouds. Highs will be in the upper 30’s.

Right now, I am expecting a nor’easter to move into the region late Saturday night. A mixture of rain and snow should turn over to all snow as the storm intensifies. As the storm moves closer to southern New England, watch for wet snow to fall heavy at times along with gusty winds during Sunday. The storm should slowly pull away later Sunday night and early Monday. This is still very preliminary, and things may change. I will be updating this forecast later this week with possible accumulations and rain/snow lines.

As the National Weather Service out of Taunton, Ma. said this morning, “there is no clear favorite among these computer models…just alot of unknowns.”

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing my attention on the Christmas week and day forecast. I will also be talking about the chances of a White Christmas where you live across New England. In addition, I will have my final winter forecast update! In the meantime, enjoy the last week of tranquil autumn weather, and watch out for that “solstice nor’easter!”

Thanks for reading, folks!

Pete

Perception vs. Reality… 12/8/14

Hello! As promised, the roller coaster temperature ride experienced last week led many to the emergency room for motion sickness! Remember, a week ago temperatures soared into the mid 60’s, on the first day of December! The next day plummeted down into the 30’s, only to warm up again by mid-week, and chill off again by the end of the week. In addition, several bouts of precipitation brought mainly rain to coastal locations, but icy mixes and snow to the interior.

Saturday was the wettest day, with a heavy cold rain falling nearly all day in Boston, while a icy mix and snow fell up north and in the mountains. Ski resorts have gotten off to a tremendous start this year, with several snowfalls already! Sunday was mainly sunny, but a stiff north wind drove temperatures down once again, especially during the late afternoon.

For me, I am having a very relaxing weekend, as I spend time at my home away from home up here in the seacoast region of New Hampshire. I should just be done with it and move up here already! But that’s another story for another time! I am forever fascinated by the different climate zones aligned up here in New England. For instance, down in Boston, there has been alot of rain, but little snow to talk about so far this young winter season.

Here in New Hampshire, about 75 miles north of the city, many of these storms have been associated with wintery precipitation. Yesterday, while going out to find our Christmas tree, we took a beautiful drive into the country side. As we moved inland from the coast, the snow and ice began to pile up rather quickly.

Thus far, this has been the pattern this early winter season. While inland and northern areas have had several snowstorms already, southern and coastal regions have been shut out. Yes, there has been several coatings of wet snow, all of which has melted fairly quickly. Consequently, this has led to many people questioning the validity of  my winter forecast. To help clarify things up a bit, let me explain some misconceptions about what is going on.

First, no one, and I mean no one, really has all the right answers as to what is going to happen this winter. No one except Mother Nature, of course! It ‘s important to respect the climate, the atmosphere and the rapid changes that come along with it.

With that being said, I still feel very confident of my winter forecast which I published back on November 24th. From what I am seeing, I see no reason to back down from my forecast.  Remember, I reserved the right to update my winter forecast when the actual solstice arrives later on in the month on December 21st. However, at this point, I am seeing no reason why I will be changing the forecast from what I have.

Some people are jumping ship already claiming this winter is a bust. First, winter has not even officially arrived yet. If you speak with folks who live in northern New England, they will tell you it’s been winter for about a month already. You would like to think it’s all Currier & Ives, and sleigh bells ringing from Thanksgiving to Christmas. However, here along the I95 corridor, closer to the ocean, this is the exception rather than the rule.

As I have mentioned before, the Atlantic Ocean modifies the climate quite a bit here in southern and eastern New England. It’s this same warm ocean that keeps the snows away in early winter, only to fuel major nor’easters later in the winter to produce the ” blockbusters.”

In addition, Mother Nature seems to follow a pattern in weak El Nino winters like these. After doing years of studying and research, I have learned that the real winter patterns won’t start revealing themselves until the actual winter solstice arrives. It’s at this point, that the Boston area and eastern Massachusetts will begin to feel the affects of the winter that I am expecting.  Right now, Mother Nature is playing with us, making many believe that a tame, mild winter is on the way. Of course, I  may be wrong, and this still may be the outcome.

As I mentioned earlier, many in northern New England would tell you winter has already arrived. Looking at the past weather patterns, I would agree with this statement. We have been in a winter type pattern since about the middle of November. As the season matures, and the oceans begin to further cool, you will see these storms we are having get stronger, due to the increasing baroclinic zone (difference in temperature between the land and ocean). When this happens, storms which were once rain and slush along the I95, suddenly become snowy & cold.

Adding to this normal seasonal shift, we have many other factors coming together this winter to make it a memorable one for many here in New England. First, unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, much like last year, will develop a massive ridge of high pressure in western Canada. This will cut off mild Pacific air from flooding the country from coast to coast. Second, a weal El Nino has developed. I have been keeping a close eye on this all fall, and it nows seems to have finally kicked in. Surges of heavy rains have already slammed into central and southern California.

This type of pattern will only intensify the deeper we go into the season. Because of El Nino, we will have a much more active sub-tropical jet stream this winter. This sub-tropical jet (moisture), will phase with the northern polar jet (cold), resulting in prolific snowfall across much of New England.

This was not the case last winter, with only the northern polar jet stream being dominant, sending frequent powdery light snowfalls across the region. In addition, I am expecting increased high latitude blocking (Greenland Block) this winter compared to last. This will help lock in the cold air along the east coast, slow storms down, and possibly resulting in one, or maybe even two blockbuster storms this winter.

This pattern is already happening. A strong winter type storm is going to hit New England tomorrow. Again, this is going to bring a cold wind-swept rain along I95. Later in December, a storm like this would likely bring feet of snow to areas closer to the coast. As it is, ski resorts are going to cash in on a bonanza storm, with many resorts accumulating between 1 and 2 feet of snow. If conditions remain just right, some areas could have even more, as the storm lingers throughout the week.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Not severely cold, but inclement, raw weather for the majority of the week.  Look for a cloudy and cold day for the rest of your Monday. It will have the look and feel of an impending winter storm.  To make it a bit festive, there will be periods of snow flurries and light snow from time to time, especially if you live along the coast. This is not associated with the storm. This is due to the cold air circulating around the high pressure area to our northeast, blowing over the relatively warm ocean. It’s similar to the lake effect in Buffalo, to a lesser degree.

As the winds begin to freshen off of the ocean tonight, watch for areas of light snow to continue, and then begin to mix with freezing drizzle, and then change to plain drizzle by morning as the coast warms up. Further inland, this freezing drizzle may lead to icy walkways and roads, so be aware of this if you live north and west of Rt 128.

Tuesday will be an eventful day. A strong low pressure will be developing close to N.Y. city tomorrow. This will send a slug of windswept soaking rains through the Boston area, likely beginning after the commute, and continuing much of the day. There will be localized urban street flooding, so be prepared for some slow traveling tomorrow.

In addition, east northeast gales will whip the coastline into a frenzy, with winds reaching up to 50 M.P.H. Coastal residents should be vigilant of splash over and high waves crashing in. At this time, I am not expecting major coastal flooding, but spashover and vulnerable areas may experience some minor flooding.

Further inland, the cold air may be slow to erode. If you live between 128 and 495, you may experience a initial mix of wet snow and sleet. This may result in some slippery travel. Later, this too will turn to a wind driven rain. Beyond there, things become very dicey. Wet snow may accumulate, and become very problematic. Depending on your elevation, you may experience heavy wet snow, rain, or a combination of the above. Some elevated areas of western Massachusetts and Vermont may have quite a storm, with over a foot of accumulation, with many downed trees and powerlines.

Same holds true, for the deep interior of New Hampshire, especially elevated areas, where the snow may be measured in feet. As you move closer to the coast, amounts will dwindle to near zero, as even here the ocean will make it too warm to snow.

As we move deeper into the week, the weather patterns continue to be unsettled. Depending on where this storm stalls, many may experience a mixture of wet snow & rain showers. At this point, it appears the Boston area will escape any significant snowfall.

Some computer models are hinting at another intensifying storm spinning up from the large vortex that will be stuck over us this week. If this happens, another slug of rain or perhaps wet snow will arrive sometime on Saturday. Needless to say, I will update this forecast if I see conditions warrant. Conditions may improve on Sunday, with temperatures moderating into the 40’s.

Well that’s about it for now! I have a feeling we will be devloping a close weather relationship this winter! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing in on the possibilty of any snow leading up to Christmas. I will also be talking about a major pattern shift that I am beginning to see as we head towards Christmas. In the meantime, watch the perception the weather turn into reality of winter sooner rather than later! Be safe, everyone!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Roller Coaster Temperature Ride! 12/1/14

Good morning! I hope everyone had a peaceful & warm Thanksgiving! It was anything but warm for thousands of people in New Hampshire, who had their power knocked out as a result of the early season winter storm. The pre Thanksgiving storm spared the Boston area heavy accumulations, but this was not the case in areas further inland. Heavy wet snow fell all day, snapping trees and downing power lines across much of New Hampshire. The early season storm was a travelers nightmare, but a boon for local ski resorts! After, bitter cold air for this time of the year greeted holiday shoppers to remind people that winter is here!

Speaking of winter, today happens to be the first day of meteorological winter! Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons up into four quarters, with December, January and February making up the winter season. This practice makes for cleaner record and data keeping. Of course, we know Mother Nature has her own timetable. She goes by the astronomical date, which is on December 22nd.

Overall, the forecast for the storm worked out pretty well. I overestimated the snowfall forecast for the Boston area. Folks who were looking for a good snowstorm in Boston were disappointed, as the rain/snow line seemed to oscilate through the city the better part of the day. Honestly, it was quite a difficult forecast. At the time of the forecast, computer models were depicting a colder, snowier solution.

However, when push came to shove, the warmer ocean temperatures flooded the mid layers of the atmosphere along the coastal plain, changing the snow to rain. These warm ocean temperatures saved the coastal plain this go around. Later in the winter, this will fuel nor’easters, which will batter the coast with heavy snows.

As mentioned earlier, this was not the case once outside of Rt 128 and I95. Up at my sister’s house in coastal New Hampshire, up to 6″ of heavy wet snow clung to trees, making it feel more like Christmas time rather than Thanksgiving! Even after milder temperatures on Sunday, snow cover persists this morning. This is partly due to the low sun angle this time of the year.

Over the weekend, I also enjoyed getting together with family and friends at a post Thanksgiving get together. A good friend of my sister was kind enough to chat with me about her observations of the storm, and other weather related topics. Her observations from the Manchester, N.H. area was of widespread power outages, and many tree branches snapping under the weight of nearly one foot of heavy wet snow! It was certainly a Thanksgiving which will not soon be forgotten by many!

Many were also asking me just how unusual a storm like this was.  Actually, I would categorize it as unusual, but not unprecidented. There have been, and will be, major November storms in New England over the years. What has been unusual is the persistant cold and frequent snowfalls of this November. In fact, some places up in Maine have recorded their snowiest November’s on record! Even at Boston’s Logan Airport, we have surpassed the average snow for November. If you a regular reader, this should not of come as a big surprise. A stormy November was forecasted, with the possibility of early season snows hitting much of New England.

Every year is different. November is certainly a transition month from autumn to winter. Some years, November can be mild and tranquil. Other years, such as this year, it can be decidedly winter-like, with frequent snow and cold. This should be a good warm up for what is to come.

So what can we expect December to be like? Now that we are in December, is winter going to come roaring in? Some years, winter starts up right on December 1st. This will not be the case this year. In fact, today will feel more like April 1st, with temperatures in the 50’s in many places! However, don’t let this fool you! A cold front will slice through New England later today and introduce a much colder  air mass for tomorrow. This will be the start of a up and down, roller coaster ride in temperatures for the remainder of the week. I will have the forecast for the rest of your week shortly.

I foresee a very active December shaping up this year for New England. The month will turn progressively colder and stormier, especially after the first 10 days. Before then, you can expect wild temperature fluctuations, with quick bouts of rain and some snow. I don’t see anything major at this point at least through December 10th. However, this is a highly energetic, volatile weather pattern setting up, and rapid changes are likely in the coming days.

Last week, I released my 2014-15 winter forecast. One thing that I mentioned, and am monitoring very closely, is the development of El Nino. South American fisherman off the Pacific coast named it El Nino, or baby jesus, because the phenominon typically begins to show itself around Christmas time. El Nino is when warmer than normal ocean temperatures occur in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. El Nino’s come in different strengths.

This year, I am expecting a weak El Nino to play a major role in our weather patterns this winter. If El Nino becomes too strong, the sub tropical jet stream becomes dominant, resulting in frequent warm rainstorms from California to New England. However, a weaker El Nino produces a much different weather pattern.

When we have a weak El Nino, the northern jet stream, which supplies the cold air, phases with the sub tropical jet stream, which supplies the moisture. When these two jet streams meet, the result can be powerful winter storms. This year, I am expecting two things to play out. First, California is going to have a much wetter winter than last year. Second, New England better prepare for possibly a record breaking snow season!

As mentioned earlier, look for a fairly uneventful first part of December. However, as we head closer to the winter solstice, expect El Nino to start influencing our weather patterns. Look for this December to feature above normal snowfall in much of New England. Typically, Boston averages about 8″ of snow. I am expecting at least double this amount, if not more this year. In addition, bitter cold blasts of air later in the month will make this a December to remember.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10 on the winter severity scale. With all of the temperature fluctuations, it will just about even itself off. Expect a mixture of sun and clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will be on the mild side, with temperatures in the 40’s over the snow covered interior, to mid 50’s in south and east where there is no snow cover. Later today, watch for a gusty breeze to develop as a cold front sweeps across New England. This front will switch winds from the southwest into the northwest as we head towards evening. Look for much colder weather to pour into New England overnight, with lows dropping back into the 20’s.

Tuesday will feature temperatures which will be nearly 20 degrees colder than today. Watch for sunshine to fade behind increasing clouds. Later in the day, you may begin to see some light snow or flurries break out across the region. Look for areas of light snow or mixed precipitation tomorrow night across much of the region. Along the coast, temperatures should warm up so that it will be mainly just wet when you wake up Wednesday morning. However, it may continue to be icy north and west of the city well into the morning. Later on, even these areas may warm up enough to change to just rain showers. This will not be a major storm, just a warm front pushing through New England. Speaking of warm, southern and eastern areas may warm back up to near 50 later in the day on Wednesday.

Expect another charge of cold air to blast into New England Wednesday night into Thursday. Highs on Thursday may once again be only in the mid 30’s inland, to low  40’s along the coast. A stiff north wind will make it feel colder than that.

Later on Friday, we may do the same process all over again, as cold high pressure anchors to our north and precipitation approaches from the south. Right now, I am not expecting anything major. However, with the cold high to our north, a overunning precipitation event may take place.

Typically, coastal areas warm up enough to change any wintery precipitation over to rain. However, inland areas once again may be dealing with a bit of a wintery mix later on Friday and to start off the weekend. By inland areas, I am talking north and west of I495, areas of central Massachusetts and interior New Hampshire. Look for temperatures to modify somewhat once again for Sunday, with highs mainly in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. I will update this forecast if conditions warrant later on in the week.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will analyzing the overall pattern, and letting you know when we may expect another winter storm to strike the area. I will also give you an idea of what our chances are of having a White Christmas this year. In the meantime, fasten your seatbelt and get ready for a wild ride. If my prognostications are correct for this winter, it may be quite a long haul indeed.

Thanks for reading!

Pete

TURKEY EVE TRAVEL NIGHTMARE…11/24/14

Hi folks. In case you clicked on this looking for the winter forecast, it’s already been posted! I broke the post up into two pieces as there is just too much going on this week. This post is dedicated to the impending winter storm that will arrive on the busiest travel day of the year.

They say timing is everything in life. Unfortunately, the timing of the regions first significant snowstorm of the year, can’t be any worse.

If you have plans to travel, as many of us do, anywhere along the east coast on Wednesday into Thanksgiving, expect major delays and possible cancellations. With that being said, this will NOT be a blockbuster paralyzing blizzard. However, because of the sheer volume of travelers, any type of inclement weather can cause major delays at airports and highways.

Here’s the deal. After a very warm day, a cold front is slowly pushing through New England this evening. If this were to continue to move off the coast, everyhting would be fine. However, this front is going to stall, and linger just off the coast. At the same time, a storm is going to develop near Florida tomorrow.

This storm is going to slowly move north traversing the eastern seaboard. While this is going on, colder air will begin to penetrate New England from Canada. This storm will have plenty of moisture with it, as it begins to intensify off the coast.

As it intensifies, this storm will turn into a formidable nor’easter Wednesday evening. The height of the storm will occur late afternoon, and especially overnight Wednesday. Things will begin to taper off Thursday morning, but lingering snow showers may persist along the coast until around noontime. With all that in mind, here is your detailed forecast.

Expect mostly cloudy weather early tonight, with a chance of a few lingering showers. Later, it will clear, and turn cooler, but not turning cold, with lows in the 40’s.

Watch for a quiet day tomorrow, with mainly sunny weather. It will not be as warm as today, but it won’t be cold. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50’s.

Tuesday night will feature increasing clouds and slightly colder weather, with lows dropping into the 30’s. I am not expecting any precipitation overnight.

Wednesday will turn progressively stormy and colder. If you live or have plans to travel anywhere north and west of Interstate 95, expect a mixture of wet snow and rain to develop around noontime. This includes areas just north and west of New York City, Providence, and Boston. In this region, watch for this mixture to change over to all snow during the afternoon with slippery travel developing.

It will snow heavily overnight Wednesday in this area, with 6 to 12″ of snow falling by early Thursday. By the way, this includes areas north of Boston in southern New Hampshire and up into Maine as well, especially if you live 5 miles or more away from the ocean.

If you live inside of Rt 128, Boston’s north shore, in the city of Boston itself, and the south shore of Boston, to the east of I95, extending down towards the Cape, expect rain to develop around midday Wednesday. Later in the day, as winds pick up from the northeast, the rain may begin to mix with snow.

As you travel away from the ocean towards I95, it may change to heavy wet snow towards evening. As winds turn north overnight, expect any mixed precipitation to turn over to wet snow even down to the coast.

When the storm ends I am expecting 3″ in downtown Boston and along the water, building upwards to 6″ of snow across inland areas towards West Roxbury, Needham, and Newton areas. Expect 1 to 3″ along the south shore, and 0 to 1″ down the Cape.

When we wake up Thursday morning, it will be looking more like Christmas rather than Thanksgiving! Watch for lingering snow showers early on Thanksgiving Day. Later in the day, skies may try to brighten, especially across the south. The further north and east you are, towards Portland, Maine snow may linger well into the afternoon. It will be cold, with highs mainly in the 30’s.

Right now, Friday and Saturday look dry and on the cold side, highs will mainly be in the 30’s. It looks dry and cold on Small Business Saturday, so come on in for a new refrigerator, range, washer or dishwasher!

There may be a small system with some light snow showers or rain showers on Sunday, but I am not expecting anything major at this point.

Needless to say, I will be updating this forecast if I see any changes tomorrow. Otherwise, despite the weather, wishing everyone a Happy & Safe Thanksgiving!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

WINTER 2014-15: BLAST FROM THE PAST!! 11/24/14

Hello! Hard to believe, after last week’s blast of winter weather, temperatures have soared into the low 60’s today! We did have some rain earlier this morning, but now, it’s just turned into a windy and warm afternoon.

This is coming off a weekend that started out very cold early Saturday morning, only to turn into a very pleasant Sunday, with a touch of Indian Summer?

Yes, it was a beautiful Sunday afternoon, with people out walking, jogging, and just enjoying the late November sun. I saw a couple friends post pictures from Gillette Stadium at the Patriots game. If you were lucky enough to be at the Patriots game yesterday, you certainly picked a winner of a day!

So what’s it going to be this winter? The arctic chill that swept across New England last week, or the balmy breezes of the past couple days? This is the million dollar question.

First, I would like to say that the science of weather and meteorology continues to fascinate me on a daily basis. Outlets such as the National Weather Service, WeatherBell Analytics, Accuweather, and all of the public & private weather outlets all do their best at educating me and bring us the best forecast possible.

Not only do I respect the amount of knowledge of professional and amateur meteorologists in the field, but I aslo respect Mother Nature and the power she has to change our lives in an instant. The events in Buffalo last week demonstrates that we our at her peril at any given time.

There is no doubt the technology to study the weather has improved dramatically over the years. High powered computer models have been invaluable in helping meteorologists save lives when an impending storm threatens. With all that being said, the atmosphere is still a mysterious, highly variable force, with only a higher power having the last say.

As the science evolves, and becomes more technical, I like to keep things as simple as possible. Believe me, this is difficult to do in such a technical field! To develop my forecasts, I study a broad range of disciplines, including past year analogs, pattern recognition, long range computer models, and expert technical disussions. In conjunction with all of that, I also have developed 17 natural signs of Mother Nature that never seems to disappoint.

So what’s in store for us this winter? Like I mentioned earlier, I try and keep things as simple as possible. There are a few factors that I am keying on this winter to formulate my forecast.

First, I look at the ocean temperatures for the Atlantic, but more importantly the Pacific Ocean. Second, the developing El Nino this winter. Third, if we will have any high latitude blocking this winter to lock in the cold and help turn quick hitting nor’easters, to possibly a blockbuster storm or two?

I look at the Pacific Ocean, because this is where most of our weather patterns derive from. Like last year, unusually warm water is sloshed up the Pacific northwest coast and British Columbia. This promotes blocking ridges of high pressure extending well into western Canada. This type of pattern cuts off mild Pacific air to flood across the country giving us a warm winter.

I also look into the Pacific Ocean to see if we are in an El Nino or La Nina. El Nino is associated with warmer water in the Pacific. La Nina is the cold water phase. La Nina’s typically bring mild winter’s to New England, with stormy and cold weather to the Pacific northwest. Depending on many factors, if El Nino is too strong, it can flood the nation with abnormally warm weather, resulting in mainly rainstorms in New England.

However, when El Nino is not that strong, it can make for a very volatile weather pattern for New England. When El Nino develops, the southern sub-tropical branch of the jet stream becomes more active, bringing moisture laden storm systems across the southern tier of the United States.

If the pattern sets up right, these storms can come up the east coast as nor’easters. If the northern jet stream (cold air) phases with the southern jet stream (moisture), prolific snowfalls can occur. If any high latitude blocking develops, a historic storm may be the result.

Keep in mind, I will be updating this forecast when the winter solstice arrives on December 22nd. This is not a cop out, I just want to give you the best forecast that I can heading into when the true patterns set up for the winter.

Putting all of this together, this is what I am expecting for New England this winter. From what I am seeing at this point, I believe that much of New England is in for a severe winter this year. I know last year was tough, but I am actually expecting more snow this winter than we had last year.

In many areas, winter has already started, with well below normal temperatures and several snowfalls. The combination of heavy snowfalls, and bitter cold, will make this a winter to remember for years to come.

The difference from last year to this year? This year, we have a weak El Nino. This will be enough to activate the southern sub tropical jet stream and send moisture laden storms from California to New England. I believe these storms will mix with cold air from Canada, resulting in frequent heavy snowfalls.

At some point, I am also expecting more high latitude blocking this winter, most likely in late Jauary or February. It’s during this period, I believe a blockbuster storm will hit the the Boston area with near record amounts of snow.

First things first, after a early season snowstorm on Wednesday, a relaxation to the pattern, would lead one to believe that winter is not coming for the first two weeks of December. Don’t be fooled! Winter will come back with a vengeance, from mid-December to the New Year. I am also expecting a White Christmas in many areas this year!

Thereafter, another mild period may greet us for the first two weeks of January, only to be followed by what I believe will be the big storm, and severe winter weather right up until the spring equinox.

Right now, I am expecting between 70 and 90 inches of snow in Boston this year. I do realize this is much higher than many other outlets, but after reviewing all of my data, I have to go with my gut feeling. This number can be as low as 60″ if there is alot of mixing, but could go as high as 100″ if we get a blockbuster storm or two.

In my title, I say “a blast from the past,” because I believe this winter will remind many of us at some of the legendary winter’s we had in the 60’s and 70’s in Boston…including 1978!

How about other parts of New England? I believe ski country will mostly have another banner year! I am a little concerned at it not being as bitterly cold as it was last winter, which may result in a bit of a less consistant season this year. There is a chance of a meltdown or two during the course of the winter.

However, several large nor’easters will not disappoint skiers, and will deliver plenty of powder. Because of a more active southern jet stream, I believe more snow can be expected for southern and eastern areas.

Much like the Boston area, areas in southeast New Hampshire and much of coastal Maine are in for a heavy winter, with snowfall ranging from 80 to 100″ in coastal New Hampshire, to over 100″ in coastal Maine. Although not as much, plenty of snow will also fall in Vermont and western areas of New Hampshire.

Warm ocean temperatures may keep snow accumulations a bit lower south of Boston and on Cape Cod. However, I am expecting a rough winter down there as well, with many storms of both rain and snow. Even with the mixing, many areas should end up with above normal snowfall of between 30 and 50″ on the Cape, and between 50 and 70″ on the south shore.

So to review, I am expecting a winter with above to much above normal snowfall across much of New England. It may not be as cold as it was last winter, but that’s because of the increased moisture I am expecting.

I hope everyone found this winter forecast informative! If you have any questions about this forecast or anything about the weather, please feel free to contact me on Facebook, Twitter @hrapplianceman, or e-mail Peter.Pappas12@gmail.com!

Because of the impending winter storm on Wednesday, I will be posting a seperate forecast shortly for this important travel day. Please check in for these critical details!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Break Out The Winter Coats!! 11/17/14

Hello! Where is the time going? Thanksgiving is rapidly approaching, and before you know it, we will be ringing in yet another new year! Before then, we have quite a bit of weather to get through for the rest of 2014!

As forecasted, rain changed to snow last Friday morning across much of eastern Massachusetts. No, it wasn’t a big storm, but it was just enough snow to capture some of Mother Nature’s scenery at its best.

Beacause of the warm October, peak foliage was delayed this year in Boston, truly not arriving until the first week of November this year. This gave us a rare opportunity to capture some incredible pictures of winter mixing with peak fall foliage.

Typically, these scenes are reserved for mountainous terrain of New England. Of course, with higher elevation, snow arrives earlier in the season. This can make a perfect opportunity to take some stunning pictures of snow capped mountains along with brilliant colors of fall.

If you woke up early enough on Friday, you would of witnessed this scene right here in the outskirts of Boston! After about an inch of snowfall, the storm rapidly moved out to sea. With the brilliant sun, cobalt blue skies, the stage was set. I don’t ever recall capturing the combination of fire red trees, cobalt blue skies, and brilliant white snow right here in my own back yard!

My sister also posted a great picture, showing a wintery scene early in the morning, along side a picturesque scene of autumn colors at its best during the afternoon.

I’m sure this is said nearly every year, but I can’t recall having a more colorful fall in my memory. I forecasted a good foliage season earlier in September, but the colors this year were vivid, especially the popular red maples.

If you live around the Boston area, you live in a unique climate zone. It’s a more temperate zone, where we are influnced by many different types of weather on any given day. We are far enough north to at times, experience severe winter weather. However, because of our location near the Atlantic Ocean, this type of weather typically does not last too long.

Fall foliage is particularly unique. You would think because of our latitude, the leaves would change quickly, and be over before Halloween. However, this is usually not the case. Because of the warm ocean to our east, fall tends to be slow and lingers longer than one would think. This means autumn colors can last for a good 6 to even 8 weeks some years!

This year was no exception, beautiful color started at the beginning of October, and extended into the first two weeks of November this year! If you live in the interior of New England, or up north, you know this season usually lasts for 4 or 5 weeks at most.

Well, fall foliage seaon is officially over this year here in Boston. As forecasted, the areas first freeze occurred last Friday night, when most areas dropped into the 20’s. In Boston, this freeze was a week late than normal, but certainly fell within the average time of this happening.

Now that we experienced our first freeze, what’s next? Last week I mentioned how we may go from the first freeze, straight into the deep freeze! Is this still possible? Well, if you havn’t been following the news as of late, much of the country is enduring one of the coldest November’s in some 38 years! In some cases, record early season snow has also accomanied this bitter chill.

What about here in New England? We too, will be sharing in some of this bitter cold. After a soaking rain today, a strong cold front will blast off the coast tonight, dragging in with it the coldest air of the season! In fact, much of this week will end up feeling more like January, rather than November!

This begs the question, is this a preview for our upcoming winter? As I have mentioned before in the past, what happens in November the winter will remember. What’s in store for this winter? You will have to wait one more week before my official forecast will be published!

As I did in the summer, I broke up my forecast into 2 updates. The first one will be next week, for the period of the meteorological winter of December, February and March.

Because things can change, and I want to keep you updated on the best forecast possible, I will have another update on my forecast around the winter solstice (December 22nd), for the period of astronomical winter, through the end of March.

I’m still reviewing many of my 17 sign secret formula. From what I am seeing so far, I can only tell everyone at this point to brace yourselves for a long haul this winter.

Temperature and precipitation profiles for November are all pointing to a winter with above normal amounts of precipitation. If we get the right mix of the colder northern polar jet stream with the moist southern sub-tropical jet stream, prolific amounts of snow will be the end result. Some parts of Maine have already had 2 or 3 significant snow events…and we’re still more than a week away from Thanksgiving!

Alot of this hinges whether we can activate the weak El Nino in the central Pacific Ocean this winter. This is really tricky business, and is one reason I will be updating my forecast around the winter solstice.

El Nino, or baby Jesus, can be tricky to forecast just how strong or weak it will be. Also, it doesn’t show it’s true colors many times until around Christmas time. Meteorologists know there is an El Nino. The question is the intensity and influence on our weather this winter. One thing for sure, I will be studying the factors of El Nino and many other pieces of the puzzle to give you the best forecast that I can next week!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will begin to reverse the scale this week, so the lower the number, the more severe the winter weather will be for the week. In the summer, the higher the number on the 1 to 10 scale, the nicer the weather! So this week, the winter weather scale is a 3 out of 10. Quite cold for so early in the season!

Look for a typical November day today. From Boston north and west, it will be a rainy and cold day, with highs mainly in the 30’s and 40’s. From just south of Boston towards the Cape, look for increasing southerly winds, and warmer temperatures, with highs getting to near 60!

A strong cold front will move through the region tonight with gusty winds and heavy downpurs up until around midnight tonight. Thereafter, winds will shift into the west, and colder air will flow into the area. After a warm evening, temperatures will fall into the 30’s and 40’s by daybreak.

Tuesday will feature a mixture of sun and clouds, it will be windy and colder! High temperatures will hold in the 30’s and lower 40’s. You will have to deal with a windchill, with real feel temperatures feeling like the 20’s! It will be even colder Tuesday night, with clear skies, and lows in the teens and 20’s.

Watch for continued cold and windy weather for Wednesday. It will remain on the dry side, with highs mainly in the 30’s. This is some 20 degrees below normal for the date. Expect clear and cold weather Wednsday night with lows in the teens and 20’s.

Thursday will see the cold slightly ease, as winds relax, there won’t be as much as a bite to the air. High temperatures will still remain in the mid to upper 30’s. Later on in the day, there is a chance of a few snow showers or even possibly a brief snow squall whitening the ground in some communities. After that, expect some of the coldest air of the week to pour into the region. Low temperatures will fall into the teens and lower 20’s.

Don’t expect much of a recovery on Friday, as high temperatures will struggle to reach 32 degrees! Friday night will feature mid-winter cold temperatures, with lows mainly in the teens.

Right now, I am expecting a moderating trend to commence this weekend. Look for sunny weather to continue on Saturday with highs near 40. Look for some increasing clouds on Sunday, with highs back up to near 50.

If you are wondering what next week’s weather will be, I am expecting a surge of warmer weather the first part of next week. I will also be tracking a strong cold front crossing the country. This cold front will be very active, with possibly a significant storm around Wednesday or on Thanksgiving Day itself. Too early to tell if this will be rain or snow at this point.

However, with colder air pushing into the northeast, there may be some wintery type of precipitation to be dealt with. I will be updating this forecast next Monday…I’m sure there will be changes.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your 2014-15 New England winter forecast! I will aslo have your updated Thanksgiving Day holiday forecast. In the meantime, get ready for a winter preview this week, then my winter forecast next week!

Thanks for reading!

Pete