Weekend washout! 5/23/13

When I was kid, I very much looked forward to Memorial Day weekend. There were all sorts of good things to look forward to. The end of school was near. It was the official start of the summer season. Going to the beach, fishing, and hanging out with friends were times that will never be forgotten. Unfortunately, for many of those years, I remember something fowling up the good fun we all had during this holiday weekend. Many times it was the weather. I vividly remember meteorologists forecasting  great weekend of weather, only to be caught by surprise by an unexpected weather system coming out of no where turning the weather wet & cold! Recently, we seem to have had a stretch of beautiful weather for Memorial Day weekends.

So with all that being said, it seems as if we have come full circle. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I have to make significant changes to the weekend forecast issued on Monday.  What once looked like a dry weekend with cool temperatures, has suddenly taken a much more sinister look to it today. It first appeared as if a storm would affect us tonight and into tomorrow morning with some heavy rain. This still looks to be the case, but now it also has eyes on our Memorial Day weekend.

It now looks like this storm is going to stall just east of New England. At the same time, a piece of unseasonably cold air in the upper atmosphere is going to capture this storm and create a bit of a late season nor’easter around here. In fact, it may even get cold enough, that some higher elevations of Vermont and western Massachusetts may see…snow! I know, I know, it’s Memorial Day weekend for crying out loud! But don’t forget, this is New England, and our weather can be anything but normal around here at times! I don’t know, blame it on the year!

Here is my updated forecast for the weekend. I will rate the weather for this weekend a 5 out of 10. And the 5 points is only because the weather may improve on the holiday itself. So it’s not a complete washout! Expect a slow moving cold front to start pushing into the area overnight. I do expect the Red Sox to be able to get the game in. Thereafter, however, watch for rain to move in. This rain will fall heavily at times overnight, with a chance of some embedded thunderstorms, especially over southeastern New England.

Expect it to be rainy and muggy weather for coastal areas on Friday, with highs mainly in the 60’s. The Red Sox game may be in jeopardy tomorrow night, and again on Saturday! Watch for temperatures to turn progressively colder on Saturday, where high temperatures may not get out of the 50’s! In addition, you can expect a gusty northeast wind to add to the chill, along with periods of rain, some of which may be heavy.

 As mentioned earlier, some of the computer models were actually showing the freezing level penetrating into some parts of New England. If this verifies, it would not shock me to see some wet snow in the higher elevatuions of Vermont and western Massachusetts! 

By Sunday, most of the heavy rain should have moved north of our latitude. This means southern New England may begin to dry out a bit, but there still may be some light showers, and it will still be chilly. Expect improving weather for Memorial Day itself, with skies clearing and temperatures rebounding to close to 70 degrees…not real beach weather.

Well that’s about it for now! Before I sign off, I did want to let you know that some of the long range computer models are showing a significant warming trend towards the end of next week. At this point, I will believe it when I see it! My official summer forecast will be on line come next week! In the meantime, plan on doing some indoor activities for this weekend…how about catching up on some sleep?  ~~~Have a safe and happy Memorial Day weekend!~~~

Pete

Countdown to summer…5/20/13

Hard to believe Memorial Day is one week from today! Traditionally, Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial start of the summer season. The official first day of astronomical summer is June 21st. Meteorologists like to break the four seasons up into four quarters. Since there are four seasons, spring would consist of March, April and May. Summer is June, July and August, and so on. In Mother Nature’s timetable, things are a bit different. Typically, the seasons lag behind the weather one would expect during this transition. For instance, when meteorological spring began March 1st this year, the Boston area was hit by several heavy snow storms leading right up until the spring equinox.

If you are a regular reader of my blog, you have heard me talk about a phenominon called latent heating and cooling. I talk about this quite often for several reasons. One reason is because I find this topic quite interesting. The second is because it’s a very important factor in determining the weather we call our climate. Because New England resides next to a large body of water called the Atlantic Ocean, we feel the effects of latent heating and cooling more here than other parts of the country.

So what is latent heating and cooling? Let’s start with the earth. Believe it or not, the earth is actually close to 75% covered by water! In meteorology school, they require you take a course soley on thermodynamics.  This is actually a very complex mathematical course on laws of heating and cooling. I never took the course, but what I do know in simple terms, is that the land heats up quicker than water. This is why there is a lag time for seasons to mature here in New England. In spring, the ocean has taken all winter to cool down to its lowest temperature, many times keeping coastal New England chilly. Since the land heats up quicker than the water, cooler ocean winds keep coastal areas a good 10 degrees cooler than the interior. In the fall, the reverse occurs, and the ocean stays very warm from all of the  radiation the oceans received from the sun during the course of the summer. This keeps areas of coastal New England warmer well into the fall than one would normally expect. So while many interior locations receive there first frost by early October, it may not be for another month before frost reaches the coast!

So when meteorological summer begins on June 1st, it’s time to go to the beach, right? In some years, yes. Typically, however, true summer weather doesn’t spread into New England until after the summer solstice. This is Mother Nature’s own timetable to let us know exactly who’s in charge! So far, I would say spring has been very close to what we normally would expect around here temperature wise. Of more concern, has been the re-appearance of the abnormally dry conditions around here once again. Despite a couple of snowy months during the winter, much of southern New England has been battling with below average amounts of precipitaion stemming back from two winters ago. Looking ahead, we do have some chances of rain coming up this week, with many areas receiving a few soaking showers. My official summer forecast will be released next week! 

Last week, I gave some scenerios of what the weather may be like for the upcoming holiday weekend. I am very happy to report that the more optimistic, nice weather outcome apprears as if it will prevail. Yes, it will be somewhat unsettled during the week, however, if all works out, it appears as if a strong cold front will sweep this weather system out to sea by the weekend! This strong cold front will usher in a unseasonably chilly airmass come Saturday and Sunday. By Monday, temperatures will begin to warm up enough to be enjoying the outdoors in summer attire once again. The important thing is that there will be no rainy damp weather!

Now for your official weekly summer outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week another 7 out of 10. For the rest of your Monday, expect partly sunny weather this afternoon. It will be warmer and a bit muggy, with highs in the upper 70’s. Watch for a scattered shower or thunderstorm late today or tonight, especially over the interior.

Watch for shifting winds overnight, with mostly cloudy weather and some patchy fog. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40’s and low 50’s. Tuesday will feature cooler weather, with highs mainly in the 60’s. It will be mainly dry, with some intervals of sun with clouds.

Expect a wavy warm front to move back north of our region for Wednesday and Thursday. This means it will turn warmer and muggier all over again. In addition, there may be some scattered showers and thunderstorms at any time, but especially during the heating of the day during the afternoon. Temperatures will warm back up into the upper 70’s and low 80’s. Our best chance of any widespread rain appears to be on Thursday night into Friday morning, when we may receive a more widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Watch for clearing, drier weather during Friday afternoon, along with falling temperatures through the 60’s. Right now, Saturday through Sunday look mainly sunny and dry. However, I must tell you, the first two days of the weekend will feel more fall like than the beginning of summer. Highs will be in the very low 60’s on Saturday, mid 60’s on Sunday, and warming up to the mid 70’s on Monday, so that should feel nice!

If you are planning to go camping or hiking this weekend, expect dry, sunny weather. Be prepared for downright cold weather Saturday night, with many interior and mountain locations dipping down into the 30’s! It should be a nice clear night to enjoy the full “Flower Moon” on Saturday night!  Temperatures during the day will be in the upper 50’s and low 60’s Saturday, mid to upper 60’s Sunday, and low to mid 70’s on Monday.

Needless to say, if you want to go to the beach, bring a heavy sweatshirt for Saturday, a lighter sweatshirt for Sunday. For Memorial Day itself, you may get a few hours of tanning weather during the heat of the day, say from 12 to 3 p.m. where temperatures will warm into the mid 70’s for a time. Overall, despite the cool feel, it will be a nice weekend to spend with family or friends enjoying the wonderful resources of New England!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I am planning on publishing my summer forecast. I will also have a new weekly forecast, and my new segment for specific beach, camping and hiking forecast. In the meantime, whether you are going to the beach house for the first time, spending time in the garden,  or camping in the hills of New England, remember the true meaning of Memorial Day. Let’s not forget the people who fought for our country, and also the victims and heroes of the Boston Marathon bombings.   

~~~Have a safe & happy Memorial Day!~~~

Pete

Brief chill…then warmer! 5/13/13

After a shaky start yesterday, Mother Nature pulled through for all the mom’s out there with a sunnier, warmer afternoon. Whether you still have your mom or not, I hope everyone was able to at least gather with family to enjoy a universal holiday where we can pay tribute to the hard working mom’s of the world!  Let us not forget all of the step mother’s, aunties,  grandmother’s and godmother’s who who all contribute to undoubtedly one of the more difficult jobs in the world. I am grateful to have had, and still do, all of the above in my life at one point or another!

Moving on to the weather. While spending time with family yesterday, many asked me what the upcoming weather will be like. Needless to say, when I said we will have frosts and freeze warnings posted for tonight, they were a bit surprised. My sister protested the talk of cold, and claimed that I wrote in my blog a couple of weeks ago that we had seen the last of the cold. I will have to investigate these allegations to see if this is true! ; ) 

The truth is, whether I wrote it or not, there is an unseasonably cold shot of weather coming for tonight and tomorrow night. Many areas, if you live outside of Boston and the Cape, will plummet into the 20’s tonight! In urban areas and down the Cape, temperatures will remain above freezing, but even here furnaces may click on for a time. Since the growing season has begun for much of us here in eastern Massachusetts, frost and freeze warning will be posted overnight. If you have tender vegetation or plants, be prepared for sub-freezing temperatures overnight! In the deep interior of New England,  and up north, warnings will not be posted because the growing season has not started just yet. This is fortunate, because here temperatures will be even colder!

Although not unprecedented, the chill is pushing the limits of average last dates for frost around here. On average, the middle of May is generally the last chance for frost across the interior. Along the coast, and urban areas, this date is a month earlier. It seems so unusual this year because this has not happened in years. In reality, yes, it is going to be cold tonight, but it’s actually just about average for us here in New England. With some precautions, we will get through this brief chill, and all will be back on track for our growing season. In the big picture, these type of things generally happen for a reason. Mother Nature has a system, and there’s nothing we can do to change this. On the brighter side, it is the middle of May, so by midweek, the warm May sunshine will have us back to near 70!

It’s hard to believe, but we are now within two weeks of Memorial Day weekend! This means two things. Around here, it’s the unofficial beginning of summer, and this is when my official summer forecast will be released! Looking at some of the long range forecast, there will be some inclement weather to be dealt with. At some point or another, there will stretch of wet weather to get through. If things work out just right, this rainy weather will happen just before the weekend, then push off the coast for us to enjoy some fair weather during the weekend. One thing I do not see is any early season heat waves on the way. It still appears as if there will be a trough over our area during this period, resulting in temperatures at or a little cooler than normal. I will have a full, more in depth forecast for your Memorial Day weekend in my next blog.

Right now, the early call for this summer is for it to be a cooler and possibly slightly wetter summer. This does not mean we are not going to have a summer! At this point, I just don’t see a hotter than normal summer like we have had for the past few. This may just mean that we have a seasonable summer this year. It just may be a bit shorter than what we have been used to over the last several years. All of this is preliminary and my final forecast will not be published for a couple more weeks…so this can still change!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect mainly sunny weather for the rest of today, along with some puffy fair weather clouds. It will be on the cool side, along with a brisk wind at times. Highs will generllay be a few degrees of either side of 60.

Watch for freeze and frosts warnings to be posted tonight. As skies clear and the winds drop off, this will be ideal conditions for radiational cooling to set in. If you live outside of Boston, especially outside of Rt 128, even south and southwest of the city, you can expect temperatures to fall into the upper 20’s and very low 30’s. Inland from the city, within Rt128, lows will be in the mid 30’s, but should remain just above freezing. At Logan airport and down along the immediate coast towards the Cape, temperatures will fall to the upper 30’s and low 40’s, still chilly for May! Temperatures up north will be winterlike, with widespread lows in the 20’s…brrrr!!

Tuesday will continue with the fall like weather, with mainly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60’s. Expect a similar temperature profile for Tuesday night under mainly clear skies. Look for a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday. It will be a warmer afternoon, with highs approaching 70.

There may be a period of showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Later on Thursday, the sun should come back out. It will continue to be mild with highs in the low 70’s. Like last week, temperatures may warm up to near 80 on Friday, with sunny skies. I say this will be the pick of the week!

After possibly a few morning showers on Saturday, next weekend looks mainly dry to me. It will cool down a little, but not to the level of today. Temperatures should mainly be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will focus in on your Memorial Day weekend forecast! I will also have your weekly outdoor activity forecast. Starting next week, I will also give a more in depth beach, hiking and camping forecast for regions across New England! In the meantime, you may need to reach for that blanket overnight, then pull out the shorts later in the week, all part of living in New England in the spring!   (((GO BRUINS)))!!

Pete

Spring has sprung…a leak! 5/6/13

For Greek Orthodox folks who celebrated Easter yesterday, it was a beautiful day. I spent the day up in southern New Hampshire eating too much, and chasing baseballs being hit by my nephew. Yet, despite the 100% of the possible sunshine, there seemed to be something missing. Trees are blooming across the region, flowers are out for the most part, and the sun felt warm. However, you still needed a warm jacket out there! It’s been downright chilly along the coast! In fact, recent nights have been down right cold around here! Many areas are still getting down into frosty temperatures.

What’s the cause for the chilly temperatures? Blame the large body of water right next to us called the Atlantic Ocean. Despite the chilly temperatures, it has also been unusually dry for weeks on end around here. We are in a classic spring blocking pattern. It just happens that New England has been in the sunny and dry region of the block. In weather terms, they call this pattern an “Omega Block,” because it looks like the Greek letter Omega on the weather charts. Here in New England, we have been in the subsidence side of the block, or ridging, fair weather.

If you live in the midwest, it has been anything but this. Many areas have endured through one of the coldest and snowiest springs on record. When this block retrogrates westward, as it did this weekend, cooler marine air blows in from the ocean, chilling the coast of New England. However, If you live in the interior, say 30 or 40 miles inland, you have been enjoying a taste of summerlike weather as of late! All in all, it is a fairly typical spring weather pattern for here in New England.

So what’s next? Is our mild, dry pattern going to continue? Unfortunately, I don’t believe so. No, I don’t see late season snow on the way, but a cooler, damp pattern may be in store for us. It has been an unusually dry April, and now beginning of May. We actually need the rainfall. Officially, we are not in a drought, but it’s on the edge. If you recall, two winters ago was one of the warmest driest winters on record here in New England. Then came a hot, dry summer last year. Beneficial snows fell over this past winter, only to be followed by more dry weather this spring. So basically, three out of the last four seasons have been dry here in New England.

I don’t see flooding rains coming, but a few periods of wet and cooler weather are in store for us starting on Wednesday and possibly continuing into the weekend. The one positive aspect of the impending wet weather, is that it will cleanse the air of the pollen. For allergy sufferers, this will be a welcome change!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to talk a bit about weather history. This is possibly the last time I speak about snow until next October. It doesn’t happen often, but it can snow here in New England in May. In fact, folks up in northern New England has seen some heavy snowfalls through the years in May. Here in southern New England it’s much more rare. However, back on May 9th, 1977, a damaging late season storm brought a heavy snowfall to many areas in southern New England…on Mother’s Day! Only about a half inch of snow fell at Logan airport. However, many of Boston’s neighborhoods accumulated up to 4″ of snow. Further inland, up to 22″ of snow fell, especially in higher elevations! This type of heavy, wet snow, combined with fully foliated trees, caused significant power outages and tree damage across the area.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. I am expecting several episodes of rain this week. For the rest of your Monday, expect any low clouds to burn off, with beautiful, sunny weather being the rule for the afternoon. It will be a little warmer than yesterday, with highs in the lower 60’s at the coast, and lower 70’s inland. Watch for low clouds to reform again tonight, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week. Look for early morning low clouds to burn off, with mostly sunny weather during the afternoon. It will turn warmer, with highs manily in the 70’s. Watch for clouds to increase Tuesday night, with lows in the 40’s again.

Wednesday will turn out to be a cloudy day, with showers moving into the region from south to north during the afternoon. It will be cooler, with highs mainly in the 60’s. Expect delays and cancellations Wednesday night, with showers and damp condtions. 

Thursday may start rainy, with showers and perhaps some thunder, but watch for conditions to improve during the afternoon. Highs will mainly be in the 60’s. We may get a break on Friday from the rain. I can’t rule out a shower, but generally dry conditions are expected right now.

At this point, next weekend looks unsettled to me. Watch for showers to move back in during the day on Saturday with highs once again in the 60’s. Unfortunately, it looks like an unsettled day right now for Mother’s Day. Look for cloudy weather, with periods of showers moving through…hope that will change!

That’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a closer look at the weather for the month of May. I will also let you know just how long the new wet pattern will stick around for. I will also have a special preview for summer 2013. In the meantime, enjoy the next two days here in New England…it will be springtime weather at its best!

~~~~~~~~Happy Mother’s Day to all!~~~~~~~~~

Pete

Spring has sprung! 4/29/13

After the tragic marathon bombing events, I think the region could of used a pick me up. Mother Nature did not disappoint, as much of New England has enjoyed a resurgence in springtime weather. The weather could not of gotten much better than this past weekend, where blue skies, light winds, and warm temperatures were the rule. With the milder temperatures of late, green up has finally begun across much of eastern Massachusetts. As the weather continues to warm, green up will spread north as we head into May. Now that the grass is beginning to grow, you can expect to be mowing for the next 6 months.

Heading into May this week, one would think we are done with the cold, rainy weather. Unfortunately, here in coastal New England, May can be one of the cruelest months. This is because of latent heating and cooling. In the fall, the ocean takes longer to cool off, delaying winter from arriving. Same goes for spring, as the cold ocean takes a long time to warm up, delaying spring from arriving here. In addition, jet stream patterns tend to slow down during May due to blocking patterns, sometimes locking us into cold, rainy patterns for days on end. Many years, spring seems non-existant, as we go straight from winter to summer sometime around Memorial Day!

May is a true transition month, from spring to summertime patterns. Generally speaking, everything is in full bloom by Mother’s Day around here. Despite the recent warm days, I still believe we are running about 1 week behind schedule. Further north, it’s more like 2 weeks behind schedule. Looking ahead to this May, I don’t see any early season heat heading our way. As I have been saying, I believe this will be a cooler year in Boston, than the past few. 

Typically, average temperatures start out in the lower 60’s for highs, and end up in the lower 70’s by months end. Lows start in the lower 40’s, and end up in the lower 50’s by the end of the month. May can be wet, with around 4″ of rain falling on average. With all the snow we had this winter, it doesn’t seem possible, but our area could use the rain. April actually ended up much drier than normal. Temperatures will end up close to the longterm average.

From what I am seeing, at this point, I am expecting a somewhat cooler and wetter May this year for Boston. That does not mean we will not get some nice days with warm temperatures.  I just don’t see summer heat starting early this year. I think we have definitely have been spoiled over the past several springs being much warmer than normal. These early warm starts made summers seem that much longer.

In keeping with the theme of cooler rather than hotter, I am also thinking cooler for this summer. Remember, the early call for for temperatures this year is for cooler than previous years. Does this mean summer is cancelled this year? The short answer to this question is no! Just because I believe it may be cooler, it may turn out to be a fairly typical summer here in New England, not like the scorching previous summers. It just may be a more comfortable summer with less humidity. I’m sure this sounds just fine to many people, including my sister! My official forecast does not come out until around Memorial Day, so things can change!

As we move through a fairly typical spring here in New England, winter still resides in the midwest. Anywhere from Colorado to Minnesota have been plagued by frequent spring snowstorms and unusually cold weather. The large block in the atmosphere that brought us our late winter snow, has retrograted further west. This actually has brought New England dry and mild weather. Further west, it locks in cold and wet weather. As long as this block does not move east, we should continue to have typical spring weather around here for the next week or two. My fear is that during the second week of May, this pattern may begin to break down and slide toward the east. This may bring us periods of wet, cold weather for a time during May.

You would think by this time of the year, Boston would be done with snowstorms…actually no. It’s rare, but it has snowed this late in the year before. Back in 1987, on April 28th and 29th, a large, very late season nor’easter brought a very heavy wet snowfall! In fact, between 4 and 6″ fell in the Boston area, with upwards to 22″ falling in the Worcester hills. Worcester airport recorded 17″ of snow in that storm! This capped off a very wet and cold month of April that year across New England.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I am rating this week an 8 out of 10! It’s going to be a dry and mild week. Look for sun filtered through some high clouds for the rest of your Monday, with highs generally in the 60’s. Winds will shift to the east overnight, this will do two things. First, it will bring clouds in, and second, it will turn cooler. Watch for mostly cloudy weather for Tuesday, with highs mainly in the 50’s. Dry weather will continue Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 40’s.

Expect mainly dry and mild weather from Wednesday through Friday. It won’t be too warm, but at least we will have some sunshine! As a rule of thumb, it will be about 5 degrees warmer inland than it will be along the coast. So expect temperatures to range close to 65 inland and 60 along the coast. By inland, I mean by about 20 miles or so away from the coast.

At this point, it looks like a mainly dry and sunny weekend!  High temperatures will be warming up a bit to mid 60’s along the coast, and close to 70 inland. I still don’t see any appreciable rain around here until maybe towards the middle of next week. Because of this, brush fire danger will be high across the area, so please be careful out there!

Well that’s about it for now! In next weeks blog, I will be taking a more in depth look at the outlook for May. I will also have your forecast for Mother’s Day! I will also have another version of weather history. In the meantime, now that spring has sprung, it’s time to put winter in the past, and look forward to the new surprises the future has in store for all of us!

~~~~~Happy Greek Orthodox Easter to my family and friends!!~~~~~

Pete

We are united…4/22/13

It has now been one week since the dispicable terrorist attack of the Boston Marathon. At 2:50 this afternoon, many Bostonians will pause in a moment of silence to remember the four people who died, their families, and all those injured in this horrific act.  We all now know what happened, and how it ended 4 days later in Watertown, Ma.  The bigger question is why did this happen? To be honest, there are no clear answers as to why this happened. I do not have the answer to why these things occur. Only God, or your believer in a higher power can help us try and come to some kind of understanding of all this.

What I do know is this. Whatever mission that the terrorists had… failed miserably. If the bombers thought they were going to divide people against one another, frighten us into believing everyone is bad or has evil intentions, then someone forgot to press the send button.

In a miraculous twist of fate, the bombings have made Boston, New England, and the whole country for that matter STRONGER than what we were before! In a unprecedented act of collaboration between government, all law enforcement officials, firefighters,  EMT’s, volunteers, citizens and local area hospitals, good prevailed over evil. This is a good example that when someone attacks you, you don’t lie back and just take it. You fight back!  Boston came together, to assemble a task force like no other seen, to hunt these terrorists down and make them accountable for their actions.

The end result was one coward dead, and the other barely hanging onto what little life he originally had. For this reason, I was very proud to be a citizen of Boston, and an American. This does not bring back the 4 innocent people who lost their lives, and the pain and suffering to all family members involved, and those who were injured. However, it should show as a good example, that if people even think about doing something like this again, we will unite as army, and do whatever it takes to make you accountable.

With all of this being said, we must remember that we are living in a different world today. Yes, we were frightened when the attack occured. Yes, people lost their lives and were severely injured. But they did not die in vain!! Folks, make no mistake about it, we are in war today. Right now, here in Boston. No, this is not like the war you read about in your history books from high school. The war against terrorism has landed right here in our city. The enemy here are not soldiers. Soldiers are not cowards. These people have no regard for life. They just assume just plant a bomb in a crowd of innocent people and then walk away out of harms way…just like a coward would do. Shameful.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to mention another way how the area came together to remember, and begin the healing process. Our local sports teams are rich in tradition. Not only in winning championships, but also in times of crisis.  We love our sports teams. We are passionate, in times of victory, and in times of tragic events. The ceremonies of all sports teams over the past week paying tribute for all those involved in the attack, were as much of a tear jerker as any well done Hollywood film. It showed a level of compassion that reached beyond what was expected. It united a region together to remember the victims, and the heroes, in a class act way. Way to go Boston, we are proud! We are strong!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity spring forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, due to the warmer weather expected later in the week. After some chilly weather over the weekend, things will begin to warm up in a couple days. For the rest of today, expect increasing clouds, and a chilly wind off of the ocean, highs will only be in the upper 40’s…brrr!! 

Watch for damp and rainy weather to move into the region late tonight, and continue well into the day tomorrow. With a cold northeast wind, look for temperatures again to only be in the 40’s. The damp weather may continue into Tuesday night and the first thing on Wednesday.

Look for improving weather during the day on Wednesday, with highs rebounding into the 60’s. Thursday should feature more mild weather with a mix of sun and clouds, highs will be in the 60’s to possibly near 70. There may be some showers Thursday night, but this should clear out during the day on Friday, with highs near 70 again! Right now, I am expecting mostly fair weather next weekend, with sunshine and seasonably mild temperatures, with highs mainly in the upper 60’s!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will begin to look into what kind of weather we may have in store for us for the month of May, as well as have a review of April. I may even give a quick preview for summer 2013. I will also have a version of weather history. In the meantime, in a show of unity and prayer, please try and take a moment of silence at 2:50 this afternoon, in rememberance of the time of the bombings last week. ~Thanks for reading!~

Pete

Easing into spring…4/15/13

Happy Patriots’ Day! What a relief for marathon runners knowing that temperatures will be close to 40 degrees cooler than it was for last year’s marathon. Yes, last year temperatures soared to near 90 degrees! Along with the warm temperatures, I remember spring was rapidly transitioning into summer, with trees already blooming, people mowing their lawns, and many already having a beach day! What a difference a year makes! 

This year, I estimate we are approximately 3 weeks behind schedule in the spring timetable. The delay is even greater as one travels to the north. In fact, many ski areas are closing up north, not due to the lack of snow. They have plenty of that (many areas received another few inches yeasterday). It’s just that most people are preparing for summer now, and it’s only the diehards who would continue skiing into June. I would not be surprised if some areas such as Killington have a trail or two into June this year! Just because it may be near 70 down here in lower elevations, it’s much colder as one goes up in elevations. A good rule of thumb is every thousand feet you travel up in elevation, it’s generally about 6 degrees cooler in temeperature.

So what else makes Patriots’ Day so special? Well for one, this is a private holiday mainly for Massachusetts and Maine. Yes, at one point Maine and Massachusetts were considered one state! It’s not a federal holiday, however, that does not diminish the importance of the day. On this day, we commemorate the beginning of the Revolutionary War in 1775. Paul Revere, a North End locksmith, jumped on his horse and rode out to Lexington to warn the Minuteman troops that the British were coming!

Yes, we had a legitimate war here in the Boston area, as we fought the British to help gain our independence for our country! In fact, it was the following year in 1776 that America declared its independence! Among some of the battles fought in our area were: the battle at Bunker Hill in Charlestown, Castle Island in South Boston, and in the filelds of Lexington and Concord, Ma. Synominous with the Marathon, the Red sox play their annual game today at Fenway Park!

We are now at the midway point in spring. As stated earlier, we are running well behind schedule with the spring timetable. I don’t expect leaves on our trees until after Mother’s Day this year. In fact, further up north, it may be closer to Memorial Day!  We may have a few warm spikes,  but I still don’t see any sustained warm weather in sight for us here in eastern New England. In fact, heading towards the last 10 days of the month, the Greenland Block may reassert itself, bringing more inclement, cold weather to New England. Areas of the midwest and northern plains have been plagued by unusually cold weather and frequent heavy snowstorms and blizzards this spring.

It would not shock me to see a out of season late winter storm here in New England this year. There is still an unusual amount of cold air up in Canada. When the NAO goes negative, a strong nor’easter may develop along the coast. If this storm develops south of New England, it may be able to tap into some cold air and produce a powerful late season storm. If this event were to happen, I am looking at the period of April 25th – 30th. I will keep you posted on this possibility…I know you will all be anxiously awaiting for this update!

With the spring getting off to such a chilly start, the secret 5th season up in northern New England has also been delayed. This season known to many locals is known as “mud season.” Typically, after a season with heavy snowfalls such this past winter, April brings melting snows, and the frost thawing out in the ground. Up in northern New England, this frost can extend up to 4ft down into the earth. Here in southern New England it’s more like 1 to 2 ft.  The thickness of this frost zone, and the melting snow creates a very muddy top soil. If any significant rainstorms occur during the spring, it makes this situation even worse!

Add tiny black flys to the mix, and you have a very uncomfortable 5th season to contend with! With the cooler weather so far this spring, this mud season has been very gradual and not too bad…so far. However, as we move towards the month of May,  the heavy accumulation of snows in the mountains will begin to melt, turning streams into rivers, and raising the water tables across the area. This will lead to a delayed but not denied mud season across the north!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Expect a week with temperatures averaging a bit above normal for a change. For the rest of you Patriots’ Day, look for a filtered sun through high clouds. It will be pleasant with temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 50’s. This is an average, as it may fall back into the upper 40’s along the coast due to a seabreeze, but be close to 60 inland from Rt 128. Tonight will feature fair weather with lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Look for a beauty on Tuesday, with sun mixed with some clouds, and highs in the 60’s. Tuesday night will also be fair, and lows in the 40’s. For Wednesday, look for more clouds building, and a chance of a few showeres during the afternoon and evening. I am not expecting a washout at this point. It will continue to be mild with highs in the 60’s.

Thursday will be a bit cooler, with dry weather and highs mainly in the upper 50’s. Watch for a warm surge to arrive for Friday with highs moving into the low 70’s! Look for some clouds to be on the increase during the afternoon along with breezy conditions.

Right now, it looks like there will be a band of heavy showers moving through the area sometime on Saturday, with highs near 60. This system looks to clear the coast Saturday night, leading to a partly sunny Sunday, with cooler & windy conditions, highs will mainly be in the 50’s, but may feel cooler than that due to the wind.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will analyze the new data to see if the late season storm will verify or not. I will also see if there are any true signs of any warmer weather coming for New England.  In the meantime, despite it being a slow start to spring, enjoy the majestic scenery as New England begins to awaken from a long snowy winter!

Pete

Changeable weather ahead! 4/8/13

In last week’s blog I was touting about summer weather on the way. Yesterday, while spending some time outdoors with family, my sister questioned where is this summer weather you were talking about Pete?? With mainly cloudy skies, and a very gusty wind, it certainly did still fel more like winter than spring. Reading over last week’s blog, it does appear as if I did get a bit overzealous on the arrival of summertime warmth. I should know better than to look at one computer run and become all giddy. Subsequent following runs blunted this summertime warmth flooding into New England. This does not mean springlike weather is not coming! In fact, with a little luck, we may push 70 tomorrow! However, unlike last year, when summer started in March, it appears as if a much more normal spring is on the way this year for New England. In other words, we’re probably going to go from winter to summer sometime around Memorial Day!

So how does the rest of April look like? I know this is the month the baseball season kicks into full gear across the region. So far, it’s been a bit chilly to say the least. Many communities have been routinely dropping into the 20’s for overnight lows. These cold temperatures have not only delayed green up across the area, but it has also extended ski season to many resorts up in the mountains.

Looking at the long range guidance, I see a roller coaster temperature pattern setting up for the rest of the month. This means spikes of warmer weather, punctuated by periods of cool to chilly weather. These warmer periods should be just enough to get green up going, and the buds starting on the trees.

As stated in previous blogs, this is not like last year. We are looking at a cooler year of weather this year than last. After all, last year was the warmest year on record here in Boston! In addition to the cooler weather, it will also be wetter. Look for periods of rainy weather for the rest of April. I don’t see a complete washout, but expect delays and some cancellations due to rain this April. The good news I have for you today is that I believe the snow season is over for us here in the Boston area!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to talk about a storm we had back on April 6th, 1982. It may not happen this year, but it does snow here in New England in many April’s. Back on this date, an unseasonably cold airmass combined with moisture to produce a late season nor’easter along the east coast. As this storm moved up to New England, this storm turned into a full fledged blizzard. It was a wild day, with gale force winds, blinding blowing snow, frequent thunder and lightning from first thing in the morning until nightfall. When the storm was done, 1 to 2 ft of pure powder fell across much of eastern Massachusetts and southeast New Hampshire. Record bitter cold weather followed after the storm, keeping the snow from melting as quickly as it normally would in an April snowfall. I would say, on average, we have a snowstorm in April once every 5 years here in southern New England. With a major event about once every 10 years. In the north country, you can cut those averages in half.

Speaking of snow, many ski resorts are exending there spring ski seasons through April. With the cooler spring and heavy winter snowfalls, many ski resorts still have plenty of snow on the slopes! In fact, up until this week, many areas still had mid-winter conditions! If you plan on going, I would call before to make sure they are running the lifts!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. Watch for a changeable week of weather this week. I would rate it a 6 out of 10, warmer early, cooler and wetter late. For the rest of today and the Red Sox home opener, look for sunshine mixed with high clouds. Expect temperatures to start out in the low 60’s, but drop back into the middle 50’s later in the day due to a light seabreeze.

Tonight will feature a chance of a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder coming through. It will be on the mild side with lows mainly in the 40’s. Tuesday may start off on the damp side, but watch some sunshine to break through during the afternoon. If this happens, watch for temperatures to warm up close to 70 degrees!

Expect unsettled weather for the period of Wednesday through Friday. It still may be mild on Wednesday, with highs in the 60’s. However, look for a shift to a northeast wind and cooler weather moving into later in the day. In addition, there may be a period of showers at some point both Wednesday and Thursday.

Later on Thursday into Friday, a more significant storm may develop and soak us with a good rainstorm. The good news is that this storm should move out of the area in time for the weekend. I am expecting a mixture aof clouds and sun and cool temperatures in the 50’s for both days. Right now, I am expecting similar weather conditions for the Boston Marathon happening a week from today. Much cooler than the 90 degree heat of last year!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be talking about a secret season that will be starting soon especially in northern New England. I will also be on the lookout for any more warm weather which may be on the way. In the meantime, be prepared for typical changeable spring weather here in New England this week! This may include everything from t-shirts and light jackets to rain slickers and umbrellas…just keep the flip flops on hold for now!

Go Red Sox!

Pete

From winter to summer?? 4/1/13

Good morning! For those who celebrated, I hope everyone had a Happy Easter! The weather certainly was Easter like, with many areas reaching 60 degrees over the weekend. With today being the opening day for the Red Sox, we are truly on our way to summer! Oh yes, and today is also April Fool’s Day. You did read the heading correctly, I would not kid around with you about this. In a stunning reversal of the pattern, longer range computer models are now hinting of a burst of summer like temperatures engulfing the eastern part of the U.S. starting possibly as early as next week!

Why the sudden change? Well the persistant Greenland Block that has been keeping us cold and stormy for the better part of two months is now showing signs of breaking down. What this means is that the jet stream will begin to lift north into Canada, allowing warm weather that has been building to our southwest to come pouring into the northeast. For folks searching for true springtime weather, this is the news that they have been waiting to hear!

It’s true. From what I am seeing, it may seem like we will be going from winter to summer, and skipping right over spring! After today, there will be a couple cold days coming for April this week making it feel more like winter again! However, after a unsettled weekend, the warm weather will start to build into the region starting next week. I could easily see 70’s and maybe even some 80’s coming our way! With this being said, I am expecting a warmer than normal April this year. As for rain, I believe we will have our dry stretches, but also some beneficial rains. Boston averages close to 4″ of rain during April. I expect us to be close to average this year with precipitation.

This warm weather will lead to a few things. First, you can expect the pollen season to kick into high gear. Next, you can expect green up to overwhelm the area, starting along the coast first, and rapidly spreading inland. Green up is when the grass begins to turn green, and everything begins to bloom. Next, you will begin to see people wearing flip flops and summer attire. There’s only one thing I don’t like more than flip flops, it’s when people wear flip flops in April! Maybe it’s just me, but I believe flip flops should be regulated for wear only at or within one mile of a beach, and only from Memorial Day to Labor Day. Don’t get me started with this silly excuse for foot attire! As far as I know, only my brother in law and myself feel the same way about this!

Now that we are pushing winter behind us, I think it’s time to review the past winter forecast. Despite getting off to a very slow start, winter snowfall certainly made its pesence felt during the second half of the season. As forecasted by yours truly, many areas received above normal amounts of snow this winter.  In fact, many areas received much more snow than typically expected. In addition, as forecasted back in November, the Boston area was hit by a Blizzard named Nemo in February. This turned into Boston’s 5th largest snowstorm on record with 24.9″ falling. This was followed by another massive nor’easter at the beginning of March which dumped 15 to 25″ of snow across the area. In addition, almost all ski resorts across New England made up from a dismal season last year with plenty of natural snow this year, and mostly comfortable temperatures.

Speaking of temperatures, this is where my forecast was a bit off. I was surprised by the persistant mild temperatures this winter. In fact, as a whole, the winter ended up to be a milder than normal winter across much of the region, despite the heavy amounts of snowfall. I thought it was going to be alot colder this winter. As it turned out, the cold weather arrived many times right when storms arrived. When the storms left, the cold weather retreated, melting the massive snow piles fairly quickly here in the city. Overall, it turned out to be a mild and very snowy winter throughout most of New England. It was a winter that pleased most, those who love snow, and those who don’t like bitterly cold temperatures!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to say to everyone: April Fool’s!! We actually have a blizzard on the way, and no warm weather in sight! Some 16 years ago to the date, this joke was really true! On this date back in 1997 a massive blizzard hit Boston that it is now famously known as the April Fool’s Blizzard of 1997. This was a paralyzing late season storm, that deposited 24 to 36″ of heavy wet snow in eastern Massachusetts, centered especially across the Boston Metropolitan area. The storm was acompanied by 60 mph wind gusts, power outages, and massive tree damage. In addition, during the height of the storm, there was several hours of thunder and lightning while snow fell at the rate of 3 to 4″ per hour! It was truly a historical storm here in Boston!

As for New England ski areas, unfortunately the end of the season is near. It was a tremendous season, but the seasons must move on. With this being said, many areas picked up a quick 4 to 6″ of snow last night! You can expect great spring skiing to continue this week, with colder temperatures, many areas will maintain a good base through this week. I will give this week a 8 out of 10, not bad for the first week of April! However, as we move towards the middle of April, warm weather will likely surge even into ski country, closing many resorts until next year. Some higher mountains may be able to maintain some base into May, we will have to see just how warm it gets, and how long it lasts for.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity spring forecast. Expect rapidly changing weather this week. I will rate it a 6 out of 10. Look for building clouds this afternoon, with a gusty wind developing. Watch for a quick downpour, with possibly even a rumble of thunder as a cold front approches this evening! Before this happens, temperatures will warm into the low 60’s! Watch for plunging temperatures and bitter cold wind chills for this time of the year overnight. Many areas will fall into the 30’s and low 30’s…brrrrr!!

Tuesday will have the feel of winter, with blustery conditions under partly sunny skies, high temperatures will barely crack 40. It will be another cold night tomorrow night, with many areas falling back into the 20’s. Expect similar weather for Wednesday and into Thursday morning under dry conditions. After that, look for a milder afternoon on Thursday, with temperatures rebounding close to 60 under mainly sunny skies!

Watch for increasing clouds on Friday, with highs reaching the low 50’s. As the block begins to retreat, there may be a quick hitting nor’easter type of a storm Friday night into early Saturday. This storm may bring a quick period of heavy rain and gusty winds along the coast. If it intensifies quick enough and tracks a little closer to the coast, there may be a quick flip to wet snow in some communities just inland from the coast. This is just a maybe, and will not turn out to be a late season snowstorm or anything like that. In fact, it maybe winters last gasp. We may be talking beach weather by next week!

As for the next weekend, look for skies to partially clear on Saturday, with windy conditions and highs manily in the 50’s. Sunday may turn unsettled all over again, with increasing clouds and perhaps a few showers. No washout is anticipated at this point for next weekend.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a more in depth forecast for the month of April. I will also have an update on the summer like weather on the way! In addition, I will have another segment of weather history for you. In the meantime, don’t put away those winter coats and gloves just yet. However, I will give you the all clear signal to put away the winter shovels and boots…and that is no joke!

Pete

Hints of spring?? 3/25/13

As I do every morning, I review the latest suite of computer models to see what’s happening in the world of weather. While doing this, I like to look at trends for the upcoming pattern. This is especially true as we enter a new season. If you are a regular reader of my blog, you know that I love to forecast long range weather patterns and possible storms. Lately, we have been stuck in a rather cold and stormy weather pattern. In fact, Worcester, Ma. has recorded their snowiest two month period of February and March in history, with 75″ of snow! In Boston, this was its third snowiest back to back month’s with 54″ of accumulation. It could of been even more in Boston, had a couple of the storms remained more snow than rain. This snowy second half of winter was well forecasted and should of come to no surprise for those who read my blog.

So what do today’s long range computer models show? Well first in the very short term, I am happy to report that we are actually going to just miss a major nor’easter today and tonight! Had this storm moved more north, northeast rather than east northeast, the Boston area would have been dealing with yet another heavy wet snowfall of at least 10 to 15″.

Getting back to the longer range, today’s computer models do show a slow improvement on the way. Please note, this does not mean time to break out the shorts and flip flops! As the season progresses, it mainly looks as if it will just become just a bit too mild to support additional snowfall. I cannot promise that we are completely done with the snow just yet. I don’t think we will be out of the woods until about the middle of April this year. The models are showing a relaxation to the strong blocking pattern that we’ve been in. This will allow temperatures to begin to warm up here in southern New England. For people who enjoy spring, and people who are itching to begin gardening, this is the news that they have been waiting for!

I still don’t want you to get your hopes up too high. If you notice, I did say the blocking pattern is going to relax, not completely go away. It still may be a very shaky start to April. The models do show some bursts of warmer weather coming, but also the possibility of chilly to cold weather, along with the chance of rain, or rain mixed with wet snow. During the first week of April is probably our best chance at a wet snowfall. If it does happen, it should not be significant, and it won’t last long. Of course if you live in northern New England, April can still be like March down here. A significant snowstorm is more likely to happen than not. Down here, I’m not expecting a 1997 April Fool’s surprise. Regardless of if it happens, it’s going to be a slow process going  from winter to spring this year.

Now for your spring timetable. Many areas in southern New England still have snow on the ground. In fact, there is quite a snowpack up north and in the mountains this year. By this time of the year, most of our snow is usually melted down here in southern New England. With that being said, March is generally still a winter month here in southern New England, this year being a good example. When the ocean starts to warm up in April, and the sun angle begins to increase, spring begins to show itself along the coast first, and slowly spreads inland and to the north during April. I am not a gardener, but I do know you can begin preperation for outside planting starting in April. For those who enjoy gardening, a local meteorologist named Dave Epstein has a nice blog about the weather and gardening. You can follow him on Twitter @growingwisdom.

If you live in the city of Boston, our average last date for frost is around April 15th. It’s about a month later for the suburbs. Remember, this is just an average, it can happen earlier, or later in any given year. About the same date, the grass begins to turn green, and trees begin to bud. Here in Boston, we run a six month cycle of mowing grass. On average, mowing begins on May 1st, and ends November 1st. Along with the grass, trees become fully foliated by May 10th. As far as plants go, I do know that crocuses are the first flowers to come up after a long winter. Next are the brilliant yellow forsythia to bloom in early April. As the weather warms, other flowers begin to bloom later in the month. I do remember my father planting the tomatoes in the ground around Memorial Day weekend.

Shifting gears again, reports are of excellent ski conditions continuing in much of New England. In fact, people were reporting nice conditions as close by as Blue Hills! This is due in large part to the recent heavy snowfalls, and unusually cold temperatures. Further up north, people reported the best March conditions in years! With chilly weather continuing this week, expect excellent conditions again! Like this past weekend there may be some additional light snowfalls to freshen up the slopes! I expect great spring coditions to continue well into April this year up north!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10 on the spring forecast scale. Expect increasing clouds today, with a freshening northeast wind developing. It will be cool and raw, with highs near 40. If you live on the south coast of New england, or the Cape, there will be rain changing to a period of wet snow tonight. I am expecting a wind driven 1 to 4″ of snow tonight across this area. Otherwise, there may be a few wet flakes or sprinkles here in Boston, nothing to the north. This storm will clear out of here by morning, so expect a decent day on Tuesday, with some sun and clouds, and highs in the 40’s.

 For the period of Wednesday through Saturday, you can expect variable and changeable weather conditions. Here in southern New England, we will have variable amounts of clouds along with some sun, with the chance of some wet snow showers and plain rain showers. No washouts or snowstorms are anticipated this week. It will be on the windy side, with highs mainly in the 40’s during the day, and 30’s overnight. The wind will make it feel colder than this. Up north and in the mountains, it will be more wintery, with cloudy weather and occasional snow showers from time to time. This will lead to some small accumulations in the mountains.

The good news I have today, is for those who celebrate Easter this Sunday. It looks like it will be turning at least partly sunny and milder! I can see temperatures possibly warming up into the mid 50’s by Sunday. There will be no travel issues for those planning on church services and visiting family.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my official forecast for the month of April. I will also talk about a storm which happened on April 1st 16 years ago in weather history. I know many parents and kids are anxiously waiting better weather to begin outdoor practice for baseball. I will have the latest forecast for you. In the meantime, I did see a Robin this morning, so you know spring can’t be too far away!           ~~~Have a safe and happy Easter!~~~

Pete