A touch of fall…9/10/12

The official start of autumn is still nearly two week’s away, but you’ll know the seasons are changing here in New England over the next couple of day’s. However, unlike last week, when the humidity was like an unwelcome guest  that would not leave, this week will feature New England weather at its finest, with clear blue skies, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures. Many feel September offers the best weather of the year here in New England. And after the weather coming up this week, who could argue? September is a month that often brings the best of both world’s to us. It’s a time when scorching summer heat retreats to our south, and cooler, drier air from the north begins to infiltrate into our region. This combination generally brings us mild temperatures without too many extremes.

So far, this September has lived up to its reputation. After the first week brought leftover heat and humidity from the summer, a distinct chill will be in the air to greet you off to school or work for the next couple of mornings. It is usually during the second week of September that we begin to feel that first nip to the air here in New England, and this year will be no different.

Unlike last year, which was the warmest falls on record, I’m expecting a more typical type of fall here in New England. Expect mild periods to be puncuated by cooler ones. As we move deeper into late October and especially November, expect cool shots, to be replaced by chilly ones, then finally cold ones, as we head towards later November. Because the official start of fall is still a couple week’s away, I’m going to delay the fall timetable for New England until next week.

In today’s current weather events, I would like to talk about something wich occurred over the weekend. There is a weather myth out there that I would like to clarify with folks. Some people still believe that tornadoes do not strike populated city areas. Do me a favor, and go onto YouTube and type in New York city tornado. Over the weekend, not one, but two tornadoes struck New York, specifically Queens and Brooklyn. They were not severe, but they were legit tornadoes, with a funnel cloud, causing significant damage. Fortunately, there were no fatalities. The point is, tornadoes do not discriminate. If the conditions are right, they can occur anywhere! If the National Weather Service issues a tornado watch for your area, be vigilant, and prepare to take shelter immediatley! If they issue a warning, go to the basement. If you don’t have a basement, the next safest place, believe it or not, is in your bathtub!

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to do a brief tropical report. Today, September 10th is an important date because it marks the peak day of the Atlantic hurricane season. On this date, we usually have the most tropical cyclones either threatening land, or are churning out in the open sea. Right now, we have Leslie, which is a strong tropical storm heading north towards Newfoundland. This storm has been sending dangerous surf towards the New England coastline all weekend. The other storm is Hurricane Michael, which is no threat to anyone at this time. According to NOAA, this has been an above average year for tropical storm activity, and they expect 2 to 4 more storms to develop, with possibly one more hurricane striking the U.S. at some point between now and the end of October, so we shall see.

Now for your outdoor weekly activity forecast. As advertised, this is going to be a splendid week. I will give this week a 9 out of 10. If not for the uncertainty for next Sunday, I may have given a 10 out of 10.

For the rest of your Monday, expect sunshine, mixed with some fair weather clouds, highs will be in the mid 70’s. Watch for clearing skies tonight, with the clear skies and light winds, it will be ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Temperatures will fall into the 40’s regionwide, except low 50’s in urban areas.

For the period Tuesday through Saturday, expect sunny, dry weather. Temperatures will be cool to start, with highs in the low 70’s Tuesday, mid 70’s Wednesday, then low to mid 80’s Thursday and Friday. Temperatures may settle back into the upper 70’s by Saturday with a seabreeze. Night time lows will be very chilly Tuesday night, with some deep interior valley locations falling into the upper 30’s, however most locations will fall into the 40’s, which is cold enough! Lows will warm back up into the 50’s and lower 60’s late week.

As for Sunday, some computer models are hinting at a few showers, with temperatures in the low 70’s. At this point, I would not cancel any plans, it does not look like a washout.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your New England fall timetable, complete with a fall foliage report, first frosts, and first snows of the season! I will also dicuss the possibilty of any Indian Summer weather for this fall. In the meantime, Mother Nature has been kind to us so far. Soon, a touch of fall, may very well turn into the bite of winter!

Pete

What a Finish! 9/3/12

Happy Labor Day to all! I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy the fine weather we had over the long holiday weekend! I’m glad the forecast turned out better than expected to finish out the summer. I spent the Labor Day weekend with my good friends up in southern Maine, where the weather had a touch of fall in the air during the overnight hours. I know, fall officially doesn’t arrive for a few more weeks, but remember, meteorological fall has already begun on September 1st!

So does this mean summer is over? The short answer to this question is no! With that being said, I do not expect a repeat of last years warmest autumn on record! This year, I am expecting a more seasonal autumn to unfold. For the month of September, I’m expecting weather to be similar to what we experienced this past summer, warm spells, punctuated with cooler periods, averaging out to be slightly warmer than normal. Look for precipitation to average around the norm of 3″ or so.

Expect this trend to continue for the remainder of the fall, with generally near normal temperatures and precipitation. As we move deeper into November, the outlook becomes a bit more uncertain. Right now, I’m expecting chillier days on the way, as we head into a much different winter than what we experienced last year. My official winter forecast will not be published until November, but I will give you plenty of clues as to what I’m thinking well before then!

As stated earlier, all is not lost with summer weather. Some of New England’s finest weather occurs during September. Yes, the days are beginning to shorten, and the sun angle is not as high, but I believe we will continue to have comfortable weather right through the month. Some of the benefits of September, is enjoying nice warm, sunny days, without the stifling humidity.

With the cooler nights on the way, and the shorter days, you will begin to see some of the leaves begin to change color across the area. Peak fall colors begin up in the northern most parts of New England by the end of September, but does not reach inside of Rt 128 and I95 until the end of October. With the cooler autumn on the way, I’m expecting a much more colorful display of the leaves than what we had last year. As we move deeper into fall I will keep everyone updated with the progress of the fall foliage.

Before I get to the forecast, I quickly wanted to review summer 2012. Overall, I would say the summer forecast issued last spring turned out very well. Despite periods of dry weather, we ended up with near normal amounts of precipitation throughout New England. As for temperatures, as forecasted, it did turn out to be a warmer than normal summer, with July being the hottest, and August being the muggiest.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. With Isaac’s remnants moving through, I will give this week a 7 out of 10. Expect a pleasant evening, with some increasing clouds overnight, it won’t be as cool as recent nights, with lows in the lower 60’s, upper 50’s across the countryside.

Look for clouds to thicken tomorrow with some rain showers possibly moving into the area by days end. It will begin to fell more humid out, with highs in the mid 70’s. Watch for showers to increase in coverage Tuesday night, with heavier downpours moving into the area late at night.

Wednesday will start off with some heavy rain during the morning, then some showers may linger during the afternoon. Overall, expect a wet, and muggy day, with highs in the 70’s once again. Expect the sun to return with warmer weather by Thursday and Friday, with highs in the lower 80’s. Expect the warm weather to continue into Saturday, however, there may be some showers moving through the area later in the day into Saturday night. If this system is progresses through, Sunday will feature the sun returning with temperatures cooling back into the 70’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new tropical update. I will also talk about the fall timetable here in New England. In the meantime, as we close out another beautiful summer here in New England, we await the changes that lie ahead,and all the beauty that the next season will bring.

Pete

Summer 2012 to continue…8/27/12

As far as summers go, summer 2012 has to rank right up there with one of the best. It may not have been the hottest on record, but it has been a consistantly warm summer. Aside from a bit of a rough beginning in June, once the summer solstice, it was game on. I would not rank it as high as summer 2010, but for my standards, it’s been very good.

Not to boast, but this summer’s forecast seems to have worked out very well! When I was reviewing the possible patterns for the summer, I said to myself if these airmasses work in conjunction together, it might just be the perfect combination to bring us a perfect summer. As it turned out, it did just that! The savage heat from the midwest penetrated just enough into New England to supply us with brief periods of hot weather, only to be punctuated with pleasantly warm dry weather.

In addition to the warm weather, we were fortunate enough to have several episodes of summertime showers and thunderstorms to keep our lawns and gardens watered. With the adequate moisture being supplied across most of New England, I believe this will be setting us up for a beautiful fall foliage season this fall. As we move into September, I will report the progress of the upcoming fall foliage season to everyone.

So, what’s next? Well, as the title of the blog says, I am happy to report that summer 2012 is not quite done with us yet! I was taking some time off this past weekend down the Cape, and was treated to one of the best weekends of the year weatherwise.In addition to the fine weather, I also witnessed two of the best sunsets of the summer, one on Saturday evening, then another just last night. I don’t know if you have noticed, but this summer has had some of the best sunsets I have ever seen, practially on a daily basis! Some people say, Pete, why don’t you go somewhere and take a real vacation? Well in my opinion, I believe we have all the charm and beauty right here in New England. Why go anywhere else?

Getting back to the weather for a bit. We all know how perfect mother Nature likes to be. We witnessed that first hand this summer, with a scorching 97 degree day exactly on the first day of summer!  Yes, this was a good sign for those of you who enjoy many day’s of hot weather during the summer months. Despite it being the last week of meteoroligical summer, I do believe that hot summery weather will make a return with a vengeance by the end of this week. In fact, we may have several encore performances possibly right up until the autumnal equinox, on September 22nd. On that day, expect a definitive nip to the air as Mother Nature will be right on cue this year, ushering in the fall season.

So what’s going on with Isaac? In the tropical outlook today, I will discuss the fate of Isaac, and also if there are any more storms to be concerned about. As of this morning, Isaac was still just barely below hurricane status, churning in the Gulf of Mexico, just west of southern Florida. The big news today, is that it appears as if the hurricane will be taking a more northwestly track, heading more towards New Orleans, Louisianna. Fortunately for New Orleans, it looks like Isaac will only strengthen to a category one hurricane, with winds of up to 90 m.ph. Still, this is enough to cause some considerable damage to a city just recovering from Katrina 7 years ago. This is still a very dangerous situation. Hurricanes are very unpredictable, and have been known to strengthen or weaken unexpectedly, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. Look for Isaac to possibly strengthen into a borderline cat 2 hurricane with winds of up to 100 m.p.h as it moves just to the west of New Orleans on Wednesday morning. This will be enough to cause a multitude of problems to this city. Since Joyce has already formed, the next name on the list will be Kirk. There are some indications that another storm may form in the gulf, I will keep you updated with that possibility.

Now for your weekly summer vactation outdoor activity forecast. I am giving this week another 8 out of 10. It would of been higher if not for the uncertainty for the forecast for Labor Day itself. For the rest of your Monday, watch for mainly sunny weather, along with warm temperatures, with highs in the 80’s. Watch for clouds to increase by late today, with a cloudy sunset expected tonight. It will turn muggy tonight, along with the chance of scattered showers, mainly after midnight.

Look for  showers and possibly thunderstorms especially for Tuesday morning. In the afternoon, things may dry out a bit, but watch for one more shower during the afternoon. Tuesday night should be clear and noticeably drier, with lows mainly in the 50’s. There will be a touch of fall in the air come Wednesday morning, otherwise look for a cooler day, under mostly sunny weather, highs will mainly be in the 70’s.

Expect warmer weather with mostly sunny skies for Thursday, with highs back up into the 80’s. Watch hot weather to return friday, with highs reaching the lower 90’s for the last day of August. Also, look for our second full “sturgeon” moon of the month to brighten up the night sky on Friday night!

Expect very warm conditions under sunny weather for Saturday and Sunday! Highs may be close to 90 on Saturday and cool to the lower to mid 80’s on Sunday. At this point, computer models are showing the remnants of Isaac sweeping through the region on Labor Day, so I have to go for some tropical showers and muggy weather. Hopefully this will change!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review the month of August, and preview what September may bring us. I may also have a preview for the upcoming fall. I will also talk about a weather phenomina which happened on the beach I was on this past weekend. In the meantime, enjoy the final week of summer, as summer goes out as it came in with a blaze of glory on Friday!

Pete

Seasonable is reasonable…8/20/12

I’m pretty sure I used this heading before in one of my previous blogs. However, when I looked back and couldn’t find the same title to any of my posts.  Anyway, the heading for today’s blog is very appropriate for the week ahead. After a relentles siege of heat, humidity and tropical downpours, it appears as if the summer has settled into a pattern that’s just right for many. That’s not to say that we are done with the hot & muggy weather for the summer, it’s just that for this week, it looks like we will be getting a nice break. Warmer than normal weather may return next week for the last week of meteorological summer.

As many say, life is all about timing. When the weather this past weeknd may have ruined some people’s outdoor plans, it worked out just right for me! My weekend consisted of two fun outdoor events. One of which was the annual massive firework display down in Martha’s Vineyard. The other was the Bruce Springsteen concert down at Gillette stadium in foxborough, Ma. Sandwiched in between the two events were tropical downpours, were if the timing was just slightly off, would of made for a very soggy outcome. As it was, showers just finished before the concert, skies cleared, allowing for a good time to be had by all. If you have never seen Bruce Springsteen live in concert, I would strongly recommend trying to go see him!

Getting back to the weather. Over the weekend, with a slight chill in the air, many family members aked me if summer was over. The short answer to that question is no. There have been many years when we can get a chill in the air during the second half of August. It’s the natural progression of events. As hard as it is to believe, we are now moving towards autumn. We are losing sunlight on a daily basis, and the nights are growing longer. In higher latitudes, the progression is even faster. Cooler air masses begin to form, and sometimes spill into the New England. Every year is different. Last year, the weather was getting warmer as we moved towards fall, setting us up for one of the warmest winters on record.

So what about this year? Well, I do believe we have plenty more warm summer days ahead. However, as stated in earlier blogs, I believe we are in for a change in the pattern, sometime in October. This change will usher in a colder regime. This will be followed by a much different winter than what we experienced last winter. Of course my winter outlook doesn’t come out until November, but even at this early stage, I am beginning to see the differences from last year to this year. Suffice to say, if you are a fan of summer weather, and I know there are alot of you out there, enjoy the next four weeks of summer like weather, then be prepared for a more typical New England winter on the way.

Now for the tropical update. It may not be too tropical around here this week, but the tropic’s are beginning to heat up. If the experts are right, over the next month or so, the hurricane season will be shifting into high gear. Already, we have Isaac developing in the deep caribbean. This will be the next storm to watch. If computer models are correct, this may turn into our first major hurricane of the season. Where it goes is still subect for interpretation. However, current paths bring this storm through the caribbean, then slamming into Florida sometime next week. At this point, there is no storm on the horizon to threaten New England, other than maybe some rains. There is one computer model that has Isaac bypassing Florida on the east side. At that point the flooding rains could become an issue for New England sometime later next week. I will keep you posted for that possibility.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer vacation forecast. I will give this week a 8 out of 10. Even though there will be some cloudiness from time to time, it should remain fairly dry. Expect a mixture of clouds and sun for the rest of your Monday. It will be fairly warm today with highs in the lower 80’s. Look for a pleasant weather tonight. If you are heading to Gillette stadium to watch the Patriots, it will be dry, with temperatures in the 60’s.

Tuesday may feature more clouds than sun, with highs in the upper 70’s. There may be a few showers on Wednesday, as a storm passes us to the south, but I would not cancel any plans. Temperatures will once again be in the upper 70’s.

At this point, I am expecting more sun than clouds for the period Thursday through Sunday. Look for warmer temperatures, with highs mainly in the mid 80’s. All in all, it looks like it will be a pleasant week, with near normal temperatures and drier weather than what we’ve had recently.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have another tropical update, as well as your weather for the final week of meteorological summer. I will also have your exented outlook into the Labor Day holiday weekend! Yes, Labor Day is in two weeks! In the meantime, remember it’s the extremes that make the averages, so enjoy the seasonable is reasonable weather that we have for this week, next week may turn unreasonable!

Pete

Warm and wet ahead…8/13/12

Nothing is worse than hot, muggy weather. Unless, it’s hot and muggy weather with drenching downpours. Such was the case at the end of last week into this past weekend. With the humidity at oppressive levels, it doesn’t take much of a trigger mechanism in the atmosphere to unleash torrents of rain in short periods of time. Such was the case last Friday in areas just south of Boston, where some places picked up close to 3″ of rain…in less than an hour! This scenerio was repeated west of Boston yesterday, in the tiny town of Monson, where many roads were washed away due to the torrential rains.

Expect this pattern to continue, possibly for the rest of the month. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be a total washout! We still are in a very summery pattern, it’s just different than what we had for the first part of the summer.

While warm weather will continue for New England, this will not be the case in the midwest. After suffering through one of the hottest and driest summers on record, the new pattern will now bring them a taste of fall! Because of the configuration of the pattern, this fall weather will be in no hurry in getting here to New England. In fact, a premature battle of the seasons is brewing in the atmosphere.

While cool fall like air will be diving south into the middle of the country, warm, tropical air will be riding up the east coast into New England. The Bermuda High, anchored off of the east coast will flex its muscles and keep the cool air at bay, while sending more humid, warm weather up into New England. In this type of pattern, we can expect more muggy weather, along with additional threats of tropical flooding rains for parts of New England.

As mentioned in previous blogs, this type of pattern was anticipated for the second half of August. This is the type of pattern that we must  keep an eye out for tropical storms riding up the coast into New England. Currently, the hurricane season is pulsing. There has been a flare up of storms, only to dwindle because of dry air and wind shear. As the season further matures, the chance of a tropical sysytem developing near the east coast, then riding up into New England will increase into September. I will keep you updated if any development occurs. The next named storm in the Atlantic Ocean will be Gordan.

Keeping with the tropical theme, I would like to talk briefly about a phenomina which rarely occurs, but happened over the weekend. Last week we were following tropical storm Ernesto moving due west towards Mexico…as an Atlantic storm. Channel five’s Harvey Leonard speculated that Ernesto may have a chance to cross the mountains of Mexico, then re-emerg in the Pacific oceanas a new named storm! As it turns out, this is exactly what Ernesto did! He made the trek across the mountainous terrain, only to emerge into the Pacific Ocean and regain strength, to be re-named Hector!

Now for your weekly summer vacation and outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. Expect some nice weather, but also an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms. Expect very warm weather for the rest of today and tomorrow. Look for sunshine, along with some passing clouds, but no rain is anticipated. It will still be very warm, but with a little less humidity than the past few days, highs will be in the upper 80’s. Tonight will be a very pleasant summer night, with lows in the 60’s.

Watch for the humidity to be on the increase for Wednesday, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially from midday on. Highs will be in the lower 80’s. Expect sunnier weather to return for your Thursday, along with warm temperatures, highs mainly in the 80’s again. If you are down the Cape, clouds may linger for the better part of the day. 

It may turn hot on Friday, with increasing humidity levels again, with highs closing in on 90 degrees. Thunderstorms may threaten, but I believe will mainly affect areas north and west of Boston.

Look for tropical conditions for next weekend, with warm temperatures. At this point, a slow moving front may stall over new England, acting as a trigger point for areas of showers and tropical downpours.  Not everyone will get soaked, but expect to get wet at any given point, especially on Saturday. If the system moves a little quicker than expected, we may salvage a decent day on Sunday. I hope the forecast turns out better than what I am expecting!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor this tropical pattern that we are in, and see if any relief is in sight. I will also have a new weather topic to talk about. In the meantime, the high hair frizz alert remains in effect for us here in New England, I will let you know when we are in the clear…probably not until sometime in october!

Pete

It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity! 8/6/12

Living in New England, we’ve all heard the phrase, “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.” This could not of been more true for most of last week, and especially this past weekend, ughhh! Not only was it borderline very hot, but the levels of humidity were off the charts, even for New England standards. We were definitely in one of those Miami, Fla. climate regimes last week. In addition to the heat, a tropical like system unexpectedly charged up the coast last Tuesday night, soaking us with torrential downpours. This was followed on Wednesday afternoon by more torrential downpours here in the Boston area. You would think that the rain would have cooled off the air mass. But what followed was  absolutely atrocious. The dewpoint temperature, which is the temperature that measures the amount of moisture in the air, was hovering in the mid 70’s most of this past weekend. These are  levels that you would find only in the caribbean islands!

So what’s going on? Well it appears that the warm patterns which settled into the eastern part of the United States going back to last summer is raising all sorts of havoc. Once a persistant pattern settles in, it sometimes takes several seasons, if not years to break down. last winter, being one of the warmest and driest on record, was followed by one of the warmest springs, which then was followed by one of the hottest and driest summers on record. This is especially true just to our south and west. We have been lucky here in New England. Yes, the muggy weather has invaded our region, but we also have gotten episodes of heavy rains and cooler airmasses to give us a break.

This persistant pattern has allowed warmer than normal weather to dominate our region for a better part of a year now. Now that the summer season is maturing, the jet streams are relaxing and retreating to the north, allowing not only hotter weather, but also tropical muggy weather to stream up into New England unabated.

With the warm winter, ocean temperatures are sky rocketing off the New England coast. This warmer regime that we are in, has also been linked to the increase in the tick population, as well as mosquitos infected with the deadly West Nile virus. Warmer ocean water may also be one of the reasons for more Great White sharks off of our coast. Once rarely seen in our area, Great Whites are now becoming a tourist attraction off some beaches of the Cape! A man was even bitten by one last week swimming off a beach in Truro. He was extremeley lucky, as the shark let him go! This was the first shark attack in New England since a boy was killed by a Great White off of beach in Mattapoisett back in 1936.

Some say it’s the seals, but if the water wasn’t so warm, I don’t think there would be as many of these monsters around here. With the seal poulation growing, they just happened to find a good food source as well as warmer water. Now, when they migrate south in the winter, it appears as if they’re recruiting their friends when they come back north the following season. If you do go in the water, don’t go too deep, and whatever you do, don’t swim anywhere near seals!

Now for the tropical update. Much like last summer, we are susceptible for a tropical like storm to hit New England this year. The pattern is flowing up straight up from the tropics. With the above normal ocean temperatures, and the Bermuda high pressure area in the right position, we have to have our gaurd up!

There is no storm iminent, however there are a couple storms to talk about. Ernesto is off of Jamaica and is heading due west. This storm will hit Mexico possibly near Belize as a category 1 storm, then weaken over the mountains. Of more concern, is Florence. Once thought to be no threat to the United States, if Florence holds together, she could hit the east coast sometime next week. I will keep you updated with her, and any other tropical development. as we move deeper into hurricane season.

As warm as it has been around here, this is not true for other parts of the world. In today’s weather current events, I will briefly talk about a region where the snow from last winter may not melt off completely when the new snow season starts! Last winter, Anchorage , Alaska, like many areas in Alaska, had its snowiest season on record! Here’s the problem. After one of the coldest, snowiest winter seasons, summer never showed up! So… believe it or not, snow continues to be on the ground in the hills surrounding Anchorage. With summer quickly fading, snows from this upcoming season may accumulate on top of last winters snows. This is how glaciers are formed!

last week I mentioned how you soak up as much sun as you can from this point forward. Today actually marks the exact astrologic mid point of the summer. From this point forward, the earth will begin to tilt away from the sun at a much more rapid pace. We will be losing approximately 2 minutes of daylight per day, until we reach the autumnal equinox on the 22nd of September. From there on, we rapidly begin to lose even more daylight each day. That’s the bad news. The good news is that some of the long range computer models continue to forecast another very warm and dry fall for New England this year. I will keep you updated if there are any changes with that forecast!

Now for your summer outdoor activity vacation forecast. I will give this week another 7 out of 10. No surprise rainstorms tonight! Expect sunny and drier weather for the rest of your Monday. It will be very warm, with highs in the upper 80’s, but with much LOWER humidity levels! Tonight will be a summer delight, with clear skies and warm temperatures during the evening, giving way to cooler weather towards dawn, with lows in the 50’s across the countryside, to mid 60’s in urban areas.

Tuesday will be a another warm summer day, with mostly to partly sunny weather and warm temperatures. Highs will again be in the mid to upper 80’s. Tuesday night will be fair. Humidity levels will be a bit higher on Wednesday, with highs in the 80’s again. Expect fog across the Cape and Islands at night, with some low clouds forming elsewhere. For the Patriots first exhibition game on Thursday night, expect muggy conditions, with a chance of a shower. The rest of  your Thursday will be warm and muggy with bulding clouds.

Watch for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving through the area on Friday, with highs near 80. Next weekend is the Massachusetts state holiday tax weekend! Expect unsettled weather for Saturday. Not a complete washout, but there may be some showers early, then some thunderstorms late, with some sunshine in between. It will continue to be on the muggy side, with highs in the lower 80’s depending on how much sun we get.  Watch for clearing skies and drier weather for Sunday, with highs in the upper 70’s.

Well that’s about it for now! Next week’s blog may be a shortened version due to time restraints. Next week, I will focus what the rest of August looks like weatherwise, as well as have another tropical update. I may also have a new weather topic of the day. in the meantime, if you can’t take the anymore of this humidity, I still have some a.c.’s in stock! Otherwise, enjoy the upcoming summer weather, and don’t get bitten by any sharks out there!

Pete

Back to summer weather! 7/30/12

After a summer filled with so many nice days & weekends, the law of averages finally caught up to us this past weekend. Yes, we managed to squeek out a fairly decent day on Saturday here in eastern Massachusetts, but don’t say that to people living anywhere west of I495. In these locations, heavy showers and thunderstorms pelted the area with 2 to in some cases 4″ of rain! this wall of water finally made it into the Boston area late in the afternoon, resulting in a soggy end to the day.  The leftover moisture from this storm resulted in a very dull Sunday, with cool temperatures and no sunshine.

So where do we go from here? With July finishing up tomorrow, we look back to see what the weather was like, then we look forward to see what August may bring us. For the most part, the majority of July turned out to be a rather hot and dry month. Up until this past weekend, many areas in southern New England had less than an inch of rain, resulting in renewed talk of drought and water restrictions. Just like other times when I mention drought for our area in my blog, the weather gods seem to be listening, as the month ended up with close to averages for precipitation after this past weekends deluge. Despite the cooler weather the past few days, July will end up being a warmer than normal month, our third straight warm July!

With July finishing up tomorrow, we now look forward to August. In some respects, this summer has been very similar weatherwise to last summer. After a cooler than normal June, like last year, July turned warmer, and the trend seems to want to continue. Will this warm weather extend into the upcoming fall like last year? Some long range computer models are saying yes! If this is true, it could extrapolate into a another warm winter. This would make many people happy hearing this news (especially my sister!)  But, I’m getting way ahead of myself!  We have a ways to go before we start talking about the winter. With that being said, the pattern does look similar to last year. It looks like August will turn into another very warm month, with increasing amounts of humidity. I also expect frequent bouts of  heavy showers and thunderstorms, resulting in a wetter than normal month.

Keep in mind, this warm biased weather pattern has to break sometime. Personally, I don’t believe the long range computer models. I believe there will be a change, most likely in November, resulting in a much different winter than last. We are entering into a weak El Nino this fall. This means global patterns will be changing. I will keep everyone updated concerning this possible change as we move into the change of seasons.

So what else can we expect for August? Well, if you have vacation this week, I believe we will have a return to typical summer weather. This means warmer and more muggy conditions. Along with the increase in humidity, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday through Sunday. This will not be a washout, just some typical summertime storms.

In addition, watch for two full moons this month!  The first will be this week on Thursday, and the second will be on the last day of the month, on the 31st. This second full moon is also known as a “blue moon.” I looked up the meaning of a blue moon, and there was no clear cut definition of it. The one that made most sense to me was that because two full moons in one month is a rare event, they call it once in a blue moon. It also may have extended back into history with people actually seeing a blue moon when it was full. This was caused by smoke or dust particles in the air caused by forest fires. This made the moon appear blue for a couple of years!

The Farmer’s Almanac definition of a blue moon is having 4 full moons in a three month season, when typically you would have three. The native Indian name for the moon this month is a full “sturgeon” moon. This is for when people went fishing for sturgeon fish in the great lakes at night during the August full moon.

Now for your weekly summer vacation and outdoor activity forecast. I am calling for a 7 out of 10 this week. Expect beautiful weather for the rest of your Monday. It will remain sunny, light winds, and warm temperatures nearing 80 in most places. Watch for fair weather tonight, a great night to be outdoors. The beautiful weather will continue tomorrow, with perhaps some clouds later in the day. It should remain dry Tuesday night.

From the period Wednesday through Sunday look for warmer weather with increasing humidity. This means there may be some areas of low clouds and fog overnight for parts of the Cape. This will generally burn off by noontime each day. For the rest of us, expect temperatures to reach the mid to perhaps upper 80’s with muggy conditions. Watch for a chance of thunderstorms each afternoon, especially on Friday and Saturday. This will be true especially over the interior, west of Rt 128. As mentioned earlier, these will not be washout days. Similar weather is expected for Sunday.

Well, that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have a new tropical update, as it appears that the tropics may be coming to life! I will also discuss a current weather topic making news across the country. I will also discuss why it’s so important to soak up as much sunshine as you can during the month of August. In the meantime, enjoy summer’s return, at this point, we don’t know how many encore performances she has left in her!

Pete

Some changes this week…7/23/12

It was the week that was. As advertised, if you had vacation last week, the weather could not of gotten much better than that. Despite the midweek thunderstorms to break the heat, most people are commenting on how beautiful the weekends have been this summer.

I took advantage of the beautiful weather yesterday by spending the afternoon with good buddies of mine down at the Boston areas favorite local gem Nantasket Beach. The beach did not disappoint yesterday, with brilliant blue skies, acceptable water temperature, and a spectacular sunset to cap off the day! Speaking of sunsets, I don’t know if anyone else noticed, but we had several incredible sunsets this past week.

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. Don’t get me wrong, this week will not be a washout, but there are some weather changes we will have to go through. In fact, today is the first time in a couple weeks I had to look at the computer models to be able to get a better idea on some of the changes coming our way. The last couple of weeks have been pretty easy to forecast. I have always said, New England experiences climates from all around the world at one point or another during the course of a year…sometimes in a week! This past week for example started out with hot & muggy weather like Florida, only to turn cool and dry like that of Canada. I will have my weekly outlook shortly to explain some of these changes coming our way.

I read an article in U.S.A. Today newspaper the other day, that 64% of the country is under some form of a drought. This has been a growing problem starting back from last summer. This drought began in Texas last summer, and has been expanding across the whole country since. The dry, record warm winter of 2011-12 was followed by more dry, warm weather this past spring. The record warm spring has now been followed by one of the hottest, driest summers on record for many areas of the U.S. midwest this summer. It’s true, drought feeds upon itself, soils dry out, evaporation cannot occur, and precipitation begins to avoid these areas.

How serious is this situation? I would classify as “serious” at this point. In some areas of the cornbelt it’s a crisis. The bullseye is in the middle of the country, but has expanded out to the west, and also to the east right up here into southern New England. We have been lucky here in New England. We have been on the northeast periphery of the “ring of fire.” This brings bouts of precipitation from time to time from our northwest. Although not widespread, it has been barely enough water to keep things growing around here. We are still running about 7″ below normal for the year. It would of been much worse if we didn’t get some beneficial rains at the beginning of June.

So, will the drought worsen? Looking at some of the long range forecasts, I do believe it may get worse before we see any changes. Since last summer, the weather patterns have had a warm and dry bias to them. This looks to continue for the rest of the summer and into the upcoming autumn. Some computer models are hinting at an increase of wetness over parts of the east and into New England come August and into the upcoming fall. They are also hinting of a continuation of very warm conditions extending into the fall. At the same time, global patterns will be shifting into weak El Nino conditions this fall. This normally means wetter, cooler conditions for New England, especially for winter months. It will be interesting to follow the changes in the upcoming months. The bottom line is that if there is not a major climatic shift in the weather patterns come this winter, drought conditions across the country will become a full blown crisis. Next week, I will have my August outlook.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to do a tropical update. After a fast and furious start, with 4 named storms in June, the Atlantic Hurricane season has gone dormant. This does not mean the season is over. In fact, the season does not peak with activity until mid September! This is when ocean temperatures are at their warmest, and upper level winds are most favorable. It’s not unusual to have no named storms during the month of July. Currently, there is a plume of dust being blown off the Sahara Desert into the upper atmosphere, inhibiting development of tropical storms. This year, the hot spot for development appears to be close to the southeast atlantic coast of the U.S. I believe there will be an increase in activity come August and September. Sometimes, tropical storms punch into drought areas, bringing flooding rains, so we shall see. The next named storm to look out for is Ernesto.

Now for your outdoor weekly summer vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 6 out of 10. Not a complete washout, but certainly nothing like the stellar weather of last week. Look for mainly cloudy weather for the rest of your Monday, with the possibility of showers and possibly a thunderstorm later on today and into this evening. This may fowl up some outdoor evening activities. It will more muggy than it has been, with highs in the lower to mid 80’s, despite the lack of sun. After some evening showers, look for warm, muggy conditions tonight, with areas of fog, especially south of Boston towards the Cape.

Tuesday should feature some low clouds early, only to burn off to allow hot, muggy weather, with highs reaching the low 90’s. Watch for more thunderstorms to form during the mid afternoon. They should not be as severe as last Wednesday, but they still may pack a punch.

After the cold front moves through, look for cooler and much drier air to move into New England starting Tuesday night. Expect Wednesday to be the best day of the week, with low humidity, blue skies, and temperatures near 80. Thursday may start sunny, but look for increasing clouds during the afternoon, with possibly a shower by days end.

At this point, Friday through Sunday look iffy. There will be showers, especially on Friday, and then again over the weekend at some point. Best case scenerio is the showers to move through earlier enough on Saturday, to leave Sunday with clearing skies and pleasant temperatures. Let’s hope for that!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have my outlook for the month of August. I will also review the weather we had for July. I will also have a new current event  or a weather topic for the week. I will also have an update on the current drought. In the meantime, sometimes change is good, how boring it would be if the weather never changed!

Pete

First the heat wave…then relief! 7/16/12

If you have this week for vacation, I have good news for you! This summer, which has featured plenty of fine summery weather, will not disappoint this week. In fact, Boston is in the middle of what could turn out to be a 6 day heat wave, with many communities closing in on 8 straight days of 90+ degree heat starting back from last Wednesday! What is the longest heat wave ever recorded in Boston? I believe it was 11 straight days of 90 degrees or better set back in 1936. I don’t see that happening this time around, but 6 straight days is impressive for Boston’s standards.

So after a very sultry first two weeks of July, what does the rest of the month look like weatherwise? It now appears as if the summer patterns have settled in across the U.S. So what does that mean for New England? Well, so far, I have been pleased with my summer forecast for the area. Although the intense bubble of  extreme hot and dry weather has been alot closer to New England than first anticipated, we have been able to avoid the worst of it for the most part. But boy has it been close! Looking over things, it does appear that we will be close enough to this bubble of hot weather, that we too will likely end up with a warmer than normal summer, especially here in July.

What has been happening is pretty much exactly how I envisioned the summer to go. We are on the northeast periphery of this intense bubble of heat. The jet stream has been oscilating over our area, at times moving north of our area bringing the heat with it, and at other times sliding to our south, cooling us back to normal temperatures. Overall, you can expect this pattern to continue for the rest of the month, with times of hot weather, puncuated by cooler periods.

One thing that has surprised me has been the lack of precipitation so far this summer. I thought being on the ring of fire, that we would encounter more bouts of showers and thunderstorms to keep our lawns and gardens watered. However, so far, it has turned out to be a very dry summer, with July being the driest so far, with only about a quarter inch of rainfall recorded. Unfortanately, I expect this drier than normal pattern to continue for the foreseeable future, at least through the end of this month. Despite the beneficial rains of the early spring, we are once again, running a deficit of about 7″ of rain for the year.

Switching subjects briefly, I wanted to talk about a little critter which made its first appearance in my area yesterday. Actually, it is around this time every year that the Cicada bug shows up. Cicada bugs are of tropical origin, but also live in temperate zones when temperatures warm up enough. Cicada bugs are gruesome looking bugs that live up in our trees during the mid and latter half of our summer. They actually hibernate in the ground until the season begins to mature. When the average temperature reaches warm enough levels, they bore their way up through the ground, then fly into the trees to begin feeding and mating. It is their mating calls that you are most familiar with.

Over the next 6 weeks or so, you will hear them. For such as small bug, they make quite a racket. You will know it’s a male Cicada bug when you hear a loud buzzing noise coming from the trees lasting for about 30 seconds to a minute. The noise is a mating call produced by the male looking for a female. Some people call them locusts. Despite their guesome appearance, Cicada bugs are by in large, harmless to humans.

Now onto your weekly outdoor activity/vacation forecast. I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. This will be a great week for vacation weather! Expect sunny and hot weather for the rest of your Monday. There will be a few clouds from time to time, otherwise expect tremperature to reach the lower to mid 90’s in most areas. If your lucky, there may be a slight sea breeze at the beaches, providing some relief.

It will be stuffy tonight, and without any a.c. you will have a difficult time sleeping, unless you like uncomfortably warm, muggy weather, with no wind, then tonight is your night to shine! Low temperatures will not get much lower than 75 in Boston, maybe upper 60’s in the suburbs.

Watch for Tuesday to be as hot as the heat wave in June, with widespread temperatures of 95 to 100 degrees across the area. Tuesday night will be another very warm night, with lows in the 70’s very late at night.

Look for the heat wave to continue into Wednesday, with highs in the lower 90’s once again. The difference is that there will be a gusty thunderstorm passing through many communities, especially from the Boston area and to the south coast. This will mark the leading edge of cooler and much drier air coming into New England from Canada, ending the heat wave.

Look for temperatures to be a bout 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the lower 80’s Thursday, and upper 70’s to near 80 on Friday…with low humidity! It will feel refreshing out there! Right now, Saturday and Sunday looks like it will feature sunny weather, with highs warming back up into the mid 80’s!

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will feature a segment on tropical storms and hurricanes. I will also let you know whether we have any more heat waves on the way for the rest of July. I will also have a new weather topic or newsworthy item concerning climate or the earth. You can always e-mail directly with any questions at info@hrappliance.com. In the meantime, in typical fashion, Mother Nature is out to please everyone this week. If you love heat waves and summer weather, now is the time to get out and enjoy! If you hang in there until Thursday, you will be happy too, with cooler more comfortable air greeting you in the morning!

Pete

Seasonable is reasonable…7/9/12

There’s nothing worse than having a nasty summer time cold. This is  especially true when it’s sunny and hot out, and your friends and family are wondering where you are during the beautiful summer weather we’ve been having. This was my fate for the past five days…miserable!  Anyway, I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy the beautiful weather we’ve been having over the last week or so.

As we move towards the middle of July, we are moving towards what is climatalogically the hottest time of the year. The period from about July 1st to about August 15th typically brings us our warmest temperatures of the year. According to some of the latest long range guidance, this year will not disappoint. Already, areas not too far to our southwest have been suffering through one of the worst heat waves in recent memory…maybe as far back in time to 1936. I can never remember so many major cities hitting 100 + degrees for so many days in a row, for so early in the season, as this year.

It’s been unprecedented. Chicago has hit 100 degrees 6 times this summer, with most other days all in the 90’s.  Washington D.C. hit 100 degrees 4 days in a row, with a all time record tying 106 degrees reached this past weekend. Let’s not forget about St. Louis, ground zero for this heat wave, where most of the summer temperatures have been in the 100’s, with an all time hottest day of 108 degrees! Adding to the misery is wide spread rolling blackouts, severe storms toppling down trees, melting blacktop and people coming down with heat stroke!

So what’s next? Thankfully, the pattern has undergone a bit of a change over the weekend. It has now reconfigured itself, to whereas the intense heat wave has been temporarily squashed to areas further out west and to the deep south. This leaves New England in a zone of fair and seasonable temperatures for this upcoming week. What is seasonable for this time of year? Temperatures in the low 80’s is the average for around here. Further south, the average is still close to 90, but that’s alot better than in the 100’s!

So far here in New England, we’ve been able to avoid the core of the intense heat. However, as the summer season matures, and the ocean temperatures continue warm, I am concerned about even us here in New England going through a very hot period, maybe even some record heat arriving here for the second part of July. The intense heat just got squashed, it did not entirely go away, not this time of the year.

In fact, as mentioned earlier, some of the long range guidance has some of this intense heat coming back with a vengeance and spreading into New England starting sometime next week. The all time record high temperature recorded at Boston’s Logan Airport is 104 degrees set way back on July 4th, 1911. With all of the records broken in many other cities in the east this summer, I would not be surprised if we challenged this record somewhere during the week of the 15th to the 22nd…so be prepared!

Now for the weekly weather topic. Many times during the fall and winter months you hear meteorologists talking about radiational cooling. What does this mean? Radiational cooling occurs every night, as the heat from the sun during the day escapes back into space at night. This is especially true when we have clear skies and light winds.  As the nights grow longer during the fall and winter months, the heat from the day has more time to escape into space, thus providing even cooler nights.

This effect is intensified over the rural countryside communities, and especially low lying, valley locations such as Norwood, Taunton, Bedford, and towns such as Orange, Mass. These areas cool down much quicker than urban areas such as the city of Boston, because of radiational cooling. In Boston, the effect is the opposite, where we tend to remain warmer than outlying communities because of what’s known as the urban heat island effect. Here, the heat from the day is trapped by buildings and blacktop, and has a much tougher time radiating out into space, sometimes keeping the city 15 or 20 degrees warmer!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. I would of given a 10 out of 10, but there is some uncertainty for next weekend. For the period of today through Thursday, look for mostly to at times partly sunny skies, with light winds and seasonable temperatures. Watch for high temperatures to be mainly in the low to mid 80’s, except upper 70’s right at the ocean with daily seabreezes. Expect clear, comfortable nights with lows in the mid 50’s across the suburbs, to lower to mid 60’s in the cities. Excellent sleeping weather!

For the period of Friday through Sunday, look for the humidity to be on the increase, as the sultry heat wave boundary starts to inch closer to New England. At some point, possibly on Saturday, we may have some showers and thunderstorms push through the area. If this area moves off to our north, Sunday may break out with some hazy sunshine with hotter temperatures, with highs nearing 90. If this wavy weather front gets hung up across the area, it may be unsettled into Sunday. Right now, I’m going with the warmer, sunnier scenerio for Sunday. After that, heat wave conditions may settle into New England starting next week, so enjoy the cooler weather this week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have the latest update for you regarding the possibility of intense heat arriving here in New England. Next week, I will either have a new weather topic, or I will talk about a part of the country which is experiencing severe or unusual weather this week. In the meantime, be thankful Mother Nature is being reasonable with seasonable temperatures this week, beacause as we know, there’s no reasoning with Mother Nature!

Pete