High Stakes Forecast…2/10/14

Hello! It has been a sparkling winter’s morning across New England. In many respects, you have to love wintertime in New England. The air is clean, the sky is deep cobalt blue, and the sun is glistening over the fresh light snowfall from overnight. No, it wasn’t the blizzard we had feared from earlier in the week…not even close.

This goes to show us just how fickle Mother Nature is in trying to figure out what the weather is going to be. Sometimes, it’s just like going to Vegas, and spinning the roulette wheel, you never know where it’s going to end up! Yes, the forecast for the first storm worked out well, maybe a bit more snow than expected in the Boston area, with many towns receiving between 10 and 12″ of snow.

Then, even before the last snow flurries finished from storm #1, many were asking about storm #2. It’s not wrong, it’s just human nature. We want to know what’s next! Especially in today’s hectic world in which we live in. We have appointments, trips to take, kids sporting events, and planning for school closings. So we spun the wheel for storm #2, and this time, Mother Nature came out the winner! What once was forecasted to be a crippling storm, came through last night with only an inch! I won’t get into the meteoroligical details on why this happened, only to say it’s Mother’s Natures way of saying that she’s the one who’s in control!

Okay, enough about crying over spilled milk. We did well with storm #1, not so much with storm #2. But in this winter, that suddenly has become a very memorable one, we have more coming! This means there will be more chess matches between the computer models, meteorologists, weather enthusiasts such as myself, against Mother Nature. First in line is the threat for a major nor’easter to batter snow weary New Englander’s  later this week. As has been the case with many storms this winter, computer models are all over the place with this storm. Many meteorologists don’t seem to have any answers. And I can totally see where they’re coming from. Its a very difficult pattern to forecast. There are so many variables that can go wrong.

So the question is, do I take the gamble and spin the roulette wheel? Well, for myself, I like to think it’s a bit more than just being lucky, or taking a gamble. I do spend quite a bit of time reading alot of technical discussions from experts in the field. Without information from sources such as WeatherBell, Accuweather and NOAA, it certainly would be like taking a guess. Add to that my own experience of understanding New England weather over the years (and boy, have the years added up!), and I come up with my own version on what I think is going to happen.

To me, it’s more than being right or wrong, or having a better forecast than the meteorologists out there. Of course, I want to be right. No one wants to look like they don’t know what they’re talking about. For me, it’s been a lifelong appreciating of the weather and the atmosphere, and having respect for Mother Nature, especially here in New England!

So what do I think? Well, first off, there is going to be a major storm. This is going to be a crippling storm for many. For folks down in the deep south, be prepared for a storm much worse than last weeks storm. This means there is going to be a major ice storm, along with significant snow, and cold weather to follow. This will result in thousands of power outages and life threatening winter weather conditions. This storm will develop in the Gulf of Mexico, and begin to head towards the east coast. Since it originates in the Gulf of Mexico, it will be loaded with moisture.

This is where things get very complicated. As you may know, meteorologists, and folks such as myself, utilize computer models to help us make a forecast. There are two camps of computer models. There are the U.S. generated models, and the European generated models. Right now, the European model is forecasting a major east coast storm, with a possible blizzard unfolding. the U.S. GFS model, says not so much, and takes the worst of the storm out to sea, giving us just a glancing blow. We’re talking for late Wednesday night and Thursday here. Still another model slows the system down, being captured by energy in the northern jet stream, this is a colder solution, resulting in a crippling storm for much of southern New England.

Now if the European model were to verify, it could keep the storm track very close to the coast. One thing missing in the ingredients, is a cold high pressure area anchored to our north. This keeps a cold drain of air funneling into the system, along the coast.  Without this, a change to a windswept soaking rain is possible along the coast, say up to 30 miles from the coastline. With all that being said, I have seen intense storms generate their own cold air due to dynamic cooling, and cold air aloft. If the storm takes the right track, say just southeast of Nantucket, and sustains a northeast wind, the Boston area could be in for a whopper of a storm! Right now, I am going to blend the models together, and go for a track staying just offshore, resulting in quite the storm for most of our area.

So let’s get right into the forecast before this turns into a novel of some sorts. I will rate this week a 2 out of 1o. The potential exists for alot of wintery weather. Look for brisk conditions for the rest of your Monday, with a mixture of clouds and sun. With the wind, it will feel cold, with highs near 32. A reinforcement shot of cold air will move into New England tonight. Expect clear and almost bitter cold weather for tonight, with lows in the single digits and teens. Tuesday will feature mostly sunny skies and very cold, highs will only be in the teens and lower 20’s. Expect clear and cold conditions for Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the teens.

Wednesday will feature sunny skies early, followed be increasing high clouds during the afternoon. It will not be as cold with highs nearing 32. Look for dry conditions to continue into Wednesday evening under lowering and thickening clouds. Later, after midnight, snow will develop across the region with increasing northeast winds. Right now, I am calling for a very stormy day on Thursday, with heavy snow and gale force winds. I am going to bring the mix zone for a time into the greater Boston area, and a change to rain along the south shore and Cape, perhaps even into Boston.  If the precipitation stays mostly snow in Boston, it will be a crippling storm. This will most likely be a wet snow, with the possibilty of tree limbs down and power outages across the area.

Further inland, say north and west of I495, this may end being mostly all snow. At this point, because of the potential of heavy precipitation, Boston could still receive up to a foot of snow, even with the mixing. Further inland, where the snow is dryer, up to 2 ft is possible. With the strong northeast wind, there is the potential of some minor coastal flooding. Precipitation may change back to some snow Thursday night, with some additional light accumulations.

Expect the storm to slowly pull away on Friday, with any snow showers ending early, Happy Valentine’s Day! There will be another system diving southeast from Canada over the weekend. For now, let’s keep this south of us and a miss. So expect  mostly dry weather Saturday, maybe a touch of snow Saturday night,  then dry again on Sunday. Suffice to say, I will have important updates on all of this stormy weather through the week.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new ski forecast. I will also see if there are any early signs of spring on the way. On the flipside, I will also talk about how this winter could end up breaking some records here in Boston! As a reminder, you can follow me on Twitter @hrapplianceman, check in on Facebook for updates, or e-mail me with any questions at peter.pappas12@gmail.com. I am happy to chat about the weather, or any questions you have about the storm! In the meantime, if you are a gambling person and you don’t want the storm, perhaps the roulette wheel falls in your favor? Stay tunes for updates!

Pete

Snow Blitz! 2/3/14

Hello! After the bitter cold weather of late, the milder weather of this past weekend certainly has given many people a taste of spring fever! Unfortunately, Punxutawney Phil put a damper on all of the excitement by seeing his shadow yesterday, and forecasting six more weeks of winter on the way! After a unseasonably warm Groundhog’s Day, colder air filtered into the region overnight, putting an end to any hope of an early spring. Looking out the weather window this morning, I would say Phil’s forecast is off to a good start, as the snow is beginning to stick here in Boston this morning. I believe this was a smart move by Phil. If you recall last year, the groundhog feared for his life as he proclaimed winter was over, and that an early spring was on the way. After that fateful forecast, the Boston area was bombarded by nearly 5 feet of snow!

So what about this year? Will the groundhog’s forecast be the opposite from last year? Could the forecast of six more weeks of winter actually be an early spring? Well, I’m not a 100% sure about the longer term as we head towards March, but I can tell you that for at least the next week, much of New England is going to get hammered by three winter storms in succession. In fact, today’s snowfall may be just a warmup for what’s to come this week. 

After reviewing all of the weather guidance this morning, it looks as if each storm will be bigger than the previous one. If I were to rate the three storms, I would classify today’s storm as light, Wednesday’s storm moderate to major, and Sunday’s storm as major to possibly crippling. Yes, I believe Sunday’s storm could very well turn into a blizzard in New England! With it coming almost to the date of last year’s blizzard, we can call it, the son of Nemo! It’s not a definite, but there’s a possibility that by the end of the stormy period, some areas may have near record amounts of snow on the ground! I will have much more in depth details about the three storms in my forecast shortly.

So what is going on? What changed from last weeks subdued forecast? As I have been mentioning all winter, this has been one of the most difficult winter to forecast in recent memory. There are some teleconnections that are not lining up for traditional stormy and cold weather here in Boston. However, there are others that are making it happen. True, we still don’t have a negative NAO, or Greenland Block right now. But the fact that the cold air has been so extensive this winter, that it has overwhelmed the pattern, nearly from coast to coast.

At the same time, warmer water in the Atlantic Ocean is acting as a baroclinic zone, or contrast in temperature and pressure. This contrast is intensifying now as the season matures here in February, which will result in more precipitiation. With cold air still readily available, there is a possibilty of some major storms, many which will fall as snow! As I have mentioned before, this pattern reminds me of the great winter of 1993-94. If the pattern locks in and reaches its potential, we could see record snowfall here in New England this winter!

We are now two thirds the way through meteorological winter. So how has winter been so far this year? Despite all of the wild fluctuations, winter 2013-14 has been a colder and snowier season so far. Boston averaged nearly 2 degrees below normal for January, and received nearly 10″ more snow than normal. This was tame compared to the midwest, where some areas are having their worst winter in nearly 30 years! Even here in New England, if February turns out colder than normal, we have the chance to have our coldest winter in 10 years.

Speaking of Febraury, what kind of weather should we expect this month? There are many things happening in February. For people looking forward to more daylight, I have some good news. We are gaining daylight more rapidly this month, as the earth continues to tilt towards the sun. As this happens, solar radiation increases, and the days start to become longer. However, make no mistake about it, February is still a very wintery month. Think of it just as if we are in August during the summer. Boston received their largest snowstorms in the city’s history during February!

In fact, climatologically speaking, Boston’s prime time for a major snowstorm to occur is a 10 day period from February 4th to the 14th. This is because the ocean cools sufficiently enough during this period, and enough heat is building in the south to create a clash of the air masses. This is basically what I am expecting this year. I am expecting much above normal snowfall this year in Boston. Normally, Boston receives about a foot of snow on average. I can see this number possibly being tripled this year if all of these storms materialize. I am also expecting a colder than normal month. In fact, there are some signs that the Greenland Block may develop around mid-month. If this were to occur, winter could extend well into March, with more cold and snow.

Ski conditions around New england have been improving. With colder temperatures and more natural snow expected, I am anticipating a great month for skiing here in New England. In fact, as in many years, February brings with it slightly warmer temperatures and the chances for heavier snowfalls. I am forecasting great skiing to continue well into March this year!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I am rating this week a 1 out of 10…so get ready! Expect steady light snow for the balance of the afternoon around here. Accumulations will range from a dusting to an inch north of Boston, 1 to 3″  in Boston, 2 to 4″ south of Boston, and 3 to 6″ of plowable snow down towards the Cape. It will be colder, with highs in the lower 30’s. Snow will diminish this evening, with clearing skies later. Watch for icy spots from the melting snow of today. Temperatures will fall into the 20’s.

Tuesday will feature mainly sunny skies, however watch for increasing high clouds during the afternoon, possibly setting up a golden colored sunset tomorrow evening. High temperatures will mainly be in the mid 30’s. A winter storm watch has been issued for later Tuesday night through much of Wednesday. Watch for snow to develop in the early morning hours of Wednesday, making for a very hazardous commute. In fact, snow will be falling heavily in Boston, up until about midday. At that point, the heavy snow may shift north, being replaced by an icy mix in Boston, and possibly just plain rain south of Boston towards the Cape. In Boston, I am expecting between 7 to 10″ of heavy wet snow. South of Boston you can expect between 4 and 8,” more in the interior, less towards the coast. Just to our north, where it stays all snow, up to 12″ seems likely in many areas of southern New Hampshire. Slightly less snow may fall in the mountains, but even there, a heavy snowfall is likely.

Later in the day, the icy mix may turn back to snow for a time in Boston, creating a slippery evening commute. Overall, it looks like a  significant storm, one which should have many school cancellations, including Boston Public Schools. The storm should end Wednesday evening, allowing for crews to clean the streets and sidewalks.

Schools should be back open again on Thursday and Friday with sunny skies and cold temperatures, highs will mainly be in the 20’s. Right now, I am also following the potential for a major storm over next weekend. Look for clouds to be on the increase on Saturday, with temperatures holding near 30. Snow may begin during Saturday night and continue into Sunday. If this storm keeps its intensity as shown by today’s computer models, we may be facing a full scale blizzard come Sunday. This means we will have heavy snow falling and strong northeast winds, along with significant blowing and drifiting snow. At this point, I will throw a rough accumulation of 1 to 2 ft of snow possible. Obviously, I will have more updates on this potential serious storm later in the week…so stay tuned!

Well, that’s about it for now! Looks like it’s going to be a busy week in the weather department! I’m sure we will be talking again possibly several times this week! I enjoy weather like this, and live to write about these kind of weather patterns! Next week, I will be talking about how long we can expect the stormy weather to continue. I will also have a new winter outdoor activity forecast. In the meantime, start preparing for a good old fashioned week of winter here in New England. If the snow blitz comes in as strong as Seattle did last night, we’re all in trouble!

 -As a reminder, I do post updates on Facebook and on Twitter @hrapplianceman. You can also e-mail me with any questions at peter.pappas12@gmail.com.

Pete

Bitter Cold, Pot Holes…Snow in Florida! 1/27/14

Good morning to all! For those looking for the end of light to winter, I have some good news for you. For those seeking more winter weather, I also have some good news for you as well! On average, the coldest time of the year, here in New England, is a 45 day period running from the new year, up until about february 15th. So far, this January has seen its share of wild temperature fluctuations. Just yesterday, temperatures struggled to get out of the teens across much of New England. This morning, as I write my blog here in coastal N.H., light rain showers are falling, with temperatures near 40!

These wild freeze/thaw cycles have resulted in massive frost heaves and pot holes across the region. What happens is when it gets very cold, tar and cement contract. When the temperatures rise suddenly, it expands, causing cracks. When precipitation falls into these cracks and freezes, it further expands. Add cars, trucks and snow plows travelling over these cracks, and a pot hole quickly develops. As many of you know, some of these pot holes and quickly turn into a crater. If any of you have encountered one of these craters, you know how destructive it can be to your car! A frost heave is similar, but is a result of the actually frost freezing the ground underneath the road. When temperatures thaw, the ground pushes up against the highway, causing a heave on the road, similar to a speed bump. If you ever travel on raods up in N.H. you will encounter frost heaves all over the place!

Although New England has been a bit colder than average, nothing compares to the brutal winter they are having in the midwest. This has been where the core of the coldest weather has been. Tonight, Chicago may plunge to -20 degrees, without the wind chill! In fact, it’s going to get so cold even deep into the south, that a storm system developing in the Gulf of Mexico, may actually bring some snow to the Gulf region, even possibly some parts of the Florida Panhandle! This storm will move east, then northest passing well south of New england, but possibly bringing a heavy snowstorm to areas of North Carolina! Here in New England, we should remain mainly dry this week, with this storm missing us to our south.

Moving forward, I am expecting a similar pattern to continue, possibly through much of February. I am expecting more sudden temperature changes as New England straddles the boundary between bitter cold air to the north, and springlike warmth to our south. You would think that this could mean alot of precipitation across the area. After reviewing the long range weather charts, they too would suggest plenty of moisture.

However, I am not convinced yet. Long range weather guidance have been overdoing it on the precipitation here in New England all winter long. Much of New England remains in a moderate drought, extending back from the late summer and autumn. This is nothing compared to the drought that they are having out in California. Many areas in the Golden State are either in severe , or extreme drought conditions! With that being said, much of New England, especially here in eastern Massachusetts, are running a deficit from last year. If this dry pattern were to continue into the summer, we too could be looking at a more serious drought on our hands.

You say, Pete, how can we be having a drought, havn’t we had alot of snow so far this winter? Yes, we are running above average snow, but it also has been very cold the times that it has snowed, limiting the amount of moisture in the snow, resulting in alot of dry, fluffy snow, especially across southern regions. It is interesting to note, that the Old Farmers’ Almanac did forecast a cold, dry winter here in New England (Dublin, N.H. edition), with above average snowfall, especially in southern New England.

Looking ahead, I did mention that people who are tired of the cold and snow have something to look forward to. This is true. Today for example, many areas quickly warmed back close to 40 degrees! Don’t get used to this! Another bitter blast will be crashing into New England later today, with temperatures plummeting into the single digits! This cold snap will last into Thursday, then I am expecting a sudden shift in the pattern. This will allow milder air to move up the east coast later in the week and into the weekend. By that time, we will be in February. At that point, we will be in the home stretch for spring. The days will start to get longer, and the sun will begin to feel warmer. I am not saying that winter will be over, but after this week, we may have seen the last of the real bitter cold air for the season, here in New England.

Now, for folks wanting more winter (myself included), it’s not over quite yet. Even though this winter has not turned out exactly how I envisioned it, we still have a ways to go. What’s been lacking this winter to sustain cold, and develop heavy snowstorms has been the absence of the Greenland Block. Without this, storms have been very progressive, and warmer periods have been able to penetrate easily into New England. Without any sign of the block, I expect a similar pattern to continue through February. I am expecting more snow and cold, puncuated by milder periods and rain. The block was the one wild card I was watching for this winter. If the block developed, a severe winter would of ensued across New England. It would be unprecedented if we went through an entire winter without any high latitude blocking. With the way the patterns have been so conflicted this winter, I’m afraid the block will come, just as we’re getting ready for spring!

Here is your weekly ski forecast. Ski conditions are very good across much of New England. I experienced this first hand yesterday at Gunstock Mountain in Gilford, N.H. Yes, they could use a heavy snowfall, but it’s been cold, and they have been able to make snow. Folks, these ski resorts have invested tons of money into some of the most sophisticated snow making equipment available. Looking ahead to February, I believe New England ski areas, especially to the north, will benefit from some major snowfalls. With temperatures a bit milder than January, this could be the best ski month of the season!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10 on the severity index. Expect a changeable forecast for this afternoon. After a few light rain showers, expect a gusty wind to pick up, along with some breaks in the clouds. Later, a brief snow squall may pass through some towns, reducing visibility, and causing a quick freeze on highways. Watch for early afternoon high of near 40 to plummet into the 20’s by dinnertime, with a rapid freeze up! Overnight, be prepared for another blast of arctic air, along with a gusty wind, temperatures will be dropping into the single digits across the region!

Tuesday will be another very cold,  but dry day, with highs remaining in the teens across much of the region. Expect another clear and very cold night Tuesday night, with lows ranging from 5 below to 5 above zero. The cold and dry weather will continue into Wednesday, with highs mainly in the 20’s. There may be some high clouds blotting out the sun during the afternoon. This is from a storm system which will miss us to our south.

Look for slightly milder weather on Thursday, with highs reaching the lower to mid 30’s. At this point, I am expecting a boundary to set up somewhere south of New England, for the period of Friday through Sunday. I am not expecting any big storms at this point, however, there is a chance of some periods of light mixed precipitation or just some light snow. The best chances for this looks like it will be Friday morning, then again later Saturday into Sunday morning. The forecast for the Superbowl in N.Y. looks to be dry and cold, with temperatures near 30…it could of been alot worse! There could be a more significant storm of either snow or rain sometime next week.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing how the weather turned out for January, and I will be previewing what February’s weather may be like. I will also have an updated ski and outdoor winter activity forecast. In the meantime, be prepared for just about anything from Mother nature this week…and watch out for those pot holes!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Snowy Scenerio…1/20/14

Good Morning! Happy Martin Luther King Day! Our extended January thaw came to a crashing end on Saturday. What was forecasted by many to be just some rain possibly mixed with some wet snow, turned into a hazardous nightmare for many who were out on the road. Yes, the storm intensified at the last second, this caused dynamic cooling in the atmosphere. The result was rain which changed to a burst of heavy wet snow, with snowflakes the size of potato chips falling! The big, fat flakes were falling rapidly, and accumulated up to 8″ in some places! This caught many folks, including many local meteorologists off gaurd, as the snow piled up on back decks, highways, and trees.

Many friends and family were asking me how this could happen? How could a forecast of just some rain showers turn into mayhem within minutes? First, not to pat myself on the back, but my forecast from last Monday did call for a a quick moving storm with rain changing to snow. With that being said, even I thought the storm was dead in the water as late as Thursday, as computer models seemed to have just lost it. However, as computer runs starting coming in later Friday, it was apparent that it had revived itself, and a storm was on the way.

Now, this is when it becomes complicated. Because it had been so warm, the storm was most certainly going to start as rain. However, in the upper atmosphere, the air was turning colder. As the storm intensified, heavier precipitation pulled this colder air down to the surface, changing rain to snow. In addition, the storm was originally forecasted to move just north of Boston, which would of kept south winds flowing into Boston, keeping it more rain than snow.

However, the storm suddenly shifted about 75 miles further south, resulting in the storm moving south of Boston. This shifts the winds more into the north, northeast, keeping colder air draining into the city. Add convergience of warm and cold air masses, and you have a nice little snowstorm on your hands! The location of where the city of Boston is, makes it a very challenging place to forecast the weather! with all of the computer models at our disposal, it still shows us that Mother Nature still has the last call in forecasting the weather!

So what’s next? Last week I talked quite a bit about the Greenland Block. I mentioned that if this were to develop, severe winter weather could bring New England to a standstill. Well, looking at the latest weather charts, I still don’t see any evidence of a block developing. However, this does not mean we are going to escape harsh winter conditions. There are other teleconnections occurring in the atmosphere that will still pack a wintery punch here in New England. 

A massive area of high pressure (warm/dry weather) has formed in the Pacific Northwest into western Canada. This area of high pressure has blocked any storms from hitting California this winter, resulting in severe drought conditions across the state. In fact, climatologists are calling 2013 the driest year on record for this region! Without any El Nino developing this year, I expect this pattern to persist at least through February.

So what does this type of pattern mean for us here in New England? Since the atmosphere is always trying to balance things out, we will be on the other extreme, at least through the end of January. This means a deep trough (cold/stormy) weather will develop over the eastern part of the country. Think of the jet stream like a garden hose, with meandering loops of highs and lows. Over the next two weeks, our weather will be coming  right from the North Pole!

This means we can expect shots of arctic cold weather. In addition, bundles of energy called short waves, will be riding the jet stream south of New england. This will result in periods of stormy weather, with several snowstorms possible. One of these short waves, also known as Alberta Clippers, will be developing along the arctic front tomorrow. Latest indications show that this storm may intensify into a coastal storm, resulting in significant accumulations for coastal areas. In fact, this storm looks fairly similar to the New Year’s nor’easter earlier this month. I will explain all of the details shortly in my forecast.

With the persistant cold weather expected, I have good news to report for many outdoor winter activities for the next two weeks. Folks who maintain outdoor skating rinks should be in very good shape for the next two weeks. In addition, New England ski resort conditions will be rapidly improving. I still don’t see any blockbuster storms, but with the cold weather, and frequent light snowfalls, you can expect conditions on the slopes to be rated as a 7 out of 10 for the next couple of weeks. In fact, if one of these coastal storms were to throw additional moisture into the mountains, conditions could be upgraded to even a 9 out of 10!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. This weeks winter severity rating will be a 3 out of 10. Look for mostly cloudy weather for the rest of the afternoon. As an arctic cold front presses through, there may be a brief snow flurry, or even a snow squall. Temperatures will be mainly in the 30’s. Watch for colder weather to move into the region tonight with northerly winds. It will remain on the dry side, with lows falling into the teens.

Be prepared for a very wintery day for Tuesday. As a storm approaches from the southwest, look for clouds to lower and thicken during the morning.  As winds turn northeast, some light snow and flurries may develop along the coast, resulting in some locally slippery roads. As the storm intensifies Tuesday night, expect a snowy scenerio to develop in the Boston area. At this point, the worse of the storm appears as if it will be similar to the New Year’s storm.

This means coastal areas of southeastern Massachusetts, in towns such as Hull, Scituate, Plymouth, and especially the Cape and Islands, could see heavy snow at times and gusty winds from the northeast. In fact, some towns on the Cape could see blizzard conditions Tuesday night with some areas receiving a foot of snow!

Further north, along Boston’s south shore, you can expect 6 to 10″ of light, powdery snow. In the Boston area, I am calling for 4 to 8″ for right now. Coastal areas of New Hampshire can expect 3 to 6″ of snow. If you live inland, you will not receive as much snow. Towns north and west of Rt 128 will likely see only 2 to 4″. Areas to to southwest and south of Boston in towns such as Stoughton, Easton and Brockton should receive between 5 and 10″. Ski country will mostly miss this storm. Because of the fluffy consistency of the snow, there always will be some higher amounts possible.

Expect a slippery Wednesday morning commute with delays, as snow begins to taper off during the morning. Right now, I am anticipating some delays, but I do not think Boston schools will be cancelled. It will remain cold with the sun returning during the afternoon, highs may only reach the upper teens. Bitter cold weather will be the rule for Thursday and Friday as well, with highs mainly in the teens and lower twenties.

This is a energetic, fast pattern, so there is a possibility of more snow Thursday night into early Friday. Right now, the weekend may moderate slightly, Saturday looks dry, but there may be another light snowfall across New England on Sunday. If I see any major changes later, I will update this blog. I also post updates on Facebook, as well as on Twitter. You can follow me on Twitter @hrapplianceman.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor the wintery weather pattern unfolding here in New England.  I will also have a new outdoor winter activity forecast for you. As a reminder, please keep your pets and elderly warm in the bitter cold weather expected the next couple of weeks. In the meantime, be ready for a snowy scenerio on the way, and keep warm yourself!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Halftime of Winter…1/13/14

What a weekend! Not only did the Patriots win big, but the weather also was the talk of the town. Yes, we are at the halftime for winter, and during the break, spring has sprung across New England! After bitter cold air earlier in the week, temperatures soared to near 60 on Saturday, along with springlike thunderstorms rumbling across the region! As for the game, downpours could not put a damper on a championship performance from the Pats! In a way, it was very similar to the Buffalo game, except it was about 20 degrees warmer…much to the appreciation of all the loyal fans. After a blustery day yesterday, spring is in the air once again today!

So, is that it? Is winter over? Have we seen the last of the Polar Vortex? The short answer to this question is no! As I mentioned in last weeks blog, this has been a very frustrating winter so far. Still, to this date here in mid-January, a true winter pattern has not settled in. It’s been all over the place this year. The question is, will a true winter pattern ever show up this year?  This is still too difficult to answer. As you may have noticed, it’s been a very progressive, transient pattern so far this winter. Not one pattern has stuck for any length of time. In a way, you could say it’s been a very typical New England winter so far. If you don’t like the weather, just wait a minute, and it will change!

Speaking of the Polar Vortex, many friends have been asking me just what the heck the Polar Vortex is. I admit, it does sound like something out of a sci-fi film. Actually, the Polar Vortex is a meteorological phenomina that is a semi permanent feature around the North Pole. The Polar Vortex is a tightly wound vortex of jet stream winds circulating around the polar regions, especially in the winter time.

This vortex is responsible for delivering our cold weather to us during the winter time. Normally, the vortex stays up closer to the polar regions, sending tentacles of cold air down towards the states. However, occasionally, the vortex gets caught in a block, and is forced further south than normal. When this occurs, as we witnessed last week in the midwest, severe winter cold is the result. As the vortex lifts back up into Canada, more typical winter weather returns.

Looking forward, I can envision a similar pattern repeating itself after this week. I recall writing in my winter forecast, that without any North Atlantic blocking developing over Greenland, the winter would not be as severe as feared. This is always a wildcard in any winter, but especially this one. So far this winter, there has been no Greenland Block to speak of. This explains the variable, transient pattern. Here is New England, we have been influenced by the climates of Canada (cold), and from the U.S. southeast coast (warm). If the Greenland Block were to develop, severe winter weather could bring New England to a standstill this winter, with heavy snow and persistant cold. I will continue to monitor this possibility for everyone.

So what about the rest of the winter? From what I am seeing at this point, I am expecting a continuation of the pattern that we have been in. There will be more wild temperature swings…with one catch. I do believe that as we move deeper into the winter, the cold will be even more severe than what we have already went through. In addition, I also believe that we may have at least one significant storm, perhaps even a blizzard sometime in February or March. Hard to believe we could get a storm like last February again, but I do think this is still a possibility. 

If the Greenland block develops later in the winter, things could get real ugly around here, with winter lingering well into the spring. I have always said, it’s best to get the winter patterns right in the heart of winter. It may be severe, but at least you get it out of the way. If the pattern were to delay and show up towards spring, it could mean a cold, wet spring is on the way. Eventually the block will show up.  In the end, my original winter forecast may be right after all!

It has been a frustrating season so far up in ski country as well. These alternating freeze/thaw cycles are the worst patterns to manage. In addition, the winter has also had a dry look to it. They desperately could use a couple heavy snowfalls on the slopes. Next weekend is another big holiday weekend for the ski resorts. I do see colder weather moving into the region, along with the chance of some natural snow. I do not see any blockbuster storms at this point. With that being said, ski resorts have spent thousands, if not millions on snow making and grooming equipment to assure you of adequate conditions, no matter how much natural snow falls. As we move deeper into the winter, I do believe ski conditions will be improving with heavier snowfalls heading into February and March.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Look for mostly sunny and mild temperatures, with highs near 50. Clouds will be on the increase tonight with some showers developing very late tonight. It will be on the mild side, with lows mainly in the 30’s. Watch for occasional showers for your Tuesday. It will be on the mild side, with highs mainly in the 40’s. There still may be some damp weather heading into Tuesday night, but nothing that should stop you from any plans for the evening.

Expect mainly cloudy weather on wednesday. There may be some additional precipitation later in the afternoon. As it starts to turn gradually colder, it may mix with some snow showers at night. For Thursday, an ocean storm will be passing us to our east, we may get brushed with some light snow or rain. This does not look serious at this point, but will need to be monitored.  Friday should be fair, with  temperatures close to 40.

A quick moving storm may bring a period of rain mixed with snow, or rain changing to snow Friday night and first thing Saturday. Right now I can see a quick couple of inches possibly accumulating.  After the storm, watch for colder weather to move into the region. On Sunday, watch for even colder weather moving in, along with the chance of a few snow squalls. MLK Day looks cold and dry at this point.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be looking in to see if we have any more snowstorms heading our way in January. I will also have a new outdoor skating rink forecast. Things will be improving after Wednesday of this week. I will also have an updated ski forecast. In the meantime, halftime break is just about over, will Mother Nature deliver the knockout punch in the 4th quarter? We shall see…

*****GO PATRIOTS!!*****

Pete

Arctic Blast…Then Spring Fever! 1/6/14

Happy New Year! We certainly have had quite the start with weather here in 2014! Overall, I feel the New Year Nor’easter was forecasted quite well by local meteorologists. In storms like this, there are always going to be some surprises. Areas north of Boston was quite a surprise, with some towns getting belted with up to 24″ of snow! This was always forecasted to be a coastal storm, and that’s exactly how the accumulations worked out. Many coastal communities received between 12 and 18″ of snow, where inland areas recieved mainly between 6 and 12.” Boston’s Logan Airport right on the ocean, actually came in with 15.1″, where here where I live in the southwest part of the city of West Roxbury,  I estimated about a foot of snow fell. I say estimate because of the blowing and drifting that occured made it quite difficult to measure the snow.

As noted earlier, there were some jackpot amounts of between 20 and 24.” The fascinating aspect of this storm was the bitter cold temperatures that accompanied the snow. Many locations from Boston north, temperatures plummeted into the very low single digits…even below zero just north of Boston! This arctic cold air passing over the relatively warm ocean, actually enhanced the snowfall in coastal areas!

Believe it or not, we are already entering our 5th week of meteorological winter! So, how is the winter forecast working out so far? Well, that depends who you ask, and what statistics you view. Statistically, Boston is currently having a colder and snowier winter so far, which I forecasted. However, it’s been quite the adventure getting there to this point. It certainly has not been consistantly cold and snowy up to this point. Case and point, it’s close to 60 degrees out this morning! It was well below zero in many towns just 2 days ago! We also had a major nuclear meltdown just before Christmas, ruining our White Christmas here in the city of Boston. So it has been a back and forth pattern. With periods of heavy snow and cold, punctuated by thaws and rain. Averaging it all out up to this point, Boston is quite a bit above normal in snowfall, and is running colder that normal so far.

So you might say, Pete, you’re doing a good job with the winter forecast. Well, on paper, yes, it’s not that bad. However, to be honest, it hasn’t had the “look” that I thought it would, so far. Granted, it’s still early, and we still have a long way to go. In fact, I am still expecting this winter to only get worse the deeper we go into the season. The Greenland Block, which has been in the decidedly positive phase this whole winter, may turn negative as we head towards the end of January. This is the wildcard for the winter. If this block does not set in, we will continue with a similar pattern like we have had. However, much like last year, I am starting to think we may have a big event coming sometime during the first  part of February. Even into March, I am beginning to see signs that this winter may want to linger possibly even into April this year!

Before we get to some of these big events that I’m anticipating, it’s looking more and more that a serious thaw is on the way for much of New England. After this brief bitter blast, the cold is going to lift out, replaced by mild, Pacific air. This warm pattern is quite surprising to me. I was anticipating a more consistant cold pattern for the better part of January. There will be some cold periods and some snow. But from what I am looking at right now, it looks like it will be warmer than normal for about 2 weeks starting this weekend. I understand, this is not the forecast that folks with outdoor rinks wanted to hear. It has been rather frustrating trying to forecast to say the least. This has brought new meaning to the phrase, if you don’t like New England weather, just wait a minute, and it will change. 

So how’s ski country doing? After a fast start to the season, things have become a bit scratchy on the slopes. The problem has been the lack of natural snow, not necessarily the temperatures. Like in southern New England, they too have had some brief thaws, but the cold weather has largely returned quite quickly. However, without some heavy snowfalls, the conditions can become icy in a hurry. If you have plans to go skiing, do not let this deter you! Ski resorts do a fantastic job these days with snow making and grooming. As long as temperatures stay cold enough, they can make poor conditions into a very respectable day of skiing! The season is still young, with a good three months left to go. Here too, I am expecting heavier snowfalls as we move deeper into the winter season.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10 on the severity index. Early severe cold will be replaced by milder weather this weekend. Watch for some passing downpours early this afternoon. Later, expect a gusty wind to develop, and dropping temperatures. A early high of 60, will start to drop throught the 40’s by dinnertime. Be ready for an arctic blast to pour into the region tonight on the heels of a gusty west wind. In fact, this wind may transport some snow showers all the way from Lake Ontario tonight. Some communities may recieve a dusting of snow overnight. Temperatures will plummet into the single digits and lower teens, along with a biting wind chill.

Tuesday will feature bitter cold weather, with ineffective sunshine, with high temperatures only around 15 degrees. In addition, the gusty west winds will make windchills feel like 10 below zero at times. Watch for the bitter cold weather to continue into tomorrow night, with clear skies and lighter winds, temperatures will fall below zero across much of New England. The exception will be in the major urban cities, where they will fall into the single digits.

Look for moderating temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, with high temperatures in the 20’s on Wednesday, and near 30 on Thursday, with mainly sunny weather. Watch for increasing clouds later Thursday along with the chance of some light snow or flurries to develop at night. This activity may linger into the day on Friday, however at this point, I am not looking for anything significant, just nuiscance precipitation. In fact, if it lingers into later Friday, it may even change to some light rain.

Right now, I am expecting warmer weather to surge into New England this weekend, with highs in the 40’s on Saturday, and possibly some 50’s by Sunday! This should be welcome news for folks going to the Patriots game on Saturday night! -Go Patriots!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring just how long we can expect this January thaw to last. I will also let you know if we have any significant snowstorms to be concerned about. I will also have a extended forecast for the rest of January, as well as a new ski and snow boarding forecast. In the meantime, keep the scorecards handy, as we keep track of both winter and spring in this ever changing weather here in New England!

~Thanks for reading~

Pete

P.S. Please do not venture out onto any frozen ponds or lakes! There have been too many thaws, and the ice is not safe!

New Year Nor’easter…1/1/14

Happy New Year! I hope everyone had a safe & happy time bringing in the new year! Now our attention turns to the potential for a significant nor’easter to start the new year. As been the case with other storms so far early winter season, this has been particularly difficult to forecast. Earlier in the week, the trusted European computer model was depicting a crippling blizzard hitting the I95 corridor from Washington D.C. to Portland, Maine. However, subsequent model runs have backed off from this scenerio. Such a storm would of rivaled, or even surpassed last year’s blizzard in February! Not that it couldn’t happen, but statistics go against such a storm to occur in such short historical periods. In Boston, we may storms like that perhaps once every five years or so. That is not to downplay the storm I am forecasting to hit Boston starting early tomorrow. It will be significant winter storm, one that will cause major disruptions and cancellations.

So let’s get right into the forecast. After reviewing the latest data, it appears this storm is going to hit hardest in eastern Massachusetts, even right down to the Cape. A few things to point out about the storm. First, this is going to be a very cold storm, with temperatures falling into the teens and maybe even single digits! Second, this will be a very low density snowfall, not only will it accumulate rapidly, but it will also be easy to shovel and plow. With that being said, high winds during the height of the storm will create near blizzard conditions along east coast Massachusetts, especially early Friday morning.

Expect light snow to rapidly overspread the area very late tonight. It will be cold with lows mainly in the teens. Look for a snowy day tomorrow, with mainly light to perhaps occasionally moderate snow falling steadily throughout the day. You will be able to go out and about tomorrow, just watch for some slick roads. Temperatures will hold in the 20’s. As the storm intensifies to our south tomorrow night, it will combine with an arctic high pressure area to our north and increase the pressure gradient, especially in eastern Massachusetts. Expect snow, heavy at times, with winds increasing to 20 to 40 m.ph. This will create near blizzard conditions along the coast and down the Cape. In addition, temperatures will be plummetting into the single digits and teens. This combination will make it dangerous to be outdoors.

With the strong northeast winds, and astronomical high tides, there will be areas of minor to moderate coastal flooding. I am expecting the usual splash over, and some roads flooded. I am not expecting major flooding. This will occur in the usual susceptible locations such as Scituate, Hull, Revere, and Nahant. Please keep up to date to NOAA if anything changes.

With heavy snow falling, and strong north winds, much of eastern Massachusetts, including the city of Boston, and especially the south shore and Cape Cod will be shut down Friday morning. This will include many private and most public schools. For a time, blizzard condtions can be expected in east coast Massachusetts, and especially on the south shore and the Cape. Look for snow to slowly taper off first west of Boston, then in the city by noontime, but it may snow down the Cape most of the day. After the storm winds down, I am expecting 8 to 12″ of snow for much of eastern Massachusetts. Along the coast up into southern New Hampshire, I am expecting between 6 and 10″. However, there are going to be areas that git hit harder. I am thinking the north shore, and the city of Boston may receive between 10 and 15″ of snow. If you live south of Boston, and down towards the Cape, you can expect even heavier amounts, with between 12 and 20″ of snow falling!

Well that’s about it for now, not our biggest storm, but a significant one nonetheless. I will update this blog if I feel it necessary. In the meantime, get the shovels and snow blowers ready, as we prepare for the first storm, and definitely not the last storm in 2014! -If you have any questions, you can respond on my FB, or tweet me  @hrapplianceman.

~Happy New Year… be safe!!~

Pete

Stormy…Severe Cold! 12/30/13

Hello, all! For late December standards, temperatures were very reasonable across New England. The weekend started off dry, but finished on a very wet note yesterday. Anyone who went to the Patriots game yesterday could attest to that! Had it been just a few degrees colder in Foxborough last evening, we would of been looking at a foot of snow falling during the game last night!

Even where I was up here on the seacoast of New Hampshire, the precipitation fell as all rain. However, ski areas did quite well with the fast moving intense storm, with many areas receiving between 10 and 15″ of heavy wet snow. This will act as a good base as we move deeper into the season. The storm behaved very much like a spring storm, with rain falling in southern and coastal areas, and snow up in the hills and mountains. There’s one catch, this isn’t spring, and severe winter conditions will make its presence felt across the rest of New England as early as this week!

Now for your weather year in review. Hard to believe we are on the verge of closing out yet another year! Looking back, it was a year filled with more extremes in the weather department. We started the year off with fairly benign weather in January, with fairly mild temperatures and below average snow. In fact, you may have been lulled into thinking that winter wasn’t coming again, as the previous year. However, the pattern changed in February, delivering Boston’s 5th largest snowstorm in cities history on February 8th and 9th. Heavy snowstorms continued after that well into March, sending Boston’s annual snowfall well above the seasonal average. Dry and seasonable weather returned for April and May, only to followed by record rainfall and humid conditions for June!

The wild swings continued into July, which brought record hot and dry weather to the Boston area. After reaching 90 degrees for 7 days in a row, Boston would not see another 90 degree day again until mid-September! In fact, August turned out to be a splendid month, with many sunny days, near average temperatures and well below normal rain.

Autumn 2013, could possibly be classified as one of the most beautiful fall’s on record across most of New England. For the period of September, October, and November, temperatures averaged slightly above normal, with near record low precipitation. However, a sudden change to much colder weather in mid-November signified that a rough winter may be on the horizon. So far, December has averaged colder than normal, and near normal precipitation. In fact, we have already received 2 snowstorms here in Boston, and more to the north and west of the city.

So what can we expect heading into the New Year? As I have mentioned in earlier blogs, we should be prepared for much colder and snowier winter this year. In fact, if the long range computer models are correct, a severe winter may be settling in. After studying all of the technical discussions, and looking at the overall pattern, I am expecting severe winter weather conditions this January. This not only means record cold, but possibly also record snowfall as well! Many years, we get one or the other, to combine the two together can make for a historic stretch of winter weather. Remember, January’s averages are cold to begin with, combine that with forecast temperatures for well below normal, and we have the makings for a brutal January.

And it’s not just the cold. A huge area of high pressure, or a ridge in the upper atmosphere will be rising in the western part of the U.S. and Canada, this in turn will drive a deep trough of low pressure in the eastern part of the U.S. sending blasts of cold air direct from the North Pole into New England. As disturbances ascend down from Canada, they combine with an active southern subtropical jet stream. When these two streams phase together, major storms develop. If we have enough cold air banked to our north, and the storm passes to our south, prolific snowstorms and blizzards could occur. One of these storms may be on the way for this week! I will discuss this in further detail in my forecast.

So far, our wintery weather has been supplied to us by teleconnections that are not typical for developing winter storms and cold. As we get deeper into winter, the Greenland Block may develop. If this were to happen, and many computer models have been showing it, it may lock in the cold and stormy pattern well into the spring. This pattern reminds me of the winter of 1993-94, when some 26 snowstorms struck New England that year!

Before I get to the forecast, I did promise folks who have constructed outdoor skating rinks a temperature forecast. These outdoor rinks are not an easy task. They require a great deal of time and energy to monitor and maintain. Well, I have good news this week! A cold snap is coming, which will send temperatures plummeting to superb ice making weather. In fact, once the temperature goes below freezing tonight, it may stay there until at least next Sunday. And even then, it may only go above for a brief period. I would recommend making the ice starting tonight, as you will need a few days for the ice to get thick. Also, when the heavy snow comes later in the week, you can just shovel it off. Overall, it looks like a good winter for outdoor rinks this year.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 2 out of 10. This means be prepared for alot of winter weather. For the rest of your Monday, expect a mixture of clouds and sun with a gusty wind developing. It will be turning colder with temperatures falling through the 30’s. Watch for clearing and colder weather tonight, with lows mainly in the teens and lower 20’s. Tuesday will feature sun mixed with clouds, it will continue to be windy and cold with highs near 32. Later in the day, there may be a brief snow squall moving through the area. If you encounter one of these squalls, expect brief whiteout conditions and icy roads.

Right now, New Year’s Eve looks like we will have clearing skies and bitter cold temperatures! When the clock strikes 2014, temperatures will be in the single digits inland, and lower teens in Boston, along with a biting wind chill! Watch for a sunny, bitter cold start for Wednesday, Happy New Year! However, clouds will be increasing during the afternoon. With lighter winds, highs will struggle to make it into the low 20’s.

Expect light snow to rapidly develop during Wednesday night and roads to become slippery, lows will fall back into the teens. Now for Thursday and Friday. There are two camps of thought here. The GFS American computer model is showing a moderate to heavy snowstorm for Thursday and into Friday morning, with say 6 to 12″ of snow accumulation, along with some gusty winds. However, the ECMWF, or the European models paints a different picture. This model is much deeper, slower and stronger with this storm. In fact, if the European were to verify, we would be looking at a major snowstorm, perhaps even turning into a blizzard Thursday night into Friday morning. With this scenerio, we would be looking at very heavy snowfall, in the order of 15 to 25″ of snow,  along with gale force winds. If that weren’t enough, high tides are astronomically high, so we would have to introduce the possibility of moderate to perhaps even major coastal flooding.

At this point, computer models have been all over the place this winter so far. I am not quite ready to pull the trigger just yet on the extreme event per the European. If however the GFS comes around and the two are in agreement, then I will let you know immediately. I will say this, the European model has been a more reliable model in this time frame for major events, compared to the GFS, but we shall see. Needless to say I will be updating my blog on Wednesday, or earlier if needed. After the storm moves by, bitter cold weather will pour into New England on Saturday, where many locations from Boston north and west will wake up to below zero air temperatures. Sunday may modify back up into the mid 30’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating everyone on just how cold temperatures may get during January. I will also have another temperature forecast for outdoor rinks, as well as a ski and snow boarding outlook. In the meantime, be prepared for some harsh winter conditions this week, in other words, typical New England weather!

~Happy New Year!~

Pete

Ice Storms & Record Warm weather! 12/23/13

Good morning! I have alot to talk about in a short period of time, so let’s get right into it!   The weather over this past weekend was nothing short of fascinating! It was the battle of the seasons across New England, as springtime warmth surged into southern New England, winter cold held its ground up north. In fact, while some areas in southern New England basked in record warm temperatures yesterday, a crippling ice storm brought many areas from northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and much of the state of Maine to a standstill yesterday.

So just how warm did it get? Well, believe it or not, many areas in the mid-atlantic region soared up into the lower 70’s over the weekend! This warm weather surged right up to just south of city of Boston, where many towns basked in the 60’s! For the city of Boston, it was a case of close, but maybe next time. Yes, it briefly warmed into the 50’s on Saturday, but in the end, the heavy cold air oozed down the coast from Maine yesterday, chilling Boston back to the upper 30’s. At the same time, some 15 miles to the south in Norwood, it was in the upper 60’s!

With this intense clash of airmasses, you would expect a storm to be brewing. And sure enough, there was quite a storm over the weekend. This storm stretched from New Mexico, all the way to New England! To be honest with you, with such a thermal contrast in temperature, I would of expected an even more severe storm to move through. Not to say that it wasn’t big. In other parts of the country, particularly the midwest, they did get a major storm, with heavy snow, flooding, and tornadoes. Here in New England, the warm moist air is lighter, and lifted up over the colder dense air, resulting in a major ice & snowstorm only for the far reaches of northern New England. Some icing did sneak down the coast of New Hampshire, but nothing like what they got further up north in the interior.

So far, the pattern this winter has not been for the faint of heart. I have never seen a more chaotic upper air pattern heading into winter. It almost appears as if Mother Nature can not decide what she wants to do. Yes, it has been a colder than normal December, especially here in New England. How we got here is another story in itself. The teleconnections that I talked about that control our weather have been, let’s say “different” than what we usually see. You hear me talk about whether we will have an El Nino (warm Pacific Ocean), or La Nina (Cold Pacific Ocean) controlling our weather this winter. Last winter, we had a La Nada, which means we had neither, or we had neutral ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. So far this November and December, the signal has been mixed.

The overall pattern still has a La Ninaish look to me. This type of signal develops troughs troughs of low pressure more in the west, and builds ridges, or milder and dry weather in the east. This pattern was muted during the fall, until the past weekend, when the eastern ridge really intensified, resulting in record warm temperatures. This ridge also weakened this major eastern storm as it made its way to southern New England. Today, we are left with just a period of steady rain. I also believe the ongoing longterm moderate drought conditions are still plaguing the area to receive real meaningful precipitation. 

The other thing we look for for winter weather here in the Boston area is the Greenland Block, also known as the North Atlantic Oscillation. When this is in a negative state, severe winter storms and cold can hit eastern New England. So far, the NAO has been in a highly positive state this December. If this trend were to continue, we can expect only quick moving cold shots and light snowfalls for the rest of this winter. However, I do see some signs of winter coming in full bore as we head into the new year. From what I am seeing, it looks like the NAO may be turning negative as we start the new year. When this happens, we can expect some severe winter weather to move into our region. I am still expecting a bitter cold January, along with several heavy snowstorms to strike…so get ready!

So any chance of a White Christmas? I’m afraid if you live inside of Rt 128 south of the Mass. Pike here in New England, the answer is very unlikely. I was actually a bit surprised just how tough the snowpack hung in there over the weekend where I live here in West Roxbury. I believe it was slow to melt mainly because of the low sun angle, and short days. The warm temperatures and fog eventually melted the snow on the lawns. However, we will be left with some good sized snowbanks, so it won’t be totally green! Further inland, and up north into southern New Hampshire, the thaw was even shorter, and not as much snow melted, so there will be a White Christmas after all!  The other “surprise” may actually be on Cape Cod! Yes, as cold north winds blow over Mass. Bay, there may actually be some snow squalls and flurries on Christmas morning! There may even be enough snow to whiten the ground!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter forecast, I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, not too much wintery weather other than the cold. Look for a steady rain for the rest of this afternoon across the area. If you are traveling to the north of Boston, be aware that some of this could be freezing on contact. Highs will be near 40 here in Boston, but in the low 30’s to the north. Any rain will be ending tonight, perhaps as a touch of snow in some areas, lows will fall into the upper 20’s and low 30’s. 

For Christmas Eve, expect windy and colder weather to start moving in. If there is any left over moisture in the air, the atmosphere may squeeze out a few snow showers. I am not expecting any accumulations. It will be colder, with highs mainly in the mid 30’s. Watch for much colder weather for tomorrow night, with temperatures plummeting into the single digits and teens.

If you are planning to go down the Cape, watch for the possibility of some ocean effect snow squalls along with a gusty north wind. This may continue into Christmas morning, making for possibly a very wintery scene in some places! Otherwise, expect Christmas to feature nearly 100% of the possible sunshine. It will be a cold day, with highs mainly in the 20’s. Expect the dry weather to continue into Christmas night, with lows in the teens.

Look for a bit milder weather on Thursday. At some point during the day, there may be a few light rain or snow showers, highs will mainly be in the 30’s. Watch for mainly dry weather to continue for Friday through Sunday, with highs mainly in the 30’s and lower 40’s. Looking way ahead, we may see some stormy weather as we close out 2013? Or the beginning of the new year? I will have more on that next weekend!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be reviewing the weather we had for December. I will also be previewing the forecast for the first month of our new year. I will also have your ski and snow boarding forecast. By the way, colder weather moving back into ski areas will allow snow making to resume. And remember, many areas up north, especially Maine, did not have a nuclear melt down, so there is still plenty of snow to go skiing! In the meantime, wherever your Christmas may bring you, I wish everyone a peaceful and joyful holiday!

~Thank’s for reading!~

Merry Christmas 

Green Christmas?? 12/16/13

Good Morning! After this weekends storm, it is a brilliant morning across New England. As forecasted, it wasn’t the biggest storm we have seen, but it proved to pack a punch for many. For the most part, I believe the forecast worked out fairly well. Most areas to the north and west of Rt 128 received anywhere between 8 and 14″ of dry, powdery snow. Here in Boston, anywhere from 4 to 7″ fell across the city, before turning to a brief period of rain at the end of the storm. This was followed by a flash freeze yesterday, making clean up much more difficult for a snowfall of that size.

The highlight of the storm for me came close to midnight. I experienced thunder and lightning while heavy snow was falling! Later on, strong easterly winds finally warmed up the lower levels of the atmosphere, changing the heavy snow to rain here in West Roxbury, after close to 7″ of snowfall.

So what’s up with the title of today’s blog? Is it true? After the heavy snow from this past weekend, and even more snow in the forecast for tomorrow, can we still be possibly looking at a Green Christmas this year? Well, after reviewing some of the long range guidance this morning, I’m afraid it may be true. Not for everyone, but I belive for most of us here in eastern Massachusetts, and possibly even up into coastal New Hampshire, the answer may be yes. Typically, the chances for a true White Christmas is not so good around here anyway.

To have a White Christmas, there must be at least 1″ of snow on the ground on Christmas morning to qualify. Other folks have different interpretations. Some believe that there must be snow falling and accumulating on the day itself. Still others believe snow on Christmas Eve and waking up to a white landscape on Christmas morning.

What’s a weatherman’s opinion? I believe there should be a deeper accumulation of snow on the ground. Maybe 1″ of snow is good enough for folks down south, but for me, I like at least 4″ of snow on the ground. And it must of fallen just before the day, or on the day itself. Not some storm two weeks before Christmas that’s old and and crusty, and just barely hanging on by the time Christmas comes. That’s just my opinion.

As mentioned earlier, our chances for a White Christmas are typically not that good. This is especially true the closer you live to the ocean. This is because the ocean is still warm this time of year, and can either change any snow to rain, or it melts it quickly after it falls. On average, Boston has a 1 and 4 chance at a White Christmas, or about 25%. As you move inland away from the ocean, your chances increase rather dramatically. Worcester, for example, has a 60% chance of a White Christmas on average. If you live in Vermont, New Hampshire or Maine, your chances are even better, except if you live along the seacoast. People who live close to the ocean  have a 40% to 50% chance of a White Christmas. However, as you travel inland, these chances increase up to 75% of the time. Further up north, in the deep interior of Maine, you have a nearly a 100% chance of a White Christmas!

So why does it look more green than white to me? Well, as cold and snowy as it is now, it looks like the pattern is going to turn warm and wet just before Christmas…yuk. After the warmer temperatures and soaking rains, there may be just some old piles of snow hanging around. The computer models have been waffling back and forth on this idea all week. At one point, it looked like there could be one more storm in the series centered around Christmas Day itself. And with colder weather moving back in, a Christmas Day snowstorm was a possibility! This morning, I saw no evidence of this type of scenerio on the computer models. The early call for Christmas Day from right now, is for sunny weather, and seasonable temperatures, which is mainly in the 30’s. Sorry to be the Grinch who stole the White Christmas! It’s still a bit early, and things could still change!

I know most people out there are fans of summer, and warm weather. However, there are a few hardy souls, such as myself, who love winter weather, cold and storms! There are also a number of people who enjoy outdoor winter activities. This includes snow skiing, snow shoeing, snow mobiling, ice fishing, and outdoor ice skating. This is part of the beauty of living in New England, is that it offers a climate type for everyone!

There are also some folks who construct outdoor skating rinks for their kids to play ice hockey and ice skating on. So far, most of this December has been a winter bonus, with mainly below normal temperatures. I still believe a bitter cold January is on the way. To get there, however, it looks like we will have to go through about a 3 to 5 day period of above average temperatures coming up right before Christmas. This warm period may also be accompanied by some heavy rainfall. After all, it can’t stay cold all of the time. It gets warm even in Alaska sometimes in the winter! After Christmas, look for progressively colder weather to settle into New England as we head into the New Year. So hang in there…it’s still early!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. On the winter index, let’s call it a 5 this week. We will have plenty of winter weather early, and milder and rainy conditions later, so I will split the difference. Look for brilliant sunshine glistening against the snow for the rest of today. It will actually turn colder, with temperatures falling into the upper teens by this evening! Along with the cold, a gusty wind will add to the bite to the air.

Tonight will feature bitter cold temperatures along with increasing high clouds. If you are up later, you might see a halo around the waxing moon. Low temperatures will fall into the single digits and low teens! Look for clouds to rapidly thicken Tuesday morning, with snow developing from west to east by noontime. Snow may fall moderately to even heavy at times for a time Tuesday afternoon, making for a difficult evening commute. Snow will diminish in intensity Tuesday night, but may not stop entirely. In fact, there may be another brief burst of steadier snow overnight Tuesday, into first thing Wednesday. After all is said and done, I am expecting a general 3 to 6″ of snow across most of eastern Massachusetts. This includes the New Hampshire & Maine seacoast regions.

Later Wednesday, skies will clear with temperatures mainly in the upper 20’s and low 30’s. Look for the full Cold Moon on Wednesday night under clear skies!  Expect dry and somewhat milder weather for Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 30’s and lower 40’s, and lows in the 20’s and low 30’s.

Temperatures will warm further this weekend, with a chance of some rain showers on Saturday with highs in the 40’s. Right now, a more significant rain storm along with warm temperatures may push through the area on Sunday and into Monday. Temperatures may warm into the 50’s! Expect clearing and cooler temperatures thereafter as we move into Christmas.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will finalize my forecast for Christmas Day itself. I will also have a forecast for folks planning on going skiing during the Christmas holiday week. I will also take a look at the  forecast for the rest of 2013! In the meantime, not to be a scrooge, I will keep working on that White Christmas…you never know!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete