Exciting times in New England! 10/7/13

Good morning! Where is the time going? Come next week, we will already be at the mid-point of meteorological fall! Remember in meteorology timetable, autumn consists of the three months of September, October and November. So far, despite the damp weather yesterday, I think many would agree this has been one extravagant fall! Since Labor Day, I believe the showers of yesterday was perhaps only the second time it has rained. In just a bit, I will tell you how weather like this has turned this into an extraordinary autumn!

With weather like this, we now know why many people feel that this is the best time of the year here in New England! Not only do we have vivid fall foliage to look at, but we also have the Red Sox in the playoffs, the Bruins starting up, and the Patriots turning our hair grey on Sunday afternoons! Not to mention all the other fall activities such as apple picking, fall festivals, searching for the perfect pumpkin, and visiting a haunted house that makes living in New England during the fall so exciting!          

Aside from all of those fun activities, the #1 attraction here in New England this time of year are the trees! People come from all over the world to witness Mother Nature’s spectacle. Our prime geograpghic location and unique climate is the perfect environment for hundreds of different species of trees to thrive here. In addition, our topograghy of rolling hills leading down to a rugged coastline adds to the character which makes our region special.

So how are we doing this year for color? Well this year is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory! From the reports I am hearing up north, and my observations right here in my own neighborhood, it appears as if the foliage is running about two weeks ahead of schedule this year!  Not only that, but the color looks extra vivid this year. Trees that normally don’t turn color until the last week of October are fully changed in brilliant reds, orange and yellows. Up north, where Columbus Day weekend is normally peak viewing, it may already be past peak a week from today!  This means peak will not be too far from Boston come next weekend. In fact, I believe you only need to take a short drive just outside of the city in any direction to run into peak colors! Shortly after that, I am now forecasting peak colors to arrive here in Boston well before Halloween this year.

When I was a kid, I remember falls like this. I do remember peak colors being very close to Boston around Columbus Day. However, in recent years, the trees didn’t seem to want to change as quickly. In fact, peak colors havn’t been arriving in Boston until the first week of November! I believe like the weather, fall foliage goes in cycles, with some years later than others. There’s no doubt fall color change is a delicate process that only Mother Nature has the answers to.

This year, I believe we have had the perfect conditions to not only bring out the best colors, but also accelerate them quicker than normal. To bring out the best colors, there must be a delicate balance of precipitation, temperature, and sunlight. As the days shorten in the fall, light energy called photosynthesis begins to diminish. When light energy diminishes, green chlorophyll pigments begin to shut down, bringing out the colors of the leaf.

Other factors such as too much rain or too little can also affect the brightness of the colors. If the weather is too warm, sugars will keep feeding the plants, prolonging the green chlorophyll process. If the temperature drops too quickly, the leaves may freeze, and just drop off. That’s why mild sunny days, and cool clear nights are best for bringing out the beautiful colors. This year, we have had just the right amount of rain, and many clear, cool nights in September. This has led to ideal conditions for the leaves to turn and make this a year to remember!

While at several family get togethers this weekend, many family members asked me about what kind of a winter we are going to have this year. Yes, it’s that time of the year! You may hear other forecasts coming out in September and October. I don’t release my official forecast until November 25th. Some may say this is a cop out being so close to winter. That may be true, but to really attempt to forecast the upcoming winter, you have to gather as much climate and natural surrounding data as I can possibly give the most accurate forecast that I can. Over the next several weeks, I will be talking alot more about our upcoming winter, as well as dropping alot of hints as to what I am thinking…so stay tuned!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect a tropical feel today, with some breaks of sun along with fast moving clouds, highs will mainly be in the 70’s. Watch for a band of rain to move through tonight, some areas may receive some downpours at times, lows will be in the 50’s. Expect rapid clearing, cooler and drier weather for Tuesday. With a brisk wind, look for highs mainly to be in the 60’s.

Watch for similar weather for Wednesday through Friday, with mainly sunny skies, and highs mostly in the 60’s, and lows in the 40’s. There are some question marks for the upcoming Columbus Day weekend. There will be a coastal storm to our south. I don’t expect a washout, but much like this past weekend, there may be some showers from time to time, with highs mainly in the 60’s. I took the more pessimistic outlook for now, it may turn out alot better than what I am forecasting. If there are any major changes, I will update the forecast. Enjoy the colors!

Well that’s about it for now! In next’s week blog, I will have the latest on our fall foilage. I will also talk in greater detail about last year’s Superstorm Sandy, and if a storm like that could ever strike New England. I will also provide  information to folks about emergency preperation in case we ever did get a storm like that. I may also begin to talk about some of my ideas for the upcoming winter. In the meantime, wherever your travels may bring you, enjoy this time of year. You may not be as excited as to what follows!

Happy Columbus Day!

Pete

Summer encore! 9/30/13

Ever go to a great concert and you don’t want it to end? I think we have all been there at one point or another in our lives, where the music was so good, bringing back fond memories in our lives, that we just don’t want it to end. My moment was when I went to see Bruce Springsteen a couple years ago, talking about encore performances. The guy was like the energizer bunny, his whole last half of his show was an encore performance! Well, I’m not sure if you had such fond memories of summer 2013, but if you didn’t, you may just get another chance! After a chilly stretch of weather to finish September, summer is coming back in a big way this week, and now we’re talking October! This, I’m sure, will be music to many peoples ears!

This type of warmth in October is nothing new. In fact, the past several October’s have actually run warmer than normal. Looking over the latest long range computer models, it’s looking as if at least the first two weeks of October will run warmer than normal. I will let you know just how warm it’s going to get in my forecast shortly.

With the summerlike warmth coming, one would think that this is Indian Summer for sure. Well, it all depends how you define Indian Summer. If you think it’s a warm period of weather after summer ends, then yes, you can call it Indian Summer if you wish. However, according to the Native American definition of it, Indian Summer is a period of warm, sunny weather, only after we have received a first frost. So technically, it won’t be Indian Summer anywhere inside Rt. 128, and I95. However, that’s not the case in other parts of New England. In fact, there were several chilly nights up north and in the deep interior where frost did occur during September. This is fairly typical for this time of the year.

Before we move on to the future, let’s look back at how September turned out. According to my records, it was a splendid month of weather for all of New England, indeed! Despite the downpours over the Labor Day weekend, September acually will end up with below normal amounts of precipitation. Temperatures were all over the place, for September standards. We had several chilly nights, with many lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Offsetting that, we also had many warm days, punctuated by a near record high of 97 degrees on 9/11. Average all this out, and it turned out to be a dryer, slightly cooler month.

Tomorrow, we begin a new month. October is a true autumn month here in New England, as winter begins to advance south. We continue our slow decent into winter with temperatures falling from the upper 60’s at the start of the month, to the upper 50’s by months end. It also gets colder at night, with lows starting in the upper 40’s, and finishing in the upper 30’s by Halloween. Many locations in southern New England also receive their killing frosts this month. And by the way, we do have to introduce the chance of snow in October. More of the exception and not the rule, but it can happen. Many times, when we see snow in October, a mild winter follows. So if you are a snow lover, snow in October doesn’t always mean a tough winter is on the way! I am not expecting much snow this October.

In fact, looking at the latest long range computer models, at least the first couple of weeks of October look to be on the warmer side. Thereafter, a transition to more seasonable weather is anticipated. There are no clear signals for precipitation. If any tropical disturbances were to develop, there is a chance that some tropical moisture could surge into New England, resulting in higher than normal amounts of precipitation.

With the recent cool nights, and bright sunny days, fall foliage has been coming on strong up north. Even down here in the Boston area, I have seen quite a few trees with some brilliant color. This is a bit unusaul here in Boston for late September. I have to attribute the early color to the perfect weather conditions during September. The trees seem healthy, and the cool nights help bring out the best colors. Reports coming in from up north is spectacular color. I am a bit concerned with the forecast for warm temperatures the next couple of weeks. Sometimes, this dulls the colors, as sugars can still supply the trees with nutrients. Of course, only Mother Nature has the final call with this.

Watch the color wave to steadily move from north to south during October. If this trend continues, you can expect the Columbus Day weekend timeframe for peak colors anywhere north and west of I495. You may also see some good color areas to the southwest of Boston, into northern Rhode Island. If you can’t take a ride, peak colors will visit your backyard here in Boston, during the last week of October, leading up to Halloween. 

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. With the warm weather anticipated, I will give this week a 8 out of 10. Look for a beautiful day for the rest of your Monday, with sun mixing with some clouds. It may turn a bit breezy along the coast. Watch for temperatures to be a little warmer than yesterday, with highs mainly in the upper 60’s. Tonight will feature clear and cool conditions, with lows mainly in the 40’s in rural areas, to the 50’s in the cities. As high pressure shifts south of us tomorrow, look for a warmer day, with mostly sunny skies, temperatures should rise into the mid 70’s. Tuesday night should be fair and milder, with lows mainly in the upper 40’s and upper 50’s.

Watch for summerlike weather to flood into New England on Wednesday and Thursday. Look for mostly sunny skies with a warm southwest wind, highs will surge into the middle 80’s! A seabreeze may make it slightly cooler on Thursday, but who’s counting?

From the period Friday through Sunday, expect warmer than normal temperatures to continue. However, with more clouds around, and a small chance of a few showers from time to time, temperatures will mainly be a little cooler, with highs mainly in the 70’s. Not bad for the first week of October! A strong cold front may produce some genuine rain later on Sunday, finally bringing temperatures to more seasonable levels to start next week.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about the chances of having another superstorm like last October, this time for New England? I will also have your fall foliage update, and your all important Columbus Day weekend forecast! In the meantime, enjoy summer’s encore performance, you never know when the curtain will be closed for good!  

~Thanks for reading~

Pete

Farewell, summer! 9/23/19

Welcome to autumn! At exactly 4:44 yesterday afternoon, the autumnal equinox arrived. And right on cue, a brisk north wind ushered in a chilly airmass into New England last evening. It’s amazing how Mother Nature can be so precise at times. Actually, she’s precise at all times, even when we think things are out of order, she has a plan for everything. There is nothing hap-hazard or chaotic about earth’s system or nature. Everything is precise and has a reason for it! 

I have said this before, but it’s worth repeating again. We are not in charge here. Whether it’s battling over global warming, climate change, rising sea levels, or melting glaciers, it’s Mother Nature that is in control. Are all of these things happening? Well…yes! These are all natural processes of nature and earth. To find the answer to these questions, one only needs to look back in the past. We know the earth has warmed, and has cooled in the past. We also know that these patterns repeat itself in cyclical patterns. Short term pattern shifts of 20 to 30 years are related to warming and cooling of our oceans. Other factors are volcano activity, wabbling of the earth’s axis,  and sun spot cycles. We can also get an idea of what the climate was like in the past by reading journals that people wrote.

Long term major shifts are a bit more difficult to understand. For example, it’s difficult for some people to understand that New England was covered by a massive ice sheet some 10,000 years ago. In geologic time, 10,000 years ago is like a few seconds! Many climatologists and geologists believe we are still coming out of that ice age, and that the earth is still slowly warming.

Scientists can see what the climate was like thousands of years ago by studying ice core and tree ring samples.What is astonishing in some of these studies, is just how quickly the earth’s climate can shift from warm to cold. Over the years, there is evidence that within decades, not centuries, climate shifts can send humans panicking that another ice age is coming, or that we will burn up from excessive heat. Since the sun is the main force in controlling our climate, I believe we need to try to study and research it more in the future. Believe me, if something ever happened to the sun, earth as we know it, would cease to exist.

Speaking of the sun, now that fall is here, we will be seeing less and less of it in the coming weeks. In fact, we are now on a rapid downward trend of losing 2 minutes of sunlight a day, until the winter solstice. This is not because the sun is losing strength, it’s because the earth is tilting away from the sun on our axis.

As we lose solar radiation you can expect a few things to occur over the next several weeks. With the longer nights, we can expect cooler to colder conditions to greet you in the morning. As we move deeper into October, frost will put an end to the growing season across the region. Killing frosts vary widely across New England. Across the north and deep interior, many areas have already experienced a killing frost. Here in southern New England, Boston’s suburbs can expect their first frost during the first week of October. However, if you live within 2 miles of the ocean, including Logan airport,  this can be delayed for up to a month later some years. Because the oceans cool off slower than the land, cold and snow is often delayed reaching coastal areas until after Thanksgiving many years.

One of New England’s spectacles this time of year is our fall foliage. Because of where we are located between the North Pole and the Equator, we have many different species of trees from around the world here! As we lose sunlight, the photosynthesis that makes the green color of the leaves diminishes, bringing out the beautiful fall colors. Weather also plays a significant role in how bright the colrs will be. So far, this year is shaping up to be a great year for fall foliage viewing. The trees appear to be healthy, with bright splashes of color already showing up!

What’s needed is a good amount of rainfall during the spring and summer, but not too much or a fungus may develop. We also need sunny days with mild temperatures, and cool but not cold nights. It’s a fine balance. If it’s too warm, sugars that feed the trees won’t allow them to change quick enough. A sharp freeze at night may cause premature leaf drop.

Over the coming weeks, watch the color wave move from north to south across New England! Peak colors will be arriving next weekend way up north by the Canadian border. As we move into October, the color wave will be spreading south across New England. As a rule of thumb, Columbus Day weekend is a great weekend for foliage trips, especially across central New Hampshire and the Berkshires of Massachusetts. In the hilly terrain and interior of New England, peak colors tend to come through quickly. If you live in eastern New England, fall can be a glorious time of the year. Because of the warm ocean, the leaves change more slowly, sometimes extending well into November. If you live inside of Rt. 128, including Boston, peak foliage arrives the last week of October, especially around Halloween.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity autumn forecast. I will give this week a 10 out of 10. Yes, you read right, a 10 out of 10! It doesn’t get much better than this, for this time of the year! For the rest of today through Wednesday, you can expect mostly sunny weather, with temperatures mainly in the 60’s. Watch for clear and chilly nights, with patchy frost in the suburbs, lows will be in the 30’s in rural areas, and 40’s in the cities. From the period of Thursday through Sunday, expect more sunshine, and a slow warming trend!  Look for highs in the low to mid 70’s throughout the period, and lows mainly in the 40’s and 50’s. I don’t believe we will see anymore rain for the rest of the month!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will look at what kind of weather we may expect for October, and review how September turned out. I will also take a peek into November and let you know when we usually see our first snows across New England. Each week in October, I will also have a fall foliage report. I will have a tropical update only if  there’s any activity. In the meantime, time to say farewell to astronomical summer, and hello to Indian Summer? More on that next week too!

Pete

Brief September chill…9/16/13

Hello to all! After a throwback into the frying pan last Wednesday, the weather this past weekend featured a return to more seasonable temperatures. I knew it was going to get hot, but the computer models grossly underestimated the blast of heat that poured into New England last week. The intensity of the heat not only surprised me, but also many local professional meteorologists. It wasn’t until Tuesday evening, when the National Weather Service out of Taunton, Ma. issued a high heat advisory for eastern Massachusetts, that I began to think it may get alot hotter than forecasted. And in fact, temperatures soared to the upper 90’s, falling just 2 degrees short of the record high temperature in Boston for that date.

It’s not like it came out of no where. The midwest had been suffering with this intense heat wave since the end of August. The block that had been protecting New England for weeks, finally broke down, allowing the heat to pour into New England. We should be thankful it happened in September. If this block were to break down in August, this type of heat could of stuck around for a few days at least. I find this to be the beauty of the climate here in New England. Yes, our winters tend to be snowy and cold, but no particular pattern tends to linger for long periods of time. With that being said, our weather is known for rapid changes and extreme patterns.

Typically, the weather in September is not known for extremes here in New England. However, this September has had its share of wild weather. It started out on Labor Day weekend with a  flash flood event just to the west and southwest of Boston. And just when you thought summer was over, temperatures soared to the upper 90’s last week. Now, many interior locations will be dealing with cold temperatures tonight, with frost possible! One thing I would like to be clear about, is that frost is not uncommon in September, here in New England. I also want to make clear that this chance of frost does not include any of the urban corridors from Providence, Boston, and up along the New Hampshire and Maine coast. However, if you live inland, away from the ocean and urban centers, temperatures may get down into the low 30’s tonight, prompting frost and freeze warnings in these locations.

Although we don’t typically experience severe weather in September, this does not mean we don’t get it occassionally. After all, September is the peak of hurricane season. And in fact, one of our most severe storms ever to strike New England, was the 1938 hurricane, that hit on September 21st. This was a deadly storm, killing well over 600 people,  a 20 ft sorm surge, and wind gusts up to 185 m.ph., resulting in massive tree damage across New England. It’s not like the National Weather Service didn’t see the storm, they knew it was there. The problem was the speed at which the storm was moving. This storm was actually nicknamed the Long Island Express, since the sorm passed through Long Island at an extremely fast forward rate of speed.  This forward motion, along with the eye passing to the west of eastern Massachusetts, brought a deadly combination of high winds and a storm surge of ocean, that flooded Providence, R.I., drowning more than 600 people. To this day, this has been the most severe storm to strike New England in modern times.

Any hurricanes in our future? I am happy to report today that we don’t have any hurricanes threatening New England at least for this upcoming week. With that being said, the hurricane season has perked up a bit. Since last week, we have had two named hurricanes develop in the Atlantic. None of which has threatened the U.S. mainland. Many hurricane experts are frankly quite baffled at the lack of hurricanes this summer. Of course this is welcome news for insurance companies, and people who live along the coast.

As I have said in previous posts, we are not out of the woods just yet. We are only now in the middle of the peak of hurricane season. Severe storms and hurricanes can also form in late September and even October. Again, I would like to bring up the example of Sandy just last year, that didn’t form until the end of October! It does appear as if the the atmosphere may be in a delayed mode of 2 to 4 weeks. So the worst may be yet to come! I still believe a tropical type of system is going to affect New England this fall. I will keep you updated with any threat of a storm this fall.

Now  for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week another 7 out of 10. Look for mostly cloudy weather for the rest of your Monday. There may be some sunny breaks later in the day, but there also may be a few more showers later this afternoon as well. It will be on the cool side, with highs in the mid 60’s. Watch for clearing skies and a brisk north wind moving in tonight. With the clear skies and light winds later, expect temperatures to plummet into the 30’s and 40’s regionwide. If you live inland, especially in central and western Mass., New Hampshire and Maine, the growing season may be in jeopardy tonight, with a killing frost. It will only be chilly in urban areas, with no frost.

Tuesday will feature bright sunshine along with October like temperatures, highs will only be in the 60’s. It will not be as cold Tuesday night, with some clouds around, and temperatures falling back to the upper 30’s and 40’s, near 50 in urban areas. Look for milder weather to return from Wednesday through Friday, with a mixture of some clouds and sun, highs will mainly be in the upper 60’s on Wednesday, to lower to mid 70’s on Thursday and Friday. Lows will mainly be in the 40’s and 50’s at night. Watch for the full “Harvest Moon” late Wednesday evening lighting up the countryside.

A warm front will be approaching New England Friday night, this may bring the chance of a few showers. Right now, Saturday looks a bit warmer, with some sun, however clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon, highs will be in the upper 70’s.  Our next chance of rain will come Saturday night with a chance of showers. There may be lingering showers on Sunday morning, otherwise expect the sun to return during the afternoon for your first day of autumn! Temperatures look to be seasonable with highs in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s. 

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will have my revised fall timetable forecast, with timing of the fall foliage, first frosts, and first snows of the season! I will also have a new tropical update. In the meantime, come tomorrow morning, you will be reminded that summer 2013 is fading fast, and fall is knocking on the door!

Pete

A Patriotic forecast…9/9/13

Good morning! After a shaky start to September, the weather as of late has been why many people say that this is the best time of year. And who’s going to argue? With deep blue skies, cool crisp nights, and warm afternoons, September is a month that brings some of the best weather of the year!

As we move deeper into fall, New England traditions such as apple picking, fall foliage trips, and shopping for the perfect pumpkin will be the rule around these parts until Thanksgiving.  After that, we prepare ourselves for a long New England winter!

Before all that, I would like to reflect back, and see how my summer forecast turned out for the region. It certainly was a strange summer in the weather department. Overall, I think the forecast turned out fairly well. We typically measure our summers on how many 90 degree days we had. Boston averages about 14 ninety degree days. I predicted a hotter than normal summer, with between 15 and 20 ninety degree days. So far, Boston has had 17 days where temperatures were 90 or higher. I say so far, because there is a shot that we still may get one more 90 degree day this September! So that turned out very well! How about humidity? Along with the high temperatures, it was forecasted to be a very muggy summer, which also turned out well.

What didn’t turn out so well was the precipitation forecast. June turned out to be a very wet month this year. Many locations in New England received triple amounts of rain from what they normally do. This means many communities got between 9 and 12 inches of rain! This was followed by a very hot July, peaking with a 7 day heat wave in Boston! August turned into a very pleasant month, with near normal temperatures, and very little rain. Unfortunatey, the summer began as it started, with flooding rains over the Labor Day weekend.

Now that we’re in September, our attention now turns to hurricanes. So far, it has been a very inactive season in the Atlantic. Statistically, September 10th is the peak for hurricane development in the Atlantic. Looking at the latest satellite imagery, there are some tropical disturbances out there, but nothing to be concerned about at this point. There is a cluster of storms near the Caribbean, and something coming off the African coast. The one coming off the African coast may become our first hurricane, but this storm will most likely recurve harmlessly out to sea. For people taking cruises, and vacationing in the Caribbean Islands, this is great news! It’s also great news for anyone living along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts from Florida straight up through New England and Canada.

Yesterday at a family event, I had some relatives ask me why there hasn’t been any hurricanes this year. This is a much more complicated question than what it looks. The simple answer to this question is to say just that, that it’s complicated. However, always up for a challenge, I did my best, with the knowledge that I have to answer the question. To answer the question, you have to have some knowledge on how hurricanes form. Hurricanes derive their energy from the ocean, specifically oceans where temperatures are at water temperatures of 80 degrees or higher. So far, ocean temperatures seem to have been more than warm enough for hurricanes. However, that’s only part of the answer. There are other factors such as upper level jet streams, and something called wind shear. If there is too much winds at upper levels, it will shear the tops of the thunderstorms apart, prohibiting development. Another factor has been the excessive Saharan dust that has been blowing off Africa into the upper atmoshpere, again prohibiting development. Ocean temperatures from other parts of the world has also played a role in the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic. One more factor, which I mentioned last week, has been the colder than normal weather in the North Pole this summer. This too may be playing a role in hurricanes developing.

So does this mean no hurricanes this year? I know it’s getting late, but I still don’t think that’s the case. Despite the slow start, I still believe the east coast, including New England may be impacted by a tropical storm or a even a hurricane a bit later in the season. Remember, last year, Sandy did not form until late in October, so we are still early in the season. Looking over the latest discussions from expert meteorologists out there, they are still expecting a rapid increase in hurricane activity at some point this month. I will monitor this potential, and keep you up to date if any of these storms are a threat to New England!

Getting back to the present, I am expecting fairly stable weather patterns to continue here in New England for the next couple of weeks. We will have some significant temperature swings, but that is to be expected this time of year. Some colder locations in the deep interior of New England have already experienced some light touches of frost. Aside from that, I am expecting a September which will feature many days of very pleasant weather. This type of weather will be perfect for a very colorful fall this year. I believe we have had enough rain over the summer to keep the trees healthy. This along with sunny days and cool nights so far this September, will bring out the best colors. As we move closer to the start of autumn, I will begin my fall foliage reports.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 7 out of 10. Look for sun along with some high clouds  for the rest of your Monday, with highs near 70. Tonight will be a pleasant night, with mainly clear skies, It will not be as cold as last night, with lows mainly in the 40’s and 50’s. As a warm front approaches, Tuesday will feature more clouds than today, it will be a bit warmer, with highs near 80. There may be some light showers here and there later in the day, but I am not expecting any washouts. Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy and milder, with lows mainly in the 50’s to near 60.

As winds freshen from the southwest on Wednesday, expect a much warmer, summery day, with highs in the upper 80’s! This may be the last beach day of the year?? Watch for a couple scattered showers around the region Wednesday night, but many areas should remain dry. Wednesday is Patriot Day, please remember in your thoughts the tragic events of September 11th, 2001.

Look for another warm day on tap for Thursday, but with a strong cold front pressing into the area, there is a chance of some showers and thunderstorms across the area. It will still be warm with highs near 80. I expect these showers to possibly linger into the start of the Patriots game, so be prepared for that if you are going -Go Pats!!  It will be mild, with lows mainly in the 60’s to start off, falling to the 50’s later on in the night.

Any lingering showers should end  Friday morning, with clearing skies to follow, highs should mainly be in the lower 70’s. Right now, the weekend looks to be very fall like, with sunny skies and temperatures in the 60’s during the day, and 30’s and 40’s at night…brrr!!!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new tropical update. I will also have your fall timetable. I will let you know when we typically see our first frost across the region, and when you can expect the leaves to change in your back yard! In the meantime, as we enjoy the summery weather on Wednesday, also remember the people who fought for our freedom so that we can enjoy that day!

Pete

Labor Day washout! 9/2/13

Happy Labor Day to all! Unfortunately, a sudden shift in the weather patterns fowled up the forecast posted from last week. Originally, the computer models were showing a fairly decent weekend, especially here in eastern Ma. and especially the Cape. What actually happened was a unexpected flash flood warning for much of Boston and areas just to the southwest. I knew there was a problem with the forecast when I was running some errands around Boston, and already some showers were pelting me! This proved to be the focus point of the torrential downpours of yesterday. Clearly the computer models had great difficulty in determining the axis of heavy rainfall.

When we talk about Labor Day weekend, a few things come to mind. First, for many students, it’s back to school time this week! Second, if you are a fan, football begins in earnest for all levels of competition! And finally, with September starting, our attention turns to the changing of the seasons. Starting yesterday, we have transitioned out of meteorological summer into fall. However, astronomical fall does not officially arrive until the 21st of September. With that being said, you can expect a rapid decrease in sunlight over the next few weeks. In addition, we can expect cooler temperatures, and the colors of the trees to start showing up.

Does this mean summer is over? Well, looking over the latest long range guidance, this may be a bit more tricky than it looks. Many years, summer weather can extend well into September. With our ocean temperatures so warm, it takes chilly air masses originating in Canada longer to reach us here along the coast. At first glance, some computer models want to rush fall like air into New England. However, I believe these air masses will modify once to the coast. As we move deeper into the season, this pattern is certainly something to monitor.

Right now, I will be on the conservative side, and forecast a seasonable September on the way. This means average high temperatures starting in the upper 70’s at the beginning of the month, and ending in the upper 60’s by months end. I am still expecting a tropical system to possibly affect New England, so we may end up with above normal rainfall.

Speaking of the tropics, activity continues to be abnormally quiet in the Atlantic this year. I still am expecting a dramatic increase in named storms and hurricanes as we move deeper into September. It is interesting to note, that the ice sheet in the arctic has had minimal melting this summer. In fact, it actually has been one of the coldest summers in years up there. This cold weather may actually have pushed the westerlies further south than normal, increasing wind shear. This, along with a unusual amount of Saharan dust, may have been inhibiting storm development. Over the next several weeks, we shall see if the atmosphere can overcome these factors, and begin to generate storms. As always, I will keep you posted with the latest developments.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. For the rest of this afternoon, expect some rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region. It will be warm and muggy with highs mainly in the 70’s. These showers may disrupt any evening plans for cookouts. Later on, this activity will diminish, and we’ll be left with a cloudy, muggy night overnight.

Tuesday may be another unsettled day. It may start off with mixture of clouds and then. However, we have another front moving through the region during the afternoon. This may be the focus of some heavy showers and thunderstorms erupting across the region. Be prepared for some vivid lightning, gusty winds, and torrential rains.

After this activity moves out, the weather is going to improve rapidly from Wednesday through next Sunday. Expect cooler, drier and sunnier weather to be the rule through this period. In fact, come Saturday morning, there may definitely be a touch of fall in the air, with lows mainly in the 40’s! The only chance of rain may be some brief light showers passing through on Sunday. But we all know how things can change from this far out!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a more in depth look at the hurricane outlook. I will also have a review of how my summer forecast turned out. In the meantime, don’t pack away the summer clothes just yet, but at the same time, start pulling out the fall stuff just to be safe!

Pete

On the edge…8/26/13

When it comes to New England weather, it doesn’t get much better than this past weekend. With deep blue skies, low humidity, and unlimited sunshine, it was chamber of commerce weather at its best. The only complaint I heard from some was the chill to the air felt during the nights. In fact, one could say that it felt more like September rather than August! With that being said, I have been fascinated with sudden shifts in the pattern this summer. After flooding rains of June, searing heat in July, the weather in August has been just about perfect from mountain top to seashore. The weather coming up for this week looks to be a bit more unsettled, but the payoff for that may be another great weekend on the way! I will talk about this in more detail in my forecast shortly.

While we have been enjoying pleasant weather here in New England, the same can’t be said for other parts of the country. From raging wildfires in California, to record breaking heat in the middle of the country, the weather has been anything but pleasant. With all the extremes across the country I’m beginning to wonder just how long we can hold onto this benign pattern. As typical, New England beats to its own drum.

Over the next week, you can expect our region to be riding on the edge of the torrid heat wave just to our southwest. While the heat builds well up even into central Canada, surges of cooler drier weather will sweep south through New England, protecting us from the brutal heat for at least another week. This will put us right on the dividing line of hot and cool weather, resulting in a few episodes of inclement weather from time to time the next few days.

How about next week? Does the jet stream lift allowing the heat to flow into New England? Yes and no. First things first. Yes, the jet stream will looks as if it will briefly lift north of New England around a week from today. This will allow a brief surge of hot weather to stream into New England. We may briefly surge into the lower 90’s come about Labor Day. However, looking at the latest guidance this morning, it appears as if this will be short lived. Remember, come next week, we will be starting September. This does not mean we can’t have significant heat waves, especially the first half of September. Technically, it’s still summer. But it is September, and with it comes shorter days, and lower sun angles. For this reason, I believe whatever hot weather that does occur, will be brief. It looks like another batch of cooler and drier air will push down from Canada, replacing whatever hot weather comes. This is still a week away, so things may still change.

With the cooler weather of late, folks have been asking me if this diminishes the threat of a hurricane, or tropical system affecting New England. The short answer to this question is no. We are only now entering the peek season for hurricane development. Yes, it has gotten off to a slow start. However, there are signs that show a rapid increase in named hurricanes in the Atlantic over the next month. Some years,  you get seasons that start early, with many storms traversing the Atlantic, and you say to yourself, there’s no way one of these storms don’t hit us…and nothing. Then there are seasons like this, where there aren’t many storms, and the weather in New England seems more like it’s getting ready for fall…then wham! A storm comes out of no where! This is where we have to be on guard! I still believe we are at high risk of getting a land falling hurricane here in New England this fall! All it takes is a slight shift in the pattern at the right time to allow a storm to curve up the coast. The ocean temperatures are still running well above normal to support a storm. So stay tuned!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to talk about a annual publication that came out yesterday. The Old Farmers’ Almanac came out with their annual prediction for the upcoming winter for the country. I have not read the forecast yet, but I did hear from several sources that New England may be in for quite a winter this year. They are forecasting bitter cold temperatures and heavy snowfalls. Once thought as being foolish to follow, the Farmers’ Almanac has gained some respect from scientists and meteorologists for their long range predictions over the years. Their formula involves following the science of following sun spot cycles, and ocean temperatures. This area of meteorology is only now being studied seriously, having a significant link to our climate and weather patterns.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily for the nice weather expected for Labor Day weekend. Look for some sun to break out this afternoon across the area. It will be a bit more humid than over the weekend, with highs near 80. There may be some showers overnight, but I do expect any evenings activities to be dry, lows will be mainly in the 60’s.

Tuesday will feature some early morning clouds, along with the chance of some showers. This should end quickly, with increasing sun across most of the region. There is a low probability of a pop up shower in the afternoon. It will be warm, with highs in the lower 80’s. Watch for clouds to rapidly move back into the area Tuesday night, along with the chance of showers. These showers may linger into the first part of Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the upper 70’s. It should be generally dry Wednesday night with lows in the 60’s once again.

Another front may swing through New England Thursday, bringing another chance of some showers, I do not expect a washout at this point. Now for the good news. After that front pushes off the coast, I am expecting a beautiful stretch of weather from Friday, straight through Labor Day. Temperatures will start off on the cool side, with highs in the upper 70’s on Friday and Saturday, warming to the mid 80’s on Sunday, and possibly near 90 by Labor Day!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be previewing the weather for September, as well as reviewing how August turned out. With it being the beginning of September, I will also have a preview for autumn. I will also have a new tropical update for you. In the meantime, the sun has come out here in southeast New Hampshire, I think I’ll head to the pool!

Have a safe & happy Labor Day!

Pete

More great summer weather! 8/19/13

There are many things that I love about New England. One of them, of course, is the weather. There is a saying: the constant thing about change, is change itself. This saying can also be applied to the weather we have here. I have said this before, but it’s worth repeating. The beauty about the climate here in New England, is that at any given point, at any time, we can experience a particular climate from all different parts of the world, right here in New England! I’m sure you would agree if you kept a journal of the weather we experience over the course of a year. Just think about this year for example. We still have several more months to go, but already we have experienced blizzards in February and March, flooding rains in June, blistering heat and humidity in July, and now chamber of commerce weather here in August!

So why is this? Why is our weather so variable here? To answer this, we must look at our geographic location on earth. New England is situated exactly between the distance of the North Pole and the Equator. Just this location itself makes us vulnerable for rapidly changing weather conditions. Mother Nature is in a constant flux of trying to decide whether we should be warm or cold. Add Canada just to our north, the Atlantic Ocean to our east, and the tropics to our south, and we are in spot where just about anything can occur!

Speaking of the Atlantic, we have the Gulf Stream adding tremendous heat energy to our southeast, and the Labrador Current to our northeast adding cold energy. Mix all these factors together, and you can have an atmospheric time bomb on your hands! Fortunately, at least for this week, there are no atmospheric time bombs ready to go off.

Switching  gears for a moment, I was fortunate to take a short trip down the Cape this past weekend. Yes, it turned out to be  mainly cloudy on Sunday, even some light rain towards the end of the day. But it was what happened on Saturday evening that have many of my friends and family still chatting about today. If you were not fortunate enough to see it in person, I hope you saw someone’s picture on you favorite social media outlet.

While sitting on Old Silver’s Beach in West Falmouth, Ma. my sister in-law asked me what I thought the prospects were of a colorful sunset. I told her it has potential, as I saw hints of vivid red already developing on the horizon, as well as a nice sliver of clear skies angling in towards the sun. As sunset neared, it was clear we had one for the record books on our hands, as professional  photographer’s and regular folks flocked to the beach with their cameras. As the sun set, the sky was on fire.

However, it wasn’t until the sun actually set below the horizon when the show really started. This is when the sun’s rays reflected off of the clouds, casting a vale of brilliant red color, which reflected off of the water. It was Mother Nature’s way of showing us how photoshop should really be done…natural style.  Unfortunately for me, my phone lost battery power just as the event neared. Maybe next time!  

Not to be left out, Mother Nature shared her artistry for folks who live up north. I believe people in New Hampshire and Maine did not have the same type of sunset on Saturday. However, my sister called me last night from up north, and said that they too experienced a similar type of sunset on Sunday evening!

Now that we are in hurricane season, I did want to briefly talk about a sorm that hit the Cape back in 1991. It was about this date, that Hurricane Bob passed over Marion. Ma. as a category 2 hurricane. With this path, areas to the south and east bore the brunt of the storm. Storm surges of up to 15 feet, and winds of up to 120 m.ph. caused considerable damage for many areas of the Cape, especially towns close to Buzzard’s Bay, such as Falmouth and Marion.  From the Boston area north and west, it only turned out to be a rainy, windy day. This was the last hurricane to cause any considerable damage here in New England.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10, it looks like another great vacation week coming up! Look for mostly sunny skies for today with light winds and low levels of humidity, highs will be near 80. Tonight will be a pleasant summer night, with lows dropping into the lower 60’s.

Watch for it to be a little warmer on Tuesday, with sunny weather continuing. With winds coming in from the southwest, look for temperatures to rise to the lower to mid 80’s. Expect fair and warmer weather tomorrow night, with lows in the mid 60’s.

As high pressure moves to our south, expect southwest winds to freshen on Wednesday and Thursday. With this airflow, expect hazy sun, hot and humid weather to build back into the region, with highs both days close to 90. Watch for the full Sturgeon Moon Wednesday night!

As a front approaches, look for clouds to increase, along with the chance of a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm anytime from Thursday evening into the day on Friday. Later Friday, any showers will begin move off the coast, with cooler and dryer air flowing back into New England. Right now, the weather for this weekend looks spectacular once again, with sunny skies, and temperatures in the upper 70’s and very low 80’s, which is very seasonable temperatures for this time of year.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new tropical update for you. Despite the fall like weather, we have to be on gaurd here in New England for a hurricane in September. The tropics are going to become very active over the next several weeks. I will also have your new vacation week forecast, as well as your all important Labor Day forecast! Yes, Labor Day is two weeks from today! In the meantime, to be more prepared, always expect the unexpected  here in New England, just not for this week!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

Pleasant weather to continue…8/12/13

After the spectacular weather of this past weekend, one would quickly forget that much of the region received btween 2 and 4″ of rain on Friday! Yes, as they say, timing is everything in life. I think most people would take that deal with Mother Nature! The rains of Friday certainly brought a flashback to the weather we had in June. However, unlike the storms in June, this system was progressive, and cleared the coast by early Saturday morning. This left all of New England with a stong west wind airflow, whipping drier air into the region. The clean dry air brought much of the area ideal viewing conditions for the Perseid Meteor Showers last night. Even with the city lights, I was able to see several shooting stars dart across the sky. I hope you were in a more rural setting and were able to see some too!

With the recent light touch of fall in the air, some folks have been asking me if summer is done for the year. As I have said in previous blogs, I don’t believe so. After the oppressive heat of July, so far, August has had plenty of its share of pleasant weather. However, I am beginning to see signs that summer part II may begin to show up here in New England starting sometime next week.  Along with building heat, expect higher levels of humidity to settle into New England, possibly for the rest of the summer! So if you thought you were done with the a.c.’s for the year, think again!

This heat I am talking about is not for this week. This week will feature another,” let’s make a deal day with Mother Nature.”  How about one day of rain on Tuesday, for a stretch of dry, sunny weather from Wednesday through the weekend? Yes! I will accept that deal as well!

This Friday is the annual Martha’s Vineyard Oak Bluff’s Fire Dep’t fireworks show for charity…the weather could not look any better. In fact friday could end up being one of the top 10 days of the year! It won’t be until sometime next week when the heat and humidity begins to build back into New England. In fact, I am expecting us to have one, possibly even two more heat waves before the summer fades. With the tropical flow coming out of the tropics, New England must be on gaurd for a hurricane towards the end of the month, into September.

Speaking of hurricanes, things have been rather quiet in the Atlantic as of late. However, NOAA has released their updated forecast for the rest of the season, and the news is concerning. NOAA is still expecting an above average year for named storms and major hurricanes. This means conditions will rapidly become favorable for storm development. Expect a rapid increase in named storms starting about August 15th through September 15th. During this period, you can expect approximately 12 named storms to form, with 3 to 5 of these storms becoming major hurricanes. Now, of course not all of these storms will strike land. However, it only takes one to cause billions of dollars in damages. Where this storm will strike is still impossible to answer. The area of concern this year is New England, and the U.S. southeast coast. I will keep you posted as we move deeper into hurricane season, and of course if any storm threatens New England. 

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to quickly talk about a natural event that recently occurred. After a dormant period of nearly two years, a deadly volcano erupted in Indonesia over the weekend, killing at least 6 people. This is important, as I believe volcano eruptions are critical in regulating the temperature on earth. This type of eruption sends millions of tons of dust particles into the atmosphere, blocking solar radiation from reaching earth.  This type of eruption can cause local cooling of the climate. If other volcano’s erupt simultaneously around the world, it can cause chaotic weather patterns to ensue globally. The last major volcanic event was the Iceland eruptions some 3 years ago. These eruptions caused massive delays in air travel in Europe, and also shifted weather patterns for us here in New England.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer vaction forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Aside from tomorrow, this will be a great week of vacation weather! Look for a bit more humidity today than recent days, with mainly sunny weather and highs near 80. It will be a fine evening for outdoor activities, but clouds will be on the increase during the night, lows will mainly be in the 60’s.

Tuesday will feature mainly cloudy skies, with periods of showers and a few possibly some thunderstorms moving through from time to time. At this point, I do not expect as much rain as we had last Friday, but enough rain to water the lawns and gardens is likely.

 As the front clears the area tomorrow night, expect clearing skies and drier air to move into the region. In fact, you can expect sunny skies and dry conditions from wednesday through Friday. Temperatures will manily be in the 70’s during the day and lots of 50’s at night. It may warm up a bit on Friday to about 82 degrees, with sunny skies and light winds, this will be the pick of the week, and also a top 10 day of the year!

 As for the weekend, Saturday looks very nice as well, with temperatures near 80. If a system comes close enough, there may be a few more clouds on Sunday, otherwise, expect mainly sunny & dry weather conditions to continue!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be focusing on what type of weather you can expect for the final two week’s of the summer. I will also have a new tropical update, as well as talk about a hurricane that struck the Cape back in 1991. I will also have a  new vacation planner forecast for you. In the meantime, enjoy the pleasant September like weather here in August.  The next time we may see weather like this, it may be fall for real!

Thanks for reading,

Pete

The feel of fall…8/5/13

Hello! I hope everyone enjoyed the rather summer like weekend we had across New England. Yes, there were a few pop up showers around yesterday, but for the most part,  the weather turned out warm and dry. If you are interested in different types of clouds and sky condition, yesterday was your kind of day! The day started off clear and sunny with blue skies. However, as the day wore on, puffy cumulus clouds began to build. These clouds continued to build during the day with some turning into towering cumulonimbus clouds, resulting in some brief downpours and some colorful rainbows around the region!

With conditions like yesterday, the sun is its worst enemy. After a cold front moved through the region on Saturday night, we had cold air moving into the area. At first, this cold air moves in aloft. When the sun heats the ground up, the heat rises, and collides with the cooler unstable air up above. This causes cumulus clouds to form. If the clouds build high enough, brief heavy downpours of rain occur.

For myself, my short summer New England trips took me to my sister and brother in-law’s house up here in coastal New Hampshire. Like many areas, the morning was brilliant, with blue skies and temperatures warming up fast. I was relaxing on the porch watching the clouds slowly build. Eventually, the clouds built up, releasing a quick ten minute downpour. After it left, steam evaporated from the warm ground, and in no time it hadn’t even seemed like it rained!

Along with sky watching, the other show in town was the abundance of Humming Birds flying around this summer! It has been years since I have seen so many. At any given point, there may have been 8 to 10 flying around the feeders. My brother in-law and me were chatting about what could be the cause of so many more birds this summer. We both came to the conclusion that it must have alot to do with the very warm weather we experienced in late June and through July. The flow from the tropics must have transported more birds than usual up from the south. If anyone has any other ideas, I would be interested to hear them!

Getting back to the weather now, yes, the feel of fall is in the air! In fact, while sleeping last night, I heard a familiar sound whisteling through the windows. It was the sound of a gusty north wind coming straight out of Canada! When I stepped outside this morning, it had the distinct feel of September to it. This should not come as a complete surprise to everyone. In just last week’s blog, I forecasted a brief shot of chilly air paying a visit to us here in early August. After reviewing some of the weather charts this morning, this September like pattern, may actually stick around for a while. For many, this is a welcome change from all of the sifling humidity we endured through much of the summer so far.

However, there is a group of people, and a rather large one at that, including my sister Pam, who are not too keen about the idea of starting September in August! Perhaps after the deluge of rain in June, and the unbearable heat of July, Mother Nature has found the perfect equilibrium of weather to please everyone here in August? At least  for this week, and most likely most of next, I see mostly a cooler than normal weather pattern setting up for us here in New England. Of course, a cooler than normal pattern in August does not mean break out the overcoats and gloves. It could mean many days with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s. I’m sure you won’t hear many complaining with weather like that!

So does this mean I throw out the original forecast I had for August? I don’t believe so. The water off our coast is still at record high levels. I believe once this brief autumn chill passes, another surge of summer like weather will invade New England. Along with this, we must be on guard for a hurricane striking New England. I know it seems far fetched right now, but the hurricane season is just starting to get going. I believe this year, the peek of the season will coincide with a burst of hurricane activity that will keep meteorologists and weather enthusiast such as myself very busy into September.

My brother in-law Michael is in the camp that the hurricane season is toast this year. He believes, and rightfully so at this point, that the excessive African dust is going to inhibit hurricane development. This dust has been an usual deterant for hurricane development the past couple seasons. African dust is the result of ongoing drought conditions over the middle of the continent. The dust rises and gets picked up by the easterly trade winds and gets carried out into the Atlantic Ocean, inhibiting storm development. I believe this dust is going to dissipate as we move later into August, resulting in the sudden increase in hurricane activity which I am expecting. This coupled with the Bermuda High building back into New England, will act as a channel, or pathway for a storm to hit New England.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week another 7 out of 10. Expect a brilliant, September like day for the rest of your Monday. Look for sunny skies, low humidity, and high temperatures manily in the upper 70’s. Tonight will feature fall like conditions, with mainly clear skies, and lows will be mainly in the 50’s. However, there will be some lows in the 40’s in the sheltered valleys away from the coast. Temperatures may only fall to only near 60 in urban heat island locations.

Tuesday will be similar weather to today, with mainly sunny skies and highs near 80. It may not be quite as cool Tuesday night, with clear skies, along with some high clouds increasing, with lows in the 50’s and low 60’s. It should be mostly dry for Wednesday, however it won’t be nearly as sunny, with clouds increasing during the day, highs should be near 80 once again.

Right now, both Thursday and Friday look to be unsettled, with many showers and possibly some thunderstorms from time to time. If things move along accordingly, next weekend should feature fine summer weather, with mainly sunny skies. Saturday should be a great beach day with fairly warm temperatures mainly in the 80’s, with Sunday cooling back a few degrees into the upper 70’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will be talking about just how much longer we can expect this September like weather to continue. I will also have a new tropical update and your summer vacation forecast! In the meantime, keep the extra blanket handy, and let’s hope we don’t have another Sandy!

Peter