Benign weather continues…11/19/12

After a couple of intense storms battering the mid-atlantic and New England region this fall, Mother Nature has pulled back off the gas pedal here in mid-November. According to computer models from last week, we should of been gearing up for our third major nor’easter to strike us. As it turns out, the storm is developing, however the track of it will be more towards the east rather than up the coast. This is a good thing. With all of the chilly air hanging around lately, undoubtebly, this storm would of carried its share of high winds, coastal flooding,  heavy rain, and even heavy wet snow. With this being the busiest travel weeks of the year, this should come as a relief for all those traveling over the hills to Grandma’s house. I will have my complete Thanksgiving week forecast at the end of this blog.

We are now a little more than half way through the month of November, and it’s time to reviewing what the weather has been like, and what we can expect for the remainder of the month. As I have been saying, November is the critical month that I use, in determining what kind of a winter we should expect here in New England for the upcoming winter. There are many other things I look at, but the temperature and precipitation patterns during the month is the number one signal.

So, how have we been doing? Well so far, it has been an interesting month. As predicted, it has been a much cooler November this year compared to last. How much you ask? Temperatures have been averaging about two degress below average. At one point, they were as much as five degrees below earlier in the month. Last year, November turned out to be the warmest November on record, and we all know how warm the winter turned out. Looking out over the next two weeks, I see temperatures which are going to be all over the place. It looks like there will be brief warm-ups followed by cold shots of air. If you add all this up, I believe November will come in at very close to, if not slightly below average.

How about precipitation? So far, despite what you may think, it has been a very dry year in Boston. We actually are running nearly 8″ below the average for the year! Part of this should be blamed upon the record dry and warm winter of last year.  Despite the two significant storms this fall, we are still running dryer than normal. This trend has continued into November, where we are running dryer than normal for the month. November is typically one of our wettest months of the year!

So what does this mean for the upcoming winter? This is two conflicting signals going on here. Yes, the temperatures may signal a tough winter ahead, but the dry look to the patterns signal otherwise. I have seen patterns like this blossom into severe winters. Back in the fall of 1993, we had many days similar to this November. There were many sunny, pleasantly cool days, followed by many cold, frosty nights. There wasn’t much in the way of storms that November either. However the following winter was severe, with some 26 snowstorms paralyzing the Boston area from late December through the spring equinox.In the end, I believe the average temperatures trump precipitation patterns. Will this winter have similar results? Tune in next Monday for my official 2012-13 winter forecast!

Now for current weather events across the country. Aside from an early season nor’easter at the beginning of the month, things have been very quiet across most of the country. Yes, arctic air is building up over Canada, so this will need to be watched as we head towards December, but other than that, it has been fairly tranquil. It has been quite stormy across the Pacific Northwest. This in itself is not unusual. However, in a year that was supposed to feature a week El Nino, this is unusual. This type of pattern is consistant with La Nina years, such as last year. My feeling is that there still is a lag effect from the pattern of last year. It shows up sometimes at the beginning of the next season, only to switch as the new season begins to mature.

Normally, when the Pacific Northwest is stormy, New England is not. This is because of the way the wavelengths are set up in the jet stream. When there is a trough out west, there usually is ridging, or high pressure over the east. There are exceptions to this rule sometimes. For instance, this fall, the jet stream has been surpressed south of our region due to the influence of the Greenland Block. This was missing last winter, and could prove to be the link for more stormy weather this winter.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity and travel forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Not bad for the third week of November! There won’t be many weather changes through Friday. Look for some sun mixed with clouds for the rest of your Monday. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs in the upper 40’s. It will be another frosty night, with lows mainly in the 20’s and low 30’s.

Expect winds to freshen a bit from the northeast for both tomorrow and Wednesday. This is in response to the developing ocean storm well to our southeast. This will do two things. One, it will increase some cloudiness, so it may not be as sunny, and two, it will bring slightly milder air into the region. So expect temperatures do be near 50 both Tuesday and Wednesday, and lows will mainly be in the 30’s. It will be mainly dry. However, if the atmosphere moistens enough, there may be a touch of drizzle Wednesday morning?

Look for some early morning clouds for your Thanksgiving Day, then some afternoon sun is possible. It will turn a bit milder during the day, with temperatures starting off in the 30’s, but warming into the lower 50’s in the afternoon for your after noon walk. Look for the fair and mild weather to continue into Friday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s!

As for next weekend, look for mild temperatures to continue into Saturday, with possibly a few showers moving through. I am not expecting a washout. Watch for dropping temperatures on Sunday, with highs starting out in the 40’s but falling into the 30’s by afternoon. Don’t be surprised if you see a few snow showers during the day, as the cold air rushes in.

Well that’s about it for now. Next week, look for my official 2012-13 winter forecast for New England.  I will also have your forecast for the last week of November. In the meantime, please keep those who are less fortunate in mind during this holiday season. Wishing everyone:

 ~ A SAFE AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING!~ Thanks for reading.

Pete

Indian Summer! 11/12/12

Happy Veterans’  Day to all the veteran’s who gave dedicated sercice to our country in the past, and to the men and woman serving our country today. As you enjoy our Indian Summer weather today, remember the people who sacrificed their lives for our freedom which we enjoy today!

A couple of days ago a few of the local meteorologists were remarking that this will not be a stretch of true Indian Summer weather. No disrespect, but that can’t be further from the truth! This is as classic textbook Indian Summer as it gets around here! Unlike last year, when Indian Summer weather was the rule rather than the exception, this fall, things have been different. For one, 100% of New England has received their first freeze of the season, or in other words, everyone has fallen to 32 degrees or below. This is the #1 criteria to officially call it Indian Summer. Last year, many areas did not fall to 32 degrees until sometime in December! No, this won’t be the longest stretch of Indian Summer that we’ve ever had, but after the past couple of week’s, I think many people will take it!

The nice weather began settling into the region on Saturday, with light winds, and abundant sunshine, temperatures felt alot warmer than what they really were. This trend continued yesterday, as temperatures reached the mid 60’s nearly everywhere. Today will be the warmest of the bunch, with temperatures making a run at 70 degrees in many locations! I hate to crash the party, but today may be the last warm day like this until perhaps next spring…so get out and enjoy it!

Not only have we had our first freeze, but many areas set back from the ocean have already had their first snowfall as well! Last week’s nor’easter caught many meteorologists off gaurd as accumulating snows to the tune of 3 to 6″ fell late last Wednesday into Wednesday night. I forecasted that there would be some snow involved, but mainly across the deep interior. It was surprising to see the snow come right inside of Rt 128 like that. All things created equal, with no snow falling last winter, it wasn’t too surprising for me to see snow falling so early this year.

So with our first snow falling so early this year, many are asking me if they should be prepared for big snows  this upcoming winter. This is the million dollar question. As you know, I am as big a weather enthusiast as they come. I follow all of the top weather agencies and experts in the field that this country has to offer. Despite all of these resources, I can honestly say that that the forecast for this upcoming  winter has the experts scratching their heads more than any other winter in recent memory. It seems the more we try and get the answers, the more Mother Nature changes the questions. There are just too many variables to consider to plug into the equation. It’s quite the complex situation. There are very few experts in the field who truly understand and know what kind of winter we are going to have here in New England.

With all that being said, I would like to give you a quick preview on what kind of a winter I believe we are going to have here in New England this year. Remember, my official forecast will not be published until November 26th.

One thing that many people can agree on over the past several years, is that we are in a time of extreme weather events. Whether it’s the 6 week period of relentless snows two years ago, the unprecedented warm and dry winter and spring of last year, or the terrorfying storms that slammed the mid-atlantic and New England region this fall, things seem to be getting more extreme. The big question is…what’s next?

Unlike many professionals  in the weather business, who rely on computer models and what they’re saying about the future, I look to the present and past to find my answers. Don’t get me wrong, computer models have excelled in helping meteorologists in predicting the weather to amazingly pinpoint accuracy. Meteorologists are highly trained people who know how to interpret all of these computer models and data to deliver,  in many cases, life saving forecasts.

I like to use a less technical way to generate my own forecasts. I do look at all resources, including computer models and technical discussions, but I rely mostly on past weather data to predict the future. For instance, I look at temperature and precipitation trends for the autumn to forecast what may happen the following winter. It sounds simple, but it’s quite a bit of research involved. In my official forecast, I will tell you about many other natural things I look at in determining my forecast.

So what have I found out so far this year? This fall, I have noticed a cooling trend in the overall temperature schemes across the region. While September started out warm, October was cooler, still not below average, but cooler nonetheless. So far, November has been the coldest month, averaging a full 5 degrees below average so far. This will be muted somewhat with the current warm spell. Temperatures should stabilize over the next two week’s, with colder periods, along with milder ones. Overall, I’m expecting November to finish with below average temperatures across a good portion of New England.

In years past, this has shown us that New England receives above average amounts of snow the following winter. In addition, it’s very important to note, that Boston’s Logan airport had its first freeze, last Monday, November 5th, this is right about normal for the date. We then received our first snowfall two days later. Although not as much as surrounding areas, Logan did accumulate  4 tenths of an inch of snow.

For people who love snow, having a freeze before our first snow is very encouraging. The final average temperature at the end of the month will determine just how much snow we receive in the Boston area this winter. At this point, I’m expecting above average amounts of snow this winter in Boston (avg. is 44″” at the airport). How much above is the big question, I will have my final numbers on November 26th.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I am rating this week a 8 out of 10, weighted heavily with today’s fine weather. Expect full blown Indian Summer conditions for the rest of your Monday, with sunshine along with some decorative high clouds, and light winds.  It will be warm in many locations, with highs approaching 70! Look for increasing clouds overnight, with mild condtions, lows will mainly be in the 40’s and 50’s.

Tuesday will be a transition day, with showers moving through from time to time. It will be cooler, with highs starting off near 60, then falling to near 50 by days end. Wednesday will be colder, with chilly northeast winds, expect highs to barely reach 50. Along with the chill, clouds may hang tough from Boston and points to the southeast.

Look for mainly dry conditions but chilly temperatures for the period Thursday through Sunday, with highs within a few degrees either side of 50, and lows mainly in the 20’s and 30’s. There may be a storm brewing for Thanksgiving week, I will keep you updated with this potential.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your all important forecast for the busiest travel week of the year! I will also continue the trends for the upcoming winter, and also discuss any current weather events. In the meantime, enjoy Indian Summer weather for today, come next week, Mother Nature may give us a turkey of a forecast!

Pete

Sandy’s aftermath and beyond…11/5/12

It has now been a full week since a hurricane named Sandy devastated the New Jersey coastline and flooded New York City with a unprecedented storm surge. It’s not everyday that you see a hurricane interact with winter time cold to also cause a blizzard on its western side! Once in a hundred year storm, devastating, unprecedented, superstorm…these are the only words coming to mind to describe what could only be a storm of biblical proportions. Sure, we had our problems here in New England, but we were on the northern edge of the storm! Had this storm moved straight north through Narraganset Bay, we would of been looking at the damage that New Jersey is dealing with. Yes, there were damages and inconveniences brought to us by the storm, but as a whole, we were very fortunate here in New England, especially from the Boston area points north.

The storm brought out the best and the worst in people. Mayor Bloomberg averted a public meltdown, as he made the right call at the last second to cancel the New York City marathon. Imagine what people were thinking when there were people suffering on Staten Island, with no power, no homes, and no food. Then they started rolling in the huge generators, food, and alcohol for the after party, all for the runners and dignitaries…disgusting! As it turned out, many of the runners volunteered to help out with the disaster, so it all turned out to be a good thing.

I was fearing the worst for my friend who lives on Nantasket beach in Hull. With the atronomic high tide due as the storm moved in, we were both thinking that the ocean would at least be as bad as the post Christmas Day Blizzard in 2010, when the storm surge flooded the parking lot of his building. As it turned out, the ocean, although very impressive, never came even remotely close to his building…which is a good thing of course.

I believe we averted severe coastal damage here in eastern Massachusetts because of the track the storm took. Although this storm was one of the strongest ever recorded in our region, the main thrust of the storm was pointing towards the New York and New Jersey region, not eastern Massachusetts,  which again, is a good thing for us! Because the storm took an uncharacteristic sharp left hook, it also took all of the waves and destructive storm surge with it, right into New Jersey.

With all that being said, many people were asking me how could a category 1 storm cause such devastating damage? This is a very good observation, one that is not so easy to answer. I’m not a meteorologist, however, I do have my theory on why I believe so much damage occurred. Although this technically was a hurricane, with a warm core, I do believe the cold trough digging into the system on the west side “injected” a shot of cyclonic energy into the storm, turning a regular cat 1 hurricane, into an unusual hybrid type of a storm. This was the cold air that caused the blizzard in the West Virginia’s mountains! In addition, this storm was intensifying as it was heading towards the coast, which makes a big difference in the damage it can produce. This, in conjunction with the winter time type blocking pattern that developed, helped to make this storm one of the worst ever to hit the mid-atlantic region.

Many people were also asking me whether I thought this storm was due to global warming. This again, is a complicated answer. It was exactly one year ago from Sandy, that a savage autumn storm pummeled interior New England with a snowstorm of historic proportions. Ater that storm, we went exactly one year with no extreme weather events, until Sandy hit. We are in an era of extreme weather events, whether it’s a drought, heat waves, blizzards, or hurricanes, the weather these days are more extreme than ever. What I believe is that we are in a era of natural climate change, due to the changes of the temperatures of the oceans. One thing to keep in mind, is that these storms have happened in the past! In some cases, even worse! Has humans exasperated the situation, probably. As we move forward, we must learn as a society, to respect Mother Nature. Whether global warming is real, or not, we need to take better care of the earth than what we’ve been doing. Only when we make drastic changes in the amount of carbon dioxide we polute into the atmosphere, can we really get an idea of what’s going on. Unfortunately, this society we live in today don’t see it that way. They want to know how quick they can get it, and what’s in it for them.

So how how did October end up weatherwise here in New England?  Well, overall, it turned out to be a little warmer than normal, and precipitation was just a little more than average, thanks to the storm at the end of the month. It turned out to be just about what I thought it would be. I did not anticipate a hurricane at the end of the month. There were many foggy days, and we heard thunder here in Boston on two occasions.

Now that we are into November, what can we expect for this month? As it turns out, it appears as if Logan airport will have its first freeze of the year, tonight! This is right at the average date for this to happen. I expect these condtions to continue for the rest of the month. Meaning I am expecting a typical November on the way, with just about average temperatures and precipitation. There will be times of chilly weather puncuated with thimes of milder weather. November tends to be our wettest  and cloudiest month, with around 4″ of precipitation falling. Logan airport averages about an inch and a half of snow in November, more to the north and west. We can go many years without any measurable snow in November, then get hit with a decent snowstorm. One thing to remember, we can run into wintery weather in November, with ice and snow…so be prepared!

Now to your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10, due to the impending storm coming. Look for many clouds mixed with some sun for the rest of the afternoon. It will be chilly, with highs in the mid 40’s. Watch for clear and cold weather tonight, lows will drop into the 20’s across 90% of New England, with temperatures falling to about 32 degrees in downtown Boston, for its first freeze.

Election Day will be sunny and cold, with highs barely making it into the lower 40s’. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday night, with a freshening northeast wind, lows will drop into the mid 30’s. Expect to feel the effects of a major nor’easter beginning Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be increasing from the northeast, and rain will be overspreading the area from south to north. Across the interior, southwest New Hampshire and western Mass. this precipitation may fall as mixture of rain and snow! Expect a stormy Wednesday night, with windswept rains along the coast, and possibly some heavy wet snow across the mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont , and the Berkshires! It will be cold, with lows mainly in the 30’s and very low 40’s.

After a stormy morning, look for the storm to gradually taper down to showers and drizzle Thursday afternoon. If you live on the water, watch for some beach erosion and splash over once again at the time of high tide. It will be on the raw side, with highs in the upper 40’s. Look for improving conditions on Friday, with clouds breaking for some sun, highs will be in the lower 50’s.

Right now, expect better weather for next weekend, with sunny skies and moderating temperatures. Look for highs to be in the lower 50’s on Saturday, and close to 60 on Sunday!

Well that’s about it for now! Next week, I will focus my attention on the preliminary winter outlook for New England. This will be followed by the official release on November 26th. In the meantime, get ready for a mid-week nor’easter, and don’t forget to vote on Tuesday!

Pete

Rough afternoon ahead…10/29/12

Because of time constraints, and the current weather situation ongoing, this blog is going to concentrate on giving everyone an update on the latest with Hurricane Sandy. I will try and post my full blog with the review of October , the preview of November, and the winter outlook sometime later this week.

Despite the center of Sandy being nearly 400 miles away from Boston, expect the storm to ramp up in intensity from about noon today until about 8:00 pm tonight. During this period, we can expect sustained winds ranging from between 35 and 45 m.ph. with gusts up to hurricane force of 75 m.p.h. possible. If you live within 10 miles of the ocean, expect widespread power outages and tree damage to occur. This holds true from the coast of New hampshire down through Gloucester, Ma., the City of Boston and adjacent south shores. In addition, expect squalls of heavy rain to pinwheel in from the ocean. As you head to the Cape, winds may exceed hurricane force with gusts of up to 80 m.ph. This is a dangerous storm! the worst is moving in right now!

Currently, Sandy is approximately 250 miles southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey, it is moving towards the west,  northwest and will make landfall sometime this evening. As Sandy begins to interact with the cold air to the west, it is beginning to actually intensify rapidly. Sandy’s central pressure has fallen to 943 millibars, to make this storm one of the most powerful storms ever to affect the mid-atlantic region. The combination of all these seasons clashing is causing a storm of historic proportions to affect millions. As this storm makes landfall, people in New Jersy and New York can expect sustained wind of near 90 m.p.h. and wind gusts of near 110 m.p.h. In addition, Sandy will bring a storm surge of unprecedented levels, flooding areas of New York City, and adjacent burroughs.

So if the storm is so far away, why is it so windy here? Even though Sandy is maintaining tropical characteristics, she is also interacting with very much a winter type weather pattern across New England. With The Greenland Block developed to our north, this has built strong high pressure to our north. The pressure gradiant between the high to our north and low pressure to our south is helping to create a tight pressure gradiant across our area, creating all of the winds. This block is also helping Sandy steer westward into the mid-atlantic and not up into New England.

As the storm makes landfall this evening, expect the wind field to continue to expand, as the storm turns extratropical in nature. Therefore, expect gusty winds to continue across our area through the night. In addition, because the flow will be turning and coming from the south, expect the weather to turn milder, and more tropical as we move into Tuesday. There will continue to be bands of showers moving through the area through Wednesday. Right now, I’m holding out hope that Halloween evening will feature some tranquil weather, with perhaps a leftover shower, and temperatures in the low 50’s for all of the trick or treaters! Thereafter, expect cooler, dryer weather to move into the region from Thursday through Sunday, with highs in the 50’s, and lows in the 30’s and 40’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In my next blog, I will review the month of October, and preview what we should expect for the upcoming month of November. In addition, I will have a quick preview on my thoughts for the upcoming winter season. My official forecast will not be released until the third week of November. In the meantime, be prepared for rough weather moving in this afternoon, then be prepared for a more scary situation come Wednesday evening…trick or treaters! ^^^^HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!!^^^^^ Be safe.

Pete

Storm to lash east coast…10/27/12

In case you havn’t heard, there is a storm coming! With the advancements in social media these days, and people carrying iPhones, it seems as if everyone knows what’s going on every minute of the day. In a case like this, I would think this is a good thing having people communicate with one another to better prepare themselves for the storm. This is especially true for vulnerable areas susceptible to coastal flooding.

In last week’s blog, I talked about the possibility of a severe storm hitting the east coast. It is now is clear that a hurricane once called Sandy, will transform itself into a massive extratropical cyclone, and lash the east coast with hurricane force winds, coastal flooding, and even feet of heavy wet snow! Don’t worry, the snow is going to be confined to the high mountains of West Virginia, and some parts of Pennsylvania.

After what seemed like months of tranquil weather across New England, Mother Nature is about to unleash a storm that will affect millions of people across the eastern seaboard, from Maine to Florida. Looking at the latest computer models, it appears as if the state of New Jersey is going to bear the brunt of the massive storm. However, because of a strong area of high pressure anchored over eastern Canada, and the strong low pressure developing to our south, the pressure gradient is going to tighten significantly over southern New England, bringing storm force, to perhaps even hurricane force wind gusts to east coast Massachusetts. Because the storm will make landfall far to our south, the heaviest rains will be falling in the mid-atlantic region, where 4 to 8″ of rain may fall.

Of more importance, is going to be the coastal flooding due to the storm surge. As the storm moves from east to west, it will bring a storm surge of possibly up to 10 ft to the north of the center. This means people who live near the ocean anywhere from the south coast of Long Island and up into New York City should be evacuating now! This storm could be the storm that New York City had feared happening, much like Katrina was for New Orleans!

So when does the storm start and what affects can we expect here in New England? Expect the storm to increase in intensity during tomorrow night. The peak of the storm will be from midday Monday to around daybreak on Tuesday. Thereafter, things will slowly improve during the day on Tuesday. Because there are so many aspects to the storm, I will break things down by different locations in New England:

Coastal 

If you live near the ocean (north and south shore), batten down the hatches! This is where the worst of the storm will be felt. Expect winds to begin to freshen from the northeast during the day tomorrow, possibly reaching up to 30 m.p.h. by nightfall. Overnight, winds will continue to increase whistling in from the northeast at 30 to 40 m.ph. sustained. Monday is when things really become dangerous. Expect squalls of heavy rain to lash the coast, with winds increasing to storm force by late in the day. These winds will be howling out of the east at 40 to 70 m.p.h. with gusts possibly up to 80 m.ph.! With these type of winds, expect moderate to perhaps even major coastal flooding. This storm will be very dangerous, as the peak of the storm will coincide with astronomical high tides…as it will be a full moon Monday night. Expect evacuations and widespread power outages.

Inland

For people who live inland, this storm will also have a major impact. With Irene last year, many remembered the torrential rains that accompanied the storm. This storm will be remembered for the near hurricane force winds. With many of the leaves on the trees here in eastern Massachusetts, expect widespread power outages, with many tree limbs and whole trees snapping onto power lines. One quick tip would be to fill plastic baggies with water and freeze them overnight to make ice packs in case you do lose power, so your food will last longer. We can expect winds to range between 40 and 70 m.ph. during the peak of the storm. For people living well inland, and up into New Hampshire, you too can expect similar damaging wind gusts, and rainfall amounts of between 2 and 4″.

Cape Cod

Because you will be closest to the storm, the Cape may be hit the hardest. Expect major beach erosion and coastal flooding, especially if you live on the south side of the Cape, right up to Chatham. Here too, you can expect hurricane force wind gusts (possibly up to 75 m.p.h.) and widespread power outages.

Well that’s about it for now! I will post on my usual time with another update Monday morning. In the meantime, be prepared for possibly dangerous conditions across the city of Boston, most of southern Maine and New Hampshire, and especially along coastal areas come Monday. All I can say at this point, is be prepared for the worst, and pray for the best outcome. Feel free to contact me through FB, or e-mail me at info@hrappliance.com  if you have any questions regarding this storm!

Pete

Stormy future possible…10/22/12

So far, 2012 has been an uneventful year for weather here in New England. The only story making big headlines so far this year, has been the unprecedented warm temperatures we’ve been experiencing.  This year has been averaging out to be one of the warmest years on record here in Boston. All of this may change one week from today. When dealing with specific forecasts, I generally don’t like to give forecasts that go out more than a week. Too many things can change. Right now, I’m not forecasting another pre Halloween snowstorm, however a major coastal storm could be in the works come next week.

Like I said earlier, this has been a very quiet year weatherwise around here. After all of the blizzards, floods, tornadoes and windstorms of 2011, Mother Nature has given us a break for a while. That being said, this is New England, we should be prepared for just about anything, at anytime. So after a long lull in the etreme weather patterns as of late, things may be starting to cook again!

So why am I talking about a possible storm that still may be close to a week away? Well, if you study the weather, sometimes the atmosphere begins to “set things up” in preperation for a big event. We can see these things, thanks to the high powered numerical computer models we have at our disposal today. In addition, meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts such as myself, have learned a great deal about the atmosphere, oceans, and teleconnections that can tell us what kind of weather may be headed our way, sometimes weeks in advance!

So what’s going on that has meteorologists concerned? Looking at the current weather maps, one would say not much is going on. This is one of Mother Nature’s oldest trick in the book. What may look calm and uneventful right now, lulling you into a sense of security, may turn into meteorologic mayhem come next week! Let’s get to the player’s on the field. There will be three things happening at the end of this week that may, or may not join together to cause a significant storm.

First, believe it or not, a tropical storm will be forming in the caribbean, then moving north, east of Florida, possibly strengthening into Hurricane Sandy. Next, a deep trough, or pocket of very cold air for this time of the year, will begin diving down towards the east coast by this weekend. Third, the North Atlantic Oscilation will be heading negative at the same time. The N.A.O. also known as “The Greenland Block” is a important factor in our winters here in New England. When this goes into a  negative state, it blocks storms from moving too quickly, and can cause severe storms to strike New England, with storm force winds and cold temperatures. If the block is in the right position, it can sometimes track storms in a retrograde motion, moving from east to west, instead of from west to east. Some computer models, have been showing all of these ingredients coming together, hitting the east coast with a storm of historic proportions starting this Sunday.

So what does this mean for New England? One scenerio, develops the storm off the southeast atlantic coast, then pushes it into the mid-atlantic, as possibly a hurricane, or hybrid type of storm. This would leave us on the northern edge of the storm with some winds and squally rains. Another scenerio, one that is far more dangerous for us, brings the storm up the coast, and lashes New England with an early season nor’easter, with high winds and flooding rains.

In addition, if the cold air were to get captured by this whole vortex, then heavy wet snow would have to be introduced into the equation in the northern and western mountains. A situation like this shows up on the weather maps, maybe once every fifty years… very unusual indeed. Whatever the case, I will update this blog with this potential serious weather event sometime at the end of this week.

With the potential of a storm with high wind coming, I would try to enjoy the peak fall foliage as much as you can this week! This is the week when peak colors will move into the city of Boston, and points off to the south. If this storm hits, the wind may strip many of the leaves off the trees a bit prematurely, so enjoy the nice weather this week to view the colors!

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. Despite the storm threat, I will give this another 7 out of 10. If a storm were to threaten New England, it will not be until the very end of this forecast period.  I am expecting some fine fall weather this week. For the rest of your Monday, look for seasonable temperatures, with highs mainly in the lower 60’s, under mostly sunny skies. It will be dry and chilly tonight, with lows in the 30’s and lower 40’s. There will be some frost tonight in the suburbs.

Tuesday should feature increasing clouds, with highs in the lower 60’s again. There may be some light rain moving across the area tomorrow night, with lows in the 40’s. Wednesday looks like a cool, damp day, with highs mainly in the 50’s. It will not be heavy rain, but just enough to make it wet, especially in the morning.

Watch for sunnier weather to move back in for your Thursday and Friday, with highs mainly in the lower 60’s. Right now, Saturday looks to be the pick of the week, with partly sunny weather, and highs possibly hitting 70 again! After that, things may begin to deteriorate. Look for ocean winds to cool temperatures back into the 50’s on Sunday, with the chance of rain moving into the area by late in the day. Sunday night and Monday may turn quite stormy with gale force winds and heavy rain. I will update this forecast later in the week.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my final fall foliage report of the season. I will also review the month of October as well as preview what November may bring us. I will also have a new feature this year, as I will give a preliminary winter forecast, before the official forecast is released the third week of November. In the meantime, it’s getting to be that time of year when we should be preparing for just about anything here in New England. Hopefully, next week will prove to be more of a  treat rather than a trick!

Pete

It’s all about the temperature…10/15/12

This time of year, everyone seems to be talking about the weather. This is good for me because I love to talk about the weather! This past Friday night, much of the region received their first frost of the season. As forecasted, temperatures went at or below freezing, essentially ending the growing season for southern New England. The only exception where temperatures hovered just above freezing was right at Logan airport and some parts of the Cape.  So far, things are moving along just about right on schedule as far as the fall timetable goes. This is about exactly the time of year we should expect the growing season to end here in southern New England. If you live in the city neighborhoods of Boston, it may have been a little premature by a couple of weeks. All things considered equal, frost didn’t arrive in Boston until around Thanksgiving last year!

At a family gathering yesterday, many were asking me about my thoughts for the upcoming winter. My official forecast for the upcoming winter will not be published until around the third week of November, however, I am planning a preliminary release around Halloween this year. It’s still a little early, but I am fairly confident, for what I see so far, is that it looks like we are in for a more active winter this year. At this point, I’ll be on the conservative side here, and saying that it looks like a winter with average, or normal amounts of snow and cold. My thoughts may change on this by the time Halloween comes, and especially when the official forecast comes out in November.

So what is normal? Well, this may be all relative in how you look at it. Normal for one person, may be catastrophic to another when talking weather. When talking snow, normal snowfall taken at Logan airport in Boston averages about 44″ per year. This number increases dramatically when one travels anywhere to the north, west or even to the southwest of the airport. Many of Boston’s suburbs average between 50 and 60″ of snow per season. Because of the non-winter last year, this may feel more harsh than usual.

As we move deeper into fall, temperatures become an increasingly important factor in determining what kind of winter we are going to have this year. Many forecasters like to look at the temperatures in October to get an idea. For myself, it’s November temperatures that tell the truth. If temperatures are 2 degrees or higher above normal in November, the chances of having below normal amounts of snow for the winter is about a 90% chance. On the other hand, if November ends up close to normal, or at normal or just slightly below within 1 degree…watch out! Chances are about 90% sure that the area will end up above, possibly even well above normal amounts of snow for the season! This is especially true for temperatures taken at the official station at Boston’s Logan airport.

In conjunction with the temperature, I also keep track as to when the first freezing temperature (32 degrees), occurs at Logan airport. Over the years, it has become apparent to me that when that temperature is reached around the average date, which is around October 24th, the better the chance for a snowier winter. If this date is delayed, winter usually gets off to a slow start, and snowfall tends to be less in those years. Last year, for exmple, the first 32 degree reading did not happen until Thanksgiving, a full 5 weeks later than normal, and you know what happened after that!

In addition to temperatures, I also keep a close eye on precipitation trends during the autumn months, ocean temperatures, volcanic activity, sun spot cycle, acorn production, squirrel activity, and my all time favorite…geese flying south! So you can see, it’s quite the list of ingredients that go into the pot to try and crack Mother Nature’s code!

So how is the fall foliage extravaganza coming along? While traveling just north of Boston yesterday, I was pleased to see the colors were as vivid as advertised. With the frost the other night, look for a brilliant burst of color to move into the city right in time for our peak time. Peak color typically happens around Halloween in Boston. However this year, it appears to be a little ahead of schedule, so watch for the color wave to move into the city next week from the 22nd to the 28th. There will still be color right into the first week of November, but expect it to fade quickly after that.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, due to the milder temperatures on the way, and more sunny days. Expect Indian Summer conditions for the rest of your Monday, with clouds mixed with sun and temperatures closing in on 70! Look for showers to move through the area tonight, with somewhat humid conditions, lows will mainly be in the 50’s. Tuesday will be cooler, with highs mainly in the 50’s, with a gusty west wind, it will feel a little chilly at times. It will be on the chilly side tuesday night, with lows mainly in the 30’s in suburbia, to mid 40’s in urban areas. Watch for a mixture of sun and clouds for Wednesday and Thursday, it will  a bit above normal, with highs mainly in the mid to perhaps upper 60’s. The only exception, is if you live near the ocean, where temperatures may hold near 60 due to an onshore wind. Expect similar weather to continue for friday. It may turn out to be a warmer day, with highs in the lower 70’s! At this point, computer models are showing a significant rainstorm moving through New England this weekend. It looks like rain may move into the area during Saturday, and continue into Sunday morning. It will be somewhat cooler with highs in the lower 60’s. 

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know if more indian Summer weather will be on the way heading into the end of October. I will also have another fall foliage report. Next week, I will also talk about a curreent weather event happening right now. As a reminder, you can always contact me directly at info@hrappliance.com with any questions you may have about the weather or climate. In the meantime, keep an eye to those temperatures, it may mean the difference as to what size shovel you may need for this winter!

Pete

Frost…then Indian Summer? 10/8/12

Happy Columbus Day! When I was younger, I always remembered the first chill of autumn typically occurring around Columbus Day. I always looked forward getting together with my friends for a exciting game of tackle football. Last year, Columbus Day weekend was anything but fall like, as New England experienced an unprecedented 3 day weekend which featured record high temperatures well up into the 80’s, and brilliant blue skies for all three days. With weather like that, you had a feeling that the upcoming winter may turn out to be on the mild side! Even this year, Saturday turned out to be very warm, with temperatures soaring close to 80 degrees in many locations, only to plummet back into the 50’s yesterday! So far, this fall has been averaging a little warmer than normal, but nothing close to as warm as it was last year.

So how are we doing with fall foliage? Typically, Columbus weekend is prime viewing for viewing peek fall colors across central New England. Unlike last year, fall foliage appears to right on schedule, if not a little a little ahead. In addition, colors have been much more vivid this year. If you take a drive anywhere along the Rt. 2 corridor west of Boston, or even some of the smaller highways to the southwest of Boston, you will run into some spectacular foliage. If you can’t take a drive and you live inside of Rt. 128 and I95, peek fall colors will sweep into the coastal plain the last 10 days of October this year.

Spending some time with friends and family this past weekend, I was asked when should we expect our first frost, and if we can expect any Indian Summer this year! Sticking to my forecast of fairly average temperatures this fall, many of us can expect our first frost coming up towards next weekend. This is a little later than average, but nothing too unusual. I’m expecting temperatures to fall into the 20’s and 30’s this Friday night and Saturday morning across most of New England. The exception may be locations such as Logan airport and the immediate coastline of southeastern Massachusetts including  the Cape. These areas typically don’t reach 32 degrees until the end of October or early November, due to the warming influence of the ocean.

After we receive our first frost, then we can start talking about Indian Summer. Indian Summer is a phenomina which occurs in the northeast after temperatures fall to 32 degrees or lower. This is a period when the jet stream temporarily relaxes and lifts to the north, allowing warm southwesterly winds and clear blue skies to encompass the area. Looking at the long range charts, after we have the frosty conditions this Friday night, our best chance of Indian Summer looks like it might be during the week of  Ocober 15th through the 21st. That’s not to say that we may not get any more Indian Summer into November, but I’m thinking this fall temperatures are going to average closer to normal compared to last year, so expect more periods of colder weather. In the short term, after the milder weather next week,   chillier weather will be settling back into New England for the last two weeks of the month.

Now for your weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, less foggy and damp weather, but still not perfect. Expect clouds to be on the increase for the rest of your Columbus Day, it will be on the cool side, with highs mainly in the 50’s. Tonight may feature some areas of showers moving into the area, along with some fog, lows will mainly be in the 40’s.

If you live south of Boston, watch for periods of rain and drizzle on Tuesday, along with a chilly northeast wind. If you live in Boston and to the north and west, there may be a few showers from time to time, but I am not expecting a washout at this point. Highs will mainly be in the 50’s. Look for areas of fog and drizzle to continue Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday morning, before skies begin to brighten. Highs may be close to 60 on Wednesday.

Thursday should feature mainly sunny weather with highs in the very low 60’s. There may be some scattered showers moving through on Friday afternoon, followed by a cold shot of air for Friday night and early Saturday. Watch for the furnaces to click on as temperatures fall into the 20’s and 30’s throughout New England. Expect the growing season to end for many areas away from the ocean by 5 miles or more. At this point, it looks like a nice fall weekend coming, with sunny skies, and milder afternoons, with highs in the 50’s on Saturday, and possibly the low to mid 60’s on Sunday.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my third fall foliage report, as wee track the color wave moving south. I will also talk about some of my secrets I use in planning my forecast for the upcoming winter. My official forecast won’t come out until the third week in November, but I am planning on releasing a preliminary forecast around Halloween. In the meantime, get ready for Jack frost visiting a town near you this week, and then possibly Indian Summer next week, all of which are annual New England events to get to winter!

Pete

More rain on the way…10/1/12

As if it hasn’t rained enough the past few day’s, more wet weather appears to be on the way for the middle part of this week. Sorry about the unexpected cold, rainy weather at the end of last week into the weekend. Fortunately, the clouds broke just enough to catch a glimpse of the beautiful full Harvest moon last night!

As stated in previous blogs, we have been undergoing large scale global changes in the upper air weather patterns over the last few months, leading to some unpredictable weather recently. The Greenland Block, which was in the positive phase nearly all of last winter and spring, has been deeply negative since about the middle of the summer now. I’m stating this right now…that if this pattern should persist into the upcoming months, we will have one heck of a winter on the way. My official winter forecast does not come out until November, but as always, I will give many clues to what I may be thinking several times before then. Until then, we should expect unpredictable, and at times, extreme weather patterns to return to the United States, especially the northeast region (New England), beginning in November.

It’s time to review the month of September, and preview what October has in store for us this year. As it turned out, September actually ended up to average very close to normal, if not a bit below, temperature wise. The majority of the month tended to be on the dry side, until the soaking rains of this past weekend,  brought us close to normal for precipitation. Some areas got well above the normal amount of rain for the month. All in all, this is what you would expect for September weather here in New England this month. Plenty of sunny mild day’s, along with many clear, cool nights.

So what about October? This is a true transition month from summer to fall. We typically start out the month in the upper 60’s for highs, and end up deducting 10 degrees into the upper 50’s by Halloween. This is the month when many areas of southern New England experience their first frosts, and end to the growing seasons. October tends to be one of our driest months of the year across New England, with around 3″ of precipitation falling anually. Notice how I said precipitation and not just rain. Yes, it can snow in New England during October…remember last year?? A couple of things to remember, one, snow is the exception, not the rule in October. And two, snow in October does not necessarily mean a bad winter is on the way. Last year, we had a significant snow in many areas at the end of October, only to be followed by one of the warmest and least snowy winter on record!

Many experts and in the meteorology media outlets are calling for a warmer than normal October this year. I  disagree with this. There will be times of mild weather, but I am also expecting  episodes of colder weather, bringing frosts and chilly weather right to the coast this year. In the end, I’m expecting another month of near normal temperatures, with somewhat above normal precipitation. One thing to keep in mind, this is not the same pattern as last year. We are transitioning into a winter which is going to be much different from last year.

Along with the cooler weather, October is the month to view the spectacular fall foliage across all of New England. With the perfect September weather, colors are beginning to explode across the north country! You can expect very colorful conditions if you travel to the Green Mountains of Vermont, or the White Mountains of New Hampshire this weekend. Look for very good color in the interior and uplands of Maine as well.

I am expecting  much brighter colors this year across New England. Look for the color wave to move south across New England as we move through the month of October. Peak colors do not reach inside Rt. 128 and I95 until the last week of October because of the ocean and urban heat island effect. However, because of this modification, areas along the coast tend to view the beautiful colors the longest, many years extending into the first couple of weeks into November. Needless to say, if you travel anywhere to the north and west of Boston this Columbus Day weekend, your sure to find at least some pockets of fine fall foliage!

Now for your weekly outdoor autumn activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. Expect the nicest weather to be today and then again on Friday. Look for partly sunny weather for the rest of your Monday. It will on milder, with highs near 70. Tonight will feature increasing high clouds, look for a possible halo around the moon. The saying goes, “halo around the moon, rain or snow soon.” It won’t be too cold tonight, with lows mainly in the 40’s and 50’s.

Tuesday will be a mostly cloudy day (Happy birthday to my niece Olivia!), with some showers moving into the area by late in the day, highs will reach into the lower 70’s. Watch for rainy, damp weather to move into the area for tomorrow night and a good portion of Wednesday. It will be on the mild side, with lows in the 50’s and highs in the lower 70’s on Wednesday.

Look for leftover damp weather to possibly persist into Thursday morning, then skies should try and brighten thereafter. It will continue to be on the mild side, with highs in the lower 70’s again. Friday should be a fine early October day, with sunny weather, and mild temperatures, with highs in the lower to mid 70’s!

Right now, Saturday looks like it will feature more clouds than sun, and a little cooler, highs in the upper 60’s.  There may be a period of rain moving through the area for late Saturday night and Sunday, with temperatures trending back into 60’s. For Columbus Day, I’m expecting clearing skies, with temperatures in the lower 60’s.  Sorry, no 85 degrees and sunny like last year!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know if we have any frosty nights on the way. I will also have another fall foliage report. Iwill also talk about why I think this winter will be so different from last year. In the meantime, it won’t be long until my heading will be saying, “more snow on the way”…so be prepared!

Pete

A more seasonable Autumn ahead…9/24/12

Perhaps you don’t remember the weather of autumn 2011. Let me refresh your memory. Last year was the warmest autumn ever recorded in modern records throughout New England. What were the consequences of that? Well, for one, there was no fall foliage last year. I remember, the leaves on the trees went from green, to brown, then they just fell off close to Thanksgiving…it was very disappointing. An official frost did not occur in the city of Boston until sometime in the beginning of December, a good month behind normal. In fact, this too set a record for the latest 32 degree temperature at logan airport. With such a slow start, people who love the winter season were extremely disappointed last year, as the least snowiest and warmest winter on record settled into the region. It was also one of the driest winters in years. So what about this year? In today’s blog, I will give you a “normal” progression of events as we move towards winter.

This past Saturday, the autumnal equinox arrived, where the day and night is of equal time. From this point forward, the days will begin to shorten, until the winter solstice arrives on December 21st. This process will be exasperated when we set the clocks back one hour on November 4th. With the longer nights, frost, and the end of the growing season becomes a natural progression of events. Many areas of northern New England has already experienced a frost.

On average, frost occurs in Boston’s suburbs the first week of October. The city of Boston, officially at Logan airport, can expect their first 32 degree reading around November 7th. Neighborhoods just inland from the ocean, however, receive frost much earlier. Unlike last year, I expect frost to end the growing season right about on these dates just given this year.

With the cooler temperatures, we can then turn our attention to many peoples favorite, the arrival of fall foliage. I do expect this year to be much more colorful than last year. Maybe not the best, but much better than last year. Despite the drought of last winter and spring, I do believe we have had just enough rain over the summer to keep the trees healthy enough to bring out the beautiful colors. In addition, the weather so far in September has been ideal, with mild sunny days, and cool, crisp nights. Now we just need a couple of frosty nights to really start the colors to blossom.

As is typical, peak colors start way up in northern New England first, sometime at the very end of September. As we move into October, this color wave progresses south and east, arriving in the Boston area the last week of October. Because of the warming influence of the Atlantic Ocean, peak colors typically arrives in the city of Boston around Halloween.

As we move deeper into autumn, we then look to when our first snowflakes will arrive. Typically, it does not snow in october, but as we saw last year, it certainly can in some years! Northern New England and the hilly terrain is no stranger to snow in October. However, as we saw last year, snow in October usually is not a sign of a tough winter ahead.

As we move into November, much of New England should be prepared for their first taste of wintery weather. Although it hasn’t snowed in Boston for several years now in November, we typically do experience our first snowfall during November, many times around Thanksgiving. With the cooler temperatures this fall, I am expecting snow to fall in many areas of New England, including Boston, this November.

Now for you weekly autumn outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10, more fine fall weather ahead! Expect mostly sunny skies for the rest of your Monday, with highs mainly in the upper 60’s. Watch for clear skies tonight and chilly temperatures! Look for widespread 40’s, with some interior valley locations in the upper 30’s!

Tuesday will feature the nice weather to continue, with sunny skies and low humidity, highs will be near 70 (Happy birthday to my nephew Nick!). It won’t be as cool Tuesday night, but still expect temperatures to mainly be in the 40’s, expect low 50’s in urban areas.

Expect a few scattered showers to move through on Wednesday, but I am not expecting a washout at this point, highs will be in the very low 70’s. Watch for sunny, dry weather to return for both Thursday and Friday, with cool days, and chilly nights.

Saturday may feature sunny skies to start, with increasing clouds during the afternoon, with temperatures near 70. Unfortunately, I do not believe we will be able to view the full Harvest moon Saturday night. Maybe this will change? At this point, Sunday looks wet, with showers much of the time, and temperatures in the 60’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review the month of September, and preview what we may have in store for us weatherwise for October. I will also have my first fall foliage forecast! In addition, I will either have weather history, or a weather current events segment. In the meantime, time to get those pumpkins, set up a fall foliage trip, and to enjoy all of the benefits of living in New England during the fall!