Weekend snowstorm! 12/13/13

Hi folks. Just had a chance to review the latest computer models, and I wanted to update everyone with the impending winter storm coming for this weekend.

Well… here we go!  After reviewing the latest data, it now appears as if  a significant, albeit fast moving winter storm/nor’easter will impact much of central and eastern New England starting by mid-afternoon tomorrow. Although not one of our biggest storms that we have seen, will be siginificant in its own right. The fact that this is happening, still in the first half of December, is noteworthy.

If this trend were to continue, which I am fairly confident it will, we can expect even larger storms beginning sometime after Christmas and heading well into January. As my winter forecast pointed out, this may turn into a wicked old fashioned winter, with heavy snows, followed by bitter cold weather. I’m getting ahead of myself!

So let’s get into the details. Our storm is now developing as an area of moisture in the south central states associated with the sub-tropical jet stream. At the same time, energy from the northern jet stream is diving southeast towards the mid-atlantic region. While not actively phasing together, the interaction between the two will spawn a new low pressure area somewhere near New Jersey. While all of this is happening, a strong area of high pressure is building north of New England, supplying us with fresh cold air.

This is critical. Not only will it supply us with cold air, but it will also act as a block, forcing the storm to pass east of Cape Cod and Boston. As this is happening, the storm will rapidly intensify, sending a plume of heavy moisture up into eastern Massachusetts, southeast N.H., and most of Maine. With the cold air banked up to our north, alot of this moisture will be falling as heavy snow. Most computer models are painting 1 to 1.25″ of liquid precipitation. As a rule of thumb, 1″ of liquid equates to about 10″ of snow.

Many other factors come into play that can change this equation. If the air is colder, and the snow is dryer, a term called the “fluff factor” can actually accumulate the snow much higher, sometimes even double the amount! However, if it’s a wetter snow, or any mixing occurs with rain or sleet, these amounts can diminish to even half this amount. As you can see, it can become a tricky business predicting forecast snow amounts!

If this falls as all snow where you live, you can expect anywhere from 8 to 12″ of snow to fall. Now, because many of us live right next to the ocean, there may be some complications, which I will explain in my forecast. Fortunately, it will be a fairly fast moving storm, as we don’t have a Greenland Block in the negative phase to slow the storm down. Had it been in the negative phase, we could of been looking at a storm with the same type of intensity as the blizzard of last February!

Now for your storm forecast! Look for some increasing high clouds to overspread the area tonight. With the waxing moon, you may get a chance to see a halo around the moon later! It will be very cold, with lows mainly in the teens. Watch for lowering and thickening clouds tomorrow. It will look like snow is on the way, and sure enough, watch for some light now and flurries to begin falling sometime after noon. It will remain cold with highs mainly in the 20’s. Watch for the snow to pick up in intensty after dark tomorrow, and roads to become slippery. Winds will also begin to increase from the east northeast. As we head towards midnight, heavy snow will begin to overspread much of the Greater Boston area along with a gusty wind at times from the east northeast. From about midnight tomorrow night until approx. 8:00 am Sunday, snow rates may reach 1 to 2 inches per hour. At this rate, we can expect a general 8 to 12″ of snow to have fallen by the time the storm ends.

Now for the tricky part. With it still being early in the season, the ocean temperatures are still a bit on the warm side. If the storm passes close to the Cape, winds may veer in more of an easterly direction right along the coast including Boston. This may briefly warm up the temperatures to slightly above the freezing mark and mix the snow with sleet or rain for a time. So if you live within 5 miles of the ocean in eastern Massachusetts, amounts may be cut back a bit, say in the 6″ to 8″ range. If you live further away from the ocean in the West Roxbury, Newton, Needham areas, amounts should increase to 8 to 10″. Same holds true just north of Boston in the towns of Melrose, Medford and Woburn, where a good 10 to 12″ should fall. Further inland to the north and west of Rt 128 from Worcester, up to Nashua N.H. , up to Portland, Maine, amounts should increase to 10 to 14″. Further in the interior of New Hampshire and up in ski country, less precipitation may fall, however it will be colder, so you too can expect anywhere between 6 and 12″ of snow!

If you live south of Boston, this is another tricky call. Look for a burst of snow on the Cape with a quick 2 to 4″ accumulating before it turns to rain. As you travel off the Cape into interior southeastern Massachusetts, this is where the heaviest precipitation will fall from the storm, but there will be temperature boundary issues in the atmosphere. From a line from Providence, to Taunton over to Plymouth, you can expect a solid 3 to 6″ of snow to fall before it mixes with sleet and freezing rain, possibly changing to all rain as you head over to Plymouth, Scituate and Hull areas. This will keep accumulations down, and make for a sloppy mess. The further north you travel from there, from Easton to Brockton and Randolph areas, snow accumulations will increase rapidly, ranging from 5 to 10″ with less mixing.

Well that’s about it for now! Stay tuned for updates as there will always be some surprises with storms like this! Keep safe, and I will see everyone at my usual post time on Monday morning! This is my current thinking. If there are any major changes, I will update this blog on Twitter and  Facebook.

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

More snow on the way…12/9/13

Hello! It has been a difficult morning for many, including myself. The first winter situation has arrived for many this morning, and as they say in life, “timing is everything.” Light snows spread up into New England overnight from the mid-atlantic region, resulting in slow going, slippery travel and accidents all over the place this morning. As is the case with many winter situations, it’s not necessarily the amount of snow that falls, but when it falls, and how cold the surface is when it falls.

We had a cold weekend, and when the snow began to fall very late last night, it adhered to the surface almost immediately. Add a coating of sleet and freezing rain on top of that, and you have the recipe for a disasterous Monday morning commute. Most areas within 20 miles of the eastern Massachusetts coastline have now warmed up safely above freezing, so driving and walking conditions have improved significantly for this afternoons commute.

It’s not like it was not forecasted by me. Last weeks blog talked about possibly our first taste of winter coming up for today. If anything, I maybe should of wrote a quick update yesterday pertaining to this event. It seemed like the computer models actually did a better job picking up this storm from a week ago. Down in the mid-atlantic region, an unexpected full blown snowstorm struck the region, especially in the Philadelphia area, where up to a foot of snow fell! In fact, Philadelphia received more snow yesterday, than they got all of last season!

Folks, this is a very changeable and volatile patterns setting up this winter. One that is going to surprise many as we move through this winter. I have been studying the weather nearly all of my life, and don’t ever recall seeing as much disagreement amongst computer models regarding our future pattern. There are about 15 computer models meteorologists and weather enthusiasts like myself use to help us forecast the weather. For whatever reason, each one of these models are interpreting the winter differently. This is when human intuition and past experience in predicting New England winters come into play. Not that you throw the computer models away. No, you digest all of this information, including the computer models, and come up with the best forecast that you can possibly do.

So what’s my take on the upcoming pattern? As I have already said in my winter forecast a couple weeks ago, I still believe we are in for a wild ride! If this recent cold snap that affected much of the country last week is any indication, watch out New England! You would think this cold weather and blizzards would autimatically hit New England, right? Well, not necessarily. I have always said that New England has a different climate than the rest of the country.

This is especially true when we transition from autumn to winter, and then again from winter to spring. The reason for the difference in climate is the phenominon called latent heating and cooling. In the fall, it takes longer for the ocean to cool off than the land. This mutes the early onslought of winter reaching New England, whereas other ares of the country feel the full effects immediately. In the spring the opposite occurs, when the land heats up faster than the water, keeping New England colder deeper into the spring than other areas of the country.

In addition, New England is situated in a unique position on our planet. We are located exactly between the North Pole and the Equator, with the moisture of the Atlantic Ocean to our right, and cold, dry air of Canada to our north and to our west, and you have a potential for disaster!  Throw in the warm current of  Gulf Stream just to our southeast, and you have a meteorological time bomb ready to go off! When these factors mix together, is when we get some of our biggest storms.

So we have many factors going into figuring out New England weather, no wonder why the computer models are so confused! It’s not really the forecast that they are having trouble with, but more with the teleconnections of the patterns across the whole world. Teleconnections are the certain patterns that occur around the world, that have implications on what type of weather you can expect in your region of the world. For instance, a certain pattern in Alaska, can mean the difference between cold or warm weather here in New England. Right now, teleconnections are changing day to day, causing great variance in what type of weather we can expect here in New England.

As we move closer to the winter solstice, I believe we can expect a progressively colder and stormier weather pattern unfolding. In addition, there are signs that a weak El Nino may begin to develop as we move into the new year. If this were to happen, I expect severe winter weather to unfold here in New England. The reason being is an El Nino will energize the southern jet stream with moisture laden storms from the Pacific. Mix this with the arctic cold weather from Canada, and the potential is there  for some significant winter storms coming.

We may already be seeing the signs of this coming up this week. As quickly as this small storm leaves our area later today, another small storm will develop in the mid-atlantic region tomorrow and head north. As it bumps into colder air here in southern New England, we may be in store for a snowy day tomorrow, especially in the Boston to Providence corridor. Later this week, another storm has the potential to bring us our first significant snowstorm of the season. As we move towards Christmas, more storms may develop. At this point, it’s a little too early to tell whether all of these will be all snow/rain, or a mixture of the two. But my feeling is many of us have a good chance of a real white Christmas this year!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10. Remember, in the winter, the lower the rating, the more wintery the weather is. For the rest of today, expect some leftover light rain & drizzle. It will warm up along the coast to near 40. Well inland and into New Hampshire, expect some freezing drizzle, with temps hovering near 32. Look for some patchy freezing drizzle and icy areas tonight, as temperatures fall to near freezing in many towns.

Tuesday will be cold, with light snow spreading into the area from southwest to northeast. Watch for a messy evening commute tomorrow, with snow falling and slippery travel. Snow will end later in the night after accumulations of 2 to 4″ across the Boston area. Not a big one, but it may just be a warm up for what’ coming.

Expect sunny but colder weather for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs mainly in the 20’s and low 30’s and lows in the teens and lower 20’s. Our next storm system may be on the way for Friday and Saturday. If we look at the more reliable European model, a storm with plenty of moisture will be sliding just to our south. With a cold high pressure to our north, this could set the stage for a major winter storm in New England. With this type of track, areas north of the Mass. Pike could be looking at a significant snowstorm with a foot or more of snow possible.

Folks who live south of the pike would run the risk of mixed precipitation, which would hold accumulations down. Boston is right on the line and could go either way at this point. As the storm pulls out to sea, and winds will veer more to the north, with everyone changing back to wet snow on Saturday before it ends. Sunday would be sunny and colder.

With all this being said, the American model GFS has a completely different solution with this storm. This model splits the energy, with one storm going north of New England, and another going south. With this solution, a warmer storm would occur, with less snow & less precipitation. Right now, I am siding with the more accurate European model. I will update this blog with this potential storm as we move through the week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about New England’s chances of getting a white Christmas this year! I will also be breaking down the statistical chances for where you live in New England for seeing a white Christmas. I will also have an updated ski and outdoor skating rink forecast! In the meantime, it’s time to start preparing for winter weather, and also a white Christmas!

~Thanks for reading~

Pete

Keeping an eye on winter…12/2/13

Hello to all! I hope everyone had a relaxing and fulfilling Thanksgiving holiday weekend! I know mine was very fulfilling, as I must go back on the diet before the next round of holidays come around! I am grateful to have such good family and friends to spend time with during the holidays. I am also grateful for being able to spend time with my sister and brother in-law up here in coastal New Hampshire. It’s a welcome change from the hustle and bustle of the city, and always gives me a new perspective on life when I return.

As for the weather, well, let’s just say it has been very New England like. Overall, I would say we got very lucky over the holiday. With that being said, there were a couple periods of inclement weather that caused some problems around the region. First, a wind driven, soaking rainstorm slowed everything down on the busiest travel day of the year last Wednesday. It was an interesting storm because we had cold air before the storm, and cold air right after the storm. As the storm hit, temperatures soared up into the 60’s. In addition, southerly gales made it feel quite tropical.

After the storm pulled into the Canadian Maritimes, strong westerly winds plummeted temperatures on Thursday, making this the coldest Thanksgiving Day in Boston since 2002! If your travels brought you to Upstate New York, or interior Pennsylvania, heavy snow and ice made for hazardous driving conditions. As we concluded the holiday weekend, a small storm brought icy driving conditions to parts of interior New England yesterday. If you didn’t happen to hear, a 70 car pile up in worcester was a result of light rain falling onto frozen road surfaces, resulting in the accidents. Amazingly, there were no fatalities (although I believe someone’s dog died). As I have mentioned before, some of our worst driving conditions do not occur when we have our heavy snowstorms and blizzards. Black ice and freezing rain is by far the most dangerous weather situation during the winter.

Speaking of winter, we have now entered the start of meteorological winter! Yes, yesterday was the first day of winter, as the meteorology calander goes. Instead of overlapping the months, they break it down into 4 quarters, with December, January, and February making up the three months of winter. This just makes it easier for them to keep records of the four seasons. Astronomic winter officially does not arrive until December 21 st this year.

Last week, I published my official forecast for the upcoming winter here in New England. Over the holiday weekend I received some interesting feedback as a result of my forecast. From what I am looking at, there still is nothing that would leave me to believe anything different. After I made the forecast, I continued studying all of the teleconnections, ocean temperatures and natural signals to see if I had overlooked anything. All I can say is that I did the very best that I could to come up with the closest theory possible in making my forecast. As I mentioned last week, this has been a very challenging year in trying to determine what type of winter we are going to have. Mother Nature is throwing many conflicting signals at us, which almost makes it impossible to figure out at times.

With all that being said, friends and family still wanted to know when the first real snowstorm is coming! This is a good question. After a November that finished 2 degrees below normal at Logan Airport, December started off yesterday with November like conditions. Despite the timetables that meteorologists put on the seasons, Mother Nature goes at her own pace. For this reason, I  believe that the  true pattern of the winter will not show its face until around the official start of winter solstice, December 21 st. Astronomically speaking, we are still officially in the autumn season. It’s around this time, when I believe, a weak El Nino will develop. When this happens, it will re-arrange the jet stream, allowing for bitter cold weather from Canada to encompass New England, especially in January. In addition, I expect the southern jet stream to become more active supplying abundant moisture. When these two streams of air mix, the result will be above average amounts of snowfall across most of New England.

Even before that happens, I believe we still will have the opportunity for a couple chances of wintery weather before Christmas. Most of this week looks to be a bit on the milder side here in New England. However, patterns across the country will become very unstable. While it warms up a bit here, an early season cold wave will be attacking much of the western part of the country. As the week moves along, this cold air will slowly be oozing into New England. As the cold air settles into the region over the weekend, a storm may begin to gather over the south, and start to head northeast. Come a week from today, we may be looking at our first snowfall of the season across the Boston area if the cold air meets the moisture at just the right time. Overall, I am expecting December to average out with below normal temperatures, and above normal snowfall. Average snow at Logan Airport for December is around 8″. With the overall pattern setting up, I am expecting possibly double this amount by the end of the month.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity & ski forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect fairly gloomy weather to persist for the rest of your Monday. If we’re lucky , we may see some brightening of the overcast before the sun goes down. High temperatures will mainly be in the 40’s. Watch for mostly cloudy weather overnight, with lows mainly in the 30’s.

A storm will pass to the east of us on Tuesday, this will keep the clouds hanging tough along the coast, along with the small chance of some light rain along extreme coastal areas and over the Cape. Otherwise, the sun may begin to come out during the afternoon. It will be fairly mild, with highs once again in the 40’s.

Look for Wednesday to be the brightest day of the week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 40’s again. Clouds may be on the increase again on Thursday, and there may be a few showers during the afternoon. It will be mild, with highs in the 50’s. Right now, a slow moving cold front will be approaching New England on Friday. You can expect an increasing chance of rain developing, along with cooler temperatures manily in the 40’s.

It will be turning colder over the weekend, with high dropping into the 30’s. If there is any remaining moisture, the rain may end as a little sleet and snow. Otherwise, it will just end and remain on the chilly side.  I don’t see any accumulations from that situation. At this point, Sunday looks to be dry and on the cold side. Sun may fade behind increasing clouds during the day.

As I mentioned earlier, we may have a winter weather situatuion developing at the start of next week, I will keep you posted on this if conditions warrant. Expect similar weather up in ski country this week, with colder weather arriving earlier, there may be some natural snow on Friday? Otherwise, they too may have to wait until next week for snow.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a more in depth look to see if there are any major storms to be aware of for December. I will also be starting to take a look at our chances for a white Christmas this year! I will also be introducing a critical temperature forecast, for  folks who will be making outdoor skating rinks this winter! In the meantime, no real winter weather coming up this week. Next week may be a different story, I will be sure to be keeping an eye out for that just in case!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Winter 2013-14…Bitter cold/Heavy snow! 11/25/13

Hello! For the first time since I began writing this blog nearly four years ago, winter has arrived before I have published my official winter forecast. Yes, we have had some chilly days here in November, but nothing could compare to the bitter arctic blast that greeted everyone yesterday. Temperatures across the region were some 20 degrees below average, making it feel more like mid-January rather than late November! Officially no temperature records were set, however, it did turn out to be the coldest November home game in Patriots history! By the way, if you havn’t heard, the Patriots actually came all the way back and won the game! The record speaks for itself, when the Pats play in adverse weather such as cold & snow…we win!

So where do we go from here? Well, we have alot to talk about today, so let’s get right into it. We have a very important travel week, the first day of meteorological winter, and the winter forecast all to talk about! I will discuss the Thanksgiving weather details in my forecast a bit later, so let’s start off with my thoughts on the weather for the upcoming winter season.

As I have said before, forecasting the weather here in New England is tough enough for a few days at a time, never mind for a whole season…especially as changeable as winter! There is nobody on this earth who knows better than Mother Nature herself. Though I have not earned a degree in meteorology, I do possess an uncanny ability in understanding the weather…specifically the weather here in New England.

So what can we expect for this winter? Well, I have to be up front with everyone. Out of all of the years of making a forecast for the winter, this one has been especially difficult. I begin formulating this forecast way back in August, and to this date, all the pieces of the puzzle are still not in place. Not that I’m not confident in what I believe is going to happen, but how I got there was an adventure in dealing with all of curve balls Mother Nature throws at you.

To help me come up with my forecast, I refer to some 18 different natural signals. In addition I read countless technical discussions from various outlets such as WeatherBell Analytics, Accuweather.com, NOAA, and of course, all of the the local professional meteorologists who all to a great job in forecasting. I also look at things such as the ocean temperatures, sun spot cycles, early season Canadian & Siberian snow cover, autumn precipitation trends. And finally, the most important one, temperature trends during the month of November. There are other important nature signs such as the amount of acorns, geese flying south, how thick the fog is in October, volcanic activity, and how frisky the squirrels have been!

With all this being said, you can expect a much colder, and another snowy winter ahead for us here in most of New England this year. November temperatures at Logan airport are going to come in just below normal for the month. I have studied this signal carefully, and the years when temperatures fall into this category at Logan airport, snowfall tends to be above average. Sometimes, well above normal. What is average? Well, at Logan airport they average approximately 44″ of snow per season. This can vary widely from year to year. In addition, surrounding areas usually receive much more snowfall than at the airport. Many communities away from the ocean can average anywhere from 50 to 60″ per year.

Every winter is relative to how people remember it. They come in many different flavors. Many people believe it’s cold every winter. They tend to remember a severity of a winter on how much snow fell. True, without snow, you have a forgetful winter such as two years ago. Yes, last year was snowy, but when you averaged out the temperatures for the entire winter, it was actually a milder than normal winter for most. It only seemed to get cold right when the storm was coming. After, temperatures would warm up right away, melting the snow quickly. What if we combined snowfall like last year, plus bitter cold temperatures for weeks at a time? That’s how you measure the winter severity index. The hardship would be much greater on the region with a winter conditions such as that.

If you live in Boston, you can expect between 50 and 70″ of snowfall this winter. Further inland and to the north and west of the city, you can expect between 60 and 80″ of snow. Same is true for folks living south of Boston towards the Cape. You can expect above average amounts of snow with between 40 and 60″ falling. If you live along the New Hampshire and Maine, seacoast region, you can expect a particularly fierce winter, with snowfall between 80 and 100″. Further inland, in the mountains, they too can expect heavy snowfall this winter, with seasonal totals between 150 and 250″ of snow. This means another great year of skiing and snowboarding is on the way! In addition to the heavy snow expected, bitter cold weather, especially in January, will make this winter the worse in 20 years.

What can go wrong? Lots. Currently, the Pacific Ocean is in a La Nada state. Meaning there’s no El Nino (warm water), nor is there a La nina (cold water). If a weak El Nino were to develop around Christmas time, this could make for an even more severe winter than I am forcasting. This would energize the southern jet stream, and when mixed with the cold air to the north, could result in prolific snowfall in our region. On the flip side, if it were to tilt toward a weak La Nina, snowfall would be about 20% less than forecasted, and bitter cold would be brief, with warmer intervals. As I say every year, Mother Nature always has the last word, we don’t have much of a choice!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect cold weather with sunshine for the rest of today, with highs mainly in the mid 30’s. A brisk wind will make it feel more like the 20’s at times. It will remain clear and cold overnight, with lows mainly in the 20’s. Watch for milder weather to move into the region tomorrow, along with increasing high clouds during the day High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 40’s by the afternoon.

A significant storm will effect New England starting tomorrow night. If you live in eastern New England, withing 60 miles of the coast, you can expect a wind swept soaking rainstorm starting late Tuesday night, lasting well into Wednesday. Along with the heavy rain, expect southeast gales up to 50 mph. It will end up feeling very warm and humid compared to recent weather, with highs near 60! In the deep interior, like Vermont and extreme western Ma. and New York state, there will be a period of mixed precipitation and possibly some hazardous traveling. Even here, the warm air may penetrate changing it to plain rain, before changing back to snow on the backside of the storm. If you live way up north, and upstate New York, you may have to deal with a significant winter storm.

Regardless of what happens on Wednesday, the weather for Thanksgiving Day will feature blustery and much colder conditions. The day may start cloudy with a few passing flurries, but the sun should make an appearance during the afternoon. It will be a cold & wintery looking day, with high temperatures barely to 32 degrees.

Expect fair and cold weather to continue for Friday and Saturday, with highs mainly in the 30’s and low 40’s. A weak system may spread some clouds in on Sunday with a small chance of some light rain or snow showers.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be evaluating the start of winter, and sharing with you any new developments in the weather patterns. I will also be on the look out for Boston’s first snowfall of the season! If you have any questions about my winter forecast or the weather in general, you can always e-mail me at Peter.Pappas12@gmail.com or info@hrappliance.com, I would be happy to chat! In the meantime, get the winter artillery ready, we may be in for a war!

~Happy Thanksgiving to all!~

Pete

Battle of the seasons…11/18/13

Hello, once again!  Looking out the weather window this morning, the sun has emerged after the rain! In fact, I think we will have a unexpected taste of Indian Summer today! Since everyone in New England has experienced its first freeze, and with temperatures closing in on 70 today, yes, I say this classifies as Indian Summer…a brief one. A more classic definition of Indian Summer is three days or more with warm sunny weather,  light winds, after a first freeze. From what I am seeing, I would  try and get out and enjoy today. This could be the warmest it’s going to be here in Boston, until maybe sometime next April! Tomorrow will be a good 25 degrees colder than today, and with a gusty northwest wind, we will have to start introducing the wind chill factor!

As I have mentioned before, it has been an unprecedented stretch of dry, tranquil weather around here. In fact, despite the showers of this morning, eastern Massachusetts is officially still in a moderate drought. Typically, November is one of our wettest and cloudiest months of the year. Despite yesterday’s cloudy, gloomy weather, its been a very sunny, dry month so far. Looking at the latest weather charts this morning, I believe things are about to change. There is a major battle currently going on with Mother Nature. It’s the battle of the seasons. Perhaps you have noticed the wild fluctuations in temperatures this month. One day we have the heat on with frigid temperatures. Two days later we’re scrambling to find the spring jacket once again!

So what does this all mean? Well, in the short term, I believe the patterns are becoming very unstable right now. Perhaps you heard about the super typhoon in the Philippines? Or the super outbreak of severe weather and tornadoes in the midwest yesterday? Make no mistake about it, despite our recent benign weather, the earth and weather are alive, and the wrath of Mother Nature is going to make its presence felt here in New England soon enough.

Looking at the latest long range computer models, I believe the rest of November will turn colder and stormier to close out the month. We will have two storms coming, one this weekend, and then another around Thanksgiving. With colder air moving in, does this mean snow? Well, it depends where you live in New England. The ocean is still very warm off our coast in November. This acts as two things. First, with the baroclinic temperature imbalance between the warm ocean and the cold land, it can intensify nor’easters rapidly as they approach New England. Second,the warm ocean can modify areas of the coastal plain, changing any snow to rain. However, if you live in the interior of New England, away from the ocean’s influence, you may be in for  back to back heavy snows, making Thanksgiving look more like Christmas time. This would be great news for New England ski resorts heading into the official start of the ski season (Thanksgiving weekend).

This is still preliminary, and things can still change. Looking at the computer models is like looking at a ping pong match. One run they swing one way, and another run they swing back. There are indications, as we head towards Thanksgiving, that the NAO, also known as the Greenland Block, suddenly shifts to a negative state. If this were to occur, it could force the storm a bit further offshore, building more cold air along the coastal plain, resulting in a much more wintery situation for coastal areas from Boston to Portland, Maine. Along with my official winter forecast, I will have your important travel forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a week from today…so stay tuned!

Speaking of my winter forecast, I am pulling all of my resources to come up with the most accurate forecast that I can. I am keeping a very close eye on the temperature profiles at Logan airport. So far, it has been like watching the Stock Market. One day it’s up, next day down. After today, I believe we may be about one degree above normal. However, colder air is once again moving back into tonight. We may warm up to slightly above normal briefly once again about Friday of this week. But it looks more cold than warm for the rest of the month.

This is very important. If temperatures at Logan airport finish right at normal, or slightly below, I can tell you there is about a 90% chance of above normal amounts of snow coming up this winter (perhaps even much above average). Average snow at Logan airport for a winter season is 44″, with much more falling  inland away from the ocean. Right now, computer models are all over the place, and offer no real help in determining what’s coming. This is why I have to use natural clues to help me determine the winter forecast. Other clues I look for to help me forecast the winter are: sudden pattern changes at the end of November, Pacific and Atlantic ocean temperatures, solar flux cycles, and volcanic activity to name a few.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Look for Indian Summer like weather today, with sun mixed with fast moving clouds, highs will be in the upper 60’s. Which is about 20 degrees above normal! It will turn windy and colder tonight with lows dropping into the 20’s and 30’s region wide.

Expect much colder weather tomorrow. After the chance of a few flurries in the morning, look for mostly sunny weather, with highs only in the lower 40’s. With a stiff northwest wind at times, it will make it feel alot colder at times. Tuesday night will feature dry conditions, under mostly clear skies, it will cold, with lows mainly in the 20’s and low 30’s.

Expect dry weather to continue Wednesday through Friday, with highs mainly in the 40’s Wednesday and Thursday, possibly moderating to the low 50’s on Friday. Right now, I am expecting a storm to move through New England later Saturday into Sunday morning. At this point, I am expecting mainly rain inside of Rt. 495 and up the N.H. and Maine coast inside of Rt. 95. However, with colder air charging in behind the developing storm, there may be some acculating heavy snow across Vermont, interior N.H., and all of the mountains. After the storm moves by, watch for cold weather on the heals of strong northwesterly winds to pour into New England. It looks windy & cold for the Patriots game against Denver next Sunday night.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be publishing my official winter forecast for the 2013-14 season! I will also have an important updated forecast for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. In the meantime, get ready for an epic battle not only with the seasons, but also with the Patriots/Panthers football game tonight!

~Thanks for reading~

Pete

First snow…then Indian Summer? 11/11/13

Happy Veterans’ Day! Just wanted to say thank you to all of the men and women who sacrifice their lives to protect this country, and to help sustain our freedom which we have today! Sometimes we  get caught up in our day to day lives, we tend to forget the importance of our military, especially in today’s world! Please keep our veterans and current service people in your thoughts and prayers today, if only for a moment.

Good morning! Are you ready for a bit of snow and winter like temperatures? Well, I guess that all depends who you are asking! I think the majority of folks aren’t too happy about this. However, there is a group of people, including myself, that cherish the changing of the seasons, and are also big fans of winter. In typical Mother Nature fashion, she will try and appease everyone this week by offering a taste of winter, then some Indian Summer! This will be an official Indian Summer, since everyone has received their first freeze, and many of the trees have dropped their leaves.

Over this past weekend I attended an important event to remember a good friend who unexpectedly passed away earlier this year. It was a good time to get together with friends to pay tribute to a good man. While catching up, a couple of my friends asked me about the upcoming winter and if any snow is coming. If they had asked me a couple days earlier, I would of said that a early season snowstorm was possible for this week.

One of the more reliable computer models, the European, was actually showing a massive storm hammering southern New England on Wednesday and Thursday with gale force winds and heavy wet snow. Being skeptical of such a scenerio a week away, I decided to wait for future computer runs before sounding the alarm. As it turned out, the atmosphere didn’t pan out the way the computer model was showing. The two pieces of energy set to merge to cause one big storm, are to remain seperate, sparing us the big storm.

It’s not that a storm like that could not happen. Climatologically speaking, it is still much too early for a storm like that to hit. However, you only need to go back a couple of years to the massive early season snowstorm in late October that buried some parts of Massachusetts with two feet of snow! For those who love winter, me included, snow in October typically does not mean a snowy winter is on the way. In fact, it usually is a sign of a mild winter with very little snow. And in fact, the following winter was one of the warmest and least snowy on record here in New England!

So what about this year? Many would like to know what kind of a winter should we expect this year. As I talked about in last week’s blog, I look for 18 different signals to help me determine my forecast for the upcoming winter. My official forecast will not be published until November 25th. However, from what I am looking at so far, winter is coming, and it may be a tough one here in New England. Up to this point, there have been some mixed signals. But I am encouraged with the timing of things so far here in Boston.

For instance, Boston’s Logan airport has already received its first freeze, back on November 3rd. This is a few days ahead of schedule (average is November 7th). Studies have shown a direct correlation with when the first freeze occurs and what type of a winter follows. Freezes that happen well after the average date, is a sign of less than normal snow around here.

November temperatures also play a very important role in how much snowfall we receive. November’s which average more than 2 degrees above average, historically have less than normal snow the following winter (average snow at Logan airport is 44″). However, years where the average for November is closer to average, or just slightly below, watch out! In those years, snowfall can sometimes be double what the typical average is!

Right now, I am not calling for 90″ of snow to fall in Boston. However, with all of this up and down temperature swings in November, the average just may come out very close to normal. We are a third of the way through the month, and temperatures are about average so far.

Another sign that I look for is early season snow cover in Siberia and Canada. When the snow fields build up with early season snows in these parts of the world, it many times transpires to cold and snow in the eastern part of the United States. So far, snow cover and cold has been above average, even more than last year. So I will continue to monitor this trend. The bottom line is, the earlier the train gets out of the station with cold, the better chance we have at above normal snow.

With all that being said, I am a bit concerned with the lack of precipitation and storms so far this fall. As one of my friends at the party said, “Pete, it’s been so boring for so many months.” This is a very good observation. Eastern Massacusetts has now been classified as a moderate drought zone. This is something to be concerned about going forward. There has barely been any rain over the past four months. In fact, we are now a good 6″ below average for the year! One of the signs I look for is for precipitation trends, especially as we move through November. I remember last November was on the dry side as well. Believe it or not, November is typically one of our wettest months. I find it hard to believe we make it through another November without a significant weather event. Later in the month, the NAO is slated to go negative, and with colder weather clashing with warm water off our coast , it may be catalyst for a signifant storm.

Speaking of storms, over this past weekend, Super Typhoon Haiyan, a.k.a. Yolanda, slammed into the Philippines with a force like no other. A typhoon is another name they use in this part of the world for a hurricane. And make no mistake about it, this was as bad as it gets folks. On a scale of 1 to 5, this storm was actually off the charts! They are calling it the strongest storm ever recorded on earth!  It may be weeks before we find out just how many people have perished with this catastrophy. Needless to say, early reports have estimated over 10,000 people have died, with this number likely to rise in the coming days. 

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Not much precipitation again, but some wild temperature swings. Watch for increasing clouds for the rest of your holiday. It will be seasonal with highs near 50. A arctic cold front will be slicing through New England tonight. As this moves through, a band of rain will develop during the early morning hours.

As the cold air rushes in behind the front, the rain may flip to a period of snow first thing tomorrow morning. If you are driving on the roads, this could be a very dangerous situation. Sometimes, a flash freeze occurs, icing up roads without notice, resulting in  treacherous driving for a time. Especially since this will be our first taste of winter time driving. Tuesday may start out with a burst of snow in the morning with accumulations of a coating to up to an inch in some places.

Later, the sun should be back out after noon, but it will turn windy and colder. Highs will struggle to 42 degrees, and remain in the 30’s in the interior. Winter cold will be the rule for Tuesday night, with lows in the teens and twenties. Wednesday will feature some sun and clouds, but it will feel more like mid December, with highs only in the 30’s!

Look for somewhat milder weather moving in for Thursday. Highs should mainly be in the 40’s to near 50. Now for a spell of Indian Summer… Friday through Sunday look to be warmer, with highs near 60 Friday and Saturday, and possibly in the 60’s on Sunday! It should be mainly dry throughout this period, with some sun mixed with clouds. Sunday may feature more clouds and possibly a shower, but that’s only a chance at this point. Enjoy this, because it may turn colder again after that.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be letting you know if I see any storms in our future. I will also have a sneak peek into the Thanksgiving holiday week forecast. Remember, my official winter forecast will be out just two weeks from today! In the meantime, no need to break out the shovels and snowblowers just yet..but I would keep them handy!

~Thanks for reading~

Pete

More signs of winter…11/4/13

Hello! So far, I would say it has been one of the most beautiful autumn’s ever! Not only has the weather been incredible, but the Red Sox won the World Series for the third time in ten years, and the Patriots finally have seemed to find their stride! With some injured players returning, I believe the Patriots are going to have a great second half of the season!

Along with the beautiful weather, Mother Nature did not disappoint with the fall foliage! Here in the Boston area, it has been a slow, long duration fall foliage season. Just when you thought it was over, a burst of brilliant color over this past weekend lit up the city like no other year. Overall, it was a warm October, which slowed the changing of the leaves, and dulled the color around the middle of the month. However, some frosty nights towards the end of the month really helped to bring out the vivid colors here in the city. This, and cojunction with dry, sunny weather, and very light winds, have made this one of the best atumn’s in recent memory. I hope you had the chance to get out and enjoy it!

So what’s next? Now that we are beyond Halloween, we start turning our attention to Thanksgiving, and the winter that follows. As I mentioned earlier, it has been a mild pleasant fall so far. However, make no mistake about it, winter is coming this year, and it may be a big one. One indicator I use to determine what type of a winter the Boston area is going to receive, is to see when Logan airport receives its first freeze of the season. This is when the temperature falls to 32 degrees for the first time in the fall. Studies have shown a direct correlation between when this occurs, and how much snow falls the following winter.

Years when this happens later than the average, (avg. is November 7th at Logan airport), we typically receice less snowfall. However, in years when the freeze falls close to the average, especially just before, or right on the date, heavy winter snowfall is more likely. As I said, although it has been a mild fall overall, sneaky cold air sifted into New England during Sunday. Last night was our coldest night of the season. Many suburban areas dropped into the teens and twenties. And yes, Logan airport did report its first freeze last night!

When we receive our first freeze is not the only sign I look for in helping me determine how harsh our winter will be. In fact, I look at 18 different signs! The average temperature of November at the end of the month may actually trump when the first freeze occurs. The closer this temperature is to average, the heavier the snowfall tends to be. Warm and dry November’s do not bring heavy winters to the Boston area.

Other signals I look out for is the number of frosts during November, ocean temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic, geese flying south, Siberian snow cover, and sun spot cycle to name a few. I will continue to monitor these signals as well as others as we move through November. My official winter forecast will be published on November 25th…so stay tuned!

As I mentioned earlier, October was on the warm side, but it was also unusually dry. In fact, it has been so dry for several months in a row, that NOAA has now declared eastern Massachusetts in a moderate drought zone. So in summation, October was a warm & dry month here in Boston. There was no thunder reported this October.

How is November shaping up? Temperatures average in the low 50’s for highs at the start of the month, however, they fall to the low 40’s by months end. November tends to be a wet month with about 4″ of precipitation. And by the way, this is not always liquid. With temperatures falling, some of this precip may fall as snow or ice. Logan airport tends to average about 1.5″ of snow in November. This can vary widely from year to year, with no snow falling during November in many years.  Locations just inland and to the north receive more snow because they are further away from the oceans warmining influence.

I am expecting a fairly tranquil first part of November this year. Temperatures will be oscillating between warm and cold periods. I am expecting a stormier second half of the month, with possibly even some snow, especially inland. In the end, I believe temperatures and precipitation will be about normal across the region. However, I am expecting winter to come in full force as we head into December.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect chilly weather for the rest of today, with sunny skies and highs in the 40’s. Tonight will be clear and cold, with lows mainly in the 20’s and 30’s. Tomorrow is Election Day, so get out and vote! Look for dry weather, and after a cold start, expect temperatures to warm up to near 50.

Watch for warmer weather to move in for Wednesday and Thursday. I wouldn’t go as far to call it Indian Summer, but expect highs to reach 60 on Wednesday, and be well into the 60’s on Thursday! Later Thursday, expect some showers to move in. These may continue during the night into early Friday morning. Later on Friday, look for windy and colder weather to come rushing back into New England, with temperatures dropping into the 40’s. It will be colder Friday night into Saturday, lows will be in the 20’s, and highs in the 40’s. It will be dry through this period. Right now it looks to be a bit milder on Sunday, with a chance of some rain showers, highs will be near 50. A washout is not anticipated.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a closer look at our winter forecast. I will also talk a bit more about our emergency preparedness when the next big storm comes. I will also discuss the importance of cold and snow in Canada in relation to our winter here in New England. In the meantime, keep an eye out for those squirrels and acorns, another sure sign of winter coming!

~Thanks for reading~

Pete

Dry October to continue…10/28/13

Sorry for the late start today folks. Not only am I feeling under the weather, but I am also attempting to write my blog on my smartphone. I’m sure we have all been there and done that at some point in our lives. One thing I have learned over the years is that no matter what, life doesn’t stop for too much, and Mother Nature certainly doesn’t stop for nothing!

So far, it has been a year of extremes. Starting warm and dry in January, the heavy snows in February & March, the flooding rains of June, and now the exceptional dry weather for the past few months. In fact, October is going to end up being one of the driest October’s on record. In addition despite the recent chill, it will also turn out being a warmer than normal month. With all that being said, many locations saw a killing frost end the growing season across the area. In fact, if you didn’t get a frost last week, you most likely will experience one tonight. Many areas inland have already had a frost a couple weeks ago. This is about average times for locations here in eastern Massachusetts.

With all these temperature fluctuations, one would think there has been alot of precipitation, but this hasn’t been the case. A great Boston meteorologist Mark Rosenthal, once said, “when in doubt, forecast drought”. Meaning, if it looks like the computer models are forecasting rain but it’s questionable, go with no rain. With all of this unusual dry weather of late, we are now categorized in an unusually dry weather pattern zone by the National Weather Service. By the way, you can still see Mark Rosenthal on his own website, Weatherblast.com.

With the frosts of recent nights, we may get one final burst of fall foliage color at the end of this week. This is about average when colors peek here in Boston. Further inland, especially north and west of Rt. 128 and I95, peek foliage has passed. I must say, of all the colors that come out in th fall, the red maples were spectacular this year. You can still view some beautiful foliage right into the first week in November right along the coast here in Massachusetts.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to mention that today is the one year anniversary of Superstorm Sandy. This was possibly a once and a hudred year storm which lashed the mid-atlantic region, especially New Jersey. This storm was a hurricane, which combined with bitter winter cold from the north to create a storm of biblical proportions. It brought 3ft of snow to West Virginia, hurricane force gusts to Cape Cod, and a full fledged destructive hurricane conditions to New Jersey and parts of N.Y. It may not have been the storm of the century for us here in New England, but for folks who live to our south, they still have not fully recovered from this destructive storm. So yes, it may be quiet this October, but that’s a relief for many folks in New Jersey.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect breezy conditions for the rest of your Monday. Temperatures will be near average mainly in the upper 50’s.  A dry cold front will move through the area eaqrly tonight. Two things will happen when this occurs. First, the winds will turn to the north. Second, a chunk of cold weather will be driven into New England on the heels of this north wind. Expect temperatures to plummet into the 20’s and low 30’s across the region.

In fact, Boston’s Logan airport may even be close to 32 degrees come tomorrow morning. It will continue to be dry, with mostly clear skies. Tuesday will feel more like Thanksgiving, with temperatures struggling to rise through the 40’s. It will continue to be dry, with some sun early, then more clouds during the afternoon. It will continue to be on the cold side Tuesday night, but not as cold as tonight. Expect dry weather, with lows mainly in the mid to upper 30’s in rural areas, and maybe some upper 20’s in the suburbs.

Wednesday will be mainly cloudy, and possibly a chance of some light showers or sprinkles, highs will reach the lower 50’s. Look for partly cloudy and cool weather for game 6 at Fenway Wednesday night, with lows mainly in the 40’s. Watch for milder conditions to start flowing into New England just in time for Halloween on Thursday. This time, on the heels of a south wind, temperatures should warm up well into the upper 50’s to near 60! There will be a cold front approaching from the west. Right now, it looks like the showers will hold off until after trick-or-treaters, but I can’t gaurantee that. Some damp weather may arrive by dinner time just as easy.

Watch November 1st to feature warm weather with a gusty south wind and tropical like downpours moving through the area during the morning. Highs will be well up into the 60’s! A cold front will whip through the region later Friday with maybe another shower. Right now, the weekend is looking dry and cooler, with highs near 60 on Saturday, cooling into the 50’s by Sunday.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will wrap up the weather we had for October, and preview the patterns for November. I will also be talking a bit more about our upcoming winter and what we may expect this year…so stay tuned for that! We will also have a new World Series Champion within a few days! Hopefully it will be the Red Sox! In the meantime, enjoy the dryer and pleasant weather as of late, Mother Nature tends to balance things off in the long run. And you know what season is next…

~Go Red Sox!!!~

Pete

Frost on the pumpkin…10/21/13

What a weekend here in New England! It has been a whirlwind of emotions as our beloved Red Sox are going to the World Series for the third time in ten years! This coming off finishing in last place just one year ago. Baseball is not my favorite sport, but how can you not admire this group of players! It just shows us what can be accomplished when you have the right group of people working together with the right atttitude! In addition, The Head Of The Charles Regatta competed here in Boston as near peak fall colors were in the background. To top it off, it was a beauty of a weekend, with mostly sunny skies, and temperatures in the 60’s. When it comes to fall weekends here in New England, it doesn’t get much better than this! 

So where do we go from here? How does the last third of October look in terms of the weather? As stated in last weeks blog, it has been a very warm October this year. In fact, Boston has been averaging close to 6 degrees above normal! Well, that’s about to change. It’s looking more certain that a major shift in the weather pattern starting this week, will send us scrambling for our warm jackets, hats, and heaters. Later in the week, you can expect high temperatures mainly in the 40’s, and lows in the 20’s and low 30’s. This type of cold will end the growing season for 90% of New England by the time we wake up on Sunday morning. I will have more about temperatures and chances of precipitation shortly in my forecast.

So, will this mean our stretch of unseasonably warm and tranquil weather is over? The short answer to this is, yes, I do believe so. I’m not saying that winter is starting from now. However, the last time I saw a pattern similar to this one was back in the fall of 1995. Weather patterns were similar that year as it is to this year. In fact, some expert long range meteorologists are using that year as an analog to current patterns. However, there were some differences. That year, much of New England was in a severe drought, with precipitation deficits of between 10 and 15 inches. This year, we are only in an unusually dry advisory, with deficits of only about 2 to 5 inches.

What followed in the winter of 95-96′ can only be described as epic. Starting in November through April, a barrage of 26 snowstorms pelted New England for a record snow year of well over a 100″ in almost every reporting station in southern New England! With that being said, that year, much like this year, had an unseasonably warm October. Then about this time, a major shift occurred, signifying a change.

This is one sign, along with seventeen others,  I look at when formulating my winter forecast. Sudden shifts such as this, could be a sign that winter wants to start early here in New England. Some other signs I look for in helping me determine what type of a winter is in store for us are: ocean temperatures, sun spot cycles, geese flying south, frosts in November, and temperature and precipitation trends in November, among other things.

The early call on winter for this year is for possibly a more severe winter than recent years, with snow beginning in November this year. I am expecting January to be especially fierce, with bitter cold and heavy snow. This is very preliminary, as my official forecast will not be released until November 25th. However, before that date, I am expecting that much of New England, especially inland will of already had their first snowstorm. Over the next few weeks, I will continue to monitor the weather patterns and update you on this potentially tough winter coming.

With all of the tranquil weather we have been experiencing the past several months, I am still expecting a major storm to hit sometime in November this year. This storm may, or may not have tropical origin with it. This year’s hurricane season looks like it has been a dud. To answer why this happened is very complicated. I have some theories, but am not qualified to fully understand the science behind this complicated topic. With all that being said, this has been a welcome relief to insurance companies and homeowners living along the east coast. Still, this does not mean we are totally out of the woods! We could be in a cycle where nor’easters are more common to occur. In fact, the water is still at record levels off of the east coast, especially New England. This could fuel a hybrid type of storm, much like Sandy of last year, mixing winter cold with tropical moisture, resulting in a storm which can cause considerable damage.

If a major storm would to hit here in New England, it’s important that we are prepared. I spent a couple of hours researching emergency preparedness. You would think it would be easy, just Google emergency preparedness, and you’re all set, right? Well, there are so many agencies out there, and different types of emergencies, you could easily get confused and frustrated. For instance, today starts Winter Weather Preparedness Week here in Massachusetts. This is important, because here in New England, many of our major storms happen in the winter, which may include heavy snow, ice, coastal flooding, high winds, and power outages. After sifting through many websites, I thought this one would be a good one to start off with. Just click on the link, and it should come up: http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/ . Next week I will look for one that relates more for us here in New England.

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Expect beautiful weather to be the rule for both today and tomorrow. Look for mainly sunny skies, light winds, and mild temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid 60’s. Look for mild weather tonight, with some patchy fog, and lows mainly in the 40’s and 50’s. A sharp cold front will approach New England late tomorrow night, bringing with it some scattered showers.

Watch for sharply colder weather for Wednesday, with gusty northeast winds, and a chance of showers. High temperatures will be falling through the 50’s into the 40’s at night. I believe the rain will end just before the start of game one at Fenway Park, just be sure to bring a winter jacket, gloves, and possibly even a hat! Temperatures will be falling through the 40’s.

For the period Thursday through Saturday, look for mainly dry weather, with highs mainly in the upper 40’s and low 50’s. Expect cold weather on Friday night with lows mainly in the 20’s and low 30’s region wide. This will end the growing season across much of eastern Massachusetts. Not sure just yet if it will fall to 32 degrees at Logan airport just yet. A fast system may bring more showers on Sunday, with highs mainly in the lower 50’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have one more foliage report, as well as your Halloween forecast. I will talk about the historic storm Sandy, that hit the mid-atlantic one year ago. I will also have another emegency preparedness link to help you prepare for a major storm when it hits. In the meantime, time to look for frost on the pumpkins, just another sign that winter is right around the corner!

~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Signs of winter? 10/14/13

Happy Columbus Day to all! Growing up, I remember this being about the time of year here in Boston when we typically see our first real chill of the season. By this, I mean widespread freeze and frosts throughout most of southern New England away from the urban centers. So far, October has behaved more like September, with themperatures running a good 6 degrees warmer than the average here in Boston. However, looking at some of the longer range guidance this morning, it appears as if our long awaited chill is only temporarily delayed, not denied. In fact, by this time next week, we may all be scrambling to fire up the furnaces and wood stoves, as the first taste of winter cold may be ready to blast into New England!

Because of the continued milder than normal weather, the fall foliage seems to have slowed its pace a bit here in eastern Massachusetts. However, this is not the case once one heads to the north. This past weekend, my sister, brother in-law and myself headed to the White Mountains of New Hampshire for a fall foliage camping expedition! To say the views were breathtaking would be an understatement. It was very interesting to see the changes in the foliage as we headed north into the mountains. Up here, especially in the mountainous regions, foliage was all done! Trips up to to the top of Mt. Washinton and Cannon mountain showed no foliage left, as all the trees were ready for winter!

As we headed south a bit, especially along the Kancamagus Highway region, south to about Concord, N.H. and east to about Portland, Me. this is where you will find peak fall foliage colors. In most cases, the leaves were about as brilliant as could be, with bright yellows, oranges, and reds. Even the leather brown colors and lime green mixed in brought the majestic beauty of fall in New England! All in all, I would rate the colors a 7 out of 10 this year. Very good, but not as many firey red colors as we would of liked. It’s possible the reds came out very early this year, and we just missed it.

With all this being said, I do realize there is plenty of beautiful color even in and around the Boston area as well. However, with all of the mild weather we have been experiencing, the peak wave of color is still a couple of weeks away from sweeping through Boston. After the cold air arrives next week, expect the leaves to rapidly turn color as we head towards Halloween.

So, we know it’s been warm here in New England, what about the rest of the country? So far, for this October, it has been cold in the west, and warm in the east. In fact, it has been so cold out west, that some ski areas are already opening up for the season! In addition, an early season blizzard brought nearly 4 ft of snow to some parts of the Dakota’s last week! Looking at the latest guidance, it looks like the NAO a.k.a. the Greenland Block may be developing for the last 10 days of October.

This is important, as it will signify a change to a more wintery pattern for us here in New England. It may not snow here in southern New England, however, it’s not out of question that some mountains of northern New England may experience their first snowfall in a pattern like this. Here in southern New England, we can expect a wetter, colder pattern to finish up the month, along with a couple nights of below 32 degrees. At the very least, the growing season will be ending.

How about the prospects of another superstorm such as Sandy hitting again this year. At this point, I am glad to say that this does not to be in the cards. A storm like that may be exactly what the experts say, a once in a hundred year storm. I am sure there are many people who are glad to hear this! However (lots of however’s today), we may not be totally out of the woods for us here in New England. I say this because Sandy was more of a mid-atlantic storm, from New York City to New Jersey, than it was for us here in New England. This leaves the door open for New England to be hit with a major storm. With the past several months being so placid here in New England, I do believe the possibility exists for a major early winter storm to hit us sometime in November this year. I will keep you updated with this possibility as we move deeper into the season.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Look for beautiful weather for the rest of your Columbus Day holiday. It will feature plenty of sun here in eastern Ma. with highs near 60 along the coast, to 65 inland. There will be some increasing clouds from the west towards sunset. Tonight will be mainly cloudy and on the mild side, with lows mainly in the 40’s and low 50’s.

Tuesday will feature a mixture of clouds and some sun, it will be a bit milder with highs mainly in the mid 60’s. There may be some showers moving through the region later Tuesday night into a part of Wednesday morning, otherwise expect a mostly dry day with highs in the mid to upper 60’s. A cold front will be moving across southern New England Wednesday night bringing a band of showers through, it will still be on the mild side, with lows in the 40’s and low 50’s.

Look for any showers to be ending first thing on Thursday, with some sun returning, expect another mild day, with highs in the upper 60’s to possibly close to 70! Another sysytem may graze us late Thursday night into Friday morning with a few showers, otherwise expect generally fair and dry weather for both Friday and Saturday, with a bit cooler temperatures, with highs in the lower 60’s.

Right now, there may be a bit of a stronger sysytem moving in for Sunday with some widespread rain and cooler temperatures. Highs may be only in the upper 50’s. After that, even colder weather may follow next week.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have another fall foliage report. I will also be looking at the latest weather maps on the possibility of the early season storm. Along with that, I will be providing some information about emergency planning, in case a major storm does strike New England. In the meantime, this week may be a good time to make sure that the furnace is in good working condition, as well as dig out the dormant winter clothing, as we prepare for another long New England winter!

~Thanks for reading~

Pete