Remembering, One Year Later…4/14/14

Hard to believe it has been one year since the reckless terrorist attacks against the people of Boston and the Boston Marathon bombings. For many, it’s been an emotional year. For families who lost loved ones, there is no bringing them back. For those who were severely injured, it has been long road to recovery, with many being never the same. However, along with the pain, there has been reason for hope. Since the bombings, it has been nothing short of inspirational hearing the stories from all the victims, families and friends.

From fundraisers, to miracle surgeons, to dedicated physical therapy workers, somehow, the tragic events seemed to have brought more good out in people than bad. And it could of been alot worse, had it not been for the amazing work by all first respondents to the scene. Now, as we move forward, we will never forget the 3 people who lost their lives, along with the the M.I.T. Police Officer Collier, the victims who were injured, the families, doctors and first respondents…Boston Strong!!

Similar to last years weather, a burst of warm weather has arrived once again for the middle of April. Stepping out this morning, it felt more like mid-June, rather than mid-April. In fact, today will end up being the warmest day since last October 7th! It was about the same time last year, that temperatures also soared into the 70’s. With this winter being colder than last, this surge of spring feels even more exhilerating!

With it being so cold, it has delayed the onset of spring here in New England. In fact, many areas are still skiing up north! It wasn’t until this past weekend when we began to see signs of Green Up here in the Boston area. With the warm weather of today, things will really begin to turn the corner around here. You will notice the grass turning green, the forsythia blooming, and now the trees will begin to bloom. Had it not been for this brief burst of warm weather this weekend and today, we would of really been behind with the spring timetable.

So what’s next? With the recent warm weather, are we done with the cold? Actually, no. In northern climates, which includes us here in New England, it’s not going to stay this warm right into summer. In fact, today could be the warmest day for the rest of this month! This is typical for us here in New England. We typically do get a couple brief bursts of warm weather during April, but it normally doesn’t last.

This year will be no exception. We will have the heat back on from Wednesday night through Easter! In fact, as a storm system moves off the coast tomorrow night, rain may briefly change to a period of wet snow! I am not expecting any accumulations inside of Rt. 128. Boston does average about 1.5″ of snow during April. It does not snow in April every year here in Boston. However, we are capable of a major storm every 5 years or so. At this point, I am not expecting a major snowstorm this year this April.

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity and gardening forecast. I will rate this year a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily on today and tomorrow’s very warm temperatures. This will be a good week to begin preparing the gardens for the upcoming season. Still, we are susceptible of cold nights with temperatures below 32 degrees, even inside of Rt. 128! This will be the case this week from Wednseday through Friday nights. Average last frosts are around this time of the year here in the city of Boston. However, you can add at least a month to this date if you live anywhere north and west of Rt. 128 and 95. If you are planning for tomatoes, Memorial Day weekend is the traditional time for planting.

As for the weather for the rest of this week, expect very warm and sunny for the rest of the day, with highs in the mid to upper 70’s! In fact, some towns just northwest of Boston may touch 80! Tonight will feature mild weather with some increasing clouds. This is important, because later on tonight, much of the U.S. will be able to view a full lunar eclipse of the full “Pink Moon,” between the hours of 2 and 5 AM. Unfortunately, there will be considerable cloudiness here in New England. I would give it a 50/50 chance. If you are interested, it would be checking out!

Look for considerable cloudiness tomorrow, along with some breaks of sunshine. It will be breezy and warm, with highs near 70. Later on in the day, there is a chance of some light showers moving through, but I am not expecting a washout tomorrow. Tuesday night will be windy, along with heavy showers moving from west to east during the night. Later at night, it will turn sharply colder. If there is any moisture left over, you may see a brief change to wet snow before the precipitation ends.

Expect much colder weather Wednesday through Friday, with a mixture of sun and clouds, with highs mainly in the upper 40’s and very low 50’s, and lows in the 20’s and very low 30’s. At this point, I am not too optimistic for the weather for this weekend. Look for rain to move in during Saturday, with chilly, damp conditions persisting into the night.

Right now, Easter Sunday looks to start out with some showers and chilly conditions. If we are lucky, skies may try and clear during the afternoon, which may boost temperatures up into the 50’s. I hope that works out for everyone!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your 2014 Boston Marathon forecast! I will also be on the lookout for any more warm springlike temperatures for our region. In the meantime, enjoy the warm weather of the next couple days, come Wednesday, it will be just another memory.

~Happy Easter to all!~

Pete

Suddenly…It’s Spring! 4/7/14

Hello to all! Yes, today’s title says it all. After a fairly long winter here in New England, spring has suddenly sprung over the weekend. Saturday began with some leftover winter chill, along with some showers. At night, things got downright cold, along with brisk winds. Just ask anybody at Fenway Park on Saturday night. With temperatures in the 30’s and a wind chill, it felt like anything but baseball season! To make matters worse, the game went into extra innings! I, for one, do not believe that they should have night games during the first 10 days of April, in northern latitude cities. But that’s another story for another time!

However, Sunday dawned with sunny skies, and what a gem of a day this turned into! In fact, there was 100% of the possible sunshine with not a cloud in the sky, along with temperatures that topped off at about 60 degrees. Because of the persistant cold this past March, this temperature actually felt like 70! This was a welcome change for many folks!

Before I continue with my post, I did want to quickly review the events of last week. I was very happy that the weather held out for both funeral services for fallen firefighters Ed Walsh & Michael Kennedy. The deep cobalt blue skies and pleasant temperatures set the backdrop for a sendoff that was second to none . This time of the year, we could easily have cold, damp, rainy or even snowy weather. How miserable would that of been. I’m glad the weather cooperated for the heroes sendoff.

With the nice weather finally settling into the area, it’s time to start talking spring. To be honest, I was a bit surprised of the sudden arrival of spring. Believe it or not, we have had longer winters in the past. I can think of three or four winters over the past 20 years when cold and snow solidly extended into the first 10 days of April. It’s not like it can’t snow in April. Back in 1982 , on April 6th, a blizzard hit the Boston area was hit with 1 to 2 ft of snow! By the way, spring may have sprung down here in southern New England, but it’s a different story up north and into southern Canada. Here, there is still feet of snow on the ground, and may not be until sometime in May before that all disappears!

With all that being said, I believe we are still running a bit behind with Green Up here in the Boston area. I would estimate it at about 2 weeks behind schedule. Green Up is the period during springtime when everything begins to become green after being dormant all winter long.

This process first starts up along the south coast of New England, and slowly spreads north day by day. The first sign of Green Up usually begins with the Forsythia blooming. Soon after, the grass begins to turn geen. Shortly after that, trees begin to bloom their leaves towards the end of April. If everything goes according to plan, everything is in full bloom by Mother’s Day. Unless we get some very warm days, we may not reach that target this year.

If you live up in northern New England, it may not be until around Memorial Day before everything blooms. In actuality, it may not be so far off it’s normal time. Over the past several springs, we have been spoiled by much warmer than normal temperatures, allowing for things to get going alot earlier than it normally does.

Overall, I’m still expecting a spring which will average a bit on the colder side when all is said and done. The warmest month of the three, will most likely be May. Thereafter, it’s anyones guess what the summer may have in store for us. Many folks have been asking me what my forecast is for the upcomming summer. My official summer forecast does not come out until around Memorial Day. However, I can give previews to everyone as to what I am thinking.

Right now, the atmosphere is undergoing some streneous changes. Not only does the atmosphere have overcome the bitter cold from the winter patterns, but the oceans temperatures are also undergoing a transformation. It appears as if an El Nino may beginning in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is a warm pool of water which develops off of South America. Forecasters will be watching this development very carefully over the next several months. Typically, El Nino’s have more affects on our winter patterns than the summer. In other words, there are is no real correlation between El Nino development and the our summer weather. With that being said, some long range computer models are forecasting a chilly summer for the areas that had the worst of the winter cold in the midwest.

Here in New England, most signs suggest a summer which features near to slightly above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation. This may be a bit on the conservative side, but this is the best I can do for now. I believe that as long as we don’t have any volcanic explosions in Alaska or Iceland, we should be able to at least have a normal summer around here. What I do believe is that we are entering a cycle of overall cooler temperatures around the globe, as solar cycles go into minimum phase, and oceans begin to cool. As we move deeper into the spring, and especially during May, I will get a better idea on what kind of summer we may have this year…so stay tuned!

Now for your weekly springtime weekly forecast. This week will be rated a 7 out of 10. Watch for increasing clouds this afternoon, with highs mainly in the 50’s. If you are planning on going to the Red Sox game tonight, plan on delays and possibly a postponement. Look for soaking rains to overspread the region, right around gametime, along with chilly temperatures. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but it looks miserable!

Tuesday will start off with rain, but look for this to end, with brightening skys during the afternoon. It will be on the mild side with highs in the mid 50’s. Tuesday night looks dry, with lows mainly in the 30’s.

Wednesday will feature cooler weather, with sun in the morning. Watch for building clouds during the afternoon as we have a cold pool aloft moving by. These clouds may produce some light showers, but a washout is not anticipated. Highs will mainly be in the 50’s. Expect clearing skies overnight, with temperatures falling below freezing inland, and mid to upper 30’s along the coast.

Look for a very pleasant day for Thursday, with ample sun, and highs near 60. A day much like yesterday. Clouds may increase Thursday night. along with the chance of some showers towards morning. Friday may feature some rain showers with highs in the 50’s.

Right now, the weekend is looking nice. Saturday should be mainly sunny with highs in the upper 50’s. Similar weather can be expected for Palm Sunday, temperatures may actually be a little warmer, with highs in the low 60’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have an important forecast for Easter Sunday! I will also introduce a new gardening forecast, for those who enjoy farming and gardening. In the meantime, enjoy the pleasant temperatures that spring has to offer, before long, we will be complaining about the heat!

~Thanks for checking in!~

Pete

A Heroes Salute…3/31/14

When I began writing this blog four years ago this month, I had the intentions on only writing about the weather. However, with that being said, there have been times during this period, where tragedies have been pushed to the forefront.

These tragedies have been both caused by natural disaster and by human terrorism. Natural disaster events are something that we can somewhat understand. Stuff happens, acts of God occur. I am not saying that this makes it any easier for the families of loved ones who have lost their lives, it still hurts losing someone you love, period.

It’s one thing having a natural disaster strike, and it’s another dealing with terrorists who intentionally hurt and kill innocent people. We have had our share of both over the past several years. Tragedies such as the Japan Tsunami, the Boston Marathon Bombings, the Malaysian Airlines ghost plane, the Washington state mudslide. Each of these events have touched us in one way or another.

Then there are the other tragedies. The local ones, the ones that happens in cities and towns all over the world, every day. One such tragedy hit us right here, once again in Boston last Wednesday. Two Boston Firefighters, Ed Walsh and Michael Kennedy, lost their lives while battling a fire in Boston’s Back Bay section. These are the deaths that are most difficult to understand. Both men were young, accomplished, and still had a full life ahead of them. Walsh, a father of three children, had the most to lose. However, Kennedy, while being single, also was a role model citizen, a Marine Corps veteran, enjoyed mentoring young kids, and being involved in the Big Brother program for others. People like this don’t come along so often.

So what would your definition of a hero be? Just like many things in life, being a hero can come in many different ways. There are people all across this land performing small acts of heroism each and every day. My definition of a true hero, is someone who puts their life ahead of others, while in danger, to save people or animals. Have you heard people who have been saved by firefighters say, “while we were running away from danger, they were running into it?” That’s the definition of a hero. That is the definition of these two Boston Firefighters, who gave up their lives to save others.

The death of the two firemen hit Boston right where it hurts the most. Boston prides itself on people looking out for each other, especially in times of storms, terrorism, or fighting fires. This is why this is especially painful, as we lost two of Boston’s best. As we move forward, let’s remember all first respondents, including police, paramedics, firefighters, who put their lives on the line to keep us safe!

Looking at the weather for this week, I am happy to report that the weather will be improving for the heroes send off on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. It looks like it will be mostly dry, and fairly seasonable temperatures. if you plan on attending any of the services or to watch the procession, plan on temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s, so you will need to wear a jacket!

So is winter ever going to end this year, or what? Many people lately have been asking me for the answers! As I write this post today, the soaking rains of the weekend have changed to light sleet and wet snow flakes, with temperatures in the 30’s. It could of been alot worse. Had it been about 5 degrees colder this past weekend, we would of been hit with a massive late season snowstorm! As it is, it still is not very springlike around New England.

We are now closing in on the first full week of spring, and many areas still look like the dead of winter. Is it ever going to end? Yes, but it’s not going to end without a fight. At this point, it’s now looking like true spring weather may not reach New England until maybe around Easter time. Yes, there will be a few bursts of warm weather, but the cold is still lurking close by. Canada is still covered in a glacier of ice and snow.

In addition, the Greenland Block, which has been missing all winter long, is now beginning to show up in the North Atlantic. If this coincides with a the sudden active southern branch of the jet stream, it’s not out of the question that a late season snowstorm still occurs. It’s just the pattern that we are in. As we move closer to Easter, the block appears to breakdown, and a ridge begins to build along the east coast. This looks like our best shot of some warmer weather during April.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to remember a historic storm which occurred on this date. Back on March 31st, 1997, a storm began here in New England which came to be known as the April Fool’s Blizzard. It was no joke, as 2 to 3 feet of heavy wet snow plastered eastern Massachusetts. Along with the heavy snow, frequent thunder and lightning accompanied the storm, which lasted well into April 1st.  Strong northeast winds brought significant damage to trees and power lines. In fact, officials from the Arnold Arboretum in Jamaica Plain, said it was the most devistating storm to hit the park since the 1938 hurricane!

I am not expecting any April Fool’s storm this year. With that being said, I am not expecting any prolonged warm weather either. At least the first two thirds of April look to be colder and rainier than normal. This means we do stand the chance of seeing a bit more snow at some point. As stated above, the last half of April may warm up enough to begin green up here in southern New England. If it wasn’t for the big rainstorm this past weekend, March would of finished as a much colder and dry month. However, 2 to 4″ of rain ersaed this scenerio, now making a cold month, with normal precipitation, with below normal snow. Boston only had about 3″ of snow, when we normally average 8.”

Now for you weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect a cold, damp day to finish out the month of March. There will be periods of showers, mixed with sleet and some wet snow. Temperatures will hold in the 30’s. Skies will begin to clear tonight, with lows mainly in the 20’s and low 30’s. Watch for patchy black ice as any leftover moisture from today may cause icy areas. Tuesday will feature alot of clouds, along with some peaks of sun, it will be a bit milder with highs in the 40’s.

Expect more sunshine for Wednesday and Thursday for the services of the fallen heroes, highs will be in the upper 40’s along the coast, and lower 50’s inland.

Friday is also a big day, focusing on happier days ahead. This is opening day at Fenway Park for your World Champion Boston Red Sox! A true sign spring here in Boston! Right now, look for dry weather, along with some increasing clouds. It will be chilly, with highs in the upper 40’s.

At this point, Saturday looks like it may turn stormy. A storm will be developing south of New England, spreading rain into the region. It may actually be cold enough across the interior to have a mix of wintery precipitation.

This storm will have to be monitored closely during the week. With a Greenland Block in place, a more wintery outcome is not out of the question, even closer to the coast. After a stormy start to the day, skies should clear during the afternoon, however it will be chilly and windy, with highs only in the 40’s once again.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing on the spring timetable here in New England. Due to the delay in spring’s arrival, the timetable has been delayed. I will explain more about this next week.

In the meantime, if you don’t get the chance to salute the firefighters in person, at least try and keep them and their families in your thoughts and prayers during this difficult time.

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Too Close For Comfort! 3/24/14

Welcome to the first week of spring! As you stepped out the door this morning, you would think you would of been greeted with mild temperatures, birds singing and flowers beginning to sprout…not this year! Instead, the bright sun was deceiving, as the bite of winter still lingers here in the last week of March! All in all, it wasn’t a bad weekend, as many areas here in southern New England warmed into mid 50’s on Saturday. Sunday was cooler, but only back to normal temperatures. Up in northern New England, they remained locked in winter pattern, with more snow falling Saturday, and much colder temperatures. In fact, many ski areas continue with mid winter conditions, here at the end of March!

So here we are, officially in spring, and yet it still doesn’t look or feel like it at all. People are getting impatient. The talk of more snow and cold have many waving the white flag. They have had enough! I can understand, it has been a long winter. But what if I were to tell you that this has been a fairly normal winter for us here in New England? Back in November, when I posted my winter forecast, I stated that this winter may have less snow than last winter, but because of it being a colder winter, it will be a much tougher winter. The fact is, we havn’t had a real cold winter in Boston since 2002-03 winter. And before then, you have to go way back to the 1993-94 winter to find any sustained cold weather.

The reason for this is not global warming. The Atlantic Ocean has been in a warm phase since about 1980. In the coming years, it will switch back to cold phase. This along with low solar cycle activity, could mean much colder winters here in New England in the coming years. This winter, the Pacific Ocean, currently in a cold phase, temporarily switched to warm. This allowed a huge ridge to build in the Pacific Ocean up into Alaska. This pattern allowed bitter cold air to build up in Canada, which consequently sank down into the U.S. resulting in a bitter cold winter.

So how did winter 2013-14 turn out? Well it depends where you live. Overall, it was a much colder and snowy winter across the midwest, Great Lakes region, mid-atlantic and here in New England. However, the core of the cold was most pronounced in the midwest, where many cities reported their one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record! California had one of their warmest and driest winters on record. Here in New England, we were on the edge of the worst of the winter cold and snow. As stated above, we had a fairly typical winter around here.

Some areas, like the Cape, benefited from all of the arctic air this winter, with many storms which typically change to rain down there, actually fell as snow! For this reason, they ended up with a surplus of snow accumulations, more typical of what Worcester usually gets! And they’re not done. I will have more on the storm threatening the Cape shortly.

Here in Boston, we had a winter which ended up colder and snowier than normal. So far, it hasn’t been anything terribly unusual. Typically, Boston’s Logan Airport averages about 44″ of snow annually. This year, we have approximately 58.” This has been distributed fairly evenly across New England, with many cities and towns averaging about 20% more snow than normal. The winter was characterized by many quick hitting intense powdery snowfalls, none of which were blockbusters here in Boston. I define a blockbuster as a snowstorm that has accumulations of 18″ or greater. We were very fortunate this winter that the Greenland Block did not develop. Had this block formed, storms would of moved much slower, dropping heavier amounts of snow.

Looking ahead to next winter, it looks like we have an El Nino developing. This will energize the sub tropical jet stream, which should bring prolific rain and mountain snowstorms for California. Should we have more blocking next year in the North Atlantic, New England could be in line for some intense nor’easters. Depending if we have enough cold air in place, we could be in for a milder winter, but with much above normal snowfall…we shall see!

Getting back to the matter at hand. Folks want to know when we can put the winter coats and snow shovels away for good! Well, not for the next few days at least! In fact, we have a storm to monitor for this week. A storm diving down from Canada, will combine with energy off the mid-atlantic coast to combine into one ferocious ocean storm off the New England coast on Wednesday. In fact, this storm will have the same strength as a category 2 hurricane! So far, most computer models have kept the worst of this storm just off the coast at sea. However, with Cape Cod sticking out into the Atlantic, they are susceptible to a significant storm to affect them.

As been the case all winter, there are two computer models at odds with each other. The European model is most aggressive, bringing blizzard conditions to the Cape, with 60 m.p.h. winds along with a foot of snow. This scenerio also brings a moderate sized snowfall up to Boston with some gusty winds. On the other hand, the GFS American model only brings a glancing blow to the region, with just some light snow in Boston, and accumulating snow down the Cape, but not a blizzard. As of this writing, I will side with the European model, which brings a significant storm to the Cape. For everyone else, if you live inside of Rt 95, close to the coast, you too can expect snow, with accumulations of 3 to possibly as much as 6″ if you  live right along the ocean. This is a very close call. If this storm should shift just 100 miles further to the west, a severe blizzard would be the outcome in areas inside of Rt 95. I will update this forecast if conditions warrant.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity spring forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Look for ineffective March sunshine today with temperatures remaining in the 20’s. This is some 20 degrees below average for the date. Look for clear and unseasonably cold weather tonight, with lows mainly in the teens.

Tuesday will be cold, with increasing clouds. Later in the day, light snow will develop across the area, highs will mainly be in the mid 30’s. Look for light snow to continue in Boston tomorrow night, with accumulations of 1 to 3.” If you live on the south shore, snow will fall heavier, and it will be windy, snow accumulations will be in the 3 to 6″ area.

If you live on the Cape, snow will fall heavily at times, with strong north winds gusting up to 50 m.p.h. This will likely lead to blizzard conditions at times. Total accumulations will range from 9 to 12″ when the storm winds down tomorrow morning. Expect any snow to be ending during Wednesday morning, it will still be cold, with highs only in the 30’s. Wednesday night will be cold and dry, with lows in the 20’s.

Expect milder weather to finally push into New England on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 40’s and 50’s. There may be some rainshowers on Friday. Saturday looks to be a fairly nice day, with some sun, and highs in the lower 50’s. Sunday may turn a bit cooler, but not back to winter, with highs mainly in the upper 40’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will discuss in more detail when we can expect some sustained springtime weather. I will also review the month of March. With the start of spring, I will have a more in depth look at our spring timetable. In the meantime, it may be a case of close, but no cigar with this storm. For many, it’s still a little too close for comfort after this winter!

Thanks for reading!

Pete

Relentless Winter! 3/17/14

Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Boston has seen it’s share of extreme weather around this date, and today’s weather will not disappoint! New England woke up today under frigid conditions, with temperatures in the single digits and teens! Almost unheard of for this time of the year! Frigid conditions will continue today, with most areas around New England not getting out of the twenties, for high temperatures. Keep in mind, our normal high temperatures for this date is normally in the upper 40’s. This is some 20 to 25 degrees below average! Other years around this date has seen major winter storms hit Boston, kind of a parting gift from winter right before the beginning of spring.

Speaking of storms, areas of the mid-atlantic region, including Washington D.C. were slammed with up to 10″ of snow today! In fact, this was the 3rd largest March snowstorm in history for D.C. In more typical March patterns, it becomes increasingly difficult for snowstorms during March in this region. Just a few days ago, this storm was pointing towards southern New England for today. Computer models were actually printing out close to 20″ of snow for Boston. Being burned from the computer models several times already this winter, I decided to wait and see what the trends were going to be, before I sounded the alarms.

Luckily, for everyone, the models began trending the storm south on Friday. By Saturday, it was clear that we weren’t going to get any accumulation at all. In fact, this has been the case here in southern New England since about the middle of February. Despite many potential storms, and near misses, the Boston area has seen very little snow accumulations. Part of the reason is that the cold has been so strong, that it has surpressed these storms to our south, or simply out to sea.   Yes, we have had our fair share of snow this winter, but the big jackpot has been in the mid-atlantic region. Philadelphia, Pa. is within one good storm of breaking their all time seasonal snow record!

While at a family party this past weekend, many members of my family were asking me when this nonsense was going to end. I understand the title of my blog today is not going to win over many new fans! However, I would be misleading everyone if I forecasted warm spring weather is on the way, with sunshine and early blossoms. I must say, this may have not been the worst winter that I have seen here in Boston, but it certainly has been one of the more persistant ones. Yes, there will be brief bursts of mild days, but I still don’t see any sustained spring weather around here at least through the middle of April. It’s the same pattern that keeps repeating itself over and over.

Eventually, the pattern will change. The first change comes this week, when the spring equinox arrives on Thursday afternoon at 12:57 PM. On this date, day and night will be of equal times. After this date, the earth continues to tilt even more towards the sun, increasing our radiation and daylight until the summer solstice. Some years, for one reason or another, it’s warmer, or cooler than normal. How quickly we forget the unprecedented summer like weather we had at this time of the year just 2 years ago! Yes, we had the warmest March on record here in Boston! With temperatures soaring into the 80’s, many folks were flocking to the beaches! This year may be the complete opposite, with possibly the coldest March on record! Mother Nature is like a huge checking account, she always strives on it being balanced to the penny!

With all of this cold air still around, this brings up the question as to whether we still may see more snow? If you don’t like snow, I can say you have been very lucky the past several weeks around here. Aside from a few small storms, it has been a very cold and dry pattern, with several large storms passing to our south and north. At this point, it’s very difficult to say whether we will have more snow or not. I do believe if you live up in northern New England and ski resorts, the answer is yes, you will see more accumulating snow, most likely right into the month of April.

Down here in Boston, it starts to become more tricky. Not that it can’t snow this time of the year. Just look back to April 1st, 1997, when 2 to 3 feet fell around here! I just have the feeling that maybe it has snowed itself out for the season. Storms keep showing up on computer models, but when push comes to shove, Mother Nature diverts them, largely missing Boston. With all this being said, it seems to me that we are running about a month behind schedule with the seasons. March is behaving more like February, so April may behave more like March this year? If this were to be true, we may have one or two more snowfalls.

Springtime can be very tricky business forecasting around here. Ocean temperatures to our east are at their coldest temperatures of the year, hovering only in the mid to upper 30’s. For this reason, it actually can snow more in April, than it can in November in Boston. Ocean temperatures in November can be 10 degrees warmer than in April. This is because of latent heating and cooling, meaning the oceans take longer to heat up and cool off than the land during fall and spring around here. This is one reason we tend to have backwards springs here in eastern New England, as any northeast wind blowing in from the ocean can chill you to the bone! In addition, if the Greenland Block were to develop, it may lock in cold and damp weather in along the coast for days, making for miserable conditions.

We have been very lucky this winter that the weather patterns have been progressive, and there has been no Greenland Block at all. Analog patterns show that a block may develop in April. If this were to occur and a storm slows down and stalls close to New England, ski resorts could be skiing into June this year!

Now for you weekly outdoor acivity forecast. With spring starting this week, I will switch the scale back to a 1 to 10 rating, with the higher the number, the nicer the weather will be. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Look for increasing sunshine for the rest of today, it will be cold, with highs mainly in the 20’s and very low 30’s! Watch for near record cold tonight, with clear skies, lows will drop into the single digits and teens!

Tusday will be a bit milder, with mainly sunny weather, look for temps to warm into the upper 30’s and low 40’s. Look for increasing clouds Wednesday, with highs in the 40’s. There will be a period of rain in southern New England on Wednesday night. Up north, it will be snow, with 1 to 3″ of snow possible.

For the first day of spring, expect breezy weather, with a mixture of sun and clouds. It will be warmer, with many areas rising into the lower 50’s, especially if you live along the coast. Friday looks dry, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s. If you are planning on going skiing Saturday or travelling up north, there may be a quick moving snowstorm, with 3 to 6″ of snow possible. Here in southern New England, rain showers may change to some snow showers at night, with a small accumulation posssible. Nothing major is anticipated at this point around here. Sunday looks windy and much colder once again, with highs struggling to get out of the 30’s!

Well that’s it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the lookout for some real spring weather! I will also take a look at what April may have in store for us this year. I will also be discussing our typical spring timetable here in Boston. In the meantime, maybe St.Patrick can remind Mother Nature that it’s time to change the seasons! We made need all the luck we can get to get out of this winter!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

More Wet Than White…3/10/14

Good morning! Overall, it was a beautiful weekend across the region. In fact, I was quite surprised at the surge of springlike warmth on Saturday. After a long winter, I could understand  the euphoria which spread like wildfire across the city. Things were tempered somewhat on Sunday, as temperatures dropped a good 15 to 20 degrees from Saturday. I have said it before, you can’t stop the march of the seasons. Despite the cold & wintery look to the pattern, spring still managed to punch its way through.

This was not the case everywhere. I was up in Vermont skiing yesterday, and you wouldn’t know that there was a significant thaw the previous day. There was plenty of snow, and hardly any melted. Skiing was good, but you could tell that the bases were getting a little thin. Folks who run ski resorts are not complaining. It has been a good season. However, despite the consistant cold, many northern ski areas have not received as much snow as you would think this year. The reason was that the cold was so overpowering, that it actually surpressed the jet stream further south than usual, resulting in more snow in southern regions than up north relative to averages.

For diehard skiers, don’t despair. Some of the best skiing may still be ahead of you! In previous posts, I mentioned that as the cold relaxes from midwinter levels, the jet stream will begin to migrate back north. As storms ride along the temperature gradient, heavy snows may occur to the north. This upcoming storm will be a very good example. This will be a classic late winter, early spring storm here in New England. While I believe there will be some snow at the end of the storm here in Boston, northern New England looks like they may be in for perhaps their biggest storm of the year!

Here’s the set up. An area of moisture will be developing over the southern plains tomorrow. At the same time, energy from the northern jet stream will combine with this area of moisture to develop a storm. At the same time, cold air will be filtering into northern New England. This is important, as it appears as if the cold air to support snow will not come any lower than the Massachusetts border. At this point, the storm is forecasted to track over the Cape. This will allow warm air from the ocean to turn alot of this precipitation over to rain in the Boston area. Fortunately for us, as the storm will be bringing with it a good amount of moisture.

As you move north of Boston, into southern New Hampshire, rain, looks to mix with more snow, with some accumulation, probably on the order of 3 to 6.” If you live north of a line from Rutland, Vt. to Concord, N.H. to Portland, Me. you can expect a heavy snowstorm on the way starting on Wednesday into Tursday morning, with 8 to 14″” of wet snow falling. Even more will fall in the mountains, with 12 to 20″ accumulating.

Here in Boston, we may pick up 1 to 3″ of wet snow early Thursday morning as the storm pulls away. One thing to keep in mind, as the storm intensifies in the ocean, is that it will yank some cold air down from Canada down through New England. With the remaining moisture around on Thursday, there is a possibility of a flash freeze across the region…so be careful out there!

Many people have been asking me when sustained spring weather will be arriving here in Boston. Well, I do have some encouraging news today. Despite the look of a winter pattern to the models, I believe the back of winter has been broken. The sudden surge of warm weather on Saturday seemed to have broken the worst of the winter cold. We are rapidly heading towards the spring equinox. This means that the earth is now tilting more quickly towards the sun, with more radiation heating us up. Come March 20th, we will have days which will have the same amount of daylight as darkness.

Now, does this mean winter is over completely? Not quite there to say that just yet. I am encouraged that we have yet to see the Greenland Block develop this winter. This, I believe is the reason why this next storm will be more rain than snow here in Boston. Had the block been in place, it would most certainly have locked cold air in along the coast, resulting in a more white than wet situation. I had mentioned previous that this winter had unusual teleconnections to deliver the snow here in Boston. It is very unusual for no blocking to develop in the North Atlantic, and to have the snow that we had. Looking ahead, there is still no blocking forecasted to develop…at least for the rest of March.

However, with all that being said, this persistant winter pattern just doesn’t want to give up. There still is plenty of cold air up in Canada. This leads me to believe that a cooler than normal spring is on the way, at least through April. In addition, we will continue to have above normal precipitation. Most will fall as rain here in southern New England, but late season snows look to persist up north, especially in the mountains.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10 on the severity scale. After a touch of early morning snow, look for the rest of today to feature a mixture of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be chilly, but not cold, with highs near 40. Look for dry conditions tonight, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s.

Tuesday will feature another day of some sun mixed with clouds. It will turn very mild again, with highs in the low 50’s! Dry weather will continue Tuesday night, with lows falling back into the 20’s and 30’s. A cold front will push into northern New England on Wednesday, making it colder up there. Here in southern New England, look for cloudy weather with rain developing during the afternoon. It may be mixed with some snow north and west of the city at the start. Highs will mainly be in the 30’s. Up north, look for wet snow to overspared the area, with highs in the 30’s.

Expect a stormy night for Wednesday. Snow will fall heavy at times north of Massachusetts border. Down here, expect heavy rain with chilly temperatures, lows will be in the mid 30’s. Later at night, the rain may mix with some wet snow, and even change to some snow by dawn. Up north, snow will continue to fall heavily through midday, and slowly wind down during the afternoon.

Look for a cold northerly wind, with icy areas even down here during Thursday. Skies will clear Thursday night, but it will turn cold, with lows in the single digits and teens.

Friday looks mainly sunny and cold, with highs in the 30’s. Right now, the weekend looks to be mainly dry and milder, highs will mainly be in the 40’s. 

The long range outlook for St. Patrick’s Day looks like it will be dry, with some increasing clouds during the day, with highs in the 40’s. This is a ways out, and is subject to change. If there is any threat of a storm, I will update this blog. 

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor our late winter, early spring weather patterns for any possible storms. In the meantime, for those hoping for spring, hang in there, winter is on its way out. However, as typically the case, it’s not going down without a fight!

Pete

Winter to Persist…3/3/14

Good morning! We finally made it! Saturday was the official start of meteorological spring! Now, does that mean winter is over? Hardly! Astronomically, winter does not end until March 20th. For organizational purposes, meteorologists break up the seasons in 4 quarters, with spring consisting of March, April and May. Mother Nature wants nothing to do with this system, however, and goes on her own timetable. Although the bitter cold eased this past weekend, we have not seen the last of winter here in New England this year.

For those tired of winter, and needed to catch a break, today you got your wish! Last week, I was following a possible major winter storm hitting much of New England for today. At one point, computer models were printing out a solid 12 to 20″ snowfall for today. As I write my post up here on the seacoast of New Hampshire today, I can tell you that I have seen approximately 5 snowflakes fall so far! This is true for much of the region, as the once mighty looking storm fizzled into practically nothing.

So what happened? Well, this may be a case of choosing the lesser of two evils! For this winter season, it’s been either choosing the cold or snow. In this particular case, the cold is so expansive up in Canada, that it just squashed, bullied, overpowered, whatever adjective you want to use, the storm out to sea! So we miss the storm, but we will continue to be bitter cold for early March! This has not been the case way down the coast around Washington D.C. area, where they are expecting up to 10″ of snow!

So what about us here in New England? Is there any springlike weather in our future? Well, as I mentioned in last weeks post, I still do not see any springlike weather coming to New England for the foreseeable future. It’s possible we may get a brief break around when spring officially begins. People are asking me, Pete, how is is this possible? Havn’t we had enough winter already? If you want my honest opinion, I would have to say yes. I believe we have had a sufficient enough winter to call it quits. But our opinion does not matter here. Only Mother Nature knows when enough is enough. And from what I am seeing on the long range weather charts this morning, it still hasn’t been enough yet!

This begs the question, why is winter going to persist? Well, this is a loaded question. The earth, atmosphere, and climate, are all very complicated matters. The non-storm prediction of today is a perfect example. As I have mentioned in the past, the weather, as we know it, weather goes in cycles. These cycles can last anywhere from 20 to 30 years at a time. From about 1980 to 2010, the earth was in a warming cycle. This does not mean it was warm every year, and we didn’t have snow, it just means the overall temperature of the earth was rising. This corrolated well with the AMO, or Atlantic Meca-decadel Oscillation. in other words, much warmer than normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures. This meant generally warmer than normal winters for us here in New England.

The other driving force that controls our weather, and probably the most important one to me, is our relationship with the sun. Scientists are now studying very closely the effects the sun has on our climate. The sun goes through 11 year cycles of sun spot activity. Currently, we are in a solar peak of sun spot activity. Back in 2009-10 it was a minimum. That year the mid-atlantic region saw their snowiest winter on record. Scientists believe that the sunspot activity is getting weaker, and that we are entering a time of minimum activity over the next 30 years or so.

Even with this years peak, we are having a rough winter in the midwest and here in New England. With the diminishing sun spot acitivity in the coming years, scientists believe we may be entering a period of even more extreme weather events, including periods of extremely cold winters and heavy snowfalls. If this coincides with a cooling Atlanic Ocean, people will be talking about ice ages instead of global warming. I find it fascinating, and something to definitely keep an eye on!

Sorry, I got a bit off track there! What about this winter? Folks want to know when spring is coming! I’m afraid spring is going to be severely delayed this year. Remember, in recent years, we have had glorious springs here in New England. Almost to the point where people felt that this was the norm. Just two years ago, people were going to the beach in mid-March around here! I am a firm believer in Mother Nature liking to balance things out, all things considered equal.

This years culprit is a very warm patch of water sitting in the Gulf of Alaska. This warm water has promoted a huge blocking ridge of high pressure from Alaska almost to the North Pole. It reminds me of a pattern we had way back in 1977.  This in essence, has cut off any milder Pacific flow from entering the United States. When one travels further east the colder it becomes. Here in New England, we have a persistant trough of low pressure. With plenty of cold air still up in Canada, expect a much colder than normal March and maybe even April here in New England. In addition, we may continue to get bouts of wintery precipitation here in southern New England, especially here in March. This pattern may persist into April, with more wintery weather for northern areas. This may extend the ski season up north, much to the delight of skiers!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. This weeks ranking is going to be a 3 out of 10. Winter weather will persist this week. After mainly a mostly cloudy day, look for skies to partially clear today before sunset. It will be cold, with highs mainly in the upper 20’s and low 30’s. Watch for sharply colder weather to move in overnight, with many areas falling into the single digits and low teens, hardly springlike!

Tuesday will feature mainly sunny weather with highs struggling to get out of the 20’s. This is some 15 to 20 degrees below the average. It will continue fair and cold tomorrow night, with some increasing clouds late. It will coninue to be cold, with lows in mainly in the teens. Folks who have outdoor skating rinks will be enjoying bonus skate time here in March! Although no big storm is anticipated, Wednesday and Thursday could get a little tricky. An arctic high pressure area will be building to our north. The clockwise circulation around this high will develop a northeasterly air flow off of the ocean. This in combination of some week disturbances moving through the atmosphere, maybe enough to cause some occasional periods of light snow. Like I said, it won’t be big, but roads may become slick overnight.

As we move into Friday, another storm moving up the coast may combine with the high pressure to our north, to bring us a mini nor-easter type of a storm. If it comes close enough, the Boston area can expect wet snow to become steadier and heavier during the day. This too does not look like a major storm at this time, but will need to be closely monitored closely during the week. I can possibly see a snowfall of between 2 and 4″ of wet snow. Not alot, but adding to the misery of the winter.

At this point, the forecast for the weekend doesn’t get any easier. After reviewing the latest computer models this morning, it now appears as if another storm may be developing in the Tennessee Valley. As a cold front slides through New England, this storm may take a track just south of New England. With cold air in place, we may be looking at yet another snowstorm here on Sunday. Right now I would say it’s looking like another moderate type of a storm, but this could easily get bigger as the week goes on. With any of these storms, if the North Atlantic Oscillation (Greenland Block) were ever to go negative, it would slow the progression of one of these storms, resulting in a much heavier snowfall. It’s in a positive state right now, but weather charts have been showing a tendancy for it to go negative. I will monitor this forecast carefully and have updates later on in the week.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let everyone know, yet again, if there is any spring weather in sight! I will also talk a bit more about the overall long range spring pattern here in New England. I will also take a sneak peek on what implications  this winter and spring may have on our summer weather this year. In the meantime, keep the faith, the inevitable will happen. The seasons are going to change and spring will eventually come…of course this may not be until Memorial Day this year!

~Thanks for checking in!~

Pete

Old Man Winter…Finds Fountain of Youth! 2/24/14

Hello! It was a beautiful springlike weekend across much of New England, as temperatures soared into 50’s, along with abundant sunshine! It was a great weekend for all. Folks who love outdoor winter activities, enjoyed comfortable temperatures while skiing and snowmobiling. On the flip side, folks who have been cooped up with cabin fever all winter, finally had a chance to get out and maybe take a walk and enjoy the warm late February sun. Even myself, who is an avid winter enthusiast, enjoyed the break in the harsh winter weather as of late.

So spring can’t be too far away, right??  The signs are all there. I heard that the summer food staple Sullivan’s on Castle Island in Southie is opening a week earlier than usual. Crocuses are sprouting up all over the place on Nantucket Island. I even read one of my Facebook friends shout out that she was breaking out the flip flops for the new warm season!

Folks, don’t get me wrong, I love all four seasons here in New England. If you have been reading my blog for any period of time, you know that winter is my my favorite season. So I’m not going to sugar coat this or give everyone any false sense of optimism. Eventually, the seasons are going to change. As the earth continues to tilt towards the sun, we are now gaining several minutes of daylight each day, as we accelerate towards the spring equinox.

With all that being said, at this point in time, I see no signs of spring coming to New England for the foresseable future. I understand it’s been a fairly rough winter so far, and people are itching for spring, but Mother Nature has other plans in store for us. In fact, from what I am seeing, this could turn out to be one of the coldest springs on record here in New England. To add to the misery, I also see multiple chances for snowstorms, at least through the spring equinox. In fact, as systems slow down, and some blocking develops, I still believe that there is a possibility of at least one blockbuster storm in the works.

With talk of more snow in our future, this begs the question of possible records being broken. So far, it has been a cold and snowy winter here in New England. Normally, at this point in the season, I would say we probably don’t have much of a chance to break any records. The snowiest winter on record here in Boston was back in 1995-96 winter, when 107.6″ of snow fell! Right now, we are only about half way there! So we would have to have another winter of accumulations that we have already had up to this point! However, with Canada still loaded with cold air, and an active spring jet stream supplying moisture, it is not out of the question that we will challenge this record. It most likely will fall short, but it’s going to make a run for it!

As bad as it’s been around here, out in the midwest, it has been one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record! It also has been a very snowy winter in the New York City to Philadelphia corridor. They too, only need a couple more storms to put them into record territory. When all is said and done, many cities of the midwest and northeast could have record snowfall this winter.

With all the talk of global warming, studies have shown that the earth’s temperature has actually been cooling now the past couple of years. Ice has either leveled off in the Arctic, or is building in rapid rates in the Antarctic. I’m not saying that climate change is not occurring. I believe it is. There’s no denying that some places have warmed rapidly over the last 30 years. However, there are many climatologists and meteorologists who believe this is a natural cycle of sun spot activity and warming and cooling of our oceans. In fact, there are Russian scientists today, that believe we are going to be going into a solar minimum over the next 30 years, and that this winter may be the beginning of another mini ice age! With persistant volcanic activity, cooling oceans, low sunspot activity, anything is possible. It’s not like it hasn’t happened before… so the debate goes on!

As for this winter, we have been caught in a repetitive pattern, that keeps going and going. The winter has been characterized by La Nada ocean temperatures, meaning it’s been neutral conditions, neither El Nino (warm) nor La Nina (cold). The main key of this winter, has been a patch of very warm water in the Gulf of Alaska. I saw this warm water back in the fall. This area of warm water promotes big ridges to form. When a ridge builds like this, a large trough developes downstream and forces more cold weather down into the states. This is one reason I forecasted a colder winter this year. This ridge was also the cause of the mild winter Alaska has been experiencing this year. The core of the cold weather has been centered over the middle of the country.

However, it has been so dense and expansive, that at times it has also engulfed us here in New England. In addition, disturbances riding along in the jet stream have amplified (intensified), several times this winter, resulting in heavy winter storms here in the northeast. Expect this pattern to be repetitive and continue well into March. We have accomplished all of this without our typical teleconnections. If a Greenland Block were to develop, we will have to be on gaurd for a blockbuster  storm hitting New England this spring.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to mention this day in New England weather history. Back on this day in 1969, began a historic storm known as the 100 hour storm. Yes, it snowed in Boston for 100 straight hours! When the storm was done, 30 to 40″ of heavy wet snow fell in the Boston area. Some mountains in Maine and N.H. actually received nearly 8 ft of snow!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. For the rest of today, look for a mixture of sun and clouds and colder weather. There is a chance of some snow flurries around, as temperatures remain steady in the mid 30’s. Tonight will be clear and colder, lows will be in the teens and 20’s.

Tuesday will feature mainly sunny skies, but watch for some high clouds late in the day. It will be a cold day, with highs mainly in the upper 20’s and low 30’s. Tuesday night will feature increasing clouds, it will be cold with lows in the teens and 20’s.

Wednesday looks cloudy and cold. A storm moving off the coast may spread a period of light snow especially from Boston south. Right now, it does not look like a big storm, however, a dusting to 2″ cannot be ruled out. If the storm comes closer, a more significant storm would happen.

As this storm intensifies out in the north Atlantic, it will yank down a bitter cold airmass on Thursday and Friday. Watch for the possibility of some snow squalls on Thursday as well. High temperatures may only be in the low 20’s, with lows in the single digits and teens, along with a brisk wind!

Watch for a chance of some steady snow for the first day of meteorological spring, with highs near 30. That too,  looks to bring only a few inches at most, at this point. Sunday looks sunny and cold, highs mainly in the 20’s. We must be on gaurd for the beginning of next week, as there could be an important storm developing, I will keep you updated with this potential.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing how February turned out. I will also have your monthly outlook for March, as well as your spring forecast. In the meantime, for those who love warm weather and spring, nothing lasts forever, even winter 2013-14!

~Thanks for reading~

Pete

Another tricky forecast…2/17/14

Happy President’s Day! Yes, I am late with my forecast today, as I just got back from a short trip up to Montreal, Canada. Yes, it was cold up there. And yes, there was plenty of snow. In fact, the storm that hit much of New England last Thursday, slammed into northern Vermont and southern Canada on Friday. I would  say approximately 12 to 15″ of wind blown snow fell in the city of Montreal. They are no stranger to cold and snow up there. With that being said, weather still makes headlines, as local news stations had storm force coverage on the storm…just like here in Boston!

Because of the late start, I really do want to focus on the impending storm, and also what we might expect for the rest of February. Before I do that, I did want to quickly review last week’s storms. After reviewing my forecast for the Thursday storm, I would say my forecast worked out very well in the end. It was a major storm that affected everyone from the Carolina’s up through Canada. As expected, people who live inside of I95 received a brief burst of heavy snow which accumulated a quick 3 to 6″ of heavy wet snow. Unfortunately, this proceeded to change to heavy rain, which made this snow 10 times heavier to shovel. Folks who live to the north and west of 95 received a much heavier snowfall with between 8 and 12″ falling, with only a crust of ice on top.

The surprise was when I was up in Canada, another fast moving storm raced through the area. This time, this storm affected folks who live inside of I95. This was another tricky forecast, as computer models suddenly developed this storm into rapidly developing quick hitting blizzard. Well, I took the bait, and went with a heavy snowstorm of possibly up to foot of snow falling in Boston! Unfortunately, the storm moved 50 miles east at the very last second, sparing Boston a heavy snowstorm. Snow fell, it looks like about 5″ fell, but was more of a nuiscance than anything else. I mentioned this to a friend how disappointed I was with the outcome of my forecast. Luckily, she reminded me just how fickle Mother Nature is, and how it’s nearly impossible to accurately predict the weather correctly all the time. Very sound advice that I must continue to always remember!

Well, enough of the past, time to turn our attention to the future. Yes, we are in a very active pattern. In fact, we have another tricky storm to talk about for tomorrow. There may be a very quick follow up system on Wednesday, which may be more of a mix than anything else. Then we will enjoy a break in the pattern, with milder temperatures, and springlike showers for a few days.

However, with all that being said, this winter still has some tricks up its sleave. Keep in mind, this is turning into a very severe winter for folks in the midwest. There is a unusually amount of cold air still in reserves up in central Canada. Come next week, this cold will blast down into the center of the country again, and spread east towards New England. This means another significant nor’easter may be in the works before the month is over. Then it’s still not over, a energetic jet stream combining with plenty of moisture will keep the chance of heavy storms going right into March!

So what about tomorrow? Yes, another quick hitting storm is coming tomorrow. Some areas to the north and west of  Boston have a winter storm warning up again. The storm right now is in Chicago. Alot of the energy from this storm will move up into Canada. However, a new storm will develop along the coast tomorrow afternoon. This storm will intensify quite rapidly as it moves quickly up the coast.

In fact, snowfall rates may fall between 1 and 2″ per hour for a time during the late afternoon and evening commute. This is true for people who live just to the north and west of the coastline. Because of the quick movement, this will spare much of the area seeing a blockbuster storm. However, because of the timing of the event, it will make it quite a high impact storm. In addition, because of the rapid intensification expected near our latitude, a few surprises may occur. The storm may bring in enough marine ocean air, that it keeps accumulations down below 3″ if you live close to the ocean. On the other hand, heavier precipitation may mean some areas receive a good 6 to possibly as much as 10″ in a few communities inland away from the coast…very tricky situation indeed.

Here is my latest forecast for the upcoming week. The severity winter index will be 4 out of 10, weighted heavily with tomorrow’s storm. Look for clear skies for most of the night, with some increasing clouds very late at night. It will be cold with lows mainly in the teens and 20’s. Tuesday will be cloudy, with snow moving in during the early afternoon. Temperatures will be near 32. After the snow moves in, look for it to fall heavily at times during the evening commute with hazardous driving condtions across the Boston area. Snowfall rates could be as much as 1 to 2″ an hour during the commute.

If you live down the Cape, snow should change to rain fairly quickly with only an inch or so. As you head north, amounts will build to 1 to 3″ north of the canal to areas just south of Boston, including the south shore. In Boston, 1 to 3″ looks likely right along the water including downtown. However, it looks like another tight gradient, as when you travel towards the western part of the city, heavier amounts of 3 to 6″ could fall. Towns just north and west of Boston, outside of Rt128 may see a quick 4 to 8″ of snow.

Further north into southern New Hampshire, 6 to 9″ looks likely, with a few lucky towns receiving 10.” Closer to the coast, amounts may decrease back down to 4 to 7.” Snow should slowly wind down and be over by midnight tomorrow night. I will have updates with this forecast tomorrow, if I feel conditions warrant.

Wednesday will feature cloudy weather, with another batch of precipitation arriving during the afternoon. Once again, there may be a burst of snow across interior zones, with another few inches possible. Closer to the coast, milder temperatures will allow more rain than snow to fall, with no accumulations.

Watch for milder weather for Thursday through Sunday, with temperatures warming to the 40’s and 50’s. Unfortunately, there will be periods of rain and showers to go along with this warm up. Right now, Sunday looks to be dryer and cooler, with highs mainly in the 30’s and 40’s. It may turn sharply colder next week with a storm possible.

Well that’s about it for now! I will be posting at my usual time next week. In my blog, I will be talking about just how much snow may end up falling for the rest of this winter. I will also take a look to see if there is any hope for spring weather coming, for those who want that. I will also have a new ski forecast! In the meantime, no matter how the forecast turns out, I promise not to complain about it!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Storm Update! 2/12/14

Sorry for the late update folks, my business has been a bit busier than normal for this time of the year. To be perfectly honest, I would rather be spending 100% of my time giving updates on the impending winter storm! But that’s another story for another time!

After reviewing the latest weather data, I would like to give everyone an update on what my thoughts are regarding the storm on the way. To say this has been a difficult forecast is an understatement. First, for many in northern New England, including much of interior New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont, this may be the biggest snowstorm of the season. For the rest of us, this is going to be a classic nor’easter type of storm.

This storm is going to bring a variety of winter weather hazards for a good portion of New England. With any winter storm, the eventual track is going to make a huge difference in what type of weather we can expect. A difference of just 50 miles can mean the difference of keeping the precipitation all frozen, or pushing the heavy soaking rains inland from the coastline, turning the snow into cement. Right now, I am going with a slightly colder solution than what some of the computer models are showing. It’s a bit of a risk, but I’m going to go for it. So with all this in mind, here is my best assessment on how I think the storm will play out.

*Snow begins in Boston between 7 and 8 AM. Snow will quickly turn heavy at times, with winds picking up out of the east.

*Snow will accumulate rapidly during the morning hours here in Boston, especially on the west side of the city in areas such as western Brookline, West Roxbury, Needham areas. Here, you can expect a very quick 3 to 6″ of wet snow to accumulate.

*Closer to the ocean, in downtown Boston and points south and east, 1 t0 3″ will accumulate. Southwest of the city, in towns such as Walpole, Franklin, and Millis, 4 to 7″ will accumulate.

*If you live north, and especially northwest of the city, amounts will rapidly build up to 6 to 12.” This is especially true if you live north and west of I495. Accumulations will run 6 to 9″ close to 128, and 9 to 12″ closer to 495.

*Around midday, winds will increase out of the east. This will push warmer marine ocean air inland, changing the snow to a wind driven rain. This will occur along the coastline first, and push inland throught the city of Boston and continue to push past Rt 128 to the north and west. I do not believe this line goes beyond  Rt 495. Rain will continue into the evening, heavy at times. Later, winds will back towards the north, and change the rain back to snow again. This is when roads can become very slippery again in the Boston area. Snow will continue until the early morning hours, and accumulate another 1 to 3.”

* Heavy snow will continue to develop across Vermont, interior New Hampshire, and much of Maine just inland away from the coast. In fact, near blizzard conditions will develop with strong winds blowing and drifting the snow. Heavy snow will continue through much of the night. When the storm pulls away from the region during Friday morning, you can expect a general 1 to 2 feet of snow, with plenty of blowing and drifiting. If you live within 5 miles of the ocean, amounts will be closer to 10 to 12″ because of some mixing.  Further inland and up in the mountains, this will turn out to be a skiers bonanza! In fact, this will be the best weekend of the year for skiing, with many resorts picking up between 18 and 24″ of snow! This is where the big snowstorm will be.

*Winds will be an issue too with this storm. Expect easterly winds to gust between 30 and 40 m.ph. I do not expect any coastal flooding with this storm, as tides will not be astronomically high during this storm. I am only expecting some scattered power outages around the Boston area. As the strong winds move in, I am expecting the wet snow to turn to rain, so any snow that clings to trees and power lines should fall off and melt.

*The storm will be over early Friday morning, allowing for a somewhat milder afternoon, with temperatures nearing 40. Later next week, a surge of even warmer weather will finally break this wintery cycle we have been in.

Well that’s about it for now! If you have any questions about the storm, please feel free to message me on Facebook, or tweet me @hrapplianceman! In summation, be prepared for a rapidly changing stormy day of weather tomorrow…and please be safe!

Thanks for checking in!

Pete