Rapid weather changes this week…1/28/13

If you have lived in New England for any length of time, you have surely have heard the phrase from Mark Twain, “if you don’t like the weather, just wait a minute, and it will change.” This week, New England will live up to its reputation, delivering a taste of all four seasons at some point or another. I will go over all of the rapid changes coming up in my forecast at the end of this blog.

After a lackluster winter so far, the changes coming up this week will be a welcome change for a weather enthusiast such as myself. It’s not just me, many professional meteorologists are also itching for a good storm or two. Heck, even people who don’t typically care for snow have been asking if it’s ever going to snow again! In fact, it’s been nearly two years now since we’ve had a meaningful snowfall in Boston. I was shocked to find out last week that Boston’s Logan airport has actually had less snow this year, up to this point, than what we had last year at the same time! This is a little misleading, however, as this official measurement is taken at the airport itself.  Areas just inland from the airport have actually had two or three decent snowfalls this winter. Still, it goes to show you just what kind of muted effect a warmer than normal Atlantic Ocean can have on coastal areas during the winter.

Despite the last week being consistantly below freezing in Boston, this January will undoubtedly end up being yet another winter month averaging above normal temperatures. The first two thirds of the month averaged nearly 6 degrees above normal! Once again, this proves my theory of thunder in October means a warm January. If you look back at my winter forecast put out in November, I did forecast a warmer than normal January. I base this theory due to a tremendous amount of convective energy in the atmosphere. Somehow, this has some correlation with the weather during January. I have kept track of this data, and it is true more often than not. Last October, we had two severe thunderstorms cross Boston, and the results in January speak for itself!

In addition to the warm temperatures, it has also been a very dry month. This continues the trend of abnormally dry weather we’ve been experiencing since about November of 2011! Even with today’s small snow event, January will end up below average again for snowfall, typically, Boston receives about 14″ of snow in January. It’s not just Boston, many areas of New England have had less than normal amounts of precipitation and snowfall this month.

With all this being said, I also said that the second half of the winter is going to be worse than the first half. I suspected the warm ocean temperatures woul temper the climate along the coast, and delay the arrival of winter. Looking over the latest long range charts, it does appear to me that February may be our snowiest month of the winter. We may not get up to the amounts I had originally forecasted, but I do believe we may be in for at least one major snowstorm. I’m also still holding out hope for a blizzard to occur at some point in February.

It’s not like it hasn’t happened in the past. If it’s going to snow, February is the month for it to happen. This is when ocean temperatures fall to their coldest levels, and source regions for cold air reach their maximum minimum. In addition, warm weather building from the southern latitudes begin to build. When these two sources clash, major storms can happen. Boston’s famed Blizzard of 1978 occurred on February 6th. That was Boston’s largest winter storm last century.

Now for your weekly ski forecast. Expect rapidly changing conditions this week up in ski country. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. After the brief thaw, expect icy conditions for a time on Thursday, until snow making can resume later in the day. The best days for skiing would be today and tomorrow, with some natural snow falling and pleasant temperatures. A brief blast of warm weather and some soaking downpors will visit the north country on Wednesday. This will be followed by plummeting temperatures on Thursday and into the weekend. Starting this weekend and beyond, there will be several episodes of light to moderate snowfalls, along with colder than normal temperatures. So conditions will begin to rapidly improve from Friday on, extending well into february.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. This week’s severity index is also a 6 out of 10. Expect wintery weather early, then again later in the week. Expect a springtime blast midweek! For the rest of today, snow will be rapidly spreading across the area from west to east, with temperatures near freezing. Expect a slow evening commute, with snow falling, and slippery roads. This will not be a big storm, but the timing will hit right at rush hour. I am expecting generally 1 to 3 inches of snow across the area. Expect the 3″ to be closer to the New Hampshire border, and the 1″ closer to the south coast. Boston should receive about 2″ of snow out of this. Look for the snow to continue well into the evening, then it will flip to some freezing drizzle later, lows will hover around 32.

Watch for some icy areas tomorrow morning in Boston, with some freezing drizzle falling, and temperatures near freezing. This situation will diminish during the day as temperatures warm to near 40 by the end of the day. Across inland areas, north and west of Rt 128, temperatures may struggle to rise above 32 degrees, so watch out for icy areas! Look for warming temperatures overnight Tuesday, with lows remaining in the 40’s.

Wednesday will be a spring preview! Expect gusty southerly winds, driving temperatures to near 60 degrees! There will be heavy rain showers and possibly even a thunderstorm approaching from the west later in the day and at night. Look for all of this to clear the coast early Thursday. It will be windy and turning colder for the rest of your Thursday, with temperatures falling through the 40’s into the 30’s by nightfall. 

Winter will be back full force on Friday into the weekend, with temperatures mainly in the 20’s and lower 30’s. In addition, there may be a period of snow later Saturday into Sunday morning. Don’t forget Saturday is  Groundhog’s Day! For what it’s worth, I believe the little rodent will see his shadow for six more week’s of winter! If this system turns into anything more significant, I will update the blog later this week. Thereafter, there may be other opportunities for snow during the first week of February…so stay tuned!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know whether we have any chance of a significant snowstorm coming soon. I will also have a segment of weather history talking about the 35 year anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1978. In the meantime, have your shovels, spring  jackets, umbrellas, boots, and winter coats ready!  We will need to pull out need all of the artillery to keep up with all of the changes New England weather has in store for us this week!

Pete

Snowy & colder this week…1/21/13

Happy Martin Luther King Day to everyone! This may come as a bit of a shock to some, but not only is the weather going to be colder this week, but there is also two chances for snow! Yes, here in the last third of January, we may actually get some wintery weather here in southern New England! In normal winters, this shouldn’t be a surprise to nobody. Typically, we get sub-freezing temperatures, along with frequent snowfalls, sometimes even a blizzard here in January. However, the past two winters have been anything but typical around here. So far, this winter has been a little colder and snowier than last winter…that’s not saying much, considering last winter was the warmest and driest on record here in Boston. Thankfully, it has been a winter much closer to normal up in ski country, where they have had temperatures closer to normal, with just about normal snowfall so far.

So what does the rest of January look like? Well after an unusually warm first two thirds of the month, it appears as if more typical winter weather will be settling into southern New England for a change. It’s amazing the resistance winter had coming into eastern Massachusetts had this year. I have said it before, but I believe the abnormally warm Atlantic Ocean to our east had alot to do with it. With that being said, winter is still far from over, it’s still only January after all! In fact, starting with this week, I see many chances for colder weather along with a fair amount of snow. I have seen many winters here in New England start as late as February and linger into April!

Expect colder than normal weather for the rest of this month. This will balance out some of the absurd departures so far for this month. However, when all is said and done, I don’t believe the cold will be strong enough to erase this departure, thus the month will likely finish as another above normal month once again. As for storms, it looks like we have a much more active pattern setting up. If the storms coincide with the colder weather, we may have the chance for a couple snowstorms before we end the month. In addition, I still believe we have a shot at a blizzard the first part of February this year. Two of these chances are coming up this week. I will have the details for this potential coming up in my forecast. 

Speaking of storms, I did want to mention a historic storm we had in weather history. This was one of my top five storms in my lifetime. In fact, for folks on the Cape, this was the worst blizzard to strike the region in possibly 50 years. The storm struck on January 22nd, 2005. That January, was very similar to this one, with well above normal temperatures and very little precipitation to talk about. That all changed in a hurry, as bitter cold arctic air was building across southern Quebec, always a precurser for a major snow event for southern New England. The morning of the storm found dense, arctic air, with temperatures hovering around zero degrees even at Logan airport. With the strong high pressure anchored to the north of New England, winds began to shift into the northeast. When this happened, light snow began to break out along the coast due to the cold air passing over the warm Atlantic Ocean. While all this was happening, a strong bundle of atmospheric energy was diving towards the mid-atlantic region. When this bundle of energy hit the ocean south of New England, it quickly developed into an intense blizzard. With blocking to our north, the blizzard rapidly intensifyed off the southern New England coast. Gale force winds, along with blinding bands of snow lashed eastern New England through the night and well into the following day. In fact, true blizzard conditions continued throughout the entire next day on Boston’s south shore and especially down to the Cape with hurricane force wind gusts!  When all was said and done, some 2 to 3 feet of snow fell in coastal eastern Mass., with drifts of up to 10 feet down on the Cape. Some spots, such as Plymouth and Sandwich, Ma. recorded 38″ of snow! This was a vicious storm, especially for the Cape, and will not be forgotten.

Now for your ski forecast. No blizzards this week, however, ski areas have been receiving frequent snowfalls of late, and bitter cold weather will ensure snowmaking and powdery condtions lasting well into February. Most of ski country will miss the first system tonight. Later in the week, everyone may share in natural snow, with southern areas possibly receiving the most. This should set up for a very nice weekend for skiing! However, it will be very cold, so bundle up! Overall, I would give this week a 8 out of 10 for ski conditions up north, mostly pack powder conditions.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. This will be the most wintery week of the winter so far. This week will be rated a 4 out of 10 on the severity index. Expect thickening and lowering clouds for the rest of your Monday. Snow will be breaking out across the area towards evening. It will be colder, with highs mainly in the 20’s. Watch for a snowy night, with several inches of light powdery snow accumulating in and around the city. If you live along the immediate coastline, especially along the north shore, enhanced bands of snow may deposit up to 8″ of light fluffy snow. A few isolated areas may actually receive up to a foot of snow. This is due to a convergence of winds setting up across this area.

Needless to say, Tuesday mornings commute may start off with delays. Otherwise, the snow will taper off and end by late morning on Tuesday, with some sunny breaks developing during the afternoon. Highs will mainly be in the 20’s. For Wednesday and Thursday, expect bitter cold weather, with highs mainly in the teens, and lows ranging from 5 below zero to 5 above.

Watch for clouds to rapidly increase later Thursday night, with snow developing during Friday. Expect a slow commute Friday evening, with snow falling, and cold temperatures. Right now, I am expecting a moderate snowstorm across the area, with 3 to 6″ of snow. If we get into some of the heavier precipitation bands, we may get up to 8″. Look for this storm to move out by midday Saturday, with windy and cold weather to follow through Sunday. Also watch for the full moon on Sunday night glistening across the freshly fallen snow!

 In next week’s blog, I will be monitoring the weather charts for any potential of significant winter storms and bitter cold. i will also have a preview of what we can expect for February this year, where is the time going? In the meantime, keep the brooms handy for tonight’s snowfall, and possibly the shovels ready for Friday as winter settles in..at least for this week! ~~~Thank you for reading!~~~

Pete

Warm now…then colder! 1/14/13

It took its old sweet time getting here, but the much anticipated Juanuary thaw finally has arrived in full force today. As is typical, the warm weather that areas further to our south have been enjoying, struggled to push into New England over the weekend. However,when you stepped out of the house this morning, you would of thought we skipped right to mid April, it is that warm out! Later in the blog, I will let you know just how much longer we can expect these springlike temperatures to continue.

A very strong temperature inversion sent record warm temperatures to many of New England’s highest mountain tops this weekend, with many areas reporting temperatures well up into the 50’s! Meanwhile, lower elevations struggled to reach the 40’s. This happens from time to time. What happens is that the warm air is lighter and less dense than cold air, so it floods the upper levels of the atmosphere first. This is normal. However, what isn’t normal is when you climb a mountain thinking it’s going to be colder at the top, when in realty it’s warmer! This is called a temperature inversion!

Many friends and family have been putting the pressure on me lately, asking me if winter is ever going to come back to the Boston area again! Not that they want winter to come, they’re just curious about the unusual weather patterns we’ve been having, and rightfully so. This has been a most unusual stretch of weather. In fact, if you hadn’t heard the news yet, 2012 turned out to be the warmest year in recorded weather history here in Boston! And it wasn’t just Boston, there were many locations across the northeastern part of the country with similar results. There could be many reasons for the unprecedented warmth. One of them, in my opinion, is NOT gobal warming!

True, the climate is changing, it’s always changing, sometimes within a few years! As mentioned in previous blogs, we are in a warm cycle in the Atlantic Ocean which is adversely affecting our temperatures. The Atlantic is a good 10 degrees above average this winter, which has definitely made the first part of this winter on the milder side here along the coast. If you look at global temperatures, New England sticks out like a sore thumb, with deep red departures signifying warmer than normal temperatures.

Globally, however, it’s a different story. Europe, Asia, even the dessert southwest of the U.S. have had  much colder than usual weather, along with freak snowstorms. Did anyone hear about the record 8″ of snow that fell in Jeruselum last week? Or the record cold temperatures in California this week? It also snowed in Athens Greece last week! Also, record amounts of ice have been building up in the Antarctic! The point is, even though it is warm now, a change in the pattern can send us into the ice box at any time! If you enjoy mild winters and warm temperatures, we are living a charmed life here in New England!

So how much longer can we expect this regime to last? Despite the warm start to winter, I still believe we have a much more wintery pattern in store for us for the second part of this winter. The incredible cold weather that has been building in Canada all winter is finally going to start oozing into New England over the next couple of weeks. This, in conjunction with a abnormally warm ocean, may be the breeding ground for a strong winter storm to or two to hit New England. So what once may have been our friend in keeping us warm, may end up actually helping fuel a major winter storm to bury us with snow! In summary, the worst of winter still lies ahead, say for about the next 2 months or so.

Now for your weekly ski report. As expected, the thaw has virtually wiped out the snow cover here in southern New England. Up north, the temperature inversion helped preserve some of the snow. Even though warmer condtions flooded the higher elevations, it wasn’t catastrophic, and was not accompanied by soaking rains. The good news is that the thaw is just about over! Expect colder weather to start filtering back into the area this week. Other than a few periods of light snow and snow showers, it doesn’t look like any major snowstorms coming this week. It will be cold enough for snowmaking to resume at night. Because of some freeze thaw cycles, I would rate this week a 6 out of 10, possibly rising to a 7 out of 10 by this weekend.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I wiill rate this week a 6 out of 10 for the severity factor, some winter weather returning, but nothing we can’t handle for January standards. Look for increasing sunshine for the rest of your Monday. It will be unseasonably warm, with highs in the mid to upper 50’s! Watch for increasing clouds overnight, as it starts to turn a little colder, lows will mainly be in the 20’s and 30’s.

Tuesday looks like it will be a mostly cloudy day. It will be colder, with highs manily in the lower 40’s. It should be mainly dry, but I can’t rule out some light rain or sprinkles for areas mainly south of Boston. Watch for possibly some clearing overnight on Tuesday, with temperatures falling mainly into the 20’s and lower 30’s. Expect clouds to rapidly increase again on Wednesday.

There will be another low pressure wave moving south of the area during the day. If it comes close enough, it may bring a mixture of some rain and wet snow to the area. At this point it doesn’t look like a big storm, but a small accumulation can not be ruled out around Boston, especially away from the ocean. This storm system will move out by Thursday, with seasonable temperatures returning.

At this point, Friday through Sunday look dry. Temperatures will be mainly in the 30’s and 40’s for Friday and Saturday. It may turn colder on Sunday, with sun followed by increasing clouds. Right now the AFC Championship game down at Foxborough between the Patriots and Ravens looks to be on the cold & dry side, with temperatures mainly in the upper 20’s…Go Patriots!! Shortly thereafter, there may be a succession of light to moderate snowfalls the following week. Any one of these systems will need to be watched for rapid intensification off of the coast, resulting in heavier accumulations.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your mid winter update. I will review the first part of winter, and look more in depth to the second part of winter, and let you know if there are any major storms coming to be concerned about. I will also have a new ski forecast. I will also talk about a current weather event that will make news over the next week. In the meantime, today may be a good day to remove any Christmas lights or decorations leftover from Christmas. Otherwise, they may be up til the spring! ***GO PATRIOTS!!***

Pete

January thaw…then what? 1/7/13

Weather, like many things in life, can be looked at in relative terms. There are many, especially those who live near the ocean up and down the I95 corridor, who are asking, winter hasn’t even started yet, and a thaw is coming?  However, for those who live inland, away from the ocean, things have been different. Across the interior, I’m not going to say winter has been severe, however as advertised, it has been more wintery than last year. As I said last week, we havn’t received record snows or anything, but it has been just cold enough at the ski resorts for any precipitation to fall as snow. In some cases, some areas have received a good amount of snow. All in all, I would say it has been just about a normal winter so far across the interior of New England.

So what about folks who live inside of I95? I understand the frustration, and I do see exactly what is going on. So far, winter has not lived up to the hype. Keep in mind, this winter was not forecasted to be of record proportions. It was forecasted to be much more wintery than last year, and I did forecast above normal snowfall. Well, to say it’s been disappointing so far, is an understatement. Areas from Boston’s Logan airport all the way down the I95 corridor have yet to receive appreciable snow. Of course, just inland from these locations, there has been a couple moderate snowfalls. Even as close as the western side of Boston’s city limits has seen much more snow this winter than at the airport. Now with a thaw coming, what snow did fall, is going to wiped away to bare ground again.

So why so little snow along the coast? Well, for one, you can blame the large body of water next to us called the Atlantic Ocean. Right now, the Atlantic is in it’s warm phase, also called the AMO, or the Atlantic Mecadecadel Oscilation. The Atlantic is running a good 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal right off of our coastline. For the beginning of our winter, I underestimated the power of the warmer ocean to mute the severity of winter weather arriving. It wasn’t just me, I believe this caught even the professional meteorologists off gaurd as well.

I did mention this in my winter forecast that I believed the second half of winter was going to be more severe than the first part. I do understand the role of the ocean plays in the first half of our winters. The ocean takes longer to cool off than the land, also called latent heating and cooling. This is why our winters extend into our springs many times, and our summers extend into our autumns longer than other places across the interior.

So do I think the winter forecast was a bust, and that winter is over? Not at all!  Just as the reasons stated above, I believe the second half of this winter is going to be much worse than the first half. Because of the slow start, areas right along the coast may not reach the exact amount of snow I forecasted, but I believe it will make a run for the money! As the season matures, the ocean will cool enough to allow more significant winter storms to affect areas inside of the I95 corridor. I will tell you this, because the ocean has been so warmer than normal, by the time the temperatures cools off just enough for it to snow, it may fuel a nor’easter to be more intense than a typical storm, as it feeds off of the warm water.  In fact, I am still expecting a blizzard to strike sometime between January 20th and February 20th…so be prepared!

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to talk a little bit about the January thaw. In normal winters, we have winter weather starting around Thanksgiving time, and continues until the middle of January or so. At that point, it has been documented that the winter pattern tends to relax, allowing jet stream winds from the south to bring warmer air up into higher latidudes such as New England. The thaw usually lasts for about 3 to 5 days. In some severe winters, we don’t even get a thaw. Last year, we never even had a winter, and the thaw was permanent!  While all this is happening, winter is reloading for its encore performance, usually ending the thaw with a wintery type of a storm. This year, expect a typical  thaw up north, with a few mild days, to perhaps one or two warm days, followed by more arctic air next week. In southern New England, where winter has not been as pronounced, expect even warmer weather, with some temperatures possibly close to 60 on Sunday!

Now for your ski forecast. While it has been chilly and dry here in southern New England, it has been cold to very cold up north, with frequent fresh snowfalls covering the slopes. As long as the resorts make it through this week into the weekend, I do believe the rest of the season will feature excellent ski conditions. Yes, it’s going to warm up at the resorts this week, there may even be a period of rain sometime on Saturday, then again on Monday. At this point, I am not expecting a nuclear meltdown for the mountains. After that, cold weather and frequent snowfalls will be the norm up north for the second half of January through most of February the way I see it. Before the rain, this week will feature plenty of pleasant days of skiing, with plenty of natural snow, and comfortable temperatures.

Now for you weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. Because of the thaw, the winter severity index is higher this week, I will rate it an 8 out of 10…not much winter weather this week. Watch for partly sunny skies for the rest of your Monady, it will be turning cooler this afternoon, with highs mainly in the mid 30’s. Expect clear and typically cold weather tonight, with lows in the teens and twenties.

Tuseday and Wednesday will feature more sun than clouds with moderating temperatures up into the 40’s to perhaps near 50 in some areas. There will be a temporary cool down come Thursday into Friday, with highs in the lower 40’s, which is still above average! It should be mainly dry both days.

As a storm races to our west on Saturday, there may be some wet weather moving through, with highs in the 40’s. Right now, Sunday looks to be mainly a dry day, with warm southwesterly winds, and temperatures possibly reaching into record warmth territory, with highs in the lower 60’s!! It should be a great day for tailgaters and fans alike at the Patriots playoff game at Gillette stadium. Go Patriots!!!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will begin to focus on what the second half of January may bring us. I will also be on the look out for our first significant snowstorm of the winter for folks living along the coast. I will also have your ski and winter activity forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the January thaw coming up this week, as the second half of winters bite may be worse than the bark this time!

Pete

2012: Year in review…12/31/12

Happy New Year! Since today falls on New Year’s Eve, I decided to post on the the weather we had for 2012. This year, thanks in part to the record warm winter we had last year, and the very warm to hot summer, will go down as one of, if not the warmest year on record across many spots here in New England. With that being said, we ended the year with a quick hitting but intense nor’easter this past Friday night, one of only two snowstorms to strike the Boston area this whole year!

Because the Atlantic Ocean is running way above normal temperatures, these storms were tempered right along the waters edge. In fact, if you live along the water and right near Logan airport, you might be wondering what storms are you talking about? The first snow happened early in November, with some 3 to 6″ of heavy wet snow falling just away from the water. Right at the water, only a few tenths of an inch fell, including only 4 tenths of an inch at Logan airport. Just the other night, a similar thing happened, with only 2.3″ falling at Logan, where neighborhoods on the western side of the city recieved up to 6″, and up to 10 to 12″ a bit further inland from there! Needless to say, it was a winter wonderland when many people woke up Sunday morning!

When we look back at 2012, the records will show that it was a very warm year. As was the theme last winter, the temperatures actually got warmer as the winter deepened! Relative to the averages, January was milder than normal, but not excessively so. In fact, we managed to squeek out about 6″ of snow that month. However, things were just heating up, as they say. For the period February through April, Boston and much of New England for that matter, averaged between 6 and 8 degrees above average. We even had a stretch in March with temperatures in the mid 80’s for a whole week! People were going to the beach and just plain enjoying the unreal weather. With temperaures like this, there was no winter to speak of. In fact it ranked as the second least amount of snow in Boston, with only 9.3″ falling! It was also one of the driest and warmest winters on record.

Because spring was so warm last year, I will lump the spring and summer season into one. For the period of March through July, much of New England continued to experience much above normal temperatures, with the hottest weather coming in July. One would think the temperatures would of been off the chart by July, but it turned out to be just a warmer than normal month. It was hot, but nothing like they were experiencing in the midwest. Here was the epicenter of the heat, with many cities experiencing many days with highs in the triple digits!

Starting in August, there was a change to the pattern. Many areas that experienced record heat, were now experiencing record cold! Here in New England, things cooled off a bit as well, but only to normal temperatures, so we continued to enjoy very pleasant summer weather. September and October bounced back, with warmer than normal weather returning to New England. October ended with Hurricane Sandy slamming into the New Jersey coastline. This storm flooded New England with tropical like weather and  thunderstorms drenching the area. The month ended on a chilly note around Halloween.

November continued the up and down temperature patterns, with many days averaging below average. In fact, it was the first real below average temperatures, in some 18 months in many locations! Other than an early season nor’easter mentioned above, it was a very dry and tranquil month, including a fine stretch of weather around Thanksgiving.

The trend would of thought a continuation of colder weather for December. Actually, December reversed again, ending up to be a very warm month across the eastern half of the nation, including New England. Northern New England turned cold at just the right time, for some heavy snowfalls to bury the ski resorts. We did have a significant storm the day after Christmas. This was a classic interior New England snowstorm, where many areas north and west of the I95 corridor received upwards of a foot of snow, with some mountain areas getting 2 feet! If it wasn’t for a last second storm at the very end of the month, Boston’s Logan airport would of had another nearly snowless December. Of course, most of New England had a perfectly timed dusting of snow  right on Christmas morning, making alot of people happy! Overall, December ended up warmer than normal and below average snow here in Boston.

So now we are about to enter a new year. Will the warmer than normal trend from last year carry over? Well if you look at the weather for the first week of the new year, I would say no! January will start out on a much colder but dryer side. Typically, Boston averages about 14″ of snow this month. Some January’s can be wicked, with a whole seasons worth of snow falling. This is also Boston’s coldest month, with bitter cold temperatures and wind chills. This January is going to be tough to call. I believe after a cold dry start, it will turn milder for a time during the middle of the month. People may begin start to think that we dodged another winter. However, I am expecting a major shift in the pattern toward the last part of January. This shift will be towards a trend of bitter cold weather, that will last into as good part of February. It is during this time, that I expect a blizzard to hit New England, especially here in eastern New England. As for January, there will be enough storms and cold weather, to make this a pretty average month as far as snowfall goes. Winter may of taken its time coming, but I also believe it will linger well into the spring this year.

Now for your ski forecast. The recent winter storms have been very beneficial to many resorts in northern New England. With the storm over the weekend, even southern areas have a good base now, even at the Great Blue Hill in Milton!  With the cold weather coming, ski areas can add to the bases with snowmaking. Despite a few mild spells, I expect excellent conditions to continue into January. Like I said, this is not last year, the mild spells will be short lived, and the cold will return with a vengeance. Mild weather in January can be a good thing. This is the coldest month of the year, so even mild weather can produce big snowstorms, and it’s more pleasant to go skiing in! Expect some bitterly cold weather this week, with only a few passing snow showers from time to time. Look for the coldest weather to be from Wednesday through Saturday. Thereafter, the temperatures may moderate a bit next week.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. This week will be rated a 5 out of 10 on the winter scale. There will be some cold weather, but there are no storms in the forecast. Look for mostly cloudy weather for your New Year’s Eve, look for highs near 32. Expect fine weather for NewYear’s Eve activities, Happy New Year!! It will be cold, but that’s good for the ice sculptures! New Year’s Day will feature partly sunny waether, with the chance of some snow flurries. It will turn colder, with highs falling into the 20’s. Expect dry but colder weather from the period Wednesday through Saturday, with highs mainly in the 20’s and lows dropping into the single digits and lower teens! There will be some moderation on Sunday, with highs back up into 30’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know if we have any significant snowstorms on the way. It’s that time of the year! I will also have your updated ski conditions and forecast. In the meantime, Let’s all strive to have a safe and happier year, despite the number. No doubt, Mother Nature will continue to work her magic throughout the year, leaving us to wonder why we can’t be so perfect.

~~~~~~Thanks for reading!  Have a safe and Happy New Year!~~~~~~

Pete

White Christmas for many…12/24/12

For those dreaming of a White Christmas, I have just the present for you! The winter of discontent for snow lovers, will soon become the winter of misery for those who don’t like snow. What’s the old saying, be careful what you wish for? Fortunately, tomorrow’s snowfall is not going to be the type of storm that will strand families together for days on end. However, it will be just enough snow to blanket the landscape in a Currier & Ives type of setting. Not enough to cause serious travel issues. With that being said, any wintery precipitation that falls, is enough to warrant caution on the roads. This system coming tomorrow may be just the beginning of a large scale pattern change that will bring multiple chances of wintery weather, along with the chance of some significant nor’easters to hit New England as we move into the new year. I will discuss the details of this storm, along with the potential for another more significant storm to rapidly move into the area as soon as the day after Christmas, in my forecast shortly.

So what’s causing the sudden shift to winter? As stated in earlier blogs, winter has been progressing from the north slowly but surely since November. As expected, Mother Nature waited until the winter solstice to arrive to show its true colors. High latitude blocking, which was lacking last winter, has been building steadily throughout the fall. Now that winter has arrived, the jet stream has lowered significantly to start producing winter storms across the country. This, in conjuction with a sub tropical jet stream, will inject moisture into these storms, and when phased with the colder northern jet stream, will produce some significant storms here in New England. In addition, as forecasted in my winter outlook, I still am forecasting a blizzard to strike New England sometime this winter.

Winter storms and blizzards have already struck many parts of the country. Our post Christmas storm will produce hazardous road travel delays in areas that don’t normally see this type of weather. For instance, places such as Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas will be dealing with a heavy snowstorm on Christmas Day! In addition, places such as Alaska, Russia, and parts of China have been experiencing record cold and snow already this winter. So, is the United States and New England ready to share in some of this extreme winter weather? If you have been reading my posts over the past several week’s, I think you know what my answer to that is! The 18 months of tranquil, warm weather we have been experiencing here in New England is about to come to a crashing end. I am expecting to reach my snowfall totals this winter, and possibly more by the time we are finished with this winter sometime in April. Yes, I said April! I’m expecting winter to linger this year well into spring.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to give a quick update on the ski and snow mobile forecast across New England. With this being a huge vacation week, expect conditions to improve rapidly region wide with the impending storm. This looks like a great pattern for the ski areas, especially ones in western and northern New England! But over time, even the smaller areas closer to Boston will start building bases up. What fell as rain down here in southern New England last week, was tremendous snowfall in northern new Hampshire and Maine, to the tune of 2 to 3 feet! Expect conditions to only get better with another heavy snowstorm arriving on Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday!

Now for your all important weekly winter outdoor activity and travel forecast. This week, as I have done in previous years, I am reversing the scale, so the lower the number, the more severe the winter weather will be for the week. This week will be rated a 2 out of 10, with multiple chances of winter weather. For the rest of your Christmas Eve, expect mainly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid to upper 30’s. Later in the day, you will notice high clouds increasing, setting us up for a golden colored sunset. For tonight, clouds will thicken rapidly, with light snow breaking out from west to east, reaching the Boston area likely in the pre-dawn hours.

For Christmas Day, look for a fresh coat of snow to be on the ground during the morning, with light snow falling! How perfect! I am expecting mainly between 1 to 3 inches of snow across the Boston area. There is a chance, if some of the heavier areas of precipitaion moves through, that some ares may see 2 to 4 inches. Look for the snow to gradually dwindle to flurries or drizzle in the afternoon. If you live south of Boston, there may be a light period of freezing rain, so be aware of that. It will be on the cold side, with highs mainly in the mid 30’s.

Watch for skies to clear for a time Christmas night, with some slippery spots developing, as temperatures fall below freezing region wide. Watch for clouds to rapidly increase on Wednesday, it will start to become windy with highs in the upper 30’s. If you are traveling, expect snow, or mixed precipitaion to arrive towards evening.

Wednesday night looks stormy, with strong east to northeast winds, we will have mixed precipitation in Boston, with 1 to 3 inches, possibly changing to rain in the city itself. However, if you live outside of Rt 128 expect a mix of snow and sleet to accumulate 3 to 6 iches. If you live north and west of Rt 495, expect mainly snow with some mixing, with an accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Further in the interior of New Hampshire, the mountains, and western Massachusetts, this will be a heavy snowstorm, with accumulations of over a foot likely. Expect windy and colder weather following this storm into the weekend. On Saturday, expect clouds to begin to increase again. At this point, it look’s like there may be another significant nor’easter lashing eastern Massachusetts Saturday night into Sunday. This may be a colder storm, with strong winds and heavy snows. I will update everyone with this potential later in the week…so stay tuned!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my review of December, and also have my forecast for what we can expect weatherwise for New Year’s Eve here in Boston. I’ll give you a hint, it looks COLD! I will also have my outlook for January, 2013. In addition, I will have a ski and snowboarding forecast. In the meantime, enjoy your holiday tomorrow, also keeping in mind the families affected by the tragedy in Newtown, Connecticut. Please pray for them! Life is too short! We must be more grateful, as life can change forever in a moments notice!

****Wishing everyone a safe & Merry Christmas!!**** Thank you for reading!!

Pete

Winter edging closer…12/17/12

For those who love winter, it’s been another painful beginning this year. What started out so promising with the chilly November temperatures and early season snowstorm, has turned into horror show here in December. That’s if, of course, you live north of the Massachusetts border. Even here it has been unseasonably warm recently,  until this past weekend. Here, a sneaky cold front came through on Saturday, chilling temperatures just enough to cause a wintery storm when moisture arrived from the south and west on Sunday.

In fact, I was awoken this morning to text picture messages from my sister who lives on the seacoast of New Hampshire, with pictures of 2 inches of snow plastering everything, making for a winter wonderland landscape! Even closer to Boston, the mild air from the ocean just barely got into the city, changing any wintery mix over to just a plain cold rain. However, you didn’t need to travel too far to the north and west to run into glazing on the trees and sidewalks. I will talk more about the tricky weather we have coming up into this upcoming weekend a bit later in my forecast.

I also spoke with my other sister this morning, who informed me that one of my nieces has been quite upset at the warm beginning of winter again this year. Many people may not understand, but I can relate to the anxiety Mother Nature can bring our way when seasons seem out of whack. I felt the same way growing up here in New England. While growing up, you remember certain things, special occasions with family, friends, events, especially around the holidays,  that are associated with major weather events such as blizzards and winter storms. It can also mean you have a deep appreciation of Mother Nature and the well being of our earth and nature. If things don’t go according to plan, such as seasons changing on time, it can be stressful thinking that something may be wrong with our climate.

Today, I am here to tell my sweet niece, along with everyone else who may be wondering, that there is nothing wrong with our climate. Yes, things have changed, winters may not be as cold as they once were a while back, summers may be hotter, storms may be more severe today, but I am here to tell you that these are natural pattern swings that is what we call climate. Looking back on the history of the earth’s climate (nearly 5 billion years worth), there have been many warming periods, as well as cooling periods. Many of these swings have more to do with our relationship with our sun and ocean temperatures. The oceans go through cycles of warm and cold periods. Right now, the Pacific Ocean is in it’s cold phase, and the Atlantic is in its warm phase. Part of the reason the polar ice is melting so fast these days is because we are in a warm phase of the Atlantic Ocean, also known as the AMO, or Atlantic Mecadecadel Oscillation. Nobody talks about how the ice in the Antarctic has been increasing the past number of years. Studies have shown, when the AMO begins to go into its cool phase, in about 5 to 10 years,  weather patterns will really seem out of whack, and people will be talking about how the next ice age coming! This in conjunction with recent high solar activity, has tempered our climate, making it seem as if we are never going to have winter weather again here in New England.

I will remember the Great Blizzard of 1978  for as long as I live. Back then, I thought every winter was going to be something like that winter. Boy, was I surprised and humbled when the snowless 80’s and early 90’s came around. During this period, nearly every year featured below normal snowfall amounts and very little cold weather to speak of. Coincidentally, this is exactly when the Atlantic Ocean went into its warm phase. Of course, this type of pattern could not of kept going. In December of 1992, this all changed with a violent nor’easter, which dumped nearly a foot of heavy wet snow here in Boston, 32″ in Worcester, ma. and upwards of 4 ft in some higher elevations of Massachusetts, including Wachusett Mountain in Princeton, Ma.! After that, the next 3 out of 4 winters featured excessive amounts of snow here in Boston, culminating with the record of 107″ back in the winter of 1995-96. The point is, my niece, and all of the younger generation are going to experience their own cycles with the patterns, with some years being snowier and colder than others.

Getting back to current times, we have more important issues to discuss today…the prospects of a white Christmas!!?? I can’t believe Christmas is next Tuesday! Where has the time gone? Anyway, the pattern over the next two week’s will feature more wintery conditions here in New England. Does this mean blizzards and cold? Not exactly. However, if you live in northern New England, your chances for a white Christmas is looking much better leading up to the holiday. In fact, looking at the probabilities, it looks like we will have a average snowcover at Christmas time this year. This means the further north and away from the ocean you live, the greater probability of you having a white Christmas will be higher. For instance, the probabilty of downtown Boston having a white Christmas is about 25%, or about 1 and 4 chance. However, if you live in Worcester, or Manchester, N.H. you have a white Christmas about 60% of the time. The further north and west you go, the chances grow to 75 to 90% chance way up in northern New England.

Looking over the weather charts, it appears as if there will several more storms this week to increase these odds, especially over the interior. There will be a storm tomorrow night and Wednesday which will feature heavy rain here in southern New England. However, if you live north of Concord, N.H. and the interior of Maine and the mountains, this may end up being a skiers delight, with possibly over a foot of snow falling. The rain may even turn to a bit of snow all the way down to Boston on Wednesday. After that, there will be another storm on Friday, which looks like it will bring more rain at first to most of New England. However, this storm may have a history to it. Unlike other storms, this storm may linger off the New England coast, due to a block in the atmosphere, straight through Christmas Day! The position of this storm is critical. If it stalls in the Gulf of Maine, it will bring periods of snow and windy conditions to northern New England for several days. In this type of a pattern, even southern New England can expect snow from time to time. Will it be enough to bring a white Christmas to the Boston area? I do believe, it may be enough to at least whiten the landscape and be very Christmas like, without impeding travel. So we may get the best of both world’s this year? However, if this storm, were to park itself a bit further south, even the Boston area may experience several inches of accumulation. As always, I will keep you posted with this potential.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week a 4 out of 10, as there will be several days of inclement weather. Look for cloudy, damp, chilly weather for the rest of today, tonight and into Tuesday. Look for highs today and tomorrow to be in the lower 40’s in Boston, and the mid 30’s over the interior. It will also be damp tonight, without as many icy spots as last night, but still beware temperatures could hover close to freezing inland.

Watch for periods of heavy rain to move into Boston later tomorrow into tomorrow night, lows will remain above freezing. This rain will fall as a wintery mix and snow far to the north and inland. In fact, the mountains may end up with a good snowstorm, with over a foot of snow falling at some resorts!

The snow will continue up north on Wednesday, while leftover showers may briefly end as some snow showers even in the Boston area, it will become breezy, with highs near 40. Expect a dry, seasonably chilly day on Thursday with highs in the lower 40’s.

For the first day of winter on Friday, watch for rain to move into most regions, even up north, temperatures may briefly warm up into the 50’s with strong southerly winds. As stated earlier, this storm may slowly meander of the New England coast for a few days, so expect blustery colder weather for this weekend, along with the chance of occasional snow up north, especially in the mountains, and passing snow showers down here in southern New England. This type of weather may persist right into Christmas Day.

Well that’s about it for today! In next week’s blog, I will have your official Christmas Day forecast, it will be the next day, so I better get it right! I will also have a more thorough forecast for families who will be doing some skiing across New England during vacation week. In addition, I will have your extended forecast for the rest of the year, and look into what January 2013 may have in store for us! In the meantime, with each and passing day, winter is edging closer to us here along the coast, by Saturday, you will know that it is here!  ~Wishing everyone a safe and happy holiday season!~

Pete

Mild weather to persist…12/10/12

I hope everyone had a nice weekend! Despite what the calander says, Mother Nature continues to defy seasonal norms, bringing more unseasonably mild weather to New England this past weekend. This was the weekend I visited my sister and brother in law in the seacoast region of New Hampshire to go cut down a Christmas tree! To say the weather was very not December like would be an understatement. In fact, the weather yesterday reminded me of the weather we had last year when we went to get the tree, which was sunny and mild. I don’t know about you, but I like to have a little bit a chill to the air when I go get the Christmas tree. A little snow on the ground or in the air would make it that much better. Despite the mild weather, a cheerful time was had by all!

With the warm beginning to December, many have been asking me whether we are going to have the same type of winter as last year . As I said in last week’s blog…this is not last winter! However, just saying this is not last winter, is not a good enough explanation for some people, and I can understand that. The warm start to this winter is complicated to explain, without getting into a technical meteorological discussion. To keep things simple, let me tell you what I believe is going to happen here.

I have been studying New England weather my whole life. There are no simple answers here. It’s complicated, it’s mysterious, and it always surprises you. Some years, winter comes early, then fades quickly after the new year. Other years, winter waits until the winter solstice arrives on December 21 st, then grows stronger from there until the spring equinox in March. This year, winter seemed like it wanted to come very early in November, with the below normal temperatures, only to back off here in the beginning of December. This year, despite the slow start, I believe winter will turn out much like what I had in my winter forecast. Not to rehash, but I’m still expecting a much stormier winter to unfold here in New England this year, starting right about at the time of the winter solstice. As I explained, the second half of the winter is going to be colder and stormier than the first half, with a blizzard striking the region in February.

What I believe is happening here, is that the weather patterns are in a delayed mode right now. In other words, there is a lag effect from last years winter pattern into the start of this year. Once the solstice hits, the new true winter pattern for this year will settle in, one that will be very different from last year. This is not to say a severe winter is on the way, this was not forecasted for this year. However, for those who enjoy winter outdoor activities and a good storm or two, this may be your type of winter!

Speaking of outdoor activities, here is you ski forecast for this week, and a bit beyond. Despite the warm conditions in southern New England today, things a bit different in the northern ski areas. There was a burst of snow and ice that moved through the ski areas early today, dropping anywhere from 2 to 6″ of snow. This will transition to some plain rain this afternoon into this evening. There will be a crusty net gain in many northern areas. After today, look for more seasonable temperatures to return for the rest of this week. This means highs mainly in the 30’s, and lows in the teens and twenties, so snowmaking can resume during the overnight hours. Looking to the rest of December, watch for increasingly wintery conditions to settle into ski country. I am expecting the Greenland Block to develop next weekend, bringing ski country the chance for their first winter storm of the season. This pattern is likely to continue to bring several more snowfalls leading up to, what looks like to me, solid ski and snow boarding conditions during the Christmas week holiday this year. This winter may prove to be quite stormy across the mountains of New England, bringing many chances of heavy snowfalls.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week another 7 out of 10. Not bad again heading into the middle of December! For the rest of your Monday, expect warm and wet condtions to be the rule. Boston’s record high temperature for the date is 64 degrees. We have a shot to at least tie this temperature. Down across southeastern Mass. there will be many temperatures in the lower to mid 60’s! Across the interior, look for temperatures to reach into the 50’s, with only 40’s for high temperatures across New Hampshire and southern parts of Maine.

If you are going to the Patriots game tonight, expect warm temperatures to start, with temperatures around 60. However, I would bring a rain slicker and also a heavier jacket, as heavy showers will be moving through. With a quick wind shift to the west, expect temperatures to chill quickly towards the end of the game into the 40’s. Look for sunny weather but cooler temperatures for your Tuesday, with highs in the low 40’s. It will be fair and seasonably cold tomorrow night, with lows mainly in the20’s and low 30’s.

Expect similar weather for Wednesday through Friday, with possibly some clouds on Wednesday, otherwise, sun should prevail for both Thursday and Friday. At this point, next weekend things could start to become a bit more tricky. I am expecting the first of several storm systems to affect us leading up to Christmas. Right now, I would lean more towards rain here in southern New England, and snow for northern parts of New England next Sunday. There is a chance that this storm re-develops south of New England on Sunday, if this were to happen, rain could change to snow even here in southern New England. I will keep you posted on this possibility. Looking further ahead, there will be several more chances for storms leading right up to and beyond Christmas Day…so keep checking in!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a more in depth look at our fascinating weather pattern setting up for the rest of December! I will also have your New England ski forecast as winter continues to press into the area. In addition, I will have a current weather segment, as there are many interesting things going on around the world! In the meantime, mild weather will persist for a bit more, but beware the winter solstice, and the true start of winter! ~Thank you for reading!~

Pete

This is not last year…12/3/12

I know what you’re thinking. You woke up this morning and stepped outside, and you said to yourself, did that guy who talks about the weather actually say that this is going to be a colder and snowier winter last week? The short answer to that question is yes… yes I did! Just look back to the winter forecast I made just last week. True, while driving around town this morning I saw plenty of people jogging and walking in shorts and t-shirts. I also saw many other people heading into work without jackets on.

After a colder than normal November, which acted more like December, people have come out again to enjoy yet another spring fling here in December! Before you start getting visions of another year without a winter on the way, let me fill you in on some important news:  This is not last year! Enjoy the brief burst of warm weather. When we look back, we’re going to ask ourselves, was it really in the 60’s at the beginning of December?

So why am I so confident about a change coming? For this, I turn to a term we use in forecasting the weather called teleconnections. This is where we look to other parts of the world and see what kind of weather they are having, then we connect them to a wavelenght pattern which brings it to the New England region 7 to 10 days down the line. There are other factors that we use such as the ocean temperatures, jet stream configuration, and blocking patterns. I then look at what the long range computer models to see if this verifies.

Right now, severe cold is building up in Canada, and heavy snowstorms  happening in Siberia and China. There are no gaurantees, but with computer models forecasting the Greenland Block to develop soon, I would say there is a very high probability of a strong winter storm or two affecting us leading up to Christmas or near Christmas Day. In addition, I also feel as if some of the coldest weather we’ve had in years will be unleashed upon us before the end of the year.

Looking over things, despite the warm start in December, I believe temperatures are actually going to end up a bit below average for the month. This is because I am expecting some bitter cold air to make an appearance here in New England around the winter solstice, and continue until the end of the year. Boston’s Logan airport normally averages about 8″ of snow for the month. Despite the “dry” look on some computer models, I am expecting above normal snow here in Boston. By the end of the month, I think we will end up with between 10 and 15″ of snow to have accumulated. Not a record, but we will get a significant storm at some point after mid-December. Remember, I believe our largest storm, in the form of a blizzard, will hit sometime in February this year.

So how did we do in November this year? This was an important month for the weather here in Boston. Yes, it was a dry month, however it did end up close to three degrees below average temperatures. This was perhaps the coldest month in Boston in nearly two years! There was also a nor’easter at the beginning of the month which delivered many of us our first snowfall. Logan airport only recorded about a half inch of snow, but many outlying areas, including Boston’s western side neighborhoods measured three or four inches of wet snow. Many times, November sets the trend for the upcoming winter, which I expect will turn out colder and snowier than average.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. Not much wintery weather this week, although it will trend colder for the second part of the week. With the mild weather to start, I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Not bad for the first week of December. Look for sunny and warm weather for the rest of your Monday, with highs near 60! There will be some increase in clouds overnight, with lows near 30 in rural areas, to close to 40 in the cities.

Expect very mild weather to continue Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 50’s without sun, but possibly lower 60’s if we get any periods of sunshine! A cold front will push through the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday with some rain showers. It will turn progressively cooler during the day, with highs starting out in the lower 50’s, but dropping into the upper 30’s by the time you head home, so bring your coats to work!

It will be dry and colder Wednesday night and Thursday, with lows mainly in the 20’s and highs only in the upper 30’s to very low 40’s. With less wind, it will feel better on Friday and Saturday, with dry weather, expect highs both days to mainly be in the 40’s to near 50. At this point, a storm system may begin to affect us on Sunday with rain showers developing, and highs near 50.

After a very wintery November, not much natural snow for the ski resorts this week. With the cold air, many resorts were able to make snow, and received some natural snow. Warm weather will also visit the north country, but expect colder weather to arrive by Wednesday, with snow making resuming by nightfall. As stated earlier, a major shift to the pattern by mid-month may bring some true wintery weather up north.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will begin to focus on when we should expect expect the weather pattern to turn to a more wintery side, and if any major storms are on our horizon before Christmas. I will also have your weekly winter outdoor activity and ski forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the current warm spell, it may be the warmest weather we see again until next spring!

Pete

Winter forecast 2012-13: Winter’s back! 11/26/12

I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving holiday weekend! Despite the winter like chill to the air over the weekend, you couldn’t of asked for a better stretch of weather leading up to Thanksgiving. The holiday itself was spectacular region wide, with mild temperatures and brilliant sunshine. And it wasn’t only here in New England. Across most of the country, the weather was unusually quiet for last half of November. Taking that a little further, aside from the nor’easter at the beginning of the month, November has been a virtually storm free month here in New England. The big question of the day, is it going to stay this way?

Over the weekend, I had the chance to read some interesting winter forecasts. Today, it seems like everyone wants to give their two cents about what they think the upcoming winter will be. The common theme I found with alot of these predictions was, “It’s going to be snowier and colder than last year.” This is a very scientific observation! One that needed a great deal of research to come to this conclusion! You don’t need to have a meteorology degree to figure this one out. If you recall, last year was one of the warmest and driest winters on record here in New England. So we pretty much know it’s going to be colder and snowier this winter…the big question is just by how much???

Over the years, meteorologists have made great strides in understanding the climate and our weather. They don’t get it right all of the time, but they do get it right most of the time. No one is perfect in this world. With advanced computer models, forecasting the weather has improved dramatically in understanding this complex science. Like I have said before, it’s tough enough making a forecast for the next day, never mind a whole seaons worth! With this being said, advanced study and research of understanding the role ocean temperatures play in relation with the sun spot cycles has made even seasonal forecast fairly reliable these days.

So how do I make my winter forecast? Well, as I have said before, I rely on my natural surroundings, and look in the past to predict the future. That’s not to say I don’t look at the science behind the forecast, I do, but I also look at about 15 to 20 natural indicators as well to solidify my forecast. One of the greatest things about the internet, is being able to give people who love the weather, some of the same information that the experts get. This makes all of us smarter in the field to a degree. It’s how we utilize all of this information that makes a difference.

So far this fall, there has been many indications of a snowy winter coming this year. However, at the same time, there has been some conflicting signs pointing against this. This complicates things, and where I have to use my experience and knowledge to determine what actually is going to happen. Some things pointing to a snowy winter are:  colder than average November temperatures, many heavy frosts during November, many thick foggy days during October, first freeze of the year at Boston’s Logan airport happening right on time this year. Also, our first sowfall happening after the first freeze, not before like last year.

There has been extensive research showing a direct relation to November temperatures at Logan airport to how much snow falls the following season. The closer it is to average, the more snow falls. When temperatures  fall either too warm by +3 degrees or greater, or too cold by -3 degrees or more less below the normal, less than average snowfall generally occurs. There are exceptions to this rule, but the years are few and far between.

So what are the conflicting signs? Well, I am concerned about the precipitation trends. This has been a very dry year, and dry autumn so far here in Boston. We are way below average for precipitation this month, and nearly 8″ below for the year. Even if it is colder than normal winter, without the moisture, you’re not going to get the snow. Back in the early atumn, it looked like we were heading into a weak El nino for this winter. Now this has appeared to have diminished. This is important, as Boston has had some of their snowiest winters during weak El nino years. This is because the El Nino supplies an moisture rich southern sub-tropical jet stream, which when phasing with the northern jet stream supplying the cold, results in our biggest snowstorms. If the El Nino is too strong, it pulls too much warm air in from southern latitudes, resulting in more rainy storms. This is a big wild card. If the El Nino were to revive itself around Christmas time, it could throw the whole snowfall forecast off. Right now, I’m going with what many other forecasters are saying, that this is going to be a neutral year, no El Nino, and no La Nina. Many meteorologists call this type of a season a La Nada season.

Among other things I look for for signs of winter is, squirrel activity, geese flying south, volcanic activity, sun spot cycles, and whether we have any thunder during the month of October. I can tell you this, we had two episodes of quite severe thunder during October this year. According to old New England sayings, “thunder in October means a warm January.” I will incorporate this in my forecast. For this reason, I’m expecting some wild temperature swings this upcoming winter, ranging from bitter cold, to warm, tranquil stretches.

So putting all of this together, what can you expect for this upcoming winter? I am expecting a winter much more typical that we’re used to here in New England. However, at this point, I’m not expecting a winter with record snow across the region. Record snow in Boston was 107″ back in the 1995-96 winter. Look for our coldest air to be during the second half of December, and then again during February and March. For this reason, I believe we have a 75% chance of a White Christmas this year. January may be stormy, but will have have wild temperature swings, making it a warmer than normal month. Of course when we get to March, it will be coldest relative to the averages. But I do expect below average temperatures to be the rule for the second part of winter. And when I mean cold, I mean we will experience some of coldest weather in years this winter, especially up north. 

I know there will be much more cold this winter, but are we going to get the precipitation? This is the ultimate wildcard. Right now, I am forecasting above normal amounts of snow for eastern Massachusetts, including Boston. If a weak El Nino develops, this may need to be increased. Subsequently, it the block is too strong, it will force more storms out to sea, lowering snowfall expectations. Average snow at Boston’s Logan airport is 44″ per year. This year, I am expecting between 50 and 60″ of snow to fall. I am also expecting a blizzard to paralyze the area this winter with a very heavy snowfall. The Greenland Block has been showing up quite a bit this fall, and if this block develops in just the right location, we could get a very slow moving intense nor’easter to blast eastern Massachusetts. That’s why I am expecting a blizzard this winter. All of this, combined with the memories of last winter, will make this winter seem alot more harsh than normal. It’s all a delicate balance.

With the much colder weather anticipated this winter, expect better than average ski seaon this year, lasting well into the spring. There may not be as much moisture to work with, but what does fall, will fall as snow. Expect near average amounts of snow to fall in the interior of New England and the mountains, with above average amounts likely in Vermont this year. If you live closer to the ocean in New Hampshire and most of Maine, you can expect similar results, with near average amounts of snow. Southern areas of New Hampshire & Maine average about 60 to 70″ of snow, with 70 to 80″ the further north you go along the coast. In the interior, these amounts increase to 80 to 100″ in the valley’s, to up to 250″ in the mountains. You will remember the shots of bitter cold this year more than the snow.

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. This will be the last autumn outdoor activity forecast, as winter begins next week. Look for this week to be rated a 6 out of 10. This rating is down a little due to a possibility of a light snowfall, and very cold air arriving towards weeks end. Look for mostly to partly sunny weather for the rest of your Monday, with highs mainly in the mid 40’s. Skies will begin to cloud up overnight, with lows dropping into the 30’s.

Watch for a period of snow to develop during the late morning continuing into the late afternoon. With highs in the mid to upper 30’s, the snow will not stick on the roads. There may be up to 1″ of snow near Boston, and maybe up to 2″ south of  Boston. Look for some icy patches Tuesday night, with lows dropping into the lower to mid 30’s. There may be some left over drizzle or light snow grains Wednesday morning, with possibly some heavier snow up into Maine, otherwise expect clearing skies during the afternoon, with highs in the lower 40’s. Look for the full Beaver moon Wednesday night under clearing skies.

Watch for dry, colder weather for Thursday through Saturday. Highs will be near 40 on Thursday, only in the mid 30’s on Friday with a stiff wind…brrrr! And back up to near 40 on Saturday for the first day of meteorological winter!  Right now, there is a chance of some very light snow or rain snow mix on Sunday as warmer air ties to move in, highs may reach 40 late in the day. There may be a shot of above normal temperatures at the beginning of next week, but bitter cold weather may return not too long after, so enjoy!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my review for November, and take a look at what December has in store for us. I will also have your first skiing and outdoor winter activity forecast next week! In the meantime, if you do not like the cold and snow, I would recommend you spend the winter down in Florida. For those who like the winter, stick around, it may be one to remember!

Pete