SNOWVEMBER?? 11/10/14

Good morning! All in all, it was a pleasant November weekend across much of New England. Saturday started out on the crisp side, with many inland communities waking up with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. Sunday was a beautiful fall day, with sunshine mixed with some high clouds, and temperatures which actually were a few degrees above normal for the date. With light winds, it actually almost felt warm!

Interestingly enough, Boston’s Logan Airport still has not recorded an official freeze yet. In fact, even where I live in the West Roxbury part of the city, I don’t believe I have fallen to 32 degrees yet. Logan’s average date for it’s first 32 degree low temperature is typically around November 7th, so the anomaly is not that significant yet.

However, in the outlying areas, you would expect a frost or freeze around October 25th. So we are running a couple weeks behind schedule in that department.

In fact, I believe this is true along many coastal communities, not only here in Boston, but also along the north shore of Boston, even up into coastal New Hampshire! I got a report from my trusty weather observer (my sister!) in coastal New Hampshire of a first frost last night. Many other coastal areas did receive their first frost last night, including here in West Roxbury. However, you can still receive a frost, without the air temperature actually falling to 32. The location where the temperature is officially recorded about 4 ft off the ground may still be at 34 or 35 degrees. Whereas the temperature right at ground level may cool to 32 degrees, thus creating frost.

So does this mean a mild winter is on the way? The short answer to that question is, no! True, I have said in the past that first freezes is a very good indicator at how severe the following winter may be. Recording when the season’s first freeze occurs is one of my 17 signs I use to help me determine my winter forecast.

First freezes are important in the cycle of Mother Nature. It is a demarcation of the end of the growing season, and the start of dormant winter season. Every year is different, some freezes are earlier than others. As a rule of thumb, the later the freeze, the milder the winter will be.

What if it’s within a week of the average date? Well, I suppose this is subject to a weatherman’s interpretation. I would think within a week is not going to make a huge difference, as it would still be within the “average” date.

However, I have seen first freezes as late as early December in Boston. Needless to say, winter got off to a very slow start that year, and never really got going at all.

One thing I have noticed over all the years I have been following the climate here in Boston, is that the quicker it gets out of the gate, the worse the winter is.

So, is a freeze coming? Well, after reviewing all of the weather charts this morning, I not only believe a freeze is coming later this week, but we may actually go from having our first freeze, right into the deep freeze shortly there after! So yes, winter is coming this year, and it’s going to be starting sooner rather than later!

Does this mean a severe winter is on the way? My official winter forecast will be published two week’s from today! However, I have maintained my preliminary thoughts since about August, that this could be an epic winter for us this year.

I feel that this is especially true for eastern New England, especially here in eastern Massachusetts. I am still studying all the details very closely in helping me determine whether to pull the trigger on this, or to go a more conservative route.

The one huge wild card I am carefully watching is if the El Nino I was expecting begins to develop. If a weak El Nino does develop (some say it already has), it will energize the sub-tropical jet stream. This not only will bring welcome rain and snow to California, but it would also bring moisture laden storms towards the east coast & New England. If there is enough cold air available, heavy snowstorms may develop. If El Nino does not develop, the northern polar jet stream will remain dominant, resulting in colder, quick moving powdery snowfalls, much like last winter.

Even with all of super computers, research by some of the greatest scientists in the world, Mother Nature still is the ultimate ruler.

As recent as last week, super computer models were still insisting that a warmer than normal November was on the way for much of the country. A sudden shift in a super typhoon in the Pacific Ocean has caused atmospheric chaos. What first seemed like a tranquil November weather pattern across much of the country, now has much more serious winter look to it, perhaps straight through Thanksgiving week!

As we head towards Thanksgiving, I believe we will have several opportunities for snowfall! With abnormally cold air oozing into New England, and several storms riding up along the coast, we do stand the chance for wintery precipitation here in New England heading up to Thanksgiving. In fact, there could be a sizable storm on Thanksgiving week itself.

With all that being said, this does not mean all of these storms are going to be all snow. Let’s not forget that it’s still only November. I say cold air oozing into New England, because that is exactly what it does this time of the year. The reason is beacause of the still very warm Atlantic Ocean to our east. This modifies the severity of early winter cold and snow here in coastal New England. There is a much higher chance of heavier snowfalls and cold weather up in northern New England and in the mountains than here in coastal areas.

Remember, Boston only averages about 1.5″ of snow in November. Many years it does not snow at all in November. However, some years, a fairly sizable snowfall can occur, on the order of 5 to 10″ or so. Could this be the year for a decent snowstorm to occur in Boston? If the set up is just right, I say yes! I believe a snowstorm will occur sometime before Thanksgiving this year! For those who love cold and snow, this is a very encouraging pattern as we head into winter. As I have mentioned before, patterns during November are often repeated during the following winter.

Now for your weekly fall outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10…changeable. Expect mild weather for the rest of today and into tomorrow. Watch for a mixture of sun and clouds with high temperatures betweeen 55 and 60! Not bad for November! Overnight will be milder than recent nights, with fair weather, and lows mainly in the 40’s.

Wednesday will feature mostly cloudy weather, with highs in the lower 50’s. There could be a few sprinkles or light showers during the afternoon as a cold front moves through. It will turn colder at night, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s regionwide.

Thursday will be colder, with a mixture of sun and clouds, highs will be in the lower 40’s. Look for even colder weather to move in Thursday night, with lows falling into the 20’s regionwide, perhaps holding near 30 along the immediate coast. Later at night, a disturbance may kick off some light snow. This will not be a big storm, however, don’t be surprised if it’s snowing lightly when you wake up Friday morning!

As for Friday itself, watch for some light snow during the morning, with perhaps a dusting of accumulation. Later, some sun may break through the clouds, it will be cold, with highs only in the very low 40’s. It wil be cold at night with lows in the 20’s.

Expect a cold weekend, with temperatures more like mid-December than mid-November. Saturday should be mainly sunny with highs only in the upper 30’s to maybe 40. Sunday will feature similar weather, with possibly increasing clouds during the afternoon.

A coastal storm could move up the coast later Sunday night into Monday. With cold air in place, a wintery mix of snow, sleet and rain may develop and continue into Monday. At this point, the coast would most likely change to rain, while interior areas (north and west of I495), may continue with a wintery mix.

This is still early, a slight shift to the east would keep the colder air closer to the coast, and would create a more winter type storm closer to Boston. I will update you on this situation If I feel conditions warrant.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing my winter forecast in more detail. I will also have another sneak peek into the Thanksgiving holiday travel weather. In the meantime, enjoy the next two days. After that, as my dad used to say, “the party’s over!”

Thank you to veterans who have served and are serving our country to bring us our freedom!! Happy Veterans Day!!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

EARLY WINTER…BUT!! 11/3/14

Hello! It was quite a weekend across New England. After a chilly Halloween, a two part nor’easter brought a cold, windswept soaking rain on Saturday to open up November. After a brief break Saturday night, an even stronger storm delivered near strong winds, coastal flooding, pelting rain, and even some heavy snow on Sunday!

In fact, areas of northern Maine saw quite a early season snowstorm, with anywhere from 6 to 20″ accumulating! As you can imagine, this type of accumulation toppled records for the date in many areas. Even close to Boston, rain changed to wet snow for a time. This should not have come as any surprise, as it was forecasted in my post from last Monday.

You would think a winter storm such as this could mean a severe winter is ahead. This still may be true for some parts of New England, but there are still many questions to be answered for us here in Boston.

First, there are still many areas along the coast that still have not seen their first freeze. For us here in Boston, this is not too unusual, as the average date for the first freeze is November 7th, so we still have a few days before this date arrives.

Second, I find it not a good sign, if you like lots of snow, to have any type of snowfall before you even have a freeze. Now, with milder weather on the way, we may have to wait at least another week before we experience a freeze here in Boston. This is important. The longer it goes after the average date of a freeze, the less snow can be expected the following winter.

Not having a freeze also extends autumn deeper into November than what normally would be expected. I recall a very warm autumn a few years ago where many of the leaves on the trees hung on until Thanksgiving Day! Even this fall, it has been warmer than normal. Looking around this morning, there are many trees that have brilliant color on them. Alongside them, there are some hearty trees that are still fully green!

I saw an interesting observation posted by the National Weather Service this morning saying that Tallahassee, Florida has recorded it’s first freeze before Boston! Yes, the low temperature in Tallahassee, Fl. was 30 degrees, compared to Boston at 34. This is a sign that cold air is plunging deep to the south first, then being modified by the time it makes it to Boston.

It was also interesting to note, that higher elevations of Tennesee, South Carolina and other areas of the deep south recorded it’s largest early season snowfall, with some mountain areas receiving up to 2 ft of snow!!

All this is good news for folks who want to save money on heating bills, and who doesn’t! Anytime the temperatures stay above 32 degrees, not as much fuel is used to heat homes and buildings. As we move deeper into November, the forecast for the winter will become more clear to me. However, looking at what I am seeing now, I believe this winter will not be as bitter cold as it was last winter, at least here in Boston.

Of course, this is all preliminary, as I won’t have all the parameters of my winter forecast ready until three weeks from today…so stay tuned!

So why no snowstorm in Boston? As I have mentioned before, winter takes longer to arrive in the fall, and longer to leave in the spring, here in eastern Massachusetts. The reason is the Atlantic Ocean to our east. The warm waters of the summer takes longer to cool off in the fall, and slower to warm up in the spring after a cold winter, due to a phenominon called latent heating and cooling.

So how unusual was it to see snow falling yesterday at this time of the year? Well, considering Halloween was just Friday, I would say it was a bit unusual. With all the leaves still on the trees, it just isn’t a scene you don’t see at this time of the year. Further inland and especially to the north, it’s not only not unusual, it’s expected. With that being said, having a foot of snow just after Halloween is early, even for places up in northern Maine!

After a warm and very wet October, what can we expect for our weather as we move through the month of November? Typically, high temperatures start off in the lower 50’s at the beginning of the month, only to cool to the lower 40’s by months end. Low temperatures start out in the lower 40’s, cooling to near freezing by months end.

November can be a gloomy month, with Boston receiving nearly 4″ of precipitation. I say precipitation, because not all of that falls as liquid. As the temperatures cool, snow may fall even in the city. Boston averages about 1.5″ of snow during November.

Many times this will fall in one snowstorm once every 5 or 6 years or so. Further inland and up north even more snow accumulates. Some years, November can be very wintery, with several snowfalls occurring. Other November’s are tranquil, waiting for the season to change for real winter to hit.

After several years of tranquil November weather, I am expecting a much more active month of weather this year. Watch for large swings in temperatures, with times of winter type cold, and surges of mild temperatures.

Overall, I am expecting temperatures to average out very close to normal this year. I am also expecting greater than normal amounts of precipitation. With some cold air in place, many communities will see an early season snowfall this month.

Up north, where it’s colder, many ski resorts may be able to open early with some limited terrain before Thanksgiving. Watch for another early season storm around Thanksgiving to herald in the winter season.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Look for stellar weather for the rest of today, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures struggling to reach the lower 50’s.

Expect mainly clear skies tonight, with some clouds increasing late. It will be chilly, with lows dropping into the 20’s in deeper valleys, to the 30’s and 40’s in urban areas and along the coast.

Tuesday will feature more clouds today, along with some sun. It will be milder, with highs in the mid to upper 60’s. The milder weather will continue at night with lows manly in the 40’s. Wednesday will be the mildest day of the week, with some early sun, followed by increasing clouds late in the day.

It will feel more like September, with highs in the upper 60’s. Watch for a storm to begin to approach us from the west at night, with rain beginning towards dawn. Lows will mainly be in the 40’s.

Thursday looks rainy and cooler, with highs in the lower 50’s. This rain may continue as showers Thursday night into Friday. High temperatures should still be in the lower 50’s.

Right now, a cold front should sweep this storm system out to sea early Saturday, with clearing and cooler weather expected, highs will be in the 40’s.

Saturday night should be cold, with freezes even across coastal sections, lows in the 20’s and lower 30’s. Sunday should feature a mixture of sun and clouds with highs in the mid 40’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will focus a bit more on the details pertaining to my New England winter forecast. I will also update you if I see anymore early winter storms on the way! In the meantime, whether it comes early or late, winter will be here before you know it!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Mid-Week Thrill…Then Weekend Chill! 10/27/14

Good Morning! Overall, it turned out to be a very nice fall weekend across New England. Saturday was definitely the pick of the weekend, with deep blue skies, and temperatures warming into the mid 60’s. It was cooler Sunday, but only back to seasonable levels, which is in the upper 50’s for this time of the year. Most would agree, it was a dramatic improvement over the stormy weather we had for the majority of last week!

Speaking of last week, I would say that was quite a storm that walloped the region, especially here in eastern New England. If you were thinking if that was a nor’easter, the answer is yes! It was most definitely a nor’easter, a text book one at that!

It was an impressive storm, with winds up to 60 M.P.H., toppling trees and knocking out power to thousands. Torrential downpours dumped 4 to 6″ of rain, along with thunder and lightning to boot! To add insult to injury, the storm stalled south of New England, not completely leaving eastern New England until Friday night!

A very good friend of mine who lives in Hull, Ma. right on Nantasket Beach, was texting me on the scene observations. He was reporting severe conditions, with storm force northeast winds of up to 60 M.P.H., sheets of rain, and a very angry Atlantic Ocean across the street from his condo.

I told him the only saving grace with this storm was that we were very fortunate not to have astronomical high tides this week. Had it been that time of the year with higher than normal tides, we would of been dealing with some major coastal flooding along the coast. As it was, many roads along the coast were flooded with sea water as waves crashed over walls at the time of high tide.

A few people were asking me if nor’easters only happen during the winter. Actually, these storms can happen year round here in New England. However, they are more common from October through April. This is because of the seasonal clash in temperatures, which fuels these storms.

Also, not all nor’easters have snow in them, as was the case last week. Often times, when these storms occur during the months of October and April, there isn’t enough cold air to support snow. Of course, living in New England, we all know there are exceptions to this rule!

Some folks were also asking me if we can expect a storm like this again coming up this winter? This is a very good question, but is also a very difficult question to answer from now. As you know, I am keeping a very close eye on weather patterns during the fall to help me forecast the upcoming winter.

Should a storm of this caliber were to occur this winter, with sufficient amount of cold air, an epic storm would be the result. Keep in mind, cold air holds less moisture, so it would be very unlikely that 4 to 6″ of precipitation would fall in the cold sector. On average, 1″ of rain equates to approximately 10″ of snow.

This scale varies greatly in each storm, depending upon the temperature profile in the atmosphere. Temperatures closer to 32 degrees brings more of a wet snow, which may stick to all the trees, but not accumulate so quickly.

However, a storm with temperatures around 28 degrees brings a more powdery snow, which is less dense, and can accumulate rapidly, sometimes bringing a 2 to 1 ratio. So you can see, even with a storm that has 2 to 3″ of precipitation, can accumulate alot of snow!

As I have mentioned in previous posts, I don’t believe the patterns in October have much of a bearing on what we can expect in winter. There’s no doubt there is a connection, but I rely my information more from the month of November.

So far, October has been a warm, wet month here in Boston. With that being said, there are a few things I look for in October to help give me clues for the upcoming winter. One of which happened last week in the storm.

An old wives tale says if you hear thunder in October, a warm January is coming. Well, there certainly was quite a bit of thunder and lightning last Wednesday night during the storm. Another friend of mine was quick to point that out to me in a Facebook post. Thanks for the great observation!

In my winter forecast, I may , or may not use this old wives tale to determine my outlook for January 2015. Alot depends on what happens next month.

As we move into November, temperature profiles at Boston’s Logan Airport becomes a critical factor on whether a snowy winter is on the way. If temperatures average near, or even slightly below average for November, studies have shown there is a greater chance of above normal snow for the upcoming winter…sometimes alot more. Average snowfall at Logan Airport is 44.” When temperatures are 2 degrees or more above average, winters tend to have less snow than normal.

With it being the last week of October, this will be the last fall foliage report of the season. Last week’s storm really did a number on the areas foliage.

The combination of high winds, heavy rain, and cloudy skies have temporarily dulled the colors. With sunnier weather, expect the leaves to rapidly change this week with one more burst of color by the time we get to Halloween. More color will extend into November, especially south of the city. Peak foliage is now just outside of Rt 128 and is about to move through the city this week.

Before we get to November, expect a roller coaster ride with temperatures this week! After a chilly start this week, a mid-week warm up will send folks into Indian Summer fever! Don’t get used to this weather! By the time Halloween arrives on Friday, we will be bundling the kids up like the old days, with temperatures falling into the 40’s! Please see all the details in my forecast next!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily for the first part of this week. For the rest of today, look for beautiful fall weather, with mostly sunny, cobalt blue skies and temperatures warming into the lower 60’s. Expect clear skies tonight, with lows mainly in the 30’s and 40’s.

Tuesday will see the continuation of the nice weather with sunny skies and temperatures even a little warmer than today, with highs in the mid 60’s. Tuesday night will be fair and on the mild side, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week. Expect sunshine mixing with some clouds during the day. If we do get enough sunshine, temperatures may make a run at 70! There also is a chance of a few light showers late in the afternoon or at night. A wash out is not anticipated at this point. After the showers move through, it will turn cooler Wednesday night under clearing skies, lows will fall back into the 30’s and 40’s.

Watch for cooler weather on Thursday, with mainly sunny skies and highs in the 50’s. It will certainly be chilly Thursday night with lows mainly in the 30’s, under mainly clear skies.

On Friday, Happy Halloween! Expect spooky clouds hanging around, with a chilling breeze reminding us that winter is not far away. It should be mainly dry with highs mainly in the upper 40’s. Come trick or treat time, it will turn colder, with temperatures falling through the lower 40’s to upper 30’s late.

As we flip the calender to November 1st, look for colder weather for your Saturday. A strong and energetic storm will be moving across New England during the day. The wild card is if this system moves aouth of our region, and spawns a low pressure system off the coast. If this scenerio happens, there will be a period of rain developing.

I know it’s early in the year, but as colder weather plunges into New England, there is the possibilty that this rain changes to wet snow from north to south. I don’t believe there will be any accumulation here in Boston, but areas to the north and west of Rt.128 may actually have their first accumulating snow of the season!

The computer models are all over the place with this system. U.S. generated models have most of this energy across northern New England, where many areas could possibly see a full fledged snowstorm Saturday, especially in the mountains.

European models are further south with this energy, which could bring snow closer to the Boston. This is the model I am siding with for now. I will update this blog if see any major changes during the week. Also don’t forget to fall back early Sunday morning…turn your clocks back 1 hour!

Whatever happens on Saturday will move out of the area by early Sunday, leaving New England with more of a winter type day. It will be windy, with sun mixed with clouds, high temperatures will mainly be in the 30’s and lower 40’s…Brrrr!!! If you are going to the Patriots game @ 4:30, bundle up!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review the month of October, and have a preview of what we can expect for November. I will aslo begin to discuss in more detail our upcoming winter forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the treat Mother Nature delivers on Wednesday, it could turn into a trick come this weekend!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Mid-week Soaker…10/20/14

Hello! Once again, it was a weekend which featured a split decision in the weather department! Saturday saw balmy breezes, with temperatures touching 70 in many communities. Sunday saw an abrupt change with mostly cloudy skies, temperatures stuggling into the low 50’s, and a cold wind to boot! In fact, if you were up in the northern mountains, you may have actually witnessed some snow flurries dusting the ground!

I took a lovely walk with a friend through the Public Gardens in Boston yesterday. There certainly was a nip to the air, with a brisk wind and cloudy skies. With the chill of autumn taking its toll, it was nice to see hardy roses hanging adding brilliant color to the landscape!

We are a little more than halfway through the meteorological fall season. So far, I would say it has averaged on the dry and milder side. Yes, there have been some chilly days, but for the most part, it has averaged above normal. In addition, because of the abnormally dry September, precipitation has been below normal, despite wetter patterns in October.

So it’s basically been warmer & drier than normal fall up to this point. Can we expect these mild conditions to persist for the rest of the fall? Well, looking at the global patterns, long range computer guidance and trends, I would say things are about to change around here. In fact, I could see some significant winter weather coming to New England, starting as soon as November this year!

Changes start as soon as this week. A fairly significant coastal storm will be developing off our coast. Believe it or not, this storm is actually a by-product of a recurving typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean about a week ago.

How? Meteorologists and amateur weather people such as myself love to look at a tool called teleconnections. This is when we look at all the weather patterns across the earth, and connect them into a pattern happening in our region.

For instance, when a typhoon recurves in the western Pacific Ocean, it actually pumps a ridge up up towards Alaska. Think of it like shaking a garden hose, with the ridges and troughs that occur as you shake it. As the ridge builds in western North America, a trough develops in the east.

About a week a ago a typhoon recurved in the western Pacific Ocean. A trough will now develop across the east, as well as a storm off our coast. As we move deeper into the fall and early winter, these teleconnections become increasingly more important.

Speaking of typhoons and hurricanes, a late season hurricane named Gonzalo was a direct hit on the island of Bermuda last Friday. Though a strong category 3 storm, it appears as if the island managed fairly well despite the 120 M.P.H. wind gusts reported. This island is not a third world country. They have the infrastrure and resources to whether such storms when they hit.

Last week, I also was talking about a old wives tale about hearing thunder in October means a warm January is on the way. Once again, a thunderstorm looked to be a lock last Thursday evening in Boston. However, as has been the case throughout the fall, the line of thunderstorm’s just fizzled as they approached Boston. I am now convinced Mother Nature has a bigger plan for us coming up for this winter.

As I look over the current teleconnections across the globe, I am becoming more confident of a fierce winter ahead for New England. The combination of a weak El Nino developing, a much warmer than normal pool of water off the Pacific northwest coast, and increased Greenland Blocking gives this winter a chance to be epic here in New England. My official winter forecast will be published the third week in November.

With all that being said, I was very surprised when NOAA released their winter forecast last week. As good as they are, with all of the resources they have, technology and experienced meteorologists, they once again seem to be missing the mark.

Last year, NOAA missed the boat with their forecast by calling for a warmer than normal winter across most of the country. We all know how this worked out. For this year, they are once again forecasting a warm winter across much of the country, including here in New England. It’s almost as if they aren’t even looking at the same things that other organizations are seeing.

To me, there definitely seems to be a warm bias with this organization. Who knows, though? They are the experts, and they certainly may know something that I don’t know for this upcoming winter…time will tell.

I hope some of you were able to get out there and enjoy the fall foliage this past weekend. For this week, foliage will be peaking very close to Boston, just outside of Rt 128. Unfortunately, heavy rain and some wind may strip some of the leaves and dull the colors this week. Come next week, peak colors will slowly push through the city of Boston, then head south and east from there. If the weather holds out, there will be another beautiful burst of colors next week right here in your own backyard!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Watch for a continuation of beautiful weather this afternoon. Look for sunny skies, light winds, with temperatures mainly in the upper 50’s.

Tonight will feature some increasing clouds. It will not be a cold as last night, with lows mainly in the 40’s. Tuesday may start with some sunny breaks, but clouds will thicken during the day. It will be on the cool side with highs mainly in the upper 50’s. Later, showers will develop and make for a wet evening commute.

Expect rain and some fog to continue Tuesday night with lows near 50. Wednesday promises to be a rainy and chilly day, with highs only in the lower 50’s. Some of the rain may fall heavily at times throughout the day.

Watch for occassional rain, mist and fog to continue Wednesday night and into Thursday. It will be a little milder on Thursday, with highs possibly reaching the lower 60’s. Similar weather may continue Thursday night.

As the storm slowly lifts north of our latitude, expect improving weather on Friday. After some early showers, skies may even brighten during the afternoon. Temperatures will respond with the sun, and warm into the low to mid 60’s.

Right now, Saturday looks to be another beautiful fall day, with sunshine and mild temperatures with highs near 70! A cold front will move through the region Saturday night. This will set us up with another brisk, chilly fall day on Sunday, with partly sunny skies and highs in the 50’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking more about my thoughts for the upcoming winter. I will also have your weekly fall forecast, including your Halloween forecast! In the meantime, get ready for just rain this week. A month from now we could be talking snow!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Happy Columbus Day! 10/13/14

Hello! Happy Columbus Day to all! Yes, it was another weekend which featured a distinct split decision with the weather. After a couple warm days last week, Saturday turned decidedly colder, and on the rainy side.

However, like last weekend, Mother Nature abruptly changed the scene for Sunday. With 100% of the possible sunshine, crisp temperatures, it was a day that makes fall weather in New England famous!

Traditionally, Columbus Day weekend is a good weekend take a drive through the countryside. This is when foliage is generally peaking in New England. This year was no exception. In fact, foliage is peaking exactly when it should be this year, if not slightly ahead of schedule. You don’t have to travel too far north and west of Boston to run into beautiful peak fall colors. This is true in most of Massachusetts, north and west of I 495, most of southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire and southern Maine.

Next weekend, peak colors will move closer to Boston, between Rt.128 and 495. If you can’t take a drive, no worries, peak fall colors will be moving through Boston the week of Halloween. Even before peak arrives, the Boston area is enjoying many trees that are turning beautiful colors.

Last week, I talked about hearing thunder in October can mean a warm January on the way. It looked like a lock that we were going to hear thunder in Boston last Wednesday. As it has been all summer, the thunderstorms fizzled as they approached Boston. Another strong system will be moving through New England on Thursday.

Ahead of the storm, warm and muggy weather will be firmly entrenched across the region. Once again, there is at least a 50% chance of a strong thunderstorm or two sweeping across the region. However, it’s possible that a southeasterly marine flow off the ocean fizzles these storms as well. We will just have to see the set up as these storms approach us. If these storms don’t materialize, I do believe it’s a sign Mother Nature is sending us that a bitterly cold January is on the way. Again, just my opinion.

Speaking of this storm, if we don’t get thunder, we certainly are in line for a period of heavy downpours. After a parched September, this will be the third heavy precipitation event to move through eastern Massachusetts.

This means two things. Number one, all of this precipitation is certainly alleviating the moderate drought conditions across the area. Number two, I believe this change is a sign of what is to come this winter.

I believe this winter will be a wetter one here in eastern Massachusetts. Long range computer models are hinting that this wetter pattern may continue into November, then the rest of this upcoming winter.

The big question is whether cold enough air will mix in with all this moisture to deliver a winter with a ton of snow. I will be following these, and many other trends very carefully over the next several weeks.

One thing I am keeping a very close eye on is the development of El Nino this winter. El Nino is a naturally occurring phenominon in the Pacific ocean. El Nino is the warming of ocean waters off the the South American coast, and typically begins to develop around Christmas. El Nino’s come in different strengths and locations.

The stronger the El Nino is just off the South American coast, the warmer the winter is for New England. However, if the El Nino is weaker and is more centrally based in the Pacific Ocean, winter tends to be much colder and snowier here in Boston. A weaker El Nino activates a moisture rich sub tropical jet stream. If the polar jet is strong enough, the two can mix together, delivering strong nor’easters to our region.

If the El Nino becomes too strong, it overpowers the polar jet. This type of scenerio typically brings warm, wet winters to New England. So far, El Nino has had a difficult time developing. Most computer models are now forecasting a weak El Nino at best for the upcoming winter. This could man a colder winter for New England.

This could also be bad news for southern California, which is suffering through an exceptional drought. In this part of the country, the stronger the El Nino, the more precipitation falls. Sometimes too much falls all at once, resulting in catastrophic mudslides and avalanches of snow.

At this point, I am expecting a much wetter winter season this year for southern California. I believe the El Nino will be strong enough to activate the sub-tropical jet stream into California, easing the severe drought conditions.

Another natural phenominon I look for is all of the volcanic activity occurring across the earth. So far, there has been no catastrophic explosions as of late. There are many that came close. In fact, the recent explosion in Japan actually killed 30 people. The Icelandic volcano was threatening to explode, but has since simmered down. This is important. Volcanoes occur naturally on earth. Only the ones that explode ash way up into the atmosphere can temporarily cool the earth, and change our climate. After a 20 year quiet period, volcanoes once again are becoming more active globally. I will be keeping a close eye on this volcanic activity as we move closer to winter.

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect mostly cloudy and seasonable temperatures for the rest of your holiday, high temperatures will mainly be in the lower 60’s. Tonight will feature a southerly wind. This means it will be milder than recent nights. It also means more low clouds and areas of fog across the region.

Expect a murky start to your Tuesday. Later, skies may tend to brighten, with temperatures warming to near 70. Look for a repeat of weather for Tuesday night and Wednesday, with more low clouds, fog, and even some drizzle possible.

Later on Wednesday, if skies brighten, temperatures may warm into the lower to mid 70’s, and it will turn muggy to boot! Watch for Thursday to turn stormy. Look for strong southerly winds to transport very mild and muggy weather into the region. As the day progresses, look for heavy showers and downpours to traverse the region.

If you are planning on going to the Patriots game Thursday night, expect it to be warm, windy and wet! With heavy downpours moving through. As mentioned above, there may even be a strong thunderstorm or two!

On Friday, skies may partially clear, as it turns somewhat cooler, with highs back in the 60’s. At this point, next weekend turn into yet another split decision. Saturday may feature showers and milder weather again, only to be followed be clearing skies, windy and cooler temperatures for Sunday, with highs only in the 50’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing more about my thoughts for the upcoming winter. I will also have another fall foliage report.

If you ever have any questions about the weather, please feel free to contact me at info@hrappliance.com, or follow me on twitter @hrapplianceman. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your holiday & fall foliage, the next scenic view here in New England will be the color white!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

More Rain, Thunder in October! 10/6/14

Hello! Hope everyone had a great weekend! It was a weekend which featured a split decision. Saturday turned out foggy, drizzly followed by heavy downpours. Sunday was a classic fall day, with brilliant sunshine, and comfortable temperatures. Chilly weather settled in over the region last night, with many towns dropping into the 30’s!

Wow, was last week ugly! I knew the weather was going downhill, but I grossly underestimated the extent of how nasty it was going to get. To be fair, I did rate the week a 5 out of 10. However, I did not expect that amount of rain that fell. It also turned decidedly cooler and more damp.

This was especially true here in eastern Massachusetts and over the Cape. On the plus bright side, we needed the rain, and Mother Nature delivered. Despite what the computer models were printing out, a good 2 to 5 inches drenched the region.

The week certainly didn’t get off to a good start last Monday night with that atrocious performance by the Patriots. They responded last night with a victory that we have become acustomed to over the years. Happy to see Patriot Nation still in tact this morning!

As mentioned above, the weather turned decidedly cooler last week, as if something turned the switch “off” to summer. In fact, the better part of the whole week saw temperatures holding in the 50’s! This was a far cry from last Sunday’s high of 87 degrees! It was quite a shock to many folks! Many people were saying that it felt like the seasons turned overnight.

To be honest, this is what basically happened. Every year is different. Some years, Indian Summer like weather lingers well into November. Other years see snow in October. Nothing lasts forever, and for this year, the end of summer came on September 29th. It was a sudden, traumatic end for some. Still, others who know New England weather, were not surprised by the change.

I went to several events this weekend, where many folks were asking me what my thoughts were for the upcoming winter. At this point, I am still thinking a cold and very snowy winter. However, there are some things I am keeping a close eye on that may try to change my train of thought.

Now that we’re into October, there are several signs I begin to look for to come up with the best forecast that I can for the upcoming winter. Among one of them is to listen for thunder in October. According to old folklore, when one hears thunder in October, a warm January will follow. So far, there has been no thunder in October. It came close on Saturday, with several heavy downpours moving through the area under humid conditions.

There will be more opportunities for thunder this October. In fact, a strong system moving into New England tomorrow will provide enough instability in the atmosphere, to set off some thunder. Keep in mind, there is no scientific evidence for this theory to be true. However, I have been following this old wives tale for years, and I have found it to be true! For instance, last October there was no thunder observed in Boston. We remember how last January turned out, nearly 3 degrees below average! Also, keep in mind, if we do have thunder in October, this does not mean there will be no wintery weather in January.

A few years back there was quite a bit of thunder in October. The following January was warm for the first two thirds of the month. The last third of the month featured heavy snow and colder temperatures. Overall, the month ended up warmer and snowier than normal. Again, there is no scientific proof for this theory, but I have my own beliefs on why this works. I believe, in patterns such as this, there is a cold pool of air sitting west of New England. This puts us in a warmer, southwesterly air flow. As cold fronts try to push into this air mass, the air is lifted, becoming more unstable, creating thunderstorms.

For some reason, this pattern seems to repeat itself in January, resulting in warmer than normal temperatures. I believe thunder is an indication of heat in the atmosphere. When the pattern repeats itself during the winter, warmer than normal temperatures is the end result. Just my opinion.

What about fog in October? Folklore says, the thicker the fog in October, the deeper the snowpack in the winter. So far, we have had several days with fog, with a couple nights with dense fog especially along the coast. I do believe there is definitely some truth to this theory. Fog is an indication of moisture in the air. Later in the winter, if moisture laden storms mix with enough cold air, heavy snowfalls could be the outcome.

What about temperatures? As a rule, I do not consider temperatures during the months of September or October to influence the winter forecast for New England. In fact, the warmer it is during these two months the better for a snowier winter. This type of patterns seem to set up a colder winter, the same place where it was warm in the early part of fall. Remember, if a accumulating snow falls before the first freeze, you can expect less than normal amout of snow for the upcoming season.

Later in the fall, especially during November, temperatures play a critical role as to what kind of winter is to follow. If temperatures average more than 2 degrees warmer than normal during November, there is a 90% chance of less than normal amount of snow for the upcoming winter. However, if temperatures come in closer to average, there is greater likelyhood of a winter that features more snow than usual. The closer the temperature averages near neutral, or especially just slightly below average, the worse the winter. This is especially true for observations taken at Boston’s Logan Airport. Temperatures that average more than 2 degrees below average can signal a colder, drier winter on the way, with not necessarily alot of snow.

Now for your fall foliage report. Checking the latest report from social media, there are a couple things that stick out. First, the colors this year have been brilliant. Second, they are changing more quickly than normal. If you are planning to take a trip this Columbus Day weekend, you don’t have to travel too far to run into great color.

Take any country road northwest, west, or even southwest of the city, and you will see some beautiful color. Travel a little further outside of I495, towards southern New Hampshire, southern Vermont, or the Berkshires in Massachusetts, and peak fall colors will be greeting you. Here in eastern New England, the ocean moderates the climate, resulting in leaves that change more slowly. Even here, splashes of brilliant color precedes the peak color wave moving through the last week of October this year.

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Because of a major computer snafu this morning, this post is being written very late today. In fact, I could see that it was a beautiful day today, but no sense in giving a forecast, so I will move right into tonight. Expect clouds to be on the increase tonight. It will not be as cold as late night, with lows mainly in the 40’s and 50’s.

Tuesday will turn unsettled. Expect showers to move into the region from west to east. With it being more humid, there is also the chance of a few thunderstorms. Highs will be near 70. There may be a lull, but expect more showers and possibly more thunder overnight Tuesday and even into Wednesday morning.

Thereafter, skies may become sunny during Wednesday afternoon with a brisk wind. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 60’s. Watch for cooler and drier weather at night with lows in the 30’s to lower 40’s. Expect sunny and cool weather for Thursday with highs between 55 and 60 degrees. It will be chilly Thursday night, with lows mainly in the 30’s and 40’s again.

Expect increasing clouds on Friday. There may be a period of rain later in the day continuing at night. It still will be on the cool side, with highs mainly near 60.

Right now, I am fairly optimistic for a mainly dry and chilly Columbus Day weekend on the way. After some early showers, look for mainly sunny weather for Saturday and Sunday, with highs mainly in the 50’s to lower 60’s. Watch for a very chilly weather overnight Saturday, with widespread frost possible. Lows will mainly be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s across New England. It will hold in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s in urban areas.

Looking ahead to Columbus Day, I am expecting increasing clouds ahead of the next sysytem. It should remain dry, but I can not rule out some late day showers. It will remain on the coolish side, with highs mainly in the 50’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about a possible storm computer models have been hinting at. I will also have your new fall foliage forecast. I also want to discuss recent volcanic activity, and how this may influence our weather. In the meantime, listen for thunder the next couple days, then hope for a warm January!!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

A September To Remember…9/29/14

Good Morning! I’m sure I have used this title before in the past, but I think it’s worth a repeat. I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy what undoubtedly was the best weather weekend of the entire year!

Folks, I have said this several times already…it just doesn’t get any better than this! With mostly sunny, cobalt blue skies, light winds, no humidity to speak of, it’s what makes September weather the best month of the year here in New England!

As an added bonus, temperatures were very summerlike, with highs in the low 80’s on Saturday, and mid to upper 80’s on Sunday! I even saw many people posting that they were going to the beach yesterday. From mountain top to seashore, it was a legendary weekend gift from Mother Nature!

In my post today, I would like to discuss three topics. The first is about the growing drought in our area. The second is the sudden explosion of vivid fall colors throughout many areas of New England. And the third topic is the general weather patterns, and what we should be expecting, as we move into October.

Over the weekend, NOAA made an anouncement that came as no shock to me. Much of eastern Massachusetts, including the city of Boston, has been upgraded to moderate drought status. We are in the midst of one of the driest September’s on record, with many communities not even mustering up an inch of rain this month. In fact, atop of Blue Hill, it may go down as the driest September on record. Lakes, ponds and reservoirs are beginning to show the stress.

Looking back, we have been in a decidedly dry weather pattern since about the spring of 2013. Yes, there has been some wet periods, but overall, precipitation has been lacking.

You may say, Pete, what about last winter, and all of that snow? We did have above average amounts of snow, however, the devil is in the details. Last winter, the polar jet stream was the dominant jet.

This supplied New Engalnd with frequent fast moving, powdery snowfalls. Becuase the origin was from the North Pole, these snowfalls contained very little moisture. With the change of seasons, the polar jet retreated back into Canada, leaving New England high and dry since. Every month this year, except for July has had less than the average amounts of precipitation.

With the Boston area now running between 6 and 8 inches below average for the year, this is beginning to raise some concerns. By no means, are we even remotely close to dreadful drought in California. They are in the midst of an exceptional drought. One that has not been witnessed in modern times. However, a drought is a drought, and a moderate drought is serious. With all that being said, I do have my thoughts why it happens.

Of course, there is no written answer as to why droughts happen. Scientificaly, we can see how it happens. I believe it’s all a natural cycle from Mother Nature. Droughts occur naturally to kill disease, control animal population, and keep erath’s cycle in balance. When it’s time to rain, it will come on Mother Nature’s timetable, not ours.

Personally, I have not seen it this dry in the Boston area since the fall of 1995. If you don’t remember that year, let me briefly remind you what happened. That year, Boston’s water deficit was double of what it is this year. Many communities were running a water deficit of between 10 and 15″ going into the winter. They say Mother Nature likes to balance things. Well that winter, Boston was bombarded with the all time snowiest winter in recorded history! I am not saying this is going to happen again, but something to keep in mind as we move deeper into the fall season!

Temporarily moving on from drought, to spectacular fall foliage! There have been many reports and pictures coming in via social media of just incredible fall foliage this year. I mentioned this a couple weeks ago that this may be shaping up to be a good year. I backed off a bit last week, concerned about the early frosts and persistant dry weather.

Well, I am happy to report that the colors have been even more vivid than what anybody expected! In addition, the foliage is changing rapidly this year. It seems to be running a good two weeks ahead of schedule. Some vivid color is even showing up here around the Boston area! With just enough rain, and the chilly mid-month temperatures, this seemed to have been the right combination in getting the trees to change their leaves more quickly this year.

This is especially true for the mountains of northern New England. This means that if you planned a romantic trip to the White Mountains over the Columbus Day weekend, the show will already be over!

As the color wave sinks south, it will slow, due to the warming influence of the Atlantic Ocean. If you live close to Boston, you will enjoy nearly a full month of beautiful fall colors during October!

I also have my theory about rapidly changing fall foliage. There may be a scientific reason behind it, but I believe the trees are changing so fast to prepare themselves for a long winter ahead. I remember a similar scenerio unfolding this time last year, and we remember how that turned out!

My official winter forecast will not be published until about the third week of November. However, I make no secret with letting folks know my feelings for this upcoming winter. There are still many things to iron out, but I believe we have one heck of a winter on the way for us here in New England.

The combination of a weak El Nino, warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, and possible North Atlantic blocking at times, foretells to me a severe winter may be ahead.

Before that, look for October to feature the fluctuations with temperatures swinging from mild to even warm at times, to periods of chilly to even cold weather as we move deeper into the month. I am also expecting more precipitation events in October, so expect the drought to ease somewhat. At this point, I am not expecting October snow here in Boston…but it may be close.

However, it’s not out of the question for a early season snowfall to occur in the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. As we move into November, I am expecting an early start to winter this year, with stormy conditions of rain and snow…even in the Boston area!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I am rating this week a 5 out of 10. Who knows when we will see another 10 out of 10 like last week? Look for alot of clouds along with some breaks of sun. It will be warm at first, with temperatures rising into the 70’s. Later, as a cold front pushes through, look for winds to turn northeast, chilling coastal areas back into the lowers 60’s. Tonight will feature lots of low clouds, some patchy drizzle and fog. It will be damp, but not cold, with lows in the 50’s.

For the period of Tuesday through Thursday, expect cooler weather, with gusty northeast winds, highs will mainly be in the 60’s and lows in the 50’s. In addition, there will be areas of light showers, drizzle, and some patchy fog. This is true especially here in eastern Massachusetts and over the Cape & Islands. No washout is anticipated at this time. It’s a tricky situation, as there’s always a chance of some brightening skies here and there in patterns like this.

At this point, Friday looks to be the best day of the week. The atmosphere looks to dry out and there may even be some sun, with highs near 70.

Looking ahead to this weekend, expect our first legit chance of rain in weeks to come through on Saturday. This will not be a big storm, however, there is a good chance of some showers moving through the area sometime during Saturday afternoon. This front should sweep off the coast early Sunday, leaving behind a cooler, drier day, with blustery winds. Highs should mainly be in the 60’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about recent volcano activity around the world. I will also have a new detailed fall foliage report. As well as more clues about our upcoming winter! In the meantime, it was a September to remember. Now, will the nice weather be over in October?

**Happy Birthday to my niece, Olivia! (Thursday)**

Thanks for reading!

Pete

It’s Fall! Winter Clues…More Summer! 9/22/14

Good morning to all! The weather is starting to get extreme! Many heard furnaces clicking on, with frost in many of the suburbs Friday night. Yesterday saw a reversal, sending folks scrambling to find their shorts and t-shirts once again! As they say in show business, you aint seen nothing yet!

Today may be the first day of autumn here in the Northern Hemisphere. But I can assure you, by the end of this week, summer fever will be the talk of the town!

So far, it’s been a very strange September, weatherwise. The month started off on the hot side, with three 90 degree days. Recently, very chilly weather had many people wondering if this was winter starting already! In fact, many suburban areas experienced their first frost of the season early Saturday morning!

This type of cold weather is premature for our area. These types of temperatures are normally found up in northern New England for the middle of September. So yes, if you thought it was too early for this type of cold weather, you are correct. Technically, it was still summer after all!

These frosty areas did not include the city of Boston. This is due to the fact that the city retains heat from the day in a phenominon called the “urban heat island effect.” This means with clear skies, and light winds, the city can be as much as 15 to 20 degrees warmer than rural areas.

What was very surprising was that even areas down the Cape, and Martha’s Vineyard had very cold temperatures, with areas of frost. This is at least three weeks earlier than when they typically see frost.

Here in Boston, you can expect to begin to see frost anytime after the middle of October. On average, Boston’s Logan Airport does not fall to 32 degrees until approximately November 7th. This is due to the modifying effect of the ocean.

This begs the question, is winter starting from now? The short answer to this question is, no! In fact, if you did not receive a frost the other morning, you may not get one until perhaps towards the end of October, or even early November! looking over the latest long range computer models, we may quickly forget about talk of an early winter, and start asking, is winter even going to come this year? The short answer to that question is, yes!

With autumn beginning tonight, this is the start of when the weather starts to get interesting. For me, this begins the journey of trying to figure out just what kind of winter Mother Nature has in store for us this year. From this point forward, I will be plugging in my 17 point signal system I have derived over the years, to come up with my best forecast that I can for our winter.

One of the first signs that I use to formulate my forecast, is carefully following the first freeze and frosts across the region. In particular importance is exactly when Boston’s Logan Airport has its first freeze. Over years of study, I have found that the closer the airport reports its first freeze close to the average date (November 7th), the more severe the winter is. In years when the freeze comes past that date, the less snow falls the following winter. When this temperature is reached too early, say sometime in October, a colder, drier winter normally follows.

It is also of great importance that a freeze comes before the first accumulating snowfall. If a first snow comes before the first freeze, a less than average snowfall season is surely to follow. To some, this may sound like a bunch of folklore, and there’s nothing scientific to prove this theory. I would welcome you to review my winter forecasts over the years, and you will see that I have yet to miss a forecast!

Temperature profile is just one sign I look for in determining my forecast. There are 16 more signs that I have to study before my forecast is published in November! This year promises to bring a very difficult pattern to make a forecast. There are many natural atmospheric forces showing up this year that can tip the scale one way or another. We know there will be an El Nino event this winter. Typically, El Nino’s mean warm wet winter’s for us here in New Engalnd. However, El Nino’s come in different strengths. The stronger the El Nino is, the warmer & wetter the pattern is here in New England. The weaker El Nino is, the more cold weather can mix with the moisture, resulting in more snowfall. It also makes a difference whether the El Nino develops right off the coast of South America, or in the central Pacific. In addition to the El Nino, ocean temperatures in northern Pacific also play a crucial role in what type of winter is ahead for us here in New England.

Right now, a weak, central based El Nino appears to be developing in the Pacific. In addition, I am keeping a very close eye on the very warm ocean temperatures off British Columbia and the Gulf of Alsaska. I believe that with a El Nino in place, a much more active sub-tropical jet stream will be developing this winter. Remember, last winter, the northern polar jet was dominated, with many cold, dry storms. This winter, I am expecting more moisture laden storms in the southern branch of the jet stream. If these storms phase with the colder, northern branch, heavy snowfalls could be the result this winter, especially in eastern New England.

Along with the temperatures, I am also keeping a close eye on precipitation patterns across the region. Right now, NOAA has most of eastern Massachusetts clasified in an abnormally dry soil levels since the summer. Here’s the big question. Is all of this abnormally dry weather setting us up for a winter with heavy precipitation events? I do believe with the ocean temperature profile in the Pacific, which is similar to last year, and a oncoming El Nino, this could set the stage for a very memorable winter for the Boston area this year. I will keep you updated with this possibility over the next several weeks.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to quickly give a fall foliage report. At first glance, I thought that this could be a great year for foliage. However, recent weather patterns could change this line of thought. A hard freeze in northern New England, excessive dry weather as of late, and now unseasonably warm weather ahead, may take its toll on our vivid fall colors. These harsh weather conditions may tend to dull the leaves, or cause premature leaf drop. Only Mother Nature knows for sure, and with the right conditions, brilliant color can still occur!

Right now, leaves are beginning to change rapidly across the north country. Expect peak colors to arrive next weekend in northern Maine, and other elevated areas close to the Canadian border. Thereafter, expect the color wave to sweep into central New England by mid-October, and into southern New England by the third week of October, and finally into east coastal regions by Halloween time.

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I am rating this week a 10 out of 10. It doesn’t get much better than this, folks. From the period of this afternoon, straight through Thursday, expect mainly sunny & mild days, & clear and cool nights. Look for high temperatures to mainly be in the 60’s during the days, and 40’s at night. From the period of Thursday through Sunday, look for mainly sunny days, along with a warming trend. Look for temperatures to warm into the 70’s on Thursday and Friday, and possibly to near record levels of 85 degrees on Saturday! The warm weather should continue into Sunday, however a seabreeze may knock temperatures down into the upper 60’s along the coast.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing if there is more Indian Summer like weather in our future. I will also have your review of September, and a preview of what we should expect in October. In the meantime, enjoy the tranquil weather patterns this fall, Mother Nature may not be as kind the next season!

-Happy Birthday to my nephew Nick (Thursday)!!-

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Mid-September Chill…9/15/14

Hello! When it comes to weather in New England, I still think September offers the best patterns of the year. After this past weekend, I doubt many would disagree. Yes, it turned cloudy and a bit damp on Saturday, but what a turnaround yesterday! It was a spectactular day, with deep cobalt blue skies, low humidity, and comfortably cool temperatures.

Along with the beautiful weather, September brings many more things to the table to enjoy here in New England. It’s a great time of the year to spend time with family and friends before we go into hibernation for the winter!

New England has alot to offer. From the rugged White Mountains of New Hampshire, to the sandy shores of Cape Cod, and countless of lakes and ponds in between, the choices for outdoor activities are seemingly endless! Not to mention all of the fall festivals going on now, apple picking farms, and of course fall foliage trips!

Speaking about fall foliage, it’s not too early to start talking about the color wave! Even driving around the Boston area this weekend, I have noted some scattered color beginning to show. With the chilly weather of late, this will be the catalyst for the leaves to start changing.

As I have mentioned before, this could be one of the best years in memory for fall colors here in New England. Why? Well, alot has to do with the type of weather we have had from last springs bloomings straight through this past summer. With just enough precipitation, but not too much, and the cooler temperatures this past summer, the leaves are healthy, and ready to put on a spectaular show!

To bring out the best colors, it would be best that we continue with weather just like we have been having. Sunny mild, days, alternating with clear, cool nights will bring out the best colors.

It would be best if we avoid a period of unseasonably warm weather, or unseasonably cold weather as well. It’s also best to avoid too much rain, or high winds. These adverse conditions would damage the leaves, and would lead to muted colors.

So far, fall colors seem to be right on track for peak colors this season. To see some fall colors this weekend, you will need to travel way up north near the Canadian border and northern Maine. Here, peak colors will be coming on strong, arriving in these locations by the end of September.

From here, expect the color wave to start spreading south each week. I expect Columbus Day weekend to feature peak colors around the White Mountain region and central Vermont. Thereafter, the color show will begin spreading into eastern New England, reaching areas outside of I95 and coastal New Hampshire the third week of October, and finally the Boston area around Halloween time.

Looking back now, it seems as if the hot start we had to September is just a distant memory. Recently, a cooler regime has set up shop across much of the midwest and New England region. In fact, areas of Alberta, Canada and the Dakota’s of the upper midwest had an early season snowstorm last week!

Some may say, Pete, this is definitely a sign of a bad winter coming! Right? Well, I would say it’s not a sure thing just yet. Though impressive so being so early in the season, it’s still too early to tell if this is the real deal or not.

September can be a very tricky month to try and gauge the upcoming winter. Sometimes, believe it or not, the pattern from the previous winter may still be present in the atmosphere early in the following autumn.

Then, when the seasonal change really kicks into gear come November, the pattern is completely different than what we thought it was going to be. This is why I like to be patient and wait until November to release my official forecast for the upcoming winter.

With all that being said, I do see a decidedly turn to more autumn-like weather for the next 7 to 10 days here in New England. It looks like a pattern which will feature 3 to 5 chilly days, followed be 1 to 2 days of warmer days. I also see a continuation of the dry weather pattern we have been in since August.

With the cooler weather arriving, we do need to talk about the possibility of frost. I was quite surprised that some areas not too far from Boston had scattered frost last night. This means temperatures got down somewhere in the vicinity of the mid 30’s.

Keep in mind, technically we are still in the astronomic summer season. With an even chillier air mass arriving later this week, the threat of frost could be repeated and in fact be even more widespread than last nights frost. This is about 3 weeks ahead of schedule, even for outlying areas of Boston.

I must admit, this early chill is raising some eyebrows in the weather community. Is this just Mother Nature’s poker face, or is she sending us a sign to get ready for a tough winter ahead?

Looking way ahead, October could be a reverse. There are some signs that it actually could turn quite warm, with possibly several bouts of Indian Summer! So winter may not begin here in September after all!

Speaking about Indian Summer, I did want to quickly go over what I think real Indian Summer is. Since some areas have had their first frost, a period Indian Summer may be in their future. Indian Summer is a period of 3 to 5 days of mild, sunny weather with light winds. This pleasant period of weather must be after a community, or region, received their first frost or freeze.

With some cold nights ahead, I am expecting many areas of New England to have received their first frost, away from the coast. Hopefully we can get frost to coastal locations during October, then we can all enjoy some Indian Summer!

Now for your weekly outdoor fall activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10! Expect a mixture of sun and clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will be on the cool side, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60’s.

Watch for increasing clouds tonight. With the clouds coming in, it will not get so cold. Clouds act like a blanket, and the heat from the day can not radiate back into space. Low temperatures should drop back into the 50’s.

There may be a band of showers moving through the area first thing Tuesday morning. After that, skies should begin to clear during the afternoon. It will remain on the cool side, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60’s. Tuesday night will feature clear and chilly weather, with lows mainly in the upper 30’s in rural areas, to upper 40’s in urban areas.

Expect mainly dry weather for the period of Wednesday through Friday. There may be a brief shower on Thursday, otherwise I do not see any all day rains. It will continue to be on the brisk and chilly side, with highs mainly in the 60’s.

With the dry air overhead and clear skies, expect very chilly overnight temperatures. Look for many suburban areas to fall into the mid to upper 30’s, with areas of frost. In urban areas, and along the coast, look for temperatures to also be chilly, with lows in the lower to mid 40’s.

Right now, the weekend looks to get off to crisp, fall-like feel to the air, with a very chilly early Saturday morning. Thereafter, expect temperatures to slowly moderate during the weekend. Highs will mainly be in the 60’s Saturday, under mainly sunny skies.

A front approaching Sunday may cause some clouds to increase. With winds shifting into the southwest, expect warmer temperatures, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 70’s. Any rain showers should hold off until night.

Well that’s about it for now! in next week’s blog, I plan on updating everyone on the fall foliage forecast. I also will have another fall timetable update, and have your weekly official fall outdoor activity forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the early fall-like weather here in September, you never know what cards Mother Nature will show next!

-Thanks for reading!-

Pete

Suddenly…It’s Fall! 9/8/14

Hello! It’s not official yet, but the weather over the next 7 to 10 days will have the feel of fall settling in over New England. This is quite a change from the torrid hot start September got off to. True, we had no heat waves this summer, but the late season 90 degree rally for the first week of September now has brought Boston up to eight 90 degree days so far this summer. Not too shaby for such a anemic start.

This should not come as a total shock. My summer forecast did say that the summer will get hotter the deeper we get into it. The theory behind that was that it would take that long for the ocean temperatures to recover from the icy cold levels that we started out from last spring. With all that being said, even I began to doubt whether we would even see this surge of heat. As it turned out, Mother Nature delivered just the right amount of 90 degree days to bring my summer forecast right on the money this year!

So does this mean that summer is over? Is it time to break out long pants & hoodies? Is it time to pack away the flip flops? Well, yes and no. The front that crossed the area with severe weather on Saturday meant business. Temperatures dropped some 20 degrees on Saturday. In addition, the front swept all of the oppresive humidity out to sea. This lead to a top 10 day of the year yesterday. With deep cobalt blue skies, brilliant sunshine, and pleasantly warm temperatures, it’s why we remember September for having some of the best weather of the year here in New England.

Yes, it’s turning cooler…but is summer over? People want to know! Officially, summer ends on September 22. However, the nip to the air, especially coming up this weekend, will let you know that the door is closing fast. I would say the hottest of the summer is now behind us. It still may get warm, maybe even hot for a day or two, it still can do this in September. Last year, Boston hit 97 degrees on September 11!

Will this happen this year? Well, it doesn’t look like it at this point. After all, we have already reached 90 + degrees 3 times this September. This in itself is impressive. Normally, we average about 1 day of 90 degree heat during September. Anything is possible, but this year looks a little different to me.

The changes are subtle during the first two weeks of September. As noted last week, the start of September can feature full summer heat. As we move towards the Autumnal Equinox on September 22, the Northern Hemisphere continues to tilt away from the sun, and these changes increase more rapidaly. This allows cooler air to begin to pool in Canada. As the jet stream shifts further south, these cool shots can begin to sweep into the states. One such cool shot is building in Canada this week. As the jet stream plunges south, many places in the upper midwest will experience its first taste of winter this week!

Later this week, this cold shot will arrive in New England as a “cool shot.” This is about the time when we typically see our first taste of fall around here. It will not be cold mainly due to the modifying effect of the warm Atlantic Ocean to our east. This mutes the early fall chill here in eastern New England. With all that being said, it will feel chilly, to even cold across the interior of New England this weekend. I will let you know just how cold it will get in my forecaast shortly.

With the arrival of cooler weather, our attention begins to turn to fall foliage and the fall timetable. I was up in New Hampshire this weekend, and there were some scattered areas of leaves changing color. This early color typically occurs around swamps and bogs. To see some real foliage, you would need to travel way up to northern Maine. In this area, foliage will peak during the last week of September. From that point, the color wave will sink south in four consecutive weeks, not reaching the Boston area until around Halloween or so. With a cooler summer, and just enough rainfall, I am expecting vivid fall colors throughout most of New England this year.

What about the growing season? Frosts vary greatly throughout New England. Far interior and mountainous areas can receive a frost anytime during September. As we move into October, average frost arrives across the interior of southern New England and New Hampshire during the first week of October. Later in October, frost may end the growing season around the Boston area. Average first freeze at Logan Airport does not arrive on average until around the first week of November, due to the modification of the ocean.

As we move deeper into the autumn season, I will be discussing in greater detail about what type of winter I am expecting this year in New England. I can already see a major battle brewing between several media outlets as to what type of winter is coming. One outlet says mainly warm, with some snow. Another is predicting a severe winter, with bitter cold and record heavy snows. While yet another is forecasting a normal near normal winter ahead.

I truly appreciate any feedback I get from friends sending me links on these articles. As I have mentioned before, it’s still just a bit too early to actually give a legit forecast. In my opinion, everything starts this weekend. This will be the first clue by Mother Nature as to what kind of winter may be ahead. For sure, I will be monitoring these changes, along with my own 17 signals, to give you the best forecast I can give coming up in November.

Now for your weekly outdoor fall forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Look for pleasant weather for the rest of today, with sunny skies and light winds. Highs will mainly be in the lower 70’s. Tonight will feature dry weather, with increasing high clouds, with lows in the 50’s. These clouds should not impede your viewing of the beautiful full “Harvest Moon.”

Expect mainly cloudy skies on Tuesday. I am not ruling out some breaks of sun, especially north and west of Boston. South of boston, and especially down the Cape, a few showers may pass by now and again. It will be on the cool side, with highs mainly in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. It should remain dry Tuesday night, with lows in the 50’s to low 60’s.

Watch for another mainly dry day for Wednesday. I am expecting a good deal of clouds especially in the morning. Later, more sun may make for a pleasant afternoon. With the cloud cover, this may keep temperatures down, with highs mainly in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. Wednesday night should continue to be on the dry side, with lows mainly in the 50’s again.

Thursday may turn out to be the warmest day of the week, with highs surging into the upper 70’s. Later in the afternoon, a few showers or even thunderstorms may cross the area. If a area of low pressure developes, there may be a few more showers continuing Thursday night into Friday. It will be cooler Friday, with highs in the lower 70’s.

Later Friday, there may be another wave of low pressure, bringing a period of rain, possibly lingering into Saturday morning. After that, clearing skies should move into the region from northwest to southeast during the day.

You will notice a significant change in temperatures this weekend. Saturday should top off in the upper 60’s. It will be downright chilly Saturday night, with lows in the 30’s across the interior, and 40’s along the coast. Sunday will be very fall like, with highs in the lower to mid 60’s, and 30’s and 40’s at night…brrr!!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have another update on our fall like weather patterns shaping up. I will also talk more about volcano activity, and how this may affect our weather patterns. I will also have another update on our fall timetable. In the meantime, keep the blanket handy, you will need it this week!

***Happy Birthday to my niece Elena!!***

Thanks for reading!

Pete