In A Nice Weather Groove! 6/23/14

Hello there! Welcome to summer 2014! We have made it through another long, cold winter, and a somewhat chilly, damp spring season. The summer solstice officially arrived Saturday morning at 6:51 AM. On this date, we experience the longest day of sunlight of the entire year! From this point forward, we will begin to lose daylight, as the earth begins to tilt away from the sun.

Not to worry, though! Because of the phenominon called latent heating, our warmest temperatures of the year still lies ahead! In fact, starting around July 1st until about the middle of August, our warmest temperatures of the year, on average, will occur.

This is the time of year I always like to joke around with my sister. She doesn’t think it’s fair that when the summer solstice arrives, the days actually start to get shorter. I feel the same way when the winter solstice arrives on December 22nd. After that day, the days start to lengthen. I like to tell her that it’s all down hill from here, and that winter is right around the corner! Lucky for her, this is not true.

Yes, the days will begin to shorten, but as I mentioned above, our warmest time of the year still is in front of us. In fact, our warm weather normally stretches well into September for us here in the Boston area. Because of latent cooling, it takes longer for the Atlantic Ocean to our east to cool off in the fall, compared to the land. This keeps coastal locations much milder than inland areas deep into the autumn.

So what about summer 2014? About a month ago, I officially published my summer outlook. Knowing how quickly patterns can change, I tried something new with my seasonal forecast, and requested if I could publish the forecast before the meteorological start of summer, but with an update when it arrives on its astronomical date. I will do the same for the upcoming winter forecast. This gives me a chance to give you, my loyal reader, the best possible forecast that money can buy. In this case, the blog is free, so it’s a win win for everyone, unless I get the forecast wrong! However, it also gives me the chance to review more data, and to allow for any major changes that I may see.

After reviewing all of the meteorological and natural data that I have access to, I am happy to report that my original forecast made back in on May 25th, looks good to me! I am still expecting a very warm summer, but not as hot as the past several.

This past Wednesday was a good example of how I believe this summer is going to go. Many forecasts, including my own were calling for a hot day, with high temperatures reaching the low 90’s. As it turned out, most towns never made it out of the 80’s!

Forecasting temperatures is tricky, and many variables can alter the forecast either way. Many times, Mother Nature has the final word on how hot or cold it’s going to be. In this case, I will take it as a sign that although 90’s were predicted, a cooler regime is in place, and 90’s may be tougher to come by this summer, than recent years.

This does not mean it’s not going to happen! Boston’s Logan Airport normally reaches 90 degrees approximately 13 times on average during the summer. Some years are more than others. Last year, we had well above that number. This summer, I am expecting between 7 and 12 days of temperatures at 90 degrees or better. I don’t see the Bermuda High pressure area, so dominant last summer, to be as big a player for us this summer. I also believe, unlike last summer, the deeper we move into the season, the warmer it will become. This means August may be our warmest most month of the summer this year.

I am fairly confident on a somewhat cooler summer this year. The one thing I am not too confident about is how much is it going to rain. Looking at the big picture, it still looks like we are in a similar pattern that we had over this past winter, just the summer version. Yes, it has rained, but it still has a somewhat dry look to it to me. Just this past weekend dewpoint temperatures, which measures the amount of moisture in the air, were near desert levels! It seems for weeks now that NOAA has been calling for above normal amounts of rain for southern New England, only to have it fizzle out when push comes to shove. I am forecasting a summer which features drier conditions the deeper we move into August, raising concerns of moderate drought conditions once again showing up, as we move toward fall.

Speaking of long range forecast, we are now in range for an early look at the 4th of July forecast! I’m sure no one can argue that we have been in a nice weather groove! I have mentioned this before, the weather goes in cycles and wavelength patterns. Lately, we have been in a nice groove, with any rain or storms coming during the middle of the week, only to have the nice weather returning for the weekends!

Can we continue this nice weather groove? Well, at least for the short term, I believe we can! In fact, this week may be a carbon copy of last week, just a bit warmer if anything else. My concern arises during the week of the 4th. Believe me, no one is looking forward to the 4th of July holiday weekend more than I am. I love going down the Cape and spending time with family and friends relaxing and enjoying the holiday festivities. I have been keeping an eye on the long range forecast for quite some time now.

Most computer models keep the nice weather groove going into next week into the holiday weekend. This would mean some rain on Wednesday and Thursday, only to clear out just in time for the holiday weekend. However, there is one computer model, the U.S. (GFS), painting a different picture. This model pushes a cold front towards New England, then stalls it close to coast. This type of scenerio would result in frequent showers and thunderstorms for a good part of the weekend, including the holiday itself.

When we blend all of the models together, called ensembles, they keep the groove going with beautiful weather for the holiday weekend! Right now, I am siding with the ensemble models, and my long range outlook from now calls for fair & warmer weather for the 4th! I may be biased, however, and will surely have an important update on this forecast come next Monday…cross your fingers!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer vacation and outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Expect mostly sunny, light winds, and comfortable levels of humidity for today. In other words, close to a “10.” High temperatures will top off near 80 inland, and lower to mid 70’s along the coast, with a light seabreeze developing. If you are at the beach, or in the sun for any amount of time, make sure to apply sunscreen today. The sun’s angle is at it’s strongest point, being so close to the solstice, and can burn you quickly! Tonight will feature dry weather, with some clouds on the increase. It will be mild, with lows in the 60’s.

Expect a mixture of sun and clouds on Tuesday. It will not be as bright as today, and it will also start to become more muggy. High temperatures will be similar to today with highs near 80. Look for the humidity to continue to increase Tuesday night, with lows in the 60’s again.

Wednesday will be a very muggy and warm day, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. With the higher humidity levels, and a cold front pushing into the area, watch for showers and thunderstorms to push through the area. Some of these showers could contain heavy downpours and thunder, and possibly some hail.

These showers may linger into Wednesday night and early Thursday. After that, skies should begin to clear later Thursday, with cooler and drier weather moving in. Right now, Friday and Saturday look to feature fair and dry weather, with highs in the lower 80’s. At this point, I will go for nice weather to continue into Sunday. It should turn warmer with highs in the middle 80’s. There is a small chance for some showers on Sunday, but I will ignore that possibility for now.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will focus in on your official 4th of July forecast! I will also review our weather for June, and look ahead at to what kind of weather we can expect for the month of July. In the meantime, I may not be the best dancer out there, but I can dig this nice weather groove we’re in!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Summer Heat, Solstice, Hurricanes! 6/16/14

Hello! I hope everyone had a peaceful Father’s Day. Whether you still have your Dad, or he has passed away to heaven, it was a nice day to remember, and be grateful for having a father in your life.

As for the weather, I was very pleased the forecast this past weekend turned out for the better! My sister held a rather large outdoor grauduation party for my niece this past Saturday. The day started out very shaky, with fog, drizzle and even some rain showers. However, as luck would have it, skies began to clear just in a nick of time, leading to a very pleasant afternoon. Believe me, there are times when I make a forecast from a week out, that turns out for the worse. The weather for Father’s Day speaks for itself. With temperatures near 80, very low humidity, it was probably as close to a “10” that you could ever get!

Moving forward, we have many changes coming up for this week. Studying the weather charts this morning, it appears there’s something on the table for everyone. If you like summer heat, we have some of that on the way. If you are a fan of yesterday’s weather, then I have more of that for you as well towards the end of the week. In fact, you actually may think it may be a bit too cool for this time of the year this come this weekend!

Speaking of this weekend, we have the summer solstice arriving early Saturday morning! Last year, a heat wave greeted us as the solstice arrived. This year, I’m expecting a feel of fall in the air come Saturday morning!

Does this mean a cooler than normal summer is on the way? Well, not necessarily! However, Mother Nature does love to throw signs at us as to what the coming season may be like. A feel of fall on the first day of summer is not a good sign for a hot summer on the way.

My original summer forecast published back in May called for a cooler summer than previous years. This does not mean it’s not going to get hot! In fact, the next couple of days are going to turn quite toasty around here. Boston averages thirteen 90 degree days in an average summer. I am forecasting between 7 and 12 days of 90 degree + days this summer. Last year we had nearly 20! I am still reviewing new information for this summer. Next week, I’m going to update my summer forecast just in case I see any major changes coming.

One thing I am noticing in this early summer pattern, is a persistant trough of low pressure in the center of the country. This is the same place that had this past years brutal winter. This is very important for us here in New England. If this trough of low pressure were to persist, it may put us here in New England at risk of a tropical type storm or even a hurricane this summer. If a Bermuda type high pressure were to develop off the east coast, in conjunction with the trough to our west, this would create a channel, or path for a storm to ride up the coast into New England.

I remember last summer, I forecasted the same thing. Some people would say, Pete, if you continue to forecast this every year, eventually, you’ll get it right. I am not going to argue against this statement. However, I will tell you this, New England is way overdue for a hurricane striking the region. As we move deeper into the season, the pattern does look like it could steer a storm in our direction.

I do not wish for one of these storms to hit the region. It would cause structural destruction, flooding, and possibly loss of life. With all that being said, I feel that it’s better for me to keep everyone aware of the potential for a hurricane to strike the region, than not.

So what do the experts think? With last year turning into a dud of a season, meteorologists are thinking this year will be more acive year. On average, there are 14 named storms during any given season. This year, they are expecting a season slightly below average, with around 12 tropical storms, with aproximately 6 turning into hurricanes, and two becoming major hurricanes.

This is a very tricky business! Last year, they were expecting a very active year, only to have it turn into one of the least active years on record! There is an El Nino developing this year. Normally El Nino’s prohibit hurricane development. However, the strength of the oncoming El Nino is questionable, leading to many questions as to how strong this season is going to become.

My own forecast calls for a season slightly above average, with 12 to 16 named storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes, and 3 or 4 turning into major hurricnes. I am not expecting El Nino to become strong enough to prohibit storm development this year. There will be 1 or 2 strikes along the east coast this summer. As mentioned earlier, we have to be on gaurd here in New England as well!

Back in 1992, category 5 Andrew was one of only a few storms that year. Andrew cut right through Florida, causing massive destruction.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Expect beautiful weather for the rest of today, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures holding in the lower to mid 70’s, especially along the coast with a seabreeze. In addition, there will be no humidity today, so it will feel quite refreshing! Tonight will feature increasing clouds, with lows near 60. Very late tonight there will be a chance of a few showers moving through.

Watch for Tuesday to turn more muggy, along with a mixture of sun and clouds. There may be a spot shower or two, but I am not expecting a washout. It will be warmer, with highs in the lower 80’s. Tuesday night will be muggy and summerlike, with lows mainly in the 60’s.

Look for an increasing west to southwest wind to transport the warmest weather of the year on Wednesday. Watch for temperatures to push very close to 90, along with humid conditions. Later in the afternoon, be on the lookout for a chance of a thunderstorm or two. After any evening storms, look for drier weather to move in overnight, with lows near 60.

Thursday will be a warm, sunny day, with highs in the lower 80’s, with drier conditions. Thurdsay night will be pleasant, with clear skies, lows will be near 60.

For the period of Friday through Sunday, I am expecting pleasant weather to continue, with mostly sunny skies, along with some passing clouds. It will be cooler and drier, with highs mainly in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s. It may feel a bit more like September, but no worries, summer would of only begun early Saturday morning at 6:51 AM!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be posting my final update for summer 2014. I will also have your official forecast for the first week of summer. I may also attempt to give a quick peek into the 4th of July holiday weekend, just for planning purposes. In the meantime, get the beach attire ready, but keep the light jacket handy just in case!

Thanks for checking in today!

Pete

Warm…But Not Hot! 6/9/14

Good morning! I was very pleased how well last week’s forecast turned out for everybody! With all of the graduations, weddings and beach plans, the weather over this past weekend could not have been any more cooperative! Yes, it was a rainy Thursday, but this cleared out nicely just in time for a very summery weekend.

I personally attended my niece’s high school graduation yesterday afternoon out in Wayland. With mostly sunny skies, temperatures responded making it feel quite warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. A weak and feeble seabreeze kept the beaches about 5 to 7 degrees cooler, but this is why we go to the beach, right?

Speaking of seabreeze’s, many times we here meteorologists talk about the, but what exactly are they? A seabreeze can come in two different scenerios. Each scenerio has the same net result, cooling beaches and adjacent inland areas off.

The first type of seabreeze is the type we call local seabreeze’s, the type we had today. This is caused when lighter, warm air heats up quicker than the ocean. As the warm air rises, cooler, dense, heavier air rushes in with a breeze off of the ocean to displace the missing air. This can result in temperatures some 10 degrees cooler at the beaches than from inland areas. As we move deeper into the summer, sea breeze’s become less pronounced as the ocean temperatures begin to warm.

The second type of a seabreeze is caused by a low or high pressure system. As the winds blow counter clockwise around a storm, or clockwise around a high pressure area, areas along the coast, and sometimes quite a distance inland can feel the effects of this type of seabreeze.

Family and friends continue to ask me whether we are going to have a hot summer this year. To this question, I keep referring them to go read my post written back on 5/26/14. Then, of course, I tell them anyway, because I love to chat about the weather, regardless!

The question is valid. However, as I explained in my summer forecast, I am leaning towards a cooler summer than the past several. This does not mean we have a cold summer on the way! Yesterday was a good example of this, with many areas in the mid to upper 80’s! As of right now, I am expecting a warm summer, not hot.

Because things can suddenly change when the solstice arrives, I reserve the right to update my forecast at that time two week’s from today. At that point, I will have enough infomation to make my final call on summer 2014.

A good example of this was just last summer. Most of the spring was cool, right up until we arrived to the summer solstice. However, on that day, a simmering heat wave surged into the area, leading us up to a brutally hot July, when half the days were 90+.

This type of heat that arrives near the solstice can feel exceptionally hot. This is when the sun is at its highest angle towards the northern hemisphere. This trajectory, along with maximum amount of daylight, can lead to some of our hottest feeling weather. Fortunately, my forecast warned folks of this type of heat, so at least my forecast wasn’t cooked!

Moving forward, we have more nice weather on the way this week. Again, it’s not going to be perfect, but it’s better than the alternative! June can still be a fickle month to predict nice weather. This week will be no exception. If you are on vacation this week, I would rate it a 6 out of 10. I’m not expecting any washouts, but there will be a couple inclement days. Right now, I would say that, Wednesday, Thursday, and all of next weekend look to be the best days. I see no hot weather this week, but warm enough to enjoy outdoor activities. I am expecting mostly seasonal temperatures this week, cooler than today, with highs mostly in the 70’s.

With all that in mind, here is your weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. As mentioned above, I am rating this week a 6 out of 10. It’s a bordeline 7, but I will go conservative, due to the chance of some showers and thunderstorms.

Look for the best weather today over eastern Massachusetts, with mainly dry conditions. Some sun will greet you early this morning, then expect more clouds during the afternoon. If you live north of Boston, sun may linger well into the afternoon. I’m not expecting too much rain, but I can’t rule out a scattered shower or two, especially from Boston south and west. Highs will be cooler than yesterday, with temperatures mainly in the upper 70’s.

Monday night will feature some showers moving through the area, with lows mainly in the 60’s. Evening activities may be affected by this rain, it’s a wait and see situation.

Tuesday should feature a continuation of a chance of some showers during the day, with highs mainly in the upper 70’s. There may be a few more showers Tuesday evening, otherwise expect drier weather under clearing skies.

Wednesday and Thursday should both feature more sun than clouds with drier and slightly cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 70’s. Watch for building clouds on Thursday night, with a chance of showers moving into the area, lows will mainly be in the 60’s.

Friday may be on the unsettled side, with showers in the morning, then a break, and possibly more late day showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Temperatures should be reasonable, with highs in the 70’s once again.

Right now, if everything goes according to plan, this system will sweep off the coast sometime Friday evening, setting us up for a sunny, dry weekend! Temperatures should also respond with highs near 80 on Saturday, and maybe even a touch warmer on Sunday!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will once again highlight your weekly vacation forecast. I will also be fine tuning your summer forecast, as well as have your beach and boating forecast.

I also be discussing about the upcoming hurricane season, which began on June 1st. In the meantime, enjoy the seasonable temperatures this week, you never know what can happen when we reach the summer solstice!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

A Taste of Summer…6/2/14

Hello! Welcome to meteorological summer! Yes, according to the meteorologic calander, summer began yesterday, June 1st. Astronomical summer does not officially arrive until June 21st. To make record keeping cleaner, meteorologists break down the seasons into four quarters.

Did the weather follow suite? Well, not exactly. All in all, it felt a bit more like September than June. True, it was bright and sunny most of the weekend, but it certainly wasn’t beach weather.

The reason? Well, you can blame our cold winter for that. The Atlantic Ocean to our east is still trying to recover from abnormally cold readings over this past winter.

As is the case many times in personal relationships, Mother Nature also sends mixed signals with our weather patterns. You may think now that we’re in June, it will be instantly summer. This is not always the case, at least here in eastern New England. The reason is a phenomina, which I talk about quite frequently, called latent heating and cooling.

During the spring, the land heats up quicker than the ocean. With all that heat rising quickly, cold dense air comes rushing inland from the ocean. For us here in eastern New England, it makes for quite chilly weather more times than not during spring. This is why real summery weather does not arrive here in eastern areas until after the summer solstice.

In the autumn, the opposite effect happens. The ocean cools off more slowly than the land, keeping folks who live near the coast warmer deeper into the autumn than people who live across the interior.

So what kind of weather can we expect this June? Well, June can be a very tricky month to forecast. As I mentioned above, folks are chomping at the bit for real summer weather to start up! Unfortunately, Mother Nature has her own agenda. Again, ocean temperatures play such a major role in our weather here in New England, especially along the coast.

So far, our ocean temperatures are running a good 5 to 10 degrees below where they should be at this time of the year. This past weekend was a good example of how the ocean influenced our weather. While the interior warmed well up into the 70’s, temperatures at the beaches were a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler, due to the onshore winds.

I am expecting more periods of cooler and wetter weather as we move through this June, at least until we reach the summer solstice. As I mentioned above, June can be a very fickle month. Building summer heat can still clash with leftover cool air from the spring, resulting in bouts of inclement weather. Cooler than normal ocean temperatures can further complicate matters, keeping coastal locations cooler than one would think.

Other years, such as last June for example, summer heat can build into New England, resulting in broiling early season hot weather. Many times, this is a sign for persistant heat for the upcoming summer, as the patterns repeat. This is what I am keeping a close eye on as we move through June. Exactly where these bubbles of hot weather set up, is where the hot weather is most likely going to be for the balance of the summer. So far, this bubble of heat seems to want to set up shop in the Pacific Northwest this year.

For this reason, I am forecasting a cooler and wetter June this year. Typically, Boston receives close to 4″ of rain during this month. Average high temperatures start out around 72 degrees, then warm up to 82 degrees by months end. As I mentioned in last week’s post, I will then update the summer forecast for New England when we officially reach the solstice.

So far, I am calling for a cooler summer this year, than in years past. At his point, I am still expecting between 7 and 12 90 degree days here in Boston this summer. This is slightly cooler than a average summer here in Boston, and much cooler than the past several.

The good news is, at least for the first couple of days to the week, winds are going to blow more offshore. This will push a taste of summer weather closer to the coast, with temperatures approaching 80!

Unfortunately, cooler and unsettled weather is going to return this week, with several periods of showers & thunderstorms. If all things work out, drier and warmer weather will begin to move into the region come this weekend. I’m sure many folks would exchange to have some rain during the week, then have a sunny, warm weekend!

This type of weather this week is actually very important. Setting up patterns of longwave troughs and ridges is very important this time of year. If the pattern sets up right, inclement weather systems move through during the week, only to be followed by ridging and fair weather for the weekend, would keep the majority of folks happy.

In years past, we have had the opposite, with rainy weekends, and sunny, dry weather during the week. Nobody cares or needs that kind of pattern!

Now for your weekly summertime vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect warmer weather today, with alot of sun, and temperatures mainly in the 80’s. If you go to the beach today, expect temperatures to mainly be in the 70’s with a light seabreeze. Look for dry weather tonight, with lows mainly in the 50’s.

Tuesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. It will become breezy and a bit warmer, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 80’s. Watch for a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday night. It will be warm and on the muggy side, with lows in the lower 60’s.

Wednesday will be muggy, with numerous showers and thunderstorms around, some rain may be heavy with localized street flooding. Highs will be mainly in the 70’s.

Watch for cooler weather, with a continued threat of rain on Thursday. Northeast winds will make for a chiily day with highs only near 60. Most of the heavy rain should move out by Thursday night, but conditions will remain damp and cool.

Watch for some improvement on Friday, with considerable clouds and some scattered showers, along with some splashes of sun. It certainly won’t be a beach day, but it won’t be a washout either. It will be slightly warmer, with temperatures back up into the lower 70’s.

Expect improving weather for the upcoming weekend, with more sun than clouds, and temperatures close to 80 each day. If I were to pick a better beach day of the two, I would probably go with Sunday at this point.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor our developing summer patterns. I will also have your new weekly summer vacation forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the taste of summer the next couple of days, hopefully it will turn into a main encore later in the season!

Thanks for checking in!

Pete

Summer 2014: Cooler!! 5/26/14

Good morning! Happy Memorial Day! Lately, I have been hearing some folks exclaiming, “what’s so happy about Memorial Day.” Well, when you really stop and think about it, not too much. When I was a younger, Memorial Day was a time when friends got together to celebrate the start of summer, go to the beach, have parties, and eat lots of summertime food.

Now that I’m older, the meaning of the holiday has changed. As we get older, you begin to realize the sacrafices that men & woman who serve in the military make to keep us safe. Young people are out there dying, so that we can be free to be with our families and friends to enjoy the holiday. That’s basically what it comes down to. It’s the ultimate sacrafice, and it’s what makes our country so rich in pride & tradition.

Nobody is saying don’t have a good time. Part of what makes this country so great is it’s freedom. We are basically free to go and do whatever we want. However, as your enjoying this freedom, just stop for at least for a brief moment to honor the veterans who fought for our freedom, and for those who continue to fight for it today.

As for the weather, well, I would say so far so good for the holiday weekend. Not the most summery, but it could always be alot worse. Yes, there has been some showers and thunderstorms to dodge. In fact, while the coastline enjoyed a bright sunny afternoon yesterday, areas in central Massachusetts got hit hard with thunderstorms and large hail! All in all, there hasn’t been anything widespread, and the weather this afternoon should warm up enough to possibly take a trip to the beach? But beware, the ocean temperature is still running only in the lower 50’s…brrrr!! This is going to play an important role in our weather not only for this week, but also for our upcoming summer.

Speaking of our summer, it’s time for my 2014 summer forecast! Believe it or not, summer is much more difficult to forecast than winter! The reason being that there are many more clues given by Mother Nature for winter forecast than for the summer. Jet stream winds and steering currents weaken at this time of the year, leaving a pattern which can be very fickle, and can suddenly change without notice. I am going to publish my general summer forecast today. However, I have always said that the true summer pattern does not show up until the summer solstice arrives on June 21st.

For this reason, I am going to re-evaluate the patterns at that time, and issue an update on the Monday, June 23rd. Some may call this a cop out, but honestly, it’s such a tough call at this point. I would rather keep everyone updated in case it changes, for the better, or worse.

With all that being said, here is my call, as of today, for summer 2014. I am expecting a cooler summer on the way for much of New England this year. This does not mean it’s going to be a cold summer! It just means cooler than what we’ve experienced the past several years. In fact, each summer since 2010 has been hotter than normal around here. I don’t see the same parameters that brought that excessive heat to New England the past several summers, for this summer.

Many folks, including many meteorologists rate how hot summers are by how many 90 degree temperatures we receive. On average, Logan Airport broils under about thirteen 90 degree days per season. This number can be a bit higher as close as 5 miles inland away from the coast. This summer I am expecting between 7 and 12 days of 90 degree heat here Boston. I am also expecting summer to get warmer the deeper we go into it. So you can expect many of these 90 degree days to arrive during August this year. This number is alot lower than last years nearly 20 days of 90 degree plus days! Overall, June should average a bit cooler than normal this year, July should be near normal, and August should be warmer than normal here in New England.

The reason for the uncertainty in the forecast is that we have a climate which is undergoing significant changes. Starting this summer, and continuing into next winter, we have a developing El Nino. This is a phenominon in which warmer water developes in the Pacific Ocean off of South America. How this affects the patterns this summer is critical as to what kind of weather we are going to get.

I like to forecast my long range outlooks based on trends. One may think that with all of the talk of Global Warming that it’s going to be warm. However, from what I am seeing, the overall climate the next several years will be one of cooling. With sunspots going into a minimum cycle over the next 10 years, and ocean temperatures cooling, cooler summers and colder winters are more likely over the next several years. This bucks the previous trends over the last few years of mild winters and warm to hot summers around here.

You may say, with the upcoming El Nino, won’t we have a very warm winter next year? True, it should be warmer where it was so cold in the midwest this past winter. However, things may be different here in New England. I am expecting much more high latitude blocking next winter, along with an abundance of moisture, this could make for a very stormy winter for New England.

It looks to me, that persistant warmer water in the Pacific Ocean will continue to promote a ridge of high pressure in the western part of the United States. This will likely lead to a scorching hot summer in this part of the country. Where this bubble of heat developes will determine who gets the heat this summer. Further east, a broad trough will likely keep us cooler at least through July.

As for precipitation, El Nino summers usually feature drier than normal conditions here in New England. At this point, I don’t see anything to argue against this. We will have typical showers and thunderstorms from time to time with frontal passages. But I don’t see any summer nor’easters, or soaking wet patterns. In fact, drought conditions may develop once again across many areas of southern New England come August.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. For today, after some morning showers, skies should brighten up this afternoon. With a brisk west wind developing, temperatures should quickly warm up into the lower 80’s across the region, making it a nicer afternoon for Memorial Day parades and evening cookouts. Look for a mild evening across the region, with temperatures only slowly falling back into the lower 70’s. Later at night a cooler wind from the north will drop temperatures into the lower 60’s.

Watch for rapidly changing weather conditions for your Tuesday. The day will start off mild, with some sun, but a backdoor cold front will charge through the area from northeast to southwest around midday. This means there will be a chance of some showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through. Watch for gusty northeast winds to dramatically drop temperatures into the 50’s! Brrrrr!!! Tuesday night should dry out a bit, but be on the chilly side, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

Expect lots of clouds for Wednesday with a chance of some drizzle. It will be downright cold, with highs mainly in the upper 50’s! Thursday should turn a little milder, with highs back up into the 60’s. A front may bring some showers on Friday, but I am not expecting a washout. Look for below average temperatures to continue into this weekend, with a chance of more showers on Saturday. Sunday may brighten up a bit, but temperatures will still be on the cool side, with highs only in the 60’s.

Well that’s about it for today! In next week’s blog, I will review how our spring turned out, and have my monthly preview for the month of June. I will also have your weekly beach and boating forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the summery temperatures of Memorial Day today, the feel of Labor Day will be back tomorrow!

Have a nice day!

Pete

Unsettled Outlook…5/19/14

Hello! I was very pleased to see that the weekend forecast turned out much better than originally forecasted from last week. With all of the graduations and proms this time of the year, it was nice to see Mother Nature cooperate for a change. Early morning rain was swept off the coast early on Saturday, leaving us with a dry, sunny & warm afternoon.

This is how it is this time of the year. With weaker steering currents, patterns become much more difficult to forecast. As you know, this can work the opposite way sometimes as well. Please keep this thought in mind as we move towards the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

If you are a weekly reader of my weather blog, I’m sure you recall me talking about the Greenland Block during the winter months. All winter long we waited for the Greenland Block to go negative, setting us up for stormy weather here in New England. In short, the Greenland Block is when high pressure builds over Greenland.

When this happens, the jet stream buckles along the east coast, causing storms to develop south of New England, slowing their forward progress, resulting in cold northeast winds and rainy or snowy weather.

Well, it’s heading towards late May now, so no snow. But a cool, rainy period of weather may be in store for us later this week. This past winter was characterized by a very predominant positive NAO (no blocking), here in northeast.

You may say, Pete, but we had a cold & snowy winter, doesn’t that mean we had the Greenland Block this past winter? Well yes, we did have a cold & snowy winter. However, the pattern that produced the snow & cold was very atypical for New England. There were other teleconnections which brought many quick hitting moderate snowfalls to the region. A huge block in the eastern Pacific, drove record cold air into the midwest. With no block over Greenland quick hitting storms kept everyone on their toes, from December through mid February.

All winter I was concerned that the Greenland Block may start showing up during the late spring, bringing spells of unsettled weather to the region. Sure enough, the block started showing up last week, and will only intensify this week, bringing rain and chilly weather later this week.

Many are asking about the Memorial weekend forecast. As they say in life, timing is everything! I’m sure many of us would make a deal with Mother Nature to have rainy weather during the week, then a sunny, warm weekend, right? Well, at this point, it may not be perfect, especially with the pattern we are going into. However, I do believe that we may salvage at least Memorial Day itself. If we get lucky, Sunday may even be half decent as well. I will go over the weekend forecast in greater detail in just a bit.

So what about the summer? Does this Greenland Block mean we are in for a cold, wet summer? The short answer to this question is, no! It is not uncommon at all for May to be on the wet side. I did forecast above normal amounts of rain for this May, with near normal temperatures. So far, this has worked out very well.

As talked about last week, May is still a transition month from spring to summer. Think of it as the same way as November being a transition month from autumn to winter. Leftover chilly weather from the winter, can easily clash with building heat of the summer, resulting in many periods of cool, rainy, unsettled weather.

For the record, I don’t see a particularly cool summer coming. In fact, I could see a summer featuring at least normal, to perhaps even a bit above normal temperatures. My official summer forecast will be published a week from today…so stay tuned!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Keep in mind, I also rated last week a 4 out of 10, and it turned out to be more like a 7 out of 10!

Watch for building clouds this afternoon. If you have any outdoor plans for this afternoon, be on the lookout for some pop up downpours. There may even be some small hail. Not everyone will get wet, but have your umbrella handy. Temperatures will be in the 65 to 68 degrees, which is just about normal. Look for any shower activity to diminish tonight, with clearing skies, and temperatures mainly in the upper 30’s and 40’s.

Tuesday will feature similar weather as today, with perhaps a bit less of a chance for afternoon showers. High temperatures will be near 70. Tuesday night should be fair and cool, with temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s once again.

Expect Wednesday to be the best day of the week, with mainly sunny skies in the morning, followed by increasing clouds during the afternoon. I am not expecting any rain during the daylight hours. Highs will mainly be in the upper 60’s.

Look for rainy and chillier weather to move into the region on Wednesday night through Friday! With damp northeast winds, temperatures will only be in the 50’s. It may not be raining all of the time, but expect it to be more wet than dry through the period.

Periods of showers and cool weather may persist into Saturday, with high temperatures back up into the lower 60’s. Not very beachlike at all!

At this point, I am expecting conditions to gradually improve on Sunday, with a mixture of sun and clouds. With the atmosphere still a bit unstable, I still can’t rule out a pop up shower during the afternoon. With more sunshine, temperatures may warm up into the lowr 70’s.

As for Memorial Day itself, I will be on the optimistic side, and call for more sunshine than clouds, with temperatures warming up to near 80. It could even turn into a beach day!

Well that’s about it for today! In next week’s blog, I will have my official summer forecast! I will also have your last weekly outdoor activity forecast for spring. The following week will be the start of meteorological summer! In the meantime, get the rain gear ready for this week, and hopefully the beach gear for Memorial Day!

Have a safe & happy Memorial Day!

Pete

Back to old habits…5/12/14

Good morning! I hope everyone got to enjoy the spectacular weather for Mother’s Day yesterday. After we endured a long, cold winter as we did, it was nice to have such a beautiful day to spend with our families here in May.

As we celebrated having mom’s in our families, please keep in mind the many people who have lost their mother’s, never knew them, or worse yet, have a bad relationship with their mom’s. Nothing’s perfect, but if we could all be a bit more grateful for what we have today, I think many people would feel a bit more happy. Just my two cents.

So where done with the chilly winds of early spring…right? Last week the title for the week was, “more springlike…but!” Well, the but is coming back. It’s not like winter is coming back, but, compared to the weather we had over the weekend and today, yes, it’s going to get cold again. I understand that this news may be quite disturbing for many folks. After all, many people have broken out the shorts and flip flops for the summer. The grass needs to be mowed, and most trees are fully foliated now. We’re done with winter, right? Well, not just yet.

It is New England after all. If you want constant summer from March through October, I suggest you look into moving down to Texas. May is still a transition month here in New England. True, we can have periods of sunny, warm weather. However, in reality, winter chill is still lurking close by.

The Atlantic Ocean, for example, is still trying to recover from bitter cold arctic temperatures from this past winter. Remember the rule of latent heating and cooling that I talk about quite frequently. In the spring, the ocean warms up more slowly than the land, and vice versa in the fall. This means chilly weather can extend further into the spring here in New England. Conversely, milder weather tempers winter cold from arriving here in the coastal plain in autumn.

This phenominon is going to play a roll here in eastern New England this week. After today’s summerlike temperatures, a backdoor cold front is going to come charging through eastern Mass. tonight from eastern Canada. This going to drop temperatures by some 30 degrees tomorrow as compared to today. Ocean temperatures are in the upper 40’s right now off our coast. With northeast winds blowing in on Tuesday, you can expect similar temperatures around here for Tuesday. This is going to be quite a thermal shock for folks who thought summer was here to stay!

Last week, I mentioned how I was going to talk a bit more about the upcoming summer pattern. With my summer forecast being published two weeks from today, it’s time to start turning up the heat on what I may be thinking. So far, the first two thirds of spring has been on the cooler side here in New England. With that being said, temperatures have finally seemed to have warmed up here in the first 10 days in May. Does this mean a hot summer is on the way? Not necessarily. On one hand, I can see some good signs for a summer which features at least normal temperatures. At this point and time, I am not expecting a hotter than normal summer this year for us here in New England.

Hot summer’s are rated on how many 90 degree days we reach here in Boston. Normally, we reach 90 about 14 times during the summer. This idea could change in two weeks, as I study more long range patterns going into the summer. Summer patterns are especially tricky to pin down. Some years, a chilly spring pattern can suddenly shift to a hot pattern around Memorial Day. Other years, spring chill can linger all the way until the summer solstice, and only then a true summer pattern reveals itself. So in reality, it’s still a bit too early to tell what kind of summer we’re truly going to have.

Even though meteorological spring starts on June 1st, Mother Nature’s timetable begins precisely on the summer solstice. I can tell you this, some of the more reliable computer models are hinting at a wetter and cooler summer this year. Not etched in stone, just something to keep an eye on.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this year a 4 out of 10. You ask, why so low? Today is going to be in the 80’s! Yes, but the weather goes downhill after today. In other words, back to old habits from earlier this spring! Anyway, today would be a fine day for late June, with sunshine and warm temperatures, with highs reaching the low 80’s. Later in the day, you will notice some increasing clouds.

As a storm intensifies east of Maine tonight, it will drive a cold front from the maritimes southwest through eastern New England. This front will be moving backwards on how a front normally moves. This is why we call it a back door cold front. As this front moves through, there may be some scattered thunderstorms, but I’m not expecting a washout at this time. After this front moves through, winds will shift into the northeast, and temperatures will tumble!

Tuesday will be much cooler! High temperatures will be some 30 degrees colder tomorrow, along with some areas of drizzle and low clouds. Tuesday night will feature lots of low clouds with areas of fog and drizzle. It will be on the chiily side with lows in the 40’s.

Expect Wednesday to start off murky and cool, with areas of drizzle. Later in the day, skies may try and brighten, and temperatures may try and warm into the 60’s. More low clouds, fog & drizzle could move back in on Wednesday night.

Thursday could turn a bit more muggy, with temperatures popping back into 70’s. There may be showers at any time, but I’m not expecting a washout. At this point, Friday through Sunday looks quite unsettled to me. Friday will feature some heavy downpours along with humid conditions. These heavy downpours could continue Friday night into Saturday morning.

Later Saturday and into Sunday, cooler weather may move back into the region with northeast winds, along with more rain. Temperatures may chill back down into the 50’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to focus on my ideas for our upcoming summer. I will also have your weekly spring activity forecast, which, believe it or not, will feature your Memorial Day weekend outlook! In the meantime, old habits can be difficult to break, let’s hope that this week is just a brief relapse! **Go Bruins!**

Thanks for checking in!

Pete

More Springlike…But! 5/5/14

Good morning! Happy Cinco de Mayo! May 5th is not an official holiday here in the states, but it is in Mexico! Nonetheless, it is a day which is observed here in the states as a celebration of Mexican heritage and pride. In the state of Puebla, the date is observed to commemorate the Mexican’s army unexpected victory over the French, in the battle of Puebla, back on May 5th, 1862.* Here in the states, the holiday is used as a good excuse to go out and have a good time! Now you know (and myself) the history behind the date!

Yes, the title of today’s title says it all! There’s always a “but” in there! The first weekend of May proved to be more April like than May. Bright early morning sunshine this weekend, gave way to building cumulus clouds with showers of rain, and even some hail!

The reason for the turbulant weather this weekend was due to a cold airmass in the upper levels of the atmosphere. As the warm spring sun heats up the ground, the warm air rises, creating an unstable environment. As the atmosphere becomes more unstable, showers and thunderstorms developed.

As mentioned above, some communities saw hail. Hail is formed when turbulant updrafts and downdrafts of wind freeze and melts the raindrops into a multilayered stone. When the stone gets too heavy, it falls towards earth. If it makes it to the ground, it is called a hailstone. New England typically gets pea sized hailstones, occasionally golf ball size. Some areas of the country, especially in the midwest, get softball, or even grapefruit sized stones, in some extreme events!

We continue to to take one small baby step forward and two steps back this spring here in New England. As has been the case most of the spring, a couple warm days is followed by several days that are windy and on the chilly side.

You would think that now we are into May that we are in the clear. Permanantly break out the flip flops and shorts for the summer, right? Well, not quite just yet! Technically, we are still in spring. In fact, some years May can be a cruel month. New England continues to be caught in the battle of winter cold over Canada, and summer heat building to our south. This clash of air masses can lead to many unsettled periods as we move towards summer. Some years, this transition can even extend into June, also making this month quite fickle some years.

Every year is different. Some years, the jet stream quickly lifts up into Canada, allowing summer patterns to overwhelm the country. Such was the case two years ago, when summer actually got started in March!

So what about this year? Will summer be arriving in May this year? In some parts of the country, Yes! Here in New England, not quite just yet. Very warm weather will be close at times, perhaps even making a visit for a day or two at times. Part of the reason, is that Canada is still recovering from one of the coldest winters on record up there. This means that while it may be May down here, it’s still more like March up there! This means the transition zone will be running through New England for the better part of the month, leading to quite a changeable month of weather here. This may include periods of rainy, cool weather. When the jet stream lifts north of us, we will enjoy some nice springlike weather with warm temperatures. Overall, I am expecting near normal temperatures, but above average rainfall for the month.

With it being May, you would also think that we are done with the talk of snow. For the most part this is true. However, you don’t have to go too far back to see snow here in New England in May. In fact, it snowed just this past weekend at many higher summits. Mt. Washington, New England’s highest peak, reported heavy snow for much of the weekend! Last year, a very momorable snowstorm hit the mountains of northern New England on Memorial Day weekend! Looking back in history, snow is not an uncommon occurrence in May in the higher elevations of New England.

Here in southern New England, snow in May is more rare. However, on Mother’s Day back in 1977, a historic snowstorm crippled parts of eastern and central Massachusetts. Most snow fell in elevated areas, with central Massachusets seeing the most accumulations with up to 20″! Because of the trees being fully foliated at that time of the year, significant tree damage and power outages occurred. Here in the Boston area away from the ocean, 2 to up 8″ of snow fell depending on elevation.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. No snow expected this week. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. I do believe, here in the Boston area, we are clear to begin planting and full gardening operations. If you live inland, north and west of I495, I would wait until after May 15th.

Expect building cumulus clouds today, along with the chance of another brief shower. I am not expecting a washout, nor do I believe there will be any hail today. With splashes of May sunshine, it will be a little warmer, with highs in the lower to mid 60’s. Any clouds will evaporate tonight, leading to a mainly clear sky, it will be on the cool side, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Look for similar weather for your Tuesday, with perhaps a bit more sunshine, and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 60’s. Tuesday night will feature dry and milder weather, with lows mainly in the 40’s and lower 50’s.

Watch for bright sunshine Wednesday followed by increasing high clouds during the afternoon. It will be mild at first, but expect a chilly seabreeze to chill the coast off later in the day back into the lower 50’s. For the period of Wednesday night through Saturday, expect periods of unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. It won’t be raining all of the time, but expect the greatest chances of showers late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then again Friday afternoon into much of Saturday. Temperatures will mainly be in the 50’s for Thursday and Friday, and may warm up into the lower 60’s by Saturday.

Right now, Mother’s Day looks iffy. Hopefully, the front clears the coast and we punch into a dry slot, with warmer temperatures into the upper 60’s. However, there’s an equal chance that showers will linger through much of the morning, perhaps drying out during the afternoon. I will go with the optimistic outlook for now and call for a fairly nice day!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be dropping more hints as to what I’m thinking for our summer forecast. My official summer forecast will be released just 3 week’s from today! I will also have your weekly outdoor activity forecast. In the meantime, think springtime, and forget about the “but”!

Happy Mother’s Day!!

Pete

*Information derived from Wikipedia

Where’s Spring?? 4/28/14

Good morning! After a brief spell of warm weather this time last week, the weather turned decidedly chilly once again over the past few days. Personally, I really don’t like this time of the year, at all. The weather can never seem to make up its mind. With that being said, it appears as if we are in an unfavorable warm springtime pattern in much of New England this year. There have been brief bursts of spring weather, leading many to believe that we have turned the corner, only to have temperatures plummet back to near winter levels, with gale force winds. This past weekend was a good example of this, with Saturday turning wet and cold, and Sunday not that much better.

So what’s going on here? Are we going to get a spring this year? Well, if you recall my forecast, written back in mid March, was that we weren’t going to get much of a spring this year. Spring is nearly two thirds of the way over, and many areas still look like the dead of winter. Yes, areas inside of Rt 128 have some trees beginning to bloom, and grass is turning green. However, I visited my sister yesterday in N.H. and it still looked like the middle of winter to me. They seem to be a good month away from having leaves on the trees up there. The reason some trees are starting to bloom in the city of Boston is because the urban heat island effect keeps the temperatures a little warmer. Travel outside of the city anywhere to the north and west and things appear to be about a month behind schedule.

So why so far behind schedule? Well, I believe part of it is due to some of the bitter cold weather we had during February and much of March. In addition. recent cold nights here in April have prohibited the trees to begin to bloom. Another contributing factor has been the persistant cold ocean temperatures off our coast this spring. Normally, our ocean temperatures are at our coldest of the year during March and early April. Due to the persistant cold weather so late into the season, it has not allowed the water to start to warm up as it should by this time. This plays a big role as to not let warmer weather to our southwest to penetrate into New England for any length of time. As forecasted several weeks ago, this looks like a classic Memorial Day transition to me, from winter into summer.

Some may think that this is not normal. Actually, according to my records, this is more of a normal spring around here than what you think. Forget about the past several years of trees blooming in late March, and mowing beginning at the start of April. People breaking out the flip flops in March. That…is not normal. Typically, lawn mowing season begins on May 1st here in Boston, and ends on October 31st. Leaves on the trees follow a similar 6 month cycle. Some years longer or shorter than others. There’s no question it has been warmer in previous springs. In fact, much of the country has been in an overall warm cycle of weather patterns. People were shocked this winter at how fierce the cold was.

Overall, I believe the next 20 to 30 years are going to be significantly cooler here in New England. The reason being the relationship between the sun, the oceans, and the earth. We are entering minimum phase of sun spot cycles. This, along with cooler ocean temperatures, are going to likely bring more extreme winters than what we have been used to over the next several years. If volcanic activity continues, we will be looking at climate change in a different way, than how it’s looked at today.

Not to worry too much about this just yet! I will be discussing the implications about what this will mean about our climate as we head closer to next winter. We still have summer 2014 ahead of us! Yes, spring has gotten off to a slow start here. However, the sun is very strong this time of year! Just today, when the dark clouds briefly broke apart, the warm sun made the temperatures instantly feel 10 degrees warmer. Looking at some of the long range computer models, they continue to forecast an unstable pattern going into May. However, there are signs of a change to a more summery pattern heading towards Memorial Day. Will this change persist into the summer? It’s still a bit too early to tell from now.

However, I have always believed a hot spell around Memorial Day signals a warmer than normal summer on the way. So that could be a good sign! Looking at the early set up, It looks like the midwest will have a cooler than normal summer. If the pattern holds true, this may leave New England in a more south, southwesterly flow, allowing for warmer than normal temperatures. I will be studying the patterns closely over the next couple of weeks, then publishing my official summer forecast about a month from today.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Look for a more pleasant day today, with mainly sunny skies. Temperatures will respond well, with many areas reaching the 60’s. A light seabreeze may make it cooler along the coast. Tonight looks fair, and on the mild side, with low temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s.

Watch for increasing clouds during the day, however, there will be some sun at times as well. Along the coast, northeast winds will drop temperatures into the 50’s, making it a bit chilly. This would be a good day to lay down fertilizer on your lawn. Tuesday night will feature thickening clouds, with the wind coming in off the ocean, it will be on the raw side.

Expect a mainly cloudy and chilly day for Wednesday. Later in the day, rain will likely move in, with highs only in the 40’s! A very cold way to finish off the month of April. Watch for delays and possibly a postponement of the Red Sox game Wednesday night. If they do have the game, expect rainy, damp and cold conditions, with temperatures in the lower 40’s.

As for Thursday, May 1st, it might start out on the damp and cool side, but brightening skies later on may boost temperatures into the 60’s. There still may be an instability shower sometime during the afternoon.

The weather looks to improve on Friday, with partial sun, along with the chance of a quick shower, highs will be in the lower to mid 60’s. At this point, this weekend looks to be on the dry side. I can’t rule out a spot shower, but no washout is anticipated. High temperatures will be warmer, with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 60’s.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking into greater detail the outlook for May. I will also have your Mother’s Day forecast, already! I will also continue to look at our summer forecast. I also promise no more talk of winter, until next October? In the meantime, get those lawn mowers ready, we will be mowing come this weekend! -GO BRUINS!-

-Thanks for reading!-

Pete

A Great Day For A Run! 4/21/14

Happy Patriots’ Day! So happy the weather turned out well for Easter Sunday, and of course, for the 118th running of the Boston Marathon! With sunny, mild days, and clear cool nights, springtime weather doesn’t get any better around here. However, this was not the case last week. If you recall, a week ago today, a brief burst of summer sent many folks thinking that winter was finally over. Two days later, we were scraping ice and snow off of our cars and stairs! This was then followed by a few days of unseasonably cold weather, with highs barely in the 40’s and lows in the 20’s!

This is not all that unusual. April is still a transition month from winter to summer. I’m actually a bit surprised we havn’t seen even more snow around southern New England this April. It’s still not too late, back on April 28th in 1987, a late season nor’easter dumped between 6 and 18″ of snow across much of eastern Massachusetts!

As mentioned in previous posts, this was going to be a slow start to spring this year here in New England. In fact, it may be one of those years when winter suddenly transitions into summer around Memorial Day. That does not mean we’re not going to get nice weather. However, as been the theme so far this spring, cooler days are outnumbering the mild days. After a warm day tomorrow, a distinct chill to the air will return to round out the week.

So what else makes Patriots’ Day so special? Well for one, this is a private holiday mainly for Massachusetts and Maine. Yes, at one point Maine and Massachusetts were considered one state! It’s not a federal holiday, however, that does not diminish the importance of the day. On this day, we commemorate the beginning of the Revolutionary War in 1775. Paul Revere, a North End locksmith, jumped on his horse and rode out to Lexington to warn the Minuteman troops that the British were coming!

Yes, we had a legitimate war here in the Boston area, as we fought the British to help gain our independence for our country! In fact, it was the following year in 1776 that America declared its independence! Among some of the battles fought in our area were: the battle at Bunker Hill in Charlestown, Castle Island in South Boston, and in the filelds of Lexington and Concord, Ma. Synominous with the Marathon, the Red sox play their annual game today at Fenway Park!

So what’s next? Is winter finally over? Well, if you live in St. Louis, I would say yes! I say St. Louis because I was speaking with my sister who was visiting there over this past weekend, and she was telling me how warm it was. She also was telling me that many of the leaves are already out! This made perfect sense to me. Spring and summer for that matter does arrive earlier to our south and west. This is mainly because our latitude is further north, but also because how cold the Atlantic Ocean is to our north and east. In fact, the ocean is still at very cold levels to our east, running only in the very low 40’s.

This is a classic example at how latent heating and cooling effects our climate here in New England. Latent heating and cooling is a phenominon when the land heats up faster than the ocean. In the spring, this slows down the progression of spring into New England, due to the cool air masses over us. Conversely, autumns tend last longer here in eastern New England, as the land cools off faster than the oceans, keeping us milder deeper into the fall.

Looking ahead for the rest of April, we can expect a similar pattern at what we have seen. This means, a day or two of warmish weather, followed by several days of chilly conditions. I still don’t see any sustained springtime weather just yet. Without any real warm weather ahead, this will keep our springtime timetable a couple weeks behind schedule. As far as snow goes, I think we are in the clear here in southern New England.

However, up north and in the mountains, you still may see some snow. In fact, it may snow again in the mountains as early as Wednesday! I understand this is not the news folks want to hear. Mother Nature on the other hand, has her own agenda. To be honest, we are still in the same winter pattern that we have been since November. I can see another chilly shot here in New England before the end of the month. It’s still a complicated pattern in my opinion.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. If you live in Boston, you may proceed to start palnting some flowers. Outside of the city, it is still too early for planting, as temperatures will still fall to the freezing mark at least until the end of April. This is true even down on the Cape. Even in the city, be aware there still may be a unusual cold snap through April, especially this year.

As for the forecast, Look for a beautiful afternoon, with mainly sunny skies and temperatures near 60. Tonight will feature dry weather, with mainly clear skies, with lows in the upper 20’s inland, and upper 30’s along the coast. Watch for increasing clouds on Tuesday, it will be warmer, with highs near 70! Expect some rain showers to move in Tuesday night and continue into early Wednesday.

It will turn windy and much cooler on Wednesday, with highs falling into the 50’s. Look out for chilly weather Wednesday night, with clear skies, temperatures will be dropping into the 20’s and 30’s regionwide.

Expect similar conditions for Thursday and Friday, with highs mainly in the upper 50’s and low 60’s, and lows mainly in the upper 20’s inland, and upper 30’s along the coast. There will be more rain moving into the area for Friday night and into Saturday, with highs mainly in the upper 50’s. After some early damp weather, skies may clear later Sunday, with highs mainly in the 50’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be beginning to look at the forecast for the month of May, as well as wraping up April. I will also have another sneak peek at what the summer may have in store for us. In the meantime, the first runners have already passed the finish line here in Boston! Now alls we need is a victory from the Red Sox!

~Thanks for reading~

Pete