Summer 2014: We Hardly Knew You! 9/1/14

Happy Labor Day to all! So far, it has been a changeable weekend of weather across the region. Saturday was a beautiful day, with abundant sunshine, dry air, and comfortable temperatures. Sunday featured an abrupt change, with muggy air streaming into the region, sparking off showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon. You would think that the rain would have cooled us off and would set us up for a dry, sunny Labor Day. However, this was not the case.

Down here on the Cape, I awoke to very muggy conditions with cloudy skies. Looking at some of the latest observations, it looks like the sun has broken through up in the Boston area. This will lead to a very sultry Labor Day across the Boston area, with highs in the upper 80’s! My recommendation would be to get to the beach if you can!

Many believe that Labor Day means that summer is over. If you ask a meteorologists, the answer would be yes, it’s over. For them, fall begins today, consisting of the three month period of September, October and November. This system is mainly used for record keeping purposes. Of course, Mother Nature is the official time keeper with the change of the seasons. Fall does not officially arrive in the Northern Hemisphere until September 22nd.

With Labor Day falling on September 1st this year, it has meant an abrupt end to summer vacations and other summer activities. Looking back, it has been a year which has featured more of a cooler regime than warm. With last winter lingering well into the spring, and summer getting off to a sluggish start, many folks are feeling a bit shortchanged this year. For others, it has been a glorious summer, with just the right mix of warm weather and low humidity. Of course it’s all relative. What’s hot to some, is cool to others, and vice versa.

With all that being said, I have some good news for everyone today! Often, some of our finest weather of the year occurs during the month of September. Looking over some of the long range charts this morning, I see no reason to believe that this September will once again deliver some of the best weather of the year.

On average, September here in the Boston area starts out with high temperatures in the upper 70’s. These temperatures cool to the upper 60’s by months end. Night time lows start out in the low 60’s at the start of the month, cooling to the low 50’s by months end. Rainfall averages approximately 3 and a half inches here in Boston during September. This year, I am expecting a warmer than normal September, with below normal amount of rain.

As the earth continues to tilt away from the sun and the days begin to grow shorter, we do have to start introducing the start of the autumn season. Autumn here in New England can mean sunny, warm days, and clear crisp nights. Frost typically stays away from areas within 25 miles of the coast. Across the interior, frost is likely during the last week of September.

In addition, you can expect to see the leaves begin to change as we move deeper into the month. Peak fall colors are still nearly two months away for us here in Boston. However, across the interior and far to the north, the colors turn much more rapidly. The color wave begins in earnest in the northern stretches of New England by the end of September, not making it to Boston until around Halloween time. With the cooler temperatures this summer, and just enough rainfall, I am expecting vivid colors across New England this year!

With fall approaching, many have been asking me what kind of winter to expect this year here in New England. To be honest, it’s one of my favorite subjects to talk about. Bring the subject up, and I guarantee you a good, intellectual scientific conversation for as long as you can take it!

I love all four season here in New England, but by far my favorite is winter. There’s something about a good old fashioned New England winter that makes me feel alive! Perhaps it was because I grew up during the Great Blizzard of ’78? Or, all the fun times I had growing up in my tight knit neighborhood with all my friends enjoying all types of outdoor winter activities? Whatever the reason, I am a native New Englander who loves winter storms, and outdoor winter activities!

My official winter forecast will not be released until about the third week of November. However, over the coming weeks, I will be discussing about our upcoming winter in greater detail, and what to expect. Even at this early stage, I have noticed larger publications chiming in on what they think the upcoming winter may bring. It’s so nice a loyal reader of mine sends me these links asking me what my thoughts are regarding these forecasts.

The latest battle was between the Old Farmers’ Almanac, and NOAA of all people. I was quite surprised that NOAA actually made a rebuttal statement regarding the Almanac’s winter forecast. It’s no secret now that the Almanac has come out on record calling for a severe winter for us here in New England this year. To which NOAA responded that there is no proof of such a forecast, and that it’s too early to make such statements.

There was a time when the Old Farmers’ Almanac was looked down upon many meteorologists and government organizations, claiming their forecasts were just lucky guesses and wishful forecasts. That still is the case today in many circles, however, over the years, they have gained some credibility with their uncanny methods of predicting long range forecasts correctly.

Is it just luck, or do they really have a method to their madness? I believe it’s a little bit of both. Where NOAA uses scientific computer data and long term trends to make their forecasts, the Almanac uses formulas derived from the sun, ocean temperatures and natural trends. It’s also known NOAA is pro global warming, and basically has assumed that every season is going to average above normal temperatures for the foreseeable future. This has been the case for the better part of the last 30 years or so.

This is what made last years winter so shocking for many in the weather community. Last winter bucked the warming trend that had been going on for decades here in the states, bringing many in the Midwest their coldest winter on record? Was this just one cold winter, in an otherwise warming climate? Well, it depends who you ask!

My opinion continues to be that the earth’s climate is variable, with warm and cold cycles, and has the ability to flip quickly from one season to the next. I believe, after some 30 years of a warm cycle, that we are now entering a period of a cooler regime. Does this mean the next ice age is coming, no. Just as we had some cold weather and snowstorms in the warm cycle, we will have periods of hot weather and drought in the cooler cycle.

This winter coming up is particularly interesting. With the abnormally warm water persisting in the Pacific, low solar radiation, a weak El Nino on the way, and a good chance of significant high latitude blocking, we just may be in for a winter that the Almanac is forecasting. What happens is the warm water off the Pacific northwest coast promotes a blocking ridge of high pressure. This builds a huge blocking ridge of high pressure into western Canada. A weak El Nino will activate the sub tropical jet stream, sending disturbances loaded with moisture across the southern tier of the United States. If this moisture combines with the northern jet stream, prolific snow and cold could pound the east coast, including New England. If high latitude blocking is present in Greenland, slow moving intense nor’easters could lash New England with high winds and heavy precipitation. I will be monitoring these factors very closely as we move deeper into the fall.

Now for your weekly outdoor fall forecast. I will rate this week another 8 out of 10 on the scale. Look for rather hot and muggy weather for the rest of your Labor day. Many areas will feature hazy sun, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s. Look for low clouds and fog to persist down near the Cape, with temperatures about 10 degrees cooler, but with the same amounts of humidity levels. If the air destabilizes, watch for a pop up thunderstorm, especially south of Boston towards the Cape.

Expect muggy weather to persist tonight, with areas of low clouds and fog to reform, especially down towards the cape. It will be warm and muggy, with lows in the 60’s.

Watch for very warm and muggy weather to be the rule on Tuesday. With hazy sun, look for temperatures to be in the mid to upper 80’s once again. A very slow moving cold front will be traversing New England during the day. This will act as a focus mechanism for some showers and thunderstorms to form during the afternoon. Because of the humid air mass, these storms may contain heavy downpours with localized flash flooding. After some evening storms, dryer and somewhat cooler air will begin to filter into the region.

Expect mainly sunny, warm and dry weather to be the rule from Wednesday through Friday. Despite the calendar, these will be great beach days, with highs mainly in the middle 80’s during the days, and 60’s at night.

A cold front will be approaching the area on Saturday. This will bring more clouds to our area, along with the chance of thunderstorms. highs will be in the 80’s once again. At this point, any showers should be exiting the region come Sunday morning, with clearing skies during the afternoon. This will usher in cooler and dryer weather, with highs mainly in the 70’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new tropical update. There was no update today, because there is nothing going on right now. I will also begin to focus in on our fall timetable, and what you can expect. In addition, I will have a new update on the ongoing volcanic eruption in Iceland. In the meantime, it was nice knowing you summer 2014, see you for some Indian Summer! -GO PATRIOTS!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Great Vacation Week! 8/25/14

Sometimes, I feel like a broken record. As we get later in a season, the weather pattern seems to just repeat itself, over and over. This week, for instance, we have a pattern that has repeated itself several times over the summer. This means, if you have vacation this week, you picked a good week! I will have all the fine weather details of the forecast coming up in a bit.

Speaking of vacation, I enjoyed a very brief vacation this past weekend down the Cape. Keeping with the theme of this summer, it certainly felt very September-like. In fact, it felt more like October at night!

This lead many family members to question me where summer was, and just what the heck is going on this year? To remind everyone, I did forecast a cooler summer than in years past for this summer.

There are many reasons why the weather has been cooler this year. First, the ocean temperatures have not warmed up as much as in years past. Second, the ocean temperatures in the Pacific have not been conducive to sending any sustained heat here in New England. Third, we have had mainly a negative NAO this summer, which is a block in the North Atlantic. This surpresses the jet stream, keeping hot weather away. The fourth reason, and maybe the most important, the sun is not as strong this year. Also, I believe that after several very hot summers, Mother Nature is balancing the atmosphere out with a cooler scenerio this year.

Don’t get me wrong, much like for the better part of this summer, the weather was beautiful this weekend. While relaxing on Old Silver Beach, one of my favorite beaches in New England, I was monitoring a few very interesting observations.

First, the cloud formations were amazing on Saturday. Huge cumulus clouds mixed with the brilliant late August sun bringing a silvery sheen to the water, reminding everyone just how the beach got its name!

Old Silver Beach is one of just a few beaches in New England that faces west. As the sun moves from east to west during the day, it reflects off the ocean, resulting in a silver shine on the water that makes this beach so special!

Then on Sunday, a brief dust devil whipped up out of no where, flipping chairs and folding umbrellas. This is at least the second or third dust devil I have witnessed on this beach. I can hear everyone asking me, Pete, what the devil is a dust devil? The devil is in the details.

A dust devil is natural phenominon, that has some characteristics of its tornado cousin. Dust devils are little devils that seem to appear out of no where, flipping chairs and swirling sand up into the air. Most cases are not dangerous. However, some dust devils can strengthen enough to cause some structural damage and cause some injuries. The strongest dust devils are typically seen in the dessert southwest.

Dust devils form, typically on warm sunny days, when hot air rises rapidly and collides with cooler air above. As the hot air rises rapidly, the column of hot air gets stretched vertically, resulting in a spinning vortex. As more hot air rushes in to replace the air that is rapidly rising, the spinning effect intensifies and becomes self sustained. As available hot air rises rapidly, cooler air gets sucked into the dust devil, which quickly dissipates the sysytem.*

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to do a brief tropical update. We have a monster super hurricane in the Pacific named Maria. Maria may strengthen into a category 5 hurricane as it moves into the open Pacific. This storm is not a threat to any landmass, however, it will send massive breakers towards the California coast.

Here in the Atlantic, we have tropical storm Cristobal. I have nothing to do with the naming of these storms. This storm will also not impact any landmass. However, as Cristobal passes well southeast of New England, it may send some ground swellsfor marine interests. We are moving towards the peak of hurricane season and there are indications that several more storms may form in the coming weeks. I will keep you posted if any of these storms is a threat to New England.

Now for your summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Expect summer conditions for the rest of today through Wednesday. Expect mainly sunny skies, and warmer temperatures. Look for temperatures mainly in the 80’s today and tomorrow with moderate levels of humidity.

On Wednesday itself, temperatures may heat up close to 90, with higher levels of humidity. Later on Wednesday, there is a possibility of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. Watch for clearing skies and cooler weather to arrive later Wednesday night.

Watch for cooler and drier weather to arrive for Thursday through Saturday. Skies should be mainly sunny, with just a few fair weather clouds. High temperatures will mainly be in the 70’s for Thursday and Friday, and widespread 50’s at night.

It may turn warmer on Saturday, with highs back up into the 80’s. This may be your best beach day for the upcoming holiday weekend. Right now, the Labor Day outlook is a bit murky. Looking at the latest computer models, it looks like we may get through most of Sunday without any showers. Clouds may start to increase, so it doesn’t look like a great beach day from this point.

As for Labor Day itself, it appears as if a storm will be moving through northern New England, so be prepared for some soaking showers up there. Here in southern New England, the best weather looks like it may be down towards the Cape, with some sunshine and just a chance of a few showers. A washout is not indicated at this point. Elsewhere, Labor Day looks a bit inclement, with a few periods of showers, and temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70’s. I may update this holiday forecast if I see any major changes.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your outlook for the month of September. I will also have a preview for the upcoming fall. In addition, I will be talking a bit about the upcoming winter outlook published by the Old Farmer’s Almanac…you will want to check this out! In the meantime, enjoy the last unofficial week of summer. School, football and other fall activities are right around the corner!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

*some information derived from Wikipedia

Feeling Like September…8/18/14

Hello! No Tax weekend is over! I was selling plenty of refrigerators, washers, dryers and ranges, but did not sell one air conditioner! Why? Maybe because it felt more like the middle of September, rather than the middle of August.

If you think it has been a bit on the cool side, you’re right. So far temperatures for August have been running about 3 degrees below average. These cooler temperatures have got folks thinking back to school time, fall foliage trips and football.

It also has the stores thinking fall. While shopping in Shaw’s the other night, I nearly ran into a huge display of Halloween candy! I’m not sure whether that has to do with the cooler temperatures, or stores just pushing the holidays way earlier than they should be to make more money. I would side with the latter on that one.

Last week, a loyal fan of mine sent me an interesting link from a popular weather outlet, stating that the Polar Vortex is coming in September this year!

First, let me explain a little bit what the Polar Vortex is. The Polar Vortex is a ever presence vortex of tightly wound jet stream winds that normally resides in the polar regions of the arctic. During the winter, this vortex expands over the poles, sending tentacles of arctic air towards our continent from time to time.

Occasionally, under extreme blocking conditions, the whole vortex itself will drop into the upper midwest and New England regions, bringing extreme cold and bitter winds.

I think what the article was saying, is that there is a higher than normal chance, that an unusually cold outbreak of air may visit the Great Lakes, New England region this September. Not that the Polar Vortex is coming. It’s not unusual at all to get brief cool shots during September.

However, it’s far too early for the Polar Vortex to be even remotely close to New England during September. Many years, September can bring our best weather, with sunny warm days, and clear cool nights. We had a beautiful September last year, with temperatures averaging well above average.

With that being said, with the days growing shorter, and the earth beginning to tilt away from the sun, cooler air begins to pool in the polar regions, and Canada. If conditions are right, these cooler air masses can sweep into northern latitudes, resulting in early fall chills.

Do I believe we are heading for a early winter? Well, it is true we have had a unusual jet stream so far this summer. As mentioned in earlier posts, we have been fortunate here in New England this summer. We have been in a zone of not too much hot & humid weather, and not the unusually chilly weather of the Great Lakes and midwest regions. Up to this point, it has been classified as a warm summer, averaging just about normal. However, recent chilly days and nights have left people wondering whether summer is over.

I am not ready to say it’s over just yet. Even with the September like weather on the way for this week, there are signs that there still could be a hot spell as we close out the final week of August and into the start of September. A huge bubble of hot weather will be building in the southern plains this week. As a shot of unusually cold weather plunges into the northern Rockies next week, very warm to hot weather may spread up into New England around Labor Day weekend. This type of scenerio has been forecasted many times so far this summer, only to have a cool front sweep in from Canada to squash the incoming heat…so stay tuned!

As we move closer to fall, you will be hearing more talk about the upcoming El Nino from various media outlets. I did want to briefly clarify a few things. El Nino is not a particular storm coming. It’s not a human induced event. El Nino is a phenominon which occurs naturally in the Pacific every 5 to 7 years.

There are three events that meteorologists and scientists follow very carefully. We have El Nino, or the warming of ocean waters off the western coast of South America. We have La Nina, when the opposite occurs, and cold water dominates. And then we have what we had last winter, La Nada, or neautral conditions.

As is typically the case with Mother Nature, there are different variations of El Nino, making it difficult to forecast what effects it may have in any particular region. The effects of El Nino are especially difficult to forecast here in New England. A strong El Nino tends to diminish the strength of the polar jet stream (cold), and brings us milder winters with lots of rain.

However, a weaker El Nino not only has a very active sub-tropical jet stream (moisture), but also has a stronger polar jet stream. When these two jet streams actively work with each other, the result is a winter which can deliver prolific amounts of snow and cold.

Right now, the early call on this upcoming El Nino is it to remain on the weaker side. This is still early, and I will be discussing this topic in much greater detail as we move towards fall and early winter.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to briefly talk about a event we need to follow carefully. Scientists are carefully monitoring a build up of pressure of volcanic gases in Iceland. Icelandic volcanoes are known for sudden explosions, and tremendous amounts of volcanic ash. If this were to occur, it could enhance winter conditions here in New England. It could also adversely affect air travel to portions of northern Europe.

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Not bad, if you like September like weather. Expect partly sunny weather for the rest of today, with highs mainly in the mid 70’s. Be prepared for clear and cool weather for tonight, with lows mainly in the 50’s.

Look for similar weather for your Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s. It will be dry Tuesday night with lows again in the 50’s, except low 60’s in urban areas.

Expect Wednesday to feature a mixture of sun and clouds with temperatures just a touch warmer, topping off near 80. It should be mainly dry, but I can’t rule out some showers passing by at night and into Thursday. It does not look like it will be a washout at this time.

Later Thursday and through next weekend, watch for the feel of fall to really take hold over New England. A unusually strong, winter-like strong high pressure area for this time of the year will build north of our region.

This will act as two things. First, it should surpress wet weather to our south from reaching us. Second, the position of this high will freshen northeast winds from Canada, bringing cool temperatures during the day, and chilly weather at night. Expect highs to mainly be in the very low 70’s during the day, and low 50’s at night! Get the sweat tops out!

Conditions should remain mainly dry, but I can’t rule out some areas of fog and drizzle from time to time along the coast, and a pop up shower or two across the interior.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring the possiblity of some hot weather finally reaching New England to close out the summer. I will also have your important Labor Day weekend holiday forecast. In the meantime, don’t put away the summer attire just yet, but get the fall stuff out for an early show!

-Thanks for reading!-

Pete

Mid-week Storm…Then Nice Again! 8/11/14

Hello! What a beautiful weekend here in New England! When it comes to weather, it just doesn’t get much better than this! Although not intense summer heat, it was certainly warm enough to go to the beach, or head out into the water. Who wants intense summer heat, anyway?

I’m sure there are a few people out there that say, “the hotter the better!” I can relate. It’s the same with folks, like myself, who love winter. I love winters that feature lots of snowstorms and bitterly cold weather! Thankfully for many, none of which are in the forecast. With all that being said, I do still love a good summer!

Speaking of summer, and the beach, I enjoyed a great day yesterday along with some good buddies of mine, at Nantasket Beach! After all these years, Nantasket Beach continues to be a cherished landmark enjoyed by many folks.

Perhaps it’s because its close proximity to Boston? Or is it the fresh ocean air and ocean views that go on for as far as the eye can see? Of course, it doesn’t hurt knowing a good friend who lives right along the beach! What added to the beauty last evening, was viewing the Full “Sturgeon” Supermoon rising in the east…what a sight!

With all of this beautiful weather, what’s with this talk of a storm coming? Yes, if you do have vacation this week, I’m afraid there is going to be a rather large speed bump to get over during the middle of this week.

Yes, we are having a nice summer this year. However, looking over some statistics, this has been the coolest summer since the infamous non summer of 2009. It certainly hasn’t been as cool as that summer, just cooler than the last several. With all that being said, the jet stream patterns have been anything but normal so far this summer.

Now that we are getting deeper into the summer season, a significant battle is setting up between our hottest weather of the summer, and this persistant early fall-like pattern we have been in the majority of the summer so far. The first evidence of this will be an unusual intense late fall-like storm slamming into New England this Wednesday. I will have more about this storm in my forecast shortly, but you can expect a wind whipped washout, gusty winds, and possibly even some severe thunderstorms.

What happens after this storm? Will autumn be sweeping into New England? Hardly. In fact, I do believe some of the warmest weather of the summer will be building into the region sometime between August 20th and 30th. It may not be hot everyday, however, I am expecting Boston to experience it’s first heat wave of the summer during this period. This means you can expect a stretch of weather of at least 3 days of 90 degree plus temperatures. So don’t put those air conditioner’s away just yet!

In addition to the warmer weather, there are some signs that the tropics may become more active off the east coast as we head towards September. This makes sense, as our ocean temperatures are at their warmest levels this time of the year. It is important to follow forecasts very carefully as we move towards the peak of hurricane season. Hurricane experts continue to emphasize that areas off the east coast is prime location for hurricane development this season. If this is true, and a storm were to develop with the pattern we have had this summer, there is a very good chance of a tropical like storm affecting New England this year. I will be monitoring this potential over the next several weeks carefully and keep everyone updated.

Before I get to the vacation forecast, I did want to quickly review some recent interesting global weather events. First, areas of the midwest here in the states are having one of their coolest summers in recent memory! In addition, a good amount of summer rains have kept crops in good shape for a change this season.

Second, the drought in California has almost reached unprecedented levels. Should the rainy season not arrive again this winter, the state will be declared a disaster area.

Third, Hurricane Iselle threatened Hawaii with it’s first hurricane since 1992. Fortunately, the hurricane weakened to a tropical storm just before landfall. Despite the downgrade, significant flooding and tropical force winds resulted in moderate damage to the island.

Are these weather events natural occurrances, or are they part of a bigger picture of drastic climate change? Perhaps they are being influenced by a natural phenominon called El Nino? With a oncoming El Nino coming for this upcoming winter, these are all very important topics that need to be discussed. Over the next several weeks, I will go into more detailed discussion about what El Nino is, why it occurs, and what implications it has on our climate.

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, mainly due to a significant mid-week storm expected . Expect early morning sun today giving way to bilding cumulus in the afternoon. Later, with a disturbance moving through, there may be a pop up shower. I am not expecting anything heavy. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels, with highs in the low 80’s. Tonight will be on the mild side, with mainly dry conditions. With the air flow changing to the south, it may begin to feel a bit more muggy out.

After some early morning sun, watch for clouds to increase and thicken during the day on Tuesday. This is unfortunate, as Tuesday night is the peak of the Perseid Meteor Showers. With all of the clouds, viewing will not be ideal. We may get by with a dry Tuesday evening, but look for showers to begin to move into the region before midnight. Winds will begin to freshen from the southeast. Later at night, and especially during the early morning hours of Wednesday, a unusual intense storm will lash southern New England. Expect heavy rain, and possibly some severe thunderstorms. It will also be windy, with southeast winds gusting up to 30 and 40 m.ph. Because we will be in the warm sector of the storm, it will feel warm and muggy, with temperatures in the low 70’s. Later on Wednesday, the heavy weather will shift into northern New England. Here in southern New England, the very heavy rains will diminish, however, it will still be unsettled the rest of the day with areas of showers and possibly another strong thunderstorm.

Watch for slow improvement Wednesday night into Thursday. However, this storm will stall in northern New England. This means conditions will remain very unstable for Thursday and possibly even into Friday. After some early morning sun, building cumulus clouds will lead to the chance of a pop up shower. These days will not be all day rain, just some scattered showers here and there.

Looking ahead to next weekend, computer models are hinting that the stalled storm will push further away from New England. This should leave us in a drier northwest flow. I’m expecting a mixture of sun and puffy cumulus clouds. Look for highs to average around 80. It won’t be perfect, but certainly not rainy. I hope this works out as my niece’s will be running in the Falmouth Road Race…Go Lanie! Go Olivia!

I will not be there as I will be busy selling refrigerators, ranges, washers, dryers, dishwashers, ect…for the Massachusetts No Sales Tax Holiday! Come on in!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor the prospects of our first heat wave. I will also have your weekly summer vacation forecast. In addition, I will have my first segment of what exactly El Nino is, and it’s impact on New England. In the meantime, it wouldn’t be New England if we didn’t have a storm every now and again…summer will return!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Back To…Summer! 8/4/14

Good morning! Thought I was going to say something else? Yes, it was a brutal weekend for folks who enjoy warm, summery weather. However, it’s not yet time for back to school! It certainly felt like back to school weather this past weekend, where temperatures were nearly 20 degrees below normal, especially here along the coast and down on the Cape.

To add to the misery, heavy downpours soaked many areas south of Boston, and especially the Cape during the day on Saturday. Sunday was a little better, but certainly still no day at the beach!

Luckily for us, summer will be making a comeback to New England this week. No, there won’t be any heat waves, but you can put away the light jackets and sweat tops for now. Overall, if you have vacation this week, I would give it a thumbs up! I will go over the forecast for the week in more detail shortly.

So far, this summer can be summarized with three unusual events. First, we had Hurricane Arthur brush the region on the 4th of July. Second, there has been no heat waves so far this summer. And third, the very unusual EF2 coastal tornado last Monday in Revere.

Many folks have been asking me, Pete, is summer over? Are frosts and fall foliage coming soon? The wise guy answer to this is, has it even started? Well, believe it or not folks, so far this summer, the temperatures have averaged slightly above normal here in Boston!

I knew this was going to happen this year. So far, my summer forecast calling for cooler temperatures has worked out just about on the nose. However, keep in mind, the forecast was not calling for a cooler than normal summer. The forecast called for a summer cooler than the past several, but actually would end up slightly above average.

A friend of mine on Facebook made a very good observation on one of my posts this past week. He understood that it feels much cooler this summer than previous ones, because the past several summers have been so unusally hot. This is exactly what we’re feeling this summer.

What about heat waves? True, there has been nothing even remotely close to a heat wave this summer. Remember, an official heat wave consists of three consecutive days of 90 degree plus temperatures. So far, Boston has only mustered up 4 days of 90 degree heat. On average, Boston reaches 90 degrees 14 times during the summer.

I don’t believe we are going to reach this number this summer. As my summer forecast has been consistant calling for between 7 and 12 days of 90 degree days this summer. The problem is this persistant pattern that has been in place since last winter, except it’s now the summer version. There are many other complex factors, some which have been discussed in previous posts.

Of course, everything is relative. What may feel cool to many, is just perfect for others! There are many who feel that this has been the most pleasant summer in years. With the right mix of very warm, humid days from the south, offset by cooler and dryer airmasses from Canada, it certainly has been a summer that has featured a little something for everyone!

So what about the rest of August? Well, it certainly didn’t start out very summery! However, like I mentioned above, things will be warming up this week. At this point, I still don’t see any heat waves in the near future. If anything, it looks as if the pattern we have been in, will continue for the remainder of the month. If you are looking for a heat wave, I see our best chance to attain this will be somewhere between August 15th and the 24th. The good news, with the season reaching full maturity this month, I still believe we have some of our best weather of the summer ahead of us as we head into September!

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to do a quick tropical update. So far, the Pacific Ocean has been more active than the Atlantic. This is quite typical with an oncoming El Nino season. With that being said, we do see some tropical activity beginning to blossom in the Atlantic. Tropical storm Bertha will be crossing the Bahamas this week, then accelerate while moving north northeastward threading the needle between Bermuda and New England later this week. This storm will not threaten New England. However, ground swells eminating from the storm will likely bring some nice surf to some beaches in New England. Otherwise, we don’t have much to worry about here in New England for at least the next two weeks.

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. I am rating this week an 8 out of 10. Expect warmer weather today! Look for sun, along with some building cumulus clouds. If you live north and west of I95, you may have to dodge an afternoon summer thunderstorm. With weak steering currents, some of these storms may produce flash flooding. Otherwise, expect a good beach day, with highs between 80 and 85. Monday night will be warm and mainly dry, with lows in the 60’s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature very warm and somewhat muggy conditions. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid 80’s. With a cool front slowly approaching from the north, expect a chance of a thunderstorm on Tuesday afternoon. This should not stop you from going to the beach. There will be a much greater threat of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednseday night. Some storms may be strong, so please listen to local forecasts.

This activity may linger along the coast early Thursday. Later on Thursday, the atmosphere may still be a bit unstable. This will lead to a chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. However, I am happy to report that beginning Friday, straight through next weekend, I am forecasting mostly sunny and dry weather! No hot weather, no thunderstorms, just near perfect high temperatures of around 80! You can also expect more great sleeping weather, with lows in the upper 50’s and low 60’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the look out for that first heat wave. I will also have your new weekly vacation forecast. I will also be discussing about the developing El Nino, and what implications this may have for us here in New England. In the meantime, consider this past weekend a false alarm, I will let you know when it’s really time to panic!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Severe Weather Strikes Area…7/28/14

Hello! Wild weather strikes the Boston area this morning! In fact, folks in Revere experienced a tornado! After seeing the damage on the news, I would estimate that the National Weather Service is going to rate this tornado as a low end EF2 on the Fujita Scale.

This is significant. Tornadoes are rated in a 6 tier Fujita Scale. They start out as an EF0, where winds are between 65 and 85 m.p.h. EF1 are winds from 86 to 110 m.p.h. EF2 tornadoes has winds between 111 to 135 m.p.h.! This type of tornado causes significant damage! Folks who were in the path of the tornado described the noise as a freight train heading towards them…Thank God there were no fatalities!

Other communities, probably in the developmental stage of the tornado, also experienced damage due to high winds. These areas included Needham, West Roxbury, to Chelsea and Everett. Many areas also experienced flash flooding as the storm moved through.

We are not totally out of the woods, as the cold front still needs to push through the area this afternoon, so more storms, some possibly severe, is still a possibility.

According to the National Weather Service, this is the first confirmed tornado in Suffolk County since 1950! This proves that Mother Nature does not discriminate. No matter where you live, severe weather is always a threat to strike!

In typical New England fashion, the weather this past weekend brought a little bit of everything to the region. Friday was supposed to be a beautiful day, with sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Some forecasters were calling it “a chamber of commerce type of day.”

Oh, it was beautiful, but I noticed a certain haze to the sky that I have seen in years past. This wasn’t one of those “triple H” day’s that we see so often here in the middle of the summer. The steering currents were directing air to New England straight out of Canada. To be fair to local meteorologists, there is alsmost no way in predicting this type of natural haze, until after the fact.

So often this time of the year the air flow comes from the southwest, bringing hazy, hot & humid weather into New England from the deep south.

After doing some quick research, my suspicions proved correct. This wasn’t haze from air pollution. This was smoke in the air which travelled some 3,000 miles from British Columbia into New England! Wildfires in the Canadian Province has been burning out of control for weeks now, and the jet stream sent a plume of smoke straight into Massachusetts! A subtle shift to the jet stream cleared the smoke out in time for a nice Saturday.

In any given day on earth, this was not a big deal. Wildfires happen during the dry season many places out west. However, it is interesting to note that the smoke came from a region so far away to our northwest. Normally, this time of the year, our weather patterns do not come from this region. As mentioned earlier, our weather typically comes from the southwest, especially during July & August.

I mention this because it appears our summer pattern has finally set up shop across the country. Since the spring, I have been calling for a cooler summer on the way for New England. I also mentioned how it still looked like the same winter pattern that we had, just the summer version.

Folks, if you think it has been a cooler summer here, people in the midwest are wondering if there will even be a summer. Many areas are having one of their coolest summers on record.

Places like Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas, Texas are running well below normal temperatures. Along with the cooler temperatures, many areas in the nation’s bread basket have been receiving copious amounts of rainfall.

After suffering through many years of incredibly hot temperatures and severe dought, this will be a boom year for farmers in this region!

What about us, here in New England? Actually, we have been quite fortunate here this summer, so far. With the huge ridge building across the Pacific northwest and British Columbia, this has sent frequent pockets of chilly air deep into the midwest. Much like last winter, we have been on the most eastern extremity of the unusually cool weather.

At times, this pattern relaxes, allowing for some warm to briefly hot weather to ride up along the east coast into Boston. Unfortunately, being on the dividing line betwen the cool air to our west, and warm air to our south, has brought increasing periods of inclement weather for us here this summer.

Earlier, I was thinking that this pattern would relax as we head into August. I kept holding out hope for a good friend who lives on Nantasket Beach, of a hotter & drier August on the way. After carefully reviewing new long range data, I’m sorry to say that I do not believe this will be the case. The summer pattern has locked in, and I don’t see much change over the next month or two.

This does not mean summer is over! I still believe we will continue to have some stretches of fine summer weather. As the ocean temperatures continue to warm, cooler intrusions of air will have a more difficult time reaching the east coast.

With all things relative, there is a crowd of people out there who believe this has been one of the best summers in recent memory. With New England being in just the right location to receive the perfect mix of warm air from the south, and cooler and dry air from Canada, I too would agree that this has been one of the most comfortable summers that I can remember.

Some would like it hotter. I too would like more snow in the winter! The quick answer for this would be to tell us to move! In my opinion, New England offers a climate type from all around the world in any given year for everyone. Maybe it’s not such a hot and muggy summer this year, but there will be more in the coming years.

At this point, I am expecting a similar pattern as we had in July, to continue into August, with perhaps a slight tick up in the temperatures. With that being said, I would be not be surprised if we do not have any heat waves here in Boston this summer.

An official heat wave is reached when we hit 90 degrees for three consecutive days. So far Boston has reached 90 degrees 4 times this summer. On average, we reach 90 degrees 14 times in any given summer. I still am expecting us to reach 90 between 7 and 12 times this summer.

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Keep an eye to the sky this afternoon! Look for muggy weather this afternoon. With a cold front pressing into the area, look for the possibility of more severe thunderstorms. In addition, there still is the possibility of a tornado touch down. Please monitor local meteorologists or the National Weather Service for any watches or warnings.

Any storms will push offshore tonight, with clearing skies, and drier weather moving in. Tuesday will be a much quieter day! Early morning clouds should evaporate leading to mainly sunny skies during the afternoon. It will be noticeably drier, with highs mainly in the 70’s.

Expect sun mixed with cumulus clouds for Wednesday through Friday. It should stay mainly dry. However, if you live across the interior, there may be some pop up showers. As we move towards Thursday and Friday, there is a chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm even in the Boston area. The best weather should be across the Cape, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70’s.

As we head towards next weekend, the weather is looking a bit iffy once again. Clouds will be more numerous, and there may be a chance of some showers, especially across the Cape & Islands. There is a small chance, with a system to the west, and one off the coast, there may be a slice of dry weather around the Boston area. Temperatures will be slightly below average, with highs near 80. I hope that works out!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a more in depth look at what the weather in August may bring. My earlier thoughts are preliminary, and this could change…In the meantime, please monitor the latest forecasts for severe weather, Mother Nature seems to be in a mood not to be taken lightly!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Lousy Summer…Or Just Typical? 7/21/14

Hello! Yes, the weather this past weekend left alot to be desired. Friday was nice enough, with generally sunny skies, and warm temperatures. Saturday was supposed to be nice, but what was with the dark cloud which overspread the area during the day?

If you were down the Cape on Sunday, as I was, forget about it! It was cloudy and cold, with heavy showers developing during the afternoon. For me, this was not too much of a surprise, as I mentioned in last week’s forecast that Sunday may turn inclement.

Of course, Mother Nature doesn’t care too much about our beach weather, our weekends…she has her her own agenda. Don’t forget, we had a streak of about 9 weekends dating back into May that were spectacular. But in today’s society, it’s what have you done for me lately?

So what gives? Are we having a lousy summer, or what? Well, I wouldn’t call it lousy, I would say this is more typical for New England. Way back in May, I forecasted a cooler summer on the way, than in years past. I rate how hot summers are by how many 90 degree days we attain. I forecasted between 7 and 12 days of 90 degree + days this summer. So far, we have had three. It looks like we will have a fourth day on the way for this week.

Forget about the past several summers. These summers were the exception rather than the rule. In my opinion, these summers were the peak of this warm cycle we have been in past 30 years or so.

Many friends have been asking me where the hot weather is this summer? I can tell you this, it’s not in New England! In fact, the whole country is cooler this summer, than in years past. This does not mean it hasn’t gotten warm. To this point, we have had a warm summer, just not hot. Last summer at this time, we were finishing up a scorching 7 day heat wave. Remember, it’s the extremes that make the average.

I don’t know the exact cause of the cooler weather this summer, but I do have my theories. First, I believe that last years winter pattern has really never left us. There is still a very warm patch of water in the North Pacific, off of British Columbia. This has kept a persistant ridge of high pressure in the Pacific Northwest. With this warm water in place, the northern jet stream has been more dominant bringing cooler surges into the midwest and New England. Cooler ocean temperatures surrounding New England has also helped prevent hot weather to become established here in New England.

This is how I envisioned this summer pattern evolving here in New England. With the right mix of brief warm periods, punctuated by cooler ones, a summer that is more typical for us here in New England would be on the way. I do find it fascinating that during the warmest period of the year, Mother Nature continues to send cool surges into the midwest and New England.

This past winter was a game changer. I’m not saying we can expect every winter to be like this in the future. What I am saying is that the earth, atmosphere and climate are transitioning into a cooler period of weather in the coming years.

This does not mean we are not going to have hot summers in the coming years. Just as we had some tough winters during the warm cycle, it does not mean these will end. The climate doesn’t work that way. Even though I believe a cooler regime is on the way, I’m not that uneducated to realize that periods of warm weather will occur.

There have been some global warming scientists that were claiming that snow would be a thing of the past in northern climates. Boston’s Logan Airport seasonal snowfall average has actually increased over the last 20 years.

Why am I so confident of a cooler climate ahead? Well, certainly this is a very complex matter, and nothing is guaranteed. Only the top meteorologists and climatologists in the world understand the true factors leading up to this change. What I do know, is that there are three major factors going on here.

First, the sun is going into a Dalton minimum cycle of very little sun spot activity. Second, the Atlantic Ocean will be transitioning from positive (warm), into negative phase (cool) during the next several years. Third, increased volcanic activity, which will block the full effect of the sun’s radiation reaching the earth. Volcanism is somewhat of a wildcard. Some scientists believe we have been in a dormant cycle of volcanic activity, and believe this is about to change.

Many other things also come into play, however the two biggest players to watch is the sun and the ocean. If the sun cools just slightly, this would have a profound effect on keeping the oceans warm. If the sun spot activity does diminish in the coming years as forecasted, you can expect more winters like last year, perhaps even worse, on the way in the coming years.

Last week I mentioned that we may have our first heat wave this week. Well, As I mentioned above, it appears as if the full effect of this heat wave is going to get pinched off by a cold front pushing in from Canada on Thursday. As a result, I am now expecting only one day of 90 degree temperatures this week. After that, cooler (not cold) weather will arrive for the balance of the week.

I still believe, our best weather of the summer is yet to come. August looks like it will be a pleasant month, with many dry days, and warm temperatures. This type of pattern may continue into September.

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. Not the best, but not a washout by any means. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Look for a good amount of sun today in the Boston area, with increasing sun down towards the Cape. Temperatures will hold in the 70’s along the coast, and maybe touch 80 further inland. Tonight will be dry regionwide, with lows mainly in the 60’s. With the change in airmass, some low clouds and fog may try to develop across the Cape.

Look for somewhat warmer and more humid weather to push into New England tomorrow, with highs mainly in the mid 80’s. With lots of hazy sun, and no rain, it should be a great beach day. Tuesday night will be warm and muggy, with more fog possible down the Cape.

Watch for mid-summer conditions on Wednesday, with hot and very humid weather, highs will be in the lower 90s’s, except lower 80’s down the Cape. Head to the beach! Watch for clouds to increase at night, with a chance of some showers and thunderstorms moving in late.

Thursday may start with some showers and thunderstorms with slowly improving weather from west to east during the day. It may take all day for the clouds and showers to clear the Cape.

Expect mostly sunny and dry weather to be the rule for Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s.

Right now, I have to call for clouds to be increasing on Sunday. The way things have been going, I have to forecast for some showers moving in during the late afternoon. I hope this changes!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing in on my forecast for the month of August! I will also have your vacation forecast, and also a tropical update. In the meantime, lousy or typical, get out there and enjoy the rest of the summer!

-Thanks for reading!-

Pete

“Keep An Eye To The Sky”… 7/14/14

Good morning! If you had vacation last week, you picked a winner! The nice summery weather even extended throughout this past weekend, with temperatures mainly in the 80’s, and only moderate amounts of humidity. If this week is your vacation, better plan for some indoor activities at least through Wednesday.

Where is the time going? We are already at the mid-point of meteorological summer! Other than the weather on the 4th, I think many folks would agree this has been a very pleasant summer so far. Nearly every weekend since about Mother’s Day has featured mainly sunny and dry conditions! While June averaged near normal temperatures, July has actually been warmer than normal so far.

We were also treated to a beautiful full “Thunder Moon” Saturday evening. This full moon was also called a “supermoon.” The reason being is that the full moon occurred during perigee, or its closest pass to earth during its orbit. In fact, scientists have estimated that the moon is approximately 31,000 miles closer to us on this date! The moon also appears 30% brighter, and 14% bigger on this night. If you missed this one, there will be another one on August 10th next month!

I was lucky enough to be at Millennium Park in West Roxbury to watch the sunset…and what a sunset it was. It certainly gave credence to the phrase, “sunset at night, sailors delight.” A fine Sunday followed suite, with sunny, warm weather for most!

While the sun faded in the west, I was surprised when I turned around and saw the supermoon rising in the east! With the haze in the air, the moon had a orange color to it, adding to the beauty.

We are in the midst of the warmest period of the year. As mentioned in previous posts, our warmest time of the year here in the Northern Hemisphere runs from the beginning of July, until about mid-August.

So far, we have had some hot days, but no official heat waves as of yet. An official heat wave here in New England consists of experiencing three consecutive days with 90 degree plus temperatures.

Up to this point, my summer forecast seems to be working out fairly well. I forecasted a very warm summer, but not particularly a hot one. I also said we will experience less 90 degree days than previous years. So far, we officially have hit 90 degrees three times here in Boston. Keep in mind Boston averages 90 degrees approximately 13 times in an average summer. Also keep in mind that the extremes make the average, so this number can greatly vary from year to year.

Looking ahead, I do see another shift in the pattern once again after this week. It appears that the upper air pattern may retrograde westward, maintaining a trough of low pressure in the midwest. Consequently, a Bermuda like high pressure may build westward into New England, bringing hotter than normal weather once again to the region for the last half of July. So keep your air conditioners handy! Will Boston endure our first heat wave? I say the chances look good from now.

How about storms and precipitation? As a matter of fact, we actually do have a very unusual turbulant situation about to unfold over the next few days around here. An unusual cold deep vortex is charging out of Canada into the middle of the nation. This is going to set up a battle zone right across our region for the next few days. Within this boundary, short waves of energy will be igniting areas of tropical like downpours, flooding, and possibly some severe thunderstorms.

Please listen to local meteorologists or the National Weather Service if threatening weather appears imminent. Later in the week, this boundary will push offshore, with dry, sunny weather returning possibly through next weekend!

Now for the tropical update. Currently, there is a area of disturbed weather centered southeast of Bermuda. At this point, I am not expecting this to become a threat to New England. However, it may develop nonetheless and threaten marine interests out in the Atlantic. As I have been saying, this appears to be a hot spot for development this hurricane season. Later in the season, a tropical like storm could easily develop in this area. With the current pattern, the east coast of the U.S. including New England could be at risk for a storm to strike. I will keep you updated as the season progresses with this potential.

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10, weighted heavily for the nice weather to return Thursday through Saturday. For today, expect some early morning showers to dissipate. Hazy sun during midday will warm temperatures into the mid 80’s. If we get enough hazy sun, this will only act to destabilize the atmosphere, igniting severe thunderstorms to pop during the late afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will contain vivid lightning, hail, and torrential rains. Please listen to local forecasters if severe weather threatens. Watch for thunderstorms and heavy showers to continue Monday night, with areas of dense fog and muggy conditions regionwide.

Expect similar weather for Tuesday, with maybe some sunny breaks, but also the chance for showers and thunderstorms to fire up at any time, with localized street flooding. As the cold front slowly pushes off the coast, a wave of low pressure may enhance the rainfall in eastern Massachusetts during Wednesday, making this day possibly the dampest day of them all. It will turn noticeably cooler as well, with highs only in the low 70’s. Watch for slowly improving weather later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Expect beautiful weather to return Thursday with highs mainly in the 70’s. Friday will also be a stellar day, with sunshine and warm temperatures regionwide. I am expecting this type of weather to also continue into Saturday with temperatures warming into the lower 80’s.

Right now, I’m sorry to say that Sunday looks iffy. A disturbance will pass south of New England during the day, so I can’t rule out some clouds and a chance of some showers, especially in southern New England and the Cape. This is not a lock, I just saw it pop up on the computer models, so I had to forecast it.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring the possibility for our first heat wave. I will also have your weekly summer vacation forecast. In the mean time, don’t let the hazy sun fool you into thinking it’s going to be nice today. Sometimes, looks can be deceiving!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

More Heat, More Thunder…& Cake? 7/7/14

Hi Folks! Just back from a mini vacation, so this is going to be a short one. I think this is how the saying goes, “you can’t have your cake & eat it too.” In my case, I tried my best to do just that this past weekend, I even got to have my cake celebrating my mom’s birthday!

I hope everyone enjoyed their 4th of July holiday weekend. If it wasn’t for an unwelcomed, untimely guest named “Arthur” we would been able to just that, have our cake & eat it too. The weather was sunny and hot & humid before Arthur, then the rainy day on the 4th, then sunny and dry immediately after Arthur.

Looking back at the records, the timing of this storm is almost incomprehensible. It’s not that it has never rained on the 4th, it’s more because it was a hurricane that washed us out. As far as I could see, this was the first hurricane in record keeping to sideswipe New England around the 4th of July!

Hurricane Arthur disrupted many this 4th of July, but thankfully it’s bite was worse than it’s bark. Many locations in eastern Mass. did receive between 2 and 4″ of much needed rain. Some areas near the south coast from New Bedford to Plymouth, got soaked with between 5 and 7″ of flooding rain. Yes, the 4th was truly a washout!

Looking back, I was pretty happy with the way my forecast turned out for the week from last Monday. The 4th was always iffy, but I was confident on a beautiful weekend to follow! If it hadn’t rained last Friday, we would of been on a phenominal good weather streak!

I have to say, local officials including the National Weather Service seemed to have done their best in making all the necessary changes to accomadate the Boston Pop’s concert and fireworks show. I could see what they were up against, and if it wasn’t for today’s technology, this could of been a disaster. Timing is everything in life, and this year, Mother Nature had her own show on a timetable.

Consider this a warning shot from Mother Nature. WeatherBell Analytics expert Joe Bastardi believes this area near the east coast will be the breeding ground for tropical activity this summer into the fall. I see nothing to disagree with his forecast. After a couple quiet seasons, we will need to be on guard this year. Water temperatures are boiling off the mid-Atlantic coast this summer.

As the season matures, and water temperatures increase over the New England waters, hurricanes may track closer to our coast, threatening us with a serious tropical type storm.In addition, as I mentioned in previous posts, the summer pattern is now beginning to settle in, and it looks ominous.

With a deep trough of low pressure plunging into the midwest, a Bermuda High type of ridge off the east coast, the steering currents may set up just right to capture a storm down the coast & pull it up into New England. This is what I am concerned about this season. I will keep monitoring this potential hurricane threat for you, as we move deeper into the season.

Now for your weekly summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week another 8 out of 10. Today is over, so I move on. For the rest of tonight, expect fading showers and muggy conditions, lows will be in the 60’s to even lower 70’s.

Tuesday is going to be sunny & hot, with highs 90 to 95 across much of the Boston area. If you are down the Cape, you will wake up to some low clouds & fog. Later, this will burn off and still be on the windy side, with highs in the lower 80’s.

For the rest of us, there is a chance of some afternoon and evening thunderstorms. They will be scattered, but because of the heat, some may be severe, so please listen to the National Weather Service if these storms threaten your area.

Expect another hot and muggy day on Wednesday, with highs near 90. There is a better chance that many of us will see an afternoon thunderstorm, so please be aware of this.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday night and early Thursday. Otherwise, expect clearing during the day on Thursday, with less muggy weather moving in. High temperatures will still be warm, into the low 80’s.

Friday and Saturday will feature beautiful weather, with sunny skies and dry humidity levels. There will be some sea breezes, with highs in the upper 70’s along the beaches, and lower 80’s inland.

Right now, Sunday may start dry, but some afternoon clouds may yield some showers. Hopefully that system will slow down enough to salvage Sunday as well. Highs will once again be seasonable, mainly in the lower 80’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will scoping out the pattern to see if any heat waves our in our future. It is July after all! I will also have your weekly vacation forecast, as well as a tropical outlook. In the meantime, heat & thunder first this week, then the weather will be a piece of cake!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Building Heat,Thunder, Surfs Up! 6/30/14

Good morning! To say that we have been on a weather role is an understatement! I believe the past 5 weekends have featured sunny, warm & dry weather. This past weekend was no exception, as many folks enjoyed another sun filled weekend with warm temperatures and very low dewpoints.

I also took advantage of the nice weather yesterday, spending the afternoon with a few of my buddies at one my all time favorite spots, Nantasket Beach! Maybe it’s the memories of spending so much time there when I was a kid. Maybe it was Paragon Park. Or, it could be because it’s so close to Boston. For whatever reason, time has come full circle, and I enjoyed another day at this priceless beach. It doesn’t hurt to have one of my friends living right on the beach, either!

I feel very fortunate that on any given weekend, I can go visit friends and family anywhere from Maine, to New Hampshire, Nanatasket Beach, and also Cape Cod!

Today, we conclude one third of meteorological summer…where is the time going? So, how has the weather been so far this summer? Well, I would say it’s working out about how I envisioned it. June turned out to be a bit warmer than normal, but certainly not hot.

In fact, Boston still has not registered a 90 degree day. On average, Boston reaches 90 by June 9th. We have had periods of warm weather, puncuated by stretches of cool and dry conditions. As suspected, with the cold ocean temperatures, summer would get off to a somewhat slow start.

As the season matures and the water temperatures begin to warm, I’m expecting the summer to become warmer the deeper we get into the season. You can expect August to be the warmest month on average this summer.

This also goes in line with my summer forecast, calling for not as many 90 degree days as we have had the past several years. Again, this does not mean it won’t get hot. We are going to get hot as early as this week! It just means we are not going to have above average number of 90 degree days this summer. Average is about 13 or 14 days. I’m expecting between 7 and 12 days at 90 or better. If it gets real warm, we may come close to being right about average in the end.

With June nearly over, we now turn our attention to July. July is, on average, the hottest month of the year. On average, the warmest period of the year runs from about July 1st to about August 15th. Last year, Boston recorded nearly a full years worth of 90 degree days in a few weeks! Our daily maximum averages warm up to close to 84 degrees, with lows about 64. Precipitation averages about 3 and a half inches, mainly coming by means of showers and afternoon thunderstorms.

What does this July look like? Well, it’s going to get off to a hot start, with a couple 90 degree days right off the bat! In fact, I am expecting a warmer than normal month. Not as hot as last July, but still warm enough. We typically average about four 90 degree days, I am expecting between 4 and 6 this year.

I have mentioned this before in the past, anytime you forecast above normal temperatures in the hottest month of the year anyway, it’s going to feel hotter, just because the averages are so high to begin with. It’s similar with the month of January. When it’s colder than the averages in the coldest month of the year, it’s going to feel even colder than any other month.

How about drinks for our lawns and gardens? Precipitation is always a tricky call, especially in the summer months. Areas of showers and thunderstorms can leave one community plush green, and another dry as a desert. I believe there will be times of heavy showers and thunderstorms, bringing many areas to about average amounts of rain for the month. For whatever reason, eastern Massachusetts may continue with dryer than normal conditions heading into August.

Many folks have been asking me how the weather is looking for the 4th of July, coming up this Friday. Because the 4th falls on a Friday this year, many people are taking either very long weekends, or a full vacation this week.

As I mentioned before, no one wants nice weather more than I do for the 4th. I keep looking at the computer models looking for right answers. The week will certainly start out promising, with a couple days of hot, beach weather on the way. However, as we move closer to the fourth, a cold front will begin pressing into New England. Earlier, this front appeared as if it was going to push far enough off the coast just in time to make for a beautiful day on the 4th.

After reviewing the computer models this morning, this does not appear to be the case anymore. In fact, with a stalled front in the area, some areas may be dealing with flash flooding come Friday! In addition, believe it or not, our first tropical storm of the season, named Arthur, will be developing down off the southeast coast. At this point, I don’t believe this storm will directly strike New England.

There still is a possibilty that some of the tropical moisture gets drawn up into the stalled front in our region, resulting in heavier showers. As it is, Arthur may actually intensify into a category 1 hurricane as it passes southeast of the Cape. Even without a direct hit, large ground swells may eminate from the storms center. This could result in large breakers, dangerous rip currents, especially on south side beaches of the Cape, such as Chatham, the National Seashore, and Nantucket.

Later in the weekend, these ground swells could reach beaches along eastern Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. Please respect the power of the ocean and be careful!!

Now for your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect building heat today, with mainly sunny skies, and highs between 85 and 90 across the region. Look for muggy weather to slowly build into the region tonight. It will remain warm with lows in the 60’s.

July 1st will start out hot & on the muggy side, with highs reaching the lower 90’s. Tuesday night will be muggy and warm, with lows only dropping back into the lower 70’s. Wednesday will be steamy & hot, with highs between 90 and 95 regionwide. Some areas may receive a thunderstorm Wednesday night, but I would say 90% of the region will just be stuffy and warm, with lows in the lower 70’s.

Watch for more clouds on Thursday, this may keep temperatures from reaching 90. It still will be warm & muggy, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. If we get a decent amount of sun, temperatures may still make a run at 90. Look for a better chance of some thunderstorms on Thursday night, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Unfortunately, look for cloudy weather on the 4th. If we get some breaks of sun, this will ignite showers and thunderstorms across the region. As mentioned earlier, some of these storms will produce flash flooding. Best case scenerio, front pushes off the coast during the evening, allowing for clearing skies and cooler temperatures in time for the fireworks. However, I would say there is still about a 50% chance that there still will be areas of rain during Friday night.

Don’t give up just yet, in situations like this, there’s always some surprises when some areas don’t see much if any rain!

In any event, Hurricane Arthur will be passing southeast of the Cape Saturday night, as this storm passes, it will do two things. First, it will increase the waves and dangerous rip currents. Second, it will pull the front off shore, drying us out for what looks to be a sunnier, drier and cooler weekend ahead.

I do have to say that this is a very complicated weather situation setting up for the end of the week. I may update this forecast if conditions warrant.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be discussing about the increasing threat I see about a tropical storm or hurricane striking New England this season. I also will have your weekly vacation forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the heat, then get ready for Mother Nature’s fireworks!

Have a safe & happy 4th of July everyone!

Pete