Winter storm warning! 3/18/13

Good morning to everyone! While stepping outdoors this morning, the look and sounds of spring were determined to lead me to believe that spring was here! I heard the friendly chirping and singing of spring birds surrounding me. The sun was bright and the angle was high. I thought to myself, yes, spring is just about here, and we can finally put away the snow shovels, boots and winter hats. Then I said to myself, it certainly doesn’t FEEL like spring, this feels like a mid-winter morning out here! With temperatures in the teens and twenties across New England, and a sharp north wind blowing, I knew Mother Nature had other plans in store for us!

Folks, what can I say? Spring will eventually come. The change of seasons is inevitable. We can not stop the tilt of the earth towards the spring equinox. In fact, the vernal equinox arrives on Wednesday, March 20th at 7:02 A.M. Not soon enough for many. I have a friend on Facebook that has been counting down the arrival time  to the exact second since back in February! On this date, the earth’s axis is tilted in equal distance from the sun. From this point forward, the axis of the earth continues to tilt towards the sun, increasing solar radiation and making our days longer. This continues until we reach the summer solstice, at that point we begin the long  journey back the other way, tilting away from the sun, and losing heat and daylight on a daily basis.

With all this being said, winter 2012-13 will not go down without a fight! In fact, there is a winter storm warning posted for much of New England, except the southeast, starting tonight and lasting into tomorrow night! As advertised, the second part of winter is hitting hard, and will continue to do so, possibly into the first part of April!

Eventually, the Greenland Block will break down, and spring weather will overwhelm New England. However, as is typical of spring patterns in New England, this will be a struggle this year. The way I look at it, better to have this type of persistant blocking pattern setting up in late winter, than in late spring. Sometimes, if a true winter pattern doesn’t show up during the winter months, they can show up later in spring and fowl up summer weather. So winter may linger into spring for a bit this year. Don’t forget, this was not the scenerio for the past 3  seasons, where spring arrived during wintertime, leading to unusually warm and sunny weather.

Getting back to the matter at hand. Yes, there is a significant late season winter storm arriving in many areas as early as tonight! As with many storms happening this time of year, this is yet another challenging forecast for many meteorologists. Just look what happened last week. I’m not saying 2 ft of snow is going to fall in the suburbs just to the southwest of Boston, however, this just shows you how unpredictable the weather can be this time of year. This storm, like many this winter, have been nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly how much snow is going to fall in any given location. There are too many variables that can happen. A slight shift in the wind or storm track can have huge implications on who’s going to get what.

Right now, I can tell you this. A storm will be developing off the mid-Atlantic region tonight. This storm will slowly move up the coast while intensifying. Being almost a spring storm, this storm will have alot of moistire to work with, as it bumps into the cold air anchored over New England. As the storm approaches, snow will break out across southern New England and quickly spread north. Snow will quickly begin to fall heavy at times into tomorrow morning. Tuesday mornings commute will be a treacherous experience, much like the one we had last Friday morning. The difference is that this time, the heavy snow will overspread much of northern New England, and will fall heavily at times throughout the day and even into the night. Meanwhile, along the coast, inside of Rt. 128 in Boston and up I95 to about Portsmouth N.H. the snow will mix with sleet and then eventually change to heavy rain before noon. As you move up into the Portsmouth N.H. area, things get very tricky. It may be a situation where it’s raining right along the water, but just a few miles inland could be heavy wet snow, and an icy mix in between. Further north and west from here, expect a heavy snowstorm all day for the bulk of New Hampshire and much of Maine.

Again, a small shift in the storm by 50 miles could bring this heavy snow line right into the city of Boston. In addition, the storm will be intensifying rapidly as it moves past Boston’s latitude. If it were to intensify a little quicker, say closer to Cape Cod, this would strengthen a northeast wind in Boston, dynamically cooling the air above us, and turning the rain back into wet snow during the afternoon…very tricky situation.

So what are we talking about for accumulations? If you live in Boston, I am expecting a quick shot of 4 to 6″ across the city first thing tomorrow morning, say 3 or 4″ in town, upwards to 5 or 6″ in the West Roxbury, western Brookline area.  Expect 2 to 5″ south of Boston towards the south shore. Closer to the 4″ or 5″ in the Norwood, Walpole Foxborough area, and closer to the 2″ to 3″ in the Marshfield, Scituate and Hull area. If you live on the Cape, you can expect  about an inch or two, before it changes to rain.

 If you live north of the Pike between Rt128 and I495 you should expect between 6 and 10″. Worcester should receive about 10″ of snow. North and west of I495 will receive the jackpot from this storm with anywhere from 12 to 18″ falling in most of New Hampshire and all of Maine. Expect a little less if you live right along the immediate coastline of New Hampshire and southern Maine, with amounts increasing rapidly if you live more than 5 miles inland from the coast.  Most of Maine is really going to get hit hard with this storm.

Needless to say, this will be another bonanza for many ski resorts in northern New England, with many areas receiving 12 to 20″ of new snow.  I will rate the conditions a solid 10 out of 10 going into this weekend. With all of the new snow and pleasant temperatures coming up into the weekend, spring skiing will not get any better than this!

Now for your weekly winter forecast. Expect a wintery looking day today, with increasing clouds throughout the day. It will be totally cloudy by evening. It will be chilly today, with highs only in the 30’s. Watch for snow to overspread the region from west to east overnight, arriving in Boston between 10 and midnight, it will be cold with lows in the 20’s.

Look for rapidly accumulating heavy snow early tomorrow morning until around 9 or 10 A.M. with difficult driving conditions. Precipitation may lighten up for a time and change to sleet and rain in the city and points south. The rain may mix with and change back to some snow in Boston during the late afternoon, possibly making for another messy evening commute with falling temperatures. As you move north and west of Rt 128, and especially I495 expect similar conditions, with heavy snow in the morning, lightening up for a bit, only to get heavy again in the afternoon, continueing into the evening.

Don’t expect much springlike weather for the first day of spring on Wednesday. It will be mostly cloudy, windy and cold, with highs mainly in the 30’s. In fact, another storm may move up the coast on Thursday, possibly lashing eastern New England with strong winds and more wet snow. I will update the blog if this storm becomes a more serious threat to the region. After that, expect cold weather to continue into tis weekend, with all spring plans put on hold. It should be mostly dry, except some additional snow showers up north, highs will generally be in the 30’s and low 40’s. This is a good 10 to 15 degrees below average for the date. Look for unprecedented winter conditions to most likely to continue for the rest of the month, possibly making this one of the coldest and snowiest Marches since 1996.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog I will again attempt to feature my spring outlook and timetable for New England. If this winter like cold and snow were to continue, it may just go from winter to summer this year! I will also continue to post another ski forecast. I will also let you know when we might expect springlike weather to finally show up. In the meantime, be careful driving tomorrow across New England! Wherever you live, you will encounter some type of wintery driving conditions in the last winter storm of the season…until we call them spring storms! Be safe!

Pete

False spring alert!! 3/11/13

Living here in New England, coming out of winter can be like walking through a minefield. At the end of last week, much of eastern Massachusetts was hammered by a powerful slow moving late season nor’easter, dumping a solid 1 to 2 feet of windblown snow across the area. In fact, at the top of Blue Hill, nearly 30″ of snow fell!  What was once feared to be a storm with heavy wet snow, causing massive power outages and tree damage, turned into a cold storm with northerly gales, and rapidly accumulating powdery snow. Looking at the meteorology, it was a unprecedented, defying typical outcomes for this type of a storm.

Looking back at this time last week, computer models were showing a major event taking place. The problem is, many meteorologists could not believe that this amount of moisture could be transported into New England from a storm that would pass close to 600 miles out to sea!

 So what happened? First, we have to remember where we live. I know it’s cliche, but I believe New England has a climate like no other in the world! There are endless solutions how storms can be generated around here. As posted in previous blogs, we are in a pattern that promotes nor’easters and snow. Second, the Greenland Block is in firm control for the foreseeable future. The block forces storms to our south, many times developing them into nor’easters, with northeast gales and heavy snow in the winter along the coast.

Yes, the block forced the storm to pass well out to sea, normally with minimum effects here in New England. However, it also slowed it down, and alowed it to grow larger. Once it stalled, it waited for the spark to blow this thing up into a massive nor’easter. This spark was a shortwave (a piece of atmospheric spin/energy) diving into the trough off the east coast. Once this piece of energy merged with the storm, it rapidly intensified the storm. As the storm intensified, it dumbbelled the whole storm to retrograde and move westward towards New England. With the high pressure area to our north supplying the cold air, once the moisture reached our area, it fell in the form of snow…and alot of it!! I have only seen this type of pattern in the winter leading to a storm two other times in my life!

Moving on now, we look to the future. Last night, I decided to stir some things up a bit and posted something on Facebook that seem to have struck a nerve with folks. I harmlessly spoke about the stark difference in weather from last March to this March. If you recall, it was so warm last March, there were actually many people who went to the beach last year around St. Patrick’s Day! There was a full week where temperatures were solidly in the mid 80’s, with clear blue skies! It was truly unprecedented!!

So it should come to no surprise to many folks, that for this year, we may be dealing with yet another major nor’easter with high winds and heavy snows! Yes, I know it may be hard to believe, but one of the most reliable computer models, the European,  is showing this type of event happening about a week from now. It is a week away, so many things can change, but given the pattern that we are in, it’s not so far fetched! When I mentioned this possibility last night on Facebook, people were, how can I put this…less than thrilled with that prediction.

On a more serious note, for people who have beachfront property, this is the last thing that they want to hear. After a winter of several intense nor’easter’s starting with Sandy, another storm may just be the knockout blow to an already devastated coastline.

This is shaping up to be a classic New England spring. No, this does not mean trees blooming in March, people going to the beach around St. Patrick’s Day, or mowing the lawns before Easter. I like to look at it as one step forward, two steps back. Yes, we have a couple mild days coming up this week. Perhaps you may actually think that spring is really here. You want to believe it, you’re sure of it. The snow will be melting, the birds will be singing, the sun will feel warm.

Well, I’m here to tell you otherwise. We will take one baby step this week, then take two huge steps back later in the week and towards next week. This is more typical of a New England spring. It took a long time for the ocean to finally cool off over the winter. Because of latent heating and cooling, our coldest ocean temperatures does not occur until this time of the year around here! This mutes springtime weather from reaching eastern New England so quickly. A perfect example of this was yesterday. While it was 70 degrees in Pittsburgh, PA. yesterday, it was only in the upper 30’s around Boston!

Now for your weekly ski forecast. With the heavy snow of last week, great ski conditions seem to be a lock for the rest of the month, especially in northern areas. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. It would be a 10 out of 10, but I am expecting a slug of rain to move through New England on Tuesday. Thereafter, colder weather will return along with snow squalls with some accumualtions. Conditions will improve even more as we move towards next weekend with more snowfall possible!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. Yes, I am still saying winter, because tecnically, it still is! This week’s severity index is a 6 out of 10. Look for a milder weather for your Moday afternoon, with a mix of sun and clouds, with clouds winning out later this afternoon. It will be milder with highs near 50. It will be a little cooler the closer you are to the ocean, and a little warmer inland, by 10 miles or so. Nevertheless, there will be melting snow. Overnight expect it to be a little milder than recent nights, with lows mainly staying above freezing in most areas.

For Tuesday, bring your umbrella and raincoats. It will be cloudy, with a band of rain moving into the area during the afternoon. In addition, it will be even milder, with highs reaching into the mid 50’s. After some areas of heavier rain moving through  Tuesday evening, expect some leftover light rain and fog later at night, with lots of continued snow melt. In fact, when you wake up Wednesday morning, nearly 75% of the snow may be gone!

For the period of Wednesday through Friday, expect colder weather, with partly sunny skies. The air will be unstable, so there will be a chance of some showers of rain or snow, depending on your elevation. It won’t be a storm, just a bit unsettled from time to time. Temperatures will range from the lower 40’s on Wednesday, cooling to the upper 30’s on Thursday and Friday, with lows mainly in the 20’s. 

Right now, it looks like a small storm may move through the area over the weekend. Look for mainly some light rain, possibly mixed with some snow overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning here in southern New England. However, as you travel further up north, more snow will fall, with light accumulations possible. It will be chilly, with highs mainly in the 30’s. Looking further ahead, as stated earlier, there is a possiblity of yet another major storm at the beginning of next week. If conditions warrant, I will update the blog sometime over the weekend.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your spring outlook. Since we are still in a very wintery pattern, I have decided to delay this outlook until when spring officially arrives, next week. I will also let you know if I see any signs of this pattern breaking down to allow some real spring weather to arrive! In the meantime,  regardless of what New England weather does, rest assured Mother Nature will eventually have the last say with the change of the seasons! 

~~~~~~~Happy St. Patrick’s Day!~~~~~~~

Pete

Significant storm to batter the coast…3/6/13

A significant long duration ocean storm will impact eastern Massachusetts starting tonight and lasting well into the day Friday. Main aspects of this storm will be significant beach erosion, along with the possibility of moderate coastal flooding in vulnerable coastal areas. In addition, heavy wet snow combined with strong winds will likely result in scattered power outages across the area. Since this is more like a spring storm rather than a late winter storm, snowfall will vary greatly from town to town. Generally speaking, if you live within 2 miles of the ocean, you can expect between 2 and 4” of snow. As you head inland amounts will increase rapidly.

I expect the most snow to fall across interior southeastern Massachusetts, such as the Foxboro, northern Rhode Island area, where up to a foot of heavy wet snow may fall. In Boston, if you live near the water, not so much. However, as you move inland across the city amounts will increase rapidly upwards to 6 to 8” in the West Roxbury/Brookline area, and up to 10” out towards Walpole. The good news is after the storm leaves, temperatures will rebound to near 50 degrees this weekend!

Needless to say, the computer models are still at odds with this storm, so I have taken a blend of the two, and hope for the best. At this point, I can honestly see anything from nothing at all accumulating, to a damaging heavy wet snowstorm of over 12″ with power outages. I will update this blog if I see any major changes for the worse.

Pete

Eyeing a midweek storm…3/4/13

In life, there is drama. Whether it’s drama in a sporting event, natural disaster, or a personal relationship… there’s drama. In the weather community there’s drama as well! In fact, there has been quite a bit of drama this winter with the computer models meteorologists use, including weather enthusiasts such as myself, in helping us forecast the weather. This winter, in particular, has seen more than one “standoff” between the U.S. generated models, and the European, or foreign models. So far, the Eropean model, also known as the ECMWF, have edged out the U.S. GFS (Global Forecast System) model. This is due in large part with the amazing forecast it scored with the intense blizzard which struck New England back at the beginning of February. While the European model had the storm pegged a week in advance, the GFS did not have a clue until within 48 hours of the event, and even then had to play catch up with the other models right up until the day of the storm. If we only had that model to base our forecasts on, the blizzard could have had much more devastating effects across the region.

It’s amazing how far meteorology as a science has progressed. They have made fascinating discoveries on how to forecast the weather. In fact, it has gotten so good, that many forecast outlets, including NOAA, Accuweather, WeatherBell, and all of the smaller bloggers and media outlets, can sniff out an impending storm up to 10 days out! This causes alot of drama and hype to build over the period before the storm even develops! Add social media outlets such as Twitter and Facebook, and this type of information spreads like wildfire all across the globe within seconds! This type of information may become annoying to some, but very valuable to others. Sometimes the information overload, for big events such as the blizzard, is warranted. The problem arises when “smaller” events get blown way out of proportion, sending people into mass hysteria!

Now for today’s “Day’s of Our Lives” episode.  As with the theme of the whole winter, we have a battle brewing. So with this episode, we have the U.S. GFS model going for a serious nor’easter to batter eastern Massachusetts starting late Wednesday, and lasting into Friday morning. Earlier, this looked to be only a mid-Atlantic problem. However, a sudden shift in the model yesterday raised some eyebrows. Today, this shift was supposed to shift the storm back south, in line with the more superior Euro model. However, the last run of the GFS and some other of its members, have actually made the storm more intense, lashing eastern Mass. with a severe nor’easter, with hurricane force wind gusts, coastal flooding, and damaging heavy wet snow. This falls in line with the type of storm I envisioned for the beginning of March.

So what does the European model have to say about this type of scenerio. The new model run actually doesn’t come out until about 2 pm. However, up until this point, it had no such storm whatsoever hitting New England! Most of the storm would hit the mid-Atlantic region, with the bulk of it moving harmlessly out to sea. This puts meteorologists and weather bloggers such as myself in a stressful situation. Obviously, something has to give…and soon! We are within 48 hours of possibly a very dangerous storm hitting eastern New England! Local management officials, coastal flooding warnings, utility companies need some time to organize a plan to be prepared for a storm such as this!

So what do I think is going to happen? Looking at the latest guidance, each camp has been stubborn with their solutions. Both have not deviated from their tracks. Since my winter forecasts posted in November, I have always said the worst of winter will be felt during February and March. I base alot of my long term forecasts on past trends. Make no mistake about it, March can be a very stormy month here in New England. What happened last year was a complete anomoly. We have not had any snow accumulations in March here in Boston for nearly three years. In other words, we are overdue for a significant snowstorm here in March.

Is it going to be this week? As much as I want to believe the GFS model, you have to trust the European more. Due to past performances. For this reason, at this point, I don’t see the severe storm the GFS shows striking us midweek. However, I will take a compromise between the two models, and have the storm come close enough to give us a glancing blow, but not a direct hit. If the European begins to trend closer to New England with this afternoon’s run, then I may have to revise my thinking. I will update this post if conditions warrant. As posted before, this is going to be a colder and stormier March, so if this one misses, there will be other opportunities to receive heavy snow this month.

Now for your weekly ski forecast. Ski conditions could not get any better for ski resorts across most of New England! The heavy rain we received last week, fell as 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow up in the northern mountains! This resulted in another rating of 10 out of 10 for this week again! Watch for comfortable temperatures this week, with the chance for some light snow showers mid-week and again towards the end of the week and over next weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of  10 on the severity scale. Watch for building clouds this afternoon, with a chance of sprinkles and flurries devloping this afternoon. It will be a bit on the breezy and cool side, with highs within a couple degrees of 40. Expect these light showers to continue into the first part of tonight, with clearing skies later. It will turn a bit colder, with lows mainly in the 20’s.

Look for mostly sunny skies, along with a few clouds on Tuesday, it will be a bit on the windy side, adding to the chill in the air. High temperatures will be mainly in the upper 30’s. If you are walking in the sun, it may feel alot warmer than that. Expect mostly fair conditions Tuesday night, with some increasing clouds late at night, temperatures will fall into the 20’s and low 30’s.

Watch for increasing northeast winds on Wednesday, with a chance of some mixed rain and snow showers developing, highs will be in the upper 30’s. It may turn stormy for a time Wednesday night and most of Thursday, with gale force northeast winds along the coast, and periods of wet snow. Remember, this is not the worse case scenerio. Right now, you can expect perhaps up to 1 to 3″ of  wet snow, some minor coastal flooding, and scattered power outages, but the brunt of this storm should just barely miss us out at sea.

Conditions should slowly improve on Friday, with winds slowly relaxing and some sun possibly by afternoon. Right now, next weekend looks a bit milder, with temperatures possibly flirting with 50 on Saturday. There may be some scattered showers at some point on Sunday, but a washout is not anticipated at this point.

Well that’s about it for now! Remember, this is going to be a serious storm, if the track moves closer to us in future model runs, I will surely update this blog! In next week’s blog, I will have your spring outlook, and also your weekly forecast. In the meantime, I will keep an eye on the storm, so you can have less drama in your life!

Pete

Winter to persist…2/25/13

Good morning to all! For those who had snow yesterday and last night, it was a sight to behold this morning. With the late winter’s sun glistening off of the freshly fallen snow, it was truly a winter wonderland! True, not everyone got the accumulation that I had forecasted last in Friday night’s update, but boy, were we so close here in the Boston area of receiving a good 10 to 15″ of heavy wet snow. Many areas in southern New Hampshire and Maine did receive this amount of snow. In the end, it was only a matter of a degree or two that made the difference. Many professional meteorologists even had a tough time with this storms eratic path, non-predictable thermal profiles, and heavier precipitation than originally thought. Remember last week, they were calling for a major storm. Then they called that off. In the end, the storm did come close enough to hit us hard. It was the slightly warmer air that came in off of the ocean that spared the city a heavy snowstorm. Had that not happen at the last second, there would of been alot of explaining to do this morning! In reality, Mother Nature has the final word in situations like this, whether we like it or not!

Moving on this morning. I have some good news and some bad news for you. The good news is that the first day of meteorologic spring arrives this week on March 1st! Remember, with the meteorologic calender, the seasons are broken up into 4 quarters. Spring consists of the three months of March, April and May. Summer is June, July and August, ect.. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Mother Nature will be cooperating with that system this year! So the bad news is, I see no sign of springtime weather for New England at least until the official start of spring, which isn’t until March 20th…and even that may be wishful thinking. Of course, this should come as no surprise to us who have lived here in New England. We have been spoiled the last few springs, with warm weather coming early. Last spring was unprecedented, with a week of mid to upper 80’s during March and April. In fact, temperatures averaged some 6 degrees above normal last spring, prompting premature blossoms of trees and flowers across the region.

So with March 1st coming up at the end of this week, what are my thoughts for the weather patterns this month? Going with the title of the blog, expect winter to persist well into March this year. That does not mean that we will not have any nice weather! It will be March after all, the sun is getting higher in the sky, and there will be some mild weather from time to time. March is a very fickle month, with winter trying to hold on, while the warmth of spring pushes northward by the minute. This creates volatile patterns across the country. One day can feature warm, sunny weather, only to be followed by a winter storm the next!

I base alot of my long range forecasts by trends. I can tell you this, we are due for a major snowstorm in New England this year in March. Boston typically averages 8″ of snow in March, so it can be a very wintery month. We have not had any acuumulations greater than 1″ the past two Marches. Looking at the long range computer models, the jet stream coming into the country will be surpressed south for the foreseeable future. This is in large part due to the Greenland Block developing in the North Atlantic. If this block sets up in the right area, and we get a storm to develop south of New England, we could be looking at another blockbuster storm hitting New England next month. As it is, I am expecting above normal snow across most areas, and colder than normal weather for the balance of March.

Speaking of storms, back in 1969 Boston experienced one of its greatest snowfalls on record. From the period of Febraury 24th to the 28th, Boston had a storm that was known as the 100 hour storm. It actually snowed in Boston for four straight days! In the end, Logan airport accumulated 26.3″ of snow, however that was only part of the story. Many surrounding areas had prolific accumulations of heavy wet snow to the tune of 30 to 50″. In fact, there was close to 40″ on Boston’s north shore and at the Great Blue Hill in Milton, Ma.! Further north, some areas in New Hampshire and Maine had an astonishing 96″ of snow!

Now for your weekly ski report. I am happy to report excellent ski conditions to continue across most of New England this week. With all of the recent fresh snowfalls, I will rate this week another 10 out of 10! This week will feature more snow arriving. In northern ski resorts, expect periods of heavy snow and not that cold weather starting on Wednesday through Friday. In southern areas, there will be some rain on Wednesday. As colder air gradually works back into the region, even these areas will transition back to some periods of snow. Look for some of the best conditions of the winter going into next weekend!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. Expect it to be unsettled this week, with the severity index a 4 out of 10. After yesterday’s snow, look for today to feature partly sunny skies and milder temperatures. It will be like a March day, with highs mainly in the 40’s.

It will be clear and chilly tonight, watch for the full “Snow” moon tonight! Tuesday will be another tranquil day, with sun foloowed by afternoon clouds, high temperatures will mainly be near 40. As a storm system approaches, there will be a period of snow, sleet and rain tomorrow night and first thing Wednesday. The further north and west of Boston you live, you can expect a longer period of wintery precipitation on Wednesday, with treacherous traveling likely. In Boston and along the coast, this wintery mix will turn to rain, and fall heavily at times during the day. In the northern mountains, this will be a heavy snowstorm, with significant accumulations likely.

Later in the week, the forecast becomes iffy. There are some indications that there may be another storm developing south of New England sometime Thursday. If that happens, unsettled conditions may persist later Thursday and into Friday, with rain and wet snow mixed along the coast, and wet snow inland, and especially higher elevations. By inland, I am talking north and west of I495. With blocking to our north, this system has to be watched closely for further development. If it looks more serious, I will update the forecast for you on Wednesday. If all goes well, this system will clear the coast so that by next weekend, we may have  have sunnier and drier weather across much of New England.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have the review for February. I will also let you know if I see any signs of that storm I am expecting in March anytime soon. I will also have a general spring outlook for those interested! In the meantime, be prepared for just about anything this week! You may need each and every one of these items in no particular order at some point or another this week: umbrella, boots, snow shovel, raincoat, snow blower, ice scraper, generator, snow tires and ice melt. In other words, a typical week of winter weather here in New England!

Pete

Snowy Sunday on the way…2/22/13

After reviewing the latest guidance, I would like to give everyone a quick update on what I think will happen over the weekend in regards to a possible storm. I know there has been alot of forecasts out there of possibly a major storm striking New England over the weekend. And for the most part for good reason. Up until a couple hours ago, computer models still were showing a fairly intense storm hitting the area for Saturday night and into Sunday with a heavy wet snowstorm. Unlike the blizzard a couple weeks ago, this storm would be warmer, and have a rain/snow line that was bisecting the city of Boston from north to south, giving meteorologists big headaches on how much snow would fall.

Well as it turns out, most of the latest computer models have trended further south and east with this storm at the last second, possibly sparing us a potentially very disruptive storm. I say disruptive because many models were  printing out 1 to 2″ of liquid precipitation. Using the 10 to 1″ ratio, this would equate to 10 to possibly as much as 20″ of heavy wet snow across the area. Snow this heavy, would cause great hardship with clean up, and also bring down tress and power lines. This is probably the last thing snow weary New Englander’s wanted in light of the massive blizzard which struck the Boston area hard earlier in the month.

With all this being said, I do want you to notice that I did say “most” computer models squashed the storm, not all. I also said that we may “possibly” be spared a very disruptive storm. As in typical New England style, there’s more to the story than meets the eye. To say this has been a very complex set of circumstances to forecast is an understatement. Even the professional meteorologists are scratching their heads with this one.  As I said earlier, most computer models are pushing the bulk of the storm out to sea.

 However, there is one model which is the European, still shows a different scenerio which may deliver our snow to New England after all. This model has also been the most consistant and reliable throughout the winter so far. It also was the model that predicted the blizzard a week in advance. Like I said, this is a complicated scenerio, so with the help of the model, this is how I believe it will play out across the region. One thing I do want to make clear, this will not be a repeat of the blizzard earlier in the month. But I do want to make sure to tell people that we do have a snowy Sunday on the way, and may cause disruption in travel in many areas.

So here’s the set up. The idea was a storm in the midwest was to transfer its energy to a storm coming up the coast to form one coastal storm for Sunday. It now appears as if these two entities will remain seperate. However, we have a block developing in the atmosphere, which will slow down that storm from exiting too quickly. In the meantime, the upper level energy from the storm in the midwest will be moving through New England. This, in conjunction with a high pressure area situated to our northeast in the Canadian Maritimes will act as a convergence of different air masses over eastern New England. With light winds coming in from the east,  colliding with a upper air flow from the south, this will cause precipitation to fall across the area. In addition, if you look at the European model, I also believe it does pull some moisture out of the storm moving out to sea to our south. Sometimes this is also called an inverted trough of low pressure. Where these airmasses converge, and if the temperatures are cold enough, prolific amounts of snow can still fall!  I am sure there will be some surprises before the weekend is through!

Now for your weekend forecast. A winter storm watch is still posted for a good majority of eastern New England for tomorrow night and Sunday. Expect quiet conditions overnight, with increasing clouds, lows will mainly be in the 20’s and lower 30’s. Watch for cloudy and chilly weather for your Saturday, there may be some light mixed precipitation breaking out across the area during the afternoon, this should not slow you down out there.

During Saturday night, expect the light mixed precipitation to continue. If you are north and west of Boston, this may be falling as light snow. In the city and along the coast it should be a mix of rain and snow and should not accumulate on the roads. As stated earlier, I am expecting a snowy day on Sunday.  Any mixed precipitation should change over to wet snow in the Boston area, and fall steadily throughout the day and into the night.  Temperatures will be marginal, so expect it to accumulate mainly on cars and the existing snowpack. If you live inside of Rt 128, especially in the city of Boston, you should expect 5 to 8″ of snow to fall. South of Boston, where temperatures will be a little warmer, expect 3 to 6″ to fall. North and west of Boston, snow may fall heavier, and accumulate faster, where I believe you may receive 6 to 10″.

This goes the same up into southern New Hampshire, where some areas may receive up to 1 foot of heavy wet snow. It’s not out of the question that some areas, in isolated heavy bands, accumulate 20″ in this type of situation. Expect the snow to wind down first thing Moday morning, ending last along the coast.

As I have stated in earlier blogs, we are not through with winter. In fact, as early as the end of next week, which will be the beginning of March, I am expecting possibly another blockbuster storm to hit New England, with heavy snow, and strong winds. We will be in a very cold and stormy weather pattern possibly until the spring equinox arrives. As always, I appreciate you checking in with my blog, and appreciate your feedback. I will update this forecast if conditions warrant over the weekend. Have a great weekend!

Pete

Winds of Winter…2/18/13

Happy President’s Day! If you are not a big fan of snow, consider yourself very lucky that you are not digging yourself out from another 20 to 30″ of snow this morning! Yesterday, eastern New England came within 100 miles of getting blasted again with another ferocious blizzard. As large as last weekend’s storm was, the storm that “brushed” us yesterday, was an even more intense storm! Even if the massive amounts of snow did not fall, you could feel it with the fierce storm force winds that swept through eastern New England during the day and last night.

In fact, several coastal communities did experience a true blizzard yesterday. Remember, a blizzard is defined by sustained winds either at or over 35 mph, with visibilities at or below 1/4 mile for at least three hours. The massive storm, that developed an eye like feature, pummeled Nova Scotia last night, and now is doing the same in Newfoundland, Canada.

So you say Pete, we’ve had a couple storms now, time for spring, right? Not so fast! As I said last week, Mother Nature still has some pay back to do from nearly two years of above normal warmth and dry conditions. True, it may not turn into the armageddon scenerio portrayed in last week’s blog, however, I do believe we still are under the gun for snow, perhaps even one more blockbuster at the beginning of March.

I was chatting with a good friend of mine last night and this is the way he summarized winter 2012-13: To quote him, “winter 2013 is a second half player. We’re good for 2 more big storms. March used to be a “sleeper” month, I expect some March Madness this year.” I couldn’t of put it better myself. What started out as another snowless winter, has now become a winter which may challenge records before all is said and done. In fact, thanks to the blizzard, and other recent snows, Boston is now running about a foot above average for this time of the year!

True, as quick as the storms came, they can also stop without notice. However, according to some extended outlook guidance, stormy weather looks to be in the cards for much of New England until possibly the spring equinox. In fact, the NAO, also known as the the Greenland Block or North Atlantic Oscilation, has turned into its negative phase recently. Remember, when the NAO  is negative, it forces storms to redevelop south of New England, and locks the cold air in along the coast.

 This is one of the ingredients to deliver strong nor’easter’s and heavy snows here in eastern New England. What happens is high pressure builds over Greenland, forcing the jet stream and cold air to move south into New England. The block doesn’t allow storms to escape into the North Atlantic quickly, and can produce prolific storms along the coast. This along with a strong Pacicific jet cutting underneath of the block, is a recipe for more snowstorms for New England.

Last week, I mentioned I may give a sneak peek at what the spring may be like for those who are interested. To be honest, it still is a bit early to predict. However, I can give you an insight at what I am thinking. Right now, computer models are all over the place at what the spring might be like. One thing is for sure, I am not expecting another repeat performance of last spring. If you recall, people were going to the beach in the middle of March, and it was in the 90’s on Marathon Monday.

Although computer models are forecasting  another warm spring for the middle of the country, things are looking more murky here in New England. That same block that has developed in Greenland, may tend to linger well into the spring, keeping us more on the chilly and wet side. This is not a a forecast yet, but this is how I am leaning at this point. I am not expecting it to average 8 to 10 degrees above normal with trees blooming in March this year. I will have my spring forecast during the first week of March. As mentioned above, I am expecting another blockbuster snowstorm at the beginning of March this year…so be prepared!

With President’s Day being today, and school’s on vacation this week, it’s a great time to for the family to go buy a car! No, just kidding there! It’s prime time for skiing in New England! I am happy to say, that every location is open for great skiing conditions all across New England! I will rate this week a 10 out of 10 again! After today’s bitter cold wind chills, expect things to warm up a bit for a couple days. Watch for snow to move into the northern resorts tomorrow afternoon and into the night. This small storm will freshen up the slopes with 3 to 5 ” of new snow. It will turn windy and colder again for Wednesday and Thursday, only to moderate again by Friday. There may be more light snow this weekend. The good news is, I believe ski country will benefit well this March with frequent late season snowfalls, extending this year well into April!

Now for our local outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10 on the severity index. Look for sparkling sunshine glaring off of the freshly fallen snow. It will be cold today, with a biting wind at times. Highs will reach near freezing, but wind chills will hold make it feel like the teens. Winds will relax overnight, and temperatures will fall into the teens and twenties most areas, as clouds begin to increase.

Watch for a rapid rise in the temperatures to the low 40’s tomorrow, with a period of rain developing in the late afternoon. Up north, this rain will be snow, with 3 to 5′ falling across the area. Expect the rain to end overnight Tuesday, with clearing to follow. Wednesday through Friday look to be dry at this point, with colder temperatures and a wind to boot at times. Expect temperatures to mainly be in the 30’s.

Right now, expect some precipitation next weekend. It doesn’t look like a big storm at this point, just some inclement weather. Temperature profiles look like it will be cold enough to support snow across much of New Hampshire and interior Massachusetts, with a wintery mix along the coast. If a coastal storm gets going on Sunday, this may enhance the precipitation and turn it to wet snow even along the coast. If conditions warrant, I will update the blog.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be giving you an update on when I expect the next big storm will strike. I will also talk about weather history, and a historic storm that hit us back in 1969. I will also have your updated ski forecast for next week! In the meantime, have no fear, in about a month from now, you will be able to call the winds of winter, the winds of spring! Sounds alot better, right?

Pete

Armageddon scenerio?…2/11/13

The Blizzard of 2013 will go into the historical weather record books as one of the most fierce winter storms to strike the region possibly since the Great Blizzard of 1978. Looking back within my lifetime, I would rank this #2 since the 78′ storm…that’s impressive. Studying New England’s winters from years past, I understand there have been other storms, even more intense. However, keep in mid that I am saying within my lifetime, which only goes back to about the middle 70’s when I began to remember these winter storms.

I still believe that the Blizzard of 1978 was the worst storm to strike Boston, within the past 100 years. I was looking over the landscape with my brother as we dug out from the blizzard on Saturday, and I told him,  if you added another foot of snow on top of what we got, then you would have the amounts that fell in 78′. In addition, Boston gusted to 76 mph during the past storm once, in 78′ we had frequent gusts over hurricane force strength, drifiting the snow to 15′!! We also had 4 major high tides to suffer through with all of the coastal devastation, compared to one with this storm.

Don’t get me wrong, this was a severe storm that struck the Boston area. I believe this was the first time that we have hit hurricane force winds in Boston in about 15 years! The 24.9″ of snow was also the first time the city went over 2 ft in a storm since the President’s Day storm back in 2003, and only the eighth time it has eclipsed the 2 ft mark in over a hundred years of record keeping.

Other areas hit hard by the storm included Boston’s south shore, where Quincy had 30″ of snow, eclipsing there accumulation from the Blizzard of 78′. Further down the coast, the snow was wetter, clinging to trees and power lines, resulting in massive power outages along the coast from Hull, through Marshfield and Scituate, down through Plymouth. At one point, 78% of people down the Cape were without power. Heavy wet snow driven by hurricane force winds plastered the Cape, toppling trees, and knocking out power to thousands.

To the north, Concord N.H. recorded their 2nd biggest snowfall in history with 22″. Portland, Maine along the coast measured their largest snowfall in recorded history at 31.9″! These amounts, basically 25 to35″ were common, running through Connecticut, right up through Maine.

So with the blizzard behind us, we should expect an early spring to arrive here in New England…right??? Not so fast!! Mother Nature still has some payback to do for all of the warm, dry times we have had for the better part of two years now! As hard as it is to believe, looking over the latest computer models, there are two possibly even three more possible storms to affect New England over the next two weeks! Right now, computer models are all over the place with their solutions. Once again, the European model and the American models are in a duel as to who has the most accurate solutions. As you recall, the Euro model was king for the last blizzard, as the American model just didn’t have the right idea. This time, the American GFS model is showing another massive storm to strike New England this weekend. The Euro model, not so much. It’s possible the Euro will trend to the GFS, or vice verca as the week goes on…we shall see! There is also another sneaky storm showing up on some of the models happening  around Valentine’s Day, depositing a quick 4 to 8″ of snow across much of the area.

Many would argue, this is New England, it snows around here. True, but if one, or bite my tongue both of these solutions verify, the city of Boston better get ready for an armageddon scenerio. We have had enough issues around here with the 25 to 30″ of snow that fell. Imagine if we get another major storm or two on top of this? The National Gaurd will have to be called in to start removing snow from the city. Homes will be buried in the surrounding communities, and the elderly will need to be rescued. Businesses will be forced to shut down until sidewalks and streets have been cleared.

Looking back in history, we have had back to back storms in Boston, sometimes even three in a row! However, in many cases, there have been thaws, or major rainstorms to knock the snowpack down until more snow came. We do have a mini thaw today, but after that, it’s back to colder weather and the threat of more storms.

The fact of the matter, the city is getting more congested. There are more people living here, businesses and peoples lives are stressed out more than ever to keep up certain income levels and revenues. People say, there’s no room for an unprecedented event from Mother Nature! Could it possibly go this far? Could we go from the least snowiest winter to the most in one year? I say yes!! Mother Nature does not care about all of that nonsense! She is in control here, and if it disrupts our lives, tough luck! From what I am looking at, I say get ready for a battle. Our patience, and our backs are going to be tested by one of the greatest teachers of all!

Before I get to the forecast, I just wanted to let you know that ski country also benefited from the blizzard, with many areas receiving one to two feet of snow. This week the rating will be a 10 out of 10! Expect great ski condtions to continue, with more natural snow today, then again on Thursday. All in all, it also won’t be that cold, with temperaures mainly in the 20’s and 30’s. Of course southern areas are all smiles, with the 25 to 35′ of snow falling across many locations, skiing couldn’t be any better, right in our own backyards!

Now for you weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. The severity index is a 3 out of 10 this week. Not that cold, but a couple of more threats of stormy weather. After an icy start, look for the rest of your Monday to feature some light rain this afternoon, with temperatures rising into the 40’s. There will not be enough rain to cause any flooding issues. Watch for skies to become partly cloudy overnight, with lows dropping into the 20’s to lower 30’s across most of the area. Be careful of some icy spots tomorrow morning, otherwise look for a mixture of sun and clouds with more gentle meltiing going on, highs will be near 40. It will turn a little colder tomorrow night, with a bit more of a hard freeze, lows will be in the teens and twenties. Wednesday will start off sunny, but watch for increasing clouds during the day, highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 30’s, with a few spots hitting 40.

 The forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday looks tricky. A couple of computer models are showing a moderate size snowstorm hitting the Boston area with 4 to 8″ of snow, especially during the morning. Other models say no. Going with the trend, I say to expect snow to develop late Wednesday night continuing through the first part of Thursday. It will be a wet snow, clinging to everything. Right now, I will take a blend of the models, and call for a 3 to 6″ snowfall across a good part of the area. If this changes I will update this blog. Expect fair weather to return for Friday, with temps. near 40 once again.

 As for this weekend, you will need to check back with me again, as I am sure the forecast will be changing. However, it does appear as if a chunk of energy and arctic air will be digging down towards the mid-atlantic coast. From there, it may combine forces with another area of low pressure and intensify rapidly into another east coast blizzard (sound familiar?) This is not a lock, as only a couple of models are showing this. In fact, the European is showing a much weaker scenerio, with some snow, but not a huge storm. The American GFS model is showing the armageddon scenerio. We all know who had the right solution with the last storm! So we shall see. If this scenerio looks more likely, I will keep you updated for sure! You can also follow me on Twitter @hrapplianceman! 

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor the new stormy pattern that we are in! I may also offer to those who look forward to spring, a sneak peek into what we might expect for weather for one of our shortest seasons.  In the meantime, for the upcoming patter, all I can say is , expect the worse, and pray for the best!  We can’t do anything about anyway! That way your covered both ways! ****Stay tuned for updates*****

Pete

Blockbuster storm imminent…2/7/13

We are now within 24 hours of a blockbuster storm beginning here in eastern Massachusetts. I have carefully reviewed the latest computer guidance and would like to give everyone an idea on what I think will happen over the next two days around here. Not to downplay this storm, but I would like to come right out and dispel some rumors I’m hearing going around out there. First, it’s not going to snow 40 to 50″ of snow in Boston. Next, this is not going to be the Blizzard of 1978. The Blizzard of 78′ was possibly a once in a lifetime event. Not that it can’t happen again, but the players on field are not the same with this storm, as compared to back then. With that being said, snowfall amounts may turn prolific in some areas with this storm, so we need to keep an eye on how this plays out.

So what are the qualifications that make a storm a “blockbuster”? Well, this is subject to interpretation, but I believe it is a winter storm where accumulations are greater than 18″ within a 24 hour period, along with high winds, and significant blowing and drifting snow. From everything I am seeing, this not only will be a blockbuster storm, but will turn into a blizzard for much of our area Friday night into the first part of Saturday.

So when does a blockbuster turn into a blizzard? This happens when sustained winds exceed 35 mph or greater for a period of 3 hours or greater, and visibilty is reduced to a 1/4 mile or less in falling or blowing snow. This criteria will be met in this storm during Friday night and the first part of Saturday, especially in eastern Massachusetts and the Cape.

The ingredients are coming together for a historical storm affecting the much of Massachusetts. To get a blizzard, you must have arctic air. This is arriving today courtesy of an arctic high pressure area over Quebec. Next is a energetic Alberta Clipper type of storm associated with the northern jet stream. Third, is a storm associated with the southern jet stream in the Gulf of Mexico. When these three elements combine south of New England on Friday, it’s going to be like an atomic bomb exploding in the atmosphere. In fact, the term meteorologists use for this is “bombogenisis” or a rapidly intensifying low pressure area. This combined with the arctic high pressure area to the north, will feed the storm a source of arctic air and to tighten the pressure gradient between the high to our north, and low to our south. This will create the strong winds along the coast.

Before I get to the nitty griddy of the forecast, I did want to talk a little about the storm itself. It has been a difficult week of forecasting, especially for the professional meteorologists following this storm. Yes, I forecasted the storm in my blog back on Monday, and even have been forecasting a blizzard for February since my winter forecast back in November. But how we got there is nothing short of an adventure. For the whole winter so far, computer models have been very fickle in their predictions so far this winter. Even up until today, there is still not 100% agreement on the final outcome of this storm. This is where the professional meteorologists must use his/her skills to interpret what is going to happen. I can see how some people were saying that Boston is going to get 50″ of snow. One computer model was actually printing up to 5″ of precipitation falling into very cold air. Since one inch of water equals to about 10″ of snow, that could produce up to 50″ of snow! Other models, have trended the storm further out to sea, sparing us a severe blizzard. However, the one computer model that has been consistant since last Sunday, has been the European computer model. This model has not deviated much over the course of the week, showing southern New England, especially eastern areas, are going to be hit with quite a snowstorm. Remember, it was the European model that latched on to the severity of  Hurricane Sandy days in advance, so the model has presidence.

 There are many aspects to this storm to go over. First, I do believe that this storm will become a top 5 storm here in Boston. Second, there will be coastal flooding at the time of high tide. Third, this will turn into a blizzard, with gale to storm force winds along the coast, and snow rates of up to three inches per hour. In fact, there may be a period of hurricane force wind on the Cape later Friday night and into Saturday morning.

Now onto the forecast. Consider today the calm before the storm. You will notice increasing clouds throughout the day, with the sun completely being blotted out by the end of the day. It will be colder, with highs mainly in the 20’s. Watch for light snow to begin anytime after 10 tonight. It won’t be heavy, but there may be enough to cause some slick roads. Expect many schools to cancel classes or have early dismisals tomorrow. Overall, it won’t be too bad of a day. During the day however, snow will become steadier and heavier, with increasing northeast winds. By the evening commute, 2 or 3 inches may have already accumulated, with some tough driving. Once you get home tomorrow evening, you should plan on staying there for the night. After 7, expect blizzard conditions to move into the area, with heavy snow falling at the rate of 1 to 3 inches per hour. With the storm intensifying so rapidily, there may even be some thunderstorms along with the heavy snow falling! In addition winds will be increasing to 30 to 50 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph. On the cape, expect a wicked storm, with hurricane force winds, and very heavy wet snow, which will knock out power to thousands. In our area, expect a more powdery snow, accumulating rapidly throughout the night. The blizzard will continue into at least midday on Saturday. If the storm slows down and stalls for a bit, we could be looking at record breaking snow amounts closing in on 30″ in some areas! Right now I am calling for close to to 2 ft of snow to fall across most of our area, with drifts up to 5 ft. Expect the storm to slowly wind down later in the day on Saturday, and we will all be digging out on Sunday under partly sunny skies, and a less harsh afternoon. Don’t let your gaurd down, this may be the beginning of an epic run of winter weather here in New England, more storms and cold may be coming for the rest of February into March!

If things change, and I am sure there will be some surprises, I will update this blog or post updates on my Twitter feed, where you can follow me @hrapplianceman, or on Facebook. In the meantime, be prepared to hunker down for a good old fashioned New England blizzard, one that may make the record books!   *****Be safe*****

Pete

It’s prime time for a storm! 2/4/13

Historically speaking, if Boston were to get a major snowstorm, February is the month for it to happen. Oh yes, we have gotten major snowstorms in other months, some even in April, but February is the month when one is most likely to happen. Boston’s biggest blizzard happened on February 6th, 1978. I will talk more about this storm in weather history a bit later in the blog. Boston also had a storm of epic proportions back in February of 1969, when it snowed some 30 to 40″ across the region for 100 hours straight in Boston!

Before that storm, there was also another major blizzard dubbed the “Lindsay Storm.” It was called this storm because this was the name for the mayor of New York Cityat the time, who refused to send out the plows even as the snow piled up outside his window, as the forecast had called for mainly rain. When people awoke the next morning to find 20 to 30″ of heavy wet snow had fallen, the mayor would forever be  linked to Mother Nature’s political wrath. This was also a major storm for eastern Massachusetts with 15 to 25″ of snow falling.

So what makes February such a snowy month? Basically, this is the month when all of the best meteorological conditions come together best to produce a major snowstorm. For one, ocean temperatures off of our coast finally start to reach their coldest temperatures of the year. This allows colder airmasses to begin to settle into coastal New England. This, when combined with increasing solar warmth to our south, sets up the best clash of airmasses to produce large moisture laden storms. During this time of year, North Atlantic Blocking, also known as the “Greenland Block,” tends to develop most frequently during the second half of winter and early spring. This “block” tends to force storms to develop south of New England, locking in cold air along the coast. When this happens, major nor’easters can develop,  with high winds and heavy coastal snows. Occasionally, these storms can stall, resulting in prolific snow amounts along the coast. Recently, we have not had any sustained blocking in Greenland for all of last year and most of this year…so far.

So what about this February? Is there a chance for a major winter storm? I would say yes, there’s always a chance. So far, this has been a winter of small dustings and light accumulations. There was only one heavy snowfall which occured on December 29th. Like many storms this winter, the heaviest fell across the interior, with 6 to 12″ falling. For many, including myself, it has been a very frustrating winter, with many storms either changing to rain, or developing too far out in the ocean to hit us. Another aspect to this winter has been the long stretches of dry, quiet weather, with nothing happening at all. I pointed this out in my winter forecast back in November that I was concerned about the lack of precipitation events during the fall. So far, we have accumulated less than 10″ of snow at Logan airport this winter, well below our average.

Looking at the long range forecast, it looks like things may finally become more interesting this month. Despite some mild periods, I believe February will actually average a bit colder than normal. I also believe high latitude blocking will be more present the second half of the month, leading to a couple major snowstorms, perhaps one of those storms even being a blizzard. This should make February a snowier than normal month. Boston typically averages around 12″ of snow in February. I know I am going against the trend of a snowless winter, but I truly believe we are going to get nailed with at least one good storm…we are due! Even as early as the end of this week, the European computer model has been forecasting a major nor’easter coming up the coast. So far, none of the other models have this scenerio. However, the Euro has had this storm on their last four runs in a row, so it may be on to something. I will talk more about this in my forecast.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to talk about a storm that happened 35 years ago. Coming up on Wednesday, it will be the 35 year anniversary of the Great February Blizzard of 1978. I could write a whole book about this storm, so I will be brief. As stated earlier, this was Boston’s largest blizzard last century. Across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, an amazing 30 to 50″ of snow fell. This snow was accompanied by hurricane force winds for two days, whipping the snow up into 15 to ft drifts. In addition, coastal destruction was severe, with Scituate, Hull, Winthrop and Revere just some of the coastal towns suffering through multiple high tides cycles with severe coastal flooding and destruction of homes. Further inland, hundreds of cars and trucks were stranded along Rt 128, where 17  people lost their lives. This storm was, and still is, the benchmark to measure all winter storms here in Boston to this day. Though some have challenged, none have been able to match all of the levels of severity which the blizzard brought.

Now for your weekly ski forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. Much better than last week, with no thaws anticipated. The big question is whether ski country is going to get blasted later in the week with a heavy snowstorm? It will definitely be colder, with snowmaking going full strength all week. Even if the big storm doesn’t come, I do believe there will be a nice snowfall, coming through with the northern branch of the jet stream, resulting in a fresh snowfall before the weekend. If the two jet streams phase up, we could be looking at a storm that would not allow you to drive up to ski country until perhaps later Saturday!

Now for you weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10 on the severity index. The lower the numer the more severe the weather. Look for sunshine mixed with some passing clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will be chilly, with highs only in the upper 20’s and very low 30’s. Expect clear and cold weather tonight, with lows mainly in the teens.

Tuesday will feature sunshine, followed by afternoon increasing high clouds. It will continue to be chilly, with highs near freezing. Watch for another chance of a dusting to perhaps up to 1″ of snow Wednesday morning, otherwise expect the sun to come back out later, with a brisk wind.

The forecast becomes murky for later in the week. As stated earlier, one reliable computer model has been projecting a large nor’easter to move up the coast, belting especially interior New England with a heavy snowstorm and high winds on Friday. If this were to happen, you could expect 1 to 2 ft of snow on Friday mainly north and west of Interstate 495, with high winds. Much less snow would fall inside of Rt 128 with the snow changing to heavy rain for a time in the city of Boston. However, the rain could change to snow during the storm, resulting in a very treacherous evening commute. Other computer models have no such storm on the map. Regardless of waht happens, it looks to clear out and be windy and cold for the upcoming weekend. Because this is such a changeable situation, I will have an update on this blog on Wednesday…so stay tuned!

Well that’s about it for now. I will be going on a short trip next weekend into Monday. I am going to Ottawa, Canada for their winter carnival!  Hopefully I will see some snow! I will try to write a blog, but if I don’t get a chance, I will write one when I get back. In my next blog, I will focus in on our chances for any major snow events and the staus of our snowless winter so far. I will also have your weekly ski report. In the meantime, it’s  time to see if the groundhog is actually on to something predicting an early spring.  I say he’s going to be off the mark this year!     *****Thanks for reading*****

Pete